15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Bobcats +14.5

This is the perfect opportunity to fade the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. Sure, the Charlotte Bobcats have been the worst team in the league against the spread all season, but I have no problem backing them tonight considering how tough a spot this is for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 6 days tonight. After beating the Clippers, Lakers and Knicks n its last three contests, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Thunder. Plus, they will be fatigued, so they won't be able to give the kind of effort it takes to win this game by 15-plus points tonight.

Because Charlotte is the worst team in the league against the spread, that means the betting public will be fading them from here on out. That provides us with ample value to back the Bobcats at a great price tonight. They will be out for revenge for an embarrassing 69-114 loss at Oklahoma City in their first meeting of the season on November 26th as well.

This play falls into a system that is 45-19 (70.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to be on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. Also, Oklahoma City is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off a road win by 3 points or less. Take the Bobcats Friday.

15* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing solid value as a 4.5-point underdog tonight against the Denver Nuggets in a game that will go right down to the wire. I fully expect the Clippers to win this game outright, but I'll simply take the points for some insurance.

Denver comes in overvalued due to its current 6-game winning streak. Four of those six wins came against teams with losing records. Now, the Nuggets will meet their match tonight in the Clippers. Los Angeles has won nine of its last 11 games overall with its only losses coming to San Antonio and Oklahoma City, which are top two teams in the Western Conference.

This is clearly an excellent matchup for the Clippers considering they have won six of the last eight meetings in this series dating back to 2011, which includes a 2-1 road mark. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in its last 6 meetings in Denver. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings as well.

This lay falls into a system that is 72-28 (72%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams (LA CLIPPERS) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games.

The Clippers are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Roll with the Clippers Thursday.

15* Bulls/Spurs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Chicago +8

The Chicago Bulls should not be catching this many points against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. San Antonio played well in its first game without Tony Parker with a 114-75 home victory over the lowly Detroit Pistons. It is now overvalued heading into its second straight game without Parker because of it.

Parker has arguably been as valuable a player to his team as any other player in the league. A good team like the Bulls will be able to exploit the loss of Parker in this one.

Chicago is one of the most resilient teams in the league. Off a 92-97 loss at Indiana on Sunday, and looking for revenge from an 89-103 home loss to the Spurs in their first meeting of the season on February 11th, I look for a tremendous effort from the Bulls tonight.

Tom Thibodeau is 45-24 ATS off a loss as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls are 54-26-2 ATS in their last 82 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 9-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less this season. It is coming back to win 96.1 to 85.2 in this spot, or by an average of 10.9 points/game. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +16

The Orlando Magic are showing awesome value Wednesday as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat. I'll gladly back them at this price in a game that I look to be close throughout.

Miami is clearly overvalued due to its current 15-game winning streak coming in. It has created expectations for itself in the eyes of the betting public and thus oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to.

Orlando has played Miami tough in recent meetings. Each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 13 points or less, and two of the last three went to overtime. That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Magic dating back to 2010.

Miami is 4-15 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Magic are 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings with the Heat. Roll with the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Hawks UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks. These are two of the better defensive teams in the league, and I look for both defenses to prevail by game's send as neither team tops 95 points in this one.

Philadelphia allows 95.9 points/game while Atlanta yields 96.7 points/game this season. The 76ers really struggle offensively, scoring 92.1 points/game overall, including 90.2 points/game on the road. Atlanta puts up 97.4 points/game this season. Philly has scored 93 or fewer points in 13 of its last 15 games overall. It has also allowed less than 100 points in 12 of its last 15 games overall.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 185 or fewer combined points. They have combined for 179, 185, 185 and 166 points in their last four meetings, averaging 178.8 points/game in the process.

The UNDER is 4-0 in 76ers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. These three trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics +9.5

The Indiana Pacers would have to beat the Boston Celtics by double-digits tonight to hand us a loss. I'll take my chances by backing these red-hot Celtics at a great price tonight.

Boston is 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games overall. This team remains underrated because it is playing without Rajon Rondo, but that loss has only brought this team closer together. The offense has really been clicking, averaging 102.4 points/game in their last five contests.

"That's the new us in a lot of ways, the ball finds the open guy," head coach Doc Rivers said. "It's simple, but it's hard to do unless you buy in. Everyone has bought in."

Sure, this is a back-to-back situation for Boston off a 109-101 win at Philadelphia last night, but it's really a non-factor despite clearly getting factored into this line. That's because it will still only be the 2nd game in 5 days for Boston as it last played on March 1st prior to that win over the 76ers. The Celtics won't be fatigued at all tonight.

This is clearly an excellent matchup for the Celtics. They have won three straight and eight of their last 11 meetings with the Pacers. The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets/Kings UNDER 223

The books have clearly set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Denver Nuggets and Sacramento Kings. The betting public has been jumping all over the OVER in this contest, providing us with ample value to go against the grain and back the UNDER tonight folks.

Just one look at the season averages for these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Denver is scoring 105.5 points/game and allowing 101.6 points/game this season, combining with its opponents for 207.1 points/game. Sacramento is scoring 98.5 points/game and allowing 104.9 points/game, combining with its foes for 203.4 points/game.

A look at the recent history between these teams and it's also easy to see that the number is inflated. Not counting overtime, Sacramento and Denver have combined for 219 or fewer points in seven straight meetings dating back to 2011. They have combined to average 205.7 points/game at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams, and familiarity favors lower-scoring games. Denver won both meetings 121-93 at home and 122-97 on the road. The first meeting had a posted total of 204.5, with the second being 212.5. Now, in the third meeting, the books have set the number 18.5 points higher (223), providing us with plenty of value to pull the trigger on the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Raptors/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -6

The Golden State Warriors come into this game with the Toronto Raptors highly motivated for a victory. They want to get back on track following a tough 5-game road trip in which they lost their final four games. I like their chances of getting back on track in a big way against this struggling Raptors squad.

Toronto has lost four straight while going 0-4 ATS in the process in its last four games. All four losses came by 6 points or more. It was playing without Rudy Gay (back) in a 114-122 loss at Milwaukee on Saturday, and he is questionable to return tonight. I like the Warriors to roll regardless of whether or not Gay plays. If he's out it would only be an added bonus.

Golden State has been dominant at home this season. It is 18-7 SU & 15-10 ATS in all home games this year. That's not good new for the Raptors, who are just 8-21 in all road games this year. The Warriors won the first meeting 114-102 with the Raptors on January 28th on the road. I like for them to put a similar beat down on Toronto at home this time around.

Golden State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Raptors are 3-14 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Golden State. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Golden State. Roll with the Warriors Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +10

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing arguably their best value of the season as a double-digit home underdog to the Miami Heat. They come in undervalued due to their current 5-game losing streak which has seen four of those losses come on the road. The other was a 99-100 home loss to Western Conference playoff contender, Golden State.

Miami comes in way overvalued due to its 14-game winning streak. They won No. 14 in a row Sunday at New York as they erased a double-digit halftime deficit. That was a huge win for the Heat as they had lost the previous two meetings with the Knicks this season. Now, playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, the Heat are in for a big letdown tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 51-21 (70.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.

The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Timberwolves are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Minnesota is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

20* Thunder/Clippers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2

The Los Angeles Clippers come into this game with the Oklahoma City Thunder more motivated for a victory than they have been all season. They are out to prove that they can beat the defending Western Conference champs after a tough recent history against them. They have lost the first two meetings this season and DO NOT want to drop a 3rd today.

I like Los Angeles' chances of getting its first win against OKC this season considering how well it has played inside the Staples Center. It is 23-6 SU & 18-11 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.1 points/game.

The Thunder are very beatable on the road as they are 16-12 away from home this season. In fact, they have now lost three straight road games to Utah, Houston and Denver heading into this one. They have lost four of their last seven games overall with all three of their wins coming at home over Minnesota, Chicago and New Orleans.

Los Angeles is 13-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponents this season. The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These last three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the home team today. Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/76ers UNDER 196.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Philadelphia 76ers. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. The Warriors are a tired team, and they have been showing signs of wearing down here of late.

This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 5 days for the Warriors. They lost 86-94 at Boston last night for 180 combined points. This is a jump shooting team, and the shots simply aren't going to fall considering how tired their legs will be tonight. I look for them to try and win this game because of their defense.

Golden State has an excellent chance of shutting down Philadelphia considering how poorly the 76ers have played offensively of late. The 76ers have scored 93 or fewer points in 12 straight games. However, they have only allowed 100-plus in two of those 12 contests. Philly is averaging a woeful 86.1 points/game in its last 12 games.

While those are all great reasons for a low-scoring game tonight, my biggest reason for backing the UNDER is the recent head-to-head meetings between these teams. Golden State and Philadelphia have combine for 188 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings over the past two seasons. They have combined for 185, 188 and 186 points, averaging just 186.3 points/game in the process. As you can see, that's roughly 10 points fewer than tonight's posted total of 196.5.

Philadelphia is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in 76ers last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221

The books have inflated this number between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets tonight. This will be a nationally televised game on ESPN, which will bring out top-notch effort defensively from both teams. Plus, it will already be the 3rd meeting of the season between these teams, and familiarity favors the defenses.

When you look at recent meetings between Oklahoma City and Denver it's easy to see that this number has been set too high tonight. That's especially the case when you don't count overtime, which is something you can never bank on when handicapping a game.

The Nuggets and Thunder have combined for 220 points or less in 18 straight meetings. That's only counting the first four quarters, and I'll take my chances that this contest doesn't go into OT tonight. This trend makes for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2009 pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -14.5

After losing two of their last three games in overtime, the San Antonio Spurs come into this game Friday with the Sacramento Kings highly motivated for a victory. That includes a 101-105 home loss to the Phoenix Suns last time out, and you can be sure that head coach Greg Popovich has made it clear to his players that it's was unacceptable.

Off a blowout road win at Orlando, the Kings are feeling good about themselves coming in. They'll quickly be put in their place by a Spurs team that will simply want this one more. I look for this spread to be in the bag by the end of the 3rd quarter tonight folks.

Sacramento is 6-26 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by a whopping 10.1 points/game away from home this year. That's not good news for the Kings considering San Antonio is 22-3 at home this season. The Spurs are outscoring their opponents by an eye-opening 12.8 points/game at home this year.

The Spurs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Spurs are 36-16-3 ATS in their last 55 home games. San Antonio is 21-9 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Take the Spurs Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Grizzlies simply have the Miami Heat's number in recent meetings. That's because this is a terrible match-up for Miami as it does not have the post presence to go up against a team like Memphis, which runs its offense through the underrated duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. I look for both of these guys to have monster games tonight for the Grizzlies.

Memphis has won its two most recent meetings with Miami in blowout fashion. It won 104-86 at home on November 11th in their first meeting this season, and 97-82 on the road on April 6th in their final meeting of 2012. In fact, the Grizzlies have now won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series.

The Heat come into this game way overvalued due to their current 12-game winning streak. They have shown signs of being overvalued in their past two games with a come-from-behind 109-105 home victory over Cleveland as a 12-point favorite, and a 141-129 (2 OT) home win over Sacramento as a 15-point favorite.

Memphis has shown that it really does not miss Rudy Gay one bit. It has won eight straight games heading into this contest and it will continue playing with a chip on its shoulder against the defending champs tonight. I look for this one to go right down to the wire, and for the Grizzlies to likely pull off the upset.

The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite this season. Memphis is 11-1 ATS vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making >=39% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. These two trends combine for a 19-1 (95%) system backing Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls -7

The Chicago Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory as they host the Philadelphia 76ers Thursday night. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Oklahoma City and Cleveland, and I look for them to bounce back in a big way tonight. Consider that the Bulls have only lost three games in a row once all season.

I really like Chicago's chances of getting a blowout win tonight considering it will be hosting struggling Philadelphia. The 76ers have lost six straight coming in, including an embarrassing 84-98 home loss to Orlando as an 8.5-point favorite last time out. This team just cannot seem to put the wheels back on the bus as they have completely fallen off.

Tom Thibodeau is one of the best head coaches in the business. He knows what buttons to push to get his players to respond following a poor performance or a string of them. Thibodeau is 44-24 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 29-12 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. He is also 22-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago.

Philadelphia is just 6-18 on the road this season. The Bulls are 8-1 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less this season. They are coming back to win by 10.8 points/game in this spot. The Bulls are 53-26-2 ATS in their last 81 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -4.5

The Utah Jazz are highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Atlanta Hawks. They have lost two straight coming in with a 94-107 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers, and a 107-110 (OT) home defeat at the hands of the Boston Celtics. They will not lose three in a row tonight, especially considering this game is at home.

Utah is a sensational 21-7 SU & 17-11 ATS in all home games this season. It will also be out for revenge on the Hawks considering it has lost three straight and six of the last seven meetings in this series. It lost the first meeting this season in Atlanta on January 11th by a final of 95-103.

The Hawks come in overvalued due to their 3-game winning streak coming in. In fact, they have won five of their last six overall while going 5-1 ATS in the process. A closer look at their schedule shows that they have been beating up on weaker teams. Their five wins have come against Dallas, Orlando, Sacramento, Milwaukee and Detroit. All five of those teams have losing records on the season.

The Jazz are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in its previous game. The favorite is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings in this series. Roll with the Jazz Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER 188.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks. I look for both teams to be held to fewer than 95 points in a low-scoring affair tonight. When you look at the recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between Dallas and Memphis. They have combined for 187 or fewer points in all five meetings with finals of 187, 174, 183, 180 and 181 points. They have combined to average 181.0 points/game in those five contests.

Memphis has become even more of a low-scoring, defensive team since trading away Rudy Gay and essentially getting back Tayshaun Prince in return. The UNDER is 3-0 in Grizzlies last three games overall with wins over Brooklyn (76-72), Orlando (88-82) and Toronto (88-82). As you can see, they have not combined with any of their last three opponents for more than 170 points.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Mavericks last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Grizzlies last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. These four trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors -3

The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won six of their last eight games overall to get within striking distance of Milwaukee for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Four of those six wins came against playoff contenders in the Pacers, Nuggets and Knicks (twice), so it's not like they've been beating up on cupcakes.

Cleveland is in one of the toughest spots the NBA has to offer tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. Off a big upset win at Chicago last night, this is a huge letdown spot for the Cavaliers. Plus, they are expected to be without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (23.3 PPG, 5.6 APG) as he is listed as doubtful with a knee injury.

The road team has won four straight and seven of the last eight meetings in this series overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Toronto. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls -6.5

The Chicago Bulls are the most resilient team in the league. Off an embarrassing 72-102 loss at Oklahoma City Sunday, I look for the Bulls to bounce back with a double-digit blowout victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home Tuesday night.

Cleveland comes in overvalued due to winning eight of its last 14 games overall. One of its losses came at Miami 105-109 last time out on Sunday, but it caught the Heat playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. And most of its eight wins have come against non-playoff teams.

Chicago simply owns Cleveland in this series. The Bulls have won 10 straight meetings in this series with each of their last nine wins coming by 9 points or more. This makes for a trends that is a perfect 9-0 since 2011 given tonight's spread of 6.5. Chicago's last four home meetings have resulted in wins by 26, 32, 13 and 9 points, respectively.

This play falls into a system that is 42-13 (76.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more.

The Bulls are 53-25-2 ATS in their last 80 games following a S.U. loss. Chicago is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. Tom Thibodeau is 63-37 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 44-23 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

Note - I realize this line has jumped from 6.5 to 8.5 in most places. I still recommend a bet on the Bulls at anything less than -10

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +15.5

The Sacramento Kings are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the Miami Heat Tuesday night. I know the Kings have lost five straight coming in, but they've played a brutal schedule that has included Memphis, Dallas, San Antonio, Atlanta and New Orleans with four of those coming on the road. Sacramento is undervalued because of it.

Meanwhile, the Heat come in way overvalued due to their season-high 11-game winning streak. They started showing signs of being overvalued with a 109-105 come-from-behind home victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

The biggest reason the Cavs were able to hang with the Heat was the fact that Miami came in very tired in that game. It was playing its 4th game in 5 days on Sunday, and now it will be playing its 5th game in 7 days against the Kings. That's one of the toughest situations for any team in the league, and I look for the Heat to come out sluggish once again because of it.

This play falls into a system that is 65-28 (69.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

Sacramento comes in well-rested as this will be just its 4th game in 13 days. The Kings are 32-16 ATS in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days since 1996. Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Kings Tuesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Magic/76ers UNDER 189.5

The Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league, and this number has certainly been set too high given how poorly both squads have played on that end of the floor all year.

Orlando is scoring just 93.8 points/game overall and 92.3 points/game on the road. Philadelphia is scoring 92.2 points/game overall and 93.4 points/game at home. Both teams allow less than 100 points/game, so each has been solid on that end of the court for the most part. Especially Philadelphia, which is giving up just 95.2 points/game at home this year.

These teams just met on February 4th right before the All-Star game. The 76ers beat the Magic 78-61 at home for 139 combined points. That is 50 points less than tonight's posted total of 189.5. While I do expect them to combine for more than 139 this time, I don't expect it to be anywhere near the posted total tonight.

Orlando is scoring just 88.0 points/game in its last five games overall. It is playing without Glen Davis and Jameer Nelson, which are two of its top scorers this season. Philadelphia has scored 93 or fewer points in 10 straight games, averaging just 86.7 points/game in the process.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Magic last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Golden State Warriors +8

The Indiana Pacers come into this game way overvalued tonight. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with four straight blowout victories over Charlotte, New York, and Detroit twice all by 18 points or more. They have created expectations for themselves that they simply cannot live up to tonight.

Golden State comes in undervalued after having lost six of its last nine games overall. It has been able to get back on track by winning its last three, including a 107-101 (OT) victory over San Antonio. The perception is that this team still isn't playing well, but that isn't the case right now.

This play falls into a system that is 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.

The Warriors beat the Pacers 103-92 at home in their first meeting of the season on December 1st. Indiana is 2-12 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 14-6 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents this season. Take the Warriors Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Jazz UNDER 191.5

I look for the Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz to take part in a defensive battle tonight when they meet for the second and final time this season. Boston comes in fatigued following an 86-92 loss at Portland last night. This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 3rd game in 4 days for the Celtics.

While Doc Rivers will command their attention to defense, I look for the Celtics to struggle on the offensive end due to their tired legs. This is a jump shooting team, which is not good for tired legs. Boston is scoring 95.9 points/game and allowing 95.9 points/game on the season.

Utah is a much better defensive team than it gets credit for. It is allowing just 95.7 points/game at home this season. A big reason this number has been inflated is the fact that the Jazz have played some recent high-scoring games against some of the top offenses in the league. They have played the Clippers, Warriors, Timberwolves and Thunder in their last four games overall.

A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that there is some value with the UNDER tonight. Boston won 98-93 at home on November 14th for 191 combined points in their first meeting this season. The Celtics also won at home 94-82 for 176 combined points in their final meeting of the '11-12 season.

Utah is 9-1 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs this season. It is combining with its opponents to average 182.8 points/game in this spot. That's roughly 9.0 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.5. Also, Boston is 25-11 to the UNDER in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Bulls/Thunder ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196

The Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder will take part in a defensive battle tonight on ESPN. When good teams like this get together the defense usually wins out. Both teams are more than capable of shutting one another down defensively, which has been the case in this series in recent meetings.

The Bulls are allowing just 91.1 points/game this season as one of the best defensive teams in the league. Oklahoma City doesn't get enough credit for its defense because it has Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook putting up a bunch of points each night offensively. The Thunder allow just 96.9 points/game at home this year.

Each of the last three meetings between the Bulls and Thunder have seen 189 or less combined points. Chicago won 99-90 at home in 2010 for 189 combined points, Oklahoma City won at home 92-78 at home in April of 2012 for 170 combined points, and the Thunder won on the road 97-91 in in November of 2012 for 188 combined points in their first meeting this season. These teams have averaged a combined 182.3 points/game in their last three meetings.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 8-0 in Thunder last 8 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in this series. These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2

The Portland Trail Blazers will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been all season. They enter this game on a season-high seven game losing streak and must stop the bleeding now if they want to make a run at the playoffs. I fully expect them to put an end to this skid tonight with a home victory over the Boston Celtics.

Portland just got Wesley Mathews, one of the most underrated players in the league, back from an ankle injury last time out. The Blazers nearly upset the Lakers as a 9.5-point road underdog on Friday, eventually falling 107-111 due to 40 points from Kobe Bryant. Matthews almost single-handedly kept the Blazers in the game late as he nailed several 3-pointers down the stretch. He finished with 15 points and 4-for-7 from 3-point range.

Portland is 17-9 at home this season and it still has one of the best home-court advantages in the league. Boston has been playing well of late, but it comes in overvalued because of it. The Celtics are just 9-17 SU & 9-15-2 ATS in all road games this season.

Boston is 25-43 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are 5-15 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Portland is 25-11 ATS in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -10

Off a season-high four straight losses, the New York Knicks head into this contest with the Philadelphia 76ers more motivated for a victory than they've been all year. I look for them to roll the 76ers at home tonight and emphatically put an end to this 4-game skid.

Philadelphia is the perfect team for New York to face to get back on track. The 76ers have also lost four straight, including a 90-114 home defeat at the hands of the Miami Heat last night. Fatigued from the back-to-back situation, and likely to suffer a hangover from that loss to the defending champs, I don't even expect the 76ers to show up tonight.

The Knicks are 19-8 at home this season, while the 76ers are just 6-17 on the road. New York has won two of three meetings with Philly this season with its wins coming by 16 and 22 points. I expect a similar blowout in this one tonight. The Knicks are 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series, including 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home meetings.

The 76ers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 0 days rest, including 2-10 ATS when playing on back-to-back days this season. The Knicks are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 home games. Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games. The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Knicks Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Pistons UNDER 188

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons. This is a home-and-home situation as these teams squared off last night in Indiana as the Pacers rolled to a 114-82 victory. Now, they'll play in Detroit just 24 hours later.

Familiarity breeds low-scoring games. I have no doubt that after combining for 196 points last night that these teams will buckle down defensively and take away their opposition's offensive strengths. That 196-point effort was an aberration when you look at previous meetings in this series.

Indiana beat Detroit 88-77 on the road for 165 combined points on December 15th in the first meeting of the season between these teams. The Pacers also won 98-79 at home for 177 combined points on January 30th. Throw in that 196-point effort, and these teams are averaging just 179.3 points/game combined. That's roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total.

Detroit is 13-4 to the UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The UNDER is 13-3 in Pacers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Pistons last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 20-7 in Pistons last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Blazers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued as a 9.5-point favorite Friday over the Portland Trail Blazers. Asking them to win by double-digits is simply asking too much. I'll gladly take the value and back Portland in a game I feel it has an excellent chance to win outright.

The Blazers will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season. That's because they have lost a season-high six straight games coming in while going 0-6 ATS in the process. This skid has them undervalued heading into this one.

Meanwhile, the Lakers are overvalued due to their 113-99 home victory over Boston on Wednesday in their first game back from the break. They were catching Boston in the second of a back-to-back situation as the Celtics were very tired after having played the Denver Nuggets the night before.

This play falls into a system that is 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, second half of the season.

Portland is 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Los Angeles is 0-8 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Portland. Bet the Blazers Friday.

20* T'Wolves/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -13

The Oklahoma City Thunder have not lost four straight regular-season games since the first season that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook joined forces. The Thunder will try to avoid such a skid Friday night when they host a Minnesota Timberwolves team they have beaten in 13 of the last 14 meetings.

Oklahoma City (39-15) is enduring its longest slide of the season after falling 122-119 at Houston on Wednesday. The Thunder allowed former teammate James Harden to score 46 points and yielded 47.8 percent shooting. "As a team, we gave up too many points, 66 points in the second half is not us, it's not what we pride ourselves on," coach Scott Brooks said. "We have to regroup and figure it out defensively."

I look for the Thunder to come out highly motivated tonight to beat a Minnesota team that they have owned. Oklahoma City beat Minnesota 106-84 in their most recent meeting on January 9th as a 12.5-point favorite. I look for a similar beat down tonight with the Thunder being able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.

The Timberwolves are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Timberwolves are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest. Minnesota is 1-10 ATS in road games versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots - 2nd half of the season since 1996. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing Oklahoma City. Bet the Thunder Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -1

The Dallas Mavericks are making a push toward the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They trail the Houston Rockets by 4.5 games for that spot and cannot afford to take nights off from here on out. They have been in this position for a while now, which is why they have been the best team to back over the past month or so.

That's evident by the fact that the Mavs are a ridiculous 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall. This team remains undervalued because of its poor record (24-29) on the season. However, this team is the definition of one that is better than its record would indicate as they have lost more close games than any other team in the league.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Mavs is the fact that they have lost each of their last two meetings with New Orleans, including a 99-96 (OT) loss at home in their lone meeting this season. New Orleans has not played well since returning from the break, losing 87-96 at home to Chicago, and 100-105 at Cleveland.

This play falls into a system that is 65-24 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (DALLAS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.

This play falls into another system that is 42-16 (72.4%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Dallas is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. These two trends combine for an 18-1 system backing Dallas. Take the Mavericks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on New York Knicks Money Line -111

The New York Knicks come in highly motivated for a victory Friday night. The Knicks are enduring their second three-game slide and their lead atop the Atlantic Division has been cut to one game over Brooklyn. They have not lost four straight all season, and they aren't about to tonight.

The third straight loss was an embarrassing 125-91 setback at Indiana on Wednesday. We didn't show up," head coach Mike Woodson said. "They whipped our asses from beginning to end." Off such a bad defeat, there's no question these players will respond tonight.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that Toronto handed New York the loss that started this three-game skid. The Raptors went into Madison Square Garden and came away with a 92-88 victory on February 13th. Just 10 days later, I look for New York to return the favor by going into Toronto and getting a victory tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 52-22 (70.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (NEW YORK) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%).

The Raptors had their five-game winning streak snapped with an 82-88 home loss to Memphis on Wednesday. With their momentum coming to a halt, I don't look for them to even show up tonight. The Raptors are 22-46-1 ATS in their last 69 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the Knicks Friday.

20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 200.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this match-up between two of the top three teams in the Western Conference in the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers. This is a high-profile game that will bring out the best in both teams defensively. That has certainly been the case when these teams have gotten together in recent meetings.

The Clippers and Spurs have combined for 201 or fewer points in six straight meetings dating back to their playoff series last year. The two meetings this season alone have been very low-scoring. Los Angeles beat San Antonio at home 106-84 on November 7th for 190 combined points. The Clippers also beat the Spurs on the road 92-87 on November 19th for 169 combined points. These teams have combined to average just 179.5 points/game in two meetings this season, and 189.2 points/game in their last six meetings.

Both Chris Paul and Tony Parker tend to struggle when they play one another, which is huge for the UNDER. Parker had a season-low four points on 2-of-7 shooting in a 106-84 loss at Staples Center on Nov. 7, and scored 11 in a 92-87 home defeat Nov. 19. Parker also shot just 36.1 percent while averaging 17.3 points in the four-game sweep of the Clippers in the second round of last season's playoffs. Paul scored 12.8 per game on 36.8 percent shooting in that series.

The UNDER is 11-2-2 in Spurs last 15 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 12-4 in Clippers last 16 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 41-20 in Clippers last 61 Thursday games. The UNDER is 19-4-1 in the last 24 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Suns/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -8

The Golden State Warriors will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to put an end to their 6-game losing streak coming in. I like their chances of putting an end to the skid in blowout fashion considering they'll be hosting the lowly Phoenix Suns tonight.

Five of Golden State's six losses during this streak have come on the road and against some very good competition. It lost to Houston twice, Oklahoma City, Memphis, Dallas and Utah. Now, the Warriors return home where they are 16-7 on the season.

Phoenix is coming off a rare road victory at Portland last night, which sets it up for a big letdown spot here against a Warriors' team that is simply going to want this one more. The Suns are just 6-23 in all road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 8.8 points/game.

Golden State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Phoenix. That includes a 113-93 home victory as a 10.5-point favorite on February 2nd in its lone home meeting with the Suns this season. I look for a similar blowout tonight. The Warriors are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with Phoenix overall.

This play falls into a system that is 54-26 (67.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Hawks UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle as this will be the first game for both teams since the All-Star break. Each has had about a week off and both will have extra time to prepare for one another, which favors the defense.

One look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have missed their mark tonight. Not counting overtime, each of the last 19 meetings between the Hawks and Heat have seen 197 or less combined points. This makes for a perfect 19-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2009 pertaining to tonight's total set. Enough said. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Bucks UNDER 195

This is a classic home-and-home situation as the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks just played last night. Brooklyn won at home 113-111 (OT) in an absolute thriller. Now, they'll head to Milwaukee for the rematch just 24 hours later. These situations favor the defenses, and as a result I look for a low-scoring affair tonight. This will also be the 4th meeting of the season between these teams, and familiarity also favors lower scoring games.

Brooklyn is 15-9 to the UNDER in all road games this season. It is scoring just 92.5 points/game and allowing 94.5 points/game on the road this year, combining with its opponents for an average of 187.0 points/game. That number right there shows that there is some value with this UNDER tonight.

The Nets are 9-1 to the UNDER in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Brooklyn is 10-1 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 9-1 to the UNDER in road games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 9-1 to the UNDER after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games following a S.U. loss. These last six trends combine for a dynamite 46-4 (92%) system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Indiana Pacers should be a much heavier home favorite over the New York Knicks tonight. The home team has won both meetings this season with New York proving victorious 88-76 on November 18th, and Indiana winning 81-76 on January 10th. I look for this trend to continue tonight considering how dominant Indiana has been at home this season.

The Pacers are easily one of the best home teams in the league. They are an outstanding 21-5 at home this season and 16-10 ATS in the process. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 8.4 points/game at home this year while limiting them to 88.2 points/game and 40.7 percent shooting.

The Knicks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with losses to Washington, LAC and Toronto. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Pacers Wednesday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -5.5

Few teams needed the All-Star break as much as the Portland Trail Blazers. They lost each of their final five games going into the break, all of which came on the road. A nice long break, and a return home, is just what the doctor ordered to get this team back on track as they host the Phoenix Suns Tuesday night.

Portland is an outstanding 17-8 at home this season. It will be taking on a Phoenix team that has really struggled on the road. The Suns are just 5-23 away from home this season, getting outscored by a whopping 9.3 points/game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between these teams. The home team has won six straight and eight of the last nine meetings. The Blazers have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Suns.

This play falls into a system that is 54-24 (69.2%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.

Portland is 13-3 ATS after scoring 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Blazers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest. Phoenix is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a ATS win. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Golden State Warriors +3.5

The All-Star break came at a perfect time for the Golden State Warriors. This team had one of the best records in the Western Conference before losing its final five games before the break to 'drop' to 30-22 on the season. As a result, this team is undervalued as the second half of the season kicks off Tuesday.

Golden State should not be catching points against a Utah team that comes in overvalued after beating Oklahoma City and Minnesota in its final two games before the break. The Warriors will simply want this one more to erase the sour taste from five straight defeats heading in. Also, they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Utah.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

Golden State is 24-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Warriors are 18-2 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. And finally, Golden State is 10-1 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Take the Warriors Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls (30-22) had a very solid first half of the season to put themselves in great position in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. However, after a rough finish heading into the All-Star break, this team is going to be highly motivated to get back on the court and make amends starting with tonight's game against the New Orleans Hornets.

Chicago lost two straight and four of its last five heading into the break. All four of those losses came against playoff contenders in Indiana, Denver, San Antonio and Boston with three of them coming on the road. That finish certainly leaves a bad taste in these players' mouths, and they'll come out more hungry for a win tonight than in any other game all season.

New Orleans come in overvalued after winning four of its final five games heading into the break. Three of those wins came against current non-playoff teams in Phoenix, Detroit and Portland, and the loss came against Toronto. So, while Chicago played a very tough schedule heading into the break, the Hornets' slate could not have been much easier.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Bulls is the fact that they lost to the Hornets 82-89 at home in their first meeting of the season way back on November 3rd. That was clearly a rare loss for Chicago in this series considering it had won its previous eight meetings with New Orleans. It will certainly want revenge from that defeat, and I fully expect it to get it in blowout fashion tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHICAGO) - off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Tom Thibodeau is 21-6 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Chicago is 51-25-2 ATS in its last 78 games following a S.U. loss. The Hornets are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

20* Heat/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4

The Oklahoma City Thunder certainly want revenge on the Heat. They have lost five straight meetings in this series since taking a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals last June. Four of those five losses came on the road. They clearly won

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +5.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing some of their best value of the season as a road underdog to the lowly New Orleans Hornets tonight. After falling to 25-27 on the season with four straight road losses coming in, the Blazers will certainly be motivated for a victory tonight.

Portland cannot afford to lose any more ground on the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. This is its chance to go into the All-Star break on a high note, and I look for it to be giving 110% effort to try and get this victory tonight.

New Orleans (18-34) has no business being favored here. It is getting too much respect for its win at Detroit last time out. It is just 8-15 SU & 10-13 ATS in all home games this season.

Portland simply owns New Orleans in this head-to-head series. It has won five straight meetings with the Hornets dating back to last season. The Blazers have averaged 102.5 points in their last five games and should be able to find open looks against New Orleans, which has allowed 101.9 points per game over its last 13.

This play falls into a system that is 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, off a road win by 10 points or more.

New Orleans is 2-16 ATS in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with Portland Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5

The Denver Nuggets are in as tough of a spot tonight as you will find in the NBA. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days after losing in Toronto last night.

The Nuggets are clearly fatigued, and making matters worse for them is their injury problems. Both Andre Iguodala and Danilo Gallinari sat out last night, and each is questionable to return tonight. Also, Javale McGee is doubtful, while Wilson Chandler is questionable. These are four key contributors for Denver.

Deron Williams is expected to miss tonight's game for Brooklyn, but it proved it could win without him on Monday as it went into Indiana and came away with an 89-84 victory. Williams has been hobbled all season and he really hasn't been himself anyway.

The Nuggets are just 11-17 on the road this season. The Nets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The home team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings in this series. Take the Nets Wednesday.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -10

The Indiana Pacers will have no problem getting motivated to face the lowly Charlotte Bobcats tonight. This will be the final game for Indiana before the All-Star break, and it certainly wants to end on a positive note after what has transpired in the last few games.

Indiana has lost its last two games in heartbreaking fashion to both Toronto and Brooklyn. Both losses came in overtime after the Pacers seemingly had the game won in the final seconds of regulation. Motivated to bounce back from those two defeats, I have no doubt the Pacers will roll tonight.

Indiana is 20-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.7 points/game. Charlotte is just 5-20 on the road this season, getting outscored by a whopping 11.7 points/game.

The Pacers beat the Bobcats in their previous meeting 103-76 on the road on January 15th. In fact, this has been a very one-sided series over the past few years. Indiana has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series with five of its last six victories coming by 14 points or more.

The Bobcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Charlotte is 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win. The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games. The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -5

The Golden State Warriors will be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been at any other point this season. As a result, I look for them to roll to a blowout home victory over the Houston Rockets Tuesday.

Golden State has lost four straight coming in, all of which have come on the road against Western Conference playoff contenders Houston, Oklahoma City, Memphis and Dallas. Now, it returns home where it is 16-6 on the season.

The Warriors want some serious payback against the Rockets in this one. They were beaten handily in Houston 109-140 on February 5th just a week ago today. The Rockets made an NBA record-tying 23 three-pointers in the win. That's clearly not going to happen again.

Houston is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season. It is losing in this spot 93.1 to 105.4, or by an average of 12.3 points/game. Golden State is 42-24 ATS in home games revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more since 1996.

The home team has won five straight and eight of the last nine meetings in this series. The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Warriors Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Heat NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Portland +11.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing solid value as a double-digit road underdog to the Miami Heat Tuesday. Portland comes in highly motivated for a win after dropping three straight road games at Dallas, Houston and Orlando heading in.

The Blazers were clearly overlooking the Magic and looking ahead to this game with the defending champion Heat, which is only human nature. I look for them to come out with one of their best efforts of the season to try and get a win to get back to .500 on the season.

Miami is coming off a huge win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. It also has a game against defending Western Conference champion Oklahoma City on deck Thursday on TNT. The Heat will clearly be overlooking the Blazers and looking ahead to that showdown with the Thunder.

This play falls into a system that is 41-18 (69.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days.

Miami is 0-9 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this spot 93.2 to 100.3, or by an average of 7.1 points/game. It is clearly overvalued here tonight. Take the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -4.5

The Dallas Mavericks are undervalued right now due to their 22-28 record. This is arguably the best team in the league that has a losing record. Dirk Nowitzki is back and healthy, and there's no question these Mavs will make a run at the playoffs before it's all said and done.

In fact, many Dallas players have made a pact to not shave their beards until they get back to .500 on the season. They have won two straight over Western Conference playoff contenders Portland (105-99) and Golden State (116-91), and now I look for them to make easy work of Atlanta tonight.

The biggest way to tell that the Mavs are undervalued right now is by looking at their recent ATS run. They are an incredible 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall while cashing 85% of the time. Somehow, some way the betting public has not caught on to the fact that this team is undervalued.

Atlanta is not playing well right now. It has lost three of its last four all by double-digits. The Hawks were beaten by Chicago (76-93) and New Orleans (100-111) at home while also falling at Indiana (103-114). This is a team that has been in a rut ever since losing Louis Williams (14.1 PPG) for the season.

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS when playing with 2 days rest this season. Atlanta is 1-11 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. Both teams come in well-rested, but it clearly hasn't been doing the Hawks any good this year. The Mavericks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -5

The Los Angeles Clippers are undervalued right now due to a recent stretch that has been their worst basketball of the season. They have lost eight of their last 12 games overall while going 4-8 ATS in the process.

However, a big reason for their struggles was a long list of injuries to their star players. Well, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Chauncey Billups and Jamal Crawford have all recently returned to the line-up. It paid off big with a dominant 102-88 win at New York on Sunday.

Philadelphia is no match for Los Angeles, especially with the injuries it is dealing with right now. Andrew Bynum and Jason Richardson remain out, but the biggest loss is Thaddeus Young, who is out indefinitely with a hamstring injury.

Young is one of the most underrated players in the league as he is 2nd on the 76ers in scoring (14.9 PPG), 1st in rebounding (7.4 RPG) and 1st in steals (1.6 SPG). He is also the only Philadelphia player shooting better than 48% (52.2) from the field.

The 76ers are clearly missing Young as they have been atrocious offensively without him. They have scored 78.0 points per game while shooting 7 for 44 from 3-point range in their last three contests.

Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 vs. Western Conference opponents. The 76ers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Clippers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Los Angeles is 16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Take the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Bobcats UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Charlotte Bobcats. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one folks.

Boston won't have much left in the tank after playing a triple-overtime thriller Sunday against Denver. I believe that will affect its offense a lot more than its defense. The Celtics simply won't have their legs under them, which makes it very tough to knock down jump shots.

A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Eight of the last nine meetings between the Bobcats and Celtics have seen 193 or less combined points. They have averaged a combined 179.9 points/game in those nine contests, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total.

Boston is 24-10 to the UNDER in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are 16-4 to the UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bobcats last 7 overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9

The Phoenix Suns are showing solid value as a big home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The betting public is not going to want to back the Suns after they got throttled 96-127 at Oklahoma City on Friday.

However, I'll gladly take advantage and back Phoenix at a great price in the rematch of this home-and-home situation. The Suns want revenge after getting embarrassed, while the Thunder will have a hard time getting motivated to play a team they just beat by 31 two nights ago.

Also, Oklahoma City shot out of their mind in Friday's game against the Suns. It shot 57.5% from the field and 14-of-21 (66.7%) from 3-point range. That's not going to happen again, and Phoenix will easily stay within this number, possibly pulling off the upset.

This play falls into a system that is 48-21 (69.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, on Sunday games.

The Suns are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Phoenix Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Hornets +4.5

The New Orleans Hornets are showing excellent value as an underdog to the Toronto Raptors Sunday night. The Hornets come in playing great basketball having won each of their last two. They won 93-84 at home over Phoenix before going on the road and knocking off Atlanta 111-100 on Friday.

Toronto has lost 10 of its last 14 games overall and it has no business being favored here. That's especially the case considering the Raptors are in a huge letdown spot after their 100-98 (OT) road win at Indiana on Friday. They will have a hard time getting up for New Orleans after such a big victory.

The Hornets come in with revenge in mind having lost three straight to the Raptors, including a 97-104 (OT) home loss in their first meeting of the season on December 28th. They did not have leading scorer Eric Gordon (17.0 PPG) in that contest, but he is back and healthy and making a huge difference for this team.

New Orleans is 40-21 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 10-1 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, New Orleans is 11-1 ATS in road games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Hornets Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bobcats/76ers UNDER 189

I look for the Charlotte Bobcats and Philadelphia 76ers to take part in a defensive battle tonight. The way Philadelphia is going right now, this game won't come close to touching the 189-point total.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Philadelphia's last 4 games overall. It has combined with its last four opponents to score 176, 169, 149 and 157 combined points, respectively. It is combining with its opponents to average 162.8 points/game during this span.

Charlotte has been far from an offensive juggernaut itself, scoring 95 or fewer points in six straight games and 13 of its last 15 overall. It is averaging a mere 92.4 points/game on the road this season.

Considering Philly is only allowing 94.8 points/game at home this season, points are going to be very hard to come by for the Bobcats. Don't expect the 76ers to put up a big number either considering they are averaging just 92.5 points/game on the season.

Philadelphia is 9-1 to the UNDER 9-1 UNDER in home games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 178.2 points/game in this situation. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Bulls/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +4

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most resilient teams in the league thanks in large part to the motivation their players receive from the most underrated head coach in the game in Tom Thibodeau. Off back-to-back blowout loss at Indiana and Denver, I look for them to respond in a big way tonight.

The Bulls have been one of the best road teams in the league this season. They are 14-9 away from home this year with road wins over the likes of Mami, New York, Boston and Atlanta in 2013 alone.

Chicago has had Utah

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Blazers/Rockets OVER 211

The Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets will take part in a shootout tonight. Houston plays at a faster pace than any other team in the league, and it will control the tempo tonight playing at home.

Houston is scoring 110.0 points/game and allowing 103.5 points/game at home this season, combining with their opponents for 213.5 points/game. As you can see, that number is above tonight's posted total, giving us value to pull the trigger on the OVER.

The Rockets are hitting on all cylinders right now offensively. They have scored 108 or more points in six straight games, averaging a whopping 118.5 points/game in those six contests.

These teams last met on November 16th in an absolute shootout. Portland beat Houston 119-117 at home in overtime in a game that saw 236 combined points. It was tied 111-111 at the end of regulation for 222 combined points, so overtime was not needed to get the OVER.

The OVER is 4-1 in Blazers last 5 games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in Blazers last 5 vs. Western Conference opponents. The OVER is 8-3 in Rockets last 11 home games. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Clippers/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 195

The Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat are set to square off on National TV Friday night in what could easily be an NBA Finals preview. I look for defense to reign supreme tonight as both teams get after it on that end of the floor.

The Clippers are really struggling offensively of late because they have no chemistry right now due to injuries to Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford. They have scored less than 100 points in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Los Angeles is averaging just 88.3 points/game in its last four contests.

Miami is coming off a very high scoring game against the Houston Rockets last time out, which is a big reason I believe the books have made the mistake of setting this total too high tonight. Miami's previous five games had all seen 193 or less combined points at the end of regulation.

This play falls into a system that is 92-48 (65.7%) to the UNDER over the past 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), on Friday nights. A great match-up like this almost always seems to bring out the best defensively in both teams.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a ATS win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These three trends combined for a 12-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Pacers UNDER 188.5

The Toronto Raptors and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. The books have set the bar too high in this contest due to recent high-scoring games by both teams, which has forced them to inflate the number.

Indiana was out of character with its back-to-back home wins over Chicago (111-101) and Atlanta (114-103). It got back to reality last time out with an 88-69 road win at Philadelphia. Remember, this is a Pacers team that is scoring just 92.7 points/game and allowing 90.0 points/game on the season.

Toronto lost at home to Boston 95-99 last time out. Its previous three games had all seen 185 or less combined points with a 92-93 loss at Atlanta, a 98-73 home win over the Clippers, and an 85-100 home loss to Miami.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER tonight is due to the recent history between these teams. The Raptors and Pacers have combined for 185 or less points in four of their last five meetings. That includes both meetings this season with a 74-72 Toronto road victory on November 13th for 146 combined points, and a 90-88 Indiana road win on October 31st for 178 combined points.

Indiana is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 178.8 points/game in this situation. The UNDER is 6-0 in Pacers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Wizards OVER 185.5

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards. I look for a shootout tonight in Washington as both teams go for around 100 points apiece.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have missed their mark. Washington and Brooklyn have combined for 197 or more points in each of their last three meetings.

Not counting overtime, the Nets and Wizards have combined to average 197.0 points/game in their last three meetings. That's roughly 12 points more than tonight's posted total of 185.5.

The OVER is 8-3 in Wizards last 11 home games. The OVER is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 Friday games. The OVER is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic division foes. Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Lakers/Celtics TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 196

The Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics will take part in a defensive battle. This is one of the most storied rivalries in sports, and the defensive intensity is always at its highest level when these teams get together. One look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have set the bar too high tonight.

Eight of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 191 or less combined points. In fact, the Lakers and Celtics have combined to average 178.3 points/game in those nine games. That's roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total.

Pau Gasol being out certainly hurts the Lakers' offense more than it hurts their defense. Also, defensive stopper Metta World Peace returns from suspension tonight to help shut down Paul Pierce. I will be on this UNDER no matter whether or not Dwight Howard (shoulder, questionable) plays.

The UNDER is 11-4 in Lakers last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 49-20-2 in Lakers last 71 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The UNDER is 34-15-2 in Lakers last 51 Thursday games. The UNDER is 34-15-3 in Celtics last 52 Thursday games.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Celtics last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Boston. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

Note - I put this total out basically as soon as the line came out today at 196. Within a matter of minutes, it moves down to 194 in most places. I still recommend a bet on the Under at 193 or better as a 20*. If it somehow manages to drop to less than 193, then play it as a 15*.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Timberwolves OVER 196

This number has been set too low tonight in what I believe is going to be a shootout between the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves. Tim Duncan is expected to miss this game, taking away San Antonio's best defender.

The Timberwolves have been forced to play small ball with all of their injuries. This makes them a more dynamic offensive team that likes to push the tempo, but it also makes them extremely vulnerable defensively.

The OVER is 5-1 in Minnesota's last 6 games overall with combined scores of 215, 203, 186, 211, 201 and 198 points. As you can see, five of those six games exceeded tonight's posted total.

San Antonio is scoring 103.2 points/game and allowing 99.5 points/game on the road this season. It is combining with its opponents to average 202.7 points/game away from home this year.

The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Minnesota between these teams. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks -4.5

The Dallas Mavericks come into this game Wednesday with the Portland Trail Blazers highly motivated for a win. They trail the Blazers in the Western Conference standings as both are trying to make a push for the playoffs. The Mavs cannot afford to lose this one.

Dallas has two more huge reasons to be laying it all on the line tonight. First, the Mavericks blew a 21-point third quarter lead at Portland last Tuesday to lose 104-106 after LaMarcus Aldridge hit the game-tying 3-pointer and the game-winning jumper for the Blazers in the closing seconds.

Second, Dallas is coming off a poor showing at Oklahoma City on Monday, and it will be hungry to bounce back after such a bad defeat. This team is clearly undervalued right now, and that's proven by the fact that it is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games overall. I believe the Mavs should be a much heavier home favorite tonight in this one.

Portland is just 8-15 on the road this season, getting outscored by 6.4 points/game. The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Hornets -6

The Phoenix Suns are in a very tough spot tonight. Phoenix is coming off a huge 96-90 win over Memphis last night, setting it up for a big letdown spot tonight. The Suns will also be tired as this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.

Meanwhile, New Orleans comes in on three days' rest having last played on Saturday in a blowout loss at Minnesota. In fact, the Hornets have lost four straight games as they come off a brutal five-game road trip with visits to Memphis, LAL, Utah, Denver and Minnesota.

So, the Hornets come in highly motivated to put an end to this losing streak. They are also motivated to avenge a 108-111 (OT) road loss at Phoenix in their first meeting this season. Neither Eric Gordon (16.9 PPG) nor Anthony Davis (13.1 PPG) played in that contest, but each will be suited up for the rematch tonight.

Phoenix is just 5-20 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by an average of 8.5 points/game away from home this year. The Suns are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest. The Hornets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest. New Orleans is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Heat OVER 208

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between Miami and Houston. I look for both teams to eclipse the 100-point barrier in an absolute shootout tonight.

The Rockets are really hitting on all cylinders offensively. They are averaging 120.6 points/game in their last five contests while scoring at least 109 points in each.

Miami will certainly get its points against a Houston defense that yields 102.7 points/game on the season. The Heat are scoring 106.5 points/game at home this year.

I look for this game to take a similar path to the first meeting of the season between these teams. Miami won at Houston 113-110 on November 12th for 223 combined points.

Houston is 10-1 to the OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average combined score of 221.0 points/game in this spot. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Wizards UNDER 192.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Washington Wizards tonight. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between two solid defensive squads. The Knicks allow 95.5 points/game this season, while the Wizards only yield 95.7 points/game.

The UNDER is 8-2 in Washington's last 10 games overall. Only once during this stretch has it scored 100 points or more. Also, only once during this span has it allowed at least 100 points. We've seen combined scores of 181, 193, 180, 215, 159, 190, 176, 161, 182 and 188 points in the Wizards' last 10 games, respectively.

This play falls into a system that is 74-34 (68.5%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (NEW YORK) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 games following a ATS win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 8-0 in Wizards last 8 Wednesday games. These five trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets are showing excellent value as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Golden State Warriors tonight. I look for them to roll as they continue playing solid basketball over the past few weeks.

The Rockets have won four of their last five games overall while going 4-1 ATS in the process. They come in well-rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor.

I believe the Warriors come into this contest overvalued due to their 4-game winning streak. All four of those victories came against teams with losing records in the Raptors, Cavs, Mavericks and Suns. A step up in competition tonight will put an and to their winning streak.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Warriors and Rockets. The home team has won four straight and seven of the past eight meetings. Houston is 8-0 in its last eight home meetings with Golden State dating back to 2008 with all eight wins coming by 3 points or more.

Houston is 7-0 ATS in home games off a home win this season. It is outscoring opponents 113.0 to 99.9 in this spot, or by an average of 13.1 points/game. Roll with the Rockets Tuesday.

20* Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +9

The Dallas Mavericks are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as a 9-point road underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. I know both Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant are questionable tonight, but no matter whether or not either plays I am all over the Mavs in this one.

My biggest reason for backing the Mavs in this one is the revenge factor. Dallas has lost two heartbreakers to Oklahoma City this season, both of which came in overtime. They lost 105-111 (OT) at Oklahoma City on December 27th as a 10.5-point dog, and 114-117 (OT) vs. the Thunder on January 18th as a 5.5-point dog.

While the Mavs will be highly motivated for payback, I look for the Thunder to relax having already beaten them twice. They know they cannot lose the season series no matter what happens in this game.

Also, seven of the last eight meetings in this series have been decided by 9 points or less. OKC has won all eight outright, so you can only imagine how badly the Mavs want revenge in this one. They will be giving everything they have to put an end to this streak.

The underdog is 33-16-2 ATS in the last 51 meetings. The road team is 35-15-2 ATS in the last 52 meetings. The Mavericks are 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings in Oklahoma City.

The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference foes. These three trends combine for a 20-1 (95%) System backing Dallas. Take the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Blazers/Timberwolves OVER 192

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this Western Conference clash between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Minnesota Timberwolves. I look for these teams to combine for 200-plus points in this one.

One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that there is value with the OVER in this contest tonight. The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings as the Blazers and Timberwolves have combined for 198 or more points in all five contests. They are combining to average 210.8 points/game during this span, which is nearly 19 points more than tonight's posted total.

Both teams have been playing in high-scoring games of late. Four of Minnesota's last five contests have seen 201 or more points. Three of Portland's last five games have seen 201 or more points.

The OVER is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The OVER is 5-0 in Timberwolves last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Celtics UNDER 184

The Los Angeles Clippers and Boston Celtics will take part in a defensive battle Sunday afternoon. Both teams have been prone to low-scoring games of late, and I look for that to continue today.

The biggest reason both teams are struggling to score points is the loss of their starting point guards. Rajon Rondo is out for the season with a torn ACL, while Chris Paul remains out with an knee injury.

The UNDER is 3-0 in Clippers last three games with combined scores of 179, 186 and 171 points. The UNDER is 2-0 in Celtics last two games with combined scores of 180 and 181 points. In fact, Rondo has missed the last three games, and the first game he missed resulted in a 100-98 Boston victory in OT against Miami. That game was tied 87-87 at the end of regulation for 174 combined points.

This has been a low-scoring series in recent meetings over the past two seasons as well. Los Angeles won at home 106-77 in their lone meeting this year for 183 combined points, while Boston won at the Clippers last season 94-85 for 179 combined points. Dating back further, seven of the last nine meetings have seen 183 or less combined points.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 vs. Western Conference foes. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic opponents. These five trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER today. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Jazz/Blazers NBA Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 195

The Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz just played in an absolute defensive battle last night. The Jazz came out on top at home by a final of 86-77 for 163 combined points. This is a home-and-home situation with Saturday's contest being played at Portland this time around.

I fully expect another low-scoring, defensive battle in the rematch tonight. The books have made a huge mistake by setting this number so high. These teams are obviously very familiar with one other after playing last night, and familiarity makes points hard to come by for both teams.

This has been a very low scoring series between these teams over the past couple of years. In fact, six of the last eight meetings have seen 190 or less combined points. They Jazz and Blazers have combined to average 187.3 points/game in those eight contests.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. NBA Northwest opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last 8 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Hornets/Nuggets OVER 203

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the New Orleans Hornets and Denver Nuggets. I look for a shootout tonight with both teams topping the 100-point mark in this one.

Since the return of leading scorer Eric Gordon, the Hornets have been a much more dynamic offensive team. They have scored 102 or more points in six of their last 11 games overall. Five of their last seven games have seen 203 or more combined points.

Denver is one of the highest-scoring teams year in and year out under George Karl. It is putting up 103.8 points/game overall, including a whopping 208.0 points/game at home this year. It is combining with its opponents to average 207.2 points/game in home games.

The OVER is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 vs. NBA Northwest opponents. The OVER is 7-0 in Nuggets last 7 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. These five trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in shambles right now. They just traded away arguably their best player in Rudy Gay, and they are going to have a hard time finding points from their perimeter players without him. I know many of their players are shocked at what has taken place.

Memphis really wasn't in it mentally last night as it lost 89-106 at Oklahoma City. I look for that to be the case again tonight whether or not Austin Daye, Tayshaun Prince and Ed Davis make their season debut for their new team. Plus, this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 6 days for Memphis.

Making matters worse for the Grizzlies is the fact that they run into a buzz saw in the Wizards who have been one of the best covering teams in the league over the past month. Washington is 7-5 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall.

The return of John Wall clearly has this team playing its best basketball of the season. The Wizards have beaten the likes of the Thunder, Hawks, Nuggets, Blazers and Bulls during this stretch, which are five playoff contenders.

The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games overall. The Wizards are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -6

The Philadelphia 76ers are undervalued as only a 6-point home favorite over the lowly Sacramento Kings. Philadelphia won't be taking any games off the rest of the way as they fight to earn a playoff spot in the East. The same cannot be said for the 17-30 Kings.

Philly has really played well in its last three games. It beat New York 97-80 while also topping a red hot Washington team 92-84. Its lone loss during this stretch came in the last seconds in a 100-103 setback to Western Conference power Memphis.

Fading the Kings away from home has been a very prosperous move all season. They are just 5-18 SU & 10-13 ATS in road games this season. That includes a blowout road loss at Boston on Wednesday by a final of 81-99.

This has proven to be an excellent matchup for Philadelphia over the past several year, and I fully expect that to be the case again tonight. The 76ers are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Kings. In fact, all seven of those wins have come by 10 points or more!

Keith Smart is 4-15 ATS versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of Sacramento. Doug Collins is 40-20 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of Philadelphia. Smart is 16-33 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more in all games he has coached.

The Kings are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Sacramento is 8-26-2 ATS in its last 36 games following a ATS loss. The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Sacramento is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* Heat/Pacers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Indiana +2

While the Pacers have lost three of their last four, all three of those losses came on the road against Western Conference playoff contenders in Denver, Utah and Portland. They lost in overtime to the Jazz, and by a single point to the Nuggets. They certainly haven

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 206

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle as neither team tops 100 points in this one.

A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that there is value with the UNDER tonight. Five of the last six meetings between these teams have seen 206 or less combined points.

Even that 206-point effort, which was in their lone meeting this season on November 19th, only saw 206 points because of overtime. That game was tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points. So, not counting OT, five of the last six meetings in this series have seen 198 or fewer combined points.

Golden State has a ton of injury concerns that could hurt them offensively. Stephen Curry (21.0 PPG), Harrison Barnes (8.9 PPG) and Carl Landry (12.0 PPG) are all questionable to return tonight after missing their 108-95 win at Cleveland on Tuesday. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Lakers/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Money Line -137

The Los Angeles Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won three in a row over the Jazz, Thunder and Hornets due to playing team basketball for the first time all season. Kobe Bryant has double-digit assists in each of his last three games, and Dwight Howard is dominating like he's supposed to.

I look for the Lakers to carry their momentum into Phoenix tonight. At 20-25 on the season, Los Angeles cannot afford a letdown, so it will not be overlooking the lowly Suns tonight. Phoenix owns the worst record in the West at 15-30 this season.

The Suns are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Phoenix is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 vs. Western Conference foes. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Roll with the Lakers on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 198.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER as I don't see either team getting to 100 points in this one.

I believe the biggest reason this total has been inflated is because both teams have played in some high scoring games of late. But the biggest reason for that has been overtime games. Toronto has played three overtime games in its last seven, while Atlanta played a double-overtime game against Boston two games ago.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The Hawks and Raptors have combined for 196 or less points in each of their last five meetings. They are averaging a combined 185 points/game during this stretch. That's roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Raptors last 29 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Celtics UNDER 194

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and Boston Celtics. I don't expect either team to reach 100 points tonight in this one, thus I'll back the UNDER with confidence.

Oddsmakers are overreacting from some recent high scoring games by Boston. However, three of Boston's last six games have gone to overtime, which is the biggest reason for this inflated number tonight. Also, you have to remember that Rajon Rondo is out for the season, so Boston is going to be lost offensively for a while. It is going to have to rely on its defense to win games.

Not counting overtime, the Celtics and their opponents have combined for 196 or less points in 10 straight games while averaging a mere 181.4 points/game during this stretch. In fact, nine of their last 10 games have seen 194 or less combined points at the end of regulation.

The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Boston. The UNDER is 7-2 in Boston's last 9 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 vs. Western Conference foes. These last three trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -8

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a win tonight. They are coming off three straight losses, all of which came on the road to Western Conference playoff contenders in the Nuggets, Jazz and Blazers.

Now, the Pacers return home to take on an Eastern Conference bottom feeder in the Detroit Pistons, and I fully expect them to make easy work of them while getting back in the win column. Indiana is 16-3 at home this season, while Detroit is just 5-16 on the road.

The Pacers come in the more rested team as well. This will be just the 3rd game in 7 days for the Pacers, while the Pistons will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. They started to show signs of wearing down last night with a 90-117 home loss to Milwaukee.

Indiana has won four of its last five meetings with Detroit with three of those wins coming by double-digits. The Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Indiana is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Detroit, including 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home meetings. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to their recent run against the spread. They had covered 10 in a row before a 94-96 home loss to Sacramento on Monday. Now, they're only catching 3.5 points at Philadelphia, and I'll gladly pull the trigger on the 76ers.

Philly has played a brutal schedule of late, which is the reason it is only 1-3 in its last four games. It lost to the Spurs and Grizzlies by a combined 8 points, while also falling at Milwaukee. It did beat the New York Knicks 97-80 at home on Saturday, and a I look for another blowout home win here.

The Wizards are a woeful 3-18 on the road this season. The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings in this series. The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Washington, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings. Take the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +3.5

The Dallas Mavericks should not be an underdog to the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. This is a must-win game for the Mavs as they trail the Blazers by three games in the Western Conference standings as both teams chase the 8th and final playoff spot.

Dallas comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It is 6-3 SU & an incredible 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games overall. Its only three losses during this stretch came to Western Conference powers in the Clippers, Spurs and Thunder, all by 6 points or less.

Portland comes in playing its worst basketball of the season. The Blazers are just 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall. They are showing signs of wearing down right now, and for good reason considering they have the worst bench in the league.

Portland's 16.5 points per game off the bench are by far the fewest in the NBA. The Blazers come in tired as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile, the Mavs are well-rested considering this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days.

This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more. Dallas beat Portland 114-91 at home in their lone meeting this season on November 5th, which was without Nowitzki.

The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Dallas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 Tuesday games. The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing Dallas. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5

This is one of the best spots you will ever find to back the Cleveland Cavaliers. Not only are they playing their best basketball of the season right now, they also come in by far the more rested team in this showdown with the Golden State Warriors tonight.

Cleveland is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. It has home wins over the Celtics and Bucks, as well as road wins over the Blazers and Raptors during this stretch. This team got a lot stronger with their trade with Memphis, bringing in Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington, who combined for 29 points in a 99-98 win at Toronto on Saturday.

While the Cavaliers come in on two days' rest since beating the Raptors on Saturday, the Warriors will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. Most teams are tired as it is as we near the All-Star break, and this situation is nearly unbearable for most teams. That's especially the case for Golden State considering it is expected to be without Stephon Curry (ankle, doubtful) tonight.

The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on 2 days rest. Golden State is 54-81 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more since 1996. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Bulls UNDER 186

The Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Bobcats will take part in a defensive battle tonight. While this is one of the lowest totals on the board Monday, I believe the books have made a big mistake by not setting it low enough.

Chicago comes in motivated for a win following its 73-86 loss at Washington on Saturday. It will be exerting its energy on defense to get the win, which is the trademark of this team.

The Bulls are allowing just 91.8 points/game overall, including 88.8 points/game at home. They have given up 87 or less points in five straight games, yielding an average of 84.6 points/game over this span, and that even includes an overtime game.

Chicago's biggest weakness is an offense that averages 93.3 points/game, including 91.8 at home. The loss of leading scorer Luol Deng (hamstring) has really hurt its offense of late as the Bulls are averaging a mere 87.6 points/game in their last five. Deng is questionable to return tonight.

A quick look at the recent history between the Bobcats and Bulls, and it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with this UNDER tonight. Chicago and Charlotte have combined for 185 or less points in each of their last five meetings with combined scores of 185, 184, 159, 168 and 172 points. That includes the 91-81 victory by the Bobcats on 12/31 in their lone meeting this season.

Chicago is 7-0 UNDER in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Bulls are 7-0 UNDER revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Bobcats last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Bulls last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. These five trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Raptors UNDER 202

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors. I look for this to be a defensive battle between two of the most underrated teams in the league.

Golden State comes in hungry for a victory after back-to-back road losses to Chicago and Milwaukee. After giving up 103 points to the Bulls and 109 to the Bucks, there's no question that head coach Mark Jackson is going to preach defense to his team heading into this one.

Toronto is also hungry for a win after dropping six of its last eight, including a 98-99 home loss to Cleveland last time out. This is one of the more underrated defensive teams in the game, especially at home where they are allowing only 95.3 points/game.

Just looking at team averages alone, it's easy to see that there is value with this UNDER tonight. Golden State combines with its opponents to average 200.1 points/game on the season, while Toronto combines with its opponents to average 197.5 points/game.

The Raptors are 21-7 to the UNDER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Paul Casey is 13-3 to the UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game as the coach of Toronto.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 19-8 in Raptors last 28 home games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto. The Raptors beat the Warriors 83-75 for 158 combined points the last time these teams met up. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NBA Pre-All Star GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks -7

This is an excellent situation to back the Dallas Mavericks tonight, so much so that I have selected them as my strongest NBA release prior to the All-Star break. I look for them to roll by double-digits tonight over the lowly Phoenix Suns.

Dallas is playing much better now that Dirk Nowitzki is finally back and healthy. The Mavericks are 5-3 SU and a sensational 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall with their only losses coming to the Clippers, Thunder and Spurs all by 6 points or less.

Phoenix is a very tough spot tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. After falling at San Antonio 99-108 last night, I look for the Suns to really wear down in this one and not have anything left to give in the 2nd half. That's where the Mavs will pull away.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (DALLAS) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days.

Phoenix is a woeful 4-18 on the road this season. It is giving up a whopping 103.9 points/game on the road, getting outscored by 8.4 points/game away from home this year.

Dallas is 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Phoenix. It is also 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home meetings against the Suns dating back to 2010. All five of those wins came by 6 points or more, including four by 9 points or more. Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets are clearly undervalued right now due to losing eight of their last 10 games overall. They should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Brooklyn Nets, who come in overvalued due to winning 10 of their last 12 games overall.

Brooklyn has been taking advantage of a very easy schedule during its recent run, but it finally met its match last night in an ugly 77-101 loss at Memphis. Houston had played a very tough schedule before getting back on track of late against some softer competition. It won 100-82 at New Orleans last night, which was a win it needed to regain its confidence.

Houston is a perfect 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Brooklyn. It has won all 11 of those meetings by 5 points or more, which dates back to 2006. That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing to Rockets since 2006 pertaining to tonight's spread of -2.5.

The Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Brooklyn is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a S.U. loss. Take the Rockets Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -4

The Memphis Grizzlies are showing excellent value as only a 4-point home favorite over the Brooklyn Nets tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Grizz in this spot as I fully expect a blowout by game's end.

Brooklyn is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now due to winning 10 of its last 11 games overall. However, must of those wins have come against weak competition with the likes of the Wizards, Kings, 76ers, Suns, Raptors and Timberwolves mixed in. The schedule finally gets tougher starting tonight.

Memphis remains one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. That's evident by the fact that it is 27-14 SU and an incredible 24-15-2 ATS on the year. The Grizzlies are 16-6 at home this season, giving up just 87.0 points/game. The Nets are a mediocre 10-9 on the road.

The Grizzlies are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Memphis is 47-22-3 ATS in its last 72 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Grizzlies are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet Memphis Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Hornets -2.5

The New Orleans Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now. I have been riding them with a ton of success lately, and I'll continue backing them at a great price tonight as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Houston Rockets.

New Orleans is 7-3 SU and a sensational 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. It has beaten the likes of San Antonio and Houston at home, while also topping Dallas and Boston on the road during this stretch. This team is much better than its 14-28 record would indicate due to the recent return of G Eric Gordon.

Houston is stuck in a free-fall right now, yet it is still getting treated like one of the better teams in the West. That certainly isn't the case as the Rockets are 1-8 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Both James Harden and Jeremy Lin have been asked to do too much for this team, and as a result each is starting to wear down.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series to say the least. The home team has won each of the last seven meetings in this series dating back to 2011. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New Orleans.

The Rockets are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 road games. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. division opponents. These seven trends combine for a perfect 40-0 system backing New Orleans. Take the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -9.5

The Miami Heat will roll by double-digits tonight over the Detroit Pistons. After a five-day layoff, they were a little rusty against an underrated Toronto team on Wednesday, needing overtime to win 123-116.

Now that the Heat have shaken off the rust, they will turn their attention to a Pistons team that actually beat them 109-99 in their most recent meeting in Detroit on December 28th. Miami will certainly want revenge from that defeat while getting back to its domination in this series.

Miami has won seven of its last eight meetings with Detroit. Four of those seven wins came by 14 points or more, including a 98-75 victory in their most recent home meeting on April 8th, 2012.

The Heat are 17-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.1 points/game. The Pistons are 4-16 on the road this season, scoring a mere 92.5 points/game away from home.

Detroit is 0-7 ATS after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less this season. The Pistons are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Heat are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Pistons. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Heat Friday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 189.5

The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics are very familiar foes in the Atlantic Division. There is no love lost between these teams, especially after the Carmelo Anthony/KG war of words in Boston's 102-96 win at New York on January 7th just over two weeks ago. I look for the defensive intensity to be at a regular-season high for both teams tonight.

It's no surprise that New York has been prone to the UNDER since losing starting PG Raymond Felton to injury. In fact, the UNDER is 3-0 in New York's last three games overall. It has combined with its opponents to average 183 points/game in its last three contests.

Boston is really struggling right now as it just cannot find easy point. It has lost three straight while scoring a mere 88.8 points/game in the process. If the Celtics want to be competitive tonight, they'll have to rely on a defense that is only allowing 93.4 points/game at home this year.

The UNDER is 8-1 (89%) in Knicks last 9 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 19-8 in Knicks last 27 Thursday games. The UNDER is 6-1 (86%) in Celtics last 7 home games as they've combined with their opponents to average just 180.1 points/game. The UNDER is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 42-19-3 in Celtics last 64 Thursday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7

The Washington Wizards have been the best team to back in the NBA over the past couple weeks. They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and they should not be a 7-point dog to the Utah Jazz tonight.

Washington is 5-2 SU and a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. Its only losses came 94-95 at Sacramento as a 5-point dog, and 87-94 at the Los Angeles Clippers as a 13-point dog.

The biggest reason for the Wizards' resurgence is that PG John Wall has returned to the line-up. He has been on board the past six games, so it's no surprise that they are playing their best basketball right now. Wall is averaging 14.0 points and 6.7 assists in six games this year.

This play falls into a system that is 46-22 (67.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.

Washington is 10-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The Wizards are 9-0 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. The Jazz are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Utah is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Take the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Hornets +10.5

The New Orleans Hornets head into this game with the San Antonio Spurs playing their best basketball of the season. They should not be catching double-digits tonight because of it.

New Orleans has gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games overall. This run has coincided with the return of G Eric Gordon from injury. He leads the team in scoring at 17.4 points per game. and he's played in just 10 games all season.

New Orleans has played San Antonio very tough this season. All three meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, including a 95-88 New Orleans home victory on January 7th. The Hornets also lost 95-99 at home on 10/31, and 94-99 on the road on 12/21.

This play falls into a system that is 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games.

The Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southwest. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. Western Conference foes. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 vs. Western Conference opponents. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

Note: I locked in the Hornets early this morning before it was announced that Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard would be out, while Manu Ginobli is expected to return. I still recommend the Hornets +8.5 (the current line as of 2:00 EST) as a 20* play.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 183

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons. I look for a low-scoring affair tonight as neither team exceeds 90 points in this one.

Chicago has been without leading scorer Luol Deng (17.4 PPG) in its last two contests, and with no surprise those two games have gone UNDER the number. Chicago lost at home to Memphis 82-85 (OT) on Saturday before beating the Lakers 95-83 on Monday. Deng remains questionable to return tonight.

This has been a low-scoring affair between the Bulls and Pistons in recent meetings. Not counting overtime, the Bulls and Pistons have combined for 182 or less points in four of their last five meetings. The four have been 182, 160, 164 and 172 points.

The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Pistons last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Pistons last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 3-0-2 in Pistons last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago. These four trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 23-8 in Bulls last 31 home games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4

The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a victory tonight as they travel to face the Cleveland Cavaliers. Boston will be looking to put an end to a 3-game losing streak, which included an ugly 88-103 loss at Detroit on Sunday. The Celtics have one of the best head coaches in the league in Doc Rivers, and he'll get his team to respond tonight.

"We are playing awful and I am clearly not doing my job for this team - and I am serious," Rivers said. "I am not trying to take a bullet for the team and I told them that. I said we have to find something where all 12 guys play the same way."

"I gotta either find the right combination or the right guys, or we're going to get some guys out of here," he said following Sunday's loss to Detroit. "That's the bottom line. This group right now, they're not playing right. It's in them to play right. But right now they haven't been either because I'm not getting to them, or they're not getting to each other."

The Celtics have an excellent chance of getting back on track against the lowly Cavaliers, who are just 10-32 on the season. They have played their worst basketball at home this season, going just 4-12 SU & 4-12 ATS. Their season is basically lost already, especially with the news that Anderson Varejao will be out for the rest of the season.

This play falls into a system that is 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - after playing 3 consecutive road games, playing with 2 days rest. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* Spurs/76ers TNT ATS ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -6

The San Antonio Spurs are once again a covering machine this season. They are 32-11 SU & 25-17-1 ATS on the year and somehow they continue to go under the radar. Once again, they are undervalued as only a 6-point favorite over the lowly Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

The 76ers are really struggling of late, losing 14 of their last 19 games overall with 12 of those losses coming by 6 points or more. That includes recent losses to New Orleans (99-111), Toronto (72-90), Brooklyn (89-109), San Antonio (86-109) and Oklahoma City (85-109).

The Spurs have really had the 76ers' number in recent meetings. They have won three straight over Philadelphia all by 10 points or more. That includes their 109-86 home victory over the 76ers on January 5th earlier this month. San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Philadelphia.

The Spurs are 40-17-4 ATS in their last 61 games following a S.U. win. San Antonio is 34-15-3 ATS in its last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Spurs are 41-19-2 ATS in their last 62 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The 76ers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Knicks UNDER 193.5

The books have set the bar too high Sunday between the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks. This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these teams, so they are certainly familiar with one another. Familiarity usually breeds low-scoring games.

The first three meetings this year have seen 185 (OT), 197 and 186 combined points. They have combined to average 183.7 points/game (not counting overtime) in those three contests. That alone lets you know that there's at least 10 points of value with this UNDER.

Another big reason to back the UNDER is the fact that the Knicks are now a slow it down team without starting PG Raymond Felton, who is out with a finger injury. Their offense just doesn't run as smoothly without him out there running the pick and roll.

Brooklyn is 16-6 to the UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 20-7 in Nets last 27 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 19-7-2 in Nets last 28 road games overall. The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in New York. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The Minnesota Timberwolves are way undervalued right now due to their recent string of injuries to good players like Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic. However, what the betting public fails to realize is that this team is one of the deepest in the league, which allows it to overcome these injuries and remain competitive.

That was on display last time out as the Timberwolves made easy work of the Houston Rockets by a final of 92-79. They had six different players score in double figures in a complete team win. Andrei Kirilenko led the way with 21, followed by Luke Ridnour (16), Chris Johnson (15), Derrick Williams (11), Jose Barea (11) and Mickael Gelabale (11).

The Atlanta Hawks are playing their worst basketball of the season right now, which is why they should not be an 8-point favorite today. They are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last ten games overall. That includes an embarrassing 58-97 loss at Chicago on January 14th. Atlanta also has injury issues of its own as Devin Harris and Deshawn Stevenson are questionable, while Lou Williams is out for the season.

This play falls into a system that is 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (ATLANTA) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Bobcats OVER 206.5

The Houston Rockets are coming off a 79-92 loss at Minnesota, which has certainly influenced the oddsmakers heading into Monday's showdown with the Charlotte Bobcats. The Rockets shot a season-worst 32.1% in that game, and there's no question they'll turn it around and get their offense going today.

Houston is one of the highest-scoring teams in the league at 104.5 points/game. They play at the fastest tempo in the league, which is also a big reason why they give up a whopping 103.5 points/game.

Charlotte is not a great offensive team (95.0 PPG), but it will certainly get its offense going against this soft Houston defense. Also, the Bobcats are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as well. They give up 103.3 points/game on the season.

Houston is 50-27 to the OVER in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The OVER is 6-1 in Bobcats last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver +1

The Denver Nuggets are highly motivated for a win Sunday for a couple different reasons. They are coming off an ugly home loss to the Washington Wizards on Friday as a double-digit favorite.

However, I picked the Wizards +10 in that game knowing that the Nuggets would likely be looking ahead to this game with the Thunder. That's because they want revenge from a 97-117 road loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday.

The Thunder will be the team looking ahead in this one. After just beating the Nuggets only four days ago, they won't be motivated at all to beat them again. Plus, they have a road game against the Los Angeles Clippers on deck Tuesday, and they'll be looking ahead to that huge showdown between the top two teams in the West.

Denver is 15-3 at home this season. Oklahoma City is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 games after a close loss by 3 points or less. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on San Antonio Spurs -3.5

The San Antonio Spurs are showing solid value as only a 4-point road favorite over the Atlanta Hawks tonight. They have won 12 of their last 15 games overall and should have no problem making easy work of the struggling Hawks in this one.

Atlanta has lost seven of its last nine games overall coming into this one. That includes losses to Cleveland and Washington both by double-digits, which is a clear sign that there is something wrong with this team right now. They don't have what it takes to compete against a title contender like San Antonio from the West.

The Spurs have won 10 of their last 11 meetings with the Hawks while going 8-3 ATS in the process. All 10 wins came by 6 points or more. Dating back further, San Antonio is 22-7 SU & 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 meetings with Atlanta.

San Antonio is 42-19-4 ATS in its last 65 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Atlanta is 6-18 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The Spurs are 9-1 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Bet San Antonio Saturday.

20* Thunder/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 205.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between Western Conference rivals Dallas and Oklahoma City. These teams are very familiar with one another after squaring off in the playoffs last year. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

A quick look at all meetings between these teams over the past two seasons and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Not counting overtime, each of the last eight meetings between the Mavs & Thunder have seen 201 or less combined points at the end of regulation. That's a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.

This play falls into a system that is 36-13 (73.5%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 105 points or more.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 7-0 in the Mavs last 7 Friday games. Combine these two trends with the 8-0 one based on their recent head-to-head history, and we have a perfect 19-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Washington Wizards +10

I have ridden the Washington Wizards with success in their last couple of games. They have won three of their last four with their only loss coming 94-95 at Sacramento as a 5-point underdog last time out. Their three wins came at home over the Thunder, Hawks, and Magic with two of the three coming by double-digits.

This is a completely different Washington team now with John Wall back in the line-up. His energy is contagious, and you can see it coming off in his teammates during this four-game stretch. He makes the job of everyone on offense easier, creating looks for open teammates.

It's no coincidence that the Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. They are once again undervalued as a 10-point dog to the Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver is a great home team, but it certainly has a tendency to play down to its competition.

The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Washington is 40-22 ATS off a close road loss of 3 points or less since 1996. The Wizards are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season. Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* Bulls/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -3

I have been riding the Boston Celtics with a lot of success lately. They have won six of their last seven games overall while going 5-2 ATS in the process. Off a loss last time out, the Celtics are once again undervalued as only a 3-point favorite over the Bulls tonight.

Chicago comes in overvalued after back-to-back wins, which included a 97-58 home victory over Atlanta. It needed overtime to win at Toronto last time out, and there's no question that it is the more tired team heading into this one.

The Bulls will be playing their 5th game in 8 days, while the Celtics will only be playing their 3rd game in 7 days. Boston does have some veteran on its team like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, so playing on good rest is very important for the Celtics.

The home team has won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series with all nine wins coming by 4 points or more. The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Take the Celtics Friday.