After missing nearly three weeks, Taillon has thrown a combined 10 1/3 innings over his past three starts, recording a 9.58 ERA  and once again looks to be cannon fodder for the Phillies sometimes explosive bats.  Taillon has made five career starts against the Phillies, garnering a  1-2 record along  with a bloated  6.86 ERA. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola (3-3, 4.53 ERA) is scheduled to take to the hill for  the Phillies. Nola is 4-2 with a 4.74 ERA in seven starts in his career against the Cubs.NOLA is 19-6 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. Everything points to this total being eclipsed. 

Over is 6-0 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 road games.Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 10-1 in Cubs last 11 overall.

CHICAGO CUBS are 8-0 OVER  in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 12.5 rpg scored. 

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 10 games are 35-10 L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.

Play over

Keller (5-1, 2.38 ERA) will face Diamondbacks rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (0-1, 8.59) on Saturday.

ARIZONA is 12-46  against the money line in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 3 seasons like the Pirates Keller. 

 Pirates starter Keller in his L/3 starts has garnered a minuscule 0.43 ERA and 0.714 WHIP. Keller has already matched his win total from last season. He has not given up a home run over his past five starts. He is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in four home outings.and gets the nod here. 

PITTSBURGH is 10-3  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, good team, winning 54-62% or more of their games on the season are 38-75 L/6 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Pittsburgh to win 

Jays starting right-hander Alek Manoah (1-4, 5.40 ERA) is winless in his past seven starts, and has garnered a bloated  7.98 ERA in three starts this month. Meanwhile, Baltimore sends  right-hander Grayson Rodriguez (2-1, 6.57 ERA)  to the hill to start against the Blue Jays . He is 1-1 and has recorded a ugly  11.37 ERA this month. Everything points to these sometimes explosive offenses teeing off today and for this total to be eclipsed.

Over is 10-4 in Blue Jays last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter like the Orioles starter Rodriguez. 

Over is 8-3 in Blue Jays last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Over is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 vs. American League East.

Over is 33-16-7 in the last 56 meetings.Over is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings in Toronto.Over is 7-3 in Orioles last 10 road games.Over is 12-4-1 in Orioles last 17 on astroturf.

MLB  teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (BALTIMORE) - after 4 straight games where they committed no errors, in May games are 38-16 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over

Miami starter Alcantara reigning NL Cy Young Award winner has yet to win on the road this season, going 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA. With the Giants,,  offense in high gear as was evident  during a three-game home sweep over the Philadelphia Phillies to start the week, totaling 17 runs in the victories Im betting that momentum carries on into this tilt against the Marlins. This is also an interesting anomaly or trend:  ALCANTARA is 1-12   against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

The Giants  offense ranks top 7 against righties like Alcantara. 

SFO starter DESCLAFANI is 22-9   against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)SAN FRANCISCO is 21-9   against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the SF Giants to win 

The Red Sox starter Paxton is throwing heaters at a very high velocity right now ( 96.3 mpg on average) which is his highest since 2019. Whatever he is doing-  the veteran  is successfully turning back the clock and must be respected here on the road as an underdog. Note: Paxton in three career starts against the Padres, owns a  1-1 record along with a 1.98 ERA, a 1.527 WHIP and a .241 opponents' batting average.

Padres starter SNELL is 1-7  against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record) SNELL is 1-13  against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record

key trend:The Padres are struggling to hit in the clutch, possessing a majors-worst .196 average with runners in scoring position, while the Red Sox's .294 average in those situations ranks second behind the Texas Rangers' .331 mark.

SAN DIEGO is 0-8 against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season.

Play on Boston Red Sox to win 

Veteran right-hander Zack Greinke (1-4, 5.01),  is coming of a strong outing last time out ,as  he allowed two runs on three hits in five innings against the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday, striking out five without issuing a walk. He actually looked close to the pitcher who was hard to beat in his prime and gets my backing here on a value line. 

Meanwhile, Kopech is preparing to make his first start against Kansas City this season after going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in three trips to the hill against them last season and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well here. 

Pale Hose staeter KOPECH is 0-6   against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

CHI WHITE SOX are 9-21  against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game this season.

MLB Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season, after 2 straight one run wins are 38-17 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on KC Royals to win

Seattles starter Bryce Miller is absolute fire. His fastball is of the top tier variety and Im betting the Braves will have a hard time catching up with the flame throwers over powering stuff. He has the lowest WHIP (0.421) in any pitcher's first three career starts in MLB history.

I know Elder has looked really good for the Braves, but this line according to my projections offers great value as the pitching matchup is being undervalued in relation to the dog. 

SEATTLE is 41-32  against the money line in road games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons.SEATTLE is 94-68 ( against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.SEATTLE is 12-2 against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Seattle to win 

Mets right-hander Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 8.56 ERA), is expected to come off the injured list to pitch against his former team for the first time. The veteran hurler  hasn't pitched for New York since April 15 due to right elbow inflammation and Im betting his rust despite of some minor league rehab will not help his situation. Note:Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 inter-league road games vs. a right-handed starter like Carrasco.Guardians are 13-3 in their last 16 inter-league road games.Guardians are 25-9 in their last 34 inter-league road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets did get a win yesterday bit that has not been a omen for success so far this season as is evident by  a 1-7 record in their last 8 games following a victory.

QUANTRILL is 7-1  against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

CLEVELAND is 7-1against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 11-2 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in road games in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons

NY METS are 3-9  against the money line vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season

MLB team (NY METS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better), starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest are just 13-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Guardians to win

Cards starter Wainwright is now said to be healthy after injuring himself during training for the World Baseball Classic. This will be his 3rd start off a lay off and now Im betting like the thoroughbred he is will be ready to pitch at a high standard. 
Cards starter WAINWRIGHT is 36-11   against the money line in home games against NL West opponents in his career. (Team's Record) Wainwright is 7-6 with a 2.79 ERA in 19 career appearances against the Dodgers, including 16 starts.

Meanwhile,  the Cardinals are 41-18 in their last 59 games vs. a left-handed starter like Urias.

St.Louis to win 

Its not an ideal night for baseball in Bostons Fenway as temps are expected to be  around 50 degrees all night with , with 12 mph winds blowing in from left field. Pitchers have an advantage in this weather conditions.

Seattles starter GONZALES is 17-4 UNDER  in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7 rpg scored.  GONZALES is 21-8 UNDER  in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored.

Under is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the BoSox starter Bello. 

Home plate umpire Mike Estabrook has seen 55% of his career gigs go under the total, a notorious pitchers leaning official.

Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series.

MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher (BOSTON/SEATTLE) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 54%), in May games are 48-14 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under 

The Red Sox hit southpaws well, and are  33-18   against the money line against left-handed starters  like the Mariners starter Gonzales over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 28-10  against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, Brian Bello the Bosox starter has pitched well of late garnering a 2-0 record along with a solid 2.81 ERA in his L/3 starts with his team winning all 3 games . Advantage Boston. 

Red Sox are 15-2 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

Mariners are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings.

Play on the Red Sox to win 

Reds starter Ashcraft owns a   53.7%  career ground-ball rate while allowing just 0.91 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) which is important here in the launching pad known as Coors Field.  Meanwhile, the  Rockies will send  left-hander Austin Gomber (3-4, 6.30), to the hill . 

The pitching  advantage goes to the Reds. 

The  Reds Starter ASHCRAFT is 8-3   against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) ASHCRAFT is 11-5 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Rockies are 7-22 in their last 29 vs. a team with a losing record.

Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on Cincinnati to win 

Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been in top form this season and his D, has played extremely well behind him. In 8 starts this season the lefty has garnered a 1.57 ERA and very much gives his team an edge in this tilt vs a Pirates side is 1-16 ( against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better over the last 2 seasons. PITTSBURGH is also an ugly 7-44 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 3 seasons.

MLB team (DETROIT) - bad AL offensive team (4.2  or less runs/game) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are 27-9 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Tigers to win 

Brandon Williamson will make his MLB debut in the launching pad known as Coors Field and Im betting it wont be a pretty start to his big league career. Hes got a great arm but has control issues, none of which have been worked out during his minor league career. Not a good omen for him here in this type of ball park. Williamson went 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Louisville this season. The Rockies have done their best offensive work vs lefties this season averaging 5.4 rpg. 

Meanwhile, the Rockies will respond with Anderson who will face his former team in his first start of the season.  ( The Reds have an extensive scouting report on Anderson)  

COLORADO is 21-10 OVER  as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 12.9 rpg scored. 

Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higherOver is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings in Colorado.

Play on the over

Seattle won  Monday's series opener, racking up 15 hits in a 10-1 victory and Im betting the hits and runs will keep on coming this Tuesday night as they face the very inconsistent BosSox starter N. Pivetta who owns a 8.40 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill.

PIVETTA in his L/6 after getting rocked for 7 or more runs last outing has seen a combined score of 13.3 rpg scored. ( In his latest appearance, on May 9 at Atlanta,  he allowed seven runs on eight hits in four innings)

Meanwhile, Boston despite of some sluggish offense efforts of late are more than capable of a bounce back game here vs a Seattle pitcher in Castillo. Note: The Red Sox are ranked near the top in MLB vs righties like Castillo averaging 5.4 rpg on a .273 BA. BOSTON is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.

.BOSTON is 16-7 OVER  in home games this season with a combined average of 11.3 rpg scored. 

Play over

The Mets are battered and beaten and tired after a long road trip and may take some time to get used to home cooking which is not a good omen against an explosive Tampa Bay side that deserve alot of respect. I know Verlander is a top tier pitcher , but the Rays are currently MLB top offensive side and have equally smashed lefties and righties with astonishing fire power. 

The Mets were outscored 64-39 over the previous 13 games.. New York starting pitchers have pitched more than five innings just twice during that span and are fade material in this current form no matter who's on the hill for them. 

TAMPA BAY is 16-2  against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

NY METS are 2-8  against the money line vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. NY METS are 0-6  against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season which was the case last time out.

MLB Home teams (NY METS) - after 4 straight games with no home runs, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs are 42-72 L/26 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to win

 Gausman the Jays starter is a durable top tier pitcher, but the Yankees bats can make the best of hurlers look sub standard. GAUSMAN is 1-5  against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile, German the Yankees starter , must also not be underestimated as is evident by garnering  a stingy 1.89 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill. 

Considering the pitching matchup and the viable offenses its obvious to me that the line is bloated as compared to the true odds giving us value with the dangerous underdog. 

TORONTO is 12-19 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons. 

 .Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. American League East.

Yankees are 77-35 in their last 112 during game 2 of a series.Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 overall.

MLB Road teams (NY YANKEES) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games are 127-83 L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate.

Play on the NY Yankees

Padres starter WACHA is 4-11   against the money line in home games in an inter-league game in his career. (Team's Record)

Royals righty starter Keller according to my power rankings is a pitcher that is very under rated and must be respected here on this bloated underdog line. He has recorded a 2-0 record and  .2.91 road ERA this season, and gets the nod on a value line. Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 overall.

SAN DIEGO is 6-12  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - bad AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing are 39-17 L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Royals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego.

Play on the Royals to win 

Taillon will make his third start since returning from the 15-day injured list on May 4. He looked a little rusty so far, but now should find himself in a groove here vs a lineup that he matches up well against according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. TAILLON is 16-2  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile,  Left-hander Framber Valdez (3-4, 2.38 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Astros today . With the Astros offense not looking as powerful as it has the last few seasons, he has not been getting sufficient run or bullpen support as is evident by his stingy ERA but sub par record. VALDEZ is 0-5  against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. (Team's Record) Considering the Cubbies have done their best work against southpaws this season averaging 6 rpg it is an easy decision to fafe the Astros in this matchup. 

HOUSTON is 6-10 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHICAGO CUBS) - average NL hitting team (AVG  .255 to .269) against an excellent AL starting pitcher (ERA 3.20 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 23-11 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB team (CHICAGO CUBS) - average NL hitting team (AVG  .255 to .269) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less ), with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 36-17 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cubs to win 

My power rankings suggest the BoSox offense matchup well vs the Mariners starter Kirby. BOSTON is 9-1 OVER vs. a starting pitcher like Kirby with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season with a combined 12.3 rpg scored. BOSTON is 18-6 OVER  against right-handed starters this season with a combined 11.6 rpg scored. Kirby is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in two career starts against the Red Sox, allowing 10 runs (eight earned) in 10 innings. He has also surrendered four home runs.BOSTON is 26-13 OVER in all games this season with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored.Meanwhile, the Mariners offense should also roll today vs a tired pitching staff and bullpen that just allowed 21 runs in a 3 game set to the Cardinals in which they were swept. Red Sox starter Houck has also looked less than stellar of late, garnering a 6.48 ERA in his L/3 starts. 

Over is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 during game 1 of a series.Over is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SEATTLE) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts, ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games are 65-30 OVER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings in Boston.Over is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings.

Play over

NYM starter Peterson has not looked great so far this season, but has a good hsitroy against the Dbacks, as is evident by a  2-0  record along with a 2.93 ERA in six career outings (five starts) against Washington. With the Nats only averaging 2.9 rpg this season at home Peterson and his bullpen should do fine from a defensive perspective in this tilt. 

Meanwhile the Nationals starter  Corbin has also under performed but is trending upwards as he has worked at least into the sixth inning in his last five starts. With the Mets only averaging 2.7 rpg vs lefties this season, Corbin should have a decent outing. 

NY METS are 12-4 UNDER  against left-handed starters this season like Crobin with a combined average of 6.7 rpg going on the board. 

NY METS are 9-1 UNDER  when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored. 

WASHINGTON is 14-5 UNDER vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored. 

WASHINGTON is 18-7 UNDER in home games with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored.

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or better  errors/game on the season are 39-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 7.8 rpg scored. 

MLB team (WASHINGTON) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL). are 52-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 overall and have won the first two games of this series at Fenway and must not be underestimated in their ability to make it 3 in a row here with Mikolas on the hill. The Cards right hurler owns a 2.20 ERA in his L/3 starts and is in top form. Meanwhile, BoSox starter Corey Kluber has really struggled under the shadows of the Green Monster and posted a 7.72 ERA in 4 starts here this season, which is not a good omen for his side tonight. 

Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Red Sox are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague home games.

BOSTON is 5-13 against the money line when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Home teams (BOSTON) - very good offensive team - scoring  5.4 or more  runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent good offensive team - scoring 4.5  or more runs/game on the season (NL) are 13-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cards to win 

Oakland not played well this year, but the implied odds of this tilt to not matchup well as compared to my projected outcome giving us value with the underdog. Heaney the Rangers pitcher has lost his L/2 starts here in this venue, and is being over rated today. 

TEXAS is 25-33  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Rangers are 21-44 in their last 65 during game 4 of a series.

Rangers are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in Oakland.

Play on the As to win 

Minnesota's Louie Varland (0-0, 4.32 ERA) will make his ninth career start and first against the Cubs, while Chicago will respond with  right-hander Marcus Stroman (2-3, 2.28). Varland has pitched his best at home this season where has garnered a 1.50 ERA in 6 innings of work. It must also be noted that Stroman has gone at least six innings while allowing two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts this season and Im betting nothing changes today in what Im projecting will be a lower scoring affair. (Also expecting immediate offensive regression from the Twins after yesterdays 11 run output) 

Under is 20-7-1 in Cubs last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.CHICAGO CUBS are 10-2 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 during game 3 of a series.Under is 9-4-1 in Twins last 14 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 15-7-2 in Twins last 24 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Play under

Cleveland's  right-hander Tanner Bibee (1-1, 4.30) posted a 3.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first three outings covering 14 2/3 innings and deserves respect here on this line offering. The Halos who have lost 10 of their 12 here at Progressive Field will counter with left-hander Patrick Sandoval (3-1, 3.41 ERA) in the finale. With the Halos winning the first two games of their series the Guardians will be hell bent on salvaging something from this series and will play hard today behind a viable hurler making them my choice in this spot play. Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.

Guardians are 15-5 in their last 20 during game 3 of a series.Guardians are 13-5 in their last 18 vs. American League West.

Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.. NEVIN is 2-8 against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite as the manager of LA ANGELS.

Play on Cleveland to win

Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, who will come off the IL on Saturday could easily be rusty here in a hitters ball park, making the Rockies a viable underdog at his implied price. The Rockies also hit lefties well, and deserve respect at home to pull of the upset in this spot play. Colorado has won 8 of their L/11 overall.Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.

Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter like Suarez.Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.

Phillies are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Colorado.

Play on the Rockies to win 

The pitching matchup of  righty Musgrove going against Urials the lefty gives the offenses and advantage as the   Dodgers rank third against righties (119 wRC+), while the Padres  rank  eighth against southpaws with a 115 wRC+ so far this season. Dodger stadium will see temps in the high 70s, with light winds blowing out to center.

LA DODGERS are 13-4 OVER  in home games in May games over the last 2 seasons with 11.7 rpg scored. Over is 9-3 in Dodgers last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 10-3 in Dodgers last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play over 

Baltimores starter Wells, , has not lost since April 9. In five starts since then, he is 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA, 23 strikeouts and seven walks and is not an easy guy to face for a Pirates side that has not scored more than 3 runs in 11 straight games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Roansy Contreras (3-3, 4.74 ERA) will go against a Baltimore team that hits southpaws better than righties ranking 15th . My projections based on the pitching matchup , and projected offensive outputs suggests a line closer 7.5 thus giving us value on this offering. 

Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 overall.BALTIMORE is 15-4 UNDER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.7 rog scored. 

Play under

These teams took part in a high scoring game yesterday, and the environment is right for another fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total according to my projections. With temps in the low 18s and NW winds at around 13 mph Im expected plenty runs.

BOSTON is 18-9 OVER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored.BOSTON is 15-6 OVER  in home games this season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 interleague games.Over is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 overall.

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play over

Twins starter Joe Ryan is a top tier pitcher and deserves a great deal of respect. Considering his performance charts this season, this is not to high of price to ask on this offered line . 

Twins are 8-3 in their last 11 home games.Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 inter-league home games.

Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Twins starter Ryan. 

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - hot hitting team - batting .325 or better over their last 3 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games are 11-46 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (MINNESOTA) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (.320 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less ), starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 110-39 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Twins to win 

Jays starter BERRIOS is 15-1  against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BERRIOS is 15-1  against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BERRIOS is 16-2  against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

 TORONTO is 15-3  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

I know Elders the Braves starter has pitcher very well out of the gate, but according to my projections this kid could in for a tough outing against explosive Blue Jays batting order.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 5-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB home teams (TORONTO) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 25-7 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto to win 

Marlins stater ALCANTARA is 10-2 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored.ALCANTARA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 4.6 rpg scored. 

MIAMI is 14-4 UNDER   vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons like the Reds Lodolo. with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored. 

CINCINNATI is 11-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons of 4.5 rpg scored. 

both theses offenses have been very inconsistent this season, while their pitching has been viable. My projections estimate a low scoring affair that fails to eclipse this number. 

MLB Road teams (CINCINNATI) - after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 33-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

McClanahan (7-0, 1.76 ERA) can become the first eight-game winner in the majors and hes performing an exaggerated level just like the rest of the team. Regression is obviously coming and Im betting it starts today against the Yankees. Note:McClanahan is 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees. Meanwhile, Yanks starter Cortes was 2-2 with a 3.28 ERA in four starts against Tampa Bay last season, including a victory on May 26 at St. Petersburg, Fla., when he hurled eight innings of one-run ball. My pitcher vs power rankings suggest he matches up well here vs the Rays and at these implies odds is under rated. Rays are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Yankees are 71-33 in their last 104 home games and are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a left-handed starter like McClanahan. 

TAMPA BAY is 24-35  against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.

NY YANKEES are 33-9 against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5  or less errors/game on the season, after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base are 49-24 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NYY to win 

Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Nelson. SAN FRANCISCO is sub .500 61-70 against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons and according to my projections being over rated here today vs the Snakes. Value resides with a hungry home side on a 3 game slid. 

Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League West

.Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.ARIZONA is 20-17  against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 4-13  against the money line vs. a team with a struggling  bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season.

Play on Dbacks to win 

Cubs send right-hander Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.35 ERA) to the hill to face the Cubs.Gray currently owns the best ERA in the American League and has allowed more than one run in only one of his seven trips to the hill this season. Meanwhile,Left-hander Drew Smyly (3-1, 3.05) will takes to the mound for the Cubs. In 16 career appearances (six starts) against the Twins, Smyly is 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA. My projections estimate, a pitchers duel here and when need be for the bullpens to finish the job.

SMYLY is 19-8 UNDER   in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 road games.Under is 6-0 in Cubs last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Under is 40-18-6 in Cubs last 64 during game 1 of a series.

MINNESOTA is 11-2 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 6 rpg scored. 

Under is 6-0 in Twins last 6 overall.

CHICAGO CUBS are 24-12 UNDER  after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored. 

Under is 40-18-6 in Cubs last 64 during game 1 of a series.

Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota.

Play under

Burnes, who won the Cy Young Award in 2021, has not been as sharp thus far as he was the last two seasons and is being over rated here. With that said, there is to  much value to pass up with a Royals side that has won four of their last five games and that has homered in 10 consecutive games. Also the Brewers have lost 8 of their L/10 and are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter like the Royals Taylor. Brewers are also 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Royals are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play on the KC Royals to win 

Clevelands lack of offense and top tier pitching have produced consistent unders of late. The Guardians have gone under in 9 of thier L/10 games with no tilt over that span seeing more than 8 combined runs scored. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight vs the visiting Angels. 

Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter like the Guardians starter Allen. 

Under is 7-2-1 in Angels last 10 during game 1 of a series.Under is 20-7 in Angels last 27 games following an off day.

CLEVELAND is 10-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.1 rpg scored. CLEVELAND is 21-7 UNDER   vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored.

MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Paxton off a long lay off after getting injured back in April is being over rated here based on what Ill describe as rust. The Cards  despite of some very inconsistent baseball early this season, are team that has generally hit lefties like Paxton hard, and once again look like they will do damage. Note: Cardinals are 23-10 in their last 33 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. American League East.Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague home games.

Play on St.Louis to win 

NY METS are 3-8 against the money line in May games this season. Mets are in a funk and fade material in their current form. NY METS are 4-16 against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. 

Mets are 1-7 in their last 8 road games.Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter like the Nationals Gore. 

MLB Home teams (WASHINGTON) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a rested bullpen - threw  2  or less innings in each of the last 2 games are 78-25 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Advantage value with the Washington Nats to win 

Cincinnati will have the pleasure of going against a fresh rookie just coming from Double A. Hes a talented kid but he goes against much tougher competition here and him stepping up wont come easily vs a Reds team, off winning two of three from the Mets. Meanwhile, the Marlins face a hurler in  Graham Ashcraft (2-1, 3.82) who matches up well against them according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings.  In two career starts against Miami, he has garnered a  1-0 record along  with a  stingy1.80 ERA. 

Marlins are 17-36 in their last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Ashcraft .Marlins are 34-73 in their last 107 during game 1 of a series.Marlins are 15-36 in their last 51 games following an off day.

Reds are 15-6 in the last 21 meetings.

Play on Cincinnati Reds to win 

My projections estimate that Boyd matches up well here vs the Seattle Mariners. Boyd is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against the Mariners. It must also be noted that Motown has momentum entering this tilt against Seattle as is evident by having won seven of their past nine games.  

Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter like Seattles Gonzales. 

DETROIT is 12-4  against the money line after shutting out their opponent over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - poor offensive team - scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 1 run or less are 86-47 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Detroit Tigers to win 

Giants starter Cobb has pitched well so far this season. However, he is   2-2 with a 6.10 ERA in six career starts against Arizona, including 0-1 with an 8.36 mark in three outings at Chase Field.  COBB is 13-21 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) I know Henry the Snakes starter does not have great numbers this season, but he is undervalued here according to my own pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.

Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League West.

Play on the DBacks to win 

 Im betting the Rays will soon regress offensively, after a very fast open to their season. Yankees starter German while viable is not as viable a pitcher as Rasmussen, but Germans bullpen is better and Im betting the Yankees will hang tough in this tilt and at this offering are viable underdog selections. Note: Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Rasmussen. 

NYY starter GERMAN is 18-4 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in his career. (Team's Record) GERMAN is 10-2   against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more  runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70)-AL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season are 35-11 L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.000 or less over his last 5 starts 44-17 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Rays are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in New York.

Play on NYY to win 

Reds will send right-handed reliever Derek Law (2-4, 3.00)to the hill  in his fifth career start as an opener among his 210 major league appearances. Right-hander Ben Lively is will make his first big-league appearance since 2019 with Kansas City. 

This will be a nice weather afternoon tilt with temps in the high 70s and light wind blowing out to center. With two average major league baseball starters on the hill Im betting on a boatload of runs going on the board this afternoon.  

Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 road games.

Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 vs. National League East.Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Over is 6-2 in Reds last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Reds last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-3 in Reds last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play over

Its going to be a fairly cool night in Chicago with temps near 60 and the wind blowing in from Center/right field, and Im betting on a lower scoring game that benefits the pitchers and not the hitters. It must also be noted the Cubs have seen more than 8 runs combined scored in just one of their L/8 games and only twice in their L/13 trips to the diamonds. 

Play under

The White Sox won yesterday but thats not always a good omen for this underperforming side as is evident by going  2-11 in their last 13 games following a win.Note: White Sox starter LYNN is 10-16  against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. The White Sox are also  3-13 in their last 16 during game 3 of a series and are are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Royals expected starter Keller. 

White Sox are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City and Im betting they go down in proverbial flames tonight.

(MLB Team's RecordMLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more), with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season are 9-28 L/26 seasons for a go against for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on the Royals to win 

The Mets are vulnerable at moment and in a bit of a funk and  even with Verlander on the hill their favorite status is bloated. NY METS are 2-7 against the money line in May games this season.NY METS are 3-15 against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons.

Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 road games.

NY METS are 3-9 against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season

MLB team (CINCINNATI) - after a win by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring and allowing 6 runs or more 2 straight games are 46-17 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Cincinnati to win 

Mets bullpen is tired and Im betting on some late runs here today after the starters leave this tilt. 

Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 vs. National League Central.Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 vs. National League East.Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

NY METS are 24-6 OVER after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored. 

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (NY METS) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are 124-61 OVER L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

This afternoon game is a pivotal division matchup and both sides will primed to compete, on a sunny afternoon in southern California , with near perfect weather and the wind blowing out to left center field. Both teams have alot of offensive talent, and despite of two decent pitchers on the mound, the environment favors a run fest.Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 vs. American League West. Over is 5-2 in Angels last 7 vs. American League West.Over is 5-2 in Angels last 7 home games.Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play over 

Kevin Gausman (2-3, 3.86 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays on Wednesday. My power rankings suggest he matches up well vs this explosive Phillies offense and when and if he does falter his bullpen should supply enough backing to keep the home side from an exaggerated output. Jays starter GAUSMAN is 34-16 UNDER   on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. Meanwhile, Philadelphia will hand the ball to Zack Wheeler (3-2, 4.26 ERA) on Wednesday. My own notes on Wheeler suggests upward momentum, and better pitch command which will hold the mighty Jays at bay. Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.

TORONTO is 13-4 UNDER  vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game this season.

Under is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 during game 2 of a series.Under is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play under 

Right-hander Merrill Kelly (3-3, 2.75 ERA) will start for Arizona on Wednesday and power rankings suggest he is a sub par opponent for the Marlins batting order.Kelly is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his three appearances against the Marlins and faced them one last season, Meanwhile, the Marlins with reply with starter, Edward Cabrera (2-3, 4.78 ERA),  He may. not catch many pundits eyes with a  regular data search , but  he owns a strikeout rate of almost  30%, along with a  53.2% ground-ball rate and is a viable starter to back in this situation on a value line. 

MLB team (MIAMI) - terrible offensive team (3.5 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), in May games are 24-13 L/5 season for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to win 

Rockies  right-hander Antonio Senzatela (0-1, 1.80 ERA), faces  opposite Pittsburgh left-hander Rich Hill (3-3, 4.54).Senzatela  has the edge here vs a side  that has lost eight of its past nine games and has garnered  just 12 runs during that span and are  are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Meanwhile, the Rockies have won 7 of thier L/9 overall and are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are also 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. like Hill.

Advantage Rockies on a value line 

My projections make this total closer to a 9. With the wind blowing out tp center Field at 13 miles an hour, I wont be surprised with an above average  over the fence action  tonight. 

Washingtons starter CORBIN is 35-18 OVER   in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in his career (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.3 rpg scored. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 26-12 OVER   as a favorite of -200 or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 9.4 rpg scored. 

Play over 

The Mets will send right-hander Max Scherzer (2-2, 5.56 ERA). The veteran right hander looked tired at the end of last season, and just has not looked like the pitcher he was earlier in his career.Scherzer was bashed for six earned runs on eight hits over just 3 1/3 innings against Detroit last time out, and once again is being over rated.  Meanwhile,In his last start, May 1 in San Diego, Weaver  the Reds starter was charged with four runs on nine hits over 4 1/3 innings in an 8-3 loss to the Padres and looks like cannon fodder. Weaver has been cranked  for 14 runs on 21 hits in just 16 innings of lackluster work . Im betting both pitcher give up enough runs for this tilt to be eclipsed early. 

Over is 8-3-2 in Mets last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-1 in Mets last 7 vs. National League Central.

NY METS are 23-6 OVER  after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.3 ppg scored.

Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 during game 1 of a series.Over is 7-1 in Reds last 8 vs. National League East.

MLB Home teams (CINCINNATI) - averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after a game they hit 4 or more home runs are 37-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play over

Alek Manoah (1-2, 4.71 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays.In Manoah's last start against the Boston Red Sox, he gave up eight hits and five runs, two earned, in five innings.He has not looked as impressive as he did last season, and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well against this current version of the Phillies. Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Philadelphia ended their 6 game losing streak last time out, and Im now betting with some momentum back on their sides they come out of this tilt with a victory. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.possibly out for the Jays with left wrist soreness, the Phillies very much look like the right side.

PHILADELPHIA is 25-9 against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons.

 MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after a win by 4 runs or more are 12-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to win 

Phillies stater NOLA is 24-9 OVER  in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average 9.9 rpg scored.NOLA is 18-6 OVER  when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with combined average of 11.4 rpg going on the board.Over is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, Alek Manoah (1-2, 4.71 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays.In Manoah's last start against the Boston Red Sox, he gave up eight hits and five runs, two earned, in five innings.He has not looked as impressive as he did last season and according to my power rankings does not matchup well here vs a sometimes explosive Phillies batting order. Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia.Over is 5-2-1 in Phillies last 8 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Fast furious runs expected here .

Play on the over

I know the Orioles have lost 3 straight and finally lost the opening game of a series this season by a 3-0 count after 11 straight victories . However, Im betting. a bounce back effort today on a value line based on my projections that estimate the Orioles have a better than 53% chance of taking this tilt. Orioles are 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Orioles are 20-7 in their last 27 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Orioles are 12-4 in their last 16 games following a loss.

BALTIMORE is 21-17 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 2 seasons.

BALTIMORE is 15-2  against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

MLB  team (TAMPA BAY) - good AL offensive team (5.1 or more  runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season are 41-52 L/5 seasons. 

Play on the Orioles to win 

Anthony DeSclafani has pitched well to start off his season, but Im betting he is over achieving after watching him put up horrendous numbers last season, as is evident by a 6.63 ERA .

Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Meanwhile, Irvin is an average pitcher who is in call up mode from the minors, but is supported with a up-trending Nationals  bullpen. Irvin (0-0, 2.08 ERA)  helped the  Nationals' with 4 1/3 innings of two-hit, one-run ball in his major league debut on Wednesday at home against the Chicago Cubs and must not disrespected here.

MARTINEZ is 25-17 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.40 or better as the manager of WASHINGTON.

Giants are 2-7 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series.

Play on the Nationals to win 

Peralta (3-2, 3.63 ERA) will be opposed by right-hander Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 3.38), who is making his third start since coming off the injured list. Peralta is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers, including a 4-0 loss last season at American Family Field and gets the nod here vs a still 100% Gonsolin. 

I know Milwaukee has lost 6 games in a row all on the road , but all good and bad runs must come to an end, and Im betting on this current down trend to come to end for the Brewers today vs the visiting Dodgers who traveled on a red eye from the West Coast last night. MILWAUKEE is 21-6  against the money line after 6 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

LA DODGERS are 11-21against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. ROBERTS is 21-39  ) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 as the manager of LA DODGERS.

MILWAUKEE is 15-3 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - in a game involving two good teams (54% to 62%), playing on Monday are 33-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to win 

Staring ptichers:
Padres - J. Musgrove-R vs Dodgers - J. Urias-L

Urias the Dodgers starter a hurler who contended for Cy Young ward last season and is not performing very well at the moment, as he has garnered a 6.75 ERA in his L/3 starts and a 7.20 ERA on road starts this season. Meanwhile, Padres starter Musgrove has allowed 10 earned runs in just a little over 8 innings of work this season, and once again looks like cannon fodder. 

The Dodgers have clobbered  right-handed pitching averaging 6.1 rpg in production while the Fathers  have  been  consistent against  left-handed pitching averaging 4.2 rpg.

Both defenses have been average this season and the bullpens inconsistent which has me leaning on this game going over the offered total. 

Padres starter MUSGROVE is 36-18 OVER   vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game  in his career (Team's Record) with the average rpg clicking in at 11.1 .MUSGROVE is 26-12 OVER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.9 rpg scored. MUSGROVE is 12-3 OVER (+8.9 Units) at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.8 rpg scored. 

Over is 9-4 in Padres last 13 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Over is 6-1 in Dodgers last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Over is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Over is 7-2 in Dodgers last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

LA DODGERS are 11-1 OVER after 2 or more consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored.

Play over

The Blue Jays, who entered the series with a five-game losing streak, have won the first two games of this series, with a  4-0 shutout Friday and an 8-2 beatdown yesterday and with momentum on their sides look very much like viable bets here today against the struggling Pirates who have lost 6 straight . 

Jays starter KIKUCHI is 15-7  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)TORONTO is 23-9 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 3 seasons. Kikuchi enters this game in top form, garnering a 2-0 record along with a 3.37 ERA in his last 3 starts including  having  struck out 30 batters in 31 1/3 innings of work.

Contreras the Pirates starter  advanced metrics - 4.32 xERA and a 5.16 xFIP. suggest he is being over rated  against a  explosive Blue Jays offense. Blue Jays are 40-19 in their last 59 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

TORONTO is 21-8  against the money line in road games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

SCHNEIDER is 24-11  against the money line in road games vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game as the manager of TORONTO.

Play on the Jays to win

The finale of this series now tied 1-1 features Atlanta's Bryce Elder (3-0, 1.75 ERA) against Baltimore's Tyler Wells (2-1, 3.34). WELLS is 12-4 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series and have an edge here according to my projections from a mathematical standpoint based on a value underdog line that is bloated.

Orioles are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.Orioles are 9-3 in their last 12 road games.

BALTIMORE is 22-11 against the money line in all games this season.BALTIMORE is 13-3) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.

ATLANTA is 9-16  against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons.

Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague home games.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.000 or better  over his last 3 starts, after a game where their bullpen blew a save 30-16 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Orioles are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.

Play on Baltimore to win

The Astros starting hurler  France has been a strong minor league pitcher averaging  2.33 ERA in 19 1/3 innings this year in Triple-A ball , while averaging 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings.  The 28 year old can make you miss, and against a Seattle team that is struggling to hit and score hes a prime candidate to help his team to a victory. Meanwhile, the Astros bats get to face a sub par hurler in Marco Gonzales who has garnered a bloated  4.74 ERA. MARCO GONZALES vs. HOUSTON  -GONZALES is 2-9 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.459. 

Astros are 44-14 in their last 58 games vs. a left-handed starter like the Mariners starter Gonzales. 

Astros are 37-18 in the last 55 meetings in Seattle.Astros are 52-19 in the last 71 meetings.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games are 27-9 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Astros to win 

Minnesota's starter Gray has  not allowed more than one run in any  of his starts this season and has garnered 41 strikeouts in 31 innings of top tier pitching .Meanwhile, the Guardians  Allen has  made  two starts during this campaign, and looked good both times . The southpaw has  not allowed more than  three runs and struck out 16 batters in  11 innings of quality work. I expect both starters to long and strong and for both od these decent bullpens to hold the proverbial fort. Note:The Twins pen ranks  13th while garnering a  3.73 ERA, while the  Guardians rank eighth in MLB with a 3.35 ERA.  Im betting on the pitching staffs having the upper hand on the offenses today.

CLEVELAND is 7-0 UNDER  vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season with a combined average of 4.6 rpg scored.Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 home games.

Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 21-6 in Guardians last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning recor

Under is 8-2-1 in Twins last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 3-1-2 in Twins last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

MINNESOTA is 37-11 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored.

Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Cleveland.

Play on the under

Detroits starter Turnbull has been battered this season as he returns from Tommy John surgery.  The righty hurler  has  garnered a bloated  6.83 ERA . Meanwhile, veteran righty Wainwright makes his season debut for the struggling Cards . his velocity was off late last season, and he is throwing alot of soft stuff,  curveballs in particular, that a decent hitting and up-trending Tigers offense Im betting can tee off on. 

Note: St.Louis has allowed 33 runs in thier L/5 games and with Wainwright on the hill more runs should be on the agenda. As far as the Cards offense goes, they should get a boost facing a pitcher that is in fade material mode at this time. 

DETROIT is 7-0 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored . 

Advantage to the over 

The Dodgers are rocking and rolling right now with 6 straight wins and a recent   offensive  explosion of 42 runs in their L/4 trips to the diamonds. In their current form they are worth trailing on a value line in a advantageous situation according to my power rankings. 

KERSHAW is 24-9 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.14 and a WHIP of 0.964.The three-time Cy Young Award winner has a 0.763 WHIP and a .175 opponents' batting average and looks like he is back in his prime.Kershaw is 11-4 with a 1.87 ERA in 20 career starts at Petco Park.

Dodgers are 58-21 in their last 79 during game 1 of a series.

 Dodgers are 70-27 in their last 97 games vs. a right-handed starter and have the advantage here vs the Fathers today like Fathers starter  Darvish. Darvish is 3-5 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 2.47 ERA, 82 strikeouts and 17 walks in 62 innings over 10 starts.

Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. 

Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 games following an off day.

MLB team (SAN DIEGO) - after allowing 1 run or less against opponent after scoring 8 runs or more 3 straight games are 9-33 L/26 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate.

Dodgers are 66-30 in the last 96 meetings.

Play on Los Angeles Dodgers to win 

The Athletics will send lefty Kyle Muller (0-2, 6.28 ERA) to the mound against Royals righty Brad Keller (2-2, 3.56). Muller has allowed 56 baserunners in 28 2/3 innings. My power rankings suggest this is a pitching mismatch favoring the Royals.One of the few bright spots among Royals starters, Keller has allowed hitters to a .226  BA , in 30 1/3 innings.

OAKLAND is 8-34  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons. 

OAKLAND is 1-17  against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season.

MLB Road teams (OAKLAND) - with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games, in May games are 15-57 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Royals to win 

George Kirby, 2-2, 2.93 ERA, will get the start for the Mariners. The Athletics will counter with Drew Rucinski, 0-1, 4.76 ERA.

Seattle’s pitching staff  has been consistent,  as is evident by giving up an average  4.14 runs per game. Opposition batting orders  have garnered a lowly .230 batting average against the Mariners, which ranks seventh in the league. Their 3.52 ERA is also seventh, as is their 1.21 WHIP are also ranked 7th. Meanwhile, I know the  As pitching is one of the most inconsistent  in all of MLB , but this matchup and pitcher vs batting order projections looks favorable for them when it comes to limiting the Mariners offensive production with D. Rucinski on the hill . (Yes Hill has not impressed of late but does matchup well here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. 

Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 road games.Under is 7-3 in Mariners last 10 during game 3 of a series.

Under is 9-4 in Athletics last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 5-2 in Athletics last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Seattles starter Kirby.OAKLAND is 17-6 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons

MLB  Road teams (SEATTLE) - after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 32-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for. a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Play under

Colorados starter Seabold (0-0, 5.27 ERA) will match up against  Brewers lefty Wade Miley (3-1, 1.86). My projections estimate that Seahold matches up well vs a 4.4 rpg on a .240 BA. Meanwhile, Miley also matches up well here vs a Colorado side averaging 3.9 rpg. I know Coors Filed is a proverbial launching pad, but this series has been fairly low scoring so far and nothing will change today according to my projections. 

Under is 12-3-1 in Brewers last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Seabold.Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

MLB Road teams where the total is 11 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 37-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for. a 82 % conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

Freeland (2-3, 4.32 ERA) will square off against Milwaukee's Eric Lauer (3-2, 5.19) in a battle of left-handers.

Milwaukee has struggled against southpaw pitching averaging just 3.2 rpg via .202 BA. 

FREELAND is 33-18 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in his career. (Team's Record)

Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or worse) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season are 39-84 L/26 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Brewers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.Brewers are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Colorado.

Colorado Rockies to win 

Torontos starter MANOAH is 10-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)MANOAH is 15-4 UNDER  in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)Manoah has been outstanding in six career starts against the Red Sox, going 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 37 innings and Im betting another top notch effort tonight. Meanwhile,Nick Pivetta (1-2, 5.11 ERA) goers to the hill for  Boston  . The right-hander has pitched at least five innings and recorded at least five strikeouts in four of his first five starts and is edging into top form. Note: Under is 9-2-1 in Blue Jays last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 8-3-2 in Blue Jays last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Play under

Reds starter Cessa may not inspire bettors when looking at an under bet but it must be noted that SAN DIEGO is 9-1 UNDER  vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse over the last 2 seasons like the Reds expected starter Cessa. On the flips side , Lugo who makes  his 15th career appearance (second start) against the Reds  owns a  a 1.04 ERA, a 1.154 WHIP and a .234 opponents' batting average vs Cinncy. He has pitched well this season, and deserves respect  in his ability to limit the inconsistent Red offense here today and help us get paid via an under wager.

Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 during game 3 of a series.Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 vs. National League Central.

Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-3 in Reds last 10 vs. a team with a winning recordS.

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season are 39-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Philadelphia will send left-hander Matt Strahm (2-2, 2.31 ERA) to the mound.The Dodgers will counter with lefty Julio Urias (3-3, 4.41 ERA), who  won the National League ERA title last season with a 2.16 mark.  Urias, who is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA lifetime against the Phillies in six appearances (four starts) is capable of holding the Phillies bats down. Also according to my pitcher vs power rankings numbers matches up well here. Factoring in the bull pens as well has me projecting a totals line closer to 7 which gives us a full run of value to the under. 

Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Dodgers starter URIAS is 19-8 UNDER   vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games.

PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 UNDER after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs over the last 3 seasons. 

Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (LA DODGERS) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games are 40-11 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games are 50-24 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Texas has averaged 6.4 rpg vs right handed starter like the Dbacks starter  Gallen and 6.7 rpg at home this season, and are a value  home dog here according to my projections. 

Diamondbacks are 4-10 in their last 14 during game 1 of a series.Diamondbacks are 8-20 in their last 28 vs. American League West.

Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (TEXAS) - good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season, after a combined score of 17 runs or more are 25-9 L/5 seasons for. a 74% conversion rate for bettors. (Texas smashed the Yankees 15-2 L/time out). 

Play on the Texas Rangers to win

Minnesotas starter RYAN is 10-1 OVER   in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11 rpg scored. CHI WHITE SOX are 18-4 OVER in home games vs. a starting pitcher like Ryan whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 13.3 rpg scored.

Meanwhile, White Sox Tuesday starter Michael Kopech owns a (0-3, 7.01 ERA) and a bloated 9.31 ERA at home. My pitcher vs batting order power ranking suggest the Twins matchup well against him and should do some early damage. which will help us eclipse this total. 

MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) (AL), after scoring 10 runs or more are 39-11 OVER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 10.1 rpg. 

MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, after 2 straight games where their bullpen blew a save are 62-27 OVER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 9.9 rpg going on the scoreboard.

Over is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.

Play over 

White Sox are 7-20 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like the Twins starter Ryan. 

 White Sox garnered a victory last time out, but that has not been a recipe for success in the follow up as the White Sox are 0-8 in their last 8 games following a win. Rinse and repeat is the bet here.

Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League Central.Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game, after 2 straight games where the bullpen was hit hard for 4+ earned runs are 4-33 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Twins to win

Padres starter SNELL is 0-11 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) I know he has pitched well recently but it must be noted thatSNELL is 5-13   against the money line after giving up 2  or less earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 overall and get the nod here on. a value run  line. 

Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. National League Central.

Play on Cincinnati Reds +1.5 runline 

Jays had a 7 game win streak end yesterday in a loss to Seattle, and will now be n a bounce back mode here today. Jays starter Berrios owns a stingy 1.42 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill and is in top form. His team has won his L/3 starts vs the Red Sox and my power rankings suggest he matches up well here against the BoSox starter Kluber who has recorded a 6.89 ERA in his L/3 starts including a 0-3 record and 8.78 ERA at home in Fenway this season. Advantage Blue Jays. 

BOSTON is 34-54  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons like the Jays starter Berrios.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TORONTO) - AL team with a low slugging percentage (.410 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or better), starting a pitcher who gave up 2  or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 61-14 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Toronto to win 

Chicago left-hander Drew Smyly (2-1, 3.21 ERA) opposes left-hander MacKenzie Gore (3-1, 3.00) in the series opener. Smyly is 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA over his past four starts. CHICAGO CUBS are 14-4 UNDER  in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons like Gore. Everything points to this being a pitchers duel. 

SMYLY is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6 rpg scored. SMYLY is 12-2 UNDER (+10.1 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.2 rpg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 overall.Under is 37-18-6 in Cubs last 61 during game 1 of a series.

Under is 13-3-3 in Nationals last 19 during game 1 of a seriesUnder is 7-3 in Nationals last 10 overall.Under is 7-3 in Nationals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on the under 

Im betting that the Phillies will not get the series sweep as the Astros have the edge here, especially with Left-hander Bailey Falter (0-4, 4.50)  starting for Philadelphia. 

Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Phillies are 20-41 in their last 61 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.

HOUSTON is 31-8  against the money line after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 20-4  against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 18-3  against the money line after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. BAKER is 25-5 ( against the money line after 4 or more consecutive unders as the manager of HOUSTON.

Home teams (HOUSTON) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL) are 36-16 L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to win

Pittsburgh put 16 runs on the board yesterday while allowing 1 run in a win vs the Nationals . Im expecting immediate regression offensively here today for the Pirates which will help us a cash a under ticket. 

Under is 10-3-1 in Pirates last 14 during game 3 of a series.

PITTSBURGH is 22-11 UNDER   on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored. 

WASHINGTON is 19-7 UNDER vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

WASHINGTON is 42-26 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 7.9 rpg. 

Under is 11-5-1 in Nationals last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 11-5-1 in Nationals last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Oviiedo.

Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Washington.

Play under

The Orioles and Tigers split Saturday's doubleheader, with Baltimore pushing through with a  6-4 victory in the nightcap. That marked the Orioles 10th win in its last 12 games and like them to bring home the cash again this Sunday. Note: The Orioles Im betting will get out to an early lead vs Detroit's starter Spencer Turnbull (1-3, 7.25), who has had more strikeouts than walks in only one of his five trips to the hill this season.Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Turnbull. 

Tigers are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter like Bradish. Tigers are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Os starter Bradish. Orioles are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play on the Orioles to win 

Tampa Bay outscored Chicago 16-11 to secure a three-game sweep last weekend in Florida and has continued the momentum by winning the first two games  of this weekend series. Rays are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.

TAMPA BAY is 5-0  against CHI WHITE SOX this season and Im betting they make it 6 in a row in the south side tonight.

TAMPA BAY is 25-2  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 5.4 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 15-1 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. TAMPA BAY is 13-0  against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.

CHI WHITE SOX are 4-17  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.CHI WHITE SOX are 6-19 (against the money line in April games this season.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or worse) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33)or less, with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season are 34-123 L/26 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rays to win 

Right-hander Cristian Javier (2-0, 3.21) has the starting assignment for the Astros on Saturday and according to my projections has a high percentage chance of having a  quality start. Meanwhile, Right-hander Zack Wheeler (2-1, 4.73 ERA) is the scheduled starter for the Phillies which I also project to have a quality start. 

Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 53-26-6 in Phillies last 85 vs. American League West.

Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 6-2-1 in Astros last 9 vs. National League East.

THOMSON is 22-9 UNDER  in road games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better as the manager of PHILADELPHIA with s combined average of 6.3 rpg scored.THOMSON is 26-9 UNDER  after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better as the manager of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored.

Under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Play under 

The Royals have lost by 2 runs or more in 8 of their L/11 overall losses and this tilt projects out to be a runline win for the Twins. The Twins last 5 wins overall have come by 2 runs or more. Rinse and repeat in a projected mismatch. 

Note: KCs starter Brad Keller . Over the past 14 games, a Royals starter has been has garnered a win just one time , with all Royals  starters combining to allow 57 runs (56 earned) in 67 2/3 innings during that span -- an ERA of 7.45.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (MINNESOTA) - where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing are 58-9 L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.5 which qualifies on this run line offering from the books. 

MLB team against a 1.5 run line (KANSAS CITY) - after 2 straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 11-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Twins -1.5 runline 

The last time the Mariners visited Toronto, they overcame an 8-1 deficit Oct. 8 to complete a two-game sweep of the best-of-three American League wild-card series. You can bet the Jays have some redemption in mind. 

Seattles starter CASTILLO is 10-21 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after a win by 4 runs or more.12-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games, after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 30-14 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto to win 

The Baltimore Orioles swept the Detroit Tigers in a three-game home series last weekend and matchup well against them according to my early season power rankings. 

Orioles starter GIBSON is 22-12  against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Gibson (4-0, 3.60 ERA)  worked out of a bases-loaded jam in the first inning on Saturday and went on to limit Detroit to two hits and one run in 6 1/3 innings.

The Orioles batting order matches up very well left-hander Joey Wentz (0-3, 7.56 ERA), who allowed five runs and six hits in four innings on Saturday.

Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Orioles are 8-1 in their last 9 overall. Orioles are 35-17 in their last 52 during game 1 of a series.

BALTIMORE is 11-1 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

Tigers are 6-20 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Orioles are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.

Play on Baltimore to win 

The As look abysmal at this point in the season, and today Im betting they have huge problems with Angels super star starter Ohtani. Ohtani (3-0, 0.64 ERA) has made five starts this season and is yet to give up more than three hits in a game. 

OAKLAND is 1-15   against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with the average rpg diff clicking at -5.5. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +200 or more (OAKLAND) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 3 starts, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games are 1-36 L/26 seasons. 

Play on the LAA to win -1.5 runline 

After being held to five hits getting shut out for the fifth time in a 6-0 series-opening loss on Tuesday, San Diego recorded nine hits during a 5-3 win on Wednesday and have momentum entering this tilt and deserve my betting respect on this line offering.Padres are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.

Padres are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.Padres are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CHICAGO CUBS are 17-31  against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO CUBS are 5-18  against the money line in home games against NL West opponents over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (SAN DIEGO) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (.400 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games are 137-53 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the San Diego Padres to win 

Cubs starter Smyly (2-1, 3.13 ERA) took a perfect game into the eighth inning Friday against the Los Angeles Dodgers and now Im betting with upward momentum on his side and continues his top tier work.He is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA in four games (two starts) vs. San Diego. Padres hace average 2.8 rpg scored. 

SMYLY is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.1 rpg scored. 

 Scheduled San Diego starter Michael Wacha (2-1, 7.08 ERA) has struggled in his last two tilts but is a viable hurler who Im betting matches up well here vs the Cubs batting order in windy Wrigley. MLB Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season are 65-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on the under 

Chicago will start right-hander Michael Kopech (0-2, 6.97). In three career appearances (one start) against Toronto, Kopech is 0-1 with a 20.77 ERA. The Blue Jays answer back with Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (3-0, 3.80 ERA) who will start for Toronto on Wednesday. He is 1-1 with a 6.92 ERA in three career starts against the White Sox.

Im betting on the explosive Blue Jays bats to be the major catalysts behind a combined score that eclipses this total. 

Over is 9-3-1 in White Sox last 13 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

Play on the over

The Reds will vie for the sweep on Wednesday when they send Graham Ashcraft (2-0, 1.88 ERA) to the mound opposite fellow right-hander Jon Gray (1-1, 3.72). Im betting the inconsistent Reds dont get the sweep and instead Im backing the Rangers here to salvage a victory behind the arm of Gray who is 4-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 4.25 and a WHIP of 1.348 with his team winning 5 of his all time starts vs the Reds.Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.

Play on Texas to win 

Kansas City lost for the ninth time in the past 10 games yesterday by a 5-4 count to the Dbacks. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here as the Dbacks will be wide awake despite of their opponents ugly record so far this season. Quote:"I don't care if it's home or road. It's frustrating to lose, and everybody in there is frustrated," "It's a dangerous thing to start thinking about who you're playing and what their record is because we respect every opponent," Lovullo said. "If we start to look at them as less talented, which they are not, we're in trouble." Quote.

Royals are 3-14 in their last 17 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter like Dbacks starter Nelson. .Royals are 1-6 in their last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter like Dbacks starter Neslson. 

Royals are 16-37 in their last 53 during game 2 of a series.Royals are 22-51 in their last 73 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games.

Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games.. 

Royals are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.Play on Arizona Dbacks to win

Two viable starting hurlers go to the hill today in this matchup between the Astros and their hosts the Rays. In the Astros' 8-1 victory on Wednesday, Garcia threw seven shutout innings and allowed just two hits. He struck out nine and walked one over a season-high 92 pitches and he enters this tilt with momentum. Meanwhile, Drew Rasmussen (3-1, 2.01) in his three victories has held the opposition scoreless -- six innings against the Washington Nationals, seven against the Oakland A's and five his last time outing in Cincinnati against the Reds this past  Wednesday.Rasmussen holds a 2-1 record with a 3.00 ERA in three lifetime starts versus the Astros.My projections estimate both starting throwers will long and strong today and help keep this tilt on the low side of the totals offering.

HOUSTON is 44-24 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. HOUSTON is 44-21 UNDER   when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. 

Under is 20-7-3 in Astros last 30 vs. American League East.Under is 18-6-4 in Astros last 28 on astroturf.

TAMPA BAY is 34-20 UNDER  vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.8 rpg scored. 

Under is 6-2-1 in Rays last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (TAMPA BAY) - good hitting team (AVG .285 or better ) against a good starting pitcher (ERA  4.20 or worse) -AL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 30-5 L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 28-9-3 in the last 40 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Play under

Left-hander Tommy Henry will make his season debut on Monday night against Kansas City right-hander Brad Keller (2-2, 3.00 ERA).

The Dbacks consider themselves contenders this season, and Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo talked about in spring training when he said his ball-club could be a playoff contender "if we make the most of our opportunities." This is an opportunity they need to take advantage of as the Royals despite of a recent small crop of wins must be considered cannon fodder for a true contender. Ill give Lovullo and comapny the bdenefit of the doubt and take them as short favs here today. 

LOVULLO is 16-5  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better as the manager of ARIZONA like the Royals starter Keller. 

Play on the Arizona Dbacks to win 

Right-hander Colin Rea (0-0, 4.22 ERA), who has been called up from Triple-A Nashville after Brandon Woodruff went on the injured list, makes his third start for Milwaukee, while left-hander Matthew Boyd (0-1, 4.50) gets the nod for Detroit. Note:Boyd is 0-1 with a 14.09 ERA in two career starts versus Milwaukee, allowing 12 runs on 13 hits in 7 2/3 innings, including five homers.

Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter like the Brewers Rea. 

DETROIT is 7-26  against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.(Tigers are struggling with their offense)

MILWAUKEE is 11-4  against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season.Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter like Boyd. Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss.

Tigers are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Milwaukee.

Play on the Brewers to win 

In Monday's series opener, Tampa Bay starts rookie right-hander Taj Bradley (2-0, 2.61 ERA), who will be making his third big league start. My early season pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggests he matches up well here vs the Astros.  Meanwhile, the Astros are going with right-hander Jose Urquidy (1-1, 3.66), who will be making his fifth start this season. Urquidy has faced the Rays twice in his career, both starts, and he is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA with 11 strikeouts in 12 innings against them.Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. With two solid bullpens behind each starter a lower scoring tilt is my projection. 

HOUSTON is 26-14 UNDER vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored.HOUSTON is 28-14 UNDER (+12.8 Units) after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored.HOUSTON is 25-10 UNDER  against AL East opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. 

Under is 18-5-4 in Astros last 27 on astroturf. 

Under is 6-1-1 in Rays last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 28-8-3 in the last 39 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Under is 5-2-2 in Rays last 9 during game 1 of a series.

Play under 

The Mets lost yesterday to the Giants, but now Im expecting them to bounce back here in this tilt. SHOWALTER is 51-21 against the money line after a loss as the manager of NY METS. Mets are 37-14 in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Mets are 49-19 in their last 68 games following a loss. Giants are 1-10 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Giants are 0-8 in their last 8 games following a win.

NYM starter MEGILL is 12-3  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

SAN FRANCISCO is 12-31 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons like NYM starter Megill.

MEGILL is 8-0  against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)( The Mets righty lost to the Dodgers last time out) 

Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. like Ross Stripling of the Giants. 

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) - with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games, after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 30-12 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Mets to win on the money-line 

The Royals have lost 7 straight and 10 of their L/11 with only one of the losses coming by 2 or less runs. Advantage Halos on the runline. 

KANSAS CITY is 2-17 against the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff registering at -3.2. 

Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - poor AL offensive team (4.2 or less  runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base are 4-34 L/5 seasons with the average rog didd clicking in at +2.6 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (KANSAS CITY) - allowing 4.9 or more runs/game on the season (AL), after a combined score of 3 runs or less are 4-41 L/5 seasons with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.2 which qualifies on this Run-line offering. 

Play on the LA Angels to win -1.5

Braves starter WRIGHT is 26-6   against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) WRIGHT is 19-0  against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) WRIGHT is 20-4  against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) WRIGHT is 25-3 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Wright scored the win in his only career start against Houston, going six innings with six hits allowed, two earned runs and seven strikeouts against the Astros last August. Im betting he gets the job done again in his third start of the season.

Houston kicked off the series with a 6-4 victory Friday. Atlanta scored four first-inning runs, then was held scoreless for eight as the Astros chipped away at the lead and will be primed for a bounce back effort here at home. 

ATLANTA is 26-15  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better like Valdez. VALDEZ is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 19.27 and a WHIP of 3.212.

Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.Braves are 41-10 in their last 51 during game 2 of a series.Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. American League West.

Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win.Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.Astros are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.Astros are 5-11 in the last 16 meetings in Atlanta.

Play on Atlanta to win