25* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Lakers UNDER 207

You can expect the defensive intensity to be at an all-time high when the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat get together tonight. That has been the case in recent meetings when Kobe and company and Lebron and his teammates have gotten together.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series. All four games saw 185 or less combined points with an average of 179.8 points/game. As you can see, we are getting roughly 27 points of value in backing the UNDER based on their last four meetings.

Sure, the Lakers have a new system under Mike D'Antoni, but that's the biggest reason this total has been inflated. Since defensive stopper Dwight Howard has returned from injury, the UNDER is 2-0 in the Lakers' past two games with a 113-93 victory over Cleveland, and a 104-88 triumph over Milwaukee.

The Lakers know they cannot run with the more athletic Heat, so they certainly aren't going to turn this into a track meet. Look for the Lakers to control the tempo playing at home tonight in what will be a half-court game.

The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Lakers last 7 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. These five trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Wizards/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +4

It's no coincidence that the Washington Wizards have won three straight games heading into this contest with Sacramento Wednesday. After knocking off the Oklahoma City Thunder 101-99 on January 7th, John Wall returned to help lead the Wizards to a 93-83 win over the Atlanta Hawks on January 12th.

Wall played an even bigger role in their 120-91 win over the Orlando Magic last time out, scoring 12 points while dishing out six assists in 20 minutes on January 1th. It was also no coincidence that the Wizards had a season-high 29 fast break points against the Magic Monday.

"It just came out of nowhere how fast we're playing now," said Bradley Beal, averaging 18.3 points during the winning streak. "With John back, the speed is so much faster."

"He brings the added dimension that nobody has," coach Randy Wittman said. "Guys have to run harder."

"These games have not been flukes, we've just been playing very well," said guard A.J. Price, who has scored 34 points while shooting 11 of 21 over his last two games. "We lost so many close games that I think once we started losing so many in a row, it became a mental thing."

Now, riding a mental high, I like the Wizards to pick up win No. 4 in a row at Sacramento tonight. The Kings are not playing well right now, losers of four of their last five with their only victory coming at home by a final of 124-118 against the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers. Three of their last four losses have come by 20 points or more.

This play falls into a system that is 45-17 (72.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on teams (WASHINGTON) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

The Wizards are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Washington is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The Kings are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Sacramento. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 188

This total has been set too high tonight in a battle between the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies. This has become one of the better rivalries in the league over the past few seasons due to their 7-game playoff series back in 2011. The defensive intensity is at an all-time high when these teams get together.

I believe this total has been inflated due to the last two meetings, which both went to overtime. These teams just played on January 11th with Memphis winning 101-98 (OT) at home. The Grizzlies led 95-92 before Tony Parker hit a game-tying 3-pointer at the buzzer to force OT.

The first meeting of the season between these teams took place on December 1st with San Antonio winning 99-95 (OT). This game was tied 87-87 at the end of regulation for 174 combined points.

Essentially, five of the last six meetings in this series saw 187 or less combined points at the end of regulation (not counting Parker's buzzer-beater). Having just played each other less than a week ago, these teams are very familiar with one another, and familiarity breeds low-scoring, defensive battles.

Another big factor in favor of the UNDER is the fact that Manu Ginobli will be out the next 10-14 days after suffering a Grade 1 hamstring strain on January 13th against the Timberwolves. Ginobli is one of the team's leading scorers, and he's great at penetrating the lane and creating easy shots for teammates. His loss certainly benefits the UNDER.

The UNDER is 41-20-1 in Grizzlies last 62 overall. Memphis is 10-1 to the UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. San Antonio is 16-2 to the UNDER in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games following a ATS loss. Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. These five trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Mavs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Dallas -4

The Dallas Mavericks are one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their 16-23 start. I have backed them with success as a free pick in each of their last three games with a 117-112 win at Sacramento, a 104-83 home win over Memphis, and a 113-98 home victory over Minnesota.

Dallas makes the premium card Wednesday as my featured top play as a small home favorite over the Houston Rockets tonight. Dirk Nowitzki is finally healthy and he has returned to the starting line-up, which is the biggest reason for the Mavericks' turnaround.

Houston is overvalued due to getting off to a 21-14 start, but it has come back down to reality here of late. The Rockets have lost four straight to fall to 21-18 on the season. They'll lose No. 5 in a row tonight in blowout fashion at Dallas.

This is a very tired Rockets team, and that is really starting to show of late. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA. They simply won't have the legs to keep up with the Mavericks tonight.

Dallas simply owns Houston. It has won eight straight meetings with the Rockets will going 7-1 ATS in the process. In fact, it has covered six straight meetings in this series dating back to 2011.

Houston is 1-11 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 25-8 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -1.5

The Houston Rockets will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Los Angeles Clippers. They have lost three straight coming in, all of which were on the road. They'll be more than happy to return home tonight where they are 14-6 SU & 13-7 ATS on the season.

The Los Angeles Clippers miraculously blew out Memphis on the road last night 99-73 despite playing without Chris Paul. Teams can usually get by one game without a superstar, but when that superstar misses more than one game in a row they start to really miss him.

Paul (knee) is expected to miss tonight's game at Houston as his is listed as doubtful. The Clippers are clearly overvalued heading into this one because of how well they played without Paul against Memphis, which was playing without leading scorer Rudy Gay. I fully expect LA to get blown out tonight by a hungry Houston team that simply wants this one more.

The Rockets will be the more rested team heading into this one as well. They come in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. The Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Bobcats UNDER 186

The Indiana Pacers and Charlotte Bobcats will take part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two very familiar teams as this will be their 3rd meeting of the season and their 2nd meeting in 4 days. Familiarity leads to low-scoring games as both teams know what the other is trying to accomplish offensively, making it easier to stop.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in this series. The Bobcats and Pacers have combined for 190 or fewer points in all five meetings, including 184 or less in four of the five. That includes a 90-89 Charlotte victory on 11/02 for 179 combined points, and a 96-88 Indiana victory on 1/12 for 184 combined points in their two meetings this season.

Indiana plays at one of the slowest paces in the league. It is scoring just 90.9 points/game and allowing 89.3 points/game on the season, combining with its opponents to average 180.2 points/game. It is scoring a mere 87.9 points/game on the road this year.

The Pacers have scored 96 or fewer points in eight straight games while allowing 97 or fewer in eight straight as well. Charlotte has scored 89 or fewer points in three straight games, averaging just 85.3 points/game during this span.

Indiana is 18-4 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 7-1 in Pacers last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Pacers last 22 vs. Eastern Conference.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Bobcats last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Bulls UNDER 184.5

Both the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls will be hungry for a win tonight, which means their level of intensity defensively will be at an all-time high. I look for a very low-scoring game tonight when these two get together because of it.

Atlanta has lost five of its last six, and it is coming off an 83-93 loss at Washington. It is scoring just 89.5 points/game during this stretch, and 93.4 points/game on the road this season. However, it is holding opponents by 94.2 points/game on the road.

Chicago is one of the best defensive teams in the league. It is allowing just 92.3 points/game overall, including 90.8 points/game at home. However, it is one of the worst offensive teams in the game, scoring 93.5 points/game overall and 91.7 at home.

Recent meeting between the Hawks and Bulls have been typically low scoring. Each of the last three meetings saw 167, 175 and 169 combined points, respectively. In fact, they have combined for 178 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.

Chicago is 13-2 UNDER in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 14-2 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 27-10 UNDER after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers/Grizzlies UNDER 184

The Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies are becoming bitter rivals. They played in a seven-game series last May in the playoffs, which has fueled the fire for their regular season meetings this year. I look for the defensive intensity to be high between these familiar foes tonight.

Looking at the recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that there is some value with the UNDER tonight. Five of the last six meetings have seen 178 or few points at the end of regulation. Also, four of those six have gone UNDER the posted total, and another would have if not for overtime after an 87-87 tie at the end of regulation.

A big factor as to why I like the UNDER in this contest is the fact that Memphis is going to be without leading scorer Rudy Gay (17.8 PPG), who will miss tonight's game to attend his grandmother's funeral. The Grizzlies will likely be a little lost offensively without him considering they run so many plays for him.

Memphis is 9-1 UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 8-0 UNDER off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 7-0 UNDER after scoring 85 points or less this season. These three trends combine for a 24-1 (96%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

Note: This total has dropped to as low as 180.5 in some places since I posted it this morning. I still recommend the UNDER at 180 or higher.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2

The Washington Wizards are one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now due to their 6-28 start. They should be a much bigger favorite tonight against the Orlando Magic.

Washington is finally getting healthy as PG John Wall has recently returned to the line-up. It has won its last two games with impressive victories over the Oklahoma City Thunder and Atlanta Hawks. This will be just the Wizards' 2nd game in 7 days, so they'll be well rested and ready to go.

Orlando is in a big letdown spot here. It is coming off a huge 104-101 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday. Off such a big win, it will be hard for these players to get up emotionally to play the Wizards tonight.

The home team has won three straight and six of the last seven in this series. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Washington is 8-1 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game this season. The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Orlando. Take Washington Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They should be a much bigger favorite at home against the Milwaukee Bucks today.

Toronto is playing its best basketball of the season right now. It has won 10 of its last 13 games overall with its three losses coming to the Spurs, Thunder and Kings. Its last four wins have all come by 18 points or more. Toronto is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games.

The Raptors are a perfect 7-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. Toronto is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Raptors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Raptors. Take Toronto Sunday.

15* Hornets/Knicks NBA Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 193

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this contest between the New Orleans Hornets and New York Knicks. I look for a low-scoring affair between two of the better defensive teams in the league.

New York is giving up just 96.3 points/game at home this season. Off three straight losses, including two in which it allowed over 100 points, the Knicks will clamp down defensively in this one. They'll be up against a Hornets team that is scoring just 92.0 points/game.

These teams met twice last season with the UNDER going 2-0. New Orleans beat New York 89-85 at home for 174 combined points, while the Knicks beat the Hornets at home 102-80 for 182 combined points. I look for a similarly low scoring game here. The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in New York. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings over..

New York is 19-6 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 10-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Hornets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 17-4 in Hornets last 21 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last 8 games following a ATS loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2

The Detroit Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this contest with the Utah Jazz. Detroit has won seven of its last nine games overall with its two losses both coming in overtime. It even has home wins over the Heat, Hawks and Bucks during this stretch.

Utah is a completely different team home and away. It is 11-4 at home this season, but just 8-15 on the road. That includes a 95-103 road loss at Atlanta last night. Detroit is a very respectable 10-9 at home this season, limiting opponents to just 93.5 points/game. Utah is allowing nearly 102.0 points/game on the road.

The Jazz are a very tired team right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days. Meanwhile, the Pistons will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days. I'll gladly back the fresher, hotter team as only a small home favorite in this one.

The home team has won three straight and five of the last six in this series. The Jazz are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games playing on 0 days' rest. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. Roll with the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated to beat the San Antonio Spurs and put an end to their losing streak in this series. Memphis has lost five straight to San Antonio since knocking the Spurs out in the first round of the 2011 NBA playoffs. That includes a 95-99 overtime loss at San Antonio in their first meeting of the season on December 1st.

That home victory by the Spurs was no surprise considering the home team has dominated this series, winning 12 of the last 15 meetings. Memphis is 13-4 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.7 points/game while limiting foes to 86.7 points/game.

San Antonio is a mediocre 13-8 on the road where it is giving up 100.1 points/game. The Spurs really have not played all that well of late, failing to cover the spread in three of their last four. They have lost their last two road games with an 83-100 setback at New York and an 88-95 loss at New Orleans.

Memphis is a perfect 10-0 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. It is outscoring these good teams 98.9 to 88.3, or by an average of 10.6 points/game. As you can see, this is a team that takes their game up a notch when playing against the best competition the league has to offer. Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

15* Bulls/Knicks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 191.5

Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this game between the New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER in a contest that will be nationally televised on ESPN tonight. These National TV games always seem to bring out better top defensive effort by both teams.

New York is much worse off offensively without Raymond Felton, who remains out with a finger injury. Felton is great at running the pick and roll, and the Knicks simply do not have an ample replacement for him. They are coming off a 76-point effort at Indiana last night as they shot just 34.8% from the floor.

Chicago is one of the best defensive teams in the league. It is giving up just 91.9 points/game this season on 43.3 percent shooting. However, the Bulls are one of the worst offensive teams in the game. They are scoring only 93.4 points/game on 43.9 percent shooting this year.

The Bulls and Knicks had combined for 184 or less points in three straight meetings (at the end of regulation) before a 110-106 road win by Chicago earlier this season on December 21st. However, New York went off to 45 points in the 4th quarter as the teams combined for 72 in the final period, and that's not going to happen again.

Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Bulls are 9-1 to the UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. They are combining with their opponents for for an average of 175.5 points/game in this spot. The UNDER is 20-6 in Bulls last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Hornets -2

The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now due to their 10-25 start. This team has been battling injuries all season as C Anthony Davis (13.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and SG Eric Gordon (15.6 PPG, 4.4 APG) have missed a combined 43 games this season.

However, both Davis and Gordon are back and healthy, and this team is really playing up to its potential now because of it. In fact, the Hornets have won three straight games outright as underdogs. They went on the road to beat Dallas 99-96 as a 6-point dog before coming back home to top San Antonio 95-88 as an 8-point dog, and Houston 88-79 as a 2-point dog.

I have backed the Hornets with success in each of their last two games, and I'm going to continue to back them tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves because I believe they are still undervalued as only a 2-point favorite. This is a Minnesota team that remains without Kevin Love, and one that is coming off an ugly 84-106 loss at Oklahoma City.

New Orleans lost to Minnesota 102-113 in their first meeting of the season on December 14th. That loss works in its favor considering it is 26-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference. Minnesota is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2.5

I have been riding the Boston Celtics here of late with a lot of success. Boston is riding a current four-game winning streak, which is their longest of the season. I have been on them in all four games with the Celtics posting a 3-1 ATS mark. Their only ATS loss came by a single point in an 8-point win over Phoenix as a 9-point favorite.

The reason I'm riding this team right now is because they are finally at full strength. One of the most underrated players in the league, guard Avery Bradley, has returned from injury to provide a big spark. He is the best perimeter defender in the league in my opinion, and he will make life very difficult on James Harden tonight.

Houston has been on an incredible run of late, but as a result it is overvalued. The Rockets have won 10 of their last 13 games overall, but they just had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 79-88 loss at New Orleans on Wednesday. With their momentum halted, I look for the Rockets to suffer a second straight defeat on the road tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 85 points or less. Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be highly motivated for a win tonight as they welcome the Utah Jazz to their home court Friday night. Atlanta is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games overall, so it is clearly undervalued right now as only a 4.5-point home favorite over the Jazz.

Look for the Hawks (20-14) to put forth their best effort of the season tonight as they try and put an end to this 4-game skid. Atlanta is 11-6 at home this season, limiting opponents to 96.8 points/game.

Utah is just 8-14 on the road this year, giving up 101.5 points/game. The Jazz are overvalued after winning four of their last five with all four wins coming against the Timberwolves, Suns, Mavs and Bobcats, who are all .500 or worse this season.

The Jazz are 0-8 ATS in road games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. They are losing in this spot 88.8 to 99.0, or by an average of 10.2 points/game. They just cannot seem to string together road wins. They'll be up against a very hungry Atlanta team tonight. Take the Hawks Friday.

15* Heat/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -3

The Miami Heat are highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost four of their last seven games overall, including a 77-87 road loss at Indiana on Tuesday. I believe they are actually undervalued right now due to their recent struggles, and they should be a bigger favorite over Portland in this one.

The Blazers have been playing very well of late, but as a result they are overvalued. They have won 11 of their last 14 games overall, but they have mostly been beating up on inferior opponents. They will finally meet their match tonight in the defending champion Heat.

The road team has won five straight and six of the last seven in this series. The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 meetings in Portland, winning the last three outright.

The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest opponents. The Blazers are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Portland is 4-19 ATS after having won 4 of its last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Blazers are 3-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Take the Heat Thursday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana -4.5

The Indiana Pacers are rolling right now, and they're not about to cool off on National TV against the depleted New York Knicks tonight. Indiana has won 11 of its last 14 games overall heading into this one.

The Pacers have been absolutely dominant at home this season. They have gone 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points/game. They are limiting foes to just 87.3 points/game at home this year. The Pacers have won eight straight home games coming in with all eight victories by 5 points or more, including an 87-77 win over the defending champion Miami Heat on Tuesday.

The New York Knicks have really cooled off after a fast start this season. They are just 5-6 SU in their last 11 games overall, including 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games. Their recent struggles have coincided with an injury to PG Raymond Felton (finger), who has missed the past six games. Also, leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (29.0 PPG) has been suspended for tonight's game, further hurting the team.

Indiana has won 28 of its last 39 home meetings with New York. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Knicks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. New York is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Pacers Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Hornets +3

The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most undervalued teams in the league at this point of the season due to their 9-25 start this season. They have been battling injuries all season, but they are finally healthy and a dangerous team because of it.

Eric Gordon (18.2 PPG) and Anthony Davis (13.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG) have missed a combined 43 games this season, which is the biggest reason for their early struggles. Both are back and healthy and helping out this team. Gordon scored 24 points while Davis added 17 in a 95-88 win over San Antonio as an 8-point underdog on Monday.

Houston is overvalued right now due to the fact that it has been red hot of late. I look for the Rockets to cool off in a very tough spot for them tonight. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days. Off a big emotional win over the Lakers last night, this is clearly a letdown spot for them.

Houston is 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The home team has won six straight meetings in this series. The Hornets will be very hungry for a win having already lost twice in Houston this season. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -9

I have rode the Boston Celtics with success in each of their last three games. They beat Indiana at home 94-75 as a 3-point favorite, won at Atlanta 89-81 as a 5.5-point dog, and won at New York 102-66 as a 7.5-point dog.

The biggest reason I've been backing the Celtics of late is the fact that they've underachieved through the first half of the season, and I have no doubt this is a much better team than their 14-17 record at the time I started backing them.

Avery Bradley is one of the most underrated players in the league. He has just recently returned from injury to give the Celtics a big boost the past four games. Bradley is arguably the best perimeter defender in the league and he'll make life miserable on these Phoenix guards tonight, just as he did on J.R. Smith Monday. Also, Rajon Rondo returns from his one-game suspension.

This is clearly a rebuilding year for the lowly Phoenix Suns. They are off to just a 12-24 start this season, going 14-21-1 ATS in the process. The Suns have been atrocious on the road, going 2-15 while getting outscored by 10.2 points/game. I faded them with success against Milwaukee last night as they lost 99-108. That makes this a tough situation for Phoenix as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.

Phoenix is 1-10 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 2-16 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. They are losing in this spot by 12.5 points/game. Phoenix is 0-8 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Take the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -5.5

Off four straight losses, the Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a win tonight. Their losses have come against Detroit and Indiana on the road, as well as red hot San Antonio and Houston at home. They had beaten Miami at home in their last win before this 4-game skid.

Finally, the Bucks get a break in their schedule tonight against the Phoenix Suns, losers of eight of their last nine games overall. Phoenix is just 2-14 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 10.2 points/game. It is giving up a whopping 106.6 points/game away from home this year.

Phoenix is 0-7 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. It is losing in this spot by an average of 9.2 points/game. Milwaukee is a very profitable 57-30 ATS in its last 87 games following 4 or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Bucks Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +8.5

The New Orleans Hornets have played the San Antonio Spurs very tough this season, but they are 0-2 in two meetings. They lost 95-99 at home as a 7-point underdog on October 31st, and 94-99 on the road as a 13.5-point dog on December 21st.

The Hornets will want revenge from those two heartbreaking defeats, and they should not be an 8.5-point home dog tonight. That's especially the case considering New Orleans is finally at full strength as SG Eric Gordon just recently returned the line-up. He helped lead the Hornets to a 99-96 overtime victory at Dallas on Saturday, which was their 3rd road win in the last six games.

San Antonio is overvalued right now due to a run in which it has won eight of its last nine games while going 6-3 ATS in the process. This run has been against some very weak competition. With the Lakers on deck Wednesday, and having already beaten the Hornets twice this year, the Spurs could be overlooking them just enough to lose this game, let alone cover the inflated 8.5-point spread.

New Orleans is 24-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 33-18 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The home team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings in this series. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New Orleans. Roll with the Hornets Monday.

15* Celtics/Knicks NBA Monday No-Brainer on Boston +6.5

The Boston Celtics (16-17) are hungry to get back to .500 on the season tonight with a victory over the New York Knicks. I have been on Boston its past two games with a 94-75 home win over Indiana as a 3-point favorite, and an 89-81 road win at Atlanta as a 5.5-point underdog.

I believe this team is ready to turn the corner and win a third straight game for only the second time this season. Boston just recently got Avery Bradley back from injury, and he is one of the most underrated players in the league. His perimeter defense is as good as you will see in the NBA.

New York is overvalued due to its fast start. It has won two straight as well, but it needed to come from way behind to beat Orlando last time out. This team is without starting point guard Raymond Felton until late January, and they have been inconsistent without him.

Boston has owned this series with New York. It has won 14 of the last 17 meetings dating back to 2009. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. New York is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a win. Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Take the Celtics Monday.

Note: I still recommend the Celtics at +7.5 now that Rajon Rondo has been officially ruled out.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Bobcats +9

The Detroit Pistons should not be a 9-point favorite against any team in the league, not even the Charlotte Bobcats. This is a much improved Bobcats' team this year that will give the Pistons a run for their money, possibly pulling off the upset tonight.

Detroit is overvalued right now due to winning four straight games coming in. Its last three wins have all come by 6 points or less, so it's not like it is blowout out the opposition. Off a 1-point home win over Atlanta last time out, it is in a big letdown spot tonight against the Bobcats.

An easy way to tell that Detroit is overvalued is the fact that it has not been a favorite of more than 7 points in any game this season. In fact, the 13-22 Pistons have only been a favorite 11 times this year with nine of those being a 5-point favorite or less.

Charlotte put an end to its long losing streak with an impressive 91-81 road victory at Chicago on December 31st as an 11.5-point underdog. It did lost to Cleveland 104-106 in its most recent game, but this team comes in fresh and ready to bounce back. In fact, this will only be the Bobcats' 2nd game in six days, so they'll be giving 100% effort in this one.

This play falls into a system that is 25-7 (78.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a losing record. Bet the Bobcats Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics +5

The Boston Celtics are undervalued right now due to a recent 4-game losing streak before last night's 94-75 win over Indiana. I picked the Celtics last night, and I'm on them again Saturday as I believe they are going to put a run together here soon.

Boston just recently got Avery Bradley back from injury. His presence will take a lot of pressure off of Rajon Rondo, who also recently returned from injury. This team is finally starting to get healthy and there's no question they are going to string some wins together in the near future.

I believe that Atlanta has overachieved with its roster in the first half of the season, and as a result it is overvalued. It lost at Detroit last night 84-85, using a ton of energy to try and come back as it outscored the Pistons 22-11 in the 4th quarter.

Meanwhile, Boston coasted to its victory and rested in the 4th quarter, so it comes into this game in a much better frame of mind. The Celtics didn't have a single player play more than 30 minutes last night, while the Hawks had all five starters play more than 31 minutes. In fact, Jeff Teague, Al Horford and Lou Williams all played more than 40 minutes.

The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Atlanta. The last two meetings between these teams were decided by a combined 4 points. Boston has won four of the last five meetings with its only loss coming by a single point. Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* Bulls/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 191

The oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. This game will be played on National TV on ESPN, which will bring out the best effort defensively from both teams. I don't expect either team to top 95 points in this one.

The Chicago Bulls don't need to be on National TV to play defense. It is their specialty as they are limiting opponents to just 91.6 points/game this season. However, they are scoring a mere 92.4 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 184.0 points/game on the season.

Miami has been playing solid defense at home, giving up 96.9 points/game. It will have no trouble shutting down this mediocre Bulls' offensive attack tonight. The Heat are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but rarely do they face a defense as stiff as the one they'll be up against tonight.

A look at the recent history between these teams indicates that this total has been inflated. Chicago and Miami have combined for 190 or less points (at the end of regulation) in 10 of their last 11 meetings. That includes an 83-72 home victory for Miami in their most recent meeting, and a 96-86 (OT) home win for Chicago in their previous meeting in a game that was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation.

The UNDER is Under is 20-7 in Bulls last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 15-4 in Bulls last 19 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last 7 home games. The UNDER is 9-1 in Bulls last 10 games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are more motivated for a win tonight than they have been all season. They are coming off four straight losses while dropping eight of their last 10 games overall. There's no question they will be giving 110% effort to try and right the ship tonight.

A big reason for the Celtics' struggles of late is their schedule, which has featured seven road games. Also, eight of those 10 games have come against teams that would currently be in the playoffs if the season were to end today. It's safe to say the the Celtics are battle-tested heading into this showdown with Indiana.

While the Celtics are undervalued due to their recent cold streak, the Pacers are certainly overvalued due to their recent success. Indiana has won nine of its last 11 games overall. However, seven of their nine wins during this stretch came against teams with losing records. They have simply taken advantage of a very soft schedule over the past month.

The Celtics are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* T'Wolves/Nuggets NBA Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +8

The betting public has jumped all over the Denver Nuggets tonight. This line opened at 6.5 in most places and has already been bet up to 8. I'm going to fade the public and back the Minnesota Timberwolves showing excellent value here tonight.

Denver is overvalued because it just recently put an end to the Los Angeles Cliippers' 17-game winning streak with a 92-78 home victory on Tuesday. That win has the public all over them in this one, and I fully expect the Nuggets to suffer a big emotional letdown after such a huge victory. Also, starting PG Ty Lawson is doubtful to play with an Achilles injury.

Minnesota comes in undervalued after its 84-106 loss at Utah last night. That was arguably the worst game the Timberwolves have played all season, and there's no question they will be motivated to bounce back with a win tonight. I know they are playing a back-to-back, but this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days, so fatigue won't be a factor.

Minnesota has played Denver very tough in recent meetings. The Nuggets have only beaten the Timberwolves once by more than 7 points in the last six meetings. Minnesota lost 107-113 and 103-101 (OT) in its last two trips to Denver, respectively.

The road team is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings, and the Timberwolves are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Denver. Minnesota is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. It is also 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Timberwolves Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors -3.5

The Toronto Raptors continue going under the radar despite being one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won six of their last seven games overall, including a 123-88 victory at Orlando last time out on December 29th. That means they've had three days' rest heading into this one.

While the Raptors are well-rested, the Portland Trail Blazers come into this game on a back-to-back. They won at New York 105-100 as a 9.5-point underdog, which was a huge win for them. I look for the Blazers to suffer a big letdown here tonight as they simply aren't able to get up emotionally for Toronto after that win inside Madison Square Garden last night.

Portland is 5-10 on the road this season, getting outscored by 6.8 points/game. Toronto is 7-5 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 3.4 points/game. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls will be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been all season. As a result, I'll back them as only a 3.5-point favorite over the lowly Orlando Magic. Chicago has lost three of its last four while going 0-4 ATS in the process.

This recent run has the Bulls way undervalued heading into this contest. They are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season with an 81-91 home loss to Charlotte, allowing the Bobcats to put an end to their 18-game losing streak. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is one of the best in the business in getting his players to respond from a bad defeat.

Orlando is in a world of hurt right now after losing second-leading scorer Glen Davis (16.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG) for 4-6 weeks with a shoulder strain. Now, guards Jameer Nelson (hip) and E'Twuan Moore (elbow) have missed the past two games, and each is questionable to return tonight. Orlando has lost six straight coming in, including a 110-112 overtime loss to Miami last time out. I look for the Magic to suffer a hangover from that tough loss to the rival Heat and drop their 7th straight tonight.

The Bulls are 45-22-2 ATS in their last 69 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Chicago has won six of its last seven meetings with Orlando. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -3

The Cleveland Cavaliers are hungry for a win tonight. They have lost two straight in heartbreaking fashion to Atlanta (94-102) and Brooklyn (100-103) in the closing seconds. I look for them to take out their frustration on the lowly Sacramento Kings tonight and to pick up a blowout home victory.

Cleveland comes in on three days' rest having last played on December 29th in Brooklyn. Meanwhile, Sacramento will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. The Kings lost 97-103 at Detroit last night. They won't be able to match the intensity of the well-rested Cavaliers in this one. The Kings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.

Sacramento is just 1-13 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by an average of 10.7 points/game away from home this year. The Kings are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss. They are also 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* 76ers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +9

The Los Angeles Lakers are simply laying too many points to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. They have not done well in the role of the big favorite over the last several seasons because they always tend to play down to their competition.

Philadelphia is undervalued because it has lost two straight and eight of its last 10 games overall. Each of its last three losses have come on the road by 7 points or less to Brooklyn, Golden State, and Portland. It has won two of its last five with a 99-80 home win over Atlanta, and a 99-89 triumph on the road at Memphis, both playoff teams. This recent stretch certainly has the 76ers motivated for a win here tonight.

The Lakers are overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games overall. That includes a 104-87 home victory over the hapless Portland Trail Blazers last time out. They could be looking ahead to their game against the Los Angeles Clippers next, who have won 17 straight games.

Los Angeles is 9-26 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of its last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 2-14 (88%) ATS in its last 16 Tuesday games. The Lakers are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The road team is 7-1 ATS (88%) in the last 8 meetings. Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets needed a spark and they've gotten it with a coaching change. Avery Johnson has been fired, and interim head coach P.J. Carlesimo has taken over. He has led the Nets to back-to-back wins by a combined 19 points.

I look for the Nets to give the San Antonio Spurs a run for their money tonight. The Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, so this is a very tough situation for them.

This play falls into a system that is 27-5 (84.4%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (BROOKLYN) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.

Brooklyn is way better than it has shown in recent weeks, and as a result it is undervalued heading into this contest tonight. Roll with the Nets Monday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 195.5

This is a home and home situation for Utah and Los Angeles tonight. These teams just played in Utah on Friday as the Clippers squeaked away with a 116-114 victory. Both teams were on fire as the Clippers shot 49.4%, while the Jazz shots 47.9%. There's no way either team shoots that well again.

I look for the familiarity of these teams having just played two nights ago favors a low-scoring game. Both teams know what one another likes to do offensively, which will allow the defenses to make the proper adjustments to stop it. That high-scoring game Friday has provided is with some excellent line value on the UNDER in this one.

The Clippers have allowed less than 100 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall. In fact, they have yielded 85 or less in six of their last eight contests. The Jazz have scored less than 100 points in eight of their last nine, and they have allowed less than 100 in six of their last nine.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-3 in Clippers last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Celtics/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 195

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors. I look for neither team to top 95 points in this low-scoring, defensive battle.

Boston will be motivated following one of its worst losses of the season. It fell 77-106 at the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, and off sch a poor defensive performance, there's no question it will be getting after it on that side of the ball tonight.

Golden State is certainly an improved defensive team this season as it is allowing less than 100 points/game this year. It is coming off two of its best defensive performances of the season with a 94-83 win at Utah, and a 96-89 home victory over Philadelphia.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Celtics last 26 Saturday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Hornets -2.5

The New Orleans Hornets are way undervalued due to their recent 11-game losing streak. Seven of those 11 losses came by 7 points or less, so they just weren't getting the breaks. They beat the Orlando Magic 97-94 last time out on Wednesday to put an end to the skid, and I look for them to go on a nice run here with the Raptors and Bobcats up next.

Toronto comes into this game way overvalued after having won five of its last six games overall. Four of those wins came at home against the lowly Magic, Pistons, Rockets and Mavericks. They also won at Cleveland, but were torched 80-100 at San Antonio on Wednesday to put an end to their five-game winning streak. They should be a much bigger dog tonight on the road against the Hornets.

The Raptors are just 2-15 SU & 6-11 ATS on the road this season. They are getting outscored by a whopping 10.5 points/game away from home thus far in 2012. Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pistons UNDER 191.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons. Miami is going to be without second-leading scorer Dwyane Wade (suspension), and it could be without their best shooter Ray Allen (shoulder), who is listed as questionable.

A look at recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Miami beat Detroit 98-75 on April 8th in their most recent showdown for 173 combined points. The Heat topped the Pistons 88-73 for 161 combined points in their previous meeting on March 23rd.

Detroit has combined for 188 or fewer points with five of its last six opponents. The only exception was a double-overtime loss at Atlanta last time out. They combined for 165 points with Indiana, 164 with the Los Angeles Clippers, 188 with Toronto, 168 with Washington and 185 again with Washington.

The Pistons are 18-4 to the UNDER in their last 22 games after allowing 120 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-1 in Miami's last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Heat last 13 Friday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -9.5

The Brooklyn Nets have just made a coaching change amidst their poor run of 10 losses in their last 13 games. Avery Johnson has been fired, replaced by veteran head coach P.J. Carlesimo. I believe this move will spark new life into the Nets and give them a big boost tonight.

This is still one of the most talented teams in the league, and it's only a matter of time before the right coach puts it all together. The Nets have an excellent chance of working out the kinks against a Charlotte Bobcats team that is arguably the worst in the league once again in 2012-13.

Charlotte has lost 16 straight games heading into this contest. It is just 7-21 on the season, including 2-10 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 road games. It is getting outscored by an average of 14.3 points/game away from home this season.

The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Nets are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest. Charlotte is 11-32 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 3-16 ATS in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Nets Friday.

15* Celtics/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +8.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are way overvalued right now due to their 14-game winning streak. There's no question that it's an impressive run, but now is the time to fade them against a gritty Boston Celtics team that will simply want this one more.

Boston is coming off one of its strongest performances of the season, and it should be getting more respect than it is from oddsmakers because of it. The Celtics went into Brooklyn and came away with a 93-76 road victory on Christmas Day. They limited the Nets to 40.6 percent shooting while forcing 20 turnovers.

Boston has won three of its last four meetings with Los Angeles. It is 2-0 in its last two visits to Los Angeles, including a 94-85 victory as a 5.5-point underdog in the most recent meeting between these teams. In fact, it hasn't lost any of its last five trips to L.A. by more than 2 points.

The underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings dating back to 2009. Take the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz UNDER 204

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz. The biggest reason I like this UNDER is the fact that Utah is without starting point guard Mo Williams, who is averaging 12.9 points and 6.7 assists per game.

Without Williams, Utah's offense won't be very efficient. They'll slow it down even more and look to get the ball inside to Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap one just about every possession. The Jazz have been playing in many low-scoring games of late. In fact, each of their last seven contests have seen 195 or less combined points.

Golden State is coming off three straight high-scoring games, including a 115-118 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in overtime last time out. That's a big reason why this total has been inflated tonight. I look for Utah to control to the tempo at home and for this game to be slowed down to a snail's pace without Williams out there running the show. The Jazz are allowing just 94.3 points/game at home this year.

The Warriors are 15-4 to the UNDER in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is 15-4 to the UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 28-9 to the UNDER in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games since 1996.

These teams have combined for 203 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings overall, including 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Utah dating back to 2009. The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Warriors last 17 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -13

The San Antonio Spurs have been absolutely dominant at home this season. They are 10-2 at home where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 12.1 points/game. That includes a 129-91 victory over Dallas last time out on December 23rd, and this team is even more dangerous when given a lot of rest.

Toronto is overvalued right now due to its 5-game winning streak. Those five victories came over the Mgaic, Pistons, Cavs, Rockets and Mavericks with four of them coming at home. The Raptors have been atrocious on the road this season. They are 2-14 SU & 6-10 ATS on the road, getting outscored by an average of 10.0 points/game.

The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. San Antonio is 20-5-2 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The 35-13-4 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. win. San Antonio is 36-14-3 ATS in its last 53 home games. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Spurs Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +3

The New Orleans Hornets are highly motivated for a win tonight. They blew a 21-point lead to Indiana last time out to lose 75-81 as the Pacers handed them their 11th straight defeat. They have simply not been able to get the breaks to go their way as seven of those 11 losses have come by 7 points or less.

A Christmas Break is just what this New Orleans needed to regroup. While the Hornets are almost back at full strength health-wise, the Magic are not. They just loss Glen Davis to a shoulder injury for the 4-6 weeks. That is a huge blow considering Davis was second on the team in scoring (16.0 PPG) and second in rebounding (7.9 RPG).

New Orleans is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 road games following 4 or more consecutive losses. The Hornets are 28-15 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog. Orlando is 0-7 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. The Hornets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bet New Orleans Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +7

The Denver Nuggets are showing great value as a 7-point road underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Tuesday. Los Angeles is way overvalued due to its current 13-game winning streak and counting. The Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their mediocre 15-13 start against an absolutely brutal schedule.

Denver has played 19 of its first 28 games on the road this season. They've done an excellent job of posting a winning record despite that schedule, and they are playing their best basketball of late. The Nuggets have won four of their last five, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven. They would love nothing more than to put an end to the Clippers' winning streak.

The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 32-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Heat NBA Finals Rematch on UNDER 206

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat are very familiar with one another after playing in the NBA Finals this past June. Their series went to five games with Miami winning the final four to win the championship. Four of those five meeting saw 202 or less combined points, so they were typically low-scoring. I look for this rematch in the regular season to follow suit with less than 206 combined points by game's end.

Both teams have been very solid defensively. Oklahoma City is giving up 96.2 points/game overall, and it are combineing with their opponents to average 196.9 points/game on the road this season. Miami is giving up 97.4 points/game overall, and it is combining with its opponents to average 200.8 points/game in all games this year. As you can see, both teams are combining with their opponents to average well less than this posted total.

Miami is 18-4 to the UNDER after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma City is 8-1 to the UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat's last 5 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Lakers Christmas Day No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers. These teams are very familiar with one another after playing each other recently. New York beat Los Angeles 116-107 on December 13th less than two weeks ago. Because of that high-scoring affair, oddsmakers have inflated this total in the rematch, which I anticipate to be much more lower scoring.

Both teams know how to defend, especially the Knicks, who are giving up just 96.5 points/game on the season. The Lakers have been defending well at home this year, limiting opponents to just 96.1 points/game. They are scoring 101.5 points/game at home, so they are combining with their opponents to average 197.6 points/game. New York is combining with its opponents to average 198.7 points/game on the road this year. As you can see, both numbers are well below the posted total in this one.

The UNDER is 42-19-1 in Lakers last 62 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Lakers last 52 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Lakers are 15-5 to the UNDER after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -5.5

The Brooklyn Nets are highly motivated for a victory here Sunday. They have lost three straight and eight of 10 coming in to sit just one game over .500 on the season. There's no question that they want to put an end to this skid.

Brooklyn has had plenty of time to stew over its recent losing streak. It hasn't played since Wednesday, December 19th so it has had three days' rest in between games. The Nets have had time to regroup and prepare for the 76ers, which will make the difference in this one.

Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Philly is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. These four trends combine for a 23-2 (92%) System backing Brooklyn. Roll with the Nets Sunday.

15* Lakers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles PK

The Los Angeles Lakers come in fresh and ready to go. They will be working on three days' rest since last beating the Charlotte Bobcats at home on December 18th. This extra practice time will do wonders for the Lakers as they continue to try and get down Mike D'Antoni's system.

While the Lakers come in fresh, the Golden State Warriors will be extremely exhausted. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days, and their 6th game in 9 days tonight. They won't be able to match the energy level of the Lakers in this one.

Los Angeles has simply owned this series with Golden State. It has won 17 of the last 18 meetings dating back to 2008, winning 94% of the time. Given the situation and their dominance in this series, the Lakers should be a heavy favorite tonight and they're not.

This play falls into a system that is 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Roll with the Lakers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +1

The Houston Rockets are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this contest with the Memphis Grizzlies. They have won four of their last five games overall, which includes a 109-96 victory at New York.

While the Rockets come in on two days' rest, the Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. There's no question that Houston will be the fresher team, and with the way it is playing right now, it should be laying points instead of being the underdog.

Houston is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 6.3 points/game. Bet the Rockets Saturday.

15* Bulls/Knicks NBA Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 188

This game between the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks will be a low-scoring affair between two of the best defensive teams in the league. I don't expect either team to eclipse 95 points in this one.

Chicago is allowing just 90.3 points per game this season while holding opponents to 42.4% shooting. However, it is scoring a mere 92.8 points per game on 44.1% shooting. As you can see, it is combining with its opponents to average 183.1 points per game this season. New York is yielding 94.5 points per game at home.

Recent history between these teams shows that we are getting tremendous value with this UNDER tonight. Each of their last three meetings have seen 184 or less combined points at the end of regulation. That includes a 93-85 home victory for Chicago on December 8th with 178 combined points in their lone meeting this season.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. These two trends combine for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 35-16 in Bills last 51 games overall, and 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 191.5

This total has been inflated tonight in a battle between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game where I expect neither Boston nor Milwaukee to put up more than 95 points in this one.

The recent history between these teams shows that this total has been inflated tonight. They have already met three times this season with Milwaukee winning 99-88 on the road on November 2nd for 187 combined points, Boston winning 96-92 on the road on November 10th for 188 combined points, and Milwaukee winning at home 91-88 on December 1st for 179 combined points. So this will be their 4th meeting of the season already, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

Looking back further I find some even more astonishing numbers in this head-to-head series. Boston and Milwaukee have combined for 191 or less points at the end of regulation in eight of their last nine meetings with one another. Their last four meetings dating back to last year have seen an average of 178.8 combined points/game.

Boston is 40-23 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Bucks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/76ers UNDER 188.5

The Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. Philadelphia has gone OVER the total in six straight, while Atlanta has gone OVER the number in three of their last four. These recent OVER runs for both teams has created some line value on the UNDER tonight.

Atlanta is scoring just 94.7 points/game while giving up 90.9 points/game on the road this season for an average combined score of 185.6 points/game. Philadelphia is scoring 93.2 points/game and allowing 96.9 points/game on the season for an average combined score of 190.1 points/game.

The recent history between these teams shows that this number has been inflated. Philadelphia and Atlanta have combined for 185, 185 and 166 points in their last three meetings, respectively. These teams clearly tend to play in defensive battles, and I expect that to be the case again tonight.

Atlanta is 15-2 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. I'm seeing an average combined score of 179.1 points/game between the Hawks and their opponents in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Timberwolves TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 199

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. I look for a high-scoring affair as both teams score at least 100 in this one while combining for 200-plus by game's end.

Oklahoma City has been scoring at will while playing tremendous basketball over the past month. The Thunder have won 15 of their last 16 games overall. The biggest reason for their success has been their offensive efficiency considering they have score 100-plus points in 15 of those 16 contests.

Minnesota has not been good defensively of late, which is a big reason why the OVER is 4-1 in the Timberwolves' last five games overall. They have given up 102 or more points in five straight contests, so the Thunder are certainly in line to put up at least 100 in this one.

A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have set the number too low tonight. Each of the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2010 have seen 201 or more combined points. In fact, eight of those contests have seen 214 or more combined points. This makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the OVER in this one. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Hornets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +13.5

The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value as a 13.5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday night. This number has been inflated, and we'll take advantage by backing the dog in the final game on the board tonight.

The Clippers are overvalued due to their current 10-game winning streak. The betting public is now all over this team due to this streak, which has forced the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

New Orleans will be amped up for this game to try and end the Clippers' winning streak, while also trying to put a halt to their own eight-game slide. They nearly ended it in their past two games, falling 94-95 at Portland as a 5-point dog, and 96-103 at Golden State as a 7.5-point dog.

New Orleans just recently got Anthony Davis back from injury, and he is clearly their most important player as he ranks 2nd in the team in scoring (14.6), 1st in blocks (2.0), 1st in rebounds (8.2) and 1st in steals (1.4).

The Hornets won their first meeting with the Clippers this season 105-98 on the road on November 26th as a 13-point underdog, and they didn't even have Davis for that contest. With him in the line-up this time around, he'll make life very difficult on Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan of Los Angeles.

This play falls into a system that is 61-26 (70.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

New Orleans is 29-12 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The Hornets are 27-14 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Hornets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with New Orleans Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 192

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics will be fatigued tonight after playing Tuesday. This will be the second of a back-to-back for both squads as Boston fell 89-100 at Chicago, while Cleveland lost 99-113 at home to Toronto.

The fact that both teams lost actually works in our favor here. Cleveland has lost four straight now, and it will be fighting extra hard defensively to try and get a win. Boston has dropped three straight while allowing at least 100 points in all three road losses to Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. It will certainly be laying it all on the line defensively tonight.

The recent history between these teams indicates that the total has been inflated tonight. The Celtics and Cavaliers have combined for 169, 183 and 175 points in each of their last three meetings, respectively.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.

Cleveland is 17-5 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 29-16 to the UNDER when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons, including 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games playing on 0 days' rest. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA on ESPN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Knicks/Nets UNDER 194.5

The New York Knicks take on the Brooklyn Nets tonight in what will be one of the best rivalries in the league for years to come. These rivals are already very familiar with each other having played each other twice.

Brooklyn won the first meeting 96-89 in overtime on November 26th, while New York took the second 100-97. The Nets shot 52.9% in that game, while the Knicks made 14 of 28 (50%) from 3-point range. So, this will be their 3rd meeting in less than a month.

Neither team is likely to shoot as well as it did in the last meeting. Their familiarity with one another will lead to a low-scoring affair tonight. Plus, Carmelo Anthony is banged up and questionable to go tonight for New York after missing the past two games due to injury.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Nets last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 23-7 in Nets last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 34-16-2 in Nets last 52 road games. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New York. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Hornets/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the New Orleans Hornets and Golden State Warriors. Both teams are better defensively than they get credit for, and neither is explosive offensively.

New Orleans is scoring just 91.9 points/game and giving up 98.1 points/game. Its defensive numbers will continue to improve as long as Anthony Davis stays healthy. He has missed the majority of their games and he just recently returned.

Golden State is scoring 99.6 points/game and allowing 98.4 points/game, including 96.9 points/game at home. Mark Jackson has this team playing the way he envisioned when he took over, which is defense first.

Taking a look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see that there is value with the UNDER. Golden State and New Orleans have combined to score 193 or less points in four straight meetings. That includes an 83-81 Hornets' home victory in their most recent showdown.

This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset win as a road underdog, playing with 2 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

The Milwaukee Bucks should be a much bigger home favorite tonight over the Indiana Pacers. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league, and they continue going under the radar despite a solid 12-10 start.

Milwaukee has won four of its last five games overall, which includes an impressive road win at Brooklyn. Its only loss came last time out to the Los Angeles Clippers as nothing went right offensively. Turns out that wasn't such a bad loss considering the Clippers have won 10 in a row and counting.

These teams have already met once this season with Milwaukee topping Indiana 99-85 at home on November 14th. That game was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate as the Bucks took a 60-34 lead into halftime before calling off the dogs after intermission.

Indiana is getting too much respect due to its three-game winning streak that has come against the Cavs, 76ers and Pistons. The Pacers are 16-32 ATS in their last 48 road games following two straight wins by 10 points or more. Indiana is 11-27 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bucks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Nets UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle Tuesday in Brooklyn as neither team surpasses 95 points in this one.

The Nets are averaging 95.9 points/game this season while allowing 93.8 points/game. That's an average combined score of 189.3 points/game between the Nets and their opponents this season. This team is built for the half court, and they'll control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The UNDER is 3-0 in Utah's last three games overall. The Jazz have really struggled offensively in their last two contests, falling 84-99 to Phoenix on December 14th and 86-99 to Memphis the following night.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 Tuesday games. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Nets last 6 games following a ATS win. These three trends combine for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 9-3 in Nets last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* T'Wolves/Heat NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Minnesota +9

The Minnesota Timberwolves are finally starting to get healthy, and this is going to be a very dangerous team going forward because of it. They have opened 12-10 despite battling through injuries all season.

Sure, Minnesota blew a 12-point halftime lead to fall to Orlando last night 93-102. However, it was likely overlooking the Magic and looking ahead to this contest against the defending champion Miami Heat tonight.

The Timberwolves will be giving a much better effort in this one. They had been playing very well before that loss last night. They have still won six of their last eight games overall, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests.

Minnesota is 15-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Timberwolves are 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They have been battling through injuries all year and still find themselves in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference at 12-9.

Minnesota has won four straight and six of seven overall. Ricky Rubio just returned on Saturday, while Kevin Love (flu) missed Saturday's 114-106 overtime victory over Dallas. Both Rubio and Love are expected to be in the line-up together for the first time this season Monday.

These teams already met once this season with Minnesota topping Orlando 90-75 at home on November 7th. With Rubio and Love both in the fold this time around, I'm expecting a similar blowout on the road tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (MINNESOTA) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Take the Timberwolves Monday.

15* Hornets/Blazers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +5.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are overvalued right now after back-to-back victories over the Raptors and Spurs. They caught the Spurs in a tough spot for San Antonio as they were playing the second of a back-to-back. This also sets the Blazers up for a letdown after such a big win.

New Orleans is highly motivated to put an end to its 6-game losing streak that has featured losses to the Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Wizards, Thunder and Timberwolves. That is an absolute brutal schedule, and it certainly gets easier tonight against the 10-12 Blazers.

The Hornets are starting to get healthy as they finally got top pick Anthony Davis back in the line-up recently. Davis' return is huge as he ranks 2nd on the team in scoring (14.6 PPG), 1st in rebounding (7.7 RPG) and 1st in blocks (2.2 BPG).

Portland is 1-11 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is actually getting outscored 106.2 to 95.1 in this spot, or by an average of 11.1 points/game. Roll with the Hornets Sunday.

25* NBA Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5

This is one of the best situations you will see all year in the NBA. All factors point toward a blowout in favor of the Chicago Bulls tonight as they host the Brooklyn Nets.

Chicago comes in fresh as it has had two days' rest since a solid 96-89 victory at Philadelphia on Wednesday. It will use those fresh legs to run the dead tired Nets out of the building tonight.

Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. If that situation wasn't already tough enough, the Nets are coming off a double-overtime victory over Detroit last night by a final of 107-105. Simply put, they won't have anything left to give against Chicago in this one.

The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Bet the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1

The Denver Nuggets are one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now due to their 11-12 start. The Memphis Grizzlies are certainly overvalued due to their 14-5 start, and that is starting to show as they have lost two straight coming in despite being heavy favorites in both.

The biggest reason Denver is just 10-11 right now is due to a brutal schedule. It has played a ridiculous 17 road games compared to just 6 home games to this point. Following a five-game road trip, there's no question that it will be excited to return home tonight.

The Nuggets are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season. They are scoring 103.8 points/game and allowing 94.0 points/game, outscoring their opponents by an average of 9.8 points/game at home this year.

Denver is 27-3 in all home meetings with Memphis since 1996. The Grizzlies are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet Denver Friday.

15* Celtics/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this nationally televised showdown on ESPN. Any time a game involving the Boston Celtics has a total set over 200, the UNDER is certainly worth a look. I look for the defensive intensity to be at a high level for both teams in this National TV battle.

Boston has already played in four overtime games this season, including their 117-115 victory over Dallas in double overtime on Wednesday. Even with those four OT games included, the Celtics are still averaging just 98.3 points/game and giving up 97.5 points/game on the season.

Houston has also been a part of three overtime games already, which is certainly more than average as well. The Rockets are scoring 104.2 points/game and allowing 104.8 points/game on the season.

Boston is combining with its opponents to average 195.8 points/game, while Houston is combining with its opponents to average 209.0 points/game. Add those numbers up and divide by two and we get an average of 202.4 points/game, which would be the expected total if these teams played each other. We're getting a full 4 points of value here with the UNDER, and I believe it's even more than that considering these teams have combined to play in 7 overtime games already.

The two most recent meetings between these teams have been extremely low scoring. Houston beat Boston 93-77 at home on 3/18/11 for 170 combined points. Boston topped Houston 97-92 in overtime on 3/6/12 in a game that was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation for a combined 168 points. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.

This play falls into a system that is 71-36 (66.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +5

The Golden State Warriors are overvalued right after having won eight of their last nine games overall. There's no question that this team is better than it was expected to be, but they should not be favored at Orlando tonight.

Golden State's only loss during this stretch came at home to Orlando by a final of 94-102 on December 3rd. After winning five straight road games to start this 7-game trip, the Warriors are in a huge letdown spot tonight.

They are coming off a win over the defending champion Miami Heat 97-95 on Wednesday. After earning their biggest win of the season, there's no question the Warriors will have a hard time getting up to face the Magic tonight.

Orlando has won seven of its last eight meetings with Golden State. Its only loss since 2008 came in overtime by a final of 123-120 on the road. The Magic are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. Take the Magic Friday.

15* Lakers/Knicks TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 208

The Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This game will be nationally televised on TNT, which tends to bring up the defensive intensity from both teams.

New York is one of the better defensive teams in the league as they give up 95.3 points/game on the season, including 91.2 points/game at home. The Knicks have allowed less than 100 points in eight of their last nine games overall.

The Lakers are yielding a respectable 98.8 points/game and they are certainly putting emphasis on their play at this end of the floor after a tough recent stretch. They have lost five of their last six contests, so this team will be giving a little bit extra at the defensive end to try and pick up a big win.

A look at the recent history between these teams makes it easy to see that this total has been inflated. The home team won their two most recent meetings. Los Angeles won 99-82 on 12/29/11 for 181 combined points, while New York won 92-85 on 02/10/12 for 177 combined points. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

New York is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 184.1 combined points/game in this spot. The Lakers are 14-4 to the UNDER after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 34-15-2 in Lakers last 51 Thursday games. The UNDER is 16-7 in Knicks last 23 Thursday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Spurs/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 210

Oddsmakers have inflated this total due to recent performances from both teams that were very high-scoring. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game that will be nationally televised on ESPN, which always tends to bring out stronger defensive intensity by both teams.

San Antonio just beat Houston 134-126 in overtime for 260 combined points. Utah just beat the Lakers 117-110 on the road for 227 combined points. Both the Rockets and Lakers have been atrocious on the defensive end recently, which is the biggest reason for those high-scoring affairs. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this total too high based on those recent performances, knowing that the betting public would jump on the OVER if they didn't.

Taking a look at this series between the Spurs and Jazz, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Each of the last six meetings in this series have seen 210 or less combined points. Six of the last seven meetings in Utah have seen 208 or less combined points. Utah is only giving up 93.6 points/game at home this season, while San Antonio is yielding 97.3 points/game in all games this year.

The Jazz are 18-5 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games since 1996. Utah is 70-47 to the UNDER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996. The Jazz are 22-10 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Bobcats +8.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value as an 8.5-point home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. The value is simply too good to pass up, and I'll gladly fade the public and put my smart money on the big home dog in this one.

This is an extremely tough spot for a Clippers team that is way overvalued due to its seven-game winning streak. Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. It is coming off a big 94-89 road win at Chicago on National TV last night, setting it up for a big letdown spot tonight in Charlotte.

The Bobcats are way undervalued right now due to their current eight-game losing streak. This skid has come against a brutal schedule as their eight opponents have been the Thunder, Hawks, 76ers, Blazers, Knicks, Bucks, Spurs and Warriors. Four of their five home losses during this stretch have come by 8 points or less. Fresh on one days' rest, and motivated to put an end to this losing streak, the Bobcats will be giving better effort tonight than the Clippers.

The Clippers are 19-38 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1996. Los Angeles is 37-60 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Clippers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games overall. Los Angeles only has one true road win by more than 5 points this season. Take the Bobcats Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Raptors UNDER 188.5

There are two main reasons that I believe this game finishes well below the posted total tonight. Both the Brooklyn Nets and the Toronto Raptors will struggle to reach 90 points because of these two factors.

First, Brooklyn is a tired team right now as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. I look for the Nets to play at a slower tempo offensively because of it. This is an excellent team defensively as the Nets are allowing just 94.0 points/game overall and 91.1 points/game on the road. They are only scoring 93.0 points/game on the road as well.

Toronto is likely to be without two of its top three scorers tonight. Andrea Bargnani (16.0 PPG) is doubtful with an elbow injury, while Kyle Lowry (15.8 PPG, 5.8 APG) is doubtful with a tricep injury. Not having Bargnani's shooting and Lowry's ability to run the offense and create open looks for teammates is really going to hamper Toronto's offense tonight.

Toronto is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 176.5 points/game in this situation. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Brooklyn's last 27 road games. The UNDER is 17-4 in Raptors last 21 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Knicks/Nets ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on UNDER 194

Both the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets are improved defensively this season. I believe oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this rivalry. The defensive intensity will be very high between these two teams in a nationally televised game on ESPN.

These teams already met once this season with Brooklyn topping New York 96-89 at home on November 26th in overtime. That game was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation for 168 combined points, and I look for a similarly low-scoring affair tonight. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series.

The Knicks are yielding just 95.2 points/game this season. They have been an improved defensive team ever since Mike Woodson took over as head coach. The Nets have been even better on this end of the floor, yielding a mere 93.7 points/game on the season. Off four straight losses, I look for Brooklyn to up its defensive intensity even more tonight.

Brooklyn is 8-1 to the UNDER versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. New York is 32-17 to the UNDER as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 14-4 to the UNDER in road games after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Nets last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Line Mistake on Cleveland Cavaliers +7

The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching 7 points to the overrated Los Angeles Lakers tonight. I'll gladly side with the value and back the home dog in a game I believe the Cavaliers can win outright.

Cleveland welcomes back point guard Kyrie Irving from a broken finger. He practiced Monday and is expected to play tonight. His return will be a huge boost to a Cleveland team that has struggled to score of late. Irving leads the team in scoring (22.9) and assists (5.6), and he's the heart and soul of this team.

"I think all the guys are looking forward to having Irving back out there because he does make most of our guys' job a lot easier because he creates so much for himself and for his teammates," coach Byron Scott said. "I'm sure the guys will be happy to have him back out there."

The Lakers are way overvalued this season as they are just 9-12 straight up and 9-12 against the spread. They remain without two All-Stars in Pau Gasol and Steve Nash, and they have really struggled without these two. Los Angeles has lost four of its last five games overall. Its biggest weakness is defending quick point guards like Irving.

The Lakers are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games. Los Angeles is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The home team has won four straight in this series, and three of those four meetings were decided by 6 points or less. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Blazers UNDER 196

This contest between the Portland Trail Blazers and Toronto Raptors Monday sets up for a low-scoring affair. Both teams are in tough spots that will limit their ability to score the basketball.

Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th road game in 8 days. It showed signs of wearing down last night, scoring just 83 points in a 19-point loss to the Los Angeles Clippers.

Portland will likely be playing without two starters tonight. Nicolas Batum (16.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is expected to miss his third straight game with a back injury, while Wesley Matthews (16.0 PPG) is doubtful with a hip injury.

Portland has lost two straight without Batum, including an ugly 80-99 home loss to the Kings last time out. The Blazers really cannot afford to be down two starters because they have the worst bench in the league.

Their bench ranks 30th in scoring (14.9 points/game), which is 9.0 points worse than the 29th-ranked bench (Lakers). They are really going to miss the 32.4 points that Batum and Mathews combine to average. I look for Portland to slow down the tempo and run its offense through LaMarcus Aldridge in this one.

The UNDER is 19-7-1 in Raptors last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Blazers last 13 games following a ATS loss. Roll with the UNDER In this game Monday.

15* Hawks/Heat NBA Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 195

With first place on the line tonight in the NBA's Southeast Division, the Miami Heat (13-5) host the Atlanta Hawks (12-5) in a battle between easily the two best teams in this division. I look for the defensive intensity to rise more than your normal game in this one.

Miami has been talking about playing better defense after back-to-back losses to the Wizards and Knicks in which they allowed a combined 217 points. They did play much better their last time out on this end, limiting the Hornets to 90 points on 44.9 percent shooting.

"We didn't do everything right," coach Erik Spoelstra said. "We still had a handful of breakdowns. But the commitment on the defensive end was better than the past two games."

Atlanta continued its solid play defensively with a 93-83 road win at Memphis last time out. It is allowing just 93.6 points per game on 43.3 percent shooting on the season, including 90.4 points on 42.9 percent shooting on the road.

This has been a very low scoring series in the past. In fact, Miami and Atlanta have combined to score 195 or less points at the end of regulation in 15 straight meetings. Fourteen of those saw 194 or fewer points. That makes for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Take the UNDER 195 points in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -3.5

The Phoenix Suns will roll at home tonight over the Orlando Magic. Phoenix comes into this game way undervalued, while Orlando is certainly overvalued due to recent results. Getting the Suns as only a 3.5-point home favorite is a gift from oddsmakers.

Phoenix is going to be highly-motivated for a win following six straight losses. The biggest reason for this losing streak is a tough schedule that has featured seven of their last eight games on the road. The Suns will certainly be looking forward to returning home tonight where they are 5-4.

Orlando is overvalued due to winning its first two games against the Lakers and Warriors on its current five-game road stand. It has lost its last two, and now it will be fatigued coming into this one as this will be its 5th road game in 8 days. The Magic are clearly one of the worst teams in the league, and they are just 3-7 on the road this season.

The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings in this series. The favorite is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings dating back to 2009. The Magic are 4-14 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. Phoenix is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 187.5

This one is about as obvious as it gets folks. It sets up perfectly for a low-scoring game, and I look for Boston and Philadelphia to not even come close to approaching this 187.5-point total.

Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back in this home and home situation. Making matters tougher for both teams is the fact that they went to overtime last night, and looked very tired down the stretch. They combined for just 178 points at the end of regulation, and 189 points after OT.

Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett were really dragging for the Celtics, while the 76ers time and time again were up against the shot clock down the stretch. The familiarity between these teams after playing last night will make points extremely tough to come by.

Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Jason Terry all played more than 42 minutes for the Celtics last night, while Jrue Holiday, Jason Richardson, Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young played more than 41 minutes for the 76ers.

The UNDER is 6-2 in 76ers last 8 road games. The UNDER is 7-3 in 76ers last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games playing on 0 days' rest. The UNDER is 13-4-1 in Celtics last 18 Saturday games. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Magic/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5

The Orlando Magic are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as just a 2.5-point underdog to the Sacramento Kings tonight. I look for the home team to roll to a double-digit victory and easily cover this generous spread Friday.

Sacramento realizes it needs to start stringing some wins together if it wants to have any chance of making the playoffs come season's send. It is coming off a solid 107-100 home victory over Toronto. This team will be fresh and ready to go tonight as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.

Orlando is on its fourth game of a grueling five-game road trip. It is getting way too much respect for victories over the Lakers and Warriors to start this trip as both of those teams were likely over looking the Magic. This will be their 4th road game in 6 days, and they won't be able to match the energy level of the Kings on their tired legs.

The Magic are 33-51 ATS after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. Sacramento has won 10 of its last 15 home meetings with Orlando. The Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Roll with Sacramento Friday.

20* Lakers/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 210.5

These familiar foes will do battle tonight on ESPN in front of a nationally televised audience. Oklahoma State took out Los Angeles in five games in the playoffs last season, so there is sure to be some added intensity in this one tonight.

I look for that added intensity to lead to a lower-scoring, defensive battle. I believe oddsmakers have simply set the bar too high in this one. When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that is the case.

Eight straight meetings (not including overtime) between the Lakers and Thunder have seen 209 or less combined points at the end of regulation. In fact, six of those eight meetings saw 196 or less points. That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.

Los Angeles is running a new system under Mike D'Antoni, but that system cannot be 100% effective without two important pieces. Steve Nash remains out with a leg injury, while Pau Gasol is doubtful as he deals with a knee injury. The Lakers' offense will not be hitting on all cylinders tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 35-9 (79.5%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making >=50% of their shots. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +1.5

The Denver Nuggets should not be an underdog to the Indiana Pacers tonight in a game I believe they'll win outright. They are the better team and will simply want this one more.

Denver has lost four of its last five games, including three road losses by a combined 7 points to the Jazz, Warriors and Hawks. It will be highly motivated for a victory after this tough recent stretch, and I still believe this is one of the best teams in the league, which will show by season's end.

Indiana has won four of its last five coming in and will relax because of it. The Pacers are riding high right now because all four of those wins have come by a combined 18 points, so they have been pulling games late. With a road trip to Oklahoma City on deck, the Pacers could be overlooking the Nuggets here.

The Nuggets are 40-24 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 5-17 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers are 17-37 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Denver is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 vs. NBA Central foes, and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Indiana. Take the Nuggets Friday.

15* Knicks/Heat TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 201

This is one of the biggest games of the early season. New York wants to show Miami that it is a legitimate contender in the East with a win tonight. I look for the defensive intensity to be at the highest level for both teams and for points to be very hard to come by.

These teams already met once this season on November 2nd with New York beating Miami 104-84 for 188 combined points. I look for a similar final combined total tonight as this one stays well below the number.

In fact, the Knicks and Heat have combined to score 200 or less points in 11 straight meetings. That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.

This play falls into a system that is 46-14 (76.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8

Off three straight losses to the Thunder, Rockets and Clippers, I look for the Utah Jazz to bounce back with a blowout home victory tonight over the Orlando Magic. There's no question the Jazz will be highly motivated after blowing a 14-point lead in the second half to lose 104-105 to the Clippers last time out.

This is the perfect storm. Utah will be hungry for a win, while Orlando is in a huge letdown spot following back-to-back road wins over the Lakers and Warriors. It's only human nature for the Magic to let down after those two big wins, and they won't be able to match the intensity of the Jazz because of it.

Utah is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.8 points/game. It is only allowing 94.6 points/game on 42.0% shooting at home this year. Points will certainly be hard to come by for an Orlando team that is only averaging 90.6 points/game on 41.9% shooting on the road.

The Jazz are a 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with Orlando. They have won each of their last three home meetings with the Magic by 9 points or more, and that was when they had Dwight Howard. Take the Jazz Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +8

The Miami Heat were overlooking the Washington Wizards last night and looking ahead to their Thursday showdown with the New York Knicks on TNT. They lost to the Wizards last night because they did not give Washington their full attention.

Now, the same will be the case for the Knicks tonight. They will not give the Charlotte Bobcats their full attention as they look ahead to tomorrow's big showdown with the Heat. There is a very good chance New York loses outright because of it as well.

Charlotte will have no problem getting motivated to face the Knicks tonight. It has lost four straight coming in, including the last three all by 6 points or less. The Bobcats blew a late 18-point lead to the Blazers last time out with just over five minutes remaining in regulation, eventually losing in overtime. They will be up for this game because of it.

The Knicks are unbeaten at home this season, but when they leave Madison Square Garden it's another story. New York is just 5-4 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by only 2.7 points/game. Charlotte is a very respectable 5-5 at home this season, and this is certainly a much-improved team from a year ago. Bet the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls will continue their solid play of late and win their 3rd straight with a victory over the Indiana Pacers tonight by 5-plus points. They have won their last two with home victories over Dallas (101-78) and Philadelphia (93-88).

Indiana ends its four-game road trip tonight. It won against the Lakers and Kings in its first two games on this trip, which has it overvalued. It lost against the Warriors 92-103 on Saturday, and I believe it is still getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight against the Bulls.

The Pacers are just 4-7 on the road this season where they are scoring a mere 87.5 points/game. They will have a hard time putting the ball in the basket against a Bulls' team that is allowing just 89.6 points/game at home this year.

Chicago is 10-1 in its last 11 home meetings with Indiana, and all ten victories have come by 5 points or more. That makes for a 91% system backing Chicago pertaining to tonight's spread. Take the Bulls Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Nets NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +4.5

The Brooklyn Nets should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Oklahoma City Thunder. This team has been underrated all season as evidenced by the fact that they are not only 11-5 SU, but a very profitable 10-5-1 ATS at the pay window.

Brooklyn had won five straight before an 89-102 loss at Miami on December 1st. That was a tough spot for the Nets as they were playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They have had two days' rest since and I believe they are battle-tested after that loss to the defending champs.

The Thunder come in way overvalued due to their five game winning streak which has seen them cover five straight as well. Those five wins came against the 76ers, Bobcats, Rockets, Jazz and Hornets, which is unimpressive to say the least. They finally meet their match tonight in Brooklyn.

The Nets are 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS at home this season where they are giving up a mere 91.1 points/game. Brooklyn is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This is a much-improved team and it will show that it is a contender for the title with a big win over the Thunder tonight. Bet the Nets Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Pistons UNDER 191

I look for the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons to take part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two of the worst teams in the league with a combined 9-26 record, and it's largely due to their struggles offensively.

Detroit is scoring just 93.2 points/game this season on 44.1% shooting. However, it has remained competitive due to its ability to defend. It is allowing 96.8 points/game overall and 94.0 points/game at home.

Cleveland is scoring 96.9 points/game on 42.3% shooting. A big reason I like this UNDER tonight is that the Cavs are likely to be without their top two scorers. Kyrie Irving (22.9 PPG) is out with a finger injury, while Dion Waiters (15.2 PPG) is doubtful with an ankle injury. Points will be very hard to come by without these two on the floor.

Both teams are tired right now as well, which usually leads to a low-scoring game. Cleveland will be playing its 7th game in 11 days, and it is coming off a double-overtime loss to Portland on Saturday. Detroit will be playing its 6th game in 9 days following Saturday's 77-92 loss at Dallas.

The UNDER is 40-15 in the last 55 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 9-3 in Pistons last 12 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats PK

The Charlotte Bobcats are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They are off to a 7-8 start this season and should be laying more points to the Portland Trail Blazers (7-10) at home tonight.

Motivated for a win following three straight losses to the Thunder, Hawks and 76ers, the Bobcats will be ready to go as they come in on two days' rest since last playing Philadelphia on Friday, November 30th. They will certainly be the more rested, more motivated team in this one.

Portland is a very tired team right now. This will be its 6th road game in 9 days, and it is coming off a 118-117 double-overtime victory over Cleveland. It has lost four of its five games on this road trip thus far, including setbacks at Washington and Detroit. Off that emotional double OT victory Saturday, the Blazers simply don't have much left in the tank.

Making matters much tougher for the Blazers is the fact that they have the worst bench in the league. Their bench is averaging league-lows of 13.0 minutes and 13.9 points per game. The next-lowest scoring bench is the Lakers at 23.4, so the Blazers have by far the worst bench in the NBA, and it's not even close.

The home team has won four straight and eight of the last 10 meetings in this series. The Blazers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Monday games. Portland is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 games following a win. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Bobcats Monday.

15* Magic/Lakers NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando +13

The Los Angeles Lakers are overvalued heading into this contest after their best shooting performance of the season on ESPN against the Denver Nuggets on Friday. They scored 122 points, shot 54.0 percent from the floor, and 17-for-33 (51.5%) from 3-point range.

The Lakers are high right now in the eyes of the betting public because of that performance Friday night. Meanwhile, the betting public off afraid of backing a Magic team that has lost three straight to Boston, San Antonio and Brooklyn. That has created some excellent line value for us tonight.

Orlando is 11-1 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Los Angeles is 5-15 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. win. Los Angeles is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

The Boston Celtics are short-handed right now as they are without Rajon Rondo for one more game as he serves the second of his two-game suspension tonight. The Celtics won without him at home against Portland last night, but they won't be so fortunate tonight.

Boston is a team that is getting up there in age and it doesn't handle these second of back-to-back situations very well because of it. That's especially the case tonight as they will be without the youthful Rondo, who can sometimes pull his team through these situations with his energy.

Milwaukee comes in highly motivated for a win after dropping two straight, and five of its last six games overall. It has faced the Heat, the Bulls twice, and the Knicks during this stretch, so the schedule makers have not been kind to them. I just think this is a great time to back the Bucks as they are motivated against a depleted Celtics' squad.

The Celtics are 14-29 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 39-14-2 ATS in their last 55 vs. NBA Atlantic. Boston is 8-22 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Bucks Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 205

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Nuggets and Lakers. For one, playing on the National TV stage always seems to bring out better effort defensively by both teams. Also, the Mike D'Antoni factor has Lakers' totals inflated right now.

That was certainly the case in their 77-79 home loss to Indiana last time out with a total set of 196 points. The Lakers are only giving up 95.5 points/game overall, including 91.3 points/game at home. This is a team that relies on defense to win games, and one that won't be explosive offensively until Steve Nash returns.

Denver is going to be tired following its 105-106 loss at Golden State last night. This is an improved defensive team as well as the Nuggets are only allowing 98.7 points/game this season. They are also down a bit offensively from last season as they average just 99.7 points/game.

When you look at recent history in this series, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER tonight. The Lakers and Nuggets have combined to score 204 or less points in 12 of their last 13 meetings, which makes for a 12-1 (92%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +13

The Washington Wizards are undervalued at this point of the season due to their 1-12 start. This team finally has some confidence after beating the Portland Trail Blazers last time out to snap their 12-game losing streak to start the season.

Washington is a much better team than its record would indicate, and there's no question that it should have more wins than one by now. Ten of its 12 losses have come by 10 points or less, which is why it is showing such great value tonight as a 13-point underdog. The Wizards have had a chance to win every game but two in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter.

The New York Knicks are way overvalued right now due to their 10-4 start. There's no question that this is a quality team under head coach Mike Woodson, but they are getting too much respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers tonight. New York could have a hard time getting up emotionally to face the team with the worst record in the NBA.

This play falls into a system that is 42-16 (72.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, first half of the season. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* Spurs/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami -5.5

The Miami Heat should be a bigger favorite tonight at home against the San Antonio Spurs. They come in on a ridiculous four days' rest having last played on November 24th. They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor tonight, and I look for them to run the Spurs to death.

The reason the Heat will look to push the tempo is the fact that San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. This is the toughest situation in the NBA. The Spurs will not be able to match the Heat's energy level, and as a result they'll get blown out of the building.

A blowout in Miami's favor has been a familiar result in recent meetings between these teams. Miami has won the last two meetings by a combined 52 points. It beat San Antonio 110-80 at home on 03/14/11, and then 120-98 on 01/17/12. I look for a similar result in this one given the situation coming in.

The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest. These three trends combine for a 19-1 (95%) system backing Miami. Roll with the Heat Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5

This is a big letdown spot for the Brooklyn Nets. They are coming off a huge 96-89 overtime victory over their new biggest rivals in the New York Knicks on Monday. Having already beaten Boston 102-97 at home on November 15th less than two weeks ago, the Nets will have a hard time getting up emotionally for this one.

Boston wants revenge from that 102-97 loss as it gets Brooklyn at home this time around. The Celtics are also playing very solid basketball over the past month as they have won eight over their last 12 games overall. Brooklyn has been dealt an easy schedule thus far as eight of its 13 games have come at home. It is just 2-3 on the road this year.

The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series. Boston has won six of the last eight meetings. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

The Nets are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 vs. NBA Atlantic opponents. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Brooklyn is 3-14 ATS in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +3.5

The Washington Wizards are 0-12 on the season. As a result, the betting public doesn't want to touch them. I'm predicting they get their first win of the season tonight against a very beatable Portland team, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

Washington has had several chances to get that first win, and it is a much better team than its record would indicate. Five of its last six losses came by 7 points or less with the lone exception being the Spurs last time out.

Portland is just 6-8 on the season and a very beatable team. It has lost three straight road games to the Suns, Nets and Pistons to fall to 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS away from home this season. It is getting outscored by a whopping 8.2 points/game on the road in 2012.

The Trail Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Portland is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings ML -109

I'll side with the Sacramento Kings on the Money Line Tuesday at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Sacramento is undervalued in the early going, and it should be a bigger favorite here with the way it has been playing of late.

Sacramento has gone 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three games overall. It has blowout home wins over the Lakers (113-97) and the Jazz (108-97) during this stretch. Its only loss came at Utah (102-104) as a 9-point underdog. All four of the Kings' wins have come at home this year.

Minnesota is playing its worst basketball of the season heading into this one. It is 0-5 straight up and 0-5 against the spread in its last five games overall. That includes losses to Charlotte, Portland and Golden State twice. A big reason for the Timberwolves' struggles is that they are banged up health-wise.

The home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series dating back to last season. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games overall. These five trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Kings. Also, the Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento. Bet the Kings Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching double-digit points to the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. This line is simply an overreaction for point guard Kyrie Irving being out for at least three more weeks with a broken index finger.

Cleveland has been very competitive without Irving. It has gone 3-0 ATS it its last three games without him, which just shows that he is overvalued as a player when it comes to setting spreads. The Cavs beat Philly 92-83 as a 4.5-point dog, lost at Orlando 104-108 as a 4.5-point dog, and lost at Miami 108-110 after blowing a late 7-point lead as a 15-point dog.

Memphis is certainly overvalued right now due to winning nine of its last 10 games overall. It has created expectations for itself against the spread that it simply cannot live up to right now. Memphis' biggest spread so far has been 7 points, so this 12.5-point spread is by far the most it has been favored by this season.

The Cavaliers have lost their last three meetings at Memphis by a combined 17 points with their biggest loss coming by 8 points. In fact, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Memphis. The Grizzlies are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Cavaliers Monday.

15* Knicks/Nets TNT Monday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +1

The Brooklyn Nets should not be an underdog at home to the New York Knicks in what is going to be a great rivalry for years to come. I'll side with the undervalued home dog in this one as the Nets take care of business in their new building.

Brooklyn has been dominant at home this season. It is 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS through seven home contests, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points/game on average while limiting them to just 91.4 points/game.

The Knicks are a quality team under head coach Mike Woodson, but I simply believe they are overvalued due to their 9-3 record. All three of their losses have come on the road this season as they are giving up 101.0 points/game away from home.

Both teams are in a tough spot as each will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. However, I believe that favors the Nets a lot more considering they have the deeper bench. The Knicks really only go 8 guys deep, while the Nets go as many as 11 deep.

The Nets are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Brooklyn is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Nets are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Knicks are 7-19 ATS after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996. Take the Nets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +12

The New York Knicks are way overvalued due to their 8-3 start. They have created expectations for themselves from oddsmakers and the betting public that they simply cannot live up to because of it. Detroit is undervalued due to its 3-10 start as the betting public doesn't really want to touch the Pistons.

New York has started showing signs of coming back down to reality here in recent weeks. They have lost two straight to Dallas (111-114) and Houston (103-131) coming in. I do believe this will be a playoff team this year, but the Knicks are not as good as their perception after an 8-1 start. As a result, they are overvalued.

Detroit is really coming around of late. It has won three of its last five contests, including blowout wins over the 76ers (94-76) and Celtics (103-83). This team is going to be improved from a year ago as the season progresses. It's just that they started 0-8 so the perception on them is down, which provides us with excellent line value game to game, especially here tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, first half of the season. Take the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers -1

Off two straight losses, the Los Angeles Lakers are highly motivated for a victory here Saturday night against the Dallas Mavericks. I believe they get it against one of the most overrated teams in the league.

Dallas is 9-24 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Dallas is 18-41-2 ATS in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Mavs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Roll with the Lakers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Warriors/Nuggets OVER 201

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low Friday night between these two potent offensive teams in the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors. I have no doubt they'll combine to score over 201 points as both come in well-rested and ready to get up and down the floor.

Neither team has been putting up points to their full potential to this point, which is the reason this total is much lower than it should be. Denver has been one of the best offensive teams in the league since George Karl took over, but one of the worst defensive squads. That will be the case once again by season's end.

Denver is scoring 102.0 points/game at home this season. Golden State is allowing 101.1 points/game on the road this season. The Warriors are 4-0 OVER in their last 4 games overall with three of those contests coming on the road. All three of those road games saw 204 or more combined points.

Golden State and Denver have combined to score 207 or more points in six straight meetings. In fact, they have combined to score 207 or more points in 15 of their last 16 meetings. That makes for a 15-1 (94%) system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -3

The Denver Nuggets will crush the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight in an absolute mismatch. Denver is undervalued due to its 5-6 start against a tough schedule, and I still believe this will be one of the top teams in the West by season's end.

Minnesota is in a world of hurt right now due to injuries. It is without Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Chase Budinger and Brandon Roy. The Timberwolves are overvalued due to their 5-4 start against a much softer schedule. They have lost their last two games to Charlotte and Golden State, both at home, and they have no chance against the Nuggets tonight.

Denver is 19-2 in its last 21 meetings with Minnesota. It has won 90% of those meetings, which dates back to 2007. It's certainly safe to say that the Nuggets have the Timberwolves' number.

The Nuggets are 42-20 ATS in their last 62 road games. The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nuggets are 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Minnesota. The road team is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Bet Denver Wednesday.