Dbacks starter Luke Weaver(RHP1-2, 4.91 ERA, 23 SO) was not sharp in his last start against the Rockies, as he allowed three runs over four innings in a no-decision. Over his past three starts, the right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA and Im betting he will be cannon fodder again today vs a under rated and sometimes explosive Miami batting order. Meanwhile, Miami starter Pablo Lopez despite of some good numbers, does not matchup well vs a Arizona batting order that is averaging 5.4 rpg, and has show spark of late putting 21 runs on the board in their L/3 tilts. Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

MIAMI is 93-69 OVER in night games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 9.3 rpg scored. Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

John Means (LHP 3-0, 1.70 ERA, 38 SO)  was dominant once again in his last outing, beating the A's with seven innings of two-run ball. The lefty ace owns a 1.70 ERA across 6 starts this season and is a value proposition at this price. Mariners are 13-27 in their last 40 games vs. a left-handed starter.Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record./

BALTIMORE is 10-5 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.

Play on Baltimore Orioles on the ml 

Pale Hose starter Cease threw his first complete game and shutout Thursday vs. Detroit and has momentum entering this game. 

The White Sox are 13-0 on the ML L/13 since the 2005 season  as a road favorite off a home loss where they never led. White Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

CINCINNATI is 3-10  against the money line after a game they hit 4 or more home runs over the last 3 seasons. Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 home games.

Play on the White Sox to win 

WASHINGTON is 16-3  against the money line rested bullpen - threw  2 or less  innings in each of the last 2 games over the last 3 seasons.

ATLANTA is 13-24  against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.

NBA underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (WASHINGTON) - with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season, with a rested bullpen - threw   2 innings or less  in each of the last 2 games are 27-12 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) - poor team, outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season, after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 49-16 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on Washington to win 

Phillies starter Aaron Nola(RHP2-1, 3.11 ERA, 39 SO) has loved to face the Brewers in his  career going   3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in six career starts against Milwaukee. Im betting he notches another W, here or at least contributes his team getting a victory in this spot play. Note:The Phillies are 12-0 on the ML when Aaron Nola starts as a home -140+ favorite when they lost in his last start.Brewers are 6-16 in their last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Play on Philadelphia  to win 

Blue Jays starter Steven Matz(LHP4-1, 4.00 ERA, 27 SO) is coming off his first rough outing of the season, but opened the year 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA prior to that. Look for the lefty to bounce back after an excellent month of April, as he should be fresh after throwing just 80 pitches last time out and he gets my support here in this spot play as an underdog. note: Matz in 3 road starts owns a 2.60 ERA and a 3-0 record. Meanwhile, As starter Frankie Montas(RHP)2-2, 6.20 ERA, 25 SO is  struggling entering this game a is evident by going 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA over his last two starts. This will be his first career start against Toronto. 

Toronto is 13-2  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse over the last 3 seasons.TORONTO is 25-11  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Blue Jays to win 

Rockies starter Chi Chi Gonzalez(RHP1-0, 3.60 ERA, 12 SO)In three starts, González has posted a 3.00 ERA with his pitch-to-contact, ground-ball style. In his only previous career start at Chase Field on Aug. 19, 2019, González allowed two runs over six innings in a no-decision and gets my support here today vs the Dbacks on a value ML. Meanwhile,  Merril Kelly faced the Rockies earlier this year and allowed six earned runs in six innings at Coors Field and according to my power rankings does not matchup well against them. 

ARIZONA is 0-9  against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 5-22  against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Diamondbacks are 11-24 in their last 35 vs. National League West.Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Diamondbacks are 7-19 in their last 26 during game 4 of a series.

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ARIZONA) - revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 8 runs or more, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 43-64 L/24 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado to win 

Indians starter Zach Plesac(RHP1-3, 5.81 ERA, 18 SO)For the third time in his last four starts, Plesac will face the White Sox. And in each of his first two outings against Chicago, he permitted six runs on seven hits  and Im betting he will actually regress here vs a side that is now very accustomed with his stuff. Note:  Plesac in 2 road starts has recorded a ugly 10.79 ERA.

The White Sox are 28-0 L/28 on the ML as a -125 or greater favorite after they scored in at most two separate innings last game.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor SLG (.410 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games are 18-71 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road teams (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA of 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games are 6-33 L/24 seasons for ago against 85% conversion rate. 

Play on White Sox to win 

Royals starter Brad Keller(RHP2-2, 9.00 ERA, 13 SO) pushed through back-to-back walks in the first inning against the Tigers on Monday to log six frames for his deepest start of the year. He worked around eight hits for two runs and struck out two, needing 103 pitches in the win. He enters this game exhausted which is not a good omen for him to lower his ugly 9.00 ERA. 

The Royals are 0-13 L/13 on the ML as a road dog coming off a road game in which they won by 5+ runs.

MLB Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 12-45 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on the Minnesota Twins to win 

Astros starter Cristian Javier(RHP3-0, 0.87 ERA, 26 SO) enters the game on a 17-inning scoreless streak, which has spanned three starts. He threw five scoreless innings April 8 and April 22, and threw a career-high seven scoreless, with two hits, on Tuesday against the Mariners. Solid hurler deserves respect and the ability to go deep makes the Astros a solid wagering opportunity. Rays starter HILL is 0-6  against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)The Astros are 10-0 L/10 on the ML when Cristian Javier starts after he averaged more than 3.9 pitches per batter in his last start.  Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

 Play on Houston to win 

Cards  starter MARTINEZ is 13-3 UNDER after giving up 1 or less  earned runs in his last 2 outings in his career. (Team's Record) Meanwhile, Wil Crowe (RHP)0-0, 3.86 ERA, 5 SO has been effective in preventing runs. He allowed four hits and two walks, but only one run in his last start and Im betting will do his part here in helping the combined score of todays game remaining on the low side of the total.

The Cards took out the Pirates yesterday by a 12-5 count and in the past this has signaled what has been a low scoring affair in the followup. ST LOUIS is 11-0 UNDER  after scoring 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 5.7 rpg scored.

Play UNDER

Red Sox starting southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)(4-0, 3.52 ERA, 26 SO  )has been the rotation's most consistent arm, having gone at least five innings in each of his four starts, reaching seven in his last outing vs. the Mariners. In four career starts vs. Texas, Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 4.44 ERA. He gets my support again in this spot. 

RODRIGUEZ is 17-1  against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

The Red Sox are 11-0 on the ML when Eduardo Rodriguez starts on the road after he pitched a quality start in his last start.

BOSTON is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings are 11-52 L/24 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (BOSTON) - starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest, ice cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 5 games are 72-23 L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Bosox to win 

Jack Flaherty (RHP4-0, 3.18 ERA, 27 SO)The ace of the Cardinals' staff is in top form of late , with a 4-0 record, a 1.50 ERA and an opponents' OPS of .475 over his past four outings. Flaherty went 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA against the Pirates last season, with 17 strikeouts against two walks and gets my support in this spot play. FLAHERTY is 6-1 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 1.89 and a WHIP of 0.895.

ST LOUIS is 9-2 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.

Cardinals are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Pittsburgh.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ST LOUIS) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (.400 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games of 101-38 L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on St.Louis Cardinals to win 

 Chicago's starting pitchers have a 9.55 ERA and have allowed 34 hits, including nine home runs, as the club has gone 1-4 to start a seven-game trip. Jake Arrieta allowed seven runs and three homers over 3 1/3 innings Friday and now Davies who owns a ugly 12.15 ERA in his L/4 starts looks to be cannon fodder vs a Reds team that has averaged 7.8 rpg at home this season. Meanwhile Reds starter Castillo (1-2, 6.29 ERA) has lasted more than five innings just once in five starts, and opponents are batting .311 in his three home starts. With a Reds bullpen that owns a nasty 6.49 ERA at home Im betting that even an  inconsistent Cubs offence will have a positive output in this spot. This Im betting leads to a combined score that eclipses this total.CHICAGO CUBS are 12-2 OVER  as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored. Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-0 in Reds last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 home games.Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

Play OVER

 Indians starter Triston McKenzie (RHP 0-0, 4.32 ERA, 23 SO) is winless in three starts this season as he's trying to find his command of the strike zone. The 23-year-old has allowed 14 walks and struck out 23 hitters in 16 2/3 innings this season. McKenzie has given up four home runs, with two coming in his last start against the Yankees and  is fade material in his current form.  Meanwhile, Pale Hose starter Lance Lynn (RHP 1-1, 0.92 ERA, 27 SO)has been sidelined retroactive to April 17 with a right trapezius strain. But after the White Sox have taken their time with his recovery early in the season, he figures to be back in this series vs. Cleveland.The White Sox are 27-0 L/27 on the ML as a -125 or greater favorite after they scored in at most two separate innings last game.

CHI WHITE SOX are 38-15  against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. LARUSSA is 65-27  against the money line in home games vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game in all games he has managed since 1997.

MLB team (CHI WHITE SOX) - good AL offensive team (5.1  or better runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or worse ), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the White sox to win 

KANSAS CITY is 13-5  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

The Twins are 0-8 L/8 on the ML coming off a home game in which they held a multiple-run lead which was the case yesterday.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or worse ) against a top level starting pitcher (ERA 3.60, or less WHIP 1.300 or less ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL are 47-74 L/24 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas city to win 

 Logan Webb(RHP1-1, 4.03 ERA, 24 SO)enjoyed his best start of the season against the Marlins on Sunday, when he tossed seven scoreless innings and matched a career high with eight strikeouts. He has a 1.80 ERA in three career games against San Diego. Meanwhile, Padres ace, Yu Darvish(RHP2-1, 2.27 ERA, 37 SO)The Padres traded for Yu Darvish to be their ace. And he's looked the part. Darvish has allowed only one run in each of his past four starts, and he has lasted at least six innings in all four, giving up a total of just 11 hits in that span.

SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.

SAN DIEGO is 9-1 UNDER in home games against right-handed starters this season

SAN FRANCISCO is 14-3 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Play UNDER

Michael Pineda(RHP1-1, 2.42 ERA, 22 SO)  is looking to bounce back from his shortest outing this season, in which he went 4 1/3 innings and allowed four earned runs against the Pirates. Despite the rough outing, Pineda has been one of Minnesota's best starters this season. His 2.42 ERA and .193 opposing batting average rank second in the Twins' rotation and his overall form givers me the confidence to back him here today. PINEDA is 11-1  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The Twins are 19-0 L/19  on the ML  as a -140 or greater favorite after a 5+ run win as a road favorite last game.

MLB  Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.50 or less ) (AL), cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 10 games are 4-36 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play on the Minnesota Twins to win 

Antonio Senzatela(RHP1-3, 5.76 ERA, 15 SO)  held the D-backs to four hits in eight scoreless innings on April 7, but he is 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA in nine career games at Chase Field and after recently showing control issues is fade material in this spot.The Rockies are 0-10 on the ML when Antonio Senzatela starts as a road dog when their bullpen gave up runs in each of their last two games.Rockies are 8-23 in their last 31 vs. National League West. 

Play on the Dbacks to win 

White Sox starter Cease has nine career wins, with a 5-0 record vs. Detroit and gets my support here again today. 

DETROIT is 0-13  against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season.

MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - after a game without an extra base hit are 47-3 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less are 7-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago White Sox to win 

As a Padre,Brewers starter Lauer was 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against L.A.

 Brewers Im betting bounce back after yesterdays loss. Note: Milwaukee  are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss.

MLB Road teams (LA DODGERS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 45-95 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to win 

As a Padre,Brewers starter Lauer was 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against L.A. LAs starter Trevor Bauer Over his last three games, Bauer is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 19 innings. Opponents hit .138 off Bauer in those three games. Both these starters will help keep this game on the low side of the total. 

MILWAUKEE is 30-12 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 3 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 10-1 UNDER  as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons.

BAUER is 31-11 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)BAUER is 9-1 UNDER vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Play on UNDER

Giants starter Alex Wood(LHP)2-0, 0.75 ERA, 11 SOWood has given up only one run on four hits over 12 innings in his first two starts of the year, both of which came against the Marlins and has momentum on his side going into this matchup. 

The Rockies are 0-10 L/10 on the ML when their starter  German Marquez starts on the road when they won as an home favorite in his last start. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-3   against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher like Marquez who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Giants to win 

BoSox starter Nick Pivetta(RHP2-0, 3.48 ERA, 18 SO)The righty had a solid last outing vs. Seattle on Thursday, giving up two runs on one hit and striking out four in six innings and my support here on a bloated runline offering. BOSTON is 8-1   against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. DEGROM is 10-14  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Mets top tier starter DEGROM is 10-14   against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DeGrom has never beaten the Red Sox in 3 career starts. 

Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games as an underdog.Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 road games.

Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East. Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Red Sox are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.

 .MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (NY METS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL are 5-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Red Sox to win 

Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw(LHP)3-2, 2.56 ERA, 31 SOAfter allowing five runs on Opening Day against the Rockies, Kershaw is 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA over his last four starts and gets my support here today . KERSHAW is 80-28  against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)

The Reds are 0-16 on the ML coming off a game as a road dog where they scored first, then trailed and came back to win.

Play on the Dodgers to win 

The Twins are 0-12  UNDER L/12 past the first game of a series as a favorite off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 5+ walks with none of the games eclipsing this total. 

Under is 18-7-3 in Twins last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 18-7-3 in Twins last 28 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 5-2-2 in Twins last 9 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 21-9-2 in Twins last 32 games following a loss.Under is 9-4-1 in Twins last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 13-6-2 in Twins last 21 during game 3 of a series.

Under is 10-4 in Indians last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Under is 47-22-3 in Indians last 72 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CLEVELAND) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or worse  over his last 3 starts, after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 58-22 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Padres starter C.Paddack has been shaky, allowing 14 runs across 18 innings, and is fade material in his current form. 

KELLY the Dbacks starter is 7-0  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

The Diamondbacks are 10-0 L/10 on the ML in the first game of a series with rest after they allowed 6 or fewer hits last game.

ARIZONA is 10-2 against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.

ARIZONA is 19-4  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Arizona to win 

KELLY the Dbacks starter is 13-3 UNDER  when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) 

The Padres are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a favorite after they had a comeback win last game.

 ARIZONA is 12-3 UNDER vs. poor fielding teams - averaging 0.75+ errors/game over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SAN DIEGO) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start are 45-15 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Carlos Martinez ( RHP 0-4, 6.00 ERA, 13 SO)  is prone to inconsistent starts and according to pitcher vs batting order  power rankings matches up badly vs the Phillies. Meanwhile, Phillies starter EFLIN is 18-6 OVER  in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)The Cardinals are 9-0 OVER L/9 when Carlos Martinez starts at home when they lost in his last start.EFLIN is 11-1 OVER in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing since 1997. (Team's Record) which was the case last time out with a combined average of 11.6 rpg. 

Play OVER 

Dodgers starter Julio Urias(LHP3-0, 2.81 ERA, 26 SO) struck out a career-high 11 over seven innings vs. the Mariners in his last start start. The left-hander has not lost a decision since Aug. 9, 2019, against the D-backs. Risne and repeat again today. 

The Reds are 0-9 L/9 on the ML when Tyler Mahle starts as a road dog when they lost in his last start.

CINCINNATI is 0-6  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.

LA DODGERS are 61-18 against the money line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams (CINCINNATI) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  0.800 or less over his last 3 starts is 67-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dodgers to win 

Anthony DeSclafani(RHP1-0, 2.14 ERA, 21 SO ) gave up three runs over four innings in his last start against the Phillies on Wednesday, which was interrupted by a rain delay. He is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA over four career starts against the Rockies.

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0  against the money line rested bullpen - threw 2 or less innings in each of the last 2 games over the last 3 seasons.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games, well rested bullpen - threw  2 or less innings in each of the last 3 games are 35-6  for a 86% conversion rate. 

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games are 99-48 L/24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

Play on Seattle to win 

Atlantas Charlie Morton(RHP1-1, 3.91 ERA, 27 SO)

has felt good about his curveball in both of his previous two starts. The veteran will be pitching with an extra day of rest. He limited the Yankees to one run over six innings on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Zach Davies(RHP)(1-2, 8.80 ERA, 10 SO)Davies has a 12.10 ERA in his past three starts (9 2/3 innings), which includes allowing four runs in four innings to the Braves on April 16. He gave up two runs in four innings vs. the Brewers in his last start on Wednesday and is fade material in his current form. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 4-11 against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

The Cubs are 0-14 L/14 on the ML as a road dog of at least +140 after they were shutout last game.

Play on the Braves to win 

As starter Sean Manaea(LHP2-1, 3.04 ERA, 22 SO)  has been dominant over his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA, including a shutout of the Twins his last time out and Im betting that momentum carries on into this tilt, and will be a contributing factor in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

MANAEA is 22-8 UNDER after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing since 1997. (Team's Record)

Under is 6-0 in Athletics last 6 on astroturf.Under is 7-1-2 in Athletics last 10 vs. American League East.

Under is 9-3-1 in Rays last 13 vs. American League West.

Play UNDER 

Twins starter Zach Plesac (RHP1-3, 6.75 ERA, 14 SO) has gotten off to a tough start, taking the loss in three of his first four outings. Although he has issued only two walks and struck out 14 in 18 2/3 innings, opposing hitters are batting .299 against him and is fade material in its current form.  Meanwhile, Twins starting hurler Jose Berrios (RHP2-2, 3.00 ERA, 30 SO)leads the Twins' pitching staff with 30 strikeouts in 21 innings this season. He took a tough-luck loss against the A's in his last outing due to a lack of run support despite allowing one run in five innings and get my support in this spot play. 

CLEVELAND is 5-17  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB team (CLEVELAND) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, starting a pitcher who was rocked for 6+ runs in his last 2 outings are 4-31 L/5 seasons for a go against  88% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Any team (CLEVELAND) - starting a pitcher who was rocked for 6+ runs in his last 2 outings, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games are 5-31 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on Minnesota Twins to win 

Comparing both star4ting pitchers and their bullpens vs the opposing offenses has me recommending we take an under stance here in this spot play.

Under is 5-2-1 in Reds last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following a win.

Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in St. Louis.

 CINCINNATI is 23-8 UNDER  after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 3 seasons.

MLB teams where the total is 7 or less (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 2 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 28-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Michael Kopech(RHP1-0, 1.69 ERA, 17 SO)Kopech will get his second start of the 2021 season during Sunday's series finale against the Rangers. Kopech takes the place of Lucas Giolito, who was pushed back following a cut to the top of his middle finger. This hurler is one of the most under rated hurlers in the majors according to my power rankings and matches up well vs the Rangers batting order. 

The White Sox are 24-0  L/24 on the ML  as a -125+ favorite after they scored in no more than two separate innings last game.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (TEXAS) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts, cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 10 games are 9-61 L/24 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the White Sox to win 

Luis Patino(RHP0-0, -.-- ERA, 0 SO)The headliner of the Rays' return from the Padres for Blake Snell, Patiño will make his second Major League start in his Rays debut against the Jays. He's stretched out to pitch at least four innings. Lefty Josh Fleming will also pitch for Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Ryu the Jays starter despite of remaining a top tier pitcher has seen his velocity decrease recently , which might be a troubling scenario that signals some other issues. 

The Blue Jays are 0-16 L/16 on the ML past the first game of a series as a road dog after they allowed 6 or fewer hits last game.

TAMPA BAY is 16-4  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

TAMPA BAY is 24-9  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (TORONTO) - ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. are 44-94 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Tampa Bay to win 

MIAMI is 22-17 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog.

Play on the Marlins to win 

 Gibson has pitched well for the Rangers this season, but Im betting the way his teams offence has been operating, that he wont be able to win this game on his own. 

TEXAS is 3-16  against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB team (TEXAS) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after allowing 8 runs or more are 7-31 L/5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games are 7-48 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the White sox to win 

Shane Bieber(RHP2-1, 2.45 ERA, 48 SO) has notched 11 or more strikeouts in each of his first four starts, fanning 48 over that stretch. The last time he went head-to-head with Cole was in Game 1 of the 2020 American League Wild Card Series, in which Bieber allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 innings of a loss.BIEBER is 1-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 10.12 and a WHIP of 1.874.  Two quality hurlers here, but there is enough efficient offense for this number to be eclipsed. 

NY YANKEES are 15-4 OVER in road games against AL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NY YANKEES are 30-11 OVER in road games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 3 seasons.

 MLB teams where the total is 7 or less (NYY/ CLEVELAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 29-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The Angels are 0-13 ML L/13 past the first game of a series as a dog off a road game in which they had 12+ hits.

Play on the Astros to win 

Nationals matchup well against the Mets starter Stroman. I know Stroman has started hot but he is one of baseballs most inconsistent starters despite of his talents. 

NY METS are 4-11  against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. NY METS are 4-16  against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.

 MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (WASHINGTON) - after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, a bad team, winning 38% to 46% of their games on the season are 26-11 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

Play on the Nationals to win 

The Twins are a bad matchup for the Pirates according to my power rankings. I look for the Twins to tee off on Trevor Cahill

who  allowed five runs in the first inning of Saturday's loss to the Brewers, which was the third time in three Cahill starts this season that an opponent scored in the first. Cahill will look to end that stretch against the Twins.

  Pirates are 3-12 in their last 15 interleague road games.Pirates are 5-23 in their last 28 interleague games.

PITTSBURGH is 0-13,against the money line in road games after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 12-1  against the money line in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 21-8  against the money line vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 3 seasons.

The Twins are 10-0 L/10 on the ML past the first game of a series as a favorite after they scored 3 runs or less and won last game.

The Twins are 9-0 L/9 on the ML when Michael Pineda starts after he had a WHIP of less than 1.00 in his last start.

MLB Road teams (PITTSBURGH) - revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a losing record are 26-61 5 seasons for a go against  71% conversion rate. 

Play on the Twins to win 

The Marlins are 0-10  UNDER since Sep 13, 2018 when Sandy Alcantara starts in the regular season after he had a WHIP of less than 1.00 in his last start with a combined average of 5 rpg scored and no more than 7 in any of the 10 tilts. 

ALCANTARA is 9-0 UNDER in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

SAN FRANCISCO is 11-2 UNDER  in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

Play UNDER

LA ANGELS are 19-52 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better over the last 3 seasons.

The Nationals are 11-0 on the ML on the road when they are off two straight one-run wins with 8 wins seeing their opponents core 1 run or less. 

NY METS are 3-11 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Washington Nationals to win 

OAKLAND is 11-1 against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.

OAKLAND is 8-0 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

HYDE is 6-34  against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better) as the manager of BALTIMORE

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (OAKLAND) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oakland to win 

Cubs Hendricks spun six shutout innings vs. Milwaukee on April 7 and matches up well vs this Brewers batting order. Meanwhile, Anderson the Brewers starter has only has 1 bad inning in the 17 innings he has pitched in this season, and once again looks like a viable pitching opponent. 

MILWAUKEE is 21-7 UNDER in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

CHICAGO CUBS are 23-7 UNDER  when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO CUBS are 15-3 UNDER in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO CUBS are 14-3 UNDER    at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

Play UNDER 

Ryan Weathers(LHP)1-0, 0.93 ERA, 10 SO

  again will start the first game of a series vs. the rival Dodgers. On Friday, he pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings in his first big league start. He allowed one hit and walked two. He has the tools to go farther here today and control of the Dodgers potent offence. Meanwhile, Dodgers starter   Walker Buehler(RHP1-0, 2.00 ERA, 12 SO) has pitched exactly six innings in each of his three starts, allowing two runs or fewer in all three. Against the Padres on Friday, Buehler allowed two runs and struck out four. More of the same pitching action from the top tier veteran is on tape again. 

Look for both strong bullpens to also help these starters and for the combined score to stay on the low side of the number. 

BUEHLER is 15-3 UNDER in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) BUEHLER is 24-7 UNDER  as a home favorite of -150 or more since 1997. (Team's Record)

SAN DIEGO is 10-0 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive home games this season.SAN DIEGO is 8-0 UNDER  after 3 or more consecutive home games this season.

LA DODGERS are 9-1 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. 

Play UNDER

Red Sox Nick Pivetta(RHP2-0, 3.68 ERA, 14 SO) has looked fairly decent from a records perspective , but truth is his control is has been lousy and ready to implode after recording 11 walks o far. Meanwhile,  the inconsistent Mariners  starter Justin Dunn (RHP1-0, 3.72 ERA, 9 SO) was much more in the strike zone in his second start of the season after throwing a career-high eight walks in his debut and is not a viable option for the Yankees vs the Mariners batting order. 

The Red Sox are 10-0 OVER L/10 at home after they allowed 5+ walks last game.

SEATTLE is 15-5 OVER in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11 rpg scored. 

BOSTON is 25-13 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 10.9 rpg scored. 

Play OVER 

Indians starter Aaron Civale(RHP) 3-0, 2.18 ERA, 16 SO will look to secure his fourth win of the season. Last time out, he permitted just one run on five hits with four strikeouts and two walks in six innings against the White Sox on April 15, throwing a season-high 99 pitches. Meanwhile, Yankees starter Domingo German(RHP) (0-2, 9.00 ERA, 7 SO ) Germán will be recalled from the alternate training site, having been demoted after permitting four runs and eight hits in four innings against the Rays on April 10. Germán is fade material in his current form.  

The Indians are 11-0 L/11 on the ML at home off a game as a dog in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks.

NY YANKEES are 0-6 \against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season this season.

 CLEVELAND is 27-4  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - poor fielding team - averaging 0.75+ errors/game on the season, after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games are 9-30 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play on Cleveland to win 

Michael Wacha(RHP1-1, 4.20 ERA, 20 SO)is coming off a dominant start against the Yankees in which he struck out nine and allowed just one hit over six innings. He owns a 3-1 record and 3.24 ERA in four career starts in Kansas City and Im betting he helps his team connect on a  3 game sweep   of the Royals.Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. American League Central. Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.

TAMPA BAY is 18-3  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Tampa Bay to win 

Jose QuintanaLHP0-1, 16.20 ERA, 9 SO  has struggled with his command, walking seven in five innings. He allowed seven runs (five earned) in 1 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays in his last start and is big time fade material in his current form. Note: LA ANGELS are 3-9  against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons which was the case yesterday. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (TEXAS) - with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last 5 games against opponent with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games are 23-10 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Rangers to win 

Austin Gomber(LHP0-2, 3.52 ERA, 14 SO) held the Dodgers to three runs in six innings in his last start, and was in position for a win. He’s also taken major steps forward with his best pitch, the curveball and fits into a under rated category for me. Meanwhile, Jose Urquidy(RHP0-1, 4.50 ERA, 19 SO)  is looking for his first win of the season. He is the only Astros starting pitcher to reach 100 pitches in a game so far this year, throwing 101 pitches April 10 against Oakland. He also fits into the under rated category which makes it an easy decision to take the under here on a value total. COLORADO is 7-0 UNDER   vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season. COLORADO is 10-2 UNDER  against right-handed starters this season. 

Under is 9-2-2 in Astros last 13 during game 2 of a series. Under is 23-10-3 in Astros last 36 interleague road games.

Play UNDER 

RODRIGUEZ is 16-1  against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)RODRIGUEZ is 14-0  against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 11-52 L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win 

Urías is in bad form after  allowing five runs (four earned) over six innings Thursday vs. Colorado. In his past two starts, Urías has allowed eight runs (seven earned) over 11 2/3 innings. More of the same negative action here will help the combined score eclipse this total. 

URIAS is 12-2 OVER  as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

URIAS is 10-0 OVER   vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

URIAS is 11-0 OVER  vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Play over

Joe Musgrove (RHP2-1, 0.47 ERA, 24 SO) It's Musgrove's first start in San Diego since he became a local hero by authoring the first no-no in franchise history. It's already been an eventful home-stand.  Musgrove was honored for his no-no on Friday, then he played left field in extra innings.Meanwhile, Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff(RHP)0-0, 2.12 ERA, 19 SO  finds the right tempo in his delivery, he pitches like an ace. He fought that throughout his last start against the Cubs, but he still delivered six innings of one-run ball, with one walk and six strikeouts.MILWAUKEE is 13-2 UNDER  in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.WOODRUFF is 8-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)WOODRUFF is 11-1 UNDER   in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive home games this season.

Play on the UNDER 

Joe Musgrove (RHP2-1, 0.47 ERA, 24 SO) It's Musgrove's first start in San Diego since he became a local hero by authoring the first no-no in franchise history. It's already been an eventful home-stand.  Musgrove was honored for his no-no on Friday, then he played left field in extra innings.Meanwhile, Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff(RHP)0-0, 2.12 ERA, 19 SO  finds the right tempo in his delivery, he pitches like an ace. He fought that throughout his last start against the Cubs, but he still delivered six innings of one-run ball, with one walk and six strikeouts.MILWAUKEE is 13-2 UNDER  in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.WOODRUFF is 8-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)WOODRUFF is 11-1 UNDER   in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive home games this season.

Play on the UNDER 

Dylan Bundy(RHP0-1, 3.32 ERA, 22 SO) has been off to a strong start and is coming off a solid outing against the Royals. He gave up two earned runs over seven innings with six strikeouts in a loss. In his current form he is a good bet here even at a higher price than I usually pay. 

TEXAS is 4-18 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (TEXAS) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 37-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TEXAS) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 17-61 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Angels to win 

Boyd is a strong hurler for Detroit but he does not matchup well vs this As batting order. 

DETROIT is 4-21 against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

OAKLAND is 19-4 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

OAKLAND is 31-7  against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

OAKLAND is 9-1 against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons

MLB  Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 19-57 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oakland to win 

Jays starter Ray according to my projections does not matchup well vs the Royals lineup. 

RAY is 15-30  against the money line in day games since 1997. 

KANSAS CITY is 23-17 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Home teams (KANSAS CITY) - ice cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 77-42 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on the Royals to win 

Phillies starter NOLA is 4-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.35 and a WHIP of 0.887.  NOLA is 29-14 UNDER  vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in his career. (Team's Record)NOLA is 24-10 UNDER  as a favorite of -150 or more in his career. (Team's Record)

Under is 11-5-1 in Cardinals last 17 games as an underdog. 

Play UNDER 

Gerrit Cole RHP(2-0, 1.47 ERA, 29 SO)In his last start, Cole settled in after a rocky beginning to retire the final 15 batters he faced in a 3-1 win over the Blue Jays. Keep in mind that Cole has a 1.52 ERA in nine starts with catcher Kyle Higashioka, including the playoffs, and thats the expected pairing here today.

BOONE is 53-18 against the money line in home games after a loss as the manager of NY YANKEES.BOONE is 32-11 against the money line after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse as the manager of NY YANKEES.

MLB team (TAMPA BAY) - starting a pitcher who was rocked for 6+ runs in his last 2 outings, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games are 4-31 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate.

Play on the Yankees to win 

Dane Dunning(RHP1-0, 1.00 ERA, 11 SO)The rookie looks to continue his early season dominance. After giving up a home run in his first inning of 2021, Dunning has pitched eight scoreless innings and garners support here in his current form.TEXAS is 6-1 against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons.Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series. 

Rangers are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. American League East.

Rangers are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win 

Erick Fedde(RHP0-1, 8.53 ERA, 6 SO)  continues to step up in the starting rotation while Jon Lester ramps up. This will be his third start of the season. On Monday, Fedde held the Cardinals to one run on two hits and two walks over 4 2/3 innings. Meanwhile,Luke Weaver(RHP ,1-0, 2.13 ERA, 11 SO) had one of his finest outings since early in the 2019 season last time out against the Reds. He carried a perfect game into the sixth and a no-hitter into the seventh before settling for seven one-hit shutout innings and enters this game in top form.ARIZONA is 9-1 UNDER  on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.LOVULLO is 33-18 UNDER  in road games vs. NL teams allowing 5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of ARIZONA.Under is 8-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 11 during game 3 of a series.Under is 9-4 in Nationals last 13 vs. National League West.

Play UNDER 

Andrew HeaneyLHP1-1, 7.00 ERA, 13 SOHeaney bounced back from a rough season debut to throw six scoreless innings against the Blue Jays on Friday. He scattered three hits and two walks, while striking out nine. But in this matchup vs the Twins my power rankings suggest he does matchup well vs the Twins batting order.  

Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record and are 5-0 L/5 meetings vs the Halos. 

LA ANGELS are 6-15  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

BALDELLI is 24-14 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 as the manager of MINNESOTA.

Play on Minnesota to win 

Jorge LopezRHP(0-2, 11.42 ERA, 9 SO) last start, vs. the Red Sox, he was hurt by two home runs, and he struggled with walks in the prior outing (April 5). All told, the righty has allowed 11 runs over his first two starts, striking out nine and is fade material in his current form.  TEXAS is 21-9  against the money line in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons .

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - poor offensive team - scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 12-42 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on Texas to win 

BOSTON is 9-0  against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season.BOSTON is 8-0  against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons.BOSTON is 7-0 (+7.9 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season.

Play on the Red Sox to win 

This pick is based on value according to current matchup stats. Advantage Pittsburgh.

CINCINNATI is 22-39 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.

 MLB team (CINCINNATI) - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL), with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 14-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Giants to win 

Brad   Keller will look to turn things around against the Angels after two short starts to open the season. He allowed four runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings last week against the White Sox, with three walks and three strikeouts.  The righty likes pitching here at home and deserves respect on a value line .  KELLER is 6-0   against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)KANSAS CITY is 21-9 (against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. 

Royals are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Royals are 11-4 in their last 15 home games.

Angels are 18-40 in their last 58 road games.

Angels are 8-21 in their last 29 during game 3 of a series.

Play on the Royals to win 

Over the past three years, Yarbrough has led the Rays in innings (344 2/3) despite making only 29 starts during that span and being introduced as a bulk-innings pitcher in 2018 and must not be underestimated in his ability to long here vs a struggling Texas offence. Since his debut in 2018, no pitcher with at least 300 innings has recorded a lower average exit velocity than Yarbrough’s 84.6 mph mark, according to Statcast. Yarbourgh gets my support. 

MLB  Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (TEXAS) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 2-37 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate. 

Play on the Rays to win 

Tyler  RHP(0-0, 0.75 ERA, 15 SO)Glasnow will look to continue his excellent start to the season, having allowed just one run while striking out 15 in 12 innings over two starts. He has a career 3.92 ERA with 110 strikeouts in 78 innings over 16 starts at Tropicana Field and gives us an edge here with the home chalk. 

Tampa Bay is according to my power rankings the far superior side here today and deserve my support on a favorite line that requires laying some heavy lumber. 

TEXAS is 1-15 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. TEXAS is 0-10  against the money line in road games with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (TEXAS) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 2-36 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TEXAS) - poor offensive team - scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 6-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to win 

Atlantas starter Drew Smyly(LHP) 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 8 SO  curveball was effective as he recorded eight strikeouts and allowed just two earned runs in his season debut against the Nationals and looks like a viable option in this spot. Meanwhile,   Phillies Matt Moore(LHP)0-0, 5.40 ERA, 4 SO struggled on Monday in his Phillies' debut. After he retired the first seven batters he faced, striking out four, he lost command of his pitches. He exited after just 3 1/3 innings, and now looks like fade material in his current form.

ATLANTA is 12-0  against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.ATLANTA is 11-0 ( against the money line in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 season.

ATLANTA is 70-27  against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Atlanta to win 

Max Scherzer (RHP)0-0, 6.00 ERA, 9 SO will make his second start of the season after pitching on Opening Day, when he allowed four home runs and struck out nine against the Braves. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw despite of a strong effort last time out has been very inconsistent since spring training and could easily get lit up here a Nationals side that my projections estimate  matches up well against him.  Over is 10-0-1 in Nationals last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Over is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 games as an underdog.

WASHINGTON is 16-3 OVER  against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. WASHINGTON is 12-1 OVER   as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON is 20-7 OVER  vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. 

 Play OVER 

MARQUEZ is 11-3 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)MARQUEZ is 23-15   against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher since 1997. (Team's Record)

MARQUEZ is 23-15  against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher since 1997. (Team's Record)

Play on Colorado to win 

Adrian Morejon(LHP)0-0, 4.50 ERA, 2 SOThus far, the Padres' decision to convert Morejon into a full-time starter has been a smooth one. He was excellent all spring and was sharp in his start against the Giants. Morejon allowed two runs before he was pinch-hit for in the fourth inning. In his current form he gives the Padres the needed edge to get us a win here.  TEXAS is 9-26  against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span over the last 2 seasons.'SAN DIEGO is 23-4  against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (TEXAS) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less ) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season are 31-105 L/24 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego to win  

CHI WHITE SOX are 18-0  against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the White Sox to win 

Atlanta has won 3 straight and beginning to heat up putting 8 runs on the board in a 8-1 win yesterday vs these same Phillies. More of the same action coming today. ATLANTA is 11-0  against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 10-0  against the money line in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Home teams (ATLANTA) - struggling offensive team - scoring 4.0 or less runs/game on the season (NL), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 29-9  L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Braves to win 

Padres have faired well vs Interlegue righties of late and Jordan Lyles Im betting will be another one of a long line of starters that feels the heat of the Padres consistent offence this Saturday.

Padres are 9-0 in their last 9 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.

SAN DIEGO is 22-4  against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

Padres are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

Play on San Diego to win 

Adrian Houser (0-1, 3.60 ERA, 4 SO) when he is on, he's a ground-ball machine. He did a good job of that in his season debut against the Twins following a shaky first inning. He'll be seeing the Cardinals with fresh eyes; Houser didn't start against them last year. Im betting his style matches up well vs the Cards. 

COUNSELL is 24-12  against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span as the manager of MILWAUKEE.

 MLB team (ST LOUIS) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 23-53 L/5 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win 

ADRIAN HOUSER (R) vs. CARLOS MARTINEZ (R)

Both these teams have gone under the total in their L/4 games, and after comparing the starting pitchers and bullpen my projections give us value on a under wager. 

MILWAUKEE is 18-4 UNDER  on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 12-2 UNDER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 18-6 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  62% or better ) over the last 3 seasons.

Under is 8-0 in Brewers last 8 during game 2 of a series. Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 home games.

Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis.

Play on the UNDER 

Reds right hander Tyler Mahle (1-0, 3.60 ERA), 9 SOIn a 9-6 win over the Cardinals on Saturday, Mahle touched 98 mph with his four-seam fastball, and he was getting strikes, as he fanned nine batters over five-plus innings. In his current form he wont be easily hit. Meanwhile, righty Taylor Widener (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 SO  was originally scheduled to pitch Saturday but was moved up a day when Caleb Smith was removed from the rotation. He is still pitching on regular rest because of last Monday's off-day. He provides a good arm here, and with the backup of a vialbe bullpene should limit the Reds flaming hot bats. Under is 10-1 in Reds last 11 vs. National League West. Under is 35-15-1 in Reds last 51 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

MAHLE is 16-6 UNDER vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

CINCINNATI is 22-8 UNDER  on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.BELL is 25-12 UNDER  in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse as the manager of CINCINNATI.Under is 5-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 overall.

Play UNDER

Berríos didn't get a third consecutive Opening Day nod, but he'll start Minnesota's home opener after he held the Brewers hitless over six innings and matched a career-high with 12 strikeouts on April 3 Im betting he shuts down the Mariners while Marco Gonzalez and company do just enough to limit the Mariners in a game I have pegged to go under the total. 

MINNESOTA is 25-7 UNDER  vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 13-1 UNDER in home games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.

Play UNDER 

MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (PITTSBURGH) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games are 32-4 L/25 seasons for a 89% conversion rate.

New York enters Taillon's debut with a major-league leading 1.76 ERA. The Yankees have allowed three runs or less in the first five games of the season for the first time since 1992 and I will recommend we ride the rightys momentum into this tilt vs the Orioles. He was off last season, after Tommy John surgery but looked brilliant in spring training recording a  1-1 record and a 1.08 ERA in four spring games (three starts), striking out 14 against four walks in 8 1/3 innings.

NY YANKEES are 15-0 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

Play on NY Yankees to win 

 Castillos last start vs. the Pirates was a seven-inning, three-hit, 10-strikeout performance during a 1-0 win on Sept. 16, 2020. Im betting on a strong effort here today and for the Reds explosive offense to buoy him. 

PITTSBURGH is 2-20 against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 34-74 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Cincinnati Reds to win 

Lucas Giolito The White Sox ace was solid in his second straight Opening Day start, striking out eight and walking two over 5 1/3 innings. The right-hander’s changeup was especially effective, as he allowed just two runs before leaving and get my support here. GIOLITO is 11-2   against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)Meanwhile, lefty James Paxton who was initially slated to start Game 2 on Friday, but he was pushed back due to what manager Scott Servais summed up to extra rest could easily find the going tough here as his conditioned is in question. Note: 

CHI WHITE SOX are 17-0  against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Chicago White Sox to win 

Dodgers starter Kershaw has made four previous starts against the A's, going 0-0 despite a 1.35 ERA. Kershaw is 21-5 in interleague play, with a 1.71 ERA in three starts in Oakland and today Im betting he holds down the struggling bats of the As after struggling on opening day. Meanwhile, right hander  Chris Bassitt drew the first Opening Day assignment of his career last week against Houston. Though he took the loss, the righty kept the A's in the ballgame, allowing three runs on four hits in 5 1/3 innings and will be primed to help his team get its first win of the season. 

OAKLAND is 11-1 UNDER in home games after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings over the last 3 seasons.

Play UNDER

The Reds can record a fourth straight victory by handing the visiting Pirates their fourth consecutive defeat when the NL Central foes continue their series on Tuesday night and thats what Im betting happens. 

PITTSBURGH is 2-20  against the money line in road games after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 2-19   against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Cincinnati to win

Twins starter J.A. Happ saw some questioning from the media talking heads  as to whether he would be fully prepared for the start of the season, due to a positive COVID-19 test at the start of camp, but he appears to be stretched out and ready to pitch and as far as the covid 19 went showed no real symptoms. Happ had a 3.47 ERA for the Yankees last year.  HAPP is 33-15 (+14.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 since 1997. (Team's Record)  Meanwhile, the Tigers starter Casey Mize  their  top pitching prospect had to fight for a spot while battling command issues in Spring Training, but he still struck out 21 batters over 14 innings. Mize faced the Twins three times last year, posting an 8.49 ERA with 11 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings and is fade material here.  DETROIT is 1-16 against the money line in home games after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Minnesota Twins to win 

CHI WHITE SOX are 16-0 against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Chicago White Sox to win 

Astros starter Luis Garcia   hadn’t pitched above Class A ball before appearing in five games for the Astros in 2020, posting a 2.92 ERA. That included five scoreless innings in his only big league regular-season start Sept. 9. Meanwhile, Halos starter Jose Quintana  is set to make his Angels debut after a strong Spring Training that saw him post a 3.32 ERA in six starts. He was limited to just 10 innings due to injury in 2020 but is fully healthy now. Both hurlers and bullpends according to my projections give us an edge on the under.QUINTANA is 71-44 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997. (Team's Record)BAKER is 141-100 UNDER with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) in all games he has managed since 1997.Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 8-3-2 in Angels last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter. 

Play UNDER 

St.Louis Cards are set  to visit the Miami Marlins on Monday night for the start of a three-game series. The Marlins starter  Rogers ranked second in the majors with 29 strikeouts, earning praise from Marlins manager Don Mattingly. Tonight we will ride what could easily be a surprise standout in the Miami rotation this season. Meanwhile, Cards starter   Ponce de Leon, 29, has made 33 major league appearances, including 20 starts, and his ERA has risen in each of his three seasons (2.73, 3.70 and 4.96). His walk rate per nine innings has also gone up each year (3.5, 4.8 and 5.5) and is fade material according to my projections.

MIAMI is 8-0  against the money line after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. ( Marlins bats exploded yesterday winning by 12-7 count, and that offenive momentum Im betting will buoy them to a win today) 

Play on Miami to win