20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7.5 

The Orlando Magic need wins and they need them in a hurry.  They are currently in 9th place in the East, two games behind Miami for the 8th and final playoff spot.  So motivation won’t be a problem for them moving forward. 

The good news for the Magic is that they get to beat up on the 17-51 Cleveland Cavaliers today.  It’s a Cavs team that is depleted by injuries right now.  They are expected to be without Dellavedova and Nance Jr. today, and they were already missing three key guys.  They could be without more, too. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orlando) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5 

The Miami Heat come in playing well having won four of their last five games overall.  And they’re coming off a blowout loss to the Raptors in their only defeat, which I think adds to the line value we are getting on the Heat at home tonight in a game they basically just have to win to cover. 

A big reason for Miami’s strong play of late has been the return of PG Goran Dragic from injury.  They are hitting on all cylinders offensively with him running the show now.  The Heat have scored at least 114 points in six of their last eight games overall. 

The Pistons are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after a recent stretch of strong play, and I think it’s time to ’sell high’ on them tonight.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days, while the Heat come in on two days’ rest.  And the home team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series. 

Detroit is 8-22 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Miami is 21-8 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last three years.  The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -10 

The Denver Nuggets come into this game highly motivated for a victory Tuesday night.  They have lost four of their last five coming in.  But now they’ve had some time to regroup, coming in on three days’ rest having last played on Friday.  Look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 21 days out of the All-Star Break.  The schedule makers have done them no favors as they now have to play five of their next six on the road against some of the best teams in the NBA. 

It’s bad timing for the Timberwolves, who just had both Andrew Wiggins (Quad) and Karl-Anthony Towns (Knee) suffer recent injuries that kept them out of their game against the Knicks on Sunday.  And now both are highly questionable to play tonight as well. 

The Nuggets are 27-6 at home this season, while the Timberwolves are 9-25 on the road.  Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Denver is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +9.5 

This is a great spot to fade the Houston Rockets.  They are starting to become overvalued now due to their eight-game winning streak.  That streak could come to an end tonight, and we’ll gladly take the points with the Hornets given the spot. 

Houston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after narrowly escaping with a 94-93 win at Dallas Sunday.  And now the Rockets have the Warriors on deck Wednesday, so this is a sandwich game and a look ahead spot.  They won’t give their best effort against the Hornets tonight because of it. 

The Hornets will be giving their best effort.  They are one game behind the Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  And they had yesterday off, so they’re rested and ready to go.  They also want revenge from a 103-108 home loss to the Rockets on February 27th just two weeks ago, only adding to their motivation. 

Houston is 21-44-2 ATS in its last 67 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a losing record this season.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  They tend to play to the level of their competition.  The road team is 3-0-2 ATS In the last five meetings.  Take the Hornets Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2 

The Brooklyn Nets have turned it around by winning three straight.  They still trail the Pistons by a half-game in the East, and now they host the Pistons tonight.  The situation really favors the home favorite Nets in this one. 

Brooklyn comes in playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Meanwhile, Detroit will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, its 3rd game in 4 days and its 6th game in 10 days.  I’ll gladly back the more motivated, more rested team at home tonight. 

The Pistons couldn’t possibly be more overvalued than they are currently after going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on them now, especially considering how tough a spot this is for them. 

Brooklyn is 15-5 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Detroit is 8-21 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Brooklyn is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Nets Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +1 

The Miami Heat are balling out right now as they try and cling on to the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including upset wins over the Warriors and Hornets, and they’re only loss during this stretch came on the road against red-hot Houston by 3 as 9-point dogs. 

A big reason for the Heat’s recent resurgence has been health.  They are now as healthy as they’ve been all season.  Point guard Goran Dragic has returned to the lineup and made all the difference in the world for this team.  They are clearly clicking offensively now, scoring 114-plus points in six of their last seven games overall. 

The Raptors have been big money burners since losing Fred VanVleet to injury.  He’s one of the most valuable backup point guards in the NBA, and they miss him badly.  And now the Raptors are going to rest Kawhi Leonard today, which should make Miami’s job a whole lot easier. 

The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Toronto is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Raptors are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Miami is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Heat.  Take the Heat Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers return home today highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses at Chicago and Houston.  Now they’re back home, where they are 25-9 on the season and outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game. 

Plus, the 76ers are expected to get Joel Embiid back from an eight-game absence, which has been the main reason for their struggles of late.  And the Pacers have some injury concerns of their own as Victor Oladipo is out for the season, while Domantas Sabonis, Tyreke Evans and Alize Johnson are all questionable. 

Philadelphia is 26-9 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Indiana is 3-13 ATS in road games when revenging loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Pacers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The 76ers are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 216 

This is one of my favorite situations to back an UNDER.  The Bulls and Pistons are in a home-and-home situation here after just playing on Friday in Chicago.  Now they are playing on Sunday in an early start time at 12:00 EST in the rematch, and they’ll surely still be groggy, which favors the UNDER. 

These teams combined for 216 points in that meeting Friday despite Chicago shootings 51.2% and Detroit shooting 54.2%.  What are the chances they shoot that good again?  The answer is not very good.  I expect this game to be played at a snail’s pace just as that one was, and for it to easily stay UNDER the 216-point total.  Familiarity favors UNDERS, and these home-and-home situations allow teams to get familiar with one another. 

Chicago is 21-11 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Detroit.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulls last six vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Pistons last 15 when playing on one days’ rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* Celtics/Lakers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston -6 

The Lakers are done for.  They faced four basically must-win games in their last four, and they went 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS.  They are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Considering they were max motivated and lost all four, it’s not a good sign for this team. 

Now, the Lakers have publicly stated that they will limit LeBron James’ minutes the rest of the way.  That’s because they are basically eliminate from playoff contention now unless they win out.  It’s a smart move by them because at this point getting the best draft pick they can is the priority. 

Conversely, the Boston Celtics are trying to move up in the Eastern Conference standings.  They have gotten it together by winning three of their last four, including a 33-point win at Golden State.  This team is playing for something, while the Lakers are not.  So I’ll gladly back the more motivated team here in the Celtics tonight. 

Boston is 26-12 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  The Lakers are 4-15 ATS after allowing 105-plus points in five straight games this season.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday. 

20* Thunder/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2 

This is such a favorable spot for the Los Angeles Clippers, who are already playing their best basketball of the season right now and getting no respect from oddsmakers.  The Clippers are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the Jazz and Nuggets. 

Now, the Clippers come in on three days’ rest after last playing and beating the Lakers 113-105 on the road on Monday.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight back at the Staples Center, where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games winning by 27, 9 and 21 points. 

The Thunder are playing terrible right now, going 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  And it doesn’t get any easier for them tonight as they are in their toughest spot of the season tonight.  Not only will the Thunder be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they are coming off an overtime win at Portland last night. And they will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here.  They won’t have anything left in the tank for the rested Clippers tonight. 

The Thunder are 2-10 ATS off a division game this season.  The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in Friday games this season.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* 76ers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +7.5 

The Houston Rockets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now due to their six-game winning streak.  We’ll ’sell high’ on them here tonight, especially off back-to-back upset road wins over Boston and Toronto.  This is clearly a letdown spot for them tonight, and they are laying too big of a price. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the 76ers, who are still without Joel Embiid and coming off a last-second loss to the Bulls.  They also blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost to the Warriors 117-120 recently.  But they’ve won three of their last five outside of those two toss-up losses.  In fact, the 76ers have only lost by more than 3 points once in their last 11 games overall.  There’s a ton of value on the 76ers tonight catching 7.5 points. 

The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets.  They won by 28 at home in their first meeting this season, and also won by 8 on the road as 7-point dogs in their final meeting last season.  Their two losses came by 1 point at home as 3-point dogs and by 5 at home as 6.5-point dogs.  The Rockets haven’t been able to put them away. 

Houston is 10-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The 76ers are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 Friday games.  The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -7 

One of the best-kept secrets since the All-Star Break is how the Dallas Mavericks are tanking.  If they pick in the Top 5 of the NBA draft, they get to keep their pick.  Otherwise they lose it.  They are trying desperately to get in the Top 5, and it’s showing with their play on the floor. 

Indeed, the Mavericks are 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  All eight losses have come by 9 points or more.  That includes a recently 30-point home loss to Memphis and a 39-point road loss to Brooklyn.  If that’s not a sign of a team that’s tanking, I don’t know what is. 

The Magic will be highly motivated for a win tonight off back-to-back road losses to the Cavs and 76ers.  That followed up their best stretch of the season in which they went 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their previous 13 games.  This is a Magic team fighting to make the playoffs as they are currently 9th in the East, just one game back of the Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orland) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The favorite is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Roll with the Magic Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Bucks UNDER 223 

This is the 4th and final meeting of the season between Indiana and Milwaukee.  The first three saw 219, 210 and 203 combined points, progressively getting lower scoring as the season has gone on.  And I think the books have really missed their mark in setting this total too high tonight. 

The Bucks and Pacers have now combined for 223 or fewer points in each of their last 10 meetings, making for a 9-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 223-point total set.  They have averaged just 203.3 combined points in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight’s posted total. 

And keep in mind that Indiana doesn’t have leading scorer Victor Oladipo (18.8 PPG) or 3rd-leading scorer Domantas Sobonis (14.3 PPG) tonight.  Points will be hard to come by for the Pacers.  And these teams are so familiar with one another now, which explains why every time they face off the combined points keeps getting lower and lower.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or more (Milwaukee) - a good team outscoring their opponents by 9-plus points per game, in March games are 29-10 (74.4%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers’ last 10 games playing on one days’ rest.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last five vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 games following a loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Celtics/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento PK 

The Boston Celtics couldn’t possibly be in a tougher spot than they are tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  And they are coming off a huge upset win over the defending champion Warriors last night.  I always like fading teams after facing Golden State, win or lose, but especially off a win.  Teams just never seem to get up for their next opponent after facing the Warriors. 

The Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they’ll be rested and ready to go.  It’s a Kings team that is fighting to make the playoffs as they are currently 9th in the Western Conference standings.  And the Kings are now 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games with quietly one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. 

The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the Celtics and Kings straight up.  The home team is also 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Sacramento is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Boston is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  And it’s a Celtics team that is still not playing well despite that win, going 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall.  I don’t think they’re magically cured after beating the Warriors. 

Boston is 3-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Sacramento is 10-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Kings are 8-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive unders this season.  The Celtics are just 15-16 SU & 12-18-1 ATS on the road this season.  Take the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4 

I love the spot for the Utah Jazz tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation.  And after blowing a 17-point lead at home to the Pelicans and losing 112-115 on Monday, they now get a shot at revenge just two days later.  I look for them to take advantage and get back on track with a blowout road win tonight. 

The Jazz have won eight of their last 10 meetings with the Pelicans, including their 132-111 road win in their first trip to New Orleans back on October 27th.  The Jazz are still 18-7 in their last 25 games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NBA. 

It’s usually a good spot to fade teams in the first game back home following a road trip, too.  Well, the Pelicans just completed their annual Mardi Gras road trip with 4 road games in 6 days at the Lakers, Suns, Nuggets and Jazz.  They now have to deal with the distractions back home, and they certainly won’t be as motivated to beat the Jazz for a 2nd time in 3 days. 

Utah is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 games off a loss.  The Jazz are 19-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to New Orleans.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.  

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5 

The Detroit Pistons are in a great spot tonight.  They are up against a Minnesota Timberwolves team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days off an upset home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night.  This is clearly a flat spot for them now. 

The Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they try and make the playoffs.  They have gone 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  That includes upset home wins over the Nuggets and Raptors.  Their only two losses during this stretch came on the road to the Spurs and Celtics, two of the best home teams in the NBA. 

Detroit comes in on 2 days’ rest, so it will be by far the fresher team.  And the Pistons are taking on a Timberwolves team that is just 9-24 on the road this season.  Minnesota is just 1-8 SU in its last nine road games with its only win coming at the New York Knicks, which is far from impressive against that tanking team.  Detroit is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. 

The Pistons have the Timberwolves’ number, going 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota is 2-12 ATS in road games after a combined score of 235 or more points over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 14-4 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  It is winning by 10.9 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +6.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies keep battling night in and night out.  That is evident by the fact that they have only lost one game by more than 6 points in their last nine games, which came on the road on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have upset the Lakers at home and upset the Mavs by 30 on the road here recently, and they only lost by 4 at OKC as 9.5-point dogs last time out after blowing a 13-point lead late. 

It think we’ll ‘buy low’ on the Grizzlies and ‘sell high’ on the Blazers, who are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The betting public is all over them now.  Consider this.  Memphis was only a 5-point road dog at Portland in their last meeting, and now they are 6.5-point home dogs to Portland in the rematch.   

They’re bigger underdogs at home than they were on the road.  That’s an obvious sign that the Blazers are overvalued right now.  Plus, Memphis was a 3-point favorite in its last home meetings with Portland this season.  They won that game 92-83.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Tuesday nights are 40-16 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Tuesday games.  Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -1 

The San Antonio Spurs have gotten back on track since returning from their disastrous eight-game rodeo road trip.  They have put together back-to-back blowout home wins and covers over Detroit by 12 as 4.5-point favorites and Oklahoma City by 14 as 5-point favorites. 

Now, the Spurs are fresh and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here against the Denver Nuggets.  And it should come as no surprise they’ve turned it around at home considering they are now 24-7 SU & 20-11 ATS at home this season. 

Plus, home-court advantage has been huge in this series as well.  The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Spurs are a perfect 12-0 SU in their last 12 home meetings with the Nuggets.  They basically just have to win to cover as 1-point home favorites tonight. 

The Nuggets come in scuffling a bit with back-to-back upset home losses to Utah as 7.5-point favorites and New Orleans as 13.5-point favorites.  I expect the Spurs to continue their upward trajectory with another win here, while the Nuggets suffer their third straight defeat.   

The Spurs are 17-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  San Antonio is 12-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Spurs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Bet the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Brooklyn Nets, who have lost three straight both SU and ATS to fall to below .500 on the season at 32-33.  They are the team in the playoff hunt here, and they are the one that is likely to bounce back from bad performances. 

The Dallas Mavericks aren’t likely to care nearly as much about their recent bad performances.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by 9 points or more.  They are allowing 114.9 points per game and 47.2% shooting in their last seven games. 

Plays on home favorites (Brooklyn) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent that was also beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996. 

Brooklyn is 25-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS when revenging a same-season loss.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Take the Nets Monday.

20* Rockets/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Boston -2 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Boston Celtics, who have lost four of their last five coming in.  But three of those losses came on the road, including two to the top two teams in the East in Milwaukee and Toronto.  And the other loss was at home on the 2nd of a back-to-back against the hot Blazers. 

But the Celtics got back on track with an 11-point home win over the Wizards on Friday.  And they are still 24-9 SU & 20-13 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites here against the Rockets is a huge discount. 

Houston actually has a losing 15-16 SU & 11-19-1 ATS record on the road this season.  The Celtics are 10-2 ATS as home favorites of 6 points or less this season.  Boston is 8-0 ATS after having lost four of its last five games over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by 11.3 points per game in this spot.  The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5 

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 21-10 SU & 21-10 ATS at home this season.  I think we’re getting a discount on the Mavericks today because they are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall against a brutal schedule. 

Now they face a Memphis team that they can handle.  The Grizzlies are just 6-23 SU in their last 29 games overall and are playing for nothing but pride.  They are short-handed right now due to all their injuries and the trades they’ve made. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series, especially when the Mavericks have been at home.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Grizzlies, winning by 34, 9 and 4 points.  Dating back further, the Mavs are 35-10 SU & 26-19 ATS in their last 45 home meetings with Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas as well.  Bet the Mavericks Saturday. 

20* Blazers/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -5 

The Toronto Raptors are 26-6 at home this season and trying to chase down the Milwaukee Bucks for first place in the Eastern Conference.  I like the value we are getting on the Raptors at home here today as only 5-point favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Blazers, who are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s also a tough spot for the Blazers, who will be playing their 5th straight road game.  They took advantage of a tired Celtics team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back last time out and pulled the upset. 

The task won’t be so easy today against the Raptors, who come in on two days’ rest, so they’ll be fresh and ready to go.  They are coming off their own win over the Celtics in blowout fashion by 23.  And the Blazers will be without two key bench players in Evan Turner and Enes Kanter, who has provided a big spark for them since being acquired from the Knicks. 

Toronto beat Portland 130-105 at home last year.  The Raptors are 18-6 ATS in home games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Raptors Friday. 

20* Jazz/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -7 

The Denver Nuggets are now 27-4 SU & 22-9 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per game at home.  And now they are as healthy as they’ve been all season and playing as well as basically anyone in the NBA.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four of those five wins coming by 9 points or more. 

The Utah Jazz are in a tough spot tonight.  They needed a second half comeback to beat the Clippers 111-105 at home last night.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Nuggets come in rested having yesterday off following their 121-112 home win over the Thunder on Tuesday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Jazz winning all five games by 8 points or more and by an average of 14.2 points per game. 

Denver is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games.  Utah is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games playing on 0 days’ rest.  Denver is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss this season, winning by 16.7 points per game in this spot.  The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday. 

15* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 

I really like the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back upset road losses to the Pelicans and Grizzlies.  Now they have a chance to avenge their loss to the Pelicans only four days after losing to them on Saturday. 

The problem for the Lakers of late has been the Lebron James injury, coupled with the fact that they have now played eight of their last nine games on the road.  In their only home game during this stretch, they upset the Rockets 111-106 as 3-point dogs in their first game back from the All-Star Break.  Now they are back home again and are much more comfortable here. 

The Lakers are 17-12 at home this season, while the Pelicans are just 9-23 on the road.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  And the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  I think we get a big effort from James and company at home Wednesday night as they try and chase down the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - revenge a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 24-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 20-8 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three seasons.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs -4 

This has all the makings of a great spot to ‘buy low’ on the San Antonio Spurs and ’sell high’ on the Detroit Pistons.  These are two teams that have gone in opposite directions here of late, which has created some artificial line value on the Spurs tonight. 

The Spurs went just 1-7 SU in their annual Rodeo Road Trip.  It was the worst they’ve played all season.  And they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them now.  But this has been a completely different team at home, and they are glad to be back home where they are 22-7 on the season and are looking forward to righting the ship tonight. 

We’ll ’sell high’ on the Pistons, who are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But the Pistons have only beaten two teams with winning records during this stretch, and both were at home.  They haven’t been nearly as good on the road this season as they are just 11-17 in road games. 

Plays on any team (San Antonio) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 79-37 (68.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  They are winning by 12.7 points per game in this spot.  The Pistons are 7-20 ATS in road games after having won three of their last four games over the last three seasons.  Take the Spurs Wednesday.

15* Blazers/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5 

It’s safe to say the Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their first three games back from the break.  After losing by a single point at Milwaukee, they proceeded to go on the road and get blown out by Chicago and Toronto. 

But now, the Celtics will be back home for the first time since the break.  And despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they should still be fresh because they had two days off prior to that game with Toronto last night.  Plus, no starters played more than 27 minutes for the Celtics last night, a hidden advantage that softens the effect of the back-to-back. 

So we’ll ‘buy low’ on the Celtics after losing three straight on the road, and we’ll ’sell high’ on the Blazers, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed to come back from a 4th quarter deficit to beat the Cavaliers on the road last time out.  And I just think they’re getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now. 

The Celtics are 23-8 SU & 19-12 ATS at home this season, while the Blazers are just 13-15 SU & 13-15 ATS on the road.  Boston is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  The Celtics are 20-7 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last three seasons.  Boston is 14-2 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 14-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 70% of their games over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Celtics Wednesday. 

20* Thunder/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -3 

The Denver Nuggets are 26-4 SU & 21-9 ATS at home this season.  This is a very short number for them to be laying with how well they play at home.  And they are as healthy as they have been at any point this season. 

The Nuggets have come out of the All-Star Break on a mission.  They beat Dallas 114-104 as 6.5-point road favorites and the Clippers 123-96 as 9.5-point home favorites.  And now they can get a stranglehold on the division with another win over the Thunder.  They beat the Thunder 105-98 on the road and 109-98 at home in their two meetings this season.  They would win the tiebreaker with a win tonight. 

The Thunder are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost at New Orleans by 9 as 4.5-point favorites, needed double-overtime to beat Utah 148-147 at home, and lost at home to Sacramento 116-119 as 5.5-point favorites.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers once again tonight. 

Denver is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive wins this season.  It is winning by 16.3 points per game on average in this spot.  The Nuggets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Thunder are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 division games.  The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Thunder.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

15* Celtics/Raptors TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -4 

Toronto wants revenge from back-to-back road losses at Boston this season which followed up their 12-point home win over the Celtics to start the season.  And it should come as no surprise that the Raptors lost those two games in Boston considering how important home-court advantage has been in this series. 

Indeed, the home team is 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Raptors are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Celtics.  Toronto is 25-6 SU at home this season, while Boston is 14-15 SU & 11-17-1 ATS on the road. 

I think the Raptors are getting disrespected from oddsmakers tonight as only 4-point favorites because they are coming off a bad upset loss to the Magic.  But Kawhi Leonard did not play in that game, and he is expected back tonight.  The Celtics have come out of the break with back-to-back road losses at Milwaukee and Chicago, so it’s not like they are playing well right now. 

Toronto is 12-2 ATS in home games vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 16-4 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The home team continues to dominate this series tonight.  Take the Raptors Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +7.5 

It’s obviously the Chicago Bulls aren’t tanking.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Memphis by 12 as 1.5-point home favorites, beating Orlando outright as 8-point road dogs and beating Boston by 10 outright as 10-point home dogs.   

Yet, oddsmakers want to keep treating the Bulls like they are a tanking team, consistently giving them too many points.  They simply have too much talent to tank.  And now the Bulls want revenge on the Bucks after losing by 13 to them at home in a game they trailed by only 3 with a few minutes left on February 11th exactly two weeks ago today. 

Giannis Antetokounnmpo played in that game, but the Bulls’ job gets a lot easier tonight as he is doubtful to play.  Also expected to be out is point guard George Hill.  The Bulls have lost each of their first three meetings with the Bucks this season and will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep.  Two of those three games went right down to the wire. 

Chicago is 12-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  They are playing with a ton of confidence right now and will certainly show up against the East’s top team tonight.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers aren’t tanking.  They have gone 5-5 SU in their last 10 games overall and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are 3-1 SU in their last four games with their only loss coming to Brooklyn in triple-overtime. 

A big reason for the Cavs’ recent surge is the return of Kevin Love from injury.  Despite being on a minutes restriction, Love still scored 32 points for them against the Grizzlies last game and made six 3-pointers.  Guys like Colin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman are all playing hard and stepping their games up. 

Because Portland is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes upset wins over Golden State and Philadelphia, it is being overvalued now.  The Blazers are now being asked to go on the road and beat the Cavs by double-digits to cover.  I’m just not seeing it.  It’s a sandwich game here as well off the big win over the 76ers without Embiid, and with Boston on deck.  They won’t fully show up tonight, which is really going to make it tough for them to win by double-digits. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 75-34 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on one days’ rest.  The home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Portland.  Roll with the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +9.5 

After getting upset 109-110 as 8-point favorites in their first game back from the break by the Bulls, the Orlando Magic are back to being undervalued today as 9.5-point road dogs to the Toronto Raptors.  The Bulls went on to beat the Celtics by double-digits last night. 

The Magic had gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games heading into the break.  They won all five games by double-digits, too.  So the last thing they wanted was the All-Star Break with the momentum they had built up.  After slipping up in their first game back, they should be refocused here against Toronto. 

The Raptors are overvalued due to their seven-game winning streak coming in.  But they’ve been fortunate to win seven in a row.  Their last four games were unimpressive as they went 0-3-1 ATS.  They won by 5 at New York as 14-point favorites, only beat Brooklyn by 2 as 10-point favorites, beat Washington by 9 as 9-point favorites, and only beat San Antonio by 3 as 8-point favorites. 

Orlando is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Toronto, including a 116-87 upset home victory as 4.5-point dogs in their most recent meeting.  They also only lost 91-93 as 7-point home dogs in their other meeting this season.  Toronto is 3-14 ATS in home games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Orlando is 10-1 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season.  The Raptors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  Bet the Magic Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +6.5 

The Sacramento Kings have been the most underrated team in the NBA this season.  They sit at 30-28 SU & 35-23 ATS and in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference.  They have shown what they are capable of in their last two games despite losing both.  They only lost 118-120 as 7.5-point road dogs at Denver and 123-125 as 12-point road dogs at Golden State.  Those are the top two teams in the Western Conference. 

Now, the Kings will be highly motivated for their first taste of victory since coming back from the All-Star Break.  And I think they are showing tremendous value here as 6.5-point road dogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are in an awful spot tonight. 

The Thunder are coming off a double-overtime game against the Jazz last night in which they won on a buzzer-beater by Paul George, 147-146.  No question they are going to have tired legs tonight, and the Kings can exploit it as they play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA this season. 

The Kings are 3-4 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Thunder.  Sacramento is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games playing on one days’ rest.  Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS off a division game this season.  The Thunder are 9-20 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Kings Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -2 

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to try to win games.  And they are as healthy as they’ve been at almost any other point this season as Kevin Love has recently returned from injury.  The Cavs are 4-5 SU & 5-4 ATS in their last nine games overall to prove they are trying to win games. 

The Grizzlies are 23-37 on the season with nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way.  They traded Marc Gasol prior to the break.  The Grizzlies are just 5-21 SU in their last 21 games overall, and they basically are being asked to win this game SU to cover this 2-point spread.   

Not to mention, the Grizzlies are playing without Kyle Anderson and Jaren Jackson Jr., and they could be without Jonas Valanciunas again tonight.  They’ll also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought loss to the Clippers last night in which they used a lot of energy coming back from a 20-point deficit, only to lose in the end. 

Cleveland is 16-4 SU in its last 20 home meetings with Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Memphis is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after scoring more than 100 points in its previous game.  The Grizzlies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cleveland is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 meetings with Memphis.  Bet the Cavaliers Saturday. 

15* Jazz/Thunder ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226.5 

NBA Unders went 5-1 last night in the first six games back from the break.  Teams are usually sluggish in that first game back from the break, and I think that under trend likely continues tonight.  And I’ll bet my favorite under on the board here in the Jazz/Thunder game on ESPN Friday. 

The recent series history suggest that this number is inflated.  Indeed, the Jazz and Thunder have combined for 226 or fewer points in 38 of their last 39 meetings.  That makes for a 38-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 226.5.  They have combined for 217 or fewer points in 34 of their last 36 meetings as well. 

Oklahoma City is 9-1 UNDER after a game where it attempted 100 or more shots this season.  The UNDER is 21-10 in Jazz last 31 vs. a team with a. Winning record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder last six games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Thunder last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -2 

The Los Angeles Clippers come out of the All-Star Break sitting in 8th place in the Western Conference.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they try and fend of the Kings and Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot. 

The Clippers haven’t really missed Tobias Harris too much.  They went into Boston and won 123-112 as 11.5-point underdogs, lost at Minnesota, and then crushed Phoenix 134-107 at home.  Now they return from their break and hit the road to take on the hapless Memphis Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies are 23-36 on the season with nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way.  They traded Marc Gasol prior to the break.  The Grizzlies are just 5-20 SU in their last 20 games overall, and basically they are being asked to win this game SU to cover this 2-point spread.  Not to mention, the Grizzlies are without both Kyle Anderson and Jonas Valanciunas, and they could be without Jaren Jackson Jr. who is questionable. 

The Clippers are 16-5 ATS as road favorites over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Memphis is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 after scoring more than 100 points in its previous game.  The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on three or more days’ rest.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

20* Rockets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3 

Lebron James is now in full-on playoff mode.  The Lakers sit at 28-29 and three games out of the 8th spot in the Western Conference.  Expect the best from James and company moving forward as they try and make a playoff run. 

After all, James missed 17 games with a groin injury prior to the break.  So he’s actually fresher for the stretch run than he’s used to.  And he should be able to raise the level of play of his teammates, just as he has done everywhere he has gone.  This is a statement game at home against the Houston Rockets Thursday night. 

The Lakers also will be extra motivated to not get swept by the Rockets this season.  They are 0-3 against Houston in their three meetings this year, but they nearly pulled the upset in a 134-138 (OT) loss at Houston in their last meeting, and that was without James.  At home this time around, and with a healthy James back, I think this one will play out in the Lakers’ favor tonight. 

Los Angeles is 23-9 ATS after failing to score the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Houston is 4-14 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on three or more days’ rest.  Bet the Lakers Thursday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Brooklyn Nets were one of the most underrated teams in the NBA prior to the All-Star Break.  They sit at 30-29 overall and in 6th place in the Eastern Conference.  And now they are as healthy as they’ve been basically all season getting several key guys back from injury.  The only key player they are missing now is Spencer Dinwiddie. 

The Blazers have been great at home this season, but they are just 10-15 SU & 10-15 ATS on the road giving up 113.3 points per game.  And Damian Lillard is questionable to play tonight for the Blazers as he recovers from an ankle injury.  Brooklyn is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games overall. 

The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing Brooklyn tonight.  Take the Nets Thursday. 

20* Thunder/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are just ready for the All-Star Break to get here.  They have had to deal with the Anthony Davis trade drama, and it has clearly taken its toll on them.  I don’t expect them to show up at all tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

In their last two games, the Pelicans lost by 9 at Memphis against a Grizzlies team that is clearly tanking.  Then they lost at home to Orlando by 30 in a game they trailed 39-17 after the first quarter.  They clearly weren’t into that game, and they won’t be into this game, either. 

The Thunder are playing as well as anyone in the NBA heading into the All-Star Break and want to carry that momentum in with one final win.  The Thunder are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, beating the likes of Portland (twice) and Milwaukee at home, as well as Houston and Philadelphia on the road.  Plus, the Thunder are expected to get Dennis Schroeder back from a one-game absence due to injury. 

The Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days’ rest.  Oklahoma City is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 trips to New Orleans.  The Thunder are 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Take the Thunder Thursday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks -7 

The New York Knicks have now lost a franchise-record 18 straight games after their 111-126 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  The Knicks are just ready for the All-Star Break to put this part of the season behind them. 

Plus, the Knicks will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are a tired team that won’t have much left in the tank for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  That’s bad news as they’ll be up against a Hawks team that will run them to death as they rank 1st in the NBA in pace. 

That Atlanta team is not tanking.  They have gone 3-3 SU in their last six games with upset road wins over Phoenix and Washington, as well as an upset home win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is a young team that keeps playing together, and they are now as healthy as they have been all season.  They want to go into the break with a win here tonight. 

The Knicks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  That game has blowout written all over it given the Knicks are playing their 5th game in 7 days.  Roll with the Hawks Thursday. 

25* NBA Southeast Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic -3 

The Orlando Magic have clearly been on a mission to get back in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference heading into the All-Star Break.  They’ve gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with each of their last five wins coming by double-digits.  I think this team is playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now, and they don’t want to lose their final game prior to the break to ruin all this good work they’ve put in. 

Now the Magic get to host a struggling Charlotte Hornets team that has gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall with its only victory coming against the lowly Hawks.  It’s a Hornets team that Magic are trailing by 2 games in the Eastern Conference standings, so I would certainly say Orlando needs this win more and will be more motivated. 

Adding to Orlando’s motivation is the fact that is has now lost 13 straight meetings to Charlotte.  You can bet these Magic players will be reminded of that streak heading into this game.  They want to do something about it, and they are finally playing well enough to end this skid now.  It’s also worth noting that the Hornets could be distracted with the All-Star Game coming to Charlotte this year.  I’m sure players are dealing with a lot of off-court distractions right now because of it. 

Charlotte is just 8-20 SU on the road this season and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in road games where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.  They are losing by 9.9 points per game on average in this spot.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one days’ rest.  The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5 

I just don’t think the Bulls are tanking contrary to popular believe.  They have recent road wins over Miami by 16 as 10.5-point dogs and Brooklyn by 19 as 8-point dogs.  And they battled the Bucks last time out, only trailing by 3 with roughly three minutes to go but somehow lost by 13.  I had the Bulls +12 in that game in one of the worst beats I’ve suffered all season. 

But I’m willing to get back on the Bulls today in a game they basically just have to win to cover.  I really like the talent on this team with Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Robin Lopez and Otto Porter Jr., who was a nice get at the trade deadline for the Wizards.  There are certainly a lot worse starting 5’s in the NBA. 

Now they face a Memphis Grizzlies team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a one-point home loss to the Spurs last night.  It’s definitely a hangover spot for them off that tough defeat.  The Grizzlies were sellers at the deadline parting ways with two of their best players in Marc Gasol and Garrett Temple.  They would have traded Mike Conley too, but his absurd contract detracted suitors.  I just don’t trust them much at all the rest of the season. 

Memphis is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Memphis is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off a loss to a division opponent.  Take the Bulls Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +6 

The Detroit Pistons have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their four wins have come by an average of 16.3 points per game.  They now sit at 26-29 on the season and in 8th place in the Eastern Conference, a game ahead of the Miami Heat. 

Now the Pistons are rested and ready to go tonight wanting to carry their momentum into the All-Star Break as this is their final game prior to the break.  The Pistons will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days and will be laying it all on the line to get a win in Boston.  And they are as healthy as they’ve been all season, which has been a key to their great play of late. 

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are ripe for the picking.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a huge win in Philadelphia last night.  That sets them up for a letdown spot as well after pulling the upset.  And the Celtics will be without Kyrie Irving tonight, plus key backup PG Terry Rozier is doubtful. 

Detroit won 113-104 at home as 2-point dogs and only lost 105-108 as 8.5-point road dogs in its last two meetings with Boston this season.  The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Detroit is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Boston.  The Pistons are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Celtics are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They are coming off four straight losses straight up and seven straight ATS losses.  But they’ve faced a brutal road schedule with four straight losses at Sacramento, Golden State, Portland and Utah.  And it’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight. 

Now, the Spurs face a team they can handle in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are just 23-34 this season.  But the Grizzlies are getting some respect from oddsmakers as they have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  But their three wins came against the Pelicans, Timberwolves and Knicks, while they lost by 22 at Oklahoma City. 

The Spurs also have had some time to rest and recover as they come in on two days’ rest.  The Grizzlies clearly signaled they were tanking when they traded away Marc Gasol and Garrett Temple, and they still have a ton of injuries to deal with right now with Kyle Anderson and Omri Casspi out.  They just don’t have the horses now to compete with a team the caliber of San Antonio. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 points or more in their last there games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 41-12 (77.4%) ATS since 1996. 

The Spurs lost 86-96 at Memphis in their last meeting.  Well, that sets the Spurs up for a great spot tonight.  San Antonio is 16-1 ATS when revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.  Take the Spurs Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +12 

Because the Milwaukee Bucks are 41-14 SU & 32-21-2 ATS this season and have the best record in the Eastern Conference, they are starting to warrant a lot of respect from the betting public.  When that happens, these teams become overvalued, and I think that’s the case for the Bucks right now. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Bucks, who are now being asked to go on the road and lay a whopping 12 points to the Chicago Bulls.  This is a Bulls team that is not obviously tanking like some of these other teams with bad records.  In fact, they probably have the most talent of any of the perceived tanking teams. 

In their last five games alone, the Bulls have gone o the road and pulled off some impressive blowout upset victories.  They went into Miami and won by 16 as 10.5-point dogs and they won at Brooklyn by 19 as 8-point dogs.  And they just added more talent before the trade deadline by snagging Otto Porter Jr. from the Washington Wizards.  I now like this lineup of Porter Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Zach Lavine, Kris Dunn and Robin Lopez quite a bit. 

Chicago only lost 113-116 as 15-point road dogs in its last meeting with the Bucks in Milwaukee.  The Bucks are 26-50 ATS in their last 76 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - who score more than 102 PPG against an opponent that gives up more than 102 PPG, after scoring 90 points or less are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets +5.5 

I believe the Indiana Pacers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers, who are missing Victor Oladipo and have managed to play well without him of late, but it won’t continue for much longer. 

The Charlotte Hornets are battling to get into the playoffs at 28-29 this season.  They have played some of their best basketball of the season of late, going 8-5 SU & 7-5-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And they come in fresh and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  Charlotte has two days off after this, so it will be 100% zoned in and focused on beating Indiana tonight. 

Indiana is a tired team right now as it will be playing its 8th game in 13 days.  Plus, the Pacers could easily be looking ahead to their huge showdown with Milwaukee at home on Wednesday.  And both Myles Turner and Doug McDermott are questionable to play tonight for the Pacers. 

The Pacers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five gams after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Take the Hornets Monday. 

20* Lakers/76ers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +7 

Once again, LeBron James and the Lakers are big road underdogs to one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference.  We saw how that worked out on Thursday as the Lakers pulled the upset at 9.5-point road dogs at Boston.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest to get ready for the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The 76ers are a team in transition right now after just making the trade for Tobias Harris.  While it was a good trade and will work out for them in the long run, it’s going to take some time to implement him into their scheme.  There’s only one ball to go around, and it will be an interesting dynamic for a while with four guys who like to have the ball in their hands in Simmons, Butler, Emdiid and now Harris.  Plus, Embiid could sit today with an illness. 

The Lakers want to avenge their 105-121 home loss to the 76ers as 7.5-point dogs on January 29th less than two weeks ago.  But neither LeBron nor Kyle Kuzma played in that game.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. 

The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Philadelphia.  The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Lakers are 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 120 points or more this season. Philadelphia is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Lakers Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +4.5 

The Dallas Mavericks continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers today.  This despite the fact that they’ve been one of the best home teams in the league, going 19-8 SU & 19-8 ATS at home this season.  Not to mention, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall coming in. 

Portland is just 10-13 SU & 10-13 ATS on the road this season.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late.  The home team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings.  Dallas won 111-102 as 2-point favorites and 115-109 as 7-point dogs in its last two home meetings with Portland. 

Dallas is 11-2 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Mavericks are 14-4 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The Mavericks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 meetings with Portland and 7-2 ATS in its last nine home meetings.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -11.5 

The New York Knicks are more blatantly tanking than any other team in the NBA.  They just suffered their 15th straight loss last night in a 103-120 setback at Detroit.  They has just lost to the Pistons the game before, so you’d think they would show some pride.  Nope.  Now the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back with a short-handed roster. 

The Knicks have also lost 23 of their past 24 and 28 of their past 30 to fall to an NBA-worst 10-44.  Not to mention, New York has lost 15 straight home games.  They haven’t even been competitive lately as each of their last five losses have come by 12 points or more.  And that’s all it would take for the Raptors to cover tonight. 

Toronto is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with an 18-point home win over the Clippers, a 12-point road win at the 76ers and an 18-point road win at the Hawks.  Look for them to make easy work of the tanking Knicks tonight. 

Toronto is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with the Knicks with all five wins coming by 13 points or more and by an average of a whopping 20.6 points per game.  The Raptors are 14-4 ATS in road games off two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Raptors Saturday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +8 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Milwaukee Bucks, who have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATSin their last five games overall.  But the only impressive win was their road win at Toronto while the other four wins came against teams with losing records.  And the Bucks are banged up right now with Giannis likely to play in spite of a knee injury, but Khris Middleton, Donte DiVincenzo and Nikola Mirotic are all out. 

Now the Bucks have to go on the road and face a Dallas Mavericks team that has been undervalued at home all season.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 19-7 SU & 19-7 ATS at home this year.  They don’t have to win this game to cover, they just have to stay within 8 points.  I realize Luka Doncic is questionable, but he has been listed as questionable a lot this season and seems to play every time.  I think that will be the case again tonight. 

The Mavericks aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers despite going a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  And they want revenge from a 10-point loss at Milwaukee as 10.5-point dogs on January 21st which started this streak.  Now they are catching 8 points at home in the rematch when if you adjust for home-court advantage they should only be catching 4.5 to 5.5 points.  That just shows how overvalued the Bucks are right now. 

The Mavericks are 14-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season, and they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog this season.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucks.  Add the 9-1, 8-0, 7-0 & 6-0 systems together and we have a 30-1 system backing Dallas tonight.  Roll with the Mavericks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9 

I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will want revenge on the Nets, who they have already lost to three times this season.  So they’ll be looking to avoid the season sweep.  And they just played the Nets on January 29th in a 117-122 road loss as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they are catching 9 points in the rematch, which is simply too much. 

The Bulls are rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  And they just traded for Otto Porter Jr., who could make his debut tonight and will add to an already very talented roster.  We should get a big effort from the Bulls, who have been impressive in their last four road games, upsetting Miami by 16 and Cleveland by 16 and only losing by 5 to Brooklyn and by 7 at Charlotte. 

The Nets are banged up right now.  They are missing Spencer Dinwiddie and Jared Dudley.  Yes, Caris LeVert is expected to return from a two-month absence, but he won’t play much tonight.  And this is certainly a tired Nets team as they will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.   

The Nets are coming off two huge games against the Bucks and Nuggets, and have Toronto on deck, so this is a sandwich spot as well.  They won’t be all that motivated to beat the Bulls for a 4th time this season.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been playing some very competitive basketball of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall, which includes upset victories over the Bulls as 5-point dogs and the Wizards as 8-point dogs.  They also only lost by 6 to Miami as 8.5-point dogs and by 7 to Boston as 10-point dogs. 

The Wizards have no business being this big of favorites over the Cavaliers.  They just traded away their second-best player in Otto Porter Jr.  They clearly aren’t concerned with winning too many games moving forward.  The Wizards are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes upset losses to the Cavs and Hawks, and three blowout losses by 13 points or more. 

The Cavs are rested and ready to go, too.  They will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days today.  The Wizards are a tired team as they will be playing their 9th game in 16 days and they play again tomorrow night in Chicago.  It’s just a mentally, beat down team right now that is way too vulnerable to be asked to win this game by double-digits to beat us tonight. 

Washington is 2-10 ATS after allowing 130 or more points this season.  The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days’ rest.  The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -1.5 

The Orlando Magic are playing some great basketball right now.  They are flying under the radar because they have had some tough luck in close games.  Each fo their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer, including five by 5 points or less.  And their last three wins have come by an average of 13 points per game.  So, despite being 5-8 in their last 13 games, they have actually only been outscored by one point during this stretch. 

Minnesota is struggling right now due to injuries.  They are missing their top three guards in Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones, as well as key 3-and-D man Robert Covington.  The Timberwolves are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only win coming at home against lowly Memphis 99-97 in overtime. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  And Orlando basically just has to win to cover tonight.  That shouldn’t be a problem against a Timberwolves team that is just 8-18 SU on the road this season. 

Minnesota is 21-51 ATS in its last 72 games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Memphis was basically missing everyone, and still beat Minnesota last time out.  The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Orlando is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 meetings with Minnesota, including 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +3 

The Sacramento Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  Their win total was 24.5 coming into the season.  They already have 28 wins and surpassed their win total two weeks ago.  Sacramento fans are excited about this team and continue to pack the Golden 1 Center because of it. 

That’s why the Kings have had so much success at home of late.  Indeed, the Kings are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  Their only loss came to the Warriors by 4 as 8-point dogs.  They have upset the likes of the Blazers, 76ers and Spurs at home during this stretch. 

Now I expect the Kings to upset the Rockets, who are still without Clint Capela and could be without Eric Gordon, who is questionable.  The wear and tear on James Harden is starting to show despite the fact that he keeps putting up big numbers.  The Rockets are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 

I expect both Willie Cauley-Stein and Marvin Bagley to dominate the paint with Capela out, which is going to be a key to victory here.  Bagley has missed 14 games due to injury, but they’ve been a different team since he returned.  Bagley is averaging 17.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game in his last six games as he’s had his minutes steadily increase. 

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Houston is 3-13 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 2-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Sacramento is 15-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, including 10-2 ATS at home when he line is +3 to -3.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -4.5 

The Dallas Mavericks made the trade with the Knicks at a great time.  They’ve been off since Saturday, February 2nd.  That has allowed their new players from the Knicks to get in some important practice time and get accustomed to their new city.  They should come out like gangbusters tonight against the Charlotte Hornets. 

While the Mavericks are on three days’ rest, the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  This is a tired Hornets team that will also be without backup PG Tony Parker, who suffered a back injury last night against the Clippers. 

The Mavericks have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 18-7 SU & 18-7 ATS at home.  The Hornets are just 7-18 SU & 11-14 ATS on the road, giving up a whopping 115.4 points per game on 48% shooting on the highway.  Dallas beat Charlotte 122-84 on the road in their first meeting this season. 

The Mavericks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Dallas is 13-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in home games off a win this season.  The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 207 

The injuries the Timberwolves and Grizzlies are dealing with right now are getting comical.  These injuries have affected these teams offensively more than anything, especially the Timberwolves.  Minnesota is without its top three guards in Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones.  They are also without Robert Covington. 

The Grizzlies are without Kyle Anderson, Omri Casspi, Garrett Temple, Dillon Brooks and Chandler Parsons.  They’ve managed to stay competitive recently despite these injuries, but they’ve really had to slow the pace down and win with defense.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall with combined scores of 187, 196, 192 and 180 points. 

The Grizzlies and Timberwolves always seem to play in low-scoring games.  In fact, they have combined for 207 or fewer points in nine straight meetings, making for an 8-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 207-point total set.  And they just played each other on January 30th in a 99-97 (OT) victory by the Timberwolves.  That game was tied 93-93 at the end or regulation for 186 combined points.  And these teams are obviously very familiar with one another now, which favors another low-scoring game. 

Memphis is 9-1 UNDER at home with ta line of +3 to -3 this season.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 UNDER off two consecutive road games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Timberwolves last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 

The Indiana Pacers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, not to mention their 5th different city in 7 days.  This is about as tough of a situation as you will find in the NBA. 

Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they just recently lost their best player in Victor Oladipo.  They have been able to get by the Pelicans and Heat for their two wins since losing him, but are still just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games without him.  They don’t have the firepower to beat the Lakers tonight without him given the tough rest spot. 

The Lakers come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest.  LeBron James is healthy now and rested last game, so he will be primed for a big effort.  And the Lakers are about as healthy as they’ve been all season right now as the only key player they are missing right now is Lonzo Ball, but his absence is not too big of a deal now with a healthy Rajon Rondo. 

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Lakers) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -2 

The New Orleans Pelicans are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here as only 2-point underdogs to the Indiana Pacers.  It’s because they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with covers against Houston, Denver and San Antonio.  But they trailed by 20-plus points in the 4th quarter against the Spurs before Popovich pulled starters and they made a big comeback. 

Those three covers were surprising because the Pelicans are missing five of their six best players in Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton and E’Twuan Moore.  It’s possible to play well for a few games without so many players, but in the long run it’s going to catch up to them.  And I think it catches up to them tonight. 

The Pacers picked up their first win since losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury with an impressive 95-88 win at Miami last time out.  But keep in mind they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 games and their only home game was against Golden State.  This will be their easiest test here since losing Oladipo, and I look for them to take advantage by burying the short-handed Pelicans. 

Indiana is 30-9 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 5-15 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 3-12 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  New Orleans is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games off an ATS win.  Roll with the Pacers Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks -7 

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the best team in the NBA this season.  They are 38-13 on the year.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  They simply have not weaknesses. 

The Brooklyn Nets are extremely vulnerable right now due to injuries.  They are without Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Allen Crabbe and Jared Dudley.  Joe Harris is questionable tonight with a hip injury.  They lost by 13 at Orlando last time out, and I just don’t think they have enough firepower with all of these injuries to keep up with the Bucks tonight. 

Milwaukee won its lone meetings with Brooklyn 129-115 this season.  They led by 19 at halftime and coasted in the second half.  The Bucks are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Nets with their 11 wins coming by an average of 12.2 points per game. 

The Bucks are 16-4 ATS in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last three seasons.  Milwaukee is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Bucks are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Brooklyn.  Milwaukee is 24-8-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings overall.  Take the Bucks Monday. 

20* 76ers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +3.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are in the ultimate letdown spot.  They just ended the Warriors’ winning streak with a 113-104 road victory as 8-point underdogs.  After beating the defending champs, there’s no chance the 76ers show up tonight in Sacramento.  They probably spent the last couple nights partying celebrating that victory. 

Making matters worse for the 76ers is the fact that they’ll be without two starters tonight in J.J. Redick *18.3 PPG) and Wilson Chandler (6.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG).  The 76ers lack a bench, so without those two they’ll be extremely short-handed.  And the Kings will test them because they play at the 2nd-fasted pace in the NBA. 

The Kings are rested and ready to go as they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Sacramento has been playing really well at home of late, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  They won by 22 over Atlanta, by 8 over Portland, by 7 over Charlotte, by 10 over Detroit, by 16 over Orlando and only lost by 4 to the Warriors as 8-point dogs. 

The Kings are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Philadelphia is 4-14 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Sacramento is 11-3 ATS in home games off a home game this season. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Philadelphia) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Saturday.   

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2 

It’s safe to say the Orlando Magic will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday night.  They have lost twice to Brooklyn in the last two weeks 115-117 at home and 110-114 on the road.  Those were both gut-wrenching losses.  They want revenge in a big way tonight. 

The Nets are coming off a tough 114-117 loss at San Antonio.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat, and they certainly won’t be all that motivated to beat the Magic for a 3rd time in two weeks.  It’s also a sandwich game for them with the Milwaukee Bucks on deck, a game they could easily be looking ahead to. 

The Nets are without Caris LeVert, Allen Crabbe, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jared Dudley.  The Dinwiddie loss is huge because he single-handedly beat the Magic the first time these teams played.  What made the Nets so dangerous was having Dinwiddie (17.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) and D’Angelo Russell (19.6 PPG, 6.4 APG) being interchangeable.  Russell now has to do too much. 

Orlando is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four Saturday games.  Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games.  The favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Magic Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -6 

The Charlotte Hornets are coming off one of their worst losses of the season.  They lost 94-126 at Boston last time out.  Now they return home highly motivated for a victory against the struggling Memphis Grizzlies. 

This is a Grizzlies team that is just 2-16 SU & 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  It’s also a Grizzlies team that is looking to trade its two best players in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.  Not to mention, Conley is unlikely to play with a knee injury, and both Garrett Temple and Omri Casspi are out.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable with a quad injury as well. 

The Hornets simply own the Grizzlies.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with them with the four wins coming by a whopping 24.0 points per game.  That includes their 118-107 win in Memphis in their first meeting this season.  This is a tired Grizzlies team that will be playing their 9th game in 15 days, while the Hornets will be playing just their 5th game in 12 days. 

Memphis is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The Hornets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Friday games.  Memphis is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto -2.5 

The Toronto Raptors lost their first two meetings this season with the Bucks.  But they won their 3rd meeting on the road earlier this month, and now they’ll be highly motivated to even the season series in what could be a possible tiebreaker for two teams fighting for the No. 1 seed.  I look for the Raptors to get the job done at home tonight. 

Toronto is in a dream spot here having three days’ rest to get ready for the Bucks.  They last played on Sunday in Dallas.  Now they’re rested and back home, where they are 21-4 this season and outscoring opponents by 8.9 points per game. 

Milwaukee is in a much tougher spot here as it will be playing its 3rd road game in 5 days.  The Bucks are in the midst of a five-game road trip here.  And the Raptors are as healthy as they’ve been in a long time as they are now just missing Jonas Valanciunas, who is expected to return soon. 

Milwaukee is 8-18 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Toronto is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Bucks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2.5 

The Indiana Pacers are now 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS since losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury.  They lost to the lowly Grizzlies, were blown out at home by the Warriors by 32, and were blown out on the road by the Wizards by 18. 

Now the Pacers are short-handed without both Oladipo and Tyreke Evans, and they have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they’ll be up against a highly motivated Orlando Magic team on the road here. 

The Magic have lost four straight, but all four came by single-digits, and each fo their last seven losses have come by 10 points or less.  They’ve simply had some tough luck in close games of late.  I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, tired Pacers tonight. 

Plays against road teams (Indiana) - a good team that outscores their opponents by 3-plus points per game, after scoring 90 points or less are 81-41 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its lsat seven road games.  The Magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Magic Thursday. 

15* Jazz/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 218.5 

This will already be the 4th and final meeting between the Jazz and Blazers this season.  They are obviously very familiar with one another, especially after just playing on January 21st.  Each of the first three meetings in this series have seen 213 or fewer combined points. 

When you look even further back at the head-to-head history, it’s easy to see that this number has been inflated.  Indeed, the Jazz and Blazers have combined for 217 or fewer points in 11 consecutive meetings now, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER when pertaining to this 218.5-point total.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings as well. 

The Jazz rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the month of January.  The Blazers have also been solid this month, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency.  Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the league in pace this month. 

The UNDER is 15-7-1 in Jazz last 23 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Portland is 31-12 UNDER when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games over the last two seasons.  Quin Snyder is 51-28 UNDER vs. division opponents as the coach of Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a tough six-game road trip.  They’ve had plenty of time to recover with two days’ rest and they’ll be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days tonight.  They are certainly happy to be back home, where they are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. 

Atlanta is getting too much respect for its upset win over the Clippers as 6.5-point road dogs on Monday.  But the Clippers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and I was actually on the Hawks in that game.  I’ll gladly fade them tonight in a spot that is much better for the Kings. 

Sacramento won 146-115 in its first meeting at Atlanta.  The Kings also won 105-90 at home in their final meeting last year.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Kings are 10-2 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by 10.7 points per game on average.  Sacramento is 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. 

Atlanta is 9-24 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games overall the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 9-18 ATS off a road game this season.  Sacramento is 22-10 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Sacramento is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

I think this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on Orlando and ’sell high’ on Oklahoma City tonight.  The Magic are catching 5.5 points at home against the Thunder and will have an excellent chance to win this game outright, but we’ll take the points for some insurance. 

We’re buying low on a Magic team that has lost six of its last seven coming in.  But they’ve had some hard-luck losses during this stretch.  They lost by 5 in OT at Detroit, by 2 to Brooklyn, but 4 at Brooklyn, by 4 to Washington and by 5 at Houston.  The only time they lost by more than 5 during this stretch was when they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in a 10-point loss to the Bucks as 10-point dogs. 

We’ll sell high on a Thunder team that has won five straight coming in.  But the Thunder had lost five of their previous six before that.  And four of their last five wins have come by single-digits.  This is clearly a letdown spot for the Thunder as well off their huge 118-112 home win over the Bucks on Sunday.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight. 

Orlando just has a knack for playing Oklahoma City tough.  Indeed, the Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Magic Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +6 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days here.  They haven’t had two days off in a row since January 2-3.  This is a very tired Clippers team right now. 

The Atlanta Hawks are rested and ready to go.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 5th game in 13 days here tonight.  They won at Chicago 121-101 and only lost 111-120 at Portland in the first two games of this seven-game road trip. 

The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Hawks Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8.5 

The Houston Rockets are starting to wear down with James Harden having to shoulder too much of the load with both Clint Capela and Chris Paul out. And they certainly should not be 8.5-point favorites over the Magic tonight. 

The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost at home to the Nets in overtime and needed OT to beat the Lebron-less Lakers at home as well.  They lost by 28 at Philadelphia, and they needed some last-second heroics from Eric Gordon to beat the lowly Knicks by 4.  They also beat the Raptors by 2 at home during this stretch. 

The Magic just beat the Rockets 116-109 as 5.5-point home dogs on January 13th.  The Magic haven’t lost by more than 7 to the Rockets in five of their last seven meetings.  And they should be able to stay within the number here. 

Houston is 4-13 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Magic are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in their last trips to Houston.  Take the Magic Sunday. 

20* Bucks/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won four straight coming in and are playing some great basketball.  Now they will be highly motivated to beat the best team in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. 

The Thunder are also rested and ready to go tonight coming in on two days’ rest.  The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days’ rest.   

Oklahoma City is 42-20-3 ATS in its last 65 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Milwaukee.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* Raptors/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -1 

James Harden and the Houston Rockets are wearing down.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost in overtime at home to the Nets, needed overtime to beat the Lakers at home, lost by 28 at Philadelphia, and needed some last-second heroics to beat the Knicks on the road.  It hasn’t been a good look for them. 

Now the Rockets have to face one of the top teams in the NBA in the Toronto Raptors tonight.  This is a Raptors team that is getting healthy as they should have everyone available except Jonas Valanciunas tonight.  And it’s rare that they’ve been this healthy. 

The same cannot be said for the Rockets, who haven’t gotten much help outside James Harden, and he’s running on fumes now.  Clint Capela remains out, and Chris Paul is questionable to return tonight.  Whether he does or not, I like the Raptors because Paul won’t play much even if he does finally make his return. 

The Raptors are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets, which includes 129-113 and 115-102 upsets on the road in their two trips to Houston during this span.  Houston is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4 

I always like fading teams after playing the Golden State Warriors.  And that’s the unfavorable spot the Wizards are in tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and it’s not a hangover/letdown spot after facing the Warriors last night.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight. 

This is a Magic team that’s highly motivated for a victory after losing four of their last five games overall.  But three of those losses were by 5 points or fewer, plus a 10-point loss to Milwaukee as 10-point dogs when they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have recent upset home wins over Boston and Houston as well. 

The Wizards are just 6-18 SU & 6-18 ATS on the road this season, getting outscoring by 9.4 points per game on average.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. 

Washington is 3-15 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 106 or more points per game this season.  The Wizards are 2-11 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.  Washington is 17-36 ATS in its last 53 road games dating back to last season.  Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1 

The Lakers have held their own without Lebron James.  Their last three games they’ve been through the gauntlet and have fared well.  They won outright as 10-point road dogs at Oklahoma City, and they led at Houston the entire way before eventually losing in overtime as 7-point dogs.  Sure, they lost by 19 to the Warriors, but the Warriors are mowing down everyone. 

Now the Lakers have had two days’ rest since that loss to the Warriors, and they should be fresh and ready to go at home tonight against the Timberwolves.  They also could get Rajon Rondo back from injury, which would help mitigate the losses of James and Lonzo Ball.  They still have plenty of talent to beat the Timberwolves tonight. 

Minnesota is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall.  They lost by 42 at Philadelphia, were upset at home by San Antonio, and barely won by 2 as 12-point home favorites over Phoenix.  They did go into Phoenix and win and cover, but their two wins during this stretch have been against the worst team in the West in the Suns.  The Timberwolves are just 7-16 SU in road games this season, while the Lakers are 15-10 SU at home. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Lakers Thursday. 

15* Nuggets/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5 

The Utah Jazz had won six straight prior to losing to the Blazers last time out.  I like the fact that they are off a loss here because they should come back motivated at home on National TV with the Denver Nuggets coming to town tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been absolutely enormous in this series.  Indeed, the home team is 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. 

The Jazz also get starting PG Ricky Rubio back from injury tonight.  Denver is 2-12 ATS in road games off two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  Utah is 58-36 ATS in its last 94 home games off an upset loss as a favorite. 

Plays on home teams (Utah) - off a loss to a division opponent against a team that’s off two consecutive covers as a favorite are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1.5 

Fading the Memphis Grizzlies is the best bet you could have made over the last month-plus.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are just 3-17 SU & 3-17 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are starting to get burnt out. 

The Grizzlies will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here.  Six of their last eight losses have come by double-digits.  And now sources say that both Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are available for trade.  I think both veterans want out of this situation, which says a lot for two stalwarts that have been in Memphis forever. 

The Hornets come in on two days’ rest, so they’ll be fresh.  They are playing well coming in.  They have won three of their last four.  They won by 15 at San Antonio as 7-point dogs, and also throttled the Kings by 19 and the Suns by 20 at home.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Indiana. 

The Hornets have had the Grizzlies’ number.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They have won five of the last six meetings straight up.  Memphis is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Grizzlies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5 

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They blew a 20-plus point lead against the Nets at home on Friday, January 18th less than a week ago today.  They lost that game 115-117.  And now they’ll be out for revenge here while catching 6.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

The Magic are playing well enough to where they should not be this big of underdogs in this spot.  They have upset home wins over the Celtics and Rockets, and an upset road win at Atlanta by 19 in their last six games. They lost in overtime at Detroit and obviously lost by two to Brooklyn, and then had to play the Bucks the following night and were competitive throughout before losing by 10 as 10-point dogs at home. 

This has been a very closely-contested series of late, which is another reason to love getting 6.5 points.  Each of the last five meetings were decided by 7 points or less, including four by 5 points or fewer.  And it’s worth noting the Magic get arguably their best player in Aaron Gordon back from a two-game absence tonight due to injury. 

The Magic are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Nets here tonight and back Orlando in revenge mode.  Bet the Magic Wednesday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +5 

I love the situation for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation as the Suns lost a heartbreaker to the Timberwolves 114-116 in Minnesota on Sunday.  Now they get their shot at revenge at home this time around just two days later.  I fully expect them to have their revenge. 

The Suns have played the Timberwolves tough in both meetings this series.  They won 107-99 as 7.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  And they only lost by 2 as 12-point dogs obviously two days ago.  Six players scored in double figures for the Suns in that contest. 

The Timberwolves are just 6-16 SU & 9-13 ATS on the road this season.  They are giving up a whopping 116.3 points per game on 48.1% shooting on the highway this year.  They should not be this heavily favored on the road over the Suns given their road record and the situation. 

The Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Phoenix is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Timberwolves are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  Bet the Suns Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks PK 

It’s safe to say the Atlanta Hawks aren’t tanking.  They have some impressive results over the last few weeks that show they can play with anyone.  And I certainly think they can beat the Magic at home tonight, especially since the Hawks are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Hawks beat the Heat by 24 as 6.5-point home dogs on January 6th.  They followed that up with only a 3-point road loss at Toronto as 13.5-point dogs.  They upset Philadelphia as 10.5-point road dogs on January 11th.  They upset Oklahoma City as 10.5-point home dogs on January 15th.  And last time out they led the Celtics the entire way until the 4th quarter and lost by 8. 

The Magic are starting to show some fatigue.  The will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and their 9th game in 16 days.  They have lost three straight coming in and are just 5-12 SU & 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Orlando is 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games with six of those losses coming by 10 points or more.  Roll with the Hawks Monday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +11.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have lost three straight coming in and will be excited to play the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Mavericks will be rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 3rd game in 8 days. 

The Bucks are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to going 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  But now they are being asked to lay double-digits consistently, and betting on double-digit favorites in the NBA is a quick way to lose a lot of money. 

The Mavericks have owned the Bucks, going 9-2 SU & 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Their two losses came by a combined 8 points with one by 7 and one by a single point.  Asking the Bucks to have to win this game by 12 or more points to cover is simply asking too much. 

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games, in non-conference games are 40-10 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points in this situation have gone 29-6 ATS over the last five years as well.  Take the Mavericks Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -2 

The Detroit Pistons are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They needed OT to beat Orlando a few nights ago, and snuck out a 98-93 victory over the Heat at home last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Sacramento Kings tonight. 

Making matters worse for the Pistons is the fact that the Kings play at the 2nd-fasted pace in the NBA, so they will certainly test Detroit’s tired legs.  And the Pistons have some key injuries with Andre Drummond expected to miss this game, and Ish Smith questionable with a groin injury. 

The Kings come in rested an ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They had their impressive three-game winning streak come to an end with their 95-114 loss at Charlotte last time out, but that was a bad spot for them as the Hornets were out for revenge after losing to them less than a week prior in Sacramento.  I took the Hornets in that game, but I’m on the Kings tonight in a great bounce-back spot. 

Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games when revving a loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The Pistons are losing by 9.0 points per game in this spot.  The Kings beat the Pistons by 10 at home in their first meeting this year.  Sacramento is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, and also 20-6 ATS in its last 26 when playing on one days’ rest.  The road team is 14-6-2 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Bet the Kings Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  Playing the Pacific Northwest gives them that advantage, plus their fans are always loyal.  They have gone 19-7 SU & 16-10 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game. 

The New Orleans Pelicans are just 6-18 SU & 9-14-1 ATS on the road this season.  The Pelicans are coming off a tough 140-147 road loss to the defending champion Warriors, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  I always like fading teams after they play the Warriors because it’s impossible for them to be as emotionally invested as they were against the Warriors, meaning it’s a hangover spot whether win or lose. 

Portland is 10-1 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  The Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Friday games.  The Blazers are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.  Roll with the Blazers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic PK 

The Orlando Magic are quietly playing real well over the past week.  They have upset home wins over Boston and Houston, and they lost in overtime at Detroit.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, which also includes an upset win over Toronto.  I fully expect the Magic to be able to take care of business at home tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. 

This is a big-time letdown spot for the Nets.  They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Boston and at Houston.  They way they won at Houston makes this a letdown spot.  They forced overtime, were trailing by 7 in the extra period, and managed to go on a 10-0 run to win 145-142 over James Harden and company.  It’s only human nature to have a letdown off such a big win like that. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Magic are 8-0 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Take the Magic Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2 

I love the situation for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They return home following a tough six-game road trip in which they managed to pull off two upsets at Phoenix and at San Antonio.  And now they’ve had two full days to recover and rest. 

They have also had extra time to get ready for revenge on Sacramento.  The Hornets lost to the Kings on the 5th game of that trip 97-104 on January 12th just five days ago.  Well, they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing in Portland the previous night, so it wasn’t a good spot for them.  This is a great spot for the Hornets now. 

The Hornets are 14-8 at home this season, while the Kings are 9-11 on the road.  The Hornets have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven meetings with the Kings.  And given the chance at quick revenge here tonight, I fully expect Kemba Walker and company to get the job done at home. 

Charlotte is 10-2 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games this season.  The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Sacramento is 16-39-3 ATS in its last 58 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Hornets Thursday. 

20* 76ers/Pacers TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana -2.5 

At 29-14 this season, the Indiana Pacers are legitimately one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  They are just 2.5 games out of first place in the East.  But for two full seasons now, this team has not gotten the respect they deserve.  And I certainly think this is a cheap price on them as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. 

No team is playing better than the Pacers over the past month and a half.  The Pacers are 16-4 SU & 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They come in rested and ready to go tonight as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days with the only other game resulting in a 34-point blowout home win over the Suns. 

The 76ers are in a tough spot here.  They are coming off an emotional home win over the Minnesota Timberwolves as Jimmy Butler got revenge on his former team.  It’s a 76ers team that has been a money burner on the road, going 10-12 SU & 8-14 ATS on the highway this year while losing by 4.6 points per game.  The Pacers are 15-5 SU & 11-9 ATS at home, winning by 10.3 points per game on average. 

The Pacers are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the 76ers, including their 113-101 road win over Philadelphia in their last meeting this season.  The 76ers are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more this season, losing by a whopping 18.9 points per game on average.  Take the Pacers Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers had the best record in the Western Conference through November.  But then they went through a rough patch with some injuries in early December.  Once Lou Williams came back, they proceeded to go on a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run from late December through early January.   

But the Clippers have since dropped three straight games, and I expect them to be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday night when they host the Utah Jazz.  I think we’re getting good value here with the Clippers as only 1.5-point home favorites because they have lost three straight, while the Jazz have won four straight coming in.   

But those four wins for the Jazz came against the Magic, the Lebron-Less Lakers, the Bulls and the Pistons all at home.  The wins over the Bulls and Pistons in their last two games came down to the wire, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Jazz are playing without their top three point guards in Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and Raul Neto. 

Plays against underdogs who are coming off 3 or more consecutive wins, who win between 51% and 60% of their games playing another winning team are 77-39 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Utah is 15-28 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.   I think this is a good time to 'buy low' on the Clippers and 'sell high' on the Jazz tonight.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday. 

20* Raptors/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -2 

The Boston Celtics come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight, but all three came on the road.  Now they’re back home with Toronto coming to down on National TV.  Look for the Celtics to bounce back in a big way tonight. 

The Celtics also have some good injury news as Kyrie Irvin returns to the lineup tonight, and Marcus Smart and Aaron Baynes could both be available as well.  The Raptors are missing Jonas Valanciunas, and OG Anunoby, and could be without Fred VanVleet and C.J. Miles. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings.  The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  And Boston basically just has to win this game to cover the small 2-point spread. 

The Celtics are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 home games overall.  Boston is 12-3 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday. 

20* Timberwolves/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +6.5 

Jimmy Butler faces his former team in the Minnesota Timberwolves here for the first time tonight.  It’s pretty easy to see which team will be more motivated.  Butler pushed his way out, thinking the Timberwolves didn’t have the pieces to win a championship.  Well, they’ve been just fine without him, and they’ll want to prove that in a big way tonight. 

The Timberwolves are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have been playing with a ton of energy since interim coach Ryan Saunders took over for Tom Thibodeau.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest to get ready for the 76ers. 

Philadelphia is not playing well enough at all to warrant being this big of a favorite.  The 76ers are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost by 17 as 3.5-point road favorites at Washington, were upset at home by Atlanta as 10.5-point favorites, and barely escaped with a 3-point win at New York as 9-point favorites. 

Plays against home teams (Philadelphia) - in a game involving two average teams (-3/+3 PPG differential) after 42 or more games, off a close win by 3 points or less are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Timberwolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 gams vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday. 

15* Pelicans/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight, which put to a halt a great run they were on in going 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 games.  I expect them to start a new winning streak with a win and cover at home over the Pelicans tonight. 

The Clippers have held serve on their home court this year, going 14-7 SU & 13-8 ATS in their 21 games in Los Angeles.  The Pelicans have really struggled on the road, going 5-17 SU & 8-14 ATS in their 22 games away from New Orleans. 

New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games this season.  The Pelicans are 3-13 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Clippers are 17-7 ATS as favorites this season.  New Orleans is 1-14 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or more of their attempts this season.  Take the Clippers Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5 

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They currently sit at 22-21 and have been playing some of their best basketball here of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They haven’t lost a game by double-digits in any of their last 12 games, so they have been competitive night in and night out. 

I love the situation for the Kings tonight.  They are rested after having yesterday off.  The Kings play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA, so they will certainly test the tired legs of the Portland Trail Blazers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss in altitude in Denver last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight. 

Plays on favorites (Sacramento) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Sacramento is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  Bet the Kings Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks +10 

The Atlanta Hawks want to avenge one of their worst losses of the season to the Milwaukee Bucks just over a week ago.  They lost 112-144 at Milwaukee as 13.5-point dogs on January 4th.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch, and I expect a much better effort from them. 

The Hawks have played a lot better since that defeat.  They are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They blasted the Heat 106-82 as 6.5-point home dogs in their only home game during this stretch.  They only lost by 3 at Toronto as 13.5-point dogs, and upset the 76ers by 2 as 10.5-point road dogs.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back. 

The Bucks are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  Giannis missed last game with a hip injury, and although he’s supposed to return tonight, I expect the Bucks to be cautious with him.  Eric Bledsoe is dealing with a hamstring injury.  The Hawks get Taurean Prince back from injury and Jeremy Lin is probable as well.  Prince (15.0 PPG) has missed the last 18 games with an ankle injury. 

Milwaukee is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who allow 110-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 25-48 ATS in their last 73 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Plays on underdogs (Atlanta) - revenging a same-season loss, off a huge upset win as a road dog of 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Hawks Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They enter play Saturday at 21-21 and in the thick of the playoff race in the Western Conference.  Even when they lose games, they are competitive now. 

That’s evident by the fact that their last six losses have all come by single-digits, and they have come against the likes of the Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Warriors and Suns.  Five of those six teams are playoff squads in the Western Conference.  They had a chance to win all six of those games in the closing minutes. 

The Charlotte Hornets are really struggling right now.  They are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are coming off a 96-127 loss in Portland last night, making this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them.  They are now just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last six road games, losing four times by 13 points or more.  They will now be playing their 5th consecutive road game as they continue this brutal six-game trip. 

The Kings will certainly test the Hornets’ tired legs as they play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA.  The Hornets are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Charlotte is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Kings are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, including a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes. Roll with the Kings Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +2 

This is a very tough spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their home loss to the Dallas Mavericks last night.  And now they have to play the Pelicans, who will test their tired legs as they play at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA. 

That pace has gotten even faster since getting starting PG Elfrid Payton back from injury.  The Pelicans also get Nikola Mirotic back from injury, and now they are as healthy as they’ve been all season.  This is going to be a dangerous team moving forward, and that has already started to show as the Pelicans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 35, 19 and 16 points. 

The Pelicans, conversely, are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing on two days’ rest, and this will also be just their 4th game in 10 days.  It will be the 8th game in 14 days for the Timberwolves for comparison’s sake, so it’s easy to see them starting to wear down now. 

New Orleans is 27-13 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on two days rest.  New Orleans is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Timberwolves are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 

Two teams with huge home/road splits square off in Minnesota tonight.  The Timberwolves have certainly been taking care of their home court this season, going 14-6 SU & 13-7 ATS in Minnesota.  Dallas has been awful on the road, going 3-18 SU. 

The Timberwolves are playing some great basketball coming into this game.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 17 over Orlando and by 22 over the Lakers, both at home.  They also went on the road and upset the Thunder as 8.5-point dogs.  Yet, they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers here as only 4.5-point home favorites. 

The Mavericks are not playing well, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their only win coming at home against Phoenix, which has the worst record in the Western Conference.  They lost by 21 at Boston and by 10 at home to the Lakers.  They were down 15-plus in the 4th quarter against the 76ers but only lost by 6.  The Mavs are just 4-11 SU in their last 15 games overall. 

Minnesota is a perfect 10-0 ATS in January home games over the last two seasons.  They are outscoring the opposition by a whopping 16.6 points pre game in these January home games.  The favorite is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Timberwolves Friday. 

20* Pacers/Knicks ESPN No-Brainer on New York +9 

The Knicks have already lost twice to the Pacers this season, so they’ll be playing with double revenge.  They lost by 6 at home and by 11 on the road, so they were competitive in both games.  And now they are catching 9 points at home tonight, which is simply too much. 

The Knicks should be motivated not only for revenge, but also because this is a National TV game on ESPN, and they are rarely on National TV.  They also come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  I expect one of their best efforts of the season tonight. 

The Pacers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They will also be playing their 5th straight road game, and in their 5th different city in 8 days.  It’s a brutal scheduling spot for them.  It’s worth noting that two of their best players are questionable to play tonight in Myles Turner (shoulder) and Darren Collison (leg). 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Knicks are 3-1 SU in their last four home meetings with the Pacers with their only loss coming by 6 points.  The home team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings, and Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to New York.  The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  New York is 36-17 ATS in its last 54 Friday games.  Bet the Knicks Friday. 

15* Pistons/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They have gone just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But all six losses came by single-digits as they were in every game with a chance to win in the 4th quarter.  And five of the losses have come against playoff teams in the Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets and Warriors. 

Now the Kings get a team they can handle tonight in the Detroit Pistons, who are 4-15 SU & 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  It’s a tired Detroit team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days after a 100-113 road loss to the Lebron-less Lakers last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Kings, who play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA and will test their tired legs tonight. 

Sacramento is 15-6 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  The Kings are 12-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Sacramento is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Roll with the Kings Thursday. 

20* Thunder/Spurs TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 224 

The books have set the number way too high tonight in this battle between the Thunder and Spurs Thursday night.  These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and when they get together it’s usually a defensive battle as we take a look at the recent series history. 

The Thunder rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.4 points per 100 possessions.  The Spurs will control the tempo at home tonight, and they rank 25th in pace at 100.2 possessions per game.  And a big reason for the Spurs’ recent surge that has seen them go 13-4 in their last 17 games has been defense.  The Spurs have allowed 98 or fewer points in nine of their last 16 games.  They are giving up just 103.6 points per game at home this season. 

The Spurs and Thunder have combined for 221 or fewer points in 25 straight meetings.  That makes for a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 224.  More recently, they’ve combined for 205 or fewer points in each fo their last seven meetings, and the UNDER has gone 6-1.  They have averaged just 196.1 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, which is a whopping 28 points less than tonight’s posted total of 224.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Clippers/Nuggets Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +6 

As long as Lou Williams has been healthy and in the lineup, the Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season.  They got off to the best record in the West after about a month with him, then he got hurt and they struggled for a few weeks.  But he returned from injury, and the Clippers have gone 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their 10 games since.  Each of their last six wins have come by 9 points or more. 

The Denver Nuggets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  They have simply been fortunate in close games this season, which is why they are 27-12.  They are only outscoring the opposition by 5.0 points per game on the season.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Nuggets while they have the best record in the Western Conference.  They have gone just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall as they haven’t been able to meet the massive expectations they’ve set for themselves. 

The Clippers are 12-3 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 8-0 ATS in its last eight when its opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the Clippers Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +9.5 

The Bulls are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season.  It’s no surprise that they are starting to cover some spreads and be more competitive.  Indeed, the Bulls are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall coming into this showdown with the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They are well-rested and ready to go playing on two days’ rest as well. 

The Bulls have been doing their best work on the road of late.  Chicago is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  That includes outright upsets at San Antonio 98-93 as 9-point dogs, at Cleveland 112-92 as 1-point dogs and at Washington 101-92 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also gave the Raptors are run for their money in a 89-95 loss at 10.5-point dogs. 

Portland will be playing its 4th game in 6 days tonight.  The Blazers are starting to get bored playing five of their last six games at home.  They failed to cover as 11.5-point favorites against the Knicks in their last home game, and I think they won’t be exactly excited to play the Bulls tonight, either. 

Chicago is 13-3 ATS in road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 19-8 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last three years.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Plays against home favorites (Portland) - who score 102 or more points pre game against a team that scores 98-102 PPG, after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games are 71-34 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 205.5 

I like taking the UNDER in games between teams who just recently played each other.  They become familiar with one another, and it favors the defenses.  The Spurs just beat the Grizzlies 108-88 at home on Saturday, January 5th for 196 combined points.  It was one of many low-scoring battles in this series recently. 

Indeed, the Spurs and Grizzlies have combined for 199 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings overall.    They have averaged 195.1 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, so we are essentially getting 10-plus points of value on the UNDER on this 205.5-point total. 

Some things in the NBA change, but the Grizzlies stay the same.  They are a team that relies on defense to win games.  The Grizzlies are 30th in the NBA in pace at 97.6 possessions per game.  The Spurs are 25th at 100.3 possessions per game, so these are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  Memphis is also 27th in offensive efficiency, but 6th in defensive efficiency. 

The Grizzlies have been held to 107 or fewer points in 19 consecutive games, including 99 or fewer in 14 of those 19.  Memphis is 16-4 UNDER off a road game this season.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Wizards UNDER 229 

I always like backing the UNDER in the second game of these home-and-home situations.  The 76ers just beat the Wizards 132-115 at home last night.  Now they will be playing in Washington in a 2nd of a back-to-back situation or both teams.  Both will be tired, and this fatigue plus the familiarity favors the UNDER. 

That 247-point outburst was a rarity between these teams as both shots lights out from the field with the 76ers hitting 55.7% and the Wizards 50%.  Each of the previous three meetings between these teams saw 221 or fewer combined points and averaged just 213.7 combined points.  I think we are getting a ton of value on the UNDER 229 in this game tonight. 

Washington is 19-9 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Wizards last six following a loss by more than 10 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1 

The Miami Heat are coming off one of their worst losses of the season.  They lost 82-106 at Atlanta as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday.  It’s safe to say that the Heat will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the Denver Nuggets. 

It was clearly an aberration for the Heat, who have been playing great basketball for weeks.  Indeed, the Heat are 12-6 SU & 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  And the Heat have owned tonight’s opponent, the Denver Nuggets, in recent meetings.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Nuggets. 

Denver is in an awful spot here tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days here.  They will also be playing in their 4th different city in six days.  Now they’re up against a rested Heat team that will be playing only their 4th game in 9 days.  The Nuggets won’t have much left in the tank off their 113-125 shootout loss in Houston last night. 

Miami is 11-2 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Denver is 0-7 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season.  The Nuggets are 1-9 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS off a combined score of 235 points or more this season.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.