20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192

These plays go hand in hand.  I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.

Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out.  It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto.  They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.

I look for those roles to be reversed tonight.  The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series.  This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.

Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.

Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.

Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer.  As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.

Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami.  The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996.  Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play of the second round of the NBA playoffs tonight in Game 2 of their series with the Washington Wizards. After losing Game 1, I fully expect them to bounce back with a blowout victory at home in Game 2.

I'm going to chalk the 96-102 Game 1 loss up to a hangover from the 7-game series against Atlanta, and also tremendous 3-point shooting by Washington.  Indeed, the Wizards went 10-of-16 (62.5%) from 3-point range, and Trevor Ariza was 6-of-6.  That's not going to happen again.

Indiana is 37-9 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 9.6 points per game.  This is one of the toughest places to play in the league, hands down.  Players went up to Roy Hibbert after Game 1 and asked for more from him, and I look for him to respond in Game 2.

Washington is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Indiana is 45-31 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 41-26 ATS following one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Wizards 1-12 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* Nets/Heat Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets continue to get no respect when facing Miami despite what they did during the regular season.  Everyone wants to just overlook the fact that the Nets went 4-0 against the Heat in the regular year, chalking it up to luck.  I'm not buying it.

Brooklyn set out this offseason to build a contender that could compete with Miami.  I believe it has done that while also proving that with the 4-0 record during the regular season.  I look for Miami to struggle once again in this opener of a seven-game series.

Dwyane Wade may have awoken a sleeping giant with the comments he made leading up to this series.  While Paul Pierce was quick to compliment Lebron James as one of the best players in the game, Wade took a different approach.  On Pierce and KG, Wade said "we thought we buried them in Boston".  That was obviously a shot at their age, and one these two and the team will not take lightly.

Jason Kidd's record against the Heat in recent years is telling.  Going back to the 2007-08 season, his teams have won 16 of the last 21 games he played in against Miami, and now he's 4-0 as a coach against the Heat.  The guy was a coach on the floor as a player, and he clearly knows ways to beat this team.

Brooklyn is 17-3 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two years.  Miami is 6-17 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Nets Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Thunder Game 1 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have an excellent chance to steal Game 1 of this series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  I'll just take the points for some insurance tonight folks.

We saw in the first round several road teams steal Game 1.  It's when the home team is most vulnerable, especially since both teams had just one day to prepare for this after playing in Game 7's on Saturday.

The only game the Clippers played all that poorly in against the Warriors in the opening round was Game 4, which was played on the same day of the Donald Sterling news, so none of the players showed up for it.  Their other two losses came by a combined five points.  I just think that situation has brought this team closer together, and they are going to be a dangerous team throughout the rest of the playoffs because of it.

I believe the Clippers match up very well with the Thunder.  Chris Paul is one of the best defenders in the league and will give Russell Westbrook fits.  Matt Barnes is one of the most underrated wing defenders in the league, and his length will help contain Kevin Durant.

The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference semifinals games.  The Clippers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Oklahoma City.  Los Angeles is 15-3 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets +3

The Brooklyn Nets staved off elimination in Game 6 with an emphatic 97-83 victory over the Toronto Raptors.  Now, I look for them to capitalize and win this series with a Game 7 victory, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Toronto has been one of the best stories in the league this year.  However, I just don't believe this inexperienced team has what it takes to win a winner-take-all Game 7.  Brooklyn, meanwhile, has several veterans that have been through these types of games.

That veteran presence showed up in Game 6 as they came together defensively and limited the Raptors to just 38.5% shooting.  Deron Williams led the way with 23 points, while fellow playoff vets Joe Johnson (17), Kevin Garnett (13) and Paul Pierce (12) all finished in double figures as well.

Brooklyn is 16-3 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Nets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  These four trends combine for a 35-4 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

I had Los Angeles picked to win this series all along.  However, I do not believe they should be a 7-point favorite over Golden State in Game 7 of this series Saturday night.  I'll take the points as a result.

Golden State is a very profitable 52-34 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  Amazingly, the Warriors are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games in the first round of the playoffs.  Time and time again they are undervalued, and 2014 has been no exception.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

25* Western Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockets/Blazers UNDER 213

Close out games tend to be played at a slower pace due to the value of each possession. We saw that last night as the Hawks and Pacers combined for 183 points and the Thunder and Grizzlies combined for 188.  The Clippers/Warriors game only saw 199 combined points despite a total set of around 210 in most places.

Finally, after a 4-0 OVER run through their first four games of this series, the Rockets and Blazers went UNDER in Game 5 as Houston won 108-98 at home for 206 combined points.  I look for a similar combined point total in Game 6 here tonight as the pace in this series has really slowed down, and that should continue.

Four of the last six meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, which is a complete fluke and has led to the inflation of their totals in this series, including tonight.  Those overtime games make it seem like these teams score a lot more points when they get together than they really do.  Plus, what are the chances of this game going to OT for a 5th time in 7 meetings?

Another reason I'm backing the UNDER is that Houston started Omer Asik and Dwight Howard, two centers, together for the first time all season in Game 5.  It worked as they held Portland to just 98 points and 43.4% shooting while deploying that defensive lineup.  The Rockets are sure to go back to that line-up in Game 6, which will help pave the way for the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Raptors/Nets Game 6 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

I'll back the UNDER in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets.  These close out games always seemed to be played at a slower pace because every possession is so important. 

We saw that last night as the Hawks and Pacers combined for 183 points and the Thunder and Grizzlies combined for 188.  The Clippers/Warriors game only saw 199 combined points despite a total set of around 210 in most places.

These teams exploded for 228 combined points in Game 5, which has forced the books to inflate this number.  Brooklyn shot 53.3% from the floor, 47.8% (11-of-23) from 3-point range, and shot 30 free throws.  Toronto shot 48.1% from the floor, 46.2% (12-of-26) from 3-point range, and 36 free throws. 

This game after a 166-point performance in Game 4 in an 87-79 Toronto victory.  Clearly, Game 5 was the aberration in this series.  I look for Game 6 to take on a similar tone to Game 4.  Toronto is 10-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

I look for the Oklahoma City Thunder to win Game 6 tonight on the road to force a Game 7.  They already showed that they could go on the road and win a must-win game when they were trailing 2-1 in Game 4, eventually winning in overtime to even the series at 2-2.

The Thunder have had poor luck in this series in the close games.  Each of the last four games have gone to overtime, and they have managed to lose three of the four.  Unlike the rest of this series, I look for Game 6 to be a blowout in the Thunder's favor given what's at stake with their season on the line.

Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  Memphis is 7-23 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Thunder are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.  Roll with the Thunder in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Pacers/Hawks Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -1

The Indiana Pacers are the better team in this series.  I still believe they are going to prevail in seven games, but it starts with a Game 6 victory in Atlanta.  I look for head coach Frank Vogel to make the proper adjustments to match Atlanta's small line-up that has been killing them.

Indiana went small in the second half of Game 5 and cut a 30-point deficit down to single-digits before eventually losing 97-107.  Of course, everything went right for the Hawks in that game as they shot 50% from the field and 55.6% (15-of-27) from 3-point range.  That won't happen again.

The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. loss.  The Hawks are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 2 days rest.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Take the Pacers in Game 6 Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Raptors UNDER 191

Once again, the books have set the bar too high in this Game 5 between the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors.  I backed the UNDER in Game 4 with an 87-79 Toronto victory and 166 combined points.  I look for Game 5 to take on a similar defensive tone.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in April games are 374-268 (58.3%) since 1996.

The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Nets last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Raptors last seven conference quarterfinal games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams in Toronto.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Mavericks/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks are showing excellent value as a 6.5-point underdog in Game 5 in what has been one of the most exciting series of the playoffs.  Three of the four games have been decided by 5 points or less and a combined 10 points.

The lone exception was in Game 2 when the Mavericks won 113-92 in an absolute blowout in San Antonio.  Dallas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this series with its two losses coming by 5 points in Game 1 and 4 points in Game 4.  This team is certainly not backing down from the defending Western Conference champions.

Dallas is 14-2 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.  The Mavericks are 92-56 ATS in their last 148 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 41-14 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss.  Dallas is 49-19 ATS in its last 68 road games.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 187.5

The books have once again set the bar too high in this Game 5 showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies.  They have done so because each of the last three games have gone to overtime in this series, which has inflated the number.

The chances of a fourth straight OT game are slim to none, and thus this game should finish well UNDER the posted total.  Heck, Game 4 finished with 181 combined points despite overtime in a 92-89 OKC victory.  In fact, three of the first four games in this series have finished with 186 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

As this series has gone on, points have been even harder to come by.  These teams combined for 170 points at the end of regulation in Game 3, and 170 points again at the end of regulation in Game 4.  These teams are so familiar with one another having played against each other in the playoffs last year, and that familiarity has led to great defense.

Memphis is 20-8 to the UNDER in its last 28 road games.  Oklahoma City is 29-11 to the UNDER in its last 40 games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Grizzlies last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Spurs TNT Monday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 203.5

Off back-to-back overs in this series, the total has been inflated Monday in Game 4 between Dallas and San Antonio.  This is the highest total set of the series, which alone lets you know that there's value with the UNDER.

These teams have shot lights out in the past two games, and that's just unlikely to happen again, especially anything close to what they did in Game 3.  In Game 2, the Mavs won 113-92 and shot 48.9% while the Spurs shot 50.0%.  In Game 3, the Mavs won 109-108 and shot 51.2%, while San Antonio shot 54.3%.

The longer a series goes, the more familiar a team is with its opponent.  That familiarity tends to lead toward low-scoring games.  That's why you'll see the totals in most series get lowered as it goes on.  Again, the fact that this is the highest total of the series thus far assures that we're getting some value here.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is  4-0 in Mavericks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Nets/Raptors Game 4 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* Clippers/Warriors Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* Bulls/Wizards Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +1.5

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

20* Thunder/Grizzlies Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 189

Simply put, if you were on board with me in Game 3 of this series, you got robbed as did I.  We had the UNDER 191 in Game 3, which was tied 85-85 at the end of regulation for 170 combined points.  We still nearly won in overtime, but ultimately got the loss due to some late free throws in a 98-95 (OT) Memphis victory.

So, two of the first three meetings in this series have gone to overtime.  Two were well UNDER the posted total at the end of regulation with 186 combined points in Game 1 and 170 in Game 3.  Dating back further, 10 of the last 13 meetings between these teams have seen 188 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

I look for Game 4 to take on a similar path as Game 3, but hopefully this time we don't get burned by overtime.  The chances of three of the first four games going to OT are slim to none, and that's the only way I foresee this Game 4 surpassing this posted total.  This will be a defensive battle between these bitter rivals who are very familiar with one another having played in the playoffs last year.

Memphis is 9-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less this season.  The Grizzlies are 45-24 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Spurs/Mavericks Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 202.5

The books have set the bar too high for this Game 3 showdown between the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks.  With the series tied 1-1, I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively to try and get a victory in this all-important Game 3.

After combining for just 175 points in Game 1, these teams combined for 205 points in Game 2.  I fully expect Game 3 to fall somewhere in between.  Dallas got a ton of easy points en route to a 112-93 victory in Game 2 thanks to 22 turnovers from San Antonio, which won't happen again. 

The Spurs shot 50.0% from the field while the Mavs shot 48.9% in Game 2, and I don't expect either team to connect at that high of a clip again.  Game 3 is where the defensive adjustments usually come into play, which makes it harder for each team to score.  That's why you have seen my taking a bunch of UNDERS in Game 3's.  The following trend explains why.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 42-12 (77.8%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Pacers/Hawks Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2

It's pretty much do or die for the Indiana Pacers in Game 4.  I fully expect them to rise to the occasion and to re-gain home-court advantage with a victory in Atlanta.  They are the better team, and with their season on the line, I look for them to come together in this one.

The Hawks had huge edges in 3-pointers and free throw shooting in Game 3 that allowed them to win.  They shot 37 free throws compared to 21 for Indiana, clearly getting the majority of the calls throughout the game, which won't happen again.  They also connected on 12 3-pointers for the game. 

Yet, Indiana had a chance to win late.  The Pacers were within a couple points in the 4th quarter despite shooting 37.6% from the field and 25.0% from 3-point range.  Basically, the Pacers couldn't have played a worse game, while the Hawks couldn't have played a whole lot better, or gotten any more breaks to go their way.  The chances of these things happening two games in a row are slim.

Indiana is 30-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 39-26 ATS off one or consecutive losses.  Atlanta is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win.  Roll with the Pacers in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Rockets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between Houston and Portland for Game 3 Friday.  After getting robbed on the UNDER in Game 2 with a total set of 215 points and a final combined score of 217, I have no doubt this Game 3 showdown will be more low-scoring.

Indeed, Game 2 was well on pace to go UNDER until the final few minutes where fouls piled up and neither team missed a free throw.  They combined for 57 points.  It was a 100-93 game with 3 minutes left, giving us 22 points to work with.  That would usually lead to an UNDER 90% of the time, but some bad breaks with fouls in the end led to 24 combined points over the final 3 minutes, which is almost unheard of.

Last night, all three Game 3's should have went UNDER the total.  The Hawks/Pacers game did and so did the Clippers/Warriors contest.  The only reason the Grizzlies/Thunder game went over was due to overtime in a game that was tied 85-85 at the end of regulation, which was 20 points under the posted total of 190.

Yes, I was on that under and a little bitter about it still today, but I can take some consolation in knowing I was on the right side of it, but again had a bad break to take the loss.  Game 3 is where I really like to play the UNDERS because it's where the adjustments have been made after the first two games to where both teams are very familiar with one another.  Familiarity leads to low-scoring games.

I especially like this 'UNDER' in the Rockets/Blazers Game 3 because the first two games have gone over the total, which has kept this line inflated.  Neither game should have went over because the first game went into overtime tied 106-106 at the end of regulation, while Game 2 had that onslaught of points late to get the over by a mere two points.  It would take another miracle for Game 3 to go 'over' as well, and I'll bank on it not happening.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 42-12 (77.8%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Bulls/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +3

This is the exact type of game the Chicago Bulls live for.  Everyone has counted them out after losing the first two games of this series at home, and everything except the guys inside that locker room believe this series is over.  This team plays its best when it is counted out.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Tom Thibodeau deserves Coach of the Year every year with what he has been able to do with this team.  The players take after their head coach, who has absolutely no quit in him.  He'll rally the troops and you'll see the Bulls put forth one of their best efforts of the season in Game 3.

Chicago actually played some of its best basketball on the road this season posting a 21-20 record away from home.  That included a 96-78 road victory in its last trip to Washington on April 5th.  Washington actually owns a worse home record (22-19) than a road record (24-19) on the year.

The Bulls have a lot of playoff experience on this team.  They know a series isn't over until its over.  Washington, meanwhile, is loaded with inexperience in terms of the playoffs.  While that actually worked in the Wizards' favor in the first two games of this series as they didn't know any better, I believe it will work against them here.  They will be content with their 2-0 lead and not be able to match the effort of the desperate Bulls in Game 3.

Thibodeau is 39-22 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago.  Thibodeau is 32-16 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago.  Randy Whitman is 27-51 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less as the coach of Washington.  The Wizards are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Chicago is 91-57 ATS in its last 148 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* Raptors/Nets Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

I expect Game 3 to play out similar to Game 1 where the Nets beat the Raptors 94-87 for 181 combined points.  I believe Game 2 was the aberration as these teams combined for 195 points in a 100-95 Toronto victory.

Game 2 was playing out just like Game 1 through three quarters.  They had combined for 40, 44 and 46 points in the first three quarters, respectively.  However, the teams exploded for 65 combined points in the fourth quarter, which made the final score seem like less of a defensive battle than it really was.

Kevin Garnett spoke openly about how Brooklyn's fourth quarter defense was unacceptable as it allowed the Raptors to put up 36 points.  You can bet that the Nets will come back with tremendous intensity defensively in Game 3.  Toronto will also bring it on that end of the floor like it has all season.  The Raptors rank 9th in the league in defensive efficiency.

This has certainly been a half-court series to this point, and I don't expect that to change in Game 3.  Brooklyn ranks 25th in the league in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.  Toronto ranks 23rd in pace at 94.4 possessions per game.  Neither team will look to run much in Game 3, especially with the adjustments that will be made, which will favor both defenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

The books are overreacting by raising this total set in Game 3 between the Clippers and Warriors compared to the first two games in this series.  I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what will be the lowest-scoring game of the series by far.

The defense was a little shoddy in Game 1 as they combined for 214 points with a total set of 211.  They Warriors played no defense in a 98-138 loss in Game 2, content that they had stolen Game 1.  It was such a big blowout that the starters got pulled in the second half and the points kept piling on with no defense being played due to the outcome already being decided.  Game 2's total was set at 212.5 points, and Game 3's is now 215.5.  As you can see, the value is with the UNDER because of it.

You can bet that both teams will be bringing 100% effort defensively in this Game 3.  Golden State wants to make amends for it's embarrassing Game 2 showdown, while Los Angeles wants to regain home-court advantage.  These teams are very familiar with how one another wants to play, which favors the defenses moving forward.  Adjustments will be made, especially considering these teams have had two days' rest to prepare, which again favors defense.

Prior to the first two games of this series, six of the last seven meetings between the Clippers and Warriors had seen 209 or fewer combined points.  I simply believe the first two games of this series were an aberration.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 40-12 (76.9%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 191

The books have set the bar too high in Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies.  This is the highest they have set the total for any of the first three games in this series.

They have done so following a high-scoring game in Game 2.  However, the only reason that game saw 216 combined points is because it went to overtime.  There were also a ton of fouls at the end of regulation that inflated the final score.  In fact, these teams combined for 65 points in the final period after combing for 40, 49 and 44 points in the first three.  This number has been inflated due to Game 2's final score.

The defensive intensity in Game 3 will be even higher than it was the first two games.  Both teams will be trying to get home-court advantage in the series with a win.  Also, having played twice already, these teams are familiar with one another, which favors the defenses.  They have also had two days off in between Game 2 and Game 3 to prepare, which will benefit the defenses as well with the adjustments that will be made.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 33-8 (80.5%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 29-10 in Thunder's last 39 games when playing on two days' rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Pacers/Hawks NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2

The Indiana Pacers get the nod Thursday as a small road favorite against the Atlanta Hawks.  They showed me something in Game 2 that I believe will carry over into Game 3.  They got back to playing with a passion in the second half, turning a 48-52 deficit at the break into a a 16-point blowout thanks to a 31-13 third quarter.

Indiana got back to playing defense and playing for one another, which is what got them to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year.  The Pacers held the Hawks to just 33 points after intermission.  I really believe we'll look back to that second half as a turning point for them in the playoffs, and it will carry over into Game 3 tonight.

The fact of the matter is that the Hawks are out-classed here.  They only made the playoffs because the Eastern Conference was down this year as their 38-44 record was good enough to get in.  If Indiana shows up to play, it should beat this team 90% of the time.  There's no question it shows up in Game 3 to try and regain home-court advantage.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1996.  The favorite is 26-10-1 ATS in the last 37 meetings.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

20* Blazers/Rockets TNT Wednesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215

This total is a complete overreaction from Game 1.  That contest was much more lower-scoring than the final score would indicate.  It was tied 106-106 at the end of regulation for a combined 212 points, which would have been UNDER the 215.5-point total. 

Instead, the combined for another 30 in overtime in a 122-120 Portland victory.  They needed 60 combined points in the fourth quarter just to get to 212 at the end of regulation.  The Blazers used the hack-a-Howard strategy, which got them back in the game. 

While that is concerning heading into Game 2, I'm not that worried about it because head coach Kevin McHale took Howard out after a couple of misses, then put him back in with under two minutes to go.  That way, the Blazers could not intentionally foul him.  I look for McHale to take him out even sooner if they try the same thing again.

This is the playoffs, and while both teams play at a fast pace normally, things slow down a little more in the postseason.  The defensive intensity gets kicked up a notch, which makes it easy to pick apart these high point totals by backing the UNDER.  I liked what I saw from both teams defensively in Game 1, and I look for that intensity to be even more extreme in this all-important Game 2.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Bulls TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Chicago -5

After blowing a 13-point lead and losing Game 1 of this series, I look for the resilient Chicago Bulls to bounce back with a Game 2 victory.  This has been a resilient bunch all season with the losses of Derrick Rose and Luol Deng.  They aren't about to pack it in now and give up on this series after losing one game.

Washington is a young team that probably doesn't quite understand needing to go for a team's throat when it is down.  John Wall, Bradley Bill and company won't come back with that killer mentality.  They are satisfied with taking one of the first two games in Chicago, and I look for that to show tonight.  The Bulls will be winning all of the effort plays in this one, which will help them win and cover this 5-point spread.

The Wizards are 10-25 ATS in thier last 35 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Washington is 102-149 ATS off two or more consecutive wins since 1996.  Chicago is 27-13 ATS off a home loss over the last three years.  The Bulls are 25-15 ATS revenging a loss this season.  Chicago is 12-1 (92%) ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Bulls in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Hawks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana -7

The Indiana Pacers have come too far to let a Game 1 loss affect them.  They have gotten the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, which was their goal coming into the year.  They will use it to their advantage and bounce back with a blowout home victory over Atlanta in Game 2.

Not a whole lot went right for the Pacers in Game 1 as they shot just 42.0% from the field and 69.6% from the free throw line.  A lot went right for Atlanta as it made 11 three-pointers and shot 24-of-29 (82.8%) from the free throw line.  It was the more aggressive team, getting to the line six more times than the Pacers (16-23), but I look for them to have a role reversal in that department.  Indiana will be the more aggressive team in this one.

I have a feeling we may look back to this Game 1 loss as the wake up call the Pacers needed to go on a big run to the Eastern Conference Finals.  The fact of the matter is that this team is still one of the best in the league, while the Hawks only made the playoffs because the East was so down this year.  They got in with a 38-44 record, so they really aren't that good.

Atlanta is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Hawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The favorites is 25-10-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings in this series.  Take the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

25* NBA Opening Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Clippers UNDER 212.5

After a high-scoring affair in Game 1, I look for the defense to be much better in Game 2 and for points to be harder to come by.  It won't take much considering they combined for 214 points in a 109-105 Golden State victory Saturday.

The perception is that the Warriors and Clippers don't play much defense, but that couldn't be further from the truth.  In fact, the Warriors actually rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers rank 7th in that same category, yielding 102.1 points per 100 possessions.

These teams did combine for 209 or fewer points in three of their four regular season meetings.  So, if anything, Game 1's 214-point total was the aberration.  Both teams made 10 3-pointers and shot over 40% from distance, which isn't likely to happen again.

The UNDER is 40-18 in Warriors last 58 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Clippers last 14 home games.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Wizards/Bulls Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington +4.5

The Wizards finally turned the corner this season. They ended a five-year playoff drought and turned all their promise into production. The front office has eyed the playoffs all season, making big moves to turn this team into a possible contender. The Wizards traded for Marcin Gortat in the preseason to make up for the loss of Emeka Okafor. They traded for Andre Miller, and signed veterans like Al Harrington and Drew Gooden.

However, it has been the emergence of a couple of young superstars that have made the difference. The 23-year-old John Wall (19.3 ppg, 8.8 apg) has turned into a real leader this season while playing in all 82 games. The 20-year-old Beal (17.1 ppg, 40.2% 3-pointers) can fill it up with the best of them. Gortat (13.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Nene (14.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have played well inside.

The most overlooked player on the entire team is Trevor Ariza (14.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.6 aspg, 40.7% 3-pointers), who does a little bit of everything. He will defend the best player on the other team night in and night out, and he has really improved his outside shooting to make him an all-around player. He helped the Wizards win four straight games to close out the season, which had them avoiding Miami in the first round as a potential No. 7 seed.

The Wizards shared the ball very well this season, ranking 7th in the league in assists at 17.7 per game. Their unselfishness helped them finish a respectable 16th in offensive efficiency, averaging 103.3 points per 100 possessions. This is where they have a huge advantage over the sometimes stagnant Bulls, who rank a woeful 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Chicago can go for long stretches without scoring.

This has actually been a favorable match-up for Washington in recent years believe it or not. It not only won two of three meetings this season, but dating back to last year, it has won four of the past six meetings. The Wizards have done so behind a dominant effort defensively. They have held to the Bulls to an average of 88.5 points per game in their last six meetings.

Washington is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days this season.  The Wizards are 27-11 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Washington is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Bobcats/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Charlotte +10

The Bobcats were the surprise of the season this year. They made the playoffs while finishing with a winning record for just the second time in franchise history. Steve Clifford deserves Coach of the Year consideration for the job that he has done this season. He took a team that went 21-61 in 2013-13 to a 43-39 club this season, improving them by a whopping 22 victories.

Clifford doesn’t deserve all the credit. Al Jefferson probably should get the most of it with the MVP-caliber season he had. He proved to be an excellent offseason acquisition and was really the only player of any significance that this team added. Jefferson put up 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game as he was a double-double waiting to happen.

Kemba Walker (17.7 ppg, 6.1 apg) also took his game to the next level this season. Gerald Henderson (14.0 ppg) can fill it up, Josh McRoberts (8.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.3 apg) can do it all, and Gary Neal (11.2 ppg) was a nice pick up before the trade deadline. This is a team that heads into the playoffs with a lot of confidence after going 7-1 over their final eight games of the season as they nearly moved all the way up to the No. 5 seed in the East.

The Bobcats have been a completely different team since they gave up 61 points to James in that loss. Indeed, they have won 16 of their last 22 games overall to clinch a playoff spot. They went 7-1 over the final eight games of the season. Miami, meanwhile, lost five of its last six games heading into the postseason.

The one weakness for the Heat is their post play, which can be suspect at times, especially defensively. That’s why they signed Greg Oden, but he’s not going to play that big of a role for them. Jefferson is averaging 26 points and 13 rebounds over his last 10 games. He should have his way with the Heat in this series, which gives the Bobcats a fighting chance.

Charlotte is 9-1 ATS off two consecutive games as a favorite.  The Bobcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They took Miami to overtime and lost by a single point to them in another game this year, so they are clearly closing the gap in this head-to-head series.  Bet the Bobcats Sunday.

20* Hawks/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana -7.5

The Indiana Pacers are undervalued right now due to their poor finish to the regular season.  They should be an even bigger favorite over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1.  I'll take advantage and back the Pacers in what I expect to be a double-digit victory by game's end.

Indiana is the best team in the East in my opinion, and while many don't believe it deserves the No. 1 seed because of its finish, the fact of the matter is that it finished with the best record.  This team easily got bored in the second half of the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal and will have them coming together as a team.

The only reason the Hawks made the playoffs is because the Eastern Conference is so terrible as a whole.  Its 38-44 record was good enough to hold off the lowly New York Knicks for the final spot.  This is a team that went 1-14 over a 15-game stretch this season.  They stand little chance of competing in this series considering their best player, Al Horford, was lost for the season.

The one constant with the Pacers is that they defend, and defense wins in the playoffs. They led the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions. To compare, Atlanta ranked 14th in defensive efficiency, giving up 104.1 points per 100 possessions.

These Indiana players will be chomping at the bit to hit the court after resting down the stretch.  They should have one of their best efforts of the season in Game 1 because of it, while also playing with a chip on their shoulder due to the negative publicity they have received through the media for their struggles over the past month-plus.

The Hawks are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Atlanta is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The favorite it 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series.  Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Saturday.

15* Warriors/Clippers Game 1 Line Mistake on Los Angeles -7

Despite playing without Chris Paul for 20 games this season due to injury, the Clippers managed to win 57 games and finish as the No. 3 seed in the stacked Western Conference.  When he returned to health, they went 20-5 over their final 20 games of the season.  The fifth loss doesn't count because Paul didn't play in the season finale.

To put it bluntly, the Clippers are my favorite value bet to win the NBA Championship.  The trio of Paul, Blake Griffin and head coach Doc Rivers makes them an enticing bet not only in Game 1, but to win it all.  Griffin really stepped up his game in Paul's absence this year, averaging 24.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.

What makes the Clippers so tough to deal with is that they rank 1st in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging 109.4 points per 100 possessions.  That is impressive in Rivers' first year on the job, especially when you consider the fact that Paul missed 20 games and J.J. Redick (15.2 ppg) missed 47.  Having the best sixth man in the league in Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg) coming off the bench doesn't hurt, either.

Los Angeles will have a huge advantage in the paint in Game 1 due to the absence of Andrew Bogut for the Warriors.  Bogut is out indefinitely with fractured ribs.  To explain his importance, consider that the Warriors allowed 98.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and 100.5 with him off during the regular season.  Golden State simply isn't the same team without him in the lineup because of his defense.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings.  Los Angeles is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Golden State, winning by 13, 11 and 26 points.  I fully expect another double-digit blowout in Game 1 this afternoon.  Take the Clippers in Game 1 Saturday.

15* Warriors/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +8

The Golden State Warriors get the call Wednesday as a massive 8-point underdog to the Denver Nuggets.  Sure, the fact that they are locked into the No. 6 seed is concerning because they are likely to rest their starters, but this team is deep enough to stay within eight of Denver.

The Nuggets, meanwhile, lack depth right now due to injury.  They are expected to be without Ty Lawson, J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee.  Now, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after falling 105-117 to the Clippers last night. They are going to have a hard time getting up for this game knowing that they will be facing the Warriors without Curry, Thompson and Lee.

Indeed, the Warriors have a deep bench.  Harrison Barnes, Jermaine O'Neal, Jordan Crawford, Marreese Speights, Draymond Green and Steve Blake have all played significant minutes for them this season.  This crew is more than capable of not only staying within 8 points of depleted Denver, but pulling off the upset as well.

Golden State is 13-2 ATS off two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 16-5 ATS in April games over the last two years.  Golden State is 50-32 ATS as a road underdog over the last three years.  The Nuggets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Nuggets, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Denver.  Take the Warriors Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets +7

The Brooklyn Nets are still playing for something.  They can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win tonight, but a loss would have them slotted as the No. 6 seed.  That means if they were to survive the first round, they'd have to play Miami in the second round.  They want the No. 5 seed because then they'd get Indiana in the second.

The Nets were beaten badly by the New York Knicks last night, which has public perception believing that they have quit.  I'm not buying it, and by Paul Pierce's comments after the game, it's clear that this contest against Cleveland is important for them to get things figured out heading into the playoffs.

"(This) was an example of how not to take a step forward," said Paul Pierce, who had 13 points in just 20 minutes. "We were off our game offensively, defensively, all phases of the game and that's not how you want to go into the playoffs."

 Cleveland was officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 116-119 loss to Milwaukee on April 11 in its third-to-last game.  It did not even show up against Boston the next night, losing 99-111 as a 9-point favorite.  It won't show up tonight, either, and it will also be playing without Luol Deng (back).

Brooklyn has won 10 of its last 13 meetings with Cleveland overall.  In fact, it has only lost by more than 5 points to the Cavaliers once in its last 14 meetings.  That makes for a 13-1 system backing the Nets pertaining to tonight's spread of +6.5.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5