15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to play better.  They have won four of their last five games overall.  But they are actually 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, so they are not living up to expectations from oddsmakers.  I think that has them undervalued now as only 6.5-point favorites against the Hornets. 

Paul George has sat out the last two games, but he is expected to return for this contest against the Charlotte Hornets.  They blew a 16-point lead to the Nets in their first game without him.  Then they came back from 20 points down to beat the Grizzlies in overtime.  I think having him back in the lineup will be a huge boost tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets are really struggling.  They are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have lost back-to-back home games to the Bulls and Lakers.  They have a laundry list of injuries they are dealing with right now, too.  Nic Batum (elbow), Frank Kaminsky (ankle) and Jeremy Lamb (ankle) are all questionable, while Cody Zeller (knee) is out. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oklahoma City) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996.  Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Hornets are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Oklahoma City.  Take the Thunder Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +8.5 

The Sacramento Kings just can’t get any respect from the books.  And until they do, we’ll continue to back them catching big points in the underdog role.  They should not be this big of a home underdog to the Toronto Raptors today. 

The Kings are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-4 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Three of the four wins were upsets, including a win at New Orleans as 9.5-point dogs and a win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs.  The are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games, pulling off outright upsets over the Thunder, 76ers, Blazers and Lakers in the process. 

The Raptors are getting too much love from the books due to their 5-game winning streak coming in.  But those five wins came against the Hawks, Hornets, Pacers, Suns and Grizzlies.  That’s an easy slate, and it showed considering they were 5-point favorites or more in all five games.  It won’t come so easy against the Kings tonight. 

The Kings are 16-3 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home meetings with the Raptors.  Sacramento is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in all meetings with Toronto over the past two seasons, winning both road meetings outright as underdogs as well.  The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2 

I absolutely love this situation for the Atlanta Hawks Saturday.  They just lost to Orlando in overtime on the road on December 6th 106-110.  They have now had two days off to get ready for the Magic, and they’ll clearly want revenge getting them at home this time around. 

Meanwhile, the Magic had to play a game last night against Denver, losing 89-103 at home.  So this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 days for the Magic.  That’s about as tough a situation as it gets. 

The Magic are running on fumes right now as they haven’t had two days in a row off since November 16-17.  They will be playing their 10th game in 16 days with three back-to-backs in there.  They are short-handed right now without arguably their best player in Evan Fournier, and key 6th man Terrance Ross.  Also star rookie Jonathan Isaac is doubtful with an ankle injury. 

Orlando is 12-27 ATS versus teams who give up 106 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Orlando is 0-6 ATS in its last six when its opponent allows 100 points or more int heir previous game.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Bet the Hawks Saturday. 

15* Celtics/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on San Antonio -2 

The San Antonio Spurs are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight.  At 17-8 on the season, the Spurs are hardly missing Kawhi Leonard.  They are playing team ball with 30 assists in their last game and a ridiculous eight of their 11 players scored at least 10 points in a 117-105 win over Miami. 

I think the Celtics are grossly overrated right now due to their 22-4 start to the season.  You certainly are paying a tax to back them now.  That’s why they have only covered two of their last five against the spread coming into this game.  Now they are getting too much respect from the books again at basically a pick ‘em on the road here against one of the best teams in the NBA. 

The Spurs have owned the Celtics, going 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Spurs have won five straight home meetings with the Celtics dating back to 2011. 

San Antonio is 25-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.  Boston is 8-19 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three years.  The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Friday games.  Take the Spurs Friday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +9

The Sacramento Kings are going to want revenge from a 106-114 home loss to the Pelicans the first time these teams played.  DeMarcus Cousins had a monster game against his former team, but don’t expect that to happen again.  He won’t be nearly as motivated the second time around. 

And Cousins is going to be asked to do a lot with the Pelicans’ best player in Anthony Davis sidelined for this one with a groin injury.  Solomon Hill and Alexis Ajinca are also out with injuries.  The Pelicans can’t be laying this kind of number with their current injury situation. 

The Kings have been grossly underrated here of late as they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-4 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat the Warriors on the road and the Lakers and Bulls at home.  Three of their four losses during this stretch came by 6 points or less, including their 95-101 loss in Cleveland as 12.5-point dogs last time out.  It took some late Lebron James heroics to put them away. 

The Kings are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  The Pelicans are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with three double-digit losses during this stretch.  They are clearly missing Davis. 

New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in home games versus teams who are outscored by their opponents by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three seasons.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Kings Friday. 

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Nets OVER 214.5 

This game is played in Mexico City tonight to showcase the NBA.  The players will want to put on a show, and I look for their to be little defense played in this game.  It will be played at a fast tempo as well for entertainment value. 

The Nets already prefer to play at a face pace.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 104.9 possessions per game, only behind the Lakers and Suns.  They also don’t play a lick of defense.  The Thunder will take advantage and will hang a big number on them. 

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams.  They have combined for 226, 229 and 222 points in those three meetings.  That’s an average of 225.7 combined points per game, which is over 11 points more than this 214.5-point total 

Brooklyn is 12-3 OVER against Northwest Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 28-14 OVER in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* Warriors/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +6 

The Golden State Warriors are in a world of hurt right now with their injuries.  It was already announced that Stephen Curry was going to miss two weeks with a bad ankle injury suffered in their last game.  And this morning it was announced that Draymond Green will also sit with a shoulder injury. 

Curry is the most important player on this team even though Kevin Durant won the MVP in the finals last year.  He makes this team tick.  And Green is perhaps the most underrated player in the NBA.  No other team has a player like him.  He sets the best screens and is the key to their pick and roll action with his ability to pass the ball and find open teammates.  And he’s one of the best defenders in the NBA. 

The Hornets just recently got their star PG Kemba Walker back in the lineups nd promptly crushed Orlando 104-94 last time out.  Now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days and will be fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, the Warriors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 8th game in 12 days.  They are running on fumes right now, which makes the fact that they are without Green and Curry even worse. 

Charlotte is 19-7 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days over the last three seasons.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS in road games when playing a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +9.5 

The tax you have to pay to back the Boston Celtics right now is very steep.  That’s because they have opened 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS through their first 25 games of the season.  You are going to be getting no discounts on them with the betting public catching on already. 

Conversely, you can get a great price on the Dallas Mavericks due to their 7-17 SU & 10-14 ATS start.  But they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are a much better team than that record would indicate. 

Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have beaten Milwaukee by 32, Oklahoma City by 16, the Clippers by 26 and the Nuggets by 17 during this streak.  They are not only beating teams, they are crushing them.  And their three losses have all come by 8 points or fewer in their last eight games. 

One of those was a 102-110 home loss in overtime to this same Celtics team on November 20th, meaning the Mavericks will be motivated for revenge just two weeks later.  And the Celtics have a huge road game at San Antonio on deck and could be looking ahead to that contest. 

Dallas is 26-13 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Boston is 3-12 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 2-11 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% over the last two seasons. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off three or more consecutive home wins are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Boston.  The road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Blazers NBATV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -5.5 

It’s safe to say the Portland Trail Blazers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back upset home losses to the Bucks and Pelicans.  I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, fatigued Washington Wizards tonight. 

The Wizards will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an ugly 69-114 loss in Utah last night.  They remain without John Wall, and have gone just 3-6 in their last nine games overall.  Now they’re up against a fresh, pissed off Blazers team that has had two days off coming into this one. 

The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Wizards are 2-11 ATS versus teams who average 20 or fewer assists per game over the last two seasons.  The Blazers have been talking about their lack of assists and why the offense has struggled recently, so look for them to play more team-oriented bacsketball tonight. 

"That's a reflection of how our offense is struggling,” Damian Lillard said. "We're not shooting the ball as well, we're not scoring as well, and so the assists are down.”  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak.  But they are just 5-6 ATS during this streak as most of those wins have been close.  In fact, nine of those 11 wins have come by 11 points or less, including seven by 8 points or fewer. 

Conversely, the Bulls are undervalued right now due their 8-game losing streak, so it’s the perfect storm.  But six of those eight losses have come by 9 points or less.  And they have had some really hard luck of late, losing their last four games by 1, 1, 5 and 7 points.  This team is quietly improving under Fred Hoiberg. 

The Bulls have been a thorn in Cleveland’s side in recent years.  In fact, the Bulls are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They only lost 112-119 in Cleveland as 15-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on October 24th.  The Bulls are actually 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with Cleveland!   

The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS as a favorite this season.  Cleveland is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 when playing against a team with a winning % of 25% or worse.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Brooklyn Nets fit one of my favorite situations to play in the NBA.  This is a home-and-home situation between the Nets and Hawks.  They just played on Saturday with the Hawks pulling the 114-102 upset in Brooklyn.  Now, it’s revenge time for the Nets, who will clearly be the more motivated team in the rematch. 

There’s no question the Nets are simply the better team.  They are 8-14 on the season compared to 5-17 for Atlanta.  The telling stat is that Brooklyn is 14-8 ATS in 22 games this year, including 8-4 ATS in road games.  This team has been undervalued all season, and they should not be underdogs here after being 4.5-point home favorites against the Hawks on Saturday. 

The Nets are 41-22 ATS in their last 63 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Hawks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Atlanta) - off an upset win as a road underdog, with a losing record are 78-45 (63.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nets Monday. 

15* Warriors/Heat NBA Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 219.

Two of the better defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors visit the Miami Heat Sunday.  The Warriors are 5th in defensive efficiency, while the Heat are 12th. 

With the Heat playing at home today, they will control the tempo.  And their best chance to win is to limit possessions.  The Heat prefer to play at a slow tempo as it is, ranking tied for 20th in pace at 98.9 possessions per game. 

The recent series history really shows there is value with the UNDER.  Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in all three meetings over the past two seasons.  They have combined for 177, 207 and 202 points in those three games for an average of 195.3 combined points per game.  That’s a whopping 24 points less than tonight’s posted total of 219.5, showing there is real value with the UNDER. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five games overall.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Heat last 10 after allowing 100 points or more int heir previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* Pelicans/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -6 

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 108-114 in Utah last night.  And now they will be without their best player in Anthony Davis, who left the Utah game with an ankle injury and is doubtful tonight. 

The Blazers will be focused after losing 91-103 at home to Milwaukee on Thursday.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days so they’ll be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They are 100% healthy now, which is a big reason they’ve gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall coming in. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Blazers have won 12 of their past 13 home meetings with the Pelicans.  The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven visits to Portland. 

The Pelicans are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on no rest.  New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 Saturday games.  The Pelicans are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 road games following two or more consecutive overs.  They are losing by 13.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Nets OVER 218.5 

Two teams who love to push the tempo square off Saturday.  The Nets rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.2 possessions per game, while the Hawks rank 11th at 100.3 possessions per game.  So this game is going to be played at a fast pace without question. 

And both teams certainly aren’t concerned about playing much defense.  The Nets rank 25th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 26th, giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions. 

These teams already played to 220 combined points in their first and only meeting this season when the Nets won 116-104 at home on October 22nd.  And they got to 220 despite that fact that Atlanta shot just 34.0% from the field. 

Atlanta is 27-9 to the OVER in its last 36 road games off two or more consecutive home losses.  The OVER is 5-1 in Nets last six home games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Hawks last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday. 

15* T’Wolves/Thunder NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -5.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in and five of their last six overall, with coincidentally their lone win coming 108-91 over Golden State as 5-point dogs.  They can turn it on when they want to. 

I certainly think the Thunder will turn it on tonight considering their will be out for revenge from two losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves already this season.  They lost at the buzzer 113-115 at home to Minnesota on October 22nd and 116-119 at Minnesota on October 27th.  They haven’t forgotten and will be wanting to avenge those two heartbreakers. 

The Timberwolves have certainly been overvalued here of late.  They have gone 1-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  A lot of that probably has to do with fatigue as they haven’t had two straight days off since November 9-10, and they will be playing their 12th game in 21 days here tonight. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City will be playing just its 2nd game in 6 days here.  Plays on favorites revenging two consecutive losses as a favorite, a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 144-90 (61.5%) ATS since 1996.  Minnesota is 2-11 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Thunder Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -7.5 

The Toronto Raptors will be out for revenge against the Indiana Pacers from their 104-107 road loss at Indiana on November 24th one week ago.  Now they get the Pacers at home this time around and should have no problem winning and covering. 

Since that loss, the Raptors have absolutely obliterated their two opponents.  They won 112-78 in Atlanta and 126-113 at home against Charlotte.  And the Raptors will be rested and ready to go now as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Pacers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here, and they are coming off a 97-118 loss in Houston on Wednesday night.  The Pacers could be without one of their best players in forward Myles Turner, who is questionable with a knee injury. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Toronto has won its last two home meetings with Indiana by 11 and 25 points.  The Pacers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 trips to Toronto.  Take the Raptors Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3 

Quietly, the Portland Trail Blazers have gotten 100% healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall, which is impressive when you consider they played six of those nine games on the road. 

Now they’ve had two days off since winning 103-91 in New York on Monday.  They’ll be rested and ready to go and happy to be back at home for the first time since November 18th.  The Blazers have a huge home-court advantage and should be bigger favorites here against the Milwaukee Bucks. 

This is a Bucks team that is not healthy right now and not playing well.  The Bucks have lost three of their last five with all three losses coming by double-digits to Dallas (79-111), Washington (88-99) and Utah (108-121).  Their only two wins during this stretch came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Phoenix and Sacramento. 

The Blazers will want revenge from their 110-113 loss in Milwaukee on October 21st in their first meeting this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Blazers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 10 points.  The Bucks haven’t won back-to-back games against Portland since 2012-13.  Take the Blazers Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  Their only two losses came to Boston (in OT) and San Antonio (by 7 on the road), two of the best teams in the league. 

Their three wins were mighty impressive, too.  They beat Milwaukee 111-79 as 6-point home underdogs.  The upset Memphis 95-94 as 6-point road dogs.  And they crushed Oklahoma City 97-81 as 6-point home dogs.  This is a team we clearly want to be betting on right now. 

Conversely, the Brooklyn Nets are a team we want to be fading due to their injury situation.  The Nets are playing without four of their best players in Jeremy Lin, D’Angelo Russell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Allen Crabbe right now.  Not to mention, DeMarre Carroll is dealing with a respiratory illness.  I see no way they are even competitive tonight. 

The Nets will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and they are just 14-28 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last three seasons.  Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Mavericks Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  After upsetting the Warriors 108-91 at home, they clearly had a letdown in losing back-to-back games to the Pistons and Mavericks.  Now they’ve had three days off since losing to Dallas and will be rested and ready to go tonight. 

"I think that the last two games, coming after the Warriors game, we just really haven't gotten going offensively," Thunder coach Billy Donovan said. "In periods of time, we just really haven't gotten going. At some point, and hopefully soon, we can get it going offensively.”

The Thunder should be able to get right against an Orlando Magic team that is 0-9 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Magic have rarely been competitive during this skid, losing six times by double-digits.  I think you can chalk up another double-digit loss here tonight.

The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Oklahoma City is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Orlando is 9-22-1 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -1.5

The Denver Nuggets aren't nearly the team they were before with Paul Millsap.  They have missed him quite a bit since he suffered a torn ligament in his left wrist.  They also have two key players in Wilson Chandler and Mason Plumlee questionable for tonight's game against the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are better team with Rudy Gobert, so his loss is big.  However, they have surprised me quite a bit with how well they have played without him.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with three double-digits victories.  They beat Orlando 125-85 on the road, and Chicago (110-80) and Milwaukee (121-108) at home.

Utah simply owns Denver in Salt Lake City.  The Jazz are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings with the Nuggets.  The Jazz have won 37 of their past 45 home meetings with the Nuggets overall.  The home team has won five straight and seven of the last eight meetings in this series.

The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit win.  The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Salt Lake City.  Take the Jazz Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls +1

The Chicago Bulls are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA at 3-15 on the season.  However, they get a rare opportunity for a win here against another awful team in the Phoenix Suns, who are 7-14 on the season.  I look for the Bulls to take advantage and win this game at home here tonight.

The Bulls will be out for revenge from a 105-113 loss at Phoenix on November 19th just over a week ago.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  The Bulls have played a road-heavy schedule thus far with 11 road games compared to only seven at home.

The Suns have played a home-heavy schedule with 13 home games compared to just eight road games.  Phoenix plays zero defense as it is, especially on the road.  They are giving up 117.2 points per game on the road this season.  The Bulls are giving up just 99.3 points per game at home.

The Suns are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Phoenix is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Suns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days' rest.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7

The Detroit Pistons are showing great value as 7-point road underdogs to the Boston Celtics tonight.  This team has been flying under the radar all season, going 12-6 SU & 12-5-1 ATS in their 18 games.  They just continue to get no respect from oddsmakers night in and night out.

Detroit already has impressive upset road wins over the Warriors, Timberwolves and Thunder this season.  Now the Pistons are in a great spot here as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days, so they are well-rested and ready to go.  They beat Oklahoma City 99-98 as 8.5-point road dogs in their only other game over the past seven days.

The Boston Celtics are starting to get massive respect from oddsmakers thanks to their 18-1 SU & 16-2-1 ATS run over their past 19 games.  It's time to start fading this team now at hefty price tags like this one.  They now have a target on their back and it will be tough for them to live up to the massive expectations they have created for themselves.

Detroit has played Boston extremely tough on the road lately.  The Pistons are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Boston.  The Pistons haven't lost by more than 7 points at Boston in any of the last 10 makings, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing Detroit pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight.  Take the Pistons Monday.

15* Cavs/76ers NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +1

Despite being one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 11-7 this season, the Philadelphia 76ers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are once again home underdogs here to the Cleveland Cavaliers in what will be a statement game for the 76ers to prove that they can beat the defending Eastern Conference champs.

Philadelphia has gone 11-4 SU & 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  I has covered six straight coming in.  And now the 76ers are expected to get back star point guard Ben Simmons from an elbow injury tonight.  Star center Joel Embiid is also expected to play through an illness, so the 76ers are at full strength right now aside from Markelle Fultz.

The Cavaliers have been overvalued all season and continue to be.  They are 12-7 SU but just 6-12-1 ATS in their first 17 games.  They are missing three key players in Derrick Rose, Tristan Thompson and Isaiah Thomas, and they just aren't talented enough to win and cover games consistently without these three.  It also doesn't help that the Cavs rank 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.9 points per 100 possessons.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Philadelphia is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cavs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 trips to Philadelphia.  Roll with the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Grizzlies OVER 210.5

The OVER is 6-0 in Brooklyn's last six games overall.  They have combined for at least 211 points with all six opponents and are averaging 227.5 combined points during this stretch.  I think there's value with the OVER 210.5 Sunday in game games against Memphis.

The reason the Nets play in so many high-scoring games is because they rank 1st in the NBA in pace, averaging 106.5 possessions per game.  They are also 26th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.3 points per 100 possessions.  Even the offensively-challenged Grizzlies will hang a big number on them here Sunday.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series.  The two meetngs last year saw 215 and 231 combined points.  And the Nets are playing at an even faster pace this season than last, so they should have no problem topping 211 points in their first meeting of 2017-18.

Memphis is 24-8 OVER after being outrebounded by 20 or more boards in its previous game.  Brooklyn is 14-4 OVER when playing six or less games in 14 days over the past two seasons.  The OVER is 37-18-1 in Nets last 56 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Clippers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have no business being favored on the road against the Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Clippers are 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only win came against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks.  They are decimated by injuries as they are without two starters in Patrick Beverly and Danilo Gallinari.

The Kings don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers when playing at home as they still have one of the most udnerrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  That has shown of late.  The Kings are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, pulling off four upsets against Oklahoma City (94-86) as 10.5-point dogs, Philadelphia (109-108) as 6.5-point dogs), Portland (86-82) as 7-point dogs and the LA Lakers (113-102) as 1-point dogs.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and playing great basketball.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers.  The wrong team is favored in this one folks as I believe Sacramento wins outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Take the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season Wednesday, a 108-91 domination of the Golden State Warriors in a game that they were determined to prove they could contend in the West.  Mission accomplished.  Now they won't have nearly the same fight against the Detroit Pistons tonight.

Meanwhile, the Pistons will have the fight as they have lost three of their last four games coming in.  They have had three days off in between games to get ready for the Thunder having last played on November 20th.  That will be a huge advantage for them coming into this game.

I really like this Pistons team and feel they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  That has proven to be the case as they are 11-6 SU & 11-5-1 ATS, yet nobody is talking about them.  They are still trying to earn their respect, and a win over the Thunder today would go a long ways.  This team has impressive road wins over Golden State and Minnesota already this season.  Detroit is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8

The Boston Celtics are in a very tough spot here mentally.  They put a lot into their 16-game winning streak.  But that streak came to an end at Miami on Wednesday.  Now they will suffer a 'hangover' effect from that defeat, and they won't bring the kind of intensity it takes to put Orlando away by 8-plus points tonight.

The Magic will be highly motivated for a victory after losing six straight coming in.  Most of those losses were close, and most came against some of the top teams in the NBA like Golden State, Denver, Portland, and Minnesota, all on the road.  They should be hungry to end this skid against the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Magic will also be out for revenge from an 88-104 home loss to the Celtics in their first and only meeting on November 5th less than three weeks ago.  Motivation is huge in the NBA, and there's no question in my mind that the Magic will want this game more than the Celtics do tonight, which is half the battle, matchups aside.

Frank Vogel is 29-12 ATS in November road games in all games he has coached.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a tough spot here.  They used a huge second half to come back and beat the Bulls at home last night 103-94.  They outscored the Bulls 61-38 after intermission to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.

I think the wrong team is favored here given the situation.  The Kings have been an underrated home team throughout the years, especially here over the past few weeks.  They are 3-1 in their last four home games, pulling the outright upsets over the Thunder (94-86) as 10.5-point dogs, the 76ers (109-108) as 6.5-point dogs and the Blazers (86-82) as 7-point dogs.

The Lakers are 7-21 ATS off two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in road games versus poor offensive teams who score 98 or fewer points per game over the last three seasons.  The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Lakers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Sacramento is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Thunder ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 221

Two of the better defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Warriors and Kevin Durant return to Oklahoma City to take on the new-look Thunder.  This game will be played with a high intensity level on the defensive end, which will make points harder to come by.

The Thunder rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.2 points per 100 possessions.  The Warriors are right behind them at 6th, giving up 101.4 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 34-12 (73.9%) over the last five seasons.

The UNDER is 11-5 in Thunder last 16 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Heat UNDER 197.5

The biggest reason the Boston Celtics have won 16 straight games is because they have been the best defensive team in the NBA, and by a wide margin.  The Celtics rank 1st in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.8 points per 100 possessions.

Now they are up against a Miami Heat team that is also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA when Hassan Whiteside is on the floor.  Whiteside missed a handful of games early in the season, which has the Heat's defensive numbers skewed a bit.  They rank 14th in defensive efficiency but are better than that with Whiteside.

The Heat are 26th in offensive efficiency, while the Celtics are 20th.  Both teams prefer to play at slower tempos as the Heat are 19th in pace and the Celtics 20th.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Heat last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Heat last 10 games overall. 

These teams just played on October 28th in their first meeting this season.  The Celtics won that game 96-90 for 186 combined points.  I think we see a similar final here as this game stays well UNDER the 197.5-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

The Charlotte Hornets are now finally healthy for the first time all season.  It is starting to pay off as they have delivered back-to-back blowout home victories over the Clippers (102-87) and the Timberwolves (118-102).  Now I expect them to get the win and cover at home tonight against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and they haven't had two days off in a row for the entire month of December.  I think this is a tired team right now and they have lost two of their last three coming in.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Hornets and Wizards.  Indeed, the home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  The Hornets basically just have to win the game to cover this 2.5-point spread tonight.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets had Sunday off and will be rested and ready to go after beating the Los Angeles Clippers 102-87 at home on Saturday.  They had lost six in a row prior to that victory, so they should remain motivated here to get things turned around.

Conversely, the Minnesota Timberwolves played Sunday and lost 97-100 at home to the Detroit Pistons.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I think this tough spot makes them a nice 'play against' team here today.

Plays against any team (Minnesota) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games or more on the season are 70-33 ATS over the last five seasons.

The Timberwolves are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -5

After a slow start to the season, the Denver Nuggets have played up to their potential of late by going 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off their best performance of the season, a 146-114 win over the Pelicans. 

Now, the Nuggets are only being asked to lay 5 points to the struggling Lakers.  And this is a good situation for the Nuggets, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They’ll be rested and ready to go tonight. 

The Lakers have lost five of their last six coming in, including a 113-122 home loss to the Suns last time out.  They will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.  Lonzo Ball has looked like a bust up to this point and has been getting benched in the 4th quarter. 

The Nuggets have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Lakers.  Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings in Los Angeles.  The Nuggets are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 125 or more points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 after playing two consecutive home games.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* Kings/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199

The Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings are playing a home-and-home situation here.  They just played last night with the Kings upsetting the Blazers 86-82 as 7-point home dogs. 

I always like backing the UNDER in the second game of these home-and-home situations because familiarity favors defense.  And after they combined for just 168 points last night, I don’t know how the oddsmakers can justify setting this total at 199 a night later.  I think there’s all kinds of value with the UNDER here, especially with how poor the Kings have been offensively this season and how good the Blazers have been defensively. 

Note: I locked this line in at 199 as soon as I could, and it has dropped quite a bit since the opener.  I would still recommend a bet on the UNDER all the way down to 193.   Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 214.5

Amazingly, the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets will already be playing for a fourth and final time this season.  Familiarity favors defense, which is why I really like this UNDER tonight in their fourth meeting. 

It’s easy to see that this total has been inflated when you look at the results of the three previous meetings.  The Grizzlies and Rockets have combined for 188, 192 and 207 points in those three meetings.   

That’s an average of just 195.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight’s posted total of 214.5.  We’re essentially getting 19 points of value.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Wizards UNDER 209

This is a home-and-home situation.  The Wizards beat the Heat 102-93 on Wednesday.  Now they play each other just two days later on Friday.  They're obviously familiar with one another now, and familiarity favors defense.  That's why I like the UNDER in this home-and-home situation.

After all, they combined for just 195 points in their first meeting on Wednesday.  Now the books have set this number clear up at 209, which is 14 points more than they combined for on Wednesday.  I think we see a similar result here with under 200 combined points.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 52-24 (68.4%) since 1996.

Miami is 14-4 UNDER in road games when revenging a loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Wizards last six games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Heat last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Miami's last eight games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat +5.5

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  It's a home-and-home situation between the Miami Heat and Washington Wizards.  Washington beat Miami 102-93 on Wednesday, outscoring the Heat 31-19 in the fourth quarter to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. 

Now, playing two days later, the Heat will be the team out for revenge, and thus the more motivated squad.  A lot of being successful in the NBA is handicapping motivation, and there's no question the Heat are the team you want tonight given this home-and-home situation.

That was a rare win for the Wizards in this series as the Heat are still 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings, winning outright as underdogs in three of those.  I think they get their revenge and win this game outright, though we'll take the 5.5 points for some added insurance.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Heat are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 meetings in Washington.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after failing to score the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons.  It is coming back to win these road games 102.0 to 100.5 on average.  The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* Warriors/Celtics TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216

The biggest reason the Boston Celtics have been able to win 13 straight games is because they bring it defensively every night.  In fact, the Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.8 points per 100 possessions.  They are allowing just 94.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting on the season.

The Golden State Warriors are also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They rank 6th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Warriors have given up 99.2 points per game in their last six contests.

Recent meetings between these teams indicate there's value with the UNDER, and the Celtics were a lot worse defensively than they are this season.  Each of the last five meetings have seen 215 or fewer points at the end of regulation.  They have averaged 201 combined points in those five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 216, giving us a ton of value with the UNDER.  They combined for 185 and 192 points in their two meetings last season.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (BOSTON) - after four or more consecutive wins against opponent after five or more consecutive wins are 34-8 (81%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Warriors last 17 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Celtics last 16 vs. NBA Pacific.  The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and would be 9-1 if not for overtime.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been a completely different team since Eric Bledsoe was inserted into the lineup after being traded from the Suns.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games with him, beating the Spurs 94-87 on the road, and the Lakers (98-90) and Grizzlies (110-103) at home.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 4.8 apg) is having an MVP-caliber season, but he wasn't getting much help before Bledsoe (13.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg with Milwaukee) arrived.  Now he has his help with Khris Middleton (18.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Malcolm Brogdon (15.1 ppg, 4.1 apg) also playing well.

The Detroit Pistons have certainly been one of the most underrated teams up to this point, going 10-3 SU & 9-3-1 ATS through their first 13 games this season.  But they have done most of their damage at home with eight home games compared to five on the road.  And with that early success comes expectations that I don't think they can live up to.  They are getting too much respect now from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point road dogs to the Bucks tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has gone 12-3 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  The Bucks are 6-1 straight up in their last seven home meetings with the Pistons.  Detroit is 5-15 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Cavs/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +2.5

The Charlotte Hornets have had four days off between games having last played on Friday.  They will be rested and ready to go against the defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  This extra time off has helped get Nic Batum ready for his season debut after missing the first 12 games with an injury.

The Hornets will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight.  But all four losses came on the road, and three were by 7 points or less.  The Hornets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, scoring 111.6 points per game and shooting 47.2% from the floor at home.

They should feast on an overrated Cavaliers team that is just 7-7 SU & 4-9-1 ATS.  The Cavs have been hit hard by injuries as they'll be playing without Isaiah Thomas, Tristan Thompson and Derrick Rose tonight.  But the biggest problem for the Cavs is they don't play defense, ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency, giving up a ridiculous 111.1 points per 100 possessions.

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS as a favorite this season.  Charlotte is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat -1

The Miami Heat will be happy to be back home following a tough six-game road trip.  They went 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS on the trip with their three losses coming to Denver (by 1), Detroit (by 9) and Golden State.  They upset the Clippers and Jazz and thumped the Suns.

Normally I don't like backing teams off a long trip like that in their first game back home, but I think we are safe to do it here tonight.  That's because Miami has had two days off since losing to the Pistons on Sunday.  It has given them time to take care of their priorities at home, and they should come out 100% focused against the Wizards tonight.

I think the Wizards are getting too much love from oddsmakers right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  But they have played four straight and six of their last seven at home, and the three straight wins have come against three of the worst teams in the NBA in the Lakers, Hawks and Kings.  Not to mention, they were upset by another bad team in the Mavs 99-113 as 9.5-point favorites prior to the winning streak.

The Heat simply own the Wizards.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Washington.  They were actually underdogs in three of those contests and a 1-point favorite in another.  They clearly have the Wizards figured out.  And I think their biggest advantage is the fact that they have a deep bench, while the Wizards have basically no bench, and that always seems to get overlooked.

Plays against any team (WASHINGTON) - after three consecutive covers as a favorite, in November games are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This trend makes a lot of sense and shows there is value fading teams off three consecutive covers as a favorite like the Wizards are right now.  Take the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +7.5

The Boston Celtics are way overvalued right now and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  The Celtics have won 12 straight since losing their first two games of the season, going 10-1-1 ATS in the process.  The betting public is all of this team now, and they're being asked to lay 7.5 points on the road to a pesky Brooklyn Nets team.

Kyrie Irving missed last game due to injury and could miss this one as well.  I also think it's a great situation to face the Celtics here.  They are coming off a huge 95-94 upset win over Toronto without Irving, and now they have an even bigger game on deck at home against Golden State Thursday night.  This is a classic sandwich spot, and I don't expect them to be 100% focused for this one like they have been up to this point.

The Nets have quietly gone 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  They pulled off road upset wins over Phoenix and Portland, only lost on the road to Denver by 8 as 12.5-point dogs, and barely failed to cover as 7-point dogs in an 8-point loss at Utah.  This team has been highly competitive this season and should continue being undervalued.

Plays against favorites (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 73-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games, and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Nets Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

We could look back to the Eric Bledsoe trade and realize the Milwaukee Bucks got an absolute steal.  Bledsoe wore out his welcome in Phoenix, but he has come back determined and motivated to show that he is still a great player in this league.  The Bucks will continue getting the best out of him this season.

In Bledsoe's two games with the Bucks, they won 94-87 at San Antonio as 4.5-point dogs, and topped the Lakers 98-90 at home as 6.5-point favorites.  Now they are only being asked to lay 3.5 points here at home to the Memphis Grizzlies.  I think this is a nice discount as the Bucks are the better team and should roll.

The Grizzlies took the league by surprise in the first couple weeks in winning five of their first six.  But now the Grizzlies have gone 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games.  They have been on the road for a long time as this will be their 5th straight road games following a 96-111 loss in Houston on Saturday.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Heat/Pistons UNDER 202

The books continue to set the bar too high in Miami Heat games.  The Heat have been a completely different team since Hassan Whiteside returned to the lineup from a five-game absence.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in five of six games since his return, including 97 or fewer four times.  He is one of the best defenders in the NBA and a perennial candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors.

The Detroit Pistons have an eraser of their own just like Whiteside in Andre Drummond.  The Pistons have held four straight opponents to 104 or fewer points, including 99 or fewer three times.  Miami ranks 8th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.7 points per 100 possessions.  Detroit ranks 12th, giving up 102.3 points per 100 possessions.

Both teams also prefer to play at slower paces.  Detroit ranks 21st in pace at 99.1 possessions per game, while Miami is 17th at 100.3 possessions per game.  That helps to explain why this is usually a low-scoring series when these teams get together because they both play great defense and the tempo is closer to a snail's pace.

Detroit and Miami have combined for 197 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 195.9 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is roughly 6 points less than today's 202-point total, showing you what kind of value we are getting.

Better yet, each of the last seven meetings in Detroit have seen 199 or fewer combined points.  They have averaged just 192.1 combined points in those seven meetings, which is 10 points less than this 202-point total.  The UNDER is 21-7-1 in Heat last 29 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Pistons last 27 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Rockets UNDER 211

The Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets will already be meeting for a third time this season Saturday.  These teams are obviously very familiar with one another because of it, and familiarity favors defense more than offense.  I think the books have set the ball too high tonight with this 211-point total.

That's especially the case when you look at the first two meetings in this series.  Memphis won 98-90 in Houston for just 188 combined points.  The Grizzlies also won 103-89 at home over the Rockets for 194 combined points.  I'm not sure how oddsmakers can justify this 211-point total.

I think the reason it's inflated is because Houston has gone over the total in five straight.  But they have faced some terrible defensive teams during this stretch in Philadelphia, New York, Atlanta and Cleveland.  Now they'll be up against the Grizzlies, who rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.7 points per 100 possessions.

Surprisingly, Houston isn't pushing the tempo as much this season.  The Rockets rank 15th in the NBA in pace at 101.1 possessions per game, which is right int he middle of the pack.  Memphis ranks tied for 29th in pace at 97.9 possessions per game, still preferring to run at a snail's pace with their grit 'n grind mentality.

Houston is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 home games vs. division opponents.  The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Grizzlies last 21 when playing on 3 or more days' rest.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Rockets last 19 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 24-11 in the last 35 meetings in Houston, and 4-1 in the last five meetings overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Jazz UNDER 195

The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz are two of the most defensive-minded teams in the NBA.  They both have two Defensive Player of the Year candidates at center with Hassan Whiteside for the Heat and Rudy Gobert for the Jazz.  Points will be hard to come by in this one folks.

Utah ranks 25th in the NBA in pace at 98.7 possessions per game.  Miami is 17th in pace at 100.5 possessions per game.  Utah ranks 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 101.0 points per 100 possessions.  But Utah is just 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions, while MIami is 23rd at 101.5 points per 100 possessions.

Miami's defensive efficiency numbers (17th, 103.9) are misleading.  Whiteside has missed five games for the Heat this season.  But since he has returned, they have been dominant on the defensive end.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in four of their last five and an average of just 99.8 points and 41.3% shooting during this stretch.

Miami is 42-23 UNDER as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Heat's last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Jazz last six games playing on two days' rest.  Utah and Miami have combined for 195 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Cavs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers should play in a highly entertaining shootout tonight.  They did in both meetings last season with the home team winning both.  Cleveland won 128-120 for 248 combined points, while Houston won 117-112 for 229 combined points.

The Rockets lost Patrick Beverly, their best defender, and have become even more of an offensive juggernaut this season while taking a step back defensively.  Houston ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.4 points per 100 possessions.

That's bad news for Cleveland, which ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin, giving up 112.4 points per 100 possessions.  But the Cavaliers also remain an offensive juggernaut, ranking 2nd in efficiency while scoring 108.9 points per 100 possessions.  And both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace.

The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four games overall, combining with their opponents for 231, 252, 232 and 243 points in those four games.  That trend continues tonight as this game gets up and OVER the total.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* T'Wolves/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11

The Minnesota Timberwolves are catching too many points on the road to the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I'll gladly scoop up the value here and take the double-digits in a game that will likely go down to the wire.

The Timberwolves are improving rapidly.  It was always going to take some time to implement the new faces in Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford, but it appears the Timberwolves have figured it out.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  And now they come in fresh and ready to go off two days' rest after last playing on Sunday in a 112-94 win over Charlotte.

The Warriors were way overvalued to start the season, going 1-6 ATS in their first seven games.  But they have since gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four, and the betting public is being quick to back them once again.  They have been way overvalued at home, going 1-4 ATS in home games this season with two outright losses to Houston and Detroit.

Minnesota is 20-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 26-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Lakers ESPN Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 211

The Los Angeles Lakers are looking to push the tempo this season.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.3 possessions per game.  They are starting to gel offensively, but they are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The Lakers are averaging 113.5 points per game in their last four.  But they are giving up 107.3 points per game on the season, including 113.0 points per game on the road.  "The chemistry's building," Lonzo Ball said Monday. "We're playing a lot faster, and in half-court we're cutting a lot harder. Guys are knowing where people are at now. It's getting a lot easier."

Now they're up against a young Celtics team that is also firing on all cylinders offensively right now.  The Celtics have scored 101 or more points in each of their last five games.  They have won nine in a row coming in and are averaging 107.7 points per game at home.

Boston is 12-0 OVER in home games after covering five or six of its last seven games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 10-1 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread over the past two seasons.  The OVER is 11-5 in Lakers last 16 road games.  The OVER is 16-5-1 in Celtics last 22 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks just can't get any respect from oddsmakers.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming to the Rockets.  They have gone on the road and beaten the Cavs by 19, while also beating the Nets by 21, Nuggets by 6, Suns by 13 and the Pacers by 7 at home.

Now the Knicks find themselves as home underdogs once again to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a bad matchup for the Hornets, who now have Dwight Howard at center.  Howard isn't going to be able to guard Kristaps Porzingis, who had games of 38, 37 and 40 points all in the span of a week during this stretch.

The Tim Hardaway contract looks good now as he's averaging 16.2 points per game.  Getting Enes Kanter in the Carmelo Anthony trade was also a nice coup.  He is averaging 13.6 points and 11.3 rebounds per game.  And Courtney Lee (10.0 PPG, 41.2% 3-pointers) remains an underrated shooting guard.  The PG-by-committee is working out just fine as well.  This is an underrated lineup.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +10.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS on the season.  They have clearly been overvalued up to this point, and the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  That makes this the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Mavs in the immediate future.

The Washington Wizards are 5-4 this season but just 4-5 ATS.  And three of their five wins came by 5 points or less, so they have only won two games by double-digits.  They aren't blowing teams out on the regular, and I certainly want to fade them in this spot.

The Wizards are overvalued off their 107-96 win in Toronto as 6.5-point dogs on Sunday.  They have now played the Cavs and Raptors in back-to-back games, two of the best teams in the East.  It's going to be hard for them to get up for the Mavericks now tonight.

John Wall is battling a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the Toronto game.  It would be smart of Scott Brooks to give him another day off here against a team like the Mavericks, so while he is questionable it would surprise me if he plays.

The Mavs are in a stretch right now where they will be playing just one game in a seven-day stretch.  They have gotten extra practice time after a brutal schedule to start the season with three back-to-backs already.  That also makes them a 'buy on' team going forward.

"We haven't had a practice in a long time because of the way the schedule has fallen," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told the Dallas Morning News. "That's a very important practice for us, to shore some things up, to work on avoiding the catastrophic turnovers, do a better job of rebounding the ball, those kinds of things."

The Mavericks are 13-1 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Wizards.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Washington is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Washington.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings overall.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226

The Miami Heat have been playing much better defense since Hassan Whiteside returned from a five-game absence due to injury.  Whiteside has played in the last three games, all of which have gone UNDER the total.  He is one of the best shot-blockers in the NBA and doesn't allow many easy  buckets in the paint.

The Heat beat the Bulls 97-91 for 186 combined points, they lost to the Nuggets 94-95 for 189 combined points, and they beat the Clippers 104-101 for 205 combined points.  I think we see a bigger defensive battle than the books are expecting tonight against the Golden State Warriors with this massive 226-point total.

Both meetings between Miami and Golden State went UNDER the total last year.  The Warriors won 107-95 at home over the Heat for just 202 combined points.  The Heat pulled the upset at home 105-102 for 207 combined points.  Asking these teams to get to 227 or more to beat us is asking a lot tonight.

Miami is 13-2 UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 28-15 in all Miami road games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Heat last five games when playing on zero days' rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +1.5

The Brooklyn Nets fit a couple of situations that I like tonight against the Phoenix Suns.  The main reason for the pick is that this is a revenge game.  Brooklyn lost to Phoenix 114-122 at home on October 31st less than a week ago.  So the Nets will be out for revenge and should get it tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are in a very tough spot here.  They are coming off a five-game road trip, and I usually like fading teams in that first game back home following a long trip.  Adding to the tough spot for the Suns is that they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losing 95-112 in San Antonio last night.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for Phoenix.

Meanwhile, the Nets have had two days' rest to get ready for the Suns after last playing on Friday.  So they will be the fresher team.  The Suns had a nice run after making the head coaching change with five straight covers, but their bubble has been burst in their last two with a 13-point loss to the Knicks and that 17-point loss to the Spurs.

Brooklyn is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days.  The Nets are 41-19-2 ATS in their last 62 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Nets Monday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a tough spot here.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back after pulling off the 113-104 upset win over the Los Angeles Clippers yesterday.  They don't have to travel as they will face the Lakers in Staples Center, but I guarantee Memphis players went out and partied last night in Los Angeles and won't be focused for Game 2 of this back-to-back.

The Grizzlies are already banged up with both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol nursing injuries.  Wayne Selden and JaMychal Green are also out with injuries.  Don't be surprised if they play this situation cautiously and at least limit the minutes of both Gasol and Conley.

The Lakers are vastly improved this season.  They have won two of their last three while going 3-0 ATS.  They beat the Pistons 113-93 and the Nets 124-112 at home.  Their only loss came 110-113 in Portland as 6.5-point dogs.  I really like the way this team is playing right now, especially offensively.

The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Lakers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Grizzlies are 1-5-3 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles.  Take the Lakers Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Clippers UNDER 207.5

The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers boast two of the best defensive centers in the NBA.  It's Hassan Whiteside of the Heat up against De'Andre Jordan of the Clippers.  Both guys are going to make it difficult for the opposition to find easy baskets in the paint in this one.

Whiteside missed five straight games for the Heat, and there were some high-scoring games in there.  But he returned for the last two, and it's no surprise we have seen two straight defensive battles from the Heat.  They beat the Bulls 97-91 for 186 combined points and the Nuggets 95-94 for 189 combined points in those two contests.

The Clippers are coming off three straight overs, but that is the reason this line is inflated.  They opened the season with five straight UNDERS, and that's the team that we can expect to see going forward.  The Clippers are built on defense with Jordan and elite PG defender Patrick Beverly leading the way.

Thhe UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Heat and Clipppers.  They have combined for 200 or fewer points in each of those five meetings.  They have averaged just 193 combined points over those five games, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.5.  We are getting a ton of value here on the UNDER as you can see.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS on the season.  They are coming off a 21-point beat down of Dallas and are very healthy right now, plus they've had two days' rest to get ready for the Grizzlies.

Memphis started fast but hit the skids due to injuries.  The Grizzlies lost to both the Hornets and Magic at home in each of their last two games.  Now they are going to have their hands full with one of the best teams they have faced this year in the Clippers.

Mike Conley is dealing with an Achilles injury, though he is supposed to play tonight.  Marc Gasol sat out last game and is questionable to return with an ankle injury.  Wayne Selden missed last game and is questionable with a quad injury.  And JaMychal Green is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.  I just don't see how the Grizzlies can be competitive tonight give their current state.

The Clippers have owned the Grizzlies in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  All four of their wins have come by 9 points or more and by an average of 15.5 points per game.  The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  The Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Take the Clippers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +5.5

The Miami Heat finally returned to near full strength last time out against the Chicago Bulls.  Hassan Whiteside made his return from a five-game absence, and they promptly dispatched the Bulls 97-91.  They had lost their three previous games without Whiteside, though two of those went right down to the wire with a 90-96 loss to the Celtics and a 122-125 (OT) loss to the Timberwolves.

I think with Whiteside back now, this team should get back to playing the way they did in the second half of last year.  They were one of the best teams in the entire NBA in the second half.  And now that they've started the season 0-5-2 ATS, they are grossly undervalued right now because the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Heat.

And I love the spot here fading the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are coming off a huge 129-111 home win over the Raptors.  So they were already going to be in a letdown spot, but now they're also in a lookahead spot with an even bigger game coming up tomorrow against the Golden State Warriors.  The Nuggets won't be giving the Heat the full attention that they deserve to be able to cover this lofty 5.5-point spread.

Miami is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Roll with the Heat Friday.

15* Cavs/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 221

The Washington Wizards have been lighting up the scoreboard this season.  They are averaging 112.3 points per game while ranking 5th in offensive efficiency.  But they are also giving up 108.1 points per game and just allowed 122 to the Phoenix Suns last time out.

The Wizards will have their way with a Cleveland Cavaliers team that has really been struggling on the defensive end.  The Cavs allow 111.9 points per game while ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 111.3 points per 100 possessions.

And now the Cavaliers lost their best defender in Tristan Thompson to a 3-4 week calf injury last time out.  So that means they are going to have to go even smaller with Jamison Crowder taking Thompson's place.  And they have to go small anyways to match up with Washington's elite small-ball starting 5 lineup.

This has the makings of an up-tempo, shootout, and that has been the case the last two times these teams got together.  The Cavs beat the Wizards 140-135 in Washington, while the Wizards won 127-115 in Cleveland in their final two meetings of 2016-17.

The OVER is 23-11 in Cavs' last 34 games overall.  The OVER is 27-9 in Cavs' last 36 games following a loss.  The OVER is 12-2 in Cavs' last 14 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The OVER is 9-2 in Cavs' last 11 Friday games.  The OVER is 10-1 in Wizards' last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Washington.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Golden State -7

We're getting the Golden State Warriors at a discount tonight due to their poor start to the season against the spread.  They have been a bigger favorite than this in seven of their eight games thus far.  They have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

But they got right with a 141-113 win over the Los Angeles Clippers as 6-point road favorites on Monday.  They have since had two days off to get ready for the Spurs and build off their best performance of the season thus far.  The end of October used to be the traditional start to the NBA season, so head coach Steve Kerr simply acted as if he were back in his playing days when he spoke to his team.

"That looked like us," Kerr said. "I told the guys that tomorrow is Halloween, which means that (Monday) was opening night. Training camp is over, so we're back to being us."

"Our defense and our turnovers have been kind of our Achilles' heel so far," Stephen Curry said. "Scoring the ball hasn't been a problem. It's just the other things we need to do to be a well-rounded team and the team we expect to be. (Against the Clippers), our defensive effort got us to where we wanted to be, and we kind of controlled the game from the start. We took care of the basketball -- we played Warriors basketball, and now we have to sustain it."

San Antonio just lost three straight games on the road to Orlando (87-114), Indiana (94-97) and Boston (94-108).  The Spurs are really struggling right now with all of their new faces due to the injuries to Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker and Joffrey Lauvergne.  All three will miss this game against tonight, and the Spurs just have no chance of even being competitive against the Warriors without them.

We saw that play out in the playoffs last year.  Leonard was injured in the 111-113 Game 1 loss to the Warriors.  They were promptly swept as he missed the rest of the series, losing by 36 in Game 2, by 12 in Game 3 and by 14 in Game 4.  I see no way this isn't a double-digit victory in the Warriors' favor tonight.

Golden State is 55-32 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  I like backing them a lot more in this role than the double-digit role they have been so far this season.  Roll with the Warriors Thursday.

20* Mavs/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 205

The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers both prefer to play at a slow tempo.  The Mavericks rank 28th in pace at 97.4 possessions per game, while the Clippers are 17th at 100 possessions per game.

The Clippers were the top team in defensive efficiency before playing the Warriors last time out, losing 113-141.  That skewed all of their numbers.  The Clippers had had allowed an average of just 92.4 points per game and no team had shot better than 43% against them until the Warriors hung 141 points and shot 58.4%.

Now the Clippers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder defensively after that awful performance.  They'll be up against a Mavericks team that is struggling to find easy buckets.  The Mavs rank 23rd in offensive efficiency and are scoring just 98.2 points per game on the season, including 90.3 points per game on the road.  And now they may be missing rookie first-round pick Dennis Smith at point guard, who is questionable.

The Clippers are 48-26 UNDER as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a terrible team (winning 25% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 23-5 (82.1%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Nuggets -1

The Denver Nuggets are have faced a rough schedule in the early going with five of their first seven games at home.  After a 3-4 start, they'll be motivated to get it turned around.  They have an excellent chance to do just that as a six-game homestand starts with Wednesday's tilt against the Toronto Raptors.

The Raptors are in the midst of a tough road trip of their own and it may start catching up to them sooner rather than later.  They have played four straight games out West against the Spurs, Warriors, Lakers and Blazers.  After winning their last two, they come into this game overvalued.

Denver is going to want revenge from two losses to the Raptors by a combined 5 points last season.  They lost 102-105 on the road, and 111-113 at home.  But the Nuggets covered the spread in both games and are now 27-13 ATS in their last 40 meetings with the Raptors.  Look for them to have their revenge at home tonight.

The Nuggets are 28-16 ATS off a loss over the last two seasons.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a tough spot here Wednesday.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 91-110 at home to the Thunder last night.  Now they have to travel to Charlotte and face an upstart Hornets team that has been playing better since getting healthy.

The Hornets were missing several key pieces early in the season, but they are healthy outside of Nic Batum now.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games, beating the Nuggets by 17 and the Magic by 7 at home, while also upsetting the Grizzlies by 5 on the road as 5.5-point dogs.

And you can bet the Hornets will be ready for this game.  They have had a day off to get ready for a rematch with the Bucks after losing to them 94-103 in Milwaukee on October 23rd just a week ago.  They let that game get away from them in the closing minutes as they actually led most the way.  Look for them to avenge that loss tonight.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Pistons/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Detroit Pistons have been grossly undervalued up to this point.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their first seven games to start the season.  I may be looking to back this team in the near future, but right now is not the time.

The Pistons are now overvalued here laying 4.5 points on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers.  They are getting a lot of love now thanks to back-to-back road wins over the Clippers and Warriors.  Off those two monster wins, this is now a massive letdown spot for the Pistons after beating the defending champs.

The Lakers have lost back-to-back games to the Raptors and Jazz and are not getting much love in the markets because of it.  But they have had two days off coming into this game, while the Pistons will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, giving the Lakers the advantage in rest and preparation as well.

Plays against favorites (DETROIT) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Detroit is 0-8 ATS in road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 33% or fewer of their attempts over the last two seasons.  They are losing these games by a whopping 17.3 points per game on average.  Detroit is 3-13 ATS off two more more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +8

The Utah Jazz are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going.  They opened the season by going 3-0 ATS in their first three games with home wins over Denver and Oklahoma City, and a road win at Minnesota.  That quick start has them overvalued.

The Jazz have come back down to reality since.  They have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games. They lost by 16 on the road to the Clippers, and by 9 on the road to the Suns.  They did beat the Lakers by 15 at home, but the Lakers were playing the second of a back-to-back.

Conversely, the Mavs are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start.  They weren't very competitive in their first four games, but their last three have been a different story.  They beat Memphis 103-94 at home, only lost 91-96 in Memphis as 5-point dogs, and only lost 110-112 at home to the 76ers.  Now they are catching 8 points against the Jazz in a game that is likely to go down to the wire.

Three of the last six meetings between Utah and Dallas have gone to overtime, which just shows you how close this series has been.  And the Mavs have only lost once by more than 5 points to the Jazz in their last seven meetings.

Dallas is 32-16 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the past three seasons.  Utah is 0-9 ATS in home games after covering four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +6.5

It's amazing that two teams from different conferences will be meeting for a second time this early in the season.  But that's the scenario we have here as the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Houston Rockets for a rematch.

The Rockets won the first meeting 105-104 as 3-point road favorites over the 76ers.  Eric Gordon hit the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Rockets the win.  You can bet the 76ers are going to want their revenge tonight as they'll be the more motivated team, which is why I like getting 6.5 points with them in the rematch.

This 76ers team is coming off three straight covers and is playing very well right now.  They won 87-76 in Detroit and 112-110 in Dallas before and after that game against Houston.  The Rockets have been overvalued quite a bit, going 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, including an 89-103 loss in Memphis last time out.  Injuries have been a big problem for them as Chris Paul remains out, while Gordon is questionable today.

Mike D'Antoni is 5-15 ATS off two straight road games as the coach of Houston.  D'Antoni is 2-12 ATS in home games versus good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game as the coach of Houston.  The 76ers are 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 vs. Western Conference opponents. 

Philadelphia is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The 76ers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.   Houston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Orlando Magic are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-1 start to the season.  They are coming off a home win over the short-handed San Antonio Spurs and are now in a massive letdown spot off that big win.

The Charlotte Hornets have dealt with injuries of their own, but they are starting to get healthy outside of Nic Batum.  And this is one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in my opinion.  They should be laying more than 3 points at home to the Magic here.

The Hornets simply own the Magic.  They have won seven straight meetings while going 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The last three meetings in Charlotte have resulted in double-digit blowout victories by 40, 21 and 14 points.  Expect more of the same in their first meeting of 2017.  Bet the Hornets Sunday.

15* Pistons/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 208

The Los Angeles Clippers are more of a defensive team now that they swapped out Chris Paul for Patrick Beverly.  Their offense doesn't run as efficiently because Beverly is not a scorer and they lost Jamaal Crawford, so this team is hanging hats on defense led by Beverly and DeAndre Jordan.

The Clippers currently rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 91.9 points per 100 possessions, which is 4 points less per game than 2nd-place Boston.  And the Clippers aren't playing with much tempo offensively, ranking 19th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game.

Detroit also prefers to play at a slower tempo ranking 17th in pace at 99.9 possessions per game.  And the Pistons also are a team that relies on defense more than offense, ranking 14th in defensive efficiency at 102.7 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The head-to-head numbers also favor the UNDER.  The Pistons and Clippers have combined for 205 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last six meetings, making for a perfect 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 208.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - team who made 6 or more 3 point shots/game last season, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 46-15 (75.4%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 203

The Utah Jazz have been an UNDER machine this season, and we'll continue riding their unders here against the Los Angeles Lakers.  This total of 203 has clearly been inflated and I think there is still value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in all Jazz games this season.  The reason for that is the Jazz rank 28th in pace this season, averaging just 97.3 possessions per game.  The Jazz rank 8th in defensive efficiency but just 26th in offensive efficiency.  The loss of Gordon Hayward makes this team even more of a worse offensive unit than last year, and they are probably even better off defensively.

The Lakers have been held to 92 or fewer points at the end of regulation in three of their five games this season. They have played well defensively in their last two games, giving up 99 points to the Wizards in OT and 101 points to the Raptors.  And they played Toronto last night, meaning their be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  It will hurt them more offensively than defensively.

The head-to-head history also favors the UNDER.  The Lakers and Jazz have combined for 202 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 203.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1

The Houston Rockets are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  They are a tired team right now, and making matters worse is that they are without two starters in Chris Paul and Trevor Ariza, as well as key bench player Nene Hilario.

The Memphis Grizzlies had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Grizzlies are 4-1 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  One of those wins came 98-90 in Houston as 8-point dogs as well.

So this will be a revenge game for the Rockets, but I don't think the revenge factor outweighs the tough spot for the Rockets with the no rest and the injuries.  And the Grizzlies are only 1-point favorites here, so they only need to win the game to cover.

Plays on home favorites (MEMPHIS) - marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games, vs. division opponents are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.  The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season tonight.  They have opened 0-3 with two road losses to Oklahoma City and Boston, and a blown 20-point lead in a 107-111 home loss to the Detroit Pistons.

But the Knicks have had plenty of time to practice and get ready for this game against the Nets.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here tonight.  And they are very healthy with only Jaokim Noah out right now.

The same cannot be said for the Nets, who are going to be playing without their two best guards in D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin.  The Nets have played five games already and will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. 

This is a massive letdown spot for these young Nets, who are coming off an upset 112-107 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 8-point dogs.  The Nets have gone 3-0 at home, but they're 0-2 on the road with losses to the Pacers and Magic.  The Knicks are good enough to beat them here, especially given the spot advantages with the rest and letdown for Brooklyn.

The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in home games off a road loss to a division rival over the last three seasons.  They are actually winning by 9.0 points per game on average in this spot.  New York is 15-3 ATS in home games off a division game over the last three years.  Brooklyn is 13-27 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last three years.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3

The Houston Astros are way overvalued right now.  They lost 90-98 as 8-point home favorites against Memphis, and hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat the 76ers 105-104 as 3-point road favorites.  They failed to cover in both games, and they'll fail to do so again here on the road against the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a Hornets team that I expect to be a sleeper in the East.  They have gone 2-0 at home, beating the Hawks by 18 and the Nuggets by 17.  And they haven't even been fully healthy.  But they got two key pieces back from injury in Malik Monk and Michael Gidd-Gilchrist prior to the Nuggets game, and they will be a dangerous team moving forward.

The Rockets are far from healthy, and they lost a lot of their depth when they traded for Chris Paul while losing Lou Williams and Patrick Beverly to the Clippers.  So far, so good for the 4-0 Clippers.  And now Paul is out for a few weeks with a knee injury.  Fellow starter Trevor Ariza is out with a foot injury, and they really miss him because he's their best defender and a great 3-point shooter.  And key bench player Nene Hilario is doubtful tonight with an Achilles injury.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - off a road win by 3 points or less are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Houston is 9-20 ATS off a road win over the last two years.  The Hornets are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the Hornets Friday.

15* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are likely to be without their best player in Anthony Davis for this game.  Davis suffered a knee injury that forced him out after five minutes against the Blazers last time out, and the Pelicans went on to lose that game 93-103.

I keep wanting to fade the Pelicans because Alvin Gentry called DeMarcus Cousins their best 3-point shooter.  That just shows the lack of shooting on this team.  And you'll hear a lot about Cousins wanting revenge on his former team leading up to this game, but what about Buddy Hield for the Kings?  He'll want the same thing against the Pelicans.

The Pelicans are 1-3 this season, but all three losses came by 8 points or more.  The Kings are also 1-3, but two of their losses came by 2 and 5 points.  I just don't know what the Pelicans are going to be able to do without Davis, especially against an improved Kings defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game this season.  The Pelicans give up a ridiculous 111.5 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team has won three straight, and the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Sacramento is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a loss to a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 6-18-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

15* Celtics/Bucks TNT Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Boston +4.5

The Boston Celtics don't have to wait long for their shot at revenge against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They lost to the Bucks 108-100 at home on October 18th just a week ago.  But that was an awful spot for the Celtics as they were coming off a 99-102 loss to the Cavs the night before on opening night, and they were still reeling emotionally from the season-ending injury to Gordon Hayward.

Now the Celtics have had some time to get off the loss of Hayward and have really shown some nice fight in two games since.  They beat the 76ers 102-92 as 3-point road dogs next time out, then crushed New York 110-89 as 7-point home favorites on Tuesday.  The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they've had plenty of practice time to fine-tune things moving forward.

The Bucks are 3-1 this season but are overvalued because of it.  They barely beat the Blazers 113-110 at home, and needed a huge finish to the fourth quarter to pull away from the Hornets for a 103-94 victory.  They had lost to the Cavs 97-116 at home the game before, and I can't give them much credit for their win over the Celtics given the tough spot for Boston.

Home-court advantage hasn't meant much in this series.  The road team has won three of the last four meetings straight up.  And the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The underdog is also 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. 

Jason Kidd is 11-29 ATS in home games after winning two of their last three games as the coach of Milwaukee.  Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games against Central Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games off two consecutive wins against division opponents.  Take the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER 196.5

This is one of my favorite situations to take an UNDER in the NBA.  This is the classic home-and-home situation.  Memphis played in Dallas last night, and now Dallas has to play in Memphis tonight.  Teams get familiar with one another in these situations, and points are harder to come by in the rematch as a result.

Last night the Grizzlies and Mavs combined for 197 points in a 103-94 Dallas victory.  Now we are getting a total of 196.5, and if my theory is correct, we'll easily cash the UNDER as this game is sure to be more low scoring than the first meeting.  And both teams shot well last night as the Mavs shot 48.6% and made 11 3-pointers, while the Grizzlies shot 45.8% and made 12 3-pointers.  Don't expect either to shoot that well again.

This head-to-head series has been very low scoring recently as it is.  The Mavs and Grizzlies have combined for 197 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  And they have averaged just 187.2 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.  So we are getting that 9 points of value even before you factor in this perfect UNDER situation with the home-and-home.

Memphis is 16-6 to the UNDER in it home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 22-7-2 in Mavericks last 31 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Mavericks last 28 games following a straight up win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Wizards/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

The Los Angeles Lakers didn't take too kindly to Marcin Gortat's tweet that John Wall 'will torture' Lonzo Ball tonight.  Look for them to be playing with a little more spirit than usual tonight when these two meet in L.A. on ESPN.

"Yeah, of course we did," Ingram said when asked if he saw Gortat's tweet on Monday. "Everyone has social media, definitely saw it. The competitor in Lonzo, of course he didn't take it so well and, with his teammates behind him, we didn't take it so well."

I think the Wizards are overvalued here due to their 3-0 start to the season.  But they could easily be 0-3 as their wins over the 76ers (by 5), Pistons (by 4) and Nuggets (by 5) all came by 5 points or less.  And that fact alone shows that we are getting some serious value with the Lakers as 7-point dogs.

Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after three or more consecutive wins are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Phoenix Suns made the coaching change and send Eric Bledsoe home and promptly won their first game of the season.  It's like clockwork when a team makes a coaching change that they are going to play well in that first game.  And I look for the Suns to continue playing well tonight.

The Suns are undervalued right now due to their slow start to the season.  They are catching a whopping 7 points at home tonight against the Utah Jazz.  You look at the lines for their previous three home games and you can see how we're getting value here.  They were 2.5-point dogs to the Blazers, 3.5-point favorites over the Lakers, and 2-point dogs to the Kings.

Conversely, the Jazz are overvalued due to their 3-1 ATS start this season.  But the Jazz are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an 84-102 loss in Los Angeles last night.  They used a lot of energy cutting the deficit to single-digits in the fourth quarter last night, but ran out of gas in the final few minutes.  They won't have a whole lot left in the tank here to put away the Suns by more than 7 points.

All three meetings between Utah and Phoenix were decided by 7 points or less last season.  The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Jazz are 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest.  Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +5

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' situation in the NBA.  We'll sell high on the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-0 on the season, and buy low on the Dallas Mavericks, who are 0-4 on the season and still in search of their first victory.

The Mavericks will be highly motivated for that first win tonight.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are in a massive letdown spot off back-to-back upset victories over the Warriors and Rockets.  They won't show up tonight.

"We've got to scratch and claw our way out of this," head coach Rick Carlisle said. "There's no other way. Our disposition has to pick up. We have to be totally together. We're missing a couple guys, but we have enough to win with what we have. Everybody's got to dig deep."

The Mavericks have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Grizzlies.  Plays against favorites (MEMPHIS) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after three or more consecutive wins are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199.5

The Utah Jazz are going to remain a great UNDER bet until oddsmakers catch up with them.  They are 2-0-1 to the UNDER htis season, averaging just 99.7 points per game on offense and giving up 94.3 points per game on defense.

The reasons the Jazz are such a good UNDER bet this year is because they lost their best scorer in Gordon Hayward, and they're still built around defense, but even more so this year.  This is a team that consistently ranks toward the bottom of the league in pace and toward the top of the league in defensive efficiency.

That has been the case again this season.  The Jazz rank dead last in pace at 96.6 possessions per game.  But they are 7th in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Clippers are now built to play a similar style to the Jazz, swapping out elite point guard Chris Paul for the defense-first minded Patrick Beverly.  It's no surprise that they are leading the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.6 points per 100 possessions despite playing two up-tempo teams in the Suns and Lakers.

And the head-to-head series really favors the UNDER tonight.  The Jazz are clippers have combined for 195 or fewer points in five of their last seven meetings.  And like I said, they were two teams that were much better offensively prior to this season. 

The Clippers are 8-0 UNDER in home games after leading their last two games by 10-plus points at the half over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 12-3 to the UNDER when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4.5

The Portland Trail Blazers get to play their first home game tonight after an impressive three-game road trip to open the season.  They won 124-76 in Phoenix, 114-96 in Indiana and lost 110-113 at Milwaukee.

They will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd here tonight as they have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  Fans are excited about this team that made a huge run in the second half last year to make the playoffs after trading for Jusuf Nurkic.

The Pelicans have opened 1-2 with a 91-103 loss in Memphis, a 120-128 home loss to Golden State and a 119-112 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This team is so limited in the shooting department as DeMarcus Cousins in their best 3-point shooter.  They are fade material because of their lack of shooting, and the big names on the roster have them consistently overvalued.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Blazers have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 home meetings with the Pelicans.  And they only have to cover 4.5 points here, which is too low.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* Nuggets/Wizards NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -3

The Denver Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  Their roster is absolutely loaded and they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA.  And they got better in the offseason by swapping defensive liability Danilo Gallinari out for veteran Paul Millsap and his elite defending and scoring skills.

The Nuggets blew a double-digit lead and lost in Utah in their opener.  But they bounced back with a 96-79 home win over the Kings in their home opener.  And now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and will be ready for the Wizards.

The Wizards have been extremely shaky despite playing two home games against two sub-par Eastern Conference teams.  They only won 120-115 over the 76ers as 6.5-point favorites, and also failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites over the Pistons in a 115-111 win.  They have a good starting lineup, but their bench is one of the worst in the NBA, and now they'll be without two key pieces in Markieff Morris and Jason Smith tonight.

The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Washington is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have played a brutal schedule in the early going and have gotten through it at 2-1.  They won in Boston, lost at home to Cleveland, and beat Portland at home.  Now they finally get a bit of a break here against the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a Hornets team I think will be good when healthy, but that's not the case right now.  They are missing two starters in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and they are missing two of their first players off the bench in Malik Monk and Cody Zeller.

The Hornets lost 90-102 in their only road game in Detroit.  Then they had to erase a halftime deficit with a huge second half to beat the lowly Atlanta Hawks at home.  The Hawks may be the worst team in the NBA this season. This is a big step up in class for the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Charlotte is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Central division opponents.  The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  Take the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I'm taking the Milwaukee Bucks to bounce back from their loss to the Cavaliers last night.  They let that game get away in the second half.  They have played a brutal schedule already, facing two of the best teams in the East.  They beat the Celtics on the road before losing to the Cavs last night.

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting way too much respect from the books after back-to-back blowout road wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Suns and Pacers.  But now they have to take a big step up in competition here and will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  The Bucks should be favored by more here.

The Bucks clearly match up well with the Blazers.  They have won four of the last five meetings, including a season sweep last year.  And they've gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Plays on favorites (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8.5

I think the Memphis Grizzlies are getting overlooked in the Western Conference this season.  This is always a gritty team that will fight for every possession.  And I think getting rid of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen was the right move to go younger and more athletic, which will allow them to play a little more up tempo when they want to.

The Grizzlies opened with a nice 103-91 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, holding them to 38% shooting to prove that their defense is still elite.  And they've now had two days off to get ready for Golden State, which is a huge advantage.

Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back here after winning 128-120 in New Orleans last night.  So that gives these teams a common opponent already, and the Grizzlies can clearly hang with the Warriors given their results.

Last year, Memphis actually won its first two meetings with Golden State.  The Grizzlies won 110-89 as 13-point home dogs, and 128-119 as 13.5-point road dogs.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves lost their opener 99-107 at San Antonio.  They went cold down the stretch.  Now they head back to Minnesota for their first home game, and it will be a great environment as these fans have something to be excited about for the first time in a long time.

The Timberwolves are a legit contender in the Western Conference now.  They added Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson and pair then with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns.  You would be hard-pressed to find many better starting lineups than this one.

The Utah Jazz come in overvalued after their 106-96 home win over Denver.  The Jazz erased a double-digit lead and started needed a 28-13 fourth quarter to win that game.  I'm not very high on this Jazz team with a loss of Gordon Hayward.  There just isn't much talent on this team outside of Rudy Gobert.

The Timberwolves are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Cavs/Bucks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Milwaukee +3

The Milwaukee Bucks have the talent to give the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money in the East this season.  Now they want to prove that right away as they get to host the Cavs tonight, and I like the value we are getting with them as home dogs here.

The great thing about this game is that both teams have a common opponent in their opener to compare to.  The Cavs only beat the Celtics 102-99 at home, while the Bucks beat the Celtics 108-100 on the road.  Now they have a shot to get to 2-0 against the two teams that made the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

"I think we're capable of doing big things this year," Giannis Antetokounmpo said. "We've just got to stay focused, stay grounded ... and try to have the same mentality. We're the underdogs. We're not a big-market team, we're not a big team, we're young, so we've just got to play with a chip on our shoulder and hopefully this season we can be one of the best teams in the East."

In four meetings with the Cavs last season, the Bucks were only outscored by a combined 7 points.  They won their first home meeting 118-101 last year and lost the other in overtime.  Cleveland is 13-26 ATS vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* Knicks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +12.5

The hype on the Oklahoma City Thunder right now has them overvalued coming into the season.  They traded for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, which gives them a Big 3 with Russell Westbrook.  But it's going to take some time for these guys to gel, and they now have no depth on the bench because of these trades.  Two of the first guys off the bench will be Pattrick Patterson and Raymond Felton, and both are questionable with injuries tonight.

The Knicks come into the season getting no love from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, which is kind of a perfect storm here.  But they do have some nice depth now with the additions of Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott.  They also have Kyle O'Quinn and Michael Beasley coming off the bench.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis and Courtney Lee are all underrated players in my book.  And rookie PG Frank Ntilikina has some veterans behind him in Ramon Sessions and Jarrett Jack to help him along.  Willy Hernangomez is a worker at center who averaged 8.2 points and 7.0 rebounds last season in only 18.4 minutes per game.  He will get double the minutes and double the production this season.

Each of the last five meetings between the Knicks and Thunder have been decided by 11 points or less.  This 12.5-point spread is clearly inflated tonight given the perception of these teams coming into the season.  Roll with the Knicks Thursday.

15* Blazers/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +2

The Phoenix Suns enter the 2017 season undervalued as many picked them to finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference.  And while last year was a growing year for their young team, they plan on having a lot more structure this season and taking major strides.

They even rested their best player Eric Bledsoe for the final 16 games last season to try and preserve his knee.  Now they enter 2017 fully healthy and ready to make some progress.  I love the backcourt of Bledsoe, Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis.  Marquese Chriss and TJ Warren continue to improve, and rookie Josh Jackson will bring some much-needed defense to this lineup.  Tyson Chandler remains an eraser and leader inside.

I think the Blazers come into 2017 a bit overvalued due to the way they finished last season.  One key here is that CJ McCollum is going to miss this game due to a suspension from the preseason.  McCollum averaged 23 points per game last season and is one of the most underrated guards in the NBA.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Nuggets +2.5

The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of my favorite teams to back this season.  They were one of the hottest teams over the second half last season and barely missed the playoffs.  Their roster is loaded, and it got even better in the offseason.

One key addition came in the form of Paul Millsap. The All-Star forward left the Atlanta Hawks to sign with Denver in free agency. Paired alongside center Nikola Jokic, Millsap promises to give the Nuggets some extra juice on both offense and defense in the frontcourt.

Millsap put up a career-best average of 18.1 points and also collected 7.7 rebounds for the Hawks a season ago. He agreed to a three-year, $90 million deal with Denver over the summer, and he gives the Nuggets a veteran leader who should mesh well with a talented, young core.

Millsap's presence will only make Jokic more dangerous and even tougher to defend. Over Denver's final 28 games last season, Jokic averaged 18.7 points, 12 rebounds and 6.1 assists.

The Utah Jazz are a team I'm not very high on this season.  Losing George Hill and Gordon Hayward will be too much for this team to overcome.  Now a starting lineup that features Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio will not be nearly as dangerous in 2017.  I think Gobert is a great young player, but the rest of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired.

Denver is 44-25 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games when playing on three or more days' rest.  Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Wizards ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +7

The Philadelphia 76ers are a team on the rise this season.  They now have a healthy Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and one of the most talented rosters in the league.  We will back them every chance we get as long as they're healthy.

The 76ers also boast the No. 1 overall pick in Markelle Fultz.  They made a great move to get J.J. Redick this season for a sniper from 3-point range.  And both forwards Dario Saric and Robert Covington are two of the more underrated players in the league.

Many expect the Wizards to be one of the contenders in the East.  And while their starting lineup is certainly capable of that label, they have one of the worst depth situations in the NBA.  And now Markieff Morris is going to miss time with a groin injury.

Philadelphia is 49-30 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Wizards are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors 2017 NBA Season Opener on Houston +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs mopped the floor with the Golden State Warriors by 40 points in the opener last season.  The Warriors come in overvalued once again this season after winning the title last year.  They are now 9.5-point favorites against the Rockets.

Opening night is certainly a distraction for teams who are coming off a title.  They get their banner hung and receive their rings.  It makes them reflect on last season, and not focus on the present.  Meanwhile, it motivates the opponent.  And that opponent this time around is one that will push the Warriors this season.

Indeed, the Rockets are the second-best team in the NBA this season in my opinion.  They were already the second-best team in the West last year, then they traded for Chris Paul, making an already potent lineup almost unstoppable.  This is the perfect fit for Paul because he doesn't have to have the ball in his hands 100% of the time like he did with the Clippers.  And he's a great spot up shooter. 

Defending BOTH Paul and Harden in the pick and roll will give opposing defenses headaches all season.  And the shooters around these two are tremendous with Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon.  Plus they have both Clint Capela and Nene Hilario to do the dirty work inside.  I really like this team a lot, and I think you'll see why in Game 1 tonight.

Mike D'Antoni is 14-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Houston.  The Rockets won 132-127 as 11-point dogs and only lost 98-107 as 8.5-point dogs in their two trips to Golden State last season.  They will have a shot to win this game in the closing seconds as well.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 231

Oddsmakers have over-adjusted here due to three straight overs cashing in the NBA Finals.  We saw a 221-point total for Game 2, and now we're seeing a 231-point total for Game 5.  This 10-point adjustment means that there is clearly value on the UNDER.

And there are more reasons to like the UNDER for Game 5.  As a series goes on, teams become more and more familiar with one another.  And that's the case here.  I think after the Cavs won Game 4 to extend this series, there will be a tightness about this game for both squads.

And I think that favors the UNDER as both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively, while the Warriors will be tight on offense trying to win a championship, and the Cavs as well trying to avoid elimination.  Neither team will be playing and shooting as freely as they have up to this point in the series.

Cleveland is 18-4 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 8-1 to the UNDER after allowing 105 or more points in three straight games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Warriors last 12 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -6

The Golden State Warriors just took the life out of the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  They came back from a 6-point deficit in the final three minutes, outscoring the Warriors 11-0 to close the game and win 118-113.

The Cavs thought they had the game won and couldn't close, and now their state of mind is that they're beaten.  I expect the Cavs to come out and try in the first half, but once the Warriors get ahead, I think they will quit fighting and just except their fate.

Conversely, the Warriors will be more motivated than ever to win this game.  They can be the first team in NBA history to go 16-0 in the playoffs.  And what sweet revenge that would be to sweep the Cavs a year after blowing a 3-1 deficit to them.  Simply put, the Warriors are going to want this game more.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS off a home loss this season.  Golden State is 7-0 ATS in all playoff road games this season.  The Warriors are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  The Cavs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Friday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 227

The last game between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers was an aberration.  Cleveland tried to push the tempo, and it didn't work.  As a result, they lost 113-132 to the Warriors for 245 combined points.  Look for the Cavs to slow it down at home n Game 3, which is their best shot to beat the Warriors.

Before last game, the UNDER was 7-2-1 in the previous 10 meetings.  The Cavs and Warriors had combined for 217 or fewer points in all 10 of those games.  They had averaged 204.0 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is 23 points less than tonight's posted total of 227.

The Warriors have been much less efficient in the fast break on the road this season.  They are scoring 7 fewer fast break points per game on the road this season than they are at home.  They won't get nearly as many easy looks in Cleveland as they have in these first two games.

Golden State's defense continues to be superb.  It has held the Cavs to just 97.4 points per 100 possessions through two games.  The Cavs came into the NBA Finals averaging 120 points per 100 possessions thus far in the playoffs.  The Warriors have allowed just 98.8 points per 100 possessions through the playoffs to this point.

Cleveland is 18-3 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Warriors last 26 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER would be 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series with a total set of 218 or higher, and this total is 227.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Wednesday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Warriors UNDER 221

Oddsmakers continue to set the totals too high when the Warriors and Cavs get together.  They adjusted down to 221 for Game 2, but it's simply not low enough.  These teams know each other all too well after playing in three straight NBA Finals, and that familiarity makes points harder to come by.

The UNDER is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to Game 1 of the NBA Finals last season.  The Cavs and Warriors have combined for 217 or fewer points in all 10 of those games, which is a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 221.  They have averaged just 204.0 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is 17 points less than this total.

The Warriors are 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  They held the Cavs to just 34.9% shooting in Game 1 and won't let off the gas here in Game 2.  The Cavs have stepped up their defense in the playoffs and actually played well on that end in Game 1, limiting the Warriors to 42.5% shooting.

Cleveland is 9-1 to the UNDER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Cavs are 10-1 to the UNDER vs. a team with a winning percentage above 70% over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. good shooting teams who make 48% of their shots or better over the last three years.  The UNDER is 9-1-2 in the last 12 meetings at Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -7

The Golden State Warriors have waited basically a full calendar year for their shot at revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They blew a 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals and lost a tight Game 7 at the wire.  They will get their revenge in this series, starting with Game 1 Thursday night.

The Warriors have upgraded their team since last season, adding a Top 5 player in Kevin Durant, making them virtually unstoppable.  They now have four All-Stars against Cleveland's three in James, Love and Irving.  And the Warriors still have good depth with Andre Iguodala, Ian Clark, JaVale McGee, Zaza Pachulia, Shaun Livingtston, David West and Patrick McCaw all playing significant minutes.

The difference in this series is defense.  The Warriors ranked 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season, while the Cavs ranked 22nd.  And the Warriors have 'Lebron stoppers' in Green and Iguodala, plus Thompson and Durant can hold their own against James when asked to.  No team is better equipped to stop Lebron than Golden State is.

Golden State is now 27-1 SU in its last 28 games, and 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall.  The Warriors have won nine straight games by double-digits in these players.  The Cavs come from the weak East, and even benefited from injuries the past two series to the opposing team's best players in Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas.  They will get exposed in Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* Cavs/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston +10.5

The Boston Celtics have voiced their frustration through the media about how disappointed they were in letting down their home fans in the first two games of this series.  They want to make amends and give a big effort tonight in Game 5 and go out swinging.

And the Celtics have given the Cavs trouble the past two games without Isaiah Thomas.  They have opened up their offense with a lot more passing, and it has worked.  They won Game 3 and actually held a double-digit lead at halftime of Game 4 before the Cavs pulled away in the second half for a 112-99 victory.  They only lost by 13 on the road despite the Cavs shooting 59.5% from the field for the game.

Boston is 10-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Thursday.

20* Celtics/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Boston +15.5

The oddsmakers made a huge adjustment after the Celtics lost the first two games of this series by double-digits.  They were 17-point dogs in Game 3 and won outright.  Now they're still 15-point dogs in Game 4, and it's still too big of an adjustment.  The Celtics will stay within the number and give the Cavs another run for their money tonight.

The Cavaliers even shot 14-of-22 from 3-point range in the first half and STILL didn't beat the Celtics.  It's unlikely that they shoot as well as they did again in Game 4, which bodes well for the Celtics covering this 15-point spread.

And the Celtics actually moved the ball perhaps better than any game they had all season, which got everyone involved without Isaiah Thomas.  They had six players score at least 10 points, and sharing the basketball will be the focal point heading into Game 4 as well.

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS off a home loss this season.  Boston is 10-2 ATS in road games against Central division opponents this season.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Cleveland.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

25* NBA Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Spurs UNDER 218

The over is 3-0 in the first three games of this series between the Warriors and Spurs.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set their highest total of the series in Game 4.  This total has been set at 218 after totals of 211.5, 209.5 and 215 in the first three games of the series.  There is clearly value on the UNDER in Game 4.

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in San Antonio.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 208 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings in San Antonio.  They have averaged just 191.3 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 218.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Monday.

20* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston +17

The oddsmakers have been forced to set a ridiculous number in Game 3 because they know the betting public will want to continue backing the Cavs at any price.  After all, the Cavs are 10-0 in the playoffs and have gone 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, so the public isn't going to stop backing them.

But this is simply too big of an adjustment.  The Cavaliers aren't 17 points better than the Celtics at home, even with Isaiah Thomas out for the rest of the playoffs.  These players had Thomas' back when he lost his sister, and now they'll rally for him and give a big effort in Game 3.

The Celtics were embarrassed by 44 points in Game 2.  This is a prideful team that won't want to go out like that.  They aren't going to quit, and in fact I think it will be the Cavaliers that relax a bit in Game 3.  They know they don't have to deal with Thomas so they won't be as focused, especially off their 44-point victory.

Boston is 9-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  The Celtics are 14-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons.  The road team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game Sunday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 3 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214

The first two games in this series have gone over the total with ease.  Now the betting public is all over the over in Game 3, but I see it playing out much differently.  With their season basically on the line tonight, the Spurs will fight, and that will come out more on the defensive end than anything.

And the Spurs are going to be without leading scorer Kawhi Leonard again for Game 3.  They only managed 100 points on 37% shooting without him in Game 2.  The Warriors couldn't miss, shooting 56.2% for the game with 18 made 3-pointers. That is unlikely to happen again as well.

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.  In fact, the Spurs and Warriors have combined for 208 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings in San Antonio.  They have averaged just 187.2 combined points per game in those nine games, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.