15* Cavs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +9.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers (25-40) are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They trail the Atlanta Hawks by four games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and also have to worry about betting by Detroit and New York. Every game is a must-win for them right now.

They have handled the pressure nicely every since trading for both Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes, which has made them a much stronger team. They just went on the road and beat Phoenix 110-101 as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. This will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they will be well-rested and read to go tonight.

Meanwhile, this will be Golden State's 3rd game in 4 days, and its 7th game in 11 days. This is a tired team right now. Making matters worse is that it will be without one of its best players in Klay Thompson, who will miss this game to travel to the Bahamas for the funeral of his grandmother.

Thompson has averaged 18.8 points and gone 14 of 29 from 3-point range in four career games against Cleveland. The Cavaliers will be out for revenge from their 104-108 (OT) loss to the Warriors in their first meeting of the season on December 29. They let a 17-point lead slip away in that contest, and they clearly weren't as strong of a team then as they are now.

The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Friday games. The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with Cleveland Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +9.5

The Utah Jazz are showing tremendous value as a massive home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. Asking the Clippers to win by double-digits in Salt Lake City is simply asking too much.

Despite being down this season, the Jazz are still a very tough out at home. Just ask the Clippers, who have won their last three visits to Utah by a combined 5 points with finals of 116-114, 105-104 and 107-105. The Jazz will be out for revenge after losing their first two meetings this season in Los Angeles.

The Clippers come into this game way overvalued due to their current 9-game winning streak. Five of those victories have come by single-digits, and if the Clippers were to win tonight, it will be by single-digits, too. They are without their top bench player in Jamal Crawford (18.7 ppg), who is their second-leading scorer. He is doubtful to play tonight after missing the past two games with a calf injury.

The Jazz are an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 23-8 ATS in the last 31 meetings in this series. The Clippers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 visits to Salt Lake City. Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +1

The Memphis Grizzlies (38-26) are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. They have won 11 of their last 14 games overall to move into the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. However, they cannot relax as they lead the No. 9 Phoenix Suns by just two games.

The Grizzlies certainly will not relax tonight as they look to avenge an 87-103 home loss to the Raptors in their first meeting of the season on November 13. That was back when this team was not healthy and playing poorly. They have overcome injuries to Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Tony Allen and are now back to full strength, which is the biggest reason for their excellent play.

Toronto has been undervalued all season and is much better than it has gotten credit for. However, the betting public has caught up to the Raptors finally, and they are no longer overvalued. In fact, they are actually favored in this game tonight to prove it. They have no business being favored against a better team in the Grizzlies, which made it to the Western Conference Finals last year.

Memphis is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Friday games. Memphis is 17-8-1 ATS in its last 26 meetings with Toronto, including 9-4 ATS in its last 13 road meetings. Take the Grizzlies Friday.

20* Lakers/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -16.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder will want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season, a 110-114 road loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on March 9 just five days ago. I look for them to get payback in blowout fashion and to cover even this lofty spread with ease.

The Thunder blew an 18-point lead in that game as Jodie Meeks went off for 42 points to lead the comeback for the Lakers. Unfortunately for L.A., there will be no comeback this time once the Thunder get up big because they will remember that blown lead, and thus they'll keep the foot on the gas for four quarters.

Oklahoma City cannot afford letdowns this time of year as it trails San Antonio by just one game for the No. 1 seed in the West. It's safe to say that the Lakers have the Thunder's full attention tonight not only because of the revenge, but also because of their standing in the West.

The Lakers have dropped seven straight meetings in Oklahoma City by an average of 15.7 points, including a 97-122 loss in their lone visit this season on December 13. Los Angeles has given up an average of 129.5 points per game in its last four games overall as its defense has been non-existent. OKC has scored 114.1 points per game in its last eight games and will score at will tonight.

Los Angeles is 13-27 ATS versus very good teams that outscored their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons. The Lakers are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Oklahoma City is 74-43 ATS after having lost two of its last three games since 1996. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. OKC is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pelicans UNDER 191

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans. Both teams have played in some high-scoring games of late against soft defensive teams, which has inflated the number. It's time to take advantage.

New Orleans has combined with its last three opponents for 216-plus points in each game. Those three opponents: the Lakers, Bucks and Nuggets. They'll be up against one of the best defensive teams in the league tonight in Memphis, which has combined for 200-plus points in its last two games, including a 109-99 victory over high-scoring Portland last night.

These teams are very familiar with one another as this will be their 4th and final meeting of the season. They have combined for 187, 202 and 183 points in the three meetings. Dating back further, the Grizzlies and Pelicans have combined for 187 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings. They have combined for an average of 183.6 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is nearly 8 points less than tonight's posted total.

Memphis is 8-1 to the UNDER in road games versus teams that forced 14 or fewer turnovers this season. The UNDER is 10-3 in Pelicans last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four vs. a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +8.5

There aren't many bettors out there who are willing to throw down big money on the Philadelphia 76ers at this point. That's why their lines will be inflated going forward, and there will be plenty of value with this team. That is certainly the case tonight as a 9-point home dog to the Sacramento Kings.

Sure, it is concerning that the 76ers are riding a 20-game losing streak, but contrary to popular belief, they have not quit. You have to consider that these players are playing for jobs going forward, so they aren't going to pack it in. Also, they hung with the Knicks for three quarters before eventually losing 110-123 on the road last time out, so they have not packed it in.

Sacramento (22-42) has no business being this heavily favored against anyone, especially on the road. The Kings have dropped three straight road games all by double-digits to Toronto (87-99), Brooklyn (89-104) and Detroit (89-99) to fall to 9-23 away from home this year. If either one of these two teams have quit, it's the Kings.

This is a tough spot for Sacramento as well as this will be the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days. This is a tired team right now, while the 76ers come in on one days' rest. Also, this will be just the 3rd game in 7 days for Philadelphia, so it is well-rested and ready to go.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Indeed, Philadelphia is 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Sacramento. It has won each of the last three meetings by 9-plus points each, including a 113-104 road victory as a 9-point underdog on January 2 in their first meeting this season.

Plays against any team (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a loss against a division rival are 84-38 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* Mavericks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 210

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors. I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I foresee to be a low-scoring battle come game's end.

These teams tend to bring out the worst in one another offensively because they match up well with one another defensively. Indeed, the Mavs and Warriors have combined to score 207 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings with the UNDER going 5-1 during that stretch.

Their two meetings this season have been very low-scoring. The Warriors won 95-93 at home for 188 combined points on December 11, while the Mavericks were victorious 103-99 at home on November 27 for 202 combined points. Not counting overtime, the last six meetings have averaged a combined 195.3 points per game, which is roughly 15 points lower than tonight's posted total of 210.

Many don't realize this, but the Warriors actually rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency this season, trailing only the Pacers and Bulls. The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last four vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Warriors last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 20-6 in Warriors last 26 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 25-9 in Warriors last 34 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -5

The Chicago Bulls are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They are coming off their biggest win of the season in a 95-88 home victory in overtime against the defending champion Miami Heat on Sunday. It's only human nature to have a letdown off such a huge victory.

Plus, the Bulls can say they already beat the Spurs 96-86 on the road in their first meeting of the season. Meanwhile, San Antonio will be out for revenge from that defeat. That that it is healthy, it has been playing some of its best basketball of the season.

Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard, and Danny Green have all returned from injuries as the Spurs are back to full strength. It has really paid off as they have won six straight coming into this one with five of those victories coming by 9-plus points. That includes a 111-87 home victory over Miami on March 6. They have had two days' rest since last beating the Magic on Saturday, so they're well-rested and ready to go.

San Antonio is 15-3 ATS in road games versus poor foul drawing teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season. The Spurs are 32-12 ATS after scoring 105-plus points in two straight games over the last three seasons. San Antonio is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Chicago. Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10.5

The Los Angeles Clippers should not be a double-digit favorite over the Phoenix Suns tonight. Los Angeles is simply being overvalued right now due to its 7-game winning streak, and that started to show last time out as it only won 109-108 at home over Atlanta as a 15-point favorite.

Phoenix (36-26) is tied with Memphis for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, so it has a lot to play for right now. Sure, this will be a second of a back-to-back for the Suns after falling 107-113 at Golden State as a 9.5-point underdog Sunday, but fatigue should not be a factor.

That's because the Suns had two days off prior to Sunday after last beating the Thunder on Thursday, March 6. Also, Phoenix will be motivated to avenge a 96-104 home loss to the Clippers less than a week ago on Tuesday, March 4. The Suns won their first visit this season to the Clippers by a final of 107-88 as an 8-point underdog on December 30.

There is a chance that Eric Bledsoe returns tonight as he has been cleared to play, but he'll likely return Wednesday. Also on the injury front, the Clippers are expected to be without second-leading scorer Jamal Crawford (18.7 ppg), and they simply aren't nearly as good of a team without him.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Suns are 20-8 ATS in all road games this season. Take Phoenix Monday.

25* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia 76ers +16

The Philadelphia 76ers represent my strongest play in the Atlantic Division for the entire 2013-14 season Monday. This line has clearly been inflated to the point where there is a ton of value with the road underdog because the betting public wants nothing to do with the 76ers right now.

Indeed, the 76ers come in riding an NBA-high 16-game losing streak. I don't believe they have quit at all, it's just that it has taken time to get used to playing with some new players after trading away a couple starters. This team should start gelling soon because this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they have had plenty of practice time to get used to playing together over the past week.

New York (24-40) should not be this heavily favored against anyone. It is overvalued right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. However, those three games came against teams that would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today. This team has played poorly all season, and they should not be getting this respect because of a brief run of solid play against soft competition.

Plays on road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 87-33 (72.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The road team has won both meetings this season, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall. The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes. Bet the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Mavericks UNDER 196.5

Both the Dallas Mavericks and Indiana Pacers will be playing with a lot of intensity tonight. I believe that will favor the defense in this one as both teams put their best effort of the season into the defensive end of the floor.

Indiana is a pissed off team right now having lost a season-high three straight games. It has given up 112 and 109 points in its last two games, respectively, so it will be blaming the poor play on defense. As a result, it will get after it defensively. The Mavs have lost three of four while allowing 100-plus points in three of the losses, so their message will be defense heading into this one.

These teams played in the ultimate defensive battle the first time they got together this season. Dallas beat Indiana 81-73 on the road on February 12 for 154 combined points. While I do expect more points in this one, I don't foresee them sniffing 196 combined points. Each of the past four meetings have seen 186 or fewer combined points with the UNDER going 4-0.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Pacers last six vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four Sunday games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Mavericks last five home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Thunder/Lakers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 230.5

The value in this game between the Lakers and Thunder is clearly with the UNDER. While both teams can score, the fact of the matter is that this number has been set too high, and you would be foolish to back the over on totals this high with any consistency.

The reason for the inflation here is that both teams have played in ridiculously high-scoring games of late. The Lakers and their opponents have combined for 236-plus points in three straight, while the Thunder are coming off a 250-point effort against the Suns. Both teams have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to in terms of point-scoring.

These teams have played twice this season with combined scores of 210 and 219 points, which are high, but not nearly as high as this total set tonight. Those totals were set at 204.5 and 210.5, respectively. That just goes to show you really how much value is with the UNDER in this one based on the total sets alone.

The Lakers and Thunder have not combined for more than 226 points in any of their last 30 meetings. You have to go all the way back to 2008 to find the last time that they combined for more, which was when the Thunder were the Supersonics in a 105-130 loss to the Lakers. That makes for a perfect 30-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Heat/Bulls ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 188

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls Sunday. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle, which is usually the case when these teams get together.

That was certainly the case the last time these teams met up on February 23. Miami beat Chicago 93-79 at home for 172 combined points. I look for a similar final combined score in this one this afternoon as both teams get after it defensively.

Both teams have been playing at a snails' pace this season. Chicago ranks 29th in pace at 93.0 possessions per game, while Miami surprisingly ranks 23rd in pace at 94.4 possessions per game. Chicago also ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency, allowing just 97.9 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more are 24-4 (85.7%) since 1996. Chicago is 14-4 to the UNDER in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Cavaliers UNDER 199

The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers are each trying to stay alive for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Each has a long way to go, but they are both still fighting. That's why the intensity level will be high in this game, which favors a defensive battle.

Both teams will also be tired as this is the second of a back-to-back for each. I look for the jump shots to come up short tonight, and for both offenses to struggle. There's no question that fatigue favors defense as well as neither team will be looking to push the ball much in this one.

Cleveland traded for Luol Deng before the deadline. That is huge for the UNDER here considering he will be matched up against Carmelo Anthony. The key to stopping the Knicks' offense is stopping Anthony, and Deng has been one of the most underrated defenders in the league in his career.

The Cavaliers are 11-2 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. Cleveland is 12-3 to the UNDER in a home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. The UNDER is 13-3 in Cavaliers last 16 home games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Cleveland. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +7

The New York Knicks (22-40) are getting too much respect from the books tonight. The fact of the matter is that this team is all but done for, and even a 118-106 win at Minnesota last time out does not change that. The Knicks know it, and so do I.

New York had lost seven straight and 13 of 15 prior to that win over the Timberwolves. It had been beaten by double-digits in four straight games before the win, too. Basically, this line has been inflated due to that win, and it should not have been because it didn't matter.

Utah has lost four straight games coming in, all of which have come on the road. This has also created some extra line value here as the betting public wants nothing to do with the Jazz after this stretch of basketball. I like the young players on this Jazz team, and they are not going to pack it in this early in the season as guys are playing for jobs.

Plays against any team (NEW YORK) - off a road win by 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 32-16 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Utah is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after having lost four of its last five games this season. The Knicks are 12-20 SU & 11-21 ATS at home this season. Take the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the Portland Trail Blazers. They have lost three straight games coming in and need to put an end to this skid in a hurry.

Dallas (36-26) only leads Memphis (34-26) by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Losses at this point are very costly, especially three in a row. You can bet that the Mavericks will be putting their best foot forward tonight because of it.

The Mavericks have won three of their last four meetings with the Blazers. They are also 29-12 straight up in their last 41 home meetings with Portland. Rarely will you ever get Dallas as this small of a home favorite, and we'll take advantage tonight.

Portland is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games following a win by 10 points or more. Dallas is 10-1 ATS after trailing its previous game by 15 or more points at halftime over the last three seasons. The Mavericks are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games following a road loss. Dallas is 41-15 ATS in its last 56 games following an ATS loss, and 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with the Mavericks Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavaliers/Bobcats UNDER 196

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Charlotte Bobcats. Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch, so the intensity should be at a very high level defensively.

These teams have faced each other twice this season with defense shining through. The Bobcats won both meetings 90-84 at home for 174 combined points, and 86-80 on the road for 166 combined points. From those two results alone, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER in this one.

Both teams like to play at a slow pace. Cleveland ranks 20th in pace at 95.5 possessions per game, while Charlotte is right behind them in 21st at 95.2 possessions per contest. The Cavaliers rank 24th in offensive efficiency at 99.9 points per 100 possessions, while the Bobcats are 25th at 99.6 per 100 possessions.

The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Bobcats last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Cleveland is 28-13 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in two straight games since 1996. The Cavaliers are 60-32 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games since 1996. Because the Cavs are coming off back-to-back high-scoring games, this total has been inflated. We'll take advantage. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Clippers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5

The books have set the bar way too high tonight in this contest between the Clippers and Lakers. The value is clearly with the UNDER in this game, and I'll gladly take advantage as it would take a really high-scoring effort from both teams to top this massive total.

The Clippers are expected to be without two of their best shooters, but also two of their worst defenders. J.J. Redick may miss the rest of the season, while Jamal Crawford is doubtful with a calf injury. These losses will hamper their offensive production, so the Clippers will try and make up for it on the other end.

While recent meetings between these teams have been high scoring, they have not been THIS high scoring. The Clippers and Lakers have combined for 210, 219 and 204 points in their last three meetings, respectively. Dating back further, 24 of the last 25 meetings between these teams have seen 221 or fewer combined points.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 25-8 (75.8%) since 1996. The UNDER is 35-16 in Clippers last 51 Thursday games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Thunder/Suns NBA Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 218

Both the Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder have played in some ridiculously high-scoring games of late. As a result, oddsmakers have inflated this total as both teams have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to.

One look at recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Five of the past six meetings have seen 110 or fewer combined points. The past two meetings have been very low-scoring.

In their final meeting of 2012-13, the Thunder beat the Suns 97-69 on the road for 166 combined points. In their first and only meeting of 2013-14, the Thunder won 103-96 at home for 199 combined points. Oddsmakers set the total for that game at 198, and now it has been set roughly 20 points higher for the second meeting. That shows the line value here on this UNDER.

Oklahoma City is 10-1 to the UNDER after scoring 120 points or more over the past two seasons. The Thunder are 9-1 to the UNDER off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last two years. The UNDER is 21-5 in Suns last 26 Thursday games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Heat/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 209.5

The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This is a rematch from their epic 7-game NBA Finals series in which San Antonio had the title stolen away from them by Ray Allen and company.

Familiarity leads to low-scoring games. I believe the defensive intensity tonight will be very high in this rematch, especially as both teams are rounding into form as we enter the final 1/4 of the season.

One way to know that there is value with the UNDER tonight is the fact that the total has been set 4.5 points higher than in their first meeting (205) of the season. Also, eight of the past 10 meetings have seen 205 or fewer combined points.

Miami is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons. The average score in these teams has been 101.0 to 91.4, or a combined average of 192.4 points per game. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +7

The Orlando Magic are showing tremendous value as a 7-point home underdog to the Houston Rockets tonight. While they likely won't need the points, I'm going to take them for some added insurance in a game that should go right down to the wire.

Sure, Houston is the more talented team, but this is a very tough spot for the Rockets. Indeed, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back off arguably their biggest win of the season last night against the defending champion Miami Heat. It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown off that victory.

Orlando, meanwhile, comes in on two days' rest and ready to go. The Magic have been extremely tough at home over the past month. They have gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games overall with their only loss coming to Memphis by a final of 81-86. They have beaten the top two teams in each conference in Oklahoma City and Indiana during this stretch, too.

Another bonus is that leading scorer Arron Afflalo is expected to return after a five-game absence. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Orlando is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. Houston is 0-8 ATS in its last eight meetings with Orlando. Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -4.5

Off a 96-98 home loss to the Golden State Warriors last night, the league-best Indiana Pacers will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have only lost two games in a row one time this season, and it's not about to happen against a team they have dominated.

Indeed, the Pacers are 14-1 in their last 15 meetings with the Bobcats. They have won the last five by an average of 17.8 points per game. Indiana cruised to a 99-74 victory at Charlotte on November 27. Its last two trips to Charlotte have resulted in wins by a combined 52 points.

The Bobcats are in a bit of a letdown spot here as they return home from a grueling 3-game trip against San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Miami. They went 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in those three contests, losing each by double-digits. That just proved that this team still has a long ways to go before it can compete with the league's elite, such as Indiana.

"Mentally, we've got to be way tougher than we are because it's time, you know, it's just time," David West said. "It's just not something that you can just say a week before the playoffs, say, 'OK.' You've got to work your way into it. But as a group, it's time. We've got a tough three-game trip coming up and it's just time."

"We've been getting away with playing sub-.500 teams and winning ballgames like these," Paul George said. "We just can't play with fire on nights like these."

I believe in the leadership of this team with West and George at the forefront. When they say they are going to do something, they usually go out and do it. That's why I look for this team to rally around these two and to come up with one of their most dominant performances of the season tonight in Charlotte.

The Pacers are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. loss. The Bobcats are 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Thunder UNDER 219

The books have set the bar too high with this total tonight between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Philadelphia 76ers. I fully expect an Oklahoma City blowout, which will lead to the starters getting pulled early. The Thunder do not have a deep bench scoring-wise as their bench is mostly filled with players known more for their defense.

These teams met once this season with the Thunder winning 103-91 on January 25 with a total set of 208 points. Now, the books have set the number 11 points higher than the previous meeting despite their 194-point effort. As you can see, there's clearly value with the under here based on the 11-point difference alone.

Philadelphia was a high-scoring machine through the first half of the season, which created a lot of expectations. However, it has traded away two of its best players in Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner, and now points have been much harder to come by. The 76ers have been held to 100 or fewer points in six of their last nine games overall, including an 81-92 loss at Orlando last time out.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 29-9 (76.3%) over the last five seasons.

Philadelphia is 9-1 to the UNDER in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. Oklahoma City is 28-11 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in 76ers last 13 road games, and 6-0-2 in 76ers last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves (29-29) are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They currently sit 5.5 games behind both the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks for the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference. As a result, you can expect them to lay it all on the line from here on out.

The Timberwolves have responded well to the pressure of these must-win games since the All-Star Break. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes a home win over Indiana (104-91) and a road victory at Phoenix (110-101). In fact, all five of their wins came by 9 points or more. This team is much better than its record would indicate as it simply fell victim to a plethora of close losses in the first half of the season.

Denver (25-33) has clearly quit on its season. It has gone 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall, which included a 90-117 road loss at Minnesota on February 12. Not helping matters is the fact that the Nuggets are without their best player in Ty Lawson (18.0 ppg, 8.8 apg). They are also without Danilo Gallinari, JaVale McGee and Nate Robinson. Also, Kenneth Faried (11.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg) is questionable tonight with a knee injury.

The Timberwolves are an incredible 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Denver is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall, including 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. The Nuggets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Minnesota is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 meetings in Denver. The road team is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Pacers UNDER 189.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers tonight. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I expect to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league. It is giving up 91.2 points per game overall, and 86.6 points per game at home. The Pacers rank 1st in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.3 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz rank just 23rd in offensive efficiency, scoring 100.4 points per 100 possessions. Utah also ranks 27th in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.

These teams met once already this season with the Pacers winning 95-86 in Utah for 181 combined points. The books set the total at 185.5 points for that contest, and now they have set it at 189.5 for the rematch. That alone tells you there is some value here with the UNDER.

Utah is 7-0 to the UNDER against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. Indiana is 8-0 to the UNDER In a home game where the total is between 185 and 189.5 this season. The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last seven road games. These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves (28-29) are essentially in a must-win situation for the remainder of the season. That's good news when you decide to back them considering they will be giving it their all on a nightly basis.

I really like the Timberwolves here as a short road favorite here against the Sacramento Kings. They are 5.5 games back of the Suns for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Kings (20-38) currently hold the second-worst record in the West.

Minnesota is surging, having won four of its last five games overall while going 4-1 ATS in the process. That includes a 104-91 home win over Eastern Conference-leading Indiana, as well as a 110-101 road win at Phoenix last time out. That game against the Suns was on February 25, meaning that the T'Wolves will have had three days' rest heading into this one.

Sacramento, meanwhile, is coming off a 122-126 loss at the Los Angeles Lakers last night. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back. The Kings have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall, and they're starting to show signs of already packing it in given that they have little to play for the rest of the way.

Minnesota is 12-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent this season. The Timberwolves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Kings are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +14

The Miami Heat are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers right now for how well they have been playing of late. They have won six straight games while going 5-0-1 ATS in the process.

Now, the Heat are clearly overvalued as a 14-point favorite over the Orlando Magic tonight. They have a tendency to play down to the level of their competition, and I believe that is precisely what is going to happen tonight.

Orlando has clearly not given up on its season. It is 5-5 in its last 10 games overall, which is impressive considering it has beaten Oklahoma City and Indiana during this stretch, which are currently the top teams in their respective conferences.

The Magic have a knack for playing the Heat tough on the road for whatever reason. They have not lost by more than 12 points in any of their last six visits to South Beach. In fact, they only lost 99-101 as a 13-point dog in their first trip to Miami this season back on November 23.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls/Mavericks UNDER 192.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Chicago Bulls and Dallas Mavericks tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Chicago is one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season, averaging just 92.9 points per game overall and 91.9 on the road. However, it makes up for it with a defense that surrenders just 92.3 points per game. The Bulls rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 97.7 points per 100 possessions. They rank 28th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.

When the Bulls and Mavericks get together, Chicago's slow-it-down, half-court style usually reigns supreme. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings, and they have combined for 188 or fewer points in five of the six. Dallas and Chicago have averaged a combined 178.2 points per game over their last six meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-1 in Mavericks last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 12-4 to the UNDER off a home win this season. The Bulls are 27-13 to the UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Griizzlies/Thunder Western Conference No-Brainer on UNDER 193.5

I look for a defensive battle between these two Western Conference rivals who seem to meet in the playoffs every year. As a result, they are very familiar with one another, and familiarity leads to low-scoring games.

That has certainly been the case in the past two meetings between these teams. Indeed, they combined for 163 points in an 86-77 home victory for the Thunder on February 3, and 177 points in a 90-87 home victory for the Grizzlies on January 14. Seven of the past nine meetings have seen 192 or less combined points.

Oklahoma City has to blame its defense for a 3-game losing streak coming into this one, allowing 103-plus points in all three losses. I look for it to buckle down on that side of the ball tonight. Memphis is only scoring 92.9 points per game on the road this year, but allowing a super 91.5 points per game away from home. The Thunder rank 4th in the league defensive efficiency, while the Grizzlies rank 8th.

Memphis is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game in the second half of the season this season. The UNDER is 7-0 in Grizzlies last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These two trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NBA Thursday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Wizards/Raptors UNDER 197

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and side with the UNDER in what I predict will be a very low-scoring affair.

Familiarity favors defense, and these teams are clearly very familiar with one another. This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these division rivals. They just played on February 18 nine days ago in a 103-93 road victory for the Raptors. They combined for only 196 points despite Toronto shooting 57% from the field, and Washington shooting 47%.

It's very unlikely that both teams shoot that well again. In fact, that 196 combined points was the most between these teams in their last four meetings. They have combined for 196, 189, 184 and 166 points in their last four meetings, respectively, with the UNDER going 4-0. That's an average of 183.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

Washington is 75-42 to the UNDER in its last 117 road games with a total set between 195 and 199.5 points. The Wizards are 11-2 to the UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Wizards last seven Thursday games, while the UNDER is 20-6 in Raptors last 26 Thursday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder (43-14) are trying to capture the No. 1 seed in the West. Two straight losses to Miami and the Los Angeles Clippers since the All-Star Break certainly have not helped their cause, and I fully expect them to come back highly motivated for a victory tonight because of it.

I faded the Thunder with success in both of those losses to the Heat and Clippers. Part of my reasoning was that Russell Westbrook had just returned from injury since the All-Star Break, and that they would be out of sync with him back in the lineup. Now, with two games and nearly a week of practice with Westbrook under their belts, they should be in sync tonight.

Helping matters will be the fact that they'll get to play one of the worst teams in the league in the Cleveland Cavaliers. While the Thunder come in on two days' rest, the Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the league today. Cleveland is also deflated right now after having lost three straight coming in, which really puts a damper on its chances of making the playoffs. The Cavs are also short-handed right now, playing without three key players in Anderson Varejao, Dion Waiters and C.J. Miles.

Mark Brooks is 51-25 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last four against the spread as the coach of Oklahoma City. Brooks is 54-26 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Oklahoma City. As you can see, this team tends to respond in a big way off a poor performance, and a string of performances where they didn't meet expectations. The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. loss. The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -10.5

The Memphis Grizzlies (31-24) currently sit in 9th place in the Western Conference, trailing the Phoenix Suns by 1.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot. As a result, they won't be overlooking anyone the rest of the way as they try and play catch up.

They certainly won't be overlooking the Lakers, who beat them 96-92 back on December 17 as a 2.5-point underdog. However, these are two completely different teams since that meeting. The Grizzlies are finally healthy, while the Lakers are simply playing out the string and playing different lineups to see what they have heading into next year.

Memphis had won four straight prior to an 89-92 loss at Charlotte on Sunday. They have had two days off since that game to rest, working on their mistakes, and prepare for the Lakers. Meanwhile, the Lakers will be playing a second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after getting destroyed 98-118 at Indiana last night. I expect a similar beat down at the hands of the Grizz tonight.

The Grizzlies are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference opponents. Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall, which includes three losses by 17-plus points. Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Cavaliers UNDER 194

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between these two Eastern Conference playoff contenders Tuesday.

One of my biggest reasons for backing the UNDER is familiarity. These teams literally just played a few days ago on February 21 as Toronto won 98-81 at home for 189 combined points. Just four days later, these teams square off again and are obviously very familiar with one another. Familiarity favors defense more than offense. Plus, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in this series.

It's also worth noting that both teams love to play at a slow pace. Toronto ranks 22nd in the league in pace, averaging just 94.6 possessions per game. Cleveland ranks 20th in pace, averaging 95.6 possessions per contest. One of the biggest reasons for Toronto's improvement this season has been its defense. It ranks 7th in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding only 100.9 points per 100 possessions.

The Raptors are 20-5-1 to the UNDER in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 21-7 to the UNDER in a home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cavaliers last five games overall, 12-2 in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, and 11-2 in their last 13 home games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Clippers -3

I backed the Los Angeles Clippers +5 in an outright victory at Oklahoma City Sunday. I'll back them again tonight as a mere 3-point road favorite over the New Orleans Pelicans. While some might consider this a letdown spot, I look at it much differently.

The biggest reason I was on the Clippers yesterday is because they had lost two straight coming in and hadn't lost three in a row all season. If they were on an extended winning streak and had just beaten the Thunder, then this would have been a letdown spot. But, considering they've still lost two of their last three, the Clippers will have no problem giving the Pelicans their full attention.

I give the Pelicans a lot of credit for the way they have battled despite devastating injuries to two of their best players in Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg). Both of these players remain out, and the Pelicans have faltered to just a 23-32 record to this point because of it.

The Clippers have won four straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Pelicans, including a 108-95 home victory in their lone meeting this season. Five of those six victories have come by 9 points or more, so the Pelicans have rarely been competitive with the Clippers since Chris Paul joined them. Bet Los Angeles Monday.

15* Clippers/Thunder ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +5

The Los Angeles Clippers are going to be highly motivated for a victory this afternoon. There's no question they will be putting their best foot forward, which is why they are showing such great value as an underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder here.

The Clippers have lost back-to-back games to the Spurs and Grizzlies out of the All-Star Break. Only four times all season have they lost two in a row, and not once have they lost three straight. So, this just goes to show how resilient this team is, and how good Doc Rivers is at getting his players to respond.

Oklahoma City is coming off a deflating 81-103 home loss to Miami last time out. It's always tough to come back and play the next game after playing the defending world champs. I look for the Thunder to suffer a hangover effect, and for them to continue to struggle with trying to get Russell Westbrook involved in the offense as he just returned from injury for the Heat game.

The Clippers are 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Los Angeles is 11-3 ATS off a road loss this year. The Clippers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss overall. Los Angeles is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the Clippers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Bucks UNDER 190

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and the Milwaukee Bucks. We have the best defensive team in the league up against one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. The result will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

The Pacers rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 93.9 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks rank 29th in offensive efficiency, putting up a mere 96.7 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks also like to play at a slow tempo, ranking 25th in the league in pace at 94.2 possessions per game.

Taking a look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The Pacers and Bucks have combined for 181 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, averaging a combined 178.7 points per game in those three contests. That's roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana is 18-4 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Note: this total is 189.5 or less in most places. The UNDER is 7-1 in Pacers last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Bucks last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies represent my favorite play in an East vs. West matchup for the entire month of February. I'll gladly back them as a small road favorite over the Charlotte Bobcats Saturday night.

Memphis (31-23) trails Dallas by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. That means that the Grizzlies cannot afford to overlook anyone from here on out if they want to make the postseason.

Charlotte (26-30) is getting a lot of love from the books and the betting public because of its improvement this season. However, this team is not even on the same playing field as Memphis, which is a much better basketball team, and that will show in the final score tonight.

My biggest reason for fading the Bobcats is the fact that this will be the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. This is one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially for the short-handed Bobcats, who just recently traded away Ramon Sessions and Jeff Adrien.

The Grizzlies are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Bobcats, including a 94-75 victory in their most recent meeting. Memphis is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Charlotte is 2-17 ATS when playing its 4th game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Jazz/Blazers OVER 202

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers. I'll take the free money and back the OVER tonight as both teams likely top the 100-point mark in this one.

Portland is one of the best offensive teams in the league this season. It is averaging 107.9 points per game while also ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency. However, the Blazers are giving up 103.9 points per game while ranking 23rd in defensive efficiency.

The Jazz haven't been the best offensive team this season, but should get going tonight against this poor Blazers' defense. The Jazz are giving up 100.3 points per game this season, including 101.0 points per game on the road on 47.5% shooting.

Each of the last five meetings in this series have seen 199 or more points. The last time these teams met in Portland on December 6, they combined for 228 points. Playing at home, the Blazers will control the tempo, and they like to get up and down.

The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Portland. The OVER is 30-14-1 in Blazers last 45 home games. The OVER is 17-8-1 in Blazers last 26 vs. Western Conference. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Cleveland Cavaliers +9

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Asking the Toronto Raptors to beat them by double-digits tonight to beat us is simply asking too much. I'll side with the road underdog showing tremendous value because of it.

Cleveland is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. That includes road wins over Washington, Detroit and Philadelphia, as well as a home win against Memphis during this stretch. This team is hungry to make the playoffs as it trails the Bobcats by just 3 games for the 8th and final spot in the East.

Toronto has been an underrated team for most of the season. However, it is clearly being overvalued here as such a massive home favorite. Four of the last six meetings between these teams were decided by 8 points or less, and the Cavaliers have only been beaten by more than 8 points in one of their last six meetings with the Raptors.

The underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Toronto. Roll with Cleveland Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -3

The New York Knicks (21-33) have to make a run now if they want to make the NBA playoffs. They trail the Charlotte Bobcats by 3.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They certainly cannot afford to lose to the Magic tonight.

After a hard-fought 93-98 loss at Memphis in their first game back from the break, the Knicks went into New Orleans and came away with a gutty 98-91 victory. I look for them to go into hapless Orlando (16-40) and to win going away tonight.

This has been a one-sided series of late to say the least. Indeed, the Knicks are a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Magic. They have won all eight meetings by 5 points or more, including six of them by double-digits.

The Knicks are 27-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Magic are 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or less turnovers. Take the Knicks Friday.

15* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 212

The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors will play part in an absolute shootout tonight on TNT. Both teams love to get up and down as much as anyone in the league, and they score right up there with the best of them, too.

Golden State ranks 5th in the NBA in pace, averaging 98.8 possessions per game. Houston is right behind in 6th, averaging 98.2 possessions per game. The Rockets rank 4th in offensive efficiency at 108.0 points per 100 possessions, while the Warriors are 12th at 104.2 points per 100 possessions.

A big reason I'm backing the OVER tonight is that both teams are fresh coming off the All-Star Break and will be ready to get up and down the court. Also, Andrew Bogut is expected to miss tonight's game for Golden State, so Dwight Howard should dominate inside for Houston. Both teams are going to have to play small ball to match up.

The OVER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Golden State. In their last meeting here on December 13, these teams combined for 228 points in a 116-112 road victory for the Rockets. The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last six Thursday games. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons +3

This is a classic home-and-home situation. These teams played last night in Detroit with the Bobcats coming away with a 108-96 road victory. Playing one night later, I'll back the Pistons because they lost the first meeting.

In these home-and-home spots, the team that lost the first game almost always comes back the more motivated team in the second meeting. It's pretty obvious as to why as they want revenge, while the winning team has a tendency to become complacent in the second meeting.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing when these teams have gotten together recently. The road team has won six of the past seven meetings. Detroit has been at its best on the road this year, posting a very respectable 10-14 record SU away from home.

The Pistons are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Charlotte. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Charlotte is 15-39 ATS in its last 54 games when playing on 0 days rest. Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3

I fully expect the Chicago Bulls to come out of the All-Star Break as hot as they went into it. They had won three straight and four of five while going 4-1 ATS in their last five games heading into the break.

Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back off a big win at Washington last night. That will give the Bulls a big edge in preparation as they have had a full two days to get ready for the Raptors, while Toronto wouldn't have prepared for Chicago at all heading into this one.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing to these teams this season. In fact, the road team is a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings between the Bulls and Raptors during the 2013-14 season. After losing the last two to the Raptors this season, the Bulls will want revenge tonight to even the season series at 2-2. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1996. Chicago is 41-22 ATS in its last 63 road games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 points. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take Chicago Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 192

The Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight in their first game back from the All-Star Break. I look for both offenses to show some rust after the layoff, and for the defenses to reign supreme in large part because of it.

However, my biggest reason for backing the UNDER is the familiarity between these teams. This will be their 11th meeting since February of 2013 about a year ago. That's due to the fact that they squared off in the playoffs last year. Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 189 or fewer combined points, and an average of 175.3 combined points/game during this span, which is nearly 17 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana, which is 25-3 at home this season, doesn't give up anything at home. It is allowing only 85.5 points per game on 39.1% shooting at home this year. The Pacers are far and away the best team in the league defensively. They rank 1st in defensive efficiency, yielding 93.6 points per 100 possessions, which is 4.2 points less than second-place Chicago.

The UNDER is 12-2 in Pacers last 14 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 4-1 in Hawks last five overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Atlanta is 70-46 to the UNDER off two straight losses by 10 points or more since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -3

The Wizards went 1-4 in their last five games before the All-Star Break, which has them undervalued coming out of the break. A closer look shows that they played well despite a brutal schedule. All four of their losses came by 7 points or less, including a 118-125 overtime loss to San Antonio, and road losses to Memphis (89-92) and Houston (112-113) by a combined four points.

Now, at 25-27 on the season, the Wizards head into the second half playing with a sense of urgency. They also have some good vibes considering two of their players shined over All-Star weekend. John Wall won the dunk contest, while Bradley Beal made it to the final round of the three-point contest. These two players have really stepped up their games this year to get Washington back into playoff contention.

I just believe the Wizards will be the more motivated team for a number of reasons, including their tough finish prior to the break. They trail tonight's opponent, the Toronto Raptors (28-24), in the Eastern Conference standings. Plus, they have lost each of their first two meetings with the Raptors this season, so they will be out for revenge.

Washington is 13-2 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season. The Wizards are 24-7 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. Washington is 14-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take Washington Tuesday.

15* Nets/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 185

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between the Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls tonight. This is their final game before the All-Star Break, so I full expect both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively. They are also becoming rivals, which will add to the defensive intensity.

The Bulls and Nets met in the playoffs last season as Chicago won in seven games by going on the road in Game 7 and coming away with a victory. They also won the first meeting this season by a final of 95-78 on the road. Obviously, these teams are very familiar with each other, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

Playing low-scoring games is nothing new to Chicago. It is combining with its opponents for an average of 185.0 points per game on the season, including 183.6 points per game at home. The Bulls rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

The Bulls rank 28th in the NBA in pace, averaging 93.1 possessions per game. Brooklyn also likes to slow it down, ranking 26th n pace at 94.0 possessions per game. That means this contest is likely to be played at a snail's pace, which will certainly favor the UNDER.

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Bulls last nine games overall. They have combined with their last nine opponents for 185, 178, 189, 193, 169, 167, 182, 181, and 176 points, respectively. As you can see, they have combined for 185 or less in seven of them, and the only two opponents that went over that number were the Warriors and Suns, who each like to play at a fast pace.

Chicago is 23-8 to the UNDER when playing a team with a losing record this season. The Bulls are 21-7 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this year. The UNDER is 13-4 in Bulls last 17 home games. The UNDER is 26-10-1 in Bulls last 37 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9

The Washington Wizards (25-26) will be highly motivated to get back to .500 in time for the All-Star Break. The only way to do that is to go into Houston and beat the Rockets tonight. I like their chances of keeping this one close and potentially pulling off the upset in the end.

Washington simply does not get blown out. Each of its last eight losses have been by 7 points or fewer. You have to go all the way back to January 10 at Indiana to find the last time that the Wizards were blown out. One of those 7-point losses was a 107-114 setback at home to the Rockets, which places the Wizards in revenge mode heading into their second and final meeting of the season.

Houston is simply overvalued right now due to having won six straight games heading into this contest. Considering the closely-contested nature of this series, there's no question that Houston is laying too many points. Nine of the last 10 meetings between the Rockets and Wizards have been decided by 8 points or fewer. The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

Washington is 12-3 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 99-plus points per game this season. The Wizards are 55-35 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. Washington is 12-2 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the last two years. The Wizards are 23-7 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -5.5

The New York Knicks (20-31) have a terrible record, but the fact of the matter is that they are just 2.5 games behind the Charlotte Bobcats for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They want to go into the All-Star Break the right way with an emphatic win over Sacramento tonight.

The Knicks are playing much better of late having won five of their last nine games overall. The same cannot be said for Sacramento, which has lost 10 of its last 12 overall, including three straight by 9-plus points. The Kings have lost seven in a row as the visitor, and they seemed to already be looking forward to the All-Star break after Tuesday's 109-99 defeat in Cleveland.

"The effort wasn't there," said center DeMarcus Cousins, who had 21 points and 10 rebounds. "It was just bad overall. I don't really have an answer, but whatever it is, it needs to be fixed. After the All-Star break, we'll start fresh, which is what we need right now."

The Knicks have won their last two home meetings with the Kings in blowout fashion by finals of 120-81 and 100-85. New York is 25-11 ATS when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% over the last two seasons. The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -1

The Memphis Grizzlies are showing tremendous value as only a 1-point favorite over the Orlando Magic Wednesday. This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers as we head into the All-Star Break.

Memphis (28-23) sits in 9th place in the Western Conference, two games behind the Dallas Mavericks for the 8th and final playoff spot. That means it will be lacking no motivation in this game as it wants to go into the All-Star Break on a positive note off last night's 92-89 win over Washington.

Orlando (16-37) is WAY overvalued right now due to winning three straight games coming into this one. The last two of those victories came against Oklahoma City and Indiana by a single point each. Clearly, the Thunder and Pacers were overlooking the Magic. Memphis won't be doing the same tonight given the situation. Orlando is in a letdown spot off those two huge wins as well.

Memphis has owned Orlando, winning five straight meetings in this series. That includes a 108-82 road victory in its last visit to Orlando. The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Memphis is 24-11-1 ATS in its last 36 games when its starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Magic are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents. Take the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to lack the respect they deserve tonight as only a 1-point home favorite over the Oklahoma City Thunder. At 36-15 on the season, they trail the Thunder by just 4 games for the top spot in the Western Conference.

That makes this a very important game for them heading into the All-Star Break. They have taken two of the first three meetings with the Thunder this season, so another win tonight would give them the tiebreaker if it came down to it. You can bet the Blazers will be up for this game because of it.

Portland has one of the best home-court advantages in the league. It is 19-5 at home this season, and these are some of the best fans the league has to offer when the Blazers are actually a good team. Oklahoma City has lost its last two road games to Washington (81-96) and Orlando (102-103) to cool off after going on a big tear, which is the reason it is overvalued here.

The Blazers are 12-4 ATS when revenging a loss in which opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Portland is 15-6 ATS after covering three of its last four against the spread this season. The favorite is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series. Roll with the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers PK

Despite being just 18-33 on the season, the Cleveland Cavaliers are only four games out of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Because of this fact, they are pushing hard here right before the All-Star Break to try and close the gap.

The Cavaliers have won back-to-back games over playoff contenders in Washington and Memphis heading into this contest. What really lit a spark under this team was a poor performance against the Lakers when they only had four players left due to fouls and injuries, as well as the firing of general manager Chris Grant.

"I think it woke up a lot of people," said Dion Waiters, who combined for 42 points in the last two games after totaling six points in his previous two contests. "Me, I felt half of that was my fault, how we played. We just didn't come out right as a unit. I think it cost the man his job. If we had been playing the way we have the last two games he'd probably still be here. We can't dwell on the past, we've got to continue to play the way we've been playing and keep it up."

The Cavaliers will also be motivated to avenge their worst loss of the season, an 80-124 loss at Sacramento on January 12. I like their chances considering the Kings have lost nine of 11 overall and six straight on the road coming into this contest. This is a team that has nothing to play for but pride, and is just looking forward to getting to the All-Star Break.

Sacramento is 13-26 ATS off two straight games with 19 or less assists over the last three seasons. The Kings are 23-47 ATS when playing eight or more games in 14 days over the last three years. Mike Brown is 90-60 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games in all games he has coached. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Pacers UNDER 199.5

The Indiana Pacers are going to be highly motivated for a victory after getting outscored 29-18 in the fourth quarter to lose to the Orlando Magic by a final of 93-92 Sunday. I look for their motivation to show on the defensive end as they look to shut down Denver's high-powered offense.

Adding to the motivation for the Pacers is the fact that they lost the first meeting of the season with Denver on the road by a final of 109-96. They have only allowed 100-plus points 11 times this season, including three times at home.

The Pacers are the best defensive team in the league, ranking 1st in defensive efficiency at 94.0 points per 100 possessions. They give up a mere 85.8 points per game on 39.6% shooting at home. The Pacers' job will be much easier tonight with leading scorer Ty Lawson (18.0 ppg, 8.8 apg) listed as doubtful with a rib injury. The Nuggets are lost offensively without him.

Indiana is 11-3 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Pacers are 28-14 to the UNDER as a favorite this year. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Pacers last eight vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 5-1 in Pacers last six when playing on 0 days' rest. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Raptors UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New Orleans Pelicans and Toronto Raptors. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle tonight.

Both of these teams prefer to slow it down and play in the half court. In fact, Toronto and New Orleans are tied for 22nd in the league in pace at 94.7 possessions per game. Toronto ranks 7th in defensive efficiency, giving up only 101.1 points per 100 possessions.

The Pelicans have been forced to play at an even slow pace since losing two of their best players to injury. Starting point guard Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg) remain out. Tyreke Evans (12.4 ppg) is questionable to play tonight as well.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent years, and I look for it to remain that way in 2013-14. Toronto and New Orleans have combined for 191 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings. The only one that went over that mark went to overtime in a game that was tied 91-91 at the end of regulation. So, not counting overtime, the last six meetings since 2009 have seen 191 or fewer points at the end of regulation.

Toronto is 23-6 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. New Orleans is 22-6 to the UNDER after trailing its previous game by 20-plus points at the half since 1996. The Pelicans are 16-7 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Cavaliers UNDER 186

I'm going to back the UNDER in this contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The books have certainly set the bar too high, and I'll take advantage.

Memphis is 11-2 to the UNDER in its last 13 games overall. It has failed to score 100 points in any of those 13 games, but it has allowed 95 points or fewer in 12 of them. This team has always lacked an offense, but it is one of the best defensive clubs in the league.

One reason Memphis' offense is lacking is that it is without leading scorer and floor genera, Mike Conley (18.0 ppg, 6.3 ap). It does not have a true point guard to run the offense without Conley, so easy buckets are tough to come by. The offense has to be exclusively ran through Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph down low.

Both teams play at slow paces. Memphis ranks last in the league in pace at 92.1 possessions per game. Cleveland ranks in a tie for 18th in pace at 95.8 possessions per game. I look for this game to be played at a snail's pace because of it.

Memphis is 13-2 to the UNDER after allowing 80 points or less over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 7-0 in Grizzlies last seven road games. The UNDER is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 games following a win. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cavaliers last nine home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four games following a win. These five trends combine for a 41-4 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Magic UNDER 190

The Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic will take part in a defensive battle Sunday. This will be their third meeting of the season, and familiarity breeds defense. The more familiar you are with your opponent, the tougher it is to score.

This has been a very low-scoring series of late. The last three meetings have seen 184 or less combined points with combined finals of 177, 184 and 168 points. That's an average combined point total of 176.3 points per game, which is nearly 14 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league, yielding just 90.7 points per game. It ranks 1st in defensive efficiency by a landslide, yielding only 94.0 points per 100 possessions. The Pacers rank just 18th in pace at 95.8 possessions per game, which is one of the keys to their success defensively as they prefer to slow it down.

The Pacers are a super 18-4 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Indiana is 27-14 to the UNDER as a favorite this year. Orlando is 51-28 to the UNDER in its last 79 games after giving up five or less offensive rebounds. The UNDER is 8-1 in Pacers last 9 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 18-8-1 in Magic last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +9.5

The Utah Jazz are showing tremendous value as a 9.5-point home underdog tonight to the Miami Heat. Asking the Heat to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

Utah is undervalued right now due to its four straight losses coming in, including three in a row via blowout against playoff contenders in the Clippers, Raptors and Mavericks. These recent results have forced oddsmakers to inflate this line knowing that the betting public will be all over Miami.

The Heat have a way of playing to the level of their competition. They get up for the games against playoff contenders, but they have a hard time getting motivated to face teams out of the playoff race. It's understandable considering they have won back-to-back championships, so they pick and choose when they want to show up.

Utah has played Miami very tough at home in recent years. In fact, the Jazz have won three of their past four home meetings in this series, including back-to-back outright wins as an underdog with a 104-97 triumph in 2012-13, and a 99-98 victory in 2011-12. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Miami is 6-14 ATS after scoring 105 or more points this season. Utah 15-3 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five games against the spread over the last three seasons. The Heat are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win. Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly been playing some of the best basketball in the league over the last couple of weeks to keep themselves alive in the playoff hunt. They have done so without two of their best players in Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday.

Indeed, the Pelicans have won five of their last seven games overall with their lone losses coming at Minnesota and at home against San Antonio. They have beaten playoff contenders like Chicago and Atlanta during this stretch. They are clearly undervalued, which has shown with their 9-4 ATS mark in their last 13 games overall.

New Orleans is playing with double-revenging having lost both meetings with Minnesota this season, though both of those came on the road. The Timberwolves are 10-16 on the road this season. They will be without Nikola Pekovic (18.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg) tonight, and they could be without Kevin Love (25.6 ppg, 13.2 rpg), who is questionable with a neck injury.

The Timberwolves are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win. The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +1.5

The New York Knicks are in need of a victory tonight after losing three straight to drop to 19-30 on the season. Fortunately, they play in the Eastern Conference so they are not too far out of the playoff hunt. I look for them to come together tonight and get back on track with a win over Denver, and so does their star.

"We gotta stick together as a team. No one person is going to do it," star forward Carmelo Anthony said. "Everybody has gotta play their part in us turning this thing around. Our main focus is to win as many games as we can right now to prepare ourselves to make a push for the postseason."

The Nuggets come in overvalued due to winning four of their last six games overall. Five of those six games came at home, and now they start a 4-game road trip. The Nuggets are just 10-12 on the road this season.

The Knicks will be out for revenge from a 95-97 road loss to Denver in their first meeting this season. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won eight of the last nine meetings.

Denver is 1-9 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Nuggets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 Friday games. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 25-2 system backing New York. Take the Knicks Friday.

25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +9

The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight as a nice-sized road underdog. Asking the Washington Wizards to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

The reason the Cavaliers are showing such great value tonight is the fact that they have lost six straight while failing to cover six in a row in the process. Obviously, the betting public realizes that they have been struggling, which has forced oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

Cleveland is going to play motivated basketball tonight to end this losing streak. The main reason it will be focused is because it has been the laughing stock of the media due to losing to the Los Angeles Lakers last time out, who were down to four players. The Lakers had to be charged a technical to allow Robert Sacre to return to the floor after picking up his sixth foul.

Washington just played a brutal stretch in which is faced five of the top teams in the West in Golden State, LA Clippers, OKC, Portland and San Antonio. It managed to go 3-2 against those five teams, which is impressive. However, it is coming off a double-overtime loss to San Antonio, and I look for it to suffer a hangover effect. There's no way the Wizards will be able to get up emotionally to face the Cavs after taking on the toughest part of their schedule.

This has been a very closely-contested series of late with each of the last four meetings decided by 7 points or less. Cleveland has gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington, so this is clearly a team that it matches up well against. Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won five of the past seven meetings outright.

Cleveland is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Washington is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Washington. Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Bulls/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +8.5

Once again, the Chicago Bulls are being undervalued by oddsmakers. This is nothing new for this team over the past two seasons under my favorite head coach in the league, Tom Thibodeau. The guy just keeps winning no matter the circumstances.

Despite arguably their two best players in Derrick Rose to a season-ending injury, and Luol Deng via trade, the Bulls have managed to go 12-6 in their last 18 games overall. At 24-24 on the season, they certainly have a chance to earn the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference if they keep up this play.

Golden State has really been struggling of late, going 4-6 in its last 10 games overall. That includes a 2-5 record at home during this stretch with losses to the likes of Denver, Indiana, Minnesota, Washington and Charlotte. It has shot 38% or less from the floor in three of its last four games overall.

Things won't get any easier for the Warriors offensively tonight as they'll be up against Chicago's stingy defense. The Bulls rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 98.0 points per 100 possessions.

Golden State certainly struggled to find the bottom of the net against Chicago last year. The Bulls swept the season series in blowout fashion, winning 103-87 at home and 113-95 on the road. They held the Warriors to an average of just 91 points per game in the two wins, and averaged 108 points per game themselves despite playing without Rose.

The Warriors are 1-8 ATS against dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game this season. The Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Bulls Thursday.

20* Blazers/Knicks ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Portland -2

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing tremendous value as a minimal road favorite over the New York Knicks tonight. Portland (34-14) is having a tremendous season and is one of the most improved teams in the league. New York (19-29) is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA.

Having lost five of their last eight games overall, the Blazers will come out hungry tonight. Each of their last 10 games have come against playoff contenders, so they have played a brutal stretch of games. They finally get a break here against the lowly Knicks.

New York is 10 games below .500, and the fact of the matter is that it simply does not have the talent to compete this season. Carmelo Anthony is being asked to do too much. The Knicks have lost seven of their last 11 games overall with their only wins coming at home against the Bobcats, Lakers, Celtics and Cavs. They even lost to the league-worst Milwaukee Bucks last time out.

Portland is 8-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Knicks are 1-8 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Blazers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2.5

When two of the worst teams in the league in the Boston Celtics (16-33) and Philadelphia 76ers (15-34) get together, you need to look for any kind of motivational factors you can find. I believe the Celtics will be the more motivated team in this one.

The reason is very simple. These teams just played a week ago with the 76ers winning 95-94 in Boston. You can bet that the Celtics will be motivated to avenge that defeat, while the 76ers won't show up with the same focus that they normally would having beaten this team recently.

Home-court advantage has meant little in this series of late as the road team has won three of the last five meetings outright. The 76ers are just 7-17 ATS in all lined home games this season.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 90-47 (65.7%) ATS since 1996. Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 76% of more of their attempts this season. Take the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Chicago Bulls +8

The Chicago Bulls get the nod Tuesday as a nice-sized road underdog to the Phoenix Suns. I have been backing the Suns as much as anyone this year, but they are finally overvalued here, while the Bulls are showing some of their best value of the season.

Chicago is a very resilient team. That is evident by the fact that it has not lost three in a row since losing four straight from December 14-19. Off back-to-back losses, including an ugly 99-70 loss at Sacramento last night in which they shot 28.2 percent from the field, I have no doubt the Bulls will come out determined tonight.

Chicago has won eight of its last 10 meetings with Phoenix. In fact, it has won each of its last four visits to Phoenix. This has clearly been a one-sided series over time, and while the Suns are improved this year, they won't be ready for the effort they are going to get from this motivated squad tonight.

Plays on any team (CHICAGO) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on 0 days rest. Take the Bulls Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 198.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Atlanta Hawks. These are two big rivals who played each other in the playoffs last year, so they are also familiar with one another. Familiarity favors defense every time.

When looking at the last five meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The Hawks and Pacers have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings, averaging a combined 175.8 points per game during this span. That's roughly 23 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league. It is giving up just 90.3 points per game on 41.3% shooting on the season. The Pacers rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding only 93.9 points per 100 possessions, which is by far the best mark in the NBA.

The Pacers are 16-4 to the UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 10-2 in Pacers last 12 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Sacramento Kings are expected to be without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins (22.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg) due to injury once again tonight. His value to this team is really starting to show considering the Kings are 0-7 in their last seven games without him.

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most resilient teams in the league. They have managed to go 11-5 in their last 16 games overall despite a season-ending injury to Derrick Rose, and the trading of Luol Deng. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is showing that he may be the best in the league.

Another example of the Bulls' resiliency is their ability to bounce back from a loss. In fact, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 straight up in their last seven games following a defeat, and have been tremendous under Thibodeau in this situation in his time here.

Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games. The Bulls are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Kings are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series. Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Sacramento. Roll with the Bulls Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Nuggets UNDER 216

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets. I believe a big reason for that is the return of point guard Ty Lawson for Denver from a shoulder injury, but now the number has been inflated as a result.

Denver is still in a world of hurt in the injury department. It is without Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari, Andre Miller and JaVale McGee. This team has really cooled off offensively as a result, scoring an average of just 94.0 points per game in back-to-back home losses to Charlotte and Toronto.

When you look at the recent history of these teams, which included when Chris Paul was healthy and the Clippers were at their peak offensively, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

In fact, each of the last 15 meetings in this series have seen 215 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 15-0 totals system backing the under dating back to 2009 pertaining to tonight's total set of 216. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER 193

The San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans are both in a world of hurt right now in the injury department. As a result, I expect points to be hard to come by tonight, and for the final combined score of this game to stay well UNDER the number.

San Antonio is expected to be without Danny Green (7.4 ppg), Manu Ginobli (12.1 ppg) and Kawhi Leonard (11.6 ppg) tonight. It has been without these three for a couple games now, and the results have not been pretty. The UNDER is 3-0 in Spurs' last three games overall as they are averaging just 90.3 points/game in the process.

New Orleans is playing without two of its best players in starting point guard Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg). The UNDER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall as they have combined with their last four opponents 192 or fewer points in each game, and an average of 178.3 combined points per game.

The Pelicans are 25-9 to the UNDER in their last 34 home games off an upset win as a home underdog. The UNDER is 6-0 in Spurs last six games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Pelicans last seven games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 3-0 in Spurs last three games, and 4-0 in Pelicans last four games. These four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Magic/Celtics Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +6

The Orlando Magic just recently got back their best player in center Nikola Vucevic. He played in his second game after missing 15 of the team's previous 16 contests because of a concussion. He helped guide the Magic to a 13-102 win over Milwaukee last time out Friday.

Vucevic is one of the most underrated players in the league. He is averaging 13.1 points and 10.8 rebounds per game this season. The Magic are a much better team on both sides of the ball with him in the lineup.

Boston has been dealing with injury issues of its own. It has lost 16 of its last 18 games coming into this one. Jerryd Bayless remains out with a toe injury, while Avery Bradley is expected to play through an ankle injury. Gerald Wallace is questionable for personal reasons Sunday.

I really believe it's more a distraction for the home team when playing on Super Bowl Sunday. There's no question that these players have Super Bowl parties to attend after the game in Boston. They'll be looking forward to those instead of focusing on basketball. I look for this game to be all business for the Magic, who don't have to worry about Super Bowl plans on the road.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off a home win, in February games are 53-21 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Boston is 1-10 ATS off a close home loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The Celtics are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Magic Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER 182

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies today. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle as both teams struggle offensively.

Since January 10, the Grizzlies are allowing an NBA-best 88.8 points per game, which is 6.0 ppg less than second-place Chicago. They are also yielding a league-best 41.7 field-goal percentage over this span. They haven't allow an opponent to score more than 90 during their current five-game winning streak.

That doesn't bode well for the Bucks (8-38), who are scoring an NBA-low 91.9 points per game this season. The good news for the Bucks is that the Grizzlies haven't reached 100 points in any of their last nine games. Plus, leading scorer Mike Conley (18.0 ppg, 6.3 apg) is doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury. This offense will really be out of sync if Conley cannot go.

These teams have played in defensive battles in each of their last two meetings. Memphis won 90-80 at home in their final meeting of 2012-13 for 170 combined points. Memphis also won their first meeting of 2013-14 with an 82-77 road victory on January 15 for 159 combined points. I don't expect this game to come close to 180 combined points, either.

Memphis is 9-0 to the UNDER when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of less than 25% over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 9-0 in Grizzlies last nine games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the league. Tom Thibodeau keeps producing a winner no matter who is on the floor. It's like they didn't even lose their best player in Derrick Rose, or trade away one of their best players in Luol Deng.

Thibodeau could win coach of the year every year with what he's doing with this team. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 15 games overall, which includes a 98-86 road victory at San Antonio last time out on Wednesday. That means they've had two days' rest heading into this one.

New Orleans has lost 10 of its last 14 games overall and should be a much bigger underdog tonight. It remains without two of its best players in Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg). It simply has not been able to make up for these two huge losses, and now leading scorer Anthony Davis (20.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) is banged up with a finger injury.

Chicago wants revenge from a 128-131 overtime loss at home to the Pelicans in their first meeting of the season. That was a rare win for the Pelicans in this series as the Bulls have won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series.

The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to New Orleans dating back to 2009. The road team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Chicago. Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are running on fumes right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 8th game in 12 days, and their 11th game in 17 days. They simply don't have anything left in the tank, and that will show tonight against the Wizards.

Washington will be out for revenge from a 105-106 road loss at Oklahoma City on November 10 as an 8.5-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. The thing about the Wizards is that they have a superstar stopper in Trevor Ariza, who can guard guys like Kevin Durant, Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony as well as just about anyone in the league.

The Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season of late, winning six of their last 10 games overall. That includes victories over Miami, Chicago (twice), Phoenix and Golden State, which equates to five wins over playoff contenders during this stretch. They have bounced back to win from each of their last four losses as well.

Washington is 12-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Wizards are 53-34 ATS in their last 87 games as an underdog. Washington is 13-3 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Wizards are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet Washington Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most improved teams in the league this season. At 24-21, they are a legitimate threat to get the No. 3 seed in the East. But playing in Canada, this team consistently has gone under the radar.

The Raptors should not be an underdog against the depleted Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver is expected to be without Ty Lawson (shoulder) and Nate Robinson (knee). It was already without Andre Miller, so essentially it is missing its top three points guards.

Those injuries contributed to an ugly 98-101 home loss to the Charlotte Bobcats last time out. Lawson is irreplaceable, averaging 17.9 points and 8.9 assists per game this season. Meanwhile, Toronto is expected to get back leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (21.8 ppg) tonight after a two-game absence.

The Raptors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. Toronto is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on one days' rest. The Raptors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last six Friday games. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 Friday games. These last three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing Toronto. Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves +1

The Minnesota Timberwolves are finally playing up to their potential after going 0-11 in their first 11 games that were decided by 4 points or less. This is a dangerous team and one that nobody wants to play come playoff time if they get in.

Minnesota has gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall with its only loss coming at Portland. That includes road victories over both Golden State and Chicago during this stretch. The Timberwolves finally won a close game by a single point at Golden State (121-120), and I believe that result will give them confidence in close games going forward.

Memphis is also playing its best basketball of the season, but it has no business being a road favorite here. Point differential is one of the best indicators of how good a team is. The Timberwolves are outscoring opponents by 4.7 points per game on the season, while the Grizzlies are only outscoring foes by 0.4 points per game.

Plays on home underdogs (MINNESOTA) - off a home win, in January games are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Timberwolves are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games when playing on one days' rest. Minnesota is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Friday games. Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Thunder/Nets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are way overvalued right now due to their 9-game winning streak. They should not be favored at Brooklyn, which is also playing its best basketball of the season.

The Nets have been playing well ever since a 95-93 win at Oklahoma City as a 12-point underdog on January 2. They have gone 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS dating back to that huge win, and I'll gladly back them as a home dog as they come into this game on three days' rest.

The Thunder are in a huge letdown spot. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 112-95 victory at defending champion Miami. It's only human nature for them to let down after such a massive victory on National TV.

Plays against any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 107-56 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games. Take the Nets Friday.

20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -5.5

The Golden State Warriors are a very hungry team right now. They have lost five of their last seven games overall with all five of those losses coming to playoff contenders by 8 points or less. They are coming off an ugly 85-88 home loss to the Wizards.

The Clippers are overvalued and overconfident right now after winning four straight and 10 of their last 12 games overall. This team has been beating up on mostly Eastern Conference bottom feeders during this stretch as eight of the 10 victories came against the East. The other two were at home against the Lakers and Mavs.

My biggest reason for backing the Warriors tonight is that they come in rested with one day off between games, while the Clippers come in very tired. Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days tonight, which is the toughest situation in the NBA.

The home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Golden State is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Los Angeles. Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* Bulls/Spurs ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago +8

The San Antonio Spurs have no business being this heavily favored over the Chicago Bulls with the state they are currently in right now. They are expected to be without three of their best players in Manu Ginobli, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green tonight. Not to mention, Tiago Splitter remains out.

The Spurs have struggled of late due to these injuries. In fact, they have lost four of their last six games overall. This has been a popular team to back off a loss over recent years, but the fact of the matter is that this isn't the same team. The Spurs are depleted, and as a result, this is just an average NBA team right now.

Tom Thibodeau is my favorite head coach in the league. What he has been able to do with Chicago through the injuries to Derrick Rose is nothing short of remarkable. The Bulls have managed to go 10-4 in their last 14 games overall. A big reason for their success is the addition of point guard D.J. Augustine, who has resurrected his career in Chicago. He is averaging 13.6 points and 6.0 assists for the Bulls.

Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. San Antonio is on a second of a back-to-back here after losing in Houston last night, making this situation even tougher with a depleted roster. Roll with the Bulls Wednesday.

15* Bulls/Spurs ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 190

For many of the same reasons I am backing the Bulls in this game, I am also taking the UNDER. San Antonio is without four of its best players in Manu Ginobli, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Tiago Splitter. Chicago is obviously without Derrick Rose. Points are going to be hard to come by.

However, the biggest reason to back the UNDER in this game is the fact that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Indeed, Chicago ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 98.1 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, yielding 99.8 points per 100 possessions.

This has been a very low-scoring series between the Bulls and Spurs as it is, and that trend should continue given the injuries. The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these teams. Better yet, the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 7-3 in Spurs last 10 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Miami -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are way overvalued due to their current 8-game winning streak that has simply seen Kevin Durant go off. Well, that streak is about to end and Durant is about to cool off as he'll be matched up against the best defender in the NBA in Lebron James.

You can bet that King James has heard about what Durant has been doing through the media. These two are 1-2 for the MVP award almost every single year. James is going to want to put Durant in his place tonight, and that extra motivation will help lead to a blowout home victory for the Heat.

There's no question that James and the Heat have gotten the best of Durant and the Thunder in recent years. In fact, Miami is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings with Oklahoma City overall. All seven of those wins have come by 4 points or more as well.

Oklahoma City is a tired team right now as this will be its 6th game in 9 days. Miami is well-rested, having two days off prior to this game to rest up and prepare for the Thunder. The Heat are 19-3 at home this season, so they have protected their home court very well. Take Miami Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this Western Conference rivalry between the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies. I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Since the return of 2012-13 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have gotten back to their usual lockdown defense. They have allowed an average of 86.2 points on 40.3 percent shooting in six contest since Gasol returned from an injured left knee. To no surprise, the UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six games overall.

Memphis also earned its seventh win in eight games Saturday by finishing off a home-and-home sweep of Houston. It held the high-powered Rockets to an average of 84.0 points on 38.8 percent shooting in back-to-back games. That's 21 points below their season average.

Several played for Portland have struggled against Memphis. The Grizzlies gave up an average of 86.0 points on 40.8 percent shooting in four games against Portland in 2012-13, winning the last three.

Nicolas Batum averaged 8.3 points on 30.8 percent shooting in three of those meetings, and Wesley Matthews averaged 10.3 points on 32.4 percent shooting in the three consecutive defeats. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 17.7 points on 36.2 percent shooting in three games. His 15.4 lifetime scoring average versus the Grizzlies is his worst against any opponent.

Each of the last 11 meetings in this series have seen less than 200 combined points. Eight of the last nine meetings have seen 191 or fewer combined points. This makes for an 8-1 (89%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 197.5. The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings in Portland. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings overall.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-8 (78.9%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 191

The Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets will take part in a defensive battle tonight. I look for the final combined score to be similar to the 176 points they put up on a 96-80 Toronto victory on January 11. This will be their 3rd meeting of the season, and familiarity favors defense.

The key to Brooklyn's success recently has been to slow down the pace and play better defense. The Nets are averaging about five possessions fewer per game in January than they were prior to that. Their offensive and defensive efficiency has gone up as a result.

Toronto has been playing at a slow pace all season. It ranks 23rd in pace at 94.6 possessions per game, while Brookiyn is 27th in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. The Raptors rank 6th in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.8 points per 100 possessions.

One big factor that has been backing the UNDER in this game is that Toronto is expected to be without leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan. He suffered a foot sprain against the Clippers on Saturday. DeRozan is in the midst of the best season of his career, averaging 21.8 points per game.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight road games overall. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 19-8 in the last 27 meetings in Brooklyn. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -5

The Phoenix Suns continue to be the most underrated team in the NBA. They have won three of their last four, which includes wins over Denver and Indiana, to get to 25-18 on the season and right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.

The Suns are a league-best 28-14-1 ATS this season, making backers a ton of money. Sure, this is a second of a back-to-back situation, but this is the deepest team in the league, so that's not a problem. Also, they come in with momentum after holding the Cavaliers to 29 points in the second half of a 99-90 comeback road victory Sunday.

I'll gladly fade the Philadelphia 76ers (14-30), who have given up 100 points or more in six straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. They are giving up a league-worst 109.5 points per game this season. Their offense has been struggling to boot, averaging just 94.4 points on 42.4 percent shooting during a 2-9 stretch.

Philadelphia is 1-10 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that average 99 or more points per game this season. The 76ers are 0-7 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this year. Philly is 1-9 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game this season. The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system going against Philadelphia. Take the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Golden State Warriors -4.5

The Golden State Warriors certainly won't be lacking any motivation tonight. They have lost four of their last five games coming in with all four losses coming by eight points or less, and all four against some of the best teams in the league.

The Warriors are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. The same cannot be said for Portland, which will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. The edge in rest, preparation and motivation clearly favors Golden State.

That's also the case when you consider that the Warriors will want revenge from their 101-113 home loss to the Blazers in their first meeting of the season on November 23. The Blazers have lost their last two road games at Houston (113-126) and at Oklahoma City (97-105).

Portland is 1-10 ATS in road games after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 110 or more points in two straight games.

Portland is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games following a win by 10 points or more. Golden State is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. The Blazers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Golden State. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 195

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in a rematch from last night's 88-87 road victory by the Grizzlies, making this a home-and-home situation.

That 175-point total should come as no surprise considering these teams have played in defensive battles dating back to last season. In fact, the last four meetings have seen 175, 192, 179 and 160 combined points. That's an average of 176.5 combined points/game, which is nearly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.

Familiarity breeds low-scoring games. Not only did these teams just face each other last night, but this will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between the Rockets and Grizzlies. This familiarity certainly favors the defenses considering they know what the opposing offenses like to do.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Rockets last five vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four games following a win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Clippers/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers. This team has been counted out all season since the loss of Derrick Rose, and all they've been doing is proving their doubters wrong.

Once again, the Bulls are being overlooked tonight by the books, and we'll take advantage. They have won nine of their last 11 games overall while going 8-3 ATS in the process. This team simply has no quit in them even with the tough circumstances.

The Clippers have really started to show signs of missing Chris Paul of late. They have lost two of their last three games overall, including a 91-95 setback at Charlotte last time out. Making matters worse is that backup PG Darren Collison is nursing a toe injury.

Chicago is 37-16 ATS in its last 53 Friday games. The Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a win. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Hawks UNDER 210

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the San Antonio Spurs and Atlanta Hawks. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle and for neither team to top 105 points in this one.

The reason this total has been inflated is because Atlanta has gone over the number in four straight coming in. That stretch followed six straight unders, and the biggest reason for it is the fact that they have been playing some terrible defensive teams.

San Antonio is no slouch defensively. In fact, it ranks 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.6 points per 100 possessions. After losing two of their last three and giving up 109 and 111 points in the losses, you can bet that Greg Popovich will be stressing defense coming into this one.

Looking at recent history in this series, it's easy to see why there's a ton of value with the UNDER. Each of the last six meetings have seen 202 or less combined points. Not counting overtime, each of the last 22 meetings have seen 210 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 21-0-1 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They came up just short against the defending champion Miami Heat Thursday, and there's no way they'll recover emotionally in time to give the effort it take to beat the Orlando Magic tonight.

Orlando is going to be highly motivated for a victory after losing 12 of its last 13 games overall. It has been playing much better of late, covering three of its last five against the spread with two 3-point losses and a win over the Celtics.

The Lakers are an extremely tired team right now. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days. After covering each of their last six games ATS, they are simply way overvalued in this contest.

The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Los Angeles is just 8-16 on the road this year. Bet the Magic Friday.

20* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Blazers UNDER 221.5

The books have simply set the bar too high in this game tonight between the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers. For starters, the intensity in National TV games usually goes up a notch, and that favors the defenses more than anything.

There's no question that both teams will come in intense after losing their last two games each. The focus for both head coaches will be defense after the Nuggets gave up an average of 117.0 points/game in their two losses, while the Blazers allowed 115.5 points/game in their two defeats.

One surefire way to tell that this total has been inflated is to simply look at the first meeting of the season between these teams on November 1. Oddsmakers set that total at 198, which is nearly 24 points lower than tonight's posted total of 221.5. Portland beat Denver 113-98 for 211 combined points, and I believe a similar combined final is in store tonight.

Denver is 18-6 to the UNDER in its last 24 road games versus bad pressure defensive teams who force 12 or less turnovers per game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games playing on three or more days or rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 6-1 in Nuggets last seven Thursday games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Pacers/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +6.5

The Phoenix Suns remain the most underrated team in the league this season. We are basically at the midpoint of the season, and this team is still 23-17 straight up and 26-13-1 ATS and right in the thick of the playoff race in the stacked Western Conference.

Once again, the Suns are getting overlooked as a 6-point home underdog to the Indiana Pacers when they really shouldn't be a dog in this game at all. Indiana is coming off a big win at Golden State Monday, setting it up for a letdown spot here.

Phoenix has gone 14-6 at home this season to really protect its home floor. Indiana has proven to be beatable on the road at 12-6 on the year. The Suns have won 11 of their last 15 home meetings with the Pacers.

Plays against road teams (INDIANA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=41% on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 73-34 (68.2%) ATS since 1996. The Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Phoenix is 17-7 ATS as an underdog this season. Roll with the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Knicks OVER 204

The Philadelphia 76ers have gone under the total in five straight games heading into this showdown with New York. As a result, the books have been forced to set the bar too low in what I believe will be an absolute shootout tonight.

Philadelphia is combining with its opponents to average 211.1 points per game this season, which is 7.1 points more than tonight's posted total. The 76ers play at the fastest pace in the league with 102.4 possessions per game.

Neither team has been good defensively this season. Philadelphia ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, giving up 105.6 points per 100 possessions, and 109.9 points per game on the year. New York ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, yielding 105.9 points per 100 possessions.

The 76ers are 38-19 to the OVER in their last 57 road games with a total set between 200 and 204.5 points. The OVER is 9-3 in 76ers last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 10-4 in Knicks last 14 games following a loss. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Raptors UNDER 202

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between Dallas and Toronto. These teams played in a 109-108 overtime thriller in their first meeting of the season, and it's going to take overtime again to push this total over the number.

After giving up 94 or fewer points in six straight and nine of their last 10, the Raptors have allowed 100-plus points in each of their last two games, both losses. They can point to their defense for the defeats, and I look for them to get back to playing the excellent D that they have been all year tonight.

Toronto will control the tempo playing at home tonight. It ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 94.7 possessions per game. The key to Toronto's turnaround this season has been its defense. It ranks 6th in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 100.2 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 75-30 (71.4%) over the last five seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavs last five vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Toronto. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics +9.5

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat tonight. They catch the Heat playing their worst basketball of the season, and I look for them to give the defending champs a run for their money.

Indeed, Miami has lost four of its last six games overall. Now, it is in a very tough situation returning home from a six-game road trip. Making matters worse for the Heat is the fact that they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.

Despite being on a tough run of late, Boston has shown some fight. It has covered the spread in five of its last eight games overall, which includes losses at the Clippers (105-111) as an 11-point dog, at the Warriors (97-99) as an 11.5-point dog, and at the Blazers (104-112) as a 12-point dog. The Celtics have lost their last four road games all by 8 points or less.

Boston beat Miami 111-110 on the road in their first meeting of the season. Plays against home teams (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +1.5

The Golden State Warriors should not be an underdog at home to the Indiana Pacers tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price in a game that I believe they win with ease.

After losing two of their last three games overall to the Nuggets and Thunder, I look for the Warriors to try and make a statement tonight. The defensive intensity will be there after giving up massive point totals to both the Nuggets (123) and Thunder (127).

Indiana comes in overvalued due to winning four straight games coming in. All four of those wins came at home, but the Pacers have proven to be beatable on the road, posting an 11-6 record. Golden State is 12-5 at home this season.

Plays against road favorites (INDIANA) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-25 (70.6%) ATS since 1996.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. The home team is also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Warriors Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -5

The Miami Heat are back on track with two straight wins over Philadelphia and Charlotte. I look for them to cap off their current six-game road trip with a blowout victory at Atlanta after starting the trip on a three-game skid.

Since losing star center Al Horford, the Atlanta Hawks have really struggled. They have lost five of their last seven games overall while going 2-5 ATS in the process. This team was already lacking talent even with Horford, but without him they're in a world of hurt.

Plays on road favorites (MIAMI) - off a road win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.

Miami is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 200 and 204.5 over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 9-21 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last two years. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games playing on three or more days rest. Bet the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns +1

After losing four of their last five games overall, the Phoenix Suns will be highly motivated for a victory when they host the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. I look for them to continue their dominance of this team and to get right back on track.

Phoenix is a very solid 22-17 on the season, which includes two wins over Denver already. It won 114-103 at home on November 8, and 103-99 on the road on December 20. The Suns are now 24-8 straight up in their last 32 home meetings with the Nuggets.

The Suns are a very solid 13-6 at home this season, while the Nuggets are just 9-10 on the road and have historically struggled away from home. The Nuggets just lost at home to Cleveland last time out, and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. loss.

Denver is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after scoring 55 or more points in the first half of two straight games. Phoenix is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. Northwest Division opponents. The Suns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Phoenix is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games when playing on one days' rest. Roll with the Suns Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Pelicans UNDER 204.5

After back-to-back poor defensive performances in giving up 123 points to Denver and 127 to Oklahoma City, you can bet that head coach Mark Jackson isn't going to stand for it. He'll get after his team, and the Warriors will respond with a much better effort defensively tonight.

Making matters easier for the Warriors is the fact that they'll be playing against a New Orleans team that is short-handed right now. The Pelicans are without leading scorer Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg) and starting point guard Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg). They may also be without fifth-leading scorer Tyreke Evans (12.6 ppg), who is questionable with an ankle injury.

New Orleans has really struggled offensively of late. It has scored 96 or fewer points in six of its last eight games overall. Golden State had given up 102 or fewer in five straight games before its last two poor performances.

Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 203 or fewer combined points with totals of 197, 203, 186 and 165 points, respectively. Dating back further, nine of the last 10 meetings have seen 203 or less points, making for a 90% system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +2

The Phoenix Suns are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to the Dallas Mavericks Friday. They are a home underdog and really should not be. But just like they have been all season, this team is getting overlooked.

Indeed, Phoenix is 22-16 straight up on the year and a very healthy 25-12 ATS. This team has the best ATS mark in the entire league, which is the ultimate sign that a team is undervalued.

Dallas is coming off a big loss at the Los Angeles Clippers by a final of 127-129, and it will suffer a hangover off that defeat. That's especially the case considering it has a huge game against Portland on deck tomorrow night. It will be looking ahead to that contest as well.

Phoenix is 13-5 straight up at home this season. Plays on home underdog (Phoenix) off a home win, in January games are 54-20 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Suns are 17-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Phoenix is 20-5-1 ATS in its last 26 games when playing on 1 days rest. The Suns are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Phoenix Friday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +4.5

The Washington Wizards are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They not only beat the defending champion Miami Heat last time out, they destroyed them 114-97. They are certainly feeling good about themselves heading into this game with Chicago tonight.

The Wizards are primed for a huge letdown following that win. Adding to the letdown factor is the fact that Washington beat Chicago 102-88 on the road on January 13 just five days ago. I really believe the Wizards won't even show up tonight.

The Bulls, meanwhile, will be out for revenge from that loss earlier this week. This team has been playing great, but it continues to get disrespected. The Bulls have won six of their last seven games overall behind the most underrated head coach in the business in Tom Thibodeau.

Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 Friday games. Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Friday game. The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +2

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a well-rested team. This will only be their second game in five days, so they'll be ready to go tonight. This is the best team in the league that currently has a losing record, without question.

In fact, the Timberwolves are 0-11 in games decided by four points or less this season. That's how close they are to being a 29-9 team rather than an 18-20 one. Due to having a losing record, this team is going to be showing great value going forward.

I have been big on Toronto for much of the season, but it should not be a favorite against Minnesota tonight. The Raptors are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but they aren't better than a middle-of-the-pack team from the West.

Minnesota is 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. It is coming back to win 114.7 to 100.6 in this spot, or by an average of 14.1 points per game. The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS off a home loss this year, winning 118.4 to 98.3 in this spot, or by an average of 20.1 points per game. Take the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Thunder/Rockets TNT Thursday BAILOUT on Houston -2

The Houston Rockets are going to be out for revenge in a big way tonight when they welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Toyota Center. That's why I'm not concerned that they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back, because they'll want this one enough that fatigue will not be a factor.

The reason Houston is going to be extra motivated is not only the fact that it lost to Oklahoma City in six games in the playoffs last year, but also that it suffered its worst loss of 2013-14 to the Thunder as well. The Rockets fell 86-117 on December 29 in Oklahoma City.

The biggest difference from then and now is that the Thunder no longer have Russell Westbrook. They clearly aren't even close to the same team without their start point guard. In fact, the Thunder have lost five of their last eight games overall with their three wins coming against Boston, Minnesota and Milwaukee.

Houston is 15-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game. The Rockets are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off a road non-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Houston is 34-16 ATS in its last 50 games off a road win by 3 points or less. The Rockets are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 home games off a road win against a division rival. Houston is 37-15-3 ATS in its last 55 Thursday games. Take the Rockets Thursday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +10.5

The New York Knicks get the nod Thursday as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. They have really turned it around of late and are playing their best basketball of the season heading into tonight's contest.

New York has won five of its last six games overall, which includes victories over the likes of Dallas, Miami and Phoenix. The big reason for the turnaround has been the return of health to both Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton.

The motivation factor is clearly going to be on the Knicks' side in this one. They lost in six games to Indiana in the playoffs last season, and they also fell in overtime 96-103 in their first meeting of the 2013-14 campaign. New York is going to be out for blood tonight.

Plays against home favorites (INDIANA) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. New York is 20-0 ATS revenging a loss where opponents scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons. Bet the Knicks Thursday.