15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They have lost to the Pacers in both meetings this season and both were away from home.  That includes their 128-119 loss to the Pacers in the in-season tournament that knocked them out in the semifinals.  It's safe to say they want revenge, and we will get their best effort tonight as they get them at home for the first time this season.

The Pacers were in a letdown spot after losing to the Lakers in the finals of the in-season tournament, but unfortunately the Detroit Pistons haven't won a game in over a month and couldn't take advantage.  The Bucks will take advantage, and I think this is where we finally see the letdown for the Pacers, especially after just beating the Bucks a week ago.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat them in this game as they were in the in-season tournament.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8

I love the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They have a chance at quick revenge here after losing 114-116 to the Heat on Monday night.  Now they travel to Miami to face the Heat here just two days later on Wednesday.  I like them to stay within this inflated number at the very least and possibly pull off the upset.

The Heat are in no position to be laying 8 points to the Hornets right now.  They are without Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Haywood Highsmith.  They are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.  Adebayo is arguably their most important player, at least even with Jimmy Butler.

The Hornets have been playing some very competitive basketball with four of their last five games decided by 6 points or fewer.  They rarely get blown out by the Heat, either.  The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  All four were decided by 6 points or less with two outright upsets by the Hornets.

Miami is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Heat are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  Miami is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games when playing against a bad team (25-40% winning percentage).  They Heat are the classic team that plays to the level of their competition, and they won't be motivated at all to beat the Hornets for a 2nd time in 3 days.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Kings/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 11th in pace, 12th in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating.  They are fully healthy right now and as long as De'Aaron Fox is on the court, they are going to be an OVER team.  They have scored at least 112 points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

The Los Angels Clippers are showing their offensive potential when fully healthy, which is the case right now.  They have scored at least 111 points in five of their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 132-127 win over Portland last night.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Clippers and Kings.  They combined for 248 points in their lone meeting this season, and 255 and 351 points in their final two meetings last season.  The 351 was an OT game that still saw 306 points at the end of regulation.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Celtics OVER 223.5

Both the Cavaliers and Celtics are more OVER teams than people realize, especially when healthy.  The Celtics are loaded on offense with Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis and White.  They have all five guys healthy right now for basically the first time this season.  They rank 7th in offensive rating and are probably the most efficient offensive team in the NBA when healthy.

The Celtics just showed what they are capable of with a 133-123 victory over the Knicks last time out with a total of just 221.  This total has been set too low at 223.5 against the Cavaliers tonight as well.  Cleveland has more shooting this season with the additions of Strus and Niang, and they could get both Evan Mobley and Caris LeVert back tonight, who sat out last night but are upgraded to questionable today.  Those two combine for nearly 31 points per game.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Cleveland and Boston.  We have seen 227 or more combined points in all four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11.5

The Chicago Bulls have quietly gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall since losing Zach LaVine to injury.  It's no surprise nobody wants to trade for this guy.  The Bulls are playing better team basketball now and it is paying off.

The Bulls upset the Bucks 120-113 as 9.5-point dogs, upset the Pelicans 124-118 as 3-point dogs, crushed the Hornets 111-100 as 5-point favorites and rolled to a 121-112 victory at San Antonio as 2-point favorites.  Now the Bulls are catching too many points against the Bucks again tonight.

The Bucks will have questionable motivation here after being on the big stage and losing in the semifinals to the Pacers in the in-season tournament in their last game.  They won't be nearly as motivated here in their first game back from the tournament, which will help the Bulls keep this one close.

The Bulls are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks which have all six been decided by 13 points or fewer, so they tend to take the Bucks to the wire every time.  Billy Donovan is 42-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as a head coach.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Hawks OVER 241

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-2-1 in Atlanta home games this season where they are scoring 125.3 points per game and allowing 126.1 points per game with an average of 251.4 combined points per game.

The Hawks and 76ers just combined for 239 points last game in a game Trae Young sat out with an illness.  But Young returns tonight and he is the key to them being an OVER team.  Now they take on a Denver Nuggets team that recently got Jamal Murray back, and he is the key to them being an OVER team when he's on the court.

Mike Malone is 67-38 OVER off a home loss as the coach of Denver.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic ML -120

I like the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They want revenge from a 111-121 loss in Cleveland on November 6th just five days ago.  Now the Magic get the Cavaliers at home this time around.  

The Magic are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS at home this season.  They have beaten the Lakers by 19, the Bucks by 15, the Nuggets by 5 and the Celtics by 17 at home this season.  So it's not like they are beating up on a bunch of bad teams.

The Cavaliers will be missing two key players tonight in Evan Mobley (16.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) and Caris LeVert (14.9 PPG).  They should not be getting this much respect from the books without these two.  The Magic have won 9 consecutive home games and they make it 10 in a row tonight.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

20* Pacers/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 241.5

It's no surprise that both semifinal games of the In-Season Tournament went UNDER the total.  These teams are actually playing defense in these win-or-go-home games.  It also helps that there's $500,000 on the line to each player on the winning team.

More defense will be played tonight in the championship game between the Pacers and Lakers with both teams desperate to win this tournament and collect that money.  I've been backing Pacers overs all season, but now is the time to take a Pacers under.

The Lakers rank 7th in defensive rating and 22nd in offensive rating this season.  They are the type of team that will slow it down to play at the pace they are comfortable with and not let Indiana dictate what they do.  The Lakers have held the Pelicans to 89 points, the Suns to 103 and the Rockets to 97 in their last three games coming in, all three going well UNDER the total.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Indiana) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60-75) are 51-13 (79.7%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Kings/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -120

The Phoenix Suns will be without three starters in Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen tonight.  Devin Booker is good, but he's not good enough to beat the Sacramento Kings on his own.  The Kings should be much bigger favorites tonight given those injuries for the Suns.

The Kings are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 road games.  Sacramento is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games following a home loss.  Phoenix is 1-10 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Thunder OVER 235.5

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Thunder and Warriors.  They have combined for at least 237 points in all seven meetings.  They have averaged 254.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is nearly 19 points more than this 235.5-point total.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Nets OVER 240.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are scoring 117.2 points per game on 48.7% shooting and allowing 125.4 points per game on 50.4% shooting this season.

Now they face a red hot Nets team that is scoring 123.0 points per game in winning six of their last seven games overall.  The Wizards have scored at least 120 points in five of their last six games, and they have allowed 130 or more points in five of their last six as well.

Washington is 8-1 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Washington is 8-1 OVER following an ATS win this season.  The Wizards are 8-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/76ers OVER 241

The Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers are both dead nuts OVER teams.  The Hawks rank 3rd in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating.  The 76ers rank 2nd in offensive rating and are scoring 120.6 points per game this season.  The Hawks are scoring 122.6 points per game and allowing 122.3 points per game.

The 76ers won 126-116 for 242 combined points in their first meeting with the Hawks this season.  And neither team shot the lights out as the Hawks shot 44.9% and the 76ers 48.9%.  So we have some room for improvement here on the shooting front in the rematch for both teams.

Philadelphia is a perfect 7-0 OVER with a total of 230 or higher this season.  Philadelphia is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 Friday night home games.  The 76ers are 16-4 OVER in their last 20 games vs. terrible defensive teams allowing 48% shooting or higher.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pelicans/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 229.5

Teams are trying a lot harder on defense in these tournament games, especially these winner-take-all games.  We saw that last time out with the Lakers as they beat the Suns 106-103 for just 209 combined points.  I think we see it even more now that we are down to the semifinals.

The semifinals will be playing on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, NV.  These players aren't familiar with this court and the shooting sight lines will be different for them.  It will take some time to adjust, and I think that will help us cash this UNDER ticket as well.

The Lakers rank 9th in defensive rating and just 24th in offensive rating.  They have been much better defensively since getting healthy, and the same can be said for the Pelicans.  The Lakers have held their last two opponents to 103 and 97 points.  They have allowed 107 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  The Pelicans have allowed 114 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games overall.

New Orleans is 30-15 UNDER in its last 45 games with a total of 230 or higher.  The Pelicans are 23-11 UNDER in their last 34 games when playing on two days' rest.  New Orleans is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 road games off two or more consecutive overs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Nuggets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles PK

The Denver Nuggets are just kind of going through the motions right now after winning the NBA title last year.  With that title comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to.  The Nuggets are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

The Los Angeles Clippers have gotten healthy and played up to their potential here in recent weeks with their loaded roster.  They are 6-3 SU in their last nine games overall with wins over the Warriors, Kings and Mavericks in their last three victories.

Now the Clippers have their sights set on revenge after losing each of their first two meetings this season with the Nuggets.  They only lost by 3 in Denver with a fully healthy Nuggets team.  But they were upset as 10.5-point home favorites when they took the short-handed Nuggets lightly.  They won't be taking them lightly tonight wanting revenge.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Brooklyn Nets +4

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 10-9 SU & 14-4-1 ATS in their 19 games this season.  They are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with the two losses coming by a combined 3 points.

One of those losses came 145-147 in Atlanta on November 22nd, so you can bet they will be out for revenge against the Hawks tonight.  The Hawks won't have Jalen Johnson (14.1 PPG, 42.5% 3-pointers) this time around as he is out with injury.

While the Nets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA, the Hawks are one of the most overrated.  They have gone 9-10 SU & 5-14 ATS in their 19 games this season and play zero defense.  The Hawks are 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have really struggled since losing Johnson with their last three losses all coming by double-digits and their lone win coming by 2 points over the lowly Spurs.

Atlanta is 1-8 ATS after playing a road game this season.  Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or higher this season.  The Hawks are 1-8 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or better this season.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers -4

The Cleveland Cavaliers are finally healthy with the Big 4 of Mitchell, Garland, Allen and Mobley and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are laying too short of a number here at home against the Orlando Magic tonight.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Magic.  They just had their 9-game winning streak snapped with a 101-129 road loss at Brooklyn last time out.  I always like fading teams the game after having a significant winning streak snapped because there always tends to be a hangover effect.  They aren't as motivated any more because they don't have a winning streak to protect.  But they are still getting a ton of respect due to winning nine of their last 10.

Cleveland owns Orlando, going 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings with both home wins coming by double-digits.  Cleveland is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Orlando with all four wins coming by 6 points or more and three by double-digits.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

20* Suns/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +2

The Phoenix Suns want revenge from two narrow losses to the Lakers by a combined 8 points already this season.  They lost 95-100 as 6.5-point road dogs on October 26th and 122-119 as 2-point home favorites on November 10th.  There will get their revenge tonight with an outright victory.

The difference is that the Suns did not have Devin Booker for either of those first two meetings due to injury.  Booker means everything to this team averaging 27.9 points per game, 8.4 assists per game and 5.8 boards per game.  When he and KD (31.0 PPG) have been on the court at the same time, this team has been dangerous.

The Lakers are 0-8 ATS following an ATS win this season.  They are actually getting outscored by 16.4 points per game in this spot this season.  Bet the Suns Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on OVER 238

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 16-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating.

The Boston Celtics are more of an OVER team this season.  They rank 9th in offensive rating and are scoring 116.7 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  They hung 155 points on the Pacers in their lone meeting with them this season in a 155-104 win that saw 259 combined points.  I think this rematch will be a lot closer, but it will also sail OVER this 238-point total.

Indiana games have seen at least 237 combined points in 16 of their 18 games this season.  Both Kristaps Porzingis and Tyrese Haliburton sat out their last game for their respective teams.  I think that was caution more than anything, and both will likely play tonight.  But it won't matter either way I like the OVER.  The Pacers won 144-129 at Miami without Haliburton and the Celtics won 125-119 at home against the 76ers without Porzingis.  

Indiana is 13-0 OVER when revenging a loss this season.  The Pacers are 20-2 OVER in their last 22 games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  Indiana is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. teams that win more than 70% of their games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +2

The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson.  It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.

Indeed, the Blazers have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs and won outright at Cleveland 103-95 as 12-point dogs.

The Blazers aren't just covering they are destroying these spreads.  They have covered their last four games by a combined 62 points.  Now they are somehow underdogs to the Utah Jazz, who are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.

It's no wonder the Jazz are struggling going 2-6 SU in their last eight games overall.  It's also no wonder their offense is broken as they have scored 105 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 90-101 loss at Minnesota which followed up a 91-105 loss at Memphis.

Utah is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers want revenge from their 132-142 loss at Miami on Thursday.  They don't have to wait long to get their revenge as they play again here just two days later Saturday.  The difference is the Heat will be missing their best defender and arguably their most important player in Bam Adebayo for the rematch.

While the Pacers will be locked in wanting revenge, the Heat will relax a little not being overly excited to try and beat this team again.  I think things will come even easier for the Pacers than they did in that first meeting without Adebayo.  The Pacers rank 1st in offensive rating this season and 1st in adjusted tempo.  Miami doesn't want to try to defend these guys again.

Miami is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 41-11 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Heat OVER 240

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 15-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 127.9 points per game and allowing 125.8 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.

The Miami Heat combined for 255 points with Milwaukee and then 274 points with Indiana in their last two home games.  We only need 240-plus combined points to cash this OVER in the rematch, which is 34 points less than what they just combined for on Thursday.  We'll get 240-plus tonight, especially with Miami's best defender in Bam Adebayo out for the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Detroit Pistons not winning a single game in November has made some headlines lately.  Their 17-game losing streak dates back to October 30th.  With this media attention comes an opportunity for us to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They will be desperate to end this skid tonight.

The Pistons were competitive in their 112-118 loss at New York last time out as 14.5-point underdogs, and they have been more competitive at home than on the road.  Asking the Cavaliers to win this game by double-digits on the road to beat us is asking too much.

The Cavaliers are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 33 to Miami at home, lost by 6 to the Lakers at home, beat the Raptors by just 3 at home and lost outright to the Blazers by 8 as 12-point home favorites.  They certainly aren't playing well enough to warrant being this big of a favorite on the road tonight.

Detroit is as healthy as they have been all season with both Ausar Thompson and Bojan Bogdanovic upgraded to probable tonight.  The time is now to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 120-114 loss at Golden State on Thursday.  Now they get the Warriors at home in the rematch so they don't have to wait long to get their revenge.

The Clippers were at a big disadvantage in that game at Golden State because they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout 131-117 road win at Sacramento the night before.  They didn't have much left in the tank and were still competitive.  Now, after having Friday off, I expect a much better effort from them in the rematch.

The Warriors won't be nearly as motivated to beat this team again.  Plus, the Warriors are missing two key players in Chris Paul and Gary Payton II, and Andrew Wiggins is questionable.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are fully healthy for this one and primed for a big effort.

The Warriors are 20-36 ATS in their last 56 road games.  Golden State is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Enough said.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pelicans OVER 232.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy and are humming on offense right now.  They have scored at least 115 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  They rank 9th in pace this season and like to get up and down.

Now they face another team that likes to get up and down in the San Antonio Spurs.  The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  They are a dead nuts OVER team as a result.  They just combined for 292 points with the Hawks last night in a 147-145 loss.  Now they will be on tired legs and won't be playing much defense tonight.

The OVER is 13-5 in Spurs' 18 games this season.  The OVER is 15-4 in Spurs last 19 games vs. division opponents.  San Antonio is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games vs. a marginal winning team (51-60%).  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5

The Orlando Magic have been the most profitable team to back in the NBA this season at 13-5 SU & 15-3 ATS.  But with that fast start comes lofty expectations that are going to be tough to live up to in the immediate future.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Magic tonight.

If the Magic were going to have a letdown, it would be tonight.  That's because they just beat this same Washington Wizards team 139-120 as 9.5-point home favorites on Wednesday.  How motivated are they going to be to beat this same team again?  The answer is not very.

The Wizards will be the more motivated team here for revenge.  The Magic aren't going to shoot as well as they did in that first meeting.  They shot 60.7% from the floor and an unsustainable 17-of-27 (63%) from 3-point range.

The Wizards have been more competitive on the road than they have been at home this season.  In their six road games prior to losing to the Magic, they went 5-1 ATS upsetting Detroit by 19 as 3-point road dogs, only losing by 3 at Milwaukee as 14-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Charlotte as 4-point dogs, only losing by 4 at Toronto as 8-point dogs, only losing by 8 at Brooklyn as 7-point dogs and upsetting Charlotte by 16 as 2.5-point dogs.  So the 19-point loss at Orlando was the aberration, and it was only due to the Magic shooting an unsustainable percentage.  

Plays on any team (Washington) - off a blowout loss by 15 points or more against an opponent that is off two straight games where both teams scored 115 or more are 55-18 (75.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Timberwolves UNDER 222

This matchup between Utah and Minnesota tonight will be played without the best offensive player for both teams.  Utah leading scorer Lauri Markkanen (23.7 PPG) and Minnesota leading scorer Anthony Edwards (26.2 PPG) are both expected to miss this game.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is even when Edwards was healthy.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating and play at a slower tempo.  They rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating even with Edwards.  Having the twin towers of Gobert and Towns plus a defensive-minded PG in Mike Conley Jr. make them a dead nuts UNDER team.

The Timberwolves have remarkably held four of their last five opponents to 103 points or fewer, which is a great feat in today's NBA.  Now they face a Jazz team that has really been struggling offensively without Markkanen, scoring 105 points or fewer in four of their last five games.

The Jazz are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall.  Minnesota beat Utah 123-95 for just 218 combined points in their first meeting this season back on November 4th.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Heat OVER 237.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 14-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 127.6 points per game and allowing 124.7 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.

The Miami Heat just played another dead nuts over team in the Milwaukee Bucks last time out and the result was a 131-124 shootout loss and 255 combined points.  It will be more of the same against the Indiana Pacers tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +12

The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson.  It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.

Indeed, the Blazers have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, and won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs.  Now they are once again catching too many points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

The Cavaliers are coming off a 23-point win over the Hawks which has them overvalued.  They lost by 33 at home to Miami, were upset by 6 at home by the Lakers and only beat the Raptors by 3 at home in their previous three games.  It's not like they are playing well enough right now to warrant being 12-point favorites here.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

20* Clippers/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -125

I had the Kings on the Money Line last night and was fortunate to cash that ticket.  The Kings came back from 24 points down to the Warriors to win 124-123.  They put everything they had into that comeback, and now they won't have anything left in the tank for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  

It is also a letdown spot for the Kings after finally beating their hated rivals in the Warriors after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them in seven games last season, and losing the first two meetings this season to the Warriors.  They wanted that win more than anything, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Clippers tonight.

The Clippers will be extra motivated to bounce back from a bad loss to the Nuggets who didn't have Nikola Jokic.  They simply thought they could show up and win that game.  The Clippers had been playing well previously going 4-1 SU in their previous five games.  They will be focused for this one, and they are healthy for pretty much the first time this season right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.

Plays against home underdogs (Sacramento) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 45-20 (69.2%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites on the money line (LA Clippers) - off an upset loss a a home favorite against an opponent that is off a home win where they scored 110 points or more are 61-20 (75.3%, +31.4 Units) since 1996.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are rolling right now going 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 3 points or more.  Devin Booker is playing at an MVP level, and there's a good chance they get Kevin Durant back from injury tonight.

The Suns come in on two days' rest and will be the fresher team, which is the biggest reason for this play.  The Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 103-115 loss in Brooklyn last night.  The Raptors will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days in their 5th different city.  They will have nothing left in the tank for the Suns tonight.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -119

This is the ultimate revenge spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Warriors in seven games last season.  They are already 0-2 against the Warriors this season, though their 1-point loss at Golden State on November 1st came without De'Aaron Fox.  It's safe to say the Kings are going to be max motivated for revenge at home tonight, and I expect them to get the job done.

The Warriors are 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall.  They do get Draymond Green back, but I don't think it's going to matter.  The Kings will simply want this one more.  The Warriors are 19-36 ATS in their last 55 road games dating back to last season.  Golden State is 2-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets are the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.  They have gone 8-3 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Their only three losses came on the road by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors.  They have beaten the Nuggets twice, the Lakers and the Kings twice during this run.

The Rockets play team basketball without the superstar names.  That's what makes them such an undervalued commodity.  The Mavericks have the big names in Doncic and Irving, but not much help outside of them.  And Doncic has a banged up thumb right now that he is expected to play through tonight.

The Mavericks are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming over the lowly Wizards and the Lakers by 3 who were tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They lost by 21 at the Pelicans, by 7 at the Bucks, by 16 at home against the Kings and by 19 at the Clippers.  They aren't playing well at all right now and don't warrant being 4.5-point favorites here.

Dallas is 24-40 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder want revenge from a 120-95 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the play-in round of the playoffs last year that ended their season.  This is their first shot at revenge this season, and I expect them to make the most of it tonight.

The Thunder are fully healthy right now and are a dangerous team when that's the case.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 4 points to the Philadelphia 76ers, who are one of the best teams in the NBA this season.  Five of their six wins came by double-digits while the other was a 7-point win at Golden State.

The spot really favors the Thunder not only because of the revenge factor, but also because they are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight.  The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in all games this season and have been covering machines over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +14

The Boston Celtics are getting too much respect from the books tonight as massive 14-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls.  That's especially the case considering the Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight with starting PG Jrue Holiday questionable as well.

The Bulls are undervalued right now after a 5-13 SU & 5-12-1 ATS start this season and this is a good 'buy low' spot on them.  They always seem to play the Celtics tough, and there's no doubt they will be up for this game tonight.

Indeed, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Celtics with five outright wins as underdogs.  Three of their four losses straight up have come by 8 points or less.  They will stay within this inflated number again and keep their series dominance going in this head-to-head matchup.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pelicans/Jazz UNDER 231

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Pelicans and Jazz will be meeting in Utah for the 2nd time in 3 days.  The Jazz won 105-100 for just 205 combined points in that first meeting with a total set of 227.  Now the total is set at 231 and the books are making a mistake not listing this total much lower tonight.

While the Pelicans are without CJ McCollum, the Jazz could be without both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen again tonight after they both sat out their last game.  Those are their two best offensive weapons, and even if they are without one it will hamper them a lot offensively.

New Orleans is 46-25 UNDER in its last 71 games vs. teams with a losing record, including 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. terrible teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (New Orleans) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51-60%) playing a losing team are 41-14 (74.5%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Pacers OVER 241

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 14-1 OVER in their 15 games this season.  They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.5 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.

The Blazers are not an over team, but the Pacers force teams to play at their pace, especially at home.  Plus the Blazers just got both Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson back from injury and were missing those two key guards for a big chunk of this season.  They now have the guards to get up and down with the Pacers.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Lakers/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 231.5

The Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers are two of the rare teams in the NBA today that still prefer to run offense through their centers in Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis.  As a result, they both play at slower tempos than average and I think this is a great UNDER bet in a game involving two of the best centers in the game.  

These are also two of the better defensive teams in the NBA with the Lakers ranking 9th and the 76ers 13th in defensive rating.  The Lakers are just 24th in offensive rating and dealing with a bunch of injuries.  LeBron James is questionable, Gabe Vincent is out, Cam Reddish is questionable and Rui Hachimura is out.

Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Philadelphia) - off a road win, a good team (60-75%) playing a team with a winning record are 75-35 (68.2%) since 1996.  The Lakers and 76ers have combined for 227 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 218.5

Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  The Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating.  The Grizzlies always get after it defensively, but with all their injuries right now points have been very hard to come by for them.

The Grizzlies were held to 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last two games.  I think the Timberwolves will hold them below 100 today, which will aid us in cashing this UNDER 218.5 ticket.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last five meetings with 220 or fewer combined points in five of those six, and 217 or fewer in three of the last four.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Minnesota Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating.  With all the injuries the Grizzlies are dealing with right now, points have been very hard to come by for them.  The Grizzlies were held to 100 points by the Celtics, 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last three games to fall to 3-12 SU & 5-10 ATS this season.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 11-4 SU & 8-5-2 ATS this season and have been one of the more undervalued teams in the NBA.  But they are coming off a bad home loss to the Kings, which will have them refocused and not taking the Grizzlies lightly today.

Memphis is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games as an underdog.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +13

Giannis, Brook Lopez and Damian Lillard combined for 101 points last game and the Bucks still were life and death with one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Washington Wizards in a 131-128 win as 13.5-point home favorites.  They lost Kris Middleton to an Achilles injury in that game and he won't play today.  They will be life and death with the Blazers again today because they just don't have much help outside of those Big 3.

The Blazers are coming off a 121-105 upset win over the Jazz as 3-point home underdogs.  They are getting healthier and playing better.  Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.  I expect the Blazers to give a big effort today in this sleepy afternoon game for the Bucks, who won't have their usual home-court advantage due to this early start time.

Plays against favorites (Milwaukee) - after two straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets -3.5

I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory coming off three consecutive losses.  They are also motivated because one of those losses came 122-115 at Miami on November 14th.

The Nets also have a big rest advantage over the Heat tonight.  The Nets come in on two days' rest and will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days.  Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-100 loss at New York last night.  This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for the Heat, which is about as tough as it gets in the NBA.  Eight of those nine games were on the road so there has been a ton of travel involved.

Jimmy Butler played 36 minutes, Bam Adebaoy 34, Josh Richardson 34 and Kyle Lowry 33 last night.  The Heat are already short-handed without Tyler Herro and likely without Duncan Robinson again tonight.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see them sit Butler and/or Adebayo tonight given the tough rest spot.

Brooklyn is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when revenging a road loss.  Miami is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Golden State Warriors are an OVER team when Draymond Green is out of the lineup.  They miss his defense.  They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall without Green and tonight will be the 5th game of his 5-game suspension.  They have gone for 237, 253, 237 and 238 combined points in their last four games.

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy.  They are at least respectable on offense, but they are terrible on defense either way.  The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency.

The last two meetings between the Spurs and Warriors have gone OVER the total with 245 and 257 combined points.  Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Golden State) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a losing team are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Pacers OVER 247.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 13-1 OVER in their 14 games this season.  They are scoring 128.3 points per game and allowing 126.4 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.

The Pistons don't mind getting up and down either as they rank 11th in pace.  They play little defense ranking 21st in defensive efficiency.  This one has the makings of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +3

The Houston Rockets are the most underrated team in the NBA right now.  They are 7-3 SU & a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The three losses all went to the wire and were all on the road losing by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors.  They are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.

The Rockets are back home where they just crushed Memphis by 20.  They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets just aren't the same without Jamal Murray and have struggled without him in recent seasons.  The Nuggets are 3-4 SU but 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall without Murray with the three wins all coming by 4 points or fewer.

Denver is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.  Houston is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.  I fully expect Houston to win this game outright.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* Heat/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -5.5

I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off following a road loss at Minnesota which was their 5th consecutive road game.  They needed the rest, and they will far back here on Black Friday with a blowout win over the Miami Heat.

The Heat are getting a lot of respect now after winning nine of their last 10 against a very soft schedule.  They are coming off a blowout win at Cleveland, but the Cavaliers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the 76ers in OT on the road the night before.

The Heat have two key starters questionable to play tonight in Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson and may be short-handed.  They already lack depth as it is without Tyler Herro.  Meanwhile, the Knicks are fully healthy.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or less last game.  Miami is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Phoenix Suns -7.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now with all their injuries.  They are 3-11 SU & 5-9 ATS this season.  They are without Morant, Smart, Tillman, Kennard, Adams, Clarke, LaRavia and could be without Bane tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are getting healthier and forming some chemistry right now.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, and I expect them to handle the short-handed Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -4.5

The Houston Rockets are one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA right now.  They are 6-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers by 6, the Lakers by 1 and the Warriors by 5.

Now the Rockets are back home where they are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  They host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-10 SU & 5-8 ATS this season.  The Grizzlies have the worst injury situation in the entire NBA which is the biggest reason for their struggles.

Memphis is 1-18 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Pacers OVER 237.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-1 OVER in their 13 games this season scoring 128.1 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency.  Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enough.

The Toronto Raptors are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 240 points with Milwaukee, 255 points with Detroit and 233 points with Orlando.  They will be forced to play up-tempo with the Pacers controlling the pace playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 235

Two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA square off tonight.  The Bucks rank 5th in offensive rating while the Celtics rank 6th.  The Bucks also rank 6th in pace but are a poor defensive team ranking 23rd in that category.

Shootouts have been the norm between the Bucks and Celtics in recent meetings and both are even more OVER teams this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 239, 256 and 257 combined points in those three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +8

The Utah Jazz are playing well going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their two losses came to the Suns by 3 points apiece with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant both healthy.  Now they will give LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are run for their money tonight.

The Lakers are getting too much respect now after winning five of their last six games coming in.  But three of the five were decided by 6 points or less, and it has mostly come against a very soft schedule.  They lost by 15 at home to the Kings for their lone loss.  Their only wins by margin came against arguably the two worst teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies and Blazers, and they also only beat the Blazers by 6.  They beat the Rockets by 1 last time out.

The Jazz should be the fresher team here too playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  The Jazz are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games as underdogs.  Utah is 32-13 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51-60% of their games on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Hawks OVER 250

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-1 OVER in their 12 games this season scoring 125.7 points per game and allowing 123.7 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enought.

Now the Pacers play another dead nuts OVER team in the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks rank 3rd in pace, 6th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency.  The OVER is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall.

The OVER is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between the Pacers and Hawks.  They combined for 273 points in their most recent meeting and had no problem topping the 249.5-point total.  They won't have a problem topping this 250-point total, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat ML -120

The Miami Heat will be out for revenge from a 102-97 loss at Chicago on Saturday just two days ago.  They led 22-1 in the first quarter and couldn't hang on as they got complacent and the Bulls got hot.  They won't make the same mistake again here in the rematch.

The Heat are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall while the Bulls are 1-3 SU in their last four games.  Plays on road favorites (Miami) - revenging a same-season loss while also off an upset loss as a favorite are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  I love the spot for Miami tonight.  Bet the Heat on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -9

The Milwaukee Bucks are starting to form chemistry now with Damian Lillard in the fold and they are playing up to their potential.  The Bucks have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone ATS loss coming by a half-point in a 9-point home win over the Bulls as 9.5-point favorites.  They beat the Mavs by 7 as 2-point home favorites on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They also beat the Raptors by 16 and the Hornets by 31 on the road.

Now they hit the road again and face arguably the worst team in the entire NBA in the Washington Wizards.  The Wizards are 2-10 this season.  The Wizards rank 25th in defensive efficiency and are allowing 122.9 points per game and 49.6% shooting this season.  They also rank just 24th in offensive efficiency and 27th in net rating.

The Bucks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Wizards with two wins coming by double-digits.  Milwaukee is 39-20 ATS in its last 59 games as a road favorite.  The Wizards just lost by 13 to the Mavericks and by 21 to the Knicks at home in their last two games to fall to 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season.  It will be more of the same here against the Bucks with another double-digit home loss.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* Rockets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 29th in the NBA in pace and 4th in defensive efficiency.  The Lakers rank 16th in pace and 22nd in offensive efficiency.  This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight with some poor offense on both sides.

Five of Houston's last six games have seen 219 or fewer combined points.  The lone exception was their 128-94 win over the Lakers that saw 222 combined points.  But familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I expect this rematch to be more low-scoring, and we only need it to be 2 points less to cash this UNDER 220.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Mavericks OVER 244.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season, scoring 123.5 points per game and allowing 119.7 points per game.  They rank 4th in pace, 2nd in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.

Now they play a Sacramento Kings team that is a dead nuts OVER team when De'Aaron Fox is healthy.  They have gone for 252, 235 and 249 combined points in their last three games since Fox returned from injury.  They have scored 132, 125 and 129 points in those three games and will hang another big number on the Mavericks tonight.

Dallas is 8-0 OVER when the total is 230 or higher this season.  The Mavericks are 12-1 OVER in their last 13 games after playing three consecutive road games.  They just combined for 257 points with the Bucks last night and have combined for at least 241 points with their opponents in six consecutive games now while going OVER in all six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings ML -120

The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting D'Aaron Fox back from injury.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four games since he returned.  Now they are in a great spot tonight with yesterday off and playing a Mavericks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Mavericks put everything into their 125-132 road loss at Milwaukee last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.  The Mavericks are a terrible defensive team ranking 25th in defensive efficiency this season.  They won't be giving much effort on that end considering how tired they are.

Sacramento is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games.  The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  Sacramento is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 116-plus points per game.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4

The Indiana Pacers undervalued to start the season opening 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS.  They score 126.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency.  Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game.  They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers.

This is a great spot for the Pacers as they are rested and ready to go after having the last four days off.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days and are a tired team right now, especially since they are short-handed due to injury.  The Magic lost by 20 at Brooklyn and then upset the Bulls twice in three days, but the Bulls are terrible and the Magic are getting respect now for those two wins when they shouldn't be.

Orlando is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 games following two consecutive wins by 6 points or fewer.  The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 November home games.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Magic.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Pacers OVER 234

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-1 OVER this season.  They score 126.5 points per game and allow 123.4 points per game this season.  They rank 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.

Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game.  They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are rolling right now with seven consecutive victories.  They play a struggling Chicago Bulls team that is in the midst of a ton of trade rumors right now.  The Bulls have lost three consecutive games, including back-to-back losses to Orlando at home.

The spot really favors the Heat tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 97-103 loss to the Magic last night.  This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Bulls, which is one of the toughest spots a team can be in in the NBA.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6.5

The New York Knicks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last two seasons.  That has been the case again this season as they are 7-5 SU & 7-3-2 ATS in their 12 games.  They have a great bench and guys like Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle just don't get the respect they deserve.

The Charlotte Hornets are a dumpster fire again this season and battling injuries.  No starter other than La'Melo Ball scored more than 11 points last night in a 130-99 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.  Now I expect them to get blown out by the Knicks, who are coming off a 120-99 road win at Washington last night.

The Knicks just beat the Hornets 129-107 as 10.5-point home favorites on Sunday.  They will cover this short 6.5-point spread in the rematch as well with the Hornets showing nothing worth betting on of late.

The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road favorite.  The Knicks are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Blazers UNDER 223.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are without their top three guards in Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson and Malcolm Brogdon.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team as a result, and they were even with these guys healthy with the way they are playing.

The Blazers rank 24th in the NBA in pace, dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency.  They are putting in the effort defensively to try and stay competitive, but they just don't get anything easy on the offensive end.  They have been held to 95 points by the Cavaliers and 99 points by the Jazz in their last two games coming in.

The Lakers rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in pace and are 21st in offensive efficiency.  They should bring a big defensive effort after getting beat by the Kings last time out.  I think this game will be played at a snail's pace, the defense will be there, and both teams will struggle to score.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams just played less than a week ago on November 12th with the Lakers beating the Blazers 116-110 for 226 combined points and a total of 219.5.  The Blazers shot 50% and the Lakers shot 48.8%, and both are unsustainable in the rematch.  Now the total has been raised up to 223.5 for the rematch, so there's value with the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -8.5

The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury as he means everything to this team.  In the two games back they crushed Cleveland 132-120 as 1-point home underdogs and upset the Lakers 125-110 as 1-point road dogs.  Now they take on the hapless San Antonio Spurs tonight, and another double-digit blowout in their favor is going to be the result.

The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their last five losses coming by an average of 22.0 points per game.  Injuries have set them back as they are without both Devin Vassell and Tre Jones.  Plus, they just don't play any defense and simply don't have much talent aside from Wembenyana.

The Kings are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs with their last three wins all coming by double-digits.  San Antonio is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games following four or more consecutive ATS losses.  Sacramento is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  Bet the Kings Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5

The Golden State Warriors are going to be without their two most important players tonight.  Stephen Curry (30.7 PPG) is what keeps the Warriors a contender in the West.  Well, they are going to be without him tonight.  They will also be without Draymond Green, who is their best defender and important in screen and rolls with Curry and as a passer.  They are one of the worst teams in the NBA without these two.

I think the Warriors are getting too much respect here because they were able to hang with the Timberwolves in a 3-point loss without these two in their last game.  That was clearly a letdown spot for the Timberwolves after beating the Warriors two days earlier, and knowing they didn't have to face Curry in the rematch.  Then Green and Thompson got tossed right away and Minnesota simply took their foot off the gas.

The Oklahoma City Thunder won't make the same mistake tonight.  They are in a great spot here as they are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They also want revenge from a 141-139 home loss to the Warriors as 6-point dogs on November 3rd just two weeks ago.  Well, they didn't have their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for that game, while the Warriors were fully healthy and they still only lost by 2 on a buzzer-beater by the Warriors.

This game will also be on National TV so we'll get a fully-focused effort from the Thunder.  Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKC) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* Kings/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML +108

The Sacramento Kings just got De'Aaron Fox back from injury last time out.  He put his stamp on the game right away with 28 points in a 132-120 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday.  Now the Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are primed for a big effort against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.

This is a tough spot for the Lakers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the lowly Memphis Grizzlies last night.  The Lakers will also be playing their 7th game in 12 days and this is a big step up in class for them after beating the Grizzlies and Blazers at home in their last two games.

The Kings simply own the Lakers going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings including outright wins in their last two trips to Los Angeles.  It will be more of the same tonight given the rest advantage for Sacramento in a game I expect them to win outright.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks PK

This is a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-120 win at Detroit against the short-handed Pistons last night.  Four of five starters played at least 34 minutes in that game to put away the Pistons late.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Knicks tonight.

The Knicks had yesterday off following their loss in Boston on Monday.  They will be the fresher team for this one, and I believe they are the better team this season.  The Knicks have had the Hawks' number in recent meetings going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the least three meetings with road wins by 6 and 21 points as well as a home win by 24.  They clearly have the Hawks figured out.

Atlanta is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games following a win by 6 points or less.  New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or fewer.  The Knicks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 8-2 this season and showing what they are capable of when Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are on the court at the same time.  They have changed their offensive philosophy and are getting off shots quick so defenses don't have time to adjust, and Doncic is in the best shape of his life to accommodate it.

The Mavericks are scoring 124.1 points per game this season.  They rank 9th in pace and 2nd in offensive efficiency, so it's clearly working.  They just beat the Clippers 144-126 at home which was followed up by a 136-124 win at New Orleans.  They get to play the Pelicans again tonight, and it's going to be more of the same given the current state of their opponent.

The Pelicans are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NBA right now.  They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Larry Nance Jr.  They could also be without Herbert Jones, who is questionable.  There is too much on the shoulders of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, and these two aren't capable of beating the Mavericks on their own.

The Pelicans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by 12 points or more and the five losses coming by an average of 14.8 points per game.  New Orleans is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 120-plus points pre game.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/76ers OVER 239

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-1 to the OVER this season while scoring 126.0 points per game and allowing 123.1 points per game.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.

The 76ers are having no problem scoring without James Harden as they are off to a 8-1 start this season and scoring 120.7 points per game.  They are in line for one of their biggest outputs of the season, similar to their 146-128 home win over Washington a few games back that saw 174 combined points.  Washington is a poor man's Indiana playing up-tempo and no defense.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 263, 262, 290 and 255 combined points.  The books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +9

The New York Knicks have quietly gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 9 points all season, and they aren't about to start now.  

The books have set this number too high because the Knicks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they blew out the Hornets 129-107 at 12:00 PM EST Sunday and now don't play until night on Monday. They also had three days off prior to that game and rested their starters in the 4th quarter of that blowout Sunday.  They will still be fresh for this game Monday, and they want revenge from a 104-108 home loss to the Celtics in their first meeting this season.

The Celtics are getting too much respect here off a pair of blowout home wins over the Nets and Raptors.  This is a big step up in class for them tonight.  They never blow out the Knicks, going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with New York.  The Knicks have them figured out, and they will keep this one close again tonight if not win outright.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  The Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more consecutive wins.  Asking the Celtics to beat the Knicks by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3

The Phoenix Suns are going to be fade material until they get healthy.  Bradley Beal is working his way back from injury, Devin Booker remains out and Eric Gordon is questionable after missing the last game.  There's just not enough depth on this team to be missing these guys, or not having them at 100%.

The Suns are 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset losses to the Spurs (twice) and Lakers all at home.  Their only two wins during this stretch came against the lowly Bulls and Pistons.  Now they take a big step up in class here against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that I believe is a contender in the West when healthy.

Well, the Thunder are healthy right now beating the Hawks and Cavaliers at home before a disappointing loss at Sacramento.  They'll come back highly motivated for a victory after that loss to the Kings, and they should not be underdogs here given the current state of the Suns.

The Thunder are 42-22 ATS in their last 64 games after scoring 105 points or less.  Oklahoma City is 37-23 ATS in its last 60 games as an underdog.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those five games.  They have wins by 9, 18, 25, 34 and 3 points as these games have rarely even been close to the spread.

Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight and won't have a letdown considering the defending champion Denver Nuggets are coming to town.  The Nuggets have been fortunate to play a home-heavy schedule to this point with six of their first nine games at home.  They are 1-2 ATS on the road with a 4-point win over lowly Memphis and a 21-point loss at Minnesota included.

The Nuggets aren't at full strength right now as Jamal Murray is sidelined with a hamstring injury.  They have been dominant when Murray and Jokic have been on the court at the same time, but they have been vulnerable the past several seasons when Murray has been out.  They are vulnerable tonight against the red-hot Rockets.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/76ers OVER 237.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-1 to the OVER this season while scoring 126.0 points per game and allowing 121.6 points per game.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.

The 76ers are having no problem scoring without James Harden as they are off to a 7-1 start this season and scoring 118.6 points per game.  They are in line for one of their biggest outputs of the season, similar to their 146-128 home win over Washington a few games back that saw 174 combined points.  Washington is a poor man's Indiana playing up-tempo and no defense.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 262, 290 and 255 combined points.  The books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +8.5

The Toronto Raptors have turned it around and been very impressive in their last four games.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the 76ers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The 76ers have just one loss this season and it came by a single point.

Toronto beat Milwaukee 130-111 as 4.5-point home dogs.  The Raptors went on the road and topped San Antonio 123-116 as 3.5-point favorites.  They then upset the Dallas Mavericks 127-116 as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off, plus they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.

Meanwhile, Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Nets 121-107 at home last night.  The starters had to play most the game in that one as it wasn't decided until late in the 4th quarter.  It will also be the 5th game in 8 days for the Celtics, who shouldn't be laying this big of a number given the Raptors' rest advantage.

Four of the last five meetings between Boston and Toronto have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder just got their star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup and promptly pulled off two consecutive upset victories over the Hawks 126-117 and the Cavaliers 128-120.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and a dangerous team when that's the case.

The Sacramento Kings are still without their star in De'Aaron Fox, and they have been dreadful without him.  The Kings are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games without Fox.  That includes consecutive blowout losses to the Rockets by 25 and 18 points, as well as a narrow 3-point win over the Blazers as 8-point favorites last time out.  This is now a big step up in class here for the Kings against the Thunder tonight.  It won't go well for the Kings here.  

Plays against home teams were the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - after losing by 42 or more points total against the spread in their last five games in the first half of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in three of those four games.  They have wins by 9, 18, 25 and 34 points as these games aren't even coming close to the spreads.

Now the Rockets will stay hot tonight against the injury-ravaged New Orleans Pelicans.  The Pelicans are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 18, 18 and 21 points.  They are without CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy III.  Both Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are questionable tonight as well.

New Orleans is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 6-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game.  The Pelicans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games when playing against a marginal winning (51-60%) team.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Houston) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points in their last five games in the first half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on any team (Houston) - vs. division opponents, off three or more consecutive upset wins as underdogs are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +12

The Brooklyn Nets are 4-4 SU but 7-0-1 ATS this season.  They haven't lost a single game by more than 10 points and three of their four losses came by 5 points or fewer.  They have been competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against the Celtics tonight.

The Nets will be motivated to revenge that 10-point defeat as it came at the hands of the Celtics on November 4th less than a week ago.  Keep in mind the Nets were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in that game, while the Celtics were coming in on two days' rest so they had a huge advantage.  They don't have that same advantage tonight.

The Celtics aren't playing well right now going 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset on the road by both the Timberwolves and 76ers plus pushing in that 10-point win over the Nets.  The Celtics are back home for the first time since November 1st and there are distractions they will be dealing with back home after a 3-game road trip.  Bet the Nets Friday.

15* Hawks/Magic NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 231.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency.  They have gone for 237 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall.

The Orlando Magic were a good defensive team with Wendell Carter Jr. healthy.  But he has missed the last couple games and is out for three weeks now.  They are going to have to go more small ball without their starting center, and it's going to hurt them defensively.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Atlanta and Orlando with 251, 259 and 233 combined points.  They have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five meetings as well.  This total has been set too low tonight folks.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Pacers OVER 241

Both the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are dead nut OVER teams.  The Pacers are 7-1 OVER in their eight games this season while the Bucks are 5-2 OVER in their seven games.  Both teams play fast, are great on offense and terrible on defense.

The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 1st on offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  The Bucks rank 6th in pace, 11th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.

That makes it no surprise that the OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Pacers and Bucks with 247 or more combined points in all five meetings, and none of the five went to OT.  They have averaged 263.4 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is 22.4 points more than this 241-point total tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 221

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency.  They just held the Kings to 89 and 97 points in their last two games coming in.

The Lakers are also more of an UNDER team, especially dating back to last season.  They rank 23rd in pace this season and 24th in offensive efficiency.  Instant offense bench player Gabe Vincent is out and Anthony Davis is questionable tonight.  Key defender Rui Hachimura is expected to return from a concussion tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Houston) - off a home win, a bad team from last season that won 25% to 40% of their games are 29-6 (82.9%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder gave the Golden State Warriors all they wanted in a 139-141 loss without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  He returned to lead them to a 126-117 home win over the surging Atlanta Hawks last time out.

Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with their best player back.  They have been the single-most undervalued team in the NBA over the last three years and are off to an impressive 5-2 ATS start this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season and remain overvalued here as road favorites.  This is a potential letdown spot for the Cavaliers after beating the Warriors 115-104 at home last time out.  They are getting healthier too and will be a bet on team soon, just not tonight.

Oklahoma City is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring 108 points per game or fewer.  The Thunder have won each of their last two meetings with the Cavaliers 112-100 at home and 108-105 on the road, which came earlier this season as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch in a game I expect them to win outright.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Pacers OVER 241

Both the Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz are dead nuts OVER teams and matched up tonight in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the season.  The Pacers are 6-1 OVER in their seven games this season while the Jazz are 6-2 OVER in their eight games.

The Pacers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency.  The Jazz rank 9th in the NBA in pace and 15th in offensive efficiency.  The Jazz rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 26th.

The Pacers and Jazz have combined for at least 238 points in each of their last three meetings, and they are even more OVER teams this season.  Indiana is 15-2 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  Utah is 54-34 OVER in its last 88 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221.5

A couple key injuries to both teams has me backing the UNDER between the New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Pelicans are going to be without CJ McCollum (21.7 PPG, 5.7 APG) who has been playing well and started each of the first six games for the Pelicans.  Their offense isn't going to run near as smoothly without him.

The key to the Nuggets success over the last several season has been Nikola Jokic paired with Jamaal Murray.  They just haven't been nearly as good when Murray has been sidelined, especially offensively.  Well, they will be without Murray (16.3 PPG, 7.4 APG) tonight with a quad injury.

The Pelicans and Nuggets have combined for 195 and 197 points in two of their last three meetings.  They have combined for 221 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets UNDER 219

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Rockets and Kings.  The Rockets won the first meeting 107-89 for just 196 combined points with a total of 220.5.  Now the total is 219 in the rematch, and they haven't adjusted it down low enough.

The Kings are really struggling offensively since losing their best player in PG De'Aaron Fox to injury.  They managed just 101 points on 40.9% shooting against the Warriors and 89 points on 38.1% shooting against the Rockets.  They are really lost without him and forced to play a different game, slowing it down and relying more on defense.

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 28th in pace this season and 22nd in offensive efficiency.  They are scoring just 107.6 points per game on 45.9% shooting this season.

Houston is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Rockets are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games as a home dog of 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic ML -115

The Dallas Mavericks are overvalued right now due to a 5-1 start this season against a very soft schedule.  Their five wins have come against the Spurs, Nets, Grizzlies, Bulls and Hornets with four of them coming by single-digits.  Their lone step up in class game they lost by 11 at Denver.

This is also a very tough spot for the Mavericks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in four days.  Luka Doncic played 36 minutes and Kyrie Irving 34 in an unimpressive 124-118 win over Charlottte as 11.5-point favorites last night.  The Hornets were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and nearly pulled the upset.

Now they must travel to Orlando overnight and play a Magic team that I believe is the most underrated in the NBA this season.  The Magic are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six games this season with their two losses both coming on the road to the Clippers and the Lakers (by 3).  The loss to the Clippers was the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They avenged that loss to the Lakers by beating them by 19 at home in the rematch last time out.

The Magic rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating while the Mavericks rank 22nd.  Poor defense is going to hurt the Magic all season, while the Magic will be a team you can rely on because they play defense consistently.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 218.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The Grizzlies and Blazers will be playing for a 2nd time in 3 days Sunday in Portland.  The first game on Friday went to OT but was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for just 204 combined points.  There's clearly value on the UNDER 218.5 in the rematch, and I think we cash this with ease barring OT.

The Blazers are going to be without their two young, talented guards in Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons again tonight.  They were already struggling offensively with these two, and it's only going to get worse without them.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-6 this season and struggling offensively without JA Morant and four other key players right now.  They rank dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency this season.  The Blazers are 28th in offensive efficiency, so these are the two of the three worst offensive teams in the NBA in the early going.

Portland also ranks 25th in pace and will slow it down playing at home, especially without both Henderson and Simons.  Familiarity will also force these teams to play at a slower pace because the defenses know what to expect now, which makes it tougher sledding for the offenses to try and get the ball in the positions they want to.

The Blazers are 26-14 UNDER in their last 40 games as home underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-3 in the their last nine meetings with the Grizzlies and would be 7-2 if not for OT.  Memphis is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Grizzlies last 14 road games following two or more consecutive losses.  Memphis is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Warriors/Cavs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland ML -120

The Golden State Warriors are coming off two straight buzzer-beater wins over the Kings (by 1) and Thunder (by 2).  But the Kings were without their best player in De'Aaron Fox and the Thunder were without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  I think this is a letdown spot for the Warriors off those two wins, and now they face a healthy Cleveland Cavaliers team on the road tonight.

The Cavaliers finally got Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland back from injury.  Now we're going to see what this team is capable of after a shaky 2-4 start that is allowing us to 'buy low' on them tonight.  I look for their best effort here with the Warriors coming to town Sunday night.  And we'll 'sell high' on the Warriors following five consecutive victories.

Golden State is 17-34 ATS in its last 51 road games.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5

The Utah Jazz are coming off a tough 2-point home loss to the Orlando Magic.  That followed up a 133-109 home win over Memphis the previous night as it was the 2nd of a back-to-back for them.  They also played the defending champion Nuggets tough in a 102-110 road loss as 8.5-point road dogs in their previous game.  This team is trending in the right direction.

Speaking of the defending champion Nuggets, the Timberwolves just beat them 110-89 at home to avenge their playoff loss to the Nuggets last season.  They will be flat as a pancake off such a big win.  I don't expect them to play with the kind of intensity tonight that it's going to take to put away the Jazz by 9-plus points.

Home-court advantage meant nothing in this series last season.  The road team went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with the Jazz winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs and outright as 8-point road dogs.  Utah is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after losing two of its last three games.  The Jazz are 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games as underdogs.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4

The Orlando Magic will be out for revenge from a 103-106 road loss to the Lakers are 3-point underdogs on October 30th just a few days ago.  Now they are 4-point home underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

I know the Magic will be without Wendell Carter Jr., but they are a deep team and can handle the loss.  The Lakers are without Gabe Vincent and Rui Hachimura and could be without Taurean Prince tonight.  They aren't a very deep team and can't afford these losses.

While the Magic will be highly motivated for revenge, the Lakers won't be that motivated at all to beat the Magic for the 2nd time in a week.  That's especially the case considering it's also a massive letdown spot for the Lakers coming off a 130-125 (OT) win over the Clippers that ended an 11-game losing streak in the series.  The Lakers will be flat as a pancake tonight.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Miami Heat needed the play-in round just to make the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last year.  They struggled in the regular season and were one of the biggest money burners in the NBA.  But they turned it on in the playoffs to make it all the way to the NBA Finals.  Postseason Miami is much better than regular season Miami.

That is playing out in the early going again this season.  The Heat whiffed on Damian Lillard while also losing two key role players in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in the offseason.  The Heat are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS through five games with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the lowly Detroit Pistons as 9.5-point favorites.  They lost by 8 at Boston, by 16 at Minnesota and by 8 at Milwaukee.  They were also upset as 6.5-point home favorites by the Nets.

I know the Wizards are rebuilding and not very good, but Miami cannot be expected to win by double-digits against anyone right now, which is what it's going to take to beat us.  The Wizards have played a tough schedule with their three losses to Indiana, Boston and Atlanta, and they covered in that loss to the Hawks.  They also beat Memphis at home.  They can hang with the Heat tonight.

Each of the last four meetings between Washington and Miami were decided by 8 points or less.  Six of the last seven meetings were decided by 8 points or less as well.  Miami is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Pacers OVER 225

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season only behind the Washington Wizards.  They rank 7th in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  They just lost 155-104 to the Celtics for 259 combined points, the second time in four games they have gone for 259-plus.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have more shooters than they did last season with the additions of Max Strus and Georges Niang.  They also take a hit defensively with these additions.  But they are shooting more 3-pointers and are more of an OVER team than last season because of it.

Indiana beat Cleveland 125-113 for 238 combined points earlier this season in a game that the Cavaliers rested Donovan Mitchell.  The Cavs and Pacers have combined for at least 225 points in five of their last six meetings, so this total is definitely a little short to say the least.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +1

This is a good spot to back the Orlando Magic.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Lakers and Clippers on the road, which was a tough spot playing them on back-to-back days.  Those are also two of the best teams in the NBA.  Now the Magic take a big step down in class here against the Utah Jazz.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 6 days, and they are fully healthy.

The spot couldn't be much worse for the Jazz.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They beat Memphis last night, but everyone is beating Memphis as the Grizzlies are still in search of their first victory.  The Jazz won't have a whole lot left in the tank for the Magic tonight.

The Magic are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.  The Jazz are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as home favorite of 6 points or fewer.  Orlando is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following two consecutive road games.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

20* Clippers/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles Clippers +5.5

I took a bad number here as it moved to +7 shortly after I released it on the news that both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are questionable to play tonight due to rest.  I still think the Clippers can be competitive with the Lakers if one or both sit.

The Clippers are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Lakers.  It's rare you get the opportunity to back them as underdogs to the Lakers, and the only reason we are tonight is due to the rest situation and the Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-102 win over the Magic last night.  But that was a blowout and the starters rested late in the 4th quarter and will still be fresh if they play tonight, plus there's no travel involved getting to stay at home here.

This is a fade of the Lakers more than anything.  The Lakers are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with their two wins coming 100-95 at home over the Suns, who were playing without both Booker and Beal, and 106-103 at home over the Magic who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They haven't blown out anyone and aren't going to blow out the Clippers tonight.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Knicks UNDER 211.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Cleveland and New York will be facing off for a 2nd consecutive day.  This is also a rematch from the playoffs last year, so familiarity is at an all-time high here between these teams.

Low-scoring games have been the norm when these teams get together.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 201 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  Given that fact, this total of 211.5 is too high tonight.

These teams combined for 200 points last night and it should be more of the same tonight.  The Cavaliers are dealing with key injuries to scorers in Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, plus Donovan Mitchell isn't 100% as he has been battling a hamstring injury in the early going.  The Knicks are fully healthy and a very good defensive team when that's the case.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5

It was going to take some time for Giannis, Lillard and the Bucks to gel.  Now that they have three games under their belts, I like the prospects of this team moving forward.  The Giants/Lillard pick and roll is pretty much unstoppable.

The Toronto Raptors are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  They lost Fred VanVleet in the offseason and their offense ranks dead last in the NBA in efficiency.  They are scoring just 99.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting this season, which is terrible in today's NBA.

The Raptors are 1-3 SU this season and lost by 7 to the 76ers and by 8 to the Blazers in their last two home games coming in.  That's a really bad loss to Portland because they are also one of the worst teams in the NBA.  This will be their toughest test yet.

Milwaukee is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games as a road favorite.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs took both the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets to the wire in their first two games this season.  But they were blasted by 40 points on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers last time out.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Spurs catching 7.5 points against the Phoenix Suns.

Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on the Suns after opening 3-0 ATS through their first three games.  It's going to catch up with them not having Devin Booker and Bradley Beal because this team doesn't have much talent outside the Big 3 in those two and Durant.  They shouldn't be favored by 7.5 points here over the Spurs without Booker and Beal tonight.

Phoenix is 32-54 ATS in its last 86 home games following a win by 20 points or more.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after scoring 95 points or less against an opponent that scored 125 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic ML +110

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a terrible spot tonight.  They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after going to OT and losing 127-132 at Sacramento last night.  Four starters played at least 39 minutes for the Lakers.  LeBron James is supposed to be on a minutes restriction, so don't be surprised if the Lakers sit him tonight.

The Lakers won't have much left in the tank for the Magic, who are one of my favorite teams to back in the early going this season because they have a lot of chemistry with pretty much everyone back from a team that was a ATS machine in the 2nd half of the season last year.  The Magic are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.

The Magic have been impressive to start this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS while beating Houston 116-86 as 4.5-point home favorites and Portland 102-97 as 3.5-point road favorites.  The Lakers are an overvalued commodity in the early going at 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS.  Orlando is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games.  Bet the Magic on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant when Zion Williams, CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram have been healthy at the same time.  They had the best record in the West last season before Zion went down.  They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season, winning 111-104 at Memphis and 96-87 at home over the Knicks.

While the Pelicans are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight, and don't be surprised to see them rest a starter or two.

The home team went 4-0 SU in four meetings between the Warriors and Pelicans last season with the home team winning by 9 points or more in all four.  Golden State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road dog of 6 points or less and was one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but not all back-to-backs are created equal.  They were blasted 127-110 at home by the Hawks last night, so they will be motivated to bounce back with a victory.  There's no travel involved as they are home again tonight, and the blowout nature of that loss meant the Bucks didn't play their starters much in the 4th quarter.  They should still be fresh and pissed off to bounce back.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round by the Miami Heat last year.  They want revenge, and they could have easily been overlooking the Hawks yesterday and looking ahead to this revenge game.

The Heat are one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season because of their historic run to the NBA Finals as an 8th seed.  They are much worse in the regular season than they are in the playoffs, needing the play-in round just to get into the playoffs last year.  They struck out on Damian Lillard in the offseason, and now he's with the Bucks.  The Heat just lack talent overall especially after losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus.

Miami is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS this season with their lone win coming 103-102 at home as 9.5-point favorites against Detroit.  They then lost by 8 as 8-point dogs at Boston and by 16 as 8.5-point dogs at Minnesota.  They are without two key role players in Caleb Martin and Josh Richardson, leaving too much on Jimmy Butler's shoulders.  They are relying on aging veterans Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love.  Their only good three healthy players are Butler, Adebayo and Herro, who is making his way back from injury.  This is a team I want to fade early in the season.  

Milwaukee is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Plays on favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in the first 6 games of the season, a playoff team from last season that lost 4 or more of their final 5 games are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most talented young teams in the NBA this season.  They brought back all their key pieces from last season including Haliburton, Mathurin and Turner.  They added Denver's key 6th man in Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin from the Knicks.

The Pacers are off an running with a 143-120 home win over the Wizards as 5-point favorites and a 125-113 road win at Cleveland as 3-point favorites.  There's value on the Pacers are only 2.5-point home favorites to the Chicago Bulls tonight.  The Pacers rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd in pace through two games.

The Bulls are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season with their lone win coming by a single point in OT at home against the Raptors where they needed a late comeback just to force OT.  The Bulls lost 104-124 as 2.5-point home favorites to OKC and 102-118 as 2.5-point road favorites at Detroit.  This is a bad Chicago team relying on a bunch of veterans that are pair their primes.  There's not much to like about this team, and Billy Donovan may be the first coach fired.

Indiana went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its final three meetings with Chicago last season.  The Bulls are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following a road loss.  Indiana is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5

Getting the Sacramento Kings as a short home favorite over the Los Angeles Lakers is a discount.  The Lakers were blasted by the Nuggets 119-107 on the road in their opener.  They needed a big 4th quarter comeback to beat the Suns 100-95 at home despite the Suns being without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.  The Lakers aren't hitting on all cylinders in the early going, and we'll fade them here today with LeBron James on a minutes restriction early.

The Sacramento Kings brought back 10 players that won the Pacific Division and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs last year.  They brought back all five starters.  They are healthy to start the season and blasted Utah 130-114 on the road in their opener.  Now we get the chance to 'buy low' on the Kings after losing 114-122 at home to the Warriors last time out.  They simply hat an off shooting night at 43.6% while the Warriors were on fire at 55.2%.  The Lakers don't shoot it like the Warriors do.

The Kings went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Lakers last season with their lone loss coming by 2 points, and all three wins coming by 5 points or more.  The Kings are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following a home loss.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry.  The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA.  They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year.

The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season.  They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix.  This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace.  

They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago as 2.5-point road dogs in the opener and a 108-105 win at Cleveland as 2.5-point road dogs.  Now the Thunder get their home opener and have some of the best fans in the NBA.  You know they are going to turn out to support this team with the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets coming to town Sunday.

I think the Nuggets are being overvalued due to winning the title and are going to be fighting a championship hangover early in the season.  They were able to escape with a win over the Lakers in the opener with a big 4th quarter, and also escaped with a 108-104 win at Memphis as 5.5-point road favorites.  Memphis is way down early in the season without JA Morant while missing a few other guys to key injuries.  This will be Denver's toughest test of the young season by far.

The Thunder are 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games after allowing 105 points or less.  The Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Nuggets.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.