7* Cavaliers/Hawks Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta PK

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have gone 40-7 at home this season.  Yet, the oddsmakers aren't giving them any respect here as they aren't even favored against the Cavaliers.  That's the same Cavaliers team that they have gone 3-1 against this season with all three wins coming by 8-plus points.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Atlanta has owned Cleveland at home here of late, going 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Take Atlanta.

7* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -10

The Key: The Golden State Warriors have a huge edge in the rest department in Game 1 tonight.  They come in on three days' rest since taking out the Grizzlies in six games.  The Rockets only come in on one days' rest after storming back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers.  There's no question that this will be an advantage for the Warriors, who catch the Rockets emotionally and physically drained.  Golden State beat Memphis 101-86 at home in Game 1 last series, and I look for a similar result in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.  The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven when playing on three or more days of rest.  The Warriors are 9-1 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Take Golden State.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Baltimore Orioles -125

The Key: This is the ultimate Mound Mismatch tonight when the Baltimore Orioles host the Seattle Mariners.  Yet, we are getting the Orioles at a very generous -125 price tonight.  Miguel Gonzalez has been one of the best starters in the AL this season.  He has gone 4-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in seven starts, including 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in four home starts.  Taijuan Walker somehow has held on to a spot in Seattle's rotation despite being awful.  Walker is 1-4 with a 7.22 ERA and 1.723 WHIP in seven starts, including 1-3 with a 10.91 ERA and 2.193 WHIP in four road starts.  Baltimore is 9-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  Seattle is 1-9 (-9.9 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season.  Take Baltimore.

7* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins -121

The Key: I like to back teams that make managerial or coaching changes in that first game.  These changes usually provide a spark for teams, which is exactly what the Marlins need after losing six of their last seven to drop to 16-22 on the season.  They do at least get to face a struggling Arizona Diamondbacks team that has lost four straight and seven of nine overall.  General manager Dan Jennings will be taking over for the fired Mike Redmond.  He'll watch Dan Haren take the mound tonight and continue his solid season up to this point.  Haren is 4-2 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in seven starts, including 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in three home starts.  He'll be opposed by Rubby De La Rosa, who is 4-2 with a 4.50 ERA on the season, but only 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in three road starts.  Haren is 5-2 with a 3.63 ERA in seven lifetime starts versus Arizona.  Miami is 11-2 (+10.3 Units) against the money line after a game without an extra base hit over the last 2 seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 12-40 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take Miami.

7* Clippers/Rockets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -2

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers showed their resiliency in the opening round.  They had the toughest opening round opponent in the San Antonio Spurs, and found themselves down 3-2 facing a road game in Game 6.  They went into San Antonio and won, and then they finished off the series with an exciting home win in Game 7.  While they let Game 6 slip away in this series, I fully expect them to respond in Game 7 with a road win at Houston.  Plays on road favorites playing with double revenge after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points are 57-24 ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites who give up 99 or more points per game after allowing 55 or more points in the first half of two straight games are 45-14 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Los Angeles.

6* National League *NEVER LOST* CA$H COW on Chicago Cubs -125

The Key: The Chicago Cubs are absolutely rolling right now having won six straight games entering this contest Sunday.  Yet, the oddsmakers continue to undervalue them in listing them as mere -125 home favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  I'll take advantage and back them with the steady Jake Arrieta on the mound.  Arrieta is coming off a career year in 2014, and he has started 2015 brilliantly as well.  The right-hander is 4-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in seven starts this year, including 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in four home starts.  Arrieta has never lost to the Pirates, going 4-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five career starts against them.  His teams are 5-0 in those contests.  Take Chicago.

7* MLB *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland A's -157

The Key: The Oakland A's have been struggling, having lost eight of their last nine games overall.  However, they have been pretty unlucky this season with so many close losses.  In fact, eight of their last 11 losses have come by exactly one run.  They clearly aren't as bad as their record would indicate, and they certainly will be motivated for a win tonight.  Chicago has won 5 of its last 6, but that run comes to an end tonight.  John Danks is 1-3 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in six starts for Chicago, including 0-3 with a 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in three road starts.  He'll be opposed by Jesse Chavez, who has posted a 2.56 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in four starts and four relief appearances for the A's.  Chicago is 1-11 (-10.7 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.  The White Sox are 1-7 in Danks' last 8 road starts.  The A's are 9-1 in Chavez's last 10 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take Oakland.

7* Warriors/Grizzlies Game 6 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 194

The Key: The UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in this series, yet the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for it.  The first total of this series was 196 points, and the total for Game 6 is only 194 points.  I still believe there's a ton of value here on the UNDER considering these teams haven't combined for more than 188 points in any game yet.  They have averaged just 184.6 combined points per game in the series, which is still nearly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.  Plus, this game will be played in Memphis, and that means the Grizzlies will likely control the tempo as they love to play a half-court game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Warriors L6 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 Conference Semifinals games.  The UNDER is 24-2 in Grizzllies last 26 home games.  Take this combined 36-2 system backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

6* American League *Mound Mismatch* on Texas Rangers -118

The Key: Wandy Rodriquez appears to have revived his career in Texas this season.  He has been nothing short of spectacular up to this point, going 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in four starts.  He'll be opposed by Bruce Chen, who sports a 13.50 ERA and 2.750 WHIP in just one start.  Chen doesn't even belong in the big leagues.  He gave up 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings of a 4-7 loss to Minnesota in his first start of 2015.  Plus, Chen is 2-3 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.774 WHIP in six lifetime starts versus Texas.  The Indians are 1-10 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Cleveland is 0-7 in its last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in its previous game.  Take Texas.

7* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Bulls UNDER 192

The Key: The over has gone 3-1 in the last four games in this series.  That has provided us with ample value on the UNDER tonight.  Games in Chicago have been much lower-scoring than games in Cleveland, simply because Chicago controls the tempo when playing at home, and it likes to play at a slower pace.  These teams have averaged 182.5 combined points per game in the two meetings in Chicago this series.  In an elimination game, the intensity will be high for both teams, especially on the defensive end of the floor.  The Bulls are 33-23 UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season.  Chicago is 11-3 UNDER after covering 5 or 6 of its last 7 games this season.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Cavs last 5 road games.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Cavs last 51 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  Take the UNDER.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on New York Yankees -120

The Key: After losing the past two games to the Rays over the last two days by a combined 3 runs, I look for the New York Yankees to come out motivated for a victory tonight.  I like them to get the win due to their huge advantage on the mound.  Chase Whitley has been a pleasant surprise for the Yankees this season, going 1-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in three starts.  That includes a start against Tampa Bay on April 28th in which he allowed just one earned run over 5 innings in a 4-2 victory.  He'll be opposed by Erasmo Ramirez, who is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.554 WHIP in 2015.  Ramirez has allowed 18 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings of work this season.  The Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  New York is 7-1 in its last 8 games following a loss.  The Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take this combined 22-2 angle backing the Yankees straight to the bank tonight.  Take New York.

7* Grizzlies/Warriors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis +9.5

The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies are showing great value as nearly double-digit underdogs to the Golden State Warriors tonight in Game 5.  This line is clearly an overreaction from Golden State winning Game 4 by 17 points in Memphis.  The Grizzlies had their worst shooting game of the series at 37.5% in that contest to essentially give it away.  I look for them to get back up into the 45% range in Game 5, where they have been most of the series.  The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  Memphis is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  Golden State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Warriors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.  Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games.  Take Memphis.

6* American League *Mound Mismatch* on Baltimore Orioles -120

The Key: This play certainly lives up to its title as the Baltimore Orioles have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  They will give the ball to Miguel Gonzalez, who is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in six starts, including 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in three home starts.  What I really like is the fact that Gonzalez is 6-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Toronto.  Rookie Aaron Sanchez is 3-2 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in six starts this year, including 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in three road starts.  Sanchez has faced the Orioles twice already in 2015, coming away with a 5.20 ERA and 2.079 WHIP.  The Orioles are 12-1 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.  Take Baltimore.

7* Clippers/Rockets Game 5 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 219

The Key: With the OVER being 4-0 through the first four games of this series, I believe there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in Game 5.  It's clear that the hack-a-Jordan has not worked for the Rockets, and I expect them to go away from it tonight, which will aid the under.  They just cannot afford to have so many guys in foul trouble as it has continued to haunt them in the second half of most of these games.  This 219-point total is seven points higher than Game 1's 212-point total, which alone shows that there is value with the UNDER.  Plays on the UNDER on teams where the total is greater than 210 (Clippers) - after a win by 10 pints or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 or more in two straight games are 41-10 (80.4%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* AL *NEVER LOST* CA$H COW on Tampa Bay Rays -125

The Key: After getting embarrassed 5-11 by the Yankees last night and losing their second straight game, I look for the Tampa Bay Rays to be motivated for a win tonight.  They should have an excellent chance of getting one with ace Chris Archer on the mound.  Archer has been one of the best pitchers in the AL this season.  He has gone 3-4 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.008 WHIP with 50 strikeouts over 41 2/3 innings.  What I really love is the fact that Archer has never lost to the Yankees.  He is 5-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in six lifetime starts, and the Rays are 6-0 in those outings.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Warriors/Grizzlies Game 4 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 196

The Key: The reason the Memphis Grizzlies have a 2-1 series lead is because they have forced the Golden State Warriors to play at their pace both home and away.  They have combined for 187, 187 and 188 points as the UNDER is 3-0 in the first three games in this series.  I look for more of the same in Game 4 with the Grizzlies controlling the tempo playing at home.  Memphis is 25-8 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  The UNDER is 23-3 in Grizzlies last 26 home games.  Take the UNDER.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+100)

The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates are feeling good about themselves after taking two out of three from the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend.  I look for that series to springboard them going forward as they now take on arguably the worst team in baseball in the Philadelphia Phillies (11-21).  The Phillies are only hitting .228 and scoring 2.8 runs per game this season, and it won't get any easier against Pittsburgh ace Gerrit Cole.  The right-hander has gone 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in six starts, including 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in three road starts.  Cole is 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA in two career starts against Philadelphia.  He'll be opposed by Jerome Williams, who is 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.606 WHIP in six starts.  Williams is 1-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in six career starts against Pittsburgh.  Take Pittsburgh on the Run Line.

6* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-108)

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers have a massive advantage on the mound today.  They'll give the ball to 2014 NL Cy Young and MVP winner, Clayton Kershaw.  The left-hander is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 2015 over six starts.  Kershaw is 14-5 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 27 lifetime starts versus Colorado.  The Dodgers have won each of Kershaw's last 6 starts against the Rockies all by 2 runs or more with finals of 7-3, 9-0, 8-0, 6-1, 11-0, and 10-8.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs over 34 innings in his last 5 starts against the Rockies for a minuscule 0.53 ERA.  Jorge De La Rosa is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP through three starts this season, and 5-10 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in 17 lifetime starts versus Los Angeles.  Kershaw is 20-3 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since 1997, winning by an average of 3.2 runs per game.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Cavaliers/Bulls Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -2.5

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a must-win situation tonight in Chicago.  Lebron James tends to play his best games with his back against the wall, and I look for him to lead the Cavs to victory in Game 4 tonight to avoid falling to 1-3 in this series.  The Cavs caught a break when Pau Gasol injured his hamstring in Game 3, putting his status for Game 4 in question.  Chicago is 23-43 ATS in its last 66 home games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.  Following a Game 1 loss, they responded with a 15-point victory in Game 2.  Expect more of the same today.  Take Cleveland.

7* Hawks/Wizards Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks smell blood in the water.  They took advantage of John Wall being out in Game 2 and ran away with a 106-90 victory.  I believe another blowout victory is in store in Game 3 with the Wizards expected to be without Wall again.  There may not be one player more important to their team than Wall, who runs the show offensively while putting up huge assists numbers up to this point in the playoffs.  The Wizards are 4-21-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.  Washington is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Take Atlanta.

7* Cavs/Bulls Game 3 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 195.5

The Key: This is the highest total set yet in this series between the Cavs and Bulls.  That's because they are coming off and OVER in Game 2 where they combined for 197 points as the Cavs put up 106 and shot 12 of 26 from 3-point range.  I look for Game 3 to be much lower scoring, and the fact that this is the highest total yet in the series signifies some line value here with the UNDER.  Chicago doesn't want to get in a track meet, and it will control the tempo playing at home this time around.  Chicago is 16-5 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Cavs last 30 Conference Semifinals games.  The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Cavs last 61 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven games off a S.U. loss.  Take the UNDER.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Indians -132

The Key: The Minnesota Twins are playing well right now having won seven of their last eight games overall.  However, this recent stretch of solid play has all come at home, and it also has them overvalued here as they hit the road for the first time since April 26th.  I'll back the Indians at home, who are hungry for a win after a slow 10-17 start to the season.  I'll also back them because of starting pitcher Trevor Bauer, who is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings in 2015.  He is quickly cementing himself as a reliable starter on this staff.  Minnesota is 15-42 (-23.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons.  The Twins are 4-11 in Pelfrey's last 15 road starts.  Cleveland is 11-5 in Bauer's last 16 home starts.  The Indians are 52-23 in their last 75 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take Cleveland.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore Orioles +122

The Key: I'll back the Baltimore Orioles against the New York Yankees tonight at a generous price.  The Orioles will be motivated following two straight losses.  They will turn to their ace in Chris Tillman to get back on track tonight.  Tillman is coming off a great year, but he hasn't been up to par early, which has him undervalued.  He had one bad start against Toronto that has inflated his numbers, otherwise he's been solid.  Nathan Eovaldi sports a 3.81 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in five starts for the Yankees.  He simply allows too many base runners to be effective.  Eovaldi has really struggled in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, posting a 6.52 ERA and 1.656 WHIP in two starts there.  Tillman s 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA in his last five starts against New York, giving up 8 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings.  The Orioles are 24-6 in Tillman's last 30 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  Tillman is 8-0 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 21-7 in Tillman's last 28 starts during Game 1 of a series.  Take Baltimore.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Key: The Houston Rockets know they let a golden opportunity slip away in Game 1 by not showing up with the effort they needed to beat the Clippers without Chris Paul.  The Clippers are expected to be without Paul again, so don't expect the same lackluster effort from the Rockets as they look to avoid dropping to 0-2.  The Rockets have been tremendous in this situation all season where they are coming off a bad performance and time and time again bounce back.  Houston is 12-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by 10.7 points per game.  Houston is 7-0 ATS off an upset by 10 points or more as a favorite, winning by 12.7 points per game.  The Rockets are also 10-1 ATS off a home loss this season.  Take this combined 29-2 system backing Houston straight to the bank tonight.  Take Houston.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on San Diego Padres +129

The Key: After getting shut out the past two days against the Giants by a combined 0-8 score, there's no question that the San Diego Padres are going to come out with an inspired effort Wednesday to avoid the sweep and to put some runs on the board.  We are getting them at an excellent price here as big road underdogs.  Ian Kennedy owns San Francisco, going 9-4 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in 21 career starts against the Giants.  Chris Heston has performed well in the early going in 2015, but he's being overvalued because of it.  The Padres are 12-4 in their last 16 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Take San Diego.

7* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -6

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks shot a measly 37.8% in Game 1 against the Washington Wizards and still had a chance to win in the end.  They shoot 46.3% as a team and 47.0% at home, so that was clearly a down game for them offensively.  I expect them to make those open shots tonight in a crucial Game 2.  I also expect the Wizards to suffer a letdown after taking Game 1 to gain home-court advantage in this series.  The Wizards aren't at full strength right now, either, as stud guards John Wall and Bradley Beal are both banged up.  Atlanta is 38-7 at home this season, winning by 8.1 points per game.  The Hawks are 10-0 ATS when revenging two straight losses where their opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  Take Atlanta.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Boston Red Sox -115

The Key: Off four straight losses, the Boston Red Sox clearly won't be lacking any motivation tonight when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays.  Rick Porcello got off to a rough start this season, but he's coming off his best start of 2015.  He allowed just one earned run and four base runners over 7 innings of a 4-1 home victory over the potent Toronto Blue Jays on April 29th.  Porcello is 3-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in seven career starts against Tampa Bay.  The Rays are 10-22 in their last 32 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Drew Smyly is 3-10 (-9.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Take Boston.

7* Bulls/Cavaliers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago Bulls +5

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to have to deal with being without Kevin Love for the rest of the postseason.  They clearly aren't as strong of a team without him.  I believe they are extremely vulnerable now, and that will show in Game 1 against the Chicago Bulls.  Cleveland hasn't played since April 26th and it will be rusty, while Chicago played last on April 30th, getting just about the perfect amount of rest in between series.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams that score 103+ points/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Bulls are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Cleveland.  Take Chicago.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -118

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays are showing excellent value today as small home favorites over the New York Yankees.  This is a huge letdown spot for New York, which is coming off a 3-0 series sweep against its hated rival in the Boston Red Sox.  R.A. Dickey loves facing the Yankees as he's gone 4-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against them.  Chase Whitley has struggled mightily against the potent Blue Jays, going 1-1 with a 10.80 ERA in two lifetime starts against them.  The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take Toronto.

6* Grizzlies/Warriors Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Memphis +10

The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies get the nod Sunday as double-digit underdogs to the Golden State Warriors in Game 1.  I really believe the Warriors are overvalued because they had the best record in the NBA this season, and they are the #1 seed.  It's not easy to beat anyone in the playoffs by double-digits, and the Grizzlies know they need to steal Game 1 if they want to have a chance in this series.  The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.  That's an 18-0 system backing the Grizzlies.  Take Memphis.

7* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -138

The Key: I'll back Michael Wacha and the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals, who have won five straight games entering Sunday.  Wacha is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in four starts in 2015.  He's up against Pittsburgh's Vance Worley, who is 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in four starts, including 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA in two road starts.  Wacha is 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. Pittsburgh.  Worley sports a 4.96 ERA and 1.776 WHIP three career starts against St. Louis.  The Cardinals are 23-4 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 straight games with no home runs over the last 2 seasons. Take St. Louis.

7* Spurs/Clippers Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Clippers -2.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers have outplayed the Spurs in this series.  They barely lost Game 2 and Game 5 and could have easily won both had the ball bounced their way.  I love the resiliency they've shown in Game 4 and Game 6 victories with their backs against the wall on the road.  I look for them to take care of business at home in Game 7 and finish off the defending champs.  Take Los Angeles.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Washington Nationals -118

The Key: The Washington Nationals will bounce back following a 4-0 loss to the Mets yesterday.  Gio Gonzalez loves facing the Mets as he's 7-4 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.069 WHIP in 13 career starts against them.  Jon Niese has allowed 13 runs in 17 innings in his last three starts against Washington.  The  Mets are 19-44 as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last three years.  New York is 2-7 in Niese's last nine starts as a dog.  Take Washington.

7* Hawks/Nets Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -3.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have let the Nets hang around in this series.  After a huge Game 5 victory, I have not doubt they close them out in Game 6 with a win and cover.  They dominated from start to finish in Game 5 and they'll do the same in Game 6.  Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games are 93-56 (62.4%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Hawks Friday.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati Reds -114.

The Key: The Cincinnati Reds have fought their way back to 11-11 on the season.  They will win and cover this small number Friday.  I'll back the Reds behind Anthony Descalfini, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA and 0.769 WHIP in four starts in 2015.  Descalfini is up against Trevor Cahill, who is 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA and 2.028 WHIP in four starts this season.  The Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Atlanta is 3-13 in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Cincinnati.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Chicago White Sox -159

The Key: The Chicago White Sox send ace Chris Sale to the mound tonight.  All he does is dominate the opposition as he has put up Cy Young-caliber numbers ever since he became a starter in the majors.  Sale is at it again in 2015, going 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in three starts.  He'll face Trevor May, who is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in three starts for Minnesota.  Sale loves facing the Twins, going 7-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in nine career starts against them.  The White Sox are 8-1 in those nine starts.  May sports a 4.91 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Chicago.  Minnesota is 7-34 (-25.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons.  The White Sox are 17-4 in Sale's last 21 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  Take Chicago.

7* Bulls/Bucks Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3.5

The Key: After losing the last two games of this series narrowly, I look for the Chicago Bulls to put away the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 6.  They are the superior team and have experience in these situations, and I look for that experience to come in handy here.  Milwaukee is 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season.   The Bucks are 0-8 ATS off a road win against a division rival over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.  Chicago is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to Milwaukee.  Take Chicago.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Miami Marlins +101

The Key: After a tough 3-11 start, the Miami Marlins have finally started to play up to their potential over the past week.  Indeed, they have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall, and I look for them to continue to play well tonight.  The Mets couldn't possibly be more overvalued right now due to their hot 15-6 start.  They aren't as good as their record, and they shouldn't be favored tonight.  Mat Latos has rebounded nicely in his last three starts, allowing exactly two earned runs in all three.  Bartolo Colon is off to a great start this season, but like the Mets, he is being overvalued.  Latos has posted a 2.63 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in nine career starts against New York.  In his last three starts against the Mets, Latos has only allowed 3 earned runs in 18 innings.  The Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.   The Marlins are 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog.  Take Miami.

7* Nets/Hawks Game 5 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 200.5

The Key: Prior to the Nets' 120-115 (OT) win over the Hawks in Game 4, this was a very low scoring series.  They had combined for 191 points in Game 1, 187 in Game 2 and 174 in Game 3.  I look for Game 5 to be played more like the first three games rather than Game 4 with what's at stake with this series tied 2-2.  There's no doubt both teams will be laying it on the line defensively to get a win.  Brooklyn is 12-2 UNDER in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 14-5 in Nets last 19 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 conference quarterfinal games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Mavericks/Rockets Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +7

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks showed a lot of heart in winning Game 4 to extend this series after falling behind 3-0.  They aren't about to give in now.  Just like the Bucks did last night against the Bulls in winning two straight following a 3-0 deficit, I look for the Mavericks to give the Rockets a run for their money in Game 5 and likely pull off the upset.  They were at least competitive in their two trips to Houston, losing by 10 and 12 points.  They shot 44.4% in Game 1 and 37.1% in Game 2, and I just cannot see them shooting that poorly again.  They shot 52.3% in Game 3 and 54.3% in Game 4, so they have clearly figured something out against this Houston defense.  Plays on poor defensive road teams that allow 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more two straight games are 53-25 (67.9%) ATS since 1996.  Take Dallas.

6* AL West *CA$H COW* on Seattle Mariners -113

The Key: This one is pretty self-explanatory.  The Seattle Mariners have a huge advantage on the mound tonight, and we're getting them at a great price.  J.A. Happ has really resurrected his career over the past couple seasons.  The left-hander is 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in three starts this season for the Mariners.  In his last two starts against Texas, he has allowed just 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 13 innings.  Ross Detwiler is 0-2 with a 10.95 ERA and 2.514 WHIP in three starts in 2015, allowing 15 earned runs, 5 homers and 31 base runners in 12 1/3 innings.  One of those starts came against Seattle on April 19th, whe he gave up 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 2 2/3 innings before getting pulled.  The Rangers are 13-38 in their last 51 games as a home underdog.  The Mariners are 16-5 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Take Seattle.

6* AL Central *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Indians -128

The Key: The Cleveland Indians have dropped three straight games coming into this Game 2 Tuesday against the Kansas City Royals.  With the advantage they have on the mound in this one, I expect them to put an end to this skid.  Trevor Bauer has been one of the best starters in the big leagues in the early going.  He's 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 1.000 WHIP with 26 K's in 19 innings.  The Indians should tee off on Jeremy Guthrie, who is 1-1 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in three starts for Kansas City.  Guthrie is 5-5 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 11 lifetime starts against Cleveland.  He went 1-2 with an 8.44 ERA in three starts against the Indians last year, allowing 15 earned runs and 31 hits in 16 innings.  Cleveland is 12-1 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 3 seasons.  The Indians are 10-4 in Bauer's last 14 home starts.  Take Cleveland.

6* Astros/Padres Interleague "Bailout" on San Diego -109

The Key: The Houston Astros are overvalued right now due to having won seven of their last eight games overall.  I know that Collin McHugh is an underrated starter in this league, but he's being overvalued here as well.  I'll back the San Diego Padres at an excellent price at home tonight as they'll be the more motivated team after having lost four of their last five coming in.  James Shields is living up to his massive contract signed this offseason.  The Padres' ace is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.120 WHIP with 29 strikeouts in 25 innings.  Shields has owned the Astros, going 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in four lifetime starts against them.  The Astros are 25-59 in their last 84 interleague games.  The Padres are 22-5 in their last 27 games as a home favorite.  The Padres are 35-16 in their last 51 home games.  The Astros are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego.  Take San Diego.

7* Hawks/Nets Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn +5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets have shown that they can play with the Atlanta Hawks, who just aren't the same team that had the best record in the East during the regular season.  The Nets have held the Hawks to 92.7 points per game on 39.0 percent shooting through the first three games of this series.  After losing by single-digits in the first two games, they got a huge Game 3 victory, and I look for them to carry that momentum into this Game 4 tonight.  Atlanta is 1-9 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Hawks are 1-11 ATS off two straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Nets have won 8 of their last 10 home games.  Take Brooklyn.

7* Rockets/Mavericks Sunday Night "Bailout" on UNDER 220.5

The Key: This number has been inflated due to one of the highest-scoring games in postseason history in Game 3 between the Mavs and Rockets.  They combined for 258 points in regulation in Game 3, which was a complete aberration based on what these teams have done lately when up against each other.  The UNDER is actually 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  They have combined for 211 or fewer points in five of those seven contests.  The total for Game 1 was 212.5, so the fact that this total in Game 4 is 220.5 shows you that there's value with the under.  Take the UNDER.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Indians -114

The Key: The Cleveland Indians have a big edge on the mound in this game against the Detroit Tigers Sunday.  I'll back them as a result at a solid price of -114.  Carlos Carrasco was one of the best starters in the league down the stretch last year, and he has carried that success over into 2015.  Carrasco is gone 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.883 WHIP in three starts with 18 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings.  He's up against Kyle Lobstein, who is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in two starts.  Lobstein has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland.  The Indians are 6-0 in Carrasco's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.  Cleveland is 5-1 in Carrasco's last 6 road starts.  The Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take Cleveland.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Baltimore Orioles -105

The Key: The Baltimore Orioles are in desperate need of a victory after losing five straight to drop to 7-10 on the season.  I expect them to bounce back today and put an end to this skid as they clearly won't be lacking any motivation.  Wei-Yin Chen continues to be one of the more underrated starters in the big leagues.  He has gone 0-1 with a 3.07 ERA through three starts in 2015.  Justin Masterson is coming off the worst season of his career, and it hasn't been any better in 2015.  He has posted a 5.74 ERA through three starts for the Red Sox.  Masterson is 6-6 with a 5.24 ERA in 13 career starts against Baltimore, while Chen is 5-4 with a 3.97 ERA in 12 career starts against Boston.  The Orioles are 22-4 in Chen's last 26 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The Orioles are 37-16 in their last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take Baltimore.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn Nets +3

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets have hung right with the Atlanta Hawks in the first two games of this series, losing by 7 and 5 points.  Now, they return home where I expect them to get back in the series with a Game 3 victory.  Atlanta is 1-8 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Hawks are 13-30 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest over the last 3 seasons.  The Hawks are 1-10 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Nets are 14-5 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season.  Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last 3 seasons.  Take Brooklyn.

7* Rockets/Mavericks Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -1

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are in a must-win situation tonight after falling behind 0-2 in this series.  I look for them to take care of business at home in Game 3 and to get right back into this series.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this Texas rivalry as the home team is now 5-1 straight up & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Mavericks are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 Conference Quarterfinals games.  The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to Dallas.  Take Dallas.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Baltimore Orioles -102

The Key: The Baltimore Orioles are highly motivated for a victory today after losing four straight games to the Toronto Blue Jays in their last series on the road.  Now, they return home, and I look for them to get the job done against the Boston Red Sox.  Miguel Gonzalez has gone 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in three starts this season to get off to a tremendous start in 2015.  Rick Porcello got big money from the Red Sox and may be the most overpaid pitcher in the game.  He hasn't lived up to expectations, going 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.474 WHIP through three starts in 2015.  Porcello is 3-6 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in 10 career starts against Baltimore, while Gonzalez is 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA in seven career starts against Boston.  The Orioles are 36-15 in their last 51 home games.  Baltimore is 21-9 in Gonzalez's last 30 home starts.  Take Baltimore.

7* Thursday NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Bucks UNDER 187

The Key: Games in the NBA playoffs tend to get more lower scoring as they go on.  That has been the case in this series as these teams scored 194 combined points in Game 1, but just 173 in Game 2.  Given the recent history of this series, I like for this game to stay well UNDER the 187-point total in Game 3.  The Bulls and Bucks have combined for 173, 194, 186, 158, 182 and 181 points in their last six meetings with the UNDER going 5-1.  That's an average of 179.0 combined points.  That means we're getting roughly 8 points of value on this UNDER based on recent history, which is a lot.  Chicago is 14-3 UNDER following two consecutive home wins.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Take the UNDER.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati Reds -104

The Key: The Milwaukee Brewers are banged up right now, which is a big reason why they own the league's worst record at 2-13. They have lost eight in a row coming in and things aren't getting any better any time soon.  That's because they are without their two best players in Carlos Gomez & Jonathan Lucroy, and they're also without starting second baseman Scooter Gennett.  The Reds have won the first three games in this series behind hot bats that have produced 24 runs, or 8.0 per game.  Kyle Lohse has been awful this season, going 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA and 1.724 WHIP while allowing 18 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings.  The Reds are 25-9 in their last 34 during game 4 of a series.  The Reds are 45-18 in their last 63 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cincinnati is 47-23 in Homer Bailey's last 70 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Milwaukee is 13-38 in its last 51 games overall. The Brewers are 0-5 in Lohse's last 5 starts as an underdog.  Take Cincinnati.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Boston Red Sox -120

The Key: Great value here on the Red Sox (9-5), who are one of the best teams in baseball up against one of the worst in the Rays (6-8).  They have one of the best lineups in the majors, while the Rays have one of the worst.  We're also getting by far the better starting pitcher tonight in Joe Kelly over Nate Karns.  Kelly is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.710 WHIP through two starts this season, while Karns is 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.075 WHIP through three starts.  Karns has already walked 10 batters this season.  Kelly is 8-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.  The Red Sox are 5-0 in Kelly's last 5 starts.  Boston is 6-0 in Kelly's last 6 road starts with a total of 7.0-8.5.  The Rays are 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog.  Take Boston.

7* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Key: This line is inflated because it's a #1 seed vs. a #8 seed.  The same was true in the Western Conference as the Pelicans covered Game 1 and Game 2 despite losing straight up.  I believe the same is the case in the East here after the Nets covered in Game 1 in a 7-point loss as 11-point underdogs.  I just like the way that Brooklyn has played down the stretch.  It won 13 of its final 19 games of the regular season just to get in the playoffs.  It still has a plethora of talent with Deron Williams, Brook Lopez & Joe Johnson leading the way.  Lopez has been especially dominant.  He should have a big game against an injury-riddled Atlanta front line that is seeing both Paul Millsap and Al Horford struggle playing through injuries.  Brooklyn has stepped up its game against good competition, going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 against teams winning 60% of their games or better.  The Hawks are 1-9 ATS after recording 10 or more steals in two straight games, and 13-29 ATS in their last 42 on two days' rest.  Take Brooklyn.

6* AL Central *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Indians -124

The Key: After blowing a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the 9th inning last night to lose 3-4 to the White Sox, look for the Indians to come back determined for a win today.  I like their chances given the massive edge them have on the mound in this one.  Carlos Carrasco posted a 1.30 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 69 innings over his final 10 starts of 2014.  Carrasco is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.948 WHIP through two starts in 2015.  He has owned the White Sox here of late, allowing just 3 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Hector Noesi has given up 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 18 base runners over 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Cleveland.  Noesi allowed two earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start this season against Minnesota.  The Indians are 51-25 in their last 76 games as a road favorite.  The White Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Chicago is 0-4 in Noesi's last 4 starts.  Take Cleveland.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Raptors UNDER 192.5

The Key: The books have once again set the number too high in Game 2 of this series just as they did in Game 1.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the four meetings between these teams despite two of those games going to overtime.  They have combined for 187, 188 and 179 (Game 1) points in the three unders.  They were only at 164 combined points before overtime in Game 1.  While I expect this game to be a little higher scoring in regulation, I still believe there's a ton of value with the UNDER 192.5.  Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games after playing two more more consecutive road games this season.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 2 days' rest.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Toronto.  Take the UNDER.

6* NL East *CA$H COW* on Miami Marlins -117

The Key: The Miami Marlins are off to a shaky start this season, but there's no doubt they are the better team in this matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies, and they'll be motivated to halt a four-game losing streak where they have only been outscored by a total of 7 runs.  Philadelphia is 1-7 in its last eight games overall with five of those losses coming by multiple runs.  It has been held to 2 or fewer runs five times during this stretch.  I look for Dan Haren to continue his dominant start against these light-hitting Phillies.  Haren is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.692 WHIP through two starts.  He has held the Phillies to two earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts against them.  Jerome Williams is 0-1 (0-3 on the money line) with a 9.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in three career starts against the Marlins, having never beaten them.  Williams allowed four earned runs and 11 base runners in five innings in his last start against the Mets.  The Marlins are 5-1 in their last six games as a road favorite.  The Phillies are 0-8 in their last eight games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take Miami.

7* Pelicans/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans +12.5

The Key: I cashed in the Pelicans +12 in Game 1 in a 7-point loss to the Warriors.  I'll be backing them again in Game 2 as they'll be motivated to steal a win and even up this series heading back to New Orleans.  I just really like the way this team is playing now that they are finally healthy, which hasn't been the case until here recently.  They have won 8 of their last 12 games overall, including wins over the Spurs and Warriors.  Three of their four losses during this stretch have come by single-digits, too.  Golden State is having a hard time living up to the expectations it has created for itself from the oddsmakers.  It is now 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Pelicans are 26-13 (67%) ATS as underdogs this season.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a victory.  Take New Orleans.

6* Indians/White Sox AL Central *CA$H COW* on Cleveland -106

The Key: I look for the Cleveland Indians to take Game 1 of this series with the Chicago White Sox with the massive edge they have on the mound in this one.  Trevor Bauer had a tremendous spring training and has carried it over into the regular season.  He is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.083 WHIP with 19 strikeouts and only 4 hits allowed in 12 innings of work.  John Danks just has not been able to revive his career following injury.  He is 0-2 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in two starts this season.  Danks is 5-12 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 23 career starts against Cleveland.  The Indians are 3-0 in Bauer's three career starts against Chicago.  He has allowed just two earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  The Indians are 24-8 in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cleveland is 51-25 in its last 76 games as a road favorite.  The White Sox are 1-8 in Danks' last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 17-35 in Danks' last 52 starts overall.  Take Cleveland.

6* Yankees/Tigers AL *CA$H COW* on Detroit -112

The Key: Solid value here in getting arguably the best team in baseball in the Detroit Tigers (10-2) as only -112 home favorites over the New York Yankees tonight.  Alfredo Simon has really impressed with his new team already, going 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.825 WHIP in two starts.  I like him over C.C. Sabathia tonight.  Sabathia has simply lost it over the last three seasons, and he had a terrible spring training as well.  He is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA through two starts in 2015.  Sabathia sports a 4.47 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in 39 career starts against Detroit.  Detroit is 17-4 (+12.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.  Simon is 16-3 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Yankees are 0-5 in Sabathia's last five starts.  Take Detroit.

7* Spurs/Clippers NBA Sunday *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +1

They Key: The Clippers might be the most underrated team heading into the playoffs.  They are underdogs at home to the Spurs when they shouldn't be tonight.  They have gone 14-1 in their last 15 games overall and are obviously coming in with a ton of confidence because of it.  San Antonio is rested, but that's not necessarily a good thing considering it is 3-13 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Also, plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1996.  Take Los Angeles.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Seattle Mariners -158

The Key: After losing four in a row, the Mariners got back on track yesterday by beating the Rangers 3-1.  I look for them to win the series in Game 3 with another victory over the Rangers today.  James Paxton is one of the best young starters in the game.  He has gone 9-5 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.124 WHIP over 19 career starts in his brief career.  He's not known, which keeps his price down when it should be much higher.  Paxton is up against Ross Detwiler, who is 20-34 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.395 WHIP over 481 big league innings.  Detwiler is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.300 WHIP in two starts this season.  Paxton is 1-1 with a 0.71 ERA in two career starts against Texas.  The Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Seattle.

7* Pelicans/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans +12

The Key: The most amazing part about the New Orleans Pelicans making the playoffs is that they have not been healthy all year.  They are finally at full strength heading into the playoffs, which helped them to an 8-3 finish down the stretch where they played their best basketball of the season.  That includes wins over both the Warriors and Spurs in their final six games.  They can play with the Warriors when healthy, and they will prove that in Game 1 tonight.  Golden State is the most overvalued team entering the playoffs, and that is reflected in this ridiculous 12-point spread.  New Orleans is 25-13 ATS as an underdog this season.  Golden State is 1-8 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more in 2 straight games this season.  Take New Orleans.

6* AL East *CA$H COW* on Toronto Blue Jays -140

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays will be digging deep to get a win today after losing two straight and four of their last five games overall, including a 7-8 loss to the Braves in the opener.  I like their chances of bouncing back tonight with R.A. Dickey on the mound.  The former NL Cy Young winner is off to a tremendous start this season, posting a 2.19 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in two starts.  He'll be opposed by Alex Wood, who sports a 3.86 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in two starts.  Not only do the Blue Jays have the better starter on the mound, they have one of the best lineups in baseball that is ready to get after Wood.  The Braves have one of the worst.  Atlanta is 9-24 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 3 seasons.  The Braves are 3-12 (-11.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons.  Atlanta is 1-6 in its last 7 interleague road games.  The Braves are 3-9 in Wood's last 12 road starts.  The Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take Toronto.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Red Sox -115

The Key: This is a classic case of a starting pitcher being overrated after one dominant start.  Ubaldo Jimenez shut down the Toronto Blue Jays in his first start of the season, but let's be honest, this guy is still terrible.  He has posted a 4.68 ERA or worse in three of the past four seasons, and he's not all of a sudden an elite starter in this league, though he's being treated like it tonight from oddsmakers.  Meanwhile, Joe Kelly remains an underrated starter.  He has gone 22-16 with a 3.36 ERA in his four-year career.  He allowed just one earned run over seven innings while striking out eight in an 8-4 win at New York in his first start this season.  Kelly is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in two career starts against Baltimore, while Jimenez is 1-4 with an 8.68 ERA and 1.982 HWIP in eight lifetime starts against Boston.  Boston is 15-4 (+11.5 Units) against the money line after 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent over the last 3 seasons.  Kelly is 9-3 (+8.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles are 1-6 in Jimenez's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss.  Boston is 4-0 in Kelly's last 4 starts.  Take Boston.

7* NL East *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Nationals -129

The Key: Due to their tough 3-6 start, the Washington Nationals are actually undervalued right now.  But they are starting to get healthy, and that showed in their 10-5 outburst against the Red Sox yesterday.  They won't need many runs to beat the lowly Philadelphia Phillies today.  The Phillies are 0-4 in their last four games overall while scoring a combined 9 runs in the process.  Doug Fister led Washington's rotation in wins (16) and ERA (2.41) last year.  He has picked up right where he left off.  Fister pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings against Philadelphia on April 11th.  He is now 2-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five career starts against the Phillies.  Cole Hamels is 9-23 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Philadelphia is 0-6 in its last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Nationals are 9-2 in Fister's last 11 home starts.  Take Washington.

7* Pacers/Grizzlies ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana +1

The Key: The Indiana Pacers need to win and they're in the playoffs.  A loss and a Brooklyn win over Orlando would knock them out.  They have put themselves in this position by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  The Pacers are 6-0 in their last six games overall with four of their wins coming by 12 points or more.  The Grizzlies looked like a lock for the No. 2 seed a month ago, but injuries and poor play have them in a bad spot and likely to miss a first round series at home.  They have lost six of their last 10 games overall.  Three starters in Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Tony Allen are all hurt, and at least two of them aren't expected to play tonight.  The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take Indiana.

6* Yankees/Orioles AL East *CA$H COW* on Baltimore -113

The Key: This is a very generous price to get the defending AL East champs at home today against the New York Yankees, who may be the worst team in the division.  I'll take advantage and side with the Orioles here as only -113 favorites.  Bud Norris will be motivated to bounce back from an ugly start against Toronto in his first outing of the season.  I like his chances considering how much he has dominated the Yankees in the past.  Indeed, Norris is 4-0 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees, having never lost to them.  Enough said.  Take Baltimore.

6* Wizards/Pacers Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Indiana -7

The Key: If Indiana wins out, it will be in the playoffs.  That is motivation enough for the Pacers to crush the Wizards tonight.  Couple that with the fact that Washington is locked into the No. 5 seed with nothing to play for, and it's pretty easy to see how this game is going to play out.  The Pacers have battled their way into this position by going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 19-point win over Charlotte, a 23-point win over Miami, a 16-point win over New York, a 12-point win over Oklahoma City, and a 4-point win at Detroit.  This team is gaining a lot of steam and will be a dangerous No. 7 or No. 8 seed in the postseason, especially with a healthy Paul George back in the lineup.  Indiana is 9-1 ATS in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Wizards are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games.  Washington is 0-6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Take Indiana.

7* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins -104

The Key: The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves have gone in opposite directions through the first week of the season.  Due to their 1-6 start, I believe the Marlins are undervalued right now while the Braves are overvalued due to their 6-1 start.  I also expect the Marlins to be the hungrier team in this one.  Tom Koehler is an underrated starter for Miami.  He reached the seventh inning in his first start against Atlanta and allowed only two runs.  Koehler has posted a 2.81 ERA in his last five starts against the Braves.  Trevor Cahill went 3-12 with a 5.61 ERA in 32 games, 17 starts, last year for the Diamondbacks.  Plays against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - allowing 3.3 or less runs/game on the season (NL), after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games are 33-13 (71.7%) over the last five seasons.  The Braves are 3-10 in their last 13 games as a favorite.  Take Miami.

6* Nationals/Red Sox Interleague *CA$H COW* on Washington +115

The Key: The Washington Nationals are off to a slow start this season, and they're showing excellent value now as a result.  Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back a starting pitcher of Stephen Strasburg's caliber as an underdog, but that's the gift the oddsmakers have given us today, and we'll take it.  Strasburg and the Nationals are hungry for a win after losing four of thier last five.  He went 14-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 242 strikeouts in 215 innings last year.  Strasburg is looking to win his fifth consecutive road start after posting a 0.31 ERA in winning each of his last four of 2014.  He'll be up against Justin Masterson, who went 7-9 with a 5.88 ERA last year and is overmatched in this one.  Washington is 12-2 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Nationals are 38-17 in their last 55 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take Washington.

7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +16

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are finishing out their season pretty solidly.  They have won two of their last three with their only loss coming by a final of 144-143 to the Dallas Mavericks in double-overtime.  They beat the Lakers by 18 and the Kings by 11.  They will be out for revenge from a 92-107 home loss to the Clippers on April 4th just over a week ago.  The Clippers do have more to play for right now, but they're also overvalued because of it.  Each of the last six meetings were decided by 15 points or less, including five by 12 points or fewer.  The Clippers are 1-8 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games this season.  Denver is 10-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.  Take Denver.

6* National League *CA$H COW* on Miami Marlins +102

The Key: The Miami Marlins came into the season with a lot of expectations, but have gone just 1-5 to this point.  Not many were expecting anything from the Atlanta Braves, but they currently lead the NL East with a 5-1 record.  I look for the Marlins to want this game more and to go out and get Game 1 of this series with their division rival Braves.  Adding to the motivation is the fact that the Marlins were swept at home by Atlanta in the opening series.  Shelby Miller has not fared well against Miami, going 0-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in three career starts against the Marlins.  The Marlins are 16-6 in their last 22 during game 1 of a series.  The Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.  The Braves are 3-10 in their last 13 games as a favorite.  Take Miami.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +15.5

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs have a lot to play for as they have the No. 2 seed within their grasp.  There's no question they will show up tonight, but asking them to win by 16-plus points to cover this 15.5-point spread is asking too much.  The Spurs are coming off back-to-back wins over the Rockets, which has given them home-court advantage in the first round if the season were to end today.  It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown after those two big wins.  Plus, the Phoenix Suns will be the No. 9 or No. 10 seed in the West for the second consecutive season.  They will want to take their frustration out on the defending champs, which is why they will show up today.  Phoenix is 50-28 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Take Phoenix Sunday.

7* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -110

The Key: The Los Angeles Angels could not possibly be more hungry for a win than they are Sunday.  They were swept by the Royals in the postseason last year, and now they've lost the first two games of this series.  I have no doubt they want this one badly to avoid the 3-0 sweep, and I believe they'll get the win and get some payback Sunday.  They give the ball to C.J. Wilson, who is feeling great after pitching 8 shutout innings in a 2-0 win over Seattle in his first start of 2015.  Wilson has posted a 3.72 ERA in eight career starts against Kansas City as his teams have gone 6-2 in those contests.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Cubs/Rockies National League *CA$H COW* on Chicago +102

The Key: The Colorado Rockies come into this game overvalued due to their 4-0 start to the season.  I expect them to suffer their first loss of the season in Game 2 of this series against the Chicago Cubs after taking Game 1 by a final of 5-1.  The Cubs clearly have the advantage on the mound in this one.  Jason Hammel is coming off a career year, going 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA in 17 starts for the Cubs before being traded to Oakland.  He's glad to be back in Chicago.  He'll be up against Kyle Kendrick, who is 1-2 with a 4.00 ERA in five lifetime starts versus Chicago.  He has allowed 10 runs over 12 innings in his last two starts against the Cubs.  The Cubs are 6-0 in Hammel's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockies are 28-61 in their last 89 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take Chicago.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Toronto Raptors +3.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are fighting for the No. 3 seed in the East and home-court advantage in the first round.  They are currently tied with the Chicago Bulls for that spot.  There's no question that the Raptors are going to show up tonight.  Yes, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Orlando 105-103 on the road yesterday, but this isn't your normal tough back-to-back situation.  It's a short plane ride down to Miami.  I question the Heat's motivation because they are all but eliminated from the playoffs after losing to Chicago at home on Thursday.  They now trail No. 7 Boston and No. 8 Brooklyn by two games with only three games to play, which is basically an insurmountable comeback.  Kyle Lowry is back healthy and expected to play tonight for the Raptors, indicating that they are All In here down the stretch.  The Heat have played their way out of the playoffs by going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, and they aren't about to show up now.  Take Toronto.

6* Pirates/Brewers NL Central *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee -103

The Key: The Milwaukee Brewers are hungry for their first taste of victory after opening the season 0-4.  The Pirates got their first taste yesterday in Game 1 of this series to get to 1-3, and now it's the Brewers' turn.  I like their chances with youngster Jimmy Nelson on the mound.  He pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings in his first outing last season, and I look for another great opening performance from him tonight.  Vance Worley hasn't fared well against Milwaukee, going 1-3 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in five career starts against the Brewers.  He is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA in three career starts at Milwaukee, allowing 11 earned runs over 17 2/3 innings.  The Pirates are 15-52 in their last 67 meetings in Milwaukee.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Spurs/Rockets Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 206

The Key: The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs will meet up for the second time in three days.  They combined for 208 points on Wednesday, and I believe their familiarity with one another will lead to a much lower-scoring affair Friday.  After all, these teams haven't scored very many points in recent meetings in Houston.  They have combined for 179, 187, 191 and 202 points their last four meetings in Houston with all four games going UNDER the total.  They have averaged roughly 190 combined points per game in those four contests.  When you compare that to tonight's total set of 206, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Boston Celtics +6.5

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers have absolutely nothing to play for.  They clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their win over Milwaukee on Wednesday.  I don't expect them to show up at all tonight as they take on a Boston Celtics team with everything to play for right now.  The Celtics are clinging on to one of the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference, just one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana, which owns the tiebreaker over both Boston and Brooklyn.  This pressure has only brought out the best in the Celtics, who have won 13 of their last 20 games while going 4-1 in their last five.  They are not only winning, they are dominating as three of their last four wins have come by double-digits.  Lebron James is expected to sit out to rest tonight, leaving the Cavaliers short-handed, and showing that they could care less if they win this game or not.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after giving up 100 points or more in two straight games.  Take Boston.

6* Tigers/Indians AL Central *CA$H COW* on Cleveland -116

The Key: The Cleveland Indians will be amped up for their home opener today against the Detroit Tigers.  The Tigers are picked to win the AL Central once again, but the Indians have a realistic shot of dethroning them.  They'll give the ball to Zach McAllister, who is coming off a tremendous spring training and will pick up where he left off.  McAllister posted a 2.84 ERA in seven games this spring with 28 strikeouts and only four walks in 25 1/3 innings.  The 27-year-old is entering the prime of his career.  He went 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA against the Tigers last season.  Alfredo Simon had a solid year in Cincinnati last season, but struggled down the stretch, going 3-7 with a 4.52 ERA in his final 14 starts.  He gave up five runs in five innings of a loss to the Indians last season.  The Tigers are 5-13 in their last 18 games as a road underdog.  The Indians are 12-4 in McAllister's last 16 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Indians are 6-2 in McAllister's last eight starts vs. Detroit.  Take Cleveland.

7* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Heat UNDER 191.5

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round, while the Miami Heat are fighting just to stay alive for a playoff spot.  The No. 4 seed Bulls are one game ahead of No. 5 Washington, while the No. 9 Heat are one game behind both No. 7 Boston and No. 8 Brooklyn.  Both teams will be motivated, which will lead to max effort on defense.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series as the Heat and Bulls have not topped 183 combined points in any of the four games, and that 183-point performance came in overtime.  Not counting overtime, the Bulls & Heat have averaged 173.0 points in those four meetings.  That gives us 18.5 points of value here on the UNDER.  Chicago is 9-1 UNDER as a road dog of 6 points or fewer this year.  Take the UNDER.

6* MLB National League *CA$H COW* on San Diego Padres -125

The Key: The San Diego Padres have quietly had one of the best home-field advantages in baseball over the past couple seasons.  That is evident by the fact that they are a ridiculous 24-7 in their last 31 home games.  They have gone 9-4 in their last 13 home meetings with tonight's opponent in the San Francisco Giants.  Tim Hudson is 39 years old and really has nothing left.  He broke down at the end of last season, and I believe that is a sign of things to come.  Ian Kennedy went 13-13 with a 3.61 ERA last season and struck out 207 batters on the season.  Kennedy is 9-4 with a 2.52 ERA over 20 starts against San Francisco lifetime.  Take San Diego.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans Pelicans +5

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today, but there is still plenty of work left to do.  The Pelicans are 5-1 in their last six games overall to take a half-game lead on the Thunder for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They just beat the Warriors last night, and I look for them to upset the Grizzlies tonight as well.  Memphis is not playing well, going 2-4 in its last six games with all four losses coming by 9 points or more, and three of those coming at home.  Zach Randolph and Jeff Green are questionable to play tonight, and Tony Allen is out with a hamstring injury.  These injuries are really starting to take their toll on the Grizzlies, who have no business even being favored tonight in their current state.  The Pelicans are 24-11 ATS as an underdog this year.  New Orleans is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 when playing on no rest.  Memphis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when playing on 3 or more days of rest.  Take New Orleans.

6* NL East *CA$H COW* on Miami Marlins -125

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series to the Atlanta Braves, the Miami Marlins are going to come out extremely motivated for a win in Game 3.  I look for them to get that win behind Tom Koehler, who went 10-10 with a 3.81 ERA last year.  Koehler has posted a 3.50 ERA in six career starts against Atlanta, giving up just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his last two.  Shelby Miller was traded from St. Louis to Atlanta after going 10-9 with a 3.74 ERA last year.  The right-hander has not fared well against Miami, going 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.936 WHIP in two career starts against the Marlins.  He gave up five runs and two homers in a 5-6 loss in his lone start at Miami last year.  Atlanta is 20-40 (-25.0 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 3 seasons.  The Marlins are 5-1 in Koehler's last 6 starts as a favorite.  Take Miami.

7* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -105

The Key: The Chicago Cubs lost their opener to the St. Louis Cardinals at home.  They squandered several opportunities in a 3-0 defeat.  In fact, they went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position.  I look for them to come through in this situations with much more regularity today.  They won't have to score much considering they will be giving the ball to Jake Arrieta, who just doesn't get the credit he deserves.  Arrieta went 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts last year.  He has owned the Cardinals, going 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA in five starts against them over the past two seasons, allowing only 3 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings.  The Cubs are 4-0 in Arrieta's last four home starts.  Take Chicago.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +7.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for right now.  They have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the East, so don't expect them to show up with any consistency the rest of the way.  The Phoenix Suns still have a fighting chance of making the playoffs.  They are three games back of the reeling Oklahoma City Thunder, who have lost three straight and five of six to give the Suns and Pelicans a chance.  Given the mental state of both these teams, there's no question there is value in backing the Suns as 7.5-point road underdogs here.  The Suns are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 vs. Eastern Conference.  The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 12-29 ATS in its last 41 games when playing on two days' rest.  Take Phoenix.

7* Duke/Wisconsin Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -1

The Key: Wisconsin has had the much tougher path to reach the Championship Game.  It has beaten North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky in its last three games.  Duke, on the other hand, has had a pretty easy path to get here.  It has faced Utah, Gonzaga and Michigan State in its last three contests.  I love the Badgers' ability to space the floor, their elite rebounding, and their carefulness as they simply do not turn the ball over.  Those three factors will be big in them beating the Blue Devils in the Championship Game, especially the rebounding.  Wisconsin is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 against the ACC.  Yes, it lost to Duke earlier this season, but it is 6-0 ATS in road games when revenging a home loss to an opponent over the last two years.  It is also 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or fewer over the past two seasons.  Take Wisconsin.

6* American League *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Indians -115

The Key: The Cleveland Indians won 92 games in 2013 and 85 games in 2014 in their first two years under Terry Francona.  That extends Francona's streak of consecutive winning seasons as a manager to 10, which is the best mark in the big leagues.  The Indians open the season with the Houston Astros, who lost more than 100 games in three straight seasons before going 70-92 last year.  I'll side with the Indians at a generous price in the opener, especially with ace Corey Kluber getting the ball.  Kluber won the AL Cy Young Award last year after going 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA with 269 strikeouts.  He has faced the Astros twice in his lifetime, going 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA as well.  Take Cleveland.

6* NL East *CA$H COW* on Miami Marlins -128

The Key: The Miami Marlins are one of the most underrated teams in baseball coming into the season.  They have a loaded linup that features arguably the best outfield in baseball in Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna.  They added slugger Michael Morse and on-base machine Martin Prado in the offseason.  The Atlanta Braves lost a lot this offseason.  The losses of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis will have the Braves featuring one of the worst lineups in baseball.  I look for Miami ace Henderson Alvarez to shut down the Braves in the opener Monday.  Alvarez was one of the most underrated starters in baseball last year.  He went 12-7 with a 2.65 ERA, and bettors who backed him went 20-10 (+11.7 units) on the money line.  Alvarez is 8-0 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.  Take Miami.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Jazz/Kings UNDER 190.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have been the best defensive team in the second half of the season, period.  The Jazz are 15-8 since center Rudy Gobert became the starter.  They have done it with defense, limiting 17 of their last 20 opponents to 92 or fewer points.  They have held their last four foes to 87, 84, 84, and 89 points.  That's no small feat considering they have played Phoenix, Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City during this stretch.  Utah is 23-3 UNDER after having won two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Jazz last 24 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Kings last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the UNDER.

7* Cardinals/Cubs NL Central *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -108

The Key: The Chicago Cubs made some big moves this offseason to quickly become contenders in the NL Central.  Those moves will start paying off as soon as Opening Day.  Their biggest move was going out and getting an ace in Jon Lester, who continues to get better and better.  That trend should continue now that he'll be pitching in the National League for the first time in his career.  Lester went 16-11 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.110 WHIP last year, including 8-6 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 17 home starts.  Lester has never lost to the Cardinals, going 3-0 on the money line against them while posting a 1.19 ERA and 0.882 WHIP.  Take Chicago.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Utah Jazz +1.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns have no reason to show up right now.  They have to be checked out mentally with what has transpired over the past two weeks.  They had a legitimate shot to make the playoffs, but have blown it by going 0-5 in their last five games overall.  They now trail the Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 games for the 8th and final playoff spot with only six games to play and a brutal schedule ahead.  The last straw for them had to be their 106-107 loss at Golden State on Thursday.  I don't even expect them to show up tonight.  The Utah Jazz have been showing up in a big way over the past two months.  They are 17-8 SU & 15-9-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone 3-0 in their last three with a 5-point home win over Oklahoma City, a 20-point win at Minnesota, and a 14-point home win over Denver.  The Jazz have also won three of their last four meetings with Phoenix.  Utah is 17-8-2 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Jazz are 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Phoenix.  Take Utah.

6* Wisconsin/Kentucky Final Four *CA$H COW* on Wisconsin +5

The Key: There aren't many teams out there that have the formula to beat Kentucky.  But I believe Wisconsin has that formula.  They have big guys who can shoot from deep, which forces Kentucky's big men away from the basket.  Kentucky's big men are their biggest strength, but they will be a weakness in trying to guard the Frank Kaminsky's and Sam Dekker's of the world.  Wisconsin is also an elite rebounding team, and it rarely turns the ball over.  So, those are 3 keys that you almost have to have to beat a team like Kentucky.  After all, the Badgers only lost to the Wildcats 74-73 in the Final Four last year.  That loss will have them playing even more motivated basketball in the rematch.  You saw how Notre Dame's offense with four 3-point shooters on the floor at all times gave Kentucky fits last right.  Wisconsin will do the same thing, only it is a better defensive team than Notre Dame.  The Badgers also have the ability to slow down the tempo and play at their pace.  Kentucky is 9-19 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots over the last three seasons.  The Badgers are 7-1 ATS in road games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse this season.  Take Wisconsin.

7* Michigan State/Duke Final Four *HEAVY HITTER* on Duke -5.5

The Key: Duke has really stood above the competition in a big way so far in the NCAA Tournament.  It beat Robert Morris by 19, San Diego State by 19, Utah by 6, and Gonzaga by 14 to get here.  Even that game against the Utes wasn't all that close as it became close late.  The Blue Devils are now 16-1 in their last 17 games.  Each of their last nine wins have been by 5 points or more as few have even been close, which is indicated by the fact that they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Michigan State hasn't been dominant at all in the tournament as it could have easily lost all four games in which it won.  All four wins came by 7 points or fewer, including an overtime win over Louisville in the Elite 8.  Tom Izzo is 1-8 all-time against Mike Krzyzewski.  These teams played back on November 18th with Duke winning 81-71 on a neutral court.  I just believe that Duke has the most talented starting 5 in the tournament, and its talent will be too much for an undermanned Michigan State squad that is lucky to be here.  Duke is also 10-0 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Take Duke.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets +13

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone 15-3 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, which in turn has forced oddsmakers to jack up the price of backing the Spurs.  This has provided us with ample opportunity to fade them at a great value tonight in taking the Denver Nuggets as double-digit dogs.  The Nuggets are quietly playing some really good basketball down the stretch, going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, yet the betting public still wants nothing to do with them.  These teams have met three times already this year, and while San Antonio is 3-0, all three victories came by 10 points or less.  I believe that will be the case again in the 4th and final meeting.  Denver is 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better in the second half of the season this season.  The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take Denver.

6* NBA *Total* Annihilator on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: The oddsmakers have really set this total too high tonight between the Pistons and Bulls.  These are two teams that are in no hurry offensively, which is indicated by the fact that Chicago ranks 23rd in pace and Detroit ranks 22nd.  It's also a big reason why these teams typically play in lower-scoring games when they meet, especially in comparison to tonight's 197.5-point total.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have averaged 187.0 combined points in their last 10 meetings.  That stat alone shows how there is plenty of value with this UNDER.  The Bulls are 11-2 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Take the UNDER.

7* Stanford/Miami NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +2

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes have improved to 25-12 on the season thanks to a 7-1 run over their last eight games.  Their only loss came to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament by seven points, which is the same ND team that not only won the conference tournament, but also nearly upset Kentucky in the Elite 8.  I really like the resolve the Hurricanes have shown in coming from behind to beat Richmond and Temple in their last two games.  They have held a rebounding advantage in eight consecutive contests entering this game against Stanford.  The Cardinal were able to play three straight home games to get to the NIT semifinals, I don't believe their path to get here has been as difficult as Miami's.  The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following two straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals.  Take Miami.

6* NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5

They Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are trying to lock up the No. 2 seed in the East.  They are only a couple victories away from doing so.  Now, they enter this game on three days' rest, which is rare for this late in the year.  You can expect their best effort tonight against Lebron's former team in the Miami Heat.  They want revenge from losing two of the first three meetings of the season to the Heat, both coming on the road.  In their lone home meeting, the Cavs won 113-93, and a similar blowout can be expected tonight.  Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Cleveland.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are 2.5 games clear of the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference.  They aren't safe at all, and they really need to win this game at home against the Dallas Mavericks tonight, so motivation won't be an issue for them.  I question the Mavericks' motivation considering they have lost four of their last five games, and they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Dallas is now three games ahead of OKC and three games behind San Antonio for the No. 6 seed, so it pretty much has the No. 7 seed locked up unless the Thunder catch them, which they'll be motivated to do to avoid Golden State in the first round.  Dallas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Mavs are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams that average at least 83 shots per game, or ones that play at a fast pace.  Take this 18-0 ATS Angle backing the Thunder straight to the bank tonight.  Take Oklahoma City.