6* Knicks/Cavs NBA on ESPN *CA$H COW* on New York +10.5

The Key: The New York Knicks have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They won 122-97 at Milwaukee as 4.5-point underdogs and 117-110 at Washington as 7-point dogs.  Their only two losses came at home against two of the best teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs.  So, they have played four playoff teams from last year, and they've handled themselves very well.  Cleveland is overvalued right now due to a 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  That was the case for the Cavaliers as they failed to cover as 13-point road favorites in a 7-point win at Philadelphia last time out, and it's the case again here tonight as double-digit favorites when they shouldn't be.  The Knicks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Cleveland.  Take New York.

7* Ohio/BG MAC Game of the Week on Ohio +20

The Key: The betting public loves backing high-scoring teams like the Bowling Green Falcons.  They have been rewarded this year as the Falcons have gone 6-2 straight up and 6-2 against the spread up to this point.  But now the oddsmakers have over-adjusted here in listing the Falcons as 20-point favorites over rival Ohio.  Adding to this adjustment is that Ohio has been blown out in its past two games against Western Michigan and Buffalo.  But the loss to Buffalo was far from the 17-41 final score as the Bobcats actually outgained the Bulls by 49 yards in the game, but shot themselves in the foot with four turnovers.  Ohio has played some good football on the road this year, winning 14-12 at Akron and only losing 24-27 at Minnesota.  The Bobcats still believe they can win the MAC, but it starts with an upset here of the Falcons.  Look for them to put their best foot forward in this rivalry game.  The Bobcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.  Take Ohio.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas Mavericks +1.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are 3-0 and overvalued as 1.5-point road favorites over the Dallas Mavericks as a result.  They have beaten three teams who are a combined 2-8 on the season.  Now they face a Dallas team that is getting healthy with Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons returning to the lineup.  The Mavs are 2-1 this season despite playing three tough road games already.  They are going to be amped up for their home opener tonight.  The Mavericks are 13-2 in their last 15 home meetings with the Raptors.  Take Dallas.

7* Northern Illinois/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7.5

The Key: Northern Illinois is the king of the MAC and isn't ready to let Toledo take its throne this year.  I like the 7.5 points we're getting here with how dominant the Huskies have been in this series.  They have gone 5-0 in their last five meetings with the Rockets.  They are 6-1 in the last seven meetings as well with their only loss coming by a single point.  Northern Illinois has three losses this year, but all three came by 10 points or less and all three on the road.  That includes a 13-20 loss at Ohio State in which they held the Buckeyes to less than 300 yards.  They have the better defense in this one.  Toledo is 7-0 but should have lost to both Arkansas and Iowa State.  It was outgianed by 197 yards by Arkansas and by 172 yards by Iowa State.  The Rockets also trailed 10-28 at UMass in their last game before coming back to win.   The Huskies are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games & 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Northern Illinois.

7* Colts/Panthers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis Colts +7

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts really need a victory as they are sitting at 3-4 and off two consecutive losses to the Saints and Patriots.  I expect them to put their best foot forward here against a Carolina team that is one of the most overvalued in the league.  Despite being 6-0, I believe the Panthers are just a middle-of-the-pack team, and I actually have the Colts rated higher than them.  So getting seven points here is a gift.  The Panthers have faced the league's easiest schedule to this point as they haven't beaten a team with a winning record.  They are only outgaining teams by 4.4 yards per game despite this easy schedule.  The only other time this season the Panthers were favored by more than a field goal, they failed to cover the spread in a 27-22 home win over the Saints as 10-point favorites.  Keep in mind that Drew Brees didn't play in that contest.  Ron Rivera is 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games as the coach of Carolina.  Take Indianapolis.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New York Knicks +8

The Key: The New York Knicks got better this offseason than most people think.  Just having a healthy Carmelo Anthony back has made a huge difference, but four new players are making big-time contributions en route to a 2-1 start.  Derrick Williams is averaging 13.3 points per game, Robin Lopez is averaging 11.3 points and 1.7 blocks, Kristaps Porzingis is putting up 11.3 points and 6.3 rebounds, and Kyle O'Quinn is averaging 9.3 points and 7.7 boards.  The Knicks beat the Bucks 122-97 on the road and the Wizards 117-110 on the road, which were two payoff teams last year.  They have had a day off since that win over the Wizards on Saturday.  The Spurs, meanwhile, will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here after beating the Celtics 95-87 Sunday.  The Spurs are obviously up there in age, so I'll be looking to go against them in these types of situations all year.  New York has actually won 4 of its last 6 meetings with San Antonio, including 3 of its last 4 home meetings.  The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take New York.

6* Royals/Mets Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +129

The Key: The Kansas City Royals have all the momentum now after erasing a 2-3 deficit in the 8th inning to win 5-3 in Game 4.  The Mets just took a sucker punch and won't be able to recover from it in time for Game 5 as they were on the verge of squaring the series 2-2.  The Royals are hungry to clinch the World Series now after losing it to the Giants in Game 7 last year.  They don't want this series to go back to KC.  Edinson Volquez lost his father on the same day he pitched Game 1, and he's going to be dedicating tonight's performance to his father.  The Royals players can't help but rally around him, and this just has the feeling that the Royals won't be denied tonight.  Volquez has pitched well in the postseason and is 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts against New York.  The Royals are 27-9 in their last 36 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Royals are 6-0 in Volquez's last 6 interleague starts.  Take Kansas City.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +7

The Key: The Bucks are 0-2 right now and desperate for their first victory of the season, while the Raptors are 2-0 and overvalued here as 7-point favorites as a result.  This Bucks team is better than they have shown through their first two games, and I look for them to prove it tonight.  When a game is expected to be high-scoring, the Bucks usually have success because their defense is so good.  The Bucks are 10-1 ATS in a road game when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons.  Meanwhile, Toronto is in a bad spot here.  The Raptors are 2-11 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  I'll gladly back both of these situations in what will likely be an outright win for the Bucks.  Take Milwaukee.

6* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas +5

The Key: This play falls into a system that is 101-67 (60.1%) ATS since the start of the 2003 season.  It is a contrarian system that tells us to bet on teams who have performed poorly against the spread.  It tells us to bet on teams with a 7-game ATS winning percentage of less than 15%.  The betting public tends to overreact to these teams and not want to bet them because they haven't won them many bets at all.  This game doesn't technically fit the system, but that's because the Cowboys have already had their bye week.  Teams with just one or fewer ATS wins in a six-game stretch are still 193-151 (56.1%) ATS in the seventh game.  It's a larger sample size and a proven winner long-term.  Dallas is 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS this season and most of the bets are coming in on Seattle, but most of the money is coming in on Dallas and moving this line down from 6 to 5 and 4.5 in some places.  This reverse line movement is a clear indication of sharp money on the Cowboys.  Seattle is just 45-57 ATS on the road compared to 64-41 ATS at home during that same stretch.  Jason Garrett is 22-12 ATS as an underdog, including 11-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Dallas also fits a system that is 63-34 ATS that focuses on playoff teams from last season when they're underdogs following a loss the next season.  Dallas racked up 460 total yards on the New York Giants last week and outgained them by 171, so it is not broken.  Plus, Dez Bryant is expected to make his much-awaited return this week, which only helps the Cowboys.  Take Dallas.

7* NFL *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Key: This play falls into a system that is 101-67 (60.1%) ATS since the start of the 2003 season.  It is a contrarian system that tells us to bet on teams who have performed poorly against the spread.  It tells us to bet on teams with a 7-game ATS winning percentage of less than 15%.  The betting public tends to overreact to these teams and not want to bet them because they haven't won them many bets at all.  The Ravens are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS, so they fit the system.  But the Ravens clearly aren't as bad as their record as all seven of their games have been decided by 8 points or less, so they have simply been unfortunate in close games.  I trust them more than the Chargers, who have lost three in a row coming in and trailed Oakland 37-6 at home last week.  Look for the Ravens to rally the troops at home this week.  They have only played two home games this year compared to five road games, including four trips to the West Coast, which is always difficult.  Their schedule lets up going forward, starting with this week's game against the Chargers.  John Harbaugh is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of his last 6 games as the coach of Baltimore.  Take Baltimore.

6* Lions/Chiefs Sunday *EARLY RISER* on Detroit +4

The Key: This play falls into a system that is 101-67 (60.1%) ATS since the start of the 2003 season.  It is a contrarian system that tells us to bet on teams who have performed poorly against the spread.  It tells us to bet on teams with a 7-game ATS winning percentage of less than 15%.  The betting public tends to overreact to these teams and not want to bet them because they haven't won them many bets at all.  The Lions are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS, so they fit the system.  They made some major changes to the coaching staff this week, and I look for those changes to start paying dividends in London against the Chiefs.  They fired their offensive coordinator and two offensive line coaches, and that's the type of bad news that I like to buy on.  The Chiefs are overvalued due to beating the Steelers and third-string QB Landry Jones last week.  They won the turnover battle 3-0, which aided their victory despite getting outgained 339-377 for the game.  Kansas City is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game.  Take Detroit.

6* Stanford/Washington State Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Stanford -10

The Key: Stanford has been a completely different team since a season-opening 6-16 loss at Northwestern.  It has gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and has clearly climbed back into the national title discussion.  All six wins came by 10 points or more, including five by 17-plus points.  That includes wins over USC, Arizona and UCLA.  This game with Washington State is for first place in the Pac-12 North, so the Cardinal will not be taking the Cougars lightly.  This is a Washington State team that lost 17-24 at home to Portland State in the opener.  It has rebounded nicely since, but it is also overvalued as a result.  The Cougars have a good offense, but now they'll be up against the conference's top defense.  Stanford leads the Pac-12 with 339.3 total yards allowed per game, and only 204.7 through the air.  The Cardinal are 7-0 in their last seven meetings with the Cougars with an average margin of victory of 26.6 points per game.  They have held Washington State to just 15.1 points per game while scoring 41.7 per contest themselves during this streak.  Their last three trips to Washington State have resulted in blowout wins by 38, 30 and 26 points.  Take Stanford.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

The Key: This is one of my favorite situations.  This is a home-and-home situation where the Blazers played in Phoenix last night and lost 92-110, but now they play for a second straight night, this time in Portland.  I look for the Blazers to have their revenge at home.  They won their home opener 112-94 over New Orleans behind 37 points from one of the most underrated players in the NBA in C.J. McCollum.  This Blazers roster is much better than it gets credit for despite the loss of four starters from last year.  They space the floor very well with 3-point shooters everywhere, which is perfect for today's NBA.  McCollum and Damian Lillard can both get to the rim at will and make plays for their shooters.  It's definitely the most underrated guard tandem in the league.  The Blazers only shot 19 free throws last night while the Suns shot 42.  The Blazers voiced their frustration over the officiating, and I look for them to get the calls at home tonight.  The home team is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Portland.

6* Warriors/Pelicans Western Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans +5

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans are out for some serious revenge on the Warriors.  Not only did they get swept in the playoffs last year, they also lost the opener on ring night to the Warriors 95-111 on the road.  They are 0-2 on the season with two road losses, but now they return home and have had two days off in between games to get ready for the Warriors.  Golden State won't have that same luxury as it won at Houston last night and will be playing the second of a back-to-back.  Two of the past three meetings in New Orleans have gone to overtime.  Andrew Bogut is hurt for the Warriors, so look for Anthony Davis to have a field day.  Davis went just 4-of-20 in the opener against the Warriors with Bogut on the floor, but that was a fluke as he's averaged 30.9 points on 56.9 percent shooting in his previous seven matchups with Golden State.  New Orleans is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games off a road loss.  The Pelicans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 41-20-3 ATS in their last 64 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take New Orleans.

6* NCAAF Dog of the Week on Tulane +31.5

The Key: Memphis is rolling right now at 7-0 and ranked in the Top 25.  Many feel that this is the best Non-Power 5 team in the country and that the Tigers are deserving of a New Year's 6 bowl bid.  While I won't argue against that much, the fact of the matter is that it's time to sell high on the Tigers.  They are coming off back-to-back wins and covers against Ole Miss and Tulsa.  They know that their fate rests in their next three games following this matchup with Tulane, which makes this a lookahead spot.  They have a trio of key AAC games on deck in Navy, Houston and Temple.  Don't expect them to put their best foot forward against Tulane this week.  Tulane is coming off one of its strongest performances of the season.  In a losing effort at Navy, it actually outgained the Midshipmen 386-291 for the game.  The Green Wave do have a good defense that can keep this game closer than expected.  They are also going with a change at QB in Jordy Joseph, who led them on an 88-yard TD drive late against Navy.  I like that change because this offense needs a spark and he's a veteran.  Last year Memphis beat Tulane 38-7 despite the Green Wave outgaining the Tigers 351-334 for the game.  It was a fluky final score because Memphis returned two interceptions for touchdowns to turn a close game into a blowout.  Memphis is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  The Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after a game where 80 or more combined points were scored.  Take Tulane.

6* USC/Cal Pac-12 *PUNISHER* on USC -4

The Key: Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham said it best after his team's 24-42 loss at USC last week.  He stated that USC is the best 4-3 team in the country, and that's a massive understatement.  The Trojans could easily be 7-0 right now, but their 4-3 record has them undervalued.  Their offense averaged 38.9 points and 492.0 yards per game, while their defense gives up just 21.7 points and 395.4 yards per game.  They are outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game and nearly outgaining them by 100 yards per game despite playing a difficult schedule that has included Stanford, Notre Dame, Utah, Arizona State and Washington.  California breezed to a 5-0 start against soft competition, but has met its match the last two weeks.  The Golden Bears lost 24-30 at Utah and then 24-40 at UCLA last week.  They gave up 573 total yards to the Bruins, and now they will be up against another high-powered offense here in USC.  USC is 11-0 in its last 11 meetings with Cal since 2004 with an average margin of victory of 19 points per game.  Last year's 38-30 USC win was the closest the Golden Bears have come since 2007, but that game only got close because Cal scored two late touchdowns long after the game had been decided.  Take USC.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -4.5

The Key: Penn State is 5-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.4 points per game.  The Nittany Lions have held the opposition to just 11.8 points per game at home this year.  They lead the nation in sacks (31), and now they'll be up against a primary passing team in Illinois and Wes Lunt.  He won't have the luxury of handing the ball off to top running back Josh Ferguson, who is out with an injury.  Lunt will be under pressure all game as this Penn State defense carries it to victory.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 straight up in their last nine home meetings with the Fighting Illini.  Not only do they win this one, but they cover with ease winning by a touchdown or more.  I also like the fact that James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off an ATS loss where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Take Penn State.

6* USF/Navy AAC *EARLY RISER* on Navy -7

The Key: I'm always looking to back Ken Niumatalolo's teams and the triple option at the right opportunity.  Navy just joined the AAC this year, so other teams aren't familiar with the triple-option, which is a big reason for Navy's 5-1 start to the season.  The Midshipmen are 3-0 in AAC play with wins over ECU (45-21), UConn (28-18) and Tulane (31-14).  Now they face a South Florida team that is overvalued after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games off wins over Syracuse, UConn and SMU.  USF coach Willie Taggart is an offensive guy, and first-year defensive coordinator Tom Allen has not seen anything like the triple-option at the FBS level.  Despite being 4-3, South Florida has actually been outgained in six of its seven games this year.  The Bulls are getting patted on the back because they aren't used to winning, but this team clearly isn't as good as the 4-3 record suggests.  Plus, QB Quinton Flowers is playing banged up right now.  Expect Navy QB Keenan Reynolds to be the difference in this one as he's primed for a big game against an unprepared USF defense.  The Midshipmen are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Navy.

7* Wyoming/Utah State ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on UNDER 49

The Key: Wyoming is only averaging 19.5 points per game this season.  And that's with a healthy QB Cameron Coffman and a healthy WR in Tanner Gentry for most the year.  Both both Coffman and Gentry are going to miss this game due to injury.  Coffman was completing 65.8 percent of his passes with a 15-to-7 TD/INT ratio, so that's a big loss.  His backup is freshman Nick Smith, who has completed just 7-of-21 (33.3%) of his passes this year.  Gentry leads the team with 678 receiving yards and is also a huge loss.  I don't expect Wyoming to do much against this Utah State defense, which only gives up 321.3 yards per game.  At the same time, Utah State lacks firepower offensively as well.  It only averages 338.1 yards per game this year.  Both teams like to run the football as Wyoming rushed is 40 times per game and Utah State averages 38 attempts per contest.  That will keep the clock moving and aid this under.  Utah State beat Wyoming 20-3 last year and 35-7 in 2013 in two pretty low-scoring games that finished well under this 49-point total.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games overall.  Wyoming is 17-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *BLOWOUT* on San Antonio Spurs -14

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets might be the worst team in the NBA this season.  They still have Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez around, but outside of those two it's very ugly.  They are starting Shane Larkin and Wayne Ellington, who combined for six points in a season-opening 100-115 home loss to the Bulls.  They are an awful defensive team that the Spurs should shred up.  San Antonio lost 106-112 at Oklahoma City and will be motivated for its first win in its home opener tonight.  The Spurs may be the best team in the NBA now that they added LaMarcus Aldridge.  Kawhi Leonard has arrived, scoring a career-high 32 points against the Thunder.  The Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  The Spurs are 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take San Antonio.

6* Royals/Mets Game 3 *CA$H COW* on New York -142

The Key: It's now or never for the New York Mets.  Down 0-2 in this series, Game 3 is a must-win, and I look for them to get the job done behind the massive advantage they have on the mound.  Noah Syndergaard is 8-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.814 WHIP in 13 home starts this year.  He has pitched well in the postseason, too, going 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his last three starts.  Yordano Ventura sports a 4.36 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in 15 road starts this year, and a 4.02 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in three postseason starts.  The Royals are 0-5 in Venturas last 5 interleague starts.  The Mets are 8-2 in Syndergaard's last 10 home starts.  The Mets are 17-1 (+15.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season.  Take New York.

6* Oregon/Arizona State ESPN *BAILOUT* on Arizona State -2.5

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils want revenge from eight consecutive losses to Oregon coming in.  The Sun Devils are certainly a great team this season that already has three losses.  But those three losses have come to Texas A&M, Utah and USC with two of them on the road.  They are 3-1 at home with their only loss to USC, but despite the lopsided final score, they were only outgained by one yard by the Trojans.  They also went on the road and beat UCLA 28-13 while outgaining the Bruins by 123 yards.  Oregon also has three losses and is way down this year.  Its four wins have come against Eastern Washington, Georgia State, Washington and Colorado.  It has lost to Utah (by 42), Washington State and Michigan State.  ASU actually led Utah 18-14 on the road in the fourth quarter in its last game, too.  Oregon's defense allows 36 points and 462 yards per game this season.  Oregon's offense relies heavily on its rushing attack, which produced 297 yards per game.  But ASU is one of the best in the country against the run, giving up only 129 yards per game and 3.2 per carry.  The Sun Devils have allowed 76 or less rushing yards in four straight to some very good teams in USC, UCLA, Utah and Colorado.  The Sun Devils are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 20 points per fewer in their previous game.  Take Arizona State.

7* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +9

The Key: The Miami Dolphins have been arguably the best team in the NFL over the past two weeks since Dan Campbell took over.  They have a completely different mindset as these players are really buying into Campbell's tough man mentality.  They beat Tennessee 38-10 on the road and led Houston 41-0 at home before settling for a 44-26 victory.  The offense exploded for 434 total yards against the Titans and 503 total yards against the Texans.  The ground game has combined for 428 yards the past two weeks as the Dolphins have gotten more physical.  They are 2-2 in their last four meetings with the Patriots with the home team winning each time.  But the Dolphins have led 17-3 and trailed 13-14 at halftime in their last two trips to New England, but just haven't been able to close the deal.  They way they are playing right now, I believe they can pull off the upset.  The Patriots are coming off two straight 7-point wins over the Colts and Jets, and I fully expect this game to be decided by a TD or less as well.  The Dolphins are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Miami.

6* Hawks/Knicks NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on New York +4.5

The Key: The New York Knicks are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, while the Atlanta Hawks are going to take a big step back.  I love all of the moves the Knicks made this offseason, and it really paid off in their opener in a 122-97 rout at Milwaukee.  Newcomers Derrick Williams and Kristaps Porzingis combined for 40 points.  The Knicks bench outscored Milwaukee's reserves 73-32 in a game where Carmelo Anthony didn't have to do much as he scored just 11 points on 4-of-16 shooting.  That's a great sign for this team going forward.  The Hawks lost key wing DeMarre Carroll to the Raptors this offseason and aren't going to be nearly as good without his presence on both ends of the floor.  His replacement, Kent Bazemore, went scoreless in in 21 minutes in a 94-106 home loss to Detroit in the opener.  The Hawks should not be favored on the road tonight.  The Knicks played them tough last season as all three games were decided by 7 points or less.  Take New York.

6* Timberwolves/Lakers ESPN Late-Night *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -3

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers are finally healthy to open the 2015-16 season and should be able to play some great basketball in the early going as a result.  Kobe Bryant is back, and they've added in some nice pieces in Roy Hibbert, Lou Williams and De'Angelo Russell.  Julius Randle played great in the preseason and looks fully recovered from his season-ending injury that he suffered in the opener last year.  Jordan Clarkson is an up-and-coming star, so the Lakers are in really good shape with their starting 5, plus they have Williams, Nick Young and Brandon Bass providing some offensive punch off the bench.  The Timberwolves have one of the worst rosters in the NBA, and that showed in the preaseson as they ranked 30th in efficiency, getting outscored by 11.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Lakers have won 29 of their last 34 meetings with the Timberwolves, including 17 of their last 19 at home.  Take Los Angeles.

6* NBA Wednesday *TOTAL* Annihilator on Knicks/Bucks UNDER 193.5

The Key: The New York Knicks improved their defense this offseason by signing Robin Lopez, who is one of the best defensive centers in the league.  His presence has been felt in the preseason as the Knicks ranked 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up 94.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Milwaukee Bucks were a great defensive team last year in allowing just 43.7% shooting to opponents.  The Knicks averaged just 91.9 points on 42.8% shooting last year, while the Bucks managed to shoot just 45.4% from the field.  The final three meetings between these teams last year saw 190, 174 and 177 combined points, which is an average of 180.3 combined points per game.  I look for this game to finish in the 180-point range as well.  The Knicks are without shooting guard Aaron Afflalo, which hampers their offense.  The Bucks are without Jabari Parker, O.J. Mayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo, which hampers them as well.  Take the UNDER.

6* Mets/Royals Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +112

The Key: The Royals have all of the momentum now after coming from behind in the 9th inning to force extra innings, where they would eventually win in the 14th with a sacrifice fly from Eric Hosmer.  I like Johnny Cueto at home as he's 7-4 with a 3.08 ERA at home this season.  Cueto has also had plenty of success against the Mets in recent years from his time with the Reds in the National League.  He is 3-2 with a 2.05 ERA in his last seven starts against New York, allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of those seven starts.  Cueto is 21-6 (+13.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Take Kansas City.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls/Nets UNDER 196.5

The Key: The Bulls and Nets are accustomed to playing in low-scoring games when they get together.  None of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 200 or more combined points.  They have combined for 199, 178, 185, 186, 176, 168, 173, 192 and 187 points in their last nine meetings.  That's an average of 182.7 points per game, which is well below this posted total of 196.  It's also an 8-1 angle backing the under.  The Nets have one of the least-talented rosters in the NBA, and the Bulls don't have the personnel to run the up-tempo offense that Fred Hoiberg liked to run while he was at Iowa State.  The Nets run their offense through Brook Lopez, so they are a slow-it-down team this year.  Plus, starting PG Jarrett Jack is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury for the Nets.  The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and won't have a lot of energy to get up and down the court on offense.  Take the UNDER.

7* Pelicans/Warriors NBA Tuesday Night *BAILOUT* on UNDER 213

The Key: These teams are very familiar with one another after the Warriors swept the Pelicans in the playoffs last year.  Adding to that familiarity to open 2015-16 is that first-year head coach Alvin Gentry was an assistant for the Warriors last season.  That will be an interesting dynamic and one that should help lead to a low-scoring opener with all this familiarity.  These teams have combined for 208 or fewer points in five of their past six meetings at the end of regulation.  They have combined for 207, 216, 184, 205, 203 and 208 points at the end of regulation in their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Pelicans last 12 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-1-2 in Warriors last 11 home games.  The UNDER is 44-19-1 in Warriors last 64 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

6* Mets/Royals Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +100

The Key: Kansas City will take Game 1 of this series behind a strong start from Edinson Volquez.  He is 9-4 with a 3.28 ERA in 17 home starts this season, and 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts against the Mets.  He'll be opposed by Matt Harvey, who has been vulnerable on the road.  Harvey is 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA in 12 road starts this year.  The Royals are 56-31 at home this season, while the Mets are just 45-41 on the road.  Volquez is 9-0 against the money line at home this season with a price range of -100 to -150.  Take Kansas City.

7* Ravens/Cardinals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +9

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens certainly haven't had the season they wanted to up to this point.  But John Harbaugh is the kind of coach that will keep his players focused and believing they can turn it around.  The Ravens will have no problem showing up for Monday Night Football this week.  They are just 1-5, but their record could obviously be a lot better.  For whatever reason, they just haven't been able to get it done late in games.  All six of their games have been decided by 6 points or less.  That bodes well for them given this 9-point spread as I believe this contest will be decided by a touchdown or less as well.  Arizona has put up some pretty solid numbers this year, but consider that its four wins have come against teams who are a combined 7-17, and that makes it much less impressive.  Road teams off 5 or more straight ATS losses are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Ravens are 10-1 ATS when they fail to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games under Harbaugh.  Take Baltimore.

6* Raiders/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Oakland +4

The Key: The Oakland Raiders return from their bye week looking for a victory to get back to .500 on the season.  It beat Baltimore 37-33 at home and Cleveland 27-20 on the road, before back-to-back excruciating losses to Chicago (20-22) and Denver (10-16).  As you can see, Oakland has had a propensity to play in close games this year.  The same can be said for the Chargers, who are 2-4 right now with five of their six games decided by a touchdown or less.  I can easily see this game being decided by a field goal one way or the other, so there's some serious value here with the Raiders catching 4 points.  The fact that they're off their bye week means that they'll be more rested and prepared than the Chargers, who have to be mentally fatigued.  The Chargers have essentially lost to the Steelers and Packers on the game's final play each of the last two weeks.  It's going to be tough to recover from that mentally.  Plays against home teams with an offense that averages at least 370 yards per game against a team that averages 335 to 370 yards per game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 straight games are 25-6 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Chargers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC opponents, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West foes.  Take Oakland.

7* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Jets +8

The Key: The New York Jets rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential at +110.6 yards per game and 3rd in point differential at +10.8 points per game.  They are the real deal this season.  They have been led by a defense that ranks 1st in scoring at 15.0 points per game and 1st in yards allowed at 269.2 per game.  They have what it takes to beat the Patriots Sunday.  New England is coming off that huge win over the Colts and I don't think this is a great spot for the Patriots.  Consider that the last four meetings in this series were all decided by 3 points or less, and it's easy to see why the value is with the Jets this week.  Plus, they have held the Patriots to only 268 yards per game in those four meetings.  They just have the secret formula to beat New England, which is a top-notch defense and a running game.  They rank 1st in the NFL in rushing at 146 yards per game.  The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC.  Take New York.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +2

The Key: The Detroit Lions are just 1-5, but they have been competitive in every game outside of one with a chance to win in the 4th quarter.  This team is better than they've shown, and now they are going to be undervalued in the immediate future because of their record.  They were 2.5-point road dogs to Minnesota in the 1st meeting, and now they're 2-point home dogs in the rematch.  I'll gladly take that value back back the Lions here as they are feeling good after beating the Bears 37-34 last week.  Now they want revenge on the Vikings from that earlier loss.  Minnesota is overvalued right now due to going 4-1 ATS in all games this season.  But the Vikings are fortunate they don't have a worse record.  They are getting outgained by 46.2 yards per game this season, while Detroit is only getting outgained by 28.1 yards per game.  The home team is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams.  Take Detroit.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

The Key: It's now or never for the Kansas City Chiefs.  They have been dealt an absolutely brutal schedule to this point during their 1-5 start.  They have played four road games already with a win over Houston, but losses at Green Bay, Cincinnati and Minnesota, which are three of the best teams in the NFL.  They should be 2-0 at home, but they blew double-digit leads to both Denver and Chicago, losing in the final seconds in both games.  There's no way this team should be 1-5 right now.  The Chiefs actually outgained the Vikings 328-321 last week and had a chance to win with the ball late, but came up short again.  The Steelers should be 0-3 without Ben Roethlisberger, who is expected to miss his 4th straight game.  They were outgained by 93 yards in a 20-23 loss to Baltimore, by 57 yards in a 24-20 win at San Diego on the final play, and by 159 yards in a fluky 25-13 home win over the Cardinals last week.  So, they've been outgained by a combined 309 total yards the last three games.  Their luck is going to run out this week against a Chiefs team that simply wants this game more.  The Steelers are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring 15 or fewer points in its previous game.  The home team is 5-1 SU in the last 6 meetings.  Take Kansas City.

6* Bills/Jaguars Sunday Morning *EARLY RISER* on Jacksonville +4.5

The Key: Jacksonville fits a contrarian betting strategy that is 115-67 (63.2%) ATS in its last 282 tries.  It tells us to bet on team that are receiving less than 25% of the spread bets, who lost by 7 points or more in their last game, and who are listed as an underdog of 3.5 or more points.  Teams are almost always undervalued off a blowout loss like the 20-31 setback the Jaguars suffered to the Texans last week.  But they played better than that score showed, but three interceptions from Blake Bortles did them in.  They actually outgained the Texans 394-382 for the game.  In fact, despite being 1-5, Jacksonville is only getting outgained by 15.5 yards per game on the season.  Despite being 3-3, Buffalo is getting outgained by 21.2 yards per game this year.  I think these teams are much closer to equals than this line suggests.  Buffalo played its first game without Tyrod Taylor last week, and it was rocked 21-34 at home by Cincinnati.  Taylor is expected to miss this game, too, and E.J. Manuel simply isn't nearly as good.  The Bills can't be trusted to lay points with Manuel as their quarterback.  The Bills are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.  Take Jacksonville.

7* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Wyoming +35

The Key: Wyoming is just 1-6 this season, but it is flying under the radar right now.  The Cowboys have covered the spread in three straight games, but yet they are still catching 35 points against Boise State tonight.  They only lost by 18 at Appalachian State as 26-point dogs, by 14 at Air Force as 21-point dogs, and they beat Nevada 28-21 at home last week as 6.5-point dogs.  They played their best game of the season against Nevada, racking up 485 yards of total offense while outgaining the Wolf Pack by 80 yards in the win.  They also have a 17-point loss as 25.5-point road dogs to Washington State this season.  This team has proven it can go on the road and play with good teams, and that will be the case again Saturday.  Wyoming is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after a game where it committed no turnovers.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Broncos are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Wyoming.

6* C-USA Game of the Week on Old Dominion +13

The Key: Old Dominion is undervalued right now because it is 0-6 against the spread this season.  But it has gone 3-3 straight up and is a better team than this line suggests.  Florida International has no business being this big of a favorite here.  FIU's three wins this season have come against UCF, NC Central and UTEP, three of the worst teams in the country.  FIU even lost to a terrible team in UMass a few weeks ago 14-24.  That was a bigger blowout than the score showed as the Golden Panthers were actually outgained by 307 yards by the Minutemen.  These teams played a very close game last year with ODU winning 38-35 at home.  But the Monarchs should have won by more as they outgained the Golden Panthers 525-388 for the game.  I expect another close game, and while FIU may win the rematch, it won't be by two TD's or more.  The Golden Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Old Dominion.

6* AAC Game of the Week on SMU +13.5

The Key: SMU has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, which makes it easy to see why it is just 1-5 on the season.  It has already played three ranked teams in Baylor, TCU and Houston, actually covering the spread in all three of those games while playing those teams tougher than expected.  The Mustangs also have a loss to East Carolina, which is clearly a solid team.  South Florida has played a much softer schedule and it is overvalued due to back-to-back wins over Syracuse and UConn.  Now the Bulls face a well-rested SMU team that will have had 15 days in between games since its loss at Houston.  The Mustangs were only outgained by 58 yards by Houston in a game that was closer than the 21-point final would indicate.  South Florida has been outgained in four of its last five games.  The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Bulls are 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 home games.  South Florida is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team has won each of the last two meetings in this series over the past two years, and they were decided by a combined 11 points.  Take SMU.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Syracuse +7

The Key: Pitt just moved into the Top 25 rankings due to its 5-1 start and a 56-yard field goal that helped it beat Georgia Tech 31-28 on the road last week.  This is now a letdown spot for the Panthers, who will be playing their 5th road game in seven weeks.  They have a Thursday night showdown with North Carolina on deck for the top spot in the Coastal Division, followed by Notre Dame.  Pitt is averaging only 314 yards per game and 24 points per game on the road this year.  Syracuse really needs a win here if it wants to keep its bowl hopes alive.  The Orange are 3-1 at home this season with their only loss to LSU, a game in which the Orange actually had a 21-17 edge in first downs, and only lost 24-34.  Opponents are only scoring 18.8 points per game against the Orange at home.  Syracuse is 6-0 ATS after allowing 37 or more points in its previous game, coming back to win by 16.2 points per game in this spot.  Take Syracuse.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Texas -6.5

The Key: The 24-17 win over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry will catapult the Longhorns into bigger and better things the rest of the season.  Not only did they win that game, they really dominated it.  They outgained the Sooners 368-278 for the game.  That's significant because Kansas State just lost to Oklahoma 55-0 at home last week.  The Wildcats were outgained 110-568 for the game.  The Wildcats will have a hard time rebounding considering they are 0-3 in Big 12 play and their goals are no longer reachable.  Now they have to take on a Texas team that is brimming with confidence and chomping at the bit to get back on the field after having last week off.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Texas.

6* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -128

The Key: David Price will pick up his first postseason win today.  He should have had a win in Game 2, but his defense let him down in the 7th inning after he had pitched six shutout innings in Kansas City.  This guy is still one of the best in the business, and he's been special on the road this year at 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 17 starts.  Price is 2-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against the Royals.  Yordano Ventura is 13-9 with a 4.25 ERA this year, and 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA in three postseason starts.  I love the way the Blue Jays have responded in these elimination games this postseason, going 4-0 with all four victories coming by at least 3 runs apiece.  They'll live to fight another day after a Game 6 victory.  Take Toronto.

7* Memphis/Tulsa ESPN Friday Night Lights on Tulsa +10.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers are in a very bad spot here.  They are coming off their biggest win in program history over Ole Miss last week.  It was their 13th straight victory, and this team is clearly overvalued as a result.  I don't expect the Tigers to put their best foot forward against Tulsa in this one.  The Golden Hurricane are only 1-3 in their last four games, but the three losses came to Oklahoma, Houston and ECU.  They were competitive in all three games with losses to both the Sooners and Cougars by 14 points, and then a 13-point loss to the Pirates where they actually held a 463-382 yard edge.  The Golden Hurricane clearly have the offense to score at will on this soft Memphis defense.  QB Dane Evans and company are averaging 550.5 yards per game and 6.0 per play behind the expertise of former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery.  Tulsa will be amped up for this home game on ESPN.  The Golden Hurricane have won four of the last five meetings with the Tigers.  Memphis is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games following two straight wins.  Take Tulsa.

6* Seahawks/49ers NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle -6.5

The Key: Both teams are 2-4 and in need of a victory this week.  I just believe the Seahawks are going to want it more, and they are more equipped to win this game in a blowout because they are simply better in all phases than the 49ers.  The Seahawks would be 6-0 if they could hold on to a 4th quarter lead.  All four of their losses have come after they have held the lead in the 4th quarter.  I look for Pete Carroll to emphasize finishing in this one, and for his players to respond.  This may be a close game early, but I expect the Seahawks to pull away in the second half.  The 49ers simply aren't very good this year.  They rank 31st in point differential (-10.0 PPG) and 32nd in yardage differential (-87.8 YPG), so you could make the case that they're the worst team in the NFL.  The Seahawks are 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the 49ers, outscoring them by an average of 14.3 PPG.  They won both meetings last year by double-digits.  Take Seattle.

7* NCAAF Thursday Night *TOTAL* Annihilator on Georgia Southern/Appalachian State UNDER 62

The Key: I like this UNDER quite a bit for a couple reasons.  The first is that both teams run the football a lot as Georgia Southern averages 56 attempts per game while Appalachian State averages 47.  Both teams are good at stopping the run too as Georgia Southern gives up 136 rushing yards per game (3.9 YPC) and Appalachian State yields 109 rushing yards per game (3.2/carry).  The Mountaineers have only given up 6.0 points per game against all teams outside of Clemson.  These teams have combined for 59 or fewer points in each of their three meetings over the last three years, and an average of 53.0 PPG.  Appalachian State is 5-1 UNDER in all games this season with 51 or fewer combined points in five of six.  Take the UNDER.

7* Mets/Cubs Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -115

The Key: The Cubs know that if they can just get through this game, they'll have a fighting chance because they'll have Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta for the next two games.  They aren't going to lay down for the Mets in this one.  Jason Hammel has been an effective starter all season at 10-7 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 32 starts.  He also shut down the Mets in his only start against them, giving up just one earned run in 8 innings back in May at home.  Steven Matz gave up 3 runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings against the Dodgers last series.  The Cubs can get to him and will tonight.  The Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight home meetings with the Mets.  If a couple bounces go their way last night, they would have won that game, too.  Take Chicago.

6* Lafayette/Arkansas State *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 57.5

The Key: This total has been bet down from 63.5 to 57.5 and I believe it's going in the wrong direction.  There is now plenty of value in backing the OVER in this game as a 31-28 final will do the trick.  I look for both teams to at least get to 28 in this high-scoring affair.  Last year, these teams combined for 95 points in a 55-40 win by Lafayette.  Both offenses are averaging over 30 points per game this season with Lafayette putting up 30.8 and Arkansas State averaging 33.5.  The Arkansas State offense is especially explosive, but QB Freddi Knighten has missed three games due to injury.  Knighten returned last week to lead the Red Wolves to a 49-31 win at South Alabama.  Both defenses aren't very good again this season as Lafayette yields 32.4 points per game, while Arkansas State gives up 32.0 points per contest.  The Red Wolves are 8-0 OVER off a conference game over the last two seasons.  Arkansas State is 6-0 OVER in the second half of the season the last two years.  The Red Wolves are 7-0 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two years.  Arkansas State is 6-0 OVER vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game the last three seasons.  Take this 27-0 angle backing the OVER straight to the bank.  Take the OVER.

7* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Blue Jays -144

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays put up 11 runs on the Royals yesterday to get back into this series.  I look for those hot bats to continue tonight against Chris Young and the Royals in Game 4.  Young is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against Toronto.  R.A. Dickey has been dominant at home this season, especially of late, going 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA in his last eight home starts.  Dickey is also 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last four starts against the Royals.  His knuckleball has gotten better here down the stretch and will fool these Kansas City hitters after facing flame-thrower Marcus Stroman last night.  The Blue Jays are 12-3 in Dickey's last 15 starts overall and 6-1 in his last 7 home starts. Take Toronto.

7* Giants/Eagles MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -4

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles have simply owned Tom Coughlin and the New York Giants over the past several years.  They have gone 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Giants after sweeping the season series last year, which included a 27-0 beat down in Philadelphia.  The Giants need a late score to put away the lowly 49ers 30-27 at home last week.  Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and injuries certainly have not helped matters.  They rank last in the NFL against the pass in giving up 304.2 yards per game.  Sam Bradford threw for 333 yards as the Eagles racked up 519 total yards against the Saints in a 39-17 home victory last week.  It appears the Eagles have finally turned the corner and I expect them to keep it rolling on Monday Night Football.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Royals/Blue Jays ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -160

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays trailed 2-0 to the Texas Rangers in the ALDS and managed to win three straight elimination games to win the series.  This team is clearly a resilient bunch, and I expect them to show that resiliency again as they trail 2-0 to the Royals after losing the first two games in Kansas City.  Now they get back home where they will be a lot more comfortable.  It also helps that they have Marcus Stroman on the mound, who has gone 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 6 starts this year.  Stroman held the Royals to one run in 6 innings in his only lifetime start against them last year.  Kansas City goes with Johnny Cueto, who is 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA since joining the Royals.  The Royals are 1-6 in Cueto's last 7 road starts, while the Blue Jays are 6-1 in Stroman's last 7 starts overall.  Take Toronto.

6* Cubs/Mets NLCS *CA$H COW* on Chicago -159

The Key: Backing Jake Arrieta is never a bad idea.  All he's done is post a 0.83 ERA in his last 15 starts overall while also going 12-0 with a 1.18 ERA in his last 16 road starts.  Not to mention Arrieta has owned the Mets, going 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA in his last four starts against them.  The Cubs are 14-0 this season when Arrieta is a road favorite of -110 or more.  They haven't lost and aren't about to start losing in this huge Game 2 Sunday night.  Take Chicago.

7* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Diego Chargers +11

The Key: This play fits into a system that has gone 124-74 (62.6%) ATS over its last 198 tries.  It tells us to bet on team with an ATS record of 30% or less against teams with an ATS record of 51% or better in Week 6 or later.  Teams with poor ATS records are almost always undervalued, and it's even more true when they are up against teams with winning ATS record.  San Diego is 1-4 ATS this season, while Green Bay is 5-0 ATS.  The Packers might be the most overvalued team in the league right now.  They should not have covered last week as 9-point favorites in a 24-10 win over the Rams.  The Rams had their last five possessions in Green Bay territory, but came away with zero points.  They missed three field goals and had two interceptions.  San Diego has the kind of offense that will keep them in this game for four quarters.  Philip Rivers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the business, and he's leading the Chargers to an average of 410.0 yards per game.  This will be by far the best passing offense that the Packers have been up against, and the best offense in general.  Take San Diego.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Key: This play fits into a system that has gone 124-74 (62.6%) ATS over its last 198 tries.  It tells us to bet on team with an ATS record of 30% or less against teams with an ATS record of 51% or better in Week 6 or later.  Teams with poor ATS records are almost always undervalued, and it's even more true when they are up against teams with winning ATS record.  Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS this season, while Carolina is 3-1 ATS.  The Panthers are also 4-0 and overvalued as a result.  They have played the easiest schedule in the NFL with their four opponents in Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay combining for a 5-15 record.  Seattle has played one of the toughest schedule with its three road losses coming against Green Bay, St. Louis and Cincinnati, who are a combined 12-3.  The Seahawks are 28-2 at home over the past four seasons and 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  Take Seattle.

6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on New York Jets -6.5

The Key: The New York Jets are one of the best teams in the NFL this season.  They have opened up 3-1 with impressive double-digit wins over Cleveland (31-10) at home and Indianapolis (20-7) and Miami (27-14) on the road. Their only loss came at home to Philadelphia (17-24) in a game that they should have won.  They outgained the Eagles by 92 yards for the game but gave up an 89-yard punt return TD that was the difference.  They have actually outgained all four of their opponents.  They are averaging a respectable 356.2 yards per game on offense, and their defense may be the best in the NFL, giving up 13.7 points and 280.2 yards per game.  The Jets actually rank 2nd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 76.0 yards per game.  Only the Patriots have been better.  Now they take on a deflated Washington team that just lost in overtime at Atlanta last week.  But that game wasn't as close as the final score as the Redskins got a defensive touchdown and were outgained by 148 yards by the Falcons.  The Jets are fresh and ready to go as they are coming off their bye week.  The Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take New York.

6* Cubs/Mets NLCS *CA$H COW* on Chicago +110
The Key: The Chicago Cubs have the clear advantage on the mound in this one in my opinion.  Jon Lester has only gotten stronger as the season has gone on.  He has given up 3 or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts and sports a 2.42 ERA and 0.627 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Lester has been at his best on the road with a 2.99 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Matt Harvey was shaky in his first postseason start against the Dodgers, giving up 3 runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings and was fortunate to get a ton of run support.  That's not going to happen today.  Lester is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in 3 lifetime start against New York, and his teams are 3-0 having never lost.  The Cubs are 7-0 in seven meetings with the Mets this season.  Take Chicago.

6* SEC Game of the Week on Missouri +14.5

The Key: The Georgia Bulldogs should not be favored by more than two touchdowns against any SEC team right now.  They are down in the dumps after losing the last two weeks to Alabama and Tennessee.  After losing 10-38 at home to Bama, they blew a 21-point lead to Tennessee and lost 31-38 on the road last week.  Now they are without their best player in Nick Chubb for the rest of the season.  This is going to be a defensive battle with Missouri and one that favors the underdog with a total set of just 46 points.  Missouri has one of the best defenses in the country, givin gup 13.5 points and 275.8 yards per game.  The Tigers are really good against the run, allowing 113 yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  Georgia is a one-dimensional running team that struggles to throw the football due to poor QB play.  Missouri wants revenge from a 34-0 loss last year to Georgia in which it gave the game away by committing 5 turnovers.  The Tigers won 41-26 in their last visit to Georgia in 2013.  Missouri is 6-0 ATS off a loss over the last 3 seasons, coming back to win by 16.3 PPG.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in all road games over the last 3 years.  Take Missouri.

6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Michigan State +7

The Key: Michigan State is an underdog for the first time this season.  I'll gladly back the Spartans in this underdog role as they'll come out with something to prove for the first time this year.  After all, Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last 7 meetings with Michigan, so it has had the Wolverines' number and has to feel disrespected that it is an underdog here.  Michigan is one of the most overrated teams in the land because of what it has done recently against some extremely soft competition.  The Spartans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or less yards per carry, and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games off two straight conference wins.  Take Michigan State.

6* ACC Saturday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Georgia Tech -3

The Key: After going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are hungry for a victory.  They have played a brutal schedule during this stretch with 3 road games against Notre Dame, Duke and Clemson.  But now they return home where they are outscoring opponents by 37.0 points per game this season. Head coach Paul Johnson has said that his players need to get back to the basics, and that means a tough week of practice that will have the Yellow Jackets firing on all cylinders Saturday against Pittsburgh.  The Panthers aren't used to preparing for the triple-option, and that will be an advantage to the Yellow Jackets in this one.  Georgia Tech is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games following a loss by 17 points or more.  The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  The Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Georgia Tech.

7* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +7

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have really impressed me this season.  They have been in every game they've played, but they are just 2-3 on the year.  They lost to Auburn 24-31, Houston 31-34, and Clemson 17-20 to open the season.  But they have rebounded nicely since, beating Sanford 45-3 at home before going on the road and topping NC State 20-13.  So, they haven't lost a game yet this season by more than a touchdown.  That's key because they are catching a TD against Florida State, which may be the most overrated team in the country.  FSU has escaped with wins each of the last three weeks 14-0 over Boston College, 24-16 at Wake Forest, and 29-24 at home against Miami.  I believe Louisville is better than all three of those teams.  The Cardinals are off their bye week, so they will have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Seminoles.  They have had this game circled all offseason fter blowing a 21-7 halftime lead to FSU last year to lost 31-42.  Louisville is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a conference game.  The Cardinals are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 road games.  The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Louisville.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Ole Miss -10.5

The Key: Ole Miss is by far the superior team in this matchup with Memphis.  The Rebels have no margin for error if they want to accomplish their ultimate goal, which is making the 4-team playoff.  They have the talent to do it and actually come in undervalued in this game because of their loss to Florida a few weeks back.  But make no mistake, this is still one of the best teams in the country, and they proved that with their 43-37 win at Alabama.  Memphis is overvalued due to its 5-0 start against an extremely easy schedule.  The Tigers have put up huge offensive numbers, but now they run into an Ole Miss defense that is only allowing 19.7 points per game.  But the key will be the Ole Miss' offense scoring almost every time it touches the ball.  The Rebels are averaging 40.6 points per game this season.  They'll be up against a soft Memphis defense that allows 26.8 points and 438.4 yards per game.  Ole Miss beat Memphis 24-3 last year and outgained the Tigers by 322 yards, limiting them to only 104 yards of offense.  The Rebels are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games, and 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers.  Take Ole Miss.

6* Blue Jays/Royals ALCS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -114

The Key: Marco Estrada is going under the radar despite having a great season with the Blue Jays.  He's 13-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 29 starts this year.  He has gotten even better down the stretch, going 2-0 with a 2.06 ERA in his last five starts.  Estrada is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Kansas City.  Edinson Volquez hasn't enjoyed facing the Blue Jays.  In fact, he's 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA in six lifetime starts against them.  The Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. AL Central opponents.  Toronto is 46-20 in its last 66 games overall.  The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Kansas City is 1-4 in Volquez's last 5 starts.  Take Toronto.

7* Cincinnati/BYU Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cincinnati +7

The Key: Statistically, the Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country.  They outgain their opponents by an average of 190 yards per game thanks to an offense that is putting up 587.2 yards per game.  I look for the Bearcats to have their way with a fatigued BYU defense that is working on a short week of rest after playing on Saturday.  Cincinnati hasn't played since October 1 and will be fresh and ready to go for this one.  This is a huge scheduling advantage for the Bearcats, and one that should have them likely winning this game outright.  Cincinnati is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win.  BYU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their previous game.  The Cougars are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games off a 2-game home stand.  Take Cincinnati.

7* Falcons/Saints TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: Atlanta is simply rolling right now and I do not expect the Saints to be able to slow them down.  The Falcons are 5-0 this season and Matt Ryan is playing the best football of his career under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.  He finally has a running game, which he hasn't had in quite some time in Atlanta.  The Falcons have averaged 156 rushing yards over the past three weeks.  Atlanta is putting up 32.4 points and 406.2 yards per game this season.  Now this high-octane attack gets to go up against a New Orleans defense that allowed 28.6 points and 409.0 yards per game.  That matchup right there is going to lead to a blowout win for the Falcons.  It also helps that Atlanta's defense is improved, limiting the Redskins to 19 points and 270 total yards last week while coming up with the game-winning interception in overtime.  The Falcons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.  Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last year.  Take Atlanta.

6* Auburn/Kentucky SEC *CA$H COW* on Auburn PK

The Key: When you look at the talent rankings, it's clear that Auburn is a vastly superior team than Kentucky.  While the Tigers haven't lived up to their potential yet, I believe they will tonight as they have had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game.  I expect Gus Malzahn and Will Muschamp to have this team prepared better than they have been for any game yet this season.  They now take on a Kentucky team that is very fortunate to be 4-1 as all five of its games were decided by a TD or less.  That includes ugly home wins over non-conference opponents in Eastern Kentucky 34-27 (OT) and Louisiana-Lafayette 40-33.  The Wildcats were actually outgained in those two games combined, which is awful.  Auburn is 8-0 in its last 8 trips to Kentucky.  The Wildcats are 1-10 straight up in their last 11 vs. SEC West opponents.  Auburn will be the best team that the Wildcats have faced this season.  Take Auburn.

7* Astros/Royals ALDS *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -124

The Key:  After coming back to win from 6-2 down in the 8th inning of an elimination game in Game 4, the Royals have all of the momentum coming into Game 5 tonight.  I look for that momentum to carry them to a victory and a second straight trip to the ALCS.  The inexperience on the Astros will show in this winner-take-all game.  Johnny Cueto hasn't exactly been lights out for the Royals, but this is his chance to step up and deliver for the team that believed in him at the trade deadline.  Cueto has been at his best at home, going 6-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 15 starts this year.  Collin McHugh has not been as good on the road, going 8-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 17 starts.  Cueto is 20-6 (+12.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons.   Cueto is 14-2 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in his career.  The Astros are 44-97 in their last 141 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Kansas City.

6* Dodgers/Mets NLDS *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -150

The Key: Clayton Kershaw will get the job done tonight and send this series back to Los Angeles.  He lives for these moments and is ready to deliver for his team.  Kershaw is 3-0 with a 1.01 ERA in four lifetime starts at Citi Field, giving up just 3 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings while striking out 31.  He clearly loves throwing in this pitcher's park.  New York is 16-39 (-17.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.  Los Angeles is 25-4 in Kershaw's last 29 starts against the NL East.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Arkansas State/South Alabama Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Arkansas State -3.5

The Key: Arkansas State is just 2-3 this season, but the three losses have come to USC, Missouri and Toledo, and all three of those teams have been ranked in the Top 25 this year.  The Red Wolves even had Missouri on the ropes in a 27-20 home loss.  I really like this team because they have even played three games without their best player in QB Fredi Knighten, and they returned 15 starters from last year to make yet another run at a Sun Belt title.  Knighten returns from his 3-game absence tonight against South Alabama.  The Red Wolves are 3-0 all-time against South Alabama, including a 45-10 home win last year.  Knighten led the way with two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown.  The Red Wolves outgained the Jaguars 400-201 for the game.  This is a very inexperienced South Alabama team that returned only 5 starters from last year.  But a surprising 3-2 start has the Jaguars overvalued.  Their two losses weren't even close as they lost at Nebraska 9-48 and at home to NC State 13-63.  There's no doubt Arkansas State would have given those teams a better fight.  Arkansas State is rushing for 193 yards per game, which is bad news for a South Alabama defense giving up 205 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Arkansas State.

7* Steelers/Chargers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +4

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have had some extra time to prepare for the San Diego Chargers, which is going to be a huge advantage for them coming into this game.  They last played on Thursday in a 20-23 home loss to the Ravens in a game they never should have lost, but couldn't finish late.  Michael Vick made his first start in place of Ben Roethlisberger in that game, and he was at a disadvantage because he was working on a short week.  Now he has had basically 10 days to get ready for this game and to expand the playbook with offensive coordinator, Todd Haley.  Vick will be much more aggressive in this game, especially since he's up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Chargers are giving up 27.5 points per game this season, while the Steelers are only giving up 18.7 points per game.  The clear edge on defense goes to Pittsburgh, and I wouldn't give the Chargers as much of an edge offensively as this line indicates.  The Steelers have the better weapons in Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, while the Chargers are really banged up along the offensive line.  T King Dunlap and G Orlando Franklin are expected to miss this game, while T D.J. Fluker and G Chris Watt are both ganged up as well.  Pittsburgh is 70-48 ATS in its last 118 games as an underdog.  The Chargers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC opponents.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Blue Jays/Rangers ALDS *CA$H COW* on Toronto -129

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays extended this series with a huge 5-1 win on Sunday in Game 3.  They had the advantage on the mound yesterday, and they do again today behind R.A. Dickey.  The knuckleballer is back to pitching like he did when he won the Cy Young.  He is 8-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts since the All-Star Break.  Dickey is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA in 5 career starts in Texas, where he believes his knuckleball is even more effective because of the weather.  "Here it's good because the humidity is usually nice and it's usually warmer, and those are two things that contribute to a moving knuckleball, one that reacts favorably as far as movement's concerned," Dickey said. "That's what I rely on."  He'll be opposed by Derek Holland, who went 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Holland did not finish well, going 1-1 with an 8.05 ERA in his final 3 starts.  The left-hander also sports a 5.44 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts versus Toronto.  The Blue Jays are 11-3 in Dickey's last 14 starts.  The Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Toronto.

6* Blue Jays/Rangers Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Toronto -140
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays will win Game 3 to stay alive in this series.  They will do so behind the advantage they have on the mound.  Marco Estrada is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Estrada is 12-8 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 28 starts this year, and 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Texas.  Martin Perez has struggled most of the season, going 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 14 starts.  The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Estrada's last 5 Sunday starts.  Take Toronto.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Washington Redskins +7.5

The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4.  Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS.  Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.  In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points.  Low-scoring games favor the underdog.  This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons.  The Redskins fit the system this week.  They are actually 2nd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 95 yards per game.  The Falcons are overvalued this week due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS records.  Take Washington.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Chicago Bears +10

The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4.  Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS.  Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.  In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points.  Low-scoring games favor the underdog.  This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons.  The Bears fit the system this week.  The Bears offense looked much improved last week with Jay Cutler leading them to a win over the Raiders.  The Chiefs are clearly overvalued this week as double-digit favorites.  Take Chicago.

6* NFL Sunday *UPSET SPECIAL* on Jacksonville Jaguars +2

The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4.  Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS.  Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.  In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points.  Low-scoring games favor the underdog.  This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons.  The Jaguars fit the system this week.  The Bucs have lost 12 straight home games and should not be favored.  The Jaguars racked up over 400 yards of total offense on the Colts last week and should have won.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Rams/Packers NFC *CA$H COW* on St. Louis +9.5

The Key: Teams that finished last season with losing records (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4.  Eliminate both games featured two sub-.500 teams, and that record improves to 9-0 ATS.  Bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from the previous season.  In Week 5, I'm using a contrarian betting strategy that has us betting on road underdogs who won 6 or fewer games last season with a total set of 48 or fewer points.  Low-scoring games favor the underdog.  This system is 381-295 (56.4%) ATS with a +10% return on investment over the past 12 seasons.  The Rams fit the system this week.   The Packers are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start.  The Rams have beaten the Seahawks and Cardinals this season, two of the best teams in the NFL.  They can give Green Bay a fight.  Take St. Louis.

6* NCAAF Saturday Night *BLOWOUT* on Michigan State -13

The Key: Michigan State is 0-5 against the spread in its five games this season and is actually undervalued now as a result.  The Spartans actually dropped from No. 2 in the rankings down to No. 4 even after winning last week to improve to 5-0 on the season.  They held a 21-point lead over Purdue at half but had to hang on to win 24-21.  You can bet that head coach Mark Dantonio is going to preach finishing this week, and I look for the Spartans to put forth their best second-half effort of the season to put away a very poor Rutgers team.  Rutgers' two wins this season have come against Norfolk State and Kansas, and its 13-point win over the Jayhawks at home was far from impressive.  Kansas is easily the worst Power 5 team in the nation, and Rutgers is close to being the worst.  It lost at home to Washington State 34-37, which is the same WSU team that lost to an FCS opponent.  It also lost 3-28 at Penn State in its hardest game this season.  If the Scarlet Knights couldn't hang with the Nittany Lions, they stand little chance of keeping this one close against by far the best team they have played yet.  The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  Michigan State is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 road games, including 8-1 ATS in its last 9 conference road games.  This line has been bet down from 16.5 to 13, so there's clearly some value here.  After all, the Spartans beat Rutgers 45-3 at home last year.  Take Michigan State.

6* Arkansas/Alabama SEC West *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +17

The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks lost 14-13 last year to Alabama thanks to a missed extra point.  They will be in revenge mode after really outplaying the Crimson Tide in that game last year, outgaining them 335-227.  Arkansas has played its best two games the past two weeks.  It lost in overtime 21-28 to a very good Texas A&M team hile outgaining the Aggies by 34 points.  The Razorbacks then beat Tennessee 24-20 on the road last week while outgaining the Vols by 142 yards.  This is a letdown spot for Alabama off its big win over Georgia last week in a game that was closer than the 38-10 margin indicated.  The Crimson Tide only outgained the Bulldogs by 80 yards in that contest.  Alabama is 0-9 ATS in its last 9 home games vs. poor passing defenses that surrender 250 or more yards per game.  Take Arkansas.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Northwestern +10

The Key: Northwestern is 5-0 with impressive wins over Stanford, Duke and Minnesota by a combined score of 62-16.  Those are three really good opponents, and the Wildcats have made easy work of them.  But they still aren't getting any love here from the books as they are double-digits dogs to the Wolverines.  The Wildcats have lost the last 3 meetings to Michigan all by a single possession.  They lost in 2012 and 2013 in overtime and by a final of 10-9 last year.  It's safe to say that they are going to want revenge pretty badly in this one.  "Thinking back, those losses definitely stick out to me over the years so I definitely want to get one this week," senior left guard Matt Frazier said. Plays on road underdogs after allowing 9 points or less last game against an opponent that allowed 3 points or less in the first half of last game are 33-9 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Wolverines are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Northwestern.

6* SEC Game of the Week on South Carolina +20

The Key: The LSU Tigers struggle to blow out teams due to the style of football the play.  They are a ball control team that runs it the majority of the time, which eats up clock and makes it harder to win by big margins.  They failed to cover as 23-point favorites in a 34-24 win at Syracuse two weeks ago.  They didn't even come close to covering as 44.5-point home favorites against Eastern Michigan in a 44-22 win last week.  If they can only beat Syracuse by 10 and EMU by 22, then they don't have much of a chance to cover this 20-point spread against South Carolina, which is probably the second-best team they have played this year.  SC is way undervalued right now due to going 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS up to this point and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in SEC play.  The Gamecocks are simply catching too many points here.  Their defense is vastly improved the last two weeks as they held UCF to just 230 total yards and Missouri to 299 total yards.  LSU is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.  It is only winning by 11.0 points per game in this spot.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take South Carolina.

6* MAC Game of the Week on Central Michigan +6

The Key: Central Michigan should not be an underdog to Western Michigan in this game.  CMU is the better team this year, and oddsmakers are putting too much stock into the fact that WMU has a bye coming in.  It's not going to matter.  Central Michigan's three losses this year have come against three very good teams in Oklahoma State (13-24), Syracuse (27-30, OT) and Michigan State (10-30).  The Chippewas were only outgained by 77 yards by the Cowboys, they outgained Syracuse by 194 yards, and they also outgained Michigan State by 16 yards.  They have stood toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the country.  Western Michigan has been outgained in 3 of its 4 games this season.  It was outgained by 173 yards by Ohio State, 168 yards by Georgia Southern, and 69 yards by MIchigan State.  Cooper Rush is one of the most underrated QB's in the country, completing 67% of his passes for 1,450 yards with 8 touchdowns and 4 picks for the Chippewas.  Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series as the road team has won each of the last 3 meetings.  The Chippewas will be looking to avenge their 20-32 home loss to the Broncos last year.  CMU is 6-0 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6.25 or more yards per play the last 3 years.  WMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. excellent passing teams who average 275 or more yards per game.  Take Central Michigan.

7* NC State/VA Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2

The Key: VA Tech QB Michael Brewers returns from a shoulder injury that has sidelined him since the Ohio State game.  That's going to give this offense a huge boost.  The Hokies were on their way to upsetting Ohio State before Brewer got hurt, and they have been in a tailspin ever since.  But with him back, this offense is going to be much better tonight against NC State, which lost its first game of the season at home to Louisville last week after playing a bunch of cupcakes coming in.  The Hokies have one of the best defenses in the nation, too.  The Hokies are 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* Cubs/Cards National League *CA$H COW* on Chicago +100

The Key: I believe the Chicago Cubs are the best team in the National League right now.  The Cardinals went 15-16 down the stretch and are not as good as they were earlier in the year en route to winning 101 games.  The Cubs have won 98 games and finished strong, including their 4-0 win over the Pirates in the wild card game.  Jon Lester really turned it on down the stretch, too, proving that he's the ace the Cubs were hoping for when they paid him all that money this offseason.  Lester has given up 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts.  He is 3-3 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in eight career starts against St. Louis.  Take Chicago.

6* Washington/USC Pac-12 *PUNISHER* on USC -16.5

The Key: Washington is in rebuilding mode under Chris Petersen this season.  He returned just 9 starts and lost a ton of talent to the NFL.  In their two toughest games this year, the Huskies were thoroughly outplayed by Boise State and California.  They were outgained by Boise State by 158 yards and outgained by Cal by 222 yards.  Their offense only put up 179 yards on Boise State and 259 on California.  Now they will be up against the best team they have faced yet in USC.  Their offense won't be able to score enough points to keep up.  USC averages 47 points, 532 yards and 8.1 yards per play this season.  It beat down Arizona State 42-14 on the road last time out, and this Washington team isn't nearly as good as ASU.  USC is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games following a win by 28 or more points on the road.  Take USC.

7* Colts/Texans TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -3.5

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts are going to be without Andrew Luck, which is why this line has moved so much since it opened at Texans +1.5.  The Texans simply need this game too badly to overlook the Colts playing without Luck.  They are 1-3 and their season is pretty much on the line tonight.  They got embarrassed last week by the Falcons due to self-inflicted wounds, so they are going to be playing with an extra chip on their shoulder because of that.  Arian Foster is on his second game back and expect a heavy dose of him as this Houston offense is so much better with him in the lineup.  The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and are in trouble again today.  They should have lost to the Jaguars last week as they gave up 431 total yards to that putrid offense.  They are now giving up 388 yards per game and will be up against a Houston offense averaging 384 yards per game.  Take Houston.

6* Astros/Royals American League *CA$H COW* on Houston +127

The Key: I look for the Houston Astros to ride their momentum from a 3-0 wild card victory over the Yankees into Game 1 of this series with the Royals.  They could easily be last year's Royals with the way they won the wild card game and made the World Series.  This team has more firepower than the Royals did last year, and their entire staff is underrated.  Collin McHugh won 19 games this year with a 3.71 ERA to boot.  He went 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.015 WHIP over his final three starts of 2015, so he came through clutch when the Astros were battling for their playoff lives.  McHugh is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one lifetime starts vs. KC, pitching 7 shutout innings and striking out 9 in a 3-0 Houston victory in Kansas City last May.  Yordano Ventura is not the type of ace most staffs would like to have.  He's 13-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.298 WHIP in 28 starts this season and very beatable.  The Astros are 6-1 in McHugh's last 7 starts.  Houston is 13-3 in McHugh's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Royals are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series.  Take Houston.

7* Cubs/Pirates Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -134

The Key: Jake Arrieta has been unhittable since the All-Star Break.  He sports a 0.75 ERA since the break, which is an MLB record.  His 1.77 ERA on the season is the best mark for the Cubs since 1919.  He has owned the Pirates, too, going 6-1 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.831 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against them.  In 2015 alone, Arrieta is 3-1 with a 0.75 ERA in 5 starts against the Pirates.  He has only allowed 3 earned runs over 36 innings against Pittsburgh in 2015.  The Cubs are 13-0 in Arrieta's 13 starts as a road favorite this season.  Arrieta is 7-0 against the money line in road games off 3 or more straight wins in his career.  Arrieta is 12-0 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.  That's a 32-0 angle backing Arrieta and the Cubs.  Take Chicago.

7* Astros/Yankees *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 7
The Key: I expect there will be plenty of runs scored in tonight's Wild Card game between the Yankees and Astros.  These are two of the top home run hitting teams in baseball, and Yankee Stadium has yielded the second-most home runs in baseball this year.  The Astros are 2nd with 230 homers, while the Yankees are 4th with 212.  Masahiro Tanaka has given up 25 homers in 154 innings this season, including 17 in 87 1/3 innings at home.  Dallas Keuchel is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA on the road while giving up 13 homers in 102 2/3 innings.  Tanaka gave up 3 homers and 6 earned runs over 5 innings in a 9-6 loss to Houston on June 27 in his only lifetime start against the Astros.  The Astros have combined with their last five opponents to score at least 8 runs.  The Yankees have combined with 5 of their last 6 opponents to score at least 7 runs.  Houston is 10-1 OVER (+9.0 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season.  It is combining with opponents for an average of 12.4 runs per game in this spot.  Take the OVER.

7* Lions/Seahawks MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -9.5

The Key: At 1-2 on the season, the Seattle Seahawks certainly need a win tonight.  That's why they will not be overlooking the 0-3 Lions, who are simply a mess right now.  The Seahawks' only two losses have come against the Packers and Rams on the road this season.  They crushed the Bears 26-0 in their only home game last week while outgaining them by 225 total yards in an absolute blowout.  The Lions have been outgained in every game during their 0-3 start, and they are getting outgained by 90.7 yards per game on the season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.  The Seahawks will be going for their 7th straight home win and their 23rd in 25 home games Monday night.  Seattle has won its last two home meetings with Detroit by a combined 33 points.  The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams who allow 375 or more yards per game since 1992.  They are winning by 22.0 points per game in this situation.  Take Seattle.

6* Packers/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +9

The Key: I am following a contrarian betting strategy in Week 4 that has produced consistent winners over the long haul.  The betting public overreacts to teams who score fewer than 10 points the previous week.  They want nothing to do with these teams, and therefore there is serious value in them.  Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets and scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 129-79 (62%) ATS.  The 49ers are a system match this week.  They suffered the biggest Week 3 blowout loss by 40 points to the Cardinals.  The 49ers opened as 9.5-point underdogs, and despite over 80% of the spread bets being on the Packers, this line has dropped down to even 7 in some places.  This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that the sharp money favors the 49ers.  Since 2003, home underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 118-88 (57.3%) ATS, which provides even more value on the 49ers.  Take San Francisco.

7* NFC West Game of the Month on St. Louis Rams +7.5

The Key: I am following a contrarian betting strategy in Week 4 that has produced consistent winners over the long haul.  The betting public overreacts to teams who score fewer than 10 points the previous week.  They want nothing to do with these teams, and therefore there is serious value in them.  Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets and scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 129-79 (62%) ATS.  The Rams are a match this week.  After scoring 34 points against the Seahawks in a Week 1 victory, the Rams managed just 10 points in a Week 2 loss to Washington and six points in a Week 3 loss to the Steelers.  The red-hot Cardinals, meanwhile, now have the fourth-best odds (+1,150) to win the Super Bowl.  This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Rams and sell high on the Cardinals.  The Cardinals are receiving nearly 90 percent of the spread bets this week.  Take St. Louis.

6* NFC South Game of the Week on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

The Key: I am following a contrarian betting strategy in Week 4 that has produced consistent winners over the long haul.  The betting public overreacts to teams who score fewer than 10 points the previous week.  They want nothing to do with these teams, and therefore there is serious value in them.  Since 2003, teams that receive less than 30 percent of spread bets and scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 129-79 (62%) ATS.  The Buccaneers are a match this week.  One week after upsetting the Siants as 10-point underdogs, the Bucs tallied just 318 total yards in a 19-9 loss at Houston in Week 3.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are 3-0 and receiving 90% of the spread bets this week.  But the Panthers have played a very soft schedule as their opponents are a combined 2-7.  Underdogs have historically performed well in division games, which provides additional value on the Bucs this week. Take Tampa Bay.

6* Clemson/Notre Dame ABC Saturday Night *BAILOUT* on Clemson -1.5

The Key: The Clemson Tigers are one of the best teams in college football.  With all of their injuries, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are no longer one of the best teams in the land.  That will show Saturday as Clemson gets it done and continues its success at home.  After all, the Tigers are 28-2 at home over the past 5 seasons.  This is a great spot for Clemson too because it last played on September 17 and will have had 15 days of rest in between games.  Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in its last game.  The Fighting Irish are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games against elite defenses that give up 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Tigers are only allowing 12.3 points and 261.0 yards per game this year.  Take Clemson.

6* Miss State/Texas A&M SEC West *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M -5

The Key: The Texas A&M Aggies are a team on the rise with 16 starters back from last year.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs are on the decline with only 7 starts back this season.  Texas A&M has already beaten two very good teams in Arizona State (38-17) and Arkansas (28-21) during its 4-0 start.  Both of those games were at neutral sites, and now the Aggies get to play inside a hostile atmosphere at Kyle Field.  Mississippi State only managed 19 points against LSU and 17 against Auburn.  Texas A&M has its best defense since Kevin Sumlin arrived here and will limit the Bulldogs as well.  But the Aggies have a distinct advantage on offense as they are putting up 41.5 PPG thus far.  Plays on any team after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 3 straight games, who return 8-plus offensive starters and their QB against teams returning 5 or less defensive starters are 44-15 ATS over the last 10 years.  Sumlin is 9-1 ATS in home games after a game where his team committed zero turnovers in all games he has coached.  Sumlin is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a 62% or more completions.  Take Texas A&M.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Vanderbilt +3

The Key: This is SEC vs. Conference USA and really an easy choice here with getting Vanderbilt as an underdog.  Yes, Vanderbilt already lost to once C-USA team in Western Kentucky, but they gave that game away and should have won.  They lost 12-14 to WKU despite outgaining the Hilltoppers by 147 yards and limiting their high-powered offense to only 12 points and 247 total yards.  I was really impressed with Vanderbilt's efforts against Georgia and Ole Miss, too.  They were only outgained by 22 yards by Georgia in their 14-31 loss.  They only lost to le Miss 16-27 despite being 27-point underdogs.  And as you know, many consider Ole Miss to be the best team in the country after they went on the road and beat Alabama.  Vanderbilt is 29-11 ATS in its last 40 road games after playing its last game on the road.  The Commodores are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games with a total set between 45.5 and 49 points.  The Commodores are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. C-USA opponents and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.  The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -113

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the American League despite already clinching the AL East division.  That's why they aren't taking their foot off the gas just yet unlike the Rays, who have already clinched a losing record this season.  The Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 games and 43-16 in their last 59 games overall.  Marco Estrada is 13-8 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.067 WHIP over 27 starts and 6 relief appearances, including 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Chris Archer is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 2.113 WHIP in his last 3 starts for Tampa Bay.  Estrada is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.300 WHIP in two lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay, both of which came this season.  He has pitched 16 2/3 shutout innings against the Rays while allowing a mere 5 base runners in 2015.  Archer allowed 9 earned runs and 15 base runners in 3 2/3 innings in his last start against Toronto on September 26.  Take Toronto.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Boston College +7

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a massive win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last week by a final of 34-20.  But they were very fortunate to win that game because they only gained 279 yards of total offense and were outgained by the Yellow Jackets by 37 yards.  They are now in a letdown spot this week against Boston College.  This is a very good Boston College team and perhaps one of the most underrated in the country.  After wins over Howard and Maine by a combined 100-3 score, the Eagles have really shown what they could do against great competition the last two weeks.  They were only outgained by 22 yards in a 0-14 loss to Florida State.  They outgained Northern Illinois by 173 yards in a 17-14 home win that was a bigger blowout than the score showed.  That's also the same NIU team that only lost to Ohio State 20-13.  Boston College has the type of defense that will keep it in a lot of games.  The Eagles are giving up an absurd 7.7 points and 118.0 yards per game this season.  Opponents are only averaging 2.3 yards per play against this stingy bunch, which may be the best in the country.  The Eagles are 38-20 ATS in their last 58 when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Steve Addazio is 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of BC.  Take Boston College.

6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Iowa +6

The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team in the Big Ten West division from what I've seen this year.  It has a good road win over Iowa State by 14 and a solid home win over Pittsburgh by a field goal.  It has thoroughly dominated its two lesser opponents, outgaining Illinois State by 200 yards in its 31-14 home win, and crushing North Texas 62-16.  It is outgaining the opposition by an average of 144.7 yards per game this year.  Wisconsin has only played one good team in Alabama, and it was thoroughly dominated 17-35 in a bigger blowout than even that final score showed.  Its other three wins have come against Miami Ohio, Troy and Hawaii, and it only scored 28 points against the latter two teams.  Iowa wants revenge from a 24-26 home loss to Wisconsin last year.  Iowa is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after scoring 50 or more points in its previous game.  The Hawkeyes are 40-16 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry since 1992.  Iowa is only giving up 84 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  Wisconsin is without top running back Corey Clement for 4-6 weeks.  The Hawkeyes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Iowa is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games overall.  Take Iowa.

7* UConn/BYU ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Connecticut +14.5

The Key: BYU has nothing left in the tank.  It is coming off four huge games against Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA and Michigan.  Now it will be working on a short week and won't have enough to put away UConn by more than four touchdowns.  I've been very impressed with this UConn defense and believe this will be a close, low-scoring game.  UConn is only giving up 17.2 points and 295.2 yards per game this season.  The Cougars are 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a 2-game road trip.  Take UConn.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -108

The Key: While the Toronto Blue Jays have clinched the AL East division, there is still work to be done.  They are tied with the Kansas City Royals for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  I'll back Mark Buehrle, who is 14-7 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.223 WHIP while continuing to get it done in the twilight of his career.  Erazmo Ramirez hasn't had the greatest success against the Blue Jays, going 1-1 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in four lifetime starts against them.  The Blue Jays are 42-16 in their last 58 overall.  The Rays are 1-5 in Ramirez's last six starts.  Take Toronto.

 7* Ravens/Steelers TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3

The Key: The Ravens have a must-win game on their hands as they cannot afford to fall to 0-4.  They could be 3-0 right now but blew fourth quarter leads in all three of their losses to the Broncos, Raiders and Bengals.  "This is a must-win for sure," Baltimore linebacker Elvis Dumervil told the team's official website. "We won't quit, and you can guarantee that Pittsburgh, (it will) get our best shot."  Without Ben Roethlisberger, I don't give the Steelers much of a chance this week.  Michael Vick has to come in and start on a short week and won't be fully prepared because of it.  Joe Flacco owns a 6-3 record in his last 9 starts against the Steelers with 13 touchdowns passes against only 2 interceptions.  The Ravens are 14-4 ATS following an upset loss as a home favorite.  Take Baltimore.

6* Miami/Cincinnati Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +6.5

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats are way better than they are getting credit for here.  They have outgained each of their first 4 opponents by at least 97 yards apiece, yet they are 2-0.  Being -10 in turnover differential through four games is the reason why.  Their offense is putting up 623 yards per game while their defense is only allowing 390.  They are outgaining opponents by 233 yards per game.  Hayden Moore threw for 557 yards on Memphis in only three quarters last week and may be a better starter than Gunner Kiel, who simply turns the ball over too much.  Cincinnati is 27-0 at home against non-conference opponents dating back to 2002.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against good offensive teams who score 31 or more points per game.  Take Cincinnati.