15* NBA Playoffs Game 3 No-Brainer on Indiana Pacers +5

The Indiana Pacers came scary close to stealing a game or two in Chicago in the first two meetings of this series. Coming home, the Pacers will get that taste of victory tonight. The Bulls are a great team, but you can't ignore how tough the Pacers have played them with 5 and 6-point losses in Chicago. Indiana went 24-17 at home this season and will feed off of their home crowd tonight to come up with the upset.

Darren Collison is probable for the Pacers tonight. When he went out with an ankle injury in Game 2, the Pacers just weren't the same team. Having Collison out there running the show is going to make a huge difference for Indiana in Game 3. The Pacers are 15-4 ATS in home games after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite. Bet the Pacers Thursday.

20* Hornets/Lakers NBA Wednesday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -11.5

After failing to show up in Game 1, I fully expect the two-time defending champions to take care of business in Game 2. Los Angeles has a huge edge in the paint in this series, something that they failed to utilize in Game 1. Make no bones about it, they are going to go inside tonight and feed their big men all game. Look for Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom to combine to have a huge Game 2.

Aaron Gray is doubtful tonight for the Hornets with an ankle injury, leaving the Hornets even more short-handed inside. They were already hurting when David West was pronounced out for the season, and now they stand no chance of stopping the Lakers inside without Gray at 100%. The Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Lakers aren't going to allow 52% shooting again, and Chris Paul can't possibly play as well as he did in Game 1. All signs point to a Lakers blowout tonight. Bet Los Angeles Wednesday.

25* NBA First Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 193.5

I really like this UNDER tonight in Game 2 between the Knicks and Celtics. Game 1 saw 172 combined points with an 87-85 Boston victory. I don't see this one sniffing 193 points tonight, either. Playoff basketball brings out the best defensive efforts that teams have, even the Knicks who are not known as a great defensive team. Obviously, the Boston Celtics know how to shut teams down as they've proven it year in and year out in the playoffs.

With Chauncey Billups doubtful Tuesday, the Knicks aren't going to be nearly as sharp offensively without him in the line-up. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 playoff games as a favorite. The UNDER is 12-2 in Celtics last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 16-4-1 in Celtics last 21 overall. Boston is 11-1 (92%) to the UNDER after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 18 or less fouls this season. Roll with the UNDER in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Bulls Game 2 No-Brainer on Indiana +12.5

The Indiana Pacers realize they let Game 1 slip away, and I look for them to come back with a great effort in Game 2 because of it. Motivated from that loss, this Pacers team will prove they can play with the Bulls again. Indiana played a great 46 minutes, but just could close the deal in the final two. They shot 46.4% from the field while limiting the Bulls to 43.9% shooting.

The Pacers proved they could beat Chicago in the final regular season meeting, a 115-108 home victory over the Bulls. The one thing I really like about Indiana is they believe they can win, and are playing with confidence which gives them a chance. The Pacers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Chicago is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Bulls are once again overvalued in Game 2. Roll with the Pacers Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Nuggets/Thunder OVER 199.5

This total has been set way too low for two of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA. The Nuggets lead the league in scoring at 107.5 PPG, and the Thunder aren't far behind at 104.8 PPG. Neither team has been all that great defensively this season, as Denver allows 102.7 PPG and OKC gives up 101.0 PPG. There is clearly value with this OVER today in Game 1.

The Thunder are 13-4 to the OVER after allowing 110 points or more this season. The Nuggets are 14-6 to the OVER after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games this season. The OVER is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 overall. The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Oklahoma City. The OVER is 35-15-1 in Thunder last 51 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the OVER here.

20* NBA Saturday Playoffs No-Brainer on Atlanta Hawks +8.5

The Atlanta Hawks took 3 of 4 games from the Orlando Magic during the regular season. Sure, they got outscored by 100-plus points in the playoffs last year while getting swept by the Magic. But this is a new season, which means new match-ups. Orlando just isn't the same explosive team without Rashard Lewis, who was a match-up nightmare for Atlanta. The Hawks certainly match up a lot better with the Magic this year with the rosters at hand.

This play falls into a system that is 39-16 (70.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Atlanta is 12-4 ATS after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season. Orlando is 6-16 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. The Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet Atlanta Saturday.

15* Celtics/Bulls NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Boston +4.5

The Boston Celtics want to send a message tonight and let the Chicago Bulls know that if they meet in the playoffs, Boston is the king of the Eastern Conference. The Celtics can also gain one game on the Bulls in the standings to pull within two games of Chicago for the No. 1 seed. The Celtics are the best defensive team in the league this season. Boston has been even better on the road defensively, where they give up just 90.4 PPG on 43.2% shooting.

Boston has won two of three meetings with Chicago this season, though they did lose their last visit to Chicago. The Celtics must take the season series from the Bulls in order to win the tie-breaker if that were to come into play. Boston is 10-1 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Now that the Celtics are finally starting to get healthy, look out. They make a statement tonight. Roll with Boston Thursday.

25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Sacramento Kings +11.5

The Sacramento Kings are certainly one of the few teams that is playing out their season despite being eliminated from the playoffs. This young team has saved their best basketball for last, and will be looking forward to going up against the No. 1 team in the league record-wise tonight. The San Antonio Spurs could easily be overlooking the Kings here as the Lakers are up next on their schedule.

The Kings are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. What's most impressive about this run is the fact that Sacramento has played all eight teams during this stretch that were all either in the playoffs, or in playoff contention. Plus, they are 4-1 in their last five road games knocking off the likes of Milwaukee, Indiana, Philly and Houston. The Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite. The Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Bet Sacramento Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +9.5

The New York Knicks should not be this heavily favored. New York has clinched a playoff spot and really has nothing to play for down the stretch. They are guaranteed to have to play either Chicago, Boston or Miami in the first round of the playoffs. The Knicks are 4-9 SU & 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall heading into this one.

The Raptors are playing out their season, taking the Bulls down to the wire in a 7-point road loss on Saturday followed by a 102-98 home victory over the Orlando Magic on Sunday. This is clearly a letdown spot for the Knicks after earning a playoff berth, and the Raptors are poised to take them down to the wire. The Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Raptors Tuesday.

15* NBA Friday Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

The Portland Trail Blazers aren't about to let the Oklahoma City come into their building tonight and escape with another victory. Portland is 0-3 against the Thunder this season, losing three close games all decided by single-digits. This one is about pride for the Blazers, who will be looking to send a message to the Thunder here and avoid the season sweep.

The Blazers are 26-10 at home this season and over the last few years the Rose Garden has provided one of the best home-court advantages in the league. Portland is 11-2 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. You will see these Blazers giving their best effort of the year tonight with what has happened in this series leading up to this game. Take Portland Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on Sacramento Kings +12.5

The Sacramento Kings are playing out their season. This is one team you can feel safe to back even though they've been eliminated from the playoffs. Sacramento is not only winning games, they are taking it out on playoff contenders. The Kings are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games, winning three road games over the likes of Milwaukee, Indiana and Philadelphia followed by a home win over Phoenix last night. All four of those teams are either in the playoffs are on the brink of making the postseason.

Denver has been really good since the All-Star Break, but they are overvalued here because of it. The Nuggets are likely to have all of their momentum stopped tonight considering they come in on 4 days' rest and will be rusty from the opening tip. Sacramento can't wait to get back on the floor and try to extend their winning streak to five games, and they'll surely be playing with a ton of confidence tonight. The Kings are 32-14 ATS in road games off a home win against a division rival since 1996. Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +3.5

The Houston Rockets sit two games behind Memphis for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Houston has been surging for quite some time now and it's very impressive that they have worked themselves into this position. They take another step forward tonight with an upset road win at the Philadelphia 76ers. The Rockets are 13-4 SU & 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall, clearly one of the hottest teams in the league.

Houston is 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Philadelphia, so they have played this team very tough on the road. In fact, the road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall. The Rockets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Houston is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. Bet Houston Wednesday.

20* Suns/Kings NBA Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -106

I'm taking the Phoenix Suns on the money line at -106, but if you aren't comfortable with taking the ML then feel free to back the Suns at -1 or whatever line you get them at. I cost myself a win on the Bobcats -1 last night in a 1-point victory by not taking them on the money line, and I'm not going to make the same mistake again here. The Suns have a lot to play for still as they currently sit four games behind Memphis for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Knowing they cannot afford any more losses, the Suns will be on a mission tonight.

Sacramento has been playing well lately, but as a result they are overvalued here. At 20-52 on the season, the Kings should be a much heavier underdog in this contest against a team that still has something to play for like Phoenix. The Suns are a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. Sacramento is 2-11 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Phoenix is 14-3 ATS in all road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Phoenix Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -1

This is a huge game for both the Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte Bobcats tonight. After an 83-81 win at Boston on Friday with leading scorer Stephen Jackson on the sidelines and defeating New York 114-106 the following night, Charlotte still finds itself in ninth place in the East, one game behind Indiana for the final playoff spot. Milwaukee sits one game behind Charlotte and two games behind the Pacers.

I am siding with the home team to win tonight for a number of reasons. First and foremost, the home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings in this series. Secondly, both Stephen Jackson and Tyrus Thomas are expected to play tonight for Charlotte. Thirdly, the Bobcats are 18-17 at home this season while Milwaukee is 10-24 on the road. The Bobcats are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Charlotte is 15-5 ATS in home games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Bobcats Monday.

15* Blazers/Thunder ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Portland +4.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are out for serious revenge Sunday. They are showing excellent value as a dog to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and while I'm taking the points I don't think we will need them as the Blazers win this game outright. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these teams. OKC won the first meeting 107-106 in overtime on the road, and also won the second meeting 110-108 at home.

After two losses by a combined 3 points to the Thunder this season, Portland is going to want this game a lot more than Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 Sunday games. Portland is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with OKC. The Blazers are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +11

The Los Angeles Clippers should not be double-digit favorites against anyone. The Clippers are just 28-45 this season. It's going to be very hard for the Clippers to get up for this game tonight after playing their inner-city rival in the Los Angeles Lakers last night. I not only like the Raptors to keep this game close because of it, I believe they will likely win outright tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 47-19 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the Raptors Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The San Antonio Spurs are without Tim Duncan until early April. Teams that can exploit the Spurs now are teams with dominant big men inside. The Portland Trail Blazers have that without LaMarcus Aldridge, along with guys like Marcus Camby and Gerald Wallace. Look for the Blazers to get easy point in the paint all night long and for the Spurs to drop their second straight game without Duncan.

Portland has had San Antonio's number even when they had Duncan. The Blazers are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Spurs. The home team is a superb 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Portland is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with San Antonio. The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season here of late, going 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests. Take Portland Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5

The Detroit Pistons should not be a road favorite against any team in the league. The Pistons are 7-28 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.5 PPG. While the Cleveland Cavaliers own the worst record in the NBA, they continue to fight, scratch and claw. Detroit is not going to be motivated at all for this game, especially after blowing a 4th quarter lead last time out against the Miami Heat. This is a huge letdown spot for the Pistons.

Detroit is 1-8 ATS in road games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog this season. The Pistons are failing to cover 89% of the time in this spot, and they are getting outscored by 16.1 PPG in this situation as well. The Pistons are 2-17 ATS after 2 straight games being called for 5+ more fouls than opponent over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Cavs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. Roll with Cleveland Friday.

25* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -3.5

I put this line in late last night when it opened at 3.5. I still like the Nuggets at -6 or less just so you know as the line is clearly jumping with Tim Duncan being out for San Antonio. I anticipated this line move which is why I put it in early. The Denver Nuggets are 11-4 SU & 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They are covering the spread 93% of the time over their last 15 contests.

Denver is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games during this stretch, winning by 13 over Memphis, 14 over Boston, 10 over Atlanta, 40 over Charlotte, 30 over Detroit and 33 over Toronto. So their games haven't even been close as they've posted six straight double-digit blowout home victories. Denver is 28-7 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 10.2 PPG. The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take Denver Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Thunder OVER 202.5

When looking at recent meetings between the Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with this OVER tonight. The OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City. I am seeing combined scores of 226, 223, 219, 279 and 230 points in those five games. So as you can see, those totals were much higher than the total set listed tonight. Utah is playing no defense right now, though surprisingly they are getting a lot of offense despite losing Deron Williams via trade.

The Jazz have scored 101 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games, while allowing 102 or more points in 11 of their last 12 contests. The OVER is 9-3 in those 12 games. OKC is scoring 107.0 PPG at home this season while allowing 100.7 PPG. Utah is 27-8 OVER vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 41-19-1 in Jazz last 61 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The OVER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Suns/Lakers TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on OVER 200

This Suns/Lakers showdown should go way OVER the number by game's end. Rarely will you find a Phoenix game with a total set of 200 points or lower. The Suns are scoring 104.4 PPG on the road this season while allowing 106.1 PPG away from home for an average of 210.5 PPG. The Lakers are scoring 103.1 PPG at home and allowing 93.7 PPG there for an average of 196.8 PPG. Given these averages, there is clearly value with this OVER tonight.

Andrew Bynum, the Lakers best defender, will be out tonight as he serves the second game of his 2-game suspension. Without Bynum's huge presence, the Lakers are a completely different team. They are more up-tempo offensively and are far worse off defensively. Phoenix is 12-2 OVER in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles. The last four meetings in L.A. resulted in 237, 204, 236 and 235 combined points. That makes for a 4-0 OVER system pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Knicks NBA Monday No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

The New York Knicks face a tough situation tonight and are primed to continue to struggle when the Boston Celtics come to town. New York is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, which includes four losses to teams with losing records. The Knicks simply aren't playing well since they brought in Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, and this trade is looking better for Denver as each day passes.

After losing in Milwaukee 95-100 last night, the Knicks will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days and their 5th game in 7 days. NBA teams always struggle to handle situations like these, especially late in the season. The Celtics have won 5 of their last 6 meetings with New York, and are 14-2 in their last 16 meetings with the Knicks. New York is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Bet the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The New Jersey Nets are in a very tough spot tonight. The Indiana Pacers are trying to hold onto the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Their next two games should give them a good chance to solidify their standing. New Jersey's star player in Deron Williams will miss at least two more games with a wrist injury. Without Williams, the Nets lost 98-82 at Washington Sunday.

This will now be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 5 days for New Jersey. This is a tough spot for any NBA team to be in, especially one like the Nets with a thin bench and without Williams. Indiana is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with New Jersey. These games haven't even been close, either. Indiana has won all six meetings by 8 points or more, including a 105-86 road win and a 124-92 home victory in both meetings this season. The Pacers have won four straight at New Jersey. Take Indiana Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Play of the Day on Golden State Warriors +9.5

The Golden State Warriors get the call Sunday as nearly a double-digit underdog against the Dallas Mavericks. I see no way the Warriors lose by 10 or more points, and once again Dallas is overvalued as a huge home favorite. These teams just met up on 3/16, with Dallas winning 112-106 at Golden State. That places the Warriors in revenge mode tonight.

Dallas is 0-10 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is 27-48 ATS in all home games over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 meetings with the Mavericks. The road team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take this 16-0 ATS System in favor of the Warriors straight to the bank tonight. Roll with Golden State Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +8

The Nuggets enter this matchup 9-3 since trading Carmelo Anthony to New York on Feb. 22 and fifth in the West. However, they suffered an 85-82 road loss to Orlando on Friday as the Magic's Jameer Nelson hit a 3-pointer as time expired. I fully expect the Nuggets to bounce back here as they try and erase the sour taste from that tough defeat. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are coming off an impressive win at Atlanta Friday and as a result I see them overvalued once again tonight at home.

The Nuggets have been the best covering team in the NBA over the past month. Denver is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall for a 92% cash rate. This is a team that is hitting on all cylinders offensively, making 51.7% of their shots or better in four of their last five games. They have also stepped it up on the defensive end, allowing 97 or less points in five of their last nine games and never more than 103 points in any of their last nine contests. Denver beat Miami 130-102 in their lone meeting this season. Excellent value here with the Nuggets. Bet Denver Saturday.

20* Thunder/Heat NBA on ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as a nice-sized underdog to the Miami Heat. Once again, Miami is overvalued after their recent 3-game winning streak. It's time to take advantage of this value and pound the Thunder tonight. OKC is out for revenge from their 103-108 loss to the Heat at home back on January 30th in a game they should have won. I like the Thunder to have their revenge, especially considering Kenrick Perkins is in the line-up and healthy now. While the Heat are getting way too much credit for their recent winning streak, the Thunder are not getting enough respect for their recent run.

OKC is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. That includes three straight double-digit blowout victories and three wins over playoff contenders. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. OKC is 27-13 ATS in their last 40 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Thunder are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take Oklahoma City Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +1

The Denver Nuggets have proven they can beat anyone since trading away Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. Any time I can get this team as an underdog the rest of the way, I'm certainly going to give them a look. The Nuggets are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, with eight of those victories coming since the trade. Not only are they winning, they are crushing opponents. Seven of their eight wins have come by double-digits. Denver is also playing much better defense, limiting opponents to 96.1 PPG since the trade. At the same time, they are scoring 109.5 PPG post-trade.

The Atlanta Hawks are in a tough spot here having to play the second of a back-to-back. The Hawks need practice time to prepare for the "new" Nuggets, but since they aren't getting it they will not be prepared to face Denver tonight. Atlanta is 6-15 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Hawks are 9-19 ATS as a home favorite this season. Atlanta is 2-10 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* Mavs/Blazers NBA Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Portland +2

The Portland Trail Blazers should not be a home underdog to just about any team in the league. They have one of the best home-court advantages in the league over the last few seasons, and they are finally getting healthy. Portland is 21-10 at home this season despite playing much of it without their best player Brandon Roy. He has recently returned, and so has Marcus Camby. Throw in the addition of Gerald Wallace via trade, and this team is going to be a force down the stretch.

Dallas has faltered of last, losing three of their last five and going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Portland is coming off back-to-back losses to end a 4-game road trip, and will be very hungry tonight when they return home to face the Mavs. Dallas is 2-0 against Portland this season, but both of those games were in Dallas and the Mavs only won by 3 and 5 points, respectively. Certainly the Blazers will be hungry to revenge those close losses as well. The Mavs are 0-7 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. The Blazers are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as a home underdog. The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take Portland Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -16.5

The Chicago Bulls are going to crush the Washington Wizards tonight by 20-plus points. Washington has clearly packed it in, and they are likely without several key starters tonight. The Wizards have Andray Blatche, Josh Howard and Rashard Lewis all listed as doubtful to play the Bulls Tuesday. The Wizards have lost four straight games by double-digits, including their last three at home by 19 to the Bucks, by 21 to the Clippers and by 27 to the Thunder. I mean this team isn't even showing up to play right now. Washington is 1-29 on the road this season, losing by 12.9 PPG. The Bulls are 29-4 at home, winning by 10.3 PPG.

The Bulls are going to be highly motivated tonight knowing that they can take sole possession of 1st place in the Eastern Conference with a victory. Chicago is also coming in on 2 days' rest, while the Wizards are playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. In their last meeting, Chicago won 105-77 at Washington for a 28-point blowout on 2/28/11. I fully expect a similar beat down tonight. The Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Washington is 1-11 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in home games after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons. Bet Chicago Tuesday.

20* Magic/Lakers NBA Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 188

The Los Angeles Lakers have been playing excellent defense since the All-Star break. The UNDER is 7-3 in all Lakers games since the break and they have allowed 95 or less points in nine of 10 games during that stretch. In fact, we have seen combined scores of 188 or less points in seven straight Lakers games. That makes for a perfect 7-0 UNDER system when factoring in tonight's posted total.

Orlando and Los Angeles met once this season with the Magic topping the Lakers 89-75 at home in February 13th for 164 combined points. While tonight's meeting may not be that low-scoring, it will certainly stay under the 188 total. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings overall and 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. The UNDER is 5-0 in Magic last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Eight of the last 10 meetings have gone UNDER and 11 of the last 14 meetings have gone UNDER in Los Angeles. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -5.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are looking to erase the sour taste of back-to-back defeats. They were beaten on a last-second shot at home by the Knicks and were blown out at Miami. This will only be the Grizzlies 2nd game in 5 days so they will certainly be fresh and ready to go tonight. While the Clippers are hot, winning 5 of their last 6, they come in playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days so Memphis is going to be the fresher team here.

The Clippers are just 8-26 on the road this season, getting outscored by 6.7 PPG. Memphis is 22-10 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 5.1 PPG. The Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Memphis is 14-4 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. The Clippers are 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Memphis Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +9.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are absolutely rolling over opponents right now. Boston is still dealing with a ton of injuries, and as a result they are starting to slip. The Celtics did this last year as you remember as they simply tried to get healthy for the playoffs, not worrying as much about wins or losses late in the season. Tenth in the East heading into the day, Milwaukee is just one half-game behind Indiana and Charlotte - both of which play on the road Sunday. They are highly motivated right now knowing that they have a great shot at playing in the postseason.

Milwaukee has averaged 102.3 points and shot 50.4 percent while tying its longest winning streak of the season. The Bucks are not only winning, they are blowing teams out during their 3-0 run. Milwaukee beat Washington by 19, Cleveland by 20 and Philadelphia by 28. Boston has dropped two straight, losing 103-108 at home to the Clippers and 86-89 on the road at the 76ers. Boston is 6-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The Bucks are 10-1 ATS against Atlantic division opponents this season. Milwaukee is 16-4 ATS in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the Bucks Sunday.

15* Lakers/Mavs NBA Saturday Night BAILOUT on OVER 194.5

Just looking at recent meetings between the Mavericks and Lakers, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the OVER in this game tonight. Dallas and Los Angeles have combined to score 195 or more points in 11 of their last 12 meetings. That's an 11-1 (92%) system in favor of the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set.

Dallas has been burning up the nets all season, especially over the last few months. Dallas has scored 101 or more points in 20 of their last 22 games overall. Their defense has took a hit recently, though, as the Mavs have allowed 104 or more points in four of their last five contests. Dallas is a perfect 7-0 to the OVER in home games after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Mavs are also a perfect 12-0 to the OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. These 11-1, 7-0 and 12-0 trendss combine for a 30-1 (97%) system in favor of the OVER. Bet the OVER Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -11

The San Antonio Spurs have absolutely owned the Sacramento Kings. I expect that to continue tonight with yet another double-digit victory over the lowly Kings. The Spurs own the league's best record at 52-12 while the Kings rank near the bottom at 15-47. The Spurs have won 10 straight meetings with the Kings, including a 113-100 road victory in their lone meeting this season.

The Spurs have won 7 straight home meetings with the Kings, and each of their last 5 home wins in this series have come by 12 points or more. That's a 100% Perfect 5-0 ATS System pertaining to tonight's line. The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. The Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Sacramento is 0-7 ATS vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making >=39% of their attempts this season. Take the Spurs Friday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks +8

Up until this point in the season, the Bulls were certainly a team under the radar. Now that they are finally starting to get credit, Chicago is overvalued. I'll take the value tonight in the Atlanta Hawks who are catching way too many points against a Bulls team they just beat 83-80 on March 2nd. Since that win, Atlanta has lost three straight to playoff teams and will be very hungry to get back on the winning track here tonight. Chicago, meanwhile, has reeled off four straight wins since that defeat and as a result are overvalued.

The Bulls are expected to be without Carlos Boozer who is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. They may also be without another starter in Luol Deng who is questionable with a thigh issue. The Hawks are fully healthy coming into this one. Atlanta is a match-up nightmare for Chicago. The Hawks are 8-1 (89%) SU in their last 9 meetings with the Bulls and 7-1 (88%) ATS in their last 8 meetings. Their only loss to Chicago during this stretch came 101-98 on the road in overtime. This one goes right down to the wire with Atlanta likely winning outright. Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* Lakers/Heat NBA on TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 188

I look for a similar defensive battle to the one I saw the first time the Lakers and Heat got together this season. On Christmas Day, Miami went into Los Angeles and came away with a 96-80 victory for 176 combined points. Certainly the Lakers have improved since then while the Heat have gotten worse, but one thing is certain. Each team knows how to get after it defensively. The Heat are allowing 95.0 PPG while the Lakers are yielding 95.2 PPG. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Lakers last 5 games overall. During this stretch, L.A. is scoring 94.4 PPG and allowing a ridiculous 84.0 PPG. All five contests saw 188 or less combined points.

Miami is only scoring 91.8 PPG during their recent 5-game losing streak. Teams are learning how to defend the Heat, who are becoming more of a 1-on-1 team with James and Wade trying to do too much. The Lakers will have an answer for them defensively tonight. Los Angeles is 12-1 to the UNDER in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. The Heat are 20-6 to the UNDER in home games after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The Lakers are 15-2 to the UNDER versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -2

The Golden State Warriors are favored for a good reason tonight. The New Jersey Nets are without two starters, including their best player in Deron Williams. D-Will is sitting out due to the birth of a new child. Damion James is also doubtful with a concussion. The Nets have six different players listed on the injury report and are clearly depleted right now. Golden State is fully healthy and looking to make a push for the final playoff spot in the West.

The Warriors are a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Nets. They have absolutely blown out New Jersey here recently, winning their last three meetings by 9, 32 and 16 points, respectively. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. Golden State is 24-7 ATS in their last 31 vs. NBA Atlantic. The Warriors are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Nets are 19-40-1 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Golden State Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Suns NBA Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Houston +4.5

I am backing the Houston Rockets again Tuesday as my featured top play. I took Houston -4 last night as they cruised to a 123-101 road victory at Sacramento. This team is playing their best basketball of the season right now and we likely won't need the points in Phoenix tonight. The Rockets are 7-1 in their last 8 games overall which includes five road victories. This is a team that nobody wants to play right now as their only loss during this stretch came by a mere 3 points.

Phoenix is without arguably their best player in Channing Frye. Frye dislocated his right shoulder in the fourth quarter of a 118-122 overtime loss to Oklahoma City last time out after pulling down a career-high 15 rebounds. The forward/center, who hit two game-winning shots on their recent road trip, is expected to miss two to three weeks. Houston is averaging 110.9 PPG over their last eight contests. The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. Take Houston Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Kings NBA Monday Night BAILOUT on Houston -4

The Houston Rockets have surged closer to being in playoff position in the Western Conference, and they'll try to continue closing the gap with a road game against the lowly Sacramento Kings. The Rockets look to move above .500 for the first time this season when they visit the Kings on Monday night looking for their third win in as many meetings this season. Houston (32-32) has won six of seven to move into 11th place in the West, 2 1/2 games out of the last playoff spot. Most promising for the Rockets is how their defense has improved. They've held three of their last four opponents to 95 or fewer points, and limited the Pacers to 41.3 percent shooting while forcing 20 turnovers in a 112-95 victory last time out. Houston is 19-4 when it gives up fewer than 100 points and has won 13 consecutive games in which it has held opponents below the mark.

Sacramento is only scoring 98.0 PPG this season, including 97.1 PPG at home. Houston is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Kings. Not only have they won those games, they have blown out Sacramento by 9, 13 and 10 points. Two of those victories came on the road. With so much at stake, the Rockets aren't about to overlook Sacramento. In fact, Houston should be very hungry and fresh considering this will only be their 2nd game in 5 days. The Rockets are 13-3 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games this season. The Kings are 1-10 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Sacramento is 2-11 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Take Houston Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +6.5

The New York Knicks should not be this heavily favored Monday considering how tough of a spot this is for them. This will be New York's 5th game in 7 days and the second of a back-to-back which represents one of the hardest situations for an NBA team year in and year out. There's no question they are a tired team right now. The Knicks have not won back-to-back games since the Carmelo Anthony trade, trading off wins and losses. Utah will only be playing their 3rd game in 7 days here, so they are obviously the fresher team.

The Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs as they currently 1.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th and final spot in the West. They will have no problem being motivated tonight. The Jazz are 34-20 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. New York is 16-33 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Roll with Utah Monday.

20* Bulls/Heat ABC Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 187.5

I am backing the UNDER in the Chicago at Miami game Sunday on ABC. Coming off 3 straight losses, including a 99-125 setback at San Antonio last time out, the Heat are going to clamp down defensively Sunday. The Bulls always bring their best effort defensively and both teams rank up there as two of the best defensive teams in the league. Chicago allows 91.9 PPG while Miami gives up 95.0 PPG.

These teams last met on February 24th, with the Bulls winning 93-89 for 182 combined points. Chicago is 14-3 to the UNDER versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Bulls are 17-3 to the UNDER after allowing 85 points or less this season. Chicago is a perfect 7-0 to the UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game this season. The Bulls are also 10-1 to the UNDER after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less this season. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Night BAILOUT on Denver Nuggets +2

I'll take the red hot Nuggets Saturday as an underdog to the lowly Los Angeles Clippers. The Nuggets are the real deal, going 6-1 SU & a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Their only loss came in overtime at Portland by a single point. This squad is playing as a team since the Carmelo Anthony trade, and all these players are playing with a chip on their shoulder.

The Clippers are just 3-12 in their last 15 games overall. No way in hell should they be favored tonight against a superior Nuggets squad. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. The Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver has won 11 of their last 13 meetings with Los Angeles. Take the Nuggets Saturday.

15* Heat/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Miami +2

Many believe the Miami Heat will come out flat after blowing a big lead to the Orlando Magic last night. I see it much, much differently. Miami cannot wait to get back on the floor and erase the sour taste from that loss to the Magic. I fully expect the Heat to come out with their best effort of the season tonight in San Antonio because of it. Sure, they are playing the second of a back-to-back, but they had 3 days' rest coming into last night's game so essentially they are only playing their 2nd game in 5 days. Fatigue will not be a factor.

San Antonio simply isn't the same team without Tony Parker. That was clearly evident in their 93-109 loss at Memphis on March 1st. They did beat the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out, but not impressively and the Cavs are the worst team in the league. This will be San Antonio's 3rd game in 4 days tonight. Miami is one of the best road teams in the league, going 21-11 SU & 18-13-1 ATS away from home. They are outscoring opponents by 5.6 PPG on the road. The Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Take Miami Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +8.5

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the worst teams in the league over the last few seasons when it comes to covering the spread in home games. Dallas is 26-44 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons. Worse yet, the Mavs are 9-25-2 ATS in their last 36 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Dallas will be without Tyson Chandler tonight, leaving a gaping hole in the middle. Indiana beat Dallas in their lone meeting this season, a 102-89 home victory on 1/12/2011.

This play falls into a system that is 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (DALLAS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games. The Pacers are 41-19-2 ATS in their last 62 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Mavericks are a winless 0-9 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is 1-8 ATS against Central division opponents this season. Roll with the Pacers Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -3

Kevin Durant is doubtful for Oklahoma City tonight as the Thunder travel to face the Atlanta Hawks. This line should be set at Atlanta -3 even if Durant was playing, so the fact that he's not going to play provides us with excellent value on the Hawks here. OKC is going to be lost out there without being able to run their offense through Durant. Atlanta is 18-9 at home this season while the Thunder are 16-13 on the road.

The Hawks have really turned up their defense of late. Atlanta is allowing just 85.5 PPG over their past four contests. They have even faced some really good offensive teams over that stretch with the likes of the Warriors, Blazers, Nuggets and Bulls. Atlanta won three of four. The Hawks are 13-2 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 15-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 16-4 ATS in home games after allowing 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 16-3 ATS in home games after a combined score of 175 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* Magic/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami -5

The Miami Heat are in a great spot tonight and certainly worthy of a wager. The Heat have been steaming over their 5-point home loss to the New York Knicks last time out. They've had 3 days of rest to think about it, and three days to prepare for the Orlando Magic will do them a lot of good tonight. Miami has not lost back-to-back games since mid-January so they have been a very safe bet when trying to bounce back from a loss. Miami is 13-3 in their last 16 games overall. The Heat are 22-6 at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 49-19 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (MIAMI) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Miami has had their way with Orlando this season, winning two of three including a 96-70 victory in their lone home meeting. The Magic are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog. The Heat are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Miami Thursday.

25* NBA West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -3

The Portland Trail Blazers have been through a rough patch here of late playing a bunch of hot teams and coming out on the losing end. They have lost 3 of their last 4 to the Lakers, Hawks and Rockets. I fully expect the Blazers to respond in a big way tonight, especially considering they lost to the Kings on 1/24 in one of their worst losses of the season the last time these teams got together. Sacramento is just 15-43 on the season and the Blazers realize they cannot afford another loss to the Kings Wednesday.

That recent loss to the Kings was a rarity, because Portland had won 8 straight over Sacramento prior to it. The Blazers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Sacramento, winning by 4, 11, 16 and 21 points. The Trail Blazers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Kings are 10-29-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Portland is 10-1 ATS in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2.5

I know New York is likely without Chauncey Billups tonight, but it won't matter. The Knicks will take care of business at home behind Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. Both New Orleans and New York are coming off tough road losses last night, with the Hornets losing 90-96 at Toronto and the Knicks falling 110-116 at Orlando. New Orleans has been doing a lot of losing lately, especially against the spread. The Hornets are 4-11 SU & 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They are getting way too much respect from odds makers here.

New Orleans is 16-31 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 20-6 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. New York does well on little rest, going 45-22 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 8-23 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% this season. New York has won 5 straight meetings with New Orleans and the Knicks are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Hornets don't do well against their up-tempo style. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5

The New York Knicks are clearly not getting the respect they deserve from odds makers. New York went on the road and beat the Miami Heat Sunday 91-86. This team is certainly a lot more talented after their blockbuster trade which brought in Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. In fact, I believe they are now a strong team than Orlando. The Knicks should not be receiving this many points in a game they certainly can win outright as they make the short trip up to Orlando from Miami.

The Knicks have been the best covering road team in the league all season. New York is a very profitable 20-8-1 ATS in all road games this year. The Knicks are 20-7 ATS as an underdog this season. New York is 18-4 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 11-2 ATS when coming off a road win this season. New York is 10-2 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. Take the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers +2

The Philadelphia 76ers have been the best covering team in the league all year. They sit at 30-29 on the season which includes a 37-21-1 ATS mark. The 76ers are 19-9 at home this season and are playing their best basketball of the year right now. Philly has won four straight entering this contest with Dallas and are 6-1 in their last seven games overall. While Dallas is a solid team, they should not be favored on the road tonight.

Home-court advantage has proven to be huge in this series. The home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Mavs and 76ers. The 76ers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Philly is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. The 76ers are 15-3 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. Philly is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog overall. Roll with the 76ers Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5

I really like the Wizards in this spot as a 7.5-point home underdog to the Chicago Bulls. Chicago is a great team this season that has been under the radar for most of the year, but that's not the case any more. The Bulls are clearly overvalued now that they are in the running for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. The line for this game should be set closer to a pick 'em. The Bulls are just 14-13 on the road this season while Washington is 14-15 at home.

Each of the last 6 meetings in this series between Washington and Chicago have been decided by 8 points or less, with five of those games decided by 7 or less. The underdog is now 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Wizards are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. Josh Howard has recently returned to the lineup for Washington as they are getting healthier. The Wizards gave two of the best teams in the NBA in the Heat and Mavs all they could handle in their last two games, going 2-0 ATS. Bet Washington Monday.

20* Knicks/Heat ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +9.5

I really like the Knicks in this spot. I do not believe the Heat have any chance to win by double-digits, thus there is clearly some value with New York here. The Knicks were obviously looking ahead to this game with Miami when they lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out. This will be the third game since the Chauncey Billups/Carmelo Anthony trade and these players should certainly be a lot more comfortable with each other by now.

Miami will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days which makes this a tough spot for the Heat. The Knicks are a superb 14-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. New York is 17-5 ATS as a road underdog this season. Miami is 1-12 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The Heat are failing to cover the spread 92% of the time in this spot. Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +9

The Memphis Grizzlies will not lose by double-digits to the San Antonio Spurs Sunday. As a result, we'll take the Grizzlies showing great value tonight. These teams have met once this season with the Spurs needing overtime to escape with a 112-106 victory. The Spurs are clearly overvalued considering they have the league's best record, and they haven't been able to live up to expectations of late. San Antonio is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall.

This play falls into a system that is 73-40 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Memphis is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Dating back further, Memphis is 14-4 in their last 18 games overall. This team is clearly lacking the respect they deserve from odds makers. The Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Roll with Memphis Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +6

The Houston Rockets have been sneaky good this season, especially of late. Houston is putting up 105.8 PPG this season and can score with anyone. The Rockets have been on an offensive tear of late which is a big reason why they are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. Houston has put up 102-plus points in eight straight games now. They have come back from the All-Star break on fire, going 3-0 with two road wins and a 123-108 home victory over New Jersey.

The New Orleans Hornets are not playing well, going 4-9 SU & 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are clearly overvalued here as a 6-point favorite against a team that is playing better than they are right now. The Rockets are 12-3 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games this season. The Hornets are 11-29 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 9-22 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Bet Houston Sunday.

15* Nuggets/Blazers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 204

It's clearly going to take some time for Denver to get accustomed to all of their new faces. For now, they will have to rely on defense which is precisely what they did last night in beating the Boston Celtics 89-75. The Portland Trail Blazers have been relying on defense all season, and they will do so again tonight to try and get back on the winning track after a very tough overtime loss to the Lakers two nights ago.

Portland is scoring 96.3 PPG and allowing 95.6 PPG on the season. The Blazers are only giving up just 93.6 PPG at home this season, and since they are playing at home tonight they will control the tempo and make this a half-court game. Denver is 30-13 to the UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings and 10 of those 11 contests saw a combined score of 203 or less points. That makes for a 10-1 (91%) UNDER angle pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Warriors OVER 201

This total has been set far too low for a Golden State Warriors home game. The Warriors are scoring 105.7 PPG and allowing 105.0 PPG at home this season for an average combined score of 210.7 PPG. That number right there shows you we are getting nearly 10 points of value on this 'over' tonight. The Atlanta Hawks have been playing very little defense of late, giving up 102, 104 and 105 points in their last three games, respectively. They are in the midst of a seven-game road trip and I fully expect them to give up 105-plus tonight.

The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in this series. The Hawks and Warriors have combined to score 209 or more points in 10 of their last 11 meetings. That makes for a 10-1 (91%) angle in favor of the 'over' tonight pertaining to this total set. Atlanta has really been on a tear against the Warriors, scoring 103 or more points in nine straight meetings. The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 to the OVER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

I love the Minnesota Timberwolves at home tonight as an underdog to the New Orleans Hornets in a game that I fully expect them to win outright. One of the biggest reasons I like fading the Hornets in this spot is because they are likely without David West, who is listed as doubtful to to personal reasons with a death in his family. New Orleans is just 3-9 SU & 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Hornets also sport a 13-17 road record this season as well.

Minnesota has beaten the Hornets in each of their first two meetings this season. Not only have they won, they have dominated the Hornets with a 113-98 home victory on 12/27 and a 104-92 road win on 2/7. Minnesota is now 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with New Orleans overall. The Hornets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. New Orleans is 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Hornets are 0-7 ATS in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season. Bet Minnesota Friday.

25* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Celtics/Nuggets OVER 203.5

This will be Denver's first game with the new players they acquired in the Carmelo Anthony game. As a result, there won't be much structure and this contest will be more of a pick-up game because of it. Offensively, the Nuggets won't have a problem scoring points. It's on defense where they will be lost. Boston should put up a huge number on the Nuggets as they take advantage of Denver's lack of team defense. The Celitcs are without Kendrick Perkins, Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal so they have to go to a smaller lineup which will lead to more points for them, but also more scoring from Denver.

In their first game without Melo and Billups, the Nuggets beat Memphis 120-107 at home on Tuesday. That's a great sign going forward as Denver knows they can still score with anyone in the league. The Nuggets are scoring 111.0 PPG at home while allowing 103.3 PPG for an average combined score of 114.3 PPG. Boston is 28-10 to the OVER in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days since 1996. Denver is 10-2 to the OVER in home games after playing a home game this season. The OVER is 8-1 in Nuggets last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Denver. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -3

The Phoenix Suns are showing solid value Wednesday as just a 3-point home favorite over Atlanta. The Hawks played in L.A. last night, losing 80-104 to the Lakers. This will be the Suns first game since the All-Star break aso they will be the more rest team here and should come out very strong tonight as they try to make their second-half push. Atlanta is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Phoenix is 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.

This play falls into a system that is 51-19 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (PHOENIX) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. The Suns are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Atlanta. Their only loss over this stretch was a 1-point loss at Atlanta. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Suns are 28-13 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Take Phoenix Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 205.5

This total has clearly been jacked up tonight when you look at recent meetings between the Spurs and Thunder dating back to 2009. In thier most recent meeting this season, San Antonio beat Oklahoma City at home 101-74 for 175 combined points. In nine meetings since 2009, the Spurs and Thunder have combined to score 199 or less points in regulation eight times. So given the total set tonight, that makes for an 8-1 (89%) System in favor of the UNDER.

The UNDER is 15-3 in the Spurs last 18 home games. The Spurs have been playing tremendous defense at home all season, allowing just 94.7 PPG. San Antonio has given up 100 or less points in nine of their last 10 games overall. The Thunder are giving up just 95.3 PPG in their last four games overall. The UNDER is 10-1 (91%) in Thunder last 11 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on T'Wolves/Bucks UNDER 193

The Timberwolves and Bucks have been playing in all low-scoring games of late, and I expect that to continue tonight in Milwaukee. The UNDER is 9-2 in Minnesota's last 11 games overall. The T'Wolves and their opponents have combined to score 188, 176 and 194 points in their last three games, respectively. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the Bucks last 9 games. Milwaukee and their opponents have combined to score 194 of less points in eight of those nine contests, including 185 or less in seven of them.

These teams met up once already this season, with Minnesota beating Milwaukee 96-85 at home for a combined score of 181 points. I expect a similar point total tonight as this game goes way UNDER the number by game's end. The UNDER is 8-0 in Timberwolves last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 8-2 in Timberwolves last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 9-1 in Bucks last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The UNDER is 8-0 in Bucks last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -13

The Miami Heat are in excellent position to win the East in the second half. They trail the Boston Celtics by only percentage points for the top spot. I look for them to get off to a fast start to the second half tonight when they host the lowly Sacramento Kings. The Kings are just 13-40 this season, incuding 6-18 on the road where they give up a whopping 106.8 PPG. Miami is 20-5 at home this season, yielding a mere 93.1 PPG. Sacramento will be playing without their best player in point guard Tyreke Evans tonight. Evans has missed their last two games, which resulted in a 96-126 loss to the Tunder and a 100-116 loss to Dallas.

Miami won at Sacramento 104-83 in their first meeting of the season back on 12/11/2010. I expect a similar beat down tonight. This is a team that the Kings just haven't been able to figure out through the years. The Heat are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home meetings with Sacramento, and 18-2 ATS in their last 20 meetings overall. The Kings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Sacramento is 2-11 ATS versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Bulls NBA on TNT No-Doubt Rout on Chicago -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are actually challenging the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat for the best record in the Eastern Conference. Still, they don't get talked about in the same sense as those two teams. Chicago is the real deal, and they prove it once again tonight by taking down the team with the NBA's best record in the San Antonio Spurs. Chicago has won two of their last three meetings with San Antonio. The Bulls have gone 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and currently sit at 37-16 on the season.

Chicago has been nearly untouchable at home. The Bulls are 24-4 SU & 17-10-1 ATS in games played at the United Center this season. Not only are they winning, they are blowing teams out by outscoring opponents by 10.0 PPG. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -11

The Sacramento Kings are in a very tough spot tonight. They will certainly be fatigued, which will take its toll against the well-rested Dallas Mavericks. Sacramento will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days tonight. Meanwhile, the Mavericks come in on 3 days' rest after having won 12 of their last 13 games overall. I look for Dallas to continue their dominance with a double-digit blowout tonight, similar to the 126-96 beat down the Oklahoma City Thunder put on the Kings last night.

Dallas is 15-4 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games this season. The Kings are just 6-17 on the road this season. Looking to match a season high with a seventh consecutive home win, the Mavericks have put up 109.8 points per contest while winning eight straight overall against the Kings. Sacramento's best player in point guard Tyreke Evans is expected to miss a second consecutive game with a heel injury. Francisco Garcia is also out for the Kings. The Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Take the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +9.5

The Miami Heat will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days tonight. Toronto comes in on 2 days' rest, giving them the edge here tonight in what is a tough spot for the Heat. This will be their third meeting of the season, with the Heat winning by 17 and 9 points in two home meetings. Having to play at Toronto this time around will lead to a more closely contested game. The home team is 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series. The Heat are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Toronto.

This play falls into a system that is 61-30 (67%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (TORONTO) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. Because of each team's recent runs, there is clearly some line value here with the home underdog. Miami is 11-25 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Warriors OVER 202

This is a very low total for a Warriors home game, and I'll take full advantage. Golden State is scoring 106.2 PPG and allowing 105.2 PPG at home for an averaged combined score of 211.4 PPG. There is clearly some value here with this OVER tonight giving these stats alone. Then, when we look at recent meetings between the Hornets and Warriors it's easy to see why the OVER is as solid choice tonight.

The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in this series with combined scores of 215, 213, 252, 266, 233, 210 and 214 points. That makes for 7 straight meetings that have seen 210 or more combined points. The OVER is 5-0 in Hornets last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The OVER is 7-0 in Hornets last 7 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents. The OVER is 52-22 in Warriors last 74 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The OVER is 41-17 in Warriors last 58 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -9.5

I really like fading the Charlotte Bobcats in this spot tonight with so many factors working against them. The biggest factor that will have the Bobcats coming out flat is the fact that they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. Charlotte just beat the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers handily last night, making this easily a letdown spot for them in Chicago.

The Bulls lost on January 18th to the Bobcats at home 83-82, so they will certainly have revenge in mind. Plus, Chicago comes in well-rested as they will be playing on 2 days' rest and only their 2nd game in 6 days. No question fatigue will be a factor for Charlotte, while Chicago will be able to give max effort for 48 minutes. The Bulls are 23-4 SU & 16-10 ATS at home this season, winning by 9.9 PPG. The Bobcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. Take Chicago Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +6

The Indiana Pacers are an excellent value play tonight as they host the Miami Heat Tuesday. Indiana made a coaching change a few weeks back, and they have taken off ever since. The Pacers are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, with their only loss coming at the Miami Heat 112-117. In that game, the Pacers led by 7 points entering the fourth quarter before getting outscored 27-15 over the final period. These players certainly want their revenge at home tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 72-38 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. The Pacers are 15-11 at home this season, scoring 101.2 PPG and limiting opponents to just 96.7 PPG. Indiana is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games overall. The Heat are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss. Indiana comes in on 2 days' rest as well, while the Heat are off a loss at Boston and playing with 1 day of rest. Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets/Rockets UNDER 221.5

This total has been jacked up Monday and I'll take advantage with the UNDER. This will be the fourth meeting of the season between the Nuggets and Rockets, so they are obviously very familiar with each other. Familiarity normal leads to lower-scoring games and I believe that will be the case tonight. In their first three meetings this year, they combined to score 201, 219 and 211 points, respectively. In fact, ten of the last 12 meetings in this series have seen 219 or less combined points.

Houston and their opponents are combining to score 205.7 PPG on average in Rockets home games. Denver and their opponents are combining to score 212.3 PPG in Nuggets road games. There is clearly value on this UNDER tonight given these averages. Denver is 19-6 to the UNDER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Houston is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games this season. The Rockets and their opponents are combining to score 199.8 PPG in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are faced with a very tough spot tonight. This will be their 4th game in 5 days which is hard for any team to handle. It will be their second of a back-to-back as well after losing in Orlando yesterday 75-89. It's also their sixth game of a 7-game road trip and there's no question this trip will take its toll tonight. Certainly it is going to be hard for the Lakers to get motivated to play the Bobcats after their last three games came against the Celtics, Knicks and Magic which are three teams that are not hard to get up for.

Charlotte has had the Lakers number here in recent years. The Bobcats are 7-2 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Lakers, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. That's pretty impressive considering the Lakers are two-time defending world champs. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bobcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. L.A. is 1-9 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. Take the Bobcats Monday.

20* Heat/Celtics NBA on ABC No-Brainer on Boston +3

I am backing the Boston Celtics to continue their dominance of the Miami Heat Sunday. The Celtics have won both meetings with Miami this season, winning 88-80 at home and 112-107 on the road. They play team defense, which is the key to stopping a team that plays so much one-on-one like the Heat do. Trailing Miami by 1/2 game in the East, the Celtics certainly want to win this one to regain the lead in the standings.

Boston is a perfect 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. They Celtics are winning in this spot by 17.7 PPG. Coming off back-to-back losses, they will bounce back in a big way today. They are well-rested which will help, as this will only be their 2nd game in 6 days. Boston is 23-5 at home this season. Take the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5

I believe Cleveland's 26-game losing streak comes to an end tonight as they knock off the Los Angeles Clippers. The Cavs have tied the North American pro sports record for consecutive losses, and certainly will be motivated to avoid having that record all to themselves. A big reason for my optimism tonight is the return of point guard Mo Williams, who has missed 12 straight games with a hip flexor injury. He'll help get Cleveland over the top. Despite losing, the Cavs have been great against the spread of late going 6-3-2 ATS in their last 11 games.

This play falls into a system that is 50-20 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games. The Clippers should not be favored on the road against anyone. L.A. is 4-18 away from home this season, getting outscored by 7.9 PPG. The Clippers are 1-13 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons, including 0-9 ATS in road games after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. If there's one team that would be ideal for this losing streak to come to an end against, it would be the Clippers who have been the laughing stock of the league for more than a decade. Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Heat/Pistons UNDER 191

Looking at the first two meetings this season between the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons, it's easy to see that there is some serious line value with this 'under' tonight. Miami won both meetings at home, topping Detroit 97-72 and 88-87 for combined point totals of 169 and 175, respectively. I don't expect the final combined score of this one to finish anywhere near the total, either. Detroit has scored 92 or less points in eight of their last 12 games overall, while the Pistons have allowed 97 or less in 10 of their last 13 contests.

This play falls into a system that is 108-57 (66%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UDNER on any team (DETROIT) - off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a home win. Detroit is 27-11 to the UNDER versus excellent teams - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% - 2nd half of the season since 1996. The Pistons are 8-1 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs this season. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3

The Toronto Raptors are absolutely atrocious this season. They are getting way too much respect from odds makers tonight as a mere 3-point underdog to a superior Portland Trail Blazers team. Toronto is 14-39 on the season, including 1-15 in their last 16 games overall with their lone victory coming against the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves. This is like stealing money tonight getting the Blazers at this price.

Portland is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Toronto. That includes four straight wins over the Raptors by double-digits, so these games haven't even been close and there's no question this one is likely to result in a rout as well. The Trail Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Portland is 22-10-3 ATS in their last 35 games as a road favorite, including 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Blazers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Raptors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Bet Portland Friday.

15* Mavs/Nuggets TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on Denver -3

Off back-to-back losses, I fully expect the Denver Nuggets to bounce back with a win at home tonight against the Dallas Mavericks. Sure, Dallas is on a 10-game winning streak but the majority of those victories came against losing teams. Their last two wins have been unimpressive, beating Cleveland 99-96 at home followed by a 102-100 road win at Sacramento last night. Both teams played last night, with the Mavs obviously winning by two and the Nuggets losing by two at Golden State. There's no question Denver is going to be the more hungry team when they return home tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 95-55 (63%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (DALLAS) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days. This will be the 5th game in 7 days for Dallas which is a tough spot for any team. Denver is 21-7 at home this season where they are scoring 110.3 PPG. Dallas is only putting up 97.0 PPG on the road this year and cannot keep up with the Nuggets. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 10-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Denver is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Denver is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 meetings with Dallas. Take the Nuggets Thursday.

20* Lakers/Celtics NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Boston -2

Certainly the Boston Celtics want to sweep the season series with the Los Angeles Lakers after losing to them in seven games in the NBA Finals last June. Even though they already won 109-96 in L.A. earlier this year, I fully expect them to be just as hungry tonight when they host the defending champs. Boston wants to send a message that if it comes down to these two teams again, they aren't going to be denied this time. The Lakers have had a hard time against the top teams in the league. The Lakers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

This play falls into a system that is 47-18 (72%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Both teams come in on 2 days' rest, but that clearly benefits the Celtics. Boston is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 2 days rest, while the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. The Celtics are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. Boston is 23-4 at home this season and showing excellent value tonight. Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Kings UNDER 196

The Dallas Mavericks have really picked up their effort on the defensive end of late which is a big reason why they have won nine straight games. Dallas has allowed 97 or less points in six straight contests. Sacramento has also been playing better on this end of the floor, allowing 96 or less points in five of their last seven games.

This play falls into a system that is 53-21 (72%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (DALLAS) - after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games. The Kings are 15-4 to the UNDER after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. The UNDER is 25-11 in Mavericks last 36 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER 197

Both the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers are playing their second of a back-to-back tonight, so each team comes in on tired legs. This will lead to a low-scoring affair in Philly Wednesday. These teams have met twice this season, with the 76ers winning 97-89 in the first meeting for 186 combined points. Their second meeting went into overtime, with the Magic winning 98-99. That game saw 180 combined points at the end of regulation.

This play falls into a system that is 60-23 (72%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (ORLANDO) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). Orlando is 20-8 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +2

The Philadelphia 76ers are really coming on strong of late and they've been one of the best covering teams in the league all season. Philly is 7-2 SU in their last nine games, and 8-3 ATS in their last eleven contests. For the season, the 76ers are a prosperous 32-18 ATS. Philly has gone 16-8 SU & 15-9 ATS at home this year. Orlando should not be favored on the road tonight considering they are just 14-13 SU & 10-16 ATS away from home.

This play falls into a system that is 35-10 (78%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team. Orlando is playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 5th game in 7 days. Betting against teams playing their 5th game in 7 days has been a very profitable move throughout the years. Philly is 11-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. Roll with the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -7.5

Coming off four straight losses, the Milwaukee Bucks will bounce back with a blowout victory tonight as they host the lowly Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are 1-13 in their last 14 games overall, and seven of their last nine losses have come by double-digits. The Bucks are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Toronto.

This play falls into a system that is 49-19 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. The Bucks are 28-12 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 24-9 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 19-4 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Milwaukee Tuesday.

25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 206

The Grizzlies are a tired team as this will be their 4th game in five days and their 5th game in seven days. I don't see them putting up a big number here as they continue to struggle to score while they're tired. The Grizzlies only put up 93 points in an overtime loss to Houston on 2/5, and just 84 points against the Lakers last night. Memphis has been playing great defense, though, allowing 98 or less points in nine of their last 10 games overall. Oklahoma City has been playing in some high-scoring games here recently against terrible defensive teams, which is a big reason why this total is so jacked up. That provides us with some value on the 'under' tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 38-12 (76%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better. The Grizzlies are 19-9 UNDER in all road games this season, including 11-3 UNDER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The UNDER is a perfect 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 road games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -5

I'll back the Golden State Warriors at home Monday as they host the Phoenix Suns. The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now to get themselves back in the Western Conference playoff race. Golden State has won 3 straight over quality teams, beating Utah by 15, Milwaukee by 6 and Chicago by 11. The Warriors are 16-10 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 7.2 PPG. Phoenix is 9-14 on the road, giving up 109.1 PPG and getting outscored by 4.4 PPG.

This play falls into a system that is 52-20 (72%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdog (PHOENIX) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games. Golden State is 20-7 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss. The Warriors are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 vs. NBA Pacific. The Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Golden State is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home meetings with Phoenix. Bet the Warriors Monday.

15* Magic/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Boston -4.5

Good value here with the Boston Celtics as a small home favorite over the Orlando Magic. That's especially the case since the Celtics are coming off a loss, losing 97-101 to Dallas last time out. Boston rarely loses back-to-back games, and are 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. Better yet, the Celtics are 8-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.

This play falls into a system that is 61-26 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Boston is 22-12 SU & 23-10-1 ATS in all home meetings with Orlando since 1996. Take the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -4.5

This is a home and home situation, and I certainly like taking the team that lost the first game, especially when they are playing at home with revenge in mind. Philadelphia beat New York 100-98 Friday night in Philly. Now, getting the Knicks as just a small home favorite is certainly a great value play Sunday knowing that they will be looking for payback.

This play falls into a system that is 51-20 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games. The 76ers are just 7-18 on the road this season. The Knicks are 9-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games this season. Bet New York Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers/Heat OVER 201.5

Both the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers have been playing in high-scoring affairs of late. The OVER is 8-3 in the Clippers last 11 games overall. Los Angeles and their opponents have combined to score 201 or more points in eight of those 11 contests. The OVER is 11-3 in Miami's last 14 games overall. The Heat and their opponents have combined to score 204 or more points en route to four straight OVERS.

This play falls into a system that is 29-7 (81%) OVER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Lakers/Hornets NBA Saturday No-Brainer on New Orleans +4

The play falls under a system that is 58-24 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to be on home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Bet the Hornets Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Suns UNDER 214

The Phoenix Suns have been locking it down defensively here of late and playing in much lower-scoring games. There is some nice value with this UNDER tonight because of it. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Suns last 6 games overall. Phoenix and their opponents have combined to score 204, 200, 149, 200, 221 and 159 points over their last six games, respectively. For the season, the Suns and their opponents are combining to score an average of 209.1 PPG at home. The Thunder and their opponents are combining to average 203.1 PPG on the road this year. This really shows the 'under' value.

This play falls into a system that is 91-44 (67%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. The UNDER is 6-0 in Suns last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Phoenix between these teams. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +4

The New York Knicks have been a covering machine on the road all season. They are 17-7-1 ATS in 25 road games this year and showing excellent value again tonight as a road underdog. That's especially the case since they are coming off a bad home loss to the Dallas Mavericks last time out. The Knicks are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.

This play falls into a system that is 43-16 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (NEW YORK) - explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. The Knicks are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog, including 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The road team is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between the Knicks and 76ers. Roll with the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Raptors UNDER 215.5

Once again, the total for a Minnesota Timberwolves game has been jacked up tonight and I'll take full advantage. This team played in many high-scoring affairs through the first half of the season, and it's starting to catch up to them. The betting public continues to be on the 'over' in their games, providing us with some very nice value on the 'under' here of late. The UNDER is 3-0 in Minnesota's last 3 games where they and their opponents have combined to score 208, 190 and 186 points. That 190-point effort came in a 103-87 home win over the Toronto Raptors, which is the same team they'll be playing tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 31-9 (78%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season. Minnesota is 13-2 to the UNDER versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=48% - 2nd half of the season since 1996. Toronto is 59-35 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996, including 19-6 to the UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Heat/Magic NBA on TNT No-Doubt Rout on Orlando PK

I'll take the Orlando Magic at home as a pick 'em against the Miami Heat Thursday. The home team has won both meetings this season, and I fully expect that to hold true tonight. It's going to be a tough atmosphere tonight for the Heat as Magic fans sell out the building. The Magic are 15-6 in their last 21 games overall, and coming off a loss they will be very hungry to get right back in the win column. Plus, Orlando is playing on 2 days' rest so they'll be fresh coming into this one.

This play falls into a system that is 47-17 (73%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). The Magic are 18-6 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.6 PPG. Orlando is scoring 102.0 PPG and allowing 91.4 PPG on their home floor. The Heat are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest, while the Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meeting, and the Heat are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Orlando. Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Jazz UNDER 204

Looking at Utah's injury report, it's easy to see why they have played in such low-scoring games here of late. The biggest reason is the fact that Deron Williams has been out with a wrist injury. Without him, they don't have someone who can push the tempo or get other players open looks. Williams is the heart and soul of this team, and the Jazz have been forced to put all of their focus on defense just so that they have a chance. Not only is Williams out tonight, but Mehmet okur and Andrei Kirilenko are also out. Utah is going to lost offensively.

This play falls into a system that is 33-10 (77%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. Houston will be tired tonight playing the second of a back-to-back after an overtime loss to the Lakers last night. The Jazz are 3-0 to the UNDER in 3 games without Williams, including an 81-96 loss to Golden State and an 83-78 victory over Charlotte for 177 and 161 combined points, respectively. Take the UNDER Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1.5

I really like the Knicks as basically a pick 'em at home Wednesday. New York owns a 13-9 record at home this season and are scoring 107.9 PPG in Madison Square Garden. Dallas struggles to score the basketball on the road this year, putting up just 95.6 PPG away from home. The Mavericks are just 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six road games. Their lone road win during this span came at New Jersey by a final of 87-86.

This play falls under a system that is 51-19 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdogs (DALLAS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games. The Knicks have played their best against winning teams, going 17-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. Dating back further, New York is 55-35 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Dallas fails to cover their 7th straight on the road tonight. Bet New York Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +10.5

The Atlanta Hawks are unreliable as a double-digit home favorite. The clear value in this game is with the road underdog in the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are showing such great value due to their 12-game losing streak coming into this one. Certainly it's hard for the betting public to jump on teams on long losing streaks, but it's not for me as I know that these teams often show the best value. Atlanta is just 4-4 in their last 8 games overall, including home losses to Houston (106-112) and New Orleans (59-100).

This play falls into a system that is 33-9 (79%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (TORONTO) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=48% on the season. Atlanta is 15-7 at home this season, but they are just 8-14 ATS and outscoring opponents by only 2.9 PPG. The Hawks are 1-9 ATS in home games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with Toronto Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 190

In a battle between two of the best defensive teams in the league, I'll side with the UNDER Tuesday. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers. Looking at the scores, I find tremendous value in this UNDER especially with all the injuries Portland is dealing with, including their leading scorer Brandon Roy still out. The Blazers and Spurs have combined to score 192 or less points in 7 straight meetings, and 189 or less in six of those seven contests. They have combined to score 189 or less in 8 of their last 10 meetings as well.

This play falls into a system that is 37-9 (80%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (PORTLAND) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Portland is 12-3 to the UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Spurs are 10-1 to the UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Spurs last 10 games following a S.U. win. San Antonio is 10-2 to the UNDER in their last 12 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 games as a home underdog. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Heat UNDER 200.5

This will be the third meeting of the season between Cleveland and Miami, so both teams are certainly familiar with one another. After they combined for 208 points in their first meeting in Cleveland, they only combined for 196 points in their second meeting in Miami. I expect this game to be even more low scoring and finish with fewer than 200 points with ease. Both teams are playing with no rest having played Sunday, with Cleveland losing 87-103 at Orlando and Miami winning 108-103 at Oklahoma City. That means we have two tired teams which will result in a slower-paced game.

This play falls into a system that is 33-8 (81%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games. Cleveland is only scoring 93.3 PPG on the road this season while Miami is allowing 93.3 PPG at home. Miami is 14-3 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. The Heat are 9-1 to the UNDER when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -3

I'm going to take the Denver Nuggets Monday as my strongest NBA release in non-conference play this season. Denver is clearly the superior team in this match-up, and coming off a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers they will certainly be hungry to get right back in the win column tonight. Denver is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with New Jersey. The Nets are down once again this season, posting a 14-34 record to this point.

This play falls under a system that is 28-5 (85%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (DENVER) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. The Nets are 6-20 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. New Jersey is 6-18 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. The Nets simply cannot keep up with this high-powered Nuggets team tonight. Bet Denver Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -1

While Phoenix had Saturday off, New Orleans did not. The Hornets lost a 96-102 showdown with the Sacramento Kings which put an abrupt end to their 10-game winning streak. Phoenix is obviously the fresher team and the Hornets will likely also suffer an emotional letdown after their long winning streak was snapped. This has been a very streaky New Orleans team all season. Phoenix comes in with a ton of confidence after beating Boston 88-71 last time out which put an end to their 3-game losing streak. Before that skid, the Suns had won 5 straight so they have been streaky as well.

This play falls under a system that is 34-10 (77%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team. The Suns are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Hornets overall and New Orleans has not win in Phoenix since 2008. The Hornets are 1-9 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Bet Phoenix Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets/76ers UNDER 208.5

I'll take the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers. Philly has been playing in low-scoring games all season, and they will control the tempo considering they are playing at home. The 76ers know they can't afford to get in a track meet with the Nuggets, so there's no question their stategy coming in is to make this a half-court game. The 76ers are scoring 98.9 PPG at home this season while allowing 93.3 PPG at home for an average combined score of 192.2 PPG.

This play falls into a system that is 34-8 (81%) to the UNDER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. The Nuggets are 30-15 to the UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 22-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 16-4 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 34-16-1 in 76ers last 51 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +6

The Charlotte Bobcats are simply a covering machine here of late. With a thrilling comeback win in their last contest, the Charlotte Bobcats have opened a season-high six-game road trip with three straight victories. Charlotte is 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

This play falls under a system that is 58-22 (72%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHARLOTTE) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games. Roll with the Bobcats Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Kings OVER 187

This total has been set far too low tonight, and I'll gladly take advantage. Seven of the last nine meetings in this series between Sacramento and New Orleans have seen 189 or more combined points.

This play falls into a system that is 50-19 (73%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, off a road win against a division rival. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.