20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics really believe they can come back and win this series.  They gained a lot of confidence from their Game 3 win over the Hawks.  They led that game by double-digits for most of the first half, but saw their lead completely vanish before rallying to win it in the 4th quarter behind 42 points from Isaiah Thomas.

The good news is that Thomas is probable and not expected to get suspended from his hit on Dennis Schroeder.  He is the key to this team and clearly figured something out in Game 3 as the Celtics made the proper adjustments on how he should attack this defense.

The Celtics are 20-3 in their last 23 home games, a stretch which saw them sport the fourth-best home record in the NBA in the second half of the season.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites is a gift from oddsmakers today.

Atlanta is 16-34 ATS in its last 50 road playoffs games.  Boston is 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of its last six games this season.  It is winning by an average of 11.6 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5

The loss to the Mavericks in Game 2 really woke up the Thunder.  They won't let it happen again, and I expect Game 4 to play out just as Game 1 and Game 3 did, with the end result being a double-digit blowout victory for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has won six of its last seven meetings with Dallas.  It has won four of the last six meetings by 13 points or more.  It won by 38 points at home in Game 1 and by 29 points on the road in Game 3.  It took a 33.7% shooting effort as a team for the Thunder to let the Mavs hang around and steal one in Game 2.  That's not going to happen again.

Plays against home teams (DALLAS) - off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more, in April games are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996.  The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oklahoma City is 23-8-2 ATS in its last 33 Saturday games.  The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Thunder in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Heat/Hornets Game 3 No-Brainer on Charlotte -2

The Charlotte Hornets were quietly one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They went 30-11 on their home floor, and facing a must-win in Game 3 after falling behind 0-2, I'll back them to get a win and cover against the Miami Heat tonight.

There's no question that this was a one-sided series in Miami.  The Heat shot 57.6% while scoring 123 points in Game 1, and 57.9% while scoring 115 points in Game 2.  It's safe to say that they aren't going to continue this torrid shooting, especially since most of their offense comes from 1-on-1 stuff.

"You have to look at how they're scoring," he said. "They're not running sets that we're having trouble with coverages on. It's one-on-one stuff. It's as simple as this: If Dwyane Wade's got room, he's getting in the paint against anybody."

Look for Clifford to make the proper adjustments heading into Game 3 that will turn this series around for the Hornets and have them avoid their 13th straight playoff loss.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Hornets in Game 3 Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3

It's now or never for the Boston Celtics after falling behind 0-2 in this series to the Atlanta Hawks.  Look for them to come out with a big sense of urgency and to put away the Atlanta Hawks in Game 3, which is their first home game of the series.

The Celtics have dug themselves early holes in each of the first two games.  They shot 23.1 percent and fell behind 17 at halftime before rallying to lose by 1 in Game 1.  They then turned in the lowest-scoring first quarter in playoff history and fell behind 7-24 after the first period in Game 2.

Behind the help of their home fans, look for the Celtics to come out attacking from the opening tip.  A better start is going to help give this team confidence as they try and end a 7-game playoff losing streak.  After all, they are 19-3 at home since January 13, which is the fourth-best home mark in that span.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS since 1996.  Atlanta is 16-33 ATS in its last 49 road playoff games.  Boston is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 games after scoring 75 points or less in its previous game.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Friday.

20* Raptors/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1

A massive weight has been lifted from the Toronto Raptors' shoulders.  They put an end to a 7-game playoff losing streak with their 98-87 win over the Pacers in Game 2.  Now that they have that monkey off their back, look for it to free them up as they get back to playing the way they played during the regular season, which was the second-best team in the East.

I feel like Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan felt that weight the most because they actually haven't played well in the first two games of this series.  Lowry has shot 7 for 26 while fell All-Star DeRozan has gone 10 for 37.  It's been the role players who have played great for the Raptors.  But I have a sneaky suspicion that both Lowry and DeRozan are going to go off now.

The Pacers simply do not have an answer for Jonas Valanciunas down low, either.  He had a franchise playoff-record 19 rebounds in Game 1, and he followed that up with a playoff career-high 23 points and 15 rebounds in Game 2.  He is really the X-factor in this series.

Toronto has the third-best road record in the NBA this season at 24-17 away from home.  The Raptors are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 meetings with the Pacers, including an impressive 8-1 (89%) ATS in their last nine trips to Indiana.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Detroit +10.5

The Detroit Pistons are showing excellent value once again as double-digit underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I was on them in Game 1 with success, and I'm backing them again today for many of the same reasons.

The Pistons proved that their 3-1 season series win over the Cavaliers was no fluke by hanging with them for four quarters in Game 1 in a 101-106 loss as 11-point dogs.  They actually led that game 58-53 at halftime and shot 50.7% for the game.

Detroit simply matches up well with Cleveland.  The Cavs have no answer for Andre Drummond, and the Pistons have the wings in Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris to throw at Lebron James and keep him in check.  The Pistons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Cleveland.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 150-95 (61.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 26-54-1 ATS in their last 81 vs. NBA Central opponents.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Heat UNDER 199

Game 1 between Charlotte and Miami went well over the posted total of 198.5 in a 123-91 victory for the Heat.  They simply could not miss from the floor as they shot 57.6%, including 50% from 3-point range.  Neither of those two things are going to happen again in Game 2.

Charlotte will make the proper adjustments defensively to hold the Heat closer to the 100-point mark, and likely below it.  After all, these were two of the better defensive teams in the league during the regular season.  The Heat ranked 7th in defensive efficiency while the Hornets were 9th.  The Heat also ranked just 25th in pace during the regular season.

Having two days off in between games will also make those defensive adjustments stick more.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Hornets last 24 games playing on 2 days rest.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Heat last 30 games playing on 2 days rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Boston +6.5

After coming back from 17 points down at halftime against the Atlanta Hawks to lose 101-102 in Game 1, the Boston Celtics clearly figured something out in the second half offensively.  They scored 67 points after intermission, and they'll use what they learned to try and pull the upset in Game 2.

''We're going to have to just continue to throw different bodies at (Teague) and make it as difficult as possible," Stevens said after Sunday's practice. "We're playing small anyways, so you might have to go even deeper into that. We'll look at it and figure that out over the next 48 hours.''

Stevens is concerned about stopping Jeff Teague, who had 23 points and 12 assists in the opener.  And without Avery Bradley, that job will be more difficult, but I believe they'll be up to the task.  They went 3-3 without Bradley this season, and one of the wins was a 106-93 victory over Atlanta on November 13.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1996.  Boston is 20-8 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge against an opponent over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 34-21 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Houston +13.5

I like the mindset of the Houston Rockets coming into Game 2 of this series with the Golden State Warriors.  They clearly weren't happy with the way they played in Game 1, especially in the first half as they dug themselves a hole that they simply could not climb out of.

"Move our bodies a little bit more," James Harden said. "Everything that happened [Saturday] was because of us. Obviously they're a good team, but we can improve so much more and that's what we we're excited about and we're definitely excited about [Monday's] game."

Houston made 297 passes in the loss, leading to 16 assists and four secondary assists. Golden State made 330 passes, leading to 26 assists and 10 secondary assists.

"You always got to talk about your habits," he said. "All the things you want to do, if you don't talk about them then you won't do them. So you got to continue to talk about them. You got to continue to preach it, whatever your system is, on either side of the ball you got to continue to preach it. You're going to have moments you don't do it, for whatever reason, but you continue to preach it and from there you hope that will do it."

I also like the fact that Stephen Curry suffered an ankle injury in Game 1 and is questionable to play in Game 2.  No question the Warriors are seriously considering resting him, which would be a huge help for the Rockets.  Even if he's limited it's going to help the Rockets either way.

Houston is 24-13 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons, 16-6 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two years, and 33-14 ATS in their last 47 games after committing 23 or more turnovers.  Plays on road underdogs (HOUSTON) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 73-41 (64%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4.5

The Miami Heat are a team built for the playoffs with Dwayne Wade and Joe Johnson being two of the best 1-on-1 players in the game.  They can break down a defense when all else fails, and that is an advantage that they'll have over the more team-oriented Charlotte Hornets this entire series, including in Game 1.  Hassan Whiteside is one of the best shot blockers in the NBA, and Goran Dragic has really upped his game down the stretch at the point guard position.

I really like the Heat here as only 4.5-point favorites, making them the smallest home favorites of any team in Game 1 of the eight opening series.  That fact alone makes me believe there's some value, especially considering the Heat are 28-13 at home this season, while the Hornets are 18-23 on the road.

Miami is 22-4 SU at home against Charlotte in the last 26 meetings.  It is outscoring the Hornets by roughly 10 points per game during this stretch as well.  The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 Sunday games.  Roll with the Heat Sunday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 1 No-Brainer on Detroit +11

The Cleveland Cavaliers are simply getting too much respect as the No. 1 seed in the East.  That comes with having Lebron James on your team, but they have no business being 11-point favorites over the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Detroit actually won the season series with Cleveland 3-1, outscoring the Cavaliers by 1.75 points per game on average, and winning both road meetings outright.  They match up very favorably with the Cavaliers.  Cleveland's only real answer to All-Star center Andre Drummond's size and physical dominance is benched big man Timofey Mozgov, who has been horrible all season.

The Pistons have several versatile forwards in Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris to throw at Lebron James.  Shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pople is a nightmare matchup for Kyrie Irving as well.  And Reggie Jackson is quickly becoming a star in Detroit and one of the most underrated points guards in the league.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Cavaliers are 26-53-1 ATS in their last 80 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Game 1 Line Mistake on Boston Celtics +5.5

I expect the Boston Celtics to give the Atlanta Hawks a run for their money in this series.  It starts with Game 1 as they are 5.5-point underdogs here in a game I believe they are likely to win outright.

After winning the first meeting this season by 13 points at home, the Celtics have lost their last three meetings with the Hawks.  That places them in triple-revenge mode here, and I believe the Hawks will actually relax knowing that they have beaten the Celtics three straight times.

Boston is 54-36 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 15-3 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last three years.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

20* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Houston +13

I believe the Golden State Warriors are in for a bit of a hangover in Game 1 of this series with the Houston Rockets.  They just set the NBA record for wins in a season with 73 by winning their final four games, and that grueling stretch to finish will take a little out of them in Game 1.  It will be enough for the Rockets to stay within this 13-point spread.

Don't look now, but the Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They were in must-win games down the stretch, and they dominated by going 3-0 in their final three games with wins over the Lakers (by 20), Timberwolves (by 24) and Kings (by 35).  They won their last three games by an average of 26.3 points per game.

The Rockets actually played the Warriors reasonably tough during the regular season.  They lost all four games, but three of the four losses came by 14 points or less.  I simply believe given this tough situation for the Warriors and how well the Rockets are playing right now that 13 points is too much.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 149-93 (61.6%) ATS since 1996.  Houston is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Bulls OVER 208

Defense will not be a priority tonight when two teams who eliminated from playoff contention in the 76ers and Bulls meet up in Chicago.  Look for a high-scoring affair from these teams today as a result.

The Bulls are set up right now to play in high-scoring games due to missing Taj Gibson, Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol.  Fred Hoiberg has had to go with smaller lineups, but also lineups that are more optimal offensively.  It has worked as the Bulls have won back-to-back games over Cleveland and New Orleans while averaging 113.0 points per game and giving up 109.0 points per game.

The 76ers have actually played great offensively here of late.  They have scored 102 or more points in four of their last five games.  But they are still a mess defensively, giving up 100 or more in 10 of their last 11 contests.  They have given up 122, 109 and 109 in their last three, respectively.

These teams have combined for 226 and 211 points in their last two meetings this season.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams as well.

Chicago is 14-3 OVER against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Chicago is 9-1 OVER vs. teams who are outscored by 9-plus points per game on the season over the last two years.  The OVER is 6-0 in 76ers last six vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The OVER is 6-0 in Bulls last six vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Memphis +7.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a 0.5-game behind the Portland Trail Blazers for the No. 5 seed in the West.  They want to get that seed, and they are now 7.5-point dogs to the Clippers Tuesday in a game they need to have.  I'll take the points, especially with the Clippers locked into the No. 4 seed.

The Grizzlies are obviously still trying to finish out the season on the right note as they just lost to the Warriors by 1 as 13-point dogs.  They have had two days off since that loss, so they are chomping at the bit to get after the Clippers tonight.

Memphis is 23-13 ATS off one or more consecutive losses this season.  The Clippers are 0-8 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -5.5

The Utah Jazz are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot.  They are one game ahead of the Houston Rockets for the No. 8 seed, and one game behind the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 7 seed.  In their home finale, with what's at stake, look for the Jazz to take care of business in a big way tonight.

The Mavericks are short-handed right now as they are likely to be without Jose Barea again tonight, just as they were last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after falling 91-98 to the Los Angeles Clippers last night, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days as well.  The Mavs are one of the oldest teams in the league and aren't equipped to handle these situations well.

Yes, the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, but this will only be their 3rd game in 6 days.  They are coming off a 100-84 blowout win at Denver yesterday that required little effort.  They will be the fresher team, and their much younger legs are more suited to handle this situation.

The Jazz are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games playing on 0 days rest.  Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The favorite is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Atlanta Hawks +4.5

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for right now.  They are currently one game ahead of both the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat for the No. 3 seed in the East.  They can grab a stranglehold on not only the No. 3 seed, but also their second straight Southeast Division title with a win tonight.

The Cleveland Cavaliers look disinterested here down the stretch and just ready for the playoffs.  They have lost back-to-back games with a 109-123 road loss to Indiana, and a 102-105 road loss to Chicago in a game the Lebron James actually played in.  There's a good chance they rest James tonight like they did against Indiana, though.

Few teams are playing as well as the Hawks right now.  They are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall and are coming off two huge wins over both Toronto and Boston by a combined 19 points, two of the top contenders in the East.  Now they want revenge from a 108-110 overtime loss to Cleveland on April 1 just 10 days ago.

Plays on underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The Cavaliers are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 Monday games.  Roll with the Hawks Monday.

20* Warriors/Spurs NBA TV No-Brainer on Golden State +5.5

The Golden State Warriors want the 73-9 record that would give them the most wins in a single season in NBA history.  They only have to go 2-0 in their final two games to get it, so they are extremely motivated for that record right now.

I like their chances of upsetting the San Antonio Spurs on the road here.  Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Warriors as underdogs, but that is the opportunity we've been given today, and we'll take advantage.

Greg Popovich has said he won't rest his starters against the Warriors even though the Spurs are locked in to the No. 2 seed, but I wouldn't be surprised if he limits their minutes in this one with the playoffs just around the corner.  He has also stated that the 41-0 home record the Spurs are in search of is meaningless.

The Warriors are 23-12 ATS when playing on 0 days' rest over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  San Antonio is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % of .600 or better.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* T'Wolves/Blazers Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to battle here down the stretch.  They are coming off back-to-back road wins over the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings, and I look for them to give the Portland Trail Blazers a run for their money here tonight.

The Timberwolves will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Blazers.  They are 0-3 against Portland this season, but a closer look shows that all three games were decided by 6 points or less.  They have been decided by 3, 6 and 5 points, and this 8.5-point spread certainly has a great chance of coming into play here.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.

Minnesota is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the 2nd half of the season this season.  The Timberwolves are 21-8 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  The Timberwolves are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Blazers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Phoenix Suns -1.5

The Phoenix Suns have made backers a nice chunk of change here down the stretch.  They are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall and clearly have not quit on their season.  That showed last time out as the Suns won 124-115 in Houston as 12-point road dogs to really crush the Rockets' playoff hopes.

New Orleans is the most depleted team in the league.  Its list of injuries is almost laughable at this point.  But give the Pelicans credit for continuing to fight.  They have actually gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, but that simply has them overvalued coming into this game against the Suns.

However, that long list of injuries will take its toll tonight.  The Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially this late in the season.  The Pelicans simply aren't equipped to handle it right now with their short bench.

The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Phoenix is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last six Saturday games.  Bet the Suns Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah Jazz -12

The Utah Jazz are 1.5 games up on the Houston Rockets for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.  They look to  take another step forward toward reaching their goal of making the postseason with a win over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

The Jazz have been playing very well of late, going 10-4 in their last 14 games overall with each of  their last three victories coming by 13 points or more.  They have won five of their last seven at home with their only losses coming to Golden State (OT) and San Antonio (by 2).

The Clippers are going to make the Jazz' job much easier tonight.  That's because they are resting all their starters, including Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick and Wesley Johnson.  Plus, Jeff Green and Austin Rivers are questionable.  I see no way they can compete with the Jazz tonight considering what Utah has to play for.

The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Utah is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings in Utah.  Roll with the Jazz Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers will clinch a playoff spot with a win today over the Toronto Raptors.  The motivation from missing the playoffs by one game last year is real with this team, and they are not about to waste this opportunity.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors are already locked into the No. 2 seed in the East.  They have nothing to play for, and after losing in Atlanta last night, they will be resting their starters today.  That will make the goal of clinching a playoff spot a lot easier for the Pacers tonight.

"I think we're playing well at the right time," said George, who is 8 of 19 from 3-point range in his last three games. "It just has to continue. We all feel great about this win and the streak we're on, winning in our past three games. It's about capitalizing on this moment now."  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5.5

It's safe to say the Detroit Pistons are highly motivated right now.  A win Friday and they would clinch their first playoff berth in seven years.  Look for the Pistons to roll the Washington Wizards at home.

Washington is pretty much eliminated from postseason contention.  It would have to win out to make the playoffs, and then get Detroit to lose its last three while moving past nine-place Chicago to return to the postseason.  Plus, John Wall is hurt right now and may not play.

The Wizards are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  The Pistons are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Wizards are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Detroit.  Take the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an overtime road win against the defending champion Golden State Warriors.  Now they are unlikely to even show up tonight, and I fully expect them to get blown out of the building.

The Kings have shown up at home all season and will continue to do so tonight.  They clearly have not packed it in as they are actually playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  Indeed, they are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Adding to the Kings' motivation is the fact that they will be looking to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Timberwolves after losing each of the first three meetings this season.  Having already beaten the Kings three times, I find it hard to believe the Timberwolves will be motivated for this game at all, especially after just beating the Warriors.

Minnesota is 4-18 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record.  Minnesota is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Kings Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2

The Portland Trail Blazers want to get the No. 5 seed so they can avoid Oklahoma City in the first ground.  They have a great chance of doing it since they trail the Grizzlies by just 0.5 games.  Memphis is in free-fall mode right now and won't be able to hang on.

So the Blazers have a lot to play for, while the Thunder are already locked into the No. 3 seed.  This would be the perfect time for OKC head coach Billy Donovan to rest his starters.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days, so don't be surprised to see him do just that.

Either way, I like the Blazers here because they have won seven straight at Moda Center and 16 of 18 at home overall.  They have outscored the opposition by 13.7 points per game in their last six there, limiting opponents to 97.8 points per game on 40.9 percent shooting during that stretch.

The Blazers are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Portland is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The favorite is 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -1

The Indiana Pacers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They are 2.5 games ahead of the 9th place Chicago Bulls, and a win tonight would certainly help.  They are motivated because they missed the playoffs by one game last year and don't want it to happen again.

The Cleveland Cavaliers come into this game way overvalued due to having won four straight.  But with a 3.5-game lead on the Toronto Raptors with four games to play for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, this would be the perfect time for Tyronn Lue to rest his starters.

And rest them he likely will given the situation.  Indeed, the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after beating the Bucks in Milwaukee yesterday.  It would be foolish for him to play his starters right now given their spot in the standings, and this awful rest situation.  That's why the Pacers are favored in this game.

Plays against road teams (CLEVELAND) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Indiana is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic have gotten healthy down the stretch and are playing great basketball because of it.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by 3 points on the road to Milwaukee.  Their four wins have come by 22, 34, 20 and 12 points.

Now the Magic come into this game on two days' rest, so they'll be ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days after an 89-107 loss in Miami yesterday.  This is just an awful spot for the Pistons.

Detroit is 1-9 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog this season.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing on 2 days' rest.  These three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing Orlando.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15*  T'Wolves/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +15.5

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued here Tuesday night as they chase down the Bulls' record for wins in a season.  Now they are being asked to lay 15.5-points to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, which is simply too much.

The Warriors are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall, so they aren't handling their lofty expectations very well.  Adding to that tonight is the fact that the Warriors will likely be looking ahead to their showdown with San Antonio on Thursday and not give the Timberwolves the attention they deserve.

That has been the case in this series as the T'Wolves have actually played the Warriors very tough recently.  Indeed, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 13 points or less and by an average of 8.6 points per game.  Plus, the T'Wolves come in way undervalued due to going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, but they will get up for the Warriors tonight.

Minnesota is 16-4 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  They just lost two weeks ago on March 21 to the Warriors 104-109 as 12.5-point dogs.  Minnesota is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Golden State is 2-14 ATS vs. teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have no business being this heavily favored over the Denver Nuggets on the road Tuesday night.  They are locked into the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, so they essentially have nothing to play for right now.

That mindset is clearly setting in for the Thunder right now, who are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost to both the Pistons and Rockets on the road, and barely beat the short-handed Clippers 119-117 at home.  They simply cannot be trusted right now, and they've been overvalued on the road all season.  The Thunder are just 12-23 ATS in all road games.

The Nuggets are always more competitive at home with a 17-21 SU record.  I believe they are undervalued coming into this one due to having lost four of their last five.  They play the Thunder tough at home, going 2-2 SU & 2-1-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Denver.

Oklahoma City is 3-11 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  The Thunder are 3-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Denver is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this year.  OKC is 0-6 ATS in its last six Tuesday games.  The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Nuggets Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +3.5

The Utah Jazz are showing solid value as home underdogs to the San Antonio Spurs today.  They are fighting for their playoff lives right now as they are currently the No. 8 seed in the West, but just one game ahead of the 9th place Rockets.

The Jazz are playing nearly as well as anyone in the Western Conference right now.  They are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall with one of those losses coming to the Warriors in overtime in a game they should have won.  I'm very confident backing them as dogs here with the way they're playing.

San Antonio backers are crazy given their situation.  They are locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, so they have nothing to play for.  You know Greg Popovich is famous for resting his starters without telling anyone, and that could be the case here.  Plus, the Spurs could be looking ahead to their road game against Golden State on Thursday.

Utah is 27-7 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Jazz are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 34-16-1 ATS in the last 51 meetings.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

Currently in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, two games behind both the Pistons and Pacers for the final two playoff spots, the Bulls are in must-win mode the rest of the way.  I like their chances of picking up a win today against the short-handed Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

Due to their massive injury list, the Grizzlies have been in free-fall mode.  They are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall, and they have actually lost six straight coming in to this one.  They are limping into the playoffs with no signs of turning it around any time soon.

The Bulls beat the Grizzlies 98-85 at home in their first meeting this season.  They have also won each of their last two trips to Memphis outright as underdogs.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.

The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  They have recent huge road wins over both the Pacers and Rockets while winning two of their last three overall coming in. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks are clinging on to one of the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference.  They are only one game ahead of the 9th place Houston Rockets, so they still have a lot of work to do if they want to make the postseason.

The Mavs have stepped up their game down the stretch given what's at stake.  They've gone 3-0 on their last three games overall, which includes road wins over both the Nuggets and Pistons.  They have really picked it up defensively, giving up 89 or fewer points in the three consecutive wins.

The Minnesota Timberwolves look disinterested and ready for their season to be over.  After losing by 20 at home to the Clippers, the Wolves lost on the road by 13 to the Jazz in their last two games.  Look for the Mavs to continue taking advantage of the poor play of the Wolves here of late.

The Mavs are 6-0 SU in their last six meetings with the Timberwolves.  They are going for the 4-game season sweep here today.  Dallas has won three in a row in Minnesota and is 14-3 there in the last nine years.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -10.5

Given their standing in the Eastern Conference, the Indiana Pacers are in need of a win today against the Philadelphia 76ers.  That's why they will not take them lightly right now.

The Pacers are currently the No. 8 seed in the East, only one game ahead of the 9th place Bulls.  They missed the playoffs by one game last year, but they aren't going to let it happen again.

The 76ers have lost 11 straight coming in.  While they have been a cash cow on the road of late, they have been horrible at home.  The 76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, time and time again getting blown out.

The 76ers are also in a tough spot here as they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Philly is 0-11 ATS as a home dog of 9.5 to 12 points this season.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston +12

The Boston Celtics are still fighting for home-court advantage in the first round in the East.  There are only 1.5 games separating 3 through 6 in the East, but unfortunately the Celtics are in the 6th position right now.  They will keep pushing to try and get home court in the first round.

Of course, they'll already be motivated playing the defending champion Warriors.  That's especially the case after losing in double-overtime to the Warriors at home in their first meeting this season.  The Celtics want revenge, and now they come in way undervalued as 12-point dogs here due to losing two straight.

Yes, the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they have thrived in this situation because they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  Indeed, the Celtics are an incredible 39-16-1 ATS in their last 56 games when playing on 0 days' rest.

The Warriors have been extremely overvalued here down the stretch due to their pursuit of the Bulls' record.  They are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall, and they shouldn't have covered against Utah on Wednesday.  They trailed most the way and ended up covering in overtime as 4.5-point favorites.

Boston is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Golden State with each decided by 5 points or less.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS off three consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 3-11 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  The underdog is 22-7-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a great spot tonight.  They are one of the most rested teams in the NBA right now as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  That helped them end a 5-game losing streak with an 11-point victory over the Suns on Wednesday, and now they'll be ready to go again tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Magic, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Magic come in way overvalued due to three straight blowout victories over the Bulls, Nets and Pacers.  They are ripe for a letdown tonight, especially given the rest disadvantage they're in.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 12-2 SU in the last 14 meetings.  The Bucks are 27-10 SU & 24-13 ATS in their last 37 home meetings with the Magic.  Milwaukee has gone 22-15 at home this season, while Orlando is just 12-27 on the road.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +5.5

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting to make the playoffs.  They are currently tied with the Utah Jazz for the 7th & 8th spots in the West, but only a half-game ahead of 9th place Houston.  They still have some work to do, but have shown some guts with back-to-back wins over Denver and New York.

The task gets a little tougher tonight against Detroit, who the Mavs want revenge against for losing 96-102 at hom on March 9 less than a month ago.  The Pistons clearly come in overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games with only two of those coming against playoff contenders, and one was against a short-handed Thunder team.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS In the last four meetings.  The Mavs are 4-0 SU in their last four trips to Detroit, winning by 11, 11, 3 and 14 points.  Getting out on the road will help the Mavs keep focus on the task at hand here again tonight in a game they desperately need.

The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games overall.  The Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take the Mavericks Friday.

20* Bulls/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +5.5

In 9th place in the Eastern Conference, the Bulls have no margin for error going forward.  They are 2 games behind 8th place Indiana and 2.5 games behind 7th place Detroit.  They will be laying it all on the line the rest of the way, especially tonight against the Rockets.

That was the case on Tuesday when they came through with a huge 98-96 road win at Indiana thanks to Jimmy Butler's game-winner.  They were playing the second of a back-to-back after a 2-point loss to Atlanta on Monday, so they showed a ton of heart and guts in winning that contest.

''We needed this win,'' Butler said. ''It was big for us to get a win here on the road against a playoff team. Hopefully this starts a trend for these last eight or nine games.''

The Rockets are being overvalued here because they are coming off a 106-100 win at Cleveland.  But the Cavaliers were playing without Lebron James, so they were supposed to win that game.  And it continued a trend of close games for the Rockets, whose last five games have all been decided by 6 points or less.  There's a very good chance the +5.5 comes into play tonight.

The Bulls beat the Rockets 108-100 at home in their first meeting this season on March 5.  Pau Gasol, Butler and Derrick Rose combined to shoot 51.2 percent for 69 points, 31 rebounds and 21 assists to help Chicago to its third win in the last four games of this series.

Houston is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who shoot 21 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season.  Houston is 10-19 ATS as a home favorite this season.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -5.5

The Dallas Mavericks are in must-win mode the rest of the way.  They are currently in 9th place in the Western Conference with a 36-38 record on the season.  They are only a half-game behind 8th place Houston and one game behind 7th-place Utah.

Now the Mavericks get to take on the New York Knicks, who certainly aren't playing for anything but pride.  That has shown, too, as the Knicks have gone 2-5 in their last seven games.  Their most recent game was the most concerning as they lost 91-99 at New Orleans, which is playing a bunch of D-League players right now.

The Mavs have won four straight meetings with the Knicks.  The last three victories have all come by 7 points or more as well, and that trend should continue here tonight considering the Mavs simply need this game more.

Dallas is 14-6 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  The Knicks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest.  The Mavs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to play for pride as they build for next year.  They have won three of their last four games coming in with their only loss coming to Utah on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Kings by 9 at home, the Suns by 5 at home, and the Wizards by 3 on the road.

Andrew Wiggins had 32 points against the Suns on Monday, while Karl-Anthony Towns had 27 and 10 rebounds.  ''It's a process, and this can lead into next year,'' Wiggins said. ''We don't want to stop. We play hard for a reason. We're building something here.''

Los Angeles is playing well coming in, but it literally has nothing to play for right now as it's locked into the No. 4 seed in the West.  That realization will sink in with this team down the stretch, making the Clippers great fade material going forward.

Minnesota ended a 14-game losing streak to Los Angeles with a 108-102 road victory on February 3rd.  The Clippers have won seven straight meetings in Minnesota, but four of the last five have been decided by 6 points or less, and there's a decent chance this +5.5 comes into play tonight, though I expect the T'Wolves to win outright.

Minnesota is 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (win pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  The Timberwolves are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Roll with the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +1

The Toronto Raptors should not be home underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks.  I know Kyle Lowry had his elbow drained, but he's still listed as probable and told reporters he doesn't plan on missing any time.  Even if he doesn't go, Cory Joseph is good enough at the point to lead the Raptors to victory.

Toronto still has a shot to catch Cleveland for the No. 1 seed in the East.  It comes in undervalued due to losing three of its last four, but two of those losses came on the road to Houston and Boston, and the other was at home to red hot Oklahoma City.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to winning 12 of its last 14 games overall.  But one of those losses was a 96-104 loss at Toronto, which was Atlanta's third straight loss to the Raptors in this series.  Toronto simply has Atlanta's number, and that will continue tonight.

The Raptors are 28-9 at home this season.  Atlanta is 48-71 ATS in its last 119 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  Toronto is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a road win by 3 points or less are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are rolling right now, but they are in a very tough spot here, and as a result they should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  Oklahoma City will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Raptors last night.

Detroit is in a great rest situation, coming in on 2 days' rest.  The Pistons have a lot to play for here as they are clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the East.  Plus, the Pistons have been a great bet at home all season, going 24-13 SU & 22-13-2 ATS in 37 home games.

It has been a wise move to fade the Thunder on the road as they are just 12-21-2 ATS as visitors this season.  Soon, the Thunder will start resting their players because they are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West.  Don't be surprised if their studs play limited minutes tonight in this back-to-back situation.

Oklahoma City is 1-9 ATS in road games off a game where both teams scored 100 points or more this season.  Detroit is 10-2 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The Pistons are 11-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  Plays on home underdogs (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Chicago Bulls +7.5

The Chicago Bulls could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  I backed them with success last night as +3 underdogs in a 2-point loss to Atlanta, and I'll back them again tonight because they are catching way too many points (+7.5) against the Pacers again.

Chicago has lost four straight coming in, and that losing streak has it undervalued.  But make no mistake, the Bulls are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are in 9th place in the East and 2.5 games behind the 8th-place Pistons, so they still have a chance.  Look for them to come up with a big effort here tonight.

The Pacers are only outscoring opponents by an average of 3.9 points per game at home this season.  They may win this game against the Bulls, but it's going to come down to the wire, and the +7.5 certainly has a great chance of coming into play.

Indiana is 2-12 ATS after playing four consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Pacers are 16-30 ATS in March games over the last three years.  Indiana is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win.  The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -11.5

The Charlotte Hornets are currently the No. 6 seed in the East.  But there are only 2 games separating 3 through 6 in the East, so they have a good chance of getting home-court advantage in the first round.  That's why the Hornets will not be taking the 76ers lightly tonight.

Of course, the Hornets haven't had any problem overlooking the 76ers in their first two meetings this season.  They won by 25 points at home and by 20 points on the road, outscoring the 76ers by a combined 45 points in their two meetings.  That's an average of 22.5 points per game, and another blowout can be expected here.

The 76ers come in overvalued off a 4-game road trip in which they went 3-0 ATS in their final three games.  They only lost to the Warriors by 12 on Sunday, but now they're in a huge hangover spot here.  They will have a hard time getting up for the Hornets at home after playing the defending champion Warriors on the road.

Philadelphia is 0-10 ATS as a home underdog of 9.5 to 12 points this season, getting outscored by 19.0 points per game on average in this spot.  Charlotte is 9-1 ATS after leading its previous game by 15 points or more at the half this season.  The 76ers are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 vs. Eastern Conference.  Charlotte comes in on 2 days' rest, too, so it will be ready to go tonight.  Roll with the Hornets Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +4

The Boston Celtics still have a lot to play for.  They are currently the #4 seed in the East, just a half-game ahead of 5th-place Miami and a half-game behind 3rd place Atlanta.  They want home-court advantage in the first round at least, and would obviously like to catch the Hawks.

The same cannot be said for the Los Angeles Clippers, who really don't have a lot to play for right now.  They are basically locked into the #4 seed in the West.  They are 5.5 games behind 3rd place Oklahoma City, and 4.5 games ahead of 5th place Memphis.

Because the Clippers' fate has pretty much already been sealed, they have been playing their worst basketball of the season of late.  They are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall, and they've been even worse at the pay window.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.

Boston also has a nice rest advantage here.  It will be playing just its 2nd game in 5 days, while Los Angeles will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, its 4th game in 6 days, and its 6th game in 10 days.

The Clippers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Clippers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing Boston.  Roll with the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls +3

It's now or never for the Chicago Bulls, who are currently in 9th place in the Eastern Conference and 2 games behind the Detroit Pistons for the 8th seed.  With five of their next six games on the road, the Bulls are looking at this home game against the Hawks as a must-win tonight.

Chicago couldn't possibly be more undervalued right now after losing three straight games with two to the Knicks and one to the Magic.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Bulls, and that's why it is time to jump on them while they're catching 3 points at home.

It's the perfect storm, too, because the Hawks couldn't be more overvalued right now.  They have won eight of their last nine games coming in, so the betting public has been making a killing on them as they've gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as well.  It's certainly time to fade the Hawks.

The Bulls are 24-13 at home this season, while the Hawks are 20-17 on the road.  Plays on home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +2.5

The Toronto Raptors are showing great value as home underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  This team shouldn't be a home underdog to almost anyone in the NBA considering the Raptors are 28-8 on the season at home.

The Thunder have been overvalued on the road all season, posting an 11-21-2 ATS record in all road games.  They are certainly overvalued coming into this one because of their 7-game winning streak.  After a 3-game home stand, the Thunder will now get back on the road where they haven't had much success all year.

There's no question that the Raptors will be the more motivated team, too.  The Thunder are pretty much locked into the #3 seed now with a 5.5-game lead over the #4 Clippers.  The Raptors still believe they can get home-court advantage in the East as they are 2.5 games behind the #1 Cavaliers.

Oklahoma City is 0-9 ATS in road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite over the last three seasons.  Toronto is 10-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams who make 46% or more of their shots this season.  The Raptors are 8-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing Toronto.  Take the Raptors Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Heat UNDER 213

The books have really inflated this total tonight between Brooklyn and Miami.  Both teams have gone over the total quite a bit of late, which is the reason they have been forced to set the total higher than it should be as the betting public will continue to bet the over in games these teams are involved.

The Heat have gone over the total in 8 of their last 9 games overall, while the Nets have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7.  But to give you a feel for how this total is inflated, let's look at other totals for these teams.  The Nets haven't had a total set of more than 213 points in any of their last 21 games.  The Heat haven't had a total set of more than 210.5 points in any of their last 15 games with the last one higher than 213 being against the Warriors on February 24.

The head-to-head history in this series also shows that this total is inflated.  The Nets and Heat have combined for 202 or fewer points in 30 of their last 31 meetings.  They have only topped this 213-point total once in their last 38 games, making for a 37-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +21.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are looking at this contest like their championship game.  They will be giving their best effort to beat the defending champion Warriors, who are looking to set an NBA record for wins in the season.  That effort will be good enough to cover this massive 21.5-point spread.

It has certainly been a profitable investment to back the 76ers of late.  They are 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 1-point loss at Denver as 9-point dogs, and a 3-point loss at Portland as 15-point dogs in their last two games.

Teams fail to take the 76ers seriously, and that mindset will cost the Warriors tonight as they don't put them away by 22-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this spread.  The Warriors are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, consistently overvalued due to the record they are trying to break.

The Warriors won each of the last two meetings, but they both went down to the wire.  The 76ers lost by 3 at home and by 5 on the road in their last two meetings.  They were a combined 32-point underdog in those two contests as well.  Philly is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less this season.  Roll with the 76ers Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Charlotte Hornets (41-31) have a lot more to play for right now than the Milwaukee Bucks (30-43).  The Hornets are in 6th place in the East, but only 1.5 games behind the Hawks for the No. 3 seed.  They will be up for tonight's game, while the Bucks will not.

Both the Hornets and Bucks played road games last night and lost to the Pistons and Hawks, respectively.  But the Hornets are a much deeper team than the Bucks, so it won't affect them as much.

Also, the Hornets had two days off before playing yesterday, so they will be the fresher team anyways.  The Bucks will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 5th game in 7 days.  They have lost each of their last four games and have rarely been competitive.

Plays on road favorites (CHARLOTTE) - an explosive offensive team (at least 102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  The road team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings, and Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Milwaukee.  Take the Hornets Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls are in desperate times right now.  They are currently in 9th place in the East, a full two games behind the Detroit Pistons for 8th place.  They cannot afford many more losses right now, especially not against a team like Orlando.

This is a good spot for the Bulls, who come in on one days' rest.  Orlando will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing 97-108 in Miami last night.  The Magic will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, so they are running on fumes right now.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that they are not healthy right now.  They have lost six straight games coming in, and a big reason for that is they've been without Nikola Vucevic.  But both Victor Oladipo and Ersan Ilyasova are questionable to play tonight as well.

Chicago is 34-18 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Orlando is 2-11 ATS in Saturday home games over the last three years.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2

The Detroit Pistons are showing excellent value today as only 2-point home favorites over the Charlotte Hornets.  They are currently clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the East with both Chicago and Washington right on their heels, so they cannot afford to lose this game at home.

It has been nice to see what the Pistons have been capable of of late when they've played with a sense of urgency.  Indeed, they are 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They have been solid at home all season with a 23-12 record, while the Hornets are just 14-19 on the road.

The Pistons are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Detroit is 21-12 ATS in all home games this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +9.5

The Utah Jazz have saved their best basketball for last, and it couldn't have come at a better time.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall to move into 8th place in the Western Conference standings.  But they know their work isn't done, and they'll continue to play well tonight while catching a whopping 9.5 points from the Thunder.

The Jazz are really feeling good after coming back from double-digits down to beat Houston 89-87 last night.  The Rockets are the primary team they are fighting with to make the playoffs.  While this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back now, the Jazz should be fine because they are healthy and they had two days off before that Houston game.

I really do not like the mindset of the Thunder right now.  They can't reach the No. 2 seed, and they have the No. 3 seed pretty much locked up because they are 5.5 games ahead of 4th-place Los Angeles.  They are kind of stuck in La La Land here with not much to play for the rest of the way.  Plus, they could be looking ahead to their showdown with San Antonio on Saturday.

This has been a closely-contested series as four of the last five meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  The Thunder are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Oklahoma City is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following a win.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Jazz Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -13

I really love the mindset of the Indiana Pacers right now.  They aren't taking anything for granted right now after missing the playoffs by one game last year, and with Chicago, Detroit and Washington right on their heels to make the playoffs this season.  They are only one game ahead of the 9th-place Bulls.

"We all understand how important every single game is," Indiana coach Frank Vogel said at Tuesday's practice. "We talk frequently about the fact that we missed the playoffs by one game last year."

"Right now we don't have the feeling of our spot is guaranteed, and it's good," George said. "We should have a little pressure. Hopefully that makes us perform better."

That's why they won't be overlooking the Pelicans, who are a mash unit right now.  Nearly all of New Orleans' best players are sidelined. Anthony Davis recently joined starting guards Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon as being out for the season, second-leading scorer Ryan Anderson could be shut down due to a groin injury, and Norris Cole has missed eight straight games with back soreness.

New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive overs this season.  Indiana is 13-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Better yet, the Pacers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Roll with the Pacers Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics PK

The Boston Celtics want revenge from a 91-105 loss at Toronto on March 18 just five days ago.  They have blown out both Philadelphia (by 15) and Orlando (by 11) since then, and now they are primed to get their payback on the Raptors at home this time around.

The Celtics have been danger at home of late, going 15-2 in their last 17 home games.  This is a great price for them at just a pick 'em given that home success.  Plus, they are fighting for the #3 seed in the East as they are in a four-way battle with three other teams who also have 41 wins, just like them.  So they could be the #3 seed or the #6 seed, which is a huge difference.

The Raptors come in overvalued due to having won four straight and seven of their last eight.  But they have some key injuries right now that could hamper them going forward.  James Johnson, Patrick Patterson and Jonas Valanciunas are all questionable, while DeMarre Carroll remains out.

The Celtics are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Boston is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games overall.  The Raptors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 trips to Boston.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards PK

The Washington Wizards are in a home-and-home situation here with the Atlanta Hawks.  The Wizards won 117-102 in Atlanta two nights ago.  Usually I'd take the team that lost the first meeting in these situations, but not this time.

That's because the Wizards are still fighting to make the playoffs, so they won't have the usual letdown that comes with winning the first game of a home-and-home.  The Wizards are in 10th place in the East, currently 1.5 games behind both the 8th-place Bulls and 9th-place Pistons.

But Washington has at least given itself a fighting chance by playing its best basketball of the season over the past couple weeks.  It is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games with four of those wins coming by double-digits.  The Wizards will be looking to move above .500 for the first time in four months now.  A big reason for their resurgence is that they are finally healthy, while the Hawks could be without Dennis Schroder (questionable) due to an ankle injury.

The Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

The Brooklyn Nets have not quit on their season even with their poor record.  They certainly will be primed for a solid performance today as they are as healthy as they've been all season, and they have had two days' rest in between games having last played on Saturday.

The Charlotte Hornets are in an awful spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They used a lot of energy in erasing a 23-point deficit and coming back to beat the Spurs 91-88 at home last night.  Off such an emotional, draining win, look for them to be very flat tonight against the Nets.

The Nets have played the Hornets tough in recent meeting as the last three were decided by 8, 5 and 3 points.  Plays on any team (BROOKLYN) - after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 64-31 (67.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Plays against road favorites (CHARLOTTE) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 56-25 (69.1%) ATS over the last five years.  The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.  Brooklyn is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +6.5

The Washington Wizards have given themselves a fighting chance to make the playoffs after winning each of their last four games overall, including three by double-digits.  They beat the Pistons by 43, the Bulls by 21 and the Knicks by 10 during this stretch.

Now the Wizards currently sit in 10th place in the East, just 1.5 games behind both 9th-place Detroit and 8th-place Chicago.  They still have a lot of work to do, and going on the road and beating the Atlanta Hawks today would certainly help.  It's safe to say they'll be laying it all on the line to get a victory.

I believe the Hawks are overvalued right now due to the way they have been playing of late.  They have actually gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and the betting public has certainly taken notice.  Now they are laying a few too many points to the Wizards tonight in a game that will go down to the wire.

Washington is 45-28 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on 1 days rest.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 54-29 (65.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Wizards Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Detroit Pistons are currently in 9th place in the East, just percentage points behind the Chicago Bulls for the 8th spot.  They have won two in a row coming in and will certainly be highly motivated the rest of the way to try and get into the playoffs.

Now the Pistons get to take on a Milwaukee Bucks team that is out of it at 30-40 on the season.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing 85-94 at home to the Jazz last night, while the Pistons had yesterday off.  That rest advantage is big here.

Detroit has won each of its last two meetings with Milwaukee this season.  It won 102-91 on the road and 102-95 at home.  In fact, the Pistons are 32-12 straight up in their last 44 home meetings with the Bucks.

Detroit is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  The Pistons are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season, winning by nearly 15 points per game.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -15

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing two straight and three of their last four overall.  It has come against a brutal schedule with Atlanta, Boston, Toronto and Oklahoma City, but now the Pacers get a break as they get to play the worst team in the NBA in the 76ers.

What I like about laying this big number here is that the Pacers cannot afford to overlook the 76ers.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the East, only a half-game ahead of both Chicago and Detroit, and two games ahead of Washington.  So they are very close to missing the playoffs altogether.

Overlooking the 76ers has not been something the Pacers have done, anyways.  They have won each of the last three meetings by double-digits, including a 27-point road win and a 20-point home victory in the last two meetings.  The 76ers just lost by 15 to the Celtics at home last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.

The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Philadelphia is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 vs. Eastern Conference.  Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks +1

After losing seven of their last eight games overall, the Dallas Mavericks are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs right now.  They are clinging on to the No. 8 seed with just a one-game lead over the Utah Jazz.

It's safe to say that the Mavericks will be laying it all on the line today to get a victory and stop the bleeding.  They do get to play a Portland team that they have had a lot of success against, winning three of the last four meetings.  The Mavericks are 32-12 in their last 44 home meetings with the Blazers.

This is a tough spot for the Blazers.  They will be playing the fourth game of their 4-game road trip after playing OKC, San Antonio and New Orleans in the first three.  This will also be their 3rd game in 4 days, so they have to be starting to wear down, especially since they are short-handed without starter Meyers Leonard.

Dallas is 102-68 ATS in its last 170 games following a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  It's worth noting that its last game was against Golden State Friday, and it has faced six straight playoff contenders.  The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Mavs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Blazers.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Heat UNDER 209.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat.  These are two teams who are very familiar with one another, and when they get together, the end result is usually a low-scoring affair.

Indeed, each of the last seven meetings have seen 206 or fewer combined points, including 183 and 194-point outputs in their two meetings during the 2015-16 season.  They have averaged 195.9 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which is nearly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 209.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 105 points or more three straight games are 38-13 (74.5%) over the last five seasons.

Miami is 16-3 UNDER vs. teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 56-33 UNDER in its last 89 games when playing its 5th game in 7 days.  Miami is 12-2 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 49-23 in Cavaliers last 72 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Warriors/Mavs NBA Friday No-Brainer on Dallas +9

The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued right now for a number of reasons.  They are close to setting the record for best record in a season, which is one of them, but they've also covered the spread in four of their last five coming in.

The betting public has made a fortune on this team all season and will continue pounding them, which creates artificial line value a lot of the time.  That's especially the case tonight as the Mavs are catching 9 points at home in a game I think they can win outright.

The Mavs are clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the West, which will have them motivated the rest of the way, if facing the defending champion Warriors isn't enough.  All six of Golden State's losses have come on the road this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 7.8 points per game on average.  The Warriors may also be looking ahead to San Antonio tomorrow night, which makes this a bad spot for them.

Golden State is 0-7 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games this season.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3.5

The Charlotte Hornets could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have won eight of their last nine games overall, and we're starting to see them being overvalued as a result.  They lost outright by 11 to Dallas at home as 5.5-point favorites, and failed to cover last night as 9.5-point home favorites in an 8-point win over the Magic.

The fact that they played last night is important.  That means the Hornets will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  That's one of the toughest situations in the NBA today, and the Hornets stand little to no chance of competing with Miami tonight because of it.  Yet, they are only 3.5-point underdogs because they are overvalued.

Miami, on the other hand, comes in well-rested and ready to go after having two days off since their last game against the Nuggets.  The Heat have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Toronto and Milwaukee.  But the Heat are 22-12 at home this season, while the Hornets are 12-19 on the road.

To say that Miami has owned Charlotte at home would be a massive understatement.  The Heat are 14-0 in their last 14 home meetings with the Hornets dating back to 2010.  The Hornets are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings with Miami.  Take the Heat Thursday.

15* Clippers/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -3

The Houston Rockets are flying under the radar as only 3-point favorites over the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They had been very inconsistent all season, but now that their playoff lives are at stake, they have really turned it on here of late.

The Rockets are currently clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the West, just two games ahead of 9th-place Utah.  They're only in this position because they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They picked up impressive road wins at Boston and Toronto, while also topping Memphis by a whopping 49 points in their lone home game during this stretch.

The Clippers are absolutely gassed right now.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Not to mention, they used a lot of energy trying to beat Cleveland and San Antonio their last two games, only to come up way short.  They lost by 24 at home to Cleveland and by 21 at San Antonio.  They are lacking depth right now as Blake Griffin and Austin Rivers are out, while Paul Pierce is questionable.

Houston simply has Los Angeles' number.  The Rockets came back from a 3-1 deficit to win in seven games in the second round of the playoffs last year to advance to the Western Conference Finals.  They have won two of three meetings thus far this season, including a 107-97 victory in their lone home meeting.

The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings with Houston.  Take the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers currently sit in 7th place in the Eastern Conference.  They are just 1.5 games ahead of the No. 8 Chicago Bulls and the No. 9 Detroit Pistons.  They are also only 4 games behind Boston for the No. 3 seed in the East, so anything is possible for them going forward.

One thing is certain, given their current position, the Pacers are going to be motivated to take care of business tonight against the Celtics.  I like their chances considering they are 19-11 at home this season, while the Celtics are 16-16 on the road.

The Celtics have been playing well lately, but they've done all of their damage at home.  The Pacers are 28-14 in their last 42 home meetings with Boston, and they've won four of their last five home meetings of late.  The home team has won six of the last eight meetings as well.

There is one key injury for Boston here that is getting overlooked.  Jae Crowder will miss a couple weeks with a sprained ankle.  He usually matches up with superstar Paul George, but now the Celtics have nobody to defend him.  Look for George to have a monster game in leading the Pacers to a win and cover.

The Pacers are 22-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Celtics are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have lost two straight coming in with a 96-99 home loss to Minnesota, and an 85-93 road loss to San Antonio.  Look for them to get back on track in a big way tonight.

The Blazers come in overvalued because they have played well in the second half of the season.  But they have lost four of their last six games overall with all four losses coming on the road.  The Blazers are now 14-20 on the road this season, while the Thunder are 26-9 at home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won four straight meetings.  That includes a 16-point win and an 11-point win in the last two meetings in Oklahoma City, and another double-digit home victory for the Thunder can be expected here.

The Blazers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Blazers are 5-11-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to OKC.  The favorite is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +7

The Dallas Mavericks are in desperate need of a win today to put an end to a 5-game losing streak.  They currently hold the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, just two games ahead of the Utah Jazz.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight.

The Mavericks are way undervalued right now due to this 5-game skid.  At the same time, the Hornets are way overvalued right now due to their 7-game winning streak coming in.  It's the perfect storm and has created some very nice line value on the Mavs +7 here.

Dallas has won 19 of its last 22 meetings with Charlotte overall.  The Mavs are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Charlotte while going 8-2 SU in their last 10 road meetings in this series.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2.5

It's now or never for the Utah Jazz, who need to play perfect basketball down the stretch to make the playoffs.  They are 2.5 games behind the Houston Rockets for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Utah got back on track with an emphatic 114-93 home victory over the Washington Wizards on Friday night.  I look for them to build off of that win and to take care of business against the lowly Sacramento Kings, who are well out of the playoff hunt.

The Kings have been playing like their season is done over the last several weeks.  They are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with seven of those losses coming by 6 points or more.

Utah is 54-26 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons, including 26-7 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two years.  The Kings are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss.  Sacramento is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Orlando Magic +8

The Portland Trail Blazers are in a big hangover spot today from their 112-128 loss to the Golden State Warriors last night.  After playing the best team in the NBA, they will have a hard time getting motivated to face the Orlando Magic.

The Magic are still trying to make a push to make the playoffs at 28-36 on the season.  They picked up a big 107-100 road win at Sacramento last night, and now they'll carry that momentum into this game.  They had two days off before the Sacramento game, and they get two days off after this game, so look for them to be dialed in and focused.

The Magic have had the Blazers' number in recent meetings while winning two straight and three of the last four.  They won 102-94 as 4.5-point favorites in their most recent meeting, and 111-104 as 8.5-point dogs in the meeting prior.

Orlando is a sensational 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Portland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games.  The Magic are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 vs. NBA Northwest opponents.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on 0 days' rest.  The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Orlando is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Magic Saturday.

15* Thunder/Spurs ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +8.5

Because the Oklahoma City Thunder were upset last night by the Minnesota Timberwolves, they come into this game against the San Antonio Spurs way undervalued as 8.5-point dogs.  It's time to jump on them while the betting public is down on them.

But that game against the Timberwolves was the ideal letdown spot for the Thunder.  They were coming off a big win over the Clippers on Wednesday, and they knew they had the Spurs on deck the next night.  It was a classic sandwich game, and the Thunder simply did not show up.  But after losing to the Wolves, they will be re-focused and ready to go tonight.

OKC is 61-39 ATS in its last 100 games following a home loss, and 37-20 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win, and 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very bad spot here.  They are in a sandwich game and won't bring their best effort.  They just lost to Oklahoma City on Wednesday in their last game, and now they'll be looking ahead to Sunday's showdown with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

In between those two massive games, they must face the lowly New York Knicks.  The Knicks will be the team looking forward to this game.  They are playing better of late, too, winning in blowout fashion over Detroit (102-89) and Phoenix (128-97) in two of their last three games.

The Knicks are a sensational 18-9 ATS as road underdogs this season.  New York is 33-13 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs. opponent of 20 points or more since 1996.  The Knicks are 26-16 ATS when revenging a loss in all games this season.  The Knicks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

15* Blazers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 227

Rarely do I take OVERs in the NBA, but I couldn't help myself tonight.  It's especially rare that I take an OVER when the total is this high like the 227-point total they have set for tonight's game between the Warriors and Blazers.  It's still not high enough.

One quick look at recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that they should have no problem exceeding 227 points.  They have combined for 242 and 236 points in their two meetings this season.  That's an average of 239 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than tonight's posted total of 227.

The OVER is 10-3 in Blazers last 13 games overall, including 5-0 in Blazers last five vs. Western Conference foes.  The OVER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings, and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Golden State.  Portland is 8-1 OVER after a combined score off 225 or more points this season.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Raptors UNDER 199.5

The Atlanta Hawks have been the best defensive team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  Indeed, the Hawks have allowed an average of 86.5 points per game in regulation while winning five of their last six games overall.  Having Thabo Sefolosha play bigger minutes has certainly been a key in that.

The Toronto Raptors get a lot of love for their offense, but they play at the second-slowest pace in the NBA at 95.4 possessions per game.  Their defense has been great all season, giving up 98.3 points per game overall and 97.8 points per game at home.

Recent meetings between would certainly suggest that the oddsmakers have set this total too high.  They have combined for 182, 185 and 199 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 188.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 188.7.

Toronto is 8-1 to the UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams who are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Hawks last 14 games following an ATS win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Clippers/Thunder ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be out for serious revenge on the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They blew a 20-plus point lead against the Clippers on March 2nd exactly one week ago today to lost 98-103 on the road.

The Thunder were outscored 35-13 in the 4th quarter alone, and that memory is fresh in their minds.  It's safe to say that you can expect a huge effort from OKC tonight to try and avenge that defeat, this time at home.

The Thunder are 25-8 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 8.5 points per game.  They have had two days off since beating the Bucks 104-96 on the road, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  In fact, this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days as well.

Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on 2 days' rest.  The Clippers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  The Thunder are 27-9-2 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday when they host the Detroit Pistons.  That's because they have lost three in a row coming in with two of those losses coming by a combined 5 points.  It's safe to say they are going to want to get back in the win column in a hurry.

In fact, going through the Mavs' entire season, I find that they have not lost four in a row at any point this year.  That shows that they have been a very resilient team, and it also shows that the chances of them losing four in a row now is highly unlikely.

This 3-game losing streak has the Mavs undervalued as only 2.5-point home favorites, and couple that with the fact that the Pistons are 5-2 in their last seven games and overvalued, and it's clear to see that we are getting the Mavs at a big discount at home tonight.  The Pistons are just 13-20 SU & 13-20 ATS on the road this year.

Detroit is 4-12 ATS in road games off a non-conference game this season.  Dallas is 102-67 ATS in its last 169 games following a loss by 15 points or more.  The Pistons are 5-17 ATS in road games vs. teams who allow 99-plus points per game this season.  The Mavericks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Grizzlies/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -9

The Memphis Grizzlies are in shambles right now.  They are expected to be without their three best players tonight.  They were already without Marc Gasol, but now Mike Conley has been ruled out, and Zach Randolph is doubtful.  Not to mention Brendan Wright is out and Matt Barnes is questionable.

Somehow, the Grizzlies were able to beat the Cavaliers 106-103 on the road last time out without Gasol and Conley.  That is highly unlikely to happen again here against the superior Celtics.  That win over the Cavs also sets the Grizzlies up for a massive letdown spot.  After all, this team just lost at home 100-109 to lowly Phoenix prior to that Cavs game.

The Celtics just keep rolling along and not getting any love despite being one of the best teams in the East.  They have gone 16-5 in their last 21 games overall.  They are coming off a loss on the road to Cleveland, but you have to go all the way back to January 18-20 to find the last time they lost two games in a row.  They have also had three days' rest since that defeat to the Cavs, so they will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

Memphis is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  Boston is 50-33 ATS in its last 83 games when revenging a loss.  The Grizzlies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Celtics are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah Jazz -1

The Utah Jazz could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have lost five of their last six games overall, but ended their 5-game skid with a 106-94 win in New Orleans last time out to get back on track.  It's also worth nothing that they are coming off a tough 4-game road trip.

But now the Jazz are well-rested and ready to get back on track having last played on Saturday.  They also return home where they are 19-12 on the season.  The Jazz are currently the 9th seed in the West, so they really need to get it going.  They are 1.5 games behind Houston for the No. 8 seed.

Conversely, the Atlanta Hawks couldn't be more overvalued right now.  They are coming off back-to-back double-digit blowouts on the road against both Los Angeles teams.  They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, so the betting public is going to be all over them, which is why this line is only -1.

Atlanta is 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage between 40% and 49% this season.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Atlanta) - off an upset win as a road underdog are 175-120 (59.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Bet the Jazz Tuesday.

20* NBA No Brainer on Grizzlies +12.5

Memphis has been playing a lot better recently, with the lone exception when they play the Suns.  But, yesterday was probably a lookahead to today's game, so I'm not too worried about the hiccup.  

Cleveland has won three in a row at home after their back-to-back road losses against Toronto and Washington, but this is a big number for them to be laying here tonight.  There were only favored by 16 over the Lakers back on February 10th and Memphis is definitely more than 3.5 points better than LA.

These two teams played back on October 28th with Cleveland winning by 30 points.  That puts us in a nice revenge spot here tonight as underdogs revenging a home blowout loss of 20+ points against an opponent off a home win are 49-22 (69%) over the last 5 years.  

I'll take the big number here as Memphis keeps this game close.

15* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Pistons +1

I normally don’t love teams coming off a back-to-back, but it’s Portland who should be tired coming into this game.  The Blazers are playing their sixth road game in 9 nights, and while they have played well on the trip they have to be wearing down and looking forward to getting back home.

The Pistons have done surprisingly well in back-to-backs recently.  They dominated the Raptors 114-101 last week and pulled a 96-88 upset in Cleveland the time before that.  Detroit’s actually covered in four straight in this spot.

This is an important game for Detroit.  They blew one they should have won last night in New York, and if they have any intention of making the playoffs they need to get one back here on Sunday.  I think they respond with the win here.

15* Late Night Total Bailout on Clippers/Hawks Under 199.5

I think the oddsmakers have set the bar a little high for this total on Saturday night.  Atlanta has played solid defense all season long, giving up just 99.4 ppg to teams that are averaging 101.9, but in their last 5 games they have allowed on 90.4 while scoring 98.6.  That includes two games against the Warriors too, the other 3 teams didn't get past 88.

The Clippers are also dialing it up on the defensive end since the break.  They allowed 86 to the Spurs, 84 to the Suns, 87 to the Nuggets, 95 to the Nets, and 98 to the Thunder.  The only times they have given up 100 were to the Warriors and Kings.  Two teams that play a lot faster pace than the Clippers do.

Take the Under here tonight.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2

I like Washington to bounce back here tonight against Indiana.  The Wizards have been playing a lot better recently, winning 7 of their last 10 games.  Indiana on the other hand has now lost four of their last five after losing in Charlotte last night.

Washington beat Indiana by double digits on the road in mid-January which puts us in a nice situation here tonight.  The Pacers are just 1-11 ATS when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite this season.

Indiana has played a lot since the All-Star break, but they are only 5-13 ATS this season when playing their 8th game in two weeks.

Lot of factors point towards the Wizards tonight, so we will lay the 2 points.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors -5

The Toronto Raptors are playing better than anyone in the Eastern Conference right now.  They are 19-4 in their last 23 games overall and have their sights set on catching the Cleveland Cavaliers for the No. 1 seed in the East.

The Portland Trail Blazers are also playing well, but their recent run is more fools' gold than anything.  And now the Blazers are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  I faded them against the Celtics in their last game, a 93-116 loss as 6.5-point underdogs.

I'll fade them again tonight because this remains a bad spot for the Blazers.  They are running on fumes right now as this will be their 6th road game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They started showing signs of wearing down in the 2nd half against Boston, and it will carry over into this game tonight as well.

The Blazers are 2-13 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 210

The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics will play part in a defensive battle tonight.  That's what usually happens when these two teams get together, and looking at recent meetings, it's easy to see that this 210-point total has been inflated.

The Celtics are known for shutting teams down, and they rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they are 25th in the league as 95.9 possessions per game.  The Knicks are also just 21st in offensive efficiency.  They have been held to an average of 83.0 points per game in their last two, while the Celtics have allowed only 92.3 points/game in their last three.

The real key is the head-to-head history.  The Celtics and Knicks have combined for 209 or fewer points in 20 of the last 21 meetings, including 186 points in their most recent meeting on February 2nd.  That makes for a 20-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 210 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 230

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors tonight.  I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be way more of a defensive battle than the oddsmakers and the betting public are expecting.

The betting public looks at the last game between these teams on Saturday and sees a final score of 118-121 in favor of the Warriors for 239 combined points.  But you have to realize that game went to overtime, and it was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for 206 combined points.  So this total should be set closer to 206 than 230.

Familiarity favors a low-scoring game, too, and since these teams just played five days ago, they are very familiar with one another.  Plus, Steph Curry and Andre Iguodala both may miss a 2nd consecutive game.  Without those two last time out, they were tied with the Hawks 97-97 at the end of regulation for 194 combined points before eventually winning 109-105 in overtime.

These two teams are forming quite a rivalry, which brings out the best in each defensively.  The Thunder do like to get up and down offensively, but they likely won't have a lot left in the tank to do so tonight.  That's because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing 98-103 on the road to the Clippers last night for 201 combined points.

These teams have combined for 224 or fewer points at the end of regulation in five of their last six meetings.  That's why there is a ton of value with this UNDER 230.  Curry played and scored a ridiculous 46 points against the Thunder on Saturday, but even then that game was only at 206 at the end of regulation.  So even if Curry plays tonight, I still like this UNDER quite a bit.  If he doesn't, that's just an added bonus and and easy winner for us.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -7

The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game.  It helps that they are healthy, but they also made a very sneaky move before the trade deadline to grab David Lee, who has provided huge contributions off the bench already.

Dallas is averaging 117.5 points per game and shooting 47.6 percent over its last eight games.  The Mavericks have won three straight while scoring at least 121 points in four of their last five.  They are coming off a 27-point win over the Timberwolves and a 13-point win over the Magic.

Now they get to face the reeling Sacramento Kings, who have lost four straight to fall five games back of the final playoff spot in the West.  They have rarely been competitive as they've lost by 16, 10, 15 and 6 points despite playing three games at home.  This is a very tough spot for the Kings, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a valiant comeback in the second half came up short in a 98-104 loss at Memphis last night.

Dallas will be looking to extend the NBA's second-longest home winning streak against any franchise.  The Mavericks have won 22 straight home meetings with the Kings, and with the way they are playing right now, I look for that streak to extend to 23 tonight in blowout fashion.

The Kings are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Sacramento is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in home games off a home win this season.  These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing Dallas.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics -5.5

This play is as much of a fade of the Blazers as it is a play on the Celtics.  This couldn't be a worse spot for the Blazers, and the Celtics are playing some great basketball heading in.  It's the perfect storm and the reason I believe Boston should be a bigger favorite tonight.

The Celtics have won three straight and are now 14-4 in their last 18 games overall.  They are clearly one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference because of their defense, ranking 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  I love this matchup for the Celtics because of Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, two of the best guard defenders in the NBA as they'll be matched up with the duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.

Look for Bradley and Smart to take this matchup personal in shutting down Lillard and McCollum.  Their job will be much easier tonight considering the Blazers are running on fumes.  Indeed, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 5 days.  That's about as tough a situation as you'll find in the NBA, and there's no question the Blazers are primed for one of their worst performances in a long time because of it.

Boston is 20-10 at home this season.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS when the total is 210 or more this season.  The Blazers are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  Portland is 6-14 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

The Celtics are 9-0 ATS vs. teams who win 51% to 60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Boston is 7-0 ATS vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game this season.  The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing Boston.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5

The Dallas Mavericks are back on track with wins in three of their last four games with two coming via blowout by 26 and 27 points.  Now they get to face another weak team from the Eastern Conference tonight and should take care of business.

The Mavs have averaged 120.5 points per game in their last four contests.  Chandler Parsons is playing is best basketball of the season, and David Lee has proven to be a huge acquisition as he has brought a lot of scoring punch off the bench.  This team is really hitting its stride right now.

The Mavs will be out for revenge from a 104-110 overtime loss at Orlando on February 19 in their first game back from the All-Star Break.  That was an extremely rare loss for Dallas in this series.  Indeed, the Mavericks were 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their previous seven meetings with the Magic.

The Magic are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Dallas is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Heat UNDER 201

The Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Miami.  These teams are known for their defense, and they are also known to play in low-scoring affairs almost every time they get together.

Miami ranks 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 100.2 points per 100 possessions.  Chicago ranks 10th in defensive efficiency while giving up just 43.2% shooting on the season.  The Heat rank 27th in pace this season as well, so they prefer to play at a slow tempo, which helps out their defense.

The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  The Bulls and Heat have combined for 194 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings.  They have averages just 176.4 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, which is roughly 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Heat last six vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Combine these three trends with the UNDER being 6-0 in the last six meetings, and we have a perfect 20-0 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 204.5

The Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz are very familiar with one another after recently playing their first of two meetings this season. The Jazz won that game 111-93 for 204 combined points on February 19 behind one of their best shooting efforts of the season as they connected on 54.4% from the floor.  That's not going to happen again, especially not in Boston this time around.

The fact of the matter is that this is a very high total between two teams that pride themselves on defense.  Boston ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Utah gives up just 98.1 points per game on 44.7% shooting.  The Jazz take the air out of the ball offensively, ranking 30th in the NBA in pace at 93.3 possessions per game.

The Jazz and Celtics have combined for 204 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last eight meetings.  They have combined to average 189.4 points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 204.5.

The UNDER is 12-3 in Jazz last 15 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 15-7-1 in Jazz last 23 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Boston.  Utah is 28-14 to the UNDER after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Knicks UNDER 198.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Miami Heat and New York Knicks.  I fully expect a defensive battle, which has certainly been the case when these teams have gotten together in recent history.  That should continue Sunday.

Miami has made its living on defense, ranking 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  The Knicks, who rank 18th in offensive efficiency, will certainly struggle in this one.  Both teams also prefer to play at a slow pace and take the air out of the ball.  The Heat rank 28th in pace at 95.2 possessions per game, while the Knicks are 25th at 95.9 possessions per contest.

Back to the head-to-head history.  The Heat and Knicks have combined for 198 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 188, 175 and 173 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 178.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.5.

Miami is 11-2 UNDER when revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite this season.  Miami is 19-7 to the UNDER in its last 26 Sunday games.  The Heat are 18-4 UNDER versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Heat are 14-3 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers this season.

The UNDER is 39-18-1 in Heat last 58 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Knicks last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings in New York.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +1

The Detroit Pistons should not be home underdogs to the Toronto Raptors tonight.  They are playing very well coming into this game, and this is an awful spot for the Raptors as well.

The Pistons are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They went on the road and beat Cleveland and Milwaukee by a combined 19 points, while also topping Philadelphia by 20 points at home.  They are clearly making a run at the playoffs right now and aren't about to be denied.

The Raptors are way overvalued right now.  They have won four in a row coming in, but they are in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off a huge 99-97 home win over Cleveland in which Kyle Lowry hit a game-winner at the buzzer.  Now, I fully expect the Raptors to fail to show up tonight off such a big win against the top team in the East.

Plays on any team (DETROIT) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog are 73-37 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pistons are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 home games.  Also, the Raptors could be without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (23.2 ppg), who missed Saturday's practice due to an illness.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 211.5

The scoring in the NBA is up of late, which is going to provide some nice line value on the UNDERS.  This game between the Celtics and Heat particularly stands out because these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, yet the total has been set at 211.5.

Boston ranks 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.2 points per 100 possessions.  Miami is right behind at 6th, giving up 100.5 points per 100 possessions.  While the Celtics prefer a fast pace, that is countered by the Heat, who rank 28th in the league in pace at 95.2 possessions per game.

The real key here is the head-to-head history between these teams.  Miami and Boston typically play in low-scoring games.  Indeed, they have combined for 200 or fewer points in seven straight meetings.  They have combined for 200, 179, 190, 158, 184, 197 and 179 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 28 points less than today's posted total of 211.5.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -5

The Dallas Mavericks get the call as my favorite play in the Western Conference for the entire month of February on Friday night.  They host the Denver Nuggets and will be highly motivated for a victory here.

That's because the Mavericks have lost three of their last four games overall.  But they are well-rested and ready to go here as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Look for that extra rest to have them putting fourth one of their best efforts of the season.

Denver, meanwhile, is in a huge letdown spot off its 87-81 upset road win over the Clippers as 11-point dogs.  This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets, who had lost three straight prior to that unlikely victory.

Dallas is 3-0 in its last three home meetings with Denver, winning by 11, 8 and 16 points, respectively.  Plays on any team (DALLAS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more four straight games are 27-9 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.   Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage of less than .400.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

15* Bulls/Hawks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Atlanta -7

The Atlanta Hawks have lost three straight and five of their last six games overall.  It's safe to say that they will be highly motivated for a victory when the Chicago Bulls visit tonight on the ESPN stage.

The one victory for the Hawks during this stretch was a 113-90 blowout at Chicago as 4-point favorites.  In fact, the Hawks have had the Bulls' number quite a bit here of late.  The Hawks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bulls with all four victories coming by 7 points or more.

Conversely, Chicago comes in overvalued due to having won three straight games, all of which came at home.  But the Bulls 1-6 in their last seven road games with their only win coming against the Kings.  Five of those six road losses came by 7 points or more, so they've rarely been competitive away from home.

The Bulls are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Hawks come in on 3 days' rest.  Atlanta is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a double-digit home loss.  The favorite is 37-15 ATS in the last 52 meetings.  Take the Hawks Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 216

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks.  It's easy to see that this total has been inflated, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what should be a much lower-scoring affair than oddsmakers anticipate.

Both teams are coming off high-scoring games, which has forced the oddsmakers' hands.  The Celtics have combined for 222 and 246 points in their last two games with the Nuggets and Timberwolves, while the Bucks have combined for 209 and 226 points in their last two games against the Hawks and Lakers.

Off a loss to the Timberwolves, look for the Celtics to focus on shoring up their defense tonight.  They still rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  They should shut down a Milwaukee team that ranks 24th in offensive efficiency.  The Bucks prefer to play as a slow pace as they rank 22nd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.

This has been the highest total we've seen in this series in a very long time as the previous high in recent memory was 208.  The Celtics and Bucks have combined for 214 or fewer points in 36 of their last 37 meetings, making for a 36-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 216.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Wizards/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Wizards and Bulls tonight.  For starters, this game will be nationally televised on ESPN, so both teams are going to bring their "A" games defensively.

Recent head-to-head history also suggests that this total has been inflated.  26 of the last 27 meetings between the Wizards and Bulls have seen 204 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 213, which is by far the biggest total in this series in quite some time.

The Wizards are a tired team who will be playing their 5th game in 7 days.  That will prevent them from looking to fast break much at all.  The Wizards have made an emphasis on defense of late, limiting their last five opponents to just 95.4 points per game and 42.4% shooting.

Chicago is 11-2 to the UNDER off a home win scoring 110 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 26-10 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards -4.5

The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value as only 4.5-point home favorites over the hapless New Orleans Pelicans.  Look for them to pick up this victory by 5-plus points to cover this low spread tonight.

Washington is on a mission post-All Star Break.  At 25-29 on the season, it still has work to do just to make the playoffs.  The Wizards have won two of three since the break despite playing a brutal stretch of three games in three days.  They beat the Jazz by 14 and the Pistons by 12 at home before running out of gas and losing at Miami.

But now the Wizards have had two days off since and will be well-rested and ready to get back to dominating at home tonight, where they've won three straight by double-digits.  They  have shot 49.2 percent while holding opponents to an average of 89.7 points on 41.9 percent shooting in their last three at home.

The Pelicans are in a letdown spot off Anthony Davis' 59-point performance in an upset road win at Detroit.  New Orleans is 3-13 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Pelicans are also 1-9 ATS in road games off a road win over the last two years.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest.  The Pelicans are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 vs. Eastern Conference.  Washington is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Wizards Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5

The Boston Celtics have gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I look for them to continue to roll tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves after winning by 20 in Denver last night.

The Timberwolves are one of the worst teams in the Western Conference this season.  They are 17-39 overall and 9-20 in home games.  They have lost their first two games out of the break with a 5-point loss at short-handed Memphis, and an 8-point loss at home to the lowly Knicks.

Boston beat Minnesota 113-99 in their first meeting this season.  Minnesota is 2-11 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season.  Boston is 15-1 ATS when playing its 2nd road games in 2 days over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in road games when the total is at least 210 points this season.  Roll with the Celtics Monday.

15* Cavs/Thunder ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  Rarely will you get the opportunity to back them as only 2.5-point home favorites, but that's the opportunity we are presented with Sunday.

The Thunder are 25-6 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 10 points per game.  They are coming off a rare home loss to the Indiana Pacers.  That was also their first and only game back from the All-Star Break, so they'll be extra motivated for their first win of the second half today.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series too as the home team is 3-0 in the last three meetings, including a 103-94 victory by the Thunder in their last home meeting.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

20* Celtics/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5

The Utah Jazz are an UNDER machine with Rudy Gobert in the lineup.  They have especially been profitable to the UNDER at home this season with a 16-10 record as a result of giving up just 93.4 points per game at home this year.

One reason the Jazz are such a great defensive team is because they prefer to play at a snail's pace.  In fact, they rank dead last in the league in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  But the Celtics are no slouches defensively themselves as they rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The Celtics and Jazz have played in some very low-scoring games in recent meetings.  They have combined for 169 and 189 points in their last two meetings.  That's an average of 179 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.

Utah is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games this season.  The Jazz are 26-14 to the UNDER as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.