20* Clippers/Spurs Game 6 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The road team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.  I don't expect the Clippers to go out without a fight tonight.  They have arguably been the better team in this series as they've lost a couple nail-biters in Game 2 and Game 5.

Los Angeles came up big with a 114-105 road win at San Antonio in Game 4.  It was essentially playing for its season in that game, and it is playing for its season tonight as well.  This core group of players has been together long enough to handle this kind of pressure-packed situation.

The Clippers have actually been playing their best basketball on the road here of late.  In fact, they are 9-1 SU in their last 10 road games overall.  They are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Doc Rivers will rally the troops tonight and have them coming back with an inspired effort.  Bet the Clippers in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Blazers/Grizzlies Game 5 No-Brainer on Portland +6

The Portland Trail Blazers got a huge break when Memphis point guard Mike Conley suffered a facial fracture in Game 3.  His defense on Damian Lillard in the first three games was as big a reason as any that the Grizzlies were up 3-0.

Without Conley in Game 4, the Blazers took advantage.  They won 99-92 behind a huge game from Lillard.  After scoring just 32 total points on 10-of-37 shooting in his first two games at Memphis, Lillard scored 22 points with nine assists in Game 3, and then a game-high 32 points in the Game 4 win.

I really think that the Blazers believe they can get back into this series now, and I look for them to not only to cover this 6-point spread at Memphis in Game 5, but to likely win this game outright.  C.J. McCollum has been huge too, scoring 44 points in the past two games.

Memphis is 19-42 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons.  This series is about to get interesting with the Blazers likely to take this game tonight.  Bet Portland in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

The Los Angeles Clippers showed a lot of guts by going into San Antonio and winning Game 4 114-105 to keep their season alive.  Now that they've regained home-court advantage, I expect them to hold onto it with a victory in Game 5 tonight.

The Clippers have been playing as well as anyone over the past couple months.  They are now 16-3 in their last 19 games overall and arguably should be up 3-1 in this series after blowing a late lead in Game 2 to lose in overtime.  They are simply the better team this year, and their resiliency shown in Game 4 will give them a lot of confidence going forward.

Los Angeles is 31-12 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.8 points per game.  San Antonio has been vulnerable on the road this year with a mediocre 23-20 record away from home.  The Clippers have now won four of their last six meetings with the Spurs this season, showing that they are better than the defending champs.

The Spurs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Los Angeles is 24-13 ATS off two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 188

The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Chicago.  This is Game 5 of the series, and as a series goes on, the games tend to get lower-scoring with both teams becoming more and more familiar with one another.

This has already been a pretty low-scoring series with all four games seeing 194 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  They combined for 194 points at the end of regulation in Game 1, but then just 173 in Game 2, 190 in Game 3, and 182 in Game 4.

In fact, each of the last 13 meetings in this series have seen 194 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Nine of the last 12 meetings have seen 186 or fewer combined points, making for a 9-3 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 188 points.

The UNDER is 15-4 in Bucks last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 18-6 in Bulls last 24 games vs.  a team with a winning percentage from .400 to .490.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers know that this is a must-win game to avoid falling behind the defending champion Spurs 3-1.  I look for them to give their best effort tonight in Game 4 and likely pull off the upset, though I'll take the points for some added insurance.

There is clearly some value here as the Clippers were only 4.5-point dogs in Game 3, and now 6.5-point dogs in Game 4.  They couldn't have played any worse in Game 3, shooting 34.1% while allowing 52.6% shooting. 

That's not going to happen again.  That performance has also helped create some line value here.  The betting public is big on "what have you done lately", which creates overreactions in lines.  I believe this is a classic overreaction.

Plays on road underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  They have only lost one of their last 19 games by more than 4 points, making for an 18-1 system backing them pertaining to today's 6.5-point spread.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +7

The Golden State Warriors are 0-3 ATS in this series and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They continue to be overvalued because they are the No. 1 team in the Western Conference and have the best record in the NBA.  Once again, they are overvalued as 7-point favorites in Game 4.

The New Orleans Pelicans are such a young team that they don't know any better.  I would expect an older team to fold in this situation, but the young Pelicans play with a lot of pride, and they don't want to get swept 4-0.  They have proven they can play with Golden State, and they want to show it with a victory in Game 4.

New Orleans played great down the stretch just to get into the postseason, going 8-3 SU in its last 11 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games like this one is.  It has hung with Golden State in all three games thus far as all three losses came by 10 points or less, including the OT home loss in Game 3.

New Orleans is 28-14 at home this season.  Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pelicans are 28-13 ATS as underdogs this season. 

The Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Clippers/Spurs ESPN Friday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are steaming mad over the way they lost Game 2 in overtime.  They had it all but won in the end, and now I look for them to show some real grit in Game 3 to come back and regain home-court advantage in this series.

The Spurs are now 8-0 when trailing 1-0 in a first-round series.  They showed their mental toughness in Game 2, but now they are in rough shape after playing an overtime game.  That's especially the case since they may be short-handed with Tony Parker questionable after leaving Game 2 with an injury.

The Clippers are still playing as well as anyone right now with a 15-2 record in their last 17 games overall.  Both of their losses came by exactly 4 points to San Antonio and Golden State.

In fact, the Clippers haven't lost a game by more than 4 points in any of their last 18 contests.  That makes for a perfect 18-0 system backing Los Angeles pertaining to tonight's 4.5-point spread.  Take the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Mavericks UNDER 214.5

The NBA playoffs are pretty predictable every year.  Series get lower and lower scoring as they go on on average because teams become more and more familiar with each other, which favors the defenses.

That happened from Game 1 to Game 2 as they scored 226 points in Game 1 and 210 points in Game 2.  I expect an even lower-scoring affair in Game 3 tonight, especially with the way these teams have played in recent meetings.

The Mavs and Rockets have combined for 211 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 meetings.  They have combined for 193, 187, 211, 209, 226 and 210 points.  Given those numbers alone, it's easy to see why there is some value on this UNDER in Game 3 tonight.

Dallas is 13-4 UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Mavericks last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +5

I've backed the New Orleans Pelicans with success in both Game 1 and Game 2.  I'll back them again in Game 3 for many of the same reasons, and also a few more.  They are simply showing too good of value to pass up as 5-point underdogs.

The Pelicans closed out the regular season playing their best basketball of the season.  They went 8-3 over their final 11 games just to get into the postseason, which included home wins over both the Spurs and Warriors.  Then, they played the Warriors tough on the road in the first two games, losing by 7 & 10 points.

The Warriors are simply overvalued in the early going in the playoffs because they had the best record in the NBA.  The #1 team is usually overvalued against the #8 team, and that has been the case in 2015 as the #8 seeds are now 4-0 ATS.  Golden State just cannot live up to the lofty expectations set forth from the oddsmakers and betting public.

New Orleans has been a dominant home team this season.  It has gone 28-13 on its home floor with a 24-16-1 ATS record to boot.  It is finally healthy, which is why it is living up to its potential here down the stretch.  With the series on the line in Game 3, I look for the Pelicans to respond in front of their raucous home crowd tonight.

The Pelicans are 27-13 ATS as underdogs this season, including 10-2 ATS as home underdogs.  New Orleans is 19-6 ATS off a road loss this season, and 8-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 five home games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Pacific Division foes.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets gave the Atlanta Hawks a tougher fight than expected in Game 1 in a 92-99 loss as 11-point underdogs.  I look for them to play even tougher tonight as they look to avoid falling to 0-2 in this series and to easily cover this 9.5-point spread.

The Nets have played their best basketball down the stretch in going 13-7 in their last 20 games overall.  They are finally healthy, and Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson have all stepped up their games.  This team is better than their overall record would indicate even though they snuck in as the No. 8 seed.

The Atlanta Hawks remain overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference.  Well, they aren't as strong of a team now as they were before because their two starting big men are banged up right now in Paul Millsap and Al Horford.  Both are expected to play, but both are hampered by injuries.

Brooklyn is 24-8 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.  Atlanta is 1-9 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Hawks are 13-29 ATS in their last 42 when playing on two days' rest.  The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Rockets NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Mavericks and Rockets played in a high-scoring affair in Game 1 as they combined for 226 combined points.  The total for that game was set at 213, and now the books have raised it up to 215.5 for Game 2, providing us with some value on the UNDER.

As a series goes on, teams get more familiar with one another, and that usually leads to better defense being played.  I look for that to be the case in Game 2 as the intensity is picked up a notch, and the game slows down as a result.

That Game 1 outburst was really an aberration when you look at the regular season meetings.  In fact, the UNDER went 4-0 in the four meetings between these teams during the regular year.  They combined for 211 or fewer points in all four meetings, or an average of 200.0 points per game.  That fact alone shows that there is value with this UNDER.

Dallas is 12-4 UNDER when playing with double revenge; two straight losses vs. opponent this season.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 6 or more consecutive overs are 30-8 (78.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors NBA Monday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +12.5

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued tonight as 12.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans.  They had the best record in the NBA this season, and as a result they came into the playoffs getting too much respect from the betting public and oddsmakers.

Yes, the Warriors could have easily covered the 12-point spread in Game 1 as they led by double-digits throughout, but they weren't able to in a 106-99 win.  Now, the Pelicans will be playing even more desperate basketball tonight in Game 2 to try and even the series.

New Orleans is playing its best basketball of the season here of late.  It has gone 8-4 SU & 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games to get into the playoffs.  It has even beaten the likes of San Antonio and Golden State during this stretch.

The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New Orleans is 26-13 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Pelicans are 16-4 ATS after two straight games giving up 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  New Orleans is 18-6 ATS off a road loss this year.  The Pelicans are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* Spurs/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Los Angeles Angels Clippers are showing great value as home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of this series.  I'll take them at a discount in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

The Clippers are playing as well as anyone entering the playoffs.  They have gone 7-0 in their last seven games and 14-1 in their last 15 games overall.  They are getting no love today, which will only fuel their fire against the defending champs.

I actually believe the Spurs come into the playoffs deflated because they had the No. 2 seed wrapped up. Instead, they lost their last game of the season to fall to the No. 6 seed and a road series against the Clips.

San Antonio is 3-13 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Playoffs Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Atlanta Hawks come into the playoffs way overvalued.  Yes, they're the No. 1 seed, but they are far from the best team in the postseason.  They're being treated like an elite team with this double-digit spread.

The Nets earned their way into the playoffs with a 101-88 win over Orlando in the season finale.  They obviously aren't as good as they expected to be with that payroll, but when it matters, they have the players who can get it done in the playoffs.

The  Hawks beat the Nets 4-0 during the regular season.  These games weren't close either.  That has the betting public rolling the Hawks, but it also has provided us with great line value to go against the public and take the double-digit points.

Atlanta is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Nets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* Mavericks/Rockets NBA Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 211.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Mavericks and Rockets in terms of the over/under.  Based off of their meetings during the regular season, it's clear that there is some value with this under, especially with the defensive intensity amplified in the playoffs.

The Mavs and Rockets have combined for 211 or fewer points in all four meetings this season.  They have combined for 209, 211, 193 and 187 points from most recent to furthest back.  That's an average of 200 combined points per game, which is roughly 11.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 211.5.

When you just look at season averages alone it's clear there's value with the UNDER, too.  The Mavs combine with their opponents for 207.5 points per game overall, and 206.1 points per game on the road.  The Rockets combine with their foes for 204.4 points overall, and only 201.6 at home.

Houston is 13-4 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last four vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Rockets last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in four meetings this season.  Take this combined 12-0 system backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the UNDER Saturday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on New Orleans +5.5

The New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs both have a lot to play for tonight.  A win gets New Orleans in the playoffs, while a win for San Antonio gets it the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  So, both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight.

However, there's no question that the Spurs are the one receiving all of the public action in this one because they have won 11 straight while going 9-2 ATS in the process.  That has created a ton of line value for us to pounce on the Pelicans here.

New Orleans has been great at home, going 27-13 SU & 23-16-1 ATS this season.  It has won four straight home games coming in with blowout victories over Phoenix (by 15), Minnesota (by 22) and Sacramento (by 14).  Most impressive was its 103-100 home win over Golden State as 4.5-point dogs during this stretch.

The Pelicans have played the Spurs very tough this season.  In fact, they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with San Antonio.  Their only loss came by a final of 93-95 (OT) on the road.  They won 97-90 at on on December 26th and 100-99 on the road on November 8th.  There's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well.  The Spurs are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.

New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.  San Antonio is 3-12 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS following a game with 15 or less assists this season.  New Orleans is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of its last 6 against the spread this season.  The Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Pelicans are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2

The Boston Celtics just clinched a playoff spot with their 117-78 win at Miami on Sunday.  They literally have nothing to play for now, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a big letdown tonight after realizing that they will be playing in the postseason.

The Toronto Raptors still have plenty to play for.  They are just a half-game back of Chicago for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They control their own destiny because if they win out, they will be the No. 3 seed.  That would have them playing Milwaukee instead of Washington in the first round.

Toronto has been fighting down the stretch, going 6-2 in its last eight games overall, including three straight road victories at Charlotte, Orlando and Miami coming in.  Its only two losses have come by a combined 6 points, which is how close it is to being 8-0 during this stretch.

I also like the fact that the Raptors are coming in on two days' rest, so they'll be fresh and ready to go.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  With nothing to play for, I don't expect the Celtics to show up tonight.  Roll with the Raptors Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14.5

The New York Knicks have been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  As a result, the betting public has wanted nothing to do with them here down the stretch, which has created a ton of line value to back them.  That's the case again tonight folks.

The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost to Brooklyn by 2 as 9.5-point dogs, beat Philadelphia by 10 as 1-point dogs, only lost to Milwaukee by 8 as 11-point dogs, and beat Orlando by 1 as 11-point dogs.  They are clearly playing hard here down the stretch.

Atlanta literally has nothing to play for and would be wise to rest its starters heading into the playoffs.  It lost 99-108 at Washington yesterday, and you can bet it's not going to overwork its starters in this second of a back-to-back situation.  Paul Millsap is out with a shoulder injury to boot.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Atlanta.  Take the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Nets UNDER 200

Both the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets have a lot to play for heading into their showdown tonight.  The Bulls want home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, while the Nets want to just make the playoffs as they are currently the No. 9 seed if the season were to end today, tied with No. 8 Indiana.

There's no question that both teams are going to be laying it all on the line defensively to get a win tonight.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in this contest, especially when you consider the recent history in this head-to-head series.

The Bulls and Nets have combined for 192 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 178, 185, 186, 176, 168, 173, 192 and 187 points.  That's an average of 180.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference in a win over Milwaukee on April 8th.  Since that victory, they have clearly shut it down.  They weren't interested in their back-to-back losses to Boston by finals of 90-99 and 78-117, and they won't be interested in this game, either.

The Detroit Pistons are playing out their season and would love to beat Cleveland here to kind of put a cherry on top of a successful second half.  The Pistons are 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall, which includes a blowout 116-77 win over Charlotte yesterday.

Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 60-30 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Pistons are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Charlotte Hornets have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  With that realization, the Hornets won't show up at all today.  That's why I'll lay the points with the Pistons at home in this one.

Without question, the Pistons are finishing out their season.  They have gone a ridiculous 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Stan Van Gundy has this team playing some of their best ball of the season.

The Hornets, meanwhile, have gone 0-3 in their last three games overall.  They lost by 5 at Miami, by 18 at home to Toronto, and by 24 at Atlanta.  If that's not evidence that they have quit I don't know that is.  They won't show up today either.

Detroit is 15-5 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  Charlotte is 33-59 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 43% or less since 1996.  The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.   The Pistons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.  Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah Jazz +7

The Portland Trail Blazers have absolutely nothing to play for right now.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, but will be playing their opening series on the road due to being two games back of the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Clippers.

Portland had a golden chance to move up in the standings on Thursday at Golden State, but struggled down the stretch in a 105-116 loss.  That loss was probably the last straw for this team as now they'll be more concerned with getting rested heading into the playoffs than anything.

That's evident by the fact that they are expected to rest their best player in LaMarcus Aldridge tonight.  Aaron Afflalo injured his shoulder against the Warriors and is out 1-2 weeks.  Portland was already without Wesley Matthews and Dorell Wright, so it is short-handed tonight to say the least.

What you have to love about the Utah Jazz is just how they have continued to lay it on the line every night despite being out of playoff contention.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They will be highly motivated to bounce back from an 88-89 loss to Memphis last night.  Their two losses in their last three games have come by a combined 3 points.

Utah is 1-2 against Portland this season, but its two losses have come by a combined 4 points, while its win came by 16.  The Jazz are 19-3 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  Utah is 7-0 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Jazz are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* Spurs/Rockets NBA Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5

This is a home-and-home situation for the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets.  San Antonio beat Houston 110-98 at home on Wednesday for 208 combined points.  So, they're now playing two days later, and their familiarity with one another will lead to more of a defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

Plus, both these teams are fighting for the Southwest Division Title.  Houston is 53-25 while San Antonio is 53-26, just a half-game back.  Both have a realistic shot of getting the No. 2 seed in the West, but both could also slip to No. 5 if they don't finish strong.  That means both teams should be laying it all on the line defensively tonight to get a win.

Previous meetings in Houston have been extremely low-scoring in comparison to this total.  They have combined for 179, 202, 187 and 191 points in their last four meetings in Houston as the UNDER has gone 4-0.  That's an average combined score of 189.8 points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 206.5.

San Antonio is 12-2 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Houston is 17-6 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last two seasons.  Houston is 13-3 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Rockets last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 191

The Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season due to their ability to get after it on the defensive end of the court.  In fact, they rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.9 points per 100 possessions.

Now, they'll be up against one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA in the New York Knicks.  The Knicks rank 29th in offensive efficiency, averaging 97.2 points per 100 possessions.  New York also plays at a very slow tempo, ranking 28th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game.

The last two meetings between these teams in 2015 have been very low-scoring.  They Bucks won 95-82 for 177 combined points and 95-79 for 174 combined points, which are both numbers that are well below tonight's posted total of 191, showing just how much value there is with this UNDER.

New York is 8-1 UNDER when revenging two straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Bucks last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Bucks last 25 games following a loss. The UNDER is 21-10 in Bucks last 31 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in New York.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, tied with No. 8 seed Brooklyn with identical 36-42 record.  They are only one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana (35-43), so they aren't going to be letting up any time soon.

The Celtics have gone 13-7 in their last 20 games overall, including 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.  They wont at Charlotte by 12, at home against Indiana by 13, at Toronto by 1, and at Detroit by 10.  They are simply playing their best basketball of the season right now at the perfect time.

Cleveland would normally be a bigger favorite in a different situation, but this is a very bad spot to back the Cavaliers.  They just clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their 104-99 win at Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now, they literally have nothing to play for, which is why Lebron James is expected to rest tonight.  I don't expect the Cavaliers to show up at all.

Boston is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that average 103-plus points per game this season.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Nets UNDER 200.5

Both the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets have a lot to play for right now.  Washington is one game back of Toronto for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.  Brooklyn is one game ahead of Indiana for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, just fighting to make the playoffs.

Because these two teams have a lot to play for right now, I look for both to be laying it all on the line defensively.  Washington has quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency at 99.8 points per 100 possessions allowed.

What I really love about this UNDER is the recent head-to-head meetings.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The UNDER is 3-0 in three meetings in 2015 alone where they've combined for 182, 189 and 191 points.  That's an average of 187.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.5.  Plus, the familiarity between these teams having played 4 times in 2015 alone will favor the defenses.

Washington is 170-107 UNDER in road games when the total is 190 to 199.5 points since 1996.  Brooklyn is 15-5 UNDER after having lost two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Wizards last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 35-12-2 in Wizards last 49 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Blazers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +9.5

The Golden State Warriors have absolutely nothing to play for.  They have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and have no need to show up the rest of the way.  That has been evident in their last couple games.

Golden State could suffer its first three-game losing streak in 17 months.  It is coming off back-to-back losses at San Antonio (92-107) and New Orleans (100-103), which were two motivated opponents.  It will now be up against another motivated squad tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are now 1.5 games behind Los Angeles and San Antonio in the race for home-court advantage in the first round.  They have won seven of their last nine to put themselves in this position.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back, but were able to rest some starters in a 116-91 blowout of the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.

"We've lost our last two, but we're not going to dwell on that fact," Stephen Curry said. "We pretty much have handled business on the road and we've been competitive in every single game besides probably two."  That sounds like a player not concerned with the losing streak, and one that is just looking forward to the playoffs.

"We know that the more games we win we give ourselves a better chance of having home court, so we wanted to come out and attack the game," said guard Damian Lillard.  That sounds like a guy determined to get home court.  The Blazers will also be motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Warriors after losing the first two.

Portland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Western Conference foes.  The Warriors are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on one days' rest.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Timberwolves/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +17

This is simply too big of a number that the oddsmakers are asking the Portland Trail Blazers to cover.  They just don't have much to play for at this point in the season.  They won their division so they will be the No. 4 seed, but they are likely to play their first series on the road because they will have a worse record than the No. 5 seed.

Portland has had a rash of injuries here of late, too.  LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both missed their 96-106 loss at Brooklyn on Monday.  While both are expected to return, they are still banged up.  Chris Kaman is questionable with a thump injuries, while Dorell Wright and Wesley Matthews are out for the season.

Yes, this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, but it won't affect them much after losing to Sacramento 111-116 last night.  That's because they had three days off prior to that game, so they will still be fresh and ready to go.  They could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.

Minnesota has played Portland very tough this season, going 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in three meetings.  The Timberwolves have not lost to the Blazers by more than 15 points in any of their last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 17-point spread.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Knicks UNDER 191.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks tonight.  These teams have played in low-scoring games in all three meetings this season, and I look for that to continue tonight.

These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  New York ranks 29th in offensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 24th.  Both teams prefer to play at slow paces too.  New York ranks 28th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 19th at 95.7 possessions per contest.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams as they've combined for 178, 187, 185 and 178 points, respectively.  That's an average of 182.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.5.

Indiana is 10-1 UNDER in road games off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +8

The Chicago Bulls just have a way of playing to the level of their competition.  They have done it time and time again this year, playing their best against the best teams, and playing their worst against the worst teams.  I look for that trend to continue tonight.

The Orlando Magic clearly have not quit.  They are coming off two of their best performances of the season, winning 97-84 at Minnesota as 4.5-point favorites, and then upsetting Milwaukee 97-90 as 8-point road underdogs.  Now, they have had three days off in between games to prepare for Chicago, which will be a huge advantage.

Orlando is 3-0 ATS against Chicago this season.  It only lost 97-98 at home as 6.5-point dogs, won 121-114 on the road as 11.5-point dogs, and lost 90-98 as 10-point road dogs.  The Magic are now 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The underdog is 25-9 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series.

Chicago is in a big hangover spot off its tough 94-99 loss at Cleveland last time out as well.  The Bulls are 31-53 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 14-24 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans were 3.5 games out of the Western Conference's final playoff spot with less than two weeks to go.  After a string of stellar play where they've won four of their last five, they are now just 0.5 games back and hungry to get into the postseason.

Yes, they are playing the team with the best record in the NBA in the Golden State Warriors tonight, but this won't be the same Warriors team as it has been up to this point.  That's because Golden State literally has nothing to play for right now.

The Warriors have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  They own the No. 1 seed in the West, and they also would have home court if they made the NBA Finals and had to play the No. 1 seed from the East in Atlanta.  I just don't trust them to show up over these final five games, especially tonight.

New Orleans is 16-5 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 23-11 ATS as an underdog this season.  New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for their playoff lives.  They are now just 0.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Their margin for error is zero right now, so look for them to come out swinging tonight.

Yes, the San Antonio Spurs are still fighting for playoff positioning, but this game isn't nearly as important to them as it is for the Thunder.  I look for that to show in the team's performances tonight as the Thunder will simply want this game more.

The Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games, including 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, forcing oddsmakers to set this number a lot higher than it should be.  I'm not so sure the Spurs should even be favored here.

Oklahoma City is 15-5 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 13-3 ATS in home games after playing a home game this year.  The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with San Antonio.  Take the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 190

Both the Miami Heat (34-42) and Indiana Pacers (33-43) are on the outside looking in right now when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Heat are in 9th place just 1.5 games back of Boston, while the Pacers are in a tied for 10th just 1.5 games behind Boston.

It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight to try and get a win.  What that means is that the defensive intensity will be at an all-time high this season for both teams, which I believe will lead to a defensive battle and low-scoring affair.

Two of three meetings between these teams this season have been extremely low-scoring.  They combined for 156 points in their first meeting back on November 12th, and 176 points in their most recent clash on January 23rd.  Yes, they did have a 201-point outing in between, but they are still only averaging 177.7 combined points per game this season.  That's roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.

Miami is 12-1 UNDER when playing against a losing team with a winning percentage of 40% of 49% this season.  Indiana is 11-3 UNDER in home games where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points this season.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Heat last 16 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 21-7 in Heat last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

What do the Atlanta Hawks have to play for at this point?  They have already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They aren't catching Golden State for the No. 1 overall seed between the two conferences.  The answer is that they have nothing to play for.  Yet, the Hawks are still favored by 8.5 points tonight against a Brooklyn Nets team that has everything to play for. 

It's no wonder the Hawks have struggled here of late.  They are just 3-5 in their last eight games overall, which includes a 19-point loss to Golden State, a 19-point loss to San Antonio, a 15-point loss to Charlotte and a 10-point loss to Detroit.  If that's not evidence that the Hawks aren't focused right now then I don't know what is.

The Nets have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Yet, that run only has them in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games ahead of 9th-place Boston.  The Nets not only are fighting for a playoff spot, but they also have visions of catching No. 6 seed Milwaukee, which they trail by 2.5 games.  That would allow them to avoid Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round.

I get that Atlanta has had 3 days off in between games, while Brooklyn will be playing 4 games in 5 days, but I believe the motivation in this game trumps the rest factor.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Brooklyn is 6-0 in its last six games.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 197

The Chicago Bulls are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  They will be locked in defensively tonight as they take on the Detroit Pistons, who are missing their best player in Greg Monroe.

The Bulls certainly don't play with much urgency on offense, and neither do the Pistons.  In fact, the Bulls rank 23rd in the NBA in pace at 95.3 possessions per game.  The Pistons are just ahead of them at 22nd, averaging 95.4 possessions per game.  These numbers show that this game is likely to be played in the half court at a slow pace.

Nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have seen less than 200 combined points, and seven of those have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  The Bulls and Pistons have averaged 187.0 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

Detroit is 11-2 to the UNDER in road games after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Chicago is 11-2 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Pistons last 13 road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets have saved their best basketball for last, which is fitting considering they have been fighting for their lives to make the playoffs.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and currently sit in the No. 7 spot in the East, but only a half-game ahead of both No. 8 Boston and No. 9 Miami.  They still have a lot of work to do.

Brook Lopez is averaging 26.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and shooting 61.7 percent during a 7-1 surge for Brooklyn.  Deron Williams had his best game with 26 points, seven assists and seven boards in a win over the Knicks last time out.

The Toronto Raptors are overvalued due to winning three straight coming in, but those three wins have come against the Lakers, Rockets and Timberwolves.  They remain without their best player in Kyle Lowry (back), and I don't believe they stand much of a change against the surging Nets without him.  The Raptors are 8-13 in their last 21 games overall.

Toronto is 9-18 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Raptors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Toronto is 9-20-1 ATS in its last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the Nets Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Dallas Mavericks are still looking to clinch a playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Until they do, they will be laying it all on the line with the hopes of getting some rest in the final few games of the season.

The Mavericks are coming off a huge 135-131 win at Oklahoma City last night.  While they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, they had two days off prior to that game against the Thunder, so it should not affect them too much.

Houston will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after its 115-111 home win over Sacramento yesterday.  However, it will be a tired team considering this will also be its 4th game in 5 days.  That's about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA, especially this late in the season.

Dallas is 43-23 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  The home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Dallas.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Clippers/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -3

The Portland Trail Blazers (48-25) are playing very well right now.  They currently sit in the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference and have a chance of moving up to the No. 2 seed.  That motivation has led to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS run in their last four games overall.

The Los Angeles Clippers (49-26) are in a similar position, and they are playing well right now too.  They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall, but only two of those wins came against teams with winning records, and both were at home against Washington and New Orleans.

This is a very tough spot for the Clippers, who controlled most of the game last night before giving away to the Warriors in a 106-110 home loss.  Now, they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I believe this is a hangover spot for them after losing to the best team in the NBA as well.

Portland is 30-7 SU at home this season.  The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Blazers are 27-8 SU in their last 35 home meetings with the Clippers.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Bucks UNDER 192.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this contest between the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks.  Both teams have a lot to play for right now, which I believe will lead to max effort defensively from these already solid defensive teams.

Milwaukee is tied for 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.8 points per 100 possessions allowed.  But the Bucks are not very good on the other end, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency at 100.4 points per 100 possessions.  Neither team really pushed the pace.  The Bulls rank 23rd in pace while the Bucks are 14th.

What really stood out to me about this game is the recent history between these teams.  The Bucks and Bulls have combined for 192 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 192.5.

They have combined for 158, 182, 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 173.9 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder (42-32) are just 2.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They will obviously be playing with a lot of urgency as a result.

The Dallas Mavericks (45-29) have not been playing with a sense of urgency at all.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 7 seed as they are three games behind San Antonio and three ahead of Oklahoma City.  That's not a bad spot to be in considering Memphis is the No. 2 seed right now.

The Thunder have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to San Antonio and Utah.  They have really taken care of business at home here of late, going 6-0 in their last six home games with five of those victories coming by 8 points or more.

The Mavs are 1-4 in their last five games.  They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games.  This team just has been way out of sync and cannot be trusted only catching two points here tonight.  Dallas is 0-10 ATS in road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83-plus shots per game in the second half of the season this year.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

The Golden State Warriors (60-13) already clinched the Pacific Division title, and they locked up the top seed in the West while setting a franchise record for victories in Saturday's 108-95 win at Milwaukee.  If this isn't a letdown spot for them, than I don't know what is.

Now they have to face a Los Angeles Clippers (49-25) team that has been on a roll since Blake Griffin returned from a 15-game absence.  They have gone 7-0 in thier last seven games overall with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points per game.  They are now within one game of third-place Memphis.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  The Clippers are 4-0 in their last four and 11-3 in their last 14 home meetings with Golden State as well.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 42-16 (72.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Clippers Tuesday.

20* Suns/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +8.5

The Phoenix Suns (38-36) suffered a big loss last night to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They now trail the Thunder by four games in the Western Conference playoff race for the No. 8 seed.  It's safe to say that they will be needing to almost win out to make the playoffs now.

That also means that the Suns won't be lacking any motivation the rest of the way.  That's especially the case tonight as the Suns will be looking for revenge from an 81-87 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers just three days ago on Friday, March 27th.

The Blazers come into this game overvalued due to having won three straight.  Well, all three wins came by 6 points or less, and they came against Utah, Phoenix and Denver.  This team had lost five straight prior to this brief winning streak, so they aren't playing all that well right now and should not be 8.5-point favorites here.

The Suns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last four trips to Portland.  Phoenix is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Phoenix is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 48-25 ATS in their last 73 road games.  Bet the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Memphis Grizzlies +8

The value on the Memphis Grizzlies could not be any better than it is right now, while there is no value in backing the San Antonio Spurs right now.  As a result, I believe this line has been inflated, and I have no other choice but to side with the road underdog Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Cleveland (89-111) and Golden State (84-107).  The betting public now wants nothing to do with the Grizzlies.  The Spurs have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The betting public wants everything to do with them right now because of it.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, four of the last 10 meetings have actually gone to overtime as this has been a very closely-contested rivalry.  I look for more of the same tonight when these two square off in San Antonio.

Memphis is 81-54 ATS against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 52-32 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots over the last three years.  The Spurs are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents.  The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Memphis Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 189

The Chicago Bulls host the New York Knicks tonight in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle.  The Knicks have been one of the top-two worst offensive team in the league this season, and the Bulls are still playing without Derrick Rose.

New York averages just 91.9 points per game on the season, including a woeful 84.8 points in its last five games overall.  It is extremely depleted right now, playing with guys that wouldn't make the roster on most teams.

New York ranks 29th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  It also plays at a deliberate pace, ranking 28th at 93.5 possessions per game.  Chicago likes to play a half-court game as well.  It ranks 23rd in pace at 95.3 possessions per contest.

The Knicks are a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  It is combining with its opponents for 176.5 points per game in this spot, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 189.  Chicago is 11-1 to the UNDER in home games versus terrible teams who are outscored by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on Dallas Mavericks +9.5

This number has been inflated for a couple of reasons.  The first is that the Spurs are playing well right now, having gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, so they are clearly overvalued due to this run of solid play.  That includes a 39-point win over Oklahoma City last time out, but the Thunder were playing the second of a back-to-back and shorthanded.

The second is that they'll be out for revenge from a 94-101 loss at Dallas on Tuesday.  The Spurs played the next night against the Thunder in their 39-point win, so they will have only had one day off in between games.  The Mavericks haven't played since that 7-point win over the Spurs, so they have had two days off and will be well-rested and ready to go.

Dallas has simply had San Antonio's number in recent meetings as this has proven to be an excellent matchup for the Mavericks.  They are 5-5 SU & a blistering 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs dating back to their playoff series this past postseason, which sent the full seven games.

The Mavericks are 22-9 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last three seasons .  Dallas is 319-251 ATS as an underdog since 1996.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to San Antonio.  Roll with the Mavericks Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4

The Golden State Warriors (58-13) beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday to capture their first Pacific Division title since 1975-76.  After that huge milestone, I look for the Warriors to take their foot off the gas tonight and to suffer a bit of a letdown.

After all, the Warriors lead second-place Memphis (50-22) by 8.5 games for the No. 1 seed in the West.  They also lead Atlanta by four games for home-court advantage throughout.  They really don't have a whole lot to play for at this point in the season.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have a lot to play for right now.  They only lead Houston by 1.5 games for the No. 2 seed.  They want that No. 2 spot so they can have home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs, so motivation is not an issue for them.

The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Memphis is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Grizzlies are 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Memphis is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Grizzlies Friday.

20* Bulls/Raptors ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5

The Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors are battling for positioning in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  At 43-29 on the season, the Bulls lead the Raptors by 1/2-game for the No. 3 seed in the East.  Both teams could move up to No. 2, while both could also slip to No. 5.  Due to their standing, the defensive intensity in this game will be very high.

The Bulls have recently returned their top defender in Jimmy Butler from a 12-game absence.  He was rusty in his first game back, shooting 6-for-20 from the floor, but his defense helped the Bulls beat the Hornets 98-86 at home last time out.  The Bulls had gone over the total in eight straight prior to that game, and the total was inflated as a result.  It is inflated once again tonight.

Toronto is without its best player in Kyle Lowry, who is listed as doubtful Wednesday with a back injury.  He returned against the Pistons last night after missing two games with back spasms, but left in the second quarter and did not return.

Lowry missed last week's matchup with the Bulls after averaging 27.0 points in the previous two meetings.  The Bulls won that game 108-92 at home for 200 combined points on March 20th.  Now, less than a week later, these teams meet again.  They are obviously very familiar with one another now as this will be their 4th meeting of the season.  Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

The Bulls and Raptors have combined for 200 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Bulls last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Raptors last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Wizards UNDER 192

Both the Indiana Pacers & Washington Wizards have a lot to play for tonight, thus I believe the defensive intensity will be very high in this game.  Indiana is one game out of the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference, while Washington is two games back of Toronto for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Both the Pacers and Wizards play at below-average paces this season.  Washington ranks 18th in the NBA in pace at 95.9 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 20th at 95.5 per contest.  Indiana ranks 25th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  Washington ranks 5th in defensive efficiency at 100.3 possessions per game, while Indiana ranks 10th at 101.1 per contest.

What really stands out to me about this game is the recent head-to-head history.  The Wizards & Pacers have combined for 190 or fewer points in seven straight meetings, and 13 of the last 14 meetings overall.  They have combined for 187, 168, 173, 181, 187, 148 and 168 points in the last seven meetings at the end of regulation.  That's an average of 173.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 192.

Indiana is 14-4 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive overs this season.  Washington is 15-5 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  The Wizards are 46-23 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games since 1996.  The UNDER is 30-13-2 in Wizards last 45 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 194

The Milwaukee Bucks (34-36) and Miami Heat (32-37) are currently in the 6th and 7th spots in the Eastern Conference, respectively. Both are fighting to make the playoffs right now, so the defensive intensity will be there tonight, which is a big reason I like the UNDER in this game.

The Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season because of their work at the defensive end.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but just 24th in offensive efficiency.  With those numbers, it's no surprise that they have gone 39-31 to the UNDER in all games this season.

The Heat rank just 18th in offensive efficiency this season.  They have been decent defensively, giving up an average of 97.0 points per game this year.  But what stands out to me is that Miami plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA.  Indeed, it ranks 29th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It is 40-29 to the UNDER in all games this year.

Miami is 10-1 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) this season.  The Heat are 22-6 to the UNDER off a non-conference game this season.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Heat last 30 road games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Bucks last 24 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 9-2-2 in the last 13 meetings, including 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Lakers +10.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly been playing their best basketball of the season over the past month in spite of their 18-50 record.  As a result, they have been undervalued time and time again because of their poor record.

Indeed, the Lakers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  You have to go all the way back to February 11th to find the last time that they lost a game by more than 9 points.  They have gone 15 games without losing by more than 9 points, which makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Lakers pertaining to tonight's 10.5-point spread.

This is a very tough spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are playing without Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka.  They have a huge game coming up tomorrow night against the San Antonio Spurs, and it's only human nature for them to be looking ahead to that game and overlooking the Lakers.

The Thunder have only won two of their last 13 games by more than 9 points, making for an 11-2 system backing the Lakers pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Los Angeles has played Oklahoma City very tough in the last two meetings, losing 103-104 and 101-108.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

Los Angeles is 14-4 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Oklahoma City is 5-14 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 games this year.  The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Bulls UNDER 191

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Charlotte Hornets and Chicago Bulls.  I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a very low-scoring game tonight.  Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so the defensive intensity will be there.

Charlotte ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Chicago ranks 13th.  Both teams play at deliberate paces as well.  Chicago ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Charlotte ranks 21st at 95.5 possessions per contest.

What really has this total inflated is the fact that Chicago has gone over the total in eight consecutive games coming in.  That has forced the books to set this number higher than it should be.  Charlotte ranks just 28th in offensive efficiency this season.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (CHARLOTTE) - after one or more consecutive overs against opponent after 5 or more consecutive overs are 100-58 (63.3%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Hornets last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hornets last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 12 meetings, and 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Thunder UNDER 214.5

Both the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for playoff spots.  As a result, their defensive intensity will be at a high level, and I believe the books have set the bar too high in listing this total at 214.5.

When looking at the recent history int his series, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.  Miami and Oklahoma City have combined for 180, 184, 207, 210 and 200 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average combined score of 196.2 points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than today's posted total of 214.5.

Miami is 27-12 UNDER versus good offensive teams that score 99 or more points per game this season.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Miami's last 11 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 20-9 in Heat's last 29 road games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons Saturday.  When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

The Bulls and Pistons have combined for 193 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have combined for 191, 193, 206, 199, 167, 178, 184, 189 and 167 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 186.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Now, you also have to factor in that both teams are without their top scorers.  Chicago is without leading scorer Jimmy Butler (20.2 ppg) and second-leading scorer Derrick Rose (18.4 ppg).  Detroit is expected to be without leading scorer Greg Monroe (16.0 ppg) and second-leading scorer Brandon Jennings (15.4 ppg).

Chicago is 8-1 to the UNDER in road games off a home win this season.  The Bulls are 11-1 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of its last game over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER In road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Pistons last 16 games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to all of their injuries.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them as 1.5-point home favorites today against the Toronto Raptors.  After all, injuries didn't stop them from thumping Indiana 103-86 last time out.

The Bulls will now be working on a ton of rest.  They will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, which will be a huge advantage for them considering their injuries right now.  The Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Raptors.

Toronto is dealing with a key injury of its own.  Kyle Lowry is questionable to play with an back injury, and he's the Raptors' best player.  They come in overvalued due to having won three of four, but their three wins came against Miami, Indiana and Minnesota.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Friday nights are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Bucks UNDER 192

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  Both teams come in tired as they are playing the second of a back-to-back.  I look for that to affect the offenses more than the defenses, and for this game to be played at a very slow pace as a result.

Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in pace as it is with San Antonio at 17th and Milwaukee at 14th.  What I really like about this play is that both teams rank in the top 10 in defense.  Milwaukee is 2nd in defensive efficiency, while San Antonio ranks 8th in defensive efficiency.

The Spurs are 20-12 to the UNDER in road games this season.  They are scoring just 97.5 points and allowing 96.1 points away from home this year.  The Bucks are 18-12 to the UNDER in home games, scoring 98.3 points and allowing 95.7 points per contest.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last five games following a loss.  These two trends combine for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER today folks.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons UNDER 185

I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons tonight.  Both teams rely heavily on their big men in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph for the Grizzlies and Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe for the Pistons.  This is going to be a great battle between these four.

Another thing that stands out to me is that both teams play at a very slow pace.  The Grizzlies rank 26th in the NBA in pace at 94.3 possessions per game.  The Pistons rank 20th at 95.6 possessions per contest.  The Grizzlies are also 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Memphis has really been clamping down defensively here of late.  It has allowed 95 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall, including 83 and 81 in back-to-back games.  Detroit has hit the skids offensively, scoring less than 100 points in seven of its last eight contests.

Detroit is 20-8 to the UNDER in non-conference games this season.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Grizzlies last 27 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Pistons last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -4.5

The Dallas Mavericks have had ample time to rest and correct their mistakes.  They have had two days off since their 129-99 home victory over the LA Clippers on Friday.  This will also be just their 2nd game in 6 days, and I really like backing rested teams this time of year.

Oklahoma City, on the other hand, is going to be a very tired team heading into this one.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days following a hard-fought 109-100 home victory over the Chicago Bulls Sunday.

Making matters worse for the Thunder is that they are extremely short-handed right now.  They remain without Kevin Durant due to a foot injury.  Now, they are also expected to be without Serge Ibaka, who is doubtful today with a knee injury.

The Thunder are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The Thunder are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Monday games.  The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets (26-38) know that they need a big finish if they want to make the playoffs.  They sit three games behind Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They cannot afford to lose to lowly Minnesota (14-51) tonight.

The Nets will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go.  The Timberwolves, meanwhile, will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing 97-123 at San Antonio yesterday.

Minnesota is 1-8 in its last nine games overall with four straight losses by 9 points or more.  Making matters worse for the Timberwolves if their long list of injuries.  Gary Neal, Ricky Rubio, Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic are all questionable to play today.  Anthony Bennett, Shabazz Muhammad and Robbie Hummel are all out.

Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season.  The Timberwolves are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  Roll with the Nets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards -2

After a long stretch of poor play for about a month, the Washington Wizards (38-28) are finally back on track.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.

Not only have the Wizards been winning, they've been dominating.  They beat Charlotte 95-69 on the road, Memphis 107-87 at home, and Sacramento 113-97 at home.  This will only be their 3rd game in 7 days, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight.

Portland is overvalued right now due to having won eight of its last nine.  This is the ultimate tough spot for the Blazers, who are coming off a 113-97 win at Toronto last night.  They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The home team has won three straight and 9 of the last 12 meetings in this series.  Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Washington.  The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors -1.5

Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Toronto Raptors as only 2-point home favorites.  They are 22-11 at home this season and have protected their home court very well, winning by an average of 5.0 points per game.

The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league, but they are just an average NBA road team this season.  They are 15-14 away from home where they are only outscoring foes by 0.9 points per game.

Toronto comes into this game way undervalued due to having lost nine of their last 11 games overall.  I backed them with success as a free pick on Friday with a 102-92 home victory over Miami as 5-point favorites.  I'll continue to roll them while they're undervalued today.

Portland is 4-16 ATS after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  Toronto is 8-8-0 ATS in home games after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons.  It is winning by 8.2 points per game in this spot.  Take the Raptors Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Jazz UNDER 186

The Utah Jazz have been one of the most improved teams in the NBA in the second half of the season.  The reason for their improvement is how they get after it defensively led by Rudy Gobert.

The Jazz are 10-2 to the UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They have allowed 91 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, including 88 or fewer in seven of those.  I look for that streak to continue against the lowly Detroit Pistons tonight.

Utah is 9-1 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Jazz are 9-1 UNDER after covering six or seven of their last eight games against the spread this season.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pistons last seven road games.  The UNDER is  7-0 in Jazz last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 27-10 in Jazz last 37 games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +5.5

The Phoenix Suns still have a realistic shot of making the Western Conference playoffs.  At 34-32 on the year, they are currently just 2.5 games behind the New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th and final spot in the West.

With a 50-14 record on the season, the Atlanta Hawks are overvalued here down the stretch.  They should not be laying 5.5 points on the road to the Suns in this one.  They are just 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have created expectations for themselves from the betting public and the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to, which gives us ample value to fade them.

Phoenix is 18-9 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents this season.  The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Atlanta is 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Phoenix.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

This is a very generous price we are getting Wednesday on the Grizzlies as only 4.5-point road favorites over the Celtics.  We are getting the No. 2 team in the West in Memphis (45-18) up against the No. 10 team in the East in Boston (26-36) at this short number.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  Memphis is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Boston with all five victories coming by 4 points or more.  In fact, the Grizzlies are 16-1 ATS in their last 17 trips to Boston, which is simply a ridiculous trend that needs backing tonight.

The Celtics are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 49-28 ATS in its last 77 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Boston is 46-77 ATS in its last 123 home games off an upset win as an underdog.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -3

The Brooklyn Nets (25-36) trail the Charlotte (28-34) and Indiana (28-34) by 2.5 games for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference.  After losing three straight coming into this one, they'll be highly motivated for a victory when they host the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

New Orleans (35-29) is also in a tight battle for the final playoff spot in the West, but it is in a very tough spot here tonight.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is about as difficult a situation as there is in the NBA, especially this late in the year.

Making matters worse for the Pelicans is that they'll be without three key players.  Jrue Holiday (15.2 ppg) and Ryan Anderson (14.6 ppg) have both been out for quite some time, but now second-leading scorer Tyreke Evans (16.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 5.3 rpg) suffered an ankle injury against Milwaukee last night and is doubtful to go.  The Pelicans are already tired as it is, and now they're even more short-handed.

Brooklyn is 44-24 ATS in its last 68 when revenging a loss as a road favorite.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  The Pelicans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

20* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +1.5

The Charlotte Hornets are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as difficult a situation as you will find in the NBA, especially this late in the season.  They will have nothing left to give tonight.

Washington comes into this game on a day of rest and highly motivated for a win.  It is undervalued in this game due to having lost eight of its last 10 games overall.  Meanwhile, Charlotte is overvalued due to having won five straight coming in with four of those against non-playoff teams.

The Wizards are also going to be motivated to put an end to their five-game losing streak against the Hornets in this series.  The last four have all went down to the wire and have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Wizards are catching the tired Hornets at the right time to put an end to their skid in this series.

Charlotte is 10-23 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  Washington is 74-51 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.  The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons PK

The Detroit Pistons (23-38) are highly motivated for a victory Sunday to put an end to a five-game losing streak.  They trail the 8th place team in the East by 4.5 games and cannot afford to fall further behind.  One of the teams they are chasing is Charlotte (27-33), which will only add to the motivation today.

Detroit's recent 5-game skid is more due to playing a tough schedule than anything.  It has lost to Cleveland and New York at home, as well as Washington, New Orleans and Houston on the road.  All five losses came by 10 points or less, so the Pistons were competitive in every game.

The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.  The Pistons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Pistons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +10

The Atlanta Hawks are in a huge letdown spot.  They just beat the Cleveland Cavaliers last night, which are their biggest contenders tow in the East in 2014-15.  They showed that they could beat them, and after that satisfying victory there's no question they will let down Saturday.

Atlanta doesn't care if it beats Philly or not tonight.  That lack of motivation will have it playing down to its level of competition.  That's why the 76ers are a great play tonight.  They are paying better here of late, but I'm not backing them because their good.  I'm backing them because Atlanta doesn't care about winning this game, while Philly wants to show that it can compete with the best the East has to offer.

Philadelphia is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season. Atlanta is 63-94 ATS (-40.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996.  The 76rers are 87-61 ATS (+19.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996.  The Hawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the 76ers Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Rockets UNDER 208

The books have set the bar too high tonight in the Pistons/Rockets game tonight! We want to back the UNDER in this contest as both teams will likely end up with 100 or less points in this one.

Detroit is 8-1 to the UNDER in its last nine road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.  Detroit is 9-1 to the UNDER in road games after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Chicago Bulls.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook is playing banged up right now and may not suit up tonight.

Chicago has injury issues of its own.  It is without its top two scorers in Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler.  Points have been hard to come by for the Bulls lately, and they will continue to be tonight.

Five of the last six meetings in this series have seen 189 or fewer combined points.  The Bulls and Thunder have combined for 182, 202, 174, 188, 170 and 189 points in those six meetings, or an average of 184.2 combined points per game.  That's roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 199.

OKC is 9-1 to the UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Thunder are 26-11 to the UNDER after allowing 100-plus points in four straight games since 1996.  Chicago is 31-14 to the UNDER off a home win over the past two years.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -5.5

The Brooklyn Nets (25-33) and Charlotte Bobcats (25-33) are tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  Obviously, both teams are going to want this game pretty badly, but I believe the Nets are in a much better position than the Hornets to get it tonight.

Charlotte is a very tired team right now as it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and the 3rd game in 4 days after narrowly escaping the lowly Los Angeles Lakers at home 104-103 last night.  It comes in having lost six of its last nine games overall with two of its wins coming against the Magic and Lakers.  It remains without starting PG Kemba Walker.

Brooklyn comes into this game almost fully healthy and on a days' rest after last playing on Monday in an impressive 110-108 win over Golden State.  The Nets are also playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have won four of their last six and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven.

They covered in an 86-95 loss at Memphis as 13-point dogs where they were playing their 4th game in 5 days.  They beat the Lakers 114-105 as 3-point road favorites, the Nuggets 110-82 as 2-point road favorites, the Mavs 104-94 as 8-point road dogs, and the Warriors 110-108 as 5.5-point home dogs.  They did lose to New Orleans 96-102 as 2.5-point road favorites, but narrowly lost at Houston 98-102 as 8-point road dogs.  This is an impressive stretch to say the least against many of the top teams in the West.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Nets are 10-2 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Hornets.  Each of their last eight wins in this series have come by 5 points or more, including seven by 9 points or more.  That includes a 114-87 road win on December 13th in their first and only meeting of the 2014-15 season.

Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this season. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in March home games over the last two seasons.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Nets are 5-0 ATS when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Hawks UNDER 199.5

The Houston Rockets are going to be lost offensively tonight.  They were already without second-leading scorer Dwight Howard (16.1 ppg), and now they'll be without MVP candidate James Harden (27.1 ppg, 6.9 apg), who has been suspended for one game for kicking Lebron James last time out.

This total has been inflated because the Rockets have played four straight games that saw 200 or more combined points.  Well, that game against Cleveland on Sunday was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation before going into OT.  There's no question the Rockets will suffer offensively without Harden tonight.

Atlanta has really been playing in some low-scoring games here of late.  It has gone 6-0 to the UNDER in its last six games overall with combined scores of 177, 185, 183, 191, 183 and 184 points.  That's an average of 183.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total.

One of the biggest reasons for Atlanta's improvement this season has been its defense.  It ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.8 points per 100 possessions.  Well, Houston actually ranks ahead of the Hawks at 3rd in defensive efficiency, yielding 99.7 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta is giving up just 91.0 points per game in its last six.

The Hawks and Rockets did combined for 201 points in their first meeting on December 20th, but Harden and Howard both played in that game.  They have combined for 163 and 197 points in their two previous meetings.  So, in their last three meetings, they're averaging a combined 187.0 points per game.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (ATLANTA) - off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less are 70-28 (71.4%) since 1996.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Rockets last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hawks last five games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Hawks last six games overall.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Knicks UNDER 200

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks.  This total has been inflated due to both teams frequently going over the total in recent games.  The value is clearly with the under in this one as a result.

The Kings have gone over the total in five of their last six.  Well, the Kings are now without two of their top three scorers in DeMarcus Cousins (23.7 ppg) and Darren Collison (16.1 ppg).  They won't be nearly as effective offensively without these guys.

New York has gone 3-0 to the over in its last three games overall.  Well, it is also without two starters in leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (24.2 ppg) and top assist man Jose Calderon (9.1 ppg, 4.7 apg).  The Knicks' roster is an embarrassment without these two.

The Kings and Knicks have played in some very low-scoring games in New York in recent meetings.  Not counting overtime, the Kings and Knicks have combined for 186, 201, 185 and 176 points in their last four meetings in New York.  That's an average of 187.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

New York ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency at 98.8 points per 100 possessions.  Sacramento is 20th at 101.3 points per 100 possessions.  New York also ranks 28th in the NBA in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It will control the tempo playing at home, so look for this one to be played at a snail's pace.

The Knicks are 20-8 to the UNDER when playing with two days' rest over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 21-8 to the UNDER off three or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last four vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 16-7 in Knicks last 23 home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +5.5

The Golden State Warriors are coming off one of the biggest comebacks in the NBA this season.  Trailing by 26 points midway through the second quarter, the Warriors came all the way back to beat the Boston Celtics 106-101 on the road Sunday.

Not only will this now be the second of a back-to-back, but the Warriors will also be playing their 4th game in 5 days.  That is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They used a ton of energy coming back on Sunday and won't have much left to give tonight.

The Brooklyn Nets come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They are right in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff race at 24-33 and are obviously making a push to try and get into the postseason.

The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost at Memphis by 9 as 13-point dogs, beat the Lakers by 9 as 3-point road favorites, beat the Nuggets by 28 as 2-point road favorites, lost to New Orleans by 6 as 2.5-point road favorites, lost to Houston by 4 as 8-point road dogs, and beat Dallas by 10 as 8-point road dogs during this stretch.

The Warriors have been overvalued for quite some time now and continue to be tonight.  They are in the midst of a stretch where they have played 10 of their last 11 games on the road.  They are just 1-7-1 ATS in their nine road games during this span.

Brooklyn is 25-14 ATS revenging a road loss against an oponent over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 32-18 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last two years as well.  The Warriors are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference. Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Nets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  The Warriors are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Brooklyn.  Take the Nets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +11.5

The Philadelphia 76ers were a money-making machine in the second half last year.  It has continued to be a money-making machine in the second half of 2014-15.  I'll ride this cash cow to another winner Sunday against the Indiana Pacers.

The 76ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have beaten the likes of Detroit, Minnesota, Denver, Charlotte and Washington outright as underdogs during this stretch.  They have only been beaten by more than 11 points twice in their last 13 games overall.

Indiana is in a massive letdown spot tonight.  The Pacers are coming off one of their biggest winw of the season, a 93-86 home victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Well, Lebron James and Kyrie Irving both sat out that game to rest, so it wasn't as big of a win as originally thought.

The Pacers are 2-16 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  The Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 when playing NBA Atlantic division foes.  Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5

The Atlanta Hawks (46-12) are proud owners of the best record best record in the Eastern Conference.  While they have slowed down a bit, they do come into this game on a three-game winning streak with an 11-point win at Milwaukee, a 17-point home win over Dallas and a 7-point home win over Orlando.

I haven't taken the Hawks in a long time because I believe they were overvalued after a fast start, but tonight I believe they are showing excellent value as only 5-point road favorites over the Miami Heat (25-32).  Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back, but this is a much tougher spot for Miami.

The Heat are already short-handed because their best player in Chris Bosh is out for the season.  Now, the Heat will not only be playing the second of a back-to-back, but also their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a situation as it gets in the NBA.  They won't have anything left in the tank off their deflating 102-104 loss at New Orleans last night, which was playing without three of its best players in Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson.

While this is a second of a back-to-back situation for Atlanta, it is actually just the 3rd game the Hawks will have played in the past six days.  They had two days off in between the Milwaukee and Dallas game.  So, they will be the much more rested team coming into this one.  Plus, the Hawks are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, which is one of the biggest reasons for their success this season.

Atlanta has owned Miami dating back to last year when the Heat had Lebron James.  The Hawks are 4-0 SU in the last four meetings & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  They won by 7 and 13 points at home last year.  They won by 11 points at home and by 10 points on the road in their two meetings this season.  Both of those came when the Heat had a healthy Chris Bosh, too.

The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days rest.  Atlanta is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Hawks are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.   Miami is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 home games.  The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Combine these two trends with the Hawks being 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and we have a 16-0 system backing Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

15* Bucks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 32-25.  The biggest reason for their improvement is their ability to lock down teams defensively.  In fact, the Bucks rank 2nd in the entire NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 98.7 points per 100 possessions.

The Bucks will be worse offensively but better defensively going forward due to the trade they made before the deadline.  They traded leading scorer Brandon Knight to Phoenix and got back Michael Carter-Williams from the 76ers.  Knight is a pure scorer who will be missed, but Carter-Williams is a better defense and known for his passing.

Knight scored 24 points in the first meeting with the Lakers this season, a 113-105 (OT) home victory on February 4th.  That game was tied 94-94 at the end of regulation for 188 combined points.  That total was set at 192, while this total has been set at 196, which is an obvious sign that there is some value in backing the UNDER in the rematch.

The Lakers are really banged up right now, obviously without leading scorer Kobe Bryant.  But their second-leading scorer is Nick Young (13.4 ppg), who is expected to miss tonight's game with an ankle injury.  Young is one of those guys that can bail out a team deep in the shotclock.  Without Young, this Lakers' offense will really struggle tonight against an elite defensive team in Milwaukee.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Bucks last eight games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have seen 192 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 19-9 in Bucks last 28 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles dating back to 2008.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Bulls UNDER 195

The Chicago Bulls are now without Derrick Rose once again due to a knee injury.  They have been UNDER machines here of late and will certainly continue to be now that they don't have their floor general.  They played in a ton of low-scoring games the last two years without Rose, and that will be the case again until he comes back.

The UNDER is 8-2 in Chicago's last 10 games overall.  It has held nine of its last 10 opponents to 101 or fewer points, including seven of those to under 100.  However, the offense has been held to an average of 86.5 points per game in its last two, and 91 or fewer in three of its past four.

Minnesota played in two shootouts against elite offensive teams in Houston and Phoenix in its first two games back from the All-Star Break.  However, it finally played a good defensive team in Washington last time out, and the result was a 97-77 victory for the Timberwolves for 174 combined points.  I look for this game to follow suit against another elite defensive team in Chicago.

Kevin Garnett was recently traded to Minnesota and made his Timberwolves' debut in that 97-77 win over Washington.  It's no coincidence that the Wolves played arguably their best defensive team of the season.  Garnett demands that his teammates play hard and smart on defense, and that will rub off on the rest of these players going forward.

Chicago is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games versus terrible teams that get outscored by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Chicago.  These teams have combined for 189, 167, 195, 206, 194, 181, and 172 points in their last seven meetings in Chicago.  That's an average of 186.3 combined points per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 194.5

The New York Knicks are one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  They are without Carmelo Anthony for the rest of the season, and they were already a terrible offensive team with him, but they have been atrocious without him.

The Knicks rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 98.4 points per 100 possessions.  Making matters worse is that they play at an extremely slow pace, ranking 28th in the NBA in pace at 93.1 possessions per contest.  They have scored 97 or fewer points in 10 consecutive games during a 1-9 stretch.

The Pistons have been playing in some low-scoring games here of late.  They are averaging 98.4 points in their last five games, but their defense has been solid during this stretch, giving up just 92.8 points on 42.8% shooting in their last five.

What really stood out to me about this play is just how low-scoring this series has been.  In fact, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Pistons and Knicks have combined for 193 or fewer points in all eight contests.  They have combined for 178, 193, 181, 174, 178, 164, 184 and 189 points in those eight games.  That's an average of 180.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five vs. NBA Central opponents.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Knicks last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Pistons last five games overall.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Pistons last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings, and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Warriors/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing the best basketball in the NBA right now.  They have won 17 of their last 19 games overall, and it's no coincidence that this run has coincided with a healthy return of Lebron James.  Rarely will you get the chances to back the Cavs as this short of a favorite, and we'll take advantage Thursday.

Cleveland is not only winning, it is dominating.  In fact, all 17 of its wins during this stretch have come by 5 points or more, including 11 by double-digits.  This team should be a much heavier favorite at home tonight against the Warriors, who have come back down to reality following an epic start.

The Warriors have been overvalued for quite some time now.  They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost at Atlanta by 8 as 2-point favorites, won at New York by 14 as 15.5-point favorites, won at Philadelphia by 5 as 15.5-point favorites, won at Minnesota by 3 as 9-point favorites, beat San Antonio by 11 as 7.5-point favorites, lost at Indiana by 6 as 4-point favorites, and won at Washington by 7 as 7-point favorites during their 1-5-1 ATS stretch.

The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference foes.  Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Cavs are 9-1 ATS in thier last 10 home games.  The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Golden State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  These five trends combine for a 33-2 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 192

The Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz will take part in a defensive battle tonight similar to their first and only meeting of the season.  The Jazz beat the Lakers 94-85 at home on January 16th for 179 combined points.

Utah has been an elite defensive team for quite some time now.  Even more so since they traded Enes Kanter to the Thunder and inserted Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  The Jazz have limited opponents to a league-low 93.4 points per game on 43.2 percent shooting while going 15-15 in their last 30 games overall.  

Utah is giving up 86.0 points per game in its last five.  It held Dallas to 87 points, Portland to 76 points, and San Antonio to 81 points in its last three games overall.  Those are three elite offensive teams, so it's not like the Jazz are limiting weak competition, either. Gobert is averaging 3.9 blocks shots in 10 starts and has held opponents to 37.7 percent shooting at the rim, the lowest mark in the league.

Utah is a perfect 9-0 to the UNDER versus terrible defensive teams that allow 103-plus points per game this season.  We're seeing an average of 187.5 points per game in this spot.  The Jazz are 15-1 to the UNDER after having won two of their last three games this season.  The UNDER is 9-1-2 in Lakers last 12 vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Bulls UNDER 189

The Chicago Bulls have really been clamping down on the defensive end here of late.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall with the UNDER going 7-2 in those nine contests.  They have given up 90.1 points in their last seven contests.

The defense will continue to be one of the best in the league going forward, just as it is every year, but the offense received a serious blow when it was announced Derrick Rose suffered a torn meniscus and will miss significant time once again.  Now, you'll be seeing a lot more of kirk Hinrich at the point, which is bad news for the offense.

Both Charlotte and Chicago like to play at slow tempos.  Chicago will play at an even slower pace now without Rose.  The Hornets rank 23rd in the league in pace at 95.3 possessions per game, while the Bulls rank 19th at 95.7 possessions per game.  Charlotte ranks 29th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 97.5 points per 100 possessions as well.

The Bulls and Hornets have combined for 185 or fewer points in 10 of their last 12 meetings overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings as well.  The Bulls are 15-4 to the UNDER in home games where the total is between 185 and 189.5 over the last two years. 

Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games off a combined score of 175 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Hornets' last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hornets last five road games.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on 76ers/Bucks UNDER 188.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 31-25 on the season.  Their improvement is due to their defense more than anything.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 98.9 points per 100 possessions.

Their offense has been decent, but they took a big hit when they traded leading scorer Brandon Knight to the Phoenix Suns.  They got back Michael Carter-Williams in return, and he is a solid player, but he's more known for his defense and passing than his scoring.  Carter-Williams will only make the Bucks a better defensive team, and he's expected to make his Milwaukee debut tonight.

The Philadelphia 76ers (12-44) are obviously atrocious.  They have actually played respectable defense this season, giving up 101.0 points per game.  But their offense only averages 90.4 points on 41.2% shooting, and 86.5 points on 39.8% shooting on the road.  The 76ers rank last in the NBA in offensive efficiency by far, averaging 92.1 points per 100 possessions.

These two teams have already met twice this season, and both were extremely low-scoring affairs.  Milwaukee won 97-77 on the road on January 7th for 174 combined points and 93-81 at home on October 31st for 174 combined points.  I look for this third meeting to follow suit.  Also, the UNDER is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee is 8-1 to the UNDER when playing a terrible team that wins 25% or less of its games this season.  Philadelphia is 11-0 to the UNDER after allowing 60 points or more in the first half of last game this season.  These two trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +7

The Detroit Pistons are once again lacking the respect they deserve as 7-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall and playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into this one.

The Pistons have beaten the likes of Houston (114-101), Miami (108-91), Denver (98-88), Charlotte (106-78), Chicago (100-91) and Washington (106-89) during this stretch.  So, they are not only winning, they are dominating as all six of their victories have come by 9 points or more.  Five of the six came against playoff contenders, too.

Cleveland comes into this game overvalued due to having won 16 of its last 18 games overall.  The Cavaliers are scoring 106.6 points per game since Christmas, but the Pistons are scoring 106.5 points per game since Christmas, just a tick behind.  Detroit is only going to be better going forward as Reggie Jackson gets acclimated to the offense after being traded from Oklahoma City.

Detroit has played Cleveland very tough this season.  It beat the Cavaliers 103-80 on the road on January 28th in a game in which Lebron James did play in.  It only lost 95-103 as 8.5-point home dogs on January 27th, which was about the time it found out it would be without Brandon Jennings for the rest of the year due to injury.  Jackson will fill that all-important point guard spot very well going forward.

Plays on underdogs (DETROIT) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 78-37 (67.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cavs are in a lookahead spot here as they have a huge game against the Warriors on deck at home Thursday night.

Cleveland is 2-11 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 18 or less fouls this season.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  It is winning by an average of 14.7 points per game in this spot.  The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Cavaliers are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Jazz UNDER 188.5

The Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  These teams just met on January 18th in their most recent meeting.  The Spurs won that game 89-69 at home for 158 combined points.  I look for a similar combined point total in this one that fails to even come close to this 188-point mark.

Utah has become a very good defensive team.  It got even better when it traded Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City, which meant that Rudy Gobert would get the start from year on out and more minutes.  Gobert is one of the best-kept secrets in the NBA.  He is averaging an NBA-leading 2.8 blocks since December 12, but he doesn't have much of an offensive game at all like Kanter does.

In their first two games since the trade and the All-Star Break, the Jazz have simply played suffocating defense.  They lost at Dallas 82-87 for 169 combined points, and beat Portland 92-76 at home for 168 combined points.  Gobert had five of the team's seven blocks in the win over the Blazers.

San Antonio will be highly motivated to play hard-nosed defense in this one after giving up 119 points to the Clippers and 110 points to the Warriors in back-to-back losses.  They had allowed an average of 88.0 points per game in their previous four contests against the Heat, Raptors and Pistons. 

After playing two of the better offenses in the NBA the last two games, the Spurs now go up against one of the worst.  The Jazz only score 95.7 points per game and are much worse off now without Kanter.  The Jazz also play at a very slow tempo, ranking 29th in the NBA in pace at 92.7 possessions per game.  The Spurs rank 21st in pace at 95.5 possessions.  San Antonio also scored just 97.6 points per game on the road this season compared to 104.3 at home.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more are 25-5 (83.3%) since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that good teams tend to bounce back defensively after a poor effort on defense in their previous game.

The Spurs are 9-1 to the UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Utah is 14-1 to the UNDER after having won two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Spurs last eight after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Jazz last 17 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 193.5

The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA.  I look for them to take part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight in Chicago.

The biggest reason for the Bucks' turnaround this season has been their defense.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Bulls rank 13th in allowing 102.1 points per 100 possessions.

The Bucks traded leading scorer Brandon Knight to Phoenix and got back Michael Carter-Williams as the starting point guard in return.  Well, Carter-Williams is hurt and doubtful to play tonight.  The Bucks have played in two low-scoring games since that trade.  The bet Denver 89-81 at home, and lost to Atlanta 86-97 at home.

This has been a very low-scoring series to say the least.  In fact, each of the last seven meetings between the Bucks and Bulls have seen 192 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 182, 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 176.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 193.5.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Bucks last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER  is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 18-8 in Bucks last 26 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Bulls last eight games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 196

The books have set the bar too high on this total between the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks today.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a low-scoring, defensive battle Sunday afternoon.

Atlanta (43-12) and Milwaukee (31-23) are two of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  That improvement is more do to their efforts defensively than anything.  The Bucks rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks rank 7th, allowing 100.4 points per 100 possessions.

Milwaukee just traded away leading scorer Brandon Knight to the Phoenix Suns prior to the deadline.  It got back Michael Carter-Williams to play the point in place of Knight.  Unfortunately for the Bucks, Carter-Williams has a foot injury and is expected to sit out today.  I look for them to be lost offensively without a starting point guard.

The Hawks and Bucks have squared off twice this season, and both games easily went UNDER the total.  They combined for 184 points in Atlanta on December 26th and 175 points in Milwaukee a day later on December 27th.  That's an average of 179.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than today's posted total of 196.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, on Sunday games are 63-23 (73.3%) over the last five seasons.  Milwaukee is 21-7 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Bucks last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Bucks last 25 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Sacramento Kings +10

The Sacramento Kings have new life coming out of the All-Star Break.  Legendary head coach George Karl takes over for the remainder of the season, and it was an excellent debut for the former Seattle Supersonics and Denver Nuggets coach.

The Kings erased a 16-point deficit and overcame 24 turnovers to beat the Boston Celtics 109-101 at home last night.  Under past coaches, this team would have folded with an effort like that, but they fought back for Karl.  I believe this will be a sign of things to come.

The Los Angeles Clippers come into this game way overvalued due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were previously undervalued due to not having Blake Griffin, but after showing they could play well without him, they are now overvalued.  Teams can play well without their superstars for a few games, but over time it starts to catch up to them.

This is also a huge letdown spot for the Clippers.  They are coming off three straight wins against playoff contenders in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio.  They have four straight games against playoff contenders coming up after this, including Monday's tilt with Memphis.  I look for them to take their foot off of the gas enough to fail to cover this massive 10-point spread tonight.

A big reason the Clippers have held their own without Griffin is DeAndre JOrdan.  He has totaled 72 points and 65 rebounds of his last three games.  Well, Sacramento is the best rebounding team in the NBA with a plus-4.5 mark.  Jordan has totaled 12 points and 18 rebounds as the teams have split their first two meetings this season. 

DeMarcus Cousins did not play in the Kings' 108-117 home loss to the Clippers in their last meeting.  He did play in their 98-92 upset win at L.A. in their first, and makes all the difference for this team.  Cousins had 31 points and 15 rebounds against the Celtics last night, while Rudy Gay scored 28.

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS after a game where it gave up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the past three seasons.  Sacramento is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days.  Six of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 9 points or less.  The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Bulls UNDER 204.5

The Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns are both going to be giving a little extra on the defensive end of the court tonight.  They are both coming off bad losses in their first games back from the break.  The Suns lost 109-111 at Minnesota, while the Bulls lost 91-100 at Detroit.

Look for Chicago to be especially tough on the defensive end.  It has gone 6-1 to the UNDER in its last seven games overall, allowing 101 or fewer points in seven straight.  It has given up just 90.6 points per game in its last five games overall as it is getting back to a dominant defensive team.

Phoenix is not a very good defensive team, but it is capable of limiting the Bulls, who play at a very slow pace and will control the tempo playing at home.  A big reason I like this UNDER is because the Suns will be out of sync offensively.  They traded away Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas, and now they'll be trying to work in Brandon Knight, Marcus Thornton and Danny Granger to the offense.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was the recent head-to-head series.  The Suns and Bulls have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.  They have combined for 192, 193, 179 and 178 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 185.5 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 204.5.

Phoenix is 11-1 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 8-1 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Suns last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Phoenix is 20-9 to the UNDER in road games against teams with winning records over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven when playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as only 3-point road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  The Nets (21-31) find themselves sitting in 9th place in the Eastern Conference playoff standings, just one game behind the Miami Heat.

That's why they should come out of the break highly motivated for a victory.  Plus, they went into the break with three straight losses, all of which came on the road to playoff contenders in Washington, Milwaukee and Memphis.  I look for them to dig down deep to get a win in their first game out of the break.

The Los Angeles Lakers (13-40) have the second-worst record in the Western Conference.  They have lost six straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall coming into this one.  Their last three losses all came by double-digits.  They are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off two or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 55-20 (73.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Nets are 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons. 

Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Los Angeles is 0-8 ATS in its last eight after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game.  The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194

The Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  In their first meeting of the season, the Bulls won 102-91 for 193 combined points.  I look for an even lower-scoring game in the second meeting.

The Pistons just traded point guard D.J. Augustin and forward Kyle Singler.  They got Reggie Jackson back in return, but he's not expected to play tonight.  They were already without Brandon Jennings.  That means the Pistons will essentially be without a point guard tonight, which will wreck their offensive production.

The Bulls have really been clamping down defensively here of late.  They have gone 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six games overall while holding all six opponents to 101 or fewer points, and five of those to 99 or less.  They have allowed an average of 88.3 points per game in their last four.

Chicago is 12-4 to the UNDER in road games vs. poor foul-drawing teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws this season.  The Bulls are 17-6 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Chicago is 14-3 to the UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 206

The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors are very familiar with one another right now as this will be their fourth and final meeting of the 2014-15 season.  Familiarity breeds defensive battles, and that will be the case tonight between these teams.

The first two meetings in this series were high-scoring and would have over this 206-point total.  However, they slowed down in the third meeting as the Hawks beat the Raptors 110-89 for 199 combined points.  The Hawks even shot 60.9% from the field in that game and it still only reached 199.

The biggest reason the Hawks have the best record in the East right now is their defense.  They only give up 96.8 points per game on the season and 95.3 points per game at home.  They rank 6th in the league in defensive efficiency this season.

Toronto is 13-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  We're seeing an average of 186.0 combined points per game in this spot in Raptors' games.  The Raptors have been held to 95 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall, and the UNDER is 4-1 in those contests.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Mavericks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5

The Oklahoma City Thunder return from the All-Star Break in a great position to make the playoffs.  They won five of their final six games before the break to get to 28-25 on the season and just a half-game behind the Phoenix Suns for the No. 8 seed in the West.

The Thunder haven't only been winning here of late, they've been dominating.  Four of their last five wins have come by double-digits, including a 16-point home win over Memphis, a 10-point win at Denver, a 23-point home win over the Clippers, and an 11-point road win at New Orleans.

The Dallas Mavericks are getting healthy coming out of the break.  They are expected to have Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler in the lineup for this game.  Amare Stoudemire is also probable after being acquired before the deadline.  While this is good news for the Mavs, it also has them overvalued coming into this game.  They should be more than 5-point dogs against the superior Thunder on the road.

The Thunder are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Mavericks.  Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Thunder are 23-5 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Bet Oklahoma City Thursday.

15* Rockets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, so the betting public has shunned this team here of late.  But keep in mind that they are coming off a grueling 8-game road trip that featured seven games against playoff contenders.

The Clippers did finish the trip with a resounding 115-98 road win over the Dallas Mavericks on Monday.  They have played their last two games without Blake Griffin, and while that is a concern, I don't believe it's as big of a deal as the betting public is making it out to be.  I also look at is as a 'wash' heading into this game with Houston because the Rockets are without Dwight Howard.

What I really like about this play is that it's a very tough situation for the Rockets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning a 127-118 shootout at Phoenix last night.  Without Howard, the Rockets are having to rely on James Harden too much.  He delivered with 40 points in 43 minutes of action last night, but he is running on fumes right now and will be ineffective tonight.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Clippers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Rockets.  These games haven't even been close as the Clippers have won by 17, 11, 8, 13 and 19 points with three of those victories actually coming on the road.  That's an average margin of victory of 13.6 points per game.  Harden has been limited to 18.6 points and 37.0 percent from the floor in those five contests.

Houston is 11-22 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Grizzlies UNDER 190.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have won 13 of their last 15 games overall.  They have done so behind what has been one of the league's best defenses during this stretch.  I look for another solid defensive performance from them tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.

The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Memphis' last 11 games overall.  It currently ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but has been much better than that of late.  The Grizzlies have allowed 94 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games overall, giving up an average of just 86.5 points per game during this stretch.

The Nets are no defensive juggernauts by any means, and Memphis may put up a decent point total, but I just don't expect this Brooklyn offense to have much success.  The Nets are a tired team right now as this will be their 4th game in 5 days.  I don't expect the fatigue to affect their defense, but it will affect their offense quite a bit.

Both of these teams like to play at slow paces.  Memphis ranks 26th in the league in pace, averaging 94.1 possessions per game.  Brooklyn ranks 25th in pace at 94.2 possessions per game.  The Nets aren't going to look to run at all because of how tired they are right now.  This game will be played in the half court from start to finish, which definitely favors the UNDER.

The last five meetings between Brooklyn and Memphis have average 180.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.5.  Plus, this is the highest posted total set in this series in any of the last seven meetings.  That fact alone shows you there's some value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Nets last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Nets last six games playing on 0 rest.  The UNDER is 16-7 in Nets last 23 road games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Grizzlies last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Grizzlies last 11 overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four vs. Eastern Conference.  These last four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Bulls UNDER 198

The Chicago Bulls certainly have an improved offense this season with Derrick Rose back healthy and the addition of Pau Gasol, but make no mistake about it, this team is still defense first.  That has really started to show here of late.

After a poor start to the season defensively, the Bulls have picked it up on that end of the floor of late.  They are 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 games overall.  They have allowed an average of just 92.3 points per game in their last four contests.

The Sacramento Kings have been a great UNDER bet here of late as well.  Indeed, they are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games overall.  Their defense has been respectable during this stretch as they've played the likes of Cleveland, Indiana, Golden State, Dallas, Utah and Phoenix.

I would consider four of those six teams to be elite offensively, and they held five of those six to 102 points or less.  However, the reason they are on a 6-0 UNDER run is because their offense has been horrid.  The Kings are averaging just 89.7 points in their last six games, not once reaching the 100-point mark.

The Kings could be without two of their top three scorers tonight, which will only make matters more difficult for them.  Rudy Gay (19.9 ppg) missed Sunday's game with a sore left foot and is questionable to return.  Darren Collison (16.1 ppg, 5.6 apg) has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain and is doubtful to return against the Bulls.

The recent head-to-head history between these teams is what really has me excited about the UNDER.  Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings as they've combined for 191, 181 and 169 points.  That's an average of 180.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.

Sacramento is 10-1 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Kings last six games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last four games overall.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Clippers +8.5

After seeing the Clippers get destroyed by the Thunder on Sunday in their first game without Blake Griffin, the betting public has been quick to jump on the Dallas Mavericks today.  That has created some excellent line value to pounce on the Clippers as 8.5-point road underdogs in this matchup.

Losing Griffin was a bit of a surprise as the news that he was out until after the All-Star Break wasn't announced until Sunday morning.  The Clippers obviously did not play well in their first game without him, but they'll make the proper adjustments heading into this game tonight.

Plus, I look for the Clippers to dig down a little deeper tonight to try and put an end to their four-game losing streak.  All four losses have come on the road to the Nets, Cavaliers, Raptors and Thunder, so they have obviously been dealt a brutal schedule.  This is the final game of a long seven-game road trip, and the Clippers will be motivated to try and end it on a high note.  With the All-Star Break coming up shortly, I don't expect fatigue to be a factor.

While the Clippers are undervalued due to having lost four straight, the Mavericks are overvalued after winning five of their last six. Well, their five victories have come against the likes of Miami, Orlando, Minnesota, Sacramento and Portland.  The win over the Blazers came at home in overtime, and it represents the only playoff team they have beaten during this stretch. 

In fact, the Mavericks are just 1-5 straight up in their last six games against teams with winning records.  While the Griffin injury is big for the Clippers, the oddsmakers are discounting the Rajon Rondo injury for the Mavericks, which is nearly as big as the loss of Griffin for the Clippers.  It all adds up to the value being with the road underdog tonight.

The Clippers are 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with the Mavericks.  Their two losses have come by 6 points at home and by 7 points (in OT) on the road.  So, they have clearly had the Mavericks' number in this series here of late.  In fact, they have not lost by more than 7 points to Dallas in any of their last 11 meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 8.5-point spread.  Roll with the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Bucks UNDER 193.5

The Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  The books have set the bar too high in this game, and we'll take advantage.  They have set the bar too high time and time again for both of these teams when it comes to the point total.

Indeed, the Nets are 31-19 to the UNDER this season, while the Bucks are 30-21 to the UNDER.  The UNDER is 16-6 in Bucks' last 22 games overall, while the UNDER is 4-0 in Nets' last four games overall.  Yet, they continue to inflate the totals of both of these teams here tonight.

The reason the Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the league this season at 28-23 is because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.1 points per 100 possessions.  Amazingly, they have allowed 95 or fewer points in 16 of their last 23 games overall.

The Bucks figure to shut down a Brooklyn team that ranks 24th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 100.0 points per 100 possessions.  Another reason to love the UNDER here is because the Nets play at a slow tempo.  They rank 25th in the league in pace, averaging 94.2 possessions per game.

Many amateur bettors will see the final score of the first meeting between these teams this season and jump on the OVER.  Milwaukee beat Brooklyn 122-118 in double-overtime back on November 19th.  Well, that game was tied 95-95 at the end of regulation for 190 combined points.

Brooklyn is 12-2 to the UNDER in road games following a loss this season.  Milwaukee is 12-2 to the UNDER off a win by 6 points or less this year.  The UNDER is 16-6 in Nets last 22 road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four Monday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bucks last six vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Bucks last 11 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +10

I realize the Orlando Magic are playing the second of a back-to-back after their tough 97-98 loss to the Chicago Bulls last night.  However, I believe they will be motivated enough to push through the fatigue.  After all, this is still a very young team, so back-to-backs don't bother them as much.

The reason the Magic will be motivated is because they will be looking to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Wizards.  The Wizards are 3-0 against the Magic this season, but those three wins have come by 7, 5 and 2 points.  In fact, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.

Don't be surprised to see the Magic pull off the upset tonight with the way they have been playing here of late.  They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma City as 10.5-point dogs, by 7 at San Antonio as 13.5-point dogs, by 1 to Chicago as 6-point dogs, and they also beat the Lakers by 6 as 4.5-point favorites.  As you can see, they have hung right with some of the best teams in the league here of late.

The Wizards are not playing well at all right now, which is why they should not be laying double-digit points to the Magic.  Washington is 1-5 straight up in its last six games overall.  It is also 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games overall, yet it continues to be overvalued tonight against the Magic laying such a big number.

The Magic are a sensational 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  This trend just goes to show their ability to hang with good teams on the road.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.  Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

Due to owning the best record in the NBA at 42-9 on the season, the Atlanta Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are only 2-point road underdogs against one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Memphis Grizzlies today when it should be much higher.

Atlanta is overvalued due to going 17-0 in the month of January.  This is a team that has continued to win, but keep in mind that nine of its last 10 games have been at home.  The only road game during this stretch resulted in a 100-115 loss at New Orleans.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Hawks, too.  They are coming off arguably their biggest win of the season as they beat the Golden State Warriors 124-116 on Friday night.  The Warriors own the best record in the West, so it's only human nature for the Hawks to suffer a letdown off such a huge win that they believe validated them.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, come into this game hungry for a victory after blowing a late lead on Friday to lose in Minnesota 89-90.  That was a rare loss for this team.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are 12-2 in their last 14 games overall, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  That includes wins over the likes of the Suns (twice), Blazers, Raptors, Mavericks and Thunder.

Memphis has been playing its most suffocating defense of the season here of late.  It has allowed 94 or fewer points in eight of its last nine games overall, giving up an average of 86.3 points per game during this stretch.  Nothing is coming easy against this team, which features three of the best defenders at their positions in Mike Concey, Tony Allen and Marc Gasol.

Memphis is 21-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.2 points per game.  The Grizzlies are 14-5 against the East this season, including 8-1 at home.  Zach Randolph has averaged 20.1 points and 14.9 boards in his last eight home games.  Atlanta did beat Memphis 96-86 at home in their first meeting, but the Grizzlies were on the tail end of a 4-7 stretch and were without Randolph for most of it.  Now healthy, the Grizzlies will be out for revenge in this one.

Memphis is 73-48 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 6-2-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* Clippers/Thunder NBA on ABC GAME OF THE MONTH on UNDER 210.5

The books have set the bar too high with this total this afternoon between the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder.  Both teams will be inspired to get after it defensively because each is coming off losses due to poor performances defensively.

The Clippers lost at Toronto 107-123 last time out, while the Thunder lost to the Pelicans 113-116 at home.  These were uncharacteristic defensive performances for both teams, and I fully expect both head coach Doc Rivers and head coach Mark Brooks to let their teams know about how unacceptable they were.

The Clippers have allowed 100 or fewer points in six of their last 10 games overall, while the Thunder have allowed 100 or fewer points in five of their last six games.  That just goes to show how uncharacteristic those defensive efforts really were as they were an aberration rather than a normality.

What stands out to me is that this has been a low-scoring series here of late in comparison to today's 210.5-point total.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scored of 183, 202, 209 and 200 points.  That's an average of 198.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points less than today's posted total.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Clippers last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-7-2 in Clippers last 30 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Clippers last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last five vs. NBA Northwest Division foes.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Clippers last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games following a loss.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.