10* Under Cardinals/Pirates (4:05 ET): It was nothing short of a disastrous weekend for the Pirates, who were swept here at home by lowly Milwaukee, including a 10-0 loss on Sunday. Things actually could have been a lot worse, believe it or not, but the teams that they are chasing in the Wild Card race didn't perform a whole heck of lot better themselves. One of those teams is Monday's opponent, St. Louis, who did win Sunday (5-2 at Cincinnati). But that was the Redbirds' only win over the Reds, so the lead is now just 3.5 games over the Bucs for that second Wild Card and the Mets are in between (just two back of St. Louis in the loss column). Clearly, we've established that this is a meaningful Labor Day game at PNC Park and with the two sides so familiar with one another, I'm thinking Under.

This will be the 14th overall meeting between the two teams this season. Of the now 14 matchups, it will be the fourth time St. Louis manager Mike Matheny has handed the baseball to Adam Wainwright. Each of the previous three have seen Wainwright turn in a quality start, which means going at least six innings and giving up 3 ER or less. The last time he faced Pittsburgh was July 7th and there he allowed just one run and five hits in seven innings of work. He would go on to win his first start after the break, a complete game effort against Miami, but interestingly has not tasted victory since. It certainly hasn't always been his fault for that as five of the last eight starts have resulted in no decisions. Last time out, he allowed just one run and three hits in 7 IP against Milwaukee, but still did not factor into the decision, which was a 2-1 win for St. Louis. Regardless if Wainwright factors into the decision this afternoon, his history suggests he can keep the Pirates' lineup in check. It certainly helps that the Bucs have been shutout three times during the current six-game losing streak!

St. Louis' own offense has seen a decrease in production recently as the team batting average over the L7 games is just .197. They've averaged only 3.0 rpg during that time as well. So, it's not just one, but two scuffling offenses at play here.The Cards had scored only six runs total in the four games previous to yday's 5-2 win at Cincinnati. That's certainly good news for Pirates' starter Chad Kuhl, who leads the team w/ a 7-2 team start record. His ERA (3.70) and WHIP (1.17) are both fine as well as he's allowed 3 ER or less in eight of those nine trips to the mound. Overall, he's given up just 12 runs in his L6 starts.  Each of the L3 have stayed Under w/ none of the games seeing more than five total runs scored.  10* Under Cardinals/Pirates

5* Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): Like I said in the promo, this one appears to be pretty easy. The Cubs, without question, should be considered the favorite to win the World Series. Regardless of their history, the present has been very kind as this team is now 40 games above .500 w/ a 16.5 game lead in the division and +224 run differential (81 runs better than #2 team) following Sunday's thrilling walk-off win over the Giants (outhit SF 10-4). Meanwhile, Milwaukee may be coming off a sweep in Pittsburgh, including a 10-0 win Sunday, but the oddsmakers aren't buying them and neither am I. The Cubs have beaten the Brewers in 9 of 12 head to head meetings in 2016, including a four-game sweep in Wrigley last month. 

Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester are the big names in the Cubs' starting rotation. But it is Kyle Hendricks that leads all of MLB in ERA (2.06) and is #2 in WHIP (0.981)! Lately, Hendricks has been particularly filthy w/ a 1.42 ERA and 0.789 WHIP his L3 starts. He just threw seven shutout innings of three-hit ball his last time out, vs. Pittsburgh. Milwaukee did beat Hendricks all the way back on May 17th w/ him allowing a season-high 4 ER. He's allowed 3 ER or less in his 18 starts since. In 10 of those, he's allowed 1 or 0 runs! The Brewers have been lucky to avoid Hendricks ever since May 17th, but their fortune changes today. I have no unearthly idea how Hendricks only has a 15-10 TSR. This is a pitcher you need to be looking to bet on moving forward. His bullpen just got done pitching 16 scoreless innings in the Giants' series.

On the other side of the ledger, we have Milwaukee's Zach Davies. He has a 6.06 ERA and 1.592 WHIP his L3 starts, which includes a disastrous trip to the mound against these Cubs. He allowed 7 ER and 10 hits in just 4 IP back on Aug 18 and obviously took the loss there. That was the last time these NL Central rivals faced off and it leaves the Cubs at 23-8 the L31 meetings overall. The Cubs are also an outstanding 40-23 in day games this season. The Brewers have lost the last three times after scoring 10+ runs the previous game, so this looks like a great time to fade as they simply don't measure up to this division foe. 5* Chi Cubs

8* Colorado (4:10 ET): The Rockies really let me down yday, losing 9-4 to the D'backs. As I said in the analysis though, this team (Colorado, that is) remains "better than it's record" (currently 65-70) as they have a run differential of +26, which up until yday was actually better than the Texas Rangers, who have the best record in the American League! I have the Rocks bouncing back from Saturday's defeat today as Arizona remains one of the worst teams in the sport w/ their own run differential of -138 ranking third worst. The D'backs are only 17-27 in day games this season, not to mention 22-34 off a win. 

It was certainly disappointing to see Colorado score only four runs yday. They had totaled 37 in the previous four games and are the highest scoring home team in the major at 6.4 rpg. The gap between them and the sixth highest scoring home team in the league (Baltimore) is larger than the gap betwee #6 and #29. The offense should rebound today facing Archie Bradley, who is hardly having a great season. Bradley has a 5.17 ERA and 1.595 WHIP his L3 starts and those numbers are only slightly worse than what we've seen from him over the course of the entire season. Note that while he hasn't been all that bad his L2 starts, he benefited from facing both Atlanta and Cincinnati at home. While Bradley does have a 3-0 career TSR vs. the Rockies, he is undeserving of it given that his ERA and WHIP are 4.38 and 1.703 respectively.

The home team will counter w/ rookie Jon Gray, who is off B2B quality starts. Last time out, he kept the Dodgers scoreless over six innings and allowed only four hits. That was here at Coors Field. With 18 K's in his L2 starts, he now owns the franchise record for most strikeouts in a season by a rookie w/ 150.  I like how manager Walt Weiss made the move to Gray for today, as opposed to Chad Bettis, who has struggled against Arizona this year. Overall, Colorado is still 9-6 this year vs. Arizona. They are clearly the better team.  I imagine they'll show that today. 8* Colorado

10* Under Marlins/Indians (4:10 ET): I cashed Cleveland in the opener of this three-gamet set, playing them on the run line (-1.5) and they rolled to a 6-2 victory. I laid off yday's game as they were facing Jose Fernandez, but even that couldn't stop the Tribe from scoring eight times in yet another impressive victory. Overall, the team has won five in a row and now leads the AL Central by 5.5 games over Detroit, who lost Saturday. After Saturday's surprisingly high scoring affair (was an 8-3 final), I'm going to jump back in and take the Under in this unusually late start time Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. This is a higher total than either of the first two games of the series.

Though the Marlins lineup should theoretically benefit from the addition of the DH, both previous Cleveland starters - Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer - had little difficulty facing them. Their combined ERA in the first two games was 1.72. Today, it's Danny Salazar. An All-Star, Salazar did not have a good August after spending some time on the disabled list. In four starts last month, his ERA was an unsightly 12.41. But he did show signs of turning things around his last time out as he held Texas to only two runs and five hits in 5 1/3 IP. He also struck out 10 batters in what ended up being a hard luck 2-1 loss. I look for even better results today as Miami has scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their last 13 games. As I mentioned in Friday's analysis, injuries have really hit them hard.

Tom Koehler starts here for the Marlins. Like Salazar, he should benefit here from the fact the opponent has never faced him. Koehler's last interleague start (vs. Kansas City on 8.25) did stay Under the total w/ him holding the Royals to 3 ER in 6 IP. Another key when handicapping the Under is that you always hope to avoid playing the final half inning. Needing only 51 outs rather than 54 can often times be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under. Here, Cleveland is a big favorite on the money line, so I think that it's certainly reasonable to expect that we won't be playing the bottom of the ninth today. 10* Under Marlins/Indians

8* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): Just last week, the Pirates went to Miller Park (which has been a "House of Horrors" for them through the years) and swept the Brewers. It's certainly strange then to see the Brew Crew come here to PNC Park and take the first two games of a three-game set. The B2B losses here now make it five in a row for the Bucs, who are somehow still just 2.5 games back of the second Wild Card in NL (which no one wants to seem to win). Milwaukee is still just 20-35 vs. the rest of the Central (just 12-27 vs. the other three teams besides Pittsburgh). Strangely, the road team has now won the last SEVEN head to head matchups between these two (five of those wins by Pit). That streak ends Sunday.

Milwaukee is not a good road team (22-41). Today's starter Chase Anderson is a big reason why. He's just 1-6 in 12 road starts (3-9 TSR) w/ a 5.89 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He has pitched well against Pittsburgh the L2 times he's faced them, although both outings came at home. He lost here at PNC Park in July, giving up three runs in just four innings. He also took the loss Sunday after giving up a pair of home runs in just 5 1/3 IP. I realize that was Anderson's first loss since July 9th, but that's a little bit misleading. His ERA was north of 5.00 entering that last start. He also threw 101 pitches, his most in any start since prior to Memorial Day. The team is now 6-12 w/ him on the mound as an underdog.

Making just his fourth career big league start will be Steven Brault. While he still is in search of that elusive first win, note that his best start came on 7.29 against Milwaukee. He returned to the rotation Monday (after a one-month absence) and had to face Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. I think this is his best matchup yet. The Brewers entered Saturday batting just .191 its previous seven games and the star of yday, rookie Jose Arcia (had three hits), entered that game w/ just a .209 average since being called up on Aug 1. Milwaukee scored five of its seven runs in the final two innings as well. So, like I said, Brault has a favorable matchup here. The Pirates cannot afford to be swept at home by a non-contender considering the current state of the playoff race. 8* Pittsburgh

9* Toronto (1:07 ET): The Blue Jays are facing the prospect of being swept by the last place team in their division and are now tied w/ Boston for the lead in the AL East. But I like the Jays in Sunday's finale as they'll be sending J.A. Happ and his 19-7 TSR (12-2 L14) to the mound. Note they had a 1-0 lead entering the bottom of the sixth yesterday. Tampa Bay has been the one victimized by some poor luck in 2016 (11-20 in one-run games), but the bottom line is that they are the last place team in the division (58-76) and left to simply "play out the string."  They are second from the bottom in all of MLB at the betting window at -23.5 units.

Last year, it was the offense that carried Toronto to an AL East pennant and appearance in the LCS. They averaged nearly a full run more per game (5.5) than every other team! This year, while the offense still ranks a healthy sixth in runs per game (4.9), the pitching has vastly improved and that's despite losing David Price! Among American League teams, only Cleveland has given up fewer runs per game. Happ's emergence has a lot to do with that. Yes, I'm well aware the team has lost his last two starts after he hadn't dropped a decision since June 6th. But it was still a quality start his last time out, making it eight of those in his L10 outings. Happ has a 2.68 ERA and 1.031 WHIP his L7 starts overall and that includes six shutout innings of four-hit ball against the Rays. Tampa Bay had just two hits through five innings yday.

A major reason why the Rays currently sit near the bottom in net units has been their record w/ Chris Archer on the hill. They are just 9-19 in his starts, resulting in a little over half their total losses at the betting window (-12.6 units). Archer's presence still keeps the price down for this one, which I like. Archer has been a bit stronger of late and while he did beat Happ back in April, I fully anticipate a different result this time around. Archer still has a 4.10 ERA for the year. The Blue Jays have typically been a strong team in day games, going 30-21 w/ the offense averaging 5.4 rpg. 9* Toronto

8* Colorado (8:10 ET): Things certainly did not look great for the Rockies early on yday as they trailed the division rival D'backs 5-0 after four innings. However, on the strength of two huge innings - a six-run fifth and a seven-run eighth, it ended up being a 14-7 win here at Coors Field. I've said before that Colorado is a better team than its record shows. They've actually outscored their opponents by 31 runs over the course of the season. That's a better run differential than Texas (+24), who sits atop the American League standings w/ an 81-54 record! It's been B2B seven-run wins for the Rocks, who have now won five of six overall. Meanwhile, Arizona sits at the bottom of the NL West (56-78) and another loss like yday's could potentially give them the worst run differential in the sport (currently -143). Colorado is now 9-5 head to head this season vs. Arizona.

Tyler Chatwood will toe the rubber for the Rockies tonight. He's been significantly better when pitching outside of Coors Field this year, but who isn't? Perennially, Chatwood had been one of the top pitchers to bet AGAINST. But, on the road this year, he's posted an 8-2 TSR w/ a 1.82 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. He wasn't too shabby his last start at home either; giving up just two runs and five hits in 6 2/3 IP vs. Texas. This is his first start back from a short stint on the DL due to a mild back strain. Arizona seems like an ideal opponent for his return as he's 4-1 all-time against them w/ a 3.75 ERA. This will be his fourth time facing them in 2016. Twice he's turned in a quality start.

While Chatwood may regress when starting at home, we know that his offense always improves. This is the top scoring home team in all of baseball (6.5 rpg). There's a bigger gap in scoring at home between them and the #6 team than there is between the #6 team (Baltimore) and #29! The Rockies average roughly two more runs per game at home compared to on the road. The L4 games have seen them score a total of 37 runs, more than nine per game. None of this is a good sign for Arizona starter Brandon Shipley, who already has a 7.27 ERA and 1.558 WHIP his L3 starts. That's facing the Padres, Mets and Reds, three of the NL's weaker offenses. Another big win for the home team Saturday night. 8* Colorado

10* Over Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): There's no sugarcoating what ended up being a horrific series for the Mariners in Texas. They were swept down in Arlington, including a brutal 8-7 walkoff loss on Tuesday followed by a 14-1 beatdown on Wednesday. Still, they are only 3.5 games back of the second Wild Card in the American League (though the field has become increasingly crowded). I had entertained the notion of taking them in this spot, but starter Ariel Miranda has me leery. It's not Miranda's "rights," but rather his numbers (4.79 ERA, 1.403 WHIP). The team has also lost all four of his starts. At the same time, I'm not about to endorse the sorry Angels w/ Brett Oberholtzer on the hill. Therefore, I'll look to the Over for what I anticipate will be a relatively high-scoring affair.

Don't be fooled by the fact that the Angels come into this series riding a five-game win streak. They were fortunate to host the lowly Reds earlier this week and that was obviously an easy sweep. Over the L7 games, LA has allowed an average of less than 2.0 rpg, but now that they're back on the road, expect that number to go way up. For the year, they allow 4.7 rpg away from home. Oberholtzer has made just the one start in 2016, last Saturday in Detroit, and he lasted only three innings, giving up a homer. He has some nice career marks vs. Seattle, but I still don't trust him. Another issue for the Halos here is that they have no closer. They just sent Fernando Salas to the Mets yday. That could result in some late scoring from the home side tonight.

Miranda lasted only four innings himself his last time out, giving up three runs in Chicago. He's yet to go longer than six in any start. As far as the overall team is concerned, the Over was a perfect 3-0 against Texas w/ Seattle pitching allowing a total of 28 runs in the three games. They've allowed at least five runs in eight of their last 10 games. Miranda will have to deal with Mike Trout, who is still having a great season in spite of his team. He is top five in the American League in batting average, runs scored, stolen bases and OPS. The Over is 45-30-3 in games where Seattle is favored this season. 10* Over Angels/Mariners

8* Kansas City (8:15 ET): Two key edges for the Royals in this divisional tilt. One is that they are at home. They're 41-23 at Kauffman Stadium, a home record that is right in line w/ the top teams in the American League. It has been a 28-41 road record that has kept them on the fringes of contention all year long. The other edge is Danny Duffy will be on the hill. Prior to losing his last start (at Boston), Duffy had not been beaten since June 6th. He was 10-0 over 14 starts w/ the team winning 11 in a row before the loss on Saturday. The Royals just swept the Tigers earlier this month (in Detroit!) and while you'd think the revenge angle "counts for something," the fact is Detroit is overmatched in the opener of this three-game set. Take Kansas City.

Duffy did pitch at Comerica Park on August 16th and shut down the Tigers for 7 2/3 innings, allowing only one run on three hits. It was his third time facing Detroit this season and he's gone 2-0 w/ one no-decision. Ironically, both wins came on the road. Here at home though, Duffy has essentially been "lights out" all year w/ a 10-1 TSR, 3.01 ERA and 1.078 WHIP. He personally has not lost a decision, going 6-0. Since the All-Star Break, his KW rate is 55-14 KW and he'd allowed 3 ER or less in seven straight starts prior to Saturday. I certainly like him over Anibal Sanchez, whose 5-17 team start record makes him the worst pitcher to bet on in all of baseball this year (-12.8 units). He has a 8.01 ERA and 1.675 WHIP on the road (11 starts, 2-9 TSR). Duffy, for the sake of comparison, is #2 in net units earned at +12.8. So the chasm that exists here between the two starting pitchers is about as big as it gets. Sanchez did pitch very well vs. KC back on August 17th, but it was all for naught as the Tigers still ended up losing the game 4-1. I don't think Sanchez will be able to duplicate that performance where he held the Royals lineup to only one hit over seven innings. 

Prior to losing the last two games, the Royals had been a hot team. They'd won seven consecutive series and 18 of 22 games. Note that 5-4 losses to the Yankees on Tuesday and Wednesday both came in extra innings. They are 9-4 head to head with the Tigers in 2016, including 5-2 here at home. The Tigers have been hot themselves, but the pitching mismatch is too severe for them to overcome. 8* Kansas City

10* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am laying the -1.5 w/ the Indians. These teams met in 1997 World Series with Miami (then "Florida") winning in seven games. They haven't met many times since. This will be the Marlins first time traveling to Cleveland since 2012. It's not as if Cleveland needed any added edges for this series opener, but another one is that they had Thursday off while Miami was playing in New York. That was a big win for the Marlins yday as it kept them within three games of the second Wild Card in the National League. But this club has been fading in recent weeks and had lost five in a row prior to yday's 6-4 victory. Injuries have taken a major toll. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna is the latest player to go down. Meanwhile, Cleveland is looking to put away the rest of the competition in the American League Central. They're big favorites on the money line, which is why we're going the RL route here and I believe they'll dominate tonight's lone Interleague matchup.

Carlos Carrasco will take the mound for the Tribe here. He's looking to rebound from a rare shaky effort where he allowed seven runs to the Rangers. However, only three of those runs were earned. Carrasco's KW rate remains very strong of late (36-1 L4 starts!). He'd thrown eight scoreless inning of four-hit ball at Oakland in the start prior to the one at Texas. He has really good numbers for the season (3.23 ERA, 1.101 WHIP). That WHIP ranks in the top 10 in the American League. So, I do anticipate the bounce back tonight. Miami has obviously never faced him before and any edge they might enjoy w/ the addition of the DH to the lineup (AL park) is nullified by all the injuries. Remember that cleanup man Giancarlo Stanton is still out as well. This offense averaged only 3.5 rpg during a 10-18 month of August.

The Marlins are forced to counter Carrasco w/ Andrew Cashner, who is looking more and more like an ill-conceived pickup at the deadline. Since the trade from San Diego, Cashner has lost all three of his starts thanks to a 1.812 WHIP. He has more walks than strikeouts in those three starts, which is never a good sign. He's made some appearances out of the bullpen as well. But the bottom line is that Cashner is winless in 10 road starts this season (2-8 TSR) w/ a 6.45 ERA and 1.567 WHIP. The Indians are the third highest scoring home team in all of baseball (5.7 rpg), trailing only Colorado and Boston. 10* Run Line Cleveland (-1.5).

8* Atlanta (12:10 ET): The Braves treated me so well yday (won 8-1) that I might as well come back w/ them this afternoon as they look to sweep the Padres right out of town. As I've stated before, you won't find a worse team in day games than San Diego. They're a MLB-worst 12-30 in that situation and you have to figure Getaway Day might be the least likely spot for them to "get off the mat." This series has seen Atlanta win by scores of 7-3 and 8-1. The Padres are a pretty dreadful 25-43 on the road as well and have scored three runs or fewer in eight of the last 10 games. I'm calling for the Braves to pull off just their third sweep of the entire season and first of a non-division foe!

In the first two games of the series, Atlanta starters have both looked like Cy Young candidates. Julio Teheran dominated Monday, but that really wasn't all that surprising, given his numbers. But even I was surprised by how dominant Matt Wisler was and I had him. Wisler was coming off flirting w/ a no-hitter in his previous start and struck out 10 batters while allowing only one run on four hits over 6 IP. San Diego finished the game w/ only five hits and now has a team batting average in the neighborhood of .190 its L8 games. This all bodes well for today's starter, Mike Foltynewicz, who looked good himself his last time out. He held San Francisco to just one run and five hits (retired 15 of the first 18 batters that he faced) in 7 2/3 IP (6-1 KW) and Atlanta won the game 3-1 as +125 ML underdog. The Padres' team batting average in day games is just .217 this season.

Jared Cosart will oppose Foltynewicz and while the two starters have remarkable similar ERA's, Cosart's WHIP is noticeably higher (1.657 to 1.256). Cosart has actually allowed only 3 ER total in his L3 starts, but his strikeout numbers weren't impressive in two of those outings and the last one saw him make it only five innings. In fact, since rejoining the rotation in late July, Cosart has yet to last longer than 6 IP in six tries. There have been three different times this year where Cosart has walked six batters, one of them against Atlanta. As you can tell, this Braves' offense has picked up in this series w/ 15 total runs scored. 8* Atlanta

8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): Both of these NL also-rans essentially folded up their "2016 tents" long ago. The Braves are 49-83, tied w/ Minnesota for the worst record in all of baseball and no team has been outscored by a wider margin over the course of the season (-160 run differential). The Padres now find themselves in last place in their own division (NL West) at 55-76. If you paid any attention to the preseason projections, neither of these clubs' current standing should really surprise you. While, typically, there would be little reason to support Atlanta, I believe tonight is an instance where taking them is worth the investment. San Diego is a dreadful 25-42 on the road this season, including a 7-3 loss here in last night's series opener.

As per usual, the Braves got a solid showing from Julio Teheran last night. Where they deviated from the usual script was the offense actually showed up to support their ace. Recent call-up Dansby Swanson was the driving force behind that production w/ 3 RBI's. Tonight's starter, Matt Wisler, would love to get the same amount of support that Teheran got Tuesday. However, maybe Wisler won't need so much help? After all, in his last start, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He wound up allowing just one run and two hits in eight innings as he cashed as a +160 dog on the money line in Arizona. That was his first start back following a one-month demotion to the minors. Here, he faces a San Diego lineup that has scored three runs or fewer in six of its last seven games. The team's batting average is a paltry .197 during that time.

The Padres will hand the ball to Pat Clemens tonight. In eight starts, he has a 5.54 ERA and 1.539 WHIP. Note that the Braves have won four straight games when facing a pitcher who has a WHIP above 1.30. His last time out, Clemens allowed five runs (in just 5 1/3 innings) in a 6-3 loss to the Cubs where he was a massive underdog. Those 5 1/3 IP actually marked a season-high for Clemens, which is not a good sign for a San Diego bullpen which is 24th in ERA. This is a rare play on the Braves for me. 8* Atlanta

10* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Indians -1.5. I supported the Tribe yday and got rewarded with a hard-fought 5-4 victory. Today, the oddsmakers have made it so that the only possible way to back them is on the run line. It's not too often that I choose to lay the 1.5, but w/ Corey Kluber on the mound and all the overall edges Cleveland has over Minnesota, this is an instance worth doing it. The Twins have now lost 12 in a row, getting outscored by an 88-43 margin! The Indians, fighting for homefield advantage throughout the postseason, have outscored opponents by 90 runs this season and are the third highest scoring home team in all of baseball.

Kluber won the Cy Young back in 2014 w/ a 2.44 ERA and 1.095 WHIP. In 2015, he actually posted a better WHIP (1.054), but his ERA was a full point higher and the big difference was his team start record going from 22-12 in '14 to 11-21 in '15. That 11-21 TSR actually resulted in Kluber being the worst starter to bet on last season. While 2016 seemed to get off to a similarly unfortunate start, the ERA has steadily improved and the WHIP (1.053) is now better than either of the previous two seasons. That's thanks to catching fire here in August w/ a 4-0 record (five starts), 2.20 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He hasn't lost a decision since July 3rd and the team has won his L6 starts overall. Kluber was never as bad as the record showed last year or even the first half of the season. He's someone you'll want to back moving forward.

Meanwhile, Minnesota is not a team you want to be backing right now. While both losses in this series have come by exactly one run, I have every reason to believe they'll get whitewashed tonight. Five times during this losing streak they've lost a game by at least five runs. Kluber figures to keep their offense in check and remember the Twins were shutout on Monday. Making matters worse is that Pat Dean will be starting opposite Kluber. Dean has a 6.88 ERA and 1.648 WHIP in seven starts this year and lately he's been horrific w/ a 10.81 ERA and 2.316 WHIP in the last three. Last Friday was his first start in nearly two months and he surrendered six runs in just three innings of 15-8 loss to Toronto. 10* Run Line Cleveland (-1.5)

10* Run Line Tampa Bay (1:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. Considering what it usually costs to get the added run and half, this price has to be considered a bit of a bargain. Especially w/ the Rays winning last here last night, 4-3. Evan Longoria hit a 2-run HR in the bottom of the eighth last night as the Boston bullpen remains a huge question mark moving forward. While the Red Sox can still make a claim to being the AL's best team due to a league-best +119 run differential, I can make the case that the Rays are a vastly underrated side due to only having a -20 run differential in spite of the fact they are 19 games below .500. Four of the past five meetings between these two have been decided by one run. Therefore, I'm calling for TB to do no worse than a one-run loss here.

The visitors have a starter in top form going Wednesday afternoon. That would be Drew Smyly, who has a sensational 0.712 WHIP his L3 starts. Smyly has allowed a total of just 14 baserunners (9 hits, 5 walks) in 19 2/3 IP. The team had won five straight times w/ him on the mound before losing at Houston on Friday. There, Smyly did not factor into the decision as he gave up only three runs (just two earned) on three hits in six innings of work. Though the Rays and Red Sox have met 15 times this year, Smyly has started only one of those games. But it was certainly a performance worth noting as he delivered eight shutout innings of one-hit ball, finishing w/ a 11-1 KW rate. Incredibly, Smyly is currently working on a 20 1/3 inning scoreless streak against Boston that spans three starts! During the streak, he has allowed only nine hits and has 29 strikeouts. In seven career starts against Boston, Smyly has a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP. Red Sox hitters Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr, Travis Shaw and Brock Holts are a combined 8 for 56 lifetime against him.

Smyly is obviously a big reason why I'm going with the Rays in this one. But Boston has now dropped five of its last seven games overall and is only 8-7 this season vs. the Rays. Their starter for Thursday is Steven Wright and he just allowed 5 ER in his last start to the second weakest offense in the American League (Kansas City). Over his last seven starts, Wright has a 5.04 ERA. 10* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

5* Cleveland (7:10 ET): As you can tell from the odds, this sets up as a complete mismatch. Yes, the Indians have had their fair share of issues w/ the Twins this season (only 6-8 against them). The Tribe also came into this series having dropped five of six overall. But they won last night's opener, 1-0, and that sets them up well for Tuesday. Minnesota is just 1-5 this year following a shutout loss and is in a terrible way right now. Last night's loss was their 11th in a row overall as they continue to sink to the bottom of the American League. Not only do they have the worst record in the league by a 6.5 game margin, their -124 run differential is 30 runs worse than the second worst team. During the 11-game losing streak, they've been outscored by an 83-39 margin. Yikes! Tonight should be an easy win for Cleveland.

The last time that Josh Tomlin started against Minnesota, he went 7 2/3 innings and gave up only one run on six hits. Unfortunately, in seven starts since, he has an 8.53 ERA and 1.579 WHIP. The team has lost each of the last five times he's taken the mound. But this remains a solid starting rotation (#3 in runs allowed among AL teams) and Tomlin has been a big reason why. He's had to face some tough opponents during this recent stretch: Texas, Toronto, Boston and Washington to name a few. Tonight's start will be a huge drop in class and remember the Twins could not score a single run in 10 innings last night. Tomlin has a 3-0 TSR against them this season.

Minnesota goes with Andrew Albers tonight. This will be his first start since 2013! In 21 starts for the club's Triple-A affiliate up in Rochester, Albers went 10-6 w/ a 3.69 ERA, numbers that don't exactly blow you away. I know that Cleveland's offense has been struggling in its own right recently, but this looks to be the spot where they "bust loose." Remember that the Indians are third in runs per game among American League teams. At home, they are one of the highest scoring teams in baseball at 5.7 runs per game. Only Colorado and Boston have scored more in their home parks. The Tribe is also 27-15 this year when facing a left-handed starter (Albers is a southpaw). 5* Cleveland

8* Toronto (7:10 ET): The Blue Jays beat the Orioles last night, 4-1, thereby increasing their lead in the division to four games. (Boston is in between, two games back of Toronto). Baltimore seems to be fading fast as they've now dropped four of five overall. Of course, looking at their YTD run differential, one could have easily predicted this decline. For the season, the O's have outscored opponents by only seven runs. To put that number into some perspective, Toronto's run differential is now +106 for the year. (Boston is +120). With Chris Tillman now out of the equation, even homefield advantage probably can't save the O's against what is simply a vastly superior division foe. Toronto has won four in a row (swept Minnesota over the weekend) and I'm on them Tuesday. 

I think a case could be made that the Blue Jays' starting pitching is quite underrated. Monday saw them get seven-plus innings out of Marco Estrada, who gave up only one run on four hits. Tonight, they turn to JA Happ. Happ had a 12-0 team start record in 12 starts before taking the loss last Thursday vs. the Angels. It was just the third time in his L13 starts that he allowed more than 3 ER. I anticipate him bouncing back tonight as he is already a perfect 2-0 this year vs. Baltimore, both times going seven innings. The last time, he allowed just 1 ER on 3 hits and finished w/ 11 K's. Happ has a 1.08 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.

With Chris Tillman injured, Baltimore is in some real trouble. They are just 51-54 this season in the games NOT started by Tillman (20-6 when he is on the mound). Monday saw them waste a rare solid showing from Wade Miley, who allowed only three runs in seven innings and matched a season-high w/ nine strikeouts. Now, they must turn to a pitcher unlikely to duplicate his most recent performance. Ubaldo Jimenez delivered six strong innings last Thursday in Washington (just 1 ER, 5 hits allowed) yet the team still lost 4-0, so that's another wasted opportunity. Jiminez, back in the starting rotation only due to the Tillman injury, has a 6.38 ERA and 1.86 WHIP this season. That's why I say he's unlikely to duplicate the performance we saw against the Nats. Also, the last time he faced the Jays, he was rocked for five runs in just one-third of an inning! Baltimore now faces its largest deficit of the season in the division race while Toronto is a season-best 19 games over .500 (49-30 L79). The two AL East rivals will continue to head in opposite directions after tonight. 8* Toronto

8* Run Line Cincinnati (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Reds +1.5. Yes, the Reds are having a dreadful season. They are 55-74 w/ a -111 run differential. That's tied for the fifth worst record in all of baseball and only four teams have a worse scoring margin. That being said, the team has been more competitive since the All-Star Break including a winning record (13-12) here in August. The opponent that they face starting Monday is only one-half game ahead of them in the standings and the fact is the Angels have not been priced properly for much of 2016. Prior to the start of this season, I went on the record and said there was no way they'd match their projected season win total of 81. Sure enough, the improper pricing has led to a loss of 15.3 units at the betting window. Reds do no worse than a one-run loss here.

It's not just the overvaluing of the Angels that should lead one to support Cincinnati here. Starter Dan Straily now has a 16-8 team start record as the team has won each of the last EIGHT times he's taken the mound. His last start saw him shut out a much stronger AL opponent (Texas) over six innings as he gave up just three hits. Straily has now allowed 3 ER or fewer in TEN consecutive starts and only once did he not last at least six innings. For the season, opposing hitters are batting just .214 against him. The fact that the Halos are again overpriced is great because it allows us to grab the opponent on the run line at a relatively inexpensive price. But the fact that Straily is on the mound gives the Reds a chance to take the game "outright." His TSR (team start record) is 13-7 this year when an underdog on the money line.

Angels' starter Matt Shoemaker, like Straily, pitched six scoreless innings of three-hit ball his last time out. But theoretically he'll be facing a stronger Reds lineup than usual here as the NL contingent benefits from the addition of a designated hitter. Shoemaker also has a 9-16 TSR for the year, which is a far cry from Straily's record. Poor run support has generally been what has doomed him and I wouldn't put much stock in the fact LA is coming off a 5-0 shutout of Detroit on Sunday. They are only 3-5 off a shutout win here in 2016, plus their interleague record is just 6-11.  8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Run Line Seattle (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Mariners +1.5. As you probably know, Texas comes into the week w/ the best overall record in the American League (77-54). But something that I will continue to harp on is the fact their season run differential is just +5! The discrepancy between the number of wins and the YTD run differential is indicative of extreme overachievement (their "expected" win total is just 66!) and the driving force behind it has been a stunning 29-8 record in one-run games. They won another Sunday, 2-1 over Cleveland, to cap a 3-1 weekend series. Playing this matchup w/ Seattle using the Run Line negates the Rangers' great fortune in one-run games and truth be told, I would not be surprised to see the Mariners come in and take tonight's series opener anyway.

Seattle, though 8.5 games back of Texas in the AL West, has a run differential of +36. They enter today three games back of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. As the regular season continues to approach the finish line, the games obviously become even more important for the M's. Dropping five of their last six games overall has not helped their cause. But they still have a winning record in August (15-10) and I believe that they are the better team here. While only 4-8 head to head w/ the Rangers in 2016, three of those losses have come by a one-run margin.

Tonight's pitching matchup features a pair of Japanese standouts. For Seattle, Hisashi Iwakuma has traditionally pitched well against the Rangers. He's 9-5 in 17 all-time starts (11-6 TSR) w/ a 3.23 ERA and 1.078 WHIP. That includes a quality outing the last time he faced them, back in June, where he allowed just 3 ER (all solo HR's) in 7 IP. The Mariners won that game 7-5. Overall, Iwakuma has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts, including each of the last five. He'll be opposed by Yu Darvish, who has a 4.50 ERA and 1.339 WHIP all-time vs. Seattle (nine starts). In his last start, Darvish allowed five runs and walked five batters, but the team was able to overcome that and still beat Cincinnati (6-5). But it's a more formidable opponent this time around and I find it very interesting that the Rangers offense has collected more than eight hits only one time in the L7 games. The team batting average during that time is .211. The road team does no worse than a one-run loss tonight on ESPN. 8* Run Line Seattle (+1.5)

5* Boston (7:10 ET): Buoyed by MLB's top offense (704 runs scored), the Red Sox still own the best run differential in the American League (+115). But I offered up the qualifier ("still") due to the fact the team is off a disappointing weekend series vs. Kansas City where they dropped two of three games. That includes a 10-4 loss Sunday night where one inning basically decided the game (eight run sixth by the Royals). But getting to stay at Fenway, I'll call for Boston to bounce back Monday at the expense of the last place team in their division. Tampa Bay did just play the Red Sox tough last week (teams split a four-game series at Tropicana Field) including a win w/ tonight's same pitching matchup. But as we saw over the weekend in Houston, the Rays were unable to sustain that success. I'm on the home team. 

Tampa Bay is probably deserving of a better record. While they are languishing at 55-74 for the year, their run differential is only -16. That's a better number than 68-62 Kansas City has (-18). What's really hurt the Rays this year is a 10-20 record in one-run games. But they actually did win a pair of those against Boston last week. One of those came with Matt Andriese facing Rick Porcello. Those two will have a rematch tonight and expecting a repeat of the last outcome seems foolhardy. That's because over his L3 starts, Andriese still has a 7.72 ERA and 1.531 WHIP. He didn't get the win against Boston, mind you, after allowing 3 ER in 6 IP. Rather, the Rays won that game in the 11th inning, helped by a fielding error. Andriese is actually winless over his L13 appearances, six of those starts, and has a 5.63 ERA since the All-Star Break.

Meanwhile, Porcello has been a revelation in the Red Sox rotation, especially in light of the generally poor return on investment the club has gotten out of David Price. Porcello has yet to lose a decision in 13 starts at Fenway Park this season (12-0) and has a 0.831 WHIP his L3 starts overall. He delivered a sixth consecutive quality start at the Rays' expense last Wednesday and now that he's back home I expect an even stronger outing tonight. Overall, Porcello is 17-3 in his 26 starts this season. Boston is a huge favorite for a reason and they can't afford to drop a game like this when in the midst of a tight playoff race. 5* Boston

6* Washington (1:35 ET): The Nats lost to the Rockies yday, 9-4. But that's a misleading score as it was an 11-inning affair. Giving up a pair of two-run homers in final frame was "all she wrote" for Washington, but I don't see any reason why they shouldn't bounce back Sunday. I had them in Friday's series opener and in my analysis reiterated the belief that this is the second best team in all of baseball (behind only the Cubs). Their 75-54 WL record is quite impressive and has them eight games clear of the rest of the field in the NL East. But a +137 run differential says that record should be even better as it has them on an 80-win pace. I look for them to take the series w/ a big win today.

Washington's offense has recorded at least 10 hits in five consecutive games. Facing Chad Bettis today, I see that trend continuing. Bettis has largely been a disaster over his L3 starts w/ a 6.92 ERA and 2.231 WHIP. Somehow the Rockies still slugged their way to a pair of victories during that time. One was at the Nats' expense. Bettis lasted only three innings that day due to rain. Last time out, he made it only through five and allowed four runs in what ended up being a 4-2 loss to Milwaukee. 

The Nats are forced to counter with Lucas Giolito, making his fourth spot start of the year. While the results of the first three are hardly awe-inspiring, here he's facing a Colorado lineup that typically gets much weaker when taken outside of Coors Field. Their scoring average dips by an average of roughly two full runs per game on the road. Again, that nine-run effort yday is a bit misleading considering the extra frames. Remember that Rockies were swept in Milwaukee their previous series, scoring just seven runs in three games.  6* Washington

8* Miami (1:10 ET): A killer 1-0 loss yday against the Padres leaves the Marlins 1.5 games back of the Cardinals for the final NL Wild Card. They were fortunate in that St. Louis also lost Saturday, 3-2 to Oakland. Miami still has the distinction of being one of eight teams (four in each league) that owns a better than .500 record both at home and on the road. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if this team does end up making the postseason. Certainly, the postseason is a pipe dream at this point for the Padres, who are 21 games below .500 (24-41 on the road). They've been outscored by 67 runs over the course of the season (5th worst run differential in National League). This is tantamount to a getaway day for them and I can't see B2B wins. Take the home team. 

Though San Diego scored the game's only run yday, Miami finished w/ more hits (9 to 7). Really, a low-scoring game should have been expected as the Padres are still batting a collective .195 over the L7 games while the Marlins are averaging just 2.6 rpg during that same time. The problem for the Fish on Saturday was they went a horrible 1 for 8 w/ RISP and left eight men on base.  I anticipate that they'll find greater success today against Luis Perdomo, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.593 WHIP on the road this season. Perdomo comes off probably his best outing all season as he held Arizona to only one unearned run over seven innings. But that means regression to the mean is probably a reality for him today. The seven inning outing last Sunday matched a career-long effort. It was just his seventh career start all year.

Maybe Justin Nicolino won't impress you w/ his overall numbers, but the Marlins starter is getting a "second life" here after being recalled from Triple A to replace Andrew Cashner in the rotation. Each of Nicolino's L4 big-league outings took place on the road (one in San Diego). His L2 at home both saw him give up 3 ER or less. Overall. Miami has been a good bounce back team, going 36-25 off a loss this year. San Diego is just 18-34 off a win and 87-115 in that role since the start of 2014. I mentioned the Padres' terrible road record earlier; it turns out they are also a MLB-worst 11-30 in day games too. 8* Miami

5* Toronto (1:05 ET): The price didn't discourage me from taking the Blue Jays yday (they won 8-7) nor will it here. As detailed in yday's analysis, Toronto is the superior team here in virtually every facet of the game. Saturday saw them defeat Minnesota's best pitcher (Ervin Santana) en route to sending the Twins (49-80) to their ninth straight defeat. Minnesota has now been outscored by 120 runs over the course of the season. I'm already on the record as saying the Jays are your likely AL East winner. Since starting the year just 26-26, they've gone on to win 47 of 77 games and enter today one game up on Boston. Again, this being a day game is another edge Toronto really doesn't need. They're now 29-21 in day games while Minnesota is just 18-31.

  Again, the Twins had their best pitcher on the mound yday. But despite that and Santana being handed an early five-run lead, the team still lost. That's not a good sign here for Kyle Gibson dealing with a Toronto offense that's scored 23 times in the first two games of the series. Gibson checks in w/ a 6.16 ERA and 1.789 WHIP his L3 starts after allowing five runs in five innings his last time out. That came on the heels of an ultra-rare CG effort, the lone time in his L5 starts that Gibson made it past the five inning mark. He also didn't make it longer than five innings when he faced the Jays last August thanks to surrendering eight runs. During this nine-game losing streak, Minnesota has been outscored by a whopping 73-33 margin! The club is just 2-7 its L9 games in Toronto.

It will be knuckleballer R.A. Dickey going for the home team today. He's off B2B solid outings where he allowed a total of only three runs in 11 2/3 IP. The team won his last outing, 7-2 over the Angels. That came after a tough 1-0 loss (in New York) his previous time out. That hard luck setback is the only time Toronto has suffered a defeat in the last four times that Dickey has started. Certainly, Minnesota won't be holding the Jays' offense in check like that. Again, it probably should be considered a fortunate win yday considering they faced a 7-3 deficit entering the eighth inning. But, to me, that was the Twins best shot at achieving victory in the series and they blew it. 5* Toronto

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): The teams with the two top records in the American League have exchanged blowout victories to start this four-game set in Arlington. The Rangers took Thursday's opener in 9-0 fashion, but it was the Indians bouncing back in a major way Friday w/ a 12-1 victory. There's been far too many times when Texas has been routed like that this season. Consider that despite being 75-54, they've actually been outscored by three runs! Cleveland, meanwhile, is near the top of the AL in run differential at +96 (trails only Boston & Toronto). Normally, I might be inclined to call for the home team to bounce back here, but I simply believe the Tribe to be the vastly superior ballclub. They win again Saturday!

If the Rangers thought facing Corey Kluber was tough yday, wait until they see Carlos Carrasco tonight. This Indians' starting rotation is a major reason why I think this team could very well end up winning the ALCS. Carrasco has the lowest road ERA in baseball (1.74) and his WHIP is an almost unfathomable 0.772! The team has won 7 of the 10 times he's started away from Progressive Field. Sure enough, last time out he tossed eight scoreless innings of four-hit ball against Oakland, finishing w/ a 9-0 KW rate. Earlier this year, at home, he looked pretty good against these Rangers as well. There he again went eight full innings and allowed just one run on five hits. Overall, the Indians have won 10 of the last 12 times that Carrasco has started on the road against a team with a winning record.

Last night's Tribe win also kept alive a trend that has seen the team not lose more than three in a row at any point this season. After scoring all of three runs the previous four days, Friday saw the offense "bust loose" for 17 hits and I'm anticipating a similar type effort here against the embattled AJ Griffin. The Texas starter has poor marks his L3 starts (7.41 ERA, 1.705 WHIP) and the reality is that his struggles extend even further beyond that. He has a 6.69 ERA over his L8 starts and has allowed at least one home run in 11 consecutive outings. Considering Cleveland came into this series having homered in seven straight games, that could be trouble. 10* Cleveland

10* Under Rays/Astros (7:10 ET): Houston, a Wild Card team last season, finds itself only three games out of playoff position currently after last night's 5-4 win over Tampa Bay. They won w/ B2B home runs in the bottom of the ninth, a bit of a stunning finish considering the Astros had just one hit dating back to the second inning. That kind of loss is all too emblematic for the Rays season as this team finds itself 19 games below .500 and in last place in the AL East despite only a -18 run differential. They've scored the fourth fewest number of runs in the American League while Houston's case for playoff contention is based on the fact that they are #4 in run suppression. While this may sound like I'm making case for the Astros, I'm not. Rather, Under is play Saturday night. Over the L3 seasons, the Under has hit in 13 of 18 overall meetings between these two clubs, including all three games in the previous series this year.

Last year, you did not want to bet against Dallas Keuchel at Minute Maid Park. The eventual Cy Young winner went 16-0 (17-2 TSR) at home in 2015 w/ a 1.45 ERA and 0.902 WHIP. This year has been a bit of a different story w/ him only 3-5 (5-6 TSR), but the WHIP is still strong (1.082) and I think it's case of simply not pitching as many times here. Lately, we've started to see Keuchel flash the form of 2015. He has a 0.818 WHIP his L3 starts including a complete game shutout of Texas back on August 5th. Last time out, pitching in Baltimore, he held the high-powered O's to just two runs and five hits in eight innings of work. The Under is 7-3-1 in Keuchel's home starts this year.

Tampa did hold Houston to only six hits Friday night, the problem was that half of them were home runs. That loss ended up snapping the team's three-game Under streak. Tip your cap though as the Rays' pitching staff just did an excellent job against Boston (#1 offense in MLB), holding them to only six runs in those three games. Blake Snell will be charged w/ keeping the string of solid pitching performances alive tonight and I like the fact that the Under is a perfect 5-0 when he starts on the road. True to form though, the Rays offense has scored only 13 runs total the L5 games. 10* Under Rays/Astros

6* Toronto (1:07 ET): Don't be surprised if the Blue Jays end up winning the American League East. Last year saw them pull off that very feat, but a 93-69 record somewhat undersold their dominance as they led the league w/ a monster +221 run differential (Cubs +219 this year). Like 2015, the Jays got off to a bit of a slow start this year (were only 26-26 through 52 games), but they've since taken flight and are now 16 games above .500 (46-30 L76 games) and again atop their division. Last night was an easy 15-8 win over Minnesota thanks to four home runs. Losers of eight in a row, the Twins find themselves at the opposite end of the AL spectrum as they are 30 games below .500 (49-79), which is the worst record in the league. I anticipate today's game playing out similar to yday.

Marcus Stroman will toe the rubber for the home team here. While he's been a bit of a disappointment overall, he's posted a 2.41 ERA and 1.179 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he held a very good Cleveland team to just one run over 7 1/3 (9-1 KW rate), but hard luck factored him out of the decision (bullpen blew the game). In fact, despite four consecutive quality starts to open August, Stroman has been able to win only once (the one time he started here at home!). That's despite a 34-4 KW rate and allowing just 6 ER in 25 1/3 IP. Back in May, he dominated this Twins lineup, holding them to just three hits in 7 2/3 innings. Stroman is certainly due to break through in the win column from where I sit.

As mentioned earlier, Minnesota has now dropped eight in a row. Resigned to simply "playing out the string", they won't be nearly as motivated today as Toronto, who is in the thick of a playoff chase. Sure, you can make an argument that Ervin Santana gives the underdog a "puncher's chance," but his offense came into this series averaging just 2.6 rpg over its last seven contests w/ a .197 team batting average. Also, there is the matter that Santana is 0-4 vs. Toronto going back to 2011. This being a day game does Minnesota no favors as they own an 18-30 record in that situation. Toronto, meanwhile, is 28-21.  6* Toronto

10* Over Cubs/Dodgers (10:10 ET): One could consider this to be a possible playoff preview. The Cubs are certainly going to be in the postseason and it's very likely that the Dodgers will join them. Therefore, the expectation could be for a low-scoring game. The oddsmakers have hung a relatively low number here and something that I've previously discussed is that - on average - Dodger Stadium sees the lowest scoring games of any venue in baseball at just 7.5 rpg. When you talk about fewest runs allowed, both of these teams are at the top of the list w/ Cubs #1 and the Dodgers #3. But neither has a top flight pitcher going Friday and I think that's something we can take advantage of. Take the Over.

Going for Los Angeles will be Bud Norris. Exactly one week ago he made his return from the disabled list and it did not go well to say the least. Facing the lowly Reds, Norris allowed six runs in just 3 2/3 IP. While he did hold the Cubs to just one run in five innings back in June that was when he was still w/ Atlanta. It should be pointed out that while the Cubs starting pitching garners the majority of the team's headlines, they can hit as well. That's evident by the fact that they are third in all of MLB in runs scored and among NL teams trail only the Rockies (Coors Field). The Cubs have gone 14 straight games scoring at least four runs. They actually average more runs per game on the road (5.4) than they do at Wrigley Field. The Over has gone 5-1 in Norris' last six starts overall. 

Something else we can take advantage of here is the fact the Dodgers were almost no-hit last night. Matt Moore was one out away from pulling off the feat. But note that the Over is 16-5 off the Dodgers' previous 21 losses. Keep in mind we're not very far removed from a two-game span where the Dodgers pounded out 35 hits over a two-game span, including 21 in the series finale vs. the Reds on Monday. Pitching for the Cubs tonight is Mike Montgomery. While he's been relatively effective over three spot starts, Montgomery has averaged less than 5 2/3 innings per start and has given up a home run every time out. This game will end up higher scoring than expected. 10* Over Cubs/Dodgers

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets picked up a much needed win yday at the Cardinals (and my!) expense. That 10-6 victory elevates them above .500, but considering where they were at this time last year, that's a major disappointment. Still, they are only 3.5 games back of the Cards for the Wild Card and if the Metropolitans are to make a move, this weekend would be a great time to start as they welcome in the lowly Phillies. Philly did win Wednesday and was off Thursday, but I have such a low regard for this ballclub as they've clearly overachieved even though they're still nine games below .500. A -126 run differential is the the third worst in all of baseball and says they "should" only have 49 wins (actual win total is 59). I like the Mets here.

Save for one victory against Colorado at home on August 14th, the Phils have not had much success when tonight's starter Adam Morgan is on the mound. Going all the way back to May 15th, Morgan's team start record is 1-10. His numbers are simply not good (6.40 ERA and 1.591 WHIP) and those get slightly worse when pitching on the road. Morgan is off one of of his better starts of the year, but the Phils still lost the game and I find it difficult he'll be able to duplicate that kind of performance here. He's not known for going deep into games and will be throwing to a new catcher tonight as well. Yesterday's trade of Carlos Ruiz means Jorge Alfaro will have to be called up. 

Bartolo Colon has proven himself to be a reliable option in the Mets' rotation this year. There might be a bit of a discrepancy in his ERA and WHIP over his L3 starts, but the YTD numbers are much better than those of Morgan. Colon has faced Philadelphia twice this year and allowed only eight hits in 11 2/3 IP. The last time all three runs allowed were unearned and the Mets won 5-3. Colon comes off an impressive outing where he held the Giants to only two runs over 6 1/3 IP. Despite a 3-4 record the L7 games, Philly is averaging just 2.p rpg during that time. Again, this Phillies team has the greatest discrepancy in the league between actual and expected wins. They are 3-10 as a road underdog in the +150 to +175 range this year. The Mets have won 22 of the L29 times Colon has started a series opener. 8* NY Mets

6* Washington (7:05 ET): Thanks to Max Scherzer, the Nationals were able to salvage a game against the Orioles last night. I had the Under in the one and Scherzer (a huge ML favorite!) was every bit as good as I thought he'd be in shutting Baltimore out. This weekend, Washington gets to stay at home, only it's a drop in class w/ Colorado coming to town. While a clear argument could be made for the Nats being the second best team in all of baseball (behind the Cubs), the Rockies are resigned to "thinking about next year" w/ a record that's seven games below .500 after being swept in Milwaukee of all places. Washington might be a somewhat sizable favorite in tonight's series opener, but the price is certainly justified.

The Rockies did take two of three from the Nationals earlier this month, but that was in Coors Field. You certainly should not expect a game along the lines of the 12-10 win they posted the last time these teams met. It's no secret that when you take this Colorado team out of Coors Field, the offensive numbers dip dramatically. They average a MLB high 6.3 rpg at home, but on the road that numbers drops to 4.2. That has to be "music to the ears" of Nats starter Gio Gonzalez, who will be going for his 100th career win. Twice he's already failed to hit that benchmark, one of those games coming against the Rockies, but the Nats have won each of his L3 starts in D.C. Colorado scored only seven runs total in its last series.

Washington is 5-3 off a shutout win this year, but 26-15 in that role since the start of 2014. Tonight, they'll be going up against a pitcher making just his second career big league start. That would be Jeff Hoffman, whose debut did not go particularly well. Facing the Cubs, he allowed seven runs in just four innings. Call it a "baptism by fire" for Hoffman having to face the top two teams in the National League his first two times out. Overall, Colorado has dropped its last six road games while getting outscored 40-22. Even more troubling is the fact that those six losses came against the Phillies and Brewers, two of the worst teams in baseball. The Nats are 45-28 off a win of any kind this year and should exert their dominance here. 6* Washington

8* Seattle (8:10 ET): I've done quite well betting White Sox games the L2 nights. Tuesday, I took the Pale Hose and was richly rewarded as they pounded the Phillies 9-1. Wednesday, I pivoted to the Under and that too resulted in me cashing a winning ticket (Chicago lost 5-3). Now the Southsiders are welcoming in a far tougher opponent and I'll be on the other side. The Mariners come in w/ a 67-59 record and are three games back of the Wild Card. Yes, they did just lose B2B games to the Yankees at home. But Seattle's YTD run differential of +44 is actually fourth best in the American League and vastly superior to the team they're chasing in the West, Texas, who is a stunning -1! I still believe this team has a great chance of making the postseason and anticipate them having a good weekend, starting w/ a win tonight. 

For years, Felix Hernandez has had to carry a Seattle rotation with little depth. But the backend of the rotation is now stronger and you can count tonight's starter James Paxton among the reasons why. Paxton checks in having dominated the last three American League foes that he's faced. He held Toronto, Boston (#1 offensive team) and Los Angeles to just three runs and 12 hits total in 23 1/3 IP. Now he is coming off a two-week stint on the DL due to a bruised left elbow. But perhaps that will be a "blessing in disguise" as he comes in fresh to face Chicago. Paxton was only two outs shy of a complete game in his last start.

Remember what I said in yday's writeup on the Under? The White Sox are second from the bottom in runs scored among American League clubs. There was a time that this team actually led the AL Central, but that was back in early May when they were 23-10. Since that time, they're a pretty woeful 18 games below .500. Seattle had won 15 of 20 prior to losing its last two games. It seems tough to endorse Chicago starter Ranaudo in this spot as he allowed five runs in just four innings in his first start, which was last week at Cleveland. I'll look for the M's to improve to a perfect 5-0 this season when coming off a shutout loss. 8* Seattle

8* St. Louis (7:15 ET): Last season saw the Cardinals and Mets both win their divisions. The former posted the best regular season record in the National League, but it was the latter that went on to win the pennant. Coming off those respective campaigns, both clubs entered 2016 w/ reasonable expectations of making the postseason again. Well, given the current landscape in the Senior Circuit, it's increasingly likely that only one or possibly neither will make it that far. Right now, it's St. Louis in better position as they enjoy a 1.5 game cushion for the second Wild Card after beating the Mets last night by a score of 8-1. That result leaves New York 4.5 games off the pace and truth be told, they look like a sinking ship. I'm going with the home team in this series finale.

Now the Mets did win Tuesday, 7-4. But for this rubber match, the Cards will be sending Adam Wainwright to the bump. Following B2B disastrous outings, Wainwright bounced back his last time out by holding Philadelphia to only three runs and five hits in 6 IP (StL won 4-3). Now, he gets to face another terrible offense. The Mets rank 29th in runs scored, 29th in team batting average and 27th in OBP. One of their hidden successes last season was how good the offense was on the road (4th in runs scored). This year, they've dropped all the way down to 27th in that department. Obviously, they scored only the one run yday (on just four hits). Wainwright has been really solid at home this year w/ a 3.06 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 12 starts. The team has won 8 of those 12 starts.

One of the real head-scratchers of this MLB season is the fact that St. Louis has a losing record (now 29-34) at Busch Stadium. Last year, they went a MLB best 55-26 in home games. It's not as if the numbers suggest that they've played poorly either here at home. They are basically dead even in runs scored vs. allowed. I feel that this home record of theirs is due to improve. For the year, the team has a top six run differential (+85) in all of baseball. Offensively, they have really come around of late w/ 28 HR's in the L13 games. They are 4th in MLB in runs scored and 1st in home runs. Last night saw them pound out a season-high 19 hits w/ everyone but leadoff man Matt Carpenter collecting at least two. Making just his second career big-league start, I don't like the Mets' Seth Lugo's chances here. 8* St. Louis

10* Under Orioles/Nationals (7:05 ET): Thus far, this series has been an unmitigated disaster from the Washington perspective. They lost the first two games in Baltimore, then last night here at home by a score of 10-8. Out of four plays Wednesday, that was my only loss. Going back to the end of last season, the Nationals have now lost six straight times to their Beltway rivals. Given what the respective run differentials (+135 for Wash, only +28 for Bal) say, I had thought this series would be the Nats for the taking. But, alas, that has not been the case. Obviously, having Max Scherzer on the bump this evening makes them heavy favorites to salvage a game. But the price range is just too high to warrant a premium selection on the Nats given the results of the L3 days. However, Scherzer's prowess does make the Under a smart play. Take the Under.

Do not be fooled by Scherzer's rather modest 16-10 team start record for he leads all NL pitchers in both strikeouts (217) and WHIP (0.96). He has given up 4 ER in B2B starts. But that came after a stretch where he allowed three or less in 12 of 13 starts (going back to June 1). At home, his TSR might only be 5-5, but Scherzer has been especially sharp w/ a 0.865 WHIP. As a result, the Under is 7-2-1 in those 10 starts. The last time he allowed more than 2 ER in a home start was May 27th! Since then, he's allowed just seven runs total in 41 1/3 IP here in D.C. Remember, he's facing an Orioles lineup that is w/o the DH due to this game being contested in a NL park.

Not having the DH in the lineup certainly didn't hinder the O's yday as they exploded for 10 runs. But that's a result we can now exploit to our advantage considering Baltimore is 17-4 Under off its L21 victories. Considering Scherzer is starting, this number looks a little bit high to me. Certainly, the loss of Chris Tillman from the starting rotation hurts the Orioles, especially w/ them having to turn to Ubaldo Jimenez here. But Jiminez did allow only one run in 5 IP his last start, which came back on July 28th. Skipper Buck Showalter figures to have Jimenez on a "short leash" this evening and as we know, no one does a better job at managing the bullpen. There's always the incomparable Zach Britton that Showalter can turn to. Last night, Britton allowed an earned run for the first time in 43 appearances, which had been a MLB record. 10* Under Orioles/Nationals

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Supremacy in the National League West is on the line here w/ the Dodgers currently holding a two-game edge on the rival Giants coming into tonight. Run differential says that LA (+72 vs. +45) is the better team here as does play since the All-Star Break. San Francisco has the worst record in either league since the Break at 11-24. Consider that they had the BEST record in baseball heading into the Break. That's quite the discrepancy and it can be tied to the team's massive reversal of fortune in OPS (on base percentage + slugging) differential. They were eighth in that category in the 1st half, but are 20th in the second half. Last night saw the Dodgers hand the Giants a third straight loss (9-5) and w/ the ESPN cameras rolling tonight, I don't expect them to let up.

Even starts from Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto have not been immune to the Giants' recent futility. The Dodgers have had Bumgarner's number this year, another bad sign for SF fans, going 3-0 against him and last night saw them scored five times off him in five innings. Overall, the Dodgers scored a run in six of the eight innings in which they came up to bat. Cueto has had better success this year vs. LA (2-1 TSR), but also has only one win in the second half (his last time out). The Giants' bullpen has been struggling as well recently and allowed four more runs last night. Note that SF is now just 1-7 its last eight games played at Chavez Ravine.

Starting opposite Cueto will be Rich Hill, making his much ballyhooed Dodgers debut. Hill, who came over from Oakland before the trade deadline, has not started a big league game since the All-Star Break. In spite of pitching for a very bad A's team, Hill has the numbers to justify the Dodgers getting him. In 14 starts, he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.092 WHIP. Theoretically, you'd expect him to benefit by moving to the National League where the pitcher has to come up to bat. Outside of Oakland's hideous ballpark, Hill has a 7-0 team start record this year. Remember that Dodger Stadium sees the fewest number of runs scored per game w/ visitors averaging a scant 3.5. Look for Hill to make a big impact in his Dodgers' debut. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Under Phillies/White Sox (8:10 ET): My increased willingness to fade the Phillies paid off last night as they were routed 9-1 here on the Southside of Chicago. I know that I'm "beating a dead horse," but every time I analyze the Phils I must bring up the their woeful run differential, which took another sizable hit last night and now stands at -128 for the year (3rd worst). So the fact they are still 10 games within the Mendoza Line should not be taken seriously. But for tonight's game, I'm shifting gears from the White Sox to the Under as I refuse to believe that James Shields is as bad as he's looked lately. I've had some bad luck w/ total recently as teams have scored meaningless runs in the ninth inning (see yday's Cubs/Padres game). But hopefully, the home team won't have to come up to bat in the ninth here, giving us an advantage.

Whenever playing an Under, you don't want to see a starter w/ a 21.00 ERA and 3.333 WHIP over his L3 starts. But that's the reality here with Shields, who has actually allowed six or more runs in FOUR consecutive outings, never lasting more than five innings in any of them. But note that he endured a similar four-start stretch when he first came over to the American League and then rebounded w/ six consecutive quality outings where he allowed 2 ER or less every time. So, it's definitely been a proverbial "up and down" campaign for Shields and tonight I feel it will be more "up" as he faces a Phillies offense that's averaging less than 3.0 rpg over the last week. In the last two games, Philly has scored just one run and has gotten only 17 runners on base. For the year, they rank 29th in runs scored, 27th in team batting average, 30th (last) in OBP and 29th in slugging.

The White Sox aren't a great offensive team either as is evident by the fact they are second from the bottom (ahead of only Kansas City) in runs scored among American League clubs. I highly doubt that we'll see them match last night's output. Tonight, they face a pitcher who has seen the Under go 14-6-1 in his L21 starts overall. Jerad Eickhoff is a righty as well and Chicago averages just 3.8 rpg against righty starters. I really like the number we're getting here and don't be surprised if that half run ends up being the difference. 10* Under Phillies/White Sox

8* Texas (7:10 ET): Among the critics, the Rangers have become one of the more divisive teams in all of baseball. They certainly have plenty of talent on hand, but the fact they are 20 games over .500 w/ a negative (-2) run differential is cause for concern. Still, one would think they should be able to take care of business against the hapless Reds. They failed to last night, however, losing 3-0. It was the third consecutive loss for the AL West leaders, but I have them bouncing back tonight behind Yu Darvish. Cincinnati has been respectable since the All-Star Break, but still languishes in last place in the NL Central and is some 18.5 games back of the Rangers' record. Also, the Reds have a -113 run differential (4th worst).

Darvish's first start of 2016 did not come until May 28th. He's made nine starts subsequently and now stands w/ a 2.96 ERA and 1.397 WHIP. However, those numbers somewhat undersell the job he has done considering he has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season! He comes into tonight riding a streak of six consecutive quality outings and has been absolutely dominant in the last four w/ a 1.74 ERA and 22 K's in 20 2/3 IP. Exactly one week ago, he limited Oakland to only two runs in 7 IP. The amount of rest he's had coming into tonight should be considered a positive. Darvish has also dominated National League hitters throughout his career w/ a 7-2 record and 1.90 ERA in 11 starts. Back in 2013, he tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings of four hit ball against Cincinnati.

The Reds are surprisingly a .500 team at home this year (32-32), but Darvish is "due" for some better road fortune considering an 0-4 TSR has come in spite of a 2.66 ERA and 1.099 WHIP. Cincy is just 1-3 off a shutout win this year while Texas is 7-3 when off exactly three straight losses. Tim Adleman surprised w/ a five shutout innings his last time out for the Reds, but still has a 1.65 WHIP his L3 outings and has made it past that five inning mark only once in five tries. Prior to yday's win, Cincinnati was just 4-11 in Interleague Play this season, not to mention 17-38 since the start of 2014. The Rangers justify their highest price of the year on the road w/ a big win Wednesday. 8* Texas

8* Washington (7:05 ET): The Orioles took the first two games of this series, both in Baltimore, but by no means do I believe them to be the better team here. With the scene now shifting to the Nation's capital, I expect that the Nationals will begin to return the favor. Monday saw the Nats get a bit of a "raw deal" when scheduled starter Stephen Strasburg was scratched and sent to the disabled list. They still hung tough, losing only 4-3 in a game that saw each side collect only five hits. Tuesday was a more one-sided affair (O's won 8-1) as rookie Reynaldo Lopez picked a bad time to have his worst outing to date. But tonight's pitching matchup certainly seems to be in the Nats' favor, plus the change in venue is a really big deal considering the O's road record (just 27-34), a far cry from their 42-22 mark at Camden Yards.

In a rotation that includes names like Strasburg and Max Scherzer, it is Tanner Roark that has the best ERA (2.91). Roark's WHIP (1.18) might be slightly worse than than either Strasburg's (1.11) or Scherzer's (0.96), but he's right there w/ them. Also, he comes in w/ a 16-9 TSR including 5-0 the L5 (all quality starts). His numbers have only gotten better as the season has worn on as his ERA & WHIP over the L3 starts are 1.77 and 1.082 respectively. Last time out, he did give up two home runs, but that was about it as the team went on to beat Atlanta, 7-6. I backed Roark that day as the price was way too cheap. I feel such is the case again tonight.

Baltimore will also be w/o its ace for the foreseeable future. News of a Chris Tillman shoulder injury was handed down yday and could not have come at a worse time. While the team has gone 20-6 (.769) in all games started by Tillman this year, they are just 49-50 (.495) otherwise w/ no other starter on the staff having more than seven victories. Tonight's starter Wade Miley has looked like a questionable trade deadline pickup w/ a 9.94 ERA in four starts since coming over from Seattle. Last time out, he gave up six runs in just 1 2/3 IP and that was at home. In addition to the subpar road record, I also question the Orioles due to a mediocre run differential of just +26 for the year, which is way behind their competition (Boston, Toronto) in the AL East. For the sake of comparison, the Nats have outscored their opponents this year by a whopping 137 runs, the second best differential in the sport. 8* Washington

10* Under Cubs/Padres (10:10 ET): As you might have guessed, the Cubs beat the Padres rather easily last night. The final score was 5-1 as all but one Chicago run was a byproduct of a long ball. Meanwhile, the home team managed to get only one runner as far as third base in the first five innings. Needless to say, it was a fairly comfortable win for Under bettors.I expect the same here as San Diego has been held to two runs or fewer in 7 of its last 10 games and will be going up against Jake Arrieta tonight. As for the Cubs, the Under is 23-11-2 in their last 36 games overall. That includes 10-1 when playing the second game of a series. Take the Under.

Though his numbers may not be quite as good as they were in last year's otherworldly campaign, Arrieta remains dominant. In July, the team actually did lose all five of his starts. But he's come back in August w/ three consecutive victories, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.034 WHIP.  On the road, his WHIP is below 1.00 for the year (0.996) and his last time starting away from Wrigley saw him toss eight shutout innings. As discussed above, this Padres lineup is certainly not one to be feared. Tonight will actually be the first time Arrieta has gotten to face them since 2014 when in this park he held to just one run and four hits in six innings. Getting back to what many might feel is a bit of a "disappointing" season for the 2015 Cy Young winner, consider that he is 5th in the league in ERA and is holding opposing batters to a major league low .186 batting average.

San Diego can only counter with Christian Friedrich, who could be making his final start of the season. Long ago, he achieved a season-high in innings pitched. Though he's lost each of his last three starts, note that his WHIP is a not too shabby 1.18. The biggest problem for Friedrich is that the offense failed to score a single run for him in either of his last two outings. They don't figure to do much damage here against Arrieta (Under is 9-2 in Padres' last 11 games vs. starter w/ a sub-1.15 WHIP) either. Following last night's result, the Under is now 7-3 the L10 meetings here in Petco Park. 10* Under Cubs/Padres

8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Remember when the White Sox were in first place in the AL Central? After posting a sterling 23-10 record to start the season, it's basically been downhill ever since. The club has gone 36-54 its L90 games and is essentially out of playoff contention. But I feel this is a series that will allow for them to get closer to .500. All year long, I've shown a desire to play against the Phillies. While it hasn't worked out 100% of the time, more often than not, I've chosen my spots wisely. Yes, the Phils are currently the 5th most profitable team to bet on in MLB (+7.0 net units YTD). But there's no running from the fact that their run differential is an odious -120, third worst in all of baseball. I'm on the home team in this one.

This is the second straight sub-.500 opponent that the White Sox get to welcome into U.S. Cellular Field. Over the weekend, they took two of three from Oakland, winning both Saturday and Sunday. I was on them Sunday in a 4-2 victory. For all the struggles, Chicago still has a winning home record and that includes a 7-3 mark when a ML favorite in the -150 to -175 range. Tonight they'll send Carlos Rodon to the bump. Rodon has made three consecutive quality starts, posting a 2.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP.  Last time out, he allowed only two runs on eight hits in 6 IP vs. Cleveland, but that was not enough as the team fell 5-4. But Rodon's two starts before that both resulted in victories. His TSR when working on four days' rest is 11-4.

Though they are nine games below .500, the Phils have actually had some decent fortune go their way this season as they are 25-16 in one-run games. Their run differential has them on a 49-win pace, something they've far exceeded. In fact, only Texas has a greater discrepancy between actual and expected wins. But I wouldn't expect much luck (or skill) from tonight's starter Jake Thompson, who in three starts has an 8.79 ERA and 1.605 WHIP. He allowed five runs in five innings his last time out. He's yet to last longer than five innings and tonight marks the first time he's had to face a lineup w/o the pitcher coming up to bat. The team is 3-11 its L14 IL road games vs. a lefty including 0-4 L4. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): This is the first time that the Blue Jays and Angels have met this season. Clearly, the status of both teams in the American League pecking order has been well defined by this point. Toronto, even after dropping two of three over the weekend in Cleveland, is in a first place tie with Boston in the East. I have them on my short list for potential AL representatives in the World Series. Then you have the Angels, who are languishing in last in the West. The Halos' projected win total was actually 81, a number I thought was far too high coming into the year. I expect tonight's opener in Toronto to go as you might expect.

One of many problems right now for the Angels is that they simply don't have very good starting pitching. Tonight's starter Tyler Skaggs is emblematic of that problem. Skaggs has just been brutal of late w/ a 9.88 ERA and 2.269 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which are team losses. The fact that the Toronto lineup is now getting healthier can't be good news for Skaggs either. Josh Donaldson returned Sunday and Kevin Pillar is expected back tonight. This is a group that averages 5.2 rpg vs. left-handed starters. They are actually only 17-18 in such games despite outscoring opponents by a full run per game. So that luck is definitely due to turn. Backing up Skaggs will be a bullpen that's w/o the injured Huston Street and Cam Bedrosian. 

The Angels did win in shutout fashion Sunday, 2-0 over the Yankees. But that result masks another issue, that being how dormant the offense was in that series. The Angels scored a total of only three runs at Yankee Stadium in three games, the first two of which were losses. That drops them to not just 9-21 L30 vs. the AL East, but 3-14 their last 17 games overall. All the trends seem to back up the Blue Jays, who are a perfect 5-0 off their previous five losses and 21-10 their L31 home games immediately following a road trip of seven days or more. The Angels have lost five straight series openers and 21 of 28 road games. Toronto will send knuckleballer RA Dickey to the hill tonight and he's pitched well in the past vs. LA, going 6-2 w/ a 3.88 ERA and 1.215 WHIP. There just isn't a single facet of the game where the Angels are superior to the Jays. 8* Toronto

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): The D'backs lost three of four over the weekend, to San Diego, as this nightmare season of theirs continues. Having signed Zack Greinke during the offseason, this front office had its eyes on the postseason for 2016. What a ridiculous notion that is in retrospect as the club is 51-73 w/ a -129 run differential. But speaking of nightmare seasons, you have the Braves, who are the only team with a worse run differential (-153) and corresponding to that is the worst record in all of baseball. Arizona has already swept Atlanta once this year and I've got them taking tonight's series opener as well.

Somewhat surprising is that fact that the D'backs have actually been favored in five of the past seven games. They've won three of those times and if there's one opponent they absolutely should be favored against, it's this one. I'm well aware of the terrible 21-40 home record and that the prior sweep of the Braves came in Atlanta. But they are catching the Braves off a rare win (17-27 in that situation this year) here. The Braves are also just 2-10 in Monday games. Zack Godley looked good his last time out as he allowed just two runs and five hits in 7 1/3 IP vs. the Mets. He was a money line favorite in that start. Arizona can score (6.1 rpg), the question is always can they keep the opposing offense in check? Seeing as the Braves are MLB's lowest scoring team, I'd say the answer for Godley tonight is "yes."

Atlanta had dropped seven in a row before beating Washington yday. They go with Mike Foltynewicz in this spot and he's managed just one quality start in his L6 outings. Foltynewicz has never beaten Arizona in three tries (0-3 TSR) and has a 6.23 ERA against them. On the road, he has a 4.86 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The big issue there is that of the 14 home runs he's allowed this season, 11 have come on the road.  I concede that this is an ugly matchup, but considering neither side has much to play for, I'll hang my hat on Arizona looking to bounce back at home.  8* Arizona

10* Under Red Sox/Rays (7:10 ET): Often times, when division rivals meet, the Under is the way to go. Mangers take less risks and the pitchers are more familiar with the hitters that they are facing. In the case of the Red Sox and Rays, the Under hit twice in the the last three-game series they played (early July) w/ the Red Sox sweeping. In four of the past five meetings, the losing team has been held to two runs or fewer. We know that Boston brings in MLB's highest scoring offense, but its potency dips down to 4.9 rpg away from Fenway Park. Tampa Bay is one of the weaker offensive clubs in the American League, ranking in the bottom five in runs scored. A strong starting pitching matchup should keep scoring in check for tonight's opener. Take the Under.

David Price toes the rubber tonight for Boston. His L4 starts have all managed to go Over the total, but in the last one he allowed one run and four hits against another familiar foe, Baltimore. To echo the sentiment from above, Price's last seven starts against AL East teams have all stayed Under. It's important to note that streak began after facing every division foe at least once in April and May. That 7-0 Under streak includes a pair of starts vs. the Rays, both of which ended up being  4-0 games, one a win for the Red Sox and the other a win for the Rays. In the last, Price looked as good as he has all season by blanking TB for eight innings while allowing only four hits. He had a 10-1 KW rate. Boston comes into this series having just split a four-game series in Detroit. They lost Sunday, 10-5, but are 6-0 Under following the previous six games where they allowed 5+ runs.

The Red Sox are also a perfect 7-0 Under on the road when facing an opponent that has a losing record. Tampa Bay has been better of late (6-1 last 7), but remains in last place in the division at 52-70. The offense is due to cool down after dominating San Diego and Texas. But one positive is that the pitching has allowed an average of just 2.6 rpg (.210 BA) during the 6-1 stretch. That trend should continue tonight w/ Blake Snell pitching as the southpaw has given up 2 ER or fewer in seven consecutive starts. Boston is 16-5 Under its L21 games vs. a left-handed starter. 10* Under Red Sox/Rays

8* Cincinnati Run Line (12:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Reds +1.5. They took the first two games of this series, in shockingly dominant fashion, by scores of 11-1 and 9-2. Yesterday brought a 4-0 shutout loss, but for this afternoon's finale, I see no worse than a one run loss. As you can see, offense has been a bit of an issue for the Dodgers this weekend in the Queen City. They've scored just seven runs total in the three games. Not only did they finish w/ only three hits on Saturday, but the Reds actually outhit them on Sunday. The five-game win streak that was snapped yday afternoon marked Cincy's longest of the season and they're actually in a tie for fourth place now in the NL Central. Take the run line here.

Veteran Homer Bailey will get the baseball this afternoon for the Reds. He's coming off B2B very effective starts w/ a 17-2 KW rate. In 11 innings, he's allowed just two runs - only one earned - and nine hits. This will be just his fifth start since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Though he hasn't faced them since 2014, Bailey has pitched well in the past vs. LA. In nine starts (6-3 TSR), he has a 3.84 ERA and 1.159 WHIP. That's despite having had to go against Clayton Kershaw the L3 times. Twice he beat Kershaw as in all three starts Bailey went seven innings and allowed only two runs. Though it's been a bad season overall for the Reds, they've been much better since the Break (21-13) and have won eight of 10 series.

Dodgers starting pitching had been a disaster in the first two games of the series. Jose Urias put an end to that Sunday, but I wonder what to expect from Scott Kazmir. Yes, Kazmir is 6-0 away from home this year (7-4 TSR), but both his ERA (4.77) and WHIP (1.21) indicate that he should feel pretty lucky to have that record. As a team, the Dodgers still have a losing home record (30-31) while the Reds are actually a .500 club here at Great American Ballpark. Because they're normally an underdog, Cincy is one of just nine teams to be up more than four units at home this year. They do no worse than a one-run loss today. 8* Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* Arizona (4:40 ET): This is certainly not the marquee game on Sunday's card. But for the D'backs, it's a chance to salvage a split and get out of last place. They won yday, 2-1, that coming after the Padres achieved victory in their final at-bat in each of the first two games. Last night, starter Robbie Ray did all he could to ensure victory by allowing only one San Diego hit over seven strong innings that included 13 strikeouts. That one hit was a solo home run. The Padres also didn't help themselves by committing four errors. For today, I relish the opportunity to go against Luis Perdomo, something I did successfully on Monday w/ Tampa Bay. Arizona qualifies as my top MLB play of the week!

This last week has not gone well for the Padres. They've dropped six of eight overall and been outscored by 3.3 rpg over the last seven. In those L7 games, the lineup is batting a collective .199. This being a day game certainly does the home team no favors either; San Diego's 10-29 record in day games is - by far - the worst in all of baseball. Perdomo won't help either. He allowed the first three runs in the 8-2 loss Monday, lasting only 5 2/3 innings. His ERA and WHIP are 5.66 and 1.657 respectively in 13 starts this season. The team has lost the last three times Perdomo taken the mound (5.71 ERA, 1.961 WHIP). He's actually been his worst at home w/ a 6.23 ERA and 1.80 WHIP (four starts). The trends suggest San Diego really "blew one" on Saturday as they are just 9-27 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. They are also 1-4 L5 after scoring two runs or less themselves.

The entirety of Arizona's offense yday came as a result of two throwing errors by Clayton Richard. But, I don't think that there's any denying which of the two teams here has the more potent lineup. The D'backs have averaged 6.3 rpg while batting a collective .299 the L7 games. If we get a quality start from Braden Shipley, then we'll be in very good shape. Shipley may have been rocked his last time out, but that was also the second straight time the Mets were seeing him. In his three starts prior, he'd twice thrown six-plus innings of scoreless ball and allowed only two runs and 12 hits overall in 19 innings of work. San Diego has lost its previous three series. 10* Arizona

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET):  After being embarrassed in the series opener (lost 9-0), the White Sox came back w/ a convincing win of their own on Saturday, beating the A's 9-2. A pitching change for Sunday (Hahn to Neal) means little for an Oakland side that is way out of contention and probably the worst that the American League has to offer. They come into today having been outscored by 99 runs over the course of the year. Only four teams have a worse differential (Phillies, Braves, Reds, D'backs) and as you can see, all reside in the National League. Overall, the A's have dropped six of their last seven. Realistically, Chicago's playoff chances are shot as well, but this is a game and series they should win.

Let's talk about White Sox starter Jose Quintana. While Chris Sale (won yday) is the name that gets the most attention in this rotation, Quintana actually has a slightly better ERA and comparable WHIP. Like Sale, Quintana is a lefty and that means trouble for an Oakland team that is just 30-62 its last 92 games vs. a southpaw starter. Here at home is where Quintana has been at his best w/ a 0.871 WHIP in nine starts. He deserves far better than a 5-4 TSR at U.S. Cellular Field and also far better than a 12-12 TSR overall considering a 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in all starts this season. Those numbers rank 4th and 9th respectively among all A.L. starters! The record would be much better were in not for the worst run support in the league. He comes into today off six consecutive quality outings. After losing to Sale on Saturday, the A's have lost seven straight games when facing a starter w/ a WHIP better than 1.15. So, Quintana should have little to worry about.

Like I said earlier, Oakland making a pitching change from Jesse Hahn to Zach Neal is of little consequence to me. Granted, I would have loved to go against Hahn, who carries a 13.17 ERA and 2.926 WHIP on the road. But Neal hardly installs any fear himself w/ a 5.19 ERA. His numbers get much worse once you factor out relief appearances as his three starts have seen him allow 13 runs in 14 2/3 IP. He allowed five in 5 1/3 last Sunday vs. Seattle (A's lost 8-4) and this will be the first time Neal has started on the road since May when he allowed seven runs in four innings, also against Seattle.  8* Chi White Sox

8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET):  After being embarrassed in the series opener (lost 9-0), the White Sox came back w/ a convincing win of their own on Saturday, beating the A's 9-2. A pitching change for Sunday (Hahn to Neal) means little for an Oakland side that is way out of contention and probably the worst that the American League has to offer. They come into today having been outscored by 99 runs over the course of the year. Only four teams have a worse differential (Phillies, Braves, Reds, D'backs) and as you can see, all reside in the National League. Overall, the A's have dropped six of their last seven. Realistically, Chicago's playoff chances are shot as well, but this is a game and series they should win.

Let's talk about White Sox starter Jose Quintana. While Chris Sale (won yday) is the name that gets the most attention in this rotation, Quintana actually has a slightly better ERA and comparable WHIP. Like Sale, Quintana is a lefty and that means trouble for an Oakland team that is just 30-62 its last 92 games vs. a southpaw starter. Here at home is where Quintana has been at his best w/ a 0.871 WHIP in nine starts. He deserves far better than a 5-4 TSR at U.S. Cellular Field and also far better than a 12-12 TSR overall considering a 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in all starts this season. Those numbers rank 4th and 9th respectively among all A.L. starters! The record would be much better were in not for the worst run support in the league. He comes into today off six consecutive quality outings. After losing to Sale on Saturday, the A's have lost seven straight games when facing a starter w/ a WHIP better than 1.15. So, Quintana should have little to worry about.

Like I said earlier, Oakland making a pitching change from Jesse Hahn to Zach Neal is of little consequence to me. Granted, I would have loved to go against Hahn, who carries a 13.17 ERA and 2.926 WHIP on the road. But Neal hardly installs any fear himself w/ a 5.19 ERA. His numbers get much worse once you factor out relief appearances as his three starts have seen him allow 13 runs in 14 2/3 IP. He allowed five in 5 1/3 last Sunday vs. Seattle (A's lost 8-4) and this will be the first time Neal has started on the road since May when he allowed seven runs in four innings, also against Seattle.  8* Chi White Sox

10* Under Brewers/Mariners (9:10 ET): This would appear to be a giant mismatch on paper as Felix Hernandez and Seattle are heavily favored to "take care of business" against the lowly Brewers. The Mariners won last night 7-6, which was their seventh consecutive victory here at Safeco Field. They've now won 11 of their last 14 games overall, leaving them just two games out of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, making the playoffs is not something even being discussed in Milwaukee considering the Brew Crew have lost five in a row to fall into a last place tie with the Reds. As much as having King Felix on the mound helps Seattle's cause, it's also a boon to betting the Under here and I feel that is the far better value, especially w/ the likelihood of the home team not having to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth.

This will be Hernandez's seventh start since coming off the disabled list. The team has gone 5-1 in his previous six. The first four all landed Over the total, but the L2 have both stayed Under. In those two starts, both team wins, Hernandez has allowed only three runs and seven hits in 13 2/3 IP. Remember that this is one of the best Interleague pitchers of all-time. He has dominated the NL to the tune of a 22-10 team start record. He's made three such starts this season, twice allowing 2 ER or less, and all three came on the road. Seattle's bullpen, though it had some trouble last night, has been very effective of late. They have a 1.17 WHIP at home this season. I don't envision we'll be seeing a repeat of last night where both teams piled up runs late.

Perhaps Milwaukee's only shot in this game is Wily Peralta. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in six of his last seven starts. He too spent extended time on the DL. On Sunday, in just his second start back, he held the Reds to just one run on four hits. That was his third consecutive start giving up five or fewer hits. The much stronger starting pitching matchup tonight should lead to a dramatic decrease in the # of home runs we see hit (there were SIX total last night). Also, the Brewers are one of the worst offensive teams in the majors as they average only 3.8 rpg on the road and 3.6 rpg vs. RH starters. While the result likely remains the same (Seattle win) from last night, look for a much more low-scoring game. 10* Under Brewers/Mariners

8* LA Dodgers (7:10 ET): In the thick of a playoff race, the Dodgers can't afford to be dropping games to the likes of the Phillies and Reds. Yet, that's precisely what they've done over the last two days, losing 5-4 in the City of Brotherly Love on Thursday and then 9-2 in the Queen City last night. With the Giants winning each of the L2 days, LA now finds itself one-half game back in the NL West. But, last night's result aside, let us not forget that "the Reds are the Reds." This is a team that's now matched its longest win streak all season at four games and is -113 in run differential for the year (tied for 3rd worst). After being embarrassed last night, I fully anticipate the Dodgers bouncing back here.  They are still 9-1 L10 games vs. Cincinnati.

The Dodgers are starting to get healthier. Of course, they won't rest easy until Clayton Kershaw returns. But until then, they need to get better efforts from the starting rotation than what Bud Norris gave Friday. Enter Brett Anderson, whose 2016 debut was a disaster as he allowed five runs on five hits and lasted only one inning Sunday vs. Pittsburgh. But Anderson has pitched well previously against the Reds, allowing just 3 ER in 12 1/3 IP. He won both starts w/ Cincy hitters batting just .224 against him. Again, Cincy has not produced a win streak of more than four games all season. They are also just 8-17 vs. left-handed starters, including 1-4 their L5 at home. I expect Anderson to turn it around this evening. 

Cincinnati will go w/ Brandon Finnegan, whose sample size is large enough that we can start to draw conclusions. In 24 starts, his TSR is 9-15 and he has a 4.54 ERA and 1.418 WHIP. That's all very subpar to say the least and the last time he went longer than six innings was well before the All-Star Break. Remember that the Reds have a very bad bullpen. The team is also just 3-8 in Finnegan's L11 starts here at Great American Ballpark. He's allowed a total of four home runs in his last two outings. Again, Cincinnati is just a very bad team. They're only 28-60 the L88 games vs. teams with a winning record. I can't see the Dodgers dropping two in a row to this lowly opponent. 8* LA Dodgers

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Thanks to their own win and a Dodgers loss, the Giants are back in first place in the NL West by one-half game. This afternoon sees them looking to continue to take advantage of the rapidly fading Mets. San Francisco had its own issues coming into this series, namely a 9-21 record since the All-Star Break. But they look to be turning that around as they've beaten the Mets B2B days, scoring 18 runs in the process. Last night saw them win in dominant fashion, 8-1. For the Mets, that result leaves them w/ a 6-12 record in August as they've now lost three straight and 7 of 10 overall. Today's game being an afternoon affair is a big deal as the Giants own MLB's best record in day games at 27-15. Go with the home team.

On paper, the acquisition of lefty Matt Moore was a good one for the Giants. Assuming the team makes the postseason, Moore would be a deadly #3 starter behind Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. Unfortunately though, he's still yet to taste victory with his new team. In three starts, he's posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.444 WHIP as he's allowed nine runs and 14 walks in 18 innings. Theoretically, you would expect him to improve moving over to the National League. He did just allow five runs in his last start, but a date w/ the Mets is just what "the doctor ordered" from where I sit as they rank 29th in runs scored, 29th in team batting average and 26th in OBP. With Jay Bruce now only 12 for 68 at the plate since coming over from Cincinnati, he'll reportedly be out of the lineup on Saturday.

After being swept here at home by Pittsburgh, the offense has really picked up the Giants the L2 days. They've scored the 18 runs on 32 hits, raising the team batting average to .328 over the past week. Day games have seen them outscore the opposition by 1.2 rpg and the pitcher they face today (Bartolo Colon) has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts vs. the NL West. Colon hasn't pitched at AT&T Park since last July when he gave up 10 hits and the Mets were shutout. The team has now sunk below .500 (60-62) w/ a negative run differential (-16) and has the look of a group is disarray. They've allowed a total of 46 runs in the L5 games. 8* San Francisco

10* Arizona (10:40 ET): Last night's opener in San Diego saw the home team put a halt to a five-game losing skid. But that 9-8 win for the Padres is not likely to be a sign of things to come. Consider that the nine runs they scored last night surpassed their entire offensive output during those previous five games (scored only six runs). Tonight, they'll have to face Zack Greinke. While Greinke might not be having the kind of season the Arizona front office envisioned, he does have an 8-1 team start record on the road. He's also pretty much dominated the Padres throughout his career, going 7-1 in 14 starts (11-3 TSR) w/ a 1.91 ERA and 0.830 WHIP. As we know from previous discussions of Arizona this year, they have a very atypical home-road split w/ the record being far better away from Chase Field.

The D'backs have the second worst home record in all of baseball at 21-40. But on the road, they're a far more reputable 29-31, which has worked itself out to a pretty decent net gain of 5.6 units. That includes a 5-1 mark when priced in the -125 to -150 range, which is where the are tonight. While it was a loss last night (as a shorter favorite on the money line), they did manage to outhit the Padres (14-12) and had the lead going into the bottom of the eighth. I already mentioned Greinke's road record and his career-long domination of San Diego. To build on that, he is 3-1 w/ a 1.69 ERA in eight career starts at Petco Park. Yes, he is coming off a disastrous outing Sunday in Boston. But in his 10 starts prior to that one, he'd gone 8-0 w/ a 2.47 ERA. As far as the opponent goes, this is a big drop in class for Greinke after facing the top offense in the game his last time out.

Before winning last night, the Padres had been hammered by Tampa Bay for three games, getting outscored 25-3. That was w/ a DH in the lineup, mind you. After a win this season, San Diego is just 17-31. The offense is batting a collective .185 the L7 games. Tonight's starter Jarred Cosart might be coming off a solid showing his last time out, but the team still lost and his WHIP (1.676) for the year remains far too high for my liking. Note that the Padres are also 0-6 the L6 times they scored 5+ runs in the previous game. 10* Arizona

8* Washington (7:35 ET): Why wouldn't I come back w/ the Nats again today? I had them last night as they beat the Braves 8-2. They're now 9-1 head to head vs. Atlanta in 2016. As I said in yday's analysis, that head to head record should not come as any shock considering where these two division rivals currently reside in the standings. There's a compelling arguement to be made that Washington has actually underperformed this season, given that they have the run differential (+143) of 77-win team (actual record is "only" 71-49). Only the Cubs have a better win percentage/run differential. Meanwhile, the Braves have the worst record (44-77) and run differential (-151) in all of baseball. The mismatch continues Friday.

I'll again reprise yday's analysis by mentioning Atlanta's home record is now 18-41. That's a net loss of 19.5 units. They've been outscored by an average of 1.5 rpg here at Turner Field, which is just awful. Washington, on the other hand, continues to be road warriors w/ the second best away recrord in MLB at 35-26. That includes a 10-4 mark when in the -125 to -150 price range. By the way, this mismatch extends far beyond just 2016.  The Nats are now 23-5 their last 28 games vs. the Braves. It's not like Atlanta is playing well now either; they've dropped seven of their last eight and been outscored 58-28 in the process!

With this being such a mismatch on paper, the Braves need some sort of aid in the pitching matchup. They do have Julio Teheran going tonight and while the numbers clearly illustrate he's been their best pitcher, his team start record remains among the very worst in all of baseball (5-16). That's due to a pathetic Braves offense that has scored three runs or fewer in 15 of those 21 starts. This will also be Teheran's first big-league start since spending time on the DL. He is 0-5 at home w/ a 1-11 TSR. Teheran will be opposed by Tanner Roark, the "silent success" of this Washington rotation as he comes having won each of his L4 starts, the last one being vs. these very Braves. He allowed just one run on five hits on Sunday, improving to 5-1 w/ a 1.77 ERA in nine career starts vs. Atlanta. 8* Washington

8* Washington (7:35 ET): Why wouldn't I come back w/ the Nats again today? I had them last night as they beat the Braves 8-2. They're now 9-1 head to head vs. this division rival in 2016. As I said in yday's analysis, that head to head record should not come as any shock considering where these two teams currently reside in the standings. There's a compelling argument to be made that Washington has actually under-performed this season, given that they have the run differential (+143) of 77-win team (actual record is "only" 71-49). Only the Cubs have a better win percentage/run differential. Meanwhile, the Braves have the worst record (44-77) and run differential (-151) in all of baseball. The mismatch continues Friday.

I'll again reprise yday's analysis by mentioning Atlanta's home record is now 18-41. That's a net loss of 19.5 units. They've been outscored by an average of 1.5 rpg here at Turner Field, which is just awful. Washington, on the other hand, continues to be road warriors w/ the second best away record in MLB at 35-26. That includes a 10-4 mark when in the -125 to -150 price range. By the way, this mismatch extends far beyond just 2016.  The Nats are now 23-5 their last 28 games vs. the Braves. It's not like Atlanta is playing well now either; they've dropped seven of their last eight and been outscored 58-28 in the process!

With this being such a mismatch on paper, the Braves need some sort of aid in the pitching matchup. They do have Julio Teheran going tonight and while the numbers clearly illustrate he's been their best pitcher, his team start record remains among the very worst in all of baseball at 5-16 (including 1-11 at home). That's due to a pathetic Braves offense that has scored three runs or fewer in 15 of those 21 starts. This will also be Teheran's first big-league start since spending time on the DL. Teheran will be opposed by Tanner Roark, the "silent success" of this Washington rotation as he comes having won each of his L4 starts, the last one being vs. these very Braves. He allowed just one run on five hits on Sunday, improving to 5-1 w/ a 1.77 ERA in nine career starts vs. Atlanta. 8* Washington

9* Washington (7:10 ET): Given their respective places in the NL East, it should come as little shock to find that the Nationals are 8-1 against the Braves this season.  If this "history lesson" sounds familiar, it's because it wasn't even a week ago that I took the Nats to beat the Braves, citing a similarly low price range. Washington won that game 7-6 and then took the series w/ a 9-1 win the following day. They come off B2B losses in Colorado, but should get on back track here. I say that not only because of the head to head domination, but also the fact the Atlanta has - by far - the worst home record in baseball at 18-40. Minnesota, the worst team in the American League, just came here to Turner Field and took a pair of games in dominant fashion. I have Washington rated as the second best team in all of baseball, so they should have little difficulty tonight, or this entire weekend for that matter.

Just like Saturday's play on the Nats, the money line here is simply way too low. Again, it's because Reynaldo Lopez is starting. But, the oddsmakers clearly didn't learn their lesson from the last time around as Lopez was able to go seven innings w/ allowing only one run on five hits. The game didn't get "close" until late. Meanwhile, counterpart Rob Whalen allowed six runs in just five innings of work in that game. Lopez vs. Whalen is the pitching matchup again tonight and I see no reason why the result would be any different the second time around. Through three starts, Whalen has a 7.31 ERA and 1.250 WHIP.

Yesterday marked just the second time all season that Washington allowed 10+ runs. They are 8-3 coming off such a game the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, yday marked the ninth time this year that Atlanta has allowed 10 or more runs. They are just 2-6 this year in this situation. Even after losing the L2 days, the Nats still have a 34-26 road record, which is the third best win percentage in MLB. They are 5-1 their last six road games against teams whose win percentage is below .400 at home. Admittedly, that's only Arizona and Atlanta, but no one has been worse than the latter at home this year and incredibly that 18-40 home record for the Braves has seen them get outscored by an average of 1.4 rpg! 9* Washington

6* Cleveland (7:10 ET): In addition to liking the Over, I'm also on the Indians here. Remember that some times one team can take care of the Over by itself. Like Tampa Bay did for me on Tuesday in a 15-1 win over San Diego. I'm not guaranteeing that this one ends up that lopsided, but given the longshot odds on the White Sox, it certainly could. I should also point out that Danny Salazar was dominant back in June when he went 5-0 in five starts w/ a 1.91 ERA. In the five subsequent starts, things didn't go nearly as well, but that can probably be attributed to the elbow issues he was experiencing. One can only assume those issues are now clear and Salazar will regain his previous form. He's won both starts against Chicago this year, allowing just three runs and seven hits in 12 innings. Yesterday's result also snapped a seven-game losing streak for the White Sox against the Indians. In all seven games, Chicago was held to just three runs or fewer. Indians are 5-0 off their previous five losses while the White Sox are 1-6 off their last seven wins. Look for the Indians' offense (see 'Over' analysis) to carry the team in this one. 6* Cleveland

    

10* Over White Sox/Indians (7:10 ET): These two combined for 17 runs in last night's game. The White Sox, surprisingly enough, were the 10-7 winners. It was a brutal loss for Tribe fans as an Adam Eaton ninth inning grand slam decided the game in the top of the ninth. Note, however, the game had still gone way Over the total before then. In fact, anyone who bet the Over last night was holding a winning ticket by the fourth inning! For tonight, Danny Salazar might mitigate some of the damage on the Indians' end, but I lack that same kind of faith in Chicago's starter Carlos Rodon. Salazar, for the record, will be making his first start since coming off the DL. He had a 7.81 ERA and 1.815 WHIP his L3 starts. Those all resulted in Overs. I'm on the Over in this one.

When betting Cleveland home games this year, the Over has turned into quite the prudent wager. It has gone 35-20-3 in all of their games at Progressive Field this season, which save for Target Field in Minnesota is the highest rate in the American League. A major reason for that is the team averages a whopping 5.9 rpg at home. Only Colorado (Coors Field) and Boston (#1 offense overall) average more runs per home game. Over the past seven games, all of which have come here at home, the Indians are averaging 7.0 rpg w/ a team batting average of .348. Not that they necessarily needed the help, but Brandon Guyer has been a bit of a revelation since coming over via trade w/ Tampa Bay. He's batting .654 (17 of 26) in 11 games with Cleveland.

Rodon has a pretty high ERA (4.32) and WHIP (1.486) this season. That being said, he is coming off B2B quality starts. But that was only after a three-start stretch where he'd allowed 15 runs and 25 hits (six of them home runs!) in just 16 IP.  Note that the Over has gone 19-6-2 in the last 27 games w/ Adrian Johnson behind home plate. It is also 40-18-2 in the Indians' last 62 home games vs. teams w/ a losing road record. This season, the White Sox are 28-36 outside of U.S. Cellular Field. 10* Over White Sox/Indians

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): With Noah Syndergaard on the hill last night, the Mets were able to salvage a game here in the desert, but the fact remains this sinking ship is going down fast. The magic of last year's World Series run simply hasn't been there in 2016. The contingent from Queens has seen its run production dip dramatically, particularly on the road. Tuesday's 7-5 win was the Mets' first this year against the Diamondbacks, a brutal reminder of opportunities lost this season. They are still only three games out of the Wild Card in the N.L., but again, it just doesn't seem like their year. The offense ranks 29th in runs scored (ahead of only Atlanta) and they don't have one of their better starting pitchers going tonight.

The Mets offense has really bad this year. If it seems like I'm beating a "dead horse" here, then I apologize. But this is one of just four teams in baseball that doesn't average at least 4.0 rpg. They've scored 65 runs fewer than 21st place team in runs scored. On the road, is where the real decline has hit. They've dropped from 4th (last year) to 27th in runs per game there. Now, we have seen them score 13 runs in the two games so far here in Arizona. But tonight they'll be facing an unfamiliar name in Zach Godley, who returns from bullpen duty where he held opponents to a .174 average his L3 appearances. It also must be pointed out that the Mets are just 3-13 off a win coming into tonight.

Starting pitching was a real strength last year for the Mets, but that same group has been hit by injury in 2016 and outside of Syndergaard, it's been regression across the board. Jon Niese has been brought in for a second tour of duty (pitched here for eight years), but he's not the same pitcher he once was. Following a 5-0 TSR in April, nine of his next 13 starts ended up in losses for his previous team, the Pirates. He comes in w/ a 6.45 ERA and 1.752 WHIP his last seven starts. Arizona has had no problem getting on base in this series as they've collected 25 hits and five walks. Once they're on base, they've largely run wild. They had four stolen bases yday, increasing the YTD total vs. the Mets to 19. It looks like sharp money is moving this line in the direction of Arizona, who has gone up as a favorite despite getting fewer # of bets. 10* Arizona

8* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): I rode the Dodgers to a dominant 15-5 win yday and will come right back w/ them again tonight. Again, I must reiterate just how bad the Phillies actually are. Sure, they might be "only" eight games below .500, but that doesn't even begin to tell the "real story." They have the run differential (-108) of a 48-win club (actual record is 56-64). Their discrepancy between actual and expected wins is the largest in the entire National League. That run differential is actually fourth worst in all of baseball. In yday's analysis, I stated that they would be unable to handle this step up in class and they didn't. It'll be more of the same Wednesday.

The Dodgers have now pulled ahead of the rapidly falling Giants in the NL West. The next six games, while all on the road, offer an excellent opportunity for them to increase their lead in the division. Not only are the next two against the Phillies, but they'll be spending the weekend in Cincinnati. Last night was total domination and tonight should be no different. In three wins over the Phillies this month, the Dodgers have scored nine or more runs. That kind of run support should be more than enough for Wednesday starter Scott Kazmir, who remains unbeaten on the road (5-0) due to a 1.120 WHIP. Chase Utley, making his return to the City of Brotherly Love, was the catalyst last night w/ a pair of home runs including a grand slam.

Kazmir actually pitched well last week vs. the Phillies. He gave up only two runs and four hits over six innings. But the bullpen couldn't get the job done in what ended up being a 6-2 setback. Jeremy Hellickson offered a strong counter to Kazmir last Wednesday, allowing only one run in 5 IP. But it won't be Hellickson going for the Phils tonight, rather they'll send out rookie Jake Thompson. This is just his third career start in the big leagues and the Dodgers are, by far, the toughest opponent to date. As a team, Philadelphia is only 12-30 its L42 games vs. an opponent with a winning record. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Washington (3:05 ET):  This is the finale of a three-game set here at Coors Field. The Nats took Monday's opener 5-4, which was also a winner for me. Tuesday (no play from me) featured a lengthy rain delay (2 hours) and after it was over the Rockies' bullpen took control. It ended up being a 6-2 win for the home team, which snapped a four-game losing streak. But the bottom line is Colorado is still only 2-8 its L10 games and hasn't won B2B games in two weeks. I fully anticipate Washington bouncing back here as they have Stephen Strasburg on the mound. While Strasburg is off B2B rough outings, he's been outstanding on the road (as has the team) all season long. Last night aside, the "Coors Field effect" is not enough to counteract the talent discrepancy that exists between these two ballclubs.

I said it in Monday's analysis and I'll say it again now. Washington has emerged as the second best team in baseball, behind the Cubs. They enter Wednesday w/ a 70-48 record, having outscored opponents by 139 runs. That run differential works out to a win expectation of 75 games, so an argument can be made that they've actually underperformed to this point. However, there is no arguing that the Nats have been a fantastic road team this year. Their 34-25 record away from home is the second best mark in MLB. They are one of just three teams to average at least 5.0 rpg away from home and one would think this venue will serve to further aid them offensively. I like the prospect of them facing Jon Gray, who has been a disaster in his L2 starts, giving up 15 runs in just 8 IP. Gray has a 4.55 ERA in 21 starts overall this season.

Strasburg himself will be looking to bounce back from B2B poor efforts. But he's often saved his best work for the road where he is 8-0 in nine starts w/ a 1.70 ERA and 0.977 WHIP. In three career starts at Coors Field, he's never allowed a home run. In two starts against the Rockies last year (one home, one here), all Strasburg gave up were two runs, one unearned, in 14 IP. He allowed just five hits total and had a 17-0 KW rate. The Nationals are 4-0 off their previous four losses while the Rockies are 0-7 off the L7 games where they scored 5+ runs. This looks like an easy win for the road team on getaway day. 8* Washington

10* Under Pirates/Giants (10:15 ET): The Under proved to be an incorrect call for last night's series opener, but I'll come right back w/ it in game #2 between the Pirates and Giants. Pittsburgh was actually able to put Monday's opener Over by themselves w/ a shocking eight-run effort against Matt Moore and company. While the Bucs also scored 11 runs on Sunday (beat the Dodgers), they go from facing a pair of southpaw starters to a righty. That's key because in games when they are facing a southpaw starter, they average 5.8 rpg (most in baseball!). Against righties, that average dips all the way down to 4.2 rpg. The Under is 11-3 for Pittsburgh their L14 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

The right-hander that Pittsburgh will be facing tonight is Jeff Samardzija. He has seen the Under cash in each of his previous four starts. Now, much of that "credit" goes to the Giants offense being almost non-existent. In those four starts, they've totaled only five runs for the former Notre Dame wide receiver. But his last time out, at Miami, Samardzija did hold the opponent scoreless over 5 2/3 innings while also allowing only three hits. That's definitely an encouraging sign. So too is the fact that Samardzija will be taking the hill on five days' rest. The Under is 5-1-1 the L7 times he's done so.

The Bucs will send out Jameson Taillon, who has seen the Under cash in each of his L3 starts. Given how "lights out" he's been recently, he should keep the Giants in check and the game close. Taillon has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six outings and on Thursday we saw him blank San Diego for eight innings of three-hit ball. I use the phrase "we saw him" because I backed Taillon and the Pirates in that spot. This looks to be yet another favorable matchup for him considering the Giants are now a MLB-worst 9-19 since the All-Star Break. Still, I'm concerned about a lack of run support here given that the Bucs are facing a righty themselves. While not nearly as effective as they were last season, Pittsburgh's bullpen still has produced a 2.88 ERA on the road in 2016.  This should end up being a low-scoring game. 10* Under Pirates/Giants

8* Texas (8:05 ET):  The Rangers, like the Phillies, are an overachiever. Why then would I be willing to endorse one and not the other? Well, the big difference is that the Rangers are at least a mediocre team (by the numbers) with an excellent record. In fact, they come into Tuesday with the best record in the entire American League (70-50)! That's in spite of a pedestrian +2 run differential for the year. Maybe that discrepancy is cause for concern down the line (i.e. playoffs), but not here against the downtrodden A's, whom they defeated yday by a score of 5-2. Oakland has the worst run differential in the whole A.L. (-99), so by comparison, Texas' own run differential should not be scoffed at in this particular series.

Over the last two seasons, the Rangers have consistently been priced far too low by the oddsmakers. The result has been them turning what is easily the biggest profit (+55.2 units!) at the betting window. No other team is even close to that number (Kansas City is #2 at +27.5 and that's basically all last season). The mispricing is again a mistake tonight as there's just no way Texas should be this low on the ML, at home, against this weak of an opponent. Consider that the Rangers are now 37-20 at home. Only the Cubs and Orioles have better home records. Starter Lucas Harrell, admittedly, will not blow you away with his numbers. But the team is 8-1 its last nine games vs. an opponent w/ a losing record, plus 22-8 their L30 after allowing two runs or less the previous game.

Were it not for "one swing of the bat" (grand slam) by Adrian Beltre last night, the Rangers would have lost. Prior to that decisive at bat, they had been struggling offensively and now they may be w/o Shin-Soo Choo for the remainder of the season. But for tonight, I do not foresee any issues when facing embattled Oakland starter Andrew Triggs. Triggs has bounced back and forth between the minors and here, making only two big league starts all year. Neither went particularly well as he's allowed four runs and eight hits in a total of just seven innings pitched. This will be his first start on the road. In the bullpen, the A's may be looking to decrease their usage of Ryan Dull as his number of innings pitched has already reached a career-high level. Oakland is just 13-33 its L46 road games vs. teams with winning records. 8* Texas

    

10* Over Padres/Rays (7:10 ET): In last night's series opener, I had the Rays. Maybe the game wasn't always as lopsided as the final score indicates (TB scored five times in the bottom of the eighth), but it was still a win. I said that you should expect very little from an already struggling Padres lineup against Drew Smyly and sure enough the lefty gave us seven solid innings, allowing only a solo home run. San Diego finished the game with only three hits. Yet, Over bettors were still able to cash a winning ticket thanks to the Rays' big eighth inning. I think they will again here as the Padres have been a strong Over team in IL play all season (12-3 O/U record!), plus the Rays have now scored a total of 20 runs in the L2 games. Take the Over.

San Diego's much maligned offense was a big reason I said to take the Rays last night. So, why the change to the Over here? Well, a big reason is that they'll go from facing Smyly (who has been red hot) to Blake Snell, who carries a pretty bad WHIP into tonight's contest. For the season, Snell's WHIP is 1.518, well below average. Over his L3 starts, the number jumps to 1.865. That's due to him allowing five runs in only 1 2/3 IP his last time out. He also walked four batters. Walks have been an issue for Snell, which is why his WHIP is so much worse than his ERA. With Snell starting, we should be getting an improved offensive effort from the Padres tonight. They still are averaging nearly 6.0 rpg vs. American League opponents (in 15 games) this season. Of course, they should theoretically benefit from now having a DH in their lineup.

San Diego also has given up plenty of runs in IL play. Yesterday was right on average w/ eight runs allowed (allow 8.0 rpg in IL play for the season). The end result of this is that the Over is 12-3 for them in IL play w/ an average of nearly 14.0 rpg scored! I already mentioned that Tampa Bay has scored a total of 20 runs the L2 days. Well, tonight will be the third straight game they benefit from facing a lousy starting pitcher (Luis Severino, Luis Perdomo). In this instance, it won't be a Luis, but it will be Edwin Jackson. He is coming off a shockingly good performance last week in Pittsburgh. But I put little stock into what we saw there as it was - by far - Jackson's best outing of 2016. Tampa Bay is 9-1 Over its L10 games overall and 8-0 Over the last eight home games where they've faced a right-handed starter. San Diego has gone Over in four straight IL games when facing a southpaw. 10* Over Padres/Rays

    

8* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): By any objective measure, the Phillies would not be considered a very good baseball team. But having just swept the Rockies over the weekend (here at home), they've actually climbed to only seven games shy of .500. Again, that may not sound all that impressive. But, considering what the metrics suggest the team's record "should" be, the City of Brotherly Love should be thrilled. This is a point I've been harping on all season. The Phils have a very bad run differential (-98), actually the fourth worst in all of baseball. Based on that run differential, one would "expect" them to have a record of 48-71. That's an eight win differential between actual and expected for this overachiever. I do not believe their good fortune will last. Especially not here as they step up in class to face the Dodgers.

Los Angeles is currently in a dogfight with the rival Giants in the NL West. With San Francisco in freefall mode (they lost again last night), Dodger Blue is now just one-half game out of first place in the division. This series, against an out of contention opponent, is a great chance for them to pull ahead. There have been two previous series played between these teams in 2016. Both times LA took two of three. The previous one took place last week at Chavez Ravine. Kenta Maeda, who gets the baseball tonight for the Dodgers, won his start and was a -215 favorite on the money line. He's a much cheaper option here, on the road, and I would consider it to be case of him being priced far too cheaply by the oddsmakers. I say that knowing Maeda is 7-2 in road starts this year, sporting a 0.978 WHIP. Over his L14 starts overall, he has allowed 3 ER or less 11 different times.

Opposing Maeda will be Vince Velasquez. This is the second straight start these two will be facing off. Last Tuesday did not go well for Velsquez, who allowed all nine runs (in just 4 2/3 IP) in a 9-3 loss. There is a good chance he could be left "hung out to dry" in this one as the Phillies' bullpen has been incredibly taxed of late, with a usage rate of 4.76 innings per game the L14 games. That workload ranks second highest in the NL this month and they're employing an average of 3.6 relievers per game. Velasquez's loss to the Dodgers last week dropped his TSR to 0-5 his L5 starts while Maeda now has a 4-0 TSR his L4. The Dodgers are just a much better team than the Phillies. 8* LA Dodgers

9* Under Pirates/Giants (10:15 ET): What has simply been a dreadful second half for San Francisco (now 9-18 overall) may have hit its official nadir Sunday afternoon as the team blew a six-run lead at home vs. Baltimore and lost 8-7. The final three runs that they allowed came in the top of the ninth, so it was indeed a brutal setback. But seeing this bullpen implode like that is highly irregular. Thus, I anticipate better in the run suppression department Monday, even as they prepare to face a Pirates team that just scored 11 runs in a win Sunday. Consider that the Bucs had scored just 13 runs in their previous four games - combined. On paper, the pitching matchup looks outstanding for the opener of this three-game set. Take the Under.

Going for Pittsburgh will be Ryan Vogelsong. He should be quite familiar with pitching at AT&T Park as he called San Francisco home for seven seasons. That includes the Giants' World Series runs in 2010 and 2012. So I anticipate him pitching well in this spot. Due to being hit in the face by a pitch, Vogelsong has been limited to only four starts in 2016. But all of them have been good; in fact, he's allowed only 2 ER and 12 hits in 19 IP this year as a starter. He rejoined the rotation when Francisco Liriano was dealt to the Blue Jays and so far is 2 for 2 w/ quality outings. Last time out, he allowed only two runs (both unearned) and three hits across six innings in San Diego. Really, the only "complaint" Vogelsong may have right now is that he's getting no run support. But for our cause here, that's a benefit. In that last start, the Pirates were shutout. 

Also getting little in the way of run support has been Giants' starter Matt Moore. While he's been "as good as advertised" since coming over from Tampa Bay, his offense also failed to score for him his last time out. That counteracted the fact that for a second straight start Moore went six innings and allowed just two runs on three hits. The Under has gone 8-1 in Moore's last nine starts overall w/ him allowing 3 ER or less seven times. Before yday, the Giants previous seven games had averaged just 6.0 rpg total w/ them hitting .234 and their opponents at just .203. The Under is also still 6-2 their L8 home games. 9* Under Pirates/Giants

8* Washington (7:10 ET): The Nationals took two of three from the Braves over the weekend, punctuating the series w/ a 9-1 win on Sunday. Bryce Harper returned to the lineup and paid immediate dividends with an RBI double. To me, the Nats have clearly emerged as the second best team in baseball, behind only the Cubs. They have a +142 run differential, which is indicative of a 75-win team. Thus, even at 69-47 for the year, you could make a case the NL East leaders are underachieving. Their next opponent, Colorado, is another underachiever. But not to the same degree as their own YTD run differential of +13 only says they should be closer to .500. Getting swept in Philadelphia was not a "good look" and I think the Rockies will  "rue the opportunities lost" there as they now must step up in class.

When heading into the thin air of Denver, pitching can always be a big question mark. But despite his pedestrian 14-10 team start record, I still have plenty of faith in Nats' starter Max Scherzer. He has a 2.80 ERA and 0.910 WHIP in his 24 starts this year. Those numbers rank 8th and 2nd respectively among all qualified starters. If that's not impressive enough, Scherzer's WHIP has dipped down to 0.727 his L3 starts. Last time out, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, but still ended up losing his first decision since July 4th. That was against a far stronger opponent, however (Cleveland). Scherzer also now leads all of baseball w/ 208 K's (5th straight season w/ 200+) and has struck out at least 10 batters in 7 of his past 11 outings. Even here at Coors Field, I believe Scherzer can be dominant. The last time he started here, he allowed only 3 ER in 6 IP. 

Scherzer also figures to get plenty of run support. Colorado gives up an average of 6.3 rpg here at home and will be sending Jorge De La Rosa to the bump Monday. De La Rosa has a 5.97 ERA and 1.759 WHIP here at home. He's been a bit better of late, but still posted a negative KW rate over his L2 starts. His team has dropped seven of eight overall, so they're hardly in fine form. Washington has actually won six of its last eight games here in Colorado, thus the price range is justified. They are 15-5 as a road favorite of -150 or higher on the money line this year and 38-13 in that range the L3 seasons. 8* Washington

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Sunday, the Rays were fortunate enough to face the horrible Luis Severino. It turns out that facing a pitcher w/ an 0-8 TSR, 7.78 ERA and 1.678 WHIP was just what "the doctor ordered." The Rays knocked Severino around for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings and rolled to a 12-3 victory, just their second in the last seven games. I see more improved fortune coming their way here as the Padres pay a visit. It bears repeating just how dominant the AL has been in Interleague Play through the years, winning every season series since 2003. This year, the record is 131-113 in favor of the Junior Circuit. The Padres' five wins in IL play are tied for the fewest in all of MLB. Clearly, I like this matchup for Tampa Bay.

Over the L2 days, San Diego didn't do a whole lot of scoring ... or hitting for that matter. They were held to just three runs total in B2B losses to the Mets and yday saw them no-hit for seven-plus innings by Steven Matz. That was the first time in more than a month that the Mets won B2B games. That's certainly not a good sign moving forward for the Padres, who are 27th in team batting average and 29th in OBP. Even the addition of the designated hitter to their lineup figures to be a "non-factor" here due to going up against the resurgent Drew Smyly. Smyly is coming off four consecutive quality starts, allowing 2 ER every time out. His last start at home saw him finish w/ a 10-1 KW rate as he held the Royals to only five hits in 7 IP.

Smyly's very respectable 1.049 WHIP at home tells me that he is deserving of far better than a 1-6 record here at Tropicana Field. Note the team has now won his L3 starts overall. He also does a reasonably good job at limiting the home run ball, which is key when facing the Padres, a team that is 5-21 in IL play when facing a left-handed starter. San Diego counters w/ Luis Perdomo, who has not fared well of late (6.23 ERA, 1.961 WHIP L3 starts). Last time out, he allowed six runs in just five innings. Including his time spent as a reliever this season, Perdomo has a 6.80 ERA. While the Padres are playing their second straight series out East, the Rays return home after a week out on the road. They are 5-1 this season in their first home game back following a road trip of at least seven days. 8* Tampa Bay

9* Run Line St. Louis (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a play on the run line where I am taking the Cardinals +1.5. Had the Cubs not lost yday, there's no way that I'd be getting in front of this runaway train. They came into Saturday riding an 11-game win streak and had outscored their opponents by a shocking 200 runs over the course of the season. But lose they did Saturday, 8-4 to the rival Cardinals, and I believe that sets up a situation where there's some real value in backing the Redbirds on the RL tonight. They (St. Louis) have drastically under-performed their own run differential (+62) as they're just five games above .500. But they have moved ahead of Miami for the second Wild Card in the NL and that's a position I assume they'll be desperate to maintain.

Though the overall record is disappointing, St. Louis has rather quietly put together the best road record in all of baseball. They're 33-23 outside of Busch Stadium this year, giving bettors a net return of +12.3 units (also #1). They've also gone a solid 6-6 overall against the Cubs, netting themselves another small profit. Remember that they swept their last visit to Wrigley Field, back in June. Hoping to continue some personal success in the rivalry will be tonight's starter Mike Leake, who has a 9-3 all-time mark against the Cubs in 20 starts (13-7 TSR) thanks to a 3.18 ERA and 1.128 WHIP. He's 0-1 against them in 2016, but you have to figure he'll get more run support here than he did the first time when the Cards were shutout 5-0.

The Cubs pitcher who shut the Cards out that day (April 16th) will oppose Leake again tonight. That would be John Lackey, who has since lost to St. Louis twice. Both times he allowed 3 ER. Lackey is deserving of far better than a 9-7 record, but you'll note that nine of his past 19 starts have seen the game decided by one run. Either way, that would be a win for us tonight. Leake has a 1-5 TSR in one-run games this season, but as it stands here, the RL would obviously turn all of those into wins. As a team, the Cardinals have played their fair share of one-run games this season (35). The Cubs have been involved in 32. The road team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 9* St. Louis (+1.5)

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Following yday's easy 6-2 win over the Orioles, I'm coming right back with the Giants on Sunday. I thought it was downright shocking that San Fran had lost five straight times w/ Madison Bumgarner on the hill going into Saturday. That streak ended as the big lefty delivered seven scoreless innings for us. Now, there's a similar situation to rectify w/ Johnny Cueto, the other key cog in the front end of the rotation. Though still sporting an outstanding 18-5 TSR this year, Cueto has not won a decision since the All-Star Break. Like Bumgarner yday, this has created a situation where he and the team are being undervalued. The Giants are a league-best 27-13 in day games this season.

Baltimore, despite its current standing, is a team that I just don't believe is as good as it's record. You can talk about the Giants being only 8-17 since the Break, but they've still outscored opponents by 51 runs this season. Baltimore is "only" at +37 and now a game below SF in the standings. Last night's result also dropped the O's out of first place in the competive AL East, one-half game back of Toronto. I will continue to point to the team's lousy record outside of Camden Yards (now 26-34) as a cause for concern. That includes a 2-11 mark when priced between +125 and +150 on the money line.  Both Toronto and Boston have far better YTD run differentials than Baltimore right now as well, making a case they might only be the third best team in the division.

Though recent returns might be less than desirable, Cueto is still having himself an outstanding 2016. Like I said earlier, the team has gone 18-5 in his 23 starts and he currently ranks just outside the Top 5 (7th) in terms of units earned among all starting pitchers. A big key here is that he'll be working on five days rest. He has a 6-1 TSR with that much time off between starts. His L2 starts were both on the road, but at home he has a 2.63 ERA and 1.009 WHIP. Cueto also comes in w/ the best ERA (2.59) in Interleague Play among all active pitchers w/ 27+ IL starts.  Baltimore counters w/ mid-season pickup Wade Miley and might there be a little "buyer's remorse" going on here? He's 0-2 (4.91 ERA) since coming over in the trade w/ Seattle. This would appear to be a bad matchup for Miley considering SF is 35-17 its L52 home games when facing a southpaw starter, including 7-1 against American League opponents. 8* San Francisco

10* Colorado (1:35 ET): I'm quite disappointed w/ how the Rockies have performed this weekend. I say this not as someone who's "salty" over losing w/ them on Friday, but rather, backed by the fact that came into this three-game set in Philadelphia as the far better team. Despite being three games below .500 (entering Friday), Colorado had actually outscored their opponents by 20 runs over the course of the season. Sure, that number has taken a bit of a hit over the L2 days, but still having a positive run differential should mean "something."  Conversely, you have the Phillies, who are now eight games within .500 despite actually being outscored by 99 runs this season (4th worst run differential in MLB). I see Colorado rectifying these curious cases w/ a big win Sunday as they avoid the sweep.

In my analysis for the series opener on Friday, I made mention of the Rockies' surprisingly good team ERA on the road. Even w/ the disappointing returns of the last two days, the staff still remains a solid seventh in road ERA (3.82) and there's a big gap between them and eighth place. A big contributor to this unlikely success has been today's starter, Tyler Chatwood. For much of his career, Chatwood was a pitcher you'd look to fade. But his numbers this year show that when you take him out of Coors Field, he can be quite good. He has yet to lose a single road start (6-0!) in 2016 in nine tries (8-1 TSR) and has a 1.30 ERA and 1.012 WHIP. Five of his last seven starts have come at home, but the two that didn't saw him allow only 2 ER in 12 IP. Chatwood has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any road start and eight times he has given up one or less! Here, he'll be facing an offense which ranks 27th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging.

On the other side of the ledger, you have Phillies starter Adam Morgan, who will be making his first start since the All-Star Break. He has not won at home all year and the team is 0-9 in his last nine starts overall! There's no "hard luck" here either as over his last seven outings he has a 7.78 ERA and 1.757 WHIP. It was him allowing six runs to these Rockies on 7.7 that took him out of the starting rotation. I'll look for more of the same in his return Sunday. While the Rockies are 8-2 off a loss w/ Chatwood starting, the Phillies are just 3-12 in their L15 games following a win, period. 10* Colorado

    

8* San Francisco (9:05 ET): Would you believe that the Giants have lost each of Madison Bumgarner's last five starts? I wouldn't either, but I've got the information right in front of me to prove it. Now that being said, the majority of the blame should NOT fall at the feet of the big lefty. In three of his last four outings, he's gone at least seven innings while allowing 2 ER or less. Last time out was the ultimate "hard luck" loss. He went eight innings and gave up only one run on two hits, but the Giants lost 1-0 to Washington. I realize that it's been some "tough sledding" for Bumgarner and the team ever since the All-Star Break, but I'm betting on them turning things around Saturday night vs. Baltimore.

It's no secret that I'm not a big fan of Baltimore. Yes, they won last night (5-2) and now lead the American League East by one-half game over Toronto (2.5 games up on Boston). But their run differential is drastically inferior to their two main rivals in the division (+41 vs. +79 and +86). They also are not nearly as strong on the road (26-33) as they are at Camden Yards (39-17). That's especially the case when tonight's starter Kevin Gausman toes the rubber. Gausman has yet to win a single road start (he's 0-8) in 12 tries (team start record is 3-9) and both his ERA (5.37) and WHIP (1.523) are quite subpar in those efforts. Going back further, the team is just 7-19 in Gausman's past 26 road starts and that includes a 1-5 record the last six times they've faced an opponent w/ a winning record. As a "reminder," San Francisco still leads the NL West at 65-50 for the year.

Bumgarner has clearly pitched better than his record (13-11 TSR), particularly at home where his ERA (1.70) and WHIP (0.827) are both outstanding. Remember that he'll be facing a Baltimore lineup minus its designated hitter (NL Park). The O's are also just 2-6 their last eight road games vs. a left-handed starter. Bumgarner's TSR in his last five Interleague starts is 4-1 and he's allowed more than 2 ER just once. Meanwhile, Gausman is just 1-4 w/ a 5.22 ERA his L5 IL starts. Bumgarner will be working here on a full five days' rest, which is huge. The team is 5-2 his L7 starts on five days' rest. 8* San Francisco

8* Texas (8:05 ET):  There was a 2 hour, 42 minute rain delay last night in Arlington, but for both the Rangers and myself, it was worth waiting out. I had Texas and they came through for me w/ an 8-5 win in the opener of this three-game series vs. Detroit. For many of the same reasons, I'll come right back with the AL West leaders again on Saturday. Detroit, after winning 10 of 11 games, has begun to regress. They've now lost five in a row, all on the road, and have generally been noncompetitive in doing so. Three times they've been held to one run or less and last night saw them fall behind 8-1 after just five innings. Tonight's pitching matchup most certainly appears to favor the home team w/ Cole Hamels facing Matt Boyd.

Hamels was the Rangers' big mid-season acquisition last year. Generally speaking, he's been everything that they'd hoped for. The team has won 28 of his last 35 starts overall, including a 14-2 mark here at home. This year, he's gone 12-3 in 23 total starts (17-6 TSR) w/ a 2.89 ERA. In his five starts since the All-Star Break, he's 3-1 w/ a 1.83 ERA. He's also 3-1 lifetime vs. Detroit w/ a 3.46 ERA and 1.192 WHIP. When he faced them back in May, he tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball. Texas is now 4-0 this season vs. Detroit, having outscored them 31-14. They've won every game by at least three runs. I can't see Boyd reversing the trend for the Tigers, especially considering he's 0-3 lifetime vs. Texas w/ a 7.63 ERA and 1.565 WHIP. All three starts came last season. This season, on the road, his numbers are equally as bad (7.25 ERA, 1.523 WHIP). Boyd will be facing a Rangers lineup that leads all of MLB w/ 89 HR's since June 9th.

Leading the offensive flurry for the Rangers has been 2016's big mid-season pickup, Jonathan Lucroy. He homered twice last night and now has 6 HR's and 11 RBI's in 11 games here. But Lucroy is contributing not just at the plate, but behind it as well. As the team's new catcher, he's earned high marks for the way he's handled the pitching staff. The Rangers aren't just good at home when Hamels pitches; this is a great home team overall w/ a 36-18 (.667) record in Arlington. That's the third best home win percentage in all of baseball. 8* Texas

    

8* Miami (7:10 ET):  Having to go w/out a designated hitter in the lineup, one would have thought the White Sox would be the ones struggling at the plate in this interleague series. But instead it was the Marlins' offense that again forgot to show up in last night's opener. The 4-2 loss for the home team marked the third consecutive game that they were held to two runs or fewer. But despite winning just three of their last 10 games, Miami still finds itself in position to earn the NL's second Wild Card, which should be ample motivation for a strong performance this weekend. I'll call on the Fish to bounce back Saturday night against a White Sox club that at this point is basically left to play out the string.

The White Sox are no road warriors. They came into this three-game set having dropped 13 of their last 17 outside of U.S. Cellular Field. In the previous series, they lost two of three in Kansas City. Sharing in his team's struggles away from home is starter James Shields, who has just one road win all season and it came back on May 12th as a member of the San Diego Padres. He'll toe the rubber today coming off B2B ugly outings where he allowed a total of 14 runs in just 6 1/3 innings. Last time out, and this was at home, he allowed eight runs in only 1 1/3 inning of work. Since coming over, the team is 0-4 w/ him starting on the road and in three of those starts he's failed to make it past the fifth inning. So Miami's offense certainly looks to have a good shot at bouncing back tonight. The White Sox are also 0-5 off their previous five victories.

Chicago outhit Miami yday, 12 to 4. But tonight, they'll have to deal with Adam Conley, who is 3-0 w/ a 1.37 ERA over his L4 starts at home. He comes off a rough outing, but that was at Coors Field where it's tough to discern much from one result. What we do know is that in his previous six starts to that one, Conley had allowed 2 ER or fewer every time out. Though he hasn't always gone deep into games, I consider him a more viable option that Shields, who is allowing 2.2 HR's per start w/ Chicago and 4.2 walks per nine innings. Both are career-worsts. Miami is 9-2 as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range on the ML while the White Sox are 2-10 as a road underdog of +125 to +150. 8* Miami

8* Washington (7:05 ET): Be aware that there was an overnight pitching change for the Nationals, who will now go w/ rookie Reynaldo Lopez. He certainly can't perform any worse than ace Stephen Strasburg did last night as Strasburg gave up six runs in just 5 1/3 IP. The Braves won, 8-5, which was not just their first win over the Nats this year (0-6 previous), but it was their first win in D.C. since the 2014 season! A bounce back from the home side thus sounds logical and suffice to say Washington seems a tad bit undervalued by the oddsmakers in this one. There has been only 17 times all year that the Braves have won consecutive games and let us not forget that they sport the worst record (44-72) and run differential (-127) in the game today.

Washington, meanwhile, has clearly emerged as the second best team in baseball behind the Cubs. Their already excellent 67-47 WL record somewhat undersells just how well they've performed as they have the run differential (+133) of what you would expect from a 73-win team. Only the Cubs (381) have given up fewer runs than the Nats' 402 and that's not only owed to starting pitching, but a bullpen which boasts a MLB-best 3.01 ERA. Thus, don't expect Lopez to be asked to do much this evening. Granted, he didn't do much in either of his first two big-league starts, which took place last month against the Giants and Dodgers. But those were also two formidable opponents he was facing there. Here, he will be going up against the lowest-scoring offense in all of baseball.

Atlanta also turns to a rookie making his third career start here as Rob Whalen will get the starting nod. He somehow has a 2-0 team start record despite a 5.73 ERA. He's also given up one home run in both outings. While the Braves have actually played .500 ball (26-26) over their L52 games, I don't think for a second they will be able to keep that pace up.  Washington remains 17-5 their L22 division games and should go back to dominating a foe whose number they'd had all year. The first six head to head battles saw Atlanta get held to four runs or fewer every time, so they should clearly regress offensively tonight. 8* Washington

6* Texas (8:05 ET): The good fortune that the Rangers have typically enjoyed took a turn yday afternoon as they lost 12-9 to Colorado after giving up five runs in the top of the eighth after they had just taken the lead w/ a four-run inning of their own. That result came on the heels of three consecutive wins over the Rockies where the Rangers didn't take the lead for good until the eighth inning or later. Quite frankly, while this team finds itself in a "good situation" right now (20 games above .500, best record in the American League), they should feel fortunate to be there as their YTD run differential is only +5 (8th best in AL). That all being said, I'm going with them tonight as they host a Detroit team that's clearly regressing following its own surprising surge.

The Tigers closed July w/ six straight wins and at one point had won 10 of 11 games. They were closing in on Cleveland in the AL Central, but then they got swept up in Seattle. This long trip back to the Central Time Zone probably does them no favors here and while they did have Thursday off, note that the team has a losing record when playing w/ an off-day anyway. Also, and this is quite incredible, but going back to the start of the 2014 season we've seen the Tigers lose 14 consecutive road games when priced in the +175 to +200 range! Simply put, when the oddsmakers don't like their chances, they don't win. Another reason not to like the Tigers' chances here is the fact they'll be sending Anibal Sanchez to the bump. His nine starts away from home have resulted in a 1-8 record for the team as he's produced a woeful 7.77 ERA and 1.727 WHIP. His last two starts, while both good, came in the Motor City.

Texas counters w/ Yu Darvish, who has been in fine form ever since returning from the disabled list. He's allowed 3 ER or less in all five starts and the last one was the best yet as he blanked Houston for seven innings and limited them to just five hits. His KW rate over the L4 starts is 34-2!  Darvish has won all five career starts against the Rangers (3.60 ERA, 1.143 WHIP) while Sanchez is 2-3 in his five career starts vs. Texas (6.93 ERA, 1.743 WHIP). Something to keep in mind is that the Rangers already swept the Tigers in Detroit earlier this year (back in May) and are a much better team at home where their record is 35-18. 6* Texas

8* Colorado (7:05 ET): Throughout the season, my stance on the Phillies has remained pretty consistent. This is a bad team that is even worse than their record indicates. Being 10 games below .500 is nothing to "write home about," but my point is that the Phils should feel quite fortunate to have that record considering they've been outscored by 106 runs over the course of the season (3rd worst run differential in all of MLB). The "luck" has come in the form of a 23-15 record in one-run games, which includes 6-3 in extra innings. In terms of actual vs. expected wins, there's been no bigger overachiever in the National League than this one (+8). Meanwhile, poor Colorado sits three games below .500 despite the fact they've actually outscored opponents this year (+20 run differential!). They are 8-15 in one-run games and 0-3 in extra innings. The Rockies are the better team here and I'll call for a reversal of fortunes. 

This series will be a steep drop in class for the Rockies after just concluding a four-game set w/ Texas. After losing the first three games to the Rangers, two at home and one in Arlington, they won on the road yday by a score of 12-9. This franchise has always been built around a strong offense, but did you know that in 2016 their staff sports the SIXTH lowest ERA (3.71) on the road in all of baseball? That's really surprising. Tonight it will be Jon Gray on the mound. While he's off a dismal showing vs. Miami (at home) on 8.7, note that previous to that Gray had allowed just 2 ER across four starts, giving up only 18 hits in 26 IP. He'll benefit here from facing a Phillies offense that has scored the third fewest runs in all of baseball. Furthermore, the Phils rank 29th in team batting average (only .220 at home!), 29th in slugging and last in OBP.

Starting here for the home team will be Jake Thompson. This marks his second career start at the big league level and the first didn't go well as he surrendered six runs in only 4 1/3 innings against a light-hitting San Diego team. This Rockies lineup has three of the top 10 hitters in the league, in terms of batting average! Yes, the Phillies won yday (6-2 over the Dodgers), but they are just 7-22 off their previous 29 victories. Colorado rarely finds itself in this price range on the road, but consider that the last time they faced a team w/ a losing record (Atlanta in the first series post-Break), they swept the series. 8* Colorado

10* Under D'backs/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Boston is off B2B crushing losses here as they gave away late leads to the rival Yankees each of the L2 days. Those games were 4-1 (heading into the 7th) and 2-1 (heading into the eighth) respectively before the bullpen blew up in spectacular fashion. Being letdown by the bullpen is a sound all too familiar to tonight's starter David Price, who actually has pitched quite well each of his L4 starts (despite what the numbers may say), yet has nothing to show for it. But lowly Arizona paying a visit to Fenway might be just "what the doctor ordered" from the Red Sox perspective and as you can tell from the ML for this game, the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty easy win for the home team. There's no value in betting on that, however, I feel there is value here on the Under.

Of course, considering what the team is paying him, Price was expected to pitch well for Boston. But that hasn't necessarily always been the case. That being said, he has a pretty low WHIP when pitching at home (1.173). His L3 starts have all come on the road and while the last one wasn't very good, the two before that saw him turn in 15 straight scoreless innings at one point. He also threw eight shutout innings here at Fenway against Tampa Bay (10-1 KW rate) back on July 10th. He'll be facing an Arizona lineup that fanned a total of 37 times in their last series (three games), so I anticipate a good strikeout number tonight for Price. It would be nice if Boston could enter the ninth w/ a lead as that way we could avoid playing the bottom half of the inning, always a boon for Under bettors.

The Red Sox offense has scored the most runs in all of baseball, but lately they've been scuffling a bit at the plate. They scored only 11 times in the three games vs. New York and are averaging only 3.5 rpg their L11 games. Now tonight they will be facing a pitcher that has been struggling in Pat Corbin. Not only is it bad news for Arizona that they have lost the last six times Corbin has started, but it's bad news for us that each of his L7 starts have gone Over the total. The D'backs did win in shutout fashion yday, however, and I don't see them scoring nine runs again tonight. The Under is 8-2-1 the L11 matchups between these two. 10* Under D'backs/Red Sox

10* Under Angels/Indians (7:10 ET): I would not be surprised if this turned into a very nice weekend for Cleveland as they host an Angels club that comes in reeling. The Halos have lost six straight and have scored a total of just three runs the last three games. The last two came in Chicago, against the Cubs, but they were also swept in Seattle last weekend. Cleveland, while only 3-6 their last nine games, continues to lead the AL Central and sports the third best run differential in the entire American League. Tonight, they'll send Corey Kluber to the hill and he's been dominant of late, including his last time out (where I took him) and he delivered eight strong innings, giving up only two runs and five hits. The money line is too high here, but where we can take advantage of Kluber is by playing the Under, which is a better value.

Kluber has now made five consecutive quality starts. He's gone at least seven innings all five times and never given up more than 3 ER. Twice he hasn't allowed a single run. I've made this point before, but it bears repeating: Kluber's WHIP this year (1.013) is actually lower than what it was in his Cy Young campaign of 2014 (1.095). In fact, he's on pace to finish w/ a WHIP below 1.10 for a third consecutive season. That number is just 0.909 his L3 starts and w/ a sub-3.00 ERA here at home, I would expect Kluber to be his usual dominant self tonight. The Indians are among the top teams in the league in run suppression and have an excellent defense as well. The hope here is that the Indians go into the ninth w/ a lead and thus we can avoid playing the final half inning. That's always nice when playing an Under.

Tonight, Kluber will be facing a team that has finished w/ six or fewer hits in four of its last five games. The team batting average over the last seven games is just .226. Opponents are batting just .202 off Kluber in those L5 starts. Remember that this Angels lineup features Mike Trout, so that should give you some sort of idea on just how bad every other hitter has generally been this season. Note that LA has scored three runs or less in six of the last eight head to head matchups vs. Cleveland. We do have to rely a little bit on Jhoulys Chacin, but I'm not putting much stock into the Angels' starter's numbers as this will be his first start since July 1. Cleveland has scored only nine runs in its last three games. 10* Under Angels/Indians

8* Boston (7:10 ET): Well, the Red Sox let me down last night, losing 9-4 to the Yankees. It was a game they led 4-1 heading into the seventh inning, but then the wheels came off in the seventh and eighth where New York scored a total of eight times off the Boston bullpen. The fact that the Yankees lost their starter (Nathan Eovaldi) after just one inning reemphasizes what a crushing loss that was for the home team. But they get a chance to bounce back and take the series on Thursday. There has been a pitching change as Eduardo Rodriguez goes in place of the still-injured Steven Wright. That has no bearing whatsoever on this play as I'm banking on the fact that Boston is still the much better ballclub here.

This whole A-Rod saga is a big mess for Yankees manager Joe Girardi. Rodriguez's career will mercifully come to an end this weekend and for Yankees' brass, that time cannot come soon enough. A-Rod is a shell of the player he once was, which is evident by the fact he has only four hits in his L37 plate appearances (.108). He flied out in a pinch-hitting role last night. Now word comes down that he will be in the starting lineup tonight. There's no two ways about it; Rodriguez has been one of the worst hitters in the game this season and him being in the lineup absolutely makes the Yankees a worse team. By the way, having Eduardo Rodriguez going for Boston may work to our advantage as he's 4-1 all-time vs. the team in pinstripes w/ a 2.01 ERA. 

The Red Sox are dealing with some injuries here, as Mookie Betts and David Ortiz both left the game Wednesday. That doesn't sound good, but I'll take my chances with the top offense in the game facing Michael Pineda, who has never really performed well against Boston in the past. In 10 starts against them, his ERA is 4.92.  On the road this year, Pineda is just 2-6 w/ a 5.34 ERA and 1.437 WHIP.  Note that the Yankees are 0-5 off their previous five victories. This is not a good team and once A-Rod is out of the equation, they will fully be invested in the future instead of the present. The Red Sox are in a pennant chase and have the best run differential in the American League. 8* Boston

6* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): In a game and series they desperately need to have, the Pirates are off a shutout loss (4-0) last night to the Padres. To call that result disappointing (from the Bucs perspective) would be quite the understatement. Not only did I have them personally, but the loss leaves them 2.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot in the National League. Now only one game over .500 for the season, the Bucs had as many errors (2) as hits last night and as I said, desperately need to bounce back this afternoon. I think the quick turnaround usually works to the home team's advantage in these situations and such is the case here as San Diego "got their win" and the players are probably looking forward to "getting out of town."

Believe it or not, but last night was just the fourth time all season that Pittsburgh was shut out. Offensively, this has generally been a fairly strong club for much of the year. They scored six runs in Tuesday's series opener and average 4.8 rpg here at PNC Park. Thus, getting blanked by Edwin Jackson last night came as a major surprise to me. Today, they'll face Christian Friedrich, who has had a pretty subpar year. Friedrich's ERA in his L3 starts is 5.62 as he allowed 4 ER his last time out and took the loss (at home) against the Phillies. Overall, the team has dropped five of Friedrich's past seven starts. This will be just the second time in his career that he's faced Pittsburgh. The first, which came all the way back in 2012, did not go well as Friedrich allowed five runs in 4 2/3 IP. Pittsburgh has won five straight games when facing a southpaw starter.

A number of key factors work against the Padres today. A big one is the fact they are 0-8 off their previous eight victories. This is also not a good road team at all. They've lost 11 of 15 away from Petco Park and are just 19-39 their L58 road games vs. a right-handed starter. They face a strong righty today in Jameson Taillon, who has gone exactly six innings in each of his L5 starts and allowed 2 ER or less four times. On Friday, he held the Reds to just one run here at home. That marked the fourth straight time the team won w/ him starting here at PNC Park. Another important part of handicapping this game is noting San Diego's dreadful daytime record as they are a MLB-worst 10-26 in afternoon games this year. 6* Pittsburgh

6* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox picked up a big win at their rival's expense last night and in the process closed the gap on both the Orioles and Blue Jays (both lost) in the division. They now face just a 1.5 game deficit and I think it's certainly worth mentioning that it is Boston who has the best overall run differential in the American League currently at +88. Suffice to say, though tempers flared and words were exchanged in last night's 5-3 win by the Red Sox, this rivalry has lost a bit of its luster w/ the Yankees simply not being very good this season. Though a .500 team in the standings, they've been outscored by 36 runs and were major sellers at the trade deadline. I'm sure Boston fans will still be fired up though w/ this game being on ESPN.

The Yankees are 4-0 off their last four losses, but they are also 0-5 in Nathan Eovaldi's last five road starts. So, something will have to give here. My inclination is the former as the team is just 1-6 its last seven road games overall. Eovaldi, who has a 5.12 ERA and 1.336 WHIP to begin with, now must contend with what is the highest scoring offense in baseball - by a wide margin. Last night saw Boston become the first team to reach 600 runs scored this year and they average at least a half run per game more than all but four other teams. Eovaldi has allowed a total of four home runs in his last two starts. I put little stock in the fact he leads the teams in wins or that he's 3-0 lifetime vs. the Red Sox. In two career starts here at Fenway, his ERA is 5.94.

Drew Pomeranz most certainly is finding life in the American League far more difficult than it was in the Senior Circuit. He's yet to win for Boston since coming over in a trade from San Diego that took place during the All-Star Break. But the team has won two of the four starts he's made and Pomeranz did look better his last time out, holding Seattle to just two runs in six innings of work. The Yankees just don't have a strong lineup as they've been held to three runs or fewer in seven of the last 10 games. Behind Pomeranz, the Red Sox bullpen is now more solified w/ the return of Craig Kimbrel. Boston is now 7-3 vs. the Yankees in 2016, including 4-0 at home. 6* Boston

6* Toronto (7:07 ET): The Blue Jays missed out on a golden opportunity last night, instead losing to the Rays 9-2 here at Rogers Centre. Baltimore lost later in the evening, thus a win would have elevated Toronto into first place in the American League by its lonesome. Alas, they'll have another opportunity to do so tonight and I like their chances of bouncing back and gaining revenge against the last place team in the division, Tampa Bay. The main reason I think that is J.A. Happ will be on the mound for the home team. The last time Happ suffered a loss was June 6th! Since then, the Jays are a perfect 10-0 w/ him on the mound. Happ has posted a 2.49 ERA during the win streak, which has seen the team outscore its opponents by a stunning 86-25 margin. 

Having already set a personal best for most wins in a season (15), Happ seems to only be getting stronger. He's allowed 1 or 0 ER in five of his last six starts and over the last three he's been absolutely dominant. He's posted a 0.95 ERA and 0.842 WHIP, allowing just two runs and eight hits in 19 IP. Curiously, he has an 0-3 TSR vs. Tampa Bay in 2016, but two of the starts were quality, even though the last one was most certainly not. I find it odd that Happ and Toronto for that matter haven't found success at the Rays' expense this season (Jays are 5-7 vs. Rays overall) as there's no denying who the better team has been this year (Toronto +74 run diff, TB -37). The Rays are third from the bottom in the AL in runs scored and don't hit lefties particularly well. The last time Happ faced them was May, so a lot's changed since then.

Last night's 9-2 victory by the Rays definitely caught me by surprise. Nevertheless, the team remains just 5-16 its L21 road games and has lost 34 of 49 overall. They are up against a pitcher w/ a 17-5 TSR for the year. They'll counter Happ w/ Blake Snell, who has also pitched well of late, but he tends to not pitch very deep into games and has benefited from facing a slew of bad teams lately. Curiously, TB is 1-12 this season in games where the total is 9 or 9.5 (indicative of them not being able to win games the oddsmakers think could be slugfests). Toronto is 7-3 this year as a home favorite in the -175 to -200 range on the ML.  6* Toronto

6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): This is one of those series where you'd expect the home team to "clean up" and that concept held "true to form" last night w/ the Bucs coming out on top in the opener of a three-game set, 6-4. San Diego actually struck first, taking a 2-0 lead in the top of the first, but wouldn't score again until late when they tacked on runs in both the eighth and ninth innings. Pittsburgh's big breakthrough came in the fifth where three of their four runs scored came via one swing of the bat, a Gregory Polcano home run. Still three games back of the second Wild Card in the NL, it is imperative that the Pirates take care of business in the remainder of this series as they're just 4-6 their L10 games despite only having faced teams that are all at least 10 games below .500. I think they'll get the job done tonight.

We have a matchup of two pitchers w/ rather limited workloads thus far in '16. But judging from the early returns, there's no denying that Ryan Vogelsong has been more effective for the Bucs than Edwin Jackson has been for the Padres. In three starts, Vogelsong has a 1.38 ERA and 0.769 WHIP. Even though the team has lost twice w/ him on the mound, I like his chances here. A former member of the San Francisco Giants, Vogelsong should be quite familiar with the Padres. In fact, the last two times he's faced them, he's shut them out across a total of 13 IP! Vogelsong seems to be fully recovered from the facial fracture (hit by pitch) that kept him out from May 24-Aug 3. Theoretically, he should do well against a Padres lineup which never hits all that well and yday started six rookies.

Edwin Jackson goes here for San Diego and he probably qualifies as a "band-aid over a bullet hole" situation. His four starts have seen him produce a 4.62 ERA and 1.382 WHIP and he remains in the rotation only out of necessity. This will be just the second time he's started on the road. The Padres have lost 14 of their last 17 road games overall, so that's certainly not a good omen. They've also lost their last four games here at PNC Park. Pittsburgh is fighting to stay alive in a playoff chase while San Diego is largely w/o motivation here. Edge: home team. 6* Pittsburgh

8* Baltimore (10:05 ET): I had the Under in last night's series opener and that was yet another easy O/U winner for me as the teams combined for just five runs and 12 hits in a game that was tied 1-1 going into the bottom of the sixth. For the Orioles, the result was not a pleasant one as they came out on the losing end (3-2) and thus dropped back into a first place tie w/ Toronto (who I also won w/ yday!). Here, however, I'll offer my endorsement of the O's as they should absolutely bounce back against an inferior opponent. I've got my doubts about Baltimore being able to hold on to its division lead, but what is not up for debate is the fact Oakland is not a good team. They enter Tuesday w/ the worst run differential in the American League at -93.

The A's will be starting a pitcher in Zach Neal that has just one big league start under his belt. It came back in May and he allowed seven runs, on eight hits, in just four innings. The team lost 13-3 at Seattle. He has also made 10 relief appearances over the course of the season. The bottom line is that his ERA is 5.05.  Yesterday's win was only the second in 10 games for Oakland. Offensively, they have produced just six runs in the last four games. That run differential I mentioned earlier is easily the worst in the American League. The next worse team is Minnesota at -62.

Yes, I've previously discussed how Baltimore isn't even close to as effective on the road as they are at Camden Yards. But Oakland has been a losing proposition in its own park this season (-9.5 units, 25-32). I went against Wade Miley in his Orioles debut last Thursday and that move paid off as the team lost 5-3 and failed to sweep Texas at home. But Miley didn't pitch as poorly as I'd anticipated in that spot and still sports a 0.889 WHIP over his L3 starts. Catcher Matt Wieters cited unusually poor play in the field from the typically sound O's defense as a reason two of the four runs Miley allowed, scored. This will be the first time Miley has faced Oakland this year, but he was 2-0 w/a  1.29 ERA against them in 2015. Miley had allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last eight starts before coming over from Seattle. 8* Baltimore

10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): This is a pretty cheap price on Chris Sale, no? Granted, the White Sox have lost each of his last four starts, but that's what's served to drive the price down. Save for a disastrous effort before the Break against Atlanta, it's not as if Sale has pitched poorly of late. Of course, there was the suspension and trade rumors, but the bottom line is that in three starts since the Break, all on the road, he has a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP and nothing to show for it. During that stretch, he's had to face Seattle (underrated offensive team that he held to one hit across eight innings), the Cubs (best team in baseball) and Tigers (hottest team in baseball at the time). Now, he gets to face the lowest scoring team in the American League, an opponent he's quite familiar with. I look for Sale to break through tonight in Kansas City.

Sale has faced the Royals many times before (17 to be exact) and has a 3.04 career ERA against them. He's made two starts against them this season, one good and one bad, and ironically Chicago won the latter and lost the former. Overall, the White Sox are just 2-7 head to head w/ the Royals in '16, including 0-3 here in Kansas City. But, while they're struggling right now, so too are the reigning World Series Champs who have just five wins in their last 27 games not started by Danny Duffy! As mentioned above, KC is the lowest scoring offense in the entire American League right now (3.8 rpg). They have lost their last eight games when facing a southpaw starter.

Pitching tonight for the Royals will be Edinson Volquez. He, like Sale, is winless over his L3 starts. Unlike Sale, he's probably deserving of that. Last time out, Volquez got hammered by Tampa Bay, giving up eight runs and 11 hits in just five innings in what ended up being a 12-0 loss for the team. It's not as if his season numbers are very good either, in fact, they're pretty bad as in 23 starts he has a 5.05 ERA and 1.470 WHIP. The Royals have definitely had the White Sox number since their franchise resurgence, but not tonight as the pitching matchup is too heavily slanted in Chicago's favor. 10* Chi White Sox

    

6* Washington (7:05 ET): This may seem like a pretty steep price to go against the Indians, who I still consider to be one of the favorites to come out of the American League this Fall. But consider that we're getting Max Scherzer in this spot and he has been especially filthy of late. Plus, Cleveland has been struggling w/ losses in five of their last seven games. That stretch came against the Twins and Yankees, two of the worst teams in the AL. The typically strong starting pitching we've seen from the Tribe all year is all of a sudden getting hit hard as Tribe opponents have scored an average of nearly 8.0 rpg over the past week. Emblematic of the trend is tonight's starter Trevor Bauer, who has an ugly 10.50 ERA and 2.417 WHIP his L3 starts. Washington is one of the few NL teams that has accounted well for itself in Interleague Play, going 10-4.

While Bauer might be struggling for Cleveland right now, Scherzer has been dominant for Washington. He comes in w/ a sub-1.00 WHIP (0.926) for the year and seems to be getting stronger as the season wears on. He did allow three runs over eight innings last Wednesday in Arizona. While that still qualifies as a quality start (he also finished w/ an 11-1 KW rate), note it was just the second time since the start of June that Scherzer had given up more than 2 ER! That's 10 of 12 times he's allowed 2 ER or less then and during that time he has a sick 108-15 KW rate! Over his L7 starts, he has 1.46 ERA and 0.770 WHIP! The team has won the last three times he's taken the mound. Simply put, this is not a pitcher any team wants to be facing right now.

Headed in the other direction is Bauer, who has posted those unsightly number his last three times out. Minnesota scored eight times against him in just 2 1/3 innings on Wednesday and to make matters worse, Bauer had no control, walking five batters as well. He's now gone five starts w/o a win. The Achilles' heel of Cleveland is that they are actually just 27th in team batting average (.240) and OBP (.300) on the road. These teams split a pair of games in Cleveland two weeks ago, but it should be noted that the Nats held a 6-4 lead going into the bottom of the ninth in the game that they lost. Over the course of the year, their bullpen has generally been the best in all of baseball (2.43 ERA, 1.00 WHIP at home). 6* Washington

10* Under Orioles/A's (10:05 ET): Two teams at opposite ends of the American League spectrum meet here in Oakland as Baltimore comes calling. The A's find themselves in last place in the AL West and a -94 run differential is not only indicative of them being well out of contention, but they're also probably the worst team in the entire league. The Orioles on the other hand lead the AL East. But they've definitely overachieved in getting there, so I won't be backing them on the money line tonight. Instead, I'll be on the Under. The A's managed just three runs total in their last series while the O's are due to "cool off" after yday's 10-run outpouring.

Giving Oakland a fighting chance here will be Kendall Graveman, the team's only starting pitcher not to have spent any time on the disabled list in 2016. Though he's coming off B2B disappointing showings, both on the road, before that Graveman had gone 6-0 over a 10-start stretch that saw him produce a 3.25 ERA and 34-14 KW rate. Here at home, he has a 2.92 ERA and for our purposes, what's most important is that the Under has gone 6-2 in eight tries. Graveman has not fared well against Baltimore in the past, but overall the Orioles offensive numbers have been down since the Break. They did hit five home runs yday, but that's a number certainly unlikely to be repeated. 

As referenced earlier, Oakland isn't scoring much though as they were completely shut down over the weekend by the vastly superior Cubs. In getting swept, they scored just three runs total and had only 14 hits in the series. The Under has now cashed in five of the A's last six home games. Thus, another starter w/ the initials K.G., that being Baltimore's Kevin Gausman, has to be smiling here. The Under is already 13-6 in his 19 starts this year and he's given up 2 ER or less in three of his last four starts. Overall, the Under is 21-5 in Baltimore's last 26 games, something that is not being talked about at all. They've gone Under 11 straight times after giving up two runs or less in the previous game. Recall that they won 10-2 Sunday over the White Sox. Over the L7 games, Baltimore opponents are batting just .219. Manager Buck Showalter always does an outstanding job w/ his bullpen. 10* Under Orioles/A's.

    

6* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Right in the midst of a playoff race, the Cardinals ought to be absolutely ashamed of themselves for dropping B2B games to the lowly Braves over the weekend. Though they are third in the National League in run differential (+71) and sixth overall, this traditional power has largely underachieved in 2016 as 58-53 record has them one game back of Miami for the second Wild Card in the N.L. One thing that I have zero answers for is the team's 26-32 record here at Busch Stadium. While they couldn't take advantage of a series against Atlanta, a fortuitous scheduling stretch continues this week w/ a visit from Cincinnati, whom the Cards also shockingly dropped two of three to (on the road) last week. Tonight is a must win for the home favorite and I believe they'll deliver.

If St. Louis could draw up a perfect situation to win a game, it might look a lot like tonight's matchup. The Reds have been outscored by a MLB-worst 128 runs this season and figure to "challenge" for 100 losses by season's end. They send Cody Reed to the hill tonight and that means trouble. Reed is 0-6 in eight starts w/ a 7.30 ERA and 1.795 WHIP. The team has lost all eight of his starts, including one to St. Louis last week as he gave up all five runs (in just five innings of work) in a 5-4 loss. There has been only one start all season where Reed didn't allow at least four runs and that was at home against Atlanta. Only twice has he made it a full six innings. St. Louis has one of the top offenses in all of baseball (4th in runs scored), so if they can't take advantage of the worst starting pitcher on the worst staff in all of baseball, then I don't know what to say. The Reds bullpen has also generally been awful all season (29th in ERA).

The Cards counter w/ Michael Wacha, who beat Reed last Wednesday. Wacha allowed just two runs over his 5 IP and has generally been pretty solid of late. The team has won his last three starts, all one-run games. Going back much further, they are 25-11 in Wacha's last 36 home starts. Wacha has historically dominated the Reds, going 6-1 against them in 11 starts (8-3 TSR) w/ a 2.09 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He's 2-0 here in 2016. 6* St. Louis

8* Milwaukee (7:20 ET): Normally, neither of these two ballclubs elicit a play from me, but in this instance the Brewers look like a good value. It's pretty rare that you can get to go against the awful Braves at this cheap of price. Plus, the Brew Crew have a very good starter going in Zach Davies.  Though the Braves are off B2B wins here and have actually won four of five, let's face it, they still have the worst record in baseball and have been outscored by 123 runs over the course of the season. After a win, they're just 15-25 and one would have to go all the way back to the middle of June to find the last time they produced a win streak of at least three games (won five straight). The team's only other win streak of 3+ games came back in April.

Davies has emerged as Milwaukee's second best pitcher behind Junior Guerra. In 19 starts, Davies has gone 9-4 (11-8 TSR) and has a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The team has won each of the last three times he's started and ironically four starts ago he didn't even give up a single run in seven innings of work! He's allowed 2 ER or less in five straight starts, posting a 1.97 ERA during that time w/ a 21-6 KW rate in 32 IP. In 11 of his previous 12 starts, Davies has held the opponent to 3 ER or less. Tonight's start, on paper, should be as easy as it gets considering Atlanta is the lowest scoring team in all of baseball (3.6 rpg). These teams have played only one prior series this year and Milwaukee swept at Turner Field, holding the Braves to just five runs total.

Normally, I might be inclined to play the revenge angle in this situation, but not w/ Atlanta, who didn't even face Davies in the prior series. They'll send a rookie, Rob Whalen, to the mound tonight. This will be Whalen's second big league start and the first did not go particularly well as he allowed four runs in five innings against Pittsburgh. He also walked four batters. The Braves actually wound up winning the game, 8-4, but I do not expect that kind of offensive display to take place here tonight. Atlanta has dropped six of its last seven series openers. The Brewers, meanwhile, have won their last four games here at Miller Park.  8* Milwaukee

8* Toronto (7:07 ET): Though personally the Blue Jays were a success for me this weekend (they were Friday's 10* Game of the Week), the team has to be quite disappointed w/ their overall weekend result as they dropped two of three to the previously ice cold Kansas City Royals. Losing to Danny Duffy on Saturday was acceptable, but yday's 7-1 setback really caught me by surprise. This leaves the Jays one game back of Baltimore in the AL East. They now start a key six-game homestand against the last place team in the division, Tampa Bay, who also lost two of three over the weekend (at home to Minnesota). The Rays should be no match here and I think this is a pretty good price to be getting on Toronto at home against a clearly inferior foe.

Part of the reason this line is so low is that the Rays are sending Jake Odorizzi out to the mound. Odorizzi hasn't given up a single run in his L3 starts (20 2/3 IP) and has a WHIP of 0.726 during that time. Impressive as that may be, those numbers are far better than what we've seen from him for much of the season, thus regression is likely to occur sooner rather than later. Tampa Bay has lost 9 of the last 11 times Odorizzi has started a series opener and they've won just one of his last nine road starts against teams w/ winning records. Though this matchup appears favorable against a Toronto offense that has been struggling over the L7 games (.193 team batting average), note the Blue Jays do average 5.2 runs in games vs. RH starters and they figure to bounce back here at home.

A big key here is that Toronto has revenge for a three-game sweep that took place here at Rogers Centre all the way back in May. The Rays dominated that series, outscoring the Jays 31-7. But that was a long time ago and it's odd that two division rivals would go so long w/o playing. I'm not overly concerned w/ the fact that R.A. Dickey is starting here because defensively the Blue Jays are so good (defense is so underrated in MLB handicapping), ranking near the top of the league in both fielding percentage and defensive runs saved (which go hand in hand). Dickey did allow just one run in seven innings at Houston his last time out. TB is second to last in the AL in runs scored. 8* Toronto

9* Boston (7:10 ET): A few notes here. This isn't a typical Sunday Night Game as the start time is 7:10 ET. The game won't be on ESPN either (MLB Network) as they have the H.O.F. Game instead. The Dodgers have made a pitching change as the recently acquired Rich Hill is still dealing w/ a blister on his throwing hand, thus Brandon McCarthy is thrust into action here on four days' rest. The Dodgers and Red Sox have exchanged shutout victories so far in this series w/ the former coming out on top yday, 3-0. That was the first time all year that Boston dropped a game in which it was coming off a shutout win (won 9-0 Friday). It was also just their fourth time being shutout in 2016. I have them bouncing back tonight and taking the series.

In yesterday's analysis of Mets-Tigers (I had Detroit and won), I made mention of the AL's annual dominance of the NL in Interleague Play. Boston has certainly done its part to keep the trend alive this season by going 9-4 against the Senior Circuit. It is rare to see the Dodgers be an underdog on the money line at home, but it can be justified here in that the Red Sox are #1 in the AL in run differential (+89) while the Dodgers are just fourth in the NL (+56). David Price goes for the Red Sox tonight and that would usually mean they'd be a big favorite in this spot. But because of his inconsistencies this season, that's not really the case here. But I'm still willing to bank on Price, who had been dominant for six innings in his last start (at Seattle) before breaking down. He had allowed just three hits in six scoreless innings against the Mariners. Before that, he'd thrown eight scoreless innings against the Angels. So, we're talking 15 scoreless IP before one bad inning coming into tonight.

So it won't be Hill, but rather McCarthy going for the home team here. Of course, because this is a NL park, there will be no David Ortiz (DH) in the lineup for the Sox. But even still, Boston has the offensive advantage in this one as they come in ranked #1 in runs scored in all of MLB while LA is batting just .239 in its home games this year. McCarthy has only lasted a combined seven innings his last two starts and allowed 7 ER w/ seven walks. 9* Boston

    

10* Seattle (4:05 ET): While it appeared as if the Mariners were conceding the season at the trade deadline, their prospects of sweeping the Angels this weekend are good. Meanwhile, losses of 6-4 and 8-6 the L2 days leave the Halos a horrible 18-41 their L59 road games against teams w/ a winning home record. That includes 0-7 their last seven. For the record, Seattle is 29-25 at Safeco Field this season. The Angels are just 23-32 overall on the road to begin with and struggles there are what have prevented them from making any substantial gains in the standings since the All-Star Break. Starting Matt Shoemaker, who has a 1-6 TSR his L7 road starts, should do nothing in the way of stopping a trend which has seen Angels pitching allow at least six runs each of the last four games.

Seattle has now won four of five, all here at home. They send a lefty, James Paxton, to the bump Sunday. He was excellent his last time out as he held Boston to just one run over eight innings and gave up only four hits (6-0 KW rate). Unfortunately, the team still lost, 2-1. But having just faced three of the best offenses in the game (Boston, Pittsburgh, Toronto) over his L3 starts, this will be a drop in class for Paxton that should yield a positive result. It's not like he's pitched poorly of late anyway; he's allowed just 5 ER and 13 hits in his L20 IP w/ a 21-2 KW rate. The Angels come in averaging just 3.8 runs in games vs. left-handed starters. Behind Paxton is a much improved Mariners' pen, whose WHIP is down to 1.193 in home games this year.

Meanwhile, the Angels' starting rotation has basically been in shambles this entire season thanks to injuries. The Tim Lincecum experiment has been an unmitigated disaster. Shoemaker has actually been one of the better options, but his ERA is still north of 4.00 and the team has dropped 14 of his 21 starts overall, including seven of nine when priced as an underdog. He's basically lost money in all situations for 2016 and in his one previous start vs. Seattle this year, he gave up six runs in only three innings. Paxton, I should have mentioned, has a 0.857 WHIP in six career starts vs. the Angels. M's finish off the sweep here. 10* Seattle

6* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): The Bucs are going for a three-game sweep of the Reds Sunday and I think they'll get it behind Gerrit Cole. Granted, Cincy counters w/ one of their two good starters, that being Dan Strailey, but overall this is a very bad ballclub that's been outscored by 132 runs over the course of the season. They'd been flashing some promise heading into the series, but have been held to just five runs and 13 hits here at PNC Park. The Pirates still have Wild Card aspirations remember and depending on how St. Louis and Miami fare Saturday night, they could be facing just a 1.5 game deficit entering the day. The Reds are only 18-36 on the road this year while the Bucs are 17-5 L3 seasons at home in the -175 to -200 price range on the ML.

Cole has missed some time due to injury this season and thus has been limited to only 16 starts. Pittsburgh really could have used him during the month he missed as that was the time they really hit the skids, going just 14-19 overall. The team lost his first start back, 6-0 at Washington (w/ Cole giving up five of those runs), but since then he's been lights out. Cole has posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his three starts since, allowing only 1 ER each time out. That includes a complete game, three-hitter his last time starting here at home. There he finished w/ a 6-0 KW rate against a good Seattle lineup. For some odd reason, Cole has always struggled against the Reds (never beaten them), but there's a first time for everything and for the Bucs' ace Sunday should be that first time beating this particular divison rival.

Cincinnati's Straily has been very good ever since July 1st (six straight quality starts). He and Anthony DeSclafani have really emerged as the anchors of this very young Reds staff. But the Pirates beat the previously unbeaten DeSclafani on Friday, though it was actually a walk-off HR that won it for them. Despite all of Straily's exploits, it should be mentioned that he still sports a poor 4.42 ERA on the road. The team has won his L4 outings overall, including B2B as underdogs (once at +215 at San Francisco), but this has all the makings of a sweep Sunday. 6* Pittsburgh

8* Houston (7:10 ET): I had the Astros last night and, as expected, they rolled to a 5-0 victory over Texas. I'll come right back w/ them again tonight for many of the same reasons. Yes, I may be just two days removed from taking the Rangers and them coming through at a nice +116 return on the money line in Baltimore. But this remains a flawed ballclub. What I mean by that is that in terms of wins and losses, they've clearly overachieved in 2016. Look no further than their run differential, now just +1 on the season, which is eighth best in the American League. So the fact they entered last night w/ the best record in the AL should be considered very fortunate. Houston had been only 1-9 vs. Texas this year, but as I said yday, this is going to be their series for the taking. I would not be shocked if they passed the Rangers in the AL West by season's end.

Maybe shutting out the Rangers surprised some, but not I as I'm fully aware that the Astros have given up the fewest runs in the entire American League (440). Last night saw Dallas Keuchel flash "2015 form" by limiting Texas to three hits in a CG shutout. It marked the third time in the last four games that the Rangers were held to two runs or fewer. Tonight, it's Doug Fister's turn. He is coming off a shutout performance of his own, albeit over only six innings, but what makes that impressive is that it came against a strong offensive team (Toronto). It was also the second time in three starts that Fister did not allow any runs as he held Oakland scoreless and to only four hits in 7 IP on 7.20. Before last night, Fister was the only Astros pitcher to have beaten Texas this year as he held them to just one run on seven hits in 6 IP back on June 8th. That was on the road as a +150 ML dog.

While Texas is very good at home (34-17), they're now a game below .500 on the road (28-29). Houston, meanwhile, is now 34-24 this season at Minute Maid Park. I spoke of the Rangers' run differential earlier (just +1), well, the Astros are at +38 and that's best in the division (4th best in entire A.L.). Something else I pointed out yday is Texas is third from the BOTTOM in the AL in runs allowed (now 512). Only last place teams Oakland and Minnesota are worse. I don't like Lucas Harrell going here for the Rangers, not with them just 5-13 their L18 out on the road and 3-14 after allowing 5+ runs the previous game. 8* Houston

8* Detroit (7:10 ET): Turns out that Thursday afternoon (lost 6-3 to the White Sox) was just a "brief hiccup" for the Tigers, who improved to 9-1 their L10 games w/ a 4-3 win over Noah Syndergaard and the Mets last night. That result, coupled w/ Cleveland's loss in New York, has Detroit now just two games back in American League Central. Meanwhile, the Mets (last year's Senior Circuit champs) seem to be fading in the National League Wildcard picture even though they face the same two-game deficit (behind Marlins & Cardinals) that the Tigers do. But New York certainly seems to be trending in the wrong direction of late w/ losses in 7 of their past 10 games. Detroit is a team that probably should not be faded right now.

It's well-known that the National League has struggled big-time in Interleague Play. The last time they won the season series from the A.L. was 2003! It appears as if they are headed for another losing mark this year w/ a 102-119 mark. The Mets have traditionally been an exception to that rule w/ the best all-time win % (.518) among NL teams in IL play. At 8-7 this year, they are one of just four NL teams w/ winning IL records, joining the Cubs, Nats and surprisingly Brewers. But the problem is Detroit has the best IL record in baseball (11-4) this year and since '06, they are 124-76 vs. the NL, the second best win % (.620) overall. Theoretically, you'd think the Mets would benefit here from the addition of the DH to their lineup, but the player they wanted to use in that spot (Yoenis Cespedes) now finds himself on the disabled list and the fact remains this team just can't score runs w/ any regularity. Their 3.7 rpg average ranks 28th overall and they are dead last in team batting average (.237).

Detroit has been a dominant home team in tonight's price range (-125 to -150), going 18-4 this year. Benefiting from the Mets' weak lineup tonight will be starter Mike Boyd, who comes in w/ a 2.35 ERA and 0.913 WHIP his L3 starts, so it's not like he even needs the help. Boyd has allowed 3 ER or less in four straight starts and has a 23-4 KW rate during that time. For the Mets, Logan Verrett is not someone they had envisioned getting many starts this time of year and his poor marks on the road (5.59 ERA, 1.724 WHIP) should be cause for concern. Over their last seven games, the Tigers are outscoring opponents by 3.6 rpg (6.9 to 3.3).  8* Detroit

    

8* Cleveland (1:05 ET):  Indians' aces past and present will face off early Saturday with former teammate CC Sabathia going against Corey Kluber. It's not only been awhile since Sabathia called Cleveland home, but save for a brief "renaissance" earlier this year, it's been a while since he was any good. The hefty lefty has seen a stark rise in his numbers going back to late June w/ a 6.49 ERA and 1.511 WHIP his L7 starts overall. In all but one of his last eight, he's given up at least four runs. That includes one against these Indians where the Yankees were fortunate to still come away with a 7-6 win in spite of Sabathia allowing five runs in just 5 2/3 IP. I look for the Tribe to get to him yet again Saturday, only this time they'll come way w/ the win.

Kluber, just two years removed from a Cy Young campaign, has pitched much better than his record indicates. He ranks third in the American League in both complete games (3) and WHIP (1.02). That WHIP is actually better than what he had in '14 when he won the Cy Young! Furthermore, he ranks in the top eight in the A.L. in innings pitched, strikeouts and ERA. He comes off an outstanding July (2.51 ERA, 35-10 KW rate in five starts) and has been especially filthy of late w/ a 1.29 ERA and 1.048 WHIP his L3 turns. Last time out, he shut Oakland out for seven innings, allowing just five hits, and the closest the A's got to scoring was the seventh when they had two runners in scoring position w/ one out. Yesterday aside, the Yankees are a weak offensive team (12th in AL in runs scored) and I'm banking on Kluber shutting them down just like he did right before the Break where he held them to only one run in 8 IP. That's the lone time Cleveland has beaten the Yankees this season.

Despite a 1-4 head to head record vs. NY, the Indians are clearly the better team here. They're in first place of the AL Central and despite a surprisingly rough week so far, I anticipate them turning things around this weekend. The Tribe is 19-7 its L26 games vs. LH starters and for the Yankees, the emotion surrounding Mark Teixeira's impending retirement should wear off. Remember Teixeira is retiring for a reason (hint: he's not very good anymore); he's hitting just .202 this season. Big bounce back for the Indians today after yday's debacle where they fell into an early hole thanks to a Yankees' grand slam. 8* Cleveland

    

10* Over Phillies/Padres (10:40 ET): I'm not sure how Philadelphia has done it (well, they're 21-15 in one-run games and 6-3 in extra innings), but they are a respectable 10 games within .500. That may not sound impressive to you, but consider their YTD run differential is -99 (4th worst in baseball) and their opponent here (San Diego) is 14 games under the Mendoza line. Realistically, nothing is on the line this weekend at Petco Park, but for tonight's series opener, I believe there to be substantial value on the Over. There's been only one previous series between these two in 2016 and that came all the way back in April at Philadelphia w/ all four games staying Under the total. Different story this time around. Take the Over.

In that series that took place almost four months ago, the Phils took three of four and shut the Padres out twice. No one will ever confuse this San Diego lineup w/ the '27 Yankees, but note they did score 12 runs in their last game, a win Wednesday afternoon over Milwaukee. That performance came at the expense of a very good pitcher as well, Junior Guerra, who had won four of his previous five starts and had not allowed more than 3 ER in any of his previous seven. The Padres scored four times off him in only four innings and wound up hitting two home runs in the game. In case you haven't been paying attention to this team (can't blame you if you haven't!), they've homered in all but four games since July 1st! Tonight, they face a pitcher (Jeremy Hellickson) that's been performing "above his head" recently. In his L3 starts, Hellickson has a 1.83 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. After the Under had cashed in his previous seven starts, the last one went Over though and this will be the first time since July 1 that he's not facing a division (i.e. familiar) opponent.

A potential problem for the Padres here though is that they are starting Christian Friedrich, who has not been good all year. He has, however, been kind to Over bettors w/ a 10-4 mark in that department. His L3 starts have seen him post a 5.65 ERA and 1.675 WHIP and those numbers are right in line w/ his season-long marks at home. Petco is no longer the haven for Unders it once was (Over is 30-23 here this year) and the Phillies come in averaging 5.4 rpg their last seven contests overall. These are two bad teams and a low total, a combo which should result in a relatively high-scoring affair. 10* Over Phillies/Padres

10* Under Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): Seattle has revenge in this series as they were swept by the Angels, here at home, all the way back in May. But tonight's series opener seems to set up well for them on paper as they have Felix Hernandez going at home. Still, I'm a little leery of a Mariners offense which has simply failed to produce consistently in recent days. In six of the last ten games, they've been held to three runs or fewer and the just completed series w/ the Red Sox was quite low-scoring all around. Yes, they're facing Tim Lincecum here, but even he should be able to find some success against a lineup which is hitting a collective .193 its last seven games. I'm on the Under in this one.

King Felix has not been particularly effective since returning from a two-month stint on the DL, but he did hold the Cubs to just two runs in five innings his last time out. Both times he's faced the Angels this year he's gone at least seven innings and allowed just three earned runs. Going back to the final time he faced them in 2015, Hernandez's last three starts vs. the Halos have all stayed Under the total. He literally got no run support back in May as his offense was shutout in a 3-0 loss. All three times, Seattle has scored two runs or less and lost. Despite some decreased velocity, I still think Hernandez will do his job, which would be made even easier if the Angels top hitter - Mike Trout - sits out. Trout did not start yday vs. Oakland, but pinch hit. The Under is 23-8-4 in Hernandez's L35 starts vs. the Angels with or without Trout. It would also be nice here if Seattle didn't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (always a big assist when playing the Under).

I was 2 for 2 in hitting the Under in Seattle's just completed series vs. Boston. Overall, there just wasn't much scoring done - on either side - in that four game set. The opener took only 2 hrs, 42 minutes to complete as the teams combined to go three up, three down a total of TEN times in a scoreless first 6.5 innings (game finished 2-1 in favor of Red Sox). Tuesday saw Seattle shutout for the first six innings yet again. Wednesday brought a 3-1 win (I had the Under) and the M's had just four hits for the game there. Last night was a 3-2 loss in 11 innings. Look for another low scoring game at Safeco tonight. 10* Under Angels/Mariners

10* Toronto (8:15 ET): These teams met in last year's ALCS, but given recent form (on both sides), only one side stands a chance of getting back there this year. That would be the Blue Jays as this series most certainly represents two teams trending in very different directions. Toronto just took three in a row in Houston, allowing just three runs in the process, and has won 19 of 28. Kansas City, who seems unable to win when Danny Duffy isn't pitching, has just six victories since the All-Star Break. Four of those have come w/ Duffy on the bump, which leaves them at a pitiful 3-21 the L24 games that Duffy did NOT start. No offense Royals fans, but you owe Fangraphs a big apology as all the signs that your team would regress in 2016 have come to fruition. Look for Toronto to come in and roll here.

  The Blue Jays are one of just three teams in the American League to have a winning road record. Theirs (30-23) is actually the best and only the Cardinals and Nats in the NL are better overall. As mentioned above, they come off three straight wins in Houston (a good home team) and allowed just one run in every game. Last year, the offense carried this club, but in 2016 the pitching has improved despite the loss of David Price. A new acquisition gets the starting nod tonight. That would be Francisco Liriano. While his numbers w/ Pittsburgh may not look very impressive to you, I've got my eyes on one key statistic. Liriano will be reunited w/ another former Pirate here, that being catcher Russell Martin, and when those two have worked together in the past, Liriano sports an ERA of 2.92. P.S. The Royals have lost the last seven times they've faced a left-handed starter!

Dillon Gee will be the starter for Kansas City and because he's not Duffy, it's really difficult to like the team's chances here, even at home. One month ago, in Toronto, the Blue Jays swept the Royals and held them to just seven runs in the three games. Gee joined the starting rotation right after that and has not been successful w/ a 6.75 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in three starts, all losses. Again, he figures to get little help from an offense that has now scored three runs or fewer in ELEVEN of its last 12 games. A crushing 3-2 loss yday in Tampa Bay (allowed 3-run HR in bottom of eighth after one-hitting the Rays through seven) does the Royals no favors here either. 10* Toronto

8* Houston (8:10 ET): Texas was quite kind to me yday, cashing as a +116 underdog on the money line in Baltimore, which is not an easy place to win (Orioles have best home record in baseball). But, if you go back and look at my analysis for that game (which I implore you to do!), you'll note I made mention of some "reservations" I have concerning the Rangers moving forward. Currently, there are nine teams in the American League w/ positive run differentials. Of those nine, the Rangers (who have the best record) place only eighth, having outscored opponents by only six runs over the course of the season. Houston, their main competition in the division and opponent this weekend, is +33. I still am of the belief that the Astros will possibly overtake the Rangers for the AL West crown. Take them in tonight's series opener.

There was a time (as in last season!) when Dallas Keuchel was an automatic take here at Minute Maid Park (provided the ML wasn't ridiculously high). He was 16-0 (17-2 TSR) in 19 home starts in 2015 w/ a 1.45 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He has certainly regressed here in 2016 w/ a 2-4 record (4-5 TSR), 3.66 ERA and 1.136 WHIP at home. The Astros certainly do not come into this series in "fine form" as they've lost six of seven and scored a total of seven runs the L6 games. Keuchel was shelled his last time out, on the road, giving up seven runs in an 11-0 loss to Detroit. But, I have reason to believe that he and Houston will turn it around here. For starters, Texas is just a .500 team on the road (had lost B2B games before yday's win) compared to 34-17 at home. The Astros share a similar dichotomy as they are 33-24 at Minute Maid compared to 23-28 on the road. They just got done playing two hot teams - Detroit & Toronto - and this will actually be a DROP in class.

In 10 tries this season, Houston has beaten Texas only one time. That's about to change this weekend. I simply do not believe the Rangers can continue overachieving. Their starter, Martin Perez, has horrendous marks on the road this year w/ a 5.95 ERA and 1.585 WHIP, going 1-6 in 11 starts. In his L3 road starts, Perez has allowed a total of 24 runs - in just 15 2/3 IP! Houston has actually allowed the fewest number of runs in the entire AL this season (440) while Texas (507) ranks third from the bottom (only Minnesota and Oakland worse!). This series is the Astros' chance to shine! 8* Houston

10* Texas (7:05 ET): This battle of unlikely division leaders has seen Baltimore come out on top both times so far in the series. But while Texas' lead in the West (5.5 games) remains safer than the Orioles in the East (1 gm), don't think for a second that the Rangers won't have a sense of desperation Thursday as they look to avoid being swept. Yesterday saw the O's score all three of their runs in the first inning and they were held to just one hit after that. There's been a real offensive decline with Buck Showalter's club since the Break and while they remain a lucrative 39-16 this year at Camden Yards, I think their opponents are a really solid value this afternoon despite any reservations I may have about their YTD run differential (only +4).

I do have to tip my cap to the Orioles for beating both Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels the L2 days. They've done so with only eight runs and 13 hits, so the pitching deserves more of the credit in this series. That's odd considering Baltimore's starting staff has ranked near the bottom of MLB in ERA basically all season (currently 25th at 4.91). For that reason, they went out and acquired Wade Miley from Seattle at the trade deadline. But could there wind up being a little "buyer's remorse" when all is said and done? Yes, Miley has pitched well recently, but over the course of the year his ERA/WHIP is 4.98/1.348. He did pitch very well in his lone start at Camden Yards earlier this year, but that was against the team he now plays for, not Texas, who has gotten to him three times in 2016. In those three starts vs. the Rangers, Miley has allowed a total of 14 runs and 21 hits in 17 IP. In starts outside of Safeco Field this year, Miley has a 5.01 ERA and 1.423 WHIP.

Since the start of last season, no team has been as profitable at the betting window than the Rangers and it's not even close. They led all of baseball last season at +30.7 units and once again find themselves a top the rankings at +21.7 here in '16.  They did outhit the Orioles last night (7-4) and I think that a real key for tonight is that they are 21-7 their L28 after scoring two runs or less the previous ballgame. They'll counter Miley w/ AJ Griffin, who has an 8-3 TSR L11 outings and has allowed just three runs total his L2 starts.  10* Texas

8* Cleveland (12:10 ET): Can you believe that the Indians are now just 4-8 head to head vs. the Twins in 2016 and facing the prospect of a four-game sweep, at home? More shocking than just that have been the individual results themselves in this series. Minnesota has won by scores of 12-5, 10-6 and 13-5, pummeling what had been the top pitching staff in the entire American League. To say the events of this week at Progressive Field have been shocking would be a mild understatement. I've unfortunately been on Cleveland each of the L2 games and just to reiterate the shocking nature of the results, I'll repost a snippet of my past analysis and point out that the Indians still rank near the top of the AL (3rd, were 1st going into yday) in run differential (+78) and have gone 26-8 vs. the other three teams in the Central Division. Minnesota is -60 in YTD run diff (2nd worst in AL) and is a combined 6-21 vs. KC, Detroit and Chicago.

Having beaten up on some of the top arms in the Indians' rotation, the Twins will now face Mike Clevinger, a spot starter. Clevinger's three starts in 2016 haven't gone all that well, but the last one came all the way back in May. So, he's basically starting with a "fresh slate" here. The reason for the start is Danny Salazar is now on the DL w/ right elbow inflammation. Note Clevinger accounted quite well for himself down at Triple-A Columbus, going 11-1 w/ a 3.00 ERA. I just think this is a wonderful opportunity to "buy low" on the Indians as it's pretty rare home teams end up on the wrong end of a four-game sweep. Look for Clevinger to surprisingly deliver.

Note that no one, oddsmakers included, were really giving the Twins a chance each of the L3 days. But here, I feel that they'll be a trendy choice. Part of that is the pitching matchup as they send the newly acquired Hector Santiago to the hill. But beware of Santiago's 10-4 record and 16-6 TSR w/ the Angels as it came w/ a 4.25 ERA and 1.334 WHIP, indicating that's he's been more lucky than good. Over his final three starts w/ the Halos, all wins, he got away w/ posting a 1.761 WHIP! He's walked an alarming number of batters during that time (13 in 15 1/3 IP!) plus allowed 14 hits. The Twins have not won five in a row at any point this season while the Indians are a perfect 4-0 this year on a three-game losing streak. 8* Cleveland

    

8* Tampa Bay (12:10 ET): The Rays FINALLY broke through against the Royals last night (and did so in a major way!), beating them 12-0. Previously, they had been 0-5 vs. the reigning World Series Champs in 2016, not to mention 3-15 against them since the start of the 2014 season. At this juncture, I think it's pretty safe to say we won't be seeing Kansas City back in the Fall Classic this year. Ned Yost's club is in the midst of a terrible tailspin that dates back to the start of July. Coming into this series, they'd lost 13 of the last 14 games that weren't started by Danny Duffy and w/ his turn in the rotation already passed, it will be Ian Kennedy this afternoon. Kennedy has been one of the biggest money losers (in terms of net units) the last two months, so I don't like his team's chances here on Getaway Day.

Since June 1, Kennedy is down 6.7 units, fourth worst in all of baseball. He certainly hasn't helped himself lately w/ a 6.61 ERA his L3 starts. The team has lost all three of those games, not to mention went 0-6 w/ him on the mound last month. Royals starting pitching has just been terrible in the first inning this year w/ a 6.48 ERA (highest in majors). Yesterday saw Edinson Volquez allow the Rays to hit for the cycle in their first seven at-bats! Let us not forget how woeful the Royals have been on the road all season as well. Wednesday's loss dropped them to 19-37 away from Kauffman Stadium, which is the worst road record in all of baseball. They are 2-14 as an underdog in the +125 to +150 range on the money line.

The Royals had more errors (3) than hits (2) yday as well. As you can tell from a .194 team batting average the L7 games, pitching is not the only concern for this team right now. Over the L11 games, KC has been held to three runs or fewer TEN times! Today, they probably won't even have Lorenzo Cain in the lineup as he continues to battle a left hamstring strain and Yost doesn't want him playing a fourth straight game on an artificial surface.  This is all very good news for Rays starter Drew Smyly, who like Jake Odorizzi last night, should be able to dominate this lineup. Smyly has a 1.074 WHIP here at home, which right away tells me he's deserving of a better TSR than 3-6. He's off B2B quality starts as well. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Under Red Sox/Mariners (10:10 ET): I had Under in the first game of this series, which was won by the Red Sox w/ a scant three runs scored (2-1) between the two teams. The game only took a 2 hrs and 42 minutes to play and was still scoreless heading into the home half of the seventh inning. Boston won it w/ solo home runs in the eighth and ninth innings (seems like a lot of their games have been decided in the late innings recently). Case in point, yesterday's game was a 5-4 final, this time in favor of the Mariners, a rare one-run decision to go their way after several such games recently went against them (Sunday's 7-6 loss to the Cubs being the most painful). Though Tuesday was higher scoring and finished Over the total, note that once again the M's were shutout for the first six innings w/ all of their scoring coming in the eighth. The result thus snapped a six-game Under run for Boston. But I'm calling for another Under tonight.

Through seven innings last night, Seattle had managed only three hits against David Price. That was a similar story to Monday where they had just one hit in seven inning against Eduardo Rodriguez. Incredibly, that game saw the two starters face only 42 hitters (minimum is 39!) in the first 6.5 innings! That included ten 1-2-3 innings out of a possible 13! Neither team even managed a hit until there were two outs in the bottom of the fourth. Yesterday saw a similar story unfold, at least from Seattle's perspective as they didn't send up more than four hitters to plate in any of the first seven innings. Neither team is drawing many walks in this series either as there's been just six total in the two games.

Tonight's pitching matchup, I believe, has us in line for a similar type game. For the Red Sox, Rick Porcello has been just outstanding his L3 starts w/ a 0.818 WHIP. He's now 14-2 in 21 starts (16-5 TSR) and the last time the team lost w/ him on the mound was June 12th! He has a 3.44 ERA his L13 starts overall and has a very strong WHIP on the road (1.108) for the season. Meanwhile, I expect the normally reliable Hisashi Iwakuma to bounce back here for the Mariners after his shortest stint of the season his last time out (vs. Cubs). Iwakuma had made three consecutive quality starts before that one and may not have to contend w/ Hanley Ramirez in the Boston lineup as he slipped in the dugout yday and hurt his wrist. Over the L7 games, Boston is scoring only 3.3 rpg and hitting a collective .213. Seattle hitters have actually been worse at the plate w/ a .208 average. 10* Under Red Sox/Mariners