15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 205

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Washington Wizards. I look for an absolute shootout for four quarters as the final combined score of this one sails way OVER the number.

Minnesota ranks 1st in the league in pace at 102.6 possessions per game. It is also 10th in the league in offensive efficiency at 103.5 points per 100 possessions. Washington likes to play at a fast tempo as well, making for the perfect storm. The Wizards rank 12th in the league in pace at 98.9 possessions per game.

The Timberwolves are putting up 108.5 points per game on the season. Washington has been solid offensively as well, averaging 100.0 points per game. Neither team has played well on the other end. The Timberwolves are giving up 100.2 points per game, while the Wizards are yielding 104.6 points per contest.

Washington is 9-1 to the OVER in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last two seasons. Minnesota is a perfect 10-0 to the OVER off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. Washington is 10-1 to the OVER in home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Grizzlies/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -8.5

The Los Angeles Clippers want revenge in a big way tonight as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Grizzlies last season, but that was largely aided by an injury to Blake Griffin. It's payback time tonight ladies and gents.

The Clippers have looked very sharp of late, winning seven of their last nine games overall while going 6-3 ATS in the process. Offensively, they cannot be stopped, averaging 110.0 points per game on 48.6% shooting. The Clippers are 5-0 at home this year, putting up a ridiculous 118.6 points per game.

Memphis is clearly down this season, opening 5-5 while continuing to struggle offensively. It is averaging just 94.3 points per game overall, including 91.6 on the road where it is 2-3 on the year. This is a very tough spot for the Grizzlies to boot. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Grizzlies are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The home team has won five of the past six meetings with four of those victories coming by double-digits. Roll with the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +9

This is a home-and-home situation for the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors. These teams just played at Golden State Saturday night with the Warriors coming away with a 102-88 home victory. I look for the Jazz to return the favor two nights later and to easily stay within this 9-point spread with an excellent chance to pull off the upset.

Utah has been playing much better of late after a horrendous start. It has gone 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, beating New Orleans 111-105 as a 2.5-point home underdog in the process. It also stayed within its 10-point spread against San Antonio in a 9-point loss.

There's no question that the Jazz are going to be the more motivated team heading into this one. I normally look to back the team that lost the first game in a home-and-home situation, especially if their loss was on the road in the first game. The oddsmakers giving us 9 points to back a team in revenge mode in this situation is simply a gift.

Utah has won four of its last six meetings with Golden State. The Warriors are just 2-3 on the road this season after going 19-22 on the road last year. Golden State is 3-13 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three seasons. Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take the Jazz Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Kings UNDER 189.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings both play at extremely slow paces. As a result, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle when these teams square off Sunday.

Memphis ranks 27th in the league in pace at 94.5 possessions per game. Sacramento is tied with Memphis for 27th, also averaging 94.5 possessions per contest.

Making matters worse for both teams is that neither has been efficient offensively this year. Sacramento is 20th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 99.0 points per 100 possessions. Memphis is even worse, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency at 97.5 points per 100 possessions.

The Grizzlies are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER off a road win over the last two years. The UNDER is 17-8 in Grizzlies last 25 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 18-7-2 in Kings last 27 games following a ATS loss. Bet the UNDER in this game.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cavaliers/Wizards UNDER 196

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards are two of the most inept offensive teams in the league in 2013-14. They both rank right in the middle of the pack in terms of pace with Washington 12th at 99.2 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 14th with 97.1 possessions per game.

Neither team has been very efficient offensively this season. Washington ranks 20th in offensive efficiency with 99.0 points per 100 possessions, while Cleveland is a woeful 29th in offensive efficiency at 92.0 points per 100 possessions. Only Utah has been worse.

Looking at recent meetings between Washington and Cleveland, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these teams. Each of the last five meetings have seen 187 or fewer combined points with an average of 182.4 combined points/game during that span. That's nearly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 7-0 in the Wizards last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Throw in the fact that the UNDER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams, and we have a combined 21-0 system backing the UNDER in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 194

Both Portland and Boston play at slower paces than the average NBA team. Portland ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 95.8 possessions per game. Boston ranks 18th in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.

I look for this game to be played at a snail's pace, which would be nothing new to when these teams have gotten together recently. Each of the last four meetings between the Blazers and Celtics have seen 190 or fewer combined points.

In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 194 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 8-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 194, which dates back to the 2008 season.

Boston is 13-3 to the UNDER In home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 6-2 in Celtics last eight games following a loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bobcats/Cavaliers UNDER 190

The Charlotte Bobcats and Cleveland Cavaliers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This will be their second meetings of the season, with their first resulting in a 90-84 home win by Charlotte for 174 combined points. I look for a similar low-scoring affair in the rematch.

Charlotte ranks 26th in the league in pace, averaging just 95.0 possessions per game. Cleveland is right in the middle of the pack at 15th, averaging 97.6 possessions per game.

Not only are both offenses playing at slow paces, but they are two of the least-efficient units in the NBA as well. Charlotte ranks 28th in offensive efficiency at 94.7, while Cleveland is 29th at 92.7. These numbers represent the amount of points each team scores per 100 possessions.

Mike Browns is 15-4 to the UNDER versus terrible 3 point shooting teams who make less than 30% of their attempts in all games he had coached. The UNDER is 59-26-2 in Bobcats last 87 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 6-0 in Cavaliers last six after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last seven Friday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +5

While the Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing to the Clippers last night, I don't look for that to be much of a factor in this one. That's because the Thunder had two days off before last night's game, so they should still be fresh and ready to go. They'll also be motivated following just their second loss of the season.

Golden State is really starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers. It should not be a 5-point favorite in this match-up against what I feel is a better all-around team in Oklahoma City. The only good win the Warriors have this season came at Minnesota, but their other four wins have come against the likes of the Lakers, Kings, 76ers and Pistons.

Oklahoma City has simply owned Golden State in recent meetings. The Thunder have won seven of their last eight meetings with the Warriors with their only loss coming by exactly 5 points. There is clearly some value here with the Thunder as a 5-point underdog given the recent history. Plus, I expect this one to go right down to the wire, so I'd much rather take the points than give them up.

Scott Brooks is a sensational 107-62 ATS after one or more consecutive losses as the coach of Oklahoma City. Golden State is 2-13 ATS in home games after leading its previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days rest. Roll with Oklahoma City Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +6.5

The Phoenix Suns have been the most underrated teams in the league in the early going. They have opened 5-2 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread through their first seven games of the season. They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as a nice-sized underdog at Portland tonight.

When you look the two losses that Phoenix has suffered this season, it's easy to see that it is legit. It lost at Oklahoma City 96-103 as a 12.5-point underdog, and at San Antonio 96-99 as a 13-point dog. It has won its other five games, including a 104-91 triumph over Portland to open the season.

This is a very balanced Phoenix team that features eight players who are averaging 22 or more minutes per game. Eric Bledsoe has been one of the most valuable players in the league to this point, averaging 20.9 points, 7.3 assists and 1.9 steals per game. He is running the show and proving that he was worth the big offseason trade.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, first half of the season are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Phoenix is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 207

The Lakers and Nuggets both play at very fast paces, and I look for a shootout tonight between these teams because of it. The Lakers rank 2nd in the league in pace with 102.8 possessions per game. The Nuggets aren't far behind, ranking 11th at 100.0 possessions per contest.

One big factor here that is getting overlooked is that Denver is without its best defensive player in JaVale McGee. Without his presence on the inside defensively, and his lack of offense on the other end, this is going to allow for more points being scored for both teams.

When you look at the recent history between the Lakers and Nuggets, it's easy to see that this number has been set too low. Los Angeles and Denver have combined for 227, 217, 240 and 225 points in their last four meetings, respectively. That's an average of 227.3 points per game, which is roughly 20 points more than tonight's posted total of 207.

The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 7-1 in Lakers last 8 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. The OVER is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The OVER is 7-2 in Nuggets last 9 games when playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this series. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Celtics UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Charlotte Bobcats and Boston Celtics Wednesday. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a very low-scoring affair between two of the worst offensive teams in the league.

Both teams play at slower than normal paces. Charlotte ranks 25th in the league at 95.1 possessions per game. Boston ranks 17th at 96.8 possessions per game. Worse yet, Charlotte ranks 28th in offensive efficiency, while Boston ranks 20th in offensive efficiency.

Looking at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Boston and Charlotte have combined for 193 or less points in each of their last five meetings. Dating back further, the Celtics and Bobcats have combined for 193 or fewer points in 11 of their last 12 meetings. That makes for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 193.

Charlotte is 15-3 to the UNDER in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 58-26-2 in Bobcats last 86 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Washington Wizards +6

After losing by a final of 105-106 at Oklahoma City on Sunday, the Washington Wizards really showed what they are capable of this season. They have rebounded nicely following an 0-3 start, and following that 1-point loss, I look for them to go give Dallas everything it wants and more tonight.

The Mavericks are in a huge letdown spot here. They have a game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck, and it's only human nature for them to be looking ahead to that contest. They won't come to play with their best effort because of it.

The Wizards are getting a ton of balance this season. They have five players averaging 13.5 points per game or more. You have to remember that Marcin Gortat was traded here just before the season, so it has taken him a few games to get accustomed to the system. He has played well in spite of it, averaging 13.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Washington is 13-3 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Wizards are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. Western Conference opponents. Take Washington Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -7.5

The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to their 2-3 start. I believe their 97-73 home victory over Utah on Friday was a more telling sign up what this team is capable, and I fully expect the Bulls to be one of the best teams in the league from here-forward.

Chicago has now had two full days to prepare for Cleveland. In fact, this will only be the 3rd game in 9 days for the Bulls, so they'll be well rested and ready to go. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers will be playing their 7th game in 11 days, so this is certainly a tired team right now.

This has been a one-sided series in recent years to say the least. Chicago has gone 10-1 in its last 11 meetings with Cleveland, and it is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with the Cavaliers. In fact, the Bulls have won nine of their last 10 meetings with Cleveland by 9-plus points.

The Cavaliers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games. The Cavaliers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Throw in the 9-1 system where the Bulls have won nine of 10 vs. Cleveland by nine or more points, and we have a combined 34-3 system backing Chicago in this one. Roll with the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics tonight. These teams just played each other on November 8 three days ago with the Celtics coming away with a 91-89 road victory for 180 combined points.

I was on the UNDER in that game, and I'll certainly be on the UNDER in the rematch tonight. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games, and having played just three days ago, there's no question that favors the defenses in this one.

Brad Stevens is a defensive-minded head coach who will have Boston playing in low-scoring games for most of the season. He values possessions offensively, and makes sure his players work the shot clock to find the best shot available.

It's no surprise that Boston is 5-2 to the UNDER through its first seven games due to Stevens' philosophy, and its lack of scorers to boot. Orlando is also 5-2 to the UNDER in the early going as oddsmakers continually set the totals too high for both of these teams.

Orlando is 10-1 to the UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 16-7-1 in the last 24 meetings in this series, including 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Boston. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks are showing tremendous value as only a 2.5-point favorite against the lowly Charlotte Bobcats Monday. The Hawks have absolutely dominated this series over the past couple of seasons, and I look for that trend to continue tonight.

Atlanta is off to a 3-3 start this season despite playing a brutal schedule that has featured four road games. All three of its losses have come by nine points or less, including two by exactly two points at the Lakers and at the Nuggets. In my opinion, this will be its easiest game yet.

Charlotte is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers due to its 3-3 start. Its three wins have all come by six points or less, and its three losses have come via blowout at Houston (83-96), at New Orleans (84-105) and versus New York (91-101). Atlanta is outscoring teams by 1.5 points per game on the season, while Charlotte is getting outscored by 5.2 points per game.

The Hawks have won eight straight meetings with the Bobcats dating to a 96-85 home victory April 13, 2011. They have gone 7-1 ATS in the process. Atlanta's average margin of victory during that stretch is 16.3 points per game. Al Jefferson has been hobbled by an injured ankle, and he's questionable to return tonight for Charlotte.

Plays on road favorites (ATLANTA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more are 42-14 (75%) ATS since 1996. Charlotte is 4-17 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better over the last three seasons. Atlanta is 10-1 ATS after two straight games where it attempted 90 or more shots since 1996. Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -2

There's no question that the Phoenix Suns have been one of the biggest surprise teams in the early going. They are off to a 4-2 start this year, which includes a 104-98 win at New Orleans on November 5. That sets the Pelicans up for a big revenge spot here. After losing at home to the Suns, I fully expect them to return the favor five days later.

New Orleans did not look great in the early going, but it has managed to rebound for two straight blowout victories to get back to 3-3 on the season. It won at Memphis (99-84) and topped the Lakers (96-85) at home. Unlike the Suns, I fully believe the Pelicans are here to stay for the long haul with the talent they have on board. Meanwhile, Phoenix will fade as the season progresses due to a lack of overall talent.

Indeed, the Pelicans are loaded with talent. Anthony Davis is averaging 23.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4.3 blocks and 2.0 steals per game to live up to his No. 1 pick status. Eric Gordon (16.5 points) is healthy, while Jrue Holiday (13.7 points, 7.2 assists) and Tyreke Evans (8.5 points) were excellent additions this offseason.

Home-court advantage has meant little when these teams have gotten together over the past couple seasons. In fact, the road team has won five of the last eight meetings while going 6-2 ATS in the process. New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons. Phoenix is 8-21 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days over the last two seasons. Take the Pelicans Sunday.

15* Blazers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

This is a home-and-home situation between the Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings. Portland won at home last night 104-91, and I fully expect the Kings to come back the more motivated team tonight to protect their home court in the second meeting.

Sacramento has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league. That has been evident in recent meetings with the Blazers, as the Kings have taken three of the past four meetings at home. The home team has won seven of the past nine meetings overall.

Portland had a historically bad bench last season, and its bench has not gotten that much better in 2013. That makes dealing with these back-to-back situation much more difficult on the Blazers than it would be for most teams.

Starters Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum are all averaging at least 34 minutes per game. Head coach Terry Stotts' hand is forced to have his starters play big minutes due to the lack of a bench. Only Mo Williams (7.2 ppg) is averaging more than 4.8 ppg off Portland's bench this year.

Meanwhile, Sacramento has a deep bench. That's evident by the fact that the Kings have a whopping nine players averaging at least 17 minutes per game this season. They bring guys like Ben McLemore, Travis Outlaw, Isaiah Thomas, Jason Thompson and Chuck Hayes off the bench, which is a pretty salty crew.

Portland is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after a win by 10 points or more. The Blazers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after scoring 100 or more points in two straight games. The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with Sacramento Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -3

The Memphis Grizzlies were getting way too much respect to open the season due to making the Western Conference Finals last year. As a result, they have opened the season 0-5 against the spread. Now, the betting public is off this team, which has forced them to set a weak line tonight.

Meanwhile, the Warriors are the flavor of the week in the early going due to their 4-1-1 ATS mark. Now, Golden State is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers, and the roles have reversed. There is a ton of value with Memphis as only a 3-point home favorite tonight.

The Grizzlies will come out determined for a win after opening 2-3 this year. They have had two days off to prepare for the Warriors having last played on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. This will also be the 4th game of a tough 4-game road trip, and there's no question the Warriors are tired, while the Grizzlies are well-rested.

Making matters worse for the Warriors is that Stephen Curry (ankle) is questionable to play tonight after sitting out last night's 74-76 loss at San Antonio. Whether he plays or not, I like the Grizzlies to win and cover, but if he doesn't play it's only an added bonus. Chances are he won't be playing after sitting out last night as 24 hours probably isn't long enough for his ankle to fully recover.

The Warriors tend to struggle without Stephen Curry, but having him hasn't made much of a difference against the Memphis Grizzlies. His importance to the Warriors has been evident when he's missing - especially on the road. They're 16-39 without Curry, dropping 23 of 31 contests away from home.

His status may not matter since the Warriors have dropped nine straight meetings with the Grizzlies, and Curry has averaged 22.9 points in eight of them. He poured in 32 with eight assists and five rebounds in a 99-93 defeat in the most recent visit to Memphis on Feb. 8. The Warriors have lost eight in a row there dating to a victory on April 4, 2008. That is a span of over five years. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Cavaliers UNDER 201.5

This is a home-and-home situation for the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. These teams met last night in Philadelphia with the 76ers pulling out a 94-79 victory for 173 combined points.

I look for a similar low-scoring affair tonight as these teams square off for a second straight night. There's no question that the familiarity of one another favors the UNDER as the defenses know the opposing offense tendencies. Those tendencies aren't going to change over night.

Taking a look at this series between Philadelphia and Cleveland, its easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER. In fact, each of the last nine meetings have seen 190 or less combined points. They have combined for 173, 168, 184, 175, 165, 190, 188, 183, and 186 points in their last nine meetings, respectively. That's an average of 179.1 combined points/game, which is roughly 22 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.5.

The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-0 in Cavaliers last 9 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. These five trends combined for a perfect 27-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as a mere 1.5-point home favorite over the Indiana Pacers tonight. Off an overtime loss to Washington, Brooklyn is going to come back pissed off and ready to go tonight.

Indiana is way overvalued due to its 6-0 start this season. I faded it with success last night by backing the Raptors +9, and I'll fade the Pacers again tonight. They are in the toughest possible situation, playing their 4th game in 5 nights.

This Indiana team had one of the worst benches in the entire league last year, and it has done little to upgrade its bench in 2013. Not having a bench makes it extremely difficult to play a 4th game in 5 nights.

While Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back, and it went to overtime last night, this will only be its 2nd game in 4 nights. Plus, the Nets have one of the best benches in the league. They have 12 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game, and their bench consists of solid players like Jason Terry, Shaun Livingston, Andray Blatche, Andrei Kirilenko and Reggie Evans.

Brooklyn went 3-0 against Indiana last season. Paul George averaged 13.7 points on 37% shooting in those three contests, while Roy Hibbert has averaged 10.3 points on 38% shooting during a four-game losing streak to Brooklyn. Brook Lopez averaged 21.3 points and 3.0 blocks in last season's series, and he's averaged 22.3 points in 10 meetings against Indiana since the 2009-10 season.

The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss. Brooklyn is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Indiana. Roll with the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +13.5

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog to the Miami Heat Saturday. Boston came into the season undervalued, and that has proven to be the case with its 4-2 ATS mark on the year.

Despite being 2-4 on the season, Boston has yet to lose a game by more than 10 points. Despite being 4-2 on the season, Miami has yet to win a came by more than 12 points. I simply believe this number has been inflated tonight due to the perception that Boston isn't very good, and that Miami is the defending champs.

Miami has a way of playing down to its competition. That's especially the case now that it is back-to-back champs, which makes it hard to get up for regular season games like this one against a team that is perceived to be not very good. The Heat were certainly up for the Clippers last time out, winning 102-97 at home Thursday. However, off such a big win, that sets them up for a letdown tonight.

Lebron James is nursing a sore back, which will certainly have him limited tonight. The Heat used to look at Boston as rivals, but now they have to look at them in a completely different manner with Pierce and Garnett gone. That will leave them in a poor state of mind heading into this one.

Five straight and nine of the last 10 meetings between Boston and Miami have been decided by 13 points or less. The Celtics are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast opponents. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win. Boston is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Miami. Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +9

The Indiana Pacers are way overvalued due to their 5-0 start this season. They are coming off a huge win over fellow Central Division contender Chicago on Wednesday, setting them up for a big letdown spot here as they host the Toronto Raptors. They also have a road game at Brooklyn on deck tomorrow, which makes this a potential lookahead.

Toronto has been much better than its 2-3 record would indicate. All three of its losses came by nine points or less, and that 9-point setback was against the defending champion Miami Heat.

Home-court advantage has meant absolutely nothing when Indiana and Toronto have gotten together over the last couple of year. In fact, the road team is is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Toronto has won its last two visits to Indiana outright as a 7-point and 9-point underdog, respectively.

Plays against any team (INDIANA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=41% on the season, after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 75-37 (67%) ATS since 1996. Toronto is 14-4 ATS in road games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Raptors are 19-8 ATS in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic. Both teams are in rebuilding mode, and each lacks offensive firepower, especially the Celtics.

Boston is only averaging 89.4 points per game despite shooting a solid 47% from the floor this season. That just shows how slow of a pace it plays at, which is no surprise considering head coach Brad Stevens always played at a snail's pace at Butler. The Celtics have been solid defensively, giving up just 93.4 points per game.

Orlando's numbers are a bit inflated due to playing an overtime game against Minnesota that resulted in 235 combined points. However, three of their five games have seen 193 or less combined points. That includes the 98-90 win on Wednesday against one of the best offensive teams in the NBA in the Los Angeles Clippers.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 49-21 (70%) over the last five seasons.

Orlando is 9-1 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 56-33 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game since 1996. The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 road games. The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Celtics last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is is 43-20-2 in Magic last 65 Friday games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Knicks OVER 191

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Charlotte Bobcats and New York Knicks tonight. I look for this to be a shootout with these teams combining for more than 191 points with ease, which has certainly been the case in recent meetings.

Charlotte and New York have combined for 198 or more points in each of their last four meetings. Those four games have seen 199, 201, 213 and 198 points for an average of 202.8 points/game. That includes Charlotte's 102-97 road victory on November 5 just three days ago.

Now, Tyson Chandler has suffered an injury that will keep him out for the next 4-to-6 weeks. That's a huge loss for New York as they'll be playing without their former Defensive Player of the Year. That will open things up a lot for opposing offenses, and it will force the Knicks to be even more perimeter-oriented offensively than they already are. This should lead to easy buckets for opposing teams on long rebounds with fast break opportunities.

New York is 27-9 to the OVER after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more shots than opponent since 1996. Charlotte is 24-13 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. The Bobcats are 16-5 to the OVER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. New York is 12-4-2 to the OVER in its last 18 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Hawks/Nuggets Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -3

As one of two winless teams on the season, the Denver Nuggets (0-3) are clearly highly motivated for their first victory of the year. I look for them to take out their frustration Thursday on the Atlanta Hawks, who are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The good news is that Denver has had plenty of practice time to get things straightened out. It is the only team in the entire league to have played just three games to this point in the season. New head coach Brian Shaw has had extra time to implement his systems, and I look for that extra practice to start paying off as soon as tonight.

It started to pay off in their last game against the San Antonio Spurs. The Nuggets held a 78-72 lead entering the fourth quarter against the defending Western Conference champs, only to get outscored 30-16 in the final period to lose 94-102. If they can hang with the Spurs, they can certainly beat the Hawks by more than three points tonight.

I don't believe the Hawks have shown enough to be getting this much respect from the books as only a 3-point road dog to the Nuggets, who have historically been one of the best home teams in the league. Atlanta's two wins came against Toronto (102-95) and Sacramento (105-100). It also fell at Dallas (109-118) and at the Lakers (103-105).

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge when the Hawks and Nuggets get together in recent years. Indeed, the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. Denver has won six straight home meetings with Atlanta, and five of the last six meetings in this series overall.

The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Denver is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 home games against Southeast Division opponents. The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games versus good offensive teams that score 103 or more points per game. Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

15* Clippers/Heat TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this showdown between the Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat. These National TV games usually bring out the best in team defense, and I look for that to be the case tonight in this matchup between two of the top contenders to win the NBA Title in 2013-14.

I believe this number has been inflated largely due to both teams going OVER the total frequently in the early going. Los Angeles is 4-1 to the OVER thus far, while Miami is 4-1 to the OVER as well. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this number higher than it should be because the betting public is going to continue pounding the OVER in this game tonight. I'll go the other way.

Let's take a look at the two meetings between Miami and Los Angeles last year. In their first meeting on November 14, the books set the total at 197 and they combined for 207 points to go OVER the number. In their second meeting on February 8, they set the total at 193 and they went OVER again with 200 combined points. Now, they've set the total at 210.5 points, which is way higher than last year's two totals, which further proves my point that there is a ton of value on the UNDER.

While the Clippers have been soft defensively thus far, there's no question that head coach Doc Rivers won't stand for it for much longer. They are coming off their best defensive performance of the season last night, though they still lost 90-98 at Orlando for 188 combined points. I look for them to continue to make strides defensively tonight against the Heat.

The UNDER is 23-8 in Clippers last 31 Thursday games. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Heat's last six Thursday games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Heat's last eight home games. Miami is 15-5 to the UNDER in home games after making 85% of their free throws or better over the last three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 185

The Utah Jazz and Boston Celtics are two of the worst teams in the league in 2013. Both are 0-4 to start the year and each will be hungry for their first victory. I look for both teams to bring max effort defensively in this one in search of that elusive first win.

Brad Stevens ran a very slow tempo at Butler, and he has brought his same philosophy to these Celtics. Playing at home, Boston will control the tempo in this one and make this a half-court game from start to finish, limiting the possessions for both teams.

Both squads have been atrocious offensively in 2013. Boston is scoring just 87.5 points per game despite shooting a respectable 45.5%, which shows how slow of a tempo it plays at. Utah is putting up 90.7 points per game on 40.4% shooting this season.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtis last six games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last five road games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a huge letdown spot here. They are coming off a big win over the Houston Rockets on Monday night, and they have an even bigger game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck Thursday in a game that will be nationally televised on TNT. I fully expect them to be overlooking the Orlando Magic tonight.

Everyone has been overlooking the Magic this season due to finishing with the worst record in the league a year ago. This team is much-improved, going 2-2 straight up and a perfect 4-0 against the spread. Its two losses came on the road with one in overtime against Minnesota. Its two wins came at home via blowout with a 110-90 win over New Orleans, and a 107-86 victory over Brooklyn.

Los Angeles is one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season. It is giving up 112.5 points per game and 48.2% shooting, so Doc Rivers hasn't been able to make up for the lack of defensive talent in the early going. Orlando is putting up 104.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting, including 43.5% from 3-point range.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, first half of the season are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Magic are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. Orlando is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 meetings with Los Angeles. Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* Bulls/Pacers ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +3

The Chicago Bulls have obviously not played up to their potential en route to a 1-2 start this season. However, this is a resilient team, and with three days off heading into this showdown with the Indiana Pacers, I fully expect them to correct their mistakes and to come away with a win tonight against NBA Central Division rival Indiana.

The Pacers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 99-91 win at Detroit last night. That gives the Bulls a huge edge in rest and preparation heading into this one. Not only will they want it more, they will be more better prepared than Indiana to come away with a victory tonight.

"You've got to correct things immediately; you got to put the work into it," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau told the team's official website. "You can't hope it to happen; you have to make it happen. And we need everybody doing it. We can't rely on a certain two or three guys to do everything. Our entire team is needed. This isn't a Derrick issue, this is a team issue and we have to correct it."

Chicago is 14-6 against Indiana with Derrick Rose in the lineup. Thibodeau is 33-13 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 26-9 ATS off a loss by six points or less as the coach of Chicago. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -1.5

The Washington Wizards are highly motivated for their first win of the season Wednesday night. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that they already lost to the Philadelphia 76ers by a final of 102-109 at home on November 1, so they will be seeking revenge, too.

Philadelphia is way overvalued after a 3-1 start with three wins by seven points or fewer. The fact of the matter is that this team lacks talent, and its true colors showed last time out in a 90-110 home loss to the Golden State Warriors.

Washington has had two days off since a 93-103 loss at Miami on Sunday. It comes in fully rested and fully prepared to avenge its earlier loss to the 76ers. Look for John Wall and company to come out with their best effort of the season tonight to get the win and cover.

Washington is 18-6 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponents over the past two seasons. Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS after coving three of its last four against the spread over the past two years. The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Rockets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1.5

The Houston Rockets are in a very tough situation tonight. They will be playing their 4th game in 5 days after losing 118-137 to the Los Angeles Clippers last night. There's no question that game took a lot out of them as the Clippers simply ran them to death. That obviously makes matters worst heading into their 4th game in five nights at Portland Tuesday.

The Trail Blazers will have a huge edge in rest in this one. They actually come in on two days' rest since their 115-105 home victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, November 2. That followed up an even more impressive 113-98 road win at Denver the previous night. There's no question this team is improved.

Portland had one of the best starting fives in the league last season led by LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum. All four of those guys are back to lead the way, and they're combining to average roughly 80 points per game between them. The Blazers' problem last year was that they had no bench.

Well, Portland has shored up that area as well. Not only is Robin Lopez an upgrade over J.J. Hickson as the starting center, but guys like Mo Williams, Dorell Wright and Thomas Robinson are now manning the Blazers' bench. That's a huge upgrade over last year's bench, which was historically one of the worst that the NBA has ever seen. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Blazers in a very favorable spot Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavericks/Lakers UNDER 214.5

Oddsmakers are overreacting from the high-scoring nature in the early going of both Lakers and Mavericks games. While there's no question that the Mavericks have been impressive offensively, while the Lakers have upped the tempo a bit, this total is simply set too high and there's a ton of value with the UNDER.

The Lakers are only scoring 100.0 points per game this season. They clearly miss Kobe Bryant on offense and have to make up for his absence by playing better on the defensive end. While it hasn't always been pretty, the Lakers have been much better on that side of the ball of late, allowing 91 points to the Spurs and 103 to the Hawks in their last two contests.

When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The Lakers and Mavericks have combined for 209 or less points in 16 of their last 17 meetings. The only game they didn't was a 112-108 overtime victory for the Lakers on 4/15/2012. That game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation for 196 combined points.

So, not counting overtime, the Lakers and Mavs have combined for 209 or less in 17 straight meetings, making for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2010. I understand these teams are different this year, but not different enough to warrant this ridiculous 214.5-point total. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers (2-1) want to make a statement tonight against the 3-0 Houston Rockets. They come in on two days' rest having last played on Friday, while this will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Rockets.

Getting two days to prepare for Houston is pretty big. The Rockets are one of the more tough teams to prepare for due to their versatility offensively. I really like the Clippers having DeAndre Jordan, who can match up with Dwight Howard about as well as anyone in the league.

Houston comes in overvalued due to its 3-0 start that has come against a pretty soft schedule. It has home wins over Charlotte and Dallas, as well as a road win at Utah thus far. Los Angeles' 126-115 home win over Golden State was impressive to say the least. I look for a similar result tonight.

The Clippers have won five of the last six meetings in this series. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rockets are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win. Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns +13.5

The Phoenix Suns are way undervalued to open the 2013-14 season. They are perceived as rebuilding, but they have Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe carrying a new era in Phoenix.

As a 13-point underdog today, the Suns are obviously getting no respect from oddsmakers. They have opened 2-0 this year with wins over both the Blazers and Jazz. I like what I've seen from them thus far, and they should not be a 13-point dog to the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is not the same team it is when Russell Westbrook is healthy. We saw that in the playoffs last year, and we're seeing it in the early going. The Thunder barely beat the Jazz 101-98, and they were thoroughly dominated by the Timberwolves 81-100 last time out.

The Suns are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Not surprisingly, all seven of those games have come without Russell Westbrook. Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

Both the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight. However, there are two big advantages that the Mavericks have in this situation.

Dallas played in Houston last night, so it won't be a very long flight North back to Dallas. Memphis played at home last night, so it's definitely going to a long flight for the Grizzlies. Couple that with the fact that the Grizzlies played an overtime game against Detroit, and the advantage clearly goes to the Mavs in terms of rest and travel.

Coach Rick Carlisle did an excellent job of managing players' minutes last night, and it showed that this Dallas team is very deep. No player played more than 32 minutes last night, which was Monta Ellis, who is a young guard who can handle the load of playing a back-to-back. Nine different players played at least 13 minutes, and 11 players got into the game in all.

What I really liked to see was how well the bench performed. Gal Mekel had 11 points and six assists in 23 minutes, DeJuan Blair had 11 points and 10 rebounds in 18 minutes, and Jae Crowder had 15 points in only 13 minutes. Knowing that these bench players are capable of performing gives Carlisle a lot of options going into tonight. Plus, the Mavericks only shot 38.0 percent from the floor and still hung with the Rockets, only losing by a final of 105-113. That shows a a lot about this team as well.

Memphis has one of the worst benches in the entire league. As a result, six players were forced to play the majority of the minutes last night against Detroit. Five players played at least 32 minutes, while none of the other five players that played were able to contribute double-digit points. Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph each played 36-plus minutes against the Pistons. The Grizzlies simply rely too heavily on this trio, and that will take its toll tonight.

I just strongly feel that the Grizzlies were overrated coming into the season due to making the Western Conference Finals last year. They were gifted that trip to the conference finals thanks to an injury to Blake Griffin for the Clippers in the first round, and an injury to Russell Westbrook for the Thunder in the second. Their true colors showed in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Spurs in the West Finals.

After opening 0-2 ATS in 2013-14, it's clear that I was right when saying this team was overvalued. It still is overvalued as only a 2-point underdog to the Mavericks on the road tonight. Conversely, Dallas came into the season undervalued due to going 41-41 last season. But it was playing without Dirk Nowitzki for much of the year, and once he came back, the Mavericks went on a nice run just to get back to .500 on the season.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. In fact, the home team has won six of the last seven meetings between the Mavericks and Grizzlies dating back to 2012. Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games playing on 0 days' rest. The Mavericks are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss. Dallas is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +8

The Detroit Pistons are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into the 2013-14 season. That was evident in their opener as they dismantled Washington 113-102 as only a 2.5-point home favorite. The Wizards are a hot pick this season to be much-improved, so it was a really good win.

I love what Detroit has done this offseason. It has brought in Josh Smith, Chauncey Billups and Brandon Jennings. While Jennings is out with an injury, the Pistons did not miss him much as they scored 113 points on 50% shooting. Will Bynum had 19 points while Billups scored 16 to lead the Pistons' backcourt.

But the real reason this team is going to be so tough going forward is the length of the three big men in Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Monroe and Drummond were already arguably the most underrated big man tandem in the league, and when you throw Smith into the mix, this is going to be a tough team to deal with. Monroe scored 24 points in the opener, while Smith (19) and Drummond (12) had solid games as well.

Conversely, I believe the Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams heading into 2013-14. That's because they made the Western Conference Finals last year. However, they were aided by an injury to Blake Griffin in their series win over the Clippers, and then Russell Westbrook missed the entire series in the Conference Semifinals for Oklahoma City.

Memphis' true colors showed in the conference finals as they were swept in four games by the Spurs. The Grizzlies did nothing to improve their team this offseason, especially offensively. They lost 94-101 to San Antonio in the opener in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they shot just 41.9 percent from the floor. Sure, Memphis is going to be a good defensive team again this season, but so is Detroit with their trio of big men.

Detroit is 72-49 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1996. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win. Detroit is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. the Pistons are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 or more points in its previous game. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Pistons. Take Detroit Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 188

The books have set the bar way too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Both of these teams are going to be solid defensively this year, but each is also going to be terrible offensively. That couldn't have been more evident than in the openers for each on Wednesday.

Milwaukee lost 83-90 at New York in its opener while shooting just 45.9 percent from the floor. It did allow 50.7 percent shooting to the Knicks, but so for such a low-scoring game, that just shows the kind of slow pace they played at. Boston lost 87-93 at Toronto despite shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Again, it was such a low scoring game due to the slow pace.

Brad Stevens is the new head coach at Boston. At Butler in college, Stevens always got the most out of this teams behind a suffocating defense. He even took the Bulldogs to the NCAA Championship twice, which is simply remarkable. He did that despite having a below-average offensive team in terms of points per game because they played at such a slow pace and relied on defense.

Milwaukee boasts two of the best defensive big men in the league. Larry Sanders and John Henson have a ton of length and can alter shots as well as any tandem in the NBA. However, neither player is gifted offensively. So this is certainly going to be a defensive-minded Bucks team, especially after letting go of Monte Ellis and Brandon Jennings in the offseason.

Both teams have injuries to guards that are really going to hamper their offensive production in the early going, and force them to play at an even slower pace. Milwaukee is expected to be without starting point guard Brandon Knight and backup point guard Luke Ridnour, leaving the unproven Nate Wolters to handle the PG duties. Boston is without Rajon Rondo (knee), while backup PG Avery Bradley is questionable with a head injury.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series. Had one of those games not gone to overtime, the UNDER would be 8-1. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six vs. NBA Central opponents. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bucks last five road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. NBA Atlantic foes. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be hungry for their first win of the season on Friday as they return home to face the Toronto Raptors. Despite allowing 57.1% shooting at Dallas on Wednesday, they hung tough and lost by a final of 109-118.

Obviously, the defense isn't going to be nearly as bad at home, and Toronto isn't going to be nearly as hot at Dallas was the other night. The offense looked solid in scoring 109 points, and head coach Mike Budenholzer has been preaching defense heading into this one, especially in transition.

"If you sprint back, you've got to take care of the basket first, and then the ball and then the most dangerous (potential shooter) - in that order," Budenholzer said. "A lot of times if it truly is transition, you don't end up with your own man."

Point guard Jeff Teague had 24 points, nine assists and four steals while doing a nice job triggering Budenholzer's new offense. Newcomer Paul Millsap scored 20 points from the power forward spot previously manned by Josh Smith, and another newcomer, Cartier Martin, added 17 points off the bench.

"We were running back to our own man; that's stuff you learn in second grade," Teague said. "They were getting easy baskets. We've got to get back in transition and match up. It doesn't matter who you guard. We made mistakes. We're learning. We're a new team. We'll get better."

I strongly believe the Hawks are underrated heading into the season due to the trade of Josh Smith in the offseason. Well, they return almost everyone except Smith, and Paul Millsap is an ample replacement. In fact, he is arguably the single-most underrated player in the entire league.

I was more impressed with how the Hawks hung tough in Dallas in a losing effort than I was with Toronto's 93-87 home victory over Boston to open the season. The Celtics are in full-blown rebuilding mode, and the Raptors struggled to put them away as an 8-point favorite. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight, while the Hawks aren't getting enough.

Atlanta has won nine of its last 11 meetings with Toronto. Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 203

Two of the best offensive teams in the entire league will be on display Thursday night when the Los Angeles Clippers match up with the Golden State Warriors on TNT. I look for a shootout between these teams tonight.

According to some preseason rankings that I trust very much, the Clippers are projected to be the most efficient offensive team in the league. That's easy to see when they have Chris Paul and Blake Griffin surrounded by deadly accurate 3-point shooters like J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes, along with proven scorer Jamaal Crawford.

Even in an off night, the Clippers managed over 100 points in their 103-116 loss to the Lakers to open the season. I also expected this team to struggle defensively due to the personnel with below-average defenders like Redick and Jamaal Crawford. That was certainly the case against the Lakers.

Golden State opened its season last night by putting up a big number on the Lakers, winning 125-94 at home. With deadly shooters in Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry, this squad is going to be tough to defend, just as it was in the playoffs last year.

Taking a look at previous meetings between these teams from last season, it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight. The Clippers and Warriors combined for 205, 204, 209 and 224 points in their four meetings last year. As you can see, they topped 203 points each meeting, and they averaged 210.5 combined points in the four contests.

The OVER is 8-1 in Clippers last nine games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. The OVER is 16-5-1 in Clippers last 22 games vs. division opponents. The OVER is 11-2 in Warriors last 13 vs. division opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 189

This is a rematch from the playoffs last year where the San Antonio Spurs swept the Memphis Grizzlies in four games. There's no question that these teams are very familiar with one another, which will lead to a defensive battle tonight in the season opener for both teams.

Miraculously, four of the last eight meetings between the Spurs and Grizzlies have gone to overtime. I believe that's a big reason why this total has been inflated. The betting public doesn't always realize this, and they just see that the over/under ratio is 4-4 in the last eight games in this series.

A closer look really shows how the Spurs and Grizzlies consistently play in defensive battles. If you exclude overtime, then I find that the last eight meetings have seen 179, 172, 170, 188, 182, 185, 190 and 174 combined points at the end of regulation.

As you can see, only once did the Spurs and Grizzlies combine to score more than 188 points in the last eight meetings. When you average it out, they have combined for 180.0 points per game on average in the last eight meetings at the end of regulation. That's a full nine points below tonight's posted total of 189.

I have seen nothing from the Spurs and the Grizzlies in the offseason that makes me believe either team will be better off offensively this season. In fact, in my defensive efficiency ratings which factors in points allowed per 100 possessions, San Antonio ranks as the No. 1 defensive teams in the league, while Memphis checks in at No. 3 heading into the 2013-14 season.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 75%) from last season are 40-15 (72.7%) over the last five seasons. With an added intensity due to meeting in the playoffs last year, I look for this to be an absolute defensive battle tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +2

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to be one of the most improved teams in the league this season. After missing a lot of time last season, both Eric Gordon and Anthony Davis are healthy to start to the 2013-14 campaign. These are the cornerstones of the franchise, so that's very important.

With two of the best moves of the offseason, the Pelicans have added point guard Jrue Holiday and shooting guard Tyreke Evans, which will be a huge addition to the offense. They have two shooters who can stretch the floor in Ryan Anderson and Anthony Morrow. This is now one of the deepest lineups in the league.

Only the Chicago Bulls (8-0) posted a better preseason record than New Orleans, which went 7-1. Davis picked up right where he left off last season when healthy, averaging 19.9 points and 5.9 rebounds in 27.4 minutes per game in the preseason. Gordon put up 17.0 points in an average of 20.8 minutes per game. Holiday added 11.8 points and 6.1 assists, while Morrow (12.5 points) and Anderson (11.9 points) provided a scoring punch as well.

The Indiana Pacers are coming off an unconvincing 97-87 win over Orlando in their opener Tuesday night. They trailed by four points at halftime against arguably the worst team in the league in the Magic. Also, Roy Hibbert banged up his knee, while Paul George jammed his finger in the win. While both players are expected to play, there's no question this is concerning for Indiana fans.

Indiana's bench was one of the worst in the league last season. It hasn't gotten much better in the offseason, either. That's key here because the Pacers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their starters played big minutes last night. I know it's still early, but playing the second of a back-to-back hurts teams like the Pacers without a bench more than it would a team like the Clippers with a deep bench. Plus, Danny Granger remains out, which makes the Pacers' bench even more thin.

The home team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win. The Pelicans are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on three or more days' rest. Take New Orleans Wednesday.
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15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -12

A year after striking gold with James Harden in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Houston Rockets have now landed the biggest-named free agent on the market in Dwight Howard. After making the playoffs last season, the Rockets are now primed to make a deep run in the postseason with two superstars leading the way.

What makes the Rockets so deadly now is that they have a ton of quality pieces surrounding Howard and Harden. Omer Asik will combine with Howard to form one of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA. Patrick Beverly and Jeremy Lin are battling for playing time, and each is an above-average point guard in this league. Chandler Parsons is a deadly accurate 3-point shooter who can do a little bit of everything.

While the Charlotte Bobcats made a big splash in the offseason to finally get a scoring big man in Al Jefferson, the fact of the matter is that they won't be much better off in 2013-14. Plus, Jefferson is questionable to play Wednesday as he battle a nagging ankle injury. While I fully expect him to suit up, this is a terrible matchup for he and the Bobcats.

Houston loves to run the pick and roll, and Jefferson routinely ranks among the league's worst in defending the pick-and roll. A banged-up Jefferson will be even more vulnerable against Harden, Beverly, Lin and company in pick-and-rolls. Then there's Ben Gordon, who finished 5.6 points worse per 100 possessions than the average defender last season, which was the worst mark in the entire league by a wide margin.

After opening 7-5 last season, Bobcats' fans believed that it was going to be their year. It turns out that they won all six games that were decided by five points or fewer, including a double-overtime win against the winless Wizards for victory No. 7. It also turns out that only one of those seven teams finished with better than a .500 record. Charlotte would go on an 18-game losing streak thereafter, while also posting a 7-47 record over its next 54 games. The Jefferson signing isn't going to just make all of their problems go away.

Houston has absolutely owned Charlotte in recent meetings, and that was before it landed Howard this offseason. The Rockets are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bobcats. Four of the five victories came by 12 or more points. Houston has won by 14, 20 and 16 points in its last three home meetings with Charlotte.

The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The favorite is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston. Charlotte is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games. The Bobcats are 14-37 ATS in their last 51 vs. Western Conference opponents. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pistons UNDER 190.5

The Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons will be two of the better defensive teams in the league in 2013-14. I look for that to show in the opener as these teams take part in a defensive battle Wednesday night in Detroit.

With the addition of Josh Smith, the Pistons boast a formidable frontcourt that will not allow many easy baskets around the rim. Andre Drummond came into his own last season as a shot blocker and rebounder, and he is only going to get better a year later. Greg Monroe is also a solid defender, though not quite to the level of Smith and Drummond.

A big key here is that Brandon Jennings is going to miss the first week or two of the season due to injury. Jennings was added to provide some offense at the point guard position, and the Pistons will miss his ability to create shots for teammates and himself in the early going. Chauncey Billups is a candidate to take his place. I like the toughness that Billups brings to the table as one of the best perimeter defenders the league has ever seen. However, he's not quite the offensive player he once was, much more preferring to play off the ball these days.

Washington was one of the most underrated defensive teams in the league last season, which was evidenced by their 45-34-3 UNDER record. Once John Wall returned from injury in January, the Wizards gave up just 99.7 points per 100 possessions, which was the sixth-best mark in the entire league from that point-on. This team features a bunch of plus-defenders who play big minutes, such as Bradley Beal, Nene Hilario, Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Ariza.

Taking a look at recent meetings between the Wizards and Pistons, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with this UNDER Wednesday. The Pistons and Wizards have combined to score 191, 181, 183, 168, 193, 156 and 175 points in their last seven meetings, respectively. That's an average of 178.1 points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total.

Washington is 11-1 to the UNDER as a road underdog of six points or less over the last two seasons. The Wizards are 40-15 to the UNDER in their last 55 road games overall. According to my adjusted defensive ratings, I have Washington listed as the 5th-best defense in the league, while Detroit features the 9th-best defense in 2013-14. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +8

The New York Knicks are one of the most overrated teams in the league heading into the 2013-14 season. This line is certainly a reflection of that as I believe the Milwaukee Bucks are much more evenly-matched with the Knicks than this line would indicate. I'll take full advantage and pounce on the points in the opener for both teams Wednesday.

The Knicks were a dominant team before Amare Stoudemire returned last season. They won 70.4 percent of games in the early going, but when Stoudemire returned in January, they went on to win just 55.2 percent of the rest of their games. He doesn't fit in this offense, but the money they are paying him forces coach Mike Woodson's hand to put him in the lineup.

J.R. Smith had an excellent year last season, earning Sixth Man of the Year honors. However, he struggled in the playoffs and is coming off knee surgery. Plus, he will be serving a five-game suspension to open the season due to violating the league's substance abuse problems. Without his energy and shot-making off the bench, this is just a mediocre team.

In perhaps the worst move of the offseason, New York traded for former Raptor Andrea Bargnani. He offers nothing of what New York needs and everything it should avoid. The injury-prone Bargnani shot just 39.9 percent from the floor and 30.9 percent from 3-point range when healthy enough to play in Toronto last year. He also averaged a measly 4.6 rebounds per 36 minutes played last year, which is unacceptable for a 7-footer. Bargnani is expected to start, and he severely handicaps New York's defense, making Tyson Chandler's job much more difficult than it should be.

Now to the Bucks, who quietly had a very productive offseason. I love the fact that they got rid of Brandon Jennings and Monte Ellis, who simply hijacked the offense with ill-advised shots. In fact, Ellis and Jennings combined for the third-most field goal attempts of any duo in the league last season, finishing only behind Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and New York's Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. After the Bucks ranked just 23rd in offensive efficiency last season, it was time for them to go.

Milwaukee has now shifted its focus to building around two of the most underrated players in the league in Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders. Ilyasova scored 13.2 points to go along with 7.1 rebounds and 44.4 percent from 3-point range last season. He becomes the go-to scorer on this team, but the additions of O.J. Mayo, Caron Butler and Brandon Knight will help take a big part of the scoring load off his shoulders.

Then there's Sanders, who is one of the best defenders in the league after leading the NBA in block percentage and finishing third in total blocks. He also improved as a rebounder, averaging 13.9 boards per 40 minutes of floor time. To better understand his importance, the Bucks were 5.0 points per 100 possessions were defensively when Sanders was on the bench last season.

Sanders will team with John Henson for a formidable frontcourt filled with length and athleticism. Luke Ridnour provides a veteran presence to back up Knight at the points, while Gary Neal brings some solid scoring off the bench. Milwaukee is an astounding 48-19-2 ATS in its last 69 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. It is also 7-3 ATS in its last visits to New York. Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

25* NBA Season Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +4.5

The Chicago Bulls are going to want revenge from their loss to the Miami Heat in the conference semifinals last year. It's remarkable that the Bulls were able to even get to the second round with all of the injuries they suffered last season.

Derrick Rose missed the entire year, and Luol Deng came down with an unexpected sickness in the playoffs. Not to mention, Richard Hamilton, Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich and Taj Gibson would combine to miss 87 games during the regular season.

The experience this team gained will go a very long way into making them a championship-caliber squad going forward. Guys like Deng, Jimmy Butler, Carlos Boozer, Noah, Gibson and Hinrich all had to step up their games and play bigger roles.

Now, with the return of Rose, the rest of these players won't have to just stand around and watch him operate. They know they can contribute, because they did last season. Also, the addition of Mike Dunleavy gives this team a deadly accurate 3-point shooter that has been much-needed since the loss of Kyle Korver a few years back.

Chicago rolled to an 8-0 record in the preseason due to the play of Rose. He averaged an absurd 20.7 points over 27.4 minutes per game while showing off his improved range, hitting on 12-of-27 (44.4%) from behind the 3-point line.

Lebron James has only fueled the fire for the Bulls. "We don't like them, they don't like us," James said of the Bulls after practice Monday. "It's not unheard of. We all know how it is."

"It don't matter who it is," James said of the opponent for the opener. "But we like the fact that it's the Bulls." Considering Chicago has been knocked out of the playoffs two of the last three years by Miami, James would have been wise to keep quiet heading into this one.

Miami will be raising its 2012-13 championship banner and getting its rings before the game. That in itself is a huge distraction, and one that will not help the Heat as they take on what I believe to be the best team in the Eastern Conference in the Bulls.

This is a very familiar spot for the Heat on both sides of the spectrum. After the Heat won the title in 2006, the Bulls promptly put a quick end to their celebration on opening night, winning 108-66. The Heat were in the Bulls' shoes two years ago. After losing to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 finals, they got revenge in the 2011-12 opener by blasting the defending champs by double-digits.

Few teams can match up with the Heat quite like the Bulls. Deng and Butler are two of the best wing defenders in the league. With these two on James and Wade, respectively, the Bulls can make life very difficult on Miami's stars.

I look for Chicago to quickly put an end to Miami's ring ceremony and banner raising celebration by winning outright on opening night. I'll just take the points for some added insurance. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* Magic/Pacers NBA Season Opener on Orlando +12

The Orlando Magic come into the season way undervalued due to finishing with the league's worst record in 2012-13. Conversely, the Indiana Pacers enter the season overvalued due to taking the Miami Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals last year. As a result, I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Magic as a double-digit dog in the opener.

Arron Afflalo is coming off his best season as a pro, finishing with career highs in points, rebounds and assists. Jameer Nelson enters 2013-14 healthy, while the No. 2 overall pick in Victor Oladipo is ready to show that he's an up-and-coming star in this league. Nikola Vucevic is one of the most underrated players in the NBA after a year in which he was a double-double machine.

The ankle injury to Tobias Harris hurts, but Andrew Nicholson showed some great signs over the summer and into the preseason. He scored a team-high 60 points for Canada in the FIBA Americas, hitting 6-of-7 shots from beyond the arc. He carried that over into the preseason, connecting on 46.2 percent from distance. Maurice Harkless showed flashes of brilliance last season, and he averaged 10.8 points on 48.4 percent shooting in the preseason as well.

Indiana is a quality team that I rode quite a bit in the playoffs last year. While I have a ton of respect for the Pacers with what they did last season, they have created the kind of expectations for themselves that will make them good fade material in the early going. Plus, Danny Granger has suffered another setback with a calf injury and will miss the first three weeks of the season. Depth was a huge issue for the Pacers last season, and without him, the bench takes a big hit.

The road team has won three of the past four meetings in this series, so home-court advantage isn't a big factor when these teams get together. The price is right to pull the trigger on Orlando in the opener. Take the Magic Tuesday.

25* NBA Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Spurs/Heat UNDER 189.5

I have correctly picked the winning side in each of the first six games in this series. However, I believe the oddamakers have set a very solid spread for Game 7. But they have certainly missed their mark on the total, which is where all the value lies in this huge contest.

By now, San Antonio and Miami know exactly what one another is going to do. That makes points very hard to come by as it's now down to which team wants it more. Game 6 would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime, and I look for Game 7 to be even lower scoring tonight.

Both teams come in extremely tired after using up a ton of energy in that incredible Game 6. Neither team is going to have the energy to get out and fast break with any kind of consistency. That's why I expect this to be a slow-it-down, grind-it-out Game 7. Also, the pressure of a Game 7 will make it more difficult for shooters to knock down shots.

The play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - as a # 1 seed in the playoffs, in the finals.

The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Spurs last 22 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Miami's last 5 home games. The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings between these teams in Miami. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Thursday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio +7

I have been using the zig zag theory to perfection since taking San Antonio +5.5 in Game 1. I have gone 5-0 in the NBA Finals by selecting Miami in Game 2, San Antonio in Game 3, the Heat in Game 4, and the Spurs in Game 5.

However, I feel like it's time to buck this trend. That's because I believe that the oddsmakers have finally over-adjusted for it, installing Miami as a series-high 7-point favorite for Game 6. The value is with the Spurs in this one folks.

San Antonio knows that its best chance to win this series is in Game 6, because history is not on its side if this series goes to a Game 7. Greg Popovich will have his team focused and ready to go win this series in Game 6.

It's clear that Manu Ginobli still has something left in the tank. He, along with Danny Green, were the keys to San Antonio's Game 5 victory. I look for the Spurs to continue to share the ball and find the open man, while Manu is every bit as aggressive as he was in Game 6, which certainly helps this team.

Only three teams in NBA Finals history have rallied from a 3-2 deficit to win the final two home games, and thus the series. Tony Parker got overlooked in Game 5 as he scored a game-high 26 points, showing that his hamstring is a non-issue. Tim Duncan did what he does, scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds.

San Antonio is 14-3 ATS after a game where it made 55% of its shots or better this season. Miami is 1-10 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season, including 0-7 ATS ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games this season. Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Tuesday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio +1.5

Just as Game 4 was a must-win for Miami, Game 5 has become a must-win for San Antonio. The Spurs know they cannot afford to be down 3-2 with the final two games being played in Miami. I look for them to respond in a big way at home in Game 5.

The media has made a big deal about Tony Parker's hamstring, and Manu Ginobli's poor play to this point. I look for both guys to respond in a big way, and for the team to rally around them like they have all season. That talk in the media has also shifted Miami to a 1.5-point favorite as the public has flocked to the Heat.

I'll go the other way and back the Spurs, who have been nothing short of dominant at home all season. They are 42-8 at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.0 points/game. Whatever they have to give, they will be putting on the floor in this one.

Miami has been absolutely terrible after a win in these playoffs. It is now 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. win, 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win, and 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. San Antonio is also 7-0 ATS off a home loss this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points/game in this spot. These seven trends combine for a perfect 36-0 system backing San Antonio. Bet the Spurs in Game 5 Sunday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +1.5

This is essentially a must-win situation for the Miami Heat. They realize they cannot afford to go down 3-1 if they want to win this series, so I look for them to give everything they have to get a victory in Game 4.

The Heat have been at their best when coming off a loss and needing a bounce-back win. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and 10th against Indian and Portland to find the last time that Miami has lost back-to-back games.

San Antonio simply caught fire in the second half and shot lights out in Game 3. In fact, the Spurs set an NBA Finals records with 16 made 3-pointers over their 32 attempts for a 50% clip. They aren't going to even come close to shooting that well again from distance.

Miami is 14-3 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more since 1996. The Heat are 15-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Miami is a perfect 11-0 SU in its last 11 games following a loss dating back to January 10th. Now that's resiliency folks. This team can turn is on when it needs to. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Thursday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 3 No-Brainer on San Antonio -2

I have gone 2-0 in the Finals with the Spurs +5.5 in Game 1 and the Heat -5.5 in Game 2. As expected, the Heat bounced back in basically a must-win situation in Game 2 with a blowout victory as they simply wanted it more.

Now, returning home for Game 3, I look for the Spurs to make the proper adjustments and to continue their dominance in San Antonio. The Spurs are a ridiculous 41-7 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.1 points/game.

It has been a rollercoaster ride for the Heat against the spread dating back to the Eastern Conference Finals. Every time they get a big win, they seem to come back with a poor effort their next game. After a loss, they tend to bounce back with a great effort.

In fact, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system in support of San Antonio heading into Game 3.

I believe that Game 3 is where all that rest the Spurs received after sweeping the Grizzlies will pay off. Conversely, I feel that the grueling 7-game series the Heat faced against the Pacers will come into play. San Antonio will be the fresher team, and that will show in the 3rd and 4th quarters as it pulls away for a Game 3 victory. Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat -5.5

The Miami Heat in Game 2 represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NBA Finals. Knowing that they cannot afford to go down 0-2 with the next three games being played in San Antonio, the Heat will respond with a blowout victory in Game 2 tonight.

Miami simply responds following a loss better than any other team in the league. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and January 10th to find the last time that the Heat lost back-to-back games this season.

I look for the Spurs to relax a little knowing that they have three home games coming up following this Game 2 showdown. They won't be able to match the intensity of Lebron James and company in this one.

The Heat are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 2 days rest. The Heat are 14-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Bet the Heat in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

The most likely game for a road team to steal in the playoffs is Game 1 of a series before adjustments are made. While I believe the Spurs will win Game 1 tonight, I'm going to take the points for some insurance.

San Antonio matches up with the Miami Heat as well as anyone in the league. Greg Popovich is a tremendous head coach, and he'll be sure to double and triple team Lebron James at times to not let him beat them. Miami will have to hit jump shots in Game 1 if it wants any chance to win tonight.

After sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs come into this game well-rested and prepared to face Miami. Meanwhile, the Heat just got done with a grueling 7-game series with the Pacers.

San Antonio is 8-0 ATS in road games versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Spurs are 9-0 ATS after 2 consecutive division games over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing San Antonio. Bet the Spurs Thursday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have been an extremely resilient team. They came together with a 91-77 victory in Game 6 in the face of elimination. While the Pacers are a team coming together heading into Game 7, the Heat seem to be falling apart at the seams.

Dwyane Wade wants a bigger role. Chris Bosh wants a bigger role. This has led to some turmoil within their locker room, and I simply like the mindset of the Pacers better heading into this Game 7. Miami has all of the pressure on its shoulders considering it is the favorite to win the title.

Indiana comes in as the underdog with almost no pressure on its shoulders. David West had a 103-degree temperature in Game 6, but he played through it and scored 11 points while grabbing 14 very important rebounds. The team rallied around him, and once again this moment has brought them closer together.

"We've got to do a good job of making sure me and Chris have our opportunities to succeed throughout the game," Wade said. Wade has scored a total of 20 points the past two games. He was 3 of 11 for 10 points in Game 6.

Bosh averaged 16.3 points on 11 shots in the series' first three games. In the three games since, he's averaging just 6.3 points on seven shots a game. Bosh was 1-of-8 shooting for just five points in Saturday's loss.

"We've got guys individually who want to play better," Wade said. "But we've got to try to help each other out in this locker room and not leave it up to the individual to self-will it."

"I mean, we can state the obvious; they're both struggling," Lebron James said of Wade and Bosh. "When you're struggling, the best thing to get is a layup or a dunk. [Wade] missed a couple of them ... Chris is struggling with his shot and him hurting his ankle didn't help."

Indiana is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more this season. Miami is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after playing a road game this season. The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bet the Pacers in Game 7 Monday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +3

The Indiana Pacers are not about to give in and let Miami take this series in six games. I look for the Pacers to send this series to Game 7 with a victory tonight to continue their home dominance.

Indiana is 37-12 at home this season. It is winning by 7.9 points/game at home this season. The Pacers have only lost one game at home in the playoffs, going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS this postseason. They simply play with a lot of confidence at home.

The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. These two trends show how each team has responded recently following a win/loss. Indiana responds in Game 6 tonight. Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami -7.5

The Miami Heat get the nod Thursday in Game 5. I look for a similar dominant performance to their Game 3 effort when they won at Indiana 114-96 after losing Game 2 at home. They'll bounce back in similar fashion following a Game 4 loss tonight.

Miami is a ridiculous 42-6 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game. Indiana is just 22-26 on the road this season, and it will not be able to match the intensity of the Heat playing behind their home fans tonight.

The Heat are 12-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. It is bouncing back to win by 12.4 points/game in this spot. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games following a S.U. loss dating back to the regular season. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Thursday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +3

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NBA playoffs in Game 4 tonight. They should not be an underdog at home, and I fully expect them to beat the Miami Heat outright to even this series.

Indiana clearly relaxed a little after taking Game 2 from Miami and earning home-court advantage. Meanwhile, Miami came out in Game 3 wanted to get back its home court. I look for these teams to reverse roles mentally tonight, with the Pacers fighting to get to 2-2, while the Heat realizing that they can lose Game 4 and still have home-court advantage the rest of the way.

The Pacers have been one of the best home teams in the league this season. They are 36-12 at home this year, including 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the playoffs. Their Game 3 loss to the Heat was their first home setback of the postseason.

Indiana is 24-13 ATS following a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. The Pacers are 13-4 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season. Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 4 No-Brainer on Memphis -3

The Memphis Grizzlies have absolutely no quit in them. This team is not going to give in even though they are down 3-0. Memphis still believes it has a chance to come back and win this series against the odds. It starts with a home victory in Game 4 tonight.

Before their home loss to the Spurs in Game 3, the Grizzlies were undefeated at home in the playoffs. Their fans will come out and support them like they have all season. Memphis is now 37-10 at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 53-20 (72.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).

Memphis is 21-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are a perfect 7-0 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. They are bouncing back to win by 9.4 points/game in this spot. Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +110

The Indiana Pacers are going to pull off the upset in this series. I'm going to continue to back them in Game 3 tonight as they take a 2-1 series lead on the Miami Heat.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

Indiana is 36-11 SU & 28-19 ATS at home this season. The Pacers have not lost in the playoffs at home, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in six playoff games. I'll gladly put my hard-earned money on the Pacers as an underdog at home tonight in Game 3.

The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Finals games. Indiana is 20-11 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season. Bet the Pacers on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 3 No-Brainer on Memphis -5

This is a must-win game for the Memphis Grizzlies. After falling short in overtime in Game 2, the Grizzlies find themselves down 2-0. I look for them to play with a sense of urgency, while the Spurs take their foot off of the gas just enough tonight to allow Memphis to win and cover.

Memphis has been one of the best home teams in the league all season. It has gone 37-9 SU & 28-16 ATS at home this year. In fact, the Grizzlies have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs at home, beating the Clippers by 12, 21 and 10 points, and topping the Thunder by 6 points twice.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meeting as well. The home team has won seven straight meetings between Memphis and San Antonio. Tony Parker continues to be bothered by an injured calf, while Memphis is 100% healthy coming into this one.

The Grizzlies are 21-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Memphis is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Bet Memphis in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7

The Indiana Pacers fought hard in Game 1 as they were covering the +8 number for all 53 minutes of that contest. They fell just short, losing on a last-second layup in overtime. This has been a resilient team all year, and I look for them to bounce back in Game 2.

I have no doubt the Pacers are capable of winning this game outright, I'm just taking the points for some insurance. As I stated with my play on Indiana in Game 1, this is simply a tough match-up for the Heat, and a great one for the Pacers.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

Indiana realizes it cannot afford to fall down 2-0 if it wants to win this series. That's why I look for it to lay everything on the line in Game 2, which will be enough to cover this lofty spread. According to some comments after the game, it's clear that the Pacers are more inspired by how close they came to winning in Game 1, rather than disappointed. So, I love the mindset of this team coming in.

Indiana is 47-22 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. The Pacers are 23-13 ATS following a loss this season, and 18-7 ATS after a road loss. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The underdog is 29-14-1 ATS in the last 44 meetings. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Friday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +8

I've believed that Indiana has been the most underrated team in the entire 2013 playoffs. Once again, the Pacers are undervalued in Game 1 of this series with the Miami Heat as a massive 8-point road underdog.

Miami could not have had an easier path to the Eastern Conference Finals. It got to face the only team in the playoffs with a losing record in Milwaukee, and it also played a depleted Chicago Bulls team that just simply did not have the talent to be competitive.

I believe that easy path is going to work against the Heat as they won't be ready for the fight they are going to get from Indiana in Game 1. They have basically just had to go through the motions to this point to win games, but that won't be the case against the Pacers.

Plus, Miami is going to be rusty coming into this one. The Heat have not played since beating Chicago 94-91 on May 15th. It had a big layoff after sweeping the Bucks on April 28th, and didn't get to start the Chicago series until May 6th. It would come out rusty and lose to the Bulls 86-93 at home in Game 1.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

The Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Indiana is 39-18 ATS after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent since 1996. The Pacers are 46-26 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. Bet Indiana Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

Almost everything that could go right for San Antonio in Game 1 of this series did. The Spurs shot 52.6% from the field, including 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range.

I look for Memphis to make the proper adjustments, which will certainly help cool off the Spurs as they clearly won't shoot nearly that well again. This has been a resilient Grizzlies' team all year, and I fully expect them to give San Antonio all it can handle in Game 2.

Memphis is still a blistering 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. San Antonio should not be a bigger favorite than it was in Game 1, which is another reason why I believe there is a lot of value in backing the Grizzlies here in Game 2. The public is overreacting from the Spurs' blowout win in Game 1.

The Grizzlies are 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Lionel Hollins is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more as the coach of Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 1 No-Brainer on Memphis +4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This has been the most underrated team in the league all season, and it's still the case in the playoffs.

I would normally have a longer analysis than this, but there's just no need to beat around the bush. Memphis is going to win this Game 1 outright, but I'm just taking the points for some insurance. Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* Knicks/Pacers Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -5

The Indiana Pacers will close out the New York Knicks in Game 6 in blowout fashion. Indiana hasn't lost at home the entire playoffs, and it's not about to start losing today.

This has been one of the best home teams all season, especially in the playoffs. The Pacers are 35-11 SU & 27-19 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game.

New York is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* Pacers/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana +5

I look for the Indiana Pacers to take a page out of the Memphis and Miami's books tonight and close this series out in Game 5. That's especially the case with Miami on deck as they want to be as rested as possible going into that series.

New York had its chance to get back in this series in Game 4, but fell flat on its faces with yet another double-digit road loss to the Pacers. The Knicks feel like they're already beaten, and I hardly expect them to show up tonight as a result.

This play falls into a system that is 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (NEW YORK) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.

New York is 0-7 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. It is losing in this spot 95.3 to 106.3, or by an average of 11.0 points/game. Bet the Pacers Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +14.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing their best value of the entire playoffs tonight as a massive 14.5-point underdog to the Miami Heat in Game 5. They have already been counted out in this series, and this is when they are at their best.

Chicago was up 3-1 on the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, and they would lose the next two games, setting up a Game 7. Almost everyone gave them no chance after blowing that 3-1 lead, but I took them on the money line in Game 7, and they won outright to advance to face Miami.

The Bulls simply will not quit. They take after head coach Tom Thibodeau, who refuses to let his team believe that they are down and out. I look for Chicago to take this game right down to the wire with a chance to win in the 4th quarter.

Thibodeau is 10-1 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Chicago. His teams are bouncing back to win 92.4 to 85.5, or by an average of 6.9 points/game in this spot.

Miami is 0-7 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive road wins this season. The Heat are 0-9 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on New York +5.5

This is essentially a must-win situation for the New York Knicks as they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 in this series against the Indiana Pacers. I look for them to respond well and to win Game 4 to nod this series at 2-2, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

After getting upset in Game 1, the Knicks responded very well in Game 2 with a blowout 105-79 victory. This team has proven that it has some resiliency, and I look for that to show tonight on the road in Game 4.

New York is 48-28 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. New York is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Pacers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 184.5

As a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another, and the tougher it is to score points as a result. That was evident in Game 3 of this series as Memphis beat Oklahoma City 87-81 for 168 combined points.

I fully expect this pivotal Game 4 to be similarly low-scoring to Game 3. Memphis controls the tempo playing at home, and it wants to grind it out in the half court. Oklahoma City is unable to run due to Russell Westbrook being out for the season.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 21-6-2 in Thunder last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 12-4 in Grizzlies last 16 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ABC Sunday No-Brainer on OVER 198

There is a ton of value on the OVER in Game 4 between the San Antonio and Golden State. The oddsmakers have set this number lower than any of the first three games.

The books set the total in the first three games at 203, 204.5 and 201.5. I'll gladly take advantage of this value in Game 4, and you should too. Golden State has been at its best when going small ball, and after losing Game 3, I look for the Warriors to go small ball again.

The Spurs are 22-11 to the OVER in road games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. They are combining with their opponents to average 203.3 points/game in this situation. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Knicks/Pacers ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -4

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 after getting blown out in Game 2. They stole Game 1, and then proceeded to not show up in Game 2 because they were simply satisfied with taking home-court advantage from the Knicks.

That blowout in Game 2 will get their attention, and Indiana will be refocused and playing with a chip on its shoulder Saturday. The Pacers are one of the best home teams in the league this season, going 33-11 while outscoring opponents by 8.5 points/game. Indiana won its first three home playoff games over the Atlanta Hawks by 17, 15 and 13 points.

New York is expected to get Amare Stoudemire back in the line-up in this one, and he's likely to play 10-15 minutes. Stoudemire has been a huge plague on this team since Carmelo Anthony joined, and the Knicks for whatever reason struggle with him on the floor.

This play falls into a system that is 70-36 (66%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game).

Mike Woodson is 4-15 ATS in road games in all playoff games in all games he has coached since 1996. Frank Vogel is 34-20 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Indiana. The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings with Indiana's Game 1 win in New York being the only exception. Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 188

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder. The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another, and the harder it is to score points.

Memphis and Oklahoma City combined for 184 points in Game 1 and 192 points in Game 2 for an average of 188 combined points. Given my theory, I believe there is a ton of value in the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

Neither team really can run, which is a huge edge towards the UNDER. Oklahoma City is playing at a much slower pace without Russell Westbrook, while Memphis is a half-court team at nature, and it will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

I look for a similar final score to the Memphis/LAC match-up in Game 3 of Round 1. The Grizzlies won that game 94-82 for 176 combined points. Memphis is scoring 94.1 points/game and allowing 87.2 points/game at home this season for a combined average of 181.3 points/game.

This play falls into a system that is 51-26 (66.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a playoff series which is tied, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.

Oklahoma City is 12-4 to the UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Thunder are 17-3 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive home games this season. Memphis is 11-1 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs should not be an underdog to the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 Friday. After losing Game 2, I look for the Spurs to come out with a sense of urgency to try and regain home-court advantage with a Game 3 victory.

San Antonio has been one of the best road teams in the league all season at 25-18. The Spurs are 51-14 SU in their last 65 meetings with the Warriors, including 21-11 in their last 32 visits to Golden State.

This play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

San Antonio is a deadly 11-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. It has come back to win in this spot 107.8 to 95.8, or by an average of 12.0 points/game. Bet the Spurs Friday.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Spurs UNDER 205

I'm siding with the UNDER in this Game 2 between the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors as my best total for the entire second round of the playoffs. I successfully cashed in the OVER in Game 1, but I'm going in the other way in Game 2.

After a high-scoring, 129-127 double-overtime victory in Game 1, the books have been forced to set this number higher than it should be. The total was set at 201 for Game 1, and now it's been jacked all the way up to 205, providing us with excellent line value on the UNDER.

Golden State shot lights out in Game 1 at 51.0% behind Stephon Curry's amazing shooting display. He put in 44 points, and there's no way the Warriors light it up again like they did in Game 1 as San Antonio makes the proper adjustments.

Both teams were simply gassed after playing a double-overtime game. I believe that will carry over into this Game 2 as nearly really looks to run the floor like they normally would. I look for this to be a half-court game, and for the shooting to be off due to the tired legs.

This play falls into a system that is 43-12 (78.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

San Antonio is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 186.5

This Memphis vs. Oklahoma City series has defensive battle written all over it. With no Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are virtually forced to play a half-court game, which is exactly what Memphis likes.

These teams combined for 184 points in Game 1 with a 93-91 Oklahoma City victory. Memphis shot 42.7% while the Thunder were held to 41.2% shooting. I look for an even lower-scoring game in Game 2 tonight.

The UNDER is 20-6 in Grizzlies last 26 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. The UNDER is 36-17 in Grizzlies last 53 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Thunder last 12 vs. NBA Southwest foes. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Thunder last 27 games overall. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Thunder last 17 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Knicks TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on OVER 183

The books have once again missed their mark on the total in Game 2 of this series just as they did in Game 1. Indiana beat New York 102-95 in Game 1 for 197 combined points despite a total set of just 181.5.

What the public and thus the oddsmakers have failed to realize is that Indiana is no longer a slow-it-down, defensive team. That's evident by the fact that the Pacers are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall. They have scored 100-plus points in 10 of their last 18 games as well.

We all know that the Knicks can fill it up as they are averaging 101.4 points/game at home this season. They managed 95 points in Game 1 despite shooting just 43.2% as a team, including 10-for-28 from Carmelo Anthony and 4-for-15 from J.R. Smith. I look for both Anthony and Smith to be much more efficient tonight, which will lead to 100-plus points for New York.

The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 Conference Semifinals games. The OVER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 201

The books have missed their mark badly in Game 1 of this series between Golden State and San Antonio. I believe there is a ton of value with the OVER tonight as both teams put up 100-plus in this one.

Golden State has been forced to play small ball due to injuries to a couple of their big men. As a result, it is more vulnerable defensively, and I look for San Antonio to put up a big number because of it. I don't believe the Warriors miss a beat offensively going small ball, though.

This play falls into a system that is 47-17 (73.4%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games.

Golden State is 29-16 to the OVER as an underdog this season. The OVER is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Warriors are 14-6 to the OVER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Pacers/Knicks Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +5.5

The Indiana Pacers are the most underrated team left in the playoffs. That's once again evident as they are a 5.5-point underdog to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of this series Sunday.

I look for Indiana to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for some insurance. The Pacers have won three of their last five meetings with the Knicks.

Indiana is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 39% or less since 1996. The Pacers are 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more since 1996. Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* Bulls/Nets Game 7 No-Brainer on Chicago Money Line +256

The Chicago Bulls have been left for dead. Everyone has written them off after losing the last two games after taking a 3-1 series lead. This has been the most resilient team in the league over the last few years, and I look for them to win outright in Game 7.

Tom Thibodeau is the is the best motivator there is in the NBA. Thibodeau is 23-8 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago. Thibodea is also 25-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago.

The Bulls are actually coming back to win in this spot 97.6 to 88.9, or by an average of 8.7 points/game. Chicago is one of the best road teams in the league this season at 22-22 away from home. Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Thunder/Rockets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -1

The Houston Rockets continue to get disrespected by oddsmakers in Game 6 tonight. They have been the better team in the last four games, and clearly in the last three since Russell Westbrook went down with injury.

I believe Houston has an excellent chance to become the first NBA team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. They now have advantages all over the floor over Oklahoma City that they did not have when Westbrook was healthy.

Westbrook's absence forces Kevin Durant to play the point-forward position, which he is extremely uncomfortable in. The loss of Westbrook clearly shows how good of a player he really is, but it's not being reflected in the odds tonight.

Houston is 30-13 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.0 points/game. The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Oklahoma City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 meetings in Houston. Take the Rockets Friday.

25* Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing their best value of the entire series tonight as a 6.5-point road underdog in Game 6 to the Memphis Grizzlies. They aren't going to go down without a fight, not with Chris Paul running the show.

Yes, Memphis has owned this series for the last three games, but I look for Los Angeles to make the proper adjustments tonight. They haven't gotten anything from their bench as Chris Paul has had to do it all. I look for the bench and role players to finally step up and contribute with their season on the line.

Los Angeles is 39-24 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Clippers are 18-7 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons.

The Clippers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Memphis is simply overvalued tonight. Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* Celtics/Knicks ESPN Game 6 No-Brainer on Boston +2

The New York Knicks have awoken a sleeping giant. From J.R. Smith saying the series would be over if he had played in Game 4, to the black clothing the Knicks showed up in in Game 5 signifying Boston's funeral, they couldn't possibly be any more stupid.

Boston is a team that will never quit as long as Doc Rivers is head coach. This team will show even more fight than it did in Games 4 and 5 in Game 6 tonight in front of a raucous home crowd. I look for the Celtics to win Game 6, and to have an excellent chance to be the first team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series.

Remember, New York hasn't won a playoff series since 2000, so all of the pressure is on the Knicks. It's not going to be easy to win in Boston where the Celtics are 28-14 SU & 23-18-1 ATS on the season.

The Celtics are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games. Boston is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Knicks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games. Roll with the Celtics Friday.

20* Nuggets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1

The Golden State Warriors will close out this series with the Denver Nuggets tonight in Game 6. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series with Golden State being the only road team to win, and it did so emphatically with a 131-117 triumph in Game 2.

Oracle Arena is one of the best atmospheres in the league come playoff time. It has been a huge advantage for the Warriors all season as they are 30-13 at home on the year. It will be rockin' for Stephon Curry and company tonight.

There's a reason why Golden State is a perfect 5-0 ATS in this series. Denver is simply overvalued as it is getting treated like the team that it was in the regular season, and not the one that it is now. The Nuggets clearly miss Danilo Gallinari as they aren't the same dynamic team without him.

The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Golden State is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall. These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Golden State. Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +8.5

The books have missed the mark badly on this Game 5 between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder. The last three games in this series have been decided by a total of 8 points, which is less than tonight's spread of 8.5.

I'll gladly take advantage and back the Rockets, who are playing with nothing to lose the rest of the way after everyone counted them out down 3-0. The fact of the matter is that Houston could be the team up 3-1 right now had a couple more breaks gone their way.

Oklahoma City has no business being this heavily favored without Russell Westbrook. It is not nearly as dynamic without him, which will make it hard for the Thunder to cover this inflated number tonight even if they do win.

The Rockets are 102-64 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996. Houston is 21-9 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Pacers NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana -7

Home-court advantage has simply been huge in this series between Indiana and Atlanta. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings, winning by double-digits each time. I look for that trend to continue in Game 5 Wednesday.

The home team has now won eight straight meetings between these teams dating back to the regular season. Indiana is 32-11 at home this season where it is outscoring its opponents by an average of 8.1 points/game.

Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 playoff road games. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The home team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings. The favorite is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Knicks TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +9

After falling behind 3-0, the Boston Celtics could have easily quit. Instead, they scratched out a hard-fought overtime victory in Game 4, and they're certainly not about to pack it in now.

Boston will be motivated by J.R. Smith's comments in which he said if he played in Game 4, this series would have been over. The Celtics want to prove that that's not the case, and I believe Smith made a big mistake by opening his mouth about it whether he believes it or not.

New York is 1-8 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season. The Knicks are 2-11 ATS when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 19-9 ATS in the last 28 meetings in New York. Take Boston Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -5

The home team has won each of the first four meetings in this series with three of them being blowouts. After Memphis took care of business in Games 3 and 4 at home, I look for Los Angeles to return the favor at home in Game 5 with a blowout victory.

Chris Paul, one of the most underrated leaders in the game, will rally his troops and have everyone hitting on all cylinders tonight. Paul hasn't been getting much help since Game 1, but playing at home tonight, I look for the role players to feel a lot more comfortable, which will allow them to contribute a lot more.

Los Angeles is 39-23 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Clippers are 18-6 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 206.5

The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder are becoming very familiar with one another. As a result, each game since Game 1 has been lowing scoring. I look for that trend to continue tonight in this Game 4.

These teams combined for 211 points in Game 1, 207 Game 2 and 205 in Game 3. With their playoff lives at stake, I look for the Rockets to put forth their best defensive effort of the series tonight.

It's certainly much easier defending Oklahoma City considering it is without Russell Westbrook for the remainder of the playoffs. I don't expect the Thunder to get to 100 points tonight for the first time in this series. They simply cannot push the pace like they usually would with Westbrook on the floor.

This play falls into a system that is 52-17 (75.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Hawks UNDER 186

The Indiana Pacers and Atlanta Hawks will play part in a defensive battle in this all-important Game 4. With Indiana leading the series 2-1, there is a lot at stake here. The more teams play each other, the more familiar they become with one another, and the harder it is to score.

That was certainly the case in Game 3 as Atlanta beat Indiana 90-69 for 159 combined points. While the Hawks shot just 42.7 percent from the floor, they were able to blow out the Pacers by limiting them to just 27.2 percent shooting.

The UNDER is 7-2 in Hawks last 9 home games. The UNDER is 13-5 in Hawks last 18 Conference Quarterfinals games. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Nuggets/Warriors NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver -1.5

The Denver Nuggets get the call Sunday in a must-win Game 4 over the Golden State Warriors. Denver cannot afford to go down 1-3 with a loss, thus I look for them to do whatever it takes to win Game 4.

This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Denver is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The Nuggets are 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

20* Rockets/Thunder Side & Total Parlay on Houston +1.5/UNDER 207.5

I am backing the Houston Rockets and the UNDER tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. My main reason for taking both plays is that Russell Westbrook will be out due to a torn meniscus in his knee.

The Thunder will be lost without their point guard on the floor tonight. As they struggle, it will prove just how important Westbrook is to this team. He constantly gets bashed in the media for taking too many shots, but the fact of the matter is the Thunder are better when he's being aggressive.

Without Westbrook, the Thunder are going to get much fewer fast break opportunities. They will look to slow it down and run their offense through Kevin Durant almost every time down the floor. The old man Derek Fisher will be running the point guard mostly tonight, and he doesn't have the ability to push the tempo.

The UNDER falls into a system that is 38-10 (79.2%) since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.

Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In fact, the Rockets are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockets and the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Rockets/Thunder Side & Total Parlay on Houston +1.5/UNDER 207.5

I am backing the Houston Rockets and the UNDER tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. My main reason for taking both plays is that Russell Westbrook will be out due to a torn meniscus in his knee.

The Thunder will be lost without their point guard on the floor tonight. As they struggle, it will prove just how important Westbrook is to this team. He constantly gets bashed in the media for taking too many shots, but the fact of the matter is the Thunder are better when he's being aggressive.

Without Westbrook, the Thunder are going to get much fewer fast break opportunities. They will look to slow it down and run their offense through Kevin Durant almost every time down the floor. The old man Derek Fisher will be running the point guard mostly tonight, and he doesn't have the ability to push the tempo.

The UNDER falls into a system that is 38-10 (79.2%) since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.

Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In fact, the Rockets are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockets and the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Warriors ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +1

The Denver Nuggets are showing solid value as a pick 'em tonight against the Golden State Warriors. After losing Game 2 in upset fashion, I look for the Nuggets to come out extra motivated tonight in Game 3 to regain home-court advantage for the series.

Golden State shot out of its mind in Game 2, and that's not going to happen again. It can play well one game without second-leading scorer David Lee, but it will not happen two games in a row.

That's especially the case considering Stephen Curry is banged up right now after twisting his ankle in Game 2. While Curry is listed as probable, there's no question he will not be at 100%. This guy has had chronic ankle problems throughout his career.

Denver is 19-4 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Take the Nuggets Friday.

20* Knicks/Celtics ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

Whatever the Boston Celtics have to give tonight, they will be laying it all on the floor in Game 3. It's do or die for Boston, which can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in this series to the New York Knicks if it wants to continue to play past this round.

That's why I am backing the Celtics tonight knowing they'll be giving 110%, which will be more than enough to cover this generous 2.5-point spread in Game 3. Boston is a resilient team that will not back down under the guidance of Doc Rivers.

Boston is 27-13 at home this season. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. New York is 3-15 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

Doc Rivers is 34-17 ATS off a loss against a division rival as the coach of Boston. Rivers is 41-26 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Boston. Mike Woodson is 2-14 ATS in road games in all playoff games in all games he has coached since 1996. Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* Clippers/Grizzlies TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 180

The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another. That makes points harder to come by. I believe there is a ton of value with the UNDER in this Game 3 between Memphis and Los Angeles for a couple different reason.

The most important reason is the fact that this game will be played in Memphis. The home team tends to control the tempo in a playoff series, and no team likes to slow it down and grind it out as much as the Grizzlies.

The first two games in this series went OVER the total with a 112-91 Game 1 win and a 93-91 Game 2 victory by Los Angeles. That has provided us with some line value on the UNDER in Game 3 as the books have not lowered this total like they should have. In fact, it has been set higher than it was in the first two games in LA.

Memphis is 12-1 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The Grizzlies are 10-1 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Memphis. These three trends combine for a 26-2 system backing the UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Nets/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 181.5

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets in Game 3. As teams become more familiar with each other, points become even harder to come by as a series progresses.

After Chicago beat Brooklyn 90-82 in Game 2 for 172 combined points, I don't look for these teams to combine to exceed even that number tonight. I don't expect either team to get to 90 points in this one.

This play falls into a system that is 32-10 (76.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - in a playoff series which is tied, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

Brooklyn is 18-6 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. Chicago is 12-4 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 188

The books have overcompensated for a high-scoring Game 1 between Atlanta and Indiana. The Pacers beat the Hawks 107-90 for 197 combined points in a game that had the total set at 185.5 as the closing line.

Now, the books have jacked this total up a couple points to 188, and I find a ton of value in backing the under. With their playoff lives at stake, I look for a much better effort defensively from the Hawks as they try to steal Game 2 after giving up 50% shooting and 107 points in Game 1.

Indiana always brings it defensively, and that will be the case once again in Game 2 after limiting the Hawks to 44.9% shooting and 90 points in Game 1. The Pacers only yield 41.4% shooting and 89.9 points/game at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 34-13 (72.3%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (INDIANA) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

Atlanta is 75-48 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 21-6 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Nuggets TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207.5

The Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets will play part in a defensive battle Tuesday in Game 2. I look for this game to take on a similar combined score as Game 1, which saw 192 combined points in a 97-95 home victory by Denver.

Golden State has lost David Lee for the rest of the playoffs to a hip injury. That hurts them a lot more offensively than it does defensively as Lee is a huge weapon on offense. He is second on the team in scoring at 18.5 points/game while shooting 51.9 percent from the field.

Lee's absence means guys like Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and Draymond Green are going to have to play bigger minutes. All three of these guys are known as elite defenders and sub-par offensive players.

Denver is having to rely a lot more on defense with the loss of second-leading scorer Danilo Gallinari (16.2 PPG) due to a season-ending ankle injury. Also, Kenneth Faried is expected to return for Game 2 after missing Game 1, and his rebounding will be huge for the Nuggets defensively.

This play falls into a system that is 70-28 (71.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

25* NBA Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +6.5

In Game 2 against the New York Knicks Tuesday, the Boston Celtics represent my strongest side for the entire first round of the NBA Playoffs. I fully expect them to win this game outright, but I'm taking the points for some insurance.

Like the Bulls who won their Game 2 against Brooklyn on the road, the Celtics are one of the most resilient teams in the league. They are a reflection of head coach Doc Rivers, who like Tom Thibodeau, is one of the most competitive coaches in the league.

Boston simply gave away Game 1 with turnovers in an 85-78 loss to New York. I look for it to learn from its mistakes, and for its defense to be rock-solid once again as it always is in the playoffs. Rivers and company will make the proper adjustments in Game 2.

This play falls into a system that is 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (BOSTON) - off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Boston is 13-2 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are 23-9 ATS in road games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points since 1996. Rivers is 34-18 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest as the coach of Boston. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Nets TNT Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as a 5-point underdog to the Brooklyn Nets Monday. After getting blown out in Game 1, I look for the Bulls to bounce back with an outright victory in Game 2, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

I believe Brooklyn's 106-89 Game 1 victory was simply an aberration. Chicago had won three of the four meetings during the regular season. Its only loss was a 4-point setback at Brooklyn.

The Bulls have been one of the most resilient teams in the league ever since Tom Thibodeau took over as head coach. Thibodeau is 50-31 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago.

P.J. Carlesimo hasn't been the best motivator following a blowout win throughout his coaching career. Carlesimo is in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half in all games he has coached since 1996. His teams are losing 89.2 to 96.2 on average in this spot. Bet the Bulls Monday.