6* Pac-12 Powerhouse on USC +12
The Key: I expect a letdown from Arizona following a huge win over UCLA. I also expect an inspired effort from USC following back-to-back disappointing performances. You want to fade favorites of 10.0-19.5 points that are undefeated on the season and have covered the spread in 4 or 5 or their last 6 games. Doing so has produced a 36-19 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. The Trojans are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games following a double-digit loss at home. In addition, teams headed up by coach Andy Enfield are 7-0 ATS all-time 15 games or more into the schedule when playing against a team that has a winning record. USC won last season's home meeting 89-78 as a 7-point dog. The Trojans have won or lost by fewer than 12 points in each of their last 8 home games against the Wildcats. They have won or lost by 12 points or less in 12 straight at home in the series. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

6* AFC Divisional Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Broncos -9.5
The Key: The San Diego Chargers have been a great story, but I believe their story comes to an end in Denver. The Chargers played the Broncos to an 8-point game at home and then won in Denver by 7 points as a 9.5-point dog and yet they are catching 9.5 points again? Clearly oddsmakers aren't sold on the Bolts. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season when they check in off an upset victory if they have a winning record and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 72-37 ATS mark since 1983. Denver finished the regular-season with a 34-14 win in Oakland. This is significant because the Broncos are 8-0 ATS under coach John Fox off a road win against a division rival. The Broncos are also 15-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Fox. It is also worth noting that the Broncos are on a 15-1 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. Lay the points.

7* Sunday Divisional Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on 49ers -1
The Key: The 49ers are a different team than the one that loss to Carolina by a point in early November. They had just 46 passing yards in that game, but the passing attack has come alive since the return of Michael Crabtree. The 49ers are 6-0 since his return, and I expect him to play a significant role here. The 49ers are 9-1 ATS in road games versus teams that allow opponents to complete an average of 61% of their passes or more under coach Jim Harbaugh. The Niners are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-1 ATS the last 2 seasons as a road favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco is 9-1 ATS under Harbaugh when taking on a team with a win percentage of 75% or greater. Take the 49ers.

6* Saturday AFC Divisional Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Patriots -7
The Key: Expect a letdown from Indianapolis following last week's thrilling comeback. It is a bad sign that Indy found itself in such a big hole at home. The Colts certainly can't count on a choke job from Tom Brady and company in Foxborough. You want to fade any team off an upset win at home if they have a winning record on the season and are playing another winning team. Doing so has produced a 78-38 ATS mark since 1983. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS off a double-digit win over a division rival the last 3 seasons. New England is also 34-21 ATS under Belichick as a home favorite of 7 points or less and 25-14 ATS under its head coach as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Lay the points.

6* Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on Tennessee-Martin +11.5
The Key: Tennessee-Martin has had five days to prepare for this game, and it will be hungry to avenge last season's brutally embarrassing loss at Belmont. The Bruins have been a poor investment following a cover at 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Furthermore, they are 1-8 ATS under coach Byrd in road games off a road win of 10 points or more, only winning by 2.2 points on average in this situation. The Bruins are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record. Take the points.

7* NFL Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year on Saints +8
The Key: New Orleans was humiliated when it visited Seattle Dec. 2. It was also stunned in its previous meeting in Seattle, a 41-36 loss in the 2011 postseason. Because of these brutal losses, I believe Drew Brees and company will want this game just a little bit more. Seattle has looked nearly unbeatable at home this season, but Cincinnati was undefeated at home before the Chargers crushed the Bengals last week. I went with San Diego in that matchup as they were out for revenge, and I liked the veteran Philip Rivers better than Andy Dalton in such a big game. Similarly, I like the more proven Drew Brees over Russell Wilson here. You want to back road underdogs or pickems in a conference game after a game where both it and its opponent scored 24 points or more. Doing so has produced a 41-18 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Seattle is just 12-27 ATS off a win of 10 points or more over a division rival since 1992. New Orleans is 19-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 24.0 ppg or more under coach Sean Payton. Take the points.

7* WCC Game of the Month on Pacific -5
The Key: Expect a letdown from Santa Clara following Thursday's huge win at St. Mary's. Pacific, on the other hand, will be in extreme bounce-back mode after an 0-4 start in conference play. Pacific fell at home to Santa Clara last season and will be further fueled by that loss. Pacific is 17-7 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and 35-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. Lay the points.

6* AAC Game of the Week on Temple +7.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from Memphis following a big win at Louisville Thursday. Temple, meanwhile, will be in bounce-back mode after being upset by South Florida. The Owls are a terrific 16-4 ATS under coach Dunphy in home games versus very good teams like Memphis that outscore opponents by 8+ points/game. Temple has defeated these teams by an average score of 74.8 to 71.4. The Owls are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

7* Big East Game of the Year on St. John's +5
The Key: Motivated by an 0-2 start in conference play and further motivated by a pair of double-digit losses to Villanova last season, St. John's is in prime position to pull off the upset. The Johnnies have had six days to prepare for this game while Villanova has had only two days. Plus, St. John's has been outstanding at home where it is 7-1 on the season with the loss coming by only five points to Syracuse. St. John's is 8-1 ATS off a loss of 10 points or more to a conference foe over the last 2 seasons. It is also 9-2 ATS under Lavin in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take the points.

6* Early Annihilator on Oklahoma +3.5
The Key: Look for Oklahoma to give Iowa State all it wants and more here. The Cyclones are a good team, but they have benefited from a home-heavy schedule to this point. This is just their third true road game of the season, and they struggled in the previous two against BYU and Texas Tech. Oklahoma likes to play a free-flowing style, which is evident by its 92.0 ppg average at home. Iowa State's style of play feeds right into what Oklahoma likes to do. The Sooners are 7-0 ATS in home games under coach Kruger versus teams like Iowa State that average 17 fouls per game of less. They have won these games by 13.0 points on average. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +7.5
The Key: The Kings have some nice recent wins against the Heat, Rockets and Trail Blazers. However, they have some bad recent losses against the Pelicans, 76ers and Bobcats. This tells me Sacramento is getting up for the good teams (and those teams are overlooking the Kings) and not coming to play against lesser competition. In fact, the Kings are just 7-18 ATS in home games versus teams that have a losing record over the last two seasons and have lost to these teams by an average score of 104.2 to 102.9. Looking back further, Sacramento is a lousy 19-40-2 ATS in its last 61 games versus teams that have a losing record. The Kings won in Orlando 105-100 Dec. 21 for a third straight win in the series so I don't see them being nearly as hungry as an Orlando team that is looking to avenge that loss and looking to snap a five-game skid overall. The Kings are 0-10 ATS as a favorite under coach Michael Malone, losing these games by an average score of 105.7 to 98.0. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Bailout on Portland +9
The Key: You want to fade any team like Gonzaga that checks in off a blowout win of 20 points or more over a conference opponent if they have a winning percentage of 80% or higher and are playing a team with a 51-60% win percentage. Doing so has produced a 36-12 ATS mark the last five seasons. Teams fitting thee parameters have been favored by 9.5 points on average but have won by only 6.7 points on average. Gonzaga hasn't played a true road game in a month, and it is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Bulldogs are also 2-10 ATS the last three seasons in road games after 3 straight wins of 10 points or more. They have won these games on average but only by 2.5 points. The Pilots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

7* Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Nebraska +4
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to start Big Ten play, and further fueled by double-digit losses to Michigan each of the past two seasons, this experienced Nebraska team will play some inspired basketball on its home floor this evening. Nebraska has been tough as nails at home where it is 9-0 in its last nine. This young Michigan squad, which is without arguably its best player (Mitch McGary), will have a tough time making it out of Lincoln alive. The Wolverines check in off a blowout win over Northwestern. However, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. They are also just 8-17 ATS off a win of 10 points or more over a conference foe under coach Beilein, losing these contests by an average score of 65.0 to 63.1. The Wolverines are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 versus the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers are 11-2 ATS off a loss to a conference foe under coach Miles. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Take the points.

7* Pac-12 Powerhouse on Washington State +7.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back ugly losses on the road and further fueled by an upset loss to Colorado last season, look for Washington State to step up when it takes the floor at Spokane Arena tonight. The Buffaloes are off a big 100-91 win over Oregon, which puts them squarely in letdown mode. The Buffaloes are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game, including 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. These trends speak to the way odds makers overvalue teams following strong offensive performances. We are getting additional line value here because Washington State is coming off two putrid offensive performances. Consider that the Cougars are on a 25-12 ATS run when playing away from their home arena after being held to 60 points or less in two straight games. Teams headed up by coach Ken Bone are 34-18 ATS all-time after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Month on Nets +6.5
The Key: This is a terrible spot for Golden State, which is playing its second road game in as many days, its third road game in four days and its seventh road game in 11 days. With all the travel and virtually no rest, I don't see Golden State having enough left in the tank to cover this number against a rested Brooklyn team that is playing its best basketball of the season. The Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win while the Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the Warriors are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 road meetings. Take the points as Brooklyn has an excellent opportunity to win this game outright.

6* NBA Motivational Mismatch on Hawks +5
The Key: Atlanta will undoubtedly be the more motivated team tonight. The Pacers are off a satisfying revenge win over Toronto last night, and they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Hawks have dropped three in a row, which is motivation enough, but they will be even more juiced up by the fact they were knocked out of the playoffs by the Pacers last season. Indy has had significant struggles in Atlanta, going 1-13 in its last 14 meetings there, including 0-11 in the regular season. Take the points.

6* Big East *CA$H COW* on Providence +2.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats to open conference play and out to end an 8-game losing streak to Georgetown, I expect Providence to take care of business at home where it is 7-1 this season. That lone loss came by a single point so the Friars have been within this number in all 8 home games this season. I'm not hesitating to get behind this 8-0 trend given the level of motivation Providence has here. The Hoyas check in off a blowout win over St. John's, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Jazz +7
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Thunder, who will be playing their third game in four days. Utah will be the fresher side as it has had three days off prior to this game. Utah will also be the hungrier side because it has lost the season's first two meetings. The Jazz played the Thunder to a three-point game at home in the season opener when Oklahoma City didn't have Russell Westbrook available, and that will be the case again tonight. The Jazz didn't have Trey Burke available for that game, but he'll be in the lineup tonight. He's been a major contributor since making his way into the lineup. He leads the team in assists per game and has emerged as the third leading scorer. The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points while the Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Thunder are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on TCU +5.5
The Key: Off a big upset win over Oklahoma State and with a big game at rival Kansas on deck, the Wildcats won't give TCU their full attention. TCU, on the other hand, will be very focused after opening Big 12 play with a loss and after losing both of last season's meetings with the Wildcats. This is Kansas State's first true road game of the season, and it has not been a good investment on the road. The Wildcats are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a winning home record. K-State is also just 6-18 ATS in Tuesday night road games since 1997, losing these by an average score of 76.0 to 66.8. Take TCU.

7* BCS National Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -9
The Key: Auburn is extremely fortunate to be here as it has been the beneficiary of some very lucky breaks. Florida State, on the other hand, has won every game by at least 14 points. Defense wins championships, and that's why the Seminoles hold a significant advantage in this matchup. They rank No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense with 10.7 points allowed per game and No. 3 in total defense with 268.5 yards allowed per game. Having had a month to prepare, FSU should have success slowing down Auburn's read-option attack. Auburn ranks 38th in the country in scoring defense with 24.0 points allowed per game and 89th in total defense with 423.5 yards allowed per contest. It has been extremely vulnerable through the air, ranking 102nd against the pass. Auburn's defensive unit will have a tough time slowing down a balanced and explosive FSU offense that leads the nation with 53.0 ppg and ranks 5th in total offense with 529.4 ypg. The Seminoles are 6-0 ATS all-time under Jimbo Fisher after 7 or more consecutive wins. They are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 bowl games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Lay the points.

7* Southern Conference Game of the Month on Citadel +4.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Chattanooga, which is off an upset win at Furman and playing its second road game in three days. The Citadel has had three days to prepare for this contest, and they will be lacking no motivation after losing both of last season's meetings. Chattanooga is a soft 56-84 ATS when playing on one or less days' rest since 1997. The Mocs are just 5-14 ATS in road games following a conference game over the last 3 seasons and 37-60 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1997. It is also worth noting that they are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games when matched up against a team with a win percentage of .200 to .400 in games played 15 games or more into the schedule. They have lost these games by an average of 10.5 points. The Citadel is 11-3 ATS the last 3 seasons when checking in with losses in 4 of its last 5 games. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Wizards +3.5
The Key: This is a difficult situation for the Warriors, who are playing their third road game in four days and their fifth road game in eight days. Washington has been at home to start the month and has had at least one day of rest in between each of its four games. The Wizards will be very hungry here because they have lost their last two games at home, and this is their last home game before they head out on the road for three games. The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Washington is also 20-8 ATS as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Packers +3
The Key: Aaron Rodgers is back, and that means the Packers have an opportunity to make a Super Bowl run. The 49ers won 34-28 when these two met in San Francisco in the season opener, but they received a stellar performance through the air from Colin Kaepernick, who hasn't done anything like it since. The Packers were knocked out of last season's playoffs by the 49ers so they will be extremely motivated. They should benefit from having home field this time around as they are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Niners. You want to back teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out for revenge for a close loss of seven points or less to opponent if they also check in off a win over a division rival. Doing so has produced a 17-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and a 10-1 ATS mark the last three seasons. Also, the Packers are 8-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a win percentage of 75% or greater since 1992. They have won these eight contests by an average score of 26.7 to 12.9. Take the Packers.

6* Wild Card *CA$H COW* on Chargers +7
The Key: Philip Rivers and company are having a ton of fun and playing with a ton of confidence. They lost the regular-season meeting by seven points but have won four in a row since, including a win in Denver, so they enter this contest believing they can win. The Chargers also have wins over Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Kansas City so they clearly have what it takes to keep this one within the number. All the pressure is on Cincy as it is expected to win this game, and teams often don't perform their best when under pressure. The Bengals have been outstanding at home, but the Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a winning home record. Also, the Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games. The Chargers have won or lost by 7 points or less in 12 of their last 13 meetings with the Bengals. Take the points as San Diego takes Cincy right down to the wire.

7* Wild Card *HEAVY HITTER* on Saints +3
The Key: New Orleans has struggled on the road, but Drew Brees and company have a lot more big-game experience on their side. Plus, Brees and his talented corps of wide receivers should be able to take advantage of a Philadelphia defense that ranks dead last in the league against the pass in almost any condition. The Saints are second in the NFL in passing offense, and they are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons versus teams like Philly that give up an average of 260.0 passing yards or more per game. The Saints have won these six contests by an average score of 36.0 to 16.0. In addition, Philly is a soft 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 home games and 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 versus teams with a winning record. New Orleans ranks No. 4 in the NFL in both total and scoring defense, and it should be able to get more stops than Philly's susceptible defensive unit. Take New Orleans.

7* Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year on Bradley +4.5
The Key: Motivated by Wednesday's 80-46 loss at Northern Iowa and further fueled by an 81-66 loss to Drake in last season's MVC Tournament, Bradley will be all business when it takes the floor this evening. In fact, I expect Geno Ford's squad to pull the upset against a Drake team that will be riding a little too high on the horse following a 94-66 win over Evansville. Bradley is 9-2 ATS all-time under Ford in home games following a loss of 15 points or more. It has won by an average score of 72.1 to 64.9 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference Annihilator on Rice +12
The Key: Off a big win over rival Boston College, and with a big game at UConn on deck, it will be easy for Harvard to look right past a Rice team it defeated 92-62 last season. Rice will be very motivated by that defeat, which gives it an opportunity to pull off the shocker against a Harvard team that will likely be napping. You want to back underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points hat have gone under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games as doing so has produced a 6-1 ATS mark this season, a 16-2 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and a 29-5 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Also, Harvard is just 2-9 ATS under coach Amaker in road games after leading their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half. Take the points.

6* Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Monroe +4
The Key: This is a game ULM has circled prior to the season. It lost both games to the Ragin' Cajuns last season and will be out for some serious revenge as a result. This is a poor spot for ULL for a number of reasons. The Ragin' Cajuns are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a win, 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games versus a team with a winning home record. ULL is also only 2-9 ATS off any home win the last two seasons, losing by an average score of 76.6 to 71.1 in these games. Take the points.

6* Wild Card *CA$H COW* on Chiefs +3
The Key: Right away one has to like the fact that road teams that check in off a road loss and are out for revenge for a loss against the team they are facing are 73-35 ATS the last 10 seasons. In addition, you want to back any team that is out for revenge for a loss where it was held to less than nine points if it checks in off an extremely close defeat of three points or less to a division rival. Doing so has produced a 37-13 ATS mark since 1983. The Chiefs are a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Andy Reid in road games when playing on 6 or less days' rest. The Colts won the regular-season meeting 23-7 in Kansas City, but it hasn't been wise to go against Andy Reid in revenge spots. Teams headed up by Reid are 27-10 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. His teams have won these games by an average score of 22.1 to 19.6. Reid's teams are 16-6 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent, and they have won these games by an average score of 20.9 to 19.8. Lastly, his teams are 15-5 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent, winning by an average score of 21.8 to 20.3 in this spot. Take Kansas City.

6* NBA Western Conference Annihilator on Nuggets -3.5
The Key: Motivated by 8 consecutive defeats, one of which being a 120-99 beatdown in Memphis Dec. 28, the Nuggets will want this game more. Denver held a team meeting following an ugly home loss to Philadelphia, and I expect maximum effort in the aftermath. Denver is 27-2 in its last 29 at home versus Memphis, including 10-1 in the last 11. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with an 8.4-point average margin of victory. Lay the points.

6* Orange Bowl *CA$H COW* on Clemson +3
The Key: The Ohio State defense has really struggled against the pass. It ranks 106th nationally against the pass with 259.5 yards per game allowed. It really struggled down the stretch, giving up 451 passing yards to Michigan and 304 to Michigan State. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. I don't see the Buckeyes being able to contain Tajh Boyd and Clemson's prolific passing attack. Ohio State does have one of the top run defenses in the country, but that won't do it much good here. Besides, Clemson is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons versus good run defenses that allow 120.0 rushing yards or less per game. The Tigers are also 8-1 ATS the last 2 seasons when they check in with 3 wins in a 4-game span. I think motivation is also an issue for the Buckeyes tonight as they had their sights set on playing in the BCS title game. Ohio State will miss defensive end Noah Spence, who led the team in sacks. It looks like top cover corner Bradley Roby will miss this contest as well. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Hawks +3
The Key: This is a letdown spot for Golden State following last night's big win in Miami. This is also a fatigued spot for the Warriors, who are playing their third road game in four days. Atlanta will be the much fresher side as it has had two days off. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. The Hawks have been fantastic at home where they are 8-1 in their last nine, including 5-0 in their last five. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the West, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the Pacific division and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. You want to fade road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that went over the total by more than 18 points in their last game if they carry a .600 to .750 win percentage and are matched up against a team that has a winning record. Doing so has produced an 18-2 ATS mark the last 3 seasons. Lastly, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Eastern Conference Annihilator on Wizards -2.5
The Key: This is a sandwich game for Toronto, which is coming off a big win over Indiana and has Miami on deck. The Wizards will be out for revenge for an earlier loss in Toronto, and I like their chances considering they are 5-1 in their last 6 home games against the Raptors, winning these by an average of 10.6 points. The Wizards lost their last game to Dallas but are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus the East and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the Atlantic division. Lay the points.

6* Sugar Bowl *CA$H COW* on Alabama -16.5
The Key: Alabama wishes it was playing for another national title, but it won't roll over. I expect the Tide to prove that it really is the best team in the country by crushing Oklahoma. The Sooners are 0-7 ATS versus SEC opponents under coach Bob Stoops. The Sooners are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games while the Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Alabama is 17-8 ATS under Saban when laying 10.5 to 21 points and 10-2 ATS under Saban in road/neutral field non-conference contests. The Tide are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss, winning these by an average of 28.2 points. They are 4-0 in their last 4 bowl games, winning these by 26.8 points on average. Lay the number.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Knicks +11
The Key: The Knicks have had four days to prepare for this game while the Spurs have had just one. The Knicks have lost three in a row by double digits and were hammered at home by the Spurs in the first meeting so New York will be lacking no motivation. San Antonio has a big revenge game against the Clippers up next so it will be very easy for it to look ahead to that contest. The Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. You also want to fade home favorites of 10 or more points after 3 or more consecutive wins if they carry a win percentage of .750 or higher and are playing a losing team. Doing so has produced a 50-27 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Northwestern +10.5
The Key: Right away, we find that the odds are in our favor as fading favorites of 10 points or more that check in with a winning streak of at least 10 games has produced a 147-96 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, you want to fade favorites of 10 to 19.5 points that are undefeated on the season and have covered the spread in four or five of their last six games. Doing so has produced a 35-15 ATS mark the last five seasons. Wisconsin hasn't been on the road in a month, and it is 12-22 ATS all-time under coach Ryan in road games after two consecutive covers as a favorite. Wisconsin is on a 6-16 ATS slide after three consecutive covers as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in its last six road games following three or more consecutive home games. Northwestern lost by one point to DePaul last game, but it is 8-0 ATS after a loss of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 74.1 to 62.9 in this spot. Wisconsin buried Northwestern by 28 when it visited last season, and the Wildcats haven't forgotten. Take the points as Northwestern gives Wisconsin a game.

7* Bowl Game of the Year on Iowa +8
The Key: Iowa's bowl preparation has been outstanding under coack Kirk Ferentz. Iowa has won 5 of its last 8 bowl games, including 3 of its last 4, and has lost by more than 7 points just once during this span, creating a 7-1 trend in our favor. Iowa is 4-1 versus current SEC schools during this stretch with the lone loss coming by just 7 points, creating a 5-0 tightener in our favor. The Hawkeyes are one of the best defensive teams in the country behind a linebacking trio that might be the best in the nation. Iowa ranks 7th nationally in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. It should have success slowing down an LSU offense that is minus star QB Zach Mettenberger. LSU has posted some good offensive numbers, but Iowa is 13-3 ATS all-time under coach Ferentz versus teams that average 37.0 points per game or more. Take the points.

6* Capital One Bowl Annihilator on Wisconsin -1
The Key: In a non-conference matchup between teams from BCS conferences, you want to fade excellent offensive teams like South Carolina that average 34.0 ppg or more if they are matched up against an excellent defensive team like Wisconsin that allows 16.0 ppg or less. Doing so has produced a 33-12 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 6-0 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 450 yards per game or more over the last 2 seasons. Also, teams headed up by coach Gary Andersen are 7-0 ATS all-time when they check in with 3 wins in their last 4 games. Lay the point.

6* Gator Bowl *CA$H COW* on Nebraska +9
The Key: Properly accessing motivation is a big part of handicapping this time of year, and Nebraska will no doubt be the more motivated team. The Cornhuskers will be motivated by an opportunity to avenge last season's bowl loss to Georgia while the Bulldogs will have a tougher time getting up for the same opponent in back-to-back bowls. Georgia won last year's bowl meeting 45-31, but the game was closer than the final score looks. The Huskers led by 8 points in the second half before Aaron Murray took over. Murray and the passing attack was ultimately the difference, but the Huskers won't face Murray this time around because he is out with a knee injury. The Huskers are 23-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1992. Take the points.

6* NBA Blowout on Rockets -9.5
The Key: As if Houston's 117-86 loss in Oklahoma City isn't enough motivation, it was defeated 106-91 in Sacramento earlier this month. Expect a big bounce back from the Rockets here. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. They have bounced back from each of their last 3 defeats with wins of 15, 17 and 13 points. They are also 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 home games versus the Kings, winning these by an average of 14.0 points. Lay the number.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +18.5
The Key: Off a big win over Villanova, Syracuse won't give its full attention to an Eastern Michigan team it defeated 84-48 last season. Eastern Mich brings back almost everyone from last year's team, and it will be out for revenge. Syracuse is on a 36-55 ATS slide in home games after a win of 15 points or more. Plus, you want to fade undefeated favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive wins as doing so has produced a 67-36 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Eagles are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take the points.

7* Sun Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech +7.5
The Key: Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer almost always has his team playing its best football at the end of the season. VA Tech has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 10 of its last 11 bowl games, and I'm not hesitating to get behind this sweet 10-1 trend. In addition, you want to back teams like Virginia Tech that average 100-140.0 rushing yards per game when they are up against a team that allows 140-190.0 rushing yards per game, provided they are 7 games or more into the schedule and are a team from a BCS conference playing another team from a BCS league. Doing so has produced a 44-16 ATS mark since 1992. It is also worth noting that UCLA is on a 6-17 ATS slide in road/neutral field contests when playing with a week or more of rest. The Bruins are also on a 3-12 ATS skid when playing away from home following an upset win over a conference opponent. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +2.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Miami, which will be playing its 4th road game in 6 days and is coming off a very emotional win in Portland. Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade came through for the Heat against the Trail Blazers with LeBron James sitting out, but I don't see them having enough legs left here in high-altitude Denver with James unlikely to go again. Denver has lost six straight so it will be lacking no motivation. The Nuggets are 10-1 in their last 11 home games versus the Heat, and I believe their home-court will hold up. Take the Nuggets.

6* Alamo Bowl *CA$H COW* on Texas +14.5
The Key: I expect an inspired performance from Texas as it looks to send Mack Brown out in style. The Longhorns lost to Baylor in their last game, but they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS under coach Brown when playing away from home following a double-digit defeat to a conference opponent. Texas is also 6-0 ATS when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 33.8 to 15.7 in these games. The Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall as they continue to be overvalued. They gave up 545 total yards, 231 on the ground, to Oregon State last game. These numbers are significant because the Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Neither team wanted to end up in the Alamo Bowl, but Texas clearly has more to play for as it tries to send Brown out a winner. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Cowboys +7
The Key: You want to back home underdogs or pickems in the last two weeks of the regular season that have been beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. Doing so has produced a 41-17 ATS mark since 1983. The value clearly with Dallas, and I'm not afraid to get behind Kyle Orton catching this many points. He has a 35-34 record in nine NFL seasons and far more big-game experienced than Nick Foles. Plus, Philadelphia isn't nearly as familiar with Orton so preparing for him presents a challenge. Also, the loss of Romo encourages Dallas to run the football more, and it has had success when running the ball effectively. We here plenty about how bad the Dallas defense is, but it held the Eagles to just 3 points earlier this season. Plus, Philly's defense is nearly as bad. Take the points as Dallas takes the Eagles down to the wire.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavs +6.5
The Key: The Cavs are being undervalued at home where they have been extremely competitive. They are 8-6 at home on the season, and three of their losses have come by fewer than 6.5 points, which means they have won or lost by less than 6.5 points in 11 of 14 home games this season. That's a sweet 11-3 trend in our favor. The Cavs beat the Clippers by six points in one of their home games and played the Trail Blazers to a three-point contest in another, which proves they have what it takes to hang with the best of the West in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus Western Conference opponents. Take the points.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Raiders +13
The Key: The odds are stacked against the Broncos this week. Consider that fading favorites that check in off a win of 14 points or more and are matched up against an opponent that's off back-to-back double-digit losses has produced a 27-9 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have won on average but only by 3.1 points. The Broncos secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win, but they are extremely banged-up right now, and they will be facing an Oakland team that will be treating this game as its Super Bowl. The Denver defense leaves plenty to be desired, and it took a big hit with a season-ending injury to Von Miller. Oakland keeps this one closer than the odds makers think. Take the points.

6* NFL Early Annihilator on Jaguars +11
The Key: Off a big win in Kansas City, the Colts will have a tough time getting up for a Jacksonville team they defeated 37-3 in the season's first meeting. The Jaguars will have no problem getting up for this game as they look for revenge and to finish the season on a positive note. This isn't the same Jacksonville team that was blown out in the first meeting, and this isn't the same Colts squad either. Indy has won its last two impressively following a very inconsistent stretch where it was blown out three times, but the wins came against a down-and-out Houston team and a Kansas City team I don't think is as good as its record leads you to believe. The Jaguars have been very undervalued on the road and are 4-0 ATS in the last four road games as a result, winning the last three straight up. The Jaguars have also been competitive in division play, going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four versus the AFC South. The Jags are 16-5 ATS all-time in road games where out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 28 points or more. They are 13-3 ATS all-time in road games when out for revenge for a same-season loss. You also want to fade home favorites of 10.5 or more points if they have covered the spread in two of their last three games and are a good team (.600-.750 win percentage) playing a poor team (.250-.400 win percentage). Doing so has produced a 33-10 ATS mark since 1983. This system tightens up to 6-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bucks +7.5
The Key: Minnesota rolled at home last night against Washington, and that victory puts it in a poor spot tonight. The Timberwolves are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win and 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 games following a win of more than 10 points. It is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Minnesota shouldn't be laying this many points on the road where it is just 5-11 this season. Plus, the Bucks have won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 10 of their last 11 home meetings against Minnesota. We'll get behind this sweet 10-1 trend. Take the points.

7* Russell Athletic Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3.5
The Key: Louisville is 11-1 but benefited from playing a very soft schedule. Miami was tested much more in the ACC and no doubt has what it takes to pull off this upset. Louisville's offensive and defensive numbers look good but were bolstered by its weak schedule. Besides, teams headed up by coach Al Golden have been up for the challenge against stiff competition. The Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS under Golden versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards per play or more. Golden's Miami teams are also 9-2 ATS versus teams with good rushing defenses that limit opponents to 120 rushing yards per game or fewer. In addition, teams headed up by Golden are 8-0 ATS all-time after leading their previous game by 17 points or more at the half. They have won by an average score of 30.5 to 15.3 in this situation. His squads are also 8-0 ATS all-time after scoring 24 points or more in the first half of their last game, winning by an average score of 35.1 to 13.6 in this spot. Miami finished the season strong following a rough three-game stretch, and the momentum it created will give it a ton of confidence here. Also, this is Miami's first bowl game following a two-year ban so the players that have been around will be very excited for this game. Louisville had hopes of going undefeated and playing in the BCS National Championship game. At the very least, it expected to be playing in a BCS bowl like it did last season when it defeated Florida in the Sugar Bowl. The Cardinals will have a tough time summoning the type of motivation for this game that they did for last season's bowl contest. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Hofstra +9.5
The Key: Hofstra will be lacking no motivation this afternoon as it goes up against a George Washington squad it lost to by 24 points last season. Because the Colonials rolled over the Pride so easily last season, they will be looking ahead to Tuesday's New Year's Eve showdown at Kansas State. George Washington has been an ugly investment in non-conference action at 18-40-2 ATS in its last 60 non-conference games. The Colonials are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 versus Colonial Athletic Association foes. The Pride, on the other hand, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. They are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points as Hofstra keeps this one within the number.

7* Fight Hunger Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU +3.5
The Key: The BYU Cougars have been a tremendous investment this time of year. They have won six of eight bowl appearances under Mendenhall and are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four. The Cougars are also 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games. BYU has been a phenomenal underdog recently because of how solid it is defensively. The Cougars have given up just 21.3 ppg this season and are an outstanding 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons, winning these games outright by an average of 4.8 points. The Huskies are dealing with the loss of Steve Sarkisian, which doesn't help their cause. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +3.5
The Key: The Pistons check in off a 115-92 win at Cleveland. However, you want to fade road favorites off a double-digit road win if they have a losing record on the season. Doing so has produced a 50-26 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Pistons start a home-and-home with Washington tomorrow and will be more concerned about the Wizards. The Magic, on the other hand, will be focused on the task at hand following three consecutive defeats at home. The Magic have been very competitive against the Pistons, winning or losing by less than 3.5 points in four of their last five meetings, including all three at home during this stretch. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavs +3
The Key: The Cavs have been very competitive at home where they are 8-5 on the season. A 115-92 home loss to Detroit in their last game can't be sitting well. Neither can a 108-89 loss in Atlanta in the season's first meeting. Motivated by the loss to Detroit and further fueled by the loss to Atlanta, Cleveland will take care of business at home against the Hawks, who are just 4-9 on the road. Underdogs off an upset loss of 10 points or more that are up against an opponent off a road cover in a game they lost straight up are 2-0 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons, 11-2 ATS the last 5 seasons and 30-8 ATS since 1996. In addition, home teams that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more and check in off an upset loss of 15 points or more are 64-31 ATS since 1996. Take the Cavs.

7* Pizza Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Pitt +5
The Key: Bowling Green enters off a satisfying win over Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game, but that win came under Dave Clawson, who has left to take the job at Wake Forest. Clawson's absence will be felt here. While the win over Northern Illinois looks impressive, there is reason to believe the Falcons are a fraud. They were blown out by an Indiana team that finished 5-7 and fell to a Mississippi State team that finished 6-6. Pitt showed what it is capable of with impressive wins over Duke and Notre Dame, and it will be very motivated here with an opportunity to notch its first winning season since 2010. The Panthers have been phenomenal in bounce-back spots at 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Warriors -2
The Key: This game is about revenge for the Warriors, who lost the season's first meeting on the road. The home team has had the edge of late, going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with an average winning margin of 16.3 points. The Clippers are also just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings at Golden State. The Clippers have an even bigger game the 26th in Portland so they could be looking ahead here. Golden State is 9-1 ATS in home games when the total is between 205.0 and 209.5 points since the beginning of last season. It has won these contests by an average score of 110.3 to 99.2. You want to fade road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced an 18-2 ATS mark the last three seasons. Lay the points.

6* Hawaii Bowl *CA$H COW* on Oregon State -3
The Key: Oregon State has lost five in a row, but those losses came against Stanford, USC, Arizona State, Washington and Oregon. There's no shame in losing to these schools. I expect the Beavers to end their skid against a Boise State team that is dealing with the loss of its head coach. The Broncos struggle against the pass, and that doesn't bode well for them here. Oregon State is on an 11-1 ATS run in road/neutral field games versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 62% or higher. The Beavers were gashed for 568 yards at Oregon in their last game, and they still managed to play the Ducks to a one-point contest. Don't expect the defense to be as poor this time around. Oregon State is on a 7-0 ATS run after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. It has won by an average score of 30.7 to 21.7 in this situation. Under coach Mike Riley, Oregon State is 27-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3, 17-8 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of preparation time and 19-9 ATS after two or more consecutive losses. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -1
The Key: As if a three-game losing streak isn't enough motivation, the Nuggets will be fueled even more so by the fact Golden State sent them home in last season's playoffs. Look for Denver to have its revenge at home, where it is 18-3 in the last 21 meetings with Golden State. The Warriors have a big Christmas game against the Clippers, and that's a revenge game so I believe they'll be looking ahead. The Warriors handled the Lakers last time out, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Take Denver.

6* MNF *CA$H COW* on Falcons +14.5
The Key: Odds makers have overvalued the 49ers as they go after a big payday by preying on the public's desire to back a San Francisco team playing its last game at Candlestick with an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot. While there's a good chance the 49ers get it done, I don't see this one being a blowout. You might recall that San Francisco prevented the Falcons from making a trip to the Super Bowl last season. Atlanta hasn't forgotten, and it would love to play a role in spoiling San Fran's playoff hopes. You want to fade home favorites of 10.5 or more points that have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a team with a win percentage of .250 to .400. Doing so has produced a 32-10 ATS mark the last 30 years. Teams fitting this situation have been favored by 13.3 points on average but have won by only 9.2 points. This system is a near-perfect 5-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *TOP DOG* on Nets +7
The Key: Indiana will come into this game overconfident following back-to-back blowout victories and knowing Brook Lopez is out. The Nets will be the more motivated team following back-to-back defeats and a 5-point loss to the Pacers in the first meeting. They will also be the fresher side as they have had two days off while Indiana played last night. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest while the Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Pacers are also on a dismal 4-15 ATS skid in road games after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. They have lost by an average score of 99.3 to 92.9 in this situation. Take the points.

6* Beef '0' Brady's Bowl *CA$H COW* on Ohio +15
The Key: East Carolina is 0-8 ATS against teams that have a winning record over the last three seasons. It is 0-7 ATS after playing 3 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. It is also 0-6 ATS off 3 or more consecutive overs under coach McNeill. Ohio has been very good in bowl games under Solich. It upset UL Monroe 45-14 last year and upset Utah State the year before. East Carolina has lost four straight bowl games, falling 43-34 to Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl last December. This season Ohio defeated a Marshall team that blew out East Carolina. I don't think the Bobcats are getting the respect they deserve from odds makers. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +12.5
The Key: Off back-to-back defeats and out to avenge a 97-82 loss to Indiana in the season's first meeting, Boston will be lacking no motivation when it takes the floor this evening. The Pacers are off a 114-81 win over Houston, but you want to fade favorites of 10 points or more if they held their last opponent to 85 points or less. Doing so has produced a 409-294 ATS mark since 1996. This system is 53-31 ATS the last 3 seasons and 7-4 ATS this season. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Celtics are 3-0 ATS this season as underdogs of 12 points or more while the Pacers are 1-3 ATS as a favorite of 12 points or more this season. Take the points.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Patriots +2.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Baltimore, playing on a short week following an emotional victory in Detroit Monday night. Baltimore was beat, but Justin Tucker connected on a 61-yard field goal to save the day. After such a high, I believe a letdown is inevitable. The Ravens are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Patriots just don't lose consecutive games. They are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. Tom Brady and company weren't at all pleased with last week's loss in Miami, and they'll be very focused here. They also aren't pleased with the fact they've lost two straight to Baltimore so motivation won't be an issue. The Patriots are an awesome 41-21 ATS when catching points under coach Bill Belichick. They are an insane 19-6 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season under Belichick and 10-2 ATS in road games following a road loss under their future Hall of Fame coach. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, which means the road team is also 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Patriots.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Buccaneers +6
The Key: This is a letdown spot for St. Louis, which is coming off a big upset victory over the Saints. The Rams won't be going to the postseason so they treated that game like their Super Bowl. They will have a much tougher time getting up for the lowly Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has come on strong following a 0-8 start, winning four of its last six games. It clearly hasn't quit on the season. The Bucs are better than their record leads you to believe as well. They have four losses of three points or less with three of these losses coming to the Saints, Cardinals and Seahawks (road). Taking the Seahawks down to the wire on the road is no easy task. The Rams came into Tampa and won last season so this game will also be about revenge for the Bucs. Teams headed up by coach Jeff Fisher are typically run-first teams that play a more conservative brand of football. So, not surprisingly, his teams are just 14-33 ATS all-time at home as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Run-heavy teams typically don't win many games going away. The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 14 points. The Rams are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus NFC foes. The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

6* New Orleans Bowl *CA$H COW* on UL-Lafayette +2.5
The Key: UL-Lafayette is the superior team. It beat Tulane by 28 points in last season's matchup and could very well smoke the Green Wave again. Tulane had no answer for ULL's running attack in last season's meeting, giving up 294 rushing yards. It's defensive numbers show that it is good against the run this season, but I'm here to tell you it will have trouble slowing down the Ragin' Cajuns' 25th-ranked rushing attack. The Green Wave are 7-5 but were very fortunate to end up with a winning record. They relied heavily on takeaways because they stunk offensively. They rank 118th in the nation in total offense. That doesn't bode well for them if they fall behind early. It also doesn't bode well for them that ULL has committed 2 turnovers or less in 10 of 12 games this season. It only committed 1 turnover in 7 of these games. Tulane is on a 3-15 ATS skid versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 yards per play or more. ULL is 12-4 ATS as an underdog under coach Mark Hudspeth. It is also a perfect 7-0 ATS under Hudspeth when playing away from home versus a team that has a winning record. It won these contests by 4.7 points on average. Take the points.

6* National TV Annihilator (ESPNU) on New Mexico +2.5
The Key: Marquette checks in off back-to-back blowout wins over IUPUI and Ball State. However, it is 0-6 ATS after 2 straight wins of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 7.0 points in this spot. New Mexico got kicked by Kansas and followed up that game with an apathetic performance at home against a New Mexico State team it had already defeated by nine on the road. Rest assured, a bounce-back is coming from this experienced New Mexico squad, and I believe it happens right here. The Lobos are 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 18.3 points in this spot. It is also worth noting that New Mexico is 8-1 ATS in games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Jazz +4.5
The Key: Motivated by last night's embarrassing loss in Atlanta, the Jazz will take their frustrations out on a Charlotte team they have owned. Utah is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, winning them by 11.0 points on average. The Bobcats used a lot of energy in last night's comeback win in Detroit while the Jazz didn't have a single player over 30 minutes in a game that was over early. This is also Charlotte's 4th game in 5 days while it is Utah's 4th game in 7 days so the Jazz should be the fresher team. The Bobcats are 14-31 ATS in their last 45 games when playing without a day of rest. Charlotte is improved, but it has also benefited from playing in the weak Eastern Conference. It has really struggled against the West, going 15-37-1 ATS in its last 53 non-conference contests. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Non-Conference Blowout Game of the Year on Virginia -10.5
The Key: Back home, motivated by back-to-back upset defeats and having had two weeks to prepare, expect Virginia to give Northern Iowa a beating. The Panthers pulled off an upset of VCU in their last game but are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. That win came at home. Things haven't gone as smoothly for Northern Iowa on the road where it is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four. The Cavaliers are a perfect 7-0 ATS all-time at home when laying 9.5 to 12.0 points under coach Tony Bennett. They have won these contests by an average of 24.0 points. Lay the number.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Kings +11
The Key: The Heat won't give Sacramento their full attention following a big come from behind win over the Pacers. Expect Miami to just go through the motions here. You want to fade Friday night home favorites of 10 or more points that check in off a home win as doing so has produced a 44-18 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to 32-11 ATS if the team we are fading checks in off 3 or more consecutive wins. You also want to back Friday night road underdogs of 10 or more points that check in off a double-digit road loss as doing so has produced a 38-13 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. The Heat are just 32-49 ATS when laying double-digits under Spoelstra. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage less than .400. The Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on Georgia State -12.5
The Key: This game is all about revenge for Georgia State, which returns four starters from a team that was upset at Georgia Southern last season. Home court has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings. Georgia State won both of its home games during this stretch by 20 points. The Eagles haven't been a good investment on the road where they are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four versus teams with a winning home record. Georgia Southern was fantastic defensively Wednesday, holding Kennesaw State to 55 points in a blowout win. However, the Eagles are 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 55 points or less over the last three seasons, losing by an average of 19.7 points in this spot. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Line Mistake on Texas State +15
The Key: This line is an overreaction to Utah's blowout win over BYU and Texas State's lopsided loss to Texas. Texas State returns four starters from a team that lost to Utah by only 5 points last season despite shooting a pathetic 36.9% and allowing the Utes to shoot 53.1%. The Bobcats stayed in that game by dominating the offensive glass, and that's something they are very capable of doing again here. Texas State is on a 13-3 ATS run in road games after a loss by 10 points or more. Also, you want to fade December favorites of 10 or more points if they have a shooting percentage of 52% or higher on the season. Doing so has produced a 30-11 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls +13.5
The Key: The Bulls were thumped in Houston last night, but I expect them to respond. This veteran team has a lot of pride and hasn't forgotten that it was crushed by 30 points the last time in visited Oklahoma City. It knows it needs to show up or it will be embarrassed again. The haunting memory of that defeat provides ample motivation. The Thunder are off a big win in Denver, and they have a big game in San Antonio on deck so they won't give this struggling Chicago team their full attention. The time to start fading this hot OKC squad is now as it is just 13-28 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins under coach Brooks. The Thunder are also only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. You want to fade favorites of 10 or more points after 6 or more consecutive wins if they have a winning record on the season and are playing a losing team. Doing so has produced a 46-18 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. You also want to back underdogs of 10 or more points that have been beaten by a total of 18 points or more ATS in their last 3 games if they have a win percentage of 25-40% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 44-17 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Auburn +6.5
The Key: Fueled by back-to-back ugly losses to Iowa State and Illinois, Auburn will respond tonight. The Auburn Tigers are on a 13-3 ATS run following 2 straight double-digit losses. Teams headed up by Clemson coach Brad Brownell are a dismal 1-9 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. It's tough enough to win on the road in college basketball, and Brownell's half-court offense isn't conducive to big wins on the road. Clemson has been outstanding defensively, but Auburn has been good offensively at home. It should dominate the free throw battle as it averages 23 made free throws at home while Clemson only takes an average of 18. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Pelicans +10.5
The Key: The Pelicans by 11 at Golden State last night. However, you want to back road underdogs of 10 points or more if they have a losing record and check in off a road loss of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 100-58 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, the Pelicans are an impressive 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Clippers are coming off a big double-digit upset win over the Spurs. But, teams headed up by Doc Rivers are just 4-15 ATS in home games following an upset victory of 10 points or more. The Pelicans are 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +3.5
The Key: The Jazz see this game as an excellent opportunity to get back in the win column, and they'll go after it with all they've got. While its record would lead you to believe otherwise, Utah is a better team than the Magic. It has been hurt by playing in the superior Western Conference. The Jazz are just 2-6 in their last 8 games, but five of their losses during this stretch came to Indiana, Portland (twice), San Antonio and Miami. The Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. They are also 2-15 ATS when laying points under coach Vaughn. The Jazz are 5-0 in their last five games against the Magic. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *Upset Alert* on Ohio +3.5
The Key: Ohio has been flat out awesome at home, going 44-3 in its last 47 home games, including 7-0 in its last seven. The three defeats during this stretch came in OT, by 1 point and 3 points. The Bobcats are on a 16-5 ATS run as a home underdog of 6 points or less, winning by an average score of 71.2 to 67.6 in this spot. The Bobcats are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games and 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Look for Ohio to hand UMass its first defeat of the season.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State +1.5
The Key: I expect Arkansas State to hand Toledo its first loss here. The Red Wolves have been unbeatable of late at home where they are on a 9-0 run. They are 20-2 at home dating back to 2011-12 season. Arkansas State is coming off a loss at Nebraska, but it is 23-12 ATS in home games after playing a road contest under coach John Brady. It is also 13-5 ATS under Brady in home games against poor defensive teams like Toledo that allow opponents to shoot 45% or higher from the field. Take Arkansas State.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavaliers +5
The Key: The Cavs aren't getting the respect they deserve at home where they have won four straight and are 7-3 on the season. They defeated the Clippers 88-82 Dec. 7 so they have shown they can take care of business against elite competition in Cleveland. The Cavs will be the fresher team tonight as they have had two days of rest while the Trail Blazers will be playing their third road game in four days, and they were pushed to overtime in their last game. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. The Trail Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Lions -6.5
The Key: Baltimore hasn't lost by more than 6 points since a 49-27 season-opening defeat in Denver, yet it is catching 6.5 points? Clearly odds makers don't think the Ravens, who rank 29th in total offense, can keep pace with a Detroit team that ranks 3rd in total offense while averaging nearly 100 more yards per game than the Ravens. I completely agree. The Detroit offense struggled last week without Reggie Bush in the snow, but that does well for us here as the Lions are 14-3 ATS after being outgained by 200 yards or more since 1992. The key to Detroit covering this number is not turning it over. The Lions have struggled with turnovers lately but should be able to do a better job of taking care of the football against a Baltimore team that hasn't come up with many takeaways. The Ravens have been almost been a dead fade late in the season at 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in December. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks -5
The Key: The Hawks went down at the Knicks last game, but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season following a road loss. Look for this trend to continue against an L.A. squad that's really hurting in the backcourt. With Steve Nash, Jordan Farmar and Steve Blake all out with injuries, Kobe Bryant has been forced to play bigger minutes sooner than the Lakers would have liked. He's also been forced to handle the ball a lot more, which hasn't been a good thing since he's showing rust with 25 turnovers. Look for the Hawks to pressure Bryant to wear him out and force him into miscues. The Lakers are 11-22 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons and 16-30 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and the Lakers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Lay the points.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Month on Steelers +3
The Key: Cincinnati has not been the same dominant force on the road. In fact, it has won by more than three points just once in its last nine road games. It's been a very disappointing season for the Steelers, but they're not about to roll over for anybody, especially at home against a division rival. The Steelers lost the season's first meeting at Cincinnati. However, home teams that are out for revenge and are also coming off an upset defeat are 165-103 ATS since 1983. Zooming in, this system is 29-14 ATS the last five seasons. In addition, you want to fade road favorites that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team that has a losing record. Doing so has produced a 60-29 ATS mark since 1983. Pittsburgh is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with one of these losses coming by only three points. Take the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Kings +6.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by two straight losses to Houston, the Kings will be ready to roll when they hit the floor Sunday evening. Houston will be fatigued as this will be its third road game in four days. The Kings should be the fresher side as they have had a day off in between each of their last four games. Prior to an ugly performance against Utah in their last home game, the Kings had won or lost by fewer than 6.5 points in six straight at home. This stretch included games against the Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Thunder, Lakers and Mavs. The Rockets are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games versus a team with a losing home record while the Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

6* Late Afternoon Annihilator on Raiders +5.5
The Key: The Raiders will be out for revenge at home after losing the first meeting 24-7 in Kansas City. That was a rare divisional win for the Chiefs, who are just 1-9 in their last 10 against AFC West foes. The Raiders are 3-1 in their last 4 against the Chiefs and have won or lost by fewer than 5.5 points in 11 of the last 16 meetings. Oakland has been a terrific investment in bounce-back spots at 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS loss. Also, you want to fade road teams after a win of 21 points or more if they're matched up against an opponent that was held to 3 points or less in the first half last game. Doing so has produced a 35-11 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. It is also worth mentioning that the underdog is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Take the points.

6* NFL Early Annihilator on Bills pk
The Key: Jacksonville has won three in a row and four of five, but two of these wins came against a Houston team that has lost 11 straight and the other two came against a Cleveland team that's on a 1-7 slide and a Tennessee team on a 2-7 slide. Buffalo is a better team than its record shows. It has wins over the Panthers, Ravens, Dolphins and Jets and has narrow losses to New England and Cincinnati. The numbers show Buffalo to be superior as well. The Bills rank No. 15 in total defense while the Jaguars rank No. 29. Offensively, the Bills rank No. 23 while the Jags rank dead last. Buffalo enters Week 15 with the 5th-best rushing attack in the league, and it should do a number on a Jacksonville defense that is among the worst in the NFL against the run. You want to fade home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that have been outscored by an average of 10.0 points or more per game. Doing so has produced a 30-7 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system is 16-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take Buffalo.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on South Dakota State +5
The Key: This game is all about revenge for the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, who were embarrassed at Belmont in last year's meeting. I expect a much different result with South Dakota State playing host as it is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. It is also 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 6-0 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons. Belmont comes into this one overconfident following a big upset win at Middle Tennessee State. Plus, I expect it to show some rust having not played since Dec. 3. The Bruins are 6-18 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons and 9-19 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more under coach Byrd. Take South Dakota State.

6* NCAAB National TV Annihilator (ESPN) on Notre Dame +5
The Key: Expect Notre Dame to respond following an ugly upset loss at home to North Dakota State. The Fighting Irish are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after playing 3 consecutive games as a home favorite. The Hoosiers check in off a blowout win over Oakland, but they are just 2-9 ATS when playing away from home under coach Crean after a blowout win of 20 points or more. They are only 10-19 ATS under Crean in road/neutral floor games versus non-conference opponents. Take the points.

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Army +13
The Key: I like Army to keep this one within the number behind the nation's second-best rushing attack. Army racked up 370 rushing yards against Navy last season while playing the Midshipmen to a four-point game. You want to take excellent rushing teams like Army that average 4.8 yards or more per carry when they're up against an opponent that allows 4.3-4.8 yards per carry if they allowed 275 rushing yards or more last game. Doing so has produced a 44-15 ATS mark since 1992. You also want to fade favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Navy that average 230.0 rushing yards or more per game and averaged 5.5 yards or more per carry last game when they're matched up with an opponent that gives up 190.0-230.0 rushing yards per game. Doing so has produced a 35-13 ATS mark since 1992. In addition, Navy is 0-6 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 10.7 points in these contests. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons -5.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Brooklyn as it goes on the road following last night's big win over the Clippers. That was a statement game for a Nets squad that has been a disappointment to this point, and the big win sets Brooklyn up for a letdown. The Nets lost the season's first meeting with Detroit 109-97 at home, but it's not like that loss has been eating away at them. Brooklyn feels like it is the superior team and won't draw any added motivation from the earlier defeat in this spot. The Pistons, on the other hand, will be extremely motivated because they have lost three in a row. They should also be a little more rested having had last night off. You want to fade underdogs that are out for revenge for a double-digit home loss to an opponent if that foe checks in off a road defeat. Doing so has produced an 88-46 ATS mark the last five seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have lost by an average of 11.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Pistons are on an 8-0 ATS run versus Atlantic division opponents. Lay the points.

6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Chargers +10.5
The Key: The Chargers aren't getting the respect they deserve here. They have won or lost by fewer than 10.5 points in 15 straight and 22 of 23 games. The Chargers have also performed well in Denver where they are 5-3 in the last eight meetings with the losses coming by only 3, 1, and 7 points. The Chargers are 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 5-0-4 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Denver. Also, the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. This game means way more to a San Diego team that is hanging on to postseason hopes by the skin of its teeth. Denver's focus right now is getting healthy. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Denver +8.5
The Key: You want to fade home teams that return one of no starters when they check in off a blowout win of 30 points or more. Doing so has produced a 29-10 ATS mark the last five seasons. You also want to back road underdogs or pickems that return two starters in the first 10 games after a game where they were held to 25 points or less in the first half. Doing so has produced a 106-56 ATS mark the last five seasons. Denver will be lacking no motivation as it looks to snap a 4-game losing streak in the series. The Pioneers have won or lost by fewer than 8.5 points in 7 of the last 8 meetings, including 3 straight at Colorado State. The Rams are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +6.5
The Key: The Celtics needed no added motivated for this game as they will be facing their old coach, but they got it with last night's loss in Brooklyn. Expect to see a very charged-up Boston squad tonight. The Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. Plus, the Clippers could actually be more fatigued as they will be playing their 5th road game in 8 days with a short bench. The Celtics are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. They are also on a 15-3 ATS run at home versus poor defensive teams that allow 99+ points/game. The Clippers have struggled on the road where they are just 6-6 and have won by more than 6 points only 3 times. Boston has won its last 3 at home, and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Magic +6.5
The Key: The books are giving Charlotte a little too much respect tonight. The Magic see this game as a chance to end their six-game skid, and they'll go after it with all they've got. Orlando will be further fueled by losses in its last three games against Charlotte. Two of those defeats came by fewer than 6.5 points. In fact, Orlando has won or lost by less than 6.5 points in 25 of the last 28 meetings. That's a 25-3 trend I'll gladly get behind. The Bobcats upset the Warriors last time out and are just 5-17 ATS following an upset win since the start of last season. They also have a big game at Indiana up next so they could easily be looking ahead. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN2) on West Virginia +3
The Key: This is a game West Virginia had circled prior to the season. The Mountaineers will be out for blood tonight as they are fueled by the memory of last season's 84-50 loss to Gonzaga. Now is the time to fade the Bulldogs. They are 2-9 ATS after 3 straight wins of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and 4-13 ATS in road games after 2 straight wins of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. West Virginia has performed well at home where it is 5-0 this season. It is also more battle-tested than Gonzaga, having played a tougher schedule thus far with games against Wisconsin and Missouri. The Mountaineers have had more time to prepare for this contest as well. Take the points as WVU has an excellent opportunity to win this one outright.

6* MNF *CA$H COW* on Bears +1.5
The Key: The Bears have won four of six at Soldier Field, and I expect them to continue their solid play at home in a game they absolutely must have. The Cowboys have dropped four of six on the road, and their league-worst defense figures to be up against it tonight. The Bears are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league, and that doesn't bode well for Dallas, which is 0-7 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons versus teams that average 375.0 yards per game or more. It has lost to these teams by an average of 12.2 points. The Bears have had defensive struggles of their own, but the stop unit has performed considerably better at home. Plus, Dallas hasn't been able to take advantage. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. They have lost to these teams by an average of 6.6 points. It is also worth noting that the Cowboys are a dismal 1-7 ATS in their last eight Monday nighters. Bet the Bears.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards +2
The Key: This is an extremely tough spot for Denver, which will be playing its sixth road game in nine days. I expect the Nuggets to be feeling the effects of this gruesome stretch. To make matters worse, there's a good chance they'll be without Ty Lawson, who is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury. The Wizards have had two days of rest and will be playing for just the third time this month. All of these games have been at home so they haven't had to endure the extra fatigue that comes with travel. While Nene is expected to miss, I don't think it will matter as John Wall should have a big game without Lawson tiring him out on the defensive end. The Wizards are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The Wizards are also 3-0 ATS in their last three versus Denver, winning the last two outright as an underdog.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Raptors +6
The Key: Toronto doesn't help itself by getting many points off turnovers as it averages just 7 steals per game. However, it should still be able to keep this one within the number given how much the Lakers are being overvalued here. Odds makers overvalue a very public L.A. team at home constantly. As a result, the Lakers are 0-8 ATS in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game under D'Antoni. This trend also indicates that teams that don't gamble a lot defensively have had a lot of success defending the Lakers. Toronto has been very competitive with L.A. lately, winning or losing by fewer than 6 points in 6 of the last 7 meetings. 4 of these games were decided by 2 points or less. Kobe Bryant is expected to make his debut although it is uncertain how many minutes he will play. Initially, I expect his presence on the court to throw a hitch in the Lakers' giddy-up as they have been used to playing without him, and the ball tends to stop when it hits his hands, disrupting the flow of the offense. Take the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Saints -3
The Key: As if getting taken behind the woodshed Monday night isn't enough motivation, the Saints were swept by Carolina last season. Look for an extremely motivated New Orleans squad to bounce-back strong at home where it has been nearly unstoppable. The Saints are 6-0 at home on the season and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games. They are 17-4 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 ATS in home games following a road loss during this span, winning by an average score of 36.3 to 14.9 in this situation. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game, 7-0 ATS in home games after being held to 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on 49ers -2.5
The Key: The last two times the 49ers have played Seattle they have been completely and utterly embarrassed. Those losses are all the fuel the reigning NFC champs will need here. Those losses were both in Seattle. Things have gone much differently when these teams have met in San Francisco. The 49ers have won four straight at home in the series by an average of 13.8 points. In addition, San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 ATS under Harbaugh in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that carry a win percentage greater than 75%. The 49ers have defeated these teams by an average score of 29.1 to 20.4. There's nothing easy about playing on the road in a short week, especially when up against a team that is hungry to pay you back. Seattle took New Orleans apart, but the Seahawks are on a 5-18 ATS slide following a home blowout win of 21 points or more. Lay the points.

6* Sunday NFL Early Annihilator on Bengals -6
The Key: The Colts haven't been playing good football since beating Denver Oct. 20. They have played five games since and were blown out by St. Louis and Arizona and fortunate to win their other three games against Tennessee (twice) and Houston. I see another blowout loss coming as they go up against a Cincinnati team that has been tough as nails at home. The Bengals are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 home games, winning these by 14.7 points on average. Lay the points.

6* Pac-12 Championship *CA$H COW* on Arizona State -3
The Key: Arizona State lost 42-28 at Stanford clear back on Sept. 21, but I fully expect the Sun Devils to have their revenge at home where they are 8-0 in their last 8. Stanford hasn't been the same team outside Palo Alto. The Cardinal have lost two of their last three road games to Utah and USC, and the Sun Devils are superior to both of those teams. ASU is an impressive 18-7 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by 10.0 points or more per game since 1992. Also, teams headed up by coach Graham are 13-4 ATS all-time versus good teams that outscore opponents by 10.0 points or more per game. Graham has proven at all of his stops that the chances of beating him two straight times aren't good. In fact, his teams are 25-11 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent, winning these games by an average score of 35.3 to 30.6. This trend tightens up to 17-6 ATS if they allowed 35 points or more in the loss they are revenging. Lastly, the Sun Devils are 14-5 ATS when laying points under Graham. Lay the number.