7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Marlins +1.5 (-135)

The Key: The Marlins, who are 5-0 in their last five games, are showing major value catching runs at home at this price.  Strasburg is not in good form (5.00 ERA L3 starts), and he's struggled on the road all season (5.09 ERA).  Strasburg has also struggled in Miami, giving up 7, 7, 4 and 6 runs in his last 4 starts there.  The Nationals went 1-3 in these starts, are 2-6 in Strasburg's last 8 starts overall and 2-5 in his last 7 road starts.  Alvarez has been unbelievable at home where he has a 1.64 ERA.  The Marlins are 13-3 in his last 16 starts and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts.  He has a solid 3.19 ERA in 6 starts versus Washington.  Take the Marlins on the run line.

7* National League Game of the Week on Reds -125

The Key: The Reds have lost eight of nine, but six of the losses came on the road to the Yankees and Brewers and two came to the Nationals.  I expect Cincinnati to get off the snide here against an Arizona club that is 15 games under .500.  The Reds are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus losing clubs and 8-2 in their last 10 home games versus teams with losing road records.  The D-backs are 4-9 in their last 13 road games and 1-5 in their last six road games versus a right-handed starter.  Cincy's Bailey has a 2.79 ERA over his last seven home starts, and the Reds are 2-0 all-time in his starts versus Arizona.  Cincy is 11-4 in its last 15 versus the D-backs, including 5-1 in the last six and 3-0 in the last three.  Arizona is 5-19 since 1997 in road games when seeking revenge for two straight losses to an opponent as a home favorite.  It is also 4-12 this season when seeking revenge from two straight home losses to an opponent.  Take the Reds.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -132

The Key: The Yankees are 39-12 in their last 51 home games versus the Blue Jays, including 21-3 since the start of the 2012 season.  Look for New York's dominance over Toronto to continue here.  Toronto's Happ has struggled on the road where he has a 5.87 ERA.  He's also struggled versus the Yankees, as evidenced by the 5.22 ERA he's posted against them in seven career starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Yankees.  The Jays are 3-11 in their last 14 road games, 5-14 in their last 19 as an underdog and 2-10 in their last 12 Game 3's of a series.  Toronto isn't familiar with Greene, who has a 2.79 ERA on the season.  Take the Yankees.

7* MLB Game of the Week on White Sox -165

The Key: Chicago has a huge advantage with Sale on the mound.  The southpaw is 9-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.863 WHIP.  His WHIP is extremely significant because Minnesota is 0-11 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower.  The Twins have lost these 11 by 4.0 runs on average.  It is also worth noting that they are 30-77 in their last 107 games versus starters with a WHIP less than 1.150.  The White Sox are 15-2 in Sale's last 17 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 5-1 in his six career starts versus the Twins.  Minnesota is 0-5 in its last five versus losing clubs and 0-6 in its last six home games versus losing clubs.  Take Chicago.

7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Astros -123

The Key: The Marlins check in off a 3-2 win in Atlanta while the Astros are coming off a 13-1 defeat in Oakland.  However, you want to fade teams off a win of two runs or less when they are up against an opponent off a loss of 12 runs or more.  Doing so has produced a 28-11 mark since 1997 and a 9-1 mark the last five seasons.  Houston's Keuchel has struggled over his last five starts, but all five were on the road.  I expect a strong performance from him at home where he's given up just four runs in his last 23 innings.  Miami's Hand has a 5.02 ERA in six starts.  The Marlins are 3-11 in his last 14 starts, 1-6 in his last seven road starts, 0-4 in his last four series-opening starts and 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Marlins are 0-4 in their last four interleague games, 0-4 in their last four interleague games as an underdog, 0-4 in their last four versus AL West clubs and 0-4 in their last four versus losing clubs.  They are also 38-86 in their last 124 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The Astros are 38-15 in their last 53 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take Houston.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mariners -128

The Key: Off back-to-back losses to the Mets, I like Seattle to bounce back strong behind Iwakuma.  The Mariners are 14-4 all-time in his starts following two consecutive losses or more.  Iwakuma has a 2.95 ERA and a 0.994 WHIP on the season, a 2.81 home ERA and a 0.937 home WHIP on the season and a 1.59 ERA and 0.662 WHIP over his last three starts.  The Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Chen's numbers don't stack up.  He has a 4.21 ERA and 1.303 WHIP on the season and a 4.68 ERA and 1.323 WHIP on the road.  Plus, he is 0-2 in his last two starts against the Mariners, giving up eight runs in 11 innings.  You want to fade underdogs of +100 or higher that are starting a pitcher with a winning percentage above 70% if they are up against an AL opponent that is starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Doing so has produced a 54-12 (82%) mark the last five seasons.  Take Seattle.

7* MLB Run Line Game of the Week on Rockies +1.5 -115

The Key: The Rockies are showing a ton of value catching runs at home at a very reasonable price with De La Rosa on the mound.  The Rockies have lost seven in a row, but they are 21-3 the last two seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a loss.  This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 if they are off three consecutive defeats or more.  They are a jaw-dropping 43-8 in his last 51 home starts and 12-1 the last two seasons in his day starts.  It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 5-1 in De La Rosa's last six starts versus Nationals.  Strasburg hasn't had the same stuff on the road where he has a 4.92 ERA.  Take Colorado on the run line.

7* MLB Total of the Week on Astros/A's Under 7.5 (-105)

The Key: Oakland busted out at the plate Sunday but was batting just .234 this month prior.  Expect its offensive struggles to continue against Oberholtzer, who has a 3.09 ERA over his last five starts.  He's allowed a total of two earned runs in 11 2-3 innings in two career starts in Oakland.  The under is 2-0 in those starts.  Houston doesn't figure to get much of anything off Kazmir, who has given up two or fewer runs in 10 of his last 12 outings and has a 1.57 ERA at home in 2014.  He's given up three earned runs or fewer in three career home starts versus the Astros.  The under is 3-0 in those starts.  The under is 4-0 in Kazmir's last four home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  It's also 6-0-1 in Oberholtzer's last seven starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Take the under.

7* Interleague Game of the Week on Tigers -134

The Key: Detroit is a major league-best 28-16 on the road and has won 11 of its last 14 away from home while averaging 5.9 runs and batting .302.  Look for its road dominance to continue here with Verlander on the mound.  The Tigers are 22-6 in his last 28 interleague starts, and he has a 2.12 ERA over his last 14 regular-season starts versus the NL.  Detroit is 9-0 all-time under Ausmus in road games following six consecutive games versus division foes.  It has won by an average score of 7.1 to 2.9 in this spot.  The Tigers are also 7-0 in their last seven games with a total of 9.0-10.5 and 4-0 in their last four interleague games versus a left-handed starter.  The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Take Detroit.

7* AL Game of the Week on Tigers -130

The Key: The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six games after losing the first three games of a series, and I expect them to improve on this trend here.  They are still 35-16 in their last 51 home meetings with the Indians.  Cleveland hasn't hit southpaw starters well, averaging just 3.8 runs per game against them on the season.  It will have a tough time getting to Smyly, who has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 home starts.  He's also been tough on the division with a 2.87 ERA versus AL Central foes this season.  Cleveland's Tomlin will be tested by a Detroit offense that is averaging 4.9 runs per game off right-handed starters.  He has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts and has a 7.06 ERA in four career starts versus Detroit.  The Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin's last six starts and 0-2 in his two career starts in Detroit.  Take the Tigers.

7* MLB Game of the Week on Pirates -144

The Key: The Rockies are just 15-36 in their last 51 overall, 31-67 in their last 98 on the road and 1-10 in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are 4-0 in their last four at home, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against this struggling Colorado club.  Charlie Morton has been one tough cookie at home where he has posted a 1.10 ERA over his last five starts.  The right-hander has a 1.93 ERA in two career starts at PNC against Colorado.  Colorado's Brett Anderson has a 4.95 ERA on the season and a 5.14 ERA over his last three starts.  His clubs are 1-6 in his last seven starts.  You want to fade July NL road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that allow 4.8 runs per game or more.  Doing so has produced a 41-7 mark the last five seasons.  This system is a near perfect 9-1 the last three seasons.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -117

The Key: The Cardinals have the edge with Lynn getting the ball.  He's 6-2 with a 2.83 ERA in 10 home starts.  He was rocked in L.A. last month but had a blister on his middle finger that limited him to throwing all fastballs.  Prior to that, he was 4-0 with a 1.40 ERA versus the Dodgers.  With his finger healed, I expect him to go back to dominated L.A.  Haren has been rocked in his last two starts (12 runs allowed in 9 1-3 innings), and he's been hit hard on the road all season (5.05 ERA).  The Dodgers are 2-5 in Haren's last seven road starts while the Cardinals are 7-2 in Lynn's last nine starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record and 67-28 in their last 95 home games versus a right-handed starter.  The Dodgers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in St. Louis.  Take the Cards.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -144

The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with the southpaw Ryu against a San Diego club that is batting .195 and averaging just 2.6 runs per game versus left-handed starters.  The Dodgers are 19-5 in Ryu's last 24 starts versus a team with a losing record.  Ryu is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.93 in three career starts versus the Padres.  The Dodgers are batting .265 and averaging 4.3 runs per game off right-handed starters.  The Padres are 1-6 in Ross' last seven starts, including 0-3 in his road starts during this stretch.  The Padres are 0-4 in his last four division starts, 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last four starts following a team loss.  The Padres are also 0-3 in his last three starts versus the Dodgers.  Take Los Angeles.

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Royals -117

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Royals will bear down and get one back this evening.  Kansas City is an outstanding 42-19 in its last 61 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and I'll gladly get behind it at this price with Shields on the hill.  The Royals are 30-12 in Shields' last 42 starts, 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 10-3 in his last 13 starts versus a team with a winning record.  He was hit hard the last time he faced Detroit and will be extremely focused here as a result.  Porcello is having an outstanding season, but he isn't the same caliber of Shields.  Take Kansas City.

7* Interleague Game of the Month on Rockies -157

The Key: The Rockies are worth the price at home with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound.  They are an unbelievable 42-9 in his last 51 home starts and 18-3 in his last 21 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Rockies are 16-6 in their last 22 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 14-3 in their last 17 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  I do not see inexperienced starter Kris Johnson faring well in his first starts at flighty Coors against a Colorado offense that is batting .312 there.  The Twins are 4-12 in their last 16 interleague games, 1-5 in their last six interleague games as an underdog and 0-5 in their last five series openers.  Take Colorado.

7* American League Game of the Month on Angels -116

The Key: The Angels are showing a lot of value at this price versus a Texas club that has dropped 18 of 21.  The Halos have lost eight straight versus the Rangers in Texas, and will be out to bring that skid to an end.  They're looking at this series as an opportunity to gain more ground on the A's, and I expect them to be extremely focused.  The Angels are 7-0 in their last seven division contests while the Rangers are 0-8 in their last eight versus AL West foes.  The Rangers are even 0-4 in their last four home games versus a team with a losing road record and 0-7 in their last seven games versus a starter with a WHIP above 1.300.  I like LA here regardless of who gets the start.  The southpaw Santiago is scheduled, and the Rangers are 0-6 in their last six games versus a left-handed starter.  Texas is really struggling to generate offense, averaging just 3.6 runs over its last 11 games.  The Halos are averaging 5.8 runs over their last 19 games.  I don't see Texas' Lewis, who has a 6.54 ERA at home, having an answer for this offense.  Texas is 1-10 this season as a home dog of +100 or higher.  Take LA.

6* National League Annihilator on Pirates +108

The Key: The Pirates are showing value at this price with Volquez on the mound.  The right-hander is in top form, going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last three starts.  St. Louis is far from an offensive juggernaut.  In fact, its on-base percentage is just .310.  This is significant because Volquez's clubs are 11-1 the last two seasons in his starts in the second half of the schedule versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse.  The Cardinals are 0-4 in Miller's last four starts, during which he's compiled a 7.32 ERA.  Volquez's clubs are 4-2 in his last six starts versus the Cards while the Cards are 2-5 all-time in Miller's starts versus the Pirates.  You want to take road teams with a hot starting pitcher who has an ERA lower than 2.50 over his last three starts when matched up against a team with a cold starter who has a WHIP of 2.250 or higher over his last three starts.  Doing so has produced a 34-9 mark the last 5 seasons.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* MLB Run Line Rout on Brewers -1.5 (+107)

The Key: Philly doesn't have enough pop at the plate to get to Lohse, who has a 2.10 ERA in seven home starts this season.  The Phillies are batting just .238 on the season, and that doesn't bode well for them here.  Milwaukee is a 100 percent perfect 8-0 against the run line this season in Lohse's starts versus NL clubs batting .245 or worse, and it has won these games by an average of 3.5 runs.  Philly has managed to win the first two games of this series, but the Brewers are a 100 percent perfect 9-0 against the run line the last three seasons in home games when seeking revenge for two straight upset losses at home to an opponent.  They have won by an average of 5.2 runs in this spot.  I like Milwaukee's chances of getting to Hernandez, who has a 6.75 ERA in seven road starts this season.  Take Milwaukee on the run line.

6* MLB Line Mistake on Royals -109

The Key: Kansas City should be a larger favorite given the edge it has on the mound with Vargas, who has a 1.52 ERA on the road this season and has won his last two starts in Tampa Bay while giving up no earned runs in 13 innings.  This is Hellickson's first start back, and I'm expecting plenty of rust after he went 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA in six rehab starts.  He has a 6.18 lifetime ERA versus the Royals with the Rays going 0-3 in his last three starts against them.  The Rays are 1-7 in Hellickson's last eight starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Royals are 12-4 in their last 16 road games, 28-11 in their last 39 games as a road favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 against Tampa Bay.  Take Kansas City.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -138

The Key: The Braves are 5-0 in their last five Game 2's of a series while the Mets are 6-22 in their last 28 Game 2's, and I expect these trends to continue.  Atlanta's Teheran has a 2.29 ERA on the season, a 1.79 ERA in division play and a 1.44 ERA in four starts versus the Mets.  The Braves are 8-1 in his last nine road starts versus teams with a losing record.  New York's deGrom has struggled under the lights.  The Mets are 0-7 in his night starts, during which he's posted a 4.99 ERA.  They are also 0-4 in his home starts.  New York is a lousy 28-62 in its last 90 games as a home underdog.  Take the Braves.

6* American League Annihilator on Yankees -142

The Key: The Yankees have the edge on the mound with Tanaka, who has a 2.27 ERA on the season.  They are 12-3 in his last 15 starts and 7-1 on the season in his road starts.  Tanaka is facing Cleveland for the first time and hasn't lost to an opponent he faces for the first time.  New York is 8-1 in its last nine road games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Cleveland's Bauer has a 4.42 ERA on the season.  The Indians are 1-6 in their last seven home games versus a right-handed starter.  The Yankees are 5-0 in their last five, 12-2 in their last 14 and 26-8 in their last 34 versus Cleveland.  Take New York.

6* AL Run Line Rout on Angels -1.5 (+123)

The Key: Toronto is struggling at the plate.  It hit .180 and went 0 for 20 with runners in scoring position while being outscored 14-4 in a four-game series sweep in Oakland.  The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last six road games and have lost these by an average of 3.5 runs.  Their struggles figure to continue as they get set to face Weaver without Encarnacion, who is second in the majors with 26 homers and 70 RBIs.  The Angels are 10-0 in their last 10 home games and have won these by 3.1 runs on average.  Weaver has a 2.75 ERA at home and is 9-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 11 starts versus Toronto.  He's 4-0 in his last four home starts versus the Jays with a 1.99 ERA.  LA won those four by 4.3 runs on average.  Bautista is just 1 of 12 against Weaver.  The Halos are 22-5 as a favorite of -150 or higher this season, winning these contests by an average score of 6.0 to 3.4.  Take LA.

7* Run Line Rout of the Month on Nationals -1.5 (+126)

The Key: Strasburg is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last nine home starts while Tillman has an ERA of 5.53 in 10 road starts and an 11.90 ERA in three interleague starts.  Tillman is averaging only 5.5 innings per start on the road and 3.8 innings in interleague play.  In other words, an early departure figures to put a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has been taxed the last two days.  Showalter said that certain relievers won't take the mound after his pen worked 12 1-3 innings over the last two days.  You want to fade underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher who has an ERA of less than 2.50 over his last five starts if the bullpen has worked nine innings or more in the last two games.  Doing so has produced a 66-13 mark since 1997, a 22-4 mark the last five seasons, a 14-1 mark the last three seasons and a 2-0 mark this season.  Teams fitting into this system have lost by 2.3 runs on average.  Take Washington on the run line.

6* MLB Early Annihilator on Reds -117

The Key: The Reds are showing value at this price at home where they are 30-12 in their last 42 against the Brewers.  Latos has allowed just two runs in his last 14 innings of work spanning two starts, and he typically performs well when given extra rest.  In fact, the Reds are 18-4 in his last 22 starts on five days' rest.  They are 24-7 in his last 31 home starts.  Gallardo was hit hard in a loss in Cincinnati earlier this season, and the Brewers are 3-9 in his last 12 road starts versus the Reds.  Take Cincy.

7* MLB Total of the Month on Rays/Tigers Under 8

The Key: I expect a pitcher's duel between Sanchez and Archer to finish under the number.  Sanchez has an ERA of 2.34 in his last 10 starts while holding opponents to a .195 average.  Tampa Bay's Archer has posted a 1.65 ERA over his last nine starts.  The "under" is 10-1 in Archer's last 11 starts as an underdog,  5-0 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, 5-0 in his last five starts versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 in his last four road starts versus a team with a winning record.  The "under" is 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings between these clubs and 5-1 in the last six games umpire Mark Carlson has been behind home plate.  Take the under.

7* Pre All-Star Break Game of the Year on Cardinals -148

The Key: The Marlins have been a poor investment on the road where they are 40-86 in their last 126 road games.  They've also been a poor investment against the Cardinals, going 17-35 in the last 52 meetings, including 0-5 in the last five in St. Louis.  It is also worth noting that Miami is 0-7 in its last seven games versus a winning team and 0-5 in its last five games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Scheduled starter Eovaldi has been struggling, giving up five earned runs or more in three of his last four starts.  The Marlins are 0-6 in Eovaldi's last six starts versus National League Central foes and 0-4 in his last four starts versus a club that scored five runs or more last game.  The Cardinals are a lethal 42-13 in their last 55 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.  Lynn will be focused following a rough outing in L.A.  He's been strong at home (3.22 ERA) and has given up two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts prior to his last.  The Cardinals are 9-3 in Lynn's last 12 starts versus National League East opponents and 11-4 in his last 15 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Take St. Louis.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Rangers -111

The Key: The Rangers are 5-2 in their last seven games after losing the first three games of a series, 7-1 in their last eight Game 4's of a series and 21-8 in their last 29 Thursday games.  Texas has the edge on the mound with Darvish, who has a 2.42 ERA on the season.  The Rangers are 14-3 in his last 17 starts as a favorite, 6-1 in his last seven starts as a road favorite and 9-1 in his last 10 starts on regular rest (4 days).  The Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 Game 4's of a series and 3-9 in their last 12 games as a home underdog.  Chen has a 4.19 ERA on the season and a 6.32 ERA over his last three starts.  The Rangers are batting .283 and averaging 5.4 runs per game off lefty starters this season. You want to fade underdogs of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher that has a win percentage of 70% of better if they are matched up against an AL opponent starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Doing so has produced a 52-10 mark the last five seasons.  This system is 3-0 this season.  Take Texas.

6* MLB Run Line Rout on Rockies +1.5

The Key: I'll take the Rockies on the run line at a reasonable price for insurance in a game they have an excellent opportunity to win outright.  The Rockies, who are 20-8 in their last 28 home games following a road trip of seven or more days, will be happy to be home and happy to see Zack Greinke.  LA's right-handed ace hasn't had the same stuff on the road.  The Dodgers are 0-4 in his last four road starts while he's posted an ERA of 4.18.  He's especially struggled in Colorado where he has a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts.  The Dodgers are 5-12 in Greinke's last 17 starts as a road favorite of -125 to -150.  Franklin Morales has been tough on the division.  The Rockies are 4-0 in his four division starts this season while he's posted a 3.37 ERA.  The Rockies are batting .325 at home and averaging 6.4 runs per game.  The Dodgers are batting just .230 versus southpaw starters.  Take Colorado.

6* Wednesday Night Bailout on Cardinals -135

The Key: The Cardinals get the call behind Wainwright, who has a 1.46 road ERA and a 0.78 ERA over his last three starts.  He also has a sweet 0.903 WHIP on the season.  The Giants are 0-7 in their last seven games versus a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.150.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wainwright's last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  They are 45-18 in his last 63 starts as a favorite, 60-26 in his last 86 starts following a team loss, 23-5 in his last 28 starts versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage of .315 or less and 14-2 in his last 16 starts when working on five or six days' rest. Vogelsong hasn't had his best stuff lately, giving up 14 runs over his last four starts spanning 22 innings.  He also has a 5.43 ERA in 10 starts versus St. Louis while Wainwright has a 3.17 ERA in 10 starts versus San Francisco.  The Giants are 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog, 0-4 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter and 0-4 in their last four after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.  Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -126

The Key: I'll back the Reds in this bounce-back spot behind ace Johnny Cueto.  First off, the Reds are 10-2 in their last 12 games after losing the first two games of a series, 6-1 in their last seven Game 3's of a series and 21-6 in their last 27 Wednesday games.  Cueto has a 1.88 ERA on the season and a microscopic 0.75 ERA in day starts.  The Reds are 4-0 in Cueto's last four starts, 39-14 in his last 53 starts as a favorite, 21-5 in his last 26 starts in the third game of a series, 17-5 in his last 22 Wednesday starts and 11-2 in his last 13 starts versus the NL West.  The Padres are 3-9 in their last 12 Game 3's of a series and 2-7 in their last nine Wednesday games.  Tyson Ross hasn't been as sharp lately (4.12 ERA L3 starts), and the Padres are 0-5 in his last five starts.  They are also 0-5 in his last five starts following a "quality start" in his last appearance, 0-4 in his last four home starts and 0-4 in his last four Wednesday starts.  Take Cincinnati.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -128

The Key: The Pirates have won seven of nine, and I expect them to keep right on rolling behind a gem from Locke.  They are 3-0 in his last three starts, during which he's posted a 2.95 ERA.  He should have success against an Arizona club that is batting .221 over its last seven games and is a major league-worst 6-12 against left-handed starters.  Locke has a fantastic 0.980 WHIP on the season, and this figure is significant because the Diamondbacks are 5-21 in their last 26 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Arizona's Miley is 0-3 with a 4.74 ERA over his last eight starts, and the D-backs are 0-5 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* AL East *CA$H COW* on Rays -118

The Key: The Yankees have lost seven of nine while the Rays have won five of six.  Look for the Rays to keep right on rolling behind ace David Price.  Tampa Bay is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings and 6-1 in the last seven at Yankee Stadium.  They are also 4-0 in Price's last four road starts in the series, during which he's posted a 2.42 ERA.  He has a 2.31 ERA over his last six starts while striking out 60 and walking only six.  Price leads the majors with a 10.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The Rays are 24-8 in Price's last 32 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Yankees are 3-13 in their last 16 games as a home underdog and 3-8 in Kuroda's last 11 starts as an underdog.  Kuroda has a 4.69 ERA at home and a 6.94 ERA all-time versus the Rays.  The Yankees are 0-3 in his last three starts against them.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -135

The Key: Boston has been an awesome interleague investment over the years.  In fact, the Red Sox are 121-54 in their last 175 interleague games, 70-27 in their last 97 interleague home games and 96-37 in their last 133 interleague games as a favorite.  They enter this contest on a perfect 6-0 interleague run. The Cubs are 2-7 in their last nine interleague contests, 41-87 in their last 128 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 37-76 in their last 113 games versus a right-handed starter.  Chicago had yesterday off, but it is 0-12 the last two seasons in road games following a day off and has lost by an average score of 6.3 to 3.4 in this spot.  It is also worth noting that Boston is 10-0 the last two seasons in home games after a 20-game span with an on-base percentage of .310 or lower, and it has won by an average score of 5.8 to 2.4 in this spot.  Peavy has been pretty darn good at Fenway where he has held opponents to three earned runs or less in six of eight starts this season.  He's also been pretty darn good versus the Cubs.  He has a 2.76 ERA in 14 starts against them, and his clubs are 5-1 all-time in his home starts against them.  Arrieta is having a nice season for the Cubs, but Boston has had his number.  He's 0-3 with a 5.67 ERA in five starts versus the Red Sox.  A.J. Pierzynski is 4 for 5 with two homers against him while Pedroia (4 for 13), Mike Napoli (2 for 6), Daniel Nava (3 for 6) and David Ross (2 for 2) have all hit him fairly well and homered off him.  Take Boston.

6* MLB Annihilator on Giants -108

The Key: We lost with the Giants in extra innings last night, but I'm not hesitating to come right back with them at what I feel is a very nice price.  San Francisco has been struggling and now leads the Dodgers by only one game in the NL West so motivation won't be an issue.  I expect it to bear down right here and avoid being swept.  The Giants are 23-9 in their last 32 Game 4's of a series, 10-2 in Sunday games this season and 6-0 in their last six games following losses in the first three games of a series.  San Francisco's offense has struggled without some key bats in the lineup, but first baseman Brandon Belt is expected to return today.  His presence alone should provide a spark.  Cincinnati scheduled starter Homer Bailey hasn't shown he can be trusted on the road where he has a 5.47 ERA.  The Reds are 2-12 the last two seasons in his road starts when the money line is +125 to -125.  Bailey has given up 10 runs in 11 1-3 innings in his last two starts at AT&T Park.  San Francisco scheduled starter Tim Hudson has shown he can be trusted at home where he has a 2.59 ERA on the season and is 16-1 on the money line the last two seasons.  He has a 3.20 ERA in eight career starts versus the Reds with his clubs going 5-1 in his home starts against them.  Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are a combined 9 for 42 against Hudson.  Take the Giants.

6* MLB Line Mistake on Padres +100

The Key: San Diego is being undervalued at home with Stults on the mound and an Arizona club that is 5-14 in its last 19 games versus left-handed starters.  The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last four Game 2's of a series and 0-6 in their last six games following a win.  Stults has a 3.29 ERA in 10 starts versus Arizona while Collmenter has a 4.96 ERA in three starts versus the Padres.  The Padres are 17-8 in Stults' last 25 home starts and 9-3 in his last 12 home starts versus a team with a losing record.  The Diamondbacks are 5-11 in Collmenter's last 16 road starts and 2-6 in his last eight road starts versus a team with a losing record.  The Padres have won Stults' last two starts versus Arizona and three of his last four.  Take San Diego.

6* NL Annihilator on Giants -114

The Key: I'm not sold on Simon, who was 3-9 with a 5.15 ERA in 19 starts overs six seasons prior to 2014.  Cain is far more proven, and I like him to come through in this spot.  The Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games after losing the first two games of a series and 8-3 in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  In NL matchups, you want to fade road underdogs of +100 to +150 that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.150 or better on the season if they are batting .255 or worse as a team and facing a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20.  Doing so has produced a 53-16 mark since 1997.  Take San Francisco.

6* NL *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -141

The Key: Greinke's clubs have been phenomenal investments at home.  In fact, they are 41-14 all-time in his starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175.  The Dodgers are 18-4 in his last 22 home starts, including 5-0 in his last five home starts versus teams that have a winning record.  LA is also 16-3 in his last 19 starts following a loss in its previous game, and 4-0 in its last four games following a defeat.  You want to fade underdog of +125 to +175 that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.000 or better over his last three starts and are batting .255 or worse on the season when they are up against an NL starting pitcher who has an ERA of 3.00 or lower.  Doing so has produced a 47-9 mark the last five seasons.  Take the Dodgers.

7* AL East Game of the Month on Orioles -130

The Key: Tampa Bay has struggled on the road where it is batting .228 and averaging 3.0 runs per game.  It has also struggled against left-handed starters, batting .239 and averaging 3.3 runs per game against them.  Look for these struggles to continue in Baltimore while facing Chen.  The Orioles are 8-1 this season in his starts versus AL clubs that average 4.2 runs per game or less, and they have won these games by an average score of 6.2 to 3.0.  The Rays are 3-12 in their last 15 road games and 0-5 in their last five road games versus a left-handed starter.  Bedard has been a dead fade as his clubs are 11-27 in his last 38 starts.  Bedard has a 6.30 ERA in seven starts versus the Orioles while Chen has a 2.98 ERA in 10 starts versus Tampa Bay.  The Orioles are 5-0 in their last five Game 3's of a series.  The Rays are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.  Take Baltimore.

6* MLB Line Mistake on Mariners +104

The Key: Seattle is being undervalued at home against a Cleveland club that has lost four of five and is 10 games under .500 on the season.  I'm not sold on scheduled starter Trevor Bauer, who is 0-4 with a 7.53 ERA in seven career road starts.  The Indians are 0-3 in his road starts this season and 12-29 in their last 41 road games versus winning clubs.  The Mariners are 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog and 5-0 in their last five versus American League Central opponents.  Scheduled starter Chris Young has been outstanding, especially at home where he has a 2.23 ERA.  The Mariners are 4-0 in Young's last four home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 6-0 in his last sic starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.  The Indians are 1-5 in the last six meetings in Seattle.  Let's capitalize on this line mistake.

7* AL Total of the Year on Angels/Royals Under 8.5

The Key: The Angels have been rolling but expect their bats to slow down on the road as they face former teammate Jason Vargas.  He has been dialed in with a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts.  Having spent last season with the Angels, Vargas knows them well.  That was apparent when he held them to one run on three hits in 6 1-3 innings May 25.  He has an ERA of 2.44 in 13 career starts against them.  LA's Matt shoemaker is also in good form with a 2.61 ERA over his last three starts.  He gave up just two earned runs to the Royals May 24.  Kansas City has been struggling at the plate, averaging just 2.4 runs over its last seven games.  You want to play the "under" on home teams when the total is 8.0 to 8.5 in AL action if they have an on-base percentage of .320 or lower, are starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or lower and facing a starter with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Doing so has produced a 61-29 mark the last 5 seasons, and we've seen just 7.4 runs scored on average in these games.  Vargas is 10-1 "under" the last three seasons in home games versus clubs with a win percentage of 54-62%.  The "under" is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Under.

6* National League Annihilator on Nationals -131

The Key: The Nationals are an impressive 54-26 in their last 80 games as a favorite.  They are also 36-15 in their last 51 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  They are showing value at this price with Fister on the hill.  He's 6-2 with a 2.65 ERA in nine starts this season.  The Nats are 7-1 in his last eight starts, 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last four starts versus losing clubs.  The Cubs aren't at all familiar with his stuff as he's never faced them.  It also bodes well for us that Chicago is batting just .223 versus right-handed starters this season and is 35-75 in its last 110 games versus righty starters.  The Cubs' Wood is 7-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 15 starts, and he was hit hard in a home game they lost to Washington last season. The Nationals have crushed southpaw starters this season, hitting .280 against them.  The Cubs are 8-26 in Wood's last 34 starts versus teams with a winning record and 6-17 in his last 23 starts as a home underdog.  The Nationals are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.  Take Washington.

6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Mariners -133

The Key: The Red Sox have struggled on the road where they are 5-16 in their last 21.  They are even 1-10 in their last 11 road games versus teams that have a losing home record, and they are 1-6 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Mariners are 5-0 in their last five overall, 5-0 in their last five home games, 11-4 in their last 15 Game 3's of a series and 5-0 in Iwakuma's last five starts in the third game of a series.  Iwakuma gives Seattle the edge.  He has a 3.04 ERA on the season and a 2.64 ERA at home.  I expect to see some rust on Buchholz, who hasn't pitched in the bigs since May 26.  He has a 7.02 ERA on the season and an 8.56 ERA over his last three starts.  Take Seattle.

6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Royals -125

The Key: The Dodgers have been a poor investment in interleague road games, going 26-55 in their last 81.  They are 15-37 in their last 52 interleague road games versus teams with a winning record.  The Royals are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games overall and 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games versus teams with a winning record.  Kansas City has been an excellent investment in this price range, going 39-16 in its last 55 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  KC has also been an excellent investment with Shields on the mound.  The Royals are 29-10 in his last 39 starts, 22-6 in his last 28 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in his last five starts in the third game of a series.  The Dodgers are 2-5 in Haren's last seven starts and 1-4 in his last five road starts.  Kansas City is a lot more familiar with Haren's stuff having faced him in each of the past five seasons.  Take the Royals.

6* National League Annihilator on Reds -126

The Key: The Reds have dominated the Cubs in recent years, and I expect it to continue here.  The Reds are 51-21 in the last 72 meetings, including 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Chicago.  Cincinnati gave up seven runs in yesterday's loss, but it is 71-27 in its last 98 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.  It is also 29-11 the last three seasons when seeking revenge for an upset loss on the road.  The Reds are 33-16 in Latos' last 49 starts as a favorite and 21-10 in his last 31 starts versus division opponents.  The right-hander is 4-0 (5-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.98 in his last six starts against the Cubs.  The Cubs are 35-74 in their last 109 games versus right-handed starters, 17-42 in their last 59 games following a win and 11-28 in their last 39 Game 3's of a series.  They are 1-10 in Jackson's last 11 starts on regular rest (4 days) of rest and 2-12 in his last 14 starts in the third game of a series.  Take Cincinnati.

6* MLB Mound Mismatch on Giants -148

The Key: San Francisco has the clear advantage at home with Timmy Hudson on the hill.  Consider this: the veteran right-hander is a perfect 16-0 on the money line in home games the last two seasons with his clubs winning these contests by 3.1 runs on average.  Hudson has also had plenty of success versus San Diego in his career, going 7-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 14 starts.  The Padres took Game 1 but are 3-11 in their last 14 games following a win and 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  Rookie Jessie Hahn has been strong in his last two starts but takes a step up in class here.  Take San Francisco.

6* MLB Line Mistake on Rockies -104

The Key: The Rockies have lost seven in a row, but they are in excellent position to end the skid tonight with De La Rosa on the mound.  The Rockies have been a tremendous investment at home in his starts, going 40-11 in his last 51.  They are 18-2 the last two seasons when he gets the start following a loss in their previous game.  Colorado is 9-0 the last two seasons in his home starts against good teams with a win percentage of 54-62%.  It is also 5-0 in his last five starts in the second game of a series.  The Rockies are 4-1 in De La Rosa's last five starts versus the Cardinals, including 2-0 during this span at home.  The Cardinals have lost four of Miller's last six starts, and he's never started at flighty Coors Field.  I believe he's in for a rude awakening against a club that is batting .324 and averaging 6.3 runs per game at home.  The Rockies have been struggling and are being undervalued with De La Rosa on the bump at home as a result.  We'll take advantage of the line mistake.  Take Colorado.

6* Interleague Run Line Rout on Royals +1.5 (-140)

The Key: I missed a big play with the Royals yesterday as they suffered yet another one-run loss, but I'm not hesitating to come back with them catching runs as they've won or lost by a single run in 13 of their last 14 games.  The Dodgers are a poor 25-54 in their last 79 interleague road games, and they are 16-40 in their last 56 interleague road games versus teams with a winning record.  Greinke is one of the best in the game, but the Dodgers are 0-3 in his last three road starts, and he's 0-2 on the money line in two career starts versus the Royals (both in KC).  The Royals are 7-1 in their last eight interleague games, 25-11 in Guthrie's last 36 starts versus a team with a winning record, 15-4 in his last 19 home starts versus a team with a winning record, 10-4 in his last 14 starts as a home underdog and 6-1 in his last seven starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Take the Royals on the run line.

6* AL Run Line Rout on Orioles +1.5 (-155)

The Key: I expect the Orioles to take care of business at home against a Chicago club that is 29-66 in its last 95 on the road, but I'm taking them on the run line for insurance.  Chicago's Chris Sale has strong numbers, but they are a bit skewed because he's made only two starts on the road.  The White Sox are 3-8 in Sale's last 11 road starts and 1-8 in his last nine starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  Chen has been rock solid on the season, and the Orioles are 3-0 all-time in his starts versus the White Sox, during which he's posted a 2.60 ERA.  The Orioles are 7-1 in his last eight starts as a home underdog.  Take Baltimore on the run line.

7* American League Game of the Month on Royals -140

The Key: The Royals have lost three in a row since rattling off 10 straight and are now 1.5 games behind Detroit in the AL Central.  This little slide is sitting well with them, and I expect them to bear down here to salvage a game in the series.  Kansas City's Ventura is in great form.  He's 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts, shutting down the Cardinals, Indians and Tigers.  10 of his 13 starts have been strong as he's allowed three runs or less in the 10.  Seattle's Elias has struggled of late with a 5.50 ERA over his last three starts.  He's been inconsistent, giving up four runs or more in five of his last eight starts.  The Royals are an impressive 39-15 in their last 54 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take KC.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Dodgers -110

The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Josh Beckett, who has a 2.49 ERA on the season, a 2.27 ERA on the road, a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts and an ERA of 2.41 in eight starts versus the Padres.  He should be able to hold down a San Diego club that is batting .214.  Tyson Ross isn't in good current form.  The Padres are 0-3 in his last three starts while he's compiled a 5.00 ERA.  Ross's clubs are 3-14 the last three seasons when he gets the ball as an underdog of +100 to +150.  The Dodgers are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  Expect them to bounce back behind Beckett.

7* MLB Run Line Rout on Royals -1.5 (+133)

The Key: The Royals are 9-1 against the run line in their last 10 games, and they are in excellent position to cover another one here.  The Royals have dropped back-to-back games since winning 10 in a row and will be extremely focused to get back in the win column.  They have been crushing the ball, averaging 6.3 runs over their last 12 games, and the offensive onslaught should continue against Chris Young, who has a 5.18 ERA on the road.  His clubs are 2-6 in his last eight road starts, including 0-3 in his last three.  Jason Vargas has been in great form over his last five starts, and he's had no problem with Seattle lately.  He's 3-0 in his last three starts against the Mariners while giving up only three runs in 20 1-3 innings.  Each of these wins came by at least four runs.  The Royals are 6-0 in their last six Game 2's of a series, 7-0 in their last seven when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game and 7-0 in their last seven after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.  You want to fade AL road underdogs of +150 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or lower on the season when they are matched up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who averages more than 6.5 innings per starts.  Doing so has produced a 61-9 mark the last five seasons that carries a 2.7 average margin of victory.  Take the Royals on the run line.

7* MLB Blowout Game of the Year on Cardinals -160

The Key: The Phillies have had a tough time putting the bat on the ball against left-handed starters.  They are batting only .225 against them and averaging just 2.9 runs.  These struggles are nothing new as the Phillies are 13-27 in their last 40 road games versus left-handed starters.  Expect these struggles to continue as they go up against Jaime Garcia.  He's won his last two starts while allowing one run in 14 innings.  The first four hitters in Philadelphia's lineup - Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley and Howard - are a combined 6 for 39 (.154) against Garcia.  A.J. Burnett doesn't figure to have as much success against the Cardinals.  He's been rocked for 31 runs in his last five road starts against them spanning just 18 innings.  Home favorites of -150 or more that are seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite of -150 or more, provided they have a win percentage of 51-54% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 46-49%, are 46-7 since 1997.  Teams fitting this system have won by 3.1 runs on average.  It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 13-0 the last five seasons.  Take St. Louis.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -141

The Key: The Nationals are 5-0 in their last five home games, 7-0 in their last seven as a home favorite, 4-0 in their last four home games versus right-handed starters and 4-0 in their last four home games versus teams with a losing road record.  I expect all these trends to be extended this evening.  The Nats have the edge on the mound with Zimmermann, who has a 2.98 ERA on the season and a 0.36 ERA over his last three starts.  He also has an ERA of 2.98 in eight starts versus the Braves.  The Braves are 39-13 in his last 52 starts as a favorite.  They are 13-2 the last two seasons when he works on five or six days' rest and 4-0 in his last four starts on five days' rest.  The Braves are 0-4 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter and 1-14 the last two seasons in road games versus an NL starter with an ERA of 3.00 or better.  Take Washington.

6* MLB Early Annihilator on Tigers -149

The Key: Look for the Tigers to avoid the four-game sweep.  They are 8-2 in their last 10 games after losing the first three games of a series and 7-2 in their last nine Game 4's of a series, and they are in excellent hands with Sanchez on the mound.  He's given up three earned runs or less in 13 consecutive starts, and he has a 0.99 ERA in five career starts versus the Royals.  Duffy has an ERA of 3.89 in seven career starts versus Detroit.  Take the Tigers.

7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -103

The Key: Buehrle is having a terrific season for Toronto, but he has had no success against the Yankees.  His clubs are 1-15 all-time in his starts against the Yankees, including 0-12 in his last 12, and he's compiled a 6.02 ERA in these starts.  In addition, the Blue Jays are 2-23 in their last 25 at Yankee Stadium, including 0-14 in their last 14.  Toronto is slumping at the plate, batting an AL-worst .218 since June 7.  Its struggles figure to continue against Whitley, who is 2-0 (5-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.41.  The Blue Jays have never faced him, and that gives him the edge.  Take New York.

7* MLB Mound Mismatch Game of the Week on Tigers -149

The Key: The Tigers have a significant edge on the mound with Scherzer.  They are 45-12 in his last 57 home starts, including 12-0 in his last 12.  They are also 6-0 in his last six starts in the second game of a series and 9-0 in his last nine starts versus Kansas City.  Ventura hasn't pitched on the road in over a month, and I expect that to cause him some problems.  Kansas City is 2-5 in his last seven starts and 1-4 in his last five division starts.  The Tigers are batting .292 at home this season, and I expect them to put some good wood on the ball tonight while Scherzer takes care of the rest.  Take the Tigers.

6* Tuesday Night Interleague Annihilator on Nationals -133

The Key: Keuchel is having a season for Houston, but this is not a good spot for him and the Astros.  The 'stros are 1-10 in the last 11 meetings, and Keuchel will have a tough time shutting down an offense that is batting .285 versus left-handed starters.  Roark, who has a 1.55 ERA at home, a 1.29 ERA over his last three starts and a 0.84 ERA in interleague play, should have an easier time silencing a Houston club that is batting only .235 versus right-handed starters.  The Nationals are 5-0 in their last five games as a home favorite.  The Astros are 39-121 in their last 160 games versus a team with a winning record.  Take Washington.

6* Interleague Early Annihilator on Mariners -134

The Key: San Diego is 1-7 in its last eight, and I expect its struggles to continue this afternoon.  The Padres are 0-3 in Stults' last three starts, during which he's posted an ERA of 9.45.  They are 1-5 in his last six starts overall and 2-6 in his last eight on the road.  It is also worth noting that Stults is 0-4 with an ERA of 7.11 in four day starts this season.  Seattle's Elias, on the other hand, has been hard to pick up during the day, as evidenced by his 2.91 ERA in day starts.  Seattle's offensive numbers aren't very good, but San Diego's are even worse.  The Padres are batting .211 on the road and .198 versus left-handed starters.  Take the Mariners.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -135

The Key: The Royals have won their last seven, but I believe their streak comes to an end this evening.  They are 0-6 in their last six versus Detroit.  Verlander hasn't been at his best this season, but he's been pretty solid at home and will be lacking no confidence against a club he's owned.  He's 17-5 with an ERA of 2.88 in 31 starts versus the Royals.  The Tigers are 3-0 in his last three starts versus Kansas City with two of the wins coming this season.  Vargas has pitched well for the Royals, but he's had issues against Detroit.  He's 2-2 with an ERA of 5.01 in seven starts versus the Tigers.  The Royals are 0-2 this season in his starts versus Detroit.  The Tigers are 64-29 in Verlander's last 93 home starts, 7-2 in his last nine starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 8-1 in his last nine Monday starts.  The Royals are 1-4 in Vargas' last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Detroit also has the edge offensively.  It is batting .290 at home and .285 versus left-handed starters.  Kansas City is batting .263 on the road and .258 versus right-handed starters.  Take the Tigers.

7* NBA Finals Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat +6

The Key: Off back-to-back blowout losses and facing elimination, Miami will respond.  The Heat are 10-0 the last 2 seasons following 2 or 3 consecutive losses, and they have won by an average of 13.4 points in these games.  In addition, the Heat are still 13-1 in their last 14 games following a postseason defeat and 9-1 in their last 10 playoff games following a loss of 11 points or more.  Miami played very well in the first two games of the series in San Antonio and might have went home with a 2-0 lead had LeBron James not ran into severe cramps in a non-air conditioned arena.  The Spurs would love to close this thing out tonight in front of their fans, but the two-time reigning NBA champs won't go quietly into the night.  Take the points.

7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Giants -1.5 (+108)

The Key: After falling in the first two games of the series, the Giants will rise to the occasion this afternoon.  They are an impressive 60-23 in their last 83 games as a favorite of -201 or greater, 15-1 in their last 16 Sunday games and 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first two games of a series.  They also have a significant edge on the mound with Bumgarner, who has a 2.67 ERA on the season and a 1.23 ERA over his last three starts.  Colorado's Nicasio has a 5.70 ERA on the season and a 14.48 ERA over his last three starts.  The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts in the third game of a series and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Rockies (these four victories have come by an average 2.8 runs).  The Rockies are 0-4 in Nicasio's 4 career road starts versus the Giants.  Take San Francisco on the run line.

6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Marlins -122

The Key: After losing the first two games of the series, I expect the Marlins to bear down and avoid being swept.  They have the clear edge on the mound with Alvarez, who has an ERA of 1.47 at home and a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts.  The Marlins are 5-0 in his last five starts and 5-0 in his last five home starts.  Worley is making his season debut for Pittsburgh, and I expect him to show some rust.  He had a 7.21 ERA in 10 starts for the Twins last season and has a 4.30 ERA in seven starts in Triple-A ball this year.  The Pirates are 10-25 in their last 35 in the third game of a series while the Marlins are 8-3 in the third game of a series.  Take Miami.

7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Brewers -120

The Key: The Brewers fell 6-5 yesterday, but they are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss, and the Reds are 2-14 in their last 16 games following a 1-run victory over a division opponent.  Milwaukee's Gallardo is coming off an absolute gem against Pittsburgh, and I believe he builds on that here.  The Brewers are 42-17 in his last 59 starts as a favorite.  They are also 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Reds. Latos is making his first big-league start of the season, and I expect to see some rust.  Latos has a 5.95 ERA in his last three starts against the Brewers, and his clubs are 0-4 all-time in his starts at Miller Park.  The Reds have struggled on the road where they are batting .238 and averaging 3.4 runs per game.  Take the Brew Crew.

6* AL *MOUND MISMATCH* on Orioles -101

The Key: Odds makers have made a mistake by listing the Orioles as the home underdog.  Baltimore fell yesterday, but it is 4-1 in its last 5 games following a loss and 8-2 in its last 10 versus division opponents.  Toronto's Dickey has an ERA of 6.41 on the road, and the Blue Jays are 1-5 in his last 6 road starts, 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite and 1-5 in his last 6 starts in the third game of a series.  Baltimore's Norris has a 2.38 ERA at home, and the Orioles are 5-1 in his last 6 home starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts division starts.  He's 3-0 all-time on the money line in starts versus the Jays with a rock solid 3.18 ERA in these starts.  Dickey has a 4.36 ERA in 8 starts versus the O's and has been rocked for 6 earned runs in two of his last three starts against them.  Take Baltimore.

6* Interleague Annihilator on Angels -116

The Key: Atlanta's Harang is 0-5 with an ERA of 7.59 in seven starts against the Angels.  His clubs are 0-5 in his last five starts against them and lost these games by 6.2 runs on average.  The Angels are very familiar with Harang, having seen him six times the past two seasons.  LA's Wilson has never faced the Braves, and that's to his advantage.  There are a lot of trends in favor of this play: the Angels are 10-2 in their last 12 interleague games, 4-0 in their last four interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 43-19 in their last 62 interleague road games and 20-6 in their last 26 versus NL East foes.  The Halos are also 6-2 in Wilson's last 8 interleague starts and 9-3 in his last 12 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Braves are 0-4 in their last four home games, 0-6 in their last six interleague games and 2-8 in their last 10 games as an underdog.  Take the Angels.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Marlins -116

The Key: The Marlins are 26-11 in their last 37 at home, including 10-2 this season when playing a team with a losing record.  The Fish have crushed left-handed starting pitching.  They are batting .296 and averaging 5.8 runs per game off lefty starters this season.  They are 13-4 in their last 17 games versus lefty starters.  Eovaldi has pitched well, especially at home where he has a 2.49 ERA.  His clubs are 7-2 in his last nine home starts.  Miami's bullpen has been holding up on its end of the bargain as well, and that's significant because the Marlins are 6-0 this season when the bullpen ERA is under 3.00 over the last 10 games.  The Pirates are a very poor 67-149 in their last 216 road games versus clubs with a home winning percentage above .600.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Locke's last four starts, 0-5 in his last five starts versus a team with a winning record and 6-13 in his last 19 road starts.  Stanton bats a team-high .354 against lefty starters, and he's 3 for 5 with a homer against Locke.  Locke is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts versus the Marlins, allowing them to hit .338.  The Pirates are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Miami.  Take the Marlins.

7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Heat -5

The Key: I fully expect Miami to bounce back strong because that is what it has done time and time again.  The Heat are 13-0 in their last 13 games following a postseason defeat, and these 13 victories have come by an average of 14.4 points.  They are 7-0 in their last seven games following a double-digit postseason loss, winning these by 8.3 points on average.  They are also 9-0 in their last nine playoff games following a loss of 11 points or more, winning these by 9.0 points on average.  Miami knows it absolutely cannot afford to head back to San Antonio down 3-1, and it will come out with the intensity we saw in the third quarter of Game 3 from the tip.  Lay the points.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -143

The Key: Following losses in each of the first three games of this series, I expect the Giants to bear down and salvage a game.  The Giants are 5-0 in their last five games after losing the first three games of a series, 8-0 in their last eight Game 4s of a series and 4-0 in their last four Thursday games.  San Francisco is in excellent hands with Hudson on the hill.  His clubs are a perfect 15-0 in his home starts since the beginning of last season and have won them by an average of 2.9 runs.  Hudson has dominated Washington throughout his career (16-5 lifetime with a 2.45 ERA in 29 starts), and he's 3-0 on the money line with an ERA of 0.84 in his last three starts against the Nationals.  Take San Francisco.

7* National League Game of the Month on Giants -125

The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, the Giants will take the field with extra focus and motivation.  The Giants are 6-0 in their last six games after losing the first two games of a series.  Washington's Roark hasn't had his best stuff on the road where he has an ERA of 4.42.  The Nationals are 0-4 in Roark's last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in his last four starts versus teams with a winning record.  The Giants are 3-0 in Cain's last three starts, and he has a rock solid 2.91 ERA at home on the season.  Also, San Francisco is 5-0 in his last five home starts versus the Nationals.  He held them to two earned runs or less in four of these starts.  Take San Francisco.

6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Phillies -125

The Key: The Phillies get the call here due to the dominance Hamels had displayed against San Diego. He's 8-2 with an ERA of 2.39 in 14 starts against the Padres, and the Phillies are 6-0 in his last six starts against them.  He's held them to one earned run or none five times during the six-game win streak. Hamels enters in good form with an ERA of 2.08 over his last three starts.  The same can't be said about Ross, who has a 5.51 ERA over his last three starts.  Ross made his lone start against the Phillies last season and was shelled, giving up six earned in 2/3 of an inning.  That translates to an 80.60 ERA.  The Padres are 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog and 19-46 in their last 65 meetings with Philadelphia.

7* NBA Finals Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -4.5

The Key: Miami worked hard to steal away home-court advantage from the Spurs, and I don't see it giving it right back.  The Heat are a perfect 8-0 at home in these playoffs and have won these games by an average of 12.4 points.  They are 11-0 in their last 11 home playoff games dating back to last season and have won them by an average of 11.6 points.  The home team has had a lot of success in this series.  In fact, it is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the six wins coming by an average of 11.8 points.  Lay the points.

6* AL Central *CA$H COW* on Royals +103

The Key: The Indians are playing their best ball of the season, but they've done the majority of their damage at home.  They are just 12-20 on the road and will have their work cut out for themselves versus the southpaw Vargas.  Cleveland is batting only .238 versus left-handed starters this season and is 2-10 in its last 12 road games versus a lefty starter.  Kluber has been going good for Cleveland.  However, home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 that allowed one run or less last game are 26-11 the last three seasons if they average 4.5 runs per game or less and are up against an AL starter with an ERA of 3.50 or lower.  The Indians are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Royals.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -148

The Key: The Cubs are a horrendous 38-83 in their last 121 road games versus teams with a winning home record, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pittsburgh is 5-0 in its last five series openers, and it has won eight of its last 10 home games versus the Cubs.  Chicago's Edwin Jackson has a 4.59 ERA on the season, a 6.12 ERA on the road and a 6.91 ERA over his last three starts.  The Cubs are 5-17 in Jackson's last 22 starts, 1-7 in his last eight road starts, 0-4 in his last four series-opening starts, 0-6 in his last six starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-8 in his last eight starts on regular rest (4 days).  The Cubs are also 0-2 this season in his starts versus the Pirates.  Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton has an ERA of 3.31 on the season, a 2.39 ERA at home and a 2.81 ERA over his last three starts.  The Pirates are 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Cubs.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* NBA Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Spurs Under 199

The Key: Game 1 went over the total by only 5.5 points according to the line (199.5) I had despite the teams combining to shoot 52.7 percent from the field overall and 25 of 54 (46.3%) from three-point territory.  In other words, the pace greatly favored the under.  Miami knows it must play much better defense if it's going to steal away the home court advantage, and I fully expect it to do so.  Plus, the law of averages is heavily stacked against the teams going off from three the way they did in Game 1.  They combined to make eight more threes than they average.  That's 24 extra points.  If they would have made what they average, we would have seen just 181 total points scored.  Factoring in free throw discrepancies (Miami made eight fewer free throws than it averages and San Antonio made one more than in averages), we still would have seen just 188 total points scored if they made their averages from the foul line.  With Miami tightening the screws defensively and the law of averages ready to swing back in our favor, this one should come in under the number easily.

7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Reds -138

The Key: The Reds are on a 7-0 run in Simon's starts versus clubs with a losing record.  They are on a 9-0 run in his starts versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse, a 9-0 run in his starts versus NL clubs with a batting average of .255 or worse and a 6-0 run versus teams that are getting outscored by an average of 0.5 runs or more per game on the season.  He has a rock solid 3.03 ERA on the season and has been nearly unhittable in the daylight, when he has a 1.96 ERA.  Hernandez has a 4.18 ERA in his starts and an ugly 5.76 ERA in his road starts.  The Phillies are 0-5 in their last five games following a win and 0-6 in their last six after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.  Look for the Reds to win this one comfortably as they get to Hernandez and Simon takes care of the rest.

6* MLB Situational Grand Slam on Royals -102

The Key: This is a good spot for the Royals, who have won three of four and have been enjoying the comforts of their own beds since late Tuesday night.  The Yankees have dropped four of five and are heading out on the road for the first time since May 28.  The Yankees are just 1-5 in their last six series openers, and I look for them to struggle in this spot versus Guthrie, who has a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts.  He's 2-0 in his last two starts versus the Yanks, holding them to two earned runs in 13 2-3 innings during this span.  The Royals are 21-8 in Guthrie's last 29 home starts and 24-10 in his last 34 starts versus a team with a winning record.  New York's Whitley has yet to throw more than 91 pitches, and that puts a lot of pressure on the pen.  Take Kansas City.

7* MLB Run Line Rout of the Week on Rangers -1.5 (+127)

The Key: The Indians were a perfect 6-0 during their recent homestand, but the road doesn't figure to treat them as well.  They are a major league-worst 9-19 on the road, including 0-4 in their last four away from Cleveland.  Their road struggles should continue with Texas giving the ball to Darvish, who has a 1.66 ERA over his last five starts.  The Rangers are 11-2 in Darvish's last 13 starts and 7-0 in his last seven starts on regular rest (4 days).  These 11 victories have come by an average of 4.1 runs.  The seven wins of the 7-0 run have come by 3.1 runs on average.  Cleveland's Bauer has had a rough go on the road.  The Indians are 1-3 in his last four road starts, and he's allowed four runs or more three times during this stretch.  Each of these three defeats came by two runs or more.  Cleveland was lucky to get the one victory during this span since Bauer gave up five runs in 2-3 innings in that start.  Take Texas on the run line.

7* NBA Finals Game 1 "Total" Annihilator Heat/Spurs Under 199.5

The Key: Because this is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, I expect the defensive intensity to be high from the jump.  The Spurs feel like they let one slip away last year and will be extremely focused for Game 1 as a result.  Miami found itself in a hole after losing Game 1 of last year's Finals, and it will be out to make sure that doesn't happen again.  At the end of regulation, 7 of the last 10 games these teams have played have finished at 198 total points or less.  We've seen an average of 193.6 total points scored during this 10-game sample so we are getting a really good number.  Both teams looked to set the tone with defense in last year's Finals, and we saw 180 points in Game 1 and 187 points in Game 2 as a result.  The "under" is 5-0 in the Spurs' last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  San Antonio is 24-9 "under" in home games versus slow-tempo teams that average 76 shots per game or less since 1996.  The "under" is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two in San Antonio.  Lastly, plays "under" when the total is between 190.0 and 199.5 points on teams like Miami that led by 15 or more points at the half of their last game are 36-13 since 1996 provided their opponent has scored 105 points or more in its last two games.  Take the under.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -122

The Key: The Rockies are due to bust out here against Bronson Arroyo, who has a 4.95 ERA over his last three starts.  He was rocked for 6 runs the last time he faced the Rockies and has been touched for at least 6 runs in three of his last five starts against them.  Nicasio has held the D-backs to two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts against them.  The Rockies are 5-1 in Nicasio's last six home starts, 7-1 in his last eight starts following a team loss in their previous game and 6-0 in his last six starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game.  Nicasio has a 3.60 ERA in six home starts, including a 2.50 ERA over his last three.  Take Colorado.

6* AL *CA$H COW* on Yankees -136

The Key: (Condensed writeup due to early start) Tanaka has been baffling everyone, and I expect this trend to continue.  The Yankees are 8-1 in Tanaka's last 9 starts, including 4-0 at home during this stretch.  The Yankees are 45-19 in their last 64 games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Athletics are 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog.

6* AL CA$H COW on Tigers -141

The Key: (Condensed writeup due to early start) The Blue Jays have been rolling, but I expect Verlander to silence them today.  The Tigers are 64-28 in Verlander's last 92 home starts and 38-15 in his last 53 home starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Blue Jays, including 3-0 in his last three overall and 3-0 in his last three at home.  Happ isn't in the same category as Verlander, and the Tigers are 18-6 in their last 24 home games versus a left-handed starter.

6* MLB Situational Grand Slam on Padres -110

The Key: This is a nice spot to back the Padres.  This is the final game of a 10-game road trip for Pittsburgh, and the Pirate players can't wait to get home.  Because they've already won this series, they won't take the field with the same level of focus and intensity.  San Diego has been an excellent investment in spots such as this.  The Padres are 6-1 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series.  They are 12-4 the last two seasons when seeking revenge for two straight home losses to an opponent.  You also want to take favorites of -110 or higher that have an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games and a batting average of .250 or lower on the season when they are matched up against an NL starter with an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20.  Doing so has produced a 90-36 (71.4%) mark the last five seasons.  Liriano and Kennedy are trending in opposite directions.  Liriano has a 5.74 ERA over his last three starts while Kennedy has an ERA of 2.89 over his last three starts.  Take San Diego.

7* MLB Mound Mismatch Game of the Year on Rockies -155

The Key: Colorado has the edge on the mound with Jorge De La Rosa, who is 6-0 with an ERA of 1.80 over his last seven starts.  The only time he didn't earn a victory during this stretch was when rain suspended his outing against San Francisco on May 22.  The Rockies have lost their last four, but they are giving the ball to the right guy.  They are 18-0 the last two seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a team loss.  They are also 10-0 during this span in his starts following two or more consecutive team defeats.  De La Rosa has never lost to the D-backs at Coors Field.  The Rockies are 10-0 in his home starts against them, during which he has posted a 1.79 ERA.  Arizona's Chase Anderson is making his first start at flighty Coors.  Pitchers without much experience there tend to struggle.  He'll have a rough time with a lineup that is batting .342 and averaging 7.0 runs per game at home.  Take the Rockies.

7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -147

The Key: The Cardinals are an impressive 73-28 the last three seasons in home games against teams that have a losing record.  The Cards have dropped five of seven and are struggling at the plate, but the numbers suggest that now's the time to back them.  Consider that St. Louis is 14-1 the last three seasons in home games following a stretch where it has lost five or six of its last seven games.  It is also 17-2 in home games the last three seasons after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span.  The Cardinals are 8-1 in Miller's last nine home starts versus a team with a losing record and 6-0 in his last six starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The Royals are 6-15 in Duffy's last 21 starts versus a team with a winning record.  They are also just 1-6 in their last seven versus St. Louis.

7* Interleague Run Line Rout of the Year on White Sox -1.5

The Key: The White Sox are 6-0 in their last six games after losing the first two games of a series and have won these by an average of 4.2 runs.  They are also 9-2 this season when playing with double revenge, winning by an average of 2.5 run in these contests.  Chris Sale is 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA on the season and has a 0.56 ERA over his last three starts.  He gives the Sox a significant advantage considering San Diego's Eric Stults is 0-4 with a 5.04 ERA on the road.  You want to fade road underdogs priced at +150 or more following a win by two runs or less when they are matched up against an opponent that has scored three runs or fewer in four straight games.  Doing so has produced a 44-6 mark since 1997.  Teams fitting this scenario have lost by an average of 2.9 runs.  The White Sox are batting .274 and averaging 5.2 runs per game against lefty starters.  They should get to Stults and Sale should take care of the rest.

6* Interleague Total of the Week on Rangers/Nationals Under 7

The Key: Yu Darvish has some of the best stuff in baseball, and he should have a ton of success here against a Washington club that isn't familiar with his stuff.  In fact, only one Nationals regular has faced Darvish, who has a 1.52 ERA over his last three starts and a 1.83 ERA in six interleague starts.  The "under" is 5-1 in Darvish's six interleague starts and 19-6-2 in his last 27 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Washington's Tanner Roark has a 2.45 ERA over his last four starts while holding opponents to a .183 average.  He has a 1.19 ERA in 12 career home games and has given up just one run in 19 innings of interleague action.  The "under" is 5-0-1 in Roark's last six home starts. Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -3

The Key: The home team has dominated this matchup, going 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 19 points.  The Thunder have had their way with the Spurs in Oklahoma City where they are 9-0 SU and ATS in the last nine meetings with an average winning margin of 11.1 points.  It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.  We saw the way the Thunder responder following a pair of blowout losses in San Antonio in the first two games of the series, and I expect a similar response tonight.  Lay the points.

7* NL Non-Division Game of the Year on Dodgers -140

The Key: Despite winning the first two games of this series, the Pirates are still only 7-15 in their last 22 road games.  They are 5-13 in their last 18 games as a road underdog, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 105-229 in their last 334 road games versus a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are also 3-9 in their last 12 Game 3s of a series.  It is also worth noting that Pittsburgh is 16-35 in road games following two or more consecutive wins under manager Hurdle.  The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first two games of a series, and I love them here behind Ryu.  The Dodgers are 7-0 in the southpaw's last 7 starts versus the NL Central and 15-3 in his last 18 starts versus a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is batting a dismal .210 versus lefty starters this season.  LA has a much better chance of getting to Cumpton as it is batting .265 versus right-handed starters.  The Pirates are only 27-67 in the last 94 meetings.  Take the Dodgers.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +7.5

The Key: I don’t see an Indiana team that has been knocked out of the playoffs by Miami the past two seasons going down without a fight.  Down 2-3 in their opening series, they beat Atlanta on the road and obviously went on to win the series.  This is a team that has come up big with its back against the wall, as we saw in Game 5.  This is also a team that has been good on the road in these playoffs, going 5-2 SU and ATS in its last 7.  The Pacers lost by 12 points in each of the series’ first two meeting in Miami, but I expect a much stronger performance tonight with their season on the line.  Miami defeated Brooklyn by double-digits in its first two home games of that series.  However, it won by just two points at home in the closeout game.   The Pacers have covered 5 of 8 games when catching points in these playoffs (according to the closing line).  Miami is 13-26 ATS in home games following a road games over the last two seasons.  It is also 1-8 ATS this season following a game where it made 12 3-points shots or more.  Take the points.

6* Interleague Annihilator on Indians -145

The Key: Colorado isn't the same team on the road where it is batting .190 over its last nine games.  Look for its road woes to continue with Cleveland sending Kluber to the hill.  The right-hander has a 2.02 ERA in five starts this month and leads the majors with 48 strikeouts over that span.  The Indians are 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 starts, 11-3 in his last 14 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 interleague starts.  The Rockies are an atrocious 37-78 in their last 115 interleague road games and 5-21 in their last 26 interleague games versus teams with a losing record.  The Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 interleague home games and 7-0 in their last 7 interleague home games versus teams with a winning record.  Colorado's Nicasio has been decent, but hasn't been dominant like Kluber.  The Rockies are 3-7 in his last 10 starts as an underdog and 1-6 in his last 7 road starts versus teams with a losing record.  Take the Tribe.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs -4.5

The Key: The Spurs remember all too well what happened in 2012.  They won the first two games of the Western Conference finals against the Thunder, then lost four straight.  The haunting memory of that outcome assures us San Antonio will be ready to go here.  The home team has dominated this matchup, going 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with an average winning margin of 17.2 points.  In addition, the Spurs are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six home games, winning these by an average of 23.0 points.  The Spurs are 70-46 ATS in all home playoff games since 1996.  They are also 8-1 ATS in home games in the second half of this season versus good teams like the Thunder that outscore their opponents by an average of 3.0 points per game or more.  The Spurs have won by an average score of 110.9 to 92.3 in these games.  Lastly, you want to take home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeking revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided both teams carry win percentages of 60% to 75%.  Doing so has produced a 120-72 ATS mark since 1996.  Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -127

The Key: The Cardinals fell last night, but they are a tremendous 67-29 following a loss going back to the beginning of last season.  They are 38-15 in their last 53 following a defeat.  In addition, St. Louis is a nasty 40-16 in its last 56 at home, and it has even been dominant at home versus top-notch pitching.  The Cards are 32-11 since the start of last season in home games versus NL starters with an ERA of 3.50 or lower.  They have won these games by an average score of 4.6 to 2.5.  San Francisco's Vogelsong had an ERA of 3.20, but it should be noted that his road ERA is 5.31.  He also has a 5.40 ERA in nine starts versus the Cardinals, and his clubs are 1-3 all-time in St. Louis.  Garcia has the superior stuff and enters this contest with tons of confidence following a strong performance in Cincinnati.  He's has a 0.81 ERA over his last three starts against the Giants.  The Cardinals are 14-5 in Garcia's last 19 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Giants are 1-4 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis.  Take the Cards.

7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Heat/Pacers Under 185

The Key: Indiana picked up its defense in Game 4 after allowing the Heat to shoot above 50% in each of the previous three games.  It held Miami to 46.4% shooting, but we saw yet another "over" in the series because it sent Miami to the foul line 34 times.  The Pacers were the top defensive team in the NBA during the regular-season, and I expect them to put forth their best defensive effort of the series in the face of elimination.  Miami would love to close out this series so it can get some extra rest prior to the Finals so it will be lacking no defensive effort either.  With all that's at stake, we should see a defensive battle that comes in "under" the number.  The "under" is 4-0 in the Pacers' last four after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Indiana is 34-15 "under" when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.  The "under" is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Indiana.

6* Interleague Annihilator on Brewers -119

The Key: Gallardo delivered a walkoff double last night, and I expect him to follow up that clutch hit with a clutch performance on the mound.  He missed his last start due to an ankle injury, and the extra time off should do him some good.  The Brewers are 4-0 in his last four starts on seven or more days of rest.  He should also benefit from facing a team that isn't familiar with his stuff.  The Brewers are 6-1 in Gallardo's last seven starts in the third game of a series and 40-16 in his last 56 starts as a favorite.  Milwaukee, however, is familiar with Norris from his days in Houston.  The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 4.45 ERA (Gallardo has a 2.90 ERA at home).  He has also struggled at Miller Park, where he has a 6.23 ERA in four career starts.  Bet the Brew Crew.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -2.5

The Key: Following a decisive Game 3 victory, the Thunder head into Game 4 with momentum and confidence on their side.  You might recall that Oklahoma City lost Games 1 and 2 in San Antonio in the 2012 Western Conference Finals, and then rattled off four straight victories to win the series so that only adds to its confidence level.  Dating back to that series, the Thunder are on an 8-0 SU and ATS run at home versus the Spurs.  All of these victories have come by at least six points with four by 12 or more.  The Spurs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Thunder are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games versus teams winning more than 60% of their games on the road.  Lay the points.

7* AL Game of the Month on Royals -131

The Key: The Royals go back on the road for six games following this series so they will really go after the last two games of this three-game set.  The Astros won Game 1 handily, but they are yet to prove they can be trusted on the road.  They are just 68-168 in their last 236 road games.  They are even 30-77 in their last 107 road games versus a team with a losing record and 27-77 in their last 104 road games versus a team with a winning home record.  The Astros are also 30-74 in their last 104 in the second game of a series.  Houston is 0-4 in scheduled starter McHugh's last four starts, during which he's compiled a 5.16 ERA.  The Royals are 21-7 in Guthrie's last 28 home starts, 11-4 in his last 15 starts as a home favorite, 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  His clubs are 4-1 all-time in his starts against Houston.  Take Kansas City.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +6.5

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a chance to even the series, Indiana will be out for blood this evening.  I especially expect the Pacers to pick things up on the defensive end after allowing Miami to shoot better than 50% in each of the first three games.  Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS defeat and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  It is a perfect 6-0 in its last 6 games following a double-digit loss, winning them by an average of 6.2 points.  Take the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Nationals -132

The Key: I'm fading the Marlins on the road where they are 32-81 in their last 113.  It's also worth noting that they've lost four consecutive series openers and are 0-4 in Eovaldi's road starts this season.  He has a 4.99 ERA in these starts, a 5.28 ERA over his last three starts and a 6.00 ERA in three starts versus Washington.  The Nationals' Roark has a 1.01 home ERA on the season and a 2.19 ERA versus Miami.  Washington is 18-4 in its last 22 home games versus the Marlins, including 3-0 this season.  Take the Nats.

7* Western Conference Finals Game of the Year on Thunder -2

The Key: I'm not ready to count the Thunder out yet.  You might recall that they lost Games 1 and 2 in San Antonio in the 2012 Western Conference Finals, and then rattled off four straight, including a 20-point victory in Game 3, to win the series.  Dating back to that Game 3 win, the Thunder are on a 7-0 SU and ATS run at home versus the Spurs.  All of these victories came by at least six points with four by 12 or more.  Oklahoma City was a tremendous 34-7 at home during the regular season and 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600.  The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.  The Spurs are still 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Thunder.

6* MLB Early Annihilator on A's -128

The Key: Despite losses in three straight, the A's are still 11-4 in their last 15 games.  Look for them to bounce back strong here.  The Athletics are 27-13 in their last 40 road games, 42-20 in their last 62 games as a road favorite and 17-5 in their last 22 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  Toronto's J.A. Happ has a 5.40 ERA at home and a 6.08 ERA over his last three starts.  An Oakland club that is 12-5 against southpaw starters this season while averaging 5.0 runs per game should give him problems.  The Blue Jays are 2-8 in Happ's last 10 home starts, 1-7 in his last eight starts as a home underdog, 1-6 in his last seven starts in the third game of a series and 0-4 in his last four starts versus the AL West.  Drew Pomeranz has been perfect.  The A's are 3-0 in his three starts, during which he has 0.00 ERA.  Oakland also has a significant edge in the bullpen.  Take the A's.