The Reds have lost 14 of 16 with their rotation ranking last in the major leagues with a 6.21 ERA after an 8-2 loss at St. Louis on Monday and in no way should be considered viable favorites here. Meanwhile, the  Brewers will  start right-hander Junior Guerra, who has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his seven starts and must be considered a playable underdog in this spot. 

The Brewers won their last game 7-0 vs Atlanta and look like strong underdogs in this spot play,

GUERRA is 9-3  against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game.CINCINNATI is 4-17  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.CINCINNATI is 3-17 L/20  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) .MILWAUKEE is 11-4  against the money line in road games after allowing 1 run or less and CINCINNATI is 2-13 against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

The Orioles will start right-hander Kevin Gausman against Blue Jays right-hander Joe Biagini (2-6, 4.43 ERA).In the six starts in between (May 17-June 16), Biagini was 0-5 with a 6.14 ERA. Gausman has also been smacked around, but is 1-0 with a 2.60 ERA in three starts against the Blue Jays this season, and must be given some respect here to perform at the same level he did in recent  previous meetings. Toronto does not qualify as a solid favorite in this spot and according to my own projections this game should be closer to a pickem, with two less than stable pitchers on the hill for each team. Thus there is value with taking the visiting Orioles in this spot play.

Baltimore's offense has smacked out 8 runs in two straight games , and looked like they primed for more production in this spot. It must be noted , MLB  Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like the Blue Jays - after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games are just 10-28 L/38 times, for a go against conversion rate of 74% for underdog bettors.

TORONTO is 3-8 L/11 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season at home.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Trevor Williams (3-3, 5.09 ERA) gets the start for Pittsburgh, while  Tampa Bay, replies with Alex Cobb (6-5, 4.05 ERA). Both pitchers look susceptible to being lit up like Christmas Trees.

TB has seen a combined average of 12.3 rpg scored in their L/7 games overall, and their defense and pitching have been a downward spiral, especially on the road where they have allowed 5.1 rpg this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh in interleague games have allowed 5.2 rpg this season , and I'm betting they will have problems containing a TB offense that has averaged 7 rpg during a recent 7 game span. I'm betting on a total combined score to eclipse this number.

Over is 7-1 in Cobbs last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.Over is 13-3 in Cobbs last 16 road starts.Over is 20-5-1 in Rays last 26 overall.Over is 7-0 in Pirates last 7 games following an off day.Over is 11-2-1 in Pirates last 14 interleague home games.Over is 8-1-1 in Pirates last 10 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 23-8 in Pirates last 31 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

TAMPA BAY is 24-7 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 10.4 rpg getting scored. COBB is 13-4 OVER L/17 vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game with an average of 10.2 rpg getting scored. PITTSBURGH is 23-9 OVER  as a home underdog of +100 or higher dating back to last season with a combined average of 10.4 rpg.TAMPA BAY is 17-7 OVER  on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season for combined average of 10.9 rpg. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Scherzer the Nats starter owns a bloated 6.00 ERA in two starts against the Cubs last year. Meanwhile, Cubs starter Arrieta is 1-1 with a 4.98 ERA in eight starts against Washington. These are two vialbe pitchers, but the total is a little low considering how explosive offensively both sides can be, especially the Nationals when playing at home where they own a .296 BA and have averaged 6 rpg vs right handers like Arrietta. I know these teams took part in a tight 3-0 game yesterday that the Cubs won, but today Im betting on more offensive output. 

ARRIETA is 10-1 OVER  after giving up 2 earned runs in his last 2 outings dating back to last season with a combined average of 11.8 rpg going on the board. CHICAGO CUBS are 10-1 OVER  in road games after a one run win with a combined average of 10.7 rpg going on the board. Scherzer has had a great start to his season, but when  or iff he does leave this game he is backed by a bullpen with a bloated 5.03 ERA on the season. Cubs are 13-4 OVER L/17 in road games vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worsewith a combined average of 11.6 rpg getting scored.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Jose Berrios, the Twins starter has  won seven of his eight 2017 starts, and now goes against Red Sox ace Chris Sale in the series opener

The Twins are showing their upward mobility by their successes this season, and are now a first place team. I know they have a tough assignment going up against BoSox starter Chris Sale, but the Twins are no pushovers and must be respected on a value line with Berrios (7-1, 2.67 ERA) who has allowed two runs in each of his four starts, all victories. Meanwhile, Boston after losing three of their last four, including two of three over the weekend to the Los Angeles Angels the RedSox are showing some inconsistencies as their recent 4-6  record would indicate in their last 10 games. With that said, I'm going to take the value line, and back a Twins team that come into this series  with a 23-9 record on the road, the second-best road record in baseball.

MINNESOTA is 6-0  against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season and the Twins are also 9-0 L/9 dating back to last season when they are a road underdog, vs a team with a superior record winning on the moneyline by an average of 4 rpg.

Play on the Minnesota Twins to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Cubs RH Eddie Butler (3-2, 4.19 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (7-1, 2.96)

Washington southpaw Gio Gonzalez (7-1, 2.96) takes on Cubs right-hander Eddie Butler (3-2, 4.19) when Chicago begins a four-game series in Washington against the first-place Nationals this Monday night.

 Nationals starter Gonzalez has some quality numbers on board so far this season but, Chicago has done their best offensive work on southpaws during this campaign going 12-6 on the moneyline  and  averaging 6 rpg, via a .271 BA which includes 25 HRS and 102 RBIs, so needless to say, they must not be underestimated as underdogs in this spot. I know Cubbies thrower Eddie Butler may not inspire bettors when hes on the hill, but the Nats looked tired yesterday while scoring just 2 runs vs a Reds team that gives up runs in bunches. Yes, the Nats can be explosive offensively, but they have put out some clunkers, scoring 2 runs or less 3 times in their L/7 games. With that said, I expect the Cubs , to wake up here today and deliver a motivated win vs a side that should inspire them to their former greatness of last season.

Nationals are 2-9 in Gonzalezs last 11 starts vs. National League Central.Cubs are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.  

Cubs manager MADDON is a perfect 8-0  against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better since becoming manager in this organziation. GONZALEZ is 7-14 L/21 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 . 

MLB Home teams like the Nationals - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season (NL) are just 29-51  L/80 times.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win vs the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Reds LH Brandon Finnegan (1-0, 2.70 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (3-3, 4.76)

Cincinnati scored five first-inning runs and rolled to a 6-2 victory behind seven surprising solid innings from veteran Scott Feldman yesterday vs the powerful Nationals . With the momentum of that win on their side I now expect, the Reds to be solid again behind Left-hander Brandon Finnegan (1-0, 2.70 ERA) vs a St.Louis side that   the Reds have beaten in 8 of  L/10 meetings .  Finnegan is 2-1 along  with a stable 3.13 ERA in seven outings, five of them starts vs the Cardinals . Meanwhile, Wacha  St. Louis right-hander starter  has really been in a funk of late and has not lasted past the fifth inning in five of his past six starts and currently looks like fade material, despite of a recent history of success vs the Reds.

Reds are 4-0 in Finnegans last 4 starts.Reds are 7-1 in Finnegans last 8 starts vs. National League Central. Reds are 6-2 in Finnegans last 8 road starts.Cardinals are 1-5 in Wachas last 6 home starts.Cardinals are 7-15 in their last 22 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

ST LOUIS is 8-17 L/25 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season.

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Astros RH Francis Martes (2-0, 5.02 ERA) vs. Mariners LH Ariel Miranda (6-3, 4.04)

Martes the young but talented Astros starter today has won each of his first two major-league starts , and notched a win at Oakland on Tuesday in where he gave up three runs on six hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings of top tier work. He is viable opponent for the Seattle Mariners batting order today. Meanwhile, Miranda the Mariners startng thrower is operating the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, as the southpaw is winless in his last three trips to the hill. Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. I know Miranda has pitched his best baseball at home dating back to last season where he is 7-1, but the one loss came against Houston and I'm betting his team suffers a set back again today.


HOUSTON is 13-3 L/16 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. HOUSTON is 20-3 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

MLB team Astros - good fielding team - turning 1.1 or more DP's/game on the season., on a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors are 61-33 on the moneyline.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Milwaukee right-hander Zach Davies (7-4, 5.40 ERA) opposes Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran (6-5, 4.76) in the final meeting of the season.

 In four starts this month, Davies is 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA .  Despite of his bloated ERA because of ugly start last time out  the Brewers are 9-6 when Davies pitches and it this winningest pitcher and must be respected in this spot.

Meanwhile, Tehran the Braves starter is just 1-5 at home this season, along with a bloated 6.65 ERA and fade material according to my own projections. TEHERAN is 4-13 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse.TEHERAN is 2-15  against the money line in home games in the first half of the season over the last couple of seasons, and his team is s 2-12  against the money line when he starts at home when the money line is +125 to -125 . The Braves are also 0-18 at home when Tehran starts and  is off a quliaty start where he allowed 6 hits or less in his last start and are not a fav of -140 or  more.(Which happened against SF last time out on June 20.)

Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Brewers - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a losing team are a long term 105-76 dating back 20 seasons. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like the Braves - with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.50 or better over his last 3 starts are just 16-33.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Yesterday  Cincinnati was blown up 18-3 count, vs the potent bats of the Washington Nationals, and I'm betting on another big output by a team that averages 6.1 rpg vs righty starters/ The Reds starter Feldman will take the mound for a team who has allowed 121 RBI and pitched to a 5.27 ERA. He is part of a rotation whose ERA increased to 6.20 ERA after the Reds allowed double-digit runs for the 11th time yesterday. Meanwhile, the Nats will respond with Tanner Roarke who has a 9.88 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill. After being embarrassed yesterday I also expect a Reds side that  owns an offense that has five players with at least 10 home runs, and three with at least 16 to try to get back some respectabilty in this spot, with some offensive fireworks of their own. Whatever, the outcome my own projections estimate this game to easily eclipse the number. 

CINCINNATI is 18-2 OVER L/20 vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. CINCINNATI is 15-3 OVER  after allowing 8 runs or more this season with an average of 11.3 rpg going on the board. 

CINCINNATI is 11-2 OVER  vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.WASHINGTON is 20-7 OVER when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 like the Nats - after scoring 8 runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 20 runs or more are 74-29 to the OVER for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Rockies RH Tyler Chatwood (6-7, 4.08 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (10-2, 2.61)

The Dodgers offense continues to churn out runs and are off a 6-1 win yesterday vs Colorado. The Dodgers have averaged a whopping 8.6 rpg during a current 7 game span, and have averaged 5.7 rpg at home this season and today against Rockies starter Chatwood, who is is 6-7 with a 4.08 ERA on the season, I'm beting their offensive output surge continues.He faced the Dodgers in April and allowed six hits and five runs in 4 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, the Rockies sometimes explosive offense will face super star hurler Clayton Kershaw, who's name has become subliminally synonymous with a under pitcher for bettors. However, Kershaw has not been so perfect of late, as is evident by giving up 11 hits and four runs (three homers) against the Cubs, and last week allowed six hits, four of them home runs, and six runs to the Mets. Now its Colorado's turn to make Kershaw look human. the Rockies have averaged 5.2 rpg this season in offensive production via a .272 BA.

LA DODGERS are 15-6 OVER  in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season with a combined average of 9.3 rpg scored.LA DODGERS are 22-11 OVER  after allowing 2 runs or less this season with a combined average sore of 9.2 rpg clicking in and are  12-3 OVER  after allowing 1 run or less this season with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 12-2 in Dodgers last 14 overall.Over is 7-1 in Kershaws last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Kershaws last 7 home starts vs. Rockies.

MLB teams where the total is 7 or less like Colorado - with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 10 games are 35-12 over dating back 20 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Astros starter McCullers (6-1, 2.58 ERA) was 4-0 in May with a 0.99 ERA and 37 strikeouts in six starts before going on the disabled list with lower back problems. Now healthy again, the thrower looks to keep his stellar record intact vs the Seattle Mariners in game 2 of this series.McCullers is 4-2 in his career against the Mariners with a 2.14 ERA. He got the win against them April 4 in Houston, allowing one run and five hits in six innings of a 2-1 victory. Meanwhile, the Astros explosive offense that has averaged 6.6 rpg in road games, now goes against a rookie  right-hander Sam Gaviglio (3-1, 3.43 ERA).HOUSTON is 13-3  against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season.

Seattle banged Houston yesterday 13-3 and the Astros will now be out looking for redemption and  payback to even this series. I'm betting they get what they want.

SEATTLE is 11-21 L/32 against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more.HOUSTON is 12-4  against the money line in road games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.

MLB All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 the Mariners - with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are 23-84 for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons. 

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Cubs LH Jon Lester (4-4, 3.83 ERA) vs. Marlins LH Justin Nicolino (0-1, 5.06)

Marlins southpaw  starter Nicolino (0-1, 5.06 ERA) will make his fifth start of the season when he faces the Cubs this Saturday afternoon .Nicolino's numbers per nine innings this season are below average  --  hits allowed (11.3), HRS (2.3),  walks (3.9) and strikeouts (5.6). The Cubs after being shutout by 2-0 count yesterday will be ready to respond in a big way, and I am betting  Nicolinio will get shelled. The lefty made his first start in nearly three weeks last time out,  against Washington, allowing six runs (three earned) in three innings, including a pair of home runs.The Chicago Cubs have averaged 6.1 rpg vs LHP this season and own projections estimate a similar offensive output today.

Meanwhile, Chicago's starter LESTER has seen his team go 24-5 in starts against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse dating back to last season. Lester has been in stable form of late, going 1-1 along with a 3.50 ERA in his L/3 starts, allowing 7 ERS over 18 inning including 22 strike outs.

MIAMI is 4-16 L/20 against the money line after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less . 

I don;t make it a consistent habit to lay alot of lumber, but this spot warrants investing a few extra bucks.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Reds RH Homer Bailey (2016: 2-3, 6.65 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Joe Ross (3-3, 5.98)

Bailey the Reds starter who is coming off the disabled list, has the unenviable task of going  head to head with the first place Washington Nationals, who entered Friday leading the National League in hitting (.274), slugging (.472), OPS (.811), homers (110), extra-base hits (268), runs (398) and RBIs (390). Bailey is 1-3 with a 3.86 ERA in his career against Washington and 0-3, 5.40 at Nationals Park.Bailey struggled in six major-league turns last season, allowing  a total of 35 hits in 23 innings. Meanwhile, Washington will fire back with with right-hander Joe Ross (3-3, 5.98).Nationals are 5-1 in Ross' last 6 home starts.

Reds are 0-8 in Baileys last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.Reds are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Washington

I expect the Nats explosive offense beats up on the Reds Bailey, and despite of Ross also being a sub par hurler, the Nationals offense will trump any run out put the Reds register.

CINCINNATI is 3-17 L/20 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season and  0-10  against the money line in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season and is 1-11  against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive overs this season and 2-15 against the money line in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season.

Astros RH Joe Musgrove (4-6, 5.09 ERA) vs. Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (2-2, 4.73)

Houstons starter Musgrove, has dropped back-to-back starts since returning from a shoulder injury.Astros manager A.J. Hinch said he doesn't consider Musgrove to be 100 percent . QUOTE: "One step closer to that, obviously," Hinch told the Houston Chronicle. "Fully back, to me, is extending him north of 100 pitches."  END QUOTE. Meawhile, Felix Hernandez will make his first start since, experiencing alot of shoulder pain in the beginning of the season. After rehab, he has said to the media, that he feels no pain is all right now, which is a good thing for Seattle Mariners backers. King Hernandez, the Mariners' career leader in wins  with a (156), innings (2,442 1/3), strikeouts (2,286) and starts (364), has won both his appearances at home this season and gives his team in edge in this opening series game. I know the Astros are hot, but , after a 4  game road sweep of the As, may enter this game on tired legs in a natural letdown state and vulnerable to a down performance. Seattle has won 5 straight and must not be underestimated here at home, where they own a 24-13 record and average 5.3 rpg.

SEATTLE is 20-7 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season and Hernandez is  31-14 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 Astros- allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more are just 15-45 in the followup game going back 20 seasons. ( note: Houston won yesterday 12 -9 vs the As) 

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the moneyline  1 unit reg selection 

Pirates RH Jameson Taillon (3-2, 3.38 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (7-5, 5.75)

Veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright (7-5, 5.75) i has some problems of late, but  Wainwright is 5-1 with a 2.88 ERA in seven home starts and does his best work in front of the home town fans. Pittsburgh has batted just .246 on the road this season, and lostt 22 of 35 way games. Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon (3-2, 3.38) a guy that been through alot this season, ( testicular cancer) is  off a game where he gave up eight hits and four runs Sunday in five innings of a 7-1 defeat against the Chicago Cubs and once again looks like fade material vs a Cards side trying to shake off an embarrassing loss to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies last time out by a 5-1 count. 

Meanwhile, the Pirates are off two straight losses to the Brewers , and now in a letdown situation  now go against a team that has swept 2 straight 3 game series against them.

WAINWRIGHTs team  is 25-9 L/34 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL).PITTSBURGH is 1-11 L/12 against the money line revenging 2 straight one run losses against opponent.

Pirates are 9-21 in their last 30 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Pirates are 4-9 in their last 13 during game 1 of a series.Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 4-0 in Wainwrights last 4 starts vs. Pirates.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher Pirates  - after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less against opponent after a loss by 4 runs or more are 44-109 dating back 20 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on the St.Louis Cardinals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Athletics RH Jharel Cotton (4-7, 5.40 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Mike Pelfrey (3-5, 3.56)

Right-hander Mike Pelfrey (3-5, 3.56 ERA) goes to the hill to face a As team off a 12-9 loss yesterday. In four career appearances vs the As, all starts, Pelfrey is 0-4 along with a nasty looking 7.97 ERA. He has surrendered 18 earned runs and 32 hits in 20 1/3 innings of sub par work. Meanwhile, Jharel Cotton faces the a White Sox team off a 9-0 victory yesterday vs the Twins. Cotton owns a 6.23 ERA in his L/3 starts, and almost always seems on edge of disaster when he takes to the hill of late. Yes I know he had quality start in his last outing, but he hs seen 5 of his L/6 starts after a quality outing eclipse the number.Note: Cotton has surrendered 12 of his 13 home runs in his last seven outings.

Over is 5-0-1 in Athletics last 6 road games.Over is 5-0 in Athletics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 5-0-1 in Athletics last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 vs. American League West.Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 during game 1 of a series.Over is 11-4 in White Sox last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Blue Jays LH J.A. Happ (2-4, 4.26 ERA) vs. Royals RH Jake Junis (2-1, 5.56)

The Blue Jays offense is a little banged up at the moment with key contributors Donaldson and Pearce at less than 100% or in the dugout tonight.  The Kansas Royals might be underdogs here , but must not be disrespected as they  have won nine of 11 contests to move within one game of .500.  Meanwhile, the Jays, are one game under .500 on the season, at 35-36 and in their L/9 attempts trying to even their season record , have fallen flat on their faces losing 9 straight times by a overall 73-24 count. On paper the pitching situation looks like it favors the Blue Jays, but veteran knuckelballer Happ is anything but a sure bet, and could easily get rocked tonight by Salavador Perez and company.Happ is 2-2 with a 5.96 ERA in four starts against the Royals.

Blue Jays are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Blue Jays are 2-8 in Happs last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day.Blue Jays are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Kansas City.

KANSAS CITY is 17-5 L/22 against the money line in home games after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base  and is 16-8 L/24 against the money line in home games against AL East opponents.TORONTO is 4-10  against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more, which happened in a 11-4 loss to Texas last time out. TORONTO is 13-25  38 against the money line in road games against AL Central opponents. 

Play on the KC Royals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Cubs RH John Lackey (5-7, 4.98 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Jose Urena (5-2, 3.64)

Lackey Pittsburgh's starter held the Pirates to one run and two hits over six innings on Sunday to earn his first win since May 16 He has had sme difficulties, but is a veteran hurler who must never be underestimated. Meanwhile, the Marlins starter Urena despite of pitching well of late and off a quality start, has seldom been reliable for his teams chances at a win after a quality effort , as is evident by the  Marlins  0-9 record in Urenas last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

The Cubs revamped lineup exploded yesterday and  took the opener 11-1  vs the Marlins, and I now expect they will use the momentum of that game and use it to their advantage today to get another win. The Marlins bullpen was horrendosu yesterday,which sets up some long term trends that must not be ignored.

Marlins are 2-7 in Urenas last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Marlins are 4-11 in Urenas last 15 home starts.Cubs are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.Cubs are 7-3 in Lackeys last 10 road starts.

MIAMI is 8-20 L/28 against the money line in home games after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Marlins  - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are 7-38 in their follow up game dating back 20 seasons, for a go against conversion rate of 85 % for bettors. 

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

 Reds RH Luis Castillo (No Record) vs. Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (8-2, 3.28 ERA)

Tonights pitching matchup will see Nationals  right-hander Stephen Strasburg (8-2, 3.28) take a trip to the hill to face  another right-hander Luis Castillo,  will be making his major league debut for Reds. Castillo is coming from Double-A Pensacola, where he was 4-4 with a 2.58 ERA in 14 starts and is getting a start vs a side that could easily light him up in a big way. Washington has scored 5.9 rpg vs righty starters  and accumulated 86 HRS this season and have battled .289 at home. Meanwhile, Strasburg has been very average in his own backyard  as is evident by a  4.15 ERA in six starts at home this year.Strasburg owns a  4.35 ERA in six starts in his career against the Reds, having allowed 28 hits and 13 walks in 31 innings of sub par work. The Reds have done their best offensive work vs righty starters this season scoring an average of 5.2 rpg while clobbering 72 HRS. 

Looking at both offenses and the pitching matchups, I feel we have a weak total to bet into , favoring an over bet. 

Over is 9-1-2 in Reds last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 road games.Over is 8-2 in Nationals last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 11-2 in Nationals last 13 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Over is 5-1 in Strasburgs last 6 starts vs. Reds.Over is 6-1 in Strasburgs last 7 starts vs. National League Central.

STRASBURG is 13-4 OVER L/17 vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse dating back to last season, with a combined average of 10.1 rpg scored.STRASBURG is 14-4 OVER   in home games dating back to last season with a combined average of 10 rpg going on the board.

CINCINNATI is 15-3 OVER as an underdog of +150 or more this season with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. CINCINNATI is 16-4 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season with a combined average of 11.2 rpg getting scored.CINCINNATI is 17-2 OVER  vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 12.9 rpg scored. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

The Dodgers enter this game in red hot form having won 6 straight and on the verge of a 4 game sweep vs a banged up NY Mets team that  has lost 17 of 26 games vs an above .500 team this season. The Mets  have struggled against LHP like the Dodgers starter RYU this season, averaging just 4.1 rpg via lowly .228 BA, and once again look like they are at a disadvantage. Note: If RYU struggles he is backed by a red hot dodgers bullpen, that owns a minsucule 2.04 ERA at home this season.  I know the Mets starter Matz has done well of late, after being on disabled list earlier this season, but with the way the Dodgers are seeing the ball all pitchers in this league now look like cannon fodder for them. The Dodgers have averaged 8 rpg during a recent 7 game stretch, and have averaged 5.7 rpg at home this season, and must respected here at home in Chez Ravine.

LA DODGERS are 33-8  against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season

RYU is 25-8 L/33 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record .LA DODGERS are 24-5 L/29 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 dating back to last season.LA DODGERS are 18-3 L/21 against the money line in home games after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games.NY METS are 16-31 L/47 against the money line against NL West opponents.

Giants- Cain RHP vs -Braves Garcia LHP

Garcia   the Braves' starter is their  most consistent pitcher, despite of a  2-5 record.Garcia, held the Giants to four hits over 6 2/3 scoreless innings at San Francisco in his last start against them,  and has not allowed more than four runs in any start before a down effort last time out when he gave up a  five-run fifth inning against Miami . He had a 1.49 ERA in his previous five starts and once again looks like a viable option in this spot.Garcia is 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA in his career against the Giants. Meanwhile,  Cain the Giants starter has lost 5 straight starts and is now 3-6 along with a bloated 4.99 ERA on the season and looks like fade material again.

SF has lost 7 of their L/8 overall while the Braves have won 6 of their L/8. With both teams playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spetrum is will not be difficult decision for me to back the Braves in this spot.

SAN FRANCISCO is 4-16 L/20 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the moneyline 

Paulino the Astros starter (1-0, 5.03 ERA) allowed one run on three hits over six innings against the Red Sox last Saturday for his first quality start of the season. Meanwhile, Hahn (3-4, 3.56) has been in good form of late since returning from the disabled list. He is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA over his past three starts, which included five innings of two-run ball against the Yankees last time out. Despite of both hurlers decent performances of late, both have shown themselves in the recent past to be less than consistent, so a continuation of their recent efforts is far from a guarantee, and instead I believe a down performance and reversion to the mean is a high probability. Im betting on the Astros potent bats to do well vs Hahn, and for Oakland sometimes explosive batting order to bounce back off a one run output last night, with enough fireworks to secure a profitable over wager for us. 

OAKLAND   in  9 home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season have scored and average of 5.6 rpg and i in 7 home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season have scored an average of 5.9 rpg. HOUSTON  in road games against division opponents this season have scored an average of 6.1 rpg and overall have scored 6.6 rpg.HOUSTON in 22 games on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season have scored an average of 7 rpg. OAKLAND is 13-3 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season with a combined average of 12.2 rpg getting scored.

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There is only one way to put this the Phillies are playing horrendous baseball, and own MLBs worst record. Yesterday they were completely embarrased after taking a 5-0 lead vs the Cards, and losing 7-5 in extra innings. That was ugly and things don't look to get much better here today vs Cards starter Martinez, who is one of just 13 starters with an ERA under three (2.86 in 94 1/3 innings), ranking  seventh in the Majors with 107 strikeouts and eighth among qualified starters with a 28.5 percent strikeout rate.Martinez, shut out the Phillies two starts ago and looks like a strong bet again to get his team past this disfunctional Phillies side. His pitching opponent Nola ,  comes into this tilt  with a 3-6 record and 4.76 ERA, lasted just five innings on June 11 against the Cardinals.

Philadelphia has lost 13 of 14 and is 11-39 in its past 50 games and Nola the Phillies are 1-5 in Nolas last 6 starts.

ST LOUIS is 10-2 L/12 against the money line vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse this season.PHILADELPHIA is 10-32 L/32 against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.ST LOUIS is 12-2 against the money line against NL East opponents this season.

MLB Home teams like the Phillies - after 2 straight games with no home runs, after 2 straight games where the bullpen that was hit hard for 4+ earned runs are 14-34 L/48.

Play on the St.Louis Cards to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Mets RH Tyler Pill (0-2, 3.75 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Rich Hill (3-3, 5.14)

Mets right-hander Tyler Pill (0-2, 3.75 ERA) will go head to head with Dodgers left-hander Rich Hill (3-3, 5.14) on Wednesday at Dodger Stadium.Pill's last start on June 4 saw him  give up five runs (three earned) on eight hits in a 11-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. He is backed by a bullpen that owns a ugly 6.46 road ERA this season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers man on the mound, Hill will be trying to bounce back from his worst outing of the season, when he was on the clobbered in a 12-5 loss vs the Cleveland Indians on Thursday. Hill was smacked around like a rag doll  for seven runs on eight hits in four innings. The southpaw has yet to pitch more than five innings in his eight starts this season .Against the Mets, Hill is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in four games (two starts). Im betting he will give up some runs again in this spot vs a NYM side that has averaged 5.7 rpg on the road this season. 

The Dodgers smashed the Mets 12-0 last night, and tonight I expect the embarrassed Mets to respond with some offense of their own, but LA should prove resilient and also do some offensive damage behind a group, that has averaged 7.7 rpg during a current 7 game stretch.

LA DODGERS are 12-1 OVER  vs. NL teams allowing 5 or more runs/game on the season this season.NY METS are 15-3 OVER  as an underdog of +100 or higher this season, with a combined average of 10.9 rpg getting scored.

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Astros RH Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.00 ERA) vs. Athletics LH Sean Manaea (6-3, 4.01)

A's left-hander Sean Manaea (6-3, 4.01 ERA) and Astros righty Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.00) enter this game in generating some wins for their teams, but these hurlers according to my own matchup stats don;t matchup all that well vs the other offense. Manaea  in Oakland's 7-6 victory against the Yankees on Friday gave up five runs on eight hits over six innings and could easily get dinged here vs a sometimes explosive Astros offense. The Athletics hurler understands what he is going up against Quote: "The Astros are a really good ballclub, especially their offense," Manaea said. "They got a lot of guys up and down the lineup that can swing, hit for power, and they got some speed, too." END QUOTE. Meanwhile, Friers the AStros starter despite of a current hot streak, has proven very streaky during his career , and earlier this season was sent to the bullpen. He is always just a few pitches away from implosion according to my long term charts. 

Houston has averaged a whopping 6.6 rpg in offense on the road this season , while the As have averaged 4.8 rpg at home. The combined average score at the Coliseum in 27 home games sits at exactly 10 combined rpg. Houston has seen a combined average of  10.7 rpg scored in 33 road tilts. 

Over is 13-3-2 in Fiers' last 18 starts during game 3 of a series.Over is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 3-0-1 in Fiers' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 10-4-3 in Astros last 17 road games.Over is 20-4-2 in Athletics last 26 games following a loss.Over is 6-1 in Athletics last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 4-1-1 in Manaeas last 6 home starts.Over is 5-1 in Manaeas last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 10-4-1 in Athletics last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-0 in Fiers' last 4 road starts vs. Athletics.Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

FIERS is 12-3 OVER L/15 in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse with a combined average of 10.4 rpg going on the board. FIERS is 10-1 OVER  on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 with a combined average score of 11.3 rpg clicking in.

FIERS is 20-8 OVER L/28 when playing against a team with a losing record with a combined average of 10.8 rpg going on the scoreboard.HOUSTON in 25 games  as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season have seen a combined average of 10.7 rpg go on the board.OAKLAND is 13-3 OVER  at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season with a combined average of 12.2 rpg getting scored.HOUSTON is 10-1 OVER  in road games after a win by 4 runs or more this season with a combined average score of 13.6 rpg scored.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Giants RH Jeff Samardzija (2-9, 4.81 ERA) vs. Braves LH Sean Newcomb (0-2, 2.19)

Newcomb the Braves starter prepares to make his third career start this Wednesday night vs the S Ginats. He is still looking for his first win , but this kids stuff is electric as was evident by two strong turns. Im betting he has an advantage vs a SFG side that averaged just 3.2 rpg vs southpaw throwers this season.
Meanwhile, Samardzija the Giant starter has been average at best of late, which is better than he was earlier this season when started with 5 losses in his first seven starts. Overall he has received very little support by his team consistently since mid-May. The right hander was crushed for eight runs on 11 hits in six innings Friday at Colorado. He is backed with a bullpen that owns a bloated 5.19 road ERA this season.

Giants are 17-43 in their last 60 games following a win.Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.Giants are 7-20 in their last 27 overall.Giants are 1-4 in Samardzijas last 5 starts.Braves are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. National League West.Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.

SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season and are s 4-10 against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Diamondbacks RH Taijuan Walker (5-3, 3.32 ERA) vs. Rockies RH Jeff Hoffman (4-0, 2.25)

Jeff Hoffman (4-0, 2.25) will start for Colorado against Arizona's Taijuan Walker (5-3, 3.32). Both are capable hurlers that an keep the other teams offense in check. Walker has been especially potent and is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in his past two starts and I'm betting the Rockies  will have problems producing runs here against him. Meanwhile, Hoffman has been tough on opposing hitters at home this season , as is evident by a 2-0 record along with a stingy 1.47 ERA on 3 starts at Coors Field, which is not a good omen for a Arizona side that scores an average of just 3.7 rpg on the road this season.

These teams took part in a tight 4-3 affair yesterday, and Im expecting another tight game here with the to combined score staying on the low side of the number. 

 Under is 4-1-1 in Rockies last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings and 4-0 under the L/4 meetings in Colorado. Under is 11-3 in Diamondbacks last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.

COLORADO is 15-6 UNDER  vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season with a combined average of 8.2 rpg getting scored.ARIZONA is 20-8 UNDER  vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of just 7.6 rpg getting scored.ARIZONA is 16-7 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 7.9 rpg going n the board. 

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

White Sox LH David Holmberg (1-0, 2.63 ERA) vs. Twins RH José Berríos (6-1, 2.74)

Minnesota's, Berrios is 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA in seven starts this season. He is doing well so far, but the righty was just 3-7 with an 8.02 ERA in 14 starts when he first came up from the minors to join Minnesota's rotation, and is still vulnerable to imploding according to my cross reference pitcher rankings.The White Sox ripped the Twins for seven runs on 16 hits in Tuesday's 9-7 Chicago loss, including three home runs and must not be underestimated against any pitcher at the moment.

Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 45-20-4 in White Sox last 69 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 47-18-1 in Twins last 66 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-2 in Twins last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

CHI WHITE SOX  in 10  road games with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season have seen a combined average of 11.2 rpg get scored.CHI WHITE SOX are 18-6 OVER L/24 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 with a combined average of 11.6 rpg clicking in. Edd Hickox the home plate umpire for this game has seen an average of 11.2 rpg scored when he does strikes and balls and his L/7 games have all eclipsed the number.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 like the Twins - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 37-11 to the OVER for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

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Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (3-3, 4.78 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Nick Pivetta (1-3, 4.46)

Philadelphia is playing some horrendous baseball, and own the worst record in Major Leagues. In a game they had a definite chance to win yesterday, they fell apart in extra innings and lost 8-1.  A few roster moves were announced after that embarrassment, but instead of waking the team up,  I'm betting more turmoil in the short term at least.

St. Louis has clobbered Philadelphia by 24-8 count and have won all 4  meetings this season. With the  Phillies' offense  tanking scoring an average of 2.38 rpg  while losing 12 of the last 13 tilts , Im betting they are fade material .

 PHILADELPHIA is 1-10 L/11 against the money line after scoring 1 run or less this season.ST LOUIS is 11-2 L/13 against the money line against NL East opponents this season.PHILADELPHIA is 3-17 L/20 against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

Play on the St.Louis Cardinals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Mets RH Robert Gsellman (5-4, 5.50 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Brandon McCarthy (5-3, 3.14)

A pair of right-handers, New York's Robert Gsellman (5-4, 5.50 ERA) and Los Angeles' Brandon McCarthy (5-3, 3.14 ERA), go head to head  against  each other in the second game of the series at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodgers have scored 70 runs in the past 10 games and the way their swinging the bats as a team, could easily eclipse this number all by themselves. Also the NY Mets are averaging 5.9 rpg on the road this season. 

Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 9-1 in Dodgers last 10 overall.Over is 7-0-1 in Dodgers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 10-1 in Dodgers last 11 games following a win.

NY METS are 15-3 OVER L/18 vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season.LA DODGERS are 11-1 OVER  vs. NL teams allowing 5 or more runs/game on the season this season.NY METS are 10-2 OVER L/12 after a loss by 4 runs or more this season combining to average 10.4 rpg. GSELLMAN is 9-1 OVER  in night games this season with a combined average of 11.4 rpg. NY METS are 13-4 OVER L/17 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 12.5 rpg getting scored.

MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 the Dodgers - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games are 50-21 to the OVER for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

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Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.00 ERA) vs. Rockies RH German Marquez (5-3, 4.19)

The Rockies lead the National League with 383 runs scored and Arizona is second (359). Because of that we are  getting a  bloated Total to bet against despite of the top quality pitching matchup in this spot .German Marquez (5-3, 4.19 ERA) will start for the Rockies,  while,  Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.00) will go to the hill for the Diamondbacks.  Greinke is 3-0 with a 4.03 ERA in nine games (eight starts) at Coors Field. He goes against a Arizona team that has averaged 3.8 rpg on the road this season vis a lowly .233 BA.  Marquez, the Rockies starter is 0-1 with a 3.21 ERA in three career games (two starts) against the Diamondbacks and 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA against them in two starts this season. He has not won, but has been capable opponent in the meetings. 

These teams have gone under in 5 of their 6 meetings this season and another under is on tonights agenda. 

ARIZONA is 18-7 UNDER  on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season with a combined average of 7.5 rpg going on the board. Under is 5-1 in Marquezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-3-2 in Rockies last 12 overall.Under is 4-1 in Greinkes last 5 road starts.Under is 10-3 in Diamondbacks last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Giants LH Matt Moore (2-7, 6.00 ERA) vs. Braves RH Julio Teheran (6-4, 4.86)

 Julio Tehran the Braves starter today is an enigma and one of the most obvious Dr. Jecjkyll and Mr.Hyde pitchers in the majors. Despite of a top quality effort in his last two trips to the hill, the hurler can not always be counted on for a good follow effort, as he is 1-8 against the money line in home games after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last couple of seasons  and is 2-11 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

Braves are are 7-19 in Teherans last 26 home starts.

I know the Giants (26-46) have lost 16 of their past 20 games while the Braves (32-37) have won five of their past seven. But this is a spot situation that Im betting the Giants flourish in, after getting embarrassed yesterday by a 9-0 count.  Pros hate to be made to look bad, and this I'm betting ignites the Giants to a win.

Play on the Giants to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Angels RH Parker Bridwell (1-0, 2.79 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Michael Pineda (7-3, 3.71)

The Yankees are big favorites here today, but Im not sold on the asking price, and can see value in taking the side (+1.5) with the Halos. The Yankees stumbled home off their west coast road trip finishing on a 6 game losing streak, and are far from being the form that surprised alot of pundits earlier this season. Meanwhile, LAA, despite of a few hiccups is still a viable opponent for all comers, and at just 1 game under .500 must be respected in their abilities to be competitive.  With that said, I'm betting  on Angels starter Bridwell who held New York to an unearned run on seven hits over 3 2/3 innings on Wednesday to once again be a thorn in the side of the Yanks in this spot. Meanwhile, Pineda in his last start vs the  Angels on Wednesday  despite of a lucky no decision was smashed around for five runs and 10 hits over six innings, throwing more than 100 pitches  and once again looks like cannon fodder tonight. Note: The Yankees are 0-11 on the runline when Pineda starts a favorite after a game t he threw more than 100 pitches in. Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Yankees are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. American League West.Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Play on the LA Angels to cover +1.5 on the runline 1 unit reg selection 

Cardinals RH Mike Leake (5-6, 3.14 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Jeremy Hellickson (5-5, 4.91)

Leake has not had a quality start in his L/4 trips to the hill for the Cardinals. He lost his last two starts Overall , St.Louis's  starting pitchers have not done well of late as evident by  a 9.39 ERA while the team has won only two of seven tilts.Leake is 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA in 10 starts versus the Phillies and he looks like fade material tonight vs Phillies starter  Hellicksons who is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.Phillies are 7-2 in Hellicksons last 9 home starts.

ST LOUIS is 1-9 L/10 against the money line in road games in June games this season.HELLICKSON team  is 6-0  against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest this season.ST LOUIS is 3-11  against the money line when playing with a day off this season.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the Cards - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are just 16-31 L/47 times for a 66% conversion rate for underdog bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Mets RH Zack Wheeler (3-4, 4.48 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (9-2, 2.23)

Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler (3-4, 4.48 ERA) will go head to head with Dodgers super star  left-hander Clayton Kershaw (9-2, 2.23 ERA) in the opener of a four-game set. As soon as bettors usually see the name Kershaw they subliminally equate an under bet as being an option. But tonight even Kershaw maybe a little vulnerable vs a Mets offense that has averaged 5.9 rpg at home this season.    Meanwhile, Wheeler the NYMets thrower, owns a bloated 6.60 ERA in his L/3 starts, and backed by a bullpen that has registered a nasty looking 6.46 ERA on the road  is vulnerable to being smacked around by a LAD offense, that has averaged 5.3 rpg at home during the current campaign. 

WHEELER is 8-1 OVER L/9 in night games this season with a combined average of 9.7 rpg going on the board. NY METS are 14-3 OVER L/17 vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season with a combined average of 11.3 rpg. LA DODGERS are 10-1 OVER L/11 vs. NL teams allowing 5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 11 rpg going on the board.NY METS are 33-10 OVER  in night games this season with a combined average of 10.3 rpg. LA has gone OVER in 8 of their L/9 games. Mets have gone over in 5 of their L/6 overall.

Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 9-4-3 in Wheelers last 16 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 11-5-3 in Mets last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 40-18-8 in Mets last 66 overall.Over is 13-4-2 in Mets last 19 during game 1 of a series.Over is 8-2-2 in Wheelers last 12 starts overall.Over is 8-0 in Dodgers last 8 games following a win.Over is 8-1 in Dodgers last 9 overall.

MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 in Dodgers  - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games are 49-21 for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 9.00 ERA) vs. Mariners RH Sam Gaviglio (3-1, 3.41)

After four starts for the Toledo Mud Hens, the Tigers starters today Sanchez  was  recalled before Monday's game, and is expected, to take the mound against the Mariners tonight.Sanchez was 0-2 with a 4.60 ERA for the Mud Hens and spent time on the disabled list with a hamstring injury and  is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA for the Tigers this season. Sanchez,  was slapped around by Seattle for four runs and six hits in four innings of relief on April 26, and looks like cannon fodder again.  Meanwhile,  Seattle will send capable rookie right-hander Sam Gaviglio (3-1, 3.41 ERA), to the mound to  make his first career appearance against Detroit, which should be an advantage for him in the early part of this tilt. The 27 year old hurler has been brilliant at home, allowing a total of two earned runs over 16 innings of top tier work in three trips to the hill while garnering a stingy 1.12 ERA..

Seattle 7 games above .500 on the road is averaging 5.1 rpg at home this season, vs a decent .265 BA, and face both a pitcher and bullpen in less than good form. The Tigers bullpen owns a ugly 6.44 ERA on the road this season and they look like fade material in this spot.

Tigers are 3-10 in Sanchezs last 13 road starts.Tigers are 3-7 in their last 10 overall.Mariners are 4-0 in Gaviglios last 4 starts.Tigers are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.

SANCHEZ team when he starts is 7-18 L/25 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. SANCHEZ team when he starts is 2-13  against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher.

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win vs the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Blue Jays RH Marco Estrada (4-5, 4.54 ERA) vs. Rangers RH Austin Bibens-Dirkx (2-0, 3.28)

Rangers starting hurler Bibens-Dirkx (2-0, 3.28 ERA)  goes against Toronto and right-hander Marco Estrada (4-5, 4.54 ERA) on Monday as the Rangers and Blue Jays open a four-game series.Rangers starter, as yet to allow more than three runs in any of his seven appearances, and is solid pitcher to back in this spot play. Toronto's starting thrower Estrada  is not in good form .  He has not performed well throughout June, losing all three of his starts and has not pitched more than 5 2/3 innings in those tilts garnering a  12.08 ERA  including get smacked around by Tampa Bay for six runs on 2 hits in 3 1/3 innings in his last turn. I'm betting on the Rangers, a team that does their best offensive work at home averaging 5.4 rpg, will get the better of Estrada and the Jays in this spot.

Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.Rangers are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.Rangers are 13-4 in their last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.

Rangers are 37-17 in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

TEXAS is 20-8 L/28 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%).TEXAS is 35-19  against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 dating back to last season.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win vs the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Indians RH Corey Kluber (5-2, 4.15 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (7-5, 3.29)

The starting pitching matchup for Monday's series opener is a a  a top tier quality with the Orioles' Dylan Bundy (7-5, 3.29 ERA) opposing Cleveland's Corey Kluber (5-2, 4.15 ERA). Both teams also have solid bullpens with the Indians recording a 2.82 ERA, and the Os bullpen with a 3.39 ERA at home.

Cleveland has averaged 4.5 rpg on the road this season via a .244 BA. Baltimore has averaged 4.6 rpg overall and 4.6 rpg at home. Im betting because of the pitching matchup, being on the low side of their averages. I also expect Cleveland after a 4 game sweep of the Twins to come in here in a bit of a letdown situation which should effect out put as well. 

Under is 6-0 in Klubers last 6 starts vs. American League East.Under is 19-6-2 in Indians last 27 road games.Under is 36-15-5 in Indians last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 10-1-1 in Bundys last 12 starts during game 1 of a series.Under is 9-2 in Bundys last 11 home starts.Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Baltimore.

CLEVELAND is 16-4 UNDER L/20 in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.CLEVELAND is 18-4 UNDER L/22 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5.CLEVELAND is 18-4 UNDER L/22 in road games against AL East opponents.CLEVELAND is 12-2 UNDER L/14 in road games after allowing 3 runs or less 4 straight games.BUNDY is 12-2 UNDER  at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 with a combined average 5.7 rpg going on the board.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Indians RH Corey Kluber (5-2, 4.15 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (7-5, 3.29)

The starting pitching matchup for Monday's series opener between Baltimore and Cleveland  is a a  a top tier quality with the Orioles' Dylan Bundy (7-5, 3.29 ERA) opposing Cleveland's Corey Kluber (5-2, 4.15 ERA). Note: Kluber is 1-2 in 4 road turns this season along with a 4.50 ERA.

The Orioles (34-34 .500)  are finally starting to heat up and notched weekend wins over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Os cranked out five home runs in Saturday's 15-7 win and five more in an 8-5 victory Sunday.In the three-game series vs the Cards , the Orioles smacked 10 home runs and will flow here behind that momentum. Meanwhile, Im betting  Cleveland getting alot of respect from linesmakers here today after just sweeping the Minnesota Twins on the weekend,  will now be in a letdown situation, in Baltimore tonight.  

 Indians are 0-7 in the last 7 meetings in Baltimore .Orioles are 6-2 in Bundys last 8 home starts.Indians are 2-9 in Klubers last 11 Monday starts.

CLEVELAND is 3-9 L/12 against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season.

KLUBER is 4-10 L/14 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.BALTIMORE is 17-7  against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.BALTIMORE is 15-6 L/21 against the money line in home games after a win this season.

MLB teams coming off a 4 game sweep like Cleveland are 129-159 L/288 for a lowly 44.8% conversion rate.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Orioles - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring 8 runs or more are 59-48 for a 55% value line conversion rate.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Pirates RH Gerrit Cole (4-6, 4.54 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Matt Garza (3-2, 4.17)

Pittsburgh's  will send out inconsistent ace right-hander Gerrit Cole on Monday to face the Brewers. Cole (4-6, 4.54 ERA) owns a bloated 8.10 ERA in his L/3 starts overall and a 5.67 ERA on the road winning 2 of 7 trips to the hill .He did pitch well on Tuesday in his last start,  going seven strong innings allowing 1 run in Pittsburgh's 5-2 win over Colorado.In his four starts before Tuesday, however Cole went 1-2 with a 10.73 ERA, with 23 runs on 39 hits -- including eight homers -- allowed over 19 1/3 innings. He did not make it past five innings in any of those starts.Milwaukee will counter with right-hander Matt Garza (5-2, 4.17 ERA).He pitched very well with a no-decision May 6 against Cole and the Pirates, giving up just one run on eight hits over seven innings and once again gives the Brewers a very good chance at victory today.

Pirates are 2-7 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Pirates are 8-21 in their last 29 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Pirates are 3-9 in their last 12 during game 1 of a series.

GARZA is 8-1 L/9 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse.PITTSBURGH is 1-11 L/12   against the money line off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival ( Chicago beat the Bucks 7-1 yesterday

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Nationals RH Tanner Roark (6-4, 4.39 ERA) vs. Marlins LH Justin Nicolino (0-1, 4.15)

We are getting a decent line here today with the Nationals because Miami has been playing decent ball of late and Tanner Roarke the Nationals starter today has struggled a little bit lately. But he is a capable hurler who must not be underestimated. It must also be noted that Roark beat the Marlins in his first start of the season at Nationals Park on April 5.

Meanwile the Marlins will send Justin Nicolino (0-1, 4.15) a southpaw who is returning from the disabled list and will make his first start since May 30, which means he will be rusty, which is not a good thing vs a potent Nationals offense that is averaging, 5.6 RPG on the road this season.NICOLINO is 0-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 8.62 and a WHIP of 1.595.

Nationals are 11-3 in their last 14 road games.Nationals are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series.Nationals are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Nationals are 8-2 in Roarks last 10 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Marlins are 0-6 in Nicolinos last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Marlins are 1-11 in Nicolinos last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Nationals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

 The Nats 24-13 on the road this season,  after a short funk, took three of four from the Mets in New York over the weekend are a viable side to back again tonight. WASHINGTON is 16-3 L/19 against the money line in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Play on the Washington Nationals to win vs the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Red Sox LH David Price (1-1, 5.09 ERA) vs. Astros RH Joe Musgrove (4-5, 4.81)

 The Red Sox starter today left-hander David Price (1-1, 5.09 ERA),  despite of a blaoted ERA, is getting more effecient after coming off the disabled list to start the season.Price was effective in  a quality start in his last appearance, allowing three runs on four hits and four walks while regisistering 6 strikeouts over six innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday.  Price is 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA over seven career starts against Houston, posting 61 strikeouts and a 0.93 WHIP over 50 1/3 innings in those appearances.The Astros have batted just .212 against Price while working only eight walks. Meanwhile, right hander, Joe Musgrove (4-5, 4.81 ERA) returned from the 10-day disabled list Monday against the Rangers goes to the hill for the Aastros. He is still exhibiting rust, and Im betting is not quite ready to compete here in this spot, despite of being forced into the lineup. 

MUSGROVE  when he starts has seen the Astros go 0-6 against the money line in home games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) this season. 

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the Astros - very good offensive team - scoring  5.4 or more  runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games, are just 12-35 dating back 21 seasons.

Play on the Boston Red Sox on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Royals LH Jason Vargas (9-3, 2.10 ERA) vs. Angels RH JC Ramirez (6-4, 4.19)

JC Ramirez, who starts Sunday for Los Angeles, has made five appearances against Kansas City. He is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA, including his first major league start in April. He owns a 7.31 ERA in his L/3 starts. I expect he gets lit up, today by a KC team that is waking up offensively of late. Meanwhile, Vargas despite of some very good efforts and stats this season, gos against a LAA side that has scored  4.6 rpg at home this season via a BA above the Mendoza line.

Over is 7-1 in Royals last 8 road games.Over is 12-2 in Royals last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-1 in Royals last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 24-9-2 in Angels last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in Ramirezs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.Over is 10-2-2 in Carlsons last 14 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.

KANSAS CITY is 16-6 OVER L/22 after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span.LA ANGELS are 29-16 OVER L/45 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record with a combined average of 8.7 rpg.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Padres RH Luis Perdomo (1-3, 5.16 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Jimmy Nelson (4-3, 3.67)

Padermo the Padres starting thrower got his first win of the season after 11 starts last time out, but remains fade material according to my pitcher power rankings and is 0-2 along with a bloated 4.91 ERA this season. Meanwhile, Nelson has pitched very well at home of late, as is evident by three straight quality starts here and gives the edge to the Brewers in the rubber match of this series with the Padres. Milwaukee's rotation has combined to go 9-4 with a 2.95 ERA over its past 23 games, striking out 111 while walking just 42 and Im expecting the Brewers starter today Nelson to holster the Padres current power surge that has seen them blasting alot of HRS.

Padres are 0-4 in Perdomos last 4 road starts.Padres are 16-40 in their last 56 road games.Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Padres are 7-21 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.Padres are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.

 The Padres have proven their ability to feed off momentum is a problem with them as they are just  is 11-31 L/43 against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games dating back to last season.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Cubs RH John Lackey (4-7, 5.26 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Jameson Taillon (3-1, 2.90)

Cubs starter Lackey dropped his fourth straight decision Monday vs the New York Mets and is fde material for me here in Pittsburght today.He's given up 11 homers in his last six starts, and 19 already this season. He's 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA on the road this year. Meanwhile,  the Pirates Taillon made a victorious return to the hill  Monday after missing more than a  month following a diagnosis of testicular cancer in early May. He aloowed five hits and striking out five over as many scoreless innings in a win versus Colorado. What has happened to this  young man can sometimes ignite  focus in a human being and today I'm expecting a quality start from him. He produced a quality outing in his last start against Chicago, limiting the Cubs to one run in seven innings.In 34 career starts, Taillon is 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA. He is 2-1 in three career starts against Chicago with a 2.65 ERA. When Tallon starts his team is  9-2  against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last couple of seasons. He goes against a Cubs team that is averaging just .229 BA as a team on the road .

I  am betting on the  World Series hangover for the Cubs to haunt them again today. 

PITTSBURGH is 15-8  against the money line in day games this season.CHICAGO CUBS are 4-18 L/22 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 dating back to last season.

MLB team like the Pirates - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a below avg. starter (ERA= 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 38-12 L/50 opportunities for a 76% for bettors. 

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Marlins RH Jose Urena (5-2, 3.70 ERA) vs. Braves RH Mike Foltynewicz (4-5, 4.37)

Today we have two pitchers off different types of efforts last time out. Urena the Marlins man on the hill today held Oakland to one run on three hits over six innings in recording his fourth straight victory, Foltynewicz allowed eight runs in 3 1/3 innings at Washington in which he was +210, dog. By the way getting blasted by the explosive Nats happens to alot of hurlers, and many of these throwers bounce back. Meanwhule, despite of Ureana quality start last time out, it must be noted that the Marlins are 0-8 when Urena is off a start where went more than 6 innings and allowed 6 or less hits. Note: URENA is 0-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 9.82 and a WHIP of 1.909.

 Also Foltynewicz (4-5, 4.37 ERA) previous to his last outing has been a hotter pitcher than Urena , competing in  consecutive seven-inning scoreless outings before the downer  game at Washington.

MIAMI is 4-15  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.FOLTYNEWICZ team when he starts  is 10-1  against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game.MIAMI is 9-31L/40 against the money line in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games.

MLB road teams like the Marlins - off a one run loss versus a division rival, in a game involving two bad teams (38% to 46%) are 12-32 L/44 opportunities for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Ray the Dbacks starter today is (7-3, 2.62 ERA) has been on fire of late as the numbers from his last five starts indicate , = perfect 5-0 record while allowing one run in 37 innings. Im betting on him having a good day vs the Phillies inconsistent batting order that struggles vs southpaw pitching with a .229 BA and just 3.9 rpg of offensive production. Meanwhile, the Phillies will counter with Rookie Ben Lively,  this Sunday. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts and in 21 innings he has five strikeouts. This kid attacks the zone, and is agressive and must not be underestimated in his abilities to slow a DBacks team that averages just 3.7 rpg on the road  via a lowly .230 BA.

ARIZONA is 22-12 UNDER in road games this season with a combined average of 7.4 rpg going on the scoreboard. .RAY is 24-10 UND in road games over the last few seasons with a combined average of 6.9 rpg getting scored. PHILADELPHIA is 23-11 UNDER L/34 in home games with double revenge - 2 straight losses dating back to last seasons.with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored.  

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (6-4, 4.68 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Ivan Nova (6-4, 2.83)

Arrieta the Cubbies starting hurler today has decent overall stats vs the Pirates in his career, but has struggled mightily in recent meetings. He posted a 1.46 ERA in his first 12 starts but has pitched to an 8.61 ERA in the last four and has been below average onf the road this season, as is evident by recording a 5.20 ERA including 9 HRs in 8 tilts.  I'm betting a Pirates team has scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their L/7 overall will do some damage here tonight against him again . Meanwhile, Ivan Nova the Pirates starter , despite of some decent stats this season, goes against a Chicago offense that has averaged 5.8 rpg in division games this season, and an average of 5.6 rpg in production during a current 7 game stretch. These teams took part in a 9-5/14 run output yesterday and more of the same action can be expected tonight. 

Over is 5-0 in Arrietas last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Arrietas last 12 starts overall.Over is 7-1-1 in Arrietas last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in Arrietas last 4 starts vs. Pirates.Over is 20-7-1 in the last 28 meetings in Pittsburgh.Over is 4-1 in Novas last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Over is 5-1 in home plate umpire Fagans last 6 games behind home plate.

PITTSBURGH is 23-8 OVER L/31 as a home underdog of +100 or higher with a combined average of 10.5 rpg going on the board. ARRIETA is 8-0 OVER L/8 in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game with a combined average of 10.6 rpg going on the board.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Rays- Chris Archer ( R) vs Tigers - Michael Fulmer ( R)

Todays two starting pitchers Archer for TB and Fulmer for the Tigers are operating at what my own stats and numbers feels is average to sub par work, and both look susceptible to being lit up. Archer owns a 4.35 ERA in 6 road starts this season allowing 33 hits in 39 innings, but has 18 walks along the way.  M.Fulmer the Tigers starter has struggled of late, after a quick start and owns a 6.05 ERA in his L/3 starts, and a 4.71 ERA on the road this season. He has allowed 25 hits in his 19.3 innings of work, along with 13 ERS.

Going into Friday nights action,  TB has done their best offensive work vs right handed starters this season averaging 5 rpg via a .266 BA along with 73 HRS. Meanwhile, Detroit has done their best offensive work at home, averaging 5.4 rpg. The Tigers have do some scoring as their bullpen when called upon owns a bloated 5.16 ERA.

Everything points to this being a fairly high scoring affair this Saturday. 

TAMPA BAY is 11-1 OVER  in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start dating back to last  season with a combined average o 12.2 rpg getting scored and is 9-1 OVER  in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season with a combined average of 10.9 rpg.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 like the Rays - lower tier hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a top level starting pitcher (ERA 3.60 or less, WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 58-19 to the over for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Giants RH Matt Cain (3-5, 5.22 ERA) vs. Rockies LH Kyle Freeland (7-4, 3.57)

Cain the Giants starter is current in a funk as is evident by his 0-4 record over his last five trips to the hill and has given up five or more runs in three of those turns. Cain has struggled away from home, and has gone 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA in six road starts  this season. Meanwhile, Freeland lost his last start, but won four of his previous five trips to the mound and showed longevity by going at least 6 innings in those tilts.Freeland defeated the Giants on April 23,  allowing just six hits in seven scoreless innings of superb work. With that said, Colorado has owned the SF Giants this season winning 9 of 10 meetings, and once again look like a viable investment option in this spot. 

Giants are 1-6 in Cains last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are 4-0 in Freelands last 4 starts vs. National League West.Giants are 0-4 in Cains last 4 starts vs. Rockies.Giants are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Colorado.

SAN FRANCISCO is 7-21 against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season, losing by an average of 2 rpg.SAN FRANCISCO is 2-12  against the money line revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs losing the followup game by an average of 3.7 rpg. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Giants - NL team with a low on-base percentage (.350 or less ) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or better), with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games are 73-176 for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Royals RH Ian Kennedy (0-6, 5.40 ERA) vs. Angels RH Jesse Chavez (5-6, 5.06)

Kennedy the Royals starter  after a decent start to his season has had a ugly downfall   as the season  has progressed and has allowed four or more runs in each of his last six trips to the hill.Kennedy is 0-6 with a 5.40 ERA in 2017 and is also 0-4 with a 4.80 ERA in six career games against the Angels. He is 0-2 with a 6.12 ERA in five road starts this season. He faces a Angles offense that does their best work at home where they average 4.6 rpg.  Note in their L/5 games LAA has averaged 5.3 rpg , and look like that could equal that average in this spot. Meanwhile, Chavez the Halos starter gave up a season-high six runs against Houston in his last trip to the mound lasting only 3 2/3 innings. The Angels right hander has given up at least one HR in 11 consecutive appearances, and is a candidate for implosion today vs a KC team hitting at a .300 clip and averaging 6.6 rpg during a current 7 game span.

KANSAS CITY is 16-5 OVER  after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span, with a combined average of 10 rpg going on the board. 

Over is 7-0 in Royals last 7 road games.ver is 6-0-1 in Kennedys last 7 starts overall.Over is 6-0 in Royals last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 24-8-2 in Angels last 34 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

San Diego starter today  Diaz, was 1-8 with a 3.71 ERA in 26 appearances (15 starts) last season for Class A Wisconsin,  and was picked up by the Padres in the Rule 5 draft in December. He began the season in San Diego's bullpen, going 1-1 with a 7.50 ERA in 21 appearances and a 2.31 ERA since May 6, but despite of some decent starts is a candidate for downgrade according to my own pitcher power rankings. Meanwhile, the Brewers will respond with, Junior Guerra who is  1-1 with a 2.45 ERA this season. He was in top form last time out,   holding the Diamondbacks to three runs on five hits in six innings f solid work. I know the Padres have been playing a little better of late, but are just  10-30 L/40 against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 game.

GUERRA is 12-5 L/17  against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse dating back to last season.MILWAUKEE is 9-3 L/12 against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse this season. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Padres - with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are 14-59 for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on the Milwuakee Brewers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Dodgers LH Alex Wood (6-0, 2.01 ERA) vs. Reds RH Tim Adleman (4-2, 4.34)

Wood is 6-0 with a 2.01 ERA in 11 appearances including nine starts and to some might seem like a solid bet here. But I m not so sure, as his opponents the Reds are a team that he faced in his last start and may no longer have an edge vs a Reds batting order thats getting to know him. It must be noted that , WOOD team when he starts are just   4-13 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record. He faces a Reds offense that has averaged 5.6 rpg at home this season. Cincinnati counters with right-hander Tim Adleman (4-2, 4.34) who will make his 11th straight start for the Reds. He has faced the Dodgers twice in his career. Last August 19, he tossed five shutout innings against them in a 9-2 victory. On Sunday, he gave up a pair of home runs through five innings and received a no-decision in a 9-7 loss. He faces a Dodgers team that has averaged just 4.4 rpg on the road this season.

WOODs team is 3-9 L/12 against the money line when he starts as a road favorite of -110 or higher and is 9-21  against the money line in road games.Dodgers are 0-6 in Woods last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Reds are 4-0 in Adlemans last 4 home starts.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more like the Dodgers - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 18-31 for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Nationals RH Max Scherzer (7-4, 2.36 ERA) vs. Mets LH Steven Matz (1-0, 1.29)

Scherzer’s  been tearing opposing batting orders up of late, as he has reached double digits in strikeouts in four straight outings and is 3-1 along with a 1.13 ERA over that stretch with 48 strikeouts and five walks in 32 innings of work. I' expecting he will be dominant again vs a banged up patched up NYM batting order. He did lose last time out,  to Texas ( 5-1) but , the Nats are a perfect 10-0 when he starts after the team lost as favorites in his last home start.  Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Matz also looked good after coming off the disabled list with an elbow injury, but will I'm betting not be ready for a pitcher duel with Scherzer yet. 

Nationals are 21-8 in Scherzers last 29 starts.Nationals are 52-24 in their last 76 vs. National League East.Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Nationals are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.Nationals are 43-14 in the last 57 meetings in New York.

NY METS are 2-10  against the money line in home games vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse this season.WASHINGTON is 8-0  against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 this season.NY METS are 6-12 against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.

Washington Nationals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Cardinals RH Carlos Martinez (5-5, 2.95 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Kevin Gausman (3-5, 6.49)

The Baltimore Orioles return home in a major funk after  a horrible eight-game road trip where they lost seven of eight . The Orioles started fast out of the gates this season, but have now lost 23 of their 33 overall, as their  starting pitching , injuries , and a lackluster offense and lack of clutch hitting have been the key issues. Things don't look to get much better today, as they send fire baller  Kevin Gausman (3-5, 6.49) to the hill to face the Cardinals in game 1 of this series. The O's right hander  has not looked good this season, and is on the verge of demotion, because of control issues. He gave up seven runs in 3 1/3 innings in a 14-3 loss at the Yankees in his last trip to the hill , as he  walked six and did not register a strikeout. The Cardinals will answer with Carlos Martinez (5-5, 2.95), who threw his first career complete game in his last start in a 7-0 win vs the Phillies and has recorded a stingy 1.93 ERA in his L/3 starts . I know the Cards themselves don't inspire confidence, but in this situation, they do look like solid bets.

GAUSMAN is 0-9 L/9 against the money line when playing on Friday over the last few seasons. ( This is an interesting anomaly)GAUSMAN team  is 4-16  against the money line when he starts  as an underdog of +100 to +150 . 

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Orioles - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a very good NL starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or better), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 8-37 on the moneyline for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

Play on the St.Louis Cardinals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Cubs RH Eddie Butler (3-2, 4.03 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Trevor Williams (3-3, 5.13)

Chicago will send right-hander Eddie Butler (3-2, 4.03 ERA) against Pittsburgh on Friday.Butler, making his seventh start. He will go head to head off against Pirates right-hander Trevor Williams (3-3, 5.13 ERA), who started the season in the bullpen but has replaced Tyler Glasnow in the rotation. Both look very susceptible to the others opposing offense. 

The Cubs have scored an average of 5.7 rpg in division games this season with a combined average o 10.4 rpg going on the board. Pittsburgh offense has a team BA of .295 and a OBP of .358 duing a upsurge during a recent 7 game span. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 24-6 OVER L/30 in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game. PITTSBURGH is 17-2 OVER  in home games after scoring 1 run or less over the last 2 seasons.Over is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings in Pittsburgh.Over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.Over is 25-10-1 in Cubs last 36 vs. National League Central.Over is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 games following a loss.

Diamondbacks LH Patrick Corbin (5-6, 5.38 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Aaron Nola (3-4, 4.40)

After ending a  eight-game funk Thursday with a 1-0 win over the Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia opens a weekend series Friday with the Arizona Diamondbacks (41-26) hoping to feed off the momentum of their last victory as under rated thrower Nola who is 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA in eight starts this season goes to the hill.He goes against a Dbacks offense that has averaged just 3.7 rpg on the road this season via lowly .226 BA and a below .500 road record overall (15-17).  It must noted that Nola despite of his promise, was lectured by his Manager Mackanin last time out, saying their are no excuses for his ugly pitch counts of late, which I'm betting ignites this kid to perform here tonight. Meanwhile, Arizona despite of operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, look like fade material in this spot, with inconsistent Arizona pitcher Patrick Corbin,  on the hill, who is 5-6 with a 5.38 ERA. The DBacks starter has really been struggling and launched his ERA from 2.29 in April to 5.38 after his last seven trips to the hill. He's 1-1 with a 6.94 ERA in two career starts against Philadelphia. ( Philadelphia despite of a dismal season are just 2 games under .500 at home this season, and have shown some fight here)

Diamondbacks are 1-10 in Corbins last 11 road starts.Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the Dbacks - very good NL offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or worse over his last 5 starts are just 11-47 for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Yankees LH Jordan Montgomery (4-4, 3.55 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Sonny Gray (2-2, 4.37)

The Yankees enter this game scoring an average of 6 rpg vs right handed starters like the As man on the hill today Gray. Meanwhile, the As have done their best offensive work at home this season averaging 4.8 rpg behind the power of 48  HRs.  Oakland because of their tendency to take part in some high scoring games of late, have seen only 1 of their L/12 games fail to eclipse the Total (9-1-2 Over ), and I'm betting another barn burner today as they face  pinstripe starter Jordan Montgomery who according to my own power rankings remains vulnerable despite of decent stats of late.

GRAY is 10-0 OVER  as an underdog of +100 to +150 dating back to last season, with a combined average of 13.6 rpg scored. GRAY is 8-0 OVER L/8 against AL East opponents with a combined average of 12.3 rog getting scored.

Over is 5-0 in Athletics last 5 vs. American League East.Over is 4-0 in Grays last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.Over is 20-7-1 in Grays last 28 starts overall.

NY YANKEES are 13-4 OVER  vs. lower tier speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game this season with a combined average score of 12.1 rpg scored. OAKLAND is 11-1 OVER L/12 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.

MLB  teams  like the Athletics  - after allowing 9 runs or more against opponent after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less have gone over 33 of the L/43 times.

Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Mariners LH Ariel Miranda (6-2, 3.67 ERA) vs. Twins RH Jose Berrios (5-1, 2.84)

Miranda has won five consecutive decisions and allowed just nine earned runs over his last six starts and looks very much like a viable pitcher to back in this spot vs the Twins. Meanwhile, Berrios despite of decent numbers this season, and a couple of good starts in a row has struggled at home going  1-6 with a 7.43 ERA in eight career starts at Target Field. The right hander is backed by a struggling bullpen that owns a 5.91 ERA at home this season.

Seattle accumulated  27 runs while winning two of the first three games of the series vs the Twins  and as a whole the suddenly explosive Mariners offense has  scored five or more runs  in 11 of its last 12 wins and I'm betting on more of the same winning action in this spot on the moneyline.

Mariners are 4-0 in Mirandas last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Twins are 1-7 in Berrios' last 8 home starts.Mariners are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota

SEATTLE is 12-2  against the money line after batting .333 or better over a 3 game span this season.MINNESOTA is 3-11  against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

MLB Road teams like the Mariners - a hot hitting team - batting .280 or better over their last 20 games, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.000  or less over his last 5 starts are 82-35 for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Mariners LH Ariel Miranda (6-2, 3.67 ERA) vs. Twins RH Jose Berrios (5-1, 2.84)

Target Field is getting a reputation of being a launching pad, like Coors Field in Colorado. The average combined score of games here this season, has seen  11 rpg go on the board, with afternoon games seeing 10.7 combined rpg scored. Today Im expecting we will get another one of those high scoring affairs. Both these teams can be explosive offensively, and lately the Mariners have become one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the AL, as is evident, by scoring 27 runs while winning 2 of the first three games in this series, and have scored 5 runs or more in 11 of their L/12 victories. I'm expecting them to do more damage today vs a starting pitcher in Berrios that despite of good overall numbers has a history of getting blasted at home here in Target field , where he owns a bloated 7.43 ERA in 8 career starts. Meanwhile, the Twins , I'm betting will also do just enough offensive damage vs Miranda who gets plenty of run support  for wins on the road, despite of a 5.69 road ERA, to help this total combined score eclipse the number. 

MINNESOTA is 13-4 OVER  after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse this season. MINNESOTA is 30-10 OVER L/40 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 with a combined average of 11 rpg going on the board. 

MINNESOTA is 15-6 OVER L/21 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season with a combined average of 11.3 rpg getting scored. MINNESOTA is 38-15 OVER L/53  vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse with a combined average of 11.1 rpg clicking in on the board.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 like the Twins - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 37-11 for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Mariners RH Sam Gaviglio (2-1, 2.79 ERA) vs. Twins RH Ervin Santana (8-3, 2.20)

Gaviglio has pitched decently in limited outing this season, but  has struggled in splitting a pair of decisions on the road where he owns a 4.91 ERA. Meanwhile, the Twins will respond with Ervin Santana their ace of their staff. He has some solid numbers this season, but it must be noted that  he has been vulnerable at home .

 SANTANA is 23-9 OVER in his career when the total is 10 or higher, with a combined average of 12.1 rpg going on the board. 

Yesterday Minnesota set a franchise record with 28 hits in a 20-7 drubbing of Seattle, and Im betting on another high scoring tilt tonight.

Over is 6-1-1 in Mariners last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER  in home games against AL West opponents this season with a combined average of 16.8 rpg going on the board.

MINNESOTA is 27-9 OVER L/36 as a home favorite of -110 or higher dating back to last season, with a combined average of 10.9 rpg going on the score board. 

MLB teams like Minnesota  - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA 4.50 or better), hot hitting team - batting .305 or better over their last 5 games are 32-8 OVER for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Rangers RH Andrew Cashner (3-5, 3.17 ERA) vs. Astros RH Francis Martes (0-0, 9.82)

Martes the Astros starter has been brought in to make his first career start Wednesday with Houston's rotation decimated by injury. Meanwhile, the red hot Texas Rangers starters having allowed only seven runs on 22 hits over 32 innings during their current 5 game winning streak and Andreew Cashner looks to keep that momentum going.Cashner, 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA over his last five starts, and has six quality starts over his last eight trips to the hill.
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The Rangers also very much look like they have the edge tonight vs a Hosuton team that after an 11 game win streak have lost 6 of their L/8 in classic Dr.Jeckyll /Mr.Hyde fashion.

TEXAS is 7-0 against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season.

Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.Rangers are 75-34 in the last 109 meetings.

Play on the Texas  Rangers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Rays RH Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.59 ERA) vs. Blue Jays LH Francisco Liriano (3-2, 5.87)

The Rays will start right-hander Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.59 ERA) against Blue Jays left-hander Francisco Liriano (3-2, 5.87 ERA). The Rays starter Odorizzi has allowed home runs in eight straight starts, and looks susceptible to being smashed around today. The right hander has had a propensity to allow alot of home runs, as is evident by the 16 last that he's given up in his past 17 starts, and a total of 19 homers on the season . With that said, against a explosive Toronto offense , he and his team are in trouble. ODORIZZI's team when he starts is 0-11 against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/per game.
Rays are 1-10 in Odorizzis last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Blue Jays are 5-0 in Lirianos last 5 starts.Rays are 1-4 in Odorizzis last 5 road starts vs. Blue Jays.

The Jays got torched by the Rays yesterday by a 8-1 count, but Im betting on them bouncing back in this spot. TORONTO is 10-1 L/11 against the money line revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less this season.

Play on the Toronto Blue Jays to win on the moneyline   

Braves RH Julio Teheran (5-4, 5.08 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Tanner Roark (6-3, 3.87)

The Washington Nationals will send starting pitcher Tanner Roark (6-3, 3.87 ERA) to the hill  on Wednesday in the series finale against the Atlanta Braves. The right hander  has pitched very well  Braves in his career. The University of Illinois product is 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA in 15 appearances , including  10 starts vs the Braves.(Nationals are 5-0 in Roarks last 5 home starts vs. Braves.) Last year, he was 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA in three starts against the Braves, and once again looks like a viable pitcher to back in this spot.ROARK's team  is 18-4  against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season dating back to the last campaign. He goes against a Braves team that has averaged 3.7 rpg during a recent 7 game span. The starter for Atlanta will be right-hander Julio Teheran (5-4, 5.08 ERA).Teheran  has made 15 career starts against the Nationals and is 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA and earlier this  season, and was torched by the Nats explosive bats  garnering a ugly 15.75 ERA in his one start in this series. It must be noted that the Nationals are averaing 5.9 rpg vs righty starters like Teheran this season.Braves are 0-8 in Teherans last 8 starts vs. Nationals.

The Nationals lost yesterday and today Im betting they return with a vengeance and get the victory on the moneyline!  

Play on the Washington Nationals on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Cubs LH Jon Lester (3-4, 4.13 ERA) vs. Mets RH Zack Wheeler (3-3, 3.45)

The Chicago Cubs have lost nine straight on the road heading into the second of a three-game series against the New York Mets on Tuesday and things don't look to get much better tonight, behind struggling starter Lester  who has gone 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA over  his last three starts .  Meanwhile, the Mets  have won four straight and are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum. Wheeler the Mets starting hurler has allowed more than two runs only once in his last seven starts , and looks like a viable pitcher to back in this spot. Wheeler was outstanding in two starts against the Cubs, both in 2014, going 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 17 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings.

 Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Cubs are 3-14 in their last 17 road games.Cubs are 0-7 in the last 7 meetings in New York.

.CHICAGO CUBS are 1-8  against the money line in road games after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse this season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the Mets - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, well rested bullpen - threw 2 or less innings in each of the last 3 games are 36-14 dating back 5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Mets to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection  

Phillies RH Jerad Eickhoff (0-7, 5.15 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (3-8, 4.46)

Porcello (3-8, 4.46 ERA) has not pitched like a reigning American League Cy Young Award winner. The right-hander leads the AL in hits allowed (104) and has lost three consecutive starts but he is a quality hurler, that will right his ship sooner than later. He goes against a struggling Phillies offense that has averaged just 3.3 rpg during a current 7 game run. Meanwhile, Eickhoff (0-7, 5.15 ERA) posted a 2.55 ERA in his first four starts and looked like a viable pitching alternative and since that fast start owns a 6.75 ERA since. Eickhoff is 4-2 with a 4.43 ERA in eight career interleague starts. Im betting both these pitchers will benefit facing opposing offenses that are not accustomed to their stuff and for this to be much lower scoring game than the linesmakers and starting pitching might indicate.

Under is 15-6-1 in Eickhoffs last 22 starts with 4 days of rest.Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 home games.Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

FARRELL Bostons Manager is 51-26 UNDER vs. top tier defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game with the average combined score of 8 rpg going on the board.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection   

Brewers RH Chase Anderson (5-1, 2.94 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks LH Robbie Ray (6-3, 2.85)

Two top tier pitchers go head to head today in the Desert as Milwaukee plays the Arizona DBacks in the last game of their 3 game series. Milwaukee will go with Chase Anderson (5-1, 2.94 ERA), and follows the momentum of a 21 2/3-inning scoreless streak.Anderson is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three career starts against the D-backs, including a 6-1 win May 27 at Miller Park. In that game, he pitched seven innings, allowing one hit and no runs while striking out 11 . Arizona counters with Robbie Ray (6-3, 2.85), who has gone on a spectacular run the past month. He has allowed one run in his last 30 1/3 innings while going 4-0, but is just 2-2 at home this season along with a bloated 5.67 ERA. What is interesting to note , is that RAY is just 1-8 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 dating back to last season.
Brewers are 10-1 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series.Diamondbacks are 3-9 in Rays last 12 starts vs. National League Central.Diamondbacks are 4-12 in Rays last 16 starts during game 3 of a series.

Milwaukee is a team that is not getting enough respect from linesmakers today, and I'm betting we have value with the underdog in this spot.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (6-2, 3.25 ERA) vs. Mariners LH Ariel Miranda (6-2, 3.74)

We have two pitchers who are in very good form going head to head today, but I'm betting on the home team here (Seattle) in this spot play. Miranda the Mariners LH starter has won three straight starts and five consecutive decisions while limiting hitters to a  .219 BA average this season. With the Jays struggling against southpaws this season , as is evident by a 3.6 rpg average and a .226 BA we have value taking the Mariners.The Mariners are 7-2 during an 11-game homestand  and have averaged 7.9 runs in the seven wins, and look in good shape to grab a 2nd straight win in this series today.

Blue Jays are 4-10 in Stromans last 14 starts on a natural surface.Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.Mariners are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.Mariners are 4-0 in Mirandas last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.Blue Jays are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Seattle.

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Rockies RH Jeff Hoffman (3-0, 2.61 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Eddie Butler (3-1, 3.75)

The Colorado Rockies 6'5" starting pitcher Hoffman , in his second big-league season, is 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA and looks to be in top form. During that top tier run he has allowed just five runs while striking out 24 spanning 19 1/3 innings. It must be noted the Cubs are only averaging 4.2 rpg vs righty hurlers this season and as a team are hitting under the Mendoza line (.243 BA).  Meanwhile, Butler the Cubs starter has also performed admirably, but going deep could be an issue today, as his longest outing was six innings on May 12 when he threw 94 pitches. Considering the Cubs bullpen is over worked and exhausted at the moment, that not a good omen for their chances vs a Rockies team that  leads the National League with 40 wins and are 23-10 away from Denver's mile-high Coors Field this season.

Right now the defending World Series Champs are not playing like a upper echelon team, while the Rockies are. Considering momentum and current form , the Rockies look like solid bets here today in Wrigely Field.

COLORADO is 15-6  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season.CHICAGO CUBS are 4-9 L/13 against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season dating back to the last campaign.COLORADO is 19-7  against the money line in day games this season and is 11-4 L/15 against the money line against NL Central opponents.CHICAGO CUBS are 3-8  against the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season and are 6-12  against the money line against NL West opponents this season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the Rockies - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) are 61-33 dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Phillies RH Jeremy Hellickson (5-3, 4.50 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (2-3, 4.67)

Hellickson the Phillies starter today is 2-1 with a bloated 5.03 ERA in three career outings against the Cardinals. He has also had problems over his past seven starts, recording a bloated 6.75 ERA in the process. If he falters, he is backed by a struggling bullpen that owns a 5.45 ERA in road tilts this season.

Meanwhile,  right-hander Michael Wacha (2-3, 4.67 ERA)  has failed to finish the fifth inning in each of his last three trips to the hill, giving up 16 runs (15 earned) in 11 1/3 innings of sub par work for a ugly 11.92 ERA. On a whole the Cards  rotation has been  failing to generate quality work of late  and has no  quality starts in any of the last seven games, as is evident by a nasty looking  7.18 ERA. The bullpen has also been atrocious of late surrendering  11 runs in its past 8 1/3 innings.

Considering my own projections on score this very much looks like a game that will eclipse the Total.

WACHA is 7-0 OVER  vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season with a combined average score of 11.5 rpg clicking in on the scoreboard. Philadelphia Manager MACKANIN is 12-2 OVER  after a game where his bullpen threw 1 inning or less with a combined score of 12.4 rpg getting scored.

Over is 7-3-1 in Phillies last 11 vs. National League Central.Over is 20-8-1 in Phillies last 29 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-0 in Wachas last 4 home starts.Over is 20-8-1 in Cardinals last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 like the Cards - team with a terrible SLG (.390 or lower) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or better) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season-NL are 40-8 OVER for a 83% conversion rate for over bettors dating back 20 seasons. Also MLB Road teams like the Phillies - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 10 games are 31-9 OVER for a 78% conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons. 

Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Phillies RH Ben Lively (1-0, 1.29 ERA) vs. Braves RH R.A. Dickey (3-4, 5.10)

Dickey the Braves starter seems like his light years away from returning to his Cy Young award campaign in 2012, and  has struggled to control his knuckleball while going 3-4 and posting a 5.10 ERA in 11 starts. Father time remains undefeated, and as time ticks by , Dickey is showing signs of wear and tear, and could easily get lit up today , by a sometimes explosive Phillies offense. The veteran owns a bloated  6.75 ERA with 31 hits allowed and 16 walks in his last 22 2/3 innings.  Meanwhile, the Phillies, starter is a young rookie with virtually no MLB  experience, despite of getting a win in his debut and the positive performance , he was far from over powering , with no strikeouts, with 98 pitches thrown. After watching the Braves smash away for 14 runs yesterday, and current 7 game run where they have averaged 5.9 rpg it will be an easy decision for me to project them getting 5 or more runs, vs a Philly team that has allowed an average 7 rpg during a current 7 game span,  which sets us up well for an over wager to hit . 

ATLANTA is 20-8 OVER L/28 after scoring 8 runs or more with a combined average of 10.1 rpg getting scored.ATLANTA is 21-7 OVER  as a home favorite of -110 or higher dating back to last  season with a combined average of 10.8 rpg getting scored.PHILADELPHIA is 22-9 OVER after allowing 9 runs dating back to last season.PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 OVER L/14 in road games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season with a combined average of 10 rpg clicking in on the board.

Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Over is 20-7-1 in Phillies last 28 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 8-2 in Phillies last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 games following a win.Over is 4-0 in Dickeys last 4 home starts.

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 like the Phillies - with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games are 41-13 OVER for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Padres LH Clayton Richard (4-6, 4.36 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks LH Patrick Corbin (4-6, 5.43)

Arizona's starter today against the San Diego Padres, Corbin has given up 51 hits and 31 earned runs in his last 31 innings encompassing six starts while struggling with location and  has given up 11 HRs in his last  six trips to the hill. Needless to say hes struggling . In his last 3 trips to the hill he has posted a ugly 9.00 ERA Meanwhile, the Padres hurler Richard has done well vs the desert dwellers as  is evident by a  10-4 record along with a stable  3.92 ERA in 16 games against the D-backs in his career. What makes him a viable starter in this spot is his ability to produce outs, via the ground ball. He has 140 ground balls, the most in the NL and his 59.1 percent ground-ball rate is the highest in the NL. Thats an important factor for me backing the Fathers as underdogs in hitter friendly Chase Field today.The  native of Indiana is 2-1 in three outings vs Arizona this season , and gets the nod again here in this spot play.

Padres are 10-4 in Richard's last 14 starts vs. National League West.Padres are 10-4 in Richards last 14 starts vs. Diamondbacks.Diamondbacks are 2-7 in Corbins last 9 starts vs. National League West.Diamondbacks are 1-7 in Corbins last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

I know the Padres may not inspire alot of bettors, after losing 4 straight games,  but it must be noted that MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Padres - poor NL offensive team (3.8 or less runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better), after allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 29-11 for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Also SAN DIEGO is 13-4 L/17 against the money line after 4 or more consecutive losses.

Play on the San Diego Padres to win on the money-line 1 unit reg selection 

White Sox RH Mike Pelfrey (2-4, 3.86 ERA) vs. Rays RH Jacob Faria (NR)

Jacob Faria, a 23-year-old right-hander, will be called up to make his major league debut, for the Rays today.  The kids looked good in the minors, but this is entirely different level of ball. Meanwhile, Chicago fires back with right-hander Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey (2-4, 3.86 ERA) is in top form of late as is evident by a  2-0 record along  with a 1.13 ERA in his past three starts, recording 15 strikeouts against only three walks in that span. He goes against a TB team that is on a four game losing streak, and struggling on offense, scoring just a total of 9 runs during the current funk and look like fade material at the moment. 

White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games on astroturf.Rays are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.White Sox are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings

MLB Road teams like the White Sox - hot hitting team - batting .280 or better over their last 20 games, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  of 1.000 or less over his last 5 starts are 81-33 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win vs the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Indians RH Trevor Bauer (5-4, 5.83 ERA) vs. Rockies LH Kyle Freeland (6-3, 3.53)

Bauer the Indians starter today vs the Rockies  is making his first career start at Coors Field and has struggled in six road outings this season, going 2-3 with a 6.14 ERA.Indians are 0-4 in Bauers last 4 interleague starts. I know that  Bauer has improved  in recent starts, but what is still troubling  is a high rate of barreled balls. On the season, 20 of the 158 batted balls he's allowed have been barrels, which is a 12.7 percent rate. That's the second-highest in the Majors. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from the Colorado Rockies Freeland is off his 8th quality start last time out, and  owns a 19-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last five trips to the hill.Rockies are 5-1 in Freelands last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Cleveland has struggled against lefties this season averaging just 3.8 rpg via lowly .235 BA.Freeland pitched against the Indians on March 22 during Spring Training, holding the Tribe to one run over five innings and once again looks like a viable hurler to back in this spot play.

Indians are 1-9 in their last 10 interleague games.Indians are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with an above .500 record.Indians are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. National League West.Indians are 3-9 in their last 12 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.ockies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.Indians are 0-7 in the last 7 meetings in Colorado.

CLEVELAND is 6-11against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.COLORADO is 10-4  L/14 against the money line vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 2.70 or better.

FREELAND is 7-1  against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Twins LH Héctor Santiago (4-5, 4.76 ERA) vs. Mariners LH James Paxton (4-0, 1.26)

Santiago the Twins starter has struggled of late but has had success against the Mariners with a 3.09 ERA in 55 1/3 innings, including a 2.22 ERA in 24 1/3 innings at Safeco Field.  Seattle has averaged just 3.5 rpg vs southpaw hurlers this season, so their chances are not as good as the linemakers are suggesting in my humble opinion. Meanwhile, I know his  pitching opponent  Paxton has been in great form this season, and looked good last time out, after coming off the disabled list. But before we give him a Cy  Young award, lets see some longer term consistency from the fireballer. With that said, the Twins are the type of offense that can tee up on Paxtons heat, and I feel we have value backing them in this spot. 

The Twins have MLBs best road record (16-7) and must not be underestimated in this spot. 

MINNESOTA is 9-2  against the money line in road games vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season and is 10-3  against the moneyline n road games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.MINNESOTA is 6-0 ( against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season.PAXTONs when he starts has seen his team go  8-15 L/23 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game.MINNESOTA is 14-5  against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.PAXTON is 6-15 L/21 against the money line in night games .

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more like the Mariners - starting a pitcher who gave up 1 earned runs or less in his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more  over his last 5 starts are just a even proposition at .500 85-85 dating back 20 seasons. Also in a subset to this trend_  MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Mariners - starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less  earned runs in his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or more over his last 5 starts have won lost 45 of the the L/81 times for a go against conversion rate for 56% for underdog bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Twins to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Indians RH Mike Clevinger (2-2, 3.10 ERA) vs. Rockies RH Antonio Senzatela (7-2, 3.49)

Rockies starting hurler Rookie right-hander Antonio Senzatela  has been solid  at home  this season. Senzatela is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in the first six career starts at Coors Field and once again looks like a solid option in this spot. Meanwhile, Mike Clevinger the Indians starter, takes the mound Tuesday for the Indians in the series opener as the Indians test a 1-5 interleague record. Clevinger suffered his second loss of the season last time out when he allowed three runs over 6 2/3 innings against Oakland while allowing  two HRS for the second straight game. That never a good omen for a pitcher, especially going into the launching pad know as Coors Field.

Indians are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.ndians are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are 31-72 in their last 103 interleague games.Indians are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Colorado.

COLORADO is 13-7 L/20 against the money line vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better dating back to last season. COLORADO is 9-2 L/11 against the money line after allowing 1 run or less this season.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Nola the Phillies starter today vs the Braves has given up nine runs over nine innings in his past two outings and looks like canoon fodder here again.He is 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA in three starts since spending time on the disabled list due to a strained lower back. Meanwhile, Jamie Garcia the Braves starter has been in good form lately, but  the  Braves have a 5.49 ERA at SunTrust Park -- the worst for any team in the majors at their home field.

These teams took part in a 11-4 slugfest yesterday that the Phillies won, and I expect that explosive offensive momentum to continue into todays tilt. 

Over is 27-9-3 in Phillies last 39 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 11-4 in Nolas last 15 starts overall.Over is 9-2 in Nolas last 11 road starts.Over is 44-12-1 in Braves last 57 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 66-32-4 in Braves last 102 overall.Over is 34-16-2 in Braves last 52 home games

PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 OVER L/20 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more with a combined average o 11.2 rpg going on the board.ATLANTA is 20-4 OVER L/24 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more were scored with a combined average of 10.8 rpg going on the board.

MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 like the Phillies - with a team batting average of .250 or worse on the season (NL), after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games have gone over 33 of the 40 times, for a massive 83% conversion rate for over bettors.

Play Over 1 unit reg selection 

Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (4-1, 3.03 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-5, 3.91)

Gonzalez the Nationals starter despite of a decent record, owns a 4.67 ERA in his L/3 starts, along with a ugly 1.731 WHIP and is is a pitcher that is struggling with his control this season, and is tied for worst walk count in the major leagues with 35. Thats troubling against a Dodgers offense, that is its best at home, averaging 5.5 rpg and have 81 walks vs lefty hurlers this season. Gonzalez is back with a bullpen that owns a ugly 6.50 ERA in road games this season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers southpaw starter tonight  vs the Nationals, finished May in good form , working  in top tier  fashion  with a no-decision at St. Louis on Wednesday, allowing one run on three hits  while throwing  just 77 pitches over six innings.  Prior to that Ryu captured his first career save six days earlier with four scoreless frames  of work and looks primed to carry on those efforts and cool off a hot Nationals batting order that has struggled against LHP  scoring an average of 3.4 rpg this season. which is   2.3 rpg less than their overall offensive run output . Note: RYU is backed  by a bullpen with a stingy 2.07 ERA. 

Nationals are 1-4 in Gonzalezs last 5 starts.Dodgers are 24-8 in their last 32 vs. National League East. Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter

The Dodgers are tied with Arizona for the best home record in the majors (21-8) and  remain solid bets at home.  LAD have also won eight of their last 11 overall, despite of a sleepy performance yesterday when they mustered just 3 hits and no runs in a 3-0 loss to the Brewers,  and look very much like viable moneyline investment options in this spot. 

LA DODGERS are 21-4 L/25 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over dating back to last year. 

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Cardinals RH Carlos Martinez (4-4, 3.08 ERA) vs. Reds RH Asher Wojciechowski (1-0, 5.63)

Martinez has been in good form for most of this season but against Cincinnati on April 9, when he  was hammered for six runs - five earned - over five innings. In that game he was vulnerable against a lineup that looked like they had his number.  It must also be noted that  CINCINNATI is 11-1 OVER  vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season like Martinez, averaging 6.6 rpg in offensive output, with the combined score of those games clicking in at 12.8 rpg.  Martinez is also 1-3 on the road along with 4.95 ERA, where has underperformed.

Meanwhile, his pitching opponent, Wojciechowski made his first major-league start since the 2015 campaign on Tuesday and was lucky to get away with a no-decision after allowing four runs and four hits - three homers in  four innings of sub par work at Toronto. He looks like cannon fodder again vs a hungry Cards offense that has done their best work on the road this season, averaging 4.4 rpg.

The Reds offense has been their only real bright spot this season, and I'm betting they do some damage tonight, but on the flip side their pithing has been for the most part atrocious, especially in their L/7 trips to the diamonds as is evident by allowing 7.6 rpg in that span. Im expecting more of the same action tonight in a tilt that I'm betting will see both teams  combine to eclipse the total.

Over is 18-8 in Cardinals last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 13-4 in Cardinals last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 20-6-2 in Reds last 28 vs. National League Central.Over is 40-16-6 in Reds last 62 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15..Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.

CINCINNATI is 9-1 OVER L/10 after allowing 9 runs or more this season, with a combined average score o 12 rpg going on the scoreboard. CINCINNATI is 13-2 OVER  as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season, with a combined average of 11.4 rpg getting scored. CINCINNATI is 12-2 OVER  in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. .460 to .490) with a combined average of 11.3 rpg getting scored. ST LOUIS is 32-16 OVER  vs. top tier fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game.ST LOUIS is 31-12 L/45 OVER  after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better with a combined average of 10.6 rpg going on the board.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Rockies RH Jeff Hoffman (2-0, 3.29 ERA) vs. Padres RH Jarred Cosart (0-1, 4.50)

Cosart, the Padres starter owns a bloated 5.40 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill, allowing 12 hits in just under 12 innings of work, along with 10 walks. Overall, he has 16 walks in just 20 innings and obviously struggling with control. Cosart is 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA in two starts against the he Rockies. Note: Cosart has a win-less streak of 21 games. Note: The Rockies have smashed righty sarters for an average of 5,4 rpg this season while clobbering 52 HRs. Meanwhile, visiting  Colorado is countering with Hoffman (2-0, 3.29), who starts in place of Tyler Anderson, who has legs issues. He last started for the Rockies on May 22 when he stopped the  Philadelphia Phillies   for seven innings, allowing one run and three hits in winning his second straight start. He went down the minors shortly after, but manager Bud Black has been paying attention to his progress and thinks highly of the hurler. Hoffman will face a Fathers offense that is averaging just 3.1 rpg vs LHP this season via a lowly .210 BA.

The Rockies smashed the Padres yesterday b a 10-1 count, and I expect the momentum of that victory to carry them to victory again today.

Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Rockies are 11-5 in their last 16 road games.Padres are 0-5 in Cosarts last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.Padres are 16-37 in their last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Padres have lost 11 of 17 days games this season. Rockies are 16-7 in days games during this campaign.

MLB Home teams like the Padres - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are just 32-80 in the followup game, which has resulted in a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Colorado Rockies on the moneyline  1 unit reg selection 

Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (4-2, 5.21 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Zach Davies (5-3, 5.18)

Maeda the Dodgers starter  has struggled to go beyond the fifth inning this season, achieving the feat just twice in nine starts, and really struggled out of the gate collecting a 8.05 ERA in his first 4 starts before righting his ship a bit. The way he throws I keep getting the feeling of imminent implosion, and today I'm betting could easily be that day, vs  Brew Crew squad averaging 5.5 rpg at home.. Meanwhile, Davies the Brewers starter  has a 6.46 ERA in six home starts this year, is 0-1 with a 5.56 mark in two career games versus Los Angeles.Davies has not been going deep, into games this season and has completed just 6 innings twice in his L/7 starts, which is troubling for a Brewers bullpen that  face a Dodgers team that have scored 31 runs in the 9th inning this season.

The Dodgers won a 10-8 slug-fest yesterday, and according to my own projections both offenses should go back to work today, and get us over the Total.

MILWAUKEE is 18-5 OVER L/23  in home games vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better with a combined average of 10.4 rpg going on the board. MAEDA is 8-0 OVER L/8 in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse like the Brewers with a combined average of 12.4 rpg going on the scoreboard. Over is 14-2 in Maedas last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 6-0-1 in Maedas last 7 road starts.Over is 22-6 in Brewers last 28 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 8-1 in Davies' last 9 home starts.Over is 5-2-1 in  home umpire Holbrooks last 8 games behind home plate.Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings in Milwaukee.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 like the Dodgers  - strong defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season, after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game are 40-12 to the over for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Pirates RH Tyler Glasnow (2-4, 6.95 ERA) vs. Mets RH Robert Gsellman (3-3, 5.75)

These teams took part in a 12-7 slug-fest yesterday that the Pirates won, and I'm betting on more offensive fireworks again today.

Two lower trending  rookie right-handers will go head to head  Saturday when the Pirates' Tyler Glasnow (2-4, 6.95 ERA) opposes the Mets' Robert Gsellman (3-3, 5.75 ERA). Both are backed by average at best bullpens. The Pirates starter Glasnow owns a 7.45 ERA in road games this season allowing 16 ERS in just 18 innings of undesirable work. Meanwhile, GSellman has allowed 39 runs in inn 47.7 innings of sub par work, and has been lit up for 9 HRS in his 4 home starts this season. Both the Mets and Pirates have been inconsistent offensively this season, but this looks like an opportunity for both offenses to build off the momentum of yesterdays onslaught.

Over is 6-0-1 in Pirates last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 7-0-2 in Glasnows last 9 starts overall.Over is 6-0 in Gsellmans last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 7-1 in Gsellmans last 8 home starts.Over is 6-0 in Gsellmans last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.Over is 25-9-2 in the last 36 meetings in New York.

GSELLMAN is 8-0 OVER  in night games this season with a combined average of 12.1 rpg clicking in!

NY METS are 17-5 L//22 OVER  vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.40 or worse with a combined average of 11.1 rpg going on the board.NY METS are 21-6 OVER when the money line is -100 to -150 this season with a combined average of 11.3 rpg getting scored.NY METS are 17-3 OVER after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more and 11-1 OVER when 17 or more runs were scored with over 12 + runs per game getting scored.

NY METS are 20-3 OVER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season, with a combined average of 11.3 rpg going on the board. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

White Sox RH Miguel Gonzalez (4-5, 4.43 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Jordan Zimmermann (4-4, 6.47)

These teams took part in a 15-5 slugfest yesterday that Detroit won. I'm betting on more offensive fireworks here today.

 The Tigers starter today Zimmermann (4-4, 6.47 ERA)  has been average at best this season for his team. But his Achilles heel has been his generosity of allowing long balls and hits, as is evident by having given up 16 home runs along with 70 hits in 55 2/3 innings. He is backed by a bullpen that owns a bloated 5.12 ERA on the season.Meanwhile, the Pale Hose Right-handed starter Miguel Gonzalez is (3-5, 6.99 ERA on the season) . Gonzalez has a 3-5 career record against Detroit over 12 appearances and owns a ugly ERA of 7.02. 

Over is 7-1 in White Sox last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 11-4-1 in White Sox last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-0 in Gonzalezs last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 10-1-1 in Zimmermanns last 12 home starts.Over is 5-0 in Zimmermanns last 5 starts vs. American League Central.Over is 5-0 in Zimmermanns last 5 starts vs. White Sox.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.

CHI WHITE SOX are 20-9 OVER L/29 vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game on the season dating back to last season.ZIMMERMANN is 11-1 OVER  in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game with a combined average of 12.9 rpg getting scored.ZIMMERMANN is 10-1 OVER  at home when the total is 8.5 to 10  with a combined average 13 rpg scored. DETROIT  in their L/10  home games after scoring 10 runs or more have seen a combined average score of 10.3 rpg go on the board.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 White Sox/ Tigers  - good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season, after a combined score of 20 runs or more are 40-17 to the over in the followup game for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Yankees LH Jordan Montgomery (2-4, 4.11 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Joe Biagini (1-3, 3.64)

Rookie hurler Montgomery  will be making his 10th career start and first against Toronto on Saturday for the Yankees. The kids still learning the ropes at the MLB level , and despite of a losing record  has the goods to flourish going forward. As far as today goes, he will face a Blue Jays team that struggles vs LHP, as is evident by a current 3-8 record  & 1-7 run vs lefties and a long-term  12-17 L/29 record against the money line in home games against left-handed starters and have averaged just 4 rpg via a lowly .238 BA vs southpaws this season. Also another factor that plays in Montgomery's favor is his ability to limit the long ball, something the Blue Jays explosive lineup is known for.He has the lowest home run per nine innings ratio of among Yankees starters at 0.89 (five homers in 50 innings). Montgomery is also backed by a solid bullpen that has recorded a stable 2.84 ERA on the season in road games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays starter Biagini owns a 6.28 ERA in his L/3 starts, and I'm betting he  will be in trouble against a Yankees team scoring an average of 5.6 rpg vs righties this season and that scored an  8.5 rpg on artificial playing surfaces in 2 games this season and that   has also won 11 of 17 day games. 

NY YANKEES are 8-2 L/10 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.NY YANKEES are 22-11  against the money line in road games vs. a team with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better.

The Jays won yesterdays match-up, but the Zoo Crew has proven, themselves to be a solid bounce back team, as the Yankees are now 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (6-1, 2.94 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Andrew Triggs (5-4, 2.64)

Oakland  starts a  6 game homestand with right-hander Andrew Triggs (5-4, 2.64 ERA) on the hill.Triggs has been very hard on left-handed batters as is evident by allowing a  .157 BA average. The A's won four of six on their last home stand, taking three of four against Boston and must not be underestimated especially considering Nationals super star Bryce Harper wont' play because of suspension. I know the Nationals will start a top tier hurler in Strasburg, but the As have at times exploded offensively in surprising fashion this season especially at home where they have hammered 39 of their 70 homers.

Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. Nationals are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Oakland.

Play on the Oakland As to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Indians RH Josh Tomlin (3-6, 5.79 ERA) vs. Royals LH Jason Vargas (6-3, 2.39)

Tomlin the Indians starter today is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 16 innings over two starts versus the Royals this season. He is backed by a bullpen that owns a very solid 2.12 ERA on the season. Meanwhile, Vargas the Royals starter is 1-0, along with a very stingy 1.54 ERA in two starts vs the Indians this season. Vargas is backed by a bullpen that owns a 3.74 ERA at home during this campaign.  The Indians are hitting just .234 vs southpaw starters this season and scoring just 3.7 rpg. Meanwhile, KC is averaging just 3.4 rpg vs righty starters, and via a lowly ,232 BA. Considering the starting lineups, bullpens and offensive trends everything points to this being a fairly low scoring afair. 

Under is 10-2-1 in Indians last 13 during game 1 of a series.Under is 6-1-2 in Tomlins last 9 road starts.Under is 4-0 in Tomlins last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 8-1 in Vargas' last 9 starts vs. American League Central.Under is 15-2 in Vargas' last 17 starts overall.Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City.Under is 4-0 in Vargas' last 4 starts vs. Indiana. Under is 4-1-1 in Tomlins last 6 starts vs. Royals.

VARGAS is 11-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season and is is 9-1 UNDER  vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse with a combined average of 6.6 rpg getting scored. CLEVELAND is 23-13 UNDER  vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season with a combined average of just 8.1 rpg scored. CLEVELAND is 16-4 UNDER L/20 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 with a combined average of 7.6 rpg getting scored.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Giants LH Ty Blach (3-2, 3.83 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Jerad Eickhoff (0-5, 4.74)

The Phillies will send the winless Eickhoff (0-5, 4.74 ERA) to the hill. This will be his 12th start and I'm betting things don't get better today. Phillies starters are pitching horribly and  only one has gone more than six full innings since May 6. The Phillies thanks in part to this downward spiral in their pitching have lost 10 of their last 12 games in May and 21 of the past 26 overall to fall to a major-league-worst 17-34. They are in a shambles right now and fade material against just about any opponent. I know The Giants (22-33) are second worst in the NL in batting average (.228), but I feel they can light the Phillies up here. Meanwhile, the Phillies will send, Ty Blach to the hill. The southpaw has performed admirably of late and ows a  3-0 record along with a stingy 2.51 ERA in that span.

Phillies are 0-6 in Eickhoffs last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.Giants are 7-3 in their last 10 games following an off day.Giants are 15-6 in the last 21 meetings.

MLB teams like the Phillies - cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are just 13-44 in the followup game.PHILADELPHIA is 9-23 L/32 against the money line in home games after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span.

Play on SF Giants to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Red Sox LH Eduardo Rodriguez (4-1, 2.77 ERA) vs. Orioles LH Wade Miley (1-3, 3.02)

Red Sox starter tonight Rodriguez, has been in very good form this season so far, and has won three straight starts, and  has gone least six innings in seven straight starts, allowing just  11 runs while recording  a stingy 2.25 ERA during that span. He beat the Orioles 6-2   on April 23 and once again looks like a viable option to back in this spot. Meanwhile, Miley the Orioles starting hurler has lost back-to-back turns, and on the season has looked less than glorious, as he struggles with his control, giving out  12 walks in his last four outings to increase his season total to 31 in just 53 2/3 inning of sub par work.Miley was clobbered in his only career outing versus Boston, giving up six runs on eight hits in  just 1 1/3 innings in a ugly 12-2 decision on Sept. 12 of last season.It must also be noted that the BoSox have done some very good offensive work vs southpaws this season scoring an average of 5.3 rpg.

Considering the pitching matchups, and how both teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, it will not be a hard decision for to back the BoSox tonight.

Red Sox are 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts.Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 overall.Orioles are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 overall.Red Sox are 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 road starts vs. Orioles.

MILEY is 1-11 L/12 against the money line in home games against division opponents like the BoSox.BALTIMORE is 0-9  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-5, 4.28 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Carlos Martinez (3-4, 3.32)

RYU the Dodgers starter looked good in his last appearance out of the bullpen, recording a 4 inning save while allowing no runs,  and I'm betting he  can go deep enough, to allow the Dodgers' relievers who lead the National League with a 2.65 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, a 3.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 209 strikeouts to come in and successfully mop up the left overs. Ryu is 1-1 in three career outings with a 1.50 ERA. Meanwhile, the Cards starting fire baller MARTINEZ has seen his team go 2-10  against the money line when he starts vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season like the Dodgers ,losing by an average of 2,2 rpg.  Martinez is quality hurler, but goes against a  Dodgers team that has outscored opponents 149-87 this month and had the best record in the NL during May. 

ST LOUIS is 7-17 L/24  against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game .ST LOUIS is 9-18 L/27  against the money line in home games against left-handed starters and 12-24 L/36 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150. Cards are scoring just 3.5 rpg via a lowly .211 BA vs lefties this season.

 MLB teams like the Dodgers  - strong offensive team (4.7 runs/game per game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. are 61-29 dating back 5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Athletics LH Sean Manaea (3-3, 4.35 ERA) vs. Indians RH Mike Clevinger (2-1, 2.82)

Clevinger the Indians starter today vs the A's has a 6.52 ERA at home where he has generally struggled in 2 starts . His biggest issue is control, and I expect he will put some extra base runners on , which  Im expecting the A's who have jacked 69 HRS this season to take advantage of . The As have gone over in 7 of their last 8 vs. American League Central and 14-5  L/19  vs. a team with a winning record to do enough damage here today to help us eclipse the number. Meanwhile, the Indians bats have been showing some explosive spurts  over their L/10 games and now look to be in top form as is evident  by having  produced 24 runs and 38 hits in their L/3 games. Sean Manaea is a decent pitcher, but I'm betting he has his hands full vs a a team in upward momentum trend. Manaea owns a 5.59 ERA in road games this season. When he does leave this game he is backed by a struggling bullpen that owns a bloated .574 ERA on the road. 

Over is 7-3 in Indians last 10 home games.CLEVELAND is 20-8 OVER  in home games in May games over the last couple of seasons with a combined average score of 10 rpg getting scored. OAKLAND is 10-2 OVER  after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season with a combined average score of 10.3 rpg getting scored.

MLB teams like the Indians  - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA 4.50 or better), hot hitting team - batting .305 or better over their last 5 games are 32-8 over L/40 opportunities for a 80% conversion rate for over bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Phillies- Aaron Nova RH vs Marlins- Daniel Straily RH 

 Marlins starting hurler today Straily has been in good form of late, and  pitching especially well at home where he owns a 2.46 ERA. STRAILY also seems to love the sunlight as he  is 11-1  L/12  against the money line in day games. He is backed by a decent bullpen that has recorded a 3.42  ERA at home this season. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent, Nova has been sub par form so far this season, and especially of late, as is evident by a 5/00 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill,  giving up 17 hits in 18 innings of work. Nola is backed with a below average bullpen that has recorded 4.50 ERA and allowed 15 HRS in road tilts this season.

STRAILY is 11-3 L/14 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125. PHILADELPHIA is 12-26  against the money line against right-handed starters this season and are batting under the mendoza line vs orthodox pitching ( .242 BA).

Play on the Miami Marlins to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Diamondbacks RH Zack Godley (1-1, 1.99 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Chad Kuhl (1-5, 6.29)

The Pirates starting pitcher today Kuhl only lasted 4 1/3 innings Friday against the Mets, giving up five earned runs on eight hits. His 6.29 ERA  paints a story o his inconsistencies this season thus far  and I expect the DBacks who do their best offensive work against RHP (5.1 rpg) to do a fair amount of damage against him in this spot. Meanwhile, Arizona's starter Godley has been in good form so far this season,  and even though he goes against a inconsistent offense, it must be noted that , GODLEY has seen  11 of his L/13 starts go OVER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse with a combined 12.9 rpg going on the board. Over is 6-1 in Godleys last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.With that said , lets bet on a  combined total that eclipses the total.

Over is 5-1-1 in Pirates last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 9-3 in Kuhls last 12 home starts.Over is 8-3 in Godleys last 11 starts overall.Over is 7-2 in Godleys last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Over is 5-0 in umpire Cederstroms last 5 games behind home plate.

PITTSBURGH is 15-2 OVER L/17 in home games after scoring 1 run or less with a combined average of 10.5 rpg going on the scoreboard. (Arizona beat the Pirates 3-0 yesterday)

Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Astros RH Mike Fiers (1-2, 5.21 ERA) vs. Twins RH Jose Berrios (3-0, 1.66)

Astros starting hurler Fiers in his L/trip to the mound against  Detroit   gave up four runs (three earned) and 10 hits over 4 2/3 innings, and enters this game in a downward performance spiral The right handed thrower also owns a ugly 6.38 ERA in five away starts allowing 11 homers in just 24 innings and should give up enough hots and runs to the Twins to help us eclipse the number. Meanwhile, Twins starter Berrios, in limited action has done well this season, but his stuff looks very hitable, and I'm waiting for a key implosion moment. He is also just  1-1 with an 8.59 ERA and 2.32 WHIP in two career starts against the Astros. That not a good omen against a hot Astros team,    that  used an 11-run eighth-inning  to come from behind for a 16-8 win on Monday and will be looking for their  sixth straight victory, and to add to a 5.8 rpg offensive average on the road .

Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 27-11-2 in Twins last 40 vs. American League West.Over is 13-6-1 in Twins last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota.

HOUSTON is 19-6 OVER L/25 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 .MINNESOTA is 32-11 OVER  when the money line is -100 to -150 with an average of 10.9 rpg. MINNESOTA is 25-11 OVER L/36  against AL West opponents with a combined average of 10.5 rpg. 

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Athletics RH Daniel Mengden (2016: 2-9, 6.50 ERA) vs. Indians RH Carlos Carrasco (4-2, 2.93)

Cleveland's starter Carrasco got away with no-decisions while struggling in his last two starts, allowing  nine runs and 11 hits over 10 innings in a two  high scoring  8-7 victories for the Indians and in his current form looks like a thrower that could give up more runs than expected.  Meanwhile, after a sub par , season last year, As starter , Daniel Mengden,  who suffered a foot injury earlier this season, has been called up into the rotation, and remains a slightly below average hurler according to my power rankings. Look for a Cleveland team that scored  10 runs yesterday, to push forward with more offensive momentum today, and help us eclipse this number.

The Athletics are a good team to look at  for extra runs from mistakes, which can add value for over bettors on beatable lines. The As lead the majors with 49 errors after committing two on Sunday and have surrendered 35 unearned runs - five in their last game.The Athletics,  are also among the major-league leaders with 71 HRs, so runs can unexpectedly go up on the board in  a hurry and in bunches .

Over is 5-0 in Mengdens last 5 road starts.Over is 6-2 in Indians last 8 home games.Over is 22-8-1 in Carrascos last 31 home starts.Over is 10-4-1 in Carrascos last 15 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

OAKLAND is 21-10 OVER L/31 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better with a combined average of 9.7 rpg scored. 

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Diamondbacks RH Randall Delgado (1-0, 3.82 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Trevor Williams (2-3, 5.93)

Two starting throwers that are more suited for relief work than starting today go to the hill. I expect both will be lit up for more offensive action than the linesmakers might expect.  Both have done decently in recent outings, but according to my numbers/data/trends are lower tier hurlers who lack consistency. This past weekend, the DBack struggled against the Brewers , and allowed 15 runs in their L/2 games. Meanwhile, last night, the Pirates allowed 14 hits, and scored just 2 runs vs the NYM. Considering current momentum factors a combined score that eclipses this number makes for a viable  OVER wager. 

PITTSBURGH is 23-7 OVER   in home games after scoring 2 runs or less dating back to last season, with a combined average of 9.9 rpg getting scored. 

Over is 9-1-1 in Delgados last 11 road starts.Over is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 overall.Over is 4-1-2 in Pirates last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh.

MLB Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 like Arizona  - allowing 4 or less runs/game on the season (NL), after allowing 8 runs or more are 34-10 to the over dating back 5 seasons. 

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