10* Under Rays/Angels (10:07 ET): Tampa Bay is coming off a couple of high-scoring losses, and costly ones at that as they've now fallen out of the top Wild Card spot in the American League. Those games, which ended up 10-8 and 6-4, took place in Arlington where - more often than not - games tend to be high scoring (average of 11.2 rpg scored). But now they'll be matched up w/ an Angels team that is on a four-game losing streak, all Unders as well. In those four games, the Halos have scored a grand total of six runs. This should be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

We know the Rays have good pitching. They are #2 in runs allowed in the American League, trailing only the team that just swept the Angels (Cleveland). Charlie Morton will get the baseball in Friday's opener, looking to win 15 games for a 2nd straight season. Morton's last start was quite good as he struck out 10 in six innings and allowed just three runs on five hits. He's now allowed 3 ER or fewer in four of his last five outings. During that time, he's given up just one home run. He has a 3.11 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 30 starts. The Angels have gone Under the L6 times they've faced a starter w/ a WHIP below 1.15. 

There's some question as to just whom will be in - or out - of the Angels lineup tonight. Mike Trout is expected back after missing the last week w/ a nerve condition in his right foot. But Shohei Ohtani's season looks to be done as he's set to undergo knee surgery. As already mentioned, LA simply isn't scoring much now. Trout's absence is a part of that, but overall this is a team hitting just .215 over the last week. On the bright side, Andrew Heaney is their most profitable starter this year and he's set to start Friday. He had a really strong August and has a 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP his L7 starts. The Rays are 5-0 Under the L5 times they've faced a lefty and 26-12-1 the L39 times they've faced on the road. Heaney's only start vs. the Rays this year saw him allow just one run on two hits in 5 IP.  10* Under Rays/Angels

8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): It was a costly loss for the Rays last night in more ways than one. First off, losing is never good, but especially when you're in a playoff race. Both the A's and Indians won Wednesday, which means the three Wild Card contenders in the American League are now separated by just a single game in the standings. Tampa Bay remains on top, but obviously a lot can change in a day now. The team the Rays are facing here, Texas, is a not contender and thus there's really no excuse to lose B2B games. Look for the better team to assert itself tonight.

Texas has played better of late, winning five of six. But four of those wins were against the sorry Orioles. Last night's game was certainly a wild one, basically decided in two crucial innings. The Rangers scored seven runs in the bottom of the first for their highest scoring inning of the year. It took 41 pitches before the Rays finally got an out. But, incredibly, they battled back to take the lead by the 4th. That lead easily could have been extended in the 7th, which is when they had TWO runners picked off. That proved costly as Rougned Odor homered for the Rangers in the bottom half of the frame, making it a 10-8 game and giving his team the lead for good. Obviously, I cannot see Tampa Bay's pitching (2nd in AL in runs allowed) being as inept as it was last night. They also are unlikely to make the same kind of mistakes we saw in yday's game. 

The Rays had won 11 of 12 before losing last night. They still are 44-28 on the road, one of the best such records in baseball. Texas has lost 23 of its last 34 games against teams w/ a winning record. For TB, it's Brendan McKay getting the nod tonight. His big league debut came against the Rangers on 6.29 and he was perfect through five innings and ended up allowing just one hit in six. After being "shut down" for 10 days (arm fatigue), McKay returned to the rotation last Friday and threw 3 2/3 shutout innings vs. Toronto, again allowing just one hit. He also had seven strikeouts. Kolby Allard is going here for Texas and while he's been good his last three starts overall, his ERA and WHIP at home are still 6.51 and 1.861 respectively. I don't read much into his 5-1 TSR. 8* Tampa Bay

8* St. Louis (3:10 ET): The Cardinals are lucky that the Cubs are struggling in San Diego, because they've had no better luck in Denver, dropping both previous games in the series to the Rockies. This is quite the reversal of fortune considering the respective runs each team was on coming into the series. Over the previous month, they had gone 23-7 to take over the NL Central and really solidify themselves as a probable playoff participant. Meanwhile, Colorado had lost 11 of 12 coming into this series. I can't see a last place team sweeping a first place one, even if it is at home. 

Usually, the problem visiting teams encounter here at Coors Field is giving up too many runs. But the St. Louis pitching staff is one of the "best in the business," having allowed the third fewest runs in MLB. And they've definitely done their job in this series, giving up only two runs in each game. The problem has been the offense failing to take advantage of the hitter friendly climate Coors provides. Both games have been 2-1 losses. For the year, the Rockies allow 6.8 rpg at home, easily the most in all of baseball. It's the bats that the Redbirds desperately need to show up today. I believe they will. 

Miles Mikolas has made only one career start here in Coors and it was a disaster (gave up 12 runs), the worst of his career. But that was a different season. This version of Mikolas has pitched very well of late w/ a 2.65 ERA and 0.882 WHIP his L3 starts. He'll be facing a Colorado lineup that has scored three runs or fewer in seven straight games. Granted, five of those were on the road, but the last two weren't. Tim Melville goes for the Rockies and this will be just his fifth start of 2019. He's pitched OK in three of the previous four, but the last one at home was a struggle as he lasted only two innings and gave up five runs. The Cardinals are 30-19 in day games this season and too good to be swept by the lowly Rockies. 8* St. Louis

8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): So, the Wild Card race in the National League has taken yet another dramatic turn here in Citi Field with the Mets taking three straight from the D'backs. Arizona came into this series having won 11 of 13 games after largely underachieving much of the year. But they've had no luck here in Queens, especially last night when they went down 9-0. If this pattern seems all too familiar, well, remember the Mets started the second half by winning 20 of 26 games before hitting their own wall. But now they're back ahead of Arizona in the WC hunt and only two games back of the Cubs/Brewers. All signs point to the Mets finishing off the sweep here.

The D'backs have managed only three runs in this series and just eight in the last five games. That's exactly what Mets' starter Marcus Stroman wants to hear as he's struggled a bit of late. Stroman was obviously supposed to solidify this Mets' starting rotation for the stretch run, but the team has lost his last three times out. Then again, that has a lot to do w/ lack of run support as the Mets have scored only four total runs in the three games. Stroman has a 19-4 KW ratio in the three starts, so it hasn't been all bad even though just one of his seven starts in a Mets uniform has been a quality one. Still, given the D'backs lack of offense in this series, we see him getting back on track tonight. The Mets are 21-7 off their previous 28 wins. 

Arizona will counter with rookie Alex Young, who turned in a sensational effort last week in Cincinnati where he went eight innings w/o giving up a run. It was arguably the best start of his career so far, even better than the one where he threw six no-hit innings vs. Colorado. He had 12 strikeouts in the last one. But how does Young follow that up? Only one time all year has Young been able to turn in B2B quality outings. The Mets are 7-1 their last eight games vs. a starter that has a 1.15 WHIP or better. Arizona has lost seven of the last eight times it has had to play a 4th game in a series. At home, the Mets are 41-29 this season and they finish off the sweep here. 8* NY Mets

8* Under Royals/White Sox (8:10 ET): These are two of the lowest scoring teams in baseball w/ the Royals ranking 28th in runs scored and the White Sox 27th. Last night's game was a 7-3 win for Chicago as they gained a measure of revenge for what happened the last time these AL Central rivals met, that being a Royals sweep at Kauffman Stadium in July. We don't see the White Sox scoring as many runs tonight as they're actually one of MLB's most overrated teams going by run differential. Having been outscored by 135 runs, you'd expect just 58 wins, not the 64 they actually have. This should be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

Even though they have more wins than they should, it's not been a good season for the White Sox collectively or for tonight's starter Reynaldo Lopez individually. That said, Lopez is off his best start of the year. He went the distance vs. Cleveland, allowing just one run on one hit and had 11 strikeouts. That was in stark contrast to the disastrous outing he had in Atlanta on August 31st. The last time Lopez pitched here at Guaranteed Rate Field, he got the job done w/ five shutout innings. He's been wildly inconsistent overall, but is actually working on an 11+ inning scoreless streak at home entering tonight. His last four home starts have all seen him allow 2 ER or fewer. It's a weak lineup he'll be facing here tonight and the last two times Lopez has faced the Royals, he's allowed only two runs in 12 IP. 

I should point out that the difference in last night's game was a grand slam from the White Sox Eloy Jiminez. Take that away and you have a 3-3 game. Like his counterpart Lopez, Glenn Sparkman (tonight's starter for KC) has been inconsistent. But he did throw his own CG at their expense back on July 16th. It was a five-hit shutout. Sparkman also held the White Sox to just three runs (one unearned) in 6 2/3 IP back in June. Chicago only averages 3.9 rpg vs. right-handed starters, so this is tailor-made for a low-scoring situation. 8* Under Royals/White Sox 

10* Under Dodgers/Orioles (7:05 ET): Granted, "Under" may not be your first response when seeing the Dodgers getting an additional bat (DH) for a matchup against an Orioles pitching staff that has surrendered a MLB-high 891 runs this season. However, Baltimore will have its most effective starter on the mound tonight (John Means) and we believe he can keep the home team in this one. The Dodgers clinched their 7th straight NL West pennant last night and may not be as prolific at the plate tonight after celebrating that particular achievement. Take the Under. 

Both of tonight's starters come in with strong looking resumes. It might just be a spot start for Ross Stripling of the Dodgers tonight, but he excelled in that situation on Sept 1, tossing three shutout innings. The last four times Stripling has started a game for Dodger Blue, he's allowed a combined six runs. The primary reason he's not in the rotation is the embarrassment of riches the Dodgers possess in the pitching department. Stripling's last work saw him deliver two shutout innings vs. Colorado last Wednesday. He should do just fine against a Baltimore lineup that has scored 4 runs or less in 8 of its last 10 ballgames. 

Last night saw the Dodgers jump all over O's starter Ty Blach for six runs by the top of the third. Baltimore having Means on the mound tonight should prevent a similar situation from unfolding. Means is coming off three consecutive quality outings (two of them wins!) where he allowed a total of just five runs in 20 2/3 IP. His ERA and WHIP during that time are 2.18 and 0.677 respectively. Means has pitched quite well at Camden Yards this season, posting a 2.95 ERA and 0.996 WHIP here in 14 starts. Of course, there is the issue of run support, but that's why we are on the Under. 10* Under Dodgers/Orioles 

8* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros hammered the A's last night, 15-0, as they became the first team in MLB history to homer six times in the first two innings of a game. By that point, it was 11-0, which was more than enough for Zack Greinke, who gave up just three hits. Houston has now won five in a row and outscored their opponents 36-1 the last two games while the pitching staff has allowed only four hits! It was one thing to beat up on the sorry Mariners, but crushing a potential playoff team like Oakland is really impressive. Speaking of impressive, Houston is now 56-17 at home this season, including a ridiculous 28-2 vs. division foes. They are 17-4 in the L21 games overall. In other words, this is a team not to be faded. While this play qualifies as a late update, really I should have jumped on the 'Stros even earlier. 

Following sensational efforts from both Gerrit Cole and Greinke, Wade Miley is next up in the Astros' rotation. He's gone 7-0 over his last 14 starts w/ a 3.41 ERA. Remember that Justin Verlander is also in this rotation! Miley's last start happened to be his worst of the year, though he did not lose as the offense bailed him out in a wild 11-9 come from behind win. Look for Miley to bounce back here as he's posted a 1.83 ERA in three starts vs. Oakland this year, allowing just 4 runs on 12 hits in 19 2/3 IP. The Astros are 21-8 in all Miley starts this year, including 11-2 at home. By the way, the Astros are outscoring teams by 2.4 rpg at home this year, which is a huge margin. 

Oakland is going with Tanner Roark in this spot and he's clearly up against it based on what the Astros have done at the plate these last two games. For the year, Houston is averaging 6.1 runs per game at home! After the second inning was over ydat, they's scored a total of 32 runs the last nine times through the order, which is second most in MLB history. Roark has pitched well for the A's, including a win over the Astros on 8.16 (as a +170 ML dog), but that came in Oakland. Given how good they have looked over the last week, the Astros are an automatic play in this price range. 8* Houston

10* Under Rays/Rangers (8:05 ET): Can't say there's been too many pitchers' duels here in Arlington this season, but that's where the Rays come in. Tampa Bay has given up the third fewest number of runs in all of MLB, which is why they are currently in position to make the playoffs. They'll turn to Ryan Yarbrough here and he's been every bit as hot as the team has been lately. But the Rangers counter w/ Lance Lynn and he's had a good year despite some less than desirable results of late. Texas comes in on a four-game win streak, having swept the Orioles in Baltimore over the weekend. 

Tampa Bay has won 5 straight and 10 out of its last 11, so they've already got to be feeling good before giving the ball to Yarbrough here. Yarbrough is not always used as a traditional starter, but will be here. He's made 10 starts in 2019 and has a 3.17 ERA and 0.796 WHIP. He has a 1.85 ERA and 0.588 WHIP in the five on the road. Overall, he's 11-3 with the team winning five of the last six games he's pitched. In that six-start stretch, Yarbrough has held opposing hitters to a .195 average and has a 2.25 ERA. Count on him to do his part tonight. 

As for Lynn, recent numbers are skewed by one bad starts, which came on the road and against the White Sox of all opponents. But he's allowed exactly 1 ER in four of his last seven starts. Eight of his last nine have gone Under. Back on 6.28, he faced this Tampa Bay team and turned in arguably his best start of the year as he delivered eight scoreless innings w/ 10 K's and allowing only three hits. Though it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, Lynn and the Rangers probably want to finish .500 for the year, so don't expect them to roll over here. 10* Under Rays/Rangers

10* Minnesota (7:40 ET): As pleased as I've been to see Washington rise back to prominance (they were on my most improved list for 2019), this is a bad matchup for them in Minnesota. The Nats didn't have a good weekend, dropping three of four in Atlanta, which effectively ended any chance they had of winning the NL East. We still believe they get into the playoffs as a Wild Card, but a second straight series against a division leader (on the road) is tough. This is an unfamiliar environment as well as it's park the franchise has NEVER played at (last visited Minnesota in 2008). 

It also wasn't a great weekend for the Twins, who similarly were facing their main competition from within the division. They lost two of three to the Indians, here at home, but w/ a 5.5 game lead they'll likely be in the playoffs as well. Interestingly, the Twins are 38-17 off a loss this season. They won the middle game of the Cleveland series, so that trend held. Over the last month, the AL Central leaders have dropped B2B games only one time. We all know what this team is capable of offensively as they entered the week tied w/ the Yankees for the highest runs per game average (5.8) in all of MLB. 

Looking at the pitching matchup, both starters are coming off rough outings. Washington's Anibal Sanchez gave up seven runs in five innings his last time out while Minnesota's Jose Berrios allowed six in five. Our view is that Berrios is the one more likely to bounce back. Yes, Sanchez had won his eight prior decisions before losing his last start, but this is the same pitcher who opened 2019 by going 0-6 his first eight starts. He gave up three home runs in that last start. Berrios, a two-time All Star, has allowed more than 3 ER in a start only three times since Memorial Day. Look for the Twins to beat the Nationals for the 1st time since 2013. 10* Minnesota

8* Atlanta (7:05 ET): What was a "meaningless" run to many proved costly to us last night here in Philly. Down 7-1 in the bottom of the ninth, the home team scored and that sent the game Over. We had the Under. Nevertheless, we don't get mad, we get even and that's what will do here w/ the Phillies. Atlanta has been red hot of late, winning 10 of their last 11 (only loss was Sunday). Meanwhile, Philadelphia is ready to fade. They've remained in the playoff hunt despite a negative YTD run differential. Last night showed that there's a big game between them and the Braves right now. It also helps Atlanta is 14-2 this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. 

There's a lot of hot starters in the Braves' rotation right now. Last night's starter Mike Foltynewicz now has a 10-0 TSR his L10 outings after last night's win. Tonight's starter Max Fried enters tonight w/ a 9-0 TSR his L9. He's 16-4 on the year and has a 0.722 WHIP his L3 times out. Overall, the team is 21-6 when he pitches, including 11-2 at home. Fried tossed seven shutout innings his last time out and allowed only one hit vs. Washington. He has 20 strikeouts and just one walk his L2 starts. Fried has made two starts against the Phillies in 2019 and the Braves have won both. 

Jason Vargas, who moved from one NL East team (Mets) to another has seen Atlanta plenty of times his career. But just once this year and it was all the way back in April. While that was a long time ago, it was also the shortest stint of the year. He got just one out and exited after allowing four runs. His work for the Phillies hasn't been all that impressive so far. He has a 6.46 ERA and 1.566 WHIP his L3 starts. These are two teams trending in very different directions. 8* Atlanta

6* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): Despite a negative YTD run differential, the Brewers have managed to stay in contention for the postseason. They just took three of four from the Cubs in a key series over the weekend. This next series, though on the road, shapes up to be much easier as it's against Miami. The Marlins have easily been the NL's worst team in 2019 as they have just 51 wins while being outscored by 173 runs. But don't look for the Brew Crew to take them lightly. In the only prior series between the teams this year, Miami took two of three including a 16-0 win. There's too much on the line here for Milwaukee to let that happen again. 

Ironically, Miami is off another big shutout victory Sunday as they beat the Royals 9-0. But all that did was allow them to avoid getting swept at home by a weak Interleague opponent. It was just the third win in the last nine games for the Fish, who have not posted B2B victories since late July! They are just 19-31 off a win for the entire season. Robert Duggar gets the start Monday, making just his fourth of his big league career. The 1st, which saw him give up six runs, did not go so well. But the last two has seen him allow just five total (three unearned) in 13 IP. But he's facing a stronger lineup tonight, which likely means trouble. 

We thought Jordan Lyles might be a questionable pickup at the trade deadline for Milwaukee, but he's turned into a bit of a revelation. The team has won each of the last four times he's started and Lyles is off a three-start stretch where his ERA and WHIP are 1.53 and 0.849 respectively! He's allowed just two runs in 17 2/3 IP (all at home) and that includes wins over division leaders Houston and St. Louis his last two times out! By comparison, Miami is a much weaker opponent and we don't see the Brew Crew having any difficulty taking this series opener. Milwaukee is 21-9 its L30 games vs. teams w/ a win percentage of .400 or below. 6* Milwaukee

10* Under Braves/Phillies (7:05 ET): Atlanta had been red hot (won 9 straight) before losing yday to Nationals 9-4. They're still very much in good shape for the postseason as they lengthened their lead in the NL East to nine games over the weekend. Speaking of the number nine, that's how many Mike Foltynewicz starts the Braves have won in a row. Foltynewicz has received ample run support during this time, but his team had gone Under in six straight before yday's loss. We look for this to be another low-scoring, division battle. Take the Under. 

Philadelphia is very much alive for the postseason, but we don't see them making it. They're a pretty mediocre ballclub. They did take two of three from the Mets over the weekend, winning in a 5-0 shutout Saturday and 10-7 on Sunday. We had the Under in Saturday's game, our top NL East total for September and that obviously came through. The offense really came alive yday, homering three times in what was a very long game. The Phillies relied heavily on their bullpen Sunday, using eight pitchers total, so it'll be important that they get a lot from tonight's starter. 

Fortunately, the starter for Monday will be Aaron Nola, who is already 3-0 this season vs. Atlanta. Nola is 12-4 overall in his L30 starts, but the team is 0-3 his L3. Yet two of those were still quality outings, including the only one here at Citizens Bank Park. Nola has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last three home starts. Foltynewicz threw five shutout innings his last start. Should be a "good ol' fashioned pitchers duel" tonight as the Braves are 17-5-1 their L23 series openers. 10* Under Braves/Phillies 

10* Under Phillies/Mets (7:15 ET): These NL East rivals are now tied at 72-68 following the Mets' 5-4 victory last night. We've been waiting for the Mets to pass the Phillies for some time now as they've got the better YTD run differential and pretty clearly have had the better second half of the season. Were it not for a six-game losing streak last month, the Mets' playoff odds would be in a lot better shape than they are now. Still, both of these clubs are just four games back of the Wild Card. Expect a "playoff-like" atmosphere tonight at Citi Field and for it to be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

It ended up being a wild finish last night as the Mets won the game on a basess loaded walk. This came after closer Edwin Diaz suffered a seventh blown save opportunity by giving up a pair of runs in the top half of the frame. The Mets had taken a 4-2 lead w/ a two-run eighth, so the starters definitely did their jobs yday (was a 2-2 game entering the bottom of the 8th). The same should hold true here as Marcus Stroman goes for the Mets and Drew Smyly for the Phillies. Stroman now has a 4-2 TSR since coming over from Toronto, though both losses came in the previous two starts. Smyly has a 4-1 TSR his L5 starts and did not face the Mets last weekend. 

Stroman did pitch in last weekend's series and while the Mets lost the game (5-2), it was actually his best effort since coming over. He went six innings and allowed just two runs. Stroman's last three starts have all stayed Under the total. The same holds true for Smyly, who just held Cincinnati to one run across 5 1/3 innings his last time out. The Mets have never faced him before and the Under is 9-1-1 their last 11 games vs. a southpaw starter. If watching this game on FS-1 tonight, don't expect many runs to be scored by either team. 10* Under Phillies/Mets

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): It's all gone wrong for the Indians of late as they could only manage a split of a four-game series (at home!) against the White Sox. That result leaves them currently on the outside looking in when it comes to a very tight AL Wild Card race w/ them, the Rays and A's. Right now, Cleveland is 1.5 games back of Tampa Bay and two back in the loss column of Oakland. Problem is both of those teams are at home this weekend facing weaker opponents. The Tribe has to hit the road to face first place Minnesota, who has won 10 of 12, including a thrilling game last night at Fenway Park. 

For awhile there, it appeared as if Cleveland was going to pass Minnesota in the AL Central. They did briefly grab the division lead, but the Twins have stormed back and now hold a 6.5 game advantage. Say what you will about their chances in the postseason, but Minnesota is legit w/ a +174 run differential (3rd best in MLB) and no team has scored more runs this season. They also have a red hot pitcher on the mound tonight in Michael Pineda, who is unbeaten over his last seven starts (5-0) and has a 0.944 WHIP over his last three. He has a 0.90 WHIP in two career starts vs. Cleveland, the last one coming back on March 31st where he tossed four shutout innings.

Cleveland has been hit by the injury bug at the worst possible time as both Jose Ramirez and Tyler Naquin are out of the lineup. They could manage just a single run in yday's loss to the White Sox and have scored just 14 runs in the past five road games. That's not going to be enough against a team averaging almost 6.0 rpg for the season. Adam Plutko starts here for the Indians and he's off a rough showing LW in Tampa where he gave up four runs in just 4 1/3 IP. It was his worst showing since facing this Twins team on August 10th where he also allowed four runs. Target Field doesn't seem like the place where Cleveland will turn things around. 8* Minnesota

10* Under Nationals/Braves (7:20 ET): Both of these NL East teams are likely to make the playoffs, it's just a question of who wins the division at this point. Washington came into this series knowing it may need a sweep to have any realistic chance of catching the Braves, but now that's out the window after a 4-2 loss last night. That leaves them eight back of the Braves, who have now won seven in a row. Still, expect a "playoff-like" atmosphere at SunTrust Park Friday as we've got an excellent pitching matchup (battle of lefties) and I'm calling for an Under here. 

Patrick Corbin is working on a string of five straight quality outings for Washington. Going back, 12 of his last 14 starts have been quality ones w/ one of the two exceptions coming against this Atlanta team as he only allowed two runs, but only went five innings. That game, a 4-3 Nationals' loss, stayed Under the total. So did Corbin's next start vs. the Braves, a 6-3 win at home. He was opposed that day by Dallas Keuchel, the same pitcher he'll square off against tonight. The Under is 9-3 in Corbin's L12 starts overall. He's 6-1 w/ a 1.96 ERA in his career vs. Atlanta. 

Keuchel cannot claim that kind of success vs. Washington, but what he can claim are some outstanding recent numbers. His last four starts have seen him go 3-0 w/ a 1.08 ERA. He's allowed only three runs in 25 IP. This was quite the savvy mid-season pickup by the Braves, who have gone 5-2 w/ Keuchel on the mound at home. He's got a 2.38 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in those starts. Overall, the Braves' last four games have all gone Under. Their pitching has held opponents to a .211 batting average over the last week. 10* Under Nationals/Braves

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): Coming into the season, I didn't think there was any way that the Orioles could have a repeat of last year's dreadful 47-win campaign. So here we are w/ a month left to go in the season and they are one win away from matching LY's total. Can't say we've played the O's too many times in 2019, but they get a rare endorsement tonight at home vs. Texas. While they did lose 3-1 last night, it's highly unlikely that they'll go 0 for 13 w/ RISP again and tonight's starting pitching matchup certainly seems to work in their favor. Baltimore matches LY's win total tonight! 

Dylan Bundy has been one of Baltimore's more reliable starters during this tough era. He has a 9-17 TSR this year, but pitched pretty well in August and more importantly has a 1.61 ERA in six career appearances vs. Texas. Bundy's last four starts at home have all seen him allow 2 ER or less. Right now, the Rangers' offense is struggling as they've managed just five runs total the L3 games and had only five hits in yday's win. Eight of the last 10 games have seen the Rangers get held to three runs or fewer. Note this could be just the 2nd time all year Baltimore closes at -125 or higher on the ML, which certainly says something about the matchup. 

Little known Brock Burke gets the start tonight for Texas. He's actually off to a decent start to his big league career w/ a 1.50 ERA after three starts. But he still has yet to win a decision. Once again, he doesn't figure to get much help from his offense, which has scored a total of just six runs in his three previous starts. Texas is 1-10 its last 11 games after allowing 2 runs or less. They are also just 11-23 their L34 road games. All four games these teams have played this year have been close. This time Baltimore wins. 8* Baltimore

10* Under Tigers/Royals (1:15 ET): So we won w/ the Royals last night as they came from behind to win 5-4. They now go for a series sweep on Thursday afternoon, but unlike yday won't have the starting pitching matchup squarely in their favor. In fact, they go from big favorites on the money line to underdogs today as they face the Tigers' best pitcher Matthew Boyd. The Royals are forced to send out Glenn Sparkman, who has an 0-8 team start record his last eight outings. But, in the end, look for this to be a low-scoring game between two bad teams. Take the Under.

Boyd has done his best pitching for a horrendous team, but the numbers we ran through in yesterday's story paint a grim picture of what he's up against. The Tigers have now been outscored by 272 runs this season and have just 40 wins in 137 games played. A big reason they have the worst run differential in the sport is that they have scored fewer runs than everyone else. In fact, with the exception of one team (Miami), every other team has scored at least 86 more runs than the Tigers this season. Sparkman has never started against them, but has a 2.84 ERA in two relief appearances.

Boyd will give his team the proverbial "fighting chance" though as he comes in w/ a 1.176 WHIP in 28 starts. He's off a couple of rough outings against Minnesota, but the Twins are one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Kansas City isn't much higher than Detroit offensively as they rank 27th in runs scored. Boyd has seen each of his last five starts go Over, but that streak ends here. Sparkman has a quite respectable 1.083 WHIP at home this season. The Royals had gone Over in six straight before yday, so now it's time for an Under or two to roll in. 10* Under Tigers/Royals

8* Over Phillies/Reds (12:35 ET): Cincinnati finally broke through in this series, winning last night by a score of 8-5. Thus, they got to avoid the embarrassing situation of potentially being swept in a four-game series at home. Things wrap up w/ Philly early Thursday afternoon and the Reds find themselves back as a favorite on the money line, a role that saw them LOSE each of the first two games. (Ironically, they won as a ML dog yday). I got burned by them earlier in the series, so I hesitate to jump back on, but where I don't hesitate here is with the Over. 

The Reds are actually the top Under team in baseball right now. That makes sense as they are just 22nd in runs scored vs. 8th in runs allowed. But they were able to win a high-scoring game yday after scoring only three runs in the first two games combined. They actually surpassed that number in the first two innings of last night's game, jumping out to a 5-0 lead. Expect them to find more success today against Jason Vargas, who has struggled of late - big time. Vargas has a 6.32 ERA and 1.787 WHIP his L3 starts after giving up five runs in just four innings vs. the Mets (former team) his last time out. His resume against the Reds isn't very good as either as his ERA is 6.30 in five career starts. 

Now the starter for the Reds on Thursday, Sonny Gray, does have an outstanding recent resume. He's 5-0 his last seven starts w/ a 1.50 ERA and 1.095 WHIP. It's important to note the two games he did not win were both blown saves. Despite the fact that the Reds do have good pitching, the Phillies have averaged six runs per game in this series. When Gray faced them earlier in the year, he allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings. While Gray has been mostly successful of late, he does still walk a lot of hitters. Two starts ago, he walked five. As Gray knows all too well, the Reds' bullpen has been a problem w/ one of the worst ERA's (5.06) in all of MLB. 8* Over Phillies/Reds

6* Kansas City (8:15 ET): If you're shocked by how much juice you have to lay to play the Royals tonight, don't be. Obviously, it has to be a weak opponent and really they come no weaker than the Tigers, who are on pace to get outscored by 300 runs this year! To put that number in proper perspective, consider that even LY's historically bad Orioles team (47 wins) was outscored by "only" 270 runs. The Tigers surpassed that number (now -271 in run differential) w/ last night's 6-5 loss here at Kauffman Stadium. They have the dubious distinction of also having the worst record in all of MLB (40-96) as there's a good chance they finish WORSE than the Orioles of 2018. Definitely take Kansas City here. 

Believe it or not, but the Royals "should" have a better record. Their run differential, while poor (-149) is roughly the same as the 61-77 White Sox. Thus, the fact the Royals have just 50 wins is a tad bit misleading. Obviously, one has underachieved while the other has overachieved, but both the White Sox and Royals have played to the level of a 54-win team. This will be the 1st time all season that KC is higher than -175 on the money line. They are 3-1 in that role the previous two seasons.

Detroit has lost 9 of 10 and will send Edwin Jackson to the mound tonight. He is not a good bet to "stop the bleeding." Jackson has terrible numbers this year as his ERA is 9.35 and his WHIP is 1.962. Things have only gotten worse for him recently w/ a 11.68 ERA and 2.433 WHIP his L3 starts. In B2B starts vs. the Twins, he allowed 14 runs in 7 1/3 IP. Last night's walk-off victory was KC's 3rd in a row as they've taken advantage of hosting the two worst teams in baseball (Baltimore, Detroit). They send Jakob Junis to the bump on Wednesday and Junis has had plenty of success in the past against the Tigers w/ a 7-1 record, 3.18 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 10 starts. That's his most wins and strikeouts against any opponent. KC rolls here. 6* Kansas City

10* Over Angels/A's (10:07 ET): For the 2nd weekend in a row, things did not go the A's way as they again lost both Saturday and Sunday. Dropping a couple games to the Yankees (in New York) is certainly forgivable (I had the Yanks Saturday), but Oakland can't afford to be losing games right now as they are locked in a very tight race for the Wild Card w/ Cleveland and Tampa Bay. Those three teams are separated by just one game w/ the A's now on the "outside looking in." Thankfully for them, Tuesday's matchup definitely looks to be in their favor, particularly in the starting pitching department. That said, it's the Over I'm going w/ in this series opener against the division rival Angels. 

Los Angeles is not in playoff contention as they instead continue to live in their perpetual state of mediocrity. Right now, they are a season-worst eight games below .500, so either they are going to be a dangerous out for Oakland, or simply "roll over." When it comes to the offense, I expect the Angels to continue to produce. They come in averaging a healthy 5.0 rpg and had scored 16 runs against the Red Sox Friday & Saturday before getting held to only three on Sunday. Not only is the Over 7-3 in their last 10 meetings w/ the A's, it is 11-4 their L15 games here in Oakland. 

I mentioned the starting pitching matchup earlier and how it does look to be firmly in the A's favor. Michael Fiers has a 7-0 TSR his L7 starts w/ a 2.72 ERA, although his 1.209 WHIP doesn't exactly signal dominance. Fiers has been dominant at home this year, but the only two times he's faced the Angels were on the road. He has a 4.84 ERA in 13 previous appearances against them. For the Halos, Jaime Barria has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts and the last four have all been on the road. Barria has not faced the A's yet this year. Both of these teams are more than capable of "bringing the offense" and after a relatively low-scoring series w/ the Yankees, look for the A's to "tee off" against Barria and the Angels. 10* Over Angels/A's

8* Houston (7:40 ET): I've been waiting for awhile to see Milwaukee's playoff hopes get "put to rest" and this might finally be the series where that happens. They Brew Crew are matched up w/ Houston, who has come a long way since these teams were division rivals. The Astros are, for my money, the best team in the American League (even though they have the same record as the Yankees). They beat the Brewers last night here at Miller Park, 3-2 in 11 innings, which was their ninth win in the L11 games. They'll send Zack Greinke to the mound tonight, giving them an obvious advantage there.

Greinke hasn't exactly been dominant since coming over from Arizona, but the Astros have won four of his five starts for them. The loss came his last time out, against Tampa Bay, the second time Greinke allowed five runs while wearing an Astros' uniform. But the "catch" is both of those starts came at home. He's actually been a better pitcher on the road this season, which may not be in line w/ his career numbers, but we'll take it anyway. In 15 road starts, Greinke has a 2.74 ERA and 0.957 WHIP. He's 8-3 in those 15 starts and while his TSR is a misleading 8-7 in those games, all four no-decisions that were losses came when he was still w/ Arizona. 

Milwaukee counters w/ Jordan Lyles, who was also a trade deadline acquisition, albeit a far more questionable one from the Pirates. Lyles has pitched significantly better for the Brewers (his TSR is 5-1), but he'll be "up against it" today facing an Astros lineup that has averaged 7.25 runs over its L8 games. It's been a low-scoring last couple of days for the 'Stros, not that they've needed much scoring considering how Justin Verlander (no-hitter) and Gerrit Cole pitched. Greinke has a 16-4 record all-time at Miller Park from his time w/ the Brewers and should be the latest example of how the Astros have the best rotation in baseball heading into the postseason. 8* Houston

8* Over Astros/Brewers (7:40 ET): Despite the presence of Greinke on the mound, I also like this game to go Over the total on Tuesday. What's perhaps most interesting about this game is that each starter used to pitch for the other team. At the end of the analysis on the side, I mentioned all the success Greinke had here in Milwaukee as a member of the Brewers. Well, Lyles used to pitch for the Astros. He should quickly find out that it's better to have them as teammates than opponents. 8* Over Astros/Brewers

7* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): This is a battle of last place teams in the National League, but one is clearly better and also playing (arguably) its best baseball of the season right now. Pittsburgh is coming off a four-game sweep of Colorado, on the road, and now gets to return home to face a Miami team that has easily been the NL's worst team all year long. The Marlins were just swept in their last series (in Washington) running their road losing streak to 15 games. It's a streak that dates all the way back to late July! They've lost 13 of their last 16 games overall. That leads me to this rare endorsement of the Pirates Tuesday night. 

Miami has been outscored by 177 runs this year, easily the worst differential in the Senior Circuit as they have scored an NL-low 502 runs themselves. That's more than 100 fewer than every other team. It's not like their pitching has been great either. Over the weekend, they allowed 23 runs in three games to the Nationals and eight home runs. Tonight's starter Sandy Alcantara has not only seen the team lose each of his L3 starts, but the Marlins were shut out in two of the losses. Alcantara is just 4-12 on the year and going back to April the team has dropped 18 of his last 24 starts. 

Pittsburgh should take full advantage of Miami's woes as they come off a series in which they scored 37 runs in four games. Yes, that was at Coors Field, but perhaps equally as impressive was the fact they got three quality starts in Denver and allowed just 18 runs. Tuesday starter Mitch Keller gets a break here in facing the weak Miami lineup. Keller has a 2.45 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in his only two previous starts here at PNC Park, so he should bounce back from the rough outing last week in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, I expect the Pirates' hitters to keep up the torrid pace as the last two home games, they went for 23 runs. Overall, the Bucs have won 8 of 10. 7* Pittsburgh

10* Arizona (4:10 ET): For being division rivals (NL West), these teams sure haven't played in awhile. It was back in May when they last met and the Padres pulled off a three-game sweep in San Diego. It's been a frustrating season for the D'backs, but they're still a better team than the Padres and should easily be able to exact some revenge here. Plus, the D'backs come into this one playing as well as they have all season long. They've won six of seven w/ the lone loss coming yday in extra innings (to the Dodgers). I've said it before, but Arizona is actually better than its record (70-67) as they've outscored opponents by 68 runs over the course of the season. That's a comparable differential to both the Cardinals and Cubs! 

Back when San Diego swept the D'backs back in late May they were on their way to a 28-24 start, which included a 7-3 record vs. Arizona. Since then, the Padres have gone just 36-48. They come off a successful series in San Francisco where they took three of four. But my view on the Giants (overrated!) is overstated at this point. The Padres winning three straight games doesn't happen often. In fact, it's happened just twice since the Break. 

I'm somewhat stunned that the money line isn't higher for Monday. Padres' starter Cal Quantrill has a 7.47 ERA his L3 starts. The team is just 5-9 his L14 starts overall. Last time out was his worst start of the year, allowing eight runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-0 loss to the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Mike Leake threw 7 1/3 innings his last time out for Arizona and allowed just two runs in a win over the Giants. Leake has a 7-3 record at home. Like Quantrill, he's yet to start a game in this NL West rivalry this year. The D'backs nearly just swept a four-game series from the Dodgers over the weekend. They can certainly beat San Diego. 10* Arizona

8* Cincinnati (2:10 ET): The Reds are a team that just got done playing two doubleheaders in the last two days. They lost three of the four games, winning only the second yesterday. I actually faded them in the first where St. Louis ended up coming back to break their hearts, 4-3, scoring in each of the final three innings. Two of the Reds' three losses over the weekend came in the final at-bat. Back them today, however, as they're at home and facing an inferior opponent. The Phillies just got done playing the Sunday Night Game (on ESPN) where they avoided a sweep by beating the Mets. So it's a short turnaround for both teams. 

Having the home field edge is big for the Reds. They are 37-31 at Great American Ballpark as opposed to 27-42 on the road. The recent swoon (lost 7 of 11) has as much to do w/ all those games being played on the road. Then there's this: Cincinnati has actually outscored its opponents this year (+14) despite a 64-73 record. Philadelphia is 70-65, but has been outscored by 14 runs on the season. So there's an arguement to made that the Reds are the better team. That's why we're taking them! 

Anthony DeSclafani starts the opener for Cincy, looking for his 10th win of the season. He has a 3.19 ERA at home and has been really sharp of late w/ a 1.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his L3 starts overall. During that time, he's given up just 2 ER on 12 hits in 18 IP. He threw seven shutout innings his last start. Philly counters w/ Drew Smyly, whose numbers haven't been particularly impressive dating back to his time w/ Texas. He's made seven starts for the Phillies and has a 4.97 ERA and 1.368 WHIP. He's won just one decision in those seven starts. The Phils are 27-53 their L80 games as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, including 4-13 this season. 8* Cincinnati

10* Colorado (3:10 ET): You don't see a road team sweeping a four-game series very often and of all the teams you'd think capable of pulling it off, the Pirates would (and should!) probably be near the bottom of the list. Especially at Coors Field no less! The Rockies' once-vaunted homefield edge seems to have disappaited some here in 2019 as they shockingly have gone just .500 (34-34) here at Coors. But I can't see them being swept this weekend, even though this series has clearly not gone well for them so far. I love this as a "sell high" spot on Pittsburgh, who has failed to win the L3 times they've been on a three-game win streak. In fact, they have just ONE win streak of more than three games since April! 

It was months ago that I said you should sell on the Pirates, who were masquerading as a .500 team despite a poor run differential. I predicted they would sink to the bottom of the NL Central and that's exactly what's transpired as they've gone just 15-32 since the Break. Keep in mind that includes the three wins in this series. They usually give up a lot of runs, so I'm really quite shocked that Colorado's offense hasn't performed better in this series. Steven Brault will start Sunday's finale for the Bucs and while he's having a decent enough season, his 9.00 ERA in two previous appearances vs. the Rockies should definitely give some pause. The Bucs had lost six straight Brault starts before winning his last one, 5-4 at Philadelphia. 

Jeff Hoffman has mainly been a "spot starter" for Colorado this year and admittedly most of those "spots" haven't gone well. Nor have the L10 games gone well for the Rockies as they're just 1-9 overall. But I still believe in the spot they're in Sunday, that being trying to avoid a 4-game sweep at home. As rough as things have been, Hoffman and the Rockies find a way to win today. 10* Colorado

6* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Indians were the hottest team in baseball for awhile, but have run into the proverbial "brick wall" here in Tampa Bay, losing 4-0 Friday and 9-6 Saturday. In an ultra-tight Wild Card race, the losses have proven costly. It's a three-team race w/ the Indians' advantage now down to just one-half game over both the Rays and A's entering Sunday. The Tribe have also sustained two key injuries during the last week, one to Jose Ramirez and the other to Tyler Nayquin. Jason Kipnis also left yday's game w/ a wrist injury. They're sizable underdogs on the money line Sunday afternoon and unfortunately, I see this being another loss for them at Tropicana Field. 

Given the way this series has gone so far, Cleveland would hate to have to make a return visit for the Wild Card Game. The Rays actually have a better record on the road than they do at home, but as Cleveland has found out (the hard way), it's tough to score against TB pitching. Even when they did put six runs on the board yday, they still lost. That's bad news as they are highly unlikely to score that many again today facing Charlie Morton, who has gone 13-6 in 28 starts for the Rays this season. Morton's numbers are better at home as he has a 2.68 ERA and 0.942 WHIP. 

The Rays have taken five of the six meetings w/ the Indians this season and yesterday's game was actually the first time that the Indians scored more than three runs. Cleveland has now lost seven of its last eight road games that weren't played in Detroit. Adam Plutko faces a lot of pressure in Sunday's start and while he's having a decent year, his worst start to date came against the Rays on May 23rd when he allowed 7 runs and 12 hits in just 5 1/3 IP. 6* Tampa Bay

8* St. Louis (1:05 ET): It's the second day in a row that the Reds & Cardinals play a doubleheader here at Busch Stadium. The home team swept yday, winning by scores of 10-6 and 3-2. That has to be quite demoralizing for a Reds team that may be underrated, but is also playing out the string at this point. This is a play on the FIRST game of Sunday's doubleheader. The Cards are a hot team right now as they've surged to the top of the NL Central by winning 17 of their last 21 games. Make it one more win this afternoon as they take the opener of this day-night twinbill. 

While Sunday's starter Miles Mikolas is 0-3 w/ a 6.43 ERA in four previous starts vs. the Reds this year, St. Louis still looks to have a decided edge in this first game. First off, three of those four Mikolas starts came away from home (two in Cincinnati, one in Mexico). Mikolas is a different pitcher here in the Gateway City as he owns a 2.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 13 starts. The team is also now 42-24 at home following yday's sweep. His last time out, Mikolas pitched quite well (at Milwaukee), as he went six innings and allowed just one run on four hits while striking out 10. 

Day games haven't gone too well for the Reds this year as they're just 17-34 in them this season. They are also 26-41 on the road and have lost six of their last nine games overall. For Game 1 of this doubleheader, they've recalled Tyler Mahle, who was originally slated to start yday. Mahle has battled injuries and inconsistency in 2019 and will be making his first big league start since July 19th. The Reds have lost the L5 times he's started. He has a 7.84 ERA in two prior starts vs. St. Louis this year and his minor league stint didn't exactly go too well either w/ him allowing 14 runs in 9 2/3 IP. Only three teams have allowed fewer runs this season than the Cardinals have and Cincinnati is only 23rd in all of MLB in runs scored. 8* St. Louis

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): Needless to say, the Yankees losing last night - by a score of 8-2 no less - really shocked me. They came into this series not only armed w/ revenge, but also one of the best home field advantages in the sport. They also had the scheduling advantage coming off an off day while Oakland didn't have any time off between series. Nevertheless, the A's were able to run their YTD mark to 4-0 vs. NY. For them, that qualifies as a bit of revenge for losing LY's Wild Card Game in this stadium. But it's the Yankees turn to exact some revenge Saturday as I'm sticking with them in what looks - on paper - to be a more lopsided matchup (in their favor) than yday. 

The Yankees had an early 2-1 lead Friday, but starter CC Sabathia had to be pulled due to a reoccurence of his ongoing knee issue. That was too bad b/c Sabathia had been sharp in his three innings of work. The only hit allowed was a solo HR by Jurickson Profar. We're going to count on Domingo German to get the job done Saturday afternoon as he enters this game w/ 16-3 record in 22 starts (18-4 TSR) including dominant numbers here at home (2.32 ERA, 0.994 WHIP). His only loss in his L10 starts came against the A's back on 8.20, so the revenge angle happens to be "personal" for him as well. 

I just can't see the Yankees dropping to 0-5 against the A's this season. They are still 49-22 at home this season, including 22-5 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Last night was a very "un-Yankee like" performance at the plate as it was the first time in 12 games they failed to hit a home run and their L16 batters were all sent down in order. Expect MLB's highest scoring team to bounce back tonight as they're 28-18 off a loss this season and 19-7 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. A's starter Homer Bailey might be 6-2 since coming over from the Royals, but he has a 5.52 ERA as well and is ripe to get "beaten up" here. On the road, Bailey has a 6.05 ERA and 1.442 WHIP. 8* NY Yankees

10* Under Mariners/Rangers (8:05 ET): These two AL West also-rans are just playing out the string at this point. Of course, there was a time very early in the season when Seattle was feeling much better about itself. They were 13-2 after 15 games, but I cautioned to sell high and sure enough they've gone just 44-76 ever since. The promise of a decent season in Arlington lasted a little longer as the Rangers were eight games over .500 on July 12th. But they've gone just 15-28 ever since and thus we've got a pretty meaningless series on our hands this weekend. Seattle took the opener Thursday night, 5-3, and I expect another relatively low-scoring game tonight. Take the Under.

It may seem strange to bet the Under w/ two less than stellar starters and the game taking place at Globe Life Park. Rangers' home games are averaging 11.2 runs per game this season and Seattle is 76-49-10 to the Over in all games in 2019. But it's both a high number and a battle of lefties Friday night, elements conducive to an Under. The Under is 6-1 in the Rangers' previous seven games as they've averaged just 2.3 rpg while hitting a collective .164. The Mariners haven't done much better in the same stretch, averaging 3.9 rpg w/ a team batting average of .196. 

Texas has been held to four runs or fewer in 9 of its last 10 games. So that's good news for Mariners' starter Marco Gonzales, who is not only coming off a quality start vs. Toronto, but also held the Rangers to two runs in seven innings the last time he faced them. That was a little over a month ago, in Seattle, and note Gonzales' lone start in this ballpark in 2019 produced a nearly identical statline. Back in April, he threw seven shutout innings against the Rangers at home. Texas' Kolby Allard threw six shutout innings in his last start (against the White Sox) and has the advantage w/ the Mariners never having faced him before. Note that more than half (5) of the total runs scored in yday's game came on plays that were NOT hits. 10* Under Mariners/Rangers

10* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): This price seems way too low on the Yankees given a) they are at home where they've gone 49-20 this season and b) they have revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered out in Oakland last week. After being swept out in Oakland, the Yanks finished the road trip by going 5-1, the only loss coming to the Dodgers. They just finished their own sweep (of Seattle) earlier this week and not like they need it, but another advantage NY has coming into this game is they had Thursday off while the A's were in Kansas City. Getting back to the subject of price, the Yankees are 22-4 this season when priced between -125 and -175 on the ML! 

Perhaps the reason for the Yankees being so well-priced here has to do w/ starter CC Sabathia. We'll get to the "hefty lefty" in a minute, but first note that Oakland starter Brett Anderson has been no better of late. Anderson sports the same 0-3 TSR his L3 starts and while two of those were opposite Madison Bumgarner and Zack Greinke, last time out he lost as a -155 favorite to the Giants at home. What's most unimpressive about Anderson is his low strikeout numbers. The most batters he's struck out in any start this season is five and overall he has only 76 K's in 150 IP this season. He's 1-4 w/ a 4.93 ERA his L6 starts and perhaps worst of all is his career record vs the Yankees, which is 0-6 w/ a 6.86 ERA in eight outings. 

Admittedly, Sabathia has struggled himself of late. In two starts since returning from the DL, he's lasted a combined seven innings. But he's got the better team behind him here. Also, at home, Sabathia has a 7-2 TSR w/ a very respectable 3.19 ERA. He nor Anderson pitched in last week's series. Oakland has gone just 3-3 since sweeping the Yanks and those games were against the lowly Royals and Giants. This price is just too good to pass up. 10* NY Yankees

10* San Diego (9:45 ET): We've been advocating fading the Giants for some time now. They just lost a pair of games here at home to Arizona, which dropped them back below .500 for the year. After a rare off day (Wednesday), the Giants now turn to hosting the Padres, who also have lost six of their last eight games. The Padres played last night and lost in 10 innings to the Dodgers. While the schedule may put them at a slight disadvantage coming into this series, that's more than made up by tonight's pitching matchup, which greatly favors San Diego. Let's continue fading an overrated Giants team! 

If you're "new to the program," the reason I've been so adamant about fading San Francisco has to do w/ their YTD run differential. Masquerading as a .500 team, the Giants have actually been outscored by 53 runs this season. That differential is indicative of a team that "should" be 12 games under .500 at this point of the season. The reason the Giants' record is better than it has any right to be is that they are 30-14 in one-run games (also 12-2 in extras). But they got a taste of their own medicine Tuesday, losing to the D'backs 3-2. 

Earlier, I mentioned the pitching matchup for tonight and how it favors the Padres. Chris Paddack will be on bump and while he was roughed up (by Boston) his last time out, he's turned in a good year for San Diego w/ a 1.031 WHIP in 22 starts. The Giants turn to Dereck Rodriguez and he's actually lost all four of his starts here at home. As a team, the Giants actually play worse at AT&T Park as they're 29-35 and average just 3.4 rpg. San Francisco has had its way w/ San Diego this year (won 7 of L8 meetings), but not here. 10* San Diego

10* Under A's/Royals (8:10 ET): We tried this play in Monday's opener and that didn't work out so well as Oakland achieved season-highs in both runs (19) and hits (23). However, last night's game was more along the lines of what we were looking for as it was only a 2-1 game, again won by the A's. Currently locked into a tight battle with the Indians and Rays for the AL Wild Card, this is a series Oakland desperately needed to sweep and now they have a chance to move closer to that goal before wrapping things up here in KC tomorrow. But it's back to the Under for tonight as this should be another low scoring game. 

Oakland got all of its offense in the first two innings last night and finished w/ only five hits. So it was a very different win from Monday. We probably need not worry about Kansas City doing much damage at the plate tonight as they've scored only five runs in the series and 62 runs the 21 games vs. the A's (less than 3.0 rpg). Starting for Oakland tonight will be Tanner Roark, who has a 2.63 ERA in his first three starts here since being dealt from Cincinnati (Under is 3-0). The Royals have gone Under in six of their last eight games overall and been held to just one run in half of those games. 

In the last 15 games at Kauffman Stadium, the A's have allowed just 39 total runs. They are 19-5 against the entire AL Central this season, giving up just 73 runs. So again, it seems highly unlikely that they'll allow more than three runs tonight.  So it basically boils down to how Jake Junis does against the A's lineup. Junis did struggle in his last start for the Royals, but had been quite effective prior to that w/ three consecutive quality starts. In fact, six of Junis' previous eight starts had been quality outings w/ the Under going 6-2. 10* Under A's/Royals

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): I can't say I'm surprised that the Reds have won the first two games of this series. They swept Miami earlier in the year (at home) and are actually a pretty underrated ballclub. Despite spending the entirety of the year below .500, they've had a positive scoring differential. Note the team directly ahead of them in the NL Central (Milwaukee) actually has a -42 run differential. Run differential basically says the Brewers and Reds should swap records. As for the Marlins, they've been the worst team in the National League all season. Look for the Reds to make it three in a row tonight. 

Something you may not know about the Reds is that they've gotten some of the best pitching in all of baseball this year. They've allowed the 4th fewest runs in the National League and 8th fewest in MLB overall. Miami certainly hasn't been able to solve their pitching this year, scoring just nine runs in five losses. Five of those runs came yday. That makes sense as the Marlins are the lowest scoring team in the NL. This all bodes well for Wednesday starter Anthony DeSclafani, who is off back to back solid showings. He held the Cardinals and Pirates to just two runs in 11 IP. This will be his 1st time facing Miami, his former team, in 2019. 

With the Marlins' offensive woes likely to continue, they'll need a solid effort from Wednesday starter Sandy Alcantara. But that may be hard to come by as the All-Star is winless since the Break and has a 2-8 TSR his L10 starts overall. Now he has been pretty sharp of late, but poor run support has doomed him. He allowed just two runs in seven innings at Colorado on 8.16, but his offense couldn't even score a single run at Coors Field. Then last time out, he allowed just an unearned run, but again the offense failed to come through in a 3-2 loss to Atlanta. I'm afraid it will be more of the same here as the Reds seems to have the Marlins' number. 10* Cincinnati

8* Under Yankees/Mariners (4:10 ET): We all know what the Yankees are capable offensively, but they've also limited Seattle to just four runs the last two days. The Under is now 4-0 in the Yanks' last four games as they go for the sweep Wednesday afternoon. Remember when the Mariners were 13-2? I said "don't buy it" and sure enough they have cratered ever since, going 42-75 overall. It certainly looks like the Yankees are poised to sweep this series seeing as they are 14-2 their L16 games as a road favorite of -175 or more while the Mariners are just 1-7 as a home dog of +175 or more. But I believe that the Under is still the better bet here.

James Paxton will go for the Yanks this afternoon. His last four starts have all gone Over, but that's because of run support not anything he's guilty of. In fact, Paxton has given up just 10 runs total in those four starts and he was incredibly impressive his last time out w/ 11 K's against the Dodgers while allowing only two runs on five hits. Seattle, who was just shutout for the eighth time this season, is hitting .218 as a team over the last week. This is an ideal matchup for the former Mariner, who is very familiar w/ pitching in this park. Overall, Paxton has a 1.05 WHIP in August.

Ironically, Paxton will be opposed here by a pitcher he was traded for this past offseason. Justus Sheffield was one of three prospects Seattle acquired when they sent Paxton to the Bronx. The M's certainly are hoping for a better return than what they got from Sheffield's first start as he allowed three runs in four innings last week vs. Toronto. I know facing the Yankees won't be easy, but look for Sheffield to mitigate the damage, resulting in another low-scoring game between these two teams. 8* Under Yankees/Mariners

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels come into this series having dropped five straight as well as six of their last seven games. The weekend saw them get swept in Houston and before that they dropped 3 of 4 to Monday's opponent, Texas. But that series was in Arlington and now it's a chance for revenge as the Halos gets to play host. This change in home field advantage should prove to be a difference maker as the Rangers go from 38-27 at Globe Life Park to just 26-41 on the road. Tonight's starting pitching matchup also looks to be in favor of the home team, so I'm siding w/ them in the series opener. 

Since returning from the DL, Andrew Heaney has been outstanding for the Angels, posting a 3-0 TSR w/ a 2.41 ERA and 0.643 WHIP. The team has actually won each of Heaney's last four starts going back to before his time spent on the DL. Heaney's last start was not only his best of the season (and maybe career?), but also the Angels' lone win in the series at Arlington. He struck out 14 (w/ no walks) over 8 IP and allowed just one run on four hits in a 5-1 victory. Heaney did end up throwing 100+ pitches in the start, so manager Brad Ausmus decided to give him a couple extra days off. He'll be working on six days rest tonight. The Angels are 11-4 in Heaney's L15 starts at home, including 6-1 vs. sub-.500 foes. 

Mike Minor is having a nice season, but ironically his last start (which came against the Angels) was probably his worst of 2019. It was a game that Texas certainly did not deserve to win, but did 8-7. Minor allowed seven of those runs, on 10 hits, and lasted only 5 2/3 innings. His teammates bailed him out by scoring four runs over the final three frames, including a walk-off single in the final at-bat. All three Texas wins in that series came in the final at-bat, two of them in extra innings, so it was not any kind of dominant performance by them. With Heaney on the mound, the Angels get some revenge here. 10* LA Angels

8* Over Twins/White Sox (8:10 ET): I think at this point of the season we need to accept the fact that Minnesota is averaging 6.2 runs per game on the road. That's a really high number (tied w/ the Yankees for 1st in all of MLB) as no team last year averaged more than 5.4 rpg on the road. Overall, the Twins lead all of baseball in the number of runs scored per game this season. That's why they have a top four run differential in the sport right now and have a 3.5 game lead in their division. Even though they'll be facing the White Sox best starter (Lucas Giolito) tonight, I think we'll be seeing another strong effort at the plate from the AL Central leaders. 

Now last Wednesday saw Giolito dominate this Twins lineup in what he called "the best I've ever felt pitching in my life." Giolito allowed just three hits in a CG shutout w/ 12 strikeouts (and no walks). But this will be the fourth time the Twins have faced him in 2019. Look for greater success this time around as the last time they faced Giolito in this park, they scored seven times against him in only 5 IP. Though they did not sweep the Tigers, Twins just scored 21 runs in their last series (three games) and they have scored at least six runs in 6 of the last 10 games. 

Michael Pineda will go here for Minnesota. He was the beneficiary of some tremendous run support in his last outing, which was against Chicago, as the Twins won that game 14-4. Pineda allowed all four runs as he gave up two home runs. His start before that saw the Twins score 13 runs. He won't need that many this time around (though it would be nice!) as he figures to give up a fair share on the road. The Over is 3-0 in Pineda's last three starts and this will also be his fourth start of the season against tonight's opponent. Familiarity may breed contempt, but in this instance it breeds an Over! 8* Over Twins/White Sox

8* Under Rays/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston starter Justin Verlander figures to be in a surly mood tonight after what happened in his last outing. You may have heard that the Astros suffered a historic loss as they closed at -520 on the money line, but fell 2-1. Facing his former team, Verlander went the distance and allowed only two hits, but both were solo home runs. Incredibly, the Astros are 0-3 in Verlander's last three starts despite him posting a 0.762 WHIP. I have no doubt Verlander will pitch well again here in what promises to be another low-scoring game. Take the Under.

Tampa Bay has actually done a slightly better job than Houston at run suppression this year. They've allowed the fewest runs in the American League (Houston #3) and the second fewest overall (Dodgers). That's the primary reason why the Rays enter the day tied w/ Oakland for the final Wild Card spot in the AL. Tuesday's starter Charlie Morton is having a really good year for them w/ a 2.85 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 26 starts. Though he had only 3 K's his last time out, he totaled 20 in his previous two (13 IP) w/ zero walks. Morton is quite familiar w/ pitching at Minute Maid Park having been a part of the Astros for the previous two seasons. Like Verlander, expect him to pitch well tonight. 

These teams actually opened the season against one another. In a precursor to their season-long "stinginess," all four games in that series went Under. They haven't met since. None of the four game saw more than six total runs scored. Verlander allowed one run and three hits in his start (5-1 Houston win) while Morton allowed two runs on three hits in his (4-2 TB win). Should be a similar type game tonight as the Under is 6-1 in Verlander's last seven starts overall plus 19-7-2 in the Rays' last 28 road games vs. a team w/ a .600 or better win percentage at home. 8* Under Rays/Astros

analysis soon

10* Arizona (9:45 ET): By now, you should know my thinking here. The Giants have earned my disdain this year by overachieving their way to a .500 record. Having the same number of wins as losses may not sound like "overachieving" in the classic sense, but w/ the Giants it is as they've been outscored by 50 runs over the course of the season. Compare that to Arizona, who is a game below .500 (65-66), yet has a run differential of +58 on the year. The big key for the Giants has been their record in one-run games, which is now 30-13 after Sunday's 5-4 win in Oakland. I simply believe Arizona is a much better ballclub and will "go big" on them tonight. 

Now these teams did just meet last weekend in Arizona. The Giants took three of the four games, which was not good for me as I had the D'backs in every game. One might think that Arizona's fortune would be less likely to turn on the road, but you'd actually be wrong as they've fared better away from Chase Field this season. They average 5.4 rpg on the road, up from 4.8 at home. Meanwhile, the Giants happen to score significantly LESS here at home. The drop is nearly a full TWO runs per game! So you can call it "home field disadvantage" in this series, if things play out the way the way the numbers say the should. 

Two struggling starters will take to the hill for Monday's opener. Arizona's Alex Young lost to the Giants in that last series, 7-0, after giving up five runs in five innings. At the time, it was his third consecutive start where the D'backs were shutout. But they won his last time out, 8-7 over Colorado. The Giants' Tyler Beede did not pitch in the last series w/ Arizona, but has an 0-6 TSR his L6 starts, having given up 4+ ER in five of them. He hasn't gone a full six innings in any of the six either. He's also never beaten Arizona. After dropping three in a row, the D'backs did win yday in Milwaukee. They win again here. 10* Arizona

10* Under A's/Royals (8:15 ET): Prior to winning 9-8 yesterday in Cleveland, the Royals were having a heck of a time scoring runs. They'd actually scored just five runs total the previous four games and had been held to two or fewer in 7 of the last 10. I don't think yesterday's "breakthrough" really means anything in the grand scheme of things and thus you should expect them to revert back to their "normal ways" tonight. Given all the lack of scoring discussed above, it shouldn't surprise you to hear that the Under was 9-1 in KC's L10 games previous to yday. Go w/ the Under again in this one. 

Oakland comes in off B2B losses to the Giants over the weekend, a real "sour" follow-up to them sweeping the Yankees in the previous series. The two losses put them one-half game back of Cleveland for the 2nd Wild Card. This will be the A's first time facing Kansas City in 2019 and really it couldn't come at a better time. This weekend, the A's will head to New York to face the revenge-minded Yankees. Thus this is a series they need to win in order to preserve their hopes of making the playoffs a second straight year. 

Before today, there were only two teams Homer Bailey had never faced: the Royals and Reds. He'd spent 12 years with the Reds before signing as a free agent w/ Kansas City prior to this year. Well, he can now cross the Royals off the list as he's set to face his former team. KC traded him to Oakland at the deadline as he wasn't having a particularly good year. His last two starts for the A's have been good as he's allowed just 1 run in 12 IP. Royals starter Brad Keller threw six shutout innings in his last start. 10* Under A's/Royals

8* Under Yankees/Dodgers (7:05 ET): You rarely see the Yankees in this price range, but then again it's even rarer that they have to go up against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, in LA no less. Still, tonight's ML is somewhat instructive for how the oddsmakers would view a potential World Series matchup between these two fabled franchises. I have too much respect for the team wearing pinstripes to fade them here and at this price (see Saturday), but the total is definitely worth a play after last night's 2-1 game (won by the Dodgers). Take the Under. 

It certainly would not be wise to fade Kershaw in this spot, given his 18-4 team start record, including 12-1 at home. Kershaw has a 2.77 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in those 22 overall starts. In his seven starts since the All-Star Break, Kershaw has never allowed more than 3 ER and has a 1.84 ERA and 0.955 WHIP. In the last seven games, the Yankees have topped four runs only twice. 

Speaking of outstanding team start records, Domingo German of the Yanks is at 17-4, though his numbers aren't nearly as good as Kershaw's. He's allowed 2 HR's in four straight starts and was tagged for six runs overall his last time out. But I have him bouncing back here as he'll be going up against a National League lineup. On the flip side, German will have to bat in this game. Hopefully, the Dodgers do get to the 9th w/ a lead as then we won't have to play the bottom of the inning and that's always a nice luxury when on the Under. 8* Under Yankees/Dodgers

10* Oakland (9:05 ET): Fading the Giants has become a regular occurence for me as this is a team that simply isn't as good as its record. While that record is now two games below .500, the Giants have been outscored by 56 runs, which is more indicative of a team that should be 12 games below .500. That difference may not sound like a whole heck of a lot, but it's among the most overachieving records in the sport. What the Giants have been able to do this year is win a lot of one-run games (29) and extra inning games (12), which simply isn't a blueprint for long-term success.

Coming into Saturday, the Giants have dropped four in a row. They were swept by the Cubs earlier in the week and then also lost last Sunday in Arizona, a series in which they had a chance to sweep themselves. In Thursday's loss to the Cubs, they got a dose of their own medicine, losing by 1 run (1-0). This remains a weak offensive ballclub, so I'm not particularly "worried" that Madison Bumgarner is on the hill tonight. Bumgarner has not been all that effective on the road anyway, sportiing a 4.76 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in 12 starts. The Giants are 5-7 in those games.

Oakland just swept the Yankees, which was an impressive and much needed performance. It's a three-team race for the two Wild Card spots in the American League right now and the A's are tied w/ the Indians for the second spot. Getting the start Saturday will be Chris Bassitt, who has a 3.23 ERA at home and a 2.37 ERA his L3 starts overall. He's delivered four quality starts in a row, allowing just five runs in 25 innings of work. The A's are 43-22 at home this year. 10* Oakland

10* Under Tigers/Twins (8:10 ET): Detroit is the lowest scoring team in all of baseball and has not scored more than four runs in any of its last nine games. They've scored a total of 23 runs in those nine games. They've actually won three times in that nine-game stretch, including a historic upset on Wednesday when they beat Houston as +435 underdogs. They're not nearly as big an underdog on the money line tonight against another division leader, the Twins. Minnesota is one of baseball's highest scoring teams, but they were actually shut out in their last game. Take the Under here. 

Jose Berrios has had a couple of rough showings in his L3 outings, but still has a 3.37 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the year. Despite there being nine previous Tigers-Twins meetings this season, Berios has only pitched in one of them and it was all the way back in April. He allowed just two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 IP.

The Twins chances of bouncing back tonight are strong seeing as they're 9-1 off their previous 10 shutout losses. However, they were held to only three hits by the White Sox Lucas Giolito Wednesday, including just a pair of singles going into the eighth inning. Drew Verhagen has a 3.72 ERA in 12 carer appearances vs. Minnesota, most of them in relief. This will be his 4th start of the year. Last one, he allowed one run in five innings. 10* Under Tigers/Twins

7* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Finally, the Giants got a "taste of their own medicine," losing a one-run game last night and a wild one at that. Early on, it appeared as if the Cubs were coasting to a second straight victory as they were up 6-2 after three innings. But as they are known to do, the Giants stormed back and eventually look the lead in the sixth and again in the seventh. But Kris Bryant's two-run shot in the bottom of the eighth put the Cubs ahead for good, 12-11. Now, with a quick turnaround, look for the Cubs to finish off the sweep Thursday afternoon. 

If you wonder what my "fuss" is about w/ the Giants, you must not be a regular reader. Even though they're now a game below .500, this is a club that has totally overachieved this year as they've been outscored by 55 runs. The key for them has been an extremely fortunate 29-12 record in one-run games and a 12-2 mark in extra innings (obviously some overlap there). The Giants' second half has been especially ridiculous as they're 8-0 in extra inning games. That's simply not a sustainable blueprint from where I sit as a team's record in close game "should be" a lot closer to .500. 

It's been well-established that the Cubs are a far better team at Wrigley Field than they are on the road. Their home record is 43-19 w/ a scoring differential of +1.2 rpg. One pitcher who always tends to do well at the Friendly Confines is tonight's starter Kyle Hendricks, who has a 1.98 ERA and 0.849 WHIP here in 10 starts this season. Hendricks has given up 2 ER or fewer in eight of his past nine starts overall. I know that Jeff Samardzija has pitched well for the Giants lately, but my overall disdain for the team trumps that. Also, in three career starts vs. his former team, Samardzija is winless w/ a 6.35 ERA. 7* Chi Cubs

10* Under Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): It would seem as if Milwaukee forgot to bring their bats for this series. Not that they've had much success at Busch Stadium anyway. Yesterday was their fifth consecutive loss here, dating back to a sweep in April. The Brew Crew couldn't even manage a hit until the eighth inning in Monday's 3-0 loss. They actually scored four runs last night, but it was not nearly enough as they gave up nine. Quietly, the Cardinals have allowed the second fewest runs in the entire National League (trailing only the Dodgers). They'll keep the Brewers in check again tonight. Look for the Cards to not score that many either. Take the Under here. 

Almost every starter on the St. Louis staff performs better at home than on the road. Wednesday starter Adam Wainwright is very representative of this. He has a 2.19 ERA at home as opposed to 6.87 on the road. Also, the Under is 8-2 in his 10 home starts. His last three have seen him give up only 2 ER in 18 IP. Note that the St. Louis' pitching staff has given up more than four runs in a game only twice in the L11 games. Three of those, including Monday, were shutouts. Wainwright's only start against the Brewers this year was here at home and he allowed just one run in six innings. 

Don't blame the starters for last night's game going Over. The game was 1-0 after five innings. Once again, I expect a strong effort out of not only St. Louis' starter (Wainwright), but also Milwaukee's. Adrian Houser has given up only 1 ER in three of his previous four starts. His last one saw him go seven innings and allow just two hits to a Washington team that's since hit the cover off the ball. The Brewers still ended up losing, 2-1. It was the sixth straight Houser start where the team scored two runs or fewer. I can certainly see that happening again here. The Under is 35-16-4 in the Cardinals' last 55 games. 10* Under Brewers/Cardinals

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Turns out that the Indians were drastically mispriced for last night's game. I found that out the hard way as they lost 9-2 to the Mets. Interestingly, there's a pretty significant price change for tonight's game. That's not just because of Tuesday's result either. The pitching matchup is slanted in the Mets' favor here w/ Marcus Stroman going against Adam Plutko. While I poked holes in the Mets' recent run (now 19-5 L24 games), the same can be said for a Cleveland team that has cleaned up against the Tigers & Royals (20-3 head to head!) while having a rather pedestrian record against everyone else the L2 months.

The Mets are very much alive in the NL Wild Card hunt. They're two games back of whomever doesn't end up winning the NL Central - the Cubs or Cardinals. Acquring Stroman at the trade deadline was a clear sign the team is "going for it" and thus far the deal has proven fruitful. The Mets have won all three games he's started for them. While Stroman's numbers haven't been that great as a Met, he does have a 3.21 ERA overall (24 starts). Ironically, his final start as a member of the Blue Jays came against the Indians. He went seven innings and allowed just one run on five hits in a hard-luck loss.

This time around, Stroman will be backed by a better offense. Tuesday was the third time in the last five games that the Mets scored at least nine runs. While they clearly benefited from an ill-time Indians' error last night, they'll gladly take it. Plutko was the beneficiary of some serious run support in his last start as the Indians won 19-5 at Yankee Stadium. But he'll be lucky to get that much support his next three starts combined. Plutko still has a 4.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the road. With last night's win, the Mets are now 13-5 in Interleague Play this year. 8* NY Mets

8* Under Angels/Rangers (7:05 ET): These AL West rivals split a doubleheader on Tuesday with the second game (won by Texas) going 11 innings. So there's probably "not much left in the tank" for the position players, not to mention the respective bullpens either. A poor second half is what essentially took Texas out of the running as far as making the playoffs go, but tonight they have a chance to win just their second series out of the last 15 tries (they won Monday's game). They'll send All-Star Mike Minor to the bump, which should ensure the Angels don't score much, but I have my concerns about the Rangers' offense here as well. Take the Under. 

Minor has gone 11-7 in his 25 starts this season (13-12 TSR), but probably deserves a better record in light of a 2.94 ERA. He wasn't at his best against Minnesota last Friday, but the Twins happen to be one of the highest scoring teams in all of MLB. Note that in the two starts prior, Minor didn't allow a single run in 15 IP, shutting out both Cleveland and Milwaukee. Overall, Minor is 3-0 w/ a 2.70 ERA in eight career appearances vs. the Angels, six of those being starts. The Under is 18-7 in all Minor starts this year, including 5-1 in the L6 and 3-0 the L3. 

Both games in yday's doubleheader also went Under w/ the Angels winning the day game 5-1 and the Rangers taking the nightcap 3-2. While the Rangers got off to a hot start to the season and faded, the Angels continue to be perpetually mediocre. In many ways, splitting a doubleheader is a metaphor for how this franchise has played the last several seasons. Patrick Sandoval will make his third start tonight for the Halos, looking for better results than what he's experienced thus far. In 9 IP, he's allowed 7 runs. But with the Under 23-10 the L33 head-to-head meetings between the Angels and Rangers, look for the scoring to again be minimal. 8* Under Angels/Rangers

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Let's continue to fade the Giants, who have been one of baseball's biggest overachievers this season. Obviously, I'm still a little bitter over them ruining my 10* Game of the Year on Arizona Friday. They took three of four overall in that series, but lost Sunday 7-1 (I faded them in all four games). Despite their 63-62 record this season, the Giants have been outscored by 52 runs. They've experienced some ridiculously good fortune by going 29-11 in one-run games and 12-2 in extra innings. We've been through all this many times before, so it should be nothing new to my regular followers.

The Cubs finally return home after a tough 4-6 road trip. One of the wins (Sunday night) actually came at a neutral setting as they beat the Pirates 7-1 in Williamsport, part of the League League World Series celebration. But at Wrigley, this is a completely different team. The Cubs' record at the Friendly Confines is 41-19 (as opposed to 25-39 on the road). The only teams w/ better win percentages at home are the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees. The previous homestand saw them take five of six from the Brewers and A's, two teams that are both better than the Giants. The Cubs absolutely deserve to be priced this high on the money line for Tuesday. 

Cole Hamels hasn't factored into too many decisions here at Wrigley (just 2-0!), but he has a 7-2 TSR, 2.35 ERA and 1.081 WHIP. His last two starts were poor, but both also on the road. The last time Hamels started at home, he tossed five shutout innings against Milwaukee. For the season, the Cubs are allowing just 3.8 rpg at home, third fewest in MLB. Hamels is being opposed here by Tyler Beede, who has allowed at least four runs in each of his last five starts. The Giants have lost all five times as Beede has given up 8 home runs in 23 1/3 IP. His ERA and WHIP in the last three starts are 9.94 and 1.894 respectively. This is a total mismatch. 6* Chi Cubs 

10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians have really gathered "steam" over the last two months, going an incredible 45-21 the L66 games. Not only are they out in front in the AL Wild Card race, they are also now just two games back in the AL Central after the Twins lost to the White Sox last night. While the Tribe could only split four games w/ the Yankees over the weekend, they'll gladly take it given the opponent and that it was on the road. They get to stay in the Big Apple for three more days, shifting to Queens, as it's time for an Interleague series w/ the equally hot Mets. I like Cleveland a lot more here, especially tonight w/ Shane Bieber on the mound. 

The Mets have come back from the dead to win 18 of their last 23 games. The NL Wild Card is very wide open and the Mets are very much alive in it (just two games back). While Cleveland's schedule hasn't exactly been daunting over the last month or so, the same can said for the Mets. They split six games against the Braves and Nationals while going 15-2 against the the Royals, Marlins, Pirates and White Sox. All four of those teams have been outscored by at least 110 runs this season. This series is the start of six in a row against .500 or better opponents for the Mets. Let's see how they do before making any offical proclamations that "they're back." 

Bieber has been outstanding for the Indians this year. He has a 17-8 TSR, 3.26 ERA and 0.998 WHIP. He also leads the American League in complete games w/ three. Two of those have come in his L5 starts. He's also top five in strikeouts. Facing an NL lineup should prove easy for Bieber. He'll be opposed by Steven Matz, who has not suffered a defeat here at Citi Field all season (7-2 TSR). But overall Matz simply has not been as good as Bieber this season. Two of the Mets' five losses over the last 23 games have come w/ Matz on the mound. Cleveland is a very good road team (35-25 record) and the Mets are a money-burning 7-25 as ML home underdogs of +125 to +175 the L3 seasons. 10* Cleveland

10* Under Nationals/Pirates (7:05 ET): Playing this matchup Under the total certainly did not work out well yesterday as Washington's red hot offense jumped all over Pittsburgh starter Trevor Williams and scored eight runs in the first two innings. From there, it was "all over but the shouting." The Nats would go onto win 13-0, the third straight game they've scored at least 13 runs! They've scored 13+ in four of the last five games as well, but facing a Pirates team that has managed to score only four runs in its last four games (shutout twice), I still have faith in the Under in this matchup. Take it Tuesday! 

As hot as this Nationals lineup may be right now, don't look for them to jump on Chris Archer the way they did Williams last night. Archer hasn't had much success of late (0-7 TSR L7 starts!), but his individual numbers remain respectable. He's got 19 strikeouts in his past two starts and a 3.18 ERA in the last three. The biggest problem he faces here is his own offense, which is barely scoring at all of late. In fact, had the Pirates not scored a meaningless run in the bottom of the ninth Sunday (lost 7-1 to the Cubs), they would be coming into tonight having been shutout in three consecutive games! They have just 26 hits in the last 45 innings.

The Pirates' overall ineptitude should make it easy for Stephen Strasburg to get back on track tonight. Strasburg had an ugly showing in Arizona that got August off on the wrong foot, but has been better in two subsequent starts. He's 8-1 his L10 starts (8-2 TSR) and will be going for his 16th win of the season, which would be a new career-high. Strasburg's 1st career start came vs. the Pirates and he's 6-2 w/ a 2.40 ERA in nine all-time starts against them. All of a sudden, Washington's bullpen now looks a lot better too as it delivered 6+ scoreless innings last night. The Pirates are 7-28 since the All-Star Break and won't provide much competition in what promises to be a lower-scoring game compared to yday. 10* Under Nationals/Pirates

8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): The Reds are another of those clubs where the won-loss record is really NOT an accurate portrayal. For virtually all of this season, they've sported a positive run differential. Yet they've never quite been able to get to .500. Coming off a split w/ St. Louis over the weekend here at Great American Ballpark, the Reds are seven games below .500, but have still have outscored the opposition by 22 runs this season, a similar differential to that of the 1st place Cardinals (+28). Pitching has been key for the Reds as they've given up the third fewest runs in the National League. The starting rotation (theoretically) got even stronger at the trade deadline w/ the acquisition of Trevor Bauer, who gets the starting nod for Monday. Take the Reds tonight.

San Diego foolishly had playoff aspirations coming into this season. That was due to the acquisition of Manny Machado in the offseason. But that's just one player and he's not even living up to the large contract doled out to him. The Padres' best hitter has been Fernando Tatis Jr, a rookie that's out of the lineup right now. The Padres were able to start this road trip by taking two out of three in Philadelphia over the weekend, but I like their chances for success a lot less here. Eric Lauer gets the start Monday and has a 6.20 ERA/1.453 WHIP in 11 road starts. 

Bauer was rocked his last time out, giving up nine runs in 17-7 loss to Washington. He's been "up and down" all year, so I really like the idea of "buying low" on Bauer here as you know he'll be a lot better tonight. Probably something similar to what we saw in his home debut on 8.9 vs. the Cubs where he allowed just one run in seven innings. He also had 11 strikeouts in that game. The Reds took three of four from the Padres out in San Diego back in April. They are a stronger team at home and should get this series started on a winning note. 8* Cincinnati

8* Under Nationals/Brewers (7:05 ET): Washington just scored a lot of runs over the weekend, 30 to be exact in the last two games. The fact that they split those two games should also tell you they gave up their fair share as well. But there's no denying this lineup is "humming" right now as they have scored 14 or more runs in three of the last four games. Now they're matched up w/ a Pirates team that has been going Over in most of its games all season. The Bucs' O/U record currently stands at 69-48-6, which is the third highest Over percentage in the sport. But they've been held to just one run over the past two games. I'm calling for this one to stay Under. 

Pittsburgh was very nearly shutout (by the Cubs) in both games over the weekend. They didn't score last night until the bottom of the ninth, when the game was well out of reach. In that entire series, they scored just four runs.  It's been a dramatic slide for the Pirates, not that we didn't see it coming, as they're now just 7-27 since the All-Star Break. In seven of the last 11 games, they've been held to three runs or less. On a more positive note, Monday starter Trevor Williams did hold Washington to just two runs on four hits (6 1/3 IP) back in April. He has a 3.06 ERA in four career appearances against the Nats. The Under is 12-4-1 in Williams' L17 home starts vs. a .500 or better opponent. 

Washington has gotten hot despite the absence of Max Scherzer from the starting rotation. Tonight's starter Joe Ross deserves a lot of the credit for that as he's been lights out his L3 starts w/ a 0.50 ERA and 3-0 record. Ross has allowed just one run in 18 IP during that stretch. Going back to the end of last season, the last seven times Ross has started, the Under is 7-0. He has a 2.81 ERA in three career starts vs. Pittsburgh. The Under is 14-5 in the Nats' L19 road games and 20-7 L27 if they scored 5+ runs the previous game. It's also 6-1 the L7 meetings w/ the Pirates. 8* Under Nationals/Brewers

8* Run Line Arizona (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the D'backs at +1.5. We won w/ the RL yday in a game fueled by revenge (Braves over Dodgers), but this one goes even further than that. While I concede this series has been a gross misread on my part (I've had Arizona in every game), I still believe what the numbers say and that's the D'backs are the far superior team. Taking the run line today "protects us" from what the Giants do best and that's win one-run games. They are a MLB-best 29-11 in that scenario and don't forget about their 12-2 record in extra innings either. The home team does no worse than a one-run loss today.

Just as I said in the Texas writeup, a home team getting swept in a four-game series is pretty rare. What makes this series all the more frustrating from the D'backs perspective is the numbers I alluded to earlier. Though San Francisco is 63-61 and Arizona is 61-63, the Giants have actually been outscored this season (by 47 runs!) while the D'backs have a YTD run differential of +61. Consider that the D'backs run differential is actually third best in the entire National League! The Giants is 4th worst w/ only the three last place teams worse. Run differential suggests Arizona has been about 11 games better than SF this year, not the two games worse that they are in actuality.

Taking the +1.5 wasn't an option in any of the first three games of this series, but it is here due to the Giants having Madison Bumgarner. But I'm playing the teams, not the starters here. Starting pitching is obviously important, but it isn't the "end all, be all" that it used to be in MLB betting. That said, it is "refreshing" to see that MadBum has a 4.64 ERA and 1.344 WHIP on the road to go along with a losing (5-6) team start record. I know that Merrill Kelly has struggled for Arizona, but with the numbers (specifically a +1.5) on his side, the D'backs get the cash here. 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5)

8* Houston (4:07 ET): This game, like the two others in this package, finds a team (Houston) looking to avoid a sweep. But what makes it a little different is a) it's the road team and b) it's the Astros. Houston certainly isn't accustomed to these kind of results. In fact, they had gone 9-2 vs. the A's this year before this particular series got underway. Overall, the Astros have lost five straight and six of the last seven, which is highly irregular for them. It's their worst stretch of the season besides a seven-game slide back in mid-June. They bounce back and avoid the sweep today, thanks to who's on the mound. 

The Astros have lost as big favorites numerous times during this 1-6 slide. The slide began last Sunday w/ an infamous loss as -550 ML favorites to Baltimore, which came one day after they beat the Orioles 23-2! But today they've got an "ace in the hole" in the form of Zack Greinke, who has now made two starts since coming over from Arizona. He gave up five runs in the first run (though three of them were unearned), then returned to usual form on Tuesday by holding the White Sox to just two runs over six innings. That's Houston's only win over the last week. But it's situations like this why they went out and got Greinke. Look for him to deliver. 

Though he just came over from the National League, Greinke has had success in the past facing Oakland. He's 6-2 w/ a 3.11 ERA in 16 appearances against them. Meanwhile, A's starter Brett Anderson has had no such luck with the Astros as he's 1-4 w/ a 6.58 ERA in six career outings against them. The first two games of this series were both decided by one run, one of them going 13 innings, so it's not like Oakland is dominating. This afternoon, it will be Greinke doing the dominating as he usually does in the Bay Area (9-1 when pitching in either Oakland or SF). 8* Houston

8* Texas (3:05 ET): The Twins are looking to sweep Sunday and have certainly "brought the lumber" so far in this series as they've scored 29 runs in the first three games, twice scoring 12 or more. But today they run into Lance Lynn. He has a 1.42 ERA his L3 starts and has allowed exactly 1 ER in each of his last four. Despite this, his TSR during that time is only 2-2. That seems unfair and I think it's also notable that w/ Lynn on the mound here, the Rangers are favorites for the first time in this series. Now three games below .500 on the year, Texas is at its lowest point in the standings in three months. It's a good "buy low" situation. 

Spoiler alert: every team I'm taking in this three-game report is looking to avoid a sweep Sunday. In the Rangers' case they look to avoid the embarrassment of being swept in a four-game series at home, which doesn't happen all that often. Coming into this series, Texas was 35-22 at home this year. Lynn is 9-1 in his 12 starts here in Arlington (10-2 TSR) and the last one saw him allow just one run and four hits in seven innings. . Not only has Lynn allowed exactly 1 ER in each of his L4 starts, he's given up 3 ER or less in 19 of his 25 this season! So I've got him as the clear "difference-maker" Sunday. 

Minnesota is averaging 6.2 rpg on the road this season, which is very impressive. I know we're halfway through August, which means it's a large enough sample size, but maintaining that scoring average these next two months could prove difficult. Yesterday, it was a six-run 1st inning that opened the flood gates for the Twins. But all six runs were unearned as they came after a throwing error on what looked to be an inning-ending double play. Martin Perez has a 5.82 ERA and 1.765 WHIP his L3 starts and while he may very well pitch better today than what those numbers indicate, he can't match Lynn. 8* Texas

10* Under Twins/Rangers (3:05 ET): The Twins are looking to sweep Sunday and have certainly "brought the lumber" so far in this series as they've scored 29 runs in the first three games, twice scoring 12 or more. But today they run into Lance Lynn. He not only has a 1.42 ERA his L3 starts, but all three have stayed Under as well. In fact, the Under is now 17-8 in all Lynn starts this season. Being that we're halfway through August, the fact that the Twins are still averaging 6.2 runs per game on the road is legit. But I still believe its going to be difficult to maintain that number the last two months of the season. Take the Under. 

Today marks the 1st time in the series that Texas is favored to win. They were significant ML underdogs in the two blowout losses. But Lynn looks to be a difference maker for the finale as the Rangers look to avoid the embarrassment of being swept in a four-game series at home, which doesn't happen all that often. Coming into this series, Texas was 35-22 at home this year. Lynn is 9-1 in his 12 starts here in Arlington (10-2 TSR) and the last one saw him allow just one run and four hits in seven innings. Not only has Lynn allowed exactly 1 ER in each of his L4 starts, he's given up 3 ER or less in 19 of his 25 this season. 

A six-run 1st inning is what doomed Texas yesterday (all six unearned). That won't be happening again w/ Lynn on the mound, however. Ironically, Lynn pitched for Minnesota last season and wasn't all that effective. Both of today's starters will be facing former teams as Martin Perez pitches for the first time as an opponent at Globe Life Park. Like Lynn, Perez has pitched a lot better for his new team than for his old one. His last time out, Perez allowed only one unearned run in six innings at Milwaukee. The Rangers are averaging only 4.0 rpg their last seven contests. 10* Under Twins/Rangers

10* Arizona (8:10 ET): Perhaps it was apropos for San Francisco to pass Arizona in the standings w/ a 10-9 win last night in extra innings. After all, that's how the Giants have been winning most of this year, particularly in the second half. But for me, last night's result was not a pleasant one as the D'backs happened to be my Game of the Year. Twice they rallied, including from five runs down in the bottom of the eighth, but it was not to be. I still maintain that Arizona is the far superior team though and will back them again Saturday. No matter what has happened the L2 days, numbers don't lie and all the numbers suggest the D'backs are having the superior season. 

 Let's start w/ run differential. Though San Francisco is 62-61 and Arizona is 61-62, the Giants have actually been outscored this season (by 52 runs) while the D'backs have a YTD run differential of +66. Consider that the D'backs run differential is actually the second best in the entire National League. The Giants is 4th worst (only the three last place teams worse). In terms of actual vs. expected wins, Arizona has drastically underachieved this season (by 7 games) while SF has overachieved (by 6 games). Run differential suggests Arizona has been about 12 games better than SF, not the one game worse that they are in actuality. 

The key for the Giants this year has been extraordinarily good fortune. They are 29-11 in one-run games and 12-2 in extra innings. Both are easily MLB's best records in those situations. Obviously, there is some overlap between the two records. In the second half alone, the Giants are 8-0 in extra innings and they have 11 one-run victories. It is because of all these numbers that I am sticking w/ the D'backs in this series as the fact both teams are starting Triple-A callups on Saturday has virtually no bearing on my opinion. 10* Arizona 

8* Run Line Atlanta (7:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Braves at +1.5. You might be surprised to see the home team as the underdog in this battle of division leaders, but the reputation of Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Dodgers needs little in the way of introduction. Plus, the Braves are now 0-4 vs. the Dodgers here in 2019. But while Ryu has been other-worldly at Chavez Ravine this season (11-0 TSR, 0.81 ERA, 0.798 WHIP), he's been downright "mortal" on the road by comparison. The Dodgers are also just 6-5 in Ryu's 11 road starts. Atlanta does no worse than a one-run loss tonight and I give them a great shot at pulling the upset. 

Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz returned to the rotation earlier this month and has led his team to a pair of wins, even though he's not exactly been dominant himself. Going back to June though, Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 in Foltynewicz's last five starts. It should be noted Atlanta did lead 3-1 early last night before failing to score again after the second inning. But they still led 3-2 going into the eighth, which is when LA seized control of the game. A three-run HR drastically altered the trajectory of the game and the Braves could not recover as it was too little, too late. 

The Braves have had their issues w/ Ryu in the past, just like every other team has this year. But the lone meeting of 2019 was at Dodger Stadium. Yes, I have a ton of respect for what Ryu and the Dodgers have accomplished individually and collectively, but I believe in the revenge angle here and Ryu simply hasn't been as dominant on the road. This is a great price on the Braves at home where they are 34-27 on the year and almost never an underdog. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) 

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yankees evened this series up at a game apiece w/ a 3-2 win Friday. Though they got two of their runs in the first inning, the Yanks outhit the Indians 10-4 for the game. This on the heels of being crushed 19-5 Thursday, which doubled as Cleveland's best win and the Yankees worst loss of 2019 (in terms of margin). Despite what happened there, New York remains a very strong home team and has now produced 27 consecutive winning seasons. That's the 2nd longest streak in MLB history, behind only the 39 straight they delivered from 1929 to '64. This year's edition is doing quite fine as they've won 15 of their last 18 and now are +152 in run differential for the year. 

Cleveland has been on quite the run in its own right as they've gotten back into the AL Central race by going 45-21 since June 1st. They also happen to lead the Wild Card. But let's be sure to point out how the Tribe has really taken advantage of a boatload of games against the Royals and Tigers. They're a combined 20-3 against those two teams, meaning they're still just 25-18 against "everyone else" the L2+ months. Thursday's offensive explosion (season-best 24 hits) looks to be an aberration considering they were held to only four last night

James Paxton hopes to get the Indians offense from last night as opposed to Thursday. He's certainly capable of keeping the Tribe in check considering he's 3-0 in his L3 starts w/ a 2.89 ERA and 0.964 WHIP. It's a nice turnaround from what most Yankees fans would consider a disappointing season. Now Cleveland's Zach Plesac has a 7-0 team start record his L7 starts, but his ERA and WHIP during that time aren't exactly indicative of a dominant pitcher. Plesac's WHIP over his L3 starts is 1.562, which isn't good at all. His last start was won on a walkoff HR by Carlos Santana. 8* NY Yankees

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Giants came into Arizona Thursday and shut the D'backs out 7-0. That shocked me. As I said in yday's analysis, this is a matchup I've been waiting for some time now. It pits one of MLB's most underrated teams (Arizona) against one of its most overrated (San Francisco). Despite a .500 (61-61) record and the loss last night, Arizona has outscored its opponents this year by 67 runs this season. That's still the second best run differential in the entire National League. Compare that to the Giants, who have the same .500 record (61-61), yet have been outscored by 53 runs (4th worst run diff in NL). I'll make the D'backs my biggest MLB play of the year Friday! 

In terms of actual vs. expected wins, Arizona is baseball's biggest underachiever right now as that run differential is indicative of a 68-win team. Meanwhile, San Francisco's run differential is indicative of a 55-win team. So while the two NL West teams are tied, run differential says Arizona has played like a team that should be a 13 games ahead! The key for the Giants has been extremely fortunate record in one-run games (28-11) as well as in extra inning games (11-2). (Obviously, there's some overlap there). The Giants started the 2nd half of the season on a 13-4 run, but were really lucky to do so as seven of those wins came in extra innings and eight were by just one run (again, some overlap)! Since then, the team is two games below .500. I believe further regression is set to take hold. 

Arizona has had no such luck this year, but there's still almost two months to go and they're only 3.5 games back of the Wild Card, same as the Giants. What they do have for Friday is starting pitcher Mike Leake. He struggled his last time out, but that was against the Dodgers. His TSR in his four starts prior was a perfect 4-0, three of those coming w/ Seattle and the other being his D'backs debut. Jeff Samardzija goes for San Fran tonight and while he's been sharp since the All-Star Break, he still has a 6.35 ERA in two starts vs. Arizona in 2019. The Giants have lost 22 of the last 27 times the former Notre Dame wide receiver has started the second game of a series. 10* Arizona 

8* Washington (7:05 ET): We'll get to the pitching mismatch momentarily, but let's start w/ the fact that this is also a revenge spot for the Nationals. Back in early May, they were swept in a three-game series at Miller Park. Back then, the Nats weren't playing very well. That three-game sweep left them at 14-22 on the young season. Now they're 65-55, meaning they've gone 51-33 ever since. They're also now in the top Wild Card spot after sweeping Cincinnati to start the week. We were on Wednesday's 17-7 win and will back them again at home tonight. Oh, sweet revenge! 

Milwaukee is one of those teams that consistently confounds me. They too are in the WC race, but they really don't deserve to be as they've been outscored by 21 runs over the course of the season. They do have a nice home record, but the road is a different story as they're just 27-32. Having Adrian Houser start tonight's game appears to be of little assistance as he's got a 6.00 ERA and 1.641 WHIP in nine starts (3-6 TSR). Compare that to Washington starter Pat Corbin, who is 9-5 in 24 starts w/ a 3.41 ERA and 1.151 WHIP. 

With this game taking place in the Nation's Capital, the pitching matchup becomes even more lopsided. Corbin has the second best home ERA in MLB (1.78 in 11 starts) to go along w/ a super 0.885 WHIP. His TSR here is 9-2. Meanwhile, Houser's numbers predictably get worse on the road (7.04 ERA and 1.783) and he's winless in those five outings. Washington's offense has totaled 34 runs during a four-game win streak and this is a team making good on my preseason prognostication for improvement (loss of Bryce Harper was overrated). I'm still not sold on the Brew Crew even though they've won six of the last eight. Revenge and an edge in starting pitching will have the Nats in the winners circle tonight. 8* Washington

7* LA Angels (10:07 ET): It's been tough times recently for the Angels. The only real "highlight" was taking B2B games in Boston at the end of a nine-game road trip. But seeing as they lost the first seven games of said trip, it certainly wasn't a success. Nor was their last series, despite it coming at home, as they dropped two of three to the lowly Pirates. The win did come yday though, 7-4, and you shouldn't be surprised if the Halos are able to finally turn things around this weekend as the White Sox pay a visit. Chicago's 54-65 record is definitely not good, but it also fails to paint an accurate picture as to how awful this club has really been. They've been outscored by 114 runs over the course of the season, a worse margin than the 43-78 Royals! 

In terms of actual vs. expected (based on run diff) wins, the White Sox are baseball's biggest overachiever. Again, that may sound strange for a team that's already 11 games below .500. But that -114 run differential is indicative of what you'd expect from a 47-win team at this point of the season. Only three teams - two of them the historically bad Tigers and Orioles - have worse YTD run differentials than the White Sox do. Coming off last night's stunning 13-9 home win over the Astros (were +275 on the ML!), they are ripe for a letdown on the road Thursday. 

Tonight's starter, Reynaldo Lopez, has a 2.65 ERA his L3 starts for the White Sox and the team has won his last two times out. But that 2.65 ERA is misleading in that Lopez's WHIP is 1.707 over the same three starts. That means he's gotten away w/ putting a lot of guys on base. There's absolutely nothing in Lopez's profile to suggest he'll pitch well here. He has a 5.31 ERA and 1.50 WHP in 11 road starts. The Angels have scored seven runs in B2B games. I can't say that their starter (Andrew Heaney) is all that great, but he'll certainly benefit by facing the team that is 28th in MLB in runs scored. This is the first meeting of the season between these teams and you can look for the Angels to pick up the 'W.' 7* LA Angels

10* Over Astros/A's (10:07 ET): This will be our top AL West total for August as we're going Over w/ a pair of teams that both scored nine runs yesterday. Oakland did so in a win over the Giants while Houston suffered a shocking 13-9 loss as -350 ML favorites in Chicago. The Astros' reputation has resulted in huge losses at the betting window recently as yday was the THIRD time in the L8 games that they lost as a favorite of -350 or higher on the money line, including a historic upset in Baltimore Sunday where they closed at -550! Houston has closed at -205 or higher in its last 11 games, so this is a team the oddsmakers fear and so should Oakland tonight. 

The A's hopes of winning the AL West went out the window a long time ago (they currently trail the Astros by 9.5 games), but the Wild Card is certainly within reach as they look to make the playoffs in B2B seasons. Wednesday's victory over the Giants was certainly a welcome sight, particularly the way that it was accomplished as the nine runs exceeded the number that they had scored the previous three games combined. But all of those games were also played on the road. 

Looking at the recent efforts of the two starting pitchers for tonight, you might think an Over call seems a bit crazy. Houston's Aaron Sanchez won't have an easier win the rest of his career than the one he got on Saturday as the team bludgeoned Baltimore 23-2. But Sanchez still has a 5.60 ERA and 1.601 WHIP for the year and both of those numbers go up on the road. Oakland's Michael Fiers has admittedly been outstanding this year (17 starts w/o a loss!), even moreso when he pitches at home, but the Astros have been a nemesis for him. Fiers hasn't beaten Houston since 2012 and he has a 5.29 ERA in six career starts against them. Three have come this year, all no decisions, as Fiers has allowed 10 runs and 17 hits in 16 IP. 10* Over Astros/A's

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): This is a matchup I've been waiting for some time now as it pairs one of MLB's most underrated teams against one of its most overrated. The former is Arizona, who despite losing yday, did manage to take two of three from Colorado. Maybe I shouldn't be surprised considering how the D'backs have performed on the road this season (better than at home!). Despite being just a game over .500 (61-60), Arizona has outscored its opponents this year by 74 runs. That's the second best run differential in the entire National League. In terms of actual vs. expected wins, they are baseball's biggest underachiever right now as that run differential is indicative of a 68-win team.

Meanwhile, the Giants' profile is just the opposite. They are only one game back of the D'backs (60-61) despite having been outscored by 60 runs over the course of the season! That's the 4th worst differential in the Senior Circuit w/ only the three last place teams worse off. So while the gap in the standings might only be a single game, run differential says the D'backs are actually 14 games better than the Giants! I'm really surprised that they are not higher on the money line for tonight, especially after an overnight pitching change by the visitors. 

San Francisco is a team I was fading regularly earlier this month and it's time to go back to that. Instead of Jeff Samardzija going for them tonight, it will be Dereck Rodriguez, who was recalled from Triple A. That's quite the severe downgrade as Rodriguez has not performed well at the big league level this season w/ a 5.14 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 10 starts. His last outing saw him allow seven runs in just three innings. While the numbers indicate Arizona does play better on the road, they still are outscoring opponents here at Chase Field for the season. They were three outs away from sweeping the Rockies yday and I like what I've seen so far from Thursday's starter Alex Young, particularly a 0.812 WHIP at home. 10* Arizona

10* Washington (4:05 ET): So far, this series has been a nice bounce back for the Nationals after they dropped two of three to the surging Mets this past weekend. Today they look to finish off a three-game sweep of the Reds and this looks to be an extraordinarily low price on Stephen Strasburg pitching at home. Yes, he'll be opposed by Trevor Bauer, but Bauer has been up and down all season. While he shined against the Cubs his last time out, Bauer was less than stellar in his Reds debut. Strasburg leads the NL in wins (w/ 14) and has a superb 0.986 WHIP at home. I'm calling for the Nats to finish off the sweep. 

Strasburg was rocked on 8.3 in Arizona, but bounced back w/ a quality effort against the Mets his last time out. The team still lost, 7-6, but don't blame Strasburg for that as he gave up only three runs in 7 IP. It was the Nats' bullpen that was responsible for the loss as Sean Doolittle allowed four runs in the bottom of the ninth. Strasburg isn't the only player on the team that enjoys games here in the Nation's Capital. The Nats are 26-13 their L39 here in the Beltway. They've also won six of eight overall. 

I fully expect Washington to be a playoff team. Can't say the same for Cincinnati, though they actually own a similar YTD run differential. Part of the problem for the Reds is they simply don't score enough runs. They currently rank in the bottom third of runs scored in all of MLB and only three teams in the NL have scored less. On the road, their record is just 23-34. Bauer has not made it out of the fifth inning in either of his L2 road starts, giving up a total of 11 runs on 16 hits.. Cincy is just 3-16 vs. Washington since the start of the 2017 season. 10* Washington

8* Under Twins/Brewers (2:10 ET): The Twins are averaging 6.1 runs per game on the road this season. That always felt like an unsustainable number to me, but the Yankees actually average more (6.5 rpg). Still, even though we're halfway through August, I expect that number to come down for Minnesota. On that note, the Twins have lost all of an 11.5 game advantage over the Indians in the American League Central. They had actually fallen out of first place (for the 1st time since late April) before winning yday 7-5 here in Milwaukee. This is a NL park and thus I expect less scoring today. Take the Under.

Milwaukee is another team seemingly headed in the wrong direction. They are third in the NL Central, but still very much alive in both the division and Wild Card race. However, run differential says they are pretty lucky to be in this position as they've been outscored by 22 runs over the course of the season. Last night was a blown save opportunity for the Brew Crew, the 5th this season from alleged closer Josh Hader, who has now given up eight home runs in the 8th inning or later. That's the most by any pitcher since 1961! Much of the scoring in last night's game was done in the later innings as the Brewers scored four runs to take the lead in the bottom of the seventh only to then allow three in the top of the eighth. 

Today's starting pitching matchup featured a change on the Milwaukee side as they'll now go w/ Gio Gonzalez instead of Drew Pomeranz. That's a net positive as Gonzalez has a 3.20 ERA in 10 starts this year and a 0.831 WHIP in the four at home. He's allowed no more than 3 ER in 9 of the 10. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson was having a breakout season in the 1st half before "cooling off" the last month or so. But he still can claim a 11-5 team start record. The Under is 5-2-1 the last eight times Gibson has started on 5+ days rest. Look for him to bounce back after a rough outing against Cleveland over the weekend. 8* Under Twins/Brewers

8* Under Rangers/Blue Jays (12:37 ET): A couple of American League also-rans wrap up a three-game series on Wednesday and the home team will be going for a sweep. After putting a season-high 19 runs on the board Monday, Toronto shut Texas out 3-0 last night. I see this game being closer to last night, in terms of final score, as the Rangers simply aren't hitting right now. They've scored a grand total of 14 runs in eight games on this road trip, getting held to two runs or fewer six times. Collectively, they've hit below .165 on the trip. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays happen to have the lowest home batting average in all of baseball (.225). Take the Under. 

For awhile, Texas was one of the bigger surprise teams this year. They were 50-42 after opening the 2nd half w/ a pair of wins over Houston. Since that time, they've gone just 9-18. They've lost six of the last seven games and are now resigned to playing out the string. That's evident by them starting Kolby Allard today. Allard made his first start of 2019 last Friday and this will be just the third big league start of his career. While Allard and the Rangers lost in Milwaukee last Friday, 5-2, he allowed only two runs on three hits and had finished w/ seven strikeouts. Toronto has a much weaker lineup than Milwaukee does. 

Toronto has basically been a disappointment all year, but it's not like they were expected to contend in the AL East. While they are 21 games below .500 right now, run differential says they've played to the level of a 57-win team, which isn't that far off from the Rangers. In fact, only Cincinnati and Arizona have underachieved more in terms of actual vs expected wins. Sean Reid-Foley gets the nod Wednesday and he has a 1.29 ERA his L3 times out. He just held the Yankees to one run in five innings on Friday as the Blue Jays pulled off an upset as +130 underdogs. 8* Under Rangers/Blue Jays

6* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals took advantage of a weak opponent over the weekend, sweeping the Pirates at Busch Stadium. Now they get another in the renewal of the I-70 series w/ Kansas City. Earlier in the year (back in May), these teams split a pair of games (doubleheader) in St. Louis. But there's no disputing who the better team is here as the Cards have won five straight times here. Something I haven't seen discussed at all is how the National League is on the verge of snapping a 14-year losing streak to the American League in Interleague Play. They are currently 158-142 in IL play in '19. St. Louis has always been one of the better teams in IL play as they have the highest all-time win percentage among NL teams. They win big Tuesday. 

Heading into tonight, the Cardinals are two games back of the Cubs in the NL Central. But the Cubs are in the midst of a 10-game road trip right now and we know how inferior they are away from Wrigley. So the Cardinals need to continue to take advantage of these weak teams on the schedule. Truthfully, the Redbirds aren't exactly a powerhouse away from home either. But they are a perfect 4-0 the L3 seasons when priced at -175 or higher on the road. The Royals are just 22-35 at home this season.

We also have a massive starting pitching mismatch on our hands for this game. The Cardinals go w/ Jack Flaherty, who has been "lights out" of late w/ a 0.94 ERA his L6 starts. He's allowed just four runs in 38 1/3 IP. Despite this, Flaherty is only 1-1 during this stretch w/ a 3-3 TSR. So he's due for a win. Can't say the same for Kansas City's Glenn Sparkman though. He's been downright brutal over his L3 starts, posting a 10.56 ERA and 1.956 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed more runs in 4 2/3 innings than Flaherty has allowed in those last 38+ IP. The Cardinals also get Yadier Molina back in the lineup tonight. 6* St. Louis

8* Under Red Sox/Indians (7:10 ET): I've had my "finger on the pulse" of Red Sox totals the last two days, cashing the Under vs. the Angels on Sunday (despite the game going to extra innings!) and then the Over here in Cleveland last night. Unfortunately for Boston, both games resulted in losses for them. They now are 8.5 games back of the Wild Card, so there's a very good shot they won't even get into the playoffs after winning the World Series a year ago. Cleveland is streaking as they're now 43-17 the L60 games and have passed the Twins in the AL Central. I'm sticking w/ the total though tonight and going back to playing Boston Under the total. 

It was a fast start for the hitters last night as the game was 5-3 (in Cleveland's favor) by the end of the 4th inning. Boston then rallied, scoring a run in the seventh and ninth to tie it up. Once the game was tied 5-5, I was guaranteed a win w/ the Over at 10.5. Unfortunately, the Red Sox had no such guarantee and for the second day in a row Cleveland won on a Carlos Santana home run. Tonight's starting pitching matchup should guarantee fewer runs being scored early and that's a big reason why I'm moving to the Under. Chris Sale and Mike Clevinger simply aren't going to give up a lot of runs. 

Sale is having what is perceived as a "down year" and it's hard to argue w/ that given a 9-15 TSR. But his WHIP is 1.088, which tells me that he's pitched better than most realize. Last time out, he threw eight shutout innings of two-hit ball w/ 13 strikeouts. Unfortunately for Boston, they'll be facing Mike Clevinger, who has won six straight decisions and has a 0.92 ERA at home, the second lowest home ERA in all of baseball. In his L7 starts overall, Clevinger has a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. This will be a good ol' fashioned pitchers' duel. 8* Under Red Sox/Indians 

10* Detroit (7:10 ET): I have to admit that it seems strange to have such a strong feeling about a team like the Tigers, who have the fewest number of wins in MLB (35) and the 2nd worst run differential (-228). But an early line move definitely "caught my eye" here as that's pretty rare for the Tigers. They also have revenge for a prior sweep where they dropped all four games in Seattle. That series just took place at the end of July. Now it's time for Detroit to exact a little revenge. They have their best pitcher going Tuesday. Seattle is 19-35 on the road and has lost eight of nine overall. 

The Mariners did start the season 13-2. But I basically called them a fraud and all but guaranteed they would regress. That is exactly what has happened. They're just 35-69 overall since and now in last place in the AL West at 48-71 w/ a -117 run differential. This is one of the few teams that can be a very winnable matchup for the Tigers. Starting Tuesday for Seattle will be Yusei Kikuchi. He has a 5.34 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 24 starts. Those numbers get slightly worse on the road. His last road starts saw him give up six runs in just four innings. 

Boyd can be hot and cold, but he's also pitching for a bad team and that's the primary reason why he has an 8-16 TSR. He did give up five runs in only 2 2/3 IP his last start, but the team actually still got the win, 10-8 over Kansas City. He was coming off three straight starts where he'd allowed two runs or less. He did face Seattle in the last series and gave up just one run on three hits in 6 1/3 IP. His numbers are better at home. The Mariners have not scored more than four runs in any of their last eight games and have been held to two runs or fewer in half of those. Twice they've been shut out. 10* Detroit

analysis soon

10* Under Pirates/Angels (10:07 ET): Talk about two struggling teams. The Pirates have lost eight in a row as well as 24 of 28 since the All-Star Break. You can't say I didn't warn you as all season the Bucs have had a poor run differential, indicating that they are one of the weaker teams the National League has to offer. It was months ago that I guaranteed they would finish last in the NL Central and that prediction looks like it will come true as they have fallen well behind the rest of the pack. They've been outscored by 100 runs this year after Sunday's 11-9 loss to the Cardinals (where they blew an 8-4 lead).

The Angels did win both Saturday & Sunday, beating the Red Sox 12-4 and 5-4. The latter came in extra innings yday, a game which I still cashed the Under. As I pointed out in the analysis, that 12-run effort was largely a byproduct of a sloppy inning by the opposition and was highly unlikely to repeat itself. They actually finished that game w/ more runs than hits, which isn't easy to do. They rallied yday for the 5-4 win, but still are just 4-12 their L16 games overall and finished the road trip at 2-7. The Under is a perfect 4-0 the L4 times the Angels have returned home after a road trip of at least seven days. 

This will be Pittsburgh's first venture in Anaheim since 2013. They've decided to recall Mitch Keller to start Monday's game after he spent the last two months down in Triple-A Indianapolis. Keller did start three big league games earlier in the year and they didn't go very well, but I think he'll do better here as the Angels are batting a collective .189 their L7 games. The Angels counter w/ Jose Suarez, who is coming off B2B losses, including a bad outing in Cincinnati his last time out. But this is a weaker NL lineup that he'll be facing this go around and Pittsburgh is averaging just 3.3 rpg its last seven contests. The Under is 10-4-1 the L15 times the Pirates have been off a game where they gave up 5+ runs. 10* Under Pirates/Angels

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): I've previously called the D'backs "underrated" and they are, as evident by their +67 run differential, which is third best in the entire National League. But the bottom line is they only have a .500 record on the season after losing to the Dodgers 9-3 yday. As for the Rockies, they're finally back home now after a terrible road trip which saw them go 1-5 overall. But they did win yday - 8-3 over San Diego - and have some major revenge here after being swept down in Arizona last month. Before that, they'd previously beaten the D'backs seven straight times, sweeping them twice in a row. There's no place like Coors Field for the Rocks and they win this series opener. 

At some point, I won't have to point out Colorado's home vs. road splits anymore. But they are as dramatic as ever in 2019 w/ the Rockies averaging 6.5 runs per game at home as opposed to just 4.2 on the road. Conversely, they also give up a lot more runs here in Coors. But I really like this lineup's chances against Arizona starter Merrill Kelly, who has a 10.68 ERA and 1.814 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have been team losses. Kelly has faced the Rockies twice this season and lost both times, giving up 10 total runs in 12 2/3 IP. 

Peter Lambert has had some similar struggles of late for the Rockies. Both of Monday's starters have 1-8 TSR's their last nine outings! So something is going to have to give Monday. Lambert does have a slight edge in that Arizona has never faced him while Colorado is already familiar w/ Kelly. The Rockies did win the last time Lambert started at home, beating San Francisco 5-4. Lambert has been the better pitcher (compared to Kelly) most of the year. Arizona has lost five straight here in Denver. 10* Colorado

8* Over Red Sox/Indians (7:10 ET): This is a very critical series for Boston, who is currently 7.5 games out of the Wild Card in the American League. Cleveland currently occupies one of those two WC spots, but they are also now tied w/ the Twins atop the AL Central after taking three of four in Minnesota over the weekend. Winning the division is out of the question for the Red Sox, who are 16 games back of the first place Yankees in the East. Really, if they were to lose this series, it would be difficult to like Boston's chances of getting back to the playoffs as they would be facing an even larger deficit while having to jump two teams (Oakland, Tampa Bay). 

Everything went right for the Red Sox last year en route to winning their 4th World Series in 15 seasons. But 2019 has proven to be more challenging. The starting rotation has been really lousy. The bullpen has been no better as Sunday marked their 22nd blown save, tied for the most in all of baseball. They lost 5-4 to the Angels, a game in which I had the Under and it still cashed despite going 10 innings. You might look at Monday starter Eduardo Rodriguez's 17-6 TSR and think he's the man to right the ship. But Rodriguez has a 4.19 ERA and 1.315 WHIP. The Over is also 17-6 in those 23 starts, including 11-2 on the road. He's walked 31 batters in his last 61 IP. 

The last time these teams met was back in May and all three games in the series went Over. The fewest number of total runs scored in any game was 12. Of coure, a lot has changed since May. After losing to the Angels both Saturday & Sunday, Boston is just 3-11 their L14 games. Meanwhile, Cleveland is humming along w/ a 42-17 record their L59 games. The Indians go w/ Zach Plesac here. He has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts and is coming off arguably his sharpest effort to date. But Boston does average 5.7 runs per game (3rd most in MLB) and will be a greater challenge than Texas was. The Over is 4-0 for Plesac the L4 times he's been off a quality start. 8* Over Red Sox/Indians

10* Under D'backs/Dodgers (4:05 ET): Hyun-Jin Ryu is back in the Dodgers' rotation here and that's certainly not good news for an Arizona lineup that was blanked yesterday (had only three hits) and is already 0-2 against Ryu this season. To say Ryu is having a great year would be quite the understatement. He's gone 11-2 in 21 starts (16-5 TSR) w/ a 1.66 ERA and 0.943 WHIP. He's been even more unhittable at home where his TSR is a perfect 10-0 w/ a 0.89 ERA and 0.792 WHIP. It was just one missed start for Ryu and I see no reason why he won't resume his dominant ways on Sunday. 

Last night's game was the 13th shutout win of the year for the Dodgers. They are clearly the best team in the National League this season w/ a 78-41 record to go along w/ a +186 run differential. That run differential is the best in baseball, a byproduct of them having allowed the fewest number of runs. Ryu has obviously been a big part of that. Something else to note here is Friday's game went 11 innings and was a 3-2 final. So neither team has done much scoring in this series and that should continue here w/ a third straight Under. 

Mike Leake will oppose Ryu this afternoon. This will be Leake's third start since coming over from Seattle. He has definitely "scattered" plenty of hits in the first two (21 in 11 IP), but has gotten away w/ allowing just eight runs, only six of them earned. Leake has definitely been very good at times this season. While he may seemingly be "up against it" today, I still expect him to pitch well in this spot. Seven of the Dodgers' last eight games have stayed Under and six of those have seen them score no more than four runs themselves. Hopefully, we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth here (Dodgers are big ML favorites), which would obviously be a big "assist" in cashing this bet. 10* Under D'backs/Dodgers

8* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Twins were able to stop the bleeding w/ a 4-1 win over the Indians last night, thereby reclaiming first place in the AL Central for themselves. This is a division that they've led going back to late April. At one point, they were up by as many as 11.5 games on the Indians and the advantage was 7.5 games coming out of the All-Star Break. But that advantage is basically now gone w/ Cleveland having gone 41-17 their L58 games, which is MLB's best record during that stretch. The four-game losing streak that the Twins snapped yday was a season-worst. They still have a run differential that's much better than Cleveland though and look to have the edge in starting pitching Sunday. I'll call for the Twins to eke out a split of this critical series. 

The Twins' breakout season began with them hosting the Indians in the very first series. Jose Berrios started Opening Day and pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings of two-hit ball, striking out 10 in the process. He's subsequently faced the Tribe two more times, both in Cleveland. It was another quality start on June 6th as he again allowed only two hits, this time over six innings (did allow a run). After losing to Berrios twice, the third time was finally the charm for the Indians on July 14th. However, it should be noted that Berrios allowed only three runs in that 4-3 loss. He's off his worst start of the year here, but I have him bouncing back in a major way. 

Cleveland certainly had its chances at the plate last night, but went 1 for 12 w/ RISP and left 10 men on base. This team did a tremendous job in pulling even w/ Minnesota going into yday, but that was a "tall hill to climb" and you have to wonder if they'll now be able to get over the proverbial "hump." It's Aaron Civale starting Sunday, just his third start of the year. The first two have gone well w/ Civale allowing only one run in 12 IP (13 K's). But both starts came at home and were against Detroit and Texas. Let's see how he does vs. the Twins, who are #3 in all of MLB in runs scored. 8* Minnesota

8* Under Angels/Red Sox (1:05 ET): It's been an exchange of blowouts the last two days in Boston with the host Red Sox winning Friday's game 16-4 before going down 12-4 last night. Thursday's opener was alot lower scoring though with the Red Sox winning 3-0. The Angels had lost eight in a row before finally breaking through w/ a win Saturday. Boston's starting pitching has not been good in August (to say the least!), but they did hold the Halos to just four total runs in the first two games of the series. Last night, LA rode one breakout inning, scoring seven times in the 7th. That obviously is unlikely to happen again. They'll revert back today and Boston won't score much either. Take the Under.

While they scored 12 runs last night, the Angels only finished w/ 11 hits. That fateful 7th innings saw them get four men on base who didn't even get a hit (2 walks, 2 HBP). Additionally, there was sloppy play by Boston in the field w/ a passed ball and throwing error. Andrew Cashner is certainly hoping for better play behind him today and you have to figure he will get it. Cashner needs it too as truthfully he hasn't been very good since coming over from Baltimore. His L2 outings were real rough, but I see improvement on the horizon.

Patrick Sandoval is making his second career start here for the Angels. He was quite effective in his big league debut, going five innings and allowing only two runs on three hits. He finished w/ eight strikeouts. While the Red Sox did score 16 times in the win Friday, that was one of just two times in August they've scored more than four runs in a game. The Angels had not beaten the Red Sox since 2017 prior to yday and had been held to two runs or fewer in six of the eight losses. 8* Under Angels/Red Sox 

6* San Diego (8:40 ET): I rode the Padres to an easy 7-1 victory last night and they're even larger ML favorites today. There were two key factors that made San Diego an attractive bet Friday and those were Colorado's offensive decline on the road and the starting pitching matchup. Well, the Rockies definitely didn't show much at the plate last night and the starting pitching matchup for Saturday seems even more heavily slanted in favor of the Padres. As discussed in yday's analysis, while the Rockies average 6.5 rpg at home (#1 in MLB), they drop to 4.2 rpg on the road (28th!). Back the Padres yet again Saturday.

It will be Chris Paddack starting today for the home team. Though he was roughed up in his last start (for six runs), that was against the Dodgers, who are the best team in baseball for my money. Prior to that, Paddack had given up 3 ER or less in seven consecutive outings. He has a 3.19 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 19 starts overall this season. He's been even more dominant at Petco Park w/ a 2.28 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in eight starts. The Padres have gone 6-2 in those eight games as well. In this his rookie season, Paddack has yet to face Colorado. But for the reasons outlined above, getting them in San Diego for the 1st time is a huge advantage.

The Rockies are in pretty bad shape right now as they've lost four straight while giving up 41 runs in the process. San Diego is no offensive juggernaut, yet they've scored 16 runs in two games. Starting for Colorado tonight will be Chi Chi Gonzalez. Whereas opposing hitters are batting just .191 vs. Paddack, they are batting .289 vs. Gonzalez. This will be just the 5th start for Gonzalez this year. He has a 1.729 WHIP. His ERA on the road is 6.75. Furthermore, the Rockies have lost all of his previous four starts. This is a mismatch. 6* San Diego

10* Under A's/White Sox (7:10 ET): After collecting 11 or more hits in five straight games, the White Sox were held to just four Friday afternoon & blanked by the A's, 7-0. I can't say that the offensive regression surprises me. This is a team that is ahead of only Detroit & Miami in runs scored this year. They'd scored 36 runs in those L5 games, winning four of them, but given what we've seen from this club all season you had to figure that wouldn't last. Sure enough it didn't and I feel they're set to be shut down at the plate again tonight. Take the Under. 

The A's are now a perfect 4-0 against the White Sox this season. For this weekend, they would like nothing more than to replicate the sweep they pulled off at home last month at the White Sox expense. They enter the day one-half game behind Tampa Bay for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. Chicago is obviously nowhere near playoff contention. Being only eight games below .500 may not sound all that bad, but the White Sox have been outscored by 116 runs over the course of the season. That's the 4th worst differential in the sport. 

One thing giving the White Sox a "fighting chance" here is that starter Reynaldo Lopez has looked good of late w/ a 2.56 ERA in his L5 starts. But I just can't see him getting much run support tonight. It was a successful A's debut for Tanner Roark last Sunday as he allowed just one run and four hits in 5 IP. Oakland won that game 4-2. Now it's start #2 in an A's uniform for Roark and he gets to face one of the weakest teams in the league. In four games against Oakland this season, Chicago has scored a grand total of only FIVE runs! 10* Under A's/White Sox

10* Under Phillies/Giants (10:15 ET): Sorry Giants' fans, but to quote The Hives, "Hate to Say I Told You So!" Regression has started to take hold here, as I said it would for a variety of reasons. Chief among them was the team's extraordinarily fortunate records in one-run games and extra innings (some obvious overlap there), which couldn't be sustained. The Giants have dropped 7 of 10 overall and I expect the losses to continue to pile up from now until the end of the season. The good news is that they did shut the Phillies out last night, 5-0. I like tonight's game to stay Under as well. 

The Giants had Madison Bumgarner on the bump Thursday and he took a no-hit bid into the sixth inning. The Phillies ended up with just one hit for the entire game. The Giants won't have the luxury of having Bumgarner on the hill tonight, but a Phillies lineup that has produced only one run and 11 hits its last two games simply isn't going to do much damage anyway. Tyler Beede gets the start for SF here. While he's lost his last three starts, one of them to the Phillies 10 days ago, he's had some strong outings this year. Many of them have been here at home where his ERA is a respectable 3.80. Something else to consider is the Giants have not scored more than two runs in any of Beede's last four starts. 

The Giants don't score as much at home as they do on the road, which is odd, but they are not the only team doing that this season. The number of teams averaging fewer runs per game at home compared to the road is surprising, but the Giants take it to a new level, averaging only 3.3 rpg here at Oracle Park (average 5.2 rpg on the road!) Overall, they rank 27th in MLB in runs scored, 28th in batting average and 28th in OPS. That's enough to convince me that Phillies starter Drew Smyly is likely to pitch well in this spot just as he did when he faced the Giants 10 days ago (same game Beede started) and tossed seven shutout innings of four-hit ball. 10* Under Phillies/Giants

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): We all know what happens when you take the Rockies out of Coors Field. Scoring, both their own and from the opponent, drops precipitously. This year, the split has been even more striking than usual. Their own scoring drops from 6.5 runs per game to 4.2 while they allow 2.3 rpg less (7.0 to 4.7) on the road. But we're not playing the Under here as we have so many times previously w/ this Rockies club. Rather, this is a fade as they lost 9-3 to San Diego last night and it should be a similar story here w/ the starting pitching matchup heavily slanted to the Padres. 

Five unearned runs in the sixth inning largely provided the difference for San Diego last night as they scored at least nine runs for the third time in four games. That kind of offensive production is the last thing Colorado wants to hear right now, not just because of their own anemic offense on the road, but also due to who they are sending out to start this game. Kyle Freeland is having a truly miserable campaign w/ a 7.24 ER and 1.61 WHIP in 19 starts. Needless to say, he's unlikely to limit the scoring the way Rockies pitching usually does on the road. Rather, this should be somewhat reminiscent of what they allow at home. 

Freeland has a 2-6 TSR on the road this year. The team had lost his last four starts before beating San Francisco w/ him on the mound on Sunday. I actually took Freeland & the Rockies in that spot, but it was more of a fade against the Giants. In my opinion, Freeland just doesn't "stack up" against Padres' start Cal Quantrill, who has a 1.65 ERA and 1.041 WHIP his L3 starts. Quantrill started a wild 16-12 win over the Rockies at Coors Field in June, which was the last time he faced them. He allowed "only" four runs in that start, so don't be fooled by the final score. He'll pitch better tonight and with the Rockies having allowed a total of 34 runs the L3 games, it should be an easy win for the home team. 10* San Diego

8* Over Indians/Twins (8:10 ET): I whiffed on the total in this matchup last night (had Under), a rare misfire for me in a record-setting run. The last time the Indians and Twins met, all three games in the series did go Under. Furthermore, Cleveland had given up just nine runs in six games coming into this series. But perhaps I underestimated their offense, which scored seven runs for a third time in the last seven games. Most importantly of all (from Cleveland's perspective), last night's win pulled them within one game of the Twins, who once had an 11.5 game lead in the division they have led since April. I'm going Over on Friday night as the number of runs scored should be similar to last night. 

Something else that should be considered is that the Twins are #2 in all of MLB in runs scored, trailing only the Yankees. They couldn't do much against Mike Clevinger last night, but expect more success against Shane Bieber, who starts Friday's game for the Indians. Yes, Bieber has really impressive looking numbers and just tossed a complete game in his last outing. It was his second CG effort in his L3 starts. But might the innings log begin to catch up w/ him? Bottom line is Minnesota should score enough here to help send this one Over the total. The Over is 7-0 the L7 times the Twins have been off a loss. 

Devin Smeltzer has started three times for Minnesota this year and all three games have stayed Under the total. But there's a catch. After starting once in May and once in June, this will be his second start in August. And the one start in June was vs. Cleveland (opposite Bieber) and saw him allow five runs. Smeltzer allowed FOUR home runs, so he's lucky that he didn't give up more runs. Seven of the Twins' last nine games have gone Over and this is only the second time all season they've lost three in a row. They've allowed 30 runs during the losing streak! 8* Over Indians/Twins

10* Under Indians/Twins (8:10 ET): This is a high-stakes series between the only two teams that matter in the American League Central. The Twins currently lead the Indians, as they have all season, but the lead is down to two games. Cleveland has gotten back into this race mainly by taking advantage of the three bad teams in this division. By sweeping yday's doubleheader from Texas, they are now 38-16 since June 4th (best record in baseball during that time). All three games in the last series between these teams (7/12 - 7/14) stayed Under and this one should too. Take the Under. 

Indians' pitching gave up just one run in two games yday, continuing an incredible stretch on the runs allowed side of the ledger. In the last six games, the last five of which have stayed Under, the Tribe has allowed just nine runs total! Mike Clevinger gets the baseball tonight and he comes in w/ a 2.21 ERA his L3 starts. Since the start of July, Clevinger has pitched six times and all six times he's allowed 3 ER or less. In fact, he's allowed just 7 runs total in 37 1/3 IP. He's also 3-0 w/ a 1.80 ERA in his L3 road starts. He has a 2.91 ERA in 11 career games vs. Minnesota. Count on Clevinger to pitch well here.

The Twins actually score more on the road than they do at home, something you can't say about many teams. They are in off a disappointing series w/ Atlanta, which took place right here at Target Field. In losing each of the L2 days, the Twins pitching staff allowed a total of 23 runs. That's more than Cleveland has allowed in its last NINE games. Kyle Gibson toes the rubber tonight. He has a 1.094 WHIP at home this season, which is encouraging. Don't discount the effect that playing two (games) may have on the Indians' hitters coming into tonight. It's not like the Tribe is scoring much of late. In the three games vs. Texas, they scored all of seven times. 10* Under Indians/Twins

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): I used the Diamondbacks yday and they poured it on late en route to an 8-4 victory over the Phillies. The analysis made it pretty clear how I view these two teams. Though they have similar records (Phillies actually better), I believe Arizona is the far better team. While only .500 for the year, they have outscored their opponents by 71 runs, which is now the SECOND best differential in the entire National League! Meanwhile, the Phils have actually been outscored by 21 runs over the course of the year despite being 59-54. Stick w/ the D'backs tonight!

Most teams struggle on the road, but Philadelphia has been downright atrocious when priced in the +125 to +175 range (ML) outside of Citizens Bank Park. They're just 3-12 this season and 26-52 the L3 seasons. Arizona actually has a better record on the road than at home, but they have outscored their opponents for the season here at Chase Field. This game is huge for the D'backs as a win would pull them within 1.5 games of the Phillies (who currently occupy the 2nd Wild Card spot). 

Tonight's starting pitching matchup features a couple hurlers that were acquired at the trade deadline. Jason Vargas made his Phillies' debut last week and looked good, but the end result was still a loss to a bad White Sox team. Vargas has had problems w/ Arizona in the past, posting a 6.82 ERA in six career starts and it's been a decade since he beat them. Vargas has also struggled on the road this year w/ a 5.03 ERA. The D'backs are going w/ Zac Gallen, who was a fantastic pickup from Miami and could potentially replace the departed Zack Greinke as the ace of the rotation. In seven starts this year, Gallen has a 2.73 ERA and the last three have seen him post a 1.40 ERA and 0.879 WHIP. This is no surprise considering how he dominated the Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) w/ a 9-1 record and 1.77 ERA in 14 starts. Moving from a bad Miami team to Arizona will make all the difference for Gallen, in terms of wins and losses. 10* Arizona

8* Under Royals/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Back on Monday, we took the Over in the opener of this three-game set. It pushed as the Red Sox won 7-5. Thus, you may be surprised to see us backing the Under tonight in light of the starting pitching matchup. But Tuesday's game, a 6-2 Royals' win, stayed Under. Boston seemingly can't get out of its own way right now as they've lost 9 of 10 and scored no more than five runs in any of those nine losses. Kansas City isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut as they are batting a collective .219 their L7 games while scoring just 3.7 rpg. Take the Under. 

Glenn Sparkman, the Royals starter for this evening, hardly seems like an ideal candidate for an Under. He's struggled not only of late, but all season on the road. His first start after the All-Star Break did show what he's capable of though as he tossed a complete game five-hitter. He's struggled ever since, but Boston simply isn't hitting right now. Earlier in the season, when the Red Sox were playing much better, Sparkman actually pitched great against them. He allowed just one run and three hits in 5 1/3 IP. The Royals ended up losing 8-3, but I don't see them giving up that many runs this time. 

Red Sox starting pitching has been terrible in this 1-9 stretch, but Eduardo Rodriguez continues to be the one reliable option they have in the rotation. Rodriguez has a 17-6 team start record, including 9-1 here at Fenway Park. He comes off a couple challenging outings against the Yankees, but it's a huge drop in class when facing the Royals. Prior to the B2B starts vs. the Yanks, Rodriguez allowed 2 ER or less in five consecutive starts. He started opposite Sparkman earlier in this season and gave up just two runs in 5 2/3 IP. Look for this to be a relatively low-scoring game. 8* Under Royals/Red Sox

10* Under Yankees/Orioles (7:05 ET): Predictably, the Yankees have come to Baltimore and taken the first two games of this three-game series. They've scored nine runs in both games and now won seven in a row overall. Baltimore is having a truly miserable season as they are 38-75 w/ a -198 run differential. They're just 17-40 at home where they give up a horrifying 6.7 runs per game. No team has allowed more runs to be scored on them this season. But the O's best pitcher, John Means, returns tonight and that should keep the Yankees' scoring down. Take the Under.  

Means was roughed up on 7.13 by Tampa Bay, giving up six runs in his first start after the All-Star Break. But other than that, he's been outstanding in 2019. That's the only start since the start of May where Means allowed more than three runs. He has a 2.67 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 10 home starts, so he's been the exception to the "rule" when it comes to the number of runs the Orioles have allowed here at Camden Yards this season. He has spent the last two weeks on the DL w/ a bicep injury, but should be fine tonight. He has a 1.59 ERA in three previous appearances vs. NY. 

The Yankees have hit 11 HR's in the first two games of this series, but Means usually does a good job at limiting the long ball. As for Baltimore scoring runs, don't expect many. James Paxton is probably considered a disappointment by Yankees' fans, but he just delivered a quality start against Boston last weekend, allowing two runs on six hits. The Red Sox are the third highest scoring team in baseball. Paxton is 3-1 w/ a 3.86 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Orioles, which includes his first two starts of 2019. 10* Under Yankees/Orioles

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): When they dealt Zack Greinke to the Astros last week, the conventional wisdom was that the D'backs were throwing in the towel on the 2019 season. I don't know if I agree with that. While a 7-3 loss to the Phillies last night dropped them to a game below .500, they are by no means "out of it" when it comes to a wide-open Wild Card race in the National League. One positive thing they have going for them is a +67 run differential, which tells me they've played MUCH better than their record. In fact, in terms of actual vs. expected wins, they've underachieved the most at -7 games. Look for them to bounce back Tuesday night at home and beat the Phillies. 

While Arizona has underachieved this season, Philadelphia ought to feel pretty good about their 59-53 record. They've actually been outscored by 17 runs over the course of the season! But they are where a lot of NL teams would like to be right now and that's tied for a WC spot. Still, there are eight teams in the NL w/ better run differentials, Arizona obviously among them. In fact, the D'backs' YTD run differential ranks third best in the Senior Circuit, trailing only the Dodgers and Cubs! Arizona is 5-2 off its last 7 losses while Philly is 1-4 off its previous five wins. 

Last night, the starting pitching matchup was NOT in Arizona's favor, but it looks to be today. Mike Leake is making his D'backs debut here after coming over from Seattle in a trade last week. Leake posted a 2.91 ERA and 0.969 WHIP his L3 starts for the Mariners, which includes a complete game one-hitter. He should pitch better here in the National League and certainly better than Merrill Kelly did yday. Meanwhile, the Phillies got seven very strong innings from Vince Velasquez last night, but Tuesday starter Jake Arrieta hasn't gone that long in a start since Memorial Day. He has a 5.25 ERA and 1.611 WHIP his L7 starts overall. 10* Arizona

8* Under White Sox/Tigers (1:10 ET): These are two of the absolute worst teams in baseball and Tuesday they'll be "treating" us to a day/night doubleheader. Monday saw the White Sox prevail 7-4 here at Comerica Park. While the Tigers are now 32-76 w/ a -213 run differential (both worst in the league), don't be shy about selling the White Sox down the stretch. Though a more "reasonable" 49-61 on the year, they've actually been outscored by 114 runs, meaning they've eclipsed their expected win total by six games (they have roughly the same run diff as 40-74 Kansas City for a frame of reference). With these being two of the three lowest-scoring teams in MLB, Under seems like an easy call for Game 1 today. 

The Tigers are abysmal. There's really no other way to say it. Yesterday was their fourth loss in a row (scored 4 runs in every game) and they are 4-19 since the Break. No team has scored fewer runs this year and they average only 3.2 per game here at home. If there is a positive for them, at least for this 1st game, it's that Daniel Norris will be on the mound. He's looked good recently w/ a 1.76 ERA his L3 starts. During that time, Norris has given up just three runs in 15 1/3 IP. He has a reasonable 3.96 ERA in eight career games vs. Chicago. The Under is 7-1-1 his last nine home starts. 

White Sox starter Dylan Cease hasn't been as good as Norris recently, but at least he's backed by a bullpen that has been pretty sharp. Cease did go seven innings his last time out, which was the longest of his five starts so far. The last three have all stayed Under and two of the last four have seen Chicago get shutout. Even though the White Sox have scored 17 runs the past two games, they are still averaging less than 2.0 per game over the L8 contests while collectively batting barely over .200. Cease made his big league debut against the Tigers on July 3rd and gave up three runs in 5 IP. He'll likely pitch better this second go-around. 8* Under White Sox/Tigers 

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): With a 16.5 game lead, the Dodgers are all but assured of winning the NL West again. They are also seven full games ahead of the rest of the National League, meaning the playoffs will very likely be going through Chavez Ravine. But don't think for a second that Dodger Blue will be lacking for motivation down the stretch. They proved that Sunday by coming from behind to defeat the Padres 11-10. They're now 43-15 at home this year. Motivation shouldn't be lacking on Monday either as they welcome in St. Louis for a three-game set. The Cardinals previously swept them, but that was back in April and in St. Louis. As we saw yet again over the weekend, the Cards simply aren't the same team on the road.

The Redbirds were beaten in both games out in Oakland over the weekend and that dropped them from 1st place in the NL Central. I can't really say that they were worthy of that 1st place distinction either; they have a +19 run differential compared to the Cubs' +76. The somewhat telling home vs. road splits St. Louis experiences are perhaps best exemplified by the starting rotation as virtually all of the pitchers see their numbers go up outside of Busch Stadium. Monday starter Michael Wacha simply isn't that good to begin with as he has a 5.05 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in all 14 of his starts this year. He's been working out of the bullpen for the last month and lasted started a game on 7.4. He started against LA earlier in the year and didn't last long (3 2/3 innings) as he gave up seven runs. 

The Dodgers have a really strong rotation, but it will be an unfamiliar name going here in rookie Tony Gonsolin, who starts in place of Hyun-Jin Ryu (who was placed on the DL). Gonsolin's only previous start this year came on 6.26 vs. Arizona. Admittedly, it didn't go all that well w/ him allowing six runs. But he did recently throw at the big league level (as in last week) and held Colorado to one run in four innings and that was at Coors Field. As we saw yday, Gonsolin should get plenty of run support here. The Dodgers got to Wacha when they faced him in April, only to still lose 11-7. It'll be a different story this time around. 8* LA Dodgers 

10* Over Royals/Red Sox (7:10 ET): What a disastrous week it was for the Red Sox as they lost every game and now find themselves 6.5 games back of the Rays, not to mention 14.5 behind the Yankees. Those two division foes were the teams responsible for every loss during Boston's current slide, which hit eight straight after a 7-4 loss to the Yanks last night. Fortunately, this week sets up a little easier, certainly at first as the Sox welcome lowly Kansas City to town. The Royals have lost six in row themselves, so "something's gotta give" here. I believe we're going to see plenty of runs scored tonight. Take the Over. 

During their eight-game slide, Boston has surrendered 58 runs or an average of more than 7.0 per game. With Rick Porcello on the mound tonight, that average isn't likely to dip. Porcello has been terrible of late w/ an 8.10 ERA and 1.74 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have gone Over the total. His last one saw him give up six runs, in just 5 2/3 IP, and three home runs. It was the fifth time in his last seven starts that Porcello allowed five or more earned runs. He's allowed 10 HR's during that time and has a 9.35 ERA/1.875 WHIP! At least Boston has the third highest scoring offense in MLB at 5.7 rpg.

That brings us to Kansas City, who has given up 45 runs during its losing streak of six games. That's an average of 7.5 rpg and they've got Mike Montgomery going tonight, which doesn't seem like it will help those numbers. Montgomery has made only three starts so far and has a 7.94 ERA and 1.765 WHIP. The Red Sox swept the Royals in the only previous series between the teams this year, scoring 23 runs in the three games. With two bad pitchers and one of the top offenses in the game, Over is an easy call here. 10* Over Royals/Red Sox 

8* Over Brewers/Pirates (7:05 ET): As I suspected might be the case, Jordan Lyles took advantage of a new "lease on life" in his first start for the Brewers. Just days after being traded away from Pittsburgh, Lyles allowed just one runs and three hits and got the win in his Milwaukee debut, 4-2 in Oakland. However, we shouldn't forget that was Lyles' best performance in ages. His Pirates' tenure ended w/ him going 0-6 over his final eight starts (0-8 TSR) and he still has a 9.34 ERA and 2.153 WHIP his L7 starts overall. He'll face his former team tonight and I expect it to be a high-scoring game. Take the Over.

While there's no doubt that Lyles struggled w/ the Pirates, being on a bad team certainly didn't help. As I predicted would happen, the Pirates have been in a free-fall. Since the All-Star Break, they've lost 18 of 22 games and they were just soundly beaten on Sunday, 13-2 by the Mets. Throughout the season, the Over has always been a safe bet w/ the Bucs as it's gone 63-42-6 in all games, including 6-1 the L7. That's the 3rd highest Over rate in the league this season. One positive for Pittsburgh going into this one is they've had plenty of success against their former teammate (Lyles) in the past. In 13 career appearances, some of them coming w/ Milwaukee in a previous stint, Lyles is 1-5 w/ a 6.99 ERA against the Pirates.

Of course, the Brew Crew are slumping right now too as they just got swept by the Cubs over the weekend. A big problem for them has been lack of offense as they have scored just 14 runs in the last six games. On Saturday & Sunday, they went 1 for 12 w/ RISP. But the good news is this still a strong lineup, one that should bounce back against Pirates starter' Dario Agrazal, who has given up 5 HR in his past two starts. Pittsburgh has given up a ton of runs per game (5.9!) all season here at PNC Park and that doesn't figure to change anytime soon. 8* Over Brewers/Pirates 

10* Under Cardinals/A's (4:07 ET): Though being contested at an American League Park, which means both teams get to use a DH, I see Sunday's game between the Cardinals and A's staying Under the total.  Oakland is now 3-0 vs. St. Louis this year after an emphatic 8-3 win last night. That loss hurt the Cards more than usual as it dropped them out of first place in the NL Central. Oakland is also fighting for a playoff spot over in the American League, though they're likely confined to a Wild Card opportunity as they now trail Houston by 8.5 games. If the regular season ended today, the Athletics would be one of the AL's two WC teams. Take the Under. 

St. Louis was shutout for the first five innings yday. What's interesting about that is they'd been shutout Wednesday by the Cubs (2-0) before posting a shutout of their own (8-0) on Thursday. So for awhile there, it appeared as if we might be headed for a third straight shutout involving the Cards. They managed to score three times in the final four innings though, but still there's been only one time in the last six games that they've scored more than three runs total. Oakland typically does a good job at limiting its opponents from scoring here at home where it allows only 3.9 runs per game. 

On paper, it would appear as if both of today's starting pitchers are struggling lately. But in the case of Adam Wainwright, it was just one bad outing in Cincinnati. He's allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his eight starts since the start of June otherwise. Last time out, he held the Cubs to just one run. Three previous starts vs. Oakland have resulted in a 1.14 ERA for Wainwright. Tanner Roark will be making his A's debut here, but he's no stranger to facing St. Louis as he comes over from Cincinnati. Roark has started twice against the Cardinals in 2019 and he's allowed just three runs in 10 1/3 IP.  10* Under Cardinals/A's

10* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Giants won yday and of course it was by just a run (6-5). Since July 18th, all but one of the team's nine victories have come by that exact margin. At least they didn't win in extra innings Saturday, a scenario which has seen them go an extraordinarily fortunate 7-0 since the Break. If it sounds like I'm being bitter, yes I did have the Rockies last night, but it goes beyond that. San Francisco is a total fraud as they are a game over .500 this year despite being outscored by 51 runs. I'll gladly fade them again Sunday just as I have four of the last five days (won the first three times).

It's very surprising to see that Colorado has scored just five runs in each of the first two games of this series. After all, they lead all of MLB in runs per game at home (as per usual) w/ 6.5. They dug an early hole last night, falling behind 4-0 in the first inning, but were able to climb out and eventually take a 5-4 lead going into eighth. That's when the Giants' Buster Posey struck w/ a pinch-hit, 2-run double to give his team the lead and eventual win. The Giants have won 5 of their last 6 in Coors Field, but again I remain highly skeptical as going by YTD run differential, they are the biggest overachievers when it comes to win expectancy in the entire National League. 

The Giants won't have Madison Bumgarner on the bump today. Rather, it will be Tyler Beede, who has a 5.57 ERA and 1.571 WHIP on the road this season. Coors Field is obviously the toughest place to pitch in all of baseball (high altitude) and this will be Beede's first time ever starting a game here. The Rockies go w/ Kyle Freeland, who has struggled this year after a tremendous 2018. But he's always pitched well against the Giants w/ a 3.09 ERA in 10 starts. I've made my feelings about San Francisco well-known and am not about to come off that position. 10* Colorado

7* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): Look for the Rays to finish off the quick two-game sweep here and make it six (wins) in a row overall. Honestly, I've been a bit surprised to see TB continue to win at their current percentage. Key for them was sweeping the Red Sox earlier in the week, in Boston. Yesterday's win allowed them to stay one-half game ahead of Oakland, who is also hosting a short two-game interleague set this week. Of course, we know the Rays are better than the Marlins. Their Floridian rivals are clearly the worst team over in the National League w/ a .389 win percentage, -102 run differential and they are the lowest scoring team on the Senior Circuit as well. 

Tampa won yday's game w/ some offense, prevailing 8-6. They homered four times. Miami simply isn't built to win games like that as they are averaging only 3.5 runs per game on the road. Meanwhile, the Rays are holding visitors to an average of only 3.9 rpg here at home. So yday should be considered a "missed opportunity" for the Marlins. Don't expect Rays pitching today to be so generous. Starting will be Yonny Chirnos. While he's off a rough outing in Toronto, Chirnos' still has really solid numbers for the season and should bounce back here.

Not known for their offense, the Rays have scored a total of 50 runs in their L6 games. That's bad news for Miami starter Caleb Smith, who often struggles on the road. Contrast his 2.28 ERA and 0.972 WHIP at home w/ a 4.17 ERA and 1.027 WHIP on the road. Smith did finish July w/ a 5-0 team start record, all but one a quality start. But he's up against a really strong opponent here. The Rays are now 3-0 vs. the Marlins in 2019 and 9-4 in all interleague contests. They've won 22 of the last 32 times they've been a home favorite of more than -175 on the moneyline. 7* Tampa Bay

8* Under Angels/Indians (1:10 ET): This series has seen the Indians maintain their mastery over the Angels here at Progressive Field. The teams' last 15 meetings here in Cleveland have seen the home team win 14 times, including 7-3 and 7-2 the last two days. I'm banking on today's game being a little lower scoring as we've got two pretty good starters on the mound and it's not as if the Indians are some kind of offensive juggernaut. They are however #2 in fewest runs allowed in the entire American League (and #3 overall in MLB). Take the Under. 

The Tribe will go w/ Shane Bieber on Sunday. Last time out, Bieber lost for the first time in a month, but don't put the blame on his shoulders. He allowed only two runs in seven innings vs. Houston, but it was a hard-luck final of 2-0. His start prior to that was a complete game, one-hit shutout in Toronto. Bieber has allowed 3 ER or fewer in eight of his last nine starts overall, going at least six innings on seven different occasions. For the season, he has a 0.998 WHIP, which is third best in the American League. He's also top 10 in ERA. All but five of his 20 starts this season have stayed Under the total. 

The Angels counter w/ Jaime Barria, who should keep his team in this one. Barria has started five times this year and the Under is a perfect 5-0! He's gone exactly five innings every time out and last time surrendered only three runs (one unearned) and four hits. I concede that Cleveland has been on a real offensive surge lately, but consider some of the competition. The Under is 37-17-1 in the Indians' last 55 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Being that the home team is such a big favorite on the ML here, the hope is we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth. 8* Under Angels/Indians

10* Colorado (8:10 ET): The Giants got a taste of their own medicine last night, losing a one-run game here in Colorado, 5-4. For the Rockies, it was sweet revenge as they'd previously been swept by San Francisco here at Coors Field, last month. Now why did I call it a "taste of their own medicine" for the Giants, you ask? Well this is a team that has completely overachieved by going a MLB-best 26-11 in one-run games this year (very lucky!), including 8-2 since the All-Star Break. They've also somehow managed to go 7-0 in extra inning games since the Break. Anyone who's been privy to my analysis lately should know which way I'm going Saturday. Take the Rockies.

With Madison Bumgarner on the hill Saturday, most are not going to want to fade the Giants. But I have no hesitation fading a team that has been outscored by 52 runs this season, which is the third worst differential in the entire National League! Thus, it's almost improbable that the team has managed a .500 record to this point. At previous points in the season, there have been several other teams (Tigers, White Sox, Pirates) that I've decided to start fading regularly when their won-loss record and run differential don't "jive." The Giants are just the latest on the list. In terms of actual vs. expected wins, the latter based on run differential, SF is tied (w/ the White Sox) for being the biggest overachiever in all of MLB. 

Bumgarner was supposed to start Friday, but got pushed back a day. That definitely helped the Rockies last night as "MadBum" has a 3-0 TSR against them this season. But this is a team that averages 6.5 runs per game at home and two of those three losses came on the road. They counter w/ Jon Gray in this spot & he's got a 7-3 TSR this season at Coors w/ surprisingly good numbers given the nature of the park. Last time out, Gray went eight innings against the Dodgers and allowed just one run on three hits. Just a tremendous performance. He's allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his past eight starts. 10* Colorado 

8* Under Tigers/Rangers (8:05 ET): These teams have now played four times this season and Texas has won all four. That can't really be considered a surprise given the overall ineptitude of Detroit, who now has the worst overall record in baseball at 32-73 and has been outscored by 204 runs! Nor is it a surprise that all four Tigers-Rangers matchups this year have stayed Under the total. After all, Detroit also happens to be the lowest scoring team in all of baseball. I look for that Under streak to continue Saturday as Detroit will have its best starting pitcher on the mound as well. 

Rangers' home games typically are high scoring as they both average and allow 5.6 runs per game here in Arlington. Starter Adrian Sampson has really struggled of late, but there's a catch - his last four outings have all been on the road. While Rangers' home games might typically be higher scoring than other places, Sampson pitches better here at Globe Life Park. He has a 3.37 ERA and 1.30 WHIP here, which are both well down from his numbers on the road. The last time Sampson pitched at home, he gave up only one run in seven innings. Facing the lowest scoring team in MLB definitely helps his case tonight. 

One of the few bright spots in this horrendous season for Detroit has been Matthew Boyd. He's off a really strong showing in Seattle where he allowed just one run and three hits in 6 1/3 innings. Of course, the Tigers still lost 3-2, but for our purposes here that is largely irrelevant. It was also the fourth time in the last six starts that Boyd finished w/ 10+ strikeouts. Unfortunately (for him) he is again unlikely to get much in the way of run support as last night marked just the third time in the last 10 games that the Tigers scored more than 2 runs! 8* Under Tigers/Rangers 

10* Under Blue Jays/Orioles (7:05 ET): This figured to be a favorable series for Toronto and so far it has been w/ them taking the first two games, 11-2 and 5-2. Baltimore pitching has been horrendous all season, so it's got to be disheartening to score only two runs as not many teams can win that way, but especially this one. We have what appears to be two struggling starters on the mound tonight, so it's rather surprising I would be on the Under, but I expect the O's scoring issues to continue while the Blue Jays aren't exactly a great offensive team either. 

Toronto has now won a season-best five in a row and six of their last seven. During this time, they've scored 7+ runs five times. They've homered seven times in this series so far, which has accounted for 11 of their 16 runs scored. Tonight, they face Dylan Bundy, whose 1-9 team start record at home definitely gives you pause. But Bundy pitched well in his only previous start vs. the Jays this season, holding them to one run and three hits in 6 2/3 IP. Baltimore won the game 4-1, which was an easy Under. The Under is 11-4-2 in Bundy's last 17 starts overall. 

The Jays will go w/ Thomas Pannone, who is making just his fifth start of the year. Quite frankly, the previous four have not gone well, but he has faced Baltimore twice this year in a relief role and those did go well. He's kept them scoreless in five innings and the O's lineup he'll see tonight is about as weak as ever. Pannone is off his best effort (in the starter's role) to date as he held Kansas City to three runs and five hits in six innings. Look for him to build off that as Toronto pitching continues its mastery over Baltimore. The Under is 40-16-1 the L57 meetings between these AL East rivals. 10* Under Blue Jays/Orioles

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): Oh, do I love this play. Let's start w/ what we've previously discussed about the Giants. Their 2nd half record of 14-6 is a complete fraud as they've gone a ridiculously fortunate 7-0 in extra inning games and 8-1 in games decided by one-run. While they are currently a game above .500, they've actually been outscored by 51 runs over the course of the season and that's the third worst differential in the entire National League! The Rockies have revenge here as they were swept by the Giants last month, right here in Coors Field. Not this time, folks. 

I played every game of the Giants last series, which was in Philadelphia. I won twice w/ the Phillies, once as my top play for July, and once w/ the Under (which was my 10* Total of the Month). The Giants did win that game where I had the Under, 5-1, but that was their first and only win in the last two weeks by more than a single run! The pitching change for the Giants here certainly works to our advantage as it will be Shaun Anderson going instead of Madison Bumgarner. Anderson has a 5.06 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in 14 starts this year and the numbers have only gotten worse since the All-Star Break. I shouldn't have to tell you that Coors Field is the toughest place to pitch in all of MLB. Anderson was rocked for five runs in just 4 1/3 innings here last month. 

But homefield advantage didn't matter the last time these teams met as the Rockies would go on to turn in a terrible month overall. They finished July at 6-19, pretty much ending their playoff hopes, but getting a measure of revenge in this series could keep them afloat. Starter Peter Lambert has an 0-7 TSR his L7 times out, but he's been better of late, reminiscint of the pitcher who opened his big league career w/ B2B wins over the Cubs. The Rockies should certainly supply Lambert w/ adequate support as they are averaging 6.5 rpg here at home this season. They had yesterday off while the Giants were in Philly, which is another advantage. 10* Colorado

10* Under Reds/Braves (7:20 ET): My condolences to anyone reading that had the Under in last night's Reds-Braves games. That looked like it would be a sure winner as the game was 4-1 in the 7th w/ several runs to spare (total was 9.5). Unfortunately, due to rain, the game was then called. As you know, that renders any O/U play as a "no action." The weather forecast in Atlanta looks a lot better Friday and thus I'm going to jump on the Under tonight based not only on what I saw last night, but also the kind of scores we're used to seeing from Cincinnati. Take the Under here. 

I expect the Braves to win again tonight and if so, that means the bottom of the ninth may not have to be played. That's always a nice luxury when playing the Under, but it's also one we may not need given the dearth of hitting from the Reds' lineup recently. Six of the last seven games have seen them held to four runs or fewer and they are already one of the NL's lower scoring teams. That's "music to the ears" of tonight's starter for Atlanta, Kevin Gausman, who has admittedly struggled lately. But his previous home start saw him allow just 1 run and 5 hits in 7 IP.

The Reds may not score much, but they don't give up a lot of runs either. In fact, the only NL team that's allowed fewer runs this season would be the Dodgers! Alex Wood is now back and part of the rotation after back spasms caused him to miss the first three months of the season. His first start came against Colorado and he allowed just two runs in 4 2/3 IP. The Reds won the game 3-2. This one should see a highly motivated Wood as he faces the team that drafted him. Three of the four meetings between these teams this season have seen six or fewer total runs scored. 10* Under Reds/Braves