Phillies RH Vince Velasquez (0-2, 9.00 ERA) vs. Mets RH Robert Gsellman (0-1, 9.28)

Today we have two starting pitchers with ugly ERAs, and Im betting their numbers won't get much better tonight in a game I have pegged to eclipse the number. I know the Mets bats have struggled lately, but they did explode for 23 runs and 10 homers when the Mets played the Phillies during a three-game sweep last week at Citizens Bank Park and should tee up going against a Phillies bullpen that owns a bloated 5.01 ERA on the season.
Over is 6-1 in Velasquezs last 7 starts overall.Over is 7-3-2 in Phillies last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 home games.Over is 4-1 in Gsellmans last 5 starts overall. Over is 39-16-2 in the last 57 meetings in New York.

PHILADELPHIA is 24-9 OVER in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse dating back to last season with an average of 10.2 rpg going on the scoreboard. 

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Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (1-1, 7.56 ERA) vs. Blue Jays LH Francisco Liriano (0-1, 9.00)

Porcello and Lariano are two veteran hurlers who are starting a little slowly, but I'm betting they will get together in short order. Porcello had thrown at least six innings in 20 straight regular-season games, but got knocked around last time out, but I expect he will be keyed on rebounding here, vs a struggling Blue Jays side with a 2-11 record. Note: Under is 4-1 in Porcellos last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, Larinao the Jays stater  had a solid outing last time out, against Baltimore and should be primed to perform again in this spot.Under is 5-0 in Lirianos last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 during game 2 of a series.Under is 20-9-2 in Red Sox last 31 overall.Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.TORONTO is 24-8 UNDER  as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last couple of seasons with a combined average of 7.4 rpg going on the board. Toronto has averaged only 2.5 rpg vs righty starters this season. 

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Tigers RH Michael Fulmer (1-0, 2.25 ERA) vs. Rays RH Matt Andriese (0-0, 4.50)

AL rookie of the year Micheal Fulmer the Tigers starting hurler today has owned Tampa Bays batting order as is evident by the Rays .128 batting average against him in his two starts last season. ( The young thrower struck out out 21 and allowed one run over 14 innings of top tier work). He shown some brilliance so far this season, and is a name that   gets thrown around with respect on consistent basis around MLB pundit circles. Meanwhile, a pitcher I have ranked in the lower part of my pitcher power rankings Andriese has made five appearances (one start) against Detroit in his career, recording a  1-1 hashtag along with a bloated  5.73 ERA, and looks to be an d sub par form again this season. With TB slumping losing 6 of their L/7 ( all on the road) Im betting not even a return home will help their cause.

Tigers are 22-5 in their last 27 during game 1 of a series.Rays are 3-12 in Andrieses last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Rays are 0-4 in Andrieses last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.Rays are 1-5 in Andrieses last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Tigers are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay and 5 straight in TB.

FULMER is 9-1  against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. FULMER is 10-1 L/11 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last couple of  seasons and  is 8-1 L/9 against the money line against AL East opponents over the last couple of seasons.

TAMPA BAY is 13-28 L/41 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game over the last couple of seasons.

DETROIT is 8-0 L/8  against the money line in road games after allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival over the last few seasons.

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Pirates RH Ivan Nova (1-1, 2.25 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Lance Lynn (0-1, 5.23)

The Cardinals,enter this game looking horrendous, as they take the  National League's worst record back to Busch Stadium for the opener of a three-game series  tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates, ranking 27th in fielding percentage and average almost an error per game.The Cards are a ugly minus-12,  as the in-cohesive fumble handed D,  has handed their pitching staff 12 runs, or just over a run per game. Meanwhile, the Pirates come into St.Louis off a weekend sweep of the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, and once again look like solid bets on value line vs a struggling Cardinals team with a solid pitcher on  the mound Monday night, right-hander Ivan Nova (1-1, 2.25 ERA).

Note on starter: Lance Lynn (0-1, 5.23 ERA)  starting hurler for the Cardinals. He looked in-cohesive coming off an 8-3 loss Tuesday night in Washington. ( The Pirates are hitting .276 and averaging 4.9 rpg vs  right handed pitchers this season)  Cards bullpen owns a ugly 7.34 ERA this season. 

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ( against the money line vs. an NL team like the Cards with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. ST LOUIS is 2-9 L/11 against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive road games.

MLB Home teams like the Cardinals  - cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 35-13 dating back over 20 seasons, for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates  to win on the money-line 1 unit reg selection 

Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (0-2, 7.00 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Michael Pineda (1-1, 3.97)

Wainwright has never faced the Yankees but has had success against several of their hitters in the past, as Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Chris Carter and Matt Holliday are a combined 14-for-68 with no home runs against him. With NY struggling in the clutch going   1-for-30 with runners in scoring position over the last three games, and lucky to get a win yesterday, despite of striking out 17 times, leaving 12 men on base and going 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position. With that said, I'm betting Wainright has a chance at deent start after starting his season slowly.  I know the Yankees are perfect so far at home this season, but all good things must evetually come to an end. 

Yankees are 4-10 in Pinedas last 14 starts during game 3 of a series.Yankees are 3-9 in Pinedas last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearanceCardinals are 40-17 in their last 57 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Cardinals are 44-18 in Wainwrights last 62 starts during game 3 of a series. Cardinals are 9-4 in Wainwrights last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

ST LOUIS is 11-4 L/15  against the money line in road games with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent dating back to last  season and are 15-4  against the money line after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games dating back to last season.WAINWRIGHT is 30-10  against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 in his career.PINEDA is 9-16 L/25 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last few seasons.

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Mets RH Matt Harvey (2-0, 2.92 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Dan Straily (1-1, 7.56)

Just looking casually at these two pitcher early season stats, and following the consensus that the Mets are a team on the rise, you maybe blinded by the fact that the Mets hitters are operating badly in the clutch and averaging just .237 vs righty throwers . The blinders also might be on when considering the Mets have also  lost 2 straight,  and that Straily the Marlins starter is a decent pitcher and in the above average category in my current pitcher categories/power rankings. Straily recovered from a rough first outing to beat Atlanta on Tuesday, striking out five while allowing two runs on just  three hits in five innings in a 8-4 win last time out  and is now ready to perform here today with confidence on his side behind a offense that is averaging 5.2 rpg vs righties this season..  It must also be noted that MLB  teams like the Marlin s - National League team with a good starting pitcher whose ERA was 3.70 to 4.20 last season, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games is a bankroll expanding 47-16 L/63 opportunities dating back over a 20 season sample size for a 75% conversion rate.

STRAILY is 11-4 L/15 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse and s 10-1 L/11 against the money line in day games and is 9-1 L/10 starts against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125. 

Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (1-1, 2.70 ERA) vs. Blue Jays LH J.A. Happ (0-2, 5.40)

Happ, the Jays starter today is rounding into top form slowly but surely, and should now be ready for a top tier performance in this tilt vs Baltimore. Happ a 20 game winner last season was 11-2 at home and 2-0 versus the O's in 2016. Meanwhile, Bundy the Orioles starter will make his second, appearance of the season this Sunday vs the Jays. I expect the Jays top tier group of hitters in their second time around to be much harder on the righty then they were the first time they met when they scored just 1 run against him in his first start of the season.

Orioles are 8-17 in their last 25 during game 4 of a series.Blue Jays are 8-0 in Happs last 8 Sunday starts.Blue Jays are 15-2 in Happs last 17 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Blue Jays are 5-1 in Happs last 6 starts during game 4 of a series.HAPP is 14-3 ( against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.

This from a league wide long term MLB data base: Home teams like the Jays - cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 5 games, starting a pitcher who walked 1 hitters or less each of his last 2 outings are 516-331 for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like Toronto - starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings, a struggled offense  team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games are a bankroll expanding 70-20 for a massive 78% conversion rate dating back 5 seasons.

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Diamondbacks LH Patrick Corbin (1-1, 1.80 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (1-1, 6.30)

The Dodgers have the reputation of struggling against left handers dating back to last season, and have lost 4 of their L/5 vs southpaw pitching this season. But enough is enough and the Dodgers are ready to stack todays lineup with right handed batters vs lefty starter Patrick Crobin who is off Tommy John surgery in 2014. Note: Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Corbins last 7 starts vs. DodgersQUOTE: “I know what happened last year, so I get the narrative and the conversations about it,” Friedman told reporters. “But I am confident that when we look up six weeks from now, eight weeks from now, that won’t be the narrative. END QUOTE.
Meanwhile, Maeda, the Dodgers starter has struggled this season, but is still a over powering pitcher when in a groove, as is evident by striking out 9 batters in 10 innings of work so far this season. The righty has also had success against the DBacks in the recent past going 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA while striking out 34 and walking seven in six career starts.Dodgers are 4-1 in Maedas last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks.

Diamondbacks are 1-8 in Corbins last 9 starts.Los Angeles has won eight of its last 10 home games against Arizona.Dodgers are 50-20 in their last 70 home games.Diamondbacks are 5-23 in the last 28 meetings in Los Angeles.LA DODGERS are 31-9 ( against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last few seasons winning by an average of 2 rpg.ARIZONA is 17-34 L/51 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 losing SU by an average of 1.7 rpg. the Dodgers in 5 home games have averaged 6.8 rpg. Dodgers bullpen has been terrific with a 1.31 ERA on the season.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the Dodgers - National League team with a very good starting pitcher whose WHIP was 1.250 or better last season, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games are 69-22 dating back 20 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

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Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 0.64 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Kendall Graveman (2-0, 2.08)

Former Cy Young award winner  Keuchel has been intop form to start out his campaign. He is just the  the fourth pitcher in major-league history - and first since Nolan Ryan in 1979 - to give up fewer than three hits while working at least seven innings in each of his first two games of a season. ( Astros are 5-1 in Keuchels last 6 starts vs. American League West.) Astros batters are averaging just .202 BA this season vs southpaw hurlers  .

Meanwhile, Oakland starter Gravermans is also in good form, but is still in the mid range of my over pitcher power rankings.Astros are also 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter and averaging .293 BA and 5 RPG. Athletics are 0-4 in Gravemans last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

 Astros are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

OAKLAND is 3-19 L/21 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better like the Astros own.OAKLAND is 4-15 L/19 against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 .

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the As - after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more are 15-39 for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors. 

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White Sox RH Miguel Gonzalez (1-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Indians RH Josh Tomlin (0-1, 11.57)

I know the White Sox offense is struggling , but their pitching and bullpen have been brilliant making them upset possibilites here in this spot. Entering yesterdays play The Pale Hose Bull pen own s a 1.33 ERA on the season allowing just 3 ERS in 21 + innings of work. With that said, Cleveland is also struggling on offense averaging  just .216 BA as a team and have scored 2 or less runs in 3 straight games entering yesterdays action. ( The White Sox won 2-1 yesterday, which was Cleveland 4th loss in 5 games)) Im betting Miguel Gonzalez the Indians starter will cause some headaches for the struggling Indians bats. Meanwhile, Tomlin Cleveland starter struggled in his opening assignment, and could provide the White Sox batters with a opening to produce more runs here, something I expect will be the case.

Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss.

GONZALEZ team is 7-0 in his career  against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 including a perfect 5-0 on the road under the same moneyline peremiters. His team has also won 4 of his 5 career starts vs the Indians. CLEVELAND is 7-14 L/21 against the money line in home games vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less runs/game on the season.

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Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-1, 3.86 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Brett Anderson (0-0, 1.59)

The Dodgers enter this game having struggled against LHP pitching losing 9 of their L/10 vs southpaws dating back to last season and have failed in 17 of their 22 vs lefties. In four games this season vs unorthodox hurlers the Dodgers are batting just .238 and even the inconsistent Anderson will have an edge here. Note: LA DODGERS are 7-22 L/29 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 Meanwhile, the CHICAGO CUBS are 16-3 L/19 against the money line in home games vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better like the Dodgers own and are 21-3  against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season.

Also from a league wide data base : MLB home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the Cubs - allowing 3.5 or less runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent top tier team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season are 35-9 cashing at a 80% clip for betting backers.

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 Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, a young southpaw , gave up one run and four hits in six innings, with six strikeouts, and came away with the victory in the Rockies' 2-1 win in his last start, and Im betting will give the Padres batters some problems in this spot . Freeland is backed by a bullpen that has been fairly solid this seaon, as is evident by a 2.64 ERA. Note the Padres have averaged 3.2 rpg this season behind a ugly .212 BA and have averaged 2.8 rpg in 6 road games with a .206 BA, including scoring just 2 rpg in 3 games vs left handers. Meanwhile, the Rockies will face a minor leaguer in LEE,  who could pose problems for them , as he is a unfimiliar opponent. This above mentioned set of  combinations will make for what Im betting will be a lower scoring affair than the linesmkaers expect.

SAN DIEGO is 17-6 UNDER L/23 in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse dating back to last season with a combined 7.3 rpg going on the scoreboard. COLORADO is 30-14 UNDER L/44 vs. slower speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game with an average of 9.4 rpg going on the board. 

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Diamondbacks LHP Robbie Ray (0-0, 4.76 ERA) vs. Giants RH Jeff Samardzija (0-1, 10.13)

Arizona has started their season on fire, but hit a brick wall yesterday vs their hosts the SF Giants in a 4-1 loss. Im betting things don't get better today behind their starting hurler Ray who has seen his team lose 15 of this L/17 against the money line vs. struggling power teams like SF - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last couple of  seasons. Meanwhile,  the Giants starting hurler Samardzija pitched some of his best ball last season, vs Arizona going 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA in three appearences. 

Diamondbacks are 2-7 in Rays last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Giants are 6-1 in their last 7 home games.Diamondbacks are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco.

MLB teams like Arizona  - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL), after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games, which has just happened are 9-30 L/39 on the moneyline spanning 5 seasons for a go against a 77% conversion rate for bettors . 

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Rangers LH Cole Hamels (0-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (0-1, 8.44)

Cole Hamels had a very average start to his season, but this top caliber pitcher Im betting returns with a much better performance this time around. Meanwhile, the Rangers thrower despite of a not so terrific first start, matches up well against this batting order, and is backed by a team with a top tier fielding  defense and alot of range.Under is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 vs. American League West.Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 during game 1 of a series.Under is 5-0 in Skaggs' last 5 home starts.Under is 5-1-1 in Skaggs' last 7 starts overall.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

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Braves RH Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.50 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Dan Straily (0-1, 13.50)

Thanks to Dan Strailys poor numbers and these teams having played some failry high scoring games this season,  the total has been listed as a little over done. I now expect a lower scoring game here in this tilt. It must be noted that the Under is 4-1-2 in Marlins last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami.MIAMI is 31-14 UNDER  at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last few seasons with na average of 7.3 rpg going on the scoreboard.

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 Brewers RH Wily Peralta (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Blue Jays LH J.A. Happ (0-1, 3.86)

Happ owns a 6.13 ERA in 11 career games (10 starts) against Milwaukee and Im betting gets roughed up again. Over is 7-0 in Brewers last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Meanwhile,  Brewers RH starter Wily Peralta has seen the  Over go 8-0 in his  last 8 interleague starts.Over is 7-2 in Blue Jays last 9 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.

Over is 6-0 in Brewers last 6 interleague road games.Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

My projections have this game eclipsing the beatable total. 

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Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (1-0, 1.29 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Drew Pomeranz (2016: 11-12, 3.32)

Neither of these pitchers inspires bettors, but here at home at Fenway when looking at pitcher vs batter situations and strengths the home team has the edge.

Red Sox are 22-8 in their last 30 during game 1 of a series. 

Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Orioles are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.

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Mets RH Jacob deGrom (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Jerad Eickhoff (0-1, 2.70) 

DeGrom has gone 4-0 in seven career starts vs the Phillies, with his team winning all those starts  including a one-hit shutout on July 17 at Philadelphia last season. I'm betting despite of elbow surgery the hurler continues his dominance in this series vs the Phillies. It must be noted that the Mets smashed 34 home runs in 19 games against the Phillies in 2016  - their highest total versus any one opponent and will be primed to explode again here against a suspect bullpen.

Phillies are 2-8 in Eickhoffs last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

.DEGROM team is 22-7 L/29 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150. PHILADELPHIA is 9-26 L/35 against the money line after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base. 

Mets are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings in Philadelphia.

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Astros RH Charlie Morton (0-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Mariners LH James Paxton (0-0, 0.00)

Over is 6-2 in Paxtons last 8 starts overall dating back to last season. Over is 4-1 in Paxtons last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Houston is a good fast ball hitting team and should do well against Paxtons big time heater .  Meanwhile, Charlie Morton is in my mid range American league pitcher rankings and Im betting he gets roughed up in this tilt. With that said, look for this total to be eclipsed. 

SEATTLE is 26-15 OVER L/41 in home games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last couple of seasons. HOUSTON is 19-7 OVER L/26  in road games in April games over the last few seasons with a combined average of 9.9 rpg gong on the scoreboard.  

MLB teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 like the Mariners - lower tier fielding team - averaging 0.75+ errors/game on the season, after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less are 30-9 to the OVER L/39 for a 77% conversion rate for over bettors.

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 Diamondbacks RH Taijuan Walker (1-0, 6.00 ERA) vs. Giants LH Matt Moore (0-1, 5.06)

Arizona's offense has been explosive out of the game this season, and has scored 48 runs in total in 7 games, with 27 of those runs coming in their opening series vs the Giants. The Giants responded with 19 and runs and must not be underestimated in that above mentioned series.. Im looking for more fireworks today, as struggling hurlers and hot bats go head to head. 

Over is 33-16-2 in Diamondbacks last 51 vs. National League West.Over is 16-5-1 in Diamondbacks last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Over is 8-1-1 in Giants last 10 overall.Over is 6-0 in Moores last 6 starts overall dating back to last season.Over is 4-0 in Moores last 4 home starts.

ARIZONA is 30-18 OVER L/48 when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.SAN FRANCISCO is 14-3 OVER  with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 5 games over the last few seasons.

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Rays RH Alex Cobb (1-0, 1.59 ERA) vs. Michael Pineda (0-1, 9.82)

Tampa Bay is hitting .271, and has scored 33 runs and hit seven home runs and are in top offensive form here early in the season. Im betting on them doing some damage today, and for a Yankees team that smashed out 7 runs yesterday to use that momentum to generate some runs again in game 1 of this series.

Dating back to last season the Over is 6-0 in Cobbs last 6 road starts.Over is 7-1 in Cobbs last 8 starts overall.Over is 7-2 in Yankees last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Over is 4-1 in Pinedas last 5 home starts.Over is 5-1 in Pinedas last 6 starts vs. Rays.Pineda is 2-5 with a 4.65 ERA in 13 career starts against Tampa Bay.

MLB Home teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 like the Yanks - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, a struggling team (.380% or less ) playing a team with a winning record have gone over in 44 of their L/60 games for a 73% conversion rate!

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Cincinnati got crushed yesterday by a 10-4 count vs their hosts the St. Louis Cardinals allowing 22 base runners. I don't think things will get much better today, as the Reds send Scott Feldman (0-1, 5.79 ERA) to the hill to face a suddenly explosive St. Louis' offense. Meanwhile, the Cards pitcher Martinez looked great in his opening day assignment, pitching 7 1/2 innings of scoreless ball vs the defending Wolrd Series champion Cubs. Martinez has alsp done well  in his career against Cincinnati, going 5-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 16 outings ( 5 starts). He posted two wins last year over the Reds and is my choice in this spot. When Martinez starts in April his team is 9-0 SU L/9 winning SU by an average of 4.6 ppg. CINCINNATI is 4-19 L/23 against the money line in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons , losing SU by an average of 2 rpg. Dating to the start of the 2003 season, Cincinnati has won just four of its last 39 series at Busch Stadium, losing 32.

Play on the St.Louis Cards on the runline -1.5 

Yankees LH CC Sabathia (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Orioles LH Wade Miley (2016: 9-13, 5.37)

Im betting on the Orioles being in a good spot , to get a three game sweep of th NY Yankees side that has lost 4 of their first 5 games and are going to be without their starting catcher Gary Sanchez today  and first baseman Greg Bird because of injury. NY YANKEES are 12-31   against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last couple of seasons.BALTIMORE is 42-15 L/57 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher and 13-2  against the money line in home games in April games dating back to last season.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the moneyline 

Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. Angels RH Ricky Nolasco (0-1, 4.76)

Nolasco had a 5.13 ERA in 21 starts for Minnesota last year but a 3.21 ERA in 11 starts for the Angels. Im betting his true talents lay somewhere between those two polarities. He is not a bad pitcher, but not great either, and is fade material for me in this spot vs former Cy Young award winner and Mariners starting pitcher today Felix Fernandez.  I know Seattles offense has not been very productive so far this season, but from a longer term trends perspective the   Mariners are 32-14 against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span. Edge goes to the Mariners in this game.

Mariners are 11-5 in Hernandezs last 16 starts vs. Angels. Nolasco is 1-4 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 4.60. 

Mariners are 4-1 in Hernandezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.Angels are 16-35 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

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Braves RH R.A. Dickey (2016: 10-15, 4.46 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Chad Kuhl (2016: 5-4, 4.90)

The Pirates starter Kuhl is at the moment is in the lower rankings of my pitcher assessment tables. The righty made 14 starts as a rookie in 2016, and despite of some possible future upside, is fade material at the moment . The Pirates starter did not pitch well at home last season in PNC, walking 14 in 24 1/3 innings while recording  a ugly 7.03 ERA, with opposition batters clubbing him for a ..330 BA  Meanwhile, the visiting Braves, are  a team I have pegged for improvement this season, and look like viable value line  bets with, veteran knuckleballer, RA Dickey going to the hill. Dickey had a off season, last year, but continued to pitch well on the road by recording a  (7-7, 3.56 ERA). I know the Braves have struggled to produce runs through four games, but my pitcher to batter cross reference data suggests a above average  break out day in this spot. 

Pirates are 7-18 in their last 26 home games and  are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 11-3 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 16-5 in their last 21 during game 2 of a series.PITTSBURGH is a sub par 16-21 L/37 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Royals LH Jason Vargas (2016: 0-0, 2.25 ERA) vs. Astros RH Mike Fiers (2016: 11-8, 4.48)

Kansas City is desperate for a win after starting their campaign at 0-3 for the first time since 2001.  Im betting they will be primed to perform in this spot, despite of their current negative run. This bet is based on an overall analysis of pitcher vs batter matchup scenarios, possbile bull pen matchups and pairings. Hey I know the Royals bullpen looked horrible in their series vs Minnesota, and their offense was not much better, but this is a better team than this moneylline suggests. Both these starting  pitchers Fiers/Vargas have not faired well against the others batting order, in the recent past, but my own cross reference matchup predictions tell me we have considerable value backing the desperate visitng Royals in game 1 of this series vs Houston (3-1). 

Royals are 5-0 in Vargas' last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.Royals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.

Play on the KC Royals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

  Rockies RH Antonio Senzatela (MLB debut) vs. Brewers RH Chase Anderson (2016: 9-11, 4.39 ERA) 

Senzatela the Rockies starter has been an extremely strong pitching option in  five seasons in the minors, as is evident by a 41-19 record and an ERA of 2.45 in 88 appearances (87 starts). Im expecting a decent effort from this tenacious young pitcher, and for the Rockies offense that scored 13 runs in the first two games of this series to support his efforts today vs Brewers starter,  Chase Anderson. It must be noted that the Brew Crew hurler  Anderson owns  a bloated  5.30 ERA in 10 career starts against the Rockies. Anderson started 30 games for Milwaukee last season, posting a 4.39 ERA.

MILWAUKEE is 93-145 L/238  against the money line against right-handed starters and is 16-37 against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more which happened yesterday.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Angels RH Garrett Richards (2016: 1-3, 2.34 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Jharel Cotton (2016: 2-0, 2.15)

Richards the Angles starter after injuring his right elbow , decided to bypass Tommy John surgery in the off season and instead use, stem cell injections, went into spring trainng feeling better, but that still did not translate in to great numbers as is evident by a bloated 5.11 ERA in 12 1/2 innings of work. RICHARDS is also 10-1 OVER L/11 in road games in night games  with a combined average of 10.3 rpg going on the scoreboard. Over is 9-2 in Richards' last 11 road starts.

Meanwhile, the As starter Cotton, looks like a solid pitcher, but was a surprise factor last year, and now with opponents getting a better feel for him I'm betting he will be less effective . 

The Angles took a 7-6 victory, yesterday and  I expect another fairly high scoring affair tonight. Over is 3-0-1 in Athletics last 4 during game 3 of a series and they have gone over in 13 straight games in the final game of series when they scored first in their last game, which they did. OAKLAND is 20-9 OVER  in home games after a one run loss over the last 3 seasons. 

Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Angels RH Matt Shoemaker (2016: 9-13, 3.88 ERA) vs. Athletics LH Sean Manaea (2016: 7-9, 3.86)

The As got the win in the opening game of this series last night, but now I expect the Angles to respond in game 2. 

Los Angeles Angels right-hander Matt Shoemaker will make his first start of 2017 on Tuesday night against the Oakland A's after suffering a head fracture last season.Shoemaker started slowly last season and  went 9-13 with a 3.88 ERA last season in 27 starts but was 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts before his season-ending injury, and will be primed to perform here. Shoemaker went 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA in 2014 as a rookie is is a capable hurler . His ptching south paw  opponent, from the Oakland As, Manaea is 0-1 with a 3.55 ERA in two career starts against the Angels, and had an above average rookie campaign last season, but now with a decent scouting report on him may not fair as well in his sophmore campaign. 

Shoemaker is 4-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 career appearances, including nine starts, against Oakland, and was Shoemaker and was 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts against Oakland last season and gets the nod today.

OAKLAND is 11-22 L/33 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125.Athletics are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.Athletics are 1-4 in Manaeas last 5 starts vs. American League West.Road team is 6-0 in home umpire Hernandezs last 6 games behind home plate.

Play on the LA Angels to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

igers RH Justin Verlander (2016: 16-9, 3.04 ERA) vs. White Sox LH Jose Quintana (2016: 13-12, 3.20)

Verlander had a tremendous season in 2016, as is evident by a 1.96 ERA after the All-Star break and was 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three meetings with the White Sox. Meanwhile, Qunintana his Pale Hose pitching opponent has been a consistent hurler, but not a super star by any means and is just 5-4 with a a sighty bloated 4.08 ERA in 17 career starts against the Tigers. 

Tigers are 20-7 in their last 27 during game 1 of a series.Tigers are 5-0 in Verlanders last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.White Sox are 0-7 in Quintanas last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.Tigers are 20-6 in Verlanders last 26 starts vs. White Sox

DETROIT is 18-9 L/27 against the money line in road games in day games .

Play on the Detroit Tigers to win on the moneyine 1 unit reg selection

Angels RH Ricky Nolasco (2016: 8-14, 4.42 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Kendall Graveman (2016: 10-11, 4.11

Angels starter Nalsco had a sub par season , last year, but it s quality hurler, and that was evident towards the end of the season,  when he went 3-0 while allowing one unearned run over his last three outings of his 2016 campaign.Nolasco is 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA and a shutout in seven career starts versus the Athletics and looks like a solid starter to back tonight in Oakland against a team that has finsihed last in its division two years in a row. I expect the Halos super star  Trout  who hit .315 with 29 home runs, 100 RBIs and 123 runs last season to be te catalyst for the team on a consistent basis this season and tonight. Meanwhile, Athletics starter Gravermans is  0-7  last 7 starts vs. American League West and is fade material for me when considering opposition lineup expectations.

OAKLAND is 11-22 L33 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons

t. The Angels . are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West.Athletics are 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.Athletics are 4-12 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Athletics are 7-23 in their last 30 vs. American League West.Athletics are 4-17 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series.Angels are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Oakland.

Play on the LA Angels to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Royals LH Danny Duffy (2016: 12-3, 3.51 ERA) vs. Twins RH Ervin Santana (2016: 7-11, 3.38)

Duffy the Royals starter today took a  no-decision in his only start of the year at Minnesota on Sept. 7 . But that was not an indication of his overall performance as he recorded 10 strikeouts in that tilt. In another appearence he earned a victory against the Twins at home on Aug. 21  allowing just one run in 6 2/3 frames and once again looks like a solid pitcher to put some bukcs behind here in this spot. Meanwhile, the Twins starter Santana was 7-11 with a 3.38 ERA last season. He is a quality hurler, but overall is just above average pitcher , even though compared to a rotation that gave up the 2nd most runs in the league, he looks better than he is. 

Overall Kansas City matches up well against anyone in the AL, and will be primed to bounce back off last seasons disappointment with a quick start , vs a Minnesota side that has not won an opener since the 2008 campaign.

MINNESOTA is 16-32 L/48 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 .SANTANA is 8-22  against the money line in all games.DUFFY is 5-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 2.81 and a WHIP of 1.336.

Play on the Kansas City Royals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Blue Jays RH Marco Estrada (2016: 9-9, 3.48 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Kevin Gausman (2016: 9-12, 3.61)

Toronto enters this rematch of last seasons wild card game,that the Jays won looking lIke a soild team despite of ghe loss of Encarncion. The Jays rotation also remains deep enough to make them contenders in the AL again, and a viable bet in their opener today. The Jays starter Estrada is healthier than he was last season with his fast ball clocking in around 90 ph in spring training. The righty hurler owns  a 4-1 record along with a 3.22 ERA in 10 games (eight starts) versus Baltimore.Meanwhile, his opponent Gausman has looked good in spring training but he has been average at best  vs the Jays in his career, as is evident by 2-3 record and a 4.40 ERA. The Os starting hurler GAUSMAN is 8-19 L/27 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 . With that said, I like the Jays on Value line here.

Play on the Blue Jays on the moneyline

MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. CHRIS ARCHER (R)

The Yankees have the tools to win and be a decent team this season,but  how good remains to be seen, behind the likes of newly signed Matt Holliday as well as Aaron Judge C Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird and today's starting pitcher Mashiro Tanaka the ace of the staff. Last season Tanaka was third in the AL with a 3.07 ERA while working 199.2 innings despite of some nagging injuries. This powerful and tenacious hurler when healthy is one of the best in baseball, and I expect after a decent spring will once again be hard to stop. The Japanese wonder kid,  has also pitched well in day time games and has cashed on the moneyline consistently when he starts for his team cashing 10 of his L11 matinee starts. Meanwhile, TB is a side , that I'm betting might be in for another down season, but I'm still debating their overall talent level so I won't get to down on them. However, today I do feel that their starting hurler  Chris Archer is at a disadvantage vs Tanaka who owns a career record of 6-0 vs the Rays with his team winning all 8 of his overall appearances in this series. It must also be noted TBs Chris Archer is just 6-20 on the moneyline in his L/28 starts when the moneyline is between +125 and -125 and has seen his team lost 12 of his L/16 home starts , despite of a decent ERA. With that said, I'm betting on the better pitcher, and offense to bring home the cash in game 1 of this opening day series. (NY Yankees)

This from a MLB data base: MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the Rays  - American League team who had a batting average of .260 or worse last season are  bankroll depleting 46-87 over the L/5 seasons for go against conversion rate of more than 65% for bettors.

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 1.31 ERA) vs. Indians RH Corey Kluber (4-1, 0.89)

I am betting the 108 year drought the Cubs have experienced will come to an abrupt end in Game 7. In my opinion, the superior team is the Cubs. In this type of game intricate handicapping really has no merit, so I will end this with ....Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Before I get into which side  my predicted winner for game 6 will be Ive included some very interesting numerological numbers that have been making the rounds among believers and skeptics alike. Here  they are . Whether they have merit is up to you. But non the less its interesting.  Also just a heads up, my selection tonight is not based on these numbers.

 As most fans know, the Cubs last won the World Series in 1908; 108 years ago. And that number, 108, seems to keep turning up in significant Cubs events.

The biggest moment of the first playoff game against the Giants was Javier Baez's home run, the only run scored in the game. And it came on the 108th pitch.

Grant DePorter, president and managing partner of Harry Caray's Restaurant Group, may be the world's leading expert in Cubs numerology. He wrote a book on the subject, and a huge display in his restaurant documents the significance of number 108.

There's the number of stitches on a baseball: 108. The numbers of the last two Cubs inducted into the Hall of Fame, Ron Santo and Andre Dawson, add up to 108.

"Everywhere you look, it's 108. You just can't get away from it," DePorter said.

He could go on for days about the numbers. Some of the highlights:

-Wrigley Field was assigned planned development no. 108 in the city out of more than 1,300 assigned

-The Cubs' lawsuit for lights at Wrigley in 1988 is documented in volume 108 of the Supreme Court

-The distance to Wrigley foul poles in right and left fields is 108 meters

-The first World Series game at Wrigley was on October 8th, or 10/8

-The Cubs' last World Series game win was also on 10/8

DePorter believes the next win will be this year.

"In our lifetime, they've never been a better team," he said.

 Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (1-1, 3.78 ERA) vs. Indians RH Josh Tomlin (2-0, 1.76)

Arrieta took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in Game 2 at Cleveland and ended up with the win, his first of the postseason and I am betting he is going to be golden again this Tuesday as Game 7 looms. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 29-9 L/38 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 .ARRIETA is 24-4 L/28 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.Cubs are 40-15 in Arrietas last 55 starts.Road team is 6-0 in Wests last 6 games behind home plate vs. Chicago.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Cubs starter Lester is 2-0 with three quality starts, an 0.86 ERA and an 0.76 WHIP in 21 innings in the playoffs this year and will give a Cleveland offense that will be rusty from an extended rest fits. Meanwhile, the Indians starter Corey Kluber owns a 0.98 ERA in his L/3 starts and owns a stingy 2.90 ERA at home this season! Kluber in one start vs the Cubbies garnered a 1.17 ERA in a hard luck 2-1 loss. Cleveland's pitching staff, despite injuries to three start pitchers, has given only 15 runs in eight playoff games. 

LESTER is 13-2 UNDER L/15 vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season with an average of 5.1 combined runs going on the scoreboard. KLUBER is 22-8 UNDER  when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 6 rpg going on the scoreboard.HC FRANCONA is 12-2 UNDER  in October games with a combined average of 5.5 rpg going on the board.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Indians RH Corey Kluber (2-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Aaron Sanchez (0-0, 9.53)

Cleveland turns to its ace Tuesday as it attempts to remain perfect in the postseason and complete a sweep of the AL Championship Series against the Blue Jays in Toronto.He shut the Jays down in game 1 of this series and is capable of turing the trick again. The Indians are 5-0 in Klubers last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 playoff games.Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Play on Cleveland Indians to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Blue Jays LH J.A. Happ (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Indians RH Josh Tomlin (1-0, 3.60)

Happ had a career-best 20-4 record this season and also defeated Texas in the ALDS. He has become a real stopper, and Im betting he frustrates Indian batters here again today. I also expect Tomlin will keep the Jays in the yard today and for this tilt to stay on the low side of the number.

Under is 7-0 in Blue Jays last 7 games following a loss.Under is 21-7-1 in Blue Jays last 29 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-0-1 in Tomlins last 7 starts. Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Under is 2-0-2 in Indians last 4 League Championship home games.

Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection

GAME: Toronto Blue Jays (93-73) at Cleveland Indians (97-67)
DATE/TIME: Friday, October 14 - 8:00 PM EST
WHERE: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio

Starting pitchers : Tor- Estrada vs  Cleveland -Kluber 

Both the Jays and the Indians are off sweeps of their divisonal AL series. I was not surprised by either of these outcomes , but was one of the few that had this contrarian line of thought. Now my betting opinion, supports the Indians in game 1 of this series. I watched some  Indians games this season, and really like what I saw. I truely believe this is a top tier team. Meanwhile, Toronto has shown themselves to be wildly inconsistent this season, and nearly missed the play offs. I expect  the now healthy Kluber and the Tribes strong bullpen get the game 1 victory.

Indians are 43-16 in their last 59 home games. Jays are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Indians are 20-8 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter.ndians are 40-19 in Klubers last 59 home starts.

Play on the Cleveland Indians ( Game 1) on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Nationals RH Joe Ross (7-5, 3.43 ERA) or RH Reynaldo Lopez (5-3, 4.91) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 1.69) or LH Julio Urias (5-2, 3.39) 

With the Dodgers trailing the Nationals 2-1 in the best-of-five National League Division Series, manager Dave Roberts has elected to start left-hander Clayton Kershaw in today's must-win Game 4.In his three postseason opportunities pitching on short rest, Kershaw has recorded a 1.89 ERA. He completed seven innings of one-run ball against the New York Mets in Game 4 of the 2015 NLDS. Im betting this game plays out in conservative fashion, and ends up on the low side of the number. Under is 5-0 in Kershaws last 5 home starts vs. Nationals.Under is 21-6 in Nationals last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Under is 9-1 in Kershaws last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 21-6-1 in Kershaws last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10 ERA) vs. Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (2016 playoffs: 1-0, 0.00)

San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner, is the one pitcher in baseball that can be depended on in a win-or-die environment. That's something no pitcher of this generation does any better and I am on him and the  Giants tonight. In his last three games in which San Francisco had to win or go home, Bumgarner has worked 23 scoreless innings, including Wednesday night's 3-0 shutout at the New York Mets in the NL Wild Card Game.Bumgarner vs the Cubs is 8-2 with a 2.25 earned run average in 12 starts, going 2-0 this year with a 1.32 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings. Considering the Cubs struggles against LHP, ( .248 Team BA) Bumgarner and company look like solid bets. Meanwhile, Arrietta the Cubs big time starter, despite of top tier numbers, has not faired all that well of late going 1-2 with a bloated 5.00 ERA in his L/3 starts.

Note: The Giants have won nine straight elimination games, the longest such streak in major-league baseball history.

MLB underdogs like the Cubs with a money line of +100 or higher  - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a top-level team with a .620 win % or better playing a team with a winning record have failed to cash 90 of 128 times on the moneyline, betting this league wide trend is a 70% moneymker. The Giants are also 9-1 against the money line in home games vs. teams like the Cubs whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game dating back to last season.

Play on the SF Giants to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Blue Jays LH J.A. Happ (20-4, 3.18 ERA) vs. Rangers RH Yu Darvish (7-5, 3.41)

After getting clobbered yesterday by a 10-1 count Texas enters this game, with a ugly 1-10 all-time at home in the ALDS. With the Jays starter today AJ Happ  coming off the best season of his career, finishing as one of the major league's three 20-game winners the Rangers look like their miseries will continue .Happ won his only start against Texas this year, limiting the Rangers to one run and six hits over a top tier stretch of seven innings on May 5.Blue Jays are 4-0 in Happs last 4 road starts.Blue Jays are 21-6 in Happs last 27 starts.Rangers are 1-4 in Darvishs last 5 starts vs. Blue Jays. Happ is 13-2  against the money line in day games this season. The Rangers are just 19-34 L/53 against the money line with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games. 

Play on the Toronto Blue Jays to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Blue Jays RH Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA) vs. Rangers LH Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.32 ERA)
Estrada was in good form at the end of the season, allowing a total of two runs in 19 innings over his final three trips to the hill, The Jays are 9-3 in Eastradas last 12 road starts.Meanwhile, the Rangers starter Hamels struggled down the stretch,allowing five or more runs in four of his final six starts. The Jays have hit lefties like Hamels hard, and are 9-2 in their L/11 vs southpaw pitching. It must be noted that Hamels started twice in the postseason against the Jays in 2015 going 0-1 while allowing a total of nine runs (four earned) in 13 1/3 innings of below average work. With that said, there is some good value here taking the Blue Jays in game 1 of this series.
Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff home games. Blue Jays are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Texas.

Play on the Toronto Blue Jays 1 unit on the moneyline

PROBABLE: MADISON BUMGARNER (L)PROBABLE: NOAH SYNDERGAARD (R)
SF Giants starter Bumgarner is 21-4 L/25 against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season like the NY Mets and is 5-0 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.025. It must be noted that SF bats are hot right now, and thats good news for them considering , they are 24-7 against the money line after batting .333 or better over a 3 game span dating back to last season.Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarners last 4 road starts vs. Mets. Giants are 9-3 in their last 12 playoff road games.

Play on the SF Giants to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Orioles RH Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37)

Tillman is the ace of the Baltimore staff but is not in form and  winless in his last three starts while failing to complete six innings in all of those trips to the hill. Tillman is 5-10 with a 5.44 ERA in 24 career starts against the Blue Jays. Here against the explosive Blue Jays, Im betting the Orioles are in trouble. 

Blue Jays are 11-5 in Stromans last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Blue Jays are 5-2 in Stromans last 7 home starts.

From a league wide perspective Road teams like the Orioles have lost 40 of 56 times when the money line is +125 to -125  - poor hitting team (AVG

Pirates RH Ryan Vogelsong (3-7, 5.00 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (13-9, 4.67)

Vogelsong is 0-4 with an 8.78 mark in his last six outings. The righty hurler  is just 3-7 with a 6.02 ERA in 23 games (12 starts) versus the Cardinals. St.Louis needs to win this game to go to have a chance at making the play offs and I am betting they get it.

Pirates are 4-18 in Vogelsongs last 22 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Cardinals are 38-13 in Wainwrights last 51 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 11-1 in Wainwrights last 12 home starts vs. Pirates.Pirates are 0-5 in Vogelsongs last 5 starts vs. Cardinals.

Play on the Cardinals 1 unit reg selection 

Orioles RH Kevin Gausman (8-12, 3.66 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Luis Cessa (4-3, 4.18)
Under is 7-0 in Gausmans last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 during game 3 of a series.Under is 7-0 in Gausmans last 7 starts vs. Yankees.Under is 4-0 in Gausmans last 4 road starts.Under is 5-0 in umpire Bucknors last 5 games behind home plate.

Play on the UNDER  1 unit reg selection 

Astros RH Collin McHugh (12-10, 4.53 ERA) vs. Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (3-3, 4.13) 

McHugh has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his past six starts and has not lost a decision since Aug. 13 against Toronto. He has has seen his team win his L/7 starts vs the Halos and Im betting on another win tonight for the Astros. 

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Padres LH Clayton Richard (3-3, 2.98 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Archie Bradley (7-9, 5.15)

Richard owns a solid record vs the Diamondbacks and is 8-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 12 career starts.Padres are 4-0 in Richards last 4 road starts vs. Diamondbacks.Padres are 6-0 in Richards last 6 starts overall. The DBacks are 0-9  against the money line in home games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season (which just happened). 

Play on the SD Padres to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Indians RH Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26 ERA) vs. Royals RH Edinson Vólquez (10-11, 5.37)

Royals feeling down after being eliminated from post season play, and now start Edinson Volquez on Saturday. He is 0-1 with a 7.77 ERA and opponents are hitting .324 off him in five September starts. He gave up 12 doubles and four home runs among 33 hits in 24 1/3 innings. Royals are 1-5 in Volquezs last 6 home starts.Royals are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Indians are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. The Indians are  13-1 L/14 against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game like KC. 

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection