20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -2

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  I've been riding them a lot during their 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS run over their last 11 games and I'm going to continue to ride them tonight.  They want to extend their winning streak to seven games, and they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Memphis Grizzlies have injury problems right now that have them just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their lone win coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder at home.  They lost by 10 at Washington, by 11 at New Orleans and by 12 at Brooklyn.

While the Kings are fully healthy right now, which is a big reason they are playing so well, the Grizzlies are far from it.  They're without the most underrated player in the NBA in Desmond Bane (24.7 PPG).  JA Morant (28.6 PPG) is questionable tonight, and Jaren Jackson Jr. (16.0 PPG) is making his way back from injury and on a minutes restriction.

The Kings are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days' rest.  Sacramento is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road games.  Bet the Kings Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -8

After a slow start to the season due to chemistry issues with Rudy Gobert, the Minnesota Timberwolves are starting to put it together.  They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall and would be 3-0 ATS against the opening line.  They won at Cleveland by 5, at Orlando by 18 and at Philadelphia by 3 as closing 3.5-point favorites.

Now the Timberwolves are back home and rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  The same cannot be said for the Miami Heat, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days.  They are starting to wear down losing three consecutive games including an 87-113 blowout loss in Cleveland last night.

It's going to be another blowout loss for the Heat tonight.  Making matters worse is they have been hit hard by injuries, so they are short-handed, which makes fatigue even more of a factor.  The Heat will be without both Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro tonight, plus both Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent are questionable.  The Timberwolves will run them out of the gym and put tempo to use as they rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season.

The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Timberwolves are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Miami.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +7

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 113-114 loss at Indiana on Saturday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later in Indiana again.  They go from 6.5-point dogs in the first meeting to 7-point dogs in the second meeting, so the books aren't even adjusting for the revenge factor.

Simply put, you're paying a tax to back the Pacers right now after they have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But this is the perfect spot for a letdown for this young team, and I expect the Magic to win outright.  Getting 7 points is just an added bonus.

The Magic have quietly been very competitive going 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They upset the Bulls on the road as 8.5-point dogs, upset the Suns by 17 as 7-point dogs, upset the Mavericks by 7 as 8.5-point dogs and upset the Warriors as 9.5-point dogs during this stretch.  So they have proven they can play with anyone.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - off a home win scoring 110 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Indiana.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Pacers UNDER 227

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, this will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Magic and Pacers.  They combined for 227 points with a 226-point total on Saturday, and now the books have opened the total a notch higher at 227 for the rematch.  They haven't adjusted for the familiarity factor, and we'll take advantage and bet the UNDER.

The Pacers have been much better defensively with a healthy Myles Turner.  The Magic are playing big ball right now due to injuries and it's working and keeping them competitive.  Mo Bamba and Bol Bol both played over 30 minutes against the Pacers on Saturday and combined for 43 points and 20 rebounds.  There isn't much playmaking at the guard position right now without Cole Anthony.

The UNDER is 5-2 in Magic last seven games overall with combined scores of 227 or fewer points in six of those seven games, including 217 or less in five of them.  The Pacers have seen 227 or fewer combined points in three of their last four meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Mavericks UNDER 217.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, Denver and Dallas just played on Friday, and now they will play again two days later here Sunday.  Dallas won that first meeting 127-99 thanks to shooting a ridiculous 59.7% from the field, going 46-of-77.  That's not going to happen again.

The Denver Nuggets are going to be without their two best players in Nikola Jokic (20.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 8.9 APG) and Jamal Murray (16.5 PPG).  Jokic is a walking triple-double and is the reason their offense has been so efficient.  Without him they are going to be pretty lost on that end of the court.  We've seen that play out in their last two games as they scored 103 on 43.9% shooting against the Knicks and 99 on 42.2% shooting against the Mavericks.

Dallas ranks dead last in pace at 97.3 possessions per game and will control the tempo at home.  The improvement the Mavericks have made defensively under Jason Kidd has been remarkable.  Dallas ranks 5th in defensive efficiency this season.

This total was set at 216 for the first meeting and after going over the total it has been set at 217.5 in the rematch.  That's a mistake from the oddsmakers as they are not factoring in the familiarity factor, plus how well the Mavericks shot in that first meeting.   Denver and Dallas have combined for 215 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 meetings overall.  The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Mavericks last 61 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5

This is a terrible spot for the Philadelphia 76ers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-102 upset home win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  Joel Embiid played 36 minutes last night and six players played at least 30 minutes.  They also lost Tyrese Maxey (22.9 PPG) to an ankle injury in that game and he is doubtful to play tonight.  Tobias Harris (14.7 PPG) sat out last night and is questionable as well.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They are finally playing up to their potential too following up a 129-124 upset win in Cleveland with a dominant 126-108 win at Orlando.  I expect them to win and cover their third consecutive game tonight given the terrible spot for the 76ers and the injuries.  It's definitely a letdown spot for Philadelphia after a win over the Bucks, too.

The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Saturday games.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5

I love the spot for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They come in on two days' rest and will be pissed off following a 25-point loss to the Celtics.  That followed up a 15-point win at Milwaukee in their previous game to flash their potential.  The also want revenge from a 30-point loss at Toronto in their first meeting this season.

But while the Hawks are fully healthy right now, the Raptors are missing four of their top seven scorers.  They will be without Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG), Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG), Chris Boucher (12.3 PPG) and Precious Achiuwa (8.8 PPG).  They also could be without Otto Porter Jr., who is questionable.  The just don't have the horses to be competitive in this game without these guys.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Atlanta) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a well-rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 61-31 (66.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Toronto.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Grizzlies OVER 231

The books are failing to adjust to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing right now.  They have gone OVER the total in five consecutive games.  They combined for 268 points with Milwaukee, 245 points with Toronto, 280 points with New York, 248 points with Boston and 241 points with Washington in their last five games.

They have been playing this way for a while now and it's working as they are 7-5 SU in their last 12 games overall, so they aren't going to abandon it.  The OVER is now 9-2 in their last 11 games overall with combined scores of 228 or more points in eight of those 11 games.  This total of 231 is just too low with the way they are playing right now.

The Memphis Grizzlies will oblige in an up-tempo affair.  JA Morant will enjoy going toe-to-toe with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been one of the best players in the NBA this season.  The Grizzlies aren't playing much defense this season as they rank 22nd in defensive efficiency.  

These teams combined for 243 points in their most recent meeting.  They have combined for 231 or more points in four of their last six meetings with the OVER going 5-1 in those six.  The OVER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 7-1 in Thunder last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  OKC is 7-0 OVER vs. teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pacers/Rockets OVER 236

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Rick Carlisle.  They have combined for 251 points with the Pelicans, 241 points with the Nuggets and 238 points with the Hornets in going OVER the total in three of their last four games overall.  The lone exception was the 118-104 win over a Toronto team that was missing several starters and was handicapped on offense because of it.

Houston is also a dead nuts OVER team and will gladly get into a shootout with the Pacers.  Houston ranks 28th in defensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 27th.  Indiana ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace this season while Houston ranks 9th in pace.  So we have two of the fastest-tempo teams going up against two teams that don't play defense.

Indiana beat Houston 121-118 in their final meeting last season for 239 combined points.  The OVER is 14-6 in Pacers last 20 games overall.  The OVER is 21-7-1 in Pacers last 29 games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 7-2 in Rockets last nine home games.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Wizards OVER 225.5

The books are failing to adjust to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing right now.  They have gone OVER the total in four consecutive games.  They combined for 268 points with Milwaukee, 245 points with Toronto, 280 points with New York and 248 points with Boston in their last four games.

They have been playing this way for a while now and it's working as they are 6-5 SU in their last 11 games overall, so they aren't going to abandon in.  The OVER is now 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with combined scores of 228 or more points in seven of those 10 games.  This total of 225.5 is just too low with the way they are playing right now.

The Washington Wizards will oblige and play the up-tempo game with them.  The Wizards get a big boost tonight with the return of their best player in Bradley Beal (21.6 PPG).  He has been out since November 4th, and he'll give their offense a big boost tonight now that he's back healthy.

The Wizards and Thunder have combined for at least 226 points in three of their last four meetings, including 240 points in their most recent meeting.  The OVER is 20-6 in Thunder last 26 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 16-7 in Wizards last 23 home games.  The OVER is 21-9-1 in Wizards last 31 games following a win.  The OVER is 64-31-1 in Wizards last 96 games playing on two days' rest, including 10-1 OVER In their last 11 home games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nets/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

The Sacramento Kings have rebounded from an 0-4 start to go 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall to get to .500 on the season.  They would love that feeling of a winning record, and I think they get it tonight with a win and cover at home against the Brooklyn Nets.

The Kings are getting zero respect for this run they are one, which continues to make them an undervalued commodity and I keep cashing in.  I backed them in each of their last three games in a 127-120 upset win as 4-point dogs over the Cavaliers, a 120-114 win at the Lakers as 4.5-point favorites and a 122-115 upset win as 4-point dogs to Golden State.

The Nets are getting respect for their 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS run without Kyrie Irving.  No question their chemistry has been better without him, but they've also taken advantage of a very easy schedule.  Now is the time to fade them after a 103-116 loss to the Lakers without LeBron James.  Their run just came an end, and this team simply doesn't have the talent or depth to be very good on a nightly basis.  It's one of my favorite teams to fade in the NBA.  It will also be their 3rd game in 4 days after spending two days in Los Angeles, which is a distraction.

The Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  The Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Sacramento) 0 after winning five or six of its last seven games, winning between 45-55% of their games are 49-15 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road underdogs (Brooklyn) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 40-49% of their games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Kings Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +7.5

This line has been adjusted way too much in Dallas' favor for the Los Angeles Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Mavericks come in on two days' rest.  The spot isn't worth this many points as these are two pretty evenly-matched teams without the spot.  I'll gladly take the 7.5 points with the Clippers tonight.

The Mavericks shouldn't be favored this heavily over anyone right now.  They are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with five wins during this stretch all coming by 9 points or fewer, with four wins by 5 points or fewer.  They also lost outright to the Wizards as 6-point favorites, to the Magic as 8.5-point favorites and to the Thunder as 10.5-point favorites.  This team just can't be trusted right now.

The spot isn't even bad for the Clippers.  They will only be playing their 3rd game in 6 days here.  They made easy work in a 122-106 win at Houston last night, so it's a short travel to Dallas.  Nobody even played 30 minutes last night for the Clippers, so they should still be very fresh.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA with Mann, Powell, Batum and Covington all coming off the bench, so they can handle these back-to-backs better than most teams.

The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Dallas.  Roll with the Clippers Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans have been a dangerous team with the Big 4 of Ingram (21.4 PPG), Williamson (23.5 PPG), McCollum (17.8 PPG, 6.3 APG) and Valanciunas (13.8 PG, 10.1 RPG) have been healthy this season.  All four are expected to play tonight, and I like the Pelicans laying this short number at home against the Memphis Grizzlies.

While Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are both expected to play tonight, both are hampered by injuries.  Jackson Jr. will be on a minutes restriction in his season debut.  The big loss for the Grizzlies is Desmond Bane, who is arguably the most underrated player in the entire NBA.  He averages 24.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.  He'll be out until December.  The Grizzlies lost outright at Washington by 10 in their first and only game without Bane this season.

The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Memphis.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +7.5

The Golden State Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year.  The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 25th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 119.2 points per game and 46.9% shooting to their opponents.  That's the biggest reason they are 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS and have been grossly overvalued.

Now the Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 115-122 road loss to the Kings last night.  Curry, Green, Thompson and Wiggins all played at least 32 minutes last night.  The Warriors are getting no help from their bench, another reason they are struggling this season.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Spurs tonight.

Meanwhile, San Antonio comes in rested and ready to go on two days' rest after last playing on Friday in a 111-93 home victory over the Bucks.  The Spurs have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season as they are 6-7 SU & 8-5 ATS.  They show up every night, and they'll certainly show up against the defending champs tonight with a lot more energy than the Warriors with this rest advantage.

San Antonio is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with the Warriors with the two losses coming by 6 and 4 points.  The road team has won five consecutive meetings outright.  San Antonio is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Spurs are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  San Antonio is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Spurs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on two days' rest.  Golden State is 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* Thunder/Celtics NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Oklahoma City Thunder have changed to an up-tempo game that fits their young roster in the last week and the oddsmakers are failing to adjust.  They lost to the Bucks and all their backups 136-132 (OT) for 268 combined points, beat the Raptors 132-113 for 245 combined points and beat the Knicks 145-135 for 280 combined points in their last three games coming in.

This 228-point total has been set too low with the way the Thunder are playing right now.  Now they face a Boston Celtics team that is far and away 1st in offensive efficiency this season, scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions.  But the Celtics have taken a big step back in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions.  They really miss the Robert Williams, who has been out with an injury all season.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Celtics last seven games overall with at least 225 combined points in six of those seven games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Thunder last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The OVER is 7-2 in Thunder last nine games overall.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Boston.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +5.5

The Toronto Raptors are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming 116-109 at home over the lowly Houston Rockets as 10-point favorites.  They lost by 14 at Chicago, by 19 at Oklahoma City and by 18 at Indiana.

A big reason for the Raptors' struggles is that they are now without three of their top four scorers in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), Fred VanVleet (18.4 PPG, 6.8 APG) and Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG) tonight.  They cannot be 5.5-point road favorites over the Pistons tonight missing these three guys.

The Raptors are a tired team to boot playing their 6th game in 9 days, so it hurts them even more being without these guys.  The Pistons are rested and ready to go playing only their 5th game in 10 days here.  They were competitive in their loss to the Celtics losing by 9 even without Cade Cunningham.  Jaden Ivey is quickly blossoming into a star scoring 26 points in the loss.

Detroit is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 games following a home loss.  The Pistons are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 games following three or more consecutive losses.  Amazingly, Detroit is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Toronto with six outright wins as underdogs.  They clearly have this team figured out, and it will be even easier for them with the Raptors missing three of their top four scorers.  Take the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5

The Sacramento Kings have quietly gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their two losses came by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State.  They have upset the Cavaliers and Heat during this stretch as well.

Now the Kings have double-revenge here after losing to the Warriors by 5 and 3 points in two road games this season.  Now the Kings get the Warriors at home this time around, and I expect them to win outright, let alone staying within 4.5 points here.

The Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year.  They certainly won't be motivated to beat the Kings for a third time already this season.  The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 119.0 points per game and 46.5% shooting to their opponents.  That's the biggest reason they are 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS and have been grossly overvalued.

Plays against road favorites (Golden State) - off two or more consecutive home wins, in Sunday games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games playing on one days' rest.  Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They have lost three of their last four against a brutal schedule of Boston, Toronto (twice) and New Orleans.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as a result, and I like their chances considering they are well-rested after having the LAST THREE DAYS OFF!

The Nuggets don't have the same luxury.  They will be playing their 4th consecutive road games and their 4th road game in 7 days.  They started to show some fatigue in their 112-131 loss at Boston on Friday after barely squeaking by against the Pacers by 3 and Spurs by 6 in their two prior road games.  Denver will be without Bones Hyland, who averages 14.0 PPG in just 20.7 minutes per game this season and is a key cog off their bench.

The Bulls won both meetings with the Nuggets last season.  The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The Bulls are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah Jazz +3.5

The Utah Jazz have been grossly undervalued to start the season.  They are 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS this season and got back way better pieces in the Mitchell and Gobert trades than they got credit for.  Markkanen (22.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG), Sexton (13.9 PG), Olynyk (12.1 PPG), Beasley (11.8 PPG), Vanderbilt (8.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.9 PPG) are meshing well with holdovers Clarkson (18.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Conley (11.4 PPG, 8.2 APG).

The Philadelphia 76ers have been grossly overvalued this season.  They are 6-7 SU & 6-7 ATS and now they are without one of their best players in James Harden until December.  I backed the 76ers last night in a great spot as they were out for revenge on the Hawks and got that revenge.  But now I expect them to be flat tonight, while the Jazz will be motivated after an upset loss to the Wizards last night.

Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but the spot is better for the Jazz.  They are a deeper team and will handle this spot better because of it.  They also had two days off prior to playing the Wizards last night.  Meanwhile, the 76ers have zero depth without Harden now and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Embiid played 40 minutes, Harris 38 and Maxey 36 last night.  The Jazz only had one player play more than 30 minutes last night.

Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Philadelphia is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS win.  Utah is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Jazz are 7-0 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days this season.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Pelicans OVER 232

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Houston Rockets visit the New Orleans Pelicans Saturday night.  The Rockets rank 7th in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Pelicans are loaded on offense ranking 8th in offensive efficiency at 111.4 points per 100 possessions.  But they have been disappointing thus far this season because of their lack of defense.  The Pelicans rank 19th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions.

Houston has gone OVER the total in three consecutive games with combined scores of 246, 261 and 225 points.  The OVER is 5-1 in Rockets last six road games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven Saturday games.  The OVER is 6-2 in Pelicans last eight home games.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -3

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 95-104 road loss at Atlanta on Thursday in which they shot just 38.6% from the floor.  This is now a 'buy low' spot on them as they are favored by only 3 points at home in the rematch here two days later.

It's also time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are a terrible road team and did most of their damage at home with four of their last five games in Atlanta.

The Hawks are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts.  Atlanta is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Hawks are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games.  Bet the 76ers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 112-128 loss in Boston on Wednesday where they shot 41.6% while the Celtics shot 53.4%.  Now they get their shot at revenge just three days later here Saturday and are catching 9.5 points at home, which gives us a ton of wiggle room.

It's a bad spot for both teams, but a better one for the Pistons because of the revenge plus they will be the fresher team.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Pistons are the deeper team and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days, while the Celtics will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics after winning five consecutive games coming in.  It would not shock me one bit to see them rest some starters after Jayson Tatum played over 37 minutes, Jaylen Brown over 34 minutes, Al Horford over 34 minutes and Grant Williams over 32 minutes last night in the big win over Denver.

Boston is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Celtics are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game.  The Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 39% or better.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  Detroit is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -1

The Indiana Pacers have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  I love the spot for them now coming in on two days' rest and playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Toronto Raptors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They started to show their fatigue last night losing 113-132 on the road to the lowly Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are still without their best player in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), and they aren't a very deep team as it is.

The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana should be favored by more today given how much the spot favors them.  Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -3.5

The Sacramento Kings are fully healthy now and playing up to their potential.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Golden State and by 3 points at Miami.  They also upset Miami and Cleveland during this stretch.

Look for the Kings to roll the Los Angeles Lakers, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA even with a healthy LeBron James.  They Lakers are 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS this season.  Now they will be without James tonight.  They have no chance of even keeping this competitive as seven of their nine losses have come by 9 points or more. 

The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one days' rest.  The Lakers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Warriors OVER 228

Two elite offensive teams and two poor defensive teams square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors host the Cleveland Cavaliers.  This one has all the makings of a shootout tonight folks.

Golden State ranks 1st in the NBA in pace this season and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Warriors are having no problems on offense this season ranking 12th in offensive efficiency.  The Cavaliers have been great in that area which is a big reason for their improvement this season.  They are 3rd in offensive efficiency and scoring 116.6 points per game.

The reason the Warriors are struggling so much is because they have taken a big step back defensively this season.  They rank 25th in defensive efficiency.  We've seen at least 229 combined points in nine of Golden State's 11 games this season.  They are scoring 117.3 points per game and allowing 120.6 points per game.

The OVER is 18-7-1 in Cavaliers last 26 road games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Warriors last five home games.  The OVER is 7-3-1 in Warriors last 11 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio Spurs PK

The Milwaukee Bucks are grossly overvalued right now due to their 10-1 start.  It's time to 'sell high' on them, especially after they were just without all their best players and beat the Thunder 136-132 in double-OT.  They won't be able to beat the Spurs without all their best players tonight.

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Spurs, who have lost five consecutive games but were competitive in three of the losses by 7 points or fewer.  The blowout losses were due to injuries.  But the Spurs are fully healthy now with the exception of Zach Collins.

The Spurs won't take the Bucks lightly tonight due to this five-game losing streak.  That's key because Milwaukee cannot beat them unless San Antonio has a letdown.  The Bucks are without their three best players in Giannis (31.8 PPG, 12.2 RPG), Holiday (19.6 PPG, 7.9 APG) and Middleton.

Plays on any team (San Antonio) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team after a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +1

Teams tend to rally when they lose a star player.  That has been the case with the Brooklyn Nets as they are playing their best basketball of the season without Kyrie Irving.  And it looks to be the case with the Philadelphia 76ers as well after finding out they'll be without James Harden until December.

The 76ers promptly upset the Phoenix Suns 100-88 last time out at home.  They are rested and ready to go tonight as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight.  They had two days off prior to the Phoenix game on Monday, and now have had two days off heading into this showdown with Atlanta.

That's a huge advantage for the 76ers when you consider the Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 119-125 home loss to the Utah Jazz last night.  That game will have taken a lot out of them as it was an absolute shootout played at a high pace.  They won't have much left in the tank for the 76ers tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on zero rest.  Take the 76ers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5

I love betting against teams that just had an extending winning streak snapped.  There always seems to be a hangover effect and they just aren't as motivated as they were to try and keep the winning streak alive.  That will be the case for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

The Cavaliers are in a massive hangover spot here after having their 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS streak come to an end after blowing a late 8-point lead to the Clippers in a 117-119 loss on Monday.  That was a double-header in Los Angeles after beating the Lakers the night before.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Kings now tonight after their winning streak was snapped.

Now they will be playing their 4th consecutive road game and their 3rd road game in 4 days against a Sacramento Kings team on the improve.  The Kings are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State.  I think they're showing tremendous value catching 5.5 points at home against the Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cavaliers are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS loss.

Plays on any team (Sacramento) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team that is off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Thunder UNDER 219.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been relying on defense in the early going with injuries to Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles as all three have yet to play.  Now they are without PG Jrue Holiday, which will make them even more of an UNDER team until he returns.

But the Bucks have gotten to 9-1 this season thanks to ranking 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.  They rank just 16th in pace at 97.4 possessions per game.  They are 20th in offensive efficiency.   To no surprise, the UNDER is 7-3 in their 10 games this season.

Oklahoma City ranks just 26th in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency, which has allowed them to at least be competitive.  So they are a dead nuts UNDER team as well.  And these teams just met on November 5th with Milwaukee winning 108-94 for 202 combined points.  It should be more of the same here just four days later, especially considering familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The UNDER is 17-5 in Bucks last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games following a loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Suns/Timberwolves UNDER 226

The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts UNDER team right now.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions.  Phoenix ranks 28th in pace, averaging just 94.3 possessions per game.  They are even more of an UNDER team now without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) who is their best shooter.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are also a dead nuts UNDER team.  The addition of Rudy Gobert has indeed made them a better defensive team, which is what they wanted, but it has hurt them offensively.  The Timberwolves rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency.

These teams just met on November 1st with the Suns winning 116-107 for 223 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that will be the case here in the rematch just over a week later.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Suns last six road games.  The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games overall.  Phoenix is 13-1 UNDER in its last 14 games following a road loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Raptors OVER 223.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 7th in pace at 99.1 possessions per game.  They rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.7 points per 100 possessions.  So this total of 223.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Rockets.

The Raptors have some good chemistry on offense as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency.  They are scoring 111.9 points per game this season, while the Rockets are scoring 110.4 points per game.  Houston allows 117.9 points per game and Toronto should get to 120 here to lead the way to cashing this OVER.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings.  The Rockets and Raptors have combined for at least 228 points in four of the last five meetings with combined scores of 232, 259, 216, 233 and 228 points in the last five meetings, respectively.  Both meetings last season sailed OVER the total.

The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.  The OVER is 6-1 in Raptors last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockets are coming off 246 combined points with Minnesota followed by 261 combined points with Orlando in their last two games.

Plays on the OVER on road teams with a total of 210 or higher (Houston) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 255 points or more are 31-9 (77.5%) since 1996.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 223.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts UNDER team without Kyrie Irving.  He's one of the best scorers in the NBA and also arguably the single-worst defender.  The proof is in the pudding for the Nets when he has been out due to suspension the past three games.

Indeed, the Nets combined for 214 points with the Wizards, 192 points with the Hornets and 190 points with the Mavericks in their last three games without him.  In fact, the UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last five games overall.  It should be more of the same here against the New York Knicks.

Tom Thibodeau has the Knicks playing defense again this season.  New York ranks 15th in defensive efficiency but still struggles to score on offense.  This has been a very low-scoring series with the Knicks and Nets combining for 222 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Nets last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Pacers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 235.5

The Indiana Pacers play at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home.  They are dream OVER team because they play no defense, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Nuggets will oblige in a shootout.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 113.8 points per 100 possessions.  They rank just 20th in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Pacers are 13th in offensive efficiency scoring 110.2 points per 100 possessions and have been even more efficient since Myles Turner returned from injury.

The Pacers have allowed at least 114 points in nine of their 10 games this season.  They have scored at least 124 points in five of their 10 games.  The Nuggets have scored at least 110 points in nine consecutive games.  These teams combined for 243 points in their final meeting last season, and that was with Denver not having Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. healthy.

The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Indiana.  The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  Indiana is 20-6 OVER in its last 26 home games with a total of 230 or higher.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 101-126 loss in Denver on Saturday in which the Nuggets shot 60.9% including 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3-point range.  Their shooting of late is unsustainable.

It's also a 'buy low' spot on the Spurs after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They have been battling through injuries during this stretch but are much healthier for this game, which is going to make a big difference for them.

Plays on any team (San Antonio) - that is allowing a 50% shooting percentage or higher on the season, averaging 48 or fewer rebounds per game are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS since 1996.  San Antonio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following two consecutive wins by 10 or more points.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight.  Roll with the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Bulls UNDER 222

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Well, the Bulls and Raptors just played yesterday in Toronto with the Raptors winning 113-104 for just 217 combined points.  Now they will play a day later, this time in Chicago.  This 222-point total had been set too high given the situation that favors the UNDER.

The Raptors rank 28th in the NBA in pace this season.  The Bulls rank 23rd in pace.  This total has been set too high based on how these teams like to play in the half court and not get out and run.  It is especially too high given the situation.  The Bulls are 5th in defensive efficiency while the Raptors are 8th as well.

The has been an UNDER series as well.  The Raptors and Bulls have combined for 219 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Chicago.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last seven Monday games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Monday NBA Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Heat UNDER 217

Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER between the Blazers and Heat.  The Blazers are expected to be without their two leading scorers tonight in Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG).  We saw how well that went last time out when they were held to 82 points by the Suns.

The Heat could be without Tyler Herro (19.6 PPG), who is questionable.  Jimmy Butler (21.5 PPG) will return tonight but is still hobbled.  The Heat managed just 99 points last time out against the Indiana Pacers, which is really poor considering Indiana plays at a fast pace and is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

Portland ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while Miami ranks 13th.  Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in pace with the Blazers 17th and the Heat 15th.  The Blazers will be looking to slow it down even more without Lillard and Simons.

These teams are also familiar with one another having played on October 26th with 217 combined points in the game Lillard got hurt.  Portland is 25-10 UNDER in its last 35 games when revenging a same-season loss.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Blazers last eight road games.  The UNDER is 17-5 in Blazers last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Heat last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Suns/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 217

Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER tonight.  Phoenix will be without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and could be without Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG) again.  Philadelphia will be without James Harden (22.0 PPG, 10.0 APG) until December.

These teams both play a style that favors the UNDER as well.  The Suns rank 18th in pace while the 76ers rank 21st.  The Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency as well.  The 76ers are a much better team defensively without Harden.  They will also be a much slower team to try and run their offense through Embiid now without Harden.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five road games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 39-19 in 76ers last 58 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last six home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -5

The New Orleans Pelicans have just one loss this season when Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas have been healthy at the same time.  That came in overtime on the road at Atlanta on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have been absolutely dominant otherwise.

Now I expect the Pelicans to make easy work of the Indiana Pacers, who play zero defense and won't have any answers for the offensive firepower of the Pelicans, who also play defense.  The Pacers rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans rank 9th.  The Pelicans rank 8th in offensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 18th.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) -0 off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Pacers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +3.5

The Utah Jazz have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to start the season.  Everyone thought they were tanking with the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades.  But they had run their course, and it was time for some new faces.  The Jazz got a better haul back in those trades than they are getting credit for.

That has proven to be the case with a 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS start this season with seven outright victories as underdogs.  Newcomers Markkanen (22.2 PPG), Sexton (13.6 PPG), Olynyk (12.7 PPG), Beasley (10.7 PPG), Vanderbilt (9.0 PPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.0 PPG) are gelling nicely with holdovers Clarkson (17.4 PPG) and Conley (11.9 PPG, 7.4 APG).

The Los Angeles Clippers are one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS with their five wins coming against the Rockets (twice), Spurs, Kings and Lakers.  Four of those five wins came down to the wire.  The four losses all came by 8 points or more and two came to the Thunder.  

So they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NBA, which makes their poor start even more concerning. The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Luke Kennard tonight as well.  They just aren't that good without Leonard, their best player.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

15* Blazers/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  Portland and Phoenix just played last night with the Blazers pulling the 108-106 upset for 114 combined points.  Now the books have set the total at 216.5 points for the rematch.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and both teams are tired so they won't be looking to push the tempo.

These teams don't like pushing the tempo, anyway.  Phoenix ranks 26th in the NBA in pace while Portland ranks 23rd.  Both teams have also been good defensively this season as the Suns rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Blazers rank 12th.

Injuries to both teams will also help aid us in cashing this UNDER.  Portland is already without Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and could be without Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG) tonight, their two best players and franchise pieces.  Phoenix could be without both Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG), two key weapons for them on offense.  All three of those guys are questionable.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Blazers last seven road games.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Blazers last 21 games overall.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +8

It's time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are the last undefeated team in the NBA at not only 8-0 SU, but 7-1 ATS.  There has been a discount on the Bucks this season because they are missing three key players, which is part of the reason for their ATS success.  But there is no discount tonight.

You're asked to lay 8 points on a Bucks team that is in the worst spot they have been all season.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.  Being short-handed adds to the difficult spot as this is a very tired team right now.

The Thunder are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with all four losses coming by 12 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in every game.  They have also faced a much more difficult schedule than the Bucks have so they are battle-tested.  They have outright upset wins over the Clippers (twice) and the Mavericks.  They also took the Nuggets to the wire twice and the Timberwolves to the wire twice.

Oklahoma City is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games overall.  They are consistently catching too many points on the road over the past couple seasons, and that is the case again tonight given the terrible rest spot for the Bucks.  Take the Thunder Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans ML +110

Brandon Ingram (23.0 PPG), Zion Williamson (21.7 PPG), C.J. McCollum (20.6 PPG), Jonas Valanciunas (14.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy III (14.0 PPG) is one of the best starting lineups in the NBA.  When these five have all been healthy at the same time this season, the Pelicans have dominated.  I'll gladly back them as underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks tonight to pull the upset.

The Hawks are 5-3 but have taken advantage of a very easy schedule.  Their five wins have come against Houston, Orlando, Detroit (twice) and New York.  They lost by 17 to Charlotte, by 8 at Milwaukee and by 30 at Toronto.  They are without Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trey Young is questionable tonight with an eye abrasion.  Whether he plays or not, the Pelicans are the better team in this game.

The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Atlanta is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games following an upset win as an underdog.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4

The New Orleans Pelicans get Brandon Ingram back from a concussion tonight and are back to full strength.  Zion Williams missed a couple games earlier this season.  When Ingram (22.0 PPG), Williamson (22.8 PPG), McCollum (20.7 PPG) and Valanciunas (15.6 PPG) are on the floor at the same time, this Pelicans team is a title contender.

Now they will want to prove that tonight by taking down the defending champion Golden State Warriors.  They are in a great spot to do it as the Pelicans had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days.  They are not only healthy, but rested and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a 129-130 upset loss in Orlando last night.  The Warriors are now 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and the most disappointing team in the NBA.  They have simply quit playing defense this season and are in the midst of a championship hangover that won't end tonight given the terrible spot for them.  The Warriors are allowing 122.2 points per game and 47.4% shooting.

The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  New Orleans is also 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +3.5

The Toronto Raptors are flying under the radar this season.  They didn't make any offseason moves of note and kept their core together.  That core is better than it gets credit for, and the Raptors have a lot of chemistry to start the season as a result.

They have opened 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with two of their losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  Their lone blowout loss came to Philadelphia after beating the 76ers two days prior, which is understandable in that flat spot.  The Raptors have been without Fred VanVleet in their last two games, and it hasn't matter as they crushed Atlanta 139-109 and San Antonio 143-100.  

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and may get VanVleet back tonight.  They take on a Mavericks team that has been overvalued of late going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset by the Thunder as 10.5-point home favorites, needed a late run to beat the Magic by 9 as 9.5-point home favorites and needed a late run to beat the Jazz by 3 as 6.5-point home favorites.  If those three teams are hanging around with them, I like Toronto's chances of winning this game outright.

The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Mavericks.  They have great length to be able to defend Luka Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA can.  Toronto is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Toronto is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset road wins over the Nets and Wizards while also covering in a 7-point loss in a rematch with Brooklyn.  Now they have had the last three days off to get their chemistry even better heading into this showdown with the Miami Heat.

Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 9th game in 15 days, which is about as difficult a spot as you will see in the NBA.  The Heat are already struggling going just 4-5 SU despite playing six of their first nine games at home.  They are just 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS on the road.

This tough schedule to start the season has the Heat already battling injuries.  They will be without Jimmy Butler tonight, and Bam Adebayo is questionable with a knee injury, so they could be without their two best players.  The Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and on three days' rest.

The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  Take the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -3

The Washington Wizards are fully healthy right now and starting to form some chemistry between Beal, Porzingis, Kuzma, Morris and Barton.  They are coming off a 121-111 road win at Philadelphia and I like their chances of crushing the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

Speaking of chemistry, the Nets have none of it.  Brooklyn is 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS to start the season with the two wins coming at home over the Pacers by 7 and the Raptors by 4.  Five of their six losses have come by 9 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive.

It has gotten worse before it's going to get better.  The Nets fired head coach Steve Nash, and Durant was stunned by the move.  Now Kyrie Irving has been suspended for doing Irving things.  And Ben Simmons, who was supposed to be their savior, is out with a knee injury.  I don't see any way the Nets can even be competitive tonight with Durant and a bunch of scrubs around him.

The Nets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Washington is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Brooklyn.  The Nets are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall.  Washington should be a bigger home favorite over the hapless Nets tonight.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the single-most underrated team in the NBA.  They did it last season by being the best covering team in the league despite a poor record.  And they're doing it again this season, opening 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS while consistently catching too many points.

The Thunder were competitive in their three losses falling by 7 as 11-point dogs at Minnesota, by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver and by 10 as 9.5-point home dogs to Minnesota.  They have won four straight since with three outright upsets over the Clippers by 14 as 5.5-point dogs, the Clippers by 8 as 7-point dogs and the Mavericks by 6 as 10.5-point dogs.  They also beat the Magic by 8 as 3.5-point favorites.

As I stated, the Thunder only lost by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver.  Now they'll be out for revenge on the Nuggets and are catching 7 points at home in the rematch.  That's not a big enough adjustment for home-court advantage, especially with the way the Thunder are playing right now.  Plus they are expected to get Josh Giddey (12.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.3 APG) back after missing the past three games.

The Nuggets are trying to find chemistry getting both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury this season.  It has been a shaky start with the Nuggets going 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS including a 21-point loss at Utah, a 25-point loss at Portland and an 11-point loss to the Lakers as they are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games.  Murray is only averaging 13.8 points per game and shooting 41.5% from the field so he has been a shell of his former self.

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Nuggets with losses by 5, 6 and 4 points along with two outright upsets by 12 and 14 points.  Oklahoma City is 35-14-3 ATS in its last 52 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 13-1 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +11.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons after a 2-6 start, and to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks after a 6-0 start.  We saw this come to fruition last time out when the Pistons gave the Bucks all they wanted in 108-110 road loss as 13-point dogs.

The Pistons were even playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 128-114 upset home win over the Warriors as 7.5-point dogs the night prior to playing Milwaukee.  That makes sense the line adjustment in the bad spot for the Pistons.  But now this line is 11.5 and both teams are on equal rest.

I'll gladly take the 11.5 points with the Pistons in this revenge spot.  It's a letdown spot for the Bucks, who are feeling fat and happy about being undefeated right now and won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Pistons for the 2nd time in 3 days.  The Bucks are still without Middleton, Connaughton and Ingles and cannot be this big of a favorite against almost anyone without them.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - a winning team from last season off four or more consecutive wins are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road teams (Detroit) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Milwaukee is 13-32 ATS in its last 45 games following three or more consecutive home wins.  The Pistons are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +6

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 93-95 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers as 9-point dogs.  Now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch, only a 3-point adjustment for home-court advantage and simply not enough for the revenge spot.

The Clippers have been one of the most disappointing, overrated teams in the NBA up to this point.  They are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming by exactly 2 points each over the Kings and Rockets.  They lost three games by 14 points or more and were upset by the Thunder twice.

It's not getting any better for the Clippers tonight as they will be without their two best defenders in Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington.  They just cannot form any chemistry right now with all of these guys in and out of the lineup.  They cannot be trusted as a 6-point road favorite over the Rockets with the way they've been playing to start the season.  Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +7

The Sacramento Kings have been undervalued since their 0-4 start against quality competition in which they were competitive in three of the four games.  They came back and upset the Heat as 4-point home underdogs and then won and covered at Charlotte.

I backed the Kings in both of those games, and I'm back on them again tonight in what is a very favorable spot for them.  While the Kings had yesterday off, the Heat just beat the defending champion Warriors 116-109 last night.

Not only is this now a letdown spot for the Heat, but they are also a very tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  They could choose to rest some players tonight as this is as tough a spot as you will ever see in the NBA.  That's why I'm not concerned the Kings will be without De'Aron Fox, plus they came back from 15 points down at halftime to beat the Hornets by 7 without Fox in the 2nd half.

The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Heat OVER 226

Two teams that have taken massive steps back defensively this season square off tonight in what should be a shootout in Miami.  The Warriors are clearly suffering a championship hangover and not playing defense, while the Heat lost their defensive leader in PJ Tucker to the 76ers in the offseason.

Golden State ranks just 21st in defensive efficiency allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions.  Miami hasn't been much better, ranking 20th in allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions.  And the Warriors play a lot of possessions as they rank 1st in the NBA in pace, while Miami has upped the tempo a little this season to 12th in pace.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Warriors' seven games this season with combined scores of 232 or more points in all seven games.  They are scoring 118.7 points per game and allowing 122.0 points per game on the season.  Miami's last two games have seen 232 and 233 combined points coming into this one.

Miami is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games vs. Pacific Division opponents.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Miami.  The OVER is 43-21 in Heat last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Nets TNT No-Brainer on Chicago ML +110

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory following two consecutive losses.  They have had the last two days off to get rested and ready to take down the Brooklyn Nets after last playing on Saturday.

Taking down the Nets has not been a problem this season.  Brooklyn is 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS with its lone wins both coming at home over the Raptors by 4 and the Pacers by 7.  They have four losses by 9 points or more this season and just aren't forming any chemistry with Simmons, Durant and Irving.

Now the spot is a terrible one for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They could choose to rest some players tonight.  Either way, the Nets rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Bulls will be able to do whatever they want to offensively.

Brooklyn is 6-32 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite.  The Nets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a good 3-point shooting team that makes at least 36% of their attempts.  Brooklyn is 13-37-1 ATS in its last 51 home games overall.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets OVER 236

Two teams that like to push the tempo and play little defense square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Brooklyn Nets.  The Pacers rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season while the Nets rank 10th.

Both teams are really struggling to start the season because they don't play defense.  Indiana ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions.  Brooklyn ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Nets and Pacers with combined scores of 241, 260, 250, 203, 243 and 239 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Those 260 and 250-point efforts came in their final two meetings last season, and they just combined for 241 points in their first meeting this season.

The OVER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games overall.  The OVER is 23-5-1 in Nets last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

The Sacramento Kings were undefeated in the preseason under first-year head coach Mike Brown, one of the best hires of the offseason.  But they got off to an 0-4 start to the regular season with three close losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.

The Kings finally got on the board with a win in a 119-113 home win over Miami last time out to get their swagger back.  And now they are fresh and ready to go as they head to Charlotte to take on the worst opponent they have faced yet this season.  While the Kings will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight.  

It's a terrible spot for the Hornets, who just upset the defending champion Warriors as 10-point underdogs.  It's now a letdown spot for them as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight.  Making matters worse is the Hornets will be without their two starting guards in La'Melo Ball and Terry Rozier, while the Kings are fully healthy.

The Kings are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Charlotte) - a good offensive team scoring 118 or more points per game, in the first half of the season are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Kings Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Suns OVER 227

The Phoenix Suns are really clicking offensively this season.  They rank 4th in offensive efficiency at 114.4 points per 100 possessions.  They followed up a 134-105 win over the Warriors with a 124-111 win over the Pelicans.  De'Andre Ayton was injured early in that win over the Pelicans and will miss this game, so the Suns will have to play more of a small ball lineup, which benefits the OVER.

The Houston Rockets are once again terrible defensively this season and play at a fast pace.  The Rockets rank 23rd in defensive efficiency allowing 113.6 points per 100 possessions.  They rank 5th in pace at 105.2 possessions per game.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Rockets and Suns with combined scores of 241, 245, 204, 234, 246 and 263 points with none of those games going to overtime.  As you can see, five of the last six meetings have seen 234 or more combined points.  

The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Phoenix.  The OVER is 8-1 in Rockets last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs are both off to 4-2 starts this season.  The difference is the Timberwolves are a real contender in the West, while the Spurs are a pretender.  This surprising start will be forgotten pretty quickly when the Spurs come back down to reality.

San Antonio has caught a lot of teams sleeping on them and taken advantage.  The Timberwolves will not be sleeping on them.  They were one of the teams that were upset by the Spurs 106-115 at home as 8.5-point favorites.  But they came back and pounded the Spurs 134-122 as 9.5-point favorites in the rematch two days later.  And now they won't be taking them lightly, plus we are getting a better value on them as only 5.5-point favorites in this 3rd meeting when the Spurs won't have much home-court advantage.

Also, San Antonio won't have its second-best player in Devin Vassell, who averages 19.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this season.  They could also be without Josh Richardson, who is averaging 11.7 points per game and making 45.2% from 3-point range.  He is questionable for this one.  Either way, the Timberwolves will win this game going away.

Minnesota owns San Antonio.  The Timberwolves are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs with all seven victories coming by 6 points or more.  Minnesota is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 Sunday games.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets OVER 236

Two teams that like to push the tempo and play little defense square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets rank 5th in the NBA in pace this season while the Pacers rank 11th.

Both teams are really struggling to start the season because they don't play defense.  Indiana ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions.  Brooklyn ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 116.5 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Nets and Pacers with combined scores of 260, 250, 203, 243 and 239 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Those 260 and 250-point efforts came in their final two meetings last season, and it should be more of the same in their first meeting of 2022-23.

The OVER is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 games overall.  The OVER is 22-5-1 in Nets last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after an 0-4 start this season.  They are much better and more talented than they have shown to this point after going unbeaten in the preseason.  They just haven't been able to put it all together yet.  It's only a matter of time, and I expect the Kings to pick up their first win of the season tonight.  They were competitive in three of their four losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.

It's a great spot for the Kings as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They are fully healthy with the starting five of Fox, Murray, Heurter, Sabonis and Barnes all averaging double-figures scoring.  Murray is starting to show why he was among the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, averaging 17.7 points per game on 51.3% shooting and 41.7% from 3-point range.  Fox has taken his game to the next level averaging 30.5 points per game.

It's a terrible spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days overall.  They are coming off a loss to the defending champion Warriors, and it will be hard for them to be as motivated to face the Kings as they were the Warriors.  The Heat are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS this season and have been a major disappointment.  They have really slipped defensively with the loss of PJ Tucker, their leader on that end of the court.

The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Kings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Saturday games.  The Kings are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers ML -115

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers.  They have opened 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS through their first five games while being favored in four of those five games.  Now we are getting them at basically even money here against the Toronto Raptors.

Not only will the 76ers be motivated from this poor start, they'll also be out for revenge from a 109-119 loss at Toronto on Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge just two days later here on Friday.  Toronto is not going to shoot 54.8% again like they did in that first meeting.

Toronto is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  The Raptors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 50-21 (70.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 113-118 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.  Now they get to host the Hawks again here two days later and are 7-point underdogs in the rematch.  They will want it more tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons coming off four consecutive losses overall.  Three of those losses came on the road.  They are 1-1 at home this season with that 5-point loss to the Hawks being their lone defeat.  They are very healthy right now, while the Hawks are playing without Bogdan Bogdanovic.

This Hawks team is getting a lot of love for a 3-1 start against arguably the easiest schedule any team has faced this season.  They have played three home games against Houston, Orlando and Charlotte plus that road game at Detroit.  They lost by 17 to the Hornets and were in competitive games with both Orlando and Houston as well.

Atlanta is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Hawks are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games.  The Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win.  Detroit is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Atlanta.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +3.5

I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season after opening 0-3 SU but 2-1 ATS, so they have been competitive.  They also come in on three days' rest having last played on Sunday.

That extra rest and practice time is huge for this young team and first-year head coach Mike Brown, who led the Kings to a perfect preseason.  They are loaded with talent and that has shown even in the losses.  They lost by 7 at home to Portland after blowing a 7-point lead late.  They lost by 2 to the Clippers as 2.5-point home dogs, and they lost by 5 at Golden State as 10-point road dogs.

This is a terrible spot for the Grizzlies.  They will be feeling fat and happy after a 134-124 home win over the Brooklyn Nets.  They are off to a 3-1 start this season and it's a good time to 'sell high' on them.  They needed OT to beat the Knicks at home, only won by 7 at Houston after outscoring the Rockets by 12 in the 4th quarter, failing to cover as 7.5-point favorites.  And they lost badly 96-137 at Dallas as 6-point dogs.  

The Grizzlies are without Jaren Jackson Jr, Zaire Williams and Danny Green and it has really shown defensively as they rank 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Kings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Kings Thursday.

15* Mavs/Nets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Dallas ML -120

I love the spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are 1-2 this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points to the Pelicans and Suns.  They also crushed the Grizzlies 137-96 in between.  They took the Pelicans lightly last time out because they were without both Ingram and Williamson, and now they come back motivated for a victory tonight.

While the Mavericks are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Nets are a tired team right now.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  After losing 124-134 to the short-handed Grizzlies in Memphis on Monday, they lost 99-110 to the short-handed Bucks in Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now they are back home Thursday playing a Mavericks team that isn't short-handed.

The Nets are now 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season after also losing by 22 to the Pelicans at home in the opener.  Their lone cover came in a 4-point home win over the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites.  This team is still searching for chemistry with Irving, Durant and Simmons, and the fact of the matter is they don't have much help outside those three.  The Nets are also a terrible team defensively and that's not going to change with this personnel, which is why they cannot be trusted no matter how much offensive talent they have.

The addition of Christian Wood makes the Mavericks even more dynamic on offense.  Wood is averaging 24.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game in just 26 minutes per game for the Mavericks.  Doncic is playing at an MVP level with 34.7 points per game, 9.0 rebounds per game and 7.7 assists per game.  Spender Dinwiddie is filling in nicely for Jalen Bruson, averaging 18.0 points and 3.3 assists per game.

The Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Dallas is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 road games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Brooklyn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts.  The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -9

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 106-115 upset loss as 8.5-point home favorites to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday.  Now they get to face the Spurs at home just two days later and are 9-point favorites in the rematch.  

The books haven't adjusted enough for the revenge factor, plus the injury to San Antonio's best player in Devin Vassell, who is doubtful for this one.  Vassell is averaging 19.8 points, 5.0 rebound and 4.5 assists per game this season.  He had 23 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in that win over the Timberwolves while making five 3-pointers.  The Spurs have no chance of keeping this game competitive without him.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Spurs, who are coming off three straight upset road wins over the Pacers, 76ers and Timberwolves.  I think those teams took them lightly after all the offseason media attention they got about tanking, plus the 27-point loss to Charlotte in the opener.  Minnesota will not be taking them lightly tonight.

The Timberwolves are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Spurs.  They won all three meetings last season by 6, 10 and 25 points.  They'll get back to dominating this head-to-head series tonight, especially in revenge mode and with the Spurs missing Vassell.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on OVER 219.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing a lot faster this season as they rank 10th in the NBA in pace.  Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie are looking to push it more than Jalen Brunson did.  And the addition of Christian Wood makes the Mavericks dynamic on offense.  Wood is averaging 25.0 points per game and the Mavericks rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The Pelicans rank 6th in the NBA in pace this season.  They are also 4th in offensive efficiency.  I know they will be without Brandon Ingram tonight, but this total has been adjusted down because of it.  The Pelicans are still loaded on offense even without him, and I think they can do their part in getting us this OVER.

Both meetings in New Orleans last season went well OVER the total.  They combined for 243 and 246 points in the two meetings in New Orleans.  The OVER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in New Orleans.  The OVER is 7-1 in Mavericks last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Nets/Grizzlies Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 232

The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to be without their two best defenders in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks tonight.  Jackson will be out until Christmas, while Brooks should make his return soon.  But the Grizzlies have been atrocious defensively this season thus far and have had to play small ball and try and outscore the opposition.

The Grizzlies rank 26th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 114.5 points per 100 possessions.  They have been playing at a fast pace this season ranking 5th in the NBA in pace.  After combining for 251 points with the Rockets, the Grizzlies just combined for 233 points with the Mavericks last time out.

The Nets will get up and down with the Grizzlies here as they rank 9th in the NBA in pace.  They are forming better chemistry with each passing game and just got a key role player in Joe Harris back and could get back their other sharp shooter in Seth Curry tonight.  This team will be tough to tame on offense when Durant, Irving, Simmons, Harris and Curry are all on the floor at the same time.  They'll still be terrible defensively, though.  The Nets rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Grizzlies beat the Nets 132-120 for 252 combined points in their final meeting last season.  The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Memphis.  The OVER is 10-1 in Memphis last 11 home games following a division game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/76ers OVER 228

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and rookie Bennedict Mathurin take them.  Those three are playing well to start the season, but the Pacers are without their two best big men in Myles Turner and Daniel Theis, so they have had to go small ball.

We saw how that worked out two games back when the Pacers lost 134-137 to the Spurs for 271 combined points.  Then on Saturday they beat the Pistons 124-115 for 239 combined points.  Indiana ranks 1st in the NBA in pace at 108.4 possessions per game.  They are 11th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency as well.

Philadelphia is going to be ready to blow the doors off the Pacers.  They have opened 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS.  Look for them to continue trying to poor it on late as they try and pick up their first win of the season.  The 76ers are 20th in defensive efficiency this season, which has been their biggest problem.  They just gave up 114 point to the lowly Spurs while getting upset as 13.5-point favorites.  They also allowed 126 points to the Celtics in their opener.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The Pacers and 76ers have combined for 229 or more points in six of those seven meetings.  They combined for 253, 253 and 231 points in their final three meetings last season, respectively.  The OVER is 9-1 in Pacers last 10 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They also aren't looking to push the pace, especially with Chris Paul running the show for the Suns.  And now the Clippers trying to form some chemistry with Leonard, Wall, George and company all back healthy.  

Phoenix ranks 28th in pace through two games while the Clippers rank 16th.  The Clippers are also 3rd in defensive efficiency while the Suns are 14th.  The Suns are 29th in offensive efficiency while the Clippers are 27th.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Suns and Clippers with combined scores of 222, 199, 195 and 206 points.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings between the Suns and Clippers have seen 218 or fewer combined points with the UNDER going 7-2 in those meetings.

The UNDER is 35-17-1 in Suns last 53 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Suns last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.  Phoenix is 12-1 UNDER in its last 13 games following a road loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Pelicans opened the season with a 130-108 road win at the Nets as 3-point underdogs to get off and running this season.  Ingram had 28, Williamson 25 and McCollum 21 to lead the way as these guys are all gelling already.  They also got 15 points from Valanciunas and 16 from Trey Murphy III.

New Orleans came back with another 124-112 road win over the Hornets to cover as 7-point favorites.  Valanciunas had 30 points, Ingram 28, McCollum 21 and Williamson 16 in the win.  Now the Pelicans get to play their first home game, and fans will sell out the building in anticipation of getting to see Williamson back healthy.  It's going to be a raucous atmosphere in New Orleans tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jazz, who are coming off two shocking upset wins over the Nuggets and Timberwolves to start the season.  Many expected the Jazz to be one of the worst teams in the NBA after trading away basically everyone but Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.  While there is more talent on this team than they got credit for to start the season, they won't be able to hang with this Pelicans team tonight on the road in this atmosphere.  Utah is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 road games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +9

This is a great spot to fade the Denver Nuggets.  They are coming off a 128-23 upset win at Golden State as 5-point underdogs last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

The Thunder are rested coming in on two days' rest after last being seen hanging tough with the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 108-115 road loss as 10.5-point underdogs on Wednesday.  The Thunder were the best covering team in the NBA last season as they were way more competitive than most expected.  They lost a lot of close games, and if they lose this one it won't be by double-digits.

The Thunder have had the Nuggets' numbers in recent meetings.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the two losses coming by 4 and 6 points.  They also upset the Nuggets by 12 outright as 15.5-point dogs and by 14 as 6.5-point dogs.

The Thunder are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 road games.  Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days' rest.  The Thunder are 33-15-3 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Denver is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Pacers OVER 229

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and rookie Bennedict Mathurin take them.  Those three are playing well to start the season, but the Pacers are without their two best big men in Myles Turner and Daniel Theis, so they have had to go small ball.

We saw how that worked out last night when the Pacers lost 134-137 to the Spurs for 271 combined points.  I'm shocked this total is in the 220's as the Pacers are the ultimate 'OVER' team, playing at a fast pace and playing little defense.  Now they face another young, up and coming team in the Pistons that will enjoy getting up and down the floor with them.  The Pistons just gave up 130 points to the Knicks last night, who aren't known for being an offensive juggernaut.

The Pistons and Pacers combined for 238 and 235 points in two of their final three meetings last season.  The OVER is 6-0 in Pistons last six games overall.  The OVER is 8-1 in Pacers last nine games overall.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Indiana.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Pelicans opened the season with a 130-108 road win at the Nets as 3-point underdogs to get off and running this season.  Ingram had 28, Williamson 25 and McCollum 21 to lead the way as these guys are all gelling already.  They also got 15 points from Valanciunas and 16 from Trey Murphy III.

The Charlotte Hornets are without LaMelo Ball to start the season.  They go as he goes, especially offensively.  Points will be hard to come by for the Hornets until he returns as he averaged 20.1 points and 7.6 assists per game last season.  They are also missing Miles Bridges, who was charged with three counts of domestic violence.  He averaged 20.2 points per game and 7.0 rebounds per game last season.

I do like the re-hiring of Steve Clifford, who was the head coach of the Hornets from 2013 to 2018.  He says he wants to keep the up-tempo offense, but that's going to be hard without Ball tonight.  Charlotte averaged just 98.8 points per game in the preseason.  Their 129-102 win over the Spurs in the opener was more to do with San Antonio being the worst team in the NBA than anything.  They will get exposed here in this big step up in class, while the Pelicans take a big step down in competition after facing the Nets.

New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Charlotte.  Take the Pelicans in a blowout Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards ML -115

The Washington Wizards have a healthy Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis to start the season.  Porzingis flashed his massive potential with 22.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in 17 games with the Wizards after getting traded last season.  They added a true PG in Monte Morris from Denver, while also getting instant offense from Will Barton of the Nuggets.

It was an impressive 114-107 road win for the Wizards over the Pacers in their opener.  Beal had 23 points, Kyle Kuzma 22, Porzingis 15 and Barton 17 in the opener.  They held the Pacers to just 40% shooting for the game behind a great defensive effort as well.

The Bulls are a potent team when healthy, but that's not the case to start the season.  They were terrible after losing Lonzo Ball last season, and he remains out to start this season.  They are also without Zach LaVine Friday.  The Bulls are getting respect for their upset win at Miami in the opener, but Miami isn't as strong this season, and DeRozan isn't going to shoot as well as he did when he had 37 points on 14-of-22 shooting to lead the upset.  Roll with the Wizards Friday.

20* Clippers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are among the favorites to win the NBA title this season for good reason.  Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are back healthy together.  But they are loaded with depth as well by adding John Wall to go along with Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, Ivaca Zubac, Norman Powell, Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Terrence Mann.  No team has two bigger stars together, and no team has more depth than the Clippers.

The Lakers missed the playoffs last year and I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs again this season.  Anthony Davis and LeBron James cannot stay healthy, and they don't have the help around them they need.  Both are already banged up.  They will be starting alongside Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverly and Lonnie Walker IV.

Westbrook is a terrible fit for this team because he needs the ball in his hand so much and can't make open shots.  In fact, the Lakers are probably the worst shooting team in the NBA this season.  They have no depth with Austin Reaves, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones and Kendrick Nunn their top options off the bench now with key 6th man Dennis Schroder out with an injury.

The Lakers lost 123-109 to the Warriors in their opener.  They shot just 43% as a team and committed 21 turnovers.  That includes 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range.  Teams can continue to sag into the paint and force them to try and beat them from 3, which they cannot do.

The Clippers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers.  They one-sided nature of this series continues tonight with a blowout victory by the Clippers.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -1.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into the 2022-23 season due to not making the playoffs for 16 consecutive seasons.  They have a great chance to end that drought as they hired Mike Brown, who was the top assistant with the Golden State Warriors and has plenty of experience.  It was probably the best hire of the offseason.

Brown has loads of talent to work with as De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes and rookie Keegan Murray lead the way.  I know Murray will miss the opener, but I still believe the Kings have what it takes to get the job done.  No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Kings, who went 4-0 while outscoring opponents 117.3 to 89.8, or by an average of 27.5 points per game.   They added SG Kevin Huerter, and the depth is good with Malik Monk, Terence Davis, Richaun Holmes, KZ Okpala and Davion Mitchell coming off the bench.

I like Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons for the Blazers.  The problem is they don't have much help outside of those three.  That was evident last year when the Blazers went 2-21 after the All-Star Break with 11 of those losses by at least 25 points.  They are without Gary Payton II to start the season.  Josh Hart, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic are all replacement-level players who are going to be playing too many minutes with two of them starting.

The Blazers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Portland went 0-4 in the preseason against NBA teams and lost by 30 to this same Kings team.  They also lost by 33 to the Warriors and by 17 to the Jazz, who are terrible.  Chauncey Billups may just be a bust of a head coach even though he has a great reputation.  Take the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Brooklyn Nets were swept in four games by the Celtics last season and were a major disappointment.  They are getting a lot of respect to start this season, but it's unwarranted.  It's going to take some time for Ben Simmons to gel with Durant and Irving.  And there's not much depth behind those three, especially with their two key role players in Seth Curry and Joe Harris out for the season opener.

Brooklyn is 3-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-28-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Pacers OVER 227.5

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  Now they face a Washington team in the opener that finished 25th in defensive efficiency last season.

The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Myles Turner take them.  They added Rookie of the Year candidate Bennedict Mathurin in the draft.  I think this team will be just fine offensively, but again they don't have many plus defenders.  And Carlisle clearly isn't concerned with them improving on that end.

The Wizards have a healthy Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis to start the season.  Porzingis flashed his massive potential with 22.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in 17 games with the Wizards after getting traded.  They added a true PG in Monte Morris from Denver, while also getting instant offense from Will Barton of the Nuggets.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Wizards and Pacers.  They have combined for 256 or more points in six of those eight meetings.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Pacers last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Celtics 2022 NBA Season Opener on Boston -2.5

There has been a lot of negative media attention surrounding the Boston Celtics this offseason due to the Ime Udoka suspension.  I think there will be value on the Celtics in the early going because of it, especially in the opener as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Now 34-year-old Joe Mazzulla becomes the youngest coach in the league.  I like everything I've heard from him and the players since the suspension and they'll be just fine.  Few teams have a deeper roster than the Celtics, plus they added Malcolm Brogdon who averaged 19.1 points and 5.9 assists last season in Indiana.  They only real key loss is Robert Williams due to injury.

Conversely, there is a ton of hype surrounding the Philadelphia 76ers this offseason.  That's because James Harden finally came into a training camp in shape.  Well, Harden is still past his prime, and it's sad that people celebrate a player actually coming into camp in shape.  Harden is one of the most overrated players in the NBA, in shape or not.  

The 76ers do not have the depth that the Celtics do this season.  And I would take Boston's starting five over that of Philadelphia as well.  The Celtics are loaded with Tatum, Brown, Brogdon, Smart and Horford.  They are going to be tough to tame on offense, and all are plus defenders.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics finally lost two games in a row for the first time in these playoffs.  I love their chances of bouncing back in Game 6 tonight and forcing a Game 7 with the resiliency we've seen from this team all playoffs.

The Celtics blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead to the Bucks in Game 5 at home and lost to fall behind 3-2.  They proceeded to win Game 6 in Milwaukee by 13 and Game 7 at home by 28.  They had their chance to close out the Heat in Game 6 at home and lost by 8.  They went on to win Game 7 in Miami.  They are battle-tested in these clutch situations.

The hardest game is the close out game for the Warriors.  The lost their first close out game at Denver by 5.  The blew their first opportunity to close out the Grizzlies in a 39-point road loss.  They also blew their first opportunity to close out the Mavericks in a 10-point road loss.  So, they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their first close out game in all three series in these playoffs.  They know they have Game 7 at home if need be, so they won't be playing with the same kind of urgency the Celtics will be in Game 6.

A lot went wrong for the Celtics in Game 5, not the least of which was a favorable whistle for the Warriors at home.  I think the Celtics will get the favorable whistle at home in Game 6.  Plus, they aren't going to lose the turnover battle 18-6, and they aren't going to miss 10 free throws again.  Those were the biggest differences in the game.

Boston is 11-1 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  The Celtics are 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Boston is 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston +4

The Boston Celtics have been a very resilient bunch all season and in the playoffs.  Look for them to bounce back following a 10-point home loss in Game 4 that evened the series.  Now they are catching too many points in Game 5 on the road, where they have actually played their best basketball in these playoffs.

The Celtics are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their 13 playoff road games.  They won three out of four in Miami last series, two out of three in Milwaukee and swept the Nets on the road.  They haven't lost two games in a row the entire playoffs.  The Celtics are now 9-0 SU in their last nine games following a defeat.

Boston is 10-2 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Monday.

25* NBA Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Celtics UNDER 214.5

Usually as a playoff series goes on the oddsmakers set the totals lower and lower.  Teams become more familiar with one another and it favors defense and low scoring games.  But that hasn't been the case in this series, and thus there's a ton of value on the UNDER 214.5 in Game 4.

The Game 1 total closed 214.5, the Game 2 total closed 213.5 and the Game 3 total closed 214.  So they have been pretty consistent with setting these totals.  They haven't had to lower them because two of the first three games went over the total.  But I have a lot of reasons to believe Game 4 will go UNDER this number.

This series has been played at a very slow pace, and this is likely going to be the slowest-paced game of them all thus far.  The Warriors and Celtics cannot keep shooting this well from 3-point range.  The Celtics are 49-of-113 (43.4%) through three games, while the Warriors are 49-of-122 (40.2%) for the series.

I cashed the Celtics in Games 1 and 3 and the UNDER in Game 2.  I am now 12-0 my last 12 playoff picks involving the Celtics.  I think Game 4 will be played similarly to Game 2 where it was a physical game and refs let them play.  So much is at stake here with the series basically on the line, so this one will be played close to the vest.  The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Friday.

20* Warriors/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -3.5

Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors got away with murder in Game 2.  That's the reason they won that game as the officials simply let them play.  They won't get away with murder in Game 3 in Boston, and thus the Celtics are the better team and will fire back after getting embarrassed.

Boston is 7-0 ATS after scoring 90 points or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Celtics are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  They are winning by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  

The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  They have been resilient all season, especially in the playoffs.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Boston is 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors played in a shootout in Game 1 with the Celtics winning 120-108 behind a massive 4th quarter.  Game 1's in the playoffs tend to be higher scoring because teams aren't familiar with one another yet.  But the longer the series goes, the more familiar they become and the more it favors the UNDER.

These teams have had two days in between games to game plan after seeing what happened in Game 1.  Both teams played poor defense and lost open shooters with easily correctible mistakes.  There will be fewer defensive mistakes in Game 2, and as a result there's no way both teams shoot as well as they did in Game 1.

The Celtics shot a ridiculous 21-of-41 (51.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  The Warriors were 19-of-45 (42.2%) in Game 1.  Neither team is going to shoot as well again, especially the Celtics.  It was actually played at a pretty slow pace, and that slow pace will help us cash this UNDER in Game 2.

These are the top two teams in defensive efficiency this season with the Warriors 1st and the Celtics 2nd, so it's no surprise they made the NBA Finals.  Boston is 11-3 UNDER when playing with two days' rest this season.  Golden State is 7-0 UNDER in home games when playing on two days' rest this season.  The UNDER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings, including 7-1 in the last eight meetings at Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Golden State Warriors have been off since May 26th.  That's a full week off and sometimes rest can be a bad thing.  I think that will be the case for the Warriors, who will be rusty now after building up a bunch of momentum in beating the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks.

I think the Warriors have had an easy path to the NBA Finals.  They avoided the Suns, played two banged up teams in the Nuggets and Grizzlies, and played a Mavericks team that had no answer for Stephen Curry.  The Celtics have the answer in defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, plus guys like Jaylon Brown can switch on him when Smart is out of the game.

I think the Celtics got the perfect amount of rest they needed.  They had just three days off in between games to let both Smart and Robert Williams heal.  The Celtics have earned their way into the NBA Finals by beating Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the Nets, the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, and the top seed in the Miami Heat.  They won Game 7's each of the last two series and appear to be a team of destiny.  They should carry over that momentum into Game 1 today.

The Celtics are the only NBA team with a winning record against the Warriors during this dynasty run.  Boston is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Golden State.  The Celtics are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 road games, including 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine trips to Golden State.  Bet the Celtics in Game 1 Thursday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Boston ML -140

I have gone a perfect 6-0 in this series picking the winning side in all six games.  I am confident Boston is the better team and will win this series, but I'm not willing to lay the current -2.5 or -3.  I will lay the -140 on the Money Line instead, which is something I rarely do but it's warranted here in a game that could come down to the wire.

Give Miami credit for its valiant effort in Game 6 and I had the Heat +9, but I didn't expect them to win outright.  Jimmy Butler refused to lose and scored 47 points after looking terrible the previous two games.  He simply gutted them to a victory.  But that effort will have taken a lot out of Butler, and the Heat are just 6-8 SU & 6-8 ATS after Butler scores 30 points this season.  They are also 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS without Tyler Herro this season.  Their injury report looks a lot worse than Boston's coming into Game 7.

I trust Boston to win this game because of what they have shown in the playoffs thus far.  They swept the Nets, then beat the defending champion Bucks in seven games.  It was the way they won that series that gives me confidence they will come up clutch in Game 7 tonight.  The Celtics blew a double-digit lead at home against the Bucks in Game 5 and everyone left them for dead.  Instead, they went into Milwaukee and won Game 6 108-95 and then won Game 7 at home 109-81.  They are ready for this moment.

The Celtics have had no problems winning on the road in the playoffs, going 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in playoff road games.  Boston is now 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Celtics are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics on the Money Line in Game 7 Sunday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +9

I am a perfect 5-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3, the Celtics in Game 4 and the Celtics in Game 5.  After cashing in the Celtics the past two games, I'm going back with the Heat in Game 6 tonight.

This line has simply gotten out of control.  The Celtics go from being 5 and 6.5-point home favorites in Games 3 and 4 to whopping 9-point favorites in Game 6.  That is too big of an adjustment, and it's an overreaction from the Celtics winning the last two games in blowouts.

The Heat aren't going to only score 80 and 82 points again while shooting 31.9% and 33.3% from the field, respectively.  They will shoot it better, especially from 3-point range where they have gone a combined 15-of-79 (19%) the past two games.  This Miami team has too much pride to go home without a fight as they are a bunch of dogs.  And the injury report came back better than expected for them as they should have almost everyone available tonight.

Miami is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following two straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks feel like they are playing on house money.  Everyone counted them out when they were down 3-0 in this series.  They came out relaxed in Game 4 and won 119-109 over Golden State.  Now they will come out relaxed in Game 5 and give the Warriors a run for their money.

Dallas has two very poor shooting games in this series which explains two of their losses.  They had the Warriors by the balls in Game 2 but blew a 14-point halftime lead.  They are much better shooting team than they have shown in this series, and they finally knocked some down in a 20-of-43 (46.5%) performance from 3 in Game 4.

Remember, the Mavericks were down 3-2 to Phoenix and everyone counted them out last series.  They proceeded to crush the Suns at home by 27 in Game 6 and by 30 on the road in Game 7.  They really don't feel like they are out of this series.  I don't think the Warriors were in it mentally in Game 4 with the shooting in Texas and Steve Kerr having such a big reaction to it.  I question their head space in Game 5 as well.  They struggled to close out he Grizzlies last series, and it won't be easy closing out this feisty Mavs team, either.

There's value with the Mavericks when you consider they were 5.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 and 6-point road underdogs in Game 2, and now they are 7 or 7.5-point road underdogs in Game 5.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -1.5

I'm 4-0 in this series cashing the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2, the Heat in Game 3 and the Celtics in Game 4.  I am going to fade the Zig Zag theory here tonight and get back on the Celtics for a couple of different reasons, not the least of which is the obvious fact that the Celtics are the better team based on what we've seen so far.

The Celtics are two poor quarters away from sweeping the Heat in this series.  They have been dominant when Robert Williams has played, and he is expected to play tonight.  In fact, the Celtics could be at full strength tonight if Marcus Smart (questionable) plays.

The Heat are really banged up.  Jimmy Butler is going to play but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4, making just 3-of-14 shots without getting to the FT line once.  He can't be as aggressive as he normally is with the bum knee that forced him to sit the entire 2nd half of Game 3.  Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are all nursing injuries and questionable.  There's rumors the Heat could have some COVID issues as well.

The Celtics are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  They take control of this series with a win and cover in Game 5 tonight.  Bet with the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Dallas PK

The Dallas Mavericks just haven't gotten anything in this series from players outside Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie.  This after they shot their way into the conference finals on the backs of Doncic and their role players hitting open 3's.  They haven't hit those 3's in this series with the exception of Game 2, which they controlled throughout before falling apart in the 4th quarter.

The Mavericks shot just 13-of-45 (28.9%) from 3 in Game 3 and just 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3 in Game 1.  They aren't going to continue shooting this poorly in Game 4 tonight.  Look for guys like Finney-Smith, Bullock and Kleber to start hitting more of their open looks in this one.  I think this is where it all comes together for the Mavericks as they show their pride for one game and avoid the sweep.

Conversely, I fully expect the Warriors to let down in Game 4 tonight knowing they all but have this series wrapped up.  We saw them let down last series against Memphis when they lost 95-134 as 4-point road favorites in Game 5 with a chance to clinch.

The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Dallas is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -6.5

I'm 3-0 in this series.  I cashed in the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2 and the Heat in Game 3.  I'm back on the Celtics in Game 4 and riding the Zig Zag Theory in this series because it's so evenly matched that it works.  The Zig Zag Theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.

The Celtics gave away Game 3 by committing 21 turnovers and the Heat capitalized, outscoring Boston 33-9 in points off turnovers.  Miami got off to such a strong start that they were able to hold on to a 26-point lead even though it was eventually cut to 1 late in the 4th.  Boston fell short, but they will respond in a big way like they have all season following a defeat.

The Heat won despite Jimmy Butler sitting out the entire 2nd half with knee inflammation.  I can't possibly imagine he's anywhere near 100% two days later after sitting out the most important 24 minutes of the season thus far.  He may play, but he won't be himself.  The Celtics could get back Robert Williams and are otherwise fully healthy for Game 4 tonight.

Boston is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet the Celtics in Game 4 Monday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

I love the spot for the Mavericks Sunday.  Their season is on the line as they are down 0-2.  They didn't show up in Game 1, but they fought hard in Game 2 and showed they could play with the Warriors.  Golden State was just unconscious in the 2nd half and the Mavericks went cold.

Dallas has been much better at home than on the road in the playoffs as their role players have really stepped up to help out Luka Doncic.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games while winning those five games by an average of 15.4 points per game.  Dallas is 34-13 SU at home this season as well.

The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Mavericks are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Sunday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-7 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Miami and Boston is definitely evenly matched.

I cashed in the Heat in Game 1 and came back with an easy winner on the Celtics in Game 2 in this series.  Now I'm back on Miami in Game 3.  This is way too big of an adjustment for the Celtics' 25-point blowout win in Game 2.  The Heat go from being 1-point favorites to 6.5-point underdogs, a 7.5-point adjustment which is too big for home-court advantage.

Boston isn't going to shoot 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range again, and Miami isn't going to shoot as poorly (10-of-34, 29.4%) from 3-point range as they did in Game 2.  The Heat have been an extremely resilient team all season and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder off that blowout defeat.

Miami is 16-5 ATS following an upset loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-6 SU & 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

It was a tough spot for the Mavericks in Game 1 coming off their Game 7 win at Phoenix.  They were flat and nothing went right.  They shot 36% from the field and 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3-point range.  Meanwhile, the Warriors shot 56.1% from the field and won in a 112-87 blowout.

But this series will be much more competitive than Game 1 showed.  And now the Warriors go from 5.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 6.5-point favorites in Game 2, which is an overreaction and the wrong adjustment.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Mavericks, who went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Warriors during the regular season.

The Mavericks are 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more this season.  Dallas is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games following a SU loss.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +3.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 13-6 SU & 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Boston and Miami is definitely evenly matched.

These have been my two favorite teams to back in the playoffs because I have believed both are underrated.  They are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA as well.  I cashed in Miami in Game 1, but I'm going the other way with Boston in Game 2.

The Celtics were without both Al Horford and Marcus Smart in Game 1.  Well, Smart is back for Game 2 but they will still be without Horford.  I think they can pull the upset here.  Jimmy Butler went off in Game 1 and won't be nearly as efficient.  It's hard to expect the Heat to shoot 30-of-34 from the FT line again, too.  The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry, plus Max Strus and P.J. Tucker are both banged up.

Boston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Celtics are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Boston is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on OVER 214.5

Game 1 in a playoff series is a great time to take the OVER.  Teams aren't familiar with one another yet and there tends to be a lot of defensive mistakes and turnovers on offense.  That tends to lead to easy, quick points.

I like the OVER in Game 1 of this series because the Warriors will control the tempo playing at home.  And the Warriors like to get up and down the floor, which is when they are at their best.  Only the Timberwolves and Grizzlies played at a faster tempo than the Warriors this postseason.

Two of the final three meetings in the regular season between these teams went well OVER this 214.5-point total.  They combined for 222 points at Golden State and 235 points at Dallas.  The one that stays under still saw 208 combined points and was due to a terrible shooting performance from the Warriors.

The OVER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Warriors last 21 games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -1.5

The spot in Game 1 favors the Miami Heat.  They closed out the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 6 on the road, so they have had the last four days off to rest and recover.  Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics have only one day to rest after beating Milwaukee at home in Game 7 on Sunday.

The Heat have a huge home-court advantage as they are 35-12 SU at home this season, including 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  They have won those nine straight home games by an average of a whopping 17.6 points per game with seven victories by double-digits.

These teams met in a very meaningful game late in the season with home-court advantage on the line and the Heat pulled the 106-98 upset as 5-point road underdogs.  Both teams were pretty much at full strength for that game.  Miami should be the better team in Game 1 tonight given the rest advantage.

Miami is 9-1 ATS following an upset win as a road underdog this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -6

Just take the home team in every game in this series and you win.  It has been that simple, and it's going to continue to be that simply Sunday with the Phoenix Suns winning in yet another blowout over the Dallas Mavericks at home in Game 7.

The home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the six games in this series.  The Suns only won by 7 in Game 1 but were crushing the Mavericks in the 4th quarter before a meaningless comeback late.  They went on to win by 20 in Game 2 and by 30 in Game 5.  The Mavericks won by 9 in Game 3, by 10 in Game 4 and by 27 in Game 6.  The Suns will now have their revenge in blowout fashion and close out this series.

Phoenix is 11-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite this season.  Phoenix is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings, including 10-3 ATS in the last 13 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 7 Sunday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 208.5

The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another and the more it favors defense and low-scoring games.  That's why it should be no surprise that UNDERS are 54-24 in the last 78 Game 7's in the NBA playoffs.

The Bucks have been the best UNDER team in these players.  The UNDER is 9-2 in their 11 games.  They are scoring just 104.7 points per game and allowing 100.5 points per game.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season and have been able to hold the Bucks in check.  They can guard Giannis better than any team in the NBA.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +8.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have thrived without Ja Morant all season.  They were 20-5 in the regular season without Morant, and now they are 1-1 in this series without him.  They deserved to win in a 98-101 loss at Golden State as 9.5-point dogs in Game 4, but couldn't hit their free throws.

Everything went right for the Grizzlies in their impressive 134-95 rout as 4-point home underdogs at home in Game 5.  And they won't go down without a fight in Game 6 tonight.  There's no way they should be catching 8.5 points against the Warriors tonight.

The Grizzlies are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games overall.  Memphis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as favorites.  Take the Grizzlies Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +2

Home-court advantage really hasn't mattered in this series.  The road team is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the five games.  After blowing a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter of Game 5, I expect the Boston Celtics to come back pissed off in Game 6 to save their season.

The Celtics alongside the Miami Heat have been the two best teams in the Eastern Conference all season.  It's hard to repeat, and I just think the Bucks are way more vulnerable than they were last season, especially without Kris Middleton.  The Celtics are the more complete team and I trust them more, so this series is going to a Game 7.

The Celtics are figuring out how to score on this Milwaukee defense as they have shot 50% or better in two consecutive games.  The Bucks have shot 43.5% or worse in four of the five games in this series, and that's largely due to being up against Boston's 2nd-ranked unit in defensive efficiency.  Few teams are better equipped to guard Giannis than the Celtics with all of the length they can throw at home and stay in front of him.

Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games against a good team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Celtics are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  Boston is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Friday.

15* Suns/Mavs ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -1.5

The Phoenix Suns have been the best team in the NBA all season.  They proved they were on another level when they won 110-80 in Game 5.  And now they are ready to close out this series with all the pressure on the Mavericks trying to stave off elimination.

Monte Williams and the Suns have the Mavericks figured out.  They rely so heavily on Luka Doncic, and they need the 'others' to make shots from 3-point range.  That's a lot to ask here with their season on the line.  The Suns can beat you several different ways, and the Mavericks have no answer for DeAndre Ayton inside.

The Suns are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as favorites.  Phoenix is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas.  Take the Suns in Game 6 Thursday.