6* GoDaddy Bowl "Total" Annihilator on Toledo/Arkansas State Under 69.5

The Key: You want to play the "under" when the total is between 63.5 and 70.0 in a neutral-field matchup between teams that average 440.0 ypg or more as doing so has produced a 32-16 mark the last 10 seasons. In addition, Toledo is on a 9-0 "under" run versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more and a 9-0 "under" run versus teams that average 450.0 ypg or more. Arkansas State is on a 7-0 "under" run in games played away from home after allowed 31 points or more in its last two games. Take the under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings +4

The Key: The Kings are showing value catching points against a Detroit team that is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Kings were a terrible investment in December but are now showing great value here as odds makers have overadjusted their lines. You want to take underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games when they are taking on an opponent that has covered the spread in four or five of their last six games. Doing so has produced a 77-37 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

6* Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Washington State +9.5

The Key: While the line is currently 9.5, it opened at 10.0 so the following system still applies. You want to fade favorites of 10.0 to 19.5 points that are off a win of six points or less when they are matched up against an opponent that is off a loss of 15 points or more as doing so has produced a 125-74 ATS mark the last five seasons. Cal is off a big win over Washington so it will have a hard time getting refocused to face a Washington State team it swept last season. The Golden Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Cougars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFC Wild Card Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Lions +7.5

The Key: Dallas is being overvalued following four straight impressive wins and covers to close the regular season. Detroit is the superior defensive team, and this is the time of year to side with defense. In games played eight games or more into the schedule, you want to back teams that give up just 14.0-18.0 ppg when they are matched up against a team that allows 18.0-23.0 ppg as doing so has produced a 50-24 ATS mark over the last five seasons. So much of Dallas' success has stemmed from its running game, but now the Cowboys will be up against the top run-stuffing unit in the league. Romo is just 5-17 ATS versus teams that give up only 14.6-20.6 ppg. Dallas is 8-19 ATS as a home favorite under coach Garrett and just 1-8 ATS under its current coach following a stretch of five or six covers in a seven-game span.

7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Bengals +4

The Key: I think Cincinnati will want this game just a little bit more. It was embarrassed 27-0 in Indy Oct. 19 so it will be highly motivated. Plus, this Bengals team will draw additional motivated from three consecutive early exits from the postseason. The aforementioned loss to the Colts was a turning point in Cincy's season as it responded by going 7-3 the rest of the way, including 4-1 on the road. The Colts are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games versus teams that have a winning record. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Marvin Lewis in road games when seeking revenge for a loss to a team that held them to fewer than nine points. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on San Francisco +5

The Key: This is a very difficult spot for BYU, playing a second road game in three days and riding high off a blowout win over Santa Clara. The Cougars have been a terrible investment following a cover at 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 games following an ATS win. They are also 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a win of more than 20 points and 0-6 ATS the last two seasons following a stretch of eight wins or more in a 10-game span. The Dons will be highly motivated after dropping their last two league games, and they will also be fueled by losing each of last season's three meetings with the Cougars. The Dons are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss and 41-15 ATS in their last 56 versus West Coast Conference foes. San Francisco is also 14-5 ATS all-time under coach Rex Walters following a home loss to a conference opponent. Take the points.

7* Saturday NFL Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +4

The Key: I'm not hesitating to grab the points with the Ravens considering how tight this series has been. While this season's two prior meetings resulted in blowout victories for the home team, this has not been the norm. Entering the season, these two had played each other to within three points or fewer in nine of 11 battles, including five straight. Including this season, Baltimore has won or lost by fewer than four points in seven of the last eight meetings. This has been a good time of year to back the Ravens as they are on a 5-0 ATS run in the playoffs, a 4-0 ATS run in road playoff games and a 4-0 ATS run in wild card contests. In addition, you want to take teams like Baltimore after a game in which they didn't commit a turnover if they are up against an opponent that committed three or more turnovers last game. Doing so has produced a 73-52 ATS record the last five seasons. Baltimore is 7-0 ATS the last three seasons in road games after a game with a turnover margin of plus-two or better and has won by an average score of 24.9 to 19.0 in this spot. Take the points.

6* Saturday NFC Wild Card Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Cardinals +6.5

The Key: You want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points eight games or more into the schedule if they allowed three points or less in the first half of their last game and if it's a matchup between these with a +/-3 3.0 points per game differential. Doing so has produced a 38-10 ATS mark since 1983, including a perfect 6-0 ATS record over the last five seasons. Arizona has hung its hat on defense all season. While it held the 49ers to just 20 points last time out, it allowed them to gain 395 yards on 59 plays. This is no deterrent for me as teams headed up by Arians are 9-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 yards per play or more in their previous game and have won these nine by an average score of 21.7 to 13.9. Carolina's struggles against the run also bode well for the Cardinals. Arians' teams are 7-0 ATS in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 4.5 yards per carry or more, and they have won these by an average score of 25.4 to 16.9. The Panthers are off a big win and cover in Atlanta but are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Loyola Marymount +9.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for St. Mary's as it plays a second road game in three days. Consider that the Gaels are 2-10 ATS the last three seasons in road games when playing a second game in three days and have lost these contests by an average score of 65.6 to 64.5. We are getting some additional line value here because the Gaels have covered their last three games and Loyola Marymount has failed to cover its last two. St. Mary's is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Under the Radar Line Mistake on UNC Wilmington +4.5

The Key: UNC Wilmington is better than its 5-6 record might lead you to believe. Eight of its games have been true road contests, including each of its last three. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this season and will be excited to finally get back in front of the home fans. They will also be extremely hungry after losing all three of last season's meetings with Hofstra. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. They are on a 10-2 ATS run at home after a game where they were called for at least 10 fouls more than their opponent.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Mississippi State +2.5

The Key: Now's the time to fade Florida State, which has won its last four and is coming off a big upset win over in-state rival Florida. The Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and on a 12-26 ATS slide following four or more consecutive victories. Mississippi State is on a 29-15 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. It is also on a 22-10 ATS run at home when the line is +3 to -3. Lastly, the Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams that are called for 3.0 or more fouls per game than their opponents under coach Ray. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Magic +1.5

The Key: Brooklyn is primed for a letdown as it has won five of six and is coming off a big win over Chicago. It also has a revenge game against Miami on deck so it will likely be looking ahead to that matchup rather than focusing on a team it defeated by eight points earlier this season. The home team has had a significant edge in this series as it is 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 12.2 points. Take Orlando.

7* NCAAF Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +4

The Key: Iowa underachieved this season, and the coaching staff is taking plenty of heat from the fan base as a result. If Iowa loses to Tennessee, head coach Kirk Ferentz will enter next season on the hot seat. I expect him to have his team fully prepared and motivated to make sure that doesn't happen. Ferentz typically does a good job in bowl prep and is an impressive 4-2 in bowls versus current SEC teams. Iowa blew a big lead and lost to Nebraska in OT in its regular-season finale, but it has been terrific in bounce-back spots at 41-19-1 ATS in its last 61 games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS the last two seasons when playing away from home following a loss and have won these games by an average of 10.2 points. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games and 4-1 ATS in their last five versus SEC foes. Take the points.

6* Sugar Bowl Bailout on Alabama -8.5

The Key: Cardale Jones looked pretty good against Wisconsin in his first college start, but he was able to play more free with a big lead in his back pocket. He won't have the same luxury here as he goes up against an entirely different animal. I expect his inexperience to really show against an elite defense. Ohio State is 0-9 against the SEC in bowls (2011 Sugar Bowl win against Arkansas was vacated). The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus Big Ten opponents. The SEC has won seven of the last eight national titles. It's the superior conference, and Alabama is in good position to continue the dominance against an Ohio State team in a tough QB predicament.

6* Rose Bowl *CA$H COW* on Florida State +9

The Key: The defending national champs won't go down without a fight, and I expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder. They are being completely disrespected by odds makers, and Jameis Winston will be out to prove that he is the better QB after not even being invited to the Heisman ceremony this year. He also catches a break as Oregon will be without first-team All-America corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Winston is 29-0 as a starter, and the Noles 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl games. Take the points.

7* New Year's Day *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin +7

The Key: Wisconsin will be lacking no motivation after being brutally embarrassed in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers will draw added motivation from head coach Gary Anderson leaving for Oregon State. They will be out to show Anderson he made the wrong move. Auburn won't be that excited about this game after playing for a national title last year. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that have a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last six games on grass. Wisconsin wasn't able to run the football on Ohio State as it was held to just 71 yards on the ground, but Auburn isn't as physical as Ohio State up front. Besides, the Badgers take pride in their running attack and are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Take the points.

7* Orange Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Mississippi State -6.5

The Key: Mississippi State has done an excellent job stuffing the run this season. It ended the regular season ranked 25th in the nation against the run with 126.5 yards per game allowed. With a month to prepare for Georgia Tech's run-heavy attack, the Bulldogs should take care of business. They are 11-3 ATS versus excellent running teams that average 5.25 yards per carry or more under coach Mullen. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 1-4 ATS in their last five versus SEC opponents. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Purdue +2

The Key: This is a bad spot for the Golden Gophers, who will be on the road for the first time since Dec. 2. They will also have a tendency to look ahead to Saturday's showdown at Maryland. Purdue has lost its last three, falling to Gardner-Webb in its most recent contest, so it will highly motivated here. Purdue is 7-0 in its last seven home games versus Minnesota and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall. It is also 8-0 ATS on Wednesday the last two seasons. The Golden Gophers are on a 0-7 ATS slide after two consecutive games where both it and its opponent scored 75 points or more. Take Purdue.

6* NCAAB Under the Radar *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +3

The Key: I like South Alabama catching points at home in a game in which it should be highly motivated. The Jaguars have lost four straight to Arkansas State, including an ugly 24-point loss on this floor in the most recent matchup, and they will be out for some serious revenge. Arkansas State has been a poor play in Sun Belt action at 0-7 ATS in its last seven versus conference foes. It is also worth noting that the Red Wolves are 2-9 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road favorite under coach Brady and have lost in this spot by an average score of 74.5 to 66.5. Lastly, you want take any team that has been held to 65 points or less in three straight games that returns two more starters than their opponent. Doing so has produced a 190-119 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA Total of the Month on Spurs/Grizzlies Under 194.5

The Key: Odds makers are well off the mark here. The total was set at 191.0 the last time these teams met. They tallied 233 total points in that game but needed triple-OT to do so. They combined for just 184 points at the end of regulation so this number should have went the other way if anything. The Spurs are 8-1 "under" this season in road games after playing a home game, and we have seen just 187.0 total points scored on average in these contests. Take the under.

7* Pre-New Year's Bowl Game of the Year on Notre Dame +7.5

The Key: Notre Dame is being undervalued because of a 0-4 finish that ended with a 49-14 loss at USC. I'll gladly take the points as the Fighting Irish won or lost by four points or less in all but two games this season. This is too many points for LSU to be laying considering how much it has struggled offensively this season. The Tigers rank 83rd in the country in total offense and have no passing game. The Fighting Irish will make LSU beat them through the air, and I don't see it happening. While LSU is stout defensively, Notre Dame has an offense capable of giving the Tigers problems. The Irish boast the 34th-best offense in the nation overall and the 16th-best passing attack. In addition, LSU is 1-8 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home that following a win. It has lost these contests by an average score of 24.5 to 19.6. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Nets Under 204.5

The Key: You want to play the "under" on teams like Brooklyn that are off two or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against an opponent that is off five or more consecutive overs. Doing so has produced a 60-25 mark the last five seasons. The under is 9-1 in the Nets' last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 6-0 in their last six versus the Western Conference and 4-0 in their last four games following an ATS loss. Take the under.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on James Madison +3.5

The Key: As if back-to-back losses to High Point and Norfolk aren't enough motivation, James Madison was clobbered 81-49 at Valpo last season. Look for the Dukes to have their revenge tonight. You want to fade favorites that have had seven or more days off in a non-conference matchup between mid-majors as doing so has produced a 35-12 ATS mark the last five seasons. Valpo has been able to take it to its opponents on the boards, but I expect James Madison to be up to the challenge here. The Dukes are on a 13-3 ATS run versus teams that outrebound the opposition by 7.0 boards per game or more. Take the points.

7* Liberty Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M +2.5

The Key: West Virginia has struggled against strong passing teams like Texas A&M. In fact, the Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home versus teams that average 275.0 yards per game through the air or more. They have lost these contests by an average score of 47.7 to 23.5. It is also worth noting that West Virginia hasn't performed well when getting extra time off in recent seasons. It is 0-7 ATS the last three seasons when getting more than a typical week of preparation time. In addition, the Mountaineers are on a 0-8 ATS slide when laying points on a neutral field and have lost these games by an average score of 30.4 to 24.5. Sumlin does an excellent job preparing his kids and has won his first two bowls at A&M. Take the Aggies.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs +1

The Key: Even if Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard doubtful, I like the Spurs at home in what should be a highly motivated spot. The Spurs have lost their last two and were routed in the season's first meeting with Houston so they will be out for payback. The Spurs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a winning road record. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade road teams that went over the total by 18 points or more in their previous game if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 31-7 ATS mark the last five seasons.

6* NFC South *CA$H COW* on Panthers +3

The Key: Atlanta hasn't been the same juggernaut at home the last two seasons, and it has gotten nothing easy against the Panthers. Carolina is 3-2 in the last five meetings with the two losses coming by just two points each so I feel very comfortable grabbing the points here. The Atlanta offense has been going good the last few games, which means it's time to fade away. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in home games the last three seasons after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. It has lost these contests by an average score of 25.5 to 21.7. The Panthers are perfect this December, which comes as no surprise because they've thrived late in the season since Rivera took over in 2011, going 14-3 in December under his watch. They are also 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games under Rivera and have won these by an average score of 31.0 to 17.7.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Monmouth -2.5

The Key: Monmouth had been playing well with three wins in a four-game stretch until it was sent into its Christmas break with an ugly 71-46 loss to St. Francis-NY. That loss assures us the Hawks will come out of break with plenty of motivation. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Rutgers went into its break with a blowout win over Sacred Heart so it won't have nearly the same level of focus here. Plus, it begins Big Ten play Tuesday so this is a prime look-ahead spot for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games following a ATS win. Lay the points.

6* NFC East Annihilator on Giants -2

The Key: Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, and I'm backing the team on the upswing. The Eagles were sitting 9-3 and controlled their own destiny but have lost their last three games and are eliminated from playoff contention. The Giants haven't quit on the season despite being out of playoff contention a long time ago. They've won their last three and will be lacking no motivation as they try to avenge a 27-0 loss in Philadelphia earlier this season. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to back teams that are seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent if they are also off an upset win of 10 points or more on the road. Doing so has produced a 39-15 ATS mark since 1983. This system is 3-0 ATS this season. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 10-2 ATS in home games since 1992 when seeking revenge for a blowout loss of 21 points or more, and they have won by an average of 8.3 points in this spot.

7* NFC North Game of the Year on Bears +7

The Key: Just when it looked like Jay Cutler might never take another snap for the Chicago Bears, the football gods have given him another chance. I expect Cutler to make the most of his opportunity. Cutler has often been at his best against the Vikings, winning seven of his last eight starts in the series. This line is an overreaction to Minnesota's five-game cover streak as well as the public perception of Cutler. Chicago is 8-0 ATS since 1992 off a home cover in a game it lost. You want to fade home teams that are off a road loss if they carry a win percentage of .400 to .490 and are playing a team with a win percentage of .250 to .400. Doing so has produced a 46-14 ATS mark since 1983.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Mexico State +3

The Key: This is a good situation to back New Mexico State. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to back home teams that are off a win of 15 points or more when they are matched up with a team that has scored 75 points or more in three straight games. Doing so has produced a 14-1 ATS mark the last three seasons and a 24-4 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, New Mexico State is 7-0 ATS the last three seasons following a game where they led by 15 points or more at halftime. The Rams are 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 games overall, 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win, 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 20 points. Take the points.

6* Pinstripe Bowl *CA$H COW* on Penn State +3

The Key: I'll grab the points with Penn State as it wins this one with its run defense. Everything Boston College does offensively is set up by its running game, but it will have a hard time running the football against a Penn State defense that leads the nation with 84.8 ypg allowed on the ground. The Eagles have been incredibly unreliable this time of year at 0-7 ATS in their last seven December contests. The Nittany Lions have been a sound investment outside of league play at 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Take the points.

7* Independence Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3.5

The Key: The South Carolina defense took a big step back this season, and it's this side of the football that will cost them against the Hurricanes. The Gamecocks rank 93rd nationally in both total and scoring defense and have been especially bad against the run, ranking 108th with 214.4 yards per game allowed. That doesn't bode well for them as they get set to face Duke Johnson, who has 1,520 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Miami has been exceptional defensively, ranking 14th in the country in total defense. It has been especially strong against the pass, ranking 10th in the nation with 184.1 yards per game allowed. The Hurricanes should have success slowing down a South Carolina offense that likes to throw the football. The Hurricanes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Lay the points.

6* Military Bowl Early Annihilator on Virginia Tech +3

The Key: The Hokies became bowl eligible with a 24-20 win over Virginia in their regular season finale, and history says they'll build on that momentous victory. Consider that they are 13-3 ATS in games played away from home following a win of six points or less since 1992 and have won these contests by an average score of 28.1 to 16.1. The Bearcats are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven bowl games while the 5-2 ATS in their last seven December contests. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Pistons +2.5

The Key: The Pacers have been a terrible investment when coming off a win as they are on a 12-26-1 ATS slide following victory. Indiana is coming off a nice upset win at home over New Orleans but is a pathetic 2-12 ATS following an upset win at home under coach Vogel. It has lost by an average score of 96.0 to 87.6 in this situation. The Pistons have had the last four days off and spent that time focusing on defense. I expect a strong defensive effort here. I also expect the offense to be much more efficient after getting rid of Josh Smith, who led the team in field-goal attempts despite shooting just 39.1 percent. Take the points.

6* Quick Lane Bowl *CA$H COW* on North Carolina -3

The Key: Following a slow 2-4 start, UNC won four of its next five behind an explosive offense. Wins over Georgia Tech and Duke during this stretch were especially impressive. However, the Tar Heels were kicked by NC State at home in their regular-season finale, which assures us they entered bowl prep unsatisfied and highly motivated. Defense held the Heels back this season, but Rutgers is far from explosive offensively, and they have had a month to prepare for the Scarlet Knights. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Rutgers doesn't have nearly the resume of North Carolina with Navy and Maryland being its best wins. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat +5.5

The Key: The Cavs are being overvalued here on the road where they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Cleveland has been inconsistent defensively this season and is 0-5 ATS in its last five games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The Cavaliers are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Heat got caught looking ahead to this matchup and lost to lowly Philadelphia as a result. They'll be even more focused and motivated here because of that defeat. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Miami will be looking to send a message to LeBron James that he made the wrong decision. Take the points.

6* Bahamas Bowl *CA$H COW* on Central Michigan +4

The Key: Even with RB Thomas Rawls expected to miss due to academic issues, I like Central Michigan's chances of being able to run the football against a Western Kentucky defense that is one of the worst in the nation. The Hilltoppers rank 123rd in the country in both total and scoring defense with 502.1 yards and 39.2 points allowed per game. They rank 116th against the run with 229.8 ypg allowed. This bodes well for the Chippewas, who are 8-1 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that give up an average of 6.25 yards per play or more. They are 10-2 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that allow 200.0 ypg on the ground or more. I like the Chipps catching more than a field goal because of their ability to run the football, which will keep the ball out of the hands of the Western Kentucky offense.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Bucks -5.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for the Hornets, who are playing their second game in as many nights and fourth in five days. Milwaukee will be the much fresher side as it has had the last two days off. The Hornets are 21-47 ATS in their last 68 games when playing without a day of rest. The Bucks should also be the hungrier side as they have lost six straight to Charlotte, including a two-point loss in their season opener. The Bucks are 15-6 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent. Milwaukee has taken care of business against weaker competition as it is 11-2 ATS versus teams with losing records this season. It has also bounced back nicely at 11-2 ATS following a loss on the season. You want to fade underdogs that beat the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game if that have a win percentage of just .250 to .400 on the season. Doing so has produced a 26-4 ATS mark the last five seasons.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Niagara +2

The Key: Niagara will be the hungrier team tonight. Not only will it be out to bring a six-game losing streak to an end, but it will also be out for revenge for last season's 25-point loss at Arkansas State. This is not the same Arkansas State team that we saw last season as it didn't return a single starter. Plus, Niagara isn't as bad as its record looks. It has played just two home games thus far. The Red Wolves have been a bad investment at 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win and 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record. The Purple Eagles are on a 13-4 ATS run at home after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Take Niagara.

6* Boca Raton Bowl *CA$H COW* on Marshall -9.5

The Key: While Marshall has won just one more game than Northern Illinois this season, it is a hefty favorite here for a reason. The Huskies are on a 0-7 ATS slide in games played away from home versus teams that have outscored the opposition by 17.0 ppg or more on the season. They have lost these contests by an average score of 43.7 to 14.7. Northern Illinois hasn't seen anything like this Marshall offense all season. And, Marshall also has the edge on the defensive side of the football. Lay the points.

6* Monday Night Football "Total" Annihilator on Broncos/Bengals Over 47

The Key: We are getting a good number here because Denver has finished under the total in three straight and Cincy has come in under the number in five of its last six. The Broncos are 21-9 "over" when the total is 42.5 to 49.0 points under coach Fox. They are 8-0 all-time "over" versus AFC North foes under Fox, and we have seen an average of 56.0 total points scored in these games. When the line is 42.5 to 49.0, you want to play the "over" on teams like Denver that have outscored the opposition by 4.0 ppg or more on the season if they allowed three points or less in the first half of their last game. Doing so has produced a 42-15 mark the last five seasons.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Rockets -3.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Portland. The Trail Blazers are playing their third road game in three days, and this stretch started with a triple-overtime contest. Houston, which has been at home and has had a day of rest in between each of its last two games, will be the fresher side. It will also be the hungrier side. Not only will the Rockets be out to end a two-game skid, they'll be out for revenge for last season's playoff loss to Portland. The Rockets are 20-8 ATS at against teams with winning percentages above 70% under McHale. The Trail Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Florida Atlantic +5

The Key: This is a letdown situation for Eastern Kentucky following a huge 72-44 upset blowout win over Miami. Fading road favorites or pickems off a road win of 10 points or more has produced a 25-7 ATS mark the last five seasons if they carry a win percentage of .600 to .800 and are playing a team with a win percentage of .510 to .600. The Colonels are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. FAU is 9-2 ATS the last two seasons versus teams win a win percentage of .600 to .800. Take the points.

6* Miami Beach Bowl "Total" Annihilator on Memphis/BYU Under 56.5

The Key: Seven games or more into the season, you want to play the "under" in a non-conference matchup between good teams that outgain the opposition by 0.6 to 1.2 yards per play. Doing so has produced a 28-10 (74%) mark the last five seasons. You also want to play the "under" in non-conference matchups between a good running team like BYU that averages 190-230 ypg on the ground when they are matched up against a team with a good run defense (allows 100-140 ypg rushing). Doing so has produced a 52-22 (70%) mark the last five seasons. Take the under.

6* NBA Annihilator on Kings -7

The Key: Motivated by five consecutive defeats and out for revenge for a three-point setback in L.A. Dec. 9, the Kings will be hungry. Recent history suggests this is great spot to back the Kings as well as a great spot to fade the Lakers. Consider that Sacramento is 10-1 ATS the last three seasons following five or more consecutive defeats. In addition, the Lakers are 3-12 ATS the last two seasons after covering the number in three of their last four games. Lay the points.

7* NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Raiders +6

The Key: I expect a major letdown from Buffalo as it makes the long cross-country trip following a huge win over the Packers. It's been a struggle for the Bills on the West Coast, going 0-3 ATS in their last three visits to the Raiders. It's been a struggle all-around for Buffalo in this series as it is 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings. You want to fade favorites that have a winning record when they are off an upset win at home as doing so has produced a 24-5 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 4.0 points but have lost outright by an average of 2.0 points. Take the points.

6* Sunday NFL Blowout on Dolphins -6.5

The Key: Minnesota has been a covering machine with against the spread wins in seven of its last eight, including four straight. With odds makers handing the Vikings this many points, it's clear they want the money on the Purple and Gold. I'm not taking the bait. While Minnesota has played well against a couple good teams (Green Bay and Detroit) during its covering streak, those teams weren't giving the Vikings their complete focus because they had already handled them in the first meeting. Plus, the Vikes have played a lot of weak competition during the second half of the season (Buccaneers, Redskins, Bears, Panthers, Jets). Off back-to-back blowout losses to Baltimore and New England, the Dolphins will be highly motivated and will be looking to take their frustrations out on Minnesota. Miami has double-digit home wins over New England, San Diego and Buffalo this season. The Vikings are just 1-5 in their last six road games. You want to back teams like Miami that have forced one turnover or none in five consecutive games when they are playing a team that had a -2 turnover margin or worse last game. Doing so has produced a 40-15 ATS mark since 1983. Lay the points.

6* NFC North *CA$H COW* on Bears +7

The Key: It's been a miserable season for the Chicago Bears, but I expect a strong performance from them in their final home game of the season versus a division rival. We are getting a good number here considering Chicago has won or lost by fewer than seven points in 10 of the last 13 meetings. Detroit is coming off an emotional win over the Vikings, and it could be peeking ahead to next week's matchup with Green Bay. The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games and 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 road games versus a team with a losing home record. You want to back December home underdogs or pickems that are off two or more consecutive spread losses. Doing so has produced a 96-57 ATS mark since 1983.

*Note: Bears still a play without Cutler starting.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Quinnipiac -1.5

The Key: This is a terrible spot for Oregon State. The Beavers just annihilated DePaul, and they have a lengthy eight-day break following this game so complete focus won't be there. To make matters worse, Oregon State has played only three games away from its home floor this season (just one true road game) and hasn't been further east than Las Vegas. Now, it's being asked to make the long cross-country trip with just two days of prep time. Oregon State won by eights points when it hosted Quinnipiac last December, which is all the more reason it will be overlooking the Bobcats, who will be jacked for this rematch. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Oregon State is on a 19-35 ATS slide following a stretch of five or six covers in a seven-game span.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Bucks/Clippers Under 211.5

The Key: Milwaukee combined with Sacramento for 215 points in its last game. The Clippers combined with Denver for 215 points in their last game. And, the Bucks and Clippers combined for 217 points when they met Dec. 13. With a number set well below these point totals, it appears odds makers are begging for action on the under. We won't bite. The LA's defense wasn't very good last night. It allowed Denver to shoot 47.5% for the game and make 11 three-point attempts. That poor defensive effort will remind the Clippers of an even worse defensive performance they had recently against the Bucks. They lost in Milwaukee while allowing the Bucks to shoot 56.6% from the field and 63.6% from three-point range. I expect a much better defensive effort tonight in a bounce-back, revenge spot. When the total is 200 or higher, you want to play the "under" on teams like Milwaukee that have covered the spread in four or five of their last six games and are playing a fourth road game in seven days. Doing so has produced a 55-25 (69%) mark the last five seasons. The Bucks are also on a 28-13 "unders" run in road games when the total is 210 or higher. Take the under.

7* NFL Total of the Month on Chargers/49ers Over 41.5

The Key: When the total is between 35.5 and 42.0 points, you want to play the OVER on home teams that allowed three points or less in the first half of their last game when they are matched up against an opponent that has scored 14 points or less in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 57-24 mark since 1983, including a 3-0 record the last three seasons. In addition, when the line is 35.5 to 42.0 points, you want to play the OVER on any team (San Diego) that has gained 75 rushing yards or less in three straight games. Doing so has produced a 25-8 mark the last 10 seasons. Take the over.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on SIU-Edwardsville +1

The Key: This is a bad spot for Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The Panthers have a big showdown at Arkansas Monday and will have a tough time focusing on the task at hand as a result. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 1-4 in games played away from home this season, including 0-3 in true road games. SIU-Edwardsville will be hungry as it tries to snap a seven game losing streak. It will also be excited to step back on its home floor, where it has performed just once in its last six games. The Cougars return four starters from a squad that went 9-5 at home last season. The Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Take SIU-Edwardsville.

7* Potato Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -110

The Key: Western Michigan is the more complete team on both sides of the football. The Broncos match up very well with Air Force's one-dimensional offense. They ranked a respectable 37th nationally against the run this season, and having had a month to prepare, I like their chances or slowing down Air Force's ground game. Western Mich is balanced and explosive offensively, and that doesn't bode well for the Falcons, who are 0-6 ATS the last three seasons when playing away from home versus teams that average 31.0 ppg or more. They have lost these six games by an average score of 40.0 to 16.3. Air Force's best shot is too force turnovers, which is something it hasn't done very well this season. The Falcons are 0-9 ATS the last three seasons away from home after two consecutive games of forcing one turnover or none. The Broncos had cover the spread in 10 straight games before losing to Northern Illinois Nov. 28. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Take Western Mich.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on UTEP +6

The Key: This is a tough spot for Arizona, which is playing its third game in seven days and its first true road game of the season. The Wildcats are on a 1-8 ATS slide in road games when playing a third game in a week. UTEP has never lost as a home underdog or pickem under coach Tim Floyd, going a perfect 7-0 ATS in the role while winning by an average score of 72.4 to 67.6. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +8

The Key: The Pistons hold major motivational edges in this game. They will be highly motivated tonight as they try to snap an ugly 11-game losing streak at home. They'll also be fueled by a three-game losing streak to the Raptors. Toronto will have a tough time getting up for the lowly Pistons on the road. We saw this in its most recent road game when it defeated the Knicks by only five points. Toronto is off a 105-89 win over Brooklyn but is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win of more than 10 points. In addition, fading Friday night favorites off a home win over a division rival has resulted in a 52-20 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* Thursday Night Football "Total" Annihilator on Titans/Jaguars Over 40.5

The Key: When the total is 35.5 to 42.0 points, playing the OVER on road teams that are off two or more consecutive unders and are getting outscored by an average of 10.0 ppg or more on the season has produced a 53-23 mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 the last three seasons. In addition, Tennessee is 9-1 OVER the last three seasons after being held to 17 points or less in two straight games. Take the over.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Western Carolina +2.5

The Key: Western Carolina is a much better team than its 3-7 record might lead you to believe. The Catamounts have suffered from playing just one home game so far so they'll be extremely excited to get back on their home floor tonight. This team has performed exceptionally at home where they went 11-2 last season. They are also the more battle tested team because of their challenging early season schedule, and I believe they'll perform better down the stretch as a result. Wright State is 3-2 in true road games, but the Catamounts are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus teams with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that Wright State is 1-9 ATS the last two seasons in road games that follow two consecutive non-conference contests. The Raiders have lost by an average score of 72.1 to 68.8 in this spot. Take the points for insurance, but I like Western Carolina outright tonight.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +1.5

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats, including a 108-96 loss in Houston Dec. 13, the Nuggets will bounce back strong at home where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven. The Nuggets are 45-22-1 ATS in their last 68 home games versus teams with a winning road record and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Home court has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 10.2 points. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four visits to the Mile High City. Take Denver.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on NC State -4.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Tennessee as it plays its first true road game of the season against a highly motivated NC State squad and just two days removed from a big win over Butler. I expect maximum effort and focus from the Wolfpack following a bad loss to Wofford. NC State returns three starters from a team that won by seven at Tennessee last season. The Vols bring back just one starter from that team. The Wolfpack are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games and 6-0 ATS in their last six games after forcing eight turnovers or less in their previous game. The Volunteers are 1-5-1 ATS this season. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Kings +7.5

The Key: The Thunder have been rolling since the return of Durant and Westbrook, but this is a tough situation for them. They are playing their fourth game in six and have a big one at Golden State on deck. The Kings have had the last two days off so they will be the fresher side. I also expect maximum effort in the wake of Michael Malone's firing. Fading favorites off two straight double digits wins in a matchup of teams with +/- 3.0 ppg differentials has resulted in a 37-11 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Tennessee State +15

The Key: Tennessee State is in a good spot. The Tigers have had nine days to prepare for a team they've already seen this season. They lost the first meeting by 17 points but are on a 27-10 ATS run in road games when seeking revenge for a same-season loss. Southern Illinois just played Sunday and will have a strong tendency to look right past the Tigers because it handled them in the first go-around. Tennessee State is 12-4 ATS in all lined road games the last two seasons, including 6-0 ATS during this span following three consecutive games as an underdog. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in road games after three or more consecutive losses. Take the points.

6* NFL Total of the Week on Saints/Bears Under 54

The Key: You want to play the UNDER on teams off an upset loss (New Orleans) in a second half of the season matchup between teams with win percentages of 25% to 40%. Doing so has produced a 40-15 (73%) mark since 1983. In addition, you want to play the UNDER on road teams in the second half of the season when the total is 49.5 or higher if they've gone over the number by 21 points or more total in their last three games. Doing so has produced a 43-16 (73%) mark since 1983. The Saints are 6-0 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 375.0 ypg or more under coach Sean Payton. Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Pacers -6

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Lakers, who are playing their second road game in as many days and third in four days. Indiana has been at home and had Sunday off so it should be the fresher side. The Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest. The Pacers should also be the hungrier side as they try to snap an eight-game slide. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 Monday games. The Pacers are 5-0 in the last five meetings, winning them by an average of 8.4 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +6.5

The Key: OKC is being overvalued at home following a five-game win streak that has coincided with the return of its two stars. The Suns have given the Thunder problems, winning the last two meetings. The Suns are in the midst of a four-game slide but none of the losses have come by more than six points. Phoenix is on a 24-11 ATS run as a road underdog and is 9-1 ATS in road games following a loss of six points or less the last two seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAB National TV Annihilator (ESPNU) on Tennessee +1

The Key: Tennessee has been an awesome investment at home in games odds makers expect to be close, going 27-13 ATS in home games when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. The Volunteers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games while the Bulldogs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Tennessee was able to get the "W" at home versus K-State last time out but did not cover. That sets up a strong trend this afternoon as teams headed up by coach Tyndall are 15-3 ATS off a home win in a game they didn't cover.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Chiefs -10

The Key: What happened after Oakland upset Kansas City Nov. 20? It was destroyed 52-0 in St. Louis the following week. After last Sunday's upset win over San Francisco, I expect another collapse from the Raiders. Oakland is 0-6 ATS the last three seasons following an upset win and has lost these six by an average of 23.8 points. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset win at home and are up against an opponent off a road loss as doing so has produced a 72-33 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Kansas City will be out for revenge here. You want to back favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are seeking revenge and are off an upset loss as a favorite. Doing so has produced an 81-38 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last three seasons. Lay the points.

6* Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Bills +5.5

The Key: Green Bay is being overvalued on the road where it has just one win of more than three points this season. The Bills are coming off a loss in Denver but are 12-1 ATS off a road loss the last three seasons, winning these games by an average score of 26.5 to 17.8. The home team has had the edge in this series, winning each of the past six meetings by nine points or more. Take the points.

6* AFC East Annihilator on Dolphins +8

The Key: New England is being overvalued here because it is a public team. The Dolphins have won the last two meetings, and I expect them to give the Patriots a game here. The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home and 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Miami is 6-0 ATS eight games or more into the season the last two seasons versus teams that average 260.0 passing yards per game or more, defeating these teams by an average score of 28.8 to 20.5. This trend speaks to how well the Dolphins have defended the pass. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that have gained 99 rushing yards or fewer in each of their last three games when they're up against a team that was outrushed by 100 yards or more last game. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take the points.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Nebraska -4.5

The Key: This is a difficult spot for Cincinnati. The Bearcats are playing their first true road game of the season and it comes after a long 10-day layoff. Cincy is 0-6 ATS when playing on seven days of rest or more under coach Cronin. Nebraska let in-state rival Creighton beat it twice as it did not show up following its disappointing loss to the Blue Jays and went down on its home floor to Incarnate Word. As if that ugly loss isn't enough motivation, the Cornhuskers will also be fueled by last season's 74-59 loss at Cincinnati. Cincy has done a poor job of forcing turnovers this season and is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons after four straight games of forcing  14 or less turnovers. Nebraska is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pickem over the last two seasons, winning these games by an average score of 72.0 to 59.9. Lay the points.

6* NCAAF "Total" Annihilator on Army/Navy Under 56

The Key: I think odds makers have set the bar too high. Army has finished at or over this number in each of its last three games. Navy has finished above this number in each of its last five games. However, we tend to see much lower scoring games when these two rivals meet. The UNDER is 8-0 in the eight meetings with 48 total points or fewer scored in each. Besides this being a rivalry game, both teams getting extra time to prepare has been a big reason for all the unders. Navy is 8-0 UNDER as a neutral field favorite under coach Niumatalo. The Midshipmen are 7-0 UNDER the last three seasons versus teams with a win percentage of 25% to 40% and 6-0 UNDER the last three seasons when checking in off a road win. Army is 7-0 UNDER the last three season against teams with a winning record.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Pistons/Suns Over 203

The Key: When these teams met in Detroit last month, we saw just 174 total points scored, but they combined for only 33 points from beyond the arc and only 23 points from the free throw line. Keep in mind these teams average 54 points combined per game on three-pointers and 33 points on free throws. In other words, they are averaging 31 more points per game in these areas than we saw in the first meeting. Add those 31 points to the total score of the first meeting, and we get 205. So we are getting a good number here. Plus, we can also take into consideration that neither team is defending well. The Pistons have allowed 103.6 points over their last eight games, and the Suns are allowing 106.7 points over their last nine games. Phoenix is 8-1 over this season versus teams that give up 99.0 ppg or more, and we have seen an average of 219.9 total points scored in these contests. The Suns are 9-1 over the last two season when playing against teams with a win percentage of 25% or worse, and we have seen 213.2 total points scored in these games. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Rockets/Kings Over 196

The Key: We saw just 191 total points scored when these teams met in Houston last month. The Kings went to DeMarcus Cousins in the post a lot in that game, but they'll be looking to run more without him in the lineup. The Rockets just played last night, and the Kings are playing for the third time in four days. Neither team has fresh legs, and defense is the first thing to go when that's the case. Houston is 18-4 over off a road loss over the last two seasons, and we have seen an average of 212.7 total points scored in these contests. Also, the over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento.

6* Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Rams -4

The Key: The Cardinals aren't the same team without Carson Palmer under center. They have been outgained by an average of 94.7 yards over their last three games, and the ineptitude of the offense is starting to affect the defense. The Rams enter this matchup full of confidence. They've won two straight, three of four and five of eight with quality wins over Seattle and Denver during this stretch. St. Louis will be hungry here as it looks to avenge last month's blowout loss in Arizona. The Cardinals have lost their last two on the road to Seattle and Atlanta by double digits while the Rams have won their last three at home against Seattle, Denver and Oakland. The Rams have also won their last two home games against the Cardinals. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset win at home and matched up against a conference opponent. Doing so has produced a 46-18 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Illinois -112

The Key: Western Illinois is 2-5 but has played just three home games and has been competitive in all three, winning two. The Leathernecks are home following back-to-back losses on the road and will be highly motivated to get back in the win column. They'll draw added motivated from last season's 67-63 loss at Idaho. Western Illinois was the better team in that matchup but it shot just 2 of 11 from three-point range and 17 of 28 from the foul line. I expect much better shooting from the Leathernecks here as they are averaging seven three-point makes per game on the season. The Vandals have won their last two with their last win coming at home over Cal Davis, but they are 17-28 ATS off a home win under coach Don Verlin. Recently, they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a cover. Take Western Illinois.

6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Pacers +7

The Key: The Pacers are extremely disappointed with how they performed last game. They returned home following an 0-4 road trip looking to get back on track but were hit in the mouth by Atlanta instead. I expect an inspired performance in the wake of that loss. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on one day of rest. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four versus Central division opponents. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Hornets -2.5

The Key: This is a superior spot for Charlotte, which has had the last four days off to get healthy and to get prepared for this matchup. Boston is playing its third game in four days with the last one going to double overtime. The Hornets will have the fresher legs. Boston has been playing uptempo basketball, trying to outscore its opponents, but Charlotte has done an excellent job controlling the tempo against such teams and is on a 27-14 ATS run versus up-tempo teams that average 83 shots per game or more. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB National TV Annihilator (FOXS1) on Georgetown -2.5

The Key: Georgetown will be out for revenge for last season's 22-point loss at Kansas. The Hoyas are a different team at home, and that's why we see them favored over the 10th-ranked team in the country. The Hoyas are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games while the Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Hoyas are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the Big 12 while the Jayhawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus the Big East. Kansas checks in off a nice win over Florida but is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a win. The Hoyas are off a blowout of Towson State and are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a win of more than 20 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Lakers -2.5

The Key: Motivated by three consecutive blowout losses, the Lakers should take care of business against a Sacramento team that hasn't been the same since the loss of DeMarcus Cousins. The Lakers should also benefit from fresher legs. Sacramento played last night while L.A. had the night off. The Lakers have had plenty of success against the Kings and are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings overall and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings at home. Lay the points.

6* NCAAB Situational Slam Dunk on South Dakota +16.5

The Key: This is a letdown spot for Creighton following Sunday's big win over in-state rival Nebraska. Plus, it has had just one day to prepare for this contest while South Dakota has had three. You want to fade home favorites or pickems off an upset win on the road if they have a win percentage of .600 to .800 and are playing a team with a win percentage of .200 to .400. Doing so has produced a 45-18 ATS mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the Coyotes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Heat +5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Phoenix, which will be playing a second game in as many nights and a fourth in five days. To make matters worse, last night's game with the Clippers went to overtime so I don't see the Suns having enough left in the tank to cover this number. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing without a day of rest and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Heat are 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in Phoenix. Take the points.

6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Suns +7.5

The Key: This line is inflated due to LA's run of five consecutive covers. Consider that the Clippers are just 22-43 ATS since 1996 after covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. The Clippers are also 0-5 ATS in their last five home games versus teams with a winning road record. The Suns are coming off a loss in Houston but are an impressive 29-11-1 ATS in their last 41 games following an ATS loss. That game, however, was Phoenix's second in as many days. While playing three games in four days is no picnic, the Suns have thrived in such spots under Hornacek, going 22-10 ATS and winning by an average score of 105.7 to 101.9. They are also 44-20-1 ATS in their last 65 games when playing on one day of rest. The Suns are 31-16 ATS as a dog under Hornacek and 23-11 ATS as a road underdog under their current coach. You want to take road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more that trailed by 15 points or more at halftime of the previous game. Doing so has produced an 81-36 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Packers -13

The Key: This may seem like a lot of points, but the Packers are 6-0 this season at Lambeau and have won these games by an average score of 40.8 to 17.7. They have a significant edge tonight because this week be Atlanta's first cold weather game in a very long time. The Falcons upset Arizona last week, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win and 3-13 ATS since 1992 following an upset victory at home. The grass has been good to Aaron Rodgers are company as they are 7-0 ATS on grass this season, winning these games by an average score of 38.8 to 18.4. The Packers are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in home games following a stretch of six or seven wins in an eight-game span. They have won these six by an average score of 34.7 to 15.3. It's also worth noting that Green Bay is 11-3 ATS when laying 10.5 to 14.0 points at home under coach McCarthy and has won these contests by an average score of 35.2 to 12.2. Lay the points.

6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Chargers +4

The Key: New England hasn't fared well on grass. We saw it again last Sunday in Green Bay. The Patriots are now 0-9 ATS in their last nine games on grass and have lost the last seven of these by an average of 8.6 points. New England has also been susceptible on the road where it is 3-3. The Chargers are 5-1 at home with the lone loss coming by just three points to the Chiefs. Home field has been big in this series as well. The home team has won or lost by fewer than four points in nine of the last 10, including five straight. The Chargers have won or lost by fewer than four points each of the last four times they've hosted the Patriots. Take the points.

6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on Nevada +6

The Key: This is Nevada's first home game since Nov. 17, and it will be jacked up as a result. Not only will it be out to end a five-game losing streak, but it will also be out for revenge for last season's eight-point loss at Cal. You want to fade favorites like Cal that have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games if they have a win percentage of 80% or higher and are playing a team with a win percentage of 20% to 40%. Doing so has produced a 44-17 (72%) ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +5.5

The Key: Atlanta is 12-6 but wouldn't be if it played in the much stronger Western Conference. The Hawks are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 versus the West and 0-6 ATS in their last six versus the NBA Northwest division. The Nuggets are off a bad loss at Washington where they couldn't throw it in the ocean, but the performance was an outlier because they had been played exceptional in their previous nine games. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one day of rest. You want to back road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more that trailed in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half. Doing so has produced an 81-35 ATS mark since 1996. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is just 11-23 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that average 103.0 ppg or more.

7* NFC Non-division Game of the Year on Redskins +2.5

The Key: After a strong showing in San Francisco, the Redskins were smacked in Indianapolis last week. That result bodes well for us here considering December home underdogs or pickems off a road loss of 14 points or more are 78-42 (65%) ATS since 1983. The Rams are just 2-4 on the road where they are averaging only 17.5 points and allowing 25.5 points. Pass defense has been the weakness of the St. Louis defense, and it will be tested by a Washington passing attack that ranks 10th in the NFL with 260.5 yards per game on 7.6 yards per attempt. This is significant because the Rams are on a 1-10 ATS slide in road games versus teams that average 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They have lost these games by an average of 22.0 points. St. Louis is one of the weakest offensive teams in the league. It has benefited from turnovers. However, the Redskins have a plus-three turnover margin in the games McCoy has played. Take Washington.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Browns +4

The Key: The Colts rolled over Washington last week while the Browns laid an egg in Buffalo. However, you want to fade road teams off a win of 21 points or more when they are up against an opponent that was held to three points or less in the first half of their last game. Doing so has produced a 38-12 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a loss, 4-0 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record and 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 14 points. While the Johnny Football talk is heating up, I'm happy to have Brian Hoyer here. The Browns are 8-4 ATS with him under center at home and 9-4 ATS as an underdog. They are 9-1 ATS with Hoyer under center versus teams like the Colts that give up 20.6-26.6 points per game. Take the points.

7* NCAAF Total of the Year on Ohio State/Wisconsin Under 52.5

The Key: Ohio State has finished over the total in 10 of its last 11 games. Wisconsin has finished over the number in five of its last seven. As a result, we are getting a great number. The Ohio State offense struggled in its first game without Braxton Miller, and I expect to see similar offensive struggles in Cardale Jones' first extensive action. Wisconsin is one of the best defensive teams in the entire nation, ranking 2nd in total defense (260.3 ypg) and 4th in scoring defense (16.9 ppg). Urban Meyer knows he must take a conservative approach to give his team the best opportunity to win against the stout Wisconsin defense. Ohio State also boasts an elite defense, one that ranks 19th in total "D" (333.5 ypg) and 29th in scoring "D" (22.9 ppg). Ohio State will be able to sell out on the run because it has athletes in the secondary who can more than hold their own. With both teams very likely to stick to their ground attacks, the clock will keep moving. The under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. It is also 6-2 in the Buckeyes' last eight neutral site games. Take the under.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Pistons -9

The Key: The Pistons have been a major disappointment thus far, but this is a fantastic spot for them. Not only will Detroit be motivated by a 10-game slide, but it will also be fueled by an embarrassing 25-point loss the last time it faced the 76ers. The Pistons have had two days to regroup and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest. The 76ers have covered the spread in six of their last seven and are starting to lose value as a result. This is the second game of a back-to-back for them, a spot that hasn't treated the well. They are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 17-32 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lay the number.

6* NCAAF Saturday Night *CA$H COW* on Temple -3

The Key: Not only is Temple the better team, it will also be the more motivated side. It can reach bowl eligibility with a win, and that's all the motivation it will need here. Temple has been let down by its offense, but it shouldn't need many points to take care of business in this one. Tulane ranks 119th in the nation in scoring offense with 17.2 ppg, and it should have trouble getting much of anything against a stout Temple stop unit that ranks 11th in the nation in scoring defense with 18.8 ppg allowed. You want to back road favorites that held their last opponent to 14 points or less if they are up against a team that has allowed 31 points or more in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 49-19 ATS mark the last five seasons. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Wisconsin Green Bay +10.5

The Key: Miami is 8-0 and high on the horse following a big win over Illinois and is susceptible here as a result. I expect the Hurricanes to get caught looking right past a Wisconsin Green Bay squad that was kicked by Georgia State Thursday. That was just one of those rare games where the Phoenix couldn't throw it in the ocean. They shot just 28.8% from the field after shooting 50% or better in three of their previous four games. The Phoenix are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 4-0 ATS in their last four games after being held to less than 50 points in their previous game. Brian Wardle is one of the best coaches you don't know much about. Playing a second game in three days might seem like a tough situation, but Wardle's ability to prepare and motivate has allowed the Phoenix to thrive in such situations. In fact, his Wis-GB teams are 27-7 ATS all-time when playing a second game in three days and have won these games by an average score of 69.4 to 65.7. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Early Annihilator on Houston +7

The Key: Cincinnati is being overvalued at home because it enters on a 6-0 SU and ATS streak. I'll gladly take the points with a Houston team that is 10-0 ATS in its last road games. The Cougars lost by more than seven points just once during this stretch (an 8-point loss at BYU) so we are getting a very favorable number. Houston is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that average 34.0 ppg or more under coach Levine, winning these games by an average score of 30.0 to 22.5. Take the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Timberwolves +7

The Key: Off a big win over Memphis and with a matchup against Phoenix tomorrow night, Houston won't give Minnesota its full attention. The Rockets have a 12-point win over Minnesota this season in Mexico City so it will be easy for them to look right past the Timberwolves here. I expect the T-Wolves to be extremely motivated after losing to the then 0-17 76ers. That's the type of embarrassing loss that gets a teams attention. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. Also, you want to fade Friday night favorites that are off a home win against a division rival as doing so has produced a 50-20 (71%) ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Bowling Green +7

The Key: Bowling Green is a better team than it has showed in its last two games. It already had the MAC East sewed up and motivation was clearly an issue. Those losses bode well for us here as they have contributed to us catching a good number. Remember that Bowling Green clocked Northern Illinois 47-27 in last season's MAC title game. While the Huskies will be out for revenge, and may get it, they aren't seven points better than this Bowling Green squad. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. They are 8-1 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home in the second half of the season. They are also on a 13-4 ATS run in games played away from home following an upset loss in conference play. The Huskies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four neutral site games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight December contests. In conference matchups, you want to back underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off an upset loss of 10 points or more to a conference opponent. Doing so has produced a 49-21 ATS mark since 1992. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.6 points on average but have lost by only 3.1 points on average. Take the points.

6* NCAAB Annihilator on SMU -4.5

The Key: We are getting a good number with SMU at home because it has yet to cover a spread this season. The Mustangs defeated Wyoming by eight points on the road last season, and I'm expecting them to take care of business by at least that many here. SMU has come up short against each of the first three quality opponents its faced so it will be going after this one with all its got. First road games are often times shaky. Wyoming has yet to set food outside of its own gym for a game this season, and that makes this an even tougher spot for the Cowboys. Plus, the Mustangs are more battle tested. The Cowboys have played just one high-caliber opponent (Colorado). We have some nice history on our side as Wyoming is 38-60 ATS since 1997 when it heads out on the road following a home win. It is 10-23 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive home wins since 1997 and has lost by an average score of 76.4 to 67.0 in this situation. Lay the points.

6* NFL Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Bears +4

The Key: Dallas hasn't shown me that it deserves to be laying more than a field goal in Chicago. It is 4-0 in true road games this season but has won by just three points in two of its last three. And, it hasn't fared well against the Bears, who are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings. The Cowboys have been a terrible favorite under coach Garrett at 12-27 ATS in the role. With last Thursday's home blowout loss to Philadelphia, the Cowboys fell to 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games as well as 0-4 ATS in their last four versus NFC foes. In addition, Dallas is 0-7 ATS in the second half of the season the last three seasons versus teams that give up 6.0 yards per play or more and has lost to these teams by an average score of 33.3 to 28.4. Take the points.

6* NBA National TV Annihilator on Knicks +7.5

The Key: The Cavs haven't played on the road since Nov. 21, and they are just 3-3 in their previous six road games with just one of the wins coming by more than this number. The Knicks won the first meeting, spoiling LeBron James' homecoming. While Cleveland will be out for revenge, that angle has been figured into this number, overfigured. The Knicks will be highly motivated too as they try to end a five-game skid. The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record while the Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Take the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Missouri State -6.5

The Key: The Bears haven't played at home since Nov. 19 so they will be excited to get back in front of their fans. They've lost three of four since a 2-0 start at home and will be looking for a dominant performance tonight. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games following three or more consecutive games away from home and 12-3 ATS the last three seasons following a stretch of three losses in four games. Arkansas-LR is 4-1 but has benefited from a soft schedule. Now it finds itself in the road underdog role, which hasn't been kind. The Trojans are 49-70 ATS as a road dog or pickem under coach Shields, including 10-23 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12.0 points. Lay the number.

6* Thursday NCAAF National TV Annihilator on East Carolina -6.5

The Key: You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that check in off back-to-back conference victories when they are matched up against an opponent that's off a double-digit win on the road. Doing so has produced a 45-13 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average and have lost by an average of 15.4 points. UCF has struggled when it hasn't been able to run the football. We've seen that in each of its losses. The Knights average only 3.1 rushing yards per game and don't figure to get anything easy against an ECU defense that has held opponents to 3.2 yards per carry on the season. In a conference matchup, you want to fade teams that average just 3.0 to 3.5 yards per carry when they are up against a team that holds its opponents to 3.0 to 3.5 yards per carry. Doing so has produced a 52-12 ATS mark the last five seasons. Lay the points.

7* NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tulsa -1

The Key: Creighton is off to a nice 6-1 start, but it will miss the presence of Doug McDermott in its first true road game of the season. Not only will Tulsa be motivated by back-to-back losses, it will also be fueled by last season's 10-point loss at Creighton. The Golden Hurricane have been outstanding at home, where they are 6-0 in their last six and 13-1 in their last 14. The Blue Jays have really been living with the three-point shot in the early going. In fact, 44% of their shot attempts are coming from beyond the arc. That bodes well for us because Tulsa has given high-volume three-point shooting teams fits. It is 12-2 ATS versus teams that attempt 21 three-point shots per game or more over the last three seasons and has defeated these teams by an average score of 65.9 to 61.5. Take Tulsa.