15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -5

The Lakers simply own the Sacramento Kings, and I see no reason for that to change tonight. Sacramento is a bit overvalued early in the season after their 3-1 start, which includes unimpressive wins all by 3 points or less over the Timberwolves, Raptors and Cavaliers. This is by far the stiffest test they have faced this season, as they also lost to the Nets.

The Lakers have been very impressive en route to their 4-0 start, going 3-1 ATS in the process. Their last two victories have come by 19 and 24 points. The Lakers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings with Sacramento, with eight of those wins coming by six points or more. L.A. is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Sacramento. This play also falls under a system that is 23-4 (85%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points. Roll with the Lakers Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Heat UNDER 193

The Miami Heat are a perfect 4-0 to the UNDER this season by playing tremendous defense. Opposing teams are scoring just 80.7 PPG and shooting 38.9% from the field on the Heat. I cannot see the Timberwolves, who have one of the worst offensive starting line-ups in the league, put up more than 80 on Miami tonight. It will take some time for Miami to gel offensively, which has been the case this season as the Heat are scoring 93.5 PPG and shooting 44.3% from the floor.

Both meetings last season between these teams went UNDER the number, with combined scores of 181 and 179 points. Miami is 18-6 to the UNDER off a road win over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are a perfect 11-0 to the UNDER after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Bet the UNDER Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1

I like the Bulls at home tonight to hand the Portland Trail Blazers their first loss of the season. Portland is clearly an improved team this season, but they don't have an impressive win yet. Their victories have come against the Suns, Clippers and Knicks and this will easily be their toughest test yet. The Blazers are actually shooting better from 3-point range (45.3%) than from the field (45.1%), and obviously those numbers won't last. Portland isn't even a very good team from the perimeter.

The Blazers are also without Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla right now, which makes for a lack of depth inside. Chicago is playing great defense in the early going, holding opponents to 39.4% from the floor. But the Bulls are only shooting 21.9% from 3-point range, and obviously that won't last either as they are much better from the perimeter this season with the addition of Kyle Korver. I simply believe the Blazers are overvalued at this point in the season, and this line is a clear reflection of that. Bet the Bulls Monday.

20* Magic/Heat NBA on ESPN No-Brainer on Orlando +3.5

There has been a lot of trash talking in the media between the Heat and Magic, and they'll get a chance to go at each other tonight. Orlando has taken exception to the fact that Miami has been tagged the favorites to come out of the East even though the Magic reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year after making the NBA Finals in 2009. They just don't feel like they get the respect they deserve, and as a result this is a very hungry and dangerous team. Orlando put together a perfect preseason by going 7-0 and winning by more than 20 points per game on average. They routed Washington 112-83 in their season-opener as well.

"We're trying to take their heads off," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "Honestly, I'm sick of listening every hour about Miami - Miami that, how great they are, how big they are, what kind of record they gonna have,"' said backup center Marcin Gortat. Orlando is 14-3 in their last 17 meetings with Miami, including 7-2 in their last 9 road meetings. The Heat look good on paper, but they haven't proven they are worthy of all this hype yet. I believe Orlando is the better team at this point in the season and will certainly be the more motivated squad tonight. The Magic are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Bet Orlando Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/76ers OVER 193

These are two guard-led teams which means that I expect a fast-paced shootout in Philadelphia tonight. Atlanta has made some changes to their offense this season to try and get the ball out on the fast break more to take advantage of their athleticism. They did it to perfection in their season-opener against Memphis, beating the Grizzlies 119-104 while shooting 52.5% from the field. They'll push the pace again tonight, and the 76ers are built to run with them with guys like Andre Iguodala.

In two meetings in 2010 between the Hawks and 76ers, they combined to score 203 and 205 points. With a total of only 193.5 tonight, the clear value is with the OVER. The OVER is 10-3 in Hawks last 13 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 9-3 in Hawks last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic division. The OVER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 9-2 in 76ers last 11 vs. NBA Southeast division. Roll with the OVER Friday.

15* Wizards/Magic NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Orlando -13.5

The Orlando Magic are flying under the radar this season with all of the hype going to the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference. But that's just how they like it. Orlando tips off their season with a blowout win over a depleted Washington Wizards team Thursday night. Washington is down two starters in G Gilbert Arenas who is out with an ankle injury, and F Josh Howard who is out until early December with a knee injury. That leaves John Wall and Andray Blatche as their only legitimate scorers.

The Magic have arguably the best starting line-up in the game and also plenty of depth on the bench. The Magic are fully healthy and they'll start Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard and the underrated Mickael Pietrus tonight. It's a mismatch across the board in Orlando's favor. The Magic are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Wizards. They won their two most recent meetings with Washington by 14 and 27 points. The Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Take Orlando Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -8.5

The San Antonio Spurs are primed to make a run in the Western Conference this season. They are basically at full strength, with a starting line-up of Parker, Ginobli, Jefferson, Duncan and McDeyess. I believe they will be a force early in the season because they got off to a slow start last year due to injuries. It really cost them, as the Spurs had to settle for the No. 7 seed in the West. They beat Dallas in the opening round, but then were beaten out by Phoenix in the conference semis.

Indiana actually got worse in the offseason, which is hard to believe after a 32-50 campaign a year ago. The Pacers have a starting line-up of Josh McRoberts, Roy Hibbert, Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy and Darren Collison. They have little depth as well, and their best player in Granger is questionable tonight as he deals with an ankle injury. The Spurs are 178-131 ATS in their last 309 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, while the Pacers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Take the Spurs Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5

The Miami Heat are already on a back-to-back situation after losing 80-88 to the Boston Celtics last night. They were dominated inside and on the boards last night, which will be a problem for them all season long. I like the 76ers in this spot in their home opener as it will obviously be a packed house with Lebron James and company coming to town.

The 76ers are going to be great this season against guard-led teams like the Heat. That's because they have a starting line-up of Jrue Holliday and Andre Iguodala in the backcourt, and Evan Turner and Louis Williams backing them up. Thaddeus Young is a stud at small forward, and this team is really build to run with anyone. I believe that former 76ers guard Doug Collins is a great coach who will get the most out of this team as he's posted a 332-287 record in his career as a head man. Roll with the 76ers Wednesday.

25* NBA Season-Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets +7.5

Kobe Bryant says his knee is only about 75% right now and it was clear through the entire season that he didn't have much elevation. Andrew Bynum will miss the first part of the season. This won't be the same Lakers team we saw in June when they won the NBA Finals. The Lakers are going to be a great team to fade in the early going, especially tonight against an Rockets team that is flying under the radar.

Houston welcomes back Yao Ming who is finally healthy, and he has a great nucleus around him with the likes of Louis Scola, Shane Battier, Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin. I believe that the Rockets are certainly a sleeper heading into the 2010-11 campaign. The Lakers struggled early in two meetings with the Rockets last season. Houston beat the Lakers 101-91 in L.A., and the Lakers beat the Rockets 103-102 in Houston. I see this one going down to the wire considering the Rockets are at full strength while the Lakers are far from it. Bet Houston Tuesday.

15* Heat/Celtics NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Miami -1.5

Lebron James and company are hungry to show the world what they are made of, starting with this season-opener against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are filled with old-timers that are past their prime, while the Heat have most of their players right in the middle of their prime. I know Boston will want to make a statement as well, but I just don't believe they have the talent to match up with this Heat team in 2010.

Boston went just 21-31 ATS at home last season. The Celtics weren't much better on the road, but they certainly were one of the worst home teams in the league against the spread. The Celtics also have two key players out, with Kendrick Perkins and Delonte West both missing time to start the season. It really takes away from their depth and when you have an old team like Boston, depth is very important. Take the Heat Tuesday.

25* 2010 NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -320

I rarely take an NBA Money Line. That being said, I have 100% confidence the Lakers are going to win Game 7 on their home floor. Los Angeles fought all season to get home-court advantage, and this is where it will pay off just as it did in Game 6. Not only did the Celtics lose Game 6 in blowout fashion, but they lost their starting center in Kendrick Perkins. The Lakers height advantage is huge without him in there, and Boston is a much less physical team without him as well. Perkins suffered torn knee ligaments and head coach Doc Rivers has pronounced him out for the game. Look for L.A. to own the paint tonight, which is a key factor considering every team that has won the rebounding has won each game thus far.

No visiting team has won an NBA championship in Game 7 since the Washington Bullets did it in 1978. In the history of the NBA Finals, the home team has won 13 of 16 Game 7's. So as you can see, history is on our side. Los Angeles has been the better team all season, and they will prove it one more time tonight. Boston is stunned right now, and though they'll give their best effort, they just don't have what it takes to match-up with the Lakers. The home crowd will be huge, and just like in Game 6, the Celtics will get nothing from their bench. L.A. will dominate inside, and they have the best closer in the game in Kobe Bryant to finish it off for them if it gets close. But I see the Lakers controlling the game from start to finish in a very decisive victory. I believe the value is there to take the Lakers -320 on the Money Line as 81% of the time the home team has won Game 7 in the Finals, but if you don't think you can lay the juice then feel free to take the Lakers -7 against the spread. I could see this game being decided by single-digits which is why I'm not laying the points, but I cannot see the Lakers losing in this spot. Roll with the Lakers on the Money Line in Game 7 as my NBA GAME OF THE YEAR!

15* Celtics/Lakers Game 6 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 189

Look for L.A. to clamp it down defensively after allowing the Celtics to shoot better than 56% from the field in Game 5. Even so, Boston still only managed to score 92 points. Both teams would have to average 95 to get the over in Game 6, and I don't see either team getting to that number. These teams know each other inside and out, and that's why as the series has gone on, we have seen some very low-scoring games. The last 3 games in Boston saw 175, 185 and 178 combined points. Expect another defensive battle in Game 6 with what's at stake.

This play also falls under a system that is 38-8 (83%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - in the NBA Finals. This is the biggest stage in professional basketball, and 83% of the time the total has been set in this range the UNDER has come through. I have no reason to believe either team is going to magically figure out how to put up a big number on the opposing defense in Game 6. The Lakers are 16-4 to the UNDER after a game with 15 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. L.A. is out of sync offensively right now, but their defense has kept them in this series. Look for that to be the case again tonight in a closely-contested defensive struggle in Game 6 with neither team topping 95 points. Roll with the UNDER.

20* Lakers/Celtics Game 5 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +2.5

No team has won back-to-back games in this series, and I don't see it happening in Game 5 tonight, either. The Lakers let a 2-point lead heading into the 4th quarter slip away in Game 4, and I fully expect them to come out and put the Celtics away early tonight, while closing the deal late behind Kobe Bryant. The Celtics aren't going to get the same efforts they did from Baby Davis and Nate Robinson last game. There are clear mismatches across the board in the Lakers favor, and they'll take advantage of them tonight after having 2 days to practice in between games. Phil Jackson is the king of making adjustments, and he'll put his team in the best spot to successful tonight.

Kobe did score 33 points in Game 4, but he wasn't aggressive in getting to the rim. He shot very well from the outside, but he knows that his team's best chances of winning are for him to get into the paint and find open teammates to get everyone involved. Kobe will do just that tonight in a complete team effort, and he'll also get his 30 points in the process. Both Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace are each one technical away from getting suspended for a game, which will take away their aggressiveness. The Lakers are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games when tied in a playoff series, showing their resilience. Kobe and company step up to the plate again tonight. Bet the Lakers in Game 5.

20* Lakers/Celtics Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 190

With all the pressure of a Game 4 in Boston tonight, don't expect either team to light it up offensively. These teams know each other inside and out, and both have played excellent defense to this point because of it. The Lakers are not getting good shots offensively, but they are making up for it with tremendous defensive effort. Expect a similar combined score as Game 3 where 175 combined points were scored in a 91-84 Lakers' victory.

Boston is 12-4 to the UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. The Lakers are 9-1 (90%) to the UNDER after allowing 85 points or less this season. The Celtics are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last 6 home games overall. With what's at stake tonight, I fully expect another defensive battle. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers +2.5

I fully expect the Lakers to re-gain home-court advantage tonight. Every time they have been tested in the playoffs, they have responded with a win. Sometimes this team can take nights off like they did against Boston last time out, but after losing Game 2 I expect the Lakers to be on top of their game tonight in Boston. The Lakers have won both meetings in Boston since losing there in 2008, so they have confidence that they can come into this building and get back the home court advantage they lost. Plus, the Celtics haven't been a very good home team this year, losing to both the Cavs and Magic at home in the playoffs. Boston is 31-19 SU & 19-30 ATS at home this season.

Kobe got into foul trouble in Game 2 and had to sit out much of the second half. He won't make the same mistake in this one as he knows his team cannot afford to have him sitting on the bench. Kobe plays his best in the face of adversity, and he'll help lead this team to a big performance in Game 3. Also expect more from Lamar Odom and Ron Artest, two players who did not show up in Game 2. Ray Allen will not explode for 32 points again tonight, and Rajon Rondo will not post another triple-double. The Lakers are 18-6 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. Los Angeles is 36-20 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The road team and the underdog is now 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Lakers in Game 3 as my NBA Finals G.O.T.Y.!

20* Celtics/Lakers Game 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -6

In other series, it would be a good spot to back the losing Game 1 team in Game 2. But the Lakers are playing this series more motivated than any other series they have played since Kobe Bryant was drafted, and they aren't going to let up in Game 2. The fact of the matter is that this Los Angeles team is better than the '08 one that lost to Boston, with both Ron Artest and Andrew Bynum adding the much-needed toughness that this team lacked. Also, Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant are each tougher players since that series loss to the Celtics, while Boston is only 2 years older. That's why the Lakers will be able to sustain their play in Game 2.

This play also falls under a system that is 24-5 (83%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs (BOSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). The Celtics are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 game against Pacific Division opponents. Bet the Lakers in Game 2.

20* Celtics/Lakers NBA Finals Game 1 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

The Lakers are undefeated at home in the playoffs, and they send a message to Boston with a blowout Game 1 home victory tonight. This team has been motivated ever since losing to the Celtics in the '08 NBA Finals, and that hunger carried them to a world title in 2009. It will stay with them in this series with the Celtics and though I'm not saying the Lakers will win this series, I am saying they will own Game 1.

Boston is just 1-8 ATS against Pacific division opponents this season. The Celtics are 9-20 ATS in non-conference games this year. The Lakers are 18-6 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 14.4 PPG. Boston is 6-18 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. Roll with the Lakers in Game 1.

15* on Lakers/Suns OVER 215.5

I'm siding with the OVER in Game 6 tonight as 4 of the first 5 games in this series have resulted in 221 or more combined points. The Lakers shot 42% in Game 5 and 29% from the 3-point stripe, and still managed to score 103 points. I cannot see the Suns slowing the Lakers down again like they did in Game 5, only to lose. Phoenix wasn't at their best, either, shooting just 33% from the 3-point line and 46% for the game. I did have the UNDER in Game 5 and predicted a defensive battle, but I am going the other way with Game 6 knowing that there's no way in hell both teams will be as piss-poor offensively again tonight. The key adjustments in this game will be on the offensive end for both teams.

The Lakers are a perfect 7-0 to the OVER in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season. The Suns are 37-18 to the OVER in home games off a road loss against a division rival since 1996. It gets even better for the Suns in home games off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival since 1996, as the OVER has gone 11-1 (92%) in this spot. The Lakers are 8-1 to the OVER after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more this season. Roll with the OVER in Game 6.

20* Magic/Celtics NBA on ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 189

205 combined points were scored in Game 5, and I see Game 6 being another high-scoring affair. In fact, I am a perfect 3-0 with my totals in this series, hitting the UNDER in Game 1 and the OVER in both Game 4 and Game 5. As this series has gone on, the games have become more high-scoring. The Magic have found out that they must run more to give themselves the best chance to beat Boston. So don't expect Orlando to try and slow down at all tonight. Boston has no problem running the fast break either, and they will look to counter Orlando a little more tonight to try and get easy buckets in transition themselves when the opportunites arise. Boston has scored 92 or more points in their last 16 playoff games, so they been very consistent offensively. The Magic are starting to heat up finally because of the adjustments they have made. Orlando shot 52% in Game 5 en route to 113 points, and I really think this team believes they can come back and win this series so I expect another solid shooting performance in Game 6. Fouls will also play a factor in the OVER as neither team is going to want to just throw in the towel late in the 4th quarter if they are down.

This play also falls under a system that is 32-7 (82%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - after allowing 110 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more. Over the last 3 seasons, this system has gone 10-1 (91%) to the OVER. Roll with the OVER in Game 6.

15* on Suns/Lakers UNDER 218

After 4 straight overs in this series, the clear value is on the UNDER in Game 5. This is especially the case after Kobe Bryant voiced his opinion on how bad the Lakers' defense has been in this series, and how they need to put 100% focus into the defensive end and their offense will take care of itself. Look for the best defensive effort of the series from the Lakers tonight which will keep this game UNDER the number. The only reason the over came through in Game 3 and Game 4 was due to fouls in the end by the Lakers as they prolonged the game even though it was basically over.

Game 5 is the most important game in this series, and chances are it will decide the series. That's why I look for the effort on the defensive end to be magnified by both teams tonight. The Lakers are 23-8 to the UNDER after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 11-1 (92%) to the UNDER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. Roll with the UNDER in Game 5.

15* on Celtics/Magic OVER 186

The Magic had great success against the Celtics when they pushed the tempo in Game 4. They opened the game outscoring the Celtics 31-26 in the first quarter. But Orlando didn't stick to the game plan the rest of the way, and they were fortunate to win in overtime. In Game 5 at home, I see the Magic forcing the action for four quarters as this becomes the highest-scoring game of the series. Boston was also out of character in Game 4 as they settled for too many bad shots, and Rajon Rondo just quit penetrating Orlando's defense. Look for Rondo to be more aggressive tonight which will lead to easier shots for his teammates.

Boston is 10-2 to the OVER after a loss by 6 points or less this season. The Celtics are 46-24 to the OVER in road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread since 1996. The OVER is 35-17 in the Celtics' last 52 games following a loss. The OVER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the OVER in Game 5.

25* Lakers/Suns Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER 221.5

After cashing in the OVER in Game 2 and Game 3, I'm going to back the UNDER in Game 4 tonight as this total has simply been inflated. The more times two teams play each other, the more they become familiar with one another. This makes it easier for each squad to be able to stop or at least slow down what each team likes to do offensively. Game 1 finished with a posted total of 210.5, Game 2 finished with a posted total of 216 and Game 3 ended with a Posted Total of 219.5. So this total for Game 4 has been set 11 points higher than Game 1. This just shows the kind of value we are getting with the UNDER tonight in what I think will be a defensive battle.

The Lakers are 12-3 to the UNDER in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 13-4 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 11-0 in Lakers last 11 games overall as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 7-2 in Suns last 9 games as a home underdog. All signs point toward a much lower-scoring contest in Game 4 with the pressure amplified as the Lakers try to grab a stranglehold on this series, while the Suns try and even it up at 2-2. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4.

15* on Magic/Celtics OVER 187.5

I am finding a lot of value with the OVER in Game 4 Monday. Yes, the first three games of this series have gone under the posted number, but I don't see this game being played at the same slow pace. Obviously, Orlando has figured out that they cannot afford to get in a half-court game with Boston because they are getting killed right now. I've watched the Magic play numerous times this season, and they are at their best when they run. I look for Orlando to push the tempto in Game 4, and they aren't just going to give up on their season so fouls in the end will also help push the final score of this game OVER the number.

This play also falls under a system that is 29-8 (78%) to the OVER through the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ORLANDO) - after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less. The last 8 times the Magic have scored 75 or less points, they have come back with a 6-1-1 OVER record in their next 8 games. The Celtics are 21-6 to the OVER in their last 27 games as a home favorite in the 5.0 to 10.5 range. Bet the OVER in Game 4.

15* on Lakers/Suns OVER 218.5

Now 7 of the last 9 meetings in this series have seen 221 or more combined points. The first two games of this series have seen 235 and 236 combined points, respectively. I expect another high-scoring contest in Game 3 as both teams top the 110 mark.

The Suns are 14-2 to the OVER in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are 28-14 to the OVER revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 5-0-1 in the Lakers last 6 games overall, while the OVER is 5-1 in the Suns' last 6 overall. Phoenix is 8-0 to the OVER in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet the OVER in Game 3.

20* Magic/Celtics Game 3 No-Brainer on Orlando +4

The Magic have been one of the best road teams in the league this season, and they aren't going to go quietly in this series. They have plenty of motivation after Paul Pierce's rant after Game 2, saying the Celtics were going to close it out at home. Orlando is 29-16 SU & 25-17 ATS on the road this season. Boston has actually played worse at home than they have on the road, going 29-18 SU & 17-29 ATS. Orlando has won 5 of their last 9 road meetings in Boston over the last 3 seasons.

Orlando is 18-4 (82%) ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season. A road trip is exactly what Orlando needs to get back into this series. Boston is 8-20 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 14-3 (82%) ATS in road games after covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 16-4 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. This is the first game the Magic have been an underdog in the postseason, and they are showing their best value of the playoffs in Game 3. Take Orlando Saturday.

20* Lakers/Suns Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 215.5

The OVER is 4-0-1 in the Lakers last 5 games overall and the OVER is 4-1 in the Suns last 5 games overall. Both teams are hitting on all cylinders offensively. Though I do not expect the Lakers to shoot 58% again in Game 2, Phoenix jus doesn't have an answer for them. The Lakers put up 128 points in Game 1 and there's no reason to believe that Los Angeles won't put up 115-plus against the overmatched Suns tonight. Phoenix scored 107 points in Game 1 and shot 49%. Similar numbers from them can be expected in Game 2 tonight.

The Suns and Lakers have combined to score 221 or more points in 6 of their last 8 meetings. When these teams get together, it's pretty easy to predict that a shootout will ensue. The Suns struggle with the Lakers' size inside and they have no answer for Kobe Bryant. The Lakers struggle against the Suns' pick-and-roll offense because Derek Fisher and company cannot stay with Steve Nash and keep him out of the lane consistently.

This play falls under a system that is 27-6 (82%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. Get ready for another shootout tonight. Bet the OVER in Game 2.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic -7

The Orlando Magic played, by far, their worst game of the playoffs in Game 1. The long layoff coupled with the lack of competition in their first two series ended up in a lackluster effort to start this series. Still, Orlando had a legitimate chance to pull off the comeback in the end. They closed to within two points in the closing seconds after trailing by 16 to start the fourth quarter. It's a sign that Orlando can be completely dominant in this series if they just give an average-to-good effort. And there's little doubt that the Magic will come out firing on all cylinders tonight after losin Game 1. The Magic are 66-32-2 ATS in their last 100 games following a S.U. loss. This trend just shows how resilient this team has been over the past few seasons.

This play also falls under a system that is 56-20 (74%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (ORLANDO) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. This system is 11-3 this season and 38-13 over the last 3 years as well. Bet Orlando in Game 2 as my NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR.

15* on Los Angeles Lakers -6

The Lakers still hold a grudge against the Suns after losing a couple painful playoff series to Phoenix over the past five years. Kobe and company have not forgotten, and they will want to come out and make a statement in Game 1 tonight that they are the kings of the West now. Even in the regular season this year the Lakers have taken it to the Suns, winning three out of four match-ups. The Lakers have won 4 straight home meetings with Phoenix, and their last 3 victories have come by 20, 19 and 26 points, respectively. The Lakers are 10-1 (91%) ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs this season.

This play also falls under a system that is 68-31 (69%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This system is 14-6 this season alone. Bet the Lakers in Game 1.

20* Celtics/Magic NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 189.5

The UNDER has been a staple when the Celtics and Magic get together recently. The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings and we're seeing a combined average score of just over 175 PPG. In fact, the highest combined point total outcome in the last 8 meetings has been 190 points, with 189 or less in the seven other meetings. So we are getting some nice value with this UNDER in Game 1. Boston has scored 95 or less points in their last 8 meetings with the Magic, averaging 86.4 PPG during this span. Orlando is averaging 89.8 PPG in the last 8 meetings.

It's predictable that both teams will get off to slow starts offensively in this one. The Magic are obviously feeling a little rust after their long break since sweeping the Hawks. That doesn't mean they won't be on top of their game defensively. They will make life hard for the Celtics, who just don't have the overall height to get easy looks. Plus Jameer Nelson has the quickness to keep Celtics' point guard Rajon Rondo out of the paint, which will throw Boston out of sync offensively as Rondo has been able to do whatever he wants through the first 2 rounds. Orlando is 8-0 to the UNDER after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the UNDER in Game 1.

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No Doubt Rout on Boston -1

The Cleveland Cavaliers are simply tanking in this series. Lebron James has struggled, but he is being asked to do too much as none of his role players that Cleveland brought in to help him out are stepping up. Once again I don't see it happening in Game 6 tonight in a hostile atmosphere in Boston. The Celtics held a 3-2 lead on Orlando last year in the conference semis before losing the final two games. They know that this Game 6 is like a Game 7 to them, and they do not want to go back to Cleveland so expect the pedal to be to the metal tonight.

The Cavaliers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. loss. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. They have not been able to make the proper adjustments when playing on 1 days' rest. The same cannot be said for Boston, as the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Doc Rivers has been making all the right calls, while Mike Brown is simply getting outcoached in this series. Brown is the new master of panic while Rivers is a cool customer, and his players feed off of it and perform at their best when the going gets tough. I fully expect another blowout victory for the Celtics in Game 6 as they clinch this series. Bet Boston.

25* Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 194.5

With the series tied 2-2, there's a lot at stake in Game 5 tonight. It will bring out the best defensive efforts in both teams, and you will not see a lapse from the Cavaliers like we did in Game 2, or from the Celtics like we did in Game 3. Both teams will be sharp defensively tonight. There was also a lot at stake in Game 4, where Boston won 97-87 for 184 combined points. Look for the Cavs to take a page from teh Celtics and to come back with their best defensive effort of the series in this one as they try and keep home-court advantage.

This play also falls under a system that is 30-11 (73%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more. Boston is 17-6 to the UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the UNDER in Game 5.

20* Magic/Hawks TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 193

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta, with combined scores of 180, 170, 169 and 170 points. Once again, the books have set the number much too high in Game 4 tonight between the Magic and Hawks. The Magic are 18-5 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 10-1 to the UNDER after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 2 seasons.

This play also falls under a system that is 27-5 (84%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4.

20* Cavs/Celtics ABC No Doubt Rout on Cleveland -1

The Cavs came out flat in Game 2 after winning Game 1, but responded by handing the Celtics their worst home loss of the season in Game 3. Cleveland won 124-95 behind 38 points from Lebron James, and they led by 20-plus points for nearly the entire contest. Look for the Cavs to learn from their Game 2 mistake and to keep the pedal to the metal in Game 4.

This play falls under a system that is 28-6 (82%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more. It's also worth noting that Boston is 2-10 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. The Celtics are no 15-29 ATS in all home games this season and playing in front of their home fans has no proven to be much of an advantage at all this year. Roll with Cleveland in Game 4.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Hawks/Magic UNDER 195

The last three meetings in Atlanta have gone UNDER the number, with combined scores of 170, 169 and 170 points. The games in Atlanta are played at a much slower pace than the games in Orlando have been of late. This is because these teams both like to play at different tempos. Orlando likes to push the ball up the court and look to fast break, and at home they are able to control the tempo a lot better. Atlanta likes to get in a half court game with their opposition, and they have been able to do that against Orlando at home. I see no reason they won't be able to slow this game down tonight in front of their home crowd, which gives them a much better shot at beating the Magic.

This play also falls under a system that is 26-5 (84%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. This system has gone 3-1 this season and 16-3 over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in Game 3.

15* on San Antonio Spurs -6

The Spurs are one of the most resilient teams in the NBA. They aren't going to just pack it in after falling behind 2-0 to the Suns. Phoenix did what they had to do to protect their home court, and it's only human nature for a team like the Suns to relax in this Game 3 situation. The Spurs are 67-32 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season since 1996. Phoenix is 47-72 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1996. The Spurs are 21-6-3 ATS in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

This play falls into a system that is 68-29 (70%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This system is 14-4 this season cashing 78% of the time. Bet the Spurs.

20* Cavs/Celtics NBA on ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 193

The UNDER is 26-11 in Cavaliers last 37 games following a double-digit loss at home. Look for a much better defensive effort from Cleveland in Game 3 after getting embarrassed on their home floor by the Celtics. The UNDER is 18-6 in Cavaliers last 24 Conference Semifinals games. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 Conference Semifinals games as well. Boston also tends to play in low-scoring games following a blowout victory. The Celtics are 28-12 to the UNDER in their last 40 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

This play also falls under a 45-15 (75%) UNDER System over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Roll with the UNDER in Game 3.

20* Hawks/Magic Thursday Night No-Brainer on Orlando -9.5

The Magic have absolutely owned the Atlanta Hawks, and that won't change tonight. This team is on a mission since losing in the NBA Finals last year, and they know not to let down. Orlando is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Hawks. At home, Orlando is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings while winning by 34, 32, 18 and 43 points. The Hawks cannot match-up with Dwight Howard inside, and having to double team him opens up the 3-pointer for the Magic and Orlando is the best 3-point shooting team in the league.

This play also falls under a system that is 33-10 (77%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (ORLANDO) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). They have all the momentum right now and I don't feel the Hawks actually think they can beat this team, which is half the battle. Bet the Magic in Game 2.

20* Spurs/Suns NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 205.5

All 4 meetings between the Spurs and Suns this season have gone OVER the number. They are actually going way OVER on average, with combined scores of 220, 223, 213 and 213 points in their last 4 meetings, respectively. The value is still there tonight with the OVER in Game 2 in what is sure to be another hotly-contested showdown where there will be plenty of fouls in the end to also help get this thing OVER the number. The Spurs are 8-0 to the OVER vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making >=39% of their attempts this season.

This play also falls under a system that is 36-8 (82%) to the OVER through the last 5 seasons. This system tells us to bet the OVER on any team (PHOENIX) - in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series. Roll with the OVER in Game 2.

20* Hawks/Magic NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Orlando -9

Orlando has simply owned the Atlanta Hawks, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Their last three home meetings haven't even been close, as the Magic have won by 18, 32, and 34 points, respectively. With 8 days' rest in between games, there's no question the Magic will be very hungry in Game 1 tonight. The extra preparation is a huge advantage for Orlando. Meanwhile, the Hawks are only on 1 days' rest and not having the extra time to prepare for Orlando will really hurt them in this series, starting with Game 1.

Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win. Orlando is 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite. This game has double-digit victory for the Magic written all over it. Take Orlando in Game 1.

20* Spurs/Suns NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 203.5

After both the Spurs and Suns played in low-scoring opening round series, the value starting with Game 1 in this series is clearly with the OVER. The Suns went 5-0 UNDER in their final 5 games against Portland, while the Spurs went 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 games against Dallas. As a result, the odds makers have moved this total down well below what it should be set at.

The last 5 meetings in this series have seen over 200 combined points. The three meetings this season resulted in 220, 223 and 213 combined points, respectively. Now you can kind of see why I think there is serious value with this OVER tonight. The Suns are 8-1 (89%) to the OVER in home games against Southwest division opponents this season. The average combined score in these games is 224.7 PPG. Bet the OVER.

20* Jazz/Lakers Game 1 No-Brainer on L.A. Lakers -7

The Lakers have won 13 straight home meetings with the Jazz and they are 9-4 ATS in the process.  This is a terrible match-up for Utah without Mehmet Okur and with Andrei Kirilenko sidelined for the first few games at least.  Utah matched up well with Denver because they had the advantage in the paint with Boozer and Millsap.  Both players used their quickness to get easy buckets.  That won't happen against the Lakers, who can throw three players at the Jazz that are all 6-11 or taller.  They include Gasol, Bynum and Odom.  So if Boozer of Millsap gets by one of these players, there's always another 7-footer ready to clean up inside.

This play also falls under a system that is 67-29 (70%) over the last 5 seasons.  It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).  Take the Lakers in Game 1.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 191.5

The Cavs and Celtics know each other like the back of their hands.  This favors a defensive battle not only in Game 1, but throughout this series.  The Celtics are 16-5 to the UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.  The average combined score in these games is 181.1 PPG.

This play also falls under a system that is 46-21 (69%) to the UNDER since 1996.  It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.  Roll with the UNDER in Game 1.

20* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 189.5

In what is a huge Game 6 for both teams, defense will reign supreme tonight.  Both of these young teams will come out tight with what's at stake which will lead to poor offense, but the defensive effort will be there for both clubs.  I fully expect this game to be played similar to Game 5 where Milwaukee won 91-87 for 178 combined points.

This play falls under a system that is 46-19 (71%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons.  It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in April games.  Bet the UNDER.

25* NBA Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -1

The Portland Trail Blazers responded with a 96-87 win in Game 4 to avoid going down 3-1. In another spot of adversity, the Blazers will use their home-court advantage tonight in Game 6 to send this to a Game 7. Brandon Roy is expected to start and this will allow him to get in a much better rhythm. The Phoenix Suns lack the killer instinct it takes to go out and close out Portland, knowing that they have a Game 7 at home in their back pocket.

The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, while the favorite is 17-7-2 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Blazers have won 4 of their last 5 home meetings with Phoenix. Portland is 8-1 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The Blazers are 30-13 ATS after playing a road game this season. Portland is 8-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders this season. The Blazers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Blazers are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet Portland as my Opening Round G.O.T.Y.!

20* Bucks/Hawks NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on Atlanta -9

The Hawks simply do not lose to the Bucks at home. Over the last 3 seasons, the Hawks are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS when playing Milwaukee at home. That includes back-to-back double-digits wins in this series. It's amazing how they continue to fail to play as a team on the road, but at home this squad works together as well as any team in the league. They have fed off their home crowd all season long, posting 36-7 SU & 27-16 ATS record in Atlanta.

Atlanta is 13-3 (81%) ATS in home games after a game with 15 or less assists over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are winning by 11.1 PPG in these spots. They played too much 1-on-1 baskeball in Milwaukee, but they'll get back to sharing the rock tonight. Bet Atlanta

20* Heat/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Miami +7

The Heat proved that they aren't giving up in this series with a big Game 4 victory. Dwyane Wade is always at his best with his back against the wall in these playoffs. When he won a championship, his team fell in a 2-0 hole to the Mavs before going on to win 4 straight games. I have no doubt that he still thinks Miami can come back and win this series, and they will not fold in Game 5. Boston is just 14-28 ATS in all home games this season and once again they are being overvalued Tuesday.

This play falls under a system that is 46-20 (70%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games. This is an inflated line tonight. Take Miami.

25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers/Suns OVER 202

Great value with the OVER in this Game 5 match-up between the Suns and Blazers. Phoenix gets to play at their pace at home, while the Blazers get to play at their pace at home as well. That's just how it has worked thus far in this series and with Phoenix playing at home in Game 5 this will be a much higher-scoring affair. Off a loss in Game 4 where the play was slowed to a snail's pace, look for the Suns to learn from it and come out guns-a-blazing tonight in Game 5.

Phoenix is 21-9 to the OVER in home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Better yet, the Suns are 22-6 (79%) to the OVER in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The average score in these games is Phoenix 114.3 and their opponents 106.5 for better than 220 combined points/game. When ever this team hits the road for a couple games and returns home, they always bring a ton of energy to the floor as they feed off of their home fans. It doesn't necessarily help their defense, but it certainly helps their offense as they push the pace. Roll with the OVER in Game 5.

20* Cavs/Bulls NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Chicago +6

Chicago is showing excellent value Sunday as a big home dog to the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss, so they really haven't been resilient bouncing back from losses recently. The Cavs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

This play also falls under a system that is 41-14 (75%) since 1996. It tells us to be on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's). Take the Bulls.

15* BAILOUT on Los Angeles Lakers +2

The Lakers have now lost 5 straight Game 3's in their last 5 series. So it should come as no surprise that they lost a game to the Thunder, and there's no question they come out with an edge tonight and get after it more than they did in Game 3. It's just their nature to relax in those games as they usually find themselves up 2-0. L.A. settled for 31 three-point attempts in that Game 3 loss and really played out of character. Look for them to attack the paint and to get Gasol, Bynum and Odom more involved inside. Kobe will also be looking to get to the rim tonight instead of settling for outside jumpers.

The Lakers are 33-19 ATS as an underdog of the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are just 2-10 ATS in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Finally, L.A. is 14-2 SU in their last 16 meetings with the Thunder. Take the Lakers.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Bobcats UNDER 184.5

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Charlotte. The UNDER is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings overall. Defensive effort will be at a max in this all-important Game 3 tonight. These teams combined to score 169 points in Game 3 and a similar final combined score will result Saturday.

The Magic are 20-11 to the UNDER as a road favorite this season. Charlotte is 13-5 to the UNDER after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Bobcats last 12 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 28-13-2 in Magic last 43 games as a favorite. Roll with the UNDER in Game 3.

20* Nuggets/Jazz Game 3 No-Brainer on Denver +2

Denver just gave away their game against Utah in Game 2. They'll come back and steal Game 3 in Salt Lake City tonight. The Jazz are overmatched due to injuries, with Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko both down. Denver took the Jazz lightly because of these injuries, but they will not make the same mistake again. Look for the Nuggets' best effort of the series in Game 3 as they know they now have to win a game in Utah to extend this series.

Denver is 32-14 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 14-2 ATS after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Denver won in Utah earlier this year by a final of 105-95. After a poor defensive performance in Game 3, they'll lock it down on this end of the floor. Denver will also look to go inside to take advantage of the Jazz lack of big men instead of settling for so many jump shots. They'll be in attack mode all game, which is precisely what they need to do to win Game 3. Take the Nuggets.

25* Western Conference Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks +3.5

The Mavs completely failed to show up for Game 2. They are frustrated over losing home court, and they'll bring their best effort to the floor tonight in San Antonio to re-gain it. Dallas is 14-3 ATS in road games off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 8.2 PPG. This has been one of the most resilient teams in the league when going on the road following and upset loss.

Dallas is 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with San Antonio. It was a very rare loss for the Mavs against the Spurs in Game 2, and it won't happen again in Game 3. The Spurs just don't have the depth to match up with the Mavs, and they have nobody to guard Dirk Nowitzki. The Mavs' big man was passive in Game 2, but he'll come back and assert himself in Game 3 similar to his 36-point performance in Game 1. Dallas gets the job done tonight. Bet the Mavs in Game 3.

20* NBA Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Suns/Blazers OVER 204.5

6 of the last 7 meetings in this series have seen 205 or more combined points. The Suns continue pushing the tempo tonight as they know that playing at a fast pace is their best chance to win. The OVER is 10-3 in the last 13 meeetings in Portland. The fact that these teams typically play in high-scoring games gives us plenty of value on the OVER here tonight with a total of less than 205.

Phoenix is 17-5 to the OVER in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 11-3 to the OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. The OVER is 14-3 in the Suns' last 17 Thursday night games as well. Look for Phoenix to put up another big number like the 119 they scored in Game 2, and for Portland to stay right with them with a much better offensive effort tonight in the comfort of their home building. Roll with the OVER.

20* Spurs/Mavs NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Dallas -3.5

Dallas just has San Antonio's number, and that won't change in Game 2. The Spurs shot 50% from the field and 86% from the charity stripe in Game 1, and still lost 100-94. They couldn't have played much better, and it's just a sign that they are far past their prime. Duncan, Ginobli and Parker all had spectacular games, but the Spurs just aren't getting any help elsewhere. That's where the advantage goes to the Mavs who are very deep, and they even bring Jason Terry off the bench, a player who would start on almost any other team. The Spurs have no one to guard Dirk Nowitzki, who scored 36 points on just 14 field goal attemps in Game 1. Dallas is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with San Antonio. The Mavs are 6-0 in their last 6 home meetings with the Spurs.

This play also falls under a system that is 22-4 (85%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). The Mavs should be a much heavier favorite tonight. Bet Dallas.

15* BAILOUT on L.A. Lakers -6.5

The Lakers did not put together nearly their best effort in Game 1, and still managed to lead virtually the entire way and win by 8 points. Their defensive effort will be solid once again with Andrew Bynum back in the line-up, but look for the Lakers to be much sharper offensively in Game 2. The Lakers shot just 41% from the floor in Game 1. They will go inside more this game to take advantage of the huge size differential working in their favor with the likes of Gasol, Bynum and Odom in the paint. It will lead to higher percentage shots and easy buckets because the Thunder's biggest weakness is their lack of a post presence.

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. This young Thunder team remains shell-shocked by the atmosphere in L.A. and they won't get over it in time to perform at their best in Game 2. The Lakers are champions, and they will go for the jugular to try and put this young Oklahoma City team away early. They don't want to give them any confidence when this series shifts to OKC. Bet the Lakers at home.

25* NBA #1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics OVER 179

This total has been set way too low due to the nature of the Heat/Celtics Game 1. That game resulted in an 85-76 Boston victory for 161 combined points. With Kevin Garnett serving a 1-game suspension, it changes the entire complexion of this game. The Celtics lose defense, which will allow the Heat to be much more effective on offense without Garnett's presence in the post. But the Celtics can get out and run more now that they don't have to go through Garnett, and this will be a much faster-paced contest as a result in Game 2.

This play also falls under a system that is 34-7 (83%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less. This system is 10-2 over the last 3 seasons and 19-4 over the last 5 years. The value is clearly with the OVER in this game after the nature of Game 1, a much lower-scoring game than the odds makers anticipated. This one will have gone OVER the number with nearly 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter in my estimation. Take the OVER.

20* NBA on TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 212

The Jazz and Nuggets have been high-scoring machines when they get together. Now, with Mehmet Okur out, the Jazz are forced to go with an even small line-up. This will help them get up and down faster offensively and will produce more points, but they aren't going to be able to guard the Nuggets in the post without Okur. The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, with a combined score of 218 or more points in the five OVERS. They combined for 239 points in Game 1 so there is still some serious value with this OVER tonight.

This play also falls under a system that is 25-6 (81%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. Roll with the OVER in Game 2.

15* on Chicago Bulls +11

The Bulls settled down in the second half of Game 1 against Cleveland and actually made a game out of it, eventually losing by 13 points. Chicago now has the confidence to know that they can play with the Cavaliers when they look at their effort in the second half. They dug themselves a huge hole early and didn't show up in the first quarter, so don't expect the Bulls to make that same mistake again. The Bulls are 13-5 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Chicago is 10-2 ATS after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists this season. Look for Chicago to move the ball much better tonight to take some of the pressure of of Derek Rose, who is fully capable of leading this team to victory.

This play also falls under a system that is 109-57 (66%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (CHICAGO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, with a losing record. Take Chicago in Game 2.

25* NBA Opening Round No-Brainer of the Year on Phoenix Suns -8

The Suns are an absolute No-Brainer Sunday as they host the Brandon Roy-less Portland Trail Blazers. Not only is Phoenix the hottest team in the Western Conference since the All-Star break, but not Portland has to try and be competitive without their superstar. It's simply not going to happen. Portland now lacks a pure scorer that can get easy buckets when plays break down. This is going to be a lopsided blowout from start to finish as the Suns continue playing stellar basketball.

Phoenix is 16-3 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Suns are also 16-3 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season this season. The Suns are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. A Double-digit blowout is in session. Take the Suns.

20* NBA Saturday No Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4

The Celtics should be a much heavier favorite at home against the Miami Heat Saturday. Yes, the Celtics have not been playing their best basketball, but this is still a 50-game winner and they will certainly step up their game for the playoffs. Boston is finally healthy and ready to make another run, starting with Game 1 Saturday. Miami has won 12 of their last 13 games, but only 2 of those victories came against teams with a winning record.

Boston is 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS against Miami over the last 3 seasons, including a 5-0 home mark when facing the Heat. This is a very tough match-up for Miami because the Celtics know how to stop the Heat. The key is making other players beat them besides Dwayne Wade, and that's precisely what they will do in this series. The Favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Boston.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Hornets +7.5

Good value here with the Hornets. New Orleans will be fired up to play the Jazz, a playoff team in the Western Conference. Utah is 2-11 ATS in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. The Jazz are 6-19 ATS in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Utah is 7-20 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

New Orleans is 28-14 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are looking for some payback here after losing to the Jazz by 20 points on the road last meeting. Take the Hornets.

25* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 203.5

The Lakers and Nuggets have combined to score 200 or more points in 7 of their last 10 meetings overall. Denver is 15-4 OVER in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 22-9 OVER in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

These teams typically play in high-scoring affairs. This is a very low total and the clear value in this game is with the OVER. Bet the OVER Thursday.

20* Wednesday NBA on ESPN No-Brainer on San Antonio Spurs +7

The Spurs are simply catching too many points tonight. San Antonio is 16-5 SU & 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games while beating the likes of Boston, Orlando and the L.A. Lakers. San Antonio knows they have a great chance to gain more ground in the Western Conference with upcoming games against the Suns, Nuggets and Mavs. They will try and take full advantage as they continue playing their best basketball of the season. I cannot see the Suns running away with this game like this line would indicate. The Spurs have won 4 of the last 5 in this series and they match-up very well with Phoenix.

The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference foes. San Antonio is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Suns are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Phoenix had been on a pretty good run before losing to the Bucks. This long break will only hurt the Suns. The underdog is also 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take San Antonio.

25* NBA No Doubt Rout of the Year on Memphis Grizzlies -4

The home team has won 7 of the last 8 in this series between the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets, winning by 10 or more points each time. So home-court advantage has certainly been huge here, resulting in double-digits blowouts 7 out of 8 times. Houston is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are battling through injuries right now that they are just not able to overcome. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. This is a very generous line as the Grizzlies are asked to lay a small number against the Rockets Tuesday.

This play also falls under a system that is 53-22 (71%) since 1996. It tells us to play against any team (HOUSTON) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games. Houston has quit playing defense, giving up 119, 114 and 133 points in their last 3 games, respectively. Memphis has scored 102 or more points in 6 of their last 7 games overall. Bet the Grizzlies.

15* Spurs/Lakers NBA on ABC ANNIHILATOR on L.A. Lakers -5

The Lakers have had the Spurs' number, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with San Antonio. The Lakers' size in the middle continues giving San Antonio fits, and the Spurs also don't have an answer for Kobe Bryant defensively with Bruce Bowen no longer around. The Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with San Antonio overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings.

This play also falls under a system that is 63-26 (71%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). The Spurs are getting way too much respect from the odds makers tonight with this small spread. Roll with the Lakers.

20* NBA Saturday Motivational Mismatch on Portland Trail Blazers -6

The Blazers are trying desperately to avoid finishing in 8th place in the Western Conference standings, because they certainly do not want to play the Lakers in the first round. Portland is also coming off a 17-point loss at Denver on Thursday night, so they will be highly motivated Saturday when they travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings. The Blazers have still one 9 of their last 11 games overall, with their only losses coming against the Suns and Nuggets on the road, two of the top teams in the West. Sacramento has little to play for at the end of the season, so it's hard for them to be motivated to come to play each night. The Kings are also trying to get their reserves more playing time to give them more of a look heading into next season, putting Sacramento at a disadvantage talent-wise. The Kings have lost 6 straight games, all by 7 points or more.

This play also falls under a system that is 37-9 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. These good teams always tend to bounce back in a big way following an ugly loss, and that's what I expert Portland to do Saturday. Roll with the Blazers.

20* NBA Friday No Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -8.5

The Suns are simply rolling right now and I'll continue riding them tonight against a Detroit Pistons' team that has packed it in. Phoenix is 9-0 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Meanwhile, Detroit is 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games overall, losing by double-digits six times. Phoenix has more to play for and they will continue dominating tonight. Detroit is giving several below-average players playing time to see what they can do for them heading into next season.

This play also falls under a system that is 51-16 (76%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, second half of the season. The Suns have scored 110 or more points in 8 of their last 9 games, and Detroit will have a hard time putting up 100 in this one as they've scored 81 and 83 points in 2 of their last 3 home games. Take the Suns.

15* on Bulls/Wizards UNDER 191

Look for the Bulls to amp up their defense tonight against the Washington Wizards, team that really struggles to score the basketball but also a team that does play solid defense. Washington has scored 99 or less points in 18 straight games. Worse yet, the Wizards have scored 89 or less points in 12 of those 18 points. With what's at stake for Chicago as they try to make one final push for a playoff spot, I see the Bulls holding the Wizards to under 90 in this one as well. The Wizards are 22-6 to the UNDER in the second half of the season this season.

This play also falls under a system that is 55-23 (71%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off an upset win as an underdog, in April games. Roll with the UNDER.

20* NBA on TNT Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Nuggets OVER 199

With a total set of less than 200 points, there is some serious value here with the OVER. The last two meetings in this series saw 203 and 224 combined points, respectively. The only meeting in Denver this season saw the 224 combined points with a 118-106 victory by the Nuggets. Portland likes to slow it down a little, while Denver likes to push the tempo. With the Nuggets playing at home, they will control the tempo and speed the game up which will result in both teams scoring more than 100 points again. The OVER is 18-7 in the last 25 meetings in Denver, so they have been able to push the tempo when hosting the Blazers.

Denver is 27-13 OVER in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The average combined score in these games is 212.6 PPG. Portland is 14-6 to the OVER as a road underdog this season. The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The OVER is 7-2 in the Blazers' last 9 road games. Take the OVER.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Grizzlies OVER 203

We have two teams here that are averaging more than 100 PPG and two that are also giving up 100 PPG, so there is some value with this OVER. Dallas is scoring 110 PPG in their last 2 games while the Grizzlies are scoring 109.5 PPG over their last 4 contests. Dallas is a superb 10-1 OVER after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. The Mavs are 14-4 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

This play also falls under a system that is 35-10 (78%) to the OVER through the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, vs. division opponents. Roll with the OVER.

15* on Detroit Pistons +7

The Detroit Pistons have plenty of reason to get motivated for this game Wednesday. Detroit scored 42 points after the first quarter in a 92-65 loss to the Miami Heat in their last meeting back on January 29th. "After a performance like (that), there's just a loss of words," guard Ben Gordon said following that defeat, one of the Pistons' nine losses by at least 20 since Dec. 23. "I don't know why we're not able to go out there and at least give 100 percent effort, regardless of whatever else happens." Look for the Pistons to get after it tonight after one of their worst losses of the season to the Heat last meeting.

This play also falls under a system that is 49-19 (72%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (DETROIT) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread. Miami is getting too much respect here. Bet the Pistons.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -3

The Celtics have had 2 days' rest to steam over their loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, falling 73-94 at home as a 3.5-point favorite. Boston is going to come out tonight with a fire lit up their asses, and they'll certainly be the fresher team as the Oklahoma City Thunder just played last night in Philadelphia. The Celtics, who defeated the Thunder 105-87 on the road Dec. 4, have won six straight meetings in this series - outscoring the Oklahoma City franchise by an average of 17.0 points in that span. The Celtics have also won nine of the last 10 matchups between these clubs in Boston. Seven Celtics scored in double figures in the December meeting, led by Garnett's 23 and Pierce's 21.

This play falls under a system that is 27-6 (82%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (BOSTON) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. Take the Celtics.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on L.A. Clippers +11

The Milwaukee Bucks should not be a double-digit favorite against anyone in this league. They went on a huge run in February and early March, but as a result they are getting too much respect from the betting public and the odds makers alike. This team has played 4 straight home games, beating Atlanta by 3 and beating Memphis by 5 in overtime. They lost to the 76ers by 15 and lost to the Heat by 13. The Bucks are not 11 points better than the Clippers here. Milwaukee is 12-31 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1996. The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central. The Clippers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. Eastern Conference foes.

This play also falls under a system that is 49-18 (73%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Bet the Clippers

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets +5.5

The Denver Nuggets have owned the Dallas Mavericks in this head-to-head series. Denver trails the Mavericks by a half-game in the Western Conference standings, so they really want this game tonight. The Nuggets are 11-3 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Dallas overall, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road meetings. This is the final game on a 5-game road trip for Denver, and they've gone 1-3 through their first four. There's no question this is a hungry Nuggets' team right now after they way they've played of late.

Dallas has not beaten a team with a winning record since March 1st. The Mavs are 7-27 ATS as a home favorite this season. Dallas is 0-9 ATS versus excellent foul drawing teams - attempting >=30 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Denver is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Bet the Nuggets.

15* on Golden State Warriors +7

The Clippers should not be this heavily favored against any team in the league. They especially shouldn't against Golden State as the Warriors are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with L.A. The Clippers are 4-14 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. Golden State always seems to get run out of the building by these teams, and they did the last time they met up with the Warriors, losing by a final of 102-132.

This play also falls under a system that is 26-4 (87%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. After a blowout loss to Dallas yesterday, this line has been inflated. Take the Warriors showing serious line value.

15* on L.A. Lakers -6

The Lakers were embarrassed last night against the Thunder, and I fully expect them to take it out on the Houston Rockets Saturday. L.A. lost to the Thunder 75-91 after falling behind by 19 at the half. Houston has some injury concerns that will prevent them from even being competitive tonight. Shane Battier is out until early April, and he is always the one that guards Kobe Bryant and does as good of a job as anyone in the league against Kobe. Kevin Martin is questionable with a shoulder injury tonight as well, and Jared Jeffries is doubtful.

This plays falls under a system that is 35-9 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. Bet the Lakers.

15* on Phoenix Suns -10

Phoenix is right in the hunt to earn the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. They've got back into the race by winning 5 straight games, and 13 of their last 16 overall. The Suns have had 3 days' rest since their last game and will be ready to go at home tonight as they take on the lowly New York Knicks. This is a major revenge game for Phoenix, who suffered one of their worst losses of the season in New York earlier this year. The Knicks are playing a bunch of guys that they wouldn't normally play right now, giving them a look for next season. The talent differential is overwhelmingly in the Suns' favor in this one with the players that will be on the floor.

This play also falls under a system that is 25-5 (83.3%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. Another system backing the Suns tonight is 36-17 (68%) over the last 5 years. It tells us to bet on favorites (PHOENIX) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite, playing with 3 or more days rest. Bet the Suns.

15* on Nuggets/Raptors UNDER 217

We have two hungry teams here tonight, both coming off losses. Denver has actually lost 3 straight games, their last one in New York against the Knicks. Toronto was embarrassed by Utah 87-113 at home in their last outing. Both teams are coming off poor defensive efforts, so look for each to amp it up on this end of the floor to try and get a victory. The numbers just don't add up here. Denver scores 103.7 PPG and allows 103.6 PPG on the road this season for an average combined score of 107.3 PPG. Toronto scores 104.0 PPG at home and allows 102.8 PPG for an average of 106.8 PPG. So these teams are averaging roughtly 207 PPG with their home/away numbers, giving us about 10 points of value with this UNDER.

This play also falls under a system that is 42-10 (81%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Roll with the UNDER.

20* NBA on TNT No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1

This is the stretch run for the Bulls and they are starting to gain some momentum as they make their push for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Derek Rose and Joakim Noah returned to the line-up two games ago, and the Bulls went on to beat both the 76ers and Rockets by double-digits for a nice 2-0 run. Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series between the Heat and Bulls. The home team has won 5 straight and 8 of the last 9 in this head-to-head series.

Miami tends to play down to their competition as the Heat are just 2-10 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. Chicago is a steaky team, as the Bulls are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win. The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Roll with Chicago in a must-win game at home.

15* on Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5

Charlotte played an overtime thriller last night in Washington, eventually winning in the extra session. That makes this a tough spot for the Bobcats playing their second of a back-to-back. Minnesota's last two games have shown that they have not quit, giving playing contenders such as the Lakers and Raptors all they could handle before eventually losing by single-digits. The Timberwolves are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bobcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Charlotte is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Bobcats are much better in the role of the underdog than in the role of the favorite, and they are certainly being overvalued here.

This play also falls under a system that is 79-44 (64%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after 8 or more consecutive losses. Minnesota has been on a cold streak, but you can tell this team hasn't quit because of their efforts the past two games. Take the Timberwolves.

20* Nuggets/Celtics NBA on ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -4

This is a very tough spot for the Nuggets. This is their second of a back-to-back after losing 114-119 at the New York Knicks last night. The Celtics clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight so they'll certainly be wanting to get that out of the way. Denver is a sub-.500 team on the road this season and they are a tired team right now. Denver is 6-16 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. Meanwhile, Boston is 34-16 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. Denver is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games and they are really missing the guidance of head coach George Karl, who will be sidelined until April. Boston is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 homes games.

This play also falls under a system that is 68-31 (69%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Take the Celtics.

15* on Detroit Pistons -4

Detroit has lost 5 straight games to Indiana, granted four of them have come on the road. Both of these teams are finding it hard to get motivated to play these meaningless games at the end of the season considering neither is going to make the playoffs. So you have to look for motivational edges anywhere you can find them, and there's no question Detroit is going to show up tonight to end this losing streak against the Pacers. The home team is 7-1 SU in the last 8 meetings in this series.

This play falls under a system that is 45-19 (70%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams (DETROIT) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points. Detroit returns the favor at home tonight. Take the Pistons.

15* on Celtics/Jazz UNDER 200

Boston has really stepped it up defensively, holding 8 of their last 11 opponents to 97 points or less. Utah has been hot offensively, but they've played four straight teams that rank near the bottom of most defensive categories (Hornets, Suns, T'Wolves, Wizards). Look for Boston to cool off Utah and slow the pace of this game down. The last 3 meetings in this head-to-head series have all season 191 or less combined points, with a 90-85 final the last time they met up in Utah. So with a total of 200 here, the value is clearly with the UNDER.

This play also falls under a system that is 38-13 (75%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (UTAH) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Both the Celtics and Jazz have each played 9 or more games in the past 14 days, so neither is fresh right now. Bet the UNDER.

15* on Chicago Bulls -2

Derrick Rose is now back in the line-up for Chicago, and wouldn't you know they ended their dreadful skid. With All-Star guard Rose and forward Joakim Noah in the lineup, Chicago (32-37) snapped a 10-game skid with a 98-84 win at Philadelphia on Saturday. After missing four games with a sprained wrist, Rose scored 23 points in 37 minutes as the Bulls won for the first time since beating Portland on Feb. 26 - also the last time they won back-to-back games. This is the stretch run of the season for the Bulls, and they'll be laying it all on the line to make one final push at the 8th and final playoff spot in the East.

This play also falls under a system that is 32-9 (78%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team. Take Chicago.

15* NBA Game of the Night on Golden State Warriors +10

The Warriors got blasted by Phoenix last night, and as a result the books have pushed this line up to double-digits in favor of Memphis. That places the value with the Warriors in a game where there is a great chance it's decided by single-digits. The Warriors are 44-26 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 21-7 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games this season. Memphis is just 2-10 ATS in home games second half of the season this season. Golden State is 19-5 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The fast-paced style Memphis plays sets up for a great match-up for the Warriors, and Golden State is certainly showing some of their best value for the entire season tonight.

This play also falls under a system that is 46-13 (78%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. Take the Warriors.

15* on 76ers/Knicks OVER 207.5

The last meeting between the 76ers and Knicks in New York resulted in a 141-127 Philly victory for 268 combined points. The previous meeting in New York saw 211 combined points as well. This is a very low total set tonight, with the clear value going on the OVER.

This play also falls under a system that is 36-18 (67%) to the OVER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - cold team - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record. These are two teams with nothing to play for, so don't expect either squad to be getting after it defensively. This game is all about the points. Take the OVER.

15* on Atlanta Hawks -4

The home team has won 9 of the last 10 games in this series. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall. Atlanta is 26-7 SU & 20-13 ATS at home this season, scoring 105.7 points/game. Charlotte is just 10-24 on the road this season, scoring 92.3 points/game. There is some serious line value here with Atlanta at home.

Charlotte is 1-9 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. All trends and home/away numbers show me that Atlanta has a very good chance of winning this game by 5 points or more. Take the Hawks.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -14

The Chicago Bulls are in shambles right now. The Bulls are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, losing by double-digits six times and losing all 8 games by at least 7 points. Injuries are starting to pile up over in Chicago as Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose and Luol Deng all missed last night's game in Memphis. Noah and Rose will each be out tonight, and Deng is questionable. This is a bounce-back game for the Mavs, as they suffered their worst loss of the season to the Knicks at home last time out. That setback ended their 13-game winning streak, so this team is still playing superb basketball ever since they made the trade with Washington. Dallas has not played since March 13th, so they've had 3 days' rest to steam over that loss to the Knicks and prepare for the Bulls. Jason Terry is also supposed to return to the line-up tonight.

This play also falls under a system that is 24-3 (89%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams (DALLAS) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. Take Dallas.

15* on Pacers/Cavs OVER 208.5

Cleveland has been scoring points at will lately, putting up 100 or more in 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. They've been forced to play small ball with the loss of Shaq, and as a result they are starting to score more points. The Pacers are 26-12 to the OVER off a home win over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers have given up 112 or more points in 6 of their last 11 games overall. Indiana allows 107.8 points/game on the road this season.

This play also falls under a system that is 65-24 (73%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (INDIANA) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, playing on back-to-back days. This system has gone 6-1 this season. Roll with the OVER.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Charlotte Bobcats -2

The Bobcats are rolling right now. Charlotte is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, beating the likes of the Lakers, Heat and Magic. Indiana has lost 6 of their last 7 games, and the Pacers are just 3-13 in their last 16 games overall. With Charlotte fighting for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, they aren't going to slip up tonight against the Pacers. The Bobcats are 30-13 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons. Charlotte is 11-3 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game this season.

This play also falls under a system that is 29-6 (83%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Bet Charlotte.

20* Pistons/Celtics ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit +9

The Boston Celtics are deflated right now after their 93-104 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers Sunday. This was a close game entering the 4th quarter before Cleveland pulled away. This will be Boston's 5th game in 7 days as they've lost 3 of their last 4 games overall. Playing a back-to-back here makes this a very tough spot for Boston. Detroit has won 2 of their last 3 meetings with Boston, and the Pistons have stayed within 8 points of the Celtics in their last 2 losses to Boston. The Celtics are 5-18 ATS in home games when playing their 5th game in 7 days since 1996. Boston is 8-21 ATS as a home favorite this season.

This play also falls under a system that is 34-9 (79%) since 1996. It tells us to bet against home teams (BOSTON) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%). Take Detroit.

20* Cavs/Celtics NBA on ABC Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 195

These two teams hate each other, and both will really get after it defensively tonight to keep the final score of this contest well UNDER the number. The Celtics have scored 96 or less points in 4 of their last 5 games overall. They've allowed 86 or less in 4 of their last 6 games as well. The Cavs have not scored more than 100 points in 4 straight games, and they've given up 95 or less points in 6 straight contests. The way these teams are playing right now, there is a great chance this one stays UNDER. Not to mention that 14 straight games in this series have seen less than 200 combined points, with 12 of those meetings finishing with 192 or less combined points.

This play also falls under a system that is 61-21 (74%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (BOSTON) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game. This system has gone 5-1 this season. Take the UNDER.

15* on Raptors/Warriors UNDER 230

With a total this high Saturday, there is some serious line value with the UNDER. The Raptors are scoring just 98.4 points/game over their last 5 games while the Warriors are averaging 107.6 points/game over their last 5. The Warriors are 12-2 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game this season. Golden State is 24-12 to the UNDER after a combined score of 215 points or more this season. Toronto is 11-2 to the UNDER versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=48% over the last 3 seasons.

This play also falls under a system that is 41-9 (82%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Roll with the UNDER.

15* on Utah Jazz +1

The Jazz are the perfect team to take down Milwaukee and end the Bucks' ridiculous run. Yes, Milwaukee has won 10 of their last 11 games, but eight of those victories came against teams with losing records. There's no way this team can beat the Cavs, Celtics and Jazz in three straight games. Utah is just as hot as Milwaukee, going 14-4 in their last 18 games overall. They have posted 4 straight victories all by 8 points or more, with three of those wins coming on the road. Utah has finally become a solid road team this season. In fact, the Jazz are 8-2 SU in their last 10 road games overall. Utah is 9-0 ATS after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points this season. The Jazz are 11-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

This play also falls under a system that is 55-20 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. Take the Jazz.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pistons UNDER 191

Washington just played last night in a 6-point loss to the Atlanta Hawks. The Wizards come into this game tired, which will play a big role in this game finishing UNDER the number. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Wizards' last 6 games overall, mainly because they cannot score the basketball. Washington has failed to reach the 100-point mark in six straight games, and they've scored 89 or less points in 5 of their last 6 contests. Washington is 10-0 UNDER in road games off a home loss this season. The Wizards are 20-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

This play also falls under a system that is 51-20 (71.8%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (WASHINGTON) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less. Roll with the UNDER.

15* on Orlando Magic -12.5

The Bulls are without Joakim Noah and Luol Deng tonight, and their injuries are starting to add up. Chicago has lost 5 straight games, including four at home. Three of their five losses have come by double-digits, and Orlando should easily win this game running away tonight against the depleted Bulls. Chicago won't have an answer for Dwight Howard inside without Noah. The Magic have won 6 straight games, with 5 of those wins coming by double-digits. Four of those five wins have come by at least 16 points.

This play falls under a system that is 52-16 (77%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on home favorites (ORLANDO) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). Take the Magic.

15* on Denver Nuggets -7

Minnesota is playing like a team that has packed it in already, because they really have. The T'Wolves are 1-12 SU & 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Denver has picked up their play recently, winning three straight games all by 8 points or more. The Nuggets should cruise to a double-digit victory tonight with ease in Minnesota. Denver has won 5 of their last 6 meetings with the T'Wolves by 9 points or more.

This play also falls under a system that is 43-15 (74%) since 1996. It tells us to bet against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after a game committing 13+ more turnovers than opponents. Minnesota is playing sloppy basketball right now and there chances of hanging with the Nuggets are slim to none tonight. Take Denver.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Chicago Bulls +4.5

The Bulls catching 4.5 points at home tonight is an absolute gift from the odds makers, making this a no-brainer Tuesday. Yes, Chicago has struggled of late, but they are still right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. Chicago has won 3 of their last 4 meetings with Utah, and the home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings. The Bulls are 19-12 at home this season. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.

This play also falls into a system that is 40-12 (77%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games. The value here is overwhelming. Take Chicago.

15* on Mavs/T'Wolves OVER 207

These teams have met twice in 2010, with Minnesota winning 117-108 in Dallas on February 5th for 225 combined points and Dallas winning 112-109 at home on March 3rd for 221 combined points. The Timberwolves have allowed 109 or more points in 4 straight games, while Dallas has allowed 100 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Mavericks have also scored 108 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games as well. So the way these teams are playing right now, there is a very good chance this game finishes well OVER the number.

This play also falls under a 30-8 (79%) OVER System since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - off a home loss by 10 points or more, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record. Go with the OVER.

15* on Wizards/Celtics UNDER 194

Boston has really stepped up their defense, giving up 80 and 86 points in their last 2 games, respectively. Washington cannot find the rim right now, scoring 89, 87 and 74 points in their last 3 respective games. Washington is 19-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Wizards are 19-5 UNDER after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.

This play falls under a system that is 91-47 (66%) to the UNDER over the last 5 years. This system tells us to play the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (WASHINGTON) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off a win against a division rival. Roll with the UNDER.