10* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): In the AL East, the Yankees are 3.5 games out of first place, due in no small part to a 1-6 head to head record with the first place Rays. A recent seven-game losing streak did them no favors. But it was a successful weekend for the team wearing pinstripes as they won Saturday, then swept a doubleheader on Sunday. After being swept here at Yankee Stadium two weeks ago, tonight begins their chance at revenge with Tampa Bay and I like the Yanks to get the cash in this series opener.

The Rays have started 23-11, which includes a perfect 6-0 record when they had the previous day off. That situation does not exist here as they were in Miami Sunday, where they won 12-7. That gave them a series sweep and was their fifth straight win overall. They are 19-4 L23 games. Hot as they are, the sweep that occurred here at Yankee Stadium two weeks ago was the Rays’ first since 2014. While they held NY to just 10 runs in the three games, the Yankees are averaging 5.9 rpg at home this season, tied for 2nd most in MLB. 

Tampa Bay’s offense has been getting it done on the road all season, including 4 HR’s yday. But tonight they face Gerritt Cole, who is 20-1 his L21 decisions. Cole has not factored into the decision any of the six times he’s faced TB in his career, two of those starts coming this year, but has a 3.61 ERA against them. Overall, Cole has a 5-2 TSR this year with a 0.95 WHIP. He’ll be opposed by Tyler Glasnow, who has a 4-2 TSR, but a 5.14 ERA and 1.357 WHIP. Those numbers get higher on the road. This’ll be one of the best spots to take the Yankees all season. 10* NY Yankees

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies lost Sunday night, 12-10 to the Braves, but I was rather impressed with the way they fought back from an early 10-0 hole. The Braves scored all 10 of those runs in the 2nd inning, effectively ending the game. But Philadelphia got back within one run heading into the 9th. While ultimately unsuccessful, that’s a rally the likes of which you’re not going to see very often. Going into Sunday, Philly had won five in a row. Three of those wins were against the first place Braves. The other two were at the expense of the team they’ll face Monday, that being Washington. 

The defending World Series Champs are not having a good start to 2020 as they are 12-19 and in last place in the NL East. Over the weekend, they dropped two games to the lowly Red Sox, a team with the second worst run differential in all of MLB. It was the Red Sox first series win in three weeks. The Nationals’ scoring average on the road this season remains very high (6.4 per game going into yday), but we should start to see that number come down. With Sunday’s loss, the Nats are a shocking 4-17 this season in game vs. RH starters. 

A righty will start tonight for the Phillies. It’ll be Spencer Howard, who is off his best outing to date, 11 days ago in Toronto. Howard will face Erick Fedde, who will be making his 2nd straight start against the Phillies. The last one didn’t go too well as Fedde allowed four runs in five innings and the Nats lost 8-3. Fedde has allowed a HR in all three of his 2020 starts. While so much of the country saw Philly fall into a 10-0 hole last night (game was on ESPN) and thus won’t want to take them here, I know they are a perfect 7-0 this season when priced as a home favorite of -125 to -175. 8* Philadelphia

10* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): The Cubs and Reds split a doubleheader on Saturday. The Cubs won Game 1 3-0 while the Reds took Game 2 6-5. Cincy very nearly blew that second game as they led 4-1 before giving away the lead. Thankfully, they were able to win with a pair of runs in the final at-bat. Now they go for their first series win at home all season, if you can believe that. This is a team that entered the 2020 season with high hopes (certainly were expected to make playoffs in an 8-team format). Take them Sunday. 

Chicago leads the NL Central with a 19-14 record, but they’re a little “fraudulent” when you consider their run differential is only +4. That’s still the division’s best (every other team has been outscored), but consider every other first place team in the league has a run differential of at least +21. So this division is very much still up for grabs with less than half the regular season to go. That’s good news for the Reds, who clearly have yet to hit their stride. A plus for the home team is that Joey Votto, who had been mired in an 0 for 18 slump, went 3 for 6 in yesterday’s doubleheader. He’s 6 for 15 lifetime against Tyler Chatwood, who starts for the Cubs on Sunday. 

Chatwood has lasted less than four innings combined his last two starts, both of which came on the road. He gave up eight runs and 11 hits to Kansas City (lasted only 2 ⅓) and then walked more batters (5) than he retired (4) his last time out, which was against Detroit. Those are two bad teams to struggle against. The Reds go with Luis Castillo, who somehow has a 1-5 TSR despite only one bad start. He’s yet to factor into a single decision, but has a 1.50 ERA at home. Time for a win! 10* Cincinnati

10* Over Dodgers/Rangers (7:05 ET): One of the more surprising results of this MLB season took place last night as lowly Texas beat the Dodgers 6-2. This weekend series is a matchup of the teams with the best (+82) and second worst (-50) run differentials in the sport. (You should know who is who!). Making last night’s result all the more shocking is that LA came into Friday having won 13 of its last 15 games. They swept a doubleheader Thursday, winning both of those games in shutout fashion. 

But the Rangers were able to score six runs against the Dodgers last night, winning as +200 underdogs on the money line. Shockingly, I project them to do well at the plate again tonight. That’s because they are facing the struggling Ross Stripling, who has a 7.71 ERA and 2.057 WHIP his L3 starts. In those three starts, Stripling has given up seven home runs and allowed 6 or more runs twice. Overall, he’s allowed 15 runs in just 11 ⅔ IP. The Over has hit the L2 times he’s pitched, also thanks in large part to the Dodgers scoring 11 runs of their own in both games.

The Dodgers lead all of baseball in runs scored. The only team within 20 runs of them is the division rival Padres. Their games average 8.8 runs while Texas is at 9.0. So I love the O/U line being under the key number of 9.0 here. Lance Lynn is starting for the Rangers and while he’s been “lights out” in 2020 (2 ER or less in all 7 starts), he has yet to face a lineup like the Dodgers have. Lynn also has given up three home runs in his past two starts. All we need is a 5-4 game to hit the Over tonight and a result such as that seems quite likely. The Over is 6-2 for Texas after they allow 2 runs or less the previous game. 10* Over Dodgers/Rangers

6* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): The Brewers got swept last weekend at PNC Park. That should never happen. The Pirates have the fewest number of wins in all of baseball (9) and that number goes down to 6 if you take away what happened last weekend against the Brew Crew. Only two teams - the Red Sox and Rangers - have worse run differentials than the Pirates. Milwaukee (-34) isn’t that great in that department either. However, their playoff odds remain above 60% while Pittsburgh’s are basically nil (0.5%). That should tell you something right there. The Brewers are better and should exact some revenge Friday night. 

Both teams played doubleheaders on Thursday. But that’s where the similarities end. Pittsburgh swept their doubleheader in St. Louis, winning 4-3 and 2-0, while Milwaukee got swept by Cincinnati (lost 6-1 and 6-0). It was Pittsburgh’s first shutout of the season while just the second time Milwaukee had been shut out. Note off their previous shutout loss (Opening Day), they bounced back the next game to win 8-3. They are 13-8 after being shutout the L3 years. Pittsburgh is just 5-19 this season when you take away yday’s results and last weekend’s series. 

The Pirates are also 8-26 the L34 times as a road underdog of +125 to +175 on the money line. That includes an 0 for 6 this season. Derek Holland got his first win of 2020 at the Brewers’ expense last weekend, but the Pirates starter for tonight had been awful before that, most notably in a start vs. Detroit where he allowed FIVE home runs. Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes had seven strikeouts when he faced the Pirates last weekend, but those were not enough in a game the Brewers lost 5-4. Burnes has yet to record a decision despite a 3.29 ERA. That changes w/ a win tonight. 6* Milwaukee

8* Run Line Kansas City (8:10 ET): Please note that this is run line play only where I’m taking the Royals +1.5. Kansas City has some revenge here as early in the season they were swept by the White Sox. They also have what looks to be a decided edge on the mound with Danny Duffy going against Reynaldo Lopez. Since the White Sox have been surging of late (won 9 of last 10 games), I’m a little “gun-shy” when it comes to picking the Royals to win “outright” today. But they won’t do any worse than a one-run loss. 

Duffy now has a 3-3 TSR in 2020 with all of those wins coming in the L3 starts. Incredibly, all three wins came against division-leading Minnesota where Duffy was a ML dog of +135, +175 and +135! In those L3 starts, Duffy has a 3.86 ERA and 1.071 WHIP, but his numbers weren’t much different in his first three starts, all of which the Royals lost. Interesting to note the Royals failed to score in two of those three losses while the other was by one run. The Royals’ last game was also a one-run loss (6-5 to St. Louis) as the bullpen blew a 9th inning lead for the first time in 10 opportunities. 

Lopez has only started two games for the White Sox and he hasn’t lasted long in either. The first one saw him get only two outs as he allowed four runs. The second was a little better as he only allowed two runs on one hit (not a typo!), but he only lasted 3 ⅓. I think this is a really cheap price to get the additional +1.5 with the underdog in a revenge spot. 8* Kansas City +1.5

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D’backs were set to be a play for us on Monday, but starter Merrill Kelly was a late scratch, rendering it “no action.” In hindsight, that may have been a lucky break as they lost 3-2. Last night was another one-run loss (5-4) as Arizona has now dropped seven in a row to fall into last place in the NL West. But with playoff odds still hovering above 50% percent, you have to think a turnaround is imminent. I think that turnaround occurs tonight.

It’s a pretty ugly starting pitching matchup with the Rockies going with Jon Gray and the D’backs going with Robbie Ray. Gray has a 9.64 ERA and 1.786 WHIP his L3 starts while Ray has a 7.24 ERA and 2.048 WHIP his L3. There is definitely potential for tonight to turn into a “slugfest,” but note Colorado is only averaging 3.6 rpg outside of Coors Field. They’ve scored a total of 15 runs in the L5 games. They’d lost seven in a row coming into this series. 

Arizona has scored just 12 runs during the entirety of their seven-game losing streak. They desperately need to get something going at the plate. Last night, they hit two home runs and left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. Gray’s two road starts have gone poorly as he has more walks than strikeouts in just 8 ⅓ IP. He also allowed eight runs when he faced Arizona at home on 8.10. Ray allowed six runs in that same game, but Arizona still won 12-8. Look for Ray to get the better of Gray yet again as Colorado has lost five straight times after scoring 5+ runs their previous game. 10* Arizona

10* Under Orioles/Rays (6:40 ET): Tampa Bay is out for revenge in this series as they were shockingly swept up in Baltimore earlier this month. The Orioles are a lot more competitive this year as they are 14-14 and a MLB-best +8.9 units. Still, TB is likely to gain some measure of revenge this week considering they are 19-8 excluding that first series with Baltimore and in first place in the AL East. This series is also at Tropicana Field. But the odds are too rich for my blood here as thus I’ll be playing the Under instead. 

None of the three games in Baltimore had more than nine total runs scored. Both teams come in averaging 5.0 rpg but I don’t think that’s sustainable for either club. While Rays’ road games are averaging 11.0 total runs, home games are averaging just 8.2. The thought is that with them so heavily favored tonight, they’ll likely enter the ninth with the lead and hopefully we can avoid playing the bottom half altogether. Sometimes avoiding those final three outs can be the difference between a game going Over or Under.

Tyler Glasnow starts here for the Rays. He has not been great thus far, but he is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in four career starts vs. Baltimore. The O’s go with Tommy Milone, who is off a quality start against Toronto. When Milone faced the Rays earlier this season, he held them to one run in five innings. He’s also thrown six scoreless innings against Washington. 10* Under Orioles/Rays

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): Colorado got off to a surprising start, but that’s gone sideways in a hurry thanks to back to back series against Houston and the Dodgers. They’ve lost seven in a row, not to mention 10 of their last 11, after taking an 11-3 “L” in LA on Sunday. But the Rockies should expect no sympathy here from the D’backs, who were on the receiving end of a surprising sweep by the Giants over the weekend. These teams met at Coors Field earlier in the year and Arizona won 2 of 3. I like them here.

Arizona will enter this series on a 5-game losing streak, so something is going to have to give. What’s weird about the D’backs recent slide is that it was immediately preceded by a 6-game win streak that included multiple wins over the A’s. Hoping to lead a turnaround tonight is starter Merrill Kelly, who has pitched well this season. Kelly has a 2.58 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in five starts. The last one was definitely the worst, but before that it had been four quality outings.

Kelly will also need the Arizona offense to pick up the pace as it has scored just six runs total during the five-game losing streak. Here they’ll be facing a starter in Ryan Castellani who just gave up five runs his last time out. Colorado came into yesterday’s game averaging just 3.6 runs per game while batting under .200 on the road. Those numbers both went down. This is the D’backs chance to breakthrough. 10* Arizona

10* Under Phillies/Braves (7:08 ET): Both games in this series have gone Over and Atlanta has gone Over in four straight heading into Sunday night. After crushing the Phillies 11-2 in the series opener, it was a 6-5 win for the Braves last night as they rallied late against what could be generously called an “ineffective” Phillies bullpen. All six runs were scored in the last three innings with the final one coming in walk-off fashion. I look for a slightly lower-scoring game tonight as you should play the Under. 

Two of Atlanta’s runs last night were scored off an error and that’s what began their rally. The Phillies' bullpen has been truly awful in 2020 but those two runs weren’t their fault. I look for Zach Eflin to put them in a good position tonight despite his less than stellar numbers on the year. One positive is Eflin has a 23-5 KW ratio. Again, Atlanta was held w/o a run for the first six innings last night.

Josh Tomlin will start tonight for the Braves. He allowed just two runs in four innings in his 2020 starting debut Tuesday (against Washington). Tomlin has also worked out of the bullpen this year where he gave up just two runs in 11+ IP. This will be his first career start vs. the Phillies. The Under is 12-5 in the Braves’ last 17  game 3 of a series. I like the number here as they are also 19-7 Under the L26 home games w/ a total set at 9.0 to 10.5. 10* Under Phillies/Braves

10* Seattle (9:10 ET): You’re unlikely get many recommendations on Seattle from me this season, especially at the 10* level. But they are in a good position tonight, off a win and facing the slumping Rangers. Texas has now dropped six in a row after the 7-4 loss on Friday and it’s tough to find much to like about them tonight with the struggling Jordan Lyles on the bump. Seattle goes with Justus Sheffield, who has been one of their more effective starters of late as it’s been back to back quality outings from him. 

During the six-game losing streak, the Rangers have been outscored 51-28 and allowed at least six runs in every game. The bullpen is bad and with Lyles starting, the trend figures to continue. Lyles has an 8.35 ERA and 1.855 WHIP in his four starts. The last one saw him get rocked for seven runs in four innings by the Padres. While Seattle isn’t San Diego, they have scored six or more runs in three of their last five games. So they’re capable of another big night at the plate. 

It’s pretty telling that the Mariners are favored on the money line here. That’s only happened two times previously this season, both against Colorado here at home. While the M’s lost both of those games, the Rockies are a better team than the Rangers. Sheffield has allowed just 1 ER his L2 starts, which have spanned 12 innings. He’s also not allowed a single HR this season. In the two series before this, Seattle had to face the Astros and Dodgers, so it’s no surprise they’d lost six of seven going into yday. Much better matchup here. 10* Seattle

10* Over Tigers/Indians (7:10 ET): Cleveland posted its MLB-leading 5th shutout yday in a 2-0 win over Pittsburgh. That was the Tribe’s second straight sweep as they’ve won six in a row to surge near the top of the American League standings. Before sweeping the Pirates, they swept the Tigers and that’s who they’ll face again this weekend. While Cleveland has baseball’s best Under mark (18-7) due to them allowing just a MLB-low 2.64 rpg, their offense came alive in last week’s series at Detroit, scoring 21 runs in three games. I like this game to go Over the total. 

Cleveland’s offense had been showing signs of life before yesterday. They’d scored six or more runs in four of their previous five ballgames. Two of their best offensive efforts came last weekend against the Tigers when they scored 10 and 8 runs respectively. I have no doubt they’ll put plenty of runs on the board tonight as they face Michael Fulmer again. Fulmer has a 7.55 ERA and 2.038 WHIP in his three starts. He lasted just 2 ⅔ last weekend vs. the Indians and allowed a pair of home runs. He’s yet to go more than three innings this year and, needless to say, the Tigers’ bullpen has not been good either. 

Detroit has allowed 7 or more runs in seven of its last nine games. If Cleveland is unable to send this one Over on its own, then we’ll obviously need at least a few runs from the Tigers. They’re in luck in that they’re facing Adam Plutko tonight, perhaps the weakest member of the Indians’ rotation. When he faced off with Fulmer last weekend, Plutko also lasted just 2 ⅔ innings.  He allowed three runs. Cleveland should continue its mastery of Detroit (20 straight wins!) here, albeit in higher-scoring fashion than usual. 10* Over Tigers/Indians

10* Cincinnati (8:15 ET): It has been a tumultuous last week or so for the Reds. Their season was briefly paused due to COVID-19 concerns and then yesterday, long-time play by play announcer Thom Brennaman said something he shouldn’t have. Wednesday marked the team’s return to the field after a four-day break and they split a doubleheader with the Royals with each team winning in shutout fashion. I’ve been pretty disappointed with the Reds so far (touted as a playoff contender) as they are just 10-12. But Sonny Gray is starting Thursday’s opener in St. Louis and like Cincy to come through here. 

Gray is 4-1 in his five starts with a 2.05 ERA and 0.913 WHIP. He’s allowed 1 ER in four of the five starts, the only “bad” one coming in Milwaukee. His KW ratio is 45-9. While the Reds haven’t been able to string together many victories so far in 2020, they are 7-3 their L10 games as a favorite including 4-1 when on the road. I think it “speaks volumes” that they are favored to win here in St. Louis and that’s largely owed to Gray. 

St. Louis has a much more serious COVID-19 outbreak in its clubhouse and thus has played only 13 games to this point. They’re just 6-7 as they too split a doubleheader yday. It was against the Cubs, who had previously beaten them each of the last two days. Adam Wainwright will start opposite Gray and while he’s got similar numbers, it’s been only two starts and one of them was against Pittsburgh. It’s time for the Reds to “turn it on” and start playing up to their potential. 10* Cincinnati

9* Colorado (3:10 ET): This is a radical departure from the last two days where I backed Houston both times. The win on Tuesday was low-scoring in nature (2-1) and required extra innings. As I predicted it would, the Astros offense picked up yesterday (as the series moved to Coors Field) in a 13-6 rout (led 13-3 heading into the ninth).Houston has now won seven straight as they’ve clearly moved past that slow start to the season. 

Colorado is looking to avoid a sweep today (first two games in Houston, yday’s game here at Coors). The big reason I am switching courses here as that Rockies starter German Marquez knows how to pitch here at Coors Field, which is something that few can say. Quite frankly, Marquez is capable of pitching well ANYWHERE as evident by his 2.25 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in five starts this season. But it’s his ability to overcome the thin air of his home park that sets him apart. The Rockies have won 10 of Marquez’s last 15 Coors starts. 

In four of the Astros’ seven straight wins, they have scored three runs or fewer. It was predictable that they’d pick up their production with the series moving here, but at the same time the pitching will suffer. Rookie Cristian Javier has a 0.822 WHIP on the year, but something to note is that he allowed 3 HRs and 5 runs total his last time starting on the road. Houston’s offense will suffer now that Yordan Alvarez is done (for the year!) and Alex Bregman left yday’s game. 9* Colorado

10* Houston (8:40 ET): It was close (2-1 in 11 innings), but the Astros came through for me yesterday. As was gone over in the analysis, there was no need to worry about the team’s pitching as it has now allowed two runs or less in six straight games, all of those wins. The offense has been a bit “spotty” but it’s a confidence builder that the last four wins have seen the Astros score three runs or less. My guess is that the offense gets it going tonight as the series with the Rockies now shifts to the thin air of Denver. 

At the same time, the strong pitching we’ve seen from Houston should continue tonight. Framber Valdez was an easy winner when I took him in his last start. He pitched six innings and allowed just one run on four hits as the Astros crushed the Mariners 11-1. That was the team’s one big offensive game during the win streak. Given that the Rockies are allowing their “usual” average of 6.0 runs per game here at Coors this season, Valdez is likely to get plenty of run support once again. He’s allowed only six runs in 17 ⅓ thus far, just four of those runs being earned. 

Colorado counters with Ryan Castellani as they look to snap a seven-game losing streak to the Astros. Castellani has faced two weaker AL West teams so far, those being Texas and Seattle, and he did pretty well. Though he didn’t go more than 4 ⅔ in either outing. That’s a problem here considering how poor the Rockies’ bullpen has been in home games. It’s ERA is 7.23 in 13 games as they are giving up 3.1 runs in an average of about 3 ⅓ innings. Big mismatch here as indicated by the oddsmakers. 10* Houston

6* Cleveland (7:05 ET): This series is tailor-made for the Indians to continue their fine stretch of pitching as they face the last place Pirates. While Cleveland is “only” 13-9 on the year, they have given up the fewest number of runs in all of baseball (62) or an average of just 2.8 per game. They are fresh (had Monday off) after a weekend sweep of another last place team, the Tigers, whom they are now 21-1 against since the start of last year. Despite playing four fewer games than Cleveland so far, Pittsburgh has allowed 46 more runs. 

It has not been a good start to the season for the Pirates as they are 4-14, which is the worst record in all of MLB right now. They are allowing 6.0 rpg, more than double what Cleveland allows. The bullpen has been horrendous with a 7.13 ERA and 1.73 WHIP here at PNC Park and tonight’s starter (JT Brubaker) allowed three runs in three innings in his only start. We know Cleveland’s pitching is good, but this could also be the series where their offense gets going. They did score 21 runs in three games vs. the Tigers. 

Carlos Carrasco starts for the Tribe tonight. After going 6 innings in each of his first three starts, he had his worst outing so far against the Cubs last Wednesday. But he should bounce back here facing a lineup that has produced only one run in two of its last three games. Note that Cleveland is a perfect 10-0 this year when scoring 3+ runs. Pittsburgh hasn’t played since Friday due to the COVID-19 concerns with Cincinnati. Their hitters could be rusty and that’s not good when facing this opponent. 6* Cleveland

6* Houston (3:10 ET): These seem to be two teams trending in very different directions right now. Houston has won five straight while giving up just six runs! Meanwhile, Colorado has lost four of its last five. Yesterday’s series opener saw the Astros prevail 2-1 behind rookie Brandon Bielak, who allowed just one run on one hit through six innings. That the ‘Stros have been able to win three in a row while scoring three runs or fewer in four of the games is an obvious testament to their pitching. Tonight Zack Greinke is on the hill. 

Greinke got his 1st win of the season his last time out with 6 ⅓ solid innings against the Giants where he allowed just one run. That started the team’s (now) five-game run. Greinke had pitched well before that as well. In fact, he threw six shutout innings against Oakland on 8/7 and has a 1.50 ERA/0.944 WHIP his L3 starts overall. I give Greinke the clear edge over Antonio Senzatela in tonight’s pitching matchup as the latter just allowed 5 ER in his last start. That’s more than Greinke has allowed his L3 starts combined. 

Houston has really dominated Colorado the last few years, going 7-2 head to head and 5-0 since the start of last season. I think the way these teams started their respective seasons was a “mirage” as you had to figure it was only a matter of time before the Astros turned things around while the Rockies certainly aren’t going to be able to keep pace with the Dodgers. As you can tell, oddsmakers aren’t fooled here and neither am I. 6* Houston

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): The Braves are three games over .500 and tied with Miami (!) for 1st place in the National League East. Keep in mind they have played eight more games than the Marlins. Perhaps an even bigger surprise within the division is Washington being three games below .500 at this point as the reigning World Series champs are struggling. Given the pitching matchup on tap for today, this hardly looks like the time that the team near the bottom of the standings (Nationals) will topple the one near the top (Braves). 

Atlanta just took two of three from Miami over the weekend, so they have to be feeling pretty good about themselves entering this series. That they were able to take two of three down in Miami while scoring only eight runs the entire series speaks to the pitching. Speaking of which, Touki Toussant gets the starting nod Monday. He’s got a solid WHIP (1.022) so far and has won both starts at home where the Braves are 7-2 overall this year. While he didn’t pitch well his last time out, that was in Yankee Stadium. 

Meanwhile, it’s been tough times so far for Washington’s Anibal Sanchez, who has lost all three starts and has a 9.69 ERA & 2.154 WHIP. He’s given up 14 ER in only 13 IP and allowed 5 HR’s. He’s allowed at least 4 ER in every start. Injuries are definitely a concern for both clubs right now with Acuna among those out for the Braves while Castro is out for the Nationals. Look for Braves’ pitching to be the difference in this one as they’ve also got the superior bullpen numbers right now. 10* Atlanta

10* Under Red Sox/Yankees (7:10 ET): The Red Sox have given up a total of 38 runs the last three games, including 21 in the two versus the Yankees. This is a very bad baseball team right now as the Sox have lost six straight to fall to 6-15 on the year, which has them in last place in the AL East. Their run differential is -40. That’s second worst in all of baseball (Seattle). Meanwhile, things are going quite well for the Yankees so far as they are 14-6 and lead the division. Their run differential (+33) is tied for 2nd best in all of MLB. 

With the last two days being so high scoring, it’s not a surprise that we’ve got a high total to work with on Sunday Night Baseball. Also, the Over is 5-0-1 during Boston’s losing streak as they’ve allowed eight or more runs in all of those games. The good news for this game (if you’re Boston) is that the Yankees are going to be without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and D.J. LeMahieu. While they’ve been sans the first two all series, LeMahieu is the one leading all AL hitters with a .411 average. He sprained his thumb last night. 

Chris Mazza will be the 11th different starter used by the Red Sox already this season, which should tell you all you need to know about the state of this rotation. Back on August 1st, Mazza did throw a couple scoreless innings of relief against the Yankees. So there’s that. Yankees’ starter J.A. Happ is 11-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 24 career starts vs. Boston, so he should pitch well against the worst Red Sox team in many years. Look for this game to defy recent trends. 10* Under Red Sox/Yankees

8* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): The Dodgers, who I currently have rated as the top team in MLB, go for the sweep Sunday against the cross-town rival Angels. They’ve won the first two games 7-4 and 6-5, the latter being last night’s extra inning affair. While it’s now a season-high four straight wins for Dodger Blue, this team has really been dominating opponents all season long. They have a +55 run differential, which is by far and away better than any other team. 

Meanwhile, the Angels are now 7-14 and have dropped three in a row. That has to be really frustrating for a team whose week began with a couple of wins over the previously red-hot A’s. But those are their only two wins in the L8 games. Having Julio Teheran on the bump vs. a team like the Dodgers puts the Halos at a massive disadvantage. Teheran has yet to go three innings in a start this year. He’s lasted a total of just 4 ⅔ in his two outings while giving up seven runs. 

The Dodgers turn to Dustin May, who is coming off B2B quality starts, both vs. the Padres. May has a 2.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in four starts and has allowed 2 ER or less in all of them. The Angels have never faced him, which is another disadvantage. Teheran has faced the Dodgers eight times previous to this and he’s 0-6 with a 5.35 ERA. Teheran’s awful start can probably be traced to the fact he reported to summer camp late due to testing positive for COVID-19. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): St. Louis has played only seven games due to a COVID outbreak. Yesterday was their return to the diamond and they made it count, sweeping a doubleheader by scores of 6-3 and 5-1 (both games only seven innings). Look for Chicago to be motivated for revenge today. While home field advantage obviously is a lot different this season, the fact that the White Sox are just 2-8 at Guaranteed Rate Field is perplexing. This was supposed to be a “breakout” team in 2020. 

Yesterday’s sweep dropped the White Sox to 10-11 on the season. They had just won two straight in Detroit. Having Dallas Keuchel on the mound for this afternoon’s game would seem to put them at an advantage. Keuchel has a 3.04 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in four starts. Though the White Sox have lost the last two, those were by scores of 1-0 and 5-1 with Keuchel only allowing 4 runs in 13 total innings. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start. Count on a quality outing here.

Even though doubleheader games are just seven innings apiece, don’t think for a second that this isn’t a tough return for the Cardinals, who were off for 17 days. They’ll now have to play eight games in five days. That’s after having 10 players on the infected list. Dakota Hudson goes Sunday and his only prior start of 2020 saw him allow four runs and seven hits in just 4 ⅓ IP with 2 HR allowed.  10* Chi White Sox

7* Washington (7:35 ET): Yesterday was a day of highs and lows for the Nationals. Lows in the sense that they lost a game that had been suspended on Sunday. Then, once the second game began, they quickly lost Stephen Strasburg and Starlin Castro to injuries. But the “high” came in the form of a 15-3 win over the Orioles, snapping their six-game win streak. Even with the injuries and inferior record, the Nats are still the better team here as you can tell by how the oddmakers are pricing them. 

Baltimore lost 108 and 115 games each of the last two seasons and was again expected to be one of the weaker American League clubs heading into 2020. They’ve surprised with an 11-8 start, but do not expect this to last as they have only been priced as a favorite in two games and lost them both. Asher Wojciechowski doesn’t inspire much confidence on the mound. Saturday’s starter did throw 3 ⅔ scoreless innings against Washington on Sunday (game that was finished yday), but the O’s lost his first two starts, one of which saw him give up 3 HRs.

The Nats go with Pat Corbin, who has averaged 6 IP per outing while never allowing more than 3 ER. He did not pitch in the previous series vs. Baltimore. Last time Corbin did pitch, the Nationals won 16-4. Washington is scoring a ton on the road thus far and is 15-8 when priced at -175 or higher away from home the L3 seasons. 7* Washington

7* Oakland (9:40 ET):  The A’s have been as good as anybody this year as there’s nothing phony about a 13-6 start that has them first in the AL West. They won their first nine games in August and while they then dropped the first two games to the Angels (our Game of the Week was on the Angels’ 6-0 victory Tuesday!), it was a bounce back effort on Wednesday with Oakland prevailing 8-4. I don’t see them having much trouble at all tonight with the Bay Area rival Giants. 

Over in the National League, the Giants have been one of the weaker teams as their -29 run differential is dead last. They’re coming off a 5-1 loss at Houston Wednesday as they’ve topped five runs just once in the last nine games. While they haven’t had much problem scoring at home thus far (6.3 runs per game!), they also are giving up 6.2 rpg here! That figures to start catching up with them. 

Both starters tonight are set for their fifth outing of 2020. Frankie Montas has a 3-1 TSR for Oakland with a 1.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in all four starts and just tossed seven scoreless innings against Oakland last Saturday. SF’s Johnny Cueto took a no-hit bid into the sixth Saturday against the Dodgers, but still ended up being charged with four runs for the second time in three starts. He has a 6.28 ERA during that time. Cueto hasn’t gone a full six innings yet either. 7* Oakland

7* Houston (9:10 ET): The Astros are another team that needs to pick it up as they’re currently third in the AL West with an 8-10 record. They did win Wednesday, 5-1 against San Francisco, to take two of three in that series after previously dropping five straight games - all on the road. Despite the losing record, Houston still can claim a positive run differential, which tells me things are not nearly as bad as they may appear. A weekend series against bottom-feeder Seattle should be just what the doctor ordered.

The Mariners are last in the division with a 7-13 record and have baseball’s worst run differential at -35. They’ve lost two straight (both to Texas) and like Houston had Thursday off. It was their first off day of the season. Still, that’s not enough to cure what ails them. Starter Yusei Kikuchi has poor numbers in his three starts this season (5.28 ERA, 1.304 WHIP) and against Houston (6.46 ERA in five career starts). Seattle’s bullpen (6.78 ERA) is also very bad and a contributing factor to why the team is allowing 5.8 rpg this season. 

We saw the bullpen woes come to the forefront yet again on Wednesday when the M’s blew a three-run lead in a 7-4 loss to Texas. The Astros’ lineup could very well see Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez in it for the first time of the season. We know that Framber Valdez will be starting and he’s off a strong outing against Oakland where he allowed just two runs (only one earned) in seven innings. 7* Houston

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians absolutely smoked the Tigers in 2019, going 18-1 against their AL Central rival. They hope for similar results in this series as they look to break out of the pack in the American League. Despite just losing a pair of games to the Cubs (where they scored only three runs total), the Tribe have a +11 run differential indicating that they are on track to be one of the eight playoff teams. 

The Tigers are actually ahead of the Indians in the standings right now with a 9-7 record, although they’ve given up more runs than they’ve allowed so far. A three-game sweep of lowly Pittsburgh has greatly inflated some of their offensive numbers. They scored 30 runs in that series while they’ve scored just 52 in the other 13 games. 1B CJ Cron is currently out of the lineup, leaving a massive hole at the cleanup spot. Without him, the Tigers just dropped two in a row to the White Sox. 

Cleveland needs to get its own offense going as they’ve been held to two runs or fewer in 12 of their 19 games. But they have also allowed a MLB-low 2.7 runs per game. (Only the Dodgers are also below 3.4). In many ways, the numbers from tonight’s starter Aaron Civale reflect the kind of season the Tribe is having. Civale has a 1-2 TSR despite a 2.84 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That’s better than his counterpart from Detroit this evening, Ivan Nova, who has a 2-1 TSR despite a 5.74 ERA and 1.532 WHIP. Nova allowed 5 ER his last start. 8* Cleveland

10* LA Dodgers (9:40 ET): The Dodgers, who I believe are the best team in baseball, will try and earn a split of this four-game series with San Diego. They won yesterday, 6-0, which obviously means they dropped the first two games. But sporting the league’s best run differential (+42) by a comfortable margin tells me that this team’s best days are ahead. Julio Urias, originally supposed to start Wednesday’s game, will now get the nod tonight. 

The Dodgers are allowing the fewest number of runs per game in the National League right now (just 2.8), but the biggest question seems to be their lack of offense. A four-run eighth made last night’s game seem like a bigger blowout than it actually was. However, I’m not concerned with the fact the Dodgers have managed only nine runs in the series. They are still among the league leaders with 96 runs scored in 19 games. 

What is surprising is that San Diego is neck and neck with the Dodgers in terms of number of runs scored this season. It’ll be up to Urias, who has a 1.76 ERA vs. the Padres, to slow them down. I think he will. Obviously, SD failed to score a single run last night. Chris Paddack is the Padres starter tonight. He has a 5.31 ERA in four career starts vs. LA. He’s also allowed a HR in three consecutive starts. If it gets down to the respective bullpens, then that’s a huge edge for the home team. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): The Red Sox just aren’t very good in 2020 and their fortune doesn’t figure to change much Wednesday in this matchup with Blake Snell and the Rays. Tampa came into Fenway Park and won 8-2 on Tuesday, their 4th win in a row and 5th in the last 6 games. One big six-run inning was all that they needed. They’ve now scored 8 runs in B2B games to open the series and had a season-high 16 hits in Monday’s opener. These two AL East rivals are heading in opposite directions right now.

Boston has lost 7 of its last 10 games, landing them in last place in the division. They are 1-3 vs. Tampa Bay this year having allowed 5+ runs in every game. Since the start of last season, they are just 8-15 vs. the Rays. Zach Godley will get the starting nod Wednesday for the Red Sox and he has a 6.14 ERA and 1.774 WHIP after two starts. The team has lost them both. Going back to last season, Godley has an 0-6 TSR L6 starts and hasn’t gone longer than four innings in any of them. Boston’s bullpen isn’t very good either.

Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young Winner for the Rays, has yet to record a decision in any of his three 2020 outings. None of them have seen him pitch more than three innings. Two of the three, he didn’t allow any runs. He has said he’d like to work as many as five innings tonight. He should pitch well, no matter how deep into the game he goes. Boston is hitting just .202 in games vs. southpaw starters. The Red Sox have only been a ML home dog of +125 to +175 twice in the last three seasons. They lost both times. 8* Tampa Bay

7* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Morale may be pretty low right now in the City of Brotherly Love (at least there’s the Flyers!) after another head-scratching loss last night. But I just can’t see the Phillies losing two in a row to the Orioles at home. The Phils had a three-run lead Tuesday and were still ahead going into the ninth. It ended up being a 10-9 defeat in extra innings as the team fell to 5-7 despite playing every game but two at home. But they’ve only been outscored by 4 runs all year and today should be a positive result. 

Baltimore won only 54 games last year and 47 the year before that. Those win totals would be incredible for 2020, but remember those were 162-game seasons. They were outscored by 522 runs the previous two seasons and were widely expected to be bad again this year. But the O’s are surprising 8-7 following three straight wins, two of which have seen them score 10+ runs. But asking them to win more than three in a row is a tall order. They are just 2-8 the L3 seasons when on a win streak of three or more games. This includes a 4-0 loss to Miami last week. 

Tonight’s starting pitching matchup seems to be heavily titled in the favor of the Phillies. Zach Eflin allowed just two unearned runs in his first start, which was a 5-4 win over the Yankees as a +125 ML dog. Wade LeBlanc started for Baltimore three times so far and has a 6.91 ERA. He was shelled both times on the road, giving up a total of 10 runs in 9 IP. Remember I had the Phils two days ago and they jumped out to a 13-1 lead vs. Atlanta, holding on for the victory. 7* Philadelphia

10* LA Angels (9:40 ET): Now that the A’s nine-game win streak is over (lost 10-9 to the Angels last night), it’s probably an opportune time to fade them. It was a pretty amazing comeback for the Angels yesterday, led by two Mike Trout home runs, as they were able to rally from an early five-run deficit. While the Halos are only 6-11 on the year, what’s interesting about them is they’ve been ML favorites in 10 of their games so far. They were underdogs yday, but are 45-25 as home favorites of -125 to -175 L3 seasons.

Last Thursday in Seattle, Dylan Bundy threw the first complete game for the Angels’ rotation going all the way back to 2018. I took him in that spot and it ended up being a 6-1 win behind Bundy’s 10 strikeouts. He allowed only one run on four hits. Bundy, who came over from Baltimore in the offseason, is off to a great start with his new club as he has a 2.08 ERA and 0.60 WHIP through three starts. 

I think it speaks volumes that the Angels are favored in this game. Oddsmakers pretty clearly have a high opinion of them and think they’re better than their record. Oakland is probably going to be without Ramon Laureano for this one as he’s bound to be suspended for his role in the brawl with Houston over the weekend. A’s starter Michael Fiers does have a 3-0 TSR, but his ERA is 5.63 and his WHIP is 1.312. Those numbers pale in comparison to Bundy’s. Fiers also has a 5.15 ERA in 15 career appearances vs. LA. I’ve had success taking the Angels this year and will definitely do so tonight. 10* LA Angels

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians were forced to make a pitching change for Tuesday’s contest with the Cubs as Adam Plutko will replace Mike Clevinger. Reason being Clevinger violated protocol by going out with reliever Zach Plesac for a “night on the town” in Chicago. The thing is, this isn’t much of a big deal - at least in the interim. Pitching has been fantastic for Cleveland thus far and while he’s made only one start compared to Clevinger’s three, Plutko actually has the superior numbers this season. 

Plutko’s only prior start vs. 7/28 vs. the White Sox, whom he held to two runs on just five hits. Both runs allowed were solo homers. As mentioned above, Indians’ pitching has been ridiculous so far with a MLB-leading 2.04 ERA and opponents batting just .188. The Tribe haven’t allowed more than five runs in any game this year. To put things in some perspective, Cleveland has played four MORE games than the Cubs yet has allowed 21 FEWER runs! 

The Indians and Cubs have the same number of wins (10) but the latter has only three losses due to their weekend series against St. Louis being called off due to COVID-19 concerns (with the Cardinals). So now there’s an issue of rust after the Cubs had to sit around all weekend. Jon Lester starts and while he’s been lights out his first two starts, the margin for error is slim when facing anyone on this Cleveland staff. If it comes down the bullpens, that’s a huge edge for the Indians. Don’t discount the “revenge factor” from the 2016 World Series either. The Indians are 6-2 at home thus far and have won five of their last six games overall. The Cubs last game (Thursday) saw them get beat 13-2 .. by the Royals. 8* Cleveland

10* Texas (9:05 ET): We’re back to fading Seattle, something that I’ve done regularly and with plenty of success so far this season. The Mariners picked up a rare win on Sunday, defeating the Colorado Rockies 5-3. That snapped a three-game losing streak, though the M’s are still just 6-11 on the year and their -38 run run differential is the worst in baseball. Having to travel to face a surging Texas team, I see the M’s resuming their losing ways on Monday. 

The Rangers are off a sweep of the Angels over the weekend. They held the Halos to just six runs in the three games as it certainly seems the new ballpark here in Arlington is a lot more pitcher-friendly. Thus far, the Rangers are allowing fewer than 3.0 rpg at home. Kyle Gibson, who has a 3.64 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Seattle (all w/ Minnesota), starts today’s game. Though winless in two 2020 starts, Gibson has a 2.75 ERA and has given up just 3 ER in 11 IP. 

Seattle’s pitching staff has been far less stingy as they came into yday’s game having given up an average of 6.3 rpg. That number jumps to 7.3 on the road, which is problematic to say the least. Starting tonight will be Justin Dunn, who is one of several young (and unproven) arms in the starting rotation. So far, Dunn has a 6.43 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in two starts. The Mariners bullpen has been equally terrible. All signs point to a romp for the home team here. 10* Texas

8* Philadelphia (6:05 ET): This is the finale of a four-game series which has seen Atlanta take two of the first three. The Braves swept a doubleheader on Sunday (both games only 7 innings per 2020 rules), winning 8-0 and 5-2. So this is a big revenge spot for the Phillies. At 11-6, the Braves are off to a great start (+27 run differential) but before yday they were only 2-4 on the road. They are 0-3 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175 and it’s worth noting the favorite has won all three games in this series. 

Desperate to earn a series split, the Phillies will hand the baseball to Aaron Nola. Nola had some hard-luck his last start, receiving a no-decision despite holding the Yankees to just one run (a solo HR) and three hits in 6 IP. He also had 12 strikeouts. But the Phillies still lost 3-1. Nola is an impressive 10-5 w/ a 2.94 ERA in 18 career starts vs. Atlanta, so I expect him to pitch well again here. 

 Sean Newcomb starts tonight for Atlanta. The southpaw failed to go a full five innings in either of his first two starts. Both of those were at home. He allowed six runs in the first one, only to get bailed out by the offense in an 11-10 Braves win over the Mets. He wasn’t as fortunate in his last start with the team losing 2-1 to Toronto. The Braves had one other shutout prior to yday and wound up losing their next game. History repeats itself here. 8* Philadelphia

10* Over Indians/White Sox (7:08 ET): Admittedly, betting a Shane Bieber start to go Over the total sounds risky. The Indians starter for Sunday has been lights out through three starts with a 0.83 ERA and 0.692 WHIP. All three starts have gone Under and the Indians are 3-0 as well. Bieber has a ridiculous 35 strikeouts in 20 ⅔ IP, which is the third most for any pitcher in MLB history through his first three starts. Furthermore, Cleveland is now 14-2 Under in all games this season!

However, as the Tribe showed yday, they are capable of putting some runs on the board. They scored seven times in the win, evening this series up at one game each. Now they’d previously been shut out Friday. But it was just two games ago that they hung 13 runs on the Reds. I do believe this lineup will start to “get going” and it’s worth noting the only other time White Sox starter Lucas Giolito started here at home, he gave up seven runs in 3 ⅔ IP. 

Now I’m well aware that Giolito has since bounced back w/ a pair of quality starts, one of them being six shutout innings vs. these Indians. But that was on the road. The White Sox are allowing more than 6.0 rpg at home thus far and the bullpen ERA here at Guaranteed Rate Field was a woeful 5.36 entering yesterday’s game. It’s a low total Sunday night and I see this game sneaking Over. 10* Over Indians/White Sox

8* San Diego (4:10 ET): The Padres were unable to rally Saturday, falling just short against the D’backs by a score of 3-2. They’d previously won the series opener, 3-0, in a game where we backed them. I’ll back ‘em again here Sunday for many of the same reasons I did Friday. Arizona is not a good team; in fact they have the 2nd worst run differential in the entire National League right now at -25. Outside of one big explosion vs. Houston earlier in the week, the D’backs haven’t scored more than five runs in a game this year. 

Madison Bumgarner looks to be toast, compounding problems for the visitors. He’s got an 0-3 TSR and 7.05 ERA through three starts, one of those being a loss to San Diego. Going back to late last year, Bumgarner has an 0-7 TSR his L7 starts. Adding to the concern here is that Bumgarner’s velocity is down (on his fastball) as is his KW ratio (only 1.83).

San Diego, who is 5-0 in series openers thus far and just 3-7 in all other games, will turn to Dinelson Lamet on Sunday. Lament has already faced the D’backs once and he held them to one run in five innings, a game the Padres ended up winning 12-7. Lamet has a 1.72 ERA across three starts and we should see him pitch well again Sunday. Lamet has allowed just four runs total so far, one of them unearned. 8* San Diego

9* Oakland (4:10 ET): The A’s stunned the Astros last night to win their 7th in a row. They now lead the AL West by 3.5 games. Last night’s game went 13 innings and after Houston scored in the top half of the frame, Oakland answered back with two runs of its own. The Astros have now lost three in a row dating back to its series with Arizona. Last night’s result will almost certainly have a “carryover” effect given how it went down. I’ll back the A’s in what it is a “statement series” for them. 

All seven of Oakland’s wins during this current streak have come against division rivals. But the previous six came at the expense of Texas and Seattle, neither of whom is very good. Beating the Astros, who are the standard-bearers of the division is a big deal. With all the controversy surrounding the ‘Stros this year (cheating scandal) and the shortened 60-game schedule, this would seem to be an ideal season for the A’s to make their move to the top of the AL West. So far, so good. 

Houston is giving up far too many runs this year due to a combo of no depth in the starting rotation and a bad bullpen. Pitching was not the problem yesterday, but they also had Zack Greinke starting yday. We’ll see how Framber Valdez does here. The last time he faced the A’s, it was part of a 21-7 loss last September. The Astros’ bullpen was good yday, but entered the game with a 1.70 WHIP. Frankie Montas starts for Oakland and he’s allowed just 4 ER in 16 IP so far. Houston is likely without George Springer (leads team in HRs and RBIs) for the remainder of the series. 9* Oakland

8* San Diego (9:10 ET): The Padres were one of the nice early season surprises, but have hit the skids in recent days, dropping two in a row. Still, they are among the highest scoring teams in all of baseball, scoring two more runs than the Dodgers in the same number of games (13). They had yday off to recoup from a tough 7-6 loss to the Dodgers where the game ended with a runner thrown out at the plate. Now they face an Arizona team they’ve already taken three of four from earlier in the year and I believe a turnaround is imminent. 

Arizona, though off B2B wins, has struggled in the early going. They are 5-8 and their -23 run differential is the National League’s worst. It’s tough to like them here with Luke Weaver starting as Weaver has a 14.73 ERA and 2.592 WHIP after two outings. He allowed six runs in both, one of which was against the Padres. So San Diego’s early season offensive prowess should definitely continue tonight. 

The D’backs are averaging just 2.8 rpg on the road so far plus they played yesterday. Not having the off-day like San Diego is a definite disadvantage coming into this series. Zach Davies will start here for the Padres in what was originally going to be Joey Lucchesi’s spot. But Lucchesi had struggled this year and Davies looks to be an upgrade. Davies has allowed just nine hits in 10 IP so far with one walk. 8* San Diego

10* Cincinnati (8:10 ET): Yesterday, I joked that maybe the Angels are in need of OUR blessing as they’d won when we took them Tuesday and then lost Wednesday when we laid off. Well a play on the Halos yday resulted in another win for both them and us. The same joke could be made regarding the Reds, who are 2-0 this season when we back them and a terribly disappointing 3-8 otherwise. Well, good news Reds fans. I’m taking your team as my Game of the Week for Friday!

Cincy was humiliated last night, losing 13-0 at Cleveland. That was an Indians team which had been at the bottom of the league in scoring until yesterday. Luckily, Trevor Bauer will start tonight’s game for the Reds. Bauer has a 0.68 ERA and 0.525 WHIP in two starts thus far, both of which were against Detroit. The Brewers have never faced Bauer before, so they’re at a disadvantage. 

Of course, it won’t matter how well Bauer pitches if the Reds can’t score. They’ve been shutout in back to back games and haven’t scored a run in 23 innings. But that was facing the Indians tremendous pitching staff. Milwaukee’s pitching hasn’t been nearly as sharp, though they did allow only three runs (all yday) in a two-game sweep of the White Sox. But I don’t have a ton of faith in Eric Lauer, who starts today for the first time after starting the year on the COVID-19 list (came into contact with someone who had the virus). Lauer went just 14-17 in two seasons with San Diego. His ERA was 4.43 in 52 starts. 10* Cincinnati

10* LA Angels (4:10 ET): Maybe it’s the Angels that need OUR blessing? I took them Tuesday in what seemed to be a favorable spot and they delivered a 5-3 win. But now it’s back to the drawing board following Wednesday’s 7-6 loss. I had no play last night as the Halos have certainly had some trouble beating the M’s so far this year. It’s just a 2-3 head to head record, which is surprising as I don’t expect much from Seattle this season. The Angels got Mike Trout back in the lineup Tuesday and he’s performed well thus far. Shohei Ohtani, who hasn’t worked out as a starter, will return to being a DH for this afternoon’s rubber match. I just can’t see the Angels losing to the Mariners again and will offer up another “coveted” blessing! 

Dylan Bundy starts for LA here. He’s opened 2020 with a pair of quality starts, allowing just four runs and seven hits in 12 ⅔ IP. He also has a 15-2 KW ratio. Free from the confines of pitching for Baltimore, Bundy should start to see more success with his new club. Bundy has a 3.12 ERA in five career appearances against Seattle, three of those being starts. The Mariners came into yesterday hitting a collective .178 in five home games. 

Taijuan Walker will oppose Bundy here and while he also pitched well his last time out, he was shaky in his first when he allowed five runs in 3 ⅓ IP. Walker has a 5.23 ERA in six career starts vs. the Angels. Walker was a big ML dog when he won his last start. I can’t see that happening two times in a row nor can I see the team winning as a big ML dog two days in a row. 10* LA Angels

10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): The Pirates are pretty clearly outclassed in this series, which now shifts to Pittsburgh for the next two games. The Bucs had no luck in Minnesota, losing 5-4 and 7-3 the last two days, and playing in an empty PNC Park isn’t about to change things. The Twins have won five straight games while the Pirates have lost six in a row. The underdogs had their chance Monday, but blew a 4-0 lead. Look for the Twins to continue to make them pay. 

At 9-2, Minnesota has equaled the franchise’s best ever start through 11 games. They have a +27 run differential, which is the best in the American League and second best in all of baseball (Dodgers). Randy Dobnak gets the start tonight, looking to continue his own personal strong start to 2020. In two starts, Dobnak has gone nine innings and allowed just one run on six hits. Last time out, he pitched five scoreless frames in a 4-1 win over Cleveland. 

Trevor Williams has the unenviable task of facing a red hot Twins lineup, which is led by Nelson Cruz, who already has 15 RBI’s. Williams has an 0-2 TSR so far with the Pirates losing 9-1 (St. Louis) and 6-3 (Cubs). The Bucs have baseball’s worst record right now (2-9) and I’m not surprised as they were projected to be among the worst teams this season. The Twins have allowed no more than four runs in any of the L9 games while the Pirates have managed only 14 runs total during their six-game slide. 10* Minnesota

10* LA Angels (10:10 ET): Seattle was routed yet again last night, this time losing 11-1 here at home to Oakland. It was the M’s third loss in a row and this figures to be a season of losing streaks in the Pacific Northwest as the club doesn’t project to be much of a factor in the AL West. However, they were able to take two of three from the Angels earlier this year. Both wins came as big ML underdogs. But that should have the Halos motivated coming into this series opener and I expect them to win big. 

In addition to being motivated, the Angels come in rested as they had Monday off. It’s been a rough start so far for this team as they are 3-7 and in last place in the West, one-half game behind the Mariners. But things are looking up as Mike Trout is expected to return from the paternity list tonight. Obviously, missing the former MVP’s bat was a big deal in the weekend series with Houston. Yet they still scored a respectable 16 runs in that three-game series and almost took two of three (lost in extra innings Sunday). 

Andrew Heaney (0-2 TSR) has yet to record a decision for the Angels, but has pitched well in his two starts with a 2.79 ERA and 0.827 WHIP. He went five innings vs. Seattle last time out and allowed just two runs. Again, he’ll be opposed by Justin Dunn, who was less effective than Heaney in the previous matchup, yet somehow Seattle came away with the 10-7 win. Dunn lasted only three innings, gave up three runs, and had more walks than strikeouts. This is a GREAT spot for LA to get back on the track. 10* LA Angels

10* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): The Reds played a doubleheader on Sunday, but with such games now limited to just seven innings, that’s not the kind of disadvantage it would normally be. Plus, they swept the twinbill, beating the Tigers 4-3 and 4-0. It was the best day of the season so far for the Reds, who are now 4-5 after coming into 2020 with much hype, tabbed by many (including me) as a potential dark horse in the National League. They’ll return home Monday to host an Indians team that is really struggling at the plate. 

Cleveland lost 3-1 Sunday, the fifth consecutive game they were held to two runs or fewer. They’ve been shutout twice (including Saturday) and scored a grand total of four runs during the five games. Obviously, that’s never good, but today the Tribe will run into a red hot starter in Sonny Gray, who is 2-0 for Cincinnati w/ a 0.72 ERA and 0.552 WHIP. Gray had 11 K’s in his last start and allowed just one hit in 6 ⅔ IP. He’s now allowed six or less hits in 35 consecutive starts.

Not all the news has been good for the Reds over the L24 hours. Joey Votto is likely to sit this out after self-reporting COVID-19 symptoms. But considering Votto was 0 for 9 at the plate the L3 games, maybe that’s not too big of a loss. The Reds came into yday averaging 5.6 rpg, which is near the top of the league. Cleveland starter Zach Plesac is off his own impressive outing w/ 11 K’s, but the Indians still lost the game due to not scoring. I just don’t think the Indians will have enough offense to compete tonight. 10* Cincinnati

10* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): The Dodgers looked as strong as ever yday, beating the D’backs 11-2. They’re now 6-3, which doesn’t seem all that dominant, but their +27 YTD run differential is easily a league best and 11 runs better than the next best team. MVP Corey Bellinger didn’t even play Saturday as he was given the day off. Mookie Betts and Corey Seager were also both pulled once LA had built its big lead. As if the Dodgers weren’t already strong enough, today they’ll be sending Clayton Kershaw to the bump for the very first time. 

Kershaw was supposed to start Opening Day, but was scratched due to a back issue.  That was over a week ago, so everything should be fine. Kershaw has a 2.84 ERA in 33 career starts vs. Arizona, so history says he’ll pitch well in this spot. The D’backs had only five hits yesterday, all singles. They have scored only 27 runs total in 9 games so far, never topping five in any one contest.  Dodgers’ opponents have scored more than three runs in a game only twice so far this season. 

Merrill Kelly will pitch for the D’backs. It’s a challenging spot going against Kershaw and presumably Bellinger will be in the lineup today, making it an even more formidable Dodgers lineup that he’s got to face. Now Kelly did have a no-hitter going for 6+ innings in his first start, which ended up being a 4-1 win at Texas. But the Dodgers had three innings of 3+ runs last night and also homered four times. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Over Padres/Rockies (8:10 ET): San Diego is living up to hype having started 6-2. They came from behind to take last night’s opener in Colorado, 8-7, thanks to a pair of home runs in the top of the ninth. The Padres lead the league in runs scored (52) and while they’re tied for most games played (8), their runs per game average (6.5) also is a MLB-best. Playing in Coors Field doesn’t figure to slow them down any and so Saturday’s matchup is one which I feel is likely to go Over the total.

The Rockies came into this series on a four-game win streak. They’d allowed just nine runs total in the first five games, but all of those were played on the road. The total number of runs allowed this season nearly doubled with the first game at Coors and that really should not come as a shock seeing as they allow the most runs per game at home almost every season (6.7 in ‘19). Of course, they also averaged more than 6.0 rpg at home LY as well and offense wasn’t the problem last night as they had 14 hits, two of which were HR’s. 

Joey Luccheshi didn’t pitch all that great for the Padres in his first outing. He lasted just 3 ⅔ innings and gave up two runs on five hits. The Padres still won 6-2 as they’ve scored five runs in every game but one so far. Having struggled the third time through the order last week, I don’t expect Lucchesi to last long tonight. For Colorado, Kyle Freeland went 3-11 with a 6.42 ERA in 2019. His first start this year was a win, but that was on the road. 10* Over Padres/Rockies

10* Chi White Sox (8:05 ET): The White Sox have a nice little edge for Friday’s series opener in that they were off Thursday. Meanwhile, Kansas City was in Detroit. The White Sox came into 2020 with a lot of hype, but are just 2-4 even after they blanked the Indians 4-0 Wednesday. Still, the market has their respect as they opened as a fairly decided road favorite for tonight’s game. The White Sox were road favorites of -125 to -175 just SIX times all of the L2 seasons. They went 5-1 in those games. 

It also helps Chicago that they have Dallas Keuchel on the bump here. Keuchel did not go long (5 ⅔ IP) nor did he have many K’s (only 1!). However, the White Sox did win his first start 10-3 (against Minnesota) as Keuchel allowed only two runs on three hits. Keuchel has good career numbers vs. the Royals and he’s got a streak of six consecutive quality starts against them. In the only meeting last season, he struck out 12 in 6 IP while giving up just two runs on three hits. 

KC has played all seven of its games on the road and is 3-4. Tonight’s starter Kris Bubic will be making his big league debut. It’s a tough spot starting opposite someone like Keuchel and facing a lineup that had yesterday off. I just don’t think the Royals are very good and the road team should roll here. 10* Chi White Sox

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): Last night saw the Braves finally break through against the Rays with a convincing 7-4 victory here at home. They’d lost each of the previous two days, both in Tampa, 14-5 and 5-2. Now they can earn a series split with another victory here at Truist Park. I like their chances of doing so and the (early) sharp money seems to agree with me! 

Max Fried is the starter Thursday for Atlanta. His first start of the year saw him allow just two runs and two hits in five innings. The Braves won that game, 5-3 over the Mets. Though he’s never faced the Rays, Fried is 3-0 in three previous IL starts with a 2.55 ERA. I like that. It should also be mentioned that yesterday was the Rays’ first road game of the season and it was the most runs they allowed in any game to date. 

The Rays’ have their own promising southpaw on the mound here in Ryan Yarbrough. Like Fried, he looked good his first time out. But Yarbrough failed to pick up the victory, keeping him winless since August of last season. That’s a stretch of nine starts. His Interleague resume is not as good with a 5.74 ERA in eight appearances. Go with the Braves in this one. 10* Atlanta

10* Over Red Sox/Mets (7:07 ET): This has been a somewhat unique series in the sense that the road team has won every game. Also, all three games have seen exactly 11 total runs scored. The Mets won the two games at Fenway 8-3 and 7-4 while last night the Red Sox struck back with a 6-5 win here at Citi Field. The two games in Boston did NOT go Over the total as the O/U line was 11.5. Last night’s did as the number was much shorter due to deGrom starting for the Mets. The number isn’t quite as low tonight, but I’m still going Over. 

Boston had actually dropped four in a row before rallying to win last night’s game. They’ve got Martin Perez set to start tonight and he did not look good the first time around, giving up five runs in five innings and that was against lowly Baltimore. Red Sox opponents have scored an average of 6.0 rpg this season. This game is a National League park, but remember that teams no longer send their pitcher up to bat thanks to the universal DH rule.

On the bright side for the Red Sox, the six runs they scored last night were the most in any game since a 13-2 win over Baltimore to start the season. Mets’ starter Steven Matz did look good in his first outing of 2020, but the team’s bullpen is in shambles right now (6.39 ERA) and has already blown two games. They’ve also allowed at least one run in every game so far. Offensively, I have less concern about the Mets, who have scored 20 runs in this series and had 15 hits yesterday.  This one should find a way to get Over. 10* Over Red Sox/Mets

6* LA Angels (10:10 ET): As I predicted, the Angels had little difficulty with the Mariners last night. They never trailed and really broke the game open in the bottom of the fourth. The Angels scored in six of the final seven innings and ended up winning 10-2. A key ended up being Anthony Rendon, who reached base safely three times while homering. In yday’s analysis, I cited Rendon making his 2020 debut as being huge for the Angels’ lineup. Rendon, who was signed away from Washington in the offseason, led MLB in RBI’s last season. 

Both of these teams started their seasons 1-3. But clearly they’re not even as the Mariners are likely set to have a bad 2020 while the Angels are hoping to find themselves in the playoff mix. Seattle’s pitching staff has allowed 6+ runs in every game so far (31 total in 4 games). They go with the unproven Justin Dunn on the mound tonight. No Mariners’ starter has lasted longer than 4 ⅔ IP so far and only one (Gonzales) has an ERA below 10.00. 

Angels starter Andrew Heaney has just one win in nine tries vs. Seattle, but did pitch well in the season opener. He went 4 ⅔ IP and allowed just 1 run and 2 hits. He had 6 strikeouts and no walks. While the Angels lost 7-3 (MLB’s 1st extra inning game under the new rules), it was certainly not the fault of Heaney. LA is 14-8 the L2 seasons as a home favorite of -175 to -250 and I expect them to continue to roll in this series. 6* LA Angels

9* Oakland (3:05 ET): Colorado is now 3-1 and that’s largely owed to the fact they’ve given up just eight runs total on the season. Of course, no discussion about the Rockies can omit the wild home vs. road splits the team often goes through. Coors Field all but ensures the Rockies’ pitching staff will never be among the league’s elite. However, this group has held its own on the road in 2020. At least so far. 

German Marquez is starting today for Colorado. He pitched well in the season opener, giving up just one run on two hits in 5 ⅔ IP. However, that was the one game the Rockies lost (1-0 to Texas). Marquez has a solid history when pitching on the road, especially in Interleague Play. But I’m not not buying him nor the Rockies today. This is a team that went just 28-53 on the road last year. 

Typically, Colorado’s offense dies down when they leave the thin air of Denver. They did manage to score eight runs last night, but that was as many as they scored the previous three days combined. Last year’s .230 team BA on the road was MLB’s worst. Here the Rockies will face Frankie Montas, who pitched the A’s to an Opening Day victory last Friday. He allowed just one run in four innings. The A’s are still 45-26 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 even after yday’s loss and they are 73-47 in day games the L3 seasons. They came into 2020 with much higher expectations than Colorado and should get revenge for last night’s defeat. 9* Oakland

7* LA Angels (9:40 ET): Both teams wrapped up their first series yesterday and neither got the result they’d hoped for. Los Angeles was shutout 3-0 in Oakland while Seattle lost 8-5 at Houston. In the case of each team, they lost three of four in their first series. But coming home, look for the Angels to have the decided edge on Tuesday as there was at least some optimism for them coming into the 2020 season. Even with the expanded playoff field this year, there’s little hope for a poor Mariners team.

Despite getting shutout, LA did actually outhit Oakland yday. The offense only scored 11 runs total in the four games at Oakland, but should be getting a boost tonight as Anthony Rendon appears ready to make his season debut. Rendon, who led MLB in RBI’s LY playing for the Washington Nationals, was the Angels’ key FA signing in the offseason. The Angels should also do better offensively thanks to a suspect Seattle pitching staff which has given up 6+ runs in every game so far. Starting tonight’s game for them is Justus Sheffield, who was winless w/ a 5.53 ERA in eight tries last season. 

The Angels will counter with Patrick Sandoval, who had a winless 2019 himself. But he was a rookie. I look for some improvement from him, at least for tonight, as the Mariners don’t have a very strong lineup. Seattle has lost 36 of its last 51 games vs. a LH starter. Meanwhile, the Angels are 5-0 their L5 vs. LH starters. 7* LA Angels

10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): Each team has started its season 2-1. The Twins, I was on Sunday, and they delivered a 14-2 victory. St. Louis lost Sunday, 5-1, in a failed attempt to sweep Pittsburgh. A second straight series on the road does them no favors here while the Twins will certainly be happy to play their home opener as they begin a stretch of eight straight games at Target Field. Veteran Homer Bailey makes his debut for the club and he should quickly fall in love with a Twins offense that will support him.

The Twins set a MLB record for home runs a season ago and have had no problem hitting the longball so far in 2020. The team has 7 HRs so far, 4 of them coming in the last game. In both wins, they went for 10+ runs Monday they face Carlos Martinez, yet another pitcher coming in off a near two-year absence (seems like there’s been a lot of those this year). Martinez is a two-time All-Star, but it’s a big test facing this Twins lineup on the road.

The Cardinals have lost four straight interleague games when priced as the underdog as they are also just 1-6 the L7 times they’ve been off a game where they were held to two runs or fewer. The Twins are 7-0 the past 7 Tuesday games and have a better record than the Cardinals the L2 seasons when coming off an off-day. 10* Minnesota

8* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): So the Pirates were able to give 1st year skipper Derek Shelton his first career win on Sunday as they avoided a sweep in St. Louis. In that game, Shelton actually got into the season’s first argument w/ an umpire (at a social distance!) and that seemed to inspire the Bucs a bit. However, this isn’t a team I’m very high on for the 2020 season and you should expect them to lose the home opener on Monday to a team they struggled mightily against last year. 

Like Pittsburgh, Milwaukee dropped two of three in its first series. In the Brewers’ case, it was to the Chicago Cubs. The offense was held in check most of the weekend, especially Sunday when they had only three hits. Two of the Brew Crew’s best hitters - Yelich and Hiura - went a combined 2 for 25 in the three games. But this is a spot where the offense - and team - should bounce back. The Brewers were 15-4 vs. the Pirates LY and have beaten them six straight times.

Milwaukee also seems to have the starting pitching edge for tonight’s opener. Adrian Houser was pretty serviceable LY for the Brew Crew and is a better option than what the Bucs have at their disposal right now. With Archer and Taillon both out for the season, Pittsburgh’s starting rotation has the least depth this side of Baltimore. Brault gets the call Monday and he was winless in five tries vs. Milwaukee last season. 8* Milwaukee

10* Over Braves/Mets (7:05 ET): The first two games of the series have gone Under with the Mets winning the opener 1-0 followed by the Braves bouncing back yesterday with a 5-3 victory that went to 10 innings. But Jacob deGrom isn’t pitching tonight (he started for the Mets Friday) nor do I think we’ll see the likes of the pitching performances we got from Steven Matz and Max Fried yesterday. Remember that the DH is in play for the National League this season. That should theoretically lead to an increase in scoring. I like tonight’s ESPN matchup to go Over the total. 

Starting for the Mets tonight will be Rick Porcello. This will be his first ever start as a NL pitcher after spending 11 years with the Tigers and Red Sox. While Porcello did win 14 games in ‘19, he also posted a 5.52 ERA. Opponents hit .291 against him in the final 22 starts. Another still ongoing issue for the Mets remains the backend of the bullpen. Closer Diaz blew yet another save opportunity on Saturday, which was an ongoing theme last season. The Braves offense, which didn’t manage much in the first 18 innings of the season, should finally get going tonight.

Sean Newcomb gets the baseball here for Atlanta. His numbers were “so-so” last year and he’s 3-3 in seven career starts vs. NY. He worked mainly as a reliever last season, but did have a high WHIP (1.867) when he started. After two low-scoring games, I see this as an opportunity for both offenses to really get going. The Mets were 44-26-6 Over in division games LY. 10* Over Braves/Mets

8* Minnesota (2:10 ET): This rubber match of the first series sees the Twins and White Sox both looking to establish early season supremacy in the American League Central. Minnesota took the first game by a score of 10-5. But it was Chicago’s turn to put up double digit runs yesterday in a 10-3 triumph. While the White Sox are the trendy dark horse pick in the division, let’s not forget who won it last year. That would be the Twins, who set a MLB record for home runs along the way.

Quality pitching has obviously been scarce in the first two games, but Kenta Maeda will look to change that as he makes his Twins’ debut on Sunday. Maeda went 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA for the Dodgers in 2019. Those aren’t impressive numbers, but a 1.07 WHIP was and tells me he was deserving of a better fate in terms of wins and losses. Something to keep in mind about the Twins is that going into yday they’d beaten Chicago 37 of 52 times including five straight here on the South Side.

Chicago goes with Reynaldo Lopez in the rubber match. He did not have a good 2019, finishing with a 5.38 ERA and 1.457 WHIP. His numbers were a bit better at home, but the team still won just 14 of his 33 games overall and Lopez made just 15 quality starts. In three starts vs. the Twins, he was knocked around badly, giving up 20 runs in just 15 IP. 8* Minnesota

10* Texas (4:05 ET): The Rangers prevailed in the season opener last night and as you can probably tell by the 1-0 score, it was a game with little offense. Both they and the Rockies managed only three hits in the contest, which was the first in the Rangers’ new retractable roof stadium. The “old” park in Arlington was known as one of the more “hitter friendly” venues in MLB. It remains to be seen if this new one will be a different story or if last night was simply an aberration.

Texas didn’t even get a hit until the sixth inning last night, but that can be attributed to them facing German Marquez, a pitcher that was sensational on the road last season. This afternoon they’ll face Jon Gray, whose numbers away from home aren’t nearly as good as Marquez’s. Expect the Rangers to score lots more in this game compared to yesterday.

The Rockies’ .230 team batting average on the road last season was MLB’s worst, so last night’s poor performance at the plate shouldn’t come as too big of a surprise. This team was also a horrendous 28-53 on the road in 2019. They’ll face Mike Minor today. Minor was the Rangers’ best pitcher in 2019 as he set a career-high with 14 wins and made the All-Star team. The Rockies have lost 23 of their last 28 road games with a total of 9 or 9.5.  10* Texas

8* Oakland (10:10 ET): Not enough people appreciate what the A’s have accomplished the last two seasons. They won 97 games a year ago as well as 97 the year before that. Both seasons saw them lose the AL Wild Card Game. Over the course of a traditional 162-game season, I do not believe Oakland is capable of staying with hated Houston. But in this truncated 60-game campaign that we’re about to embark on, I do believe that they have a shot at winning the AL West. At the very least, it should be a third straight playoff appearance.

The Angels are hoping for better luck in 2020 after they lost 90 games last season. For the last few years, this franchise has been “Mike Trout and little else.” The shortened season plus some offseason acquisitions have Halos’ fans thinking their team might be ready to contend for the postseason this year, but I’m not convinced (even with Joe Maddon as the new manager). As has been the case these last several seasons, pitching remains suspect in the City of Angels.

LA will start Andrew Heaney in Friday’s opening game. His WHIP was much better on the road than at home for the 2019 season. But he failed to win either start vs. Oakland, both of which were at home. The top three hitters in the A’s lineup all produced 30+ HRs and 90+ RBIs last year while cleanup man Khris Davis led the AL w/ 48 HRs in 2018. Look for starter Frankie Montas to get the job done here as he was a dynamite 12-4 last year (2.63 ERA, 1.115 WHIP) including 4-0 at home (6-1 TSR) and he beat Heaney & the Angels (priced -215!) in his final start. Oakland closed last season on a 37-15 run. 8* Oakland

10* Cincinnati (6:10 ET): Playing in a wide-open National League Central, the Reds are a team many seem to be high on this year. Count me in among the believers. While it remains to be seen whether or not the 60-game season is a help or hindrance to their cause, Cincy was a team due to improve anyway after finishing with only 75 wins in 2019. They were 12 games under .500 despite only being outscored by 10 runs over the full season - a differential that would be indicative of an 80-win club. I think they can win the division this year.

I believe that the Reds will have the best starting pitching of any NL Central team. Getting the baseball here on Opening Day will be Sonny Gray. Gray was 7th in NL Cy Young voting for 2019 as he finished with a 2.82 ERA and 1.084 WHIP. The Reds won 12 of his 16 home starts and in the L10 starts overall, Gray never allowed more than 3 ER. The Reds lineup is improved for this season with the additions of Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos upping the power quotient. 

Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers are NOT a good baseball team. They were outscored by 333 runs last season and won only 47 games. I’d forgotten how bad that run differential was and had to go to multiple sources to confirm it! Matthew Boyd gets the start Friday. While the southpaw did start in 11 of the team’s 47 wins, he seemed to falter a bit down the stretch. This line has been bet down and honestly I don’t understand why. The Tigers were outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road last year. 10* Cincinnati

10* Houston (8:07 ET): Without question, the most pertinent trend of this year's World Series is that the road team has won all five games. Coming in as the biggest WS favorite since '07, the Astros shockingly dropped Games 1 & 2 at home despite having Cole and Verlander on the mound. But perhaps even more shocking is that they were able to come back and take all three games in D.C. I don't see this trend continuing for Game 6 and that's bad news for the Nationals as it would mean their season and the entire MLB season would be over. Yes, I'm calling for the Astros to win the Fall Classic for a second time in three seasons. 

We were denied a second act of vs Scherzer vs. Cole when the former was scratched prior to Game 5. Perhaps it would not have mattered even if Scherzer did pitch. Because Cole threw a "gem," going seven innings and allowing only 1 run on 3 hits. It was 8-1 Astros as, incredibly, they outscored the Nationals 19-3 in the three games in D.C. Houston is 65-24 at home this season. Washington is a good road team, but their confidence must be shaken at this point. They must also figure out a way to beat Verlander twice, something they could not do with Cole. 

Verlander is making his sixth start of the postseason. He's allowed exactly four runs in three of the previous five, which is kind of shocking. The Astros lost all three of those games. But they won the other two (both here at home) and he still has a 2.81 ERA and 0.853 WHIP for the year in 39 starts. His team start record is 26-13. Washington will again have Stephen Strasburg to oppose Verlander. While Strasburg won the 1st go around and has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts overall, I just can't see him and the Nats beating Verlander and the Astros twice, in Houston no less. There's a reason Houston came in as the biggest WS favorites in over a decade. They are that good. Plus, with the DH back in the lineup, their offense should improve. 10* Houston

10* Over Astros/Nationals (8:08 ET): Both World Series games have gone Over thus far. That has to be a shock to many when you consider the caliber of starting pitchers that have taken the mound. But most surprising of all is how Washington was able to hit Houston's ferocious 1-2 combo of Cole & Verlander. The biggest shock of all is that the Nationals are up 2-0 in this series and now they get to face the struggling Zack Greinke at home. Greinke comes into to this "must win" spot for the Astros w/ a 6.43 ERA and 1.429 WHIP this postseason. At the same time, the Nats' Game 3 starts is Anibal Sanchez and he's a downgrade from the likes of Strasburg and Scherzer. Look for the Over to hit for a 3rd straight game in the 2019 World Series.

With the series shifting to D.C. that means pitchers will have to come up to bat. In retrospect, the Nationals getting to use the DH in the first two games was a huge boon to the lineup that we should have seen coming. Howie Kendrick was used in the role both games and did go 2 for 5 w/ one run scored an RBI in Game 2. But he was also hitless in four opportunities in Game 1 and that was still an Over. Washington obviously doesn't NEED a DH to score a lot of runs. During their current eight-game win streak, they've scored 50 runs including an average of more than 5.0 per game in NL parks. For the year, the Nats average 5.6 rpg at home. Of course, the Astros are no slouch offensively either. They average 5.5 runs per game overall and were at 5.0 rpg in NL parks.

Greinke's poor postseason numbers can essentially be traced back to one start, the first one which came against Tampa Bay. He allowed six runs in that start, lasting only 3 2/3 IP. We were willing to write that one off after he went six strong innings against the Yankees in Gm 1 of the LCS. But even though the Astros got the win in his second LCS start, Greinke lasted only 4 1/3 innings. Both short starts came on the road. He's allowed 5 HR's in the playoffs and walked 4 his last time out. Sanchez's two playoff starts have both been good, particularly the Game 1 effort in the NLCS where he was four outs away from a no-hitter. But he still has a 4.10 ERA and 1.307 WHIP at home. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Nationals' last nine home games. 10* Over Astros/Nationals

6* Houston (8:08 ET): Can’t see the Astros losing both games at home. The Nationals pulled the shocking upset in Game 1 by getting to Gerrit Cole for five runs, the most Cole had allowed in a start in five months. As hot as the Nats are right now (they’ve won 7 straight going back to the LDS), Houston easily could have taken the series opener were in not for leaving 11 runners on base. The fact that a 2-0 lead w/ Cole on the mound didn’t stand last night was not something we could have envisioned. Look for the home team to come back and even the series. 

Justin Verlander goes for Houston in Game 2. He’s pitched four times in the postseason, twice in each series. Interestingly, he’s won his first start of both series, only to lose the second both times. He along w/ Cole are the two AL Cy Young front-runners and the idea of a team beating them both in consecutive days seems like it would be a tall order. Like the previous two series, Verlander’s first WS start will come at home. He’s allowed just two runs in 13 ⅔ IP in the two home playoff starts so far and has 2.30 ERA and 0.848 WHIP here for the season. The Astros have gone 14-5 with him on the mound at Minute Maid Park.

Washington again counters with a strong starter of their own as Stephen Strasburg will toe the rubber. Strasburg has been very good in the postseason w/ a 3-0 TSR. He’s been lights out overall for the last month or so, but this just comes down to the fact we can’t see Houston losing B2B home games. As we saw last night, the Nationals’ bullpen remains a bit of a question mark. Houston is 65-23 at home this year and outscores its opponents by two full runs per game here. 6* Houston

6* Houston (8:08 ET): It’s nice to see Washington in the World Series for the first time. Before the season started, we predicted that - coming off an 82-win season - they would be the most improved team in MLB this year. Quite frankly, it was a little disappointing that the Nationals couldn’t beat out the Braves in the NL East during the regular season. But they’ve obviously more than made up for it w/ this run, first eliminating the heavily favored Dodgers, then sweeping the Cardinals. We felt the Nats-Dodgers series was the “real” NLCS so the Nats sweeping St. Louis was not that big of a shock to us (they were, after all, favorites to win that series). 

But for this year’s World Series, Houston comes in as the biggest favorite for any WS since 2007 when the Red Sox faced the Rockies. That series saw the favorite sweep. While the price on the Astros seems high - both for Game 1 and the series - it is justified. This is the best team in baseball and they have the strongest rotation. Plus they have the homefield advantage as well. The only thing working against Houston is the fact they are 1-9 vs. Washington since 2012. But much of that is “ancient history” as the clubs have not met since 2017.

The biggest justification for Houston being such a large ML favorite for Game 1 is them having Gerrit Cole starting. They are 16-0 in Cole’s previous 16 starts and he hasn’t lost a decision since May 22nd! Here in the playoffs, Cole is 3-0 w/ a 0.40 ERA and 0.794 WHIP. The Astros are 17-2 in Cole’s 19 starts at home this season. Not needing him for a second time in the ALCS was huge after he had to start two games in the LDS. Max Scherzer is a former Cy Young winner himself and one of the game’s best pitchers. But this is the rare instance of him NOT being the better pitcher in a head to head matchup. Remember Washington has the inferior bullpen as well. 6* Houston

9* Run Line NY Yankees (7:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are taking the Yankees +1.5. Last night, we grabbed the Astros +1.5, seeing tremendous value w/ a team that could certainly win the game "outright." Well, win is exactly what the Astros did, 7-3 and now the Yankees are on the verge of elimination. The Yanks' chances of winning this series aren't looking too good as Games 6 and 7 (if necessary) will be played in Houston. But Game 5 is still at home and we think they can stay alive, at least for another day. The Yankees losing three in a row at home would be pretty shocking.

Tonight's pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2, won by Justin Verlander and Houston. Verlander went 6 2/3 innings, allowing just two runs on five hits, as his TSR for the year moved to 26-11. James Paxton lasted only 2 1/3 innings as the Game 2 starter for the Yankees as it was the first time since July that they'd lost a game Paxton had started. (Had been 12-0 the previous 12). Though Verlander was clearly superior to Paxton in Game 2, it should be pointed out that the Astros still won the game by only one run. Such a result would be just fine by us tonight given we're playing the run line. 

It should be noted that Verlander is not infallible. He did lose one postseason start and it was on the road. It was his second start of the series as well as Tampa Bay got to him for four runs in Game 4 of the LDS. Verlander was done after just 3 2/3 IP. You have to figure the Yankees' offense is going to produce more after a disastrous Game 4 where they went 0 for 7 w/ RISP and stranded 10 runners. Four errors didn't help matters either. The Yankees are just 4 for 27 w/ RISP in the series, stranding 33 runners. This was MLB's highest scoring offense during the regular season. With a team this talented and a pitcher the caliber of Paxton set to start, getting a +1.5 at home is too good to pass up. This is just the 5th time in the last three seasons that NY is a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. They are 59-26 at home this year. 9* Run Line NY Yankees

10* Over Astros/Yankees (8:08 ET): All three previous games in this series have stayed Under, but it's only a matter of time before BOTH offenses get going at the same time. The Yankees' lineup produced some historic numbers in the regular season, most notably belting 300+ HR's (which had NEVER been done before). They scored the most runs in all of baseball (943), averaging 5.8 per game. After scoring 30 times in their first four playoff games (all wins), they've been held to only three in the last two (both losses). But tonight they're facing Zack Greinke, who has struggled so far this postseason and there's likely an "offensive awakening" for the team wearing pinstripes. Take the Over. 

Also expect Houston to see its offensive numbers start to go up as this series wears on. Despite scoring only seven runs in the three games so far, they lead the series 2-1, largely thanks to Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. But this lineup wasn't far behind the league-leading Yankees in the regular season (3rd in runs scored) and comes in averaging 5.6 rpg. In the seven regular season meetings w/ the Yankees, the Over went 5-2. Now they do have to face Masahiro Tanaka tonight and his 1.32 career postseason ERA ranks 3rd all-time. He shut the Astros out in Game 1, but expect better success for them here in Game 4. 

This is a rematch of the pitching matchup from Game 1 w/ Greinke taking on Tanaka. As mentioned above, Greinke has struggled so far in the postseason, allowing a total of nine runs in 9 2/3 IP. He's also given up five home runs. Uncharacteristic, but he did have some bad starts in the regular season. Greinke has faced the Yankees three times this year and has a 2.89 ERA in those games. But his career ERA vs. NY is 5.05. A big key for the Astros here will be late in the game. The Yankees' bullpen has NOT performed up to par in this series, yet teams hit .309 against Tanaka this year his third time through the lineup. So a decision will have to be made in the latter innings and either way it could work to Houston's advantage. The Over is 7-3 in the Yankees' L10 playoff home games. 10* Over Astros/Yankees

7* Run Line Houston (8:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Astros +1.5. This is a rematch of the pitching matchup from Game 1 w/ Zack Greinke taking on Masahiro Tanaka. The first time around saw Tanaka and the Yankees prevail 7-0. It would be easy to look at that final score and say "Greinke struggled again," but that's not really the case. He gave up three runs in six innings, which by definition is a quality start. Now the five home runs he's allowed in two playoff starts is a bit alarming. But the opportunity to get Greinke +1.5, something that happened only FIVE times during the regular season, seems too good to pass up.

This will actually be Greinke's third time going head to head w/ Tanaka in 2019. He and the Astros have come out on the losing end of the previous two, which includes a July 31st matchup here at Yankee Stadium. That was one of the five times in the regular season you could have taken Greinke +1.5 as  he was a dog on the money line. The Astros lost 7-5. But the three previous times you would have cashed a winning ticket. Greinke didn't pitch poorly in that July 31st start either, allowing just two runs in five innings. In fact, in three starts vs. the Yankees this season, Greinke has allowed just six runs in 18 2/3 IP (beat them back on April 30th). Greinke's third time facing Tanaka could be the charm. 

We came into this series believing the Astros were the better team and here they are w/ a 2-1 series lead. Yesterday's rainout will allow for Houston to trot out its three stud starters all in a row again for Games 4 through 6, if need be. There seems to be a mentality that the Yankees "have to have" this one as Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are looming. That's probably true, especially because a loss tonight puts the Yanks in a 3-1 hole. But that doesn't mean they WILL win. At no point this year has Houston lost three straight Greinke starts all by more than one run. Five of the 14 times they lost w/ him starting this year have been one-run games. We're willing to bank the Astros do no worse than a one-run loss here. 7* Run Line Houston (+1.5)

analysis 10* Houston (4:05 ET): The Astros have a luxury no other team has and that's three aces in the starting rotation. While Zack Greinke has started twice and failed this postseason, it's been just the opposite for Cy Young contender Gerrit Cole, who was 2 for 2 in the LDS vs. Tampa Bay. Cole started Games 2 & 5 of that series and allowed just ONE run in 15 2/3 IP. This is nothing new for him as his TSR the L15 starts is 15-0 and he hasn't actually lost a decision since right before Memorial Day. It's been just ridiculous as Cole has 11 straight outings w/ 10+ K's and in the last seven he has an ERA of 0.87 and a WHIP of 0.60. No way we're betting against him, even in Yankee Stadium. We like the Astros in this series anyway. 

If Cole doesn't win the Cy Young, it will be teammate Justin Verlander that does. Verlander started in the Astros' Game 2 victory and held the Yankees in check, allowing just two runs in 6 2/3 innings. Of course, it took 11 innings for Houston to win the game, but win they did (by score of 3-2) thanks to Carlos Correa's walkoff HR. Cole has faced the Yankees only one time in 2019 and it was back in April. He allowed 3 runs in 7 IP and the Astros got the 6-3 win. If you're worried about him having to pitch at Yankee Stadium, don't be. Surprisingly, the Yankees average FEWER runs per game at home than they do on the road. 

The Astros have won 80% of Cole's starts this year, which is really impressive when you consider he's started 35 times. The Yankees have won 75% of Luis Severino's starts, but he's only started four times. Severino, the Game 3 starter, threw four shutout innings against the Twins in the LDS. He's yet to go more than 5 innings this year. Like Game 2 was, this will be another instance of the Yankees turning to the bullpen as needed while the Astros will ride their starter. As impressive as the Yankees' bullpen (and offense) can be, we still trust Cole more. The Astros are 21-5 this season when playing w/ a day off. Look for them to go up 2-1 in the series. 10* Houston

6* Run Line St. Louis (7:38 ET): Please note this is a run line play where we are backing the Cardinals +1.5. A starter the caliber of Jack Flaherty getting 1.5 runs seems like a nice deal even having to lay this much juice. Ironically, we took the +1.5 against Flaherty when he started Game 2 of the LDS vs. Atlanta. Though he pitched well in that game, giving up only three runs in seven innings, the Cardinals lost 3-0. But Flaherty didn't even need to pitch well in his 2nd LDS start. That's because by the time he threw his first pitch, he had been handed a historic 10-0 lead! That was Game 5, which the Cards went onto win 13-1. For the record, Flaherty still did his part by giving up just one run and four hits in six innings. We'll back him here via the run line. 

Flaherty has certainly done his part down the stretch for St. Louis. He's given them 10 consecutive quality outings. During that time, he's allowed just 11 runs and 37 hits w/ 85 K's (only 12 walks). It's not often you get the opportunity to take a pitcher of this caliber +1.5. Now Flaherty is being opposed by Stephen Strasburg, who is in the midst of his own dominant stretch. But Flaherty does have a lower ERA and WHIP than Strasburg over the course of the entire season. Washington was the favorite coming into the series and is obviously now in an even stronger position after taking the first two games in St. Louis. Were the Nats to lose here, we'd strongly consider backing them in Game 4. But for Game 3, we're willing to say they won't win by more than one run. 

This is the second time St. Louis has lost B2B games in these playoffs. The first time was Games 2 & 3 vs. Atlanta. We then backed them in Game 4, which they won in extra innings. They've lost three in row just twice since the All-Star Break and the only team to beat them three in a row was the Dodgers (all in LA). We agree w/ the notion of Washington being favored in this series, but Flaherty +1.5 is too good to pass up. Obviously, the Cardinals are going to have to discover some offense. Assuming they do, advantages in fielding and in the bullpen should be enough to carry them to a Game 3 victory. At the very least, they'll lose by only one run. By the way, Washington has scored only five runs in two games. 6* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5)

10* Houston (8:08 ET): Homefield advantage certainly wasn't enough to save the Astros last night as they fell 7-0 to the Yankees here at Minute Maid Park. In our Game 1 analysis, we'd hyped that advantage as being pretty significant, but Houston simply could not put anything together at the plate (just three hits for the game) and the Yankees poured it on late. Thankfully, another advantage the Astros have is their tremendous starting pitching. They can now turn to Justin Verlander for Game 2, which of course is still at home. We don't see the Astros suffering the same fate as the Cardinals over the NLCS, that being losing both games at home. Home team bounces back tonight.

Verlander is one of the co-favorites for the AL Cy Young, along w/ teammate Gerrit Cole (who is slated to go in Game 3). So despite the disappointment of losing Game 1, the Astros are by no means "down and out." Verlander is 22-7 this season (36 starts) w/ a 2.66 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He started twice in the LDS vs. Tampa Bay and was a -230 favorite both times. Unfortunately, he lost the second time, which was on the road. He lasted only 3 2/3 IP and gave up four runs. He was on short rest too. But we see him bouncing back from that. In Game 1 of the LDS, here at home, Verlander tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball. Two years ago in the ALCS, Verlander won both of his starts against the Yankees and posted a 0.56 ERA. He's made six career postseason starts vs. the Yankes and never lost one (4-0), posting a 2.33 ERA w/ 41 K's. 

By the way, last night was just the 5th time all season that the Astros were shutout and first since June. They're 3-1 off the previous four, allowing a total of just six runs in those games. They are also still 63-22 at home this year. The Yankees will turn to James Paxton, who has a 12-0 TSR since the start of August. But despite that tremendous amount of team success, Paxton is in no way as dominant as Verlander, at least over the long-term. On the road, he has a 4.33 ERA and 1.403 WHIP. His lone LDS start in the sweep of the Twins came at home. Paxton is accustomed to pitching in this ballpark due to his time spent in Seattle, but he also allowed five runs in just 4 IP his lone appearance here w/ the Yankees (that was back in April). All signs point to the Astros bouncing back tonight. 10* Houston

8* Houston (8:08 ET): So we're pretty firm on the notion that the Astros are the better team here. That it took them five games to eliminate the pesky Rays probably is a source of line value that we can use to our advantage in ALCS Game 1. Houston had a run differential of +280 in the regular season, baseball's best, while the Yankees were third at +203 (Dodgers were 2nd and we know what happened to them). The homefield advantage is going to be crucial in this series as the Astros are now 63-21 at Minute Maid Park this season (won all 3 LDS games here). We like Houston a lot in Game 1. 

The Yankees swept their way through the LDS, continuing a shocking level of head to head mastery over the Twins. But the Astros aren't the Twins. Note that the Yankees' only visit to Minute Maid this season came all the way back in April and they got swept in that three-game series. Masahiro Tanaka will get the starting nod for Game 1 and while he's pitched well of late, his 6.16 road ERA simply cannot be ignored. Both teams have strong lineups, but as I'll get into in a moment, the Astros are better suited to limit the damage the opponent does offensively due to their incredible starting rotation. 

Getting back to the homefield advantage, when these teams faced off two years ago in the ALCS, the home team won all seven games. So, yes, homefield advantage is very important. Zack Greinke, the Game 1 starter for the Astros, knows this. He shockingly struggled in Tampa Bay, the only time we saw him in that series. Greinke gave up six runs, including 3 HR's, in just 3 2/3 IP as the Astros lost Game 3 by a score of 10-3. That won't happen again here at home. Greinke is 8-1 in 15 home starts this year (11-4 TSR) w/ a 1.048 WHIP. He faced the Yankees twice during the regular season and held them to three runs on seven hits in 12 2/3 IP. The Yankees are just 3-10 their L13 playoff road games and 2-12 their L14 LCS road games. 8* Houston

10* Under Nationals/Cardinals (8:08 ET): Not sure anyone was expecting this to be the NLCS matchup. Washington's involvement is especially surprising considering they had to get through the Dodgers and were down 3-0 in Game 5 of that LDS. But they took advantage of some Dave Roberts' foolishness and now are the favorites to represent the Senior Circuit in the World Series. Meanwhile, there was little drama in St. Louis' own Game 5 victory on Wednesday as it was basically "over before it started," thanks to a record-setting 10-run inning against the Braves. I don't think we'll be seeing anything like that again anytime soon and for Game 1 of the NLCS we think the situation calls for an Under. 

Anibal Sanchez will be on the bump Friday for the Nationals. He pitched Game 3 against the Dodgers and while the Nats lost that game 10-4, the final score was misleading from Sanchez's perspective. He allowed only 1 run (on 4 hits) in 5 IP and had 9 K's. He's now allowed 3 ER or fewer in seven of his past eight starts. His last five have seen him give up only 8 ER in 31 IP w/ just 23 hits allowed. Sanchez faced the Cardinals one time this year and allowed three runs in five innings. Needless to say, he won't be subjected to any kind of historical performance like the Cards had in Atlanta Wednesday. Not that they needed to score any more after that 1st inning, but St. Louis didn't score at all after the 3rd inning in that game with just four hits over the final six frames. They had 13 runs despite only 11 hits and the 1st inning saw them get 10 on just five hits. Despite being 2-4 his career vs. the Redbirds, Sanchez has a 3.44 ERA in eight starts against them. His numbers have also been better on the road this season.

Having homefield advantage in the NLCS is not something St. Louis expected (I think everyone expected LA to be here), but they'll gladly take it. Game 1 starter Miles Mikolas has definitely pitched better at home this year w/ a 3.01 ERA and 1.045 WHIP here (compared to 5.20 and 1.381 on the road). Like Sanchez, Mikolas also allowed just 1 run in 5 IP in his lone LDS start (on the road) plus he added a scoreless inning of relief. During the regular season, the Dodgers (3.4 per game) were the only team in baseball to allow fewer runs at home than the Cardinals (3.6). Washington was obviously very lucky to score seven times in the elimination game Wednesday as they'd been shutout for the first five innings and had just one run heading into the dramatic eighth. Mikolas allowed only 4 runs in 12 IP vs. Washington in two starts during the regular season. His last seven starts have produced a 2.88 ERA and 1.082 WHIP.  This should be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Nationals/Cardinals

8* Houston Run Line (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where we are backing the Astros -1.5. Winning a playoff baseball game by multiple runs isn't necessarily easy to do, but Houston w/ Gerrit Cole on the mound has been the closest thing to an automatic bet this year, thus we're willing to back the Astros at the reduced price that requires them to win this game by at least two runs. Since July 17th, the team is 14-0 in Cole starts, including a 3-1 victory in Game 2 of this series when he pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings and set a franchise record w/ 15 K's in a postseason game. Look for Houston to advance - and win Game 5 by at least 2 runs. 

Not only are the Astros a perfect 14-0 in Cole's last 14 starts, the pitcher himself has not lost a decision going all the way back to May 22nd! For those of you who forgot their calendars this morning, that was almost five months (and 23 starts!) ago. The numbers are almost unreal w/ Cole posting a 0.91 ERA and 0.644 WHIP his last seven starts and a 2.46 ERA and 0.779 WHIP this season at home. The team is 27-7 w/ Cole on the mound this year, including 16-2 here at Minute Maid Park. Only five of those 27 wins have been by one run. By the way, the Astros won both Games 1 & 2 by multiple runs, raising their home record this year to 62-21. On average, they are outscoring teams by 2.1 rpg at home. 

Tampa Bay has wisely adopted an "underdog strategy" for this series that involves heavy reliance on their bullpen. Eight Rays' pitchers have worked at least three innings in the series. This plays to the team's strength anyways as they have a very good bullpen. But the bottom line is they aren't quite as stingy on the road as they are at home (where both wins in this series have come). Tyler Glasnow will start Game 5 and he lasted just 4 1/3 IP in his Game 1 start, giving up two runs and a homer. The Rays ended up losing 6-2. We saw one of the World Series favorites (Dodgers) drop out yesterday, we can't envision the top AL team suffering the same fate. 8* Run Line Houston (-1.5) 

10* LA Dodgers (8:37 ET): A lot of folks might be surprised that this particular LDS has made it to a Game 5. Not us. We've actually steered clear of the series as we had these rated as the top two NL teams coming into the playoffs. Washington definitely would have been favored to win a series against either Atlanta and St. Louis. But instead they were matched up with the Dodgers, whose 106 wins were second most in baseball. LA came in as the overwhelming favorite to represent the Senior Circuit in the World Series. Faced with elimination, we're willing to bank on them advancing here. This is a team that is 60-23 at home this year while outscoring opponents by 2.1 rpg here. 

Getting the baseball for the Dodgers here is Walker Buehler. He started Game 1 and got the win by going six innings w/o allowing a run. He only gave up one hit! It was the fifth time in his L10 starts that Buehler didn't give up a run. Important is that three of those five were here at Chavez Ravine. For the year, Buehler is 7-1 in 15 home starts (11-4 TSR) w/ a 2.68 ERA and 0.863 WHIP. He has experience pitching in these kind of situations. In the Dodgers' playoff run last year, he won both a one-game playoff to decide the NL West and then later Game 7 of the NLCS. He allowed just one run (10 2/3 IP) in those two games, both of which were at home. 

Stephen Strasburg opposes Buehler here. He too has tasted victory in this series as he won Game 2 for the Nats by giving up just one run and three hits in 6 IP. It was the ninth consecutive start for Strasburg where he allowed 3 ER or less. That doesn't even include his relief appearance in the Wild Card Game vs. Milwaukee. Let's not forget the one real weakness of this Nationals team - the bullpen. Unless Strasburg can somehow go the distance (unlikely seeing as he hasn't done it once this season), the Nats will have to turn to that 'pen and Max Scherzer just pitched Game 4. The Dodgers have the luxury of using Clayton Kershaw here. The Dodgers are 38-19 off a loss and 16-5 w/ day off. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Minnesota Run Line (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are backing the Twins at +1.5. For Minnesota, the first two games of this series have to be a horrific sense of deja vu as they've now dropped a MLB record 15 consecutive postseason contests, 12 of those losses coming against the Yankees. They were spotted an early 2-0 lead in Game 1, but that didn't hold in an eventual 10-4 loss. They never really stood a chance in Game 2 as the decision to start a rookie (Randy Dobnak) turned out to be a poor one as they were down big early and lost 8-2. But, at home for the 1st time in the series, we think thinks finally turn out differently for the Twins. Well, they'll at least do no worse than a one-run loss in Game 3. 

Jake Odorizzi was originally set to start Game 2 for the Twins, but manager Rocco Baldelli elected to go w/ Dobnak instead. That decision probably had to do w/ the fact Odorizzi is largely a fly-ball pitcher and that doesn't play well at Yankee Stadium. But here at Target Field, Odorizzi should pitch well. He certainly pitched well down the stretch, allowing 3 ER or fewer in his L10 starts. He closed his regular season by allowing just one run and two hits on September 24th. Granted, that was against Detroit. Odorizzi faced the Yankees twice in the regular season and the results couldn't have been more different as he had his worst outing of the year and threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball. We're willing to bank it's going to be much closer to the latter tonight.

The Yankees go w/ Luis Severino as they look to close out this series. He only started three games in the regular season because of injury and we view him as a big question mark coming into the postseason. He's worked just 12 innings total. The Twins were 44-18 in the regular season off a loss, but now they've dropped three in a row (dating back to reg season finale) for the 3rd time all year. At no point in the year did they lose three in a row to the same opponent! We get the sense that they are going to put EVERYTHING into this game (how could they not?) as their season and run of postseason infamy are both othe line. The Yankees have a losing record this year as ML road favorites of -125 to -175. 10* Minnesota Run Line (+1.5)

8* St. Louis (3:05 ET): While Atlanta was being coy about who would be its Game 4 starters, St. Louis knew all along who they'd be sending to the mound in this must-win situation. Dakota Hudson will be the one to get the baseball w/ the season on the line and that's something we like as Hudson has not only been on fire for months now (14-4 since May 18th), he has also been lights out here at home, going 9-2 w/ a 2.75 ERA in 17 starts (13-4 TSR). Overall, the Cardinals pitching staff has performed much better at home this year and we just can't see Atlanta coming in and taking both games at Busch Stadium. Look for the home team to stay alive and win Game 4. 

Hudson has not pitched since September 27th when he tossed five shutout innings in a win over the Cubs. He had 10 strikeouts in that game (a season-high), which came here at home. It was also the fifth time in his last nine starts that Hudson did not allow a single earned run. Only once in that stretch has he allowed more than 3 ER and that was when he allowed four to the Reds on 8.31. There had been some thought to using Hudson in a relief role earlier in the series, but circumstances never dictated that actually taking place. Obviously, last night was a horrible loss for the Redbirds as Atlanta scored three times in top of the ninth. That was a taste of their own medicine after their own late rally to win Game 1. We don't think Hudson should have much trouble shutting down a Braves lineup that had scored only three runs in 17 innings before last night's rally. 

So after making us wait, Atlanta has elected to go with Dallas Keuchel as their Game 3 starter. It was either going to be him or Julio Teheran and Teheran's recent efforts (not good) are probably what led to Keuchel getting the call instead. The thing is Keuchel will be working on just three days' rest. He started Game 1 and while he allowed just the one run in 5 IP, he didn't have ANY strikeouts! The Braves are only 10-10 in his 20 starts for them and his number get much worse on the road where his ERA is 5.89 and his WHIP is 1.629. Look for this series to head back to Atlanta for a Game 5. 8* St. Louis

10* Under Twins/Yankees (5:07 ET): The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Twins' postseason horror show continued in Game 1 as they lost yet again to the Yankees. The franchise has now dropped a MLB-record 14 consecutive contests, 11 of those losses coming at the hands of the Yankees. Having played the run line last night (Twins +1.5), we were actually feeling pretty good about the game early. But not even getting spotted an early 2-0 lead was enough as they went down 10-4. In a somewhat surprising move, Minnesota is going with rookie Randy Dobnak as their Game 2 starter in lieu of Jake Odorizzi. Perhaps equally surprising is that we'll be going w/ the Under, another bet we lost in Game 1. Though it was irrelevant w/ New York scoring 10 runs last night, we're getting a better number tonight. 

Dobnak made five starts in the regular season, all in September. Four of them wound up staying Under the total. He was not asked to go long in the first two, but the last three have seen him allow just four runs (two unearned) in 14 1/3 IP. He ended up with a 1.86 ERA and 0.931 WHIP. He has yet to allow a single home run, which is key when pitching in this ballpark. The Yankees have also never faced Dobnak before, which is an advantage for the pitcher. As for the Twins' hitting, three of their four runs yday came via the home run. While that's been their biggest offensive weapon this year, it's an unsustainable way to score in the playoffs. They went 1 for 9 w/ RISP last night. 

The Yankees go w/ Masahiro Tanaka and history suggests he'll come up big in this spot. He has a 1.50 ERA in five career postseason starts and is a perfect 5-0 lifetime (in five starts) vs. Minnesota w/ a 2.27 ERA. Tanaka was somewhat inconsistent in the regular season, but was at his best here at home where he had a 3.10 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 16 outings. His last start came back on September 19th and he threw seven strong innings against the Angels, allowing just one run on four hits. Interestingly, the Yankees do score fewer runs per game at home than on the road. They also are hitting just .218 as a team the L7 games. It's definitely "going against the grain," but we're on the Under in Game 2.  10* Under Twins/Yankees

10* Run Line Minnesota (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are backing the Twins +1.5. From how we look at things, there are a couple of reasons why Minnesota would be this large of an underdog for Game 1. None of them have to do w/ anything you will see play out on the field Friday. Well, you'll see the Yankee name on the front of the jerseys and that alone has a lot to do w/ how the marketplace reacts. But such a reaction is often irrational and based merely on "reputation." Speaking of reputation, the Twins don't have a good one in the postseason, especially when matched up w/ the Yankees. From 2004-2010, they lost four LDS to the Yankees and overall have lost 13 consecutive playoff games. But it's 2019 and we have reason to believe this time will be a little different for the Twins. 

Let's start w/ their record-setting lineup, which had FIVE players hit at least 30 home runs. No other lineup in baseball history can claim that. Yes, the Yankees also ended up hitting more than 300 HR's total, something no other team had ever done, but the Twins finished w/ ONE more on the year. An interesting tidbit w/ this Twins offense is that it performs better on the road. They averaged 6.1 runs per game on the road, the highest such average in all of MLB. That resulted in them winning 55 regular season games on the road, which was easily the most. 

Jose Berrios starts Game 1 for the Twins. He may not have been dominant down the stretch, but he was certainly effective and ended up having a good year. He has 26 strikeouts in his last 26 1/3 IP. The Yankees did not face him in any of the six regular season meetings. The one weak spot w/ this Yankees team is the starting rotation. Though Game 1 starter James Paxton has a perfect 11-0 TSR since the beginning of August, he did leave his last start w/ a sore muscle. We think Paxton could be "due" for a loss here. Interestingly, the Yankees were ML home favorites in the -175 to -250 range 22 times in the regular season and lost 10 of those games. The Twins lost the regular season finale, but are 44-18 off a loss. They do no worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. 10* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

10* Under Twins/Yankees (7:07 ET): We know these teams can score, but this is the postseason when runs tend to be a bit more scarce. Three of the four games the last two days have stayed Under w/ a late inning barrage between the Cardinals and Braves accounting for the only exception. This LDS does feature the only two teams in MLB history to hit 300+ home runs in a season. Not surprisingly, the public has decided to load up on the Over. Yet interestingly, the O/U line hasn't gone up and in some shops it has actually gone DOWN. Unless the home run ball is even more plentiful than usual, we look for Game 1 of Twins-Yankees to be a suprising Under. 

Jose Berrios starts Game 1 for the Twins. He may not have been insanely dominant down the stretch, but he was certainly effective and ended up having a good year. He has 26 strikeouts in his last 26 1/3 IP. He allowed only nine runs in that stretch, five of them coming in one game, so he was very good in the other three. There were only five starts all season where Berrios allowed more than 4 ER. Berrios final start of the regular season saw him give up only two runs in 6 IP, giving him a 4-1 Under mark in the month of September. The Yankees did not see Berrios in any of their six regular season matchups with the Twins.

James Paxton will go for the Yankees in Game 1, looking to extend a team start record of 11-0 that dates back to the start of August. Paxton has picked up the win in 10 of those 11 starts, the exception being his last time out when he had to exit after just one inning due to a sore muscle. He is 3-1 w/ a 2.27 ERA in six career starts vs. Minnesota. Though the Twins lineup did post big numbers during the regular season, a lot of that came at the expense of bad teams, particularly the three within their division (KC, Chicago, Detroit). The Yankees actually average fewer runs per game at home than they do on the road. 10* Under Twins/Yankees

8* Run Line Atlanta (4:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are backing Atlanta +1.5. The Braves lost Game 1, 7-6, which is costly as it was a home game. It was their first blown lead of 2+ runs in the eighth inning or later in the postseason since 2005. Now they've got to face Jack Flaherty, who has been as lights out as any pitcher in baseball in the second half. But if there's one "saving grace" for the Braves, it's that Game 2 is still in Atlanta. Obviously, dropping the first two games at home in a five-game series is basically a death knell. But fortunately for Atlanta, Flaherty hasn't been as effective on the road this year. The Cardinals are just 8-9 in his 17 road starts. Look for the Braves to do no worse here than a one-run loss. 

The Braves had a 3-1 lead entering the top of the 8th yday and seemed poised to take Game 1. But they allowed the Cardinals to score six times in the final two frames, including four in the 9th. They then put forth their own rally, scoring two in the bottom of the ninth, but it wasn't enough. Of course, if they were to come up one run shy again today, that's okay given how we're playing the game. If you're looking for motivation here, Atlanta has now dropped nine straight postseason games, which is one away from tying the MLB record set by the Cubs. They've also lost nine straight postseason series going back to 2001. Look for an "all out effort" in Game 2 Friday afternoon. 

It would be silly to run through Flaherty's exploit as that would only raise apprehension about playing against the Cardinals starter today. However, what about the Braves starter for Game 2, Mike Foltynewicz? He's been every bit as good as Flaherty recently. Over his last three starts, Foltynewicz has a 2.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP. He's allowed just five ER his L5 starts, the exact same number as Flaherty, though in four fewer IP. But the bottom line is that w/ Atlanta in full desperation mode, getting them +1.5 at home is a value too great to pass up.  8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

10* Washington (8:08 ET): This is the matchup we wanted for the National League's Wild Card Game and we got it as the 93-69 Nationals host the 89-73 Brewers. While the difference in wins between the two teams may be quite small, the gap in run differential is massive. A case could be made that Washington (+149 run diff) is as strong as any team as any team in the playoffs save for the three favorites (Astros, Dodgers, Yankees). In our view, they are definitely the 2nd best team in the National League. Meanwhile, Milwaukee (+3 run diff) is easily the weakest team, not just in the NL half of the draw, but of all playoff teams. You've got to "tip your cap" to the way the Brew Crew finished the season (18-5 L23 games), especially in light of the injury to Christian Yelich. But they faced a lot of bad teams down the stretch as only one was a fellow playoff team and only two were above .500. They are very clearly the inferior team in this matchup and we'll play accordingly. 

There were 14 teams in baseball that finished w/ a better YTD run differential than Milwaukee, including non-playoff teams like the Indians, Red Sox, Cubs and Mets. You have to remember that they were in the negative until the final week of the season.  Not only is Yelich lost the rest of the way, but both Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun are operating at less than 100 percent. Also, it may be that the Brewers have run out of gas. Three of their five losses since Labor Day came in the final reg season series as they were swept in Colorado. Before you go writing those results off, remember that winning the division (NL Central) was still in play for Milwaukee and that would have meant avoiding this one-game scenario entirely. It also points to another issue w/ the team and that it that they have a losing road record on the year. The Brewers may have swept the Nats in an early season series at Miller Park, but they dropped two of three here in D.C. and in two of the games Washington scored at least 15 runs. Washington went 51-30 at home in the regular season while averaging 5.6 runs per game. 

Pitching is obviously key in the playoffs, especially in this one-game scenario. A traditional outlook on pitching would seem to indicate a massive edge for Washington in this matchup. They turn to Max Scherzer Tuesday. Was 2019 Scherzer's best year? Hardly. But he still turned in a 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, both of which ranked in the top six among qualified NL starters. He also had 243 strikeouts in 172 1/3 IP. Washington's bullpen is a problem long-term, but one that will be mitigated here by the fact manager Dave Martinez has already said he will turn to Stephen Strasburg, Pat Corbin or both, in relief, if need be. Strasburg and Corbin both join Scherzer in the top 10 in ERA among NL starters as well as hits allowed per nine innings and having 230+ strikeouts. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is going to use Brandon Woodruff as their starter here. Woodruff has made only two starts since July, not allowing a run in either, but both times he exited after just two innings. So don't look too much into his 18-4 TSR. Milwaukee does have an outstanding bullpen, but if they don't have the lead, that won't matter. The Nationals scored over 100 more runs than Milwaukee did in the regular season. Both Scherzer and Woodruff made one regular season start against the team they oppose here. Both were effective in them. But Scherzer remains the more "known" commodity and thus he's the one we're gravitating towards. By the way, the Nats have won their last eight games. 10* Washington

10* Under Braves/Mets (7:10 ET): The Braves are jusrt getting ready for the playoffs as they long ago clinched the NL East and will have home field advantage in the LDS over whomever (Cardinals or Brewers) wins the Central. I have to admit that we were wrong about the Braves this year as we thought they'd regress after an 18-win jump in 2018. Not only was there no regression here, the team improved its win total from last year. They've had some good fortune in doing so, going 28-15 in one-run games as well as 11-5 in extra innings. The Braves we'll see tonight, however, will hardly be representative of what we've seen throughout the year or what we'll be seeing in the playoffs. I'm speaking of the offense, which scored only two runs in last night's loss to the Mets.

The Mets were a team we had improving in 2019 and that's what they did. Now said improvement wasn't to the degree Mets' fans had hoped, but it was always going to be difficult to make the playoffs in a tough division. It also didn't help that they started the season in somewhat of a large hole as they were just 40-51 coming out of the All-Star Break. But the second half has seen them go 44-25, which they hope can carryover into next season. Mets' pitching has certainly done its job down the stretch, not giving up more than four runs in 9 of the last 10 games. We're going to be on the Under here. 

Earlier I mentioned that the Braves offense we see tonight isn't exactly representative of what we've seen most of this year. Atlanta is averaging 5.3 rpg, but is resting Ronald Acuna Jr in this series and Freddie Freeman (went 0 for 5 last night) isn't 100% either. That's good news for Mets' starter Steven Matz, who has endured a bit of a rough stretch lately. But Matz had a 3.84 ERA prior to his L2 starts, which is rather respectable, and he's 5-2 w/ a 3.32 ERA in 12 career starts vs. the Braves. He'll be opposed by Mike Foltynewicz, who is having himself a great September w/ a 0.69 ERA in four starts. He's allowed just two runs and 12 hits in 26 IP and the team has gone 4-0. Look for another low-scoring game like last night. 10* Under Braves/Mets

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): This won't be the first time we've made the case that the D'backs have played better than their record, but it might be the last as their season is nearing the finish line. For much of the year, the D'backs sported a run differential that was comparable to the other NL playoff contenders. Several of those teams have since increased their differentials while Arizona's has remained the same. But consider that Milwaukee (who made the playoffs) has a YTD run differential of just +9 (despite winning 89 games). Arizona has 82 wins but has outscored its opponents by 65 runs this season. 

San Diego has been outscored by 102 runs in 2019. They've also lost three straight coming into Friday. The signing of Manny Machado in the offseason deluded some into thinking the Padres might be a playoff contender in '19, but we never bought that. They just made a managerial change with Rod Barajas replacing Andy Green. The team has gone 1-5 under Barajas as they were just swept at home by the Dodgers. Overall, the club has dropped 12 of its last 14 games and they've also lost five of six games against Arizona this month. The offense has scored more than four runs just one time in the L10 games. 

Arizona just took two of three from a St. Louis team trying to win its division, so they haven't given up on the season. While just 8-8 vs. San Diego on the year, they've outscored the Padres 80-57 in those games, so the WL record "should" be a whole lot better. Taylor Clarke will be the starter for Friday's opener. Despite not having started a game in over a month, Clarke is actually the most profitable starter in the Arizona rotation. He'll be opposed by Eddie Lauer, who has a 6.27 ERA on the road. Lauer pitched reasonably well against the D'backs last weekend, giving up two runs in six innings, but the Padres still lost the game 9-0. He isn't likely to be as effective here at Chase Field. Another edge for the hosts is they had Thursday off (Padres didn't). The D'backs are 14-5 after an off-day. 10* Arizona

7* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): This is probably less of an endoresement on the Phillies and more a fade of the Marlins at a decent price. After all, the Phils have lost six straight heading into tonight. They were just swept in a five-game series by the Nats (which included a doubleheader Tuesday). Their playoff chances were already slim heading into that series, but now they are completely dead as the NL postseason field is set. But the Phils still can finish w/ a winning record this season - if they can sweep the last place Marlins, who are 56-103 and have been outscored by 187 runs. We like the home team to pick up an easy win here.

Miami, as expected, has been the National League's worst team - by a comfortable margin - all season. Every other team in the Senior Circuit could still end up w/ at least 70 wins. The Marlins won't win 60. They have been dreadful offensively, scoring only 604 runs in 159 games. The next fewest runs scored by any NL team is 674. All but three teams have scored at least 143 runs more than Miami. Can't say we love their starter for Friday's game either. Pablo Lopez has a 7-13 TSR on the year, including 2-7 on the road where he has an ERA of 7.27. Back in April, Lopez pitched here in the City of Brotherly Love and gave up four runs in 5 2/3 IP. Miami is off a win here as they rallied to beat the Mets 4-2 yday. But they're just 20-35 after a win for the season. 

The Phillies' six-game losing streak has them below .500 for the first time all year. A return home w/ a chance to finish w/ a winning record should provide some motivation, if for no other reason than to silence the fanbase. They'll send Vince Velasquez out tonight. He had won three straight decisions before running into Cleveland on Sunday. The Phillies lost that game 10-1 w/ Velasquez allowing four of the runs, but three were unearned. This will be Velasquez's first time starting at home in a month. In fact, he's made only two starts at home since the beginning of August. The team won both. We're a little surprised that the Phils have a losing record vs. Miami this year (7-9). Look for that to be rectified here. 7* Philadelphia

10* Over A's/Mariners (10:10 ET): Oakland moves on to Seattle after taking two of three in Los Angeles (from the Angels) to start the week. Last night's 3-2 win allowed them to preserve their tenuous lead in the Wild Card (now one-half game ahead of the Rays), though Cleveland lost, giving the A's a two-game cushion to still make the playoffs. It's tough not to like the spot here for Oakland as they are 9-1 this season as a road favorite of -175 or higher and facing a last place team that's been shutout each of its last two games. But the price is just too high. The A's should score plenty in this game, which makes the Over a better value in our opinion. 

Sean Manaea toes the rubber tonight for Oakland as he looks to continue a successful return from shoulder surgery. Manaea has looked great so far, allowing just three runs in 23 2/3 IP, which is good for a 1.14 ERA and 0.803 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .150 against him. But it's still a small sample size and you shouldn't be so sure that he'll be able to maintain this level of performance. There's also the fact that Oakland has had a tougher time w/ Seattle than you might imagine. They've gone just 8-7 head to head this season & that's after winning the L3 games. They have not played since July.

Seattle will be glad to get away from Houston where they were shutout each of the last two days (lost both games 3-0). It should be a bittersweet night here as Felix Hernandez makes what will likely be his last ever start in this park. King Felix lost his crown some time ago and isn't about to regain it. Shockingly, he has won just ONE of his last 25 appearances! He's 1-7 w/ a 6.51 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in 14 starts this year and was rocked again his last time out (by Baltimore, no less), giving up five runs in five innings. Oakland averages 5.6 rpg on the road, so they should score a decent number here. Probably they can score enough to almost send this one Over themselves. The Mariners should help out a little w/ a few runs of their own. The Over is 85-62-11 in all Seattle games this season. 10* Over A's/Mariners

10* Toronto (7:07 ET): Did the Blue Jays wave the proverbial "white flag" by electing to go w/ Thomas Pannone on Tuesday? Originally, it was supposed to be Anthony Kay starting, but he was a late scratch due to a back issue. So, with their backs against the wall, the Jays went w/ Pannone and that's about as close to a guaranteed loss as they can have. Pannone entered last night w/ a 0-4 record in six starts (1-5 TSR) and an 11.03 ERA + 1.648 WHIP. Sure enough, he allowed three runs in the first inning and the Blue Jays were playing catch up from there. They eventually lost ... as it didn't help they were facing Dylan Bundy, the Orioles best starter who - ironically - was originally supposed to start Monday's opener but got pushed back.

The loss last night was the Jays first to Baltimore in five meetings this month. They just swept them in Camden Yards a week ago. Obviously, we all know that the Orioles are a very bad baseball team. Their 52 wins actually represent an improvement from last season (when they won only 47). But they've still been outscored by ... runs this season. Because of last night's win, there's a chance they may end up w/ a better run differential than 2018's -270. This year, only the Tigers have a worse record/run differential than the O's. Bottom line is that you should expect Toronto to bounce back tonight.

The pitching situation should now be cleared up as Jacob Waguespack is set to start Wednesday's game. We can't say that Waguespack has been great, but he has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. Two of them saw him get hit w/ some unearned runs, but he's been fairly solid. Certainly much better than Baltimore's choice to toe the rubber here. That would be Gabriel Ynoa, who remains winless in 12 starts w/ a 1-11 TSR. That's bad. He has an 8.10 ERA on the road. Ynoa wasn't all that bad when he started against Toronto at home last week, but he still gave up two home runs and the Orioles lost 8-4. Baltimore hasn't won B2B games all September and that's what this ultimately boils down to, fading a horrible team off a rare win. 10* Toronto 

10* Under Cardinals/D'backs (9:40 ET): We rode the Cardinals to a pretty easy 9-7 victory last night. Despite the back & forth, high scoring nature of the ballgame, St. Louis never trailed and in fact enjoyed a four run advantage on two different occasions. It was their fifth win in a row overall. In the analysis for Monday's game, I made mention of the tremendous pitching the Cards have gotten this year and how that's a major reason why they are very likely to win the NL Central. Well, they got away w/ a less than stellar Adam Wainwright outing yday. That's a good sign as they're definitely more likely to get a good outing here from Jack Flaherty, who has been simply sensational the entire second half of the season. Only this time, we're going Under. 

Flaherty did throw a season-high 118 pitches his last time out. But he still allowed only one run over eight innings as the Cardinals beat the Cubs 5-4 last Friday. It was the 14th consecutive start where Flaherty allowed 3 ER or fewer. He's gone at least 6 IP in 12 of those and 7+ in eight. Seven times he hasn't given up any runs and he's allowed two or less 12 times. Overall, he has a 1.07 ERA in those L14 starts w/ a 113-21 KW ratio in 92 1/3 IP. The Under is 10-2-2. Opponents have hit just .148 against him. Flaherty has a case to be the NL Cy Young Award winner from where we sit. 

Something else pointed out in yday's analysis is how the D'backs have been LESS effective at the plate at home this year (compared to the road). That really wasn't apparent last night, but look for it to be the case against Flaherty. Now officially eliminated from playoff contention, Arizona looks to slow St. Louis down w/ Mike Leake, a trade deadline acquisition who has been pretty good for them. In his last three starts, Leake has a 3.32 ERA and 1.105 WHIP. He has made five consecutive quality starts, even though the home run ball has been an issue for him. The Under is 4-1-1 in his six starts for Arizona and it's 9-4-1 the L14 times these teams have met. It cashed all three games in the only previous series here in 2019. 10* Under Cardinals/D'backs

8* Atlanta (8:15 ET): I presume the reason that the Braves are available so cheap tonight is because they're facing Danny Duffy, who has pitched really well of late. But Duffy still pitches for the Royals, a very bad team that is one of four this year to lose 100+ games. And while Duffy has a 0.95 ERA and 0.789 WHIP his L3 starts, the Royals have still gone just 1-2 in those games. While Atlanta is pretty well locked into hosting whomever wins the Central (probably St. Louis) in the NLDS, they can still finish w/ 100 wins, which would be quite the accomplishment. Kansas City's L10 games have all come against playoff teams and they have gone just 2-8. Back the Braves here. 

One Braves player we won't be seeing tonight is Freddie Freeman as the first baseman didn't make the trip due to an elbow injury. He's getting ready for the playoffs and that's fine by us. Honestly, the Braves shouldn't even need Freeman to beat a lowly opponent like KC. One player they can turn to is starter Julio Teheran, who had been lights out for four straight starts before running into the Phillies each of his last two times out. But while Teheran may have his struggles w/ the Phillies, there's been no such issue for him in two career starts vs. the Royals where his ERA is 0.69. Now Atlanta did lose both games, one by a 2-0 score earlier this year. But they are simply too talented to lose to the Royals for a third straight time this year. 

Yes, Kansas City did take both games in Atlanta back in July. That series came right after the All-Star Break, so perhaps there was a "hangover" for the Braves. Regardless, look for them to exact some revenge here. Teheran threw six strong innings in his start in that series, but got hit w/ TWO unearned runs, which was the difference in the ballgame. Don't look for Atlanta to get shutout again here, even facing Duffy, as they get a DH in the lineup and are already averaging an impressive 5.2 rpg on the road. While Duffy's L3 starts have been great, he still has a 4.30 ERA and 1.305 WHIP on the year. Atlanta is 50-26 vs. losing teams in 2019 and should roll here. 8* Atlanta

10* St. Louis (9:40 ET): The Cardinals had themselves quite the weekend at Wrigley Field, sweeping a four-game series from the Cubs. Every win was by one run, the opener in extra inning, followed by three that saw them rally in the late innings. In the interest of full disclosure, we backed the Cubs each of the last two days. That wasn't a shot at St. Louis though, rather an endorsement of what we thought the Cubs would be capable of doing in those spot. Turns out we were incorrect. But the bottom line is this pitching staff continues to give up very few runs (3rd fewest in all of baseball) and they've got perhaps their hottest starter on the mound Monday. Go w/ them. 

Arizona is team we've endorsed as being better than their record previously. But that's all immaterial now. At 80-76 and off a loss Sunday, their playoff hopes are minuscule. Another curious item w/ the D'backs is that their offense declines here at Chase Field. The gap in runs per game scored at home and on the road has shrunk recently. But their hitters would seem to be "up against it" today facing Adam Wainwright, who has allowed all of 1 earned run his last four starts. Needless to say, St. Louis has won all four of those games. They've won 7 of his L8 starts overall and 12 of the last 14. 

Wainwright will be opposed here by Alex Young. Two starts ago, Young found himself in the unusual situation of allowing five unearned runs. He was better his last time out, but still issued four walks and the D'backs lost that game 12-6 to the Marlins. In Young's last two starts, opposing teams have scored a total of 23 runs. This after a stretch earlier in the year when Arizona was actually shutout in three straight Young starts. The Cardinals have already clinched a playoff spot, bu are trying to nail down the division. They have dominated the D'backs head to head, winning 25 of the last 37 meetings. 10* St. Louis

7* Washington (7:05 ET): This is a really tough spot for the Phillies. They had to play the Sunday night game (in Cleveland) and lost there 10-1, effectively ending their admittedly dim postseason hopes. That leaves them six games back of the Wild Card w/ only eight to play. It's not like we really had a ton of faith in the Phils anyway. This is a team that's been sporting a negative run differential (currently -11) much of the season. Now they head to the Nation's capital to face a Nationals team that very likely WILL be a Wild Card and wants to have home field advantage for that game. 

Making matters even tougher for Philly is that they'll be facing Pat Corbin tonight. The Nats starter has been quite good this year, especially when pitching at home. He has a 2.00 ERA and 0.93 WHIP here and the team has gone 11-3 in those 14 starts. Perhaps even more promising from the Nats' perspective is the fact Corbin has a 3-0 TSR vs. the Phillies in 2019. All three starts came in the first half of the season and were quality outings. In 19 IP, Corbin allowed just five runs in the three starts and had 24 K's. I haven't even mentioned yet what he did his last time out, allowing just two runs to St. Louis (both unearned) w/ 11 K's, giving him a 2.05 ERA his L7 starts overall. That last start was on the road too. 

After dropping a game to Miami Sunday, by a score of 5-3, the Nats really could use a bounce back game at the plate. They'll be facing a pitcher in Zach Eflin, who has not allowed a run in consecutive starts. But one of those lasted only 3 2/3 innings and both were against the same opponent (Atlanta). He's faced Washington three times this year, with the Phillies going 2-1, but the loss came opposite Corbin in this stadium. The Phillies are not a good road team and are just 8-17 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. Eflin's TSR in his L21 road starts is just 5-16 and the Nats average 5.5 rpg at home. 7* Washington 

8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Well, let's try this again, even though the Cubs' slide continued yday w/ yet another one-run loss. It was their fifth loss in a row, all at home, the last four all coming by a single run. To call this slide "ill-timed" would be quite the understatement as it's dropped the Cubs three games off the playoff pace. Forget about winning the division, it'll now take a memorable finish just to get the Wild Card. What's so perplexing about this losing streak is that it has come entirely at Wrigley Field. The Cubs' 51 home wins this year still ranks in the top five. They have a +112 YTD run differential, which when compared to Milwaukee's YTD run differential (-3), you'd think it would be the Cubs that are far more "deserving" of the postseason appearance. We shall see. 

Rarely do you see a home team, especially one as good as the Cubs, get swept in a four-game series. But that's the predicament they face Sunday. I'm calling for an end to the slide, not only because I still believe in this team, but also due to what starter Yu Darvish has accomplished lately. Darvish has 27 strikeouts in his L2 starts and has allowed just five runs in his last four starts (26 IP). Four of those came his last time out. But he's still allowed 1 or 0 ER in four of his last six starts overall. He has a 2.70 ERA since the All-Star Break. Cardinals' starter Miles Mikolas often struggles on the road where he's gone 4-8 in 16 starts (7-9 TSR) w/ a 5.80 ERA and 1.438 WHIP. So I give Darvish the edge in today's pitching matchup. 

Making this Cubs' losing streak all the more strange is that the five games that preceded it, all wins, saw them outscore opponents 59-18! As I already mentioned, four of the losses have been one-run games. In this series, they've twice blown leads and also lost an extra-inning game. Yesterday's loss was the most painful as closer Craig Kimbrel gave up B2B HR's in the top of the ninth to lose 9-8. A sweep here would be truly unkind. Look for the Cubs to avoid that fate as this is their longest losing streak since April. Their season is very much on the line here. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): You can make it four straight losses for the Cubs, all here at Wrigley, a streak that couldn't come at a worse time. The last three have all been by one run, yesterday's being perhaps the most frustrating as it was 2-1 despite outhitting the Cardinals 9-4. If not for Yadier Molina (3-4, 2 RBI's), the Cards would have just one hit for the game. The Cubs now not only trail St. Louis by 5.5 games in the NL Central, but also Milwaukee by two games for the Wild Card. Not only do the Cubs have the best run differential of all three teams, the Brewers have negative scoring differential. If they were to make the playoffs - and not the Cubs - it would be quite the disappointment in the Windy City. It's time for them to bounce back Saturday afternoon. 

Dakota Hudson goes today for the Cardinals. His L7 starts have been remarkable w/ a 1.59 ERA and 0.904 WHIP. The team has gone 6-1 in that stretch. We made the mistake of fading Hudson as a home dog Monday vs. Washington. He threw seven innings and allowed only two runs in that start, a 4-2 Cards' victory. However, we've got our reasons for fading him again here. A big one is his 1.582 WHIP on the road. Five of those last seven starts have come at home. The two that didn't were against Colorado and Kansas City, two very bad teams. Somehow Hudson has not yet faced the Cubs this year. Something interesting about him is while he has a 14-2 TSR as a favorite, he has a 7-7 TSR as an underdog (as he is here). 

It's "put up or shut up" time for the Cubs. They lost Thursday's game in extra innings (after rallying from 3 runs down in the 9th) and then yesterday was won they easily could have won too. They'll be handing the ball to Jose Quintana for this all-important game. Quintana has NOT pitched well of late, turning in an 11.33 ERA and 2.227 WHIP his L3 starts. He's been tagged for 4+ runs in four of his last five starts. Curiously though, he still has a better WHIP on the year compared to Hudson. Quintana has faced the Cardinals two times in 2019, winning the one at home (13-5) as he held them to two runs in six innings. This current Cubs' losing streak matches their 2nd longest of the season w/ the only longer one (six games) coming very early in the year. Their 51 home wins are 4th most in all of MLB. 10* Chi Cubs 

6* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For the Indians, the Tigers were the "gift that keeps on giving." Last night's 7-0 win made it yet another sweep over the team from Detroit as the Indians finished the year an incredible 18-1 against their division rival. If the Tribe ends up making it to the postseason, they may want to send a thank you card to the Tigers. Last night's win enabled Cleveland to pull into a tie w/ idle Tampa Bay (both 90-63) for the second Wild Card spot in the American League (two games back of Oakland). For the final home series of the year, they welcome in a National League team - Philadelphia - whom they should defeat every bit as easily as the odds indicate they should. 

The Phillies are obviously a big step up from playing the Tigers, but they are still a below average ballclub by the numbers. I say that because they've been outscored on the year. A 5-4 loss to the Braves yesterday afternoon really put a dent in Philly's playoff hopes as they are now four back of the Wild Card needing to jump three teams. Not that I view this is as a playoff team anyway. Injuries have also begun to take their toll on their everyday lineup, the latest being Jean Segura (one of their more consistent hitters), who left yday's game w/ a cramp. 

Something to keep in mind is that Cleveland has won 8 of the past 9 days its played. It's only losses during that stretch came in a doubleheader where they got swept by Minnesota. They send Shane Bieber out for this all-important series opener and you have to like that considering Bieber is second in all of MLB this year (deGrom) w/ 14 starts of 7+ innings & allowing 2 runs or fewer. The Indians are 20-11 in all Bieber starts this year. Drew Smyly of the Phillies, like Bieber, has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. But the difference is Smyly still has a 5.62 ERA and 1.528 WHIP on the year. Things get a lot tougher here facing an American League lineup (w/ a DH). 6* Cleveland

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): It remains unconscionable to us that the Mets are 26-36 in all starts made by Jacob deGrom since the start of last season. In spite of his own team's ineptitude, deGrom captured the Cy Young last year and while he won't be able to match those numbers from 2018, this season has seen him continue to pitch very well. He has a 2.61 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 30 starts and lately he's been too good for even the Mets to deny. His L2 times out, deGrom has given up a total of just one run while working 14 innings. He's given up just six hits and has a 19-1 KW ratio. Starting on the road this evening, he's available at a much cheaper price than usual and we'll back him against the light-hitting Reds. 

Though on the outskirts of contention, the Mets have managed to stay relevant in the NL Wild Card race. They're 3.5 games back, thanks to a 9th inning rally Wednesday in Colorado. They had yesterday off to get to Cincinnati, a good thing seeing as the Mets' record following a day off is 12-7. (Reds are 1-11 L12 in that situation). The playoff race is something that the Reds fell out of long ago as they just haven't been able to get over the proverbial hump. Like the Mets, they come into this series on a two-game win streak, but they're only 72-81 and have managed just a trio of three-game win streaks since the Break (none more than three). 

The Reds do have good pitching and if he were facing almost any other pitcher, Luis Castillo would be a bargain at this price at Great American Ballpark. But deGrom is simply better than Castillo and a major problem Cincy faces in this this matchup is an inability to score consistently as they are 4th from the bottom in runs among all NL teams. Not only does deGrom sport a 2.09 ERA since May 22nd (21 starts), he has a 1.74 ERA in five career outings against the Reds. He shut them out for seven innings in the only prior series between the teams, which was back in early May, allowing only three hits. The Mets lost that game 1-0, but ironically the Reds lost a quality start by Castillo in that same series! Castillo is working on extended rest here (six days), but the problem is he has a 2-6 TSR in that situation. 8* NY Mets

10* Under Royals/Twins (7:40 ET): Given the respective season-long placements in the AL Central standings, it should not surprise you to learn that Minnesota has dominated Kansas City in head to head play this season, winning 9 of the 12 matchups. There is a 37.5 game gap between the two entering this series, which will be the final one of the regular season at Target Field. Unfortunately for Twins' fans, it is not very likely that they'll be able to wrap up the division this weekend, even with a sweep (which is not out of the realm of possibility). The individual game prices on the Twins will also be too high for our taste, but there are a number of key factors that have us taking the Under in Thursday's opener. 

Minnesota has already set a new single season record for most home runs hit in a season and is the 1st team ever to have FIVE 30+ HR hitters. But a curious thing about the team is that they score fewer runs per game at home than they do on the road. It's almost a full run per game drop. Last night, they were actually no-hit for 5+ innings in what ended up as a 3-1 loss to the White Sox. They finished the game w/ only three hits. So that's an encouraging sign for Royals' starter Mike Montgomery, who has had his fair share of struggles this season. However, Montgomery does have a 2.77 ERA in three career outings vs. the Twins. He has not faced them in 2019, but did just hold Houston to two runs on five hits in his last outing. Five of his last seven starts have seen Montgomery allow 2 ER or less. 

Kansas City is not a strong offensive team as they rank 28th (out of 30 teams) in runs per game. Last night was another poor effort at the plate as they were shutout and held to four hits in a 1-0 loss at Oakland. It was the 4th time in the L6 games the Royals failed to score more than a single run. Tonight, they face a pitcher who has dominated them throughout his career, that being Kyle Gibson, who is not only 9-5 (3.55 ERA) in 21 career starts vs. KC, but also 2-0 (3.26 ERA) in three starts this season. This will be just the second start for Gibson after a bout w/ ulcerative colitis, which affected his sleep and caused him to lose 10 lbs. He's seen each of his last NINE starts go Over the total, but w/ his past success against the Royals, we'll call for this to be his best outing in awhile. 10* Under Royals/Twins

8* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): The Brewers have somehow remained not just relevant in the playoff discussion, but are now tied w/ the Cubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.  I say "somehow" because they are in this position in spite of a -24 run differential. It's been a LONG time since they were "in the black" in that regard. Yet they've been able to catch a number of teams "at the right time" recently and it's led to an 11-1 record the L12 games. The latest victim has been a struggling San Diego club that has now dropped six straight after losing here at Miller Park both Monday and Tuesday. 

This was actually a revenge series for the Brew Crew, who got swept out in Petco Park back in June. But things are a lot different now w/ them in the thick of a playoff chase while San Diego is already thinking about 2020. The Padres have managed just two runs on six hits so far in this series and have been held to three runs or less in 9 of their past 14 games. This is good news for Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser, who is looking to bounce back from a rough showing last week in St. Louis. But don't forget Houser had a stretch from August 10th to September 2nd where he allowed just 1 ER in five consecutive starts. He also threw 3 1/3 scoreless innings of relief against the Padres in that aforementioned series back in June. 

The Padres will go with Dinelson Lamet, who continues to make his way back from Tommy John surgery. It hasn't been a good run of results recently for Lamet, who has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. Going back to before his surgery, the Padres are just 7-19 the L26 times he's started. Not only has San Diego lost six in a row overall, they've also lost eight straight road games. These are two teams clearly trending in opposite directions down the home stretch and we'll obviously stay w/ the hot one. 8* Milwaukee 

10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): The Braves lost to the Phillies last night, 5-4, as Philadelphia scored all five of its runs in one inning. The loss leaves Atlanta's magic number at 3 to win the NL East while the Phils remain a fringe Wild Card contender, still four games back of the Brewers & Cubs. While Atlanta may not be quite as dominant as their 93-59 record indicates, we've never bought into the Phillies as legit playoff contenders as they have a negative scoring differential on the year, not to mention they were kind of an overrated group last year as well. It could be argued that signing Bryce Harper was a waste of funds given that there hasn't been any kind of noticeable improvement year over year. Look for the Braves to bounce back at home tonight. (This game is on ESPN btw). 

Atlanta will turn to Julio Teheran in this spot, a proven commodity who has allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his last 12 starts. Now Teheran did see a stretch of four consecutive quality outings end w/ a rough day in Philadelphia last week where he gave up three home runs - and five runs total - in a losing effort. However, it's a big difference getting to face the Phillies here at home where he has a 10-5 TSR and 2.89 ERA this season. Overall, Atlanta is 47-29 at SunTrust Park in 2019, including a 27-10 record as a ML favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

While Teheran has struggled in his two starts against the Phillies this year (both on the road), the same could be said for Zach Eflin in his three starts vs. the Braves. Eflin took the loss his last time out by allowing three unearned runs in a 3-1 final. His previous two starts vs. the Braves went even worse w/ him allowing 17 runs in just 5 2/3 innings. Only one of those three previous starts came here in Atlanta. The Phillies aren't a great road team, confirmed by a 6-15 record this year as a dog of +125 to +175. They are 29-55 in that role the L3 seasons. 10* Atlanta 

8* Over Nationals/Cardinals (1:15 ET): In a series rife w/ playoff implications, these teams have split the first two games w/ St. Louis winning Monday (4-2) and Washington winning last night, 6-2. Both are trying to hold off the Cubs and Brewers right now. In the Cardinals case, for the division lead and for Washington's, it's the Wild Card. St. Louis has a two game edge over both the Cubs and Brewers in the NL Central while Washington is up 1.5 games on both as they continue to lead the Wild Card. Unless both are passed by BOTH the Cubs and Brewers, then both will still be participants in the postseason. We've got what looks to be an outstanding pitching matchup for the series finale this afternoon (Scherzer vs. Wainwright), but I sense that this game will go Over. 

Wainwright has come on strong recently for the Redbirds, going 5-1 w/ a 2.61 ERA and 1.282 WHIP his L7 starts. He's been especially dominant in the last three, going 3-0 w/ a 0.45 ERA and 0.80 WHIP as he's allowed just one run in 20 IP. Wainwright is definitely better at home (as is the case w/ most of the Cardinals' starters) and has a respectable 9-4 career record (3.34 ERA) vs. Washington. So why go Over here? Well, I think Wainwright is due for a bad outing. His recent stretch is as good as he's pitched all season. For the year, he has a 3.94 ERA and 1.378 WHIP, fairly mediocre numbers. Also, the Over is 14-5-2 in Wainwright's L21 starts vs. the NL East, including 3-1-1 vs. the Nats. The Cardinals are 7-3-1 Over off their L11 losses. 

With Scherzer also on the mound, we're getting a low total. Since returning from the DL, Scherzer hasn't been exactly dominant, posting a 3.91 ERA in five starts. He made it through only five innings his last time out (99 pitches) and lost a decision for the 1st time since May 17th. It was also the first time he didn't allow a HR since returning. He gave up three runs in another loss to St. Louis back in May and has a losing career record against his hometown team. Scherzer has yet to go more than six innings since returning to the rotation. The Over is 5-1-1 his L7 road starts vs. a team w/ a winning record. It won't take much for this one to go Over. 8* Over Nationals/Cardinals

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D'backs came into this series having lost seven of nine, but a matchup w/ the Marlins (at home) is tailor-made for a turnaround. Sure enough, they took last night's series opener by a score of 7-5. It may not have been easy as the home team needed to score four times in the seventh after giving up five in the top half of that inning. But they got the job done and things should go a lot more smoothly tonight. I say that not only because Miami is an awful team, but also due to the fact they're facing a starter who really struggles on the road. With a +60 run differential on the year, Arizona is better than you think and should win here rather easily.

By just about every measure, Miami is the worst team in the National League. Of course, that was to be expected. But still, their offense is beyond putrid as all but three teams (Detroit, KC, White Sox) have scored at least 100 more runs than they have over the course of the year. Caleb Smith gets the start for the Fish Tuesday. While he's looked good at home, we alluded to his struggles on the road earlier. Smith is 2-6 in his 12 road starts and the team has lost his last five starts overall, the last two even coming at home. His last two on the road saw him allow a total of 12 runs. There is also the issue that Smith has reached a career-high in innings pitched for a season.

While there's really no discernible reason to like the Marlins in this spot, there's plenty to back the D'backs. They send rookie Alex Young to the mound this evening in search of his eighth win in 14 tries. On September 7th, Young set a new franchise rookie record w/ 12 K's vs. the Reds. The follow-up to that (vs. the Mets last Thursday) was not good, but was also on the road. Back when Arizona visited Miami in late July, they won only one of four games. But that one win came w/ Young on the bump. The D'backs do still have an outside shot at a playoff berth and are simply a much better team than the Marlins. 8* Arizona

6* Boston (7:10 ET): After sweeping the Phillies on the road, the Red Sox now get to host an Interleague series. While it's been a disappointing campaign in Beantown, one that recently saw the team fire its GM less than one year after winning the World Series, this is still - by most objective measures - a really solid ballclub. They're on a pace to win about 87 games and have outscored their opponents by 83 runs. Even though their playoff hopes are all but dead, they've won three straight after taking the two games in Philly over the weekend. Perhaps most head-scratching of all is that the Red Sox have a losing record at Fenway Park this year (36-39) despite actually outscoring opponents by a half-run per game here. Look for them to snap a three-game home losing streak tonight. 

The Red Sox may be disappointing, but they are still better than the overrated Giants. Sure, it may seem odd to point to a team that's six games below .500 and call them "overrated." But the reality of the matter is that the Giants have been "saved" by an extremely fortunate 35-15 record in one-run games this year. They've actually been outscored by 78 runs, meaning they've played to the level of a team that "should" be 18 games below .500! As I've said before when fading San Francisco, it's one of the largest gaps between actual and expected wins in all of baseball. 

I'll concede that the Giants are a better offensive team on the road and do benefit from having a DH in this series. But they still should be unable to keep pace w/ a Red Sox lineup that averages 5.6 rpg here at home. Only Colorado (obviously) and Houston (best team in baseball) score at a higher rate at home. This means trouble for Giants' starter Logan Webb, who already has an 8.25 ERA and 1.945 WHIP on the road. His last road start saw him surrender eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings and that was vs. a NL team. Boston will counter w/ Nathan Eovaldi, who has yet to win a single decision in nine tries. We'll look past that - and his poor history vs. the Giants - as the Red Sox are due to win one at home (went 2-4 on most recent homestand vs. two first place teams - Yankees & Twins) and probably finish the season strong. 6* Boston

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates are coming off a series w/ the Cubs that was absolutely horrific for them. Not that this season has been very good in the Steel City, but giving up 47 runs in three games to the Cubbies (not a misprint) could very well have been the nadir. It's also been a rough stretch for tonight's starter Mitch Keller, who has a 10.97 ERA and 1.968 WHIP his L3 starts. But he and the Bucs should benefit tonight from facing a Mariners team that is playing w/o a DH (NL rules) and has a struggling starter of its own on the hill. We offer a rare endorsement of the Pirates tonight.

Tonight will mark the 32nd start of the season for the Mariners' Marco Gonzales. There are only three other pitchers - in all of baseball - entering today that have made at least 32 starts. He and Yusei Kikuchi are the only two on the M's staff w/ more than 13 starts. While he may have proven himself to be durable, Gonzales' results have been mediocre at best and not good at all when you look at the last two road starts. He gave up 11 runs in 11 IP at Houston and Texas and walked more batters (7) than he struck out (2). Something else to consider here is the unfamiliar environment for Seattle. They haven't visited PNC Park since 2016. This is a team that is just 27-46 on the road this season.

Keller is considered a top prospect for Pittsburgh, so something should be expected from him. Here at home is where he would be expected to turn things around. In three starts so far at PNC Park, his numbers have been good (2.13 ERA, 1.026 WHIP). Again, he stands to benefit from facing a Mariners lineup that is w/o a DH. While Pirates' pitching just got crushed by the Cubs, Seattle has been no better in that department, giving up four 10+ run games in its L10. The Pirates are also 12-5 vs. the American League this season and 37-20 L57 Interleague Games. That's tied for the third most IL wins among NL teams this year. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Under Royals/A's (10:07 ET): You have to like Oakland's chances of getting one of the two Wild Card spots in the American League. They are projected to have the easiest remaining schedule, facing nothing but sub-.500 foes, starting with this series against the 55-95 Royals. The A's have won six straight - all on the road - including three against Houston. They now have a top five run differential (+152) in all of baseball after outscoring their opponents by 31 runs during the current win streak. It won't take many runs to beat Kansas City and w/ the bottom of the ninth unlikely to be played tonight, we're going Under. 

Tanner Roark is the latest find for this A's organization, who continues to find players off the scrap heap and have them end up contributing in a major way. Roark has been excellent here in his new home, going 3-0 w/ a 1.88 ERA in four starts here in Oakland. His last time out, he did serve up three home runs to the Astros, but it hardly mattered as the A's won that game 21-7. It figures to be a far lower-scoring game tonight as the Royals are certainly nothing close to the Astros. Speaking of the Astros, Kansas City was just swept by them over the weekend and scored all of five runs in the three-game series. 

These teams did just meet late last month in Kansas City w/ the A's taking three of four games. Three of the four also went Over as Oakland had big days at the plate in both the series opener and finale. The latter was against Glenn Sparkman, who will start the opener of this series. Sparkman hasn't had a very good year, but should actually benefit from facing the A's in Oakland. Curiously, the A's score a lot more on the road than they do at home. Their scoring average dips nearly a full run per game! The Under is 15-7-1 in KC's last 23 games here in Oakland. 10* Under Royals/A's

9* Washington (7:45 ET): Neither of these teams had good weekends and in each instance it came at the expense of a division rival. Washington dropped two of three to Atlanta, only winning yesterday (7-0). St. Louis did the same with Milwaukee, here at home, as they blew a 9th inning in spectacular fashion Sunday. They were up 4-3 heading into the final frame, but the Brewers' Ryan Braun made them pay for not having a "true" closer right now (Carlos Martinez injured) by hitting a grand slam off Fernandez after John Gant had walked the bases loaded. That's going to be a tough defeat to get over and facing Stephen Strasburg tonight makes matters even more difficult. Go w/ the Nats. 

I do have to say it's pretty rare to see St. Louis in the position of underdog at Busch Stadium. If the ML holds, tonight will be just the second time this season that the Cardinals are home dogs in the +125 to +175 price range. They're a good home team, but Washington is also a good road team as they have gone 17-9 as road faves of -125 to -175. An interesting tidbit is that only four teams in all of baseball - the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and Twins - have better scoring margins on the road this season than the Nats. Strasburg has a 41-14 TSR his L55 road starts. 

Strasburg has been very good of late w/ 44 K's and just seven runs allowed his L5 starts. That's in 33 IP and four of those five starts were on the road, the last two each coming against a first place opponent (Atlanta, Minnesota). So Strasburg won't be intimidated here by a Cardinals team he's pitched well against in the past (2.38 ERA in seven career starts). Now it may be tough to overlook what Cards' starter Dakota Hudson has done lately. He hasn't allowed a run in four of his last six starts, but did lose his last time out, 2-1 at Colorado. St. Louis did score six runs yesterday, but had only five hits. Washington is the better team here and let's ride Strasburg. 9* Washington 

6* St. Louis (7:15 ET): The Brewers being in the playoff race this late is a little irritating if you're someone (like us) that believe in advanced metrics. Going into yesterday, they were tied w/ the Cubs for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. This despite a -24 run differential while the Cubs had outscored their opponents by 80 runs over the course of the season. Well, yesterday definitely went the Cubs way as they hammered the Pirates 17-8 while the Brew Crew lost 10-0 here in St. Louis. Milwaukee had won seven straight coming into this series, but that's over now and we're standing firm that this team WON'T make the playoffs. Fade them here. 

While the Cubs were a beneficiary, yesterday went pretty well for the Cardinals too. They now lead the NL Central by four games. They enter Saturday's game as big ML favorites w/ Jack Flaherty on the bump. It is nothing short of remarkable how well Flaherty has pitched down the stretch. Over his L8 starts, he hasn't allowed a run in five of them (gone 6+ innings in all five). He's allowed just four runs TOTAL in the eight starts and one was unearned. He's earned a win in six of the last seven and has gone eight innings w/o allowing a single run in the last two. Since the All-Star Break, Flaherty has a 0.71 ERA. For the year, he has a 2.42 ERA and 0.794 WHIP at home. 

Not that Flaherty needs much run support, but the Cardinals have now scored 10 runs in B2B games. This is a revenge spot for Flaherty as three of the four runs he's allowed since the start of August came in his only loss during that stretch ... to Milwaukee. Flaherty has struggled against the Brewers this year, but I can't see that being the case tonight. Jordan Lyles has been a much better pitcher for Milwaukee than he was for Pittsburgh and started opposite Flaherty in that game last month. But I can't see him beating him twice in less than a month. The Brewers, who are a sub-.500 road team, are just 2-5 this season after being shutout. 6* St. Louis