JAMESON TAILLON (R) vs. JAKE ARRIETA (R)

Taillon the Pirates starter has an advantage vs a Philadelphia side that has struggled against right handed starters this season, averaging just 3.7 rpg on a .207 team BA.  He gets the nod here tonight. Pirates are 7-0 in Taillons last 7 starts vs. National League East.Pirates are 4-0 in Taillons last 4 road starts.

Pirates starter TAILLON is 11-3 l/14 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 . ARRIETA is 8-13 L/21 against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Pirates are 9-2 in their last 11 road games.Phillies are 22-45 in their last 67 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 3 starts are 33-17 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the moneyline

  Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (3-0, 1.83 ERA) vs. Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (2-0, 1.69)

The Bosox starting pitcher Porcello has looked strong out of the gate this season, but is  6-7 with a 5.67 ERA in 16 career trips to the hill against Los Angeles and  despite some quality starts recently  at Angel Stadium  is just 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA in six career . Note: The Red Sox are 0-9  L/9 when Rick Porcello starts as a dog when they won in his last start. 

Angels are 5-0 in Skaggs' last 5 starts.

The Angels have averaged 6.4 RPG vs right handed starters this season.Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Red Sox are 4-9 in Porcellos last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Red Sox are 3-8 in Porcellos last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 1-4 in Porcellos last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

I know the Halos got smacked around last night when Japanese Phenom Ohtani faced his first real challenge, but I now expect a red face angels squad to be ready to rebound.The Angels are 13-0 L/13  as a money-line  favorite past the first game of a series after their starter pitched less than 3 innings last game.

MLB Home teams (LA ANGELS) - excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  0.800 or less over his last 3 starts are 32-13  L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Angels to win on the moneyline

Royals RH Ian Kennedy (1-1, 1.00 ERA) vs. Blue Jays LH J.A. Happ (2-1, 3.94)

Kennedy has allowed a total of two runs in 18 innings, but his bull pen his let him down or he would perfect so far. With a little support here or a complete game we have a value RL with taking the Royals hurler this afternoon. I know the Royals have lost 7 straight, so I'm not 100% on the SU win, even tough that's possible, and will instead take the runline option.

The Blue Jays are 0-6 SU in the last game of a series as a 140+ favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they scored first. Toronto was an average of minus 180 on the moneyline in these six multiple-run losses and in each of their last three they were shutout.

Play on the KC Royals on the RL +1.5

Red Sox LH David Price (1-1, 2.40 ERA) vs. Angels RH Shohei Ohtani (2-0, 2.08)

On a cold night last time out Price said he lost feeling in his fingertips, and was not in top form, but prior to that  allowed just seven hits with 10 strikeouts over 14 innings in his previous two outings and is now motivated for a big time performance  opposite Halos Japanese Phenom Ohtani . Both these quality pitchers face strong offenses, but Price according to my pitcher vs offense power rankings suggests we have enough value to take the  road underdog.

The Angels have the best run differential in baseball at plus-48 with the Red Sox second at plus-42.

PRICE team when he starts  is 35-13  against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game.. whether this is an anomaly or not its still worth mentioning that  BOSTON is 22-3  against the money line when playing on Tuesday dating back to last season.Red Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 games on natural surface

.Angels are 2-12 in their last 14 games following an off day. Angels are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.LA ANGELS are 5-16 L/21 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game

The Red Sox are 6-0 on the moneyline L/6 in the first game of a series with rest off a home game in which they had a comeback win, winning by an average of 7.0 runs per game.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the moneyline

White Sox RH Miguel Gonzalez (0-2, 8.68 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Trevor Cahill (2017: 4-3, 4.93)

Neither of these pitchers inspire me. One has struggled and the other has been in the minors to this point in the season. The edge however I'm betting comes via the rested starter Gonzalez who has not pitched in 8 days, and will be very fresh for this tilt. I know the As are expecting a sell out tonight because of a huge promotion, but  this only guarantees a festive atmosphere, that both teams will feed off. I have enough edge here to take a swing for the fences via viable underdog investment situation.

Athletics are 0-5 in Cahills last 5 starts vs. American League Central.Athletics are 2-11 in their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Athletics are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

CHI WHITE SOX are 17-7 OVER  L/24  in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game on the season dating back to last year.

The Athletics are 0-13 on the moneyline as a home 120+ favorite after playing as a home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not a series opener.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the moneyline

Marlins LH Jarlin Garcia (0-0, 1.13 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (2-1, 5.19)

The Yankees bats are on fire and have  won their second straight by getting 15 hits and going 7 for 18 with runners in scoring position during a 12-1 victory on Monday.Miami allowed double-digit runs for the third time and double-digit hits for the sixth time this season, and I won't be surprised of the Yankees explode here again tonight eclipse this Total all by themselves. Note: NY YANKEES are 10-1 OVER vs. NL teams scoring 3.5 or less runs/game on the season like Miami, with the combined average score of 12.6 rpg getting scored.MIAMI is 10-1 OVER in road games after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. NY YANKEES are 11-1 OVER in home games after scoring 9 runs or more with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.

 MLB Road teams (MIAMI) - cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 10 games are 36-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 8-2-2 in Marlins last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-0-1 in Marlins last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 10-1-1 in Yankees last 12 overall.Over is 10-4 in Yankees last 14 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Yankees are 11-0 OVER  in the last game of a series at home after they scored 6+ runs last game.

Play OVER

Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (0-2, 4.20 ERA) vs. Mariners LH James Paxton (0-1, 5.74)

Two viable pitching options go head to head tonight in Seattle as Dallas Keuchel and James Paxton take to the hill for their respective teams. But according to my pitcher vs opposition batting order power rankings the Astros match up well vs the Mariners. Note: Astros are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle and  are 4-0 in Keuchels last 4 starts vs. Mariners.

Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Astros are 13-4 in their last 17 vs. American League West.Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Mariners are 2-6 in Paxtons last 8 starts.Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and are 1-7 L/8 at home vs a winning side.Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

KEUCHEL is 8-1 L/9  against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  62% or better),HOUSTON is 43-14 L/57  against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 and is 29-12 L/41  against the money line in road games against division opponents. PAXTON team when he starts  is 13-20 L/33 against the money line in night games.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (HOUSTON) - with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 44-9 L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline

Miami is expected to start, right-hander Jose Urena (0-2, 5.06 ERA), against Pirates right-hander Ivan Nova (1-1, 5.19 ERA).

Nova, Pittsburgh's Opening Day starter,  is off a top tier effort vs the  Chicago Cubs' in their  home opener Tuesday notching a  8-5 win, allowing three runs and seven hits in seven innings, with no walks It was Nova's 11th career start of at least seven innings without allowing a walk .Nova's only two career appearances against Miami, both starts in 2017, were victories in which he did not allow a run and he gets the nod again here today.

MIAMI is 10-31 L/41  against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last couple of seasons.NOVA is 21-7 l/28  against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 15-0 SU as a favorite after they shut out their opponent and it is not a series opener.

MLB Home teams (MIAMI) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less ) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or worse ), in April games are 27-49 L/5 seasons for a go against  65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates on the moneyline

Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (0-1, 1.35 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Chris Sale (1-0, 1.06)

Boston's bats are on fire averaging 8.9 runs while taking six of the last seven and should do just fine today vs a decent pitcher in Bundy and could easily eclipse this number all by themselves. Bundy has not done that well at Fenway and is  3-4 with a 5.01 ERA lifetime against Boston there. I know Chris Sale the Red Sox ace is always hard to face for any team, but I expect the Orioles to do just enough damage to help this combined score eclipse this total.

BOSTON is 17-5 OVER  L/22  in home games after scoring 10 runs or more over the last few seasons. Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 road games.Over is 9-2 in Bundys last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 7-2 in Orioles last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 6-0-1 in Red Sox last 7 overall.Over is 4-0 in Sales last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 7-0 in Sales last 7 starts vs. American League East.Over is 7-0 in Sales last 7 starts vs. American League East.

MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (BALTIMORE) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 31-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Rangers LH Mike Minor (1-1, 2.53 ERA) vs. Astros RH Charlie Morton (2-0, 0.00)

Charlie Morton is a very good hurler, but he has a history of some below average day time starts in his career as these following numbers suggest. MORTON team is just   17-37   against the money line in day games in his career. Meanwhile, the Rangers starting hurler Minor split his first two starts but has held opponents to a .143 batting average and struck out 12 in 10 2/3 innings while walking just four and is a viable hurler to back on a value RL.

MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +165) (TEXAS) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better), after scoring 2 runs or less are 91-27 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texas Rangers on the +1.5 RL

Rockies LH Kyle Freeland (0-2, 5.56 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Tanner Roark (1-0, 4.50)

The Nationals are struggling to score runs, and averaging just 2.7 rpg at home this season, and even against an average pitcher look out of sync at the moment. I'm expecting more of the same ineptness today vs Freeland of the Rockies. Meanwhile, Colorado will go against a right handed pitcher in Roarke . The Rockies bats have struggled against orthodox hurlers, this season, averaging just 4.2 rpg via Mendoza line average hitting ( .248). More of the same struggles look to be on todays agenda according to my cross reference power ranking projections

Under is 10-3-1 in Roarks last 14 starts overall.Under is 6-2 in Roarks last 8 home starts.Under is 21-4-3 in Nationals last 28 vs. National League West.Under is 19-8-3 in Freelands last 30 starts overall.Under is 6-2 in Rockies last 8 vs. National League East.Under is 6-1-3 in Freelands last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.

FREELAND is 11-2 UNDER  with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored.

WASHINGTON is 21-8 UNDER L/29 against NL West opponents dating back to last seasons witch a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored.WASHINGTON is 16-3 UNDER after 6 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.2 rpg going on the board.

Play UNDER

Angels RH Nick Tropeano (2016: 3-2, 3.56 ERA) vs. Royals RH Ian Kennedy (1-0, 0.75)

Having two way Japanese star Shohei Ohtani  in their lineup the Angels are fast becoming a public team. He homered in the first three games he started as the designated hitter, but didn't smack a bleacher smash last time out. He is still however,  hitting .364 with a 1.190 one-base-plus-slugging percentage and has already become the talk  of MLB baseball fans and bettors alike. Because of this the Halos are now a public team, which sometimes could taint their lines , which I;m betting is the case tonight, especially with Royals right-hander Ian Kennedy on the hills for the Royals. The RH,  is 1-0  along with a 0.75 ERA in his first two starts. In two starts against the Angels last season, Kennedy was 2-0 with an 0.64 ERA and get the nod again.

Angels are 0-5 in Tropeanos last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Angels are 3-10 in their last 13 vs. American League Central.Angels are 6-13 in their last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Angels are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas City.

Play on the KC Royals to win on the moneyline

Rockies RH Chad Bettis (1-0, 2.53 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (1-0, 1.59)

Gonzalez (1-0, 1.59) continues to pitch well  has picked up where he left off in last year's regular season. He took a no-decision a 3-2 loss to the New York Mets, allowing just one  run in 5 1/3 innings on six hits with some solid work.Gonzalez (4-0, 3.58) is unbeaten in five career starts against the Colorado Rockies. I'm betting the Rockies struggle against  them here again today.

Meanwhile, Right-hander Chad Bettis (1-0, 2.53) was solid for a second straight start, allowing judt one run on just four hits in a no-decision. QUOTE: "There's going to be a consistency to Chad's games," manager Bud Black told the Post. "I suspect Chad's starts, if he makes all 33 or 34, there will be less variability in his outings." END QUOTE: Bettis is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in four games -- two starts  vs the Nats and should supply stability in this spot.BETTIS is 9-1 UNDER ( vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game like th eNats, with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored.

COLORADO is 20-8 UNDER  L/28  in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last couple of seasons with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 15-3 UNDER L/18 after 6 or more consecutive home games with a combined average of 6.2 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 20-8 UNDER  L/28 against NL West opponents with a combined average of 7.7 rpg going on the board.

Under is 5-0 in Bettis' last 5 starts vs. National League East.Under is 3-1-1 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 8-1 in Bettis' last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.Under is 23-4-5 in Nationals last 32 during game 1 of a series.Under is 20-4-3 in Nationals last 27 vs. National League West.Under is 6-0-1 in Gonzalezs last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.Under is 9-3-2 in Nationals last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Play on the UNDER

Mets RH Zack Wheeler (2017: 3-7, 5.21 ERA) vs. Marlins LH Jarlin Garcia (0-0, 1.80)

After allowing two runs in 10 innings of relief, Garcia will be joining the Marlins rotation. He will be making his first big league start. A year ago, the 25-year-old paced the Marlins in appearances with 68 and is a viable MLB pitcher is must be respected on this value RL. Meanwhile, the Mets will recall Wheeler from Triple-A Las Vegas on Wednesday to make a spot start for Jason Vargas, who is rehabbing from hand surgery. He will face a under rated Marlins lineup, with three .300 hitters . Left fielder Derek Dietrich is hitting .327, rookie third baseman Brian Anderson is hitting .317, and second baseman Starlin Castro is batting .304.

Marlins are 21-9 in their last 30 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Mets are 1-4 in Wheelers last 5 road starts.

Manager MATTINGLY is 21-13  against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of MIAMI.

Play on Miami on the RL +1.5

Padres LH Joey Lucchesi (0-0, 2.79 ERA) vs. Rockies LH Tyler Anderson (0-0, 7.56)

Anderson the Rockies starter did not have  good opening day appearance, but bounced back in a big way in his last effort, , scattering four hits over six scoreless innings in a no decision. He looked great last time out, and get my support in this spot vs a inconsistent Fathers offense. Note: Anderson owns a 1-1 record and 1.50 ERA in four career starts against the Padres.

Padres are 41-84 in their last 125 road games.Padres are 22-46 in their last 68 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Padres are 9-23 in their last 32 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Padres are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Colorado.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline

Blue Jays RH Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 5.40 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Andrew Cashner (1-1, 4.09)

Cashner the Os starter today vs the Blue Jays has been hard to hit this season, allowing just  eight hits in 11 innings  so far this season, but unfortunately half of them have been home runs. He's a capable hurler and with just a little more luck could be a dominating factor for the Orioles this season. Cashner has recorded a  2.77 ERA in two career starts against the  Jays both in Toronto.

Meanwhile, the Jays starter  Sanchezs has seen is team go 1-5 in his last 6 starts vs. American League East and 1-5 in his L/6 starts overall. He struggled in his opening start but bounced back in 2nd effort, but this has not always been a good omen for the young man as the  Blue Jays are 0-4 in Sanchezs last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Blue Jays are also  0-4 in Sanchezs last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.

BALTIMORE is 24-9 L/33 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse dating back to last season.TORONTO is 10-26 L/37  against the money line in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games  dating back a few seasons.

MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (BALTIMORE) - off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite, a struggling team (38% or less ) playing a team with a winning record are 30-9 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles +1.5 runline

Braves RH Mike Foltynewicz (1-0, 2.61 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (1-1, 3.65)

Foltynewicz the Braves starter has looked good out of the gate this season, but according to my pitcher vs offense power rankings does not matchup well vs the Nationals batting order.  Last season the righty thrower  recorded  a 6.64 ERA in 3 games against them , and has a 3-2 record along  with a slightly bloated  5.06 ERA in seven career starts against Washington. I expect the Nationals will do some damage against him here today. Meanwhile, the Nats will return fire with Strasburg who has struggled in his first two trips the hill this season. He has been a slow starter of late, so this comes as no surprise to many. In 28 career starts against the Braves , he owns a  4.06 ERA lifetime   and garnered a   2-1  record along with a fairly hefty 5.16 ERA a season ago, and is susceptible to getting lit up again by a side that leads MLB in runs scored. With that said, I'm betting on this tilts combined score eclipsing this weak Total.

STRASBURG is 13-3 OVER  L/16 in home games in the first half of the season with a combined 10.3 rpg scored.

Over is 6-1-3 in Braves last 10 vs. National League East.Over is 5-2 in Foltynewiczs last 7 road starts.Over is 5-1-1 in Nationals last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-0 in Strasburgs last 5 home starts vs. Braves.Over is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings in Washington.

ATLANTA is 107-79 OVER  when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 9 rpg scored. ATLANTA is 31-18 OVER (+11.4 Units) in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams (WASHINGTON) - good NL offensive team ( 4.7 runs/game or more ) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 30-9 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Mariners LH Marco Gonzales (1-0, 4.26 ERA) vs. Royals RH Jakob Junis (1-0, 0.00)

Gonzales looked alright in his opening start, but was troubling were a pair of home runs he gave up at  AT&T Park,  which is troubling considering its reputation  for being unfriendly to HR  hitters. I know the Royals bats have been struggling, but I'm betting they get things rolling here tonight.  Meanwhile, Junus the Royals starter , is a capable hurler, and has faired well at Kaufman Stadium in his young career, but I'm not sold on him, on those limited data starts, and feel he is still susceptible to being lit up vs a batting order that my own pitcher vs batting order  power ranking suggest he does matchup well against. Seattle set a season high for runs in an 11-4 win at Minnesota on Saturday and had yesterday off, and will now be ready to reset their attack on fresh legs. Note: Mariners CF Dee Gordon (11-for-30) and 2B Robinson Cano (11-for-25) both are riding seven-game hitting streaks and Seattle SS Jean Segura is 11-for-25 during his six-game hitting streak.

SEATTLE is 24-12 OVER when playing with a day off over the last few seasons with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored.

Over is 4-0 in Gonzales' last 4 starts overall. Over is 4-1-2 in Mariners last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 12-3-1 in Mariners last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Over is 6-1-2 in Mariners last 9 road games.Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 overall.

MLB teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (SEATTLE) - good fielding team - turning 1.1 or more DP's/game on the season. against opponent terrible power team - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game on the season are 51-22 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Mets RH Matt Harvey (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Tanner Roark (1-0, 1.29)

Roark the Nats starter looked good in his first start, but it must be noted he was sub par at  Nationals Park last season   garnering a 6-6 record along with a slightly bloated, 5.04 ERA in 17 games (14 starts). Meanwhile, Harvey the NY Mets starter  despite of saying he's healthy again , is still a pitcher that has a lot to prove after  two dismal seasons where he went  9-17 and recorded a inflated 5.78 ERA.

Harvey is   0-3 with a 7.25 ERA in five games against the Nats the last two seasons. Harvery has seen 4 of his L/5 starts vs the Nats go over the total.

Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 3-0-2 in Harveys last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.Over is 12-5-3 in Harveys last 20 starts overall.

NY METS are 24-9 OVER  L/33 vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored. NY METS are 29-9 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 dating back to last season.

Play OVER

Mets LH Steven Matz (0-1, 6.75 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (1-0, 1.50)

Matz the Mets starter less than 100% healthy after elbow surgery last season pitched four innings in his season debut Sunday against St. Louis, giving up three runs on four hits (two homers) . In his current form he could easily get lit up again vs the Nationals. The Nationals in their one game vs a LHP starter this season cranked out 8 runs. Meanwhile, Gio Gonzalez the Nationals starter left off where he was last season, and pitched well in his opening assignment, but what's troubling is the fact that the Nationals have allowed 28 runs in their L/3 games with their bullpen recording a 6.86 ERA so far this season. Also GONZALEZ in his L/13 starts on the as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined 9.7 rpg scored.

Over is 19-6-1 in Mets last 26 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Gonzalezs last 5 home starts.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington.
Over is 3-1-2 in Gonzalezs last 6 home starts vs. Mets.


NY METS are 29-8 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 dating back to last season with a combined average of 11.2 rpg and 20-5 OVER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored.

Play OVER

Padres RH Luis Perdomo (0-1, 11.25 ERA) vs. Astros RH Lance McCullers Jr. (1-0, 3.38)

McCullers the Astros starting hurler was dominant in exhibition play, going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in six appearances (five starts), striking out  24 over 21 innings of top tier work, and I expect he will dominate again. The Astros have won 6 of their first 7 games, and according to my early season power rankings are the far superior side here, and deserve our backing on the RL/

HOUSTON is 29-11 L/40  against the money line after a 5 game span with an OBP of .375 or better over the last 2 seasons winning by an average 2.3 rpg.

The Houston Astros are 30-0 as a 200+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent winning SU by an average of 3.5 rpg.

MLB Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+100 to -190) (HOUSTON) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 17+ wins in last 25 games, team that had a winning record last season are 35-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 3.7 rpg .

Play on Houston to cover on the RL -1.5

Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (0-0, 1.50 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Brandon Woodruff (0-0, 5.40)


Hendricks was in top form in his season debut, allowing Miami to one run and four hits with five strikeouts over six innings of quality work and matches up well against the Bucks batting order. Hendricks is 6-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 15 career starts against the Brewers, including a 4-1 record a and stable 2.31 ERA in eight trips tot the hill in Miller Park.. Meanwhile,Woodruff has made two relief appearances for the Brewers so far this season , allowing two runs and six hits over 3 1/3 innings and is a quality hurler with deceiving stuff. He also matches up well against the Cubs. With that said, I expect both these pitchers and their bullpens to keep this game on the low side of the number, in chilly Wisconsin this evening.

Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 7-0 in Hendricks' last 7 starts vs. National League Central.Under is 11-2 in Hendricks' last 13 road starts.Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 7-1 in Woodruffs last 8 starts overall.Under is 12-3 in Hendricks' last 15 starts vs. Brewers


CHICAGO CUBS are 17-5 UNDER L/22 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored.

HENDRICKS is 11-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last couple of seasons with a combine average of 6.3 rpg scored. WOODRUFF is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in night games dating back to last season with a combined average score of 6 rpg scored.

These teams have gone under in 14 of the L/19 meetings in Milwaukee. Under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.Under is 33-16-3 in Brewers last 52 home games.

The Milwaukee Brewers have gone under 9 straight times by more than 3 rpg as a dog after a game in which they did not hit a home run.

Play UNDER

Royals LH Danny Duffy (0-1, 11.25 ERA) vs. Indians RH Carlos Carrasco (1-0, 7.94)

The Royals starting thrower Duffy posted an under performing  0-3 record with a 4.60 ERA in three meetings with Cleveland last season to drop to 2-6 lifetime against the club and is fae material here today. Meanwhile, Indians starting hurler Carrasco did well  versus Kansas City last season, recording  a 2-1 mark   and is  9-6 with a viable  3.58 ERA in 22 games and get my support on the RL.

The Cleveland Indians are 19-0 as a favorite of more than 190 when they are off a road game and facing a divisional opponent with fewer wins with the average margin of victory coming by 4.11 RPG.

MLB Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+100 to -190) (CLEVELAND) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 17+ wins in last 25 games, team that had a winning record last season are 35-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with the run differential clicking at 3.7 rpg.

Play on the Cleveland Indians to cover RL -1.5

MATCHUP: Diamondbacks LH Robbie Ray (1-0, 10.80 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (2017: 12-5, 5.11)

DBacks starter Ray did not look good in his opener as his current ERA would indicate and in his career vs the Cards is 0-2 with a bloated 6.52 ERA in three starts. Ray was dinged in the head by a Luke Voit line drive in the second inning on July 29 last season at Busch Stadium and needed three sutures to close the gash. Look for more trouble in this spot. He goes against a St.Louis side that scored 23 runs in their last 4 games,. Note: Over is 5-0 in Rays last 5 starts overall. Meanwhile, Cards starting pitcher,Wainwright despite a 12-5 record last season, and pitching well against Arizona in his career has recorded a 5.11 earned run average in his last campaign , allowing 185 runners in 123 1/3 innings and has recently been dealing with velocity issues because of nagging injuries. He goes against a DBacks offense that has averaged 5.8 rpg this season.

ST LOUIS is 25-12 OVER vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game with an average of 10.6 rpg sored.

MLB Home teams (ST LOUIS) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less ), after shutting out their opponent are 63-19 OVER L/21 seasons over for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

 Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Giants RH Johnny Cueto (0-0, 0.00)

Hernandez the Mariners starter today looked good allowing just two hits and two walks with four strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings vs Cleveland on Opening Day. The one-time Cy Young Award winner is 23-9 with a 2.92 ERA in 42 career interleague starts and 3-0 with a 1.86 record in four outings against the Giants and gets my support here in this spot as he goes against a team that had scored a total of 4 runs , and been shutout in back to back games before scoring 4 runs last last night in a 6-4 loss to Seattle in the opening game of this series. The Mariners are 4-0 in Hernandez's last 4 road starts. Mariners are 4-0 in Hernandez's last 4 starts vs. Giants.
Mariners are 20-6 in Hernandez's last 26 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Mariners are 13-4 in Hernandez's last 17 starts vs. National League West.

Giants are 4-10 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.

Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Cueto also looked very good in his lone start ,but did not look like he enjoyed pitching at AT&T Park last season as is evident by his 2-3 record and slightly bloated 4.60 ERA in 12 home starts last year, producing just one quality start in his last five trips to the hill.

Giants are 1-6 in Cueto's last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.

The Mariners have won 14 of the last 19 meetings between the teams and have the edge again on a value line.

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the moneyline

Indians RH Corey Kluber (0-1, 2.25 ERA) vs. Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (1-0, 0.00)

Cleveland top tier  starter today Kluber was a hard-luck loser on Opening Day, allowing two runs on just six hits and one walk over eight solid innings of work  in a 2-1 loss vs Seattle. Today I'm expecting he will be just as strong, but with a different won loss result. Note: Indians are 7-1 in Klubers last 8 road starts and the Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, Skaggs the Halos starter also did well on opening day, but according to my own data, and pitcher vs offense power rankings does not matchup well vs the Indians batting order and  is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in three career starts against Cleveland.Indians are 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Indians are 11-2 in their last 13 during game 3 of a series.

LA ANGELS are 11-24 /35 against the money line against AL Central opponents.

CLEVELAND is 13-1 L/14 against LA ANGELS over the last few seasons .

Play on Cleveland to win on the moneyl

Nationals RH A.J. Cole (2017: 3-5, 3.81 ERA) vs. Braves RH Julio Teheran (0-0, 6.35)


Braves starting hurler today Tehran finished the first season at Atlanta home park with a lowly 3-10 record along with a bloated 5.86 ERA in contrast to going 8-3 with a 3.14 ERA on the road. In his first start at home this season, the Braves saved Teheran butt, from another home loss, but he was charged with four runs over 5 2/3 innings and still did not look to be in groove here, and far from comfortable. Meanwhile , the Nationals starter Cole was 3-5 with a 3.81 ERA in eight starts and three relief appearances for the Nationals last season. He is 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA in 17 career starts and five games out of the bullpen.Cole, who won the fifth spot in the Nationals rotation, had a relief appearance against the Braves last season after making his major league debut at Atlanta in a 2015 start. Both outings went badly , as is evidenced by Cole's 15.75 ERA against the Braves. Today I'm expecting both these teams to tee off on the other pitching and for this score to go over the set total.


Washington has averaged 7.2 rpg so far this season, while their bullpen owns a bloated 6.75 ERA. Atlanta has averaged 7 rpg , this season.

Braves are 36-12 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season with a combined average of 10.8 rpg.

Over is 5-0-2 in Braves last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 37-13-1 in Braves last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 4-0-1 in Teherans last 5 home starts vs. Nationals.

Play OVER

Rays RH Chris Archer (0-0, 6.00 ERA) vs. Yankees LH Jordan Montgomery (2017: 9-7, 3.88) Rays starter today Archer in his first start this season served up four runs and six hits with six strikeouts in six innings against the Red Sox on Thursday. He was 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA in four starts against the Yankees last season and is fade material here today against the pinstripes. Meanwhile, the Yanks expected starter  Montgomery struck out 144 and allowed 140 hits in 155 1/3 innings during a viable rookie campaign in 2017. He was also  6-3 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 starts at Yankee Stadium where he thrived , including six innings of one-run work vs the Rays in late September. According to my pitcher vs team batting matches up very well against the Rays and get the nod here this afternoon. Rays are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

The Yankees won 12 of 19 meetings with the Rays last season, including eight of 10 in New York.Yankees are 20-6 in their last 26 home games.Yankees are 43-19 in their last 62 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

 CHRIS ARCHER is 3-16  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last few seasons.ARCHER is 11-22 L/33  against the money line against division opponents . NY YANKEES are 22-8  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last couple of seasons. 

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the moneyline

Rangers senior citizen right-hander Bartolo Colon will face  Oakland's  Andrew Triggs, in the series opener of this series.

As hurler Trigg's had surgery last season, and said to be looking pretty fresh . Prior to this operation he displayed some solid skills, and must be respected here tonight vs a Texas team struggling to find their offensive cohesiveness. Triggs has been amazing in his young career against the Rangers as is evident by  allowing just one earned run and five hits in 12 2/3 innings (0.71 ERA) in three outings, including two starts. Meanwhile, Colon, pudgier than ever, and looking completely out of shape takes to the hill for the Rangers, well past his prime. Colon is well respected, but might be better off as a pitching coach at this stage in his life. In his last MLB stint he registered a ugly 2-8 run with a nasty looking  8.14 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 14 starts . When considering the As explosive long ball batting order I suspect the fly ball pitcher will be batting practice participant in this event. Note: Colon will be backed by a tired bull pen. TEXAS is 2-13 L/15 against the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more over the last couple seasons.

Texas Manager BANISTER is 0-9  against the money line after 2 straight losses by 6 runs or more. ( Which just happened)

Rangers are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Athletics are 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Rangers are 0-8 in the last 8 meetings in Oakland.

Play on the Oakland As to win on the moneyline

MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (2017: 5-9, 3.77 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Taijuan Walker (9-9, 3.49)

Dodgers No. 5 starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is set to face D-backs' No. 4 Taijuan Walker on Monday.Walker was 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three regular-season starts against the Dodgers last year, winning twice at Dodger Stadium.
Meanwhile, Dodgers starting hurler Ryu, 5-9 last year, lost his only decision in two starts against the Diamondbacks. He gave up 11 hits and eight walks in 10 innings against them and was smashed for three homers in his only appearance in Chase Field, a 6-4 loss on Aug. 30, and according to my pitcher vs team offense data base does not matchup well vs the Arizona batting order. RYU is just 1-10 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last couple of  seasons and  is 2-8 L/10  against the money line against division opponents.Dodgers are 2-8 in Ryus last 10 starts during game 1 of a series and are 0-4 in Ryus last 4 starts vs. National League West.

Diamondbacks are 20-6 in their last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

The Dodgers have allowed 1,1. 0, and 0 runs in their first 4 games, but it must be noted that LAD Manager ROBERTS is 2-12 in his career against the money line in road games after allowing 3 runs or less 4 straight games.

Arizona has won the last six regular-season meetings with the Dodgers by a combined score of 40-13 and get the nod again in this tilt.

Play on the Arizona DBacks to win on the moneyline

Pirates RH Trevor Williams (2017: 7-9, 4.07 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Michael Fulmer (2017: 10-12, 3.83)

These teams (Pirates/Tigers) combined to use 15 pitchers  the before yesterdays cancelled game with Pittsburgh garnering a 13-10 win in - a 5-hour, 27-minute game marathon event. 

Todays weather will be fairly mild 42 F, and cloudy with sunny breaks, Winds from the

WNW 8 mphGusts: 14 mph  but conditions are suitable for a 9+ point output.

Over is 10-1 in Pirates last 11 vs. American League Central.Over is 9-4 in Pirates last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 17-5 in Tigers last 22 vs. National League Central.Over is 9-3-1 in Tigers last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Detroit.Over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings.

MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (DETROIT) - after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game against opponent after a combined score of 20 runs or more are 51-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.

Play OVER

Indians RH Trevor Bauer (2017: 17-9, 4.19 ERA) vs. Mariners RH Mike Leake (2017: 10-13, 3.92)

The Seattle Mariners after struggling through nagging injuries in spring training, started their season off with even more injuries as DH Nelson Cruz , and Starting catcher Mike Zunino  are now out for a while and I'm betting this will effect the cohesiveness of the team. QUOTE: "When I heard that, I wanted to throw up," Mariners manager Scott Servais said. "I really don't know any other way to put it. Our club has just battled through a bunch of nagging injuries in spring training and early in the season." END QUOTE:

Cleveland starting pitcher Bauer  owns a 2.25 ERA in four career starts  at Safeco Field and gets the nod vs Seattle starter Leake, who despite of being 3-1 after being acquired by the Mariners last season, suffered that lone loss vs Seattle.

CLEVELAND is 28-14 L/42  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125. CLEVELAND is 41-17   against the money line in road games after a win which was the case yesterday.

Indians are 11-4 in Bauers last 15 starts. Indians are 17-6 in their last 23 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Mariners are 4-9 in their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.

MLB Home teams (SEATTLE) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 11+ losses in last 15 games against opponent first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 20+ wins in last 30 games are 6-38 L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 87% for bettors on the blind.

Play on Cleveland to win on the moneyline

 Indians RH Carlos Carrasco (2017: 18-6, 3.29 ERA) vs. Mariners LH James Paxton (2017: 12-5, 2.98)

Indians starter today Carrasco went 18-6 with a 3.29 ERA last season when he tied for the American League lead in victories and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. He's a quality hurler that deserves our respect in this spot. The Venezuelan was 11-2 with a 2.65 ERA on the road in 2017.  I know his pitching opponent Paxton is also a top quality hurler, but the Indians are a good fastball hitting team, and against the fire baller  Paxton should not be over whelmed. PAXTON is 0-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.37 and a WHIP of 1.406.

Cleveland lost 2-1 to Seattle yesterday, but it must be noted that SEATTLE is just 17-30  against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less and are 2-8 L/10 under the same perimeters. Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Mariners are 1-4 in Paxtons last 5 starts.Road team is 5-0 in umpires Marquezs last 5 Saturday games behind home plate vs. Seattle.Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 Saturday games with Marquez behind home plate.Indians are 40-18 in Carrascos last 58 starts.Indians are 23-6 in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB Home teams (SEATTLE) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 11+ losses in last 15 games against opponent first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 20+ wins in last 30 games are 6-37 L/21 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland Indians to win on the moneyline

Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (2017: 2-6, 4.55 ERA) vs. Athletics LH Sean Manaea (2017: 12-10, 4.37)

Injury prone Tyler Skaggs starts for the Angels tonight vs their hosts the Oakland As. Last season when he came off the disabled list he registered just one win in 11 starts. The kids got great stuff and that's why the Halos stick with him, but he just can't seem to get it all together or garner run support when he does.  Skaggs has never beaten the Athletics - as he has recorded a  0-4 record along  with a  bloated 6.26 ERA in five career meetings and is fade material vs Billy Beans under rated squad in this spot. Meanwhile, the As starter Manaea had a strong spring, going 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 innings  of quality work. He's very hard on LH hitters, who have hit just .207 against him in his career, and has been solid at  home in the Coliseum, as is evident by recording a 11-6 mark along with a solid 3.55 ERA in 27 games (26 starts). Manaea beat the Angles  3-1 last September throwing six innings of shutout ball,  while allowing five just  hits. He gets my support .

OAKLAND is 18-7 L/25  against the money line in home games after a win by 2 runs or less  dating back to last season.Angels are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Athletics are 10-2 in their last 12 home games.

Play on Oakland to win on the moneyline

Pirates RH Ivan Nova (2017: 11-14, 4.14 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Jordan Zimmermann (2017: 8-13, 6.08)

Zimmermann has  struggled  during his first two seasons in Detroit  . He  recorded a  8-13 record and 6.08 ERA last season and in his last spring training outing gave up four runs on nine hits in five innings against Philadelphia . I'm betting the Pirates knock him around again this afternoon. Meanwhile, Pirates starter today Ivan Nova, went 11-14 with a 4.14 ERA last season and did not fair well vs Motown  going 0-3  and in his career NOVA is 0-4 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 7.63 and a WHIP of 1.859. Once again, in retaliatory fashion I'm betting that Nova also gets lit up in a game that is projected by me to go over the number.

ZIMMERMANN team when he starts  is 22-9 OVER  when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 11 rpg scored.ZIMMERMANN is 15-3 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 12.3 rpg going on the score board.

Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Detroit.Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.Over is 9-1 in Pirates last 10 vs. American League Central.

Temps in Detroit today are supposed to be 45 degrees, and partly sunny. It should be comfortable and conducive to batters being loose enough to rev things up.

Play OVER

Indians RH Corey Kluber (2017: 18-4, 2.25 ERA) vs. Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (2017: 6-5, 4.36)


I'm recommending we lay a little lumber right out of the gate here on opening day. But believe me when I say I won't be making a habit of playing more than -150 chalk on the money-line during this MLB campaign.

Indians Cy Young award winner Kluber had a very strong spring training going 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA in five starts while striking out 25 over 19 innings of top tier work and gets the nod over Seattle veteran Felix Hernandez here in opening day action.KLUBER is 3-1 when starting against SEATTLE in his career with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.967.

The Indians won four of the six meetings last season, including two of three in Seattle.

Dating back to last season the Indians are 22-5 in their last 27 during game 1 of a series.Indians are 14-2 in Klubers last 16 starts during game 1 of a series.
Indians are 7-0 in Klubers last 7 road starts.


MLB Home teams (SEATTLE) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 11+ losses in last 15 games against opponent first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 20+ wins in last 30 games are 37-6 L/21 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the moneyline ( 0.5 unit selection)

Giants LH Ty Blach (2017: 8-12, 4.78 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (2017: 18-4, 2.31)

Super star hurler Kershaw makes his eighth consecutive Opening Day start, setting a franchise record. He is 22-9 with a 1.60 ERA in 40 career starts against the Giants his best against any team in MLB and looks to be the far superior choice here today in the opener. SF starter Blach was 2-7 with a 5.02 ERA after the All-Star break last season and finished 3-7 with a 5.55 mark on the road.Blach average of 4.01 strikeouts per nine innings was the lowest in the Majors last season. This is a pitching mismatch of mammoth proportions , favoring the Dodgers.

MLB Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+100 to -190) (LA DODGERS) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 17+ wins in last 25 games, team that had a winning record last season are 32-8 on the RL L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the RL -1.5

Twins RH Jake Odorizzi (2017: 10-8, 4.14 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (2017: 13-9, 4.24)

Odorizzi will get the call on Opening Day for the first time in his career after being acquired by the Twins in a trade with the Rays. Odorizzi has a great deal  of experience vs. the O's from his AL East days, going 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA vs. them in '17 and he gets my attention and money here today. Meanwhile, Orioles starter Bundy will make his first career Opening Day start against the Twins at Camden Yards. He was regarded highly as the season progressed last season, and finally ended up the ace of the staff, despite of not looking all that great late in the season, as is evident by a 7.54 ERA in his L/3 starts . BUNDY is 0-2 when starting against MINNESOTA in his career with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.333,serving up a total of eight runs on 11 hits and five walks in just 12 innings .Orioles are 1-5 in Bundys last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.

Orioles are 9-19 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

MINNESOTA is 34-24 L/58 against the money line in road games against right-handed starters and is  23-17 l/40  against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 .

Minnesota won five of the seven meetings last season.Twins are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Baltimore.

MLB Home teams (BALTIMORE) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 9+ losses in last 12 games, marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games are  13-32 L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Minnesota to win on the moneyline

Astros RH Lance McCullers Jr. (1-0, 2.95 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Yu Darvish (2-1, 4.15)

Darvish the Dodgers starter for game 7  has served up seven homers in 24 2/3 career postseason innings, which includes his tenure with Texas and against this formidable long ball offense is very susceptible. I liked the Astros in game 6 and I'm coming right back tonight with them again.Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Dodgers are 0-5 in Darvishs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

The Astros starter  McCullers Jr.s  is 8-1 in his last 9 starts with 4 days of rest.

Road team is 8-0 in home plate  Wegners last 8 games behind home plate.

In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams which post a win order of WLLWLW through six games irrespective of site (such as the Los Angeles Dodgers) have a 0-4 Game 7 record.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

World Series - Game 6 - Best of 7 -

The Houston Astros hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 13-runs-12 in 10 innings and now I'm betting they take the World Series here tonight in Los Angeles. Game 6 will go to Motown's Verlander, who's 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA in five games (four starts) this postseason. He allowed three runs on two homers in six innings in Game 2. He's 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) since joining Houston and is the guy I'm backing here.

 VERLANDER team when he starts 18-3 L/21  against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse in his career.HOUSTON is 16-4 L/20  against the money line in road games after scoring 9 runs or more.LA DODGERS are 2-7 L/9  against the money line after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs.HOUSTON is 24-9 L/33  against the money line against NL West opponents.

NOTE:  HOU leads 3-2-Trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Los Angeles Dodgers have an MLB/NBA/NHL-worst 0-5 Game 6 record and a 0-5 series record . The Los Angeles Dodgers and their predecessor entity, the Brooklyn Dodgers, have a combined 0-8 series record upon trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Dodgers  - allowing 4 or less runs/game on the season (NL), after allowing 10 runs or more are 10-34  L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Last night I watched the Dodgers find a way past the Astros. I wanted to get a better feel of what to expect before pulling the trigger on any game in  this series. Tonight I'm ready to fire off my first shot . It must be noted that in four appearances (three starts) in this postseason, Verlander the Astros starter  vs the Dodgers this evening owns  a 1.46 ERA over 24 2/3 innings, striking out 24 with six walks. Each  time  the veteran hurler Verlander has gone to the hill this October, the Astros have come away with a victory and I'm betting on nothing changing tonight.

HOUSTON is 12-3  against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season .VERLANDER team record is 12-5  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.HOUSTON is 42-19 L/61  against the money line in an inter-league game .  Astros HC HINCH is 21-8 L/29  against the money line against NL West opponents.

MLB teams like the Dodgers  - good NL offensive team (4.7 runs or more /game) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season are just 36-69 since 1997 for a go against conversion rate of 665 for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Yankees RH Luis Severino (1-0, 5.56 ERA) vs. Astros RH Justin Verlander (3-0, 2.04)

I'm betting the Astros will  stay alive one more day and force a decisive Game 7 of the AL Championship Series when they host the New York Yankees in Game 6 on Friday.

The Astros  new ace  Justin Verlander  looked good when facing the Yankees and Severino in Game 2 as he  earned the victory in a complete game.  That was the veteran rightys third win in as many 2017 postseason outings and he's not finished yet. Verlander is 8-0 with a 1.39 ERA in eight appearances since arriving in a trade from the Detroit Tigers on Aug. 31 and expect his record to stay untarnished after this tilt is said and done.

VERLANDER when he starts has seen his team go   24-4   against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season  in his career.HOUSTON is 17-5   against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better this season.

NY YANKEES are 8-18   against the money line in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season and 19-32  against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like Houston - good team, outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season against opponent top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season are 149-71 L/5 seasons for conversion rate of 60% for bettors.

MLB Road teams like the Yankees - good offensive team - scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 1 run or less are 58-94 for a go against conversion  rate of  61% for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline

The Cubs will be primed and motivated to get a much needed win here , and I'm betting we see them at their very best in game 3 of this NL series vs the Dodgers. I know both sides have been operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, but in this critical game, the ghosts of Wrigely will be out in full force to help out the defending champions notch a win.

The Dodgers have looked good in the first two games of this this National league finals series, and overall in the play offs as  their defense and  pitching are in top form. However in the past this has not been a guarantee that they will continue to produce positive results as is evident by their ,  6-17 mark  against the money line in road games after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games.  DODGERS are also just 4-11 L/15 against the money line in road games after a 5 game span with an OBP of .375 or better and are  4-13 L/17 against the money line in road games after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs.

A lot has been made of the fact that the Cubs bats have been ice cold of late , but it must be noted that the LA DODGERS are just 22-23  against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. There also long term league wide trends that tell us these types of struggling offenses have done well against the moneyline in the past.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the Cubs - ice cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are actually good bets going 35-6 over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the Cubs - ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  0.800 or better  over his last 3 starts are 43-15 over the L/20 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Clayton Kershaw the ace of the Dodgers staff struggled down the stretch this season, because of back issues, and I don't think he is 100% yet. Kershaw also has a history of struggling in the play offs in the past, and in my opinion is not a strong a favorite as the lines-makers are making him here in game 1. The Dodgers southpaw hurler gave up back-to-back home runs in the seventh inning of his Game 1 start vs. Arizona, and all told, he has a 21.86 ERA in the seventh inning of postseason games. Considering the defending World Series Champion Cubs have done their best work against LHP this season averaging 5.5 rpg a on a 2.71 ERA , they must not be underestimated here as big underdogs. Meanwhile, Jose Quintana the Cubbies starter has been in top form of late, recording a 1.86 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill,

QUINTANA team when he starts  is 30-11 L/41  against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game.CHICAGO CUBS are 17-6  against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

Cubs are 7-0 in Quintanas last 7 starts.Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Cubs are 14-3 in their last 17 during game 1 of a series.Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 playoff road games.Dodgers are 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Dodgers are 5-14 in their last 19 League Championship games.

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like the Dodgers - good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season, after 2 straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base are 24-43 L/5 seasons for a 64% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Keuchel the Astros starter is 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA over six career starts against the Yankees, In his one  postseason start against the Yankees, Keuchel pitched six superb shutout innings with seven strikeouts in the 2015 AL wild-card game, a 3-0 Astros victory at Yankee Stadium.On May 11, he limited the Yankees to five hits, one walk and one unearned run with nine strikeouts over six innings in a 3-2 win.  Meanwhile, Tanaka the Yankees starter has been hos worst on the road this season as is evident by a 4-7 record along with a bloated  6.48 ERA over 15 road starts in 2017. He is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA over four career starts against Houston. From a starting pitcher perspective the Astros must be respected here, and backed on the money-line.

KEUCHEL team when he starts is 13-3 L/16 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game .TANAKA is 0-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 8.86 and a WHIP of 1.701.Astros are 5-1 in Keuchels last 6 starts vs. Yankees.

Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 League Championship games and are 0-4 in their last 4 League Championship road games.Yankees are 2-5 in Tanakas last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 playoff home games.Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 League Championship games.

NY YANKEES are 11-23 L/33  against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.HOUSTON is 81-38   against the money line against right-handed starters this season.HOUSTON is 23-8  against the money line after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span this season.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Yankees - good offensive team (5.1 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or better ) (AL), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are just 11-41 for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like the Yankees - top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season are 14-52 over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Astros RH Brad Peacock (13-2, 3.00 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Doug Fister (5-9, 4.88)

Fister the Red Sox starter today vs the Astros enters Game 3 with a 4-1 career record and 1.78 ERA in eight postseason starts, and I'm expecting him to be in good form here again and slow down the hot bats of the Astros. Meanwhile, the Stros starter Peacock enters this tilt having  held his last seven opponents to two or fewer earned runs .With the way the struggling offense of the BoSox is operating at the moment, I'm betting on them having a less than favorable output in this spot.

Under is 6-1 in Fisters last 7 starts overall.Under is 28-12-2 in Red Sox last 42 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-0-1 in Fisters last 7 home starts.Under is 20-8 in Red Sox last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 8-2 in Astros last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-1 in Peacocks last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.

Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 like the Astros - in a playoff game, having won 15 or more of their last 20 games are 32-9 UNDER dating back 20 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 like the Astors - very good AL offensive team (5.4  or more runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less ), with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80% are 32-8 UNDER dating back 20 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Cubs LH Jon Lester (13-8, 4.33 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 2.96)

Lester finished his season in top form as is evident by a  5-1 record in September and is 9-7 in play off action along with a stingy 2.63 ERA in 22 career appearances (19 starts). This season he has been in good form vs the Nationals and owns a solid 2.84 ERA in two no-decisions. Meanwhile, Gonzalez   struggled down the stretch, losing four of his last six starts.

The defending World Series champs came away the victory in game 1 of this NL series, and I'm betting they get the win here again today over the Nationals. Watching both teams, its become apparent to me  that the Cubs look calm cool and calculated, while their seems to be an edge or nervousness surrounding the Nationals as they nervously try to avoid their forth straight first round elimination.

Nationals are 3-8 in their last 11 Divisional Playoff games.Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff home games.Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Nationals are 4-13 in Gonzalezs last 17 starts vs. National League Central.Nationals are 0-4 in Gonzalezs last 4 starts vs. Cubs.

Cubs are 8-1 in Lesters last 9 starts vs. National League East.Cubs are 7-2 in Lesters last 9 road starts.Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Cubs are 20-8 in Lesters last 28 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff road games.Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff games.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

The Cubs enter this game batting under the Mendoza line on the road this season, averaging just 4.8 rpg on a .247 BA. With that said, I'm betting their offensive output against Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg will be muted . The Nats starter is in top form, and registered a stingy 1.93 ERA in his L/3 starts and is 7-2 at home this season along with a stable 2.85 ERA. Meanwhile, The Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is also in red hot form and has registered a miniscule 0.96 ERA in his L/3 starts and owns a viable 2.83 ERA in away tilts. It must be noted that the Nationals have done their least damage vs RHP this season, batting just .266 and should once again find putting runners in scoring position a difficult prospect.Considering both bullpens are stable, it will not be a hard decision to recommend we take an under stance here.


HENDRICKS is 8-1 UNDER after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing this season with a combined average of 5.6 rpg scored.

HENDRICKS is 11-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last couple of seasons with a combined average of 5 rpg going on the board. STRASBURG is 9-1 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season with aa combined average score of 6.5 rpg going on the board.

Under is 20-3-4 in Nationals last 27 during game 1 of a series.

Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Rockies RH Jon Gray (10-4, 3.67 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20)

Colorado's starting hurler Gray became a key part of the rotation after the All-Star break while going 8-4 with a 3.65 ERA over 15 starts, and allowed a total of just seven runs in 30 innings of quality work in his last five appearances and struck out 10 batters  to win at Arizona on June 30 and is more than capable of shocking the DBacks tonight. Meanwhile, Arizona's ace Greinke looked fatigued to me towards the end of the season, and   was hammered in his last home start against Miami on Sept. 22 as he allowed eight runs in just four innings. I know the Rockies are underdogs here, but I'm betting they matchup well against Greinke and deliver a value line winner behind what can be an explosive offense.

Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Greinkes last 5 home starts vs. Rockies.

GRAY is 5-0  against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.Rockies are 4-0 in Grays last 4 road starts.Rockies are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Diamondbacks are 2-7 in their last 9 playoff games.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

American League Wild Card Game

Minnesota's Santana, the ace of Minnesota's staff, will make his ninth career postseason appearance and third start in the AL Wild Card Game. He finished the year strong with a 3.31 ERA in six September starts. The Twins starter struck  out 230 batters over 193 1/3 innings this season and will be a hand full for the Yankees .Meanwhile, Severino will be making his first career postseason appearance at any level in Tuesday's AL Wild Card Game for the Yankees, after going 9-2 with a 2.28 ERA since the break. The big thrower, has a lot of stamina and can go deep into games, as was evident   by his velocity late into games, throwing more 100-plus mph fastballs after the seventh inning than any other starter.

With  two quality hurlers on the mound, and sudden death implications, I expect defense and pitching and a mistake free mentality to make for  a low scoring affair.

SANTANA is 16-4 UNDER  L/20  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record  with a combined average of 6 rpg gong on the scoreboard. NYY Manager GIRARDI is 19-7 L/26 UNDER    in home games in October games with a combined average of 7.1 rpg scored.

Under is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 playoff home games.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 home games.

These teams have gone under in 5 of 6 meetings this season.

MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 like Yankees - below average hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better) -AL, in October games are 58-23 UNDER for a 72% conversion rate for bettors dating back 20 seasons.

Play UNDER  1 unit reg selection

Phillies rookie Nick Pivetta (7-10, 6.26 ERA) goes to the hill to face the Mets here this afternoon . Pivetta is 1-1 with a 6.48 ERA, surrendering 18 hits to Mets batters in 16 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, the  Mets will respond with  Noah Syndergaard (1-2, 3.18 ERA) at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia in Sunday afternoon's season finale.He has pitched well against the Phillies, as is evident by a 4-1  career record and a stingy 1.89 ERA against them. This is an important start for Syndergaard as will have direct implications for his future standing with the Mets. I'm recommending we back his motivational intentions today.

NY METS are 8-0  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse this season and 15-4  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.40 or worse this season.

The Mets are 7-2 in Philadelphia this season.

Play on the NY Mets to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Diamondbacks RH Taijuan Walker (9-9, 3.54 ERA) vs. Royals RH Jake Junis (8-3, 4.39)

KC sends Rookie Jake Junis to hill to start for them today. He is 8-3 with a 4.39 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings. He lost his previous start to the New York Yankees, ending an impressive personal six-game winning streak.Junis is 2-0 with a 3.49 ERA in six starts and two relief appearances this year at Kauffman Stadium and is a viable  pitcher to back here against a Arizona Dbacks side that has already clinched a wild card birth and looking ahead to post season play. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent, Walker has been on the wrong end of back-to-back starts to San Francisco and Miami, working a total of 8 2/3 innings, but getting beaten around for early exits. Walker is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two career starts against the Royals.

Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague road games.Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.Royals are 4-0 in Junis' last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.Royals are 9-4 in their last 13 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.Royals are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Diamondbacks are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.

KANSAS CITY is 12-5  against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.JUNIS when he starts for the Royals has seen his team go  7-1  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.

Play on the KC Royals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Brewers RH Chase Anderson (11-4, 2.81 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH John Gant (0-0, 3.65)

Anderson the Brewers starter tonight lost to the Chicago Cubs in his last appearance  but won each of his previous four decisions and remains a viable candidate to deliver a winning ticket tonight. With Milwaukee still having a chance of catching the Colorado Rockies for the second National League wild-card spot I expect he will get some motivated support. Meanwhile, also considering the Cardinals are now deflated after  their 11th-inning, 2-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Thursday night eliminated them from the play off race, I expect the Brewers have a edge based on motivation. With that said, I expect the Brewers to beat up on Cardinals'  starter John Gant, who is making only his second start since he was recalled from Triple-A Memphis at the start of September.

Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.Cardinals are 9-26 in their last 35 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Brewers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

 The Cardinals have lost four of their last five, scoring two or fewer runs three times over that stretch and one more loss would put them out of any play off contention. I know Chicago has clinched their spot in post season play, but would love nothing more than to finish off their opponents hopes in killer fashion which is repeatedly exhibited by championship teams. I expect some of the Cubs young talent to see time tonight, and to want to make a mark, so I don't expect the Cubs to lay down and just the let the desperate Cards roll over them.

It must also be noted that Cubs starter Hendricks who has been very sharp of late is in line to start the Cubs’ playoff opener, and will be primed to make an impression on his coaching staff tonight with a top notch effort . He is 4-4 with a 2.25 ERA in his last eight apperances – all quality starts – and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 12 trips to the hill since coming off the disabled list July 24.

Meanwhile, cards starter Lynn has only one victory over his last nine starts and  off a very ugly effort last time out, and owns a 13.03 ERA in his L/3 overall. He looked fatigued in the above mentioned outing, which is not a good omen for his teams chances at staying alive after tonight. Lynn has seen his team lose 7 straight vs the Cubs when he starts.

Cardinals are 1-7 in Lynns last 8 starts overall.

Cubs are 22-5 in their last 27 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Cubs are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline

The Houston's Astros bats are on fire , as is evident by scoring 25 runs in their L/2 games. The way they are hitting I don't think it matters which pitcher they go against. Today against Nick Martinez,  who makes his  fourth start since rejoining the rotation this month, I'm betting the Astros explode again vs a 3-7 pitcher with a  5.42 ERA. Martinez is 0-3 over his past four starts with a 4.63 ERA and a .230/.264/.425/.689 opponents' slash line. Meanwhile, a relaxed Texas side playing as spoilers will primed to bang out some hits and runs vs a hurler in Verlander that they have done well against. Verlander is 1-1 with a slightly bloated 5.54 ERA against Texas this season, both starts coming with Detroit.

HOUSTON is 12-3 OVER  L/15  in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 12.5 rpg going on the board.TEXAS is 15-4 OVER  L/19 in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over with a combined average of 12.5 rpg going on the scoreboard. TEXAS is 9-1 OVER  after scoring 4 runs or less 4 straight games with aa combined average of 12.2 rpg scored. HOUSTON is 11-2 OVER  in road games after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 12.7 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 like the Rangers - after 2 straight losses by 6 runs or more against opponent after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games are 74-38 OVER dating back 20 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for over bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

Padres LH Travis Wood (4-6, 6.55 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Yu Darvish (9-12, 3.96)


Yu Darvish the Dodgers hurler tonight is a fine pitcher ,but has not had success in these types of situations in the recent past. DARVISH is 4-9 against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons and is 1-5 against the money line in home games in the second half of the season this season.DARVISH team is 7-10 when he starts against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season and is 3-7 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season.Dodgers are 1-4 in Darvishs last 5 starts.SAN DIEGO is 15-7 against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season this season.


The Dodgers have won 3 of their L/4 but recently lost 20 of 25 games, and look like they may have exerted to much energy early on in the season and now running out of gas. I know San Diego does not instill confidence in bettors but they have pulled of big underdog wins in the past and are a value play again here this evening.

Abbots Manager GREEN is 20-15 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. .620 or better )

Play on the San Diego Padres to win on the moneyline

Houston enters this game with their pitching in defense in top form , having allowed a total of 10 runs in their L/6 games. Meanwhile, the LA Angles have scored a total of 15 runs in their L/6 and once again look like offensive production will be curtailed as they face Astros starter McCullers who has pitched his best at home this season going 4-0 in 8 starts along with a stable 2.87 ERA. He will also be well rested after being off since Sept 6 , recouping from fatigue.McCullers, has allowed only one unearned run over 13 2/3 innings in two starts versus the Angels this season and should once again be solid and fresh in this spot.Meanwhile, the Angels starter Skaggs has been in strong form of late as his last three starts would indicate, posting a 2.45 ERA. I'm betting bot these hurlers and their bullpens do enough to help keep this contest from eclipsing the total.

Under is 5-0 in Skaggs' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 overall.Under is 17-5 in McCullers Jr.s last 22 home starts.Under is 6-0 in McCullers Jr.s last 6 starts vs. Angels.Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Houston.

MCCULLERS JR. is 17-4 UNDER L/21   vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game dating back to last season with a combined average of 5.9 rpg going on the board. MCCULLERS JR. is 15-4 UNDER  L/19 with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored. LA ANGELS are 18-5 UNDER after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season, with a combined average of 6.7 rpg getting scored.MCCULLERS JR. is 9-1 UNDER as a home favorite of -125 to -175 dting back last season with a combined average of 5.2 rpg scored.

The Angels are 0-15-1 UNDER by an average of 4.19 rpg  in the last game of a series as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Houston Right-hander Charlie Morton (12-7, 3.75 ERA) will start for the Astros this Saturday afternoon. Morton is 2-0 with a 3.74 ERA in four career starts against the Angels, including two this season where in  10 combined innings  allowed just  three runs on nine hits including registering eight strikeouts. Morton is a capable hurler who can hold a struggling Halos group to a limited offensive out put. Overall Houston pitching has allowed a total of 8 runs in their L/5 games overall , with all 5 staying under the total Note: LAA has scored just 13 runs in their L/ 5 games (2.6 rpg)  Meanwhile, Right-hander Bud Norris (2-5, 4.53 ERA) will make just his second start of the season for the Angels. Norris,has done a majority of his work as the closer  this season, and started against the Texas Rangers on Sept. 15 allowing one hit over two scoreless innings.Norris has 19 saves this season and is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in seven games (one start) against Houston, and matches up well against a Astros batting order that has scored just 11 runs in their L/4 games.

MORTON in his L/22  in home games /day games  has seen a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored with 17 of those games staying under the total.LA ANGELS are 12-1 UNDER   after 3 or more consecutive losses this season with the combined average clicking in at 5.7 rpg.LA ANGELS are 34-17 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. These teams have gone under in 7 of their L/9 in Houston.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

 Martinez the Rangers starter has not notched a single win in his past nine outings, allowing 28 earned runs in 35 innings. He is 0-3 over the stretch that dates back to June 25 and is fade material here tonight in Oakland against the As.  It must be noted that the Rangers are 0-13 L/13 when Nick Martinez starts on the road when they lost in his last start.
Rangers are also 0-6 in Martinezs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Athletics are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.Athletics are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.Rangers are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Oakland.

TEXAS is 4-12 against the money line vs. lower tier  speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season. OAKLAND is 8-2 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.OAKLAND is 9-3 against the money line in home games after allowing 2 runs or less this season.

Right now the As are playing their best ball of the season, and have won 10 of their L/13 including 4 in a row, and here tonight against a struggling pitcher have the edge.

Play on the Oakland A's to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Tanner Roark of the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves' R.A. Dickey, are two pitchers operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum. Roark is 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 outings since the All-Star break.Roark is also  6-2 with a 2.80 ERA in his career against Atlanta and  beat them in Washington on Sept. 14, when he allowed two runs and four hits  Meanwhile,  the Braves veteran knuckleballer Dickey is 0-2 with a 10.50 ERA in three starts this month. Opponents have batted .333 in his past six trips to the hill, and looks to be in trouble vs a explosive Nationals batting order tonight.Dickey is 0-2 with a 5.92 ERA in four starts against Washington this year and 4-9 with a 4.17 ERA in 20 career games (18 starts) vs. the Nationals.

With the Nationals remaining consistent and on a 3 game win streak, Atlanta looks a little lost and have lost 4 straight. Considering the pitching matchup and both teams current form I am recommending we take the Nationals in this spot play.

ATLANTA is 1-11 L/12 against the money line in home games after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span.ATLANTA is 0-10 L/10 against the money line in home games after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Braves - cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 11-45 over the last 5 seasons for a go against  80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Nationals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Right-hander Luke Weaver (6-1, 1.89 ERA) will start for St. Louis on Wednesday.   Weaver is 5-0  in his L/5 starts has recorded a 1.15 ERA, having walked four and struck out 42.Cincinnati counters with right-hander Rookie Davis, a 24-year-old rookie who rejoined the rotation after Triple-A Louisville's season ended. He's a solid pitcher that still has some maturing to do and despite of not looking all that good in limited MLB action is still respected by his own organization. I expect both hurlers to do enough to help keep this tilt on the low side of the number.

Under is 4-1-1 in Weavers last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 overall.Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 9-1 in umpire Segals last 10 games behind home plate.

The Cardinals have gone under 13 straight times as a road favorite of more than 140 after a game in which they used five-plus pitchers and it is not a series opener with a combined score of 4.76 rpg going on the board with highest total run count during that span clicking in 7 combined runs!

Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Athletics RH Daniel Gossett (4-9, 5.02 ERA) vs. Tigers LH Chad Bell (0-3, 6.42)

The Tigers starting hurler Bell(0-3, 6.42 ERA)  has struggled since joining the Detroit rotation in September. He has allowed 13 runs in 12 innings in three starts in September, and he lasted just 3 1/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox on Thursday, allowing six runs and nine hits in 3 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, Daniel Gossett (4-9, 5.02 ERA) will go to the hill for the As. The righty hurler  has shown a lot of improvement against two of the majors' best offensive teams in his last couple of appearances.Gossett held the Houston Astros to one run on six hits and struck out seven on Sept. 9 for his fourth victory, then allowed three runs and five hits in 5 1/3 innings at Boston on Thursday and being that he is in very good form at the moment while Bell is not the Athletics have the starting pitcher edge.

Tigers are 2-11 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Tigers are 7-20 in their last 27 vs. American League West.Athletics are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

DETROIT is 27-43  against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season and is 9-22   against the money line against AL West opponents this season.OAKLAND is 18-11   against the money line against AL Central opponents this season.

Play on the Oakland As to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Pittsburgh is now completely deflated and just playing out the string, after just getting swept by the Reds, and losing yesterday in the opener of this series the Brewers for their 5th straight loss which includes being defeated in 11 of the L/12 games. Tonight I expect more of the same negative results from the Pirates , as they face the Milwaukee Brewers Chase Anderson (10-3, 2.88 ERA) who beat the Pirates last week 8-2, and matches up well against their batting order.Anderson is 5-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 10 career starts against the Pirates. This season, he is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two starts vs. Pittsburgh. Anderson faces  against off against the Pirates Trevor Williams (6-8, 4.26 ERA) who has lost 4 of his L/5 decisions.

MILWAUKEE is 12-3   against the money line in road games after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less this season, which happened last time out beating the Pirates by a 3-0 count. MILWAUKEE is 11-4   against the money line in road games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less this season. MILWAUKEE is 9-3  against the money line in road games after allowing 1 run or less this season.PITTSBURGH is 4-18   against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games this season.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Pirates - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or less) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start are a long term bad bet 77-192 for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection ( LATE STEAM)

Dbacks starting hurler today Walker owns the 10th-best ERA road mark in the majors (2.71) and I'm betting on him once again being solid on the hill in the visitors role vs a Giants team that has been offensively challenged all season long. Meanwhile, SFO Stratton (2-3, 4.07) enters Sunday's contest well rested. He has pitched a total of only 4 1/3 innings in two September starts, and should be strong and fresh for this start.  His issues today will come via run support, as was the case yesterday when the Giants were shutout.

Under is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 9-4 in Giants last 13 home games.Under is 8-3 in Giants last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Under is 5-1 inumpire Hobergs last 6 games behind home plate.

WALKER is 14-5 UNDER  L/19 vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7 rpg going on the board.ARIZONA is 17-8 UNDER    in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season with a combined average of 7.1 rpg getting scored.SAN FRANCISCO is 15-3 UNDER  after being shut out in a loss to a division rival with a combined average of 5.1 rpg going on the board.SAN FRANCISCO is 16-4 UNDER   in home games after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival this season with a combined 6.1 rpg getting scored.

Play on the UNDER

Colorados Anderson (4-5, 5.75) will oppose the Padres Jordan Lyles (1-2, 6.75), who spent just over 3 1/2 years with the Rockies before they released him Aug. 1.

Needless to say Lyles would love to beat his old team today in a place he is used to pitching in.

I''m betting he has a good chance at helping his team notch the underdog win vs a lineup he is very familiar with.

I know San Diego has lost 4 straight , including yesterday opening game in this series, by a 6-1 count  but they have been a positive  bet in the past, under these circumstances as they are 15-5  against the money line after 4 or more consecutive losses. Also Colorado is a ugly  0-9 L/9 off a home win in which they had multiple multiple-run innings and never trailed.

Play on the San Diego Padres to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

White Sox RH Carson Fulmer (2-1, 6.00 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (3-4, 7.43)

Sanchez Motown's starter tonight vs the White Sox is winless in his last five appearances and was crushed for seven runs and 12 hits in 4 2/3 innings at Toronto on Sunday. In 11 home outings this season, he is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA..Chicago pounded out 25 hits is 17-7 rout of Detroit in Thursday's series opener and I'm betting this young group will unleash another barrage on a Tigers teams just playing out the string.

 Detroit dropped its last six games and 12 of the past 14.and are fade material again.

SANCHEZ team when he starts  is 6-21   against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game dating back to last season.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

White Sox RH James Shields (3-6, 5.40 ERA) vs. Tigers LH Chad Bell (0-2, 5.79)

Bell has a 6.28 ERA in 10 games (one start) at home and is fade material here today vs the Chicago White Sox.  Note: Motown has lost 5 straight with the offense only  providing 9 runs in total during that span.

Tigers are 0-8 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.The White Sox are a perfect  12-0 on the road when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a game as a 110-plus dog in which they did not hit a home run. Which was the case yesterday.

Play on the Chicago White Sox ( Late Steam)

Jack Flaherty (0-0, 6.00 ERA) will draw the start for the Cardinals opposite Tyler Mahle (0-2, 3.60 ERA) in a matchup of rookies this Wednesday night in game that I am betting eclipses the total.

CINCINNATI is 18-7 OVER L/25 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) this season with a combined average of 12.3 rpg scored.ST LOUIS is 21-7 OVER vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 errors/game or less in the second half of the season with combined average of 10.7 rpg. CINCINNATI is 15-4 OVER revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 8 or more runs with a combined 10.9 rpg scored. CINCINNATI is 41-15 OVER L/56 with triple revenge - 3 straight losses against opponent with a combined average of 10.5 rpg. Manager PRICE is 10-1 OVER L/11 revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 6 runs or more with a combined average of 12.5 rpg.

Over is 8-3 in Reds last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in St. Louis.

Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection

Astros RH Justin Verlander (11-8, 3.74 ERA) vs. Angels RH Garrett Richards (0-0, 1.13)

Richards now healthy after rehab this season is (0-0, 1.13 ERA) and the Angels face the American League West-leading Houston Astros, as underdogs tonight and are a value selection in this spot. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Verlander a former Tiger hurler, gets the call tonight for the Astros. It must be noted that

VERLANDER is 0-7 L/7  against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. VERLANDER is 1-8 L/9  against the money line in road games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) this season.

Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Angels are 4-0 in Richards' last 4 starts.Angels are 30-14 in Richards' last 44 home starts.Angels are 4-1 in Richards' last 5 home starts vs. Astros.

MLB Road teams like Houston - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or less over his last 10 games, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs , are 29-55 66% go against  conversion rate .

Play on the LA Angels to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Suter the Brewers starter tonight In five career games against the Pirates, including four in relief,  is 0-0 along  with a stingy 1.80 ERA. Meanwhile, Gerrit Cole (11-9, 3.93 ERA) starts Tuesday for Pittsburgh. Cole has a 3.27 ERA over his past 16 starts. He has faced Milwaukee four times already this season, going 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 27 innings.

MILWAUKEE is 12-2 UNDER  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season this season with a combined 7.2 rpg.MILWAUKEE is 9-1 UNDER  vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored.MILWAUKEE is 16-4 UNDER   vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 like the Brewers- good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season, after scoring 2 runs or less are 147-104 for a 59% conversion rate under.The Brewers are have not eclipsed the number in 14 straight games  after they left fewer than 10 men on base individually last game.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

The Rangers Cole Hamels (9-3, 4.03 ERA)  will start the opener of a pivotal series against Seattle on Monday night when the Rangers host left-hander Ariel Miranda (8-6, 4.72) and the Mariners.In Hamel's last three starts, he is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 12 career starts against them  , his ERA is 5.06.  Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from Seattle Miranda during a recent  11-start stretch, has garnered a bloated  6.28 ERA, and he hasn't pitched more than six innings in any of the starts. With that said, I expect both these offenses to light up the board tonight in what I'm betting  will be a high scoring affair.

The Rangers are 16-0-3 OVER  when Cole Hamels starts as a favorite after they scored first in his last start won.HAMELS is 20-9 OVER L/29  vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse with a combined average of 11.1 rpg going on the board. HAMELS is 10-1 OVER  ) in September games with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

The Indians will attempt to extend their winning run to 18 games when they finish their  three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles this Sunday night. Tonight's starter for the red hot Indians Bauer owns a  8-0  record along with a 2.47 ERA in his L/10 starts. Despite of this streak , and while, everyone and his dog will be Cleveland tonight, I'll be looking in the opposite direction.

 It becomes very hard for a team to make runs like this without, having the other teams extremely motivated to take them down. Especially when that team has no pressure on them. It must be noted that Bauer despite of being in good form, has not liked facing the Orioles as is evident by his 0-3 record  along  with a bloated 6.75 ERA in four career starts . Meanwhile, Hellickson the Orioles, four career starts against the Indians, He is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA.HELLICKSON  team when he starts is 10-5  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line (Money Line 190 to +175) like Baltimore - after allowing 2 runs or less 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 69-17  for a 80% conversion rate over the L/5 seasons and a perfect 9-0 100% conversion rate  this season.

MLB team like the Indians - red hot hitting team - batting .305 or better over their last 15 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games are just 19-38 for a go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the Baltimore to cover +1.5 on the runline  1 unit reg selection

 Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks (6-4, 3.29 ERA) will go to the hill in his fourth start this season against the Brewers.Hendricks, who is 6-3 in 13 career starts against Milwaukee, hasn't lost since Aug. 4  and is currently in top form and gets the nod in this spot.Cubs are 4-1 in Hendricks' last 5 starts vs. Brewers Meanwhile, The Brewers will answer back with right-hander Zach Davies (16-8, 3.77), who has lost two of his three starts against the Cubs this season and is fade material this afternoon. He's a quality pitcher but the Cubs offense matches up very well against him. Cubs are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Cubs are 24-11 in their last 35 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the Cubs - cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are 114-45 for a 72% conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Pirates RH Ivan Nova (11-12, 4.11 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (11-7, 4.21).

Both these pitchers are currently not in top form, but Nova has looked better to me than Wacha has and  is a viable pitcher tp back here on a affordable runline price. Nova is also on extended rest and should be fresh here after 10 days off. I know the Cards are winning consistently, but their bats are not performing optimally, and look ready to fail, as they are 10-17  SU L/17 after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season, which has just happened.

The Cardinals are 0-16 L/16 on the runline when Michael Wacha starts as a home favorite after a quality start in his last start.

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 on the runline

SF starting hurler Samardzija (9-12, 4.31 ERA) pitched a three-hit shutout vs the Padres on Aug. 28 and allowed that performance up vs the Cardinals allowing just  one run and two hits in seven innings on Sept. 2. He went 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA in six starts in August, his best month of the season and enters this game in top form, and a viable hurler to back against a struggling White Sox team that has lost 8 of their L/10 games.The Pale Hose respond, with veteran righty James Shields (2-6, 5.72 ERA) .

SF beat the White Sox 9-2 yesterday and won 11-3 the day before and now with momentum on their side I like their chances again today.

SAN FRANCISCO is 13-3 L/16  against the money line in road games after a win by 6 runs or more

SHIELDS when he starts has seen his team go 9-27  against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.

The White Sox are 0-14 L/14 past the first game of a series as a dog after they had 6 or fewer hits last game.

MLB team like the White Sox - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30%, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games are 24-53 dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the SF giants to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

The Friday night pitching matchup has Baltimore left-hander Wade Miley (8-11, 4.91 ERA) opposing Cleveland righty Mike Clevinger (8-5, 3.50). Both pitchers have done well of late, but I'm betting the hotter bats of the Indians and home filed advantage will be the difference maker.

BALTIMORE is 9-26 L/35  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better this season and is 2-15 L17  against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better .CLEVELAND is 21-4  against the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins this season.

Orioles are 11-24 in their last 35 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Indians are 7-0 in Clevingers last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like Cleveland - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 47-12 L/59 for a 80% conversion rate for bettors spanning 5 seasons.

Play on the Cleveland Indians

Lynn the Cards starter against the Padres tonight, has recorded a solid 3.25 ERA in six starts versus the Padres in his career , and  ranks in the National League top 10 in many  pitching categories which includes, opposing batting average (.211), ERA (2.99) and hits/nine innings (6.79).He's held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 12 starts, which leads the majors. Meanwhile, Richard,  the Fathers starter  is 3-1 with a 4.39 ERA in 13 games (nine starts) against the Cardinals. He is highly respected by his peers and leads a young pitching staff  by example and work ethic unmatched in modern day baseball. He also leads the Padres in innings pitched (173) and in seven of his last eight games he's gone at least six innings.

Under is 10-2 in Lynns last 12 starts overall.Under is 8-2 in Lynns last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Under is 41-18-1 in Lynns last 60 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 5-0 in Lynns last 5 road starts.Under is 11-5 in Padres last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-1 in Lynns last 5 starts vs. Padres.Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.Under is 7-1 in umpire Tichenors last 8 Thursday games behind home plate and the last 8 times he has been behind home plate in a Cards game the total has stayed under.

LYNN is 10-1 UNDER  L/11 vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season dating back over the last few seasons. LYNN is 17-3 UNDER  vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season  in his career.RICHARD is 31-14 UNDER   when the total is 8 to 8.5 in his career.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Marlins RH Dan Straily (9-8, 3.91 ERA) vs. Braves LH Sean Newcomb (2-8, 4.31)

Miami will send Straily (9-8, 3.91 ERA) to the hill in the opener of a four-game series at SunTrust Park, and  Atlanta will counter with  rookie Sean Newcomb (2-8, 4.31) on Thursday.

Straily the Marlins man on the mound has been extremely strong in three starts against Atlanta this season, going 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA. Straily has struck out 20 batters in 17 innings, has walked only three and has allowed just one home run. He matches up well against the Braves batters. Meanwhile, the Braves starter Newcomb is in good form at the end of his rookie season . He was 1-3 with a 4.02 ERA in six starts in August but allowed three or fewer runs in five of those starts. He lost to Chicago on Aug. 31 despite allowing only two earned runs in five innings with seven strikeouts. So the W's are not there , but solid pitching performances are which solidifies my bet that this tilt will stay under the Total.

NEWCOMB is 8-0 UNDER  vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season with a combined average of 6.3 rpg getting scored.  ATLANTA is 24-9 UNDER  in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 8.6 rpg going on the board. MIAMI is 31-18 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.ATLANTA is 16-8 UNDER  in home games against division opponents this season.

The Marlins are 0-13 L/13 UNDER in the first game of a series when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em when they are off two losses in which they never led going under by 3.62 rpg game.

Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0-1 in Marlins last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Under is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 vs. National League East.Under is 7-0 in Newcombs last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record including 5 straight at home vs a below .500 team.Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Cole Hamels the ace of the Texas staff will make the start for the Rangers here in the 2nd game of this double Header. Meanwhile,  Julio Teheran (9-11, 4.75 ERA) will start for the Braves  , making his first start at SunTrust Park since ending a nine-game home losing streak with a victory over the Colorado Rockies on Aug. 25. Unfortunately for him, and despite of pitching well of late I'm betting he reverts back to his losing ways here at home again. He threw 109 pitches in his last outing, allowing just 1 run in a win and will not be so fresh here and could tire early. Also with that in mind it must be noted that Atlanta is 0-11 L/11 when Julio Teheran starts at home and he averaged more than four pitches per batter in his last start.

Texas (69-68) has cashed on 16 of its past 25 games on the moneyline including an 8-2 victory over the Braves on Monday, and must be respected here in this spot. TEHERAN is 4-13 L/17  against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher.TEHERAN is 1-10 against the money line in home games after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings.

TEHERAN  team when he starts is 8-22 L/30  against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game .TEXAS is 13-5 L/18 against the money line in road games in an inter-league game.ATLANTA is 3-15 L/18  against the money line in home games after a loss by 6 runs or more.Rangers are 20-8 in their last 28 interleague games.Rangers are 14-4 in their last 18 vs. National League East.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

The Royals send Boyd to the hill to face the KC royals this week. He owns a 8.67 ERA in his L/3 starts.  The Motown hurler has been hit  hard in his eight career outings against them. He has a 2-3 record and 8.27 ERA in those appearances. He is 1-0 with a 6.52 ERA in two starts against Kansas City this year. Meanwhile, Hamels goes to the hill for the Royals. He has recorded a 5.21 ERA in his L/3 starts. Hammel is 2-2 with a 6.70 ERA in 12 career outings (nine starts) against the Tigers and is winless in his last six starts vs. Detroit dating back to 2011. Both hurlers look like they will be cannon fodder in this spot.

KANSAS CITY is 28-11 OVER  L/39 in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season , with a combined average of 10.4 rpg going on the scoreboard. KANSAS CITY is 23-9 OVER  in September games dating back to last season.KANSAS CITY is 10-2 OVER  as a road favorite of -125 or more with a combined average of 12.2 rpg going on the scoreboard.DETROIT is 20-11 OVER at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season with a combined average of 11.8 rpg getting scored.

Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 like the Royals  - with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games are 46-23 to the OVER dating back 5 seasons.  

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

The Mets have lost 17 of their last 23 and are fade material here this evening, vs a Philadelphia team that despite of being bottom feeders still have some fight left in them behind with a fairly young lineup with promise. The Phillies Pivetta the teams starter tonight in his most recent trip the hill allowed one run over six innings Friday as the Phillies beat the Miami Marlins 2-1 and gets the nod here in this spot.

PHILADELPHIA is 12-3  against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more this season and 8-2 after scoring 9 or more runs which happened yesterday in a 9-1 victory vs the Mets. NY METS are 14-37   against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.NY METS are 4-15 L/19  against the money line revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the Phillies - starting a pitcher who gave up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings against opponent starting a pitcher who is working on 3 or less days rest are 43-16 dating back 20 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for betting backers of this league wide trend.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Royals LH Jason Vargas (14-9, 3.87 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (3-3, 6.95)

Sanchez the Tigers starter I'm betting exhibits some rust today after being on the disabled list over the L/2 weeks. Prior to his being sidelined, he allowed  17 runs on 23 hits - nine home runs - over 11 1/2 innings in three trips to the hill. I'm expecting he will be cannon fodder for the royals bats tonight. I know Vargas his pitching opponent tonight, has not been good form since the all star break, but is still a stable commodity compared to his counterpart. With that said, I'm betting the Royals hand the Tigers their 6th straight loss in this spot.

VARGAS has seen his team go  20-9 L/29  when he starts  against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse.KANSAS CITY is 19-6   against the money line after a 3 game span where the bullpen threw 13 total innings or more this season. SANCHEZ team when he starts is  is 5-18   against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher.Royals are 13-4 in Vargas' last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Royals are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.The Tigers are 0-14  as a home dog off a game as a dog in which they allowed 12+ hits.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the tigers - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season (AL), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts are 26-82 over the L/5 seasons for a go against  conversion rate of 76% for bettors. Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (KANSAS CITY) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.50 or worse over his last 3 starts are 72-24 for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the KC Royals to win on the moneyline

Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (6-4, 3.32 ERA) vs. Pirates LH Steven Brault (0-0, 5.93)

Hendricks the Cubs starter tonight vs Pittsburgh  is  2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in eight starts  since the end of July when he came off the disabled list  .The righty hurler has made four straight quality starts and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any appearance since his return. Meanwhile,  Brault  the Bucks starter will make his first big-league start of the season after six appearances out of the bullpen and has made seven major-league starts last season and went 0-3 with a 4.26 ERA, so he is still looking for his first major-league win. Brault has allowed 17 runs (nine earned) in 8 2/3 innings over four career trips to the hill(one start) against the Cubs and according to my cross reference pitching vs offensive power rankings is fade material tonight. (it must be noted that the cubs offense has done their best work against southpaw hurlers like Brault this season averaging 5.7 rpg in offense

The Pirates smashed  the Cubs 12-0 in the series opener, and now embarrassed I expect they come here with intentions of getting back on track today and handing out some big pay back of their own.The Pirates are 0-14 L/14  on the runline and moneyline  as a 170+ dog after they scored six-plus runs and it is after the All-Star break , losing by an average of 4.43 rpg on the moneyline and 2.93 rpg on the runline.

HENDRICKS when he starts has seen his team go  24-7   against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 with the average margin of victory coming by 1.9 rpg.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Pirates - with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are 24-90 over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.

Play on Chicago Cubs -1.5 on the runline  1 unit reg selection

Tampa Bay will send right-hander Alex Cobb (9-9, 3.72 ERA) to the mound on Monday. Cobb is 0-3 in his past four starts but his pitched well  in those  three starts, recording a stingy 2.20 ERA .
Cobb pitched at Minnesota on May 28 and fared well, striking out six in five innings and allowing a single run. In two career starts against the Twins, he has a 1-0 mark and a 2.53 ERA. Meanwhile, Minnesota's starter  Jose Berrios, is coming off a quality start against the White Sox. He struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings of four-hit baseball en route to an 11-1 victory. I'm expecting he uses the momentum of that gem of a start to continue with more of the same top tier pitching here today.

I'm expecting both there teams to have problems scoring today vs pitchers in top form.

TAMPA BAY is 9-1 UNDER  in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) this season with a combined average of 4.7 rpg going on the board.TAMPA BAY is 20-8 UNDER  vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 7.6 rpg going on the board. COBB is 27-12 UNDER  vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 6.5 rpg going on the scoreboard over the 39 game span.BERRIOS is 7-0 UNDER  when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 5 rpg going on the board. The Rays are  0-11 UNDER  at home after a game as a road favorite in which they struck out at least ten times.TAMPA BAY is 22-8 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 7.6 rpg.

Play on UNDER 1 unit reg selection

 Angels RH Parker Bridwell (7-2, 3.52 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Chris Smith (0-4, 6.27)

Right-handers Chris Smith (0-4, 6.27 ERA) of the A's and Parker Bridwell (7-2, 3.52) of the Angels will kick off a series this Monday.Smith the Athletics starter today is among my lowest ranking pitcher in my personal power rankings list. It must be noted that LA is 17-0 as a 125-plus road chalk on the moneyline off a road tilt when facing a team that is under .550 on the season whose starter has a strike-per-ball ratio of less than 1.625 like Smith.

Angels are 6-0 in Bridwells last 6 road starts.Angels are 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.

BRIDWELLs team is 8-0 when he starts  against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season this season and is 9-0   against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. OAKLAND is 7-22 l/29  against the money line in home games in September games over the last few seasons.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher As - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season (AL), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00  or mote over his last 3 starts are just 21-86 over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

Play on the LA Angels to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Yankees LH Jordan Montgomery (7-7, 4.15 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (13-8, 3.94)

Bundy the Orioles starter is coming off his first career complete game, a one-hit shutout vs the Seattle Mariners  in which he registered 12 strikeouts. I'm betting he uses the momentum of that game to take out the NY Yankees to Monday afternoon. Bundy (13-8, 3.94 ERA) went 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in five starts in August.  Meanwhile, the Yankees will start rookie Jordan Montgomery (7-7, 4.15 ERA). In his latest trip to the hill, Montgomery took the loss against the Cleveland Indians by allowing four runs and six hits over just four innings. He actually looked a little tired in that game, and is fade material here this afternoon in Baltimore in game 1 of this series.

The Yankees I'm betting will also be in a natural letdown situation after beating the ace of the BoSox rotation last night Chris Sale by a 9-2 count. It must be noted however, that the Yankees have not performed all that well in this situation , as they are 4-15  against the money line in road games after a win by 4 runs or more this season.

Yankees are 2-8 in Montgomerys last 10 starts.Yankees are 1-4 in Montgomerys last 5 road starts.Yankees are 1-8 in Montgomerys last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Orioles are 7-0 in Bundys last 7 starts.Orioles are 5-0 in Bundys last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Yankees are 8-23 in the last 31 meetings in Baltimore.The Orioles are 12-0 on the moneyline with no rest as a favorite in the first game of a series when playing a team that has a better record.

BALTIMORE is 29-11 L/40  against the money line in home games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the moneyline

Phillies RH Mark Leiter Jr. (2-4, 3.88 ERA) vs. Mets RH Rafael Montero (3-9, 5.12)

 New York's Rafael Montero (3-9, 5.12 ERA) is expected to face Philadelphia's Mark Leiter (2-4, 3.88 ERA) in a matchup of  right-handers at Citi Field this Monday afternoon. In his past 15 games (11 starts), Montero is 3-5 with a 4.27 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 72-30 in 71 1/3 innings. He opened the season by going 0-4 with an 8.24 ERA in his first 13 games (two starts) and had a great outing last time out, but watching this young man pitch I'm betting that was an anomaly and I am going against him here this afternoon.Montero is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA in six career trips to the hill (two starts) against the Phillies. Leiter, a left-handed hurler, allowed one run over five innings of relief in his lone appearance against the Mets on Aug. 10 and gets the nod today.

NY METS are 10-17   against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.NY METS are 12-29   against the money line in day games this season.The Phillies are 17-0 on the moneyline  in the first game of a series as a dog off a road game when their opponents starting pitcher has same-season-revenge and it is after the All-Star break.Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Mets are 1-6 in Monteros last 7 home starts.Mets are 3-12 in their last 15 home games.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Red Sox LH Chris Sale (15-6, 2.77 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Luis Severino (11-6, 3.14)

 Sale owns a 2.12 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings against New York this season but is just 0-2 in four outings due to poor run support He is off a .dominating effort at Toronto on Tuesday, when he struck out 11 without walking a batter and scattered three hits over seven scoreless innings. Needless to say he enters this game with fire in his eyes, and is a quality hurler to back in this spot. Meanwhile, the Yankees will return fire with Luis Severino who's worst start of the season came in a home game  home against Boston on Aug. 12, when he was crushed for 10 runs ( eight earned ) over 4 1/3 innings of ugly work. My own cross reference pitcher vs batter projections , tells me the BoSox offense should give Sale all the run support he will need tonight.

Red Sox are 5-1 in Sales last 6 road starts.

BOSTON is 37-19 L/56 against the money line in September games.BOSTON is 27-  against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season dating back to last year.SEVERINO is 5-12  L/17 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) over.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Yankees - good offensive team ( 5.1 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50) or less  (AL), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are just 10-38 for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.

 
Play on the BoSox to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

 The Blue Jays enter this game vs Baltimore despite of winning yesterdays game having dropped three consecutive road series. Overall, they are 8-16 in their last 24 road games and 3-7 in their last 10 and once again look like fade material here this afternoon in Maryland.

Toronto is also 0-4 in series against the Orioles this season.

Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win.

Today I'm betting the Orioles, will tee off on Jays starter Anderson who has still not 100% recovered from a back injury this season that has caused him to miss a lot of time. He posted an 8.18 ERA in six starts for the Chicago Cubs this season before being released July 31. The Blue Jays signed him to a minor-league deal on Aug. 14. I know Tillman the Os starter does not give one a lot of confidence from a pitching perspective, thanks to a down year, but the Jays hardly have a good record vs this kind of pitcher as is evident by a 3-9 record against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.40 or worse dating back to last season.TILLMAN is also 13-3 L/16 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse. Orioles are 20-6 in Tillmans last 26 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

BALTIMORE is 30-15 L/45 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.TILLMAN is 14-7 L/21 against the money line against division opponents.Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.Orioles are 63-28 in their last 91 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Orioles are 5-1 in Tillmans last 6 starts vs. Blue Jays.

Play on the Baltimore Os to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Reds RH Sal Romano (4-5, 4.91 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Trevor Williams (5-7, 4.37)
Williams the Pirates starter is winless in his last four games despite pitching  tow straight quality starts including a loss to the Cubs on Monday in which he gave up two runs over five innings in Wrigley Field.  I'm betting he continues with the same momentum he exhibited of late, but this time help his team notch a win.

The Pirates took out the Reds 5-0 yesterday which is a good omen for us as they are 17-0 as a favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they shut out their opponent.

CINCINNATI is 7-26   against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season.CINCINNATI is 2-11   against the money line revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less this season.CINCINNATI is 6-20   against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the  Reds  - good offensive team - scoring 4.5 runs/game or more per game on the season (NL), in September games are just 15-58 over the L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Angels RH Ricky Nolasco (6-12, 5.09 ERA) vs. Rangers RH A.J. Griffin (6-5, 5.26)

Nolasco (6-12, 5.09) has faced Texas three times this year, recording a less than flattering 0-2 record with an 11.12 ERA over those starts. but that was then and this is now . Last time he faced them he didn't have the offensive support of Mike Trout, who  was not in the lineup for the Angels and now they also have even more offensive fire power with Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips now swinging . bats. Also as far as Nolasco is concerned, I'm betting he starts to figure out the Rangers, as this current lineup does have a lot experience against him. Mike Napoli has the most experience of any Ranger against Nolasco, but he hasn't fared as well. In 18 at-bats Napoli has a single hit, for a .067 batting average.  Meanwhile, Griffin the Rangers starter, won his last start vs the Halos, but that's not a good omen, for him and his team as Angels are 19-0  as a moneyline favorite off a game as a favorite when seeking same-season revenge vs their opponents starting pitcher and it is after the All-Star break and not a series opener.

Angels are 4-1 in Nolascos last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.Angels are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.Rangers are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.

MLB Road teams LA Angels - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games are 63-32 dating back 20 seasons.

Play on the LA Angles to win  on the moneyline

Tampa Bays starter southpaw Blake Snell (2-6, 4.29 ERA) will start  today against a White Sox team that are big home underdogs. Last time out Chicago lost 5-4 in walk off fashion as underdogs , but this time around I'm betting they find their way and deliver a pay day vs a, pitcher that despite of some recent good outings is a  very hittable pitcher. Chicago has lost their L/2 games they played vs the Rays but are  solid in that situation  going 10-5  against the money line in home games with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season.The White Sox are also 6-0 L/6 as a home dog in the first game of a series with no rest when they are off a road game and they blew a lead in their starters last start and lost.

Rays are 1-5 in Snells last 6 starts vs. American League Central.White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.Rays are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.Snell has won just two times in 20 career road starts.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (1-4, 4.25 ERA) vs. Rangers LH Cole Hamels (9-2, 3.78)

Skaggs  the Angels starter tonight vs the Rangers  is 0-3 with a 4.56 ERA since coming off the disabled list .  . Skaggs owns a 2-2 record along with  a 5.66 ERA against the Rangers in his career. I'm betting Skaggs in trouble today vs a Texas side that does their best offensive work at home averaging 5.8 rpg via a .271 BA.  Meanwhile, Texas will respond with  southpaw Cole Hamels (9-2, 3.78 ERA), who had a solid August despite a ugly outing last time out. I expect this quality hurler to come back here with  a vengeance. He owns a 4-1 record along  with a stingy 2.47 ERA for his career vs the Halos.Hamels is 6-0  at home this season in 8 starts along with a very stable 3.01 ERA.

HAMELS team when he starts  is 16-2 L/18  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season.LA ANGELS are 3-11  against the money line after a 3 game span where the bullpen threw 13 total innings or more this season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the Rangers - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80% are 48-21 during the L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Red Sox LH Eduardo Rodriguez (4-4, 4.19 ERA) vs. Yankees LH CC Sabathia (10-5, 3.82)

Sabathia is making his third start since returning from the disabled list because of  a right knee injury. Sabathia was on the DL when the Red Sox last visited New York and returned Aug. 19 in Boston when he allowed two runs and four hits.He followed it up by allowing just one run and five hits in seven quality innings in a no-decision in the Yanks heart breaking  11-inning loss to the Seattle Mariners this past Friday. Sabathia is shaping back into form and I expect he will be at his best in this tilt.  . The current Boston roster is hitting a combined .187 (32-for-171) off him. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent,  in nine starts since May 25, Rodriguez the BoSox starter is 0-3 with a 5.76 ERA.Rodriguez is trying for his first win in over three months.

The Red Sox swept the Yanks the last time they met, and now I expect the Yankees will be amped up to perform here, as they are not only in revenge mode, but in a desperation mode as well, as their play off aspirations, will hinge on their play over the next week.

SABATHIA is 10-2   against the money line against division opponents this season.Red Sox are 0-5 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.Yankees are 4-0 in Sabathias last 4 starts vs. Red Sox.

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

I almost always like to put a starting pitching matchup analysis up , but when a situation like this arises, momentum plays a almost bigger factor in a projected outcome .Toronto just finished  a six-game homestand with a ugly 1-5 record and have now lost 10 of 12 overall. The Blue Jays sit in last place in the American League East and are regularly playing like bottom feeders and are fade material here again tonight vs a Baltimore team on a red hot 7 game win streak after yesterdays 8-7 win vs the Mariners.The Orioles have been offensively explosive during their winning run, scoring four or more runs in six of the seven victories. With play off aspirations still in play I expect we will see the Os, in top form, again tonight vs a team playing out the string  that they have beaten 7 of 10 times this season.

BALTIMORE is 36-10 L/46  against the money line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%).TORONTO is 4-11  against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span this season.BALTIMORE is 67-29  L/96 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Os starter HELLICKSON is 7-2  against the money line against division opponents this season.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Jays - cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 11-45 over the L/5 seasons for a go against  80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection