15* Marquee Money on Miami Heat +4.5

The Heat have been struggling a little bit lately, but you have to like catching the 4.5 points with them here tonight on their home floor against in-state rivals. Despite their 10-4 road record, the Magic are shooting 4% worse on the road than at home, while scoring more than five points per game less.

The Heat are a good matchup here because they defend the three so well. A lot of focus is always made on how Howard dominates the middle, and he does, but he is complemented by guys who shoot 37.3% from outside the arc (a number that drops slightly to 36.4% on the road). Miami does a good job of defending the perimeter though as they allow just 31.9% 3-point shooting at home.

Miami won in Orlando just a few weeks ago, and I think they pull off another close one here on their home floor again tonight.

15* NBA Blood Bath on Atlanta Hawks -9

It's tough not to like the Hawks at home tonight, even if we have to lay the big number. This team is 10-2 at home on the year, scoring 112.7 ppg against opponents who normally give up 99.6. They are also allowing 99.7 ppg against teams who usually score 99.1, so that's a hefty scoring differential.

Memphis on the other hand is just 4-9 on the road, giving up 109.7 ppg against teams who normally score just 99.6. They have done a good job of scoring though, putting up 101.6 ppg against teams who normally surrender 99.4.

The Hawks have won and covered four in a row, with an impressive win at Dallas followed by three straight double digit beat downs. I just can't see them letting up here as they continue to strive to be mentioned among the Eastern Conference elite.

15* on Charlotte Bobcats -4.5

The Knicks have gotten quite a bit of rest here lately, and normally that's a good thing. However, the style of play for New York relies on rhythm and tempo, meaning days off can be detrimental to their offensive performance. This team is just 4-7 on the road this year, giving up 106.6 ppg to teams that normally score 100.

Charlotte poses a tough challenge for the Knicks since they bring so much defensive intensity to the floor. That's a big reason they are 8-3 at home this year, allowing opponents to score only 89.8 ppg on 42% shooting (compared to their season averages of 99 ppg).

The Bobcats have been rolling at home here lately, beating Denver and Cleveland. I think they take care of business against the Knicks here tonight.

15* NBA Side of the Night on the Oklahoma City Thunder +10.5

The Nuggets are 10-1 at home this year and outscoring opponents 116.1 to 102.9, but I think those stats are a little misleading. Their opponents are giving up 100.2 ppg on average and scoring just 97.7. That means their foes have been pretty sub-standard, and yet this spread is set close to their average margin of victory.

Oklahoma City is much improved this year, going 6-4 on the road. The team has done it with defense, giving up just 95 ppg on the road against teams who put up over 100 on average. They also have plenty of guys who can score as well. I think the Thunder keep this game close via their defensive intensity, so getting double digits is a pretty nice gift.

15* NBA Total Dominator on Warriors/76ers UNDER 211.5

The Warriors have gone under in four straight games as they put up 88 against the Thunder, 105 against New Jersey, 91 against Chicago and 95 against Detroit. Philadelphia has had recent troubles on offense also, with 83 points against Denver, 86 against Detroit, and 91 against Houston, all at home.

Philadelphia is putting up 91.3 ppg at home this year against teams surrendering 97.6 and they are giving up 98.3 against teams scoring 98.6. That is a lot of low scoring. The fact that Golden State is putting up 107 on the year and giving up 111 is the reason this total is so high, but as evidenced by their recent play the UNDER is showing a lot of value here tonight.

15* Side of the Night on Phoenix Suns -3

Orlando just allowed the Utah Jazz to beat them by giving up 50% shooting on a lot of mid-range jump shots, well that's the Phoenix Suns specialty so unless something changes real quick, they are going to give up a lot of points again tonight.

Phoenix is scoring 118 ppg at home this year against teams that allow 100.8 on average, but their defense has actually been strong too, giving up just 103.7 ppg against teams scoring 100.1. That's a pretty impressive margin of victory, and a big reason this team is 7-0 playing in Phoenix.

I know Orlando has done a great job on the road (part of the reason I took them last night), but coming off a back-to-back and playing one of the best teams in the West, a team who likes to run and will cause matchup problems for the Magic, means they get beat again on Friday.

15* Total Dominator on Knicks/Hornets UNDER 205.5

***This was going to be my 20* for tonight but with the line dropping three points we lost just enough value for me to knock it down a little.***

The Hornets have cranked up the defense since getting Chris Paul back in the lineup, holding three straight opponents to under 96 points. At home they have been great this year, holding opponents who normally score 101.2 per game to 96.7, a decrease of five points. They don't score a whole lot either, going for 99.1 when their opponents surrender 100.1 on average. Also, this team gave up 117 points to the Knicks back in November, so you know they will be motivated on the defensive end of the floor tonight.

The Knicks can obviously put up the points, but on the road this year their games are averaging 209 ppg an dover the last five they are averaging 209 ppg. Even though that is slightly over the posted total right now, they are going to be playing a team that has been shutting down opponents more than their average foe, creating some value here with the UNDER.

15* NBA Total Value on Nets/Pacers UNDER 198

The Nets are scoring just 88.4 ppg on the road this year against teams who give up 99.4, while they are only allowing 98.3 ppg against teams who normally score 99.5

The Pacers are scoring just 96.6 ppg on the year against teams surrendering 100.3 and they are allowing 99.4 ppg at home against teams scoring 100.3. That means all four factors are pointing to fewer points in this game, yet the total is sitting right around a league average of 198.

These two teams have played each other once this year and the total was set at 189.5 and the final was still under at 91-83. I think the books are being overly generous since the Nets have given up quite a few points lately to teams like the Kings, Lakers, Mavs, and Knicks so I'd go with the UNDER here tonight.

25* Bailout Blowout on Orlando Magic -2.5

This boils down to the Jazz being a tired team and the line not reflecting it. Utah is going to be playing their 5th game in seven nights, which does not bode well for a thin squad like they have. Don't think these guys are a little tired right now? They were down 2 points to the Lakers heading into the 4th quarter last night but got torched 28-6 in the final frame for a 101-77 defeat. The last time they played a back-to-back was the 5th against the Timberwolves, and they lost by seven points as a seven point favorite.

Orlando is playing great right now, losing only one game since 11/11 and that was on Thanksgiving day in a close battle with the Heat. This team is traveling well with a 10-2 record on the road, allowing only 93.6 points per game as a visitor.

The Magic have also easily handled the Jazz in their last two meetings, winning 105-87 in Orlando and 103-94 in Utah. Lay this small number tonight as I think the visitors have their way with the tired Jazz!

15* Side of the Night on Houston Rockets +3

Cleveland is 7-4 on the road this year, but they have only scored 99.9 ppg against teams allowing 99.8 and have allowed 96.2 against teams that normally score 98.2, meaning they have been slightly better than mediocre.

The Rockets are 4-4 at home having put up 102.9 ppg against teams who allow 99.6 and allowing 102.7 against teams who score 101.1 so even though their record is .500 they have played against some tough foes to get there.

The Cavs have played a lot of games recently (this will be no. 5 in 8 days) and are coming off an OT loss in Memphis last night. Houston on the other hand is well-rested having not played since the 5th. I'll take the home dog tonight since there seems to be a few points of value there.

20* NBA Total Dominator on Warriors/Nets UNDER 218.5

Golden State is averaging 105.5 ppg against teams who give up 99.2 ppg on the year and they are giving up 115.5 ppg against teams who average 100.5. Since the Warriors are averaging 221 total points per game on the road and 225 over their last five we get to take advantage of an inflated total.

The key here is that they are playing New Jersey, a team that has scored only 88.3 ppg against teams who allow 98.7 ppg on the season and give up only 97.7 ppg against teams who score over 99. The Nets have won two out of their last three but know that they can't beat Golden State in a track meet. The fact that they slow the pace down so much means that for this total to get past 218 is they are going to have to play out of their element, which I don't see happening so I feel safe with the under.

20* NBA Total Domination on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 195.5

The Bucks are scoring just 93.6 ppg on the road this year on 42.3% shooting and in their last five games have shot just 41.7%. Boston has done a good job of scoring at home, putting up 101.7 ppg against teams giving up 100, but defensively they have been animals, allowing just 92 ppg against teams putting up on average 98.4. Boston's last five games have been an example of how to shut teams down, allowing just 89.6 ppg and not allowing a team to get more than 90 on their recent four game road trip. With a few extra days of rest heading into tonight, those fresh legs will be ready to slow down Milwaukee tonight in what should be a real low scoring game.

15* NBA Side of the Night on Charlotte Bobcats +3.5

The Nuggets are 7-4 on the road this year, but they have played teams that are getting beat by an average of 3 ppg, and when you break down the point scored, points against splits (102.9 for against teams giving up 100.4 and 99.8 allowed against scoring 97.5), means they are sitting right around an average team on the road.

The Bobcats are 7-3 in front of their home crowd, but have been what I would say is a fairly average team there (scoring 89.4 ppg against teams allowing 97.8 and allowing 90.4 against teams scoring 97.7), so the 3.5 points is generous.

Denver is coming off a win in San Antonio, then a win last night in Philadelphia against former teammate Allen Iverson. In two days they head up to Detroit where Billups came from, so having a non-conference opponent smashed in between spells letdown.

Great system supporting us here on this one that says to play on home teams with a losing record where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games. This team has gone 45-16 (74%) over the last 5 seasons WITHOUT EVEN NEEDING THE POINTS!

20* NBA Total Dominator on Blazers/Knicks OVER 201

I like to look at stats for my NBA totals quite a bit, but this is an exception. Portland has been playing great defensively, so it would be tough for me to take an OVER 200 with them under normal circumstances, but these aren't normal circumstances. Greg Oden had been playing great at center for this team this year, and he was a game changer on defense. Now that he is lost for the season I think their numbers will be a little higher. That plays right into New York's hands, and most of the time you expect the home team to set the tempo anyway. The Knicks are scoring almost 106 ppg at home, while giving up over 109 ppg. Combine the Knicks pace and Oden's injury, and there is quite a bit of value tonight with playing the OVER.

15* on Heat/Kings OVER 203.5

The Miami Heat are scoring 100.1 ppg on the road this year against teams giving up 99.6, but they are allowing 102.1 ppg against teams scoring 100.5. Sacramento is putting up 109.1 ppg at home against teams giving up 101.3 ppg and allowing 103 ppg against teams scoring 100.2. All four factors point to more points that the norm and with a total set so close to 200, I have to go with the OVER here tonight. A great system backs our play too that says to play the over when the total is greater than or equal to 200 when the road team is coming off a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games. Dating back the last 13 years this system is 44-16 (74%) for the OVER.

15* on Mavs/Hawks UNDER 204.5

These are two tired teams, as both the Mavs and Hawks are playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight. Each team played last night, which means they'll be extremely tired and will utilize their benches more in this one to try and keep everyone fresh. That favors a low-scoring game, and that's precisely what we will get Saturday. Atlanta is 24-10 UNDER in road games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 15-5 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Finally, the last 8 meetings in this series have all seen 201 or less combined points, so when these squads get together it typically results in a defensive battle. Take the UNDER.

20* NBA Friday No Doubt ATS Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

The Celtics just picked up a huge road win at San Antonio last night. They needed their starters to finish off that game as it was close throughout, which means it will be tough for them to come back and play on back-to-back nights. Now they face an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is one of the most underrated in the league. The Thunder have gone 10-8 this season, including 11-7 ATS. This team has put an emphasis on defense this year, allowing just 94.9 points/game. At home, OKC is outscoring their opponents by 6.6 points/game this season. The Celtics are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. OKC is 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games as a home underdog. The Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Oklahoma City.

15* on Milwaukee Bucks +3.5

The Bucks are also one of the most underrated teams in the league this season, posting a 9-8 record through 17 games. The Pistons are really hurting this year, going 6-12 through 18 games. They brought in Ben Gordon to help out their offense, but is hasn't worked as Detroit is scoring just 92.1 points/game this season, including 90.2 points/game at home. They have no post players who can score the basketball, and they live and die by the jump shot, which is never good in this league. The Pistons are 3-18 ATS after a division game over the last 2 seasons. Even worse, Detroit is 1-13 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are a superb 14-3 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons. In what is expected to be a low-scoring game, the Bucks have the offense to overcome Detroit on the road tonight. Take Milwaukee.

15* on San Antonio Spurs -1

The Spurs have won 9 of their last 12 home games vs. Boston, and tonight they'll chalk up another as just a small home favorite. San Antonio is an older team, so when they get rest it pays off more for them than most squads. The Spurs have had 3 days' rest in between games, and they'll come out with 100% effort tonight while hitting on all cylinders. The Spurs are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this year. The Spurs are 177-119 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days since 1996. Take San Antonio.

15* on Sacramento Kings PK

The Kings are 9-1 ATS after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons. This team is shooting lights out right now, and knowing that the Pacers give up 107.5 points/game on the road this season, I don't see Indiana slowing them down tonight. Sacramento is 7-2 at home this year, and have covered the spread in 7 of those 9 games. Take the Kings.

15* on Washington Wizards -3

This is a very generous line tonight for the Wizards to have to cover at home. Washington is finally healthy, with the Big 3 of Arenas, Jamison and Butler in the lineup, and this team can be as good as any team in the game when these 3 are on the floor. The Wizards are playing their best basketball right now, winning 3 of their last 4. The Bucks have come back down to reality, losing 4 of their last 5 with their only win coming by 2 points at home against the Bulls. The Bucks are just 2-5 on the road this season. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Take Washington.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on New York Knicks +13

This is one of those rare occasions in the NBA where a team plays another team in back-to-back games. The Magic beat the Knicks 114-102 on 11/29, and now they face New York again on 12/2 as Orlando has not played the past 2 days in between games. In the NBA, the team that loses the first game in this spot comes back to cover the spread in the second game most of the time. New York just put together their most complete game of the season last night, beating the Suns 126-99 at home. Their blowout win allowed them to rest starters, which will keep this team fresh and ready to go tonight in Orlando. The Knicks are a superb 23-7 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. New York is 14-3 ATS after playing 5 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. New York is 21-9 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take the Knicks.

15* on Raptors/Hawks OVER 210.5

Toronto is allowing 112.1 points/game on the road this season. This is one of the worst defensive teams in the game, even though they are getting it done offensively at a 104.8 points/game clip. Atlanta is scoring 106.4 points/game at home, and given all of the above averages, I see both teams putting up more than 105 points in this one to easily go OVER the number. Take the OVER.

15* on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5

Portland has been a very tough out at home this season, posting a 7-3 home record and winning by 9.3 points/game. They have been pesky defensively, allowing just 90.4 points/game on their home floor. This has become one of the best home-court advantages in the game as Portland fans constantly sell out their building to support this up-and-coming young team. The Blazers are 14-4 ATS in home games in December over the last 3 years. The Miami Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Portland is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Miami. Take the Blazers.

15* Heat/Blazers UNDER 184

I like Portland tonight to win this game because of their defense, and that's made me also want to play on the UNDER as well. Plus a great system supports us that says to play the under where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and a good team (winning 60% to 75% of their games) playing a team with a winning record, in December games. 47-14 (77%) over the last 5 seasons. Mathmetically speaking this game hits the big four. Both teams score less than their opponents normally allow, while holding opponents under their season average (Portland holding opponents 8 points under their norm!)

15* on 76ers/Mavs OVER 199

These are two below-average defensive teams here tonight. The 76ers allow 101.5 points/game overall and 102.6 points/game on the road, while the Mavs allow 99.7 points/game at home. Philly has been scoring and allowing more points on the road, putting up 99.4 points/game away from home. The Mavs are one of the better scoring teams in the league, especially at home where they put up 106.1 points/game and shoot 47% from the floor. I see no scenario in which this game doesn't see less than 200 combined points tonight. Philly has allowed 97 or more points in 6 straight games, while the Mavs have allowed 99 or more in 4 of their last 5. But Dallas has put up 99 or more in 6 of their last 7. The 76ers are 9-1 OVER in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Mavs are 15-5 OVER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER.

15* on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 195.5

This one is a no-brainer tonight folks. The Bulls have scored more than 98 points in only 1 of 14 games this season, while the Bucks have scored 99 or less points in 6 of their last 7 games. Defensively, both teams only allow a little over 97 points/game this season. The only play here is on the UNDER tonight. Chicago is 8-1 UNDER after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. The Bulls are 25-10 UNDER after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher since 1996. The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER.

15* on Boston/Miami UNDER 187.5

Both of these teams are solid defensively with Boston allowing teams to score seven points less per game than they average on the season and the Heat giving up four points less than their opponents season average. I think you are going to see a solid defensive performance today from both of these teams with a close, toughly fought game.

20* on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 188.5

Boston is allowing their opponents to score almost seven points less per game than their season average, while they themselves put up 1.5 ppg less than their opponents normally give up. The 76ers avg. a full point less than their opponents allow, despite giving up 4 points more. Boston is a veteran team who knows that they need to keep the pace slow tonight and not let the younger Sixer team turn this into a track meet. That means they will control the tempo, slow it down, and secure the win.

15* on Charlotte Bobcats -2

I'd take advantage of this soft line on the Bobcats tonight. The team is on a bad losing streak, but they have played some tough teams during that stretch. The Bobcats are 4-2 at home, with their only losses coming to Orlando and Portland, two teams who are a step up from the Raptors. Toronto is just 2-6 away from Canada this year. The rest edge also goes with Charlotte, as they have had a couple of nights off compared to Toronto playing their third time in four nights.

15* on Clippers/Pacers OVER 203

We know that the Pacers like to run as this team is both scoring and giving up more than 99.8 points per game on the season. The Clippers have struggled a bit offensively, but expected back is Eric Gordon, who was an offensive spark plug before hurting his groin. These two teams played to some extremely high totals last year, with both games sailing over the 200 point mark. I think this one is fast-paced and high scoring.

20* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Wizards OVER 198

The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Washington. This trend really stands out, especially with a total of less than 200 points tonight. That leaves the value here with the OVER. Looking back, I find that the last 6 meetings in Washington have all resulted in 202 or more combined points. The 76ers are 12-3 OVER in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 34-19 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 3 seasons. With the evidence presented, I see no way this thing stays under 200 combined points. Take the OVER.

15* on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192

In this huge Eastern Conference showdown, both the Celtics and Magic will step it up defensively. Both squads are already solid on this end of the floor, with the Magic allowing 94.7 points/game and the Celtics giving up 88.8 points/game. Neither team is really lighting it up offensively, and the Magic have been terrible on the road in scoring just 93.4 points/game. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings, with the highest point total being 189 points. Take the UNDER.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Grizzlies OVER 194

These teams should have no problem combining to score more than 200 points tonight. The 76ers are 17-7 OVER versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies have improved dramatically on offense this season, scoring 100.2 points/game and shooting nearly 47% from the floor. They average 105.2 points/game on the road, but also give up a ridiculous 117.3 points/game away from home. The 76ers are not a good defensive team, either, giving up 100.7 points/game this season. I foresee both squads putting up at least 100 in this one. The OVER is 7-1 in 76ers last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 6-1 in 76ers' last 7 games vs. the Western Conference. Take the OVER.

20* NBA Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 202

Both the Spurs and Jazz played last night, so each of these elder teams will come in on tired legs. That means poor shooting and less points, making this an ideal spot to side with the UNDER. It's also worth noting that Tony Parker is doubtful Thursday with an ankle injury. San Antonio will not be able to push the tempo without him, and they managed to score just 84 points in regulation last night against Dallas with Parker out of the lineup. This is going to be a half-court game with less than 200 combined points scored. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Take the UNDER.

15* on Nets/Bucks UNDER 188.5

The Nets have so many injuries that they just cannot get anything going offensively. It will be tough to get sledding again here tonight against a Milwaukee team that is allowing just 96 points/game this season. The Nets score 84.4 points/game on average, but defensively they have been solid, giving up 94.5 points/game overall. New Jersey has scored 83 or less points in 5 straight games, and they have failed to reach 100 points in 8 straight. But they have allowed 91 or less points in 5 straight games, so their 0-11 record is not because of a lack of effort on the defensive end. The UNDER is 9-2 in the Nets' 11 games this season, and they have gone UNDER the number in 6 straight. The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these teams, and the UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Milwaukee. Take the UNDER.

20* NBA Wednesday Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors/Celtics UNDER 210

Look for the Celtics to clamp down defensively tonight after losing back-to-back games. They gave up 97 points at Atlanta, and gave up 113 points in Indiana in their last two contests, respectively. I look for the Celtics to hold the Warriors to less than 90 tonight in what will be a defensive battle. Golden State just played in Cleveland last night, and they'll be playing on tired legs in Boston. The Celtics allow just 88.3 points/game this season despite their recent struggles. They've had 3 days' rest in between games to prepare for the Warriors, and to get back to focusing on the defensive end of the floor. That work will pay off tonight. The Warriors are 11-2 UNDER in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. This total has been inflated tonight so let's take advantage. Take the UNDER.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Kings UNDER 198

It's safe to say that the Bulls are a terrible offensive team and a great defensive squad this season now that they are 9 games into the season. The Bulls score 89.2 points/game and allow 92.3 points/game this year, and the UNDER is 7-2 in their 9 games. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the Bulls and Kings, where they have failed to combine to score more than 197 points in 5 of those 6 contests. Chicago is 19-6 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons. Sacramento is 18-6 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER.

15* on Pacers/Nets OVER 190

The OVER is 19-9 in the last 28 meetings between the Pacers and Nets in New Jersey. The OVER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall. This is typically a high-scoring series, and with a total at just 190 points all value is with the OVER. Indiana is 11-2 OVER in road games after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. New Jersey is 21-7 OVER after allowing 90 points or less 4 straight games since 1996. The Nets have been playing good defense of late, but now they run into a Pacers' team that has scored 101 or more points in 4 straight games. Take the OVER.

15* on Warriors/Cavs OVER 213

The numbers don't like, the Golden State Warriors can light it up offensively, but they cannot stop anyone on defense. Golden State is scoring 111.6 points/game while allowing 113.7 points/game this season. They allow 117.4 points/game on the road as well. The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The OVER is 13-4 in Warriors last 17 games following a S.U. loss. The OVER is 7-1-1 in Cavaliers last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the OVER.

20* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bobcats/Magic OVER 182

With Orlando scoring 106.6 points/game at home and giving up 96.6 points/game on their home floor this season, the Magic are 4-1 OVER in 5 home games. I see a great opportunity to capitalize on a very low total here tonight as Charlotte visits Orlando. The Magic will control the tempo at home tonight, and they like to get out and run to maximize their talents. Charlotte will be forced to try and keep up with them, because the Magic won't allow this game to get in a half-court battle. The Bobcats are 16-5 OVER after allowing 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Orlando is 25-9 OVER after allowing 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Both teams are coming off great defensive efforts, which has forced the odds makers to set this total much lower than it really should be. The value is with the OVER tonight and that's why I'll take the OVER.

20* NBA on ESPN TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Nuggets UNDER 211.5

The Lakers come in tired after running with the Phoenix Suns last night, and they are still without Pau Gasol which makes them a much less dangerous offensive team. This is a rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals, which means that the intensity on the defensive end will be amplified. Throw in that the Lakers are playing on tired legs so they'll be a bit "off the mark" offensively, and this makes for a great spot to play the UNDER. The UNDER is 12-5 in all meetings over the last 3 seasons, and the UNDER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Denver. The UNDER is 10-3 in Nuggets last 13 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the UNDER.

15* on 76ers/Jazz UNDER 196.5

Neither the Jazz nor the 76ers have been able to execute very well offensively this season. Both squads are averaging less than 100 points/game this year, with Utah putting up a mere 92.7 points/game on the road and Philly scoring 96.2 points/game at home. Philly is 22-10 UNDER as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the 76ers are 13-4 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 6-1 in 76ers last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the UNDER.

20* NBA on TNT Total Dominator on Cavs/Heat UNDER 180.5

Cleveland just played last night in Orlando, so they'll be playing on tired legs tonight in Miami. That doesn't bode well for Cleveland scoring a lot of points against an improved Miami defense. The Heat are allowing just 88.6 points/game this season. The Cavs remain one of the best defensive teams in the league again this year, allowing 90.2 points/game. Neither team is really lighting it up offensively, as both average less than 98/game. The Heat are 15-4 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Cavs are 30-14 UNDER in road games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1996. The UNDER is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 14-2 in Miami's last 16 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Miami. Take the UNDER.

15* on Nuggets/Bucks UNDER 197

Milwaukee is a solid defensive team this season that is having problems scoring the basketball. But they have made up for their lackluster offensive play with defensive effort, giving up just 85.2 points/game. They score 90.4 points/game, and this is the way that Scott Skiles envisioned his team playing. He coaches effort and defense, and finally the Bucks have the right personnel to make it work. Denver is limiting their opponents to just 98.5 points/game on the road this season through 6 road games, so they have stepped up their play on this end of the floor after being called "soft" defensively last season. Denver is 14-4 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER.

20* NBA Wednesday Total Annihilator on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 189

Boston is playing tremendous defense this season, not allowing second-chance points and forcing their opponents to work for every shot they get. They are allowing 84.4 points/game this season while scoring 98.5 points/game. When you do the math, the Celtics and their opponents are playing games on just under a 183-point average/game. We see Boston controlling the tempo at home in this one, making it a half-court game which plays into their hands. Rajon Rondo is a great defender, and he'll keep the Jazz' best player in Deron Williams in check all game long, not allowing Williams to get out and run the fast break. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Celtics last 17 vs. NBA Northwest division foes. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Celtics' last 5 games vs. the Western Conference. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings, including the 90-85 win by Utah last season which saw 175 combined points. Take the UNDER.

15* on Warriors/Pacers OVER 224

These are two teams that love to get out and run, but they are also two teams that don't put too much emphasis on the defensive end. This si especially true for Golden State, who gives up 113.2 points/game on the season and 121.5 points/game on the road. The Warriors are having no problem scoring though, putting up 110.7 points/game this season. Indiana has stepped up their offense lately, and the Pacers are 14-4 OVER in home games after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The last 3 meetings between these squads saw 237, 247 and 242 combined points, respectively. Take the OVER.

20* NBA Tuesday Total No-Brainer on Rockets/Mavs OVER 199

Hard not to like this OVER tonight between two teams that are averaging over 100 points/game this season. Houston is scoring 104.3 PPG while the Mavs are scoring 101.7 PPG, which improves to 105.3 PPG when playing at home. That's why this is a no-brainer to side with the OVER tonight. Also note that Dallas is 32-13 (71%) OVER in home games after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or less since 1996. 3 of the last 4 meetings in Dallas have gone OVER the total as well. Take the OVER.

15* on Nuggets/Bulls UNDER 205

The Bulls are playing a different brand of basketball this season, relying on their defense to win games. That's because they score just 88.5 points/game on the year. But the Bulls only give up 92.3 points/game overall and 85.3 points/game at home. Denver has been decent on the defensive end in road games, giving up 100.4 points/game away from home through 5 road contests. The UNDER is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. With a total above 200 points tonight, all value is with the under. Take the UNDER.

15* on Wizards/Heat UNDER 185

There's no questioning Miami's effort on the defensive end this season. Through 6 games, the Heat are allowing a solid 90.7 points/game. They are up against a Washington team that is averaging just 91.7 points/game on the road this year. In fact, the Wizards have scored 90 or less points in 4 straight games now. Clearly, they are missing Antawn Jamison who was their leading scorer last season. Miami has allowed less than 90 points in 4 of their last 5 games. I don't see both teams topping the 90-point mark, which favors a low-scoring game. Take the UNDER.

20* NBA Monday Total Dominator on T'Wolves/Warriors UNDER 215

This is a match-up of two of the worst teams in the league when 1-6 Minnesota travels to 1-4 Golden State. Minnesota's offense is the big reason why this one stays UNDER the number tonight as they average just 91.3 points/game while shooting 43.1% from the floor and 29.3% from 3-point range. Both teams come into this one tired after playing Sunday. The T'Wolves lost 93-116 at Portland while the Warriors lost 107-120 at Sacramento. Look for both squads to be sloppy offensively tonight when playing on back-to-back days on tired legs. Minnesota is 20-9 UNDER after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 8-0 in Timberwolves last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 7-0 in Timberwolves last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 8-0 in Warriors last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER.

15* on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

The Thunder are for real this season, opening the season 2-2 with their only losses against the Lakers and Blazers by single digits, two of the best teams in the West. This is a very generous line Friday and I'll look to take advantage on the underdog Thunder. They have put an emphasis on defense this year, and it's showing as OKC is allowing just 89.0 points/game. That even factors in their 98-101 overtime loss to the Lakers. The Thunder are 13-4 ATS in road games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Thunder are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Southwest division foes. OKC is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Houston. Take the Thunder.

20* NBA Friday Total Annihilator on Bucks/T'Wolves UNDER 189

Two horrendous offensive teams meet up tonight in Minnesota in what figures to be a low-scoring affair. The Bucks score just 87.7 points/game this season while the T'Wolves are scoring 94.8 points/game. Those numbers get even worse when you specify home/away numbers. Milwaukee puts up 83.5 points/game on the road and Minnesota scores 90.7 points/game at home. Both teams are playing solid defense this year, with the Bucks allowing 89.0 points/game and the T'Wolves giving up 96.3 points/game at home. In fact, Minnesota held Boston to just 92 points last time out. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bucks last 5 overall. The UNDER is 7-0 in Timberwolves last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 12-1 in Timberwolves last 13 games following a ATS win. Take the UNDER.

15* on Minnesota Timberwolves -2

Minnesota has played much better than their 1-4 record indicates. Despite being 1-4 SU, the Wolves are 4-1 ATS. They have 2 losses by 3 points or less, and 3 losses by 8 points or less. They lost by just 2 points against Boston last time out, blowing a big lead in that game. That loss proves they can play with the big boys, and Minnesota should make easy work of the Bucks tonight at home. Milwaukee is 1-2, scoring just 87.7 points/game overall and 83.5 points/game on the road. The Bucks are 5-18 ATS in road games against Northwest division opponents since 1996. The Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 2 days rest. The Timberwolves are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The Bucks are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Minnesota.

15* on Raptors/Hornets OVER 205

The Raptors are scoring at will this season, but their defense is suspect to say the least. Toronto averages 108.5 points/game while giving up 107.5 points/game. They have gone OVER the total in 3 out of 4 games. The Hornets are kind of in the same boat, scoring 101.0 points/game and giving up 105.2 points/game where they have gone OVER the total in 3 of 5 games. With the numbers presented, you can see why the value is with the OVER tonight between two high-scoring teams. The Raptors are 15-5 OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 17-6 OVER in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER.

15* on Washington Wizards +1.5

Washington gets back in the win column tonight against an overmatched Pacers' team. Indiana has opened the season just 1-3, and a big reason is the injuries where Mike Dunleavy, Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy have all missed action. All 3 will be watching from the sidelines tonight, as well. In their last 2 games, the Wizards blew a 14-point lead to the Cavs on the road and lost by just 4 points at home to Miami in a game they led late. Look for the Wizards to take out their anger on this helpless Pacers' team tonight. The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Take Washington.

15* on Cleveland Cavaliers -11

Since dropping their first 2 games, the Cavaliers have responded by winning 3 straight by 11 points or more. Chicago is 0-2 in road games this season, getting outscored by the Celtics and Heat by an average of 18.0 points/game. The Bulls won't be able to keep this game close at all as they are clearly overmatched by the Cavaliers. They have nobody on their roster that can even slow down Lebron James. The Cavs are 23-8 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. When Cleveland gets on a roll, they are tough to slow down as proven by this trend, and they are clearly on a roll right now. The Bulls are 16-34 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Cavs are 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Cleveland.

15* on Houston Rockets +2.5

The Rockets are much better than they were getting credit for at the beginning of the year. Houston is off to a 3-1 start, with big wins over the likes of the Jazz, Warriors and Blazers. That's an impressive start considering 3 of their 4 games have been on the road. The Rockets still have a sour taste in their mouths after losing to the Lakers in the Western Conference Semifinals last year. They catch L.A. in a great spot here with the Lakers coming off an overtime victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. Fatigue will be a factor for the Lakers, who are still playing without Pau Gasol. Houston will try to win this one for Trevor Ariza, who the Lakers simply let go in favor of Ron Artest. The home team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings. The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Rockets.

20* NBA Wednesday Total Annihilator on Celtics/Timberwolves UNDER 186

Boston is the best defensive team in the league this season, giving up just 79.8 points/game this year. This young, inexperienced Minnsota team likely won't be able to top that average tonight. The T'Wolves have averaged just 91.0 points/game at home this year. This game will likely result in a blowout, which should also result in reserves playing down the stretch and that favors the UNDER as well. The Celtics are 17-4 UNDER in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 12-3 UNDER in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 14-4 UNDER in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is not a team that gets a lot of free throw attempts because they shoot too many jump shots. That will also elimate easy points with the clock stopped. Boston is only shooting 19 free throws/game this season, so they aren't getting many easy points with the clock stopped, either. Take the UNDER.

15* on Wizards/Heat UNDER 193.5

The fatigue factor is in here as both Miami and Washington played last night. The Wizards lost 90-102 at Cleveland, while the Heat lost 96-104 at home vs. Phoenix. Look for both teams to amp up their defense after allowing their opponents to top the 100-point mark last night, and look for the fatigue to affect the shooting in this one as both teams shoot a low percentage on tired legs. The Heat are 46-27 UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Miami is 17-4 UNDER after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Heat are not getting easy buckets in transition because they aren't forcing many turnovers. They are only forcing 13 turnovers/game. Washington has been even worse in that department, forcing just 10 turnovers/game which has eliminated their easy points in transition as well. This is going to be a half-court game with both teams slowing it down tonight. Take the UNDER.

15* on Oklahoma City Thunder +8

The Thunder are clearly improved this season now that the likes of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green are all a year older. They have opened the season 2-1 with wins over the Kings and Pistons. OKC has what it takes to hang with the Lakers tonight at home, and that's why I'll side with the Thunder as a nice home dog Tuesday. Kobe Bryant is questionable tonight with the Flu, while Pau Gasol is doubtful with a hamstring injury. The Thunder have stayed healthy, which is key because this team can compete with anybody when everyone is on the floor. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. OKC is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take the Thunder.

20* NBA Total No-Brainer on Suns/Heat UNDER 217

The Miami Heat have put a new-found emphasis on defense this season, and that's the reason they have started 3-0. Miami is giving up just 87.7 points/game this season and allowing teams to shoot just 38.6% from the floor. Playing at home tonight, the Heat will control the tempo and slow this one down because they know they do not want to get in a track meet with the Suns. The UNDER is 7-1 in Suns last 8 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 8-0 in Heat last 8 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 4-1 in Miami's last 5 home games. Take the UNDER.

15* Boston Celtics -6.5

The Celtics are 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the 76ers. In fact, they have won 5 of those 8 games by 10 points or more. This has been a one-sided series, especially in Philly where the Celtics are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road meetings with the 76ers. Boston has won 3 straight games in blowout fashion by double-digits, and you can chalk up a 4th straight tonight as they improve to 5-0 this year. Take the Celtics.

20* NBA Monday No-Brainer on Grizzlies/Kings OVER 205

Two terrible defensive teams meet up Monday in the Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings. Memphis gives up 112.0 points/game this season, though they are scoring 104.0 points/game with solid offensive play. The Kings are allowing 104.0 points/game and opposing teams are shooting 51.9% from the floor through three games. The Grizzlies and Kings have combined to score more than 203 points in each of their last 3 meetings. The OVER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last 9 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento. Take the OVER.

15* on Memphis +11

No Analysis.

15* on Mavs/Clippers OVER 193

This Total has dropped 6 points since it came out. All value is with the OVER as the Mavs and Clippers combine to score more than 193 points tonight. The OVER is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 road games. The OVER is 20-6 in Mavericks last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER 19-6-2 in Clippers last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 18-7-2 in Clippers last 27 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the OVER.

15* on Golden State Warriors +5.5

The Warriors have a style that matches up very well with the Suns, and they have what it takes to keep this thing close and likely pull off the upset tonight. It also helps that Phoenix is missing a few key players in SG Jason Richardson and C Robin Lopez. 5 of the last 7 in this series have been decided by single-digits. The last 4 meetings in Phoenix, the Warriors have stayed within single-digits as well. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Warriors are 21-9-2 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss. Take Golden State.

15* on Toronto Raptors -2

It's already clear that Memphis is going to be one of the worst teams in the league again this year. It's also clear that the Raptors are going to be one of the most improved teams after beating Cleveland in their opener, 101-91. I watched that entire game, and the Raptors have playmakers and scorers all over the floor. I also watched most of the Memphis game, and this team shoots way too many jump shots and has a very hard time finding easy buckets in transition. The Grizzlies lost 74-96 in their home opener to Detroit. They do not match up with the Raptors well at all here. Toronto has won 4 of their last 5 meetings with Memphis. The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. The Grizzlies are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Toronto.

20* NBA Friday No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -1

This is a very generous line for the home team in what will be a blowout win for Charlotte. The Bobcats had a tough opener in a bad loss at Boston, but they'll rebound at home here tonight against a Knicks' team that lost 93-115 in their opener to Miami. Charlotte is 50-28 ATS after scoring 85 points or less since 1996. They will have much more success offensively tonight against New York, who owns one of the league's worst defenses again this year. They allowed Miami to shoot 56.6% from the field while they shot just 37.9% from the floor themselves. Charlotte is a good defensive team, and they limited Boston to just 43.4% shooting despite the loss. The Knicks are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Bobcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games overall. Take Charlotte.

15* on Nuggets/Blazers UNDER 200

With the Nuggets playing on back-to-back nights, I really like this one to finish UNDER the total. Portland is a very good defensive team, and they'll control the tempo playing at home. The Blazers like to play a half-court game, while the Nuggets like to get out and run. With Denver playing back-to-back nights, I can't see them trying to run too much tonight. In their first game of the season Tuesday, the Blazers held the Rockets to just 87 points and 37% shooting. Portland is 27-13 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 21-9 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 19-7 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings where these teams have failed to combine to score more than 196 points in all 4 meetings. The UNDER would be 6-0 in the last 6 meeetings had they not played an overtime game on 2/4/08. Take the UNDER.

20* NBA Eastern Conference No-Brainer on Knicks/Heat UNDER 207

The books have set this total off the mark Wednesday, basing this line off of how the Knicks played last season. But New York is a much better defensive team than they get credit for this season, with starters like Larry Hughes, Chris Duhon and David Lee who are known for their ability to play defense. The Heat are not an explosive offensive team, but they have players who play on the defensive end such as Udonis Haslem, DWyane Wade and Jermaine O'Neal. I look for this one to finish well UNDER the number tonight as both teams come out a bit rusty offensively. The Knicks improved dramatically on defense at the end of last season, going 7-1 UNDER in their final 8 games. The Heat followed suit, going 4-1 UNDER in their last 5 games. The UNDER is 11-1 in New York's last 12 games against Eastern Conference foes. The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Miami. Take the UNDER.

15* on Pistons/Grizzlies OVER 191

Both the Pistons and Grizzlies have improved dramatically on the offensive end in the offseason. The Pistons lost some defense by getting rid of Antonio McDeyess and Rasheed Wallace, but they gained some offense by signing Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. The Grizzlies also added some offense with Allen Iverson and Zach Randolph, two players who live to score points. The OVER is 7-2 in Pistons last 9 games as a favorite. The OVER is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 games as a home underdog. These are two teams that have made the transition to put more focus on the offensive end, and less focus on defense. Take the OVER.

15* on Charlotte Bobcats +10

Charlotte has had Boston's number against the spread recently, always playing the Celtics tough. With a double-digit spread tonight, all value is with Charlotte. Also look for Boston to have a hard time getting up for this game after winning in Cleveland last night. The Bobcats are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Boston. Take Charlotte.

15* on Portland Trail Blazers -9

This is a play against Houston as the Rockets will be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference this season. They are starting the year with both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady injured, and they traded away Ron Artest on the offseason to the Lakers. Those were clearly their 3 best players from a year ago. Now they don't have the players on offense who can score a lot of points. The home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings in this series, also giving the Blazers the edge. The Blazers finished last season going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games, and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. Take Portland.

20* NBA 2009 Opening Night Total on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 185

Two of the best defensive teams from a year ago square off tonight. The Celtics gave up just 94.0 points/game on the road while the Cavs allowed a stellar 88.2 points/game at home. Both squads have gotten older in the offseason as the Celtics added Rasheed Wallace and the Cavs added Shaq. Both will be relying on their defenses to win games as both like to slow it down and play a half-court style. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Cleveland. Boston has failed to score more than 83 points in any of those 4 meetings. Take the UNDER.

15* Lakers/Magic UNDER 201

Good thing the last game in this series went over, so that way we can get a couple of extra points on the total and hop back on the UNDER train. Both of these teams shot unbelievable from the floor in Game 3, which is the only reason the game went over the total. That isn't going to happen against tonight as the Lakers will clamp down on their defense in order to pick up the win. Both of these teams have solid defenses, so points are at a premium tonight.

20* NBA Finals No-Brainer on LA Lakers +2.5

Orlando is coming off a game in which they shot 62.5% from the floor and they still managed to win by only four points. The Lakers still could have won the game if Kobe would have made his free throws. You had to expect LA to let off the gas a little bit after blowing Orlando out in Game 1 and then winning an emotional win in Game 2. This Laker team has a history of letdowns in these playoffs, but after a loss they have come back strong. No reason to think they won't do the same tonight and win in Orlando.

20* NBA Finals BEST BET on Orlando Magic +7

You often see good teams bounce back after a game one loss so I'll take the points tonight. The Lakers came out determined to win game one after having lost both regular season meetings with the Magic, but you have seen LA suffer letdown after letdown this postseason after a big win, so why expect anything different tonight? You can't expect the Magic to shoot under 30% again, which was one of the reasons the score got so lopsided. The Magic are 15-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and I think they cash another ticket for us tonight.

15* on Magic/Lakers UNDER 206

Both of these teams have had some time off before this game, so I expect there to be some offensive rust. Also with that time off both teams and coaching staffs had plenty of time to game plan, so scoring should be at a premium tonight. I'll go with the UNDER.

15* Lakers +5.5

I like the points here tonight since the Lakers seemed to turn the hump in Game 5, getting everyone involved in the offense for the balance that they need to take care of the Nuggets. I don't think Kobe and company really want to see this game head back to LA too badly so you'll see an all-out effort tonight. It's hard to believe the Lakers are catching so many points here since they are outscoring opponents by 4 points per game on the road this year and the Nuggets only outscored opponents by 8 at home. It seems to me like this line is a little inflated and should be around 3, showing us value in the high number.

15* Orlando Magic +2

I'm kind of baffled as to why the Magic are underdogs on their home floor after pretty much working the Cavs over so far in this series. The Magic have gone 12-1 ATS against Cleveland the last three years and should be up 3-0 here if James hadn't hit that last second shot in Game 2. So far Cleveland hasn't been able to find an answer for Dwight Howard down low, nor do they have anyone who can contain Terk or Lewis on the wing. Orlando causes matchup problems for Cleveland and the playoffs are all about matchups. LeBron is going to get his, but he needs help and there just isn't anyone else stepping up. Mo Williams took an elbow to the eye last game, so don't count on him stepping up. I'll go with Orlando to keep up their solid play again tonight.

20* Total Annihilator NBA Lakers/Nuggets OVER 208.5

Take the Over in tonight's Western Conference Finals game between the Lakers and Nuggets. The Lakers come into the game scoring just under 105 points per game on the road this season, while the Nuggets are averaging over 108 points per game at home this year. Neither team plays great defense, the Lakers giving up 100 points per game on the road, while the Nuggets give up 100 points per game at home, making this game look like another shootout. The last three games in the series have gone under the total, but not only were those all higher numbers to reach, in each game one team or the other shot uncharacteristically poorly from the free-throw line or from the floor, those points being the difference between the over and the under. Tonight look for and outpouring from both teams as they adjust to each others defensive schemes.

15* on Cavs/Magic UNDER 189.5

The UNDER is our play on Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday. The first game of the series was a 107-106 offensive explosion, while game 2 settled down to more of a defensive effort, ending just over the total with Lebron James's last-second 3-point make. Expect scoring to be at even more of a premium in Orlando, as the Cavs score less on the road, and both teams tend to clamp down more on defense in this particular situation. The majority of recent meetings have stayed under the total, and 22 of Orlando's last 32 games overall have been unders. Expect a correction tonight after two overs in the first two games of this series.

15* on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 211.5

Take the over in tonight's NBA Western Conference Championship game between the LA Lakers and the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets will keep the tempo going fast at home, just has they have all season, and the Lakers have the offensive firepower to run with them all night. The Nuggets score an average of 108 points per game at home, while the Lakers score about 104 points per game on the road this year. Both teams have surrendered around 100 points per game on defense. Both teams should easily go over the century mark and send this game well over the number.

15* on Orlando Magic/Cleveland Cavs UNDER 188.5

Expect more of a defensive game tonight between the Cavs and the Magic. Game 1 went soaring over the 184 point total with 213 points scored. That final has the total set a little higher for Game 2. Both of these teams are very strong on defense, and both teams have played the majority of their games this season coming in under the total. Expect a slower pace and a much lower final score in Game 2.

15* on Orlando Magic +9.5

The Magic proved how dangerous they can be against the Cavs in Game 1, beating Cleveland on their home court. I'm not ready to hand the series to the Magic just yet, but I do think these games will be much closer than the odds makers think. These are very evenly matched teams up and down the line. The Cavs obviously have an advantage at home, but as long as the Magic keep all of the Cavs not named Lebron under wraps, they can make this another close game.

15* Nuggets +5.5

Denver should have won Game 1 and I'm expecting them to bounce back strong tonight just like they have in their other two playoff losses. The first was against New Orleans by 2 points which was followed by a 58 point rout, the second was a 2 point loss to the Mavs who they then beat by 14. Denver played physical defense in the first game and caused plenty of problems for the Lakers bigs. I don't see that changing tonight as the Nuggets continue to score easily down low and make things difficult for the Lakers.

15* Nuggets/Lakers OVER 211

I'm backing a system that has gone 46-14 (76.7%) since 1996 that says to play the over if the total is 210 or greater and the road team is coming off a close loss by 3 points or less against an opponent who scored 105 points or more. The Lakers are 32-13 OVER off a close home win by 3 points or less since 1996 and 14-4 OVER coming off two straight wins at home this year. Denver is averaging 111 ppg in the playoffs while the Lakers are putting up 108 ppg at home on the season.

20* NBA No-Brainer on Orlando Magic +9

Cleveland dominated both the Pistons and the Hawks but the Magic are a much better team than those two. With the Cavs having not played since last Monday I think you will see the team a little rusty tonight. I also like how the three meetings went this year, with Orlando dominating at home and the Cavs squeaking out a close one at home. Orlando led going into the final frame in all three games and they severely outscored the Cavs down low.

15* Lakers/Nuggets UNDER 215

The Lakers went UNDER in their last four games against the Rockets and I see that trend keeping pace tonight. The Lakers defense has picked it up recently, allowing just 87.2 ppg over their last five games and 97.2 ppg in all home games this year. Denver scores a lot more points at home than on the road, as evidenced by their 101.6 ppg mark as a visitor. The Nuggets are 27-10 UNDER the last three seasons against teams who outscore their opponents by 6+ ppg and you want to play the UNDER when a team led their previous game by 20 or more at the half against an opponent who put up 60 or more in the first half of their previous game. That system is 55-20 (77.3%) the last 13 years.

15* on LA Lakers -6.5

There is some line value here with the Lakers tonight after the Nuggets ran through the first two rounds and went 10-0 at the pay window. This Lakers team dominated Denver during the regular season winning by 14 points in each of the first two home games despite shooting poorly from behind the arc. It should be no surprise since Kobe doesn't have anyone who can defend him like Battier did in the last series and the Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against Denver and 18-6 ATS in their last 24. The Lakers got their wake-up call against Houston after they played half-ass in a couple of games. You'll see an all-out effort tonight in what should be a statement game that they are ready to contend.

20* NBA No-Brainer on Orlando/Boston OVER 186

The line on this total has been over-adjusted after the low scoring game on Thursday, plus the fact that Game 7s tend to be a little lower scoring. These two teams have shot terrible from behind the arc in the last three games, and you can't expect that to continue with the way the teams shot during the regular season. Boston has put up 104.5 ppg at home this season and 103.7 ppg in the playoffs. The Magic average 100 ppg on the road and allow nearly 97. The total in this series has floated around 190 each game and that's where it should be here. Expect a close game and a lot of points.

15* on LA Lakers -12.5

I know LA has been flat in two games down in Houston this series, but I like their chances to win in another blowout this afternoon. The Lakers were 41-6 at home this season while the Rockets were just 22-25 on the road. You also have to like how the Lakers have bounced back from each of their postseason losses this year, going 3-0 both SU and ATS with a 40 point win in Game 5, a 13 point win in Game 2, and a 14-point win last series against the Jazz in Game 4. The Rockets on the other hand are 2-10 after a straight up win as an underdog this season, which shows they tend to have let downs after big games. You want to play on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite when they are on two days rest. That system is 54-15 over the last 5 seasons (78.3%).

15* on Orlando Magic -6.5

The Magic know that they let one get away in Game 5 and should respond with an all-out effort tonight back on their home floor. I was on Orlando there and was disappointed in the last, since they outplayed Boston for nearly the entire game. I feel like the Magic have outplayed the Celtics for nearly the entire series. Boston has played several game 7s over the past two years, so how hungry are they going to be to close out the series tonight? I don't think they are worried too much about getting to go back to their home floor. Orlando on the other hand had a great year and their season is on the brink so a fast start and max effort to the end will be what I expect.

15* Orlando Magic +3

I think after watching the first four games there is no doubt in my mind that the Orlando Magic are the better team. Without Kevin Garnett the Celtics just don't have the interior defense to keep up with Dwight Howard. In Game 1 the Magic came out and dominated but then looked flat in Game 2 thinking they had done what they came to do, steal one in Boston. Game 3 was an Orlando rout before Boston bounced back and won on a buzzer beater in Game 4. The Magic have gone 29-17 ATS and 30-16 SU on the road this year so I'll take the points to the bank tonight.

20* No-Brainer on Boston Celtics +5

I like the Celtics to bounce back here in Game 4. They are 36-13 ATS the last there years on the road when revenging a loss. They got blown out in Game 1 by the Magic and then responded with a blowout of their own. This team couldn't have played worse defensively in Game 3 which won't happen again tonight. If you adjust the Magic's 59.1% shooting down to around 44% then this game would have been within a couple of baskets. Don't let that anomaly fool you into taking the Magic tonight as Boston is a veteran team who will come out strong tonight.

15* on Atlanta Hawks +9.5

The Hawks are a much better team on their home floor and they should be able to keep this one in single digits. Atlanta has covered 14 of their last 21 home games and covered both home games against the Cavs this year. The general public is all over the Cavs and that's why this game is so over-inflated. The home team has gone 14-2 both SU and ATS in Atlanta's playoff games the last two years. I'll take the points.

15* on Denver Nuggets +3.5

Dallas just hasn't had any sort of answer for Denver so far in this series and that isn't going to change with the location. So far the Nuggets are outscoring the Mavericks 54-13 in fastbreak points and are 6-1 this postseason with an average margin of victory of 25 points. Josh Howard is hurt and can't really play to his full potential and Dirk Nowitzki has to deal with a woman being arrested at his house the other night. This team doesn't need any distractions, since they are already over-matched. The Nuggets won 103-101 in Dallas back at the end of March and then 98-88 back in December. Basically take the generous amount of points here as this series won't last much longer.

20* NBA No-Brainer on the Lakers -1.5

The Lakers are going to be on a mission to take back the series here Friday night. The two games in LA were physical and that resulted in a few technical fouls and Fisher being suspended for Game 3. LA has plenty of point guard depth with Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar, so I'm not worried about Fisher sitting this one out. However, expect this game to be called tight, which favors the Lakers and their up-tempo style. Kobe took this team on his shoulders in Game 2, and he'll do the same tonight. Both Phil and Kobe know how important it is to get on top of the series and not dig themselves a hole at 1-2. LA is the best road team in the NBA and even though Houston does a great job of winning at home, the Lakers will show why they are the favorites to win the West with a convincing win tonight.

15* Atlanta Hawks +13.5

There was a lot of action on Cleveland in game one and there will be a lot of money flowing in on the Cavs again tonight, which has forced the books to over-inflate this line. The Hawks were in a bad spot Tuesday as they had come off an emotional game 7 win against the Heat, while the Cavs swept the Pistons and got plenty of rest before the start of the second round. LeBron James got his MVP trophy awarded to him that night, and he was anxious to show a very pumped up crowd there wasn't going to be a let down in the playoffs. Six of the last eight games and three of the last four between these two teams have been decided by single digits so take the generous amount of points tonight.