6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Indians -145
The Key: Cleveland is supported by a very lucrative system here. Teams in the first 12 games of the season that closed last season with 20 wins or more in their last 30 games are 65-25 the last 5 seasons. If the team we are playing is a favorite of -110 or more, had a winning record last season and is playing a club that had a losing season, this system tightens up to 37-7. The Tribe has been terrific at home with Kluber on the mound. It is 8-1 in his last 9 home starts, including 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite. The Padres are 2-8 in Ross' last 10 starts and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog. Take the Tribe.

7* National Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Kentucky -2.5
The Key: Coach Calipari's kids have won back-to-back nailbiters, but don't expect them to crack. Consider that his teams are 9-0 ATS after two straight wins of 6 points or less since 1997 and have won these games by an average score of 74.5 to 64.8. Also consider that his Kentucky teams are 18-2 in the Big Dance, including 11-0 in their last 11. He's often had the most talent on the floor since coming to Kentucky, and he's often been able to push the right buttons in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats are 7-0-1 ATS in post regular-season tournament games this season and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament contests. Like Kentucky, UConn has won its last five. However, the Huskies are 0-6 ATS following 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. I like Calipari's big-game coaching experience, and I like Kentucky's size here. I expect the Wildcats to dominate the glass and live at the foul line. Kentucky gets to the line 29 times per game, and teams that have been that successful drawing fouls have given UConn big problems. The Huskies are on a 3-12 ATS slide versus teams that attempt 28 free throws per game or more. Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Royals +106
The Key: The Royals are showing some nice value at this price given their success against Tampa Bay and Vargas' success against Tampa Bay. The Royals are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1 in the last 7. They are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home in the series, winning these by an average of 5.3 runs. The Rays are 0-2 in Moore's starts against Kansas City, and he has an ERA of 6.40 in these games. Vergas has an ERA of 3.47 in 8 starts against the Rays. He's given up no earned runs in two of his last three starts against them and has held them to 3 earned runs or less in five of the eight starts. He's won two of his last three starts against them and three of his last five. This is also a bad scheduling spot for Tampa Bay, who takes the road for the first time this season and without a day of rest. This is Kansas City's fourth straight game at home, and it will be ready. Take the Royals.

6* ESPN2 Sunday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -147
The Key: The Dodgers have lost the first two games of this series, but I look for them to bounce back strong behind a gem from Greinke. Greinke's clubs are 24-6 in his home starts since the start of the 2012 season. The Dodgers are 11-1 in Greinke's starts when he gets the ball following a team loss. The Dodgers are 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, 12-1 in his last 13 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, 5-0 in his last 5 starts in the third game of a series and 10-1 in his last 11 divisional starts. Greinke's teams are 38-13 all-time in his home starts as a favorite of -125 to -175. The Giants are 3-13 in Cain's last 16 starts, including 0-6 in his last 6. The Giants are 0-6 in Cain's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the National League West and 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record. Lastly, the Giants are 1-6 in Cain's last 7 starts versus Dodgers, including 0-3 in his last 3 overall and 0-3 in his last 3 in LA. Greinke's teams are 2-0 in his starts against the Giants. Take the Dodgers.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Grizzlies +7.5
The Key: The knee-jerk reaction might be to back the Spurs as they look to bounce back following their first loss since Feb. 21, especially since they are up against a team they have had a great deal of success against. I'm resisting that reaction as the Spurs are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, which tells me they aren't overly motivated by losses and odds makers inflate their lines following defeats. The Grizzlies are an impressive 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. They've lost 9 straight in San Antonio, but the last two defeats there came by only 4 and 7 points, respectively. Memphis can't afford to let up as it is in a tight race with Dallas and Phoenix for the final two playoff spots in the West. Plus, it will be extremely motivated here as it goes up against a team that it was swept by in last year's playoffs and has won each of this season's three meetings. You want to back road teams that have failed to cover the spread in 6 straight games or more if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 23-5 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

7* Final Four Game of the Year on Wisconsin +2
The Key: Kentucky has had a great run, but I believe it comes to an end here. Wisconsin has two significant edges where its matters most this time of year. They have a sizable edge in terms of experience, and they hold the advantage at the point-guard position with Traevon Jackson. Wisconsin reminds me of the San Antonio Spurs a little bit. This experienced group of upperclassmen really knows how to play together. Kentucky is the more talented team individually, but the sum of its parts doesn't match what Wisconsin brings to the table. The Badgers won't beat themselves the way I have seen Kentucky do at times this season. And, this Wisconsin team is quicker and more athletic that it often gets credit for. One thing you haven't wanted to do lately is go against Bo Ryan's boys when they are a #4 seed or better in the Big Dance. That's because they are 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in the NCAA Tournament when seeded 4th or better, and they have won these games by an average score of 69.9 to 56.7. The Badgers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and 7-1 ATS in all neutral court lined games this season. Take Wisconsin.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Rockies -128
The Key: The Rockies are showing tremendous value at this price at home with De La Rosa on the hill. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter, which comes as no surprise because they haven't been able to figure out De La Rosa. He has a 2.53 ERA in 16 starts against them, and the Rockies are 9-0 all-time in his home starts against them. He hasn't given up more than 2 earned runs in any of these 9 starts. Backing De La Rosa at home has paid off big time as the Rockies are 44-15 in his last 59 home starts. The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in McCarthy's last 7 starts as an underdog. Take Colorado.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers -3
The Key: I love the Cavs in this highly motivated spot. Not only did they lay an egg in Atlanta last night, but they have lost each of the season's first three meetings with the Bobcats. Plus, they are hanging on to playoff hopes by a thread and must get this one to have a chance. You want to take all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are seeking revenge for 3 straight losses to an opponent if that opponent is off back-to-back covers as a favorite. Doing so has produced a 77-40 ATS mark since 1996. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Bobcats are a terrible 17-42 ATS in their last 59 games when playing without a day of rest. Take Cleveland.

6* Final Four *CA$H COW* on Florida -6
The Key: UConn has gotten on a roll since losing to Louisville in the AAC tournament championship. It is 4-0 SU and ATS in the NCAA Tournament, but now's the time to go against the Huskies as they are 0-7 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins under coach Kevin Ollie. Florida lost by a point at UConn in early December despite shooting 49.0 percent from the floor and outrebounding the Huskies by eight. The three-point line proved to be their downfall as they were -24 from beyond the arc. UConn shot 11 of 24 from three in that contest, and I don't see it duplicating it. Florida is too good defensively to get beat from deep again. The Gators are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 NCAA Tournament games, and I expect them to extend this streak while having their revenge against UConn.

6* NBA Bailout on Lakers +8
The Key: This is a letdown spot for the Mavs following last night's big win over the Clippers. They've posted a pair of lopsided victories over the Lakers this season so they won't be nearly as focused as they were last night even though they are in a tight playoff race. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. They've won 3 of their last 4 at home and have recent home wins over the Thunder, Knicks and Suns. They are 20-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Take the points as LA keeps this one within the number.

7* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Rockets -2.5
The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats and further fueled by losses in each of the season's first three meetings with Oklahoma City, Houston will get back in the win column tonight. This is a letdown spot for the Thunder following last night's big win over the Spurs. Now, they hit the road where they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 with losses to the Suns, Lakers and Mavs during this stretch. The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games with wins over Miami, Indiana and Portland during this stretch. The Rockets are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. It looks like Dwight Howard will miss another game, but the Thunder are expected to be without Russell Westbrook and Kendrick Perkins. Regardless of who suits up, I believe Houston will play with more desperation because it needs this game more. Lay the points.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Royals -148
The Key: Kansas City has the edge on the mound with Guthrie. The Royals are 18-5 in his last 23 home starts and 7-2 in his last 9 starts versus the White Sox. He gave up 2 earned runs or fewer in each of the seven wins. The Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 21-5 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Chicago's Erik Johnson isn't nearly as proven. Plus, his team is just 15-43 in its last 58 road games and 2-10 in its last 12 road games versus a right-handed starter. Take KC.

6* NBA Bailout on Mavericks +4.5
The Key: I'll grab the points with a Dallas team that has performed well on the road and in bounce-back spots and is in must-win mode as it tries to make the postseason. The Mavericks are 43-18 ATS in their last 61 road games, including 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Mavericks are also 38-13 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. The Clippers are playing their second game in as many days and used a lot of energy to come back from 17 down against the Suns last night. They are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games against Dallas. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER on Thunder -3.5
The Key: San Antonio's winning streak comes to an end tonight. The Spurs are playing their second game in as many nights, their third in four days and fifth in seven days. Oklahoma City will be the fresher side as it has had the last three days off. The Spurs have struggled with Oklahoma City, losing the last four meetings by an average of 9.3 points. They are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games at OKC, losing them by 11.0 points on average. They are 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. Thunder are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine home games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. The most important thing to the Spurs right now is to enter the postseason rested and healthy. I don't see Popovich giving big minutes to his key guys in the second game of a back-to-back just to get a win. San Antonio is confident in its abilities and should secure the best record in the league regardless of what happens here. This game means more to a Thunder team that wants to make a statement that it's still the team to beat. Lay the points.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Rays -149
The Key: After winning the series opener 9-2, the Rays have dropped the last two while scoring just two total runs. That should change here with Toronto sending Morrow to the mound. The right-hander has really struggled against the Rays, giving up at least 5 earned runs in four of his last six starts against them. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in Morrow's last 5 starts as a road underdog and 0-4 in his last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Archer gives Tampa Bay the edge on the mound with a 1.65 ERA in three starts against the Blue Jays. The Rays are 5-0 in his last 5 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Blue Jays are 16-44 in their last 60 meetings in Tampa Bay. Take the Rays.

6* NIT *CA$H COW* on SMU -3
The Key: Look for SMU to bring home the NIT Championship. The Mustangs have a significant edge in the coaching box with Larry Brown. Plus, SMU has been the better team on foreign courts this season. The Golden Gophers are 6-10 in road/neutral court games this season while the Mustangs are 9-8. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS this season in games played away from home versus teams like SMU that outscore opponents by 8.0 ppg or more. The Gophers have lost to these teams by an average score of 79.3 to 64.6. SMU is 6-0 ATS in games played away from home after a win of 6 points or fewer the last three seasons. Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Angels -134
The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, I expect the Angels to dig down deep and gut out a win tonight. Seattle hasn't started 3-0 since 1995, and it is on a 9-20 slide after two or more consecutive wins. The Mariners are also on a 10-24 skid after allowing three runs or less in two straight games. The Angels, on the other hand, are 99-61 under Scioscia in home games after allowing eight runs or more. You want to fade American League teams with a starting pitcher who had a WHIP of 1.300 or better last season after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. Doing so has produced a 23-7 mark the last three seasons. Seattle is on a 4-17 skid after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs. Lastly, the Mariners are 22-50 in their last 72 road games in the series. Take the Halos.

6* NBA Bailout on Suns -2.5
The Key: Off an ugly loss to the Lakers, out for revenge for two straight losses to the Clippers and playing to hang on to a playoff spot, the Suns will be extremely hungry when they take the floor tonight. The Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss. They are also 17-8 ATS this season when playing with double revenge. Take Phoenix.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Knicks -2
The Key: The Knicks will be the more motivated team tonight as they are on the outside of the playoff picture, and they were crushed 103-80 on this floor the last time they met the Nets. New York is an awesome 27-9 ATS since 1996 when seeking revenge for a home loss of 20 points or more. The Nets won at home against Houston last night but are 5-11 this season in the second game of a back-to-back. The Knicks are playing a third game in four days but will benefit from playing at home. They are 19-7 ATS under coach Woodson in home games when playing a third game in four days. Take New York.

6* CBI *CA$H COW* on Fresno State +1
The Key: Look for Fresno State to extend the series with a win tonight. There is a time-tested system in play that shows the odds are in Fresno State's favor. Road teams seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent that are playing with one day of rest or none are 401-278 ATS the last five seasons. In addition, Fresno State has performed very well in tonight's situation. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS under coach Rodney Terry when seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. They are also 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.0 points or less or pickem under Terry. The Bulldogs are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss and 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games. Take Fresno State.

6* NIT Annihilator on Florida State -1.5
The Key: These teams met clear back in December with Minnesota winning 71-61, but that game was played in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers haven't been nearly the same team away from home where they are 5-10 on the season and 2-8 in their last 10. Florida State is a respectable 10-8 this season in games played away from home, including 4-1 in their last five. The Seminoles are 33-19 ATS under coach Hamilton when seeking revenge for a same-season loss. They are 10-2 ATS under Hamilton in neutral court games when the total is 135.0 to 139.5. They are also 56-35 ATS under Hamilton in all games when the line is +3 to -3. The Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. Lay the number.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Rockets/Nets Under 210
The Key: You want to play the UNDER on any team (Houston) after two or more consecutive OVERS if they are matched up against a team off five or more consecutive OVERS. Doing so has produced a 59-27 record the last five seasons. You also want to take the UNDER on home teams when the total is 200 or higher if they've gone OVER the total by 36 points or more in their last five games and if they have a win percentage between 51-60%. Doing so has produced a 76-36 record the last five seasons. Houston is 8-1 UNDER this season after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games. Brooklyn is 10-1 UNDER in home games since 1996 after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. Take the UNDER.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Dodgers -142
The Key: Zack Greinke has dominated the NL West since becoming a member of the Dodgers. In fact, the Dodgers are 9-1 in his last 10 starts versus the division. He's done plenty of damage against the Padres throughout his career. He's 3-0 (5-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.74 in five career starts versus San Diego. Three of these starts came in San Diego so he's clearly very comfortable pitching there. Ian Kennedy has struggled against the Dodgers. His clubs are 0-3 in his last three starts against them, and he's been tagged for 14 runs in 17 2/3 innings in these starts. The Dodgers do not like Kennedy, a feeling that stems from an incident last season when he drilled Yasiel Puig in the face and later Greinke in the back. Off a loss in the first game of the series and facing a starter they detest, the Dodgers will bring a great deal of focus and fire to the ballpark today.

6* MLB Opening Day Annihilator on A's -134
The Key: I don't trust Cleveland's Masterson here. The right-hander has an ERA of 8.10 in eight career starts against the A's and is 0-5 in five career starters in Oakland. The Indians are also 1-7 in Masterson's last eight starts as a road underdog. The Athletics have been a tremendous favorite at 90-44 in their last 134 games in the role. They are 63-28 in their last 91 games as a home favorite. They are also 5-1 in Gray's last six starts. Take Oakland.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Indiana Pacers +4.5
The Key: San Antonio is the hottest team in the NBA. It lost to the Pacers at home by 11 points earlier this season, but getting revenge won't be easy. You want to fade teams that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent when they are off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Doing so has produced a 42-16 ATS mark since 1996. You also want to go against teams seeking revenge for a loss where they allowed 110 points or more if the team they are up against is off an upset loss to a division opponent. Doing so has produced a 42-11 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Spurs are having another spectacular season but are just 1-9 ATS against teams with a win percentage above .700 this season. The Pacers are 14-4 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

6* MLB Opening Night Annihilator on Padres +100
The Key: The value lies with the Padres at this price with Cashner on the bump. He's 0-1 with a 0.82 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in three starts against the Dodgers. He struck out 16 in those starts and did not allow a home run in 22 innings. The Padres are 7-1 in their last eight series openers and 10-4 in their last 14 home games. Look for Cashner to outduel Ryu at home tonight.

6* Elite 8 *CA$H COW* on Michigan State -5.5
The Key: UConn has been fortunate enough to draw teams it matched up well against thus far, but that's not the case today. Gary Harris and Keith Appling are quick enough and talented enough to stick with Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier, and Branden Dawson and Adreian Payne will be the difference makers. I don't see UConn being able to contain this talented duo. Dawson will use his athleticism to pound the boards, and Payne will use his size and ability to step away from the basket to create match-up problems. These two also give the Spartans an edge defensively because they have the athletic ability to switch on screens. Since Tom Izzo took over in 1995, every player he's recruited who stayed four years has reached a Final Four. Today, Appling and Payne are playing to keep the streak alive, and I expect huge efforts from both. The Spartans are 9-1 ATS this season in games played away from home versus good teams with win percentages of .600 to .800. They have won these games by an average score of 77.1 to 67.9. Lay the points.

7* Elite 8 Game of the Year on Arizona -2.5
The Key: Wisconsin dominated Baylor, largely because it was the superior defensive team. However, that's not the case here. Arizona ranks fourth in the country in field goal percentage defense (38% shooting allowed) and fifth in scoring defense (58.4 ppg allowed). Wisconsin, on the other hand, ranks 129th in field goal percentage defense (42.8% shooting allowed) and 39th in scoring defense (63.8 ppg allowed). This is the time of year when defense really matters, and I won't hesitate to get behind the better defensive team here. In addition, teams headed up by coach Sean Miller are 15-4 ATS all-time in the NCAA tournament with an average winning margin of 5.6 points in these games. The Wildcats are 14-4 ATS in games played away from home against teams with a winning percentage above .800 under Miller and have won these games by an average of 7.8 points. It is also worth noting that the Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus the Big Ten. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Rockets -2
The Key: This is bad spot for the Clippers, who are playing their third road game in four days. Fatigue will be an issue for them. Houston will be the much fresher side as it will be playing for just the second time in five days. Not only do the Rockets have the edge in terms of freshness, but also in terms of motivation. Houston has lost each of the season's first three meetings and will be leaving it all on the floor to avoid the season sweep. The Rockets have been unstoppable at home of late. They are 11-0 in their last 11 home games, winning them by an average of 14.6 points. Lay the number.

7* Friday Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -4
The Key: Kentucky is off an upset win over #1 seed Wichita State as a 5-point underdog. The Wildcats are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 with the lone straight up loss during this stretch coming by a single point to #1 seed Florida. They upset Louisville 73-66 during the regular-season as a 1-point dog. They are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings with the Cardinals with both losses coming by just 3 points. Despite all this, Kentucky is catching 4 points? Clearly, odds makers are not sold on the Wildcats in this spot. Here's why. Louisville is 17-6 ATS when seeking revenge for an upset loss on the road under coach Pitino. It has won these games by an average score of 79.5 to 62.1. It is also worth noting that the Cardinals are 18-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite or pickem over the last 3 seasons, including 7-0 ATS when favored by 3.5 to 6.0 points. They have won these contests by an average score of 74.7 to 61.1. I'll ride the reigning champs in this revenge spot as I believe their big game experience pays off here.

7* NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Nets -9
The Key: The Nets need to overcome a 2 1/2-game deficit to either Atlantic Division-leading Toronto or Chicago to secure home-court advantage in the East, and they want home court. Back home and further motivated by back-to-back overtime defeats, Brooklyn will take care of business tonight. The Nets are 11-0 in their last 11 home games, winning them by an average of 11.4 points. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage less than .400, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. Lay the points.

6* Sweet 16 Bailout on San Diego State +7.5
The Key: Arizona won by nine at San Diego State clear back in November. However, it had Brandon Ashley and Dwayne Polee II didn't even play for the Aztecs. Arizona won big against Gonzaga as it forced 21 turnovers, but it won't get as many easy opportunities against SDSU. The Aztecs have had single-digit turnovers in five of their last six games and no more than 11 turnovers in eight straight games. This is significant because they are 18-6 ATS after committing 11 or less turnovers in three straight games under coach Fisher. Arizona outrebounds its opponents by an average of seven boards per game, but I expect SDSU to do a great job on the glass here, especially since it didn't in the first meeting. The Aztecs are 7-0 ATS in games played away from home 15 games or more into the season versus teams that outrebound opponents by seven or more per game under Fisher. Take the points.

6* Sweet 16 *CA$H COW* on Florida -4.5
The Key: UCLA has rolled through its first two NCAA tournament games, but it takes a big step up in competition here. Florida is one of the best defensive teams in the country, holding opponents to just 57.5 ppg, and it has been hitting on all cylinders defensively lately. The Gators have held their last five opponents to an average of 51.6 points while not allowing more than 60 points during this stretch. This is significant because they are 7-0 ATS in games played away from home after allowing 60 points or less in four straight games under coach Donovan. They have won these games by an average score of 73.3 to 57.6. Florida is also 10-3 ATS this season when matched up against very good teams that outscore the opposition by 8.0 ppg or more. The Gators have defeated these teams by an average score of 69.5 to 60.4. The Gators are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 NCAA tournament games. The Bruins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven versus the SEC. Lay the points.

7* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Wisconsin -3.5
The Key: Baylor has looked very impressive through its first two NCAA tournament contests, but it meets its match here. Baylor shot the lights out (63.8%) against Creighton and was a ridiculous 11 of 18 (61.1%) from three-point range. Baylor won't get the same looks against a bigger, more athletic Wisconsin team that limits opponents to 64.1 ppg. The Badgers are 13-3 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home versus good three-point shooting teams that make 37% or more of their attempts. The Badgers have defeated these teams by an average score of 68.2 to 60.5. Creighton is also much easier to defend than Wisconsin. All Baylor had to do was gear its defense toward slowing down McDermott. The Bears will have a much more difficult time defending a balanced Wisconsin team that has six players averaging 7.9 points or more. The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games, 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus the Big 12, 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. The Badgers got a scare from Oregon last round and will come out much stronger here as a result. Lay the points.

6* NIT *CA$H COW* on SMU -8.5
The Key: SMU has been unbelievable at home where it is 17-1 on the season. All but one of these wins came by more than 8.5 points. The Mustangs are 12-1 ATS as a home favorite or pickem this season, winning these games by an average score of 74.7 to 57.7. It is also worth noting that SMU is 8-1 ATS in home non-conference contests under Larry Brown and 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference matchups overall. Cal is just 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine, losing its two true road games during this span by 28 and 18. The Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Wizards +2.5
The Key: The Suns are fighting for a playoff spot so motivation is not an issue. However, fatigue will be. This is their third road game in four days, and it comes against a Washington team that has had the last two days off. The Wizards have had Phoenix's number of late, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings with a 12.3-point average margin of victory. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade teams seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent if the opponent checks in off a road loss. Doing so has produced a 236-142 ATS mark the last five seasons. This system is 26-12 ATS on the season. The Suns have been very good on the road this season, but Washington is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 home games versus teams that have a winning road record. Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Magic +5
The Key: This is a tough situation for Portland. Last night, the Trail Blazers spent a lot of energy erasing a 17-point deficit against Miami only to come up two points short when Damian Lillard's potential game-tying layup was blocked with just over a second to go. It will be very difficult for the Blazers to get up for this one physically and emotionally following such a tough loss. Portland is just 3-7 in its last 10 games overall and 4-12 in its last 16 on the road. The Magic have quietly been competitive at home where they have won or lost by five points or fewer in 11 of their last 13. They are 10-3 ATS during this span. Portland won the first meeting 110-94, but the final score is misleading as Orlando led the game 75-71 before being outscored 39-19 in the fourth. I don't see Portland having enough left in the take for another fourth-quarter explosion, especially on the road this time around. Plus, the Blazers are expected to be without LaMarcus Aldridge, who had 36 points in that contest. The Magic have had a day of rest, and they don't play again until Friday so they will leave it all on the floor to avoid a 10th straight loss and get a little revenge. Portland is playing its third road game in four days and has games Thursday and Friday against tough opponents so it very well could be looking to conserve some energy here. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points.

6* NIT Annihilator on Clemson -7
The Key: These teams played one like opponent this season - North Carolina. Belmont won 83-80 at North Carolina while Clemson lost 80-61 in Chapel Hill. Yet, the Tigers are laying seven points? Odds makers appear to be begging for action on Belmont with this line, but we won't oblige them. Belmont is one of the best offensive teams in the country statistically, but its stats are bolstered by playing in a weak conference. The Bruins won't get anything easy against a Clemson defense that ranks fourth in the country in points allowed per game (57.9) and first in three-point field goal percentage defense (27.9%). Belmont's hasn't been good at all this season, especially in non-conference play. It allowed 53.64% shooting in losses at South Dakota State, Denver, Kentucky and Indiana State and a home loss to VCU. It lost these games by an average of 15.8 points. These games paint the more truthful picture of this team, not the North Carolina game. You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off two or more consecutive home wins if they are a team from a major D1 conference against a team from a mid-major D1 league. Doing so has produced a 40-14 ATS mark since 1997. Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by an average of 7.6 points and have won by an average of 10.7. Lay the number.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Hawks +1.5
The Key: This isn't a good situation for Phoenix. It will be very difficult for the Suns to avoid a letdown after expending a lot of energy to erase a 22-point deficit against the Timberwolves yesterday. Phoenix is fighting to make the playoffs, but the Hawks are fighting to hang onto the eight-seed, and I expect them to be a little bit hungrier following back-to-back defeats. Atlanta blew a late double-digit lead against Toronto yesterday, getting outscored 36-15 in the fourth. That ugly collapse along with a 129-120 loss in Phoenix earlier this month assures me the Hawks will come ready to play this evening. Atlanta is on a 53-33 ATS run at home when seeking revenge for a loss where it gave up 110 points or more. Take Atlanta.

7* NCAA Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -7.5
The Key: Mercer returns four starters from a team that defeated Tennessee by eight points in the NIT last season, and it is catching 7.5 points? The Bears were 8.5-point underdogs in that game and are catching nearly as much here. And this comes after a strong performance against No. 3 seed Duke. Clearly, the books aren't sold on Mercer. Tennessee didn't show up in last season's matchup with Mercer as it allowed the Bears to shoot 50% from the floor and score 75 points. With that poor performance serving as added motivation, I expect a Tennessee team that's holding foes to 61.3 points and 40.9% shooting to show up in a big way here. Mercer is a good offensive team, but Tennessee is 7-1 ATS this season versus teams averaging 77.0 ppg or more. The Vols have held these teams to 64.7 points while averaging 74.2 against them. You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after four or more consecutive wins if they are seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament. Doing so has produced a 44-16 ATS mark since 1997. Teams fitting these parameters have lost by 9.8 points on average. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on North Carolina +2
The Key: Iowa State was dealt a big blow in its win over NC Central with Georges Niang breaking his foot. The Cyclones are a perimeter-oriented team to begin with, but they become even more so now because Niang was their best post scorer. He's also a guy they typically count on in crunch time. Without Niang, the Cyclones are easier to defend. They will also rely more heavily on the three-point shot in his absence, which doesn't bode well since North Carolina is holding opponents to just 31.1% shooting from three on the season. By and large, the UNC defense has been outstanding during its 13-2 run. The Tar Heels played their worst defensive game in a long time against Providence and will be more focused on that end here as a result. You want to back teams like UNC that have failed to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games when they are up against an opponent that has covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 139-83 ATS mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that Roy Williams' UNC teams are 101-67 ATS all-time in non-conference play. The Heels should be able to dominate the paint in this one. That, combined with the absence of Niang, gives UNC the edge.

7* Saturday NCAA Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -5
The Key: I played on Oregon Thursday as the Ducks got a great draw. Not only had they already seen and defeated BYU this season, but the Cougars were without their most versatile player. I am going against the Ducks here, though, as Wisconsin is a bad matchup for them. The Badgers are the far superior defensive team, and, unlike some years, they have no trouble scoring the basketball. Oregon has given up 75.1 ppg in games played away from home this season, and that's not going to cut it. Wiscy, meanwhile, has held opponents to just 63.4 ppg in games played outside Madison. It is also to Wisconsin's benefit that this game is being played not too far outside Madison. This will be like a home game in regard to the amount of fan support the Badgers will receive. Oregon shoots a high percentage from three and gets to the foul line, but get this - Wisconsin is 12-3 ATS in games played away from home the last three seasons versus teams that shoot 37% or better from 3-point range. It has won these games by an average of 7.7 points. It is also worth noting that the Badgers are 22-7 ATS in games taking place 15 games or more into the season versus teams that attempt 25 free throws per game or more. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bobcats +1
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a humiliating 30-point loss at Portland in the season's first meeting, Charlotte will take care of business at home in this advantageous spot. The Bobcats have had the last two days off to gear up for this revenge game, and they are a strong 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when playing on two days' rest. They are also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games with wins over Indiana, Memphis and Dallas during this span. They also have home wins over Golden State and the Clippers this season and are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 versus the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers are struggling on the road where they are 4-10 in their last 14. They have had just one day off since beating Washington and spent it traveling. The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points. Take Charlotte.

6* NCAA Tournament Early Annihilator on Florida -5
The Key: Pittsburgh rolled against Colorado while Florida struggled against Albany, but I believe we'll see a role reversal here. While Florida's offense hasn't been very good the last few games, its defense has, and that's a great sign. The Gators are 6-0 ATS in games played away from home after holding opponents to 60 points or less in four straight games under coach Donovan. They have won by an average score of 75.0 to 59.4 in this situation. It is also worth noting that Florida is 14-4 ATS under Donovan off two straight wins where it didn't cover the spread. It has won by an average score of 80.3 to 64.6 in this situation. The Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus ACC opponents and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games. The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games. Lay the points.

7* NCAA Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas State +5
The Key: Kentucky won two of three in the SEC tournament, nearly upsetting Florida in the championship game, and we are hearing a lot of talk about how it should have been a higher seed. We can't forget that Kentucky had lost three of four heading into the SEC tourney with two of the losses to South Carolina and Arkansas. I'm not convinced it is a championship contender all of the sudden. Coach Calipari's best teams have all had one thing in common - great guard play. This Kentucky team is as talented as anybody but has struggled at times because its guard play has been average. Kentucky averages only 11 assists per game, which means it is getting most of its points off one-on-one play. Kansas State, which averages 15 assists per game, has dominated teams with low assist numbers. In fact, K-State is 11-2 ATS in games played 15 games or more into the season versus teams averaging 12 assists per game or less over the last 3 seasons. It has won these games by an average score of 71.8 to 58.1. K-State enters on a 3-game losing streak, but that's not a good enough reason to lay off. Teams headed up by coach Weber are 12-3 ATS when they check in with 3 or more consecutive losses. They have won these games by an average score of 68.4 to 63.1. Kansas State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 non-conference games. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavericks -7.5
The Key: Off a loss to Minnesota and with the Nets, Thunder and Clippers on deck, this is a game a Dallas team that is fighting to hang on to a playoff spot has to have. It's also a game it wants badly. The Mavs have lost each of the season's first three meetings so it will be lacking no effort and focus here. The Mavs have been an unbelievable investment in bounce-back spots. They are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss and 43-16 ATS in their last 59 games following an ATS loss. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on North Carolina -4
The Key: North Carolina has superior talent and it will be ready to flex its muscles here after losing its last two games. The Tar Heels have been a terrific investment in bounce-back spots at 52-24-1 ATS in their last 77 games following a loss. It was the defensive side of the ball that helped the Heels rattle off 12 consecutive wins from late January to early March, but that side of the ball has let them down in their last two games. They gave up 93 to Duke and 80 to Pitt, but they are 14-5 ATS under Roy Williams after allowing 80 points or more in 2 straight games. They have won these contests by an average score of 85.9 to 70.4. Providence has frequently come up short away from home against stiff competition under Ed Cooley. In fact, it is 9-18 ATS in games played away from home versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4.0 ppg or more under his watch. The Friars have lost these games by an average score of 72.9 to 62.3. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament Annihilator on Oklahoma State -2
The Key: Oklahoma State has been a different team since Marcus Smart returned from suspension. It has gone 5-2 since the return with both losses coming in OT to very good Iowa State and Kansas teams. The Cowboys experienced a quick exit at the hands Oregon in last year's NCAA Tournament so this experienced team will be extremely focused. The Cowboys will also be out for a little payback after suffering a 1-point loss to Gonzaga last season. The Bulldogs closed the season strong with 5 straight wins with the last two coming by double-digits against St. Mary's and BYU. However, they are 0-8 ATS in games played away from home after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. They are also 5-16 ATS in games played away from home after 2 straight wins of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Often overvalued in the NCAA Tournament because of its good record, Gonzaga is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 NCAA Tournament games. The Bulldogs are also only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. When Oklahoma State is favored, it's been for good reason. The Cowboys are 61-36 ATS when laying points under coach Travis Ford. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Manhattan +16.5
The Key: The value clearly lies with Manhattan here. The reigning champs have been rolling with 5 straight covers on 5 straight double-digit victories to gain tons of public support. Louisville defeated Manhattan by 28 points last season as a 17-point favorite and is laying less than that here? The books clearly want the money on the Cardinals. Manhattan had 27 turnovers when these teams met last season, but I don't see that happening again. This experienced Manhattan squad has taken care of the rock this season and has averaged just 12.85 turnovers over its last 7 games. Coach Steve Masiello has gotten the Jaspers to play their best ball of the season late in the season. His team is now 8-0 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. The Jaspers are also 6-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 ATS in games played away from home after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

7* Round of 64 Game of the Year on Delaware +14.5
The Key: Michigan State is being overvalued here. The Spartans are finally at full strength, and they are now on a 5-0 ATS run after dominating the Big Ten tournament. The public is falling in love with Tom Izzo's club as a result and odds makers are looking to take advantage. Consider that Michigan State is just 1-8 ATS under coach Izzo as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points. It has won these games by only 8.4 points on average. Delaware played Villanova to a 4-point game on the road, and it played Ohio State to a 12-point game on the road. It is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog. The Blue Hens failed to cover the spread in the CAA tournament championship game as they got a scare from William & Mary. However, they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.

6* NCAA Tournament Annihilator on Oregon -5
The Key: BYU took Oregon to overtime on the road earlier this season. However, BYU got 15 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds and 2 blocks from Kyle Collinsworth in that game. The Cougars won't have their most versatile player this time around after Collinsworth suffered an ACL injury against Gonzaga in the WCC tournament championship game. Losing him really hurts a BYU squad that isn't very deep. Oregon has superior depth, and I expect it to be able to use that to its advantage. BYU is 0-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pickem over the last 3 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 80.8 to 67.8. Oregon is 6-0 ATS in all post-season tournament games over the last 3 seasons, winning these by an average score of 83.5 to 75.3. It also worth noting that BYU is 1-9 ATS in all tournament games played away from home over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 3-12 ATS under coach Dave Rose in games played away from home when seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Pelicans +2
The Key: This is a terrible situation for Toronto. The Raptors are playing their second road game in as many nights and were pushed to overtime last night so fatigue will definitely be an issue. They are on a 0-5 run in the second game of a back-to-back and have lost these games by 4.4 points on average. New Orleans has had the benefit of two days' rest and is 4-0 ATS in its last four games when playing on two days' rest. You want to fade teams like Toronto that allow 92.0-98.0 ppg when they're matched up with a team that gives up 102.0 ppg or more if they have combined with their opponents to score 215 points or more in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 21-4 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the Pelicans.

6* NIT *CA$H COW* (ESPN2) on Utah -1
The Key: Utah's bubble burst on selection Sunday, but the Utes already saw it coming after their ugly 71-39 loss to Arizona. Still, this team is excited about playing postseason basketball, and it will be hungry here as it looks to erase the memory of its most recent defeat. This season has turned out to be a big disappointment for Saint Mary's following back-to-back NCAA Tournament berths. Respect is given to its 15-3 home record, but most of those wins came against lesser competition. The Gaels weren't able to beat BYU or Gonzaga this season, going 0-5 against the two top teams in the league. That's a sign Saint Mary's is down, and the eye test supports that. Utah passes by eye test. While its road record isn't good, it was very competitive on the road against good teams and broke through down the stretch with a good win at Cal. The Gaels are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Utes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. WCC opponents. Take Utah.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Cavaliers +10
The Key: No Kyrie Irving for Cleveland tonight, and we are getting a good number as a result. Irving is expected to miss at least two weeks, but I don't see Cleveland packing it in. The Cavs are still in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the East. Plus, they always seem to get up for Miami. The Heat have won nine straight in the series, but five of the last six meetings have been decided by seven points or less. Four of these were decided by four points or fewer. Miami is off a big win over Houston but is 9-23-2 ATS in its last 34 games following a cover. The Heat are also a soft 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games versus a team with a losing record. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Nuggets +4.5
The Key: The Clippers play uptempo basketball. And, even though they ran away with a 22-point win over Cleveland last night, the starters still logged big minutes. Now, L.A. travels to Denver's high altitude on no rest, and I expect fatigue to be an issue. The Nuggets have had a day off and will be the fresher side. Plus, they have had no problem beating the Clippers at home where they have won 12 of 14, including three in a row. One of the two losses came by only four points so Denver is on a 13-1 ATS run in the series in terms of the 4.5-point spread posted for this game. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning record. They are also 11-1 ATS in home games the last two seasons versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 6.0 points per game or more. They have won these games by an average score of 103.8 to 98.0. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Nets -4
The Key: We'll fade the Suns in what is a rough situation. They are playing the second game of a road back-to-back as well as a third road game in four days. The Nets will be the fresher side as they have had a day of rest since their last game, and they had two days of rest prior to that one. To go along with fresh legs, Brooklyn will be motivated. It lost its last game in Washington but is on a 5-0 ATS run following defeat with an average winning margin of 12.4 points. All five wins came by at least six points. The Nets are also on a 7-0 ATS run at home with a 12.3-point average margin of victory in these games. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Warriors -1.5
The Key: After blowing a 16-point lead in Friday's loss to the Cavaliers, the Warriors held a team meeting. "You could tell people care. The fact that a lot of guys talked and voiced their commitment to what we're trying to do is good," said Stephen Curry about the meeting. I expect maximum effort here following Friday's collapse against a team the Warriors are chasing. Golden State hasn't lost three in a row since November. It has lost consecutive games four times since then and has managed to win the game directly following each time by an average of 9.5 points. Coincidentally, it defeated Portland by 15 the last time it was trying to avoid a three-game slide. The Warriors also catch Portland at a good time. The Trail Blazers are struggling and are expected to be without LaMarcus Aldridge. Plus, the first home game back after a lengthy road trip is often a letdown spot, and that's been the case for Portland, which is 0-8 ATS under coach Stotts in home games after playing 4 consecutive road games. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten Championship *CA$H COW* on Michigan State -2.5
The Key: Michigan State is on a mission to win the Big Ten tournament championship after finishing the regular season tied for second place. The Spartans believe they would have won the league had they not been bitten by the injury bug. They were missing key players in both regular-season losses to Michigan. Now that they

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Month on Hawks -6
The Key: This is a bad situation for the Nuggets, who are playing their second road game in as many nights and their fifth road game in seven days. To make matters worse, this is a major sandwich game after a huge win over Miami and with the Clippers in town Monday. Atlanta will be the far fresher side as it has had a day of rest and is playing for just the second time in five days. The Hawks are also extremely motivated as they look to hold onto the eighth and final playoff spot. Denver has been a dead fade in the second game of back-to-backs, going just 2-10 ATS in its last 12. You also want to fade underdogs 42 games or more into the season that have gone over the total in two consecutive games or more in a matchup between teams that give up 102.0 ppg or more. Doing so has produced a 61-26 ATS mark since 1996, including an 11-2 ATS mark the last three seasons. Teams fitting this system have lost by 10.8 points on average, and I'm expecting a double-digit win from the Hawks.

7* Conference Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on UConn +9
The Key: Connecticut was brutally embarrassed 81-48 at Louisville in its regular season finale, and you can bet your last buck it hasn't forgotten. While the public will be all over Louisville, history suggests that's the wrong move. You want to back neutral court underdogs that are seeking revenge for a defeat in which they were held to less than 60 points if the team they are facing checks in off a cover as a favorite of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 91-53 ATS mark since 1997. These teams have been underdogs of 9.3 points on average but have lost by an average of just 6.7 points. Take the points.

6* SEC Tourney *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +7.5
The Key: Tennessee is on the bubble, and though it looks like it's on the right side of the bubble, it knows it can leave no chance of missing the Dance by defeating Florida. The Vols have the horses to do just that. Tennessee has won three straight in the series before losing both regular-season meetings. It played the Gators to a nine-point game in the most recent meeting, and it really should have been closer than that. The Volunteers held Florida to just 36.2% from the field while shooting 45.8% themselves. The difference was the free throw line where Tennessee was just 9 of 17. Tennessee averages 16 makes on 23 free throw attempts per game so the performance was an aberration. The Vols are 30-14 ATS since 1997 when seeking revenge for two straight losses to an opponent. They haven't won these games on average but have lost them by only 1.6 points. Take the points.

7* Mountain West Tournament Game of the Year on UNLV +4.5
The Key: In all likelihood, UNLV needs to win this tournament to reach the Big Dance for a fifth straight year. That's a huge motivator. San Diego State is in the Dance, is off a 73-39 laugher over Utah State and defeated UNLV on this floor last week by nine points so it won't bring the level of focus to this contest that the Runnin' Rebels will bring. Plus, UNLV led that contest with just over three minutes remaining so the final score is misleading. The Rebels have had a ton of success in this building against SDSU lately, winning two of the last three meetings. They have won or lost by just two points in three of the last four meetings. UNLV will have the crowd behind it, which is a huge factor in close games. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points 15 games or more into the schedule in a matchup of teams averaging 67.0-74.0 ppg if they have given up 50 points or less in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 23-6 ATS mark since 1997. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Colorado +11.5
The Key: Arizona's 71-39 laugher over Utah sets it up for a letdown here, especially since it defeated Colorado by 27 in the most recent meeting. It will be very hard for the Wildcats to bring the same focus and energy to this game that they brought to yesterday's game. Colorado was brutally embarrassed at home by the Wildcats in the aforementioned game so it will be out for payback. You want to fade favorites of 10 points or more that have won eight of more of their last 10 games in the semi-final round of any tournament. Doing so has produced a 28-7 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky -4.5
The Key: This incredibly talented Kentucky team isn't at all happy with the way the regular season concluded. It lost three of its last four, and the only game it should have lost during this stretch was the last one to Florida. It's important for the Wildcats to gain some momentum with a good showing in this tournament, and I expect Coach Cal to have them ready to go. Kentucky lost at LSU earlier this season and needed OT to beat the Tigers at home Feb. 22 so it should be very focused on the task at hand. LSU took care of Alabama yesterday, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a SU win and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. Plus, Kentucky is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the six wins coming by an average of 17.2 points. Lay the number.

6* Pac-12 Tourney *POWERHOUSE* on UCLA -1
The Key: I'll lay the point with UCLA as I'm confident the Bruins will show up here. They did not show up at Washington State in their regular-season finale and lost 73-55 as a 10.5-point favorite. They also lost at home in OT to Oregon in the most recent matchup so they will be after some payback. The Bruins lost to Oregon in the championship game of last season's Pac-12 tournament and then were crushed by Minnesota in the NCAA tournament so they would like to enter the dance with some momentum this time around. The Bruins are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss. And, you want to back teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss of 15 points or more if they have a .600 to .800 win percentage and are playing a team that have a winning record. Doing so has produced a 78-38 ATS mark since 1997. Take UCLA.

6* Big Ten Tourney *CA$H COW* on Purdue +9
The Key: The Boilermakers are not happy with the way they finished the regular season. After giving Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin all they wanted and more, they lost their regular-season finale to Northwestern and wound up all alone in the Big Ten basement. You can bet that loss will have Purdue mighty motivated heading into the Big Ten Tournament. Ohio State is off a big win over Michigan State. Plus, it defeated Purdue twice this season by nine on the road and by 18 at home so it will already be looking ahead to the next round. Purdue is 8-1 ATS under coach Painter in games played away from home when seeking revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more. The Boilermakers have lost by only 0.7 points on average in this spot. You want to fade neutral court teams that have gone under the total by 42 total points or more in their last seven games if they have a winning record and are playing a losing team. Doing so has produced a 51-15 ATS mark since 1997. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

7* ACC Tournament Game of the Year on Boston College +1.5
The Key: Georgia Tech was able to follow up its win over Syracuse with a win over lowly Virginia Tech. However, the Yellow Jackets are 9-21 ATS under Brian Gregory following one or more consecutive wins. They are also 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games following an ATS win. Boston College dropped its final two regular-season games SU and ATS, but the Eagles are on a 70-38 ATS run in games played away from home after a game where they failed to cover the number. Also, teams headed up by Steve Donahue are 29-11 ATS in road/neutral court games following two or more consecutive losses. Boston College lost both regular-season meetings with Georgia Tech this season, but it will enter this contest with complete confidence as the same five starters that defeated the Yellow Jackets twice last season will take the floor tonight. You want to back underdogs seeking revenge for a close loss of 3 points or less to an opponent if they are also off a road loss of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 130-77 ATS mark the last five seasons. Lastly, the underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take B.C.

6* Big East Tourney *CA$H COW* on Seton Hall -2
The Key: Seton Hall lost both regular-season meetings with Butler, including an embarrassing 17-point loss Saturday. The Pirates didn't play well in either matchup, and Butler couldn't miss Saturday, going 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. The Pirates are the more talented side, and I expect them to advance here with the recent beating it received serving as motivation. Seton Hall was very close to having a pretty special season. It suffered five one-point losses to Oklahoma, Marquette, St. John's (twice) and Creighton. Four of these losses were in road or neutral court venues. How a team fares on the road paints a much clearer picture of what kind of a team they are. The Pirates are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home when seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They are also 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home following a double-digit loss to a conference foe. Butler is 0-7 ATS the last three seasons following two consecutive covers as a favorite. Lay the points.

6* MWC Tourney *CA$H COW* on Colorado State +3
The Key: Utah State hasn't played in a week, and I believe that's a bad thing in this case as it squashes some of the momentum gained from back-to-back wins. The Rams lost both regular-season meetings by 7 on the road and by 9 at home, but these easily could have been closer. They shot just 36.2% and 29.8% from the field in the two games. In the first meeting that they lost by 7, they were just 11 of 20 from the foul line. Colorado State averages 20 makes on 28 free throw attempts per game so it could have taken the Aggies right down to the wire had it been closer to its season average. The Rams were much better from the foul line in the second meeting (25 of 28) but couldn't throw it in the ocean. History suggests the third time will be the charm for Colorado State as teams headed up by Larry Eustachy are 34-16 ATS since 1997 when playing with double revenge. Take the points.

6* Conference Tourney *CA$H COW* on Texas-San Antonio +6.5
The Key: East Carolina is getting a little too much respect from odds makers here as these teams are pretty evenly matched. The Pirates won the lone regular season meeting by 10 points, but it was played at home and it was plus-14 points from the free throw line. They won't get as many call in this neutral floor battle. Plus, they went to the line nine more times than their season average in that game and knocked them down at a 16.5% higher clip than their season average. Texas-San Antonio made three fewer trips to the charity stripe than its season average and shot them 9.2% worse than they have this season. I don't see nearly as large of a free throw discrepancy in this one, which gives the roadrunners an excellent opportunity to cover this number. You want to fade neutral court teams like ECU that have gone under the total by 42 total points or more in their last seven games if they have a winning record and are playing a losing team. That's because doing so has produced a 50-15 ATS mark since 1997. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the season. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder -4
The Key: I expect Oklahoma City to cover this number behind a strong defensive performance. The Thunder check in off back-to-back defeats on the road where they gave up 128 points and 114 points, respectively. They allowed an average of 49.7% shooting in the two losses, which is unacceptable for a team that is holding foes to 43.5% shooting on the season. After losing to the lowly Lakers in their last game, we can expect maximum effort tonight. Oklahoma City is 45-26 ATS after two or more consecutive losses and 26-11 ATS off an upset loss on the road under coach Brooks. The Rockets are rolling. They've won five in a row with three of the wins against Miami, Indiana and Portland, but these three were at home. The road hasn't been as kind versus good teams. Recently, they have an eight-point loss in LA against the Clippers and also lost on the road to the Clippers by 19 earlier in the season. They have a 117-86 loss in Oklahoma City as well as a 114-81 loss in Indiana this season. They are just 2-4 this season in their road games versus teams (Clippers, Thunder, Spurs, Pacers) I consider to be elite. Both wins came against the Spurs, and the four losses came by an average of 22.8 points. The Thunder have had the Rockets number, winning eight of 11 meetings the last two seasons, including both this season, and their defense on James Harden has been a big reason why. They know Harden's game inside and out from his time spent in Oklahoma City, and they have held him to just 39.6% shooting in those contests. The Thunder are 4-1 at home against the Rockets during their 8-3 series run with the four wins coming by an average of 21.3 points. You want to back teams off an upset loss in a game in which they were a double-digit favorite if they carry a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are matched up against a team that also fits in that range. Doing so has produced a 32-10 ATS mark since 1996, including 6-1 ATS the last five seasons. Lay the points.

6* Conference Tourney *CA$H COW* on South Carolina State +7.5
The Key: South Carolina State just lost Thursday at Savannah State by 19 points. It also lost the season's first meeting at home by 10 points. Yet, the Bulldogs are catching less than either of those margins. Clearly, odds makers want the money on Savannah State. We won't oblige them. Because the Tigers just handled SC State so easily, their tendency will be to look ahead to the next round. The Bulldogs will bring extra energy and desire to this contest knowing they must in order to upset a team they have lost to twice this season. Savannah State has been a terrible investment, going just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 lined games. The Bulldogs are a strong 4-1-1 ATS in their last six lines neutral site battles. You want to fade neutral court favorites or pickems that average 63.0 ppg or less if they combined with their opponent for 125 points or less last game and are matched up with a team that allows 67.0-74.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 62-30 ATS mark since 1997. Take the points.

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Pacers -1.5
The Key: This is the most-motivated spot of the season for the Pacers, who have dropped three in a row and were brutally embarrassed by Charlotte and Houston in their last two games. An 81-73 Feb. 12 home loss to Dallas adds fuel to this fire. Prior to that loss, Indiana had defeated Dallas by scores of 98-87, 103-83 and 103-78. The first and last in this set came in Dallas. It is also worth noting that Indiana has held the Mavs to 38.6 percent shooting or worse in each of the last three meetings. After allowing its last two opponents to shoot better than 50.0 percent from the field, Indiana will be dialed in at the defensive end tonight. Dallas has been a poor investment in the home underdog role. In fact, it is 9-23 ATS when catching points at home under coach Carlisle, including 0-5 SU and ATS this season. The Mavs are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in Dallas. Lay the points.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Ohio State -2.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back upset losses on the road and further fueled by a four-point loss at Michigan State in the first meeting, Ohio State will take care of business on Senior Day. You want to back home favorites or pickems off two or more consecutive upset losses on the road as doing so has produced an 80-39 ATS mark since 1997. If the teams in this set returned at least four starters, like Ohio State, this system tightens up to 29-7 ATS. Revenge has been a solid angle to play on Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 22-12 ATS under coach Matta when seeking revenge for a same-season loss. They have won by an average of score of 66.5 to 61.1 in these contests. It is also extremely important to note that Michigan State is just 8-18 ATS under Izzo as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less or pickem and has lost these contests by an average score of 66.8 to 61.9. Lay the number.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Cal -4
The Key: Cal has dropped three straight and is likely on the wrong side of the bubble at this moment despite being one of the two teams to beat Arizona. This is really a must-win game for the Golden Bears, and I expect them to come through. Cal is on a 15-5 ATS run in home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. It has won by an average score of 72.9 to 60.6 in this spot. The Golden Bears are also 9-2 ATS in home games under coach Montgomery after being held to 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. They have busted out to win by an average score of 74.4 to 60.4 in this spot. Colorado is off a big upset win at Stanford, but it is just 2-5 in true road games in conference play this season with the other win coming at lowly USC. The five losses have all come by at least 11 points. The Buffaloes are 1-8 ATS the last two seasons in road games occurring 15 games or more into the schedule versus teams carrying a win percentage of 60-80%. They have lost to these teams by an average of 12.0 points. Lay the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia +5.5
The Key: Kansas has quietly struggled on the road where it is 0-3 ATS in its last three. It has lost three of its last five road games straight up and was fortunate to come away with a one-point victory at Texas Tech. West Virginia has been tough at home where it is 5-1 in its last six. It has won or lost by fewer than 5.5 points in 13 of 15 home games this season. The Mountaineers have good home wins against Iowa State, Oklahoma and Kansas State. WVU does an excellent job of taking care of the basketball. It has committed 10 turnovers or fewer in eight of its last 10 games while never committing more than 14 during this stretch. Kansas doesn't force a lot of turnovers. In fact, it hasn't forced more than 13 in its last five games and has forced more than 14 just once in its last 12 games. It will be mighty tough for Kansas to cover this number on the road against a solid team like WVU without forcing a lot of turnovers. The Jayhawks are 0-7 ATS the last two seasons in road games after four straight games of forcing 14 or less turnovers. They have won in this spot but only by 0.2 points on average. The Mountaineers are off a double-digit loss at Oklahoma, but teams headed up by Huggins are 26-13 ATS following a road loss of 10 points or more since 1997. Take the points.

7* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year on Mavericks -2.5
The Key: I love the Mavs at home tonight in what I believe is their most motivated spot of the season. Dallas has lost three in a row for the first time this season. Plus, it was embarrassed 127-111 by Portland on this floor Jan. 18. Hungry to get back in the win column and to get revenge, I expect Dallas to roll. The Trail Blazers have won six of seven, but none of those opponents entered with a winning record. They are just 1-8 in their last nine games versus teams that have a winning record. They've also dropped six of nine on the road. The Mavs have been terrific in bounce-back spots, going 41-15 ATS in their last 56 games following an ATS loss. They are also 28-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons and 10-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. Portland checks in off a 102-78 home win over Atlanta but is 8-19 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. You want to back home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are off two or more consecutive road losses if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 64-32 ATS mark since 1996. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Central Florida -2
The Key: Houston has won four in a row with an 88-84 victory over Central Florida during this stretch. It is also on a 6-0-1 ATS run. Yet, it is catching points against a team that has lost 13 of 15? Odds makers clearly aren't sold on Houston on the road where it 1-6 in its last seven and 2-8 in its last 10. I'm not either. Plus, the Knights will be motivated by revenge and will bring a little extra on senior night. You want to back teams like UCF that have failed to cover in three consecutive games or more when they're up against an opponent that has covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 136-81 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, Houston is just 3-11 ATS under coach James Dickey in road games when it checks in with wins in four or five of its last six games. It has lost by an average score of 76.9 to 63.8 in these contests. UCF has played Houston very tough lately and is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as a result. Also, the home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Bailout on CS Sacramento +1.5
The Key: Montana has won four straight, but all four came at home. The Grizzlies haven't been on the road since Feb. 15, and they are 0-2 in their last two road games and 5-8 on the road this season. Montana is off a big win over in-state rival Montana State and has had just two days to prepare for this contest. CS Sacramento, on the other hand, has had four days to gear up. The Hornets have been one tough cookie at home where they are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven. They are 6-0 ATS this season as a home dog of 6.0 points of less or pickem, winning these games by an average score of 79.0 to 68.3. Montana won the first meeting by 12, but the Hornets are 8-1 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss. Montana is only 3-11 ATS as favorite this season. Take CS Sacramento.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Richmond +6
The Key: Fueled by back-to-back upset losses on the road and an 11-point defeat at VCU last month, Richmond will give the Rams all they want and more. The Spiders have been outstanding at home where they are 7-1 in their last eight and 10-2 in their last 12. One of these two defeats came by a single point so they are on an 11-1 ATS run at home based on tonight's line. VCU has been far from a juggernaut on the road where it is 1-3 in its last four and 3-5 in its last eight. It has especially struggled on the road versus good defensive teams like Richmond that hold opponents to 42% shooting or worse. It is just 3-13 ATS versus such teams the last two seasons. It is also worth noting that the Rams are 3-12 ATS the last two seasons in road games after two or more consecutive wins. The home team has held a significant advantage in this series. It is 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 12.7 points. It is also 7-1 in the last eight meetings with the lone loss coming by a single point, which means we have an 8-0 ATS run in play based on tonight's line. Take the points.

7* SEC Game of the Year on Auburn +4.5
The Key: Tennessee is off a 76-38 laugher over Vandy. However, things haven't gone as well for the Vols on the road where they are 0-4 ATS in their last four. It's the last home game of the season for Auburn, which means we can expect the Tigers to leave it all on the floor. They have lost six straight to Tennessee so they will be lacking no motivation. Auburn has performed well at home where it is 11-4 in its last 15. The home team has been dominant in this series, going 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Auburn was crushed at Alabama last time out and will be even more focused here as a result. Consider that the Tigers are on a 24-11 ATS run after trailing in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half. Tennessee is just 6-15 ATS under coach Martin after holding their previous opponent to 25 points or less in the first half. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Magic +7
The Key: This is a bad spot for Houston. The Rockets are off a huge win over the Heat last night and have games against Indiana, Portland and Oklahoma City on deck. So not only is this a letdown spot, it's a look-ahead spot for the Rockets. Orlando has quietly been outstanding at home where it is 8-2 in its last 10 with wins over Oklahoma City and Indiana. Neither of the losses came by more than five points, which means we have a perfect 10-0 trend in our favor. It is also worth noting that the Rockets are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings overall and 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Orlando. Plus, the Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing without a day of rest. The Magic have had the last two days off so they will be the fresher side. We'll take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Cavaliers +7.5
The Key: Cleveland is catching the Spurs at the right time. San Antonio is off a big win over division rival Dallas, and it has a big showdown with Miami Thursday. The Spurs will want to make sure they have plenty left in the tank for Thursday as they seek revenge for their Finals loss so I expect them to go through the motions here. Cleveland will also be the fresher side as it has had the last two days off while San Antonio has had just a day off. The Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days' rest. The Cavs are also 10-4 ATS this season in the home underdog role. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Central Michigan +7.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from Toledo as it hits the road following Saturday's huge overtime revenge win over Western Michigan. The Rockets also have a revenge game on deck against Eastern Michigan so the tendency will be to look ahead, especially since they defeated the Chippewas by 15 in the first meeting. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games, 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a cover and 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record. Take the points.

6* ACC Annihilator on NC State +10.5
The Key: NC State was upset at home by Miami by 15 points Saturday. However, that game was played in the wake of a crushing overtime loss to North Carolina. The Wolfpack will be hungry here as they look to bounce back from Saturday's ugly loss and get revenge for a home loss to Pitt earlier this season. The Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS under Mark Gottfried in road games following a home loss of 10 points or more. They have won these six contests by an average score of 71.7 to 65.5. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Panthers have been a poor investment this season at home where they are 3-10 ATS in lined games and 1-7 ATS after two or more consecutive wins. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a losing road record. You want to back road underdogs of 10.0 to 19.5 points off an upset loss of 15 points or more at home as doing so has produced a 73-37 ATS mark since 1997. In addition, double-digit underdogs playing their second game in three days that are off an upset loss are 136-84 ATS since 1997. You also back to back road underdogs of 10 or more points that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 113-66 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Nets -3
The Key: This is a tough situation for Chicago, which is playing its second game in as many days, third in four days and fifth in seven days. Brooklyn, on the other hand, got a much needed day off yesterday and is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on one days' rest. I'm also confident the Nets will want this game just a little bit more. They lost a tough seven-game series to the Bulls in last year's playoffs and have been unable to get revenge in two chances this season, losing by 17 and 16, respectively. The 17-point loss came at home on Christmas day, but the Nets have been a far different home team since then. They are 11-2 in their last 13 home games, including 4-0 in their last four, with wins over Golden State, Miami, Dallas and San Antonio during this stretch. Brooklyn can also get back to .500 for the first time since Nov. 5 with a win so the prospect of reaching that mark provides added incentive. Lay the points.

7* Pac-12 Powerhouse of the Week on UCLA -12.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats as well as a loss at Oregon State in the first meeting, UCLA will show no mercy in its final home game of the regular season. When the Bruins have been asked to lay double-digits, it's been for good reason. They are 8-1 ATS this season as a favorite of 10 points or more, winning these games by an average score of 93.7 to 68.6. Oregon State checks in off a double-digit win at USC, and that bodes extremely well for us. The Beavers are on a 1-10 ATS slide in games following a double-digits road win. UCLA is 9-0 in its last nine home games versus the Beavers, winning these contests by an average of 19.0 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA Sunday Night *CA$H COW* on Mavs +5.5
The Key: Dallas will be the hungrier team this evening as it looks to bring a seven-game losing streak to the Spurs to an end. The Mavs have been a tremendous investment on the road where they are 40-16 ATS in their last 56. They've especially been valuable on the road against explosive offensive teams like the Spurs that average 103.0 ppg or more. The Mavs are 42-17 ATS on the road against such teams under coach Carlisle, including 9-1 ATS this season. It is also worth noting that they are 70-39 ATS under Carlisle as a road underdog of six points or less. It is also significant that the Mavs are off a SU and ATS loss to the Bulls since they are 40-15 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS defeat. The Spurs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

7* MAC Game of the Year on Toledo -5.5
The Key: Toledo holds all the motivational advantages in this game. The Rockets need a win to pull even with Western Michigan in the MAC West. They have lost the last three meetings in the series, including an 11-point loss in this season's first meeting. They are also off an upset loss at Northern Illinois. Four starters return from last year's team which was swept by the Broncos, and they aren't about to get swept again. The Rockets are 13-0 at home where they have won by an average of 12.7 points. Teams headed up by coach Kowalczyk are 17-5 ATS following an upset loss and 14-4 ATS after failing to cover in three or more consecutive games. Western Michigan is 7-17 ATS under coach Hawkins in road games off a road win. The Broncos are also 0-7 ATS in road games the last three seasons after a combined score of 155 points or more in their previous game. They have lost by an average of 15.0 points in this situation. Lay the points.

6* MVC *CA$H COW* on Southern Illinois -3
The Key: Off an ugly loss at Northern Iowa and out for revenge for four consecutive double-digit losses to Illinois State, Southern Illinois will show up in a big way in its last game of the regular season. The Salukis are an impressive 12-1 ATS the last two seasons when seeking same-season revenge. Plus, Illinois State has had all kinds of problems on the road. The Redbirds are 0-6 ATS this season in road games against teams that have a losing record, losing to these teams by 8.0 points on average. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last five road games versus teams that have a winning home record. Illinois State is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games against teams carrying a win percentage of 20-40% and has lost to these teams by 9.2 points on average. The Salukis are 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team that has a winning record. Lastly, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Lay the points.

6* Situational Slam Dunk on Valparaiso -1.5
The Key: This is a bad spot for Cleveland State, which is playing on the road for the first time since Feb. 8. To make matters worse, the Vikings don't have anything to play for as Tuesday's overtime win against Youngstown State locked up the No. 2 seed for the conference tournament. It's the last home game of the season for Valpo, and teams tend to show up when that is the case. This is also a revenge spot for the Crusaders, who were crushed by 19 in the first meeting. Home court has been huge in this series with the home team going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last four visits to Valparaiso, losing these games by 10.8 points on average. Lay the number.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dartmouth +5
The Key: Columbia is off a big win over Yale and has a showdown at Harvard tomorrow so I expect it to get caught looking ahead in this sandwich game, especially since it posted a 10-point win over Dartmouth Feb. 15. The Big Green have lost six in a row so they will want this game like blood. This is also their first home game since Feb. 8, and they are a respectable 7-6 at home. Columbia is just 3-7 on the road. The Lions are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in road games occurring 15 games or more into the schedule versus teams carrying a win percentage of 20-40%. They have lost to these teams by an average score of 70.7 to 61.2. Columbia is also 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6.0 points under coach Kyle Smith, losing these games by an average score of 69.8 to 62.0. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Line Mistake of the Month on Texas-San Antonio +2.5
The Key: Odds makers have the wrong team favored here. North Texas has been favored five times this season and is 0-5 ATS in those games. Looking back further, the Mean Green are on a 3-17 ATS slide as a road favorite of 6.0 points or pickem. They have won three in a row and covered the spread in their last two. However, they are 0-7 ATS when checking in with three wins in four games under coach Benford and have lost these games by an average score of 78.0 to 61.6. They are also 0-7 ATS in road games under Benford when checking in with two covers in their last three games. They have lost these seven contests by an average score of 84.9 to 66.0. Texas-San Antonio is back home following back-to-back road games, and home has treated the Roadrunners well. They are 5-2 in their last seven home games. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 Powerhouse on Arizona State -1.5
The Key: Off back-to-back losses on the road where the Sun Devils were held to 52 and 63 points respectively, they will be happy to take the floor at home where they are 14-1 on the season and averaging 78.7 ppg. Arizona State is 31-16 ATS off two consecutive losses in conference play under coach Sendek. It is also 6-0 ATS the last two seasons after being held to 65 points or less in two straight games and has won by an average score of 78.0 to 70.7 in this spot. There is also a revenge angle in play as Stanford won the season's first meeting. Stanford has also won its last two visits to Tempe so the Sun Devils will be lacking no motivation here. Lay the number.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Purdue +5.5
The Key: Michigan is primed for a letdown as it hits the road following a big win over rival Michigan State. The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win and 6-15 ATS in road games off a win against a conference foe over the last three seasons. It is also worth noting that Michigan is 5-14 ATS as a road favorite or pickem under coach Beilein. Purdue is coming off a 19-point loss at Nebraska, but it is 28-10 ATS off a loss of 10 points or more to a conference foe under coach Painter and has won these games by an average score of 68.2 to 64.8. Purdue is 12-3 at home this season, and it has won or lost by fewer than 5.5 points in eight straight home games versus Michigan. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +2.5
The Key: The Trail Blazers have lost six of their last eight on the road, and they are in serious danger of losing another road game here. They check in off an 11-point win over Minnesota but are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points and 7-19 ATS the last three seasons in road games after a win by 10 points or more. The Nuggets have struggled without Ty Lawson. While there's a chance he could return tonight, I like them in this spot regardless. They will be highly motivated following back-to-back poor performances. They'll be further motivated by losses in the first two meetings with Portland. One of those was an embarrassing 113-98 loss in Denver that ended a nine-game home winning streak in the series. The Nuggets are 24-3 in their last 27 home games against the Blazers. The Nuggets are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. Also, the underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* on Utah State +12
The Key: Expect a letdown from New Mexico following a big 58-44 win over San Diego State. You want to fade home favorites of 10-19.5 points that are off a home win against a conference opponent when they are matched up against a foe that's off an upset loss at home. Doing so has produced a 107-63 ATS mark since 1997. New Mexico won the first meeting 78-65. However, double-digit road underdogs that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent are 110-66 ATS the last five seasons, provided they carry a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. It's also worth noting that double-digit road dogs off an upset loss in conference play are 45-20 ATS the last five seasons when matched up against an opponent off a double-digit home win. It's been a down year for Utah State, but it's still shown flashes, like when it took San Diego State to OT. In addition, the Aggies have lost just three of 10 games played away from home this season by more than 11 points. Utah State missed a really good opportunity last game to get coach Stew Morrill his 600th career win. They'll lay it all on the line in hopes of doing so here. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Wake Forest +2.5
The Key: Wake Forest has lost seven in a row SU and ATS, but in its defense four of the last five were on the road. This is the first of three straight at home, where the Demon Deacons are 12-3 on the season, and I expect them to leave it all on the floor in an attempt to end a lengthy skid and finish the season on a high note. Wake's last loss was a brutal 105-72 defeat to red-hot North Carolina. However, the Demon Deacons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss of more than 20 points. They are also 9-2 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games under coach Bzdelik. Clemson checks in off back-to-back wins and covers, but it is on a 13-26 ATS slide off two straight wins against conference foes and 33-58 ATS slide after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. Clemson has had a rough go of it at Wake Forest, where the Demon Deacons are 11-1 in the last 12 meetings. When the line is +3 to -3 in a game that takes place 15 games or more into the schedule, you want to back teams like Wake Forest that average 67-74 ppg if they are off two straight double-digit losses and are up against a team that allows 63 ppg or less. Doing so has produced a 48-18 ATS mark since 1997, including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark this season. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +2.5
The Key: With David Lee out due to an illness and Andrew Bogut expected to miss again with a shoulder injury, the Pistons will have a significant edge on the interior this evening. I expect Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond to give the Warriors big problems in the paint tonight. The Warriors were last in action Saturday, earning a home win and cover against Brooklyn. However, they are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. The win over Brooklyn was their second straight at home, significant because the Warriors are just 4-14 ATS under Mark Jackson following two or more consecutive home wins. They have lost by an average score of 103.6 to 98.5 in this spot. The Pistons are off a double-digit loss to Dallas, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points. They're also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lastly, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on NC-Greensboro -1.5
The Key: Chattanooga has lost its mojo. It is 2-4 since winning 10 straight from Dec. 29 to Jan. 25, including 0-3 on the road. While a 77-61 home loss to Georgia Southern last game should have the Mocs motivated, I believe NC-Greensboro will want this game just a little bit more. This is the final home game for the Spartans. With challenging games at Davidson and Wofford to conclude the season, the Spartans will go after this one with all they've got in hopes of ending a two-game losing streak. Greensboro lost 77-67 at Chattanooga in the first meeting, and that loss only adds fuel to the fire. Prior to that loss, Greensboro had won five straight in the series by an average of 10.0 points so they won't be lacking any confidence today. You want to fade road teams that suffered an ATS loss of 18 points or more in their previous game if they carry a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 40-49%. Doing so has produced a 33-9 ATS mark since 1997. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last five seasons. Lay the number.