15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 13-9 start, but they've been playing their best here of late.  They are 6-2 straight up in their last eight games overall with one of those losses coming by 3 points at San Antonio as 8.5-point dogs.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The reason the Celtics have a great chance to end the Warriors' 23-0 start tonight is because they lock down opponents on defense.  Indeed, the Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.  Avery Bradley is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and he's just the type of player that can slow down Stephen Curry.

The Warriors could be short-handed tonight against the Celtics.  They are already without Harrison Barnes, but now they may be without Klay Thompson as well.  He scored 39 points in the their 131-123 win at Indiana last time out, but rolled his ankle and has stated that he's only 70 percent healthy right now.  Thompson would be a big loss because he's shooting 51.9 percent on 3-pointers this year and averaging 25.4 points over his last five games.

Boston has average 108.0 points over the past five games and had eight players finish in double figures in Wednesday's 105-100 win over Chicago.  David Lee returned from a heel injury to score 12 points while adding six rebounds in 18 minutes.  Lee should play a big role against his former team tonight and will be extra motivated.

The Celtics played the Warriors tough in both meetings last year.  They lost 114-111 as 18-point road dogs, and 106-101 as 8.5-point home dogs.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when the total is at least 210 points over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Boston is 28-15 ATS in its last 43 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The underdog is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers -3

This is one of the rare times that the Cleveland Cavaliers are undervalued as only 3-point favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.  That's because they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at home to the Wizards, in overtime to the Pelicans, and to the Heat without Lebron James.

But they rebounded with a win over the Blazers last time out, and I look for them to build off of that tonight.  I like the fact that the Cavaliers have had two days off in between games having last played on Tuesday to get ready for the Magic tonight.  They are also expected to get back starting guard Iman Shumpert from injury tonight, which will give them a boost.

The Magic, on the other hand, come into this game overvalued after having won six of their last eight games overall.  They have home wins over the Knicks, Bucks, and Celtics, as well as road wins over the T'Wolves, Clippers and Nuggets during this stretch.  But now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.

Cleveland has simply owned Orlando.  The Cavs are a perfect 11-0 SU & 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Magic dating back to 2012.  They have won those 11 games by an average of 14.1 points per game.  Take the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Thunder UNDER 212.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Atlanta Hawks.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what will be a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers and the betting public think.

The Thunder have been great defensively here of late.  They have given up 99 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  I look for that trend to continue here against a Hawks team that has been held to 98 or fewer in eight of their last 13 games overall.  The Hawks have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 101 points or fewer as well.

Six of the last eight meetings between these teams have seen 206 or fewer combined points.  Five of those have seen 199 or fewer combined points as well.  Based off that recent head-to-head history alone, this total has clearly been set too high tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.

OKC is 7-0 UNDER versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game this season.  The Thunder are 8-1 UNDER vs. poor foul drawing teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this year.  OKC is 7-0 UNDER off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Thunder are 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing solid value as a nice-sized home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  After battling through several injuries in the early going, the Bucks are finally getting healthy and starting to play up to their potential.

The Bucks have won back-to-back home games with a 106-91 win over New York and a 90-88 win over Portland.  They had to erase a late deficit to beat the Blazers, and they will be coming into this game with a lot of confidence after that win.  I also like they fact that they are really getting after it defensively.  They have held each of their last six opponents to 42.1% shooting or less.

The Los Angeles Clippers have squeaked out back-to-back wins over Orlando (103-101) and Minnesota (110-106).  Both meetings between these teams were decided by 5 points or less last season with Milwaukee winning 111-106 at home, its fourth win in the last six home meetings with Los Angeles.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings.  Plays against road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +1.5

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 12-8 start while ranking 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency.  They have obviously been great on both ends of the floor, but it's their improvement on offense that has made the difference this season.

Charlotte has won seven of its last nine games with its only losses coming to conference leaders Golden State and Cleveland.  It has protected its home court very well this season, going 9-3 in all home games.  The Hornets are scoring 105.0 points per game and allowing 97.6 at home this year.

The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 12-7 start to the season.  Well, they have taken advantage of a home-heavy schedule, playing 14 of their first 19 games in Miami.  They are just 2-3 on the road this season, scoring only 90.6 points per game away from home.  They have lost their last two trips to Charlotte since parting ways with Lebron James.

Miami is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Heat are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Charlotte is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Pacers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6

I believe the Golden State Warriors winning streak comes to an end tonight.  I'm just taking the points with the Indiana Pacers for some added insurance.  This is one of the best teams that the Warriors have faced all season, and one that is fully capable of pulling off the upset here.

Indiana is 12-7 on the season.  It has won six straight home games by an average of 11.5 points per game.  That includes back-to-back blowout home wins over Chicago (104-92) and Milwaukee (123-86).  Paul George is among the early MVP favorites as he's averaging 27.6 points, including a career-high 48 in Saturday's overtime loss at Utah.

But the Pacers have now had two days off since that game to prepare for the Warriors.  The Warriors, meanwhile, are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing their 5th road game on a 7-game trip, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have already survived scares at Utah (106-103) and at Toronto (112-109) on this trip, but they aren't likely to be so fortunate against the Pacers, who are playing as well as almost anyone.

Indiana is 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Golden State, including a 104-98 win last year as 4-point home dogs.  Plays on home underdogs (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1996.

Indiana is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record, 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on 2 days' rest, and 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight games coming in for the first time this season.  They lost in overtime to New Orleans on Friday, and after playing 45 minutes in that game, Lebron James sat out a loss to Miami the next night on Saturday.

But now the Cavaliers are well-rested and ready to go having two days off in between games.  The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd road game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days overall.

The Blazers are running on fumes right now, which is not good news for them as they won't be able to match the intensity of the Cavaliers tonight.  The Blazers also aren't a very deep team as they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to do the heavy-lifting.  Lillard played 38 minutes and McCollum 36 in a 90-88 road loss to the Bucks last night.

Portland is 8-23 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Portland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Blazers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Blazers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Cleveland.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally healthy and are going to be a 'play-on' team going forward.  They have opened just 5-15 SU & 7-13 ATS while dealing with a ton of injuries, and that start clearly has them undervalued right now.  They should not be home dogs to the Boston Celtics Monday.

The Pelicans showed what they were capable of when healthy last time out.  They took down Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers 114-108 as 4.5-point home dogs on Friday night.  They have since had two days off in between games to rest and get prepared for Boston.

The Celtics are certainly an improved team, but their 11-9 SU & 11-9 ATS start has them overvalued here.  They gave the Spurs all they wanted on Saturday in a 105-108 road loss.  Now, after coming so close to beating one of the best teams in the NBA, I look at this as a hangover spot.  It will also be the Celtics' 5th straight road game and the final contest in this 5-game trip.

Antony Davis is averaging 34.3 points and 14.7 rebounds in his last three games against Boston as the Celtics simply do not have an answer for him.  Tyreke Evans recently returned from injury, and Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik are healthy now.  The underdog has gone 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.

New Orleans is 25-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 13-4 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 19-8 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two years.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +1

The Milwaukee Bucks were playing short-handed for much of the season up until the last few games.  That has led to a poor 8-13 start, but now they are getting healthy and are starting to play up to their potential.  They have won each of their last two home games in blowout fashion over the Nuggets (92-74) and Knicks (106-91).

Jabari Parker was injured for most of his rookie season.  He has slowly gotten healthier this season, and he made his first start Saturday against the Knicks and had season highs of 17 points and 35 minutes.  O.J. Mayo started at point guard and had 17 points and five assists with one turnover in 35 minutes.  Michael Carter-Williams came off the bench to add 20 points and five assists.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 9-12 this season and cannot be trusted on a nightly basis.  They had to erase a 17-point second half deficit to beat the Timberwolves on the road Saturday.  They rank last in the NBA in turnover differential (-3.3) while also ranking last in the league with 12.4 points per game off turnovers.  Those two stats right there are why the Blazers can't be trusted because they rely too heavily on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to carry them every night.  If one of them has an off game, they don't stand much of a chance.

The Blazers are 4-7 on the road this season, while the Bucks are 6-4 at home.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Trail Blazers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly been one of the better teams in the NBA this season.  They are 11-8 straight up and have won six of their last eight games overall with their only two losses coming to Cleveland and Golden State, the two teams who were in the NBA Finals last year.

Charlotte ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 103.9 points per 100 possessions.  The improvement on the offensive end with the additions of Nicolas Batum and company have made all the difference for this team.  But the Hornets still defend well as they rank 9th in defensive efficiency at 100.2 points allowed per 100 possessions.

The Hornets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the lowly Lakers on Sunday.  This will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for Detroit.

The Pistons have lost each of their last three road games to Milwaukee (by 21), Oklahoma City (by 16) and Brooklyn (by 4) to fall to 4-7 on the road.  The Hornets are 8-3 at home this season.  Charlotte has won five of its last seven meetings with Detroit.  The Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Take the Hornets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -11

The Oklahoma City Thunder are highly motivated for a victory tonight as they look to bounce back from two straight tough road losses to the Hawks and Heat by a combined 8 points.  They should have no problem getting back in the win column in blowout fashion as they return home to face a team they have owned.

The Thunder are 22-3 straight up in their last 25 meetings with the Kings.  They are 13-0 in all meetings in Oklahoma City during this stretch with an average margin of victory of 13.0 points per game.  The Kings have lost 7 of their last 9 road games while surrendering an average of 114.1 points per game.  The Thunder have won their last two home games over the Nets and Pistons by an average of 13.5 points per game.

This is a brutal spot for the Kings.  They just played in a tiring 113-120 road loss to the Houston Rockets yesterday, meaning this will be the second of a back-to-back for them.  The Kings are 0-5 in 2nd of back-to-back situations this season, losing by an average of 12.2 points per game.  The Thunder have had two days off since their loss to the Heat Thursday.  Sacramento is 1-14 ATS in December games over the last two seasons.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Golden State Warriors are getting all the hype in the NBA right now due to their record-setting 21-0 start.  With that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to.  That has been evident of late as they've failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games.

They only won 106-103 at Utah as 7.5-point favorites, and 112-109 at Toronto as 7.5-point favorites last night.  So, they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is a very tough spot for them.  They are laying 10.5 points on the road to the Nets when they shouldn't be.

The Nets have been covering machines, but they don't get much respect.  They have gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have only lost three of their last 14 games by double-digits, so they have been extremely competitive, but the betting public continues to fail to take notice.

In fact, the Nets have played the Warriors as tough as anyone this year.  They lost 99-107 (OT) back on November 14 as 16.5-point dogs.  They actually led that game late in regulation before Andre Iguodala hit a clutch 3-pointer to force overtime.

Playing the Warriors tough is nothing new for the Nets.  The home team is 5-0 SU & in the last five meetings, and the Nets have actually won each of their last four home games this season.  Also, the Warriors haven't beaten the Nets by more than 9 points in any of their last 11 meetings.  That's a perfect 11-0 system backing Brooklyn pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/T'Wolves OVER 203

Look for a high-scoring affair tonight between the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves.  It's almost always a shootout when these teams get together, and I don't expect anything different tonight.

The Blazers are coming off a 227-point effort at home against Dallas and a 234-point effort at home against Indiana.  What's amazing about those two performances is that neither team shot the ball that well, but they just played at such a frantic pace that they went well over the posted totals of 201 and 202.5, respectively.

What I also love about this play is the recent head-to-head history in the series.  The Blazers and Timberwolves have combined for 207, 207 and 234 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 216.0 combined points per game, which is 13 points more than this 203-point total.  Also, the OVER is 414-5-2 in the last 21 meetings, including 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Minnesota.

Minnesota is is 10-0 to the OVER off a game with 15 or less assists over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 38-16-2 in Trail Blazers last 56 Saturday games.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Timberwolves last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Portland is 27-14 OVER as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are a better team than they've shown during their 7-12 start to the season.  But they have dealt with a plethora of injuries for most of the year, and they are finally healthy for the first time.  Because of this slow start, they are undervalued right now, so it's time to get on board with the Bucks in the near future now that they've returned to near full strength health-wise.

The Detroit Pistons come in overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers over the Rockets and Suns at home.  I like this Detroit team, but I don't believe it should be laying 6.5 points to the Bucks, who are pretty much its equals when healthy.  But the recent head-to-head history shows that the Bucks have owned the Pistons.

Indeed, the Bucks are 4-0 straight up in their last four meetings with the Pistons, winning by 21, 15, 16 and 12 points.  That's an average margin of victory of 16.0 points per game.  In fact, the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven meeting with the Pistons.  They haven't lost to Detroit by more than 5 points in any of their last seven meetings.

Plays on road underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Detroit.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* Thunder/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder had won four straight before falling 100-106 at Atlanta last time out.  They had a rare off night shooting just 39.8% in the loss after topping 52% in three of their previous four games.  Look for them to get back in the win column tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in my opinion.  They have played one of the easiest schedules in the league to this point.  Against the three best teams they faced in Cleveland, Atlanta and Indiana, they lost.  Now this will be their toughest test of the season against a fully healthy OKC team that ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency at 107.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder owned the Heat in their two meetings last year.  They won 94-86 at home as 7.5-point favorites, and 93-75 on the road as 4-point favorites.  Kevin Durant only played in one of those two games.  But Durant has returned to the lineup for the past four games, and this team is so much better with him.

Miami is 1-10 ATS versus teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game ovre the last two seasons.  OKC is 68-41 ATS in its last 109 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Thunder are 70-41 ATS in their last 111 after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Thunder Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks OVER 196.5

I believe the books have set the bar too low in this matchup between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks tonight.  Look for a high-scoring affair with both teams topping 100 points in this one as it sails well OVER the posted total of 196.5.

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA.  The Hawks rank 6th in offensive efficiency, scoring 104.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Raptors are right behind them in 7th at 103.0 points per 100 possessions.

Recent meetings tell the story for me.  The Hawks and Raptors have combined for 199 or more points in three of their last four meetings, all of which occurred last season.  The only exception was a 185-point effort last year in which the Hawks shot a season-low 33.0% from the floor, including 8-of-38 (21.1%) from 3-point range.  They still combined to average 209.0 combined points per game in their four meetings last year even with that 185-point effort.

Toronto is 11-1 to the OVER in road games after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Atlanta.  Toronto is 60-31 to the OVER in its last 91 road games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +10

The Denver Nuggets could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have gone 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and this awful stretch has the betting public wanting to avoid them at all costs. But this is the time to buy low on the Nuggets tonight as double-digit underdogs to the Bulls.

Chicago is in a massive letdown spot here.  It is coming off a huge 92-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs last time out, and it's going to be hard for the Bulls to get up for this game against the Nuggets off such a big victory.

Both meetings between these teams last year were decided by exactly five points, and the Nuggets weren't very good last year.  They won by 5 at home and lost by 5 on the road as 10.5-point dogs.  I have no doubt that they can stay within double-digits of the Bulls once again.

Also, the Nuggets are 6-2 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Bulls.  In fact, they have only lost by more than 5 points to the Bulls once in the last 11 meetings.  That's a 10-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans +1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans return home from a tough 3-game road trip.  They had won three straight prior to falling to both the Clippers and Jazz on the road in their last two games.  I look for them to bounce back with a victory now that they are back at home, where they have won their last two over the Spurs (104-90) and Suns (122-116).

The Grizzlies haven't exactly been that great on the road this season, going 4-5 overall, including 2-4 in their last six road contests.  I believe they come in overvalued here due to winning seven of their last nine games overall.

Reinforcements are finally on the way for the Pelicans.  Both Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole are expected to make their season debuts tonight.  Evans was second on the team in scoring last year at 16.6 points per game, but he also chipped in 6.6 assists and 5.3 rebounds.  He was a huge reason for their success.  Cole averaged 9.9 points in 28 games off the bench last year after being acquired from Miami.

Home-court advantage was huge in this series last year as these teams split the season series 2-2 with the home team going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  I look for that trend to continue here.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in.  The Grizzlies are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven trips to New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +8

This is a great spot to fade the Los Angeles Clippers.  The betting public is starting to back them again because they have won three of their last four, but those three wins have come against Denver, New Orleans and Minnesota.  They also lost at home to the Jazz 91-102 during this stretch.

But the real reason to fade the Clippers is because they are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back off their 107-99 win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  Not only that, they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, as well as their 8th game in 12 days.  That's about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.

The Blazers, meanwhile, come in on one days' rest after beating the Lakers 108-96 at home on Saturday.  In fact, they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  This is a young team that will be playing with a lot more energy than the Clippers tonight, and thus they will cover this 8-point spread with ease.

I also like how tough the Blazers have played the Clippers in recent meetings.  They beat Los Angeles 102-91 on November 20 at home in their first meeting as 4.5-point underdogs.  Get this: Each of the previous seven meetings between these teams were decided by 6 points or less.  There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well, so the 8 points is going to come into play.  The Blazers haven't lost by more than 6 to the Clippers in any of the last 8 meetings.

The Clippers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 November home games.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games, and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The road team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5

The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  They are 18-0 and have covered six straight coming in, and the betting public continues to back them night in and night out.  It's now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points on the road to the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They aren't a fancy team like the Warriors, but they simply get the job done.  They have gone 8-7 straight up and 9-5-1 ATS in all games this season.  I really like this team because they play suffocating defense, giving up just 93.2 points per game.

Last year, the Warriors rolled into Sal Lake City in their final meeting and lost 100-110 despite being 10-point favorites.  Utah is now 31-8 straight up in its last 39 home meetings with the Warriors.

Utah is 38-24 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on one days' rest.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Jazz Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are finally healthy and playing up to their potential.  They have won four straight, the last three of which came once Kevin Durant came back from injury.  They have won by 22, 11 and 16 points with Durant back in the lineup.

Now the Thunder have had ample rest heading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks.  They last played on Friday in a 103-87 home win over the Pistons.  They have had two days off in between games.  The Hawks, meanwhile, will be playing their 5th game in 7 days after an 88-108 loss at San Antonio on Saturday.

The Thunder will have a huge edge on the board in this one.  They lead the NBA in rebounding margin (plus-7.7) and outrebounded Detroit 58-38 last time out while holding Andre Drummond to seven boards.  Atlanta was outrebounded 49-43 by San Antonio and ranks near the bottom of the league with a minus-3.7 margin this season.

The Thunder did lose their last trip to Atlanta, but haven't lost consecutive road games to the Hawks since 1993-94 when the franchise was based in Seattle.  They have won nine of their last 12 trips to Atlanta.  The Thunder are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road meetings.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are about as undervalued as they could get right now.  That's because they have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall behind some atrocious defense.  But this should be a good defensive teams with the length they have at all positions, so it's not going to last.

Plus, Jason Kidd returns from his one-game suspension after being apart from the team in a 90-114 loss at Orlando on Friday.  Look for the Bucks to lay it all on the line tonight to turn this around, and for that to really show on the defensive end against the Hornets in this one.

Charlotte had won four straight before a 90-95 home loss to the Cavaliers on Friday.  The Hornets are overvalued due to this recent run.  I certainly expect them to suffer a hangover from that loss to the Cavaliers as they simply couldn't get it done in the 4th quarter.  It's going to be hard to want to play the Bucks after facing a team like Cleveland.

Three of the last five meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, with the latest being a 104-94 road win by the Bucks on December 29th of last season.  These games typically go down to the wire when the Bucks and Hornets get together, so the 6.5 points her could certainly come into play.

Milwaukee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games with a total set of 200 or more points.  The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bucks Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2.5

The Toronto Raptors are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this year.  They are 10-6 and have won three straight with an 11-point road win over the Lakers, an 11-point road win over the Clippers, and a 4-point home win over the Cavaliers.  They have given up an average of just 90.8 points per game in their last four as they have picked it up defensively.

The Wizards are scuffling right now.  They fell to 6-7 with their 78-111 loss to Boston on Friday.  They've allowed an average of 115.6 points per game in their losses this season as they clearly aren't putting enough emphasis on defense.  It appears that coach Randy Wittman is losing his team.

The Raptors want revenge after getting swept in four games in their opening round series to the Wizards in last year's playoffs.  I like their chances given the situation.  Toronto has had two days off having last played on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Washington will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days.  I'll take the more rested, more motivated team in this one.

Plays against home underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Washington is 5-16 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.

The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, 9-1 ATS when the total is 200 or more this season, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  These five trends combine for a 30-1 system backing Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Saturday

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 196.5

The books have been forced to set this total lower than it should be because the Spurs come in having gone under the total in four straight games.  That has provided us with some excellent line value to swoop in and back the over as the Spurs take on the Denver Nuggets tonight.

The Nuuggets are a high-scoring, fast-paced team that plays little defense.  They have scored 103 or more points in seven of their last 10 games overall, and they have allowed at least 98 points in 10 straight games, including 109 or more in each of their last four.  What I love about this over is that the Nuggets will control the tempo because they're playing at home.

I also love the head-to-head stats between these teams that shows this total is too low.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with the Nuggets and Spurs combining for 207, 216, 231 & 208 points.  That's an average of 215.5 combined points per game, which is 19 points more than this 196.5-point total.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers have been the best team in the NBA over the past couple weeks.  They are shooting a league-best 41.6 percent from 3-point range this season and have won nine of 11 games this month.

Paul George scored 40 points and hit seven 3-pointers in a 123-106 win Tuesday at Washington.  C.J. Miles hit eight and scored 32 points.  It's clear right now that this team is hitting on ally cylinders offensively, scoring 112, 123 and 123 points in its last three games overall.

Indiana wants revenge from a 95-96 loss at Chicago on November 16, which was only its 2nd loss in its last 11 games.  The other was a narrow 97-101 road loss at Cleveland.  The Pacers are 5-0 at home during this stretch and should improve to 6-0 in their last six home games with a win Friday.

The home team has won each of the last three meetings in this series, and 10 of the last 12 meetings overall.  The Pacers are 31-11 in their last 42 home meetings with the Bulls. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Chicago is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games following a road win.

Indiana is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Pacers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on 2 days' rest.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks want revenge from a 78-95 road loss at Miami Monday night just four days ago.  That loss had followed up a 4-game winning streak that featured road wins over both the Thunder and Rockets.  The Knicks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS.

The Miami Heat are way overvalued due to their 9-5 start to the season.  But they have played one of the softest schedules in the NBA, and a home-heavy schedule at that.  The Heat have played 10 home games compared to just four road games.  They are 1-3 on the road this season.

I used this theory that the Heat are overvalued when I faded them in an 81-104 road loss to Detroit on Wednesday.  I'll gladly fade them again as there's no way they should be a road favorite over the Knicks here, especially with the Knicks having revenge in mind, thus they'll be the more motivated team.

New York is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent this season.  Miami is 2-13 ATS after having won 3 of its last 4 games coming in over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 38-19 ATS in their last 57 after coming off a 4-game road trip or longer.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans are starting to get more healthy by the day.  It has really paid off as they've put together their two best games of the season in their last two contests.  I look for them to continue to play well tonight as they did themselves out of an early hole due to the injuries.

It started with a 104-90 home win over the Spurs on November 20 as 7.5-point underdogs.  The Pelicans also won 122-116 at home over these same Phoenix Suns on November 22.  Now they have had two days off in between games to get ready to face the Suns again.

Phoenix doesn't have the same luxury as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days.  After losing to the Pelicans, the Suns also went on the road and lost to the Spurs 84-98 the next night.  Leading scorer Eric Bledsoe (23.2 ppg, 5.8 apg, 2.0 spg) missed that game against the Spurs with a knee injury.  Bledson is questionable to return tonight.  I like the Pelicans either way, but if Bledsoe sits it would be an added bonus.

Anthony Davis is averaging 31.2 points and 3.0 blocks over the last four games in which he's played at least 20 minutes.  Ryan Anderson has been a huge spark, too, averaging 28.3 points on 55.8 percent shooting over his last four contests while going 15 of 32 from 3-point range.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four meetings with the Suns with their only loss coming by a mere two points.  New Orleans is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4

Sacramento's best player in DeMarcus Cousins is doubtful to play in this game tonight due to a back injury.  I like the Bucks enough at -4 even if he plays that I'd still recommend them, but it's just an added bonus if Cousins sits out like he's supposed to.

Milwaukee is a team to keep your eye on in the upcoming weeks.  The Bucks were banged up in the early going, but now they are finally healthy and playing to their potential.  That showed in a 109-88 home win over the Detroit Pistons last time out to put an end to a 3-game losing streak, which came in road losses to Washington, Cleveland and Indiana.  Seven different players scored in double-figures for the Bucks in that win over the Pistons.

Sacramento is just 5-10 this season and has been awful when Cousins hasn't played.  The Kings have been particularly poor on the road, going 1-5 while allowing opponents to score 111.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting. The Bucks are a respectable 4-3 at home this season and allowing just 42.4% shooting.

The Bucks are 9-1 ATS off two straight games where their opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 non-conference road games.   The Kings are 9-20-3 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The Bucks are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +1.5

The Detroit Pistons have lost two straight and six of their last eight and really need a win here.  They are undervalued due to this recent stretch, but they've played a brutal schedule this season.  They have played eight of their last 10 games on the road and only five home games all season.

The Miami Heat are overvalued due to their 9-4 start to the season.  They have taken advantage of an extremely easy schedule with 10 home games compared to just three road games.  They are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win coming at Minnesota.

The home team went 3-0 between these teams last year with Detroit winning both of its home meetings with Miami, including a 108-91 victory in its first meeting last year.

The Heat are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. win.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pistons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Miami is 1-10 ATS after allowing 85 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5

We're getting the Orlando Magic at a great price tonight as they basically just need to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread against the Knicks.  The value here comes from the recent success of the Knocks and the recent poor performance ATS for the Magic.

The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and they are overvalued as a result.  They did lose 78-95 at Miami last time out and that will be a sign of things to come.  The Magic are 1-6 ATS int heir last seven games overall, so they couldn't be more undervalued here.

The Magic have played their best basketball at home this season where they are 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS.  They are limiting opponents to just 41.3% shooting at home as their defense has been so much better this year under the guidance of Scott Skiles.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Bulls -2.5

The Chicago Bulls come in well-rested and ready to go.  They were last seen losing 94-106 at Golden State after blowing an 11-point lead on Friday.  They have since had three days off in between games and will be the fresher team in this showdown with Portland.

It also helps that Derrick Rose is expected to make his return from an ankle injury.  Rose missed the Bulls' last two games with a win at Phoenix and a loss at Golden State.  He was a full participant in practice on Sunday and this extra time off has helped him recover.

The Bulls are 8-4 this season.  The last three times they've lost, they've come back their next game and gotten a win, so they are 3-0 following a loss this season.  The Blazers come in overvalued due to two straight wins over the Clippers and Lakers.  They had lost seven straight games prior to winning their last two.  They also played on Sunday, only having one day off in between games.

Plays against home teams (PORTLAND) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in November games are 39-16 (70.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Portland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +9

Off three straight non-covers, the Orlando Magic are showing great value today catching 9 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  This is one of the most improved teams in the league as they've actually won six of their last 10 games.

Conversely, the Cleveland Cavaliers are consistently overvalued.  That's especially the case now that they have covered two in a row with two straight double-digit wins over the Bucks and Hawks.  But they had failed to cover eight in a row prior to their back-to-back covers.

The Cavaliers were already short-handed without Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert.  But now they are also without two starters in Tomofey Mozgov and Mo Williams, so they cannot be expected to win by double-digits given their current state health-wise.

The Magic are 9-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or less over the last two seasons.  Orlando is 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Orlando.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  After a slow start, they have gone on to go 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their only two losses came on the road to arguably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference in Cleveland (97-101) and Chicago (95-96) by a combined five points.

The Milwaukee Bucks come in struggling.  They have gone 1-4 straight up in their last five games overall, which includes a blowout home loss to Boston (83-99), as well as two blowout road losses to Washington (86-115) and Cleveland (100-115).  I don't like their chances of keeping this one close against the Pacers, who come in on two days' rest.

Indiana is 32-10 straight up in its last 42 home meetings with Milwaukee.  It has won six of its last seven home meetings with the Bucks with all six wins coming by 5 points or more.

The Pacers are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Indiana is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +6.5

The New York Knicks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are much-improved with all the additions they made this offseason, which has led to a 6-6 start.  Each of their last three losses have come by 7 points or less, and they have been competitive in every game they've played in.  They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Knicks are well-rested coming into this one as they've had two days off in between games.  They will be up against an Oklahoma City team that will be playing its 4th game in 6 days, and one that remains without its best player in Kevin Durtant.

The Thunder have not played well without Durant here recently.  They lost 85-100 at home to Boston and 114-122 on the road to Memphis before beating Oklahoma City 110-103 as 12.5-point home favorites.  But the Pelicans have only won one game all season, and they were playing without Anthony Davis in that game.

The Knicks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Knicks didn't win their 6th game of the season until Game 42 last year on January 19th, which just shows how much improvement they've made with the addition of Porzingis, Lopez and company.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 213

No Chris Paul and no J.J. Redick is going to spell trouble for the Clippers' offense tonight.  Both Paul and Redick are listed as doubtful, leaving the Clippers without their two starting guards.  In their places will be Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford, which is a huge downgrade on the offensive end.

The Clippers are going to have to rely on defense until those two return, which is what they did in a 101-96 win over Detroit on November 14.  They have had four days off in between games to prepare for the Warriors, so look for them to be sharp on the defensive end behind DeAndre Jordan and company.

This has become a fierce rivalry now that these teams both exchanged words in the offseason.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings, but all four of those were with Chris Paul in the lineup.  The Warriors are very good on offense, but what gets overlooked is that they are 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, too.

They are only allowing opponents to make 42.3% of their shots this season and life is going to be difficult for the Clippers without Paul and Redick in this one.  It's also worth mentioning that Steph Curry's running mate, Klay Thompson, is questionable to play in this game due to a back injury that has limited him all season.

Golden State is 29-13 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Warriors last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Clippers last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-17 in Clippers last 53 Thursday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Bulls/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  With the way the Suns are playing, we are getting them at a tremendous discount.  They are 5-2 at home this season, including three straight home wins over the Clippers (by 14), Nuggets (by 24) and Lakers (by 19).  Not only are they winning, they are dominating.

"The chemistry for this team is pretty good right now," coach Jeff Hornacek said. "They're all cheering each other on. A good sign for a coach to see is them all supporting each other. When you see that, good things happen."

Now they'll be playing against a Chicago Bulls team that will be without its best player in Derrick Rose, who is expected to sit out this game with an ankle injury.  The Bulls come in overvalued due to also going 3-0 in their last three games, but their three wins came against the 76ers, Hornets (by 5) and Pacers (by 1).

Chicago is 0-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  It is losing in this spot by 11.9 points per game.  Phoenix is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Suns are 48-24 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Minnesota Timberwolves are way overvalued right now due to incredibly going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in all road games this season.  But most of those games came in the role of a big underdog, and now they are only 3-point road dogs against the Orlando Magic tonight.

Minnesota is in an awful spot here.  It is coming off an upset win at Miami last night, so it will be playing the second of a back-to-back.  Not only that, it will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Timberwolves, which is one of the toughest spots in the NBA.  Meanwhile, the Magic have had three days off in between games after last playing at Washington on Saturday.

The Magic are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and have consistently been undervalued.  They are 5-6 SU & 8-3 ATS through 11 games.  Four of their six losses have come by 5 points or less to Washington (by 1), OKC (by 3), Chicago (by 5) and Houston (by 5).  You're not going to get this team at a discount like this for too much longer, so it's time to take advantage.

The Magic are 3-0 in their last three home games with impressive wins over the Raptors, Lakers and Jazz.  Orlando is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 meetings with Minnesota, including three straight wins by 13, 9 and 8 points.  The Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that average 56 or more boards per game over the last three seasons.  Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to Orlando.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +1

The New York Knicks want revenge from a 93-95 loss at Charlotte on November 11 less than a week ago.  Kristaps Porzingis hit a game-winning 3-pointer for the Knicks, but it was called off because it came after the buzzer.  I look for the Knicks to have their revenge at home this time around.

New York is clearly one of the most improved teams in the league this season.  It sits at 5-6, but all six of its losses have come by 11 points or less as it has been competitive in every game.  What really shows that the Knicks are undervalued is the fact that they've gone 7-4 ATS.  They should not be underdogs here.

Charlotte has played well at home, but it's been a different story on the road.  The Bobcats are 2-4 on the road this year with their only wins coming against depleted Mavericks and Timberwolves teams at the time they played them.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.   The home team is 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.

New York outrebounded Charlotte 52-33 in the first meeting, and it's average of 15.5 second-chance points is one of the best marks in the NBA.  The Knicks also have one of the league's best scoring averages (41.7) from their bench this year.  Robin Lopez did a good job of limiting Al Jefferson to four points on 2-of-10 shooting in the first meeting.  Take the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -5

It's time to buy low on the Houston Rockets tonight as they come into this game with three straight losses straight up and against the spread.  It's also time to sell high on the Boston Celtics as they come in off a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS stretch. I believe the Rockets are simply undervalued here as only 5-point home favorites after these recent results.

But the Rockets have been playing without Dwight Howard for almost half of the season in the early going, and they're 1-3 without him.  They are allowing an average of 57.3 points in the paint in their last three games without him compared to 48.7 in the six games he's played.  The good news is that Howard is expected to return to the lineup tonight, so the defense is going to be much better.

Houston has won eight of its last 10 meetings with Boston, and it is 4-0 in its last four home meetings.  Its last four home wins have come by 14, 24, 12 and 16 points, or by an average of 16.5 points per game.  I believe another double-digit home win for the Rockets is in store tonight.

Boston is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  The Celtics are 47-77 ATS in its last 124 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Houston is 16-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Rockets going 4-0 ATS.  Take the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +5

The Utah Jazz conclude a tough 4-game road trip with a game against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They have opened 0-3 on this trip and they do not want to go back home without a win.  Look for the Jazz to be laying it all on the line tonight against the Hawks as a result.

Utah may be 0-3 on this trip, but it could easily be 2-1.  It only lost 114-118 at Cleveland as 5.5-point dogs and 91-92 at Miami as 3.5-point dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Jazz ran out of gas in playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days in a 93-102 loss at Orlando last time out.  But they've had a day to recoup before this game.

The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season.  They already have four wins by 6 points or less this year.  They were without head coach Mike Budenholzer for family reasons in a 93-106 loss to Boston in their last game on Friday.  They are expected to be without Budenholzer again tonight, and they certainly miss his leadership and X's and O's.

Utah is also going to be motivated to put an end to an 8-game losing streak to Atlanta.  The last three have come by 6, 3 and 2 points, so they've been very close.  In fact, six of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well.

The Jazz are 36-23 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Utah is 20-9 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in over the past two years.  The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. loss.  The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5.5

The Washington Wizards are in the midst of a 3-game losing streak to Atlanta, Boston and Oklahoma City with two of those games coming on the road.  Those are three of the better teams in the NBA.  It's safe to say the Wizards are going to be motivated for a victory when they host the Orlando Magic tonight.

This is a great spot for the Wizards, who have had three full days off since that Oklahoma City loss.  This will also be just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The same cannot be said for the Magic, who will be by far the more tired team heading into this one.

Orlando beat Utah last night, so it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This will also be the 8th game in 12 days for the Magic, which is just absolutely brutal.  I look for them to come out flat in this game and to not be able to match the intensity and energy of the Wizards.

Washington has simply owned Orlando, going 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings.  The Wizards have won each of their seven home meetings with Orlando all by 5 points or more.  They have won those seven meetings by an average of 13.3 points per game.  I fully expect them to win their 8th straight home meeting with the Magic, and for it to come by 6-plus points with ease.  Take the Wizards Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -6.5

The Chicago Bulls have had three full days off in between games since their 111-88 road win at Philadelphia on Monday.  They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor tonight because of all this time off, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

Chicago will also have extra incentive coming into this one after suffering its worst loss of the season in a 105-130 setback at Charlotte on November 3.  The Hornets just couldn't miss, hitting 14 of-23 (60.9%) from 3-point range in that game.  That's obviously not going to happen again here, especially with the Bulls extra motivated to put forth a much better defensive effort this time around.

The Hornets are overvalued here due to winning and covering in each of their last two games.  They beat Minnesota on the road 104-95 as the Timberwolves were without three starters in Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins and Kevin Garnett.  The Timberwolves haven't won at home yet this season, either.  Then they were lucky to beat the Knicks 95-93 at home last time out as Kristaps Porzingis' potential game-winning 3-pointer was ruled to have come after the buzzer.

Chicago is 28-11 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, including 18-6 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more during this same time frame.  The Hornets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.  The Bulls are 15-5 straight up in their last 20 home meetings with the Hornets.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +1

The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season.  They should not be road favorites over the Boston Celtics, who I have pegged as one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.

The Celtics are just 3-4, but they have played a tough schedule with their losses coming against Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (twice).  But the Celctis' three wins have all come by 16 points or more, and they are actually outscoring teams by 3.1 points per game in spite of their losing record.  The Hawks are only outscoring teams by 4.3 points per game with their 8-2 record for comparison's sake.

As you can see, Atlanta has already played 10 games this season, while Boston has only played seven.  That makes the Celtics the fresher team right now as this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days.  Atlanta will actually be playing its 7th game in 11 days.

The Celtics are 28-8 in their last 36 home meetings with the Hawks, including 6-2 in their last eight.  Boston is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Celtics are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 games following a home loss by 10 or more points.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Heat/Jazz OVER 183.5

It's no surprise that the Jazz played in their highest-scoring game of the season last time out with their 114-118 loss at Cleveland.  Rudy Gobert got hurt in that game, and he's their defensive stopper who is averaging 3.4 blocks per game.  X-rays on Gobert's ankle were negative, but there's a good chance he doesn't play in this game, which would force the Jazz to play small ball.

I believe there's value with this low 183.5-point total because the oddsmakers have been forced to set it too low due to Miami going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games overall.  But all previous Miami totals this season have been set at 191 points or more, so this is by far the lowest Miami total of the season.  It's also the second-lowest Utah total this year.

The recent history in this series really makes me like the OVER.  The Heat and Jazz have combined for at least 183 points in each of their last 10 meetings, and 188 or more points in 9 of those.  They have averaged 201.9 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 18 points more than tonight's posted total of 183.5.

Utah is 70-38 to the OVER in its last 108 road games after scoring 110 points or more.  Miami is 17-4 OVER in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-2 OVER in home games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three years.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Miami.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Spurs/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 202

I look for some offensive fireworks tonight between the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers.  These are two of the better offenses in the NBA this season, and I expect each to reach the 100-point mark as this one easily goes over the number.

Portland ranks 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 104.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Blazers play small ball this year with two of the most underrated guards in the NBA in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollumn.  They have scored at least 103 points in each of their last five games coming in.  BUt their defense has given up an average of 114.0 points per game in back-to-back losses to Detroit and Denver.

San Antonio comes in ranked 8th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 102.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Spurs are starting to get comfortable with LaMarcus Aldridge, averaging 110.0 points per game in back-to-back wins over Charlotte and Sacramento.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, all of which took place last season.  The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203, 248, 206 and 206 points in the four meetings.  That's an average of 215.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 13.8 more than tonight's posted total of 202.  I will note that one of those games was in overtime, though, but these teams still had no problem exceeding 202 points when they got together last year, and the Blazers aren't as good defensively this year while the Spurs are better offensively.

Portland is 14-3 to the OVER versus good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 43% or lower over the last three seasons.  San Antonio is 15-4 to the OVER against Northwest Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 23-9 to the OVER as an underdog over the last two years.  The OVER is 5-0 in Blazers last five games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Portland.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies Western Conference No-Brainer on UNDER 200

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors, who are known for playing in low-scoring games when they get together.  There's no question that the Grizzlies are going to be out for revenge following their 119-69 loss to Golden State earlier this season, and I believe their intensity on the defensive end will lead to the UNDER.

The Grizzlies are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA this season.  They like to play slow-it-down ball and run their offense through Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, which leads to low-scoring games on the regular.  Memphis ranks 27th in pace at 96.2 possessions per game, and 28th in offensive efficiency at 94.2 points per 100 possessions. The Grizzlies will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

These teams are very familiar with one another after playing in the Western Conference playoffs last year, and already playing once this season.  The UNDER is 8-2 in all meetings between these teams dating back to last year.  They have combined for less than 200 points in six of their last seven meetings.  They have averaged 187.7 combined points in their last seven meetings, which is 12.3 points less than tonight's posted total of 200, which is also where the value comes in here.

The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Warriors last 26 game s overall.  The UNDER is 47-20-1 in Warriors last 68 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes.  The UNDER is 44-16-1 in Grizzlies last 61 games overall.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Grizzlies last 27 games following an ATS win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Mavs/Pelicans UNDER 211.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 0-6 and in desperate need of a win.  They only way they are going to get one is if they start playing better defense.  These players know that, and I look for their best defensive effort of the season tonight at home against the Dallas Mavericks.

"We have to come out and compete to a level where the game's over and we're drained," All-Star Anthony Davis said. "We're not doing that right now. We've got to find a way to compete for the whole 48 (minutes)."

The Pelicans have been decimated by injuries this season, so their offense hasn't been hitting on all cylinders, either. Anthony Davis has been double-teamed and asked to do too much.  Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday are all shooting less than 42 percent.  These four just aren't getting enough help and there is a lot of pressure on them to deliver.

Dallas is a team full of veterans who don't like to run the floor as much as they used to.  As a result, the Mavericks are averaging just 99.0 points per game on 42.2% shooting.  Deron Williams, Wesley Mathews and Chandler Parsons are all on minutes restrictions right now as they work their way back from injuries.  Dirk Nowitzki also plays fewer and fewer minutes every year.

One thing I really love about this UNDER is the fact that these teams just played three days ago, and then had two days off and will play again tonight.  The Mavs won that game 107-98 for 205 combined points only after a 35-28 fourth quarter.  These teams are now obviously very familiar with one another, and familiarity favors the defenses in this home-and-home situation.  Dallas also won the previous meeting 102-93 for 195 combined points.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Mavs last five games overall.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Mavericks last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Pelicans last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Pelicans last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 199.5

The books have set the bar too high in this matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers.  I'll gladly back the UNDER as these teams don't come close to reaching 200 combined points tonight.

For starters, both teams are dealing with some injuries to their most important offensive players.  The Clippers are expected to be without Chris Paul, who is doubtful with a groin injury.  Zach Randolph is the Grizzlies' go-to guy offensively, but he's questionable with a calf injury.

This has been a very low-scoring series even when players have been healthy for both teams.  The Grizzlies and Clippers have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  That includes 180, 176 and 177 combined points in their last three.  They have averaged 185.2 combined points in those six meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total.

Both teams are going to be playing with more intensity than normal in this game.  That's because the Grizzlies have lost two straight coming in, while the Clippers have also lost two straight.  That added intensity will show up on the defensive end more than anything.

The Grizzlies rank 27th in the NBA in pace at 96.2 possessions per game.  They are a slow-it-down team that cashes a lot of UNDER tickets because they are also 29th in offensive efficiency, averaging 94.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers won't play with as much pace as they normally would with Paul.  Austin Rivers is one of the worst backup point guards in the NBA.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 43-16-1 in Grizzlies last 60 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They opened the season 3-0 and were rolling, but then they hit a tough part of their schedule.  They had to play a stretch of four games in five nights, which didn't go well for them.

After beating the Nuggets 117-93 at home to start that stretch, the Thunder lost 105-110 at Houston the next night.  They also lost 98-103 at home to Toronto before falling 98-104 at Chicago.  They had their chances to win all three games, but instead they have lost three straight coming in.  Now they have had two days off after last playing on Thursday and will come back refreshed and ready to go tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are 3-3 and have played decently, but their three wins have come against the worst three teams they've played in the Blazers (twice) and Kings (without DeMarcus Cousins).  Their three losses have come to Dallas (95-111), the Clippers (96-102) and Detroit (92-100) against the three best teams they've played.

The Thunder won three of four meetings with the Suns last year, including a 112-88 win in their first home contest as similar 7.5-point favorites.  Oklahoma City is 142-103 ATS in tis last 245 games following a loss.  Look for an inspired effort from the Thunder that leads to a double-digit home victory.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Hawks OVER 204

The Washington Wizards are making a concentrated effort to take advantage of their youth and to get up and down the floor.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, averaging 105.2 possessions per game.  That has led to an average of 103.2 points per game, but it has also hampered their defense as they are giving up 106.8 points per contest.

Atlanta doesn't run as much, but it is very efficient on the offensive end, just as it was last season.  The Hawks rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 103.5 points per 100 possessions.  They had their best offensive night yet in a 121-115 win at New Orleans last night.

All four regular season meetings between the Hawks and Wizards saw at least 201 combined points last season, and 207 or more three times.  They averaged 206.3 combined points per game in those four regular season meetings.  But with the Wizards making an effort to push the ball more, I believe there is plenty of value with this over.

The OVER is 8-1 in Wizards last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings, including 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +18

The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They won their first four games by a combined 100 points, so they have set expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to from the betting public and the oddsmakers.

I faded the Warriors with success in their last game Wednesday against the Los Angeles Clippers as they needed a 4th quarter comeback to win 112-108 at home as 7.5-point favorites.  They formed a rivalry with the Clippers in the offseason with all of their trash talk back and forth, and they are now in a prime letdown spot off that big win on National TV.

The Denver Nuggets have shown me enough this season to know that they can stay within this ridiculous 18-point spread.  They have actually played their two best games on the road this year, winning 105-85 at Houston as 10.5-point underdogs and 120-109 at Los Angeles (Lakers) as 3-point dogs.

The Nuggets have played the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings.  They are 3-3 straight up in their last six meetings.  More importantly, they have only lost one of the last 51 meetings by more than 15 points and by more than this 18-point margin.  That's a ridiculous 50-1 system backing Denver pertaining to this spread.  Roll with the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are highly motivated for a victory Friday night when they host the Atlanta Hawks.  They are one of four winless teams this season, but they have already played the defending champion Warriors twice.  Look for the Pelicans to come out with the attitude that they're not going to be denied of their first victory as I fully expect their strongest performance of the season here.

The Pelicans are shooting just 40.9 percent from the field, which isn't going to last.  Antony Davis, who shot 53.5 percent last year and averaged 24.4 points per game, is only shooting 37.9 percent this year.  Eric Gordon (36.7%), Jrue Holiday (37%) & Ryan Anderson (39.7%) are all shooting below 40 percent.  All four of these guys are good shooters, and it's not going to last.  They'll break out of the slump tonight.

Atlanta is overvalued right now due to winning five straight since a season-opening 94-106 home loss to Detroit.  The Hawks have won three times by six points or less during this streak, so they've been fortunate in close games.  They've also played a very easy schedule with the Knicks, Hornets (twice), Heat and Nets.  This will be their first matchup against a Western Conference team this season.

The Pelicans have owned the Hawks in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups.  They've won two games on the road, and in their lone home meeting last year, they won 115-100 as identical 3-point underdogs.

Atlanta is 2-12 ATS off two straight games where it had 10 or more steals over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in home games on Friday nights over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 12.9 points per game.  Look for the Pelicans to feed off of their home crowd tonight as they cheer them on to their first victory.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +15

The Cleveland Cavaliers are just concerned with winning games right now, not by how much they win by.  That's because they are still missing three key players in Iman Shumpert, Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith due to injury.  Asking them to win by 16-plus points to cover the spread against the 76ers tonight is asking too much.

Cleveland needed a 26-17 fourth quarter to put away a bad New York Knicks team 96-86 on Wednesday night.  Four of its first five games have been decided by 10 points or less, including a 107-100 win at Philadelphia as 13-point favorites just four nights ago.  That close game against the 76ers was par for the course in this series.

Indeed, the 76ers have played the Cavaliers extremely tough in recent meetings.  All three meetings last year were decided by 13 points or less.  The Cavs have won three of the last four meetings, but they have come only by 7, 1 and 13 points.  The 76ers won 95-92 in one of them as well.

Philadelphia's 100-107 loss to Cleveland was a very good effort, and it came back with perhaps an even better performance in its last game.  The 76ers only lost 87-91 at Milwaukee as 8.5-point underdogs on Wednesday night.  Rookie T.J. McConnell took advantage of his first start at point guards, scoring seven points with 12 assists and nine rebounds.  Rookie Jahlil Okafor has lived up to his No. 2 pick status, averaging 20.3 points on 54.8 percent shooting.  Nerlens Noel has chipped in 13.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more are 56-24 (70%) ATS since 1996.   Philadelphia is 91-64 ATS in its last 155 games as an underdog of 10 points or more.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics +1

The Boston Celtics are going to be highly-motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight to three very good teams in Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (by 2 on the road).  They are last in the league with just 19.0 points per game in the 1st quarter this year, so expect them to be focused from the start in this one.

The Washington Wizards are in a massive letdown spot and are fortunate to be 3-1 this season.  Their three wins have all come by 5 points or less to Orlando, Milwaukee and San Antonio.  Bradley Beal hit a game-winning 3-pointer right before the buzzer to beat the Spurs on Wednesday, and off such a big win the Wizards will come out flat tonight against a Celtics team that wants it more.

The home team won all three meetings between these teams last year.  The Celtics won 101-93 as 3.5-point dogs in their only home meeting.  They also lost a heartbreaking 133-132 (OT) as 9-point underdogs on the road.  The Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, but their record hasn't reflected that yet, which is why they are undervalued here as home dogs.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Washington is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Take the Celtics Friday.

20* Thunder/Bulls TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City +1

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory after losing each of their last two games by five points apiece to Houston and Toronto.  That's why I'm not concerned that they are playing a 4-in-5 situation here, especially this early in the season as teams don't get tired this early.

The Chicago Bulls are a completely different team now under Fred Hoiberg.  They are no longer concerned with being defensive stoppers, which was evident when they allowed 130 points to the Charlotte Hornets of all teams the other night.  They are just 1-4 ATS on the season and overvalued here as favorites against a superior team in the Thunder.

While the Thunder are a dangerous team when they're at full strength like they are right now, the Bulls are dealing with an injury to their best player in Derrick Rose.  The guy can't even see straight, so he's not himself.  Rose is only averaging 10.2 points per game on 33.9% shooting in nearly 31 minutes per game.  Joakim Noah is only playing 19 minutes per game and averaging 2.0 points because he's a misfit now in Hoiberg's system.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, in November games are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there's value in backing these supposed 'tired' teams this early in the year.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Side & Total PARLAY on Los Angeles +8/UNDER 220.5

Reasons for Los Angeles:

Doc Rivers came out and said that you have to have some luck to win an NBA Championship.  The Golden State Warriors blew his comments way out of proportion and bashed the Clippers in the offseason, saying they couldn't handle their business.  Look for the Clippers players to come to Doc's defense and to take it personally tonight when they travel to face the Warriors.

There's no question that the Warriors are overvalued tonight due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start.  They are now laying too many points against what I believe to be their stiffest challenger in the Western Conference in the Clippers, who are also 4-0 on the season.

The Clippers have stayed within 8 points of the Warriors in six of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread tonight.  Los Angeles is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Because these teams have formed a rivalry with their verbal jabs in the offseason, the defensive intensity in this game is going to be very high.  It's also going to be played on a National TV stage on ESPN, so look for both teams to really lay it all on the line defensively in this one.

Both teams are defending very well this season.  Los Angeles is giving up 99.2 points per game on 39.7% shooting, while Golden State is allowing 94.0 points per game on 38.0% shooting.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Clippers are 9th in defensive efficiency this year.

Each of the last three meetings in this series have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 216, 204 and 186 points, which is an average of 202.0 combined points per game, which is 18.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 220.5.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings have seen 216 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-1-2 in Warriors last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Warriors last 22 games overall.  The Clippers are 12-2 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 70% or better over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Side & Total PARLAY on Los Angeles +8/UNDER 220.5

Reasons for Los Angeles:

Doc Rivers came out and said that you have to have some luck to win an NBA Championship.  The Golden State Warriors blew his comments way out of proportion and bashed the Clippers in the offseason, saying they couldn't handle their business.  Look for the Clippers players to come to Doc's defense and to take it personally tonight when they travel to face the Warriors.

There's no question that the Warriors are overvalued tonight due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start.  They are now laying too many points against what I believe to be their stiffest challenger in the Western Conference in the Clippers, who are also 4-0 on the season.

The Clippers have stayed within 8 points of the Warriors in six of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread tonight.  Los Angeles is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Because these teams have formed a rivalry with their verbal jabs in the offseason, the defensive intensity in this game is going to be very high.  It's also going to be played on a National TV stage on ESPN, so look for both teams to really lay it all on the line defensively in this one.

Both teams are defending very well this season.  Los Angeles is giving up 99.2 points per game on 39.7% shooting, while Golden State is allowing 94.0 points per game on 38.0% shooting.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Clippers are 9th in defensive efficiency this year.

Each of the last three meetings in this series have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 216, 204 and 186 points, which is an average of 202.0 combined points per game, which is 18.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 220.5.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings have seen 216 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-1-2 in Warriors last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Warriors last 22 games overall.  The Clippers are 12-2 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 70% or better over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +4.5

The Charlotte Hornets are hungry for their first taste of victory tonight.  They haven't played poorly, but they've been up against a tough schedule in the early going during their 0-3 start.  They have also been unfortunate in a couple close games.

The Hornets lost 94-104 at Miami before falling 94-97 at Atlanta in its first two games.  It then lost 92-94 at home to Atlanta in its last contest.  Kemba Walker had a chance to force overtime in each of the last two losses late, but missed both shots.

The Hornets have only shot 39.1% and are allowing 44.7% shooting, so the fact that they've been close while shooting the ball that poorly shows a lot about what this team is capable of.  Now they take on a Chicago Bulls team that is vulnerable.

Derrick Rose can't even see, so he's not himself and has had to be more of a facilitator this season.  The Bulls have gone 3-1, but three of their four games were decided by 5 points or less.  Their only blowout win came against arguably the worst team in the NBA in the Brooklyn Nets.

Chicago is 0-9 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Hornets have actually won three of the last five meetings in this series.  Look for an inspired effort from them as they get their first win tonight, though we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Take the Hornets Tuesday.

15* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +9.5

The Golden State Warriors are overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start that has produced a 3-0 ATS record as well. They're already a favorite of the betting public, so they are going to consistently have a few more points tacked onto their lines.  I believe they are laying too many points to the Grizzlies tonight.

While the Warriors are 3-0, they have faced a pretty easy schedule thus far.  They have already played the Pelicans twice, who are the most banged-up team in the NBA right now with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They also played the 0-3 Rockets, who have injuries of their own.

But now they face a motivated Memphis team that is healthy and one of the few teams in the West that matches up well with the Warriors.  Remember, the Grizzlies had a 2-1 series lead over the Warriors in the playoffs last year, but then lost three straight to fall in six games.

The Grizzlies can hang with the Warriors because they play great defense, especially at the all-important guard positions with Mike Conley and Courtney Lee, who match up as well with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson as any backcourt in the NBA.  The Grizzlies held the Warriors to just 97.8 points per game in the playoff series last year, which is absolutely terrific.

Memphis is 101-67 ATS in its last 168 vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or better.  The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Golden State.  Memphis is 144-106 ATS in its last 250 games following a win by 10 points or more.  Roll with the Grizzlies Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5

The Philadelphia 76ers were booed off their home floor in a 71-99 loss to Utah on October 30 as they dropped to 0-2 on the season.  I look for them to come back with a very strong effort today off that embarrassment, especially since they've had two days to correct their mistakes.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are overvalued right now because they have opened the season by going a perfect 3-0 against the spread.  They are a public team anyways because they have Lebron James, and now they are laying way too many points on the road tonight as 13.5-point favorites here.

Philadelphia will get up for the defending Eastern Conference champions.  The 76ers played the Cavaliers extremely tough last year.  They went 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They won 95-92 as 4.5-point home dogs in their lone home meetings, lost by 13 as 17-point road dogs, and lost 87-86 as 17-point road dogs.  They know they can be competitive with this team tonight.

The 76ers are 90-64 ATS in their last 154 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Cavaliers are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 Monday games.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit home loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Philadelphia.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +2.5

These teams just played two nights ago on October 30 with the Hawks coming away with a 97-94 home victory.  This is one of my favorite situations as the Hornets get a shot at revenge just two nights later, this time at home, as an underdogs to boot.

The Hornets are highly motivated for their first win of the season.  They have played two tough road games at Miami and at Atlanta, and now they get to play at home for the first time this year Sunday.  Look for them to take care of business on their home floor.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently.  Indeed, the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hornets won 115-100 and 122-119 over the Hawks in their two meetings at home last year, and that was an Atlanta team that won 60 games and was better than the 2015-16 version is.  The Hornets are a better team this year than last with the players they added in the offseason.

Plays against any team (ATLANTA) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 23-7 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Hornets Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5

This is a rematch from the Kings' 104-111 home loss to the Clippers in the season opener.  Getting a chance to face the Clippers again this quickly is a positive for the Kings, who will be out for revenge tonight.  Los Angeles closed that game on an 11-4 run to pull out the victory, and Sacramento would like to return the favor.

I was impressed with how tough the Kings played the Clippers in that game despite shooting just 43.6% from the field and allowing 52.5% shooting as they still had a chance to win in the end.  Then they came back and dominated the Lakers 132-114 last night and shot 51.5%.  George Karl has this team playing well in the early going.

Sacramento is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 road games off a home win over a division rival.  The Clippers are 28-49 ATS in their last 77 after two consecutive covers as a favorite, only winning by 0.8 points per game in this spot.  Los Angeles is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games after committing 8 or fewer turnovers in its previous game.  The Clippers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Roll with the Kings Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a win after starting the season 0-2.  They've played some pretty tough competition in the early going with games against Toronto and Memphis, two of the better teams from their respective conferences.

But now they take a step down in competition and face the Utah Jazz, who are a fringe playoff contender in the West.  The Pacers will be fresh and ready to go after having yesterday off, while the Jazz will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing the 76ers on the road yesterday.

The Pacers have owned the Jazz in this series, going 6-1 in the last seven meetings with their only loss coming in overtime.  All six wins have come by three points or more as well.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -4

I was on the Denver Nuggets in their opener when they won 105-85 at Houston as 11-point underdogs.  I'm going to ride them again in their second game of the season as I still believe they're way undervalued right now as only 4-point home favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The loss of Ty Lawson is overblown for the Nuggets.  They replaced him with a player who is going to be way more important to the franchise in rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, who played professionally in China last year.  Mudiay had 17 points and nine assists in the opener against the Rockets.

But there's still plenty of talent on this team.  Kenneth Faried is back and had 18 points and nine rebounds in the opener.  Danilo Gallinari is finally healthy and led the way with 23 points and eight boards against the Rockets.  Joffrey Lauvergne is a guy to keep your eye on as he had 11 points and seven boards.  Plus, Will Barton, Jameer Nelson, Darrell Arthur, Gary Harris and Randy Foye provide some really nice depth.

If it's not the Philadelphia 76ers, then the Minnesota Timberwolves are the worst team in the NBA this season.  They won their opener against the Lakers 112-111 but had to erase a double-digit second half deficit to do so.  They were inspired in that game playing for former head coach Flip Saunders, who passed away at 60 years old.  But this team is not very good.

Minnesota has a decent future with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, but for now those are the only two players that you can be excited about.  The Timberwolves start two washed-up veterans in Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince, who combined for six points in the opener.  Ricky Rubio scored a career-high 28 points, but don't expect that to continue as he's never been known as a scorer.  Kevin Martin takes too many bad shots and hijacks the offense.

Denver won three out of four meetings with Minnesota last year with all three wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on one days' rest.  Denver is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Boston Celtics finished last season strong and got even better in the offseason.  It led to one of the best preseason performances in the NBA.  The Celtics went 6-1 in preseason and ranked 2nd in the league in efficiency, outscoring teams by 11.6 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Thunder were better.

The solid play carried over into the regular season opener as the Celtics topped the 76ers 112-95 at home as 12.5-point favorites.  They held Philadelphia to just 40.5% shooting and forced 22 turnovers.  Now they take a step up in competition here, but I look for them to get it done as only 2-point home favorites over the Raptors.

I'm also pretty high on Toronto this year, but the Celtics will likely prove to be the better team in the end.  The Raptors did won 106-99 at home over the Pacers in their opener, but had to erase a double-digit deficit to do so.  They turned the ball over 20 times in that game and the Celtics will feast on their poor ball handling in this one to create plenty of easy scoring opportunities in transition.

Boston won each of its final two meetings with Toronto last year.  The Raptors are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Boston is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 after playing a game as a home favorite.  The Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Boston is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 home games and 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  Take the Celtics Friday.

15* Mavs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +11

The Dallas Mavericks are going to be playing some inspired basketball in this one.  They are not happy with the Los Angeles Clippers, who stole DeAndre Jordan back from them in the offseason.  I look for these Mavericks to take it personally and to come out with a great effort in this one.

I was very impressed with the Mavericks last night in their 111-95 road win at Phoenix.  They had eight players score in double figures in a complete team effort.  The Mavericks also got a chance to rest a little for this game after building a 27-point lead in the third quarter.

Los Angeles was in a dogfight with Sacramento on the road last night and won't be as fresh coming in.  The Clippers needed to go on an 11-4 run to close out the game to win 111-104.  They aren't going to have what it takes to put away the Mavs by double-digits in this one.

The Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.  The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Los Angeles.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a mash unit right now with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They are without two starters in Tyreke Evans and Omer Asik, as well as key role players in Quincy Pondexter and Norris Cole.  The statuses of Jrue Holiday and Dante Cunningham are also in question.

The Pelicans were thoroughly outplayed in their 95-111 road loss to the Golden State Warriors last night, trailing by nearly 20 points for a good portion of the game.  Now they have to play a second of a back-to-back with a short-handed club, which won't be easy.

Everyone is writing off the Portland Trail Blazers, but I believe they are going to be better than expected this year.  They ranked 14th in the preseason in efficiency, outscoring teams by 1.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Pelicans ranked just 25th in efficiency, getting outscored by 3.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Blazers still have one of the best players in the NBA in Damian Lillard running the show.  They added some established veterans in Gerald Henderson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis.  Plus C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard are both ready for bigger roles this year.  These players are going to be motivated from the start to prove their doubters wrong.

"Coming into this season, we're going to be underdogs and people may disrespect us, people may look at us like we can't compete with them," Lillard told the team's official website. "We've got to take that to heart. We've got to be offended by that and we've got to play like it."

The Blazers have won five straight meetings with the Pelicans, and they are 8-0 in their last eight home meetings with their last loss coming in 2010.  The Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +11

The Denver Nuggets are getting no love from oddsmakers in the opener as double-digit road underdogs to the Houston Rockets.  I believe the Nuggets are going to be better than expected under first-year head coach Mike Malone, who was one of the hottest candidates on the market.

Denver may come away with the best player in the draft when it's all said and done in Emmanuel Mudiay, who takes over at the point for the departed Ty Lawson.  This is a team that returns some very good veterans in Kenneth Faried, a healthy Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  They are out to prove their doubters wrong this season, starting tonight.

"I love challenges," said Mudiay, who bypassed college to spend last year playing pro ball in China. "My team gives me a lot of confidence and has a lot of trust in me."

"I believe we have a chance to make the playoffs this year," Faried said. "I 100 percent believe that - 110 percent. I don't care what anybody has to say about it."

Houston is not at full strength right now and shouldn't be this heavy of a favorite as a result.  It is going to be without key big men Dwight Howard and Donatas Motiejunas, who are both listed as doubtful.  Look for the Nuggets to clean up on the boards and to get some easy second-chance points in this one that will help keep them in the game for four quarters.

The Nuggets went 4-3 in the preseason while the Rockets went just 3-5.  The Nuggets actually finished 12th in the NBA in preseason in efficiency, outscoring teams by 3.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets are just 18th in efficiency, getting outscored by 0.7 points per 100 posssessions.  Houston is 53-79 ATS in its last 132 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -1

The Utah Jazz were quietly one of the best teams in the NBA down the stretch last year.  They had the sixth-best winning percentage (65.5) in the NBA after the All-Star Break, which has them primed to be a dark horse in the Western Conference this year.

Gordon Heyward and Derrick Favors are entering their primes.  This team really took off when Rudy Gobert was inserted into the starting linuep after trading Enes Kanter.  Gobert averaged 11.1 points, 13.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks after the All-Star Break, and his presence makes this one of the best defenses in the NBA.

The Pistons are coming off an impressive 106-94 victory last night on the road over the Hawks.  But this is not a very deep team and all five of their starters played at least 34 minutes last night.  I'll gladly fade them in this second of a back-to-back situation to open the season.

The Jazz are 17-2 int heir last 19 meetings with the Pistons, including 8-1 in Detroit.  The Pistons are 59-91 ATS in their last 150 home games when playing the second of a back-to-back.  The Jazz are 9-1 ATS int their last 10 trips to Detroit.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors 2015 NBA Season Opener on New Orleans +10

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to want revenge on the Golden State Warriors from getting swept in the playoffs last year.  I look for them to give the Warriors all they want in the season opener and to easily cover this double-digit spread, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Warriors will receive their championship rings tonight.  While Steve Kerr will be present, he won't be coaching the team due to his back.  Assistant coach Luke Walton will be taking his place on the sidelines.  I don't expect the team to respond to Walton like they would to Kerr early in the season.  The ceremony will be a distraction to these players, too.

Alvin Gentry, who was the Warriors' assistant coach last year, is now the head coach of the Pelicans.  If there's anybody who would know how to slow down the Warriors, it's certainly Gentry.  He will have the Pelicans prepared to take down the defending champs in this one.

New Orleans is certainly a team on the rise.  It has arguably the best player in the NBA in Anthony Davis, who averaged 31.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and shot 54.0 percent against the Warriors in the playoffs last year.  Eric Gordon was second in the NBA in 3-point shooting last year at 44.8 percent.  Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday are healthy to open the season, and they added veterans Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to help bolster the roster.

The Pelicans are 28-14 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Golden State.  Each of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 11 points or less, including four by 10 or fewer.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Cavaliers Game 6 No-Brainer on UNDER 194

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors have played in an extremely low-scoring series to this point.  The UNDER is 3-1-1 through the first five games and would be 4-0-1 if not for overtime.  Yet, the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for it in Game 6 tonight.

These teams have combined for 196, 174, 187, 185 and 195 points at the end of regulation in the first five games, respectively.  That's an average of 187.4 combined points per game, which roughly 7 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.  That's giving us seven points of value on the UNDER tonight.

Yes, these teams combined for 195 points in Game 5, but the Cavaliers inexplicably played small ball and didn't give Timofey Mozgov enough minutes despite the huge game that he had in Game 4.  They cannot go small ball against the Warriors, who excel at it.  Look for head coach David Blatt to get back to playing the kind of big ball that helped them to a 2-1 series lead.

That will help lead to an even lower-scoring Game 6.  Plus, this game will be played in Cleveland, and the Cavaliers will control the tempo when playing at home.  They want to slow this thing down to a snail's pace with Lebron James eating up the shotclock with the ball in his hands to shorten the game.

Cleveland is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Warriors last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 38-17-1 in Cavaliers last 56 games when playing on one days' rest.  Golden State is 9-1 UNDER after three consecutive non-conference games this season.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors have played in a very low-scoring series up to this point.  All four games would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime, and Game 2 even went under with overtime.  The oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for Game 5, and we'll take advantage.

These teams have combined for 196, 174, 187 and 185 points at the end of regulation in the first four games, respectively.  That's an average of 185.5 combined points per game, which is exactly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.  So, we are getting 10 points of value on the UNDER here.

I just don't foresee Game 5 being high-scoring.  The Cavaliers have been woeful offensively, shooting 41.5%, 32.2%, 46.1% and 33.0% in their four games.  But they've become a defensive juggernaut with their new lineup due to injuries, limiting the Warriors to 44.3%, 39.8%, 40.0% and 46.8% in the four games.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Sunday games are 74-27 (73.3%) over the last five seasons.  Golden State is 14-4 UNDER in all playoff games this season.  The UNDER is 69-27-2 in Cavaliers last 98 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Warriors last six Sunday games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Sunday.

20* Warriors/Cavaliers Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -2.5

Down 2-1 heading into Game 4, the Golden State Warriors know that they need a victory or this series is likely over.  I fully expect them to get it.  The first three games could have gone either way as all three were within five points at the end of regulation.

Draymond Green said it best yesterday in a press conference.  His team needs to play harder and with a sense of urgency, and I believe you will see that from the Warriors in Game 4 after seemingly losing the battle to get every loose ball in Game 3.  They will come to play tonight.

The Cavaliers being up 2-1 is certainly a surprise to most.  Obviously, they are going to show up again in Game 4, but I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency as much as they have the past two games, and as much as the Warriors will be tonight.

The Warriors were down 2-1 against the Grizzlies in the conference semifinals.  It was the same situation as this as they lost Game 2 and Game 3.  They went on to win the next three games in blowout fashion.  The Grizzlies are a similar physical team to the Cavaliers, and the Warriors made the proper adjustments in that series, and I believe they will in this series as well.

Golden State is a perfect 10-0 ATS after two straight games where they were called for 25 or more fouls over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Thursday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -1.5

The Golden State Warriors have not played up to their potential in the first two games of this series.  They may have started to believe the hype that this series was over due to the injuries to the Cavaliers coming into Game 2.

That was a big reason I was on Cleveland last game, but I'm going with the Warriors in Game 3.  They will be the ones who come out and play with a sense of urgency tonight that they haven't played with yet in this series.  Meanwhile, there's no way the Cavs can match the effort they played with on Sunday.

Stephen Curry and the rest of the Warriors aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 2.  They shot just 39.8% from the field with Curry going 5-for-23.  Steve Kerr will make the proper adjustments, and I look for the Warriors to get back to playing their up-tempo ways that have made them the best offensive team in the league all season.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Warriors are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games following a S.U. loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Bet the Warriors in Game 3 Tuesday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +8

The Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 represent my favorite play of the entire NBA postseason up to this point.  This is a must-win game for them as they cannot afford to go back to Cleveland down 0-2 if they want to win this series.

There is some serious value in getting the Cavs as 8-point underdogs here.  They were only 6-point dogs in Game 1 and forced overtime.  Now, we are getting an extra two points with them only because Kyrie Irving is out for the series after getting injured in Game 1.

Well, the Cavaliers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  They have heard the noise through the media that this series is over because Irving is out.  You can bet that Lebron James and company will be using that noise as motivation in Game 2 here tonight.

Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team  (75% or better) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers are getting little respect heading into this series.  They are +200 underdogs to win the series, and 6-point underdogs in Game 1.  I believe the value is clearly with the Cavaliers in this one.

While I agree with the Warriors being favored in Game 1 and for the series, I just feel that this number is too big.  The Warriors have been the best team in the NBA this season, but they don't have a single player on their 15-man roster that has ever been to the NBA Finals.  Nerves will be an issue for them in Game 1.

The Cavaliers have a tremendous leader in Lebron James who will be going to his 5th straight NBA Finals.  His confidence and temperament will rub off on his teammates in Game 1. 

While the Cavs did get to go through an easy Eastern Conference to get here, you cannot ignore the fact that they are 46-11 since mid-January.  They have won seven straight playoff games over the Bulls and Hawks, which is no small feat, either.

Cleveland is 24-10 ATS off five straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less.  It has morphed into an elite defensive team in these playoffs.  Holding the Hawks to less than 42% shooting for four straight games is mighty impressive.  The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 1 Thursday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 5 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216.5

The UNDER was 3-0 in the first three meetings in this series.  These teams combined for 216, 197 and 195 points in the first three games.  After a huge output in Game 4 where they combined for 243 points, I believe the value is back with the UNDER in Game 5 with this 216.5-point total.

The Rockets had by far their best offensive output of the season in Game 4.  They shot 56.6% from the field and scored 128 points.  Golden State coach Steve Kerr was obviously furious about his team's effort defensively.  Look for the Warriors to be show much more tenacity on that end of the floor at home in Game 5.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog are 31-9 (77.5%) since 1996.

Golden State is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 home playoff games.  The Warriors are 27-9 UNDER after playing a game as a road favorite this season.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Warriors last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Warriors last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings, and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 4 No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5

The Atlanta Hawks showed some fight in Game 3 and took the Cleveland Cavaliers to overtime.  They aren't going to give in in Game 4, and I like their chances of staying within 7.5 points of the Cavs in this elimination game.

Kevin Love is obviously out, but Kyrie Irving missed last game and is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury.  The Cavs would be wise to let him rest another game considering they are up 3-0 in this series.

What really could hurt the Cavaliers is that Lebron James is as sore as he's been all season.  "I'm feeling all right," he said, forcing a smile that showed he wasn't being entirely truthful. "I've been better, but I've been worse. I think I've been worse."

Atlanta is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points this season.  It is coming back to win by an average of 16.2 points per game in this spot.  The Hawks are also 15-3 ATS when playing with double revenge against an opponent this season.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -4.5

This series is over.  The Golden State Warriors made a statement with a 35-point win in Game 3.  The Rockets also made a statement that they were going to pack it in.  With no motivation now, I look for the Rockets to get blown out again in Game 4.

The Warriors showed that they were vulnerable in losing back-to-back games to Memphis.  However, they have responded in a big way since.  They have now won six straight playoff games with four of those victories coming by 13 points or more.  They are proving that they are the best team in the NBA and that their regular season success was no joke.

Golden State is 24-8 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Golden State is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Bet the Warriors Monday.

20* Hawks/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Atlanta +9.5

The Atlanta Hawks are showing solid value as big road underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  Everyone is pretty much looking forward to a Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals, but I guarantee the Hawks have different ideas even after losing the first two games of this series.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

Atlanta is 14-3 ATS when playing with double revenge, two straight losses vs. opponent this season.  While everyone is counting them out, I believe the Hawks have other plans tonight.  Bet Atlanta in Game 3 Sunday.

20* Warriors/Rockets Game 3 No-Brainer on Golden State PK

The Golden State Warriors smell blood in the water.  They are fortunate to be up 2-0 in this series after winning the first two games at home by a combined five points.  They certainly feel like there's no pressure on them now and can come out and play freely tonight.

The Rockets are absolutely devastated.  They had their chances to win the first two games, and now they know that this series is all but over and it's just not their time.  I look for a lackluster effort from them tonight after blowing the first two games down the stretch.

Plays on road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Atlanta Hawks are essentially in a must-win situation tonight.  They cannot afford to fall down 0-2 heading back to Cleveland.  I look for them to get the job done at home tonight and to even this series at one game apiece.

The Cavaliers got an unworldly performance out of J.R. Smith in Game 1 that they're not going to get again.  He scored a career playoff high 28 points in Game 1, connecting on eight 3-pointers.  He single-handedly won the opener for them.

Atlanta really did not play well in Game 1, which was a rarity for the Hawks at home.  They still had their chances in an 88-97 loss, but Smith's surge proved to be too much.  The Hawks are 40-8 at home this season, so I just cannot foresee them losing back-to-back games on their home floor.

The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 220

I'm backing the UNDER tonight in Game 2 between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors.  The oddsmakers have once again set the number too high, failing to drop it from the 220-point total they set in Game 1.

These teams combined for 216 points in Game 1, and I expect Game 2 to be even more lower scoring.  Both teams even shot well at 46.5% for Houston and 46.7% for Golden State, yet they still couldn't eclipse the 220-point total.  James Harden and Stephen Curry couldn't miss in Game 1, too.

I believe there is some value with the UNDER in this game.  These teams have played five times this season and have averaged 215 combined points per game, giving us roughly five points of value here.  The UNDER is now 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this series.

Golden State is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 home playoff games.  The Warriors are 13-3 UNDER vs. poor free throw shooting teams that make 71% or worse over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Rockets last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Warriors last 6 home games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 games overall. Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Thursday.

20* Cavs/Hawks Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta PK

The Atlanta Hawks have won three out of four meetings with the Cleveland Cavaliers this season with all three victories coming by eight points or more.  They earned the #1 seed in the East, yet they are getting treated like they aren't the best team in the East already in Game 1 as they are only a pick 'em at home.

I'll gladly take advantage and back the Hawks, who have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 40-7 at home this year where they are outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with Cleveland.

Cleveland's team defense will really be tested in this game.  They could focus in on Derrick Rose last series, but they can't focus in on any one Atlanta player.  Defensively, the Hawks actually have a stopper in DeMarre Carroll who can guard Lebron James as well as about anyone.  They can focus their defense on James and Kyrie Irving.

Cleveland is 4-14 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 8-1 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points.   The Hawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

15* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -10

The Houston Rockets have had only one day of rest following their Game 7 win over the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.  They haven't had ample time to prepare for Golden State, and they will be at a disadvantage because of it.

Even though this is the Western Conference Finals, I believe this is a letdown spot for the Rockets.  They came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers last series, and it's only human nature for them to take a little extra time to celebrate and to not come out with their best effort in Game 1.

Golden State, meanwhile, has had three days off since putting away Memphis 108-95 on the road in Game 6.  The Warriors have been fast starters in their two series.  They beat the Pelicans 106-99 in Game 1 of their first series in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They also beat Memphis 101-86 at home in Game 1 last series.

Golden State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 27 or more free throws/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days rest.  These three trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Golden State.  Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Rockets Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2

After giving away Game 6, many have counted out the Los Angeles Clippers.  However, the oddsmakers believe they'll bounce back and come up clutch in Game 7 by listing them as the favorite, and I couldn't agree more.

Doc Rivers is one of the best head coaches in the league.  He will get his players to respond in a big way today, just as he did in the first round when the Clippers trailed the Spurs 3-2 and had to win Game 6 on the road to extend the series.  They obviously went on to win Game 7 at home as well.

Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-14 (76.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.  Los Angeles is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Wizards UNDER 198

After going over the total in three of four games to open this series, the Hawks and Wizards played in a very low scoring Game 5 that saw just 163 combined points.  I look for Game 6 to follow suit in this elimination game that will be played with high defensive intensity.

The longer a series goes on, the lower-scoring it usually gets because teams are so familiar with one another.  Yes, John Wall is back to lead the Wizards' offense, but he is only a shell of himself while playing with a fractured hand.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 59-30 (66.3%) since 1996.

Atlanta is 12-1 to the UNDER when attempting to close out a playoff series since 1996.  The Hawks are 17-5 to the UNDER when leading in a playoff series since 1996.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight Friday games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.

20* Cavs/Bulls Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -2

Pau Gasol is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury tonight in this do-or-die Game 6.  I believe his presence on the floor will push the Bulls over the top and have them forcing a Game 7 against the Cavaliers.

Chicago has really missed Gasol's offense the past three games as they've shot 37.8%, 36.0% and 39.5%, respectively.  They still managed to go 1-2 with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points even with those poor shooting percentages.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS as underdogs this season.  The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. 

The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.  Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 5 No-Brainer on Atlanta -7.5

The Atlanta Hawks are back in control of this series after winning Game 4 106-101 to regain home-court advantage.  I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in Game 5, similar to their 106-90 victory in their last home game in Game 2.

The Hawks have won two out of three games since John Wall went down with injury.  The only exception was a 101-103 road loss in Game 3 where Paul Pierce made a lucky, banked-in jumper at the buzzer.

Wall was the one player that the Wizards could not afford to lose.  They have managed to be mostly competitive without him aside from that Game 2 loss at Atlanta by 16 points.  They will miss his leadership and playmaking ability on the road in Game 5.  In Game 2, the spread was 9.5, but it's only 7.5 in Game 5, so I believe there is some value here.

Washington is 1-9 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or more two straight games this season.  The Wizards are 6-24-2 ATS in their last 32 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 27-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the Hawks in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Cavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls missed their opportunity to win Game 4 and go up 3-1 in this series.  They shot just 36.0% from the floor and lost when Lebron James hit a game-winning jumper at the buzzer, 86-84.  I look for them to bounce back in Game 5 tonight.

I have no doubt that Chicago is the better team in this series.  Cleveland is without Kevin Love, and both James and Kyrie Irving are far from 100%.  Sure, the Bulls have injury issues of their own with Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson, but they are a deeper team that can overcome those injuries.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-27 (69%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 13-5 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  The Bulls are 32-17 ATS off a home loss this season.  The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.  Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference semifinal games.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

Facing a 3-1 deficit if they lose tonight, I look for the Atlanta Hawks to come out with an inspired effort in Game 4.  They showed grit in bouncing back from a Game 1 loss with a 16-point win in Game 2, and I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in this must-win situation in Game 4 as well.

Washington was able to win Game 3 despite playing without John Wall, but it won't be so fortunate in Game 4.  Wall is the one player that it cannot afford to lose.  Paul Pierce's lucky, banked jump shot at the buzzer was the only thing that saved them in Game 3.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 97-57 (63%) ATS since 1996.

The Wizards are 6-23-2 ATS in their last 31 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 1-8 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  These two trends combine for a 21-3 system backing Atlanta.  Take the Hawks in Game 4.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockets/Clippers UNDER 217.5

The Clippers and Rockets have gone OVER the total in all three games to open this series.  They've combined for 218, 224 and 223 points.  As a result, the oddsmakers have been forced to set the highest total they have yet this series in Game 4.

That has provided us with a ton of line value to swoop in and back the UNDER tonight.  This 217.5-point total is 5.5 points more than the 212-point Game 1 total.  That fact alone allows you to see that there is value with this UNDER in Game 4.

The defensive intensity in this game will be more than it has been at any other point in the series.  The Rockets are looking at this game like a must-win, while the Clippers realize they can grab a hold of the series with a win to go up 3-1.  I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively as a result.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 4 or more consecutive overs are 66-29 (69.5%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 41-9 (82%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Hawks/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3.5

I look for the Atlanta Hawks to regain control of this series with a win and cover in Game 3 against the Washington Wizards.  They will take advantage of the injury to John Wall, who the Wizards simply could not afford to lose if they wanted any chance of winning this series.

Atlanta shot 37.8% in Game 1, yet still had a chance to win in a 98-104 loss.  It only shot 43.5% in Game 2 and still cruised to a 106-90 victory.  I believe it's best shooting performance is awaiting in Game 3 as it shoots 46.3% as a team on the season.

As stated before, the Wizards cannot afford to be without Wall.  Ramon Sessions had a good game in his place in Game 2, scoring 21 points.  But Sessions is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and Jeff Teague is going to continue to have his way with him in Game 3.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Wizards are 5-23-2 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 off an ATS loss.  The Wizards are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as small home favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  I really like their chances of winning this series considering the Cavs are without Kevin Love.  They are now the better team, and they'll prove that with a win tonight to get back ahead in this series.

The Cavs shot 12-of-26 from 3-point range in Game 2, which isn't going to happen again.  "I know our fans are waiting, the city's just waiting for us to come back there and it should be another exciting game," Derrick Rose said. "Hopefully we play some defense."

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  Chicago is 12-4 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season.

This play also fits one of my favorite zig-zag theory systems.  It tells us to play on home favorites who are coming off a loss by 10 points or more.  These home favorites need to have a winning percentage between .600 and .750 and need to be playing against a team with a winning percentage better than .500.  This system was on a 55-30 ATS run coming into the 2015 playoffs.  Bet the Bulls in Game 3 Friday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets came out flat in Game 1.  They thought they could just show up and win against a Clippers team that was playing without its best player in Chris Paul.  The Rockets won't make the same mistake again.  Look for them to come out with their most inspired effort of the season in Game 2.

Paul is expected to sit again as he's listed as doubtful.  It's a smart move by Doc Rivers, who has to be satisfied with getting home-court advantage after stealing Game 1.  The Clippers aren't about to play as well as they did without Paul again.

This play fits into one of my favorite playoff systems.  It's part of the zig-zag theory where you play on the team that lost the last game.  This system tells us to play on a home favorite that lost the last game by 10 points or more with a winning percentage from .600 to .750 against a team with better than a .500 record.  This system is 55-30-2 (64.7%) ATS in its last 87 tries.

Los Angeles is 4-12 ATS after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games this season.  Houston 12-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite this year.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -6

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs up to this point.  They won home-court advantage by stealing Game 1, and now I expect them to let up a little, while Atlanta puts the foot on the gas in Game 2 in essentially a must-win game.

The Hawks uncharacteristically missed a ton of wide open shots that they normally make in Game 1, yet they still almost won.  They shot just 37.8% from the field and lost 98-104.  As good as this team is at shooting the ball, I expect a much sharper performance in Game 2, which will lead to a win by 7-plus points to cover this spread.

Washington has some serious injury issues right now.  Bradley Beal severely sprained his ankle in Game 1, and while he's expected to play through the pain in Game 2, he clearly won't be effective.  John Wall also suffered a hand injury from a hard fall to the floor.  If this was the regular season, both players would likely be out.  Give them credit for gutting it out, but the Wizards simply aren't the same team without Wall and Beal at 100%.

Washington is 2-12 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 ATS when revenging two straight losses where their opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  They are coming back to win 103.8 to 95.4 on average in this spot.  Bet the Hawks in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Rockets Game 1 No-Brainer on UNDER 212

With Chris Paul likely out for the Clippers, I look for them to be a little lost offensively.  Their offense only goes as he goes.  That's a big reason why I'm taking the UNDER in this Game 1 Monday.

Another reason is how the season series has played out.  The UNDER is 4-0 in four meetings this season, and 6-1 in the last seven meetings dating back to last year.

The Clippers and Rockets have combined for 198, 215, 205 and 187 points in their four meetings this season.  That's an average of 201.3 points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 212.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Monday.

15* Wizards/Hawks Game 1 Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +5

The Washington Wizards showed me enough in their first series to know that they are real contenders in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  I look for them to give the Hawks a run for their money tonight and to likely steal Game 1.

The Wizards' four-game sweep of the Toronto Raptors was rarely even close as all four games they won by 7 or more points.  The Atlanta Hawks were much more vulnerable in their series, needing six games to get by eighth-seeded Brooklyn with three of their wins going down to the wire.

Washington is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road playoff games.  Atlanta is 4-18 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.  Washington is 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Spurs/Clippers Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 204

Games in the playoffs tend to get lower scoring as the series goes on.  The intensity picks up, and teams become more familiar with one another.  With everything on the line in a Game 7, the defensive intensity is magnified even more, and the rim becomes smaller for shooters.

These teams combined for 198 points in Game 6.  That was the second-lowest scoring game of the series as they combined for 199 in Game 1.  Game 7 will be the lowest-scoring game yet.

The UNDER is 10-4 in Clippers last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Clippers last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.   Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Hawks/Nets Game 6 Line Mistake on Atlanta -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks have toyed around with the Brooklyn Nets for long enough.  This series ends tonight and I'll back the Hawks laying a small number on the road.

The Hawks swept the Nets during the regular season, but this has been a much feistier series.  The Nets are getting some respect from the books because they have hung around, but that all changes tonight.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games are 93-56 (62.4%) ATS since 1996.

The Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.  That's the only trend that backs the Hawks, but tonight they show out like they are champs in the East.  It's time to separate themselves from the pack.  Bet the Hawks Friday.