6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -2 

The Key: The Heat have playoff revenge in mind from the 76ers knocking them out in the first round last year.  And they will be playing a depleted 76ers team that is without Jimmy Butler, Dario Saric and Robert Covington, the 3 players in the big trade with the Timberwolves.  The Heat should be able to get a win and cover here at home Monday night given the situation.  The Heat are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games vs. teams who attempt 27-plus free throws per game.  Take Miami. 

6* Seahawks/Rams NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle +10 

The Key: Russell Wilson has never been a double-digit underdog in his career.  And he has only been a dog of 7.5 or more 3 times.  It’s no surprise that the Seahawks are 3-0 ATS in those 3 games.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Seahawks here.  They just had their bye 2 weeks ago and came back from it with a 28-14 win at Detroit.  They should still be fresh.  The Rams haven’t had their bye yet and are starting to show signs of wearing down, especially defensively where they are allowing 27.3 PPG in their last 6 games overall.  And that’s why the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.  Only one of those 6 games resulted in a double-digit win by the Rams.  The Rams are also 2-10 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who complete 64% of their passes or better over the last 3 seasons.  Their pass defense has been leaky, and Russell Wilson should be able to exploit it.  Take Seattle. 

7* NFC Total of the Year on Seahawks/Rams OVER 50.5 

The Key: The Seahawks and Rams combined for 64 points in their first meeting this season.  And now they’ll be in perfect weather in Los Angeles.  The Rams have arguably the best offense in the NFL as they’re scoring 33.2 PPG.  And their defense has been very leaky of late by allowing 27.3 PPG in their last 6 games.  The Seahawks have come alive offensively by scoring 27 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games.  I think both teams get to at least 27 today as well.  The OVER is 15-4 in Seahawks last 19 road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 10-plus PPG.  The OVER is 19-6 in Seahawks last 25 road games as a dog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Take the OVER. 

6* Patriots/Titans AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +7 

The Key: The Patriots have to be getting tired.  They haven’t had their bye yet and they are now overvalued after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They are being asked to lay a full touchdown on the road against the Titans today.  This is a Titans team that is fresh after having a bye 2 weeks ago.  And they came back with an impressive 28-14 road win at Dallas as 4-point underdogs last week.  They have a very good defense that is giving up only 17.6 PPG this season.  That gives them a chance to be competitive here against the Patriots.  And Marcus Mariota torched that Dallas secondary.  He should be able to find plenty of holes in a Patriots defense that is allowing 381 YPG this season.  The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The Titans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tennessee. 

6* Thunder/Mavs Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas +1.5 

The Key: The Thunder have been able to win their first two games without Russell Westbrook, winning on the road at Cleveland and at home against Houston.  But we see this time and time again.  Teams play well for one or two games without their stars, but then it catches up to them.  I think that happens tonight here against the Mavericks.  The Thunder will be without Westbrook again here tonight.  The Thunder are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 ATS coming in.  The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games off a loss by more than 10 points.  The Mavs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 home meetings.  Take Dallas. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +7.5 

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets have gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Warriors, including a 6-point home loss in their first meeting this season.  The Nets are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Golden State.  And their job gets a lot easier today against a banged-up Warriors team that is playing without Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Shaun Livingston and DeMarcus Cousins.  They are just a shell of their former selves right now and will be a money burner for backers until they get healthy.  The Nets have a legitimate shot to win this game outright, just like the Bucks did the other night in their 134-111 win at Golden State.  Take Brooklyn. 

7* FSU/Notre Dame Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State +17 

The Key: This line has hardly moved since it was announced that Ian Book was out at quarterback for Notre Dame.  Oddsmakers aren’t adjusting enough for his absence.  Brandon Wimbush will take his place, and he’s a terrible passer.  He’s completing just 55.3% of his passes this season compared to 74.5% for Book.  Wimbush has a 1/4 TD/INT ratio compared to the 15/4 mark for Book.  Wimbush is a running quarterback.  That plays right into Florida State’s hands.  The biggest strength of this entire FSU team is their run defense.  The Seminoles only give up 111 RYPG and 2.8 YPC!  That’s not what you would expect form a 4-5 team like them.  But this is the Super Bowl for the Seminoles and they’ll come to play tonight to try and knock off the unbeaten Fighting Irish.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  The Fighting Irish are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 November games.  All the pressure is on the Irish tonight.  Take Florida State. 

6* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Oregon +4.5 

The Key: Utah’s two best offensive players are out for this game.  QB Tyler Huntley is out with a broken collarbone, while star RB Zack Moss (1,092 yards, 11 TD, 6.1 YPC) is out with an ankle injury.  The Utes shouldn’t even be favored in this game tonight.  Justin Herbert and this Oregon offense will be the best unit on the field now.  Oregon has had Utah’s number, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Ducks won outright as underdogs each of the last 2 seasons, and they’ll do the same again here Saturday given the huge injuries for the Utes.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-9 ATS since 1992.  Take Oregon. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on UL-Monroe -7 

The Key: The ULM Warhawks have reeled off 3 straight victories to get to 5-4 this season.  They can clinch bowl eligibility with a win Saturday and should be able to do so in blowout fashion against 2-7 South Alabama.  Few teams were more impressive than ULM last week.  They beat Georgia Southern 44-25 and outgained them by a ridiculous 357 yards in the process.  That was a one-loss GA Southern team at the time whose lone loss came to Clemson.  It was as impressive as any win in the Sun Belt this season.  Look for the Warhawks to keep rolling this weekend.  South Alabama is 1-14 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  Take UL-Monroe. 

6* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Northwestern +10 

The Key: Underdogs are 9-0-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season.  The Wildcats have covered every time they’ve been a dog this season with one push.  And they are 5-1 in Big Ten play this season with wins over Michigan State, Wisconsin and Purdue.  They are a good team and they aren’t getting treated like it.  The Iowa Hawkeyes already have 3 conference losses and could suffer a hangover here off their two straight tough losses in the closing seconds to Purdue and Penn State.  Take Northwestern. 

6* Mississippi State/Alabama SEC *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +24.5 

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are prone to hangovers after big wins.  And this is the perfect spot for one after their huge win at LSU last week.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs have managed to stay within 25 points of Alabama in 11 of the past 14 meetings.  They have been competitive against what has been the most dominant football program ever over the past decade-plus.  Mississippi State certainly has the defense to be competitive this season, too.  The Bulldogs are yielding just 12.3 PPG this year.  They have been stout against the run and the pass.  Mobile QB Nick Fitzgerald should be able to do enough with his legs to put up enough points to stay within the number as well.  Take Mississippi State. 

6* Timberwolves/Kings Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Sacramento +3 

The Key: The Sacramento Kings have been flying under the radar this season.  They are 6-5 SU & 7-4 ATS and have picked up some impressive wins along the way.  But off back-to-back losses to Milwaukee and Toronto, they should be hungry for a victory at home tonight against the Timberwolves.  Minnesota has off-court distractions that just aren’t getting fixed.  They have lost 4 in a row coming in with 3 of those losses by double-digits.  And the Timberwolves are 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 11.0 PPG in the process.  Minnesota is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 road games dating back to last season.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Sacramento. 

6* Washington/Auburn Top 25 *CA$H COW* on Washington +10.5 

The Key: The Washington Huskies should be one of the top teams in the Pac-12 this season.  They went 21-13 and 10-8 in conference play last year in the first season under Mike Hopkins.  And now they return all 5 starters from a team that suffers zero key losses from that team.  I backed them against Western Kentucky in a 73-55 win as 8.5-point favorites in their opener.  Now I’m taking them as double-digit underdogs here against Auburn.  This game will be closer than the books are expecting.  Take Washington. 

7* Arkansas/Texas ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas -6 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns return 4 starters this season and should be one of the top teams in the loaded Big 12.  The Arkansas Razorbacks lost 6 of their top 7 scorers from a year ago and are in rebuilding mode under Mike Anderson.  I think it’s worth laying the 6 points with Texas here given that these programs are going in opposite directions heading into the season.  Take Texas. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -5 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are just rolling along and consistently undervalued.  They are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS this season.  They have won 5 of their 7 home games this season all by double-digits.  And they should make easy work of the Clippers tonight.  The Clippers will be without Avery Bradley, and his loss is huge because he would have been guarding either Lillard or McCollum.  Now they just have Patrick Beverly to guard one of those two, which means the other should be able to go off.  It will most likely be McCollum, who is coming off a 40-point game and gaining confidence in his shot.  The Clippers are 37-64 ATS in their last 101 games off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.  The Blazers are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 home games.  Take Portland. 

7* Panthers/Steelers NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 51.5 

The Key: This is a very high total for two teams with solid defenses.  The Panthers are allowing 344.7 YPG this season while the Steelers are giving up 348.2 YPG.  These teams are 11th and 12th in total defense, respectively.  The Panthers are 8-1 UNDER in road games on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.  The Panthers are 48-21 UNDER in their last 69 games off a win against a division rival.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Steelers lsat 25 games following an ATS win.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 49.5 or greater after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last 5 games, in November games are 30-7 since 1983.  Take the UNDER. 

6* 76ers/Pacers ESPN *CA$H COW* on Indiana -2.5 

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are still in search of their first road victory of the season.  They are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS on the road this year and getting outscored by a whopping 15.2 PPG.  That’s why I have no problem laying the short price with the Pacers at home tonight as only 2.5-point favorites.  They are one of the top teams in the East and took Lebron James and the Cavs to 7 games last year, which nobody else in the East can say.  The Pacers are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the 76ers as well.  The 76ers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games.  The Pacers are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 games following a loss.  Take Indiana. 

7* Toledo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -3 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies can basically wrap up to the MAC West title with a win tonight.  No question they’ll be motivated to get it done.  This has been one of the best teams in the MAC all season, and they should be able to handle Toledo by more than a field goal at home tonight.  NIU is 6-3 this season with its 3 losses coming to Utah, Iowa and Florida State.  The Huskies have handled their business in MAC play this year with a 5-0 conference record.  They also went on the road and upset BYU.  Toledo is still without starting QB Mitchell Guadagni.  Their backup has played well in his place, but against soft defenses, and he’s going to really get tested tonight against the best defense in the MAC.  The Huskies are giving up just 20.4 PPG and 327 YPG in MAC play this year.  That’s the difference in this game.  Toledo is allowing 26.4 PG and 445 YPG this season.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Northern Illinois. 

6* WKU/Washington ESPNU *BAILOUT* on Washington -8.5 

The Key: The Washington Huskies should be one of the top teams in thePac-12 this season.  They went 21-13 and 10-8 in conference play last year in the first season under Mike Hopkins.  And now they return all 5 starters from that squad and suffer zero key losses.  Look for them to get out of the gate quickly against Western Kentucky tonight.  WKU only returns 2 starters, and they will be without Auburn transfer DeSean Murray, who is suspended to start the season.   Lamonte Bearden (11.8 ppg LY) is one of the two returning starters, and he’s serving a 6-game suspension to start the year as well.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers +2 

The Key: The Bucks are really starting to get too much love from the books now after their 8-1 start to the season.  They are being asked to go on the road and lay points here to one of the better teams in the Western Conference in the Portland Trail Blazers, who are 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS.  If anything, the Blazers are getting disrespected.  They should play the underdog card here and get an outright win and cover.  The Bucks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 ATS coming in.  Bets on home teams of +3 to -3 in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams who average 82 or more shots per game, after a game where they allowed a shooting percentage of 35% or less are 26-6 ATS since 1996.  Take Portland. 

7* Kent State/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +20 

The Key: Buffalo doesn’t even need to show up tonight.  The Bulls can lose outright and it won’t matter.  Next week’s game against Ohio will decided the MAC East champion.  I think their lack of motivation will allow Kent State to get the cover here.  And I also like that there is gusts of up to 50 miles per hour forecasted in this one, which should keep this a low scoring affair.  Take Kent State. 

6* Timberwolves/Clippers NBA *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5 

The Key: The Timberwolves are in disarray.  They are just 4-6 this season and coming off road losses by 30 and 17 points.  They won’t be able to hang with an improved Clippers team tonight.  The Clippers are rested having the last 2 days off since beating the Magic by 25 on the road last time out.  The Timberwolves are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games.  The Clippers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Titans/Cowboys NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 40 

The Key: This is a very low total for an NFL game.  It doesn’t take much to go OVER 40 points in the NFL anymore with the rules that favor the offenses.  And I think with both teams off bye weeks they’ll have come up with some more creative game plans to spark their offenses.  The Cowboys should already get a spark with the addition of Amari Cooper.  They should have one of the better offenses in the league moving forward now that they have a legitimate No. 1 receiver.  The Cowboys are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 home games when playing with 2 or more weeks rest.  Bets on the OVER when the total is 35.5 to 42 against teams off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division opponent, in November games are 26-3 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the OVER. 

6* Packers/Patriots Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Green Bay +6 

The Key: Getting Aaron Rodgers as a 6-point underdog against the Patriots is a nice proposition.  That’s especially the case when you consider Rodgers is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog of 6 points or more in his career.  It doesn’t happen often.  It happened last week and the Packers nearly won outright at the Rams, losing by just 2 points.  They would have won the game outright had Ty Montgomery not fumbled the kickoff in the closing minutes.  I actually like that the Packers lost that game because it means they’ll be playing with even more of a sense of urgency today against the Pats.  Take Green Bay. 

7* AFC Game of the Year on Cleveland Browns +9 

The Key: Backing teams in their first game with a new head coach is certainly a profitable move long-term.  It gives that team new life and new hope, and the first game out is the time to back them.  I’ll back the Browns today because of it.  The Chiefs are 31st in total defense this season, which makes them vulnerable despite having one of the top offenses in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS off 4 straight games where they gained 6 YPP or more in their last 10 tries.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +6.5 

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are a team I want to back with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback.  He utilizes the plethora of weapons the Bucs have at receiver much better than Jameis Winston does.  He’s not afraid to go deep.  He led the Bucs back from 21 points down to nearly beat the Bengals last week, losing on a last-second field goal.  And with Fitz the Bucs are never out of any game.  That makes them scary as 6.5-point dogs to the Panthers today.  The back door will always be open if we need it.  Tampa is 8-0 ATS off a game where 70 points or more were scored in their last 8 tries.  The Panthers are 0-6 ATS off 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.  Take Tampa Bay. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Houston Rockets -8 

The Key: James Harden makes his return from a hamstring injury tonight.  That should help ease the load on the Rockets from playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.  And they should be fresh either way because this is still just their 3rd game in 8 days.  The Bulls are also playing on a back-to-back tonight after losing yet another heartbreaker to the Pacers by 2 points last night.  They could be flat here off back-to-back tough close losses.  And the Bulls will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  They’re already short-handed with 4 key players out with injury in Markkanen, Dunn, Portis and Valentine.  They won’t be able to keep pace with the Rockets tonight.  The Rockets are 28-13 ATS as a road favorites over the last 2 seasons.  The Rockets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Bulls winning by 32, 9 and 21 points.  Take Houston. 

6* Boston College/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Boston College -2 

The Key: Virginia Tech used to have a great home-field advantage.  But that is clearly no longer the case.  The Hokies are just 8-9 SU at home in ACC play over the last 5 seasons.  Boston College is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last 7 ACC road games.  The Eagles travel well and should be able to beat a down Virginia Tech team that is 1-2 at home this season with blowout losses to both Notre Dame (23-45) and Georgia Tech (28-49).  Their only home win came against William & Mary.  And they also lost on the road to Old Dominion (35-49) as 28-point favorites earlier this season.  The Hokies have one of the youngest defenses in the country.  They are giving up 5.8 yards per carry in ACC play this year.  Boston College, which rushes for 230 yards per game this season, should have its way on the ground against the Hokies.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off a home games over the last 2 seasons.  The Eagles are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Take Boston College. 

6* Georgia/Kentucky SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky +9.5 

The Key: Kentucky just gets no respect from oddsmakers.  The Wildcats are 9.5-point home dogs to the Georgia Bulldogs this week despite being 7-1 and ranked #9 in the country.  The Wildcats have earned that ranking by going 5-1 in ACC play with their only loss coming in overtime on the road at Texas A&M.  And I think they have what it takes to hang with Georgia this week.  Georgia looked vulnerable with its 16-36 road loss at LSU a few weeks back.  And the Bulldogs are coming off the Cocktail Party win over Florida last week, making this a precarious spot for them.  Kentucky’s defense is good enough to keep them in this game.  The Wildcats are yielding just 13 PPG and 295 YPG this season.  This will be the best ever atmosphere in Lexington for a college football game with the SEC East title essentially riding on the outcome.  Take Kentucky. 

7* NCAAF Independent Game of the Year on Liberty +2 

The Key: Liberty is the better of these two teams.  They sit at 4-3 on the season with wins over the likes of Troy and New Mexico.  And they’ve been competitive in most of their games.  Plus they had a bye last week to get ready to face UMass this week.  UMass is coming off a fortunate 22-17 victory at UConn last week as they trailed most the way.  And UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Minutemen are just 3-6 this season with their other two wins coming against Duquesne and Charlotte.  All 6 of their losses have come by double-digits.  Now they have to face an option team here in Liberty.  The last time they faced an option team they lost 13-34 at Georgia Southern as 1.5-point underdogs on September 8th. Liberty is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog.  Take Liberty. 

6* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +8 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have hit rock bottom.  They are just 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Their only win came on a last-second field goal in a 17-14 home win over Iowa State as 11.5-point favorites.  They are coming off a 26-27 loss at Kansas as 13-point favorites.  Gary Patterson seems to have lost this team.  And injuries haven’t helped.  TCU recently lost its best playmakers on offense in KaVontae Turpin.  Two of the best defensive players are out for this game in LB Ty Summers and S Niko Small.  Kansas State certainly won’t quit on Bill Snyder.  The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with their only blowout loss coming at Oklahoma last week.  They played Texas to a 5-point game and Baylor to a 3-point game while upsetting Oklahoma State 31-12.  At 3-5 this season, the Wildcats have a great shot to win their next 3 games as they host Kansas and Texas Tech after this.  That would get them into a bowl game.  The Wildcats are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  Take Kansas State. 

6* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -14.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones continue to fly under the radar.  Since Matt Campbell took over, this has been one of the greatest turnarounds of any program in the country.  The Cyclones have gone 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall, including 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  They have played the toughest schedule in the country and have gotten through with a 4-3 record.  And they’ve been in every game they’ve played with all 3 of their losses coming by 10 points or less to Iowa, Oklahoma and TCU.  They beat West Virginia handily at home, won at Oklahoma State, and handled Texas Tech at home last week.  Now they catch Kansas at a good time.  The Jayhawks are coming off a rare win in the Big 12 with a 27-26 upset victory over TCU last week.  That’s a TCU team that appears to have quit.  And I think the Jayhawks will suffer a letdown this week off that monumental win.  Look for the Cyclones to make easy work of them just as they did last season in a 45-0 win in Ames.  The Cyclones are 16-3 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Colorado/Arizona NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona -2.5 

The Key: Khalil Tate finally looked healthy for the first time all season last week as he returned from injury to face Oregon.  The Wildcats played their best game of the season in a 44-15 victory.  Tate threw for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win.  And now the Wildcats are getting zero respect for that victory as only 2.5-point home favorites over Colorado Friday night.  I think the Wildcats remain hungry because they are 4-5 and need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and this game is a must-win if they want to get to a bowl because they have a road game at Washington State next time out that they’re unlikely to win.  And they get a bye next week so they certainly want to go into their bye with a taste of victory.  Colorado blew a huge lead against Oregon State last week and lost 34-41.  I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight as the competition has ramped up.  Colorado is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Buffaloes are also 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points were scores over the last 2 years.  Take Arizona. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Memphis Grizzlies +8 

The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season.  Their 4 wins have all come by 8 points or more, including a 92-84 road win at Utah as 11-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  This line is only 8 because Utah has some key injuries right now.  The Jazz are expected to be without leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (23.3 PPG) tonight and key reserve Alec Burks.  I just don’t see how they’re going to cover this spread without Mitchell.  The Grizzlies come in on 2 days’ rest.  Memphis is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 vs. NBA Northwest Division teams.  The Jazz are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Utah.  Take Memphis. 

7* Raiders/49ers NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 44.5 

The Key: Both the 49ers and Raiders don’t play any defense.  The Raiders have been moving the ball on offense just fine and have to air it out now without a running game.  They scored 28 on the Colts last week but also gave up 42.  The 49ers have been moving the ball fine even without Jimmy G at quarterback.  Beathard is banged up but should be able to produce one of his best games of the season against the Raiders tonight, and even if Mullens has to play I like the 49ers’ chances of keeping pace with Carr and company.  Either way there won’t be much defense being played tonight.  Take the OVER. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder started the season 0-4 and that has had them undervalued.  They have since reeled off two straight blowout home victories over the Suns and Clippers and I think they are back to being the team we thought they’d be coming into the season.  Russell Westbrook was banged up to start the season, so that had a lot to do with the slow start.  But now they are basically at full strength going forward.  They are certainly better than the Charlotte Hornets, who are now overvalued after a 6-2 ATS start to the season.  The Hornets should not be favored here.  Charlotte is 2-16 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.  The Hornets are 5-21 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 ATS over the last 3 seasons.  The Thunder are 14-5-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Take Oklahoma City. 

6* Ohio/Western Michigan MAC *CA$H COW* on Ohio -3 

The Key: The Ohio Bobcats were MAC title contenders coming into the season and now they are playing like it after a rough start in the non-conference.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.  Their only loss came on the road at Northern Illinois by a field goal, 21-24.  Their last two wins have been 49-14 over Bowling Green and 52-14 over Ball State.  Now they face a Western Michigan team coming off a 24-51 home loss to Toledo.  And the Broncos suffered a huge loss in that game when starting QB Jon Wassink suffered an ankle injury.  Wassink has thrown or 2,009 yards and 16 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions this season.  He also rushed for 6 scores.  It’s a big blow for the Broncos and a big downgrade to Kaleb Eleby at quarterback.  No question the Bobcats have the best QB in the MAC in Nathan Rourke, who has thrown 14 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, while also rushing for 569 yards and 6 scores.  I’ll take the team with the much better quarterback tonight.  The Bobcats are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  Take Ohio. 

6* Pacers/Knicks ESPN *CA$H COW* on New York +6 

The Key: The New York Knicks are 5-2 ATS this season and have consistently been overlooked by oddsmakers.  I expect them to hang with the Indiana Pacers tonight and possibly pull off the upset as 6-point home underdogs.  The home team is 22-6 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with Indiana.  Take New York. 

7* Ball State/Toledo MAC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66 

The Key: Ball State has several key injuries right now that will hamper their ability to score points.  Riley Neal means everything to this team at the quarterback position.  He was knocked out for the season in their last game and won’t be returning.  That leaves backup QB Drew Pitt to take the reigns.  Also, leading rusher James Gilbert is questionable to play tonight with a back injury.  They have some serious injuries on the offensive line as well.  For Toledo, starting QB Mitchell Guadagni is questionable with a shoulder injury, and even if he plays he won’t be 100%.  Ball State is 12-2 UNDER in its last 14 games as a road dog of 14.5 to 21 points.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight Wednesday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Toledo.  Take the UNDER. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 

The Key: I like the situation for the Grizzlies tonight.  They are rested with 2 days off in between games and will be playing for just the 2nd time in 6 days here.  The Wizards will be playing their 5th straight road game and their 5th game in 9 days.  They are 1-3 on this trip thus far with their only win coming by one point in overtime, and they are coming off a 32-point loss to the Clippers.  I think the Wizards are running out of gas, especially with injuries to two key players in Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris.  The Grizzlies are 17-4 SU & 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with the Wizards.  Washington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Memphis. 

7* Kent State/Bowling Green MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +1.5 

The Key: Both Kent State and Bowling Green are 1-7 this season.  But it’s clear to me that Kent State is better than their record, while Bowling Green is every bit as poor as its record.  The only win for Bowling Green came 42-35 at home over Eastern Kentucky.  The lone win for Kent State came 54-14 over Howard, the same Howard team that only lost 32-38 to Ohio.  And Kent State has losses by 1, 1, and 7 points this season to Illinois, Ohio and Akron.  Bowling Green’s 7 losses have all come by 7 points or more, and 6 of them by 15 points or more.  These teams have 2 common opponents with both losing, the difference being Kent State only losing by 13 PPG while Bowling Green losing by 25 PPG.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams who average 250 PYPG or more and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. teams who allow 230 RYPG or more.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following a loss.  The Falcons are 1-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 years.  Take Kent State. 

7* Pats/Bills AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45 

The Key: The Bills have the worst offense in the NFL.  They are averaging just 11.6 PPG and 234 YPG.  And their offense has been even worse without Josh Allen.  Derek Anderson came out of retirement to quarterback the team.  It didn’t go well last week as the Bills managed just 5 points against the Colts.  But the Bills do have a solid defense as they are only giving up 321 YPG this season, which is one of the best marks in the league.  And they can slow down the Patriots enough to keep this total UNDER the number.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams when the total is 42.5 to 49 points in conference games, off a road win where they scored 31 or more points are 24-5 since 1983.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams after going over the total by more than 14 points in consecutive games, after the first month of the season are 35-10 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New York Knicks -2 

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here Monday.  Not only that, they are coming off a hard-fought 114-120 loss to the Warriors last night in which they used a lot of energy for a 4th quarter comeback.  They will be tired and won’t be nearly as excited to face the Knicks as they were the Warriors.  The Knicks come in on 2 days of rest having last played on Friday.  They want revenge from a 105-107 road loss to the Nets on October 19th just 10 days ago.  The situation really favors the Knicks tonight.  Take New York. 

6* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West *CA$H COW* on UNDER 54 

The Key: The Broncos and Chiefs are meeting for a 2nd time in the month of October already today.  They combined for 50 points in their first meeting.  And I like the price on this UNDER 54 in the rematch Sunday.  Familiarity favors defense and I think both of these defenses will be up to the task today.  Denver is 13-3 UNDER vs. teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 47-20 in Chiefs last 67 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Jets/Bears Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on OVER 41 

The Key: I know there’s rain in the forecast in Chicago today.  However, this total has been bet down from 46 to 41 because of it, and now I like the price on the OVER.  Both of these offenses are better than they get credit for, and both defenses aren’t as good as they get credit for.  The Bears are scoring 28.3 PPG behind an improved offense under head coach Matt Nagy.  The Jets are scoring 26 PPG under QB Sam Darnold, who may wind up winning Rookie of the Year honors.  The OVER is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games overall.  Take the OVER. 

7* NFL Total of the Week on Ravens/Panthers UNDER 44.5 

The Key: The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense and total defense this season.  It’s no wonder they have gone UNDER the total in 5 straight games with 41 or fewer combined points in 4 of those.  And I like the price we are getting with the UNDER 44.5 on them here Sunday against another defensive minded team in the Carolina Panthers.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on California +12 

The Key: The Cal Golden Bears finally snapped out of their funk with a 49-7 beat down of Oregon State.  That result was more indicative of the potential of this team than the three consecutive losses that preceded it.  The Golden Bears gave away those three games by committing a combined 14 turnovers in them, which is almost unheard of.  They only gave the ball away once against Oregon State and amassed 539 total yards.  They can play with Washington if they don’t turn the ball over, and likely beat them.  The Huskies are just 2-6 ATS in their 8 games this season and have been overrated all season.  They should not be double-digit road favorites over the Bears this weekend.  Cal is 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Take Cal. 

6* Iowa/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +5.5 

The Key: Iowa has opened 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  The Hawkeyes have been one of the most underrated teams in college football.  And they really should be 7-0.  They led Wisconsin in the final minutes, and that was even after they committed two special teams mistakes that led to Badgers touchdowns.  This team is the real deal and they will prove it by beating Penn State on the road Saturday.  The Nittany Lions had their dreams crushed with back-to-back home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.  And then last week they were lucky to win 33-28 at Indiana as 14-point favorites because they were outgained by 137 yards and gave up 554 yards to the Hoosiers.  Iowa is one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run, giving up 80 RYPG and 2.7 YPC.  That bodes well for them being able to stop a Penn State rushing attack that is averaging 241 RYPG and 5.9 YPC.  Kirk Ferentz is 27-5 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 YPC or more as the coach of the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Arizona State +3.5 

The Key: USC suffered its third loss of the season last week in a 28-41 setback at Utah.  That was a much worse loss than the final score showed as the Trojans were outgained by 336 yards.  I think the air has been lifted out from underneath their sails now.  They have no chance to win the Pac-12 and little to play for the rest of the way.  Arizona State is a team that will keep battling under first-year head coach Herm Edwards.  The Sun Devils sit at just 3-4 this season, but all 4 losses came by 7 points or less, so they’ve had a chance to win every game.  They are much better than their record suggests.  And they’ve had extra rest after playing last Thursday in a 13-20 home loss to Stanford in a game they should have won as they outgained the Cardinal by 79 yards.  Look for them to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week, rested and ready to go.  The Sun Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss.  The Trojans are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  USC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The Trojans are 0-6 ATS off 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Arizona State. 

6* Wizards/Kings NBA TV *BAILOUT* on OVER 235 

The Key: The Wizards have been forced to go to a small lineup these last two games with Markieff Morris playing center.  That’s because both Dwight Howard and Ian Mahinmi are out with injuries.  And it’s no surprise that they have gone OVER the total in all 4 games this season, and the last 2 were the highest-scoring.  They combined for 249 points with the Blazers two games back and 266 points with the Warriors last time out.  And they should sail OVER this 235-point total with the Kings as well.  The Kings are 4-1 to the OVER this season and trying to play at a faster place to utilize De’Aron Fox’s skill set.  They have combined for 240, 278, 251 and 238 points in their 4 OVERS.  All four of those numbers were higher than this 235-point total.  Get ready for a shootout in Sacramento tonight.  Take the OVER. 

7* Wyoming/Colorado State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -1.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting on Colorado State as less than a field goal home favorite over Wyoming Friday night.  The Rams still have something to play for at 3-5 as they need to win 3 of their final 4 games to make a bowl.  And this one is their most winnable, so they should handle their business.  The Rams have a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Friday.  Their offense put up 489 total yards against Boise State in what was a misleading 28-56 loss.  The Broncos got 2 special teams touchdowns and the Rams outgained them by 17 yards.  Collin Hill took over for Carta-Samuels at QB midway through the game and finished 12-of-14 for 135 yards and a touchdown.  Hill is expected to get the start this week and is an upgrade over Carta-Samuels.  Wyoming is just 2-6 with very little to play for at this point.  It is coming off 4 consecutive losses, and its two wins this season have come against Wofford (17-14) and New Mexico State.  The Cowboys have been atrocious on offense in averaging just 15.5 PPG and 289 YPG this season.  I’m not sure how they are going to keep up with this potent Colorado State offense.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Wyoming is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Colorado State. 

6* Dolphins/Texans AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 44 

The Key: The Texans are primed for an offensive explosion tonight.  They have played one of the toughest schedule in terms of opposing defenses this season.  But they went off for 37 points against the Colts a few weeks back, and they should go off again against a Miami defense that yields 25.3 PPG and 405 YPG this season.  But the Dolphins have been able to put up some points on offense, even the last two weeks with Brock Osweiler at quarterback.  They scored 31 against Chicago and 21 against Detroit.  They even had over 500 total yards against a good Bears defense.  They should help contribute to this OVER as well.  The Dolphins are 7-0 OVER after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  The Dolphins are 8-1 OVER off a non-conference game over the last 3 years.  The Texans are 16-5 OVER in their last 21 games off 3 or more consecutive unders.  I think the price is right to back the OVER tonight.  Take the OVER. 

7* Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -3 

The Key: I love the situation for the Hokies tonight.  Both them and Georgia Tech are coming off bye weeks, and that clearly favors the Hokies.  Any time a team has extra time to prepare for the triple-option I’m looking to back that team because it’s so critical to get that extra prep time.  Whether it be off a bye or for a bowl game, it’s a huge advantage.  And defensive coordinator Bud Foster will be extra hungry after losing to Georgia Tech each of the last two seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall.  The Hokies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia Tech. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -3 

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Magic.  They are coming off a huge upset win over the Boston Celtics on the road.  I can’t help but think they will have a letdown at home against Portland tonight.  The Magic are just 18-40 ATS in their last 58 games following a victory.  And the Magic haven’t been very good at home this year, going 1-1 with a 3-point win over a depleted Miami team, and a 32-point loss to Charlotte.  The Blazers are coming off a loss that will have them focused.  And they’ve gone 4-1 in their last 5 meetings with the Magic with an average victory of nearly 15 PPG.  Take Portland. 

7* Wizards/Warriors NBA *Total* Annihilator on OVER 234 

The Key: The Wizards have to go small ball tonight because Dwight Howard didn’t make the trip West, and Ian Mahinmi left their last game with a back injury.  The Wizards went with Markieff Morris at center in their small ball lineup against the Blazers after Mahinmi’s departure and it worked well.  They eventually won 125-124 in overtime.  The Warriors love going small themselves, so this should be a track meet tonight.  The Warriors beat the Wizards 120-117 in their last meeting at Golden State.  I think both teams top 120 points tonight.  Washington head coach Scott Brooks even said prior to this game if you don’t score 120 it’s tough to win in today’s NBA.  And all his players complimented the small ball approach.  Take the OVER. 

6* Dodgers/Red Sox World Series *CA$H COW* on Boston -135 

The Key: The Dodgers just can’t seem to score enough runs to hang with the Red Sox.  This Boston lineup is the best in baseball, and that’s been on display during their 5-game postseason winning streak.  They scored at least 7 runs in 4 of those 5 wins, including the 8 they hung on the Dodgers last night.  The Dodgers have scored 5 runs or fewer in 8 straight playoff games.  David Price is 9-3 with a 3.41 ERA in 18 home starts this year for the Red Sox.  He should be able to hold this Los Angeles lineup in check.  Hyun-Jin Ryu is 2-2 with a 4.63 ERA in 8 home starts this year for the Dodgers.  He will get hit early and often by the Red Sox in this one.  The Dodgers are just 2-12 in Ryu’s last 14 road starts vs. at team with a winning record.  The Red Sox are 41-11 in their last 52 interleague games.  Take Boston. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls +4.5 

The Key: The Bulls are hungry for their first win of the season tonight.  They should get it as 4.5-point home dogs to the Hornets.  Their last two losses have come by a combined 8 points to the Mavs and Pistons, so they’ve been close.  And I like the price we are getting with the Bulls tonight.  The Bulls are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Hornets.  Charlotte is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 5-20 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 ATS over the last 3 years.  The Bulls are 15-3 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 years.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Chicago. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +11.5 

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot tonight.  They are in letdown mode off their 100-98 upset win over the defending champion Warriors last time out.  They won’t be nearly as hungry here tonight against the Kings, and that’s a problem when you’re being asked to lay 11.5 points.  I think the Nuggets come out flat here and the Kings get the cover.  The Kings are coming off a 131-120 upset road win of their own as 10.5-point underdogs against Russell Westbrook and the OKC Thunder.  But they won’t have a letdown because beating the Thunder is not like beating the Warriors.  The Kings are shooting 52.8% as a team this season as they’ve clearly improved dramatically on the offensive end, averaging 125.7 PPG.  Take Sacramento. 

6* Dodgers/Red Sox World Series *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +142 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers tonight over the Boston Red Sox.  Kershaw is exercising his postseason demons with a 2.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 3 playoff starts this year.  Chris Sale has made it past the 5th innings just once in his last 7 starts, and that was only a 5 1/3-inning outing against the Yankees this postseason.  Kershaw is 42-12 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.  Bet on him in these spots and you would be up +21.2 units over the last 2 years.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Troy/South Alabama Sun Belt *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5 

The Key: The Troy Trojans lost starting QB Kaleb Barker to a torn ACL two games ago.  Backup Sawyer Smith started against Liberty and the Trojans lost a defensive battle, 16-22.  This should be another defensive battle here against South Alabama if the recent series history is any indication.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 27 (2017), 49 (2016), 42 (2015) and 40 (2014) points.  I’m shocked to see this total sitting at 54.5 given the series history plus Troy’s QB situation.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Suns/Warriors NBA *BAILOUT* on Phoenix +12.5 

The Key: The Phoenix Suns should be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have a young roster and have been stockpiling talent for years.  That talent is about to come to fruition this season.  They got DeAndre Ayton with the No. 1 pick in the draft and he’s a can’t-miss player.  Devin Booker is becoming a star already.  And the addition of Trevor Ariza gives them a leader in the locker room that they’ve desperately needed.  All Ariza does is win everywhere he goes because he plays winning basketball.  The Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-100 loss in Denver last night.  Playing in altitude will have certainly taken more out of them than in most normal back-to-back situations. Take Phoenix. 

7* Giants/Falcons NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4.5 

The Key: The Falcons haven’t been covering this season because they can’t play defense.  They are 2-4 ATS, but their two covers came by 2 points over the Falcons and by 2 points over the Bucs.  That Bucs win last week needed a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant in the closing seconds to cover the 3-point spread in a 5-point win.  And Bryant hurt his hamstring on the kick and will miss this game.  As far as kickers go, Bryant is one of the most valuable in the league.  And his role is even larger in recent seasons with all of the red zone struggles by the Falcons.  But the biggest reason I’m fading the Falcons this week is their defense.  They are giving up 32 PPG and 418 YPG this season.  They are missing 3 defensive starters due to injury and haven’t been able to replace them.  The Giants have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  The Giants are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a Thursday game.  The Giants are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

6* Bengals/Chiefs Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Kansas City -6 

The Key: The Chiefs have played 4 of their first 6 games on the road this season, yet they’ve gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS.  Oddsmakers just can’t seem to price them right.  Their only loss was 40-43 to New England on the road last week.  They should get right here against the Bengals.  The Chiefs are 2-0 at home this season and an 11-point win over the 49ers and a 16-point win over the Jaguars.  The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Take Kansas City. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit Lions -3 

The Key: This is a great situation for the Detroit Lions Sunday.  They are coming off their bye and feeling good after beating the Packers 31-23 going into their bye.  They have gotten healthy and have been an underrated team, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They can get back to .500 on the season with a win here Sunday and will be hungry to do so.  The Dolphins are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-2 start this season.  But they’ve been winning with smoke and mirrors as all four wins were one-score games, and they came against the Titans, Jets, Raiders and Bears.  They stepped up in class and lost to the Patriots 7-38 and to the Bengals 17-27.  The Lions crushed the Patriots earlier this season.  Brock Osweiler will get the start against Sunday, and I’ll gladly fade him knowing that it’s unlikely he puts two good games in a row together.  Matt Patricia will make life tough on Osweiler with two weeks to get ready to face him.  The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Dolphins are 17-45-3 ATS in their last 65 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Detroit. 

7* Titans/Chargers London *Early Riser* on Los Angeles -6.5 

The Key: The Chargers are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 4-2 on the season with their only two losses coming to the Rams and Chiefs, who are the two best teams in the NFL to this point.  They crushed the Raiders by 16 at home before an even more impressive 38-14 road win over the Browns in their last two games.  They should have another blowout victory over the Titans here.  The Titans lost 21-0 last week to the Ravens and just have no semblance of an offense whatsoever.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL at 14.5 PPG and 263 YPG on offense.  Philip Rivers and company are scoring 29.2 PPG with 412 YPG on offense.  I just don’t see how the Titans can hang with Rivers and company here.  The Chargers are 29-4 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC South teams.  The Titans are 17-42-4 ATS in their last 63 vs. AFC teams.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Spurs/Blazers Western Conference *CA$H COW* on San Antonio +4.5 

The Key: The Spurs aren’t getting much respect early in the season.  I don’t think they’re any worse off than they were last year.  In fact, they should be better.  The replaced Kawhi Leonard with DeMar DeRozan.  Leonard played hardly at all last season, and DeRozan is healthy and still one of the best players in the NBA.  The Spurs haven’t lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Blazers by more than 4 points.  They are 7-3 SU in those 10 games with their 3 losses coming by 1, 1, and 4 points.  Take San Antonio. 

6* USC/Utah Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on OVER 48 

The Key: Both USC and Utah have come alive offensively.  Utah scored 40 against Stanford and 42 against Arizona in its last two games.  USC scored 39 against Washington State, 24 against Arizona and 31 against Colorado in its last three games.  I think this is a very low total given how well both offenses are clicking right now.  They’ve combined for 58 and 55 in their last two meetings.  USC is 7-0 OVER in its last 7 road games off 2 conescutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers.  Utah is 8-0 OVER in its last 8 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games.  Take the OVER. 

6* Alabama/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +29 

The Key: The Tennessee Vols are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt, who was the defensive coordinator at Alabama before coming here.  And Pruitt knows Alabama’s personnel and most of its playbook, which would be a big advantage for the Vols.  The Vols are coming off a 30-24 upset road win over Auburn as 15.5-point favorites.  They covered against Georgia the previous week as 31-point road underdogs, and now they should cover as 28.5-point home dogs to Alabama.  Tennessee has never been this big of a home underdog at least dating back to 1980.  There’s some value here with the Vols.  Take Tennessee. 

6* Conference USA Play of the Day on UTEP +23.5 

The Key: I like the spot for this improving UTEP squad Saturday.  They are coming off a bye and have to be gleaming with confidence after a 24-27 home loss to North Texas as 24.5-point dogs last time out.  North Texas is one of the best teams in Conference USA, so that was an impressive performance.  They only lost by 24 at Tennessee as 33.5-point dogs earlier this season, and have only lost by more than 24 points once this season.  But because they are 0-6 they aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers.  LA Tech is getting too much respect for its 31-3 win at UTSA last week.  That followed up a 7-28 home loss to UAB.  The last 3 meetings in this series were decided by 21, 21 and 2 points, and the Miners were massive underdogs in all 3 games.  They are once again massive dogs here and showing good value.  Take UTEP. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +4 

The Key: I think Auburn has thrown in the towel already.  The Tigers had SEC title aspirations coming into the season, but now they’ve lost 3 games already.  And they just aren’t that good.  They are coming off an ugly 24-30 home loss to Tennessee as 15.5-point favorites.  And I question their motivation now with 3 losses.  Ole Miss is feeling good with a 5-2 start with its only losses coming to LSU and Alabama, two of the best teams in the country.  They got a big 37-33 comeback road win at Arkansas last week.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ole Miss. 

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +8 

The Key: TCU is going to be in a sour mood with Oklahoma coming to town Saturday.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but the losses to Ohio State and Texas weren’t bad.  Their loss to Texas Tech was.  And Gary Patterson should have his team ready to go this week to make amends.  The Horned Frogs also want revenge from 2 losses to the Sooners last year, including in the Big 12 title game.  Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and has been an overvalued commodity.  Patterson is 10-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games as the coach of TCU.  Lincoln Riley is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Oklahoma.  Take TCU. 

7* Colorado State/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State +24 

The Key: Colorado State has played Boise State tough the last 2 years.  The Rams only lost by 5 as 28-point road underdogs in 2016 . And last year they lost by 7 in overtime as 6.5-point home dogs.  They led by 14 late in that game and it took a miracle for Boise State to win.  So the Rams will be out for revenge for sure.  And they are catching a whopping 24 points in this year’s meeting.  I just think Boise State is overrated right now.  They lost to San Diego State outright and barely beat Nevada in their last two games.  The Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Colorado State. 

6* Dodgers/Brewers NLCS *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 8 

The Key: The Dodgers and Brewers both have dynamite bullpens that make it tough to get runs across the plate.  And there’s a lot to like about the Game 6 starters tonight.  Wade Miley has pitched 18 2/3 shutout innings against the Dodgers in 2018 alone.  Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 17 consecutive starts, including zero runs in seven of them. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings in his last 5 starts.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Ryu’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Celtics/Raptors ESPN *CA$H COW* on Toronto -3 

The Key: Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Celtics and Raptors.  The home team is 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings.  The Raptors are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the Celtics.  This is a pretty cheap price to get the Raptors at tonight given the series history.  Take Toronto. 

6* Stanford/ASU Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford -2.5 

The Key: Stanford really needed the bye week to get Bryce Love healthy and recover from a grueling 3-week stretch.  They played Oregon, Notre Dame and Utah in consecutive weeks coming into their bye.  They looked worn down by the time they lost 21-40 to Utah.  Now they can regroup, and I trust David Shaw as one of the best head coaches in the country to get his team ready to go this week against Arizona State.  The Sun Devils have not fared well when they’ve stepped up in class this year, losing to San Diego State, Washington and Colorado.  They did beat Michigan State 16-13, but scored 10 unanswered points in the 4th quarter and were fortunate to win that contest.  The Cardinal are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Cardinal are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Take Stanford. 

7* Broncos/Cardinals NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -1 

The Key: We’re getting the better team here in the Broncos where they just have to win the game to cover the spread.  I’ll take it.  The Broncos need a win here after 4 straight losses against a tough schedule where they were underdogs in all 4 games.  But here they’re back to a favorite against the worst team in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.  It’s a Cardinals team that is putting up just 13.7 PPG and 220 YPG this season on offense.  You can’t win in today’s NFL with that kind of offense.  And now the Cardinals will be down two starting offensive linemen in Justin Push and Mike Iupati.  That doesn’t bode well for them against this dominant Denver defensive line.  The Broncos are moving the ball just fine averaging 388 YPG and 6.2 YPP.  The Broncos have won 8 of their last 9 meetings with the Cardinals for an 89% success rate.  Take Denver. 

6* Red Sox/Astros ALCS *CA$H COW* on Houston -1.5 (+110) 

The Key: Houston in a must-win game with Justin Verlander on the mound is the play here.  They should have no problem winning by at least 2 runs against the Boston Red Sox due to their huge edge on the mound.  Verlander is 18-9 with a 2.56 ERA in 36 starts this year.  He is also 4-2 with a 1.83 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Red Sox.  David Price is 0-9 with a 6.16 ERA in 11 lifetime starts in the postseason.  He has yielded 7 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in his 2 postseason starts in 2018.  Expect Price to get shelled once again by this hungry Houston lineup ready to break out.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

6* Red Sox/Astros ALCS *CA$H COW* on Boston +139 

The Key: Rick Porcello came up big in Game 4 to close out the New York Yankees in the ALDS.  He pitched 5 innings of 4-hit ball while allowing only one earned run without a walk to earn the victory.  Porcello has been at his best not he road this season at 11-3 with a 3.76 ERA in 19 road starts.  Charlie Morton hasn’t pitched since September 30th, and now he has to step into this pressure-packed situation with the Astros needing a victory nearly 3 weeks since throwing his last meaningful pitch.  It’s a tough spot for Morton and I’ll gladly fade him.  Morton has yielded 8 earned runs, 19 base runners and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings across 2 starts against Boston this season for a 6.97 ERA.  The Red Sox are 21-5 off a win by 6 runs or more this season.  The Red Sox are 6-1 in Porcello’s last 7 starts.  Take Boston. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland Cavaliers +13 

The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with the Cavs without Lebron James.  That’s why we will see some inflated numbers early in the season with them, and this is one of them.  But the Cavs have some nice chemistry with Tryonn Lue entering his 4th year, and still plenty of talent with Kevin Love and company to remain competitive in the weak East.  The Raptors are going through a system change with first-year head coach Nick Nurse, and they have to try and figure out how to make this new offense work now that leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is gone.  I think it will take some time before the Raptors are hitting on all cylinders, so they shouldn’t be laying 13 points to the Cavs in the opener.  Take Cleveland. 

7* MLB Postseason Game of the Year on Los Angeles Dodgers -145 

The Key: The Dodgers need a victory in Game 4 tonight at home to square this series.  I think they get it thanks to their edge on the mound.  Rich Hill comes in 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Hill is 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 8 lifetime starts against the Brewers, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 2 starts against them in 2018.  His teams have gone 7-1 in those 8 starts.  Gio Gonzalez only pitched 2 innings in Game 1 and the Brewers nearly blew a big lead late giving up 4 runs in the final 2 innings.  The Dodgers have had the luxury of seeing all of Milwaukee’s relievers now through 3 games.  I think they’ll have some success today against Milwaukee when they turn to their bullpen after Gonzalez exits.  The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 9-1 in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Dodgers are 6-0 in Hill’s last 6 starts.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* 76ers/Celtics *Total* Annihilator on OVER 210 

The Key: The 76ers were one of the best offensive teams in the Eastern Conference last season in averaging 110 PPG.  They are loaded again and don’t put nearly as much emphasis on the defensive end. The Celtics had to play more defense last year because they were without their best 2 scores for much of the season in Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, especially in the playoffs.  But with Irving and Hayward back this should be one of the best offensive teams in the East.  And Irving doesn’t play much defense.  The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Boston.  The OVER is 6-1 in 76ers last 7 road games.  Take the OVER. 

7* 49ers/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -9 

The Key: The Packers are 2-0-1 at home this season.  The last time they were at home they blew out the Bills 22-0.  And they’ll be hungry for a victory today after giving the game away against Detroit last week in a 23-31 road loss.  They outgained the Lions by 257 yards in that game a week after outgaining the Bills by 276 yards.  But they missed out on 10 possible points from kicker Mason Crosby and lost he turnover battle 3-0.  The 49ers just lost by 10 at home to the lowly Cardinals of all teams last week.  The 49ers are now 1-12 in games in which Jimmy G doesn’t start over the last 2 seasons, and most of those losses can be attributed to the inept CJ Beathard.  It doesn’t help that the 49ers have all kinds of injuries at receiver and along the offensive line as well.  I don’t expect them to be able to stay within double-digits of the Packers tonight.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 October games.  The Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 October games.  The Packers are 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the 49ers.  Take Green Bay. 

6* Brewers/Dodgers NLCS *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -170 

The Key: Walker Buehler has been lights out at home this season for the Dodgers.  He is 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 12 home starts this year.  He faced the Brewers at home back in late-July and yielded just one earned run in 7 innings.  Jhoulys Chacin faced the Dodgers in LA back in early-August and gave up 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-21 loss.  The Dodgers have the superior starter on the mound in this one.  The Dodgers are 9-0 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Rams/Broncos Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on UNDER 51.5 

The Key: Weather reports in Denver are calling for snow and below 30 degree temperatures today.  I think we see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley and the Broncos running back by committee in this one.  Don’t expect Jared Goff and Case Keenum to be asked to do too much in these conditions.  Denver is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games coming in.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Rams lsat 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the UNDER. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +2 

The Key: Big Ben and the Steelers own the Bengals and should not be underdogs in this AFC North battle.  Especially not since they need the win more trailing the Bengals by 1.5 games right now.  The Steelers have won 6 straight meetings with the Bengals.  They are 8-1 in their last 9 trips to Cincinnati as well.  And Big Ben is 25-4-1 in the state of Ohio in his career.  The Bengals just don’t match up well with the Steelers at all, and they are very fortunate to be 4-1 this season.  They get a dose of reality Sunday.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Bucs/Falcons NFC South *CA$H COW* on OVER 57 

The Key: It’s well documented that the Falcons have the worst injuries on defense of any team in the NFL this season.  They are without 4 starters right now in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, Grady Jarrett and Ricardo Allen.  Those are arguably their 4 best players on defense, too.  So it’s no surprise they are playing in shootouts week after week.  The OVER is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games overall with combined scores of 55, 80, 73 and 58 points.  Their defense has allowed 43, 37 and 41 points the last 3 weeks.  Now we’re seeing a total of 57, which would normally be high for most teams, but not the Falcons.  They have an elite offense that has scored 31 or more points 3 of the last 4 weeks.  And they’re up against a Bucs defense that is allowing 34.7 PPG and 446 YPG this season.  The Bucs have been great on offense though, putting up 28 PPG and 433 YPG.  And now Jameis Winston is ready to lead the offense off a bye.  The Bucs and Falcons have combined for 54 or more points in 3 of their last 4 meetings.  Atlanta is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games with a total of 49.5 or higher.  Take the OVER. 

6* Astros/Red Sox ALCS *Total* Annihilator on OVER 7 

The Key: I think Justin Verlander and Chris Sale are getting too much respect from the books here.  And the books aren’t giving these offenses enough credit.  It is the offenses that have led these teams to where they are today.  These are the two best offenses in the American League.  A total of 7 is simply too low for these two offenses in a hitter-friendly place like Fenway Park.  Sale has yielded 15 earned runs in 18 innings in his last 3 starts against the Astros.  The OVER is 3-0 in Sale’s last 3 starts against the Astros.  The OVER is 3-0 in Verlander’s last 3 starts against the Red Sox.  Take the OVER.

6* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +7 

The Key: Ole Miss has been embarrassed when stepping up in class.  They lost 7-62 at home to Alabama and 16-45 at LSU for their two losses this season.  Arkansas played Alabama last week and only lost 31-65, actually gaining over 400 yards on that Alabama defense.  Ole Miss was held to just 248 yards against Alabama.  Arkansas has an improved defense that held Auburn to 225 total yards three weeks ago and Texas A&M to 24 points and 377 total yards two weeks ago.  No question the Razorbacks are battle-tested now and won’t be phased by this Ole Miss offense.  And the Razorbacks are primed for their biggest offensive output of the season against an Ole Miss defense that has been shredded for 35.5 PPG and 504 YPG this season.  The Rebels should not be TD road favorites here Saturday with that leaky of a defense.  Ole Miss is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons.  Arkansas is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games following 3 or more consecutive losses.  The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings with the Rebels, and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Arkansas. 

6* Michigan State/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State +13.5 

The Key: This is the preferred role when backing the Michigan State Spartans.  Not the role they’ve been in the last few weeks as double-digit favorites as they’ve failed to live up to expectations.  But the underdog role where Mark Dantonio thrives.  Penn State is reeling from the loss to Ohio State and could suffer a hangover, similar to last year when they were upset in East Lansing by the Spartans.  Penn State is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 home games off a home loss to a conference opponent.  The Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.  The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Michigan State.

6* UCF/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +5 

The Key: UCF has benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country.  Their 5 wins have come against UConn, South Carolina State, FAU, Pitt and SMU with 4 of those games at home.  They haven’t been on the road since August 30th against UConn.  This will easily be their toughest game of the season here at Memphis, which is 4-0 at home this season and winning by 36.8 PPG on average.  The Tigers want revenge from their 62-55 (OT) loss to UCF in the AAC title game last year.  Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus PPG.  The Tigers have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a great atmosphere Saturday with nationally ranked UCF coming to town.  Take Memphis. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Florida -7 

The Key: Many would expect Florida to have a letdown after their big 27-19 win over LSU last week.  However, the Gators have a bye on deck next week, so that kind of trumps that theory.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a win here against Vanderbilt knowing that they have next week off.  Florida is 25-1 SU in its last 26 meetings with Vanderbilt, including 13-0 in its last 13 trips to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have been awful in their last 3 games.  They lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina, barely beat Tennessee State 31-27 as 28.5-point home favorites, and lost 13-41 at Georgia.  They have come back down to reality after a fast start to the season against weak competition.  The Gators have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with wins by 38 over Colorado State, by 26 at Tennessee, by 7 at Mississippi State and by 8 at home over LSU.  They continue rolling Saturday.  Take Florida. 

6* Oklahoma State/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +7 

The Key: Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State are having down seasons.  Kansas State is 2-4 and in need of a victory after losing 3 straight.  They lost by 5 at home to Texas and by 3 at Baylor the last 2 weeks.  They are clearly hungry for a win and I think they have a good shot to get one Saturday at home against the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State has lost by 24 at home to Texas Tech and by 6 at home to Iowa State in two of the last three weeks with a 20-point win at Kansas in between.  And this has really been a tight series in recent meetings.  4 of the lsat 5 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  Oklahoma State hasn’t beaten Kansas State by more than 7 points in any of the last 7 meetings.  That’s a 7-0 angle backing the Wildcats.  Take Kansas State. 

7* Arizona/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona +14 

The Key: Utah is getting too much respect from its 40-21 win at Stanford last week.  The Cardinal were gassed in that game as they were playing a 3rd straight tough game after facing Oregon and Notre Dame the previous two weeks.  The Utes took advantage.  But now they’ll laying two touchdowns to the Arizona Wildcats, who have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming 20-24 to USC.  Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Arizona have been decided by 14 points or fewer.  The Wildcats can hang here, especially since the Utes have an underwhelming offense that makes it tough for them to win by a margin.  Take Arizona. 

7* PHI/NY NFC East Game of the Month on New York +3 

The Key: Despite being 1-4, the Giants are actually just one game out of first place in the NFC East.  It’s been a bad division and the Giants at least still feel like they’re in it.  So they won’t be giving up on their season any time soon.  And they showed a lot of heart by coming back from 17-3 down to actually take a lead in Carolina on Sunday.  But they lost 31-33 on a 63-yard field goal.  The Giants will be hungry to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles tonight.  The Eagles are getting everyone’s best shot, and they aren’t handling it too well.  They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games with their only win coming 20-16 over the Colts.  They are two goal-line stands away from being 0-5.  They have injuries everywhere, especially on offense that are holding them back.  And the Super Bowl hangover just appears to be real with this squad.  They should not be 3-point road favorites over the Giants this week.  Thursday NFL home teams are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It’s a huge advantage to play at home on a short week.  The Giants are 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Take New York. 

6* Texas Tech/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU -7 

The Key: TCU has won 3 of its last 4 meetings with Texas Tech, including last year’s 27-3 victory as 6.5-point road favorites.  Now they are only 7-point home favorites this time around.  And TCU’s only two losses this season have come on a neutral to Ohio State and on the road to Texas, two of the best teams in the country.  Texas Tech lost by 8 at home to West Virginia and by 20 on a neutral to Ole Miss.  I believe TCU is the best team that they’ve faced yet.  And the Red Raiders have quarterback injury problems right now with both Bowman (lung) and Carter (ankle) highly questionable tonight.  They could be down to their third-stringer.  Either way, TCU has one of the best defenses in the country and will shut them down just as they did last year.  Gary Patterson is 14-3 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU.  Take TCU. 

6* Red Sox/Yankees AL *CA$H COW* on New York -120 

The Key: C.C. Sabathia is 6-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 home starts this year.  He has delivered time and time again when the Yankees have needed him most.  He is even 6-0 with a 3.32 ERA in ALDS play lifetime and thrives in these spots.  I trust him a lot more than Rick Porcello, who is 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA in 12 outings in the postseason, still in search of his first victory.  He is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in 4 playoff appearances with the Red Sox.  Take New York. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +10.5 

The Key: This spread has gotten out of control with Appalachian State laying double-digits on the road against a Sun Belt power in Arkansas State that has won 5 titles in the past 6 seasons.  This one is all about strength of schedule for me.  App State has played a very weak schedule with three cupcakes and only one tough game at Penn State, which was back in Week 1.  Arkansas State has played 4 games already against solid programs in Alabama, Tulsa, UNLV and Georgia Southern.  I expect the Red Wolves to play the underdog card up tonight and be extra hungry for a victory.  They are 1-4 ATS this season and undervalued because of it, while App State is 4-0 ATS and overvalued.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Take Arkansas State. 

7* Redskins/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +6 

The Key: The Redskins have put up the kind of numbers this season that should make you think twice about them.  Most write them off as just a mediocre team.  But the numbers say otherwise.  They are averaging 383 yards per game on offense while giving up a mere 278 yards per game on defense.  They are gaining 5.9 yards per play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards per play on defense.  You won’t find many teams that can claim having anything close to that good of numbers thus far.  And now the Redskins are fresh because they had a bye last week.  The Saints lost outright to the Bucs at home and beat the Browns by a field goal in their two home games this season.  I can’t see them winning this game by a touchdown or more against the Redskins, who are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Saints.  Take Washington. 

6* Dodgers/Braves NL *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -148 

The Key: This all comes down to the fact that Rich Hill has dominated the Braves throughout his career, while Mike Foltynewicz has struggled mightily against the Dodgers.  Hill has never lost to the Braves, going 5-0 with a. 1.76 ERA in 7 lifetime starts against them.  Foltynewicz sports a 7.43 ERA in his 3 lifetime starts against the Dodgers while yielding 11 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings.  The Dodgers clinch the series with a victory in Game 4 tonight.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3 

The Key: The Falcons and Steelers are two similar teams in that they both have great offenses and suspect defenses.  But the Steelers can get stops, and I’m not sure the Falcons can due to all their injuries right now.  The Falcons are without 4 starters in D in S Keanu Neal, LB Deion Jones, S Ricardo Allen and DT Grady Jarrett.  Top pass rusher Vic Beasley is also questionable with an ankle injury.  The Falcons have given up 43 points to the Saints and 37 to the Bengals in consecutive weeks.  Ben Roethlisberger and company should have their way with this Atlanta defense too.  Pittsburgh is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division foe as a favorite.  It is coming back to win by 9.7 points per game in this situation.  Take Pittsburgh.