25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +6.5

This is the series for the Boston Celtics.  They can't lose both home games to open the series if they want any chance of giving the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money.  I expect a big effort from the Celtics here with their back against the wall after losing Game 1.

The Celtics came out sluggish in Game 1 and fell behind by double-digits right away and could never recover.  I guess you could see that coming after just winning a Game 7 against the Wizards a couple days earlier.  They were probably still fatigued too.

But they weren't aggressive at all, time and time against settling for 3-pointers instead of attacking the basket.  They went 12-of-38 (31.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  Look for Isaiah Thomas and company to be in attack mode from the opening tip.

Boston is 15-3 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Cavs are 4-14 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Friday.

20* Cavs/Celtics Game 1 No-Brainer on Boston +5

I think the long layoff for the Cavs is more of a disadvantage than an advantage.  They haven't played since May 7th and will be rusty.  We saw the Warriors get blitzed by the Spurs in the first half of Game 1 after their long layoff.  I think the same thing happens here.

The Boston Celtics are far from tired despite playing a 7-game series.  Rest isn't an issue in the playoffs.  And the Celtics have only played four games in the past 10 days, which would be a great situation to back a team during the regular season.

One thing that really stands out to me and points out the line value in Game 1 is the regular season lines between these teams.  Boston was a 4-point favorite and a 1.5-point favorite in its two home meetings with Cleveland.  Now it is a +5 underdog in Game 1, which is a 9-point difference from their final regular season meeting of 2017 on April 5th.

Cleveland is 3-14 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Boston is 32-17 ATS when revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Celtics in Game 1 Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210

The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs are here because of defense.  In fact, these are the two best teams in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season.  The Spurs rank 1st at 100.9 points per 100 possessions allowed, while the Warriors are 2nd at 101.1.

The Warriors got way behind early against the Spurs in Game 1 and were playing at a frantic pace to try to get back in it the rest of the way.  That led to a high-scoring 113-111 final in the Warriors' favor.  I think Game 2 will be played much differently with the Warriors getting off to a much better start.

The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 210 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 meetings.  They have averaged just 202.8 combined points per game in those 10 meetings, showing that there's still a ton of value on the UNDER 210 here.  And leading scorer Kawhi Leonard is out now for the Spurs after getting injured in Game 1.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 53-16 (76.8%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (SAN ANTONIO) - after one or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 24-6 (80%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston -4.5

The Boston Celtics let one get away in Game 6, but credit to John Wall for hitting a clutch 3-pointer right before the buzzer.  And it kept the trend of the home team winning every game in this series this season alive.

In fact, the home team is now 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the 10 meetings between the Wizards and Celtics this season.  The home team has won nine of those 10 meetings by 8 points or more as they have basically all been blowouts outside of Game 6.

The Celtics' home domination of the Wizards has been mighty impressive.  They are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Wizards, winning all eight by 8 points or more.  Boston has outscored Washington by a total of 136 points in those eight games, or by an average of 17.0 points per game.

Boston is 8-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Boston is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  Bet the Celtics in Game 7 Monday.

20* Spurs/Warriors Game 1 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 212

The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs are here because of defense.  In fact, these are the two best teams in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season.  The Spurs rank 1st at 100.9 points per 100 possessions allowed, while the Warriors are 2nd at 101.1.

I think the Spurs could be fatigued here after a hard-fought seres with the Rockets, plus with the fact that they are without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard is very banged up and didn't play in Game 6.  And the Warriors will be rusty having last played on May 8th, both factors that should help contribute to the UNDER cashing.

The UNDER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings in this series.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for 210 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 200.4 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than Game 1's posted total of 212, providing plenty of value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.  The UNDER is 33-16-2 in Warriors last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - after one or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) over the last five seasons.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after scoring 105 points or more are 45-13 (77.6%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Wizards Game 6 No-Brainer on Boston +5

I know the home team has absolutely dominated this series this season, going 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in nine meetings.  However, I'm going against the grain here as I firmly believe the Boston Celtics close out the Wizards tonight, and we'll take the 5 points for some added insurance.

The Celtics made a big statement in Game 5 with their 123-101 victory.  The Wizards have to be a bit deflated after that defeat, and now all the pressure is on them to try and keep their season alive.  These players haven't been in this situation very often and I question how well they'll handle it.  The Celtics' players will be playing loose and free.

Boston is 15-6 ATS in road games after a game where it covered the spread this season.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Wizards are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on one days' rest.  Boston is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Friday.

20* Spurs/Rockets Game 6 No-Brainer on Houston -6.5

The Houston Rockets are the better team in this series.  They have outscored the Spurs despite being down 3-2 in this series.  They won their two games by 27 and 21 points.  I think we see a similar blowout tonight with their backs against the wall at home in Game 6.

The Spurs lost Tony Parker for the rest of the postseason a few games back, and now their best player in Kawhi Leonard is nursing knee and ankle injuries.  He got hurt in Game 5 and didn't return for the final five minutes of regulation or overtime.  The Spurs were fortunate to pull it out, but they have no chance of being competitive in Game 6 without him at near 100%.

The Spurs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win.  The Rockets are 19-10 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet the Rockets in Game 6 Thursday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -4.5

The Boston Celtics probably relaxed a bit too much following their 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS run in these playoffs that extended back to Game 3 of the Bulls' series.  They were blown out in their two games at Washington in Games 3 and 4.

But now they return home focused and determined to take back control of this series.  And I think we are getting the Celtics at a cheaper price than we should be here simply because they were blown out in both games in Washington.

Home-court advantage has been bigger in this series than any other in the playoffs.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Celtics are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Wizards, winning all seven by 8 points or more and by an average of 14.3 points per game.

Boston is 10-1 ATS in home games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games over the past three seasons.  It is winning by 14.8 points per game in this spot.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Houston +5.5

I still think the Houston Rockets are the better team in this series, so I'm likely to back them the rest of the way, just as I did in Game 4.  And the numbers have shown that they've been the better team.

The Rockets can score at will.  They have put up 125 and 126 points in their two victories in this series, and the Spurs are a great defensive team.  They have outscored the Spurs by 12 points in four games thus far.

The main theme for me is that the Spurs are too much of a one-man show with Kawhi Leonard, while the Rockets have a number of different players that can beat you outside of James Harden.  The Rockets simply have too many weapons for the Spurs.

Houston is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Rockets in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Jazz Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Utah +9

The Utah Jazz aren't the type of team that is just going to pack it in when trailing 0-3 in the series.  They are a prideful team that wants to put an end to a 9-game losing streak in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  And even if they don't win tonight, they can still easily cover as 9-point dogs.

The Jazz have at least been competitive in all three games, losing by 12, 11 and 11 points.  And they held a lead late against the Warriors before falling apart in the final few minutes to lose by 11 in Game 3.  Plus Steph Curry and Kevin Durant couldn't miss with Durant even banking in a 3-pointer at the end of the shot clock late.

Utah is 39-16 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% record or better) playing a team with a winning record are 73-38 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  Utah is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Jazz in Game 4 Monday.

20* Spurs/Rockets Game 4 No-Brainer on Houston -5.5

The Houston Rockets have lost the last two games of this series after winning Game 1 by 27 points.  It appears they have relaxed these last two games, but now they'll be going full throttle at home tonight to try and even this series at 2-2.

Houston scored 126 points in Game 1.  But it has let San Antonio dictate the tempo these past two games, being held to just 96 and 92 points, respectively.  Look for the Rockets to get back to pushing the tempo.  They're not going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 3 either when they shot 36.4%.

Houston is 8-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite this season.  The Spurs are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.  Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - double revenge - two straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Rockets in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Warriors/Jazz Game 3 No-Brainer on Utah +6.5

The Utah Jazz have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 30-14 at home this season.  They were at least competitive in their two games at Golden State, covering the spread in both games.  Now they are catching 6.5 points at home in Game 3 with the series basically on the line.  I look for a big effort from them here.

The Jazz have played the Warriors tough at home over the past few years.  They have gone 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Salt Lake City, not once losing by more than 7 points.  And the only non-cover came in overtime in a 96-103 loss as 4.5-point dogs last season.

Plays against favorites (Golden State) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home underdogs (UTAH) - revenging two straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off two no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite are 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996.

The Jazz are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Jazz in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Spurs/Rockets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -4

The Houston Rockets relaxed in Game 2 after throttling the Spurs 126-99 in Game 1.  They actually kept it close for three quarters before getting blown out in the 4th by the Spurs in Game 2.  The Spurs simply wanted that game more, but that won't be the case tonight as the series heads to Houston for Game 3.

I truly believe that the Rockets are the better team in this series and will win it when it's all said and done.  And Game 3 tonight is their chance to prove that they are the better team.  The Rockets have gone 33-11 at home this season and will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd.

James Harden will be motivated to redeem himself following a 3-for-17 shooting performance in Game 2.  And the problem remains for the Spurs that Kawhi Leonard has to do too much for them.  Now his task is even taller with starting PG Tony Parker out for the season with a torn quad muscle suffered in Game 2.  Leonard will have to handle the ball even more on offense for them, while also being tasked with guarding Harden on the other end.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Spurs are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.  Houston is 18-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Take the Rockets in Game 3 Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors +2

This same thing happened last year before the Raptors got back in the series in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cavs.  They were blown out in their first two games last year in Cleveland, but then rebounded to win Games 3 and 4 at home.  I think they'll repeat that feat again this year.

Home-court advantage has been huge the last two years in the playoffs in this series.  The home team is now 7-1 SU in the last eight playoff games between these teams  The only exception was a Cavs' win in Toronto in Game 6 last year to close out the series.  The Raptors are 30-14 at home this year, while the Cavs are a very vulnerable 22-21 on the road.

I think Cleveland is going to relax in Game 3 tonight.  The Cavaliers have won six straight games to open this postseason just as they did last year.  It's only human nature to relax when things have been going this well for them.  The fact of the matter is that the Raptors are going to want this game more, and that's going to show on the court and on the scoreboard.

Cleveland is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games off two straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Cavaliers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Raptors are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Friday.

20* Celtics/Wizards Game 3 No-Brainer on Washington -5.5

I've been riding the Boston Celtics with a ton of success during their 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS run in their last six games overall.  However, I'm going to switch gears here and take the Washington Wizards in Game 3.

This is do-or-die for the Wizards tonight.  It's a must-win game as they trail 2-0 after blowing Game 2 and eventually losing in overtime.  I look for them to respond in a big way at home tonight and to win by a comfortable margin.

The Wizards have had one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  They are 33-11 at home while scoring 110.3 points per game and shooting 48.1% from the field.  They are much more comfortable here in DC, and I look for John Wall to have a monster game to lead the way.

Boston is 2-10 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season.  The Celtics are 3-15 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Wizards in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +5.5

We were on the Houston Rockets in Game 1 of this series in a 126-99 victory.  They dominated from start to finish and led by 30 points at halftime.  The Spurs will give a better effort in Game 2, but the fact of the matter remains that the Rockets are the better team.

Getting 5.5 points in Game 2 is a real nice value when you look at the season series.  The Spurs have won three of five meetings, but they haven't won by more than 6 points, and three games have been decided by exactly 2 points.  The Rockets have been the better team in the season series.

The Spurs are vulnerable because they are so reliant on one player in Kawhi Leonard.  LaMarcus Aldridge has been a no-show, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli don't have much left in the tank, and Danny Green is on the downside of his career as well.  Meanwhile, the Rockets are a complete team that can beat you even if James Harden is having an off game, which is rare.

Houston is 13-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Houston is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four Conference Semifinals games.  Bet the Rockets in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -5

The Boston Celtics have been on a roll ever since Isaiah Thomas returned from his first trip to Washington to see his family.  His mind has been more set at ease, and the Celtics' players have rallied around him during their impressive 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS streak coming in to Game 2.

The Celtics have been much more efficient offensively as they have scored at least 104 points in five straight games.  But perhaps the biggest difference has been defense as they've allowed 97 or fewer points in four of their last five.  This is a locomotive right now that you do not want to step in front of.

The Wizards were shelled for 123 points on 51.1% shooting by the Celtics in Game 1.  Not having Ian Mahinmi really hurts their defense, and now forward Markieff Morris has an ankle injury that he suffered in Game 1.  The Celtics really pulled away once Morris went out with that injury.

The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Wizards.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on Houston +6

The Houston Rockets put the Oklahoma City Thunder away in five games and now have had extra rest heading into this series with the San Antonio Spurs.  They haven't played since April 25th and will be ready to go in this series, one that I think they win against a vulnerable Spurs squad.

Getting 6 points in Game 1 is a real nice value when you look at the regular season series.  Yes, the Spurs won three of four meetings, but all four games were decided by 6 points or less, including three by exactly 2 points.  There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well.

The Spurs are vulnerable because they are so reliant on one player in Kawhi Leonard.  LaMarcus Aldridge has been a no-show, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli don't have much left in the tank, and Danny Green is on the downside of his career as well.  Meanwhile, the Rockets are a complete team that can beat you even if James Harden is having an off game, which is rare.

Houston is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Rockets are 13-2 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  Houston is 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this year.  The Spurs are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Rockets in Game 1 Monday.

20* Jazz/Clippers Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3.5

The road team has actually won four of the six games in this series.  That is unheard of in a playoff series, and I don't expect that trend to continue in this do-or-die Game 7.  I think that trend has offered us some tremendous line value on the Clippers here laying only 3.5 points.

The Clippers still have the best player in the series in Chris Paul, who has just been a monster in the fourth quarter all series and who I trust more than anyone to get the job done.  And the healthy return of Austin Rivers has been huge as well.  His defense on Gordon Hayward has been great, but he also scored 13 points and hit three 3-pointers in Game 6.

Utah is 17-31 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  Rudy Gobert suffered an ankle injury in the second half of Game 6 and wasn't the same player down the stretch.  I have a hard time believing it will be heeled in time for Game 7, which could be a huge factor in the outcome.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6

The Los Angeles Clippers are tired of early exits in the playoffs.  With Chris Paul healthy, they still have a shot to win this series, and I think they go on the road and get another huge win in Utah like Game 3.  Getting the 6 points here is just an added bonus.

Each of the last three games really could have gone either way.  All three were basically toss-up games in the final minutes, and the Jazz managed to win two of the three thanks to some late-game heroics from Joe Johnson.  I certainly do not believe he can keep up his level of play.

The fact of the matter is that the role players are due for the Clippers.  Both JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford have been off the entire series, but they are too good of shooters to stay cold forever.  And Doc Rivers has more options now to go small and match the Jazz with Austin Rivers healthy.  That small ball lineup got them back into the game in Game 5.

Utah is 2-12 ATS in home games after covering four of its last five against the spread over the past three seasons.  The Clippers are still 19-5 SU in their last 24 meetings with the Jazz.  Look for an inspired effort from them tonight as they try and send this series back to Los Angeles.  Take the Clippers in Game 6 Friday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 6 No-Brainer on Atlanta -3

The home team has won all five meetings in this series, and I think that holds true again here in Game 6.  I would argue that the Hawks have been the better team in this series thus far and should be favored by more at home here.

Atlanta won its two home games by a combined 28 points, while Washington won its three home games by a combined 19 points.  So, the Hawks have actually outscored the Wizards by a combined 9 points in this series thus far despite playing three of five games on the road.

Atlanta has plenty of playoff experience to rely on over the past few years in this do-or-die situation.  Meanwhile, John Wall and the Wizards basically have zero experience in close-out games, which are the toughest to win.

The Hawks are a perfect 9-0 ATS after two consecutive division games over the last two seasons.  Washington is 10-24 ATS in road games versus teams who average 23 or more assists per game over the last three seasons.  Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet the Hawks in Game 6 Friday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio -4

The home team has won every meeting in this series dating back to the regular season, which is nine straight games.  I was on the Grizzlies in Game 3 and 4 at home, but I have a better feeling today that the Spurs are going to close it out tonight.

The Spurs have clearly been the better team in this series, winning all three home meetings by 13 points or more.  They have outscored the Grizzlies by 43 points in this series, an average of 8.6 points per game.  The Grizzlies were fortunate to win in overtime in Game 4, and I think their luck runs out tonight.

Expect Greg Popovich to challenge his team here to get a road win knowing that they are going to need them down the road if they want to reach their ultimate goal.  And the Rockets are sitting at home waiting on them, so the Spurs don't want this to go to a Game 7 and give the Rockets and even bigger advantage.  They'll be 'all in' tonight to finish the job.  Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Bulls/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston -7.5

The Boston Celtics have really played up to their potential in the past two games.  They were out of it after Isaiah Thomas lost his sister, but after he went home to be with his family following two home losses to Chicago, he and the Celtics have come back a completely different team.

They dominated from start to finish in a 104-87 win in Game 3 as 2.5-point road favorites.  Then they jumped out to a big lead early, lost it, and then pulled away in the 4th quarter of a 104-95 win as 1.5-point road favorites in Game 4.

A key in this turnaround has been the loss of Rajon Rondo as the Bulls have been helpless on offense without him.  And while there is talk of Rondo possibly returning tonight, he won't be effective at all considering he has a broken thumb on his shooting hand.  It would do the Bulls more harm than good to have him in there.

It will be a raucous atmosphere in Boston tonight, and I think these players are going to be extra motivated to put on a great performance after disappointing their fans in the first two home games.  There's nothing the Bulls can do to halt their momentum right now.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Jazz/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

The Los Angeles Clippers did not play up to their standards defensively in Utah, giving up 52.2% shooting and 106 points in Game 3, and 54.1% and 105 points in Game 4.  They still managed to split 1-1 and easily could have won both.  Look for them to be much better on defense when they return home for a huge Game 5 Tuesday night.

The Jazz are in trouble right now because they are relying too much on the likes of Joe Johnson and Joe Ingles to make plays for them.  Johnson, Ingles and Rodney Hood caught fire late in Game 4 to erase an 8-point deficit in the 4th and win, but that's unlikely to happen again in Utah.

Rudy Gobert isn't 100%, and Gordon Hayward missed most of Game 4 due to food poisoning.  It's uncertain if Hayward will be back for Game 5, and even if he is he certainly won't be feeling anywhere near 100%.

The Clippers have had a huge home-court advantage all season, going 30-13 straight up.  They basically just have to win this game to cover the 3-point spread.  And they still own the Jazz, going 19-4 in their last 23 meetings.  I trust in veteran Chris Paul to lead this team to victory even without Blake Griffin as Paul is by far their most important player.

Utah is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 157-99 (61.3%) ATS since 1996.   The Jazz are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 4 No-Brainer on Atlanta -2

I would argue that the Atlanta Hawks have been the better team in this series despite being down 2-1.  They were in both games in Washington in losses by 7 and 8 points before fading late.  Then they blew out the Wizards by 18 in Game 3, and now they actually are +3 in point differential in the series.

What I like about the Hawks is how aggressive they have been in getting to the basket.  They shot 39 free throws in Game 1, 38 in Game 2 and 32 in Game 3.  The Wizards haven't been able to keep Dennis Shroeder out of the paint as he's averaging 25 points in this series.  I also like how Schroeder picked Wall up defensively full court in Game 3, making it more difficult for the Wizards to get into their offense.

"I watched video," Schroder said. "The first two games it was too easy to just bring it up half-court and have all these passes. I told Coach I want to be in his stuff. I want to take him full court. That's what I did (Saturday), and it worked well."

The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wizards are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games playing on 1 days rest.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Hawks in Game 4 Monday.

15* Clippers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT On Utah -2.5

The Utah Jazz let the Los Angeles Clippers off the hook in Game 3.  The blew an 8-point lead late as Chris Paul simply took over down the stretch.  The Clippers rallied around each other after losing Blake Griffin to an injury, and they came through with a huge win.

But now it's the Jazz turn to get a big win here and get right back in this series.  They can't afford to go back to Los Angeles down 3-1.  I look for a big effort from them here behind a raucous home crowd.  The Jazz are 29-13 at home this season and have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.

Make no mistake, the Clippers aren't going anywhere now that Griffin is out for the rest of the postseason.  The Clippers just haven't been the same without him in the past, and they really can't afford to lose him, Paul or DeAndre Jordan.  The loss of Griffin for the Clippers is bigger than the loss of Rudy Gobert for the Jazz.

Utah is 37-16 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - off a home loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Jazz in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Bulls Game 4 No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

The Boston Celtics were distracted with the death of Isaiah Thomas' sister in the first two games.  But he went home after Game 2 and spent time with his family to grieve.  In Game 3, players rallied around him and got back to focusing on basketball, and the end result was a dominant 104-87 win.

The Celtics also got a motivational speech from Kevin Garnett, the former Boston great.  Every player to a man said it was the difference, and I believe them.  But with the Celtics still having their backs against the wall, this Game 4 remains a must-win, and I think we see another big effort from them.

Boston got a break when Rajon Rondo suffered a broken thumb in Game 2.  Now he's out indefinitely, and he was nearly averaging a triple-double in the first two games.  The Bulls simply don't have a good backup point guard, so Rondo's absence is huge for them.  It puts more pressure on Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade to handle the ball, but they are much better playing off the ball and letting Rondo run the show.

The Bulls are just 3-10 in their last 13 playoff home games, including three straight losses.  I just don't think their home-court advantage is enough for them to overcome the loss of Rondo.  The Celtics are the far superior team in this matchup and that will be shown again in Game 4.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks were competitive in Games 1 and 2 in Washington, losing by 7 and 8 points.  They did not finish either game well as they had a chance to win down the stretch.  But now with their backs against the wall, I expect their best effort of the series as the head home for Game 3.

Adding to the Hawks' motivation is the fact that they have now lost five straight meetings with the Wizards dating back to the regular season.  It's safe to say that they are going to want this game more, and I expect them to get it in front of their home fans tonight.

Washington is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after two straight games where it committed 7 or fewer turnovers than its opponents.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Clippers seemed to relax when Rudy Gobert went out with an injury in Game 1.  They lost that game on a buzzer-beater by Joe Johnson, but they came back focused in Game 2 and got the job done in a 99-91 victory.

Now Gobert remains out for the Jazz tonight, and it's a huge loss for them.  Look for the Clippers to seize the opportunity and take Game 3 to regain home-court advantage.  They are clearly the more talented team and still own the Jazz, going 19-3 SU in their last 22 meetings.

Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have all put up huge numbers through the first two games.  But the role players have really struggled, and they won't continue to.  Jamal Crawford is shooting a paltry 29.2% and is 0-for-9 from 3-point range.  J.J. Redick is averaging just 5.5 points and shooting 20% from 3-point range in this series.  Look for these two to be much more efficient moving forward.

Plays against underdogs (UTAH) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 55-17 (76.4%) ATS since 1996.  The road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take the Clippers in Game 3 Friday.

20* Celtics/Bulls ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

It is gut check time for the Boston Celtics in Game 3 tonight.  The Celtics inexplicably lost the first two games in this series at home, and now they know that their season is on the line tonight.  It's basically win or go home here.

The death of Isaiah Thomas' sister was a huge distraction in the first two games as the Celtics were clearly out of it.  But Thomas went home to his family after Game 2 to deal with it.  Now he'll come back with a clearer mind in Game 3, and I think the players will rally around him in one of their best efforts of the season.

The Celtics got a big break when it was announced that Rajon Rondo suffered a broken thumb in Game 2 and is now out indefinitely.  There will be a huge void at the PG position for the Bulls now because Rondo was playing very well, averaging 11.5 points, 10.0 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game in this series.

The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Bulls are 10-23 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.  Boston is 41-27 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Friday.

20* Cavs/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +2.5

The Indiana Pacers are the worst road team in the playoffs.  However, they managed to take the Cavs down to the wire on the road in each of the first two games of this series, losing by 1 and 6 points, respectively.  Now they'll be laying it all on the line to get a win in Game 3 and get back in this series.

And they should do just that now that they are returning to Indiana, where they are one of the best home teams in the playoffs.  The Pacers have gone 29-12 at home this season.  They have now gone 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Cavaliers actually had a losing record on the road this season.  They went 20-21 SU & 17-24 ATS on the road this year.  The Pacers have gone 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Indiana.

Indiana is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games playing on two days' rest.  The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six Conference Quarterfinals games.  The Cavaliers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Thunder/Rockets Game 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 1.  They only managed 87 points and shot just 37% from the field.  Expect them to come back with a much better effort in Game 2 and to stay within the number as they try and steal this one.

"Looking at video, it was definitely down to positioning and getting those reads on when to go," Thunder center Steven Adams said. "You can't be premature about it, otherwise they do what they do. We cleared it up a lot more, bigs and guards. We've got to make sure we come out more aggressive, aggressive and physicality. Forcing them to do stuff rather than letting them do stuff."

Three of the four meetings during the regular season went right down to the wire and were decided by 3 points or less.  I expect this one to hold true to form and to go down to the last few possessions, so getting the Thunder are +8 is a huge value here.

Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 2 days' rest.  The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -8.5

After Rudy Gobert went out with an injury on the first possession of Game 1, the Clippers appeared to relax and think that they would win the game by just showing up.  That wasn't the case as the Jazz rallied around Gobert and stole Game 1.

I think that with that wake-up call, the Clippers will put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight.  Gobert remains out for Game 2, meaning that the Clippers will have a massive advantage inside.  Look for monster games from Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in this one as Los Angeles evens this series in blowout fashion.

This has been a very one-sided series over the last several years.  Indeed, the Clippers are 18-3 in their last 21 meetings with the Jazz.  Utah is 2-10 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last two seasons.  The Jazz are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Clippers in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -7

After losing Game 1 to the Bulls, I fully expect the Boston Celtics to bounce back in a big way in Game 2.  Look for them to win this game going away similar to their 100-80 home win over the Bulls in their final regular season meeting.

The Isaiah Thomas news with his sister passing away really was a down for this team.  Now that they've had a few extra days to cope with it, I think they'll come back more focused tonight and get back to playing their brand of basketball.

Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 9-23 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 16-30 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers know they can play with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They took them to double-OT in Cleveland in their final meeting of the regular season on April 2nd, and then they had a chance to win it at the buzzer in a 108-109 loss in Game 1 Saturday.

The Pacers had to win each of their final five regular season games just to make the playoffs.  They are clearly playing their best basketball of the season right now, going a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers as 8.5-point dogs here in Game 2.

The Cavaliers actually have a losing record since the All-Star Break.  The betting public just thinks that they can turn it on the playoffs, but I don't think that's going to be the case.  We'll make some good money fading them throughout the postseason.

The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Conference Quarterfinal Games.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Cleveland is 18-38-1 ATS in its last 57 vs. division opponents, while Indiana is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 vs. division foes.  The Pacers are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

Russell Westbrook got some much-needed rest over the final week of the regular season and will be ready to go in the playoffs.  That's important because the Thunder get outscored by 9 points per 100 possessions when he's not on the court, and outscore their opponents by 3 points per 100 when he is on the floor.

Westbrook only averages 34 minutes per game in the regular season.  That will be closer to 40 minutes in the postseason as Billy Donovan knows he needs Westbrook on the floor as much as possible.  That adjustment will make the Thunder a much better team throughout the course of a 48-minute game.

Yes, Houston won three of four meetings with OKC this season, but three of them were decided by 3 points or less.  I have a good feeling this game is going to go right down to the wire.  The Rockets come in playing their worst ball of the season, going 0-9 ATS in their last nine games.  I don't think they can just flip on the switch, either.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Jazz/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are the second-best team in the Western Conference when healthy in my opinion.  They battled through injuries to several key players this season, including Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, but now they are full healthy entering the playoffs.

And as they've chased down the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round, they've played their best basketball of the season now healthy.  Indeed, the Clippers are 7-0 in their last seven games overall, including five straight double-digit victories.  They needed all seven wins to fend off the Jazz for the No. 4 seed.

The Jazz are an up-and-coming team that is going to be a playoff contender for the foreseeable future.  However, not many of the key players on the Jazz like Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward have playoff experience, so they will be at a disadvantage in that respect.

The Clippers simply own the Jazz, going 18-2 SU in the last 20 meetings.  They won three of four meetings this season all by 13 points or more.  Utah is 1-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Jazz are 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* Pacers/Cavs 2017 NBA Playoffs Opener on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the playoffs.  They needed to win their final five games of the season just to get into the playoffs, and that's precisely what they did.  In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all five of their wins coming by 9 points or more.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone in the opposite direction.  Needing to win just two of their final four games to get the No. 1 seed in the East, they instead went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in those four contests.  They gave up at least 114 points in three of the four losses, and defense has been a problem with this team all season.

The Pacers were very competitive with the Cavaliers in the regular season.  They did go just 1-3 SU, but two of their losses came by single-digits, including the latest in double-overtime in Cleveland in a 130-135 loss on April 2nd.  They believe they can play with the Cavs, which is half the battle.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in road games when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Pacers are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets +5

The Denver Nuggets could have easily packed it in after getting eliminated from the playoffs with two games to go.  Instead, they went out and handled their business last night, dismantling the Mavericks 109-91 on the road.  Now they have a chance to get to 40 wins in their final game of the season, and I think they'll be the more motivated team here.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.  Russell Westbrook rested in their last game, and he's unlikely to play many minutes tonight.  The Thunder are way more concerned about staying healthy and fresh for the playoffs than winning this game tonight.

Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, and I think that benefits the Nuggets more because they are the deeper team.  This situation will only force the Thunder to get as much rest as possible for their key players.

Denver is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  Plays against any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Minnesota Timberwolves just completed a brutal four-game road trip with trips to the Warriors, Blazers, Jazz and Lakers.  They were competitive the entire trip and clearly have not quit.  Now they return home to play their final home game of the season and will want to go out a winner in front of their fans.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the West.  Russell Westbrook just got his record-setting 42nd triple double last time out, so they don't need to focus on that either.  Don't be surprised one bit if Billy Donovan decided to rest his starters these final two games.

The line move in this game suggests that he will rest his starters, or at least limit their minutes.  The Timberwolves opened as -1 favorites and have already been bet up to -4, and I see it going much higher before the game starts.  It would be foolish of the Thunder to go all out in this game.

Oklahoma City is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  The Timberwolves are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with OKC.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Clippers TNT Monday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7

The Los Angeles Clippers are tied with the Utah Jazz at 49-31.  These teams will play in the first round of the playoffs, but home-court advantage is still at stake.  The Clippers own the tiebreaker so they control their own destiny here.

And the Clippers have certainly been fighting to make sure they get home court in the first round.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, winning all five games by at least 6 points, and four of those by 9 points or more.  They are hitting on all cylinders heading into the playoffs.

The Rockets have pretty much been locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West for a while now.  As a result, their play has suffered as they are just 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This game means absolutely nothing to them, and they could rest players since they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  This will be just the 3rd game in 9 days for the Clippers.

The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Los Angeles.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Denver Nuggets -4

The Denver Nuggets need a win Sunday or they'll be officially eliminated from the playoffs.  They have played well under this pressure down the stretch, going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of them on the road.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to play for as they are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.  That showed in their effort last time out as they lost 99-120 as 9-point road favorites at Phoenix, failing to cover the spread by 30 points.

Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who score at least 106 points per game in the second half of hte season this season.  The Nuggets are 47-23-1 ATS in their last 71 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* Clippers/Spurs ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are fighting for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference.  They trail the Utah Jazz by just one game for that spot, which would give them home-court advantage in that upcoming series.  The Jazz have a tough game in Portland tonight.

The San Antonio Spurs have nothing to play for right now.  They are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  As a result, there's no way they should be favored in this game when they don't care about it, while the Clippers really need it.

And the Clippers have a huge advantage in rest and preparation here.  They have won four straight coming in and have had the last two days off, and they'll be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA today.

Bets against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 212-137 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.  The underdog is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings.  Take the Clippers Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

The Boston Celtics have lost two in a row and now are not only in a tough spot to get the No. 1 seed, but also in jeopardy of losing the No. 2 seed.  They trail the Cavs by one game for the No. 1 and lead the Raptors by one game for the No. 2.  Simply put, they will be highly motivated for a win tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Charlotte Hornets, who aren't mathematically eliminated, but essentially are eliminated from the playoffs.  That's because they are three games behind both the No. 7 Bulls and No. 8 Pacers for the last two playoff spots.  There is only three games to play, so you do the math.  I don't expect the Hornets to show up at all tonight.

The Celtics simply own the Hornets.  They are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They won by 10 and 8 at home earlier this season, and also by 6 on the road.  Now they will cap off the season sweep of the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Charlotte is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS in Saturday home games this season.  Bets on road teams (BOSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 114-57 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Celtics Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +5.5

The Miami Heat are a half-game behind both the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers for the 7th and 8th spots in the playoffs, respectively.  A win tonight would get them back in as they own the tiebreaker over the Pacers, so they will be highly motivated for a victory here.

The Toronto Raptors are playing for nothing other than playoff positioning.  There isn't a whole lot of difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 seed, which the Raptors are currently in.  They certainly don't need this game as much as the Heat do.

The Heat will be well-rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while this will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Raptors.  Toronto needed a 20-point comeback to beat Detroit 105-102 on Wednesday, a Pistons team that really had nothing to play for.

The Heat are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.  Better yet, Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Heat are 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 games overall.  Bet the Heat Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers are in a three-way tie with the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference.  Unfortunately for them, they lose the tiebreaker to both teams, so they are on the outside looking in right now.

They'll clearly be motivated as a result, and I like what I saw from them in a 108-90 home win over the Raptors on Tuesday after losing in double-overtime to Cleveland on the road the game prior.  Lance Stephenson gave them a spark in the second half, and Paul George is on a tear, averaging 31.3 points in his last eight games.

"I'm dialed in," George told Pacers.com. "Whatever it takes to get it, I'm going to work my butt off and try to get us on the right path. Every night I am going to try and put it all out on that floor."

The Milwaukee Bucks are only playing for either the 5th or 6th seed, so not nearly as much is at stake for them.  And they are playing like it, getting upset 105-109 as 6.5-point home favorites against the Mavs, and getting blown out 79-110 at Oklahoma City as 6-point dogs in their last two games coming in.

The Pacers had lost the first three meetings of the season to the Raptors before beating them by 18 last time out.  Well, they'll also be looking to avoid the season sweep after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Bucks as well.  That will only add to their motivation tonight.

Indiana is 27-12 at home this season.  The Pacers are 14-4 ATS in a home game with a total of 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Pacers are 21-10 ATS vs. division opponents over the past two seasons.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* Warriors/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10

The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued right now due to winning 12 straight games coming in.  This winning streak has allowed them to clinch the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, which means they have nothing to play for the rest of the way.

Now the Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days tonight, so they are extremely tired right now.  That's why they are expected to rest both Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala tonight, and Kevin Durant isn't expected to return until Saturday.

The Phoenix Suns are undervalued due to losing 12 straight coming in, but they have been competitive of late, going 4-2 ATS in their last six games.  That includes a 6-point loss to the Clippers, a 10-point loss at Boston, a 4-point loss at Atlanta, and a 7-point loss to Houston.  They will show up for the Warriors tonight at home.

Phoenix is 24-12 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Phoenix is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Golden State.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +8.5

The Denver Nuggets have gone on the road and pulled off back-to-back upset wins over the Heat and Pelicans to pull within a half-game of the Portland Trail Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a win in Houston tonight.

Conversely, the Houston Rockets are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, so they have nothing to play for the rest of the way.  That has started to show as they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  And now they are dealing with some key injuries as both Sam Dekker (hand) and Ryan Anderson (ankle) are out, while Trevor Ariza (personal) and James Harden (flu) are both questionable tonight.

The Nuggets will want revenge from losing each of the first three meetings with the Rockets this season and avoiding the season sweep.  The last two have been excruciating as they lost 109-105 at home, and 124-125 on the road.  I think they'll easily stay within this 8.5-point spread, possibly pulling off the upset tonight.

The Nuggets are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs a team with a winning record.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are tied with the Miami Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They lose the tiebreaker, so they need to actually gain a game on the Heat the rest of the way to get in.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight, especially after four straight losses coming in, including a double-OT hearbreaker against the Cavs last time out.

The good news for the Pacers is that they'll be playing on their home floor tonight, where they have been dominant all season.  The Pacers are 26-12 at home this year.  They are clearly undervalued right now due to their recent skid, and they want revenge from a 100-111 loss at Toronto on March 31st just a few days ago.

Conversely, the Raptors come in overvalued due to going 8-1 in their last nine games overall.  This entire run has come against teams seeded 7th or worst in the playoff standings currently.  They have beaten up on some bad teams, but they will get some resistance from a Pacers team tonight that is desperate for a win.

The home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Indiana is 24-13 ATS in home games revenging a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Nets UNDER 217

The Atlanta Hawks have really struggled to score without Paul Millsap.  That's why they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.  They have been held to 100 or fewer points in nine of those 10 contests.  The UNDER is 8-1 in their last nine games as a result.

I like the fact that the Nets and Hawks just played a week ago, and this will actually be their 3rd meeting in a month.  They combined for 199 points a week ago, and 215 points in the meeting prior.  They are obviously very familiar with each other now, and familiarity favors the defenses.

In fact, the Hawks and Nets have combined for 215 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 12 straight meetings.  That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 217.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.v

15* Jazz/Spurs ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Utah +5.5

The San Antonio Spurs are essentially locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  They aren't catching the Warriors, and they are way ahead of the Rockets.  I question their motivation the rest of the regular season as a result.

Greg Popovich is taking the conservative approach already.  LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobli and Danny Green are all expected to miss today's game due to either minor injuries or rest.  So the Spurs will be short-handed for this matchup already.

Unlike the Spurs, the Jazz actually have something to play for.  The lead the Clippers by just one game for the 4th seed, which would give them home-court advantage in the first round.  The Jazz have been fighting to hold on to that seed, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games coming in.

Utah is 37-14 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  The Jazz are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Sunday games.  The Spurs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4.5

The Chicago Bulls got a big break yesterday when BOTH the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers lost.  That means they are just 0.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the East as they sit at 36-39, while both the Pacers and Heat are 37-39.  They can pull even with them with a win today.

The Bulls will be well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  And they'll come in with confidence after pulling off back-to-back upsets 109-94 at Milwaukee as 6.5-point dogs, and 99-93 at home over Cleveland as 5.5-point dogs.

The Atlanta Hawks are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall.  Their two wins were struggles over Phoenix (by 4) and Philadelphia (by 7).  They are 2-8 without Paul Millsap this season.  Millsap will be out again Saturday, as will their best defender in Thobo Sefolosha, who would usually match up with Jimmy Butler.

The Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2.5

We're getting the Utah Jazz at a discount at home tonight as only 2.5-point favorites over the Washington Wizards.  The Jazz are motivated to earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and they have played like it their past two games.

Rudy Gobert called out his team following a 95-108 loss to the Clippers on Saturday.  His team has responded by beating the Pelicans 108-100 as 6-point home favorites, and then throttling the Kings 112-82 as 7.5-point road favorites.

The Jazz are 25-12 at home this season and own one of the better home-court advantages in the league.  The Wizards are 17-19 on the road this season.  This will be the 3rd game in 4 days, 5th game in 8 days and the 15th game in 25 days for the Wizards.  They have had a brutal schedule 11 of their last 15 games on the road and they are simply running out of gas right now.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Wizards are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Heat UNDER 207

This is a classic home-and-home situation in the NBA.  The Heat just beat the Knicks 105-88 on the road on Wednesday, and now they face each other two days later in Miami.  I also like backing the UNDER in the second meeting in these situations because familiarity favors the defenses.

And these teams combined for only 193 points in the first meeting, and now the total has been set at 207 for the rematch, a full 14 points more.  I think there's some serious value with the UNDER, especially when you look at the head-to-head history in this series.

Indeed, the Knicks and Heat have combined for 204 or fewer points in 28 o their last 29 meetings.  That makes for a 28-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 207.  These are bitter rivals and defense usually wins out.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers +2

The Portland Trail Blazers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  This run has put them into the 8th seed in the Western Conference, just one game ahead of the Denver Nuggets.

While the Blazers have everything to play for, the Rockets are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West.  I expect them to lack focus down the stretch as a result knowing that winning or losing doesn't matter to them now.

And this is an awful spot for the Rockets.  They are coming off a loss to the Warriors on Tuesday, and now they have a huge game against Golden State on deck tomorrow where they'll be looking for revenge.  I don't expect them to show up at all tonight given the spot.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

20* Warriors/Spurs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on San Antonio -4

The San Antonio Spurs have played their best basketball against the NBA's top teams.  Indeed, they are 9-1 against the top four teams in the NBA in the Warriors, Cavs, Rockets and Celtics this season.  Their only loss was by two points in November to the Rockets.

The Golden State Warriors are in a tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating Houston 113-106 on the road last night.  They will certainly be the more tired team considering the Spurs had yesterday off following their 103-74 thrashing of Cleveland on Monday.

The Spurs have absolutely owned the Warriors in both meetings this season.  They won 129-100 as 8-point road underdogs on October 25th and 107-85 as 10.5-point home favorites on March 11th.  Look for them to improve to 3-0 against the Warriors this season and inch closer to the No. 1 seed in the West tonight.

Golden State is 6-16 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  San Antonio is 19-6 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Golden State.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -1.5

The Portland Trail Blazers have fought their way back into an 8th-place tie with the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference.  Now they get to host the Nuggets tonight, and they aren't about to let this golden opportunity slip by.

The Blazers have put themselves in this position by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Indeed, they've gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Each of their last five victories have come by 11 points or more, so these games really haven't even been close.

The Blazers have owned the Nuggets, too.  They are 5-1 in the last six meetings, and 13-2 in the last 15 meetings.  The Blazers are 30-11 straight up in their last 41 home meetings, including 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Portland.

Portland is 13-2 ATS after a combined score of 185 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Indiana Pacers are 26-11 at home this season.  They have the biggest home/away difference in the league this year.  We'll back them at home here against a struggling Minnesota Timberwolves team with nothing to play for.

The Timberwolves have gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are clearly just playing out the string.  But they've also had a brutal schedule with 11 of their last 15 games on the road, and this tough slate appears to be catching up with them.

Bets against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more are 64-29 (68.8%) ATS since 1996.

Indiana is 13-3 ATS in home games where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  Minnesota is 14-30 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The Pacers are 5-1 ATS int heir last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the Pacers Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +2

The Dallas Mavericks are 3.5 games behind the Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They need to finish strong to have any hope, and I like their chances of taking down the Oklahoma City Thunder at home tonight.

This is an awful spot for the Thunder, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 125-137 loss at Houston yesterday.  That shootout clearly took a lot out of them.  Russell Westbrook played 39 minutes in the defeat.

Oklahoma City is 1-9 ATS in road games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread this season.  The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Dallas is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Warriors UNDER 207.5

This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between the Grizzlies and Warriors.  It's safe to say that these teams are very familiar with each other by now, and familiarity tends to favor defensive battles.  I expect that to be the case in this game Sunday.

The Warriors have been an UNDER machine since losing Kevin Durant to injury.  In fact, the UNDER is 14-1 in Warriors last 15 games overall.  Now they're up against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies, who have allowed 97 or fewer points in each of their last six games coming in.

Memphis is 9-1 UNDER after covering four of their last five against hte spread this season.  Golden State is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four road games.  The UNDER is 70-34-1 in Warriors last 105 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Mavs UNDER 194

The Dallas Mavericks have gotten better defensively since trading for elite rim protector Nerlens Noel from Philadelphia. The Toronto Raptors have struggled offensively since losing PG Kyle Lowry to injury.  I think this game makes for an easy UNDER winner today.

After all, Toronto just beat Dallas 100-78 at home on March 13th for 178 combined points.  Now these teams meet up less than two weeks later in Dallas, and they are obviously very familiar with one another now.  That will familiarity will certainly favor the UNDER again in the rematch.

Toronto is 24-8 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Dallas is 8-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Toronto is 14-3 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Raptors last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Mavericks last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -6

Don't look now but the Milwaukee Bucks are sitting in 6th place in the Eastern Conference just one game behind Atlanta for the No. 5 seed.  Just a few weeks ago it was looking like the Bucks wouldn't even make the playoffs.

But they have buckled down and played their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They've gone 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, including a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home over this span with all five wins coming by 7 points or more.

The Atlanta Hawks are stuck in strugglesville thanks to key injuries to Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore, both of which are expected to sit out tonight.  They are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with four of those losses coming by 8 or more points.  It's hard to envision them being able to hang with the Bucks without Millsap and Bazemore tonight.

Bets against road underdogs (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 61-24 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +12

The Brooklyn Nets don't have to tank because they are essentially guaranteed to finish with the worst record in the NBA. As a result, they have been playing their best basketball of the season of late.  They are 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

The Washington Wizards were on fire going into the All-Star Break, but they came out of it overvalued because of it.  And that has shown in the market place as the Wizards are just 4-12 ATS since the Break.  They have gone 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

This is an awful spot for the Wizards, who will be looking ahead to their huge game tomorrow night against the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road.  They won't be focused on the Nets, certainly not enough to put them away by 12-plus points.  Look for them to struggle to even win this game, let alone win by margin.

Washington is 4-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Bets against home favorites of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 76-34 (69.1%) ATS since 1996.   The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference.  Take the Nets Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 198.5

This will be the 2nd meeting in 6 days for the Spurs and Grizzlies.  They met up on March 18th in Memphis with the Grizzlies winning 104-96.  Now they are very familiar with one another, and that familiarity favors a defensive battle in the rematch that stays UNDER this 198.5-point total.

This has been a low-scoring series to say the least.  Nine of the last 12 meetings have seen less than 198.5 combined points.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  They have averaged 183.9 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.5.

Memphis is 15-4 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 39% or better over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Grizzlies last seven Thursday games.  The UNDER is 12-4-1 in Spurs last 17 games following a win.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Antonio.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a covering machine, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are a ridiculous 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games overall, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games coming in.

Now they are catching a whopping 10.5 points against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is in a terrible spot.  The Thunder will suffer a hangover from their home loss to the Warriors on Monday.  They also have a huge game at Houston on deck, so this is a sandwich game for them.

Philadelphia is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The 76ers are 13-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the 76ers.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally starting to play up to their potential with DeMarcus Cousins.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to continue their playoff push.  In their three home games during this stretch, all three resulted in blowouts over Portland (by 23), Houston (by 16) and Minnesota (by 14).

The Memphis Grizzlies also come in playing well.  They had lost five straight prior to their current four-game winning streak.  But they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now, and this is clearly a letdown spot off their upset home win over the Spurs last time out.

Not only is this a letdown spot, but it's also a lookahead spot for the Grizzlies.  They have two huge road games on deck against the Spurs and Warriors.  I don't expect them to give the Pelicans their full attention tonight as a result.

The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Tuesday games.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six Tuesday games.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Rockets UNDER 237.5

I love backing the UNDER in the second game of home-and-home situations.  The Rockets and Nuggets just played on Saturday in Denver, and now they play each other again Monday in Houston this time around.

And that meeting Saturday went way UNDER the number.  Houston won 109-105 for 214 combined points despite the fact that the total was set at 241.  Now the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for the situation, setting the total at 237.5 in the rematch.

Bets on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) over the last five seasons.

Denver is dealing with a bunch of injuries right now that are hampering its offense.  It is expected to be without the trio of Danilo Gallinari, Darrell Arthur and Wilson Chandler in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers come in well-rested and ready to go tonight.  They have had three days off since thumping the Charlotte Hornets 98-77 at home on Wednesday.  Look for a big effort from them tonight with all this time off coming in.

The Toronto Raptors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They haven't been playing well since losing their floor general in Kyle Lowry to injury.  They are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by 6, 15 and 21 points in the process.

The Pacers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 Sunday games.  Indiana is 25-10-2 ATS in its last 37 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 198

Recent meetings between the Spurs and Grizzlies indicate that the oddsmakers have really inflated this total tonight.  I don't think the Spurs and Grizzlies combined to score anywhere near 198 points Saturday.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  They have combined for 163, 211, 183, 162, 180 and 188 points in the last six meetings, respectively.  That's an average of just 181.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.

Memphis is 15-3 UNDER vs. teams who make 39% or more of their 3-point attempts over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 13-6-1 in Spurs last 20 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Grizzlies last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4

Off back-to-back losses to Cleveland and Utah, the Detroit Pistons will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight against Toronto.  The Pistons are currently tied for the 8th seed in the East and can't afford to lose at home.

Detroit has been a solid home team all season, going 22-13 SU & 21-14 ATS on the year.  The Pistons are 36-18 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.

The Toronto Raptors have been a mess since Kyle Lowry went down with an injury.  They are 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They just lost to Oklahoma City 102-123 at home last night, so they'll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well.

Toronto is 7-23 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks trail the Toronto Raptors by two games for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.  They have been coming on strong with a 3-1 record in their last four games with their only loss coming on the road at San Antonio by eight points.

The Hawks have had two days off since losing in San Antonio on Monday, so they'll be fresh and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here tonight after a 98-91 win in Chicago.  They won't be able to match the effort put forth by the Hawks tonight.

Atlanta has clearly had Memphis' number in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Hawks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings, winning by 17 points on the road, by 12 points at home and by 15 points on the road.  They have outscored the Grizzlies by a combined 44 points in those three meetings, or an average of nearly 15 points per game.

Memphis is 1-9 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.  The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs a team with a winning record.  The Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Thursday games.  These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Atlanta.  Roll with the Hawks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2

I know the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here today, but oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it.  There's now value with the Pacers laying only two points at home to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.

The Pacers are one of the better home teams in the NBA, going 23-10 at home this season.  The Hornets are just 11-23 on the road this year.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including a 110-94 Indiana victory in their last home meeting earlier this season.

The Hornets just can't get anything going.  They are 6-17 in their last 23 games overall.  They certainly don't deserve the respect they are getting from oddsmakers after losing back-to-back home games to the Pelicans and Bulls coming in.

Charlotte is 2-13 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Indiana is 12-3 ATS in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Hornets are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  Take the Pacers Wednesday.

15* 76ers/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +17

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued here Tuesday.  They are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games since losing Kevin Durant to an injury.

Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 17 points against a Philadelphia 76ers team that just keeps covering.  The 76ers are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games overall.  They have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning record.

And the 76ers are going to want revenge from a 108-119 home loss to the Warriors on February 27th in which they covered as 14-point underdogs.  The Warriors had Durant for that game, but they won't for the rematch.  And the Warriors are in a tough spot here as this is their first home game following a stretch in which they played seven of eight games on the road.

The 76ers are 19-6 ATS when revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.  Philadelphia is 25-6 ATS off a road game this season.  The 76ers are 11-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring at least 106 points per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Warriors are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the 76ers Tuesday.

20* Hawks/Spurs TNT Monday No-Brainer on Atlanta +6.5

The San Antonio Spurs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are coming off a huge win over the Golden State Warriors, but now they are in a letdown spot tonight.  Plus, the Warriors were without their five best players in game game, so it wasn't too big of a feat.

And the Spurs have a bunch of injury concerns right now.  LaMarcus Aldridge is out indefinitely, Tony Parker is expected to miss this game, and Kawhi Leonard is questionable with a concussion.  Whether or not Leonard plays, the Spurs should not be 6.5-point favorites here.

The Atlanta Hawks are coming on strong, winning three straight coming in.  They are currently the No. 5 seed in the East, just one game behind Toronto for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  Look for them to clamp down and try and get that home court, which is exactly what their goal is.

The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in its last eight Monday games.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5

The Indiana Pacers have been a tremendous home team this season.  They are 22-10 on their home court and will be happy to be back home here after playing six of their previous seven games on the road.

This is a tough spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a win over Toronto at home yesterday.  And now they could be without their best player in Goran Dragic, who suffered an eye injury against the Raptors and is doubtful to play tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Indiana and Miami.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings.  The home team has also gone 8-1 ATS in those nine contests.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in Sunday home games over the past three seasons, outscoring their opponents by 12.5 points per game on average.  The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Indiana.  Take the Pacers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

Both the Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight.  However, the difference is that Milwaukee gets to stay at home, while Minnesota has to travel after playing at home last night.

And this is a massive letdown spot for the Timberwolves.  They are coming off arguably their biggest win of the season, a sweet 103-102 home victory over the Golden State Warriors.  There's no question they will have a hard time getting up for Milwaukee after that win, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight.

The Bucks have been on a mission to make the playoffs since the All-Star Break.  They have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating, winning all five games by 7 points or more, and four by double-digits.

The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days' rest.  Milwaukee is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Minnesota.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bucks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 211

The Detroit Pistons have been a great defensive team at home this season.  They are giving up just 99.7 points per game at home, and the UNDER is 19-14 in all of their home games this year.  I believe the books have set the bar too high today with this 211-point total against the Knicks.

Recent head-to-head history in this series also suggests there's a ton of value with the UNDER.  They have combined for 207, 191 and 191 points in their last three meetings.  In fact, they have combined for 207 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 14 of their last 15 meetings.  That's a 14-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's 211-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Wizards/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +8

The Sacramento Kings are showing excellent value as 8-point home underdogs to the Washington Wizards tonight. The betting public wants nothing to do with the Kings after trading DeMarcus Cousins, but they have been competitive without him, and there lines have been inflated as a result.

The Wizards went into the All-Star Break on fire, but they came out of the break way overvalued because of it, and they continue to be here as 8-point road favorites.  The Wizards are just 3-5 ATS since the break.  They are in a tough spot here as they will be playing their 3rd straight road game in the midst of a 5-game trip.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Washington is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games off two consecutive road wins.  The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Pistons UNDER 217.5

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this battle between Cleveland and Detroit tonight.  I expect a low-scoring affair that doesn't even come close to exceeding this 217.5-point total.

The Cavs are missing offensive punch right now as Kevin Love, J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver are all expected to miss this game.  Cleveland has been held to 102 or fewer points in five of its last six games overall.  That trend should continue here against a Detroit team that only gives up 99.6 points per game at home this season.

A look at the recent head-to-head history shows that this total has been inflated as well.  The Cavs and Pistons have combined for 207 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight straight meetings.  They have combined for 196, 185, 198, 192, 197, 207, 206 and 184 points in those eight meetings, respectively.

This makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 217.5.  They have averaged just 195.6 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 22 points less than tonight's posted total.  That's a ton of value on the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +4

The Miami Heat are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back wins over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers in a home-and-home situation.  It's only human nature for them to not show up tonight against the Charlotte Hornets off those two monstrous wins.

And the Hornets aren't a team to be taken lightly with the way they are playing right now.  They are chasing down a playoff spot in the East and have gone 4-2 in their last six contests.  One of the losses was a 3-point road loss to the Clippers in OT.  They beat Indiana by 12 at home and Denver by 10 on the road in their last two contests.

The Heat are dealing with a plethora of injuries that could hold them back tonight.  Tyler Johnson, James Johnson and Luke Babbitt are all questionable for the Heat.  Charlotte has owned Miami this season with a 2-0 record and a 9-point home win as well as a 6-point road victory.

Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half over the last three seasons.  Miami is 17-33 ATS after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons.  The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -6

Off three straight road losses, the Oklahoma City Thunder return home highly motivated for a victory to end this skid.  They are 23-8 at home this season and have won seven of their last eight home contests with their only loss coming to the Warriors.

Now they face an overrated Portland Trail Blazers team that is coming off two straight home wins, but now hits the road where they are just 10-22 SU & 11-21 ATS on the season.  They have lost three of their last four road games all by 6 points or more.

Adding to the Thunder's motivation tonight is the fact that they just recently lost to the Blazers within the last week 109-114 on the road on March 2nd.  Now they will be out for revenge in the rematch at home.

The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Thunder are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Blazers, winning those four contests by an average of 16.3 points per game.  Expect another home blowout for OKC tonight.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

Both the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losses in Washington and New York yesterday, respectively.  But I like this spot a lot more for the Magic than I do for the Knicks.

The reason is that the Knicks will suffer an emotional letdown here.  They just played the Golden State Warriors at home yesterday, and they certainly won't be able to get up for the Magic like they were for the Warriors.  I look for them to come out flat as a pancake tonight.

I backed the Magic yesterday as 12.5-point dogs in a 114-115 road loss to the Wizards in a game they should have won.  I like the way they are playing of late as they are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat the Hawks by 19 at home and the Heat by 11 at home despite being underdogs in both games.

Strangely, the other loss besides the Wizards came at home to these same Knicks on March 1st.  However, I think that makes this a great spot to back the Magic because they will be out for revenge from that defeat.  There's no question in my mind Orlando will be the more motivated team in this game as a result.

The Knicks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  New York is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 Monday games.  Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday games.   Bet the Magic Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +10.5

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now.  They were on fire entering the All Star Break, but they have been lackluster since, yet they are still getting treated like one of the best teams in the league as double-digit favorites here over the Orlando Magic.

The  Wizards are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their five games since the break.  They have lost two home games during this stretch to Utah (by 10) and Toronto (by 8).  They also lost on the road to Philadelphia (by 8).  I don't think the way they're playing right now warrants them being double-digit favorites here.

The Magic have come back from the break with new life and determination.  They have won two of their last three outright as underdogs.  The beat Atlanta (by 19) as 3.5-point home dogs and Miami (by 11) as 4.5-point home dogs.

This has been a closely contested series as each of the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Magic won 124-116 as 2.5-point dogs in their lone trip to Washington earlier this season.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The San Antonio Spurs are in a brutal spot here.  They just recently concluded their eight-game rodeo road trip, and they haven't been sharp in their two games since.  They only beat Indiana 100-99 as 10-point favorites and needed overtime to beat New Orleans 101-98 as 6-point favorites.

That overtime game is important because the Spurs will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  Both Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge played 40 minutes last night against the Pelicans.  Don't be surprised if Greg Popovich either rests some starters or limits their minutes here.

Don't look now but the Timberwolves are playing some great basketball.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They won at Denver by 13, beat Dallas at home by 13, won at Sacramento by 14 and won at Utah by 27.  Now they have had two days off since that blowout win over the Jazz having last played on Wednesday.

Minnesota is 29-13 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 17-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans ESPN Friday No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

The New Orleans Pelicans were a little lost in their first few games back from the break.  They had to implement DeMarcus Cousins into the lineup, and while he and Anthony Davis have put up monster numbers, they have been asked to do too much.

I think having Cousins suspended for their last game helped the rest of the players know that they needed to step up their games.  And they did just that in a dominant 109-86 win over Detroit.  Now Cousins returns to the lineup tonight and I look for them to play well again here as 7-point home dogs to the Spurs.

San Antonio just finished up its 8-game Rodeo Road Trip.  The Spurs were flat in their first game back home, barely escaping with a 100-99 win over Indiana as 10-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to lay too big of a number here in their first game back on the road tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series, especially for the Pelicans.  The home team is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Pelicans are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Spurs.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* Warriors/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +8

The Chicago Bulls have a way of playing to their level of competition.  They struggle against poor teams, but do very well against good teams, as indicated by the fact that they are 3-0 against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers this year with three outright upsets.

Now they take on the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I can't believe the Warriors are laying 7.5 points on the road to the Bulls here considering they will be without their best player in Kevin Durant, who suffered a hyperextended knee on Tuesday in the second of a back-to-back against the Wizards.

So the Warriors will now be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Bulls will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  And the Bulls will clearly be motivated to bounce back from an ugly 125-107 loss to Denver last time out.

Chicago is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games off a loss by 10 points or more.  Golden State is 5-13 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Bulls Thursday.

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics come into tonight's action highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three of their last four coming in and will certainly be amped up to face the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

They have hung tough in their first two meetings with the Cavaliers this season, both of which were in Cleveland.  They lost by 6 as 10.5-point dogs and by 6 as 6-point dogs.  Now they get the Cavs at home for the first time, and the Celtics are 20-9 at home this season.  Plus, the Cavs are without Kevin Love and JR Smith this go-round.

Bets on home underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 50-19 (72.5%) ATS since 1996.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are trying to chase down a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They have won four of thier last six coming in with their only losses coming to two of the best teams in the NBA in Utah and Cleveland.

The Bucks host the Denver Nuggets tonight, who are in a very tough rest situation.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days coming out of the break.  They won't have a lot left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.

The Nuggets are just 11-19 on the road this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Denver is 1-9 ATS off a road win this season.  The Nuggets are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Wizards NBA TV No-Brainer on Washington +7

The Golden State Warriors are in a tough spot here tonight and should not be this heavily favored on the road against the Washington Wizards as a result.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 119-108 win in Philadelphia last night.

The Wizards were red hot going into the break, but they have put together two lackluster performances since the break in a 112-120 road loss to Philadelphia and a 92-102 home loss to Utah.  However, I think those two efforts have them undervalued now, and they will certainly be 'all in' tonight against the Warriors.

The Wizards are 24-8 at home this season, but they have enjoyed one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA over the past couple months.  Indeed, Washington is 19-2 SU in its last 21 home games.  One of the losses was an OT loss to the defending champion Cavaliers in which Lebron James banked in a 3 at the buzzer to force OT.

The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games playing on 0 days' rest.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Wizards are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Roll with the Wizards Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +14

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing excellent value Monday night as 14-point home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors.  Of course, the 76ers haven't been getting any credit from oddsmakers all season, so why would they start now?

The 76ers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are 4-3 SU during this stretch as well with all three losses coming by single-digits.  They beat a very good Washington team 120-112 at home as 9.5-point dogs in their first game back from the break.  Now they'll give the Warriors a run for their money tonight.

Philadelphia has been extremely competitive at home this season, going 14-16 SU & 21-8-1 ATS.  The fans are starting to finally come out to support this team, and it will be close to a packed house tonight with the Warriors coming to town.

The 76ers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Warriors, losing by 12 as 21.5-point road dogs, by 3 as 16.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 15.5-point home dogs. Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2.5

The Washington Wizards haven't dropped back-to-back games in nearly two months.  I don't think they are about to start now considering they are playing at home Sunday and will be hungry to bounce back from their loss at Philadelphia in their first game back from the break.

Washington is 18-4 in its last 22 games overall.  The Wizards are a ridiculous 19-1 in their last 20 home games.  Their only loss came to the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers after Lebron James banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime.

Utah is 2-10 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Washington is 8-1 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Wizards are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games.  Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Sunday games.  The Wizards are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  The Jazz are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

Simply put, the Charlotte Hornets are due.  They have lost five straight and 12 of their last 13 games overall.  They blew a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter at Detroit on Thursday and eventually lost in OT.  They have had several of these excruciating losses during this stretch.

But now the Hornets have a great chance to end this skid against a Sacramento Kings team that just lost their best player in DeMarcus Cousins.  The Denver Nuggets clearly didn't take the Kings seriously on Thursday and lost 100-116.  But the Hornets can't afford to overlook the Kings now if they want to get back in the playoff race.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - off two or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 63-22 (74.1%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Hornets Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers +1

The Indiana Pacers come out of the All-Star Break way undervalued due to heading into the break on a 6-game losing streak.  But that was a brutal stretch for them as they had to play 6 games in 9 days against some of the best teams in the NBA in Cleveland (twice), Washington (twice), San Antonio and Milwaukee.

The Pacers will be highly motivated for a win here at home to end this streak, and they'll be feeling refreshed and ready to make a run at the playoffs.  The Pacers have protected their home court well this season, going 20-10 SU in home games.

"We have to be better," said Pacers Coach Nate McMillan. "We lost six games. Of course it was against some tough teams, but it showed us we are not where we need to be. Our focus is on getting better and getting ourselves prepared for Memphis."

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing three or less games in 10 days are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.  Memphis is 3-16 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +8

The Philadelphia 76ers continue to get no respect from oddsmakers despite the fact that they've gone 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall as well coming into the All-Star Break.

The Washington Wizards are now overvalued due to the way they went into the break, winning four straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall.  They are now being asked to lay 8 points on the road here, which is simply too much, and the value is clearly with the home side.

The 76ers have played the Wizards extremely tough in their last two home meetings.  They won their lone home meeting this season 109-102 as 6.5-point dogs.  They only lost 94-99 as 9-point dogs in their final home meeting last season as well.

In fact, Philadelphia is a sensational 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Philadelphia is 10-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Philadelphia.  Take the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +3

The Portland Trail Blazers made a move before the deadline by trading Mason Plumlee to Denver that signified they are pretty much giving up on this season and looking forward to the future.  They also played like a team that had quit before the break, going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their final six games.

The Orlando Magic have also gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games, and they made a smart move by trading Serge Ibaka instead of letting him walk for nothing.  It wasn't a move showing they quit, it was just smart business decision, and I like this young team's mindset heading into the second half.

"Right now, we're 0-0," coach Frank Vogel said. "We're not going to focus on the standings and how many games we've got to make up or anything like that. We're going to focus on bringing maximum effort to practice and maximum focus into the game planning and preparations and all the little habits that our young players need to develop."

Portland is 9-20 SU & 10-19 ATS in road games this season.  The Magic are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Portland, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four home meetings.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

20* Celtics/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +1.5

The Boston Celtics are absolutely gassed right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days tonight.  They just beat Philly 116-108 last night.  Isaiah Thomas played 34 minutes, Marcus Smart played 34 and Jae Crowder played 35.

The Bulls had yesterday off after a big 105-94 home win over Toronto on Tuesday.  It marked the return of Jimmy Butler to the lineup, and the Bulls won outright as 4.5-point dogs.  They'd love to go into the All-Star Break with another victory here tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Chicago and Boston.  Indeed, the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Bulls have won each of their last three home meetings with the Celtics in this series.

Boston is 1-13 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +11

Te San Antonio Spurs are in the midst of their 8-game Rodeo Road Trip.  They haven't exactly started this trip well at all, going 1-4 ATS in their first five games.  Now they are being asked to lay double-digits on the road to the Orlando Magic.

I think Orlando is one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now.  The Magic proved that last time out by upsetting the Heat 116-107 as 8-point road dogs.  The betting public is putting too much stock into the Serge Ibaka trade here, but the Magic won't miss him as much as most anticipate.

The Magic have been a great bet against the Spurs in this head-to-head series.  Indeed, they have covered three straight while going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  That includes a 95-83 outright win as 12.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season.

Plays on underdogs (ORLANDO) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 56-19 (74.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday.

20* Kings/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1

The Los Angeles Lakers have slowly gotten healthy over the past few weeks and are now at full strength.  It's no surprise that this recent return to health has had the Lakers playing some of their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have consistently been undervalued, and they continue to be tonight as only 1-point home favorites over the Sacramento Kings.  We'll gladly take advantage and back them in a game that they basically just have to win to cover.

The Lakers come in well-rested and ready to go, getting three days off after last playing on Friday.  The Kings are overvalued right now due to winning four of their last five during a six-game home stand.  But now they hit the road, where they are just 11-17 on the season, while the Lakers are a respectable 12-13 at home.

Plays on any team (LA LAKERS) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 79-42 (65.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.  The Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a very difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in four days after losing 99-105 on the road to the Sacramento Kings last night.

Making matters worse for the Pelicans is that they are pretty short-handed right now as Terrence Jones and E'Twaun Moore are questionable, while Buddy Hield is also questionable due to a possible suspension.

The Suns come in on one days' rest after having Sunday off.  They will be out for revenge from a 106-111 road loss to the Pelicans exactly a week ago on February 6th.  But the Pelicans will be the road team this time around, and they are just 7-19 SU & 11-14-1 ATS on the highway this season.

The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Suns are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a ATS loss.  Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Suns are 50-23-3 ATS in their last 76 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

The Miami Heat just had their incredible 13-game winning streak snapped with a 109-117 loss at Philadelphia on Saturday.  It was the longest winning streak in NBA history for a team under .500.

Now, it's only human nature that the Heat will suffer an emotional letdown the game after having that streak come to and end.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they lost outright to the Orlando Magic tonight.  It's also their first game back home following a four-game road trip, which is always a tricky situation.

The Heat are clearly still being overvalued here due to that winning streak as they are being asked to lay 9 points to the Magic.  It's the perfect storm really because the Magic have lost four straight themselves coming in, so they are undervalued.

Orlando is 18-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last three seasons.  Plays on roadunderdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more five straight games are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Magic Monday.