With LHP pitcher James Paxton healthy the Bosox are a dangerous side.Paxton  goes for his    fourth consecutive top tier start when  he takes to the hill in the opener of a four-game series against the Minnesota Twins on Monday night in Minneapolis. Paxton (2-1, 3.09 ERA) allowed just one unearned run in six innings in his most recent outing and Im betting  continues his upward momentum.Paxton has made six starts against the Twins in his career and is 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA and gets the nod today on. a value line. Quote:"We feel really confident whenever Paxton is taking the bump right now," Red Sox outfielder Rob Refsnyder said. "He's got pretty special stuff, as you see. A high 90s fastball, kind of just bearing in. He gives us ace-caliber stuff." End Quote.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win 

Todays pitching matchup features St. Louis right-hander Jack Flaherty (3-5, 4.64 ERA) against Washington right-hander Josiah Gray (4-5, 3.19). These pitchers according to my power rankings are pretty evenly matched and both batting orders are also fairly even in most of key data points. Thus the line does not match what my own numbers suggest should be near even, with the subsequent home field advantage giving us an edge with the underdog.

Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.

Play on the Nationals to win 

Lynn, is in. a big time funk as is evident by having allowed 17 earned runs over his last three starts spanning  (14 innings), and overall has have a very disappointing start to his season. He is getting hit hard ,ranking in the 31st percentile in hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Mariners starter Bryce Miller is projected to have a decent game here vs a  White Sox offense that ranks 24th in baseball in runs per game scored.

Mariners are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Lynn..

White Sox are 7-18 in their last 25 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like Miller. White Sox are 6-20 in their last 26 during game 3 of a series.

Play on Seattle to win

Guardians are 1-8 in their last 9 inter-league road games and  are 0-7 in their last 7 inter-league games vs. a right-handed starter including  0-6 in their last 6 inter-league road games vs. a right-handed starter. ( Arizona  starter Davies is a RHP) Meanwhile, the 

Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last 6 inter-league games  are 5-0 in their last 5 inter-league games vs. a right-handed starter like the Guardians Bibee. .Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last 6 inter-league games vs. a team with a losing record.Diamondbacks are also 10-1 in their last 11 vs. American League Central.

Guardians are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Arizona and nothing changes today. 

Play on Arizona to win 

Sunday’s Wrigley Field weather forecast estimates an average of 8 mph winds blowing from right to left in Chicago. With that kind of wind city action.Im betting the pitchers have the advantage over the hitters, and a game Im projecting to stay under the set total. 

Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 inter-league home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Os Kremer.. Under is 7-3 in Cubs last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5

Under is 8-0 in Orioles last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like the Cubs Taillon. Under is 7-1 in Orioles last 8 inter-league road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.

Play UNDER

  Padres starter Blake Snell continues to be a hard luck pitcher, and despite of pitching decently ,  has lost five of his last seven starts. Meanwhile, the  Rays are 10-2 when Eflin starts this season, and the Padres are just 3-10 when Snell takes goes to the mound. Advantage Rays. 

Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter like Snell. Rays are also 22-6 in their last 28 games vs. a left-handed starter. 

Rays are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Diego.Rays are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.

Play on the Tampa Bay Rays to win 

Cincinnati starter Greene,   is 1-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 38 strikeouts over his past four starts and 24 1/3 innings and is a viable underdog pitcher to back in this spot play in Houston today. It must be noted that the Astros have dropped seven of 10 games since they were last 12 games over .500, and in their current form are fade material. Meanwhile, the Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 overall and are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter like Houstons starter Bielak.

Reds are 46-19 in the last 65 meetings.Reds are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Houston.

Cincinnati Reds to win 

White Sox starter  Giolito has pitched well lately and over  his last 13 innings of work, has only surrendered one run on a solo homer and Im betting on his momentum carrying into this tilt vs the Mariners.Note: Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter like White Sox starter Giolito. 

White Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 during game 2 of a series.White Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.

White Sox are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Play on the White Sox to win 

Miami's starter Garrett is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA over his last six starts, with 41 strikeouts and seven walks in 32 innings. The Marlins have won five of those games and Im betting he helps them to the promised land again. Meanwhile, the Marlins , go against Nats starter  Irvin. The rookie has allowed eight runs (seven earned) over nine innings in his last two trips to the hill while garnering a  8.41 ERA over his last five starts. He has skipped a start to give him some rest, but the rust Im betting beats the rest here and for the Marlins hitters to roll up on the young man.Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.Marlins are 10-3 in their last 13 overall.Marlins are 10-3 in their last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter like Irvin.

Marlins are 28-11 in their last 39 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 road games.

Marlins are 21-6 in the last 27 meetings and 10-2 L/12 in Washington. 

Play on Miami to win 

, Dunning is 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA with 13 walks to 25 strikeouts as a starter this season and gives his team a good chance at victory in the 2nd game of this series vs the Blue Jays. Texas lost yesterdays tilt so you can bet they will be primed to bounce back. Note: Despite of winning 2-1 yesterday the Jays only managed three hits.Rangers are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series.Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Play on Texas to win 

Red Sox starting pitchers have allowed two earned runs or fewer in 19 of the past 26 games and Im betting BoSox starter Houck will carry on with this current tradition of top tier starting pitching into this tilt against the Yankees. Houck is 2-2 with a 2.41 ERA in 33 2/3 innings over 10 appearances (five starts) in his career against the Yankees and has pitched at least five innings in 10 of his 12 starts this season. Meanwhile, the NYY will start Domingo German (4-3, 3.49)  . He is off pitching six innings of one-run ball Saturday in what was the Yankees' lone win of the last Boston series. in 13 games (11 starts) against the Red Sox, German is 3-2  along with a stable 3.64 ERA. Note: German has worked at least six innings in his last three trips to the hill while allowing two or fewer runs in six of his last seven. Advantage to the under. 

Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 vs. American League East.Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

GERMAN is 22-9 UNDER  when working on 5 or 6 days rest in his career . (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored. 

NY YANKEES are 43-25 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. 

Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 vs. American League East.

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (NY YANKEES) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base are 54-19 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play on the 
UNDER 

Both these sides have shown sub par offensive performance charts this season, while their pitching , defense and bullpens are of the top tier variety. Everything points to this type of data inputing into this tilt and for the combined score to stay on the low side of the offered total. 

Under is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 vs. National League West.Under is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 interleague games. Under is 31-13-1 in Guardians last 45 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 23-10 in Guardians last 33 games vs. a right-handed starter like the Padres Weathers .Under is 34-15-2 in Guardians last 51 overall. Under is 13-3 in Guardians last 16 during game 3 of a series.

CLEVELAND is 19-9 UNDER vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored in those 28 games.

Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter like the Guardians Allen. Under is 11-3 in Padres last 14 during game 3 of a series.

SAN DIEGO is 8-0 UNDER after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season with a combined average of 5.6 rpg scored. SAN DIEGO is 8-1 UNDER in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored. SAN DIEGO is 13-3 UNDER  at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season with a combined average of 6 rpg scored. 

MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season are 32-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (SAN DIEGO/ CLEVELAND) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (46 to 49%), playing on Thursday are 104-48 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego.

Play under 

WASHINGTON is 5-0  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80% over the last 3 season like Houstons starter Javier.WASHINGTON is 11-5 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. JAVIER is 0-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 17.17 and a WHIP of 2.997. 

 I know the Astros are playing for the sweep here, but the Nats have an uncanny way of coming to life vs top tier pitching, and offer value on this moneyline offering in a spot play situation. 

Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter like Javier.

HOUSTON is 6-10 against the money line in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Nationals are 12-3 in the last 15 meetings in Houston.

Play on Washington to win 

Phillies right hander Nola (5-5, 4.60 ERA) gave up a season-high six runs in a 9-0 loss to the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday and has been highly inconsistent this season and is fade material here, despite of having a potent offense backing him. Meanwhile, Arizona behind quality starting and bullpen pitching and top tier D, must not be underestimated in the dog role at home today.NOLA is 10-20  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) NOLA is 2-9  against the money line against NL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) ARIZONA is 28-16 against the money line against right-handed starters this season. NOLA is 1-2 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 8.41 and a WHIP of 1.672.

PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

Play on Arizona to win 

The Rays after a very fast start to their season, are suffering some regression entering this game, as is evident by having lost 3 of their L/4 including the first two games of this series against a Oakland As side that has now won 7 straight, and on a proverbial opposite trajectory to their opponents after a disturbing start to their current campaign. The As have momentum on thier sides, and it seems all aspects of their game pitching/hitting are all in high gear at this time which Im betting gives us value on this runline offering. 

Rays are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the As Medina .Rays are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. American League West.

TAMPA BAY is 10-17 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Oakland to cover +1.5 runline 

Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 inter-league road games.Reds are 7-2 in their last 9 inter-league games vs. a left-handed starter like the Royals starter Lynch and are currently in top form and deserve respect here as short favs. Note: Reds have won their L/4 road games. 

Meanwhile, KC has lost 8 straight and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation manifesting itself again. 

KANSAS CITY is 9-33  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. KANSAS CITY is 9-30 against the money line in night games this season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (KANSAS CITY) - starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings against opponent starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 11-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Reds are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Kansas City.

Play on Reds to win 

Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 overall and deserve respect here as underdogs in this current form. 

Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West.

Meanwhile, the Rangers after a fast start to their current campaign, have looked sub par of late as is evident by  losing 5 of their L/ 6 overall and are fade material in this current form.Previous to yesterday game the Rangers in. a 7 game span were hitting just .235 as a team, and Im betting they have not bottomed out yet. 

TEXAS is 0-6  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 20% over the last 2 seasons like Detmers. TEXAS is 40-51 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL), averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game on the season are 33- 48 L/5 seasons. 

Angels are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

Play on LA Angels to win 

Philadelphia right-hander Zack Wheeler (4-4, 3.91 ERA) will start on Tuesday.

ARIZONA is 16-6  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season like the Phillies starter Wheeler.  Note: Wheeler is supported by a bullpen with a 5.25 ERA, and the Dbacks are the kind of team that can make shoddy bullpens pay a high price in later innings. 

Meanwhile, the Dbacks send  Right-hander Zach Davies (1-1, 4.68 ERA) to the hill. He took down the Washington Nationals in his most recent outing when he gave up two runs, five hits and one walk in 6 2/3 innings while striking out  eight in a quality start and has upward momentum entering this tilt. Considering Arizona has won 6 straight they look like viable underdog selections here vs what is a over rated Phillies side, that is just 13-22 on the road this season. Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Diamondbacks are 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Diamondbacks are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.Diamondbacks are 16-5 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter.Diamondbacks are 21-7 in their last 28 overall.

PHILADELPHIA is 2-11  against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

Oakland has won 6 straight games and with momentum on their sides look very much like viable underdogs here tonight at home vs TB left-hander Jalen Beeks  (2-3, 6.12) who is 0-1 with an 18.00 ERA in three appearances this month, all in relief.  By the way this a As group playing with a chip on their shoulders, as the pundits smash them on a regular basis for being so darn bad. Well the Bad news As get the nod again on a value line.

Play on the Oakland As to win

Cubs starter  Jameson Taillon (1-4, 7.02 ERA) on the season and  is 0-2 with an 8.27 ERA in four home starts and in his current form is fade material. After opening 11-6, Chicago is 17-31 and has averaged 2.5 runs in the last 13 contest and no way shape or form deserve to favs , even here at home in Wrigley at this time . 

PITTSBURGH is 16-6 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.PITTSBURGH is 10-4  against the money line against division opponents this season.

MLB Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or more  over his last 5 starts, cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 5 games are 43-67 L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pirates to win 

Marlins left-hander Jesus Luzardo (5-4, 3.79 ERA) is expected to start against Mariners rookie righty Bryce Miller (3-3. 4.46) on Monday night.

Luzardo, who is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA in five career appearances (two starts) against the Mariners, and is off a quality start last time out  against Kansas City. He allowed one run on two hits in seven innings of top tier work, with no walks and eight strikeouts, in a 6-1 win. With momentum on his side, against a Seattle offense in a funk he gives his team the edge Miamis starter LUZARDO is also 8-0  against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)

MIAMI is 12-2 (against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season.MIAMI is 14-3  against the money line in an inter-league game this season.MIAMI is 13-2  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. 

SEATTLE is 8-13  against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. SEATTLE is 18-26  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season

MLB team (MIAMI) - where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who was rocked for 6+ runs in his last 2 outings are 29-10 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to win

Im betting the Rockies will catch the Red Sox in an emotional letdown spot after a come from behind victory last night in extra innings against arch rivals the NYY. BOSTON is 1-8  against the money line in home games in an inter-league game this season. Both these hurlers Seabold and Paxton have pitched decently of late and both have seen their L/2 trips to the mound decided by 1 run and with that said, I expect a closer game than the line might indicate. Since we are getting +1.5 runs here on plus money, Im feeling confident about the viability of this wager. 

Red Sox are 1-10 in their last 11 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter like Seabold. 

Play on Colorado on the +1.5 runline 

Right-hander Brayan Bello (3-4, 3.97 ERA)takes a three-game losing streak Sunday night against the NY Yankees and Im betting his streak will continue on the negative side.Bostons starter BELLO is 0-8  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Bello lost both of his starts against the Yankees in 2022 He allowed three unearned runs in five innings of a 5-3 loss at Boston on Sept. 14 and allowed an earned run in six innings of a rain-shortened 2-0 loss in New York on Sept. 25 and seems to be one of those pitchers that lacks run support from his offense on a consistent basis and is fade material. 

Yankees are 40-14 in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Yankees are 13-6 in their last 19 during game 3 of a series.Yankees are 54-25 in their last 79 vs. a team with a losing record.Yankees are 61-29 in their last 90 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

BOSTON is 41-68  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons.

Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League East.Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 Sunday games.

Play on the NY Yankees to win 

Bostons Bello is 0-3 with a respectable 3.18 ERA in his L/3 starts and is consistently seeing a lack of run support.Bello has allowed three runs or less in his past eight outings.Bello lost both of his starts against the Yankees in 2022 but he  allowed  just three unearned runs in five innings of a 5-3 loss at Boston on Sept. 14 and allowed an earned run in six innings of a rain-shortened 2-0 loss in New York on Sept. 25. Meanwhile, Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt (2-6, 4.96), who despite of being winless in his past three starts,   owns a  2.16 ERA during that span and also suffers from run support.Schmidt last pitched in Tuesday's 3-2 home defeat to the Chicago White Sox when he allowed three runs and six hits in six innings . The righty has also allowed just 1 homer, in his L/5 starts which makes him a viable candidate to keep the Red Sox offense at bay. Considering both hurlers lack of run support and viable pitching abilities it becomes obvious to me a lower scoring game that fails to eclipse this number makes for a viable wagering opportunity. 

SCHMIDT is 9-1 UNDER vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record ) with a combined average of 5.8 rpg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 vs. American League East.Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 Sunday games.Under is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 overall.Under is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 on grass.Under is 9-3 in Red Sox last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 11-4 in Red Sox last 15 road games.Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 overall.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 during game 3 of a series.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 on grass.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games following a win.

Play under

Rangers starting pitcher PEREZ is 22-7  against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) PEREZ is 8-1 against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) PEREZ is 10-1 against the money line in road games after giving up no earned runs last outing in his career. (Team's Record) Perez won both of his starts vs. the Rays last season-  pitching seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts in a 3-0 home win on May 31, and then allowed three runs on nine hits with three strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in a 4-3 road victory on Sept. 16.

TEXAS is 9-2  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season like the Rays starter Mcclanahan. The Rays hurler is a top tier pitcher, but the Rangers have annihilated LHP this season averaging 7.2 rpg via a .294 BA. Rangers are also 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

TEXAS is 13-4  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season this season. 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL), averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game on the season are 15-28 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas to win 

The Blue Jays' scheduled starter is right-hander Kevin Gausman (5-3, 2.63). In 10 career starts against Minnesota, he is 1-4 with a 5.88 ERA,  After losing the first two games of this series, the consensus is that Toronto will bounce back here, but Im going the other way in true contrarian fashion. It must be noted that the Twins have won 12 of their past 15 games in Toronto and are being disrespected here on this line. I know Gausman had a tremendous outing last time out against Houston recording 13 SO in a victory, but now Im betting on immediate regression in an emotional and physical letdown situation. 

GAUSMAN is 3-7  against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) GAUSMAN is 12-21  against the money line against AL Central opponents in his career. (Team's Record)

SCHNEIDER is 17-23 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better as the manager of TORONTO.

Play on Minnesota to win 

In the series finale, New York right-hander Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.94 ERA) is scheduled to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller (7-2, 3.60 ERA). The pitching advantage goes to the Pirates and their bullpen is stable enough to clean things up when need be. I know Keller has been roughed up in his l/2 starts but hes a viable pitcher and a bounce back is a favorable option. Meanwhile, Corrasco seems to be on the downside of his career as his SO ratio is way down this season, (10% below his career average). 

PITTSBURGH is 17-4  against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. 

Pirates are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Pirates are 5-2 in their last 7 home games.Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 overall.

NY METS are 2-11  against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.

Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. National League Central.Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Mets are 1-7 in their last 8 overall.

Play on Pittsburgh to win

Boston has lost 8 of their L/11 and look to be adding to that negative column tonight against Yankees starter German who has seen his team win his L/3 starts. Meanwhile Boston's Tanner Houck (3-5, 5.46 ERA) will  bring a  seven-game winless skid into Saturdays action. Im betting his current negative run continues even though he will not have to face the injured Aaron Judge. 

Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.Red Sox are 15-36 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Yankees are 40-13 in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

MLB  teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games are 172-114 L/26 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NYY to win 

The Astros right-hander J.P. France (1-1, 3.44 ERA) goes to the hill on Saturday. The  rookie received a no-decision after allowing three hits over seven innings of one-run ball against the Los Angeles Angels this past Sunday. He had a no-hitter for the first 5 1/3 innings of that tilt and enters this game with momentum making the Astros a viable underdog.France owns a  29-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first six career starts spanning 34 innings and is a under rated hurler at his time.HOUSTON is 40-26 (against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.

Cleveland has won three straight, while Houston has dropped a season-high four consecutive games, but it will be the desperation of a hard working Houston group that will the difference maker tonight.

CLEVELAND is 16-23 against the money line in night games this season.

Play on the Astros to win 

Astros starting hurler France owns a  29-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first six career starts covering 34 innings and will Im betting make life difficult on the Cleveland Guardians batting order. Cleveland will fire back with right-hander Triston McKenzie (0-0, 0.00), who is  off a successful  season debut. He returned after being out with a   major muscle strain and allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out 10 over five scoreless innings against the Minnesota Twins on Sunday. He still not 100% but his bullpen should at least help keep the Astros bats to minimal production as compared to out expectations. After yesterdays 10-9 victory by the Guardians in extra innings Im betting on immediate offensive regression. 

Under is 10-1 in Astros last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Under is 9-4 in Astros last 13 during game 2 of a series.Under is 11-5 in Astros last 16 road games.

Under is 25-8-1 in Guardians last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 20-7 in Guardians last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 22-8 in Guardians last 30 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 29-11-1 in Guardians last 41 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 5-2 in Guardians last 7 Saturday games.Under is 43-18-1 in Guardians last 62 vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 7.1 rpg. 

Play under 

San Diego beat Colorado 9-6 on Friday in the opener of a three-game series at Denver, but that has not been a good omen in the past for the Fathers as they have lost 5 of 6 after a victory. 

Padres starter WEATHERS is 0-7  against the money line when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)COLORADO is 9-3  against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season like Weathers. Weathers is 0-1 with a 9.69 ERA in his four career appearances (three starts) against the Rockies, all of which came in his rookie year of 2021. More pain to come here today is my bet.

The Rockies stater FREELAND is 34-16   against the money line with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) since 1997. (Team's Record) FREELAND is 41-23  against the money line in day games in his career. (Team's Record) note: Freeland, who will face the Padres for the second time this season threw six scoreless innings in the second game of the season to get the victory. 

Play on Colorado to win

SAN DIEGO is 3-11 against the money line on the road when the total is 11 or higher over the last 3 seasons.Padres are 17-35 in their last 52 road games with the total set at 11 or higher.Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series.

Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series.

Cubs starter Stroman is on a tear right now winning his L/3 games while posting a minuscule  0.78 ERA. In his current form he gives the Cubbies a strong chance of victory tonight in SF. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 15-35 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like Stroman whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons.

Giants are 17-45 in their last 62 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.

Cubs are 20-8 in their last 28 during game 1 of a series.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win 

Houstons offense has done their best work vs lLHP this season as is evident by averaging 5.5 rpg on a .276 BA and and should one again fair well vs Cleveland's  southpaw hurler Allen. Also my pitcher vs power rankings suggest Christian Javier the Astros starter has the edge here, as is evident by a solid 2.84 overall ERA and a recent 1.59 ERA in his L/3 starts all victories. Both sides, have solid bullpens, but the difference maker comes on offense, where Cleveland owns a ugly .233 BA at home where they average just 3.1 rpg. 

Guardians are 3-7 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.

 HOUSTON is 30-15  against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons like Allen. Astros are 40-11 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter like Allen. Astros are 36-17 in their last 53 road games.Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Twins have lost 5 straight and are fade material in their current form. 

MINNESOTA is 4-16 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.

Jays lefty starter KIKUCHI is 17-9  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Minnesota has struggled against LHP this season averaging just 3.5 rpg via a nasty looking .224 BA and are a disadvantage tonight that has won 7 of their L/8 games overall while allowing 2 runs or less in 6 of those tilts. 

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70) -AL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 8-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Toronto to win 

Angels left-hander Reid Detmers (0-5, 5.15 ERA) will make his 11th start of the season on Thursday and is fade material in his current form. I know he has a decent bullpen behind him, but he is the type of hurler that can implode and put his team in the hole quickly. DETMERS is 7-16 ( against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 inter-league games vs. a left-handed starter.

Meanwhile, Cubs   left-hander Drew Smyly (5-3, 3.56 ERA) goes to the hill for the Cubs. SMYLY is 49-33 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 in his career. (Team's Record)

SMYLY is 21-13 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

LA ANGELS are 1-13 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons like Smyly. 

Note:Angels outfielder Hunter Renfroe will miss this game as he is off with  paternity leave.

Cubs are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.Cubs are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

Cubs to win 

Chase Anderson owns a stingy 1.72 ERA at home in Coors Field this season, and is a viable underdog hurler to back here today . Meanwhile, Giants starting pitcher COBB is 2-8   against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-18  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last 2 seasons like the Rockies starter Anderson. 
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-25 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better over the last 2 seasons like the Rockies starter Anderson. 

 Giants are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. National League West.Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Rockies are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on Colorado to win 

The Dodgers pitching staff is not as strong it has been in recent seasons, and their starter today Noah Syndergaard has not looked as dominating as he did in the past as is evident by his 6.45 ERA and a 9.90 road ERA in 20 innings of sub par work. With that said, their is to much value here to pass up fading Syndergaard in his current form. Note: Dodgers bullpen owns a bloated 5.73 road ERA. 

CINCINNATI is 21-7 L/28 against the money line at home when the total is 11 or higher. 

LA DODGERS are 11-19  against the money line vs. good base-running teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game over the last 3 seasons.Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win 

The Rays go with a  bullpen game on Monday led by Shawn Armstrong. However,  with that said my data and power rankings suggest not only is the Twins starting  pitcher Lopez under rated but their bullpen has also proven to be of the top tier variety early on this season as is evident by a solid  3.45 overall ERA. Lopez has won his L/2 starts vs Cleveland and Toronto and gets my support here on a value line.Twins are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.Rays are 2-7 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series.Twins are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the Minnesota Twins to win 

Seattles starter GILBERT is 15-4  against the money line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) GILBERT is 9-1) against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). GILBERT is 19-7 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Padres are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like the Seattles starter Gilbert. Im betting Gilbert has a decent night, vs a    Padres squad that has the seventh-lowest scoring offense in the majors, averaging 4.10 runs per game while rankings) 21st in OPS+ 96. 

I know the Mariners are not much better, but it must be noted the Padres starter Musgrove,  is just  3-10  against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse in his career. (Team's Record)SEATTLE is 25-10  against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons. 

Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League West.Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Mariners are 7-2 in their last 9 games following an off day.Mariners are 12-4 in their last 16 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.

SAN DIEGO is 6-12  against the money line in home games in night games this season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a bad team (38-46%) are 37-13 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Mariners 

I know both these offenses have been less than consistent this season, but my pitcher vs power rankings suggest this Totals line offers value for over bettors based on my projections that suggest runs output to be closer to  8.3 . Seattles starting pitcher GILBERT is 15-4 OVER  in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.9 rpg scored. 

Padres starting right handed  hurler  MUSGROVE is 16-6 OVER  at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.6 rpg scored. 

Over is 21-6 in Mariners last 27 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter like Musgrove.

SEATTLE is 16-4 OVER  vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored.

SEATTLE is 21-9 OVER after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.3 rpg scored. 

Over is 15-5-1 in Padres last 21 vs. American League West.Over is 33-15-3 in Padres last 51 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.

MLB Road teams (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100   or better over his last 10 games are 37-8 OVER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored. 

Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in San Diego.

Play over

The Red Sox will send left-hander fire baller James Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA) to the hill in the series opener. He allowed one run and struck out eight over five innings in a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds last week. Paxton had pitched a total of 21 2/3 innings in his  previous three seasons due to a number of injuries, but looks now to be back in top form and health. He has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his first four outings this season, while recording 27 strikeouts in 19 innings and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well against the light hitting guardians.BOSTON is 18-4  against the money line vs. sub standard power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons.

Note:Cleveland starting right-hander Shane Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA), enters this game in a bit of a funk after allowing seven runs over four innings against the Baltimore Orioles last week.Bieber has  recorded a  3-3 record along with a bloated 5.50 ERA in six career tilts  (five starts) vs. BoSox and is fade material here today.The Red Sox offense rank  top-eight  against right-handed pitching.

Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League Central.Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games following an off day.

Guardians are 1-11 in their last 12 Tuesday games.

Red Sox are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win 

Rangers starter Martin Perez has pitched his best baseball at home this season garnering. a 1. 93 ERA in 18.7 innings of work and my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest he matches up well here vs the Cards and should once again have. a stable outing . Under is 11-4 in Cardinals last 15 inter-league road games vs. a left-handed starter like Perez.Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 inter-league games.Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 road games. On the flip-side ,  I know former cy Young award candidate Wainwright (2-1, 6.15 ERA) has yet to complete six innings, and his ERA is nearly double his career mark of 3.41, but hes to talented not see upward momentum, and must be respected to keep the explosive Rangers bats at bay. 

Under is 5-2 in Rangers last 7 overall.

ST LOUIS is 28-15 UNDER  after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored in this 33 tilts. 

ST LOUIS is 20-9 UNDER  in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.5 rpg. 

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season are 40-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for. a 82% conversion rate. 

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Texas.Under is 7-0-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Play under 

The Cardinals will be facing Texas left-hander Martin Perez (6-1, 4.43) and despite of not pitching at home in over a month showed he enjoyed being on the hill at home going 3-0 along with a stingy 1.93 ERA. Im betting on home cooking being favorable to him again and for the Rangers to bring home the cash.PEREZ is 15-3  against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)PEREZ is 21-7  against the money line in June games in his career (Team's Record)

Cardinals are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. American League West.Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. 

 Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter like Wainwright.Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Wainwright.Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Rangers are 20-7 in their last 27 overall.

Cardinals are 1-8 in the last 9 meetings.Cardinals are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Texas.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win 

NYY starter German is in good form so far this season, garnering a 3-3 record along with a 3.98 ERA in 10 starts. He’s struck out 53 in 54.1 innings . His 0.98 WHIP is of the top tier variety and he must be respected here in LA on a vleu line  tonight .GERMAN is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.167. I know Miller the young Dodgers right handed  hurler, has been strong since coming up from the minors because of rotational  injuries, going  2-0 along with a  1.64 ERA in his first two MLB starts, however, Im betting  regression is imminent against an explosive veteran Yankees lineup that could easily make this kid look mortal. Note: Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. 

Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games.Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 road games.

Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.

MLB Road teams (NY YANKEES) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games are 34-15 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NYY to win 

The Jays won the first two games of this low scoring series , but Im betting their vaunted but recently struggling offense will have problems today dealing with the ghost forkball  a pitch used by Mets right-hander Kodai Senga (5-3, 3.44 ERA) . The pitch has accounted for 39 of the 70 strikeouts Senga has in 10 starts this season, according to information provided by the Mets. 

NY METS are 36-19  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. SHOWALTER is 29-13 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 as the manager of NY METS. TORONTO is 11-18 against the money line after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons. 

NY METS are 45-33  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.

Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 5-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY METS) - after scoring and allowing 4 runs or less last 3 games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less are 37-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NY Mets to win 

Rays right-hander Taj Bradley (3-2, 3.60 ERA) will start against the team he opposed in his MLB debut on April 12. He struck out eight in five innings of three-run ball, helping the Rays in their four-game series sweep and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation to manifest itself here today in Fenway. 

Rays are 13-5 in their last 18 during game 3 of a series.Rays are 39-15 in their last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like BoSox Starter Houck. 

TAMPA BAY is 37-13  against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Rays are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Play on Tampa Bay to win

Yankees starter COLE is 10-0  against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. (Team's Record)COLE is 16-3  against the money line in road games in June games in his career. (Team's Record)Cole (6-0, 2.93 ERA) has not lost a game this season in 12 starts and gets the nod again. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will replay with  M. Grove (0-1, 8.44 ERA) has been out since April 21 with a strained right groin and fade material until he can get himself back in a regular rotational groove. Note:Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter and are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Yankees are 12-4 in their last 16 interleague games.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) are 15-41 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rare for bettors. 

Play on NYY to win 

On Saturday, St. Louis left-hander Jordan Montgomery (2-6, 4.48 ERA) and Pittsburgh right-hander Luis L. Ortiz (1-2, 4.35) are expected to start.

Montgomery is tied for the team lead with five quality starts but is 0-6 with a 5.03 ERA over his past nine starts and Im betting his luck will continue to be bad here today vs a under rated Pittsburgh side off a win vs the Cards yesterday and playing at home. 

Cards  lefty starter MONTGOMERY is 0-6   against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)MONTGOMERY is 1-9  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 2-9   against the money line in the first half of the season this season. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 2-7   against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Pirates are 9-4 in their last 13 games vs. a left-handed starter.

PITTSBURGH is 14-4  against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.

ST LOUIS is 7-12   against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.MARMOL is 6-17  against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) as the manager of ST LOUIS.

Play on Pittsburgh to win

After an extremely fast start to their season the Rays have finally cooled off as is evident by losing 8 of their L/11 games. Im betting on that regression to continue here today in Fenway vs a Red Sox team averaging 6 rpg at home this season. It must be noted the Boston's starting pitchers have allowed four or fewer earned runs in 12 of the past 14 games . Rays are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Bos sox starter Whitlock. 

BOSTON is 9-2  against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East.

TAMPA BAY is 8-19  against the money line in road games in June games over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - AL team with a high slugging percentage (.440 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or worse), cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 3 games and are 11-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate. 

Play on Boston to win 

Kremer went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in five May starts, not allowing more than three runs in any of them and gives his team a very good chance at pulling off an underdog win here vs the Giants and their top tier starter Logan Webb tonight. Orioles starter KREMER is 8-0 against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)KREMER is 15-1 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)KREMER is 9-2 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

BALTIMORE is 12-2   against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

SAN FRANCISCO is 17-22  against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 43-19 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orioles to win 

LA dodgers starter Kershaw (6-4, 3.32 ERA) will make his fifth career start against the Yankees. He does not have a win against them  despite of a  1.67 ERA over 27 innings. Im betting he does not stay in tune with his previous efforts, as this version of the Yanks batting order own a .870 OPS against Kershaw in 140 plate appearances, With the Yanks sending right-hander Luis Severino (0-0, 1.59), to the hill for his third start of the season after a lat injury Im betting the Yanks have an edge on a value money line offering. 

Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (NY YANKEES) - allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 26-11 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NYY to win 

Right-hander Shohei Ohtani (5-1, 2.91 ERA) is the scheduled starter for the Angels on Friday. He leads the majors in opponent batting average (.155), ranks second in WHIP (0.95) and fourth in strikeouts (90) and offers value as an underdog vs a defending World Series Champion side that does not look as potent as it has in recent seasons. The Angels after a out control event yesterday, that saw Manager Nevin ejected fro arguing balls and strikes will be primed to for a bounce-back effort after losing 5-2 yesterday. Motivation factor will be key for a Halos victory. HOUSTON is 2-8  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like Astros starter Valdez. 

Play on the LAA to win

We have two viable pitchers starting for each team (Gray vs Wheeler), but both bullpens are substandard as is their defenses. Its also going to be a hitters environment tonight as the wind is blowing out to center field with   temps   expected in the high 80s. With that said, Im betting this is value Totals offering that needs to be taken advantage of. 

Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Over is 19-6-2 in the last 27 meetings.Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Washington.

MLB Home teams (WASHINGTON) - averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after a game they hit 4 or more home runs are 39-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Pittsburghs starter CONTRERAS is 10-4  against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CONTRERAS is 9-1  against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Cardinals are 7-20 in their last 27 during game 1 of a series.

Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.Pirates are 11-4 in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after a win by 4 runs or more are 14-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Advantage Pittsburgh Pirates ( play to win)

The Guardians will start Tanner Bibee (1-1, 2.88 ERA) on Thursday giving the Guardians a good chance of cashing here as underdogs. Bibee will be opposed by right-hander Pablo Lopez (3-3, 4.11), a hurler that my power rankings suggest the Guardians batting order matches up well against. Note: The Twins are also in an emotional letdown spot after taking 2 of 3 from the defending World Series Champs the Houston Astros. Im betting a motivated group of Guardians that are now 3.5 games behind the Twins will be primed to claw out a win here in this spot play situation. Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win and are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series. 

MLB Home teams (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA 4.20) (AL), after 2 straight games with no home runs are 13-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Guardians are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota.Guardians are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.

Play on the Guardians to win 

The Diamondbacks will send Zach Davies (0-1, 5.68 ERA) to the hill to face the Rockies this afternoon. I know the Rockies won the first 3 games of this 4 game series but Im betting they don't get the sweep. This will be Davies 2nd start since coming of the injured list, and he still does not look 100% and is  vulnerable .  In four starts vs. Colorado last year, Davies had no decisions and a 4.05 ERA and looked average at best. Also veteran Charlie Blackmon returns from a stint on the bereavement list, and should boost the Rockies sometimes doormat offense giving us an edge with a value based dog. COLORADO is 12-6 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.

Play on Colorado to win 

Neither the Jays or the Brewers have been playing top tier baseball of late. But the one thing that stands out about the Jays sub par performances is a sudden lack of offense more often than one would expect with this type of lineup. For example in yesterdays 4-2 loss the the Brewers the Jays went 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position. With that said, Im betting on the Brewers to win this game in what is a coin flip event. The price does not match the situation or data thus giving us value with the underdog. 

Jays  righty starter GAUSMAN is 3-8   against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  GAUSMAN is 1-7   against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 inter-league games vs. a right-handed starter.

MILWAUKEE is 20-7 against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Brewers are 20-8 in their last 28 inter-league games vs. a team with a winning record. Brewers are 12-5 in their last 17 inter-league road games.

The Blue Jays have lost each of their last seven games as home favorites after playing the previous day.

Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Brewers starter  Peralta. Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 home games.

Play on the Brewers 

The Yankees are up-trending in top form as is evident by their  5-0 record  in their last 5 vs. American League  including a  6-0 record  in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Seattles starterKirby .Yankees are also 6-0 in their last 6 road games and they get the nod again vs a Seattle side that is  3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last 4 vs. American League East.SEATTLE is 7-12  against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or better over his last 10 games are 39-58. L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Yankees to win 

Cubs starter Steele started fast this season in top form but has regressed lately going   1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his last four trips to the hill. Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter like Steele. Rays are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Meanwhile, the  CHICAGO CUBS are 14-24  against the money line against right-handed starters like Eflin this season.TAMPA BAY is 35-12 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. 

EFLIN is 2-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.326.

STEELE is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 13.48 and a WHIP of 2.247.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) are 15-40 L/5 seasons for a  go against 73% conversion rate.

Play on the Tampa Bay Rays to win 

Texas starter Dunning has pitched well this season so far but is do for regression. Note: DUNNING is 0-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 5.78 and a WHIP of 1.125.DUNNING is 2-12  against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 2-14  against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 1-10  against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 0-7  against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Advantage Motown.

 MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 20% are 25-9 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on Detroit Tigers to win 

The Braves  behind  top tier pitcher Elder (3-0, 2.01 ERA) look like viable bets here tonight on the run-line vs a downtrodden As side. The right-hander's ERA ranks third among all qualified major league pitchers. Oakland ended an 11-game losing streak with a 7-2 victory on Monday, giving the A's just their 11th win this season and sixth at home.  Im betting on them having immediate regression here today and for the Braves to be primed for a big win in redemption mode. Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 inter-league road games vs. a team with a losing record. 

OAKLAND is 1-19 SU vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with the average run per game diff clicking in at +4 which easily qualifies on this run line offering.OAKLAND is 8-41  SU vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.7. 

Play on Atlanta Braves -1.5 to win 

Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes (4-2, 5.30 ERA) is scheduled to start Tuesday against Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert (3-2, 3.60). My power rankings suggest the Yanks have the edge here. Note:Gilbert is 1-1 with a 7.16 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees. 

GILBERT is 2-8 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.

Mariners are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. American League East. SEATTLE is 12-19 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. 

Yankees are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings.Yankees are 36-16 in the last 52 meetings in Seattle.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (SEATTLE) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after allowing 10 runs or more are 11-25 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Yankees to win 

The Reds are expected to start right-hander Ben Lively (2-2, 2.65 ERA) on Tuesday night . It must be noted that the Bosox are below .500 vs ( 15-19 )against right-handed starters this season.

 Jays starter Kikuchi is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his past three starts. He started this  season off fast but now he is fade material in his current form. KIKUCHI is 3-8   against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Recor

Meanwhile, the Brewers are expected to start right-hander Adrian Houser (1-0, 2.25) who according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well vs a Jays side that is 4-10 L/14 overall. It must be noted Houser has pitched much better against right handed hitters than southpaw batters in his career, and considering the amount of righty hitting stars in the Jays lineup that is a good omen for us backing the Brewers on value line in this matchup.  

MILWAUKEE is 19-6  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 28-13 against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. COUNSELL is 25-13   against the money line against AL East opponents as the manager of MILWAUKEE.

MLBRoad underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts are 26-13 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to win 

Right-hander Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.82 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Twins and gives the Twins a strong opportunity to notch a victory at a value price. He leads the majors in ERA, adjusted ERA-plus (236) and fielding independent pitching (2.02), and has yet to give up a home run in  54 1/3 innings  of quality work this season. His opponent, Rookie right-hander J.P. France (1-1, 3.43 ERA) has looked  very viable at times but according to my power rankings this is a bad matchup for him. 

Houston is also set for major regression today after a season-high seven home runs the   in their 10-1 road win over the Oakland Athletics on Sunday. Note: HOUSTON is 3-10 (-13.7 Units) against the money line after a game they hit 4 or more home runs over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 1-7  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

Play on Minnesota to win

Right-hander Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.82 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Twins and gives the Twins a strong opportunity to notch another top notch effort. He leads the majors in ERA, adjusted ERA-plus (236) and fielding independent pitching (2.02), and has yet to give up a home run in  54 1/3 innings  of quality work this season. His opponent, Rookie right-hander J.P. France (1-1, 3.43 ERA) has looked  very viable at times and will also help keep this score to the low side of the offered total. Both these bullpens have also been in good form this season and deserve respect to pick up where the starters left off.

Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 vs. American League Central.Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning recordUnder is 16-5 in Astros last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter like Gray. 

Under is 20-8 in Astros last 28 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 9-4-1 in Astros last 14 home games.

 MINNESOTA is 18-6 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored.Under is 32-15-5 in Twins last 52 vs. American League West.Under is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 during game 1 of a series.

Under is 11-5-2 in the last 18 meetings.

Play on the under

Detroit will send left-hander Matthew Boyd to  the hill vs the Rangers. Boyd (3-3, 5.74) has a win and a no-decision in his last two starts but hasn't gone deep in those games and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well here vs a Rangers side that has hit lefties hard this season as is evident by averaging 7.7 rpg via a 290 BA. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi has overpowered opposing offenses in his last five starts. Eovaldi is coming off a complete-game victory at Pittsburgh 6 days ago. He held the Pirates to one run on six hits and one walk while striking out five and throwing 104 pitches. In three of his previous four starts before the above mentioned top tier effort vs the  Pirates, Eovaldi (6-2, 2.60 ERA) held his opposition scoreless and lasted at least eight innings. Overall during the five-game span , the veteran righty has allowed four runs and 22 hits while garnering  35 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings of lightning work. Advantage on the hill goes to Texas. 

Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

TEXAS is 21-8 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season.

Tigers are 20-41 in their last 61 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Tigers are 51-111 in their last 162 vs. American League West.

MLB team (TEXAS) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA 5.70 to 6.20)-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 29-3 L/26 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas to win 

Right-hander Dylan Covey (0-0, 3.00 ERA), acquired on waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 20, will get his first start with the Phillies against Atlanta. Im betting the Braves light him up and put a heaping helping amount of runs on the board that will help us get over this total. Meanwhile, the Braves will send fire baller Strider to the hill. We love heavy fastball pitchers but he has  lost his past two decisions and allowed four runs in each of his two previous starts. In his most recent outing on Tuesday against the Dodgers, Strider pitched six innings and allowed four runs (two earned) on five hits, three walks and 11 strikeouts and Im also betting the Phillies sold offense should do some damage tonight,ATLANTA is 27-16 OVER  vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season with a combined average of 9.2 rpg going on the board.ATLANTA is 11-1 OVER   after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season with a combined average of 12.1 rpg scored.ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER  as a home favorite of -150 or more this season with a combined average of 9.7 rpg scored. 

Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 during game 4 of a series.Over is 12-4-1 in Phillies last 17 vs. National League East.Over is 7-3-3 in Phillies last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

Right-hander Dylan Covey (0-0, 3.00 ERA), acquired on waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 20, will get his first start with the Phillies against Atlanta. Im betting the Braves light him up and put a heaping helping amount of runs on the board that will help us get over this total. Meanwhile, the Braves will send fire baller Strider to the hill. We love heavy fastball pitchers but he has  lost his past two decisions and allowed four runs in each of his two previous starts. In his most recent outing on Tuesday against the Dodgers, Strider pitched six innings and allowed four runs (two earned) on five hits, three walks and 11 strikeouts and Im also betting the Phillies sold offense should do some damage tonight,ATLANTA is 27-16 OVER  vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season with a combined average of 9.2 rpg going on the board.ATLANTA is 11-1 OVER   after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season with a combined average of 12.1 rpg scored.ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER  as a home favorite of -150 or more this season with a combined average of 9.7 rpg scored. 

Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 during game 4 of a series.Over is 12-4-1 in Phillies last 17 vs. National League East.Over is 7-3-3 in Phillies last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.Play over

Cincinnati starter Ashcraft is 0-3 with a 12.98 ERA in his last four outings and  0-4 with an 11.88 ERA in four career starts against the Cubs and is fade material here once again in Chicago today. Meanwhile, the Cubs will send left-hander Drew Smyly (5-1, 2.93) to the hill . The Cubs hurler, has allowed two or fewer runs in nine straight starts, posting a 2.13 ERA during that stretch and deserves respect here as a favorite. SMYLY is 31-18 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse in his career. (Team's Record) SMYLY is 15-4  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Reds are 9-24 in their last 33 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Reds are 2-6 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.MLB Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or worse over his last 5 starts are 27-9 L/5 seasons for  a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cubs to win 

NYY starter Cole (5-0, 2.53 ERA) is on a run of six straight no-decisions,  since winning five of his first six trips to the hill. Of late , he has looked ordinary at best as is evident by a  4.67 ERA including allowing  six HRs in 27 innings of mediocre work and as a result the NYY are being over rated today. Meanwhile, the The Padres will start Yu Darvish (3-3, 3.67), who owns a  3-1 record along  with a 1.64 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees, and is a viable underdog selection that is backed by a solid bullpen and viable enough offense to find the win column. 

Padres are 18-8 in their last 26 inter-league road games vs. a right-handed starter like the NYY starter Cole. 

Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Padres starter Darvish..Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.

Play on San Diego to win 

Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw (6-4, 2.98 ERA) takes to the mound after being away from the club a few days due to personal reasons and Im betting the veteran is now rested and fresh enough to give the Rays batting order all they can handle. 

KERSHAW is 4-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 0.846.

KERSHAW is 93-34against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record). KERSHAW is 150-55 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in his career. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile, the  Rays will reply with starter who Glasnow has been sidelined by injuries. Im betting he will take some time to get back to viability giving the Dodgers an edge.  Glasnow doesn't have much history facing the Dodgers. In four innings, all in relief, he has allowed six runs, leading to an bloated 13.50 ERA.

Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 inter-league games vs. a team with a winning record.Dodgers are 16-5 in their last 21 inter-league road games vs. a right-handed starter.Dodgers are 72-24 in their last 96 during game 2 of a series.

Rays are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - very good AL offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games are 8-31 L/26 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win

 Pirates right-hander Vince Velasquez (4-3, 3.06 ERA) is expected to be activated from the injured list to face Seattle ace Luis Castillo (3-2, 2.97). Velasquez iw fresh but rusty after the lay off and Im betting the Mariners tag him for some offensive production early. Meanwhile , Castillo according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest the Pirates matchup well here, and more runs than anticipated by the pundits and lines-makers should easily help up get an over wager to cash here. 

PITTSBURGH is 15-4 OVER  after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons. 

Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 25-10-1 in Pirates last 36 vs. American League West.

Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter like Velesquez.

Over is 9-4 in Mariners last 13 during game 2 of a series.

MLB  team (SEATTLE) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL are 31-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on the over 

Right-hander Michael Wacha (5-1, 3.58 ERA) will start Saturday for the Padres. He has allowed one run over his past four starts and is 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA in those appearances and Im betting on another strong effort today in NY.  Meanwhile, the Yanks will respond with Right-hander Luis Severino (0-0, 1.93) who will make his second start since returning from a right lat strain that cost him nearly two months to begin the season. Severino fell one out shy of qualifying for the win in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon when he allowed one run on four hits and struck out five in 4 2/3 innings. Severino is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA in 16 career inter-league appearances (14 starts). Im expecting Severino   to be stronger here of the extended lay off. . With that said, im betting on a pitchers duel and bullpen relief that help keep this score on the low side of the total. 

Under is 6-0 in Padres last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 6-0 in Padres last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-0 in Padres last 6 interleague road games.Under is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 vs. American League East.Under is 10-1 in Padres last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 8-1-1 in Padres last 10 during game 2 of a series.Under is 14-2-1 in Padres last 17 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.

SAN DIEGO is 15-2 UNDER\ when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season with  combined average of 7.3 rpg scored.SAN DIEGO is 9-1 UNDER in an inter-league game this season with a combined average of 6.8 rpg scored. 

NY YANKEES are 10-2 UNDER  in home games after a loss this season with a combined average of 6.4 rpg scored.

Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague games.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 vs. National League West.

Play under

Scherzer has not pitched well in his career at Coors Field. In six career appearances in the Mile High city the veteran has gone  0-3 along  with a bloated  6.39 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP and is fade material on a value line. 

Mets are 4-11 in their last 15 road games. NY METS are 1-8  against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.NY METS are 3-8  against the money line in road games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.

Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.COLORADO is 61-49  against the money line in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams (NY METS) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less ) against a sub par starting pitcher (ERA 6.20 or higher ) -NL, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are 13-34 L/26 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Colorado to win 

I like the Royals today as they had the day off and their bullpen should be fresh and able to support Lyles if he gets in trouble. The Royals also got to rest at home during this extended home stand and will be ready to play.  Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Washington starter CORBIN is 4-19  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Royals starter LYLES is 12-7  against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter like KC starter Lyles. WASHINGTON is also 1-10 L/11 against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.40 or worse  

Nationals are 6-13 in their last 19 inter-league games. 

Play on the KC Royals to win

Joe Musgrove (1-2, 6.75 ERA), , goes to the ill for the Padres. My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest the Yanks matchup well against him and haver an edge playing at home .Meanwhile, the Yanks will start international signee Randy Vasquez  who makes  his major league debut, he is being called up from the minors because of Germans suspension for using foreign material on balls. I actually betting this is more a bullpen pitching affair for the Yankees and Vasquez will be closely monitored and allowed to go til he gets in trouble. Bottom line the Padres despite of beating up on the lowly Nats in this last series, have not played consistent baseball this season and are being over rated in this tilt vs a the Yankees.

Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 inter-league games vs. a team with a losing record.Yankees are 10-1 in their last 11 inter-league games vs. a right-handed starter.

Yankees are 58-27 in their last 85 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Yankees are 73-35 in their last 108 home games.

Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.SAN DIEGO is 7-13   against the money line in May games this season.

Padres are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in New York.

Play on NYY to win 

.

Padres southpaw  starter SNELL is 4-11   against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SNELL is 1-8  against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record) SNELL is 1-14  against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The Nationals have done their best work against lefties this season garnering 5.1 rpg via a .289 BA and deserve respect here as home underdogs in this spot play. 

Meanwhile, the Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Nats starting hurler Irvin. 

Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 road games. Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.

Play on the Washington Nationals to win 

Todays pitching matchup features:  Toronto's Alek Manoah (1-4, 5.15 ERA) opposite  Tampa Bay's Zach Eflin (6-1, 3.45) in a duel of right-handers.

Jays starter MANOAH is 9-15   against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Rays are 124-51 in their last 175 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Manoah and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings is fade material here vs the Rays . 

Rays starter EFLIN is 24-7  against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 in his career. (Team's Record) Elfin has looked good this season, and shown great consistency with his breaking stuff, and deserves respect here as a favorite. 

Blue Jays are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. American League East. Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. 

TAMPA BAY is 22-5  against the money line in home games this seasonTAMPA BAY is 55-28 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. Rays are 9-4 in their last 13 during game 4 of a series.

Blue Jays are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Play on the Rays to win 

The Cardinals, have dropped two of the first three in the series and Im betting against them here again today as their starter Mikolas makes his 17th career appearance  and 15th start  against the  Cincinnati Reds . The Cards righty hurler  has just one victory in his last 12 appearances against the Reds, recording a  0-3 record along  with a bloated 7.94 ERA in his last six starts in Cincinnati and is fade material here this afternoon, 

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less  hitters each of his last 2 outings are 31-16 L/26 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.( Reds Starter Weaver qualifies) 

CINCINNATI is 21-7 against the money line at home when the total is 11 or higher since 1997.

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win 

Tyler Wells (3-1, 2.94 ERA), who is the major league leader in WHIP (0.79) and opponents' batting average (.168, second), will start for the Orioles on Wednesday. Im betting he keeps the explosive Yankees bats at bay. Meanwhile, Nestor Cortes (4-2, 5.21 ERA) will  be on the hill for the Yanks . The southpaw allowed two runs on five hits in six innings at Toronto on Thursday and is finally starting to uptrend in my power rankings after a slow start to this season. Cortes 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts) against Baltimore and Im betting he continues his upward momentum tonight in what will be some cool night time temps that favor the pitchers. 

CORTES is 19-8 UNDER  when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) 

BALTIMORE is 24-12 UNDER  as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.

Under is 5-2 in Orioles last 7 vs. American League East.Under is 8-3-2 in Orioles last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on the UNDER

Baltimore's starter. Wells is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his past six starts, but has not had any luck facing the NYY as his 0-4 record along with a 4.68 ERA would indicate.

Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter like Wells.

Meanwhile, Cortes the Yanks expected stater who is off a strong effort last time out for a win has momentum entering this tilt vs a Orioles side that he has had success against as is evident by a    4-0  record along with a 1.37 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts). 

BOONE is 106-42  against the money line in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games as the manager of NY YANKEES

Orioles are 16-35 in the last 51 meetings in New York.

Play on the NYY to win 

Alcantara is a top tier hurler, but this season for some reason hes giving up plenty of hard contact and alot of line drives which is never a good omen when especially here in the Coors Field launching pad.  The line is just to off, according to Alcantara's current form. 

Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. 

Marlins are 1-11 in their last 12 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on Colorado

Cards lefty  starter MATZ is 0-6  against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record) CINCINNATI is 8-0  against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season. Cincinnati has clobbered LH pitchers this season averaging 5.3 rpg game via a .274 BA and are being under rated tonight. Cardinals are 20-41 in their last 61 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like the Reds Starter Lively. 

ST LOUIS is 3-9  against the money line when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win 

Houser is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two career appearances, including one start, against the Astros, allowing one earned run in 6 1/3 innings. He is according to my pitcher power rankings and under rated hurler. Houser is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two career appearances, including one start, against the Astros, allowing one earned run in 6 1/3 innings and get the nod here vs a Houston side expected to be without Jose Altuve .

Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 inter-league home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Astros Bielak. Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 inter-league home games.Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Play on the Brewers to win 

Gallen is the superior pitcher in this matchup vs the Phillies Suarez, but the Phillies have the superior bullpen and a more explosive offense. SUAREZ is 12-5 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SUAREZ is 11-6   against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

THOMSON is 15-6   against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better as the manager of PHILADELPHIA like the Dbacks Gallen. 

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - average hitting team (AVG  .255 to .269) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games are 33-17 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Phillies to win. 

I cant see how the Rangers are road favs here. There is not that much of a difference in the pitching matchup according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter like the Rangers Perez. Also the Pirates have the superior bullpen and deserve respect here as underdogs. PITTSBURGH is 23-12  against the money line vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

TEXAS is 20-40 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.

Rangers are 4-10 in their last 14 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.

MLB Home teams (PITTSBURGH) - with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 92-76 L/5 seasons. 

Rangers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the Pirates to win 

Alex Cobb  and Sonny Gray are average at best pitchers but have performed very well out of the gate. Based on early season performance charts the total seems right, but after delving in deeper, and highlighting these two hurlers career averages a regression looks to be inevitable. 

MINNESOTA is 50-30 OVER  vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.7 runs per game scored over that 80 game sample size. Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Over is 6-2 in Giants last 8 interleague road games.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.

MLB team (MINNESOTA) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less ), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL are 30-10 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the over

Chicago has been struggling but with  starter Drew Smyly (4-1, 2.86 ERA) on the hill they have a strong opportunity for success in this tilt vs the Mets. The lefty allowed a run on four hits and SO eight in six innings at Houston on Wednesday, but the Cubs choked on  a  6-1 lead and eventually lost by a  7-6 count . The Cubbies southpaw,  has allowed just  three runs over 12 innings of his last two starts, and  is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA in four career starts against the  New York Mets and get the nod vs a inconsistent Mets offense. SMYLY is 33-19  against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in his career. (Team's Record)

Note: Senga the Mets starter  is 1-1 along with a 7.98 ERA, with opponents batting .323 on the road this season.

Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter. NY METS are 1-6  against the money line in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season

Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Mets are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.Mets are 20-41 in the last 61 meetings in Chicago.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win 

Veteran hurler Adam Wainwright no longer seems imposing and very much looks to be on the downside of his career, as his velocity has dropped significantly. With that said, my pitcher vs betting order power rankings also suggest we have an edge . 

Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.ST LOUIS is 11-21 against the money line in night games this season.

Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.

Cincinnati Reds to win 

These offenses are explosive to say the least . When looking at the pitching matchup of Berrios and Bradley some powerful trends pop up. BERRIOS is 9-0 OVER  in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)  with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. BERRIOS is 16-4 OVER (+11.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored. It must also be noted Berrios  owns divergent numbers at home (3.74 xFIP) and road (4.58 xFIP) during his career, and once again is vulnerable in the Rays backyard where they have 5.8 rpg this season. Meanwhile, Bradley the Rays starter has not pitched all that well at home this season where he has garnered a 5.40 ERA and against a Blue Jays side that averages 4.8 rpg on the road this season looks like cannon fodder for a strong offense. Over is 8-1 in Blue Jays last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Bradley.

Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Play on the over

The Rangers lost to the Pirates yesterday, but have proven resilient in the past as is evident by going  5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.

Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter like Hill and matchup well here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Note: The Rangers own a top-three offense against both righties and southpaws this season.

Meanwhile, Pirates are 26-59 in their last 85 interleague games and are 17-39 in their last 56 during game 2 of a series.

The Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter like Eovaldi who owns a 5-2 recored on the season including a solid .283 ERA and a 3-1 record and a stingy 1.83 ERA on the road.

Everything points to a conclusive Rangers win in game 2 of this series.

MLB team (TEXAS) - very good AL offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a decent NL starter (ERA 3.70 to 4.20), with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last 3 games are 26-8 L/seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas Rangers to win

The Braves sill have some issues Im betting against rookie Gavin Stone, who will make his second MLB start after an impressive spring including Triple-A action. It must be noted that Gavin Stone garnered 24 swinging strikes while generating a season high 10 strikeouts for OKC. With a fastball that averaged 94.4 - t96.3 Braves hitters could end up taking time to figure this kid out. Meanwhile the LA DODGERS are 28-9  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like Morton whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons .MORTON is 1-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.396. Advantage Dodgers on the money-line 

Dodgers are 60-24 in their last 84 during game 1 of a series.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win 

Rays are 27-12 in their last 39 games vs. a right-handed starter like Jays starter  Bassitt. Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Rays are 39-12 in their last 51 home games.Rays are 23-8 in their last 31 during game 1 of a series. TAMPA BAY is 15-2   against the money line vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game this season.

Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter like the Rays Kelley.Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. American League East.Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 games on astroturf. TORONTO is 0-6 (against the money line after 6 or more consecutive home games this season.

Blue Jays are 18-37 in the last 55 meetings in Tampa Bay. 

MLB Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - team with an excellent SLG (.450 or better ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 30-9 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 17-42 L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rays to win 

Ortiz has not looked great from a data standpoint early on this season, but this young Pirates starter has above average stuff, and must be respected here on a value line. Meanwhile, the Rangers Dunning is a capable mid rotation pitcher, but not at this level of favoritism, making the Pirates a viable underdog. DUNNING is 4-21 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 0-14  against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 2-13  against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Rangers are 2-5 in their last 7 inter-league games vs. a right-handed starter like Ortiz.Rangers are 3-9 in their last 12 inter-league road games vs. a team with a winning record.Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 inter-league road games.

MLB Road teams (TEXAS) - hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 5 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games are 13-32 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

Rangers are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings.

Pittsburgh Pirates to win 

A pair of former Cy Young Award winners go to the hill tonight as the Guardians' Shane Bieber (3-2, 3.20 ERA) and the Mets' Justin Verlander (1-2, 4.76 ERA) do battle. Both hurlers have looked average at best, making this number offered by the books vulnerable .With the Cleveland bullpen struggling of late and the Mets bullpen having struggled for most of this season, it will be an easy decision to take an over stance .  My projections make this total closer to 8 giving us value on the over cashing.Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.

Play on the over

 Cubs starter Justin Steele  after a fast start to his season is finally starting look human.

Steele in his last   outing allowed a  season-high five runs on four in the fourth inning -- and five hits in barely getting through six innings of Chicago's 7-3 loss at Houston on Tuesday. Today against the sometimes explosive bats of the Phillies Im betting Steel will be humbled again. Thanks to Chicagos 4.9 rpg game offensive output on the road this season, Im also betting the Cubbies dont go down without a fight in a game I have pegged as an over result. 

Cubs are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.

Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.Over is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 games following a loss.Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 during game 3 of a series.Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-0 in Cubs last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-0 in Cubs last 8 road games.Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. .Over is 11-1 in Cubs last 12 overall.

MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (PHILADELPHIA) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.00 or better ) (NL), after a win by 4 runs or more are 48-15 OVER L/26 seasons with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. 

Play over

The Tigers won the opener 8-6 on Friday night and once again look like viable bets with momentum on their sides and now going against a very inconsistent Nats hurler Left-hander Patrick Corbin (2-5, 4.65 ERA) . He had a good outing last time out, but has shown very little ability to stay hot for very long over the last few seasons and is fade material in this spot play opportunity.  

Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter like Motowns  starter Faedo. 

Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.

.DETROIT is 6-1  against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. DETROIT is 11-3 against the money line in an inter-league game this season. Tigers have won 3 of their L/4 games.

Play on the Detroit Tigers to win 

 Based on my power rankings projections this total should be closer to 10 thus giving us value with an over wager.

Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 inter-league games vs. a left-handed starter like the Nats Corbin.

Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 inter-league games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 inter-league road games.Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 inter-league games.Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.DETROIT is 12-2 OVER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season.Over is 21-8-3 in Tigers last 32 vs. a team with a losing record.

Over is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 inter-league home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-3 in Nationals last 11 vs. American League Central.

Over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

Play over

Colorados starter FREELAND is 26-13  against the money line after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings. When hes running hot the Rockies are viable bets . To much value to pass up on here in this spot play. In three career starts vs. the Rangers, Freeland is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA. I know Texas starter Texas starter Jon Gray (3-1, 3.15 ERA) has pitched well , but the Rockies batting order according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings match up well here.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (COLORADO) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts are 26-12 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado to win