7* Elite 8 *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan +2
The Key: Michigan was extremely fortunate to beat Kansas as it played rather underwhelming basketball for the first 37 minutes of the game. I believe that game will be a lesson to the Wolverines and they'll come out much harder, especially on the defensive side of the ball, in this one. While Florida is the better defensive team, we just saw the Gators give up 45.5% shooting to Florida Gulf Coast. If the Eagles don't shoot only 54.5% from the foul line and turn it over 20 times, it's much closer than a 12-point game. Brett Comer wasn't able to handle the Florida pressure, but I'm confident Trey Burke will have no problem. He looks like the best player in the country right now and will enter this game extremely confident after putting the Wolverines on his back down the stretch against Kansas. I just don't see the Gators having an answer for him. If they double him to make him give it up, Glenn Robinson and Tim Hardaway can hurt the Gators as well. Florida will also have trouble defending Mitch McGary, who is having a coming out party in this tournament. The Wolverines have been terrific in tournament formats this season, going 8-1 ATS in all tournament games. The Wolverines are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games under Beilein, whose teams are 14-3 ATS in the NCAA tournament since 1997. I'll take the points with the more talented team as I expect Michigan to show up after getting a scare.

6* NBA Bailout on Suns +10.5
The Key: The Suns are playing a lot of young guys as they are already starting to think about next season. Still, they aren't getting the respect they deserve at home tonight versus a road-weary Pacers club that will be playing its third road game in 4 days. You want to fade favorites of 10 or more points that gave up 80 points or less in their last game if they are matchup up against a team that allowed 110 points or more in their last game. Doing so has produced a 49-18 ATS mark since 1996. This system is 9-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. You also want to take underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games even if they are playing a third game in 4 days. That's because these teams are 58-30 ATS since 1996. Also, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

6* Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Rockets pk
The Key: This is LA's 4th game in 5 days so fatigue will definitely be an issue. Plus, I expect motivation to be an issue as well as it is coming off a heartbreaking loss in San Antonio last night. It will be tough to bounce back from that one. The Rockets will be very motivated as they've yet to clinch a playoff spot. They've also lost the season's first two meetings with the Clippers so the revenge angle is live here. The Clippers are a soft 2-11 ATS under coach Del Negro when coming off a cover in a game they lost straight up. They have lost by an average score of 99.6 to 92.1 in this situation. The Rockets are 17-5 ATS under coach McHale in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. They have won by an average score of 106.9 to 97.4 in these spots. Take the Rockets.

6* Elite 8 *CA$H COW* on Marquette +4.5
The Key: Marquette knows how to beat Syracuse. The Golden Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 matchups, including a 74-71 win during the regular season. They were a 1.5-point dog in that game and are catching 3 more points in this matchup despite winning it? Syracuse is clearly being overvalued because of its performance against Indiana. While I give the Orange credit for how they played defensively, Indiana did a terrible job of attacking the zone. It takes ball movement, man movement and dribble penetration of the gaps to beat a zone. Indiana lacked in all three areas. Marquette won't. The Golden Eagles know the secret to beating Syracuse is getting to the foul line. In each of their last three wins in the series, they have made more free throws than the Orange have attempted. They also won the rebounding battle in the three wins. Because of their focus on taking the ball aggressively to the basket and keeping Syracuse off the boards, the Golden Eagles are 5-0 ATS against the Orange the last four 4 seasons. Marquette hasn't just been successful against Syracuse. It's strategy of getting to the foul line has worked against a number of quality defensive teams. In fact, the Eagles are 22-12 ATS all-time under Buzz Williams versus good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 39% shooting or worse. They have won by an average score of 71.5 to 69.4 in this situation. I also like the fact that Marquette is 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons 15 or more games in versus high-caliber opponents that outscore the opposition by 12 points or more per game. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 70.5 to 69.6. Lastly, the Eagles are a rock solid 19-8 ATS when catching points the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavs -4
The Key: *reduced writeup due to late line release and early start time* Bulls are in for a letdown on the road following a huge win over the Heat. Dallas, which is vying for a playoff spot, is in major bounce-back mode after getting embarrassed by Indiana. The Mavs were also kicked by the Bulls earlier this season so they will be lacking no motivation. Plays on any team that is out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more on the road to an opponent, provided it checks in off an upset loss of 15 points or more, are 37-12 ATS since 1996. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Trail Blazers -3
The Key: Utah has won its last two but is still just 5-12 in its last 17. I expect Utah's struggles to continue tonight in Portland where the Blazers are 22-12 on the season. The Jazz are just 10-27 on the road, including 0-9 in their last 9 road contests. They have lost by an average of 8.4 points during this losing streak. Portland should be lacking no motivated here following back-to-back double-digit defeats. The last one came at home to Brooklyn and that's significant because the Trail Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Jazz are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Trail Blazers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Nuggets -6.5
The Key: Denver saw its 15-game losing streak come to an end Monday and then lost a tough one in San Antonio Wednesday. Both of those were on the road. The Nuggets are a much better team at home and should be hungry to get back in the win column tonight. They'll be further fueled by a loss at Brooklyn in the season's first meeting. This is the Nets 6th straight on the road so I expect them to be feeling pretty road-weary by now. The Nuggets are 17-0 in their last 17 at home and have won these by an average of 11.9 points. They are also 5-0 in their last 5 at home versus the Nets and have won these by an average of 13.2 points. These two trends form a 22-0 angle that carries an average winning margin of 12.6 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Memphis -4.5
The Key: After back-to-back poor performances on the road, I fully expect Memphis to bounce-back strong at home tonight. The Grizzlies will draw added motivated from an embarrassing 121-96 loss at Houston the last time these two met. The Grizzlies are 10-0 in their last 10 at home and have won these by an average of 7.9 points. The Rockets have struggled on the road all season and haven't played away from home since Mar. 9 so this is a tough spot for them. The Grizz are 4-0 in their last 4 at home versus Houston, winning these by an average of 10.8 points. It is also worth noting that the home team is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.1 points. These 3 trends form a 23-0 angle that carries a 9.9-pt avg. margin of victory. Memphis is 32-17 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Also, the Grizzlies are 15-4 ATS all-time under coach Hollins when out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent. Lay the number.

7* Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan +2
The Key: Kansas is a very good defensive team, but it is susceptible to long scoring droughts on offense. After managing just 64 points against Western Kentucky in the round of 64, the Jayhawks came up with 70 against North Carolina. But keep in mind that they were held to only 43.6 percent shooting by an often poor defensive team, and that they only had 21 points at the half. They were able to explode for 49 points in the second half, but they won't be able to afford any lengthy scoring droughts against a Michigan squad that has no trouble scoring the rock. Ben McLemore is Kansas' most talented offensive player, but he's been mired in a slump. He only had two points against the Tar Heels. Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III are all capable of going off for Michigan, and now Mitch McGary has joined the party. He's scored 13 and 21 points, respectively, in Michigan's first two wins. I just don't see Kansas being able to get enough stops or generating enough offense to pull this one. Offense has been an issue for Kansas at different times throughout the Bill Self era. It was a lack of offense that got them beat by Northern Iowa in 2010 and VCU in 2011. The Wolverines are a perfect 5-0 ATS versus Big 12 opponents the last 4 seasons. They have covered the spread twice against Kansas during this stretch as an underdog which I believe is a testament to how good of a coach John Beilein is. The Wolverines were a 10-point dog the last time these teams met in January, 2011 and they took the Jayhawks to OT. They had no business playing with that Kansas team, but Beilein had them ready. Now, he has the more talented squad. It is also worth noting that Kansas is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 versus the Big Ten. The Wolverines have been terrific in tournament formats this season. In fact, they are 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. Also, Beilein's teams are 13-3 ATS in all NCAA tournament games since 1997. Take Michigan.

6* Sweet 16 *CA$H COW* on Oregon +10
The Key: The Pac-12 entered the tournament incredibly undervalued, and that remains the case here. We saw Cal upset UNLV in a 12-5 matchup, and we have also seen Arizona make a nice run as a 6-seed. Oregon is clearly not your average 12-seed. The Ducks won the Pac-12 Conference Tournament and probably should have won the regular-season title as well. They are playing confident basketball right now and have made quality opponents Oklahoma State and Saint Louis look like chumps. I believe the Ducks have what it takes to give the Cardinals a game. You want to fade double-digit favorites that check in with a winning streak of 10 games or more as doing so has produced a 173-107 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to 70-32 ATS if the team we are fading is matched up against a team that has won at least 2 consecutive games. Oddsmakers have not not set a very high total for this game, which is what I like to see when catching a big number. The total is significant because teams headed up by Dana Altman are 7-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 129.5 or less since 1997. I also like the fact that Oregon is 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court contests 15 or more games into the schedule the last 2 seasons versus good shooting teams that making 45% or more of their shots. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Suns +1.5
The Key: This is a big letdown spot for Sacramento, which won at Golden State last night. Keep in mind that the Kings hadn't defeated an opponent with a winning record away from Sacramento all season before last night. Even with the win, they are only 7-30 on the road. The Suns will be in bounce-back mode after losing in Utah last night. They will also be out for revenge for a loss at Sacramento earlier this month. They had won 5 straight in the series before that defeat. The Kings have had virtually no success in Phoenix where they have lost 12 of their last 13. The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. The Kings are also 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings and 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns.

7* Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana -5
The Key: Syracuse needs to play this game in the half court to have a chance. Judging by the total (136.0), oddsmakers don't expect that to happen. The total is significant because Syracuse is 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons in neutral court contests when the total is 135 to 139.5. Indiana has a big edge at the foul line as it connects on 19 of 25 free throw attempts per game on average and Syracuse connects on only 14 of 21. This is also significant because the Orange are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons at or after the 15-game point of the schedule versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 25 free throws or more per game. The fact Indiana cleans up the boards doesn't bode well for Syracuse either. The Orange are 0-8 ATS the last 2 seasons versus dominant rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 7.0 or more per game. Syracuse has struggled offensively down the stretch. In fact, it's been under 41.0 percent shooting in six of its last nine games. That's not a good sign as it's about to face one of the best defensive teams in the country. Lastly, fading Syracuse in the Sweet 16 has never lost under Jim Boeheim. The Orange are 0-6 ATS in the Sweet 16 under his watch, losing these by an average of 7.7 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Lakers -4.5
The Key: Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats that have reduced their lead to a single game for the final playoff spot in the West, the Lakers will bounce-back strong against a team they have defeated 21 straight times. You want to fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking for revenge for a loss of 20 points or more to an opponent, provided that opponent checks in off a road game where both it and its foe scored 100 points or more. Doing so has produced a 25-5 ATS mark the last 5 seasons, and a perfect 2-0 ATS result this season. The Timberwolves rolled in Detroit last night. That bodes well for us as they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a in of more than 10 points. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota, winning these by an average of 9.3 points. The Lakers have been hurt by the 3-point during their 3-game slide, but Minnesota shoots an NBA-low 30.0 percent on 3s. The T-Wolves made a season-high 14 on 26 attempts last night, which means they used them all up. If anything, the good shooting night will make them fall more in love with the long range jump shot tonight, and that plays in our favor. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies +1
The Key: Motivated by Monday's disappointing performance at Washington, the Grizzlies will bounce-back strong tonight. We're talking about a team that is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. Plus, Memphis hasn't lost too many against the East on the road. It's 10-4 on the road against the East this season. The Grizzlies are 19-9 ATS in all games against the East this season. They are also 14-4 ATS all-time under coach Hollins in road games against Atlantic division foes. Memphis has also been a tremendous investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. It is 14-6 ATS this season in games when the line is +3 to -3. The Knicks have won 5 in a row but only last night's win against the banged-up Celtics was against a playoff team. The Grizzlies have had a day off to gear up for this one, and I fully expect them to respond.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavericks +1.5
The Key: The Mavs will be the more motivated team tonight. They have played their way back into the playoff picture, trailing the Lakers for the No. 8 spot in the West by only two games in the win column. Plus, they have lost the season's first two meetings with the Clippers so they'll be out for revenge. Both of those defeats came in L.A. I expect a different result in Dallas where the Mavs have won 10 of the last 11 in the series. The Mavs have been an outstanding investment in revenge spots this season. They are 17-8 ATS when out for revenge for a same-season loss this season. They are also an impressive 18-6 ATS in their last 24 versus the Western Conference. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus the West. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Take Dallas.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Bradley +11
The Key: Bradley lost both meetings during the regular season and was crushed 84-53 in the one at Northern Iowa. However, I like its chances of giving the Panthers a game. Northern Iowa shot the lights out from 3-point range in both wins against the Braves. It was 15 of 26 from beyond the arc in the home win. The Panthers average 8 3-point makes per game so they got an extra 21 points on 3's. If they make their average, they only win 63-53, theoretically. Bottom line, after getting blitzed from long range twice against N. Iowa, I expect Bradley to do a much better job against the 3 tonight. It is also worth noting that N. Iowa hasn't blown out too many opponents at home lately. In fact, it has won by 11 points or fewer in 6 of its last 7 home games with the exception being a 12-point victory. The Panthers are on an 18-34 ATS slide as a home favorite of 10 or more points. Plus, they are only 1-8 ATS at or after the 15-game point of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams that carry a winning percentage of 51% to 60%. They have actually lost to these teams by an average score of 61.4 to 59.2. Lastly, the underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the points.

7* NIT Game of the Week on Southern Miss -8
The Key: Louisiana Tech took care of an inexperienced Florida State squad in its first round contest, but it will have trouble duplicating that performance at Southern Miss where the Golden Eagles are 13-1 on the season. The Golden Eagles missed a golden opportunity to make the NCAA tournament when they lost to Memphis in double-OT in the C-USA tournament title game. They were still feeling the effects of that disappointing loss when they let Charleston Southern hang around in their NIT opener. While they had trouble finding motivation for that game, they should have no such trouble tonight as they lost at Louisiana Tech 65-55 earlier this season. Home court has been huge in this series as the home team is 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings, winning those by an average of 11.7 points. It's also worth noting that the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, winning those by an average of 13.2 points. There is also a strong revenge trend in our favor as teams headed up by coach Donnie Tyndall are 23-8 ATS when looking for revenge against a team that held them to less than 60 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Wizards +3
The Key: The Wizards are showing value at home in the underdog role tonight. Washington has won each of its last 5 and 15 of its last 19 at home with notable wins over the Thunder, Bulls, Clippers, Knicks, Nuggets and Rockets during this stretch. Memphis has been pretty good on the road this season but has dropped its last 3 away from home. Besides, the Wizards are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games versus teams that have a winning road record. Washington is also a reliable 34-18 ATS as an underdog this season, including 16-7 ATS as a home underdog. Take the points.

6* NIT *CA$H COW* on Providence -8.5
The Key: Robert Morris shocked Kentucky in the first round, but that game was at home and the Wildcats were disinterested after missing out on the Big Dance. Providence, which defeated Charlotte by 9 in its opening game, is very much interested in making a deep run. The Friars weren't expected to do much of anything this season, and they went 9-9 in the mighty Big East. That's the same conference record Cincinnati, an NCAA tournament team, had. Most of Providence's success came at home where it is 13-4. Recently, the Friars are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 home games with notable wins over Cincinnati and Notre Dame during this stretch. The Friars have won 8 of their last 11 overall with a win at Villanova during this span. I mention that win because the Wildcats defeated all the elite teams in the Big East on their home floor. These two played one like opponent this season, Bryant. Robert Morris split two meetings with Bryant, winning one by two and losing the other by seven. Providence kicked Bryant 81-49. In addition, you want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing on 5 or 6 days' rest if they are a good team (60% to 80%) and playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 134-88 ATS result the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

6* Sunday NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Illinois +8
The Key: Miami rolled past Pacific in its opener behind a 12 of 22 performance from 3-point range. That performance was clearly out of the ordinary as it averages just 7 3-point makes per game. If you subtract the 15 points scored from beyond the arc that Miami normally doesn't get, the Hurricanes only beat the Tigers by 14. That's what the spread closed as. With this in mind, I believe Miami is being overvalued here because of its wide margin of victory that came from an atypical long-range shooting display. Miami can try to make it rain again, but Illinois has the athletes to make sure the Hurricanes don't go off from deep. The books clearly feel Illinois will have success defending Miami as they have set a total of 128. Given the spread, this means they are expecting a game in the 60's, which greatly favors the Illini. Miami is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when it scores fewer than 70 points. Keep in mind that teams headed up by John Groce are 7-0 ATS all-time in neutral court contests when the total is 120 to 129.5. His teams have won these games by an average score of 63.6 to 53.4. This trend was in play Friday when Illinois defeated Colorado, and it was also live when it defeated Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten tourney. The Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the ACC while the Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus Big Ten. Take the points.

7* Sunday NCAA Tournament ATS Blowout on San Diego State -7
The Key: Florida Gulf Coast is getting tons of attention after pulling off the upset of the tournament. That's fine by me. All the attention has led to a public love affair with this team and the books are looking to take advantage. I won't oblige them by falling for the trap. While the Eagles have wins over Miami and Georgetown, they also have double-digit losses to VCU, Duke, St. John's, Iowa State, East Tennessee State and Lipscomb. With all the attention FGCU is getting, people forget that San Diego State just kicked a very good Oklahoma team 70-55. The Aztecs dominated the Sooners on the boards and will have an advantage there again. Plus, SDSU has a sizable coaching advantage with the proven Steve Fisher over Andy Enfield. FGCU plays free, undisciplined ball, and I expect that to backfire against a SDSU squad that is elite defensively. You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeded 13-16 in the NCAA tournament if they enter a matchup with a winning streak of 4 wins or more. That's because doing so has produced a 41-14 ATS mark since 1997. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.9 points on average and have lost by an average of 9.9 points. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. FGCU sneaked up on Georgetown, but you can bet the Aztecs won't be looking ahead. Lay the points as SDSU wins by double digits.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Rockets +1.5
The Key: The Spurs have won each of the season's first three meetings, which means Houston will be out for some serious revenge. San Antonio hasn't swept the season series since 2005-06, and I don't expect it to get it done here. The Spurs needed OT to defeat the Rockets in the season's prior meeting in Houston and James Harden didn't even play in that game. The Rockets are a better team than they were the last time they saw the Spurs and will certainly benefit from Harden being in the lineup. Houston has been playing very well at home where it has won 10 of its last 12. It is also worth noting that the Rockets had won 3 in a row at home versus the Spurs by 3, 20 and 5 points before suffering the OT loss. Houston is an outstanding 9-1 ATS the L2 seasons as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Take the points.

6* Sunday NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +8
The Key: Minnesota has the size, physicality and athleticism to give Florida problems. I love how dialed in the Golden Gophers have been on the defensive end. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 35.6% shooting or worse. Florida has also been strong defensively this season, but Minnesota has been up for the challenge against such opponents. In fact, the Gophers are 13-5 ATS under Tubby Smith versus excellent defensive teams like Florida that give up 57 ppg or fewer. They have defeated these foes by an average score of 59.4 to 57.2. In addition, you want to back underdogs that have gone under the total by 48 points or more in their last 7 games, provided they are matched up against a non-conference foe from one of the Big 6 conferences. Teams fitting these parameters are 12-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Gators are a soft 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. Take the points.

7* NCAA Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on Gonzaga -6
The Key: Southern woke a sleeping giant. After getting a scare in its opening game, expect Gonzaga to take the floor with more passion and focus in the round of 32. Wichita State rolled past Pittsburgh in its tournament opener, but I get the sense the Shockers are teasing us. They lost 4 senior starters off last year's squad and will be giving up a lot of experience to a Gonzaga squad that brought back 4 starters. This is the round where the Zags went home a year ago so they'll be determined to make sure history doesn't repeat itself. Wichita State beat Pittsburgh despite shooting 38.8% from the field because the Panthers shot only 35.2%. However, Gonzaga hasn't shot below 41.5% all season and averages 50.1% shooting. I expect Wichita State to struggle here against a much better offensive team. The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade the Zags following Thursday's scare - the numbers tell us to do just the opposite. Gonzaga is 8-2 ATS this season off a game it won but didn't cover. It is also 10-2 ATS this season after a game where it failed to cover the spread. In addition, the Shockers are a poor 4-18 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. They sink to just 1-8 ATS in the aforementioned situation under coach Marshall. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Bulls -3.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by losses in each of the season's first three meetings with Indiana, Chicago will be hungry to say the least. Consider that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent, provided that opponent checks in off a win of 20 points or more over a division rival, are 42-15 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 8.6 points. The Bulls were upset in last game by a Portland team that has been terrible on the road much of the season. That loss can't be sitting well. Fortunately for us, nothing gets Chicago's juices flowing like an upset loss at home. The Bulls are 13-4 ATS the last 2 seasons following an upset loss at home. They have won by an average score of 95.5 to 83.9 in this spot. Indiana has been far from dominant on the road. It is just 15-18 away from home on the road. Plus, it is 3-11 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. It has lost by an average score of 98.1 to 90.1 in this spot. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Marquette -1.5
The Key: Marquette got all it wanted and more from Davidson in the round of 32, but it was able to survive and advance. I expect no letdown from Marquette following that emotional win as this is an experienced team that won a pair of NCAA tournament games a year ago. Butler edged the Eagles by 1-point in a November meeting, but it was very fortunate to win that game. In fact, Rotnei Clarke had to sink a desperation 3-pointer at the buzzer to lift the Bulldogs. I expect Marquette to have its revenge. The Eagles were better in every phase of that game but one. They lost the turnover battle 14-7. I believe that can easily be corrected here. Marquette only had 9 turnovers against Davidson, and Butler isn't a team that typically forces many. In fact, 20 of its last 21 foes have had 13 turnovers or fewer. 7 of its last 10 have had 11 or less. The Bulldogs a soft are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Eagles are 21-9 ATS 15 or more games into the season the last 3 seasons versus good defensive teams that allow 64 points per game or less. They have defeated these foes by an average score of 70.1 to 66.4. They are also on a 20-10 ATS run under coach Williams when playing with one or less days' rest. Marquette is type of team - athletic and physical - that gives Butler problems. Lay the points.

6* NCAA Tournament Early Annihilator on Michigan -2.5
The Key: Michigan looked sharp in its opener as I expected. It takes a step up in competition here, but I believe it will be up for the challenge. Playing in their own backyard at The Palace of Auburn Hills, I like the Wolverines to come through. VCU relies on its high-pressure defense to force turnovers. In fact, it forces an average of 20 per game. I don't see the Rams getting nearly as many easy points off a turnovers against a Michigan squad that only gives it away an average of 9 times a game. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. make up arguably the best backcourt in the country. They have the ability to beat VCU's pressure for buckets. Want proof of how dependent VCU is off getting teams to cough it up? The Rams are 0-6 ATS this season versus teams that average 12 turnovers or fewer per game. It is also worth noting that VCU is 0-6 ATS this season in games played away from home following a game where it covered the spread. The Rams love to force an uptempo game but the numbers suggest the Wolverines will be up for the challenge. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Beilein in road/neutral court games versus up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game. Lay the points.

6* Friday NCAA Tournament Bailout on Minnesota -2.5
The Key: Oddsmakers have made the decision to favor #11 seed Minnesota over #6 UCLA. I couldn't agree more with that decision. The Golden Gophers are more experienced and more battle-tested having advanced all the way to the NIT championship game last season while the Bruins were at home. Minnesota struggled down the stretch, but it also played 4 of its final 6 regular-season game on the road in the best conference in college basketball this year. We can't ignore the fact that Minnesota had wins over Memphis, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana. UCLA's resume isn't as strong. Plus, the Bruins will be without Jordan Adams (G), who was second on the team in scoring (15.3 ppg) and was arguably the team's best perimeter defender. Adams had been on a tear before breaking his foot, scoring 17 or more in 6 of his last 8 games. He will be greatly missed. The Bruins are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. They are also a soft 6-15 ATS the last 3 seasons in road/neutral site games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). They have lost these contests by an average of 5.8 points. Take Minnesota.

6* NBA Blowout on Rockets -12.5
The Key: The Cavaliers gave all they had in an attempt to bring Miami's lengthy winning streak to an end. They led by as many as 27 points in the third quarter despite being without leading scorers Anderson Varejao, Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, but it wasn't enough as LeBron James punked Cleveland again. That would have been a season-making win for Cleveland, and I don't see it being over it tonight. The Cavs lost the season's first meeting with Houston at home. With this is mind, consider that plays against any team that is coming off a close home loss of 3 points or less and is looking for revenge for a home loss to an opponent are 70-33 ATS the last 5 seasons. The road has not been kind to Cleveland. It is just 9-25 on the highway this season, has lost 11 of its last 12 road games versus West foes and has dropped 20 of its last 23 in Houston, including 5 straight by an average of 15.4 points. The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Houston. Lay the number.

6* NCAA Tournament Friday Night *CA$H COW* on Iona +14.5
The Key: Ohio State enters the Dance on an 8-0 SU (7-1 ATS) run. This run has really gotten the attention of the betting public and oddsmakers are looking to take advantage by getting them to bite on this hefty number. Right away I like the fact that double-digit underdogs that check in with at least 2 consecutive wins that are matched up against a team that is riding a winning streak of at least 8 games are 95-52 ATS the last 5 seasons. No lead will be safe for Ohio State as Iona is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country. The Gaels rank second in the nation in scoring with 80.7 ppg. The backdoor cover will be in play even if the Buckeyes are able to get out in front because of how well Iona scores the basketball. However, I like Iona to keep this one within the number from start to finish. Offense has been an issue for Ohio State, which has only one player (Deshaun Thomas) who averages double figures in scoring. I expect Iona to do its best to take Thomas away, making the other guys win the game. That strategy will help the Gaels keep this one close. Ohio State is sound defensively, but it doesn't force a lot of turnovers. That bodes well for us as Iona is on a 13-5 ATS run in road/neutral court contests at least 15 games into the schedule versus teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game. Ohio State does a good job of taking care of the rock but Iona is on a 7-1 ATS run at least 15 games into the schedule versus team that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game. The Gaels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and a perfect 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams that have a winning record. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Game of the Year on Pacific +12.5
The Key: Miami has had a great season, winning both the regular season and tournament titles in the ACC. However, it is being overvalued here as a result. Odds makers are well aware of the public love affair with the Hurricanes and are looking to take advantage by increasing the spread. Pacific is experienced. It returns all 5 starters from last season. It has also proven it can compete against quality competition. It defeated St. Mary's by double digits on a neutral floor and also defeated a Xavier team that had a number of quality wins (St. Louis, Butler, Temple, La Salle, Memphis) on a neutral court. While Miami's resume is more impressive, we can't ignore that it was defeated by Florida Gulf Coast, Indiana State and Wake Forest. The Tigers have shown incredible commitment at the defensive end of late. They have held each of their last five opponents under 43% shooting, and they held 4 of those opponents to 62 points or fewer. They've held their last 2 foes to just 53 and 55 points and those games finished under the total as a result. This is significant because Pacific is a perfect 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons when it checks in off 2 or more consecutive unders. It is also 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after a combined score of 125 points or less in 2 straight games. These trends are both correlated with defense, and with the total of this one opening at 124, oddsmakers clearly expect the Tigers to be able to get stops against the Hurricanes. It is also worth noting that fading favorites of 10 or more points - an excellent defensive team (<=63 ppg) against a good defensive team (63-67 ppg), after scoring 85 points or more, has produced a 53-17 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system, which is 15-5 ATS this season, shows the way odds makers like to hike up the line after a team comes off a high-scoring game. I will also mention the way rebound margin affects the line. The Canes have been dominant on the boards lately and that forces an elevated line. Consider that teams headed up by coach Larranaga are 0-7 ATS since 1997 in road/neutral games after 4 straight games of holding their opponents to 31 or less rebounds. Lastly, Pacific is a strong 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points as this experienced Pacific squad gives Miami all it wants.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on 76ers +14
The Key: The Nuggets were upset in Philadelphia clear back on Halloween. However, plays against double-digit home favorites that are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent, provided their opponent checks in off a double-digit road loss, are 37-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 12.2 points but have won by only 9.8 points on average. Philly was embarrassed last night so I fully expect it to put forth a great effort here. Denver has been rolling but this will be its third game in four days and it is coming off back-to-back taxing games against Chicago and Oklahoma City. Plus, Denver is a bit banged up with Wilson Chandler expected to miss with a shoulder injury and Ty Lawson listed as questionable with a heel injury. The Nuggets upset the Thunder Tuesday but are on a 0-10 ATS slide in home games off a double-digit win as an underdog of 6 points or more. They have lost by an average of 7.3 points in this situation. Take the points.

6* Thursday NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on California +3
Bottom Line: The Bears lost an earlier meeting with UNLV as the Runnin' Rebels put an airball back in with 1.2 seconds on the clock. However, the game should have never come down to that as Cal was just 15 of 28 from the foul line. We're talking about a team that has knocked them down at a 72.5% clip this season. I like Cal to have its revenge here. The Bears are playing this one close to home in San Jose. UNLV, on the other hand, will be playing outside Las Vegas for the first time since Mar. 2. Plus, the Bears typically play UNLV tough. In fact, they have won or lost by 2 points or less in 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Runnin' Rebels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games versus such teams. The Rebs are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games and 0-8 ATS this season when checking into a matchup after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 games. It is also worth noting that UNLV is a soft 22-33 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and 2-11 ATS 15 or more games into the schedule when playing away from home against a team with a winning record the last 2 seasons. The Bears have dropped their last 2 since winning 7 in a row but are on a 25-10 ATS run in games played outside Berkeley after 2 or more consecutive losses. Take the points.

6* Thursday NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Michigan -11
The Key: Michigan is arguably the most talented team in the country, which I believe makes it a very dangerous #4 seed. The season did not go as planned for the Wolverines, who fell from a No. 1 national ranking and failed to win the Big Ten Conference and the conference tournament. These shortcomings mean Michigan will be extremely motivated. I don't think the Wolverines will overlook South Dakota State for a second. They remember what it felt like when Ohio sent them home early last year, and they don't want to relive that experience. Michigan also benefits from this one being played in its own backyard at The Palace of Auburn Hills. John Beilein is a heck of a coach and has especially been valuable come tournament time. His teams are 54-35 ATS in all tournament games since 1997, including 20-7 ATS in all post-season tournament games during this span. Furthermore, he has led his squads to a 13-4 ATS record in tournament openers. I have no doubt he'll have the Wolverines prepared after last year's debacle. Lay the points.

6* Thursday NCAA Tournament *CA$H COW* on Davidson +3.5
Bottom Line: Davidson enters the Big Dance with a ton of confidence and momentum on its side as it has won its last 17 games. It has stepped on the floor with New Mexico, Gonzaga and Duke this season and gave Louisville all it wanted in last year's NCAA tournament so it will enter this one believing it can win. It's been best to back the Wildcats when they are running hot as they are 18-9 ATS all-time when playing away from home after 10 or more consecutive wins under coach Bob McKillop. Marquette has won 4 of its last 5 but is 1-8 ATS this season when playing away from home after having won 4 of its last 5 games. This doesn't come as much of a surprise because the Golden Eagles have been extremely susceptible outside Milwaukee. Playing this one in Kentucky does them no favors. Davidson has been a strong investment in the Dance as it is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games. It is also on a 41-21 ATS run 15 or more games into the schedule when playing against teams that carry winning percentages of .600 to .800. The Wildcats are also on a 50-29 ATS run 15 games or more into the schedule versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4.0 points or more per game. Take the points as this experienced Davidson squad has the look of a bracket buster.

7* Thursday NCAA Tournament *HEAVY HITTER* on New Mexico State +9
The Key: Saint Louis enters the tournament way overvalued because of the publicity it has received during its 15-1 SU and ATS run. Keep in mind that all 16 of those games were against conference opponents. The Billikens weren't as strong in the non-conference portion of their schedule where they had a home loss to Santa Clara, a loss at Washington and a close call against North Texas. Consider that teams headed up by coach Jim Crews are on a 14-29 ATS slide in non-conference action. Additionally, fading teams that have covered the number in at least 6 of their last 8 games, provided they have won at least 80% of their games and are playing a team that has won 60% to 80% of theirs, has produced a 79-38 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Saint Louis averages 23 free throw attempts per game, but I don't expect it get that many against a New Mexico State team sends its opponents to the foul line just 17 times per game. They sent their last opponent to the charity stripe just 11 times as they were called for 10 less fouls. This is significant because the Aggies are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when playing away from home after being called for 10 or less fouls than an opponent. It is also significant that New Mexico State has finished under the total in each of its last 3 games. That's because the Aggies are 8-0 ATS all-time under coach Menzies when playing away from home following 2 or more consecutive unders. It is also worth noting that the Aggies are 12-4 ATS under Menzies 15 games or more into the schedule when matched up against very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8 points or more per game. New Mexico State has won 18 of its last 20 with the 2 losses coming by only 4 and 6 points on the road. Plus, the Aggies gave Indiana a pretty good test in last year's NCAA tournament. They'll be ready for Saint Louis. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs -8
The Key: The Spurs have completely owned the Warriors in San Antonio. In fact, they are 28-0 in their last 28 at home in the series and have won these games by an average of 17.0 points. After getting 3 days of much-needed rest and out for revenge for last month's overtime loss at Golden State, I expect the Spurs to continue their home dominance of the Warriors. Golden State checks in off back-to-back impressive road wins, but this will be its third road game in four days. Plus, the Warriors are 0-8 ATS this season in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. It has lost by an average score of 104.4 to 92.4 in this situation. Lay the points.

6* CIT *CA$H COW* on North Dakota +15.5
The Key: North Dakota was kicked by 25 at Northern Iowa earlier this season. That embarrassing loss will provide extra incentive for the Fighting Sioux here. North Dakota is playing much better ball than it was back then, and the presence of Troy Huff is a big reason why. The 6-foot-5 guard, who leads the team with 19.1 points and 7.1 boards didn't play in the first meeting. He'll make a big difference tonight. The Fighting Sioux are 12-6 over their last 18 games and haven't lost consecutive games during this stretch. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. One thing you can count on is head coach Brian Jones having his team prepared in March. In fact they have never lost against the number in the month. Since Jones took over as head man, the Fighting Sioux are a perfect 6-0 ATS in lined March contests and have won these by an average score of 69.4 to 68.1. It is also worth noting that the Northern Iowa Panthers are on a 21-37 ATS slide as a favorite of 10 points or more. Take the points.

6* NIT *CA$H COW* on Mercer +9
The Key: Mercer will be the more motivated side tonight as Tennessee had its sights set on the Big Dance. Coming up short is a major letdown. Plus, these two played three like opponents this season and Mercer was arguably more impressive in those games. It defeated Alabama by 7 on the road while the Vols lost 2 of 3 to the Crimson Tide and dropped the road meeting by 3 points. The Bears lost at Georgia by 9 but Tennessee also lost both of its meetings with Georgia and dropped the road meeting by 10. Lastly, Mercer rolled Kennesaw State 66-42 while Tennessee defeated Kennesaw State by only 9 points. Mercer has been a dangerous dog. In fact, it is 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and has won these games by an average score of 69.4 to 68.4. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +11
The Key: The Magic were blown out by 22 in Indiana last night, but consider that road underdogs of 10 or more points off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, are 66-33 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting this system have lost by just 9.3 points on average. Plus, this system is 21-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that the Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 48-21-2 ATS in their last 71 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Magic haven't lost consecutive games against the spread in a month, which correlates to how undervalued they are and how much they've improved. The Knicks get Carmelo Anthony back tonight, but his return could produce a hiccup as roles now have to change. The Knicks were blasted 92-63 at Golden State the last time Melo came back from injury. Also, we can't ignore the level of motivation that Orlando will have as it tries to avoid the season sweep. The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games while the Knicks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take the points.

6* CBI *CA$H COW* on Bryant +5
The Key: This experienced Bryant squad, which brought back all 5 starters, has the look of a dangerous home dog against a Richmond squad that has dropped 8 of its last 9 true road games and is 3-11 in all games played away from home this season. Bryant, on the other hand, is 11-4 in all home games this season. Its 4 home defeats came by an average of 2.8 points with 3 of those coming by 2 points or less. One of those was a 2 point loss to a Robert Morris team that upset Kentucky last night. Bryant head man Tim Oshea has always made sure his teams take care of business at home. His squads are 56-28 ATS all-time in home lined games, including 15-5 ATS in home games versus non-conference foes. And get this. His teams are 13-1 ATS all-time as a home underdog or pickem and have won these contests by an average score of 74.4 to 68.9. Take the points.

6* NIT *CA$H COW* on Denver -6.5
The Key: Ohio doesn't want to be in the NIT. The Bobcats returned all 5 starters from a team that lost to North Carolina in OT in the Sweet 16 a year ago. The Bobcats had an excellent chance to return to the dance but lost in the MAC tournament championship game to an Akron team that was without one of its best players. Ohio led the Zips by 9 points in the first half of that game but were completely annihilated in the second half. I don't see Ohio being mentally ready to go here just 2 days after a huge letdown. Denver has been flat out dangerous at home where it has won its last 12 by an average of 22.0 points. In addition, the Pioneers are a perfect 12-0 ATS this season when checking into a matchup with momentum - at least 5 wins in their last 7 games. They are also on a 7-0 ATS run versus good ball handling teams that commit 14 turnovers or fewer per game. It is also significant that they enter off an ATS loss as they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS defeat. The Bobcats are only 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -9
The Key: This is a game the Thunder have had circled, and it just so happens that they catch Denver at a great time. The Nuggets just played a tough overtime contests in Chicago last night so they won't be nearly as fresh as a Thunder team that had Monday off. Oklahoma City wants this game badly because it has lost its last two in Denver in heartbreaking fashion. The Thunder lost 121-118 in overtime Jan. 20 and 105-103 Mar. 1 when Ty Lawson nailed a jumper with 0.2 seconds left. Home court will make all the difference in the world for the Thunder tonight. The Thunder are a perfect 20-0 in their last 20 home games against Western Conference foes and have won these games by an average of 17.0 points. This streak includes a 117-97 win over Denver on Jan. 16. Revenge has been a solid angle to play on the Thunder, especially when they're at home. Consider that they are 13-3 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss. They have won by an average of 14.0 points in this situation. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Suns +3.5
The Key: The Lakers have won 2 straight since Kobe Bryant's ankle injury but will be lucky to make it out of Phoenix alive. LA just defeated the Kings Sunday behind big games from veterans Metta World Peace, Steve Nash and Antawn Jamison. These vets will have a tough time bringing it on consecutive nights. Recently, the Lakers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Lakers are also a soft 17-38 ATS in their last 55 games following a win, 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Suns have lost 4 straight and were embarrassed 127-105 at Washington Saturday. That poor defensive effort should be a huge motivator here. Consider that the Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Here's the key 10-1 ATS angle: The home team has had the upper hand in this series winning each of the last 8 meetings by an average of 10.8 points. In terms of the line, the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Also, the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Phoenix and have lost the last 3 straight up by an average of 12.7 points. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Hornets +3.5
The Key: This is a sandwich game for Golden State. The Warriors earned an emotional 30-point win last night against a Houston team that had won the season's first three meetings. The Warriors have another big game with San Antonio Wednesday so it will be easy for them to look right past a New Orleans squad they have defeated twice already this season. The Hornets have lost 3 straight and will be further motivated by the revenge factor so while Golden State looks ahead they'll be very focused on the task at hand. The Hornets have covered the number in 32 of their last 48 when out for revenge for 2 consecutive defeats to a foe. Prior to last night, the Warriors had lost 9 of 10 on the road with the lone win coming by a single point against the T-Wolves. They are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Lastly, the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Bobcats +7.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats in Toronto and Boston, and further fueled by a 104-87 loss at Washington earlier this month, Charlotte will show up tonight. Washington has been much improved since the return of John Wall, but his presence hasn't made much of an impact on the road where the Wizards have lost 3 straight and 8 of 10. Washington's improved play has led to it being overvalued on the road against teams with losing home marks. In fact, it is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games versus teams with a losing record at home. In addition, plays against favorites that carry a winning percentage of .250 to .400 that are playing their 5th game in 7 days and are matched up against a team with a losing record are 60-29 ATS since 1996. These favorites have tied on average in this fatigued situation. Also, underdogs that have failed to cover the number in at least 12 or their last 15 games that are matched up against a team that have covered the spread in 3 of its last 4 games are 52-23 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 8.0 points on average but have lost by only 2.9 points. The Bobcats have defeated Washington twice this season so they'll be lacking no confidence. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Warriors +8
The Key: In case Friday's 113-95 home loss to Chicago isn't motivation enough, losses in each of the season's first three meetings with Houston will be. I believe the Chicago loss will be motivation enough and the three losses to Houston will further fuel the fire. "This was an embarrassing performance by us, point blank,'' said Stephen Curry, who scored just eight points on 2-for-13 shooting against Chicago. Curry is one of the NBA top 3-point shooters at 45%, and I fully expect him to bounce-back strong following a game where he was 0-for-5 from beyond the arc. Golden State has not been blown out at home often, and it has responded when it has been. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Prior to Friday, they had suffered 3 double-digit home losses this season. Following a 10-point home loss to the Grizzlies, they responded with a 114-110 road win over the Clippers. Following a double-digit home loss to Miami, they went on the road and covered the number with a 7-point loss at San Antonio. After a 10-point home loss to Milwaukee, they drilled the Knicks 92-63. These games clearly show the way getting kicked at home motivates this team. Take the points.

6* Big Ten Championship *CA$H COW* on Ohio State -1.5
The Key: Off back-to-back upset wins over Michigan and Ohio State, arguably the two most talented teams in the Big Ten, I expect Wisconsin to come back down to earth. However, even if the Badgers are able to rise to the occasion a third straight day, I don't believe they'll have quite enough to get past red-hot Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won their last 7 by an average of 12.9 points. They have two wins over Michigan State and a win at Indiana during this stretch so they are clearly playing some ball. Plus, they will be insanely motivated here because they were completely humiliated 71-49 at Wisconsin when these two last met. It's clear how much that loss motivated the Buckeyes as they haven't lost since and responded with a 71-45 win over Minnesota directly following it. While the Badgers showed up in their first two games of the tournament, Michigan and Indiana clearly weren't at their best. I'm confident Ohio State will be, and that spells trouble for Wiscy. The Badgers are only 2-10 ATS this season when matched up against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). Ohio State is on a 19-8 ATS run in games played away from home when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. The Buckeyes are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with winning percentage above .600. They've won these 5 by an average of 11.8. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz -1.5
The Key: This is a very tough spot for Memphis, which will be playing its 4th road game in 5 days. Utah will be the much fresher side as it has had 2 days of rest. The Jazz are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days' rest. The Jazz should also be the more motivated side as they look to avenge losses in the season's first 2 meetings. The fact they were kicked by Oklahoma City last time out throws more fuel on the fire. The Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Utah is one of the best home teams in the NBA year in and year out. It is 23-8 at home this season. It is even on an 8-3 ATS run at home games versus teams like Memphis with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. It is also worth noting that Utah is a rock solid 25-13 ATS in games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.

6* MAC Championship *CA$H COW* on Ohio pk
The Key: Ohio returns all 5 starters from a team that won 2 of 3 against Akron last season. However, those 5 starters haven't been able to get it done against the Zips this season. After getting kicked at Akron, the Bobcats lost to the Zips at home in OT in a game where they blew an 11-point halftime lead. Those losses will have Ohio extremely motivated here. The Bobcats are on a 42-23 ATS run when out for revenge for a same-season loss. They are on an even more impressive 33-12 ATS run when playing with double revenge and have won by an average score of 72.6 to 68.2 in this spot. Also, teams headed up by coach Jim Christian are 16-3 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a same-season loss in a game played away from home. His teams are also 18-6 ATS all-time as a neutral court favorite or pickem. Take Ohio.

7* Big 12 Tournament Game of the Year on Kansas State +5
The Key: K-State played Kansas to a 4-point game in the season's first meeting despite shooting just 35.1% from the field. It was blown out in the second meeting, but don't forget that game was played directly following a stretch where Kansas had lost 3 in a row. That was likely Kansas' most-motivated spot of the season. I believe this will be K-State's most-motivated spot. Teams headed up by coach Bruce Weber are 33-17 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 75 points or more. They have won by an average score of 72.5 to 68.5 in this situation. This trend speaks both to the adjustments Weber has been able to make and the way oddsmakers tend to overreact when teams put up a big point total. The Jayhawks have not done a very good job of taking care of the rock lately. They've had 15+ turnovers in 3 of their last 4 games and 5 of their last 8. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have had 14 turnovers or fewer in each of their last 7 games. Kansas doesn't do a good job of forcing turnovers so I fully expect K-State to win the turnover battle. The Wildcats are on a 28-13 ATS run in games played away from home 15+ games into the season versus teams that force 14 turnovers or fewer per game. The Wildcats have defeated these opponents by an average score of 69.7 to 68.3. K-State wins the turnover battle and will have an excellent chance to win this one outright as a result. Take the points.

6* Atlantic-10 *CA$H COW* on Butler +4
The Key: It's tournament time, which means it's Butler time. The Bulldogs are an awesome 17-4 ATS in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons. Saint Louis won the two regular-season meetings, but I believe the third time will be a charm for this quality Butler team, much like it was for Syracuse yesterday against Georgetown. Butler has wins over Indiana and Gonzaga so its certainly capable of getting the Billikens. The Bulldogs are an impressive 11-2 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pickem over the last 3 seasons. They have won these contests by an average score of 69.1 to 68.5. They are also 12-3 ATS the last 3 seasons when playing away from home versus top-level teams with a winning percentage greater than .800. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 69.6 to 68.5. Bet Butler.

6* NBA Letdown Game of the Week on Cavs +7
The Key: The Mavs were down 8 points late in San Antonio last night but made a ferocious comeback only to come up 1 point short when Vince Carter's 3-point attempt at the buzzer came up short. Dallas put a lot of stock into that game as it had lost each of the previous 3 meetings this season so it will have a tough time picking itself up off the floor in time for this one. With Oklahoma City up next on Sunday, the Mavs also face the sandwich effect here. The Cavs are without Kyrie Irving but find themselves in a great spot as they haven't played since Tuesday. They will be the much fresher side tonight. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record. It is also worth noting that they are 7-0 ATS this season on the road versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots/game. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 98.0 to 95.1. In a battle of teams that prefer to push the pace, I'll go with the team that has the fresher legs. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Lakers +10
The Key: This line is an overreaction to the absence of Kobe Bryant. The Lakers aren't going to quit because of Bryant's injury. They want to make the playoffs, and I expect them to keep fighting hard. Steve Nash and Dwight Howard are more than capable of picking up the slack. Everyone, not just Kobe, has picked up its play during a stretch where the Lakers have won 17 of 24. They have been resilient during this stretch, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. The Pacers check in off a blowout win over Minnesota but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a victory. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record. It is also worth noting that the road team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Lakers were upset by 2 points as an 8.5-point home favorite in the season's first meeting. However, teams headed up by Mike D'Antoni are on a 25-8 ATS run when out for revenge for a home upset loss where they were laying 7 points or more. His teams have responded to win by an average score of 110.4 to 101.7 in this situation. Take the points.

7* Big East Game of the Year on Syracuse +2.5
The Key: Syracuse has tasted defeat twice at the hand of Georgetown this season. The last loss was flat out ugly. The Orange fell 61-39 as they shot only 31.9% from the field and were 1 of 11 from 3-point range. That defeat will have them extremely motivated here. Since that loss, the lid has been lifted off the basket. Syracuse shot 56.2% in a win over Seton Hall and 46.8% in yesterday's win over Pittsburgh. The Orange enter this contest full of confidence. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two, and Cuse is 25-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pickem under coach Jim Boeheim. Even more important, it is 9-2 ATS under Boeheim when out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent. The Orange have won by an average score of 71.1 to 63.2 in these spots. This trend speaks to way Boeheim has been able to motivate and prepare his troops. Take the Orange as I like them to win this game outright.

6* Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan -3
The Key: The Wolverines had Wisconsin beat in Madison before Ben Brust threw in a half-court shot at the buzzer to force overtime. The Badgers went on to win. That loss is all the motivation Michigan will need here. Wisconsin is not the same team outside of Madison. In fact, it is just 6-7 SU and 3-9-1 ATS in games played away from home this season. If Indiana is the best team in the Big Ten, then Michigan is a close second. However, the season didn't go as planned for the Wolverines, who missed key free throws down the stretch in a loss to Indiana in their regular-season finale. That loss cost them a share of a second straight Big Ten title. This team wants some hardware, and it will be out to get it in the Big Ten tourney. John Beilein is one of the best in the business and his teams are on a 41-24 ATS run when out for revenge for a same-season loss. They are also on a 19-7 ATS run as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pickem. Recently, the Wolverines are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. The Badgers are just 6-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Lay the points as Michigan has its revenge.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* on Clemson +2
The Key: Clemson lost the two regular-season meetings by 5 and 3 points but are catching less than that here? The books clearly like Clemson's chances this time around, and I couldn't agree more. It says a lot about Clemson's defense that it was in both games considering how terribly it shot the ball. The Tigers were 18 of 30 from the free throw line in the first meeting. That's only 60%. Clemson isn't a good free throw shooting team but it's better than that. It's also worth noting that FSU uncharacteristically made 10 3-pointers in that game. It only averages 6 per game on the season. Take away a couple of those makes and Clemson wins. In the second meeting, FSU was uncharacteristically 18 of 20 from the foul line. That's far better than the 73.1% it averages. I believe the law of averages will catch up with the Seminoles here. History is on our side as well when you consider that neutral-court teams that check in off a road loss in which they were held to less than 60 points and are out for revenge for a loss in which they were held to less than 60 points are 77-42 ATS since 1997. In addition, Clemson is an outstanding 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the number in 4 or more consecutive games since 1997. It has won by an score of 67.2 to 64.3 in this situation. The Seminoles have covered the spread in their last two, but let's not forget that they were overvalued much of the season and are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Take Clemson.

7* Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Northwestern +10
The Key: Iowa won both regular-season meetings by 20 and 14 points and needs this game to keep its NCAA tourney hopes alive. Oddsmakers are looking to use this knowledge against bettors by overvaluing the Hawkeyes here. Northwestern has lost its last eight games but hasn't quit. The Wildcats played Ohio State and Michigan State to 10-point games, earning covers in both, down the stretch. If Northwestern can play two of the Big Ten elite to 10-point games, it can play Iowa even tougher. Iowa has been unbelievable at home this season, but it has struggled outside Carver-Hawkeye Arena. It has lost 6 of its last 7 outside Iowa City with the lone win coming by just 2 points over Penn State. It bodes well for us that Iowa enters off a 14-point win and cover over Nebraska as it is 3-12 ATS in road/neutral-court games since 1997 following a cover as a double-digit favorite. It has lost by an average score of 77.0 to 73.1 in this spot. It is also worth noting that Northwestern is 18-7 ATS since 1997 as a neutral-court underdog or pickem. It has lost these games on average but only by 2.8 points. I should also mention that the underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. All the pressure is on Iowa here. It's the team with something to lose. The Wildcats have the benefit of playing free and lose with nothing to lose. Take the points as they give Iowa a game this time around.

*note: please excuse the original typo. This is a 7* play, not a 5*

6* NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on Spurs -8
The Key: The Spurs, who are already without Tony Parker, were humiliated at Minnesota Tuesday, but Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard didn't play and they were in a letdown spot following a big win over the Thunder the previous night. With Duncan and Leonard back, and motivated to wash the sour taste of their most recent defeat out of their mouth, expect the Spurs to bounce-back strong this evening. San Antonio is a dominant 15-3 ATS in home games off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more since 1996. It has won by an average score of 103.1 to 89.8 points in these spots. The Spurs have won four straight over Dallas by an average of 21.5 points. They won the most recent meeting in Dallas by just 6 points, but Duncan didn't play in that game and Manu Ginobli logged only 8 minutes. While revenge can be a solid angle, this is not the time to play that card. That's because plays against teams that are out for revenge for 2 consecutive losses to an opponent that scored at least 100 points in each, provided that opponent checks in off a road loss of 20 points or more, are 36-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

6* Pac-12 Tourney *CA$H COW* on Washington State +2
The Key: After losing the season's first two meetings by narrow margins, I expect the third time to be the charm for Washington State. The Cougars enter the conference tournament full of confidence and momentum following back-to-back double-digit wins over UCLA and USC. I expect no letdown here given the level of motivation associated with losing the first two meetings in the series. The Huskies haven't been the same team away from home where they have lost 5 of their last 6. It's also worth noting that they are 0-7 ATS the last 3 seasons as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pickem. Take the Cougars.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks +1
The Key: Both teams played last night with the Lakers winning in Orlando and the Hawks going down in Miami. Playing on consecutive days should be a bigger issue for the Lakers, who are a much older team. In fact, the Lakers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Atlanta is 22-11 ATS the last 2 seasons in the second game of a back-to-back. The Hawks should be lacking no motivation here following last night's 17-point defeat. They should be further fueled by a 1-point loss in L.A. earlier this month. Atlanta is 9-1 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It has won by an average score of 101.8 to 88.0 in this situation. The Lakers are a public team and the public is really starting to fall in love with them after back-to-back covers. This is precisely the time to go against the grain as they are 3-13 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 12-2 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Hawks.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers -14
The Key: This is a letdown spot for Minnesota following last night's big win over the Spurs. Consider that the Timberwolves are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a win. Minnesota is also 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons after leading by 15 points or more at the half in its previous game. Meanwhile, this is a bounce-back and revenge spot for Indiana, which was whipped at Miami in its last game and lost on a last-second layup in the first meeting with Minnesota. Indiana has been virtually unstoppable at home where it is 25-7. Its home record is significant because the Timberwolves are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record. In addition, Indiana is 8-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season. There is also a system in our favor that supports home favorites playing only their 2nd game in 5 days against an opponent playing their 4th game in 5 days. This system is 35-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

7* Big East Tourney *HEAVY HITTER* on St. John's +5
The Key: Villanova is being overvalued here on a floor that St. John's is very familiar with. The Johnnies have played 9 games at MSG this season by my count. The Wildcats have beaten the best in the Big East but all of those wins came at home. They are just 2-6 in their last 8 away from home. Plus, St. John's proved it can hang with Villanova by taking the Cats to OT on the road during the regular season. Villanova has been notorious for playing up or down to the level of its competition. In fact, it is 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons versus average teams like St. John's that carry a winning percentage of 51% to 60%. It has lost these contests by an average score of 67.7 to 65.3. Take the points.

7* WAC Tournament Game of the Year on Seattle -4
The Key: Seattle is a better team than its record indicates. This is a team that played New Mexico State to 1 and 3-point games during the regular season. It even played Louisiana Tech to 7 and 6-point games. Texas State lost by double digits in all 4 meetings with those two schools. While Texas State wasn't as effective against elite competition, it managed to win both regular-season meeting with Seattle by 3 and 2 points. This tells me that the Redhawks didn't get up for lesser teams the same way they did for the top teams in the league. I expect that to change here. Motivated by those two losses and with a chance to make a Cinderella run to the Big Dance, I expect Seattle to roll. It bodes well for us that Seattle enters off a defeat as it is 10-2 ATS all-time when playing away from home following 1 or more consecutive losses under coach Dollar. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Timberwolves +9
The Key: Off a big win over the Thunder last night, expect the Spurs to suffer a letdown. San Antonio will have a tough time bouncing back from that win both emotionally and physically. Tony Parker has carried the team in the second game of back-to-backs, but they won't have his services this evening. Minnesota enters off an ugly 100-77 home loss to Dallas, but it is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Timberwolves are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall following a loss of more than 10 points. As if the Dallas loss isn't enough motivation, the Wolves have lost the season's first two meetings with San Antonio. Keep in mind the Spurs are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks +10
The Key: Motivation will not be an issue for the Hawks, which check in off back-to-back defeats. Furthermore, they have lost each of the season's first three meetings with Miami. Not only will Atlanta be motivated, it will be rested and prepared. The Hawks have had 2 days to rest and prepare while Miami has had just 1. It is significant that Atlanta enters off a double-digit loss to Brooklyn. That's because it is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. It is also significant that the Hawks lost by double digits the last time they faced Miami. That's because they are on a 15-5 ATS run in road games when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more. Miami was only favored by 6.5 points the last time it hosted Atlanta so the line has clearly been inflated due to Miami's win streak. Consider that the Heat are on a 5-17 ATS slide in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins. They have won these games on average but only by 2.6 points on average. Lastly, the road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points.

6* WCC Championship (ESPN) on Saint Mary's +6
The Key: Saint Mary's is getting what it wanted, another shot at Gonzaga. After playing the Bulldogs to a 5-point game on the road in the first meeting, the Gaels were blown out by 17 at home in the second meeting as the Zags were 9 of 17 from beyond the arc. Keep in mind they average just 6 3-point makes per game on the season. Prior to that defeat, St. Mary's had won or lost by less than 6 points in 6 of 8 meetings. Neutral count underdogs that are out for revenge for a double-digit defeat to an opponent, provided they check in off 3 straight wins over conference foes, are 41-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system have been underdogs of 6.3 points on average but have lost by only 1.7 points on average. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* (NBA TV) on Spurs -1.5
The Key: The Spurs will be lacking no motivation this evening. They are coming off their worst loss of the season and will also be out to avenge a 14-point loss at OKC in the most recent meeting. Consider that home teams that are out for revenge for a double-digit road loss, provided they check in off an upset loss of 15 points or more, are 17-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Spurs don't have Tony Parker, but they have a huge advantage in terms of fresh legs. This will be OKCs 2nd game in as many days and 4th in 5 days while the Spurs have had 2 days off. Home favorites that are playing their 2nd game in 5 days and are matched up against a team playing their 4th game in 5 days are 34-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, the Spurs are 13-4 ATS the last 2 seasons when playing on 2 days' rest. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on 76ers +6.5
The Key: The 76ers have been struggling, but I believe they will be lacking no motivation here. They will want to wash the sour taste of yesterday's 8-point loss to lowly Orlando out of their mouth as soon as possible. Plus, they have lost the season's first two meetings with Brooklyn, including a 20-point loss at home in the most recent meeting. Philly is a reliable 38-23 ATS when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 100 or more points on them under coach Collins. It has won these games by an average of .8 points. It is also 15-5 ATS under Collins when it checks in with 8 or more losses in its last 10 games. It has won by an average of 3.2 points in this spot. Also, the 76ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss while the Nets are 21-34 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS win. The Nets are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Philly and the points.

7* Conference Tourney *HEAVY HITTER* on Maryland Eastern Shore +12
The Key: Maryland Eastern Shore just lost at Savannah State 71-54 Mar. 7. That was an unlined game but it's clear the books want the money coming in on Savannah State by setting a line this much lower than the margin in the first meeting. With that decisive win fresh in its mind, Savannah State won't be able to help but look ahead. Besides, history in on the side of the Hawks here when you consider that neutral court teams that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 60 points, provided they check in off a road loss where they were held to less than 60 points, are 77-40 (65.8%) ATS since 1997. It is also worth noting that teams headed up by Frankie Allen are on a 16-5 ATS run in games played away from home against conference foes. The Tigers played just 4 lined games this season and were 1-3 ATS in those. They are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 lined contests. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings -1
The Key: The Bucks are at a disadvantage here because their starting five logged 169.77 minutes last night against Golden State. They had three other bench players log 65.14 minutes. This is significant because the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Kings had yesterday off so they should be the fresher side. The Kings have quietly been playing good basketball at home. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home with solid wins over the Rockets and Jazz during this stretch. They also took the Spurs and Nuggets down to the wire during this run. The Kings are an impressive 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams that sport a winning record while the Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that carry a winning percentage below .400. Lay the point.

7* Conference Tourney *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland -3
The Key: Oakland brought back four starters from a team that defeated IUPU Fort Wayne by double digits in both of last season's meetings. However, the Golden Grizzlies have lost both of this season's meetings by narrow margins. They lost the first meeting by six points because they were only 16 of 29 from the foul line. They lost the second meeting by only two points despite shooting only 38.7%. Prior to these losses, Oakland had won 10 straight in the series by an average of 10.0 points. Motivated by those defeats, I expect Oakland to continue its dominance of the Mastodons. It's tournament time, which means it's the Grizzlies' time. Oakland is 9-1 ATS all-time in conference tournament games under coach Greg Kampe. It has won these games by an average score of 74.5 to 67.8. It is also 10-1 ATS under Kampe in games when it is listed as a neutral floor favorite or pickem. It has won these contests by an average score of 84.5 to 68.5. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +6.5
The Key: Houston won at Golden State last night, but this is still a team that's only 14-20 on the road. The Rockets have been extremely overvalued on the road versus lesser competition this season. In fact, they are just 2-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. They have actually lost these games by an average of 2.4 points. The Rockets are a dismal 8-24 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Baylor +3.5
The Key: Anything is possible on selection Sunday so Baylor isn't about to pack it in, not when it has a chance to beat Kansas. The Jayhawks have been far from dominant on the road where they have been tested by everyone in the conference with the exception of Texas Tech. They even lost at lowly TCU so Baylor clearly has what it takes to knock of the Hawks in a season that has been filled with parody. Kansas won the first meeting, but Baylor is a reliable 63-50 ATS when out for revenge under coach Drew. It is also on an impressive 73-56 ATS run as an underdog. The Bears have lost their last two but are 41-18 ATS all-time under Drew when checking in off 2 or more consecutive losses. Take the points.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech +6.5
The Key: Texas can't be trusted laying this many points on the road, even against Texas Tech. The Longhorns are only 1-9 in true road games this season. Texas is also a soft 10-19 ATS when laying points over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS the last 2 seasons after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games (this trend excludes pushes). The Red Raiders will leave it all on the floor on senior day, especially after getting embarrassed by Kansas. Texas Tech is on an 11-2 ATS run in home games after failing to cover the number in 6 or 7 of their last 8. Take the points.

6* Atlantic 10 *CA$H COW* on George Washington +1
The Key: Dayton has been shooting out of its mind the last 5 games and is 4-1 during this stretch as a result. The hot shooting won't continue at George Washington as the Colonials have held their opponents to just 37.6% from the field at home this season. Dayton has struggled on the road where it has lost 7 of its last 8 SU and is on a 1-4 ATS slide. The Flyers check in off a win and cover but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the home team. The home side has won 5 in a row and 8 of 9. In terms of the line, the home team is on a 7-2 ATS run in the series. Take GW at home.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma State -5.5
The Key: Off a poor showing at Iowa State, I expect the Cowboys to respond against a team they have owned at home. Oklahoma State is 7-1 in its last 8 at home against Kansas State. The Wildcats won the first meeting but home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a same-season loss, provided four starters returning from last season, are 111-73 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Cowboys have been terrific at home for a long time. They are on a 30-17 ATS run as a home favorite or pickem. They are also on a 19-6 ATS run in Saturday home games. Kansas State does an excellent job taking care of the basketball, but Oklahoma State has never lost at home under coach Ford in games that take place at least 15 games into the schedule versus teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game. They are 7-0 ATS all-time in this spot with an average winning margin of 14.1 points. Lay the number.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* (CBS) on Kentucky +6.5
The Key: Kentucky has lost its last two but both of those came on the road. The Wildcats are a completely different team at home where they are 15-2 and have won their last 7. Florida hasn't been nearly as good on the road of late where it has lost its last 2 and 3 of its last 4. Florida won the first meeting but Calipari almost always gets his revenge. Consider that his teams are 34-12 ATS since 1997 when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 9.7 points. The Wildcats have won 5 of the last 6 meetings in the series overall and 5 straight at home. Take the points.

6* Conference Tourney *CA$H COW* on Troy +3
The Key: Troy has lost both of this season's meetings and was spanked by 21 at FAU in the most recent meeting, but I expect the third time to be the charm. Troy is a strong 24-12 ATS all-time under coach Maestri when out for revenge for a double-digit loss to an opponent, including 12-4 ATS if the loss came by 20 points or more. The Trojans have lost their last five games, but they are 18-6 ATS under Maestri in games when they check in with a losing streak of at least 3 games. FAU has really struggled away from its home court. In fact, it has lost its last 6 games played away from home by an average of 9.7 points. It went 3-3 ATS in those games.Troy, meanwhile, is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 played away from home. Take the points in this neutral court battle.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pistons +3.5
The Key: The Pistons have been struggling, but I don't think they are getting the respect they deserve at home against a Dallas squad that is only 10-21 on the road. While Detroit hasn't been able to break through often against quality competition, it has taken care of business against losing teams. In fact, the Pistons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams that have a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams that have a road winning percentage of less than .400. Detroit gave the Knicks all they wanted Wednesday while playing without Greg Monroe. Monroe is expected back tonight, which helps, but I like the Pistons catching points at home in this spot regardless.

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Bobcats +14.5
The Key: It's been another terrible season for the Bobcats, but this is a great spot for them. The Thunder just finished a stretch where they played the Nuggets, Clippers, Lakers and Knicks, and they have the Celtics and Spurs following this game. I believe they'll relax following such a high-intensity stretch, especially since a 114-69 win over the Bobcats in the first meeting will be in their mind. That loss was the worst in franchise history for the Bobcats and it will be out to save face here. Consider that double-digit underdogs that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 85 points, provided their opponent checks in off a win in a game they didn't cover, are 60-29 ATS since 1996. Also, the Thunder are a soft 5-16 ATS under coach Brooks when they check in off a close road win of 3 points or less. They have actually lost by an average score of 103.9 to 99.9 in these contests. The Thunder have been favored on the road by double digits just twice this season and lost straight up both times. Those losses came to Washington and Cleveland. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

6* WCC Tourney Bailout on Pepperdine +3
The Key: I'll back the Waves in what I believe to be their most motivated spot of the season. Pepperdine lost both regular season meetings and the conference tourney meeting with San Diego last season and is in danger of being swept in the same manner this season. It will do everything in its power to make sure that doesn't happen. There was nearly a month between the last regular season meeting and their tournament meeting last season and San Diego entered the tournament off a loss so it was very motivated. This time it's different as these two just met Saturday in their last regular season game. I believe playing so recently favors the Waves coming off a 7-point loss as they will be out for revenge. San Diego, which has now won 5 straight in the series, won't be able to help looking ahead to their next opponent. Consider that plays on any team that has been beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two teams that carry win percentages of 40% to 49%, are 41-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting that San Diego is just 16-27 ATS all-time under coach Grier in games when the line is +3 to -3. It's lost these games by an average score of 67.0 to 63.3. Take the points.

7* WAC Game of the Year on New Mexico State -2
The Key: New Mexico State saw its seven-game winning streak in the series come to an end with a 9-point loss at Louisiana Tech, but I expect a different result this time around. The Aggies are 13-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to New Mexico - the 11th ranked team in the country. New Mexico State has never lost to Louisiana Tech at home since joining the WAC. It is a perfect 8-0 all-time with an average winning margin of 8.5 points. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Bailout on Nevada +9
The Key: Nevada has lost 5 in a row, but I like its chances on senior night against a New Mexico team with nothing to play for. The Lobos have already wrapped up the conference title. Besides, Nevada is a perfect 7-0 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1997. It has lost these games on average but only by 3.9 points. New Mexico won the first meeting by 13 but only led by two at the half and had a difficult time slowing down Malik Story and Deonte Burton, who combined for 33 points. The Wolf Pack are on a 44-23 ATS run when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Washington State +3.5
The Key: After sweeping the season series from Arizona, the Bruins won't be able to help looking past a Washington State squad they have defeated eight consecutive times. The Cougars have lost 9 in a row, but have been competitive at home. They lost to Oregon by only 2 points in OT in their last home game. They have also been competitive at home against UCLA. They lost by just 3 points in last season's home meeting with the Bruins and by only 4 points in the 2011 home meeting. It bodes well for us that Washington State enters off a 4-point loss at Washington. That's because it is 8-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average score of 73.2 to 60.8 in this spot. The Bruins are a soft 8-15 ATS as a favorite this season and 2-9 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season. Lastly, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +3
The Key: I really like the Pistons at home tonight whether Carmelo Anthony suits up or not. The Knicks beat Cleveland Monday but needed 70 points from the bench to erase a 22-point deficit. That big come from behind win places them in a letdown spot here, especially since they host Oklahoma City tomorrow night and have won the season's first three meetings with Detroit decisively. The Knicks will be looking ahead to a matchup with a bigger fish. The Knicks are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. They have struggled when getting only a day of rest as they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Pistons, meanwhile, are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Lastly, it is certainly worth noting that the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Iowa State -3
The Key: Off back-to-back losses, including an ugly one at Oklahoma last time out, I expect Iowa State to bounce-back strong at home on senior night. The Cyclones are 15-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to Kansas in OT in a game the officials cost them by blowing a call down the stretch. Oklahoma State won the first meeting by 2 points, but Iowa State is 13-5 ATS when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Cyclones are also an awesome 40-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is just 3-13 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pickem under coach Ford. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Kings +5
The Key: This is a sandwich game for the Nuggets. They are coming off a big win over Atlanta last night, and they have the Clippers on deck. They'll be much more worried about their next one than a Sacramento squad they have defeated by 25 and 28 points this season. Those losses assure us the Kings will be motivated here. Plus, we can't forget that Sacramento is a solid 15-13 at home on the season while the Nuggets are just 13-19 on the road. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Also, they are 12-1 ATS all-time under coach Smart when out for revenge for two straight losses of 10 points or more to an opponent. They have lost on average in this spot but only by 3.5 points. Take the points.

7* C-USA Game of the Month on Marshall +6.5
The Key: Marshall was embarrassed 103-76 at Houston last time out. It was also humiliated 102-46 at Southern Miss Jan. 23. These losses put Marshall into its most motivated spot of the season. Plus, its level of motivation increases because this is the last home game of the year (senior night). There is a good chunk of history on our side as home teams that are out for revenge for a loss in which they were held to less than 50 points, provided they also check in off a road loss of 20 points or more, are 94-54 ATS since 1997. It is also worth noting that the Thundering Herd are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 20 points. While the Thundering Herd have taken their lumps on the road, they are an impressive 10-4 at home with 2 of the losses coming by 4 points or less. Southern Miss hasn't been the same force on the road. It's 4-2 in its last 6 road games but none of these wins came by more than 4 points. Teams headed up by coach Tom Herrion are 10-2 ATS all-time when coming off 2 straight losses against conference foes. They have responded to win by an average score of 74.3 to 67.4 in these games. Lastly, Marshall is 4-1 in the last 5 home meetings in the series with the lone loss coming by 5 points. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Bobcats +13
The Key: There is plenty of history supporting this play on the Bobcats. Right away I like the fact that road underdogs that have failed to cover the number in 12 or more of their last 15 games are 107-61 ATS since 1996. This system instantly tightens up to 40-16 ATS if the team is playing at least its 8th game in 14 days, which is the case. Additionally, underdogs of 10 of more points that are playing their third game in 4 days and have failed to cover the number in at least 8 of their last 10 games are 57-27 ATS since 1996. Underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games and are up against an opponent that checks in off a cover are 159-96 ATS since 1996. This system tightens up to 26-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. These systems leave no doubt that the value lies with the Bobcats. Plus, it is also worth noting that the Blazers are a soft 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a winning percentage below .400. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Southern Utah +2.5
The Key: This is a difficult spot for Montana, which will be playing its second road game in three days and its fifth straight road game overall. The Grizzlies have to be feeling pretty road-weary by now. Plus, they enter off a hard-fought win over in-state rival Montana State, which puts them in a letdown spot here. Southern Utah hasn't played since last Thursday so it will be well rested and well prepared. Plus, it's the last home game of the season (senior night) for the Thunderbirds so I'm expecting one of their best efforts of the season. Southern Utah played Montana to a six-point game in the first meeting despite 21 turnovers and being outscored at the foul line by 26 points because of the slow pace Montana plays. It's easier to hang with teams like Montana that average few possessions, and I like Southern Utah's chances of pulling off the upset here if they can take better care of the basketball and limit the amount of times they send Montana to the line. Since committing 21 giveaways in the first matchup, the Thunderbirds have committed 14 or less in 10 of 11 games. Plus, they will make a conscious effort not to foul as much in this game. Southern Utah is 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played at least 15 games into the schedule versus half-court teams that average 53 shots or less per game. The Thunderbirds have won these games by an average of 10.0 points. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Timberwolves +10
The Key: The Heat were able to avenge a pair of 20-point losses to the Knicks with a huge come-from-behind victory in New York Sunday. However, that loss sets them up for a letdown in Minnesota where the T-Wolves have quietly been competitive. The Wolves have won or lost by 10 points or less in each of their last seven home games while playing good opponents like the Spurs and Knicks during this stretch. The Heat have not been a good investment following a game where the key guys log a lot of minutes. In fact, they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Heat are even on a 1-6 ATS skid in road games versus teams that have a losing record at home. The Wolves were kicked last time out but typically bounce-back strong, as evidence by the fact they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss of more than 10 points. In addition, underdogs of 10 or more points that have lost 8 or more of their last 10 games and are up against a team that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 67-35 ATS the last 5 seasons. Underdogs of 10 or more points that have been beaten against the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, provided they carry a winning percentage of 25% to 40%, are 27-10 ATS the last 3 seasons. Lastly, underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, provided they carry a winning percentage of 25% to 40%, are 32-15 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Hawks +6
The Key: Like clockwork, the Lakers are being overvalued yet again following a win. LA rolled Minnesota by 22 last time out and this line is being inflated as a result. Ask yourself if the Lakers should be laying this many points against a team with 4 more wins that has victories against the Thunder (on the road), Pacers, Clippers, Nuggets, Grizzlies (on the road), Bulls and Celtics. The Lakers are a soft 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS win, and fading them following a cover is 16-5 ATS under D'Antoni. LA is also just 11-23 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, and I expect them to give LA all it wants and more here.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston College +5
The Key: Off Thursday's huge win over Duke, I expect Virginia to suffer a letdown here. Plus, nothing has come easy for the Cavs away from home where they are 2-5 in ACC play. It is worth noting that they are even on a 9-21 ATS slide in road games when playing against teams that have a losing record. They have won these games on average but only by 2.7 points. While we find Virginia in a letdown spot, Boston College will be in extreme bounce-back mode following back-to-back double-digit losses on the road. The Eagles will be happy to be back home where they have won 2 straight and have played Duke and Miami to 1-point games. The Eagles will be further motivated by an 65-51 loss at Virginia in the first meeting. That loss actually bodes well for us as Boston College is 9-1 ATS all-time under Steve Donahue in home games when out for revenge for a loss where it was held to less than 60 points. The Eagles have had their revenge by an average of 1.0 point in this situation. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* (ABC) on Heat -4.5
The Key: The Miami Heat have lost each of the season's first two meetings with the Knicks by 20 points. You know that's not sitting well with the reigning champs. Those defeats place the Heat in arguably their most motivated spot of the entire season. In addition, these two haven't met since Dec. 6 and a lot has changed since then. The Knicks have come back down to earth while the Heat have regained their championship form. The Heat have won 13 in a row and are a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road during this stretch with marquee double-digit wins at OKC and Chicago. The Knicks are just 3-4 in their last 7, including 0-4 ATS at home during this stretch with one of the losses coming via blowout to the Clippers. Miami has been blowing out good teams on the road while the Knicks were blown out at home by the best team they've faced recently. Miami is in better form and will be extremely hungry. Lay the points.

6* SEC *CA$H COW* (ESPN2) on Auburn +2
The Key: Auburn has been plain bad in its last two games at Ole Miss and Alabama. It was outrebounded by double digits in both and managed no more than 55 points in either. These are just the type of teams I like to back. Back home, hungry to get back in the win column and to avenge a double-digit loss at Vandy, Auburn will show up in a big way. The Tigers are on a 19-8 ATS run in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They are also on an 11-1 ATS run following 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference foes. Auburn is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Barbee in home games after being held to 60 points or less in 2 straight games. It has won by an average score of 65.3 to 62.1 in this situation. It is also on an 8-0 ATS run after 2 straight games of being outrebounded by 10 or more. It has won by an average score of 68.7 to 62.8 in this spot.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Raptors +5.5
The Key: Motivated by three consecutive defeats and further fueled by 8 straight losses to the Bucks, the Raptors will have no trouble getting up for this one. Milwaukee has won its last two but neither win came by more than 5 points. In fact, the Bucks haven't recorded a win of more than 5 points since Feb. 2. It is also worth noting that each of their last six games have been decided by 5 or less so I'm liking the 5.5 on our side. The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 17-35 ATS in their last 52 home games. The Raptors, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest and 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Lastly, the road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

6* Under the Radar Annihilator on Tennessee State pk
The Key: After back-to-back upset losses at home to Loyola-MD and Morehead State, you can bet Tennessee State will be hungry. It's senior night, and the Tigers will be motivated to close out the regular season strong. Prior to those two defeats, Tennessee State was a perfect 10-0 at home where it pounded first place Belmont 80-69. Belmont won both meetings with Eastern Kentucky, which gives you a better idea of just how impressive that win was. Let me put it this way. If the Tigers can take care of Belmont at home, they can take care of Eastern Kentucky. The home team has dominated this series winning each of the past five meetings by an average of 9.4 points. Take Tennessee State.

6* Big 12 *CA$H COW* (ESPN2) on Baylor -2.5
The Key: Baylor is on Joe Lunardi's first four out list, which means it needs a big win in the worst way. K-State rolled in the first meeting, but I'm expecting a very different result this time around given Baylor's heightened sense of desperation. K-State hasn't been a quality road investment, especially on Saturday. In fact, the Wildcats are a soft 6-15 ATS in Saturday road games the last 3 seasons. They are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games overall. It also bodes well for us that K-State enters off a 20-point win over Texas Tech where it held the Red Raiders to only 55 points. That's because the Wildcats are 3-11 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 55 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

6* ACC *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Duke -6.5
The Key: Off a loss at Virginia and out for revenge for an ugly 27-point loss at Miami, Duke will be ready to go this evening. The Blue Devils have struggled on the road, but they have been completely dominant inside Cameron where they are 14-0 with a 20-point average margin of victory. Miami has had an extra day to gear up for this one, but consider that favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for an upset loss on the road, provided they are playing their 2nd game in 3 days, are 68-34 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 6.9 points on average and have won by an average of 9.5 points. Also, Duke is an impressive 17-7 ATS all-time under Coach K in home games when playing with one or less days' rest. It has won by 27.6 points on average in this situation. Lay the points.