15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards ML -127

The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now.  They are playing a G League team due to all of their injuries.  Jaren Jackson Jr. and Vince Williams Jr. have been playing well to keep them competitive at times, but not both of those guys are out.  They have 10 players listed as out and another 3 players questionable heading into tonight with the worst injury report of any team.

The Washington Wizards continue to show up every night and are coming off consecutive wins over the Hornets by 12 at home and an upset win at Miami as 11.5-point dogs.  They have done their best work on the road going 21-12-1 ATS in their 34 road games.  They should make easy work of the depleted, unmotivated Grizzlies tonight.

Washington is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. Southwest Division opponents.  Memphis is 2-10 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Grizzlies are 0-9 ATS in home games against bad defensive teams that allow 48% or higher the last two seasons.  Bet the Wizards on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for revenge from a bad 79-73 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday.  They couldn't throw the ball in the ocean, hitting 32.5% as a team and 9-of-40 (22.5%) from 3-point range.  They won't shoot that poorly again, and there's a good chance OG Anunoby returns from injury tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 10-20 without him this season.  The 76ers are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well. It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 7-15 SU in their last 22 games overall and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games.  

They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs.  That was a rare win over the Knicks on Sunday without Embiid.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a favorite of 7 or more against an opponent that is off a road win are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on favorites (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a home favorite of 7 or more against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 209

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 8th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last six games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in five of those six games.  That includes their 98-74 slug fest against the Magic two games ago and their 79-73 loss to the 76ers last game.

The Philadelphia 76ers are an UNDER team in their current state because they are missing Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG) and De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG).  They are just finding it hard to score being held to 109 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games, including 99 or fewer five times.  The UNDER is 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams just combined for 152 points on Sunday, so we have a lot of margin for error here in the rematch taking this UNDER 209.  New York is 9-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  The Knicks are 11-3 UNDER in home games when revenging a loss this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks traded for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford and both are making significant contributions.  C Dereck Lively II returns tonight and is their best defender and a key contributor.  So the Mavericks are fully healthy heading into this game against the Chicago Bulls, and a dangerous team when that's the case.

This is a very tough spot for the Bulls.  They are coming off an impressive 4-game road trip in which they won their first three games over the Kings, Jazz and Warriors, but then blew a double-digit lead in a 10-point loss to the Clippers in the finale.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip.  This is a tired Bulls team playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

Dallas is 14-3 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Mavericks have done their best work on the highway against teams like the Bulls that they are supposed to beat.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls two games ago.  Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA.  The Warriors should not be favored on the road over the Spurs without him.

The Warriors are 81-146 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-4 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder, by 11 at the Bucks and by 13 at home to the Spurs despite being 11-point favorites last time out.

San Antonio has quietly gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and is still continuing to show up every night.  The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs two games ago despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat.  They beat the Warriors by 13 as 11-point dogs without both Wembenyama and Devin Vassell last time out.  Well, they are expected to get both Wembenyama and Vassell back for tonight's rematch.

Golden State is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 road games after losing two of its last three games coming in.  The Warriors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that wins 25% or less of their games on the season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns -6

This is a very tough spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are short-handed right now playing without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Dean Wade.  I don't think they'll have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.

I like the spot for the Suns coming off a tough home loss to Boston despite playing without Devin Booker.  But Booker makes his much anticipated return from injury tonight, and the Suns have been a dangerous team this season when Booker, Durant and Beal have been on the court at the same time.  They should handle the Cavaliers in this spot.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 211.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 9th in defensive rating.  They are missing key offensive pieced in Julius Randle and OG Anunoby right now so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  That includes their 98-74 slug fest against the Magic last time out.

The Philadelphia 76ers are an UNDER team in their current state because they are missing their top two scorers in Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG) and Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG) as well as De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG).  They are just finding it hard to score being held to 109 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games, including 99 or fewer four times.  The UNDER is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

New York is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -6.5

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-20 without him this season.  But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG).  Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well.

It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games overall and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games.  They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs.  They won't be able to hang with the Knicks on the road, either.

The Knicks just got Jalen Brunson back from injury and it made all the difference in a 98-74 home win over the Orlando Magic.  Brunson looked to be back to his former self scoring 26 points on 11-of-19 shooting including 4-of-7 from 3-point range.  This team goes as he goes, and they should make easy work of the short-handed 76ers tonight.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Bet the Knicks Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls last time out.  Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA.  Asking the Warriors to win this game by double-digits to beat us without Curry is asking too much.

San Antonio has quietly gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and is still continuing to show up every night.  The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs last game despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat.  Wembenyama doesn't mean nearly as much to this team as Curry does for the Warriors, and his absence is being factored into this line too much.  

The Warriors are 81-145 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-3 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder and by 11 at the Bucks.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Pistons OVER 234

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 9th in pace, 6th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating.  They are without their best defender right now in C Dereck Lively II (7.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG) and the Pistons should have a field day getting easy buckets at the rim without him.

The Mavericks and their opponents have gone for 236 or more combined points in seven of their last game games overall.  The lone exception was against a dead nuts under team in the Miami Heat who are also banged up.  

The Pistons have been playing a lot of good defensive and under teams here of late in the Nets, Heat, Magic (twice), Knicks, Cavs and Bulls in their last seven games.  Their last game against a team with a similar profile to Dallas was the Pacers eight games ago, and they went for 244 combined points.  The Pistons rank 29th in defensive rating this season.

Dallas is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Detroit is 12-2 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -1

Injuries have really hurt the New York Knicks here down the stretch.  The Knicks are 4-9 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a result with their four wins coming against the Pistons by 2, the Grizzlies, the short-handed 76ers and the short-handed Cavs.  They are coming off a 16-point home loss to the short-handed Hawks.

The Knicks have been without Julius Randle (24.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and OG Anunoby (15.6 PPG) during this entire stretch.  Jalen Brunson (27.2 PPG, 6.6 APG) has played in most of these games and he just cannot do it on his own.  But now Brunson is battling injury due to such a heavy workload.  He missed their last two games and is questionable to play tonight.

The Orlando Magic have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA this season.  The Magic are 37-26 SU & 40-21-2 ATS this season.  They are really rolling right now going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 15.8 points per game.  They are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.

Orlando is 19-5 ATS as a favorite this season.  New York is 12-21 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Magic should be bigger favorites given the circumstances tonight, but the Knicks continue to get respect when they shouldn't be.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season going 16-6 SU & 14-8 ATS in their last 22 road games.  They are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They beat Indiana by 27 at home and Toronto by 41 on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans couldn't be any fresher right now as not only did they have the All-Star Break, but they will now be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days tonight.  I expect them to make easy work of the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers in this one.

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-19 without him this season.  But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player as well in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG).  Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well.

It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games overall and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games.  They just lost by 6 at home to the Grizzlies as 5.5-point favorites in their last game.  It won't get any easier tonight against the Pelicans.

New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games while consistently being overvalued at home.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

20* Celtics/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Nuggets are 14-4-1 UNDER in their last 19 games overall.  That push came against the Suns last game with a total of 224 that went to OT and was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for 204 combined points.

What makes the Nuggets such an UNDER team is that they rank 27th in the NBA in pace and like to really slow it down.  They also rank 9th in defensive rating.  They face a Boston Celtics team that ranks 2nd in defensive rating tonight, so these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.

That played out in their first meeting this season as the Nuggets beat the Celtics 102-100 for just 202 combined points.  The Nuggets even shot 51.9% from the field in that game as it was played at a snail's pace.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight with the defensive intensity being very high for this potential NBA Finals preview.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five games overall.  Denver is 11-2 UNDER in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Bucks/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5

Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach.  The Bucks are 14-1-1 UNDER in their last 16 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in 10 consecutive games.

The Bucks rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well.  The Bucks could be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again tonight after he missed the last game with an Achilles injury and looked seriously injured in warmups.  But they have been a dead nuts UNDER team with or without Giannis.

The UNDER is 12-2 in Warriors last 14 games overall.  They have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting their most important defender in Draymond Green back from injury.  They have gone UNDER the total in seven consecutive games now.

Golden State is 14-2 UNDER after winning three of its last four games this season.  Milwaukee is 8-0 UNDER in non-conference road games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks ML -121

This play is more of a fade of the Cleveland Cavaliers than anything.  Cleveland is in a massive letdown spot after coming back from 22 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Boston Celtics 105-104 last night.  Now the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

Not to mention, Cleveland is already short-handed without two of its best players in Donovan Mitchell (28.0 PPG) and Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG), plus Max Strus (12.2 PPG) is questionable after sitting out last night.  That's three of their top six scorers.  The Cavaliers will have nothing left in the tank for tonight.

Atlanta has a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Nets for the final play-in spot in the East.  The Hawks have shown some fight going 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games with blowout wins over Orlando by 17, Utah by 27 and New York by 16.  The Hawks will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but that factor is lessened by the fact that they had two days off prior to beating the Knicks 116-100 last night.  They are much healthier and much deeper than the Cavaliers right now as well.

Plays on home favorites (Atlanta) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a winning team are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Atlanta is favored for good reason tonight.  Bet the Hawks on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Wizards OVER 223.5

The Orlando Magic have gone under the total in six consecutive games.  Because of this, we now have the opportunity to 'buy low' on an OVER in a game involving the Magic.  Now they face a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Wizards and Magic with 225 or more combined points in all six.  The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings this season with 246, 255 and 259 combined points.  Those three totals were all set at 235.5 points or higher, and now this total is 12 points lower than that at 223.5.  That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Heat UNDER 217.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Heat are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They rank 28th in pace, 8th in defensive rating and 21st in offensive rating this season.  They are missing key scorers in Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now as well to make them even more of an UNDER team.

The Detroit Pistons have become a dead nuts UNDER team since the trade deadline and losing their best shooter in Bogdanovic to the Knicks.  The Pistons are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall.  They have gone for 200, 210 and 214 combined points in their last three games.  They are struggling to find offense outside Cunningham and Ivey, and they are built for defense right now starting Duren, Thompson and Stewart inside.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Detroit and Miami with 212 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach.  The Bucks are 13-1-1 UNDER in their last 15 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in nine consecutive games.

The Bucks rank 5th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well.  They face a Clippers team that ranks 21st in pace and 12th in defensive rating.  It's a Clippers team without Russell Westbrook right now.

The Clippers are coming off a 89-88 road win at Minnesota last night that saw just 177 combined points.  They will now be a tired team and could elect to rest some guys.  They won't be looking to push the tempo at all playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Clippers and Bucks have combined for 225 and 211 points in their last two meetings, which both went UNDER the total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Thunder/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -5.5

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They are coming off an upset road loss at San Antonio in one of their worst performances of the season.  They had gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their previous ix games with all six wins coming by 13 points or more.  They simply had a letdown and may have been looking ahead to this game against Phoenix.

Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest.  The Suns are a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-109 loss to the Rockets on Saturday.  They lost Devin Booker to injury in that defeat and I have to think he is out for this one as well.  Plus, Jusuf Nurkic, Royce O'Neale and Eric Gordon are all questionable.  Kevin Durant is tired and Bradley Beal is not playing full minutes yet.  The Suns are a mess right now.

Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 130 points or more.  Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after three or more consecutive unders.  The Suns are 0-8 ATS in home games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Knicks/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Knicks and Cavaliers with 201 or fewer combined points in all seven meetings.  Both teams have some key injuries right now that are hampering them offensively as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Warriors/Celtics ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 230.5

The UNDER is 11-2 in Warriors last 13 games overall.  They have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting their most important defender in Draymond Green back from injury.  Now Stephen Curry and Brandon Podziemski are questionable to play today, and Andrew Wiggins is out, so points could be very hard to come by for the Warriors.

The Celtics rank 3rd in defensive rating and may be without Kristaps Porzingis today.  Boston isn't looking to push the pace either ranking 19th in pace.

Golden State is 13-2 UNDER after winning three of its last four games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -7.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and are fully healthy for basically the first time all season.  The Mavericks have three road losses to Indiana, Boston and Cleveland during this stretch, but they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home with all four wins coming by 8 points or more including a 35-point win over OKC and a 10-point win over Phoenix.

The 76ers are 26-8 with Joel Embiid and 8-17 without him.  They have gone 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall and have been grossly overvalued without him.  Not to mention, they are without another key scorer in De'Anthony Melton right now, while Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable.  I just can't see them being able to keep pace with the Mavericks today.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles PK

The Los Angeles Lakers know the playoffs are approaching and are playing with a sense of urgency.  They are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games overall with one of those losses coming to the Nuggets.  It was their 2nd loss to the Nuggets this season, and they were swept by them in the Western Conference Finals last year in four games that all went down to the wire.

It's safe to say the Lakers will be highly motivated for revenge tonight.  I like them to get their revenge considering they are about as healthy as they have been all season, while the Nuggets have some key injury concerns.  Jamal Murray was forced from their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable to play tonight.  Fellow starter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is questionable as well.  That is two key scorers they could be without, but I like the Lakers to get it done either way.

Denver is 3-11 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Lakers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games.  Los Angeles is 20-9 SU at home this season.  Denver is 17-14 SU & 12-18-1 ATS on the road.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

20* Bucks/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5

Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach.  The Bucks are 12-1-1 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in eight consecutive games, including 220 or fewer in seven of them.  

The Bucks rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well.  Now they take on a Chicago Bulls team that doesn't like to run at all.  The Bulls rank 29th in the NBA in pace this season.

Chicago is 3-2 UNDER in its last five games overall and would be 4-1 if not going to double-OT against the Cavaliers last time out.  The Bulls have gone for 220 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in four of their last five games.

Chicago is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games off two consecutive division games.  The Bucks are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Milwaukee is 12-1 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or higher.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pacers/Pelicans OVER 238

The Indiana Pacers are fully healthy right now and an elite offensive team when that's the case.  They face another fully healthy New Orleans Pelicans team tonight that is also an elite offensive team when that's the case.  This one has shootout written all over it.

These teams just met on Wednesday with the Pacers winning 123-114 at home for 237 combined points.  But that was a bad spot for the Pelicans playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, so they were tired and did not shoot it particularly well in a game that was played at a break-neck pace.  Both teams will be fresh after having yesterday off and will shoot it better in the rematch tonight that should also be played at a break-neck pace again.

New Orleans is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 home games off an ATS loss.  Any total below 240 in a game involving the Pacers who rank 2nd in pace and 2nd in offensive rating this season is rare.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Mavs/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 237.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team when Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are on the court at the same time.  They rank 8th in pace and 6th in offensive rating this season, but those numbers are even better with these two on the court.  They have been for their last four games and have combined for 251, 240, 244 and 236 points with their opponents in their first four games back from the All-Star Break.

Now the Mavericks face a Boston Celtics team that ranks 1st in offensive rating this season and is the best offensive team in the game when fully healthy, which is the case right now.  This one has shootout written all over it between these two elite offensive teams.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 OVER in road games when revenging a home loss this season.  Boston is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards last game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/76ers UNDER 214.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts UNDER team right now.  Charlotte is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in nine consecutive games, including 213 or fewer in six of those.  The Hornets have allowed an average of 103.1 points per game in their last eight games, and they have scored an average of just 90.3 points per game in their last four, which is atrocious in today's NBA.

The Philadelphia 76ers have really been struggling offensively without Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG).  They have scored 104 or fewer points in five consecutive games and an average of 100.2 points per game during this stretch.  Now they just lost another key scorer in De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG) to injury.  Points will be hard to come by for both teams tonight.

Charlotte is 32-11 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 217 or fewer combined points in four of the five, and 208 or fewer in three of them.  They combined for 186 points in their most recent meeting this season in January 20th.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall and continue to show up every night.  They followed up their tough 113-111 loss at New York as 11.5-point dogs with a 105-95 upset as 10.5-point dogs at Chicago on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Now the Pistons have had the last two days off and are fresh and ready to give the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money.

Cleveland has been grossly overvalued of late going 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Donovan Mitchell is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury and is unlikely to go.  This is a tired Cavaliers team that will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  Asking them to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Detroit will be playing with triple revenge this season losing the first three meetings to the Cavaliers by 7, 9 and 8 points.  The Pistons don't want to get swept, and if they do a 9-point loss or less works for us.

The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days.  The Pistons are 18-9 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* Wizards/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a brutal spot tonight.  They came back from 21 points down in the 4th quarter to beat their hated rivals in the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  It was the largest comeback of LeBron James' career in the 4th quarter, and he was the catalyst.

Now the Lakers are a very tired team with James questionable to play tonight in the 2nd of a back-to-back.  He played 37 minutes, Anthony Davis 36, Russell 34 and Reaves 36 last night.  They aren't a very deep team right now due to missing Wood, Vincent and Vanderbilt as well.

The Wizards will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the Lakers on the road.  They have played their best basketball on the road this season going 19-10-1 ATS in road games.  They had yesterday off and took both the Cavaliers and Warriors to the wire in their last two games, so they have been competitive and have not quit.

The Lakers are 1-10 ATS off a road win this season.  Washington is 11-2 ATS in road games after going under the total in its previous game this season.  The Wizards are a perfect 11-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

20* Heat/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Miami +5

The Miami Heat want revenge after losing 4-1 in the NBA Finals to the Denver Nuggets last season.  This is their first chance at revenge in the 2023-24 season, and I expect them to take advantage now that they are playing their best basketball of the season, plus the fact that they have the rest advantage.

The Heat are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone losses coming by 4 to Boston and by 8 to the Clippers.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six road games including upset wins at Milwaukee by 26 as 8-point dogs, at Philadelphia by 5 as 3-point dogs, at New Orleans by 11 as 3-point dogs and at Sacramento by 11 as 7.5-point dogs.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a very weak schedule.  Their lone impressive win was at Golden State, but they also beat Washington and Portland and Sacramento without De'Aaron Fox.  The Nuggets needed a comeback win last night against the Kings, and Jamal Murray is questionable to play tonight after scoring 32 points on 13-of-15 shooting.  I'll gladly fade the Nuggets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Spurs OVER 236

The OVER is 7-2-1 in Thunder last 10 games overall with 236 or more combined points in seven of their last nine games.  They have combined for 232 or more points with nine of their last 10 opponents.  They rank 3rd in offensive rating this season.

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  The Spurs and their opponents have combined for 237 or more points in three of their last four games coming out of the All-Star Break.  The lone exception was against the Timberwolves, who are a dead nuts UNDER team being the best defensive team in the NBA.

These teams met earlier this year with the Thunder winning 140-114 on January 24th for 254 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.

San Antonio is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 home games off three or more consecutive road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Warriors/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 223

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace and 11th in defensive rating this season.  They are missing Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, plus Jalen Brunson is questionable with a neck injury to really hamper them offensively right now.  They have scored 113 or fewer points in seven consecutive games, including 92 against the Pelicans without Brunson last time out.

The Golden State Warriors are playing much better defensively since getting Draymond Green back from suspension.  The Warriors are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They have allowed 112 or fewer points in 10 of those 14 games.  They are without Andrew Wiggins right now which hurts them offensively.  The UNDER is 19-11 in New York's 30 home games this season, which are averaging 220.3 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Hornets UNDER 218.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the Bucks and Hornets in two weeks.  The first two stayed well UNDER their totals with 204 and 208 combined points, and it will be more of the same in the 3rd meeting tonight.

Both the Hornets and Bucks are dead nuts UNDER teams right now.  The Hornets have allowed an average of 102 points per game in their last seven games, which is unheard of in today's NBA.  Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Bucks interim head coach.

The Bucks are 11-1-1 UNDER in their last 13 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in seven consecutive games, including 220 or fewer in six of them.  Charlotte is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in eight consecutive games.

Charlotte is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +3

The Toronto Raptors have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 to Indiana going into the break.  They have come out of the break on fire with a 28-point win over Brooklyn as 1-point home favorites, a 2-point win at Atlanta as 8-point dogs and an 8-point win at Indiana as 5.5-point dogs.

The Raptors are still very much alive for the play-in in the Eastern Conference trailing the reeling Hawks and Bulls.  They are playing with a fire under their belly to try and make it.  The Raptors have a big rest advantage over the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Raptors, who are fully healthy right now.

Dallas will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd road game in 4 days.  The Mavericks will have to try and get back up off the mat after losing on a half court buzzer-beater to the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.  Luke Doncis played 41 minutes and had 45 points, 14 assists and 9 rebounds while Kyrie Irving played 39 minutes and scored 30 points, and it still wasn't enough.  I question how much these two and the Mavericks have left in the tank tonight.

Toronto is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games off two consecutive road games.  Dallas is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 non-conference games.  Toronto has pulled the outright upset in each of its last two meetings with Dallas, including on the road earlier this season.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +14.5

The Charlotte Hornets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Warriors by 13 as 12.5-point dogs.  The Warriors got a layup in the final seconds to cover when they could have ran out the shot clock.

The point is the Hornets are a team that keeps fighting.  They have won all five of those games outright as underdogs beating Memphis 115-106 as 5-point dogs, Indiana 111-102 as 10-point dogs, Atlanta 122-109 as 7-point dogs, Utah 115-107 as 10-point dogs and Portland 93-80 as 3.5-point dogs.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are coming off two consecutive huge road wins over the Timberwolves and 76ers.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Hornets, who they just blew out at home in early February.  But this is a different Hornets team now, and they will be the more motivated team for revenge.  Getting 14.5 points here is too much.

Charlotte is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 105 points or fewer last game.  The Hornets are playing elite defense right now holding their last six opponents to an average of 98.5 points per game, which is unheard of in today's NBA.  Bet the Hornets Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks UNDER 221.5

Both the Hornets and Bucks are dead nuts UNDER teams right now.  The Hornets have allowed an average of 98.5 points per game in their last six games, which is unheard of in today's NBA.  Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Bucks interim head coach.

The Bucks are 10-1-1 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in six consecutive games, including 220 or fewer in five of them.  Charlotte is 5-0 UNDER in its last five games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in seven consecutive games.

The Hornets and Bucks played earlier this month and combined for just 204 points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch with how these teams are playing currently.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They are coming off two consecutive upset home losses to the Heat and Bulls.  But they have played their best basketball on the road this season, and they will be happy to get to play at Madison Square Garden tonight.

The Pelicans are 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  They have a big rest advantage tonight after having yesterday off.  Meanwhile, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing a basket in the final seconds to beat the Pistons 113-111 as 11.5-point home favorites on Monday.

The Knicks have been struggling lately due to all the injuries that have mounted up.  The Knicks are 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are without three of their best players in Randle, Anunoby and Robinson.  Josh Hart played 42 minutes, Jalen Brunson 40 and Dante ViVincenzo 32 last night.  The Knicks won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Knicks UNDER 218.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the New Orleans Pelicans visit the New York Knicks.  The Pelicans rank 6th in defensive rating this season while the Knicks rank 9th.  The Knicks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season, and will control the tempo playing at home.

The Knicks and their opponents have combined for 118 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall.  They are struggling offensively right now scoring 113 points or fewer in nine of their last 10 games overall.  They are struggling because they are short-handed without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby right now.

The Pelicans also have injury concerns of their own with both Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum questionable, plus Jose Alvarado out due to suspension.  The UNDER is 8-4 in Pelicans last 12 games overall.  The Pelicans beat the Knicks 96-87 in their first meeting this season that saw just 183 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

New York is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points pre game in the 2nd half of the season.  The Knicks are 8-1 UNDER in  home games when revenging a road loss this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks PK

It's addition by subtraction for the Atlanta Hawks.  They have actually been better without Trae Young than with him this season.  They proved it again last time out with a 109-92 home win over the Orlando Magic last time out.  They are certainly much better defensively without Young, and Dejounte Murray plays better when he is running the offense rather than playing off the ball.

The Utah Jazz are a mess right now going 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming at home over the lowly San Antonio Spurs.  They lost by 8 as 10-point favorites to the Hornets, by 3 to the Warriors who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, by 16 at home to the Lakers, by 22 at home to the Warriors and by 14 at Phoenix.  They are all but eliminated from playoff contention because they would have to chase down the Warriors or Lakers for the final two play-in spots, which they know isn't happening.

The Jazz are 9-20 SU & 13-16 ATS on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 10.0 points pre game.  Atlanta is trying to fend off two teams for the final play-in spot in the East.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +2.5

Finding teams like the Memphis Grizzlies who are out of playoff contention but continue to show up and fight every night is one key to winning in the NBA late in the season.  The Grizzlies are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games taking both New Orleans and the Clippers to the wire in two losses, while also upsetting both Houston and Milwaukee.

Finding teams like the Brooklyn Nets who seem to care less about winning games and fading them is also one key to winning in the NBA late in the season.  The Nets are 8-25 SU & 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Their last three games were very concerning.  They lost by 50 at Boston, by 28 at Toronto and by 15 at Minnesota.  They aren't even trying right now, and they should not be favored over the Grizzlies, who at least get after it defensively ranking 10th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games off three or more consecutive home games.  Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games after losing six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Nets are 2-14 ATS in road games vs. teams who shoot 24 or fewer free throws per game.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams that shoot 21 or fewer free throws per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

15* Kings/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 239

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Kings are 7-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 238 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  The OVER is 3-1 in their last four meetings with the Clippers with 248, 255 and 351 combined points in the three OVERS.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

The Charlotte Hornets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Warriors by 13 as 12.5-point dogs.  The Warriors got a layup in the final seconds to cover when they could have ran out the shot clock.

The point is the Hornets are a team that keeps fighting.  They have won all four of those games outright as underdogs beating Memphis 115-106 as 5-point dogs, Indiana 111-102 as 10-point dogs, Atlanta 122-109 as 7-point dogs and Utah 115-107 as 10-point dogs.

Now the Hornets take on a hapless Portland Trail Blazers that has no business being favored over them in their current state.  The Blazers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games overall losing all seven games by 6 points or more, and six by 9 points or more.  They are without Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe right now and struggling to score without these guys.  They have scored 112 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being 122 against the Pistons in OT.

Portland is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  Charlotte is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 road games after allowing 105 points or less.  The Hornets are only allowing 102.2 points per game in their last five games and are getting after it defensively.  Bet the Hornets Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Jazz OVER 241

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  The Jazz have allowed at least 129 points in four of their last five games overall.  They face another dead nuts OVER team tonight in the San Antonio Spurs, who rank 4th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.

The Jazz and Spurs met once earlier this season with the Jazz winning 130-118 for 248 combined points.  They also combined for 245 points in their final meeting last season.  This total of 241 is too short for this game tonight.

Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Utah) - after getting beating by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a losing team are 26-8 (76.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State Warriors +1

The Golden State Warriors are motivated to make the playoffs.  They are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming to the Clippers.  The Clippers rallied from a double-digit deficit in the 4th quarter after Tyron Lue was ejected and they couldn't miss from 3 down the stretch.

The Warriors also want some revenge on the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  They are 0-3 SU against the Nuggets this season losing by 3, 3 and 6 points.  They have been close, but they haven't been able to get over the hump.  Now I fully expect them to get over the hump and avoid the season sweep.

The Nuggets have two starters questionable to play in this one in Jamaal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.  This isn't a very deep team as it is, so missing one or both would be big.  But I like the Warriors to get the job done either way.

Golden State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games off two consecutive covers as a favorite.  Plays against favorites (Denver) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent that is coming off a game with a combined score of 185 points or less are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Wizards OVER 232.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  They have allowed 147, 130 and 133 points in their last three games overall coming into this one.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have played their first two games out of the break without MVP candidate Donovan Mitchell due to illness.  But they get back Mitchell tonight and should hang a big number on the Wizards.  They have scored 114 points or more in six of their previous seven games with Mitchell in the lineup.  He has scored 27 or more points in six of his last seven games as well.

Washington is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games off four or more consecutive road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Celtics/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on New York +6.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks and 'sell high' on the Boston Celtics.  The Knicks went into the All-Star Break going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their final six games.  But their struggles were largely due to injuries to Brunson, DiVincenzo and Hartenstein.  All three came back from the break healthy.

I successfully backed the Knicks on the ML as underdogs in a 110-96 win at Philadelphia in their first game back from the break.  And now I'm back on them as 6.5-point home dogs to the Celtics as they still look undervalued in the market place.

Boston is the consensus best team in the NBA.  But with that consensus comes expectations that are hard to live up to.  You're paying a tax on the Celtics right now due to having the best record in the NBA and being on a 7-game winning streak.  But Boston is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall, and if they manage to win this game, it will go down to the wire against the feisty Knicks.

New York is 12-2 ATS in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  Boston is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games off two consecutive covers as favorites.  The Knicks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +13

One key to winning in the NBA is finding undervalued teams out of the playoff hunt that continue to play hard every night.  One of those teams is the Charlotte Hornets.  The Hornets have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  

That includes 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with outright upset victories over Memphis by 9 as 5-point dogs, over Indiana by 9 as 10-point dogs, by 23 over Atlanta as 7-point dogs and by 8 over Utah as 10-point dogs.  This is a young team that has not quit, and the players they traded for are making an immediate impact and playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Golden State is overvalued off a 128-110 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers last night.  They wanted revenge on the Lakers after losing 145-144 (OT) at home to them in their previous meeting and they got it.  But keep in mind it was without LeBron James.  Plus, this is now a huge sandwich spot for them with defending champion Denver on deck at home on Sunday that they could be looking ahead to.  I don't think we get a max effort from the Warriors, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 13-point spread.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +9.5

One key to winning in the NBA is finding undervalued teams out of the playoff hunt that continue to play hard every night.  One of those teams is the Memphis Grizzlies.  They went into the All-Star Break covering three straight including outright upsets over Houston 121-113 as 3-point home dogs and Milwaukee 113-110 as 12-point home dogs the very next night on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Everyone is talking about the Los Angeles Clippers winning the NBA title right now.  As a result, the Clippers are overvalued.  They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 107-129 loss in Oklahoma City last night.  Asking them to win by double-digits on the road to beat us here is asking too much.

The Clippers are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Los Angeles is 9-18 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Grizzlies are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games when playing with double revenge.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Thunder OVER 241.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 6-0-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 10th in pace and 4th in offensive rating.  Now they face another dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Wizards and Thunder with 237 or more combined points in all four.  That includes a 136-128 win by the Thunder in their first meeting this season for 264 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch tonight.

The Thunder are 21-6 OVER in their last 27 games off a home win by 10 points or more.  Washington is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5

I love the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to the Orlando Magic last night, who have been the best covering team in the NBA and are grossly undervalued.  But the Cavaliers also didn't have their best player in Donovan Mitchell due to illness in that loss.

My best guess is Mitchell returns tonight, but I like the Cavaliers either way.  I'll gladly fade the 76ers again like I did with the Knicks easily cashing on the Knicks ML +100 in a 110-96 victory over the 76ers in a game that wasn't even that close.

The Philadelphia 76ers remain without Joel Embiid and the difference between being with or without him has been drastic for this team.  The 76ers are 26-8 with Embiid in the lineup but just 6-15 without him.  They should not be getting this much respect tonight without him.

Cleveland is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Cavaliers are 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets quietly went 5-1 ATS in their final six games going into the All-Star Break.  That includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three games with outright upset victories over Memphis by 9 as 5-point dogs, over Indiana by 9 as 10-point dogs and by 23 over Atlanta as 7-point dogs.  This is a young team that has not quit, and the players they traded for are making an immediate impact.

The Utah Jazz went 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games going into the break to all but play themselves out of playoff contention.  Three of the four losses came by 14 points or more.  I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they are so poor defensively that they cannot be laying double-digits to Charlotte tonight.  They have allowed 129 or more points in four consecutive games.

Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less.  Utah is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - a poor team that is outscored by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hornets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +15.5

The Washington Wizards have been a great bet on the road this season.  They have gone 19-8-1 ATS in their 28 road games as one of the best covering teams on the highway in the NBA this season.  They are consistently catching too many points away from home, and that's the case again tonight as 15.5-point dogs at Denver.

The Nuggets have been kind of bored just waiting for the playoffs to get here.  The defending champs are having that dreaded title hangover.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 29 at Sacramento, by 17 at Milwaukee and by 4 at home to Sacramento in the rematch in a game you would have expected them to fire back in.  The Nuggets are now just 8-16-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.

Washington is 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games this season.  The Wizards are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 road games off a non-conference game.  Washington is 7-0 ATS in road games off five or more consecutive losses this season.  Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. poor teams that are outscoring by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder ML -114

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 PPG, 6.5 APG) is the 2nd favorite to win the NBA MVP award currently.  He holds a grudge with the Los Angeles Clippers for trading him away, so he has his best stuff every time he faces his former team.  The Thunder are a legit title contender with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way and tremendous depth.  I expect the Thunder to make easy work of the Clippers tonight.

The Thunder are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Clippers.  They won 134-115 in their lone home meeting this season.  The Thunder are 21-6 SU & 18-9 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.

Oklahoma City is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Bet the Thunder on the Money Line Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks ML +100

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks coming out of the All-Star Break.  They went into the break going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their final six games.  But the struggles were mostly due to injuries as they were playing without Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Isaiah Hartenstein and Bojan Bogdanovic at various times.  All four are healthy and expected to play coming out of the break.

The Philadelphia 76ers remain without Joel Embiid and the difference between being with or without him has been drastic for this team.  The 76ers are 26-8 with Embiid in the lineup but just 6-14 without him.  They should not be favored over the Knicks tonight without him.

Plays on any team (New York) - after losing five or six of its last seven games, a good team (60-75%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-15 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks on the Money Line Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

I like the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They will want revenge from a 121-109 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge at home again, and they go from 7.5-point dogs to 9.5-point dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjusment.

The Timberwolves are looking ahead to the All-Star Break and want nothing to do with this game tonight.  They won't be motivated at all to beat the Blazers again, which will make it difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it is going to take to beat us tonight.

We saw the Blazers in a similar spot less than a week ago.  They lost by 12 in Denver as 12.5-point dogs and only lost by 9 to the Nuggets in the rematch as 14.5-point dogs.  Minnesota is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after covering 5 or 6 of its last seven games.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz OVER 239.5

The Golden State Warriors are really clicking offensively right now.  They have scored 119 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  I expect them to top that number tonight to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 239.5 bet.

The Utah Jazz have scored at least 120 points in 15 of their last 19 games overall.  I expect them to top that number as well.  The Jazz have been atrocious defensively, allowing 138, 129 and 129 points in their last three games overall.  They have simply quit playing defense heading into the All-Star Break.

Both teams will be tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in altitude tonight.  I think it will affect their defensive effort more than anything.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Clippers/Warriors OVER 234

The Golden State Warriors are really clicking offensively right now.  They have scored 119 or more points in nine of their last 11 games overall.  I expect them to top that number tonight to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 234 bet.

The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard, but his loss is felt more defensively than anything as he is one of their best defenders.  This isn't a very good defensive team without him with guys like James Harden, Paul George and Russell Westbrook playing more minutes.  The Clippers will get their points as they are loaded offensively, scoring 118.0 points per game overall and 118.8 points per game on the road.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in three of those four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on Golden State -2.5

The Golden State Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road in OT at Atlanta.  They have home wins over the Suns and 76ers, as well as road wins over the Grizzlies by 20, the Nets by 11, the 76ers by 24, the Pacers by 22 and the Jazz by 22.  These games haven't even been close.

The Los Angeles Clippers are limping into the All-Star Break having gone 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were upset by the Pelicans at home by 11 as 6-point favorites, only beat the Pistons by 6 as 17-point home favorites and lost by 21 at home to the Timberwolves as 4.5-point favorites.

Now the Clippers will be without their best player in Kawhi Leonard (24.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.7 APG) tonight.  This team goes as Leonard goes, and I don't expect them to put up much of a fight without him tonight.

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series.  Indeed, the home team is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 219.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts UNDER team without all of their top scorers right now due to injury.  Memphis is 18-7 UNDER in its 25 home games which have seen an average of just 215.3 combined points per game.  The Grizzlies have been held to 113 or fewer points in 14 consecutive games now.

The Rockets are also missing two key players in Fred VanVleet (16.5 PPG, 8.2 APG) and Cam Whitmore (11.9 PPG).  They have been held to 105 or fewer points in five of their last nine games overall.  The Grizzlies rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating while the Rockets rank 23rd.

Memphis is 10-2 UNDER in home games off two or more consecutive losses this season.  Houston is 13-5 UNDER off a home win this season.  The Rockets are 30-14 UNDER in their last 44 games following a win overall.  The Grizzlies are 8-1 UNDER in home games against teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +13.5

I like the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 118-110 home loss to the Boston Celtics last night.  Now they come back as 13.5-point dogs on the road in the rematch tonight.  The Celtics won't be very motivated to beat this team again, which will make it difficult for them to cover this inflated number.

All five starters for the Celtics played at least 35 minutes last night.  They aren't as deep as the Nets, who will have an advantage in this 2nd of a back-to-back situation with four of their five starters playing 34 minutes or fewer, and three playing 28 or fewer last night.

Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following a win where it didn't cover the spread.  The Celtics are 5-13 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season.  Boston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall and grossly overvalued over the last couple weeks.  The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a letdown spot coming off two consecutive upset road wins over the Bucks and Clippers.  They beat the Clippers 121-100 last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  I can't see them being all that motivated to beat the Blazers tonight after upsetting the Clippers, and they are definitely the more tired team.

The Blazers have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  They are expected to get Anfernee Simons (23.4 PPG, 5.3 APG) back from injury, and he means everything to their success.  They also have Jerami Grant (21.9 PPG) and De'Andre Ayton (13.9 PPG, 10.4 RPG) healthy and could get back Scoot Henderson (12.8 PPG, 4.6 APG), who is questionable.

The Blazers have been competitive in seven consecutive games not once losing by more than 12 points and with only one loss by double-digits.  This despite battling through injuries to several of their key players.  I love the spot for the Blazers with the rest advantage, and they are 42-12 SU in their last 54 home meetings with the Timberwolves to boot.

Minnesota is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after covering five or six of their last seven games.  Plays against favorites (Minnesota) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 185 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Timberwolves.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Magic OVER 223

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace and 5th in offensive rating.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Thunder last five games overall with 232 or more combined points in all five games.  This 223-point total is very low for a game involving the Thunder right now.

The Magic are more of an under team, but they have gone OVER in three consecutive games and are fully healthy right now.  They have gone 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall as well.  The books continue to set their totals too low.  They won't mind getting up and down with the Thunder in this one.

The first meeting between the Thunder and Magic this season the total was set at 232, so this total is 9 points less and there's value as a result.  Both teams shot terribly in that first meeting which is why it stayed under.  The Thunder shot 7-of-35 (20%) from 3-point range while the Magic shot 8-of-36 (22.2%).  Both teams are due for some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Orlando is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games after winning four of its last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah Jazz ML +105

The Utah Jazz have been the best covering team at home in the NBA this season.  They are 17-7 SU & 18-5-1 ATS at home and have knocked off many of the top contenders in the league.  They should not be home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors tonight.

I love the spot for the Jazz coming in on three days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  I hate the spot for the Warriors coming off a 113-112 home win over the Suns where Steph Curry won it with a 3-pointers just before the buzzer.  This is now a letdown spot for the Warriors, who will also be playing in their 7th different city in 11 days and in altitude to boot.  This is a tired team right now ripe for the upset.

Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games after losing four or five of its last six games this season.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The home team is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Mavs OVER 247

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team when they have Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic on the court at the same time.  They are two of the best scorers in the NBA, but they are also two of the worst defenders.  The Mavericks rank 7th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating this season while playing at the 8th-fastest tempo.

They face another dead nuts OVER team here in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  But the Wizards are a pretty good offensive team with all of their young guards.  They lost a 129-133 shootout in Boston in their last road game for 262 combined points.  The Mavericks are coming off a 146-111 home win over the Thunder for 257 combined points.

Washington is 32-12 OVER in its last 44 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game, including 13-2 OVER in their last 15 in the 2nd half of the season.  Dallas is 16-6 OVER against teams with losing records this season.  These teams have combined for 247 and 253 points in their last two meetings, and the OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Nuggets/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their first six games with Doc Rivers.  But it was largely due to a brutal schedule and some injuries.  They played five straight road games and came home and lost to Minnesota.

But the Bucks bounced back with a 120-84 home win over the Hornets on the 2nd of a back-to-back in Damian Lillard's return from injury.  Now they have had the last two days off to rest and recover, and now they want revenge from a 107-113 road loss at Denver on January 29th in Rivers' first game.

The Bucks go from 4-point road dogs at Denver in that meeting to 2-point home dogs in the rematch.  They should be at least 2-point home favorites when adjusting for home-court advantage and the spot.

Denver is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  Plays on any team (Milwaukee) - after losing five or six of its last seven games, a good team (60-75%) playing a winning team are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on all teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Milwaukee) - off a blowout home win by 20 points or more, a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

20* Kings/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on OVER 239

The Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder are both two dead nuts OVER teams.  The Thunder rank 10th in pace while the Kings rank 11th.  The Thunder rank 5th in offensive rating while the Kings rank 14th.

The OVER is 5-0 in Kings last five games overall with 238 or more combined points in all five games and 241 or more in four of them.  The OVER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games overall with 241 or more combined points in three consecutive games.  These teams combined for 251 points in their most recent meeting this season.

Oklahoma City is 16-1 OVER vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 10-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Suns/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on OVER 239.5

Both the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors are as healthy as they have been basically all season.  They are both elite offensive teams when that is the case, and that has been on display in recent games.

Indeed, the Suns have scored at least 114 points in 14 of their last 15 games overall.  The Warriors have scored at least 119 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  I think both teams get to 120 in this one and it sails OVER the total.

Golden State is 8-1 OVER in Saturday games this season.  Phoenix is 8-1 OVER vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Thunder/Mavs NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 240

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team when Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are on the court at the same time.  Both are elite scorers and terrible defenders.  The Mavericks are 12th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating this season while ranking 9th in pace.

The Thunder rank 10th in pace and 5th in offensive rating and can match the Mavericks score for score in this one.  They will be looking to get up and down in this one especially coming into this game on three days' rest and fully healthy now.

OKC beat Dallas 126-120 for 246 combined points in their lone meeting this season.  That was a very up-tempo game that got OVER the total despite the Thunder shooting just 44% and the Mavericks 44.8% for the game.  I expect the shooting to improve in the rematch.

Oklahoma City is 15-1 OVER vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 9-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Raptors OVER 233

The Houston Rockets have changed the way they play with more tempo over the last month.  They have gone for 239 or more combined points with their opponents in eight of their last 13 games overall.

The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team since trading for Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett for one of their best defenders in OG Anunoby.  They also traded for Bruce Brown, and those three guards make them an OVER team.

The OVER is 4-0 in Raptors last four games overall with 238 or more combined points in all four games.  That includes their 135-106 loss in Houston on February 2nd earlier this month for 241 combined points.  It should be more of the same here, except I expect the Raptors to shoot much better than they did in that first meeting.

Houston is 12-1 OVER in its last 13 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher in the 2nd half of the season.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Raptors and Rockets.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks -2

The Atlanta Hawks didn't lose any important players at the trade deadline despite Dejounte Murray's name coming up a ton.  I think he sat out the last couple games because of the rumors, and now there's a decent chance he returns tonight.

That would be a bonus, but I like how the Hawks played even without him in their last two games.  They took both the Clippers at home and Celtics on the road to the wire.  Now I expect them to get rewarded for their efforts tonight by taking down a short-handed Philadelphia 76ers team.

The 76ers are 26-8 SU with Joel Embiid and 4-12 SU without him.  Tyrese Maxey isn't good enough to carry this team.  They lost Patrick Beverly in a trade and added Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne, but neither are expected to play tonight.  They are also without Melton, Batum and Covington.  The last three games without Embiid have been a disaster with the 76ers going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS while getting blown out in all 3, losing by 15 at home to the Nets, by 16 at home to the Mavericks and by 23 at home to the Warriors.

Plays on road teams (Atlanta) - after allowing 115 points or more in five consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 125 points or more last game are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pistons/Blazers OVER 227.5

The OVER is 3-1 in Pistons last four games overall combining for 249 points with the Cavs, 251 points with the Clippers and 253 points with the Kings.  They are a dead nuts OVER team with the way they are playing right now.  And they didn't even have both Bogdanovic and Cunningham against the Kings last night, and both could return tonight which would make them an even better OVER bet.

Injuries for the Blazers have hampered them all season, but they have been a very good offensive team when they've had Grant (21.3 PPG), Brogdon (15.7 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Simons (23.2 PPG, 5.3 APG) on the court at the same time.  These three are all probable, plus they could have Scoot Henderson (12.8 PPG) and DeAndre Ayton (13.8 PPG) on the court tonight, who are both questionable.

Detroit is 17-6 OVER as a road underdog this season.  The Pistons are 30-15 OVER as underdogs this season.  Detroit ranks 7th in pace and 29th in defensive rating this season, making them a dead nuts OVER team.  This total of 227.5 is very low for a game involving the Pistons and with the current positive health of the Blazers.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Suns OVER 243

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 9th in pace and 25th in defensive rating, but they can fill it up on offense.  The Jazz have scored 123 or more points in 13 of their last 15 games overall.  If they get to 123 tonight, this thing is sailing OVER.

The Suns are fully healthy right now with Booker, Durant, Beal and Nurkic all on the court at the same time.  They are an elite offensive team when that's the case, plus they have sharp shooters in Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon surrounding them.  The Suns have scored at least 114 points in 13 of their last 14 games overall.

These teams have met twice this season with the Suns winning 131-128 for 259 combined points in the first meeting and 140-137 in the 2nd meeting in OT for 277 combined points just two days later.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Pelicans/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +7.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Clippers and a great time to 'sell high' on them.  They just completed a 6-1 road trip and have been on the road since January 26th.  I always like fading teams in their first home game back from an extended road trip because there are a lot of distractions for them to deal with back home.

Now the Clippers will be playing in their 8th different city in 13 days and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They just played in a 149-144 shootout in Atlanta on Monday and won't have much left in the tank for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with a 138-100 blowout home win over the Raptors on Monday.  They will be the much fresher team in this one, and the Pelicans have actually played some of their best basketball on the road this season.  They are 11-4 SU in their last 15 road games with only two losses by more than 6 points.

Plays on road underdogs (New Orleans) - after a combined score of 235 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans own the Clippers, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Celtics OVER 244

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace, 10th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating.  Their defense gets even worse without C Clint Capela in their lineup as he is the only player that offers any resistance to the opposition at the rim.

The OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last seven games overall with 246 or more combined points at the end of regulation in all seven games.  They are averaging 262.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven games.  This total of 244 is too low for a game involving Atlanta right now.

The Celtics are fully healthy right now and a dangerous offensive team when that is the case.  They rank 2nd in offensive rating this season.  They can name their number here against the Hawks, which I think is 130-plus and the Hawks will do enough to keep pace to get this up and OVER the total.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 248 or more combined points in three of those.  Atlanta is 8-1 OVER when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Wizards OVER 234

The Cleveland Cavaliers are fully healthy right now and playing well offensively.  They have scored at least 116 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  They are shooting a lot more 3-pointers this season which is a big reason for their uptick on offense.

Now they face a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards who rank 1st in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  The Wizards allow 125.8 points per game on 50.3% shooting at home this season.  But they score 114.6 points per game on 48.3% shooting at home and should be able to put up enough to get this one up and OVER the total with the Cavaliers naming their number offensively.

Washington is 16-3 OVER in its last 19 home games when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +3

The Utah Jazz want revenge from a 129-134 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on January 18th.  They are fully healthy and the fresher team right now playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are coming off a 123-108 home win over the Bucks to improve to 16-7 SU & 17-5-1 ATS at home this season the best ATS record at home in the entire NBA.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing their 9th game in 15 days.  This rough stretch has injuries piling up with Isaiah Joe out and Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams and Cason Wallace all questionable.  One of the Thunder's biggest strengths is their depth, and that is really getting tested right now.

The Thunder needed double-OT to dispatch of the lowly Toronto Raptors as 8.5-point favorites last time out.  I don't believe they should be favored on the road tonight given how tired they are and the fact that they now have to go into altitude in Salt Lake City and play an elite home team in the Jazz.

Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing with double revenge this season.  The Jazz are 12-2 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  Plays on underdogs (Utah) - after scoring 115 points or more in two consecutive games against an opponent that scored 135 points or more last game are 46-14 (76.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -4

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone 13-1 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have done a lot of this damage without key players in Evan Mobley and Darius Garland.  But both are back healthy now and the Cavaliers are as close to full strength as they have been all season.

I like them to cover this short number at home against a Sacramento Kings team that is in a tough spot tonight.  The Kings have to be fatigued playing their 7th consecutive road game tonight.  They will also be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  I don't expect them to have much left in the tank for the Cavaliers tonight.

Sacramento is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Cleveland is 12-4 ATS against good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game this season.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - after covering four of its last five against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +14

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 120-108 road loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday.  Now they get to play the Nuggets again here just two days later on Sunday.  They will be the more motivated team in this rematch.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dangerous team when healthy, which is the case for them right now.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA because they have a poor 15-34 SU record and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

But the Blazers have shown what they are capable of in their last three games when healthy.  They upset the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs and upset the Bucks 119-116 as 10.5-point home dogs.  They only lost by 12 as 14-point road dogs to the Nuggets and Jerami Grant was a late scratch with back tightness.  There's a chance they get Grant back today, but having Simons, Brogdon, Ayton and Henderson healthy and playing is enough.

Being the defending champs comes with a tax for the Nuggets.  This team is struggling to get margin largely because they get everyone's best shot.  In fact, the Nuggets haven't won any of their last 12 games by more than 12 points, making for a 12-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 14-point spread.  The Nuggets aren't going to be all that motivated to beat Portland again, which is going to make it tough to get margin.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* Lakers/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have gone 15-2 UNDER in their last 17 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 15 of those 17 games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they host the Los Angeles Lakers on ABC.

The Knicks are missing Julius Randle and Quentin Grimes right now and OG Anunoby is questionable after missing the past couple games.  The Knicks have had to rely on defense more than ever of late without these guys.  They struggle to get easy baskets on offense with only Jalen Brunson and DiVincenzo doing the heavy lifting without them.

The Lakers have a bunch of injuries of their own that are hampering them offensively and forcing them to rely more on defense.  LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both questionable after missing the last game, and Jared Vanderbilt and Cam Reddish are both out.  The Lakers went for just 219 combined points with the Celtics last time out.

The Lakers and Knicks have combined for 223 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +12.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dangerous team when healthy, which is the case for them right now.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA because they have a poor 15-33 SU record and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

But the Blazers have shown what they are capable of in their last two games when healthy.  They upset the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs and upset the Bucks 119-116 as 10.5-point home dogs.  Now they are catching 12.5 points to the Denver Nuggets, and they won't have a letdown tonight with this opportunity to take down the defending champs.

Being the defending champs comes with a tax for the Nuggets.  This team is struggling to get margin largely because they are not healthy.  In fact, the Nuggets haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 12 points, making for a 12-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Nikola Jokic is questionable to play tonight with a back injury after missing their last game as well.  Bet the Blazers Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +12

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  These are the types of teams you can really make money on in the NBA.  They have a poor 6-41 SU record so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But they keep showing up every night.

The Pistons pulled the outright upset 120-104 as 12.5-point dogs in their last home game over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They also took the Cavaliers to the wire on the road last time out in a 128-121 loss as 12.5-point dogs.  Now they are once again catching too many points tonight at home to the Los Angeles Clippers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But they did lose by 10 at Cleveland as 2.5-point favorites two games back to give these teams a common opponent.  And they won't be all that motivated to beat Detroit tonight.  This will be their 5th road game in 8 days as well and they are starting to run out of gas.  Detroit will be playing its 2nd game in 5 days and will be the fresher team.

Plays against road favorites of 10 points or more (LA Clippers) - a hot team winning 12 or more of their last 15 games, a tired team playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* 76ers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -4.5

The Utah Jazz return home highly motivated for a victory off two blowout road losses at Brooklyn and at New York on back-to-back days.  They get exactly the team they need to get back on track in the injury-ravaged Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers are without Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG) and De'Anthony Melton (11.8 PPG) and could be without Tyrese Maxey (25.7 PPG, 6.6 APG), who has missed the last three games with injury.  The 76ers are a tired team as well playing their 5th road game in eight days and in altitude in Salt Lake City to boot.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Jazz tonight.

Utah is 15-6 SU & 16-4-1 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are fully healthy right now to boot.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Jazz are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* Bucks/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +10.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are the team you want to back when they are fully healthy and fade when they are not.  It makes as big a difference to them as any team in the NBA.  Right now they are fully healthy with Grant, Brogdon, Simons, Ayton and Henderson all playing.

We saw what they were capable of when that's the case last time out upsetting the 76ers 130-104 as 9-point home dogs.  They are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games with outright upsets at home against Brooklyn as 7-point dogs, at home against Indiana as 8-point dogs, at Houston as 10-point dogs and a 2-point loss at OKC as 14-point dogs.  Most of their losses were when they weren't fully healthy.

Now the Blazers are once again catching too many points at home tonight as 10.5-point dogs to the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks are in transition right now with the switch at head coach in Doc Rivers.  They are fade material in the immediate future.  He isn't going to fix their defense as the Bucks rank 19th in defensive rating, which is why they struggle to get margin on teams.  Despite being 32-15 SU, the Bucks have just 11 wins by more than 11 points.

The Blazers will be giving their best effort tonight with this game on National TV on ESPN, and that effort should be good enough to stay within this inflated number.  Milwaukee is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bucks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Wizards OVER 236.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  But because they have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, we are getting a discount on this over.  That leaves us with a great opportunity to 'buy low' on this OVER.

The Clippers are an offensive juggernaut right now that they are fully healthy.  They have scored 125 or more points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  The three exceptions were against Cleveland, Boston and Minnesota, which are three of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They will get 125-plus tonight which will pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Wizards are 23-8 OVER in their last 31 home games off an ATS win.  Washington home games are averaging 241.5 combined points per game this season.  Washington is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points pre game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -5.5

The Toronto Raptors traded away two of their best players in Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby.  Both are already making major impacts on their new teams in the Pacers and Knicks, respectively.  The two players they got back in the Anunoby trade in Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are currently hurt and out tonight.

What's left of this Toronto team outside of Scottie Barnes just isn't very good.  They are one of the worst teams in the NBA in their current state.  That has shown of late as the Raptors are now 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games with four of those five losses coming by 6 points or more.

The Bulls are quietly playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 7-4 SU in their last 11 games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  The two losses during this stretch came on the road at Phoenix by 2 at the buzzer and at the Lakers by 9.  The Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games beating Memphis by 29, Houston by 5, Charlotte by 13 and Philadelphia by 13.

Chicago is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 11-3 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher this season.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 231

This total has been inflated due to the Lakers going over the total in five consecutive games coming in.  That includes their epic 145-144 (2 OT) win over the Warriors on Saturday in a game that was tied 118-118 at the end of regulation for 236 combined points.

After playing a bunch of over teams during this stretch, now the Lakers take on a Houston Rockets team that is a dead nuts UNDER team with the way they play.  Houston ranks 20th in pace, 21st in offensive rating and 8th in defensive rating.  The Lakers rank just 20th in offensive rating and a respectable 14th in defensive rating.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Lakers and Rockets.  In their two meetings this season, they combined for just 204 and 209 points.  Houston is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games after outrebounding its last two opponents by 15 boards or more.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a massive letdown spot off their epic 145-144 (2 OT) win at Golden State Saturday night.  They are already 2-0 SU against the Houston Rockets this season winning both meetings at home, so they won't be all that motivated to beat this team again.

The Houston Rockets will be motivated playing with double-revenge.  The Rockets are 16-8 SU & 16-8 ATS at home this season and finally get the Lakers at home this time around.  Houston is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with Los Angeles with three outright upsets.  The Lakers are 9-15 SU on the road this season.

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Los Angeles is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 games off two or more consecutive wins.  Darwin Ham is 6-20 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Lakers.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Wizards/Spurs OVER 240

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Washington Wizards visit the San Antonio Spurs.  The Wizards rank 1st in pace and 29th in defensive rating while the Spurs rank 4th in pace and 25th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings between the Wizards and Spurs and they both sailed OVER the total.  The Wizards won 136-124 for 260 combined points in their final meeting last season.  But more importantly, the Spurs won 131-127 for 258 combined points on January 20th just over a week ago today.  

The OVER is now 5-1 in the last six meetings and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.  The Spurs and Wizards have combined for at least 241 points in eight of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -8

The New York Knicks are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall since trading for OG Anunoby.  That includes home wins over the Nuggets by 38 and the Heat by 16 in their last two games coming in.  Now I fully expect them to make easy work of the hapless Charlotte Hornets tonight.

The Hornets just traded away Terry Rozier and now their best player in LaMelo Ball is questionable tonight and likely won't go.  They were already without Mark Williams and Gordon Hayward.  This is one of the least talented teams in the NBA in their current state.

The Hornets are 3-21 SU in their last 24 games overall.  Charlotte is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall and has rarely been competitive.  The Hornets are coming off a pair of blowout home losses to the Jazz by 12 and the Rockets by 34.

The Knicks own the Hornets going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with them this season winning by 22 and 24 at home as well as by 14 on the road.  New York is 16-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  It will be more of the same tonight with the Knicks winning by double-digits.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls -6.5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are coming off a pair of single-digit road losses to Phoenix and the LA Lakers.  Now they have had the last two days off to rest and recover and now take a big step down in class against the Portland Trail Blazers.  This one has blowout written all over it.

Portland is 4-10 in its last 14 games overall and just cannot stay healthy.  They lost both Jerami Grant and Scoot Henderson to injury in the 1H of their 116-100 road loss to the Spurs on Friday.  Now they will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days and returning home from a four-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home from an extended road trip.

Grant, Henderson, Malcolm Brodgon, Anfernee Simons and Jabari Walker are all questionable to play tonight.  Sheadon Sharpe is out.  Depending how this injury news breaks, the Bulls could close as double-digit favorites.  There's just not much talent for the Blazers outside of these guys that are questionable or out.

Portland is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games after covering four or five of its last six ATS.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the Bulls Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +7.5

This line has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Clippers had two days off before their 127-107 win in Toronto last night.  They made such easy work of the Raptors that they didn't have to play their starters big minutes.

The Clippers will still be plenty fresh and motivated to try and knock off the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Clippers are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall with the two losses coming by 3 points to the Lakers and by 4 to the Timberwolves.  So the Clippers would be 14-0 ATS with a line of +7.5 in their last 14 games.  They are playing too well right now to be catching 7.5 points.

The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis and they are much less efficient without him.  They should not be favored by 7.5 without Porzingis, who would have been a matchup nightmare for the Clippers in their current state.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -9.5

This is a terrible spot for the short-handed Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They just lost 138-104 at home to the Houston Rockets last night, and their effort won't be any better tonight.  They traded away Terry Rozier and now they are even more short-handed without Gordon Hayward and Mark Williams already.

The Utah Jazz will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  They blew out the Wizards 123-108 on the road last time out and will win this game by double-digits as well to get us the win and cover.  The Jazz are 13-6 SU & 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall and playing their best basketball of the season now that they are fully healthy.

Charlotte is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.  Utah is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Knicks UNDER 217

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team since trading for OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.  They have become an elite defensive team since the trade holding 11 of their last 13 opponents to 106 points or fewer, including eight of them to 100 or fewer.  That's remarkable in today's NBA.

The UNDER is 12-1 in Knicks last 13 games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in10 of those 13 games.  The Knicks rank 27th in pace and 7th in defensive rating this season, which makes them a dead nuts UNDER team.

Now they take on another dead nuts UNDER team in the Miami Heat.  The Heat rank 11th in defensive rating, 22nd in offensive rating and 28th in pace.  So this is a matchup between two of the four slowest teams in the NBA from a pace perspective.

Each of the last eight meetings between New York and Miami have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 217-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers/Spurs OVER 230.5

The Blazers and their opponents have combined for 233 or more points in three of their last four games overall.  That includes a 137-131 win at Houston that saw 268 combined points last time out.

The OVER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games overall with 244 or more combined points in all four games.  The Blazers and Spurs are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 240 or more combined points in four of those five.  That includes 262 combined points in their most recent meeting on December 29th.

The OVER is 15-5 in San Antonio's 20 home games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Magic/Grizzlies UNDER 213

The Orlando Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team going 7-2 UNDER in its last nine games overall.  Orlando and its opponents have combined for 212 or fewer points in six of its last eight games.  This is a very high total for a game involving the Magic tonight.

That's especially the case when you consider their opponent in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are also a dead nuts UNDER team right now due to all their injuries.  They are without Morant, Smart, Bane and several others and having to rely on defense to be competitive.

The UNDER is 9-5 in Grizzlies last 14 games overall.  The Grizzlies have scored 108 or fewer points in four consecutive games.  The Magic rank 5th in defensive rating while the Grizzlies rank 10th.  The Grizzlies rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating while the Magic rank 24th.

Memphis is 14-5 UNDER at home this season.  The Grizzlies are 14-4 UNDER after scoring 105 points or fewer this season.  Orlando is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games following a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The Magic are 12-1 UNDER in their last 13 road games following a home loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Pelicans NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 240.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER rank ranking 4th in pace and 7th in offensive rating.  The Pelicans are 8th in offensive rating and both teams are really scoring at a high level right now.

The Thunder are scoring 121.9 points per game this season.  The Pelicans are scoring 117.5 points per game and that number would be even higher if they were healthy all season.  Well, they are healthy right now and we're seeing what they are capable of scoring 127.4 points per game in their last eight games.

Oklahoma City is a perfect 8-0 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 116-plus points per game this season.  We are seeing an average of 252.9 combined points per game in these games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2.5

The New York Knicks are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.  They have become an elite defensive team since the trade holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to 106 points or fewer, including seven of them to 100 or fewer.  That's remarkable in today's NBA.

Now I fully expect the Knicks to upset the defending champion Denver Nuggets at home tonight.  The Nuggets are 14-10 SU but 8-15-1 ATS on the road this season and have been vulnerable on the highway.  The Knicks are 14-5 SU & 11-7-1 ATS at home this season.

New York is a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Knicks UNDER 222.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team since trading for OG Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors.  They have become an elite defensive team since the trade holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to 106 points or fewer, including seven of them to 100 or fewer.  That's remarkable in today's NBA.

The UNDER is 11-1 in Knicks last 12 games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in nine of those 12 games.  The Knicks rank 27th in pace and 7th in defensive rating this season, which makes them a dead nuts UNDER team.

Now they take on another dead nuts UNDER team in the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets rank 28th in pace and 12th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Nuggets last three games overall combining for 202 points with the Celtics, 217 with the Wizards and 223 with the Pacers.  The Wizards and Pacers are dead nuts over teams playing at the two fastest paces in the entire NBA as well.

Denver is 15-1 UNDER in its last 16 games after playing three consecutive non-conference games this season.  The Nuggets are 14-6 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 224.5

The Miami Heat are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games and 12-2 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They have been held to 108 or fewer points in seven consecutive games, and 99 or fewer in five of those seven.  They could be without Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kevin Love tonight, and they are having chemistry issues trying to incorporate Terry Rozier Jr.

Miami ranks 29th in pace, 22nd in offensive rating and 9th in defensive rating.  The Heat have been getting after it defensively holding their last seven opponents to an average of just 102.6 points per game.  They can hold the Boston Celtics in check tonight.

The Celtics are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception was the 229 against a dead nuts over team in the Mavericks when the total was 240.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating and 17th in pace.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Miami and Boston with 215 combined points or fewer in four of those five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pistons OVER 234

La'Melo Ball recently returned from injury and makes the Hornets a dead nuts OVER team when he's on the court.  They play with more pace and are a much more efficient offensive team with him than without him.

We have seen that play out since he returned.  They have gone for 234 or more combined points with their opponents in four of the five games since he returned with the lone exception being a game against the Miami Heat, who are a dead nuts under team.  They went for 253 with Minnesota, 244 with San Antonio and 244 with New Orleans in his last three games.

The Detroit Pistons are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pistons have gone for 235 or more combined points with their opponents in seven of their last eight games overall and 11 of their last 13 games as well.  This total of 234 is too short tonight given all these facts.

Detroit is 8-1 OVER off two or more consecutive ATS wins this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.