15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors -6.5

The Toronto Raptors went through a rough patch midseason that has them undervalued right now.  They have lost eight of their last 12 games overall, but a lot of the struggles were due to being without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan.  But he's back healthy now and the Raptors are pretty much at full strength, which means they'll be a dangerous squad moving forward.

The Raptors are 18-9 SU & 15-11-1 ATS at home this season, while the Pistons are just 9-18 SU & 10-17 ATS on the road.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series, including a 109-91 victory by the Raptors in their first meeting this year.

Plays against road underdogs (DETROIT) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 56-19 (74.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Raptors come in on three days' rest, so they'll be fresh and ready to go.  Plus, they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The Pistons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take the Raptors Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +3.5

Well, I lost last night with the Brooklyn Nets +6.5 against the Miami Heat as they blew it in the fourth quarter again.  Undeterred, I'm going to fade the Heat again here tonight as this is a terrible spot for them, and they're once again being overvalued.

The Heat are now a ridiculous 13-0 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Odds say it's almost impossible to cover this many games in a row.  This streak is going to come to an end very soon, and I don't want to miss the boat.  I think it comes to an end tonight against the 76ers.

The Heat will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  It's worth noting that the Heat have had only one back-to-back situation previously on this winning streak, so the schedule has broken their way.  But now this will be the first time they've played a back-to-back on the road, which is even tougher.

The 76ers have gone a superb 19-8 ATS at home this season.  In fact, they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games.  Fans are starting to fill the seats because this is now a fun team to watch, and they know the future is extremely bright.  Look for Philly to end Miami's winning streak here tonight.  Take the 76ers.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

The Brooklyn Nets are showing great value as 6.5-point home underdogs to the Miami Heat tonight.  There are several reasons that support my theory that this line has been inflated, not the least of which is that the Nets are 0-11 in their last 11 games overall.

However, the Nets have been competitive of late.  Eight of their last nine losses have come by single-digits, so they've been right there with a chance to win.  They only lost by 4 at Charlotte as 10-point dogs, and lost in OT at home to the Wizards as 10-point dogs in their last two contests coming in.

Conversely, Miami is way overvalued right now due to going 12-0 SU & 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Now they're being asked to go on the road and lay 6.5 points.  This is an impressive run by the Heat, but I think it probably comes to an end tonight.

The Nets will be out for revenge from two narrow losses to the Heat over the past couple weeks.  The Nets lost 106-109 at home to the Heat on January 25th after blowing a big lead in the 4th quarter.  They also lost 96-104 at Miami on January 30th.  I expect the Heat to be disinterested facing the Nets for the 3rd time in two weeks, while the Nets will want this game more.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off an upset win as a road underdog, on Friday nights are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS since 1996.  Miami is 8-20 ATS in road games versus teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 16-29 ATS off a road win over the last three years.  Bet the Nets Friday.

20* Cavs/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 208

The Cleveland Cavaliers are resting their three best players in Lebron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love tonight.  They have been on fire offensively of late, but now they aren't going to know what to do offensively without those three.

Now they'll be up against an Oklahoma City team that gets after it defensively.  The Thunder rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  They are coming off back-to-back solid defensive showings in allowing only 99 points to the Blazers and 93 points to the Pacers.

Points have been hard to come by in this series even when Kevin Durant was playing for the Thunder, and the Big 3 were playing for Cleveland.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  All six saw 207 combined points or fewer, which is less than tonight's total set of 208.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in OKC.

Oklahoma City is 9-0 UNDER off four straight games where they forced opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  Cleveland is 10-1 UNDER in road games vs. Northwest Division opponents over the last three years.  The Cavs are 13-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

The Miami Heat are more overvalued now than they have been at any point this season.  That's because they have gone 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice, and now they're only catching 3 points on the road to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.

I look for an inspired effort from the Bucks to put an end to the Heat's 11-game winning streak tonight.  The Bucks have had three days off in between games since crushing Phoenix 137-112 on the road on Saturday.  So they are fresh and ready to go here tonight.

The Heat are just 9-17 on the road this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  In fact, the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  All four wins have come by 6 points or more as well.

Miami is 7-20 ATS in road games vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Milwaukee is 11-2 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 19-8 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past two years.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2

The Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks just played a few days ago.  The Mavericks upset the Blazers 108-104 on the road as 6.5-point favorites on February 3rd.  I like taking the team that lost the first meeting when they play within a week of each other because they are the more motivated squad.

Expect a big effort from the Blazers here tonight as they try and get revenge on the Mavericks.  Plus, this is a bad spot for Dallas, which will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing 87-110 in Denver last night.  The Blazers had yesterday off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.

Plays against home underdogs (DALLAS) - after playing two consecutive road games, playing on back-to-back days are 76-41 (65%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Roll with the Blazers Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Indiana Pacers have turned the corner and are finally playing up to their potential.  They have won six straight and have gone 13-4 in their last 17 games overall.  Yet, they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

The Pacers have been especially good at home, going 19-6 SU & 14-10-1 ATS on the season.  The Oklahoma City Thunder haven't been nearly as good on the road, going 12-15 SU & 12-15 ATS on the highway this season while giving up 108.1 points per game on 46.7% shooting.

This is an awful spot for the Thunder.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  I think this team is running on fumes right now and will be out of gas.  That's especially the case since they are without one of their best players in Enes Kanter.

Oklahoma City is 2-11 ATS in road games vs. Central Division opponents over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 21-35 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Indiana is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* Clippers/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 222.5

The Los Angeles Clippers and Boston Celtics square off Sunday in a National TV game on ABC.  I expect the defensive intensity to be high in this game, and for this contest to finish well UNDER the posted total of 222.5.

This total has been inflated because both teams have gone over frequently of late.  The Clippers have gone over in five straight, while the over is 6-3 in the Celtics' last nine games overall.  We are going to capitalize on this market overreaction and back the UNDER here today.

A whopping 20 of the last 22 meetings between the Celtics and Clippers have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a 20-2 system backing the UNDER based on the series history alone pertaining to this 222.5-point total.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is at least 200 in a game involving two up-tempo teams who average 82 or more shots per games after 42-plus games, a hot shooting team with two straight games making at least 50% of their shots are 73-37 (66.4%) since 1996.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +7.5

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to going 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  I took advantage of this fact and backed the Lakers +11 on Thursday and they covered in an 8-point loss.  I'm going to take advantage again tonight and back the Pelicans as 7.5-point road dogs here.

Conversely, the Pelicans come in undervalued due to going 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall.  The first loss was a 94-107 home loss to the Wizards.  So, the Pelicans will be playing with revenge in mind after facing this same team just a week ago on January 29th.  I like their motivation heading in because of it.

The Wizards are also overvalued right now because they have won 16 straight home games coming in.  Obviously, this streak is going to come to an end sooner rather than later.  And they've found themselves in the big favorite role quite a bit lately because of this streak.  They are once again laying too many points here tonight.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after having covered four of their last five against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 33-12 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss, and 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

20* Lakers/Celtics ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +11.5

The Los Angeles Lakers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers right now.  That's evident in the fact that they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  I was on them last night as 11-point dogs in a cover at red-hot Washington, and I'm on them again tonight as similar 11.5-point dogs to the Celtics.

The Lakers went through a long slump after a fast start this season, but a lot of that had to do with injuries.  But the Lakers are fully healthy now.  De'Angelo Russell recently returned to the lineup, and Julius Randle just returned from a battle with pneumonia.  He played six minutes against the Wizards last night and will be available again here.

Boston comes in overvalued due to its five-game winning streak.  However, the Celtics have failed to put away their last two opponents at home.  They didn't cover as 5.5-point favorites in a 4-point win over the Pistons, and needed a huge fourth quarter to beat the Raptors by 5 as 6-point favorites.  I don't think they can win by double-digits here.

The Lakers have owned the Celtics, going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They always get up for their biggest rivals, and even these young players know what this rivalry means.  Boston is 1-10 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  It is actually getting outscored 106.7 to 111.6 in this spot on average.  Bet the Lakers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers +11

The Washington Wizards could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  Oddsmakers have now made the Wizards a double-digit favorite for just the second time all season.  The first was a non-cover in a 2-point win over Chicago as 11.5-point favorites.

And now the Wizards have to go up against a pesky Los Angeles Lakers team that will be champing at the bit to pull off the upset and end Washington's home winning streak.  The Lakers will be fresh and ready to go tonight as this will be just their 2nd game in 7 days.

And the Lakers just got some reinforcements as PG De'Angelo Russell just returned to the lineup from injury.  The Lakers promptly took down the Nuggets 120-116 at home to cover as 1-point favorites.  This will be a dangerous team moving forward, and that has shown as the Lakers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.

Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 107-64 (62.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Washington.  Roll with the Lakers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +6.5

The Philadelphia 76ers continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  This despite the fact that they've gone 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Now they are catching 6.5 points in Dallas tonight, which is simply too much.

The Mavericks are now getting a ton of respect from the books after back-to-back upset victories over the Spurs and Cavs.  They caught the Cavs on the 2nd of a back-to-back and took advantage.  But after playing and beating two of the best teams in the NBA, it's only human nature for them to have a big letdown here.

The 76ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Philadelphia is 41-19-1 ATS in its last 61 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5

The Miami Heat are feeling very good about themselves right now.  They are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall, playing their best basketball of the season.  They will come into this game against Atlanta with a ton of confidence as a result.

Atlanta isn't exactly playing well enough right now to be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  The Hawks are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a four-OT home win over the Knicks by 3, and their other win was a 5-point victory at Chicago in which they erased a double-digit deficit late.  They were upset at home by the Clippers by 10 as 7-point favorites, and they were throttled by the Wizards by 26 as 3.5-point home favorites.

The Heat are 33-10 SU & 28-14-1 ATS in their last 43 home meetings with the Hawks.  They will be out for revenge following two losses to the Hawks already this season by 3 and 8 points.  I look for them to get their revenge in this third meeting of the season tonight.

Atlanta is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 road games after allowing 120 points or more.  Miami is 9-1 ATS off a home win this season.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 99-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Spurs UNDER 211

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be a dead nut UNDER team moving forward.  I capitalized with the UNDER in their game against Cleveland on Sunday and took the UNDER 220 in a game that saw 196 combined points.  I'll back the UNDER 211 here against the San Antonio Spurs Tuesday as well.

The reason the Thunder are an UNDER team now is because Enes Kanter was just lost for over a month with a broken arm.  Kanter averages 14.4 points per game and is a key contributor on offense, but a liability on defense.  In their first game without him, the Thunder only managed 91 points against the Cavs.

Now they face a pissed-off Spurs team tonight that has lost two straight coming in due to poor defense.  In fact, the Spurs have allowed 105 or more points in three straight games.  You can bet that Greg Popovich has emphasized defense leading up to this game against the Thunder, and the Spurs should come up with a much better showing on that side of the court tonight.

Just looking at recent meetings, it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.  The Spurs and Thunder have combined for 208 or fewer points in seven of those nine meetings.  They have averaged 199.3 combined points during this stretch, which is nearly 12 points less than this posted total of 211.

Oklahoma City is 12-0 UNDER off three straight games with 55 or more rebounds this season.  The Thunder are 8-0 UNDER after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The UNDER is 23-9 in Thunder's last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

The Brooklyn Nets are showing tremendous value Monday as 8.5-point road underdogs to the Miami Heat.  I like this spot for the Nets, who have lost five straight coming in and are getting absolutely zero respect from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers right now.

Conversely, the Miami Heat are getting massive respect here because they have gone 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  It has been by far the best stretch of the season for the Heat, who are still just 18-30 on the year.

I also like this spot for the Nets because they'll be out for revenge from a 106-109 home loss to the Heat on January 25th just six days ago.  The Nets blew an 18-point lead heading into the 4th quarter in that game and have not forgotten.  They will look to even the score tonight.  Bet the Nets Monday.

15* Thunder/Cavs ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 220

The Oklahoma City Thunder just lost Enes Kanter to a broken arm.  He is third on the team in scoring at 14.4 points per game, but usually a defensive liability.  The Thunder are going to miss his offense, but they will be a better defensive team without him as it means more minutes for the offensively-challenged Domantas Sabonis.

When looking at the recent head-to-head history between Oklahoma City and Cleveland, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated Sunday.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The Thunder and Cavs have combined for 218 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.

In fact, they have averaged just 204.8 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than today's posted total of 220.  The UNDER is 38-16 in Thunder's last 54 games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 78-34-3 in Cavaliers last 115 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Cleveland.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns -2

This is a classic home-and-home situation.  The Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets just played on Thursday.  The Nuggets overcame a 4-point halftime deficit to beat the Suns 127-120 at home as 6.5-point favorites.  Now, these teams head to Phoenix for the rematch just two days later.

I always like backing the team that lost the first game in these home-and-home situations.  I think the Suns will clearly be the team with more fight tonight as they try an avenge that defeat.  Plus, they are only 2-point favorites here, so this is a great price as they basically just have to win the game to cover.

The Nuggets are going to be without two starters for Saturday's rematch as well.  Emmanuel Mudiay has missed the past four games and remains out.  But Nikola Jokic suffered a hip injury against the Suns and isn't even traveling with the team.  He is one of the most underrated players in the NBA as he averages 15.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 4.0 APG.  His loss is huge for the Nuggets.

The Suns are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.  Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The home team is 26-12-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings.  The favorite is 36-15-1 ATS in the last 52 meetings.  Take the Suns Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +1

The New York Knicks are highly motivated for a victory here at home tonight.  They are a solid 12-11 at home this season and should get back in the win column at a great price as 1-point home underdogs to the Charlotte Hornets.

The Hornets have no business being road favorites with the way they've been playing lately.  They are just 3-7 in their last 10 games overall.  This is also a terrible spot for the Hornets.  They are coming off a home loss to the Warriors, and it will be hard for them to get up to play the Knicks now.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won six of the last seven meetings.  The home team has also won 10 of the last 12 meetings dating back further.

Charlotte is 1-9 ATS off two consecutive home games this season.  New York is 15-5 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Atlantic Division opponents.  The Knicks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Friday games.  Take the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Cavs UNDER 226.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have dropped six of their last eight games overall.  I don't think there's value backing them as 15-point favorites here, but I do see a ton of value in the UNDER.

The reason for the Cavs' struggles lately has been defense as they have allowed at least 100 points in 11 straight games.  I think their motivation will shine through on that end of the court more than anything moving forward as they know that defense has cost them.

This will be the 3rd meeting between these teams already this season.  They combined for 218 and 224 points in their first two meetings, staying UNDER this 226.5-point total both times.  And I think that will be the case for a 3rd straight meeting here.

The Cavs and Nets have combined for 224 or fewer points in 17 straight meetings.  That makes for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 226.5.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4

The Sacramento Kings are in a prime letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off a huge overtime road win over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers.  I don't expect them to show up at all here tonight against the Indiana Pacers off such a big win.

This is also a tough spot for the Kings, who will be playing their 5th straight road game in a span of 8 days.  I look for them to start wearing down here soon, and it starts with this game tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

I realize the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off their 109-103 win in Minnesota last night.  However, they had two days off prior to that game, so they will be fresher than most teams in a back-to-back situation.

Plays against any team (SACRAMENTO) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* Mavs/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +8

The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, yet they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as 8-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Mavericks will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as this will be the first time they'll have a chance to avenge their playoff series loss to the Thunder in the opening round last year.  And while the Mavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, they had two days off prior to their home win over the Knicks on Wednesday.

The Thunder don't have the same luxury.  They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  Not only that, but this is an awful spot for the Thunder as it will be their first game back home from a 6-game road trip.  Plus, they have a huge game against the defending champion Cavaliers on deck and could be looking ahead.

The Mavs are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Dallas is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 trips to Oklahoma City.  The road team si 39-17-2 ATS in the last 58 meetings.  Roll with the Mavericks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +4

This is a great spot to fade the Miami Heat, who are primed for a letdown here tonight.  The Heat won four straight home games coming in, including their 105-102 upset of Golden State on Monday as 11-point dogs.  Off their biggest win of the season, they will now fail to show up at all in Brooklyn tonight.

The betting public is all over the Heat in this game, yet this line has dropped.  That's an indication that the big money is on the Nets, and I believe it is warranted given the awful spot for the Heat here.  After all, Miami is just 6-17 straight up in road games this season and should not be favored on the road against anyone.

Plays on underdogs (BROOKLYN) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 49-17 (74.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Miami is 1-11 ATS in road games vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 0-8 ATS in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots over the last three years.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -2.5

The Utah Jazz are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  This schedule appeared to catch up with them last night as they fell at home to the Thunder 95-97 as 5-point favorites.

Now they must go to the altitude to take on the red-hot Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have really started to click offensively, averaging 121.2 points per game in their last six contests overall.

The home team has won three straight and seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Jazz are 1-9 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Denver is 13-3 ATS off a loss to a division rival this year.  Utah is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five straight coming in while failing to cover the spread in all five games, which has them undervalued right now.  But four of those five losses came on the road.

One of those losses came at Houston on January 18th just six days ago.  That places the Bucks in revenge mode tonight, only adding to their motivation.  Look for them to play one of their better games of the season, especially after recently holding a team meeting to address their issues.

I don't expect the Grizzlies to be all that motivated here.  They are coming off back-to-back games against Golden State and Memphis, and after having beaten Milwaukee just six days ago, they won't be fully locked in.  The Rockets will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here, so they are a tired team.

Milwaukee is 17-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 24-13 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two years.  Milwaukee is 82-47 ATS in its last 129 games off four or more consecutive losses.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4.5

The Charlotte Hornets have won three straight games coming in.  All three wins came at home with a 22-point win over Portland, a 35-point win over Toronto and a 7-point win over Brooklyn.  They are now 15-7 at home this season.

The Washington Wizards are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers due to going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But the Wizards are just 5-14 SU & 8-11 ATS on the road this season.  They are giving up 108.4 points per game on 47.1% shooting away from home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Hornets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Denver Nuggets are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  Making matters worse is the fact that they'll be without two starters in Emmanuel Mudiay and Gary Harris.

I think the Nuggets are starting to get a little too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  But the four wins came against the Pacers, Magic, Lakers and Clippers, who were without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin last night.

The Timberwolves are starting to play up to their potential, but they aren't getting the respect they deserve.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they are laying a short number here despite the fact that they come in on two days' rest and in a much better situation than the Nuggets.

The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Minnesota is 11-0 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the second half of the season over the last two years.  Roll with the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5

The Detroit Pistons are going to be a great bet moving forward.  They haven't lived up to expectations yet as they are just 20-24 on the season, but it appears they are starting to turn the corner.

After winning 102-97 in Los Angeles, the Pistons came back and thumped Atlanta 118-95 at home.  Now the Pistons have had two days off since that game, and this will actually be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Look for a big effort from them here given their rest advantage.

Washington is way overvalued right now due to going 14-5 in its last 19 games overall.  However, almost all of those wins have come at home.  The Wizards are just 5-13 SU & 7-11 ATS on the road this season.  They don't have the same rest advantage as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.

Washington is 1-10 ATS off a road win where it scored 110 or more points over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games with a total set of 210 or more.  The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest.  The Wizards are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Detroit.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Brooklyn Nets right now.  They have lost 11 straight coming in while going 2-9 ATS in the process.  As a result, we're getting a huge number here with the Nets Friday, and the value is clearly with the double-digit road dog.

The schedule has been brutal of late which is a big reason for the Nets' struggles.  Their last three losses have come to the Raptors (twice) and Rockets.  They also lost 95-104 at home to the Pelicans on January 12th just over a week ago, which places them in revenge mode here in the rematch.

The Pelicans are getting too much respect from the books and the betting public due to going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  But now we find them laying double-digits for the first time all season.  In fact, they haven't been more than 6-point favorites in any other game this year.

New Orleans is 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games off a home win by 20 points or more.  The Pelicans are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 vs. teams who are outscored by 9-plus points per game on the season.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Nets Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers +1.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are once again showing great value as home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, yet getting no respect for it from the oddsmakers and betting public.

The 76ers have gone 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The two losses came on the road to Boston (by 4) and Washington (by 16), and that loss to the Wizards was the second of a back-to-back without Joel Embiid.  When Embiid has been on the floor, this has been a 54-win team, and without him they're an 11-win team.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a mess this season.  They have lost three straight coming in against Eastern Conference foes, losing by 6 at home to Orlando, and by 19 at Washington and 22 at Charlotte.  This team is just out of it mentally right now, and I don't foresee them turning it around any time soon.

Portland is 5-18 ATS off three straight non-conference games over the last three seasons.  The Blazers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The 76ers are 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 vs. Western Conference.  Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1

The Charlotte Hornets finally ended a five-game losing streak with a 107-85 home victory over the Portland Trail Blazers last time out.  All five of those losses came on the road, but the Hornets are 13-7 at home this season.  Look for them to build off that win with another here tonight.

The Raptors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and started to show some fatigue in an 89-94 loss at Philadelphia on Wednesday.  And the Raptors are dealing with several injuries right now as DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson and Lucas Nogueira are all questionable.

Toronto is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 road games versus teams who scored 103 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Charlotte is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 home meetings.  Take the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +13

The Cleveland Cavaliers will suffer a hangover effect from their blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors last time out.  There's no way they'll be able to get up for the Phoenix Suns like they were against the Warriors.

The Suns have been playing some of their best basketball of the season of late.  They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes an upset 108-105 win over San Antonio as 12.5-point dogs, a narrow 101-106 loss to Utah as 6.5-point dogs and a narrow 116-120 loss to Cleveland as 8.5-point dogs.

That also puts the Suns in revenge mode here after losing to the Cavaliers by 4 on January 8th less than two weeks ago.  And the Suns haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points, so getting 13 points here is a tremendous value.

Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.   The Cavaliers are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Take the Suns Thursday.

15* Pacers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

The Sacramento Kings will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost five of their last six coming in while facing a brutal schedule.  The five losses have come against the Heat, Clippers, Warriors, Cavs and Thunder.

Another reason the Kings will be motivated is because this is their final home game before they partake in an 8-game road trip starting on Friday.  They have had two days off to get ready for the Pacers tonight, and they will be putting a lot into this game to get a victory.

Indiana is getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 6-1 in their last seven games overall against an extremely soft schedule with five of those wins coming at home.  But the Pacers are just 5-14 SU & 5-14 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.7 points per game.

Indiana is 1-10 ATS in road games off a win this season.  Sacramento is 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.  The Pacers are 0-9 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 76% or better this season.  The Kings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -11.5

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting upset 108-105 by the Phoenix Suns in Mexico City.  And they have responded very well following a loss this season, going 7-1 while winning those seven games by an average of 19.7 points.

The Minnesota Timberwolves appeared to turn the corner with three straight home wins, but them promptly lost 87-98 on the road to the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday.  They are now just 5-14 SU & 6-13 ATS on the road this season.  And while they have just one day off in between games, the Spurs come in on two days' rest.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Spurs are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Timberwolves.  Seven of those eight wins have come by at least 14 points, so this series hasn't even been competitive.

San Antonio is 8-0 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 21.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Warriors TNT Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

The books have set the bar too high in this NBA Finals rematch between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring affair in this contest, which is exactly what it has been the last several times these teams have gotten together.

In fact, the Warriors and Cavs haven't combined for more than 217 points in any of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 202.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 24 points less than this posted total of 226.5.  As you can see, there is a ton of value with the UNDER.

Cleveland is 12-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Warriors last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 22-8-2 in Warriors last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings in Golden State.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +13

The Brooklyn Nets are showing great value as double-digit home underdogs to the Houston Rockets Sunday.  The Nets have lost nine straight while going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  That's why we are getting such a big number here.

The Houston Rockets are overvalued because they have gotten off to a surprising 31-11 start.  But it's starting to catch up to them as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games while getting upset in two straight games.  However, the public support continues to be there for them, so the oddsmakers are forced to inflate their lines.

The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets.  They only lost 118-122 as 13.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season in December, and now they are catching 13 again in the rematch at home this time around.  That just shows you that there is plenty of line value here.  Plus, the Nets won 110-105 as 5-point home dogs and 106-98 as 11.5-point road dogs in their two previous meetings with the Rockets.

The Nets are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 78-38 (67.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Nets Sunday.

15* Spurs/Suns Mexico City No-Brainer on San Antonio -11

I look for the disciplined San Antonio Spurs to treat this game in Mexico City like a business trip.  I look for the youthful Phoenix Suns to treat this trip to Mexico City more like a vacation.  Expect the Spurs to roll because of their better mindset going in.

Plus, the Spurs have absolutely owned the Suns of late.  San Antonio is 9-0 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Phoenix.  Amazingly, seven of the last eight wins by the Spurs in this series have come by 14 points or more.  The last eight have also come by an average of 20.1 points per game, which is roughly nine points more than this 11-point spread.

Phoenix is 1-11 ATS in January road games over the last two seasons.  San Antonio is 9-1 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 16-3 ATS versus terrible defensive teams that allow 103 or more points per game this season.  The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Roll with the Spurs Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4

The Charlotte Hornets are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight and five of their last six coming in.  Four of the losses came on the road to the Bulls, Pistons, Spurs and Rockets, while the lone home loss came to the Cavs.  They also beat the Thunder by 11 at home during this stretch.

It's safe to say that the recent struggles can almost exclusively be attributed to the tough schedule, and not poor performance.  But now the Hornets get a break in the schedule here against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers, who come in overvalued due to having gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The four wins came against the Nuggets, T'Wolves, Nets and Knicks, four below-average teams.

I like the fact that the Hornets will be motivated here because that means they aren't going to take the 76ers lightly.  And that's not something they do anyways.  That's obvious by the fact that the Hornets have won six straight meetings with the 76ers.  The last five have all come by 9 points or more and by an average of 17.0 points per game.  Look for the domination to continue tonight.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - an explosive offensive team (at least102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 110 points or more are 49-17 (74.2%) ATS since 1996.

Both Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller are expected to return to the lineup tonight.  Batum missed the last three games, while Zeller sat out the last one.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Philadelphia.  The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Pistons/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit +13.5

The Golden State Warriors have been great fade material of late.  They keep getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers because the betting public is always going to be heavy on them.  And as a result, their lines continue to be inflated, providing value on the opposing teams.

That has especially been the case of late as the Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, and just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 contests.  They haven't won any of their last nine games by more than 12 points.  They clearly aren't concerned with winning by margins this year.

The Pistons just faced the Warriors on December 23rd in their first meeting this season.  They only lost that game 113-119 at home as 7-point dogs.  They beat the Warriors 113-95 as 7-point home dogs in their final meeting last season as well.  They've clearly proven they can play with this team.

Detroit is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 games when the total is 210 or more.  The Pistons are 13-3 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Golden State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up win.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +4

The Minnesota Timberwolves have had numerous second-half collapses this season.  Perhaps none were worse than their 111-109 overtime loss at home to the Rockets in December.  They have 12 losses this season when leading by double-digits, and they led by 12 points with 2:19 left in that game.

But the Rockets closed on a 14-2 run thanks to four 3-pointers from Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza.  James Harden then scored 10 points in overtime to lead Houston to victory.  It's safe to say that the Timberwolves haven't forgotten, and they'll be highly motivated for revenge tonight as a result.

And just like in that game, Houston comes in playing the second of a back-to-back.  This will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Rockets.  They are running on fumes right now, and that started to show last night as they blew an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Hornets, only to win 121-114 as 9-point favorites.  They won't be so fortunate to escape with victory again tonight.

The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Blazers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML +110

The Los Angeles Lakers have been playing extremely well at home this season.  They are 10-10 at home, and they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with wins by 14 over Memphis, by 27 over Miami and by 16 over Orlando.  Look for them to continue to roll at home tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are clearly having a down season.  They are just 16-23 on the year, and they have really struggled on the road, going 6-15 SU & 8-13 ATS.  Their biggest problem is giving up 113.9 points per game on average in road games this season.

The Lakers will be extra motivated tonight to avenge a 109-118 road loss at Portland on January 5th just five days ago.  They actually led that game 62-53 at halftime before blowing it in the second half, especially in the last few minutes.  Look for them to get their payback less than a week later here.

Portland is 2-10 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Blazers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss.  Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Lakers have actually lost nine straight in this series, which only adds to their motivation for a win here.  Take the Lakers on the Money Line Tuesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Boston Celtics.  The Raptors are going through their worst stretch of the season, losing five of their last seven games overall.  And that's why they are undervalued right now laying only 4 points at home here.

Conversely, the Boston Celtics have won four straight coming in, making them overvalued right now.  But keep in mind that all four of those victories came at home, and they were mostly against subpar teams in the Heat, Jazz, 76ers and Pelicans.  And they only beat the Heat by 3 and the 76ers by 4.

The Raptors have had the Celtics' number, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  And while the Raptors are basically at full strength right now, the Celtics are not.  They will be missing both center Tyler Zeller and starting shooting guard Avery Bradley for this one.  Not having Bradley is huge because he plays such great defense against opponents' best guards.

The Celtics are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games playing on two days' rest.  The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Toronto is 8-1 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points this season.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -3.5

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost seven of their last eight games overall coming in and need a win here to stem the tide.  I look for them to come out with an inspired effort tonight as a result.

The Pelicans have lost three straight coming in.  They are just 4-13 SU & 6-10-1 ATS in all road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 7.3 points per game on the season.  The Knicks are 11-7 SU & 12-6 ATS at home, finally enjoying a home-court advantage this season as fans have been excited about this team.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New York.

The Knicks are 12-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.  New York is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5

The Portland Trail Blazers just recently returned their best player to the lineup in Damian Lillard.  They are starting to play much better of late with a 5-1 ATS record in their last six contests.  They are once again being undervalued here as only 3.5-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons don't deserve the kind of respect they're getting from oddsmakers here.  They are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Detroit is also 7-12 SU & 7-12 ATS in road games this season, while Portland is 10-7 SU at home.

Plays against any team (DETROIT) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 73-37 (66.4%) ATS since 1996.

The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Portland.  Take the Blazers Sunday.

20* Knicks/Bucks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 214

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks will be playing a home-and-home here Friday night.  They just played on Wednesday, and the Bucks won 105-104 on a game-winner at the buzzer by the Giannis Antetokounmpo.  Now they are playing just two nights later.

I always look to back the UNDER in the second meeting of these home-and-home situations.  That's because there is a familiarity between the teams that makes points harder to come by in the second meeting.  And I think that will be the case again here as these teams combined for 209 points with a 213-point total in the first meeting, and now the total is actually set higher at 214 in the rematch, so the oddsmakers have failed to adjust.

And this has been a very low-scoring series in general.  In fact, the Bucks and Knicks have combined for 209 or fewer in seven of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 193.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are now playing their best basketball of the season now that they are fully healthy.  They have won four of their last five games overall with their only loss coming in Cleveland.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as well.  And now they are still getting no respect from oddsmakers as only 2.5-point home favorites here.

The Atlanta Hawks are getting a ton of respect from the books now that they have won four straight coming in.  However, this team is in a very bad spot tonight.  The Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Orlando last night.  Meanwhile, the Pelicans come in on two days' rest after playing the Cavs on Monday.

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% this season.  It is actually losing to these teams by an average of 7.4 points per game.  The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Magic OVER 207

I believe the books have set the bar too low here in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic tonight.  These have been two dead-nut over teams of late and I think that trend continues here as we see plenty of offensive fireworks in this one, and little defense played.

The OVER is 4-0 in Magic's last four games overall.  They have combined for 214, 221, 221 and 218 points in those four contests.  The OVER is 7-4 in Hawks' last 11 games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 217 or more points six times during this stretch.

And the recent head-to-head history favors the OVER, too.  In their first meeting this season, the Magic won 131-120 for 251 combined points.  There was very little defense played obviously as the Magic shot 58.6% from the floor while the Hawks shot 50.0%.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Hawks last seven road games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Magic's last nine home games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Magic's last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +2

The Dallas Mavericks are starting to play better now that they've gotten healthy.  The have won four of their last eight games overall with three of their four losses coming on the road, and two of them to the Rockets and Warriors.  Amazingly, they're only 4.5 games out of the playoffs in the West, and they are clearly motivated to get this thing turned around.

"We obviously know we have a legit shot," Dirk Nowitzki said. "We've got to put a little string together and we've got to play better. We've got to find a way in close games to close some of those out and not always come out on the losing end. I don't think we're really playing for draft position.  We're playing to win every night."

I think this is a great spot to fade the Washington Wizards.  They are coming off a 91-101 loss to the Rockets on the road last night, blowing a 15-point lead after the first quarter.  Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back here, while the Mavs have had three days off in between games having last played on Friday.

The Mavericks have owned the Wizards, going 11-1 straight up in the last 12 meetings dating back to 2010.  The Wizards are 1-5 SU when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this season, and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in this situation.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +10

Now healthy for the first time all season, the New Orleans Pelicans are starting to show what they are capable of.  They have own four straight coming in and will be motivated to take on the defending champion Cavaliers tonight to show what they are made of.

The Cavaliers come in overvalued due to having won seven of their last eight games overall.  They are at a disadvantage here because they have only one day off in between games, while the Pelicans have had two days off to get ready for the Cavaliers.

The Pelicans have really had the Cavs' number in recent meetings, too.  They have won five of the last seven meetings overall, and eight of the last 11 as well.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6

The Indiana Pacers have underachieved up to this point of the season.  And I think they're going to be a good bet moving forward here.  I certainly like backing them at home as they are 12-5 SU & 9-8 ATS in home games this season.

I think the Orlando Magic come into this game overvalued.  They have gone 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But they are coming off a 101-120 home loss to the Hornets, and they played that game without leading scoring Evan Fournier, who is questionable to play again tonight.

This is a matchup that the Pacers clearly love.  In fact, the Pacers are 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Magic.  They have absolutely dominated the Magic at home, going 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings with ALL nine victories coming by 10 points or more.  I think another double-digit victory can be expected here.  Roll with the Pacers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -11

The Utah Jazz are finally getting back to full strength as George Hill has returned to the lineup.  Hill is second on the team in scoring (20.1 ppg) and 1st in assists (4.3 apg).  He has only played in 12 games this season, and they won the last five in which he did.

Hill had 21 points, 8 boards and 6 assists in his return to the lineup on Thursday in a 100-83 win over Philadelphia.  The fact that the Jazz have posted a 20-13 record this season with Hill missing so much time just shows how good this team really is.  They're going to be very dangerous moving forward.

The Phoenix Suns are just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They  haven't even been competitive as five of those six losses came by 13 points or more.  And the Suns are in a letdown spot off a huge home win over the Raptors on Thursday, but that was an awful spot for Toronto after playing the Warriors the night before.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings, winning by a whopping 17.2 points per game on average.  The domination continues today as Utah rolls to a blowout home victory.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* Bulls/Pacers NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -4

The Indiana Pacers are undervalued right now after going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  All four losses came by 7 points or less, and three of them came on the road.  But the Pacers are 11-5 at home this season and are primed to bounce back here.

Adding to the Pacers' motivation is the fact that they just lost to the Bulls 85-90 on the road on Monday.  So, they are going to be out for revenge.  Paul George voiced his frustration with the officiating in that game as the Bulls shot 28 free throws compared to just 10 for the Pacers.  Don't be surprised if the refs favor the Pacers in the rematch.

The Bulls haven't exactly been world beaters of late and are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.  They are 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with two of their victories coming by a combined 7 points.  One was a 101-99 home victory over lowly Brooklyn as 9.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

Indiana has won 33 of its last 45 home meetings with Chicago.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Indiana.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  Indiana is 23-8 ATS when playing four or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are hungry for a victory after losing two straight and five of their last seven.  They are now undervalued here as only 1.5-point home favorites here because of their recent losing ways, but this is still one of the better teams in the Western Conference at 20-14 on the season.

It's the perfect storm really because the Oklahoma City Thunder coming in overvalued due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have mostly feasted on some poor opponents as their last six games have come against the Suns, Hawks, Pelicans, Celtics, Timberwolves and Heat.  Now they take a step up in class here tonight.

The Grizzlies have been a thorn in the Thunder's side, winning four of the last seven meetings, and all of those were with Kevin Durant on the team.  And home-court advantage has meant a lot in this series of late as well as they home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite it 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. 

Oklahoma City is 3-13 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 11-1 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four Thursday games.  Bet the Grizzlies Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -5

We'll gladly fade the Los Angeles Clippers, who are short-handed right now playing without their two best players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, and even J.J. Redick is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  The results haven't been good for the Clippers without these guys.

They have now lost three in a row to some very bad teams.  They lost 88-90 at home to the Mavericks, 102-111 on the road to the Lakers and 102-106 at home to the Nuggets.  Now this will really be their first true road game without them because they played the Lakers inside Staples obviously.

The Pelicans are certainly a 'play on' team moving forward.  They have won three of their last four coming in, and it's no coincidence as it has come during the point in which the Pelicans have been at their healthiest all year.  They have their three-headed monster of Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans together for the first time all year.  They are clicking on offense, scoring at least 100 points in eight of their last nine contests.

The Clippers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  The Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Clippers are 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

We are getting the Detroit Pistons at a cheap price Wednesday because they have lost five of their last six coming in. It was five straight before a 106-90 home win over Cleveland on Monday.  The Pistons are now 9-7 SU & 10-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points per game.

Milwaukee is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one.  The Bucks have struggled on the road all season, going 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 games away from home.

The Pistons have owned the Bucks lately, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  And the home team has dominated this series of late as well, going 9-2 straight up in the last 11 meetings.

Detroit is 27-13 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games after having lost four of their last five games coming in.  The Bucks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat +3

The Miami Heat are showing great value as home underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder here tonight.  They come in undervalued after losing four of their last five games, but all four losses came by 10 points or fewer so they were competitive in all of them.  And the Heat have quietly gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Heat have had some extra time off here over Christmas.  They haven't played since December 23rd, so they will be giving their best effort after having the past three days off.  The Thunder played on Christmas Day in a home win over Minnesota and don't have that same luxury.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Thunder haven't exactly been world beaters on the road this season, going 6-7 ATS while giving up 108.4 points per game away from home.

Oklahoma City is 16-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after having won four of their last five games coming in.  The Heat are 19-8 ATS in home games with a total set of 200 or more over the last two seasons.

Plays on home underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 113-66 (63.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after three or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team (102-plus PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Heat Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver Nuggets -1

The Denver Nuggets want revenge from a 102-119 loss at Los Angeles just six days ago on December 20th.  They were in a tough spot that day as they were playing the second of a back-to-back.  They proceeded to blow an 8-point lead in the final two minutes against the Hawks their next time out, so it's safe to say they will be highly motivated here.

This time around, it's the Clippers in the tough spot.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days here.  They have lost to the Mavericks 88-90 and the Lakers 102-111 in their last two games, and a big reason for that is all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Chris Paul is expected to miss this game after sitting out against the Lakers.  Blake Griffin remains out, and J.J. Redick just suffered a hamstring injury against the Lakers and is doubtful.  The short-handed, tired Clippers have no chance of hanging with the motivated, well-rested Nuggets who will be playing on two days' rest tonight.  Take the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +13

The Phoenix Suns just played the Houston Rockets five days ago on December 21st in a 111-125 home loss.  The Rockets shot 18-of-38 from 3-point range and aren't likely to hit at that kind of clip again.  I look for the Suns to be out for revenge in this rematch just five days later.

And the Suns were 6-point home dogs in the first meeting, and now they're 13-point dogs in the rematch in Houston. That is a ton of extra value because the Suns actually tend to play better on the road because they have a very small home-court advantage.  And they are definitely better ATS on the road because they are consistently catching big numbers.

Plays against home favorites (HOUSTON) - after allowing 100 points or more four straight games against opponent after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games playing on 2 days rest.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Suns won 124-115 as 12.5-point dogs and 117-102 as 7.5-point dogs in their last two trips to Houston.  Phoenix is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 trips to Houston dating back further.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals Rematch on Golden State -2.5

The Golden State Warriors have had this game circled on their calendars every since they blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals to the Cavaliers.  They are going to want this game more, and I expect one of their best performances of the season because of it.

The difference in the rematch is now they have Kevin Durant, who has made the Warriors that much more dangerous.  They are off to a 27-4 start to the season and have been playing tremendous of late, winning seven straight, including four straight on the road.

I think the Cavaliers come in overvalued due to four straight victories themselves.  However, those four have come against the likes of the Lakers, Nets and Bucks (twice).  The Cavs will be without JR Smith for this one, and they'll certainly miss his shooting against the Warriors here.

Golden State is 10-1 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* Celtics/Knicks ESPN Early Riser on UNDER 211.5

I think both the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks will be sleep-walking through the first part of this game Sunday that's set for a 12:00 EST tip.  Both offenses will struggle in the first half, which will help keep this total UNDER the posted number of 211.5.

Recent head-to-head history suggests that this number has been inflated.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 209 or fewer in five of those contests.  They have averaged 201.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is roughly 10 points less than this 211.5-point total.

Boston is 14-4 UNDER off a home loss over the last two seasons.  New York is 13-4 UNDER in Sunday games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 25-9 in Celtics last 34 games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 29-14 in Knicks last 43 games playing on two days' rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Nuggets -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks and Denver Nuggets are two teams headed in opposite directions.  The Hawks are just 5-13 SU & 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They just cannot seem to get on track, and they are getting way too much respect here as only 3.5-point road dogs.  They are playing without their center in Dwight Howard on Friday, too.

The Nuggets have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  All three wins came at home by double-digits, while the lone loss came on the road at the Los Angeles Clippers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  That was a tough spot and an understandable loss.

But the reason the Nuggets are playing so much better now is because they are as healthy as they've been all season.  There is no team with more depth than this Nuggets squad.  Gary Harris recently returned to the lineup and has provided a huge spark, averaging 12.8 points on 51.8% shooting, including 46.2% from 3-point range in just nine games this year.  The Nuggets have a ridiculous 10 players averaging at least 9.0 points per game, so they don't miss a beat when their bench comes in.

Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  The home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Denver is 17-3 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +3.5

The Houston Rockets are way overvalued right now due to going 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  Now they're being asked to lay 3.5 points on the road to one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

The Rockets just lost their starting center in Clint Capela two games ago with a broken fibula.  He averages 11.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.  They really missed him in a loss to the Spurs the other night, but they didn't miss him against the Suns, who are guard-oriented.

Capela's absence will really be in issue against the Grizzlies, who play their 'grit and grind', inside-out style.  Marc Gasol averages 20.1 points per game this season and will have a huge game in the paint.  The same can be said for Zach Randolph.

And the Grizzlies are now as healthy as they've been all season with the recent returns of Mike Conley, James Ennis, Vince Carter and Chandler Parsons.  They had all of these guys available against the Pistons on Wednesday, and they won 98-86 as 6-point road dogs despite playing the second of a back-to-back off an OT game.  It was a gutsy effort to say the least, and they will want to put the Rockets in their place tonight.

The Rockets rely more on the 3-pointer than any team in the NBA.  But the Grizzlies defend the 3-pointer better than most.  They allow an average of 9 made 3-pointers on 27 attempts per game at a 33.5% clip.  The Grizzlies only give up 93.9 points per game at home this year.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.4 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 home games off a road win by 10 points or more.  The Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Charlotte Hornets are in a great spot here.  They have had two days off since beating the Lakers at home on Tuesday, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.  They will be fresh and ready to go, and they don't play again until Monday, so they will be putting a lot into this game.

The Chicago Bulls are broken right now.  They are just 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, yet they are getting massive respect from oddsmakers here as only 3-point dogs.  They rank dead last in the NBA in 3-point shooting, and they are also dead last in 4th quarter scoring.  They simply cannot get easy buckets.  And nothing comes easy against the Hornets, who rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings.  The only exception was a 102-96 road win by the Hornets last season.  The Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Bulls, winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.  The Bulls haven't even come close to beating them, losing all three games by double-digits.  This is a very cheap price for the home team.  Take the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -5

The New York Knicks are undervalued right now because they have lost three of their last four games coming in.  But all three losses came on the road in the final three games of a 5-game trip, and they bounced back with a 118-111 home victory over Indiana in their first game back in New York on Tuesday.

There is an energy surrounding this Knicks team this year because they are finally relevant.  And the fans have shown up to show their support, which has aided them at home.  In fact, the Knicks are now 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  This is a very short price for them to be laying.

I think the price is short because while the Knicks are undervalued right now, the Magic are overvalued due to going 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have been beating up on some bad teams lately with their last three wins coming against the Heat, Nets and Hawks.  They were beaten by the Clippers and Raptors (by 30) in their two losses over their last five contests, both coming at home.

The Knicks are 11-2 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season.  Orlando is 4-13 ATS in road games versus teams that win 51% to 60% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The Magic are 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New York.  Take the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Houston Rockets just had their 10-game winning streak snapped with a 100-102 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night.  They blew a 13-point lead in the final five minutes.  I think off that deflating loss that ended their streak, they won't show up at all tonight in Phoenix.

The Rockets are going to be a 'play against' team in the short-term because they are overvalued due to that winning streak.  Not only that, but they are now without their center Clint Capela due to a broken fibula suffered two games ago.  His injury is getting overlooked.  Capela averages 11.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.  The Rockets will miss him because he does all the dirty work inside.

This is also a bad spot for the Rockets because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 6 days and their 8th game in 13 days.  The Suns had yesterday off and come in undervalued after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.

The Suns are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up loss.  Phoenix is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS loss.  The Rockets are 15-31 ATS in their last 46 meetings with the Suns.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Houston is 14-25 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls are undervalued due to losing six of their last nine games overall.  But they turned the corner with a 113-82 home win over Detroit on Monday, and I look for another big effort from them here tonight as only 4-point home favorites over the Washington Wizards.  This will only be their 2nd game in 5 days so they're rested and ready to go.

Conversely, the Wizards come in overvalued due to going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  All five victories came at home, but they are 0-2 in their two road games at Miami and Indiana.  The Wizards are now 2-9 SU & 4-7 ATS in 11 road games on the season.

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Bulls have won three of their last four home meetings with the Wizards all by at least 5 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.

Chicago is 70-47 ATS in its last 117 home games after failing to cover four of its last five games against the spread coming in.  The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -6

The Detroit Pistons are highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost three straight games by double-digits coming in, which has them undervalued.  Stan Van Gundy has ripped their effort, and I expect them to respond in a big way tonight.

It helps that the Pistons face a Memphis Grizzlies team that is running on fumes right now.  Indeed, the Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations a team can be in.

Making matters worse for the Grizzlies is that they went to overtime against Boston last night.  Ton Allen played 38 minutes, Mike Conley played 36 and Marc Gasol played 37.  I don't see Memphis having much left to give, which is a bad combination when you consider the hunger that the Pistons will be playing with.

Detroit is 13-2 ATS in home games after having lost four of its last five games over the past three seasons.  The Pistons are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games as home favorites.  The Grizzlies are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Cavs UNDER 209

I was on the UNDER 212.5 in the Cavs/Bucks game last night and it was a very bad beat.  The game ended up tied 100-100 at the end of regulation for 200 combined points, but overtime sent it over the total.  We'll get our money back and then some by taking the UNDER 209 tonight.

I really like taking the UNDER in these second of home-and-home situations.  These teams play again tonight and are obviously very familiar with one another not only because they played last night, but also because this will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  Points are harder to come by when teams are familiar with each other.  Not to mention, both teams will be fatigued in this 2nd of a back-to-back, which hurts offense more than defense.

A big reason I liked the UNDER last night was because Kevin Love wasn't playing, and he's questionable to return to the floor tonight.  The Cavs really miss his offense, but they are a better defensive team without him.  And now J.R. Smith likely has a broken thumb that he suffered last night and will miss an extended period of time.  Smith helps the Cavs space the floor and his shooting will be missed, too.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +9

Most of the time I'm looking to fade teams on the 2nd of back-to-backs.  But that's not the case for certain teams like the Denver Nuggets, who have a young nucleus that isn't phased by these situations.  And the Nuggets have one of the best benches in the NBA, which makes them less vulnerable than most teams in these spots.

The Nuggets have finally gotten healthy as Gary Harris just returned to the lineup and is lighting it up.  They currently have nobody on the injury report for the first time all season, and as a result they are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three straight double-digit victories over Portland (by 12), New York (by 13) and Dallas (by 10).

Another reason I'm not worried about backing the Nuggets in this 2nd of a back-to-back is because this will still only be their 4th game in 8 days.  Plus, they have two days off after this game, so they are going to put all their eggs into one basket here and give it their best effort.

I'll gladly fade the Los Angeles Clippers as 9-point favorites here.  They just suffered a big blow when Blake Griffin was injured in a 110-117 loss to Washington on Sunday.  Griffin had to have knee surgery and will miss three-to-six weeks to recover.  The Clippers have been lost without him in the past, and they will be lost without him moving forward.  There's no way they should be laying 9 points without him, especially with how well the Nuggets are playing coming in.

Denver is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 games as road underdogs.  Los Angeles is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  This is the Clippers' first game home from a 3-game road trip.  The last time they returned home from an extended road trip they lost to the Pacers 102-111 as 11.5-point favorites on December 4th.  Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bucks UNDER 212.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to want revenge from a 101-118 loss at Milwaukee on November 29th in their first meeting this season.  They were going through their worst stretch of the season during that loss, but have since won six of their last seven games coming in.

The biggest reason for their improvement has been their emphasis on defense.  They have allowed 94 or fewer points in four of their last six games coming in.  And after giving up 118 to Milwaukee in that loss, they will be motivated to shut down the Bucks in the rematch.

The Bucks have been playing stingy defense of their own, allowing just 83.0 points per game in their last two contests.  And their job just got a whole lot easier with Kevin Love now doubtful to play tonight with a knee injury.  Love really makes the Cavs' offense go, and without him they are just a shell of themselves.  But the Cavs are actually a better defensive team without Love in there as he is clearly a liability on that end.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 35-11 (76.1%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 40-13 (75.5%) over the past five years.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Bucks last 52 games following a straight up win.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks -5.5

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They have lost three straight games to end their recent five-game road trip.  They'll be looking to get back on the winning track here.  They have been a very resilient team this year as this is the first time that they've lost more than two in a row.

And the main reason they have lost three in a row is because star PG Derrick Rose has missed the past three games due to injury.  Rose is expected to return to the lineup as he practiced on Monday and was symptom-free of his nagging back injuries.  Rose is averaging 16.4 points and 4.4 assists this season while proving to be a huge addition to this roster.

The biggest reason I like the Knicks is because they have a huge rest advantage here.  They last played on Saturday, giving them two days off in between games to get ready for the Pacers tonight.  Meanwhile, Indiana will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they are short-handed right now, missing both Monte Ellis and Rodney Stuckey, who are instant offense for them.  They have had to play their weak bench bigger minutes as guys like Al Jefferson, Glenn Robinson and Aaron Brooks saw significant time last night, especially Robinson and his five points in 30 minutes.

The Knicks are 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season, while the Pacers are 4-10 SU & 4-10 ATS on the road.  New York is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.  The Knicks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 110 points or more in their previous game.  New York is 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a dog this season. The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its lat five games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6

The Washington Wizards are in a very tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after topping the Clippers 117-110 at home last night as 5.5-point underdogs.  After that huge win over the Clippers, it's only fitting that they would have a letdown here.

Meanwhile, the Pacers had yesterday off after a nice 105-90 road win at Detroit on Saturday.  The Pacers have been handling their business at home this season, going 10-4 SU & 8-6 ATS on their home floor.  I think they are worth the price as only 6-point favorites here.

The Washington Wizards have also been a great home team, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Wizards are just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in road games this season.  The Pacers have won four of their last five meetings against the Wizards.

The Wizards are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days' rest.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -4

The Boston Celtics are as healthy as they've been all season as everyone on the roster is a full go now.  They have battled injuries through the first quarter of the season, and that's why they are only 14-12.  But this is one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference when healthy, and they're going to be showing value going forward.

The Celtics also come into this game against the Miami Heat hungry for victories.  They lost three straight before a solid 96-88 home win over Charlotte as 6-point favorites on Friday.  That followed a tough 3-game skid with a 7-point loss to Toronto, a 3-point road loss at OKC and a 7-point road loss at San Antonio.  Those are three of the best teams in the NBA, and leading scorer Isaiah Thomas didn't play in any of them.  He returned against the Hornets last game and promptly scored 26 points to lead the way.

The Miami Heat have a ton of injury concerns of their own that are hampering them.  They are just 9-18 on the season, including 4-9 at home.  They remain without Dion Waiters and Chris Bosh, and both Wayne Ellington and Tyler Johnson are questionable for this game.  The Heat are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here due to their 4-0 ATS run coming in.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Celtics are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Heat since the start of last season.  They have won all four meetings by at least 8 points and by an average of 10.0 points per game.  The Heat just don't have an answer for them, especially short-handed now and against a fully healthy Boston outfit.

Boston is 14-3 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 36-17 ATS in the last 53 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have had three days off since one of their most impressive performances of the season, a 99-94 road win at Chicago as 5.5-point dogs.  They have had ample time to rest up and prepare to face the Houston Rockets, and they'll be motivated to end Houston's 9-game winning streak, while also putting an end to a 7-game skid in this series with the Rockets.

The Rockets come in overvalued due to this 9-game winning streak, and they are at a severe disadvantage in terms of rest and preparation.  The Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as difficult a situation as you'll find in the NBA.

The Rockets just broke the NBA record by making 24 3-pointers last night against the Pelicans on a NBA-record 61 attempts.  It's only natural for them to have a letdown off that feat, and I expect their streak to come to an end tonight.

Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 Saturday games.  The Rockets are 14-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves have covered their last two games and are going to be a great bet going forward as they continue buying in to what Tom Thibodeau is preaching after a slow start to the season.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 204

This is the classic home-and-home game where the Bucks and Bulls played last night in Milwaukee, and now they're playing tonight in Chicago.  I always look to back the UNDER in these situations for a number of reasons.

First, these teams are obviously familiar with one another after just playing last night.  Points are usually harder to come back because of it.  Second, both teams are a little fatigued playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and that usually hurts the offense more than the defense.

Milwaukee beat Chicago 108-97 last night for 205 combined points.  With this total set at 204, they basically just need one less basket to get the UNDER.  And the previous two meetings between these teams stayed UNDER this total with combined scores of 200 and 190 points in their final two meetings last season.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings as well.

Chicago is 29-16 UNDER revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 12-3 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The UNDER is 23-8 in Bucks last 31 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Bulls last eight games playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat +7

The Miami Heat are about as healthy as they've been all season.  Only Chris Bosh and Dion Waiters are out, while Tyler Johnson is questionable to play tonight.  They had as many as seven guys on the injury report recently, and now they have only three.

As they've gotten healthier, the Heat has started to play up to their potential here of late.  They have won two in a row while covering the spread in three straight.  They only lost 100-105 in Chicago as 9.5-point dogs, beat Washington 112-101 as 1-point home dogs and beat Indiana 95-89 as 1-point home dogs.

The Clippers continue to be overvalued following their torrid start to the season.  They have gone just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They only won 113-108 in Orlando as 8.5-point favorites two nights ago, and now this price seems steep again to me as 7-point road chalk over the Heat.

Los Angeles is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Clippers are 0-8 ATS off three or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Roll with the Heat Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +2

The Washington Wizards have started to show some life here recently.  John Wall called them out for their lack of effort in a home loss to the Magic.  Since then, they've won three out of four with all three victories coming at home.  I look for them to win a 4th straight home game tonight here against the Detroit Pistons.

The Wizards are now 8-6 at home this season, while the Pistons are just 6-9 SU & 6-9 ATS on the road.  This Detroit team has been dominant at home, but it has one of the worst home/away splits in the NBA.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Detroit.  The home team is 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.  The Wizards are 4-0 in their last four home meetings with the Pistons, winning by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +1

The Denver Nuggets are primed for a big performance tonight at home.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now as they currently have nobody on the injury report expected to miss this game.  Gary Harris is back in the lineup, and the Nuggets are going to be a good bet in the near future.

I think this is a good spot to back them because they have had two days off in between games after last playing on Monday.  They will also be motivated to avenge two close losses to Portland already this season with a 113-115 home loss on October 29th and a 105-112 road loss on November 13th.

Portland will be playing its 6th game in 9 days here, and playing in the altitude in Denver won't help matters.  The Blazers are just 5-10 on the road this season.  Portland is 3-8 ATS in its last 13 road games.  The Blazers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a win.  Roll with the Nuggets Thursday.

15* Bulls/Bucks TNT Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -2

The Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight coming in to fall one game below .500 on the season.  Look for them to get back on track at home here, where they are 8-6 on the season.

The Bucks will be primed for a big performance because they have had two days off in between games after last playing on Monday.  The Bulls are just 6-7 in road games this year and are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.  The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Bucks Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The Indiana Pacers are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the most difficult situations for any team in the NBA.

The New Orleans Pelicans had yesterday off after nearly upsetting the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday.  They only lost that game 109-113 as 11-point home underdogs.  I look for them to be a good bet going forward, especially now that they are as healthy as they have been at any point this season.

The Pacers are just 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game and giving up a whopping 113.6 points per game away from home.  Indiana is 0-9 ATS after a game where the opponent had 65 or more rebounds over the past three seasons.  The Pacers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Celtics/Spurs ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs on National TV.  Points will be very hard to come by in this matchup, especially with the Celtics playing without their best player in Isaiah Thomas.

Not having Thomas does a couple things for the Celtics.  While it makes them way worse off offensively, it's actually an upgrade for them defensively.  It means that Marcus Smart plays more minutes, and he may be the best defender that they have.  Not to mention Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley are already plus defenders.

The last two games without Thomas have been very low-scoring as the Celtics lost 94-101 to the Raptors for 195 combined points and they lost 96-99 to the Thunder for 195 combined points.  Both the Thunder and Raptors are elite offensive teams as well.

Boston is playing at a much slower tempo this year as it ranks 19th in pace.  San Antonio is playing at a snail's pace, ranking 27th in the NBA in pace.  But the Spurs will get after you defensively as they rank 5th in defensive efficiency.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spurs last seven games overall.  We've seen 196 or fewer combined points in five of those contests.

Boston is 17-4 UNDER off a road loss by 6 points or less over the past three seasons.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Celtics last eight vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 13-5 in Celtics last 18 games overall.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Spurs last 26 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Jazz UNDER 200

The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to show signs of wearing down.  They only managed 99 points against Houston, 99 against Boston and then 95 against Portland last night in their last three games, respectively.  Now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here, and they could be without Victor Oladipo again, who sat out last night.

Points are going to be even harder to come by tonight against a Utah team that locks you down defensively.  The Jazz rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 101.3 points per 100 possessions.  And the Jazz prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 29th in the NBA in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.

The Jazz will control the tempo playing at home here.  And the Jazz remain without starting point guard George Hill, who is second on the team in scoring.  Not having him has hampered their offense.  Nothing will come easy for the Jazz either as the Thunder rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City have seen 200 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  And all of those were with Kevin Durant playing for the Thunder.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Salt Lake City.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder's last five games overall.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder's last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder's last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oklahoma City is 9-0 to the UNDER off three straight games with 55 or more rebounds this season.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +7

The Minnesota Timberwolves are about as undervalued as you will find them all season right now.  That's because they are off to a 6-18 start to the season.  But this team is much better than their record as they have consistently blown leads throughout the season.

I think the Timberwolves players are really going to want to win this game for head coach Tom Thibodeau, who will be coaching against his former team in the Chicago Bulls for the first time.  Things didn't exactly end well for him in Chicago, and he wants to stick it to the Bulls tonight.

The Bulls just have a tendency of playing up and down to their competition.  They have beaten Cleveland and San Antonio recently, but they also have a home loss to the Lakers and a 25-point loss to the Mavs in recent weeks.  I don't think we will get an 'A' effort here from the Bulls, either.

The Timberwolves swept the season series with the Bulls last year, winning 112-105 as 3.5-point home favorites and 102-93 as 9.5-point road dogs.  Chicago is 16-29 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 12-26 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40% over the last three years.

Plays on road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +14

The Houston Rockets are as overvalued as they are going to be all season right now.  That's because they have won six straight coming in while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  And they are 17-7 ATS on the season, so the betting public has made a killing off of them.

But I question how much the Rockets will actually be motivated to beat the Brooklyn Nets, let alone beat them by 15-plus points, which is what it would take to cover this number.  And the Rockets haven't shown up for the Nets in recent meetings.  Brooklyn is 3-0 ATS in the last three, winning outright 110-105 as 5-point home dogs, winning outright 106-98 as 11.5-point road dogs, and only losing 98-102 as 8-point road dogs.

Conversely, the Nets come in undervalued after losing four of their last five, including a 29-point blowout at San Antonio last time out.  But they were competitive in their previous three games, losing by just 9 and 5 points, while also beating Denver by 5 points.

And now the Nets are as healthy as they've been all season with Jeremy Lin back in the lineup.  They don't have any players expected to miss this game.  And they'll be rested and ready to go as this is just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Brooklyn is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Take the Nets Monday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +11

The Golden State Warriors are in about as tough a spot as they've been all season tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 5 days.  They started showing signs of wearing down last night in an 89-110 loss at Memphis as 13-point favorites, and they certainly won't be in any better shape tonight.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are about as undervalued as they're going to be all season.  That's because they have gone just 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  I'm willing to overlook that because they always get up for teams like Golden State.

In fact, the Timberwolves have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Warriors.  They haven't lost by more than 13 points in any of those seven meetings.  And after Ricky Rubio called out the team for their lack of effort following a bad loss to the Pistons on the 2nd of a back-to-back last time out, I expect an inspired effort from them here tonight.

Minnesota is 10-1 ATS off three straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or more over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -2.5

The Orlando Magic are running on fumes right now, and it's starting to show.  The Magic have been blown out in back-to-back games with an 87-117 home loss to Detroit and an 88-109 road loss at Charlotte last night.

It's easy to see why this team is struggling right now.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days and their 7th game in 10 days tonight.  That's as tough of a schedule as you will find in the NBA.

The Denver Nuggets come in the fresher team after having yesterday off.  They also come in motivated after losing two straight and five of their last six with four of those losses coming by 8 points or less.  They are ready to get a win here tonight against the gassed Magic.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that both starting C Nikola Vucevic and backup C Bismack Biyombo were injured last night and questionable to play today.  Denver is 20-5 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Denver is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Orlando.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -3.5

The New York Knicks are coming off a confidence-crushing 94-126 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night on ESPN.  They had won four straight prior to that game and were feeling pretty good, but it's going to be tough to recover from that loss in time to face the Sacramento Kings here two nights later.

That's especially the case considering the Knicks just beat the Kings 106-98 at home as 1.5-point favorites on Sunday.  They won't be motivated to beat the Kings again only five days later, while the Kings will be highly motivated for revenge here at home this time around.  I love this situation based on motivation.

The Kings are feeling pretty good after one of their best performances of the season in a 120-89 win at Dallas.  They went just 2-3 on their road trip, but all three losses came by 8 points or less to Washington, Boston and New York, so they were very competitive.  And the Kings still have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA as they are consistently undervalued at home.

I know Derrick Rose is questionable to play tonight after sitting out the Cavs game with a back injury, and I still would like the Kings at -4 even if he does play.  If he doesn't play it would only be an added bonus.  The Kings have actually won four of their last five meetings with the Knicks.

The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Sacramento is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven Friday games.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Kings are rested as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Knicks will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5.5

I think we'll see a big effort from the Washington Wizards tonight at home.  They are coming off a bad 116-124 home loss to the Orlando Magic.  I have to give them a little break because it was the 2nd of a back-to-back, but start PG John Wall, who scored 52 points in the loss, wasn't giving his teammates a break after the loss.

"Not even just defensive effort, just playing hard," Wall said. "Our job is to wake up and just play hard. Before you made it to the NBA or got a college scholarship, you played hard to get where you wanted to get to. To still be talking about playing hard. ... That's the easiest thing. Shouldn't have to do with any contracts or any money. Just come in and play basketball."

The Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They nearly erased a 29-point deficit in Brooklyn last night, but lost 111-116 in the end.  They used a lot of energy to make that comeback, and I don't see them having much left in the tank here tonight.

The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days rest.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Washington.  Roll with the Wizards Thursday.

15* Warriors/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers despise the Golden State Warriors.  They will be out to prove that they're contenders in the West, and they'll be more motivated for this game than any other this season.  I think this is a game that they win outright tonight, though we'll take the points for some insurance.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they have lost six straight to the Warriors.  But five of those six losses came by 8 points or fewer, so they have been right there with a chance to win in nearly all of those games.  I think they get over the top here tonight.

I like the fact that the Clippers have had two days off coming into this game to prepare for the Warriors.  They will be well-rested and ready to go.  The Warriors come in overvalued after their 142-106 home victory over Indiana on Monday where Klay Thompson scored 60 points.  The Pacers had upset the Clippers the night before and didn't show up.

Plays on home underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS since 1996.  The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -1

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They play in a small market and don't get much respect from the betting public or the books because of it.  This is a very nice value here with the Bucks as only 1-point favorites over the Blazers.

The Bucks are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by a final of 106-107 to the San Antonio Spurs as 6-point dogs.  They beat Cleveland 118-101 recently, and had narrow losses to Toronto (by 6) and Golden State (by 3) in the last few weeks, proving that they can play with anyone.

The Blazers come in overvalued off a 3-game winning streak.  They have beaten the Pacers, Heat and Bulls during this stretch, catching all of those teams in bad spots.  But the Blazers are getting outscored by 3.4 points per game on the road this season, while the Bucks are outscoring foes by 4.9 points per game at home.

Plays against road underdogs (PORTLAND) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 47-15 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The lazers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.  The Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.  Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets -5

The Detroit Pistons are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  This team is running on fumes right now and won't be able to bring a very good effort tonight against the Charlotte Hornets.

Meanwhile, the Hornets will be highly motivated to avenge an 89-112 home loss to the Pistons on November 29th just over a week ago.  That was a terrible spot for the Hornets as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, so they simply didn't have anything to give.

That was a rare loss for the home team in this series because the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hornets have won their previous three home meetings with the Pistons by 15, 20 and 22 points, or by an average of 19 points per game.  With the Pistons in the tough spot this time around, look for the Hornets to get back to blowing them out at home tonight.

Charlotte is 29-16 ATS in its last 45 games when revenging a loss of 10 points or more.  The Pistons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday games.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +5

The San Antonio Spurs are an impressive 12-0 on the road this season.  But they are being overvalued now due to this perfect road record, and they certainly should not be laying 5 points on the road tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves given the spot.

The Spurs should have lost last night to the Bucks on the road, but they escaped with a 97-96 win as 6-point favorites.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days.  Don't be surprised of Greg Popovich rests some of his key players here given the spot.

The Minnesota Timberwolves come in with momentum after erasing a 7-point deficit in the final minute to beat Charlotte on the road 125-120 in overtime.  Now the Timberwolves have had two days off in between games after beating the Hornets on Saturday.  This young team will be fresh and ready to go, and look for them to try to run the tired Spurs out of the gym.

"The way we're losing, not getting blown out but making mental errors late in the game, it hurt us. It hurts me, especially," Karl-Anthony Towns told the Star Tribune. "To have a win like that, I'm finally able to smile, laugh a lot more and have my spirits up."

Plays on underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  Take the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5.5

The Detroit Pistons have been a great bet at home this season as they are 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game.  They just returned one of their best players in starting PG Reggie Jackson, and he should continue to improve as the games go on.

We'll gladly fade the Chicago Bulls here in an awful spot.  The Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  They are coming off a 110-112 home loss to Portland last night after losing 82-107 in Dallas a couple nights before.  They are running on fumes right now and I don't expect much of an effort from them here.

The Pistons went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls last season.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Chicago as well.  Their domination against the spread in this series should continue tonight given the awful spot here for the Bulls.

Detroit is 25-10 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 14-4 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two years.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +4.5

The Dallas Mavericks are an undervalued team right now because of their 4-15 record on the season.  But they are starting to get healthy and playing much better basketball as a result.  They are 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games, which included a 107-82 beat down of the Chicago Bulls at home on Saturday.

Wesley Matthews had a season-high 26 points in the win while making seven of 11 from 3-point range, giving him 19 3s in his past four games.  Deron Williams recently returned to the lineup and is averaging 10.9 points and six assists.  Having him back has been the biggest key to their recent success.  He had a whopping 15 assists against the Bulls.

I like this spot for the Mavs because they just played the Hornets on December 1st in a 87-97 road loss.  Now they get to face them only four days later and will be out for revenge.  Look for them to get that revenge with an outright win tonight, though we'll take the 4.5 points for some added insurance.

The Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  Charlotte is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2

The Atlanta Hawks are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight and nine of their last 10 games overall.  Eight of those 10 games were on the road, but they finally return home tonight where they are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS on the season.

The Oklahoma City Thunder come in overvalued after winning five straight games with Russell Westbrook recording a triple-double in all five.  They wins have come against the Nuggets, Knicks, Pistons, Wizards and Pelicans.  But now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating New Orleans 101-92 at home last night.

A big reason the Hawks have been struggling is because they have been without Paul Millsap, but there is a good chance he returns tonight.  Conversely, Steven Adams was injured yesterday and is unlikely to play for the Thunder tonight.  They will miss his presence inside if he can't go.

The Thunder are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Take the Hawks Monday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -2.5

The New York Knicks continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as just 2.5-point home favorites here Sunday against the Sacramento Kings.  The Knicks have gone 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are really starting to play well together.

It was going to take some time for all the new faces to gel in New York, but it appears that they have found their groove, especially offensively.  The Knicks have scored at least 102 points in nine consecutive games.  That has to be refreshing for Knick fans after points have been so hard to come by in previous seasons.  Jeff Hornacek is doing a tremendous job in his first season.

The Sacramento Kings are getting too much respect here.  They will be playing their 4th straight road game, and they are just 3-7 on the road this season.  The Knicks are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this year, defending their home court very well.

Sacramento is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 road games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  New York is 54-28 ATS in its last 82 after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5

The Portland Trail Blazers had a team meeting about their defense before their last game and will be a 'play on' team for me going forward for a few games.  They have come together and are way undervalued right now after losing six of their last nine games overall.

But the Blazers responded in a big way in their first game after addressing the issue, beating the Pacers 131-109 as 7.5-point home favorites.  Now they are hosting a worse Miami Heat team and only laying 6.5 points here tonight, clearly showing that they remain undervalued.

Miami comes in overvalued after winning back-to-back road games at Denver and Utah.  But the Nuggets are playing terrible right now and are banged-up, while the Jazz were missing three of their best players in George Hill, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors.  The Heat's road winning streak comes to an end here in a big way, especially since they'll be without key players Justice Winslow, Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson and Luke Babbitt, and they could be without Derrick Williams as well.

The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Blazers have won by 17 and 16 points in their last two home meetings with the Heat.  Miami is 13-27 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  Plays against any team (MIAMI) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Take the Blazers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

This is the classic home-and-home situation.  The Nets lost to the Bucks 93-111 at home on Thursday.  Now they're playing just two days later, and I'm almost always inclined to take the team that lost the first meeting because they're going to be the more motivated team.

I really like when the home team loses and then taking them on the road in the second meeting.  That's because we get more value, and that's the case here with the Nets catching 9.5 points.  This is a game that they could win outright as they are very familiar with the Bucks having played them twice already, and I can't see the Bucks being too motivated to beat them a 3rd time this year.

Adding to the value is the fact that Milwaukee is overvalued right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall coming in.  That includes a win over the defending champion Cavaliers.  But now the Bucks have the Spurs on deck and certainly could be looking ahead to that game.

Milwaukee is 3-17 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 2-11 ATS off three or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  The Bucks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

25* ESPN Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -2.5

This is my favorite play of the young NBA season thus far.  We'll take the Denver Nuggets as slim 2.5-point home favorites over the Houston Rockets in a game that you'll get to watch on ESPN tonight.  This game has the makings of a blowout in favor of the home team for a number of reasons.

First, Houston just beat Golden State in double-OT last night 132-127.  This is a tired team right now because of it at James Harden played 46 minutes, Ryan Anderson played 45 and Trevor Ariza played 43.  They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Nuggets.

Second, this is obviously a letdown spot for the Rockets now.  They just went on the road and beat the team that everyone expects to win the NBA title this season.  They won't be able to get up for the Nuggets here, and the spot is even tougher since they will be playing in altitude in the Mile High City.

Third, the Nuggets come in pissed off after a bad home loss to the Miami Heat last time out.  They gave the game away by committing 19 turnovers after previously fixing that problem by giving it away 12 or fewer times in four of their previous five contests.

Fourth, the Nuggets are getting healthy as Will Barton and Darrell Arthur are both expected to be available tonight.  Only Gary Harris is out for certain, so they're as healthy as they've been all season.  Barton didn't play in the loss to the Heat and is a huge weapon for them offensively.

Fifth, Denver has had Houston's number recently, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Houston is 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall, and 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Denver.  The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Knicks UNDER 210

This is a home-and-home situation for the Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks.  New York beat Minnesota 106-104 on the road Wednesday night.  Now these teams are extremely familiar with one another, which favors the UNDER and a defensive battle as they are playing again just two nights later.

And these teams have certainly played in their share of defensive battles of late.  They haven't combined for more than 210 points in any of their last four meetings.  They have averaged 196.8 combined points at the end of regulation in their last four meetings, which is more than 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 210.

New York is 23-6 UNDER versus teams who score at least 103 points per game over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 14-2 UNDER when the total is 210 or more over the last two seasons, including 9-1 UNDER in home games when the total is 210 or more over the last two years.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -2

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a great beat at home this season.  They are 9-3 ATS on their home floor and should make easy work of the Orlando Magic tonight.  After all, the 76ers haven't played since Monday, so they will be ready to get back into competition tonight after having three days off in between games.

The same cannot be said for the Magic, who are in a terrible spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They shocked the Spurs to open this road trip, but then lost to a short-handed Memphis team last night.  I look for this tough stretch to take its toll on the Magic here as they are out of gas and will come out flat tonight.

The Magic are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Orlando is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The 76ers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the 76ers Friday.