20* Heat/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +2.5

The Miami Heat are ready to end this streak of the home team winning every game.  They have been the best team in the Eastern Conference all season.  I trust them to show up tonight and close out this series.  They have the 76ers by the balls right now and will take advantage.

You just don't know what you're going to get from the 76ers on a nightly basis.  Joel Embiid got real banged up in their 120-85 Game 5 blowout loss to the Heat.  He won't be 100%.  James Harden was a no-show and continues to falter in the biggest games.  This is their biggest game of the season, and I don't trust him one bit.  Danny Green is hit or miss as well.

Miami is 21-7 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Heat are 17-6 ATS as underdogs this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are 8-1 UNDER in their nine playoff games this season.  They are scoring 105.2 points per game and allowing 99.0 points per game in the playoffs.  They miss Khris Middleton on offense, but they have been the best defense in the playoffs thus far without him.

The Celtics and Bucks had combined for just 95 points at halftime in Game 4 and were well on their way to yet another under.  But both teams caught fire in the 2nd half, and that was bound to happen eventually.  But that was an aberration, not the norm in this series and for the Bucks in general.

The Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams all season.  They rank 2nd in defensive efficiency.  The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another, and it favors defense.  Also, the Celtics will control the tempo playing at home, which is a preferred slower pace.  The first two games in Boston saw just 190 and 195 combined points.

Normally, a total in an NBA playoff series continues to go down as the series goes on because if favors defense.  But the total was 212 in Game 3 and 213.5 in Game 4.  Now we are getting 214.5 in Game 5.  There's clearly value with the UNDER now.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Celtics last 13 conference semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -5.5

The Phoenix Suns were the best team in the NBA all season.  Nothing has changed now with the Mavericks winning both of their games at home to tie this series at 2-2.  The Suns dominated in Games 1 and 2 at home, and they will dominate in this all-important Game 5 as well.

The Mavericks got all the calls at home in their last two games.  They won't get those calls in Phoenix.  Their role players also won't play nearly as well as they did at home.  The Suns will get better efforts from their role players, and Chris Paul will be pissed off after fouling out in Game 4.  A pissed off Paul is a scary Paul.

Phoenix is a perfect 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a loss as a road favorite.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 15.8 points per game in this spot.  Phoenix is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Miami -3

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They won Games 1 and 2 with ease at home by 14 and 16 points.  Now they went on to lose both games in Philadelphia with the return of Joel Embiid, and all of a sudden nobody likes the Heat anymore.  I do, and I'll take advantage by backing them as only 3-point home favorites in Game 5 after they were 7.5-point favorites in Games 1 and 2 at home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings dating back to the regular season.  The Heat have been tremendous at home this season at 34-12 SU.  They have been the best team in the East all season and I still think they are the best team in the East.  They are one of the most disrespected No. 1 seeds in the history of the NBA.

Miami is 18-8 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Heat are 42-20 ATS in their last 62 playoff games as favorites.  Philadelphia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Miami.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 212

The Milwaukee Bucks are a perfect 8-0 UNDER in all playoff games this season.  They are averaging 104.9 points per game and clearly miss Khris Middleton offensively.  But they are giving up just 96.9 points per game and have been far and away the best defensive team in these playoffs.

The Celtics are scoring 107.6 points per game and giving up 103.7 points per game in the playoffs.  And keep in mind they played the Nets in the first round.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and just got Marcus Smart back from injury, the Defensive Player of the Year.

Few teams are built to slow down Giannis and the Bucks like the Celtics are.  They have Horford, Robert Williams and Grant Williams to throw at him.  They have been defending him with size and as a team.  He doesn't get many easy layups against the Celtics like he does against most teams.

Milwaukee is 17-6 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Celtics last 12 conference semifinals games.  The UNDER is 19-6-2 in Bucks last 27 playoff games as favorites.  These teams have combined for 190, 195 and 204 points in the first three games in this series.   Bet the UNDER 212 in Game 4 Monday.

20* Suns/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

Most NBA playoff series you see the total get lower and lower as the series progresses.  But that's not the case in this series.  Game 1 was set at 214 and Game 4 is set at 214.5.  I think there's value with the UNDER because of it.

They actually adjusted the total up in Game 2 and Game 3 after the first two games went over the total.  But that was an aberration, especially the Suns shooting 64.5% in Game 2.  These teams came back down to earth in Game 3 with a 103-94 victory by the Mavericks and just 197 combined points.

I like the UNDER in this series more in games played in Dallas.  That's because the Mavericks will control the tempo playing at home, and they rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency this season while the Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency.  Game 4 will be played in the half court with the Mavericks controlling the tempo again.

Phoenix is a perfect 10-0 UNDER following a road loss this season.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Suns last 28 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 24-5-1 in Mavericks last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 37-15-1 in Mavericks last 53 home games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings in Dallas.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 213

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks have played in two very low-scoring games in the first two games of this series.  They combined for 190 points in Game 1 and 195 points in Game 2.  Now the total has still been set too high at 213 points in Game 3.

The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another.  That makes points harder to come by and favors defense.  Add to that the fact that both teams have had three days off in between games to get ready for Game 3, and it's safe to say they know each other inside and out.

It's also worth noting that both teams shot pretty well in Game 2 and they still only combined for 195 points.  Boston shot 47.5% from the field and made 20-of-43 (46.5%) from 3-point range, setting a franchise record for 3's made in a playoff game.  The Bucks shot 46.6% as a team.  This game was played at a snail's pace with both teams attempting 80 shots or fewer.  That should be the case again in Game 3.  The Celtics also get a Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to help them out on that end.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks' seven playoff games this season.  They are allowing just 94.9 points per game and have been the best team in the playoffs defensively.  They are scoring just 105.1 points per game, so it's not like they are lighting it up on offense, and they certainly miss Khris Middleton's scoring.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and have been even better when Robert Williams is on the floor, one of the most underrated players in the league due to what he can do defensively.  He stopped Giannis at the rim numerous times in Game 3, and there's not many players who can do that.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Celtics last 11 conference semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Suns/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are in must-win mode in Game 3 at home tonight.  This is the series, and I expect their best effort of it thus far.  That should be enough to win this game outright against the Phoenix Suns, who lost two games to the Pelicans last series.

The Suns aren't going to shoot as good on the road as they did at home in the first two games of this series.  They shot 50.5% in Game 1 and won by 7, then shot a ridiculous 64.5% in Game 2 including 13-of-25 (52%) from 3-point range.  They are coming off basically a perfect game, and that's going to be hard to follow up.

The Mavericks will be the team playing with more intensity tonight, while the Suns relax a little knowing they are up 2-0 in this series and in good shape.  And the atmosphere will be much more difficult for them to handle in front of a hostile Dallas crowd.  Jason Kidd has done a tremendous job of coaching this season, and I expect him to make the proper adjustments for Game 3 tonight to slow down this Phoenix offense.

Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a blowout road loss by 20 points or more.  It is winning by 16.4 points per game in this spot.  The Mavericks are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Mavs UNDER 220.5

There is clearly value with the UNDER in Game 3 tonight when you consider the totals from the first two games of this series.  They were set at 214 for Game 1 and 217 for Game 2.  Now we have a total of 220.5 for Game 3 after the first two games went over the total.

We'll take advantage of this value and back the UNDER.  The Suns aren't going to shoot as well as they have in Phoenix, making 50.5% in Game 1 and then a ridiculous 64.5% in Game 2.  The Mavericks probably can't be expected to shoot as well from 3-point range as they have either.

I like the UNDER more in games played in Dallas in this series.  That's because the Mavericks will control the tempo playing at home, and they rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  They are also 6th in defensive efficiency, while the Suns are 2nd in defensive efficiency and play much slower on the road.  This will be more of a half court game tonight folks.

Dallas is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more.  The UNDER is 17-8-2 in Suns last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings in Dallas.  The UNDER is 23-5-1 in Mavericks last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks showed they could play with the Suns in Game 1 when they lost 114-121 as 5.5-point underdogs.  Now they come back as 6.5-point dogs in Game 2 and I like the value we are getting with them in what has to feel like a must-win for them.

We saw the Suns beat the Pelicans 110-99 in Game 1 and come back and lost 114-125 in Game 2 last series.  I think they will be vulnerable tonight after winning Game 1.  I expect the Mavericks to be the team playing with more intensity being down in this series, and that should be enough to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upset.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Indeed, each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  That fact alone shows you there's value with the Mavericks catching 6.5 points tonight as the Suns have had a hard time putting them away, and the Mavericks simply have no quit in them.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a game where it was outrebounded by 15 or more this season.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 16.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Mavericks are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies nearly pulled the upset over the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 despite not playing anywhere near their best game.  They shot just 41-of-95 (43.2%) from the field while the Warriors shot 45-of-93 (48.4%).  They only lost that game 116-117 and had a chance to win at the buzzer.

Look for the Grizzlies to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 tonight.  This has been a very resilient bunch all season.  In fact, the Grizzlies haven't lost more than two in a row since December, which just goes to show how resilient they are.  Memphis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games following a loss.

The Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS in as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The Grizzlies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Grizzlies are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games overall.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston -4

The Boston Celtics shot 28-of-84 (33.3%) in Game 1.  That's not going to happen again.  There was clearly a rust factor for them after sweeping the Nets and being off since April 25th.  Look for them to be much sharper on offense, and for them to bring that same defensive intensity they have played with all season.

The Celtics held the Bucks to 37-of-90 (41.1%) shooting and just 101 points in Game 1.  If they can do that again in Game 2, they are going to win and cover with ease.  And that's what I expect to see happen here as they guard the Bucks as well as anyone in the NBA, and they get going offensively.

Boston is a perfect 9-0 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 9.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Milwaukee is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.  Boston is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215

The Dallas Mavericks are built for UNDERS.  They rank 30th in the NBA in pace this season at just 97.5 possessions per game.  They are 6th in defensive efficiency as well.  The Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency, which has been the key to all their success this season.

Both the Mavericks and Suns have had three full days to prepare for one another.  I think that is going to favor the defenses.  Both teams have tremendous wing defenders and points will be much harder to come by for both teams than they were in the first round against the Jazz and Pelicans.

Phoenix and Dallas played three times in the regular season and we saw 203, 216 and 210 combined points in those three meetings.  I think there's value with the UNDER 215 in Game 1 of this series based off those results, especially with defensive intensity turned up a notch in the playoffs.

Dallas is 18-4 UNDER in its last 22 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better.  The UNDER is 44-20 in Mavericks last 64 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Suns last seven home games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Monday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies ABC No-Brainer on OVER 221.5

This is a pretty quick turnaround for this series.  The Grizzlies only had one day off in between games and the Warriors had three days off since taking care of the Nuggets.  These teams aren't familiar with one another yet, and I think that favors the offenses in Game 1 today.

After all, these are the two highest-scoring teams in the playoffs thus far.  The Warriors averaged 118 points per game in their five-game series with the Nuggets and have scored at least 118 points in five of their last six games overall.  They are showing how dangerous they can be when healthy offensively.

The Grizzlies averaged 114.7 points per game in their six-game series with the Timberwolves.  We saw a very high-scoring Game 1 in that series that saw 247 combined points and went well OVER the total.  The Warriors combined for 230 points with the Nuggets in Game 1 last series and went OVER the number.

The OVER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 playoff games as underdogs.  The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last six games overall.  This 221.5-point total has been set too low for Game 1.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Grizzlies/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 229

The longer a series goes on the more teams become familiar with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  That has proven to be the case in this series between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves as well.

After combining for 247 points in Game 1, these teams have combined for 220 in Game 2, 199 in Game 3, 237 in Game 4 and 220 in Game 5.  And both teams shot lights out from 3 in that 237-point effort in Game 4 as the Timberwolves were 18-of-36 (50%) and the Grizzlies were 15-of-32 (46.9%).  That's unlikely to happen again.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (Minnesota) - a good offensive team that scores 114-118 PPG against an average defensive team that allows 108-114 PPG) after 42-plus games following a loss by 6 points or less are 32-9 (78%) since 1996.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.

20* Mavs/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209.5

The Dallas Mavericks made some great adjustments in their first three games of this series without Luka Doncic.  They played a much more free-flowing offense and hoisted a ton of 3's.  Both them and the Jazz shot very well in Games 2 and 3 that both went OVER the total.

But Doncic returned in Game 4 and it was slowed down to a snail's pace.  Both teams attempted fewer than 80 shots in a 100-99 victory for Utah and just 199 combined points.  It was more of the same in Game 5 with the Mavs winning 102-77 for just 179 combined points.  This 209.5-point total for Game 6 has been set way too high.

The Mavericks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Jazz rank 22nd in pace.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz are 10th in that same category.  Donovan Mitchell was noticeably limping as he got hurt late in Game 5.  He is expected to play but won't be 100%, and that's going to significantly hamper the Jazz offensively.  Take the UNDER in game 6 Thursday.

15* Suns/Pelicans TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 214.5

It's a miracle Games 3 and 4 in this series went OVER the total.  The UNDER was the right side in Game 3, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 4 as well.  The Pelicans and Suns had combined for 200 points with 2:20 to go in a blowout.  But somehow the backups put up 21 points in that final 2:20 and they finished with 221 combined points.  

I took advantage of an inflated total in Game 5 and cashed the UNDER 215.5 in a game that saw 209 combined points.  Now I'm backing on the UNDER 214.5 for many of the same reasons in Game 6.  The longer a series goes, the more teams become familiar with one another and points get harder to come by.  Points are definitely harder for the Suns to come by without Devin Booker.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (New Orleans) - a poor defensive team that allows 46% shooting or higher, after five straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47% or higher are 26-8 (76.5%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER In Game 6 Thursday.

20* 76ers/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto ML +105

All the pressure is on Doc Rivers, Joel Embiid, James Harden and company.  The 76ers are on the verge of blowing a 3-0 series lead, and if anyone could do it it's Doc.  He is 3-11 in his last 14 close out games including 1-7 in his last eight.  You can tell he's feeling the pressure based off his press conferences, trying to defend himself at all costs.

Realistically, the Raptors should be up 3-2 in this series.  They lost at home in Game 3 despite never trailing in regulation.  They came back with a 110-102 home victory in Game 4 and a 103-88 upset road win in Game 5.  They have all the momentum right now and feel like they are playing on house money.

The loss of Fred VanVleet isn't as big as it's made out to be.  The Raptors are now much longer on the perimeter which is causing the 76ers problems on offense, averaging just 95 points per game in their last two.  Joel Embiid is clearly bothered by his thumb injury, and James Harden just can't be trusted in big games.

The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest.  The Raptors are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Bulls/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 217.5

The Bulls are broken on offense in this series.  They have scored 81, 86 and 95 points in their three losses.  Now they will be without both Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso tonight.  Both of these guys are great at penetrating and finding open teammates, and they will be even more lost on offense without them tonight.

The Bucks aren't exactly blowing the doors off of the Bulls on offense, either.  They are averaging just 108.3 points per game in this series.  They are without Khris Middleton, and the Bulls have done a pretty good job of defending in this series.  Giannis will continue to get his but they have held mostly everyone else in check.

Milwaukee is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 home games following a blowout road win by 20 points or more.  Chicago is 16-4 UNDER vs. division opponents this season.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  The UNDER is 4-0 in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* Pelicans/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

It's a miracle Games 3 and 4 in this series went OVER the total.  The OVER has hit in three consecutive games now, which is why the books haven't adjusted this total as low as it should be tonight.  We'll take advantage and cash in the UNDER.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 3, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 4 as well.  The Pelicans and Suns had combined for 200 points with 2:20 to go in a blowout.  But somehow the backups put up 21 points in that final 2:20 and they finished with 221 combined points.  I have a hard time believing we're gonna get another flurry of points to send this one over the number for a third consecutive game.

Teams become more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  That favors defense and low scoring games.  I fully expect this to be the lowest-scoring game of the entire series as we easily cash this UNDER 215.5 in Game 5.  There's a lot at stake here with the series tied 2-2 and this will become a half court game with points at a premium.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6

I was on the Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 in Game 2 after dropping Game 1 to the Timberwolves.  They delivered with a 124-96 blowout victory.  I'm definitely backing the Grizzlies again here in Game 5 as only 6-point home favorites after dropping Game 4 118-119 as 2.5-point road favorites.  Oddsmakers aren't adjusting enough for the spot for the Grizzlies here.

The Timberwolves shot lights out in Game 4 and still only won by a single point.  They shot 47.3% from the field including 18-of-36 (50%) from 3-point range.  Not to mention, they made a whopping 31 free throws.  They played the perfect game at home in Game 4, but they will be far from perfect on the road in Game 5.

Memphis is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 14-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Memphis is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 home games.  The Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Memphis is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 233

Teams become more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  That favors defense and low scoring games.  There's a lot at stake here with the series tied 2-2 heading into Game 5.  I expect points to be at a premium and for this game to be played at the slowest pace of the entire series thus far.

These teams went well UNDER the number in Games 2 and 3.  The Timberwolves and Grizzlies combined for just 220 points in Game 2 and 199 points in Game 3.  Game 4 was well on the way to another UNDER until a flurry of points in the final minutes.  They had combined for just 218 points with 2:45 to play, but combined for 19 points in that final 2:45 to go over the number and finish with 237 combined points.

Now the books have set the number even higher for Game 5 at 233 points and I think there's tremendous value with the UNDER.  Both teams shot lights out in Game 4 and it's unlikely to happen again.  The Grizzlies shot 15-of-32 (46.9%) from 3-points range and the Timberwolves shot 18-of-36 (50%) from distance, yet they still only managed 237 combined points.  Just a slight drop in shooting for both teams will have us cashing in this UNDER with ease.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Memphis) - after covering two of their last three ATS, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 71-32 (68.9%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Jazz/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 213

The Dallas Mavericks made some great adjustments in their first three games of this series without Luka Doncic.  They played a much more free-flowing offense and hoisted a ton of 3's.  Both them and the Jazz shot very well in Games 2 and 3 that both went OVER the total.

But Doncic returned in Game 4 and it was slowed down to a snail's pace.  Both teams attempted fewer than 80 shots in a 100-99 victory for Utah and just 199 combined points.  This game will be played at a snail's pace as well with Doncic back and what's at stake in Game 5 with this series tied 2-2 heading back to Dallas.

The Mavericks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Jazz rank 22nd in pace.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz are 10th in that same category.  Utah attempted 42 free throws and still managed just 100 points last game.  The Mavericks have them locked down defensively right now.

The UNDER is 11-3 in Jazz last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 47-20-1 in Mavericks last 68 home games.  Take the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

20* Raptors/76ers NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +7.5

The Toronto Raptors played two great games in Toronto and really this series should be tied 2-2.  But the 76ers won Game 3 despite not leading a single second in regulation.  And in Game 4 they failed to close out the series when they had the Raptors by the balls.

I think the 76ers are going to regret not closing it out, and the Raptors are live underdogs in Game 5 tonight as 7.5-point dogs.  The FT shooting disparity that gave the 76ers a 2-0 series lead has gone away, and the Raptors have gotten much more aggressive in attacking the rim the past two games.

Joel Embiid is nursing a thumb injury that he is playing through, but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4.  We've seen Doc Rivers and James Harden collapse in playoff series previously.  All the pressure is on the 76ers to close this out in Game 5 and the Raptors feel like they are free rolling at this point after being down 3-0.  They should come out loose while the 76ers will be tight tonight.

Philadelphia has beaten Toronto by more than 7 points just twice in the last 16 meetings, making for a 14-2 system backing the Raptors pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors in Game 5 Monday.

20* Suns/Pelicans TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216

The Suns and Pelicans have gone OVER the total in each of their last two games after going UNDER in Game 1.  I think we are getting value with the UNDER in Game 4 based off of the results in the last two games.  This total should be set much lower than 216 tonight.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 2, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

Game 3 was played at a snail's pace and that will be the case again for Game 4.  The Suns just aren't as explosive on offense without their best player in Devin Booker, and they have to go to more of a half court game.  The Pelicans don't have great 3-point shooting and settle for a lot of mid-range jumpers, which makes them a great UNDER candidate.  They also rank just 21st in pace and 20th in offensive efficiency.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Heat/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 tonight after blowing a double-digit lead in Game 3 in the 4th quarter and letting the Hawks back in this series.  Look for them to shut the door here and get a win and cover in Game 4.

I made the mistake of backing a team that doesn't rebound or play defense in the Nets yesterday.  I'm not making the same mistake today.  The Hawks rank 26th in defensive efficiency while the Heat rank 5th in defensive efficiency.  I'll back the better defensive team here in a game they basically just have to win to cover.

Atlanta is 1-11 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season.  Miami is 17-4 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Miami is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Heat are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 playoff games as favorites.  The Hawks are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.  Miami is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Heat Sunday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets gave the Boston Celtics all they could handle in Games 1 and 2 in Boston.  Now they are in must-win mode here in Game 3 at home and I expect them to get the win and cover.  It was a hostile atmosphere in Boston with all the controversy surrounding Kyrie Irving and they actually handled themselves pretty well.

It will be a much more friendly atmosphere in Brooklyn this time around, and I expect the Nets' role players to answer the bell here to help out Irving and Kevin Durant.  Durant has been disappointing through two games in this series, but he has too much pride to come up short again.  

He went 4-of-17 in Game 2 and 9-of-24 in Game 1.  That's a combined 13-of-41 (31.7%) through two games.  It's amazing that the Nets had a chance to win both of those games in the closing seconds with Durant playing that poorly.  Look for him to have a monster game to lead the Nets to victory and save their season here tonight.

Brooklyn is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Boston.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* 76ers/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors in Game 4 tonight.  They were 4.5-point road dogs in Game 1, 7.5-point road dogs in Game 2 and 2-point home dogs in Game 3.  They went 0-3 ATS and now are getting their best price of the series as 3.5-point home dogs in Game 4.

Note that they were 4.5-point road dogs at full strength.  They will be at full strength here with the return of Scottie Barnes and are 3.5-point home dogs.  That's a massive adjustment and one that I'll gladly take advantage of.  The Raptors are much better than they have shown in the first three games of this series.

Keep in mind the 76ers didn't lead Game 3 until overtime, so the Raptors were in control of that game even without Barnes.  Getting him back with give them a big offensive punch.  The 76ers will be without Matisse Thybulle, and his defensive presence will be felt.  Joel Embiid is also dealing with a sore thumb, though he's expected to play.

Toronto is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Philadelphia is 9-18 ATS off a road win this season.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 trips to Toronto.  Take the Raptors Saturday.

20* Suns/Pelicans ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -1

The Phoenix Suns have proven all season that they can win games without Chris Paul and/or Devin Booker.  They won't blink with Booker being out now as they are one of the deepest teams in the entire NBA and work together as a team as well as anyone.

The Suns go from being 10-point favorites in Game 1 to 9.5-point favorites in Game 2 to only 1-point favorites in Game 3.  This is too big of an adjustment for the Booker injury and the home-court advantage for the Pelicans.  The Suns are 32-9 SU on the road this season.

I'm confident the Suns will make the defensive adjustments and the Pelicans will not shoot as well as they did in Game 2.  They shot 54.8% from the field and a ridiculous 17-of-30 (56.7%) from 3-point range.  This is a poor shooting Pelicans team that is only making 33.5% from 3 on the season.

Phoenix is 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more more this season.  The Suns are 14-3 ATS when revenging any loss this season.  Phoenix is 14-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to New Orleans.

Plays against home underdogs (New Orleans) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog with a losing record on the season are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 210.5

The Dallas Mavericks rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season.  They rank dead last in pace (30th) this season and prefer to slow it down to a snail's pace.  The Jazz are 10th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so they are built for UNDERS as well.  Plus they have the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert locking down the paint.

The total was 208 for Game 1 and these teams combined for just 192 points.  The total was 207 for Game 2 and they combined for 214 points.  This total has been set higher after that Game 2 performance and with the anticipation that Luka Doncic may return.  Even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100% with that calf injury.

It's going to be hard to see the Mavericks shoot as well as they did in Game 2 where they shot 22-of-47 (46.8%) from 3-point range.  The Jazz weren't bad themselves as they shot 11-of-29 (37.9%) from distance.  Each of the first two games in this series were played at snail's paces, and I think that will be the case in Game 3 again, so I'll take my chances with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 43-19 in Mavericks last 62 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 23-11-1 in Jazz last 35 games as favorites.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Jazz last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Bulls/Bucks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls in Game 2 of this series.  They were disinterested down the stretch and as a result went 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games.  They were pretty much locked into the 5th or 6th seed at that point with nothing to play for.

The Bulls played with a sense of urgency in Game 1 and showed they could hang with the Bucks, losing  86-93 as 10.5-point underdogs.  What really stood out in that game is how poorly the Big 3 of Chicago in Vucevic, DeRozan and LaVine shot the ball and they still only lost by 7.  Those 3 combined to shoot just 21-of-71 (29.6%) from the floor and 4-of-22 (18.2%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that poorly again, which makes it likely they cover this 10-point spread.

Milwaukee likely thinks they can just show up and win after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls in the regular season.  That places the Bulls in major revenge mode here.  Also two of those wins and covers came at the end of the season when the Bucks had a lot more to play for in terms of seeding than the Bulls did.  The first two meetings this season were close and decided by 4 and 6 points, similar to the 7-point margin in Game 1 of this series when both teams were 'all in'.

Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Milwaukee.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +2

I love the Toronto Raptors tonight in this must-win situation.  They return home after losing two disappointing, non-competitive games against the 76ers in Philadelphia.  Home-court advantage and coaching adjustment will make all the difference for the Raptors in Game 3 as they win this game outright.

Everything has gone perfect for the 76ers thus far in this series.  They shot 51.2% as a team, 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range and 29-of-34 (85.3%) from the FT line in Game 1.  They followed that up with 52.2% shooting, 14-of-30 (64.7%) from 3-point range and 26-of-30 (86.7%) from the FT line in Game 2.

The 76ers are shooting better than the Raptors in this series from 3-point range, and they have attempted 64 FT compared to 35 for the Raptors and made 55 FT compared to 29 for the Raptors.  That has been the difference.  I highly doubt the whistle will go so much in favor of the 76ers in Toronto like it has in Philadelphia in this series.  The 76ers won't have SG Mattisse Thybulle for this one, arguably their best defender.

Toronto is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following two straight losses by 15 points or more.  The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs.  a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Toronto is 4-0 ATS In its last four games as a home underdog.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight after getting upset in Game 1.  A lot went right for the Timberwolves in that contest as they scored 130 points and shot 50% as a team, went 16-of-41 (39%) from 3-point range and 24-of-27 (88.9%) from the FT line.

Things couldn't have gone much worse for the Grizzlies, who shot 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range and missed 11 free throws.  They will be much sharper offensively in Game 2, and I look for the Timberwolves to take a step back offensively.  Minnesota won't be able to match Memphis' intensity in this one, either.

Memphis won by 7 and 8 points in its first two home meetings with Minnesota this season.  I look for the Grizzlies to win by 7-plus points again here to cover this 6.5-point spread, and actually expect them to win by double-digits in a rout.

Memphis is 19-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The Grizzlies are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  Memphis is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 home meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 206.5

Having no Luka Doncic is going to significantly hamper the Dallas Mavericks on offense in this series.  But they showed earlier this season they could be competitive without him by playing lockdown defense.  And I expect that to be the case in this series, thus I'm taking the UNDER in Game 2 again Monday after cashing in the UNDER in Game 1 in a 99-93 final for just 192 combined points.

The Mavericks rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season and are an even better defensive team without Doncic.  They rank dead last in pace (30th) this season and will control the tempo playing at home, slowing it down to a snail's pace.  The Jazz are 10th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so they are built for UNDERS as well.  Plus they have the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert locking down the paint.

Dallas is 9-1 UNDER In home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Mavericks are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight home games after a combined score of 195 points or less.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 games as road favorites.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Jazz last 13 road games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.  The UNDER is 47-19-1 in Mavericks last 67 home games.  Take the UNDER in Game 2 Monday.

20* Raptors/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +7.5

This is too big of an adjustment from Game 1 to Game 2 in this series.  The Raptors go from being 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 to 7.5-point dogs in Game 2.  I realize Scottie Barnes is out, but he's not worth 3 points to the spread.

The 76ers played the perfect Game 1 as their role players crushed it and they shot 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that well again.  The Raptors are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and underrated head coach Nick Nurse will make the proper adjustments to make them much more competitive in Game 2.

That was a rare blowout in this series.  In fact, each of the previous eight games between the 76ers and Raptors were decided by 7 points or less.  Toronto has only lost one of its last 13 games against Philadelphia by more than 7 points, which makes for a 12-1 system backing the Raptors pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Monday.

20* Bulls/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Chicago +11

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 of this series.  They were disinterested down the stretch and as a result went 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games.  They were pretty much locked into the 5th or 6th seed at that point with nothing to play for.

Now the Bulls will come back with an inspired effort in Game 1 to prove they can play with the defending champs.  I don't see the Bucks playing with that same sense of urgency in these playoffs as they did last year when they won the title.  And that starts to show in Game 1 tonight.

Milwaukee likely thinks they can just show up and win after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls in the regular season.  That places the Bulls in major revenge mode here.  Also two of those wins and covers came at the end of the season when the Bucks had a lot more to play for in terms of seeding than the Bulls did.  The first two meetings this season were close and decided by 4 and 6 points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Chicago) - playing with triple revenge and on three or more days' rest are 49-21 (70%) ATS since 1996.  The Bulls are fully healthy now with the exception of Lonzo Ball and ready to get back to how they were playing in the first half of the season.  Bet the Bulls in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Jazz/Mavericks ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 210

Having no Luka Doncic is going to significantly hamper the Dallas Mavericks on offense in this series.  But they showed earlier this season they could be competitive without him by playing lockdown defense.  And I expect that to be the case in this series, thus I'm taking the UNDER in Game 1 Saturday.

I also like the fact that this is an early game with a 1:00 EST tip as both teams aren't familiar with playing games this early in the day.  I don't expect either team to be clicking offensively.  The Jazz are a dynamite defensive team when Rudy Gobert is on the court, and he is healthy for the playoffs now.

The Mavericks rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season and are an even better defensive team without Doncic.  They rank dead last in pace (30th) this season and will control the tempo playing at home, slowing it down to a snail's pace.  The Jazz are 10th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so they are built for UNDERS as well.

Dallas is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 11-1-1 in Jazz last 13 games following a SU win by more than 10 points.  The UNDER Is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 road games.  The UNDER is 46-19-1 in Mavericks last 66 home games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Dallas.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pelicans/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3.5

Note: Tough break on Paul George being out with COVID.  I still like the Clippers to win the game straight up.  The current line after the news is roughly PK and I would still recommend a bet at or around that number.

The Los Angeles Clippers were playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into their play-in game with the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games of the regular season where they got both Paul George and Norman Powell back from injury.

For 3.5 quarters, the Clippers had the Timberwolves by the balls.  But things changed after Karl-Anthony Towns went out.  The Clippers blew a double-digit lead as the Timberwolves went small ball and switched everything on defense, which the Clippers struggled with.  They will make the proper adjustments, and there is a good chance they get Luke Kennard back from injury to provide a shooting punch.

The Clippers just beat the Pelicans 119-100 at home on April 3rd as 2-point favorites.  That was an important result because both teams were at full strength, which they are now too.  Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas all played for the Pelicans and all three struggled, combining to go 14-of-35 from the floor for just 44 points.  The Clippers had seven players score in double figures in the win.

The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA and I trust him to make the right moves to put the Clippers in position to win and cover this game and advance as the #8 seed in the playoffs.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans ESPN No-Brainer on San Antonio +6

The San Antonio Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 7-4 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  This despite being locked into their playoff spot for a few games and playing backups and resting guys.

The Spurs have really shown off their depth here down the stretch.  They have just one loss by more than 6 points in their last 11 games.  Now they are as healthy as they have been all season with the only guy they are missing being Doug McDermott, who is a defensive liability anyway.

The Pelicans are getting too much credit for how they played down the stretch.  But their last five wins all came against non-playoff teams in the Lakers (twice), Blazers (twice) and Kings.  They lost by 19 points or more to the three playoff teams they played in their final eight games.

The Spurs have owned the Pelicans in this head-to-head series this season.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with two outright road wins as 6-point road underdogs, which is what they are in this play-in game as well.  Both of those wins have come since mid-February including a win on March 26th in New Orleans.

The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  San Antonio is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  San Antonio is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Spurs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven trips to New Orleans.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the No. 1 ranked team in offensive efficiency since January 1st.  They have been tough to tame when Russell, Towns and Edwards have been healthy.  In fact, they are fully healthy heading into the playoffs and will be a dangerous out for anyone.  This is a much deeper team than they get credit for.

The Clippers are getting a lot of respect after winning five straight games to close out the season.  But only one of those five opponents was actually trying to win the game, and that was the Pelicans.  Four of the wins came at home and the other was a road win over the Bucks' backups.  These five wins have given bettors false hope on this team.

Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Timberwolves are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  It's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at the Target Center in Minneapolis tonight as these fans have been yearning for a winner for years and they absolutely love this team, and for good reason.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* Cavaliers/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets cannot be trusted laying this big of a number at home.  They don't play defense, so asking them to win by 10-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  I'll gladly take the value with the Cleveland Cavaliers catching 9.5 points in this play-in game.

All four games between the Cavaliers and Nets this season went down to the wire and were decided by 11 points or fewer.  I expect more of the same here in their 5th meeting, and for the Cavaliers to shoot much better than the 29.6% (8-of-27) they shot from 3 in their final meeting of the regular season.

The Cavaliers are 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games following an ATS win.  The Nets are 6-26-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Brooklyn is a woeful 3-23 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite.  Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -9

The Dallas Mavericks are still playing for seeding.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three of the six wins coming against playoff teams.  The six wins have come by an average of 19 points per game.

Now they host a San Antonio Spurs team that has nothing to play for and is locked into the 10th seed in the West.  They will be traveling to face New Orleans in the play-in round on Wednesday.  They are more concerned with resting their players and getting them healthy rather than winning this game.  That's especially the case playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 94-100 home loss to the Warriors last night.

The Mavericks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  Dallas is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  Expect them to roll by double-digits tonight and cover this number.  Take the Mavericks Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -17

The Utah Jazz still have seeding at stake in the West.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the Portland Trail Blazers, who have been blown out on a regular basis and are openly tanking.  Their numbers down the stretch are mind-blowing.

The Blazers are 2-20 SU & 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  A whopping 10 of those losses have come by 30 points or more, and 14 of those losses by 17 points or more.  They lost to the Mavericks by 50 and the Pelicans by 33 in their last two games coming in.

One of those 30-plus point losses came a month ago to the Jazz as they lost 85-123 as 19.5-point road underdogs.  It should be more of the same in the rematch here a month later as nothing has change for the Blazers, and the Jazz still have something to play for.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -5.5

The San Antonio Spurs don't care about winning this game.  That's evident by the fact that they are resting each of their top four scorers in Murray, Johnson, Poeltl and Vassell.  They will also be without Doug McDermott, so they'll be without five of their top six scorers.

The Golden State Warriors are trying to fend off the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 3 seed in the West.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Mavericks.  It's evident the Warriors have been playing with a sense of urgency down the stretch in going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  

Golden State is trying to win this game, and thus I'm willing to lay the 5.5 points on the road with them against a Spurs team that couldn't care less.  San Antonio is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after playing a road game at Golden State Thursday night.  They are likely to continue to rest LeBron, Davis and Westbrook and now their lack of depth makes this an even worse spot for them.

One thing you can't say about the Oklahoma City Thunder is that they don't play hard night in and night out.  They have been banged up all season and yet have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA in going 49-29-2 ATS.  They have gone 4-4 SU in their last eight games overall so they are trying to win games here down the stretch.

Asking the woeful Lakers to win by double-digits to beat us here is asking too much.  The Thunder are 27-9 ATS in their last 36 road games.  The Lakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. at eam with a losing record.  Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.  Take the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Bulls OVER 227.5

The books have set the bar too low for this game between the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets tonight.  These are two great OVER teams, especially the Hornets.  They rank 4th in pace, 10th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency.  The Bulls rank 11th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency.

These teams have played twice already this season and both were shootouts that went OVER this total.  They combined for 252 points in their first meeting and 230 points in their second meeting.  It should be more of the same here with both teams almost at full strength.

The Bulls have really been poor defensively here down the stretch.  They have allowed 117, 127, 127 and 130 points in their last four games overall.  The Hornets haven't been much better, allowing 113 or more points in four of their last five, including 144 points twice in regulation.  But they have scored 114 or more points in four straight now.

Chicago is 11-2 OVER in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  The Bulls are 12-3 OVER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Charlotte is 48-28 OVER in its last 76 road games with a total of 220 to 229.5.  The OVER is 5-1 in Hornets last six road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +3.5

Due to losses by the 76ers and Celtics Thursday night, the Miami Heat clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference without even having to play.  It's safe to say the Heat are going to play it cautiously now over the final two games this season and likely rest their starters after achieving their goal of the No. 1 seed.

The Atlanta Hawks still have a lot to play for.  The 7th through 10th seeds in the East are all separated by two games or less.  It is important to get the 7th or 8th seeds so they don't have to win two games, which the 9th and 10th will have to do.  They are currently 9th and tied with the Nets for 8th and one game behind the Cavaliers for 7th.

The Hawks were disappointing most of the regular season, but they have picked up their play here down the stretch.  Indeed, the Hawks are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to the Raptors.  They are in playoff mode right now and should not be underdogs to the Heat given what's at stake for both teams.  Take the Hawks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +14.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly gone 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost any of their last eight games by more than 13 points, and only once have they been beaten by more than 7 points.  They continue to show up every night and compete.

That's important when backing a team that's catching 14.5 points.  And the spot couldn't be much worse for the Raptors.  They are coming off a huge 119-114 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Four starters played at least 37 minutes last night against the 76ers.  Don't be surprised to see some of these starters rest tonight.

Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Detroit Pistons are 19-1 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs with 10 outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching too many points against the Milwaukee Bucks at home tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons have only lost one of their last 24 games by more than 11 points, and only two losses by more than 9 points.  They have lost just two of their last 19 games by more than 7 points.

The Pistons will be excited to face the defending champs in their final home game of the season.  The Bucks won't be excited for this game, and they will be running on fumes, too.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a huge 127-121 home win over the Celtics last night.  

This game screams letdown spot, and don't be surprised to see the Bucks rest almost all their starters given the difficult rest spot.  The Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on zero rest.  The Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* Lakers/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Golden State -12.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  They are ready for this disastrous season to be over.  They will be sitting LeBron James and likely Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook tonight.  I give them almost zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors still have a lot to play for.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the 3rd seed in the Western Conference.  They are playing well pulling the upset of the Jazz before crushing the Kings 109-90 on the road.  Now they come in on three days' rest fresh and ready to go tonight.

The Lakers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  The Warriors are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles PK

Despite not having much to play for, the Los Angeles Clippers are trying to form some chemistry and momentum heading into the playoffs.  That is evident by the fact that they have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing four playoff teams.

They beat the Jazz 121-115 at home, lost 130-135 (OT) at Chicago in a game they led the entire way until overtime, crushed the Bucks 153-119 on the road and crushed the Pelicans 119-100 at home.  They want to form chemistry with Paul George recently returning from injury.  And they are fresh and ready to go tonight playing on two days' rest having last played on Sunday.

The Suns are not fresh and don't care about winning these last few games.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 121-110 home win over the LeBron-less Lakers last night.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their previous two games showed they don't care about winning since they are already locked in to the No. 1 seed.  They lost outright 114-122 at Memphis as 7.5-point favorites and followed it up with a 96-117 outright loss as 14-point favorites at Oklahoma City.  

The Suns can't be trusted to show up right now, and they could rest a bunch of guys in this 2nd of a back-to-back.  Los Angeles is 19-9 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 11-3 ATS in the last 14 home meetings.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Bulls OVER 221.5

The Boston Celtics recently lost C Robert Williams to a knee injury.  He was the backbone of their defense even though Marcus Smart gets all the credit.  Since his loss, the Celtics have had to play more small ball and the results have made them an offensive juggernaut and an OVER machine.

Indeed, the OVER is 7-1 in Celtics last eight games overall.  They have combined for 222 or more points with their opponents in eight of their last nine games overall.  They have scored at least 124 points in seven of their last nine games.  They are allowing 111.6 points per game and 48.4% shooting in their last five games so the loss of Williams has hurt defensively.

The OVER is 3-0 in Bulls last three games overall.  They combined for 265 points with the Clippers, 236 points with the Heat and 233 points with the Bucks.  This has been a high-scoring series this season with the Bulls and Celtics combining for 242 and 226 points in their two meetings.

Chicago is 11-1 OVER in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Celtics last 51 games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls last five games following a double-digit home loss.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 19-0 ATS in their last 19 games as underdogs with 10 outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 8.5 points against the Dallas Mavericks at home tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 23 games by more than 11 points, and only one loss by more than 9 points.  They have lost just one of their last 19 games by more than 7 points, making for an 18-1 system pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have a way of playing to their level of competition.  That was evident in their lone loss during this stretch when they were blasted 103-135 at Washington as 7.5-point road favorites.

Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  They have played up to their level of competition for over a month.  They will be excited about this opportunity on the National TV stage on ESPN and will continue playing their best basketball of the season to stay within this number and possibly pull off yet another upset.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Suns NBA TV No-Brainer on Los Angeles +12

The Los Angeles Lakers should not be catching 12 points against the Phoenix Suns given the discrepancy in motivation.  The Lakers are in must-win mode if they want to make the playoffs and took the Nuggets to the wire last time out even without LeBron James.

The Phoenix Suns are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the West and have absolutely nothing to play for.  That has showed in their level of play the last two games.  They lost outright 114-122 at Memphis as 7.5-point favorites and followed it up with an outright 96-117 loss as 14-point favorites at short-handed Oklahoma City.  Why would they show up tonight?  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season trying to make the playoffs here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Spurs should not be catching 9.5 points against the Denver Nuggets with how well they are playing right now.  This game means a lot more to the Spurs than it does the Nuggets.  This is a Denver team that has been overvalued for weeks, going just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

San Antonio is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Spurs are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games as road underdogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  San Antonio is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 trips to Denver.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Timberwolves OVER 237.5

Two great OVER teams square off tonight when the Washington Wizards visit the Minnesota Timberwolves.  This game should see 240-plus combined points with ease tonight to cash this OVER ticket.

The Timberwolves are coming off two massive shootouts with 266 combined points against Denver and 271 combined points against Houston.  They have allowed 125 or more points in five of their last six games overall and are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  

The Wizards have gone OVER the total in three straight, combining for 237 points with Orlando, 238 points with Dallas and 246 points with Boston.  Both Boston and Dallas are not over teams as they are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA.

Minnesota is 20-3 OVER in its last 23 games after allowing 130 points or more last game.  The Timberwolves are 16-2 OVER in their last 18 games vs. teams that make 46% of their shots or better.  The OVER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.  The OVER is 8-0 in Timberwolves last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +17.5

The Brooklyn Nets shouldn't be favored by 17 points over anyone.  They have been disappointing down the stretch despite having both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving healthy.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming by 7 points over the Detroit Pistons as 14-point home favorites.

The problem with the Raptors right now is they have key injuries to their role players.  Seth Curry, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic and James Johnson are all on the injury report.  Without being at full strength, the Nets are going to have a problem putting away the Rockets by 18-plus points to cover this number.

Houston has quietly gone 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall and has not packed it in.  The Rockets haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points.  That includes a 7-point loss to the Timberwolves as 13.5-point underdogs last time out.

Brooklyn is a woeful 5-24-1 ATS in its last 30 home games, including 4-23 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite.  The Nets can't be laying 17.5 points here.  Take the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Pacers OVER 233

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 255 points with the Hawks, 243 points with the Nuggets, 251 points with the Celtics and 238 points with the Pistons.

The Pacers play at a fast place and play zero defense, which has been the case for Rick Carlisle-coached teams for a few years now.  The Pacers have allowed 121 or more points in six consecutive games.  The 76ers will oblige as they recently put up 144 points against the Hornets.

Indiana is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 36-17 in Pacers last 53 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -14

The Portland Trail Blazers are openly tanking.  They are 2-16 SU & 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall with eight losses by 30 points or more and 12 losses by 14 points or more.  They have nine players on the injury report that are out, plus they traded away McCollum, Powell and Covington.

The San Antonio Spurs are battling with the Los Angeles Lakers for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They have come up clutch down the stretch in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 133-96 win at Portland on March 23rd and a 130-111 home win over Portland on April 1st.

I like knowing that the Spurs won't be taking the Blazers lightly given what's at stake for them, which is why I'm willing to lay this big of a number.  It should be more of the same here with yet another win by 15-plus points to cover this number.  Roll with the Spurs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5

The New York Knicks have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  They played like it yesterday in their 101-119 upset home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Now they'll have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back with eight players on the injury report.  They shut down Julius Randle for the season.

The Magic aren't playing great, but the spot favors them and they shouldn't be 5-point home underdogs to a Knicks team that doesn't care about wins and is tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This is their most winnable game left on the schedule and I fully expect them to take advantage.

Orlando is 14-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss.  New York is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Magic Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer Los Angeles +3

It's now or never for the Los Angeles Lakers if they want to make the playoffs.  LeBron James, Anthony Davis and company have too much pride to go away quietly.  I think we are getting the Lakers are one of their best values of the season as home underdogs to the Denver Nuggets tonight.

This is an inconsistent Nuggets team that doesn't deserve to be favored on the road here.  The Nuggets are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have not done well when they have stepped up in class, and they have narrow wins over some bad teams recently in the Thunder, Hornets and Pacers.

The Lakers have lost five straight coming in, but all five were to playoff contenders in the 76ers, Pelicans (twice), Mavericks and Jazz.  And they didn't have AD and LeBron for any of those games except the 3-point loss to the Pelicans.  They will have better chemistry in their 2nd game back together, and they should pull the upset today at home to stay alive for the playoffs.

Denver is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after four straight games where it had five or more rebounds than its opponent.  The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Los Angeles.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Warriors UNDER 218

The Golden State Warriors have been struggling offensively without Stephen Curry.  They have averaged just 103.4 points per game in their last eight games overall.  But they are still a pretty good defensive team with Draymond Green and company, ranking 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The Utah Jazz are a much better defensive team with Rudy Gobert healthy, and he is right now.  I think this game will be like a playoff game with the Warriors trying to hang on to home-court advantage in the first round, and the Jazz trying to get it.  They are two games behind the Warriors and 1.5 games behind the Mavericks for the 3rd and 4th seeds.

This has been a low-scoring series in recent meetings.  Indeed, these teams have met twice since January 23rd.  The Warriors won 94-92 at home for just 186 combined points.  The Jazz got their revenge with a 111-85 home win and only 196 combined points on February 9th.  This will be their 4th and final meeting, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

Golden State is 9-1 UNDER in home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Jazz last 11 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last eight games as road favorites.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Nuggets UNDER 242

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a couple injuries that have quietly hurt them offensively.  They are without Jaden McDaniels and Malik Beasley, two role players that were huge for them making this surge in the second half.  The Timberwolves have now scored 116 or fewer points in five consecutive games.

Denver prefers to play at a slower pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The Nuggets rank 20th in the NBA in pace this season.  Both teams are in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency as well.

Head-to-head history says there's value with the UNDER.  Five of the last six meetings between the Nuggets and Timberwolves have seen 239 or fewer combined points.  This will be the 4th and final meeting between these teams, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

This total has been bet up from 233.5 all the way up to 242, so there's value with the UNDER based on the line move, too.  I also like the fact that both teams will be playing with defensive intensity tonight as the Timberwolves are trying to chase down the Nuggets for the 6th seed in the West.  This is a meaningful game, and both teams will treat it like a playoff game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls right now.  They have gone through their worst stretch of the season over the past month.  But they are now as healthy as they have been all season with only Lonzo Ball being out.  And they have shown they can play well without him.

The Clippers are getting too much respect due to getting Paul George back and completing a huge comeback to beat the Utah Jazz at home on Tuesday.  They had gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous five games overall.

The key here is the Bulls are the more motivated team.  They have a lot more to play for sitting in the 5th spot trying to move up to 4th or at least avoid falling into the play-in round.  The Clippers are essentially locked in to the 8th seed in the West, 5.5 games behind 7th seed Minnesota and 4 games ahead of 9th seed New Orleans.  They really don't have anything to play for until the playoffs.

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  Chicago is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite.  The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 17-0 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 10 points against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 20 games by more than 11 points, and only one loss by more than 9 points.  That makes for a 19-1 system backing the Pistons pertaining to this 10-point spread.

Philadelphia just played two of the best teams in the NBA and the two teams that made the NBA Finals in the Suns and Bucks in back-to-back games.  They came up short in both, and now they'll have a hard time getting motivated to face the Pistons after losing to those two.  This is also a tired Philadelphia team playing their 11th game in 19 days.  Take the Pistons Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -13.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are openly tanking.  They are 2-14 SU & 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall with eight losses by 30 points or more and 11 losses by 14 points or more.  They have nine players on the injury report that are out, plus they traded away McCollum, Powell and Covington.

The Pelicans are fighting to make the playoffs right now as they are currently 9th in the West just one game ahead of the Spurs and Lakers.  One of those three teams will not make the playoffs, and the Pelicans are playing with a sense of urgency right now that has them playing some of their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Pelicans are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  They beat the Spurs by 33, upset the Hawks on the road, beat the Bulls by 17 at home and beat the Lakers by 8 at home.  They just got Brandon Ingram back from injury and his addition will make them a dangerous team moving forward.  Former Blazer McCollum will not be taking this game lightly, and neither will his teammates given what's at stake.

Portland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after allowing 130 points or more.  The Blazers are 1-9 ATS following a loss by 6 points or less this season.  The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Blazers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +5.5

The Miami Heat put their differences aside and crushed Sacramento 123-100 at home on Monday.  They realize they are in 1st place in the East with three teams within 1.5 games of them.  They have a great opportunity to get home-court advantage down the stretch, and I look for them to put it all on the line tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Heat after going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Heat want revenge from two blowout losses to the Celtics in their two meetings this season.  They won't have to deal with Robert Williams, who suffered a meniscus tear two games ago and is one of the more underrated players in the league.  The Celtics will take a big hit defensively without his presence moving forward.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 road games after losing three of its last four games coming in.  The Heat are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Miami is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 trips to Boston.  It will be good for them to get on the road and get away from the distractions at home here.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +3.5

The Orlando Magic are 7-9 SU & 9-7 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have not packed it in.  They have been competitive in most their losses during this stretch.  This is a favorable spot for them playing just their 3rd game in 7 days as they will be rested and ready to go.

The same cannot be said for the Wizards, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 94-107 home loss to the Chicago Bulls last night.  The Wizards will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA today.  They should not be favored over the Magic given this terrible rest spot for them.

Orlando is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover five or six of its last seven ATS this season.  The Magic are 19-9 ATS in road games when revenging a loss this season.  Washington is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a favorite.  The Wizards are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Orlando is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Washington.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +14

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 16-0 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 14 points against the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 19 games by more than 11 points, making for a 19-0 system backing them pertaining to this 14-point spread.

The Nets don't have a lot to play for here down the stretch.  They are basically going to be anywhere from the 7 seed to the 10 seed to where they have to play in the play-in round no matter what.  Of course, it's beneficial for them to get the 7 or the 8 over the 9 or the 10, but I don't think they will be playing with an extra sense of urgency.

The Nets are 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Brooklyn is 5-23 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Pistons are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Rockets OVER 234

The way the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets play usually results in a shootout.  For starters, the Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Spurs rank 4th, so this game is sure to be a barn burner with both teams getting up and down the floor.

Neither team likes to play defense, either.  The Rockets rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Spurs rank 20th in that same category.  But both teams have trended under the total recently with the Rockets going 6-0 their last six and the Spurs 4-0 their last four, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.

This will be the 4th meeting between the Spurs and Rockets this season and each of the first three have gone OVER this 234-point total.  They combined for 252, 238 and 237 points in those three meetings.  It should be more of the same here in another shootout.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls after going 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I cashed them outright as underdogs at Cleveland on Saturday, and I'm back on them again here Monday as only 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Knicks.

While the Bulls had yesterday off and are fully healthy with the exception of Lonzo Ball, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls after a 104-102 road win at Detroit yesterday and now having to travel back to New York.

It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Knicks, who have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.  That's why they are getting some respect here with such a short number.  But the Bulls are far and away the better team and in the much better spot.  Chicago also has a lot more to play for in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Chicago is 18-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  New York is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a win.  The Knicks are 2-13 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Bulls are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as favorites.  New York is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games, including 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +13

The Miami Heat are falling apart at the seams.  They got in a big argument on the sidelines in their 104-118 upset loss at 10-point favorites to Golden State.  Then they came back and blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, getting outscored 38-13 to close to lose 103-111 to the New York Knicks as 9.5-point home favorites.

The Heat went on to lost 95-110 at home to the Nets and that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would suggest as they trailed by 28 entering the 4th quarter.  The Heat are now 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and cannot be trusted right now to lay this big of a number to the Sacramento Kings given their chemistry issues.

The Kings have quietly been a money maker down the stretch and have flexed their depth without Fox and Sabonis.  Sacramento is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The last three games have been very impressive.  They took Phoenix to OT in a 3-point home loss as 8-point dogs, upset Indiana on the road as 6-point dogs and upset the Magic on the road as 2.5-point dogs.

Sacramento is rested and ready to go playing just its 3rd game in 8 days tonight.  Miami will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Heat are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Kings are 49-33 ATS in their last 82 games as road underdogs, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games in this role.  The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  Sacramento is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Kings Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the hottest teams in the NBA.  They have gone 11-3 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve as 6.5-point road underdogs to the Boston Celtics today.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall.  But unlike the Timberwolves, they are getting that respect.  This line should be much closer to PK.  I'll gladly take the value with the road underdogs here.

Minnesota is a perfect 9-0 ATS in Sunday games this season.  Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after covering four of its last five ATS.  The Celtics are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* 76ers/Suns Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia +5

The Philadelphia 76ers have a lot to play for right now.  They are percentage points ahead of the Miami Heat for the No. 1 seed in the East with four teams within 0.5 games of each other for that top spot.

The Phoenix Suns have nothing to play for right now.  They have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and the No. 1 seed overall in the playoffs.  If they continue playing at the high level they have been all season, more power to them.  But I'm willing to bet against that here down the stretch.

The 76ers are starting to form a nice chemistry with James Harden on board now.  They have gone 12-4 SU in their last 16 games overall and are coming off a 25-point road win over the Clippers on Friday.  Look for them to take the Suns to the wire on the road tonight and likely pull off the upset.

Plays on road teams (Philadelphia) - when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that is off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 55-24 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last even games as a road underdog.  Roll with the 76ers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Pistons +4

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 15-0 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are a home dog to the New York Knicks tonight when they shouldn't be.

The Knicks are five games out of the playoffs in the East with 10 games to play.  They are all but eliminated.  But they are getting respect here as road favorites off two straight upset road wins over the Hornets as 8.5-point dogs and the Heat as 9.5-point dogs.    Now they come back as 4-point road favorites at Detroit, which is too big of an adjustment considering this obvious letdown spot.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls.  They have gone just 3-10 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They should be favored here over the Cleveland Cavaliers considering they are finally as healthy as they have been in a long time and get DeMar DeRozan back from injury tonight.  The only key player they are missing is Lonzo Ball, who they have been without for a long time.

The Cavaliers are the team with the big injury concerns, playing without Jarrett Allen, Rajon Rondo and Dean Wade.  They have not been playing well without Allen.  They are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They needed a late rally to beat the Pistons by 4 as 6-point home favorites, lost to the Lakers by 11 as 4.5-point home favorites and lost to the Raptors by 13 as 5-point road dogs in their last three games coming in.

The Bulls have crushed the Cavaliers in their last two meetings, winning 117-104 and 101-91.  Chicago is 33-15 ATS in the last 48 meetings.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 trips to Cleveland.  Cleveland is 18-47-2 ATS in its last 67 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Cavaliers OVER 222

The Chicago Bulls and their opponents have combined for at least 224 points in three of their last four games.  They have allowed 125 or more points in four of their last five games.  I expect them to win a shootout tonight with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The key here is that the Cavaliers are without Jarrett Allen.  He is one of the best defenders in the league.  Without him, the Cavaliers have become soft on defense and have had to play more small ball on offense.  That is evident by the fact that the Cavaliers are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with combined scores of 221 or more points in all six.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3.5

The Miami Heat are falling apart at the seams.  They got in a big argument on the sidelines in their 104-118 upset loss at 10-point favorites to Golden State.  Then they came back last night and blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, getting outscored 38-13 to close to lose 103-111 to the New York Knicks as 9.5-point home favorites.

The Heat can't be trusted in this spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Brookyn Nets come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest and just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Nets will have Kyrie Irving for this game, and they just got the news that he will be allowed to play in home games.  This team has a lot of good mojo right now because of that news, plus they have both Seth Curry and Goran Dragic healthy for this one.  I like for them to run the Heat out of the building tonight and take advantage of their tired legs.

The Nets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and have really formed a nice chemistry with Irving on the highway.  Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall and reeling.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* Mavs/Timberwolves NBA No-Brainer on Minnesota -1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been one of the best teams in the NBA over the past month.  They have gone 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they are currently the 7th seed in the West and only one game back of the Nuggets for the 6th seed, which would have them avoiding the play-in round.

I love the spot for the Timberwolves tonight.  They are coming off two straight painful losses blowing a 13-point halftime lead to the Suns and also losing 108-110 at Dallas the game prior.  Now they get their shot at revenge on the Mavericks at home this time around.  Minnesota is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games with all six wins coming by 14 points or more and that lone loss to the Suns, the best team in the NBA.

Minnesota is 17-5 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  The Timberwolves are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2.5

The Detroit Pistons have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA down the stretch.  They have gone 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and are coming off a 122-101 upset home win as 5-point underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.  

When they have Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham on the floor at the same time, they have been a force.  The Pistons have been competitive in each of their last 16 games during this run not once losing by more than 11 points.  They should handle the Washington Wizards tonight.

The Wizards look to be tanking.  They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  This is a tough spot for the Wizards as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 102-114 loss in Milwaukee last night in which the Bucks were without Giannis and Middleton.  They won't have much left in the tank for Detroit tonight.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 225

The Chicago Bulls are coming off one of their worst offensive performances of the season.  They got 92 shots up but scored just 98 points on 42.4% shooting against the Bucks.  This total has been set too low based off that result and there's value with the OVER tonight.

The Bulls have not been playing well defensively, allowing 125 or more points in three of their last four games.  They face a Pelicans team that is clicking offensively, scoring 114 or more points in 13 of their last 17 games overall.  The Pelicans have also allowed 131 or more points in four of their last nine games.  The Pelicans rank 20th in defensive efficiency this season while the Bulls rank 21st.

These teams tend to play in shootouts when they get together.  Indeed, the OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 231 or more points in all six meetings with none of them going to overtime.  They have averaged a whopping 242.8 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 18 points more than tonight's posted total of 225.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Timberwolves ML +110

Nobody is playing better than the Minnesota Timberwolves right now.  They are 10-2 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They sit in 7th place in the West with an excellent chance to move into the Top 6 and avoid the play-in round as the season nears a close.  They are stepping up when these games matter most.

Games do not matter for the Phoenix Suns right now.  They have already locked up the top seed in the Western Conference and basically the top seed in the playoffs overall.  I question their motivation the rest of the way.  They needed OT to beat the Kings last time out, and I don't think they'll give the kind of effort it's going to take to beat a motivated Timberwolves team on the road tonight.

Plus, the Suns are short-handed right now playing without two of their best player in Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson.  They've been able to beat some overmatched teams without these two, but they aren't going to be able to beat a team the caliber of the Timberwolves without them.

Minnesota is 17-4 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 11-0 ATS in home games with a total of 230 or higher this season.  Minnesota is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 home games, including 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six home games with all six wins coming by 14 points or more.  Bet the Timberwolves on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +4.5

The Detroit Pistons continue to battle.  They have gone 7-8 SU & 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall with all eight losses coming by 11 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in every game.  They get Jerami Grant back from injury tonight and have a great chance to upset the Atlanta Hawks.

This is a terrible spot for the Hawks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-111 win in New York last night.  They needed a double-digit 4th quarter comeback to win that game, so they had to expend max energy.  The Hawks will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days and won't have anything left in the tank for the Pistons tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Detroit is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Atlanta including upset victories as 8-point dogs and 4.5-point dogs in the last two.

The Hawks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  The Pistons are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous game.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -7

The New York Knicks just suffered a devastating loss to the Atlanta Hawks last night in which they blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have essentially been eliminated from playoff contention with that defeat, and they won't have much left in the tank for the Hornets tonight.

The Knicks are likely to be without Julius Randle again tonight.  They take on a red hot Hornets team that is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four wins by double-digits.  Charlotte will use its up-tempo style to take advantage of the tired legs of the Knicks.  The Hornets rank 4th in the NBA in pace and have a lot to play for right now, so motivation is on their side as well.

Charlotte has owned New York in two meetings this season.  They won 104-96 at home and 97-87 on the road.  Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with New York.  The Hornets are rested right now and are 15-6 ATS when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 3-point loss to Toronto and an OT loss at Cleveland while also getting blown out at Utah last time out.  Now the Clippers will be rested and refocused coming in on three days' rest having last played on Friday.

Look for a big effort from the Clippers, and it should be good enough to stay within this 7-point spread of the struggling Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are just 2-4 SU in their last six games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are coming off a 20-point home loss to Boston.  They are a tired team right now playing their 10th game in 17 days, so it's easy to see why they have been struggling.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent meetings.  Each of the last last five meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, and all three meetings this season were decided by 3 points or fewer.  Given that head-to-head history, there's clearly value on the Clippers tonight, especially coming in on three days' rest.

The Clippers are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games playing on three or more days' rest.  The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Denver is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  Take the Clippers Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Bucks NBA No-Brainer on Chicago +7.5

I cashed the Bulls -3 over the Raptors last night and I'm back on them again tonight against the Bucks.  They are as healthy as they have been basically all season and a dangerous team moving forward.  I'm not concerned they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back because of this health and the fact that they had two days off prior to that 113-99 win over the Raptors.

The Bucks are the team with injury concerns.  They do get Giannis Antetokounmpo back from a knee injury tonight, but they will be without their second-best player in Khris Middleton tonight due to a wrist injury.  They should not be 7.5-point favorites over the Bulls without Middleton.

Each of the last three meetings between Chicago and Milwaukee have been decided by 6 points or less and have come down to the wire.  The Bulls have lost both meetings this season by 4 as 11-point road dogs and by 6 as 5-point home dogs.  They want some revenge here in their third meeting with their hated rivals.

Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in home games following a non-conference game this season.  The Bucks are 1-11 ATS when playing against a team that wins between 51% and 60% of their games this season.  Chicago is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 trips to Milwaukee.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now.  They are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with nine wins by 9 points or more.  Teams haven't even been competitive with them.

Now the Timberwolves find themselves as underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks.  This is a rested Timberwolves team that will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are almost fully healthy with the exception of Jaden McDaniels, and they are playing with a ton of chemistry right now.

The Mavericks are going the other way.  They are coming off two straight blowout road loss to Philadelphia by 10 and Charlotte by 21.  Now they return home after a five-game road trip, and I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip because there are distractions they have to deal with at home.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls -3

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are highly motivated for a victory coming off three straight road losses at Sacramento, Utah and Phoenix.  Now they are back home where they are 25-10 SU & 23-12 ATS this season.

The Bulls also come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time with the only player they are missing being Lonzo Ball.  They are expected to get Patrick Williams back from injury today and will be a force moving forward in the East.

This is a terrible spot for the Raptors, while will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off an upset win in Philadelphia last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Raptors, who simply cannot have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.  Expect Chicago to run them out of the building.

Chicago is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following two straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.  The Bulls are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as home favorites.  Chicago is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 meetings with Toronto, including 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Detroit Pistons have made me more money than any team in the NBA over the past month and it's not close.  I'm going to continue to ride them today.  The Pistons are 14-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall as long as you bet them early in their 4-point loss to the Clippers as closing 3.5-point dogs, which we did.

The Pistons come in rested having yesterday off and take on a tired Portland Trail Blazers team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-129 loss in Indiana last night in which they got blown out by 19 in the 4th quarter.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons tonight.

The Blazers are just 1-10 SU in their last 11 games overall with nine losses by 9 points or more, so they have rarely been competitive.  It's easy to see why considering they are so short-handed right now with six players out and two questionable, plus they traded away CJ McCollum, Norman Powell and Robert Covington.  This is one of the worst rosters in the NBA right now.  Take the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Magic OVER 225

The Orlando Magic clearly aren't concerned with playing defense right now.  They have seen four straight games with 228 or more combined points.  Their last two were very concerning as they lost 108-150 to Brooklyn for 258 combined points and 120-134 to Detroit for 254 combined points.

The Thunder are also not concerned with playing defense right now.  Indeed, they have allowed 116 or more points in eight consecutive games.  In fact, Oklahoma City has given up 120 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games.

The OVER is 12-1-1 in Thunder last 14 games overall.  The OVER is 3-0 in Magic last three games overall.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Orlando.  Don't expect much defense to be played in this contest, either.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 235

The Houston Rockets are a great OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  The Memphis Grizzlies will oblige them in an up-tempo game as they rank 3rd in the NBA in pace and 6th in offensive efficiency.

These teams just played on March 6th with Houston pulling the 123-112 upset as 10.5-point home underdogs and 235 combined points.  Keep in mind Memphis only shot 5-of-26 (19.2%) from 3-point range in that game and that's not going to happen again.  Both teams shot poorly from the FT line as well, so they should easily top 235 combined points in the rematch.

Houston is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games after allowing 120 or more points in three consecutive games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Grizzlies last seven road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 17-8-1 in Rockets last 26 games as home underdogs.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +7.5

The Detroit Pistons are the single most underrated team in the NBA right now.  They have gone 12-1 ATS or 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall depending on what line you got on them in their 4-point loss to the Clippers as 3.5-point closing underdogs.  We cashed in on them +4.5.

I'm going to continue backing this team that has made me so much money over the past month.  They are now catching 7.5 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers and have been underdogs in 21 consecutive games now, so oddsmakers continue to miss-price them.  They have pulled outright upsets in seven of their last 13 games during this streak.

The Pistons even won 134-120 in Orlando last time out without their two best players in Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham, flexing their depth.  But now Grant and Cunningham are both expected back tonight.  They'll take on a tired Cleveland team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-116 (OT) comeback win over Denver last night.  

They will also be playing 6th game in 9 days.  Four of their five starters played at least 37 minutes last night, and they are short-handed as it is playing without Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen, Rajon Rondo and Dean Wade.  It's a tall task to ask the Cavaliers to win by 8-plus points to beat us given the spot.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets ML +105

The Dallas Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 5th consecutive road games today.  They should not be favored on the road over the Charlotte Hornets Saturday in a game I fully expect the home team to win outright.

They face a Hornets team playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three consecutive wins by double-digits.  They beat the Pelicans by 22 on the road, the Thunder by 18 on the road and the Hawks by 10 at home.  Now they come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest and just their 3rd game in 8 days.

Charlotte is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games when playing on two days' rest.  The Hornets are 16-6 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Roll with the Hornets on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +5.5

The Utah Jazz are in a world of hurt right now playing without their top two scorers tonight in Donovan Mitchell (25.7 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Bojan Bogdanovic (18.1 PPG).  They should not even be favored over the Clippers tonight without these two, let alone 5.5-point favorites.

The Clippers have been undervalued all season as they have stepped up in the absence of Leonard and George and managed to put together a .500 season with a great chance to make the playoffs down the stretch.  Off an OT loss to Cleveland and a 3-point loss to Toronto, the Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.

They should win this game outright against a tired Utah Jazz team that will be playing their 8th game in 13 days.  That fatigue will be even more of a factor for the Jazz tonight considering they are short-handed.

Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Clippers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The Jazz are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Rockets OVER 240.5

The Indiana Pacers and Houston Rockets have nothing to play for.  There will be no defense played in this game, and it's not like either team plays defense anyway.  These are two of the best OVER teams in the NBA with the way they play.

The Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  They have allowed 112 or more points in nine consecutive games coming in.  The OVER is 11-4 in Pacers last 15 games overall so they will happily oblige with the Rockets and get up and down the court.  Indiana ranks 27th in defensive efficiency.

Indiana has allowed 107 or more points in 15 consecutive games.  That includes 119 or more points in 10 of those 15 contests.  But they have been clicking on offense with Brogdon, Haliburton and Hield running the show now.  They have scored 119 or more points in nine of their last 13 games overall.

Indiana is 25-9 OVER in its last 34 games with a total of 230 or higher.  Houston is 8-1 OVER against Central Division opponents this season.  The OVER is 20-6-1 in Pacers last 27 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Indiana is 48-23-1 OVER in its last 72 games following a loss.  The OVER is 24-11-1 in Rockets last 36 games following a loss.  The OVER is 17-7-1 in Rockets last 25 games as home underdogs.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Raptors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto -1.5

The Toronto Raptors are rolling right now going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight road wins at San Antonio, Phoenix, Denver and the LA Lakers.  They would love nothing more than to cap off this road trip with their fifth consecutive victory over the Clippers tonight.

The Raptors' resurgence has gone hand-in-hand with getting All-Star Fred VanVleet back from injury.  He made his return against the Spurs and has played in three of the past four games.  They even won without him at Denver.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and playing up to their potential.

The Clippers are a tired team right now playing their 6th game in 9 days and coming off three straight road games and an overtime loss to Cleveland.  Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Clippers.  They were already without Leonard, George and Powell, and now they may be without Morris, Jackson and Covington, who are all questionable for this game Wednesday.

Toronto is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games following three or more consecutive wins this season.  It is winning by 12.6 points per game in this spot.  The Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.  Toronto is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Los Angeles is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1.5

The Charlotte Hornets have their mojo back going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with three wins by 18 points or more.  Their two losses came to the Nets and Celtics, two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  They have scored 119 or more points in five of their last six games overall.

They face an overrated Hawks team that has won three in a row against suspect competition but failed to cover the spread in all three.  In fact, the Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have struggled on the road all season going 12-21 SU & 10-23 ATS in their 33 games away from home.  They are also playing without one of their best players in John Collins right now.

The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Atlanta is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 road games.  Charlotte is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Atlanta.  The Hornets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Hawks will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +13

The Detroit Pistons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall and the most underrated team in the NBA right now.  I have been on them for the majority of these games and I'm going to continue to ride them until the oddsmakers adjust properly.  The Pistons are still lacking the respect they deserve as 13-point dogs to the Miami Heat tonight.

Detroit has been an underdog in all 11 games during this 11-0 ATS run and has pulled six outright upsets.  They were competitive in all five losses too with all five coming by 11 points or fewer and four of those were to playoff teams.  They upset five playoff contenders as well, so the schedule has not been easy.

Detroit is 3-0 ATS in three meetings with Miami this season as all three went down to the wire.  Detroit lost 92-100 as 10.5-point home underdogs on November 23rd, won 100-90 as 6.5-point home underdogs on December 19th and only lost 112-115 as 12-point road underdogs on December 23rd.  This current version of Detroit is much better than the version that played Miami in those three meetings in 2021.

Plays on road underdogs (Detroit) - revenging a close loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that is coming off an upset loss as a favorite are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +9.5

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now.  They have gone 5-4 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to pay major dividends as this young, talented roster is shining late in the season.

The Magic have upset wins over the Raptors as 7-point road dogs, the Pelicans as 8.5-point road dogs and the Timberwolves as 8.5-point home dogs during this stretch.  They also lost to Phoenix by 3 as 6-point home dogs and in OT by 2 to the 76ers as 11-point dogs.  They have proven they can hang with the best teams in the NBA.

The Brooklyn Nets are overvalued right now after going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are primed for a letdown here against the Magic and each of the last two meetings went down to the wire.  The Magic pulled the 100-93 upset as 6-point road underdogs on December 18th and only lost 113-115 as 9.5-point road underdogs at Brooklyn on November 19th this season.

Brooklyn is 8-22 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Nets are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games as favorites overall.  Orlando is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 meetings with Brooklyn.  Bet the Magic Tuesday.

15* Raptors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 225

The Lakers have been a great OVER team this season as they rank 5th in pace and 17th in defensive efficiency.  The OVER is 5-1 in Lakers last six games overall and they have combined for 227 or more points with their opponents in all six games.  So this 225-point total has been set too low tonight.

That's especially the case with the Raptors going OVER the total in their last two games.  They won 117-112 in Phoenix for 229 combined points and 127-115 in Denver for 242 combined points.  They are really clicking offensively right now scoring 117 points or more in three straight and take ona. Lakers team that has allowed 109 or more points in seven straight, including 140 to Phoenix yesterday.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (LA Lakers) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) after 42-plus games after allowing 130 points or more are 35-9 (79.5%) since 1996.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.