15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  That has especially been the case of late.  The 76ers are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games, winning by an average of 14.7 points per game. 

Now the 76ers get to host a struggling New Orleans Pelicans team that just lost DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury.  The Pelicans have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their five games since Cousins went down, losing those four games by an average of 13.8 points per game. 

Philadelphia is 14-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The 76ers are 11-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Philadelphia is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The 76ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

20* Clippers/Pistons ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Detroit -3 

The Detroit Pistons have been re-energized since trading for Blake Griffin.  The Pistons have gone 5-0 since trading for him, and he’s averaging 21.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists since joining Detroit. 

When Los Angeles signed Griffin to a five-year, $171 million contract in July, it was understood that he would be a ‘Clipper for Life’.  But Doc Rivers and the front office bailed on him, and you can bet that he is going to want to exact some revenge on his former team here tonight. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - after going over the total by 48 or more total points in their last 10 games, when playing on Friday nights are 38-17 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Pistons are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. Western Conference foes, including 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The home team is 5-1-1- ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 

Off there straight road losses, the Portland Trail Blazers returned home highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Charlotte Hornets.  They played three road games in four days and lost all three.  But now they have had two days off since last playing on Monday and will be fresh and ready to go. 

The Blazers have been dominant at home for over a month now.  The Blazers are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games overall.  Each of their last five home victories have come by 7 points or more.  Look of them to get back on track at home tonight. 

The Hornets are just 8-16 on the road this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The Blazers are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Hornets, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings. 

The Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. Western Conference teams.  Charlotte is 6-15 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Hornets are 12-27 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the past two seasons.  Charlotte is 1-14 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

20* T’Wolves/Cavs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are completely broken.  They are now just 7-14 SU & 3-18 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  They are coming off a 98-116 loss at lowly Orlando last night, so now they’ll be playing the second of a back-to-back. 

It’s not like the Cavs have even been competitive in some of these losses.  In fact, each of their last six losses have come by double-digits.  And now without Kevin Love for 6-8 weeks due to a broken hand, it’s not going to get better any time soon for the Cavaliers.  Lebron James is at a loss for words every night, and this team just isn’t together at all. 

Conversely, Minnesota is living up to the massive expectations they had coming into the season with the additions of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague.  They are fully healthy right now and have put together a 34-22 record on the season.  And the Timberwolves come in fresh and ready to go as they last played on Saturday, giving them three full days off to prepare for Cleveland. 

Minnesota beat Cleveland 127-99 at home in their first meeting this season on January 8th.  Cleveland is 1-10 ATS off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more over the past three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Cleveland is 5-24 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2 

I love this spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They are coming off a bad loss to the Atlanta Hawks in which they blew a 5-point lead late.  That has them undervalued coming into this game tonight, while the Bucks are overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games overall. 

It’s also a revenge spot for the Knicks.  They just lost 90-92 in Milwaukee a few days ago on Friday, and now they get a chance for revenge at home this time around.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bucks. 

Milwaukee is dealing with all kinds of injuries right now.  Malcolm Brogdon remains out with a knee injury, Mathew Dellavedove is out tonight with an ankle injury, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to play tonight despite leaving their last game with a foot injury.  He’ll be far from 100% for this one. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New York) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent that scored 105 points or more in their previous game are 55-27 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  The Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days’ rest.  Take the Knicks Tuesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5 

The Toronto Raptors will be looking to make a statement tonight.  They are in second place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Boston Celtics by 2 games for the top spot.  Now they get to host the Celtics and will be highly motivated for a victory because of it. 

The Celtics have managed to go 3-0 without Kyrie Irving.  But all three of those wins came at home, and they were against the Knicks, Hawks and Blazers.  They needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Blazers.  Irving is still questionable to return tonight.  And they are still without Marcus Smart, and Marcus Morris is questionable tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Raptors are fully healthy and dominating.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall with three of those victories coming by 12 points or more.  Toronto is a sensational 21-4 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.4 points per game on average. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Toronto is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Boston, winning all four by 6 points or more.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2.5 

The Detroit Pistons are re-engergized with the trade for Blake Griffin.  They are 3-0 since trading for him and at 25-26, can get back to .500 with a win tonight.  Look for them to keep rolling at home tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers. 

The Blazers will be lacking energy tonight.  That’s because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  And they’re likely to suffer a hangover from their buzzer-beating 96-97 loss at Boston yesterday. 

The Pistons have certainly had the Blazers’ number, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They have won their last two home meetings with the Blazers by 7 and 20 points.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Detroit. 

Portland is 1-9 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 6-18 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Detroit is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 home games with a total set of 210 to 219.5.  The Pistons are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Pistons Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -5 

The New York Knicks are showing great value as only 5-point home favorites over the Atlanta Hawks today.  The Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory today after back-to-back road losses at Boston and Milwaukee coming in. 

But now the Knicks return home, where they are 16-9 SU & 16-9 ATS on the season.  The Hawks own the worst road record in the NBA this season at 4-21.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Knicks have to be more than 5-point favorites here. 

The Knicks are 12-3 ATS in home games off two more more consecutive unders over the past two seasons.  The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/Clippers UNDER 222 

There are several reasons to like the UNDER today in this game between the Bulls and Clippers.  For starters, it’s a rare early Saturday start time, so I expect both teams to be sleep-walking through it at a slow tempo.  But player injuries/trades is the biggest reason to like the UNDER. 

Chicago just traded away Nikola Mirotic, its leading scorer to the Pelicans. Its new leading scorer is now Lauri Markannen (15.3 ppg), who is now out for personal reasons today.  And third-leading scorer Kris Dunn (13.7 ppg, 6.4 apg) remains out with a concussion.  It’s safe to say that the Bulls’ offense will be extremely limited today without this trio. 

For the Clippers, they traded away Blake Griffin to the Pistons this week and got back Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley and some draft picks in return.  Losing Griffin will hurt their offense, but they do get one of the best defensive guards in the league in Bradley to improve their defense.  Both Harris and Bradley will be making their debuts for the Clippers today, and I expect them to be lost offensively, which would only be natural. 

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  In fact, the Bulls and Clippers have combined for 215 or fewer points in each of their last 16 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 16-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today’s huge total of 222 points.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +5.5 

The Utah Jazz are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 129-99 win over the Golden State Warriors, handing the defending champs their worst loss of the season.  It’s only human nature for them to let down now off such a big win. 

The Suns won their lone meeting with the Jazz this season 97-88 at home as 7.5-point underdogs.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 9-3 SU & 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Suns are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. 

The Jazz are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Utah is 7-19 SU & 11-15 ATS in all road games this season.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - off an upset win as an underdog, on Friday nights are 63-30 (67.7%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Suns Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Thunder UNDER 223 

This total has gotten out of hand tonight.  It has been bet all the way up to 223, and I look for it to finish well below the number tonight.  There are several reasons the UNDER is a great bet tonight. 

For starters, Oklahoma City is running on fumes tonight.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They just had to play in the altitude in Denver last night, so they will be tired.  They won’t be looking to push the tempo at all in this one. 

For the Pelicans, they just lost DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury.  He was in the midst of an MVP-caliber season.  The Pelicans won’t be nearly as efficient offensively without him.  That has shown in the last two games without Cousins as they were held to 103 points against the Clippers and 103 against the Kings. 

Oklahoma City is 20-6 UNDER off a division game over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 66-40 UNDER in all road games over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Pelicans are nine road games.  The UNDER is 15-4 in Thunder last 19 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (New Orleans) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 33-12 (73.3%) over the last five seasons.  This same system applies to Oklahoma City as well.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3 

I love the situation for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 105-96 road loss to Indiana on January 29th just a few days ago.  Now they get the Pacers at home this time around.  The Pacers shot 54.2% in that game while the Hornets shot 44.6%.  I think that will be reversed tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings.  In fact, the home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hornets have won their last three home meetings with the Pacers by 12, 22 and 7 points, respectively. 

The Hornets are 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Charlotte is 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings with Indiana.  The Hornets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Friday games.  The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games.  Bet the Hornets Friday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 214 

With John Wall out for the Washington Wizards, I think this total has been set too high tonight.  The Wizards are a completely different offense without him.  They get a ton of easy buckets in transition because of his speed when he’s in there, but now they have to become a much more methodical team without him. 

And the Wizards and Raptors have already played in two low-scoring games in their first two meetings this year when Wall was healthy.  They combined for 203 points in their first meeting on November 5th and 191 points in their 2nd meeting on November 19th.  Now the books have set this total at 214, showing we have a ton of value on the UNDER based on the first two meetings. 

Toronto is 16-4 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Washington is 15-6 UNDER off an ATS win this season.  Toronto is 15-5 UNDER versus good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Backup PG Fred VanVleet is out for Toronto, and sharpshooter CJ Miles is questionable as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on New York +8.5 

This is a great spot to fade the Boston Celtics.  They are coming off a four-game road trip and this will be their first game back home.  I always like fading teams following an extended road trip in their first game back home because of all the off-court distractions they have to deal with when they get back. 

The Celtics aren’t playing well at all right now as it is.  They are 2-5 in their last seven games overall, going through their worst stretch of the season.  Marcus Smart has shown his value to this team because they have not played well without him, and he remains out tonight.  The Celtics cannot be laying 8.5 points to the Knicks with the way they are playing right now. 

The Knicks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after a 111-95 home win over Brooklyn last night.  But that effect is negated because the Knicks had three days off prior to that game.  So they’ll still be fresh and ready to go despite the back-to-back situation. 

New York is 12-3 ATS after having won two of its last three games this season.  The Knicks are 18-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 70% over the last three years.  The Celtics are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

Note: I put this pick in when the line was +8.5.  It has since dropped to +6 as of this writing due to Kyrie Irving being ruled out.  I think it's certainly still worth a bet at +6 because Irving is worth more than 2.5 points to this team, especially with Marcus Smart already out and the Celtics lacking talent at the guard positions outside of those two.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are showing great value as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They have been a great bet all season with a 30-20-1 ATS record in their 51 games thus far as they have consistently been undervalued. 

I think oddsmakers are putting too much stock in the fact that the Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  But they had two days off prior to to their game against the Knicks last night, and it’s a short trip to Brooklyn from New York.  And the Nets are one of the deeper teams in the NBA so they aren’t affected as much by back-to-backs as most teams. 

The 76ers are in the midst of a four-game road trip that concludes here tonight.  They have lost their last two games by double-digits by 10 at Oklahoma City and by 12 at Milwaukee.  I just don’t think they should be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight as 7.5-point road favorites at Brooklyn. 

Brooklyn is 16-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Nets are 19-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

20* Blazers/Clippers TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers have been playing their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks.  They are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Now they have had three days off having last played on Friday and will be fresh and ready to go tonight against the Clippers.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest. 

The Clippers are going through some turmoil right now and cannot be trusted.  They just traded away franchise player Blake Griffin to Detroit yesterday.  They got back Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris in return, but both are doubtful to play tonight.  That leaves the Clippers extremely short-handed for this game against Portland. 

The Blazers have actually played some of their best basketball on the road this season, going 13-12 SU & 14-9-2 ATS.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Portland is 8-2-3 ATS in its last 13 games following a straight up win by more than 10 points. 

Plays against home teams (LA Clippers) - after four straight games where both teams score 100 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more in five straight games are 42-18 (70%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-0 since Jason Kidd was fired.  They have returned with a new focus and realize they weren’t playing hard enough or well enough for Kidd.  Their last two games have resulted in a 25-point home win over Brooklyn and a 14-point road win at Chicago. 

Now the Bucks will be out for revenge from a 94-116 road loss at Philadelphia on January 20th just over a week ago.  It’s certainly worth noting that the Bucks were short-handed in that game, playing without both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Malcolm Brogdon.  Anteteokounmpo is back healthy and playing at an MVP level, while Brogdon could make his return tonight. 

This is a tough spot for the 76ers, who will be playing their third straight road game, the second of a back-to-back, and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I don’t know that they’ll have much left in the tank after facing the Spurs and Thunder on the road the past two games, and now making this trip to Milwaukee to play for a second consecutive day. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - a good shooting team making 48% or better on the season, after two straight games making 9 or more 3-point shots are 145-80 (64.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Bucks are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  The 76ers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  Take the Bucks Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3 

The Indiana Pacers have been one of the most underrated teams all season.  They have played without star center Myles Turner for much of the campaign, but he is healthy now and the Pacers will be dangerous moving forward. 

The Charlotte Hornets have been as inconsistent as they come.  They are just 20-28 SU & 19-25-4 ATS on the season.  They are 6-14 SU & 7-10-1 ATS on the road.  They are getting way too much respect from the books as only 3-point road underdogs to the Pacers tonight. 

Indiana is 19-5 straight up in its last 24 home meetings with Charlotte.  The Pacers have won their last two home meetings with the Hornets by 21 and 16 points, respectively.  The home team has won five straight meetings in this series overall. 

The Pacers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.  Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Charlotte is 4-9-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pacers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2 

The Chicago Bulls come in highly motivated for a victory following three consecutive losses, including two by 5 points or fewer.  Look for them to get back on track with an ‘upset’ home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks today. 

The Bulls are an impressive 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  They have been undervalued for a couple months now.  Chicago is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. 

The Bulls have owned the Bucks, going 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Milwaukee this season, actually winning each of their first two meetings on the road 115-109 as 8.5-point dogs and 115-106 as 7.5-point dogs.  Now there’s no way they should be underdogs at home. 

The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Bulls are 17-6 ATS off a home game this season.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that get out rebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  The Bucks are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .600.  Milwaukee is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 Sunday games.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Heat UNDER 205 

This will already be the 4th and final meeting of the 2017-18 season between the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat.  It’s safe to say that they are familiar with one another, and that familiarity certainly favors the defenses. 

These teams just played one week ago today with Miami winning 106-105 at Charlotte.  I think this rematch will be much more low scoring, especially with the way the Heat are playing of late.  And the Hornets have lost the first three meetings, so they will be fighting extra hard defensively to try and avoid the season sweep. 

The Heat have combined for 189 points with Houston and 177 points with Sacramento in their last two games coming in.  The Heat are one of the better defensive teams in the league giving up 101.5 points per game, but their offense has struggled all season at 100.7 points per game. 

Charlotte is 18-6 UNDER when revenging a home loss over the last two seasons.  Miami is 21-6 UNDER when its opponent allowed 100 points or more in its previous game.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Heat last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hornets last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in in Hornets last six games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Miami.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* Knicks/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 217 

The Knicks are playing little defense at all right now, which is why they have gone through a 4-14 stretch over their last 18 games.  That has been even more apparent here of late as the OVER is 9-0 in Knicks last nine games overall. 

I think the Knicks are just a tired team right now, and that’s showing up on defense.  They are in the midst of a 7-game road trip and conclude that trip tonight.  During this 9-0 OVER run, the Knicks and their opponents have combined to average 231.6 points per game.  That’s nearly 15 points more than tonight’s posted total of 217. 

I don’t see much changing tonight against a Phoenix Suns team that doesn’t play any defense, either.  The Suns have allowed at least 100 points in 12 consecutive games coming in.  They are giving up 112.2 points per game on the season.  The Knicks are allowing 110.3 points per game on the road. 

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings as the Suns and Knicks have combined to average 222 points per game.  The Knicks beat the Suns 120-107 for 227 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Play on the OVER on any team (New York) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, on Friday nights are 28-5 (84.8%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Cavs UNDER 223.5 

The Pacers and Cavs are extremely familiar with one another.  This will be their 4th and final meeting of the season already.  Based on the way the first three have been trending, it’s safe to say there’s value with the UNDER tonight. 

In Game 1, they combined for 231 points in a shootout.  But Game 2 saw just 208 combined points, and Game 3 saw even less at 192.  As teams become more familiar with each other, the defenses have the advantage. 

The Cavs are looking to do anything they can to play better defense amidst a 1-6 stretch.  Now they have decided to move Kevin Love from Center to Power Forward.  They are inserting Tristan Thompson into the starting center role now, and this will make them a better defensive team. 

Indiana is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 115 points or more this season.  The Pacers are 14-4 UNDER off one or more consecutive overs this season.  Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 220 or more (Cleveland) - excellent free throw shooting team making 79% or better against a good FT shooting team (76%-79%) after 42-plus games are 25-4 (86.2%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Raptors UNDER 208.5 

It’s easy to see there’s value with the UNDER in tonight’s matchup between the Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors when you look at the recent series history.  Points will be hard to come by tonight. 

The Raptors and Jazz have combined for 209 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They have averaged just 197 combined points in those five meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight’s posted total of 208.5 

Both teams have played in some very low-scoring games here of late.  Utah combined for 194 points with Atlanta and then 193 points with Detroit in its last two games despite going to overtime against the Pistons.  Toronto combined for 187 with Detroit, 169 with San Antonio and 201 with Atlanta in three of its last four games. 

Utah is 8-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Toronto is 14-5 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last eight games following a win.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 home games. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Utah) - off an upset win as an underdog against an opponent that’s off a road win are 48-19 (71.6%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Wizards/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5 

Since December 1st, the Oklahoma City Thunder are 14-0 when all five of their normal starters play.  That’s Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Andre Roberson and Steven Adams.  They are full healthy now and have all five starters going tonight. 

The Thunder will also be playing with a chip on their shoulder in the short-term, especially Paul George.  Westbrook and head coach Billy Donovan have both been vocal in the media about how George should have made the All-Star team.  He was arguably the biggest snub in the entire NBA, and he’ll be playing with added motivation moving forward. 

The Wizards have lost five of their last eight games overall.  They are in turmoil right now.  Their players’ only meeting clearly did not go very well.  In their first game after the meeting, they lost 75-98 on the road to the Dallas Mavericks.  And now they are dealing with an injury to one of their best players on Otto Porter Jr., who is questionable with a hip injury tonight. 

Washington is 3-11 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Washington.  The Thunder are 8-0 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Wizards, winning by an average is 11.1 points per game.  The Wizards are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet the Thunder Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +6 

The Chicago Bulls continue to be greatly underrated despite going 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They are also 15-9 SU in their last 24 games.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall heading into this showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The 76ers are starting to get too much love after going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Now they are being asked to lay 6 points at home to these red-hot Bulls.  This is only the second time in the past 14 games that the 76ers have been a favorite of 6 points or more. 

The Bulls have really had the 76ers’ number in recent years, going 14-1 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That’s another reason they should not be catching 6 points in a game they will likely win outright again tonight.  Especially with the 76ers playing without three key players in Markelle Fultz, J.J. Redick and T.J. McConnell. 

Chicago is 9-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Philadelphia.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday. 

15* Cavs/Spurs TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers held a players’ only meeting on Monday following their 124-148 home loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday.  They hashed out their problems, and I look for them to put forth a big effort tonight in San Antonio working on two days’ rest. 

The Spurs aren’t playing much better right now.  They are just 2-4 in their last six games overall with losses to the Lakers, Hawks and Pacers in there.  A big reason for the Spurs’ struggles right now is all of their injuries, while the Cavs come in healthy. 

The Spurs are without Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobli.  Those are four of their best players, and they simply don’t have the talent on the bench to replace them.  Until they get healthy, the Spurs are going to continue to struggle to win games. 

Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Antonio) - after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games against an opponent after two straight games where both teams scored 100 or more points are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +6.5 

The Chicago Bulls continue to be massively underrated despite going 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  They are also 15-8 SU in their last 23 games overall.   

Now they are catching 6.5 points against the New Orleans Pelicans Monday.  I’ll gladly continue backing them at a tremendous value in a game they certainly have the ability to win outright tonight. 

The road team has dominated this series.  The road team is 23-9-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings.  The Bulls are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to New Orleans. 

Chicago is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Bulls come in rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  That’s important because Chicago is 12-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Bet the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10 

The Charlotte Hornets can’t be laying double-digits against anyone right now.  They are just 18-26 on the season, including 12-13 at home.  I’ll gladly fade them here tonight in the double-digit favorite role. 

Certainly there hasn’t been a lot to like about the Kings of late as they have lost seven straight games coming in.  But that also gives us the opportunity to ‘buy low’ on them at this double-digit price. 

Charlotte is 3-13 ATS in home games off two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Charlotte is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Plays on road underdogs (Sacramento) after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread against opponent that covered two of their last three are 164-101 (61.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Kings Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Magic/Celtics UNDER 208 

The reason for the success of the Boston Celtics has been their work on the defensive end of the court.  The Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.5 points per 100 possessions. 

But despite being such a young team, the Celtics actually run more of an old-school offense under Brad Stevens.  They slow it down and get the best shot available.  In fact, the Celtics rank just 20th in the NBA in pace.  Now the Celtics are dealing with an injury to their best player in Kyrie Irving, who missed last game with a shoulder injury. 

The Magic have a ton of injuries of their own right now that have really hampered them, especially offensively.  The Celtics are playing without Nikola Vucevic, Terrance Ross, Jonathan Isaac and Arron Afflalo.  The UNDER is 12-6 in their last 16 games overall and they have been held to less than 100 points in eight of those games. 

I think both teams will be sleep walking through this game Sunday with such an early start time, which will help aid the UNDER.  Boston is 22-9 UNDER after allowing 90 points or less over the last two seasons.  Orlando is 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 70% over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Magic last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Pelicans UNDER 212 

Memphis at New Orleans just played on January 10th with Memphis winning 105-102 at home.  So these teams will be very familiar with one another playing just over a week later here Saturday, which favors the defenses. 

This has been a very low-scoring series as it is.  In fact, the Grizzlies and Pelicans have combined to average just 189.4 points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine meetings.  That’s roughly 23 points less than tonight’s posted total of 212. 

Each of the last nine meetings between Memphis and New Orleans have seen 207 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 212-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +9 

I like the situation for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep to the Nuggets after losing each of the first three meetings in this season.  This will be their 4th and final meeting and the last chance for the Suns to beat the Nuggets. 

Injuries to the Suns were a big reason for those three previous losses.  And now that they are mostly healthy they are ready to give Denver a run for its money.  Plus, the Suns are rested having two days off coming into this game, and this will be just their 4th game in 12 days dating back further. 

Denver will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and its 9th game in 15 days.  The Nuggets played in Los Angeles on Wednesday and there’s certainly some distractions that go with that.  Also, I don’t expect the Nuggets to be very motivated at all tonight after already beating the Suns three times this season. 

The Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days’ rest.  Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet the Suns Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +10.5 

The Orlando Magic have been grossly undervalued here in recent weeks.  That’s because they have gone 2-16 straight up in their last 18 games overall.  But now they are starting to catch too many points on a nightly basis, and they shouldn’t be catching double-digit points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. 

The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 4 to Cleveland as 8.5-point home underdogs, by 7 at Milwaukee as 10.5-point underdogs, by 6 at Washington as 10.5-point dogs, and beat Minnesota by 6 as 8.5-point home dogs in their four covers.  So that also makes this a revenge spot for the Magic, who will be looking for payback from their 127-131 home loss to the Cavs on January 6th. 

Cleveland cannot be laying this kind of weight right now.  The Cavaliers are just 3-9 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 108-118 home loss to the Warriors, their biggest rivals.  That sets them up for a hangover spot here as they won’t be nearly as excited to face the Magic tonight, a team they just beat 12 days ago. 

Perhaps my favorite trend of the entire season is that Cleveland is 0-11 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.  They are actually losing these games 111.3 to 112.2 on average.  The Cavaliers are 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season as well.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last few weeks.  They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have won three of their last four home games with their only loss coming by 2 as 4.5-point underdogs to Washington. 

Now they get to face a New York Knicks team that has been dreadful on the road all season.  The Knicks are just 5-15 SU & 8-12 ATS on the road this year.  They are losing by 7.4 points per game and giving up 107.9 points per game on the highway. 

The Grizzlies are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Knicks.  Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Memphis.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +2.5 

Despite having one of the worst records in the NBA, the Atlanta Hawks have been a real money maker for bettors.  They are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Now they are home underdogs to the New Orleans Pelicans when they shouldn’t be. 

This is a tough spot for the Pelicans, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And they are coming off back-to-back overtime road wins against the Knicks and Celtics.  They are in a clear letdown spot here after that huge win in Boston last night, and they won’t have much left in the tank. 

This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Hawks, who beat the Spurs 102-99 as 5.5-point home underdogs last time out.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) off a road win by 3 points or less, when playing on back-to-back days are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Hawks Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -1 

After a slow start to the season, the Hornets are starting to rally and make their playoff push.  The slow start was due to injuries and the loss of head coach Steve Clifford, who just recently returned to the bench.  The Hornets have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and are now pretty much healthy. 

The Wizards just aren’t playing very well at all right now.  They have lost three of their last five despite playing all five games at home.  And they are also 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Now they continue getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 1-point road underdogs to the Hornets here. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  The Wizards are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5 

The Boston Celtics have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA all season.  They are 34-10 SU & 27-15-2 ATS in their 44 games this season.  And now they’re still not getting the respect they deserve as only 4.5-point home favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. 

This is a great spot for the Celtics as well.  They will be fresh and ready to go.  This will be just their 2nd game in 10 days, which is extremely rare in the NBA.  But it’s easy to see why as they played the 76ers in London on January 11th, so they needed extra time off to travel.  But this extra rest will be a huge boost for the team moving forward. 

The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Pelicans.  Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Celtics Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +8.5

This game is the perfect storm.  The Orlando Magic couldn’t possibly be more undervalued right now after going just 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall.  That has started to show of late as they’ve gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games, losing by 4 to Cleveland, by 7 at Milwaukee and by 6 at Washington.  They are starting to catch too many points. 

Conversely, the Timberwolves couldn’t be more overvalued right now.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But all five games were at home.  Now they hit the road where they have lost three of their last four games to Brooklyn, Boston and Milwaukee out East. 

Minnesota is 18-43 ATS in its last 61 games after scoring 120 points or more.  The Timberwolves are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Magic Tuesday. 

15* Warriors/Cavs TNT Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 233.5 

No two teams are more familiar with one another than the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors. After all, they have met in the NBA Finals in three consecutive seasons.  And familiarity makes it tougher on the offenses and easier on the defenses because they know each other’s tendencies. 

That was certainly on display in the first meeting of the season between the Warriors and Cavs.  That game saw Golden State win 99-92 and stay well UNDER the 215.5-point total on Christmas Day.  Now they are playing just a few weeks later and the total is set at 233.5, so I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER tonight. 

Cleveland is 19-7 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  Golden State is 19-5 UNDER after leading its previous game by 15 or more points at halftime over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six Monday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* Lakers/Grizzlies TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -2.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies will be playing more inspired today than they would on any average night.  It’s Martin Luther King Day, and with Memphis being the place of MLK’s death, this day holds an even more special day for these players and their fans.  Look for a big effort from them tonight. 

The Grizzlies have been much more competitive of late, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I believe they are currently undervalued.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  The Grizzlies are 6-0 straight up in their last six home meetings with the Lakers. 

Los Angeles is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  But three of those four games were at home, and three were against some of the worst teams in the NBA in Atlanta, Sacramento and Dallas.  The Lakers had lost 12 of their previous 13 games prior to this streak. 

The Lakers could be without two of their best players tonight in Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, who are both questionable.  The Lakers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Bulls UNDER 207 

Few teams play as hard defensively as the Miami Heat.  That was certainly on display yesterday as the Heat won their seventh consecutive game with a n impressive 97-79 home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks.  I think their offense will suffer playing the second of a back-to-back here, but their defensive intensity will be there to make up for it as they go for their 8th straight victory. 

But it’s the head-to-head history between Miami and Chicago that has me really intrigued by this UNDER. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  All six meetings saw 205 or fewer combined points.  The Bulls and Heat have averaged just 195.2 combined points per game in those six games, which is roughly 12 points less than today’s posted total of 207. 

Miami is 20-6 UNDER in its last 26 games off a win by 10 points or more.  The Heat are 10-1 UNDER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Heat last nine games playing on 0 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Heat last 52 road games.  The UNDER is 15-4 in Bulls last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2 

They Miami Heat have now won six straight games.  Now they are getting some reinforcements today as both James Johnson and Justise Winslow are returning from injury.  Now at basically full strength, this team is going to continue being dangerous moving forward. 

The Bucks have struggled of late, going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are coming off a disappointing 94-108 home loss to the Golden State Warriors Friday in which they blew a 4th quarter lead.  I think they’ll suffer a hangover from that loss to the defending champs. 

Miami is 12-1 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 16-5 ATS versus poor rebounding teams getting outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 Sunday games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1 

We are certainly getting a nice value with the Chicago Bulls at home tonight as only 1-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They just have to win the game essentially to cover, and this team has been doing a lot of winning and covering of late. 

Indeed, the Bulls are 12-7 SU in their last 19 games and 15-5 ATS in their last 10 games.  They have consistently been undervalued over the past month and that hasn’t changed one bit here tonight.  I love the passion this team has played with ever since Nikola Mirotic returned to the lineup. 

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  None of those four meetings were even close as the home team won by 11 points or more in all four meetings and by an average of 17 points per game. 

Detroit is 4-17 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  The Pistons are 20-43 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Bulls Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +9.5 

Both the Wizards and Nets played last night, so there will be no advantage there.  The Wizards beat the Magic 125-119, while the Nets beat the Hawks 110-105.  But the difference here is that the Nets have the better bench and will be the fresher team because nobody played big minutes last night. 

Only one player played more than 29 minutes for the Nets, which was the 33 by Allen Crabbe.  Conversely, the Wizards had their three studs in John Wall (36), Bradley Beal (36) and Otto Porter (39) all play big minutes as they were fighting tooth and nail to beat the lowly Magic. 

The Nets have owned the Wizards this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in the two previous meetings.  They won 103-98 as 3.5-point home underdogs, and 119-84 as 6-point home dogs.  Now they find themselves catching a whopping 9.5 points in the third meeting, which is simply too much. 

The Nets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Brooklyn is 12-3 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  Washington is 4-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Nets Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +9 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  This run has them overvalued now.  And the Timberwolves are clearly primed for a letdown after back-to-back huge home wins over the Cavaliers and Thunder. 

Plays against favorites (Minnesota) after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team winning 60% to 75% or more of their games on the season are 38-12 (76%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Conversely, the Knicks are undervalued after going just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But six of those eight losses came by 9 points or fewer, so they have been competitive.  And seven of those 10 games were on the road.  It has been a tough stretch, but the Knicks should be rejuvenated now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days. 

The Knicks have owned the Timberwolves over the past two seasons, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS despite being the underdog in three of those four meetings.  They just have the winning formula against the Timberwolves, and I think they will be the more motivated team in this matchup. 

The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day of rest.  The Timberwolves are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  New York is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +2.5 

I’m not sure how the Cleveland Cavaliers can actually be favored tonight against the Indiana Pacers with how poorly they are playing.  After all, the Cavaliers are 6-25-1 ATS as favorites this season, so they have been money burners all year. 

And now the Cavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after yet another ugly 99-133 loss in Toronto last night against a Raptors team that was playing without two starters in Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka.  That followed up a 99-127 loss at Minnesota the game before.  The Cavs are now just 2-6 SU in their last eight games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 contests.  And now they’ll be without Isaiah Thomas, who is resting in this one. 

The Pacers haven’t won a game when Victor Oladipo has sat out.  But he returned from injury three games ago and the Pacers have gone 2-1 since.  They beat the Bulls 125-86 and the Bucks 109-96 while losing to the red-hot Miami Heat 106-114.  But they shot just 1-of-18 from 3-point range against the Heat, yet were still tied with a few minutes to go.  They won’t shoot that poorly again, especially not against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 129 points per game in their last three contests. 

Indiana is 9-1 ATS after having lost six or seven of its last eight games over the past two seasons.  It is winning by 7.8 points per game on average in this spot.  The Cavs are 1-9 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road gams.  The Pacers have won each of their first two meetings this season with the Cavs outright as underdogs.  Indiana is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Pacers Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings +1.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they are clearly in a letdown spot after beating the Warriors on the road last night.  Well, the Warriors sat both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, so it comes with an asterisk. 

The Clippers won’t be nearly as excited to face the Kings, who will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping five of their last six games overall.  But in their last two home games they beat Denver 106-98 as 8.5-point dogs and led San Antonio nearly the entire way until the closing minutes, losing 100-107 as 5-point dogs. 

While the Kings are relatively healthy, the Clippers have all kinds of injury issues that will make this back-to-back that much more difficult.  They have been without Blake Griffin, who remains questionable with a concussion.  Austin Rivers, Danilo Gallinari and Patrick Beverly are all out.  C.J. Williams is doubtful, while Milos Teodosic is questionable. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - off a loss to a division rival, in January games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Clippers) - off two or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 74-39 (65.5%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Kings Thursday. 

15* Cavs/Raptors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 222 

The Toronto Raptors are going to be without two of their best offensive weapons in point guard Kyle Lowry and power forward Serge Ibaka tonight.  They are going to have to muck it up and make this an ugly game if they want any chance to beat the Cavaliers tonight, which is why I think there’s value with the UNDER. 

The Cavaliers are frustrated right now, losing five of their last seven games overall coming in.  It can mostly be attributed to poor defense, but their offense has also been struggling.  They have been held to 101 or fewer points in all five of those losses.  I look for them to put a renewed effort defensively tonight after losing 99-127 to the Timberwolves on Monday.  They have had two days off since to fix their defense. 

These teams are very familiar with one another after squaring off in the playoffs each of the past two seasons.  I think that familiarity will make points harder to come by.  In fact, 14 of the last 17 meetings in this series have seen less than 222 points, which is what this total has been set at tonight. 

Cleveland is 10-2 UNDER off a non-conference game this season.  Toronto is 11-3 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers’ last eight vs. NBA Atlantic opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Raptors last six home games.  The UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in Toronto.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Grizzlies UNDER 213 

Just looking at the recent head-to-head history in this series it’s easy to see that there is value with the UNDER tonight.  Plus the fact that the Pelicans are going to be without their best player in Anthony Davis makes me like the UNDER even more. 

The Pelicans and Grizzlies have combined for 205 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight straight meetings, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 213-point total.  They have averaged just 190.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 23 points less than this total.  The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Memphis. 

Memphis is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season.  New Orleans is 14-4 UNDER in road games vs. division opponents over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 8-1 UNDER vs. division opponents this season.  The Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS after covering four of their last five games against the spread over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to be without their best player in Anthony Davis tonight.  They haven’t been playing well of late anyways, going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have upset home losses to Dallas and New York during this stretch, and an 18-point road loss at Minnesota. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to play much better here of late.  They are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite playing four of their last five games on the road, and their lone home game was a 2-point loss to Washington as 4.5-point dogs. 

The Grizzlies have owned the Pelicans, going 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent off a loss by 6 points or less are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5 

The Pacers had lost five in a row before the return of Victor Oladipo.  He returned Saturday and sparked the Pacers’ 39-point win.  The Pacers then led the entire way in an impressive 109-96 home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Heat are overvalued right now due to winning five straight games.  But now they’re in a tough spot as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 90-89 victory in Toronto against a Raptors team that was playing without Kyle Lowry last night.   

And now the Heat will likely be without one of their best players in James Johnson, who is expected to be suspended.  They were already missing Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow, and Tyler Johnson is questionable with a shoulder injuries.  That makes this back-to-back set even more difficult for them. 

Indiana is 10-0 straight up in its last 10 home meetings with Miami.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Indiana.  The Pacers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Miami is 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Raptors UNDER 207.5 

The Toronto Raptors just played a grueling 114-113 (OT) game in Brooklyn last night.  Kyle Lowry fell hard and hurt his tailbone, forcing him to leave the game.  It’s likely that he won’t be available tonight in this back-to-back set against the Heat, which would significantly hamper Toronto’s offense. 

The Heat prefer to play at a slow tempo.  They rank 27th in the NBA in pace at 96.8 possessions per game.  Miami is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, especially when Hassan Whiteside is healthy, which he hasn’t been for much of the season until recently.  And the Heat are just 22nd in offensive efficiency. 

But the heat-to-head history here is the reason this is such a good bet.  In fact, each of the last 11 meetings between Toronto and Miami have seen 205 combined points or less.  And two of those games even went to overtime.  They have averaged just 190.3 combined points per game in those 11 meetings, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight’s posted total of 207.5.  We’ll take this 11-0 system straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 

I love the situation tonight for the Indiana Pacers.  They just lost to the Bucks 101-122 on the road on Wednesday, January 3rd.  Now they get their chance at revenge less than a week later, and this time around they will have their best player in Victor Oladipo. 

After losing five consecutive games and remaining winless when Oladipo sits, they got a big boost with his return on Saturday.  Oladipo went 9-of-11 shooting for 23 points and delivered nine assists with five steals in a 125-86 rout of the Chicago Bulls.   

Now the Pacers will be fresh as this is just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Bucks will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.  And the Pacers have owned the Bucks at home, going 34-12 straight up in their last 46 meetings. 

Plays on favorites (Indiana) - revenging a loss vs. opponent by 10 points or more against an opponent that’s off a road win are 106-60 (63.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  The Bucks are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Pacers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward.  They have had a rough season injury-wise thus far, yet they’re still 20-18 on the year.  Look for this team to make a push into the All-Star Break after going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. 

The Spurs have lost two of their last four to the Piston and 76ers with their two wins coming against the Knicks and Suns.  Unlike Portland, San Antonio is really banged up right now.  The Spurs are expected to be without Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green and Rudy Gay tonight. 

The Spurs are just 9-11 SU & 7-12-1 ATS on the road this season.  Plays on home favorites (Portland) after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in Sunday games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  Portland is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a straight up win by more than 10 points.  Take the Blazers Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans +2 

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a brutal spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are a tired team right now, and it has shown with back-to-back road losses at Brooklyn and at Boston. 

After facing Boston last night, it will be a long flight back to Minnesota.  And compounding matters is the fact that they have to face a rested Pelicans team that has had two days off coming in, and one that will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days. 

They will also be facing a motivated Pelicans team that has already lost twice at home to the Timberwolves this season.  So they’ll want some revenge here, and they should get it given their massive rest advantage. 

Plays on underdogs (New Orleans) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent, off an upset win as a road underdog are 98-54 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 

I love the situation for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They get a chance to avenge an overtime loss in Toronto on Monday, January 1st just a few days ago.  They will be the more motivated team here on Friday, January 5th. 

The Bucks come in playing well having gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have beaten Minnesota and Indiana at home, and Oklahoma City on the road while also losing to the Raptors on the road in overtime.  This team is really coming together. 

I think the Raptors are way overvalued right now as road favorites here over the Bucks.  They have won three straight coming in, but the schedule has been much lighter with games against the Hawks, Bucks and Bulls. They lost their two previous road games to the Thunder and Mavericks prior to this winning streak. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Milwaukee) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Friday nights are 38-15 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Bucks Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -4.5 

The Miami Heat have done a great job of digging themselves out of an early hole to get to 20-17 and currently three games above .500.  They recently got James Johnson back in the lineup, and they are getting some big contributions from everywhere. 

The Heat have gone 9-4 in their last 13 games overall.  They are coming off a 111-104 win over the Pistons.  Kelly Olynyk had 25 points and 13 rebounds, Goran Tragic had 24 points and 13 assists, Josh Richardson had 25 points and 5 assists and Johnson provided 16 points in 24 minutes in his return from injury. 

I don’t like the mindset of the Knicks right now.  Kristaps Porzingis came out and said he is so tired right now, and that it’s mentally tough and he doesn’t have it in him.  That’s a bad statement and one that won’t sit well in the locker room moving forward. 

The Knicks have gone 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New York is 3-13 SU & 5-11 ATS on the road this season.  The Knicks are 1-12 ATS in road games against teams who attempts 21 or fewer free throws per game over the last two seasons.  Miami is 25-11 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 Friday games.  The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Knicks are 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Roll with the Heat Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -6 

The Detroit Pistons are extremely vulnerable right now due to all their injuries.  They are already without Reggie Jackson, Stanley Johnson and Jon Leuer.  Now they could be without All-Star center Andre Drummond tonight as he is questionable with a rib injury. 

The 76ers are in good shape on the injury front with their only player they’re missing being Markelle Fultz, who has been out for months.  This return to health has led to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run over their last five games for the 76ers. 

I’m expecting a big effort here from the 76ers.  That’s because they won’t play against until January 11th, getting five days off in between games.  They want to go into this extended break on a four-game winning streak and should have no problem accomplishing that against the depleted Pistons. 

Philadelphia is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games following an ATS win.  The 76ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.  The Pistons are 19-42 ATS in their last 61 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Detroit is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The favorite is 39-18-1 ATS in the last 58 meetings.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

20* Thunder/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2 

The Los Angeles Clippers are way under the radar right now.  They had some key injuries that led to a poor run, but now Blake Griffin and company are back healthy and the Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game. 

Indeed, the Clippers are 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won all six games by 8 points or more as well.  They had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go at home tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Conversely, the Thunder just played last night against the Lakers and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  And spending the night in Los Angeles is always a shaky proposition because it’s likely the players went out and partied last night.  And the Thunder have been money burners on the road, going 7-11 SU & 6-12 ATS this season. 

Oklahoma City is 3-15 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Los Angeles is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Thunder are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Suns/Nuggets OVER 217.5 

The books have set the bar too low in this game tonight between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets.  This game will be a shootout, especially since both teams are almost fully healthy going in. 

The recent head-to-head series is all that needs to be seen here to know there’s value with the OVER.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 235, 247, 234 and 224 points.  That’s an average of 235 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points more than this 217.5-point total.   

Denver is 10-1 OVER in home games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 15-2 OVER versus terrible defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Cavs/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston -2.5 

The Boston Celtics want to make a statement tonight and let the Cleveland Cavaliers know that they are coming for them in the Eastern Conference.  Look for a big effort from the Celtics, especially given the advantageous situation for them. 

The Celtics were a tired team in December with a brutal schedule and few breaks.  But they got a big break heading into this game with two days off having last played on Sunday against Brooklyn.  They will be rested and ready to go tonight. 

Conversely, the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a home win over the Portland Trail Blazers last night.  It was Isaiah Thomas’ season debut, and he played well and showed what might be a sign of things to come.  But now Thomas will sit this game to rest, and the Cavaliers will be fatigued quickly. 

The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Boston is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8 

The Houston Rockets cannot be 8-point road favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.  They just lost their best player and MVP candidate James Harden to a hamstring injury that will sideline him for a couple weeks.  They’ll still be good with Chris Paul, but they cannot be laying this kind of weight. 

Conversely, the Orlando Magic are getting healthy.  They just recently got back their top two scorers in Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon, who both average over 18 points per game.  They have been competitive in their three games since their return, beating Detroit by 13 and only losing to Miami by 6 and Brooklyn by 3. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings.  The Magic have won two of their last three home meetings with the Rockets outright, and their only loss came by 7 points, which is less than this 8-point spread. 

The Rockets are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Magic are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Rockets, including 6-2 ATS in their last eight home meetings.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Cavaliers OVER 211.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have already been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, and one of the worst defensive teams in the league up to this point.  Now Isaiah Thomas is expected to make his season debut for the Cavaliers tonight.  Thomas is a great scorer and a terrible defender, so he’ll fit right in. 

The Cavaliers rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 111.1 points per 100 possessions.  But what has held them back this season is the fact that they rank 28th in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.7 points per 100 possessions. 

Portland also gets some good news tonight with the return of leading scorer Damian Lillard, who missed the past five games with a right hamstring strain.  The Blazers have put up 114 and 124 points in two of their last three games without him, but getting him back will only make them even more explosive offensively moving forward. 

The OVER is 21-10-1 in Cavaliers last 32 home games.  The OVER is 8-3 in Cavaliers last 11 games when playing on 2 days’ rest.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Cleveland.  They combined for 262 points in their lone meeting in Cleveland last season.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +2 

The Magic just recently got healthy with Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon returning to the lineup.  These are their two leading scorers as Gordon averages 18.9 PPG while Fournier scores 18.3 PPG.  They have gone 1-1 since their return with an upset win over Detroit by 13 and a 6-point loss to Miami as underdogs. 

I think the Magic can take advantage of a Nets team in a terrible situation tonight.  The Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a tough 105-108 loss in Boston last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank here. 

The spot is even worse for the Nets considering they are coming off a five-game road trip with a ton of travel.  I usually like fading tired teams off an extended road trip in their first game back home.  They are usually distracted, and the Nets will certainly be distracted considering last night was New Year’s Eve. 

The Nets are 6-17 ATS in home games off a division game over the last three seasons.  Brooklyn is 18-33 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last three years.  Bet the Magic Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2 

This is the perfect spot to fade the Memphis Grizzlies.  They are coming off a 128-141 shootout loss to the Golden State Warriors on the road last night.  So they will be tired now as they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days tonight. 

The Kings come in rested with yesterday off and motivated for a victory following an upset home loss to the Suns.  It was an understandable loss as they were coming off a 109-95 upset win over the Cavs as 9.5-point dogs, so it was clearly a letdown spot.  Look for them to be refocused and ready to go tonight against the fatigued Grizzlies. 

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS off a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite.  Memphis is 2-11 ATS when the total is 190 to 195.5 this season.  The Grizzlies are 2-11 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Sacramento is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  Bet the Kings Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +7.5 

What do the Chicago Bulls have to do to get any love from the books?  They are once again catching too many points here as 7.5-point road underdogs to the Washington Wizards. 

All the Bulls have done is gone 10-2 straight up in their last 12 games and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games.  This run has coincided with Nikola Mirotic joining the lineup over the past 12 games.  There’s no reason to stop backing them now. 

I think the Wizards are getting love from oddsmakers from their 121-103 win over the Rockets on Friday.  But that was an awful spot for the Rockets as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and they were without Chris Paul.  They had blown a 26-point lead to the Celtics the previous night and were in a hangover spot because of it. 

The Bulls are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The road team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take the Bulls Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Nuggets OVER 215.5 

The 76ers are a much better team with Joel Embiid in the lineup, but they are also a much worse defensive team without him.  And that leads me to take the OVER here in this game between the 76ers and Nuggets tonight with Embiid out.  The 76ers play at a much faster tempo without him because they don’t have to run their offense through him.  They also play little to no defense. 

These two teams are mirror images of one another for the most part.  They both have skilled big men, they both thrive on offense, and they both play little defense.  The Nuggets average 111.7 points per game at home this season and give up 105.8 points per game overall.  The 76ers are averaging 107.9 point points per game overall and giving up 110.7 points per game on the road. 

The Nuggets are coming off a 125-128 overtime loss at Minnesota, while the 76ers are coming off a 110-114 loss in Portland.  The last time these two teams met up came in Denver last year with the 76ers winning 124-122 for 246 combined points. 

The OVER is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The OVER is 4-1 in 76ers last five vs. Western Conference foes.  Denver is 16-3 OVER in home games off a division game over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-1 OVER after a combined score of 245 points or more over the last two years.  Denver is 32-11 OVER versus poor defensive teams allow 106 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday. 

25* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -2.5 

The Chicago Bulls are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut.  They are getting contributions from everywhere and continue to be one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA at this point in the season. 

Now the mission will be to avenge a 96-98 road loss at Indiana the game before this streak started.  The Bulls led that game 83-69 entering the fourth quarter, but were outscored 29-13 in the final period.  There’s no question they haven’t forgotten that loss and will want to get their revenge at home this time around. 

I like their chances considering Indiana is likely to be without its best player in Victor Oladipo in this one.  Oladipo missed the last game with knee soreness and is doubtful to play tonight.  It would be a huge loss for the Pacers as he averages 24.9 points per game and is their emotional leader. 

The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings and is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a grueling 128-125 overtime victory over the Denver Nuggets last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, especially since they are expected to be without starting PG Jeff Teague. 

Milwaukee comes into this game highly motivated for a victory after back-to-back losses to Charlotte and Chicago.  The Bucks will be the much fresher team as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight. 

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Bucks own the Timberwolves, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  They won their last three home meetings with the Timberwolves by 7, 15 and 14 points.  The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. 

The Timberwolves are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS In their last four games vs. at team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Timberwolves are 17-42 ATS in their last 59 after scoring 120 points or more in their previous game.  The Bucks are 25-12 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Bet the Bucks Thursday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a big hangover spot tonight against the Sacramento Kings.  They just lost to their biggest rivals in the Golden State Warriors 99-92 on Christmas Day.  There’s no way they will bring the same intensity to this game against the Kings that they did against the Warriors. 

That’s especially the case considering they just beat the Kings 101-95 as 12.5-point home favorites earlier this month.  They will think they can just show up and win, while the Kings will be ultra motivated to get revenge and pull off the upset. 

I realize the Kings played last night against the Clippers on the road, but that was a blowout and they won’t be fatigued because of it.  They were probably looking ahead to this game.  And this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days, so the effects of the back-to-back are a non-factor here. 

Cleveland is 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season.  Cleveland is 0-12 ATS as a favorite of 9.5 or more points this season.  The Cavaliers are 5-21 ATS as a favorite this year.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +1.5 

The Boston Celtics are running on fumes right now.  They haven’t had two straight days off since November 28-29.  They will be playing their 11th game in 19 days here tonight, and they have a home game against Houston on deck tomorrow. 

It’s no wonder the Celtics are currently going through their roughest stretch of the season.  They have lost three of their last four to Miami, New York and Washington.  The Celtics are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. 

Making matters worse for the Celtics is that they are banged-up right now.  They are without Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown and Semi Ojeleye for this game.  Their depth, which has been a huge strength up to this point, has been compromised. 

The Hornets are fresh and ready to go tonight as they have had three days off since beating the Bucks 111-106 at home on Saturday.  They are also extremely healthy right now for the first time basically all season as they only significant player they are missing is bench player Cody Zeller. 

The Hornets blew a 57-41 halftime lead and lost 87-90 at Boston in their only meeting against the Celtics this season.  They will be motivated for revenge at home this time around.  The Hornets are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5 

The Detroit Pistons are getting zero respect from oddsmakers as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall and deserve to be getting more respect here tonight.  One of those was a 104-98 road win at Indiana as 5-point underdogs. 

The Pacers are just 3-3 in their last six games.  Their three wins came against Brooklyn (twice) and Atlanta, two of the worst teams in the NBA.  Now they have to travel and face a Pistons team that has a huge home-court advantage over the past several seasons, going 10-5 at home this year. 

The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on three or more days’ rest. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Pistons Tuesday. 

20* Rockets/Thunder NBA No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City +2 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have had this game circled all offseason.  They lost 4-1 to the Rockets in the playoffs with three of those losses coming by 6 points or fewer.  They were a one-man show with Russell Westbrook then, but that’s the case no longer now. 

The Thunder have finally started to gel with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, going 6-1 in their last seven games overall coming in.  They are primed to upset the Houston Rockets on Christmas Day. 

The Rockets have struggled of late with back-to-back upset home losses to the Lakers are 15-point favorites and the Clippers as 12.5-point favorites.  It’s easy to see why they’ve struggled with their injuries right now.  Chris Paul has missed the past couple games and is doubtful, Luc Mbah a Moute remains out, and Clint Capela is questionable. 

The Thunder are 40-18-3 ATS in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 12-4 at home this season, winning by 7.0 points per game on average.  Take the Thunder Monday. 

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on New York -3 

One of the best bets of the early NBA season is backing the New York Knicks when at home.  They are 15-5 SU & 15-5 ATS in their 20 home games this year, winning by an average of 7.0 points per game.  Madison Square Garden is becoming the home-court advantage that it used to be. 

Now the Knicks get to host the struggling Philadelphia 76ers, who are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  The 76ers are also just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games.  They continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers night in and night out. 

The 76ers are dealing with a bunch of injuries right now, too.  Markelle Fultz is out, J.J. Redick is questionable and Joel Embiid is nursing a back injury, though he is likely to play today.  The Knicks are basically fully healthy outside of Tim Hardaway. 

New York is 7-0 ATS in home games after having won four or five of its last six games this season.  The 76ers are 0-8-1 ATS when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games.  Roll with the Knicks Monday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +8 

The Phoenix Suns continue to get no respect from oddsmakers since trading away Eric Bledsoe and losing Devin Booker to injury.  But this team has arguably been better since because they are so deep.  And they consistently catch more points in the underdog role than they should be getting, which is the case once again tonight as 8-point home dogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Suns have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have only gone 4-7 SU during this stretch, but only three of those seven losses came by more than this 8-point spread.  They have only played four games at home during this stretch, and only one of those game resulted in a loss by more than 8 points. 

Phoenix has played Minnesota extremely tough this season.  This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season, and the Suns are 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their first three meetings.  They won 118-110 as 10-point home dogs, won 108-106 as 12-point road dogs, and only lost 108-119 as 11-point road dogs for their only push.  So they have actually played the Timberwolves very evenly, and they should be able to stay within 8 points at home again. 

Minnesota is 21-37 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves ar e3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning % of less than .400.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  Phoenix is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Suns Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz PK 

I love the spot for the Utah Jazz tonight.  They had yesterday off.  That followed a 100-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday, which came after an ugly 79-107 road loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday.  Now the Jazz will be out for revenge getting to face the Thunder just three days later, but at Salt Lake City this time around. 

And the Thunder are extremely vulnerable coming into this game.  They won’t be motivated to beat a team they just blew out three days ago.  And they are coming off an emotional buzzer-beating 120-117 home win over the Hawks last night as 11.5-point home favorites.  It’s a clear letdown spot for them. 

Plus, the Thunder are running on fumes right now.  Not only will they be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  The Thunder haven’t had back-to-back days off since November 27-28.  This is such a tired team right now, and it helps explain why they are just 10-21 ATS on the season, including 5-11 SU & 4-12 ATS in road games. 

Utah 9-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more.  The Thunder are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Jazz Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Hornets UNDER 212 

This is one of my favorite situations to back an UNDER.  This is a home-and-home situation between the Bucks and Hornets.  These teams just played last night with the Bucks winning 109-104 at home.  Now they play again a day later in Charlotte this time around. 

So they combined for 213 points last night, and now the total is set at 212.  The second meeting in these home-and-home situations is almost always lower scoring than the first.  And I expect that to be the case here as these teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another. 

In fact, this will actually be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these teams already.  It will be their 4th meeting in a two months as their first meeting occurred on October 23rd.  No two teams are more familiar with each other than the Hornets and Bucks this season, which favors the defenses. 

Milwaukee is 39-22 UNDER in its last 61 road games where the total is 210 to 219.5.  Charlotte is 21-10 UNDER after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Hornets last four games playing on 0 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 

I love the Philadelphia 76ers in this spot.  This is a home-and-home situation after the 76ers lost 109-114 at home to the Toronto on Thursday.  Now they get their shot at revenge only two days later and are catching 10.5 points in the rematch to boot.  I’ll gladly back the more motivated team catching double-digit points here. 

The 76ers are certainly a ‘buy low’ team right now after going just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games.  But they were never once a double-digit underdog in those 13 games.  They were favored in eight of them.  Now they’re back to their more preferred role as underdogs. 

The Raptors are a great ‘sell high’ candidate right now.  They have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 games while covering each of their last four against the spread.  But it has come against an extremely soft schedule, and it’s worth noting the Raptors are just 5-7 SU against teams who are above .500 this season.  They aren’t as good as they’re perceived to be right now. 

Plays against any team (Toronto) off two or more consecutive road wins, in December games are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on any team (Philadelphia) off a home loss to a division rival against opponent off a home win against a division foe are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five years.  Philadelphia is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the 76ers Saturday. 

20* Lakers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +11 

The Los Angeles Lakers are going to want revenge from two overtime home losses to the Golden State Warriors already this season.  They lost 123-127 as 13.5-point dogs, and then 114-116 as 5.5-point dogs on December 18th just five days ago.  I really like the revenge factor being fresh in this quick rematch. 

The Lakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been on the road for five of these six games, pulling off upset wins over Philadelphia as 8.5-point dogs, Houston as 15-point dogs and Charlotte as 3.5-point dogs.  And all three of their losses came by 2, 4 and 9 points.  That 9-point loss came in a cover as 10.5-point dogs at Cleveland. 

The Warriors are vulnerable right now because of all their injuries.  Steph Curry, Zaza Pachulia and Shaun Livingston remain out, Andre Iguodala is questionable, and Draymond Green is expected to play tonight but is battling as shoulder injury.  I don’t expect a very focused effort from the Warriors tonight after just beating the Lakers on Monday. 

Plays on road teams (LA Lakers) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 10-24 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Lakers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 203.5 

The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after a 102-93 home win over the Boston Celtics last night.  Kristaps Porzingis made his return from injury, but went 0-for-11 and didn’t attempt a shot in the second half.  He clearly isn’t 100% and it wouldn’t surprise me if they continue to rest him tonight. 

The Pistons have really been struggling offensively of late.  They have been held to 100 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 games overall.  They have shot 43.6% or less in eight of those 11 games as well.  They miss Avery Bradley and Jon Leuer, who are both out with injury right now. 

Both of these teams prefer to play at slower tempos.  The Pistons rank 21st in pace while the Knicks are 19th.  The UNDER is 4-2 in the last six meetings as these teams have combined for 204 or fewer points in four of those six.  I think we see a very low-scoring game tonight given the tough situation for the Knicks, and the offensive struggles of the Pistons. 

The UNDER is 25-12-1 in Knicks last 38 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Pistons last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 20-5-1 in Pistons last 26 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pistons last five Friday games.  The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Detroit.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* Celtics/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +3 

The Boston Celtics are in an extremely difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They haven’t had consecutive days off in the entire month of December.   

This team is running on fumes right now, and it showed their their 89-90 upset home loss to the Miami Heat. They will also be playing their 8th game in 12 days tonight.  I don’t expect much of an effort at all from them tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Knicks have had two days off since last playing on Monday.  And they get a big boosts with he return of Kristaps Porzingis to the lineup tonight after he missed the past two games with a sore knee. 

The Knicks have been a great beat at home this season, going 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS inside Madison Square Garden.  The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Knicks Thursday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +10.5 

The Chicago Bulls are now 7-0 since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut seven games ago.  He is averaging 19.6 points per game and the bench is playing great.  The Bulls are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 10.5-point underdogs here. 

Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 112-94 home win over Orlando last night.  But that’s not a concern because of their deep bench, and the fact that no player logged more than 29 minutes Wednesday, so the team should be relatively fresh as a whole. 

The Cars are way overvalued due to winning 18 of their last 20 games.  They have gone just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They aren’t blowing teams out.  And now they have their NBA Finals rematch with Golden State on deck on Christmas Day and can’t help but be looking ahead to that huge showdown. 

The Bulls have had the Cavaliers’ number, going 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Chicago is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 Thursday games.  The Bulls are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Cavaliers are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Bet the Bulls Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2 

The Portland Trail Blazers are on a roll right now and they’re still being undervalued tonight as only 2-point favorites over the San Antonio Spurs.  The Blazers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. 

While they are just 3-3 SU during this stretch, they have played five of their last six on the road.  And their three losses came to Houston (by 7), Golden State (by 7) and Minnesota (by 1), three of the best teams in the NBA.  This recent stretch of great play has been possible by the fact that the Blazers have gotten 100% healthy. 

The Spurs are usually one of the best teams in the NBA, but they won’t be tonight with all the players they’ll be missing due to injury.  San Antonio will be without both Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, plus Danny Green and Kyle Anderson are both banged up as well.  They won’t have enough firepower to hang with the Blazers tonight. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Portland) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent that scored 105 or more points in their previous game are 51-21 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Portland is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with San Antonio.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -4.5 

The Chicago Bulls are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut.  They are playing team basketball and I’m going to continue riding them tonight.  Mirotic is averaging 23.2 points per game over his past five games. 

"You can see it in the locker room," Chicago guard Kris Dunn said. "Everybody has a smile, everyone is happy. That's what it's all about. I think the biggest thing, the reason why we are winning is because we are having fun with it. When you are having fun, when you are winning, things (are) a lot smoother.”

Now the Bulls get to play the banged-up Orlando Magic, who have lost five straight coming in to fall to 11-20 on the season.  They are missing two starters in Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon, and their 6th man Terrence Ross remains out as well.  They simply do not have the talent elsewhere to make up for the losses of these three key players.

Chicago has owned Orlando, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the four wins coming by 22, 47, 32 and 8 points.  That 22-point win came earlier this season on November 3rd in Orlando.  The Magic are 0-7 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season.  Orlando is 16-40-2 ATS in its last 58 games following an ATS win.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -5 

The Sacramento Kings are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Now they are getting too much respect from the books for their upset win over Philadelphia last night, a tired Philly team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back itself. 

The Nets are rested and ready to go as they have had two days off since losing to Indiana on Sunday.  They will also be motivated for a victory after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, which has them undervalued as well.  The Nets had gone 10-2 ATS in their previous 12 games and I feel like they are back to being undervalued here. 

The Kings are 14-25 ATS off a win over the last two seasons.  Sacramento is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Kings are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games on 0 days’ rest.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Nets are 43-19-2 ATS in their last 64 vs. NBA Pacific Division foes.  The Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday. 

15* Cavs/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee +2.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a big effort tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory.  They have also had two days off since a 111-115 loss at Houston as 10.5-point dogs on Saturday, which was as tough as anyone has played the Rockets during their 14-game winning streak. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here tonight.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 18-1 in their last 19 games overall.  But they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall as they have consistently been overvalued. 

Milwaukee will also be out for revenge after losing each of their first two meetings this season to the Cavaliers.  They want to prove they can beat the defending Eastern Conference champs, who are much more vulnerable this season than they have been in year’s past due to trading Kyrie Irving and with all their current injuries. 

Cleveland is a woeful 5-19 ATS as a favorite this season.  Milwaukee is 17-4 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 6.9 points per game on average in this spot.  Take the Bucks Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +2.5 

Since Nikola Mirotic returned to the Bulls’ lineup on December 8th, they have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS.  They have beaten Charlotte and Milwaukee on the road, and New York, Boston and Utah at home.   

They were underdogs in all five games, and they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as home dogs tonight.  Mirotic has led the way in averaging 25 points in his past three games and is the team’s leading scorer on the season. 

The 76ers are in a hangover spot here off a triple-overtime loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Joel Embiid suffered a back injury in that game, but played all three overtimes.  He will now sit out this game to rest, as will Trevor Booker.  The 76ers aren’t nearly the same team without Embiid.  They have lost five of their last six games overall coming in. 

Philadelphia is 24-39 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 25-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams out-rebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three years.  The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Chicago is 12-2 ATS In its last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2 

The Boston Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season at 25-7.  Getting them as only 2-point road favorites over the Indiana Pacers is a nice bargain tonight, especially considering the tough spot the Pacers are in. 

Indiana will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 109-97 win in Brooklyn on Sunday.  The Pacers will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days.  The Celtics had yesterday off and will be re-energized here after beating the Grizzlies 102-93 on the road Saturday. 

The Celtics have owned the Pacers, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  All four wins came by 6 points or more, and most of those came against better Pacers teams that had Paul George.  This is a better Celtics team this season as Kyrie Irving and this young talent have really played at a high level all year. 

Boston is 11-0 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games overall.  Indiana is 14-30-1 ATS in its last 45 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Take the Celtics Monday. 

15* Cavs/Wizards NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Washington PK 

The Washington Wizards just recently got back John Wall from injury.  It’s no surprise they have won their two games since his return.  And now they’re going to want to make a statement against the Cleveland Cavaliers, letting them know they are coming for them this season. 

And now the Cavaliers are ripe for the picking.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, as well as their 6th game in 10 days.  The Cars were already short-handed without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert, and now both Tristan Thompson and Dwyane Wade are expected to rest.  The Cavs are short on numbers and won’t have much left in the tank tonight. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) after two or more consecutive wins, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 72-37 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take the Wizards Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Raptors UNDER 206 

The UNDER is almost always a good bet in the situation that the Kings and Raptors are in today.  These teams just played each other on December 10th just seven days ago.  They are extremely familiar with each other because of it, and familiarity favors defense. 

The Kings are one of the slowest teams in the NBA.  They rank 28th in pace at 96.8 possessions per game.  And now they are expected to be without lighting-quick point guard De’Aaron Fox, who is doubtful with a quad injury.  The only time they push the pace is when he’s in, but now they will be even slower than usual without him. 

Toronto just beat Sacramento 102-87 for 189 combined points last Sunday.  Now they’ve set the total at 206, which is 17 points higher.  It’s clear that there’s value with the UNDER.  Not to mention, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The last four meetings have seen 189, 201, 187 and 198 combined points, which is an average of just 193.8 combined points per game.  That’s also 12 points less than this 206-point total. 

The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Kings last 22 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last four Sunday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 198 

I love betting the UNDER in this spot.  The Mavs and Spurs just played each other on Tuesday with the Mavs winning 95-89 at home.  So these teams are very familiar with one another, and now they’ll be playing each other just five days later.  This situation always favors the defenses and the UNDER. 

This has been a low-scoring series between the Mavs and Spurs anyway.  They have combined for 191 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 193.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 5 points less than tonight’s posted total of 198. 

The Spurs will be without their best player in Kawhi Leonard as he gets a night of rest in this back-to-back situation.  The Mavs will be without starting point guard Dennis Smith Jr., who is arguably their best player and scorer as well.  These injuries will help aid this UNDER. 

The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Mavs last 17 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavs last 10 vs. Western Conference.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Spurs last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +3 

The Oklahoma City Thunder just played a triple-overtime game against the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  It’s safe to say they won’t have anything left in the tank today, especially since all five starters played basically the entire 15 minutes of overtime.  Russell Westbrook played 52 minutes, Steven Adams 51, Paul George 45, Carmelo Anthony 47 and Andre Roberson 34. 

The Knicks will be motivated for the Anthony reunion to prove that they are a better team without him.  They will also be rested after having yesterday off.  The Knicks are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game on average.  They have been one of the most profitable teams to bet at home this season. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Oklahoma City) - off a road win by 3 points or less, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Thunder are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Knicks Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +1 

The Denver Nuggets have actually been able to sustain success despite the losses of their two best players in Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap in recent weeks.  But they don’t have to play without both any longer as Jokic is expected to make his return from an ankle injury tonight. 

The Pelicans haven’t won back-to-back games since November 22-24.  They have gone just 4-6 since and are coming off a 115-108 home victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now they’ll be playing their 4th game in 6 days and their 9th game in 15 days.  This is a tired team right now. 

The Nuggets are going to want revenge from a 123-114 road loss at New Orleans on December 6th just over a week ago.  The Nuggets won their three previous meetings with the Pelicans, including blowout home wins by 32 and 16 points.  They should not be home underdogs here tonight. 

The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Denver is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 Friday games.  The Pelicans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Denver.  Bet the Nuggets Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Grizzlies UNDER 198 

Nothing has changed with the grit ’n grind Memphis Grizzlies this season.  They are still a team that cannot score the ball, but they lay it on the line defensively every night.  Of course, it hurts that they lost their best player in PG Mike Conley, and they are also playing without Wayne Selden and Brandan Wright, and possibly Tyreke Evans tonight. 

The UNDER is 10-4 in Grizzlies last 14 games overall.  They have failed to score more than 95 points in 11 of those 14 games.  But they have given up 100 or fewer in seven of those.  Now they face a tired Hawks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  Don’t expect them to try and get up and down the floor with any kind of tempo tonight. 

The Grizzlies rank 30th in the NBA in pace at 95.7 possessions per game, and they’ll control the tempo playing at home here tonight.  Memphis ranks 27th in offensive efficiency while Atlanta is 21st.  So it will be a slow tempo between two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, which is a perfect recipe for an UNDER. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams.  They have combined for 197 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings.  They are averaging just 186.4 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which is nearly 12 points less than tonight’s posted total of 198.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* Thunder/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -1.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most overrated team in the NBA to this point.  They are just 13-14 SU & 8-18 ATS, including 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS on the road.  They have gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The problem with the Thunder is that in trading for Carmelo Anthony and Paul George, they traded away all their depth.  Their bench is awful, and Anthony has proven to be a cancer in Oklahoma City just like he was in New York. 

The 76ers will be hungry for a victory after losing four of their last five coming in.  They have had two days off to get ready for the Thunder after last playing on Tuesday.  They are almost fully healthy now as the only player they will be missing tonight Is Markelle Fultz.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. 

The 76ers are 20-4 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The 76ers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days’ rest.  Philadelphia is 42-16-1 ATS in its last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been an overvalued commodity this season due to the signing of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague.  They are consistently laying prices that they cannot handle, and I think that’s the case again here tonight as double-digit favorites over the Kings. 

The Timberwolves are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are a mediocre 16-12 SU on the season as well.  They are only outscoring the opposition by 0.6 points per game on the season, including just 2.2 points per game at home.  They aren’t blowing out teams on the regular. 

The Kings have been a nice money-maker for backers over the past three weeks.  They have been flying under the radar, going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have three upset victories during this stretch, including a road win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs. 

The Kings are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Timberwolves, winning twice outright as underdogs.  Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six road games.  The Timberwolves are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Roll with the Kings Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1 

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 11-15 SU & 17-9 ATS while being one of the most profitable teams to back.  Now they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Knicks, and I think they get the job done. 

The Knicks have been a great team to back at home, but a terrible one on the road.  They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS on the highway this season.  They are getting outscored by a whopping 11.8 points per game on the road too, scoring just 97.2 on average and giving up 109.0 per game. 

The Nets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  New York is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Nets Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +11.5 

The Phoenix Suns have been playing without Devin Booker, but they have actually been competitive without him.  They have lost their last three games without him, but they were all by 10 points or less to Washington (by 10), San Antonio (by 3) and Sacramento (by 7). 

I think they get the cover with ease tonight against a Toronto Raptors team that is getting too much respect for its 6-1 run.  But those seven games have come against the lines of Atlanta, Charlotte, Indiana, Phoenix, Memphis, Sacramento and the LA Clippers.  They have feasted on an easy schedule, and they cannot be laying 11.5 points on the road here. 

The Suns simply have the Raptors’ number.  They have gone 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They covered as 14.5-point road dogs in a 13-point loss on December 5th, and they will want revenge just a week later here catching 11.5 points at home. 

The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Suns are 20-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three seasons.  Take the Suns Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5 

The Miami Heat are rested right now, which has led to back-to-back blowout wins over Brooklyn (101-89) in Mexico City and Memphis (107-82) on the road.  The Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight. 

Now they host a Portland Trail Blazers team that has really been struggling.  The Blazers are 0-5 in their last five five games overall despite playing four of those five games at home.  They lost at Golden State on Monday, and it’s always tough to get back up after playing the defending champs.  I certainly don’t like the spot for the Blazers here. 

The Blazers have played their last two games without two key pieces in center Just Nurkic and small forward Maurice Harkless.  Both Nurkic and Harmless are questionable to return tonight.  The Heat have proven they can still play great basketball without Hassan Whiteside, who is expected to be out until the end of December with a bone bruise in his knee. 

The Blazers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss.  The Heat are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Miami is 22-11 ATS off two consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.  Bet the Heat Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +4.5 

The Washington Wizards have played their last eight games without John Wall, who may return Wednesday against Memphis.  But he’s out again tonight, and they are just 4-4 without him.  They shouldn’t be favored on the road here against the Brooklyn Nets. 

The Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 10-15 SU & 16-9 ATS.  They have been competitive in most games.  They have one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and that depth is what is allowing them to hang with teams that they aren’t expected to. 

The Nets also are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  They are averaging 108.6 points per game overall, including 113.7 points per game at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. 

The Nets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Brooklyn is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a loss.  Washington is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Brooklyn is rested and is 48-26 ATS in its last 74 games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  The Nets are a perfect 8-0 ATS versus good offensive teams who score 106 or more points per game this season.  Take the Nets Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +11.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are grossly overrated right now due to winning 14 of their last 15 games overall.  They are being asked to lay big numbers that they just can’t cover consistently.  They are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games despite this recent run of straight up wins. 

Now the Cavs are up against an Atlanta hawks team that has given them fits.  The Hawks are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Cavs this season.  They won 117-115 as 11-point road dogs in Cleveland on November 5th, and only lost 114-121 as 7.5-point home dogs on November 30th.  The Hawks are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Cleveland overall. 

Atlanta comes in flying way under the radar.  The Hawks have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only ATS loss came in a tough spot in a home-and-home situation with the Brooklyn Nets.  They had beaten Brooklyn on the road two nights earlier, then predictably fell flat in the rematch. 

The Cavs could be without Kevin Love tonight, who is questionable.  They are already without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert.  And John Collins could make his return from a shoulder injury tonight for the Hawks. 

Plays against any team (Cleveland) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Cavs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cleveland is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.