6* Southern Miss/WKU C-USA Championship *CA$H COW* on Southern Miss +7.5

The Key: Southern Miss has won six straight coming into this game with all six wins coming by 21 points or more.  They just keep getting better as the season goes on, and they just upset Louisiana Tech 58-24 as 5-point underdogs in their last game, covering the spread by 39 points.  The betting public has not caught on to this team yet, which is why they are once again showing great value as 7.5-point dogs.  WKU only beat LA Tech 41-38 at home earlier this season.  Common opponents show that Southern Miss is clearly the better team.  They are more balanced on offense, and they have the better defense.  The Golden Eagles have outgained each of their last eight opponents by at least 150 yards.  They are 10-2 ATS in all games this season, and 8-0 ATS off one or more straight overs the last two years.  Take Southern Miss.

6* Northern Illinois/Bowling Green ESPN 2 National TV Annihilator on Bowling Green -13

The Key: Northern Illinois freshman QB Tommy Fiedler was a 5th-string QB coming into the year.  But injuries to the other four quarterbacks ahead of him have forced him into action in the MAC Championship Game.  Needless to say, I don't expect it to work out very well for the Huskies tonight.  Bowling Green wants revenge from a 51-17 loss to NIU in the MAC Championship last year.  The Falcons have the team to get it as they've been the best team in the MAC this season.  They boast a high-powered offense that is putting up 47.0 points, 553.1 yards per game and 7.0 per play in MAC action, and an underrated defense that is allowing 21.9 points, 394.1 yards per game and 5.0 per play within the MAC.  The Falcons are 8-0 ATS off a win by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Falcons are 8-0 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game this season.  The Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Take this combined 23-0 angle backing the Falcons straight to the bank tonight.  Take Bowling Green.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Missouri -3.5

The Key: Northern Illinois is getting way too much respect from the books tonight due to its 7-0 start.  It couldn't have played an easier schedule as it has played six games at home against CS-Northridge, South Dakota, Wright State, Eureka, Indiana-Northwest and Chicago State.  It has only played one road game, which came at Idaho in a 7-point win.  Now the Huskies will face their toughest test of the season on the road against a team from the SEC in the Missouri Tigers.  Missouri is 3-3, but its three losses have come to Xavier, Kansas State and Northwestern all on the road.  The Tigers hung with both Xavier and Northwestern, which are two very good teams this year.  Missouri is 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game.  It is shooting 49.4% at home and allowing just 38.3% at home.  The Tigers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  Take Missouri.

7* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks -2.5

The Key: The New York Knicks are 9-10 this season and things are looking up in the Big Apple for the first time in a long time.  Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets are 5-13 this season and clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA.  Last year, the Nets beat the Knicks 4-0 in the season series, but that was an awful Knicks team.  Plus, the last three games were all decided by 5 points or less.  The Knicks will want revenge from that season sweep.  The Nets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point dogs.  They have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, but most of those came as big underdogs.  This line has now been over-adjusted because the Nets have actually won two straight games for the first time this season coming in.  But that works against them considering the Nets are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games following 2 or more consecutive wins.  Take New York.

6* Spurs/Grizzlies TNT National TV Annihilator on Memphis +3.5

The Key: This is an awful spot for the aging San Antonio Spurs.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  Don't be surprised if Greg Popovich rests some of his aging players in this one.  Either way, I like this spot for the Grizzlies, who had Wednesday off and will be the fresher team.  I also like the way the Grizzlies are playing right now.  They have won eight of their last 10 games overall.  One of the two losses came 82-92 at San Antonio on November 21, so they'll also be out for revenge from that loss two weeks later.  Memphis is 70-42 ATS in its last 112 vs. good defensive teams that allow 91 or fewer points per game.  The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference opponents.  San Antonio is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 Thursday games.  Take Memphis.

7* Packers/Lions NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3

The Key: There's no way the Green Bay Packers are going to get swept by the Detroit Lions.  They shouldn't have lost their first meeting when they were beaten 16-18 at home by the Lions despite outgaining them 372-287.  Their offense has been held in check in recent games, but now Aaron Rodgers and company get to go indoors inside Ford Field and should get untracked.  The Packers are playing well defensively, giving up 16 points and 306 yards per game in their last three.  The Lions have played well here of late, but that has only kept this line lower than it should be.  The Packers need to win the NFC North, and they're one game behind Minnesota, so it's time for them to put their best foot forward.  Detroit is 1-12 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  Take Green Bay.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on North Texas +16.5

The Key: Texas-Arlington could not be more overvalued than it is right now.  The betting public has seen it beat teams like Ohio State and Memphis, while also challenging Louisiana Tech and Texas.  Arlington is coming off a 73-80 (OT) loss to Texas on Tuesday, and now I expect it to suffer a hangover from that defeat.  That also makes this a quick turnaround for Arlington, which only has one day in between games to get ready for North Texas.  I had North Texas as 20-point dogs against Northern Iowa last time out.  That was an unfortunate loss as the Mean Green actually held a 2-point halftime lead over the Panthers before getting outscored by 25 points after intermission.  Look for them to stay within 16 points of this Arlington squad, which isn't as good at Northern Iowa.  Arlington is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games after winning 3 of its last 4.  Arlington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after an ATS win.  Take North Texas.

6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit +21.5

The Key: The betting public has been quick to back the Vanderbilt Commodores after their 5-1 start this season.  But their first five games couldn't have been any easier as they played Austin Peay, Gardner Webb, Stony Brook, St. John's and Wake Forest.  Keep in mind they only beat Stony Brook by 7 at home.  They are coming off their first loss of the season to No. 4 ranked Kansas 63-70.  I expect them to suffer a hangover from that defeat.  I also expect them to be looking ahead to another huge showdown at Baylor in their next game on December 6th.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Commodores.  Detroit is not a bad team as its two losses have come on the road to Pitt by 16 as 17.5-point dogs and Oral Roberts by 5 as 7-point dogs.  The Titans are an elite offensive team that is putting up 96.0 points per game on 49.5% shooting.  They have a whopping six players averaging 10 points or more, so they share the ball well and get everyone involved.  The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Detroit.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 192.5

The Key: These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  The 76ers rank last in offensive efficiency at 91.7 points per 100 possessions, while the Knicks are 23rd at 99.6 points per 100 possessions.  These teams are used to playing in ugly, low-scoring games when they meet.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with all five games seeing 192 or fewer combined points.  They have combined to average 183.6 points in those 5 meetings.  The UNDER is 25-12 in 76ers last 37 games on 0 days of rest.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Knicks last 8 home games.  The UNDER is 11-3-1 in Knicks last 15 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Charlotte Hornets +9.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are 19-0 this season.  The betting public has been backing them in stride too, and they've been rewarded with a 13-6 ATS record.  But the Warriors have now set some expectations for the betting public that they cannot live up to.  They are 9.5-point road favorites over the Hornets here when they shouldn't be.  After all, Charlotte is better than it gets credit for.  It is 10-7 on the season with five of its seven losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  The Hornets rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency.  The Hornets also check in on two days of rest, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in this situation.  They'll give the Warriors their best shot tonight, and that will be good enough to stay within 9.5 points.  Take Charlotte.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on North Dakota State +16

The Key: The North Dakota State Bison are coming off a 23-10 season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They returned four starters from last year's team and three key reserves, so they have almost everyone back.  They have opened 4-1 this season with their only loss coming by a final of 74-80 on the road to Illinois.  The Bison held a 14-point lead in the first half of that game before getting outscored 52-35 after intermission by the Illini.  Iowa State capped off an Emerald Coast Classic Tournament championship with an 84-73 win over Illinois.  But the Cyclones trailed 57-58 with 11 1/2 minutes remaining in that game.  I believe that common opponent gives a good indication that the Bison can hang with the Cyclones and stay within this 16-point spread.  Iowa State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off four straight games where it scored 80 points or more.  The Bison are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Dakota State.

7* Wizards/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +9

The Key: The Washington Wizards have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.  But with this slow start comes some line value that is tough to pass up.  After losing four straight coming in, and facing the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers, the Wizards won't be lacking any motivation tonight.  They have had two days off in between games to get ready for Cleveland, too.  Turnovers have been a problem for the Wizards, but the Cavs are 0-8 ATS against teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Washington is 44-23 ATS in its last 67 road games off a close loss by 3 point or less.  Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers +8

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers, who played the Timberwolves yesterday.  Not only will this be a 2nd of a back-to-back for the Clippers, it will also be their 5th game in 7 days and 8th game in 12 days.  They have nothing left in the tank for this game against the Blazers tonight.  Portland has not lost by more than 6 points to Los Angeles in any of the last 8 meetings in this series.  I think we're getting great value with the Blazers here given the rest situation.  Take Portland.

7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3

The Key:  The Ravens are an absolute mess right now.  They are without their three best offensive players in Joe Flacco, Steve Smith and Justin Forsett.  I give them little chance of staying competitive in this game against the Cleveland Browns as a result.  I also like that the Browns are coming off their bye week.  I like that the Browns have benched Johnny Manziel in favor of Josh McCown, who is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league.  McCown is completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,897 yards and an 11-4 TD/INT ratio this year.  He threw for a career-high 457 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-30 road win at Baltimore in their first meeting.  The Browns outgained the Ravens 505 to 377 in that game.  Another dominant performance can be expected from the Browns at home this time around.  The Ravens are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Cleveland.

6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on North Texas +20.5

The Key: North Texas hasn't covered a spread yet (0-3 ATS) this season and is undervalued as a result.  Northern Iowa is 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes an upset 71-67 home win over North Carolina.  It's clear to me that this line is way inflated given the starts these teams have had this season.  North Texas is 2-3 this year, but two losses have come by exactly two points.  Northern Iowa has just one win by more than 20 points during its 4-1 start.  The Panthers are a slow-it-down team, which makes it hard for them to cover big spreads like this one. The Mean Green are  scoring 86.2 points per game on 49.7% shooting, so their offense is fully capable of keeping them competitive in this game.  Northern Iowa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off a win by 30 points or more.  Take North Texas.

7* Pats/Broncos Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Denver +3

The Key: The Patriots are without their two best slot receivers in Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.  They're also without their most dangerous weapon out of the backfield in Dion Lewis.  This short-handed club is going to struggle against this elite Denver defense today.  The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks (34), fewest TD passes allowed (8) and fewest passing yards per game (190.6).  They held Aaron Rodgers to 77 passing yards at home.  Brock Osweiler is an upgrade over Peyton Manning right now.  He threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears last week.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Denver.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the most profitable road team to back this season.  They are 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in their eight road games this year, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game away from home.  I look for this trend to continue today as they are once again catching too many points against the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Timberwolves have won three in a row coming in, including a 101-91 road win at Sacramento on Friday.  The Clippers aren't playing well enough to be 9.5-point favorites here.  They are 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Timberwolves improve to 9-0 ATS on the road in 2015.  Take Minnesota.

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay Bucs +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are by far the superior team in this one with the Indianapolis Colts.  The Bucs rank 7th in yardage differential (+33.0/game) while the Colts rank 27th (-46.4 yards/game).  The Bucs are 8th in total offense (370.7 YPG) while the Colts are 18th in total offense (345.9 YPG).  The Bucs are 13th in total defense (339.1 YPG) while the Colts are 27th (392.3 YPG).  Add it all up, and believe it or not, the Bucs are the better team.  They are 4-1 ATS in road games this season with outright wins over the Falcons, Eagles and Saints, and a 1-point loss to Houston. They clearly love playing in domes with the way they beat the Falcons and Saints.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Bills/Chiefs AFC Annihilator on Kansas City -4

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They have outscored their opponents 130-39 in the process.  They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents as well.  The Chiefs have allowed 18 points or fewer in 6 straight, yielding just 12.2 PPG over that span.  The Bills are on a short week and should suffer a hangover from their loss to the Patriots last week.  QB Tyrod Taylor will play, but he's not going to be healthy with that shoulder injury suffered against New England.  The Chiefs are 11-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.  Take Kansas City.

6* NBA Western Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 197

The Key: The Utah Jazz are a slow-it-down team that plays some of the best defense in the NBA.  The Jazz rank 7th in defensive efficiency, allowing 99.2 points per 100 possessions.  They actually rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging 94.7 possessions per game.  They are 19th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  New Orleans is expected to be without leading scorer Anthony Davis, which is going to make life real difficult for them offensively.  Utah is 15-4 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Pelicans last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* Sun Belt Game of the Week on New Mexico State +17.5

The Key: The New Mexico State Aggies have quietly been a money-making machine down the stretch.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They beat Idaho 55-48 as 7-point home dogs before going on the road and beating Texas State 31-21 as 16.5-point dogs and LA-Lafayette 37-34 as 14.5-point dogs.  Now they're going to be even more motivated to go up against the first-place team in the Sun Belt in the Arkansas State Red Wolves.  The Red Wolves are going to think that they can just show up and win this one, but that mindset is going to keep the Aggies in the game for four quarters.  NMSU certainly has the offense to make this interesting as it has put up 641, 527 and 498 total yards in its last three games overall.  Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-86 ATS since 1992.  Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ARKANSAS ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 28-8 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New Mexico State.

6* GW/Cincinnati Barclays Center Classic *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati -5.5

The Key: Mick Cronin's Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 6-0 start behind their five returning starters.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating, outscoring teams by 31.4 points per game.  Because they had a close call against Nebraska yesterday, I believe this line is smaller than it should be against George Washington.  The Colonials are also 6-0, but they've had much closer games than Cincinnati as four of their six wins have come by single-digits.  George Washington is 0-6 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games off 4 straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Take Cincinnati.

7* NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina +19

The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with South Carolina right now after it lost 22-23 at home to The Citadel last week.  But the Gamecocks didn't show up for that game.  They were highly competitive in their previous four games under their interim coach, which is a lot more significant to me than The Citadel result.  They won 19-10 over Vanderbilt in their first game without Steve Spurrier.  They went on to lose 28-35 at Texas A&M as 14-point dogs, 24-27 at Tennessee as 17-point dogs, and 14-24 at home to Florida as 7.5-point dogs only after the Gators tacked on a late TD to put the game away.  If they can hang with those four teams, they can certainly keep it close against Clemson at home.  South Carolina players met amongst themselves to get some things off their chest leading up to this game.  Shawn Elliott believes he sees a determined look in his players' eyes leading into this game.  ''You can kind of look at an individual and tell if they've got it or not,'' he said. ''I think everyone got it.''  This is South Carolina's National Championship as it won't be going to a bowl game.  Clemson continues to be overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  It won by 10 of FSU (-12.5), by 10 over Syracuse (-30) and by 20 over Wake Forest (-29) as a big favorite in each game.  It is too big of a favorite once again this week.  Clemson is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Clemson is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 trips to South Carolina.  Take South Carolina.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia Tech -3

The Key: Frank Beamer has stated this will be his last season.  Virginia Tech needs a victory at rival Virginia on Saturday in the Commonwealth Cup to send Beamer into retirement with a 23rd consecutive bowl game appearance. The Hokies fought valiantly for him in a 27-30 (OT) loss to North Carolina last week, and the Tar Heels are one of the best teams in the country.  The task is much easier against the 4-7 Cavaliers this week.  VA Tech is 11-0 in its last 11 meetings with Virginia with all 11 victories coming by 3 points or more.  VA Tech has held Virginia to 21 or fewer points in all 11 games, including 14 or less in 9 of those.  The Hokies are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Mike London is 3-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Virginia.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* SDSU/WVU FS1 National TV Annihilator on West Virginia -2.5

The Key: West Virginia is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  It is 5-0 and has won all five games by 8 points or more, including four by 13 points or more.  Three of the five wins have come by 41 or more points as well.  San Diego State has already lost two games, including a 43-49 home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock as 16.5-point favorites.  I think we're getting great value here on the Mountaineers as only 2.5-point favorites in this Las Vegas Invitational Championship Game.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.  Take West Virginia.

6* Pelicans/Clippers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +6.5

The Key: The Pelicans have won three straight coming in thanks to finally getting healthy.  Anthony Davis has been a big reason why, scoring at least 20 points and grabbing at least 17 rebounds in all three games.  The Pelicans are averaging 115.3 points during this win streak.  Sixth man Ryan Anderson has averaged 26.6 points over his last five games.  Backup point guard Ish Smith is contributing 18.0 points and 9.5 assists per game over his last four.  The Clippers have lost 8 of their last 11 and should not be this heavily favored here.  That includes an 11-point home loss to Utah, an 11-point home loss to Toronto, and an 11-point road loss to Portland in three of their last four games overall.  Los Angeles is 20-34 ATS in its last 54 games as a home favorite, and 2-11 ATS in its last 13 November home games.  The Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Take New Orleans.

6* Oregon State/Oregon Civil War Rivalry Play on Oregon State +36

The Key: The Oregon Ducks made a valiant effort to try and win the Pac-12 North for a second consecutive season.  They won each of their last five games, which includes victories over both Stanford and USC in their last two games.  But they still needed Stanford to lose to Cal last week, and that didn't happen, which means Oregon will not be going to the Pac-12 Championship.  That is a huge emotional letdown for the Ducks right now, and one that is getting overlooked here with this massive 36-point spread.  Plus, records haven't really mattered in the Civil War as the Beavers have pulled off some huge upsets.  Obviously, the betting public wants nothing to do with Oregon State, which has gone 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  But with that poor ATS record comes some serious line value here as 36-point dogs.  The Beavers have only been dogs of more than 21 points once this season.  They were 26-point dogs at Utah and only lost 12-27.  Oregon State hasn't lost to Oregon by more than 28 points in any of the last 9 meetings.  It only lost 35-36 as 24-point dogs in its last trip to Eugene in 2013.  Take Oregon State.

6* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Nebraska +2.5

The Key: This is a tough scheduling spot for Iowa and a great one for Nebraska.  The Huskers had a bye last week and have had 12 days in between games as a result.  The Hawkeyes had to play Purdue last Saturday and have had only 5 days between games.  That extra rest of a big reason I'm taking Nebraska here.  But I also like the fact that a win get the Huskers to a bowl game, plus they are better than their 5-6 record.  Their six losses this season have come by an average of 3.8 points per game, so they've had brutal luck in close games all year.  They finally got some luck to go their way in a 39-38 upset win over Michigan State in their last home game, and they followed that up with a 31-14 win at Rutgers.  The Huskers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. teams who win more than 75% of their games and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  Mike Riley is 19-8 ATS off a bye week in all games he has coached.  Take Nebraska.

7* Western Michigan/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Toledo -8

The Key: Toledo is 9-1 and has a chance to cap the regular season with its best record in 15 years and play for the MAC Championship.  A win would put the Rockets in the MAC Championship for the first time since 2004.  They have this opportunity because Northern Illinois lost to Ohio on Tuesday.  Now I fully expect this re-energized group to take advantage and to pick up its sixth consecutive victory over Western Michigan in this series.  The Rockets scored on their first six possessions and held Bowling Green's high-octane offense to a season-low 368 total yards in a 44-28 road win last week.  Western Michigan gives up 185.3 rushing yards per game and has surrendered 525 rushing yards and five rushing TDs in its last two games.  Kareem Hunt has gained 406 yards with six touchdowns over his last three games and is primed for a big day.  The Rockets are 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take Toledo.

6* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +2

The Key: Texas Tech has already clinched its bowl berth, but Texas still needs two more wins to get bowl eligible.  I like the motivational angle of the Longhorns here.  I also like the fact that the Longhorns simply have the Red Raiders figures out.  Indeed, they are 6-0 in their last six meetings with all six wins coming by double-digits.  That includes a 34-13 road win last year and a 41-16 home win in 2013.  Also, Texas Tech hasn't won in Austin since 1997.  It has lost eight straight visits by an average of 26.3 points per game.  The Longhorns are 41-13-1 at home on Thanksgiving Day.  They have rushed for 256.4 yards per game over their last five games.  Texas Tech gives up 259.9 rushing yards per game, which is one of the worst marks in the country.  Take Texas.

7* Panthers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day *FEAST* on Dallas +1.5

The Key: The Cowboys are showing solid value here as home underdogs to the Carolina Panthers.  Jason Garrett is 23-13 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Cowboys.  Dallas is so much better with Tony Romo it's not even funny.  The Cowboys are 3-0 with him and 0-7 without him this season.  They won 24-14 over the Dolphins last week in a dominant effort, outgaining them 386-210 for the game.  The Cowboys now have an elite offense again to go with one of the NFL's best defenses, giving up just 335.5 yards per game.  The Panthers have had a very easy road schedule.  They are 4-0 on the road this year, but three of those wins came against the Jags, Bucs & Titans.  Dallas has won each of its last five meetings with Carolina and will make it six in a row here.  Take Dallas.

6* NCAAB Wednesday Night *CA$H COW* on UMass +4

The Key: It's pretty clear that UMass is a better team that Creighton and shouldn't be an underdog in this game.  The Minutemen have opened 4-0, which is really impressive when you consider they have been a dog in two games.  They beat Harvard 69-63 on the road as 2.5-point underdogs.  They also crushed Clemson 82-65 on a neutral court despite being 7.5-point dogs in that game.  I have not been impressed with Creighton, which is 3-1.  It was crushed 65-86 at Indiana, and it only beat an awful Rutgers team 85-75 as 12-point favorites on a neutral court.  The other two wins came against overmatched Texas Southern and UT-San Antonio teams.  The Minutemen are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  The Bluejays are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  UMass is 8-1 ATS in its last nine November games.  Creighton is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Take UMass.

7* NBA Western Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 196

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are playing tremendous defense this season.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.1 points per 100 possessions.  But their offense has really been lacking recently.  They've averaged 93.3 points in their last three games and have turned the ball over 39 times in their last two.  This has typically been a low-scoring series of late as the UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  They have combined for 180, 195 and 192 points in their last three meetings dating back to last season.  Dallas is 10-1 UNDER off a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Mavericks last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.   The UNDER is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* CBE Hall of Fame Classic Game of the Week on Missouri +7.5

The Key: It was a clear rebuilding season last year for the Missouri Tigers as they went 9-23 in Kim Anderson's first season.  They had to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now they have a lot more experience with four returning starters.  They have been way undervalued in the early going and are here again.  They won 83-74 over Wofford as 2.5-point favorites, beat Maryland-East Shore 73-55, and lost at Xavier 66-78 as 13.5-point dogs.  That was before an ugly 42-66 loss to Kansas State yesterday as they shot just 30.9 percent from the floor.  I believe that blowout loss has the Tigers catching a few too many points here against Northwestern, which lost 69-80 to UNC yesterday.  Northwestern is now 3-1, but two of its wins were far from impressive with a 79-72 home win over Fairfield as 15-point favorites and an 83-80 home win over Columbia as 5.5-point favorites.  The Wildcats are a tired team as they'll be playing their 4th game in 7 days.  Missouri will only be playing its 2nd game in 7 days.  That's the difference here as the Tigers will have a lot more in the tank.  Take Missouri.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington Wizards -2.5

The Key: The Washington Wizards come in playing well having won three straight games over Orlando, Milwaukee and Detroit by a combined 40 points.  They have now had two days off in between games, and this will actually be just their 2nd game in 7 days.  They'll be full of energy in this one to say the least.  The Pacers are also playing well, but they are now overvalued here as only 2.5-point road underdogs in this game.  The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 vs. NBA Central division opponents.  Take Washington.

7* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +23.5

The Key: I really question the motivation of the Bowling Green Falcons right now.  They already locked up their spot in the MAC Championship Game two weeks ago with a win over Western Michigan.  They promptly fell flat on their faces last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo despite being 7-point favorites.  They are in the exact same situation as last year where they clinched with two games left and lost their final two games before getting rolled by Northern Illinois in the Championship Game as well.  In their season finale last year, the Falcons lost 24-41 as 10-point home favorites over Ball State.  The Cardinals would like to end their season on a positive note with a win here, and it's also Senior Night, so they will be motivated.  I have little doubt they'll stay within three touchdowns of Bowling Green in this one.  They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this year.  They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following two straight games where they gave up 37 or more points.  Take Ball State.

7* Bills/Patriots AFC East *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 48.5

The Key: This UNDER fits a very profitable system dating back to 2003.  It tells us to bet on all UNDERS with a total set of 44.5 or higher in division games after Week 11 or later.  This system is 115-71 (61.8%) since 2003.  By focusing in on late-season division rivalries, we are able to identify games in which two teams have already faced off.  The level of familiarity leads to less scoring and better returns for under bettors.  This system has been particularly profitable over the last 3 years, going 52-28 (67.4%).  The Patriots are without two of their best weapons in Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, so don't expect to see the 40-32 shootout we saw in the first meeting between these teams back in Week 2.  This is going to be a grind-it-out game where both teams lean heavily on their rushing attacks, especially the Bills, who want to shorten the game, which will allow them to keep it close.  Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (BUFFALO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in 4 straight games are 29-8 over the last 10 seasons.  Buffalo is 7-0 UNDER vs. winning teams in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  The Bills are 6-0 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Philadelphia 76ers +8

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to go 0-82.  This 0-14 start is ugly, but with that start comes some betting value here in the very near future, and I believe there's a lot of it tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Timberwolves are improved this season, but they shouldn't be 8-point favorites against anyone.  That's especially the case when you consider how poorly they have played at home.  The Timberwolves are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in home games this year, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game in the process.  The 76ers have gone a profitable 4-3 ATS on the road this year.  The Timberwolves are now 2-14 ATS in their last 16 home games overall.  Minnesota is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Take Philadelphia.

6* CBE Hall of Fame Classic *CA$H COW* on Missouri +5.5

The Key: It was a clear rebuilding season last year for the Missouri Tigers as they went 9-23 in Kim Anderson's first season.  They had to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now they have a lot more experience with four returning starters.  They have been way undervalued in the early going and are here again.  They won 83-74 over Wofford as 2.5-point favorites, beat Maryland-East Shore 73-55, and lost at Xavier 66-78 as 13.5-point dogs.  That game against Xavier was six days ago so they've had plenty of time to prepare for Kansas State.  The Wildcats lost their top three scorers from last year in Marcus Foster, Nino Williams and Thomas Gipson, who all averaged at least 11.3 points per game.  They are 3-0 this season, but have taken advantage of an extremely soft schedule with three home games against Maryland-East Shore, Columbia and South Dakota.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12 opponents, and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Take Missouri.

6* Bengals/Cardinals Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Arizona -4.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals may very well be the best team in the NFL this season.  They are outgaining teams by 105.0 yards per game, which is the best mark in the league.  They have the #1 offense in the NFL at 421 yards per game, and they are #3 in total defense as well, giving up 316 yards per game.  I like them here laying this short number against the Bengals, who are clearly overrated due to their 7-1-1 ATS record this season.  The Bengals are playing on a short week after losing 6-10 at home to the Texans on Monday Night Football, which also puts them at a disadvantage.  The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after outgaining each of their last two opponents by 100 or more total yards.  Take Arizona.

7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Redskins +7.5

The Key: The Panthers are 9-0 straight up and 7-2 ATS this season.  They have made backers a lot of money, and as a result, they are clearly overvalued right now.  They have a two-game lead for home-field advantage in the NFC, so they can afford to take their foot off the gas this week.  The Washington Redskins have no such luxury.  They are 4-5 on the season and can pull even with the New York Giants for the NFC East lead with a win this week.  The Redskins are loaded with confidence right now after their 47-14 dismantling of the Saints last week.  They racked up 526 total yards in the win, while holding the high-powered Saints to just 350 yards, outgaining them by 176.  Washington is 39-23 ATS in its last 62 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Washington.

6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +1

The Key: The line before the season on this game was somewhere in the neighborhood of Detroit -7.5.  I believe we are getting serious value here with the Lions as a home underdog to the Raiders this week.  Detroit has opened just 2-7, and that record has it undervalued.  But this team has played better than its record, and it finally got rewarded with an 18-16 upset win at Green Bay last week as double-digit underdogs.  Look for the Lions to come into this game playing with a ton of confidence now.  I'm still not sold on the Raiders because of their defense.  They give up 26.8 points, 408.6 yards per game and 6.1 per play this season.  The Lions still have an above-average offense that is fully capable of putting up a big number on this Oakland D.  The Raiders have only been favored twice this season, and they lost both of those games to the Bears and Vikings.  Plays on team (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-2 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Detroit.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Idaho +34

The Key: How can Auburn be trusted to lay 34 points with the season it is having right now?  The Tigers are 5-5 and still not bowl eligible.  They needed overtime to beat Jacksonville State as a 39-point favorite earlier this year and were outgained in that game by 37 yards.  In fact, they have been outgained in seven of their 10 games this season.  Idaho is better than Jacksonville State.  It has been competitive this season as only one of its seven losses came by more than 27 points.  That was a 9-59 loss at USC back in Week 2.  Idaho does have a good offense that is averaging 29.2 points and 414.8 yards per game and put some points on the board to help with the cover.  The Vandals have scored 27 or more points six times this year.  Sophomore QB Matt Linehan is a stud, completing 63.8 percent of his passes while ranking third in the country in passing yards per game (274.6).  Auburn is 2-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons.  The Tigers will be looking ahead to their Iron Bowl showdown with Alabama next week and won't be up for the Vandals this week.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.  Take Idaho.

7* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -2

The Key: The Pittsburgh Panthers are 7-3 this season and having a great year.  Their three losses were to Notre Dame, Iowa and Pittsburgh, who have a combined two losses on the season.  Both Notre Dame and Iowa are playoff contenders.  The Panthers weren't overmatched against any of those three teams, losing by 12 points or less in all three games with a 3-point loss at Iowa, a 7-point loss to UNC, and a 12-point loss to Notre Dame.  Now it will be up against a mediocre 6-4 Louisville team that has narrow wins over Boston College (17-14), Wake Forest (20-19) and Virginia (38-31) in three of its last four games.  I look for the Panthers to take care of business at home.  They are coming off a 31-13 road win at Duke in what was one of their most complete performances of the season.  That's key because the Panthers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  Pitt is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville, winning four of the last five outright.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* NCAAF Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Florida Atlantic +31

The Key: It's all about survive and advance right now for the Florida Gators, which is precisely what they've done the last two weeks in lackluster performances.  They only beat Vanderbilt 9-7 two weeks ago at home as 20.5-point favorites, and then needed a late TD to put away South Carolina 24-14 on the road last week.  They aren't going to be concerned with how much they beat Florida Atlantic by, instead they'll be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Florida State that will determine whether or not it is a legitimate playoff contender.  The Gators lack the firepower to put up big points as they average just 28.1 points and 371 yards per game.  Florida Atlantic has been much better than its 2-8 record shows.  All 8 of its losses have come by 24 or fewer points, including seven by 18 or less.  They have played some good teams too in Miami, Marshall, Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee.  Florida only has one win by more than 28 points this season, which was back in the opener against an awful New Mexico State team.  The Owls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  FAU is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. SEC opponents.  The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Florida Atlantic.

7* Cincinnati/USF NCAAF Friday Night Lights on South Florida +2

The Key: The South Florida Bulls have a realistic shot of winning the AAC East division.  They are one game back of Temple, which plays Memphis on Saturday.  The Bulls beat the Owls 44-23 at home last week in a dominant effort, outgaining them by 176 yards behind 230 rushing yards from Marlon Mack.  That followed up a 22-17 road win at East Carolina in which they outgained the Pirates by 222 yards.  South Florida has been tough to beat at home, going 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS this season, winning by an average of 21.4 PPG.  The Bulls are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming by 4 points over Miami Ohio as 21-point favorites.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this year.  Take South Florida.

6* NBA Non-Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Knicks/Thunder UNDER 207

The Key: The New York Knicks got a lot better defensively this season when they signed defensive anchor Robin Lopez in the offseason.  They are playing great on the defensive end, holding eight of their last nine opponents to less than 100 points.  But they haven't been a whole lot better offensively this year, scoring 99 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in their last 9 games as a result.  Their job defensively tonight got a whole lot easier when it was announced that Kevin Durant was going to miss this game as well as he continues to recover from injury.  The Thunder just aren't as explosive offensively without him.  These teams played in a couple low-scoring affairs last season.  They combined for 192 and 183 points in their two meetings.  I don't expect that a year later its' going to be any different, especially without Durant and with the way the Knicks are getting after it defensively.  OKC is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* NCAAB Game of the Night on Iowa -2

The Key: Marquette is clearly in trouble this season.  It lost its top scorer from last season in Matt Carlino (15.0 PPG), and three other players who played significant minutes.  Only two starters returned for the Golden Eagles.  They lost 80-83 at home to Belmont in their opener, and then only beat IUPUI 75-71 at home as 13.5-point favorites last time out.  That's the same IUPUI team that lost by 24 at NC State last night.  Iowa is a veteran bunch that returned four starters this season.  It has handled its business with 76-59 and 103-68 home wins over Gardner Webb and Coppin State, respectively.  I look for the Hawkeyes to go on the road and get a win here as a short favorite.  Marquette is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less or a pick 'em over the last 3 seasons, losing by 13.0 points per game.  Take Iowa.

7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville -3

The Key: Jacksonville is 3-6 this season, but only one game back of first place in the AFC South.  The Jaguars have managed three wins despite playing just three home games this season compared to six on the road.  They are playing well right now, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  Their only loss was a 5-point road loss to the Jets in which they outgained them by 146 yards.  Four turnovers are the only thing that prevented the Jags from winning that game.  The Titans have lost five of their last six games and sit at just 2-7 on the season.  Marcus Mariota is going to be without his top two receivers tonight in Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright.  The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this rivalry.  Tennessee is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 vs. division opponents and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 vs. teams who are outscored by 6 or more points per game on the season.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Bucks/Cavaliers TNT *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 195.5

The Key: These teams just played a few days ago on November 14 in a double-overtime thriller in which the Bucks won 108-105 at home.  But this game was tied 88-88 at the end of regulation, which is 176 combined points, nearly 20 points below this 195.5-point total.  These teams are obviously very familiar with each other after having just played, and I look for the defenses to be at an advantage because of it.  The UNDER is 17-4 in Bucks last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the UNDER.

6* ECU/UCF ESPN National TV Annihilator on Central Florida +14.5

The Key: Because they are 0-10, the UCF Knights are show great value today as two-touchdown underdogs to the ECU Pirates.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this 0-10 team.  But the Knights are better than their record and played Tulsa very tough in their last game.  ECU has really struggled of late with three straight losses while averaging just 14.7 points per game in them.  This has become a nice rivalry, so the Knights will be motivated, especially since this game will be aired on ESPN.  UCF has not lost by more than 14 points to ECU in any of the last 9 meetings, making for a 9-0 angle backing the Knights dating back to 2005.  The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games, while the Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday showdowns.  Take UCF.

6* WMU/NIU ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Western Michigan +3

The Key: Western Michigan wants revenge from a 21-31 home loss to Northern Illinois last year that kept it out of the MAC Championship Game.  The Broncos led 21-0 but committed six turnovers to give the game away in the second half.  They have the team to beat Northern Illinois this year and get over the hump.  The Huskies are playing with their backup QB in Ryan Graham, which is a big disadvantage.  Western Michigan is averaging 543 yards per game and giving up just 376 in conference play, outgaining teams by 167 yards per game.  The Broncos are 5-1 against common opponents with Northern Illinois, which is 4-2 against those same teams.  Western Michigan is a perfect 6-0 ATS in conference road games the last two seasons, and 9-2 ATS as an underdog the last two years.  Take Western Michigan.

6* NCAAB Wednesday Night *CA$H COW* on Saint Louis -6

The Key: Saint Louis was in rebuilding mode last year with no returning starters, and it's no surprise they took a step back.  But now the Billikens have 4 returning starters in 2015-16 and will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  SIU-Edwardsville is in the same situation that Saint Louis was last year.  The Panthers have zero returning starters this season.  They only have one returning key reserve in C.J. Carr, who averaged 6.2 points per game last year.  They are pretty much starting over this year.  Saint Louis crushed Hartford 85-68 in its opener while shooting 52.8% from the floor and committing only 7 turnovers.  Saint Louis beat SIU-Edwardsville 67-61 at home last year and 82-58 on the road in 2013.  I expect a result somewhere in between those two performances.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home win by 10 points or more in the first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more consecutive ATS losses are 30-9 ATS since 1997.  Take Saint Louis.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Celtics -4.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics are rolling right now.  They have gone 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall.  They are not only winning, they are dominating as all five wins have come by 13 points or more.  That includes road wins over Houston and Oklahoma City, as well as home wins over Washington and Atlanta, so it's not like they are beating up on bad teams.  The Mavericks are a tired bunch right now as this will be their 7th game in 11 days.  Dallas is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games vs. teams who win 60% or more of their road games.  Take this 14-0 angle backing the Celtics straight to the bank.  Take Boston.

6* Georgetown/Maryland ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Maryland -7.5

The Key: The Maryland Terrapins are the third-ranked team in the country this season.  They returned two of their best players in Melo Trimble (16.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Jake Layman (12.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg).  They added in Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon, while also nabbing five-star recruit Diamond Stone.  The Terrapins got off to a good start this season with an 80-56 win over Mount St. Mary's.  Trimble (14) and Layman (16) led five players who scored in double figures as the Terps held Mount St. Mary's to 31.1% shooting and outrebounded them 44-20.  Georgetown has just two starters back this year and is in serious trouble after losing 80-82 at home in double-overtime to Radford int he opener.  The Hoyas were actually outrebounded 37-43 by Radford, yes Radford.  Georgetown is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, losing by 11.5 points per game.  Maryland is 42-23 ATS in its last 65 home games off a win by 15 points or more, winning by 21.5 points per game.  Take Maryland.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

The Key: At 1-9 on the season, the Pelicans are in desperate need of a win to right the ship.  The good news is that Anthony Davis recently returned to the lineup in an 87-95 loss at New York last time out and scored 36 points, so he appears healthy.  Look for Davis to lead the Pelicans to a blowout win tonight over the Denver Nuggets, who lost 81-105 in Phoenix last time out.  The Nuggets' best player in Kenneth Faried had to sit out the second half of that game, and he's questionable to return tonight with a back injury.  Denver is 1-12 ATS when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons, losing by 8.2 points per game in this spot.  The Nuggets are 1-9 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last two years, losing by 10.8 points per game.  Denver is 0-8 ATS after scoring 35 or fewer points in the first half last game over the last three seasons, losing by 11.3 points per game.  The Pelicans are 24-8 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last two seasons.  Take New Orleans.

7* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Toledo +8

The Key: Bowling Green already clinched the MAC East title for the second consecutive season.  It is now already penciled into the MAC Championship Game.  Toledo is tied with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan atop the MAC West with 5-1 records each.  The Rockets still have some work to do, and motivation will clearly be on their side in this one, while we don't know what we'll get from Bowling Green.  The Falcons were in the same situation last year having clinched the MAC East early, and they proceeded to lose each of their final three games of the season, including a 17-point loss to Ball State at home as 10-point favorites.  Toledo has won five straight meetings with Bowling Green.  The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Toledo.

6* SDSU/Utah ESPN 2 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 132

The Key: Utah and San Diego State are two teams that make a living off their defense.  The Aztecs finished second in Division 1 in scoring defense last season at 53.9 points per game and 3rd in fewer points per possession.  They limited Illinois State to 30.8 percent shooting in their opener.  Utah held its opponents to 41.3 percent shooting on 2-point attempts last season behind the efforts of defensive anchor Jakob Poeltl.  Both teams went over the total in their openers, which I think is why this total has been inflated.  San Diego State beat Illinois State 71-60 while Utah beat Southern Utah 82-71 and allowed 50% shooting, including 10 of 19 from 3-point range.  But look for the Utes to come back with a much stronger effort defensively in this one.  This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings. SDSU beat Utah 53-49 at home last year for 102 combined points despite the total being set at 130.5.  In their previous meeting, SDSU beat Utah 64-50 for 114 combined points with a total of 127.  SDSU is 40-22 UNDER in all games over the last three seasons.  Utah is 16-6 UNDER off one or more consecutive overs over the last three years. Take the UNDER.

7* Texans/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +11

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals could not possible be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS this season, the NFL's only team without an ATS loss.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them this week.  They are now a double-digit favorite for the second consecutive week, and you're not going to lose a lot of money betting double-digit NFL favorites over the long run.  We'll go the other way and side with the Texans, who are just 3-5 on the season, but they're a better team than that record.  The Texans are only a half-game back in the AFC South and can pull into a tie for first place with a win this week.  The Texans are outgaining teams by 18.5 yards per game this season behind the 9th-ranked offense and 14th-ranked defense.  Houston has won five of its last six meetings with Cincinnati.  Betting against favorites of 10.5 or more points, in the second half of the season, who beat the spread by 35 or more combined points over their past five games are 27-8 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Houston.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Indiana Pacers +6

The Key: The grand plan of the Pacers to go smaller this season and utilize the talents of Paul George and Monte Ellis is coming to fruition.  The Pacers are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with their only loss coming to the beat team in the Eastern Conference in the Cleveland Cavaliers by a final of 97-101 on the road as 8-point underdogs.  George is averaging 29.3 points and 9.3 boards while shooting 47.5 percent, including 19 of 40 from 3-point range, over his last six games.  Indiana is 10-1 ATS in November road games over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 33-15 ATS in their last 48 games against poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Take Indiana.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +3

The Key: After a 1-7 start, the Sacramento Kings had a team meeting and it has really brought this club together.  They have won two straight behind a healthy return of DeMarcus Cousins and a more comfortable Rajon Rondo.  Cousins scored 30 of his 40 points in the second half while Rondo has 23 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds in a win over the Nets on Friday.  Cousins has now amassed 73 points in back-to-back wins over the Pistons and Nets.  The Kings have averaged 107.5 points in games that Cousins has played this year, and only 97.5 in the four that he's missed.  Sacramento is 15-3 straight up in its last 18 home meetings with Toronto and should not be an underdog here.  Take Sacramento.

6* NFC Sunday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Detroit Lions +11

The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in.  Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game.  Double-digit underdogs have gone 93-68 ATS since 2003 in division games.  Teams that allowed at least 42 points int heir previous game are 116-81 ATS.  The Lions are coming off their bye week and will be motivated for this division game against the Packers.  They have only lost by more than 10 points at Green Bay in one of the last five road meetings.  Take Detroit.

6* AFC Sunday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Browns +6.5

The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in.  Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game.  Landry Jones is back at quarterback in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger.  The Browns also fit a system that is 97-53 ATS and focuses on teams who are coming off a blowout against "good" teams the previous game like the one the Browns suffered against the Bengals last Thursday.  Cleveland has now had extra time to prepare for Pittsburgh as well after receiving a mini-bye week.  Take Cleveland.

7* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in.  Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game.  Baltimore is just 2-6 with season-ending injuries to Steve Smith Sr. Terrell Suggs and Matt Elam.  The Jaguars outgained the Jets by 146 yards on the road last week after beating the Bills in London.  The Ravens haven't beaten anyone by more than 3 points this year, and six of their eight games were decided by 5 points or less.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Utah/Arizona Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Arizona +6

The Key: Arizona needs one more win to get bowl eligible and would love to get it here against a highly-ranked Utah team.  It doesn't want to have to bank on pulling the upset next week as road underdogs to Arizona State.  The Wildcats are coming off one of their better performances of the season in a 30-38 road loss at USC as 19-point underdogs last week.  Utah was fortunate to win at Washington last week as the Huskies committed four turnovers and gave the Utes a bunch of easy points.  The Utes only gained 346 total yards in that game.  Utah is only outgained teams by 17.6 yards per game on the season, so it is very fortunate to be 8-1 because it continues winning the turnover battle, which is luck more than anything.  Arizona is outgaining teams by 47 yards per game this season behind an offense that is putting up 502.1 per contest.  The Wildcats beat the Utes 42-10 as 5.5-point road underdogs last year while racking up 520 total yards of offense.  Kyle Whittingham is 8-24 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Arizona.  Rich Rodriquez is 6-0 ATS off two or more straight losses as the coach of Arizona, with the Wildcats coming back to win by 15.8 points per game in this situation.  Take Arizona.

6* NBA Non-Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on 76ers/Spurs UNDER 196

The Key: Philadelphia just lost 85-102 at Oklahoma City last night in a low-scoring affair that saw 187 combined points. I expect more of the same from them tonight against the Spurs.  The last time they traveled to San Antonio last season, they lost 75-100 for 175 combined points.  The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging just 92.7 points per 100 possessions.  Their defense is at least decent with all of the big guys in the middle at their disposal, but they can't get anything going offensively.  It's not going to get any easier tonight against a Spurs team that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 94.3 points per 100 possessions.  San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER off a road win where it scored 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 (76ers) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage of less than 25% and playing a team with a winning record are 72-32 since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Antonio.  Take the UNDER.

6* Oklahoma/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -2

The Key: Baylor is 29-1 at home over the last five seasons.  The Bears have won 20 straight at home by an average of 25 points per game with their 61-58 win over TCU last year the only game that was decided by less than a TD.  That includes 13 straight Big 12 home wins as well.  Baylor has beaten Oklahoma by 29 and 34 points the last two years while outgaining the Sooners by 222 and 225 yards, respectively.  The Bears have averaged 42 PPG, 511 YPG and 6.2 YPP in their last four meetings with the Sooners.  They have scored TDs on 21 of their 56 drives with nearly a quarter of their plays going for 10-plus yards.  Jarrett Stidham is better than he's getting credit for here as he's thrown 9 touchdowns without an interception this season while completing 77% of his passes.  The Bears are a ridiculous 26-7 ATS in their last 33 home games overall.  Take Baylor.

7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on South Florida +3

The Key: South Florida is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss to Memphis coming by a final of 24-17.  USF has won its other three games at Raymond James Stadium by a combined 134-41 score.  "I know one thing about Ray Jay, when it's rocking it's hard for any opponent to come in here and play," coach Willie Taggart told the Bulls' official website. "I've been on the other side of that coming in here and playing when that place is rocking. That's how we need it Saturday night."  A win would have the Bulls becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010, so expect a great crowd Saturday night.  Temple is very beatable and is overvalued as the favorite here due to going 5-1 ATS in its last six games.  It needed some late-game magic to beat both East Carolina and SMU on the road recently, which are two teams that aren't as good as this South Florida outfit.  USF also beat ECU on the road and SMU by 24 at home.  The Bulls have won four of their last five with their only loss coming at Navy 17-29 in a game that was very close until the 4th quarter.  USF is 6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  Take South Florida.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Kansas +45.5

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs are going to suffer a hangover Saturday from their 29-49 loss at Oklahoma State that likely cost it a shot to play in the four-team playoff.  With Oklahoma and Baylor on deck, this is a sandwich game that the Horned Frogs aren't going to show up for.  That's why they won't be able to put away Kansas by this ridiculous 45.5-point margin.  Star WR Josh Doctson was knocked out of the Oklahoma State game with a wrist injury and the Horned Frogs never recovered.  While he may return Saturday, he's not going to be 100% and won't be the factor he usually is, making this TCU offense less explosive.  TCU has struggled to beat Kansas State the last three years.  It is 0-3 ATS, only winning 20-6 as 18.5-point road favorites in 2012, 27-17 as 24-point home favorites in 2013, and 34-30 as 28-point road favorites last year.  The Jayhawks were only outgained 418-463 by the Horned Frogs last season.  Take Kansas.

6* Ohio State/Illinois *EARLY RISER* on Ohio State -16.5

The Key: J.T. Barrett returns from his 1-game suspension and will be eager to lead the Buckeyes to a blowout win over Illinois Saturday.  He missed last game against Minnesota, and Ohio State struggled offensively in a 28-14 win with Cardale Jones.  Barrett had started his first game of the season the week before, leading the Buckeyes to a 49-7 win at Rutgers.  Barrett threw for 223 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 101 yards and two touchdowns in the win.  He is the real deal, and this offense goes as he goes.  Illinois has been a punching bag for Ohio State in recent years and I look for that to continue.  The Buckeyes have won the least three meetings by 41, 25 and 30 points, or by an average of 32.0 points per game.  The Buckeyes are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 road games.  The Fighting Illini are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.  Take Ohio State.

6* USC/Colorado Pac-12 *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 59

The Key: This one is pretty easy folks as this game is going to be a shootout between Colorado and USC.  They combined for 86 points last year in a 56-28 USC victory in which Cody Kessler threw a school-record 7 touchdown passes.  That followed up a 76-point effort in 2013 when USC won 47-29 at Colorado.  USC has combined for 66 or more points with 3 of its last 4 opponents.  Colorado has combined for 65 or more points in 4 of its last 6 games with its opposition.  Colorado is 9-1 to the OVER in its last 10 games against teams that win 60% to 75% of their games with 74 points per game on average in this spot.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 203.5

The Key: When looking at the recent history between the Cavs and Knicks, it's easy to see that there is some serious value with the UNDER 203.5 tonight.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 182, 184, 177 and 185 points, which comes out to an average of 182 points per game.  That's 21.5 points less than this 203.5-point total.  These teams just played on November 4 with 182 combined points.  This total just makes no sense to me with how high it has been set, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* Bills/Jets NFL Thursday *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -1.5

The Key: This line is indicating that the Bills are actually the better team.  Once again, the Jets aren't getting enough credit for how good they really are as only 1.5-point favorites here.  They rank 4th in the NFL in total defense and 11th in total offense, outgaining teams by 42.6 yards per game.  The Bills are getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game this year.  This line is an overreaction from Buffalo's blowout win over Miami last week in which the Bills were in a good spot because they returned from their bye.  It's also an overreaction from losses in two of the last three games from the Jets, but two of those games on the road to the Pats and Raiders, and they rebounded with a home win over the Jaguars last week.  New York is now 3-1 at home this year and should be 4-0 because it outgained Philadelphia by nearly 100 yards but committed 4 turnovers in a 17-24 loss.  Buffalo is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 games following a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take New York.

6* Warriors/Timberwolves TNT *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +9.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  I always look to fade teams in this spot, and this is a prime opportunity to do so.  The Warriors are 9-0 and the betting public cannot get enough of them right now.  Oddsmakers are forced to jack up their lines game in and game out, and it's going to be profitable to fade them sooner rather than later.  This looks like the prime opportunity to do so as the Warriors would have to go on the road and win by double-digits in this spot to beat us.  Minnesota is 4-3 this season with 4 wins over the Lakers, Nuggets, Bulls and Hawks all on the road, and three of those coming by 9 points or more.  The Timberwolves will be motivated for their first home win here.  Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio both didn't play against Charlotte on Tuesday, but both are coming back for this game.  The Warriors are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing home record.  Take Minnesota.

6* UL-Lafayette/South Alabama Sun Belt Game of the Week on UL-Lafayette +2

The Key: Despite sharing identical 4-4 records, there's no question in my mind that UL-Lafayette is by far the superior team in this matchup with South Alabama.  The Rajin' Cajuns are outgaining teams by 2 yards per game this season, while the Jaguars are getting outgained by 30 yards per game.  Lafayette is also only getting outscored by 1.3 points per game, while South Alabama is getting outscored by 9.9 points per game.  This is a great matchup for the Rajin' Cajuns.  They are a run-first team that averages 211 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry.  They'll be up against a South Alabama defense that gives up 218 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  Their ability to run the football at will is going to prove to be the difference in this one.  South Alabama is 1-11 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 in its last 12 tries.  The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.   Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a home win after the first month of the season are 58-19 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Lafayette.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -3

The Key: The Denver Nuggets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight, so they will be ready to go when they welcome the Milwaukee Bucks.  The same cannot be said for the Bucks, who are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after their 83-99 loss at home to Boston yesterday.  Making matters worse for the Bucks is that three of their best players are expected to miss this game in O.J. Mayo, Jabari Parker and Michael Carter-Williams.  The thick air in Denver is going to play a big role here.  The Bucks haven't had much luck in Denver anyways, going 8-36 in 44 meetings all-time.  They have dropped five straight trips to Denver as well.  Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games against the Western Conference.  Take Denver.

6* Bowling Green/Western Michigan MAC *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan +3

The Key: Western Michigan is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss coming 24-37 to Michigan State.  It is outscoring teams by an average of 18.0 points per game at home this year.  The Broncos will pick up another win as home underdogs to the Bowling Green Falcons tonight.  Western Michigan has the better defense in this one, and its balance offensively with 208 rushing yards per game and 278 passing is a nice asset to have.  The Broncos are 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Falcons, including last year's 26-14 road win.  Western Michigan is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 games as an underdog.  Take Western Michigan.

7* NBA *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They had a tremendous preseason and that has carried over into the regular season.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over quality opponents in Washington (118-98) and Milwaukee (99-83).  Yes, they did play last night against the Bucks, but they had three days off before that game, so that makes this second of a back-to-back a non-factor.  Plus, the Celtics will bring plenty of energy into this one anyways as they want revenge from their 98-100 road loss to Indiana a week ago today.  The Pacers are overvalued heading into this game because they have gone 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall.  Boston was a 2-point road favorite at Indiana in the first meeting, and now it is only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  Based on that 2-point spread, the Celtics should be roughly 8-point home favorites here when you factor in home-court advantage.  I believe were are getting them at a discounted price as a result.  Boston is 14-3 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last two seasons.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, which is why the Celtics have been so profitable to back in these no rest situations.  Take Boston.

7* Toledo/CMU NCAAF Tuesday *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +4.5

The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas are a sensational 8-1 against the spread in 2015.  The oddsmakers continue to undervalue this team, and that's the case here as 4.5-point home underdogs.  They have lost four games this year, but they covered the spread in all four and arguably should have won three of them.  They outgained Michigan State, Western Michigan and Syracuse.  Oklahoma State, which is 9-0, only outgained them by 77 yards in an 11-point road win.  Central Michigan is rested having last played on October 31.  Toledo is in a tough spot here after playing on November 3 last Tuesday in a 32-27 home loss to Northern Illinois.  That loss is likely going to keep the Rockets out of the MAC Championship Game again, and these players know it.  It's going to be hard to bounce back from that loss as a result.  Central Michigan has won its last three home games all by 10 points or more, including a 29-19 victory over that same Northern Illinois team.  The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Central Michigan.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Lakers +11

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers have been better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  They just haven't been able to close games late because they have been in almost every game they've played.  Four of their five losses have come by 11 points or less, and if they lose this game Tuesday, it's likely to be by 11 or less once again.  The Miami Heat are coming off a huge 96-76 home win over Toronto last time out that has them overvalued.  But the Heat haven't won two straight games yet this season as they've alternated wins and losses.  The Lakers were awful last year and not as good as they are this year, yet they only lost to the Heat by 6 and 3 points.  In fact, each of the last 9 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less, which is even more impressive when you consider Lebron James played the majority of those games for the Heat.  That's a 9-0 angle when you figure in this 11-point spread tonight.  Take Los Angeles.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Denver Nuggets PK

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are hungry for a win after dropping two straight and four of their last five.  They have had two days off in between games having last played on Friday.  So they had the entire weekend to correct their mistakes.  Head coach Mike Malone was pleased with the way his team responded in the second half against the Warriors on Friday, outscoring them 60-45 after intermission while shooting 51.1 percent.  Look for that effort to carry over into this game.  The Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  They were outscored 41-11 in the 4th quarter to lose to the Pistons 103-120 last night.  I look for them to come out flat in this game after that brutal finish and because their starters are asked to play so many minutes.  The Blazers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss.  Take Denver.

7* Bears/Chargers MNF *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 49

The Key: I like taking the OVER in games between two teams who are pretty much out of the playoff hunt.  Offenses tend to play a little looser with more of a playground feel to it, and defensive don't offer as much resistance.  We saw that last week in the Chargers/Ravens game, which went over the 50.5-point total.  I think we'll see it again this week from the Chargers/Bears game with only a 49-point total on the Monday Night Football stage.  The Chargers are 1st in the NFL in total offense at 423 yards per game and 1st in passing offense at 337 yards per game.  Jay Cutler has been playing much better with Alshon Jeffery in the lineup.  Jeffery has at least 100 receiving yards in all three games that he has started this season.  Both defenses are awful with the Bears allowing 28.9 points per game and the Chargers giving up 28.4 per contest.  Chicago is 7-0 OVER after covering the spread in two of its last three games over the past three seasons.  San Diego is 58-36 OVER in its last 94 non-conference games.  The OVER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 road games.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Key: The Thunder have lost three straight games by all by 6 points or less to three good teams in Houston, Toronto and Chicago, with two of those losses coming on the road.  They also had to play 4 games in 5 days during that losing streak, so it was just a very difficult stretch of games.  They've had two days off to regroup, rest, and get better as a team.  I expect them to put their best foot forward now as they return home to face the Phoenix Suns.  They weren't healthy last year, yet they won 3 out of 4 meetings with the Suns with two of those coming by 12 and 24 points.  The Thunder are a dangerous team now at full strength with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka all healthy.  They'll cruise to victory tonight in a huge effort to end this losing streak.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Key: Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost consecutive games as a starter since 2010.  That just shows the kind of resiliency he and the Packers have had ever since he's been at the helm.  After a blowout loss to the Broncos last week, the Packers will be playing with extra motivation this week.  They also want to earn the tiebreaker over the Panthers if it comes down to home-field advantage in the playoffs.  The Panthers are 7-0, but they haven't beaten a team with a winning record, and this will be the best team that they've played this year.  The Packers are 9-0 ATS after playing a road game over the past two seasons.  Take Green Bay.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

The Key: The Steelers need a win after dropping their last two games to the Chiefs and Bengals.  Ben Roethlisberger returned last week, but he cost the team with 3 interceptions in their 16-10 loss to the Bengals.  He will certainly want to redeem himself this week.  That shouldn't be a problem against an Oakland defense that ranks 31st against the pass at 302 yards allowed per game.  The Raiders are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers here because of their two wins over the Chargers and Jets the past two weeks.  But they were coming off a bye when they faced a San Diego team that was coming off a heartbreaking last-second loss to Green Bay and didn't show up.  The Jets didn't show up last week either after their tough loss to the Patriots the previous week.  The Raiders are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games off an upset win as a home underdog.  The Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after losing two of their past three games.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Dolphins/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on Miami +3

The Key: This play fits into a system that tells us to bet on teams that lost their last game by at least 20 points, are receiving less than 50% of the spread bets, and are underdogs of 3 or more points.  Teams off blowout losses are almost always undervalued.  The Dolphins lost 7-36 to the Patriots last Thursday.  They are not only going to be motivated following that loss, they also want revenge from a 41-14 blowout loss to the Bills earlier this year.  This is a Dolphins offense that put up 41.0 points per game in two wins over Tennessee and Houston before that loss to New England.  Buffalo has surrendered 34.0 points per game in back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Jacksonville.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 who are coming off a road loss and have a losing record on the season are 25-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Miami.

6* Rockets/Clippers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on OVER 215.5

The Key: These are two teams that love to push the tempo as they both rank in the top 10 in the NBA in possessions per game.  That's going to lead to a high-scoring game tonight, which is the usual outcome when these teams get together.  They have combined for 213, 226, 227, 223, 223, 224 and 218 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 222 combined points per game.  Because of this, I believe there's some value with the over 215.5 tonight.  Houston has combined with its opponents for 226, 233 and 215 points in its last three games overall.  The OVER is 9-1 in Clippers last 10 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 10-3 in Clippers lats 13 games overall.  The OVER is 15-5 in Clippers last 20 Saturday games.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Take the OVER.

7* LSU/Alabama NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -7

The Key: LSU has breezed to 7-0 thanks to a soft schedule that has featured five home games.  But the two road games the Tigers have played in, they didn't play nearly as well.  They only won 21-19 at Mississippi State as 3-point favorites and 34-24 at Syracuse as 23.5-point favorites.  Alabama is built to stop the run and dominates all teams that think they can just run the football on them.  LSU is a one-dimensional offense that only averages 11 pass completions per game.  Alabama will be highly motivated to stop Leonard Fournette, who has benefited from playing such a soft schedule to this point.  Alabama only gives up 78 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  Two other one-dimensional running teams didn't have any success against the Crimson Tide this year.  They beat Wisconsin 35-17 and Georgia 38-10, both on the road.  Alabama can both pass (233 yards/game) and run (188 yards/game), and its balance offensively will be huge in this game.  LSU has allowed at least 19 points in all seven of its games this season, so it is no juggernaut defensively.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games following a win.  Take Alabama.

6* C-USA Game of the Week on Old Dominion +8.5

The Key: Old Dominion is 0-8 against the spread this season, still the only team to fail to cover at least one spread all year.  The betting public obviously doesn't want anything to do with this team because of their futility against the number.  But there's a ton of sharp money on the Monarchs as this line has been bet down from 12 to 8.5 already.  I still don't think it's enough because the Monarchs are the better team in this one.  They are 3-5 on the season and needing to win 3 of their last 4 games to become bowl eligible.  It starts this week against UTSA, which is just 1-7 on the season and has nothing to play for but pride.  So I like the motivational advantage for the Monarchs here  They still play UTSA, UTEP, Southern Miss and Florida Atlantic in their final four games, so winning three of those is very doable.  UTSA is so bad that it just lost to North Texas 23-30 last week, which fired its head coach earlier this year.  The Roadrunners have been outgained in five of their last seven games, and by 144-plus yards in four of those.  They shouldn't be laying this kind of weight against the Monarchs.  Plays against of 3.5 to 10 points (UTSA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more in weeks 10 through 13 are 29-6 ATS since 1992.  Take Old Dominion.

6* Sun Belt Game of the Week on New Mexico State +17

The Key: New Mexico State is coming off its first win of the season last week in a 55-48 victory over Idaho.  But make no mistake, this team is better than 1-7.  The Aggies have three losses by 9 points or less this year, so they have been competitive in most of their games.  They should not be catching 17 points against a Texas State team that has rarely even been competitive in a 2-5 start.  Four of Texas State's five losses have come by 22 or more points.  The only exception was a 50-56 home loss to Southern Miss.  Texas State's two wins have come against FCS foe Prairie View A&M and South Alabama.  But the 36-18 home win over South Alabama was very fluky as the Bobcats were outgained by 44 yards in that contest.  Texas State gives up 43.1 points, 553 yards per game and 7.2 per play.  New Mexico State is no slouch offensively, averaging 26.5 points, 419 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  The Aggies will be able to score enough points to stay within the number here.  Texas State only beat NMSU 37-29 last year and shouldn't have won that game at all.  The Aggies outgained the Bobcats 639-430 for the game and will be playing with revenge in mind.  Plays against home favorites (TEXAS ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 33-8 ATS since 1992.  Take New Mexico State.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Army +17

The Key: In rivalry games like this, I usually look to side with the underdog first.  I can't help but think there is some serious value here with Army catching 17 points against Air Force.  For starters, Army has had two full weeks to prepare for Air Force after last playing on October 24 in a 31-38 road loss to Rice.  Meanwhile, Air Force had to travel all the way to Hawaii last weekend.  The Falcons won that game 58-7 against a hapless Warriors bunch that hasn't been competitive against anyone lately.  That final score has inflated this line higher than it should be.  The spread for the Army/Navy game hasn't been higher than 17 points in any of the last 11 meetings.  Army hasn't lost to Air Force by more than 17 points in any of the last four meetings.  Army QB Ahmad Bradshaw is probable for this game.  He is a decent passer completing 50% of his passes with a 3-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 336 yards and four touchdowns while being limited to only six games this year due to injury.  Army has played its best football on the road this year with a 5-point loss at UConn as 6.5-point dogs, a 22-point win at Eastern Michigan as 2-point favorites, a 6-point loss at Penn State as 25.5-point dogs, and a 7-point loss at Rice as 7-point dogs.  So, the Black Knights are 3-0-1 ATS in road games this year.  The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Army.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Duke +7.5

The Key: Duke got the shaft when Miami's kick return TD on the final game of the play wasn't overturned.  Instead of winning like they should have, they lost 30-27.  For most teams it would be hard to recover from that kind of result, but that won't be the case for Duke.  That's because if they win out, they'll still win the ACC Coastal Division and play in the ACC Championship Game.  "Even if we (had beaten Miami), we would still need to beat UNC to make it to (first place in) the Coastal," defensive lineman A.J. Wolf said Tuesday. "That helps us refocus up and say, `Guys, this game's huge.' We still need to beat them to make it there. We're still in the driver's seat."  In UNC's two toughest games this year, they only beat both Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh by a touchdown each.  I believe there's a good chance this game is decided by a TD or less as well.  Duke is outgaining its foes by 126 yards per game and the Tar Heels by 112.  Duke is not only 8-1 ATS in its last nine regular season games as an underdog, but also 8-1 straight up in those.  Take Duke.

7* BYU/San Jose State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +13

The Key: San Jose State is a better team than it gets credit for.  It is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall while outgaining four of its last five opponents.  The Spartans outgained Fresno State by 296 yards, Auburn by 64 on the road, UNLV by 41 on the road, and New Mexico by 163 at home while winning three of those four contests.  BYU is a team that relies heavily on the pass to move the football, averaging 294 yards per game through the air.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Spartans, who lead the country in giving up just 122 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt.  BYU is without three starting offensive linemen in Ryker Matthews, Ului Lapuaho and Kyle Johnson, so it is short-handed up front, too.  The Spartans are actually outgaining opponents by 63.6 yards per game this season.  The home team is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series, including a 20-14 win by the Spartans in their only home meeting with the Cougars.  Even in their two road losses they only lost by 13 as 14.5-point dogs and by 3 as 18-point dogs.  This one will go right down to the wire as well.  BYU is 0-6 ATS off a bye week over the last three seasons, losing by 5.8 points per game.  Take San Jose State.

6* Nuggets/Warriors Western Conference *BAILOUT* on OVER 211

The Key: The Nuggets are going to make a concentrated effort to push the tempo tonight after their 84-96 loss to defensive-minded Utah last night.  "In our losses, we've had too many ups and downs," said Danilo Gallinari, who scored a team-high 18 points. "We cannot allow ourselves to have too many ups and downs and have lapses in the game where we don't have pace".  The Warriors play at the league's fourth-fastest pace this season and lead the NBA in averaging 114.2 points per 100 possessions.  Looking at recent meetings, it's easy to see that there is value with the OVER.  These teams have gone 3-1 to the OVER in their last four meetings while averaging 226.3 combined points per game.  That's roughly 15 points more than tonight's posted total of 211.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Boston Celtics PK

The Key: The Boston Celtics were one of the most impressive teams in the preseason with their 6-1 record while ranking 2nd in the NBA in efficiency, outscoring teams by 11.6 points per 100 possessions.  It hasn't exactly translated into the regular season with their 1-3 start, but their three losses have come to the Raptors, Spurs and Pacers.  Off 3 straight losses, look for the Celtics to be playing with a little extra motivation tonight.  At the same time, I expect the Wizards to come out flat following Bradley Beal's last-second 3-pointer to down the Spurs 102-99 on Wednesday.  The Wizards are 3-1, but all three wins have come by 5 points or fewer, and two against the lowly Magic and Bucks. They also lost to the Knicks at home.   The home team went 3-0 in their 3 meetings last year.  The Wizards are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a win by 6 points or less, coming back to lose by 5.5 points per game in this situation.  Take Boston.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas Mavericks -4.5

The Key: The 1-3 Charlotte Hornets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 4.5-point road underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks.  They are coming off a huge offensive performance against the Bulls to get their first win of the season, which has them overvalued.  But now they take on a Western Conference playoff contender in the Dallas Mavericks, whose two losses this season have come against two of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers and Raptors.  The Mavericks have won 23 of their last 24 meetings with the Hornets in which Dirk Nowitzki has played.  They have held Charlotte to below 100 points 13 times in a 14-game home winning streak in this series.  I look for their home dominance in this series to continue tonight.  Take Dallas.

7* Browns/Bengals TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +11.5

The Key: Johnny Manziel will get the start for the Browns and has grown a lot since last year as a player.  He has thrown three touchdown passes against one interception with a very solid 93.2 QB rating this year.  He led the Browns to a 28-14 win over the Titans earlier this season and has handled himself well when forced into action.  While the Bengals are the better team on paper, I don't believe they are 11.5 points better than the Browns in this one.  The Bengals are in a prime letdown spot off their big win over the Steelers on Sunday and likely won't bring the focus it takes to put away the Browns by double-digits.  Plus, this rivalry game has been very whacky with the road team winning both meetings last year, including a 24-3 win by the Browns.  The underdog is 13-2-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings as well, so rarely do these games go as expected.  Plus, I like the fact that Cleveland is 8-1 ATS off one or more straight ATS losses over the last two seasons.  The Browns are actually outscoring their opponents by 4.7 points per game in this spot.  Take Cleveland.

6* Baylor/Kansas State Big 12 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 68

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats aren't going to be able to put up enough points to help get this over.  They have been held to a combined 9 points in their past two games with a 55-0 loss to Oklahoma and a 9-23 loss at Texas.  The Sooners held them to 110 total yards while the Longhorns held them to 242.  QB Joe Hubener has completed 30 of 78 passes with one touchdown and five interceptions in Big 12 play.  This Baylor defense is one of the strongest in the Big 12 in allowing just 25.1 PPG this season.  Kansas State does still have a respectable defense that is allowing 28.9 PPG this season.  Baylor won't be as prolific offensively with a freshman QB making his first start in the absence of Seth Russell.  I also like that both teams have had nearly two weeks to prepare for one another, which certainly favors defense over offense.  They have combined for 65 and 60 points in their last two meetings.  Take the UNDER.

6* Knicks/Cavs NBA on ESPN *CA$H COW* on New York +10.5

The Key: The New York Knicks have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They won 122-97 at Milwaukee as 4.5-point underdogs and 117-110 at Washington as 7-point dogs.  Their only two losses came at home against two of the best teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs.  So, they have played four playoff teams from last year, and they've handled themselves very well.  Cleveland is overvalued right now due to a 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  That was the case for the Cavaliers as they failed to cover as 13-point road favorites in a 7-point win at Philadelphia last time out, and it's the case again here tonight as double-digit favorites when they shouldn't be.  The Knicks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Cleveland.  Take New York.

7* Ohio/BG MAC Game of the Week on Ohio +20

The Key: The betting public loves backing high-scoring teams like the Bowling Green Falcons.  They have been rewarded this year as the Falcons have gone 6-2 straight up and 6-2 against the spread up to this point.  But now the oddsmakers have over-adjusted here in listing the Falcons as 20-point favorites over rival Ohio.  Adding to this adjustment is that Ohio has been blown out in its past two games against Western Michigan and Buffalo.  But the loss to Buffalo was far from the 17-41 final score as the Bobcats actually outgained the Bulls by 49 yards in the game, but shot themselves in the foot with four turnovers.  Ohio has played some good football on the road this year, winning 14-12 at Akron and only losing 24-27 at Minnesota.  The Bobcats still believe they can win the MAC, but it starts with an upset here of the Falcons.  Look for them to put their best foot forward in this rivalry game.  The Bobcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.  Take Ohio.