6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Troy +14
The Key: Troy should be the more prepared team as it has had a 6 days to gear up for this contest while Lafayette has had only 4. Troy should also be the hungrier side as it looks to end a two-game losing streak to the Ragin' Cajuns. Troy has won or lost by 14 points or less in 10 straight meetings in the series so it is showing some nice value catching 14 here. Plus, it has been very competitive on the road this season, going 2-3 with two of the losses coming by only 7 points. You want to back road underdogs 7 games or more into the season that average 5.6-6.2 yards per play if they're matched up against a team that allows 5.6-6.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 22-2 ATS mark the last 3 seasons. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Clippers +5.5
The Key: The Clippers got caught looking ahead last night and lost to the Magic. That loss assures us they will be even hungrier when they take the floor this evening. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Heat are coming off a win and cover against the Raptors but are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. You also want to back underdogs that average 103.0 points or more per game if they trailed in their last game by 15 points or more at the half. Doing so has produced a 54-24 ATS mark since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 5.8 points on average but have lost by only 2.1 points on average. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

6* National TV Annihilator on Central Michigan +21.5
The Key: Central Michigan hasn't played since Oct. 19 so it will be chomping at the bit to get back on the field tonight. The Chippewas have been an outstanding post-bye week investment at 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11. Central Mich will be out for some revenge tonight as it was defeated 41-30 at home in last season's meeting. Ball State has actually won the last three meetings, but none of those wins came by more than 14 points. In fact, the Chippewas have won or lost by 17 points or less in 21 meetings dating back to 1992. Now that's a 21-0 trend I can get behind. Ball State has a big showdown with Northern Illinois next Wednesday, and that puts it in a look-ahead spot here. The Chippewas are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings at Ball State, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls +3
The Key: The Bulls haven't played since Nov. 2 when they blew a 20-point lead in a loss to the 76ers so they will be fresh and hungry when they hit the floor tonight. Indiana just played last night in Detroit so it is at a big disadvantage in terms of preparation. The Bulls will also be out to make a statement since they went just 1-3 against the Pacers last season. They did not have Rose, however, and are 14-6 against Indiana with Rose in the lineup. There are plenty of trends supporting this play too. Chicago is 33-12 ATS following an upset loss under coach Thibodeau. It has won by an average of 10.0 points in this situation. The Bulls are also 16-6 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses since the start of last season and 26-9 ATS after a loss by six points or less under Thibodeau. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record. Take the points as the Bulls are in excellent position to hand Indiana its first loss of the season.

6* NBA Bailout on Trail Blazers -121
The Key: This is a tough, tough spot for Houston, which spent a lot of energy trying to get back in the game last night in L.A. Then, it had to make the long flight up to Portland and will be up against a team that has had two full days to rest up and prepare. The Blazers defeated the reigning Western Conference champs in their last game so they will be lacking no confidence. They'll also be lacking no motivation as they were embarrassed with an 18-point loss the last time Houston visited. The Rockets struggled on the road last season, and that has continued this season. They were down by 19 in Utah in their first road game before rallying and then crushed in their second road game against the Clippers last night. The Rockets are 10-25 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread since the start of the 2011-12 season. They are also 9-23 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses during the same time frame. Take Portland.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator (ESPN2) on Ohio +4
The Key: Ohio will want this game just a little bit more as it currently trails Buffalo in the MAC East standings. I'll gladly take the points as the Bobcats are 3-1 in the last four meetings with the loss coming by only one point the last time it visited Buffalo. Both teams are coming off a bye, but Ohio has been the better post-bye investment. It is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games following a bye week while Buffalo is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a bye. In addition, the Bulls are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Quinn when up against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Stunningly, they have lost these contests by an average score of 36.2 to 8.0. Buffalo is 0-8 ATS the last three seasons after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. It has lost by an average score of 39.0 to 18.3 in this situation. The Bulls are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. We'll take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bears +11
The Key: The Bears are missing some key pieces but an extra week of preparation gives them an excellent opportunity to give the Packers a game. You want to take underdogs or pickems that carry a win percentage of 51-60% following an upset loss on the road as doing so has produced a 30-9 ATS mark since 1983. You also want to fade favorites of 10.5 points or more that carry a win percentage of 60-75% if they have covered the spread in at least two of their last three games as doing so has produced a 72-36 ATS mark since 1983. The Chicago defense has struggled, giving up 6.4 yards per play. However, odds makers have consistently overvalued the Packers at home against such defenses. In fact, Green Bay is just 2-10 ATS in home games versus teams that allow 6.0 yards or more per play since 1992. The Packers have won these games but only by an average score of 27.8 to 24.6. Green Bay has dominated the Bears in recent years, but winning by this big of a margin has been rare. Consider that Chicago has won or lost by fewer than 11 points in 13 of the last 17 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavaliers -2
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, look for the Cavs to hand Minnesota its first loss of the season. The Cavs beat the Brooklyn at home in their first game of the season so they have already proven they can beat a more talented team than they'll see tonight on their home floor. Plus, they have had an extra day to rest their legs and game plan for the Timberwolves. Minnesota, on the other hand, just pulled off an upset win at Madison Square Garden yesterday so it has a quick turnaround. The Timberwolves are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a win and 7-18 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 27-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by 9+ points per game since 1996. The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these teams. Lay the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Texans +2.5
The Key: The Colts upset Denver last time out. However, you want to fade road teams that are off an upset win at home if they have a winning record on the season. Doing so has produced a 102-52 ATS mark since 1983, and this system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Most of the times teams come out of their bye week better than they were when they went in, but I don't believe that will be the case for Indy, simply because it won't have leading receiver Reggie Wayne on the field. With one less weapon to worry about, Houston's suffocating defense, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL overall and No. 1 against the pass, will really be able to swarm the Colts. The season hasn't gone as planned for the Texans, but they are clearly better than their record looks. They played the 8-0 Chiefs to a 1-point game on the road last time out. They also took the 7-1 Seahawks to OT. If they find a way to win those games, they're sitting at 4-3. I also can't fail to mention how valuable home field has been in this series. The home team is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 12.8 points. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Magic +6.5
The Key: After a thrilling 1-point win over the reigning NBA champs, a game against the lowly Orlando Magic isn't going to get Brooklyn's juices flowing. Expect the Nets to come out flat here. While beating the Heat is certainly something to brag about, we can't forget that Brooklyn lost its only other road game of the season in Cleveland. We also can't forget that this team has a lot of new pieces, which likely means inconsistency early in the season. Brooklyn swept the Magic last season so Orlando will be lacking no motivation. The Nets are a soft 26-44 ATS after a cover since the 2011 season, and, zooming in, they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Magic are off to a 3-0 ATS start, and I expect them to pick up another cover.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jets +6.5
The Key: Every time the Jets have got knocked down this season, they have responded the following week. They are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS following a loss this season, and I expect them to respond once again Sunday. You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half when they're matched up against an opponent that scored 25 points or more in three straight games. That's because doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark since 1983. Teams fitting this system have been underdogs of 6.8 points on average but have lost by only 1.2 points on average. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last five seasons. The Jets have been tremendous defensively, ranking 6th in the league in total defense with 315.0 ypg allowed. The Saints are one of the top offensive teams in the league, but I don't see them hitting on all cylinders on the road in an outdoor venue against this defense. New Orleans has lost or won by less than 6.5 points in 5 of its last 6 and 20 of its last 25 road games. Take the points.

6* NFL Situational Annihilator on Titans -3
The Key: Situationally speaking, this is a great spot for Tennessee and a bad spot for St. Louis. The Rams put everything they had into Monday's game against Seattle, and they came up short. That loss makes it very difficult for them to be ready to go here on just 5 days' rest. Tennessee, on the other hand, hasn't played since Oct. 20 so it has a huge edge in terms of health and preparation. You want to take road favorites when they are playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as doing so has produced a 36-13 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. These teams have won by an average of 10.3 points. You also want to take road favorites after 2 or more consecutive losses if they carry a win percentage of 40-49% and are matched up against a losing team. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark since 1983. These teams have been favored by 3.1 points on average and has won by 9.8 points on average. This system is a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +6
The Key: Right away, one has to like the fact that home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won 45-55% of their games last season are 40-12 ATS since 1996. This system has already produced a 2-0 ATS record this season. Houston is 2-0, but now it goes out on the road for the first time. The Rockets were a dismal 16-25 on the road last season, and they're visiting a team tonight that was 30-11 at home last season. Last season, the Rockets were only 4-14 ATS in road games versus teams that had a losing record, and they lost these games by 1.0 point on average. The Jazz are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Rockets are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Under the Radar Blowout on Florida Atlantic -4
The Key: 2-6 FAU is laying points against 6-2 Tulane? Odds makers are clearly begging the public to ride the Green Wave, but I'm not going down with that ship. Tulane has rattled off four consecutive upset victories, and it is still catching points against a team that has lost four of its last five games? Clearly, the books are not sold on Tulane. Part of the reason is because the Green Wave haven't been on the road since Sept. 28, and they are just 2-12 in their last 14 road games. But more so, the books are sold on FAU in this spot. The Owls are 7-0 ATS since the beginning of last season after two or more consecutive losses. They are 8-0 ATS since the start of last season following a road loss. In addition, the Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. With the exception of last week's loss at Auburn, FAU has been extremely competitive in its last six games. It crushed USF, took MTSU to OT, nearly upset 6-2 Rice on the road, beat UAB by double-digits and played Marshall to a 1-point game. I think the Owls are ready to break out in a big way. Lay the points.

*I'm aware of the resignation of Carl Pelini and Pete Rekstis. FAU will still be a 6* play. Clearly odds makers don't feel the absence of the aforementioned will be a factor considering the line opened at -3 and has been re-released at -2.5*

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Indiana -9.5
The Key: If Indiana hopes to punch a bowl ticket, this is a game it must have. Back home following back-to-back losses on the road and having had an extra week to prepare, I fully expect the Hoosiers to roll here. We find Minnesota in a big letdown spot as it became bowl eligible last week with an upset win over Nebraska. Satisfied by their accomplishment, the Golden Gophers will come out flat. You want to play against road underdogs that check in off a home win over a conference foe when they are matched up against an opponent that has allowed 31 points or more in two straight defeats to conference rivals. That's because doing so has produced a 27-5 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this system have lost by 15.9 points on average. Also, this system is 6-0 ATS the last three seasons. Indiana is 6-0 ATS all-time in home games under coach Kevin Wilson after one or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a winning road record. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with a 21.8-point average margin of victory. Lay the points.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Syracuse -3
The Key: Syracuse hasn't stepped on the field since Oct. 19 when it was brutally embarrassed by Georgia Tech to the tune of 56-0. The sour taste of that defeat assures us the Orange will be motivated. The fact they enter off a bye assures us they will be prepared. The Demon Deacons gave Miami all it wanted and more last week, but that was a good spot for them as Miami was clearly looking ahead to this week's matchup with Florida State. By and large, Wake hasn't been nearly as formidable on the road. It just 1-5 in its last six road games overall and 1-8 in its last nine conference road games, including 0-4 in the last four. The Orange are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss, 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week. Lay the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon State -3
The Key: USC has been an awful investment on the road. In fact, the Trojans are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games. They are also on a 0-6 ATS slide in Pac-12 road contests and a 0-7 ATS slide in road games after playing a game at home. Additionally, USC is on a 0-7 ATS skid in all games following any home win and is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. The Trojans have also had their problems at Oregon State. They've lost four of their last five trips there, including each of their last three, and are 0-5 ATS in these games. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards -9.5
The Key: Riding high off a shocking with over Miami, Philadelphia is prime for a letdown. Washington, meanwhile, will be extremely hungry after dropping its opener at Detroit. And, the fact it lost by double-digits the last time it hosted the 76ers adds fuel to the fire. Everything went right for the 76ers against the Heat. They raced out to a 19-0 lead, shot the lights out (53.7%) and benefited from 19 Miami turnovers. Additionally, they caught Miami at just the right as it was coming off a big win over Chicago and looking ahead to tonight's game against Brooklyn. It all goes south for Philly here against a hungry Washington squad. The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. The Wizards are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bobcats +3
The Key: Cleveland's upset win over Brooklyn makes it a dead fade tonight. Consider that fading any team off an upset win in the first six games of the season, provided that team closed out last season with five or more consecutive losses, has produced a 30-8 ATS mark since 1996. In addition, the Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Bobcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Charlotte lost by 2 and won by 7 in its two home games against the Cavs last season so I like our chances catching points here.

6* NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on Clippers -6.5
The Key: After laying an egg in Tuesday's opener, I expect the Clippers to be very focused and determined tonight. Historically speaking, this is a great spot for L.A. Favorites in the first six games of the season that check in off an upset loss as a road favorite (they were the designated road team in their opener) are 28-7 ATS since 1996 if they were a playoff team the previous season and lost four or more of their last five games. Teams fitting these specs have been favored by 6.7 points on average and have won 11.2 points on average. This awesome early season system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons. The Clippers have had a day to gear up for this matchup while the Warriors played at home last night and then had to make the trip south. The Warriors won three of last season's four meetings, which provides the Clippers with added motivation tonight. Lay the points.

6* National TV Annihilator on Washington State +11.5
The Key: Washington State has been a nice investment following defeat. In fact, it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss and 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a loss of more than 20 points. The Cougars were outrushed by a massive 381 yards by Oregon last game, but they are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Mike Leach after being outrushed by 125 or more yards. The ASU offense has been dominant in back-to-back blowout victories, but teams headed up by coach Todd Graham are 0-7 ATS all-time in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games. ASU won last season's meeting 46-7, and that can't be sitting well with the Cougars. Washington State has home field on its side this time around, and that has been worth a lot as the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Cougars have won or lost by 10 points or less in nine of their last 10 home meetings with Arizona State. Washington State was a 12-point dog the last time it hosted the Sun Devils, and it won outright by 10 points. Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Dolphins +3
The Key: Miami has lost four in a row since a 3-0 start. However, the two home losses during this stretch came by just three and two points. The Bengals are coming off a blowout win at home over the Jets, but they haven't been the same team on the road where they are 2-2 and haven't won by more than three points. Miami has had Cincy's number, going 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings, including 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two. The Dolphins won last season's meetings in Cincinnati 17-13. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games while the Bengals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games. Also, you want to fade road teams that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they're a good team (60-75% win pct) playing a team with a losing record. That's because doing so has produced a 71-34 ATS record since 1983. Take the points.

6* World Series Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Cardinals +108
The Key: What have the Cardinals done with their back against the wall you ask? They have gone 7-0 when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 7.1 to 3.7. Wacha has shown no signs of coming back down to earth, going 5-0 in his last five starts while allowing only three total runs during this stretch. Lacky hasn't been nearly as sharp. He's given up 3 runs or more in seven of his last nine starts. Wacha outdueled Lackey at Fenway in Game 2, and I expect the same result tonight.

7* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Memphis +3
The Key: Memphis is a better team than its 1-5 record leads you to believe. The Tigers played Middle Tennessee State to a two-point game on the road, and they played 19th-ranked Central Florida to a seven-point game at home. That game was tied with two minutes remaining. Memphis could just as easily be 3-3 right now with a couple pretty nice wins under its belt. At home and motivated by a 0-3 conference start, I love Memphis' chances of pulling off the upset. The Tigers are on a 7-0 ATS run when checking into a contest off three straight losses to conference opponents. The Bearcats haven't been the same team on the road where they are 1-2 (0-3 ATS) with a loss to lowly South Florida. They rolled UConn last time out, but they are on a 0-6 ATS slide following a win by 21 or more points. They are also on a 0-6 ATS skid after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on 76ers +12
The Key: Miami came out flat as expected last night. However, it went nuts in the second quarter and finished 11 of 20 from 3-point range. Off that emotional statement win, on the road and playing back-to-back, I expect a much weaker performance from the Heat. Tonight's opponent won't get their juices flowing, which means Miami will already be looking ahead to Friday's game at Brooklyn. The often overvalued Heat have been a terrible investment following any kind of win. They are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a game where they covered the spread. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are an impressive 55-31 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996. Take the points.

6* NBA Opening Night *CA$H COW* (TNT) on Bulls +4.5
The Key: Chicago will be the more motivated team here. Tonight is about celebrating last season for Miami, which will be getting its championship rings and raising its championship banner. For Chicago, on the other hand, tonight is about sending a message to the Heat. Even without Derrick Rose, the Bulls played Miami tough last season. They split the regular-season series 2-2, and the Bulls were the team that ended Miami's 27-game win streak. The Bulls have had some success against the Heat because of how hard they work at the defensive end. I expect a very gritty performance from Chicago here as they use last year's playoff loss to Miami as motivation. Offense was an issue at times for Chicago in that playoff series, but now Rose is back. Chicago is on a 20-9 ATS run in road games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. It is also 77-54 ATS in road games under coach Thibodeau. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Rams +13
The Key: Seattle is clearly one of the best teams in the NFL, but it is being overvalued as a result. The Seahawks check in off a 34-22 win at Arizona, but they are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a win of 10 points or more over a division rival. The Rams lost starting QB Sam Bradford last week and now must turn to Kellen Clemens. I expect the eight-year pro to play well tonight. The fact St. Louis reached out to Brett Favre's agent is a slap in the face of Clemens, and it provides him with extra motivation to play well. The Rams are 2-1 at home this season, and they have won two of their last three home games against the Seahawks. They pulled off a 19-13 upset win at home against the Seahawks last season and also played Seattle to a 7-point game on the road. The Rams have won or lost by 10 points or less in five of the last seven meetings. The Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 division games and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the points.

7* World Series Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -111
The Key: Boston's Jon Lester hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where he has a 4.18 ERA. The Red Sox are just 6-12 in his last 18 road starts. St. Louis hasn't been as strong against left-handed starters this season, but it is 4-0 in its last four home games versus a southpaw starters. Adam Wainwright has been at his best at home where he has a 2.36 ERA. The Cardinals are 6-0 in his last six home starts overall and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus a team with a winning record. Wainwright has a 1.07 ERA in eight career postseason games - four starts - in St. Louis. Look for the Cards to take care of business behind a gem from their ace.

7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Year on Vikings +10
The Key: The Vikings were embarrassed on national TV Monday night, and they'll be out to save face here. They will be lacking no confidence as they go up against a Green Bay squad they defeated 37-34 at home last season. Christian Ponder is back under center, and he'll be very motivated to show the organization that they should not have given up on him so quickly. He completed 16 of 28 passes for 234 yards with 3 TDs and no picks in last season's home win against the Packers. Minnesota was very competitive in its first four games of the season because it was committed to running the football. It has gone away from that in its last two games and has paid the price. You can bet the Vikings have learned their lesson and that they'll look to run the football here against a team they averaged 208.0 rushing yards per game against last season. The Packers are coming off a 31-13 victory over Cleveland, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points. Also, you want play against favorites that check in off a win of 14 points or more if they are up against an opponent that checks in off two straight defeats of 10 points or more. That's because doing so has produced a 26-7 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams in this situation have been favored by 9.1 points on average but have won by only 2.5 points on average. Home field has been huge in this rivalry as the home side is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Vikings are 6-0 ATS since the beginning of last season versus poor kickoff coverage teams like Green Bay that give up 24.0 yards or more per return. Take the points.

6* World Series Game 4 *CA$H COW* on Red Sox +104
The Key: I expect a strong outing from Clay Buchholz, who has had extra time to rest his shoulder. He was 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA while pitching on at least six days' rest in the regular season. Buchholz has been brilliant on the road, going 6-0 with a 1.76 ERA in eight road starts this season. The Red Sox are 5-0 in Buchholz's last 5 starts versus NL clubs. Yesterday's 5-4 score is significant as the Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. They are also 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-6 in his last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Boston.

6* Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -1
The Key: Off back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the NFL (49ers and Seahawks), the Cardinals will be ready to take their frustrations out on the struggling Falcons. Atlanta ended a 3-game skid with a win over lowly Tampa Bay last week, but the banged-up Falcons face a much tougher task here as they hit the road for the first time since Sept. 22. They are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road this season and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. With Julio Jones out and Roddy White and Stephen Jackson not at 100 percent, this Atlanta offense is not high-octane enough to overcome a defense that's giving up 26.2 ppg. You want to fade road underdogs or pickems that average 23-27 ppg if they scored 24 points or more in the first half last game and are matched up against a team that gives up 18-23 ppg. Doing so has produced a 4-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and a 26-6 ATS since 1983. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the number.

6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Lions -3
The Key: The Cowboys claimed sole possession of first place in the NFC East with last week's 17-3 victory at Philadelphia, but they have been a dead fade following a victory at 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a win. Also, you want to go against road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that held their opponent to 6 points or less last game if they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off a loss of 3 points or less. That's because doing so has produced a 3-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons, an 11-1 ATS record the last 10 seasons and a 23-5 ATS record since 1983. Not much should be read into Dallas' defensive performance against the Eagles as it is 5-22 ATS in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992. It has lost by an average score of 23.9 to 17.1 in this situation. I'll lay the small number with the Lions at home.

6* World Series Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -102
The Key: I expect St. Louis to ride the momentum of its Game 2 victory to a 2-1 series lead. The Cardinals have been nearly unbeatable at home when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. They are 43-12 in their last 55 home games versus a right-handed starter, including 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus AL right-handed starters. The Cards will have an excellent opportunity to extend these runs against Peavy, who has a 5.56 ERA on the road and a 7.98 ERA over his last three starts. Peavy has struggled against St. Louis, going 3-6 with a 4.28 ERA in 11 starts. Boston isn't nearly as familiar with Joe Kelly's stuff. The St. Louis right-hander has an ERA of 2.53 on the season. That's nearly two runs lower than Peavy's 4.40 mark. The Cardinals are 7-1 in Kelly's last 8 home starts, including 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 11-1 in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 6-1 in their last 7 World Series home games. Take St. Louis.

7* C-USA Game of the Year on So. Miss +11.5
The Key: So. Miss is 0-6, but it has played four road games to this point against the likes of Nebraska, Arkansas, Boise State and East Carolina. I believe it has an excellent opportunity to break into the win column here. North Texas won at Louisiana Tech last week, but that's not enough for this team to be trusted laying double-digits on the road. The Mean Green are just 1-7 in their last 8 and 3-15 in their last 18 road games. The North Texas defense has been pretty good the last two weeks, but consider that the Mean Green are 0-7 ATS in road games after holding opponents to 17 points or less in two straight games since they were reinstated to Division 1-A in 1995. They have lost by an average score of 41.0 to 15.9 in this situation. So. Miss was held to 3.64 yards per play last week, but it is 10-2 ATS in home games after being held to 3.75 yards or less per play since 1992. It has won by an average score of 31.2 to 16.3 in this situation. Take the points.

7* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Air Force +20
The Key: Notre Dame hasn't played a true road game since Sept. 14, and it has been far from dominant away from home. The Fighting Irish were favored by 17 at Purdue in their most recent road game, and they only walked away with a 31-24 victory. In fact, they haven't won by more than 17 points in any of their last eight true road contests. I don't like Notre Dame's chances of covering this hefty number on the road against an Air Force squad that has had since Oct. 10 to prepare. You want to take underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games if they're matched up against an opponent that has covered the number in 2 of its last 3 games. That's because teams fitting this situation are 207-125 (62.3%) ATS since 1992. Notre Dame is consistently overvalued. It is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall and 14-34 ATS after having won 4 out of its last 5 games since 1992. The Irish are also only 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 versus teams with a losing record. Take the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +10
The Key: Georgia Tech was our ACC Game of the Week last week. Fueled by three consecutive defeats, it rolled Syracuse 56-0. We'll fade the Yellow Jackets this week, however. First of all, they are 0-6 ATS dating back to 2011 when checking into a game off a home win over a conference opponent. They have lost by an average score of 34.0 to 23.6 in this situation. I expect Virginia to be extremely motivated here after it blew a 22-0 lead against Duke last week. Last season's 56-20 loss at Georgia Tech will only add fuel to the fire. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are also 9-1 in their last 10 home games against Georgia Tech. Lastly, you want to fade teams like Georgia Tech that held their last opponent to 225 total yards or less if they have a +/- 0.6 yards per play differential and are matched up against a team that is outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 2-0 ATS record this season and a 15-1 ATS mark the last 5 seasons.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on BYU -6.5
The Key: I don't trust inexperienced Boise State backup QB Grant Hedrick on the road against against a stout BYU defense that is giving up just 17.7 ppg at home. The Cougars have shown that they will rise to the occasion against stiff competition. They are 7-0 ATS the last three seasons when matched up against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). They have won these games by an average score of 29.3 to 18.0. BYU is also 6-0 ATS the last three seasons when checking into a game after having won 5 or 6 out of its last 7 games. It is 7-0 ATS the last three seasons after averaging 475 or more total yards over their last 3 games. And, it is 8-0 ATS the last three seasons after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. Lay the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Buccaneers +7
The Key: Tampa Bay is 0-6, but it's not like it has been getting pummeled. Just two of its losses have come by double digits with three coming by three points or less. And it's not like the Bucs have been playing a bunch of cupcakes. They have played New Orleans, the New York Jets and New England Patriots. Carolina has benefited from a much lighter schedule. Since opening against Seattle, it has played Buffalo, the New York Giants, Arizona, Minnesota and St. Louis - all losing teams. Carolina has struggled on the road where it is just 9-22 in its last 31. It has also struggled against Tampa Bay, going 2-4 in the last 6 meetings, including 0-2 last year. It is also worth noting that Tampa Bay has won or lost by 7 points or less in 4 of its last 5 home games versus the Panthers. Tampa Bay stifled Carolina's running attack last season, holding the Panthers to only 10 yards on the ground in the home meeting. The Bucs still boast a nasty run defense, one that ranks 5th in the league. I believe the run defense will be the key to a cover tonight.

6* World Series Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -118
The Key: Wacha has been sensational over his last four starts, but I have to go with the experience of Lackey here. Lackey has been terrific all season at home where he's 7-3 with a 2.71 ERA. The Red Sox are 6-1 in his last 7 home starts. In addition, he's pitched in the World Series before, earning a 4-1 victory in Game 7 against San Francisco as a rookie in 2002 while pitching for the Angels. That performance shows you the stuff Lackey is made of. We saw a dominant performance from him in the ALCS, outdueling Verlander, and I expect another one here. Wacha hasn't been scared of the moment thus far, but the stakes have been raised here. This is the biggest game of his life, in arguably the most legendary ballpark on the planet against the best hitting team he's seen. I believe he'll finally succumb to the pressure. The Red Sox are 5-0 in Lackey's last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record. They are 9-0 in their last 9 World Series games and 5-0 in their last 5 World Series home games. Take Boston.

6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Middle Tennessee State +8
The Key: MTSU has lost three in a row and was smoked at North Texas last time out, but I expect a much stronger performance from the Blue Raiders at home tonight. The Blue Raiders are 2-1 at home this season with the loss coming by just 7 points against a very good East Carolina squad. They covered as an 8-point dog in that game. While Marshall is unbeaten at home, it is 1-2 on the road with the win coming by just 1-point against a 2-5 Florida Atlantic squad. By my count, the Thundering Herd are just 6-19 in their last 25 on the road, and they are 10-23 ATS as a road favorite since 1992. It is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Marshall has played clean football the last two weeks, committing just 1 turnover in each game. One would think that's a good sign, but it's not. It is 0-9 ATS under coach Holliday after 2 consecutive games of committing 1 or less turnovers. The Herd have lost by an average score of 34.3 to 27.6 in this situation. Lastly, the Blue Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week. Take the points.

7* World Series Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -118
The Key: Boston has the edge in Game 1 with southpaw Jon Lester on the bump. He is 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 home starts this season. He provides problems for a St. Louis lineup that is batting just .246 and scoring only 3.9 runs per game off left-handed starters this season. The Cardinals are 0-5 in their last 5 games versus AL southpaw starters. Adam Wainwright hasn't been quite as sharp on the road where he has a 3.31 ERA. Boston is batting .274 and scoring 5.3 runs per game off right-handed starters this season. The Cardinals are 0-4 in Wainwright's last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 World Series games and 4-0 in their last 4 World Series home games. The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff road games and 2-5 in their last 7 World Series road games. Take Boston.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator on Arkansas State +3
The Key: Arkansas State blasted Louisiana-Lafayette 50-27 on the road last season, but road wins have been a rarity in this series. That bodes well for the Red Wolves this evening. The home team is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings. Also, Arkansas State is 5-1 in its last six home games against the Ragin' Cajuns with the lone loss coming by just three points. Not only are the Red Wolves at home where they are on a 4-1-1 ATS run, but they are coming off a bye and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Red Wolves are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Giants -3
The Key: The Giants are off to a miserable 0-6 start, but only two of the losses have come at home. They play four of their next five at home so they believe they can get back on track. They have had 10 days of preparation time because they played the Thursday game last week. The extra time off should serve them well both physically and mentally as such a rough start can be very draining. The Vikings are off to a rough start as well, and I believe they'll struggle offensively tonight with Josh Freeman expected to get the start. He hasn't had very long to learn a new system and was playing very poorly in Tampa Bay. The New York defense has struggled, but the Minnesota stop unit has been even worse. It ranks dead last in the NFL with 419.6 yards allowed per game. The Vikings have especially struggled against the pass, which bodes well for Eli Manning and his group of talented receivers. Interceptions have been an issue for the two-time Super Bowl MVP, but it's only a matter of time before he finds his groove, and I believe it's tonight against a poor defense. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Also, the Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday Night Football contests. Lay the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Colts +7
The Key: While I consider the 6-0 Broncos to be a legit Super Bowl contender, I can also acknowledge the fact they are yet to play an opponent of the caliber of the Colts. None of Denver's wins have come against teams that currently have a winning record. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has impressive wins over the 49ers and Seahawks. I'm confident we'll see a strong effort from the Colts here as they bounce back from their worst performance of the season. Indy is 6-0 SU and ATS since the beginning of last season when it checks into a game following a defeat. It has won by an average score of 22.8 to 15.5 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Colts are 7-0 SU and ATS since the start of last season in home games that come after the first month of the season. They have won these contests by an average score of 25.6 to 20.0. Denver has the worst pass defense in the NFL. It is giving up 337.7 yards per game. That bodes well for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Denver has moved the ball with ease to this point, but that figures to change here as it goes up against the NFL's 5th-ranked pass defense. The Colts also rank 4th in scoring defense, holding opponents to 16.3 points per game. Take the points.

7* NFL Public Burial Game of the Month on Texans +7
The Key: The public is all over the 6-0 Chiefs, but I'm not ready to drink the Kansas City Kool-Aid. The Chiefs' wins have come against the Jaguars, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Titans and Raiders. None of these teams have a winning record, and they are a combined 11-25 on the season. The Texans have lost four in a row since winning their first two, but three of their losses (Baltimore, San Francisco, Seattle) have come against who I would consider to be quality opponents. And, Houston really should have defeated the Seahawks, who is arguably the best team in the NFL. Turnovers have been an issue for the Texans, but Matt Schaub, who has been the worst offender, isn't expected to play. Regardless if it's T.J. Yates or Case Keenum, the Texans will look to pound the football against Kansas City's 23rd-ranked run defense. Houston has the 6th-best rushing attack in the league. The Chiefs haven't been very impressive offensively, ranking 25th in total offense with 326.3 yards per game. Yards will be tough to come by against a Houston stop unit that leads the league with 252.8 yards per game allowed. This line has everything to do with public perception, and I'm confident the Texans are better than they have shown and the Chiefs aren't as good as their record looks. You want to fade teams that are coming off a victory of 14 points or more if they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off two consecutive defeats of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 31-10 ATS result the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 14-4 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* AFC East Game of the Week on Jets +3.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Patriots following last week's thrilling comeback win against the Saints. The Jets suffered a letdown of their own last week following a big win over the Falcons, but they'll have no trouble getting up for this one. The Jets will be out to end a five-game losing streak to the Patriots. Two of the last three games between these two division rivals have been decided by three points. The Jets played New England to a three-point game in the season's first matchup despite four turnovers because their defense held Tom Brady and company to just 232 total yards. Geno Smith is more polished and confident than he was back in Week 2, and the Patriots are in worse shape defensively following the losses of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. The defense is also expected to be without Tommy Kelly and Aqib Talib. New England's offense is also yet to really get going, and it looks like Brady won't have Danny Amendola this week. The Jets are 16-4 ATS in home games following a home loss since 1992. They have won by an average score of 22.8 to 15.6 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NFL Situational Annihilator on Jaguars +9.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Chargers. They're feeling good about themselves following a big win over the Colts, but now they have to travel clear across the country on a short week to face a Jacksonville team that gained confidence with a good showing in Denver. We saw how unmotivated the Broncos were to play Jacksonville last week, and I expect a lethargic performance from San Diego here as well. The Chargers have lost their last two on the road to the Titans and Raiders - teams not considered to be playoff contenders. San Diego does have one road win this season, but that came by only three points in Philadelphia so we are getting good line value with the Jaguars catching over a touchdown. The Chargers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. You also want to take underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 points or less per game after a game where they allowed 35 points or more. Doing so has produced a 55-26 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Lastly, Jacksonville is 10-2 ATS all-time after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games. This situation was live last week, and the Jags got the easy cover.

6* Pac-12 Bailout on Cal +10.5
The Key: This is a good spot for Cal as it goes up against an Oregon State squad that will be looking ahead to next week's matchup with Stanford. Because Oregon State put a 62-14 beating on the Golden Bears last season, it will not give them its full attention. The memory of that beating, on the other hand, will be all the motivation Cal needs. You want to go against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points if they outgain their opponents by an average of 75.0 yards per game and have outgained their last two opponents by 175 yards or more. That's because doing so has produced a 42-15 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Beavers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win of more than 20 points. The Golden Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Lastly, the home team is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings.

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Arizona -4
The Key: You want to fade road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent when they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off two consecutive losses to conference foes while allowing 31 points or more in each. Doing so has resulted in a 26-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Utah upset Stanford last week, but you want to go against teams in Weeks 5-9 that are off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 points or more. That's because doing so has produced a 28-5 ATS record the last five seasons. Lay the number.

6* ALCS Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -116
The Key: Boston won Game 2 of this series despite a poor performance from Buchholz. That performance cannot be sitting well with the Red Sox ace, and I expect him to bounce back strong this evening. Scherzer dealt a gem in Game 2, but it wasn't enough as Boston was able to rally late. I don't expect Scherzer to be quite as good this time around. He's fresh in Boston's mind and has a 6.20 career ERA against the Red Sox. The Sox are 15-3 in Buchholz's starts this season. They are 24-5 since the beginning of last season in his starts as a favorite of -110 or higher. Boston is 6-1 in Buchholz's last 7 starts versus the Tigers, including 4-0 in his last 4 at Fenway. The Tigers are 0-3 in Scherzer's last 3 starts at Fenway. The Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 home games versus the Tigers. Bet Boston.

6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Illinois +12.5
The Key: Wisconsin put its bye week to good use and smoked a Northwestern team that was clearly not over its loss to Ohio State. I expect Illinois to put its bye to good use Saturday. The Badgers may have rolled the Wildcats, but they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 20 points. Wisconsin boasts one of the top running attacks in the country, but you want to fade favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that average 230.0 rushing yards per game or more if they averaged 5.5 yards per rush or more last game and are matched up against a team like Illinois that allows 190.0-230.0 rushing yards per game. Doing so has produced a 34-11 ATS mark since 1992. This system is 10-1 ATS the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia -2
The Key: This is a game the Cavaliers have had circled. They were crushed 42-17 at Duke last season and will be out for some serious revenge as a result. The home team has had the edge of late, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings. Virginia has won eight of its last 10 at home versus Duke, which hasn't fared well on the road. The Blue Devils are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games played on a grass field. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last six road games in the second half of their schedule. Lay the points.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech -8
The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats, I expect Georgia Tech to roll Saturday. It doesn't bode well for Syracuse that it is coming off a big upset win at NC State. That's because the Orange are 0-8 ATS since 1992 following an upset win of 14 points or more. They have lost by an average score of 39.5 to 15.0 in this situation. In addition, the numbers say to fade any team in Weeks 5-9 that checks in off a win over a conference foe as an underdog of 6.0 points or more. Doing so has produced a 60-30 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Orange are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an upset victory over a conference opponent. Lay the points.

6* SEC Game of the Week on Florida -3
The Key: Mizzou is prime for a letdown following last week's big win over Georgia, and to make matters worse it won't have starting QB James Franklin under center. That means Florida's vaunted defense will get to tee off on the inexperienced Maty Mauk. The Tigers are 3-13 ATS in home games off a win against a conference foe under coach Pinkel. They fall to 1-8 ATS in this situation if the win was by 10 points or more. Lay the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on West Virginia +6.5
The Key: This is a highly motivated spot for West Virginia. The Mountaineers were embarrassed 73-42 at Baylor in their last game. They gave up 864 yards in the contest. As if that defeat doesn't provide enough motivation, the Mountaineers will also draw from last season's 49-14 loss at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 6-0, but they have played a very soft schedule to this point. Keep in mind that West Virginia upset Oklahoma State and gave Oklahoma all it wanted. I think Texas Tech won't be able to help but look ahead to next week's revenge game at Oklahoma. The Sooners blasted the Red Raiders 41-20 last season. It is also to West Virginia's benefit that it has had an extra week to prepare. The Mountaineers were outgained on the ground by 350 yards by Baylor, but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1992 after being outrushed by 200 yards or more. You also want to take any team that has allowed an average of 525.0 yards or more in its last three games if it is an average offensive team that averages 4.8-5.6 yards per play and is matched up against a good defensive team that allows 4.2-4.8 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 25-5 ATS result since 1992. This system is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NLCS *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals +1.5 -150
The Key: The Cardinals are showing value catching runs at this price. They are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home underdog and 12-0 this season in home games following a day off. The Dodgers are 0-7 in their last 7 League Championship road games. They are also 0-4 in Kershaw's last 4 starts versus the Cardinals. He was hit hard in two of these starts and got no run support in the other two. Wacha is 3-0 with an 0.42 ERA in his last three starts and outdueled Kershaw in Game 2. The Cardinals squandered a 3-1 series lead last fall against the Giants, and they do not want to see this thing reach a Game 7. I expect them to be very focused and hungry tonight.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights (ESPN) on Central Florida +13
The Key: UCF is being undervalued by oddsmakers. The Knights went on the road and defeated Penn State. They also played South Carolina to a three-point game. This is clearly a team to be reckoned with. One of the reasons oddsmakers have overvalued Louisville is because of the one like opponent these two have played. UCF defeated Florida International 38-0 while Louisville beat FIU 72-0. What must be mentioned here is that FIU was UCFs first road game of the season clear back in Week 2, and the final score could have been worse as the Knights led 24-0 at the half. Louisville got the Golden Panthers at home in its fourth game and never called off the dogs, looking to boost Bridgewater's Heisman candidacy and impress pollsters. I'm here to tell you, UCF has what it takes to give the Cardinals a game. The Knights are 14-4 ATS all-time under coach O'Leary when they enter a contest with four wins in their last five games. Louisville is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Strong after outrushing an opponent by 125 or more yards in its last game. Take the points.

7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals +7
The Key: In case Arizona's 32-20 loss at San Francisco doesn't provide enough motivation, a 58-0 loss the last time it faced the Seahawks certainly will. The Cardinals have been very resilient of late. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Seahawks haven't been the same team on the road where they struggled with Carolina and Houston and lost to Indianapolis. Arizona, on the other hand, has been at its best at home where it defeated a good Detroit team and clobbered Carolina 22-6. Home field has been big in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Arizona. Teams headed up by coach Arians are 8-0 ATS all-time at home, winning by an average score of 24.0 to 17.4. Take the points.

6* ALCS Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Tigers -110
The Key: Boston's Lester hasn't been nearly as good on the road, where he has a 4.21 ERA. The Red Sox are 3-12 in his last 15 road starts versus AL opponents, including 0-4 in his last 4. Lester doesn't have very good numbers against Detroit (4.24 ERA), and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 2-3 innings in his lone start at Detroit this season. Detroit has hit lefties well all season and is 7-0 in its last 7 games versus a left-handed starter and 5-0 in its last 5 home games versus a left-handed starter. Detroit's Sanchez has a 3.04 ERA at home, and he baffled the Red Sox in Game 1, throwing six no-hit innings. He's baffled the mighty AL East all together as the Tigers are now 6-0 in his last six starts versus AL East opponents. Sanchez has the kind of stuff that's really tough to hit when you're not familiar with it. The Red Sox have seen him once this while the Tigers have seen Lester three times this season and five times the last two seasons. Take Detroit.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator (ESPN) on North Carolina +9.5
The Key: North Carolina will be hungry when it takes the field Thursday evening. The Tar Heels have lost their last three games and are 0-2 in ACC play. Keep in mind that their two ACC defeats (Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech) came on the road, and North Carolina has been a much better home team. In fact, the Tar Heels have won or lost by 7 points or less in 40 of their last 45 home games. UNC defeated Miami last season to improve to 4-2 in the last six meetings. It has also won three of its last four home games against the Hurricanes. The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take the points.

6* NLCS Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -166
The Key: It's win or go home for the Dodgers, and I like them to stay alive behind a strong performance from Greinke. The Dodgers are 12-2 this season in his home starts. They are 10-1 in his last 11 starts when working on regular rest (4 days). They are also 9-1 the last 10 times he's gotten the ball following a team loss and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Greinke hasn't allowed more than 4 hits in any of his last four starts while not allowing a single home run during this stretch. Kelly has given up 5 hits or more in each of his last three starts. The Cards lost Kelly's only road start against the Dodgers while Greinke's clubs are 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus St. Louis.

6* NCAAF National TV Annihilator (ESPN2) on UL Lafayette +5
The Key: ULL is averaging 459.2 yards per game, and it averaged 7.53 yards per play in its last contest. Both numbers are extremely significant considering road underdogs that average 450 yards or more per game and gained an average of 7.25 yards or more per play last game are 23-3 ATS the last three seasons. The Ragin' Cajuns outgained WKU 582-382 in last year's 31-27 win, and the margin would have been bigger had it not been for four turnovers. Turnovers haven't been much of an issue for ULL this season, and they have committed only one in each of their last four games. The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, have 18 giveaways on the season and have committed at least two turnovers in five games. ULL is 6-0 ATS under coach Hudspeth in road games against teams with a winning record. It is also 7-0 ATS under Hudspeth after gaining 325 or more passing yards in its last game and 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards per game. Take the points.

7* ALCS Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -156
The Key: The Tigers are 7-1 in their last eight home games versus Boston, and I expect their home dominance over the Red Sox to continue with Verlander on the mound. The big right-hander has been unbelievable down the stretch. He hasn't given up a single run in his last four starts. The Tigers are 3-0 in his last three home starts against the Red Sox, and he didn't allow a run in two of those. Detroit is also 15-1 all-time in Verlander's home starts in the second half of the season versus teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 runs or more per game. The Tigers have won by an average score of 6.6 to 2.4 in this situation. Boston's Lackey is struggling. He's given up at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts. He's struggled all season on the road where he is 4-10 with a 4.48 ERA in 16 starts. The Red Sox are 1-5 in his last six road starts. His clubs are also 0-4 in his last four starts against the Tigers. Take Detroit.

7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Chargers +2.5
The Key: The Chargers are coming off a disappointing performance at Oakland, committing five turnovers in a 27-17 loss. However, they are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games following defeat, winning these by 8.0 points on average. Also, you want to fade road teams that scored 30 points or more in their previous game when they're up against a team that was held to 3 points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced an 84-43 ATS record the last 10 seasons. It is worth noting that this system is 4-1 ATS this season. San Diego has been terrific at home for years, going 41-17 in home regular-season games dating back to the 2006-07 season. Also, the underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams. Riding high off a big win over Seattle and with Denver on deck, this is a sandwich game for the Colts. Take San Diego.

6* NLCS Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Dodgers +1.5 -155
The Key: Each of the Dodgers' last six defeats have come by a single run, and three of St. Louis' last four wins have come by a single run. With this in mind, I believe the Dodgers +1.5 is the strongest play for Game 3. Wainwright has been sensational down the stretch. The Cardinals have won his last seven starts, but keep in mind that only one of those came on the road. Wainwright hasn't been quite as good on the road (3.36 ERA) this season, and the Cardinals have lost four of his last seven road starts. The Cards are also 1-4 in Wainwright's last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 6-15 in their last 21 road games versus a team with a winning record, 1-4 in their last five playoff road games, 6-13 in their last 19 League Championship road games and 3-7 in their last 10 road games versus a left-handed starter. LA Southpaw Ryu has been at his best at home where he has a 2.61 ERA. The Dodgers are 11-4 in his last 15 home starts, 6-1 in his last seven starts as an underdog, 5-0 in his last five starts versus the National League Central and 4-0 in his last four home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 playoff home games. Take LA on the run line.

7* ALCS *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -110
The Key: Scherzer will likely end up with the AL Cy Young, but there's a good chance he wouldn't have had Buchholz not missed a chunk of the season. Both pitchers have spectacular numbers on the season, but Buchholz has the better track record in the team matchup. He has a 3.76 ERA in eight starts against the Tigers. The Red Sox are 5-1 in his last six starts against them, including 3-0 in his last three at home. He has held the Tigers to three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts against them. Scherzer has a 7.02 ERA in eight starts versus the Red Sox. His clubs have lost five of those starts, and he's 0-2 in his last two at Fenway. He's given up five earned runs or more in half of his starts against Boston. The Red Sox fell in Game 1, but they are 5-0 the last five times Buchholz has received the ball following a team loss. They are also 4-0 in their last four when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game and 6-0 in Buchholz's last six starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Take Boston.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texans -7
The Key: The season has not gone as planned thus far for a Houston team with Super Bowl aspirations, but I believe we'll see a championship-caliber performance from the Texans here. They've lost three in a row with their most recent defeat being a brutal 34-3 loss at San Francisco, and they'll be extremely motivated as a result. Houston is the top defensive team in the league, allowing only 260.2 yards per game. It also ranks No. 1 in pass defense, which is significant because the Rams rely heavily on the passing game. The Houston stop unit has done its job, and the offense has been solid as well, ranking 7th with 390.8 ypg. Unfortunately, turnovers have been an issue. QB Matt Schaub knows he has to play better, and I fully expect him to do so against a St. Louis defense that ranks 23rd in the league with 382.4 ypg allowed. Plus, the Rams have really struggled against the run, ranking 29th with 126 ypg allowed. This means Arian Foster could be poised for a huge game. The Rams are on a 1-12 ATS slide in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 375 yards or more per game. They are also on a 0-7 ATS skid in road games versus dominant ball control teams that average 32+ minutes of possession time and 21+ first downs per game. The Rams have lost these seven games by an average score of 27.3 to 8.9. Lastly, you want to play against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game when they're up against an opponent that was held to 3 points or less in the first half last game. Doing so has produced an 84-42 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is already 4-0 ATS this season. Take Houston.

6* NFC *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +2
The Key: Motivated by an 0-4 start where three of the losses came by three points or less, and having had a bye week to prepare, Tampa Bay is in great position to break into the win column. All four of Tampa Bay's losses have come to winning teams (Jets, Saints, Patriots, Cardinals). The Bucs played the 5-0 Saints to a two-point game at home so there's no doubt they have what it takes to beat the Eagles. Philly's two wins have come against the struggling Redskins and Giants, who are a combined 1-8. In its two games against winning teams (Chiefs and Broncos), it was smoked by double digits in each. Mike Glennon will be making his second career start, but I'm expecting a solid performance against a defense that ranks 31st in the league with 434 ypg allowed. The Eagles have gone 19 games without recording back-to-back wins. They are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Take Tampa Bay.

6* AFC *CA$H COW* on Steelers +3
The Key: This is a letdown spot for the Jets, who are coming off a big Monday night win in Atlanta and have had only five days to prepare for a Pittsburgh squad that's coming off a bye week. There's still a lot of games left to be played, and this proud Pittsburgh franchise isn't about to pack it in. The Steelers have remained sound defensively, ranking 10th in the league with 321.8 ypg allowed. They are fifth against the pass and should have plenty of success against New York rookie QB Geno Smith. The Steelers have terrorized rookie signal callers under DC Dick LeBeau, going 16-2 against teams starting rookie QBs during his watch. The Steelers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games versus a team with a winning home record while the Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall versus losing teams. Road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season, are 64-31 ATS the last 10 seasons. Also, road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 26-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take Pittsburgh.

6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -138
The Key: Sanchez was the AL ERA leader, but I don't trust him as much as Lester here. The Tigers are 0-3 in his last three starts, a stretch where he has a 5.65 ERA. He gave up 6 runs in 4 1-3 innings in his ALDS start. Sanchez's clubs are just 2-11 in his starts in the second half of the season versus good teams with a win percentage of 54-62% over the last two seasons. Lester easily won his ALDS start, while giving up just 2 runs in 7 2-3 innings. He's held opponents to 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Lester has been lights out at home where he has a 3.03 ERA. The Red Sox are 12-2 in his home starts this season, including 4-0 in his last 4. The Sox are also 3-0 in his last three starts against the Tigers. He gave up just 1 run in 7 innings while striking out 9 and walking nine in his lone home start against the Tigers this season. The Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 and 36-15 in their last 51 home games versus Detroit. Bet Boston.

6* Saturday Night National TV Annihilator (ESPNU) on Georgia Tech +7
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Virginia Tech and Miami, and further fueled by last season's 41-17 home loss to BYU, Georgia Tech will be all business when it takes the field Saturday evening. BYU had success slowing down Georgia Tech's running game in last season's meeting, but it returns just four starters from that defensive unit and is yet to be tested on the ground the way it will here. The Cougars allowed over 5.0 yards per carry last week, and I expect them to be even more exposed by a team that's averaging 300.0 rushing yards per game. Both teams put a big emphasis on running the football. That keeps the clock moving and makes these 7 points even more valuable. The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss while the Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win. The Yellow Jackets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 versus Independents while the Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the ACC. The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 6-0 ATS since the beginning of last season after playing their last game on the road. They have won by an average score of 41.5 to 22.5 in these six instances. BYU is only 4-13 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games since 1992. Take the points.

6* C-USA Game of the Week on Texas-San Antonio -1.5
The Key: As if back-to-back double-digit losses to Houston and Marshall don't provide enough motivation, Texas-San Antonio lost 34-14 to Rice last season. That loss assures us the Roadrunners will be out for some serious revenge. Rice pulled off an upset overtime win at Tulsa last week, and that was a big revenge spot because it lost 28-24 at Tulsa last season. That big win sets the Owls up for a letdown here. The Roadrunners have been a terrific investment at 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 20 points. It's also worth noting that the Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record. Lay the number.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Purdue +14.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are heading out on the road for the first time this season after enjoying the comfort of their home field for five games. Purdue will benefit from having had a bye week to prepare and should be very focused after a disappointing 55-24 home loss to Northern Illinois in its last game. The Cornhuskers are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record. The Boilermakers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. Nebraska put a hurting on Illinois last week, but it is just 15-33 ATS in road games off a home win by 17 points or more since 1992. Also, you want to take underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games when they're up against an opponent that has covered the spread in two out of its last 3 games. Doing so has produced a 206-121 (63%) ATS record since 1992. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Lastly, Nebraska is 5-15 ATS after covering the spread in 2 of its last 3 games under coach Pelini. Take the points.

6* NLCS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -122
The Key: I like the Dodgers in Game 1 with Greinke on the hill. The former AL Cy Young has been dialed in for months, and he has a strong track record against the Cardinals. He has allowed two earned runs or less in 13 consecutive starts. The Dodgers are 12-0 this season in Greinke's starts versus poor power teams that average 0.9 home runs or fewer per game. These teams have been held to 1.6 runs on average in these games. Greinke is 3-0 in his last three starts versus the Cardinals with the last two wins in St. Louis. He has given up a total of three runs in 19 1-3 innings in these starts. He is 8-2 in his last 10 starts versus the Cards, holding them to two earned runs or less in eight of these. The Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Take the Dodgers.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Cincinnati -20.5
The Key: Motivated by last week's ugly upset loss at South Florida, the Bearcats will not spare the lowly Owls this evening. Cincinnati went on the road and handed Temple a 24-point beating while outgaining the Owls 472-267 in last season's meeting, and this beating has the potential to be even worse. Temple ranks 122nd in the nation in total defense with 518.0 yards allowed per game. Offensively, it ranks 118th in scoring (15.8 ppg) and 105th in total yards (342.4 ypg). The Bearcats have been lights out defensively, ranking fourth in the land with 251.0 ypg allowed. They average 453.8 yards and 31.8 points per game, and those numbers jump to 547.0 and 54.0 when playing at home. The Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Owls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points.

7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Air Force +4
The Key: Air Force has lost five in a row, but three of those were on the road and the two home losses came against quality Utah State and Wyoming teams. As if a 5-game skid isn't enough motivation, the Falcons will also draw from a 3-game losing streak to San Diego State. Last year's 28-9 beating at SDSU assures us Air Force will be very hungry. Four turnovers killed the Falcons in last season's meeting as they outgained the Aztecs 393-268 with 320 of those yards coming on the ground. SDSU has struggled this season against good running teams. It lost at home to an Eastern Illinois squad that racked up 172 rushing yards. It was also smoked by Ohio State (263 rushing yards) and was fortunate to beat a Nevada team that gained 177 yards on the ground last week. The Aztecs needed OT to outlast Nevada, which outgained them and had seven more minutes of possession time. That was a home game for SDSU. Air Force played Nevada to a three-point game on the road Sept. 28 and really should have won leading by 12 in the fourth quarter. What happened against this common opponent and the margin by which Air Force outgained the Aztecs in last season's matchup shows these teams are more evenly matched than what this line is saying. I don't see SDSU having an answer for Air Force's running game, and that will be the difference. Lastly, the Aztecs are 1-8 ATS all-time after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game under coach Rocky Long. They have lost by an average score of 26.0 to 23.8 in this spot. Take the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Giants +9
The Key: The Bears are getting too much respect from odds makers here. They have lost their last two games by eight points and have only one win by more than three points this season. The Giants aren't as bad as their record looks. They won nine games last season. They have been hurt by turnovers. The Bears are one of the best in the business at forcing turnovers, but I expect a conservative game plan from New York knowing that. Plus, Chicago has forced at least three turnovers in four of its games and has come away with only one win of more than three points. Eli Manning is a much better player than he's showed thus far, and it's only a matter of time before he settles in. Any NFL team would take him over Jay Cutler. You want to fade teams like Chicago that are coming off one or more consecutive losses against the spread that have a winning percentage of 51-60% and are matched up against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse. Doing so has produced a 67-33 ATS record since 1983. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus NFC foes. It is also worth noting that the road team has dominated this series. The road team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings with the Giants going 4-0 SU and ATS in Chicago during this span. Take the points.

6* ALDS *CA$H COW* on Tigers -106
The Key: I like the experience of Verlander in this winner-take-all Game 5. The big right-hander is on top of his game. He hasn't allowed a single run in his last three starts - all on the road - while striking out 33 and walking just five in 19 innings. Plus, he's had a ton of success against the A's. The Tigers are 6-2 in his last eight starts against them, and he's held them to one run or none in seven of these starts. The Tigers are 4-1 in his last five starts in Oakland, and he's given up just two runs in 37 innings in these starts. Verlander is riding a 22-inning postseason scoreless streak against the A's. Gray matched Verlander pitch-for-pitch in Game 2, but now the stakes are raised. Verlander has been there and done that on this stage and won't feel as much pressure as the rookie. Oakland is 1-11 in its last 12 tries when trying to close out a playoff series. It is also 0-5 in its last five Game 5s in the ALDS. The Tigers, on the hand, are 4-0 in their last four Game 5s. Take Detroit.

7* NLDS *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -149
The Key: I love the experience of Adam Wainwright in this big spot. The Cardinals are 6-0 in his last six starts, twice beating the Pirates during this stretch with dominant performances. The Cards are 3-0 in Wainwright's home starts against Pittsburgh this season, and he's given up only one run on five hits in 14 innings while striking out 17 and walking two over his last two. Gerrit Cole has pitched well down the stretch and beat the Cardinals in Game 2, but that was his first start against them. Now he's fresh in their minds, and I expect things to go differently as he faces a lineup that is batting .274 and scoring 5.1 runs per game off right-handed starters a second time. The Cards are 24-9 in home games this season versus NL starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or better. St. Louis is also 33-12 in home games in the second half of this season and 51-22 in home games the last three seasons after having lost two of their last three games. Besides Game 1, the St. Louis bats haven't made much noise. However, the numbers suggest a breakout offensive performance is coming. The Cardinals are 14-1 in home games the last two seasons following a five-game stretch with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse. They have won by an average score of 6.6 to 2.6 in this situation. Take St. Louis.

7* ALDS Game of the Year on Tigers -145
The Key: Oakland has an opportunity to close out the Tigers, but I don't like its chances. The A's are 1-10 in their last 11 playoff games with an opportunity to close out a series. Fister got lit up the last time he faced the A's, but he'll learn from that start and will be even more focused as a result. Prior to that start, he had held the A's to two earned runs or less in 11 of 12 starts, including five straight. He shut Oakland down in last year's ALDS and owns a 1.71 ERA over five career postseason starts. The Tigers are 10-4 in Fister's last 14 starts and 25-10 in his last 35 home starts. Oakland's Straily has struggled on the road where he has a 4.11 ERA. Take the Tigers.

6* MNF "Total" Annihilator on Jets/Falcons Under 44.5
The Key: You want to play the under on home teams in games when the total is between 42.5 and 49.0 points if they have a +/- 3.0 points per game differential and are up against a team with a -3 to -7 points per game differential. Doing so has produced a 70-31 unders run since 1983. We have seen an average total line of 44.6 points in this situation but just 41.5 total points scored on average. It is also worth noting that this system is 13-0 the last three seasons. In addition, the Falcons went 6-0 under in home games after the first month of the season last season, holding opponents to just 14.5 points during this stretch. Last year, Atlanta really settled in defensively once October hit, and I expect more of the same this year. The Jets have been outstanding defensively this season, ranking 2nd in the NFL with 283 yards allowed per game. Even though the offense did the defense no favors with four turnovers in last week's 38-13 loss to Tennessee, this stellar defense is not at all happy about the 38 points that were on the scoreboard. I expect a very strong performance from the New York defense tonight. Take the under.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -108
The Key: The Cardinals have had Morton's number. The Pirates are 0-7 in Morton's last 7 starts versus the Cardinals, a stretch where he has a 6.82 ERA. Morton has also struggled in day games where he has a 4.81 ERA compared to his 2.62 mark at night. Beltran is 6 for 15 off Morton, Jon Jay is 8 for 16, Yadier Molina is 8 for 19 and Matt Holliday is 8 for 25. Sounds like runs to me. It's also worth noting that Pittsburgh is 0-5 in Morton's last five home starts versus a team with a winning record. Wacha was brilliant his last time out, nearly tossing a no-no against Washington. He also shut the Pirates down in his lone start against them last month, holding them scoreless on two hits in seven innings of a 9-2 victory. Take St. Louis.

6* NFL Sunday Night Bailout on Raiders +5
The Key: The Chargers are getting too much respect on the road against an Oakland team that took a very good Colts team down to the wire and played Denver tougher than anyone else this season. The Chargers check in off a strong performance against Dallas but are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a victory. The Raiders will be very motivated here. Not only have they lost their last two, but they were swept by the San Diego in last year's series. One of those losses came by only three points, and the Raiders have won or lost by three points in four of the last six meetings. The Chargers are just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -143
The Key: The Braves have been inconsistent on the road where they have a losing record. They are also at a disadvantage on the mound as Teheran's road ERA (3.37) is over a run higher that Ryu's home ERA (2.32). The Braves are 2-7 in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning record, 1-10 in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in their last 4 games overall as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff games, 10-3 in their last 13 home games versus a team with a winning record and 10-4 in Ryu's last 14 home starts. Take LA.

7* AFC Game of the Year on Bengals pk
The Key: Motivated by last week's ugly loss in Cleveland, this incredibly talented Bengals teams will bounce back strong at home where it is 2-0 SU and ATS on the season. The Patriots are 4-0, but I'm not sold. They were fortunate to win their first two against the Bills and Jets and were outgained in last week's win against the Falcons. Despite playing a very soft schedule to this point, New England enters the week ranked just 16th in total defense and 20th in scoring offense. Cincy enters the week ranked 13th in total defense. Its offense is yet to get untracked, but I love it to do so here. New England showed just how vulnerable it is in the back when it gave up 399 passing yards last week. Plus, it will miss defensive tackle Vince Wilfork immensely. The Bengals are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, you want to fade road underdogs or pickems that scored 30 points or more in their last game when they are matched up against a team that was held to three points or less in the first half of its last game. Doing so has produced a 41-15 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 18-6 ATS the last five seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Last week's loss at Cleveland will serve as the wake-up call Cincy needed. Bet the Bengals.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Bears +1
The Key: New Orleans looked good Monday night, but it is at a disadvantage here with one less day to prepare. Plus, it has not been the same team on the road. The Saints were fortunate to win at Tampa Bay in Week 2. They did not cover the spread in that game and squeaked by with a two-point victory against a team that's now 0-4. The Saints were on a 3-6 slide on the road prior to that game, and one of those wins came in OT against Dallas so they easily could have been on a 2-7 skid. Home field has been a big deal in this series. The home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings with the wins coming by 13.3 points on average. Three of these wins were by the Bears. In terms of the line, the home team is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in the series. Take Chicago.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rays -113
The Key: I expect the Rays to bounce back strong behind David Price, who has thrived at Fenway. Price is 10-6 with a 2.93 ERA in 20 career starts against the Red Sox, including a 6-1 mark with a 1.88 ERA in 10 games in Boston. The Rays are 7-3 in Price's last 10 road starts versus Red Sox. They are also 5-0 in his last 5 starts in Game 2 of a series and 21-6 in his last 27 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. John Lackey has posted a 5.33 ERA over his last four starts and is 3-5 with a 6.70 ERA in nine starts versus the Rays since joining the Red Sox in 2010. The Red Sox have been a terrible underdog investment. They are 27-57 in their last 84 games as an underdog, 9-25 in their last 34 games as a home underdog and 1-5 in Lackey's last 6 starts as an underdog. Take Tampa Bay.

7* ACC Game of the Year on Wake Forest +8.5
The Key: Wake Forest just got smoked by a Clemson team that NC State played to a 12-point game, but I'm not ready to drink the Wolfpack Kool-Aid. It should be noted that the Wolfpack got Clemson at home while the Demon Deacons played the Tigers on the road, and that had a lot to do with the differing margins of losses. NC State clubbed Wake 37-6 last season, but that game was at NC State. Things have gone much differently when the Wolfpack travel to Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have won five straight at home against the Wolfpack by an average of 11 points. They have also won seven of their last eight at home in the series with the lone loss during this span coming by only three points. The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS in these games. The Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall, and the home team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Wolfpack are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 9-27 ATS in their last 36 as a road favorite. The Demon Deacons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Take the points.

6* C-USA Game of the Week on Middle Tennessee State +7.5
The Key: Oddsmakers are begging for the money to roll in on East Carolina after they won 55-31 at North Carolina last week, but we won't bite. MTSU was crushed at BYU last week and suffered a 20-point loss at North Carolina back in Week 2. These two defeats are giving us added line value. The Blue Raiders, who are 2-0 at home, will be extremely motivated by last week's loss. East Carolina, on the other hand, finds itself in a letdown situation following its big upset win. Both of these teams have wins over Florida Atlantic this season, and it can be argued that MTSU was actually the more impressive team against the Owls despite winning by a lesser margin. It racked up 446 yards of offense and forced five turnovers on the road while the Pirates only managed 312 yards in their home win. The Pirates have been a dead fade of late following victory. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. The Pirates are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Blue Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Take the points.

6* AAC Game of the Week on SMU +5
The Key: SMU is just 1-3 but has played a brutal schedule to this point with games against Texas Tech, Texas A&M and TCU. It was not as overmatched in those games as the scores lead you to believe as it is only getting outgained by an average of 20.0 yards on the season. Turnovers kept the Mustangs from being more competitive. They will no doubt place an emphasis on ball security this week and are fortunate to be going up against a Rutgers squad that has forced only one turnover in its last two games. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a bye but are still riding high following a comeback win over Arkansas. Plus, they visit Louisville Thursday and will be unable to keep from looking ahead to that game. Off back-to-back blowout losses on the road, I fully expect SMU to show up in a big way at home here. The Mustangs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Scarlet Knights are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team with a losing record. Additionally, you want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or less rushing yards per game if they were held to 75 or less rushing yards in their last game. This situation is 6-1 ATS the last three seasons and 51-19 ATS since 1992. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State -5
The Key: This is a game Utah State wants badly. The Aggies ended a 10-game losing streak in the series with a 31-16 win in 2010. However, they have suffered three-point losses to BYU each of the past two seasons and will be very hungry here as a result. Utah State enters off a 40-12 victory at San Jose State, and recent history says that win will fuel its confidence. In fact, the Aggies are 9-0 ATS since the beginning of last season after a win by 21 or more points. They have won by an average score of 36.7 to 15.1 in these spots. Utah State is also 6-0 ATS following a blowout win of 21 points or more over a conference rival since the start of last season and 7-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game since the start of last year. The Aggies have also thrived under the Friday night lights at 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. The Cougars enter off a blowout win over Middle Tennessee State but are 0-6 ATS off a home win going back to last season. The Cougars are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Utah State. Lay the points.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Braves -102
The Key: The Braves dropped Game 1, but I like their chances of evening the series. Atlanta is 5-0 in its last 5 games following a loss. In addition, it is 20-4 this season in home games following a defeat. The Braves are 66-28 in their last 94 home games overall so this team clearly doesn't lose many consecutive home contests. The Dodgers have had some problems with left-handed starters. They are averaging only 3.6 runs per game off them and are 3-9 in their last 12 games against them. Their struggles figure to continue against Minor. The Braves were 2-0 in his starts against the Dodgers this season. He posted a 2.25 ERA in those starts, limited the Dodgers to a .205 average and had 15 strikeouts over 12 innings. The Braves are 8-0 in Minor's last 8 starts versus National League West foes and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record. Greinke's clubs are 0-2 in his two career starts in Atlanta. He gave up 9 runs in 11 innings in those contests. Take Atlanta.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Utah +6.5
The Key: UCLA is getting too much respect on the road. It has a pair of blowout wins at home against a couple patsies. It did beat Nebraska on the road (I'm not sold on the Huskers) but trailed 21-3 in that game. Utah has played a much more difficult schedule with in-state rivalry wins over Utah State and BYU and an overtime loss to Oregon State. Those three high-intensity games will benefit the Utes tonight. UCLA won last season's meeting 21-14 at home, but it hasn't fared as well on the road in the series. It has lost its last two trips to Utah by 25 and 38 points. Both teams are coming off a bye, but Utah has been the far better investment in such spots. UCLA is on a 5-17 ATS slide in road games after a bye week while Utah is on a 28-14 ATS run after a bye. Zooming in, the Bruins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week while the Utes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week. Utah has been an awesome underdog investment over the years. It is 51-28 ATS as an underdog since 1992, including 30-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points during this time frame. Take the points.

6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Browns -3.5
The Key: Winning on the road on a short week is too much to ask of the battered Bills. Buffalo is 0-5 in its last five road games with each of these losses coming by at least six points. The Bills upset Baltimore at home Sunday, but they are 1-9 ATS on the road after a game at home since the start of the 2011 season. They have lost by an average score of 32.5 to 15.3 in these 10 instances. The Browns enter with some nice momentum following back-to-back victories, and they aren't satisfied. They now believe that they can contend in the AFC North. The Browns have a sizable advantage on the defensive side of the football. They rank 3rd in total defense while the Bills rank 27th. It is also bodes well for Cleveland that Buffalo is wounded. Both Buffalo backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are dealing with injuries as well as receiver Stevie Johnson. In the secondary, starters Jairus Byrd and Leodis McKelvin are dealing with injuries. Lay the points.

6* NLDS *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -143
The Key: The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four games versus Pittsburgh. They are also 4-0 in their last four home games versus the Pirates. They have way more postseason experience and a better starter going in Wainwright. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wainwright's last five starts and 4-0 in his last four starts as a home favorite. The Cards are 2-0 in his home starts against the Pirates this season while Pittsburgh is 0-2 in Burnett's starts in St. Louis this season. Burnett was rocked in those two, giving up 10 earned runs in 7 1-3 innings. The Cards are 6-0 in their last six games overall, 6-0 in their last six games versus a team with a winning record, 6-0 in their last six home games versus a team with a winning road record and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take St. Louis.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Indians +103
The Key: The Indians are showing value in the underdog role at home where they are 49-24 in their last 73 games. They are 10-0 in their last 10 games overall, 9-0 in their last nine games when their opponent allows two runs or less in its previous game, 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent scores five runs or more in its previous game and 4-0 in their last four games versus a right-handed starter. The Indians have seen Cobb once this season and twice last season so they have some familiarity with his stuff. The Rays, on the other hand, have never seen Salazar. That will be to his advantage. Cobb typically hasn't been as sharp when breaking his four-day between starts routine. In fact, the Rays are 0-4 in his last four starts on five days' rest. The Rays are also 0-7 in their last seven playoff games as a favorite and 0-6 in their last six playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Cleveland is 22-8 in its last 30 home games versus the Rays. Take the Tribe.

7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -126
The Key: Pittsburgh has all the momentum on its side following a three-game sweep of the Reds. Cincy is 0-5 in its last five games with those losses coming at home, and now it ventures out on the road where it has been far less consistent. The Cincy offense is really struggling. It has been held to three runs or fewer in six straight games. The Pirates have scored four runs or more in seven of their last 10 games. I can't see the Reds getting much of anything of Liriano, who's 8-1 with a 1.47 ERA in 11 home starts. The Pirates are 7-1 in his last 8 home starts. Cueto has fared well in a pair of starts since returning from the DL, but those came against the lowly Mets and Astros. He has a 3.90 ERA on the road this season. We'll take the hotter team at home tonight.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Saints -7
The Key: I'm not sold on the Dolphins. They are fortunate to be 3-0 considering they have been outgained in each of their games and rank just 18th in total defense and 27th in total offense. Ryan Tannehill has made strides as the Dolphins rank 14th in passing offense with 249.0 ypg. However, he's up against a New Orleans defense that ranks second against the pass at 184.3 ypg allowed. The Saints are 9-0 ATS in home games since the start of the 2011 season versus teams that average 235 or more passing yards per game. They have won these contests by an average score of 38.0 to 17.6. While the Saints are a pass-first team, they know the importance of running the football to keep the defense off balance. They ran it effectively last week, and I expect them to have success on the ground versus a Miami defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in home games since the beginning of the 2011 season versus teams that allow 4.5 yards or more per carry. They have won these games by an average score of 38.0 to 21.5. Drew Brees has won eight consecutive Monday Night Football contests while throwing for 24 TDs against 5 INTs, and the Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday nighters. He should have a comfortable night in the pocket with Miami DE Cameron Wake expected to miss with a knee injury. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since the start of the 2011 season. Lay the points.

6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rays -116
The Key: Price doesn't have the best track record against Texas. Still, he has held the Rangers to three runs or less in five of his last six starts against them, and I like his experience in this spot. I think nerves will come into play a lot more for Texas rookie Martin Perez. The Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record while the Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record. The Rays are also 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Rays are 33-14 in Price's last 47 starts as a road favorite and 20-6 in his last 26 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Rangers are 1-6 in Perez's last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record. Take Tampa Bay.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Falcons -129
The Key: I expect the Falcons to cover the spread, but I'm taking them on the money line at an affordable price to take away any possibility of a push or backdoor loss. New England is 3-0 but hasn't been very impressive. It could easily be 1-2. Now, it travels to one of the toughest venues in the NFL, and I don't expect it to make it out alive. The Falcons are a ridiculous 34-7 at home in the regular season the last 5+ seasons. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS under coach Smith in September home games. It is 12-4 ATS under Smith in home games in the first half of the season. It is also 19-5 ATS under Smith following 1 or more consecutive losses. Take the Falcons.