15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +8

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  It has gone 9-15 SU this season, but a very profitable 14-10 ATS as it has been very competitive in most of its game.  Eight of its losses have come by 8 points or less.

The Magic are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have gone 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering a close road loss to Golden State (97-98), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 15-6 start and a current eight-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying 8 points to the Magic tonight.  All eight wins during their streak have come against teams with losing records.

Orlando split the season series with Atlanta last season while going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS.  Its two losses came by 3 and 10 points, while its two wins came by 17 and 7 points.  So, it actually outscored the Hawks in their four meetings last year.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 15-6 ATS int he last 21 meetings.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Friday nights are 80-42 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with winning records.  The Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets are playing horrible right now amidst all of their trade rumors.  Nets' management has been open about trading Joe Johnson, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez to free up salary cap space.  They just traded Andrei Kirilenko and Jorge Guitierrez to the 76ers for Brandon Davies on Thursday.

Both Johnson and Lopez sat out a 105-80 loss to Chicago on Wednesday.  Both were expected to play coming into that game, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if each just decided to sit amidst the trade rumors.  This is a team in serious disarray right now, and one that cannot be trusted to bring their "A" game to the floor on a nightly basis until these trade rumors blow over.

The Nets have been an absolute embarrassment here of late, which is probably what prompted the rumors.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, with home losses to Atlanta by 23 and Cleveland by 22, as well as that road loss to the Bulls by 25.  So, they have been outscored by a combined 70 points in their last three and by an average of 23.3 points per game.

The 76ers, meanwhile, have shown a lot of fight here of late.  They have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall to make backers a lot of money.  Six of their last nine games have been decided by 8 points or less.  That includes narrow losses to some good teams in Dallas (103-110) and San Antonio (103-109).

This has been a very closely-contested series here of late.  The 76ers are 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Nets as they have played them very tough.  In fact, each of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or less, and by a combined 19 points total.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn.

Brooklyn is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The 76ers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The 76ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

20* Cavs/Thunder TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in what will be a raucous atmosphere for the home team.  This will be just the second home game all season where both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been healthy.

The first went very well as the Thunder dismantled the Bucks 114-101 on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.  I was on them in that game, and I'm on them again here for many of the same reasons.

The Thunder are now at full strength health-wise with Durant and Westbrook back.  Their time away allowed several role players on this team to grow their games, which will only make them stronger as a team going forward.  They have won five of their last six games coming in.

Cleveland is overvalued here due to its eight-game winning streak coming into this game.  This streak followed a 6-7 start.  It has mostly come against a very weak schedule as the wins have come against the Magic, Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, Knicks, Nets and Raptors (twice).  The Thunder are the best team they have played since a home loss to San Antonio on November 19th.

The Cavs are 14-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  OKC is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

Note - I still recommend a play on the Thunder -6.5 with Lebron James out.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5

I really like the mental and physical state of the Orlando Magic coming into this one.  They have had three days' rest since last playing on Saturday and will be well-rested and ready to go.  This extra time has allowed their best player, Nikola Vucevic, to get healthy.

Vucevic has missed the last four games, but he's probably to return tonight.  He and the rest of these players are going to want revenge after losing the first two meetings of the season with the Washington Wizards by a combined 12 points.  They lost 98-105 on the road and 93-98 at home.

Washington, on the other hand, will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team that it has already beaten twice.  That's especially the case with a bigger game against the Clippers on deck.  Plus, the Wizards are the more tired team as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  That includes a double-OT win over Boston (133-132) at home Monday.

Orlando has been playing well of late even without Vucevic.  It has gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It went on the road and beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96), while also suffering a one-point loss at Golden State (97-98), which currently owns the league's best record.

The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

To say it's going to be a rowdy atmosphere in Oklahoma City tonight would be a massive understatement.  The Thunder faithful will be out in full fledge tonight to support Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  This will be the first home game of the season where both of these superstars have suited up.

The Thunder have gone 4-1 in their last four games overall.  Westbrook has played in four of those games, while Durant has played in the last three.  These two have showed little rust.  Wesbrook is averaging 23.7 points, 6.5 assists and 5.3 rebounds, while Durant is averaging 21.7 points.  They'll both only continue to get stronger as the season goes on.

Milwaukee is overvalued at this point in the season due to its surprising 11-11 start.  It has started to show a lot of vulnerability in its last five games as the schedule has ramped up.  It has lost four of its last five games with its only win coming against Miami.  It was beaten handily at Dallas 102-125 on Sunday, and a similar beat down can be expected at the hands of the Thunder tonight.

OKC is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Milwaukee in which both Durant has played.  It has won by 16, 13, 10 and 20 points in those four games for an average margin of victory of 14.8 points per game.  Three of those four wins came on the road, with the 16-point victory coming at home.

The Thunder are 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive underdogs this season.  Oklahoma City is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 trips to Oklahoma City.  Roll with the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +9

This is a home-and-home situation tonight between the Celtics and Wizards.  I backed the Celtics are 4-point underdogs with success yesterday as they beat the Wizards 101-93 at home.

I know that the Wizards will be out for revenge tonight in this back-to-back situation, but how many points is revenge worth?  I don't believe it's worth as many points as the oddsmakers have put into this spread.  Asking the Wizards to win by double-digits to cover the spread is asking too much.

That's especially the case with the way the Celtics are playing right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Detroit (109-102), LA Lakers (113-96) and Washington (101-93).  I believe the Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the league.

Boston has played a pretty brutal schedule during its 7-11 start and has several close losses against playoff teams along the way.  Seven of its 11 losses have come by 7 points or less, including road losses to Dallas (113-118) and Atlanta (105-109), as well as home losses to Toronto (107-110), Cleveland (121-122), Phoenix (114-118), Portland (88-94) and Chicago (102-109).

Washington, on the other hand, is way overvalued do to its 13-6 start to the season.  Its schedule has been much easier.  Its 13 wins have come against Orlando (twice), Milwaukee (twice), New York, Indiana (twice), Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, Miami, LA Lakers and Denver.  It only has one win against a team (Cleveland) that currently has a winning record.

The Celtics are 11-2 ATS in road games against good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots over the last two seasons.  Boston is 15-5 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three years.  The Celtics are 13-4 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers PK

The Indiana Pacers are showing excellent value tonight as a pick 'em against the Atlanta Hawks.  This team has done a great job of staying competitive despite all of the injuries early in the season, and they are finally getting healthy now.

David West recently returned from injury to give the lineup a big boost.  The Pacers come in undervalued due to having lost four in a row, but those four all came on the road against currently playoff contenders Cleveland, Phoenix, Portland and Sacramento.  Add road games at Dallas and San Antonio, and this has been a brutal stretch over the past seven games.

Atlanta comes in overvalued due to its current six-game winning streak.  Its schedule has been much easier during this stretch, and it has done most of its damage at home this season.  It is 9-2 at home compared to just 4-4 on the road.

The Hawks are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the most difficult situations in the NBA.  The Pacers, meanwhile, will be well-rested and ready to go since they come in on two days' rest.  They'll be highly motivated to put an end to this four-game losing streak as well.

Plays against road underdogs (ATLANTA) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 85 points or less two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  Indiana is 8-0 ATS following a non-conference game this season.  The Pacers are 52-32 ATS in their last 84 games following a loss, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a defeat.  Take the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics +4

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now due to their 6-11 start.  I have no doubt this team is better than its record would indicate as it has played several of the top teams in the NBA very close all year.

Its 11 losses have comes to Houston, Dallas (by 5), Toronto (by 3), OKC, Cleveland (by 1) Phoenix (by 4), Memphis, Portland (by 6), Chicago (by 7), San Antonio and Atlanta (by 4).  All those close losses show that they can play with anyone.

Boston has finally been rewarded with a couple wins in a row for its solid play.  It beat Detroit 109-102 and followed that up with a 113-96 beat down of the Lakers last time out.  I look for it to extend its winning streak to three games tonight.

Washington (13-5) is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA right now due to its record.  It has simply benefited from playing 11 home games compared to 7 road games.  It is just 4-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by 2.4 points per game away from home.  Its four road wins have come against Orlando, New York, Indiana and Milwaukee, four of the worst teams in the NBA.

Plays on underdogs (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 99-54 (64.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Celtics are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are playing very well right now having one three of their last four games with all three victories coming on the road.  The only loss was a 129-132 (2 OT) setback at home to one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Dallas Mavericks. 

This solid play by the Bulls has coincided with a healthy return of Derrick Rose.  The former MVP has averaged 16.2 points and 5.1 assists per game this season and continues to get better with each game.  Pau Gasol (19.9 ppg, 11.4 rpg) has proven to be a huge addition this year.  The Bulls will be amped up to play the team with the best record in the NBA in front of a raucous home crowd Saturday night.

While the Warriors have the best record in the NBA, I certainly do not believe they are the best team.  They have simply benefited from playing a very easy schedule.  They come in way overvalued due to their 11-game winning streak, which comes to an end tonight.

A closer look at this streak shows that it has come against cake opponents.  The 11 wins have come against the Nets (8-10), Bobcats (5-15) twice, Lakers (5-15), Jazz (5-15), Thunder (6-13), Heat (9-10), Magic (8-14) twice, Pistons (3-15) and Pelicans (8-9).  All 11 wins have come against teams with losing records who have a combined 57-112 (33.7%) record in 2014.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 straight up in 10 meetings since 2009.  Chicago is 5-0 straight up in its last five home meetings with Golden State.  It has won those five games by an average of 18.6 points per game.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Boston Celtics get the nod Friday as small 3.5-point home favorites against the hapless Los Angeles Lakers.  I look for them to roll to victory tonight to easily get the win and cover.

Boston (5-11) has been better than its record would suggest, but it has simply fallen victim of a very tough schedule to this point.  Its 11 losses have come to Houston, Dallas, Toronto, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Phoenix, Memphis, Portland, Chicago, San Antonio and Atlanta.  All but one of those teams has a winning record.

Even in those 11 losses, the Celtics have been mostly competitive with a chance to win almost all of them.  Seven of the 11 losses have come by 7 points or less, including five by 5 points or fewer.  The Celtics have taken care of teams they are supposed to beat like the Lakers.

Los Angeles hasn't been all that competitive in its 5-14 start.  Seven of its 14 losses have come by double-digits, including a 95-11 road loss to Washington on Wednesday.  The Lakers are giving up 111.1 points per game this season and getting outscored by 7.4 points per game.  They are giving up 112.2 points per game on the road and getting outscored by 9.3 points per game away from home.

The home team has won four of the last five meetings between these squads.  Los Angeles is 20-42 ATS in its last 62 games after covering two of its last three ATS coming in.  The Lakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Friday games.  Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +4.5

The Denver Nuggets are playing as well as almost anyone coming into this game with the Washington Wizards.  I believe there is a ton of value in backing them as 4.5-point underdogs here in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

Denver has gone 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  That includes road wins over the Cavaliers (106-97), Lakers (101-94) and Jazz (103-101), as well as home wins over OKC (107-100), New Orleans (117-97), Chicago (114-109) and Phoenix (122-97).  Its only losses came at Phoenix (112-120) and at home against Portland (103-105).

The Nuggets have now scored 101 or more points in each of their last nine games overall as their offense is hitting on all cylinders. In fact, dating back further, they have scored at least 100 points in 15 of their last 16 games.

Washington comes in overvalued here after having won three in a row.  It is not at full strength right now, either.  Both Paul Pierce and Nene are questionable to play tonight with injuries, while Martell Webster remains out.

Denver has won six of its last eight meetings with Washington, including both meetings last year.  Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Nuggets are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Denver is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Wizards are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +8.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now due to their mediocre 8-8 start, while the Golden State Warriors are one of the most overrated teams due to their 15-2 start.  This combination has created some great line value for us tonight to pounce on the Pelicans as 8.5-point underdogs.

Golden State has won 10 straight games coming in, and now it has a huge target on its back.  It has created expectations for itself from oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to tonight, and that started to show last game.  The Warriors only beat the Magic 98-97 as 14.5-point home favorites Tuesday night.

A closer look at this winning streak shows that it has more to do with a lack of competitions than anything.  Indeed, the 10 wins have come against the likes of the Nets, Hornets (twice), Lakers, Jazz, Thunder, Heat, Magic (twice) and Pistons.  All of those teams are .500 or worse with nine of those games coming against teams with losing records.  That's no impressive at all in my book.

What was impressive to me was New Orleans' 112-104 win over Oklahoma City on Monday night.  Both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook played for the Thunder, and played well, too.  The Pelicans had lost three straight to quality teams coming into that game and showed some resolve and what they were capable of.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright tonight, let alone cover the 8.5-point spread.  This is one of the most talented teams in the NBA.

Plays on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 92-45 (67.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The road team is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Cavs/Knicks NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +8

Yes, the New York Knicks are 4-15 this season and have really stunk up the joint for the most part.  However, this team isn't nearly as bad as its record would indicate, but it is undervalued at this point because of that poor record.  We're getting excellent value on the Knicks at home Thursday night.

The Knicks have lost five straight coming into this game, but easily could have won four of those, and they were all against good teams.  They only lost by 5 at Houston (86-91), by 7 at Dallas (102-109), by 7 to Miami (79-86), and by 5 to Brooklyn (93-98) during this stretch.  They aren't going to lost by 8 or more to Cleveland tonight.

Conversely, the Cavaliers come into this game overvalued because they have won four straight games coming in.  Well, all four of those came at home and against some suspect competition.  They beat Orlando, Washington, Indiana and Milwaukee, including just a 3-point win over the Bucks (111-108) last time out.  They don't just magically have everything figured out now after their 6-7 start.

The Cavaliers have not played well at all on the road this season.  They are actually getting outscored by an average of 3.0 points per game away from home, where they have played little to no defense.  They are giving up 104.0 points per game on 49.3% shooting in road games.

While the Knicks are just 3-7 at home, they are only getting outscored by 3.4 points per game.  They are playing better defense at home than on the road.  They are only allowing 94.5 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home. 

I also like the fact that Jose Calderon recently returned to the lineup to give the offense a major boost, and that J.R. Smith is expected to return tonight as well.  The Knicks did beat the Cavaliers 95-90 on the road back in the opener, and they are fully capable of pulling off the upset again tonight, let alone staying within 8 points.

The Knicks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Thursday games.  New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SPECIAL on Utah Jazz +4

This play is more of a fade of the Toronto Raptors than a play on the Utah Jazz, who obviously haven't been great this season at 5-13.  The Raptors are just in a really tough spot here and I don't see them performing well because of it.

Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 8th game in 13 days.  That includes a double-overtime loss to the Lakers on Sunday as well as a 117-109 win at Sacramento last night against a Kings team that was playing without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins.

The Raptors are already short-handed right now as they are without their second-leading scorer in DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).  They didn't do well without him against the Lakers, and they were fortunate to win last night against the Kings, who again were without Cousins.  The longer they go without him, the tougher it's going to be.  I believe it catches up with them tonight, as it did against the Lakers.

Utah comes in way undervalued due to its current six-game losing streak.  It has played a gauntlet of a schedule during this skid with losses to the Warriors, Pelicans, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers and Nuggets, who are all playoff contenders.  This will be only the 3rd game in 7 days for the Jazz, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight to try and put and end to this skid.

The Jazz are 53-33 ATS in their last 86 home games off a loss to a division rival.  Utah is 151-117 ATS in its last 268 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Jazz are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing on one days' rest.  Toronto is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 meetings with the Jazz, including 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Salt Lake City.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +9

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as a big home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  The Nets did play last night in a 98-93 victory over the Knicks, but it's a short trip back home, which will lessen the second of a back-to-back factor.

Plus, this will still only be Brooklyn's 3rd game the past 7 days and 4th game in the past 11 days, so that will also soften the blow from being a back-to-back situation.  Add to that the fact that the Nets will be out for revenge from an 87-99 loss to Spurs on the road on November 22nd, and we have a really solid play here.

You also have to consider that the 87-99 loss to the Spurs was a tough situation for the Nets as they were playing the second of a back-to-back after winning in Oklahoma City the previous night.  It was also their 7th game in an 11-day span, so they were dead tired for that contest.

San Antonio is simply way overvalued here.  This is a team that is coming off a 109-103 win at Philadelphia last time out, and it is overvalued due to winning eight straight games coming in.  Asking it to go on the road and win by double-digits against a quality Brooklyn team to beat us is asking too much.

The home team has won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series, including a 103-89 victory for the Nets at home last year.  Brooklyn is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games when revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5

Both the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics have been struggling this season, but the Pistons have been worse.  They are just 3-15 on the year against a softer schedule than the Celtics, who are 4-11 on the season.

Yes, Boston has lost seven of its last eight games overall, but a closer look at the opponents tells the story.  Its seven losses have come to Cleveland (121-122), Phoenix (114-118), Memphis (100-117), Portland (88-94), Chicago (102-109), San Antonio (89-111) and Atlanta (105-109).  If that's not a gauntlet, I don't know what is.  Plus, the Celtics played most of those playoff contenders right down to the wire.

Detroit has lost nine straight coming in.  That includes home losses to Orlando (93-107), Milwaukee (88-104) and the LA Lakers (96-106), as well as a road loss to the Bucks (86-98).  As you can see, it has lost by double-digits to some really bad teams during this streak, so its problems have a lot more to do with being terrible than the schedule.  The following comments tell the story.

"Offensively, we just continue to be awful," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "We're really messed up right now as a team. ... We have a lot of dilemmas, a lot of guys feeling pressure, but we're really not right mentally right now. That's got to change before anything else does."

Detroit is 12-30 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 1-8 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Detroit is 3-12 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 1-7 on the road this year, getting outscored by 6.6 points per game. 

Detroit is 0-8 ATS in its last eight vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The Pistons are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. the East.  Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on 0 days' rest.  Detroit is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Charlotte Hornets +4.5

The Chicago Bulls are going to be a very tired bunch tonight as they take on the Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing to Dallas 129-132 in double-overtime last night.  I simply do not believe they'll have much left in the tank.

Charlotte, on the other hand, comes into this game well-rested and ready to go.  It last played on Saturday, so it has had three days of rest in between games.  It will also be highly motivated to put and end to a nine-game losing streak that has seen five of those losses come by single-digits, including four by 5 points or fewer.

The Hornets have played the Bulls very tough in recent meetings.  Indeed, each of the last four meetings were decided by 6 points or less.  The Hornets won their last home games against the Bulls by a final of 91-86 (OT) in their final meeting of 2014.  Couple their tough play against Chicago with the horrible spot for the Bulls, and that makes this an excellent play tonight.

The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on no rest.  Chicago is 19-39-1 ATS in its last 59 when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Bulls are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. 

The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Hornets are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. NBA Central division foes.  Charlotte is 20-7-2 ATS in its last 29 Wednesday games.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Raptors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 203.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Sacramento Kings.  I believe it has a lot to do with the Raptors' 122-129 (OT) loss to the Lakers last time out.  The Lakers don't play any defense and that game was not a telling sign of what's going to happen tonight.

It was also the first game for the Raptors without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).  Teams can usually get by for a game without their leading scorer, but over time it becomes much harder for the offense to do so.  DeRozan (groin) will miss this game as well and the offense will suffer without him.

Sacramento is dealing with an injury issue of its own to leading scorer DeMarcus Cousins (23.5 ppg, 12.6 rpg).  He has missed the last two games due to an illness and is questionable to return tonight.  The Kings only managed 85 points in an 85-97 loss to Memphis last time out.  Whether he plays or not, I still love this UNDER.

Both teams have been pretty solid defensively this season.  The Raptors are giving up 98.9 points per game on 45.9% shooting, while the Kings are allowing 100.6 points per game on 44.3% shooting.  Sacramento only allows 97.1 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home.  The Raptors' defensive numbers are a lot better if you exclude that overtime game against the Lakers last time out, too.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Raptors last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Kings last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Kings last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the UNDER.  Also, the UNDER is 9-3 in Kings last 12 home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Mavericks/Bulls Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 203.5

Rarely ever will you see a total set of greater than 200 points in a game involving the Chicago Bulls, who have been one of the league's best defensive teams since Tom Thibodeau arrived.  In fact, only twice all season have they had a total set of greater than 196.5 points.  Those came against the Nuggets and Celtics, who are two teams that play little defense and at a fast pace.

Both Chicago and Dallas rank in the middle of the league in pace this season.  They both rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency, and the Bulls are down lower than their normally would be at 9th, giving up 101.3 points per 100 possessions, but still solid nonetheless.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was how low-scoring the recent meetings between the Mavericks and Bulls have been.  They have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings with a 6-1 record for the UNDERS.

They have combined for 191, 188, 198, 179, 176, 159 and 171 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 180.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 23 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.5.  That fact alone shows that there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in this game tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (CHICAGO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 58-26 (69%) over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 14-4 to the UNDER in December home games over the last three seasons. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last four when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bills last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bulls last 10 vs. Western Conference foes.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Timberwolves/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +14

The Los Angeles Clippers were 5-4 heading into their seven-game road trip and not playing very well at all.  Well, they won six of their seven games during that trip with their only loss coming to Western Conference-leading Memphis.

"We made it a business trip," point guard Chris Paul said. "We got out of our own way. We played a little bit more free and really moved the ball. Most of all, our defense was pretty good."

Well, now I expect them to have a letdown after such a successful trip when they return home Monday.  That first game home after a long road trip is always tough on players.  They have so many obligations when they get back home that they can easily forget about basketball.  I don't believe the Clippers will play with the kind of focus it takes to put away Minnesota by more than 14 points Monday.

The Clippers have covered five of their last seven games, while the Timberwolves have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games with one push.  The betting public has taken notice, which is the reason why this line is so inflated.  There's clearly value in backing the Timberwolves as such a massive dog here.

I know Minnesota is dealing with some injuries right now, but this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA and other players have stepped up.  Mo Williams is playing some of the best basketball of his career, and guys like Thaddeus Young (13.9 ppg), Andrew Wiggins (11.6 ppg), Corey Brewer (10.9 ppg) and Shabazz Muhammad (9.5 ppg) have stepped up their games.

Minnesota will be motivated to put an end to a 9-game losing streak to Los Angeles in this series.  While that is concerning, a closer look shows that it has rarely been blown out by the Clippers.  Indeed, The Clippers have only beaten the Timberwolves by more than 13 points once in those nine meetings.  The last four have all been decided by 10 points or less, including three by 4 or fewer.

Plays on road teams (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.  The road team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Kings UNDER 195.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings will take part in a defensive battle tonight in this Western Conference showdown.  The books opened this number around 191.5 and it has been bet all the way up to 195.5 in some place, creating some nice value for us here.

Neither of these teams prefer to push the tempo.  In fact, Memphis ranks just 22nd in the league in pace, averaging just 94.4 possessions per game.  Sacramento is 14th in pace at 95.6 possessions per contest.

The reason Memphis is 14-2 right now and atop the Western Conference standings is its play defensively.  It ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 98.3 points per 100 possessions.  Opponents are making just 43.2% of their shots for 92.8 points per game against the Grizzlies.

Memphis has been worse offensively and better defensively on the road this year.  It is scoring just 94.5 points per game away from home, but giving up just 89.9 points per game, combining with its opponents for an average of 184.4 points per game in road games.

Sacramento has been a much better defensive team at home.  It is giving up an average of 97.2 points per game at home this year and 44.1% shooting.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Sacramento's six home games this year, and 5-3 in Memphis' eight road games.

These teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings as the Grizzlies and Kings have combined for 188 or fewer points in four of their last five meetings.  I know they combined for 221 in their first meeting of 2014, but that was simply an aberration.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies las five road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Kings last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Kings last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Kings last 22 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5

The Philadelphia 76ers (0-15) are desperate for their first win of the season.  They could have a good shot of pulling off the upset against the Dallas Mavericks tonight given the situation, and I fully expect them to stay within 12 points at the very least.

The betting public wants nothing to do with an 0-15 team, which has driven this line up higher than it should be tonight.  The 76ers have actually been undervalued over the past week.  They are 2-1 ATS against the closing line in their last three games.

The 76ers only lost 83-91 at New York as an 11-point underdog, 104-114 against Portland as a 13-point dog, and 91-99 against Brooklyn as a 7-point dog.  They have been much more competitive in these three games, and they should continue that trend tonight.

Dallas is in a very difficult spot.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days.  It is coming off a hard-fought 106-102 win at Eastern Conference-leading Toronto last night, setting it up for a letdown spot here as well.  This tired team won't have what it takes to put away the 76ers by 13-plus points.  Plus, Philadelphia comes in on two days' rest after last playing on Wednesday.

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 51-22 (69.9%) ATS since 1996.  Philadelphia is 75-48 ATS in its last 123 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  Take the 76ers Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Indiana Pacers should not be laying this many points to anyone with the state they are in this season.  They are playing without four starters from last year in Paul George, George Hill, Lance Stephenson and David West.  West is questionable to return tonight, and Roy Hibbert is also questionable.

The Pacers have shown some heart by getting to 6-9 thus far, but this still isn't a very good team, and certainly not one that should be laying this many points.  Only once this season have the Pacers been more than a 4-point favorite, and that was back in their opener as 7.5-point favorites against lowly Philadelphia.

Orlando has made some strides this season as it has been much more competitive with a 6-11 record.  It has lost three straight coming in, but those three came to Miami, Cleveland and Golden State, which are three of the better teams in the NBA.  This rough patch has the Magic undervalued right now.

The Pacers are overvalued due to solid performances on the road in their last two games.  They actually beat Dallas 111-100 as a 14-point underdog as the Mavs simply had a letdown.  They also hung tough against San Antonio last time out in a 100-106 road loss as a 13-point dog.  With Cleveland on deck tomorrow, this is a huge letdown and lookahead spot.  They'll let down following a game against the defending champion Spurs, and they'll be looking ahead to Lebron James and the Cavs tomorrow.

Orlando is 26-12 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Orlando is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Friday games.  Indiana is 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 home games.  The Pacers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +9

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued due to their 12-2 record that has them in second place in the Western Conference.  The only reason they are 9-point favorites here is because the betting public is all over them due to their fast start, which has created expectations from the oddsmakers that they cannot live up to.

Charlotte is undervalued right now due to its 4-12 start that has it ranking near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.  There's no question that this team is better than its record would indicate, and it should not be catching nine points at home tonight.

Eight of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 9 points or less, including six by 5 points or fewer.  So, this team has simply been unfortunate in close games.  The Hornets will be desperate to put an end to their seven-game losing streak coming in, which has seen them fail to cover six times.  That has also driven this line up as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

Plays against road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 41% or less on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +6

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly not off to the start they wanted this season after making the playoffs last year.  However, they are nowhere near as bad as their 4-11 record would indicate, and as a result they are showing excellent value tonight as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Six of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 5 points or less.  So, with a little better fortune in close games, this team would be a .500 squad.  They have lost six in a row coming in so the betting public wants nothing to do with them, which has created some nice line value here.  Three of their last four losses have been by 5 points or fewer.

The Hornets come into this game not only highly motivated to put an end to their six-game skid, but also to get revenge on the Blazers.  They lost to Portland on the road 100-102 back on November 11th.  They were 6.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch.  That fact alone shows you that there is a ton of value in backing the Hornets.

The Blazers are clearly overvalued right now due to going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them tonight, driving this line up higher than it should be.  The Blazers are only 3-2 on the road this season with their three wins coming against Denver, Boston and Philadelphia.

Plays on home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 105-61 (63.3%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there is value in backing teams that have hit a rough patch ATS while fading teams that have been covering machines ATS.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +8

At 0-14 on the season, the Philadelphia 76ers are desperate for their first victory.  That 0-14 record also has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them, which has created some excellent line value for us to pounce on tonight as they host the Brooklyn Nets.

Philadelphia has been much more competitive in its last two games and should put up a good fight tonight as well.  It covered in an 83-91 loss at New York as an 11-point underdog, then came back with a cover in a 104-114 home loss to Portland as a 13-point dog.

Brooklyn (5-8) isn't worthy of laying 8 points to any team on the road.  Its five wins this season have come against Detroit, Oklahoma City (twice), New York and Orlando.  It has lost six of its last seven games overall coming into this one with five of those losses coming by 8 points or more.  The Nets are just 2-5 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 5.7 points per game.

Philadelphia played Brooklyn very tough last year in the final three meetings of the season.  It went a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Nets with all three being decided by 6 points or less.  It won 121-120 as a 5.5-point home dog, lost 108-102 as a 9-point road dog, and lost 101-105 as an 11-point home dog.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Nets are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  I would argue that the 76ers have more talent than last year, while the Nets have less.

The 76ers are 8-0 ATS in home games after three straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The 76ers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 vs. Eastern Conference foes, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division teams.  Philadelphia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the league this year.  They have opened 7-5 this season and will be a contender to reach the Western Conference playoffs with all of the talent they have on board.

Antony Davis (26.3 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.5 bpg) is an MVP candidate already this year.  Jrue Holiday (15.3 ppg, 6.8 apg) and Ryan Anderson (14.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg) have returned healthy this season and made a huge difference.  Tyreke Evans (15.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 6.2 apg) is the do-it-all guy for this team.

I know that the Pelicans are banged up right now as Omer Asik (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.2 bpg) is questionable to play tonight, while Eric Gordon (9.5 ppg) is out indefinitely.  But as long as they have their four aforementioned studs healthy, I'm not worried one bit.

Sacramento (8-5) has been one of the biggest surprises in the West this season, but unlike New Orleans, its fast start is unlikely to continue.  I believe the Kings are still a pretender in the West and getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers here as only 3.5-point underdogs.

The Kings have much more worrisome injury concerns than the Pelicans do right now.  Rudy Gay (21.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Darren Collison (15.9 ppg, 7.0 apg) and Ramon Sessions (5.2 ppg) are all questionable to play tonight.  Gay is their second-leading scorer, while Collison and Sessions are the 1-2 on this team at the point guard position to run the offense.  Even if all three play, I STILL love New Orleans as only a 3-point home favorite in this one.

The Pelicans are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Dallas way back in their second game of the season.  The Pelicans are outscoring opponents by 15.2 points per game at home this year.  The Kings are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on two days' rest.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New Orleans is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 home games overall.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +5

The Toronto Raptors have clearly been one of the best teams in the league this season.  They have gone 11-2 straight up and 9-4 against the spread, so they have been a covering machine thus far.  While they will continue to be a good bet for much of the season, I believe they are overvalued here tonight.

Phoenix is a team that barely missed the playoffs despite winning 48 games last year in a stacked Western Conference.  It was an underrated squad last year, and that continues to be the case in 2014.  It has opened 9-5 straight up and 7-6 against the spread against a much tougher schedule than Toronto.

A big reason I'm fading the Raptors tonight is because this is a letdown spot for them.  They are coming off a huge 110-93 win at Cleveland on Saturday, which was the favorite to win the NBA Finals coming into the season.  The Raptors won't come back with the same kind of effort they played with in that game.

The Suns have feasted on Eastern Conference opponents this season.  They have gone 5-1 against them, including a perfect 4-0 on the road.  All four of those have come in their last four games as they will conclude a six-game road trip with tonight's game and want to finish it off a winner.

Phoenix swept the season series with Toronto last season.  It won 106-97 at home as a 3.5-point favorite.  It then went on the road and beat the Raptors 121-113 as a 4-point underdog in the second meetings.  The Suns should not be the underdog in this first meeting of 2013-14 tonight.

Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, in November games are 53-26 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Phoenix is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  The Suns are 51-22 ATS in their last 73 vs. teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots per game. 

Phoenix is 11-2 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 29-15 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  Phoenix is 32-15-1 ATS in its last 48 road games.  The Suns are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Raptors are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.   Take the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly hurting without Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  They have opened the season 3-11 and will struggle to make the playoffs after this poor start.  The betting public has taken notice, and they want nothing to do with this team now.

That poor public perception has really created a lot of line value for us to back the Thunder today.  They have lost five in a row coming in, but a closer look at their losses shows that they have actually been very competitive despite playing a very difficult schedule this season.

The Thunder are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall, but only one of those seven losses has come by more than seven points.  So, they have been very close, but they just haven't been able to get over the hump.

Oklahoma City has been much more competitive at home than on the road.  It is 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS at home this season.  It has beaten Denver (102-91) and Sacramento (101-93), while all four of its losses to Memphis (89-91), Detroit (89-96), Houston (65-69) and Brooklyn (92-94) have come by seven points or fewer.  So, it has yet to lose at home by this margin.

Golden State, on the other hand, is way overvalued right now due to its 9-2 start to the season.  It has won four straight coming in, but all four of those were against weak opponents in Brooklyn, Charlotte, LA Lakers and Utah.  I have no doubt that the Warriors are feeling overconfident due to this fast start, and they won't bring the intensity it takes to put away the Thunder by this margin on the road.

Oklahoma City is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  The Thunder are 61-31 ATS in their last 92 off an upset loss as a favorite.  Oklahoma City is 33-14 ATS in its last 47 following a close loss by 3 points or less.  The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Warriors.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Timberwolves UNDER 211

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves.  If this was last year, this total would be justified, but these are two completely different teams from last year.

Minnesota no longer has Kevin Love, and it is battling all kinds of injury issues right now.  It is without each of its top three scorers in Kevin Martin (20.4 ppg), Thaddeus Young (14.3 ppg) and Nikola Pekovic (11.9 ppg) due to injuries or personal issues right now. They are also without starting PG Ricky Rubio right now, which has hurt their offense.

Points were certainly hard to come by for the Timberwolves in their first game without all three of these guys last night.  The Timberwolves managed just 92 points on 41.1% shooting against the San Antonio Spurs Friday.

Sacramento lost point guard Isaiah Thomas this offseason, but it has actually been better without him.  It is off to a solid 7-5 start this season.  The biggest reason is its improvement on defense as it is giving up just 100.8 points per game and 43.8% shooting.

The Kings actually rank in the top half of the league (13th) in defensive efficiency this year, giving up 103.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Timberwolves are a better defensive team without Martin and Pekovic, who are liabilities on that end.  So, their defensive numbers should improve going forward.

The Kings & Timberwolves have combined for 209 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, and six of their last seven meetings overall.  That says a lot because the Timberwolves were a much better offensive team with Kevin Love and a healthy Rubio, Pekovic and Martin.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (SACRAMENTO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) over the last five seasons.  Minnesota is 20-7 to the UNDER in its last 27 home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games.  Sacramento is 17-4 to the UNDER in its last 21 off four straight games where it forced opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Raptors/Cavaliers UNDER 208.5

This is a matchup between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  I fully expect a defensive battle as the Toronto Raptors travel to face the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Both teams rank right in the middle of the pack in pace.  Toronto is 13th with 95.9 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 17th at 95.4 possessions per game.  Neither of these teams really like to get up and down as they prefer to run their offense in the half court.

Toronto is combining with its opponents to average 201.6 points per game this season.  Cleveland is combining with its foes to average 204.5 points per game on the year.  Those two numbers alone show you that there is a ton of value in backing this UNDER tonight.

The Cavaliers are averaging just 88.3 points per game during their current three-game losing streak.  Their defense has been better as they have held three of their last four opponents to 94 or fewer points.  All three of them were good offensive teams in Atlanta, San Antonio and Washington as well.

Toronto and Cleveland have combined for 202 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings, including 196 or less in five of those.  Dating back further, they have combined for 202 or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games as well.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 208.5.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Cavaliers/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5

Off back-to-back losses, including a painful 90-92 loss to the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be very hungry for a victory Friday.  I look for them to roll over the Washington Wizards in blowout fashion as they take their frustration out on John Wall and company.

I have no doubt that Cleveland is still one of the best teams in the league despite its mediocre 5-5 start.  It ranks 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions.  It will be up at No. 1 in the league in this category by season's end.

I am also certainly that Washington is overvalued in the early going thanks to making the playoffs last year and its 7-3 start this season.  However, a closer look shows that the Wizards have been feasting on an easy schedule. 

Their three losses have come to the Heat, Raptors and Mavericks, which are the three best teams that they have faced.  Their seven wins have come against the likes of the Magic (twice), Bucks, Knicks, Pacers (twice) and Pistons.  They have yet to beat a team of any significance.

The road team won all four meetings between these teams last year, and the Cavaliers have actually won five of their last seven meetings with the Wizards.  What is most impressive about that is the fact that they didn't have Lebron James OR Kevin Love for any of those seven games.  Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five visits to Washington.  Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The San Antonio Spurs are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 92-90 win at Cleveland on ESPN Wednesday night, and they aren't going to be able to muster up the kind of focus it's going to take to beat Minnesota by more than 8 points to cover this spread.

Also, look for Greg Popovich to limit his star players' minutes knowing that the Spurs have a game on deck tomorrow against the Nets.  The Spurs don't have much of a bench as it is as they are playing without Tiago Splitter and Patrick Mills, while both Matt Bonner and Marco Belinelli are questionable.

Yes, the Timberwolves are in a bit of a rebuilding phase, and they are off to a poor 3-7 start this season.  They are also battling injuries of their own right now.  Ricky Rubio (ankle), Nikola Pekovic (wrist) and Thaddeus Young (personal) are all expected to be unavailable Friday.

However, scheduling has been the biggest reason for the Timberwolves' poor start.  They have played seven of their first 10 games on the road.  In their three home games, they have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with their only loss coming to the Bulls (105-106) by a single point.

Despite being without Rubio, Young and Pekovic, the Timberwolves put together their most impressive performance of the season in a 115-99 win over the Knicks on Wednesday.  Kevin Martin scored 37 points, Mo Williams had 14 points and 13 assists, and Shabazz Muhammad added 17 points and eight boards in the win.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can survive with some injuries.

Minnesota has played San Antonio very tough recently.  In fact, it is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It won 110-91 as a 7.5-point home dog late last year, 108-95 on the road in 2013, and 107-83 at home in 2013 as well.  It has covered the spread in all four games it was a dog of 7.5 points or more against the Spurs during this stretch.

The Timberwolves are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Spurs.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +9

The Toronto Raptors are a team that I have a lot of respect for and one that I have backed quite a bit in the early going.  However, after a 9-2 start straight up accompanied by a 7-4 ATS mark, this team is now overvalued and worth fading tonight.

The biggest reason I'm going to fade the Raptors tonight is because this is an extremely difficult spot for them emotionally.  They are coming off a 96-92 home win over the top team in the West in Memphis, and now they will be looking ahead to Saturday's game at Cleveland against Lebron James and company.  So, this is a letdown AND lookahead spot for the Raptors.

They won't be giving the kind of attention to the Bucks that they deserve.  Milwaukee is one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers.  It has gone 7-5 straight up and a sensational 9-3 ATS in its 12 games this season.

Even the losses have been competitive as the Bucks have only lost twice all season by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to fail to cover the spread Friday, and I just don't see it happening.  They have won five of their last six, which includes road wins at Miami (91-84) and Brooklyn (122-118).

What I like about this Bucks team is that they defend, and they get that from their head coach Jason Kidd.  They have extraordinary length at almost all positions, and they are giving up just 96.4 points per game on 43.5% shooting.  They rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 97.7 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Rockets, Warriors and Spurs have been better.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home teams (TORONTO) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucks are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* Bulls/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5

The Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings both could be missing key players tonight.  Derrick Rose (18.0 ppg) and Pau Gasol (18.6 ppg) are both questionable to return, while Rudy Gay (21.8 ppg) is also questionable for Sacramento.

The good news is that I like this UNDER no matter whether these three play or not, but if they don't play it's going to be an added bonus.  I fully expect a defensive battle between the Bulls and Kings on TNT tonight.

Chicago is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  Opponents are shooting just 42.9% against the Bulls, who rank 7th in the league in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 100.4 points per 100 possessions this year.

These teams have played in some low-scoring games in recent years.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the Bulls and Kings.  They have combined for 181, 169, 200, and 180 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 182.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Bulls' last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Kings last 20 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Kings last 15 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Kings last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA again this season.  They made the playoffs last year and are well on their way to challenging for the top spot in the Eastern Conference in 2014-15.

The Raptors returned almost all of their scoring from last year, and they are off to an 8-2 start this season, which is good for 1st place in the East thus far.  Their only two losses have come against the Heat and Bulls.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game.

While the Raptors aren't getting much credit for their 8-2 start, the Grizzlies are way overvalued due to their 10-1 start this season that has them in first place in the West.  This team isn't as good as their record as they have simply been fortunate in close games.

Seven of their 10 wins have come by single-digits this season.  They are in a massive letdown spot here off their impressive 119-93 home win over the Houston Rockets on Monday, which was for first place in the West.  They won't be bringing the kind of intensity it takes to beat the hungry Raptors tonight.

Toronto actually swept the season series with Memphis last year in two blowout victories.  It won 103-87 as a 6-point road underdog to the Grizzlies on November 13th, and it came back and put a 99-86 beat down on the Grizzlies as a 1-point home underdog in the rematch on March 14th.

Memphis is 2-11 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 8-27 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  Toronto is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. Western Conference foes.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Toronto Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Cavaliers ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -2.5

Lebron James hasn't forgotten the sting of losing to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals last season.  I look for him to play with an extra edge tonight to help his new Cleveland Cavaliers knock off the defending champs at home going away.

The Cavaliers had really been playing very well prior to their 97-106 loss to Denver on Monday.  They had won four in a row, including a 127-94 victory over Atlanta the game prior.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game during that loss to the Nuggets.

The Spurs haven't resembled the defending champs at all.  They have already lost four games this season, including losses to the Kings, Suns, Pelicans and Rockets (81-98).  They have gone just 4-6 ATS in all games and have been overvalued all season.  They are again tonight only catching 2.5 points to the Cavaliers when it should be more.

One of the reasons the Spurs haven't been up to their level of play from last year is that they have been playing without starting center Tiago Splitter and key reserves Patty Mills and Marco Bellinelli.  They remain without this underrated trio tonight against Cleveland.

The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.   The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Wednesday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Bet Cleveland Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bucks UNDER 189.5

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, and that will be on display once again in this one.

New York is scoring just 93.9 points per game on 44.9% shooting.  It is struggling in the new Triangle Offense, which is why it ranks 30th in the league in pace at 91.8 possessions per game.  It just struggles to find decent shots within the confines of the offense.

Milwaukee has been even worse than New York offensively.  It is putting up just 91.8 points per game on 43.8% shooting.  It ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 94.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only OKC and Philadelphia have been worse.

Both teams have played reasonably well defensively to keep them in games.  Milwaukee is giving up 92.6 points per game on 41.8% shooting, ranking 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency.  It is allowing just 94.7 points per 100 possessions.  New York gives up 98.1 points per game on 44.9% shooting.

New York has only topped 100 points in one of its 11 games this season, while Milwaukee has only topped 97 points once all season, and that came in an overtime game.  The Bucks have allowed 98 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games this year, while the Knicks have given up 98 or fewer in seven of their 11 games.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks last seven games overall with combined scores of 168, 181, 193, 185, 163, 186 and 175 points.  That's an average of 178.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 189.5.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Bulls/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers are way undervalued right now due to their poor start to the season against the spread.  They have gone 5-3 straight up just 1-7 ATS, making the betting public gun-shy to back them.  I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back them as small home favorites over the Bulls tonight.

The Clippers come in well-rested as this will be just their second game in the past seven days.  All this extra time off has allowed them to correct their mistakes in practice, and they should be putting forth great efforts going forward.

Los Angeles is coming off its best performance of the season on Saturday.  It beat a very good Phoenix team 120-107 as just a 7-point favorite.  It shot 52.9% from the field and held the Suns to 38.4% shooting.  It has four days off before that game, so the extra practice time certainly paid off, and it should again tonight.

Chicago just can't catch a break with Derrick Rose.  He is now dealing with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss their last game against Indiana.  The Bulls lost to the Pacers 90-99 despite being 8.5-point favorites in that game.  Rose is doubtful to play tonight as well, so look for this Chicago offense to struggle once again without him.

The Clippers have dominated the Bulls the past two seasons.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Chicago, winning those four games by an average of a ridiculous 20.5 points per game.  They won 112-95 on the road and 121-82 at home against the Bulls int heir two meetings last year.

The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Los Angeles.  Take the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4

Stan Van Gundy, the new head coach in Detroit, certainly wants to stick it to his former team in Orlando.  The Pistons will be playing hard for their coach, and they'll be happy to return home from a grueling four-game road trip to take in the Magic tonight.

The Pistons grew up in that road trip as they played very competitively against some of the league's elite teams.  They went just 1-3 SU, but 3-1 ATS as all four games were competitive.  The lost 91-102 at Chicago, 103-107 at Washington, 88-95 at Memphis, and beat Oklahoma City 96-89.

The Orlando Magic are an improved team this season, but they are still just 4-7 and come into this game way overvalued against the more talented Pistons.  The Magic are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and that's why oddsmakers aren't giving them as many points as they should be.  The betting public has taken notice of this 6-0 ATS streak, and now it's time to fade the overvalued Magic.

As poor as Orlando has been on the road over the past two years, there's no way it should only be catching four points here.  Indeed, the Magic are an NBA-worst 6-42 on the road since the start of last season.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that they are a very tired team right now.  They have played four of their last five games on the road, and this will be their 5th game in 7 days.  They had games on the 11th, 12th, 14th and 15th of November.  They simply have nothing left in the tank right now.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team won all three meetings last year in blowout fashion by 14 points or more.  The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings as well.  Detroit is 30-11 in its last 41 home meetings with Orlando. 

The Magic are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Orlando is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game.  The Magic are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rockets/Thunder UNDER 193

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets square off Sunday in what I believe will be a defensive battle.  These are two of the better defensive teams in the league, and that will be on display tonight.

The Rockets have gone 8-1 to the UNDER this season due to their improvement on the defensive end.  They have three of the best defenders in the league at their respective positions in C Dwight Howard, SF Trevor Ariza and PG Patrick Beverly.  Beverly has missed a few games due to injury, but he is expected to return Sunday and will shut down OKC's Reggie Jackson.

Houston is giving up just 91.6 points per game on 41.3% shooting this season.  It ranked No. 1 in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 92.9 points per 100 possessions.  Its offense has taken a step back with the loss of Chandler Parsons and the injury to Terrance Jones as it is shooting just 44.1% this season.

Oklahoma City is playing without Kevin Durant AND Russell Westbrook, and as a result, points have been very hard to come by.  The Thunder are scoring just 92.0 points per game and shooting 43.3% from the floor.  They rank 28th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 96.0 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder know they aren't going to win any shootouts with anyone without Westbrook and Durant, so they have tried to shorten the games by playing at a slow pace.  Indeed, they rank 24th in the league in pace at 93.6 possessions per game.  They have been dominant defensively, giving up just 96.5 points per game and 43.5% shooting to the opposition this year.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (HOUSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Sunday games are 49-19 (72.1%) over the last five seasons.  Houston is 11-1 to the UNDER in its last 12 games off a win.  The UNDER is 14-5 in Thunder's last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oklahoma City.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons struggled in the early going and are just 3-6 on the season.  That's why they are so undervalued right now because of this slow start, but they have been playing much better since an 0-3 start.

Indeed, the Pistons have won three of their last six games overall, including a 96-89 road win at Oklahoma City last night.  They lost to Utah (96-97) at home, and lost to Chicago (91-102) and Washington (103-107) both on the road.  They have been very competitive in each of their last six games, and their biggest loss all season has come by 12 points.

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams in the league right now.  They are 8-1 on the season, but nowhere near as good as their record would indicate.  Indeed, all eight of their wins have come by 12 points or less, including six by 8 points or fewer.

The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall showing how overvalued they have been of late.  They only beat Oklahoma City 91-89 as a 7-point favorite, lost to Milwaukee 92-93 as a 4.5-point favorite, beat the Lakers 107-102 as a 10-point favorite, and beat the Kings 111-110 as a 5-point favorite in their last four games, respectively. 

I would argue that the Pistons are as good or better than all four of those teams that played Memphis down to the wire.  The Grizzlies came from way behind to beat the Kings on Thursday, and got the game-winner with only a few ticks remaining from Courtney Lee.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here as well off such an emotional comeback win.

Detroit is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games after outrebounding its last opponent by 15 or more boards.  The Pistons are 12-2 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 7-26 ATS in its last 33 games after three straight games where it committed 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Pistons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Grizzlies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have won four of their last six games overall and are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games.

What I like most about the Magic is that they don't get blown out too often.  They have only lost by double-digits twice all season, and those game way back early in the year in their 1st and 3rd games of the season against the Pelicans and Raptors, which are two of the best teams in the NBA.

Orlando has really been stockpiling talent, and it's starting to pay off.  Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg), Evan Fournier (17.9 ppg) and Tobias Harris (17.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg) are really having solid seasons.  These aren't your household names, but this trio ranks right up there with the very best in the league.

The Wizards are 6-2 this season, but I believe they are a big overvalued here because of it.  Their six wins have come against the likes of Orlando (105-98), Milwaukee, New York, Indiana (twice) and Detroit.  All five of those teams that their six wins have come against currently have losing records on the season.  Only two of their twins have come by more than 7 points this year.

Sure, the Wizards did beat the Magic earlier this season by 7 points, but that just puts the Magic in revenge mode heading into this one.  That should help them overcome the tough 4 games in 5 nights situation, which is the reason this line is as high as it is.  They will use that motivation to help them push through possibly having tired legs, though fatigue isn't as big of a factor this early in the year.

Washington is 12-23 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Washington is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -6.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have one of the most talented rosters in the league with the likes of Anthony Davis, Omer Asik, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.  This team is a real playoff contender in the West.

The Pelicans have been playing like it in their last four games.  They beat Charlotte 100-91 at home, went on the road and beat the defending champion Spurs 100-99, only lost 111-118 at Cleveland, which is the favorite to win the title this year, and beat the Lakers 109-102 last time out in a game they once led by 23.

While New Orleans already has the pieces to be a contender, Minnesota is in full-blown rebuilding mode.  It is just 2-5 on the season with its only wins coming against Brooklyn and Detroit.  It has really struggled since losing starting point guard Ricky Rubio to an ankle injury.

Indeed, the Timberwolves have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all without Rubio.  They lost 103-112 at Orlando, 92-102 at Miami, and 101-113 against Houston in Mexico City.  I believe a fourth straight blowout defeat will be the Timberwolves' fate tonight.

Minnesota hasn't been good at either end of the floor.  It is shooting just 43.8% while ranking 20th in the league in offensive efficiency.  It is allowing 102.9 points per game on 48.1% shooting while ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in recent meetings between these teams.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  New Orleans is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Knicks UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Utah Jazz and New York Knicks.  This is an under bettors' dream tonight.  Both teams love to slow it down and play at a snail's pace, which will lead to an easy cash on the UNDER in this one.

New York has really been struggling to learn the Triangle Offense, which is why it is putting up just 91.6 points per game this season on 43.7% shooting.  It has yet to score 100 points in any game this season.  Utah has been a little better offensively, but it is still just scoring 97.6 points per game on the year.  It has failed to top 97 points in any of its last four games.

Because the Knicks are lost offensively, they rank dead last (30th) in the league in pace at 91.2 possessions per game.  Utah also likes to slow it down, ranking 27th in the NBA in pace at 93.2 possessions per game.  Fewer possessions equal fewer points, which is precisely how this game will play out tonight.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Knicks and Jazz, and this was before the Knicks went to this new offense. They have combined for 175, 189 and 173 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.0 combined points per game, which is 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 193, showing you that there is value on this UNDER based on the head-to-head history.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Jazz last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Bulls/Raptors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5

The Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Bulls are 6-2 this season while the Raptors are 7-1.  A big reason for both of their successes is because they each get after it on the defensive end of the court.

The Bulls are holding teams to 98.4 points per game and 42.7% shooting.  The Raptors are limiting foes to 96.4 points per game and 46.2% shooting.  Toronto ranks 7th in the league in defensive efficiency, while Chicago ranks 12th.

These teams have been prone to defensive battles when they have gotten together recently.  They have combined for 186 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They are averaging a combined 177.4 points per game in their last five meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.  There is clearly a ton of value in this under based on that alone.

Chicago is 13-3 to the UNDER versus poor passing teams that average 20 or less assists over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 15-3 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The Bulls are 8-0 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of their last game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Raptors last 27 Thursday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 200.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight for many more reasons other than the fact that the defensive intensity will be amplified considering this is a National TV game.

The Houston Rockets haven't missed a beat this season since trading away Chandler Parsons and replacing him with Trevor Ariza.  They got an upgrade on defense and a slight downgrade on offense.  Arizona has been a big reason for their early success en route to a 6-1 record thus far.

The Rockets actually lead the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 92.5 points per 100 possessions.  They haven't allowed an opponent to score 100 points yet, giving up just 90.9 points per game on 40.7% shooting.  That's a big reason why they are 7-0 to the UNDER in all games this year.

Minnesota has quietly been competitive this year, but it suffered a huge blow when starting point guard Ricky Rubio suffered a serious ankle injury a couple games ago that's going to keep him out for a couple of weeks.  It hurts their offense tremendously, but they actually become a better defensive team without Rubio on the floor.

That has been evident in the two games since Rubio got hurt.  Minnesota was tied with Orlando 94-94 at the end of regulation on November 7th for 188 combined points before overtime.  It lost 92-102 at Miami the next night in two games that would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime.  The Timberwolves shot just 43.0% from the field against the Magic, and 40.2% against the Heat.

Houston has combined for 199 or fewer points with all seven of its opponents this season, while Minnesota has combined for 194 or fewer combined points with four of its six opponents this season when you don't count overtime.  These two facts alone show that there is value in backing the UNDER 200.5 points in this game.

Minnesota is 21-9 to the UNDER as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 16-4 to the UNDER in their last 20 home games after failing to cover the spread in two more more consecutive games coming in.  The Rockets are 9-0 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall.  Houston is 5-0 to the UNDER in its last five road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Minnesota.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Pacers/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 190

The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat are hated rivals who have met in the Eastern Conference Finals each of the last two years.  These games are always played closer to the vest, and the defensive intensity will be there because of it.  That's especially the case considering this game will be shown on National TV.

The difference this year is that both teams are without a ton of their scoring from last season.  The Heat are without Lebron James and Ray Allen, while the Pacers are currently playing without Paul George, David West, George Hill and C.J. Watson.

To no surprise, Indiana has really struggled offensively this year.  It is scoring just 93.0 points per game on 42.6% shooting, which includes an overtime game.  It has failed to score more than 98 points in any game this season.

What I like about this play is that both teams play at very slow paces.  Not surprisingly, Indiana ranks 27th in the league in pace at 93.4 possessions per game.  It also ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

Miami isn't looking to get up and down the floor to put up a ton of shots, either.  It ranks 21st in the league in pace, averaging just 94.3 possessions per game.  It has shot 48.1% from the field this year, which is very impressive, but it's also unsustainable moving forward.

The Pacers and Heat have combined for 191 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 meetings overall.  I certainly do not foresee them getting to 190 tonight given the circumstances for the Pacers, who simply have no offensive firepower with all of their injuries.  They know they have to try to win games by limiting possessions, which is what they will try and do again tonight.

Indiana is 20-4 to the UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Miami is 77-47 to the UNDER in its last 124 games following a game where it made 55% of its shots or better.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Miami's last four games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued at this point in the season due to their 1-5 start.  That's the reason I backed them against the Hornets in a 107-92 home win on Sunday, and it's the same reason I'm on them again here tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Lakers started 0-5 due to a brutal schedule, not necessarily because of poor play.  They had to face the Rockets, Suns (twice), Clippers and Warriors in their first five games.  Those are four contenders in the West who all have winning records on the year. 

The Lakers also had to play four games in five days, which is one of the toughest situations for any NBA team.  They were doomed from the start, and I really believe this team is better than they are getting credit for because the chips were stacked against them early.

Now, Los Angeles has had ample time to rest this will be just its second game in the past seven days.  It should come into Memphis playing with a ton of confidence after its best performance of the season in that 15-point win over Charlotte.

Memphis, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued due to its 6-1 start.  Four of its six wins have come by eight points or less.  It proved to be vulnerable last time out, falling 92-93 at Milwaukee despite being a 4.5-point favorite. 

This team is simply getting too much respect from the books from its fast start against a soft schedule.  Only one of its six wins thus far has come against a team that currently has a winning record, and that is Phoenix (4-3).

Los Angeles was bad last year, yet it played Memphis very tough in all four games.  Only once did it lose by more than five points.  The first three games were all decided by 5 points or less, while the other resulted in a 102-90 win by the Grizzlies late in the season when they were a 12-point favorite and the Lakers had nothing to play for.

The Lakers are 9-1 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two years.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Bucks UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Milwaukee Bucks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one as these are two teams with two of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA.

As you know, the Thunder are playing without their two superstars in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  However, they are also playing without Andre Roberson and Perry Jones, so they really lack playmakers right now. 

The Thunder are only shooting 44.7% from the floor while averaging 92.0 points per game offensively.  They have been lost on offense, which is why they rank 24th in the league in pace, averaging just 94.0 possessions per game.  They are tied for 28th in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.

Oklahoma City has had to make up for it on the defensive end, where it has been solid.  Opponents are only scoring 98.6 points per game on 43.8% shooting against them.  They have Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams holding down the fort inside.

Milwaukee hasn't been very good offensively, either.  It is averaging just 93.9 points per game on 43.6% shooting.  It ranks 25th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.9 points per 100 possessions.

Like the Thunder, they have made up for it on the defensive end.  They are giving up just 94.7 points per game on 43.0% shooting this year.  They have Larry Sanders protecting the paint for them as he is back and healthy this year, which has made a huge difference for their defense.

 The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  The last three have been very low-scoring as they combined for 186, 171 and 184 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  Expect another ugly, low-scoring battle between these two for a fourth straight meetings tonight.

Milwaukee is 8-0 to the UNDER off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder's last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder's last six road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games overall.  The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Bucks last 21 games following a win.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the San Antonio Spurs Monday night.  They will have a packed house for this one as they take on the defending champs, and I look for them to come away with a win and cover.

The Spurs have looked like anything but champions up to this point.  They are just 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the season.  Their two wins came by a combined three points at home over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  I have faded them three times with success this year, and for many of the same reasons as I will be tonight.

San Antonio may finally be done for.  It's a little too early to tell, but this team has been very slow out of the gate.  A big reason for that is its lack of depth.  Key reserve Patty Mills is out until February, starting center Tiago Spitter is out indefinitely, and sharpshooter Marco Belinelli is expected to miss a fourth straight game tonight with a groin injury.

Los Angeles is 4-2 this season, yet it is a woeful 0-6 ATS.  That means that both of these teams have yet to cover a spread.  However, the value is with the Clippers because the oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to want to back the defending champs rather than the Clippers in this one.  That's why they are giving us such a short, generous price on the home favorites.

While I do believe the Spurs are broken right now, I don't believe the Clippers' slow start is because they aren't a good team.  They simply haven't played up to their potential, which shows how good of a team this really is if they can put together a 4-2 record playing that way.

Blake Griffin showed a lot of heart in their last game Saturday as he battled a sickness and easily could have sat out.  Instead, he led the comeback in the second half after trailing by 9 points to help give the Clippers a 106-102 win over the Blazers.  That performance earned him a lot of respect from his teammates, and these guys should rally around him tonight against the defending champs.

“It was an amazing effort,” guard Chris Paul told reporters. “(Griffin) looked like he was about to die at halftime. He was laid out in there, but it shows how selfless he is, sacrificing for the team.”

The home team has won three of the last four meetings between these teams.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers +3.5

Admittedly, the Los Angeles Lakers aren't a very good team.  That's evident by their 0-5 start to the season that has seen them go just 1-3-1 against the spread.  However, this winless start is also the reason the Lakers are showing such great value Sunday.

A closer look at their 0-5 start shows that it has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything.  The Lakers have lost their five games to the Warriors, Rockets, Clippers and Suns, four teams that have a combined 18-5 record on the season.  They even hung tough in home losses to the Clippers (111-118) and Suns (106-112).

Los Angeles is going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to put an end to this skid.  It will be well-rested and ready to go since it last played on November 4th.  That means it has had four days in between games to rest and get prepared for the Bobcats.  Expect the Lakers to put fourth their best effort of the season as they finally avoid having to face a Western Conference contender, and now they get to play a weak team from the East.

Sure, the Charlotte Hornets made the playoffs last year and are an improved team since signing Al Jefferson last year, but they have no business being favored on the road here.  Their three wins have all come at home, while they are 0-2 on the road.  Also, they are in a letdown spot here after their double-overtime win over Atlanta on Friday in which Lance Stephenson banked home a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

The Lakers have won five of their last six meetings with the Hornets.  Plays on any team (LA LAKERS) - off a home loss against a division rival, on Sunday games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 20-39 ATS in their last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this series.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* Pelicans/Spurs Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

The San Antonio Spurs are the defending champions, but they have looked like anything but that through their first four games of the season.  They have no business being this heavily favored against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight as things aren't going to get better any time soon for the Spurs.

San Antonio has opened 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with its two victories coming at home against Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92) by a combined three points.  It has also lost on the road at Phoenix (89-94) and at Houston (81-98).

What is troubling the Spurs right now are injuries to several key role players that are going unnoticed.  Backup PG Patty Mills is out until February with a shoulder injury.  Starting center Tiago Splitter is out with a calf injury.  Also, sharp-shooting reserve guard Marco Belinelli is out with a groin injury.  The Spurs just don't have the depth they did last season.

The Pelicans have opened 2-2 with blowout home wins over Orlando (101-84) and Charlotte (100-91), while losing to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in Dallas (104-109) and Memphis (81-93).

I would go as far to say that the Pelicans are one of the Top 5 most talented teams in the NBA and are a sleeper to win the Western Conference.  They are finally healthy for the start of the season, which has been a problem for them over the last couple of seasons.

New Orleans added Omer Asik (10.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG) in the offseason, and he teams with Anthony Davis (23.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 4.0 BPG) to provide arguably the best defensive frontcourt tandem in the NBA. 

Tyreke Evans (17.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.0 APG), Jrue Holiday (14.5 PPG, 6.2 APG), Ryan Anderson (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Eric Gordon (5.8 PPG) are fully capable of carrying the offense on any given night.  I'm telling you, this is an extremely talented roster that the rest of the West needs to watch out for going forward.

Monte Williams is a very profitable 81-58 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of New Orleans.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. 

I believe the San Antonio championship hangover continues tonight against a New Orleans team that is deeper and more talented than them right now.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

Despite their 3-2 record, the Los Angeles Clippers have not played well at all up to this point.  They are coming off a 104-121 loss at Golden State on Wednesday, and head coach Doc Rivers cannot be pleased with his team's performance.

Look for the Clippers to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder this afternoon against the Blazers.  They have had two days to correct their mistakes in practice since they last played on Wednesday.  I fully expect their best effort of the season in this one.

Portland is in a big letdown spot here after demolishing both Cleveland and Dallas in its last two games.  I believe this team is overvalued as a result, especially since it has played four of its first five games at home.  In their only road game, the Blazers lost to the Kings by a final of 94-103.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, is way undervalued right now due to its poor play early.  In fact, it has failed to cover a single spread this year, going 0-5 ATS.  That's why we're getting the Clippers as only 4-point home favorites in this game, and we'll take advantage of this gift from the books.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Blazers and Clippers.  Indeed, the home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  The Clippers are 5-0 in their last five home meetings with the Blazers with their last three wins coming by an average of 11.3 points per game.

Plays on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - horrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=50% on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* Cavs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland -4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to come out highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have opened the season 1-3 and have not played up to their potential at all yet.  They have also played a tough schedule with three of their first four on the road against the likes of Chicago, Portland and Utah.

Lebron James and Kyrie Irving had a talk after losing at the buzzer to the Jazz on Wednesday.  From all accounts it was a productive talk, and it revolved around not being able to win when you only have six assists in a game as they did against Utah.

I look for both James and Irving to try and get their teammates more involved in this one, and the shooting percentage is going to increase as a result.  After all, the Cavs are only shooting 40.5% from the field this year, which is absurd and won't last.  Not when they have three superstars in James, Irving and Kevin Love.

Look for the Cavaliers to get back on track tonight against a Denver team that has not been impressive at all.  The Nuggets are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS through four games this year.  They are also shooting just 40.6% from the field, and while that will get better as well, they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cavaliers here.

Denver's only win this season came against Detroit at home, which has just one win itself.  Its three losses have come against the likes of Oklahoma City (91-102) and Sacramento twice.  After falling 105-110 to the Kings on Monday, they came back and fell by a final of 109-131 to the Kings again on Wednesday.  Those three results against teams that aren't very good show that the Nuggets are in trouble.

The Nuggets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 Friday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Nets UNDER 192

I'm going to side with the UNDER in this game between Atlantic Division rivals Brooklyn and New York Friday night.  I look for defense to shine through in this one as the final combined score of this game stays well below the 192-point total.

New York has played in a bunch of low-scoring games thus far.  It has combined with its opponents for 189 points or fewer in four of its five games this year.  The only exception was the 193-point output against Detroit last time out, but the two teams needed 59 points in the fourth quarter to get to that number.

I predicted that the Knicks would struggle to learn the Triangle Offense early in the season, and that has certainly been the case.  They are only averaging 89.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting.  Players are out of position consistently and still learning how to play with one another within the Triangle.

You can really tell that they are struggling to find good shots offensively because they are eating up the shotclock almost every possession.  In fact, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging just 89.7 possessions per game.  To compare, the No. 1 team in pace is Golden State, which is averaging 103.0 possessions per game.  When a team's possessions are limited, the UNDER is usually a good bet.

Brooklyn has actually played very well on the offensive end this season.  It is shooting 48.3% from the field thus far, but that's going to be tough to keep up moving forward.  Plus, they have played a pretty easy schedule with the likes of the Celtics, Pistons, Thunder and Timberwolves thus far.  Brooklyn ranks right in the middle of the pack in pace (14th), averaging 96.1 possessions per game.

New York is 32-14 to the UNDER in its last 46 games off a game where its opponent grabbed 65 or more rebounds.  Lionel Hollins is 14-3 to the UNDER in home games versus foul-prone teams that are called for 24 or more fouls per game in all games he has coached.  The UNDER is 11-5 in Nets last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They returned almost their entire roster from last season, and this team is a real sleeper in the East in 2014-15.  You can tell that by how impressive they have looked in their 4-1 start.

Toronto has beaten Atlanta (109-102) and Oklahoma City (100-88) at home, as well as Orlando (108-95) and Boston (110-107) on the road.  Its only loss came at Miami by a final of 102-107.  What makes this 4-1 start so impressive is the fact that the Raptors had to play a stretch of 4 games in 5 nights.

Adding to that is the fact that the Raptors have had to play three games without Amir Johnson and one game without Jonas Valanciunas, who are their two starting frontcourt players.  Well, both Johnson and Valanciunas are listed as probable tonight and expected to suit up.

Washington is also 4-1, but its start has been much less impressive.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Orlando, Milwaukee, New York and Indiana.  It lost at Miami 95-107 for its only defeat.  Both Orlando and Milwaukee are young teams rebuilding, New York is lost in the new Triangle Offense, and Indiana is playing without four of its five starters from last year.

Toronto is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington.  All four wins came by 8 points or more, while its only loss came in overtime.  The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  The Raptors are 24-7-3 ATS in their last 34 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* Spurs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Houston -3

Without question, the Houston Rockets are a contender in the Western Conference this season.  I would go as far to say that they have impressed me more than any other team thus far in 2014, and right now, they are the best team in the NBA.

They have opened the season 5-0 while winning their games in strikingly similar fashion.  They beat the Lakers (108-90), Jazz (104-93), Celtics (104-90), 76ers (104-93) and Heat (108-91).  Sure, this 5-0 start hasn't exactly been against the greatest competition, but four of the five wins came on the road.

It's statistically the best start in franchise history.  They've outscored opponents by 71 points in the five wins.  Blowing out the Heat and Jazz on their home floors on the second night of back-to-backs should not be taken lightly.  The Jazz have beaten both the Suns and Cavs at home, while the Heat had been shredding opponents until running into Dwight Howard and company.  They scored just 36 points in the second half.

Houston is not missing Chandler Parsons one bit.  Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league as a 3-and-D specialist.  They are actually winning with defense this year because Ariza, Howard and Beverly are three of the better defenders in the league at their positions.  The Beverly-Parsons-Howard trio averaged 103.2 points allowed every 100 possessions last year.  It's down to 90.2 points every 100 possessions with the Beverly-Ariza-Howard trio thus far in 2014-15.

The Spurs may be the defending champs, but thus far, they look like anything but a championship contender.  Sure, they are 2-1 this season, but their two victories came by a combined three points with home wins over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  They lost at Phoenix in their only road game by a final of 89-94. 

San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after narrowly escaping with a victory over the Hawks last night.  It does not have as much depth as last year because key reserve Patty Mills is not expected to return until February due to a shoulder injury.  Marco Belinelli left with a groin injury against the Hawks last night and did not return.  Tiago Splitter returned last night, but aggravated a calf injury.  Both Belinelli and Splitter are questionable to play Thursday.

Houston has owned San Antonio the last season-plus.  It is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It has held San Antonio to less than 100 points in four of those five games, while scoring 104-plus in three of the last four.  I look for this series domination to continue Thursday night.

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference foes.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Rockets.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Houston.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Wizards UNDER 188.5

This is a rematch from the Eastern Conference Semifinals last year.  These Pacers and Wizards know each other inside and out after playing in the playoffs last year, and based on those six games, I can tell that this number has been set too high tonight.

Oddsmakers set every total between Washington and Indiana at 187 points or fewer in the playoffs last year.  Four of the six games went UNDER the total, and each of the last five games in the series saw 187 or fewer combined points.  From Game 6-back, they combined for 173, 181, 187, 148, 168 and 198 points.

The Pacers clearly aren't the same team as they were last year due to all the injuries they are dealing with.  They are without three starters in Paul George, George Hill and David West, and their offense has struggled as a result.

Indiana has has to play a slow-it-down style this year to try to avoid getting blown out.  It ranks just 27th in the league in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It is scoring just 91.2 points per game on 42.7% shooting.  Its lack of offensive firepower with all of these injuries is alarming.

Both Washington and Indiana have been strong defensively this season.  Indiana is allowing just 94.2 points per game on the season as it is nearly as strong defensively as it was a year ago even with these losses.  Washington is yielding 96.2 points per contest on the year.

Dating back further, eight of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 187 or fewer combined points.  Indiana is 34-18 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 36-19 to the UNDER in road games after playing a home game over the last three years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

I've seen enough from Boston this season to know it is an improved team over a year ago.  It opened the season with a blowout 121-105 home victory over Brooklyn before back-to-back road losses to Houston and Dallas, two of the best teams in the West.  It only lost 113-118 at Dallas last time out.

Jeff Green has really stepped up his play this year, averaging 23.0 points per game.  Avery Bradley (17.7), Jared Sullinger (13.7) and Kelly Olynyk (10.7) have all improved this year as well.  Having a healthy Rajon Rondo (8.0 PPG, 11.7 APG, 8.7 RPG) back this year has made a world of difference for this team.

While the Celtics are improved this year, this is more of a play against Toronto than anything.  I actually believe that the Raptors are one of the sleepers in the East, but they are in a very tough spot tonight. 

They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA.  They are already tired even this early in the season, and it will show tonight.  The Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days' rest.

Making matters worse for the Raptors is that they could be without both of their starting frontcourt players tonight.  Amir Johnson is out with an ankle injury, while Jonas Valunciunas is questionable after leaving Tuesday's game with a facial contusion.

The home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings between these teams.  Boston is 25-9 straight up in its last 34 home meetings with Toronto.  The Raptors are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Boston.  As you can see, home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3

Despite losses in each of their last two games and a 1-2 start to the season, I still believe the New Orleans Pelicans are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA in 2014-15.  They have lost their last two games against Western Conference powers Dallas and Memphis, but now they get a weak Eastern Conference team at home to get right tonight.

The Pelicans opened with a weak team from the East in Orlando and swiftly beat the Magic 101-84.  The problem for the Pelicans has been on offense, where they are only shooting 39.1% on the season.  Obviously, they aren't going to shoot this badly all season with the talented guys they have in the likes of Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans.

The biggest reason that the Pelicans are a much better team this year is the addition of Omer Asik at center, who combines with Davis to clean up the glass and alter shots.  Davis is averaging 13.3 boards and Asik is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game.  The Pelicans are 3rd in the league in offensive rebound rate, grabbing 31.8 percent of their misses.  These two will help control the focal point of the Charlotte offense, which is Al Jefferson inside.

I believe the Hornets came into the season way overvalued after making the playoffs last year.  That has shown as they have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS with their only victory coming against Milwaukee by a final of 108-106 in overtime at home.  Their only cover this season came by a half-point last time out at New York in a 93-96 loss.  Simply put, this team doesn't have the talent to match up with New Orleans.

The Pelicans have won six of their last eight meetings with the Bobcats/Hornets franchise.  In fact, Charlotte has only averaged 86.2 points and has topped 100 only once while going 2-8 all-time at New Orleans.

Charlotte is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 versus poor 3-point shooting teams that make 30% or less of their attempts.  The Hornets are 20-38 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.  Charlotte is 32-61 ATS in its last 93 against Southwest division opponents.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. 

The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes.  New Orleans is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast division opponents.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 trips to New Orleans.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Heat Battle of Unbeatens on Miami -1

The Miami Heat are showing tremendous value as a small home favorites over the Houston Rockets this season.  The Heat are on a mission to prove that they don't need Lebron James, and they are off to a good start by going 3-0 with wins over the likes of the Wizards, 76ers and Raptors.

Houston is off to a perfect 4-0 start itself that has it overvalued here.  The Rockets couldn't have faced a much softer schedule to this point as their four wins have come against the likes of the Lakers, Jazz, Celtics and 76ers.  They haven't proven anything yet against that schedule.

This is a very tough spot for the Rockets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning at Philadelphia 104-93 last night.  Plus, they could be caught looking ahead to their game against the defending champion Spurs on Thursday night.

Miami has won eight of its last nine meetings with Houston.  The Heat have won 14 of their last 18 home meetings with the Rockets as well.  Getting them as a small home favorite here in this tough spot for the Rockets is simply a gift from oddsmakers.

The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Mavericks UNDER 209

I believe the books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks Monday night.  I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER 209 points in a game that will likely see 200 or fewer combined points by game's end.

These are teams that have played contrasting styles thus far.  Dallas ranked 27th in the league in pace, averaging just 93.0 possessions per game.  Boston ranks 2nd in pace, average 102.8 possessions per contest.  Since this one is being played in Dallas, I look for the home team to control the pace, which will lead to a lower-scoring game.

This number has been inflated because both of these teams have averaged over 100 points per game offensively in the early going.  Dallas leads the league in offensive efficiency, but they won't be able to put up points at the rate they have thus far all season.  Boston clearly can't match the 121 points it put up on Brooklyn in the opener with any regularity, and that was evident in a 90-104 loss at Houston last time out.

The two meetings between Boston and Dallas last year saw 183 and 193 combined points.  Not counting overtime, the last 11 meetings between Boston and Dallas have seen 198 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER in this game pertaining to tonight's total set of 209.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Nets UNDER 192.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without their top two scorers from last season in Kevin Durant (32.0 PPG in 2013-14) and Russell Westbrook (21.8 PPG).  Until these two return, the Thunder are going to have trouble scoring points.  They are going to have to rely on their defense, which is still elite without these two.

In its first game without these two, Oklahoma City beat Denver at home by a final of 102-91 for 193 combined points.  Don't expect this team to put up 102 points without their two superstars because that performance was an aberration.  The defense was solid as expected in limiting the Nuggets to just 91 points on 43.7% shooting.

In fact, the defense has been very good all season.  The Thunder combined for 195 points with the Blazers, 183 points with the Clippers, and 193 points with the Nuggets.  They are giving up just 96.7 points per game on 42.5% shooting.  Their offense has been atrocious as they are scoring 93.7 points per game on 43.4% shooting.

Brooklyn bounced back from an awful 105-121 loss at Boston with a 102-90 win at Detroit last time out.  It has been without its best player in Brook Lopez for those two games, but he is expected to return tonight.  Lopez is their top rebounder and shot blocker and will certainly help them improve defensively upon his return.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder's last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder's last four road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Without Durant and Westbrook, there's going to be some value in backing the UNDER in OKC games going forward.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +10

I fully expect the Sacramento Kings to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  They didn't show that in their opener as they lost by 18 to Golden State and shot just 30.8% from the floor while committing 26 turnovers.

The Kings cleaned up their play last time out and beat Portland 103-94 as a 4.5-point underdog.  They still only shot 42% from the floor, but their defense held the Blazers to just 41% shooting.  They also committed just 10 turnovers as they put an emphasis on taking care of the ball.

This Kings team has plenty of talent to be competitive.  DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most underrated centers in the league as he's a 20 & 10 guy almost every night.  Rudy Gay, who scored 40 points against the Blazers, is still one of the best scorers in the game.

Darren Collison will be taking this game personal as he gets a chance to go against his former team.  He has been dynamite in two games this season.  He had 17 points, eight boards, eight assists and three steals in the win over the Blazers.  He is a solid point guard who, like Cousins, is under-appreciated.

I really have not been impressed with the Clippers in their first two games.  Their sloppy played has carried over from a 2-6 preseason.  Sure, they are 2-0 in the regular season, but they are fortunate to be unbeaten to this point and should not be laying double-digits to the Kings tonight.

The Clippers beat the Thunder 93-90 at home as a 13-point favorite.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and shouldn't have been able to hang around, but they did.  The Clippers also beat the Lakers 118-111 as 11.5-point favorites in a game that was tied with under two minutes to go.  The Lakers are arguably the least-talented team in the league this year.

Sacramento has played Los Angeles very tough on the road in recent years.  The Kings have only lost once to the Clippers by more than nine points in the past six meetings.  Sacramento is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Thunder UNDER 194

The Oklahoma City Thunder are without their two best players in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  Durant, who led the league in scoring last year, is out until at least December with a foot injury.  Westbrook suffered a fractured right hand against the Clippers in their last game and is expected to miss up to six weeks.

This Oklahoma City offense is going to be lost without Durant and Westbrook.  Durant averaged 32.0 points per game last year, while Westbrook put up 21.8 points per game.  The Thunder only had two other players who averaged double figures in Serge Ibaka (15.1) and Reggie Jackson (13.1) last year.  It's worth noting that Jackson and fellow guard Jeremy Lamb are questionable to play in this game as well with injuries.  They have each missed the first two games of the season.

Being lost on offense means that the Thunder will take a lot of time every possession trying to figure out how to get the ball in the basket.  That will lead to poor shots at the end of the shot clock.  Mark Brooks isn't a dumby, and he knows that his team's best chance to win without his two superstars is to limit the possessions and to make every game a defensive battle.  That's what he will do, starting with tonight's game against Denver.

The Thunder were already struggling offensively without Durant, which is no surprise.  They have averaged just 89.5 points per game on 41.8% shooting in their losses to the Blazers and Clippers in their first two games.  It's only going to get worse without their point guard out there in Westbrook.  This may be the worst offensive team in the league now.

Denver didn't exactly light up the scoreboard in its opener.  It beat Detroit 89-79 at home behind a very good effort defensively in allowing the Pistons to shoot just 36.9% from the floor while grabbing 65 rebounds.  The Nuggets figure to get a boost on defense this season with the return of a healthy JaVale McGee, who is one of the top shot-blockers in the league.

Oklahoma City is 16-4 to the UNDER in its last 20 home games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 16-6 to the UNDER in their last 22 games following a road loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Thunder's last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4-2 in Thunder's last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Detroit Pistons are 0-2 right now and undervalued as a result.  They played two tough road games against Western Conference opponents in Denver and Minnesota and were competitive in each.  Now, they head back to Detroit for the start of a four-game home stand against Brooklyn.

The Pistons went 5-2 in the preseason and are clearly going to be improved this season under new head coach Stan Van Gundy.  He has preached defense, and his team has responded in allowing an average of 93 points per game through their first two games against the offensive-minded Nuggets and Timberwolves.

The problem for the Pistons has been their offense, which is only averaging 85 points per game on a woeful 39.4% shooting.  A big contributing factor to that is the fact that they have been without their best scoring big man in Greg Monroe for the first two games as he has served a two-game suspension.  Monroe returns tonight and will give the Pistons a big lift on the offensive end.

Detroit will not only be better offensively because of Monroe's return, but also because it will be up against a Nets team that allowed 121 points and 55.7% shooting in a 16-point loss to the Celtics in their opener.  This Brooklyn team is a mess right now with the loss of Paul Pierce in the offseason and the injury to center Brook Lopez, who will miss this game with a foot injury.

The Pistons have a massive frontcourt featuring Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith.  Without Lopez, this trio should dominate not only on the offensive end, but on the glass on both ends of the floor.  The Nets are relying on Kevin Garnett, Mason Plumlee, Bojan Bogdanovic and Mirza Teletovic in their frontcourt.  This is a complete mismatch in Detroit's favor.

Detroit won three out of four meetings with Brooklyn last year, including 111-95 and 103-99 victories at home.  The Pistons also won on the road 109-97 on November 24th.  The Pistons scored 103-plus points in all four meetings with the Nets last season, and the Nets are worse off this year than they were last year, while the Pistons are improved.  The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +6

After an awful performance against the Golden State Warriors in their opener, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Sacramento Kings tonight.  That's why they are showing such great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Look for the Kings to come out very determined after getting embarrassed by the Warriors.  They shot just 30.8% from the field and committed a ridiculous 26 turnovers.  Things couldn't have gone worse in their 18-point loss.  Obviously, they aren't going to play that poorly again tonight.

Meanwhile, the betting public wants everything to do with the Blazers after their 106-89 home win over an Oklahoma City team that was playing without Kevin Durant.  That game didn't become a blowout until the 4th quarter as the Thunder actually had a 77-75 lead until the final period, where the Blazers outscored them 31-12.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Kings and Blazers.  Indeed, the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Sacramento has one of the most underrated home-court advantages year in and year out, and any time you can get the Kings as this big of a home dog you should usually take advantage, and we will tonight.

Plays against favorites (PORTLAND) - off a home win against a division rival, on Friday nights are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sacramento is 44-25 ATS in its last 69 home games after scoring 85 points or less.  The Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Sacramento is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +9.5

The Philadelphia 76ers lost to Indiana on the road by a final of 91-103 in the opener, failing to cover the 7.5-point spread.  They held a 51-48 lead at halftime, but did not play nearly as well after intermission.  I believe they are showing value here in their second game of the season after that performance as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

I also believe the betting public is overreacting on the Bucks' solid performance at Charlotte where they lost 106-108 (OT) despite being an 8-point underdog.  They also blew a lead in that game and allowed the Bobcats to come back and win.  The Bucks simply have no business being this heavily favored against anyone, and there's value in the 76ers as a result.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the last couple seasons, which is another reason why I believe this 9.5-point spread is too much.  Indeed, eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 10 points or fewer, and seven of those have been decided by 9 points or less.

The 76ers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Philadelphia is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. 

Simply put, Philadelphia is undervalued after failing to cover against Indiana, while Milwaukee is overvalued after covering against an overrated Charlotte squad.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 201

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one as it's highly likely that neither team surpasses the 100-point barrier.

Utah was one of the worst offensive teams in the league last year.  It lost 93-104 to Houston in its opener and struggled once again offensively.  Those teams only combined for 197 points despite the fact that Houston shot 51.9% from the field and 14-of-27 from 3-point range.

Dallas played a good game at San Antonio but fell 100-101 for 201 combined points.  This game was played at a slow pace as the Spurs shot 52.9% from the field and 14-of-28 from 3-point range, yet still managed just 101 points.

Dallas is not going to be pushing the tempo as much this year without Jose Calderon at the point.  That's especially the case early because they have several new faces, and it's going to take some time to gel offensively.  The defense will be better this year with the arrival of Tyson Chandler, and newcomer Chandler Parsons is a plus-defender as well.

Utah and Dallas played four times last year.  The UNDER went 3-1 in the four meetings with combined scores of 178, 209, 184 and 196 points.  So, they averaged 191.8 combined points per game last year, which is nearly 10 points less than tonight's total, so there's clearly some value with the UNDER based on that alone.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - poor defensive team from last season that allowed a 45.5% shooting percentage or worse are 50-18 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7

I look for the Detroit Pistons to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  I really like the hiring of Stan Van Gundy, who has been one of the most successful head coaches this league has seen.  He owns a .641 winning percentage in eight season with Miami and Orlando.

Van Gundy has plenty of talent to work with this year with Andre Drummond, Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings leading the way.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a real scorer and should blossom in his second season.  I also like the additions of D.J. Augustin and Caron Butler as role players who will fit in nicely. 

The Pistons thrived in the preseason, going 5-2, and I look for them to carry over that success to the regular season opener.  The Nuggets, meanwhile, went just 2-6 in the preseason and are out of whack.  They have several players returning from injury, and Brian Shaw just has no chemistry with this team coming into the year.

Three key players for the Nuggets (Danilo Gallinari, J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson) all underwent surgery to repair torn ACLs.  Gallinari never saw the floor last year, while JaVale McGee played in just five games.  I believe it's going to take a while for these guys to gel and actually feel comfortable about returning from such serious injuries on the court.

Van Gundy is 357-296 ATS in all games as a head coach.  Van Gundy is 81-55 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 in all games he has coached.  The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Knicks ESPN National TV KNOCKOUT on Chicago -4

The Chicago Bulls are going to be the most improved team in the league this year.  It starts with Game 1 tonight against the New York Knicks.  I fully expect the Bulls to go into Madison Square Garden and come away with a blowout victory.

Derrick Rose returns after playing in just 49 of 230 games over the past three seasons.  The Bulls also added Pau Gasol, European start Nikola Mirotic and college super scorer Doug McDermott to their roster this offseason.  They will now be one of the best offensive teams in the league while once again battling to be the top defense in the NBA as well.

The Knicks are in full-on rebuilding mode after missing the playoffs last year with a 37-45 record.  The Phil Jackson hire will help them long-term, but in the intermediate this simply is not a very good team even with Carmelo Anthony.  They lost Tyson Chandler, who was the only player on this team aside from Iman Shumpert who is a plus-defender.

New York is really going to struggle defensively this year without Chandler, but the bigger concern early is going to be the offense.  Jackson has hired Derek Fisher to run his patented Triangle Offense.  This system takes some time to get used to, and the Knicks will be all out of sorts in the opener, just as they were in the preseason when they went 3-4.

Chicago has gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine meetings with New York.  The Knicks are 3-13 ATS in home games in the first half of the season dating back to last year.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Southeast Division ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -4

The Miami Heat will be out to prove that they do not need Lebron James to compete for an Eastern Conference Title.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder all season, starting with their opener against the Washington Wizards Wednesday.

The Heat signed Chris Bosh to a max deal to be their go-to guy this season.  Go back and check his stats in Toronto to find out what he is capable of as the lead guy, because he is still in his prime and will put up huge numbers this year. 

Dwyane Wade wants to play in all 82 games to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, and that he can be a lead guy as well.  I also love the addition of Luol Deng, who is a real team player who can contribute a lot on both end of the floor.

Washington was one of the biggest surprise teams in the league last year as it came out of nowhere and won a playoff series for the first time since 2004-05.   Now, I believe the Wizards are way overvalued heading into 2014-15 because of it, especially due to key losses and injuries.

Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league.  He defends the opposing team's best player, and he also knocked down a ton of 3's for the Wizards last season.  Ariza is now a key cog in Houston, replacing the departed Chandler Parsons in the Rockets' starting lineup.

Washington is expected to be without starting shooting guard Bradley Beal, starting forward Nene, and top reserve Martell Webster for the opener.  In Nene, Beal and Ariza, the Wizards will be down three starters from last year.  They simply aren't going to live up to the hype in the opener due to all of these injuries and personnel losses.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Miami.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Miami has won each of its last four home meetings with Washington.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They won a franchise-record 48 games and the Atlantic Division title.  They should be just as good if not better in 2014-15, and I believe they are undervalued here as only a 4.5-point favorite over the Atlanta Hawks.

Kyle Lowry signed a new $48 million deal this offseason after averaging 17.9 points, 7.4 assists and 4.7 rebounds last year.  DeMar DeRozan was an All-Start.  Toronto kept most of its roster in tact, but it also added Lou Williams and James Johnson to the team.  They'll serve as great role players as Williams is instant offense off the bench, while Johnson can do a little bit of everything.

Atlanta did make its seventh straight postseason appearance last year, which is the longest active streak in the Eastern Conference.    However, they barely snuck in, and I don't believe they did enough this offseason to improve their team.  All they did was get John Salmons and Thobo Sefolosha, who are two players far past their primes who won't contribute much.

The Raptors looked as good as anyone in the preseason as they put together a league-best 6-1 record.  I look for them to carry over that success in the regular season.  I truly believe that they are the most underrated team in the Eastern Conference this year and fully capable of giving any team a run for their money.

The home team went a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings between the Hawks and Raptors last season with the home team winning by 5 or more points in all four games.  I look for Toronto to make it five straight wins and covers for the home team in this series.  Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.

20* Mavericks/Spurs NBA Season Opener on Dallas +4

I look for the Dallas Mavericks to spoil the ring ceremony of the San Antonio Spurs tonight and to win this opener outright.  I'll be taking the points for some added insurance.

Dallas wants revenge after losing in seven games to the Spurs in the opening round of the playoffs last year.  They played the Spurs tougher than anyone in the playoffs, and I believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into 2014-15.

I absolutely love what Dallas did in the offseason.  It brought back Tyson Chandler, who was the defensive force who helped them win the NBA Title a few years back.  It also signed Chandler Parsons from the Rockets, who is one of the most efficient players in the NBA who can do a little bit of everything.  Jameers Nelson, Devin Harris & Raymond Felton will all help combine to replace Jose Calderon at the point.

I don't put a ton of stock into the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Spurs went 2-5 in the preseason.  They even lost overseas to Alba Berlin in their preseason opener.  I look for them to start the regular season slow as well as they just won't have that same fire they did last year after losing the NBA Finals the year before.

One big development is that Kawhi Leonard, the 2014 NBA Finals MVP, won't be suiting up tonight.  He averaged 23.7 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 68.6 percent in the final three games against the Heat.  He is dealing with an eye infection that has kept him out for over two weeks.  Leonard is worth the most wins above replacement of all the Spurs this season.

Leonard isn't the only Spur who is banged up right now.  They will also be without starting center Tiago Splitter and key bench player Patty Mills.  Splitter has a calf injury and will be out for this game and possibly a few more, while Mills isn't expected to return until February due to a torn rotator cuff.

Dallas is 16-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  Dallas is a sensational 50-20 ATS in its last 70 road games overall.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Miami +5.5

While the Miami Heat have been atrocious the past two games, I believe this line is inflated because of it.  With their season at stake, I look for the Heat to fight until the end tonight and to stay within 5.5 points of the Spurs, possibly pulling off the upset.

This is a veteran Heat team that is prepared better than any other team in the league for this win-or-go-home situation.  Look for Lebron James and company to put together a game plan that will give them an excellent chance to win this Game 5 and send the series back to Miami.

Miami is 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or less rebounds over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 24-9 ATS in road games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1996.  The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Sunday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

I certainly understand the fact that the Heat have not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs in any of the past two years.  However, they haven't played a team as good as this 2013-14 San Antonio squad.  The Spurs are even better than they were a year ago, and they have made some nice adjustments from the way they played the Heat in the Finals last year.

Last year, the Spurs would go under screens and dare Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot the outside shot.  Now, they are mixing it up, switching screens about half the time to give those two stars a different look, and it's working.  Their transition defense has also been much better than it was a year ago.

San Antonio comes into this game knowing that they can essentially win the series with a victory tonight, and it will not be lacking any motivation because of it.  This team is gleaming with confidence after a marvelous shooting display in Game 3, and while I do not expect that kind of shooting performance again, I believe they will be good enough to stay within 5.5 points, likely pulling off the upset.

Miami is 4-12 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.  San Antonio is 41-22 ATS after scoring 110 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 53-25-1 ATS in its last 79 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs in Game 4 Thursday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The San Antonio Spurs represent my strongest play of the entire NBA Finals tonight as a 4.5-point road underdog in Game 3 against the Miami Heat.  I look for them to not only cover, but to win this game outright to re-gain home-court advantage in the series.

The Spurs have been the best road team in the league this season, going 33-16 away from home while outscoring opponents by an average of 5.2 points per game.  This veteran bunch will not be intimidated one bit by going into Miami to try and come away with a victory in Game 3.

The Heat have been unbelievable when coming off a loss this season, but not so hot when coming off a win.  They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games following a S.U. win.  Miami is also 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a road win, and 14-26 ATS in its last 40 home games after playing its last game on the road.

San Antonio is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a home loss.  The Spurs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots.  San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on one days' rest.  The Spurs are 52-25-1 ATS in their last 78 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 199

After the Heat and Spurs went OVER in Game 1, I believe there is some value to backing the UNDER in Game 2.  These teams have had two days off since Game 1 to make adjustments, which I strong believe will favor the defenses.

Miami is  9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 26-11 (70.3%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -4

The San Antonio Spurs fought hard to get back to this position.  They won the league's best record during the regular season to get home-court advantage throughout, then made their way through the Western Conference, which is arguably as strong as it's ever been.

Miami kind of went through the motions during the regular season, allowing the Pacers to take the No. 1 seed without even earning it.  The Heat have then faced a very weak Eastern Conference to get here.  They won't be ready for the challenge that's coming in Game 1 like the Spurs will be.

The Spurs are 41-10 at home this season.  They have won eight straight playoff home games all by 6 points or more.  In fact, their last seven playoff home games have resulted in victories by 17-plus points each.  They have won 15 of their last 19 home meetings with the Heat.

 San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Spurs are 51-24-1 ATS in their last 76 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs in Game 1 Thursday.

15* Spurs/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +4

The San Antonio Spurs remember when they went up 2-0 only to lose the next four games to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals in 2012.  They have been playing with extra motivation this series because of it, and while the home team has won every game thus far, I look for that to change in Game 6 tonight.

The Spurs know what they need to do to beat the Thunder after running their game plan to perfection in a blowout victory in Game 5.  They have been stagnant on offense in their two road games, but they got back to moving the ball in Game 5.  Look for them to really put an emphasis on ball movement in Game 6, because when they move it like they are supposed to, they are virtually unbeatable.

Plays against home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Spurs are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.  San Antonio is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots this season.  The Spurs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take the Spurs Saturday.

15* Pacers/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons.  After losing the first two games in Miami this series, I look for the Pacers to give the Heat a run for their money in Game 6 to try and extend this series and send it back to Indiana for a Game 7.

This has been a much closer series than most realize.  The Pacers won Game 1, were tied with just over a minute remaining in Game 2, and blew a 15-point lead in Miami in Game 3.  I like the fight this team showed in Game 5, and I believe it will carry over into Game 6 with their season at stake. 

After all, the Pacers have played their best this postseason when their back has been against the wall.  They won Game 6 in Atlanta when trailing 3-2, and finished the Hawks off in Game 7.  After falling behind 0-1 to Washington, they won three straight and eventually won in six games.  They are still a solid 5-3 on the road in these playoffs.

Miami is 13-26 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots this season.  Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.  Take the Pacers in Game 6 Friday.

15* Thunder/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio -5

The San Antonio Spurs head back home for Game 5 of this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is a very resilient Spurs bunch that knows the importance of this game and does not want a repeat of two years ago when they blew a 2-0 lead to the Thunder and lost 2-4.

The Spurs are 40-10 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points per game.  The home team has won all four meetings in this series thus far.  The Spurs won their first two home games by a combined 52 points.

I look for Greg Popovich to make the necessary adjustments to put his team in a much better position to win tonight.  The ball will move quickly on offense, and also look for Manu Ginobli to play more with the starters because he can break down a defense.

The Spurs are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 home playoff games.  San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games this postseason.  The Spurs are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take the Spurs in Game 5 Thursday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers will have some fight left in them as they head back home for Game 5.  This easily could be a 2-2 series right now, and knowing that they won in Miami in the playoffs each of the last two seasons, they have to have some hope that they can come back and win the series.

"I think anytime you lose three in a row in the playoffs, it shakes your confidence some," coach Frank Vogel said. "But we can't worry about that. All we've got to worry about is coming back and winning Game 5 and giving us an opportunity to come down here and win one game. We've won one game in each playoff series that we've played here the last two years. We should have confidence that we can do that."

The Pacers won Game 1 and were tied with Miami in the closing minutes in Game 2, but faltered down the stretch.  They also blew a 15-point lead at Miami in Game 3, so it's clear that they have proven they can play with this team.  They just need a few more things to go their way tonight, and I believe they will.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 (65.1%) ATS since 1996.  Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams get together as the home team has gone 11-1 (92%) straight up in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Pacers in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs played their worst game of the playoffs in Game 3, yet they still only lost by single-digits.  They relaxed a little after winning the first two games by a combined 56 points, and they ended up shooting just 39.6% from the floor in that 97-106 Game 3 loss.

Everyone wants to be quick to credit the return of Serge Ibaka as the reason the Thunder won, but I believe it was more to do with self-inflicted wounds than anything.  Tony Parker has his worst game of the series, and when he doesn't have it going, the team tends to struggle offensively.

I look for the Spurs to come back highly motivated tonight realizing that they need to take back control of this series after what happened in the 2012 conference finals.  They blew a 2-0 lead and lost the next four games to the Thunder that year, and they will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight because of it.

San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Roll with the Spurs in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6.5

It's now or never for the Indiana Pacers, who cannot afford to lose this Game 4 against the Miami Heat if they want to win this series.  I look for them to lay it all on the line to get the victory, and for it to be enough to at least stay within this 6.5-point spread.

Sure, Indiana blew a golden opportunity in Game 3 after leading most of the way in that contest.  Miami simply got hot in the 4th quarter, and Ray Allen could not miss.  The Heat have shot at least 50% in every game thus far, so they have clearly had a lot right go for them.

That is saying something considering the Pacers are the top defensive team in the league this season.  Indeed, they rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and I fully expect their best effort on that end of the floor in this one.

The Pacers are 5-2 straight up on the road in the playoffs, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet Indiana in Game 4 Monday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5

The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder played in a very high-scoring Game 1 that saw 227 combined points.  That final tally has inflated the total in both Game 2 and Game 3.  I took advantage by backing the UNDER in Game 2, and I'll take advantage again today in Game 3.

The fact of the matter is that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league.  Indeed, the Spurs rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder rank 5th at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

This has been a low-scoring series between these familiar foes, who met in the Western Conference Finals in 2012 as well.  In fact, eight of the last 11 meetings have seen 206 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Spurs last 17 games following an ATS win.    The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 54-21 (72%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* Eastern Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play in the Eastern Conference Finals in Game 3 of this series.  They are catching too many points against the Miami Heat in this one, and I'll take advantage by taking all the points I can get.

Paul George is expected to play Saturday, which is a huge bonus for the Pacers because he is by far the most important player on the team.  He is averaging 21.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists in the playoffs, and a team-high 41.3 minutes per game to boot.

As I've stated before, the Pacers match up really well with the Heat because George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as any duo in the league.  They ranks 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  The Heat rank 11th in that same category at 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

Indiana has won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons in 2012 and 2013.  It has played its best basketball away from home in the postseason, going 5-1 through the first two rounds in road games.  It was an underdog in four of those contests, all of which it won outright.

The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Miami is 7-18 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.  Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Indiana is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on three or more days of rest.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR Thunder/Spurs on UNDER 211.5

After an extremely high-scoring Game 1 with 227 combined points in a 122-105 San Antonio victory, I look for the defense to be much sharper tonight in Game 2 of this series.  That was the case in the Miami/Indiana series, and I expect the same thing to happen in this one as well.

After all, that Game 1 total was more of an aberration than anything, especially when you look at how these teams have fared against each other recently.  Seven of the last 10 meetings between the Spurs and Thunder have seen 206 or fewer combined points.

These were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  Indeed, the Spurs ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder ranked 5th, allowing 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

The UNDER is 14-6 in Spurs last 20 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 2 No-Doubt Rout on Indiana +3

I'm taking the Indiana Pacers for many of the same reasons I backed them in Game 1.  But most importantly, I'm backing them because they know how important retaining home-court advantage is, and that's why they will not have a letdown after throttling the Heat 107-96 in Game 1.

Sure, I realize the fact that Miami has not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs over the past two seasons, but you also have to realize that nobody other than perhaps San Antonio has played the Heat as tough as the Pacers in the postseason.  They aren't afraid of Miami because they know they can beat them.

Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  In fact, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.  Indiana has gone 39-10 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game.  Miami is just 25-21 on the road this year.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league.  It ranked 1st in defensive efficiency during the regular season, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  To compare, Miami ranked 11th in the same category, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.  Paul George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade better than any tandem in the league.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-6 (86%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Pacers Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 1 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209

I look for a low-scoring affair between these familiar foes in Game 1 of this series Monday.  This is a rematch from the 2012 Western Conference Finals in which the Thunder won 4-2.  The familiarity will make points hard to come by in the opener tonight.

These were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  Indeed, the Spurs ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, giving up 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder ranked 5th in defensive efficiency, yielding 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

One big key here is that Serge Ibaka is expected to be out for the remainder of the regular season.  While he is a solid defender, it will hurt the Thunder a lot more on the other end of the floor.  Ibaka averaged 15.1 points per game in the regular season and can make an 18-foot jumper with consistency.  That helps spread the floor, and the Thunder do not have another forward/center that can make that shot.  They will be in trouble offensively because of it.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 56-29 (65.9%) since 1996.  Seven of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 206 or fewer combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +3

The Indiana Pacers worked hard during the regular season to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They did so looking ahead to a potential Eastern Conference Finals rematch with the Miami Heat.  Starting with Game 1, I look for them to put that home court to use.

Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams have gotten together recently.  Indeed, the home team won all four meetings during the regular season.  Dating back to the playoffs last year, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.

Indiana has gone 38-10 at home this season.  It is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game at home.  Miami is a mediocre 25-20 on the road this year, clearly proving to be beatable away from home.

The Pacers were the best team in the league defensively this season.  They ranked first in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  To compare, Miami ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

When you can play defense, you give yourself a chance to win in the playoffs.  No team is better suited to stop Lebron James and Dwyane Wade than the Pacers.  Paul George can contain James, while Lance Stephenson does an excellent job on Wade.

The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days' rest.  I look for Indiana to protect its home court in Game 1 as the home team wins a 9th straight meeting between these teams.  Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Thunder/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 212

This series has gotten much more low-scoring as it has gone on.  Game 4 and Game 5 have been the two lowest-scoring games of the series.  The Thunder and Clippers combined for 200 points in Game 4 and 209 points in Game 5.

As teams become more familiar with one another over the course of a series, it favors the defenses.  Both of these teams know what the other is trying to do now.  OKC wants to isolate Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, while LAC wants to run pick and roll with Chris Paul.

The defenses have clearly made the adjustments in these past two games based off of shooting percentages.  The Clippers shot 41.9% in Game 4 and 43.2% in Game 5.  The Thunder shot 44% in Game 4 and 42.9% in Game 5.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less are 36-13 (73.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers +8

It took three games to figure it out, but the Portland Trail Blazers now have an answer for Tony Parker.  After letting him go wild in the first three games of this series, they held him to just 14 points, one assist and three turnovers in a 103-92 Game 4 victory.

Parker had been averaging 26 points and more than eight assists in the first three games of the series.  The difference was Nicolas Batum, who was charged with guarding Parker the entire game.  The fellow Frenchman's length gave Parker fits and allow the Blazers to avoid the sweep.

I believe Portland legitimately has a chance to win this Game 5 outright tonight now that it has found the right defense for Parker.  The Spurs are overvalued due to four straight double-digit victories prior to that Game 4 loss.  They have no business being an 8-point favorite here against a Blazers team fighting for their playoff lives.

The Blazers are 11-1 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season.  The Spurs are 5-13 ATS in home games off two straight games where they had 10 or less offensive rebounds this season.  San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Thunder Game 5 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have all of the momentum heading into Game 5.  They just erased a 16-point deficit with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 by a final of 101-99.  After looking dead to the water in this series, they now have new life and are essentially free rolling.

All of the pressure is back on Oklahoma City, which got 67 combined points from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and Game 4.  The Thunder also held the Clippers to 41.9% shooting in that contest, and they STILL could not win.  This team has to be baffled right now and feeling the pressure.

The Clippers clearly have the best coach in this series, and it's not even close.  I like what he did in putting the smaller Chris Paul on Durant, double-teaming him and forcing him to shoot outside jump shots.  I look for them to use that strategy again in Game 5, and Durant will either have to force shots or pass the ball.  Either way, that works in Los Angeles' favor.  Oklahoma City doesn't have the role players that can beat the Clippers.

Doc Rivers is 27-8 ATS in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams that make 80% or more of their shots in all games he has coached.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 meetings in Oklahoma City.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* Heat/Nets Game 4 No-Brainer on Brooklyn +3

The Brooklyn Nets proved that they weren't going to go away quietly by absolutely dominating in Game 3.  They crushed the Miami Heat 104-90 while shooting 52.8% from the field and outrebounding the Heat 50-30 for the game.

I look for them to come back with a ton of confidence in Game 4 off such a brilliant effort in a must-win situation.  This team obviously has the belief now that it can beat the Heat in the playoffs after sweeping them 4-0 during the regular season.

Brooklyn did play well all season at home, going 31-14 inside of the Barclays Center.  Miami has been beatable on the road, posting a 24-20 record away from home.  So, it's no surprise that the home team has won each of the first three meetings in this series.

The Nets are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Monday.

20* Thunder/Clippers Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to even this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is essentially a must-win situation for the Clippers, who cannot afford to fall behind 1-3 if they want to win this series.

Essentially nothing went right for the Clippers in Game 3, yet they still only lost by six points by a final of 112-118.  They were out-shot 55.7% to 45.2% and outrebounded 42-52.  Usually, those two numbers would lead to a blowout for the other team. 

So, considering they can't play any worse, I like their chances of bouncing back with a blowout victory in Game 4.  The Clippers are 37-9 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game.

Los Angeles is 16-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Clippers are 14-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Los Angeles is 20-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Nets/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 189.5

This entire season series has been pretty low scoring between the Brookyn Nets and Miami Heat.  I look for that trend to continue in Game 3 tonight now that these teams are very familiar with each other as this will be their 7th meeting of the season.

I look for Game 3 to take on a similar tone to Game 2, which was defense, defense, defense.  Miami beat Brooklyn 94-82 for 176 combined points.  In fact, each of the last five meetings this season have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

Brooklyn's only chance to beat Miami is to slow it down and play at a snail's pace.  That's what it had success doing in the regular season, and playing at home in Game 3, I look for it to control the tempo in this one.  The Nets rank 25th in the league in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.  Miami ranks 27th in pace at 93.3 possessions per game.

Erik Spoelstra is 33-13 to the UNDER in road games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread as the coach of Miami.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Heat's last 16 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Nets last six Conference Semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pacers/Wizards Game 3 No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5

Oddsmakers have set the line in this game like this is an evenly-matched series.  Indiana was only a 4 to 4.5-point favorite in Games 1 and 2 at home. Now they're a 4.5-point dog on the road in Game 3.  I believe the Pacers are the better team in this series, and I'll back them in Game 3 because of it.

Roy Hibbert came alive with 28 points and nine rebounds in a Game 2 victory.  Paul George had taken him out on a fishing boat the day prior, and it really showed that he and the team had his back.  Now, with Hibbert back on board, this is going to be a scary team the rest of the way.

Indiana has played its best when it has needed to on the road thus far in the playoffs.  In fact, it took two out of three road games from Atlanta last series, which was a place that the Pacers simply could not win for years.  I believe it gets Game 3 on the road tonight to regain home-court advantage.

The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Randy Wittman is 28-52 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less in all games he has coached.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Friday.

20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192

These plays go hand in hand.  I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.

Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out.  It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto.  They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.

I look for those roles to be reversed tonight.  The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series.  This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.

Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.

Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.

Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer.  As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.

Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami.  The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996.  Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.