15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2 

The Indiana Pacers have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 14-3 at home this season.  And they come into this game highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses to Miami and New Orleans.  Plus, they are fresh and ready to go on two days’ rest and will get Malcolm Brogdon back from injury tonight. 

The Philadelphia 76ers have been awful on the road this season.  They are just 7-10 in road games.  They did beat the Pacers at home 119-116 in their lone meeting this season, but now it’s revenge time for Indiana at home this time around. 

Plays against road teams (Philadelphia) - off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 54-18 (75%) ATS since 1996.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -8.5 

The Miami Heat have won five straight to improve to 24-8 on the season.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  Now they should make easy work of the Washington Wizards on the road tonight. 

The Wizards stand little to no chance of even being competitive tonight with all of their injuries.  They are without Rui Hachimura, Mo Wagner, Davis Bertans and Thomas Bryant and they could be without Bradley Beal, who is questionable. 

The Heat are 12-2 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive home games over the last three seasons.  Miami is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Heat Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +4 

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with three upset wins and a 120-98 blowout of Indiana yesterday.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but that blowout allowed them to rest their starters late. 

The Houston Rockets will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Nets 108-98 at home last night.  Now they have to travel, while the Pelicans get to stay at home.  That’s a huge advantage. 

The Rockets will sit Russell Westbrook today and they could be without Clint Cappela, who is questionable.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +11.5 

Both the Magic and Bucks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the situation is much better for the Magic.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Bucks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 5th game in 8 days. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to play tonight with a back injury after sitting out last night against the Hawks.  Eric Bledsoe remains out for the Bucks.  This line indicates Giannis will play, but it would be a huge bonus if he didn’t. 

The Magic will be motivated for revenge after losing twice already to the Bucks this season.  They only lost 101-110 at Milwaukee on December 9th a few weeks ago as 13-point dogs. And I think they can stay within single-digits in their 3rd meeting as well. 

The Magic are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games.  Orlando is 4-0-2 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Roll with the Magic Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1 

We are getting the Miami Heat cheap at home tonight.  The Heat are 14-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to the Lakers by 3 points.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game at home this year. 

The Philadelphia 76ers are just 7-9 on the road this season and actually getting outscored on the road.  While both teams are playing a back-to-back, the situation is worse for the 76ers because they have to travel from Orlando to Miami, while the Heat get to stay at home after beating the Pacers last night. 

The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Saturday games.  Take the Heat Saturday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Celtics UNDER 217 

I love the UNDER in this game between the Raptors and Celtics.  I love it because of the situation.  These teams just played each other on Christmas Day a couple days ago, so they are very familiar with one another.  And it’s their 3rd meeting already this season as well. 

I have a hard time believing both teams will shoot as well as they did in that meeting.  The Celtics won 118-102 for 220 combined points.  The Celtics shot 50% from the field, while the Raptors shot 47.5%.  The familiarity will help out the defenses in this one and lead to a lower-scoring game than that game was on Christmas Day. 

Toronto is 11-2 UNDER off a loss against a division rival over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 17-6 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Raptors last seven games off an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight Saturday games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games playing on zero rest.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +3 

This is a great spot to fade the Philadelphia 76ers.  They are coming off a huge upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Christmas Day.  That makes this a prime letdown spot for the 76ers now.  Plus, they’ll be playing their 5th game in 8 days. 

Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic come in on three days’ rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Not to mention, they are highly motivated for a win after dropping five of their last seven.  And the Magic are finally near full strength now in the health department, which will make them dangerous moving forward. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series.  The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Magic have won three straight home meetings with the 76ers outright and I think they get the job done outright again given the favorable spot for them tonight. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - a good shooting team (45.5%-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5%-43.5%), after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Philadelphia is 6-19 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

15* Cavs/Celtics NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +13.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won three straight games coming in and are now ready to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.  The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go coming in on three days’ rest. 

The same cannot be said for the Celtics.  Boston is coming off a huge win over Toronto on Christmas Day on the road.  That makes this a letdown spot for them, especially since they’ve already beaten the Cavs twice this season.  I like the value with the Cavs given the spot and playing with double-revenge catching a whopping 13.5 points. 

Plays against any team (Boston) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Cleveland) - a rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Boston is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games off three straight games where they made 50% of their shots or more.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

20* Spurs/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Dallas -5.5 

Luka Doncic returned to practice on Tuesday and is likely to make his return from an ankle injury tonight.  Playing without Doncic, the Mavs came together as a team and showed they are more than just a one trick pony.  It will help them moving forward. 

In the game they lost Doncic in the opening minutes against Miami, the Mavs took the Heat to overtime and only lost 118-122.  They came back and upset Milwaukee on the road as 10-point dogs in their next game.  They only lost to Boston by 6 at home, pulled the 117-98 upset win as 8.5-point dogs at Philadelphia, and blew a 30-point lead at Toronto in a 107-110 loss as 3.5-point dogs. 

That loss to Toronto wouldn’t have sat well with them over Christmas.  Look for them to come back home highly motivated for a victory tonight against the San Antonio Spurs.  And they’ll be fresh and ready to go on three days’ rest.  Dallas is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. 

The Spurs are coming off a win over the Grizzlies, they have exactly two winning streaks of two games or more all season.  The Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win, and 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games following a win dating back to last year.  The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Mavericks Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5 

The New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets do not like each other based on their close proximity.  The Knicks want revenge from two losses to the Nets by 4 and 2 points in their first two meetings this season.  I expect this game to go down to the wire as well, so getting 7.5 points is a great value. 

The Knicks have played their best basketball of the season over the last couple weeks.  They are 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They upset both the Kings as 8.5-point dogs and Warriors as 4.5-point dogs on the road, while also crushing the Hawks by 23 as 2.5-point home favorites.  They only lost by 6 at Denver as well.  Their only blowout losses during this stretch came to Milwaukee and Miami, two of the best teams in the NBA. 

The Knicks have certainly held their own against the Nets.  New York is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Brooklyn.  The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday games.  Roll with the Knicks Thursday. 

20* Pelicans/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +10 

After losing 13 straight games, the New Orleans Pelicans are finally starting to show some life and play up to their potential.  They have won two of their last three with upset wins at Minnesota as 3-point dogs and at Portland as 6-point dogs. 

I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Pelicans now after losing 14 of their last 16.  They are catching double-digits here against the Denver Nuggets when they shouldn’t be.  They’ll give the Nuggets a run for their money on Christmas Night, especially now that they are fully healthy outside Zion Williamson. 

It’s also a good time to ‘sell high’ on the Nuggets, who have won seven straight coming in. But only two of those wins came by double-digits.  And this is a tired Nuggets team playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 12th game in 21 days.  The Pelicans will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days Wednesday. 

Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  They haven’t lost any of their last seven meetings with the Nuggets by double-digits, making for a 7-0 system backing them pertaining to this 10-point spread.  The Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday. 

15* Clippers/Lakers ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 223 

Two of the best teams in the NBA square off at Staples Center on Christmas Day when the Los Angeles Lakers take on the Los Angeles Clippers.  I expect this game to be played close to the vest as these teams are quickly becoming two of the biggest rivals in the NBA. 

You can bet both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively to get a win in this matchup.  And both teams have such great records this year largely because they are playing defense.  The Clippers are 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Lakers are 8th in defensive efficiency. 

Lebron James (back) and Anthony Davis (knee) are both banged up right now for the Lakers.  Both are questionable to play Wednesday, though chances are they’ll both suit up.  I’m expecting a result similar to their first meeting this season when the Clippers won 112-102 for 214 combined points.  It’s going to be a defensive battle. 

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 220 or higher (LA Lakers) - after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games, a well rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days are 26-4 (86.7%) since 1996. 

The Lakers are 19-5 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 21-5 UNDER In road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two years.  The UNDER is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings.  The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Lakers last 52 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

20* Celtics/Raptors ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5 

The Toronto Raptors are in a world of hurt right now injury-wise.  They are playing without their best player in Pascal Siakam along with fellow starter Marc Gasol and Norman Powell.  They don’t stand a chance of beating the Celtics without these three Wednesday. 

The Raptors just pulled a 30-point comeback win over Dallas at home on Sunday before going into overtime in a loss to Indiana on Monday.  It’s safe to say this is a tired, short-handed team now playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Celtics tonight. 

Meanwhile, Boston comes in on two days’ rest after last playing on Sunday.  They are also playing just their 4th game in 13 days.  They are coming off two straight blowout home wins over Detroit by 21 and Charlotte by 26.  This team is playing well right now and the Raptors won’t be able to slow them down given the spot. 

Plays against underdogs (Toronto) - off a cover where they lost straight up as a dog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 65-20 (76.5%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on any team (Boston) - off two straight wins by 10 or more against an opponent that has scored 110 points or more in four straight games are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Celtics are 12-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +6 

The Sacramento Kings have lost three straight road games coming in.  They return home here highly motivated for a victory to get a win before Christmas.  Look for them to likely pull the upset at home over the Houston Rockets. 

While we’re ‘buying low’ on the Kings off three straight losses, we’re ‘selling high’ on the Rockets off three straight wins.  They went on the road and upset the Clippers before beating a banged-up Suns team on the road as 9-point favorites.  Now they will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, which makes this a tough spot for them. 

Sacramento is 17-6 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 14-4 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three years.  Sacramento is 10-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.   

The Kings are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Sacramento is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog.  The Kings pulled the 119-118 upset at Houston as 12-point road dogs in their first meeting this season, and they are upset-minded again tonight.  Take the Kings Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4 

The Miami Heat are showing great value as only 4-point home favorites over the Utah Jazz tonight.  The Heat are 12-1 SU & 10-2-1 ATS at home this season and winning by 14.2 points per game on average. 

The Jazz are just 7-8 SU & 5-9-1 ATS on the road this season.  Utah is without starting PG Mike Conley as he just can’t seem to get healthy.  And I think the Jazz are overvalued due to their five-game winning streak against some bad teams in Minnesota, Golden State, Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte.  All five of those games went down to the wire, too. 

Miami comes in on two days’ rest after last playing on Friday.  And the Heat have the next three days off as well.  They are looking to put forth a big effort here knowing they get that time off, plus they are fresh. 

The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  Roll with the Heat Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Bucks UNDER 219.5 

Two of the top defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Pacers are 7th.  That has been key to both of their successes this season. 

It’s no surprise the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Bucks and Pacers have combined for 219 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 219.5-point total. 

Milwaukee beat Indiana 102-83 in their first meeting this season for just 185 combined points.  And the Bucks aren’t at full strength right now as they will be without PG Eric Bledsoe and his 15 PPG and likely Wesley Mathews as well.  Jeremy Lamb and Domantas Sabonis are questionable for Indiana. 

The UNDER is 7-2 in Pacers last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 28-9-1 in Pacers last 38 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings PK 

It’s a bad spot for both the Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  Both teams played last night in road losses to the Pacers and Cavs, respectively.  But it’s clearly a worse spot for the Grizzlies, and the Kings are the better team in this matchup, so getting them at a pick ‘em is a great value. 

Sacramento had two days off prior to that game at Indiana.  So the Kings will only be playing their 2nd game in 4 days here.  Memphis will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and its 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  I trust the Kings will have more in the tank than the Grizzlies as a result. 

The Kings are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game this season.  Sacramento is 10-2 ATS off a non-conference game this season.  The Kings are 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last two years.  Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss.  The Kings are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.  The Grizzlies are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games playing on zero days’ rest.  Bet the Kings Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10 

The New York Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset both Golden State and Sacramento on the road, and covered in a 6-point loss at 10-point dogs at Denver.  They also crushed Atlanta 143-120 at home last time out. 

The Miami Heat return home from a three-game road trip here.  The Heat are in a letdown spot off their upset win at Philadelphia as 9-point dogs last time out.  They won’t take the Knicks nearly as seriously as they took the 76ers in that huge showdown Wednesday night. 

The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five Friday games.  The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -9 

The Boston Celtics should make easy work of the Detroit Pistons tonight.  The Pistons will be without Blake Griffin (16.3 PPG), Luke Kennard (15.8 PPG) and Christian Wood (9.1 PPG).  They have zero chance of making this game competitive with the Celtics without these three guys. 

The Celtics have lost two of their last three coming in, so they won’t be taking the Pistons lightly.  But Boston is also rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 8 days.  The Celtics are 10-1 at home this season, while the Pistons are 4-9 on the road. 

The Celtics are 22-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons, including 15-2 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last three years.  Detroit is 3-14 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by at least 6 points per game over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 

It’s the grudge match tonight between the Clippers and Rockets.  They have split the first two meetings this season with the home team winning reach.  But the Clippers are just now at full strength finally, and I think they will make easy work of the Rockets at home tonight. 

The Clippers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall with their only losses coming on the road.  The Clippers are 14-1 SU & 10-4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game.  This is a short number for them to be laying at home tonight. 

The Rockets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have struggled to put away some bad teams.  They lost outright to the Pistons as 7.5-point home favorites and outright to the Kings as 12-point favorites.  They also failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites over the Suns and 10-point home favorites over the Spurs.  They also let the Cavs take them to the wire as 11.5-point favorites.

The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.  Six of their last seven wins have come by double-digits.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  Bet the Clippers Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3 

The Spurs have turned the corner finally and are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 4-3 in their last seven games overall with upset wins over the likes of the Clippers and Rockets.  And they only lost by 2 to the Rockets as 10-point road dogs last time out. 

Now the Spurs come in on two days’ rest and will be hosting the Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days as this will be a tough spot for them.  Not to mention, they needed overtime to put away the Pelicans on Tuesday. 

The Spurs are 21-3 SU in their last 24 home meetings with the Nets.  San Antonio is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 meetings with Brooklyn, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings. 

San Antonio is 21-9 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  The Spurs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss.  Roll with the Spurs Thursday. 

20* Celtics/Mavs ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston -2.5 

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Celtics are coming off two straight tough losses to the Pacers and 76ers in a back-to-back situation.  Now they’ve had a whopping five days off to rest and recover after last playing on December 12th.  It’s safe to say we will get a big effort from the Celtics tonight. 

The Mavericks are in a massive letdown spot.  They are coming off a shocking 120-116 upset win at Milwaukee as 10-point underdogs on Monday.  It’s like the Bucks didn’t take them seriously without Luka Doncic and the Mavericks took advantage.  But they’re going to feel the loss of Doncic sooner rather than later, including tonight. 

You simply don’t replace a player of Doncic’s caliber.  He has been neck-and-neck with Giannis as the favorite to win the MVP up to this point.  Doncic averages 29.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game.  He means everything to the Mavericks. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Dallas) - a good team outscoring opponents by 6 or more points per game, after allowing 105 points or more three straight games are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1996.  Boston is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Celtics are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Dallas.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Pacers NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5 

The Lakers will be playing their seventh road game in their last eight contests.  They are starting to show signs of wearing down.  They failed to cover in a 3-point win at Miami on Friday and also failed to cover in a 5-point win at Atlanta on Sunday.  I think their winning streak comes to an end Tuesday. 

The Indiana Pacers are playing almost as well as the Lakers right now.  They are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall and should not be catching points at home to Los Angeles tonight.  They have gone 6-1 SU at home during this stretch with their only loss to the Clippers. 

The Lakers are dealing with some injuries right now as Kyle Kuzma is expected to sit out, while Anthony Davis is questionable with an ankle injury suffered against the Hawks.  And this is the ultimate lookahead spot as the Lakers have the Bucks on deck Thursday on TNT.  I expect them to be overlooking the Pacers and looking ahead to that game against Milwaukee. 

The Lakers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite.  The Pacers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +10 

The Houston Rockets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as 10-point home favorites over the San Antonio Spurs.  This team is not playing well enough right now to warrant laying this big of a number.  The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes upset losses to both the Kings and Pistons. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Spurs, who have been one of the worst covering teams in the NBA this season at 6-18-1 ATS in their 25 games.  The Spurs have won four of their last six coming in over the Clippers, Rockets, Kings and Suns.  They have stepped up in class and shown they can hang. 

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (San Antonio) - a rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  Roll with the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5 

The Toronto Raptors have been struggling here of late without Fred VanVleet, and he’s doubtful again tonight.  They Raptors are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only two wins came by a single point over the Bills as 6-point road favorites and by 8 over the Nets as 6.5-point home favorites. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have shown they can step up in class here of late and compete.  They only lost by 6 as 11.5-point home dogs to the Rockets, went on the road and upset the Spurs by 8 as 12-point dogs, and barely failed to cover at Milwaukee.  Now they are catching 12.5-points here to the Raptors, which is too much. 

Toronto is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games vs. teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  The Cavaliers are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Toronto.  Take the Cavaliers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks +12 

There’s no doubt you’re paying a premium now to back the 23-3 Los Angeles Lakers.  They have covered five of their last six and are now laying double-digits on the road to the Atlanta Hawks.  This is a game the Hawks will give them a run for their money tonight. 

It’s a bad spot for the Lakers.  They are coming off a win in Miami, and there’s a lot of distractions that come along with playing in Miami.  Teams often times come out flat in their next game.  And the Lakers will be playing their 3rd straight road game here and are in the midst of a stretch of eight of their last nine on the road. 

The Hawks have failed to cover three in a row, and it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on them.  They’ll show up for the Lakers today.  Kyle Kuzma is out and Lebron James is questionable for the Lakers.  The Hawks are fully healthy outside the suspension to John Collins. 

The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Hawks are 44-19 ATS in their last 63 games off a double-digit home loss.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the Hawks Sunday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7 

This is a very tough spot for the Houston Rockets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have to travel from Orlando back to Houston overnight and won’t have a whole lot left in the. Tank for the Detroit Pistons. 

The Pistons had yesterday off and will be fresh for this one.  Making matters worse for the Rockets is that they were already without Eric Gordon, but now they will be without Russell Westbrook tonight, plus Tyson Chandler is questionable.  The Pistons are fully healthy outside of Reggie Jackson. 

Plays against any team (Houston) - a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -6.5 

The Denver Nuggets are currently undervalued because they went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS over a six-game stretch where five of six games were on the road.  I cashed them in when they returned home as 8-point favorites in a 15-point win over the Blazers.   

I think the Nuggets remain undervalued here as only 6.5-point home favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Pepsi Center has been a house of horrors for opponents as Denver had the best home-court advantage in the NBA last year.  The Nuggets are 9-3 at home this season as well. 

Few teams have owned the Thunder like the Nuggets have.  Indeed, the Nuggets are 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Thunder.  They won all four meetings last year with OKC all by 7 points or more.  And that was when the Thunder were actually good with Paul George and Russell Westbrook.  Take the Nuggets Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Houstons Rockets barely survived the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers on the road Wednesday in a 116-110 win as 11.5-point favorites.  Now the Rockets are laying 6.5 points on the road to the Orlando Magic and they shouldn’t be.  I’ll take the value with the Magic at home tonight. 

The Rockets have failed to cover three straight and four of their last five.  They have some key injuries right now as they are playing without two of their best guards in Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers.  They can’t be trusted to lay points on the road here against an Orlando Magic team that is playing well right now. 

Indeed, the Magic have won four of their last six with their only losses coming to the Bucks and Lakers, which are arguably the two best teams in the NBA.  They were competitive in both games as each loss came by single-digits.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Orlando is 23-9 ATS after covering four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.  The Magic are 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings, including 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Orlando.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

15* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -6 

The Denver Nuggets are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five of their last six coming in and it’s understandable considering they played five of their last six on the road.  Now they are back in the Pepsi Center where they have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. 

We know we’re going to get a big effort from the Nuggets here, which is a big factor when handicapping the NBA.  The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season and are 8-3 at home this year.  They should be able to handle the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. 

The Blazers have been hit hard by injuries this season as they remain without Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins and Rodney Hood.  Injuries prompted them to sign Carmelo Anthony.  The Blazers are just 10-15 this season, including 5-9 on the road.  They are nowhere near as good as they were last season when they made a deep run in the playoffs. 

Plays against underdogs (Portland) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing against a team with a winning record are 71-35 (67%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  Portland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Denver is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6 

The Dallas Mavericks are starting to get way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Now they’re being asked to go on the road and lay 6 points to a solid Detroit Pistons team that is as healthy as they have been all season now. 

The Pistons are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to arguably the best team in the NBA in the Milwaukee Bucks.  They beat San Antonio by 34 at home and Cleveland by 33 on the road.  They also upset Indiana by 7 at home and won at New Orleans.  I really like the way this team is playing right now. 

The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and have consistently had one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA over the past few seasons.  The Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on three or more days’ rest.  That break actually wasn’t good for them as it halted the momentum they had. 

The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in home games after having won three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  They are winning by 11.2 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +9.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them tonight as 9.5-point favorites.  It’s their highest favorite role all season, and only the 2nd time in 24 games that they’ve been favored by more than 4.5 points. 

This number had been adjusted for the Hornets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But this is a young team that won’t be affected as much by this situation.  And I think what will energize the Hornets tonight is playing with double-revenge, two losses to Brooklyn since November 20th.  It will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks, and I look for the Hornets to put their best foot forward tonight. 

Charlotte is 8-1 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* Clippers/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5 

The defensive intensity in this game tonight is going to stellar.  Kawhi Leonard returns to Toronto for the first time since leaving in free agency for the Clippers.  Both teams will want this game very badly, and I expect it to show on the defensive end. 

We actually saw it in the first meeting this season in Los Angeles.  The Clippers pulled away late to win 98-88 as 9.5-point favorites.  That game saw just 186 combined points with a 220.5-point total, and now they’ve set the total too high again here at 221.5.  Both teams rank in the Top 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team (LA Clippers) - in a game involving two good teams that win between 60% and 75% of their games in December games are 62-18 (77.5%) over the last five seasons. 

The Clippers are 20-5 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Clippers last nine games off an ATS win.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* Nuggets/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4 

The Philadelphia 76ers are 12-0 at home this season and winning by 13.2 points pre game.  Getting them as only 4-point home favorites over the struggling Denver Nuggets is a gift from oddsmakers tonight.  We’ll take advantage. 

The Nuggets are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the Knicks. They have lost three road games to the Kings, Celtics and Nets during this stretch, so I don’t see how they are going to hang with the 76ers tonight. 

Philadelphia wants revenge from a 97-100 road loss at Denver in their first meeting this season.  The 76ers blew a 15-point halftime lead and have not forgotten.  Philadelphia is 28-14 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last three seasons. 

The home team has won four straight in this series.  The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets.  Denver is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the 76ers Tuesday. 

15* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3 

The Golden State Warriors now have both D’Angelo Russell and Draymond Green back healthy.  They are playing some more competitive basketball as a result and should be able to handle the lowly Memphis Grizzlies at home tonight. 

This is a good spot for the Warriors, who come in on two days’ rest and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Warriors beat the Grizzlies 114-95 on the road on November 19th.  It should be more of the same at home this time around. 

The Grizzlies are dealing with some injuries right now to Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clark.  It’s a Grizzlies team playing some really poor basketball right now.  They have gone 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Grizzlies are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog.  The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Grizzlies and 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings against Memphis.  Take the Warriors Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -5.5 

The Toronto Raptors have lost three straight for the first time all season.  The three losses came to the Heat, Rockets and 76ers, who are three of the best teams in the NBA.  Now they’ll be highly motivated and should get back on track with a win and cover against the lowly Chicago Bulls tonight. 

The Bulls are in a tough spot as they are coming off an overtime loss to the Heat in Miami last night.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Raptors will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they had two days off prior to playing the 76ers last night and will have more left in the tank than the Bulls. 

The Raptors simply own the Bulls with 10 straight wins over Chicago in this series.  The Raptors are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Chicago winning by 24, 23, 39, 24 and 9 points.  They have won those five games by an average of 23.8 points per game. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1996. 

The Raptors are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Chicago is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog.  The Bulls are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after covering three of their last four ATS.  Roll with the Raptors Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -7 

The Miami Heat have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 16-6 SU & 14-7-1 ATS in all games this year.  They have been unstoppable at home, going 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS while winning by 17.1 points per game on average. 

The Chicago Bulls have been overrated all season.  They are 8-15 SU & 10-13 ATS in their 23 games this year.  The Bulls are coming off an ugly upset home loss to the Warriors and should be double-digit road dogs here to the Miami Heat. 

Chicago is 15-30 ATS in road games with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last three seasons.  The Bulls spent last night in South Beach, so you can only imagine what they got into.  The Heat improve to 10-0 at home this season with another blowout win over the Bulls.  Roll with the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -2.5 

The Charlotte Hornets need to be favored by more than 2.5 points at home against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  We’ll take advantage and side with the Hornets, who have been undervalued basically all season and consistently lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. 

The Hawks are 1-11 SU In their last 12 games overall with their only win coming at home against the lowly Golden State Warriors.  The Hawks are missing some key players right now as John Collins remains suspended and De’Andre Hunter is out.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are fully healthy. 

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS after having lost two of their last three games this season.  Atlanta is 2-10 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season.  Take the Hornets Sunday. 

15* Grizzlies/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219 

I really like this UNDER tonight between the Grizzlies and Jazz.  These teams are very familiar with one another as this will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  And familiarity almost always favors the defenses because they know what to expect from the offenses. 

Not to mention, the first two meetings in this series went UNDER the total with combined scores of 213 points on November 15th and 197 points on November 29th.  Now, oddsmakers have somehow set this total way higher than it should be at 219 points in the 3rd meeting. 

This has always been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Grizzlies haven’t combined for more than 218 points in any of their last 44 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 44-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 219-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 

I really like the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  They will be playing with double-revenge after losing the first two meetings with the Mavericks this season.  They’ll be motivated for a win, while the Mavericks will take them lightly and that will make it difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us. 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Pelicans, who have lost seven straight coming in while going 1-5-1 ATS in the process.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Mavericks, who are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This line is inflated due to these recent results from both teams. 

Plays against any team (Dallas) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home loss.  The Mavericks are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday. 

20* Nuggets/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -3.5 

The Boston Celtics want revenge from a 92-96 road loss at Denver on November 22nd exactly two weeks ago.  Now they get to face the Nuggets at home this time around.  And it’s a Nuggets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a road win over the Knicks last night. 

The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and are coming off a 112-93 home win over the Heat.  The Celtics improved to 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game.  This is a short number to be laying with the Celtics at home tonight given the rest advantage and revenge. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver) - off a road win when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 62-30 (67.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Denver is 6-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Celtics Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are highly motivated for a win after dropping four straight coming in.  One of those losses was a 104-116 home loss to the Magic on November 27th, so they will be out for revenge just over a week later here in the rematch. 

The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing 3rd game in 4 days and are overvalued off two straight wins over Washington and Phoenix. 

Plays against road favorites (Orlando) - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, in December games are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) off four or more consecutive losses, in December games are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Cleveland is 18-8-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  The Cavaliers are 54-29 ATS in their last 73 games when playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  Cleveland is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3 

The Charlotte Hornets have certainly been more competitive than most prognosticators anticipated coming into the season.  They are 9-14 SU & 12-11 ATS in their 23 games this season.  They have won three of their last five coming in with their only losses coming on the road to Milwaukee and at home to Phoenix by 5 after the Suns closed on a 10-0 run. 

The Brooklyn Nets are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as road favorites.  They are getting that respect due to going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  But their six wins have come against the Hornets, Kings, Knicks, Cavs, Celtics and Hawks. 

The Nets beat the Hornets 101-91 at home on November 20th.  Now the Hornets want revenge at home this time around just over two weeks later.  The Hornets are 6-2 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Nets with one of those losses coming by 2 points. 

Brooklyn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 road games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Charlotte is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 0.5 to 4.5 points.  Roll with the Hornets Friday. 

15* Rockets/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1 

The Toronto Raptors are coming off their first home loss of the season.  The Miami Heat beat them in overtime.  The Raptors are now 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Look for them to bounce back at home tonight against the Houston Rockets. 

The Rockets are in a tough spot off a double-overtime loss at San Antonio Tuesday.  Now they have to travel to Toronto and face a motivated Raptors team here tonight.  It’s a Raptors team that has been underrated all season at 15-5 SU & 13-7 ATS. 

Plays against underdogs (Houston) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Houston is 3-12 ATS off a combined score of 245 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points.  Toronto is 25-5 ATS in its last 30 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Rockets.  Take the Raptors Thursday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz -2.5 

This is the worst spot the Lakers have been in this entire season.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  After playing in altitude last night in Denver, they now have to play in altitude again tonight in Utah.  The Lakers won’t have much left in the tank. 

The Utah Jazz come in highly motivated for a win after losing four of five on their five-game road trip.  Now they’re back home where they are 8-1 on the season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They will take advantage of this tired Lakers team tonight and get a win and cover. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Jazz are 8-0 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Lakers.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Pistons UNDER 226 

The Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons just played less than two weeks ago.  The Bucks won 104-90 at home as 13-point favorites.  That game saw just 194 combined points, and now oddsmakers are setting the total at 226 in the rematch.  This total is way too high to say the least. 

The Pistons won’t have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They were also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days the last time they faced the Bucks and managed just 90 points on 40.7% shooting. 

The Pistons have been dynamite defensively over their last games in allowing just 98.4 points per game on 42.8% shooting.  The Bucks have held four of their last six opponents to 102 points or fewer and remain a very good defensive team. 

Detroit is 15-3 UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Pistons last 52 games playing on zero days’ rest.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (Detroit) - off a blowout win by 30 or more against an opponent that led its last game by 15 or more at the half are 53-13 (80.3%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* Lakers/Nuggets NBA No-Brainer on Denver -2 

The Denver Nuggets had won 10 of 11 before suffering an upset loss at Sacramento on Saturday.  I believe they were overlooking the Kings and looking ahead to this huge showdown with the Lakers, which is understandable.  Now they’ve had two days off to get over that loss and get ready for the Lakers. 

The Lakers are coming off a 100-114 home loss to the Mavericks to end their 10-game winning streak.  I like fading teams the game after their long winning streak comes to an end because there just always seems to be a hangover effect.  And this is a tired Lakers team playing their 7th game in 12 days and have to travel to Utah tomorrow night. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Lakers winning all five games by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.8 points per game.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2 

Despite being just 6-12 SU this season, the Washington Wizards are 11-7 ATS and have been an undervalued commodity this season.  And it’s worth noting they have played a road-heavy schedule with 11 road games compared to seven home games.   

The Wizards are back home here off a brutal four-game road trip at Denver, Phoenix, LA Lakers and LA Clippers.  It’s safe to say they are battle-tested.  And now I expect them to handle their business at home against the Orlando Magic tonight.  They want revenge from a 121-125 loss at Orlando two weeks ago in their first meeting this season. 

The Magic have lost four of their last six with their only wins coming against Cleveland and Golden State.  Orlando is dealing with some injuries right now with Nikola Vucevic, Al-Farouq Aminu and Michael Carter-Williams all out tonight. 

The home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Wizards have won five straight home meetings with the Magic.  Washington is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with the Magic.  Orlando is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in home games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Take the Wizards Tuesday. 

15* Bulls/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +5.5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bulls tonight as road underdogs to the Sacramento Kings.  They have lost seven of their last nine games overall.  But they are coming in on two days’ rest and will be primed for a big effort today against a Kings team that is very beatable. 

It’s also time to ‘sell high’ on the Kings, who are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall and starting to become overvalued because of it.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over the Denver Nuggets, which also makes them primed for a letdown here against the Bulls. 

Keep in mind during this 12-1 ATS run the Kings were underdogs in all but three games, and they were never favored by more than 3 points.  So they are now laying their biggest number since October 30th at home against the Hornets.  And they have been mostly dogs during this stretch because they are still missing De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III.  They are far from full strength.  Take the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 

I love the situation for the New Orleans Pelicans today.  This is a home-and-home situation.  The Thunder just beat the Pelicans 109-104 at home on Friday.  Now these teams play in a rematch at New Orleans just two days later.  The Pelicans will be highly motivated for revenge in this one. 

The Thunder are just 1-7 on the road this season and giving up 110.4 points per game.  The Pelicans have played their best basketball at home and nearly upset the Lakers are 6.5-point home dogs in their last home game.  They should have no problem covering this short 2.5-point spread tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Thunder are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +13.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are 16-3 this season, but they have been struggling to cover these big spreads they are asked to lay night in and night out.  That has been the case here of late especially as the Bucks are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. 

Milwaukee only won 119-110 at Cleveland as 11.5-point favorites last night.  They only won 111-102 as 14.5-point home favorites over Atlanta the game before.  They only won 122-118 as 8.5-point home favorites over Utah, 137-129 as 14-point home favorites over Portland and 135-127 as 11-point favorites over Atlanta in their previous three games.  They did cover by one in a 14-point win over Detroit as a 13-point favorite in a 1-5 ATS stretch over their last six. 

Charlotte has rarely lost by this kind of margin.  In fact, in their last 12 games, the Hornets have only been beaten twice by more than 10 points.  They are coming off two straight upset wins and they certainly believe they can hang with the Bucks tonight. 

Milwaukee is 36-59 ATS in its last 95 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  The Hornets are 8-0 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing on zero days’ rest.  Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  The Hornets are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Grizzlies UNDER 220 

I think there’s great value with this UNDER tonight.  The Jazz and Grizzlies just met on November 15th with the Grizzlies winning 107-106 at home for 213 combined points.  These teams are now very familiar with one another and will be playing just two weeks later.  That favors the defenses. 

This has always been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Grizzlies haven’t combined for more than 218 points in any of the last 43 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 43-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 220-point total. 

Memphis is 15-3 UNDER in home games off two or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 24-9 in Jazz last 33 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in Memphis.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -7.5 

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation after these two teams played in Charlotte on Wednesday.  The Hornets won that game 102-101 in thrilling fashion.  Now the Pistons will want their revenge at home tonight and will clearly be the more motivated team.  I believe it leads to a blowout win in Detroit’s favor. 

The Pistons have been great at home here of late.  They beat the Hawks 128-103 as 6-point favorites and topped the Magic 103-88 as 5-point favorites in their two most recent home games.  They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season. 

The Hornets are just 3-7 on the road this season and getting outscored by 9.8 points per game.  In their last four road games, the Hornets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS losing by 17 at Miami, by 7 at Washington, by 10 at Brooklyn and by 36 at Toronto. 

The Hornets are 7-25 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last three seasons.  The Hornets will be playing their 9th game in 15 days, while the Pistons will be playing just their 7th game in 19 days.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Pistons Friday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers just got back Damian Lillard from injury.  They promptly went on the road and crushed the Bulls 117-94 as 1-point favorites.  Now they are back home following a tough six-game road trip and in need of wins. 

The Blazers should be able to handle their business against a tired Oklahoma City Thunder team that has played four straight grueling nail biters.  They lost three straight to the Clippers and Lakers (twice) before barely escaping with a 100-97 win at Golden State on Monday.  They’ll now be playing their 4th road game in their last five contests. 

The Blazers own the Thunder, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  And this is a Thunder team that isn’t nearly as good as the one they’ve been up against over the past few seasons.  They no longer have Russell Westbrook and Paul George. 

Portland is 33-16-3 ATS in its last 52 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Oklahoma City is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Blazers Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 

The Indiana Pacers have been flying under the radar over the past month.  They are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games overall with their only losses coming to Houston, Milwaukee and Charlotte (by 2).  They are getting no respect at home tonight as only 1.5-point favorites over the Utah Jazz. 

The Pacers are as healthy as they’ve been all season as they have everyone but Victor Oladipo healthy now.  It’s a big reason why they are playing so well.  And the Pacers will certainly have fresh legs as this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days. 

Indiana has had Utah’s number in recent seasons.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  They won by 33 at Utah and by 27 at home against the Jazz in their two meetings last year. 

Plays against underdogs (Utah) - off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 58-17 (77.3%) ATS since 1996.  Indiana is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday. 

15* Clippers/Mavs NBA TV ANNIIHILATOR on Dallas +2.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 7 points or more.  And it’s not like they are beating up on cupcakes as they topped the defending champion Raptors 110-102 at home and went on the road and upset the Rockets 137-123 as 5.5-point dogs. 

Now, the Mavericks will host one of the favorites to win the title in the Los Angeles Clippers, and I think they’ll be up to the challenge.  The Clippers have also won five straight, but they’ve been much less impressive with wins by 2, 3 and 3 points.  And all five wins came at home. 

The Clippers are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season where they are giving up 119.2 points per game.  They have benefited from a very easy home-heavy schedule with 12 games at home compared to just five on the road. 

Home-court advantage has been huge int his series as the home team is 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Mavericks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Clippers.  Roll with the Mavericks Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4.5 

The Detroit Pistons are as healthy as they’ve been all season.  The only key player they are missing now is Reggie Jackson.  They should be a good bet in the short term because they are undervalued now after a 5-11 SU & 5-9-2 ATS start this season. 

Injuries have taken their toll on the Orlando Magic.  They are playing without arguably their two best players in Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic, and they are also without PG Michael Carter-Williams.  They lost by 16 in Toronto and by 5 in Indiana in their last two games coming in.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Pacers until Gordon and Vucevic return. 

The Magic are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season.  The Pistons are 37-13 SU & 28-18-4 ATS in their last 50 home meetings with the Magic.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Take the Pistons Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 

I like the value we are getting on the Memphis Grizzlies today.  The Pacers would have to win by double-digits to beat us, and I don’t see that happening.  The Pacers aren’t a good enough team to be laying double-digits to almost anyone. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Indiana, which has won nine of its last 12 games coming in.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies, who have lost three straight coming in.  But they barely lost 108-109 to the Lakers as 8-point dogs last time out.  And now the Grizzlies will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. 

Plays on road underdogs (Memphis) - off three or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 81-46 (63.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Grizzlies are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with the Grizzlies Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -3.5 

The Washington Wizards continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point home favorites against the injury-ravaged Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Wizards are 10-3 ATS this season and have been one of the best covering teams in the league. 

The Wizards come in playing their best basketball of the season, going 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 7 at Boston as 7.5-point dogs and by 4 at Orlando as 5.5-point dogs.  They beat Minnesota by 21 on the road as 5.5-point dogs, topped the Spurs by 6 at home as 2-point dogs and covered in a 7-point win over the Hornets as 6-point home favorites. 

The Kings are coming off a bad 19-point loss at Brooklyn and things are going to get worse before they get better due to their injuries.  They are playing without De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trevor Ariza right now. 

The Wizards are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Kings.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Wizards Sunday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy finally and are starting to play their best basketball of the season as a result.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, and they should not be catching 7.5 points to the Utah Jazz given the awful spot for Utah. 

Indeed, the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing some late game heroics to beat a bad Golden State team 113-109 as 16-point favorites last night.  The Jazz won’t have much left in the tank for the Pelicans, who play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA and will test a Jazz team playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Pelicans pulled the upset in each of their last two trips to Utah, and they haven’t lost by more than 8 points in any of their last six trips to Salt Lake City. 

Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-15 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off an ugly blowout home loss to the Golden State Warriors, failing to cover the spread by 25.5 points.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, and this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies have had three days off to stew over that loss, and now they’ll be fresh, motivated and ready to go with Lebron James and company coming to town tonight.  They will certainly be up for this game, and it’s understandable they thought they could just show up and beat the Warriors. 

The Lakers are in an awful spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a grueling, 130-127 shootout win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to Memphis and will be playing on tired legs.  The Lakers are already overvalued after winning 13 of their last 14 games overall, and we’ll gladly ’sell high’ on them in this flat spot. 

Plays on home underdogs (Memphis) - revenging a road loss by 10 points or Moree, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  The Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Grizzlies Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2.5 

The San Antonio Spurs are a complete dumpster fire.  They have gone 0-8 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are now a league-worst 2-13-1 ATS on the season.  It’s not going to get any better for them tonight. 

The Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They lost 104-115 on the road to the 76ers last night and will be playing their 4th straight road game.  Simply put, the Spurs are running on fumes right now. 

The Knicks have finally gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  The Knicks are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset the Mavericks as 7.5-point home dogs and blew out the Cavs by 18 as 5.5-point home favorites.  They only lost by a single point to the Hornets, and they gave Philadelphia a battle on the road in a 104-109 road loss as 13-point dogs last time out.   

Now the Knicks come in on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Spurs will have nothing left in the tank and will lose their 9th straight game tonight.  Roll with the Knicks Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers ESPN 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on Los Angeles -5/UNDER 229 

Reasons for Clippers: 

The Clippers want revenge from a 93-102 road loss at Houston on November 13th just nine days ago.  Look for them to have their revenge as they get the Rockets at home this time around, plus they have Paul George now with a few games under his belt and feeling confident in his role. 

The Clippers are 9-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per game at home.  It will be a great atmosphere for the Clippers here Friday night. 

The Rockets are overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against suspect competition.  I faded them with success in their 95-105 loss at Denver on Wednesday, and I’m fading them again tonight. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

Reasons for UNDER: 

These teams are obviously very familiar with one another having played just nine days ago.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.  And that game saw just 195 combined points, and now we have a total of 229, which is 34 points higher.  There’s clearly a ton of value with the UNDER. 

The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA now with their ability to switch on the perimeter with Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Those guys have tremendous wing spans and they are going to give James Harden and Russell Westbrook problems. 

The Rockets have been very good defensively, too.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games overall.  They have allowed 108 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  They are missing Eric Gordon on offense and that has certainly hurt their floor spacing on that end. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. 

Houston is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 road games, including 7-0 in November road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Rockets/Clippers ESPN 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on Los Angeles -5/UNDER 229 

Reasons for Clippers: 

The Clippers want revenge from a 93-102 road loss at Houston on November 13th just nine days ago.  Look for them to have their revenge as they get the Rockets at home this time around, plus they have Paul George now with a few games under his belt and feeling confident in his role. 

The Clippers are 9-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per game at home.  It will be a great atmosphere for the Clippers here Friday night. 

The Rockets are overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against suspect competition.  I faded them with success in their 95-105 loss at Denver on Wednesday, and I’m fading them again tonight. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

Reasons for UNDER: 

These teams are obviously very familiar with one another having played just nine days ago.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.  And that game saw just 195 combined points, and now we have a total of 229, which is 34 points higher.  There’s clearly a ton of value with the UNDER. 

The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA now with their ability to switch on the perimeter with Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Those guys have tremendous wing spans and they are going to give James Harden and Russell Westbrook problems. 

The Rockets have been very good defensively, too.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games overall.  They have allowed 108 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  They are missing Eric Gordon on offense and that has certainly hurt their floor spacing on that end. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-10 (75%) since 1996. 

Houston is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 road games, including 7-0 in November road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* Blazers/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -12 

The Milwaukee Bucks are back at it again this season challenging to be the best team in the NBA in the regular season.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with five of those wins coming by double-digits and seven of them by 8 points or more.  They are blowing teams in out on a regular basis, which is why I don’t mind laying this number with them Thursday. 

That’s especially the case when you consider they are up against a banged-up Blazers team that will be playing without Damian Lillard tonight.  They were already without Just Nurkic and Zach Collins, and they could be without both Hassan Whiteside and Anfernee Simons, who are both questionable. 

The Blazers have been a real dumpster fire of late, going 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with five losses by 8 points or more.  Their last two games were really dreadful as they lost by 24 at Houston and by 11 at New Orleans.  And they just recently lost Lillard to injury prior to that Pelicans game, so they were playing poorly with him, and now they’ll be even worse without his 28.6 points and 7.1 assists per game. 

The Bucks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Portland is 0-4-2 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bucks are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Blazers, including a 143-100 home win last year.  Roll with the Bucks Thursday. 

15* Celtics/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +6 

The Boston Celtics are 11-2 this season and still getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight as 6-point road underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  It’s a Celtics team that has found their stride with Kemba Walker running the show and they look like one of the best teams in the NBA currently. 

The Clippers could be without Kawhi Leonard again tonight as he has missed two consecutive games with a left knee contusion.  They were barely able to escape with a 90-88 home victory over the Thunder as 7.5-point home favorites on Monday without him.  And they certainly won’t be able to put away the Celtics by margin with or without him tonight. 

Plays against home favorites (LA Clippers) - in non-conference games, off a home non-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Boston is 14-2 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Celtics Wednesday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1 

The Houston Rockets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their run comes to an end tonight against a Denver Nuggets team that will be up to the challenge. 

The Rockets have been fasting on a pretty weak schedule as their eight wins have come against the Grizzlies, Warriors, Bulls, Pelicans, Clippers, Pacers, Timberwolves and Blazers.  This will be their toughest challenge in quite some time against a Nuggets team that has won six of their last seven overall coming in as well. 

The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season, and the Pepsi Center is never an easy place to play thanks to the altitude.  Now we get a fresh Nuggets team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 

The Golden State Warriors might just be the worst team in the NBA now.  They are 2-12 this season and are without their top three scorers in Steph Curry, D’Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson.  There’s just not a lot to like about this team moving forward. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to gel as a team.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins over the Spurs as 10.5-point dogs and Hornets as 2.5-point dogs, as well as an upset home win over the Jazz as 8-point dogs. 

The Grizzlies have scored 115.1 points per game on 47.7% shooting at home this season.  They’ll be up against a Warriors team that gives up 119.0 points per game and 48% shooting overall, including 119.9 points per game and 48.8% shooting on the road.  Golden State is 1-6 on the highway and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. 

The Warriors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Golden State is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +9 

I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 115-124 loss at Milwaukee as 11.5-point dogs on Thursday.  Now they get a shot at revenge just four days later and are at home this time around catching 9 points. 

It’s pretty amazing the Bulls were able to stay with 9 points of the Bucks on the road while shooting just 40.9% as a team.  I have to think they are going to have a better shooting night this time around, and I have a hard time believing the Bucks are going to get to the free throw line a ridiculous 47 times again. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 67-32 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +7 

This young Grizzlies team has really turned it around after a slow start this season and they’re becoming fun to watch because they are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  The Grizzlies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset wins over the Spurs, Hornets and Jazz as combined 21-point dogs. 

The Denver Nuggets have been overvalued all season.  Despite being 8-3 SU, they are just 3-6-2 ATS with a lot of close wins.  Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 8 points or fewer.  And if they do get a win Sunday over the Grizzlies, I believe it will be by 7 points or less. 

This has been a closely-contested series with each of the last five meetings decide by 7 points or less.  The Nuggets haven’t beaten the Grizzlies by more than 6 points in any of the last 15 meetings in Memphis.  That makes for a 15-0 system backing Memphis pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3 

The Boston Celtics have won 10 straight and will be highly motivated to keep this winning streak going as long as they can.  I think we are getting them cheap here against the Sacramento Kings as only 3-point road favorites. 

The Kings are in a hangover spot off their tough 2-point loss to the Lakers on Friday.  And this is a Kings team getting a lot of respect now after playing the Lakers close and covering six in a row coming in.  But they are without De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley, and I just don’t think they can keep up their good play without Fox especially. 

The Celtics are 7-1 SU in their last eight meetings with the Kings, and their domination in this series continues today.  Sacramento is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Celtics Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls -2 

The Chicago Bulls are playing much better of late after a slow start.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and starting to live up to the lofty expectations they had prior to the season.  This is a team with so much talent that they simply cannot stay down for long. 

After hanging tough with Milwaukee in a losing effort on the road last time out, the Bulls return home here to face the reeling, banged up Brooklyn Nets.  The Nets have lost three straight coming in and are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing their 5th straight road game, and it’s clear they are running out of gas. 

Making matters worse for the Nets is that they just recently lost starter Caris LeVert to a thumb injury.  And Kyrie Irving is trying to play through a shoulder injury that is clearly hampering him.  Irving has been well below his season average of 28.5 PPG during the three-game losing streak.  He had 17 against Denver, 27 against Utah, and 15 against Phoenix.  Irving is questionable to play tonight as well. 

The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Look for the Bulls to bounce back with a win and cover tonight at home.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday. 

20* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis +7.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to play well here having won three of their last five with upset wins over Minnesota (137-121) as 3.5-point home dogs, San Antonio (113-109) as 10.5-point road dogs and Charlotte (119-117) as 2.5-point road dogs.  This young team is growing together quickly and playing tremendous on the offensive end, shooting 50.6% or better in four of their last five games coming in. 

The Utah Jazz came into the season getting a ton of publicity for the moves they made in the offseason.  They were a popular dark horse title contender pick in the West.  But they’ve struggled to live up to expectations, going 8-3 SU but 4-7 ATS on the season.  That includes a 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS record in road games this year.  Their only road cover came against the hapless Golden State Warriors. 

I think Mike Conley’s feelings toward Memphis work against him here.  He loves the city of Memphis as they gave him every opportunity to be a star.  This will be his first time playing in Memphis as an opponent.  I don’t see it going well for him, and I think the Grizzlies have the motivational edge because of it.  The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Jazz.   

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after going under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games, in the first half of the season are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Grizzlies Friday. 

15* Mavs/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -7.5 

The Dallas Mavericks want revenge from a 102-106 home loss to the New York Knicks on November 8th as 10.5-point favorites.  They don’t even have to wait a week to get their revenge as now they play the Knicks on the road here as 7.5-point favorites on November 14th. 

I also like the fact that the Mavericks are coming off a loss in Boston to add to their motivation.  They come in on two days’ rest as well so they are fresh and ready to go.  Plus, the Mavericks are fully healthy right now and will be primed for a big effort. 

The Knicks are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Five of those six losses came by 12 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out on the regular.  And there’s been serious talks about firing their head coach David Fizdale in the media.  It’s just more of the same in New York this season. 

Dallas is 21-9 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Knicks are 21-45 ATS in their last 66 home games.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to New York.  Take the Mavericks Thursday. 

20* Clippers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are the best team in the NBA from what I’ve seen thus far when Kawhi Leonard is on the floor.  They are 7-1 in games that he has played, and he’s expected to play tonight against the Houston Rockets despite this being a back-to-back situation with a game against the Pelicans tomorrow. 

Leonard is averaging 26.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists this season to pick up right where he left off.  Both Lou Williams (22.3 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Matrezl Harrell (19.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG) have taken their games to the next level.  And guys like Ivaca Zubac, JayMychal Green and Patrick Beverley are all playing well. 

The Houston Rockets have some injury issues right now that will slow them down in the immediate future.  Eric Gordon won’t be back until late December after having knee surgery.  They were already without Gerald Green and Nene, and now Danuel House Jr. is out tonight with a back injury.  It’s a team that already lacks depth due to the massive contracts on the roster, and now they won’t have the depth to match the Clippers tonight. 

The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on one days’ rest.  Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The Clippers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Take the Clippers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1 

Don’t be surprised if the Philadelphia 76ers decide to rest a star player or two tonight after a grueling 98-97 home win over Cleveland as 11-point favorites last night.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days. 

The Orlando Magic are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest after last playing on Sunday.  The Magic are also highly motivated for a win tonight after dropping five of their last six games overall.  They are a respectable 3-3 at home this season compared to 0-4 on the road. 

Home-court advantage was huge in this series last season as the home team went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.  The Magic won both home meetings with the 76ers 119-98 as 2-point favorites and 111-106 as 6-point dogs.  The home team is also 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. 

Orlando is 18-8-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  The 76ers are 11-25 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 29-50 ATS in its last 79 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.   

Plays against any team (Philadelphia) - playing its 3rd game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +10 

The Philadelphia 76ers are without Al Horford and could be without Ben Simmons due to a shoulder injury yet again tonight.  It’s no wonder they have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming by 8 over the Hornets at home as 14-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites over the Cavaliers tonight. 

Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  The Cavaliers are 4-5 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in the first year under John Beilein.  They are coming off two straight upset road wins in blowout fashion over the Wizards by 13 and the Knicks by 21.   

Veterans Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are both healthy and playing great basketball, while Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. are all improved after playing together last year.  And rookie Darius Garland is getting acclimated to playing in the NBA while playing alongside Sexton in the backcourt. 

The Cavaliers are 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings at Philadelphia.  They were underdogs in all four and won outright as 13-point dogs and outright as 2-point dogs.  They also covered as 15-point dogs in a 7-point loss and as 3.5-point dogs in a 2-point loss.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +6 

The New Orleans Pelicans are showing great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets tonight.  The Pelicans are better than their 2-7 record would indicate as they have suffered several close losses this season. 

Indeed, six of the Pelicans’ seven losses have come by 11 points or fewer.  They got on track last time out with a 115-110 road win over Charlotte.  Look for them to give Houston a run for its money tonight and possibly pull off the upset. 

The chemistry for the Rockets hasn’t been great this season with the addition of Russell Westbrook.  They have actually played better without him.  Their defense has taken a huge step back as they are giving up 118.7 points per game this season.  They are only shooting 44% as a team as well. 

The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in hitter last 10 games overall.  Houston is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  Roll with the Pelicans Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic -3.5 

The Orlando Magic are undervalued right now after a 3-6 start against a brutal schedule.  They have handled the teams they should handle in Cleveland, New York and Memphis by winning those three games by a combined 53 points. 

However, the Magic have lost to almost all the tough teams they have faced.  They lost on the road to Dallas, OKC, Toronto and Atlanta, and also lost at home to Milwaukee and Denver. 

Indiana is classified as a team they should beat in my book.  That’s especially the case with the injuries the Pacers are dealing with right now.  They are without three starters in Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb. 

The Magic went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three meetings with the Pacers last season.  The Pacers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Indiana is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Magic are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Magic Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks -3 

The Dallas Mavericks are coming off an upset loss to the New York Knicks last night.  They will be in a bad mood and will come out highly motivated tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.  I think we are getting them at a discount after the upset loss. 

The Grizzlies are just 2-6 this season and have been blown out consistently with all six losses coming by 7 points or more.  The Grizzlies will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an 86-116 loss in Orlando last night.  They’ll be playing their 5th game in 8 days as well, while the Mavericks will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days. 

Plays on road favorites (Dallas) - a good team with a +3 to +7 PPG differential against a terrible team with a -7 PPG differential or worse, after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games are 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996.   

The Mavericks are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The Grizzlies are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing on zero days’ rest.  Take the Mavericks Saturday. 

15* Heat/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +8 

No team has been more impressive than the Miami Heat in the first two weeks of the season.  The Heat have gone 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS and have been greatly undervalued night in and night out.  I believe they are undervalued yet again here catching 8 points against the Los Angeles Lakers. 

I realize the Heat are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a deep team that can handle it better than most.  And that is factored into the line too much.  The Heat made easy work of the Suns 124-108 last night and didn’t have to play their starters too many minutes.  They’ll won’t be tired at all as they’ll get up to face the Lakers in Staples Center. 

I think the Lakers are being overvalued now after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They nearly lost in Chicago last time out, needing to erase a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win as 7-point favorites.  This game will go down to the wire as well.  The Lakers may win, but they will not cover. 

Plays against favorites (LA Lakers) - off two or more consecutive road wins, in a game involving two teams that win 75% or more of their games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Lakers are 5-17 ATS off two or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 41-23 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Heat Friday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets -5 

The Philadelphia 76ers lost Ben Simmons to a shoulder injury in a loss to the Jazz on Wednesday.  He’ll miss at least the next two games, and I’m lining up to fade them in the immediate future.  I think we are getting the Nuggets cheap at home here against the 76ers. 

Denver is off to a 5-2 start this season and coming off a 109-89 home win over Miami.  That was back on Tuesday, so the Nuggets are rested and ready to go working on two days’ rest.  They had the best home record in the NBA last season and continue to have a tremendous home-court advantage this year. 

The 76ers got off to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule but have since dropped two straight road games at Phoenix and at Utah.  Now they’ll actually be playing their 4th road game in 7 days, which is a tough spot for any team in the NBA.  It makes it even worse for them now that they don’t have their floor general in Simmons running the show. 

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 7, 16 and 19 points.  The Nuggets are 22-11 ATS in home games off a win over the last two seasons.  Denver is 19-7 ATS in home games off an ATS win over the last two years.  Take the Nuggets Friday. 

20* Celtics/Hornets TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte +7.5 

The Charlotte Hornets were tabbed as the worst team in the NBA by almost everyone coming into the season.  As a result, there has been value on them in the early going, and there’s no question they are better than expected.  The Hornets are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. 

The Hornets come in having won three straight and having covered four straight.  I think they will be out to prove something tonight against their former teammate in Kemba Walker, who chose the Celtics over them.  Terry Rozier came over from the Celtics to replace Walker, and he’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder as well. 

I love the way the Hornets are playing team basketball and sharing the rock.  Both Devonte Graham (17.3 PPG, 6.7 APG) and Rozier (16.9 PPG, 5.6 APG) have been the catalysts.  P.J. Washington (15.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG) has been one of the best rookies in the NBA and is shooting 46.7% from 3-point range.  Miles Bridges (13.3 PPG) and Dwayne Bacon (11.1 PPG) are both greatly improved over last year, and Cody Zeller (12.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG) provides some veteran leadership and consistent double-doubles. 

The Celtics come in overvalued after having won five straight since a season-opening loss to the 76ers.  But they have been far from dominant with only two of their wins coming by more than 6 points.  They only beat the Knicks 104-102 as 9-point home favorites and the Cavs 119-113 as 6-point road favorites in their last two games.  The Hornets are better than both those teams and should be able to stay within this 7.5-point spread at home. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hornets won 124-117 as 4-point dogs and 117-112 as 3.5-point dogs in their last two home meetings with the Celtics.  Roll with the Hornets Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2 

The Utah Jazz come in highly motivated for a win Wednesday night.  They are coming off two straight road losses to the Kings and Clippers.  But now they are back home where they are 3-0 this season and winning by 17.0 points per game.  Salt Lake City is one of the biggest home-court advantages in the entire NBA. 

The Jazz also come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest since last playing the Clippers on Sunday.  They have owned the 76ers at home throughout the years, going 18-4 SU in the last 22 meetings in Salt Lake City. 

The 76ers are 5-1 and overvalued as a result.  They just lost 109-114 at Phoenix in their last road game.  Yes, they are 3-1 on the road this season, but their three wins came by 6 over Detroit, by 2 over Atlanta and by 1 over Portland.  They needed huge comebacks against both the Hawks and Blazers.  They won’t be so fortunate tonight against the motivated, rested Jazz. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Utah) - after having lost two of their last three games, a marginal winning tam (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jazz are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

Most people tabbed the Charlotte Hornets as the worst team in the NBA coming into the season.  As a result, there has been some value in backing them as the Hornets have opened 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS.  They are certainly better than they were getting credit for coming into the year. 

The Hornets are doing a great job of playing team basketball and sharing the ball.  They have six players averaging at least 12.5 points per game this season.  Terry Rozier has been an adequate replacement for Kemba Walker, PJ Washington is one of the best rookies in the NBA, and Devonte Graham, Cody Zeller, Dwayne Bacon and Miles Bridges have all made big jumps this season.  Plus, they still have Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to lock it down defensively. 

The Indiana Pacers come in overvalued off three straight wins.  Two of those came at home against the Cavs and Bulls, while the other was a road win at Brooklyn.  The Pacers have some serious injury concerns right now playing without their two best players in Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, plus Domantas Sabonis is questionable. 

The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against Eastern Conference opponents.  The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Hornets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Pacers.  Take the Hornets Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2.5 

The Washington Wizards came into the season tabbed as one of the worst teams in the NBA.  As a result, they were undervalued to start the season and remain undervalued right now.  They are 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS and could easily have more wins than they do. 

Two of their losses came by a combined 3 points to San Antonio (122-124) as 11.5-point road dogs and Houston (158-159) as 8-point home dogs.  They also covered as 9-point dogs in an 8-point loss at Dallas and upset Oklahoma City by 12 as 8.5-point road dogs.  Their only poor performance came at home against Minnesota in the game after the deflating loss to the Rockets.  Now, I expect the Wizards to be highly motivated to get their second win of the season tonight at home against the Pistons. 

The Pistons have already played seven games compared to five for Washington.  Detroit will be playing its 8th game in 13 days to start the season and its 3rd game in 4 days.  Making matters worse for the Pistons is that they are so banged up right now.  They are without starters Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson.  Now they are without both Derrick Rose and Tim Frazier, the two backup guards to Jackson.  They are in a world of hurt right now due to these injuries and lack of rest. 

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, winning by an average of 11.3 points per game.  The home team is also 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Pistons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Pistons.  Take the Wizards Monday. 

20* Jazz/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4 

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They want revenge from a 96-110 loss in Utah on October 30th.  But Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in that game, and he is expected to play tonight.  Look for the Clippers to get their revenge in this one. 

The Clippers are 3-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game.  They come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest having last played on Thursday.  Expect a big effort from them here tonight, especially since they have another two days off after this. 

The Jazz just haven’t been very impressive this season.  They are 4-2, but their four wins have come against the Thunder, Kings, Suns and Clippers (minus Leonard).  They also lost to the Kings and lost to the Lakers on the road, going 1-2 in road games with their only win coming by a single point over the Suns. 

The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series.  The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Plays on favorites (LA Clippers) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, in a game involving two teams that had marginal winning records (51% to 60%) last season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Clippers Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +1 

Wrong team favored here.  The Golden State Warriors are now 2000-1 to win the NBA title.  Let that sink in for a minute.  They are literally the worst team in the NBA right now, and I don’t even think it’s really that close.  They are fade material for the time being. 

No Kevin Durant.  No Klay Thompson.  And now now Stephen Curry.  Plus, Kevon Looney has been out with a hamstring injury, and Draymond Green is battling a back injury.  The Warriors just can’t catch a break.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-110 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night.  Worse yet, it will be their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Their lack of depth will really be felt tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets come in on two days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday in a 118-111 road win over the Sacramento Kings.  Most people tabbed the Hornets as the worst team in the NBA coming into the season, but that clearly hasn’t been the case.  And I think they are undervalued for the time being due to the low preseason expectations. 

The Hornets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Warriors are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Golden State is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games playing on zero days’ rest.  The Warriors are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Hornets Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Bucks UNDER 225.5 

The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks are very familiar with one another after playing in a six-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals last season.  They clearly don’t like each other, and this game will be played closer to the vest.  I think it will be a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight as a result. 

Seven of the last eight meetings in this series have seen 222 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  In fact, the Raptors and Bucks have averaged just 206.4 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings.  That’s roughly 19 points less than tonight’s posted total of 225.5, so there is tremendous value with this UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3 

The Chicago Bulls were a popular sleeper team coming into the season.  They were clearly overvalued as they have now been favored in four of their five games, including in all four of their road games.  This team never used to be favored on the road, which shows just how overvalued they were. 

Now, the Bulls are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS and the betting public doesn’t want much to do with them.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Bulls tonight.  They have played four of their five games on the road with their only home game coming against the defending champion Raptors.  Now the Bulls get a team they can handle in the Detroit Pistons. 

The Pistons are 2-3 this season with their only two wins both coming against the lowly Indiana Pacers.  Their three losses have come by a combined 35 points.  The Pistons are without their two best players in Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson, and they could be without Markieff Morris, who is questionable.  Meanwhile, the Bulls are 100% healthy right now. 

Detroit is 5-16 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Magic UNDER 215.5 

The Orlando Magic are 4-0 to the UNDER this season.  They are a great defensive team due to their length at almost every position.  But they are an atrocious offensive team because they lack shooting.  Look for this game to easily go UNDER the number tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Magic rank 29th in the NBA in pace at 99.3 possessions per game.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight and slow this thing down to a snail’s pace.  The Magic rank 29th in offensive efficiency and are shooting just 39.5% on the season.  But the Magic are 3rd in defensive efficiency while holding opponents to 93.7 points per game and 41.2% shooting. 

The Bucks haven’t face a team with the length and defensive strengths of the Magic.  They have played Houston, Miami, Cleveland and Boston with the majority of those teams being guard-led and playing little defense.  The Bucks are a great defensive team in their own right as they are holding opponents to 43.1% shooting this season. 

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with these teams averaging just 201 combined points per game.  That’s nearly 15 points less than tonight’s posted total of 215.5.  There’s clearly some value with the UNDER tonight.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Pelicans OVER 222.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are an OVER machine and have been ever since Alvin Gentry took over as head coach.  He finally has the youngsters to run the offense he wants, which is get up and down the floor and get up a shot as quickly as possible while playing little defense. 

The Pelicans are 4-0 OVER this season.  They rank 5th in the NBA in pace at 106.8 possessions per game.  They are 6th in offensive efficiency at 110.8 points per 100 possessions, and 28th in defensive efficiency while giving up 116.6 points per 100 possessions.  They are combining with their opponents to average 249.2 points per game on the season. 

While the Nuggets like to play at a slower pace, they won’t have a choice here.  The Pelicans will control the pace playing at home here tonight.  And they get their best player in PG Jrue Holiday back from injury after a one-game absence, which benefits the OVER. 

The head-to-head series history favors the OVER, too.  The Pelicans & Nuggets have combined for at least 227 points in eight of their last nine meetings, making for an 8-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 222.5.  The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six Thursday games.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in New Orleans.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 217 

This huge game between the Clippers and Jazz will be played at a snail's pace tonight.  The Jazz rank 28th in pace this season, averaging just 99.3 possessions per game.  The Clippers are 21st in pace at 102.4 possessions per game. 

Not to mention, these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Jazz are 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 92.0 points per 100 possessions allowed.  The problem for the Jazz is on the other end, where they rank 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.5 points per 100 possessions. 

The Clippers have put up big numbers offensively this season, but they’ve played against some bad defensive teams in the Warriors, Suns and Hornets in their last three games.  I think those gaudy offensive numbers have inflated this total.  The Jazz give up just 91.5 points per game and 39.1% shooting on the season, so the Clippers will have their stiffest test yet tonight. 

The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last four home games.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Jazz last 17 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8 

The Washington Wizards have really impressed me this season thus far.  They are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS despite playing their first three games on the road.  Now they play their home opener here Wednesday and come in on three days’ rest having last played on Sunday, so they’ll be ready to go tonight. 

Washington only lost by 8 at Dallas as 9-point dogs in their opener.  They pulled the 97-85 upset at Oklahoma City as 8.5-point dogs.  And the very next night they gave the Spurs all they could handle in a 122-124 loss as 11.5-point dogs.  The Wizards are playing great team basketball with eight players averaging at least 10 points per game. 

The Houston Rockets are clearly one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in the early going.  They are 0-3 ATS despite playing their first three games at home.  They lost outright to the Bucks, barely beat the Pelicans by 3 as 12-point favorites, and also barely beat the Thunder by 4 as 10-point favorites. 

The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference opponents.  Washington is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games after a combined score of 245 points or more.  Roll with the Wizards Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3 

The Indiana Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS with their three losses coming to the Pistons (twice) and Cavaliers.  That’s a Pistons team playing without Blake Griffin, and they were without Reggie Jackson in the second meeting.  And it’s a Cavaliers team that is one of the worst in the NBA. 

The Nets come in on two days’ rest and highly motivated for a win today.  They have opened 1-2, but could easily be 3-0 as both of their losses have come by a single point.  I think we are getting them at a tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites here Wednesday. 

Plays on favorites (Brooklyn) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, first six games of the season, a playoff team from last season who lost four or more of their last five games are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996. 

Indiana is 7-18 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  Brooklyn is 39-20 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last three years.  The Pacers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Indiana is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 7.5-point road underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS this season and are clearly one of the most underrated teams int he NBA in the early going. 

I just don’t trust the Philadelphia 76ers all that much to lay big numbers.  They are 3-0, but two of their wins have come by 6 points or less to the Pistons and Hawks, two teams in the bottom half of the NBA.  The rank just 19th in offensive efficiency and don’t have many shooters, so they are going to go on stretches where points are hard to come by. 

The Timberwolves are taking advantage of their youth this season and rank 11th in pace.  They rank 4th in offensive efficiency, scoring 111 points per 100 possessions.  They are also 11th in defensive efficiency, and it helps that they have a healthy Robert Covington and drafted Jarrett Culver, giving them two of the best wing defenders in the NBA. 

The Timberwolves come in on two days’ rest, so they will be ready to go tonight.  Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday. 

20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +12 

The Memphis Grizzlies are a fun team this year because they actually have some scorers now, and they still play great defense.  They are playing great team basketball in the early going as they have seven players averaging at least 10.7 points per game. 

Ja Morant is the real deal, averaging 18 points, 6 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is his sidekick, averaging 17.3 points and 6.7 rebounds.  And I like the role players in Jonas Valanciunas, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke, Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill, Kyle Anderson and Tyus Jones. 

The Lakers are simply laying too many points tonight.  They are overvalued coming off back-to-back wins and covers over Utah and Charlotte at home.  They will be without Kyle Kuzma and could be without Raton Rondo.  And I like the fact that Jaren Jackson Jr. is a great defender and will make Anthony Davis work for everything he gets. 

The Grizzlies are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Lakers, including outright wins as underdogs in their last two trips to Los Angeles.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Lakers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 against teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game by their opponents over the last two seasons.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

15* Hawks/Heat NBA TV No-Brainer on Atlanta +8 

The Atlanta Hawks are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS this season and one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA to start the year.  They should be 3-0 as they led basically the entire way against the 76ers last night but came up short with a 103-105 loss as 5.5-point home dogs.  They missed a shot at the buzzer that would have won it. 

I actually like the fact that they lost that game because they will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight.  And I’m not concerned at all about the Hawks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this early in the season because they are a young team with young legs built for it.  They have tremendous young talent in Trae Young (34 PPG, 9 APG), John Collins (14.3 PPG, 10 RPG) and De’Andre Hunter (11.3 PPG) leading the way. 

I think this line is inflated due to Jimmy Butler making his season debut for the Heat tonight following the birth of a child.  Butler has been a cancer in his recent stops in Minnesota and Philadelphia.  The ball sticks to him, which won’t allow the Heat to play the nice team basketball they’ve been playing up to this point en route to a 2-1 start. 

The Hawks are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Heat.  All four wins came outright as underdogs, and two of the losses came by a combined 4 points.  The Hawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Atlanta is 31-16 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons.  Take the Hawks Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4 

The New Orleans Pelicans could easily be 3-0 instead of 0-3.  They led the entire game against the Raptors on the road in the opener before losing by 8 in overtime.  They played the Mavericks tough in their second game and lost 116-123.  And last time out on Saturday they only lost 123-126 on the road at Houston as 12-point dogs. 

The Golden State Warriors haven’t even come close to winning.  They lost 122-141 in their home opener to the Clippers.  And yesterday they got crushed on the road 92-120 by a bad Oklahoma City Thunder team.  So they’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. 

The problem for the Warriors is that they don’t have any scorers outside Stephen Curry and De’Angelo Russell.  And Russell isn’t off to a promising start in his first season with the Warriors.  They have no depth, and they really miss Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant.  They also have no inside game as both Kevon Looney and Willie Cauley-Stein are out.  And they play no defense, ranking dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. 

The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency and will test this porous Golden State defense.  The Warriors are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  New Orleans is 8-0 ATS in its last eight Monday games.  Take the Pelicans Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +5 

The Atlanta Hawks are getting zero respect early in the season.  They went on the road as underdogs and crushed the Pistons 117-100 in their first game.  And they upset the Magic 103-99 in their home opener on Saturday.  Now the Hawks are once again underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers. 

It’s a 76ers team that could be without Joel Embiid, who is battling an ankle injury.  The 76ers have opened 2-0 with a good win over Boston in their opener, but they needed a comeback win against the Pistons to beat them 117-111 on the road.  That’s a Pistons team that was playing without both Blake Griffin and Reggie Jackson, arguably their two best players. 

The Hawks rank 7th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency thus far through two games.  They are shooting 51.2% and giving up just 38% as a team.  Trae Young is averaging 38.5 points and 9.0 assists as he appears to be building off the tremendous second half last year.  And they drafted De’Andre Hunter to improve their defense and guard the opposing team’s best player.  He is also shooting 61.5% from the floor and 50% from 3 in the early going. 

Philadelphia is 4-14 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are also 9-23 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Atlanta is 27-13 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  The Hawks went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against the 76ers last season, upsetting them as 4.5, 7.5 and 10-point dogs in the three meetings.  Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Philadelphia.  Roll with the Hawks Monday.