15* Pacers/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 215

The Oklahoma City Thunder play defense at home.  They are 19-11 to the UNDER in home games this season while giving up just 98.8 points per game.  It's clear to me that this total has been set way too high tonight for that reason alone.

Oklahoma City is combining for roughly 208 points per game at home this season with their opponents.  Indiana is combining for roughly 204 points per game on the road with their opponents this season.  As you can see, both numbers are well below this 215-point total.

The Thunder and Pacers have combined for 212 or fewer points in 7 of their last 8 meetings as well.  They are averaging 199.7 combined points per game in their last 7 meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 215.

Oklahoma City is 11-1 to the UNDER in home games off a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 12-1 to the UNDER after a game where they made 12 or more of their 3-point shots over the last two years.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Wizards UNDER 209

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle that comes nowhere near this 209-point total tonight.

Recent head-to-head history also supports this play.  The UNDER is 2-0-1 in the last three meetings.  They Pistons and Wizards have combined for 192, 194 and 195 points in those three meetings.  That's an average of 193.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 209.

Detroit is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in road games after having lost four of its last five games over the last two seasons.  It is combining with its opponents for an average of 181.7 points per game in this spot.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Wizards last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Look for the defensive intensity to be high in this game as both teams come out of the break fighting to make the playoffs.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Bulls/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 207

Death, taxes and the Bulls/Cavs playing in a low-scoring game are the only things that are certain in life.  Both the Bulls and Cavs will be rusty from the long layoff due to the All-Star Break, which further makes me like this UNDER tonight.

The Bulls and Cavs have combined for 207 or fewer points in nine straight meetings.  They have combined for 179, 192, 167, 207, 170, 195, 197, 191 and 193 points in those nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 187.9 combined points per game, which is more than 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.

I just don't know where the Bulls are going to get their offense from right now.  They are without leading scorer Jimmy Butler as well as 3-point specialist Nikola Mirotic and his 10.6 points per game.  The Bulls were held to 90 and 91 points in their final two games before the break, and it's not going to get any easier against the Cavs tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 29-6 (82.9%) over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 8-0 UNDER when playing with 3 or more days' rest over the last two seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Pelicans/Thunder TNT ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +12

The New Orleans Pelicans are showing excellent value tonight as double-digit underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road.  I like the way they are playing right now, and I look for a big effort from them tonight.

The Pelicans are 2-0 in their last two games with a 14-point win at Minnesota and a 4-point home win over red-hot Utah.  I know the Pelicans played last night, which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they will be able to push through it knowing that this is their final game prior to the All-Star Break.

The Thunder have been consistently overvalued all season.  They own one of the league's worst ATS record (20-32) this season because they are consistently laying double-digits.  They have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall despite going 7-2 SU because they haven't been able to cover these big spreads with any consistency.

New Orleans is actually 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three visits to OKC.  It lost by 7 as 12-point dogs, won by 3 as 6-point dogs, and won by 2 as 7-point dogs in those three contests.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. NBA Northwest Division foes.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games playing on 0 days' rest.  The Thunder are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  OKC is 8-22-1 ATS in its last 31 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.

15* Rockets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 214

The recent history between the Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers warrants a bet on the UNDER tonight when these two teams get together on National TV.  It's easy to see that there's value with this UNDER 214 tonight, especially since both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively with this game airing on ESPN.

The Rockets and Blazers have combined for 211 or fewer points in seven straight meetings.  They have combined for 207 or fewer in all games that did not go to overtime during this stretch.  They have averaged 199 combined points per game in those seven meetings at the end of regulation, which is 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.

These teams just met four days ago on Saturday with the Blazers winning a defensive struggle by a final of 96-79.  That's 175 combined points, and 39 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.  While I don't expect the rematch to be as low-scoring, I do expect it to easily stay UNDER this total.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Blazers last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Blazers last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 35-16-2 in Blazers last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Celtics UNDER 209

The Boston Celtics are extremely tired right now.  They fought back from a huge 4th quarter deficit to tie the game late, only to lose to the Bucks 111-112 last night.  They aren't going to have a lot left in the tank, so don't expect them to be running the fast break as much as they normally would.

The Los Angeles Clippers have had to adjust their style of play to a more half-court game since losing Blake Griffin.  The results have produced a lot of UNDERS here of late.  Indeed, the UNDER is 7-1-2 in Clippers last 10 games overall.

Los Angeles is shutting teams down defensively.  It has allowed 93 or fewer points in seven of its last eight games overall.  The Clippers have also been held to 100 or fewer points in five of their last nine games overall as well.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Clippers last seven road games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Clippers last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings.

Los Angeles is 14-3 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  Boston is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games vs. a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 14-2 to the UNDER versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -1.5

We are getting the Dallas Mavericks at a tremendous discount at home tonight.  They are only 1.5-point favorites over the Utah Jazz when I believe this line should be Dallas -5 or -6.  We'll gladly take advantage as the Mavs essentially just have to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread.

The Mavs are undervalued due to losing three of their last four games coming in.  But they got back on track with a 114-110 win at Memphis last time out, and I look for them to string together consecutive victories here.  The Mavs are 15-10 at home on the season.

The Jazz are overvalued due to winning six straight coming in.  But five of those wins came at home against suspect competition in the Hornets, T'Wolves, Bulls, Nuggets and Bucks, while the only road win came against the lowly Phoenix Suns.

The Mavs simply own the Jazz, going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings dating back to 2013.  In fact, the Mavs are 10-0 in their last 10 home meetings with the Jazz dating back to 2010, and it is 22-2 at home against Utah since 2003.  Enough said.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 208.5

I fully expect the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics to play part in a defensive battle tonight as oddsmakers have set this total way too high with a 208.5 total set.  When you look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see that there is value with the UNDER.

Indeed, the Celtics and Bucks have combined for 208 or fewer points in 25 of their last 26 meetings.  That makes for a 25-1 system backing the UNDER tonight when you consider the 208.5-point total set in this one.  In their only meeting this season, the Celtics won 99-83 on the road for 182 combined points.

While Boston likes to play at a fast pace, Milwaukee prefers to slow it down.  The Bucks rank 24th in the NBA in pace at 96.1 possessions per game.  They will control the tempo in this game tonight since they are playing at home.

Boston is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 road games with a total set between 205 and 209.5 points.  The Celtics are 15-7 UNDER in road games with a total of 200 or more this season.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Milwaukee.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -3

The Memphis Grizzlies are showing tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  We'll gladly take advantage and back the Grizzlies in a game I believe they'll win going away.

The Grizzlies are playing well right now having gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall.  But they are coming off an overtime home loss to the Mavericks, which I believe has them undervalued coming into this one.  The Blazers are coming off a blowout road win at Houston, which has them overvalued coming in.

The Grizzlies are 19-8 SU at home this season, while the Blazers are 10-16 SU on the road.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Grizzlies are 10-2 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Blazers.

Memphis is a perfect 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Portland.  The Grizzlies have won 15 of the past 18 meetings overall, including playoffs, so they clearly have the Blazers' number.  Look for that dominance to continue tonight as we're catching them as small home favorites here.  Take the Grizzlies Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Hawks UNDER 203

The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic are playing in a home-and-home situation.  They just played in Orlando on Sunday in a 96-94 victory by the Magic, and now they'll be playing in Atlanta this time around a day later.

Since these teams just played yesterday, they are obviously very familiar with one another.  That makes me really like the UNDER in the rematch, because familiarity favors the defenses.  It also doesn't hurt that they only combined to score 190 points yesterday, and now we're getting 13 extra points with this UNDER on a total of 203.

In fact, this has been a low-scoring series as it is.  The Hawks and Magic have combined to score 203 or fewer points in seven straight meetings.  They have combined for 190, 179, 203, 178, 183, 199 and 168 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 185.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Suns UNDER 190.5

Since returning a healthy Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors to the lineup, the Utah Jazz have returned to being defensive juggernauts.  In fact, they are the best defensive team in the NBA with those two on the floor.

That has really been on display here of late.  Indeed, the Jazz have allowed 81, 81, 96, 90, 73, 95 and 86 points in their last seven games, respectively.  Their job will be easy today against a Suns team that is missing its top two guards in Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe, as well as their instant-offense bench player in TJ Warren.

The Suns have been held to 98 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  They have been held to 89 and 85 points in their last two meetings with the Jazz as well.  The last meeting at Phoenix saw 172 combined points in an 87-85 victory for the Suns.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Phoenix.

Phoenix is 15-4 to the UNDER in home games after allowing 110 points or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Jazz last 21 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Suns last seven games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.  The 34-15-2 in Suns last 51 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER 194.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks both played last night.  The Grizzlies won 91-85 at New York, while the Mavs lost 90-116 at home to the Spurs.  So both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and neither will have the energy to look to run much in this game as a result.

Both teams already play at slow paces as it is.  Memphis ranks 27th in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Dallas ranks 21st at 96.6 possessions per game.  The Grizzlies are also just 22nd in offensive efficiency, while the Mavs are 13th.

The last meeting between these teams on December 18 saw 185 combined points with a 97-88 home victory by the Mavs.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Mavs last seven games following a loss by 10 points or more.  The UNDER is 14-6-1 in Mavs last 21 games vs. Western Conference opponents. 

The UNDER is 25-10 in Grizzlies last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Grizzlies last 14 games playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 45-22-1 in Grizzlies last 68 Saturday games.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -7

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight following their upset loss to the Charlotte Hornets on the road last time out.  Look for them to return home and easily cover this spread against the Boston Celtics in a blowout victory.

That was a rare loss for the Cavaliers, who had won five straight games prior to that loss to the Hornets.  Four of those five victories came by 8 points or more, including a 14-point win over the Spurs and a 22-point win over the Suns.  They'll get back to playing solid basketball tonight at home, where they are 19-3 on the season.

The Cavaliers have owned the Celtics in recent meetings, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  All five victories have come by 8 points or more, and the last three have all come on the road.  That's why they should have no problem winning by 8-plus points tonight to cover this generous 7-point spread.

Cleveland is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games after getting outrebounded by 20-plus boards in its previous game.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - after 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 2 or more consecutive unders are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Cavaliers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +4.5

The Orlando Magic are undervalued right now due to losing 10 of their last 11 games overall coming in.  They desperately need to get back on track before the All-Star Break and make a push to make the playoffs.  They still sit at 21-27 on the season and not too far out.

I have successfully backed the Magic in each of their last three contests.  They won outright by 5 as 4-point dogs to the Celtics at home, lost to the Spurs by 15 as 16-point road dogs, and only lost to the Thunder by 3 as 11.5-point dogs.  They are once again home underdogs tonight, and we'll take advantage.

The Clippers have either lost outright or won by exactly 2 points in four of their last six games overall.  They lost at Toronto by 18 and at home to Minnesota by 6 despite being 10.5-point favorites.  They only won by 2 at Indiana and by 2 at Atlanta.  Their only bigger victories during this stretch both came at home over Chicago and the Lakers.

Orlando is 7-0 ATS after playing four consecutive games as an underdog this season.  The Magic are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference.  Orlando is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The home team is 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* Raptors/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +1

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing great value as home underdogs to the Toronto Raptors tonight.  We'll take advantage and back the Blazers behind one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.

The Blazers are 15-10 at home this season and come in playing their best basketball of the year.  They have gone 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and they are 7-0 at home during this stretch with wins over the likes of the Thunder, Jazz and Hawks.

The Raptors could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now due to winning 12 of their last 13 games coming in.  That has shown in their last four as they've gone 0-4 ATS with narrow wins over the Knicks, Pistons and Suns and a blowout road loss to the Nuggets by 19.

The Blazers own the Raptors, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  They are also 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings.  Portland is 90-61 ATS in its last 151 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less.  The Raptors are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Thursday games, while the Blazers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 Thursday games.  Roll with the Blazers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +12

The Orlando Magic have been undervalued here of late due to an 8-game losing streak.  I backed them with success in each of their last two games.  They won 119-114 over Boston as 4-point home dogs, and lost 92-107 at San Antonio as 16-point road dogs in a game that was close throughout and one they never trailed by more than 16.

The Magic continue to be undervalued here tonight as double-digit road dogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  At the same time, the Thunder are overvalued due to winning 11 of their last 12.  But the Thunder have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games with just one win by more than 10 points during that span.  The Thunder are 10-18 ATS at home this season.

Orlando wants serious revenge on Oklahoma City after losing 136-139 (OT) in their first meeting this season.  Russell Westbrook hit a game-tying 3-pointer at the end of regulation to force OT.  The Magic have played the Thunder tough in recent meetings, only once losing by more than 8 points in their last six meetings.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.

The Magic are 8-1 ATS after playing three consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Orlando is 12-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 53-25 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Thunder are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Wizards ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Washington +11

The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value tonight as double-digit home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors.  I look for them to keep this game close for four quarters and to possibly pull off the upset in the end.

The Wizards come into this game undervalued because they have underachieved on the season, going just 21-25 to this point.  They have also lost four of their last five coming in, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.

The Warriors are overvalued due to having the league's best record at 44-4.  They have also won seven straight coming in, so the betting public continues to back them at an alarming rate.  Oddsmakers aren't just going to keep letting the public win on the Warriors, so they're forced to over-adjust, providing excellent line value to fade them here tonight.

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 59-33 (64.1%) ATS since 1996.  Golden State is 4-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Wizards are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4

The Houston Rockets come into this game undervalued due to a 3-game losing streak.  That makes them highly motivated for a victory here tonight as the three losses have come to the Spurs, Thunder and Wizards with two of them on the road, which has been no bargain.

The Miami Heat come into this game overvalued due to a 4-game winning streak.  Three of the four wins came by 5 points or less.  But the Heat won all four games against Eastern Conference opponents, and now they'll have to take a step up in competition against the West here.

This is a better scheduling spot for the Rockets, too.  They come in on two days' rest, while the Heat come in on just one day of rest, and this will be their 12th road game in their last 14 contests.  The Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on two days' rest.  The home team has gone 5-1 SU in the last six meetings between these teams.

The Heat are 17-39-2 ATS in their last 58 games following a straight up win.  The Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Plays on any team (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog are 70-35 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +16

The San Antonio Spurs are simply laying too many points tonight against the Orlando Magic.  They are overvalued due to their 25-0 home record, which is impressive, but it's going to make it increasingly more difficult to cover these massive spreads.

The Spurs have recently been blown out by 30 by the Warriors and by 14 by the Cavaliers in two of their last three games, and they have to be questioning themselves right now.  There's no question this is a great team, but they could definitely suffer a hangover from those two losses to two of the best teams in the NBA.

The Magic are undervalued right now due to losing eight of their last nine games overall.  But six of those losses came by single-digits, so they were simply unfortunate in close games.  They got a big 119-114 win against Boston yesterday to end this skid, and should come into this game against the Spurs with a lot more confidence as a result.

Orlando has played San Antonio tough in its last two road meetings.  It only lost by 7 as 13.5-point dogs and by 9 as 16-point dogs in his last two trips to San Antonio.  The Magic haven't lost by more than 14 in any of their last seven trips to San Antonio, making for a perfect 7-0 system backing them pertaining to this 16-point spread.

The Magic are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.  Plays on road underdogs (ORLANDO) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1996.  The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Magic Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are showing great value as small home favorites over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  I'll gladly back them as only 2-point favorites here as they continue making a surge prior to the All-Star Break to try and inch closer to the 8th seed in the playoffs.

The Pelicans have gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall.  Their last five losses have all come by 5 points or less, which is how close they are to being 12-0 in their last 12 games.  Anthony Davis is back healthy, and he makes all the difference for this team.

One of those losses came 99-101 at Memphis on January 18, so the Pelicans will be out for revenge in the rematch only two weeks later, but it's at home this time around.  The Pelicans are 13-10 at home this season, while the Grizzlies are just 9-13 on the road.

Memphis is overvalued right now due to winning 9 of its last 11, but nine of those games have come at home.  In its two road games during this stretch, it barely won 102-101 at Denver and lost 101-106 at Minnesota.  The Grizzlies simply are not very good on the road this year.

The Grizzlies are 2-10 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings in this series.  The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Memphis.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +4.5

I love these home-and-home situations in the NBA.  A home-and-home situation is where two teams square off in two consecutive games on each other's floor.  That's the case here with the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics Sunday.

Orlando lost 94-113 at Boston on Friday in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Celtics turned a 2-point, 3rd quarter lead into a blowout victory in the 4th quarter.  Now, the Magic get the Celtics at home this time around, and they will be in serious revenge mode.

Adding to the Magic's motivation is the fact that they need to get on track going into the All-Star Break after losing eight straight games coming in.  This team is not as bad as the results have shown of late as seven of their last nine losses have come by single-digits, but they've simply had poor luck in close games of late.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.  I fully expect the Magic to end their losing streak and to get revenge on the Celtics Sunday with an outright victory.  Take the Magic Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

This is a very generous line from oddsmakers tonight.  The Memphis Grizzlies should be much higher than just 2.5-point home favorites over the Sacramento Kings.  We'll gladly take advantage and back the Grizzlies at a discount here.

Memphis comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 8-2 in its last 10 games overall.  The Grizzlies have really been doing some serious damage at home, going 18-7 at home on the season, including 11-1 in their last 12 home games overall.  Yet they're only 2.5-point favorites? Give me a break.

The Kings are in a tough scheduling spot as they will be playing their 3rd straight road games after back-to-back blowout losses to the Blazers (by 15) and Pelicans (by 9).  They will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days, and they have been showing signs of wearing down.  Plus, the Kings are 8-14 on the road this season, giving up 109.2 points per game away from home.

The Grizzlies have owned the Kings to boot.  They are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings, including a 103-89 road victory as 4-point favorites in their lone meeting this season.  Now they are only 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch? Again, it doesn't make sense, and I don't believe it's one of those situations where it's too good to be true.  The Kings are simply overvalued right now.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Jazz UNDER 195.5

The Utah Jazz recently returned their two best players in Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors.  These two are extremely important because of their defense, which has led to some tremendous efforts on that end of the floor of late for the Jazz.

They have held their last three opponents to 86, 95 and 73 points for an average of 84.7 points per game.  They will make life difficult on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, who rank 21st in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  This game will be played at a snail's pace considering the Jazz rank last in the NBA in pace at 93.2 possessions per game. The Timberwolves are 19th in pace at 97.2 possessions per game.

These teams are known for playing in low-scoring affairs, anyways.  The Jazz and Timberwolves have combined for 194 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five meetings.  They've combined for 174, 188, 188, 190 and 194 points in their last five meetings.  That's an average of 186.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.

Utah is 20-6 to the UNDER after allowing 85 points or less over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 11-2 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or more of their attempts this season.  Utah is 24-6 to the UNDER vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 33% or less of their attempts over the last two years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Knicks UNDER 203.5

The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 93-103 loss at Toronto last night.  They will be tired, and they could be short-handed again.  I look for them to be playing this game at a snail's pace because of their fatigue and their lack of players.

Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Jose Calderon all sat out last night against the Raptors, and it's unlikely that all three will return tonight.  Those are three starters that the Knicks just cannot play without and be any good, and they were fortunate to stay within even 10 points of the Raptors last night, who clearly let off the gas in the second half.  The Knicks have scored 93, 88 and 84 points in three of their last four games.

The Phoenix Suns have injuries of their own that have hurt their offensive production.  They are playing without their two best players in starting guards Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe.  Those were the two guys they could not afford to lose this season, and they have been held to 98 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games as a result.

This has been a low-scoring series even when guys have been healthy.  Indeed, the Knicks and Suns have combined for 191, 189, 200, 184 and 196 points at the end of regulation in their last five meetings.  That's an average of 192.0 combined points per game, which is nearly 12 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.5.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NBA Pre-All Star Break GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic +8

The Orlando Magic are simply desperate for a win tonight.  They have lost seven straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall coming in.  It's safe to say that they will be laying it all on the line to get a victory tonight, and they should have a lot of energy to give considering they come in on two days' rest.

It's not like the Magic haven't been competitive during their 7-game losing streak, though.  They have just had poor luck in close games as six of the seven were decided by single-digits, including five by 6 points or fewer.  Getting 8 points here is a great value given the situation for the Magic, and it's clearly an inflated line due to this losing streak.

It's the perfect storm as the Celtics come in overvalued due to going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. The Celtics are also the more tired team right now as they will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Asking them to win this game by 9-plus points to beat us is simply asking too much.

The Magic have had the Celtics' number in recent meetings, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, including a 110-91 home victory in their only meeting this season.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Plays on road underdogs (ORLANDO) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER 196

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies.  These are two offensively-challenged teams who rely on defense and playing at a slow tempo to win games.

The Grizzlies rank 24th in offensive efficiency, while the Bucks rank 19th.  Memphis ranks 27th in the NBA in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Milwaukee is 24th at 96.1 possessions per contest.  This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring game given these stats.

The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Bucks and Grizzlies.  They have combined for 189 or fewer points in five straight meetings with combined finals of 179, 185, 189, 159 and 170 points.  That's an average of 176.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.

Memphis is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last five games following a win, and 6-1 in Bucks last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +10.5

The New York Knicks are simply catching too many points tonight against the Toronto Raptors.  Asking the Raptors to win by double-digits tonight to beat us is simply asking too much, so we'll side with the road underdog Knicks in this one.

The Knicks have been undervalued all season, so it's no surprise that they continue to be here.  They have gone 27-20 ATS in all games, including 14-10 ATS in road games.  They are hungry for a win tonight following three consecutive losses, including an overtime loss to Oklahoma City last time out on Tuesday.

The Raptors could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  That's because they've gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, and the betting public has taken notice, driving this line all the way up to 10.5.  This is the Raptors' 2nd-biggest spread since the start of this winning streak with a previous high of 11.

New York is 13-5 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games this season.  The Knicks are 8-1 ATS versus teams who outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game this season.  New York is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Toronto is 0-6 ATS in its last six Thursday games.  New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Toronto.  The underdog is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* Mavs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +17

The Golden State Warriors are in a massive letdown spot here tonight at home against the Dallas Mavericks.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a dominant 120-90 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. That result has them overvalued here.

The Mavericks were in a letdown spot last night against the Lakers as they were looking ahead to this game.  They managed to win that game 92-90 despite not even showing up.  But that narrow win over a poor team has them undervalued here.  I look for the Mavs to come back with an all-out effort tonight.

The Warriors have only beaten the Mavs by more than this 17-point margin once in the last 14 meetings, making for a 13-1 system backing the Mavs pertaining to this massive spread tonight.  Dallas beat Golden State 114-91 at home in their first and only meeting this season.  Granted, it was without Steph Curry, but it was impressive nonetheless because the Mavs were 3.5-point dogs.

The Mavericks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.  The Mavericks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.  The Warriors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the Mavericks Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Hawks -4

This is a great spot to fade the Los Angeles Clippers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days as they wrap up a 5-game road trip at Atlanta tonight.  They will have nothing left in the tank for this one.

Meanwhile, the Hawks come in well-rested and ready to go.  This will be just their 3rd game in 6 days as they had yesterday off following a 119-105 win at Denver.  Now the Hawks get to return home where they are 15-7 on the season and outscoring opponents by 5.9 points per game.

The Hawks have had the Clippers' number in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & and a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Their only loss during this stretch came by a single point 109-108 in Los Angeles.  Three of their four wins came by 9 points or more.

The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a straight up win.  The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +8

The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value tonight as big road underdogs to the Toronto Raptors.  They got blown out of the building last night by the Celtics, so that result has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them.  Now is the time to jump on the Wizards at a great price.

Washington showed some rust after a 4-day layoff yesterday, shooting just 42.7% from the field in the loss to the Celtics.  That's why I'm not concerned that they'll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, because they had four days off before that game.  They will come back with a much sharper performance tonight.

The Wizards have actually played their best basketball on the road this season, going 10-8 SU & 11-7 ATS in all road games.  In fact, the Wizards are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five road games, winning at Indiana (by 14), at Chicago (by 14), at Orlando (by 6), at Brooklyn (by 15), while narrowly losing at Toronto (by 3).

Now the Wizards will be playing with triple revenge after losing the first three meetings with the Raptors this season, including that 3-point heartbreaker on the road.  The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Toronto, not once losing by more than 3 points, and pulling off two outright upsets in the process.  The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Raptors.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Washington is 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games following two consecutive home games.  Plays against any team (TORONTO) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more are 49-26 (65.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Wizards are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.  Roll with the Wizards Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers +1.5

The Indiana Pacers are in desperate need of a win right now.  They went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games heading into this game with five of those contests played on the road.  It was a brutal stretch, but now they return home motivated for a victory.

The Pacers should be primed for a big performance because they have had two days' rest since last playing in Sacramento on Saturday.  They return home where they are 13-6 SU & 11-8 ATS on the season, outscoring opponents by nearly 6 points per game.

The Clippers are finally starting to show signs of missing Blake Griffin.  They have lost three of their last five games overall with blowout road losses to Cleveland (by 13) and Toronto (by 18) in the process.  The Pacers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Clippers.

Indiana is 9-1 ATS when playing with two days' rest this season, and 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games on two days' rest.  The Pacers clearly benefit from getting extra time off.  Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5

I've been riding the New Orleans Pelicans with a ton of success of late.  I'll continue riding them tonight as the odds simply have not caught up to how well they are playing right now.  They should be more than 4.5-point home favorites over the Houston Rockets tonight.

The Pelicans are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, which is how close they are to being 9-0 in their last nine games.  Four of their last five victories have come by 12 points or more, so they are dominating the opposition.

Houston is in a tough spot tonight as it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days.  This is a tired team already, and making matters worse is the fact that the Rockets are expected to be without Dwight Howard.  The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be the fresher team.
 
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 16-7-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.  Take the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2.5

The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight.  There are a number of factors in favor of the Wizards, not the least of which is the fact that they'll be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep after losing their first three meetings with Boston this year.

The Wizards have been playing well of late.  They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall, which includes blowout road wins over Chicago (by 14) and Indiana (by 14), as well as a blowout home win over Miami (by 19).  One of their two losses was a tough 117-119 home loss to these Celtics on January 16, so they'll be motivated to avenge that defeat just over a week ago.

Washington will be the much more rested team heading in.  Indeed, it has had a whopping four days off in between games, so it will be fresh and ready to go.  Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 7th game in 11 days, so it is running on fumes right now.  Look for the Wizards to win all of the hustle plays tonight.

Plays on home favorites (WASHINGTON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 63-30 (67.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Wizards are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this game with the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.  I look for them to continue to roll tonight and to easily cover this 2-point spread.

Toronto has gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall with all six of the wins coming by 6 points or more, including five by 9 points or more.  The Clippers are playing well, too, but they are still without Blake Griffin.  Plus, this will be their 3rd road game in 4 days, so it's a tough spot for them.

The Raptors have had the Clippers' number in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Clippers.  They won by 11 points on the road, by 16 at home, and by 12 on the road, so these games haven't even been close.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Toronto is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 meetings with Los Angeles, including 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Suns UNDER 207

The books have set the bar way too high in this game tonight between the Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle, which has been the case in recent meetings between these teams as well.

Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 165, 183 and 197 points.  That's an average of just 181.7 combined points per game, which is more than 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.  All three previous totals were set at 200-plus points as well.

Phoenix is having trouble scoring due to all of its injuries.  It has scored 97 or fewer points in five of its last six games, including just 90.0 points per game in its last three.  The Suns are an absolute mash unit right now, with the key being them missing their two starting guards in Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight.  But P.J. Tucker, Mirza Teletovic and Markieff Morris are all questionable to play tonight as well.

Atlanta is 11-1 to the UNDER after two straight games where its opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls this season.  Phoenix is 14-4 UNDER in home games after allowing 110 points or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

Despite being just 15-27 on the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are just four games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They are doing their best to finish strong prior to the All-Star Break to close the gap.

Indeed, New Orleans is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It won by 12 at Sacramento, by 2 against Charlotte, by 15 over Minnesota and by 16 over Detroit.  Its last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so it is very close to being 8-0 in its last eight games overall.

Now the Pelicans get to host a tired Milwaukee Bucks team that is coming off a 98-102 loss at Houston last night.  Now the Bucks will be playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Pelicans had Friday off following their blowout home win over the Pistons on Thursday.  The rest situation clearly favors the Pelicans.

New Orleans has had Milwaukee's number in recent meetings, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 2 or more consecutive unders are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are going to be highly motivated for a win after back-to-back road losses to Dallas (in OT) and Toronto (by 6).  They had won three straight prior to those two close losses.

The Chicago Bulls are not playing well at all right now.  They have gone 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, including a 31-point home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday.  They needed overtime to beat the 76ers for one of their two wins during this stretch, and they lost to the Hawks by 15 and Wizards by 14 as well.

The Bulls are just 8-9 on the road this season, giving up a whopping 105.2 points per game away from home.  Boston is 11-10 at home, outscoring teams by 4.2 points per game and scoring 103.0 points per game at home.  The home team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.

Boston is 11-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 42-23 ATS in their last 65 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -1

With an 18-23 record on the season, the Sacramento Kings would actually be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today.  They have put themselves in this position with some excellent play over the last few weeks.

Indeed, the Kings are 6-3 in their last nine games overall with a 1-point loss to Dallas and another loss to Golden State.  They are coming off a 3-0 road trip in which they beat the Jazz, Clippers and Lakers.  This is a team that is only going to continue to get better.

While the Kings will be playing the second of a back-to-back after topping the Lakers 112-93 last night, they had three days off prior to that game, so they won't be tired.  The same cannot be said for the Hawks, who will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after their 104-98 win in Portland last night.  The difference is that the Hawks will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, while this is just the 2nd game in 5 days for Sacramento.

The Kings are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Kings Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

Even after their poor 14-27 start to the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are still well within reach of the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They are finally playing up to their potential of late and should continue to play well at home tonight against the Detroit Pistons.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four games overall.  Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so they have been very close to putting together a 7-game winning streak.  They opened their 7-game home stand with a 114-99 beat down of Minnesota, and now they'll be playing their second game on this home stand.

They get to face the Detroit Pistons, who are in an awful spot tonight.  Detroit will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a high-scoring affair with the Rockets last night.  The Pistons won that game 123-114, but they were fortunate that Dwight Howard had to leave the game with an injury in the first minute of the game.

The Pelicans have owned the Pistons, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  In fact, the Pelicans are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings with the Pistons as well.  They essentially just have to win the game with this 2-point spread, so I thing we're getting them at a great value tonight give the situation for Detroit.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -4

The Washington Wizards are starting to get healthy and will be a dangerous team going forward.  John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat and Nene are the core of this team, and all four are healthy now.  Look for the Wizards to make a run after a frustrating, injury-plagued first half of the season.

The Wizards have won four of their last six coming in, which includes impressive double-digit road victories over the Magic (by 16), Bulls (by 14) and Pacers (by 14).  But they are back to being undervalued after two straight home losses to the Celtics and Blazers.

The Miami Heat are playing their worst basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 79-91 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  That means they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days, which is a very tough spot.  They are without their top two point guards in Goran Dragic and Beno Udrih, which makes matters worse.

The Wizards are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.  Washington is 14-6 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7

After getting off to a promising 19-13 start this season, the Orlando Magic have lost seven of their last eight games overall to fall to .500 at 20-20.  It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid.

They will have no problem getting back on track against the league's worst team in the Philadelphia 76ers.  The 76ers are 5-38 on the season, but they actually come into this game overvalued due to going 4-0 ATS in their last four games.  The Magic have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, so they come in undervalued as only 7-point favorites.

The Magic have gone 26-6 in their last 32 meetings with the 76ers, including 13-2 in their last 15 home meetings.  Orlando won 105-97 on the road as 3-point favorites in their first and only meeting this season.

Orlando is 8-1 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season.  The Magic are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The 76ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 2-22 on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.5 points per game.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -5

Despite their poor 13-27 start, the New Orleans Pelicans are within striking distance of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They certainly are looking at this upcoming 7-game home stand as a chance to get right back in it.

The Pelicans have played the third-toughest schedule in the NBA up to this point.  They have played 23 road games compared to 17 home games.  Now that they are healthy, they are playing much betting.  Each of their last four losses have come by 5 points or less, and they have won two of their last three coming in.

Now they get to take on a Timberwolves team that is 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  This is also a Minnesota team that they have dominated, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with wins by 12, 22, 8, 48 and 7 points, respectively.  The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Minnesota is 1-13 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Timberwolves are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Cavs TNT Monday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be more motivated for a victory Monday than they have been at any other point this season.  That's because they want revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they not only lost to in the NBA Finals, but also who they lost to on the road on Christmas Day in their first meeting this season.

But the Cavaliers have been a completely different team since they've gotten healthy.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the San Antonio Spurs by a final of 99-95.  That's not a bad loss at all considering the Spurs are 24-0 at home this season.

The Warriors have been leaking oil here of late and have proven to be very beatable.  They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have lost two of their last three games, both coming on the road to Denver (110-112) and Detroit (95-113).  Now they have to take on a well-rested Cavaliers team that has had two days off in between games.

The Cavs are 15-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game.  Cleveland is 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Cavs are 8-0 ATS after playing four consecutive road games over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Dallas +12

The San Antonio Spurs are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 23-0 home record on the season.  While they may improve to 24-0, asking them to beat the Mavericks by 12-plus points to cover this spread is asking too much tonight.

The Mavericks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this year.  They are 23-18 SU & 24-17 ATS on the season.  Their starters will essentially be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days after resting against the Thunder five days ago, so they will be well-rested and ready to go.

The Mavs have already proven they can hang with the Spurs on the road this season.  They only lost 83-88 as 10-point road underdogs in their first and only meeting this year.  The Spurs are in a letdown spot here, too, after beating the Cavaliers 99-95 on National TV last time out.

Dallas is 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams who allow 43% shooting or less this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 48-25 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  The Mavs are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Mavs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Mavericks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Boston Celtics are back on track after losing six of seven games during their worst stretch of the season.  But all six losses came by 9 points or less, so they simply didn't get it done in close games.  They have put together back-to-back blowout wins over Indiana (103-94) and Phoenix (117-103) since.

Yes, the Celtics will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, but this is one of my favorite teams to back on short rest because they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  They'll be up against a short-handed Wizards team tonight that is also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

Boston has absolutely owned Washington in two meetings this season.  It won 118-98 back on November 6 and 111-78 on November 27.  I look for more of the same from the Celtics here even though they'll be on the road this time.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 28-11 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Celtics are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games playing on 0 days rest.  Boston is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 games following a win.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday.

15* Cavs/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Houston +1

The Houston Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and looking for a 6th straight victory tonight, which they'll be motivated to get.  The Rockets have also gone 10-2 in their last 12 home games overall.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a very tough spot.  They are coming off a hard-fought 95-99 road loss at San Antonio last night, and now they'll be playing their 6th straight road game.  This second of a back-to-back situation is very tough, and they'll likely suffer a hangover from that defeat to the Spurs last night.

Houston has simply owned Cleveland in recent meetings.  Indeed, it is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in six meetings with the Cavaliers over the last three seasons.  The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home meetings with the Cavaliers.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on 0 days rest.  Roll with the Rockets Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 210

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks.  This game won't come close to reaching 210 combined points Friday.

These teams are used to playing in low-scoring, defensive battle when they get together. Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 189, 183, 175 and 184 combined points.  That's an average of 182.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 210.

The UNDER is 20-7 in Hawks last 27 Friday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -1.5

This is a great spot to back to the Dallas Mavericks and a terrible one to put your money on the Chicago Bulls.  As a result, we'll back the Mavericks in a game that they just need to win to cover with this small 1.5-point spread.

The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go.  They rested their starters in a blowout loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, so they've essentially had two days off in between games to get ready for the Bulls.

Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Making matters worse for the Bulls is that they needed overtime to beat the 76ers last night, and 53 points from Jimmy Butler.  Butler and company will have nothing left in the tank tonight.  The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.

Plays against home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games following a road win.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS after trailing by 15 points or more at the half in its previous game over the last three seasons.  Take the Mavericks Friday.

15* Raptors/Magic Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +4

The Orlando Magic are in desperate need of a victory.  They have lost five of their last six games overall to fall to 20-18 on the season.  This is still one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line to get a victory today against the Toronto Raptors.

I believe getting away for a few days and visiting London will do the Magic a lot of good here to help them get out of this brief funk.  Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors come in overvalued due to having won three straight games.  They won't be as focused as the Magic for this game, and they will enjoy themselves in London because they are playing better coming in.

But the Raptors' three-game winning streak has come against the Nets, Wizards and 76ers, so it's nothing to brag about.  Also, the Raptors are still missing a key starter in DeMarre Carroll, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury.  The Magic are 1-0 against the Raptors this season with a 92-87 home victory as 6-point dogs in their first and only meeting.

Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Plays on any team (ORLANDO) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are desperate for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight and six of thier last seven games overall with all six losses coming by single-digits.  So, they aren't playing poorly, they are simply coming up short in close games.

Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight.  But I believe that favors the Celtics, who are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and are built for these situations.  Plus, this will only be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Celtics, while this will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Pacers.

The home team has won five of the last seven meetings between these teams.  The Pacers are just 9-11 on the road this season, clearly playing their best basketball at home, where they are 13-5.  This will be the Celtics' first home game following a 3-game road trip, so they'll be glad to be back in front of their home fans in Boston.

Boston is 9-1 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days rest.  The Celtics are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games playing on 0 days rest.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +7

The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their win in Brooklyn last night.  They are at a disadvantage here in the rest department against the Pistons, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Pistons have had two days off in between games since last beating the Nets on Saturday.

The Pistons come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Orlando by 26 at home, Brooklyn by 14 at home, and Boston by 5 on the road.  Yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as 7-point home underdogs.

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall to make the betting public a ton of money.  The public is going to continue to back them, and oddsmakers know this, which forces them to shade the line in the Spurs' favor.  That creates artificial line value for us to pounce on the Pistons here.

Detroit is 12-9 SU & 13-8 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with San Antonio.  It has won two of its last three home meetings with San Antonio outright as underdogs.  The Pistons are 13-4 ATS in all home games this season, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game at home.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Pistons are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games dating back to last year.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

25* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics Money Line -103

The Boston Celtics will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season.  They have last three straight and five of their last six coming in, including a blown 20-point lead in a 98-101 loss at Memphis on Sunday.  They are clearly going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

The New York Knicks are playing very well, winners of four of their last five coming in.  But this team is starting to become overvalued, and this recent run has them content with how they are playing at the moment.  They aren't going to want this win as much as the Celtics, and as a result won't be able to match their intensity level.

The Celtics have owned the Knicks, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings with wins by 9, 4, 21 and 11 points.  The road team has actually won four of the last six meetings, too, so home-court advantage has meant very little when these Atlantic Division rivals have gotten together.

Boston is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after having lost 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in.  The Celtics are 13-1 ATS int heir last 14 road games after allowing 100 points or more in two consecutive games coming in.  Boston is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after playing two consecutive road games coming in.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +13.5

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued for a number of reasons.  They own the best record in the league at 35-2, and the betting public has made a killing off of them as they've gone 23-13 ATS.  They are coming off a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS road trip against Western Conference bottom feeders in the Lakers, Blazers and Kings as well.

The Miami Heat are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 22-15 on the season.  They have won four of their last six coming in while going 4-2 ATS in the process.  They are certainly capable of staying within this massive 13.5-point spread, which I believe to be too much tonight.

The Heat are coming off a poor performance in an 83-98 loss at Utah on Saturday, and that result has them undervalued as well.  I would be shocked if it wasn't due to them looking ahead to this game against the Warriors.  Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and company are all relishing the opportunity to go at the defending champs tonight and will bring max effort as a result.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 207.5

A lot is being made of the Bulls scoring at least 100 points in 10 consecutive games.  As a result, their totals are going to be inflated in the near future, including tonight against the Wizards.  I believe the value is now with the UNDER 207.5 tonight.

The Wizards haven't exactly been offensive juggernauts here of late with all of the injuries they are dealing with, including the one to star SG Bradley Beal, who remains out.  The Wizards have scored 91 or fewer points in four of their last seven games.  But they have been playing good defense, limiting eight of their last 10 opponents to 99 or fewer points.

The recent history between these teams justifies this play on the UNDER 207.5.  They have combined for 204 or fewer points in 25 consecutive meetings! That's a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set.  They have averaged 183.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is 24 points less than this total.  Enough said.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/76ers OVER 203.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have become the offensive juggernaut that most thought they'd be when having Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and Lebron James healthy at the same time.  They have simply been rolling since Irving returned from injury a few games back.

Indeed, the Cavaliers have scored 104, 122, 121 and 125 points in their last four games, respectively.  That's an average of 118.0 points per game.  I expect them to flirt with that average again today against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers have been trying to play at a faster tempo this season, especially since hiring Mike D'Antoni.  They rank 5th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game this season.  The results have been better on offense, but their defense has been atrocious as they've allowed 104-plus points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They have given up 108, 126 and 130 points in three of their last four.

The OVER is 11-3 in Cavaliers last 14 games when playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 12-4 in 76ers 16 home games this season.  The OVER is 8-0 in 76ers last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in 76ers last 11 games following a loss overall.  The OVER is 20-7 in 76ers last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are primed for a big performance today.  They have lost two straight and four of their last five coming in, so they're motivated for a victory.  Plus, they have had two days off in between games having last played on Thursday, so they are well-rested and ready to go.

The Celtics are now at full strength as PG Avery Bradley is expected to return from a hip injury.  The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who are expected to be without their starting backcourt in PG Mike Conley and SG Courtney Lee.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 94-54 (63.5%) ATS since 1996.

Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  The Grizzlies are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

I successfully backed the Orlando Magic in an 83-77 win at Brooklyn last night as 4-point favorites, and I'm backing them again tonight for many of the same reasons.  This team is motivated following a 4-game losing streak, and they are undervalued due to that streak as well.

Adding to the Magic's motivation tonight is the fact that they are 0-3 against Washington in three meetings this season.  They lost by 12 and 9 on the road, and by just 1 at home.  They will be hungry to avoid the season sweep, and I like their chances of getting a victory here with the way the Wizards are playing right now.

Indeed, Washington is 1-5 in its last six games overall.  That includes a 19-point home loss to the Clippers and a 22-point home loss to the Heat.  The Wizards are still playing without star SG Bradley Beal, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  Their injury list remains long, and they aren't playing up to their potential as a result.  They lost 97-88 at home to the Raptors last night, so they are playing the second of a back-to-back as well, which hurts them more because they are short-handed, while the Magic are a deep team.

The Wizards are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 0 days' rest, while the Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Orlando is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone a league-best 26-11 ATS in all games this season, and their 21-0 SU & 16-5 ATS home mark has the betting public all over them.  The Spurs have covered 12 of their last 14 games ATS as well.

The New York Knicks continue getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight despite playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They've gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are 2-2 straight up in their last four meetings with the Spurs, not once losing by more than 14 points.

Their recent run includes a 12-point home win over Detroit as 1.5-point dogs, a 14-point home win over Atlanta as 4.5-point dogs, a 6-point road win over Atlanta as 7.5-point dogs, and an 8-point road win at Miami as 7.5-point dogs.  This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and feeling like it can compete with San Antonio.

New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent this season.  The Knicks are 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - good defensive team - allowing 91 or fewer points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 36-14 (72%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

15* Cavs/T'Wolves ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 196

With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the explosive offensive team that we all thought they'd be.  They have scored 104, 122 and 121 points in their last three games overall for an average of 115.7 points per game.

Look for the Cavs to put up another big number against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight to mostly take care of this OVER by themselves.  The T'Wolves have allowed 101 or more points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.

The last three meetings between the Cavs and T'Wolves have all seen at least 196 combined points.  They have combined for 196, 229 and 219 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 214.7 points per game, which is roughly 19 points more than this 196-point total.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after scoring 80 points or less are 36-11 (76.6%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4.5

The Orlando Magic are extremely motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road.  Look for them to give max effort to try and end this skid, and for it to be enough to beat the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are in a world of hurt right now.  They have gone just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall, and the injuries are starting to pile up.  They just lost starting PG Jarrett Jack to a season-ending ACL injury.  They have proceeded to get blown out 94-103 by Boston and 74-91 to Toronto, both at home, in their two games without him.

The Magic have owned the Nets in two meetings this season.  They won 105-82 on the road and 100-93 at home.  The Magic have been a solid road team this season as they've gone 10-6-1 ATS in their 17 road games.

Orlando is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of its last 7 games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 31-17 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two years.  The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* Celtics/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Boston +6.5

The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in.  They were outscored in the fourth quarter by 14 points by the Pistons last night to lost 94-99, and now they'll certainly come back playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

The Chicago Bulls come into this game overvalued because they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, four of which have come at home.  It's  now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points to the Celtics tonight.

Boston has been better on the road than it has been at home.  It is 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS in road games this season, outscoring teams 103.1 to 99.1 on average.  In fact, the Celtics are 7-2 SU in their last nine road games with their only losses coming to the Piston (by 3) and Spurs (by 3).  So they haven't lost by more than 3 points in any of their last nine road games.

The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  The Celtics are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games playing on 0 days rest.  Boston is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 road games.  The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 202

This is a battle between two bad teams in the Denver Nuggets (12-23) and Minnesota Timberwolves (12-23) with identical awful records.  Look for defense to be optional tonight as this game sails way OVER this 202-point total set.

That's usually the case when these teams get together, anyways.  The first two meetings this season have seen 212 and 219 combined points, respectively.  Dating back further, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen 205 or more combined points.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Minnesota.

The Nuggets have been playing in a ton of high-scoring games here of late.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games with combined scores of 213, 219 and 218 points.  Now they are expected to get rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay back in the lineup tonight and will be even more potent on the offensive end.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - cold team - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games are 39-17 (69.6%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last five vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Hawks UNDER 203

The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks are very familiar with one another to say the least.  In fact, this will be the 2nd time in 3 days that they square off, and their 4th and final meeting of the season.  This familiarity will lead to a low-scoring game tonight as both teams know each other's tendencies by now.

The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 23rd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.  The Knicks also rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 10th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

Atlanta is 12-3 to the UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 50-22 (69.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Warriors UNDER 208

The books have set the bar too high with this total set tonight between the Charlotte Hornets and Golden State Warriors.  The injuries for both of these teams are really piling up now, which will help contribute to the UNDER.

Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Spencer Hawes are all questionable for the Hornets, while Al Jefferson remains out.  Harrison Barnes and Brandon Rush are both banged up but expected to play for the Warriors.  Stephen Curry is questionable, while Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa and James Michael McAdoo are all expected to miss tonight.

These are two solid defensive teams as the Warriors rank 4th in defensive efficiency, while the Hornets rank 11th.  Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 207 or fewer combined points.  We're seeing an average of 196.8 combined points per game in those four meetings, which is 11 points less than this posted total of 208.

Charlotte is 19-8 UNDER vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Hornets last 21 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 17-6 in Hornets last 23 Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +2.5

I will gladly fade the Miami Heat in this tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They were in Washington last night, and now they have to return home to Miami tonight.

The Pacers are the better team here and should not be underdogs given the rest situation with them having yesterday off.  They have lost five of their last eight games overall, but three of those losses came by 4 points or less.

Indiana clearly matches up well with Miami.  It is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Heat with its only loss coming by exactly 2 points.  The Heat are 3-16 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.

Indiana is 7-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS versus teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game this year.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Heat are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.   Take the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Knicks UNDER 202.5

I'm backing the UNDER in this game between the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks today.  I like UNDERS in early Sunday NBA games, and this one really stands out as having some value with a total set of over 200 points.

For starters, the Knicks will be controlling the tempo as they are playing at home, and they prefer a slow pace.  Indeed, the Knicks rank 23rd in the NBA in pace at 96.4 possessions per game.  The Knicks also struggle on the offensive end as they rank 24th in offensive efficiency.

New York is 18-8 UNDER when the total is 200 or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in New York.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing solid value today as small favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are undervalued because they have lost five of their last six games coming in.

But they have also played a very tough stretch of games having played San Antonio twice, Indiana, Boston on the road and Detroit on the road.  They did beat the Jazz at home 94-80 two games back, and the schedule lightens up tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks simply are not very good this season.  They are 13-21 on the year, and they have been awful on the road.  They are just 4-15 in road games this season, getting outscored by 10.7 points per game.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers as a result.

Milwaukee is 16-42 ATS in its last 58 games off an upset win as an underdog against a division opponent.  The Bucks are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

This is an awful spot for the Los Angeles Clippers.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days and are running on fumes right now.  They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Pelicans.

That's especially the case since they're already short-handed without arguably their best player in Blake Griffin.  They won 122-117 in Charlotte last night in a fast-paced game.  On tired legs tonight, I look for Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and company to really struggle tonight on the offensive end, and to have little effort left to give on defensive.

The Pelicans have been playing better since head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their last of effort.  They have won three of their last five games since that occurred with one of their losses coming on the road at Miami in overtime.

The Pelicans have won four of their last five home games, including an upset win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Clippers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 visits to New Orleans.  Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +10

The Philadelphia 76ers have been much more competitive here of late, and I look for that to continue as they give the Sacramento Kings a run for their money tonight and stay within single-digits.

The 76ers have covered their last two against the spread.  They won outright at Phoenix 111-104 as 11.5-point underdogs, and then came back with a 91-95 loss at Utah as 8-point dogs.  The 76ers are finally getting healthy as Jahlil Okafor is expected to play tonight.  They don't have anyone else listed on the injury report aside from Joel Embid, who is out for the season with a foot injury.

The Kings shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone.  They have lost three of their last four with their only win coming by two points.  They could be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight as he faced a possible suspension.  That would only be an added bonus.  They are already without Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Kosta Koufos as well.

The 76ers played the Kings very tough last year, winning 114-107 at home as 4.5-point dogs, and only losing 106-107 on the road as 8.5-point dogs. Philadelphia is now 13-3 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Sacramento, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road meetings.

Sacramento is 12-23 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The 76ers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 11-29-2 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2

I'll gladly fade the Utah Jazz, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now.  They are without two starters in Alec Burks and Rudy Gobert.  They could also be without a 3rd starter tonight in Derrick Favors, who missed their lackluster 95-91 home win over the 76ers last time out.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for a win tonight after losing four straight coming in.  But those four losses came to the Celtics, Pacers and Spurs (twice), and they even hung with the Spurs in a 95-101 road loss as 13.5-point dogs last time out.  Look for the Timberwolves to get back in the win column tonight now that they take a step down in competition.

The Jazz are 5-9 on the road this season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers given the state of their team health-wise.  The Timberwolves are basically at full strength heading into this one, which will be a huge advantage.  They should dominate in the paint with Gobert and possibly Favors out for the Jazz.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Knicks UNDER 200

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks.  There are several reasons to love the UNDER in this one, not the least of which is the fact that this is the second-highest total set in the last 14 meetings between these teams.  They are used to playing low-scoring games when they get together.

Indeed, 9 of the last 10 meetings between the Knicks and Pistons have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Only once did they reach 200 points, and that was a 202-point effort in the final meeting last year when neither team had anything to play for in mid-April.  They have combined for an average of just 182.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

Both teams prefer to play at a slow tempo as the Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game while the Pistons are 18th (98.0).  Both teams also struggle offensively as the Knicks rank 24th in offensive efficiency while the Pistons are 23rd.  The Pistons are 10th in defensive efficiency while the Knicks are 16th.

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 16-4 in Pistons last 20 road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last four games following an ATS loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight.  We'll gladly take advantage and back the Bulls as they pretty much just have to win this game to cover the spread.

The Bulls are a solid 11-5 at home this season.  But they come in undervalued due to having lost four of their last five games, including two by exactly 3 points.  But they did beat the Thunder 105-96 on the road on Christmas Day to show their potential, and I believe they'll live up to their potential tonight as they'll be motivated to turn this recent poor run around.

What you have to like about this game is that Chicago has owned Toronto.  The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  The last two have resulted in double-digit wins in favor of the Bulls with a 13-point road win and a 16-point home win.

Toronto is 5-17 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have started to turn their season around now that they are finally healthy.  They have won three of their last four games overall with home wins over the Blazers (by 26) and Rockets, as well as a road win at Denver.

The only loss by the Pelicans during this 4-game stretch came at Miami by a final of 88-94 in overtime.  So, they have either won or forced overtime in each of their last four games.  I think we're getting some good value with them at +4.5 here against Eastern Conference foe, Orlando.

The Magic come into this game overvalued due to sinning five of their last seven games overall.  But their two losses came against the two best teams they played in Atlanta and Miami, both at home.  Their five wins came against the Nets, Hornets, Blazers, Knicks and Rockets.

Orlando is 9-20 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 road games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points.  The Pelicans are 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Orlando.  The underdog is 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -2

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game way overvalued because they have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But those six wins came against the 76ers, Celtics, Magic, Blazers, Pistons and Knicks.  Now they take a step up in competition tonight.

At the same time, the Pacers come in undervalued due to going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost on the road to Memphis and San Antonio, while also falling at home to Sacramento by 2.  They bounced back with a 102-88 win at Minnesota on Saturday, though.

The Pacers are 10-4 at home this season.  They are outscoring teams by 6.6 points per game at home this year.  The Hawks are 8-6 on the road, but they're getting outscored by 0.7 points per game away from home.

Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after having lost 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS against teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 201.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics.  I look for a defensive battle between these two teams as neither gets to 100 points in this one, paving the way for an easy UNDER winner.

The biggest reason for the Celtics' turnaround this season has been defense.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Knicks are improved in this area as well as they rank 16th in defensive efficiency.

The Knicks are improved on offense this season, but only marginally as they still rank a woeful 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Celtics have only been slightly better, ranking 21st at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game, so this one should be played at a slow pace.

I also think that it will be played at a slow pace for the simple fact that both teams played on Saturday, so they are both going to be tired playing this second of a back-to-back.  I think that hurts the offense more than the defense, which has proven to be the case over time.  Neither team is going to be looking to fast break with regularity.

New York is 30-15 UNDER versus teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Boston is 21-9 UNDER after covering three of its last four games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Knicks last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Knicks last 10 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings, including 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Boston.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

Both the Rockets and Pelicans played on Christmas Day.  The difference is that the Pelicans have had more time to recover since they played the 12:00 EST game, while the Rockets played the second-to-last game last night.  The Pelicans will be the more rested team as a result.

I also believe the Pelicans will be the more motivated team.  They let one get away from them yesterday, losing in overtime to the Heat.  The Rockets are in a massive letdown spot here after beating the Spurs at home.  The Pelicans will want this one more because they are the ones coming off a loss.

The Pelicans haave played the Rockets tough in recent meetings in winning three of the last six.  All three of their losses came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road.  The Pelicans lost 101-108 at Houston in their first meeting this season in early December, so they'll be out for revenge as well.

The Pelicans are 6-6 at home this year while the Rockets are just 6-8 on the road.  Houston is 4-12 ATS off a home game this season.  New Orleans is 25-14 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

25* NBA Pre-New Year's GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +7

The Cleveland Cavaliers want serious revenge on the Golden State Warriors.  They led the NBA Finals 2-1 last year, only to lose three straight and to fall short of a championship.  The only difference this time around is that the Cavaliers are healthy, which is a huge difference.

Back in 2011, Lebron James and the Miami Heat played the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas.  Coming off a Finals loss to Dirk Nowitzki & Co. Miami routed Dallas, leading by 32 points after three quarters.  I fully expect the Cavaliers to want this game more and to likely come away with an outright victory.

The Cavs come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won six straight games with three coming by double-digits, including both of their road wins over Boston (89-77) and Orlando (111-76) during this stretch.  Kyrie Irving returned to the lineup two games ago and should be up to game speed now in time for face the Warriors.

Remember, the Cavs didn't have Irving or Kevin Love against the Warriors in the NBA Finals, which are two of their three best players.  While James and company are downplaying the significance of this game to the media coming in, there's no question that deep down inside they want to kill the Warriors.  That will show on the court Friday.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Bulls/Thunder Christmas Day No-Brainer on UNDER 205.5

This Christmas Day matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder features two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Bulls rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder rank 6th, giving up 98.8 points per 100 possessions.

The Bulls will be playing with extra determination in this game because they are coming off three straight losses and really need a win.  The last time they lost three straight this season, they came back with an 83-80 home win over the Clippers in a low-scoring, defensive battle that saw 163 combined points.

The Bulls have struggled to find easy baskets this season under Fred Hoiberg as they rank just 27th in offensive efficiency at 98.4 points per 100 possessions.  Things won't get any easier for them on that end against a Thunder team that has allowed 99 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook get all the hype, but it's OKC's effort on the defensive end that makes them so good.

The UNDER in Christmas Day games is 27-13-1 (67.5%) since 2005.  While I do like some other UNDERS, this is my favorite of the bunch.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Bulls last 21 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.   The UNDER is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Thunder's last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in OKC's last nine when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in OKC's last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  These last four trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Pelicans/Heat XMas Day Early ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +6

I've backed the Pelicans with success in each of their last two games and I'll continue riding them on Christmas Day as 6-point underdogs to the Miami Heat.  Head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their lack of effort three games ago in a loss to the Suns, and they've responded very well.

Indeed, the Pelicans went on the road in their first game after the loss to the Suns and beat the Nuggets 130-125 as 1-point underdogs.  In their second game since Gentry called out his players, the Pelicans rolled to a 115-89 home win over the Blazers as 7.5-point favorites.  Now I fully expect them to win this game outright against the Heat.

The Pelicans have had the Heat's number in recent meetings.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with home wins by 10 and 2 points, and a blowout 14-point road win.  I believe Anthony Davis' domination of Hassan Whiteside inside will be the difference in this game.  Davis is a tough matchup for Whiteside because he can hit 3-pointers, so Whiteside is forced away from the rim, making it much easier for other players to get uncontested layups.

The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams with winning records.  The Heat are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Hawks UNDER 202.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons.  I look for a low-scoring battle with neither team topping 100 points in this one folks.

These two teams both prefer to play at slower paces.  The Pistons rank 21st in pace while the Hawks rank 15th.  Both teams are above-average defensively as the Pistons rank 11th in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks check in at 13th.  The Pistons are only 24th in offensive efficiency this season.
 
Detroit shot 15-of-29 from 3-point range last night at Miami, yet it still only won 93-92 for 185 combined points.  It has not played well offensively in second of back-to-back road games.  The Pistons are averaging 88.0 points on 39.9 percent shooting in losing all three of their second half of back-to-backs played on the road.

You also have to like the UNDER in this game based off the recent history in this series.  Five of the last six meetings between the Pistons and Hawks have seen 200 or fewer combined points.  They're averaging 194.8 combined points in their last six meetings, which is roughly eight points less than this 202.5-point total.

Atlanta is 16-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Detroit is 16-3 UNDER in road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last two years.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8

I was on the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, a 130-125 win at Denver as 1-point underdogs.  I stated that head coach Alvin Gentry had called out his players for their lack of effort following a loss to the Suns, and that they'd come back with a great effort against the Nuggets.

That proved to be the case as Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points, including 19 in the first quarter, despite playing through an illness that required four IV treatments prior to the game.  It was a gutsy performance from him, and I believe the Pelicans will rally around him now and come back with another great effort against the Blazers tonight.

Portland has lost its first four games on this 5-game road trip.  It is getting outscored by 10.0 points per game while giving up 107.5 points on 49.8 percent shooting defensively.  Now the Blazers are expected to be without their two best players in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  They stand no chance of keeping this game close considering that duo is responsible for 42.6 percent of Portland's scoring this season.

The Pelicans want revenge from two losses at Portland already this season, including a 101-105 loss on December 14 just nine days ago.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings, and 12 of the last 14 meetings overall.

Portland is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 11-25 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Cavs NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 197

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring affair whether or not Carmelo Anthony plays for the Knicks.  He is currently questionable with an ankle injury.

The Knicks rank just 21st in offensive efficiency this season.  Things won't get any easier against a Cleveland team that ranks 6th in defensive efficiency.  The Knicks are solid in this category as well as they are 16th in defensive efficiency.

One thing is almost certain, and that is the fact that this game is going to be played at a snail's pace.  The Cavs rank 28th in the league in pace at 95.6 possessions per game, while the Knicks are 23rd at 96.9 possessions per game.  A snail's pace has indeed been the trend when these teams have gotten together recently.

In fact, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 174, 182, 184, 177 and 185 points.  That's an average of 180.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Knicks last 13 games following a straight up loss.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavs last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Cavs last 28 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/76ers UNDER 195

I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, and that will be on full display tonight.

The 76ers rank 30th in offensive efficiency, while the Grizzlies are 26th.  Not only are they both inefficient, but this game is sure to be played at a pretty slow pace as well.  The Grizzlies rank 24th in the NBA in pace at 96.6 possessions per game.

The 76ers try to play faster, but they aren't equipped to do it, which is why they are so inefficient.  The 76ers have scored 97 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games overall and put up just 91.2 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies have been held to 99 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games overall.

Both meetings last season between these teams were very low-scoring.  They combined for 176 and 184 points in their last two meetings.  That's an average of 180 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than this 195-point total.

The UNDER is 13-5 in Grizzlies last 18 road games.  The UNDER is 33-13-1 in Grizzlies last 47 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Grizzlies last eight games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4

The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now because of their recent results.  They have lost four of their last five games, but two of those came to Oklahoma City and another to San Antonio.  They lost to OKC by 4 and 6 points with one going into OT.  They did get back on track Friday with a 97-88 home win over the Nuggets, though.

Now the Jazz have had two days off since that game and will be well-rested and ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Phoenix Suns, who lost 95-101 at home to the Milwaukee Bucks Sunday.  Now the Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They won't be able to match the Jazz's energy or intensity level in this one as a result.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The Jazz have won their last two home meetings with the Suns by 27 and 25 points.  They've won five of their last six home meetings with the Suns.  Phoenix has dropped 10 of 14 road games this season and 25 of 33 dating back to January.

The Jazz are 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Utah is 33-16 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

After going 45-37 last year, the New Orleans Pelicans had high hopes of being among the Western Conference's best teams this season.  Instead, injuries derailed them early, and despite the fact that they are now healthy, they continue to be inconsistent.  They are just 7-19 this year.

Things came to a boiling point in their loss to Phoenix on Friday, and first-year head coach Alvin Gentry called out his team.   ''Terrible, terrible, bad effort,'' Gentry said after a 104-88 loss to the Suns. ''Not playing hard, not giving a damn, that's the way I want to sum it up. We didn't play with effort. We didn't play together as a team, so nothing worked. Nothing, nothing.''

"We played terrible," start center Anthony Davis said. "We weren't competing and we didn't play hard. They just did whatever they wanted and we acted like we didn't want to be here."

After voicing their frustrations through the media and amongst each other, I fully expect the Pelicans to put forth their best effort of the season Sunday against the Denver Nuggets.  This is a team that they can and should beat with the talent they have, and with a little more effort here, I expect them to roll to victory.

The Nuggets come in overvalued after winning five of their last seven games, but four of those wins came by 6 points or less and by a combined 12 points.  They have beaten the Raptors, 76ers, Rockets & Timberwolves (twice) during this stretch.  They also lost by 11 to Orlando and by 9 to Utah.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won four straight meetings.  The Pelicans also want revenge from their 98-115 home loss to the Nuggets in their first meeting this season on November 17.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  The Nuggets are 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks +3

The Chicago Bulls are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing in a 4-overtime, 144-147 home loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to New York to face the Knicks Saturday night with a 7:35 EST tip.

Fred Hoiberg played the same five guys for almost the entire four overtimes.  As a result, Jimmy Butler played 56 minutes, Derrick Rose played 54, Pau Gasol play 48, Taj Gibson played 44 and Tony Snell played 38.  It's safe to say that none of these players are going to have anything left in the tank Saturday.

New York will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 107-97 win at Philadelphia Friday.  But this game was decided by the start of the 4th quarter as the Knicks led by 21.  As a result, key starters played small minutes. Carmelo Anthony (28) had the most minutes of anyone, while Arron Afflalo (26), Jose Calderon (24) Kristaps Porzingis (26) and Robin Lopez (16) all had ample rest as well.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between New York and Chicago.  Indeed, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Saturday games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Bulls, who are simply running on fumes right now.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat come in playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games with a 3-point home win over Memphis, a 12-point road win at Atlanta and a 6-point road win at Brooklyn.

The Heat have done an excellent job of protecting their home court this year as they are 11-4 in home games.  The Raptors are also playing well, winning four of their last six, but all four victories have come at home during this stretch.

The Raptors have lost two straight road games coming in with a 16-point loss at Indiana and a 10-point loss in overtime at Charlotte last night.  The Raptors will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that OT game, plus its their 4th game in 6 days.  This team is short-handed as it is right now as they are missing two starters in center Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings.  Miami has gone 17-2 SU in its last 19 meetings with Toronto with all 17 wins coming by 3 points or more.  In fact, a whopping 16 of those wins came by 5 points or more.  Miami has also won 11 of its last 12 home meetings with Toronto.  Take the Heat Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value tonight as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They are playing great coming in, and the home team has dominated this series between these two teams as well.

The Bulls have won four straight games coming in with victories over the Clippers, Pelicans, 76ers and Grizzlies.  The last two have come via blowout by 19 and 13 points.  Look for them to continue their solid play tonight against the Pistons and improve upon their 11-3 home record.

The Pistons are also playing well, having won three of their last four.  But two of those wins came at home, and the one road victory was against the lowly 76ers.  The Pistons are just 5-8 SU & 5-8 ATS in road games this season, scoring 95.3 points per game and shooting 40.9% away from home.  Things won't get any easier against the Bulls, who allow 93.8 points on 40.8% shooting at home.

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Bulls have won their last three home meetings with the Pistons by 6, 11 and 8 points, respectively.

Chicago lost 94-98 in overtime at Detroit in their first and only meeting this season.  That plays right into the Bulls' hands considering they are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 games revenging a loss.  The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* Thunder/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 205

Look for a defensive battle tonight in this high-profile game between Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers against Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This contest will be nationally televised on TNT tonight, which means the defense from both teams will be turned up a notch.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA as the Cavs rank 8th in defensive efficiency, while the Thunder rank 10th.  Both teams have really been locking in defensively here of late.

The Thunder have allowed 98 or fewer points in seven straight games, and 99 or less in 10 of their last 11.  To no surprise, the UNDER is 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  The Cavs have allowed 100 or less in seven of their last eight games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in their last eight contests.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these teams.  Cleveland is 11-2 to the UNDER after allowing 90 points or less in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 11-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Thunder are 11-0 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this season.  OKC is 8-0 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game this season.  These last three trends combine for a 30-0 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Hawks UNDER 199.5

Both of these teams have been profitable UNDER bets this season.  The Hawks are 16-10 to the UNDER, while the 76ers are 14-12 to the UNDER.  The UNDER is 9-5 in Hawks' 14 home games, while the UNDER is 10-5 in 76ers' 15 road games.

The Hawks have taken a big step back offensively this season, while the 76ers rank 30th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 91.4 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta plays at the 19th-fastest pace in the NBA this season and will control the tempo playing at home.

The recent head-to-head history tells the story in this one.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings, and we've seen 198 or fewer combined points in all five.  We've seen 176, 176, 192, 174 and 198 combined points in the last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 199.5.

Atlanta is 7-0 to the UNDER after two straight games where opponent was called for 18 or less fouls this season.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 90-37 (70.9%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Hawks last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are simply catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Asking the Thunder to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  You have to go all the way back to November 30 to find the last time they lost a game by more than 5 points, which is a span of eight games since.  They have won road games at Minnesota and Phoenix during this span, with a 2-point loss to the Bucks and a 5-point loss to the Cavs as well.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season as they are just 9-14 ATS.  They have won five in a row, but only two of their last seven games have they won by double-digits.  The Blazers actually won three of four meetings with the Thunder last year.

In fact, the Blazers have lost by double-digits to the Thunder just once in the last eight meetings.  They have won five of those meetings outright.  The Thunder are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 2 days rest.  Oklahoma City is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Nets UNDER 191.5

The Miami Heat have been the best UNDER bet in the NBA this season.  They have gone 18-5 to the UNDER in their 23 games this year.  The Nets haven't been too shabby themselves, going 15-9 to the UNDER in their 24 games.

The Heat rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.5 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Spurs have been better.  Both teams have struggled on the other end of the floor.  The Nets rank 29th in offensive efficiency, while the Heat rank 18th.  The Heat rank 26th in pace with the Nets checking in at 15th.

This has been a very low-scoring series as four of the last five meetings have seen 190 or fewer combined points.  They've combined for 202, 172, 186, 178 and 190 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 185.6 combined points per game, which is roughly six points less than this posted total of 191.5.

The UNDER is 36-15 in Heat's last 51 road games, including a perfect 8-0 this season.  The Heat and they're opponents are combining for an average of just 182.2 points per game on the road this year.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Magic UNDER 198

The Charlotte Hornets and Orland Magic are two of the most improved defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Hornets rank 6th in defensive efficiency, while the Magic check in at 7th in the first year under head coach Scott Skiles, who has always been a defensive guy.

While the Hornets have been solid offensively this year, the Magic check in at 21st in offensive efficiency.  Both teams like to play at slow paces, too.  The Hornets are 17th in pace while the Magic are 18th.  Look for an ugly, defensive battle tonight when these two teams get together.

That has been the case in recent meetings.  The Hornets and Magic have combined for 181, 188 and 196 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 188.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than this posted total of 198.

The UNDER is 12-2-2 in Hornets last 16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 19-7-1 in Hornets last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Magic's last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Nets last four vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Celtics NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers after getting swept in four games in the playoffs last year.  They did play the Cavs tough in the final three games of that series, losing all three games by exactly 8 points.  Now the Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and fully capable of pulling off the upset.

The Celtics are 14-10 on the season, outscoring teams by an average of 5.0 points per game.  The improvement they've made this year is due to their defense.  The Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

While the Cavaliers are 10-1 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Cavs are 5-6 straight up and 4-7 ATS in road games this season.  Lebron James, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova are on on the injury report right now with various injuries, though all three are expected to play.  Kyrie Irving remains on the shelf.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Celtics are 38-22 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

Having lost two straight games to Atlanta and Washington by a combined 6 points, the Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a win today to avoid going 0-3 on this 3-game home stand.  They had gone on the road and beaten Washington and New York in their previous two games.

The Mavericks are not only going to be the more motivated team, they are going to be the fresher one as well.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They have won their last two meetings with the Suns, including a 111-95 road win in their only meeting this season on October 28.

The Suns are in a much tougher spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 108-101 home win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  The Suns will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days and their 9th game in 14 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  I don't expect the Suns to be able to match the Mavericks' energy level tonight.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 69-32 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are hungry for a victory after losing two straight to Phoenix and Cleveland coming in to fall to 12-11 on the season.  They have now had two days off since that loss to the Cavaliers on Friday to fix their problems, and I look for them to come back with a great effort tonight against the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Magic are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  First-year head coach Scott Skiles has his players buying in to playing defense, and it is showing in the early going.  The Magic rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season at 7-16.  They rank 20th in defensive efficiency, giving up 103.2 points per 100 possessions.  They are 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  They are getting outscored by 5.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Magic are outscoring teams by 0.1 points per 100 possessions.

Orlando is 11-2 ATS off two straight games being called for 5-plus more fouls than its opponent over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Suns UNDER 211.5

Defensive anchor Tyson Chandler is expected to return to the lineup today for the Phoenix Suns.  He has missed the past eight games due to injury.  Alex Len has played well in his place, averaging 15.0 points and 8.8 boards over his last four games.  But having Chandler back makes Phoenix a much better defensive team.

I believe this total has been inflated because Minnesota has gone over the total in four straight games.  But the last two have gone to overtime.  The Timberwolves were tied 100-100 with the Nuggets at the end of regulation in their last game before losing 108-111, going over the 202-point total.

The last five meetings in Phoenix between these teams have all gone UNDER this 211.5-point total as they've combined for 203, 209, 211, 203 and 167 points in those five.  That's an average of 198.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than this 211.5-point total.

Minnesota is 17-4 UNDER after a road games where both teams score 100 points or more over the last two seasons. Phoenix is 27-12 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Bucks UNDER 207

Both the Warriors and Bucks will be fatigued tonight after playing Friday as this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back for both teams.  That's especially the case for the Warriors, who played a double-overtime thriller against the Celtics last night.  Neither team will be looking to push the pace in this one as that fatigue affects their offense more than their defense.

Things will be very tough for the Bucks, who rank 22nd in the league in offensive efficiency.  The Warriors rank 5th in the league in defensive efficiency.  Milwaukee will control the pace tonight playing at home and will slow it down to a snail's pace.  The Bucks rank 29th in the NBA in pace, averaging 95.3 possessions per game.

The Bucks have scored 95 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They have been pretty good defensively, though, giving up 95 or fewer points in six of their last eight games overall.  The two meetings between these teams last year saw 195 and 203 combined points.

Golden State is 30-16 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Bucks last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 13-4 in Bucks last 17 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Hornets UNDER 203

Both of these teams played last night and will be fatigued tonight.  Especially the Celtics, who went to double-overtime against the Warriors.  That fatigue will show up more on the offensive end as neither team looks to push the pace often, and both will struggle shooting the ball as well.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the conference.  Boston ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Charlotte ranked 6th in efficiency.  Boston allows 43.3% shooting this year while Charlotte allows 43.8% shooting.

Boston is 10-0 UNDER in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Charlotte is 28-12 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last three years.  The UNDER is 12-3-2 in Hornets last 17 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Charlotte.   Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are off to a 5-16 start this season.  This start has been largely due to injuries to several key players, but the Pelicans are now finally healthy.  The only player on the injury report not expected to play is Quincy Pondexter.

Look for the Pelicans to be a good bet going forward after this poor start.  They have had three days in between games having last played on Monday.  They have had time to work out their problems in practice these last three days, and I look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight at home against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards are not healthy, and they are off to a poor start as well.  They are just 9-11 on the season and have lost seven of their last 10 games overall coming in.  They are without two key post players in Drew Gooden and Nene, and Kris Humphries is questionable with an ankle injury.

Plays on home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in Friday night home games over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 11.0 points per game.  The Wizards are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.