MATT BOYD (L) vs. REYNALDO LOPEZ (R

Boyd (2-1, 3.16 ERA) won his latest start, holding the Boston Red Sox to three runs on three hits in seven innings on Tuesday and matches up well vs the Red Sox lineup. He credits attacking and finding the strike zone early as keys to his success and gets my support here. 

DETROIT is 11-6 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season.

CHI WHITE SOX are 8-26  against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons. 

MLB team (DETROIT) - with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games, with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.000 the last 5 games are 42-17 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB team (DETROIT) - terrible offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 6.20 or less) (AL), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season are 35-13 for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Tigers to win on the ML

 Rays RH Tyler Glasnow (4-0, 1.53 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Chris Sale (0-4, 7.43)

Glasnow's breakout has been a big reason why the Rays are off to one of the best starts in baseball. He has 29 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, BoSox starter Chris Sale despite of looking decent in his last  start, delivering 5 innings of work still does not have a win this season, as he owns a 0-4 record along with a bloated 7.43 ERA.  The star hurler just does not look himself yet and until he turns the corner is fade material. SALE is 0-5 ( against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. (Team's Record) 

BOSTON is 2-8  against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.BOSTON is 3-9 against the money line in day games this season.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start), stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season are 62-32 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the TB Rays to win on the ML

 Glasnow's breakout has been a big reason why the Rays are off to one of the best starts in baseball. He has 29 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings of work and is extremely reliable. Meanwhile, Sale the BoSoxs southpaw starter, showed  some progress last time out in what was arguably his best start of the year, as he struck out 10 and allowed two runs over five innings against the Tigers. Sale's goal against Tampa Bay will be to pitch deep into a game for the first time this season and Im betting he does that. These teams took part in a 2-1 game yesterday with TB winning and similar type score is a high probability again. Note: TAMPA BAY is 20-6 UNDER after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.8 rpg scored.

Under is 6-1-1 in Rays last 8 games vs. a left-handed starterUnder is 18-7-1 in Rays last 26 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 33-16-3 in Rays last 52 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 10-3-2 in Glasnows last 15 starts overall.Under is 3-1-1 in Glasnows last 5 starts on grass.Under is 3-1-1 in Glasnows last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Glasnows last 8 starts vs. American League East.Under is 5-2-1 in Glasnows last 8 road starts.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Boston.

Play UNDER 

CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. DAVID PRICE (L)

Price Bostons starting lefty held his own in last weekend's start at Tropicana Field, holding the Rays to five hits and two runs over five innings while notching 10 strikeouts and here at home Im betting he will even be better and gets my support as chalkvs a team that has lost 5 of their L/7 games. PRICE is 18-5  against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  62% or better ) . (Team's Record)

PRICE is 21-5  against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

 Red Sox are 9-0 on the ML  in franchise history with David Price at home when he averaged at least 4.20 pitches per batter in his last start.

The Red Sox are 26-0 on the ML L/26 opportunities as a 130-plus favorite off a game as a favorite of 250 or less in which they scored first, trailed, and won and it is before the All-Star break.

Rays are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. American League East.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 8 runs or more are 32-79 L/22 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the ML

Yankees LH James Paxton (2-2, 3.10 ERA) vs. Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 3.66)

Yankees starter Paxton is in top form  has been brilliant  in successive starts, recording 12 strikeouts without allowing a run against both the Red Sox and Royals.  Meanwhile, Bumgarner the Giants starter has also pitched decently, but whats troubling is his teams lack of run support for him, as he has received just 10 total runs of support in 6 starts.  Im betting things wont get much better for him here tonight. 

Yanks are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games on grass.Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.

Giants are 0-6 in Bumgarners last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.Giants are 0-5 in Bumgarners last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning recordGiants are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 Friday games.Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

MLB  teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a combined score of 4 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more are 13-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML

MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. TREVOR CAHILL (R)

Tanaka bounced back from a loss to pitch seven  strong innings of one-run ball vs the Royals in his last trip to the  hill  and has  lasted into the sixth inning in four of his five efforts and looks to be getting stronger . Meanwhile, Cahill his Angels pitching opponent , has some troubling numbers, that indicate teams are seeing the ball well against him. Note: Cahill gave up only eight homers in 110 innings last year but has already equalled that total in 26 1/3 innings  this year. The Yankees despite of being banged up have enough talent in their offensive lineup to really put a deep ball hurt on Cahill and the Halos, making them my choice here on the ML. 

LA ANGELS are 0-9  against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better over the last 2 seasons. 

NY YANKEES are 23-9  against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. 

TANAKA is 3-0 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 1.59 and a WHIP of 0.958 and his team has won all 6 of his career starts vs the Halos. 

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML

TREVOR BAUER (R) vs. GERRIT COLE (R)

Houstons starter tonight Cole, finished fifth in the 2018 American League Cy Young Award voting with an 15-5 record and 2.88 ERA, is off to just a 1-3 start with a 5.22 ERA this season. Thanks to his reputation and that of his teammates he is still listed a hefty favorite despite of going against a top tier hurler in the Tribes Trevor Bauer.Bauer (2-1, 2.20), and finished sixth in last year's Cy Young voting behind Cole, is a perfect 7-0 with a 3.18 ERA in eight career starts against the Astros and gets my support here tonight on a value line. 

HINCH is 6-15  against the money line vs. struggling power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game as the manager of HOUSTON .

Play on Cleveland to win on the ML

Dodgers RH Walker Buehler (2-0, 5.40 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Cole Hamels (3-0, 2.77)

Dodgers lost last night to the Cubs, but Im betting they bounce back here in this spot and make it 10 wins in 12 games . Buehler had eight strikeouts while limiting Cincinnati to an unearned run and three hits over 6 1/3 innings on Wednesday and gets my support.  Look for a LA offence that  averages a National League-best 5.52 runs per game to buoy their pitcher and deliver the cash to us . 

HAMELS the Phillies starter  is 23-31 against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record)

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - good offensive team (4.7  or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season are 20-50 L/22 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the ML

MERRILL KELLY (R) vs. JORDAN LYLES (R)

LYLES the Pirates starter is 13-41 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record) LYLES is 2-4 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 6.80 and a WHIP of 1.762. The DBacks  have faired well here in Pittsburgh over the last few seasons winning 7 of their 8 games, and get my support again on a value line.

 ARIZONA is 30-17  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons

ARIZONA is 24-13 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons. 

MLB   favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20) -NL, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are  12-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to win on the ML

ERVIN SANTANA (R) vs. JOHN MEANS (L)

The  struggling  Orioles smashed  the White Sox 9-1 last night and have an edge tonight vs a team that is just as bad as themselves.  "Means is going to make a lot of starts," Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said of the 25-year-old rookie. "It's something we're going to play with because I do like John in the rotation. He's pitching really well and deserves to stay in the rotation." Means pitched well in his last start, permitting one run on four hits in five innings of a 4-0 setback at Boston on April 14.

White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

White Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

White Sox are 17-42 in their last 59 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

White Sox are 6-18 in their last 24 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.

Home team is 7-1 in Fairchilds last 8 games behind home plate vs. ChicagoHome team is 22-6 in Fairchilds last 28 games behind home plate vs. Baltimore.

White Sox are 12-4 in their last 16 games with Fairchild behind home plate.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the ML

IVAN NOVA (R) vs. ANDREW CASHNER (R)

The Chicago White Sox pounded the Orioles yesterday 12-2 and Im betting they come out here and get the job done again behind a up-trending offence. Note:  Baltimore is just 1-10  this season at home and now have dropped four in a row -- losing a three-game weekend series to the Minnesota Twins in Baltimore before the White Sox came in. 

The Pale Hose starter Nova is 8-4 in his career against the Orioles with a 4.98 ERA. He's made 17 starts and pitched in 18 contests and get my support here today.NOVA is 23-8  against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 since 1997. (Team's Record)

CHI WHITE SOX are 10-5 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons like  the Os starting hulrer Cashner. 

The Orioles are 0-28 on the ML when their opponent's starter is a righty and has a strike-per-ball ratio greater than two on the season.

Play on the White Sox to win on the ML

Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 2.63) starts against the Rockies. He is coming off a strong effort against the San Francisco Giants in which he allowed two runs in 5 2/3 innings. Note: The Nationals are 0-13 UNDER in franchise history with Jeremy Hellickson when he averaged fewer than 4.1 pitches per batter in his last start. Meanwhile, Colorado continues to get good starting pitching, and is expected to activate Anderson for this start. He had arm inflammation , but now better should provide his team with a stable performance. He's 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts against the Nationals for his career. HELLICKSON is 10-2 UNDER in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.4 rpg. 

HELLICKSON is 12-3 UNDER  in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

COLORADO is 22-9 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.1 rpg. 

Under is 7-3 in Nationals last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 18-8-2 in Nationals last 28 Monday games.Under is 6-0 in Hellicksons last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0 in Hellicksons last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.Under is 10-1 in Hellicksons last 11 road starts.Under is 8-1 in Hellicksons last 9 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 8-2 in Hellicksons last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 16-5 in Hellicksons last 21 starts on grass.Under is 16-5 in Hellicksons last 21 starts overall.

Under is 5-1-1 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Under is 8-2-1 in Rockies last 11 overall.Under is 8-2-1 in Rockies last 11 on grass.Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 home games.Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 vs. National League East.Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 19-6-2 in Rockies last 27 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 23-8-2 in Rockies last 33 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 7-3-1 in Rockies last 11 during game 1 of a series.

Play UNDER 

ADRIAN HOUSER (R) vs. JACK FLAHERTY (R)

Flaherty allowed five runs on nine hits to Milwaukee last week -- including homers to Lorenzo Cain and Yasmani Grandal in just  2 2/3 innings to take the loss. Im betting the Brewers matchup well against Cardinals starter and get my support again here on a value line. Note: ight-hander Adrian Houser, who will make his first career start in the majors in place of the injured Freddy Peralta (shoulder). The 26-year-old has pitched well with Triple-A San Antonio this season, posting a 1-0 mark with a 1.10 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in three starts (16 1/3 frames).

The Brewers are 8-0 on the ML on the road after a game as a home dog in which they had more strikeouts than hits.

Brewers are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Brewers are 17-5 in their last 22 Monday games.Brewers are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. National League Central.Brewers are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Brewers are 56-20 in their last 76 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Cardinals are 2-8 in Flahertys last 10 starts.Cardinals are 2-8 in Flahertys last 10 starts on grass.Cardinals are 1-4 in Flahertys last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-5 in Flahertys last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-5 in Flahertys last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-4 in Flahertys last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.

Brewers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in St. Louis.Brewers are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.Cardinals are 2-5 in Flahertys last 7 starts vs. Brewers.

MLB favorites with a money line of -150 or more (ST LOUIS) - excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season are 36-50 L/5 seasons .

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ST LOUIS) - with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 17-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the ML

MAX FRIED (L) vs. SHANE BIEBER (R)

The Braves starter today Fried worked 16 1/3 innings before allowing his first earned run this season. The lefty's velocity was down during his most recent start, but he still managed to complete six innings . But that downgrade in velocity is a concern, and gives me cause in fading him here vs a streaking Cleveland team. Meanwhile,  the Tribes starter Bieber didn’t have his best stuff on Tuesday in Seattle, but he battled through six-plus innings and gave up just one run on four hits. He’s throwing his slider at a higher rate this year, and hitters are just 4-for-29 against the offering which is a plus here vs a Braves group that prefers straight up heat. 

Cleveland has the edge  this Sunday night and Im recommending we take them on the ML. 

Braves are 17-36 in their last 53 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 17-37 in their last 54 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 5-17 in their last 22 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games.Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games.Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games on grass.

Indians are 4-0 in Biebers last 4 starts.Indians are 4-0 in Biebers last 4 starts on grass.Indians are 7-1 in Biebers last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.Indians are 6-1 in Biebers last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Indians are 5-1 in Biebers last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.Indians are 5-1 in Biebers last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - good NL offensive team (4.7  or more /game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are 6-39 /5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to win on the ML

AARON SANCHEZ (R) vs. BRETT ANDERSON (L)

As  Left-hander Brett Anderson (3-0, 2.63) is in top tier form, and gives us a strong opportunity to cash a ticket here this afternoon in Oakland.

SANCHEZ  the Jays starter is 0-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 10.80 and a WHIP of 2.401.

OAKLAND is 21-9  against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. 

The Athletics are 17-0 on the ML off a game as a favorite in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter and it is not a series opener. Toronto is 0-18 ML as a dog of more than 130 in the last game of a road series when they are off a game as a dog in which they had more team-left-on-base.

Play on the Oakland As to win on the ML

DAVID PRICE (L) vs. TYLER GLASNOW (R)

The Rays’ starter today vs the BoSox,  Tyler Glasnow, has been brilliant and over powering  since being acquired by the Rays in the  Chris Archer deal at last seasons deadline. The righty hurler in 80 innings  of top tier work owns a solid  4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.01. He offers is alot value here on this line as the public gravitates to the BoSox because of them grabbing the first two games of this series. Meanwhile, the BoSox starter Price, goes against a strong LHP hitting team in the Rays. The Rays have cashed 60% of theirL/52 vs southpaw starters.TAMPA BAY is 15-10  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 2-7  against the money line in day games this season. 

Red Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 road games.Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.

Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 Sunday games.Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Rays are 14-4 in their last 18 games following a loss.Rays are 13-4 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Rays are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Rays are 20-7 in their last 27 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rays are 17-6 in their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Rays are 46-19 in their last 65 home games.Rays are 28-12 in their last 40 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rays are 42-18 in their last 60 overall.Rays are 54-24 in their last 78 games on astroturf.Rays are 26-12 in their last 38 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rays are 38-18 in their last 56 during game 3 of a series.Rays are 4-0 in Glasnows last 4 starts.

Play on TB to win on the ML

RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)

Porcello has struggled out of the gate this season, but is still a viable hurler, who has pitched well at Tropicana in his career, going 8-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 15 starts. Meanwhile, TBs Morton who got off to fast start this season looked mortal after is off his shortest outing of the season where he went just 4 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays last time out. 

Value here on a Red Sox team that will be woken up out of their World Series hangover slumber vs a strong looking Rays team. 

BOSTON is 12-7 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP  2.000 or more over his last 3 starts are 17-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Red Sox on the ML

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. DREW SMYLY (L)

With a 2-1 loss at Oakland on Wednesday, Houston saw its 10-game winning streak come to an end, but that game was a blip on an upward momentum chart and Im betting they rebound in a big way here today with Verlander on the hill for them.

DREW SMYLY the Texas starter is 0-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.741 he has seen his team lose all 4 of his career starts vs the ASTROS.

MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (HOUSTON) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season, after scoring 1 run or less are 42-1 L/5 seasons winning by an average of 3.7 rpg.

Play on Houston on the -1.5 RL

ZACH EFLIN (R) vs. KYLE FREELAND (L)

Colorado will send left-hander Kyle Freeland to the mound to face righty Zach Eflin in the opener of the series.

Eflin (2-1, 3.94) was  was hit hard in a 10-3 loss at Miami on Saturday. He gave up six runs on 10 hits in just four innings. He is 1-2 in three career starts against Colorado and sports a 9.20 ERA and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well vs the Rockies and is fade material here today on the road. I know Colorados Freelend has had some issues thanks to blistering, but he is said to be good to go and when hes on he is hard beat.FREELAND is 16-8 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Phillies are 1-7 in Eflins last 8 road starts.Phillies are 1-8 in Eflins last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Phillies are 0-4 in Eflins last 4 starts vs. National League West.

Rockies are 7-0 in Freelands last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Rockies are 7-0 in Freelands last 7 Thursday starts.Rockies are 8-1 in Freelands last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are 7-1 in Freelands last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.Rockies are 6-1 in Freelands last 7 starts vs. National League East.Rockies are 13-3 in Freelands last 16 home starts.Rockies are 22-6 in Freelands last 28 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Rockies are 13-4 in Freelands last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are 12-4 in Freelands last 16 starts with 4 days of rest.Rockies are 23-8 in Freelands last 31 starts on grass.Rockies are 23-9 in Freelands last 32 starts.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 27-44 L/22 seasons for a long term go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado Rockies to win on the ML

Homer Bailey (1-1, 5.29 ERA) makes his fourth start for the Royals, who signed him as a free agent after he was 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA in 20 starts for the Reds last season. Im betting a hot hitting NYY team off a sweep vs the BoSox to come out here and really rack up some runs vs Bailey which will help this score get eclipsed. Note: Bailey is 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees and both of those outings occurred in New York with a combined average of 11 and 14 runs scored in the two games.  He is backed by a bullpen that has garnered a 6.37 ERA this season. 

Play OVER

MATT HARVEY (R) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)

Harvey  the Angels  starter pitched to a 5.93 ERA over his last 2 1/2 seasons in New York and Im betting things wont get much better for him here tonight in Texas.HARVEY is 9-22 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game since 1997. (Team's Record)

LA ANGELS are 0-7 ( against the money line after 2 or more consecutive road games this season.

The Rangers are 15-0 on the ML in the second game of a home series when they are off a game as a dog and their opponent's starter has a strikeout-per-walk ratio less than two on the season.

NBA underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA ANGELS) - team with a terrible OBP (.310 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 5 games are 16-53 L/5 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas on the ML

Two quality hurlers go head to head today, but the value attached to road dog makes the Mets my choice this afternoon. I know Wheeler has been subpar out of the gate, but his stuff continues on a upward trajectory. Wheeler the Mets starter this afternoon is 3-0 with a 3.96 ERA lifetime in Philadelphia and 4-1 with a 3.36 ERA in 10 total starts against the Phillies. Meanwhile Phillies starter Arrieta is 2-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 10 career outings against the Mets.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL), after scoring 10 runs or more are 17-35 L/5seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Mets to win on the ML

Two struggling AL rivals go head to head tonight in NY. The Yankees thanks to a lineup dealing with injuries has faltered out of the gate, while the Red Sox deal with a nasty world series hangover. In todays matchup the Yankees have the advantage of playing at home and another edge against a top tier hurler in Chris Sale that is probably pitching his absolute worst at the moment. Sale has said he cant remember being this inconsistent with his location in his career. With that said Im betting Yankees starter Paxton who is 2-0 along with a 2.13 ERA in 4 career starts vs the BoSox to get us the win here tonight.

BOONE is 17-3 against the money line after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse as the manager of NY YANKEES

MLB  favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season, playing on Tuesday are 17-39 L/5 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Yankees

The Mariners are off being swept by the Houston Astros and will be primed for a bounce back win here tonight at home vs the visiting Cleveland Indians.

Note: Bauer the Tribes starter is just 1-4 with a 4.60 ERA in eight career appearances against Seattle, including seven starts.

The Mariners are 13-0 SU in the first game of a series with no rest when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a game as a dog when they are facing a team that has lost at least their last two games. 

SEATTLE is 9-1 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.

 MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more are 18-48 L/5 seasons for ago against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle to win on the  ML

GERRIT COLE (R) vs. MARCO GONZALES (L)

Houstons Cole (0-2, 3.32 ERA) is still searching for his first victory of the season, while Seattles starter  Gonzales (4-0, 3.16) has won each of his starts and offers us value on the runline .

SEATTLE is 11-3  against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

MLB team (SEATTLE) - excellent speed team - averaging 1 or more SB's/game on the season, on a streak where they have hit a home run in 10 consecutive games and are 48-17 L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

MLB underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line 190 to +165) (SEATTLE) - good hitting team (AVG .285 or better ) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL 38-6 L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Seattle on the RL

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. FELIX HERNANDEZ (R)

Verlander the Astros hurler is a top tier hurler, but the way the Mariners are hitting scoring 66 runs in 7 games going into Friday nights action, any hurler they face right now could end up as cannon fodder. With that said, there is value with the home dog tonight. 

Mariners are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. American League West.Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.Mariners are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.Mariners are 14-2 in their last 16 games on grass.Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Mariners are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. 

Astros are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings.

HOUSTON is 12-18 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  62%or better ) over the last 2 seasons. 

SEATTLE is 8-1  against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this seasonSEATTLE is 11-1  against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. 

MLB  team (SEATTLE) - excellent speed team - averaging 1 or more SB's/game on the season, on a streak where they have hit a home run in 10 consecutive games are 48-15 L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Seattle to win on the ML

CHAD BETTIS (R) vs. DREW POMERANZ (L)

Pomeranz has never lost to the Rockies, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four meetings, including two starts. He's struck out 18 in 14 innings in those games, allowing seven hits, all singles and gets the nod again in this spot play.While winless, the San Francisco lefty has limited the Rays and Dodgers to a total of four runs in nine innings in his two starts. Bettis, the Rockies starter on the other hand, has been roughed up for 12 runs (11 earned) in 8 1/3 innings.

BOCHY is 33-15  against the money line in home games after shutting out a division rival as the manager of SAN FRANCISCO.

Rockies are 3-13 in their last 16 overall.Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.Rockies are 1-8 in their last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Rockies are 1-10 in their last 11 games following a loss.Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. National League West.Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Rockies are 0-8 in their last 8 games on grass.

Play on SF Giants to win on the ML

JAKE ARRIETA (R) vs. SANDY ALCANTARA (R)

Friday's pitching matchup features a pair of right-handers: Miami's Sandy Alcantara (1-0, 1.50 ERA) against Philadelphia's Jake Arrieta (1-1, 2.77).Friday's pitching matchup features a pair of right-handers: Alcantara is overpowering at times with a fastball that averages 95.8 mph and has hit 100 mph and gets my support here on a +1.5 runline. Meanwhile, Arrietas looks to be down trending, as his ERA has gone up in each of his last three seasons (from 3.10 to 3.53 to 3.96) and in his most recent start, he got just one swing-and-miss in seven innings of a loss to the Minnesota Twins and is fade material here in this spot play. 

PHILADELPHIA is 11-18  against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 season.

MIAMI is 15-7  against the money line in home games after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span over the last 3 seasons. 

MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (MIAMI) - below average NL hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more), with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse on the season are 43-10 L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Miami Marlins on the RL

DAVID HESS (R) vs. EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L)

Red sox Starter left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez  has struggled out of the gate this season, but Im betting he will right his ship here against the Baltimore Orioles tonight a team my power ranking suggest he matches up well against.

 Red Sox are 0-16 under with Eduardo Rodriguez when their opponent is averaging more than 7.6 strike outs a game and they lost in his last start with a combined average of 6.6 rpg scored.

 BOSTON is 22-9 UNDER  at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 3 seasons. BALTIMORE is 17-6 UNDER  with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings over the last 3 seasons

MLB Road teams (BALTIMORE) - after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 5 games are 116-59 L/22 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

JOE MUSGROVE (R) vs. JOSE QUINTANA (L)

Jose Quintana (0-1, 10.29 ERA), who will also make his third appearance (second start) of the campaign is coming off an ugly start in which he gave up eight runs, all earned, on eight hits in three innings against the Milwaukee Brewers.  Im betting Quintana will be primed to bounce back. Cubs are 6-0 on the ML in franchise history with Jose Quintana when he went fewer than five five innings in his last start .

Quintana is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts against the Pirates. He has 29 strikeouts in 28 innings.

MUSGROVE the Pirate starter is 1-12  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 since 1997. (Team's Record) 

I know the Cubs have struggled but tonight they get my support. Note: MADDON is 23-5 against the money line in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games as the manager of CHICAGO CUBS. 

MLB Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite, a terrible team (38% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 34-11 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 8-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cubs on the ML

AARON BROOKS (R) vs. DYLAN BUNDY (R

Baltimore hasn't done much on offense the past two games, scoring a total of five runs while watching Oakland's offensive fireworks. Im betting on the Orioles offense to continue to falter, but today Im expecting their pitching to hold up enough to limit the As offence as well. Bundy the Orioles starter is 2-0 with a 3.60 career ERA in four appearances (three starts) against the A's. Note:BALTIMORE is 27-12 UNDER  in home games with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.2 rpg scored.

Play UNDER 

JAMES PAXTON (L) vs. COLLIN MCHUGH (R)

Paxton is 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA over 12 career starts against the Astros and won all four starts against Houston last season while pitching for the Seattle Mariners  and is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA in seven starts at Minute Maid Park and get smy support here in the road underdog role. PAXTON is 11-3   against the money line in road games when working on 5 or 6 days rest since 1997. (Team's Record) 

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games are 18-41 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the moneyline 

A combination of a high scoring game yesterday between these teams and a couple of struggling starting pitchers, has made this Total a just a bit bloated, with value to the under making this a viable investment opportunity. 

HELLICKSON the Nats starter is 16-3 UNDER  vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored and is 12-2 UNDER vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)   with a combined average of 7.8 rg scored.HELLICKSON is 9-1 UNDER  when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

WASHINGTON is 21-9 UNDER as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 7.5 rpg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Giants have totaled just five runs in their starter Rodriguez's first  two starts and im betting they have issues scoring again vs N. Margevicius the Padres starter. These two hurlers faced each other already this season, with Margevicius getting the better of the stats but Rodriguez taking the victory when the Giants found a way the promised land by a  narrow 3-2 count. I expect another hard fought affair, but this time for the Padres to get the win. 

The Giants won the last game in this series, but  SAN DIEGO is 28-23  against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons

The Giants are 0-11 L/11 on the ML in the last game of a series when playing a team that has a better record.

Play on San Diego to win on the ML

Bauer the Indians starter carries a streak of 10 hitless innings into his third start of the season, a Wednesday afternoon tilt at Detroit, but all good bad things must come to an end. With that said, it must be noted that Tigers starter BOYD is 6-0 against the money line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  and is  s 6-0  against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  and also s 9-0  against the money line in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) .

GARDENHIRE is 12-7  against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 as the manager of DETROIT.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CLEVELAND) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base are 16-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit Tigers to win on the ML

Rangers LH Mike Minor (1-1, 4.63 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (1-1, 9.31)

MINOR the Rangers starter is 2-0 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 1.23 and a WHIP of 1.022. GREINKE is 3-6 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 2.88 and a WHIP of 1.092.

GREINKE DBacks starter  is 50-66  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) TEXAS is 21-10 L/31 against the money line in road games after scoring 2 runs or less 3 straight games. 

Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +115 to +160) (ARIZONA) - with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 4-36 on the RL L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams (ARIZONA) - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 16-45 SU for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas on the  RL

Mariners LH Marco Gonzales (3-0, 3.20 ERA) vs. Royals RH Jakob Junis (1-0, 4.63)

Starter Marco Gonzales and the Seattle Mariners are in red hot form . The Mariners have scored at least five runs in 11 of their 12 games and are the first team in the majors to reach 10 victories. GONZALES is 14-3  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Meanwhile, Junis the Royals starter is solid hurler, but unfortunately he is backed by a struggling bullpen. Note: The Royals have lost seven straight games, and  thanks to a under performing bullpen . Through nine games this season, the Royals bullpen has allowed 27  earned runs on 36 hits in 27 1/3 innings of shoddy work garnering a ugly 8.89 ERA. 

 Royals are 0-19 SU off a game as a dog in which they held a multiple-run lead and it is before the All-Star break which was the case yesterday in a 13-5 loss.

KANSAS CITY is 7-27 against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the ML

Dodgers RH Ross Stripling (0-0, 2.31 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Dakota Hudson (0-1, 5.40)

The Cards beat the Dodgers last night and Im betting on St.Louis turning the trick again. I know the Dodgers are strong bunch, but hey dont underestimate the ability of the Cards here in their own back yard. It must be noted Hudson the Cards starter has some nasty stuff, and  received Pitcher of the Year honors in the Texas League in 2017 and the Pacific Coast League last season, and is under rated and a solid underdog in this spot. Meanwhile, Dodgers starter Stripling is 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA in five appearances (two starts) against St. Louis. 

ST LOUIS is 17-4  against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

MLB team (LA DODGERS) - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 16-45 L/5 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on St.Louis to win on the ML

Twins RH Kyle Gibson (0-0, 9.64 ERA) vs. Mets RH Jacob deGrom (2-0, 0.00)

DeGrom has pitched well out of the gate , picking up where he left off last season, but according to my matchup pitcher vs batting order stats does not matchup well here.DEGROM is 5-10  against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  and is 2-9   against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

CALLAWAY is 5-16 ( against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of NY METS. 

MLB teams (NY METS) - team who had a poor bullpen last season with an ERA of 4.50 or worse, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last 5 games are 27-66 L/22 seasons for ago against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Twins RL 

Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (1-0, 2.84 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Aaron Nola (1-0, 7.00)

Nola had a rocky opening start, but according to my pitcher vs batting order stats (power rankings) matches up well vs the Nationals.Nola, went 3-1 with a 2.14 ERA against the Nationals in 2018 and gets the nod here.  Meanwhile, despite of Starasburg being a top tier hurler, their are issues supporting him from the bullpen. Note: Washington's relievers have surrendered at least one run in all but two games and has recorded  a major league-worst 10.17 bullpen ERA. 

NOLA is 14-0  against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

MLB Road teams (WASHINGTON) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities ARE 12-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to win on the ML

Halos star Trout is red hot , has has carried his team to wins in the final three games of their last  series. Tonight Im betting they make it four straight wins as the Milwaukee Brewers visit for a three-game series beginning Monday. Also Angels starter  Cahill is 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA in 13 career games against the Brewers, with 12 coming in relief and is well prepared to keep his ERA down in this spot vs the Brewers. 

The Angels are 17-0 L/17 on the ML after a game as a home favorite in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA ANGELS) - allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less are 36-17 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Angels to win on the ML

 Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (1-0, 1.69 ERA) vs. Royals RH Homer Bailey (0-0, 5.40)

I know the Royals have been giving up alot of runs in the early part of this campaign, but Brad Keller, Jakob Junis, Jorge Lopez and Homer Bailey -- have a combined ERA of 3.86. Its the bullpen that has struggled but Im betting they will eventually jump out of this slump and tonight do well enough to hold off a Seattle team that is in top form offensively . Right now because of the Royals bullpen issues we are getting value on this line to the under. Meanwhile, the Mariners starting pitchers are 8-0 and have combined for a 3.50 ERA over 64 1/3 innings. Their staff ERA is 3.83 and Im also betting on more of the same tonight in a game I have pegged to stay UNDER the total. 

Under is 9-3-1 in Hernandezs last 13 starts during game 1 of a series.Under is 8-3-1 in Royals last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Under is 8-3-1 in Royals last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Under is 6-1 in Hernandezs last 7 road starts vs. Royals.SEATTLE is 33-18 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored. 

MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher (SEATTLE) - on a streak where they have hit a home run in 10 consecutive games against opponent after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base are 46-13 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-0, 2.08 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Miles Mikolas (0-1, 7.20)

LA played last night in Colorado and then got on a plane to St.Louis, and will now be a on tired legs in the fist game of their series vs the Cards which puts them at a disadvantage. 

Dodgers are 0-4 in Ryus last 4 starts vs. Cardinals.Cardinals are 7-0 in Mikolas' last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Cardinals are 7-1 in Mikolas' last 8 home starts.

MIKOLAS is 23-8  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) IKOLAS is 25-9 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

ST LOUIS is 16-4  against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

MIKE is 32-18  against the money line in night games as the manager of ST LOUIS.

MLB team (LA DODGERS) - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 16-44 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on St.Louis Cards to win on the ML

Reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell is set to start Monday's game for the Tampa Bay Rays. The Top tier southpaw Snell is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts in 13 innings this season, with just three walks and 16 strikeouts and gets my support here this afternoon vs the very inconsistent Chicago White Sox. 

Rays are 5-0 in Snells last 5 road starts.Rays are 5-0 in Snells last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Rays are 7-0 in Snells last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Snell recorded 13 strikeouts in his most recent start, dominating the Colorado Rockies for seven innings of two-hit, shutout ball on April 2. Note:The Rays are 15-0 L15 on the ML with Blake Snell starts when he had a WHIP of less than 1.00 and threw fewer than 110 pitches in his last start.

MLB Home teams (CHI WHITE SOX) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 11+ losses in last 15 games against opponent first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 20+ wins in last 30 game are 10-42 L/22 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Yes, we have to lay some lumber here but its worth it considering the matchup. Just a quick reminder on the myth of consistently attacking MLB dogs. Note:  In the last 14 seasons underdogs have gone 14,490-19,499 (42.6%), losing just under   -513 units. (Does not include this season) In other words you have to pick your spots and be diligent doing so. 

Play on TB to win on the ML 

Dodgers LH Julio Urias (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Rockies RH Chad Bettis (0-1, 9.53)

Urias, despite of good spring training and good start to his season, is just 11.57 ERA in two career games (one start) at Coors Field. We all know some hurlers don't do well here and Urias looks like one of them. 

BETTIS the Rockies starter is 9-2 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)

MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +115 to +160) (LA DODGERS) - with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games are 22-79 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Colorado +1.5 runline 

Rangers RH Shelby Miller (0-0, 4.91 ERA) vs. Angels RH Chris Stratton (0-1, 8.31)

The Angels have won seven of the last eight meetings against the Rangers and according to my projections and models matchup very good against this Rangers group. 

Halos starter STRATTON is 14-4  against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) STRATTON is 10-3  against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

LA ANGELS are 39-16 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.

Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 home game

The Angels are 16-0 L/16 on the ML after a game as a home favorite in which they allowed six or fewer hits.

Rangers are 7-16 in their last 23 vs. American League West.Rangers are 6-14 in their last 20 games vs. a right-handed starter.Rangers are 7-20 in their last 27 road games.Rangers are 5-16 in their last 21 during game 4 of a series.Rangers are 4-14 in their last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Play on LA Angels to win on the ML

Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (0-1, 1.42 ERA) vs. Indians RH Mike Clevinger (0-0, 0.00)

The Jays have dropped six of their last seven and are in a huge funk and fade material here today against Cleveland. 

The Blue Jays are 0-23 SU in the last game of a series as a road 135 dog after they lost by three plus runs.

Blue Jays are 1-6 in Stromans last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Blue Jays are 1-6 in Stromans last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.Blue Jays are 0-4 in Stromans last 4 starts.

Indians are 5-0 in Clevingers last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.Indians are 7-1 in Clevingers last 8 home starts.Indians are 6-1 in Clevingers last 7 starts on grass.Indians are 5-1 in Clevingers last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Indians are 13-3 in Clevingers last 16 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Indians are 13-3 in Clevingers last 16 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.Indians are 4-1 in Clevingers last 5 starts.

Blue Jays are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.Blue Jays are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Cleveland.

Play on Cleveland to win on the moneyline 

Red Sox LH David Price (0-1, 6.00 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Luke Weaver (0-0, 8.31)

Boston got blasted last night in the first game of this series vs Arizona by a 15-8 count, and will be primed to bounce back after that embarrassment here today.  Im betting on Bostons starter Price, who is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA versus the Diamondbacks to help us cash a ticket today. Note: BOSTON is 33-10 against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons and  is 36-10  against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons.

WEAVER Arizonas starter is 1-7 against the money line in home games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record).CORA is 22-10  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities as the manager of BOSTON. 

Diamondbacks are 4-11 in their last 15 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Diamondbacks are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.Diamondbacks are 2-6 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Diamondbacks are 4-12 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Diamondbacks are 4-13 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Diamondbacks are 2-10 in their last 12 games following a win.Diamondbacks are 1-8 in their last 9 Saturday games.Diamondbacks are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. American League East.

Red Sox are 4-0 in Prices last 4 starts vs. National League West.Red Sox are 7-0 in Prices last 7 interleague starts.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the ML

 Cubs LH Cole Hamels (0-0, 9.00 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Corbin Burnes (0-0, 7.20)

Hamels was really doing well last time out for the frst 3 innings, but then the wheels feel off and gave a up a grand slam. Im betting he has a better all around performance today in rebound mode. Hamels is 7-3 with a 3.60 ERA in 15 starts against the Brewers, including a 4-1 mark and a 3.67 ERA in eight outings at Miller Park. HAMELS is 20-9 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.5 rpg scored. HAMELS is 13-2 UNDER against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.2 rpg scored.

Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from the Brewers Burnes is  transitioning to a starting role after recording a 7-0 record and a 2.61 ERA in 30 appearances out of the bullpen last season. He is a very under rated hurler with alot of upside promise. 

I know the public likes the over here because of some obvious early seasons trends, but this particular game Im betting looks more like a sleeperfest than a slugfest. 

Under is 6-0 in Hamels' last 6 starts vs. National League Central.Under is 4-1 in Hamels' last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.Under is 4-1 in Hamels' last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 9-3 in Hamels' last 12 starts on grass.Under is 9-3 in Hamels' last 12 starts overall.Under is 6-2 in Hamels' last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Hamels' last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

MLB Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 17+ wins in last 25 games, team that had a good record last season (54% to 62%) playing a team that had a winning record are 51-17 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Injury prone Angels hurler Skaggs pitched well against the Rangers last season, recording a 2-0 mark along  with a minuscule  0.82 ERA in two starts, striking out 13 in 11 innings and gets my support here today as a marginally strong  favorite. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Smyly is 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA in six career games (four starts) against the Angels and is fade material here in this spot play .

Rangers are 7-15 in their last 22 vs. American League West.Rangers are 3-7 in their last 10 during game 3 of a series.Rangers are 7-19 in their last 26 road games.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Angels are 7-2 in their last 9 home games.

Rangers are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.Rangers are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings.

Play on the LA Angels to win on the ML

Mariners RH Mike Leake (1-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Lucas Giolito (1-0, 2.70)

Despite of both these teams bats revving up with a boatload full of runs here in the early part of the season, Im betting on their being value with an under wager here according to my projections and models. 

Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 8-3 in Mariners last 11 vs. American League Central.

Under is 5-2 in Leakes last 7 road starts

Play UNDER 

Pittsburghs pitching staff in bullpen are in top form and have shutout the Reds  by identical 2-0 wins in the first two games in this series, which is a good omen for their winning ways to continue today. Note: The Pirates are 20-0 on the ML as a favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they shut out their opponent.

Pirates starter Williams   held the Reds to three hits in six scoreless innings with six strikeouts and a walk on 80 pitches, but he also drove in two runs Sunday in a 5-0 win and is key to us cashing a winning ticket here today. Pirates are 4-0 in Williams' last 4 starts vs. Reds.

Reds are 8-27 in their last 35 road games.Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a loss.Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.Reds are 0-7 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Pirates are 10-3 in their last 13 Saturday games.Pirates are 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Pirates are 11-4 in their last 15 home games.Pirates are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Pirates are 21-8 in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Rangers RH Lance Lynn (0-0, 11.12 ERA) vs. Angels RH Felix Pena (0-1, 9.82)

My head to head power rankings and pitcher vs batting order estimations and models suggest Texas has a solid advantage here over in a 9 inning game vs an Angels team that has lost 5 straight games including last night by a 11-4 count to the Rangers.

Angels are 0-4 in Penas last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Rangers are 6-0 on the ML as a dog in the second game of a road series when they won the opener by five-plus runs, for an ROI of +175%.

LA ANGELS are 1-11  against the money line with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season (AL) over the last 2 seasons and are 1-10  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.4 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. 

MLB team (TEXAS) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 14+ losses in last 20 games against opponent first 12 games of the season, non-playoff team from last season who won 4+ of their last 5 games are 46-25 L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Texas ML

Cubs LH Jose Quintana (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 3.60)

Cubs starter Quintana is 6-2 with a 1.62 ERA in 11 career starts against the Brewers, including a 4-1 record along with a stingy 1.55 ERA in six appearances at Miller Park and buoys s strong underdog situation here for the Cubs this evening.  Right now the Cubs are desperate for a win as they have come out of gate slowly, which did not surprise me. However tonight Im betting they have an  edge in this spot play. 

Cubs are 4-0 in Quintanas last 4 road starts vs. Brewers.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the ML

The Astros have dropped 5 of 6 games and returned home with a .235/.304/.363 slash line and a .667 OPS that ranks 10th in the American League and are fade material in this spot vs a very under rated Oakland As team. Im betting on right-hander  Frankie Montas  is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA this season, limiting the Los Angeles Angels to one run on three hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a 2-1 win on March 31 and in 2018  to get the job done here and help us to the promised land . The righty was also 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA over two starts vs the Astros last year and this season he  owned a 16:5 K:BB ratio in 16 spring training innings, which is very impressive.MONTAS is 8-1 against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

The Athletics are 7-0 ML on the road off a home game in which they hit at least one home run, winning by an average of 6.14 runs per game.

HOUSTON is 4-9  against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -200 or higher over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 4-10  against the money line in home games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Oakland to win on the ML

Braves starter  Gausman (10-11, 3.92 ERA in 2018) will against  Marlins right-hander Pablo Lopez (1-0, 5.06) in the opener of a three-game set at SunTrust Park. 

Gausman was acquired at the trade deadline from Baltimore last summer when the Braves were looking for a veteran starter for the pennant drive. The righty hurler  went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts for Atlanta and garnered a solid 4-1 record along  with a stingy 1.69 in five starts in August. GAUSMAN is 8-0 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). 

Under is 5-0 in Gausmans last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.GAUSMAN is 40-17 UNDER  when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Lopez had a quality spring. He threw 20 2/3 innings with a 0.90 ERA, ranking No.1 in the Grapefruit League, with a .149 average against and a 0.55 WHIP.

Im expecting fairly low scoring affair that stays on the low side of the total. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings and another under offers us solid edge on the number. 

Play UNDER

Twins RH Jake Odorizzi (0-0, 1.50 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Nick Pivetta (0-0, 7.71)

Phillies starter Pivetta really did not look good in his opening assignment , and in my opinion needs some mechanics adjustments.  In that start he allowed four runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings   against Atlanta and today against a sometimes explosive Twins batting order Im betting he does not matchup well. Meanwhile, Ordizzi the Twins starter today looked good in his first outing, allowing just 1 hit and no runs and according to my power rankings matches up very well vs the Phillies batting order.

Twins are 5-1 in Odorizzis last 6 interleague starts.

The Twins are 10-0 ML in franchise history off a game as a favorite in which Jorge Polanco struck out at least twice and did not draw a walk.

Phillies are 3-8 in Pivettas last 11 starts with 5 days of rest.Phillies are 3-9 in Pivettas last 12 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Phillies are 1-5 in Pivettas last 6 starts.MINNESOTA is 31-16  against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better.Twins are 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Twins are 10-1 in their last 11 overall.Twins are 10-1 in their last 11 games on grass.Twins are 10-1 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Twins are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a win.Twins are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.Twins are 7-2 in their last 9 road games.Twins are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Twins are 23-9 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

MLB favorites with a money line of -150 or more (PHILADELPHIA) - excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season are 21-36 L/5 seasons for a 63% go against  conversion rate.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games are 23-43 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL), after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less are 30-18 L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota on the ML

 Mariners LH Yusei Kikuchi (0-0, 2.53 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Reynaldo Lopez (0-1, 9.00)

 The Seattle Mariners are off to a franchise-record 7-1 start as they visit the White Sox on Friday in Chicago's home opener but  Im betting their being over valued here in this spot especially considering this his the White Sox home opener.  The Pale Hose  home opener was originally scheduled for Thursday but was postponed Wednesday because of rain in the forecast. 

Mariners starting hurler this afternoon Kikuchi has limited opponents to a .200 batting average over 10 2/3 innings covering two starts but pitching in this kind of chilly April weather  here in Southside Chicago might not suit him well.  Im fading the public here and taking the motivated home underdog instead. 

CHI WHITE SOX are 6-1 against the money line vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the ML

Chicago RH Yu Darvish (0-0, 10.13 ERA) vs. Braves LH Max Fried (0-0, 0.00)

Fried the Braves starter  has  1 2/3 innings of relief work in two appearances, garnering just  two walks and no hits or runs.  The southpaw has recorded a 1.15 WHIP with 18 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings during spring training and deserves our respect here vs a Chicago team that Ive been fading early on  the season. Meanwhile, Darvish was smashed around,  in his first start of the season Saturday at Texas, walking seven hitters and surrendering three runs in 2 2/3 innings of sub par work and  owns a   0-1  record along with a 5.19 ERA and six walks in 8 2/3 innings. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 0-8 (against the money line in road games after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last 2 seasons.

Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Braves are 8-1 in their last 9 home games.Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Cubs are 5-11 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.Cubs are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League East.Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 road games.Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a loss.Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing 9-32 L/5 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to win on the ML

Blue Jays RH Aaron Sanchez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Indians RH Trevor Bauer (0-0, 1.29 ERA)

Aaron Sanchez (1-0, 0.00 ERA),  looked good in his opener  versus Detroit. The 26-year-old right-hander owns a 1-0 mark with a 5.06 ERA in three career encounters with Cleveland. He soes go against a Cleveland team struggling on offence, but my pitcher vs batting order power ranking suggest that the Tribe matches up well vs Sanchez and should do better than they generally have early this season. Meanwhile, Trevor Bauer (0-0, 1.29 ERA), allowed just  one run and one hit while striking out nine over seven innings in a 2-1 victory at Minnesota on Saturday , but in the recent past has not faired well vs the Blue Jays as owns a  2-2 record along with a bloated  6.07 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in six career appearances (five starts) against Toronto. With the Jays starting to show some offensive upside scoring 5 runs in two of their L/3, I like them to do more damage today, and help to get this score over the set total. 

Over is 3-1-1 in Blue Jays last 5 road games.Over is 11-4-1 in Blue Jays last 16 Thursday games.Over is 17-8 in Blue Jays last 25 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-0-1 in Sanchezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 3-0-1 in Sanchezs last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.Over is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.Over is 6-1 in Sanchezs last 7 starts on grass.Over is 6-1-1 in Sanchezs last 8 road starts.Over is 5-1-1 in Sanchezs last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 6-2 in Sanchezs last 8 starts overall.

TORONTO is 15-4 OVER as a road underdog of +150 to +200 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.TORONTO is 31-14 OVER in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored.

CLEVELAND is 34-19 OVER  in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.4 rpg. 

Toronto / Cleveland, Over 

Red Sox LH Eduardo Rodriguez (0-1, 10.38 ERA) vs. Athletics LH Brett Anderson (1-0, 0.00)

The defending World Series champions lost five of their first six games this season, before getting a come from behind victory last night. Im betting that last nights turnaround wont get the Red Sox out of their current World Series hangovers, and instead  will continue to manifest negatively tonight vs the under rated Oakland As. Meanwhile, the BoSox starter today Rodriguez struggled  in his season opener allowing  six runs - five earned - on eight hits and three walks in 4 1/3  and could easily get lit up again vs a batting order that my power rankings really like.  Meanwhile, his As pitching opponent ,Anderson was brilliant  in his season debut against the Los Angeles Angels  in his first start 5 days ago, allowing just three hits over six scoreless innings of top tier work and looks like a viable home underdog to back in this spot play. 

Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League West.As are 7-3 L/10 meetings in this series.

Play on the Oakland As to win on the money-line 

Yankees LH James Paxton (0-1, 1.59 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Alex Cobb (2018: 5-15, 4.90)

Baltimore has come flying out of the gate this season and have now won 4 straight games and are currently playing with a lot of confidence Meanwhile, the Yankees are looking a little unstable, and have a boatload full of injuries, that is effecting their flow.

Note: 

MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line 120 to +115) (NY YANKEES) - with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities against opponent with a terrible bullpen whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse on the season are just 16-43 L/22 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the RL

Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (0-0, 6.00 ERA) vs. Mets RH Noah Syndergaard (0-0, 6.00)

Strasburg Nationals starter owns a 2.37 ERA in 10 outings at Citi Field, where he hasn’t lost since 2013.  His Nets pitching opponent Syndergaard owns a 2.85 ERA in 16 career starts in March and April. Im betting on more of the same top tier pitching action here today and a combined score that remains on the low side of the total.

Under is 6-0 in Syndergaards last 6 home starts vs. Nationals.Under is 6-2 in Syndergaards last 8 starts vs. Nationals.

STRASBURG is 11-2 UNDER  in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) STRASBURG is 11-1 UNDER  in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) 

SYNDERGAARD is 12-3 UNDER  vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)MARTINEZ is 25-12 UNDER in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game as the manager of WASHINGTON. 

Play UNDER 

Giants LH Derek Holland (0-1, 6.75 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Ross Stripling (0-0, 0.00)

Dan Bellino the home plate umpire for this tilt is the type of official thats makes taking the under a viable option here tonight as the Dodgers and Giants go head to head. The under has cashed 57.1%   since 2005 with Bellino calling balls and strikes. 

Dodgers strter STRIPLING is 15-4 UNDER  vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7 rg scored.

HOLLAND is 11-2 UNDER vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6 rpg scored.HOLLAND is 9-0 UNDER  as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.7 rpg scored. 

Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games following a loss.Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 road games.

Under is 20-6-2 in Giants last 28 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 21-7-1 in Giants last 29 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 21-7-1 in Giants last 29 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 22-8-1 in Giants last 31 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 35-14-2 in Giants last 51 vs. National League West.Under is 34-15-2 in Giants last 51 overall.Under is 34-15-2 in Giants last 51 on grass.Under is 4-0 in Hollands last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Hollands last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Hollands last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-0 in Hollands last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-1-1 in Hollands last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 12-3-1 in Hollands last 16 road starts.Under is 4-1-1 in Hollands last 6 starts vs. National League West.Under is 4-1 in Hollands last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 3-1-1 in Hollands last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.Under is 18-7-1 in Hollands last 26 starts on grass.Under is 18-7-1 in Hollands last 26 starts overall.

Under is 19-6-1 in the last 26 meetings in Los Angeles.Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.

Play UNDER 

Im a little late to the party on this one, as I was waiting on a couple of reports , and Ive lost leverage of about 10 cents on the opening line but I still feel confident in the value of backing Atlanta as short chalk here. 

I like Braves starter Julio Teheran here at home, and feel strongly that Chicago is over rated this season, as was the case when thye were clobbered 8-0 on Monday. Now  after a day off for the Cubbies, Im betting  the rest wont change the facts on the ground and  I recommend going  against them rebounding.

Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 home games.Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 games on grass.Cubs are 1-6 in their last 7 games following an off day.

TEHERAN is 10-2  against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better since 1997. (Team's Record).TEHERAN is 15-4 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record) 

Play on Atlanta to win on the ML

Cardinals RH Miles Mikolas (0-1, 9.00 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Jameson Taillon (0-1, 6.00 ERA)

Mikolas was 10-0 in 16 starts away from home in 2018 and despite of struggling in his first start of the season a 5-4 loss vs Milwaukee he's still a quality pitcher and capable of rebounding. In five starts last season, he allowed just two runs or less in four of the appearances against them Pirates while garnering  2.90 ERA with 26 SOs and is being under rated here. Note :MIKOLAS is 24-9  against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Cardinals are 5-0 in Mikolas' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Cardinals are 4-0 in Mikolas' last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cardinals are 4-0 in Mikolas' last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cardinals are 6-0 in Mikolas' last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 4-0 in Mikolas' last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cardinals are 5-0 in Mikolas' last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cardinals are 13-2 in Mikolas' last 15 starts with 5 days of rest.Cardinals are 12-2 in Mikolas' last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 5-1 in Mikolas' last 6 road starts.Cardinals are 5-1 in Mikolas' last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.Cardinals are 21-7 in Mikolas' last 28 starts.Cardinals are 21-7 in Mikolas' last 28 starts on grass. 

Cardinals are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Pittsburgh.

Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Pirates are 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

MIKE is 31-18  against the money line in night games as the manager of ST LOUIS. 

Play on the St.Louis Cardinals to win

Phillies RH Aaron Nola (1-0, 1.50 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Anibal Sanchez (2018: 7-6, 2.83)

Bryce Harper  came back to Washington sptting bullets and showing no respect for his old team , answering a rowdy crowd by belting a two-run homer to highlight his three-hit performance as the Philadelphia Phillies improved to 4-0 on the season.  Im betting now in an emotional let spot Harper and the Phillies may not be as potent today and could struggle against under rated hurler Sanchez who  struck out 135 batters in 136 2/3 innings in 2018. 

Play Washington on the  ML

Angels RH Trevor Cahill (0-1, 6.00 ERA) vs. Mariners LH Marco Gonzales (2-0, 4.76)

Cahill the Halos starter in his first trip to the hill gave up multiple homers in a loss, but it must be noted that  he did not allow multiple homers in any of his 20 starts in 2018 when he  allowed only eight in 110 innings over 21 appearances with the  Athletics. With that said, Im betting Cahill bounces back today and helps his team get the win and us cash a ticket. Meanwhile, the Mariners starter Gonzalez despite of starting his season at 2-0 with on win coming in Japan, he has looked inconsistent  allowing 16 hits over 11 1/3 innings during his appearances, and looks far from fluid and from my power ratings pitcher vs batting order looks to be in a unfavourable situation. 

Mariners are 3-7 in Gonzales' last 10 starts.Mariners are 2-5 in Gonzales' last 7 starts vs. American League West.Mariners are 2-7 in Gonzales' last 9 starts on grass.Mariners are 1-4 in Gonzales' last 5 home starts.Mariners are 1-5 in Gonzales' last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Mariners are 0-5 in Gonzales' last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.

Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Reynolds behind home plate.LA ANGELS are 9-1  against the money line in road games in April games over the last 2 seasons.

 The Mariners are 0-4 with  Marco Gonzalez as a home favorite  when they scored more than six runs in his last start , which was the case in 12-4 victory vs the BoSox last time out on March 28th of this season.

Play on LA Angels to win on the moneyline

Red Sox LH David Price (2018: 16-7, 3.58 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Aaron Brooks (2018: 0-0, 0.00)

Slowed during Spring Training by norovirus, Red Sox starter Price makes his first start until Boston's fifth game. In his final exhibition outing -- only his second of the spring -- the left-hander allowed five runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Cubs. With Price still trying to get backin form he is fade material and being over rated on the moneyline more on reputation then facts. 

Athletics are 8-1 in their last 9 Monday games.Athletics are 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Athletics are 13-4 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Athletics are 37-14 in their last 51 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Athletics are 18-7 in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Athletics are 65-29 in their last 94 games on grass.Athletics are 35-16 in their last 51 home games.Athletics are 25-12 in their last 37 games vs. a left-handed starter.

 Red Sox are 16-36 in the last 52 meetings in Oakland.Red Sox are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.

MLB team (BOSTON) - very good offensive team from last season - scored 5.5 or more runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 8 runs or more are 23-52 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oakland to win on the ML 

 Astros RH Brad Peacock (2018: 3-5, 3.46 ERA) vs. Rangers LH Drew Smyly (2016: 7-12, 4.88)

Houston scored just four runs in the last three games after winning the season opener 5-1 and will be primed to bounce back and get rolling here vs a team they matchup well against. Note: Peacock Houstons starter earned a spot in the rotation after going 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five spring-training games (four starts) and looks like a viable choice here tonight. Im recommending we lay the lumber, here, but it wont be a common occurrence going forward. 

HOUSTON is 26-7 against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Astros are 5-0 in Peacocks last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.Rangers are 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter. 

Astros are 17-4 in the last 21 meetings in Texas.

HOUSTON is 50-16  against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons and is 30-7  against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons.

The Astros are 7-0 SU in the first game of a series with no rest as a road favorite off a road game in which they hit at least one home run and it is before the All-Star break, winning by an average of 6.7 runs per game.  

TEXAS is 1-13  against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. 

HOUSTON is 22-2  against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB  team (TEXAS) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 11+ losses in last 15 games against opponent first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 20+ wins in last 30 games are 16-61 on the ML L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the ML

LeBlanc easy throwing southpaw will make his season debut against a Red Sox team he held scoreless on two hits over 7 2/3 innings with a season-high nine strikeouts last June in Seattle. He  was 7-3 with a 3.95 ERA at home in 2018 and kept opponents to a .246 batting average Meanwhile,  Bostons right-hander Porcello had a 3.75 ERA in three spring starts. He was also 10-3 with a 3.86 ERA on the road last year and gave up six runs over 15 1/3 innings in post season play. Under is 4-1 in Porcellos last 5 starts vs. Mariners.

These teams took part in a fairly high scoring affair yesterday with with a 6-5 win but Im betting on a more muted game with alot less runs! 

Under is 10-1-1 in LeBlancs last 12 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 14-2-1 in LeBlancs last 17 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in LeBlancs last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in LeBlancs last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Play on the UNDER 

Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (2018: 8-10, 4.02 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Frankie Montas (2018: 5-4, 3.88)

 Skaggs the Angels starter today is supposed to be healthy , but I doubt he is in top form after fighting with what was described as forearm fatigue during spring training,  as was evident when he allowed nine runs and  eight earned on  11 hits in just 9 2/3 innings in three starts of sub par work. Meanwhile,  Oaklands starter Montas had an exceptional spiring  allowing  just two runs - one earned - and 11 hits in  16 innings in two starts and three relief appearances. 

I  know the As bullpen has looked a little ragged, but that is an anomaly in my . humble opinion and Im betting we have value with the home side based on starting pitching and a more fluent As offence. 

Angels are 21-46 in their last 67 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Angels are 5-12 in their last 17 Sunday games.Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Angels are 1-7 in their last 8 road gamesAngels are 1-4 in Skaggs' last 5 starts vs. American League West.Angels are 1-4 in Skaggs' last 5 starts.

Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series.Athletics are 12-4 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Athletics are 17-7 in their last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Athletics are 34-14 in their last 48 home games.

Angels are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Oakland

MLB Road teams against a 1.5 run line (LA ANGELS) - first 12 games of the season, non-playoff team from last season who won 4+ of their last 5 games 22-43 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oakland As on the moneyline 

Today I like Rangers starter Lance Lynn vs Cubs   Cole Hamels. Being a former team mate of this Rangers batting order they know him well and will have an advantage. 

 HAMELS is 0-8  against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - good team from last season, outscored opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game, after allowing 8 runs or more are 22-39 L/22 seasons for a 64% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the moneyline 

Mets RH Zack Wheeler (2018: 12-7, 3.31 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Patrick Corbin (11-7, 3.15)

Zack Wheeler the Mets starter today vs the Nationals was in top form to end his season in 2018 as was evident in his final 15 games , where he went 10-1 with a 2.06 ERA. Health, throwing inside more consistently and adopting a split-fingered fastball were the three keys behind Wheeler’s success and Im betting on more of the same action in this spot. Meanwhile, Nationals starter and new off season multi million dollar acquisition Patrick Corbin  is coming off the best season of his career, having posted a 3.15 ERA in 33 starts with 246 strikeouts. Im expecting the new kid on the block to keep up with Wheeler and for both to help keep this game on the low side of the total. 

Under is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 during game 3 of a series.Under is 6-1 in Mets last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 10-3 in Mets last 13 games following a win.Under is 3-1-2 in Mets last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Under is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Under is 12-3 in Nationals last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 6-2 in Nationals last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Play on the UNDER 

Cardinals RH Dakota Hudson (2018: 4-1, 2.63 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Brandon Woodruff (2018: 3-0, 3.61)

Hudson  the Cards starter today had a very strong spring  spring training, recording a 2-0 record along with a stellar  1.25 ERA in six appearances (four starts), including 12 consecutive scoreless innings. Meanwhile, Woodruff  is off   great September last season  garnering (16 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings, 0.73 ERA in seven relief appearances) and during  play offs posted  (17, 9 1/3, 2.89).  The righty kept rolling and spring training as is evident by a  2-0  record along with a solid 2.55 ERA while mowing down 26  batters in 17 2/3 innings of top sheld work. Today I expect these two hurlers to keep rolling here and for this combined score to stay on a low side of the total behind what at this point in the campaign looks like solid bullpens. 

Under is 38-18-2 in Cardinals last 58 during game 3 of a series.

Under is 6-1 in Woodruffs last 7 home starts.Under is 5-2 in Woodruffs last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 9-4 in Woodruffs last 13 starts overall.

Under is 5-1-1 in umpire Johnsons last 7 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.Under is 7-2-1 in  umpire Johnsons last 10 games behind home plate vs. Milwaukee.

MLB Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 17+ wins in last 25 games, team that had a good record last season (54% to 62%) playing a team that had a winning record are 50-15 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

White Sox RH Reynaldo Lopez (2018: 7-10, 3.91 ERA) vs. Royals RH Jakob Junis (2018: 9-12, 4.37)

Lopez the Pale Hose starting hurler  today  showed  that he belongs in the big leagues, ranking second on the team in innings pitched (188 2/3) while holding opponents to a .234 average and my own matchup charts suggest he matches up well vs the Royals batting lineup. Lopez won his L/2 starts vs Royals  last season and gets the nod again in this spot on a value line. 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (KANSAS CITY) - American League team with a good starting pitcher whose ERA was 4.20 to 4.70 last season are 87-105 L/22 seasons for a go against 55% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago White Sox on the ML

Mets RH Noah Syndergaard (2018: 13-4, 3.03 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (10-7, 3.74)

Mets starter Syndergaard is 3-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 12 career appearances versus Washington. 

Nationals are 22-5 in their starters Strasburgs last 27 starts during game 2 of a series.WASHINGTON is 45-30  against the money line after being shut out in a loss to a division rival since 1997The Nationals are 10-0 L/10 on the moneyline at home after they had 6 or fewer hits, winning by an average of 5.9 runs per game.

Play on Washington to win on the moneyline 

 LH Matthew Boyd (2018: 9-13, 4.39 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Matt Shoemaker (2018: 2-2, 4.94)

The Motown Tigers took a 2-0 win yesterday against the Jays in both teams opener, and Im betting on a score that does not eclipse the total here today. This Fridays pitching matchup features former Blue Jay and todays starter for Detroit  Matt Boyd,  who was just 9-13  last season, and struggled a bit in preseason play this year. Despite of a rocky exhibition run he is still a quality hurler, and was still hard to hit against  in 2018 as is evident from a 1.16 WHIP to 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings ratio. Meanwhile, injuries have limited Shoemaker his pitching opponent from the Jays,  to 21 starts in the majors over the last two seasons. However, you would never know it by his performances in  spring training  as he allowed just 12 hits while striking out 20 in 18 innings of top tier work.  In his career Shoemaker has loved pitching against this Detroit Franchise posting a 0.83 ERA in five career starts against the Tigers, allowing just  21 hits  and no HRs - in 32 2/3 innings of sparking work. 

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Under is 4-1 in Boyds last 5 starts vs. Blue Jays.

Under is 13-6 in Tigers last 19 vs. American League East.Under is 15-7-2 in Tigers last 24 Friday games.Under is 4-0 in Boyds last 4 starts on astroturfUnder is 4-1 in Boyds last 5 starts vs. American League East.

Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 home games.Under is 4-1-1 in Blue Jays last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 Friday games.Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games following a loss.Under is 4-1-2 in Blue Jays last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 13-4-2 in Blue Jays last 19 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 overall.Under is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 on astroturf.

Play on UNDER 

Red Sox starter Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA in 2018) is 6-1 with a 1.88 ERA in 11 career appearances against the Mariners.  Seattles starter Gonzales (13-9, 4.00 last season) lost his only previous start against the Red Sox, allowing five runs and seven hits in six innings and is fade material here tonight.

 The Mariners are 0-7 SU since Jul 28, 2018 after they played extra innings which happened in their 2nd game in the series at Japan and they were out scored 66 -22 in those 7 tilts. 

BOSTON is 61-18  against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 3 seasons with average margin of victory coming by 2 rpg. BOSTON is 35-10 against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 2.3 rpg. 

Play on Boston to cover -1.5 

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)

Snell the Rays starting pitcher here in their home opener, has seen his team win his last three starts vs the Houston Astros. Meanwhile,  Houstons starter Verlander has lost his L/2 vs the Rays. On paper the superior side is of course the Astros, but here in game 1 of the new season in front of their own fans the TB Rays get the nod. Note: The Rays were 5-0 SU last season as a underdog with Blake Snell when they won in his last start against their opponent .

SNELL is 11-1  against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)  SNELL is 11-3  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

TAMPA BAY is 17-4  against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. 

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 20+ wins in last 30 games, team that had a good record last season (54% to 62%) playing a team that had a winning record are 30-14 L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay on the moneyline 

World Series - Game 3 - Best of 7 - BOS Leads 2-0

The  Dodgers are a good team, but backing a great  team that looks like it has been on a mission from a higher power  all season long, at this price is just to good to pass up . The BoSox are 9-2 this October, and todays starter Porcello has been on the hill for four of those Red Sox wins and gets my support to get the BoSox one step closer to the promised land.

BOSTON is 10-0 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like Buehler whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. PORCELLO BoSox starter is 20-6 against the money line vs. poor base running teams like the Dodgers- averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. PORCELLO is 9-0  against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record

LA DODGERS are 6-12 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better ) this season.BOSTON is 18-4  against the money line in an inter-league game this season.

MLB Road teams (BOSTON) - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest, with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games are 47-17 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Road teams (BOSTON) - with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest are 47-17 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Red Sox 

Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA) and Boston’s Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) start Game 1

No doubt that these are two top quality pitcher, but this season both pitchers went over the total more often then under. Also the Dodgers  Kershaw owns a  career postseason ERA is 4.09. Kershaw top pitch the fastball has seen batters register a .292 BA during his current campaign , showing us he is not the same pitcher he once was.  Thats not a good omen for him vs one of MLBs best fast ball hitting teams.

KERSHAW is 9-2 OVER after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.7 rpg scored. 

Meanwhile, Sale the BoSox starter has not been in top form for a while now, and allowed 2 runs in 4 innings of baseball his last time out vs Houston and  is dealing with s stomach ailment of some type that might be effecting him. The Dodgers are no pushovers and they can light up the best of hurlers. 

SALE is 8-0 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average score of 10.4 rpg going on the board. 

MLB (LA DODGERS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a top level AL starting pitcher (ERA  3.60, or less WHIP 1.300 or more ), with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 10 games are 45-22 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER 

NL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Tied 3-3

Brewers start Jhoulys Chacin tonight in the a sudden death Game 7 battle . The righty has  allowed only one run over 10 1/3 innings of his first two career postseason starts, and and his and his strong bullpen get my supporter. CHACIN is 10-4  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. (Team's Record) MILWAUKEE is 31-11 against the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more this season.

Meanwhile, Buehler  the Dodgers starter  is 4-8 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record).BUEHLER is 0-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.21 and a WHIP of 0.786.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline 

NL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 6 - LAD Leads 3-2

Im expecting the Brewers starter Miley won't be pulled after one batter this time around, and now extremely rested and energized I expect his top tier work to continue tonight at home in game 6 of this series. The southpaw in postseason  action this season has pitched shutout baseball into the sixth against Ryu and the Dodgers in Game 2 last weekend in 10.1 innings of work this October,  has limited the Rockies and Dodgers to just five hits  overall.  Im betting he at home tonight he gives his team an edge.Dodgers starters have had their struggles in the series, combining for a 4.10 ERA through the first five games and I expect the Brewers to get up in the early innings than hold off the Dodgers for a Game 7.MILWAUKEE is 8-1  against the money line in home games with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season. 

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline 

The Red Sox in this NLCS game will go left-hander David Price (0-1, 9.95 ERA over two starts this postseason)  . Price r has looked nasty in the post season  and in 11 career play off starts is (0-9, 6.16 ERA)  and in Game 2 allowed four runs on five hits and four walks over 4 2/3 innings. Im betting the Astros get after him today and unleash some damage on him and his incoming bullpen. His opponent from the Astrosi n Game 1, Verlander limited the Red Sox to two runs on two hits. But he issued four walks and is is susceptible to being reached by a Bosox team that spanked right handers for a.271 BA this season and 5.5 rpg on average. Five of the L/6meetings here in Houston have gone over and Im betting on this number being eclipsed this evening. 

Play on the OVER 

Miley the starter tonight for the Brewers  was in top form in  Game 2 of the series Saturday in Milwaukee, recording 6 +scoreless innings and Im betting on more top tier work here today vs a Dodgers batting order that he feels comfortable facing. Miley has now had two scoreless appearances in this season play offs. Meanwhile, former Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw the Dodgers starter, after a down effort last time out, will be primed to bounce back here today. This is the kind of guy that does his best work when he feels he has something to prove, and after negative media reports about his demise, he definitely has a chip on his shoulder entering this fray. 

Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles.Under is 6-2-1 in Kershaws last 9 starts vs. Brewers.

Adding to the drama is that Game 5 will be played less than 15 hours after the ending to Game 4, which lasted 5 hours, 15 minutes and was the second-longest NLCS game by time after Game 5 in 1999 between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves went 5:46. both sides will exhibit tiredness which will buoy what the lines makers are expecting, and that is a low scoring game.

Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 road games.Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 8-1 in Brewers last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 on grass.Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 overall.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 games following a loss.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 playoff games.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 vs. National League West.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 playoff road games. Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 League Championship road games.Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 41-19 in Brewers last 60 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-2 in Mileys last 7 road starts.

Under is 6-0 in Dodgers last 6 playoff home games.Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games.Under is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 League Championship home games. Under is 21-5-1 in Dodgers last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 20-5-1 in Dodgers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. National League Central.Under is 7-2-1 in Dodgers last 10 League Championship games.Under is 7-2-1 in Dodgers last 10 playoff games.Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 on grass.Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 overall.Under is 23-9-3 in Dodgers last 35 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 5-2-1 in Dodgers last 8 Wednesday games.

NL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 2-1

The Dodgers had their chances Monday,  despite of losing 4-0 ,as they went  just 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position. Thats the kind stink that usually stays on a team for while, and Im betting that funk continues tonight against the Brewers pitching that held the Dodgers to just 3 hits in the first 8 innings and team that has recorded 6 shutout in this years play offs so far. Meanwhile, the Dodgers pitching remains strong and I expect Hill to throw darts here today and keep the Brewers batting order under control I ga em that Im betting fails to eclipse the total. Note Hill allowed two earned runs in 12 innings in two starts vs the Brew Crew this season.

. Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 playoff home games.Under is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 home games.Over is 5-0-2 in Dodgers last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 20-5-1 in Dodgers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 19-6-1 in Dodgers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 6-2-1 in Dodgers last 9 playoff games.Under is 13-5-1 in Dodgers last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 5-2-1 in Dodgers last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 22-9-3 in Dodgers last 34 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 18-8-2 in Dodgers last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 road games.Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 on grass.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 overall.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 games following a win.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 playoff games.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 vs. National League West.Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 playoff road games.

Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play UNDER 

The Milwaukee Brewers 12 game win streak came to abrupt end last time out after a game 2 loss that saw them blow an early  lead. Now with the Dodgers back in the friendly confines of Chez Ravine they look like a strong candidate to hand the Brewers their second loss in a row behind the arm of Beuhler who has won his L/3  home starts and owned a  1.93 ERA and 84 strikeouts across 74 2/3 innings at Dodger Stadium this season. Buehler allowed only one run in seven innings when L.A. hosted Milwaukee on July 31 and according to my power rankings  matches up well against them. With the Brewers most consistent hitter now in a slump ( Yelich) batting just.188 in the play offs I can feel the momentum beginning to shift towards the Dodgers.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers matchup well against the Brewers pitcher Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50 ERA)  who they faced quite a bit when he was the Padres, which was evident last time he visited here when got blasted for 8 runs in just 4.1 innings of shoddy work. If Chacin falters his usually reliable bullpen is starting to look wobbly as is eviident by allowing 8 runs in the first two game of this series, and Im betting won't provide true relief here . 

Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 League Championship games.Brewers are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff road games.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the moneyline 

The Red Sox own the better offence and the Astros the better pitching. Sale the Red Sox starter today is however the best individual pitcher in this series, and the Red Sox know how important it is to grab a win with him on the hill in this series. One mistake and the Red Sox are toast, as Houston is just two deep and has very few if any holes in their lineup. Look for the Red Sox to leave everything on the filed today behind Sales and find a way to win here in the Friendly confines of Fenway Park.Im not  putting down Justin Verlander the Astros starter as he's a fine pitcher but Boston has done their best work vs right handed starters this as is evident by a  88-39 run against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Astros are 2-8 in their last 10 League Championship road gamesAstros are 1-4 in Verlanders last 5 starts vs. American League East.

Red Sox are 11-1 in Sales last 12 starts on a natural surfaceRed Sox are 6-1 in Sales last 7 home starts.

Play on the Boston Red Sox in Game 1

The Milwaukee Brewers are on a 12 game win streak after taking game 1 of this series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and are my choice again here in game 2 with Wade Miley on the hill .Miley had to take a no-decision in an NLDS start against the Colorado Rockies when he allowed three hits over 4 2/3 shutout innings and shut the Dodgers out the last time he faced them in LA back on July 31.

Brewers are 8-0 in Mileys last 8 starts.

The Dodgers currently look unstable, and inconsistent both offensively and defensively. They did show some spark last night after being down 6-1 and came back with 4 runs, before losing, 6-5, but the 4 errors they committed sealed their fate. 

Its all about consistency and right now the Brewers are in a groove with everything working for them, while LAs moving parts are not in rhythm and whether Im  right or wrong  in my assessments Im not going to go against the Brewers in their current form.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the moneyline 

NL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 1

Milwaukee pitching is  as hot as tamale sauce and that was on full display in their last  series with the Rockies, with Colorado scoring in only one inning over the course of the three games. Overall dating back 5 games opponents have scored a total 3 runs on the Brewers and they have 3 shutouts. The Dodgers will now face a group of hurlers that could slow them down a lot. As a matter of fact there are a number of Dodgers already in hitting slumps , as Max Muncy, Manny Machado, and Yasmani Grandal are batting under .200 . Truth is  the Dodgers got by the Braves in their last series thanks to some top tier pitching and clutch long balls, but other than that they looked muted in the batting box.  It must also be noted that LA is hitting a collective .059 vs key Brewers reliever Hader.

Yes, there are some strong hitters in the Milwaukee lineup but dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw should be able to deal with a majority of these guys and even if Yelich keeps rolling, Im not betting on extensive damage , which has me looking at this game going under the set total.

 Under is 5-0-1 in Kershaws last 6 road starts vs. Brewers.Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Play UNDER 

The Brewers enter this game on a 11 game win streak, and even the great Clayton Kershaw will have problems stopping this freight train behind the super hot Christian Yalich who hit .433 (13-30) against Dodgers hurlers during the regular season.

Meanwhile, the Brewers start Gonzalez goes against a Dodgers batting order that despite of finding ways to win has some key players in major funks, as Max Muncy, Manny Machado, and Yasmani Grandal are batting under .200. Chacin when if he falters is backed by a strong bullpen with LA Hitting a Collective .059  against  key reliever Josh Hader. 

With that said, Im backing Milwaukee to keep rolling with a home win in Game 1 of this series.

LAD are 3-11 in their last 14 League Championship road games.

Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 playoff home games.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs, in October games are 43-21 L/21 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Milwaukee to win on the moneyline 

Oh boy did the Yankees ever get clobbered yesterday by the Bosox by a 16-1 count. Now with the Yankees in desperation mode and completely feeling embarrassed , redemption and revenge are at hand .  Look for the Yankees to bounce back vs Rick Porcello who is 0-3 with a bloated 5.33 ERA in 12 out season appearances and is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in four postseason outings with the Red Soc. The right hander in seven career starts in Yankee Stadium, is just 1-4 with a hefty 5.56 ERA.

Meanwhile,Sabathia the Yankees starter has pitched particularly well in the ALDS. In 11 appearances (10 starts) he is 6-0 with a 3.32 ERA.Since joining the Yankees in 2009 as a free agent, Sabathia is 8-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 18 postseason appearances (17 starts).Boston hitters garnered just one run in seven innings when they last faced him on June 29 in the Bronx. I know what happened yesterday, but The Yankees’  own a top tier bullpen that has shown their metal in this series, allowing just one run in 10 innings in the first two games of this series and Im also betting they bounce back tonight. 

MLB teams (BOSTON) - average hitting team (AVG .265 to .279) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less ) -AL, with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games are 12-37 L/5 seasons fo a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the moneyline 

Im betting last nights Braves celebration , that saw them somehow find a way to win 6-5 on just 4 hits abruptly comes to an end this afternoon vs the LA Dodgers. Im betting on a well rested Dodger hurler Hill, who hasn't worked since pitching seven scoreless innings at San Francisco last Sunday to be well rested and fresh. The southpaw has won his last five regular-season starts to finish 11-5 on the season and is 5-0 with stingy 1.74 ERA in nine games against the Braves.

Braves starter FOLTYNEWICZ is 1-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 7.43 and a WHIP of 1.725.

Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff games.Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 after a loss.Braves are 7-16 in their last 23 playoff home games.

Braves are 8-20 in their last 28 playoff games.Braves are 5-14 in their last 19 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Braves are 3-11 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Braves are 2-5 in Foltynewiczs last 7 Monday starts.Braves are 2-6 in Foltynewiczs last 8 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.Braves are 1-4 in Foltynewiczs last 5 home starts.Braves are 1-4 in Foltynewiczs last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Braves are 1-5 in Foltynewiczs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 1-5 in Foltynewiczs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 1-6 in Foltynewiczs last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Braves are 1-6 in Foltynewiczs last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Braves are 1-7 in Foltynewiczs last 8 starts vs. National League West

MLB Road teams (LA DODGERS) - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest, with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 game are 44-17 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the moneyline 

Astros have played their best baseball on the road this season, and once again look like strong candidates here today vs the Cleveland Indians and their inconsistent hurler Clevinger, who has previously garnered a bloated 6.43 ERA in seven innings of post season ball.  In two starts against the Astros this year Clevinger was 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA. Meanwhile,  Houston’s Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.74 ERA) in 41.2 innings of  play off work owns  a solid 3.24 ERA. Keuchel  like his team has been his best on the road this season, and his team has won 10 of his L/13 daytime appearances.In eight career appearances against Cleveland Keuchel is 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA.

CLEVELAND is 11-20  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.HOUSTON is 16-3 against the money line in road games after a win by 2 runs or less this season.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline 

Atlanta's offence is slumping at the worst possible time, and Im betting things will not get much better vs Buehler, who had a 2.03 ERA after the All-Star break. He is off  a top tier performance recording 6 2/3 scoreless innings Monday in the NL West tiebreaker against Colorado that gave the Dodgers their sixth straight division title. Buehler beat the Braves in his only regular-season start against them allowing a run and two hits over 5 1/3 innings at Los Angeles on June 8.  With that said, the Dodgers get the nod to take game 3.

ATLANTA is 0-8 against the money line in home games in a playoff game, facing elimination since 1997. ATLANTA is 4-15  against the money line in home games after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. (Braves were shutout in back to back games to start tis series)

MLB underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games are just 14-78 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the moneyline 

Public money keeps rolling in on Colorado, but Milwaukee is in a groove right now, and feeling the momentum of being up 2-0, and on a current 10 game win streak and  with the reliable Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) on the hill are capable of taking the Rockies out here in their own back yard.Brewers are 7-0 in Mileys last 7 starts and 6-1 in his L/7 road outings.

Meanwhile, Marquez suffered through one of his worst outings at home against Milwaukee on May 10, when he permitted five runs on 12 hits and three walks in just 4 2/3 innings. The way the Brewers are hitting right now , the righty could once again find himself in trouble. 

MILEY is 12-4  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record) 

MILWAUKEE is 23-6  against the money line after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less this season, which was the case last time out. 

Rockies are 2-10 in their last 12 playoff games.Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff games.Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff home games.Brewers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Colorado

MLB team (COLORADO) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season, after scoring 2 runs or less 4 straight games are 49-94 L/21seasons for a go against conversion rate of 66% for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to win on the moneyline

The weather is supposed to pretty nice here tonight in Boston with a light breeze at Fenway. This sets up for a perfect environment for these two powerful offences to tee off and put some big digits on the board. David Price the BoSox hurler today is   0-8 in nine career postseason starts along with a bloated 5.54 ERA  and has garnered a ugly 0 -3 record with a nasty looking  10.34 ERA in four starts against the Yankees this season. Meanwhile, Tanaka  the Yankees starter has struggled over his final two regular-season starts, giving up eight earned runs in eight innings (9.00 ERA). In four starts against the Red Sox during the regular season, he had a 7.58 ERA..Over is 8-2-1 in Tanakas last 11 starts vs. American League East. I like the OVER odds the books are offering and suggest we take it. 

Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.Over is 3-0-1 in Prices last 4 starts vs. Yankees.Over is 3-0-1 in Tanakas last 4 starts vs. Red Sox.

Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 overall.Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 road games.Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. American League East.Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 during game 2 of a series.

Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-0-2 in Red Sox last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-0-2 in Red Sox last 7 home games.Over is 7-0-1 in Red Sox last 8 vs. American League East.Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 during game 2 of a series.Over is 9-1-1 in Red Sox last 11 overall.Over is 9-1-1 in Red Sox last 11 on grass.Over is 8-1-2 in Red Sox last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Play OVER 

Carrasco  the Tribes starter loves pitching here in  Houston , where he has a 1.17 ERA with 28 strikeouts vs. three walks in 23 innings in his career. In Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees last year, Carrasco logged 5 2/3 shutout innings and thrives in this environment. Carrasco pitches his best away from home, as opposition hitters are averaging  .220 against him. If he tires, he is backed with a bullpen that has gotten much better down the stretch and must be respected in their abilities to support him. Meanwhile, Garret Cole the Astros starter despite of his good numbers this season, has struggled bit of late at home where he has allowed 4 runs or more against 2 of his L/3 above .500 opponents . Coles top pitch the fastball is a favorite of Tribes key hitters and I won't be surprised if they tee off on him today in a big way. You have to remember Houston has not played well at home this season, and have lost 8 of their L/12 at home vs an above .500 team like the Indians. We have a lot of value here taking the Tribe to come out of this tilt with a victory. Note: Indians are 20-9 in their last 29 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Play on the Cleveland Indians 

Clayton Kershaw was little upset he did not get the start in game 1 of this series, and suggested to those listening he does not need to prove himself to anyone. Now a little cranky and with a lot to prove, after a couple of down performances to finish his season, Kershaw should be ready to make believers of his detractors. Right now I believe in Kershaw and the rest of the Dodgers as believe they are the superior side.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (ATLANTA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL are 13-91 L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory defeat coming by  2.4 rpg, which qualifies via a runline wager at -1.5 on the Dodgers. 

MLB Road teams against a 1.5 run line (ATLANTA) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 19-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers on the runline -1.5