20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing awesome value as just a small home favorite tonight over the San Antonio Spurs. This is a very generous line to back one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.

Philly is 18-7 SU & 18-7 ATS in all games this season. That includes a 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS mark in home games. The 76ers are outscoring opponents 95.7 to 82.9 at home this season, or by an average of 12.8 points/game. They are the best defensive team in the league, allowing a mere 86.6 points/game in all games.

San Antonio is overrated due to their recent 5-game winning streak. This is a team that has done most of their damage at home, and little damage on the road. The Spurs are 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 5.0 points/game. They are giving up a whopping 98.3 points/game away from home.

The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game. Philly is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with San Antonio. These three trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing Philly. Plus, the home team has won eight straight meetings, and the 76ers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings with the Spurs. Bet Philadelphia Wednesday.

20* Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Bobcats +14

Because the Charlotte Bobcats are off to such a poor start, this team is going to show great value over the next few weeks. The Bobcats are clearly struggling this year, but the value is there to pull the trigger tonight. Boston should not be this heavily favored.

The Celtics have not been a consistent team this season. They cannot be expected to blow the Bobcats out tonight. The Celtics are 13-10 on the year with very few wins by this margin. With the Lakers coming up next, I'm expecting the Celtics to look ahead to that rivalry, which is the most storied in the NBA.

Looking ahead when facing the Bobcats became a regular occurrence last season. Charlotte actually went 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three meetings with the Celtics last year. They won outright as a 13-point dog and as a 4.5 point dog, while also losing by 5 as an 8-point dog. Two of those three games were in Boston.

This play falls into a system that is 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, in February games. Boston is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Pacers UNDER 193.5

The Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This line opened at 189 and has been bet all the way to 193.5 as the public is on the OVER. This provides us with ample value to pull the trigger on the UNDER. Looking at season averages alone, this is a no-brainer.

Utah is scoring 96.9 points/game and giving up 96.9 points/game for an average combined score of 193.8 points/game. Sure, that number is basically right at tonight's posted total, but looking at Indiana's numbers tells the story.

The Pacers are scoring 94.0 points/game and giving up 90.7 points/game for an averaged combined score of 184.7 points/game. Those numbers drop to 93.9 and 87.5 for an average of 181.4 points/game in Indiana home games. The Pacers will control the tempo at home tonight and I expect a final to come in the low 180's.

Indiana is 11-1 to the UNDER in their last 12 home games where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points. I'm seeing an average combined score of 183.7 points/game in this spot. The UNDER is 6-1 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 10-4 in Jazz last 14 road games. The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Pacers last 11 home games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +2

The Portland Trail Blazers should not be an underdog an home to the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday. I'll take advantage of this line mistake by backing Portland to win and cover in this one as they continue playing superb basketball at home.

The Blazers are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in 12 home games this season. They scoring 105.7 points and allowing 89.2 points while outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 16.5 points/game. Oklahoma City is one of the top teams in the west, but four of their five losses have come on the road.

The Blazers are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 home games. Portland is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with Oklahoma City. The Blazers are 74-47 ATS in their last 121 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Take the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando +6

The Orlando Magic are back on track and on a mission. The Indiana Pacers are getting way too much respect for their win at Dallas last night. These two factors coupled together provide us with excellent value on the Magic Saturday.

Indiana is 4-16 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the Magic Saturday.

20* Knicks/Celtics NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +7

The New York Knicks are showing awesome value Friday as a big road underdog to the Boston Celtics. Boston is getting a lot of love because of their recent play. But the fact of the matter is that the Celtics have had to win six of their last seven just to get to 11-10 on the season. This is still a mediocre team at best.

The Knicks are off to a slow start, but that's why they are showing so much value here. It's only a matter of time before a team with this much talent gets going. After thumping the Detroit Pistons 113-86, the Knicks came back last night and gave the Eastern Conference-leading Chicago Bulls all they could handle. The Knicks would lost 102-105, but they're certainly battle-tested coming into this showdown with the Celtics.

New York is a superb 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. division opponents. They are actually outscoring their division foes 101.1 to 97.2 in this spot. The Celtics are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. These three trends make for a 22-1 system backing New York. Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +8

The Orlando Magic are way overvalued heading into this game with the Cleveland Cavaliers. While Orlando has been one of the most overrated teams in the league this season, the Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated.

Orlando simply cannot be trusted with the Dwight Howard situation and his likely trade looming. That has especially been the case of late as the Magic are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Their one win came at home against the lowly Washington Wizards 109-103.

The Cavaliers are 8-12 SU, but 12-8 ATS. They have been dealt a very tough schedule in the early going with 12 road games compared to 8 home games. Cleveland is 5-7 SU, but 8-4 ATS in road games this season. They are only getting outscored by 3.5 points/game away from home.

Orlando is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games off a home win against a division rival. The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Orlando is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. These three trends make for an 18-1 system going against the Magic. Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* Heat/76ers NBA Friday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5

The Philadelphia 76ers should not be a home underdog to the Miami Heat tonight. This is simply a display of how the Heat are way overvalued while the 76ers remain undervalued. These are two 16-6 teams and two of the best teams in the East, but I'll sign with the home squad to get it done here.

The 76ers will be out for revenge after a rare loss on the road in their first meeting with Miami earlier this season. Philadelphia has been dominant at home all year. The 76ers are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in home games, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.7 points/game.

Miami has been very beatable on the road this season. The Heat are just 6-4 away from home, outscoring opponents by 0.3 points/game. They are giving up a ridiculous 101.5 points/game in road games as their defense has been nearly non-existent. To compare, the 76ers are only giving up 81.3 points/game at home.

The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Miami is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games, while the 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. These five trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing Philly. Take the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4

The Memphis Grizzlies remain overrated despite playing without their best player, Zach Randolph. It has finally caught up to them as the Grizzlies are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. This team should not be getting this much respect Thursday.

Atlanta continues going under the radar despite being one of the top teams in the league. The Hawks are 16-6 on the season, including 8-1 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 11.6 points/game. Memphis is 4-7 on the road, getting outscored by 5.8 points/game.

The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the Hawks. Plus, the Grizzlies are just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Atlanta Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Heat/Bucks UNDER 194.5

The total has been set way too high in this game between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks. I fully expect a defensive battle tonight. These teams just played on January 22nd in Miami with a 91-82 victory for the Heat and 173 combined points.

Miami and Milwaukee have historically played in some very low-scoring games. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this series with 190 or less combined points scored in nine of those 10 games. The only exception was a 101-95 overtime victory by Miami on 1/7/2011. That game was tied 91-91 at the end of regulation.

Milwaukee is 13-1 to the UNDER in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 12-1 to the UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the UNDER 194.5 points in this game Wednesday.

15* Bobcats/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Charlotte +13

The Charlotte Bobcats always tend to play the Los Angeles Lakers very tough. At the same time, the Lakers are certainly a team that has played to the level of their competition over the last few years. I look for the Lakers to overlook the Bobcats enough tonight to let Charlotte cover this inflated number.

The Bobcats are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Lakers. In fact, Charlotte has actually won 8 of those 13 meetings outright! The Lakers' largest margin of victory in their five wins has been by 9 points. Two of their wins have come by a single point!

The Lakers haven't beaten the Bobcats by more than 11 points once in 14 meetings since 2005, making for a perfect 14-0 system backing Charlotte pertaining to tonight's spread. Roll with the Bobcats Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are showing great value as only a 2-point favorite over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. Oklahoma City has been the best team in the league this season, and any time you can get the Thunder at this, they are worth a look.

The Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a grueling 109-105 win at Denver last night. Meanwhile, the Thunder come in on two days' rest, so they'll be ready to go when thye hit the floor tonight.

The Thunder are 16-3 this season, including a very impressive 8-2 on the road. OKC is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Hornets +2.5

The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. They are an underdog and shouldn't be tonight. This team has suffered several close losses all season, but they're in line for a victory Sunday.

New Orleans just beat Orlando 93-67 two nights ago in their last game. This is a team that is taking out their frustration from so many close losses! They will not be denied tonight, and look for the Hornets to go on a mini following this victory.

Atlanta is 11-23 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Hornets Sunday.

FREE Pro Bowl Pick: NFC -5.5

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -9

The Sacramento Kings are one of the worst teams in the league. Sacramento is 6-13 this season, and they've lost three straight by 33, 12 and 29 points, respectively. I like them to lose by double-digits again tonight against Utah.

The Jazz are 8-3 at home this season, winning by 7.0 points/game on average. They should have no problem winning by 10-plus against the Kings tonight. Sacramento is just 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

This play falls into a system that is 52-22 ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. Roll with the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5

The Knicks are showing awesome value Saturday. They played the Miami Heat very tough last night with Carmelo Anthony, and I fully expect them to beat the Houston Rockets tonight. They actually play as a team without Anthony, so it's not surprising that they are succesful.

New York is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. They are actually winning in this spot 113.4 to 107.1 on average. Also, the Knicks are a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Take this 20-0 system straight to the bank. Bet New York Saturday.

20* Knicks/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 195

The New York Knicks are going to be without two starters and two key offensive pieces tonight. Leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (23.6 PPG) and starting PG Baron Davis are both out tonight as they deal with wrist and back injuries, respectively. Points are going to be hard to come by for New York without these two.

Miami is likely going to be without Dwayne Wade once again tonight as he continues to recover from an ankle injury. I expect the Heat to win this game, but it will be because of a great defensive effort against the short-handed Knicks. Miami has had trouble scoring of late, putting up just 91.7 points/game in their last three. But they are stopping opponents with ease, yielding only 90.6 points/game in their last five.

New York was having a hard time scoring even with Anthony. They are putting up just 94.5 points/game on the season. Their defense is improved though, especially on the road. The Knicks are scoring 93.7 points/game and allowing 91.8 points/game in road games for an average combined score of 185.5 points/game. New York is 8-1 to the UNDER in all road games this season.

New York is 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Knicks and Heat combined for 177 and 181 points in their final two meetings last season, respectively. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +16

The Philadelphia 76ers are clearly one of the best teams in the league, but the odds are finally starting to catch up to them. Philly opened 11-2 ATS through their first 13 games as they flew under the radar. The 76ers are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last 5, losing to the Nets 90-97 as an 11-point favorite last time out.

There's no question that the Charlotte Bobcats have struggled in the early going. The good news is that because of their struggles, the betting public is off of them. This provides us with some excellent line value on the Bobcats going forward, especially tonight as a ridiculous 16-point underdog. They can get blown out and still cover this monster spread.

The Bobcats are 11-1 (92%) ATS in their last 12 road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game. They are only losing by 5.1 points/game on average in this spot. The Bobcats are a superb 13-1 (93%) ATS in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. They are actually winning in this spot by 4.9 points/game. Roll with the Bobcats Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 193

The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. The Clippers are coming off a grueling 91-96 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. They'll be moving at a much slower pace in this one as they play the second of a back-to-back and control the tempo at home.

The Clippers are 6-4 to the UNDER in all home games this season. They are scoring 99.3 points/game and allowing 93.2 points/game for an average combined score of 192.5 points/game. As you can see, that average is slightly below the posted total tonight.

The real value comes in when you look at the numbers Memphis has posted on the road. The Grizzlies are 8-1 to the UNDER in all road games this season. They are scoring just 85.4 points/game on the road and allowing 91.6 points/game for an average combined score of 177.0 points/game. As you can see, that numbers is 16 points lower than the posted total tonight.

Memphis is 13-1 to the UNDER in their last 14 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. The Clippers are 8-0 to the UNDER in their last 8 home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game. These two trends make for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Blazers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors are in a great spot tonight. They are highly motivated from three straight losses by a combined 11 points. Plus, they catch Portland on a second of a back-to-back and playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

Golden State will be the more rested team tonight, and they'll be able to bring more energy to the floor while also playing with more passion to try and put an end to this recent skid. The Warriors will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Warriors have had the Blazers' numbers in recent years. Golden State has won three straight over Portland. The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Warriors, and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Golden State.

The Warriors have won the last two meetings in this series by 24 and 21 points, respectively. Portland just hasn't been able to keep up with these young, fresh legs that the Warriors offer. Look for Golden State to run them out of the building tonight. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +12

Sure, the New Jersey Nets are just 5-13 on the season, but a big reason for that is the schedule they have faced thus far. The Nets have played 11 road games compared to 7 home games. According to a source that I use, the Nets have played the second-toughest schedule in the league. New Jersey is clearly undervalued because of this.

The Philadelphia 76ers have been on the opposite end of the spectrum. Philly has opened 12-5 this season while blowing many teams out in the process. But the biggest reason for this is their schedule. According to a source I use, the 76ers have played the third-easiest schedule in the league thus far. They are overvalued right now.

New Jersey just played Chicago on the road last time out. The Bulls are the best team in the league according to a source I use, and the Nets lost to the Bulls by 15 points. New Jersey is now battle-tested and won't be afraid to go into Philly and take on another quality team tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (<=-7 PPG differential), after allowing 85 points or less. Take the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER 187.5

I anticipate a defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers. Both teams come in tired after playing last night, so this will be the second of a back-to-back for each squad. Look for the tempo to be slow and the points to be hard to come by against two great half-court defenses.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Memphis' eight road games this season. The Grizzlies are scoring just 85.6 points/game while allowing only 90.9 points/game away from home. That's an average combined score of 176.5 points/game. Portland is only giving up 93.6 points/game in all games this year.

This play falls into a system that is 66-26 (71.7%) to the UNDER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after a close win by 3 points or less. Memphis used up a lot of energy erasing a 16-point deficit in the 4th quarter last night to come back and beat the Warriors 91-90.

Memphis is 12-1 to the UNDER in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 12-2 to the UNDER in their last 14 following six or more consecutive wins. The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 4-1 in Blazers last 5 games overall. The UNDER is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Portland. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are showing solid value as a mere 3-point home favorite over the Orlando Magic tonight. Indiana looks to open 6-0 at home for the first time since 2002-03 on Tuesday night when it tries to snap a five-game skid in this series with the Orlando Magic, so payback will be on their minds as well.

Despite having two days of rest since defeating the Lakers 92-80 on Friday, Orlando set franchise lows for points, field goals (16) and field goal percentage (24.6) in an 87-56 loss at Boston last night. While the Pacers have lost their last three at home to the Magic, they have never lost four in a row at home to Orlando.

Indiana (11-4) is off to its best start in eight seasons despite playing only five home games, tied with Cleveland for fewest in the league. The Pacers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points/game. They have won five of their last six overall, including a big road win at the Los Angeles Lakers two days ago.

The Magic are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central. Orlando is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Magic are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Indiana is 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1.5

The Golden State Warriors are showing solid value as a small home favorite tonight against overrated Memphis. The Warriors are finally back to full strength with the return of Stephen Curry, who scored 12 points Friday after missing the previous eight games with a sprained right ankle.

So the Warriors have had two days off to prepare for the Grizzlies after last playing on Friday. Meanwhile, this will be the 3rd game in 4 days for Memphis. The Grizzlies are getting a lot of respect right now due to their 6-game winning streak, but five of those wins came against losing teams, and the other was against a Bulls team playing without MVP Derrick Rose.

The home team has won seven straight in this series. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet Golden State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +4.5

The Boston Celtics should not be an underdog at home to the Orlando Magic tonight. While Boston has struggled in the early going, this team is still fully capable of beating any team in the league. The Magic are getting way too much respect with this line Monday.

Paul Pierce certainly looked like his old self in a 100-94 win at Washington yesterday. Pierce finished with a season-high 34 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds. The Celtics have now won two of their last three to get right back on track.

Orlando is 9-20 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Celtics are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. The Magic are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Orlando is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Take the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They made a rare National TV appearance last night on ESPN, and erased a double-digit deficit to come all the way back and beat the Chris Paul-less Los Angeles Clippers. Kevin Love hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Look for the Timberwolves to come out sluggish tonight against the Utah Jazz. Meanwhile, the Jazz will come out motivated following a rare home loss Thursday on National TV to the Dallas Mavericks. Utah is 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.0 points/game.

Utah has won three straight home meetings with Minnesota by 15, 8 and 22 points, respectively. The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8

The New Jersey Nets are showing awesome value as a big home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. While Oklahoma City owns the best record in the Western Conference at 12-3, they really aren't blowing out opponents. The Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 4.5 points/game overall and by 2.2 points/game on the road.

The New Jersey Nets have played much better of late. They have recent wins over both Phoenix and Golden State, and they also played Denver and the L.A. Clippers tough on the road. This team is finally hitting its stride and should show great improvement the rest of the way as Deron Williams and company continue to mesh.

The Nets are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. New Jersey is 13-3 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Nets Saturday.

20* Lakers/Magic ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 181.5

The Los Angeles Lakers and the Orlando Magic should have not problem combining to score more than the posted total tonight. Oddsmakers have simply set the bar too low for a pair of 10-win teams that will light it up offensively tonight. Both squads take good shots as each is hitting 45.5 percent from the field this season.

Orlando is averaging 97.3 points/game while allowing 92.4 points/game this season. That's an average combined score of 189.7 points/game. The Magic like to push the tempo a little bit, and playing at home, they will control the tempo tonight. The Lakers give up 98.8 points/game on the road this season, and they are combining with their opponents to average 190.1 points/game away from home.

This play falls into a system that is 44-16 (73.3%) to the OVER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less.

The OVER is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 Friday games. These three trends make for a perfect 14-0 system backing the OVER tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls/Cavaliers OVER 186

While many teams in this league have struggled offensively because of the lockout, the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers have not. Chicago is averaging 95.1 points/game while Cleveland is putting up 96.4 points/game.

Better yet, the Cavaliers are putting up 101.0 points/game at home giving up 98.0 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 199.0 points/game. The Bulls are scoring 97.6 points/game on the road and allowing 94.1 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 191.7 points/game. Given these averages, you can see why there is solid value with this OVER tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 43-14 (75.4%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - an excellent defensive team (<=88 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

The OVER is 6-1 in Bulls last 7 games as a road favorite. The OVER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games overall. The OVER is 10-1 in Cavaliers last 11 games playing on 2 days rest. Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7

The Washington Wizards are showing solid value as a big home underdog to the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Wizards have played much better of late after a very slow start. Washington is coming off a huge 105-102 home win over the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder. That victory showed what they are capable of, and I look for the Wizards to come in with a lot of confidence against the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets are off to a solid 10-5 start, but they are only outscoring opponents by 5.6 points/game this season, including 4.0 points/game on the road. The Wizards are only getting outscored by 5.1 points/game at home. There is at least a couple points of value with the home underdog tonight.

This is also a huge look-ahead spot for the Nuggets, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Denver plays New York tomorrow. The Nuggets have several players on their team that were in a blockbuster trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York. These Denver players certainly want revenge on their former team, and will be looking forward to that tomorrow. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

20* Mavs/Jazz NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2.5

The Utah Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. Because they are not a flashy team, the betting public is off of them as they continue to stay out of the media. But this is one of the better teams in the Western Conference, and they have been nearly unstoppable at home.

Utah is off to a 9-4 start this season. The Jazz have been red hot of late, going 8-1 in their last nine games overall. Utah is 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents 98.7 to 89.4 or by an average of 9.3 points/game. Their only home loss came in overtime to the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Dallas Mavericks are clearly down this season and not nearly as motivated as they were last year when they won the NBA Championship. The Mavs are just 8-7 on the year, including back-to-back losses to both Los Angeles teams. This is a tough spot for Dallas as it will be the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Utah is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Mavericks are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 Thursday games. The home team is 23-7-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings in this series, and Utah is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with Dallas. Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +4.5

The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value tonight as a home underdog to the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are getting too much respect here as they should not be laying points on the road without their best player. Zach Randolph remains out with a with a knee injury.

It's like night and day for Memphis home and away. The Grizzlies are an impressive 5-2 at home, but they are only 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road. Memphis is only scoring 80.6 points/game and allowing 93.8 points/game while getting outscored by 13.2 points/game away from home.

This is a great revenge spot for the Hornets. New Orleans lost at Memphis 99-108 as a 10.5-point underdog just five days ago, so there's no question that that loss is fresh in their minds. They'll be trying extra hard tonight to get some payback. Plus, this will only be their 2nd game in 4 days, so the Hornets come in rested.

The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. Memphis is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Worse yet, the Grizzlies are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. This is an ideal spot to fade Memphis. Take the Hornets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -5.5

The Philadelphia 76ers should be laying a bigger number tonight against the Denver Nuggets. Somehow, these 76ers are still going under the radar despite being the most profitable team in the league at the betting window. I'll continue to ride them until the value is no longer there.

Philly is 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS this season, with all three losses coming on the road. The 76ers are a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS at home this season. They are scoring 102.5 points/game and allowing 79.5 points/game while outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 23.0 points/game at home.

Denver is a mediocre 3-3 on the road this season. Their road wins have come against Dallas, New Orleans and Milwaukee, so nothing special. The Nuggets are a tired team right now as this will be their second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Philly had yesterday off and this will only be their 2nd game in 4 days.

The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Philly is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. These three trends make for a perfect 20-0 system backing Philly. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9.5

It's amazing that there is even a line up for this game considering Derrick Rose (toe) is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision. The good news is I like Phoenix whether Rose plays or not. The great news is that if he doesn't play, then getting the Suns at 9.5 is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

Rose did not play yesterday in a 86-102 loss at Memphis. This is a very tired Chicago team right now, and even if Rose plays, the rest of their players are going to be worn down. This will be Chicago's 7th game in 9 days, and their 11th game in 15 days. It's clearly their toughest stretch of the season.

Phoenix comes in on solid rest as this will be only their 2nd game in four days. The big reason they are showing such great value is due to their 4-game losing streak. They have failed to cover four straight against the spread, but now is the time to jump on board. You won't find Phoenix showing much better value the rest of the season than they are tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 60-26 (69.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (CHICAGO) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Roll with the Suns Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Lakers NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value tonight as a small home favorite against the Dallas Mavericks. The Lakers want this game more than any other game they will play during the regular season. Los Angeles was swept in the second round of the playoffs last year by the Mavericks, and there's no question they want revenge.

While Dallas is riding a five-game winning streak, they have beating up on some very suspect opponents. Their five wins have come against the Hornets, Pistons, Celtics, Bucks and Kings. All five of those teams have losing records and they are a combined 18-42 on the season.

The Lakers are the real deal this year and they are starting to really click under new head coach Mike Brown. L.A. has won five of their last six games overall, and they've been virtually unstoppable at home. The Lakers are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points/game.

The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Lakers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Look for Kobe Bryant to go off for 40-plus points for a fifth straight game tonight while leading his team to a win and cover. Bet the Lakers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Early ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -8.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are perhaps the most underrated team in the league this season. This squad just keeps crushing the opposition, especially at home. The 76ers are so deep that they will really benefit from this lockout-shortened season all year.

Philly is 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS this season, making backers a fortune at the betting window. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home, scoring 104.2 points/game while allowing 79.0 points/game for an average margin of victory over a ridiculous 25.2 points/game. The 76ers have seven players averaging double-digit points.

The Milwaukee Bucks are just 4-7 this season. Milwaukee has yet to win on the road, going 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS away from home. The Bucks are only scoring 87.0 points/game on 39.9 percent shooting on the road. They are allowing 96.9 points/game, so the Bucks are getting outscored by an average of 9.9 points/game away from home.

Philly is 8-0 ATS in home games after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The 76ers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Philly is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. These four trends make for a perfect 29-0 system backing Philly. Roll with the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +11

The New Orleans Hornets should not be catching double-digits against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Memphis is not at full strength, thus they shouldn't be this heavily favored. The Grizzlies are still playing without their best player in Zach Randolph, who makes a huge difference for this team.

This play falls into a system that is 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Because the Hornets have hit a rough patch recently, they are now showing the kind of value that's worth backing. Roll with New Orleans Saturday.

20* Heat/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -3.5

The Miami Heat are not about to lose three in a row. After back-to-back overtime losses, I have Miami bouncing back in a big way tonight in Denver. Look for the Heat to be more motivated for this game than any other so for this season. This team is very dangerous when they play with a chip on their shoulder.

Denver is not a good defensive team, and they have no chance containing Lebron, Wade and Bosh in this one. The Heat lead the league in scoring at 106.6 points/game while connecting on a ridiculous 48.8 percent of their shots. This is simply not a good match-up for the Nuggets.

This play falls into a system that is 87-41 (68%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites (MIAMI) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=43% on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.

The Heat are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Miami is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. The Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet Miami Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5

Any time the Los Angeles Lakers are laying double-digits, they are overvalued. The Lakers are a good team this season under new head coach Mike Brown, but this is a team notorious for playing down to their competition.

The Lakers are a respectable 8-4 this season, but five of their last six wins have come by single-digits. They aren't built for blowing teams out, and they rely way too much on Kobe Bryant to be able to win in blowouts consistently.

Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the league this year. The Cavs are off to a solid 5-5 start this season, and they are coming off a huge 101-90 road victory over the Phoenix Suns last night. What's most impressive about their 5-5 start is that seven of their first 10 games have come on the road.

The Cavs want revenge from their worst loss of the season last year. Cleveland lost in L.A. 57-112 in a game that symbolized the low point of their season. They would eventually get payback with a 104-99 home victory over the Lakers a little more than a month later, but this team wants real revenge by going into L.A. and coming away with a victory tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Take the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 194

The Spurs and Blazers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly by setting the bar way too high in this one. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER as all signs points toward a low-scoring affair.

Just looking at Portland's road numbers, it's easy to see why I'm siding with the UNDER tonight. The Blazers are scoring 89.3 points/game on the road and allowing 96.0 points/game for an average combined score of 185.3 points/game. Scoring won't get any easier for Portland tonight as they're up against a San Antonio team that gives up just 91.3 points/game at home.

The biggest reason for this play is recent head-to-head games between these teams. The Blazers and Spurs have combined to score 194 or less points in 10 straight meetings. That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Hornets +1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have no business being a favorite at New Orleans tonight. While Minnesota has received a lot of hype from Ricky Rubio and company, they simply have not lived up to expectations. At the same time, the Hornets are a better team than they get credit for even with the loss of Chris Paul.

Minnesota is just 3-7 this season, which includes road losses at Toronto and Milwaukee. This is a team that was supposed to be improved with the additions or Rubio and Derrick Williams among others, but they simply have not clicked in the early going. It's going to take some time for this team to gel.

New Orleans is also 3-7, but they have played an absolute brutal schedule. Their last five games have come against Denver twice, Philly, Dallas and Oklahoma City. This team is battle-tested and will be looking forward to a "break" tonight with the lowly Timberwolves coming to town.

The Timberwolves are 5-24 ATS in their last 29 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. Minnesota is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 2 days rest. The Timberwolves are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the Hornets Friday.

15* Bulls/Celtics ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston +2.5

The Boston Celtics should not be catching points at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls. Boston is going to be very hungry tonight after back-to-back home losses to the Pacers and Mavericks to drop them to below .500 on the season.

While Derrick Rose is expected to play for Chicago tonight, it won't matter. Rose missed last game with a toe injury and he'll be playing through pain tonight if he goes. Richard Hamilton doubtful with a groin injury and C.J. Watson is out with an ankle injury. The Bulls are certainly vulnerable right now.

Home-court advantage has proven to be huge in this rivalry between the Bulls and Celtics. The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings in this series, and Boston has won six of their last seven at home against Chicago. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings as well.

The Celtics are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Boston is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. You certainly want to back this team after a rough stretch and also when they are an underdog. Take the Celtics Friday.

20* Magic/Warriors NBA on TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 187.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar far too low tonight in the Orlando vs. Golden State game. These are two well-rested teams and each will want to push the pace tonight because of it. Look for a high-scoring game that exceeds 200 combined points tonight.

Orlando will be playing just their 2nd games in four days. They have gone OVER the total in their last two. Orlando beat Sacramento 104-97 on the road on 1/8 followed by a 107-104 road victory over Portland last night. Look for their hot shooting to continue tonight against a soft Warriors defense.

Golden State will be playing just their 2nd game in five days. They are coming off a 111-106 overtime victory over the Miami Heat just two nights ago. They put up 96 points in regulation and 15 more in overtime despite shooting just 40.0 percent from the floor. I look for their shooting numbers to improve tonight against Orlando.

The Warriors and Magic have combined to score 194 or more points in each of their last eight meetings. This makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. While these are two new teams this season, there's no question the value in this game is with the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Knicks/Grizzlies NBA on TNT BEST BET on UNDER 194

Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high tonight in this game between the New York Knicks and Memphis Grizzlies. Of course, their natural habit is to set the number too high in Knicks games considering this team hasn't played defense for years now. However, that's not the case this season.

New York is 7-3 to the UNDER in all games, including 4-1 to the UNDER in road games. The Knicks are scoring just 95.3 points/game this season while allowing 93.7 points/game for an average combined score of 189.0 points/game. They are only allowing 91.8 points/game on the road this year as well.

Memphis is scoring 91.0 points/game this season an d allowing 95.1 points/game for an average combined score of 186.1 points/game. As you can see, that number is well below the posted total tonight, and the same goes for New York. Just looking at both team's season averages it's easy to see that the value is with the UNDER in this contest.

New York is 9-1 to the UNDER in their last 10 road games following a division game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 games overall. These three trends make for a 18-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Heat/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 203

The Miami Heat have brought a pace and space philosophy into the new season under head coach Erik Spoelstra. He went to Oregon football coach Chip Kelly to get some advice on this pace and space style. As a result, the Heat are now playing the most up-tempo style in the league to take advantage of their superior athleticism.

Miami leads the league in scoring at 108.1 points/game, which is 6.4 points more than second place. However, the Heat have the fourth-worst scoring defense at 98.0 points/game. So as you can see, Miami is combining with their opponents to average 206.1 points/game this season. They have gone 7-3 to the OVER in all games.

The Clippers have a very good team this season with the additions they made in the offseason. L.A. is 8th in the league in scoring at 99.3 points/game, but they are just 25th in scoring defense at 97.6 points/game. The Clippers are a team that can keep pace with the Heat, and I look for a high-scoring game because of it.

The OVER is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 games following a loss. The OVER is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games overall. The OVER is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +7

The New Orleans Hornets are showing solid value tonight as a big home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. New Orleans has a very good chance to be a profitable team this year at the pay window because the betting public does not want to back them after trading away Chris Paul. I still believe this team has plenty of talent overall to compete this season.

Oklahoma City is way overvalued tonight due to their 9-2 start to the season. This will be OKC's 5th game in 6 days, which is a tough stretch for any team. While the Thunder have nine wins this year, five of those victories have come by 5 points or less. This is a good team, but luck has clearly been on their side in the early going.

New Orleans is coming off their best win of the season, a 94-81 road victory over the Denver Nuggets. With a night off in between games, this team will return home playing with a lot of confidence tonight. They will be the fresher team, and I can certainly see the Thunder overlooking the Hornets just like the Nuggets did two nights ago.

The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Oklahoma City is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The home team has won four of the last five in this series. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Jazz UNDER 188

I believe oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this game between Cleveland and Utah Tuesday. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what should be a very low-scoring game in Utah tonight.

Just looking at their home/away numbers, it's easy to see why the value is with the UNDER in this one. Cleveland is scoring 89.8 points/game on the road while allowing 92.8 points/game for an average combined score of 182.6 points/game. Utah is scoring 93.7 points/game at home and allowing 86.7 points/game for an average combined score of 180.4 points/game.

Cleveland is 3-0 to the UNDER in their last 3 games with combined scores of 169, 185 and 176 points. Utah is 3-1 to the UNDER in thier last 4 games with combined scores of 184, 158, 179 and 175 points. The UNDER is 8-0 in Cavaliers last 8 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 8-0-1 in Jazz last 9 games following a ATS win. These two trends make for a 16-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3

The Oklahoma City Thunder should be a much heavier favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. OKC has had Memphis' number dating back to last season, and I don't see that changing here Tuesday. The Thunder have won four of their last five meetings with the Grizzlies.

A big reason I expect OKC to win in a blowout tonight is the fact that Memphis will be without their best player. Zach Randolph has missed the past four games with a knee injury and he's expected to be out until late February. This team was already thin in the frontcourt with Darrell Arthur out for the season.

The Thunder are off to a fast 8-2 start and I don't see them slowing down. This is the best team in the West in my opinion and I have them going all the way to the NBA Finals. The Thunder won their first meeting of the season with Memphis 98-95 on the road despite Russell Westbrook having the worst shooting games of his career. He missed all 13 field goal attempts and finished with four points.

The Thunder are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 Tuesday games. OKC is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Memphis. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet Oklahoma City Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Jersey Nets +6

The New Jersey Nets should not be catching six points at home against the Atlanta Hawks tonight. New Jersey is showing their best value of the season with this spread. They are a bit undervalued right now due to their slow 2-7 start.

A big reason for the Nets' struggles in the early going has been injuries. But this team has started to get healthier of late with both PG Deron Williams and F Kris Humphries recently returning from injuries. These are their two best players, so having them on the floor is obviously very important.

Atlanta is off to a 6-3 start, so they are a bit overvalued right now. The Hawks have also covered four of their last five, which has given them some extra respect from oddsmakers. Atlanta is going to be without starting F Marvin Williams in this game due to an ankle injury. It's clear that the value in this game is with the big home dog.

The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series. New Jersey is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home meetings with Atlanta. The Hawks are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following two or more consecutive wins. Take the Nets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +11

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing too good of value to pass up Monday as a double-digit underdog to the New York Knicks once again. New York was favored by 11.5 in their first meeting of the season with the Bobcats on 1/04, and they actually lost that game outright at home 118-110.

While the Knicks will want revenge, they should not be laying double-digits. New York is too inconsistent of a team to be laying double-digits against almost anyone. The Knicks have started 4-4, which includes a 1-2 home mark. They are clearly overrated in the eyes of oddsmakers and the betting public considering New York is just 2-6 ATS in all games this year.

This play falls into a system that is 42-17 (71.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days.

The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic. The Knicks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. New York is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. These four trends make for a 20-0 system backing Charlotte. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Blazers UNDER 194.5

I'm siding with the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Portland Trail Blazers. Oddsmakers have inflated the number here. Portland is a strong defensive team that likes to play the half-court game. They will control the tempo at home tonight in a slowed-down contest.

The Cavs aren't an offensive juggernaut by any means, and they get after it defensively, too. Cleveland is scoring 97.1 points and allowing 93.3 points for an average combined score of 190.4 points/game. The Blazers are scoring 99.1 points and allowing 95.4 points for an average combined score of 194.5 points/game. Given both team's averages, you can see why there is some value with this UNDER tonight.

Cleveland is 34-17 to the UNDER in road games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1996. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. These last three trends make for a 18-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Jazz/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors are showing very good value Saturday as a mere 3-point home favorite over the Utah Jazz. All that you need to see is how poorly Utah has played on the road this season to know that this is a solid bet tonight.

Utah is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this season. Not only are they losing away from home, they are getting absolutely slaughtered. The Jazz are scoring 86.7 points and giving up 105.7 points on the road, getting outscoring by an average of 19.0 points/game!

The Jazz are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. win. Utah is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Golden State is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 Saturday games, while Utah is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games. Take the Warriors Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -1

The Atlanta Hawks are in a very tough spot tonight. I'm going to side with the home favorite Charlotte Bobcats because of it. The Bobcats come in with a huge advantage in the rest department, and they are going to be giving better effort than the Hawks for four quarters.

Atlanta will be playing their 4th game in 5 days tonight. Not to mention they are coming off a three-overtime thriller against the Miami Heat last night, which they lost at home. This team will be deflated and their best effort won't be good enough as they'll be running on fumes after such a brutal stretch.

Charlotte comes in with confidence after putting an end to a four-game losing streak by beating the New York Knicks 118-110 on the road as an 11-point dog two nights ago. While that four-game losing streak is concerning, two of those games came against the Miami Heat while another was against Orlando.

The Bobcats are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Bobcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Hawks are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Charlotte is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 meetings with Atlanta, including 9-2 (82%) ATS in their last 11 home meetings. Take the Bobcats Friday.

20* Heat/Hawks NBA on TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 188.5

The Miami Heat have changed their philosophy this season, and I'm going to continue to ride their OVERS early because of it. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra visited Oregon football coach Chip Kelly to gather in as much information as he could this offseason. His goal was to learn about the pace and space philosophy, which he has installed in Miami.

The Heat are looking to fast break every chance they get to maximize the athleticism on this team, which is clearly the best in the NBA. They have been scoring at will in the early going. Miami is averaging 108.3 points/game this season while allowing 95.7 points/game, which is an average combined score of 204.0 points/game. That number is well above tonight's posted total.

Miami and Atlanta combined for 192 points in their first meeting. Atlanta won that game 100-92 as Miami wasn't able to execute their pace and space offense. Look for the Heat to execute a lot better tonight while also pushing the tempo more than they did in the first meeting.

The OVER is 12-4-1 in Miami's last 17 games as a favorite. The OVER is 11-5 in Miami's last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The OVER is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Heat OVER 198

The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat should have no problem combining to score 198-plus tonight. Indiana has played a bunch of awful offensive teams in the early going, which has led to them playing in more low-scoring games than they normally would. Now, they face one of the best offensive teams in the league in the Heat.

Miami is scoring 106.7 points/game overall while allowing 97.8 points/game for an average combined score of 204.5 points/game. The Heat are scoring 112.0 points/game at home and allowing 99.0 points/game at home for an average combined score of 211.0 points/game. Given their season averages, there is certainly value with this OVER tonight.

The Heat are 9-1 to the OVER in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 9-1 in Pacers last 10 vs. NBA Southeast. The OVER is 9-2-1 in Heat last 12 home games. the OVER is 8-2 in Heat last 10 games following a loss. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +11.5

Off a 101-115 loss at Cleveland last night, the betting public is off of the Bobcats and oddsmakers have been forced to set an inflated line here tonight. I like Charlotte to bounce back tonight with a much better effort at New York, which is a team that is always overvalued.

The Knicks are off to a 2-3 start this season, including a 85-90 home loss to the Toronto Raptors last time out. New York has been taking bad shots all year, which is why they are shooting just 40.2 percent from the floor and averaging a mere 93.0 points/game. There's no way they should be favored by double-digits over Charlotte.

New York has not beaten Charlotte by more than 4 points in any of their last 12 meetings. That makes for a perfect 12-0 ATS system pertaining to tonight's spread. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +4

The Charlotte Bobcats get the call Tuesday as a 4-point underdog to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland should not be favored against anyone in the league as they are clearly a team in rebuilding mode.

The Bobcats are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.

Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Cavaliers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite, which includes 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Heat OVER 196.5

I'll back the OVER in this game Monday between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat. The OVER is hitting 60% in Miami games in the early going, and 80% if you would have got in on their OVERS when the line opened. The Heat are 2-0 to the OVER at home this season.

Miami brought in a new style of basketball to the court this season. A change in philosophy with a "pace and space" style learned from Oregon football coach Chip Kelly has led to a lot of shootouts in Miami games this year. The Heat are scoring 109.6 points/game overall, including 122.0 points/game at home. They are also giving up 97.4 points/game overall and 98.5 points/game at home.

Atlanta is 11-2 to the OVER in their last 13 road games after scoring 85 points or less. The OVER is 9-1-1 in Miami's last 11 home games. Miami will control the pace playing at home, and the OVER will remain perfect in their home games this season. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Hornets -2

The New Orleans Hornets are one of my sleeper picks in the Western Conference as far as a team with little expectations that could make the playoffs. They have proven me right in the early going, opening 2-0 with a pair of impressive wins. They beat Phoenix on the road before topping the Boston Celtics at home 97-78.

I had Phoenix being way down this season, and that certainly appears to be the case in the early going. They have opened 0-2 with back-to-back home losses. They were beaten by these same Hornets while also losing tot he Philadelphia 76ers 83-103.

Point guard Jarrett Jack did not play in the first game against Phoenix as he was serving a one-game suspension. Jack came back and scored 21 points while dishing out nine assists against Boston. "We have a lot of guys on this team that are hungry," Jack said. "A lot of guys want to prove themselves - a lot of capable guys."

The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Hornets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Friday games. New Orleans is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Hornets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home meetings with Phoenix, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in this series overall. They have won four straight over the Suns. Bet New Orleans Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7.5

The Sacramento Kings should not be this big of an underdog to the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are way overrated early in the season after finishing with the league's best record last year. The Kings are way underrated after finishing with one of the worst records in the NBA last season. This provides us with ample value to pull the trigger on the Kings tonight.

Sacramento has already proven that they can play with the elite teams. The Kings beat the Los Angeles Lakers 100-91 at home in their opener. That was an impressive win considering they had lost nine of their last 10 to Los Angeles coming in. They had also lost nine of their last 10 at home to the Lakers.

Proof that Chicago is overvalued comes with the fact that they are 0-2 ATS this season. They were favored by 5 points at the Lakers and needed to erase a 10-point deficit over the final four minutes just to win 88-87. They went on the road the following night and lost at Golden State 91-99 as a 6.5-point favorite.

The Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Chicago is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. Roll with the Kings Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Heat/Bobcats OVER 192

The Miami Heat are playing a completely different style of basketball this season. Head coach Erik Spoelstra visited Chip Kelly, the head coach of the Oregon Ducks college football team, this offseason. He got some tips from Kelly on how to run an up-tempo style of offense.

So far, it's been working. Miami is averaging 110.0 points/game in wins over the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics. Their 115-point total against Boston last night was extremely impressive considering how well the Celtics usually play defense. It has hurt their own defense, though, as the Heat are allowing 100.5 points/game.

The OVER is 10-1-1 in Heat last 12 games as a favorite. The OVER is 10-1 in Bobcats last 11 games as a home underdog. The OVER is 7-0 in Bobcats last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These three trends add up to a 27-2 (93%) system backing the OVER tonight. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Heat TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston +10.5

The Boston Celtics get the nod Tuesday as a double-digit underdog to the Miami Heat. This line is simply an overreaction from Miami's blowout victory over Dallas in the opener, coupled with Boston's narrow 2-point loss at New York. Miami is overrated while Boston is underrated coming into the season.

These teams met nine times last year. Boston won four and Miami won five. The Heat only beat the Celtics by more than 11 points once in those nine contests. That sentence alone shows that this line is way inflated.

The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Miami is 4-13 ATS in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 13-28 ATS after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996. Roll with the Celtics Tuesday.

15* Bulls/Warriors NBA Monday Night BAILOUT on Golden State +6.5

The Chicago Bulls are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers and the betting public in the early going this season. Because they finished with the best record in the league during the regular season last year, Chicago has big expectations. They cannot possibly live up to these expectations early.

That was evident yesterday when they were actually favored by 5 points at the Los Angeles Lakers. Chicago won that game 88-87, but they had to erase an 11-point deficit over the final four minutes to do so. This 6.5-point spread is simply too much tonight against the Golden State Warriors.

Golden State played well in the first half by taking a lead into intermission against the Clippers last night, but they were not so hot in the second half. Their two best players, Monte Ellis and Stephen Curry, went a combined 8-of-31 shooting last night. These two great shooters will not have back-to-back off nights to open the season, so don't expect another poor shooting performance from them tonight. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Roll with Golden State Monday.

20* Heat/Mavs NBA Season Opener on Miami -4

No Write-Up on Christmas

20* Mavs/Heat Game 6 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +5

The Dallas Mavericks smell blood, and I fully expect them to go out in Game 6 and win this series with an outright victory. But with the nature of these games being as close as any NBA Finals I can recall, I'm going to take the 5 points for some insurance. Dallas has all of the confidence and all of the momentum right now. They simply willed themselves to victories in Game 4 and Game 5 by simply stepping up in the closing minutes, while Miami faltered.

The Heat are playing it cool like everything is okay, but deep down inside they have their doubts right now. The Mavs are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Dallas is 8-1-1 (89%) ATS in their last 10 road games overall. The Heat are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 2 days rest. Dallas is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. The Mavs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Miami. Dallas is 20-4 ATS in their last 20 games overall, including 16-4 ATS in the playoffs. Take the Mavericks in Game 6 Sunday.

20* Heat/Mavs Game 5 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -1

Dallas finally got the boost they needed from their bench in Game 4, while Dirk Nowitzki saved his best for the fourth quarter despite playing with a fever the entire game. I like their bench to come in with more confidence tonight after a solid performance and to play even better in Game 5. Dirk's obviously feeling better now, and that will also be a bonus for the Mavs heading into this one. The Mavs could not be playing any better defensively, limiting Miami to 93 points or less in all four contests, including 88 and 83 points in Dallas.

Miami is 4-13 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less this season. Dallas is 19-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Mavs are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games overall, including 15-4 ATS in the playoffs. The Mavericks are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 1 days rest. Dallas is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The odds makers are giving us a gift tonight in listing Dallas as virtually a pick 'em in Game 5. Roll with the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Heat/Mavs Game 4 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3

Just as the Mavericks bounced back in a big way in Game 2, they'll take care of business in Game 4 following a disappointing Game 3 loss. This has been a very resilient team all year and they aren't about to let Miami run away with this series. Dallas has been right there with a chance to win every game thus far, but they just haven't quite gotten the effort they need from their bench to put 'em over the top. I like the Dallas bench to show up tonight and come out with their best game of the series to help out Dirk Nowitzki.

This play falls into a system that is 51-19 (72.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). The Mavs are 18-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Dallas is 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games overall, including 14-4 ATS in the playoffs. The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. The Mavs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Bet Dallas in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* Heat/Mavs NBA Finals Game 3 No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks have swung the momentum in their favor after a huge comeback from 15 points down to win Game 2. I like the Mavs to carry that momentum into Game 3 and come out guns-a-blazing tonight at home. This is going to be one of the loudest crowds you will ever see for an NBA game, making it even more difficult for the Miami Heat to overcome the doubts they have after blowing such a huge lead.

The Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog. The Mavs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. Dallas is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. Miami is 3-13 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less this season. Dallas is 14-3 ATS in all playoff games this year. Look for the Mavs to get a huge effort from their bench for the first time in this series as they feed off of their home crowd. Bet the Mavs in Game 3 Sunday.

20* Mavs/Heat NBA Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas +5

I like the Dallas Mavericks to bounce back from their Game 1 loss in a big way in Game 2. Dallas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss, including 3-0 in the playoffs. This has been a very resilient team and they have been a covering machine over the past couple months. Dallas is 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games overall, cashing in at an 85% clip against the spread. Getting five points tonight is an absolute gift from odds makers.

The Mavericks are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Dallas is 20-7 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 17-5 ATS as a road dog of six points or less. The Mavs are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Miami. The road team is an amazing 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Dallas comes back very hungry for a win tonight, and they likely win this one outright but I'll take the points for some insurance. Roll with the Mavericks in Game 2 Thursday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks +4.5

The Dallas Mavericks are going to steal Game 1 of this series. Dallas has been a covering machine throughout the playoffs and I like them to not only cover this number tonight, but to win outright. The Mavericks match up much better with the Miami Heat than most people think. Deshawn Stevenson held Dwayne Wade to just 2 points in 30 minutes as the primary defender on him in their two regular season meetings, both of which Dallas won. Shawn Marion held Lebron James to 38% shooting when he was the primary defender on him in those two games as well.

The Mavs are 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall. That includes a 13-2 ATS mark in the playoffs this postseason. The Mavericks are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 road games. Dallas is 56-27-1 ATS in their last 84 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Heat are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Mavericks are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Miami. Look for Dallas to improve to 3-0 on the season against Miami tonight. Take the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* Heat/Bulls NBA Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago -3

This play falls into a system that I really like to use come playoff time. It tells us to bet on home favorites (CHICAGO) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This system has gone 83-44 (65.4%) since 1996. Chicago is a team that is not going to go down without a fight, and they are favored for a reason here Thursday.

Miami is 14-29 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Chicago is 16-4 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 27-12 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. Bet Chicago Thursday.

15* Thunder/Mavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are not going to go down without a fight. They have won in Dallas once already in this series, getting 50 points from their bench in Game 2 to come out on top 106-100. They will come into this one with confidence knowing they've already won here before. This has been a very resilient team all season long.

OKC is 12-2 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Thunder are 11-1 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is 3-12 ATS in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The Thunder are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take Oklahoma City in Game 5 Wednesday.

25* Eastern Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +5

The Chicago Bulls have been a very resilient team all season. I like them to go into Miami and come away with an outright road victory tonight to regain home-court advantage. I will take the 5 points for some insurance in a game that should go right down to the wire. Head coach Tom Thibodeau was the NBA Coach of the Year for a reason. He is one of the best in the business at making adjustments, especially defensively where he helped Boston win an NBA title a few years back. Thibodeau is 27-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread as the coach of Chicago.

Meanwhile, Erik Spoelstra is just 13-29 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread as the coach of Miami. The Bulls are 20-6 ATS after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. Chicago is 33-17 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Bulls are 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season. The Bulls are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Chicago is 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog. Bet the Bulls in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Thunder NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City -3.5

I'm siding with the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 to bounce back with a blowout home victory. Just like they needed a victory in Game 2 and came up big on the road, I fully expect this team to play even better in Game 4 at home. OKC is 36-13 at home this season so their loss in Game 3 was a rarity.

The Thunder are 18-7 ATS off a home loss this season. OKC is 24-14 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent this year. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. OKC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Thunder are a superb 44-21-1 ATS in their last 66 games following a S.U. loss. Take the Thunder Monday.

15* Bulls/Heat Game 3 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +5

I am siding with the Chicago Bulls tonight as a 5-point underdog to the Miami Heat in Game 3. Not only do I believe they will cover this spread, I also feel there is a very good chance they win this game outright. Miami beat Chicago for the first time all season in Game 2, and the Bulls are now 4-1 against the Heat this year. The Bulls could not have shot any worse down the stretch and will not have another poor shooting performance like they did in Game 2.

As I have stated before, Chicago presents the toughest match-up for the Miami Heat in the league. The Bulls have an excellent point guard in Derrick Rose, while the Heat lack a solid point guard. Chicago gets some of the best interior play in the league from the likes of Noah, Boozer and Gibson while Miami's biggest weakness is their lack of talent inside. The Bulls are 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games following a ATS loss. Chicago is 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games as a road underdog. Bet the Bulls Sunday.

20* Mavs/Thunder NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City -2.5

I like the Oklahoma City Thunder to take care of business at home in Game 3 tonight as a small favorite against the Dallas Mavericks. OKC has been a solid home team all season, posting a 36-12 record there. They honestly have one of the best home-court advantages in the league as their fans cheer like a college crowd. It's very tough in there to function with the crowd noise and it's a big reason why road teams struggle. Dallas would normally have an edge off the bench, but they don't on the road. It's much easier for the Thunder get solid bench play at home.

After a 50-point performance from their bench in Game 2 in Dallas, OKC's role players come into this one with a ton of confidence. Dallas' bench has to be questioning itself after getting outplayed and outworked in Game 2. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. OKC is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Thunder are a solid 10-4-1 ATS int heir last 15 meetings with the Mavericks. Bet Oklahoma City Saturday.

20* Thunder/Mavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5

I am taking Oklahoma City in Game 2. The Dallas Mavericks could not have played a better game in Game 1, and the Thunder still had a chance in the end. Dallas won't play that well again, and Dirk Nowitzki and J.J. Barea will not combine to go 20-for-27 from the floor, and 27-for-27 from the line. Russell Westbrook had an off game, and he will not go 3-for-15 again. I am fully confident the Thunder is the play tonight getting 5.5 points in what will be a much closer game.

OKC is 30-14 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Thunder are 35-22 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. OKC is 11-2 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. OKC is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. OKC is 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* Heat/Bulls Game 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -2

The Chicago Bulls improved to 4-0 against Miami this season with their 103-82 victory in Game 1. I am taking the Bulls for the same reasons I took them in Game 1. Chicago presents the biggest match-up problem for Miami out of any team in the league. The Bulls have the players on the perimeter who can contain Lebron James and Dwyane Wade. Their biggest strengths are Miami's biggest weaknesses. Miami has no answer for Derrick Rose at point guard, and Chicago has a huge advantage inside with the likes of Noah, Gibson and Boozer who are all three better than any of Miami's inside players.

The Bulls' strategy was evident in Game 1, and it was genius to say the least. Chris Bosh had a big game because Chicago left him one on one, while constantly double-teaming Lebron James and Dwyane Wade. The Bulls will continue to make Bosh try and beat them while forcing James and Wade to take contested shots all game long. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Bulls are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Chicago is 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Thunder Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 193.5

Game 1 has proven to be a great place to take the OVER in the 2011 NBA playoffs. That's certainly the case with these teams, as the OVER is a combined 3-1 in the Game 1's that Dallas and Oklahoma City have played this postseason. OKC and Denver combined to score 210 points in Game 1 in the first round, and OKC and Memphis combined to put up 215 points in Game 1 of the second round. It's more tough to defend a team in a Game 1 because you really don't know exactly what to expect from them.

Plus, it's the start of a new series so many times both teams are playing at a frantic pace simply because nerves get the best of them. I like both the Thunder and Mavs to play at a very quick tempo tonight. These teams met up three times in the regular season, with combined scores of 194, 196 and 214 points. The OVER is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in Dallas, including 4-0 in the last four meetings there. The OVER is 10-2 in Mavericks last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* Grizzlies/Thunder Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 191.5

As this series has progressed, it has gotten even more low-scoring. With what's at stake in Game 7, you can bet points will be hard to come by once again Sunday. Game 4 was tied at 96-96 for 192 combined points before going into triple overtime, Game 5 saw 171 combined points in a 99-72 Thunder victory, and Game 6 saw 178 combined points in a 95-83 Grizzlies win.

Each of the last four games in this series were UNDER the total at the end of regulation. The pressure of a Game 7 like this for two young teams will get to these players. I don't expect either team to shoot the ball very well as they will be antsy. One thing is certain though, both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively. That will keep this one UNDER the posted number once again today. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

15* Thunder/Grizzlies Game 6 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -1.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have been overcoming expectations all season. This has been a very resilient bunch, and I believe they have what it takes to send this series to a Game 7 with a home victory Friday night. Memphis is 9-1 after a game with 15 or less assists this season. They obviously didn't show up for Game 5 in Oklahoma City, and do not want to go out that way with another sloppy performance. The Grizzlies have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA with a very rowdy crowd that rivals Oklahoma City. It will be easy for their energy level to be at 100% tonight.

Memphis is 18-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. Memphis is 31-13 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season. Both of these last two trends just go to show how resilient this team has been all season. Plus, the Grizzlies are 22-5 ATS off a road loss this season. While most people are writing off this team, I'm going the other way based one what they have shown up to this point. Look for a big game from Zach Randolph and key contributions from their bench as the Grizzlies feed off of their home crowd. Bet Memphis Friday.

15* Bulls/Hawks Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks have clearly overachieved in the playoffs. Their impressive run comes to a halt tonight as the Chicago Bulls put away this series. Chicago has only played up to their potential in three games in this series. They failed to really show up in Game 1 and Game 4. In the games they did show up, the Bulls won by 13 in Game 2, 17 in Game 3 and 12 in Game 5. No question they'll show up tonight with a chance to put away this series.

Chicago is 25-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Bulls are 54-37 ATS in all games this season, including 28-18 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Chicago is 20-9 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since 1996. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with the Bulls Thursday.

15* Grizzlies/Thunder Game 5 No-Brainer on Memphis +6.5

Odds makers have clearly inflated this line Wednesday. I know many say that it's going to be tough for Memphis to come back from a triple overtime loss, but this has been a resilient team all season and they'll have no problem coming back with another monster effort tonight. The Grizzlies are 59-32 ATS in all games this season. Memphis is 30-13 ATS as an underdog this season. This has been the best covering team in the league all year.

Proving that they are resilient is the fact that the Grizzlies are 31-12 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season. Better yet, Memphis is 22-7 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Grizzlies are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take Memphis in Game 5 Wednesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -8.5

The Chicago Bulls come out with their best effort of the series when they return home Tuesday for Game 5. Derrick Rose saw one team playing harder, chasing down loose balls and scoring easy baskets, and that would have been fine with him if not for one small problem. His team wasn't putting forth superior effort in Game 4. "They just played harder, getting to loose balls, second effort, chasing balls down," Rose said after a light practice and video session Monday.

Motivated from getting outworked in Game 4, the Bulls won't let it happen again in Game 5. "If anything, I think that all of us are mad with the effort that we put in the last game," he said. "It wasn't good enough. Tomorrow, we're playing back in our building. The atmosphere is going to be unbelievable, and we're just going to have to play." Chicago is 12-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Bulls are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with Chicago in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* Grizzlies/Thunder NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 198

While Game 1 and Game 2 were both shootouts, Game 3 played out much differently. The Grizzlies and Thunder played in a defensive battle in Game 3, which was tied 86-86 at the end of regulation and finished at 101-93 for 194 combined points and still went UNDER even with overtime. With so much at stake tonight, I fully expect another defensive battle as both teams clamp down defensively.

This play falls into a system that is 108-58 (65.1%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - in the 4th game of a playoff series. Another system that is 36-10 (78.3%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - in the 4th game of a playoff series. These 4th games in a series are always pivitol, and as a result the effort defensively is stepped up a notch. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Monday.

15* Lakers/Mavs NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles +2

I like the Lakers to avoid getting swept Sunday by winning outright at Dallas in Game 4. This team still hasn't lost confidence because of all of the success they have had over this past decade. Los Angeles still believes they can win this series, but also realize it won't be easy. The Lakers have always played their best with their backs against the wall. It's do or die for them today.

The Lakers are 56-36 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 35-50 ATS in home games over the past two seasons. The Lakers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Phil Jackson is 124-100 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Lakers. Roll with Los Angeles in Game 4 Sunday.

20* NBA Play of the Day on Oklahoma City Thunder +3

The Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly the superior team in this series, and they'll get home court advantage back tonight with a road win at Memphis. OKC is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games this season. The Thunder are 16-5 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season.

Oklahoma City is 34-19 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. the Grizzlies are clearly overvalued now after beating the Spurs in the first round and winning at road game at OKC. This provides value on the dog and the better team today. Take the Thunder Saturday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers +115

The Lakers have proven throughout the years that when they absolutely must have a win, they go out and get it. People are saying that their run is done, but I'm not buying it. The Lakers put it all together tonight in a must-win Game 3 and beat the Dallas Mavericks outright to get back in this series.

This play falls into a system that is 38-15 (71.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a upset loss as a favorite. The Lakers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The underdog is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings, and the road team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Bet the Lakers Friday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Bulls OVER 179.5

Odds makers have really lowered the totals in the 2011 playoffs in general. Once again, I'm finding value in the OVER tonight in the Hawks/Bulls Game 2. I had the OVER in Game 1 as well in a contest that saw 198 combined points in a 103-95 Atlanta victory. The last two meetings between these teams have now seen 195 and 198 points, respectively. Chicago hasn't been the same dominant defensive team they were in the regular season, and Atlanta has been much more efficient offensively in the playoffs.

All four Bulls home games in the playoffs have seen 186 or more combined points with totals of 203, 186, 205 and 198. Chicago is 20-7 to the OVER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 27-13 to the OVER off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in this series. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago. Roll with the OVER in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Heat NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on UNDER 182.5

While Game 1 has historically favored the OVER, Game 2 has been just the opposite. Every game in a series is crucial, but Game 2 is even more so. That's the reason that historically Game 2's are much lower-scoring. I really like the UNDER in this Game 2 tonight between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. These are two teams that are very familiar with one another, as they will be squaring off for the 6th time this season.

The first five meetings saw 168, 219, 167, 177 and 189 points, respectively. The refs were a little quick with their whistle's in Game 1, and I fully expect them to let the Heat and Celtics be a lot more physical in Game 2. That favors clearly favors the defenses. The UNDER is 14-2 in Celtics last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 20-7-1 in Celtics last 28 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Heat last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the UNDER in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Play of the Day on Hawks/Bulls OVER 178

Game 1 is normally a great spot to take the OVER in any series. Teams are amped up to get the series going, and many times this leads to a frenetic pace of play. With a total so low tonight, I see plenty of value in the OVER to pull the trigger. With a total of 189 in Game 1 of their series with Indiana, the Bulls and Pacers combined to score 203 points in a shootout. With a total of 181 in Game 1 of their series with Orlando, the Hawks and Magic combined to score 196 points.

I expect this trend to continue for both teams in Game 1 of this series. Both Game 1's went OVER the number Sunday in the Thunder/Grizzlies and Celtics/Heat series. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series, including 4-1 OVER in the last five meetings in Chicago. Simply put, odds makers have missed their mark in Game 1 as both teams will play at a quick pace tonight. Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Game 1 No-Brainer on Memphis Grizzlies +6.5

I am siding with the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 Sunday, a team that has been undervalued all season and in the playoffs as well. That's clearly evident by the fact that the Grizzlies are 57-29-2 ATS in all games this season. Memphis went 3-1 against Oklahoma City in their four meetings this year and they obviously match up very well with the Thunder.

The Grizzlies are 30-8-1 ATS in their last 39 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Memphis is 26-7-2 ATS in their last 35 games as an underdog. That includes a 21-6-1 ATS record in their last 28 as a road underdog. Memphis is 40-12-2 ATS in their last 54 vs. Western Conference. The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. OKC is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet Memphis Sunday.

15* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio +3

After such an emotional win over the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 5 where San Antonio was left for dead, I fully expect them to carry their momentum into a Game 6 road victory tonight. Gary Neal had to his a 3-pointer at the buzzer just to force overtime in Game 5, and the Spurs went on to win by 7 points. This team was clearly lacking confidence before stealing away that game from the Grizzlies, but they will have a ton of confidence now.

The Spurs are 8-1 ATS in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points this season. San Antonio is 26-16 ATS in all road games this season. The Spurs are 49-19 in all meetings with Memphis since 1996, including 22-12 in 34 road meetings. I have 100% confidence that the Spurs are going to send this series back to San Antonio because they are coming into Game 6 with the right frame of mind. This young Memphis team has to be scared and I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see a sloppy performance from them because of it. Take the Spurs in Game 6 Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -1.5

I'm taking Orlando in Game 6 Thursday to steal a road win from the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta failed to show up in Game 5, and as a result they have given the Magic a ton of confidence. The only thing the Magic were lacking in the first four games was confidence outside of Dwight Howard. Now, their shooters got going in Game 5 and I fully expect them to continue to light up the nets in Game 6.

The Magic went 11-of-26 from 3-point range in Game 5. Jason Richardson returned from a one-game suspension to his three, while Ryan Anderson also hit three and J.J. Redick hit a couple as well. Atlanta should have tried to end this series when they had a chance, instead of relying on having a home game left. The Hawks are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 34-16 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or less since 1996. Bet the Magic Thursday.

20* NBA Playoffs Wednesday No-Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -6.5

I really like the San Antonio Spurs tonight to win at home and get right back in this series. Memphis is a young team with very little playoff experience, and they don't know how to close a team out. Like Atlanta did last night, the Grizzlies will remember that they have a home game in their back pocket and will not be giving the same effort that has gotten them out to a 3-1 lead in this series. The veteran Spurs have been here before, and they will come out with their best effort of the series tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 40-16 (71.4%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. The Spurs are 11-3 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season. San Antonio is 33-12 ATS in home games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more since 1996. The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet San Antonio in Game 5 Wednesday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +9.5

As closely-contested as this series has been, the Chicago Bulls are way overvalued here in Game 5. Indiana could easily be tied 2-2 or ahead 3-1 right now had they executed down the stretch better. The Pacers have won the first three quarters throughout this series, and Indiana will give the Bulls a run for their money in Game 5 once again. All four games have been decided by six points or less.

Derrick Rose is going to play, but he's clearly not 100% with an ankle injury. Rose has never closed out a team in a series, so without having experienced that before I just don't see how the Bulls can be such heavy favorites tonight. Indiana is a scrappy team, and they sent a message in Game 4 that they weren't going out without a fight. I would not be surprised one bit to see them pull off the upset. The Bulls are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Pacers in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies TNT Game 4 No-Brainer on UNDER 189

I am siding with the UNDER in Game 4 between the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies. After a 199-point output in Game 1, these teams have played in a couple very low-scoring contests in Game 2 (180) and Game 3 (179). I expect this low-scoring trend to continue tonight in Game 4. As a series goes on, teams become more and more familiar with each other which greatly benefits the defenses.

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Spurs last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 home games. The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Memphis. The Grizzlies have been held to 39.8% and 42.3% shooting in their last two games, while the Spurs have been limited to 43.8% and 41.3% shooting in their last two games, respectively. I don't see either team lighting up the scoreboard tonight. Get ready for another defensive battle here. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Monday.

15* Magic/Hawks Game 4 No-Brainer on Orlando -2

I'll back the Orlando Magic in Game 4 tonight to even this series at 2-2. Orlando has struggled against the Atlanta Hawks this season, but they are clearly the superior team and will get their act together tonight. Losing Zaza Pachulia to a suspension is a huge loss for the Hawks, who already cannot stop Dwight Howard inside. Pachulia is arguably their best defender against Howard because he's physical.

The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Hawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as an underdog. Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Odds makers have the Magic favored for a reason today. They clearly feel Orlando is going to even up this series with a great effort in Game 4, and so do I. Roll with the Magic Sunday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder +5

I'll take the Thunder here catching points in Game 3 against a team they have absolutely owned. The Thunder are 4-0 in four meetings with the Denver Nuggets in April. All four meetings have taken place within the last three weeks. The Thunder have won by 7, 15, 4 and 17 points in those four meetings, respectively.

No team is playing better than Oklahoma City in the playoffs. This team has looked head and shoulders above the rest. They have two superstars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and they toughness they added in Kendrick Perkins inside has made the biggest difference. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. OKC is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Thunder are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Bet Oklahoma City Saturday.

15* Mavs/Blazers NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Dallas +4

The Dallas Mavericks get the call Saturday as an underdog to the Porltand Trail Blazers. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 ATS in this series thus far and should not be catching points in Game 4. This one is sure to go right down to the wire, which means there is a lot of value here with the underdog. The Mavericks are the deepest team in the league, and their depth off the bench helps them prevail tonight.

The Mavericks have been the best road team in the league this year. Dallas is 28-14 SU & 26-16 ATS in all road games this season. The Mavs are 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. The Mavericks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. The Blazers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite. Take the Mavs Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 191.5

Game 1 and Game 2 were both low-scoring and finished below the posted total tonight, and I expect Game 3 to follow suit. As a series progresses, games tend to get even more low-scoring. That's because teams become more familiar with each other, which hurts offensive execution and helps defensive execution. New York and Boston combined for 172 points in Game 1 and 189 points in Game 2. New York is going to struggle offensively tonight without Chauncey Billups or Amare Stoudemire at 100 percent. They will have to make up for it on the defensive end with even more effort.

Clearly, Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the league and will have no problem shutting down a Knicks team that is almost solely relying on Carmelo Anthony. Boston is 12-1 to the UNDER after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 18 or less fouls this season. The Celtics are 8-0 UNDER in road games after playing 3 consecutive games as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The UNDER is 10-1 in Celtics last 11 games following a win. Add these four trends up and we have a 35-2 (95%) System in favor of the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.