6* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Indians have left "plenty on the table," in my opinion, as a series that "should" see them up 2-0, instead has them down 0-2. Yes, I am fully aware that the Tribe was beaten badly in both games, but the reality of the matter is this is an opponent they should be dominating, not the other way around. Somehow, they are just 4-8 vs. the Twins this year, which is a stark departure from how both clubs have otherwise performed in AL Central tilts. As mentioned in yday's analysis (yes, I was on the Indians), Cleveland has gone an impressive 26-8 combined vs. the Tigers, White Sox and Royals, the other three teams in the division. Meanwhile, Minnesota is just 6-21 against that aforementioned trio. I simply cannot see the Indians, whose +86 run differential remains the AL's best, losing again at home to a Twins team that sports a -68 run differential.

More shocking is that Minnesota has beaten Cleveland's two top pitchers, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco, and beat both up severely. Still, even with those shocking results, Cleveland remains #1 in the American League in terms of run suppression, having given up just 430 runs in 104 games. (For the sake of comparison, Minnesota has given up an AL-high 551 runs in 106 games. That's a little more than a full run per game over the course of the season). Looking at today's pitching matchup, it's difficult to envision things not reverting back to the "way they were" before this series got underway. The Twins' Tyler Duffey sports an unsightly 13.51 ERA and 2.803 WHIP his L3 starts after lasting all of four innings total his L2 and giving up 11 runs. Going back to May 20th, Duffey has allowed at least four runs in 11 of 13 outings. That includes giving up four opposite the pitcher he'll again face today, Trevor Bauer. Bauer allowed only 3 ER that day, but his performance was undone by a shaky Indians bullpen, which ended up losing the game in 11 innings. That bullpen has since been shored up by the arrival of Andrew Miller, who they'd obviously love to see make an appearance here. Bauer has a 1.108 WHIP in eight starts at home this year. Note there have been only two times all year that Minnesota has won more than three games in a row. Those two times came in April and May. 6* Cleveland

8* Milwaukee (3:40 ET): The Brew Crew arrived in San Diego Monday fresh off a surprising sweep (at home) of the Pirates over the weekend. They've managed to split the two games so far at Petco Park (won 3-2 yday) and I believe stand an excellent chance to take the series here on Getaway Day. I say this not just because the Padres are a bad team in general, but they are particularly brutal in the day time (just 9-25, worst record in all of MLB) as well. Furthermore, today's pitching matchup seems squarely in the favor of Milwaukee, whose staff has held opponents in check (.231 BA) the last seven days to begin with. In four of six meetings this year, San Diego has scored three runs or fewer against Brewers' pitching.

As is the case with San Diego, it's also a lost season for Milwaukee. But you have to like a couple of the starters in the latter's rotation. One being Junior Guerra, who gets the starting nod today and has been the biggest money maker on the staff. That's owed to an 11-5 team start record (6-0 L6 vs. teams w/ losing records) w/ four wins also coming as a dog of +120 or higher on the money line. Opponents are batting just .201 against him. He's got a 2.70 ERA and 1.045 WHIP for the season and on the road, the team has won six of his seven starts. Lately, he's been even sharper than usual w/ a 1.29 ERA and 0.952 WHIP his L3 turns. Unfortunately, the team has lost twice during that span, but note they were an underdog on the ML in all three games and faced Pittsburgh (twice) and the Cubs. It's telling he's favored here, as he should be, considering the way he shut the Padres out for six innings back in May, holding them to just two hits.

The Brewers' other good starter (Zach Davies) shut this Padres lineup down last night, holding them to two runs and six hits in 5 2/3 IP. It was the fourth time in five games that the Padres were held to two runs (or fewer) and six hits (or fewer). That's a troubling sign when Edwin Jackson is about to toe the rubber as he comes in sporting a 5.19 ERA and 1.558 WHIP after three starts. His last one saw him get tagged for six runs by the Reds and that was here at home. The Brew Crew lineup is now stronger w/ the return of Ryan Braun (homered yday) and promotion of Orlando Arcia. 8* Milwaukee

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Though these teams enter today tied in the standings (47-58), there's a massive discrepancy between the two that I don't feel is being properly reflected in the line. The Angels, though 11 games below .500, have actually outscored their opponents this season by the slightest of margins (1 run). Meanwhile, Oakland sports the worst run differential in the entire American League at -81. So the old adage of "throw the records out the window" certainly does apply here. Furthermore, the Halos have won 8 of 10 home games since the Break and have justified the select number of times they've been in this price range this season (2-0 at -150 to -175 at home). I'm on the home team tonight and would not be surprised to see them dominate this series.

We have two starting pitchers going tonight that have less than stellar numbers over the long term, but recently both Sean Manea and Matt Shoemaker have pitched admirably. Manaea carries a 1.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP his L3 starts while Shoemaker is at 2.91 and 0.969. But Shoemaker has been a little better over the course of the season, especially at home. The last time he started here, he tossed a complete game shutout w/ 13 strikeouts and no walks. That dropped his ERA/WHIP to 3.23/1.132 here, so he's probably deserving of better than a 3-6 team start record. Manaea, meanwhile, has been largely feast or famine. While he hasn't allowed a single run in three of his last five outings, there was one where he allowed six runs at Minnesota and then last time out he yielded 11 hits in 6 2/3 IP. Both those starts came on the road where his ERA/WHIP is 6.99/1.553 for the year. 

Oakland also just got swept in Cleveland, including an 8-0 loss Sunday. Again, I'd consider them to possibly be the worst team in the entire AL right now. Getting back to the starting pitching match, Shoemaker has faced the A's twice this year and has allowed only one run (on seven hits) in 12 IP. Personally, I think he's pitched a lot better than his record indicates as his ERA was actually lower than that of Hector Santiago, who was just traded to Minnesota after an outstanding July. He'll lead the team to victory here. 8* LA Angels

5* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians took a very bad loss yday, falling 12-5 to the Twins. With the surging Tigers (won 6 straight) now "hot on their heels" in the American League Central, that's the kind of result that the Tribe simply cannot afford right now. They're actually just 4-6 overall vs. Minnesota this year, which defies logic when you consider how the two teams have been at opposite ends of the division basically all year and that Cleveland is a combined 26-8 vs. the Tigers, White Sox and Royals. They still sport a +90 run differential (best in the AL) though and will be sending Carlos Carrasco to the bump Tuesday. I view this as an obvious bounce back spot for the heavily favored team.

It doesn't happen often, but Cleveland typically bounces back after giving up 10+ runs the previous game. They are 3-1 in that situation this year and 13-7 over the last three seasons. Having Carrasco toe the rubber definitely helps as he brings in a 2.45 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 15 starts, 11 of those resulting in team victories. He's looked very good of late w/ a 0.75 WHIP his L3 starts as he's allowed only eight hits in 18+ innings of work. Going all the way back to the start of June, there have been only two occasions (in 11 starts) where Carrasco has yielded more than three runs and one of those saw four of the five runs charged be unearned. Clearly, this is a pitcher worthy of this price range. 

  Making the previous Indians-Twins results all the more confounding is the fact the latter is just 6-21 in all other division contests. We're talking about a matchup of the team w/ the best run differential in the American League against the team with the second worst run differential. Minnesota is still only 18-32 on the road this year and Cleveland has outscored its opponents by an impressive 1.4 rpg margin here at home. It is difficult to envision Kyle Gibson going "toe to toe" w/ Carrasco as he has a 5.14 ERA and 1.429 WHIP on the road. After allowing four runs and 10 hits in a start last month, Gibson now has a 5.80 career ERA vs. the Indians. Home teams typically bounce back from a loss like the one the Tribe took last night and when they're the significantly better side, it's all but guaranteed. 5* Cleveland

10* Texas (7:05 ET):  Despite this being a battle of division leaders, truth be told, I'm not sure how sold I am on either club over the long-term. Both the Rangers and Orioles have outperformed their respective run differentials this season, in terms of wins and losses, and have much better records at home than on the road. That last little tidbit would seem to favor Baltimore this week, but for tonight's series opener I'll be on Texas, who just bolstered their roster yday and has the much better starting pitcher going. The Rangers arrive in Camden Yards fresh off a sweep of the Royals while the O's haven't been playing particularly well of late. An extra-innings win Sunday snapped what had been a five-game losing streak. 

Yu Darvish is a big key to this game for Texas. Since rejoining the rotation in mid-July, the team is a surprising 0-3 with him on the mound. Overall, they've lost his L4 starts. But the blame there certainly should not be placed at the feet of Darvish, who has allowed 2 ER or less in each of those four starts and has delivered B2B quality outings w/ a 17-1 KW rate. He's previously been on a pitch count, but for tonight it sounds as if they'll finally let him throw 100+ pitches, if needed. Darvish was in line for a win his last time out as he gave up just four hits (only two after the 1st inning) over six innings, but the bullpen ruined things.  I make Texas the favorite in the AL West after yday's acquisitions of Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran.

  Though they got Wade Miley from Seattle at the deadline, starting pitching remains a major concern in Baltimore as the starting rotation has one of the worst collective ERA's (4.81, 26th) in all of baseball. Taking Chris Tillman out of the equation, the team is just 40-41 in all other games. The team's offensive numbers have dipped rather dramatically of late w/ the lineup batting a collective .201 the past seven games while scoring just 3.0 runs per. Tonight's starter Dylan Bundy has given up five home runs in three starts so far and has yet to make it through six full innings. Texas is 9-2 head to head w/ Baltimore since the start of last season. 10* Texas

    

10* Under Red Sox/Mariners (10:10 ET): You have to feel for Seattle here as it had to be a brutal flight home after blowing a six-run lead last night in Chicago and losing in 12 innings. Those six runs all came early (hit three 2-run HR's in first three innings) off Cubs' spot starter Brian Matsuz, but from that point on, the offense simply didn't do much (just five hits in final nine innings). In comes the top offense in baseball on Monday as Boston will be looking to make it B2B wins for the first time since starting 5-1 after the Break. Another streak though, more pertinent to this play, is that the Red Sox have now gone Under in five consecutive games. I had the Under in one of those games (Thurs vs. Angels) and will now do the same in the opener of a new series.

Because of Boston's offensive numbers, we're able to now take advantage of high O/U lines on a consistent basis. With one exception, there hasn't been a single time that a Red Sox game has had a total below 9.0 in the second half. I actually had and cashed the Under in that one exception, a Sunday night game vs. the Yankees back on 7.17. In the team's last series opener, Thursday vs. the Angels, it was a 1-0 game entering the bottom of the ninth inning (they ended up losing), but still that was another easy winner on The Under for me. Key is that the team is batting only .239 its L7 games w/ an average of 3.9 rpg scored. Tonight, they'll face James Paxton, who is off B2B quality starts w/ a 15-2 KW rate. Those two starts saw him silence two of the top offenses in the game, Pittsburgh and Toronto, who managed only four total runs off him in 12 IP. The final result of his last start (10-1 loss in Pittsburgh) is misleading as the bullpen gave up a ton of runs.

Boston will go w/ Eduardo Rodriguez, whose numbers for the season are admittedly not pretty, but lately he's been better. He has a 3.06 ERA over his L3 starts (Under 3-0!), giving up only six runs (in 17 2/3 IP) during that time. I should mention that the Red Sox offense had been held scoreless for the first eight innings of yday's game before B2B homers in the top of the ninth won the game. The Under has actually now cashed in each of Boston's last eight road games. It's also 4-1-1 the last six times Seattle has returned home from a road trip of seven days or more.  10* Under Red Sox/Mariners

6* Washington (9:40 ET): Stephen Strasburg rebounded nicely from his first defeat of 2016 (7/21 at LA) by tossing seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball at Cleveland on Wednesday. That improved his record to 14-1 this season and the team has won 17 of his 19 starts overall. Monday night provides an opportunity to face one of the weakest opponents possible as reeling Arizona will be the host. Normally, playing as the road team presents some sort of disadvantage, but not here at Chase Field where the visitors have gone a shocking 35-17 over the course of 2016. The D'backs home record is the second worst in all of baseball, with only Atlanta being inferior. Washington enters the day as one of only three teams w/ 30 road wins. I'll be going with them.

This shapes up to be a pretty severe pitching mismatch with Archie Bradley starting opposite Strasburg. Bradley may not be giving up a ton of runs lately, but his WHIP is still relatively high (1.444 L3 starts), which indicates to me that he's been a little lucky with the number of baserunners actually allowed compared to the number that have scored. He's walked 11 batters over his L3 starts. As I said earlier, Arizona has not been playing well of late as they've dropped 14 of 19 and were hammered on Sunday, 14-3, by the Dodgers. It was the second time in that series they failed to protect a lead of three runs or greater and you can expect more of that moving forward as it's now a "bullpen by committee" after sending closer Brad Ziegler to Boston.

Meanwhile, I don't see any issues with Washington from a pitching perspective here as they have Strasburg to do the heavy lifting and then the recently acquired Mark Melancon (led MLB w/ 51 saves last year) to finish things off. Strasburg has allowed 1 or 0 ER in five of his last six starts and in all of those, he lasted at least 6 2/3 innings. There aren't many teams in baseball that have struggled more in series openers than has Arizona, who have dropped nine in a row. The price range isn't kind to them either as they're 0-4 this season when priced as a home dog between +150 and +175 on the money line. This is the first meeting of the year of these two clubs and it should go as you would expect. 6* Washington

7* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Admittedly, this isn't a great spot/situation for the Cubs. There's the potential for a letdown after last night's thrilling 7-6, come from behind victory over Seattle, a game which went 12 innings. Usually, I try and avoid (or even go against!) teams that played on the ESPN Sunday Night telecast, come Monday. But, if you're Joe Maddon, then you have to feel pretty good about the last 24 hours. The Cubs were able to win a game where they got a spot start from Brian Matusz (no thanks to Matusz!) and now have Kyle Hendricks at their disposal tonight. That's the key to this one as Hendricks actually sports the lowest WHIP among the team's normal starting rotation. He has been outstanding all year here at Wrigley.

In 10 home starts, Hendricks has a 1.26 ERA and 0.855 WHIP. The Cubs have won eight of those games. He's working on a nice little scoreless streak here at the "Friendly Confines," not having allowed a run here in 12 1/3 innings. Over his L4 starts here, he's allowed only two runs, one of them unearned, in 23 2/3 innings. That goes back to a magnificent 12 strikeout, no walk performance against Pittsburgh back on June 19th. Though he took the loss in Chicago (U.S. Cellular Field) his last time out, Hendricks still was sharp as 64 of his 97 pitches went for strikes and he induced 14 swings and misses + seven ground outs. Over his L13 appearances, his ERA is 1.78 and he has a 1.96 career ERA (three starts) vs. Miami. Hendricks will be leaned on heavily here, but I feel will deliver, thanks to the extra day of rest.

I have barely even mentioned the Cubs' opponent for this game. The Marlins did take three of four from the Cubs, at home, back in June. But the game against Hendricks is the one they dropped as they managed just one hit off him in five innings. The Fish were able to salvage a split, again at home, with St. Louis over the weekend, thereby preserving their spot as the second Wild Card in the National League. But, even with what happened the last time these teams faced off, there can be no denying that the Cubs (+164 run differential) are the much better team and Miami starter Adam Conley sees his ERA jump a full point and a half on the road to 4.33 (1.423 WHIP). The team has lost four of the last five times he's started a series opener. The Cubs, meanwhile, are 40-17 their L57 series openers. 7* Chi Cubs

10* Under Nationals/Giants (4:05 ET): This battle of division leaders saw the Nats take the first two games before losing Sunday, 5-3. All three games have stayed Under and I anticipate this one doing the same. Going back, both teams have now gone Under in four straight games. Prior to winning Saturday, San Francisco had been in a terrible way ever since the All-Star Break, dropping 11 of its first 13 games. Lack of offense has been the big issue as there's been only three times they've topped the five-run plateau. They scored exactly five yday, but that was more runs than they'd scored in the previous three games combined. Overall, they've scored two runs or fewer eight times since the Break. Take the Under.

Washington has hardly been hitting the cover off the baseball in its own right. They've been held to four runs or less in seven of the last nine games. Also keep in mind they did not have to face Madison Bumgarner in this series. Today they face Matt Cain. While he's the biggest money loser on the Giants staff, Cain has only started two games since June and one of them was against the top offense in baseball, Boston, on the road. We know that Cain may not have to deal w/ Daniel Murphy on Sunday as the Nats' top hitter sat out Saturday and is still dealing with some tightness in his left leg. That could be a boon for Cain here as he goes for his 100th win in a Giants uniform.

San Francisco is also playing short-handed this weekend w/ Denard Span and Brandon Crawford both out.  Like Cain for the Giants, Gio Gonzalez is last for the Nationals in net units, but he's actually pitched really well of late w/ a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed 3 ER or less his last four times out. He just held Cleveland to only three runs - one unearned - his last time out. That was a misleading final (Nats lost 7-6) as the bullpen blew the game in spectacular fashion. In nine career starts vs. the Giants, Gonzalez has a 3.33 ERA. The Under has cashed in four of the last five starts against them. 10* Under Nationals/Giants

8* Houston (1:10 ET): These are two teams trying to fight there way into Wild Card position. Thanks to taking the first two games of this series, Detroit now has a one-half game lead on the Astros, though they still are a game behind the Red Sox for the second WC spot in the American League. Overall, the Tigers have won five in a row after taking last night's game in walk-off fashion, 3-2, on an infield single. Interestingly, both teams scored twice in the ninth. Tough loss for Houston, but I'll make the case that they're still the better team here as they've outscored opponents by 49 runs (4th best in AL) over the course of the season while Detroit is at +7 (tied for 8th). Dallas Keuchel is toeing the rubber Sunday for the Astros and I think that gives them a pretty distinct advantage as they look to avoid the sweep.

A big key for the Astros this season is they are #2 in run suppression in the American League, trailing only Cleveland. If Keuchel, last year's Cy Young winner, was pitching up to his 2015 standard, then just imagine how good they'd be in that department. The team actually sports a losing record w/ Keuchel on the bump this year (9-12), though he has shown some clear signs that things are set to turn as he's delivered five consecutive quality starts, allowing 2 ER or less every time out. He has a 2.14 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in the last three, but was a hard luck loser his last time out (2-1 to the Yankees) despite going 7 2/3 innings w/o a walk. It should be pointed out that since May 1st, Houston has the best record in the American League (48-29) and ranks 1st in both defensive runs saved and bullpen ERA.

Detroit goes w/ Mike Pelfrey here. Having benefited from leading the league in double plays turned a year ago, he's again near the top in that statistic in 2016 and may even top his 2015 total. But, overall it has not been a good season for him. In 20 starts, Pelfrey has a 5.52 ERA and 1.802 WHIP and his numbers are actually worse here at Comerica Park. Somehow, the team has been able to win two of his last three turns despite him posting a woeful 8.25 ERA and 2.083 WHIP. This shapes up to be a complete pitching mismatch on Sunday and I happen to think that the Astros are the better team overall anyway. 8* Houston

8* Toronto (1:05 ET): Although I actually took the Over on Friday (and that play was a winner!), I stated in my analysis that I anticipated this being a big weekend for the Blue Jays. I came back and took them on the money line yday and sure enough they romped their way to victory over Baltimore, 9-1. The end result is that they now find themselves in first place in the AL East, one-half game up on the Orioles and two up on the Red Sox. I believe that after today they'll widen that lead, at least over the O's, and finish off the sweep here at Rogers Centre. Today is the marquee pitching matchup of the series w/ Chris Tillman facing off against Aaron Sanchez. Baltimore's definitely a different team w/ Tillman on the bump, but they are also just 21-29 on the road.

When Tillman isn't on the mound, the Orioles are just a .500 team. When he pitches, they've gone 18-4. No pitcher in MLB has earned more net units for his team at the betting window than has Tillman (+14.4). He'd been rolling along quite nicely in July; that was until he ran into Colorado his last time out. There, and this came at Camden Yards not Coors Field, he gave up six runs in just five innings of work. Tillman has not fared well against Toronto throughout his career, going 5-10 in 22 starts w/ a 5.71 ERA. In two starts against them this year, he's allowed six runs in 11 innings. Both starts came at home. Back to the team's road woes, they are just 2-10 this season when priced in the +125 to +150 range on the money line. Overall, the club is trending in the wrong direction w/ five consecutive losses.

Toronto has the perfect counter for Tillman and that's Sanchez, who has not lost a decision since April 22nd! That's a span of 16 starts and he's gone 10-0 (12-4 TSR) w/ 2.58 ERA. It should be pointed out that Sanchez has both a better ERA and WHIP than Tillman over the course of the season. He in fact leads the entire American League in ERA (2.72) and that's the lowest earned run average posted by any starter, 23 years or younger, since Felix Hernandez. Lately, he's been on fire w/ a 1.71 ERA his L7 starts, allowing 2 ER or less every time. The Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball right now (16-6 L22), averaging 6.0 rpg during those 22 games.  8* Toronto

10* Over Reds/Padres (8:40 ET): There's really no disputing that the Reds are terrible. They are 20 games below. 500 and have the worst run differential in all of MLB at -137. Still, they've shown some unexpected signs of life since the All-Star Break by going 6-2 the last eight games. They have already assured themselves of no worse than a .500 finish in July. Last night, they dominated the Padres here in San Diego to the tune of 6-0. What's interesting about that final score is that it marked the third straight time these teams have played where the losing side was shutout. I'll call for a higher scoring game all around tonight as the Reds are swinging the bats well and the Padres should bounce back at the plate as well. Take the Over.

For years, Petco Park had earned the reputation of being "pitcher friendly." But, changes have been made to the venue, most notably the left field wall being brought in last year. Since the start of last season, the Over is now 73-52-5 in Padres home games. This season has seen an average of nearly 9.5 rpg scored here, which is well above the average posted total. Consider that tonight's starter, Christian Friedrich, has seen all five of his home starts land Over the total. Part of that is that Friedrich simply isn't very good. In his last three starts overall, he has an ERA of 7.43 and a WHIP of 1.95. Last time out, he lasted only three innings, yet gave up five runs. Over his last seven starts, the numbers bear out the same level of ineptitude; a 7.86 ERA and 1.748 WHIP. He's allowed at least four runs in six of those starts while only once making it through the sixth inning. The Reds are averaging 6.0 runs over their last seven games. 

Cincinnati will have one of its two good starters on the hill tonight, which is why they're favored, but Anthony DeSclafani was rocked his last time out for five runs in five innings at San Francisco. The Reds still managed to win mind you, 7-5, but it was not a good showing for DeSclafani. A big problem for him is that he's allowed a home run in four consecutive starts (two last time out). In case you hadn't heard, San Diego had homered in 25 consecutive games prior to being shutout yday. Look for this to turn into a slugfest as I guarantee this will be the first time in the L4 Reds-Pades games that both teams score. 10* Over Reds/Padres

    

6* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians came through for me yesterday, overcoming an early deficit to win 5-3. As I said in the analysis, the A's shouldn't be much competition for them this weekend as these are teams at opposite ends of the American League spectrum. Led by its outstanding starting pitching, Cleveland has given up the fewest number of runs in the AL (405) and thus has the best overall run differential (+86). Oakland, meanwhile, has been outscored by its opponents by 71 runs over the course of this season, second worst in the A.L. Tonight's starting pitching matchup certainly appears to be heavily slanted in Cleveland's favor. I look for them to win again Saturday.

Josh Tomlin has been one of the more unheralded contributors to the Indians' starting rotation. He comes in w/ a 14-4 TSR and 1.108 WHIP on the season. He's the biggest money-maker on the staff at +10.45 units. But that doesn't even begin to tell the whole story as going back to last season, the team has won 22 of Tomlin's last 27 starts! Where he seems to do his best damage is at home, against a team w/ a losing record. In that situation, his team start record is a perfect 11-0 his last 11. Guess what? Oakland is nine games below .500 and morale could be at an all-time low w/ the news that Rich Hill won't start tomorrow, furthering speculation he's about to be dealt. The key to Tomlin's game is the lowest walk rate per nine innings (0.95) in the American League. He had an 8-0 KW rate his last time out.

Starting Saturday for the A's will be Dillon Overton, who in three starts has a 8.40 ERA and 1.933 WHIP. That's largely owed to one bad start against San Francisco, but still, he's allowed 14 runs and 29 baserunners in 15 innings of work, which is not good. I don't see him getting much run support here either as Oakland is only 22nd in runs scored to begin with. Overall, Cleveland has won 16 of its last 21 games here at Progressive Field while Oakland has lost 30 of 43 road games against teams with winning records. This is just a good old fashioned mismatch. 6* Cleveland

    



8* Pittsburgh (7:10 ET): On the fringes of playoff contention, the Bucs need to put together a big win streak in a hurry. The division (NL Central) is probably out of their grasp, but they remain only three games out of the second Wild Card spot. Still, that means jumping three teams (Cards, Marlins, Mets), which could prove more difficult than it sounds. What should not be more difficult than it sounds is beating Milwaukee, something they failed to do last night. There was no offense for the Bucs Friday (scoreless until the 9th inning), but tonight they'll be facing a much weaker starting pitcher and I like the fact they are 4-0 off their previous four losses. Big bounce back for the road team tonight.

Milwaukee has not been impressive (to say the least) in division games w/ an 18-38 record their L56. They have managed to go 3-4 this year vs. Pittsburgh, so again, these are missed opportunities from the Pirates' perspective. Fortunately, tonight, the Brew Crew are starting Chase Anderson, who has not had a successful 2016 thus far. He's just 5-10 w/ a 5.40 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in 19 starts. The team has somehow managed to win two of his last three starts (including one against Pittsburgh) despite him producing a 1.923 WHIP. The problem w/ Anderson is that he doesn't go deep into games. The last time he made it past the fifth inning was June 8th, which was eight starts ago. He allowed 3 ER in 4 IP vs. the Pirates on 7.20, but was bailed out by the offense. When working on four days' rest (as he is here), Anderson has a TSR of 2-7.

Milwaukee's offense didn't do much last night either and I expect that to be the case again Saturday vs. Jameson Taillon. When he faced Milwaukee on 7.19, he held them to one run and five hits in six innings of work, outdueling Junior Guerra (who is the one that held the Bucs in check last night).  The Pirates have now won Taillon's last four starts, including a 5-4 victory on Sunday vs. Philadelphia where the rookie right-hander finished w/ seven strikeouts and zero walks. While Pittsburgh typically bounces back from a loss, Milwaukee is just 17-27 off a win.  8* Pittsburgh

8* Toronto (1:07 ET): Hitting the Over in last night's series opener was not a problem as the Blue Jays set the tone early w/ three home runs in the first inning and there were 10 total runs scored by the fourth inning (total was 9.0). As I had expected, Toronto ended up taking the game as well, 6-5. In yday's analysis, I made sure to point out what a big series this was for Toronto as they now trail Baltimore by just one-half game in the AL East Standings and can thus take over first place w/ another win today. The homefield advantage is big here (Baltimore just 21-28 on the road) as is the discrepancy in run differentials where Toronto is +77 and Baltimore is just +31. I'll call for a new division leader by day's end.

At the All-Star Break, the Orioles are a team I "earmarked" for second-half regression and it appears as if I made the right call there. Outside of Camden Yards (where they are 37-16), this is simply not the same team and the starting pitching remains a very big concern. Consider that even w/ Chris Tillman's contributions, the rotation's ERA this year is an awful 4.98 (26th), a number typically reserved for last place teams. Take Tillman's starts out of the equation and the team's overall record drops to 40-39. Not to put Tillman on the same mantle as the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, but it's a similar effect there. Starting today for the O's is Yovani Gallardo, who should feel quite fortunate to have an 8-4 TSR given that his ERA and WHIP are 5.37 and 1.63 respectively. On the road, those numbers get even worse. By the way, Baltimore has now lost four in a row.

Toronto will send out JA Happ, who is red hot. He's 7-0 (8-0 TSR) over his last eight starts. In his 10 home starts this year, the team has won nine times w/ Happ at 8-1 himself. Lately, he's been real sharp, turning in a 1.56 ERA and 1.038 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he held Seattle (a good offensive team) to just one hit in 6 IP. There's been only one time in his L7 starts where he's given up more than 3 ER and that came at Coors Field. Personally, I think the Blue Jays are the best team in the East and they're starting to show it w/ a 14-5 run in division games. After today, they'll be in first place. 8* Toronto

    

8* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): We've got bad vs. bad here as the two dregs of the National League East square off. I've been making the case all year that the Phillies aren't even as good as their 47-57 record as a -106 run differential is third worst in all of baseball. Still, it speaks volumes as to just how wretched the Braves are that Philly would be favored here at Turner Field. The Phils did justify the oddsmakers last night, winning 7-5. This will likely be the highest Philly closes on the money line for any road game this season (as the favorite) and for good reason as they're now 7-3 head to head vs. Atlanta, who is an awful 14-37 at Turner Field.

Though I don't think the Phillies are very good overall, I do concede that they have some promising young arms in the starting rotation. One such arm belongs to Vince Velasquez, who they ripped Houston off for in the Ken Giles trade. Velasquez is 8-2 overall in his 17 starts (10-7 TSR), putting him at +4.72 units for the season. While the team has lost each of his last two starts, never have they dropped three Velasquez starts in a row. Before allowing four runs to Pittsburgh his last time out, Velasquez had allowed 2 ER or fewer in six consecutive starts. He's done his best work here at home w/ a 1.50 ERA and 0.953 WHIP. By the way, tonight he'll be facing the worst offense in all of MLB in terms of runs scored.

Overall, last night marked the fifth straight time that Atlanta has lost to Philadelphia. That streak doesn't even include them losing to Velasquez back on May 12th, 7-4. Tonight they'll counter w/ rookie Tyrell Jenkins, who was not particularly effective his last time out. I went against him as he was pitching in Colorado (best offense he'd faced as a starter) and he wound up giving up seven runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Due to a trade, this Braves roster is pretty depleted right now as they had to go w/ only a 23-man roster lineup that included just nine relievers. A bad team playing with even less firepower than usual is a recipe for disaster and I just don't see how the Braves can pull this one out. 8* Philadelphia

10* Miami (7:10 ET): From the Marlins perspective, this series got off to an auspicious start last night as they lost here at home w/ Jose Fernandez on the mound (he was previously 26-1 starting in Miami). But, that result is something I believe they can definitely recover from. Right now, these teams are tied for the second Wild Card spot in the National League, so this game is quite important. The Cardinals have gotten hot (won 8 of 11) and have the vastly superior run differential, but note that Miami is 8-1 off its last nine losses. While highly profitable on the road this season, St. Louis doesn't have the edge in starting pitching in this one either. Therefore, I call for the home team to square the series away at one game apiece.

Jose Urena has made only two starts thus far for the Marlins and while he hasn't won either (team is 1-1), he's definitely pitched very well. In 11 2/3 innings of work, he's given up just two runs and eight hits w/ a 9-1 KW rate. Yes, he's gotten to face the Mets and Phillies, two of the worst offenses in the National League, but I still like his chances tonight. Urena had been working out of the bullpen in April and May, but has been more effective in the role of starter. As for St. Louis, they go w/ Mike Leake. He has a good track record pitching in Miami, but overall has a 4.24 ERA this season. The team has won just two of his past seven starts and is 0-4 during that time against opponents w/ a winning record. Last time out, he was hammered for seven runs and 12 hits by Los Angeles.

One of the big stories in this series is the return of Dee Gordon, last year's NL batting champion, to the Marlins lineup. Gordon is coming off an 80-game suspension for PED's and went 0 for 4 in his official return last night. But I wouldn't be surprised if he got on track rather quickly. In 2015, he hit .333 and also led the NL in steals w/ 58. He's a key cog at the top of the order. Meanwhile, St. Louis is hitting a collective .197 their last seven games, which is not an encouraging sign. As a slight road underdog (+125 or less on the ML), the Cards have a losing record not just this year, but over the past three seasons. Good value on the other side here. 10* Miami

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets suffered a tough 2-1 loss last night here at Citi Field and are now 0-4 this season against the Rockies. The reigning Senior Circuit champs currently find themselves on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the NL playoff picture and more losses to an opponent such as this one are "killers" for their chances of moving up in the standings. Though the offense has some real issues, I think tonight's pitching matchup greatly favors New York and the money line really does not reflect just how one-sided it might be. Beating the same opponent, game after game, is tough to do in this sport and for a subpar outfit like Colorado, there's no reason to believe they can keep beating the Mets.

Rockies pitching has been surprisingly sharp over the last week or so. It's the reason why the team has won seven of eight as they haven't allowed more than four runs in any of those games. Take the staff out of Coors Field and it's amazing what can happen. Nowhere is that more apparent than with tonight's starter Tyler Chatwood, who has a 1.30 ERA and 1.014 WHIP on the road this season (5-0 in eight starts). But Chatwood's career track record suggests he will not be able to keep this level of performance up. He's also recently had a problem going deep into games, failing to make it past the fifth in any of his L5 outings. Though he allowed only one hit in 5 IP his last time out, he also walked EIGHT batters! That came after allowing seven runs to a lousy Tampa Bay offense that had no DH his prior start. 

Of course, Colorado's offense also greatly decreases when they take their act out on the road. At Coors Field, their 6.2 rpg average leads all of baseball. But they dip to 24th in runs per game on the road at just 4.1. When it comes to run suppression at home, the Mets are one of the best teams in baseball (4th), allowing just 3.5 rpg. They'll have Stephen Matz toeing the rubber tonight as he looks to follow up on a fantastic outing where he blanked Miami for six innings, allowing only four hits. The Rockies have never faced him. I haven't even mentioned yet how the Mets have lost the last two games w/ closer Jeurys Familia blowing save opportunities for the first time all season. The Mets outhit the Rockies yday and are 6-1 coming off their last seven losses. Colorado is still only 27-67 on the road the L2 years when facing a team that has a winning record. 8* NY Mets

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This weekend series hosting Oakland is one where the first place Indians have to clean up. While not in any kind of terrible danger (have the largest division lead in the A.L), the Tribe have stagnated a bit since the All-Star Break by going just 5-6. Remember that right before the Break, they put together an impressive 14-game win streak. At home, I don't see them having much problem with the A's, who rank as one of the American League's worst ballclubs. In fact, this matchup pits the team w/ the best run differential in the AL (+84) against a team with the second worst run differential (-69). That sounds like a mismatch to me and I don't think the Indians are priced nearly high enough for Friday. Take them in the opener.

Cleveland should be well-rested for this series as they've already had two days off this week (Monday, Thursday). They just played a quick two-game set here at Progressive Field against Washington, splitting the games. While coming away w/ a split was a little fortunate (had big rally to win on Tuesday - I took them!), that was against a much tougher opponent than they'll face here. Also, it probably took a little adjusting for the players, who hadn't played a home game since before the All-Star Break (due to the Republican National Convention). The Tribe plays 18 of their next 23 at home, so I anticipate they'll have a strong August. As for Oakland, they might be 9-4 overall since the Break, but this is a still a team being outscored by a full run per game on the road over the course of the season. Cleveland is 11-4 its L15 series openers.

Looking at the pitching matchup, we have two starters that have been trending in opposite directions. Oakland's Kendall Graveman has a shocking 8-0 TSR his L8 starts, but I get the sense that regression is about to set in as he carries a 5.25 ERA and 1.543 WHIP on the road this season. Plus, he has a 2-6 TSR his L8 road starts vs. teams with a winning record. He's off a rare complete game effort and has topped 100 pitches in three of his past four starts. For Cleveland, Trevor Bauer is 0-3 in July, but had an outstanding June where he allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of six starts. Coming into this month, he was 7-2 w/ a 3.02 ERA this season. It's a case of progression vs. regression to the mean for the respective starting pitchers in this one while the far better team asserts itself. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Orioles/Blue Jays (7:05 ET): I've got the feeling that this might turn into a pretty big weekend for Toronto as they host the team that's in first place in their division. Not only is Baltimore pretty bad on the road (21-27), especially compared to how they perform at home (37-16), but for most of this season the Blue Jays have had the superior run differential to the Orioles (currently +81 vs. +32). So this is Toronto's chance to show that the numbers are correct and they are indeed the better team. That being said, I'm a little "gun-shy" on pulling the trigger on the Jays in this one. What I do know is that this is a matchup of a top 5 (Toronto) and top 8 (Baltimore) offense in terms of runs scored. That has me on the Over in the series opener.

Let's talk about the total, shall we? Baltimore played a makeup game yday - and lost 6-2 in Minnesota. The total was 9.0, making it the 16th straight Orioles game to finish Under the total! That's a streak you just don't see often and I'm willing to call for it to end tonight. Note that even after factoring in this streak, Baltimore has only stayed Under in 54% of its games overall this season. So, clearly, they were an Over team previously. As mentioned previously, they are eighth in all of baseball in runs scored. They also rank seventh in team batting average (.265) and second in slugging (.451). In addition to being fifth in runs scored (501), Toronto is also sixth in OBP (.331). So, both teams can definitely score. By the way, four of the last five matchups between them have gone Over w/ 16 or more total runs being scored in each of those four Overs!

Looking at the pitching matchup, Toronto's Marco Estrada has definitely pitched better than his pedestrian 9-8 team start record would seem to indicate. He has WHIP of 0.936 here at home, but note his last start saw him allow seven hits, the most he's given up in any outing since April. In 11 IP vs. Baltimore so far this year, he's allowed four runs. As for his counterpart, Kevin Gausman, he has struggled big time on the road as in he's winless (0-6) in 10 tries. He has an ERA of 4.94 and a WHIP of 1.463. I'll call for the Orioles unbelievable Under streak to come to an end here as I think both offenses will score what they're capable of tonight. 10* Over Orioles/Blue Jays

10* Under Red Sox/Angels (10:05 ET): Boston is likely to be amped for this series as I'm sure they recall what happened the last time they played the Angels. Though they did end up taking two of the three games in the series, it is the loss that stands out as they were massacred 21-2 at Fenway Park. That and a 13-0 win over Kansas City on Tuesday are almost single-handedly responsible for the Halos being "in the black" when it comes to YTD run differential (now +4), which is something that not even the first place team in their division (Texas) can claim. That all being said, I'm going to stay away from the side in this game. Though they've now dropped four of six, LA has won all six of its home games since the All-Star Break, which should be respected. What I anticipate here is a low-scoring affair. Take the Under.

We know that Boston has the highest scoring offense in baseball and here they'll be facing a pitcher (Jered Weaver) who just allowed six runs in his last start. I went against Weaver and the Angels in that spot (at Houston) and they lost 7-2. Weaver now has a 5.32 ERA and 1.451 WHIP for the season. Again, this doesn't sound too promising when playing the Under. But consider that Weaver had allowed just 2 ER in his previous 13 IP before the Astros start and he's rarely delivered B2B "bad" starts over the course of the year. Consider that the Under is 64-31-1 in Weaver's L103 starts at home. The Under is 7-3-1 his L11 starts vs. the Red Sox. It's also 6-2 in the Angels' last eight series openers. 

Also in need of a rebound is Boston's David Price, who has now allowed 11 hits in B2B outings. Clearly, Price has not lived up to the big-money contract he signed in the off-season. But before his last start (in Minnesota), the Under had cashed in four straight starts and is 9-2 in Price's L11 starts overall. On the road, the Red Sox scoring average dips by more than a full run per game. Therefore, it shouldn't be too surprising to see that the Under has cashed in four straight road games. They were just held to two and three runs in two of the games against Detroit in the last series, where they were surprisingly swept at home. This will be a lower scoring game than expected. 10* Under Red Sox/Angels

8* Texas (8:05 ET): Both division winners from a year ago, Kansas City and Texas are both experiencing some regression here in the second half of the season. I can't say I'm surprised in either instance as both clubs had been outperforming (in terms of wins and losses) their YTD run differential heading into the All-Star Break. Texas, despite still being 14 games over .500 and in first place in the AL West, actually now has a scoring differential of 0 for the year. Not only does that place them eighth in the American League, it's just fourth best in the division and actually lower than the last place Angels! Kansas City though is in worse shape. They've dipped to two games below .500 and have actually been outscored by 50 runs this year, which suggests the record should be even worse. The reigning World Series Champs have been an awful road team all season (17-32). That and Cole Hamels going for the Rangers are the difference makers in this one.

Kansas City's road record is the same as Minnesota's, who has the worst overall record in the league. That's not a good sign. Neither is the team's current trajectory, which has them at 7-15 in July and 4-8 since the Break. Even more troubling is the fact they only managed to go 3-6 on a nine-game homestand. Their play at Kauffman Stadium had been what was keeping them in contention. Now they hit the road where they are just 6-18 L24 games. Two days ago, this team lost 13-0 at home to the Angels. They bounced back yday w/ a 7-5 win, but are 0-7 their last seven games following a win.

Hamels clearly can be a difference maker in this series opener. Right now, he is carrying this Rangers rotation w/ a 15-5 TSR and 2.87 ERA. The team has won his last three turns, including one as a +120 dog at Wrigley Field on 7.17. There, Hamels allowed only one (unearned) run and four hits in eight innings of work. He followed that up by again allowing just one unearned run in his last start, which came against ... Kansas City. The Rangers won that game (7-4) and the series (took two of three). Hamels is now second in the AL in wins and ERA, not to mention eighth in strikeouts. For the second time in a week he'll be facing Yordano Ventura. Considering Hamels beat Ventura in Kansas City, a win here at home should be expected. Ventura has a 5.26 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in away starts this season. He issued four walks in last week's outing vs. the Rangers. Overall, the team has now lost each of the last five times he's started. The Rangers have won seven of the last eight times Hamels has started a series opener. 8* Texas

    

10* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): The Brew Crew were humiliated last night, losing 8-1 here at home to the D'backs. While many bettors typically "run from" a team following such a result, I've found it's typically a good time to "buy low." Take, for example, the case of the Kansas City Royals the L2 days. Tuesday, they were beaten down (at home) 13-0 by the Angels. They bounced back and won yday, 7-5. I expect Milwaukee to follow that same path here as starter Zach Davies has pitched a lot better than his 9-8 TSR shows. The D'backs, very quietly, have more losses (59) than every team in the National League besides Atlanta and Cincinnati. After a somewhat remarkable start to the season on the road (they've been terrible at home), they've cooled off considerably (2-9 L11) and are also just 1-5 off their last six victories.

Like I said earlier, Davies has pitched well for the Brewers this season. Especially at home, where the team has won seven of the last eight times he's started. In his last three starts overall, Davies has posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He comes off a strong effort against the Cubs where he allowed just one run and three hits in 6 1/3 IP. He and the team cashed as +130 ML underdogs in that one. That came after tossing seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball against the Reds on July 17th. Save for one bad showing against the Dodgers on 6.30, Davies has allowed 3 ER or less in every start dating back to his final one of May! A 2.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his L7 starts confirms that he's been very effective during that time. Going back even further, to the start of May, opponents are batting just .217 off him.

I'm not going to sit here and make the case that Milwaukee is a great team. But the fact is that Arizona is worse. The D'backs have dropped 19 of 26 overall. Last night's loss actually snapped a five-game home win streak against teams w/ losing records for the Brew Crew. I clearly give Milwaukee the pitching edge tonight as not only is Arizona 4-17 its L21 games vs. a right-handed starter, but they are also trotting out Robbie Ray. They've not only lost five of Ray's last six starts overall, but going back to last year, 13 out of his last 16 on the road (2-8 this year). He allowed six runs (against Cincinnati!) in just 5 IP his last time out. For the season, his WHIP is north of 1.50. The Brewers are 8-2 L10 home games vs. southpaw starters. 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Rockies/Orioles (7:05 ET): Given the kind of numbers these two offenses tend to produce, the expectation here would be for a bit of a slugfest and that's reflected w/ a pretty high total here. But, in case you haven't been paying attention, Baltimore currently finds itself in the midst of a historic Under streak at 14 straight! The opener of this series (3-2 Orioles win) produced only five runs and while yesterday that number jumped to nine (Colorado won 6-3), I anticipate that scoring will again be sparse tonight. It's not just the Under streak for the O's. You also have the fact that the Rockies offense drops off dramatically outside of Coors Field while the O's offense has (not coincidentally) been virtually non-existent since the All-Star Break. Take the Under.

The fact that Colorado goes from 6.1 rpg at home down to 4.1 rpg on the road should not surprise anyone given "the park effect" of Coors Field. But what most people also don't realize is that the pitching improves rather dramatically on the road as well. In terms of ERA, the Rockies staff ranks a surprising sixth in all of baseball in road games. That's just ahead of both the Cubs and Giants. So, the result is the Under is 31-19 in all Rockies' road games. Tonight's starter Jon Gray has been really sharp of late w/ a 1.33 ERA and 0.984 WHIP his L3 starts. Of course, it helps that he's only faced Atlanta and Philadelphia during that time. But, again, since the Break Baltimore has not scored more than five runs in any game. They've scored just 35 runs total in 11 games.

Looking at the Orioles starter, Dylan Bundy looked great his last time out, holding the Indians to just one run and five hits in five innings. Both of his starts so far have stayed Under the total. He hasn't necessarily given the team a lot of innings, but that's okay considering how well skipper Buck Showalter does with the bullpen. Overall, Baltimore's last seven games have averaged just 6.5 rpg with them batting only .227 and their opponents at .216. Colorado's road games see an average of just 8.0 rpg scored, which is more than four fewer per game than at home. By the way, the Under is 4-0 in Gray's last four starts and 5-1 the Rockies' last six games overall. 10* Under Rockies/Orioles

7* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): The Dodgers held on last night for a 3-2 win, handing the Rays their fourth consecutive loss in the process. The reality of the matter is that this should be a relatively easy two-game set for Dodger Blue. Tampa Bay just flat out isn't very good. They've lost a stunning 42 out of their last 60 games and are just 3-15 their L18 on the road. Not surprisingly then, they find themselves in last place in the American League East w/ a -59 run differential and 38-61 record, perilously close to having the worst record in the entire league. This team doesn't score much either, ranking just 26th in runs scored overall and they are of course w/out the DH here at Dodger Stadium, a noted pitcher-friendly park, where visiting teams average just 3.1 rpg to begin with (.219 batting average). I look for a Dodgers sweep.

On the subject of pitching, obviously the big story right now in Los Angeles is the continued absence of Clayton Kershaw, who was having himself yet another Cy Young-caliber season. But when he's not on the mound, the Dodgers are just a game over .500 at 43-42. They badly need someone else in the rotation to step up and fortunately for them, it appears as if Brandon McCarthy has answered the call. In four starts thus far, McCarthy has been lights out w/ a 1.61 ERA, 0.717 WHIP and 52-19 KW rate. Last time out, in St. Louis, he held the top offense in the entire National League to just one hit in 6 1/3 IP (still did give up two runs). Just to reiterate Tampa Bay's offense futility here; they've scored just seven runs total during their four-game losing streak.

The homefield edge is pretty big here as well, not only considering that the Dodgers are now 22-6 L28 games at Dodger Stadium, but that they are also the #1 team in all of baseball when it comes to run suppression in their own ballpark.  As for the offense, I like their chances against Matt Moore, who is yet another Rays starter that has regressed in 2016. Overall, Moore has been a big money-burner of late (5-12 TSR L17 starts), but particularly so on the road where the team has won just one of his eight starts. Moore's ERA/WHIP on the road is 5.62/1.541.  He also has an 0-4 TSR his L4 Interleague starts. That includes him giving up seven runs in just 4 1/3 innings to Los Angeles earlier this year (at home). 7* LA Dodgers

8* Miami (12:10 ET): Over the last two days, these teams have exchanged shutout victories. Yesterday, it was the Marlins coming out on top 5-0 as Tom Koehler and the bullpen combined to allow only four hits. Miami's own offense not only obviously didn't do anything Monday, but they had just one run on the board entering the home half of the eighth last night. Giancarlo Stanton's RBI single in the sixth actually snapped a 24-inning scoreless streak. But after they piled on late yday, don't be surprised to see a big day at the plate here. Day games have seen this offense hit a collective .277 this season. For a team currently holding one of the two Wild Card spots, this is a series the Marlins simply cannot afford to lose.

I have made this statement numerous times throughout the season, but it bears repeating. Philadelphia, while it doesn't have a good record, should feel fortunate to even be 10 games below .500. Their YTD run differential of -98 is third worst in all of baseball. Only Atlanta and Cincinnati are worse. Based on that run differential, one would "expect" the Phillies to actually be 24 games below .500. That's tied with the Rangers for the biggest discrepancy between actual and expected win total, whether it be positive or negative. A 20-12 record in one-run games has kept them somewhat afloat, but even there we've started to see some regression. Three times in the last nine games the Phils have dropped a one-run game; two of those came at home to Miami last week.

Overall, the Marlins have only managed to split 12 games this season vs. the Phillies. Again, they need to be better if they hope to make the postseason. Consider that Philadelphia is just 9-26 its L35 games vs. teams with winning records, including 4-13 on the road. Wednesday starter Zach Eflin is coming off a complete game shutout vs. Pittsburgh, which lowered his season ERA to 3.40, but his ground ball vs. fly ball percentage is not what you want to see and I question how he'll perform after throwing 100+ pitches in B2B starts. Miami has won five of Adam Conley's previous seven outings and he has a 2.63 ERA and 1.024 WHIP during that time. Six times during that stretch, he's given up 2 ER or fewer. 8* Miami

8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): At first glance, this seems to be a bit of an obscene price on the lowly Twins, but as a reminder they are the home team in this battle of the worst teams from both the American and National Leagues. Well, Cincinnati actually has a slightly worse run differential than Atlanta (-142 to -138), but the Braves' record is worse. Their run differential is also significantly worse than Minnesota's (-81). So you can start to see some justification for the Twins being in this price range for just the SECOND time in the past three seasons. Throw in the fact that they are on pace for a winning July (12-8) and I'm all over them here.

Despite facing playoff contenders Cleveland, Detroit and Boston since the All-Star Break (Cleveland & Boston have the two best run differentials in the AL), the Twins more than "held their own" in going 5-5 overall. Tonight they send Ervin Santana to the hill and while his TSR remains pretty bad, he's shown definite signs of improvement of late by posting a 1.69 ERA and 0.797 WHIP his L3 starts. During that time, we've seen him toss a complete game shutout (two-hitter) against Oakland here at home and then last time out he held Detroit to just one run over seven innings. The discrepancy between his WHIP (1.141) and ERA (4.22) signals to me that he is line for some better results moving forward.

Meanwhile, even the thin air at Coors Field could not get this woeful Atlanta offense on track as they managed only 12 runs in that four-game series while being swept. The team has lost 8 of 10 since the Break and only twice have they topped three runs in a game during this time. They are 30th (last) in runs scored this year as well as 30th in slugging and team batting average. In OBP, they rank 29th. That's trouble with Lucas Harrell starting tonight as the right-hander has allowed 11 runs (in just 9 2/3 IP) his L2 starts. The Twins offense has been "sneaky good" over the last two months, especially in terms of hitting home runs. Overall, they scored 18 runs the L2 games vs. Boston. The AL traditionally dominates IL play, so I expect that to translate here in the battle of the worst teams from each league w/ the AL team being at home. 8* Minnesota

10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians are glad to be back home after being swept over the weekend in Baltimore. Despite that disappointing result, I don't view the AL Central leaders as being in any kind of trouble as they still sport the best run differential in their league (+86) and have a 5.5 game lead in the division. But they'll clearly need to "step their game up" the next two days as they welcome Washington to town. The Nats are one of just three teams in baseball that has a better run differential than the Indians and both of these teams are on the short list for best starting rotations in the game. Washington may have the better 'pen, but Cleveland is excellent at home (26-16) and has Danny Salazar starting. Go w/ them.

Salazar is a real key to this play. He's worked his way into Cy Young contention by going 11-3 w/ the third lowest ERA in the American League (2.75). He hasn't taken a loss since May 22nd, going 7-0 since that time (nine starts). Overall, Cleveland has the best starting rotation in the American League as it is #1 in ERA, so that's what Washington is up against here. There have been just two starts all season where Salazar has allowed more than three earned runs. That puts a lot of pressure on Nats' starter Gio Gonzalez, who actually is off one of his better outings in recent memory. But the team is still only only 3-8 his L11 starts overall and he has a 4.85 ERA on the road (3-6 TSR) and that's while typically facing the pitcher's spot in the lineup.

Another big key for these teams moving forward is the respective schedules. All nine of Cleveland's games since the All-Star Break have come out on the road while all nine of Washington's took place at home. So, Cleveland's 4-5 record actually looks a bit better than Washington's, especially seeing as the Nats just dropped two of three to the lowly Padres, including allowing a season-high 10 runs Sunday. Thanks to the Republican National Convention and All-Star Break, the Indians actually haven't played a home game in over two weeks. 20 of their next 25 games are here at Progressive Field, so there's an opportunity for a big August. They've won seven straight Interleague games as well. Washington, who is embarking on a 10-game road trip, is just 7-14 the L3 seasons when priced between +125 and +150 on the money line in road games.  10* Cleveland

8* Chi Cubs (7:10 ET): The Cubbies' perceived invincibility has taken a bit of a hit this month (just 8-12 in July), but even after taking a disappointing loss yday to the White Sox, there is no doubt in my mind that they remain the best team in baseball. Their +149 run differential for the year remains way ahead of the rest of the pack and yday saw them acquire closer extraordinaire Aroldis Chapman, thereby solidifying the team's lone "weakness." I see the Northside getting a little revenge here in the "Battle for Chicago" Tuesday before the series heads to Wrigley for the next two games. The White Sox remain a team littered with issues and the fact they don't have Chris Sale going in this series really hurts them.

Over their last three starts respectively, both of tonight's starters have pitched very well. The Cubs' Kyle Hendricks has allowed all of one run (it was unearned) during that time and has a 1.019 WHIP. The White Sox' James Shields has a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP over the same time, but there's been a big difference in terms of results for the two pitchers. Hendricks has a 3-0 TSR while Shields is 0-3. This is a reflection on the White Sox poor hitting. The club ranks 24th in runs scored and while they scored five times in Monday's walkoff win, they've scored more only one time since the All-Star Break. Remember that this offense was infamously shutout three straight times earlier this month. I really like Hendricks' chances here. Note that among the Cubs five "regular" starters, he has lowest overall WHIP. The team has also won his L6 starts overall!

As for Shields, whether it was with the Padres or now with the White Sox, he's been one of the biggest money-burning starters in all of baseball w/ a 5-15 TSR resulting in a loss of 10.5 units. He continues to be plagued by the longball as he's given up six home runs in his last five starts. His strikeout numbers are also below par. The Cubs have typically been a very good bounce back team all season, going 23-14 off a loss, and bounce back is what I expect them to do this evening in this nationally televised matchup. 8* Chi Cubs

    

10* Under Reds/Giants (10:10 ET): I'd like to say the Giants' rough start to the second half is a surprise, but the fact of the matter is that there were some clear "warning signs" (which I have pointed out previously) at the All-Star Break. For starters, this team's run differential never really matched its lofty record. For the sake of comparison, Washington (who is 58-41) has outscored its opponents this season by a total of 109 runs. San Francisco is 58-40, but only +56, which is nowhere even close to the NL's other division leader, Chicago, who is at +150. The biggest problem for San Fran has been an inability to score as they've been held to three runs or fewer in six of eight games since the Break, including all three in the last series. I have this series opener vs. Cincinnati being lower scoring than expected. Take the Under.

Now the Reds happen to have given up the most runs in all of baseball. But they have two good starters and one of them happens to be going tonight (the other, Dan Straily, goes tomorrow). Anthony DeSclafani has actually yet to taste defeat in 2016 (5-0 in eight starts) thanks to a 2.50 ERA and 1.212 WHIP. All but one start this year has been quality and he's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of the eight! As a result, only one has gone Over and that came all the way back on June 15th. Something else I mentioned in a previous writeup on the Reds is that their bullpen has actually improved quite a bit here in July. Before yday's 9-8 loss, starters and relievers had combined to hold Arizona to just six runs in the first three games of that series (all wins). DeSclafani has previously held the Cubs, Nats and Rangers all in check this season. I'm sure he can do the same to the Giants, who hit just .125 w/ RISP on their recently completed eight-game road trip.

San Fran is clearly in dire need of a strong pitching performance and I believe they'll get one here from Jake Peavy, who has never lost a home start in his career vs. Cincinnati. That's seven outings total and his ERA is 1.90. He's allowed just 37 hits in 52 IP. Peavy has also excelled this season when facing an opponent for a second time.  There have been six times so far when he's started in that situation and he has a 2.95 ERA, having allowed just 13 runs in 39 2/3 IP. This will be his second time facing the Reds in 2016. The Under is 3-0 in Peavy's last three starts and 8-2 the Giants' L10 games overall.  10* Under Reds/Giants

8* Houston (8:10 ET): Though I'm taking both teams tonight, I would not be surprised to see the Astros eventually pass the Rangers for the AL West lead. When it comes to run suppression, they are second best in the American League, having allowed only one more than Cleveland. On the subject of run suppression, tonight Dallas Keuchel will be on the mound. Last year, Keuchel was virtually unbeatable here at Minute Maid Park, turning in a 16-0 WL record in 19 starts (17-2 TSR), but 2016 has been a bit of a different story. Still, there have been signs of him turning things around (2.33 ERA, 1.035 WHIP L3 starts overall) plus the team has now won four straight (allowed only 6 runs!) after sweeping the Angels over the weekend. The Yankees season is on the verge of ending once they deal away their bullpen assets. I like Keuchel and Houston in tonight's series opener.

Keuchel has delivered four straight quality starts, allowing 2 ER or less while going at least six innings every time out. A 4-3 loss to Oakland his last time out was the first time the team had lost w/ him on the mound in six starts. Note that was a no decision for Keuchel as the loss was on the bullpen, which allowed all four runs. Given his past history against the Yankees, including LY's Wild Card Game, I expect a strong effort here out of Keuchel.  Earlier this year, he held the Yanks to two runs and three hits in seven innings, improving to 3-1 lifetime against them (1.45 ERA). He starts on five days' rest here and has a 20-8 team start record when doing so.

Going for the Yankees tonight will be Michael Pineda. While he's coming off a super showing (six shutout innings vs. Baltimore), that was at home and as a -210 favorite on the money line. The odds are certainly not in Pineda's favor here considering the Astros are 21-6 their L27 home games. Also, the Yankees are just 6-13 their L19 road games vs. a team with a winning record. I was surprised to see New York take the series from the Giants over the weekend, but again, it's only a matter of time until this bullpen gets broken up. Meanwhile, Houston's roster is getting stronger with the callup of top rated prospect Alex Bregman for today's game. Before the Baltimore start, Pineda had allowed 5 ER in B2B starts. 8* Houston

8* Texas (8:05 ET): July has been very unkind to the Rangers (just 6-13), but quite frankly all of 2016 has been unkind to the A's, who are languishing well below .500 and have the second worst run differential (-73) in the entire American League. Oakland did just win three straight games, all by one run, over Tampa Bay. But the fact Texas just won B2B games in Kansas City is obviously far more impressive. The Rangers know a thing or two about winning one-run games (20-7 record), which is why their record is 15 games above .500 despite only a +4 run differential. I'd been primarily fading them following the All-Star Break, but I don't think there's any denying they're clearly the better team here. Somewhat shocking is the fact that the A's are 16-6 their L22 games here in Arlington, but this is their first visit here in 2016. I'm going w/ the home team.

Texas has been a strong home team all year w/ a 29-15 record here. Note they've only played here four times in the L28 days. One player on the team that has to be ecstatic to be back in Arlington is pitcher Martin Perez, who is coming off a rather disastrous three-start stretch (all on the road) where his ERA and WHIP ended up being 10.91 and 2.042 respectively. But here at home, his numbers are solid (2.48, 1.307) and his team start record is 6-3 (he's 6-1 personally). The team has won his L5 starts here and 20 of 28 overall against teams with losing records. Perez has faced the A's twice this year (both times in Oakland remember) and both times allowed 4 runs in 7 IP. I expect him to be better tonight as the A's come in averaging just 3.1 rpg their last seven and this is their first time playing on the road since the All-Star Break. This is the Rangers first time being back at home since the Break.

The starter Oakland is bringing to this fight is certainly not someone worth fearing as Daniel Mengden has similar numbers to Perez over his L3 starts (10.38, 2.077), but the difference is that his season-long numbers are pretty bad as well (5.52, 1.545). As a result, the team has come out on the losing end six of the last eight times he's started. This is the first time since 2014 that they've won three consecutive series and they haven't had a win streak of more than three games since the start of June. They were a little lucky to beat the Rays three straight days as they took the lead in the eighth inning or later every time. Time to "sell high" on a bad team. 8* Texas

8* Boston (7:05 ET): I'd place both of these teams within a grouping of three in their respective divisions. In the case of Boston, they're battling both Baltimore and Toronto right now for the AL East crown. They enter the day just 1.5 games back of the Orioles for first place. One could make the argument that the Red Sox are the best their division has to offer given their +86 run differential not only tops everybody else in the East, but it is tied for best in the entire A.L. Meanwhile, Detroit is just battling for second in the AL Central (w/ Kansas City and Chicago), in my opinion. Though still three games above .500  for the year, the Tigers have been outscored and just dropped two games yday to the White Sox. Though they only had to play one more inning than usual Sunday (Saturday's game was suspended after eight innings and thus they only had to make up the ninth), it puts the visitors at a distinct disadvantage.

Boston has scored the most runs in baseball w/ 547 (5.7 per game). St. Louis, over in the National League, is the only other club to have scored at least 500, so clearly the Red Sox have the best offense in baseball. They average 6.0 rpg at Fenway Park and have scored at least eight times in four of the past five games here. It was an 8-7 win yday over Minnesota (hit 3 HR's) and that was w/o both David Ortiz and Mookie Betts in the lineup. Ortiz was simply rested and will be back tonight while Betts' right-knee (left game Friday) is seemingly "improved" and the hope is that he'll be back too. The Sox face Justin Verlander tonight and while he's having a pretty decent year, note the Tigers have lost each of his L5 starts here in Boston. Ortiz has had Verlander's number, going 11 for 29 (.379) against him.

The offense in Boston is never worth worrying about, but what about the pitching? Tonight, the Red Sox will have their "shiny new toy" - Drew Pomeranz - on the hill and despite a bit of a rough first effort last Wednesday, I think things set up great for him in this spot. Detroit comes in batting .229 its L7 games and has lost four straight times when facing a southpaw starter. Furthermore, the Tigers are just 15-36 their L51 games here in Boston. I just don't think the road team has enough offense to compete this evening. No one on the team has more than five career AB's vs. Pomeranz, which is another key. 8* Boston

6* Colorado (4:10 ET): These teams met right after the All-Star Break, in Atlanta, and the Rockies missed out on a chance to sweep, dropping the final game 1-0. Needless to say, that kind of score shouldn't reasonably be expected here today at Coors Field where the Rocks have already beaten the Braves three days in a row and now go for the four-game sweep. Atlanta's offense is so poor that it is unlikely to be aided by even the thin air here. They've scored just 10 runs in the series and rank dead last in all of baseball in runs scored this year. Winning a slugfest is basically the only shot a visiting team has here in Denver and that's simply not the way the Braves are presently constructed. Colorado averages 6.2 rpg at home for the season.

Now Rockies starter Tyler Chatwood has certainly shown signs of regression and one might question whether or not he deserves to be in this lofty price range. Tyler Anderson certainly did yday though and it should be pointed out that Atlanta has now been outscored by 133 runs over the course of the season, second worst in all of baseball (Reds). Chatwood is definitely feeling the effects of Coors Field as his ERA here (6.26) is roughly FIVE points higher than it is on the road (1.30). Yes, the effect this ballpark can have on a pitcher absolutely must be taken into account. But my take is that if a pitcher can be that effective on the road, that should translate wherever he pitches. Chatwood didn't even get to face the Braves in the previous series and had allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his first 15 starts overall this season.

Hopeless Atlanta counters w/ Tyrell Jenkins, who has made just two big-league starts and you'd expect to struggle in his first foray into Coors. Jenkins certainly hasn't pitched poorly in his first two outings, but you'll want to note that he also benefited from facing two of of the easiest possible opponents, Philadelphia and Cincinnati.  The Braves are generally terrible in all situations, but they've really struggled during the daytime, going 49-74 the L3 seasons including 12-19 in 2016. On average, they are being outscored by 1.3 rpg on the road this year. 6* Colorado

10* Cleveland (1:35 ET): While Baltimore has been tremendous this season at Camden Yards (not so much on the road), I would have expected Cleveland to perform better than they have in the first two games of this series. Especially considering the huge edge in starting pitching they seemingly have on paper. While the Indians have given up the fewest number of runs of any American League team, Orioles starters have an ERA north of 5.00, which is almost unfathomable for a team in first place in its own division. But I look for that 35-14 home record to take a hit today as the Tribe sends Corey Kluber to the hill. Honestly, the way that Cleveland's rotation set up for this series wasn't great, but Kluber should take care of business.

It's been the Indians that have struggled to score in this series as they've totaled just three runs in the first two games. Baltimore came into the weekend having scored just 14 runs in seven games since the All-Star Break and through a combination of injuries and a flu bug circulating its way through the clubhouse, I would have expected that it would be the O's struggling to put runs on the board in this series. The O's didn't even have the luxury of having their best pitcher (Chris Tillman) go in this three-game set.  Today though should be a good one for Cleveland at the plate as they face the struggling Vance Worley, who in three starts has a 6.00 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He's made it past the fifth inning in only one of those three starts and issued four walks his last time out.

For Baltimore, this is somewhat of an unprecedented price range as they haven't been this big a dog on the ML at home all season. Kluber is the responsible party for that as he's been really good in four of his last five outings. It was a brutal result his last time out as he didn't allow any runs over seven innings Monday vs. Kansas City, but the bullpen blew the game in spectacular fashion. Still though, he's gone at least seven innings w/ allowing 2 ER or less and posting at least 7 K's four of his last five times out. He won't be facing Matt Wieters today, that's for certain. Kluber is certainly "due" for some better luck than what he's experienced the L2 years as well. The Indians have the best run differential in the American League, remember.  10* Cleveland

    

8* Toronto (1:05 ET): It has been an ugly series thus far for the home team, who has lost both games by scores of 2-1 and 14-5. This series shaped up as a battle of third place teams that are by no means out of playoff contention and for the Mariners, honestly it probably carried more importance as they came in w/ a worse record and facing a larger deficit in the division. But coming off a humiliating loss like yday's, I expect the Blue Jays to be the far more motivated side Sunday. To say the Mariners' offensive explosion on Saturday was unexpected would be putting it mildly. Over the previous seven games, they'd been averaging just 2.6 runs per game and batting a collective .217.

J.A. Happ being on the mound here for the Jays is a pretty big deal. Not only has he not tasted defeat since June 6th vs. Detroit, but he's got an 8-1 team start record here at home. One more win would give him a career-best 13 for the season. Lately, he's been turning in some of his best work w/ a 1.96 ERA and 0.981 his L3 starts. Of course, plenty of run support has helped as well. There have been four times in Happ's previous seven starts (again, all Toronto wins) where the team has scored at least 11 runs. They've never scored fewer than five. I figure that he'll get the requisite amount of support here as his offense faces the struggling Wade Miley, who is 0-5 his L5 starts w/ a 5.60 ERA. In four career starts vs. Toronto, Miley's ERA is 6.98.

For Happ, this game likely carries special meaning as he pitched for Seattle last year before getting dealt to Pittsburgh. That's where his career renaissance began as he's now 19-5 over the course of his L30 starts. For the team, this game is obviously big as they don't want to be swept at home (hasn't happened since mid-May) and there's been only one time, period, that they've dropped three straight games since Memorial Day. Consider that the Blue Jays own the AL's third best run differential (+75) and would have a much better record were it not for a 9-18 mark in one-run games. Considering they also had the worst win percentage in baseball in one-run games last year, I believe this team's fortunes will soon turn, starting today. 8* Toronto

    

10* LA Dodgers (7:15 ET): The "problems" behind the Cardinals' sub-standard record are really not problems per se, but rather mostly a case of bad luck. I've been through this many times before. A MLB-worst win percentage in one-run games, particularly at home, is what's "done them in." But all of a sudden, they are starting to win some of these games. Take last night, where at one point they were being outhit 11 to 1 by the Dodgers, yet came back and won 4-3. That marked their second straight one-run victory and third in the last five games. The team is now 25-28 at home and having baseball's third best run differential (+103) would certainly seem to be an encouraging sign. But all that being said, I'm going to fade them in this spot tonight.

Last night's game went 16 innings and as mentioned above, it certainly seemed to be a game the Dodgers "should have" won. But they left 13 runners on base due to going 1 for 13 at the plate w/ RISP. They outhit the Cards, 14 to 8. They took the lead in the top of the ninth and were out away from victory when closer Kenley Jansen uncharacteristically blew the game (just fifth blown save of the season) by serving up a home run to Jedd Gyorko. As tough a pill as that may be to swallow, I still see the Dodgers bouncing back here. They have Kenta Maeda going and he is 5-2 on the road this season w/ a 3.31 ERA. I see him bouncing back here from a bit of a rough outing his last time out as he'd previously allowed 2 ER or less in seven of nine starts. That includes a 13-strikeout effort vs. San Diego, two starts ago.

Now, on paper, going up against Mike Leake looks like a daunting proposition. The Cardinals starter has 21 strikeouts and no walks his last two starts, both wins where he allowed just one run on six hits. But prior to that, he had been struggling. Remember, the Dodgers did something Thursday that no other team had been able to do all year and that's beat Stephen Strasburg. There will be a lot of pressure on Leake here as the Cards played a doubleheader on Thursday and then the bullpen was obviously taxed last night. I see Leake regressing and the Dodgers coming out on top. 10* LA Dodgers

    

6* Houston (7:10 ET): I was 'spot on' w/ my call yday on Angels-Astros as the latter snapped the former's six-game win streak. For many of the same reasons as yday, I'm backing Houston again tonight. In yday's analysis, I talked about the depth issues currently going on with the Angels rotation. It's a regular starter going tonight, but one that has certainly had his fair share of issues, particularly on the road (since the start of last season). The six-game win streak that directly followed the All-Star Break does not change my view of this team one bit as they are still 10 games below .500. Meanwhile, Houston has been hot for more than two months. In five of their last eight games, they've given up one run or less.

The pitcher in question going for the Angels here is Jered Weaver, a former Cy Young contender whose career has taken a turn for the worse. This year, in 18 starts, he has a 5.02 ERA and 1.412 WHIP. Now, Weaver fans will be quick to point out that "their guy" is coming off B2B quality outings. But those came against the White Sox and Rays, two of lowest scoring teams in the entire American League. As mentioned above, Weaver has not been good on the road dating back to last year. In 2015, it was a 3-10 record w/ a 6.02 ERA, which was the highest for any qualifying starter. This year, it's "down" to 4.35, but his WHIP is actually higher than last season (1.349). In a pair of starts vs. the Astros this season, Weaver is 0-2 w/ a 7.94 ERA. He's allowed 10 ER in just 11 1/3 IP. Even worse, both of those starts came at home.

Houston has absolutely had the Angels number this season. Yesterday marked their NINTH consecutive win against them. This team has really picked up the pace as their record since May 24 is 34-16. Considering they were able to win w/o much offense last night, you have to like their chances tonight. Colin McHugh toes the rubber and he is coming off a fantastic start where he struck out 10 over six scoreless innings of four-hit ball. Back in late June, when the Astros went 6-0 against the Angels over an 10-day span, McHugh started two of the games and allowed just four runs total in 13 IP. I look for he and the team to continue their mastery of the Angels tonight. 6* Houston

9* Oakland (10:05 ET): Well, one selection that did not work out for me was the A's last night. They quickly fell behind 2-0, but actually did come back to take a brief 3-2. It was all downhill from there though as the Rays were responsible for the game's final five runs and won 7-3.  But I believe tonight will be different. The Rays still don't scare me as they were just 2-12 here in July prior to a current three-game win streak. They'd also lost 11 straight road games. Like Tampa Bay, Oakland is a last place team, but at home they should be able to take care of business.

A's rookie Sean Manea certainly faced a steep learning curve in this his rookie season. But after a rough first few outings, he's generally been a lot better. In fact, he hasn't allowed a run in two of his last three starts and has allowed 2 ER or less in four of his last six. One thing is for certain and that's he'll be well-rested tonight as this is his first time pitching since the All-Star Break. The last time he started a game was July 10th and for seven innings he blanked a very hot Houston team (allowed only five hits). That's definitely an encouraging sign. Let's not forget that Tampa Bay has one of the lowest scoring offenses in the entire American League (only six runs ahead of lowest scoring team).

The Rays are going w/ Jake Odorizzi and he's coming off one of his better outings of the season. But his ERA/WHIP over his L3 starts are still 7.16 and 1.592 respectively, which should tell you something right there (hint: the other two starts were very bad). Odorizzi did not fare well when he faced Oakland earlier this year, giving up five runs in just four innings of work. The A's took two of three in that series at Tropicana Field, so theoretically they should be able to manage at least a split here at home this weekend.  9* Oakland

8* Houston (8:05 ET): Something I did not anticipate writing a week ago is that the Los Angeles Angels are currently the hottest team in all of baseball. They've won all six games since the All-Star Break, sweeping the White Sox and Rangers. Against the former, it was all about the pitching as they held Chicago to just one run in three games. Versus the latter, it was the offense that carried the team by scoring 24 runs. But here they are running into an opponent that has been the equivalent of their "kryptonite" in 2016, that being division rival Houston. Since losing 7-2 to the Halos back on May 27th, the Astros have beaten them eight straight times, including six straight wins back at the end of June. I like them to win again tonight and thus cool off the hottest team in baseball.

Though they've won these last six games (I had them on Wednesday), I'm not ready to change my overall view of this Angels ballclub. They remain nine games below .500 and I do not see them working their way back into playoff contention. The pitching we saw vs. the White Sox and hitting we saw vs. Texas are both likely to regress moving forward. Five times this year, they've been held to two runs or fewer by Astros pitching. At the same time, Houston's offense has scored seven or more runs four times. The Astros, 7-0 winners in their last game, have been one of the AL's hottest teams over the last two months, going 33-16 L49 games.

Injuries to the starting rotation will ultimately catch up with the Angels. Matt Shoemaker is now the de facto ace. While he's coming off his 1st career shutout, his TSR for the year is only 6-12 and he sports a 5.01 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in nine road starts. That's not very encouraging. I expect Shoemaker to be outdueled tonight by Lance McCullers, who has a 2.35 ERA in five career starts vs. the Angels. McCullers faced them once earlier this year and allowed just one run in 5 2/3 innings. The Under is a perfect 7-0 in his home starts this season and obviously he's played a major role in that w/ a 2.61 ERA here at Minute Maid Park. I'm not buying this Angels team at all and think this win streak is simply a mirage. 8* Houston

10* San Francisco (7:05 ET): The Giants went into the All-Star Break with the most wins in all of MLB, but they have lost all five of their games in the second half, all out on the road. That includes one w/ Madison Bumgarner on the bump as the big southpaw uncharacteristically allowed four runs against the Padres exactly one week ago. But, for a number of reasons, I'm betting big on the NL West leaders snapping this season-worst losing skid of theirs. Obviously, they have Bumgarner and the rest he has vs. the rest counterpart Masahiro Tanaka has is a very big deal. More on that later. Speaking of rest, the Giants had yesterday off while the Yankees had to play the Orioles and lost 4-1 (I had Baltimore). For the second straight day, I'm going against the guys in pinstripes.

While the Yankees had won four in a row prior to yday, I caution the Bronx faithful about getting too excited. This team almost certainly will be a seller at the trade deadline as just about every contender desperately wants to raid their lone strength, the bullpen. Interleague play has not gone too well for the Yanks this year as they are just 3-7 vs. the National League. That would actually be the worst win percentage of any AL team this year against the Senior Circuit. Yesterday, the offense did little against Baltimore's Chris Tillman, registering only five hits. It was the sixth time in the last seven games that they were held to seven hits or fewer. Five times during that same stretch, the offense has scored three runs or fewer.

A big deal here is that Tanaka is working on regular rest. He's was working on a full week of rest his last time out and I took the Under vs. Boston. Tanaka allowed just one run in a 3-1 victory (easy Under). He's now 6-0 w/ a 1.72 ERA the 12 times he's started on extended rest. But, starting on regular rest (as he is here), his ERA is 5.33 in eight outings. "Regular rest" would be defined as just four days between starts. It is surprising that Tanaka would have an 8-2 TSR here at home considering his ERA is 4.71. Meanwhile, Bumgarner still sports an outstanding 0.762 WHIP his L3 starts and considering he's been north of -200 in three of his past four starts, this looks like a tremendous value. He won't be hitting here, which I believe will make him more effective. The Giants offense, perennially one of the best on the road (4.8 rpg this season), will benefit from the addition of the DH to the lineup. 10* San Francisco

9* Cleveland (7:05 ET): I took Baltimore yday, but if you look at the analysis, you'll note that I explicitly stated I don't have a ton of faith in this team long-term. I also didn't have much regard for their Thursday opponent (Yankees), but I certainly have a ton of respect for the team they welcome into Camden Yards this week, Cleveland. The Indians are the best team in the American League from where I sit as they have the best record (56-38) and run differential (+95). This series is not a good matchup for the Orioles right now as their lineup, which has been ravaged by injury and a nasty flu bug, will have to contend with the best starting rotation in the American League. I look for the Tribe to take tonight's series opener.

Another key edge for the Indians this weekend is they won't be facing Baltimore's best pitcher, Chris Tillman, who started yday. As mentioned above, I went w/ Tillman and the O's against the Yankees as they avoided what would have been an embarrassing four-game sweep in the Bronx. Take Tillman starts out of the equation and Baltimore actually has a losing record this season (one game below .500). This team simply lacks the horses in the starting rotation. Another problem though is that since the All-Star Break, they are simply not hitting. In the seven games, they have scored only 14 runs and are batting a collective .196. A big reason for that is a stomach bug that has ravaged the club house, taking Chris Davis and Manny Machado (returned Thurs) out of the lineup. Even skipper Buck Showalter was affected. Also, Hyun Soo-Kim, Adam Jones, Joey Rickard and Matt Wieters are all players dealing w/ various injuries.

Having a slumping lineup is never a good thing, but especially when getting set to face this awesome Cleveland rotation. Up first in this series will be Trevor Bauer. Though Bauer's numbers from his last two starts are less than ideal, note that he'd allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his first 12. Like most Indians starters, Bauer has good strikeout numbers and this Baltimore lineup tends to swing and miss a lot. I certainly like Bauer's chances here facing off against rookie starter Dylan Bundy, who was rocked in his big-league debut, giving up four runs in just 3 1/3 IP. The Indians just won B2B games in Kansas City, which is no small feat, and have the benefit of having had Thursday off. 9* Cleveland

    

10* Oakland (10:05 ET): Tampa Bay is certainly sad to have bid Coors Field adieu as they scored 21 times the last two games, an output rarely seen from this offensively challenged ballclub. Now it's on to Oakland for a battle of last place clubs in the American League. The A's missed their chance at a sweep of the Astros (who have been red hot), losing 7-0 yday. But having taken four of six overall here at home against two playoff caliber clubs (Houston, Toronto) since the All-Star Break is certainly an encouraging sign. Also encouraging are some of the recent performances from Sonny Gray, who has certainly been one of the most disappointing starting pitchers in all of baseball this season. But it appears he has things pointed in the right direction. This is a good spot to "sell high" on the Rays.

In four of his last five starts, Gray has given up 3 ER or less. At long last, he got a win on Saturday, over Toronto as he allowed just three runs in six innings of work. Toronto clearly has a much tougher lineup than Tampa Bay. Six of Gray's eight starts since coming off the DL have been quality ones. Consider that before totaling the 21 runs the last two days vs. Colorado, the Rays had scored 20 runs total the previous eight games. Gray is certainly "due" for more success while the Rays offense is certainly "due" to regress from the last two games. Remember that Tampa Bay had lost 11 straight road games before winning its last two.

More good news for Oakland is that they are 3-1 this season coming off a shutout loss. Speaking of "more," Tampa Bay's Matt Moore (gets the start here) has an 0-7 TSR on the road this season w/ a 5.93 ERA and 1.658 WHIP. So, I look for the Oakland offense to rebound here.  Moore, like Gray, has shown signs of improvement recently, but all of the good starts have come at home. Gray and Moore did face off once earlier in the season and Oakland won that game 7-6. They ended up taking two of three at Tropicana Field. They'll win this one as well. 10* Oakland

8* Run Line Detroit (8:10 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play where I'm selecting the Tigers +1.5. Given the White Sox general inability to score many runs, I think the run line happens to be an excellent option here. After being shutout in the final game before the All-Star Break (by Atlanta!), the Sox scored a grand total of just one run in a three-game series vs. the Angels where they obviously were swept. They did score 14 runs in the most recently completed series, vs. Seattle, but even that was not enough as they suffered two crushing losses in the final at-bat. Now, Detroit has hardly been "hitting the cover off the baseball" themselves as they scored only four runs in three games against Minnesota. But in a matchup where runs could very well be at a premium, the RL is the way to go, in my opinion.

These division rivals have met six times already this year and the TIgers are 4-2 in those games. Three took place in the Motor City and three took place here at U.S. Cellular Field. One of Detroit's two losses in Chicago came by one run, which obviously is a situation that's just fine given how I'm playing this game. Needless to say, I don't think we'll be seeing the kind of slugfests we saw the last time these teams met on the Southside. I want to note how the White Sox have played a lot of one-run games this year (32), tied for second most in all of baseball. Again, whether they win by one run or lose by one run (like they did twice vs. Seattle), it's fine by me. I also think the team could be a little demoralized after what happened out in Seattle. Don't discount the effect the long-trip back may have on the players either!

James Shields certainly has gotten a lot better for Chicago as time has gone one, but the problem is that his offense failed to score even a single run for him in his last two outings. The last was a brutal 1-0 loss to the Angels. Overall, seven of Shields' 19 games started this season have been decided by one run. Remember also that this is the same pitcher that at one point allowed seven or more runs in four consecutive starts. One of those came against the Tigers. Detroit counters w/ Mike Pelfrey, who has actually allowed just two runs in his L2 starts away from home (12 1/3 IP). He's 1-1 vs. the White Sox in 2016. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

8* Baltimore (1:05 ET): Though I do not have a ton of faith in the Orioles long-term, I do believe they'll avoid the sweep today in the Bronx as they send their most successful starter to the bump. Chris Tillman may not have the greatest ERA or WHIP (though both numbers are certainly satisfactory) over the course of the season, but the bottom line is him having a 17-3 team start record, the result of which is a +15.2 net unit gain, the best in all of baseball. Tillman has also been outstanding lately w/ a 1.29 ERA and 1.048 WHIP his L3 starts as he's gone exactly 7 IP every time out while allowing just 1 ER (on only 12 hits). I look for Tillman to "do what he does" and that's lead Baltimore to the win.

One pitcher that has NOT performed well lately is CC Sabathia. The old hefty lefty was actually a really nice story through mid-June, but his L5 starts have been a disaster. In those five, he's allowed a ghastly total of 27 runs in just 28 1/3 IP. Outside of one start against the slumping White Sox, he's failed to record more than three K's in any other outing. He's allowed 39 hits and 10 walks in those last 28 1/3 innings of work. He has a 7.41 ERA and 1.824 WHIP his L3 starts. Obviously, the Yankees bullpen has been tremendous, but I think the damage will be done by the time they are called into duty Thursday afternoon. Another interesting tidbit is that today is Sabathia's birthday. He has a 7.48 ERA in four career starts on his b-day.

It would of course be nice if Tillman could get the kind of offensive support he was getting in the early part of the season. In the last five games, the Orioles have scored a grand total of six runs. It's been four straight losses and they were shutout yday (just fourth time all season, 1st since May 18th). While injuries and a nasty flu bug going through the locker room have certainly played roles in the recent offensive decline, the bottom line is that Baltimore has still had their fair share of chances to get runners home. But they've gone a woeful 3 for 33 w/ RISP since the All-Star Break, including 1 for 9 yday. The bottom third of the order was 0 for 9 Wednesday and can only improve today. This offense still ranks 2nd in slugging and 5th in team batting average overall (eighth in runs scored).  8* Baltimore

   

10* Under Dodgers/Nationals (12:05 ET): The one real oddity in the incredible season put forth so far by Stephen Strasburg (13-0!) is the incredible regularity w/ which Over bettors have cashed in his starts. The current tally (for Over bettors in Strasburg starts) is 13 out of 17 and that includes 9 of 10 here in the Nation's Capital. But, lately, it appears as if the tide may be turning. Strasburg's last two starts, where he's allowed only two runs and five hits in 15 IP, both stayed Under the total (that followed TWELVE consecutive Overs!). Really, it makes no sense that the Over would be so strongly correlated with Strasburg starts as the pitcher has a 2.51 ERA and 0.985 WHIP overall in his 17 starts (16-1 TSR). Yes, I had the Over in Tuesday's series opener, but I'm switch course for the finale. Take the Under.

Another streak of note came to an end Wednesday, that being the Nationals' six-game losing streak to the Dodgers. It was an 8-1 win for the home team, who poured it on late w/ six of the runs scored in the fifth inning or later. As for the Dodgers, they were held to only four hits in the game, snapping a streak of five straight games w/ at least 10. Considering the way they were shut down by Gio Gonzalez, I expect Strasburg to have a very successful outing as well. In his last three starts, Strasburg has a minuscule 0.83 ERA and 0.646 WHIP. He's allowed only two runs and five hits in 21 2/3 IP. Yes, three starts ago, he was actually pulled even though he hadn't allowed a single hit in 6 2/3.

Something I wrote about in my analysis for Tuesday's game (where I had the Over) is that the Under had cashed in six straight games for Washington at the time. Thanks to a run scored in the bottom of the eighth last night, that game went Over as well. But it was still the seventh time in the last eight games that they held the opponent to two runs or less. I believe Strasburg is more than capable of keeping that trend alive. As far as the Dodgers' pitching goes, they send Julio Urias to the mound. While his early returns have been quite disappointing, I think he'll benefit simply from the fact Washington's offense is "due" to start supporting Strasburg less. A big key with all these Strasburg starts staying Over is the fact most of the totals have been low. This one's a little higher than normal. A pitcher this dominant should take care of the run suppression and hopefully we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth (always a key when betting the Under. 10* Under Dodgers/Nationals

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): It speaks volumes that the first place Rangers find themselves in this price range, even on the road, against an Angels team that has Mike Trout and little else. But I've been poking holes in the Rangers' resume for some time now and will continue to as long as the numbers suggest I should. Note that they've lost both games here in Anaheim in high-scoring fashion (17 runs allowed) and now have only a +5 run differential for the year despite being 15 games over .500! They've regressed big-time here in July (just 4-11) while the Angels have actually come out of the Break red hot, winning all five games. I concur w/ the money line here and will call for the Halos to sweep!

It should be noted that the Angels were slight favorites on the ML for the first two games as well. The reason for the increase tonight isn't just the fact they've taken those first two games, but also because they are sending a red hot pitcher to the mound, that being Hector Santiago. Over his last three starts, Santiago has allowed all of one run and it was unearned. He is currently working on a 22 inning scoreless streak and he looked absolutely dominant against the White Sox his last time out w/ 76 percent of his pitches going for strikes (7-0 KW rate) plus he induced 13 ground ball outs. Meanwhile, the Rangers pitching staff is in shambles right now and tonight's starter Martin Perez has played a role in that by allowing 17 runs in his last two starts (12 earned) in only 9 2/3 IP. On the road this season, Perez is just 1-5 w/ a 5.49 ERA and 1.525 WHIP. 

Remember what I said about Texas' run differential not matching its record? Well, the same could be said for the Angels, only the reverse is true. While they are still 10 games under .500, they have now actually outscored opponents (by 1 run) over the course of the season. So, to summarize, despite being 12.5 games back in the standing, the Angels have a nearly identical price range to the Angels. That says to me that they absolutely belong in this price range, particularly w/ Santiago pitching. Plus, Texas is due to keep "giving some back" after being - by far - the most profitable team to bet on in the first half. 8* LA Angels

8* Cleveland (2:15 ET): For the first all season, the Indians were able to win a game here at Kauffman Stadium yday. They were previously 0-4 here in Kansas City and overall homefield advantage has played a big role in determining the winner of Indians-Royals games this year. Before yday's result, the home team had been 10-1. That's right in line w/ the overall home-road split we've seen from the Royals this season as they are 30-14 at home, but 17-32 on the road. This all might sound like I'm making a case for KC then this afternoon, but I'm not, as the homefield edge isn't as strong as Cleveland sending Carlos Carrasco to the bump. The Royals, remember, are a team I believe is going to slip here in the second half of the season.

Kansas City might be one game above .500, but they have been outscored by 26 runs over the course of the season. That tells me that they're a little fortunate to have such a record. They were definitely a little lucky to win Monday's series opener vs. the Indians as they trailed 3-0 entering the eighth only to explode for a seven-run rally when Cleveland pulled starter Corey Kluber for the game. It was another 7-3 game yday, this one in favor of the Tribe. Again, they kept the Royals off the scoreboard deep into the game and took an early 6-0 lead. A key here is the temperature as it's expected to be quite hot this afternoon in Kansas City, which will result in a number of regulars (on both sides) being rested. The Royals have had depth issues all season because of injuries, so this will have a more adverse affect on them. Catcher Salvador Perez, an All-Star, is expected to sit.

Cleveland is clearly the class of the American League currently as their +88 run differential is by far the best in the league. A big reason for that is their outstanding starting pitching, which I don't think any other A.L. team will be able to match come playoff time. Carrasco has been the best of the lot w/ a 2.49 ERA and 1.067 WHIP. On the road, those numbers get even better (1.94, 0.82). He's allowed only nine earned runs total in his L7 starts. Meanwhile, the Royals haven't won any of Ian Kennedy's last three starts and he sports a 4.02 ERA in division games this year. 8* Cleveland

   

7* Cincinnati (12:35 ET): I readily concede to you that there's very little to like about either of these teams. In fact, a pretty compelling case could be made that these are the two worst clubs in all of baseball. With the series being contested at Great American Ballpark, that should present at least a minor edge to the Reds, who are a respectable 21-27 at home this season. That record has led to only a small profit loss, but that's eons better than what this team has turned out on the road. Cincy did take Monday's series opener, 8-2, but then turned around and was beaten 5-4 (in extra innings) yday. But you'll want to note the price range here as the Reds were a perfect 3-0 this season in the -150 to -200 price range going into yday, not to mention 16-4 on the ML the L3 seasons. I'll call for them to bounce back and take the series Weds afternoon.

One thing we can like about the Reds here is that they are starting Anthony DeSclafani, who leads the team in quality starts w/ six. Five of those have come during the course of his last five starts. A 33-3 KW rate is certainly impressive. Last time out, he was in the aforementioned price range on the money line (not quite as high) and held the Brewers to just three runs in 6 IP. It was the same exact story on July 6th in Wrigley when he beat the Cubs as a +175 ML dog. Overall, in those last five starts, DeSclafani has gone 4-0 w/ a 2.67 ERA, allowing just 10 runs in 33 2/3 IP. Remember that was it not for injury, DeSclafani would have been the Reds' opening day starter. Another key is the team's bullpen has been much improved here in July, posting a 2.20 ERA in its first 49 IP.

Speaking of bullpens, Atlanta's almost blew the game last night as they allowed two runs in the bottom of the ninth before coming back to win in the 11th. But still, I don't think that the Braves will be in that same position entering the final frame here against DeSclafani. Remember that the Braves possess the single worst offense in the game in terms of runs scored (315), team battting average (.237) and slugging (.348). Also starter Lucas Harrell isn't anything to "write home about" after he allowed seven runs in 3 2/3 IP Friday vs. Colorado and that game was NOT at Coors Field. My final note is that the Braves are the only team in all of MLB w/ a worse record than the Reds.  7* Cincinnati

    

10* Chi White Sox (10:10 ET): What an absolutely atrocious loss the White Sox took last night. Yes, I was on them. But, make no mistake about it, this is no "sour grapes." Behind another dominant performance by Chris Sale (who was my main impetus for the play), they were breezing along against the Mariners (game only lasted roughly 2 hrs!) as their ace allowed only one hit through eight brilliant scoreless innings. But then the bullpen blew things in spectacular fashion, giving up four runs in the bottom of the ninth, three of which came in the final at-bat of the game, a HR by pinch hitter Adam Lind. The White Sox still ended up outhitting the Mariners 11-4 for the game. Despite the heartbreaking result there, I'll still come back w/ the Southsiders as I really like this matchup for them.

Chicago obviously won't have Sale going tonight, but they should be able to lean on Jose Quintana in similar fashion. The southpaw has a 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts, even though he's given up a total of nine runs. The long ball has hurt him significantly, but until last night's final AB, Seattle had not homered since the All-Star Break. Overall, Quintana is eight in the American League in ERA and seventh in WHIP. So, you'd certainly expect him to have a TSR better than just 9-9. The team has won each of his L2 outings, including a masterful performance in Houston where he gave up just two hits over seven innings of work. I recognize that the team has now lost five in a row w/ only four runs scored. But only once this season have the White Sox had a losing streak longer than five games.

I'll call for the Sox offense to "bust out" tonight against Wade Miley, who has not been good since he returned from the DL.  He's lost all three starts, turning in a 6.19 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. His last start saw him allow 10 hits in just 5 1/3 IP against the Royals. In three career starts vs. Chicago, Miley's ERA is 6.52.  Going back to before he went on the DL, Miley has been pretty bad overall, posting a 6.87 ERA and 1.773 WHIP his L7 starts overall. Remember Seattle's offense had scored just two runs in 26 innings before last night's stunning 9th inning rally. This is a great spot to buy low on the revenge-minded visitor. 10* Chi White Sox

8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): Yes, I'm backing the Cubs again Tuesday and the rationale will essentially remain the same despite a different (more marquee) pitching matchup. I'll say this again - the Cubs are the best team in baseball & it's not even close. Just look at that run differential (+148)! Last night saw them beat the Mets for the first time in nine tries, which includes LY's NLCS as well as a four-game series earlier this month at Citi Field. I said the revenge angle would be strong here and it was w/ Jon Lester delivering a big-time quality start. Now, it's an even bigger gun that the Northsiders will be sending to the mound, Jake Arrieta, whose recent "struggles" are not a concern to me.

Given the Mets hitting woes that I went through in yday's analysis, Arrieta is probably a pitcher they'd probably not face. Now they have beaten him the last two times they've seen him, in LY's NLCS and earlier this month, but I expect a much different result this go-around. He has a 1.65 ERA at home, for starters. The team is citing the All-Star Break and the rest they got as a real positive. It certainly has been for the pitching, which has allowed 1 or 0 ER in all three wins since the Break. With Arrieta, he's had a full 10 days off between starts. Remember, Lester had been shelled the last time he'd faced the Mets, then dominated them Monday. I think a similar transformation will be in order for Arrieta, who still has a 13-5 TSR mind you.

The Mets are just 28th in runs scored, both on the road and overall. So, they'll be leaning heavily on Noah Syndergaard here. But Syndergaard's experienced his own fair share of trouble lately, namely failing to get past the fifth inning twice in his last three starts, both times against Washington. In between, he did pitch well against the Cubs. But those two bad starts leave his ERA/WHIP at 5.52/1.636 respectively his last three overall. I do not anticipate him getting much support here, which makes things even more difficult. These are two teams set to move in opposite directions here in the second half. This is a rather incredible price on the Cubs at home w/ Arrieta pitching.  8* Chi Cubs

10* Over Dodgers/Nationals (7:05 ET): This is a pretty big series in the Senior Circuit with two playoff hopefuls meeting up in the Nation's Capital. For Washington, it's also a shot at revenge after they were swept at Dodger Stadium last month. To me, the Nats have clearly emerged as the second best team in baseball behind the Cubs. They are #2 in run differential at +114. But I don't necessarily like the way their rotation sets up for this series, starting w/ Reynaldo Lopez (big league debut) tonight. At the same time, I won't be endorsing LA's Scott Kazmir, who has a winning record in spite of a poor ERA. Therefore, we turn to the total and I'm thinking Over here as Dodgers games have been significantly higher scoring on the road.

Here's a little more on Lopez. He recently appeared in the "Future Stars" game during the All-Star Break. While he's flashed plenty of promise in the minor leagues, note that he's only been called up due to the injury to Joe Ross. Lucas Giolito, another minor-league callup, didn't do particularly well in his second spot start in place of Ross. Lopez began the year in Double-A, so this is a big jump up in class. The Dodgers scored 13 runs in the opening game of their previous series and have collected 10 or more hits in four straight games. Again, it should be noted that while the Under is a highly profitable 34-14 in Dodger home games, the Over has actually been a winning proposition when they take their act on the road. Their road games average 9.0 total runs scored.

Of course, that also means the Dodgers allow more rpg on the road than they do at home (about 1.0 per game more). Kazmir has a 5.40 ERA in eight road starts, yet somehow has yet to taste defeat. But after lasting only three innings in his last start, I wonder what the team will be getting tonight. What we do know is that three of the Nats key hitters - Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth and Danny Espinosa all have homered against Kazmir despite having no more than seven career at-bats against him. In three career starts vs. Washington, Kazmir has a 4.14 ERA. I know Washington has gone Under in six straight, but expect them to break out the bats tonight while also giving up enough runs to allow this game to go Over the total. 10* Over Dodgers/Nationals

8* Chi White Sox (10:10 ET): To say runs have been at a premium for the White Sox of late would be the mildest of understatements. They finally scored a run yesterday, but only a run (as in one), which followed three consecutive shutout losses dating back to the final game before the All-Star Break. It's not like the pitching of the Los Angeles Angels is typically to be feared, so the results of that series are pretty ominous for an offense that already ranked 24th in runs scored. But if they have one "ace" in the deck, it literally would be Chris Sale and he'll toe the rubber Monday against a Seattle team that scored all of two runs itself the last two games. Though Sale's numbers have dipped a bit recently, he'll be well rested here and in line for a strong outing.

While Sale is off an embarrassing performance that saw him allow eight runs (in just five innings) to the Atlanta Braves, at least he has a strong career track record that we can base a play on. Like a 7-1 record and 0.959 WHIP in nine road starts this season. His strikeout numbers are down overall this year, but he does have 45 of them over his last six outings, in 40 IP. One would have to go all the way back to August of last season to find the last time Sale faced the Mariners, but it was a success as he beat Felix Hernandez here at Safeco Field, 11-4.

Sale can certainly carry the White Sox to a victory, but I'm not sure there's a comparable starter left in the Mariners rotation that can do the same. This group is in shambles due to injuries, the most notable of which to King Felix, and there's some real journeymen currently doing "the heavy lifting." One such name is Wade LeBlanc, who is slated to be on the bump Monday. LeBlanc didn't last long his last time out, giving up five runs in just 3 1/3 innings to Houston on July 6th. That was a 9-8 loss for the team, who has now dropped seven of 10 as well as 28 of its last 46. Their YTD run differential is still pretty good (+41), especially for a team that's just .500, but in this instance I think the Mariners ship has sailed. In a game that promises to have little in the way of offense, I'm siding with the team that has - by far - the edge in starting pitching. 8* Chi White Sox

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): This Cardinals team just can't seem to get fully on track. Sure, they won for me on Saturday (in shutout fashion), but they lost to Miami both the day before and after. That leaves them at a very disappointing 20-28 at home. For a frame of reference, that's a worse home record than what the lowly Reds have! Only two NL clubs - Atlanta and Arizona - have worse home records than what St. Louis currently sports. But there's a big-time caveat w/ the Redbirds' losing mark at Busch Stadium and that's they've actually outscored opponents here over the course of the season! I think they're actually in a great spot Monday drawing a Padres team in store for a letdown after a surprise sweep of the Giants.

Conventional wisdom said that the Padres had waved the proverbial "white flag" on 2016 when they dealt Drew Pomeranz to Boston during the All-Star Break. But someone forgot to tell that to the existing players as they swept a Giants team that had previously beaten them nine straight times this year. I don't think anybody, myself included, saw that series result coming. But this is not a team known for ripping off extended win streaks. Looking over their entire season, there hasn't bee a single time that San Diego has won four straight games. There has been three instances of them winning three straight, but they've lost those next three games by a combined score of 11-3, getting shut out twice in the process. The sweep of the Giants was the team's first all season! Overall, the offensive numbers have been a bit better than expected this year (mainly thanks to Wil Myers), but overall this is the same sorry Padres team.

Before yday, St. Louis pitching had (mostly) been getting the job done, holding opposing hitters to a .204 average and 3.0 runs over a seven-game stretch. Michael Wacha failed to get the job done yday, but I think Mike Leake will here today. Leake has a much better WHIP than ERA, especially here at home, indicating he's been more "unlucky" than "bad." Meanwhile, Padres starter Christian Friedrich has simply been the latter of late w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP his L3 starts, all losses. He's gone longer than six innings just twice all year. With a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA and has given up the fourth most runs, that's a problem. 8* St. Louis

8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET):  I took the Cubs in the opener of their previous series, which ended up being a 6-0 win over the Rangers. They won the following day too, 3-1, but then dropped Sunday's finale to Cole Hamels by a score of 4-1. But despite that single loss, I will continue to maintain that this is - by far and away - the best team in baseball. They have the run differential (+144) to prove it. The fact that they won a series against the Rangers (+11 run differential) did not surprise me. This series, at least based on previous results, could prove to be a bit more difficult. After sweeping last year's regular season series (7 for 7) against the Mets, they have now lost eight in a row to the reigning Senior Circuit champs, having been swept in LY's NLCS and then again at Citi Field earlier this month. But I've always been a big proponent of the revenge angle. I'm taking the Cubs Monday, at home, in a big ESPN game.

After four consecutive starts out on the road, Jon Lester will certainly be happy to be back at the Friendly Confines. The worst of those four starts came in Queens where he allowed eight runs in 1 1/3 innings. That start and his last one (at Pittsburgh) have seen Cubs opponents combine to score 26 runs. But Lester is having a great year here at Wrigley w/ a 2.32 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in eight starts (6-2 TSR). Note he had allowed just 24 ER total in his first 16 starts this season. He'll surely pitch better here than he did the last time against the Mets, which happened to be a career-worst performance, both in terms of runs allowed and innings lasted.

The Cubs didn't generate a ton of offense against the Rangers, but the good news is they won't need much against the Mets' futile lineup. New York comes into this series ranked 28th in runs scored and 29th in team batting average. Last year, they were quite strong offensively on the road, but that's no longer the case as they are 28th in runs scored there as well. Stephen Matz will go Monday for the Metropolitans. His WHIP is a little higher than you'd typically like to see, especially of late. The team is just 2-5 his last seven starts and Matz's ERA/WHIP is 4.87/1.50 during that time. His rotation mate Jacob deGrom was quite kind to me Sunday, but that was against the sorry Phillies. This is the Cubs and like virtually all other situations, they excel vs. lefty starters w/ a 21-10 record, averaging 5.3 rpg. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Under Red Sox/Yankees (8:05 ET): Due to the rapidly declining Yankees, this rivalry has lost some of its luster in 2016, but that'll never stop ESPN from having this as the Sunday Night telecast. Last night's 5-2 victory made it six straight for the Red Sox and they clearly are a playoff contender thanks to the highest scoring offense in all of MLB. But going back to the 1st half, they've seen four straight Unders cash as they've been "held" to either four or five runs in every game. On the run suppression side of things, they've been outstanding in allowing just six runs total during that stretch. With a strong starting pitching matchup tonight (Price vs. Tanaka), I see it being a clean sweep for the Under in this series.

The Yankees' offense is beyond impotent at this point as only three teams in the American League have scored fewer runs over the course of this season. They are getting next to nothing out of both Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, who were surprise standouts a year ago, but now among the worst hitters in all of baseball. Though they've scored five runs in the two games in this series (pedestrian in its own right), it should be pointed out that the team has only nine hits. Two solo home runs accounted for all the scoring yday and I expect the guys in pinstripes to struggle big time here against David Price, who is coming off three consecutive dominant outings where his KW ratio was an eye-popping 30-3! All three games stayed Under the total.

In his last start before the All-Star Break, Price threw eight scoreless innings of four-hit ball against another bad offense (Tampa Bay). It was his second straight start going eight innings and third in a row w/ 10 K's. Yes, I'm well aware of Price's career-long struggles vs. New York, but these aren't your father's or even older brother's Yankees. Besides, Price actually hasn't performed all that poorly here at Yankee Stadium (8-3, 3.64 ERA).  Meanwhile, the L3 starts of Masahiro Tanaka have all gone Over. But he remains a reliable option, particularly when pitching on more than four days rest (5-0, 1.72 ERA). He's working on a full week of rest here. Last time Tanaka had more than four days off between starts, he threw 7 2/3 scoreless innings. Also, don't forget the one strength of the Yankees is their bullpen.  10* Under Red Sox/Yankees

8* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): The old adage that "there's no place like home" certainly does NOT apply to the D'backs and Chase Field this season as the team has a terrible 16-33 home record. That's after winning yday mind you, 2-1 over the Dodgers. Atlanta (who is essentially a 'quadruple A' team at this point) is the only team w/ a worse home record than Arizona. The Dodgers came here and took Friday's series opener, 13-7, before losing close last night (in 12 innings). Embroiled in a tight battle for the NL Wild Card, Los Angeles simply can't afford to drop another game to the last place team in their division. They outhit Arizona last night (10-8) and were actually just one out away from a 1-0 victory (before giving up game-tying run w/ two outs in the bottom of the ninth). I like the much better team to respond here.

Kenta Maeda started the year strong, then hit a brief rough patch and now is clearly back on track. The Dodgers righty has allowed 2 ER or less in seven of his past nine starts and his last one before the All-Star Break might have been his most masterful as he struck out 13 Padres en route to an easy 3-1 victory. He allowed just two hits in seven innings and didn't walk anybody either. This will be Maeda's third time facing Arizona this year and while he didn't get the win the first time, he also didn't allow a single run in 6 IP. The next time did see Maeda win as he gave up two runs in 5 1/3 IP. His TSR over his L10 outings is 7-3 and he has a 0.94 WHIP on the road for the season.

The main reason why the Dodgers lost last night was that they went 1 for 15 w/ RISP. They have 28 hits in the first two games of the series, including a season-high for a game (18) in Friday's opener. I like the offense's chances here today against Robbie Ray, who over his last three starts has a 5.82 ERA and 1.647 WHIP. His TSR, not surprisingly, is 0-3.  Over the course of the season, his numbers are very similar at home, which is emblematic of how the team struggles to win here at Chase Field. Visiting teams are averaging nearly 6.0 rpg at this park and I should also mention that the Dodgers are 16-7 in day games thanks to averaging 5.1 rpg themselves. 8* LA Dodgers

8* NY Mets (1:35 ET): The Mets are looking to bounce back from a 4-2 loss yday to the Phillies. Something I've been harping on all year is the Phillies' record in one-run games, which is now 20-9, the best such win percentage in the entire National League (They are also 5-0 in extra inning games). How fortunate! While Saturday saw them win by two runs, I still think that a discussion of the Phils' record in one-run games is pretty pertinent b/c it illustrates just how lucky they should feel about being within six games of .500. Consider that in games not decided by one run, Philly is just 23-40 and been outscored by 76 runs! I've said it all year; this is one of the worst teams in baseball and I expect the Mets to bounce back Sunday afternoon.

The Mets have only managed to split eight games vs. the Phillies this year.Two of the losses were by one run, not surprisingly. But they did win the one start of Jacob deGrom back in April as he held the Phils to just one run and five hits in six innings of work. It's been another effective year for deGrom (2.61 ERA, 1.108 WHIP), although his team start record is only 8-7. But lately, the results have been all positive as the team has won each of his L3 starts w/ deGrom holding Atlanta, Chicago and Miami to just three runs total (all coming on solo HR's) in 20 IP (has 20 K's). I think the organization's decision to have him skip Tuesday's All-Star Game was a wise one. He'll be taking the mound with a full TEN days rest here, so the increased velocity we saw towards the end of the first half should still be present today.

At the plate, last night's game marked just the second time in 14 games that the Mets didn't hit a home run. In the field, it was a throwing error that led to the go-ahead run for Philadelphia in the seventh inning. The fielding issue is easy to rectify and as for the power outage, they'll be facing a pitcher here (Zach Eflin) that has given up five HR's in six starts. Only one start has seen Eflin strike out more than three batters. I'm simply unwilling to buy into a Phillies team that has been outscored by 1.2 rpg here at home. deGrom is 3-0 lifetime vs. the Phillies w/ a 3.03 ERA.  8* NY Mets

10* Under White Sox/Angels (9:05 ET): The team from the Southside of Chicago suffered the ignominious fate of being shutout in both its final game before the All-Star Break (lost 2-0 to Atlanta) and first game post-Break as they lost 7-0 last night here to the Angels. That was a truly disappointing result as the club had been a perfect 5-0 after suffering a shutout loss this season. I'm unwilling to call for a bounce back tonight, but I will call for another low-scoring affair as all five times these two teams have played this year, the game has stayed Under the total. Outside of Mike Trout, there's no one to fear in the Halos' lineup and I don't see them scoring seven times against here tonight.  Take the Under.

These teams played a four-game set at U.S. Cellular Field back in April (when the White Sox were playing a lot better) and the teams ended up splitting. They exchanged shutout victories in the first two games and then neither of the final two saw more than five total runs scored. So, in five games total, they've yet to combined for more than seven runs and three times the losing side has been blanked. Speaking of being blanked, that's now happened to the White Sox four times in the last 10 games overall! They are just 26th in all of baseball when it comes to runs scored on the road. They managed just five hits in last night's loss. Meanwhile, outside of one big inning, the Angels offense didn't do much either on Friday. Factor out Interleague games and the Under is 40-31-4 for Los Angeles this season.

James Shields was acquired from San Diego in early June and initially had been a disaster for Chicago. But he's shown signs of turning things around w/ a 2.21 ERA his L3 starts. The only loss there was the final game before the Break, where of course the Sox were shutout. Shields had been seeing "all Overs" during his AL tenure until that last start, so you'd naturally now expect things to start going "the other way." In fact, the Under has cashed more than the Over over the course of the season for Shields (9-8-1).  The Under is also 10-6-1 when tonight's starter for the Angels, Matt Shoemaker, is on the mound. Shoemaker's last start at home saw him toss six shutout innings. That marked his fifth consecutive quality start here in Anaheim. 10* Under White Sox/Angels

8* San Francisco (8:40 ET): By dealing Drew Pomeranz to Boston during the All-Star Break, San Diego effectively "waved the white flag" on the 2016 season. Not that anyone thought they were going to make a run in the second half, but the trade made the front office's intentions pretty clear (Note: they did net themselves an outstanding prospect, Anderson Espinoza, who is being hailed by some as the "next Pedro Martinez."). Interestingly, somebody "forgot" to tell the Padres players that the season was over as the team pulled out a somewhat shocking 4-1 win over Madison Bumgarner and the Giants last night here at home (were +205 on the ML!). But there's no denying who the better team is here and I expect San Fran to reassert itself this evening.

The current price range suits the Giants just fine as they are 8-1 this season as a ML road favorite of -150 to -175. Usually, that range is reserved for when Bumgarner is starting, but offseason acquisition Jeff Samardzija continues to be effective as well. The team is 11-7 when he takes the mound and his last time out saw him give up just two runs and five hits in a 6-2 win over Arizona. I was on Samardzija and the Giants that day and see no reason to fade here. Samardzija is 6-1 lifetime vs. San Diego, including 3-0 this season. In three career starts here at Petco Park, his ERA is 1.95 and he's held the Padres to a .177 batting average. Last night marked the first time all season (in 10 games) that the Giants lost to their NL West rivals this season.

Traditionally, San Diego is one of the worst offensive teams in baseball on a year to year basis. So far this season, they rank a modest 17th in runs scored. But a 24th place ranking in team batting average, 27th place ranking in OBP and 22nd place ranking in slugging all suggest that the number of runs scored are likely to decline moving forward. As detailed above, facing Samardzija does them no favors tonight. Outside of Wil Myers, there's really no one to fear in the Padres batting order. As far as their own starter goes, Luis Perdomo has hardly been impressive w/ a 6.11 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in seven starts. The Giants are seventh in baseball in runs scored on the road, so expect them to bounce back from last night's surprising one run performance. 8* San Francisco

8* St. Louis (7:15 ET): What a frustrating year this has been for the Cardinals! It was another one-run loss last night, 7-6, to one of the teams they're competing w/ for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. That would be Miami, who is now two games up on the Redbirds in the standings despite having only a +2 run differential compared to St. Louis' +88 (3rd best in baseball!). Most frustrating of all for the Cards this year has been a now 19-27 home record (keep in mind they went 55-26 LY here at Busch Stadium!). They are also just 7-16 in one-run games. But I'll call for them to bounce back tonight behind Adam Wainwright, who has been a lot better over the course of the last month and a half.

After allowing the fewest number of runs in all of MLB last season, regression was to be expected from the St. Louis pitching staff here in 2016. The drop has been pretty severe, but in the case of Wainwright, he's starting to bounce back. That includes six quality outings in his last seven starts overall, including B2B wins here at home. His last start prior to the Break saw him go seven innings and allow only one run and five hits against a good offensive club (Pittsburgh). He shut Milwaukee out for seven frames in his start prior to that. In eight career starts vs. Miami, Wainwright has an ERA of 2.33. His career ERA of 3.05 after the All-Star Break is also an encouraging sign. 

St. Louis had a 6-5 lead entering the eighth last night, but the combination of a leaky defense and struggling bullpen again conspired to cost them. I believe that Wainwright is certainly capable of negating those two factors here tonight. Also, lost in the St. Louis' struggles is the fact that they have a top four offense in baseball (461 runs scored) and have hit a total of 121 home runs, including four last night. Miami's Tom Koehler has really struggled of late (7.50 ERA, 2.083 WHIP L3 starts) and I can see him putting his team in a big early hole here. The team had lost three straight Koehler starts before he got to pitch against the woeful Reds on Sunday. But a 16-11 KW ratio over his L5 starts isn't going to scare anybody and a career 7.86 ERA vs. the Cardinals is a bad sign as well. 8* St. Louis

10* Under Indians/Twins (8:10 ET): The first and last place teams from the American League Central begin their second halves by facing off and while the Indians have every right to be favored here (even on the road), note it has been the Twins that have taken four of six head to head matchups in 2016. Minnesota also ended its first half by taking five of seven games against Texas, who is the only AL team with a better won-loss record than Cleveland. So be careful about fading the Twins in this spot. Both of these teams went Over in their respective final three games of the first half, but the starting pitching matchup Friday should dictate a much different result here.  Take the Under.

While they were red-hot at the plate going into the Break (7.7 rpg last seven games), Minnesota will have to face Carlos Carrasco here and that's a tall order. Carrasco emerged as one of the AL's best pitchers in the first half w/ a 2.47 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 12 starts. Carrasco started the final game before the Break and while he did give up five runs there, four were unearned. It was his arguably his least productive start of the entire first half and I expect him to bounce back. I say that because he'd allowed only 6 ER in his previous five starts combined! The Under is 5-1 for Carrasco on the road, thanks in large part to a 0.832 WHIP. This all sounds good enough for me as we're talking about a pitcher who has held opponents to a .223 batting average.

I expect Minnesota's Ervin Santana to be dealt by the trade deadline. He's on a team that's well out of contention, but has a 1.33 ERA and 0.787 WHIP his L3 starts and those are the kind of numbers that those clubs that are in contention will covet.  His last time out, Santana tossed a complete game, two-hit shutout where he had eight strikeouts and didn't walk anybody. He hasn't allowed a single home run in three consecutive starts. Earlier this year against Cleveland, he outdueled Corey Kluber by allowing just one run and five hits over 6 IP.  The total for that game was 7.0, so there's definitely some value here. The Twins were the top Over team in baseball in the first half, but I look for that record to move closer to the mean going forward. 10* Under Indians/Twins

9* Under Brewers/Reds (7:10 ET): These are the two also-rans of the National League Central. Milwaukee headed into the All-Star Break 11 games below .500 w/ a -76 run differential. But that's nothing compared to Cincinnati, who is 25 games below the Mendoza Line w/ a -154 run differential, by far MLB's worst.  While head to head matchups from the 1st half provide little support here (Over went 5-1-1), don't be surprised if the hitters come out of the Break a little slow for Friday's series opener. The Reds' bullpen will always be concern, but tonight's starter is not.  Take the Under. 

The sample size is still small, but I like what I've seen from Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani so far in 2016. In six starts, he has not taken a loss and has a 2.23 ERA. The team has won DeSclafani starts at both Texas and Chicago (Cubs) as a money line underdog of +182 and +175 respectively. But here at Great American Ballpark is where he's done his best work with a sterling 0.64 ERA. The last time he pitched at home saw him toss eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball. Starting at that point, each of his last three starts have stayed Under the total. This will be the first time Milwaukee will have seen him.

The Reds have given up - by far - the most runs in all of baseball and are one of only three teams to have seen the Over cash at least a 60% rate over the course of this season. I realize none of that sounds encouraging, but as the numbers (O/U lines) continue to rise, I suspect we'll see the ratio of Unders start to increase for this ballclub. It's not as if they're that prolific offensively. Collectively, they bat only .233 at home. The team batting average was just .229 over the last seven games overall. Thus, it should be a nice "night at the office" for Brew Crew starter Matt Garza, who definitely could use one. But you'll note all five of his starts so far have come against top teams from the NL - the Giants, Dodgers, Nationals (twice) and Cardinals. The Reds, quite clearly, are at the opposite end of that spectrum in the Senior Circuit. 9* Under Brewers/Reds

5* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Though they have certainly "given some back" here in July (lost 8 of last 10 games), make no mistake about it, the Cubs were an absolute juggernaut in the first half of the season. They went into the Break w/ an incredible +139 run differential. That's 34 runs better than the #2 team (Washington) and 58 runs better than the top team from the American League (Cleveland). It is worlds better than the team w/ the AL's best record, Texas (+16), who I expect to regress in the second half. It is amazing to me that two teams w/ nearly identical records could have such disparate scoring differentials. In the lone Interleague series of the weekend, I'm siding with the contingent from the Senior Circuit.

The Rangers hardly went into the Break playing their best baseball either. They won only three of their last 10 games and seven of those came against Minnesota, the worst team in the American League. Again, having a run differential of only +16 shows that they have overachieved greatly en route to a 54-36 record. The key to that record has been 19-7 mark in one-run games, which is easily the best win percentage in such games. Contrary to popular belief, that's luck not a skill. Texas is also a lot better at home (29-15) than on the road (25-21). After earning 55.0 units at the betting window since the start of last season, the Rangers are earmarked (by me) to start giving some back themselves.

Friday's pitching matchup is heavily slanted towards the Cubs, at least in my opinion. Rangers starter Martin Perez has seen the team win eight of his last nine starts, but the last one is the one he lost and he did so in disastrous fashion by giving up 11 runs in four innings at Boston. While the Red Sox are the American League's top scoring team (490 runs scored), the Cubs have scored more than every NL team (460). Meanwhile, the Cubs turn to Kyle Hendricks, who has a 6-2 TSR at Wrigley w/ a 1.56 ERA and 0.808 WHIP. The team has won his last four starts. Hendricks benefits here from the fact the Rangers will be w/o the DH in their batting order. 5* Chi Cubs

10* Under Diamondbacks/Giants (8:05 ET):  The home team is a heavy favorite in the final game before the All-Star Break and for good reason as they'll be sending Madison Bumgarner to the bump. From a value perspective, San Francisco is basically unplayable here, but I think that the Under presents a great opportunity. Obviously, it would be a big lift if the Giants didn't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (always a nice luxury when playing the Under). Yesterday's game was an Under (4-2 Giants' win) as have 20 of the last 32 head to head meetings.

Bumgarner is coming off an excellent showing where he tossed six scoreless innings here at home against Colorado. Incredibly, the Giants would go on to lose that game 7-3.  It was the 13th time in 18 starts that Bumgarner allowed 2 ER or less. This will be his first time facing Arizona since April 20th.  That time he allowed only two runs and five hits across seven innings.  His ERA/WHIP at home is 1.99/0.931.

Arizona has been one of the bigger disappointments of the first half. They've lost 50 games and likely will start unloading players at the trade deadline. They have a very atypical home-road split, but you have to figure they will struggle here offensively. They've scored just two runs in each of the first two games of this series and the Giants are allowing just 3.3 rpg their last seven . Archie Bradley will toe the rubber for them tonight. He'd thrown three straight quality starts before a Fourth of July outing vs. San Diego.  While the Over is 8-2 in all Bradley starts so far, this one will be a much different story considering the opposing pitcher. 10* Under Diamondbacks/Giants

8* Texas (3:05 ET): I have to say that I was quite surprised to see the Rangers lose to the Twins - again - yday. Yes, I am on the record as saying that the A.L. West leaders will likely regress in the second half. But Minnesota is an opponent that they should - theoretically - handle w/ ease. Somehow though, it is the Twins that are 4-2 head to head in the season series (+22 run differential!). Last night saw the road team emerge with an 8-6 victory thanks to a career day at the plate from Eddie Rosario. The issue for Texas is that they're not getting quality starts from the rotation, but I expect A.J. Griffin to get the job done today.

The Rangers are 6-1 in Griffin's last seven starts w/ the right-hander posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. His last time out, they cashed big (+185 on the money line!) at Boston.  Granted, Griffin made it only four innings, but he did his job. What's interesting is that this will be just the second time the team is favored this season w/ Griffin on the hill.  Here at home though is where Griffin generally does his best work. In three starts in Arlington, he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.873 WHIP.  Overall, the team is 29-14 at home this year. Another key is that they are 21-13 off a loss.

Minnesota's Tom Milone has been pretty terrible. He has a 5.18 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in seven starts and is winless on the road w/ both the ERA and WHIP jumping. He is off perhaps his best showing all year, so I'd expect him to regress. That last start, which came Tuesday, was also at home against a pretty poor Oakland club.   I just can't see the Twins beating the Rangers again.  8* Texas 

8* Miami (1:10 ET): Hopefully, you don't need me to point out that Cincinnati is a very bad baseball team. They now have a run differential of -150, which is 41 runs WORSE than the second worst team. To put the Reds current run diff in its proper perspective, consider that the worst in baseball last year was Atlanta's -187 and that was after 162 games. Cincy is being outscored by 1.7 rpg this year and that number jumps over 2.0 when they're on the road where their record is now 14-31 after yday's 4-2 loss. Today's starter Cody Reed certainly gives little reason to believe. This is a good price to go against the worst team in baseball.

Miami has managed to keep itself "above water" in the first half. They will go into the Break above .500 and depending on what transpires today could even be tied for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They've held the Reds to just three runs in two games in this series. Today's starter Tom Koehler has had somewhat of an "up and down" season as he's lost each of his last three starts after winning his previous three. But in his last 10 starts, he's allowed more than 3 ER only twice. I have to imagine that trend continues here given the lack of offense we've seen from the Reds in the first two games.

Something else that must always factored in when handicapping the Reds is just how horrible their bullpen is. This group has an unsightly 5.57 ERA and 1.590 WHIP. They have more blown saves than actual saves and give up an average of 2.5 runs per game!  While the team did pick up a couple of wins against the Cubs earlier this week, I can't see them summoning up the desire to pick up a win on the road in the final game before the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, Miami is 7-2 as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range on the money line this year. 8* Miami

    

10* Texas (9:05 ET): The Rangers are a team, record-wise, that I anticipate falling off a bit in the second half of the season. I say this because despite having the best record in the American League (54-34), they are only SEVENTH in run differential (+28)! It was another one-run victory yday (now 19-7 in one-run games this year, best win % in MLB), but fortunately for them, regression is unlikely to hit just yet as they draw the lowly Twins in the final series of the first half. Minnesota did take the opener here, 10-1 on Thursday, but that very well could end up being their lone victory of this series. I like Texas Saturday night.

Before last night's win, the Rangers had actually lost to the Twins three straight times over the past week. Two of the losses were by 9+ runs, which is not good. Their only two wins in the two series vs. Minnesota have both been by one run. That all being said, we need to look at the Twins as a whole. They are a horrendous 14-41 after a loss this season and 11-29 on the road. They've been better of late (won 5 of 7), but still have - by far - the worst run differential in the entire American League (-83). We know that CF Byron Buxton will be missing from the lineup today after injuring his knee Friday.

There has been a pitching change here for the Rangers as they will go w/ Kyle Lohse instead of Nick Martinez. That's just fine by me as Martinez's ERA (6.87) and WHIP (1.984) were hardly anything to crow about.  Lohse is a veteran being called up to the big league roster thanks to three Texas starters currently being out due to injuries. I think this is a good spot to use him. He'll be opposed by Ricky Nolasco, who is 0-3 w/ a 6.87 ERA and 1.690 WHIP his L3 starts. He allowed 7 ER in his last road start.  The Rangers are averaging 5.3 rpg this season at home where they are 29-13 overall.  10* Texas

8* Chi Cubs (7:15 ET): It was going to be damn near impossible for the Cubs to maintain the torrid pace they set earlier this season, but they have have definitely "given some back" in recent days. They've actually now lost four straight and 8 of their last 10 games. But I always like to keep things in their proper perspective and the bottom line is that this team still has a +144 run differential (45 runs better than #2 team). After losing 8-4 last night here in Pittsburgh, I like the NL Central leaders to bounce back.

The Cubs were in a bit of a bad spot last night as they had to play a make up game vs. Atlanta Thursday. Yes, I realize the Pirates were in St. Louis Thursday afternoon, but I'll still take that over a third opponent in three days (situation Cubs were facing). I am shocked - repeat shocked - that the Cubs had lost three in a row combined to the Reds & Braves (two worst teams in baseball). In a way, I wasn't as shocked yday as they were 8-1 head to head vs. Pittsburgh this season and probably "due" to drop one. But w/ Jon Lester on the bump tonight, I like their chances to reclaim their dominance over the Bucs. Lester has already faced this opponent three times in 2016. He's allowed just 4 ER in 18 1/3 IP and that includes shutting them out (for 5 2/3 IP) here at PNC Park.

Now Lester is looking to bounce back from a disastrous outing where he allowed eight runs in 1 1/3 IP in New York Sunday. Considering that's the same number of earned runs he'd allowed - combined - in his previous seven outings, I like his chances of bouncing back here. He should be well-rested after such a short outing as well. Pittsburgh will go w/ Chad Kuhl opposite Lester. Kuhl has won both of his starts so far - as an underdog - thereby turning a nice profit. But his ERA (4.09) and WHIP (1.364) aren't that impressive. Yes, the Pirates have won eight of nine while the Cubs have lost 16 of 25. But I was correct in bucking Pittsburgh Thursday and it should be pointed out they had to come from behind (scored five runs in 7th/8th innings) yday. 8* Chi Cubs

8* Boston (4:05 ET): The Red Sox survived what will likely be their biggest challenge of this series, that being yday's Sean O'Sullivan vs. Chris Archer pitching matchup, coming away with a 6-5 victory. Having now won four of five, the pitching matchup is far more in Boston's favor today. Not that they need many more added advantages against a Rays team that has now dropped 20 of 23 games. Just 11-30 vs. teams w/ a winning record, Tampa Bay is simply just looking to get to the All-Star Break at this point.

Saturday starter Rick Porcello loves pitching at Fenway Park. He's 7-0 in eight starts here (8-0 TSR) w/ a 3.60 ERA and 1.180 WHIP. His last start came here at home on July 4th and while he allowed 12 hits in six innings, he still came away with a relatively easy 12-5 victory against the Rangers. Things were actually a lot easier for Porcello in his last road start, which came against Tampa Bay, as he allowed just one run and five hits in six innings. That was the second time he beat the Rays this season (2.77 ERA). Overall, the Rays are a pretty weak hitting team (2.9 rpg L7 games), so there's no reason to expect anything different this go around. The third time will not be the charm for Tampa Bay.

While "there's no place like home" for Porcello, the road has been unkind to Tampa Bay's Matt Moore. He's 0-3 away from home in six starts (0-6 TSR) w/ a 6.43 ERA and 1.657 WHIP. Now he did pitch very well against the Red Sox his last time out as he delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. But that was at Tropicana Field. In fact, four of Moore's last five starts have been at home and all four were quality. But the one road start saw him give up five runs. He allowed the same number at Arizona back on June 7th. Something to keep in mind here is that the Red Sox are the highest scoring team in the American League.  It's pretty surprising that the Rays are 4-3 head to head w/ Boston this year. But, again, they are 0-2 vs. Porcello. 8* Boston

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Arizona has played San Fran pretty tough in 2016 as the latter is only 6-5 head to head in the season series. Most interesting is that the D'backs pulled off the rare four-game sweep - as the road team - back in April. I talked about how tough that achievement is to pull off in yday's analysis on Pirates-Cardinals, where I backed the home team off three consecutive losses and sure enough, they came through. Alas, the Giants did not do the same when I played them on April 21st (w/ Johnny Cueto pitching!), but they've since taken five of six from their NL West rival and I have them winning again here in Friday's opener. These are two teams that I expect to grow further and further apart in the standings moving forward.

Arizona's unusual home-road dichotomy extends far beyond just playing San Francisco. The team is coming off a pretty terrible 2-7 homestand and is now a horrendous 15-32 for the year at Chase Field. One of their two wins on the recently completed homestand came w/ tonight's starter Pat Corbin on the hill, against the Giants no less, but that turns this into an immediate revenge spot for Jeff Samardzija, who took the loss opposite Corbin on 7.2. Note Samardzija actually allowed fewer runs (4) than Corbin did (5) in last week's matchup, but the Giants bullpen blew the game in the bottom of the eighth. "That is one we let get away," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. Agreed.

Rather quietly, San Francisco has more wins than any other team in baseball right now. Texas could match them Thursday, but there's a lot more to like about a Giants club that ranks sixth in baseball in run differential. I can't say the same about Arizona, who is -44 in run differential and been one of the bigger disappointments in the entire National League this season (somewhat predictable, a lot of people saw that coming). With only four wins in 17 starts, Corbin gives you little to "hang your hat on" here and I expect Samardzija to get his revenge. SF has won 21 of 33 games this year when facing a LH starter and Arizona is giving up a ghastly 7.3 runs per game its previous seven contests. 8* San Francisco

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Note that this is being written prior to the completion of Thursday night's game, but regardless of the outcome there, I'll be backing the Blue Jays on Friday. Once again, what had been a red hot Tigers team (had won 6 straight!) was quickly extinguished by Cleveland earlier this week. Sure, Detroit did win 12-2 Wednesday afternoon, but that was only after dropping the first two games of the three-game set. Now they have to hit the road to take on another top American League contender, that being Toronto, who comes into this series riding its own five-game win streak. You'll recall that it was around this team last year that the Jays really "took flight" and I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened here in 2016. Their +64 run differential (entering Thurs) is second best in the entire A.L., behind only Cleveland.

Detroit did take two of three from Toronto in early June, but that series took place in the Motor City. On the road this year, the Tigers have been a losing proposition while the Blue Jays are 24-19, averaging 5.1 rpg, here at home. Toronto is one of only three A.L. clubs to be at least four games above .500 both at home and on the road (Cleveland, Texas). Remember that they were able to split w/ the Indians, here at home, snapping the Tribe's 14-game win streak last weekend. They followed that up by sweeping Kansas City right out of town in a rematch of LY's ALCS.

The first time JA Happ started against Detroit this year, things did not go well. He came out on the wrong end of an 11-0 decision, but results such as that have been few and far between for the veteran southpaw this year. He's gone 11-3 in 17 starts (12-5 TSR) and here at Rogers Centre is where he's been most successful (7-1 TSR). Admittedly, his ERA/WHIP aren't that great, but those numbers are even worse for Tigers' starter Mike Pelfrey, who is winless in eight road starts w/ a 1.756 WHIP. Over his L3 starts, Pelfrey has a 5.94 ERA and 2.101 WHIP, yet somehow the team has won all three games! His fortunes turn here in Toronto, however, as the Blue Jays should take care of business. 8* Toronto

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET):  The Indians suffered a rare setback yday afternoon, losing 12-2 to the Tigers. While that was their second loss by 10+ runs since Sunday (lost 17-1 in Toronto), it should be noted that they've lost only one other time (Saturday, and I was on the right side there) in their last 19 games overall. They get to stay at home for the final series before the All-Star Break, against the Yankees, who were shut out last night in Chicago. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Outside of the back end of their bullpen, there's just no reason to fear the team wearing pinstripes any longer as they've been outscored by 32 runs this season and really should not be considered a playoff contender. I'd rank them as a bottom five team in the American League. Cleveland is the best that the AL has to offer.

Based on recent efforts, it would appear as if we have a sizable pitching mismatch on our hands tonight at Progressive Field. The Indians' Trevor Bauer has a 1.64 ERA and 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all wins for the team, while the Yankees' Ivan Nova has a 6.28 ERA and 1.675 WHIP his L3 starts, all team losses. Nova was better his last time out, but that was against light-hitting San Diego. Cleveland is averaging a healthy 5.6 rpg at home this year w/ a team batting average of .292. Nova really hasn't looked very good all season (5.04 ERA, 1.418 WHIP) and opponents are hitting .333 against him since his last win, which came all the way back on June 9th.

Meanwhile, facing a team that was just shutout has to sound nice to Bauer, who actually hasn't started a game since June 27th. That's because he was called into duty in last Friday's marathon (19-inning) win over Toronto and held the Jays to only two hits over five scoreless innings. Like most of Cleveland's starting rotation, Bauer is having an excellent year overall as he's made seven consecutive quality starts. There's been only one time all season where he's given up more than 3 ER. At home, his WHIP is a very good 0.992 and his last time starting here saw him go the distance, holding Tampa Bay to one run on three hits while posting a season-high 10 K's. The Indians are 2-0 this season after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. 8* Cleveland

8* St. Louis (1:45 ET): Last week, I rode the Cardinals in every game en route to a three-game sweep of the Brewers. This series has proven to be far more difficult as they've dropped the first three games to the Pirates, who are now winners of seven in a row, all on the road. But pulling off a four-game sweep on the road is hard to do and I think the Bucs come up short this afternoon.  Pittsburgh has been very impressive over the course of its win streak (outscored opp by 3.3 rpg), but they have a losing record in day games and will turn to an unknown commodity on the mound in the form of Tyler Glasnow. The line moving makes this a great value play on the home team today.

We'll need Adam Wainwright to step up here, much in the same way he did for us against Milwaukee last weekend. Pitching here at Busch Stadium, the Cards' right-hander delivered seven shutout innings of seven-hit ball. If you had a chance to read my analysis for that particular matchup, you'll recall that I called for Wainwright to bounce back from a rather shaky outing against Kansas City on 6.27. Also, it should be pointed out that save for that one start against the Royals, Wainwright has been pretty good of late. He's allowed 3 ER or less in five of six starts since the start of June. Overall, the team is 10-3 his L13 outings. That includes a 6-4 win against Pittsburgh back on May 7th. Wainwright allowed only three runs in 6 1/3 IP there.

I'm still somewhat stunned that St. Louis is just 18-26 at home this year. This is a club that went 55-26 in its home park last season. They're actually basically even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed at home this season (4.4 vs. 4.4 per game). They led yday, 5-1, and did outhit the Pirates, 12-9. When on a three-game losing streak, the Cards are 16-6 the L3 seasons. Today, they'll face Glasnow, who is making his big league debut. The 6'6" prospect impressed in Triple-A, but control has been an issue for him as three times he led his league in walks and at one point he had a 1.50 WHIP! Look for the Cardinals to avoid the four-game sweep at home this afternoon. 8* St. Louis

8* Toronto (7:07 ET):  I was on the Blue Jays Monday night as they took the series opener from the Royals, 6-2. I should have followed up w/ them last night (laid off the game) as they won again, this time 8-3. They've now scored 40 runs over the course of a four-game win streak, including Sunday's 17-1 demolition of what has been a very hot Cleveland team. Remember last year, this team did not peak until right after the All-Star Break. Could it be a little deja vu "North of the Border?" Perhaps. But I know it won't be deja vu from LY's ALCS (won in six games by KC) as Toronto is poised to sweep the Royals right out of the Rogers Centre.

After winning the World Series last Fall, many (myself included) figured the Royals would regress a bit in 2016. They have, although not to the degree some had anticipated. They are actually still three games above .500, but have a run differential of -23, making them them arguably the biggest "overachiever" in the entire American League during the first half. Based on that run differential, their "expected" win total is just 39. The only teams with larger negative gaps in terms of actual vs. expected wins this year are: Texas (-6) and Philadelphia (-7). As I've stated many times before, the Royals biggest problem this year has been awful play on the road. They're just 16-29 outside of Kauffman Stadium and getting outscored by 1.2 rpg.

Marcus Stroman has been a pretty big disappointment for Toronto thus far, but his last time out was the definition of "hard-luck." He faced a Cleveland team that at the time was on a 13-gm win streak and held them to only one run and five hits in 6 2/3 IP. That was the marathon game that ended up going 19 innings w/ the Indians winning 2-1. This is a better matchup for Stroman, however, as KC comes in averaging only 3.3 rpg its last seven contests (.225 BA). It also appears as if some mechanical issues have been worked out for Stroman. His sinker mostly stayed down vs. Cleveland and not only did he have six strikeouts, he induced 10 groundball outs (only two via flyball). I definitely like Stroman more than Royals starter Ian Kennedy here as the latter has allowed 20 home runs this season and has a 5.37 ERA in 10 road starts after taking a loss to the lowly Phillies his last time out. 8* Toronto

10* Over Orioles/Dodgers (3:05 ET): Baltimore fared a lot better on Tuesday than they did Monday here at Dodger Stadium, winning 4-1 after dropping the series opener by a score of 7-5. But w/ Kevin Gausman pitching this afternoon, you have to figure it will be difficult for Buck Showalter's team to take the rubber match. Gausman has yet to win on the road in eight tries this season and has a 5.02 ERA and 1.488 WHIP to show for it. He was better his last time out w/ a quality start in Seattle, but the O's still lost 5-2. Interestingly enough, eight of Gausman's last nine starts (including that last one) have stayed Under the total. But today's O/U line is lower than all nine previous outings.  Take the Over.

Bud Norris has been quite the revelation for the Dodgers, but this team still figures to be in trouble w/o the services of Clayton Kershaw. Consider that they are 14-2 when their ace is on the hill, but only 34-36 in all other games. Even though Norris enters today w/ a 13-inning scoreless streak in tow (including time w/ the Braves) and has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts (0.98 ERA, 0.873 WHIP), I question just how effective he and the rest of the back end of LA's rotation can be over the long-term. Baltimore's lineup is w/o the DH spot here, but they still should be feared. This team basically averages 5.0 rpg and is tied for fifth overall in runs scored (all of MLB). Norris is "due" for a bad start, in my opinion. This is his 1st time starting in Dodger Stadium since coming over from Atlanta. Though noted as "pitcher friendly," there could be a learning curve at his new home park.

The Orioles know Norris well as he pitched for them from 2013-15. I realize that Dodger Stadium has seen - on average - the lowest scoring games of any venue in all of MLB this season, but the O/U line set here is just too low. There have been only four times this year where the total was 7.5 runs or lower in a Norris start and the Over went 3-1 in those games. As for Gausman, he hasn't seen a total this low for one of his starts since early May. Prior to yday, Baltimore pitching had allowed over 7.0 rpg itself over a seven-game stretch. The Over is 16-5-2 in day games for them this season. 10* Over Orioles/Dodgers

5* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets came into this series riding high as they swept a four-game series from the Cubs (repeat of LY's NLCS) here at Citi Field last weekend. But in both games here vs. Miami, they've fallen into deep holes. On Monday, they were fortunate enough to climb out as they erased a 6-0 deficit and stormed back to take the game by a score of 8-6. But they weren't so lucky last night, even though they scored first, as they ended up falling 5-2. The difference there was two swings of the bat by Miami's Giancarlo Stanton, who supplied all five runs batted in for his team. But make no mistake about it, today the Mets are heavily favored for a reason. They have Jacob deGrom on the bump and that alone should be enough to carry them to victory here. 

The Marlins counter deGrom w/ Juan Nicasio, who hasn't had a particularly great first half of the season. That's actually putting things mildly as Nicasio comes in sporting a 5.34 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in his 11 starts. The team has been able to scratch its way to a mediocre 5-6 mark in those games, though Nicasio certainly has made it hard on them. Over his L3 starts, all of which have come on the road, the southpaw has an 8.21 ERA and 2.021 WHIP as he's allowed 14 runs and 29 hits in just 15 1/3 innings of work. Somehow, Miami has still managed to win two of those games. That should be considered "fortunate," as should the fact the team is currently four games above .500. They've been outscored over the course of the season. This three-start stretch for Nicasio doesn't even include a 10-0 loss he took against Pittsburgh. 

Nicasio has also lost both times he's faced the Mets in his career. As for deGrom, he's 3-1 w/ a 2.80 ERA in seven starts against this division rival. He was due for some run support his last time out and got it in a 10-2 win over the Cubs where he did his job as well, allowing just one run and three hits in 5 IP. That was on the heels of five consecutive quality starts where deGrom's offense scored a grand total of THREE times! Overall, he's allowed 3 ER or less in seven straight starts. Thanks to rain in that start vs. the Cubs, he threw only 85 pitches (52 for strikes), so he should be ready to roll here. 5* NY Mets

10* NY Yankees (8:10 ET): The Yankees took it "on the chin" last night, losing 8-2 on the Southside of Chicago, but I feel the team in pinstripes is poised to bounce back tonight w/ their ace Masahiro Tanaka on the bump. Tanaka has an 11-5 team start record so far in 2016 and a 1.060 WHIP. He's generally saved his best work for the road this season (1.32 ERA/0.902 WHIP in seven starts) and should bounce back from a rough outing against Texas last Wednesday (that the Yanks still won). The money line is telling here as the White Sox are just 2-6 this year as a home dog of +125 or less. While they've won five of six, Chicago's last four-game win streak came all the way back in early May. Road team gets revenge here.

New York definitely had its fair share of chances at the plate last night, but wound up going 0 for 13 w/ RISP. Three errors from shortstop Didi Gregorious didn't help matters either. But the good news is that those issues can be remedied rather quickly. Tonight, they'll face Carlos Rodon, who has a 5-10 TSR and 1.460 WHIP. I can't see him outdueling Tanaka. He has not won since May 22nd, a span of seven starts. He's made only two career starts vs. the Yankees, one decent and one very bad, with the result being a 10.00 ERA. I don't anticipate the fielding issues arising again as this team is pretty average in terms of fielding percentage and Gregorious in particular tends to be sure-handed.

Tanaka is working on an extra day's rest here, which is typically quite beneficial for him. When working on five days' rest, Tanaka is 16-7 w/ a 2.84 ERA in his career. Even though he was touched up a bit his last time out (vs. the Rangers), he still made it through six innings, which was the eighth consecutive start he's done that. He'd allowed 3 ER or less in six of his previous seven outings. We also know how good the back end of the Yankees' bullpen is. So, if Tanaka gets the team to the seventh w/ a lead, then it should be lights out here. Interestingly, the Yankees are 6-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 on the money line this season, so being overpriced is really not an issue. 10* NY Yankees

    

10* Under Mariners/Astros (8:10 ET):  Both of these teams are looking up at the Rangers in the AL West, but still have more than reasonable chances of at least making it into the playoffs as a Wild Card. Houston moved ahead of Seattle in the standings after a 2-1 win last night and I think we'll see another low-scoring game tonight. These division rivals are both in the top four in terms of runs allowed in the American League and have combined for six runs or less each of the last three times that they've played. While Astros starter Dallas Keuchel has suffered through some uncharacteristic struggles this season at Minute Maid Park, he did pitch well in his last start here at home. Seattle starter Taijuan Walker also pitched very well the last time we saw him. Take the Under.

Houston started the season in somewhat of a hole. On May 22nd, they were 11 games below .500. But since that time, they've gone 27-11 and are legit playoff contenders. Much is owed to the fact that 15 times in those previous 38 games, they've held their opponent to two runs or fewer. Seattle could muster very little at the plate last night as they finished the game w/ only five hits while striking out 12 times. Lance McCullers turned in his best effort of the season for the home side and I think Keuchel is in line for a similar type of effort tonight. Keep in mind Keuchel was 17-2 at home in 2015 w/ a 1.45 ERA and 0.902 WHIP. His last start here saw him hold an admittedly weak Cincinnati club to just two runs and five hits in seven innings. He's since gone 2-0 w/ a 3.65 ERA, while getting a ton of run support, something that I do not anticipate being the case here. Keuchel has a 3.09 ERA in 11 career appearances vs. the Mariners. He held them to only two runs in seven innings back on May 7th, in what ended up being a 3-2 loss (would gladly take that same result here). By virtue of being a lefty, Keuchel should do well here against a lefty-heavy lineup. Behind Keuchel is a bullpen which has been the AL's best (2.54 ERA) since May 1.

For Seattle, Walker has been battling tendinitis, but was able to still deliver a quality outing against the fearsome Baltimore lineup on Thursday, holding them to one run on four hits. That came after he held Boston (#1 in MLB in runs scored) scoreless for five frames 11 days prior. Houston has been his most common opponent in his career and in 52 IP, he has 58 strikeouts. I look for another-low scoring affair Tuesday night in Houston. 10* Under Mariners/Astros

9* Under Tigers/Indians (7:10 ET):  Cleveland won again yday, 5-3, improving to an amazing 10-0 vs. the Tigers this season. For Detroit, the loss snapped a six-game win streak and was an all-too familiar result here at Progressive Field. Note that their was a rather lengthy rain delay, so it's a shorter than expected turnaround between games tonight. Once again, the Indians will be sending out one of their best arms, Carlos Carrasco, who like teammate Danny Salazar has been making a case that his name belongs in the discussion for AL Cy Young honors. Carrasco has a 1.14 ERA and 0.803 WHIP his L3 starts after completely dominating Toronto his last time out. But while the pitching matchup seems solidly in their favor, don't be surprised if the Indians struggle to score runs tonight themselves. Take the Under.

Cleveland has now won 15 of its last 17 games overall. They have - by far - the best run differential in the American League at +78. Being #1 in the runs allowed side of the ledger has a lot to do w/ that as the Tribe have given up 28 less runs than the #2 team in the AL (Houston). They were rocked for 17 in an embarrassing loss Sunday, but showed a "return to form" last night by holding the Tigers to just three. Carrasco allowed just one (on a solo HR) in his last start, finishing w/ a season-high 14 K's as he gave up just three hits in 7+ innings of work. That was after he went the distance in a CG shutout of this Tigers team (in Detroit) on 6.25 (allowed only four hits). Earlier this year, he held them scoreless and to just one hit in an abbreviated start (2 2/3 IP) where he left due to injury.

In their 10 losses to Cleveland this year, the Tigers have scored a grand total of 23 runs (that's 2.3 rpg). That's not an encouraging sign whatsoever as the most runs they've scored in any one game is four. I must admit that it's not great that manager Brad Ausmus has decided to go w/ Anibal Sanchez rather than Jordan Zimmerman here, but the Tribe is batting only .239 its last seven games and remember they scored only two runs in that 19-inning marathon on Friday. The Over has been a big moneymaker here at Progressive Field this season and the Tigers have been one of the top Over teams as well. But, for today, I think we'll see a little good ol' fashioned regression to the mean. 9* Under Tigers/Indians

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays certainly ought to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now after snapping the Indians' 14-game win streak (best in MLB this season) Saturday and then drubbing them on Sunday by a score of 17-1. Yesterday's result actually gives the Jays not only the best run differential in their division, but also the third best in the entire American League (+53). Up next is a series with the team that eliminated them from LY's ALCS, the Royals. While these teams may have comparable won-loss records, the respective run differentials are anything but, as KC has been outscored by 14 runs over the course of this season after taking a 7-2 loss to the Phillies yday. This is the first meeting since LY's ALCS and I think - at home - Toronto is going to be very fired up.

Losing to the Phillies 7-2, even on the road, is pretty bad. The Royals actually dropped two of three in Philly over the weekend as they lost the series opener as well. "Pretty bad" is also an apropos way to describe KC's YTD record away from home as it's 16-27, which is worse than every other American League team's w/ the exception of Minnesota. It's by no means a misleading record either; the Royals have been outscored by over a full run per game on the road this season as they are averaging only 3.2 rpg themselves. Toronto, on the the other hand, is one of just six AL teams to have a winning record both at home and on the road. They average 5.0 rpg at Rogers Centre and have totaled 41 hits here the last three games!

Edinson Volquez certainly doesn't give the Royals much of a prayer here. Over his L3 starts, he has a 10.29 ERA and 1.857 WHIP. Yes, he did just toss six shutout innings his last time out. But, the start before that was a complete disaster as he allowed 12 runs in ONE inning! He also was fortunate to get a win on 6.18 vs. Detroit despite giving up five runs. On the road, Volquez has a 5.90 ERA and 1.664 WHIP. He also has a 6.46 ERA in six career starts vs. the Blue Jays (no wins). I definitely like Toronto's starting option (Aaron Sanchez) a whole lot more as he comes in w/ an 8-1 record (10-6 TSR seems misleading) as he comes in off three consecutive quality starts, the last one seeing him allow just one run and six hits in eight innings of work - at Coors Field.  8* Toronto

7* St. Louis (2:15 ET): I rode the Cardinals in every game this past weekend and that move paid off as they wound up sweeping the lowly Brewers at home. Each day, I went through the reasons why I thought it was a good time to "buy low" on the Redbirds. It started with their surprisingly poor home record (still only 18-23), which doesn't seem fair because they've actually outscored opponents at Busch Stadium over the course of the year. They also went 55-26 at home last season, so these "home struggles" are certainly uncharacteristic. Overall, the team now has a +82 overall run differential for the year, which is third best in all of baseball! Thankfully, they've also seemed to "clean things up" in the field as well (they lead MLB in errors). Therefore, I'll continue to ride them Monday as they welcome in the Pirates.

The last time that these NL Central rivals met (last month), it was a St. Louis sweep in Pittsburgh. The Cards won all three games at PNC Park by at least four runs. The Bucs continued to struggle following that series as they would go on to lose eight of their next nine to fall a season-worst five games below .500. But they're now back at the Mendoza Line after a sweep of Oakland over the weekend. That was a series the oddsmakers badly mispriced as the Pirates were actually ML dogs in every game. But while the Bucs have now won seven of nine, six of those wins coming in the underdog role, I still don't like them today.

I certainly think that Monday's pitching matchup favors the home team.  The Pirates turn to Jon Niese, who may have started the year w/ a 5-0 TSR in April, but I was never a believer. His ERA/WHIP have always been a bit high for my liking and lately those numbers have gotten a bit "out of control" (7.31/1.875 L3 starts). That doesn't even include him allowing all eight runs in an 8-3 loss to the Cardinals on June 12th. St. Louis tagged him for 11 hits in 5 1/3 IP there, including two home runs. Niese will be opposed here by Carlos Martinez, who has turned in a 1.06 ERA his L6 starts. He's allowed just 1 ER in his last 20 IP, yet the team has actually lost all three of those games by one run! So, Martinez is definitely "due" here and he did very nearly go the distance against Pittsburgh (lasted 8 1/3 innings) on June 11th, giving up only one run on six hits. With both teams facing a relatively quick turnaround from yday, it's advantage home team. 7* St. Louis

   

8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): Save for a stunning 21-2 demolition of the Red Sox on Saturday, the Angels have not been playing well of late. They've lost 11 of 13 games and are in last place in the AL West at 16 games below .500 for the season. They lost 10-5 Sunday, so there goes any "momentum" stemming from the one win. The thing about a game like Saturday is that it's just one game. It skews all the recent numbers. I truly believe that was just an anomaly and not any kind of predictor of future success for the Angels. Coming into the year, this is a team that I wasn't particularly high on anyway. The starting rotation offers little hope on a game by game basis and that's certainly the case Monday in an early start time for the team.

In retrospect, I think that it's safe to say that the oddsmakers had the Rays series with the Tigers mispriced. Tampa Bay, a favorite in all but one game, wound up getting swept. Like the Angels, the Rays have hardly been playing well themselves. They too are a last place team and have just two wins in their last 18 games. But if there's one thing we can look to here its the fact the Rays swept the Halos, in LA, back in May. Also, I need to point out that Tampa was hardly dominated by Detroit. Three of the four games certainly qualified as "winnable." The opener saw them blow a 7-2 ninth inning lead. After being beaten 10-2 Friday, they then dropped a one-run game Saturday and then wasted a perfectly quality start from Chris Archer on Sunday as a 1-0 lead quickly turned into a 5-1 loss thanks to the bullpen.

Hopefully, Monday's starter for the Rays, Matt Moore, can deliver something similar to what Archer did yday. His last time out, he certainly demonstrated that he is capable of doing so. He held Boston, the highest scoring team in all of baseball, scoreless over seven innings and to only three hits. Two of Moore's last three starts here at Tropicana Field have seen him not give up a run. Meanwhile, the Halos turn to Nick Tropeano, who is making his return from Triple-A.  He did finish w/ a season-best 10 K's in an outing vs. the Rays earlier this year, but still lost the game due to giving up seven hits, two of them home runs. Tropeano wasn't deemed effective enough to remain in the team's rotation once before; there's no reason to believe he will be this time around. 8* Tampa Bay

    

8* Miami (8:05 ET): The Marlins suffered a shocking result Saturday afternoon as they had Jose Fernandez on the bump and lost to Atlanta by a score of 9-2. Yes, Fernandez has certainly proven himself to be more fallible on the road over the course of his career, but no one should be losing to the Braves by that kind of margin. Especially considering Atlanta's woeful 13-33 record at Turner Field (worst home record in baseball) this season. Note tonight's game is actually being played at a neutral site - Fort Bragg, NC - as ESPN Sunday Night Baseball has chosen to play the first ever MLB game at a military base in honor of the 4th of July holiday. I'm going with Miami to bounce back as their lack of success against their NL East rival this year makes no sense.

Atlanta is now 8-3 vs. the Marlins in 2016, but just 19-50 in all other games. That doesn't speak well to Miami's future projections, but they have at least been able to split the L6 head to head meetings. For whatever reason, Fernandez has seemed to struggle against only bad opponents and the Braves definitely got to him early yday, not just in the game, but in the count as well. Tonight though, I really like Adam Conley's chances. He's a lefty and Atlanta is only 9-21 in games this season vs. southpaw starters. Conley is known for working fast in between pitches and his walk rate is somewhat misleading due to issuing five intentional passes. He dominated this Braves lineup back on June 22nd, holding them scoreless on four hits over 8 IP. Conley has never lost to Atlanta in four career starts and has a 1.46 ERA in two starts against them in 2016.

Almost every Braves starter has a losing team start record this year and Matt Wisler is certainly a name on that list. The team is only 4-11 when he pitches and a 4.18 ERA certainly hasn't helped his cause. Nor has a 1.499 WHIP his L3 starts. Interestingly, despite all the times these teams have played this season, this will be the first time the Wisler has started against the Marlins. He did give up five runs in 5 1/3 innings to them last August. The Braves are an atrocious 18-38 in night games this season. 8* Miami

8* Seattle (4:05 ET): Here's another team going for the sweep on Sunday. In this instance, I "only" backed the Mariners yday (won 12-6), but the results of this particular series have not surprised me in the least. I say that because I'll continue to question Baltimore until they can demonstrate they are capable of playing better on the road. I've said this many times before, but it bears repeating - the O's schedule so far has been very "home-heavy" (44 of 80 games played at Camden Yards) and their now 16-20 road record should be cause for concern as too should be sending Ubaldo Jimenez to the bump this afternoon. Seattle, who is now only 5.5 games worse than Baltimore in the standings, actually has a better YTD run differential.

In yday's analysis, I talked about how the Orioles starting rotation isn't going to scare anyone. That's certainly the case w/ Jimenez. "Ubaldo's had two good outings in a row," said manager Buck Showalter, "so we hope that continues." The problem there, skip, is that Jiminez still has a 6.23 ERA and 1.887 WHIP for the season. On the road, those marks jump to 8.37 and 2.155 respectively. Another issue Showalter is facing is that these starters simply aren't going deep into games. Usually, he's very good at managing the bullpen, but due to the T.J. McFarland injury he simply does not have a lot of left-handed options to turn to before closer Zach Britton. Baltimore is 1-6 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +150 on the money line.

The long-ball has largely carried this Orioles offense this season, but you'll note that Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma didn't give up any in his last outing, a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh. There, Iwakuma allowed just two runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. His numbers aren't what you necessarily like to see, but I'll project him to get ample support here as in five of the last seven games, the Mariners have finished with 10 or more hits. Meanwhile, there have already been four starts this season by Jimenez where the opponent ended up scoring at least 10 runs. Seattle hit five home runs yday, is seventh in total runs scored in all of MLB, seventh in slugging and 10th in OBP. Iwakuma threw a no-hitter against Baltimore last season. 8* Seattle

6* St. Louis (2:15 ET):  As I had projected, the Cardinals have begun to turn things around here at Busch Stadium. I've been on them in each of the first two games of this series w/ Milwaukee and they've won both, 7-1 on Friday and 3-0 yday afternoon. I think that over the course of the last two days my analysis has made a pretty clear cut case that the Redbirds should have a better record at this point in the season, particularly here at home. They went 55-26 at home last season, but are still just 17-23 here in 2016 despite having actually outscored opponents. Their YTD run differential of +81 is fourth best in all of baseball, so clearly better things SHOULD be on the horizon. I'll call for them to finish off the sweep here.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, is not a very good team. They have a YTD run differential of -66 (5th worst in baseball), scored all of two runs total the L3 games and will be sending out a pitcher who has a 12.71 ERA and 2.295 WHIP his L3 starts. They're also 15-31 vs. St. Louis since the start of the 2014 season. They have yet to win a game this season when they are a road underdog of +175 or higher on the money line. Overall, their road record is just 13-25. The pitcher in question here is Chase Anderson, who has allowed 17 runs in 11 1/3 innings. He's given up 19 hits and issued seven walks during that time as well. In eight games this season against the Cardinals, the Brew Crew have been outscored 48-14 while getting shutout three times.

Another issue for St. Louis this season has been poor defense (lead MLB w/ 64 errors), but they were errorless yday and even turned four double plays. That's certainly a positive sign and I'm sure today's starter Michael Wacha would love to get similar help. Wacha hasn't needed much help in his career against Milwaukee as he's never lost to them. That includes tossing six shutout innings of four-hit ball back in April w/ seven strikeouts. As stated earlier, Milwaukee has done very little scoring of late and all season vs. St. Louis for that matter, so this should be an easy one for Wacha. His offense, factoring in the pitcher they are facing, should definitely provide ample support given that they are 4th in all of MLB in runs scored. 6* St. Louis

10* Under Angels/Red Sox (1:35 ET): When I saw the score of last night's game, I had to hit refresh just to ensure I wasn't hallucinating. In case you missed it, the Angels won 21-2. Yes, you read that correctly. History was made w/ a pair of teammates - CJ Cron and Carlos Perez - combining for 11 hits and 11 RBI's, which is something that had never happened before in game in MLB history. Needless to say, no one saw last night coming as the Angels had lost their previous four games and averaged just 3.6 rpg their last seven. While already a 10-2 game, an 11-run seventh inning was pretty preposterous. The expectation clearly is going to be for another high-scoring game here, but I'll take advantage of that & go Under.

Looking at the final score from yday and the two starting pitchers here, again, it's somewhat difficult to state the case for the Under. But clearly we don't have to worry too much about the Red Sox based on yday, even though it's true that they are the highest scoring team in all of baseball. But after being shutout Thursday, they've been held to just seven runs total the L2 games. Angels' starter Matt Shoemaker has looked better of late, a lot better in fact. He's allowed 3 ER or less in four consecutive starts and not only have all four games stayed Under, so too have each of his L6 trips to the mound where his ERA is 2.14. Incredibly, he's winless during that time (team has scored 4 runs or less in every game) despite a 45-5 KW ratio, but I still anticipate Shoemaker doing his job here as the Red Sox projected lineup for Sunday is a combined 1 for 24 lifetime against him. In two career starts vs. Boston, Shoemaker has not given up a single earned run.

As for Boston's Sean O'Sullivan, I suppose there are some legit question marks. He has a 7.84 ERA/1.839 WHIP in two starts and will be facing a lineup that just scored 21 runs. But, as I already went through, what the Angels did at the plate yday came out of absolutely nowhere. Also, Sullivan's last big league start came almost two months ago. Since that time, he's looked a lot better, albeit in Triple A Pawtucket where he was 4-0 w/ a 2.61 ERA in six starts. I think he will surprise here. 10* Under Angels/Red Sox

9* Seattle (10:10 ET): Personally, I have not been surprised at the results of this series so far. Though Baltimore came in as the hot team (7-game win streak), I've been pointing out basically all season that their schedule has been quite friendly to this point ("home heavy") and that their below .500 road record most certainly "matters." Their offense has cooled considerably in the two games here in Seattle, producing only five runs and 13 hits (2 HR's). The Mariners, meanwhile, came into the series in a pretty good "buy low" situation as they were only .500 (had lost 21 of 32) despite still owning a +39 run differential. In fact, their run differential is pretty similar to that of the 47-32 Orioles (+50). I'll look for those respective differentials to grow even closer after tonight as Seattle makes it three straight over their visitors.

Another reason I have doubts about Baltimore is the dearth of starting pitching. They simply do not have a lot of depth in the rotation or even one strong arm they can consistently rely on. Chris Tillman has the great team start record (14-3), but his ERA/WHIP aren't indicative of a pitcher that should have that kind of record. Tonight, it will be Tyler Wilson on the bump and he has a 4.89 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 12 starts. He's one of two Orioles' starters to be "in the red" when it comes to net units (-0.55) this season, even though no starter has an ERA below 3.71 or a WHIP below 1.25. Wilson allowed five runs and 10 hits his last time out and that was at home against a Rays team that has been struggling badly. I always "tip my cap" to the job skipper Buck Showalter does w/ this bullpen, but right now he's running out of arms, at least lefties, and that cost him last night.

Of course, the Mariners don't care to hear about any other team's injury woes as their own starting rotation is somewhat in shambles. Felix Hernandez is obviously the biggest name missing. But we've seen guys step up, including Wade LeBlanc last night. I'd like to see the same here from James Paxton, whose last three starts have admittedly not gone all that well. But I think a real key is that he hasn't allowed a single home run in any of his last four starts. The O's are too dependent on the long ball, in my opinion. 9* Seattle

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): There aren't a ton of great opportunities to fire on the Padres over the course of a given season, but I feel this is one such time. They beat the Yankees yday, 7-6, and the game wasn't really as close as the final score indicated as the road team scored four runs in the ninth. The Yanks did come to the West Coast off a pair of nice victories over the Rangers, but those took place at home, not the road where they are 16-22 for the year including a lousy 5-11 as a dog in the +100 to +125 price range. There's certainly not much to like about starter Ivan Nova, who checks in w/ a 9.00 ERA and 2.214 WHIP his L3 starts. I'd say to expect the home team to win by a more comfortable margin Saturday night.

Every year, it seems as if there's a select number of "hard-luck" pitchers, guys whose individual numbers indicate their team start records should be a lot better. Here in 2016, you can put San Diego's Drew Pomeranz on that list. A 7-8 TSR is grossly unfair considering a 2.76 ERA and 1.136 WHIP. Pomeranz wasn't leaving anything up to chance his last time out, however, as he delivered seven shutout innings of three-hit ball against the hapless Reds. The Yankees are certainly not the most formidable offensive club Pomeranz will have faced this year; before scoring those four runs in the ninth yday, they were on pace to score two runs or less for the fifth time in seven games. Remember that they also lose the DH spot from the order in this series because it's a NL park and traditionally one of the most "pitcher-friendly" at that.

Since May 1st, there have only been two times (in 11 starts) where Pomeranz has given up more than 3 ER. Five times he hasn't given up ANY runs and that's while going at least five innings every time and also not allowing more than three hits! The opposition is batting just .190 against him for the year (3rd best average in the N.L.) and his 10.4 K's per nine innings rank sixth. With Pomeranz on the hill, I feel more than comfortable playing the Padres in this price range as they are 4-1 this season when priced at -125 to -150 on the ML at home. Led by Wil Myers, the offense has done its job of late too, averaging 6.1 rpg the last seven contests. 8* San Diego

8* Oakland (10:05 ET): Yes, I may have lost with the A's last night, but that doesn't mean I think that they are mispriced in this series. Remember, I'd had my "finger on the pulse" of this team the L2 days w/ a win ON them (Wednesday, 7-1 over Giants) and then AGAINST them (12-6, again vs. the Giants) Thursday. I don't think that Pittsburgh having an off-day really factored into Friday's result as the A's jumped out to an early 3-0 lead after two innings that unfortunately starter Sonny Gray could not hold. Offensively, the Athletics did little after those first two innings as well. But tonight I have the home team bouncing back as the Bucs have been a shaky road team in this price range (0-3 at +150 to +175) and they have a weak starting pitcher going as well.

Oakland's offense going silent came as a surprise to me as they were facing a pitcher (Jeff Locke) that had really struggled on the road this year and they came in having scored at least six runs in seven consecutive contests (team batting average of .300). Tonight, we'll see how they fare against Chad Kuhl, who picked up a shocking win in his big league debut Sunday night as a +220 money line underdog against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. While that's an impressive note to attach to his resume, Kuhl really didn't pitch all that well as he gave up three runs in just 5 IP and also issued four walks.

The A's will be turning to Rich Hill, who missed all of June due to being on the disabled list. That's too bad because he enjoyed an outstanding May. He's on a five-game win streak, turning in a 1.33 ERA and 0.984 WHIP his last three outings. He's got a 1.76 ERA his L8 starts overall and if you think that this is just a temporary blip; think again as Hill closed 2015 on a pretty impressive roll for the Red Sox, going 2-1 w/ a 1.55 ERA in September. He relies on a curveball which to quote the pitcher himself has been "working well" this season. I don't anticipate the long layoff between starts being a factor here for the A's even though Hill figures to be on a pitch count. He did make on rehab start - in Class A Stockton - and looked good in a 66-pitch effort. Pittsburgh has been one of the bigger money-losers in all of baseball this season, on the road. 8* Oakland

8* St. Louis (2:15 ET): This will be the second straight day St. Louis gets my endorsement. They beat Milwaukee 7-1 in yday's series opener. In my analysis for that game, I went through some of the reasons why the Cardinals were only 40-38 despite having a +72 run differential that ranked 4th best in all of baseball. Obviously, that scoring margin now looks even better. To rehash from yday, the Cards have not fared well in one-run games this year, going 6-14, which is the worst win percentage (.300) in such contests in all of MLB. They also have routinely hurt themselves in the field. For example, Thursday's game vs. the Royals saw them commit three errors, increasing their MLB-leading total to 62, which in turn has led to 28 unearned runs being scored against them. Friday saw them commit two more, but thankfully it did not hurt them as Milwaukee is simply a team they should dominate, especially at home. Let's go with the home team again this afternoon.

Last year saw St. Louis pitching dominate as they led the league by wide margin in terms of runs allowed (525 in 162 games). This year has seen them allow 335 runs in just 79 games, counteracting the fact that the offense has improved to 5.2 rpg, which is 4th best in all of baseball. But, lately, we have seen the pitching improve. Yesterday, it was Jaime Garcia going eight strong innings (allowed only 4 hits). Today, we get Adam Wainwright, who up until his last start had begun to show signs of turning things around himself. Kansas City, a good home team, got to him Monday, but thankfully Milwaukee is a bad road team and Wainwright has a 2.32 career ERA against them. Four of his last nine starts vs. the Brew Crew have resulted in complete game victories.

Something I also said in yday's analysis was that it's only a matter of time before St. Louis starts to turn things around here at home. They went 55-26 at Busch Stadium last year, but are now just 16-23 here in 2016. But, again, help arrives in the form of a Milwaukee team that is just 13-24 away from home, the NL's second worst road record (Cincinnati). This season has seen the Cards outscore the Brew Crew 45-14 in seven matchups. Starter Jimmy Nelson may lead the Brewers in quality starts (8), but he is 0-5 w/ a terrible 9.51 ERA all-time vs. the Cards. 8* St. Louis

10* Toronto (1:05 ET): Yes, I'm calling for Cleveland's franchise-record 14-game win streak to come to a halt here. Really, it's the ideal situation. Yesterday's game went 19 innings and saw Trevor Bauer, originally today's scheduled started, get called into duty. Bauer wound up going five innings for the win, but obviously will no longer be available here. As of press time, we do not know who will be starting for the Indians today. Note that whomever it ends up being is irrelevant to this play. Either it will be a minor league call-up or manager Terry Francona will have to piece something together out of the bullpen. I realize that Toronto was involved in the same 19-inning game yday, but they have Marco Estrada to lean on here.

I watched the marathon game Friday afternoon and it seemed to me as if the Blue Jays almost conceded in the 19th inning. They sent Darwin Barney, that's their second baseman, to the hill and the result was what you'd expect as he gave up the GW home run to the first batter he saw (Carlos Santana). Having Estrada in their "back pocket" gives the Blue Jays a significant edge on Saturday afternoon though. While his team start record may only be 8-7 this year, Estrada has both a 2.81 ERA and 0.987 WHIP, outstanding numbers. There have been only two starts all season where he has allowed more than 3 ER. Remember that Cleveland could only manage two runs in 19 innings yday. Estrada should dominate whatever "skeleton crew" he faces today.

Meanwhile, I expect Toronto's offense to bounce back here after a disappointing start to the series. They've been held to two runs in the two games so far; the 1st time they've been held under five runs in B2B games in almost a month. After facing the likes of Carlos Carrasco and Josh Tomlin the L2 days, it's going to be a reprieve here. I realize there's an inherent danger in going against a team that's riding a 14-game win streak, but if there was a scenario that you could draw up for it to end, it would probably look something like this. Today marks just the fourth time Cleveland has been a ML underdog during the streak. 10* Toronto

8* Oakland (10:05 ET): Third day in a row I'm making a play on/against the Athletics. Wednesday, I took them as they beat San Francisco 7-1. Yesterday, I went against them and they lost 12-6, missing out on a chance to sweep their Bay Area rival. The key difference in handicapping those two games was clearly the presence of Madison Bumgarner on the mound for the Giants last night as he held the Oakland bats in relative check for 6+ innings. Obviously, Bumgarner isn't going to be pitching tonight for the Pirates, so I'm back on the A's tonight in yet another Interleague series. Interesting is the line move here (similar to Wednesday) where it appears as if it's sharp money responsbile for the home team being bet up on the money line. I'll concur w/ the move.

Pittsburgh has been one the real disappointments in the National League so far. They currently sit three games below .500 even after winning four of their last six. They had an off-day after winning in Seattle, 8-1, Wednesday. But the rest is not nearly enough to garner my endorsement for tonight. Starter Jeff Locke might be off B2B impressive outings against the Dodgers and Giants (beat Bumgarner 1-0), but he's mostly been a disaster on the road w/ a 7.36 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in eight starts. The team's record in those eight starts is a predictable 2-6.  Those two impressive starts against the Dodgers & Giants (1 ER allowed in 13 2/3 IP) both came at home. His last two road starts (at New York & Colorado) saw him allow 18 runs in just 8 2/3 IP.

I'm not entirely sure what the deal has been with Sonny Gray this year, but the Oakland ace has looked better of late. He allowed only 2 ER to both the Brewers and Angels in his last two starts and had a 10-2 KW ratio. He has a 3.23 ERA his L5 starts, but sadly has nothing to show for it. In fact, he's winless going all the way back to April 22nd. So he's due. What would help Gray's cause is some good old fashioned run support. Quietly, the A's offense has scored six or more runs in seven straight games, averaging 7.7 per game during that stretch w/ a team batting average of .300! So the support should be there. 8* Oakland

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals let me down last night (my lone loss in MLB) by dropping a third game to the Royals, this time by a score of 4-2. It is absolutely stunning to see this club have a 15-23 record at home (lost seven straight!) as they went 55-26 here in '15. Run differential (+72) still says this is a very good team; in fact that run differential ranks as the 4th best in all of baseball! Fortunately, they'll be welcoming in a much lesser opponent to Busch Stadium this weekend and that's Milwaukee, who is 13-23 on the road and off an 8-1 loss (at home) to the Dodgers yday. This is a series that the Cards HAVE to take advantage of. Remember, they just swept the Cubs (at Wrigley), so I don't think there's any reason to panic.

The Brew Crew did put up a pretty good fight in B2B series w/ the Nationals and Dodgers as they split the six home games. But, as noted above, they have struggled outside of Miller Park. They're being outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road this year and went 2-7 out on the West Coast in June (only road trip).  I don't think this line will get as high as +200, but if it does, then you can book a St. Louis win as Milwaukee as 0-6 this year as a ML dog of +200 or higher. They are also just 15-29 head to head w/ the Cardinals since the start of the 2014 season. They've lost both series to them this year, both times dropping two of three. The Cardinals four victories have come by a combined 33-4 margin! In only one of the six games has Milwaukee scored more than three runs.

Starting tonight for the Redbirds will be Jaime Garcia. He's faced the Brewers twice in 2016 and has allowed just two runs in 14 innings of work. The start that came here at home saw him go the distance w/ a one-hit shutout where he finished w/ a season-high 13 strikeouts. His 10 career wins against Milwaukee are his most versus any opponent. The Brewers counter w/ Matt Garza, who has a 4.07 ERA in 12 career starts vs. St. Louis. Johnny Peralta is 17 for 37 lifetime against him. Really, the Cards have been beating themselves this year as three errors last night ran their YTD total to a major league leading 62 (which have led to 28 unearned runs). Clean up the fielding issues and they should have no problem putting an end to this curious home losing streak of theirs. 8* St. Louis

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets badly needed a win last night and they got it w/ a surprising, come-from-behind 4-3 victory over the Cubs. The spark seemed to be a titanic home run for Yoenis Cespedes in the sixth, though the home team didn't actually take the lead until the following frame. New York came into this series having just been swept by the Nats and finished only 12-15 in the month of June. But, despite those disappointing results, the good news is they always won at least two in a row last month (meaning they never just won once and then lost again). They've also now beaten the Cubs five straight times dating back to LY's NLCS after losing nine straight regular season games to them. I like the Mets tonight.

The key for the Cubs yday was that they failed to score four runs. They are an insane 46-4 this year when reaching that plateau, but that obviously means they are also 5-23 otherwise. That's not a great sign, actually. Despite setting a historic pace in run differential (+169 through 78 games), Joe Maddon's team has definitely seemed to slow down over the last week or so, going just 4-7 its last 11 games. Three of those wins, remember, came against the hideous Reds. The club has lost each of the last four starts made by Jason Hammel, scoring only nine runs total in those games. Tonight's starter for the Cubs has never beaten the Mets and his ERA is currently at a season-high.

The Cubs will face all quality arms in this series and tonight it's Jacob DeGrom on the hill for the home team. Though deGrom is winless since April, a stretch of 10 starts, his ERA is actually a very respectable 3.13 during that time. So, he's definitely due. Last Saturday, he tossed eight scoreless innings (against Atlanta), but unfortunately did not factor into the decision as the Mets won 1-0 in 11 innings. DeGrom has made six consecutive quality starts and has allowed more than 3 ER in only one of his 13 starts overall this season. If his offense can give him the requisite amount of support here, then I see no reason why deGrom can't break his own personal streak and lead the team to its second straight victory. 10* NY Mets

10* Over Indians/Blue Jays (1:05 ET): It goes w/o saying that Cleveland is red hot right now. In fact, no team has been hotter at any point during this season that the Tribe are at this moment as they've matched a franchise-record w/ 13 straight victories. Last night saw one of their excellent starters, Danny Salazar strike out 14 Blue Jays while Jason Kipnis and Rajai Davis provided all the offense that was necessary w/ solo home runs. Toronto finished the game w/ only three hits. But while last night marked a low-scoring affair, we certainly know what both of these offenses are capable of doing. Toronto has scored 10 or more runs in seven games since June 11th. Cleveland has scored 80 runs during their win streak (6.2 rpg). Both clubs are averaging more than six runs per game over the last week. I like the Over this afternoon.

It's not been a good season for Jays starter Marcus Stroman. He's allowed 4+ ER in five of his last six starts and now has an ERA/WHIP of 5.33/1.421 for the season. Those numbers are among the worst of all qualified starters. After being rocked in Baltimore on 6.18, giving up seven runs and 10 hits in just 3 2/3 IP, he allowed four runs in 5 IP in Chicago Sunday and didn't help himself by walking four batters. Overall, the right-hander has now given up 38 earned runs in his last eight starts. He has an 8.44 ERA his last six. Prior to that last outing in Chicago, the Over had cashed in five consecutive Stroman starts. All five of those games saw at least 10 total runs scored. An Indians lineup that has scored six or more runs eight times during the 13-game win streak should get to him.

Now Cleveland pitching has been lights out, today's starter Josh Tomlin certainly included. But Tomlin has given up seven runs in his last two starts and struggled in his career vs. the Blue Jays. Twice he's toed the rubber here at Rogers Centre and his ERA is 5.56. Toronto does average 5.3 rpg when facing a right-handed starter.  Day games have seen them average 5.2 rpg. One would have to go all the way back to June 6-7 to find the last time the Blue Jays were held under five runs in B2B games. 10* Over Indians/Blue Jays

8* San Francisco (10:05 ET): The sign of a good handicapper is a willingness not to fall into the trap of being intractable. What works one day, week, month or season may not work the next. Playing off that thought, after winning w/ the A's (7-1!) last night, I'm on the Giants Thursday. Sweeping a four-game series is hard to do, so the notion that a bottom-rung team like Oakland could pull off the feat against one of the top teams in all of baseball seems a little far-fetched. Of course, a big reason I like San Francisco in this spot is that they have Madison Bumgarner on the hill. Note that despite this game being contested in an AL park (Oakland), Giants skipper Bruce Bochy is forsaking the DH and will allow Bumgarner (9 HR's in 183 AB's L3 seasons) to bat!

Over the course of a given season, most pitchers will have at least a two-start stretch where they go winless. But Bumgarner is not "most" pitchers. It's been a couple of "hard luck" losses for the big ol' lefty, first a 1-0 decision at Pittsburgh, then a 3-2 decision vs. Philadelphia. Prior to those results, the Giants had won 10 straight times when Bumgarner toed the rubber. His numbers remain excellent. Over his L7 starts, he has a 1.45 ERA and 0.825 WHIP. There have been only two starts all season where he's allowed more than 3 ER, the last one coming all the way back on May 6th. Obviously, hitting won't bother him as he's used to having to come up to the plate. In his career, Bumgarner has pretty much dominated the A's, going 8-4 w/ a 1.99 ERA. Last year, he held them to just one run and five hits over 7 IP.

The idea that Oakland could actually sweep this series is pretty shocking. They have been one of the AL's worst teams, basically all season and still have a -46 run differential even after the three consecutive victories. The Giants, who came into this series w/ more wins than the Cubs, really helped their Bay Area rival out last night by committing three errors. Still, a 25-15 road record from SF should be respected. Unlike last night, the pitching advantage is quite large here for the G-Men as the A's go w/ Dillon Overton, who in his first career start gave up three home runs. The Giants are 7-1 this year as ML road favorites in the -150 to -175 range. 8* San Francisco

8* St. Louis (7:15 ET): The Cardinals have dropped two of the three games so far in this series, including a 3-2 extra inning loss last night here at home. Sadly, the one game they did win was Tuesday (8-4) in Kansas City when I elected to go against them. But I think they'll be "paying me back" tonight in the series finale w/ a win. Note that while the Royals have the better WL record (41-36 vs. 40-37), the Cards have the vastly superior run differential (+74 vs. -14), which I firmly believe is a better predictor of future success. Therefore, I look for the Redbirds to exact revenge for last night and earn themselves a split of this four-game set.

Last night's game was decided on a tough play for the home team. Alcides Escobar's blooper bounced just inside the right-field line, allowing the GW run to score. Cardinals RF Stephen Piscotty (who had just tied the game in the bottom of the 10th w/ a HR), thinking the ball would land in foul territory, didn't want to catch it as there was a runner on third who could have still tagged up and scored. Just a bad break for St. Louis, who is now a stunning 15-22 at Busch Stadium after going 55-26 here in 2015. Most frustrating of all about this year's home record is that they are actually averaging 4.4 rpg, same as their opponents. Given the YTD run differential and the record, one could make the case that the Cards have been the unluckiest team in baseball so far. But I believe we're going to start to see that home record inch closer to .500.  Don't forget; the Royals are still only 14-25 on the road this season, which is one of the worst marks in either league.

Offensively, St. Louis is third in the league in runs scored, trailing only the Red Sox and Cubs. I'm going to go ahead and project a big night at the plate against embattled Royals starter Chris Young, who comes in w/ a 7.07 ERA and 1.611 WHIP. On the road, things have gone very poorly for Young. He's winless (five starts) w/ a 9.70 ERA and 1.828 WHIP. His last time out (at home) saw Young give up seven runs in just 2 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, KC averages only 3.2 rpg away from home, which means Mike Leake should be in line for a strong night on the bump for St. Louis. 8* St. Louis

    

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET):  Through 79 games, the White Sox are a "dead even" 39-39. Needless to say, the first 39 games went a lot better than the last 39. This team once stood at 24-12 overall and was in first place in the American League Central, looking poised to be a playoff contender.  But around the middle of May, the bottom dropped out and they've since lost 27 of 42 games. Now that being said, they are starting to show signs of turning things around. Not only did they beat Minnesota yday, but they've won six of nine overall dating back to a strong showing at Fenway Park vs. the Red Sox. With the offense starting to pick up, look for Carlos Rodon to lead the Sox to another victory Thursday afternoon.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is having a terrible season. They have the worst record in all of baseball (25-52) and have been outscored by an AL-worst 111 runs over the course of the season.  That's more than double the second worst run differential (Angles' -49) in the Junior Circuit.  Really, their 2016 fate was sealed after an early season sweep courtesy of Chicago, which at the time left the Twins at 0-9. They've yet to really recover. Now 1-7 head to head vs. the White Sox this year, there's little reason to like them in this spot given a horrific 12-39 record off a loss. They are also 10-27 on the road. They actually trailed 9-1 at one point Wednesday. Winning a series on the road is something this club rarely does. In fact, it's happened just twice all year. Keep in mind the White Sox have outscored the Twins 39-19 in the eight games played this year.

Though winless over his last five starts overall, Rodon has still pitched well. He's allowed 2 ER or less in four of those starts and the team did win his last time out, beating Toronto 3-2. There, Rodon allowed just two runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings. Here, he'll be facing a lineup which ranks near the bottom of baseball in most key categories (27th in runs scored). Back in April, Rodon tossed six scoreless innings in Minnesota. He will be opposed tonight by Tommy Milone, who is winless on the road (three starts). Milone's WHIP has gone up over his L3 starts (1.845) after he allowed eight baserunners in just 3 2/3 IP his last time out.  8* Chi White Sox

10* Oakland (10:05 ET):  After 24 runs and 30 hits (between the two teams), the A's emerged as pretty shocking victors last night in San Francisco (closed +130 on the ML). It was a 13-11 final w/ Jake Smolinski's three-run, pinch-hit HR winding up being the difference. (Giants did score two runs of their own in the bottom of the ninth). Oakland scored 12 of its runs in the final four innings, eight of those coming in the eighth and ninth. Twice they overcame a three-run deficit because they actually allowed four runs in the bottom of the sixth after scoring four of their own in top half of that frame. I imagine that "the world" will be on the Giants to bounce back here, but w/ the scene shifting across the bay, I'm on the A's!

Oakland didn't just win last night, they won Monday (8-3) as well. Taking both games in San Francisco is a pretty impressive feat considering the Giants came into this series owning a 24-14 home record and were tied for the most wins in all of baseball. But in terms of run differential, this team is actually only fourth in the National League and way behind the Cubs (also trail Washington and St. Louis). They've certainly benefited from a 19-9 record in one-run games (that's the most one-run victories in all of baseball. I have real concerns about the rotation depth here and that includes tonight's starter Jake Peavy, who comes in sporting a 6.25 ERA and 1.333 WHIP on the road. Peavy has been better of late, but I wouldn't necessarily trust him moving forward.

I fully understand that Oakland's Sean Manaea isn't exactly in the middle of the Cy Young discussion, but his L3 home starts have all been pretty good. Back on June 13th, he lasted only 4 1/3 innings, but allowed only two runs and four hits and most importantly the team got a big 14-5 win over a Texas team that's been just as hot as this San Francisco one is now. The reason for the short stint is that Manaea strained his forearm and ended up going to the DL. This will be his first start since. A big key here is that "sharp money" has shown up on the home team here, leading to a big line move despite the majority of actual bets being on the road team. 10* Oakland