20* Lakers/Spurs ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 192.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER in Game 1 in what will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Los Angeles' scheme has changed completely since losing Kobe Bryant for the season. They now have to slow the game down and run their offense through big men Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, which is something they probably should have been doing more of all season.

The results have been absolutely stunning. They are playing better as a team, especially defensively as their opponents get less possessions. The Lakers beat the Spurs 91-86 on April 14th in their first game without Kobe for 177 combined points. They came back with a 99-95 (OT) victory over the high-scoring Houston Rockets on April 17th in a game that was tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points.

This play falls into a system that is 76-36 (67.9%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games.

San Antonio is 7-0 to the UNDER versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 Sunday games, 3-0-2 in their last 5 games when playing on 3 or more days rest, and 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Quarterfinal games. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

Note - I locked this play in as soon as the lines came out on Thursday. It has already dropped a couple points. I still recommend the UNDER as a 20* play at anything 189 or above. Anything less it drops to a 15* play.

15* Hawks/Pacers TNT Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -6.5

I look for the Indiana Pacers to roll to a blowout victory over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1 of this series Sunday. The Pacers are the most underrated team heading into the 2013 playoffs, and I believe they have the best shot of beating the Miami Heat down the road.

Their run to the Eastern Conference Finals starts with this Game 1 against the hapless Atlanta Hawks, who stumbled into the playoffs losing five of their final seven games. A big reason for their struggles have been injuries to Josh Smith (knee) and Al Horford (shoulder), who are their two best players. While each is expected to give it a go in Game 1, neither will be at 100%.

Indiana has done an excellent job of protecting its home court all season. It is 30-11 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 7.7 points/game. One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that home-court advantage is huge.

The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series between Atlanta and Indiana dating back to 2010. The Pacers won both home meetings this season with a 114-103 victory on February 5th, and a 100-94 triumph on March 25th. The home team is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take the Pacers Sunday.

15* Bulls/Nets ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls are finally getting healthy heading into the 2013 NBA playoffs. Sure, they're still missing Derrick Rose, but they have been used to that for over a year now. The key is getting Noah, Gibson, Hamilton and company healthy.

When they are healthy aside from Rose, the Bulls are capable of beating anyone in the league. I look for them to go into Brooklyn and steal Game 1 Saturday, which is the easiest game for an underdog to win in any series.

Chicago clearly matches up well with Brooklyn given their season history. The Bulls went 3-1 in their four meetings with the Nets with their only loss coming by a final of 89-93 on February 1st in Brooklyn. They have now won seven of the last nine meetings in this series dating back to 2011.

The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Brooklyn. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. These four trends combine for an 18-1 (95%) system backing Chicago. Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

25* NBA Opening Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 193.5

The books have set the bar too high in this Game 1 showdown between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. These two Eastern Conference rivals will play part in a defensive battle today in New York.

Playoff basketball brings out the best intensity defensively in most teams, especially these two. New York is expected to get several of its top defenders back for the playoffs in Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby. That will make this team a lot harder to score against.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. New York allows just 95.7 points/game overall and 94.0 points/game at home. Both of those numbers will go down now that they are healthy. Boston yields 96.7 points/game overall while scoring just 94.6 points/game on the road.

All four meetings between these teams this season have seen less than 200 combined points. Considering they have played four times already this year, they are obviously very familiar with one another. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

New York is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are combining with their opponents to average 183.6 points/game in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Note - I locked this play in right when the lines came out on Thursday. I can see this total is already dropping. I still recommend a bet on the UNDER as a 25* play at 190 or more. Anything less makes it a 20* play for you.

15* Celtics/Knicks ABC Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +7.5

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of this series Saturday. Remember, this is a Boston team that took Miami to a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

What I'm saying is that Doc Rivers always has his teams playing their best basketball in the playoffs. That's why he is one of the best head coaches in the league, and I look for him to have the Celtics hitting on all Cylinders in Game 1 Saturday.

New York is being overvalued here due to earning the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, and due to beating the Celtics each of the last three times these teams met in the regular season. That will only add fuel to Boston's fire as they want revenge. The easiest game for an underdog to steal is Game 1 of a series.

The Knicks have won exactly ONE playoff game over the past 11 seasons. Carmelo Anthony has a 17-37 career playoff record, which is one of the worst marks for any individual player in NBA history. Yet, the team continues to get so much respect from oddsmakers.

Boston is 12-2 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. It is coming back to win in this spot by a whopping 11.0 points/game. The Celtics are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the Celtics Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +5.5

I'm fading the Brooklyn Nets once again tonight because they have nothing to play for as they are already locked into the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. I did so with success Monday as the Wizards +6 covered at Brooklyn.

The Nets rested Deron Williams, Brooke Lopez and Reggie Evans in that game against Washington. It would be foolish for them to play any of their starters in this one as the most important thing is to be healthy going into the playoffs.

It doesn't matter who the Nets put on the floor in this one. Whoever is out there will be looking ahead to the playoffs and not interested at all in beating the Pistons. Detroit, meanwhile, wants to win this game knowing it will be its last contest of the season.

The Pistons have been playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, too. They have won four straight coming in, and they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. All three of their outright losses during this span have come by 6 points or less. Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -2.5

The Charlotte Bobcats (20-61) are tied with the Orlando Magic for the worst record in the league. As most of you remember, they set an NBA record for futility last season by winning the lowest percentage of games in a season in NBA history.

Charlotte doesn't want to be known as the worst team in the league for a second straight season, so it will be laying it all on the line to get a victory tonight. It has been playing well down the stretch, especially at home.

The Bobcats have won seven of their last nine home games following back-to-back wins over Milwaukee and New York. Cleveland has clearly packed it in, losing five straight and 15 of its last 17 games overall coming in.

Cleveland is 5-15 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The Cavaliers are 5-15 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is 15-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +9

The San Antonio Spurs have no business being a 9-point favorite over the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. San Antonio has absolutely nothing to play for as it is locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

The Spurs rested Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard in a 96-106 loss at Golden State on Monday. While all three of these players are listed as probable to play tonight, it's only because Greg Popovich wants to make sure they aren't rusty heading into the playoffs.

San Antonio won't be thinking about beating Minnesota tonight, let alone beating it by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this massive spread. The Timberwolves realize this is their final game of the season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line because of it.

Minnesota is 25-14 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. San Antonio is just 12-21 ATS in the second half of the season this season. Take the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 180.5

With something at stake for both Utah and Memphis, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. Utah needs a win and a Lakers' loss to make the playoffs, while Memphis need a win and a Clippers' loss to earn home-court advantage in the Western Conference.

Playing at home, Memphis will control the tempo in this one, which has been at a snail's pace of late. The UNDER is 7-1 in the Grizzlies' last 8 games overall with combined scores of 182, 170, 170, 176, 179, 160, 178 and 200 points.

I look for this game to be played a similar pace as the last time these teams met up on March 16th about a month ago. Memphis won 90-84 at home for 174 combined points. Baskets will be hard to come by with the kind of effort each team will be giving defensively with what's at stake.

Memphis is 26-9 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Utah is 20-9 to the UNDER after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Miami Heat have nothing to play for as they have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the East and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. I'll gladly fade them when they shouldn't even be favored against Orlando tonight given the scenario.

Lebron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade are all doubtful heading into this one. Ray Allen, Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier are questionable. All Miami is concerned about is getting healthy for its opening round match-up with Milwaukee, not beating Orlando tonight.

I look for the Magic to lay it all on the line in this game. It will be their final game of the season, and they want to beat their in-state rivals. Even more, they are tied with the Charlotte Bobcats at 20-61 on the season for the league's worst record. They don't want to be known as the worst team in the league.

This play falls into a system that is 69-28 (71.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (ORLANDO) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks Tuesday night. This is a very important game for Atlanta as it tries to lock up the No. 5 seed in the East. I look for it to be on top of its game defensively because of it.

Toronto has been playing very well of late, winning five of its last six games overall. While it hasn't been hitting on all cylinders offensively, it has been winning because of solid defense. The Raptors are scoring 92.8 points/game and allowing 90.7 points/game in their last six games overall, combining with their opponents to average 183.5 points/game.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER tonight is the recent head-to-head history between these teams. The Raptors and Hawks have combined for 196 or less points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2011. They have combined to average 186.4 points/game over this span.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Phoenix Suns want revenge from a 98-101 road loss as a 14.5-point underdog to the Houston Rockets on April 9th less than a week ago. Jermaine O'Neal was called for goaltending at the buzzer on a questionable call.

Houston has little to play for right now as it is guaranteed to be either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. I have a hard time seeing the Rockets being motivated enough to beat a team they just beat less than a week ago by more than 7 points tonight.

Phoenix comes in the fresher team as well. The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Sacramento Kings at home last night.

The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Rockets are 9-19 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +6

The Washington Wizards get the nod Monday as a road underdog to the Brooklyn Nets in a game I fully expect them to win outright. I'm only taking the points for some added insurance in this one folks.

The Wizards have been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 45-34-1 ATS in all games this year. Off four straight losses with three coming against playoff contenders, the Wizards will be hungry for a win tonight.

Brooklyn has no reason to even be motivated to play this game Monday. That's because it has already wrapped up the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It is locked into the No. 4 seed as it cannot move up or down.

Making sure they're fresh for the playoffs is a much bigger priority. Deron Williams is one of several players who could be rested tonight against the Wizards, so I have no doubt that the Wizards will be putting the more talented team on the floor.

Plus, Washington will be the much fresher team as it will be playing on two days' rest having last played on Friday in a loss to Philadelphia. Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days following an 87-93 loss at Toronto Sunday.

The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nets are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Brooklyn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games. Take the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Detroit Pistons will run away with a victory tonight at home over the Philadelphia 76ers. I like how the Pistons are playing down the stretch as they clearly are not packing it in just yet. They are playing out their season.

That's evident by the fact that the Pistons are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They have also won three straight coming in with victories over the Bulls, Cavs and Bobcats by a combined 41 points.

Detroit comes in well-rested on two days' rest having last played on Friday in a 113-93 home victory over the Charlotte Bobcats. Philadelphia is a tired team as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days after a 91-77 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.

The 76ers are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games playing on 0 days rest. Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Roll with Detroit Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Bobcats -1

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value at home against the New York Knicks tonight. The Knicks are in a huge letdown spot in this one, and I don't even expect them to show up as a result.

New York is surely going to rest several of its key players after clinching the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 90-80 home victory over the Indiana Pacers Sunday. Now, it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days short-handed.

Carmelo Anthony is expected to rest. New York - still without big men Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire, Rasheed Wallace and Marcus Camby - is ready to get some rest.

The Bobcats have lost 14 straight and 21 of 22 on the road, but they're playing well at home toward season's end. Charlotte beat Milwaukee 95-85 on Saturday for its sixth win in eight games at Time Warner Cable Arena. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic opponents. Bet Charlotte Monday.

20* Spurs/Lakers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. Both teams have a lot to play for, and I look for a defensive battle because of it.

Los Angeles is fighting to make the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. San Antonio is battling it out with Oklahoma City for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

This play falls into a system that is 75-35 (68.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Knicks/Pacers NBA Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 194

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers. This is a huge game in the Eastern Conference as both teams are fighting to earn that coveted No. 2 seed in the East to get home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs.

This play falls into a system that is 130-67 (66%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (INDIANA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, on Sunday games. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Clippers/Grizzlies NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Memphis -3

The Memphis Grizzlies sit at 54-25 on the season, yet they would be just the No. 5 seed in the West if the season were to end today. However, they are tied with the Nuggets at 54-25 for the No. 3 seed, but Denver owns the tiebreaker.

With home-court advantage in the first round on the line, the Grizzlies are taking this game more seriously than the Los Angeles Clippers, who already have home-court advantage in the first round locked up after winning the Pacific Division.

Memphis has saved its best basketball for last. It is 7-1 in its last eight games overall with its only loss coming on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers by a mere two points (86-84).

Getting home-court advantage in the first round is huge considering that the Grizzlies are 31-8 at home this season. The Clippers are a mediocre 22-17 on the road this season, and they barely beat New Orleans 96-93 last night as a 9-point favorite.

Both teams come in playing the second of a back-to-back. However, Los Angeles will be the more tired team as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days. This will only be the 2nd game in 4 days for the Grizzlies, who had two days' rest coming into last night's 82-78 road victory at Houston.

Memphis is 40-17 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 26-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Memphis is 26-10 ATS in its last 36 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on T'Wolves/Jazz UNDER 196

This is a very important game for the Utah Jazz tonight as they trail the Los Angeles Lakers by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. I look for them to be timid offensively, but to be at the top of their game defensively with what's at stake.

In fact, that has appeared to be the case with the Jazz over the last week as they are really feeling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs. Utah's last three games have resulted in an 80-90 loss to the Thunder for 170 combined points, a 97-90 victory at Golden State for 187 combined points, and a 95-83 victory over New Orleans for 178 combined points.

This recent low-scoring trend, plus the head-to-head meetings thus far with the Timberwolves this season, has me backing the UNDER. Utah beat Minnesota 106-84 at home in their first meeting of the season on January 2nd for 190 combined points. The Jazz also won in Minnesota 97-93 on February 13th for 190 combined points.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last 8 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 16-7 in Jazz last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavericks UNDER 206.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. Denver is trying to secure the No. 3 seed in the West, while Dallas is trying to reach its goal of getting back to .500 on the season. I look for the defensive intensity to be high from both teams because of these scenarios.

The Nuggets aren't nearly the potent offensive team they were before they lost Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari to injury. They've had to rely a lot more on defense of late, giving up just 87, 96, 94, 114 and 86 points in their last five games overall. That 114-point effort was against the Rockets, so it can be thrown out.

Dallas has really been struggling offensively of late, scoring 81, 94, 117, 96 and 91 points in its last five games overall. That 117-point effort was against the Sacramento Kings, so it can really be thrown out as well.

When you look at the recent head-to-head history between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. In both meetings this season, the Nuggets and Mavs have combined for 189 and 191 points with Denver winning each time. In fact, they have combined for 208 or less in each of their last seven meetings.

This play falls into a system that is 29-7 (80.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights.

The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Nuggets last 12 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Mavericks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +5

The New York Knicks just had their 13-game winning streak snapped with a 111-118 (OT) loss to the Chicago Bulls last night. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat, and for the Cleveland Cavaliers to take advantage and likely win this game outright.

New York comes in a very tired team as this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 7th game in 11 days for the Knicks. This is a short-handed team as it is with all of its injury problems. Raymond Felton (knee) is questionable, while Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire and Rasheed Wallace are all expected to miss tonight's game.

Cleveland has played New York very tough this season, but it has come up short in both meetings. The Cavaliers lost 102-103 at New York on December 15th in their first meeting, and 97-102 at home on March 4th in their second. There's no question that Cleveland wants revenge tonight. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland.

New York is 2-14 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Cleveland is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Cavaliers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Pacers UNDER 187.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers. With both teams having a lot to play for, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight when they meet up.

Indiana is just two games behind New York for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. It is also trying to hold off No. 4 Brooklyn, which is trying to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Given these scenarios, the defensive intensity is going to be high tonight.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The two meetings between the Pacers and Nets this season have seen 173 and 183 combined points. The final two meetings of last season saw 184 and 181 combined points. They have not topped 184 combined points while averaging 180.3 points/game in their last four meetings.

Brooklyn has really picked it up defensively of late, allowing just 91.8 points/game in its last five games overall. Indiana allows just 90.2 points/game overall, including 88.8 points/game at home this season.

The Pacers are 19-4 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last 5 Friday games. The UNDER is 20-8 in Nets last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Thunder/Warriors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder realize that they control their own destiny. Tied with the San Antonio Spurs with the best record in the West at 57-21, the Thunder own the tiebreaker. That means they just need to win out and they'll get the No. 1 seed in the West.

Golden State has a lot less to play for as it's either going to be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the West, which isn't a huge difference. The Warriors are being overvalued here because they have won four of five coming in.

All four of those victories came against non-playoff teams in the Blazers, Hornets, Suns and Timberwolves with three of them coming at home. Their lone loss was a 90-97 setback at home against the Utah Jazz, who were the only team that had something to play for during this run.

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is 41-18-3 ATS in its last 62 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Warriors are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Golden State is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hornets/Kings OVER 201.5

This is a meaningless game for both the New Orleans Hornets and Sacramento Kings. That's why I believe neither team will be getting after it defensively, which will allow for a high-scoring battle.

I fully expect both teams to eclipse the 100-point mark in this one. One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight folks.

Both meetings this season have seen 205 or more combined points. New Orleans beat Sacramento 110-95 at home on February 24th in their most recent meeting. The Hornets also beat the Kings 114-105 on January 21st for 219 combined points.

Sacramento is 11-1 to the OVER in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons. It is seeing an average of 214.4 points/game in this spot. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nets/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle on National TV tonight when these two get together on ESPN.

Both teams have a lot to play for as each is trying to improve its seeding. Brooklyn is coming close to clinching the No. 4 spot and home-court advantage in the first round. Boston is trying to avoid dropping to the No. 8 spot, which would mean it would have to face Miami in the first round.

One look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. In their two most recent meetings, the Nets and Celtics combined for 169 points on December 25th, and 178 points on November 28th. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with combined scores of 178 or less points eight times.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Nets last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5

The Orlando Magic should not be an underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Milwaukee is all but locked into the No. 8 seed, which means it will be facing Miami in the first round of the playoffs.

Knowing that their fate is already sealed, the Bucks won't show up for this game tonight. They'll be more interested in resting their players in these final few games than winning them.

Orlando continues to battle down the stretch as it tries to avoid finishing with the league's worst record. While it has lost five straight coming in, all five losses came on the road with four of them to playoff contenders in Atlanta, Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. Plus, four of those five losses came by 9 points or less, so they were right there with a chance to win.

Milwaukee is 1-10 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bucks are 1-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Magic are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. These five trends combine for a 36-2 system backing Orlando. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Grizzlies UNDER 186.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Charlotte Bobcats and Memphis Grizzlies. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this contest tonight folks.

Memphis is a lockdown defensive team that won't allow the Charlotte Bobcats to exceed 80 points tonight. The Grizzlies only allow 89.7 points/game overall, including 87.6 points/game at home. The Bobcats score just 90.7 points/game on the road this year.

One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The last three meetings between the Bobcats and Grizzlies have seen 181, 165 and 178 combined points. That's an average of 174.7 points/game, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total. In fact, six of the last seven meetings in this series have seen 187 or fewer combined points.

Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games overall as they have combined with each of their last five opponents for 185 or less points. These two trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Miami Heat don't have much to play for the rest of the way after already clinching the No. 1 spot in the Eastern Conference over a week ago. They can still afford to lose a couple more games before having to worry about losing home-court advantage throughout the playoffs against the Western Conference.

This scenario is why I believe that the Heat have been resting players down the stretch. They don't really care about the outcome of these games or they wouldn't do it. Once again, they are expected to rest Dwyane Wade (out), and they are likely to rest Chris Bosh (doubtful) as well.

Milwaukee has a lot to play for tonight. It can still catch No. 7 Boston in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Even if it doesn't catch the Celtics, it wants to send a message to the Miami Heat that they will be in for a series if the Bucks have to settle for the No. 8 spot.

The Bucks have already proven they can play with the Heat this year, winning 104-85 at home on December 29th. They also put up a fight on the road on November 21st, falling 106-113 as a 9.5-point underdog. In fact, Milwaukee is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last 7 meetings with Miami.

Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. The Heat are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. NBA Central opponents. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Miami. Take Milwaukee Tuesday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Wizards +10

The Washington Wizards represent my strongest release for the entire 2012-13 season Tuesday night as they travel to face the New York Knicks. Every team gets up to play inside of Madison Square Garden, and the Wizards will relish the experience tonight and make the most of it.

New York comes in way overvalued due to its 12-game winning streak heading into this one. It has also gone 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall, and now oddsmakers have been forced to set the number so high that the Knicks cannot possibly live up to the expectations they have created for themselves.

This is a huge letdown spot for New York. That's because it is coming off one of its biggest wins of the season in a 125-120 road victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. That game was nationally televised on ABC Sunday afternoon.

Washington has been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. That's evident by the fact that it is a very profitable 45-31 ATS in all games this year. The Wizards want to even the season series tonight after dropping two of their first three to New York. They won't have any problem getting motivated to try and put an end to this 10-game winning streak.

The Wizards are a sensational 17-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. This trend just goes to show how they take payback personally, and 85% of the time they have come back to cover the spread against these opponents. Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +5.5

The Utah Jazz are showing excellent value as a 5.5-point underdog to the Golden State Warriors tonight. This is a much more important game for the Jazz (40-37), who trail the Los Angeles Lakers by 0.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Jazz have saved their best basketball of the season for last. In fact, they have won six of their last seven games overall. They are also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This team is handling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs very well.

The Warriors are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State is 7-17 ATS following two or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* Lakers/Clippers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles Lakers +5

The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value as a 5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday. This is a much more important game for the Lakers, and because they want it more, they'll cover this spread, likely winning outright.

The Lakers are 40-36 on the season, which has them 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have actually been playing their best basketball of the season of late with the stakes at their highest.

The Lakers have won three straight heading into this one with victories over the Kings (103-98), Mavericks (101-81) and Grizzlies (86-84). After losing the first three meetings of the season with the Clippers, the Lakers will clearly be out for revenge today.

This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells you to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent. Take the Lakers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Spurs UNDER 193.5

I'm siding with the UNDER in this game between the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs. I fully expect a defensive battle between these two solid defensive teams tonight.

A big reason I'm backing the UNDER in this contest is the fact that the Spurs are expected to be without Tony Parker (shin) and Manu Ginobli (hamstring), which are two of their best scorers.

Also, both teams have been prone to the UNDER of late. Atlanta is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games overall, combining with its opponents to average 187.3 points/game. San Antonio is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games, combining with its opponents to average 181.5 points/game.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have inflated this total tonight. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 191, 188 and 187 points.

Atlanta is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season. The Hawks are 7-0 to the UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots this season. Atlanta is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Throw in the fact that the UNDER is 4-0 in both team's last four games overall, and we have a combined 30-0 system backing the UNDER in this contest tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

Oddsmakers are giving us an absolute gift with the Los Angeles Lakers as only a small home favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. At 39-36 on the season, the Lakers would be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs if the season were to end today.

However, Los Angeles is just 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz, so it cannot afford to take a night off from here on out. Adding to the motivation for the Lakers is the fact that they've lost the first two meetings of the season to the Grizzlies, both of which were at Memphis.

This is a great spot to back the Lakers considering they will be coming in on two days' rest having last played on Tuesday in a huge 101-81 home win over the Dallas Mavericks. They were without Steve Nash in that game, and they likely will be again tonight, which isn't a big deal at all.

In fact, this team has arguably been better without Nash on the floor. It forces Kobe Bryant to become a facilitator, and he did just that against the Mavs. Bryant posted a triple-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists.

This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent.

Los Angeles is 23-7 in its last 30 home meetings with Memphis. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. Bet the Lakers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4.5

While the Houston Rockets have a lot to play for down the stretch, the Portland Trail Blazers have zero to play for at this point. With that in mind, I'll back the Rockets as a small favorite over the Blazers tonight in Portland.

Houston (42-33) sits 1.0 game behind Golden State for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. Whoever gets that seed will avoid having to face San Antonio and Oklahoma City in the first round, which is huge.

The Rockets have been playing well down the stretch, winning three straight over the Clippers, Magic and Kings heading into this one. That includes a 98-81 victory over the Clippers on March 30th.

Portland (33-42) is virtually eliminated from postseason contention, and it has been playing like it over the last few weeks. The Blazers have clearly packed it in, losers of six straight while going 0-5-1 ATS in the process.

In fact, all six of Portland's losses during this skid have come by double-digits. They were beaten by the Thunder (83-103), Warriors (98-125), and Jazz (102-112) on the road, and the Nets (93-111), Jazz (95-105) and Grizzlies (76-94) at home during this losing streak.

Houston beat Portland 118-103 in its last meeting on February 8th, and the Blazers are coming off that 76-94 home loss to Memphis. That's important considering this play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdogs (PORTLAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points. Take the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +8

The Golden State Warriors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as an 8-point road favorite over the Phoenix Suns. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Suns, who have played their best basketball at home this year.

Phoenix is 16-22 at home this season, and Golden State is 17-21 on the road. This is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate, which is the reason for backing the Suns at a great price tonight.

The Suns will be out for revenge after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Warriors. That includes an 85-87 home loss on October 31st in their lone home meeting. Meanwhile, Golden State will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team it has already beaten three times.

I like the Suns' chances for revenge tonight considering they are an amazing 28-5 SU in all home meetings with Golden State dating back to 1996. In fact, their five home losses during this stretch have come by two (87-85), two (106-104), ten (110-100), nine (92-83) and eight points (103-05). That makes for a 30-2-1 ATS angle backing the Suns since 1996. Roll with Phoenix Friday.

15* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Dallas Mavericks +7

The Dallas Mavericks have fought very hard to get back in position to make a run at the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 2.5 games for that final spot, and they aren't about to give up now.

Dallas catches the Denver Nuggets in a great spot tonight. Denver is coming off a big road win over the Utah Jazz (113-96) last night as it shot a ridiculous 56.2% from the field. That's the second straight game that it has shot better than 56%. The Nuggets are overvalued as a result, and they'll be tired playing the second of a back-to-back as well.

Home-court advantage means absolutely nothing in this series. In fact, a look at the recent history indicates that you actually want to be the road team. The visitor has won seven of the last nine meetings overall while going a superb 8-1 ATS. Dallas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Denver with its only loss coming by a single point.

The Mavericks are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games. The Mavericks are 25-8 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 13-2 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis -4

The Memphis Grizzlies are battling the Denver Nuggets for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. These teams are currently tied at 50-24 on the season, but the Nuggets own the tiebreaker. Denver would be the No. 3 seed, while Memphis would be the No. 5 if the season were to end today.

Playing with home-court advantage in the first round in mind, Memphis has proceeded to win three straight games over Houston, Minnesota and San Antonio heading into this one. While the Grizzlies have a ton to play for, the Blazers have nothing.

Portland has clearly quit on its season by going 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. What makes it so evident is the fact that all five losses have come by double-digits to Oklahoma City (83-103), Brooklyn (93-111), Utah (95-105), Golden State (98-125) and Utah (102-112) again.

This play falls into a system that is 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in April games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors come in highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Washington Wizards. Toronto has lost six of its last seven coming in with four of those losses coming against Eastern Conference playoff contenders in Miami, Atlanta and New York (twice).

The main reason the Raptors will be motivated tonight, though, is the fact that they just lost at Washington 92-109 on March 30th just four days ago. While Toronto wants payback, the Wizards will have a hard time getting motivated to beat them again.

Washington is not only in a huge letdown spot for that reason, but also because it is coming off a 90-86 home victory over the Chicago Bulls last night. It will now be a tired team as well playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.

The Wizards are 7-23 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Raptors are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home meetings with Washington. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* Pacers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Indiana Pacers. I look for them to win in a blowout due to the level of intensity and execution they bring to the court tonight.

The Clippers will be hungry to bounce back from a tough 1-3 road trip that features losses at Dallas, San Antonio and Houston. That includes an 81-98 loss to the Rockets last time out on Saturday, which really leaves a sour taste in their mouths.

Los Angeles is dangerously close to losing out on home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. In fact, it would be the No. 4 seed if the season were to end today, just 0.5 games ahead of the No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies.

The Pacers come in overvalued due to their current 4-game winning streak coming in, which includes three straight road wins over Houston, Dallas and Phoenix. They'll run out of gas here playing their 4th road game in 6 days against a Clippers team that simply wants it more.

Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Central division opponents this season, winning by 14.3 points/game. Indiana is 4-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Clippers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* Spurs/Grizzlies NBA Monday No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following an embarrassing defeat last night. Playing without Lebron James and Dwyane Wade, the Miami Heat went into San Antonio and stole a 98-96 victory.

You can bet that Gregg Popovich's team will come back hungry for a win tonight to make amends. That's especially the case considering the Spurs are just 1.5 games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage in the West.

San Antonio has simply owned this series in recent meetings. The Spurs are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Grizzlies. Their only loss came in Memphis earlier this season on January 11th by a final of 101-98 (OT).

The Spurs are 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. They are coming back to win in this spot by a whopping 13.5 points/game. Roll with the Spurs Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12.5

The Orlando Magic should not be catching double-digit points against the Houston Rockets tonight. This is an Orlando team that has been undervalued on the road all season, which is evident by its 21-15 ATS record away from home.

Houston has no business being favored by double-digits tonight considering it will likely be playing without leading scorer, James Harden (foot), who is listed as doubtful. It's also coming off a big 98-81 home victory over the Clippers, setting it up for a letdown spot tonight as it will have a hard time getting up for the Magic.

This play falls into a system that is 50-23 (68.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team.

Orlando is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings with Houston dating back to 2009. The road team has won six of the last 10 meetings outright. Take the Magic Monday.

15* Heat/Spurs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio -1

The San Antonio Spurs simply need this win more, and that's why I believe they'll get it. They lead the Oklahoma City Thunder by two games for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. They also trail the Miami Heat by two games for the No. 1 overall seed.

Miami has actually already clinched home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference. That's why I look for it to take nights off down the stretch and check out mentally, especially after having its 27-game winning streak just recently ended.

San Antonio wants revenge from three straight losses to Miami in this series. All three of those losses came on the road, including a 100-105 loss at Miami on November 29th in their first meeting this season. The Spurs nearly pulled off the upset despite playing without Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Danny Green and Manu Ginobli in that contest.

The Spurs are 32-4 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.4 points/game. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Spurs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take San Antonio Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -4

The Memphis Grizzlies will blow the Minnesota Timberwolves out of the building tonight. The Grizzlies would currently be the No. 5 seed in the West if the season were to end today, trailing the Clippers by just 0.5 games for No. 4 and Denver by 1.0 games for No. 3.

With playoff seeding on the line, don't expect Memphis to take a night off the rest of the way. That's why I'm not concerned with them coming back tonight and facing Minnesota after a big 103-94 home win over Houston last night.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are in a huge letdown spot following their shocking 101-93 upset home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. They won't even show up tonight off such a big win, especially considering how tired they are. Minnesota will be playing its 4th game in 5 days, and its 7th game in 10 days tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 58-26 (69%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.

Memphis simply owns Minnesota. It has gone 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves dating back to 2010. All 10 victories have come by 4 points or more. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Hornets +7

The Miami Heat are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They just had their 27-game winning streak snapped against Chicago on Wednesday, and it's going to be hard to get motivated to play the game after that crushing defeat. I look for the Heat to suffer a hangover effect because of it.

New Orleans has proven to be giant killers here of late as it continues to play out its season. It has won three of its last four with victories over Boston (87-86) as a 4.5-point underdog, Memphis (90-83) as a 6-point dog, and Denver (110-86) as a 7-point dog. The Hornets will not be intimidated by the Heat tonight.

The home team has won each of the last six meetings dating back to 2009. In fact, New Orleans is 6-0 SU in its last 6 home meetings with Miami dating back to 2006. The Heat are 3-13-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in New Orleans. Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight. That's why I look for them to roll to a blowout win over the Houston Rockets at home Friday.

Memphis is coming off two straight losses and three in its last four games overall. This is a team that is fighting to get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and it cannot afford to keep slipping in the standings. I look for it to put its foot down tonight.

The Grizzlies will also be hungry for revenge from one of their worst losses of the season. Memphis lost at Houston 96-121 in their last meeting this season on December 22nd.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings dating back to 2010. Memphis is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home meetings with Houston with all four victories coming by 5 points or more.

The Grizzlies are 28-8 at home this season, while the Rockets are just 14-21 on the road. Memphis is 24-6 ATS after having lost 3 of its last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Better yet, the Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. They are coming back to win in this spot by an average of 9.4 points/game. Take the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Timberwolves OVER 201.5

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. It even opened at 203.5 and has been bet down to 201.5. It's time to jump on the OVER tonight folks.

Oklahoma City averages 106.2 points/game on the season and I fully expect it to take care of the majority of this OVER on its own. It did just that the last time these teams met up on February 22nd with a 127-111 home victory over Minnesota for 238 combined points. In fact, the Thunder & Timberwolves have combined for 204 or more points in 11 of their last 13 meetings overall.

Minnesota has finally gotten almost all the way healthy, which has really helped its offensive productions of late. The Timberwolves are averaging 109.0 points/game in their last four games overall. They are coming off a 117-120 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Timberwolves are 8-1 to the OVER after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season. Minnesota is 29-12 to the OVER vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Celtics UNDER 195

This total has been inflated tonight due to the recent meetings between the Hawks and Celtics. They have played three times already this season with the total being set at 187, 185 and 188.5 respectively. As you can see, we are getting a ton of value with this 195 number tonight.

Boston won at Atlanta 89-81 for 170 combined points in their first meeting of the season on January 5th. Atlanta beat Boston 123-111 (2 OT) in their second meeting on January 25th in a game that was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation. Boston then beat Atlanta 107-102 (OT) in their most recent meeting on March 8th in a game that was tied 94-94 at the end of regulation.

These last two overtimes have clearly forced the oddsmakers to inflate this total tonight in their 4th and final meeting. These teams are very familiar with each other having played three times in the past couple months, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

Boston has lost five of its last six heading into this one. It tends to buckle down defensively when it's on tough stretch like this one. That's evident by the fact that the Celtics are 7-0 to the UNDER after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season. They are combining with their opponents to average with their opponents to average 174.9 points/game in this spot. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -3

The Dallas Mavericks have quietly gotten themselves in position to make one final run at the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have won three in a row, including Tuesday's victory over the Los Angeles Clippers, to get to within 1.5 games of the Los Angeles Lakers for 8th.

In fact, this team has been undervalued for a couple months now. That's evidenced by the fact that the Mavericks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games overall. This team clearly doesn't get the respect it deserves as it is playing as well as many of the top teams in the league right now.

Indiana comes in fatigued as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. That's a tough spot, especially considering it had to play the Houston Rockets last night, who play at a faster tempo than any other team in the league. The Pacers are in a letdown spot after their big win over the Rockets, and they're going to run out of gas tonight.

The Pacers are just an average team away from home this season, where they are 16-19 on the year. Dallas is a solid 21-14 at home this season. The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this series. The Pacers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Dallas is 82-52 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 24-7 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 37-54 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Take the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Nets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -2.5

It's now or never for the Portland Trail Blazers. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They believe they still have a shot, which is huge.

Portland checks in well-rested and ready to go having last played on Sunday in a loss at Oklahoma City. It has won the previous two games impressively with road victories at Chicago (99-89) as a 6-point dog and at Atlanta (104-93) as a 7.5-point dog.

Brooklyn comes in overvalued due to having won three of its last four games with all four of them coming on the road. However, all three of those victories came against current non-playoff teams in Detroit, Phoenix and Dallas. They'll start feeling the effects of this long road trip in Portland tonight.

The Nets are 5-15 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Brooklyn is 3-12 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 9.4 points/game.

Portland is 4-0 SU in its last 4 home meetings with Brooklyn with wins by 13, 7, 10 and 9 points dating back to 2009, respectively. The Blazers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Portland is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +9

The Sacramento Kings are simply catching too many points tonight to the Golden State Warriors. Golden State is in a huge letdown spot following its 109-103 home victory over the rival Los Angeles Lakers Monday night.

Sacramento comes in well-rested having last played on Sunday in a home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. Given its tightly-contested recent history with Golden State, it's easy to see that 9 points is too much tonight.

In fact, each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 4 points or less, and by a combined 13 points. Three of those meetings have happened this season with Sacramento winning 94-92 and 131-127 at home, and Golden State winning most recently 87-83 at home as a 10.5-point favorite on March 6th.

This play falls into a system that is 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. Take the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -11.5

I look for the Utah Jazz to make easy work of the Phoenix Suns tonight. Utah simply needs this one more as it trails the Los Angeles Lakers by just one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. It won't be lacking any motivation tonight because of it.

Phoenix has nothing to play for, and it has already shown signs of packing it in over the past few weeks. The Suns have lost nine of their last 11 games overall with seven of those nine losses coming by 13 points or more.

Utah picked up a 107-91 home victory over Philadelphia on Monday to put to end a 4-game losing streak that came against playoff contenders in New York, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas with three of those games coming on the road. This team is certainly battle-tested after that tough stretch.

The Jazz have one their last two home meetings with the Suns by 13 and 12 points with finals of 94-81 and 100-88. Utah is 25-9 at home this season, while Phoenix is just 7-28 on the road, losing by nearly 10 points/game.

The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Phoenix is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 24-3 system backing Utah. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They lead both Utah and Dallas by just one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They realize they cannot afford a loss to Minnesota tonight.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Lakers is the fact that they have lost three straight games heading into this one. They couldn't possibly be playing a better opponent to get back on track tonight considering how they have dominated Minnesota over the year.

Los Angeles has won 21 straight meetings with Minnesota heading into this contest. 19 of those 21 victories have come by 5 points or more, making for a 19-2 (90%) system backing the Lakers dating back to 2007.

Also note that the Timberwolves will be a tired team heading into this one. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is tough for a team that is already short-handed due to injury. Take the Lakers Wednesday.

15* Heat/Bulls ESPN Side & Total Parlay on Chicago +5/UNDER 186

I am siding with the Chicago Bulls +5 and the UNDER 186 tonight in this contest with the Miami Heat. I fully expect the Bulls to put an end to Miami's 27-game winning streak in a low-scoring, defensive battle, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

The reason I'm backing Chicago tonight is because it has proven it can beat Miami recently, and it is one of the most resilient teams in the league. The Bulls have won three of their last five meetings with the Heat.

The reason I'm backing the UNDER tonight is due to the recent history between these teams, which has been a very low-scoring one. They have combined for 153, 185, 155 and 168 points (not counting overtime) in each of their last four meetings for an average of 165.3 points/game. That's roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total. Roll with the Bulls and the UNDER Wednesday.

15* Heat/Bulls ESPN Side & Total Parlay on Chicago +5/UNDER 186

I am siding with the Chicago Bulls +5 and the UNDER 186 tonight in this contest with the Miami Heat. I fully expect the Bulls to put an end to Miami's 27-game winning streak in a low-scoring, defensive battle, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

The reason I'm backing Chicago tonight is because it has proven it can beat Miami recently, and it is one of the most resilient teams in the league. The Bulls have won three of their last five meetings with the Heat.

The reason I'm backing the UNDER tonight is due to the recent history between these teams, which has been a very low-scoring one. They have combined for 153, 185, 155 and 168 points (not counting overtime) in each of their last four meetings for an average of 165.3 points/game. That's roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total. Roll with the Bulls and the UNDER Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Cavaliers UNDER 195.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. Both teams are missing key players that will help keep the final combined score UNDER the posted total in this one.

Boston will be without Kevin Garnett (14.9 PPG) and Courtney Lee (7.8 PPG) tonight. They were already without Rondo and Jared Sullinger to boot. Cleveland will be without its top two scorers in Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG) and Dion Waiters (14.7 PPG). Third-leading scorer Anderson Varejao (14.1 PPG) was already out.

One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Each of the last five meetings have seen 194 or less combined points and an average of 181.2 points/game. That's roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Mavs TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Dallas Money Line -109

The Dallas Mavericks are quietly sneaking up on that 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They trail the Los Angeles Lakers by just 1.5 games thanks to a nice run in which they have won eight of their last 11 games overall.

Dallas has been undervalued for quite some time now due to a slow start to the season. That's evident by the fact that it is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games overall. The Mavs should be laying points to the Clippers tonight.

The Mavs come in highly motivated to make the playoffs, but they also want revenge on Los Angeles. They have lost the first two meeting in this series this season, but both of those came in Los Angeles. Dallas is 24-6 SU in its last 30 home meetings with the Clippers.

The Mavericks are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS loss. Dallas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 vs. Western Conference foes. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7

The Utah Jazz will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Philadelphia 76ers. I look for them to roll to a blowout victory because of it.

The Jazz trail the Los Angeles Lakers by two games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. That means they cannot afford to take nights off, which isn't the case for Philadelphia (27-42).

The 76ers are certainly fatigued right now as this will be their 4th road game in 6 days out on the West Coast. They played the Clippers, Nuggets and Kings before this contest with the Jazz.

Utah comes in undervalued due to its 4-game losing streak. It lost to the Knicks at home before going on the road and falling to Houston, San Antonio and Dallas. All four of those losses came by 7 points or less, and now the schedule finally lightens up as they welcome the 76ers.

The Jazz are 24-9 at home this season, while the 76ers are just 7-25 on the road. Utah is 12-3 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road underdog this season. The Jazz are 13-2 SU & 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home meetings with Philadelphia. The 76ers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 0 days rest.

The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with the 76ers. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Utah. Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +7

The Denver Nuggets are way overvalued tonight as a 7-point road favorite over the New Orleans Hornets. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their franchise-record 15-game winning streak.

Denver has showed signs of being way overvalued in its last two games. It beat Philadelphia 101-100 at home on Thursday as a 15-point favorite, and topped Sacramento 101-95 at home on Saturday as an 11.5-point favorite.

The Nuggets are just 17-19 on the road this season, so they have no business even being favored in this one. That's especially the case considering New Orleans has been giant killers of late.

The Hornets have won their last two games with an 87-86 home victory over Boston as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday, and a 90-83 home victory over Memphis as a 6-point underdog on Friday. They have had two days' rest since that win over the Grizzlies, so they'll be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* Heat/Magic ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Orlando +13

The Miami Heat are way overvalued due to their 26-game winning streak. They have failed to cover in three of their last four games overall with the only exception being a 109-77 home victory over the league-worst Charlotte Bobcats last night.

That means Miami will be a tired team heading into this contest with the Magic. In fact, it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days. Orlando comes in on two days' rest having last played on Friday in an 89-97 home loss to Oklahoma City as a 14-point underdog.

The Heat don't give the Magic the kind of respect they deserve. That's evident considering both meetings this season were decided by a combined 3 points. That includes a 97-96 home victory for Miami on March 6th as a 15-point favorite, and a 112-110 road victory for the Heat on December 31st as a 9.5-point favorite.

In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series dating back to 2010 have been decided by 13 points. That 13-point victory was by Orlando at home in 2012. Miami's biggest margin of victory over the Magic during this span has been 12 points.

Miami hasn't won in Orlando by more than 10 points since a 105-90 road victory way back in 2004. That's a span of 17 meetings, making for a perfect 17-0 system since 2004 backing the Magic. Take Orlando Monday.

15* Spurs/Rockets NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Houston Money Line +105

The Houston Rockets should not be an underdog at home tonight to the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are clearly overvalued here due to the return of Tony Parker to the lineup. I'll take advantage and back the home underdog Rockets.

Houston is 24-10 SU & 21-13 ATS in all home games this season. It is scoring a whopping 110.1 points/game at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.7 points/game.

The Rockets want revenge from three earlier losses to San Antonio this season. Two of those losses came by single digits, and all three were back in December. This team has improved by leaps and bounds since then, and it will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep tonight.

Houston is an incredible 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. These three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing Houston. Roll with the Rockets Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +11.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday night. This team goes under the radar as nobody is giving it a shot to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.

Only the Blazers are giving themselves a shot. They only trail the Los Angeles Lakers by 2.5 games for the 8th and final spot in the West. This team is rising up to the occasion as it's coming off two of its biggest victories of the season.

Portland won 99-89 at Chicago as a 6-point underdog on March 21st, and 104-93 at Atlanta as a 7.5-point dog the next night on March 22nd. Those performances just show how the Blazers have taken their game to the next level, and that they are going to fight until the end to get in the playoffs.

Oklahoma City has proven to be overvalued here of late. It is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games overall with a 104-114 home loss to Denver, an 89-90 road loss to Memphis, and a 97-89 road win at Orlando.

Portland wants revenge from five straight losses to Oklahoma City, including two this season. It lost 87-83 at home to the Thunder on January 13th, and 92-106 on the road on November 2nd. There's no question that the Blazers will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Blazers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. These four trends combine for a 16-1 system backing Portland. Take the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing great value as only a 2.5-point home favorite over the Atlanta Hawks Sunday. The Bucks come in highly motivated for a victory for a couple of different reasons.

First, Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back road losses to Atlanta and Indiana heading into this one. That means it will be out for revenge from a 90-98 loss at Atlanta on March 20th less than a week ago. In fact, it has lost both meetings with the Hawks this season, so it will be playing with double revenge.

This play falls into a system that is 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against underdogs (ATLANTA) - off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.

Milwaukee is expected to get Ersan Ilyasova (back), one of the most underrated players in the league, back from injury today. He has missed the past three games, and his return will give the team a big boost at home today.

The Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet Milwaukee Sunday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls represent my strongest release of the entire 2012-13 season in the Eastern Conference Saturday night. I look for the Bulls to blow the Indiana Pacers out of the building tonight folks.

Chicago comes in highly motivated to bounce back from back-to-back losses to Denver and Portland. In fact, it has lost four of its last five games overall. This is one of the most resilient teams in the league under head coach Tom Thibodeau.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Bulls is the fact that they have lost all three meetings with Indiana this season. There's no question they'll be fired up for revenge to avoid the season sweep, while the Pacers will have a hard time getting motivated after beating Chicago three times already this year.

While Indiana will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days, Chicago comes in on one days' rest and playing just its 3rd game in 8 days. I'll gladly side with the more motivated, more rested Bulls in this one folks.

This play falls into a system that is 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival.

Thibodeau is 46-28 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 31-12 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet Chicago Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats Money Line -108

The Charlotte Bobcats are motivated to go for their second 3-game winning streak of the season tonight. I like their chances of getting it against a Detroit Pistons team that appears to have already quit on their season.

Charlotte is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home games with wins over Boston (100-74) as a 10.5-point underdog, Washington (119-114) as a 6.5-point dog, and Toronto (107-101) as a 6.5-point dog. It's nice to see that the Bobcats have clearly not quit on their season.

Detroit has been in a free fall since trading away Tayshaun Prince to Memphis. It has lost 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 games overall while going a woeful 4-10 ATS in the process. Injuries to Andre Drummond and Brandon Knight have derailed the Pistons' season as well.

The Pistons will have a very hard time getting motivated to face the Bobcats tonight. That's because they just played in Miami last night and really gave the Heat a run for their money as they led at halftime. They kept it close in the 3rd before getting blown out in the 4th, falling 89-103. I look for Detroit to come out very flat tonight after such a crushing loss to the defending champs.

Detroit is 8-27 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by a whopping 9.2 points/game away from home this year. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Take the Bobcats Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They are coming off arguably their biggest victory of the season with a 90-89 (OT) home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on a last-second tip-in by Marc Gasol.

Off such a big win, the Grizzlies will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team with a losing record like the New Orleans Hornets Friday. Memphis will also be very tired as this will be its 7th game in 11 days, and it's coming off an OT game.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams. New Orleans has played Memphis tough as all three meetings were decided by 11 points or less. In fact, the Hornets went on the road and beat the Grizzlies 91-83 on January 27th as a 7.5-point underdog.

This play falls into a system that is 35-6 (85.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -12.5

I look for the Houston Rockets to roll to victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home tonight. In fact, I fully expect the Rockets to be covering this spread by the end of the 1st quarter and to never look back folks.

Cleveland is in a huge letdown spot here. It had a chance to pull off the upset of the season and to put an end to Miami's 23-game winning streak on Thursday, but it blew a 27-point lead and lost 98-95. It will have a hard time recovering from such a tough defeat.

Houston won't have a hard time at all getting up for Cleveland knowing that it just about beat Miami the other night. Plus, the Rockets are fighting for their playoff lives and for playoff positioning, so they cannot afford to take nights off.

The Rockets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with Cleveland dating back to 2005. Six of those wins came by double-digits, and five of them came by 15 points or more. Take Houston Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +15.5

The Miami Heat are once again overvalued due to their 24-game winning streak. That has been the case for the last half of this streak as they are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to.

Miami has had a way of playing to its competition during this streak. It has narrow home victories over Sacramento (double OT) and Orlando (97-96), as well as a fortunate road win over Cleveland (98-95) here recently.

The Heat had to come back from 27 points down to beat the Cavaliers on Thursday. They have came way back a few times during this streak, and now it's installed in their minds that they can come back from any deficit. That mentality allows them to be lazy for 3/4 of the game and try the other 1/4.

Detroit comes in undervalued due to its 9-game losing streak, which includes an embarrassing 82-119 loss to Brooklyn last time on out March 18th. The Pistons have had three days off since that defeat, and they'll come back not only motivated to bounce back from it, but to put an end to the Heat's winning streak.

This play falls into a system that is 68-28 (70.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (DETROIT) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

The Pistons are 31-15 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 41-23 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Pistons are 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Miami is 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the Heat. Roll with Miami Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +8.5

The Golden State Warriors are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight. The Warriors are back on track and playing great basketball right now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win this one outright.

Golden State has won four of its last five games overall, which includes a blowout home victory over New York (92-63), and back-to-back blowout road wins over Houston (108-78) and New Orleans (93-72). Yet, this team continues to get disrespected by oddsmakers.

San Antonio simply isn't the same team without Tony Parker. That's evident by the fact that it is just 1-4 ATS in its last four games overall, which includes a 106-136 home loss to Portland, and an ugly 83-107 road loss to Minnesota. Its 92-91 home win over Dallas as a 9.5-point favorite and its 119-113 home victory over Cleveland as a 15-point favorite weren't impressive, either.

This has been a very closely contested series of late with each of the last three meetings being decided by 7 points or less. That includes a 95-88 home victory by San Antonio on January 18th in their first meeting this season, and a 107-101 home win by Golden State on February 22nd in their second meeting of the year.

Golden State is 50-32 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Warriors are 15-4 ATS in road games after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. Take Golden State Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Hornets +5

The New Orleans Hornets should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Boston Celtics. Boston is in a terrible state of mind after letting a double-digit lead slip away Monday against Miami, eventually losing 103-105. It will certainly suffer a hangover from that defeat tonight.

New Orleans comes in hungry for a victory after losing each of its last four games heading into this one. Three of those losses came on the road. I like its chances of bouncing back against a Boston team that is just 12-20 SU & 12-18-2 ATS in all road games this year.

The Hornets simply have the Celtics' number in this series. In fact, New Orleans is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Boston despite being an underdog in all five contests. That includes a 97-78 victory in their most recent home meeting, and a 90-78 road victory in their first meeting this season on January 16th.

This play falls into a system that is 77-37 (67.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against any team (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a close home loss by 3 points or less.

This play falls into another system that is 34-6 (85%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high in this Western Conference rivalry between Oklahoma City and Memphis. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between these familiar foes who have some recent playoff history between them. Points will be hard to come by tonight.

Memphis was a low-scoring, defensive-minded team before trading away Rudy Gay. Since the trade, that has been the case even more as they lost their best scorer. It is scoring 93.5 points/game and allowing 89.2 points/game overall, including 93.0 and 86.8 at home.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Memphis' last four games overall with a 96-85 road win over the Clippers, an 80-87 loss at Denver, an 84-90 setback at Utah, and a 92-77 home victory over Minnesota. Those are four good offensive teams, and they combined with the Grizzlies to score 181, 167, 174 and 169 points, or an average of 172.8 points/game.

Playing at home, I look for Memphis to control the tempo and make this an ugly, half-court game. I don't believe the Thunder will be able to run at all like they normally like to. That's because they are a tired team right now. Oklahoma City will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 9th game in 14 days after losing to Denver last night.

This play falls into a system that is 29-9 (76.3%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 90 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.

This play falls into another system that is 92-42 (68.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in March games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nets/Mavs NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas -4

The Dallas Mavericks have been in must-win mode for quite some time now. They continue to be considering they are 32-35 on the season, which has them just three games back of the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Dallas has been playing its best basketball of the season for a few months now while continuing to be undervalued due to its losing record. That's evident by the fact that the Mavs are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Once again, they are undervalued as only a 4-point favorite over the Nets tonight.

Dallas has won six of its last eight games overall. Its only losses during this stretch came 91-92 at San Antonio as a 9.5-point underdog, and 101-107 vs. Oklahoma City as a 5-point dog. Those are the two best teams in the Western Conference, and the Mavs lost to both by a combined 7 points.

The Mavs beat the Nets 98-90 on the road on March 1st in their first meeting this season. Brooklyn is just 4-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. The Nets are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.

Dallas is 11-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season this season. The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games. These two trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Dallas. Take the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are out for revenge from a 78-92 loss at Toronto on March 15th, which was less than a week ago. The Bobcats will want payback, while the Raptors will have a hard time getting motivated to beat a team they just throttled just a few days back.

I really like Charlotte's chances of getting revenge considering how well it has played at home here of late. In fact, it has won its last two home games with a 100-74 victory over Boston as a 10.5-point underdog, and a 119-114 triumph over Washington as a 6.5-point dog.

Toronto has no business being favored on the road against anyone, especially with the way it is playing of late. It has lost eight of its last 11 games overall with its only victories coming against Phoenix, Cleveland and Charlotte during this span. The Raptors are only 9-24 on the road this year.

Toronto is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Bobcats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Raptors. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings in this series. Charlotte is 4-0 SU & in its last 4 home meetings with Toronto dating back to 2010. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Orlando Magic +11

I'm siding with the Orlando Magic tonight as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. Orlando is underrated due to its 18-49 record on the season, and that has been evident over the past few weeks as it has gone 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall.

Those five covers include a win at New Orleans (105-102) as a 9-point dog, a home win over Philadelphia (99-91) as a 1-point dog, a 96-97 (OT) loss at Miami as a 15.5-point dog, a 104-117 loss at Oklahoma City as a 17.5-point dog, and a 109-115 loss at Milwaukee as a 9-point dog.

As you can see, the Magic have been very competitive against some of the top teams in the league. They did lost 86-115 at home to Indiana on March 8th less than two weeks ago during this stretch. However, that places the them in revenge mode tonight wanting payback for such an embarrassing defeat.

Indiana is in a very tough spot tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days after winning at Cleveland last night, which followed up losses to the Lakers and 76ers. The Pacers will also have a hard time getting motivated to beat a Magic team that they just throttled on March 9th.

Making matters worse for the Pacers is the fact that David West (back) missed last night's game and he's unlikely to return tonight against Orlando. So there's a good chance they'll be short-handed, which doesn't bode well for the fatigue they'll be feeling from playing 4 days in 5 days. West is their second-leading scorer (17.3 PPG) and rebounder (7.7 RPG).

This play falls into a system that is 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - good defensive team - allowing <=91 points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.

The Magic are 20-11 ATS as an underdog this season. Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These six trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing Orlando. Roll with the Magic Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -10

The Utah Jazz will blow the New York Knicks out of the building tonight for several reasons. The first of which is the fact that the Knicks are very short-handed right now, playing without Amare Stoudemire (out), Tyson Chandler (doubtful) and Carmelo Anthony (doubtful). There is a slight chance that Anthony plays tonight, but even if he does I have no doubt the Jazz will cover.

Making matters worse for the Knicks is the fact that they'll be running on fumes tonight. This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 6 days for New York. Being short-handed makes handling this situation even tougher. Meanwhile, Utah will have a lot of energy to bring to the court considering this will only be its 2nd game in 5 days.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series considering the home team has won 12 of the last 13 meetings. Utah has serious revenge in mind as it will be looking for payback from an 84-113 loss at New York on March 9th just over a week ago. I like its chances of getting revenge in blowout fashion considering it is 24-8 SU & 20-12 ATS at home this year.

The Knicks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. New York is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. New York is playing its worst basketball of the season due to these injuries, losing its last four games by 29, 23, 15 and 13 points. Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns +2.5

The Phoenix Suns should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Los Angeles Lakers. In fact, I fully expect the Suns to blow the Lakers out of the building in this one. Los Angeles is way overvalued due to winning its last two games despite having Kobe Bryant play just 12 minutes in the Indiana victory. He sat out last night's 113-102 home win over Sacramento.

Teams tend to actually play well without their superstar for a few games, but over time they certainly miss him. I look for that to be the case tonight as the Lakers simply do not have enough talent without Kobe to warrant being favored at Phoenix. That's especially the case considering how tired it is.

The Lakers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. That is the toughest possible situation in the NBA, and that's what they're up against tonight. They'll be up against a Phoenix team that absolutely hates them and always seems to play them tough.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the last few years. In fact, the home team has won each of the last eight meetings dating back to 2011. Phoenix is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last 3 home meetings with Los Angeles despite being an underdog each time. It won by finals of 92-86, 125-105 and 102-90. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

The Lakers are 17-38 ATS in their last 55 games following a S.U. win. Los Angeles is 14-36-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a ATS win. The Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Lakers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5

The Washington Wizards should not be favored on the road by 6.5 points over any team in the league. Not even the Charlotte Bobcats. I'll gladly fade the 23-42 Wizards, who are just 5-25 on the road this season.

Sure, the Bobcats own the worst record in the league, but as a result the betting public is almost completely off of them. That forces oddsmakers to inflate their lines, which should lead to some great betting opportunities the rest of the way.

Charlotte wants revenge from an 87-104 loss at Washington on March 9th just over a week ago. I like its chances of getting it considering the Wizards are extremely tired right now. This will be the 5th game in 7 days for Washington.

This play falls into a system that is 52-23 (69.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread.

Washington is 4-16 ATS in road games after scoring 120 points or more since 1996. The Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bobcats are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Roll with Charlotte Monday.

20* Kings/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued for several reasons heading into this game with the Sacramento Kings. Los Angeles has won 10 of its last 13 games overall for one, and for two it is coming off a 99-93 victory at Indiana in a game where Kobe Bryant played just 12 minutes.

Because of this recent run, and that upset of the Pacers, the Lakers have created expectations for themselves from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to. The books are asking them to win by double-digits against a pesky Sacramento Kings team tonight to beat us, and I'm just not buying it.

Bryant is doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury, and the Lakers clearly aren't as good without him. They can be for one game, but not for two or more. DeMarcus Cousins is questionable for Sacramento, but I like the Kings to cover no matter whether or not he plays. Cousins sat out a 121-79 home victory over Chicago on March 13th last time out, so the Kings have proven they can play without him. That also means that Sacramento comes in on three days' rest having last played on Wednesday.

The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Sacramento is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Los Angeles. The Lakers always have a way of bringing out the best in the Kings, while Los Angeles always has a way of playing down to its competition. The Lakers are 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +7.5

The Golden State Warriors are highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Houston Rockets. In fact, they have lost the first three meetings of the season to Houston, which clearly doesn't sit will with them. At the same time, the Rockets are going to have a hard time getting motivated to beat the Warriors for a 4th time this year.

I'll gladly back the team that's playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. That's especially the case for the Warriors considering all three of their losses to Houston this year have come since February 5th, so in just 1.5 month's time. These losses are fresh in their mind and will be the fuel to the fire that they take to the court tonight.

Golden State is 25-12 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Golden State is coming off a bad home loss to Chicago, so that only has it further motivated tonight. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors +8

The Miami Heat are once again overvalued due to their 21-game winning streak. The Toronto Raptors are fully capable of putting an end to it today, but I'm taking the points for some added insurance.

Miami has created expectations for itself from oddsmakers that is simply cannot live up to with any consistency because of this streak. It has gone 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games overall during this streak. It has to get the opposing team's best shot each time it takes the court, which will wear on a team over time.

Toronto is a solid 17-16 at home this season. It will certainly be out for revenge after losing the first two meetings this season, including a 116-123 (OT) road loss. In fact, the Raptors have now lost 10 straight meetings to the Heat, adding fuel to the fire.

Toronto is 17-6 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Raptors are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games. Roll with the Raptors Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2

I fully expect the Utah Jazz to blow the Memphis Grizzlies out of the building tonight. This is an excellent spot to back the Jazz, who should be a much bigger home favorite tonight over the Grizzlies. Memphis is in an extremely tough spot tonight.

The Grizzlies are coming off an 80-87 loss at Denver last night. That means this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 5 days for Memphis. It certainly showed signs of wearing down last night as it blew a 4th quarter lead.

After losing five of its last six coming into this game, the Jazz will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. All five of those losses came on the road with four coming against current playoff teams. Utah will be the fresher team as it comes in on two days' rest. The Jazz are 23-8 at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (UTAH) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Spurs UNDER 199.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle Saturday as neither team exceeds 100 points in this one.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER in this contest is the fact that each team is going to be without its best player. Cleveland is without leading scorer and assist man Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG, 5.7 APG), while San Antonio is without leading scorer and assist man Tony Parker (21.0 PPG, 7.6 APG).

The fact of the matter is that both offenses struggle without their points guards. Cleveland has been held to 97 or fewer points in six of its last seven games overall, while San Antonio has been limited to 83 and 92 points in its last two games, respectively. And those were against poor defensive teams in the Timberwolves and Mavericks.

San Antonio is 8-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points this season. The UNDER is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games overall. The UNDER is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 12-4 in Spurs last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Bucks +6

I've been fading the Miami Heat with a ton of success during their current 20-game winning streak. The more games they add onto this streak, the higher the expectations are from the betting public and oddsmakers. This has created excellent line value for their opponents.

There's no question that Miami is going to get everyone's best shot because they are the defending champs, and because of this streak. I believe Milwaukee's best shot is good enough to beat the Heat tonight.

In fact, Milwaukee has played Miami very tough this season. The home team has won each meeting with Miami prevailing 113-106 at home on November 21st, and Milwaukee winning 104-85 at home on December 29th. Off two straight losses, the Bucks are more hungry than every for a victory tonight.

The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Heat. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Milwaukee has actually won four of its last six meetings with Miami outright. The Heat are 13-28 ATS in road games after having won 20 or more of their last 25 games since 1996. Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Mavericks UNDER 203.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Dallas Mavericks. Cleveland is without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG) for the next three weeks, and it will have a hard time putting points on the board until he returns.

That has been the case in recent games for the Cavaliers as they've scored 97 or less points in five of their last six games overall. Dallas comes in tired as this will be the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. It will not be pushing the tempo on tired legs tonight.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. Dallas and Cleveland have combined to score 199 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings. That includes a 103-95 road victory by the Mavericks in their lone meeting this season on November 17th.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-2 in Mavericks last 11 vs. NBA Central foes. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Pacers UNDER 190

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers. With Kobe Bryant out for Los Angeles, it is going to be lost offensively tonight. It will have to rely on its defense more to be competitive against the Pacers.

I look for the Lakers to slow the game down to a snail's pace and to run their offense through Dwight Howard to give themselves the best chance to pull off the upset. Getting the ball to Howard takes some time, which will shorten the game considerably.

These teams played in an absolute defensive battle in their first meeting. Indiana won at Los Angeles 79-77 on November 27th for 156 combined points. While I expect more combined points this time around, I do not foresee them coming closer to reaching 190 points.

The Lakers are a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER against Central division opponents this season. They are combining with these Central opponents to average 184.9 points/game this year. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Mavs/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas +8

The San Antonio Spurs are way overvalued as an 8-point home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks tonight. I'll gladly side with the value and back the Mavericks in a game I fully expect them to win outright. I'll only take the points for some added insurance.

San Antonio is clearly having problems without Tony Parker. That's evidence by the fact that it has lost two out of its last three in blowout fashion to non-playoff teams in Portland (106-136) and Minnesota (83-107). Now, both Tim Duncan (knee) and Kawhi Leonard (ankle) are both questionable heading into this contest with the Mavs.

Don't look now, but Dallas is just 2.5 game behind the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. It has won four straight games coming into this contest with the Spurs, including three road victories. Dallas is playing its best basketball of the season right now, but somehow it continues to getting overlooked by oddsmakers and the betting public. It is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games overall.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Mavs is the fact that they have already lost twice to San Antonio this season. In fact, they have lost four straight in this series dating back to last year. There's no question that they want revenge tonight folks and I fully expect them to get it against the hobbled Spurs.

Dallas is 51-26 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Mavericks are 23-7 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Dallas Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -5.5

The Boston Celtics are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight. They are coming off back-to-back embarrassing road losses to Oklahoma City (79-91) and to Charlotte (74-100). I look for the Celtics to put forth one of their best efforts of the season when they host the Toronto Raptors Wednesday.

Paul Pierce did not play against the Bobcats last night as Doc Rivers decided to give him a day off for rest. Pierce will return tonight and will give the team a big lift. Meanwhile, the Raptors are expected to be without their best player in Rudy Gay (back) as he is listed as doubtful with a back injury.

Boston is 22-9 at home this season, while Toronto is just 9-23 on the road. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings with the lone exception being a Boston road victory (99-95) in their most recent meeting on February 6th.

The Celtics have won nine straight home meetings with the Raptors all by 6 points or more. This is a perfect 9-0 system backing Boston which dates back to the 2008 season. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Hawks UNDER 203.5

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Atlanta Hawks are going to be fatigued heading into tonight's game. Each will be playing the second of a back-to-back as the Hawks lost at Miami last night, while the Lakers won at Orlando last night. The tempo will be kept at a snail's pace because of the fatigue.

These teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together as it is. The Lakers and Hawks have combined for 201 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings dating back to 2010. They have combined to average just 183.3 points/game in their last four meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 6-2 in Atlanta's last 8 games overall. Not counting overtime, it has combined with each of its last eight opponents for 203 or fewer points at the end of regulation. The Lakers are playing much better defensive of late, limiting the Bulls to 81 points and the Magic to 97 in their last two contests coming in.

Atlanta is 10-1 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. I'm seeing an average of 186.7 points/game in this spot. The Hawks are 18-4 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. I'm seeing an average of 180.3 points/game in this spot. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +9

The Miami Heat are way overvalued as a 9-point road favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. They have won 19 straight games, which has the betting public all over them. As a result, their numbers are going to be inflated until they lose a game again. That could very easily happen tonight.

This will be the 3rd meeting between these teams since February 23rd, so they are very familiar with one another. Miami won both meetings with a 114-90 road victory on the 23rd, and a 102-93 home win on March 8th. There's no question that the 76ers want revenge, while the Heat will have a hard time getting motivated to beat a team they have beaten twice already within the last month.

Philadelphia is playing much better of late as it beat Brooklyn 106-97 at home on Monday as a 6.5-point underdog. While the 76ers have had a day of rest to get ready for Miami, the Heat will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Hawks last night.

The 76ers are 16-5 ATS after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Philadelphia is 39-23 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the 76ers Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Heat NBA TV No-Brainer on Atlanta +10

The Miami Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 18-game winning streak heading into this game with the Atlanta Hawks. That has been evident in recent games during this streak as they are just 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games overall. They cannot possibly live up to the expectations they have created for themselves in the eyes of the public and thus the oddsmakers.

Off a huge win over Indiana by a final of 105-91 on Sunday, the Heat are in a big letdown spot here. They had lost the previous two meetings this season with Indiana, so they wanted that one pretty badly. They won't be able to give the kind of effort it takes to beat a solid Atlanta team by double-digits tonight.

Meanwhile, the Hawks not only come in motivated to put an end to Miami's winning streak, they also want to bounce back following losses in five of their last six games overall with four coming to playoff contenders. They come in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday, so they'll certainly be ready to go. Plus, Atlanta wants revenge from two earlier losses to Miami this season by finals of 92-101 on December 10th and 90-103 on February 20th after blowing a fourth quarter lead.

Miami is 5-17 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. Atlanta is 15-5 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It is actually coming back to win in this spot 92.9 to 91.4 on average. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Hornets +6.5

This is an excellent spot to fade the Brooklyn Nets who are overvalued due to winning three of their last four games overall. Two of those victories came against the Wizards and Bobcats, while the other was a victory over an Atlanta team that was clearly looking ahead to tonight's game against Miami.

My biggest reason for fading Brooklyn tonight is the fact that it is in the toughest situation it can be in. The Nets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days tonight. They started showing signs of wearing down last night, falling 97-106 at Philadelphia despite coming in as a 6.5-point favorite.

New Orleans is one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. It continues to give max effort every night despite its record, which was evident in a 98-96 home victory over Portland on Sunday. The Hornets want revenge from a 97-101 home loss to Brooklyn on February 26th in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago. I like their chances of getting it considering how tired the Nets will be tonight.

The Hornets are 38-23 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 17-5 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Nets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents. Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Nets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the Hornets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +11

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing awesome value as a double-digit home underdog to the Boston Celtics tonight. Sure, Charlotte has gone 0-10 SU & 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games overall, but as a result the betting public is completely off of them. The books can't set this number high enough to get the public on them.

The Celtics come in overvalued due to going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They are coming off a 79-91 loss at Oklahoma City on Sunday, which puts them in a hangover situation here. Off such a big loss to a great team, they'll have a hard time getting motivated to face the Bobcats tonight.

Charlotte comes in on two days' rest having last played on Saturday, so it will be ready to go tonight. The Bobcats have proven they can play with the Celtics as each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 12 points or less with Charlotte winning three times. That includes a 94-91 home victory on February 11th in their most recent meeting this season. The underdog is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

This play falls into a system that is 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread.

Boston is just 12-19 SU & 12-17-2 ATS in all road games this year. The Celtics are 8-19 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 2-12 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 11-24 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the Bobcats Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Cavaliers UNDER 191

The books have clearly set the bar too high in this contest between the Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in this contest. Cleveland is without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG) for the next 3-4 weeks, and until he returns the Cavs are going to struggle offensively.

Washington has quietly been one of the better defensive teams in the league. It is giving up just 95.1 points/game overall this season, including 90.4 points/game in its last five games. However, the Wizards are scoring a mere 91.7 points/game this season, including a woeful 86.4 points/game on the road.

A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between the Wizards and Cavaliers. In fact, each of the last four meetings have seen 187 or fewer points. They have combined to average 179.3 points/game in their last four meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic +8.5

The Los Angeles Lakers come into this game with the Orlando Magic way overvalued due to their recent run. Los Angeles has won eight of its last ten games overall to get to 33-31 on the season and in the playoffs if the season were to end today. The betting public has flocked to them, providing us with ample value to back the Magic tonight.

Los Angeles has a way of always playing to its competition. Only three of its eight wins during this run have come against teams with winning records. The Lakers had to come from behind to beat both the Hornets and Raptors in two of their last three games. They are just 11-20 SU & 11-20 ATS on the road this season with just five of those wins coming by more than 7 points.

Orlando has gotten healthy here of late and it is playing better basketball because of it. It has won two of its last four games with a 105-102 victory at New Orleans, and a 99-9-1 triumph at home over Philadelphia. It also lost 96-97 at Miami as a 15.5-point underdog after a last-second layup by Lebron James.

This team is fully capable of playing with the Lakers, and it showed that by winning in Los Angeles 113-103 as a 13.5-point dog on December 2nd in their first meeting of the season. In fact, the Magic have now won four of their last five meetings with the Lakers, including three straight home meetings. The underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Los Angeles is 1-12 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this spot by 7.7 points/game on average. The Lakers are 1-9 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season. Los Angeles is 19-41-1 ATS in its last 61 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Lakers are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -3

The Golden State Warriors have certainly been struggling of late. They have lost 12 of their last 17 games overall to fall to 35-29 on the season after a torrid start. However, their recent struggles are the reason I really believe this team is way undervalued right now as only a 3-point home favorite over New York.

Not only will the Warriors be motivated to get back on track, they'll also want payback from a 105-109 loss at New York on February 27th in their first meeting of the season just two weeks ago. I like their chances of getting revenge considering the Knicks have played their last three games without Carmelo Anthony (knee), and he's questionable to return tonight.

Also, Amare Stoudemire (knee) has been pronounced out for the next 4-6 weeks. Golden State is 20-9 at home this season, so it certainly has a solid home-court advantage this year. It won its last home meeting with New York by a final of 92-78.

The Knicks are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Warriors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Golden State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings with New York. Roll with the Warriors Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets/Suns OVER 209.5

I look for an absolute shootout tonight in Phoenix as the Suns host the high-scoring Denver Nuggets. Denver is one of the top scoring teams in the league at 105.8 points/game. However, the Nuggets give up 104.3 points/game defensively, so I look for the Suns to put up a big number as well.

Denver's biggest reason for being so efficient offensively is its ability to get in the paint at will. It is one of the top scoring teams in the league in the paint. That's a big factor here considering the Suns will be playing without two of their best post players in Marcin Gortat and Jermaine O'Neal. The Nuggets have scored 104 or more points in nine straight games.

Phoenix has been forced to play small ball, which hurts its defense, but helps its offense. That was evident in a 107-105 home victory over the Houston Rockets last time out on Saturday, and a 112-121 loss at Sacramento the night before on Friday.

This has already been a high-scoring series in recent meetings, and I look for that to be the case again tonight. Phoenix beat Denver 110-100 at home in their first meeting of the season on November 12th for 210 combined points. Denver beat Phoenix 118-107 on the road in their final meeting of last season for 225 combined points.

Denver is 13-2 to the OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. The Nuggets are 9-1 to the OVER in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 19-7 in Nuggets last 26 games overall. The OVER is 21-8 in Nuggets last 29 road games. Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Thunder/Spurs NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 208.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight as they meet for a third time this season. With Tony Parker out for the Spurs, their offense simply isn't going to be as dynamic as it was before he got hurt.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings. Oklahoma City and San Antonio have combined for 206 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, including 200 and 170 points in their two meetings this season. With the Thunder tired and playing their 4th game in 5 days, and the Spurs without Parker, I look for the final combined score of this one to easily stay under 208 with room to spare.

This play falls into a system that is 42-11 (79.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

San Antonio is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 105 points or more this season. I'm seeing an average of 187.3 points/game in this spot for the Spurs and their opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 9-1 in Spurs last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Heat UNDER 189.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest. This is a huge Eastern Conference showdown between two of the best teams in the conference. I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively, which will keep the final combined score UNDER 190.

Indiana matches up really well with Miami. That's why it has beaten the Heat in both meetings this season, limiting them to 77 and 89 points, respectively. Paul George and Lance Stephenson combine to guard Lebron James and Dwayne Wade as well as another other team in the league, which is why Indiana has shut them down this season.

This play falls into a system that is 70-31 (69.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games.

The UNDER is 18-6 in Heat last 24 Sunday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Pacers last 10 road games. Indiana is 43-26 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Raptors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +7.5

The Toronto Raptors are showing excellent value as a 7.5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their 24-38 record, but arguably not team in the league has suffered as many close losses this season as Toronto.

The Lakers always have a way of playing down to their competition. That was the case again at New Orleans on Wednesday as they had to rally from 25 points down to come back and win 108-102. They closed that game on a 20-0 run to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat. Off such an emotional win, look for the Lakers to suffer a letdown tonight against these Raptors.

Toronto has played Los Angeles very tough in recent meetings. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by 5 points or less, including a 108-103 home victory for Toronto on January 20th in their first meeting this season. Look for this game to go right down to the wire again tonight and to be decided by 7 or less either way. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

The Lakers are 19-40-1 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Los Angeles is 15-36 ATS in its last 51 games following a S.U. win. The Lakers are 2-13 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Portland Trail Blazers +11.5

The San Antonio Spurs come into this game way overvalued due to their dominance in their first two games without star point guard Tony Parker. They beat lowly Detroit 114-75 and a banged up Chicago team 101-83 at home in their last two contests.

Teams can play without stars for a few games, but over time it starts to take its toll. I look for that to be the case tonight as the Spurs are up against a desperate Portland Trail Blazers team that is fighting to stay alive in the Western Conference playoff race at 28-32 on the season.

Portland has played well of late, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall. It has gone 3-3 SU during this span, with all three losses coming by 6 points or less to the Lakers (107-111), Nuggets (109-111) and Grizzlies (85-91), which are three of the best teams in the West.

The Blazers have actually had the Spurs' number in recent years. Portland has won five of the last eight meetings in this series, including a 98-90 home victory as a 7-point underdog in their most recent meeting on December 13th. This team obviously matches up well with San Antonio, and it clearly isn't afraid of the Spurs.

This play falls into a system that is 37-16 (69.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or less. The Blazers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Portland Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5

The Miami Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 16-game winning streak. I faded them with success in a 97-96 home victory over the Orlando Magic as a 15.5-point underdog on Wednesday. I'll gladly fade them again tonight as a double-digit favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers.

When you win so many games in a row it's only human nature to get a little bit lazy and think that it's easy. That's why the Heat nearly got upset by the Magic on Wednesday, and it's why I would not be surprised one bit to see Philadelphia upset them tonight.

The 76ers are in revenge mode following a 90-114 home loss to Miami on February 23rd just two weeks ago. The 76ers were really banged up at that point, but Thaddeus Young, who is arguably their best player, has returned since. Philly will be motivated for revenge and to put an end to their current 3-game skid.

This play falls into a system that is 67-28 (70.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

Philadelphia is 53-30 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996. The 76ers are 14-4 ATS after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Miami is 4-16 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the 76ers Friday.