8* Under Cardinals/Pirates (1:05 ET): It should be a chilly home opener at PNC Park today, which favors the pitchers. Gametime temps should be sub-40 degrees here. The Pirates are already used to dealing with the elements as one of their three scheduled games vs. Cincinnati got rained out over the weekend. St. Louis already has four games under its belt, but three of them didn't go their way in Milwaukee. So they'll definitely come in motivated against a team that I project to finish last in the NL West this year. But they'll also have to contend w/ Chris Archer, which means runs could be tough to come by. I feel the same about the Bucs offense as well. Take the Under today. 

This may very well be Adam Wainwright's final season in a Cardinals or any other uniform. Injuries really slowed him down in 2018, but he did make four starts in September and he didn't allow more than four runs in any of them. He's had success in the past against Pittsburgh and this particular Pirates lineup looks as weak as it's been in years. The Bucs lost on Opening Day by a score of 5-3 in Cincinnati, but after the rainout Saturday came back and shut the Reds out Sunday in a 5-0 win. They were helped by four Reds' errors though. Last year, the Under closed on a 7-1 run when the Pirates scored 5+ runs the previous game.

Archer should take care of the Cards lineup today. Though he had an "up and down" 2018 w/ both the Rays and Bucs, Archer closed pretty strong w/ his current team. In September, he posted a 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Pitching in the National League should yield him better results and this is a pitcher that has put up tremendous numbers in the past. The Under went 14-4-1 the final 19 games at PNC Park last season and is 5-2 the last seven meetings between these NL Central rivals. 8* Under Cardinals/Pirates 

8* Under Giants/Padres (4:10 ET): So far, it looks as if any time the Giants take the field, the Under is going to be a good option. They've scored a grand total of four runs in three games so far, though they did win last night, 3-2, thanks to one big inning. But take that one 3-run inning away and the Giants have been held to one run across 26 innings this season. They project to be a "bottom of the barrel" type offense anyway, so this really shouldn't be too surprising. All three games in this series have stayed Under the total and today's finale makes it 4 for 4.

San Diego comes into the season w/ far more optimism than usual, thanks to the Manny Machado signing plus several other moves. But their offense hasn't exactly been a "murderer's row" either w/ only eight total runs scored in three games. All their runs yday also came in the sixth as they answered the Giants' three runs in the top half w/ two of their own. But the Padres never could find the equalizer and lost for the 1st time in 2019. Lack of hitting aside, the starting pitching has been great so far for San Diego. Eric Lauer, Joey Lucchesi and Nick Margevicius (all 2nd year or younger) have held San Francisco to just one run and 10 hits in 16 1/3 combined innings. 

We're getting another highly touted prospect starting today for San Diego. That would be Chris Paddack, who is making his big league debut here. Paddack missed the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, but had an outstanding minor league career w/ 1.82 ERA and 230-20 KW ratio in 177 2/3 IP. After looking strong in both Single A and Double A last year, Paddack had an excellent Spring, going 3-1 w/ a 1.76 ERA and 24-3 KW ratio. Obviously, I'm expecting him to pitch well today. The Giants counter w/ Jeff Samardzija. The former Notre Dame wide receiver did not have a good 2018, but that was due to injuries. He's always pitched well in the past vs. San Diego, whom he's 8-3 against in 17 career starts (3.64 ERA).  8* Under Giants/Padres

10* Washington (1:35 ET): The Nationals have started 0-2 against the Mets, but I think they easily avoid the sweep Sunday. Washington was my pick for most improved team this year (for all of MLB!) as I think the loss of Bryce Harper is overstated (Juan Soto is better anyways). Granted, it doesn't look that way now, but so far they've also had to face Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Most teams would go 0-2 against that pairing. The pitching matchup is more in their favor today and I really like the Nats to get that 1st win of 2019. 

Despite poor pitching, fielding and baserunning yday, the Nats still had a chance to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth when Matt Adams stepped to the plate w/ the bases loaded. This came after a shaky start from Stephen Strasburg, who allowed 3 ER in the first inning. The bullpen was even shakier (allowed 7 runs in final two frames) and you can add a key mistakes in the field (error, balk, passed ball, runner picked off 1st) to the laundry list of things Washington did wrong Saturday. Yet, they were still in position to tie the game up late. I imagine most of those mistakes will disappate and with that being the case, the results will obviously improve. 

Patrick Corbin, signed in the offseason, will get the nod today for the Nats. He's coming off a 2018 where he posted career bests in both ERA (3.15) and WHIP (1.05) for Arizona. Considering those marks, you would have expected him to have a better won-loss record than 11-7 (17-16 TSR). Look for Corbin to a solid addition to what is already a strong starting rotation. The Mets will go w/ Zach Wheeler here and he's only 4-8 lifetime vs. Washington w/ a 4.37 ERA. I have respect for this Mets team, but I just can't see them sweeping the Nats here in the Nation's Capital. 10* Washington

8* Under Mets/Nationals (1:35 ET): You don't expect 19 runs to be scored in a game started by both Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Strasburg, but that's precisely what we had yday in the Nation's Capital as the Mets won 11-8. It was an extremely "sloppy" game by the Nats, who had a chance to overcome a somewhat shaky start by Strasburg, only to come undone w/ numerous errors in the field. The bullpen, Trevor Rosenthal specifically, didn't exactly hold their weight here as they allowed the Mets to score seven times over the course of the final two innings. 

I look for a different story today, something more in line w/ Opening Day when the Mets won 2-0. Washington was not expecting to start the season 0-2, but the Mets are improved as well. I do think the Nationals will be more improved than the Mets when all is said and done as they're surprisingly (to some!) projected to do better w/o Bryce Harper. It would be great if Pat Corbin, signed to a big money deal this past offseason, gave the Nats a strong outing today. Coming off a year where he posted career bests in ERA and WHIP (for Arizona), I'm banking on Corbin doing just that. 

The Mets turn to Zach Wheeler, who has not had much success against Washington in the past. But Wheeler did have a strong finish to 2018, going 5-1 his L7 starts w/ a 1.88 ERA and 0.854 WHIP. As long as he can mitigate the damage here, you can look for a low-scoring game. The Mets are very likely to see a downturn in offense here considering the Under is on a 6-1 run following a game where they score 5+ runs. The Under is also 10-3 going back to last year off the Mets' prior 13 victories. The Mets offense won't benefit from so many Nats miscues today. Go w/ the Under. 8* Under Mets/Nationals

8* Under Orioles/Yankees (1:05 ET): Hopefully, Mother Nature cooperates w/ us on this one. The Yankees are looking to bounce back from a shocking 5-3 defeat yday at the hands of the Orioles. I say "shocking" because they closed at -390 on the money line. If you think that's an absurdly high ML for this early in the season, you'd be right, but remember Baltimore won only 47 games last season. The Yankees remain the Yankees, so they're almost always going to be available at an inflated price. But they should win easily today and we can use that to our advantage by playing the total where we can win at a much cheaper price. 

With the thinking that the Yanks will bounce back Sunday comes the logical conclusion that we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth, which always helps when playing the Under. The Orioles have scored just seven runs in the two games so far and haven't done much against either Yankees starter. So it should be a strong showing here for J.A. Happ, who has not lost a decision since coming over from Toronto last July. He's 7-0 w/ a 2.69 ERA in 11 regular season outings since then and the Yankees were smart to acquire him due his track record of success here in the Bronx. Happ is 8-1 w/ a 3.39 ERA in 15 career starts @ Yankee Stadium including a perfect 7-0 (2.69 ERA) his L11.

Since donning the pinstripes, Happ has gone 4-0 in seven starts here. I expect him to pitch well today. In addition to all his success pitching here at Yankee Stadium, Happ has also had the Orioles number through the years. He's allowed three runs or less the L10 times he's faced them and in five starts LY, the O's hit just .196 off him. Baltimore's Dylan Bundy going against this Yankees lineup is a bit concerning when having the Under, but provided his own offense does little this one still finds a way to stay Under the total. 8* Under Orioles/Yankees

10* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): These teams have split the first two games of the season, each winning as a favorite. The Brew Crew won on Opening Day, 5-4, thanks to Lorenzo Cain robbing Jose Martinez of the potential game-tying home run for the final out. But give the Cards credit for bouncing back yday. They did so largely on the bat of Paul Goldschmidt, who hit three home runs. Milwaukee is the favorite for tonight's rubber match and I'll call for a continuation of the pattern we've seen thus far - that being the team favored to win, doing so. 

St. Louis will be going with a rookie starter here, that being Dakota Hudson, whose only previous big league experience has come as a reliever. In addition to making 26 relief appearances w/ the big league club last year, he was also their best pitcher in the minors. There's a lot of promise here, but this is a tough spot starting at Miller Park where the Brewers were very good last season. They ranked top 10 in both runs scored and allowed at home in 2018. Going from reliever to starter is quite the challenge, even if Hudson has done plenty of the latter in the minors and Spring Training. Milwaukee is 12-2 their last 14 during game 3 of a series. 

The Brew Crew counter Hudson w/ Brandon Woodruff, himself a former ace reliever now looking to find similar success as a starter. The difference is Woodruff has started previously at the big league level - 12 times. In the playoffs last year, as a reliever, Woodruff had 20 strikeouts in 12 1/3 IP while holding opponents to a .175 batting average. When priced between -125 and -175 on the ML at home, the Brewers are 41-14 the L3 seasons. 10* Milwaukee 

8* Under White Sox/Royals (2:15 ET): The AL Central features three teams that lost 98 or more games last year. These two both lost 100. Kansas City is in the middle of a rebuild while the White Sox are hoping to break out of one. KC drew "first blood," winning on Opening Day 5-3, after a two-hour rain delay. Conditions figure to be more favorable for the pitchers early on and it's not like either of these lineups strike fear into the opposition. They scored the third and fourth fewest runs in the American League last year and figure to be at or near the bottom again this season. Take the Under today.

Brad Keller did pitch well for Kansas City on Thursday. He allowed only two hits in seven innings and didn't allow a single run in a quality start. Today it will be Jake Junis getting the baseball and he's no stranger to the White Sox having faced them a total of four times last season. His fourth and final start, which took place in this ballpark, was the best one of the bunch. He went eight innings and allowed just three runs in a 4-3 win. Including that game, the Under is now 15-4-2 the last 21 meetings w/ the White Sox here at Kauffman Stadium. 

Chicago will turn to Reynaldo Lopez this afternoon. He had a strong finish to last season as in his final seven starts he never allowed more than 2 ER. Those seven starts saw him post a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, both outstanding numbers. This may sound obvious, but if you keep the Royals off the basepaths, they won't do much offensively. Stealing bases and manufacturing runs is how they score, not by hitting home runs. Lopez was a bit of a "stopper" last season as the Under was 4-0 when he started and the team had given up 5+ runs the previous game. 8* Under White Sox/Royals

8* Under Indians/Twins (2:10 ET): These teams combined for just two run ( both from the Twins) in the opener and I expect another low-scoring game today. Trevor Bauer toes the rubber for Cleveland and he's a Cy Young candidate who would have finished high in balloting last season were it not for an injury in August. He posted a 2.31 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in '18 and figures to be even more dominant this season. He'll be one of the top pitchers in the A.L. even if it ultimately ends up being his last season in Cleveland (most think it will be). Bottom line is Bauer helps this game stay Under. 

While the starting rotation remains strong, as we saw Opening Day, the Indians are going to struggle to score runs. Offense will be even harder to come by with both Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez out of the lineup. The Tribe managed only two hits Thursday as Jose Berrios overwhelmed them with 10 strikeouts in the best Opening Day start for the Twins since the days of Johan Santana. So there's hope here for Jake Odorizzi, who is coming off a career worst season. Odorizzi should bounce back at least a little bit in 2019. The Under was 9-2-1 in his afternoon starts last season.

Bauer posted the third best ERA in MLB last season. I have no doubts that he's going to pitch well here. Minnesota's offense was pretty non-existent Opening Day as well as they got both runs on one hit and had been held w/o a hit until the sixth. Miguel Sano is also still recovering from his ACL injury and will be out until at least May. Both of these teams figure to struggle to score runs in this series. The Under is an incredible 41-9-7 in Bauer's last 57 road starts. 8* Under Indians/Twins

8* Colorado (7:10 ET): A lot of smart baseball people that I know really like this Rockies team this year. Colorado has made B2B playoff appearances and has its sights set on capturing the NL West pennant this year, which would be a first in franchise history. Two things have drastically altered the Rockies trajectory, both for the better. One is they now have better than average pitching. This is true for both the starters and the bullpen. Two is they are now able to win on the road. The last two seasons have seen them deliver winning records away from Coors Field. Winning again tonight in Miami shouldn't be much trouble. The Rockies beat the Marlins yday 6-3 and that's just the first of what should be many losses for Miami this season.

Because of how strong the rest of the NL East is, the Marlins project to have one of the worst records in all of baseball this season, certainly in the National League. Even though they may never get over the tragic death of Jose Fernandez, it's not the pitching that's a problem on South Beach. Rather, it's a lack of offense. No team scored fewer runs last year and the projections for this year seem even worse. They managed just four hits yday. 

Kyle Freeland had no problem shutting Miami down Thursday and I expect the same from tonight's Rockies starter, German Marquez. Marquez was exceptional on the road last season, posting a 2.95 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. He also set the team record for strikeouts w/ 230. Miami starter Trevor Richards is improving and had a much better second half than first half LY. Plus, he looked sharp in Spring Training. But ultimately he'll be doomed by the lack of offense. Miami also didn't help itself in the field yday, committing two errors. It's not as if Colorado's lineup needs the help as we saw when they put six runs on the board yday, all in two innings. 8* Colorado

10* Under Tigers/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): In a surprise, the Tigers beat the Blue Jays yday. It wasn't just that Detroit won. It was how. A 2-0 shutout was not seen as a likely outcome by most, not given the terrible projections for this Detroit pitching staff this year. There is a belief that this group will give up the most runs in all of baseball. But Opening Day starter Jordan Zimmerman took a perfect game into the 7th and the game was 0-0 after seven innings. The Tigers would win on a Christian Stewart 2-run HR in the top of the 10th. Surprisingly, I'll call for not many runs to be scored again tonight. Take the Under. 

Matthew Boyd will try and follow in Zimmerman's footsteps here for the Tigers. Boyd, who formerly was in the Toronto organization, has not had any real success against his old team. He's winless in four career starts against them and he's never won here at Rogers Centre either as part of the home team or as an opponent (0-3, 7.61 ERA). Despite that, and the fact it was a shaky Spring for Boyd, I still expect him to pitch relatively well here. One thing he has going for him is a high strikeout rate. The Under is 4-0 in Boyd's last four starts on astroturf. Also, Toronto has lost six straight times at home when facing a LH starter (going back to LY obviously). 

The Blue Jays counter w/ Matt Shoemaker. He too had a less than desirable Spring, but should pitch well here. In five career starts vs. the Tigers, Shoemaker is 3-1 w/ a 0.83 ERA. With the pitchers definitely ahead of the hitters this time of year and the teams combining for only six hits yday, I'm just not sure how this one could go Over the total. A Toronto win here (likely) would also benefit us as we could avoid having to play nine full innings (always nice w/ an Under bet). 10* Under Tigers/Blue Jays

8* Houston (4:05 ET): I have to say that I'm a little shocked the Astros didn't open higher on the money line for Opening Day. While last season was viewed as "disappointing" by many, this team is still two years removed from winning the World Series and has won 204 regular season games the L2 seasons. The line especially seems low considering Justin Verlander will be on the mound Thursday. I know Tampa Bay was a 90-win team LY and expects to again be in the playoff race for 2019. But I'm not convinced they can match LY's production, particularly in the pitching department. 

By any objective measure, Verlander had a really strong 2018 campaign. But given his 2.65 ERA and 0.916 WHIP, one would have figured he would have finished w/ better than a 18-10 WL record. The Astros actually had a losing record at home w/ Verlander on the mound (9-12), which is really shocking, but they were 14-2 in his road starts. Verlander led MLB in WHIP last season and was 5th in ERA. He is 8-4 w/ a 3.42 ERA and one complete game in 18 career starts vs. TB. As a team, Houston again projects to be very strong in '19. A year ago, they outscored opponents by 263 runs, the best differential in all of baseball. 

With a limited payroll, the Rays need to be smarter than the competition and they were last year by employing the concept of the "opener." By design, they would exclusively use relievers in games, each going about an inning per so. The result was one of the fewest number of runs allowed per game in the league. No team allowed fewer in home games. For today, it's a "traditional starter" in Blake Snell on the mound. Snell, like Verlander, had himself a very good 2018. But I'm suspect of him being able to duplicate a 1.89 ERA and 0.974 WHIP as well as a 21-5 TSR. The Rays won Snell's final 10 starts last season, but they're not sneaking up on anybody in 2019. 8* Houston

10* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): The Dodgers are down 0-2 and in some real trouble in this series. But at least they're out of Fenway Park and back home where they have a much better chance at containing the Boston lineup. As I previously stated numerous times during the regular season and playoffs, no team in the National League did a better job at preventing runs at home than the Dodgers. For the year, they are giving up just 3.5 rpg at Chavez Ravine. In five playoff home games, they have allowed just seven runs TOTAL, giving up two or fewer in four. Remember that the Red Sox lose the DH from the lineup here and the pitcher will have to come up to bat. In a must win spot, I'll make my biggest bet of the year on Dodger Blue.

Walker Buehler is the Game 3 starter for LA and the right man for the job as far as I'm concerned. I've consistently touted him throughout his rookie season. He's always available at a much cheaper price than staff counterpart Clayton Kershaw, which probably shouldn't surprise you, but consider Buehler has the better ERA and WHIP. I took him in the winner take all Game 7 vs. Milwaukee in the NLCS and he delivered w/ 4 2/3 strong innings. He allowed just one run and had seven strikeouts. Here at home, Buehler has been at his best. A 4-3 record in 13 starts (8-5 TSR) at Dodger Stadium is totally misleading when you consider he has a 1.67 ERA and 0.769 WHIP here. 

Rick Porcello gets the nod for the Red Sox and that's another thing I like as he represents a huge downgrade from Chris Sale and David Price, who started Games 1 and 2. Furthermore, Porcello is a righty, providing a solid platoon edge for the Dodgers' left-handed power lineup. (Both Sale and Price are lefties). This is just the 4th time since the start of September that the Dodgers have dropped B2B games. They haven't lost three in a row since mid-August and I don't see them doing so here w/ their World Series aspirations hanging in the balance. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Boston (8:09 ET): With another win tonight, the reality of a 4th Red Sox World Series title win since '04 would be even more likely. I think they'll get it. Not even an additional run and a half was enough last night for Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, who failed to cash for me on the run line. It was a 5-4 game heading into the home half of the seventh, but Boston piled on three more runs to make it a pretty easy Game 1 victory. This despite a somewhat shaky effort from starter Chris Sale. Boston's homefield advantage is very real as they're now 60-26 at Fenway Park this season. They also have a 17-4 interleague record in 2018, which is nothing new as they're 47-14 vs. the NL since the start of the 2016 season. In five of the last eight games, the offense has scored 7+ runs. 

Much attention will be paid to Red Sox Game 2 starter David Price. He FINALLY picked up a postseason victory, the first of his career, last week in the close out game vs. Houston. It was a dominant performance as Price went six innings w/o allowing a run and gave up only three hits. He had nine strikeouts and zero walks. He'd previously gone 0-9 in 11 career playoff starts (1-10 TSR), but I believe winning that close out game in the LCS was a turning poing for him. Remember that Price had a very good year. He has a 24-9 TSR w/ a 3.68 ERA and 1.157 WHIP. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu goes here for the Dodgers and he's facing a tall task. With the Game 1 victory over Kershaw, Boston is now 15-5 vs. left-handed starters at Fenway Park this year. Like Kershaw, Ryu has never pitched here in Boston before. In fact, Ryu has never faced the Red Sox before in his career. It will be the best lineup he's seen all season, one that averages 5.7 runs per game at home. Ryu struggled his last time out too; allowing five runs in three innings at Milwaukee. That was his worst start in a month, but remember this Red Sox offense was able to score 29 runs in five games against the Astros pitching staff. They're just too much here at home. 8* Boston

8* Run Line LA Dodgers (8:09 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Dodgers at +1.5. Clayton Kershaw getting an additional run and a half to work with, at anything but a totally exorbitant price, is virtually unheard of. So I'll jump on this rare opportunity in Game 1 of the World Series. I've expected the Dodgers to be in this position for some time now. Long ago, I called them the best team in the National League and while it took seven games to dispose of the Brewers, here we are. Boston eliminating Houston, in five games no less, was a tad bit more surprising. What's not surprising is that the Red Sox are making this a battle of lefty aces, sending Chris Sale to the mound. As much as we should fear the Red Sox lineup inside Fenway Park, the Dodgers do benefit from a DH here and Sale's health has become a bit of a concern.

Kershaw has already pitched three times this postseason. He has a 2.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP and was lights out ttwo wo of the three times. Now the exception did come on the road. That was Game 1 of the NLCS at Milwaukee where he was betrayed by a shocking mistake (HR allowed to a relief pitcher) as well as his defense. But he immediately bounced back by holding the Brewers to one run and three hits (in 7 IP) in Game 5. Perhaps most importantly, he had nine strikeouts. Kershaw's overall resume obviously needs little introduction as he's been one of the top pitchers in baseball for several years now. The Dodgers are 10-1 in his L11 starts w/ that one loss coming by - one run - a result we'd also take in this situation. 

The big news w/ Sale is less about performance and more about health. Over the last week, he's had to battle a stomach illness, which was serious enough to cause an overnight stay at a hospital. There's been some debate over the cause of that illness, but the bottom line is that Sale has thrown only four innings in the last 17 days and just 21 1/3 innings since August 12th. The Dodgers' lineup, which already averages 5.3 rpg on the road, now benefits from the designated hitter. The DH rule will also benefit Kershaw, who doesn't have to worry about hitting. In their last five games at American League parks, the Dodgers went 4-1 and scored eight or more runs three times. They're my call here plus the 1.5 runs. 8* Run Line LA Dodgers (+1.5)

10* LA Dodgers (8:09 ET): It's all come down to this in the NLCS; a winner-take-all Game 7 Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Dodgers failed in their first attempt to close out the Brewers, losing 7-2 last night as they were jumped on early and never recovered. The Brew Crew scored four runs in the first and that was all they needed. But even though this game takes place in Miller Park; I don't see the Dodgers failing twice. All season long, my read has been that they are clearly the top team in the National League. I'm not going to waver now. Over the past two months, there have been only two times that LA has dropped B2B games. I'll call for them to win Game 7 and move on to face Boston in the World Series. 

 The Dodgers will start a rookie in the most important game of their season. But something else I've been saying all year is that rookie, Walker Buehler, is the best #2 in any rotation in baseball. You could even make the argument that Buehler even gave Clayton Kershaw a "run for his money" for who was the best pitcher in the Dodgers' rotation. Buehler had a slightly better ERA (2.67) and WHIP (0.92) than Kershaw. While his numbers did dip on the road, I'm not overly concerned w/ that nor his two shaky performances in this postseason. Buehler will be taken out at the first sign of trouble (if there is one) and speaking of Kershaw, he is available tonight out of the bullpen, which is certainly a nice luxury to have. 

Milwaukee goes w/ Jhoulys Chacin, who has certainly been their best starter in 2018. They also were able to give ace reliever Josh Hader the night off yesterday due to building such an early lead. Chacin beat Buehler in Game 3 out in LA and has not allowed a single run in two postseason starts (10 1/3 IP). But he was actually better on the road than at Miller Park this season. Home teams are actually below .500 all-time in Game 7's (55-56) and I would worry about this Brewers team lack of experience in the situation. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Under Red Sox/Astros (8:05 ET): It's tough to believe that Houston won't go down "swinging" here as they look to avoid elimination at home. This team dropping four in a row would be almost unprecedented as it's happened only twice all season. They suffered two five-game losing streaks, one in late July, the other in mid-August. It would be even tougher to imagine their season ending with three consecutive losses at home. Yet, that's the situation they face tonight in Game 5. Coming into this series, I was pretty outspoken that the Astros were the better team here. That looks not to be the case and as a result, I'm "punting" on them here. But Justin Verlander starting at home does give them a good chance to stay alive and I think he'll keep this one low-scoring. 

If you recall, I backed Verlander in Game 1. He allowed just two runs on two hits over six innings in what is the Astros only win of the series. It has been a remarkable year for Velander, who has been one of baseball's best pitchers w/ a 2.56 ERA and 0.901 WHIP. His 9-11 TSR here at home is quite misleading as his numbers at Minute Maid Park are roughly identical to his overall numbers. In fact, his WHIP (0.831) is even lower here. The Astros have won the last seven times Verlander has started w/ him allowing just eight runs in 44 1/3 innings. He has a 1.62 ERA and 0.699 WHIP during that time. If he can keep his team in front here, it would be nice as we could avoid having to play the bottom of the ninth, which is always nice when holding an Under ticket. 

The key here will be David Price, Boston's starter who has still NEVER won a postseason start in his career. That's astounding. He is 0-9 in 11 career playoff starts, though the Red Sox did rally to win Game 2 when he was on the mound, the first time Price's team ever won w/ him on the mound in the postseason. Price has simply not been very good of late w/ a 7.94 ERA and 2.028 WHIP his L3 starts overall. But I think he's poised to surprise tonight. Houston doesn't average as many runs per game at home as they do on the road. At the same time, Boston also scores fewer runs per game on the road than the do at home. I know every game in this series has gone Over, but that changes after tonight. 10* Under Red Sox/Astros

10* Houston (8:39 ET): After "stealing" Game 1 at Fenway Park, the Astros now find themselves trailing in the ALCS, two games to one. They went down at home last night, 8-2, as the Red Sox poured it on late including a Jackie Bradley Jr grand slam. This is now the first time since the start of September that the Astros find themselves off B2B losses. They have not lost three in a row since a swoon in mid-August and there have only been six losing streaks of three or more games all season. I still believe the Astros are the better team here and will ride them in Game 4. 

Tonight is an interesting starting pitching matchup. Charlie Morton makes his first postseason start for Houston. This will be his first time pitching in two weeks and he's thrown all of four innings in the last month. Morton did go 15-3 in 30 starts in the regular season and finished strong w/ a 0.60 WHIP his L3 starts. He faced Boston twice in the regular season, going 1-1. Ironically, the bad start was here at home, but that doesn't concern me. Even if it ends up being a short night, remember the Astros bullpen lead the league in ERA. I don't think Morton is going to allow much damage here. 

Boston goes w/ Rick Porcello, who was originally going to start Game 3, but had to be pushed back due to working Game 2 in a relief role. Like Morton, Porcello hasn't exactly thrown a lot of innings over the last month. The Boston bullpen has been very good in this series, but I see Porcello giving up some runs before they are able to "go there." Houston was 1 for 8 w/ RISP last night and I can't see that happening again. I think Porcello bouncing back and forth between being a reliever and starter may have an adverse effect on him and look for the Astros, who are "too good" to drop B2B games at home, to take advantage. 10* Houston

10* LA Dodgers (9:09 ET): Well, the Dodgers are down 2-1 in the NLCS after being shut out at home last night, 4-0. Save for the ninth inning, they never really threatened as Jhoulys Chacin and four Milwaukee relievers combined to hold them to just five hits. It's the definition of a "must-win" scenario here in Game 4 for Dodger Blue and while the Brew Crew have won 13 of their last 14 games, I think the home team can do it. I can't see their offense getting shutdown in B2B games at home and the starting pitching matchup is more heavily tilted in their favor for Game 4 than it was in Game 3. 

Rich Hill starts tonight for the Dodgers. While the top of Milwaukee's lineup has given him some trouble through the years, Hill still posted a 1.50 ERA in two starts against them in the regular season. Both starts saw him last six innings and give up just one run. I'm banking on something similar tonight. Hill started the close out game in the LDS vs. Atlanta and while he was kind of shaky there (five walks), he did allow only two runs on four hits. The team has won each of the last six times Hill has started, often in lopsided fashion (outscored the opposition 65-18!) and he has a 1.47 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in the last three. He should be comfortable pitching at home. 

For the second time in four games, Gio Gonzalez gets the start for the Brewers. This illustrates just how thin their rotation really is. Gonzalez didn't last long in Game 1, going just two innings. The bullpen bailed him out in an eventual 6-5 win, but I don't see history repeating itself. Manny Machado crushed a home run off Gonzalez in Game 1, so that matchup is something to keep an eye on here. Gonzalez figures not to last long again tonight, but this time it could be more performance based than by design. His TSR on the road this year is just 5-11 w/ a 4.82 ERA and 1.414 WHIP. I look for the Dodgers to even this series up at two games apiece. 10* LA Dodgers

8* Houston (5:09 ET): It appeared as if the Astros were destined to go up 2-0 in this best of seven ALCS when they took a 4-2 lead in the top of the third inning Sunday night. But it was not to be as the Red Sox quickly answered w/ three of their own and their bullpen was able to render Houston's starting pitching edge null and void. But my read on this series still hasn't changed as I view the Astros as the superior team here. They did their job in earning a split in the two games in Boston and now I believe they'll really start to assert their superiority here at Minute Maid Park. Remember that Sunday was the Astros first loss this postseason.

Dallas Keuchel will get the start for the Astros in Game 3. It says something about their rotation (hint: it's really good!) when he's your #3 starter. Keuchel started the clincher in the ALDS at Cleveland and allowed just two runs in five innings. He has always pitched better at home than on the road. This year, the split was not quite as pronounced, but I still certainly trust him in this spot more than I do Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi. Keuchel's one regular season start against Boston did not go so well, but it was in Boston. Since the start of July, the Astros are 12-6 in Keuchel starts. Not only is he working on extended rest here (4-0 TSR on 7+ days rest, btw), but the team is 10-1 off a loss since mid-August. 

The Red Sox rotation appears to be in a state of flux right now. Eovaldi only gets the call for Game 3 because Rick Porcello was used in relief Sunday. Ace Chris Sale has reportedly fallen ill and there couldn't be a worse time for that. David Price is a broken man in the playoffs. So a lot is resting on the arm of Eovaldi here. He was 6-7 w/ a 3.81 ERA in the regular season. He did pitch Game 3 of the LDS vs. the Yankees and was supported in an incredible way (Red Sox won 16-1!). Don't expect that to happen here though. What you can look for, however, is more lefties in AJ Hinch's lineup against the righty Eovaldi, who did not face Houston in the regular season. The Red Sox are just 2-5 in Eovaldi's last seven starts against teams w/ winning records. 8* Houston

8* LA Dodgers (7:35 ET): Dodger Blue has been my choice in this series and I'll stay consistent as things shift to Chavez Ravine for Game 3. Milwaukee chose to wait until now to unveil their top starter Jhoulys Chacin, which ideally gives them a better shot on the road. However, the reality of the matter is that Chacin is not better than any of the Dodgers' top three starters. After Clayton Kershaw shockingly imploded in Game 1, Hyun-Jin Ryu was "good enough" in Game 2 by holding the Brewers to just two runs in 4 1/3 IP. Back at home, I expect LA's significant edge in starting pitching to be on full display w/ Walker Buehler tonight and I'll go w/ them here. 

I've said it before & will reiterate it again here: Buehler may be the best #2 starter in any rotation in all of baseball. The rookie turned in a ridiculous year as he has a 2.55 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in 24 starts. Pay no mind to the fact he gave up five runs in his LDS start vs. Atlanta as that was on the road and he was victimized by a grand slam. Here at home, Buehler has a 1.34 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. Remember the Dodgers didn't allow ANY runs in their two home games in the LDS. That's pretty par for the course as they were #1 in the NL in run suppression at home during the regular season. They give up just 3.5 runs per game here. Buehler held the Brewers to one run on five hits (7 IP) the lone time he faced them this year. 

Chacin has pretty good numbers, but he typically doesn't go very deep into starts and he isn't overpowering as evident by a low strikeout total. Chacin hasn't gone a full six innings since the end of August nor has he had more than five strikeouts in a start since then. I don't see him getting much run support here. I know Milwaukee had won 12 in a row before the Game 2 loss, but there's like some "give back" now that the streak is over. Also, this is technically a "day game," a situation the Dodgers are 29-18 in this year while the Brew Crew is just 31-32. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Houston (7:09 ET): Remember what I said about the Astros being the superior team in this series? Well, cashing them as my *10* Game of the Week in the ALCS opener only emboldened that stance and I'm coming back w/ them again here in Game 2 as the starting pitching matchup is really lopsided in their favor. Boston is in some serious trouble having lost Chris Sale's start. I know the Red Sox deserve respect in Fenway, but I am shocked by the money line for this matchup. 

If you recall, I went against David Price in his ALDS start vs. the Yankees. I did so for good reason. His postseason resume is beyond atrocious at this point as he has zero wins in nine career tries w/ a 6.03 ERA. This is after getting only four outs against the Yankees and allowing three runs. Now the Yanks really seemed to have Price's number this year, but it's not like the Astros should be any kind of favorable matchup. This is the best team in baseball and the defending World Series Champs who average a healthy 5.4 runs per game on the road. Price faced the Astros twice in the regular season and had a 1-1 TSR. He pitched pretty good in both starts, but I look for this spot to be "too big" for him yet again. 

Hopefully not lost in the 7-2 Game 1 loss is the fact Boston had only three hits. This is supposedly the best offensive team in baseball, particularly when playing in their home park. The Red Sox had just three total bases in the game as they had no answer for Justin Verlander outside of the fifth inning. The Astros have the luxury of having multiple "aces" in their rotation and Gerrit Cole will start Game 2. Cole completely shut down Cleveland in the LDS, giving up only one run on three hits in 7 IP and exiting w/ 12 K's. He has a 25-8 TSR and the team is a perfect 7-0 his L7 starts. Don't forget that the Astros were a better team on the ROAD during the regular season. They've scored 18 runs in two playoff road games so far and I see them taking a commanding 2-0 lead in this series. 10* Houston 

10* Houston (8:05 ET): Like in the National League, I've been pretty adamant all year about one team being the best in the American League. The gap may not be as wide here as it is in the final Senior Circuit pairing, but nevertheless I prefer the Astros solidly over the Red Sox in the ALCS. That doesn't mean I won't play on Boston if the spot dictates such a move, or if something significant happens between now and the end of the series. But the fact is that the defending World Series Champs w/ their best pitcher on the hill are a great value here in Game 1. This will only be the 11th time all season that Houston checks in as an underdog on the money line.

The difference between the Astros and Indians was greatly underestimated by some (me included). The 'Stros greatly outclassed Cleveland in every department, starting with the starting pitching. Justin Verlander easily outdueled Corey Kluber in Game 1 of that series and didn't even have his best stuff. I made the mistake of taking Kluber +1.5 in that game w/ part of the reason being that Verlander's TSR at Minute Maid Park was only 8-11. Well, on the road it's 13-2. No matter where Verlander has pitched this season, he has been downright filthy w/ a 2.54 ERA and 0.898 WHIP. The team has gone 6-1 in his last seven starts w/ Verlander posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.710 WHIP. He faced the Red Sox once in the regular season, back in June, not factoring into a 5-4 loss. But it was a quality start w/ him allowing only two runs and three hits in six innings. 

Chris Sale is a more worthy adversary for Verlander than was Kluber and is backed by a better team to boot. However, whatever worries there are about Boston averaging 5.7 rpg here at Fenway should be mitigated by the fact Houston averages 5.3 rpg on the road. Sale, like Verlander, opened the LDS for his team. He had a similar line w/ two runs allowed in 5 2/3 IP, but gave up five hits to Verlander's two. Remember that the last time Sale went six innings in a start was late July as he was absent almost all of August and used sparingly in September. Sale allowed four runs in his only regular season start vs. Houston, which was a 7-3 loss opposite Gerrit Cole. Houston has the better bullpen in this series. I know the difference between the two teams' regular season run differentials (Houston +263, Boston +229) isn't enough to offset the homefield advantage, but I still like the Astros. 10* Houston

8* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): I've been pretty adamant that the Dodgers are the best team in the National League as run differential is a far more important metric to me than won-loss record. The Dodgers were way in front in that metric, outscoring their opponents by 194 runs during the regular season. That was double all but two other Senior Circuit teams, the Cubs and Braves. Nothing I saw in the LDS dissuaded me from thinking Dodger Blue is the favorite as they rocked the Braves in all three wins, holding them to two runs while scoring 15. Really, if not for one swing of the bat (an Atlanta grand slam) that series would have been a sweep. Milwaukee did sweep Colorado in their LDS and has won 11 in a row overall. But they are less talented roster in this series and up against Clayton Kershaw in Game 1. 

I don't think there's any disputing that LA has the superior starting rotation in this series. It is of course led by Kershaw, who was filthy in his lone LDS start as he tossed eight shutout innings of two-hit ball. Surprisingly, he had only three strikeouts, but that hardly mattered as he was never threatened. It was the best playoff start of Kershaw's career. The Dodgers have now won Kershaw's last nine starts going back to mid-August w/ him posting a 0.895 WHIP in his last three. There have been only four starts all year where Kershaw allowed more than three earned runs. One of those four did come against the Brewers, but three of the four runs charged to him were unearned. He faced them again two weeks later and got more than enough run support in a 21-5 win. Kershaw allowed just two runs and five hits in that one. 

While Kershaw was an easy call for Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts, the Brew Crew took their sweet time announcing a Game 1 starter. You'll recall they actually went w/ a "bullpen game" to open the LDS. I actually think that doing the same here would have been a wise option here. However, I definitely think going w/ Gio Gonzalez instead of Jhoulys Chacin is a mistake. Chacin is the Brewers' best starter, but will be held off until Game 3. Gonzalez was a mid-season acquisition who did not appear at all in the LDS. He did go 3-0 in five September starts, but is highly unlikely to outduel Kershaw here. The Brewers do have the better bullpen, but it's not enough to overcome the starter discrepancy and they'll find the Dodgers to be a far greater challenge than the Rockies were. 8* LA Dodgers

8* NY Yankees (8:05 ET): The Yankees were beaten and humiliated last night, losing Game 3 by a score of 16-1. That moves them to the brink of elimination and the question becomes "is 24 hours enough to recover from such a loss?" I'll answer that question in the affirmative as they should stay alive and force a deciding Game 5 in Boston Thursday night. New York is 8-3 this season after allowing 10 or more runs the previous game.

It'll be up to playoff veteran CC Sabathia to keep the Yanks alive. Note the team was in this same position (down 2-1 in the series) twice in last year's postseason and won both times, each victory coming at home. This will be Sabathia's 24th career playoff start and while the hefty lefty is just 10-6 w/ a 4.20 ERA in those games, for whatever reason he's always been brilliant in the LDS where he's 6-0 all-time. As a Yankee, Sabathia has done his best postseason work, going 8-3 w/ a 3.26 ERA. Obviously, he's faced Boston many times. The last time he faced them here in the Bronx was June and he held them to one run over seven innings. Despite the disaster that was last night, I also still have great faith in the Yankees' bullpen. 

Alex Cora badly outmanaged Aaron Boone last night, but things can't possibly go as well for the Red Sox in Game 4 as they did in Game 3. Brock Holt isn't hitting for the cycle again nor is Rick Porcello likely to be as effective as Nathan Eovaldi was. Porcello's postseason resume isn't good as he's winless in 12 appearances w/ a 5.33 ERA. Four of those appearances have come w/ a Red Sox uniform on and his ERA is 7.00. His 22-11 TSR from the regular season is more a byproduct of run support than pitching well. He did throw two shutout innings against the Yankees on Friday, but hasn't gone longer than five innings in six of his last seven starts. I have to think that the Yankees are going to bounce back from what happened last night. 8* NY Yankees

8* LA Dodgers (4:30 ET): The Dodgers failed in their first attempt to eliminate the Braves, but the beauty of going up 2-0 in a series is that you'll have multiple chances to close things out. And let's be honest here, save for one swing of the bat, the Braves have done very little in this series are are completely overmatched. Were it not for Ronald Acuna Jr's grand slam in the second inning last night, this series would be already over. The Dodgers shut the Braves out both games in LA and have held them to one run in the 25 innings that didn't feature Acuna's grand slam. The Braves have just 13 hits for the series and if you take out that grand slam, then they would have been held to 0 or 1 run seven times in the last eight games! This series ends today. 

Not to keep harping on it (but I will!); that grand slam was such a gift for the Braves. It came after two walks and a throwing error. Assuming such folly doesn't take place again today, expect the Braves to manage very little offensively against Rich Hill. Hill finished the regular season strong with a 6-1 record his last seven starts to go along w/ a 0.805 WHIP. He threw seven shutout innings in his last start, giving up only two hits. He has 14 strikeouts and no walks his last two starts and has allowed just one run on six hits. In this park, back on July 26th, Hill tossed seven more shutout innings and held the Braves to just three hits. Let's not forget LA has an excellent bullpen as well. 

For the second time in four games, the Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz. In Game 1, he lasted only two innings and gave up four runs. It was a miserable outing as he allowed 2 HR's and walked three batters. I understand he was the team's best starter in the regular season, but I'm not sure what the rush is to get back out on the mound. Of course, this also speaks to the overall lack of depth in Atlanta's starting rotation. The Dodgers are one of baseball's highest scoring road teams (5.4 rpg), so I expect them to put plenty of runs on the board today. Again, barring anything like the 2nd inning of last night's game, I simply don't see the Braves doing much at the plate here. It's been a wonderful season for this young team, but it ends Monday. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Astros/Indians (1:30 ET): I believe there's a chance that first pitch time could be moved here depending on what happens in Sunday's NLDS action. Regardless of that, Over is my play for Game 3 of Astros-Indians. Houston has a commanding 2-0 series edge heading into Monday, having held Cleveland to three runs on six hits. But we should see a major offensive outburst this afternoon at Progressive Field - from both teams. The Indians ranked near the top of the league, averaging 5.5 rpg at home. Only two teams - the Red Sox and Yankees - scored more in their home parks. Meanwhile, the Astros ranked near the top of the league in runs scored per game on the road w/ 5.2. They actually averaged more rpg on the road than at home. Like I said, I'm on the Over here.

Dallas Keuchel, because he is a southpaw, might be the friendliest matchup for Cleveland hitters in this series. He certainly can't be any better than rotation-mates Verlander and Cole were in Games 1 & 2. The Cleveland lineup consists of mainly righties and switch-hitters, so it's a good platoon split for them. Also, Keuchel allowed opponents a .273 batting average on the road as opposed to .253 at home. He was not sharp down the stretch w/ a 6.23 ERA and 1.846 WHIP his L3 starts. Even in his last outing, designed to be just a tune-up for the postseason, he got into considerable trouble over his three innings of work. Both Keuchel starts vs. Cleveland this year went Over. 

Also, in the Astros' only visit to Progressive Field during the regular season, all four games of the series went Over. Those four games averaged 14 total runs scored. The Astros scored at least six runs in every game. As I said earlier, this offense was actually better on the road during the regular season. They'll face Mike Clevinger Monday, who did have a strong finish to the regular season. But like most of the Indians rotation, he feasted on facing terrible division opponents all year. Three of his last seven starts alone came against Kansas City. The Indians' bullpen also seems to be in tatters right now. Cleveland will score more in Game 3, I'm just not sure it will be enough to survive. 10* Over Astros/Indians

10* Colorado (4:35 ET): After dropping the first two games in Milwaukee, the Rockies should bounce back in a major way at home in Game 3. I probably shouldn't have to tell you about the effect Coors Field can have on an offense, specifically that of the home team. At Miller Park, the Rockies were held to just two runs in 19 innings. Were it not for a two-run rally in the ninth inning in Game 1, they would have been shutout both games. They had just 10 hits total in the two games. But at home, things will change. As per usual, the Rockies ranked near the top of the league in runs per game at home w/ 5.5. I wonder if all the travel over the last week caught up with them as they played four games in three different cities over a five-day span. Being off Saturday was about as welcome as the return home itself. 

A big difference between Rockies' teams of the past and this year is the starting pitching. Finally, this franchise has itself a quality rotation. Pitching certainly was not an issue in Games 1 & 2 nor will it be here in Game 3 w/ German Marquez on the bump. Marquez has been shockingly good down the stretch w/ a 2.33 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his L7 starts. In six of those seven starts, he's struck out nine or more batters. Yes, Milwaukee's offense should also be able to get a "boost" by hitting here, but Marquez should be able to limit them adequately. The last time Marquez pitched here at home, he threw seven shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ 11 K's. He has a 1.93 ERA and 0.911 WHIP his L3 starts overall.

Colorado was going to improve offensively no matter what, but facing Wade Miley will help even more. The Rockies have a predominantly right-handed lineup, so facing the southpaw Miley will be right in their wheelhouse. Miley had a somewhat shocking 12-4 TSR in the regular season w/ a 2.57 ERA. But I remain skeptical. There have been just two times in the last eight starts where he's gone longer than five innings and just one where he's gone longer than six. The Brewers' bullpen isn't a terrible option, but this venue obviously presents its challenges. I know Milwaukee has won 10 in a row, but I just see too much Colorado offense in this one in a game they have to have. 10* Colorado

10* NY Yankees (8:15 ET): The Yankees have now dropped five straight playoff games to the hated Red Sox dating back to the infamous 2004 ALCS when Boston would go on to "break the curse." Last night saw the Sox jump on Yankees starter J.A. Happ early for five runs in the first three innings. That was more than enough for Chris Sale, who had eight strikeouts on his way to his first career playoff victory. But Sale only lasted 5 1/3 innings and the Red Sox bullpen was pretty shaky. The Yankees did make a game of it, eventually falling 5-4, and that should give them confidence heading into tonight's Game 2. Unlike last night, I believe the Yanks will have the starting pitching edge and that should carry them to a victory as they look to even up this best of five series. 

Masahiro Tanaka is the Yankees Game 2 starter. He has a 1.44 career ERA in the postseason (four starts). Last year's postseason saw him allow just two runs in 20 IP. He's coming off a pretty good regular season as well w/ a 12-6 record in 27 starts. While a 3.81 ERA and 1.135 WHIP may sound somewhat pedestrian, note both numbers were lower out on the road, including a WHIP of 0.981. While three of his four starts against Boston weren't very good this year, one of them here at Fenway was. He allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings. As I'm about to get into, any struggles Tanaka may have w/ the Red Sox pale in comparison to his counterpart's against the Yankees. In nine career starts at Fenway, Tanaka has a 3.90 ERA. 

Needless to say, the pressure will be on Red Sox starter David Price tonight. He is 0 for 8 all-time in the postseason w/ a 5.84 ERA as a starter. In three starts vs. the Yankees this year, he is 0-3 w/ a 10.34 ERA. So you can see why I like this matchup from New York's perspective. Their predominantly right-handed lineup should continue to have plenty of success against the southpaw Price. Note that the current five-game streak the Red Sox have over the Yankees in the postseason is the longest by either team in the history of the rivalry. While some may be surprised to see the odds reflecting Game 2 as a toss-up in Boston, I actually believe that the Yankees should be favored. Look for them to steal one in Boston. 10* NY Yankees

8* Run Line Cleveland (4:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Indians +1.5. Yesterday was not a good day for the Tribe nor starter Corey Kluber. The staff ace simply wasn't himself in giving up three home runs (4 runs total) in just 4 2/3 innings. That was more than enough offense for Justin Verlander, who led Houston to the 7-2 Game 1 victory. That result puts Cleveland into somewhat of a "desperation spot" here in Game 2 as an 0-2 series hole would probably be too deep to climb out of against the mighty Astros. I still believe the Indians are undervalued in ths series and will take them to do no worse than a one-run loss this afternoon. 

Carlos Carrasco gets the Game 2 nod for Cleveland. I certainly expect him to perform better than Kluber did yday. For whatever reason, Kluber simply hasn't been good the L2 postseasons. Carrasco has just one career playoff start under his belt, but it was a good one. He held the Yankees to three hits in 5 2/3 scoreless innings in LY's ALDS. As for 2018, Carrasco was even better than he was in 2017. He had a lower FIP and walk rate while also improving upon his strikeout numbers. The good news for this game is his numbers were slightly better on the road than at home. He pitched here in Houston back in May and allowed just three runs in 7 2/3 IP. His career ERA at Minute Maid Park is 1.17. There have only been two second half starts where Carrasco allowed more than 3 ER.

Houston goes w/ Gerrit Cole for Game 2. What a stacked rotation this is. Cole was the team's most successful starter w/ a 24-8 TSR in the regular season and the team has won all of his L6 outings. It's going to be tough for the Cleveland hitters, just as it was against Verlander yday, but I expect that they won't have the added pressure of falling behind early today. Again, these teams are more even than you think. With Josh Donaldson in the Indians' lineup, their offense is better than it showed yday and what the regular season numbers might indicate. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

6* LA Dodgers (9:37 ET): Yes, the price is expensive and were this a regular season game and I'd probably stay away. But this is the postseason and in my eyes, the oddsmakers can't set a line high enough to steer me away from the Dodgers tonight. They won Game 1 easily, 6-0, and this figures to be a short series with the Braves. As discussed in yday's analysis, LA has the clear advantage in this LDS and is the superior team in virtually every way. At home w/ Clayton Kershaw on the bump, this could be the biggest single-game mismatch we'll see all postseason.

Kershaw was initially going to start Game 1, but was then bumped back a day so he could start on extended rest. I lauded the decision to go w/ Hyun-Jin Ryu yday as his numbers here at Dodger Stadium were pretty spectacular in their own right. He threw seven shutout innings as Game 1 was never in doubt. Now comes Kershaw, who need no introduction. Kershaw has a 2.56 ERA and 1.016 WHIP at home this season and the team has won his last eight starts overall. When working on five or more days rest this season, Kershaw has been better than normal, particularly when it comes to strikeout rate. He goes from averaging 7.6 K's per nine innings (3.21 ERA) on four days rest to 9.2 K's per nine innings (2.48 ERA) when working on five. This is a really tall order for a young Braves team playing in its first postseason together. 

Starting for Atlanta will be Anibal Sanchez, who has allowed 2 ER or fewer in six of his last seven starts. But to expect him to go toe to toe w/ Kershaw in this spot seems foolish. Sanchez almost didn't make the Braves' rotation back in the Spring as he was battling with Scott Kazmir for the final spot! So he's come a long way. But now he has to face the National League's top lineup and not only is he clearly the inferior starter in Game 2, but he has the inferior bullpen behind him. The Dodgers have faced Sanchez twice before in 2018. The last time saw him give up four runs in an 8-2 loss. Kershaw faced the Braves once this year and held them to one run over 7 2/3 innings. That was on the road. Here at home, he should be even more dominant as the Dodgers allow a league-low 3.6 rpg at home. 6* LA Dodgers

8* Run Line Cleveland (2:10 ET): This is a very rare opportunity to get Corey Kluber plus an additional run and a half. I'm jumping on the opportunity. Please note that this is a run line play on the Indians. The Tribe seem to be the "forgotten" team in the American League this season w/ the Red Sox & Yankees grabbing their usual headlines and the defending World Series Champion Astros coming into the playoffs as the favorite. But let's not forget it was Cleveland that came into LY's postseason as the betting favorite, spurred on by a 22-game win streak late in the regular season. Things didn't turn out very well for the Tribe as they blew a 2-0 series lead against the Yankees, losing at home in a deciding Game 5. But I like them a lot in this unaccustomed underdog role w/ Kluber on the bump.

Kluber did not have a good LDS last year as he was pulled early from both starts after shockingly allowing a total of nine runs in just over six innings. But he remains one of the best pitchers in baseball and had himself a great 2018. He actually set a new career high for wins w/ 20. The team went 21-12 in his 33 starts w/ three of the losses coming by one run. All of a sudden, we're now looking at a 24-9 mark when getting 1.5 runs as we're taking here. This was Kluber's fifth straight season w/ 200+ K's and he was one of four Indians starters to have 200+ K's, the first time we've ever seen a rotation pull that off in MLB history. Kluber faced the Astros twice this year, both back in May, and allowed only two runs in 13 1/3 IP. He had 17 K's and 0 walks.

Kluber should benefit here from the fact that Houston scored significantly FEWER runs at home during the regular season. While they averaged 5.2 rpg on the road, the 'Stros scored just 4.6 at home. We saw the Yankees' Luis Severino bounce back from a bad Wild Card performance last year to pitch well on Tuesday. I feel the same thing is set to happen w/ Kluber here in Game 1 of the LDS. Justin Verlander is obviously an outstanding pitcher in his own right, but the Indians are very familiar w/ him due to all his time spent in the AL Central. I also worry about the fact his TSR at home is just 8-11 w/ the end result of that being a loss of 19.1 units! This figures to be a low-scoring, day game where runs are at a premium. Taking the +1.5 seems logical. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

8* LA Dodgers (8:37 ET): Of the four LDS matchups, this one looks to be the biggest mismatch on paper. The Dodgers did have to play a 163rd regular season contest Monday (beat Colorado) to win the NL West. But make no mistake about it; this team is the class of the Senior Circuit. That's why I took them against the Rockies and will back them again here in Game 1 vs. the Braves. They finished w/ the top run differential in the NL at +194, which was nearly double that of every other team. They are the most talented team of the four in the field. Atlanta was a nice story coming from nowhere to win the East, but they feel like a "happy to be here" situation and are severely outgunned in this series. 

Clayton Kershaw was initially named Game 1 starter for LA, but that was then changed to Hyun-Jin Ryu. Eyebrows were raised over the change, but it makes sense considering the move allows both Kershaw and Ryu to work on normal rest. The reality is that the Dodgers would have a significant edge in starting pitching here, no matter who started. We know that they allow just 3.6 rpg here at Chavez Ravine, the lowest average allowed at home by any NL team. Ryu has a 1.65 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in nine home starts this year w/ the team going 7-2 in those games. He enters the postseason red hot having posted a 0.47 ERA and 0.737 WHIP his L3 starts overall. He's given up just one run in 19 IP during that span.

The upstart Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz for Game 1. He turned in a pretty fine season in his own right w/ a 2.85 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 31 starts. His 15-16 TSR was pretty misleading. His numbers did not go up on the road (2.48 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) during the regular season and the team actually had a better record on the road than at home. Foltynewicz's ERA (4.76) over his L3 starts was also a little misleading when you consider his WHIP was 0.882. But despite all that, he's outgunned here. The Dodgers have the better bullpen and offense, plus they took five of seven regular season meetings from the Braves. Foltynewicz started once against the Dodgers in the regular season and gave up four runs in five innings. 8* LA Dodgers 

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): While both teams had to play Monday (and obviously lost), this is an absolutely horrendous spot for Colorado. They're playing in a third city in three days (all in different time zones!) and second in a row away from home. Being away from the friendly confines of their own park means a predictable offensive decline will set in, like we saw yday in LA. The Cubs sure seemed like the less motivated side yday vs. Milwaukee, but that certainly shouldn't be the case tonight. I've been down on the Rockies most of the year as a serious playoff threat due to an uninspiring run differential that hovered around zero much of the way. Only a late sweep of the Phillies (at home) got that diff to a more respectable number. I'm not deviating from my yearlong take on the Rockies here. 

Jon Lester starts for this winner take all game for the Cubs and is a fine choice, given the situation. Lester has plenty of big-game experience and the team has won seven of his last eight starts. He actually pitched slightly better on the road in the regular season, but did close w/ a 1.87 ERA his L7 starts overall. Four of those seven starts took place here at Wrigley. These teams have not met since early May and Lester's lone start vs. the Rockies came on April 30th. It was here at home and he threw 5 2/3 innings while giving up only two unearned runs. As a reminder, Colorado's scoring average dips more than a full run per game outside of Coors down to 4.1. They managed just two runs on four hits yday in LA, both runs coming in the top of the ninth. They had just two hits through eight innings. 

The pitcher who faced Lester back on 4.30 will do so again here in the NL Wild Card Game. It's Kyle Freeland, who was one of several surprising arms in the Rockies rotation this year. Shockingly though, Freeland actually pitched better this year at Coors where his TSR was 13-2. It was 3-2 Cubs in the first Lester vs. Freeland battle and I see this one ending up far more lopsided. Yes, the Rockies have won 10 of Freeland's last 12 starts as well as 15 of the last 17. But none were against the Cubs and most of the wins came against the NL West. Can't see Chicago dropping B2B one-game situations at Wrigley. 10* Chi Cubs

8* LA Dodgers (4:05 ET): This play should not come as any surprise to those who have been following my baseball selections this year. When it comes to the NL West race, the Dodgers and Rockies may have tied for first place, but one is clearly superior to the other. The Dodgers outscored their opponents by a NL-best 191 runs over the 162-game schedule. Only two teams in all of baseball - Houston and Boston - had better YTD run differentials. Meanwhile, Colorado had a run diff of +38, which ranked only SEVENTH overall in the NL. For awhile, the Rockies' run differential was hovering around 0, that was until they destroyed the Phillies in a four-game set at Coors Field last week. But this one-game scenario takes place at Dodger Stadium. 

Walker Buehler gets the call here for Dodger Blue. Next to Clayton Kershaw (who pitched Saturday), he's the team's best one-game option on the mound. Since July 31st, Buehler has posted a sterling 1.70 ERA in 11 starts. He's faced Colorado five times this year and has 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Two of those starts came in September, the last one here at home and Buehler responded w/ a career-best 12 K's in a 5-2 win. That performance was part of a three-game sweep for the Dodgers. Buehler has been outstanding at home all season w/ a 1.48 ERA and 0.776 WHIP in 11 outings. Remember Colorado doesn't hit nearly as well on the road and their scoring average drops from 5.4 runs per game to 4.1. No NL team allowed fewer rpg at home than the Dodgers. So, the home field edge is big here. 

German Marquez will oppose Buehler here. In a head to head battle earlier this season, Marquez did get the upper hand. But that 2-1 final (in Colorado's favor) saw near identical stat lines from the two starters. Buehler allowed only one run on two hits in seven innings of work. Marquez allowed the same number of runs and hits in the same number of innings; the Rockies were just fortunate to get a late infield single. Something else to consider here is this is a day game. The Dodgers are 27-14 in day games this year, the best such win percentage in the Senior Circuit. I look for them to take care of business Monday afternoon and win the NL West. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Chi Cubs (3:20 ET): The Cubs may have already clinched a playoff spot, but they still need a win Sunday. They enter the final day of the regular season tied w/ Milwaukee for 1st place in the NL Central. At stake today is not only the division pennant, but also homefield advantage in the National League. If the Cubs and Brewers end up tied after today, then there will be a one-game playoff tomorrow (could be the same situation in the NL West). The Cubs have been in first place since mid-July, so it would be a psychological blow to have to enter the playoffs as a Wild Card. Speaking of psychological blows, St. Louis was eliminated from playoff contention yesterday. The Cubs should take advantage of that and come through Sunday. 

Mike Montgomery will pitch here for the Cubs. Considering that Yu Darvish's injury is the only reason he is even in the starting rotation, Montgomery has been a pleasant surprise for Chicago. He also might be the right man for the job today. In 11 career starts vs. St. Louis, he has a 2.70 ERA. He's off a bit of a rough outing where he allowed five runs in just four innings. But he'd also allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of six starts before that. St. Louis comes into today batting a collective .219 over the last week. Yesterday was actually their first win in a game where they had three or fewer hits all season. 

Whomever pitches today for the Cards will not be as effective as Miles Mikolas was yesterday. It's still scheduled to be Jack Flaherty, who is winless over his last five outings. He has a 5.06 ERA his L3 starts. With the Cards eliminated from contention, there's a chance Flaherty could be scratched. That would likely make the Cubs an even bigger favorite and increase their odds of winning. I'll stick with this play regardless as this is a great price on the Cubbies at Wrigley, given the situation. 8* Chi Cubs 

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The Rays could finish as the best team NOT to make the playoffs, in either league, whether you're looking at wins (currently 88) or run differential (+65). That's not a distinction any teams really aspires to have mind you, but the Rays have been a good team over the second half of the season. They've been at their best here at Tropicana Field where they've gone 49-29 for the year. Not only that, but no team allows fewer runs per game at home than this one (just 3.5). Now, none of this "rung true" in an ugly 12-1 loss yday afternoon to the Yankees. But the opponent tonight is much easier and it's a case of one starting pitcher having "immediate revenge" against the other. I'm on the Rays, who are clearly the better team, in this spot. 

These AL East rivals just met last weekend and split four games up in Toronto. The rubber match of the series, won by the Blue Jays, saw the exact same starting pitching matchup as we have tonight. Thomas Pannone outdueled Tyler Glasnow in a 4-2 Jays' victory, despite giving up multiple home runs. Both were solo shots though and that's basically all Pannone allowed over six innings (just six hits total). Glasnow allowed a home run himself and six hits total in his six innings. But he gave up one more run than Pannone. With the rematch taking place at Tropicana Field, I see some significant value in taking the revenge-minded Glasnow. He was -145 on the money line last Saturday, on the road. The price isn't much higher here at home where the Rays have been excellent. Toronto isn't a good road team either (32-46 record). Glasnow has turned in a quality start four of his last five times on the mound and has a 0.947 WHIP his L3 starts. 

This weekend will mark the swan song for skipper John Gibbons' on the Blue Jays' bench. The team announced Wednesday that Gibbons will NOT be returning as manager for 2019 and his players responded w/ what I'm sure had to be an emotional victory, beating Houston 3-1. But the fact is that Toronto isn't a good team and that's why Gibbons won't be back. They've been outscored by 118 runs over the course of the year, thus playing to the level of a 90+ loss team. Pannone might have pitched well at home vs. TB, but he has a 7.84 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in two road starts this season. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): For anyone my age or younger, the Pirates have not been that successful of a franchise, save for a recent run of Wild Card appearances. They won the old NL East three straight years (1989-91), but haven't captured a division pennant since. But there's actually a bit of history on the line this weekend as they seek to finish w/ a winning record in a non-playoff season for the 1st time since 1988. To do so, they'll need to win only 2 of 3 games here in Cincinnati. On the surface, that doesn't seem all too daunting. After all, they've beaten the Reds six straight. But I don't like Friday's pitching matchup from the Bucs' perspective plus the revenge angle is one I happen to believe in. While the Reds have their issues, I can't see them getting swept for a third straight time by their division rival. 

The Reds enter this series having dropped five in a row. Incredibly, the Under has cashed in each of their last 12 games. The late season swoon is kind of sad in the sense that the Reds had actually become fairly competitive for awhile under interim manager Jim Riggleman. You wouldn't know it by just looking at the WL record, but after starting the season 3-15, the Reds were actually playing .500 level ball for much of 2018. The recent woes began a long (10-game) road trip, but they did also just lose two at home to the Royals, which is embarrassing. But one edge Cincy has for Friday is they had Thursday off while the Pirates did not (shut out in Chicago). Riggleman is also trying to earn this job on a permanent basis, so he's not about to throw in the towel this weekend. 

It's a pretty ugly looking starting pitching matchup for Friday's opener, which I think actually works to the Reds' advantage. They'll face Nick Kingham, who did beat them here at Great American Ballpark back in July. But Kingham has gone 0-3 in his last four starts overall w/ a 12.19 ERA. Last time out, he lasted only an inning and a third while giving up six runs. He'll be opposed by Anthony DeSclafani, who is having his own issues of late. DeSclafani did lose to Kingham two months ago, but there have also been positive signs from him at times, like him striking out 10 batters in his most recent start. Here's hoping he's able to summon his form from early August (three straight starts of 7+ innings & allowing 1 > run or less) in his final start of 2018. 10* Cincinnati 

8* Under Phillies/Rockies (3:10 ET): This series has been as one-sided as it gets w/ the Rockies scoring 10+ runs in all three games and outscoring the Phillies 34-4 overall. Both teams have been in playoff contention much of this year, but that's changed as they're clearly trending in very opposite directions. Colorado has won six straight to take over the NL West lead while Philly has lost seven straight to fall below .500 for the first time since early April. Since August 5th, the Phils have gone just 15-32 overall. Calling Thursday "Getaway Day" for the visitors is apropos as they'd just as soon get the hell out of Coors Field and never come back. Today doesn't look any more promising for them given the recent struggles of starter Jake Arrieta. 

As someone who has taken the Under in two of the three games, this has also been a frustrating series for me. All three games have gone Over, almost exclusively due to the Rockies. Philadelphia, who is not a strong offensive team on the road to begin with (average just 3.8 rpg), has scored just four runs total and had just four hits last night. They had no answer for Rockies' starter German Marquez on Wednesday as the first eight hitters all struck out, matching a modern MLB record. I'm not concerned at all w/ Philly "coming alive" at the plate this afternoon. Antonio Senzalata will start for Colorado and each of his L5 starts have stayed Under the total. He has a 3.06 ERA and 1.056 WHIP his L3 outings. Over the last seven games, Philly is batting a collective .201. 

Therefore, this Under play almost entirely hinges on Jake Arrieta limiting the Rockies hitters. As alluded to earlier, Arrieta has struggled recently. He's given up exactly four runs in 5 of his last 6 starts, posting a 7.31 ERA during that span. Last time out, he lasted a season-low two innings w/ only 28 of 51 pitches going for strikes. As bad as that all sounds though, I just can't see Colorado scoring 10+ runs for a fourth consecutive game. Keep in mind they've scored those 34 runs in three games despite only coming up to bat eight, not nine, times in every game. Yes, it's Coors Field, so it's scary having to "count" on Arrieta here. But note the Rockies "only" average 5.4 rpg here at home. Even if Arrieta and company can limit Colorado to SEVEN runs in this game (not asking much!), the Under should come in relatively easy. 8* Under Phillies/Rockies 

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): I had the Giants last night as they were able to avenge Monday's loss to the Padres. The final score was 5-4 and, of all people, it was Madison Bumgarner that provided the game-winning hit in the bottom of the 10th. Now that scenario comes w/ a cost as Bumgarner will no longer start Wednesday, instead getting pushed back two days to face the Dodgers on Friday. But that's actually not a bad thing considering the pitching change will drive down the price and thus it's a lot more "affordable" to go against a bad Padres team in this spot. Casey Kelly will now start for San Francisco, making his third attempt at picking up his first win of the season. 

I really loved last night's spot for the Giants as the two starting pitchers had just faced off last week. The Padres Robbie Erlin had actually beaten the Giants' Chris Stratton, but that was in San Diego and I loved Stratton's chances at revenge here by the Bay. The Giants are now 3-2 vs. the Padres over the last week w/ the other loss coming Monday. As noted in yday's analysis, San Diego is a good fade when off a win. They're not in that situation tonight, but they aren't very good off a loss either (just 42-53). This is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire league, ranking 27th in runs scored, 30th in team batting average and 28th in OPS. The Giants aren't much better, but at least score more here at home where they are now 42-35 on the season. The Padres are 34-46 on the road. 

So while the Giants are just 5-17 in September, this is actually quite the ideal matchup. San Diego is starting Luis Perdomo, who is not good at all. Perdomo's nine starts in 2018 have produced a 7.94 ERA and 2.042 WHIP. This will be his 1st start since being recalled from Triple A earlier this month. His last several starts at the big league level weren't any good as he allowed six runs in 2 1/3 innings his last one. I think it's quite unrealistic to expect Perdomo to pitch well in this spot. Meanwhile, Kelly pitched okay in two starts back in August. He allowed just 3 ER in 10 1/3 innings, but received little run support. Both starts came on the road and one was opposite Noah Syndergaard. Tonight is a much better matchup. 8* San Francisco

10* Under Phillies/Rockies (8:40 ET): These are two teams that simply don't profile as "true" playoff contenders in my book. Both have run differentials that are indicative of a .500 level of play or below. In the case of the Phillies, it's definitely "below" and they are now out of the running for the postseason. That's due to a dreadful stretch where they've lost 31 of 46 games, including each of the last six. They've been blown out in both game so far in Colorado, losing 10-1 and 10-3. Those results now have the Rockies in playoff position, one-half game ahead of St. Louis for the 2nd Wild Card, not to mention one-half game off the lead in the NL West. But I still don't trust a team that is just +17 in run differential despite being 15 games above .500.

But w/ German Marquez on the bump this evening, it's difficult not to like Colorado's chances. Marquez is one of the few pitchers in history to thrive at Coors Field. That's likely owed to his number of strikeouts (210 in 184 1/3 IP), which is bordering on a Rockies' single-season record. But not only does Marquez have 11+ K's in four of his last five starts, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 11 straight starts. Opponents are hitting just .27 against him during that time w/ a .575 OPS. I don't see him having any difficulty shutting down a Phillies lineup that has scored just four runs total the past two days and averaging only 3.8 rpg on the road for the year. Over the last week, Phillies hitters have combined to go just .201 at the plate.

Now, for the Under to come in tonight, we obviously need the Rockies' bats quieted down. After being held to just 22 runs on a nine-game road trip, the offense has exploded for 20 in its first two games back home, which is traditionally the most hitter-friendly in all of baseball. The task of silencing them falls on Nick Pivetta, who did throw five solid innings in his last start. He gave up only one run on four hits to Atlanta, even though the Phillies ended up losing the game by one run. While he's not gone more than five innings in any of his L5 starts, Pivetta has allowed three runs or less in all five. Something to keep in mind is that the Under is 45-30-1 at Coors Field this season. All five times these teams have played in '18, the Over has hit, but I'll look for that streak to come to an end tonight. 10* Under Phillies/Rockies

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The 73-84 Mets are obviously not a very good team and have been relegated to simply "playing out the string" at this point. But when Jacob deGrom pitches, they are certainly due more than just a cursory look. deGrom gets the start Wednesday, looking to lock down what would be one of the oddest Cy Young campaigns in recent memory. deGrom's record in 31 starts this year is only 9-9 (13-18), but to call that "misleading" would be putting it mildly. He leads all of MLB in ERA (1.77) and is second in both WHIP (0.938) and strikeouts (259). Considering his Cy Young competition comes from pitchers on other non-playoff teams, deGrom should get the award, IMO. He has set a MLB records w/ 28 starts of three runs or less and 23 consecutive quality starts coming into tonight. 

In 16 career starts vs. Atlanta, deGrom's ERA is 1.83. Sure enough, his record is just 5-5 though. In a 2018 season filled w/ once in a lifetime hard luck, deGrom's pain has certainly been the Braves' gain. Despite five starts w/ a 1.09 ERA against Atlanta this year, deGrom is not only winless (0-2), but the Braves have won all five games. That's ridiculous. While it might seem like "banging your head against the wall" taking deGrom at this point, there is no doubt in my mind that he has been the best pitcher in baseball this year and worth the try. There have been an incredible 16 times this season where he has allowed three runs or fewer and NOT gotten the win. That has to change and how apropos if it did in his final start of the season. 

Atlanta has already clinched the NL East. What they have left to play for is possible homefield advantage in the LDS against whomever wins the Central or West (both divisions still up for grabs). Ironically, the Braves actually have a better record on the road than at home this year. Last night saw them come back from a 3-0 deficit to score seven times in the 7th & 8th innings. That isn't going to happen again as long as deGrom is in the game. Sean Newcomb toes the rubber for the Braves and he has a 7.44 ERA and 1.868 WHIP his L7 starts. Simply put, he can't match up w/ deGrom. The Mets do have a winning record (13-9) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range this season. 8* NY Mets

10* San Francisco (10:15 ET): These teams played a series last week w/ the Giants taking two of three in San Diego. Tonight's pitching matchup is the lone rematch from that series and ironically it's from the one game the Padres won. The Padres also won last night, starting this series out w/ a 5-0 win. But I like Chris Stratton and the Giants to turn the tables Tuesday as Stratton goes for revenge against Robbie Erlin, who got the win last Wednesday despite a less that great outing. Erlin allowed three runs in five innings, but it was more than enough as Stratton allowed five in three. But Stratton seems to be more comfortable pitching at home than he does on the road and that'll be the difference in this one. Take the Giants. 

It's not been a solid month at all for San Fran. In fact, their record in September is 4-17, which is too bad seeing as they came into this month still a .500 team. Two of those four wins came against the Padres last week and this is a much better team at home. They have a winning record at AT&T Park (41-35) while the anemic Padres are just 38-45 on the road. A real key to handicapping this battle is noting San Diego is 0-4 this season when off a shutout win. They're just 21-40 off a win of any kind. So fading them in this spot seems smart as I don't think their pitching staff will be able to do tonight, what they did yday. We know we shouldn't expect much from an offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in all key categories.

Stratton has a 3.95 ERA at home where his TSR is 8-4. Despite the poor start last week vs. SD, he still has a 1.059 WHIP his L3 starts. Two of his last three home starts have been outstanding as he's gone at least eight innings w/o allowing a run. One was a complete game effort vs. Colorado where he allowed just two hits. That was his last time pitching here at hme. Erlin's last road start saw him allow seven runs in three innings. He has a 7.76 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on the road this year and it's a real wonder how the Padres have managed to go 3-3 in those six starts. Look for the Giants to rebound tonight at home. 10* San Francisco

8* Run Line Arizona (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking Arizona +1.5. For all intents and purposes, the D'backs season became officially wrecked when they were beaten three straight times out in LA earlier this month. Granted, we didn't know that at the time, even though some of the writing may have been on the wall. The team is now 5-17 in September after losing to LA again last night, here at home, 7-4. They've been officially eliminated from playoff contention, something not lost on manager Torey Lovullo, who chose to sit both Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta last night. But the club still can finish w/ a .500 record for the year, which is something to play for. While Tuesday's matchup certainly looks as if Arizona is "up against it," I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss in this situation. 

Back in that last series these teams played, all three Arizona losses came by identical 3-2 scores and saw the Dodgers win in the final at-bat. We'd take such a result here given the bet. Last night, it was a 4-3 game entering the ninth before LA scored three times to break the game open. Matt Koch will start the game tonight. He's been a spot starter all year, filling in when needed and in the case it's a season-ending injury to Clay Buchholz that has him back in the rotation. On short notice, he filled in for Buchholz on Sept 13 and wasn't that effective. But that was a top spot as Buchholz was scratched while warming up. The last time Koch pitched, it was in relief and he threw four shutout innings. 

Walker Buehler has emerged as the Dodgers' second best starter, behind only Kershaw, who started last night. Buehler has been pretty dominant his last two starts, allowing just two runs, both of which were unearned. He had 12 strikeouts vs. Colorado his last time, in just six innings. As lopsided as this matchup may look on paper, don't be surprised if Buehler struggles as it'll be his first time starting in Chase Field. I look for Arizona to show some pride on Tuesday and give the Dodgers all they can handle. 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5)

8* Under Phillies/Rockies (8:40 ET): These teams combined to go Over in all three games of a series they played out in Philadelphia back in June, so you might assume plenty of scoring is set to take place here in hitter-friendly Coors Field. But I've got a different read on the matchup as each team comes into this series not hitting well at all. The Phillies saw their playoff chances dashed over the weekend as they were swept in Atlanta. So they'll come into this series disinterested and only averaging 3.6 rpg over the last week (.198 batting average). Colorado, whose own playoff chances have taken a significant hit over the last week or so, come in averaging just 3.1 runs their last seven games w/ a .192 average. So I'm on the Under here as the total is just too high. 

Yes, Colorado will be happy to be back home tonight as they try and chase down the Dodgers in the division and St. Louis for the Wild Card. On the just concluded nine-game road swing, they scored three runs or less seven times and went 4-5 overall. It was getting swept by the Dodgers that killed them. They do score and allow 5.2 rpg here at Coors Field, but that still wouldn't be enough to match oddsmakers expectations for this one. Truthfully, I have never been a believer in either of these clubs when it comes to making the postseason. Both have run differentials that would normally reflect a team playing at a .500 level or below. So I'm not surprised that they're now slumping at this most inopportune time. 

There's been a pitching change here for Colorado. Jon Gray now starts in place of the scratched Tyler Anderson. I'm sticking w/ the Under here. Gray will benefit from facing a Phillies lineup that averages just 3.9 rpg on the road. Meanwhile,Phillies' starter Zach Eflin has been able to put together a couple of decent efforts. He is 2-0 w/ a 0.79 ERA his L2 starts, having allowed just one run in 11 1/3 innings. Looking at the last nine games from both clubs, there's been just one instance of either scoring more than five runs. Don't be surprised when this game is lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Phillies/Rockies 

10* Under Padres/Dodgers (4:05 ET): Both of the first two games in this series have managed to just sneak Over the total. I wasn't happy about it last night as I had the Under. SD scored a "meaningless" run in the top of the ninth to send the game Over, a real shame seeing as a game that was 6-0 after three innings was 7-1 heading into the ninth. Friday's game followed a different script as not only did the Padres win, but it was a 3-1 game entering the 8th before ending up a 5-3 final. Despite those two results, I feel all the elements necessary for an Under remain present for today. The Dodgers are still #1 in the NL in fewest runs allowed at home. San Diego remains one of the worst teams in baseball and will be facing nemesis Hyun-Jin Ryu Sunday. Take the Under. 

A case could be made that the Padres are Ryu's favorite opponent. He's 6-1 in nine career starts against them w/ a 2.52 ERA. He's faced them twice this season and allowed just two runs both times. One of them, he was fortunate to do so (also gave up 11 hits), but I'm not worried. The Padres are the favorite team to face for many NL starting pitchers as they come into this game ranked 27th in runs scored, 28th in slugging, 29th in batting average and 30th (last) in on base percentage. As discussed in yday's analysis, the Dodgers are holding visitors to an average of just 3.7 runs per game this year. Ryu has a 1.85 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in eight starts at Dodger Stadium. Ryu is a lefty and San Diego typically does not hit southpaws very well.

The only "X-factor" here is Padres' starter Joey Lucchesi, but he's coming off B2B quality starts and has allowed 3 ER or less his L5 times out. Both his ERA (3.23) and WHIP (1.099) are better on the road than at home. His two starts against the Dodgers this year have both stayed Under as he allowed just three runs each time while his own offense scored a grand total of two runs in the two games. The Dodgers' offense can run hot and cold and hasn't scored more than three runs in B2B games in 10 days. They've done it only twice in September. Six of LA's seven runs last night came in one innings, three of them on a Manny Machado home run. They shouldn't have that kind of "cluster luck" again today. 10* Under Padres/Dodgers

10* Under Padres/Dodgers (9:10 ET): I was all set to play the Under on this matchup last night, but then the Dodgers went ahead and made a pitching change. Good thing I then chose to lay off as Ross Stripling lasted only 3 1/3 innings and the Dodgers actually lost the game 5-3. That was a 'push' when it comes to the total, but I'm "back in" Saturday as I've got the pitcher I wanted yday w/ Rich Hill going for LA. Let's note again that Chavez Ravine has long been notorious for visitor run suppression and 2018 has been no different. The Dodgers are giving up just 3.7 rpg at home this year, which is the lowest number in the National League. Meanwhile, San Diego is one of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball. They rank 27th in runs scored, they rank 28th in slugging, 29th in OBP and 30th (dead last) in batting average. Take the Under. 

Hill should perform much better than Stripling did. He does have a 6.75 ERA his L3 starts, but that's misleading given that his WHIP is 1.125 over the same stretch. He's actually given up eight runs in his last two starts despite allowing only six hits. Now walks were an issue his last time out, but w/ San Diego's lousy OBP, that shouldn't be a factor here. The last time Hill faced San Diego was here at home and he threw six scoreless innings. Hill is 7-1 (8-3 TSR) since the All-Star break, posting a 3.55 ERA. Obviously, the hope here is that the Dodgers have the lead entering the ninth inning, so therefore we avoid needing to play the final three outs. Last night, there were three runs scored (between the teams) in the ninth, including one from the Dodgers that ensured the Under would not cash. 

San Diego's bullpen has done an extraordinary job this month, posting the best ERA and WHIP in MLB. They did give up a couple of runs last night, making things interesting. By the way, it was a 2-1 game after six innings. So a precedent for a low-scoring game between these teams is there. We know the Padres' offense is bad, so basically all we need here is a strong effort from their starter, Jacob Nix. Something like his last time out where Nix surrendered only three runs in six innings. Nix has made seven starts total and four of them have been just fine. The Dodgers' offense remains "hot and cold," scoring three runs or fewer in 6 of the last 13 games. I imagine this will be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Padres/Dodgers

8* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): It's a crying shame that the Rays won't make the playoffs this year. The ingenuity shown by manager Kevin Cash - when it comes to his pitching staff - has been quite refreshing and would have been a joy to watch in the postseason. But alas, the Rays are facing a 6.5 game deficit in the Wild Card chase and time is rapidly running out. Ultimately, it may not have mattered, but Thursday's 9-8 loss here in Toronto was a killer. The Rays blew an 8-2 lead in that contest, giving up seven runs in the bottom of the ninth. But at least they bounced back w/ a convincing 11-3 win last night. That improved them to 15-4 in September and 6-1 the L7 games. I like them to continue this strong finish to 2018 w/ another win in Toronto this afternoon.

Outside of Cy Young candidate Blake Snell, Cash doesn't really have too many other reliable "starters" (in the traditional sense) in his rotation. So what he's done is turn to his bullpen and the concept of "openers," which has spread throughout baseball this season. A pitcher (usually from the 'pen) is asked to go an inning or two to open the game and then the rest of the bullpen takes over.  It has undoubtedly worked w/ the TB staff ranking top three in ERA, WHIP and opponents batting average. Today it will be more "traditional" start w/ Tyler Glasnow. The irony here is that Glasnow was used primarily as a reliever when he was w/ Pittsburgh earlier in the year! Like the rest of the Rays' staff, Glasnow has pitched well recently. He's off B2B quality starts and threw six scoreless innings his last time out. He didn't allow a hit until two outs in the fifth inning. 

Meanwhile, it's a been a bit of a "lost season" in Toronto, who started strong, but quickly fell off. They are 70-84 overall and have been outscored by 115 runs. Only six teams in all of baseball have a worse run differential and they are all the dregs you'd expect. They are very fortunate not to be down 0-2 in this series and while they've won five of their last seven, they've actually been outscored during that stretch. Thomas Pannone gets the starting nod for the Jays today and he has a 5.94 ERA his L3 starts. He's only made four starts all season and truthfully three of them have been good. But the one bad one (against Baltimore) skews everything. Still, I expect Pannone to struggle on Saturday as the Rays have had no problem scoring so far in this series (19 runs in 2 games). They are also 34-24 in day games this season. 8* Tampa Bay

THIS PLAY IS NOW NO ACTION DUE TO DODGERS PITCHING CHANGE! 

8* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): The Brew Crew are inching closer to a probable Wild Card berth, but would certainly like to host that game, if not win the NL Central outright. To do so, they'll need to perform better against the Pirates. Milwaukee's record against this division rival is just 5-11 this season and they dropped two of three at home to them last week. You might therefore deem it risky to take them here, on the road, with a pitcher who is 0-3 against the Bucs in 2018. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is fresh off a sweep of Kansas City and has won five in a row. However, that sweep of the Royals was not all that impressive considering all three games were decided by one run. I believe the Brewers are set to turn the tables on the Bucs Friday night. 

That 5-11 record for Milwaukee against Pittsburgh includes a 1-4 mark when Jhoulys Chacin is on the mound. But the kicker is that Chacin has actually pitched well in those starts, posting a more than respectable 2.51 ERA. This will be his second straight time facing them as Sunday saw him allow only two runs over five innings. While there's been some concern over the Brewers' offense of late, the Pirates have scored four runs or fewer in six of the last seven games. As I said earlier, that sweep of KC wasn't all that impressive when you consider every game was decided by a run, two of them by scores of 2-1. Remember the Royals are a terrible team too; they are one of the lowest scoring teams in the American League and had to play the series w/o a DH. 

Evaluating Chacin's recent record (0-3 TSR L3 starts) comes w/ the same caveat as his YTD record vs. the Pirates. He's actually pitched well. He's posted a 1.091 WHIP and has given up only four hits total in his last two starts (10 IP). Against Pittsburgh, he's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his starts. Milwaukee is off a shutout win here (beat Cincinnati 7-0 Wednesday) and is 8-4 this season after blanking their previous opponent. I look for Chacin to outduel Ivan Nova tonight as Nova might be off B2B wins, but he's never won three straight starts all season. Chacin is 9-3 on the road this year and w/ the Brewers being the better team here, this price is justified. 8* Milwaukee

10* Over Phillies/Braves (7:35 ET): We're about to find out if the NL East race is over or if it has "just begun." The 1st place Braves, currently holding a 5.5 game edge in the standings, welcome in the 2nd place Phillies this weekend for a four-game set. To me, Atlanta is clearly the better team. They've outscored opponents by 92 runs this year while the Phils have actually been outscored. (This is pretty similar to the race in the NL West between LA and Colorado that I've talked about in great detail). Philadelphia is not a good road team (31-42), but the problem is that Atlanta isn't exactly a great home team either (39-38) and hasn't been playing well of late. Therefore, we look at the total and I see Thursday night's games as one where plenty of runs will be scored. Take the Over. 

Atlanta did record a much needed victory Wednesday afternoon, beating the Cardinals 7-3. All three games in that series went Over, but the problem is the Braves lost two of them. I figure they'll score plenty in this game as they are one of the top offenses in the National League. Among NL teams, they rank third in runs scored, tied for 1st in batting average and 2nd in OPS. They average 4.8 rpg at home. They also have traditionally hit tonight's starter for the Phillies, Vince Velasquez, very hard. Velasquez has made four starts against the Braves this season and lost all of them. His ERA in those four starts is 7.41. He also has pitched poorly in his last three starts, all of which were against other NL East teams. Those produced a 9.82 ERA and 1.727 WHIP. He only made it through two innings his last time out and that was at home against Miami. 

I'm just not sure how much we can trust Kevin Gausman for Atlanta tonight. He's allowed a total of 10 runs his L3 starts, which have spanned 16 2/3 innings. While three of those runs were unearned, Gausman did give up one homer in all three starts. The Phillies have scored either 4 or 5 runs in each of the last five games, but have homered in four of them. They won via shutout last night (beating the Mets 4-0), but that's an unlikely scenario here. Whomever wins tonight is going to have to do so by scoring a lot of runs. Atlanta is giving up nearly 6.0 rpg over the last week. 10* Over Phillies/Braves

8* Under Rockies/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Finally the Dodgers are starting to assert themselves the way I thought they would. Obviously, it helps being a -200 favorite w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but they beat the Rockies last night (3-2 in 10 innings) and have opened up a 1.5 game lead in the NL West. For months, I've been saying how LA is the vastly superior team in this division as they own the National League's best run differential (now +153) while Colorado has actually been outscored this season. That means the Rockies are basically playing to the level of a slightly below .500 team. Thus, I don't see them being able to turn things around tonight in this finale of the three-game set. The price is too steep on the Dodgers again, but I do like the Under here. 

Walker Buehler will look to follow Kershaw's performance last night. He's been doing a good job of that most of this season. Buehler has emerged as a very dependable #2 starter in this rotation w/ a 1.75 ERA since July 31st. He's allowe 2 ER or fewer in eight of nine starts during that span and last time out threw eight shutout innings (allowed only two hits!) in a huge performance at St. Louis. The only time Buehler allowed more than 2 ER in those L9 starts came at Colorado, which is traditionally the most hitter-friendly park in MLB. However, Dodger Stadium is quite the opposite w/ an average of only 8.0 rpg scored here. Only a handful of parks (four, to be exact) see fewer runs per game scored and three of those are due to the inept offenses of the home team. The Dodgers allow the fewest number of rpg at home of any team in the NL. 

So switching venues from Coors Field to Dodger Stadium is definitely huge. Buehler has a 1.62 ERA and 0.787 WHIP in 10 home starts this season and the Under is 9-1. With the home team favored so prohibitively, there's a very good chance we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth inning tonight, which can be a big deal when playing an Under. Colorado only averages 4.2 rpg on the road w/ a .228 batting average. They've scored a total of seven runs their last five games, all of which have come on the road. The only "X-factor" here is Rockies' starter Tyler Anderson, but he pitched well in his last outing, holding San Francisco to just two runs in six innings. He had six strikeouts and no walks. The Dodgers can be "hot and cold" offensively as they've scored three runs or less in 5 of the last 11 games. 8* Under Rockies/Dodgers 

10* San Diego (9:10 ET): This level of endorsement from me is certainly rare when it comes to the Padres. But they've lost six in a row to the Giants and it's "high time" that streak comes to an end. The Padres were actually the bettors choice last night (money line bet way up), but they lost 5-4 after giving up a two-run single to Chris Shaw in the top of the eighth. Remember that it wasn't that long ago the Giants had lost 11 in a row. They turned things around by taking two of three from Colorado over the weekend, and I had them in both wins, but that series was at home. With wins in the first two games of this series, they've now won four of five, but this is still very much a bad road team by any objective measure. Their record away from home this year is 31-46. 

Starting here for the Padres will be Robbie Erlin. While I certainly wouldn't say he's pitched well this year, last time out Erlin made in through 5 1/3 innings while giving up only two runs and one was unearned. He also finished w/ 6 K's and 0 walks. San Diego still lost mind you, 4-0 to Texas. But at least it was a step in the right direction for Erlin. “I thought he was as good as he’s been all year as a starter," said skipper Andy Green about Erlin's last performance. Tonight will be the first time the Giants have faced Erlin in a starter's role this season. While Erlin has never beaten the Giants, the Bay Area native is poised to do so here. San Fran has swept just two road series all season and won three straight on the road only three times. The Padres have gone 6-1 the L7 times after allowing 5+ runs the previous game.

The last time we saw Chris Stratton pitch for the Giants, he threw his 1st ever complete game shutout. It was at home vs. the Rockies and I was on him. As good as he looked there, Stratton still has a 4.06 ERA his L7 starts and, generally speaking, has been fairly inconsistent this year. He still has a 5.03 ERA on the road w/ the team going just 5-7 in 12 starts. His L3 road starts have not gone well as he's allowed 18 runs in just 13 2/3 innings. He's allowed 25 hits as well, three of them home runs and has just nine strikeouts. While those three games were against teams better than the Padres, Stratton just hasn't been consistent enough for my liking. The Padres did beat him in San Francisco back in June. 10* San Diego

6* Washington (7:10 ET): The Nationals are certainly better than their record as they've outscored their opponents by a healthy 76 runs this season (4th best differential in the entire NL!). But losses like last night are indicative of why this club is currently 76-75 w/ basically no shot of making the playoffs. They blew a 4-0 lead - to Miami, mind you - and lost 8-5. The Marlins did all of their scoring in the fifth through eighth innings, taking the lead in the sixth (5-4) and then again (for good) in the seventh. Fortunately for the Nats, the Marlins are still a very bad team w/ the distinction of worst record (59-91) and worst run differential (-217) in the entire Senior Circuit. Washington also has Stephen Strasburg going Tuesday night. Like his team, he has owned Miami in his career. 

Strasburg hasn't necessarily been "himself" this season, especially when pitching at home. Fortunately for him, this game takes place on the road where he is 6-2 this season w/ a 2.26 ERA. Quite frankly, it hasn't mattered where Strasburg has pitched when facing the Marlins as he's gone 4-0 against them (0.67 ERA) going back to April of last year. His career numbers indicate even more dominance as the Nats are 19-7 the L26 times he's gone up against Miami. Here in September, Strasburg has pitched well, posting a 2.41 ERA and he's allowed 2 ER or less in four consecutive starts. He should do his job effectively tonight.

Sandy Alcantara will toe the rubber here for Miami and he has pitched well in his three starts this year, all of which have come against either the Phillies or Mets. He stays within the division for a fourth time here, sporting a 1.42 ERA and 0.947 WHIP thus far. However, I just can't look past the Marlins' general ineptitude as they are just 22-36 off a win this season. They've also given up an average of 7.1 runs the last seven games and as bad as their record is, it should be even worse given the difference between their number of runs scored and runs allowed. Look for the Nationals to bounce back Tuesday and earn a split of this short two-game set. 6* Washington

10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles (7:05 ET): Baltimore's pain was Toronto's gain last night as O's skipper Buck Showalter was forced to piece together a real skeleton crew on the mound due to a combination of injuries and general ineffectiveness. The end result was a 5-0 Blue Jays' victory and I'm a little surprised the beating wasn't even more severe considering it was 3-0 after the second inning. Two of the three homers Toronto hit yday were solo shots. Most of the damage was done against "opener" Evan Phillips, the first of three pitchers used by Baltimore last night. Truthfully, I'm surprised they didn't use more, given none of the three used had ever started a big-league game before. But the real key to last night's game staying Under was Jays' starter Ryan Borucki, who tossed eight scoreless innings and allowed just three hits. Expect a higher scoring affair tonight though as I'm on the Over.

Baltimore now has 107 losses, matching the 1988 team (who started 0-21!) for most in franchise history. Obviously, this team is going to set the record, possibly as early as tonight. The O's pitching staff is easily the worse in baseball as it's given up 830 runs in 150 games. The team that has given up the next highest run total is Texas, but they've allowed "only" 787. It will be a traditional starter going tonight, that being Dylan Bundy, who has had a real issue keeping the ball in the park this year. Bundy has allowed 38 home runs so far, most in MLB, and that's a real problem given Toronto just hit three last night. Bundy also sports a 9.35 ERA and 1.875 WHIP his last seven starts, having allowed 6+ ER four times. One of those was against Toronto as he gave up seven in just four innings. His L2 starts against Toronto have seen him allow 12 runs in nine innings.

I know Baltimore is bad, but I was shocked at Borucki's success last night, holding them to just three singles. It was the 15th time the Orioles have been shutout this season and they're only 3-11 off the previous 14 losses. It was the third shutout loss suffered in the last week, but the O's did come back to score five and eight runs respectively in the two games after. I don't see Aaron Sanchez having the same kind of success Borucki did as Sanchez has a 4.90 ERA and 1.545 WHIP for the season. Last night was just the third shutout of the year for the Blue Jays and they give up 5.1 rpg on the road. Toronto is actually the top Over team on the road in all of baseball (45-27-4) w/ an average of 9.5 total rpg scored. 10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The most famous rivalry in the sport is renewed Tuesday afternoon with this special matinee. Both the Red Sox and Yankees have known they're playoff bound for some time now, and in the case of the former, they've already clinched. The Yankees will soon too, but right now are trying to hold off the A's for home field advantage for what is all but assured to be the AL Wild Card matchup. Given the Yankees' home record (49-26), it would certainly behoove them to earn the right to host that one-game scenario. Entering the day, they are 1.5 games up on Oakland, who will be hosting the Angels tonight. The drive for homefield in the Wild Card Game should have NY highly motivated this afternoon as should the fact they have revenge against Boston for a prior sweep. I'm on the Yanks here. 

Last month, the Red Sox swept the Yankees at Fenway Park. It was a four-game series. But before that NY actually held the 5-4 edge in the season series. Though the Yanks are currently 11.5 games back of Boston, I feel the teams are a lot closer in talent than that. I like this opportunity to play against Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi, who comes in sporting a 7.72 ERA and 1.822 WHIP his L3 starts. He's also just 2-6 on the road. A former Yankees, Eovaldi did throw eight scoreless innings last month in Fenway. But given his 3.49 FIP, I don't see that happening again. The Yankees are averaging 5.6 run per game here in the Bronx, making them one of the highest scoring teams at home in all of MLB (right behind the Red Sox). 

On the mound, the Yankees will turn to J.A. Happ. He's actually been very effective since coming over at the trade deadline. He's posted a 2.70 ERA as a Yankee and was brought over in large part due to his past success pitching against the Red Sox. Over the last 4 seasons, Happ has posted a 1.78 ERA vs. Boston. He did allow five runs (all unearned!) against them back in July, but that was as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. Last time out, Happ tossed six scoreless innings w/ 67 percent of his pitches going for strikes (including 15 of 23 on first pitch). He's 6-0 as a Yankee (7-1 TSR) and has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six outings. Normally, I might be worried about Boston's 34-9 record in day games this year, but the Yankees are 29-19. They're also 15-5 following an off-day. 8* NY Yankees

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This is a huge series at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers lost Sunday night in St. Louis, costing them both a sweep and first place in the NL West. Meanwhile, Colorado was able to AVOID a sweep Sunday afternoon, beating the Giants 3-2. They now lead LA by one-half game in the NL West. Between these two and St. Louis, two of the three will probably make the playoffs. Obviously, one of these two will win the division. The other will likely be left to fend for the 2nd Wild Card, which the Dodgers and Cardinals are in a tie for, currently. I've been pretty steadfast that the Dodgers are going to be the ones taking the division, as run differential clearly indicates they are the better team here. That leads me to taking them tonight (and probably future games in the series as well). 

The Dodgers are tops in the NL in run differential, having outscored their opponents by 146 runs. Last night's loss aside, they have played much better of late. They've gone 15-7 since Aug 24. That includes them taking two of three from the Rockies, in Colorado, earlier this month. Hyun-Jin Ryu did not pitch in that series, but he will get the starting nod for tonight's opener. Since rejoining the rotation last month, Ryu has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all six starts (2.67 ERA). Most of them have come here at home where the Dodgers figure to have a clear edge. Not only do they allow just 3.8 rpg here at Chavez Ravine, the Rockies' offense predictably declines when taken out of the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Over the weekend, Colorado managed just three runs (all of them being scored yday) in three games in San Francisco. That was a Giants team that came in having lost 11 in a row. 

For the Rockies, starter Jon Gray has been quite the pleasant surprise w/ an 11-2 TSR dating back to June 22nd. But one of those losses came to the Dodgers (earlier this month). Gray has lasted just four innings each of his L2 starts and allowed three home runs. He's actually allowed a HR in nine consecutive outings, including multiple in three of his last four. The Dodgers came into yday having homered in 23 consecutive games, which was the longest active streak in MLB. While LA has the best run differential in the entire National League, Colorado has outscored its opponents by just a single run this year! That means they should feel extremely fortunate to be 15 games over .500. I say that works itself out over the season's final two weeks and the Dodgers end up taking the division. It starts w/ this game. 10* LA Dodgers

6* Run Line St. Louis (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Cardinals at +1.5. This is an incredibly important series for two NL playoff hopefuls. St. Louis was able to avoid what would have been a damaging sweep by beating the Dodgers Sunday night. They are now tied w/ LA for the second Wild Card, which is probably their only realistic point of entry into the postseason. Atlanta looks like a lot safer bet to make the playoffs right now as they lead the Phillies by 6.5 games and should win the NL East. But the Braves did lose both games over the weekend and this projects to be a tough game w/ runs being few and far between. That, and the fact the Cards have some revenge from a sweep two months ago, have me taking the RL in this one. 

The Cardinals really needed last night's game after dropping four in a row, all at home. Speaking of them losing at home, the Braves came to Busch Stadium at the end of June and took all three games, the only series these teams have played in 2018. Every game is going to be important from here on out and fortunately for tonight, St. Louis has Miles Mikolas on the bump. Mikolas has arguably been the team's top starter this season, posting a 2.99 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his 29 starts. The team has gone 21-8 w/ him on the mound w/ only one loss in the L9 starts. Mikolas has a perfect 8-0 TSR on the road as well. By the way, St. Louis has the third best road record in all of baseball at 42-33. When Mikolas faced the Braves earlier in the year, he held them to just one runs in 6 2/3 innings. 

Atlanta counters w/ its own de facto ace, Mike Foltynewicz, who has given up 1 ER or fewer in five of his previous six starts. But surprisingly, the team has only a 13-15 TSR when Foltynewicz is on the hill this season. The Braves are one of two teams w/ a better road record than the Cardinals, but the flip side of that is they are only 38-36 here at SunTrust Park. Foltynewicz pitched well against St. Louis earlier in the year, but has generally struggled when facing them throughout his career. In four career starts vs. the Redbirds, his ERA is 7.13. I can't see the Braves sweeping the Cards again, nor do I see the visitors doing any worse than a one-run loss tonight. 6* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5)

8* Over Dodgers/Cardinals (8:05 ET): The Dodgers are FINALLY starting to live up to their potential. I took them in Thursday's series opener, behind Clayton Kershaw, and they delivered me a 9-7 win. They haven't stopped winning here in St. Louis and now can sweep the four-game series. With Saturday's results, the Dodgers now lead the NL West by one-half game over the Rockies. They're also a full game up on the Cardinals if it comes down to the Wild Card. The Dodgers have the best run differential in the entire National League at +151 following Saturday's 17-4 beatdown of the Cards. That will be difficult to repeat Sunday night on ESPN, but I do expect a lot of runs. Sweeping a four-game series on the road is hard, therefore I'm taking the Over here. 

The Dodgers' offense was on full display day w/ a 17-run effort. Incredibly, it was the third time this season they've scored 17 or more runs in a game! It was the 15th times scoring 10+ runs and 12 of those have come since June. This is a team that has homered in 23 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the majors. It's also one game shy of a franchise record. They now average 5.4 runs per game on the road this season. I envision them having success tonight against Adam Wainwright, who will be making only his second start since returning from elbow inflammation. That basically cost Wainwright five months of the season and he's no longer the pitcher he once was. Last time out, he gave up four runs in five innings. That included multiple home runs. 

Ross Stripling will start here for the Dodgers. He's bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen this year and produced mixed results. Earlier in the week, he made his first start in over a month. He went only 3 1/3 innings, but it was enough to easily defeat the Reds, 8-1. This will be just the third start for Stripling since the beginning of August. He's allowed only two runs back in the role, but note his final two starts before getting sent to the bullpen resulted in nine runs allowed in 8 2/3 innings. Each of his last six starts have come on the road. Given that 9 is a key number in betting MLB totals, I like where the O/U line opened here, especially considering the road team is favored. That means we should hopefully play a full nine innings tonight and that can often be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under. The backend of the Dodgers' bullpen remains shaky w/ the Kenley Jansen situation. 8* Over Dodgers/Cardinals

10* LA Angels (4:05 ET): Any notion the Angels had of catching the Mariners for third place in the AL West has gone out the window this weekend. They've dropped the first three games of this series and are now 8.5 back w/ 13 to play. The reality is third place in the division would have been a pyrrhic victory anyway. But, in my eyes, the Halos are the better team here. They've outscored their opponents by 35 runs this year, playing to the level of a 79-win team (actual record is 73-76). Meanwhile, Seattle has totally overachieved this year (thanks to 36 one-run victories & a 13-1 record in extra innings). Having been outscored by 42 runs on the year, the M's expected win total is 69. Yet somehow they've managed to go 82-66. No team in all of MLB has overachieved more this season, at least according to that particular metric. 

Trying to finish at or above .500 at least gives the Angels something to play for down the stretch. Today, they'll face nemesis Marco Gonzales, who has a 5-0 team start record against them this season. Gonzales is 3-0 w/ a 3.00 ERA in those five starts, but is just 9-9 against everyone else. The team has lost each of his last five starts, a span that goes back to the beginning of August, w/ Gonzales posting a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in the last three. He did pitch okay his last time out, surrendering only one run in five innings, but that was against the lowly Padres. Gonzales' strikeout totals also remain low. Something else to keep in mind is that he has already thrown a career high 150 2/3 innings this year. His previous high was 40 last season. He worked on a pitch count against the Padres and that could again be the case here.

Jaime Barria will start today for LA, hoping to bounce back from a disappointing outing where he allowed four runs in just three innings. He'd come in having allowed 1 or 0 ER in five of his previous six starts, going 4-1 w/ 1.86 ERA, but was facing the same team (Texas) for a second straight outing. Barria has faced the Mariners four times this season and has a 1-3 TSR. But he hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of the four outings. (Admittedly, has gone six innings only one time). Still though, a home team getting swept in a four-game series is pretty rare and I see the Angels being motivated to avoid that embarrassment on Sunday. I don't care what the respective records say, they have been a better team than Seattle this season. 10* LA Angels 

8* Run Line San Francisco (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Giants at +1.5. They didn't even need the RL last night as starter Chris Stratton threw his first career shutout, leading to the team snapping an ugly 11-game losing skid. While their season is basically over at this point, you have to figure that - at least in the short-term - the Giants are due for some more wins. Also, as you may know, I have my doubts about this Rockies team. They have only outscored opponents by three runs all season despite being 81-66. The Giants, until recently, had been a pretty good home team. Their record at AT&T Park after last night's win is 40-33. So I'm going to play Saturday's game the same way I did Friday's. 

Even better than last night is the fact we're getting Madison Bumgarner +1.5 runs. Bumgarner has generally had Colorado's number, posting a 3.14 ERA in 29 career starts against them. But he's 0-1 w/ a 4.00 ERA in three starts this year. The Rockies did hit Bumgarner hard in the previous series between the teams, which they swept, but that was also at Coors Field. Like most of the Giants, Bumgarner has struggled some recently. But he still has a 1.49 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in his eight home starts this year. I'm counting on a vintage Bumgarner performance this evening against a Rockies lineup that had only two hits yday. For the season, the Rockies are batting just .229 away from the confines of their offensive-friendly ballpark.

The Giants managed to win yday despite scoring only two runs. Sadly, they've scored more than three just once in September. They are up against German Marquez tonight and Marquez has been hot recently, posting a 1.69 ERA over an unbeaten six-start stretch. But Marquez has never pitched well here in San Francisco where his ERA is 8.79 in three starts. Regardless of what happens in the daytime, there is going to be a lot of pressure on the Rockies going into this game. If the Dodgers do beat the Cardinals (again) earlier in the day, then the Rockies will enter this game in a first place tie in the National League West. I fully anticipate the Dodgers passing them by the end of the regular season. Look for the Giants to play "spoiler" again on Saturday night. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

8* Run Line San Francisco (10:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play on the Giants where I'm taking the +1.5. The Giants have not won a game in September, going 0 for 11. That's why I'm using the RL here. Why take them at all, you ask? Well, I love the situation. They had an off-day (Thursday) to gather themselves while the Rockies were busy finishing up a series w/ Arizona. The Giants also have revenge here after being swept out in Coors Field earlier in the month. As you know, I have my doubts about this Rockies team. They have only outscored opponents by five runs all season despite being 81-65. The Giants, until recently, had been a pretty good home team. Their record at AT&T Park is still 39-33. 

The Rockies just took three of four from the D'backs in what was a critical series. They now hold a 1.5 game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West (Arizona 4.5 back and fading fast). But the lack of an off-day may very well catch up w/ them this weekend. So too might the pitching of Tyler Anderson. Friday's starter has been horrendous of late, going 0-5 over his L7 starts (1-6 TSR) w/ a 10.13 ERA and 1.909 WHIP. August was very bad for Anderson and September isn't off to a good start w/ him allowing seven runs in eight innings pitched. Overall, he is winless over his last 11 outings. In six career starts vs. the Giants, his ERA is 4.25. When he faced them at home earlier in the month, he allowed just three runs in 5 1/3, but the Rockies still needed to score two runs in the bottom of the eighth to get the win. They won by one run, 9-8, a result that would work just fine for us tonight given how we're playing the matchup. 

Poor Chris Stratton. He has a 2.84 ERA and 0.789 WHIP his L3 starts, but little to show for it. He's gone 1-2, including a one-run loss in his last trip to the mound (4-3 at Milwaukee). Stratton was unfortunate to give up four runs on four hits against the Brew Crew as there were two home runs allowed. But that came on the heels of B2B sharp outings here at home. The Giants' woeful offense is a bit of a concern, but hopefully they can get back on track against the woeful Anderson. Remember they are also getting a 1.5 run cushion to start with here. During the 11-game losing streak, they've lost four times by exactly one run and never by more than three runs. So it's not as if they're getting routinely blown out. Time to end this streak! 8* Run Line San Francisco 

8* Texas (10:10 ET): I'm playing against San Diego here as they've won three straight, which is a streak we don't see very often from them. Sure, there's always been the mentality to "ride the hot team," but that's not the case with this one. This will be the seventh time this year that the Padres come into a game having won three in a row. They've won only one of the previous six times. That lone four-game win streak actually came at the end of August as they beat Colorado and Seattle two times each. Texas is a fellow last place team that also had yday off. Their West Coast trip has not gone well so far and they've lost six of the last seven overall. But I feel they snag the win tonight as I love the idea of playing against the Padres in this situation. 

The Rangers have pulled an overnight pitching change as Conner Sadzeck is set to "open" tonight. Sadzeck isn't expected to go long, however, as Yohander Mendez is scheduled to come in after. We've seen more and more of this throughout baseball this year and it's been effective. It throws the opponent off as basically you to prepare for two starting pitchers. San Diego is hardly the most fearsome offense in baseball. In fact, they are last in batting average, last in OBP, 28th in slugging and 26th in runs. If there's one opponent the Rangers' pitching staff should handle, it's this one. By the way, each of the Padres' wins during this three-game streak came by exactly one run. 

While Texas goes a non-traditional rout w/ its pitching situation tonight, San Diego will sadly allow Robbie Erlin to start again. Erlin just allowed seven runs in his most recent start and has a 10.38 ERA/1.923 WHIP his last three starts. It's been a bad season overall for him as he as a 7.24 ERA/1.561 WHIP in nine starts. He's been much better as a reliever than a starter this year. I think the Rangers' better understanding of their pitching staff gives them a "leg up" tonight and it's also a good idea to fade the Padres when they're on a win streak like this. With Sadzeck "opening" and then Mendez following - along with a "cast of thousands" - (Rangers will likely use a LOT of pitchers here), I give Texas the edge. 8* Texas

10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): The Twins lost last night here in Kansas City, 6-4. They blew an early 2-0 lead w/ the deciding factor being a four-run 6th by the Royals that featured B2B home runs. So the Twins now find themselves in a revenge spot Friday, but not just because of what transpired last night. Starter Jose Berrios also has revenge here as he lost to KC last Saturday. Berrios will again go up against Jorge Lopez and when these two last met, it was a good old fashioned pitcher's duel. When two pitchers are squaring off for a second straight start like this season, I often go w/ the one who lost the first battle. Sure enough, we actually saw that play out last night w/ KC's Heath Fillmyer avenging a defeat from last Friday against the Twins. Same thing tonight, only this time in the Twins' favor. 

Berrios pitched well last Saturday, giving up just one run and three hits in six innings. But it wasn't enough as Lopez was better. Lopez went eight innings and allowed just one run on one hit. In fact, he took a perfect game into the ninth! However, I would not expect anything close to a repeat of that here tonight. Lopez's first three starts this season were all losses and he posted a 7.90 ERA. He's been able to bounce back w/ two strong efforts (also allowed just one run on 9.2 vs. Baltimore). But, keep something in mind. Despite Lopez taking that perfect game into the ninth inning last Saturday, it was only a 1-0 game entering the seventh, which is when KC busted loose. It was the Royals' lone win in that series. They come into tonight having won 3 of 4, but still own the major's second worst record at 50-96 overall. 

The Royals' overall futility allows me to look past the Twins' road woes here. Minnesota is just 24-48 on the road this season and has dropped 29 of their last 39 games as the visitor. But they did beat the Yankees twice earlier this week, albeit at home. Despite an 0-3 record his L3 starts, Berrios hasn't pitched that poorly and he was actually a massive favorite on the money line last Saturday (closed -210). The Royals' win percentage off a win this year is just .333, so couple that w/ the revenge angle and you have a play on the other side. 10* Minnesota

10* LA Dodgers (7:15 ET): Hey. The Dodgers finally beat the Reds yesterday! They were 8-1 winners yday in Cincinnati, thus avoiding what would have been an embarrassing a sweep. They're still 1.5 games back of Colorado in the NL West and two back of St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot. So this is a very important weekend series vs. the Cardinals, rife w/ playoff implications. They'll send ace Clayton Kershaw to the bump for Thursday's opener. I used Kershaw as a big play in his last start, my 10* Game of the Month, as he helped avenge another previous sweep against Colorado. It's the same setup here as the Dodgers were swept the last time they faced the Cards. Behind Kershaw, they exact some revenge yet again in what will be a big win. 

Kershaw is having another strong season. He comes in w/ a 2.42 ER and 0.983 WHIP in 22 starts. The team is surprisingly only 12-10 in those 22 starts, but a perfect 4-0 the last four. He's allowed three runs or more only twice all season. One of those, three of the runs were unearned. The other was back in April. It's eight straight quality starts and counting after allowing just two runs in six innings last time out at Colorado. He's not faced St. Louis this season, but has a 2.99 ERA against them in 16 career starts. We know what we're going to get here and I'm confident the Dodgers' bats will give Kershaw the requisite support. The Dodgers average 5.2 runs per game on the road. 

The Cardinals lost yesterday, here at home, 4-3 to Pittsburgh. That cost them a series sweep and ended a three-game win streak. But keep in mind they'd dropped five of seven prior to that three-game win streak. Austin Gomber gets the start here, just like he did the opener of the previous series between the teams. That first start vs. the Dodgers saw him enter on 15-inning scoreless streak, but he gave up two runs and walked four. The Cards still won 5-3. But they didn't win Gomber's last start, which was at a bad Detroit team. Gomber didn't factor into the decision as the bullpen lost the game in the bottom of the ninth. Previously, St. Louis had won all seven of Gomber's starts. But he's never had to go up against a pitcher the caliber of Kershaw and the Dodgers are still the better overall team in my eyes and the eyes of YTD run differential (+133 vs. +82). 10* LA Dodgers

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): It's a lost season in the City of Angels (at least for the actual Angels), but this team is better than its record. Despite being a game below .500 (72-73), they've actually outscored the opposition by 40 runs over the course of this season. That's a far better run differential than the team just ahead of them in the standings, Seattle, who has actually been outscored by 53 runs (even though they're 14 games above .500). It's probably too late, but it would be poetic if the Angels were able to catch the Mariners. Regardless, you can look for the Halos to beat the floundering Rangers again this evening. They won 1-0 last night and tonight figures to be far more lopsided. While Texas did take Monday's series opener, they've dropped five of six overall. LA has won five of its last six games. 

Following what's starting to be a league wide trend ("invented" by the Rays), the Angels made last night a "bullpen game" w/ their "starter" being a reliever (Jim Johnson) that was expected to go no more than two innings. Tampa Bay has found tremendous success employing this strategy (the Red Sox did it last night w/ Chris Sale as well) and it worked for the Angels as well. Johnson and seven other Angels' pitchers combined to give up only two hits and had a no-no going through seven. Tonight should see a more "traditional" outing from Felix Pena, who has a 2.81 ERA his L5 starts. Pena should have little difficulty w/ a Rangers lineup that is hitting a collective .202 the L7 games. He has gone seven innings in B2B starts while giving up only two runs both times.

While Texas' hitting has been lousy of late, their pitching has been even worse over the balance of the season. Only Baltimore has given up more runs. Things have gotten so dire that they're actually giving Yovani Gallardo another try. Gallardo is making his 15th start since joining the team and while he initially benefited from some tremendous run support, that has gone away recently. He has a 6.23 ERA and 1.649 WHIP on the road this year and his numbers from his L3 starts overall are pretty identical. There was very little offense in last night's game, but - at least for the Angels - that should change tonight. 8* LA Angels

10* Under Pirates/Cardinals (1:15 ET): Pittsburgh arrived in St. Louis Monday riding a five-game win streak. But that came at the expense of a couple of last place teams, Miami & Cincinnati, and all the games took place at home. The Cardinals are a team making a playoff push here in September and they're the ones w/ the win streak now (three straight games) after taking the first two of this three-game set. There's an all-important weekend series looming w/ the Dodgers (here at Busch Stadium) for the Redbirds, which will likely have massive Wild Card implications. As for today's game, I sense a low-scoring affair. The Cards have scored 19 runs the L2 days, but the majority have come late. Ten of those runs have come in the eighth and last night's game was actually 5-1 heading into the eighth. The Pirates have (arguably) their best starter going today and therefore I'm on the Under. 

Jameson Taillon is the starter in question here for the Bucs and he comes in riding a streak of 10 consecutive starts w/o allowing more than 3 ER. Eight of those 10 starts have been quality as he's gone 6-2, including a perfect 3-0 his L3 w/ a 2.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP. Last time out, the only run he allowed came on a solo home run. He's also pitched very well vs. St. Louis in the past w/ 42 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings and a 3.57 ERA. The last time he faced them was in this ballpark and he threw eight shutout innings of three-hit ball. Coming into this series, the Under had been 6-0 in the Bucs' last six road games.

St. Louis is looking to give some of its starting pitchers a rest, so they'll be using a six-man rotation this week. That's why rookie Daniel Poncedeleon will be making only his fourth start of the season here today. The Under is a perfect 3-0 in his previous three as he's posted a solid 2.51 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. His 1st start (back on 7.23) was by far his best as he tossed seven scoreless innings. Since then, he's gone only 7 1/3 innings combined in two starts. He allowed three runs to Cincinnati, in just 3 1/3 innings, in his last start. But that was also the second time the Reds had seen him. St. Louis is allowing only 4.1 rpg at home this season and the Under has gone a remarkable 36-14-2 in the third game of a series this year. The Under is also 9-3 the last 12 home games vs. Pittsburgh. 10* Under Pirates/Cardinals

6* LA Dodgers (12:35 ET): C'MON! The Dodgers, who are the vastly superior team in this matchup, are somehow now 0-6 against the Reds in 2018. Needless to say, this could end up costing them dearly in the playoff race, whether you're talking the NL West or the Wild Card. In each of the last two days here in Cincinnati, Dodger Blue has fallen behind early and been unable to recover. Last night was a 3-1 setback where they managed only five hits for the game. That came on the heels of dropping Monday's opener to Cody Reed, a starter who came in w/ an 0-14 career TSR. I say "enough is enough" and the Dodgers (NL best +126 run differential) HAVE to come through today. The Reds' record this year against everyone other than the Dodgers is 57-83. 

For the sixth consecutive time, Ross Stripling will start on the road for LA. It's also his first time starting in a month. Stripling spent about a month on the DL w/ a back issue. His official return was Friday, in a relief role, where he pitched just one-third of an inning against Colorado (the Dodgers won that game, 4-2). The last time he started also happened to be in Colorado and he allowed just one run in six innings. Stripling did face the Reds earlier in the year and did not factor into the decision. He allowed only two runs over 5 1/3 IP w/ seven strikeouts and zero walks. The Dodgers have won five of Stripling's last six starts overall. 

Cincy will go w/ Anthony DeSclafani for today's series finale. While the Reds have gone 3-0 in his last three starts, it's been no real thanks to DeSclafani. He has a 6.28 ERA and 1.604 WHIP during that time and his L2 starts have spanned just 7 2/3 innings total while giving up six runs. He's been fortunate to get plenty of run support recently and he also faced San Diego his last time out. I fully anticipate the Dodgers' lineup "coming alive" today as not only do they average 5.2 rpg on the road this season, they also average 4.8 rpg in day games. They're 82-49 in all day games the L3 seasons and are outscoring opponents by a full run per game in afternoon affairs in 2018. The Reds are just 25-33 in day games this year. 6* LA Dodgers

6* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners are 35-18 in one-run games and 13-1 in extra innings this season. Their overall record is 79-64. Yet, it's becoming increasingly unlikely that they'll make the playoffs. A -52 YTD run differential further confirms that this club has been more lucky than good this season, but I'll take 'em here in what's basically a "do or die" series w/ the lowly Padres. I've continuously cited the M's run differential as a clear sign that they've been overperforming and feel that I was at the "forefront" of calling for them NOT to get to the postseason. But I'll still gladly take them over a San Diego team that has the most losses in the National League while getting outscored by 139 runs this season.

The Padres split a four-game series in Cincinnati over the weekend. They are actually 7-5 their L12 games, which dates back to taking two from these Mariners in San Diego. The team has gone just 18-37 off a win this year, so fading them in this spot (they won Sunday) seems prudent. I certainly don't have much regard for Tuesday's starter Bryan Mitchell, who has a 6.00 ERA and 1.833 WHIP his L3 starts. Somehow the team has won two of those three starts even w/ Mitchell posting more walks than strikeouts. San Diego has been one of the poorest performers in Interleague Play over the years and that includes a 4-11 mark in 2018. 

Seattle's Marco Gonzalez has been admittedly awful himself of late. But, unlike Mitchell, he can at least claim a satisfactory body of work over the course of a season. The team has a 15-10 record in his 25 starts. It'll be good for Gonzalez to not have to face an opponent from within the division here. He's gone against three straight AL West foes, which may explain the struggles as those opponents are now familiar with him at this juncture of the season. San Diego is not. The Padres are an absolutely atrocious 4-24 their L28 Interleague road games when facing a left-handed starter. 6* Seattle

8* LA Dodgers (6:40 ET): The Dodgers can be pretty frustrating. Last night was a perfect illustration. After taking two of three in Colorado over the weekend (pulling within one-half game of the NL West lead), they went out and lost in Cincinnati. The Dodgers are now 0-5 vs. the 62-83 Reds this season. That can't happen. Revenge for the prior sweep and the fact the Dodgers still have the best run differential in the National League (+128) have me on them again Tuesday, hopefully this time w/ a better outcome. A four-run 1st inning (by the Reds) is what doomed them last night and ended up being the difference in the game. 

I was really disappointed by the first inning and overall effort from Alex Wood last night. He allowed seven runs total, which matched a season-high. Hyun-Jin Ryu starts tonight for LA and obviously I'll expect him to pitch better than Wood did. Ryu did give up five runs in his last start, but four were unearned. He still sports a 2.62 ERA and 1.046 WHIP in his 11 starts this year. Interesting is that this will be the 1st time Ryu is starting a road game since returning from the DL. His last road start was May 2nd at Arizona. He has an offense that should support him, however. The Dodgers average 5.2 rpg on the road. 

The Dodgers "can't" keep on losing to the last place Reds. The most embarrassing part of last night's 10-6 setback was that it came against Cody Reed, whose career team start record had previously been 0-14. Reds' pitching is not good. They have allowed - by far - the most runs in the entire National League. Luis Castillo gets the nod Tuesday, coming off a start where he surrendered three home runs, to San Diego. That was here at home. He now has a 4.79 ERA for the year. While they only have two games left vs. the Reds in 2018 (tonight & tomorrow), I am confident that the Dodgers will be able to show that they are the vastly superior club here. I'll continue riding them. 8* LA Dodgers

8* LA Dodgers (6:40 ET): I'm sticking w/ the Dodgers here (taking them a fourth straight day) as they continue their charge to the top of the NL West. By taking two of three in Colorado over the weekend, LA pulled within one-half game of the division lead. Speaking to this club's likely ascendance is the fact they continue to have the NL's best run differential (now +132). The team they are chasing (Colorado) has a -11 run differential for the year. Now the Dodgers are in Cincinnati to exact some revenge against a Reds team that actually swept them in a four-game set (at Chavez Ravine!) back in May. You know what they say about payback. 

The Reds could only manage a split of a four-game series w/ San Diego here at home over the weekend. Overall, they've now dropped 13 of their last 18 games. Needless to say, this will be a big step up in class after facing lowly San Diego. Cody Reed will get the start Monday and the Reds have yet to win w/ him on the mound. He has an 0-3 team start record, having posted a 7.10 ERA and 1.736 WHIP. Reed's most recent start saw him give up six runs. But what's truly remarkable about Reed is his long-term team start record. Going back to his initial call-up in 2016, the Reds have NEVER won w/ Reed on the hill, going 0-14 all-time! 

Now we'll see if Dave Roberts' decision to shake up his rotation pays off. Sunday saw Rich Hill get the nod. It was initially supposed to be Alex Wood, but the Dodgers skipper pulled the old "switcheroo" citing Wood's track record here at Great American Ballpark. Hill took care of business Sunday afternoon. Now it's Wood's turn to make his manager look good. Wood has looked good himself of late, posting a 1.86 ERA his L7 starts. He's allowed just one run in his L12 innings of work. As I said before, the idea behind Roberts flip-flopping Hill & Wood in the rotation is that Wood has always pitched well in this park. He has a 1.32 career ERA here in Cincy. The Dodgers are the superior team here. 8* LA Dodgers

10* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): After pulling within a half-game of the Rockies on Friday, the Dodgers lost last night here in Colorado, 4-2. A ninth inning rally fell short when Yasmani Grandal struck out to end the ninth. As I've written each of the last two days, the Dodgers are - pretty clearly - the better of these two teams.  Just to refresh, the Dodgers have outscored their opponents by a NL-best 129 runs this season. Meanwhile, Colorado has been outscored in 2018. The Dodgers came into this series w/ revenge after being swept here at Coors Field last month. An offense that we know can score (5.2 rpg on the road) should perform better than three runs or less in seven of the last nine games, given the ballpark they are playing in today. I'm sticking w/ the road team Sunday. 

Rich Hill starts today for the Dodgers. His last three starts have all come at home and he got a lot of run support in two of them. Last time out, he allowed four runs in five innings, but it hardly mattered w/ the Dodgers putting 11 runs of their own on the board. Hill has never beaten the Rockies, but neither has Alex Wood, who was originally going to start Sunday. What Hill has done, however, is post a 23-2 KW rate his L3 starts. He did pitch relatively well here at Coors last month, giving up just three runs (on four hits) over six innings. One of the runs was unearned. Unfortunately, the Dodgers went down 4-3 that day. But they are still 6-3 in Wood's L9 starts overall. The team is also a perfect 4-0 off its previous four losses. 

Someone else who has not experienced a lot of success here at Coors Field is Rockies' starter Tyler Anderson. Quite frankly, Anderson hasn't experienced much success anywhere over past few months. The team actually did win his last outing, 9-8 over the Giants, but had been 0-7 his previous seven w/ Anderson posting an ugly 8.31 ERA. The last time Anderson actually won a decision was the 4th of July. It's been 10 starts w/o one. The Dodgers have won 22 of their last 29 games facing a southpaw starters and I've again got to point out that Colorado has been outscored at home this season. I am steadfast that the Dodgers are going to win the NL West and to do so, they probably need to win this game. 10* LA Dodgers 

10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): The Dodgers came out and made a statement win last night, beating the Rockies 4-2 behind six strong innings from Clayton Kershaw. That result pulls them within one-half game of the Rockies for the NL West lead. But, make no mistake about it, the Dodgers are clearly the better team. I made that point abundantly clear in yday's analysis when I made LA my 10* Game of the Month. Just to refresh, the Dodgers have outscored their opponents by a NL-best 131 runs this season. Meanwhile, Colorado has been outscored by 10 runs in 2018. The Dodgers came into this series w/ revenge after being swept here at Coors Field last month. An offense that we know can score (5.2 rpg on the road) should have no problems doing so this weekend. 

The Dodgers were able to lean on Kershaw last night. Tonight, it's Walker Buehler getting the start. While far less heralded, Buehler has pitched very well this season. In fact, his ERA (2.52) and WHIP (0.974) are comparable to Kershaw! Bueheler threw seven shutout innings here at Coors last month, only for the Dodgers to still lose 3-2. Here's his chance at revenge as he'll be up against the same pitcher he faced on August 11th, that being Kyle Freeland. Note Buehler was in position to win that game as he exited w/ a 2-0 lead. (Bullpen blew the game). Freeland allowed two runs and six hits in that game. He now has a 3.90 ERA in six career starts vs. the Dodgers.

While the bullpen might still be an issue for LA this weekend (closer Kenley Jansen is out), Kenta Maeda showed he's able to step into the closer's role as he got the the final two outs last night. The Dodgers did use six pitchers on Friday, but Colorado used seven as starter Jon Gray was ineffective. Freeland has actually pitched remarkably well here at Coors this season and has a 19-9 TSR overall. However, I keep coming back to the fact that the Dodgers are simply the much better team here. Run differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record, in my opinion. That firm belief leaves no doubt in my mind as to who is going to win this division. 10* LA Dodgers

10* LA Dodgers (8:40 ET): It's a huge weekend series in the NL West with the Rockies hosting the Dodgers. Colorado might have a 1.5 game edge in the standings, but there is zero doubt here (in my mind) that LA is the vastly superior team. Something that my regular clients know is that I am a huge proponent of run differential being a better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. Here, that metric speaks volumes. The Dodgers have a NL-best +129 run differential. The Rockies, despite being 15 games over .500, have actually been OUTSCORED by eight runs over the course of this season. Oddsmakers aren't fooled by the respective records here, nor am I. With their ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound for Friday's opener, bet big on Los Angeles.

Colorado does come into the weekend on a five-game win streak. They just swept the Giants here at Coors Field and this is their third straight series taking on a division opponent (played in San Diego before hosting SF). Despite the perception of a massive homefield advantage, the Rockies have actually not performed all that well in Coors Field this season. They've been outscored and their record is just 37-30. (Keep in mind that includes three straight wins). They turn to Jon Gray tonight and while he has an 8-1 TSR since returning from Triple-A Albuquerque, I don't believe he'll be able to match Kershaw tonight. Consider that in his last two starts, Gray has a total of just two strikeouts. Against the Dodgers on August 10th, he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings, one of his weaker outings since rejoining the rotation. Something else to note is that Gray has allowed a HR in seven straight starts, including multiple in his last two. 

Kershaw is a pitcher who hopefully needs no introduction. He actually also allowed two HR's in his last start, but both were solo shots and the Dodgers still were able to win the game. Something else Kershaw has in common w/ Gray is that he too is unbeaten over his L7 starts. Only Kershaw's numbers, including 1.99 ERA and 0.785 WHIP, are much better. I realize the Dodgers will be w/o closer Kenley Jansen this weekend, but having Kershaw on the mound mitigates the need for the bullpen. He's gone at least seven innings his L4 trips to the mound. The Dodgers also come into this series w/ revenge as they were swept here last month. At Coors Field, offense shouldn't be a problem for a team already averaging 5.2 rpg on the road. That's more than the Rockies average here. 10* LA Dodgers 

8* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): Perhaps taking an advantage of an off-day, San Diego came in and was able to defeat Cincinnati on Thursday, 6-2. To clarify, the Padres had Wednesday off while the Reds were wrapping up their series w/ Pittsburgh. Maybe that was the reason the visitors were able to get out to a quick start last night as it was 5-0 by the fourth inning in a battle of starters named Castillo. Whatever the reason, the Reds have now dropped four in a row at home (were swept by the Pirates). In those four games, they have scored just eight runs. I'll call for them to snap out of the slump tonight though as they face Brett Kennedy, whose two road starts thus far have gone badly. The Reds are a better team than the Padres and should bounce back tonight.

The truth is that the Reds were doomed early on this season when they started out by losing 18 of their first 21 games. That got manager Bryan Price fired, but ever since the club has been a lot more respectable. They're 56-64 overall and that's including the current losing streak. Take out starts made by Homer Bailey (1-19 TSR!) and the team is even closer to .500. Starting tonight will be Anthony DeSclafani. He hasn't exactly been dominant of late, but he's also had to face the top three teams from the NL Central (Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals) his L3 starts. The Reds have won two of those games. DeSclafani has arguably been the Reds' best pitcher in 2018 and has posted a 2.75 ERA his L36 innings of work. He's made two career starts vs. the Padres and his ERA is 0.64.

You'd expect Cincinnati to score more given some of the hitters in the lineup. Eight regulars are hitting .275 or better. Leadoff man Scooter Gennett is #1 in the NL in batting average (.320) and its notable he was given Thursday off. He'll be back in the lineup tonight and has gone 12 for 26 at the plate his L6 games. Eugenio Suarez is top five in the NL in both home runs and RBI's. Then you have Joey Votto, a perennial MVP candidate. With Padres starter Kennedy having posted a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in two road starts thus far, I expect the Reds to break out of this mini-slump tonight. Meanwhile, San Diego averages only 3.7 rpg themselves on the road. They're also just 18-36 off a win. Thus, the idea of fading them in the situation is really attractive. 8* Cincinnati

10* Over Braves/D'backs (9:40 ET): It's been a string of Unders for Arizona lately as their last 11 games have all ended that way. That's quite the streak, the length of which is pretty rare. It doesn't even include the fact that a series w/ Atlanta back in July saw all three games stay Under. These two playoff hopefuls rematch this weekend in the desert and for Thursday's series opener, I'm going to call for a higher scoring game than expected. Because Zack Grienke is pitching here for the D'backs, we're able to take advantage of a low number. Both he and Braves' starter Sanchez have each seen their last three starts all stay Under the total. In fact, Greinke is working on a streak of five straight Unders. Despite all you've just read though, the "law of averages" state that it's time for an Over. 

Greinke is obviously a stud. I mentioned earlier that his L5 starts have all gone Under. But, in three of them, he has allowed three or more runs. That may not sound like much, but w/ a low O/U line, it can be enough. A big problem for Arizona lately, however, has been the offense. Or rather lack of it. Prior to Tuesday's 6-0 win (Wednesday was an off-day), they had scored three runs or fewer in consecutive games. That's pretty hard to do. I just have to believe this team has some big offensive nights in them moving forward. 

Atlanta lost Wednesday afternoon, at home, 9-8 to the Red Sox. Thus, they ended up being swept in the series. In two of the three games, they allowed eight runs. So, as you can see, there is hope for the Arizona offense yet. Like the D'backs, their last game also happened to be the Braves' highest scoring effort in awhile. But Atlanta's offensive numbers are by no means bad and they average a solid 4.6 rpg on the road for the year. Anibal Sanchez is somehow w/o a win his L3 starts despite a 2.55 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. Lack of run support has been an issue w/ the Braves' offense scoring three runs or fewer in all three games. Somehow though, against all odds, I see this one sneaking Over the total. 10* Over Braves/D'backs

8* NY Yankees (10:05 ET): This is certainly an outstanding pitching matchup we're getting tonight and it could very well be repeated if these two teams meet up in the AL Wild Card Game (which seems likely). Luis Severino comes in w/ a 22-6 TSR for the Yankees and has won each of his last three starts. He enters today looking to take over the MLB lead in wins as he's currently tied w/ Cleveland's Corey Kluber and Tampa Bay's Blake Snell. For Oakland, they'll send out Michael Fiers, who (thus far) has proven to be a tremendous acquisition at the trade deadline. Fiers has yet to lose since coming over from Detroit and has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts overall. However, he did look shaky his last time out and that could be problematic when facing a superior side like the Yanks. 

Severino made short work of the A's lineup earlier this year, allowing just one run on five hits in six innings. He finished w/ seven strikeouts and just to illustrate how the perception of the A's has changed in four months, they were HUGE underdogs in that game. Severino and the Yanks actually closed north of -300 on the money line! Now, that game was in the Bronx. With most teams, you'd expect them to perform better offensively at home. But not Oakland. Their runs per game average drops way down from 5.5 on the road (tied for 1st) to 4.1 at home. Severino has never lost to the A's in three career starts and is coming off a 10-strikeout effort in his last start. It's rare you can get him at this price.

As for Fiers, he's off his roughest outing in an Oakland uniform to date. He gave up three home runs - and five runs total - in just 3 2/3 innings vs. Seattle last week. Now the A's still were able to win that game, 7-5. But Fiers won't be able to get away w/ that statline against the Yankees, who already come in averaging 5.2 rpg. Fiers has not really pitched well in the past vs. NY w/ a 5.54 ERA in five starts. As a member of the Tigers, he faced them once earlier in the year (back in April) and it did not go well w/ Fiers allowing six runs. The Yankees are a solid road team (39-28 record) and should take this all-important "rubber match" Wednesday night. 8* NY Yankees

6* LA Dodgers (7:35 ET): The Dodgers still trail the Rockies (by one-half game) in the NL West entering Wednesday. They kept pace last night w/ a convincing 11-4 win over New York as Colorado also won (6-2 over the Giants), which was a game that I had. Arizona is lurking not far behind, just 1.5 games out. Moving forward, I fully anticipate LA taking control of this division as they have had the best run differential in the National League for most of this season (currently +133). We don't think of the Mets (-55 run diff) as a good team (nor should we!), yet the Rockies' YTD run differential (-10) is actually closer to the Mets than it is the Dodgers. This early Wednesday night start time at Chavez Ravine only speeds up the inevitable for the Mets tonight, the "inevitable" being a Dodgers win. 

This early start time could have an effect on the hitters as there will be shadows in the ballpark as the sun is setting. Runs already figured to be at a premium due to the pitching matchup, but I believe LA is likely to score more. They broke out for 11 runs last night, nearly equaling the number of times they had scored from the previous five games combined. Note that the Dodgers did have to rally back from an early 4-0 deficit and scored six times in the bottom of the seventh. Facing Zack Wheeler here will be a lot tougher than Jason Vargas was last night, but note Wheeler is 0-2 lifetime vs. the Dodgers w/ an ugly 11.00 ERA. One of those starts came earlier this year as Wheeler gave up four runs. Overall, Wheeler has struggled against the entire NL West as his TSR is 4-11 the L15 tries. 

The Dodgers are very good at run suppression here at home as they give up only 3.7 rpg. That's the third lowest total for any home team and tops in the NL. Hyun-Jin Ryu should continue the trend as he comes in sporting a 1.77 ERA and 0.869 WHIP at Dodger Stadium. Since coming off the DL last month, Ryu has posted a 2.42 ERA over 22 2/3 innings of work. He outdueled Zack Greinke here in his last start, allowing just two runs in seven innings. Ryu has also never lost to the Mets in five career starts, going 3-0 w/ a 1.69 ERA. This particular Mets team is 24th in runs scored and just 3-6 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. 6* LA Dodgers

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies are now in first place in the National League West thanks to the events of yday. They won while the Dodgers lost. Arizona also lost and they're now 1.5 games back (Dodgers one-half game out). Colorado being in first place is somewhat improbable when you consider they have been outscored this season (-14 run differential) while the run differentials of the Dodgers and D'backs are +126 and +79 respectively. Eventually, I do believe Colorado will fade. Just not tonight when they have German Marquez on the mound. Marquez has been simply phenomenal of late, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.591 WHIP his L3 starts. Go back and look at his last seven starts and Marquez has been just as dominant w/ a 2.17 ERA and 0.825 WHIP.

Over that seven start stretch, Marquez has 61 K's in 49 2/3 IP and only 10 walks. He's allowed just 31 runs, three homers and opponents are batting .177 against him w/ a .514 OPS. Last time out, he struck out 13 in a dominant performance against San Diego. Sadly though, the Rockies still lost the game, 3-2 Despite having one of the better Augusts of any starter in MLB, Marquez's team start record for the month was just 3-3, which is surprising. It's odd to see Marquez not really sharing in his club's overall good fortunate, but that still has time to change. By the way, the Giants come in having scored three runs or fewer in six of the last eight games. Their team batting average is below .200 during this stretch. Thus, it had to be really frustrating to put eight runs on the board yday and still come out on the losing end. I seriously doubt they'll get that many again here against Marquez. 

Coors Field can obviously aid a struggling offense, but that works both ways. The Rockies average 5.1 rpg here at home and are batting .280. The Giants, not a good offensive team to begin with, average just 3.5 rpg on the road. Their road record is lousy (29-41) and they've now dropped their L4 games in Denver dating back to a sweep that took place back in early July. Starting tonight for San Francisco will be Dereck Rodriguez, who has generally been solid this year. But he's never had to pitch in this environment before and that could mean trouble. The Rockies are 55-37 in night games this year and should roll to another victory Tuesday. 8* Colorado

8* Chi White Sox (8:40 ET): This is another matchup on the Tuesday card where we're seeing the line get bet up due to the starting pitcher. (Note: I'm playing two of them, this one and another, myself). In this instance, we have Lucas Giolito, who has started to come into his own of late. He hasn't been as dominant as rotation mate Carlos Rodon mind you, but he's at least starting to follow suit. The White Sox took yday's series opener from Detroit, 4-2, a game that featured only 10 total hits from the two teams. Giolito should do his part in ensuring this is potentially another low-scoring game as he checks in w/ a 2.33 ERA and 0.76 WHIP his L3 starts. Neither of these teams are good, but the Tigers are just brutal on the road (21-49), so give me Giolito & the Sox at home. 

Chicago is now ahead of Detroit in the AL Central standings, which may not be saying much, but at least it's something. This division is just BRUTAL w/ three teams (also the Royals) that seem destined for 95+ losses. The White Sox are now a game up after yday's win and perhaps finishing in third place is something that will motivate them moving forward. They had been 0-6 at home vs. the Tigers this season before Monday's win. They've now beaten the Tigers four straight times after dropping 10 of the first 13 matchups. Overall, the White Sox have not been bad of late, winning 8 of their last 11. That includes splitting a series w/ the mighty Red Sox over the weekend. Detroit is heading in an entirely different direction right now as they've dropped 8 of 10. 

Giolito has held opponents to a .181 batting average his L3 starts. He matched a season-high w/ 8 K's his last time out, however, the team still lost 9-4 to the Red Sox. But, don't blame Giolito, who held the top scoring team in baseball to just one run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings. It was his fourth straight quality start and fifth in the last six overall. He's beaten the Tigers twice during that span. Opposing Giolito tonight will be Francisco Liriano, who has been just the opposite of late. Liriano has a 9.53 ERA and 2.295 WHIP his L3 starts having surrendered a total of 17 runs in 11 1/3 IP. Five of those runs allowed were unearned, but still he's been pretty bad almost all season. The Tigers are just 7-14 in Liriano starts, including 4-10 on the road. He has an ERA above 5.00 and a WHIP above 1.50 for the year. The White Sox are actually 19-12 their L31 games and this seems like a pretty safe bet Tuesday. 8* Chi White Sox 

8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Reds +1.5. They lost again yday to the Pirates, 5-1. I use the word "again" because they were swept by the Bucs - at home - back in late July. At the time, Pittsburgh was in the midst of a rather random 11-game win streak. Take that away and the season has been decidedly subpar as the Bucs' record otherwise is just 56-71. The Reds had their own key streak this season, only it came early and was not good. They opened 2018 by losing 18 of their first 21 games, which got Bryan Price fired. Since then, they've been close to a .500 team, going 56-61 overall. Take out the starts made by Homer Bailey (1-18 TSR!) this season and the Reds' record is 58-61. So they're a lot closer to a .500 proposition than you might think. That and the revenge angle have me going +1.5 on this one. 

Now, the Reds have dropped 9 of 12 and ran into a hot pitcher yday in the form of Trevor Williams. Williams improved to 6-2 in his L9 starts for the Bucs and has posted a miniscule 0.66 ERA during that stretch. Tonight, they obviously won't have to worry about Williams. Instead, they face Joe Musgrove. He's given up nine runs in his last two starts, which have spanned just 10 innings total. He also allowed two home runs in both starts. Overall, the team has dropped five of Musgrove's previous six starts, getting shut out THREE times in the process. Williams being on the mound was the big reason I laid off this matchup on Monday. Without him on the hill though, the Pirates are simply not a team to be feared. Since the All-Star Break they are just 13-20 in games NOT started by Williams. 

Given the number of times they've been shutout w/ Musgrove starting, you can tell offense (rather, lack of it) has been an issue for Pittsburgh. Over the L7 games, they've averaged only 2.3 runs per while batting a collective .212. Before yday afternoon, they had not topped four runs in any game since 8.25. So, you can see where the +1.5 could possibly come in handy here and it certainly benefits a starter like Cody Reed, who will get the baseball for just a third time this season for the Reds. Reed was working on a limited pitching count his last time out when he gave up just one run and four hits. There will be no such limitation tonight. By the way, while the Reds are 0-2 in Reed's two starts this year, both losses were by one run. 8* Run Line Cincinnati +1.5

10* NY Mets (8:10 ET): The Dodgers are now back atop the NL West after taking three of four from Arizona over the weekend. All three wins came by the same final score (3-2) and required rallies in the team's final at-bat. LA has the best run differential in the National League (+128) and I thought it was only a matter of time before they reclaimed 1st place in this division. However, getting Mets' starter Jacob deGrom at this price is simply too good to pass up. I've been through this before, but evaluating deGrom simply by his record would be foolish. While only 8-8 in his 27 starts this year (11-16 TSR), deGrom gets my vote for best pitcher in the entire National League. His current ERA (1.68) would be the third lowest that the Senior Circuit has seen since 1968!

DeGrom also has delivered 24 consecutive starts of allowing 3 ER or less. That ties Dwight Gooden for the franchise record. DeGrom has also made 19 straight quality starts, meaning he's gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less. In August, deGrom was just plain ridiculous as he allowed just nine runs total in six starts, which spanned 43 2/3 innings. He had 60 strikeouts. His last two starts have come against Madison Bumgarner (Giants) and Cole Hamels (Cubs) and have seen him get virtually no support. The Mets scored just one time in both games and lost each time. But, they do enter this series off B2B wins over the Giants, having allowed only one run in both games. 

DeGrom will face Alex Wood tonight. Wood has battled through injuries here in 2018 and has posted some solid numbers. He has a 3.42 ERA in 14 starts, but that's simply not as good as deGrom. Wood did throw seven shutout innings in his last start, at Texas, but that was also the longest he'd gone in any start since the end of June. The Dodgers, shockingly, are only 38-34 at home this season. That includes a 5-10 record when the O/U line is 7 or less. That record is a reflection of an inability to beat the top pitchers here at Chavez Ravine. It doesn't get any better than deGrom this year and I think the Mets pull the "upset." 10* NY Mets

6* Cleveland (4:10 ET): Kansas City did something over the weekend that they'd only previously done one other time this season. That's sweep a series of three games or more. Now, the victim was Baltimore, who happens to be the only team in all of baseball w/ a worse record than the Royals. The series was also in KC. Overall, the Royals have won five straight and seven of eight dating back to a series w/ the Indians last month. But the entirety of that win streak came at home. On the road, the Royals are a disgraceful 20-46, including 5-20 when priced at +175 or higher. The last time they swept a series, they'd go onto drop 14 of the next 19 games. Despite losing two of three to Tampa Bay here at home over the weekend, this spot sets up well for Cleveland. 

The Tribe are in a bit of a unique position as they'll almost certainly be the first team to clinch a playoff spot. This is owed to the fact that the division they play in (AL Central) is easily the worst in all of baseball. They've got a 14-game lead entering Monday and have certainly feasted on the rest of the Central, going 40-20 for the season. They're 8-4 vs. the Royals. Adam Plutko will get the starting nod this afternoon and while he's 0-3 w/ a 5.27 ERA his L6 appearances (four starts), I look for a strong performance. The Kansas City offense has scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball while also ranking 25th and 26th respectively in OBP and slugging. The Royals have not faced Plutko this year and he has a 0.978 WHIP in five home starts.

Kansas City has basically been terrible in all situations this year, including a 17-33 mark in day games. Cleveland is 32-19 in day games. The Indians are the second highest scoring home team in all of baseball this year (trail only Boston), averaging 5.5 rpg here at Progressive Field. So they should take advantage of Royals starter Jake Junis, whose two starts this year vs. Cleveland have both been bad. The last one was a complete disaster as, back on July 2nd, Junis allowed nine runs in just 5 1/3 innings. Earlier in the year, he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. I simply don't see the Royals continuing to win. Their five-game win streak came against Detroit and Baltimore, two of the very worst teams in all of baseball. 6* Cleveland

8* Run Line Miami (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Marlins +1.5. Philadelphia was dealt a cold dose of reality over the weekend as they dropped two of three to the Cubs. Yesterday's loss was the more significant one as they went down 8-1, which was Aaron Nola's first loss of the season at Citizens Bank Park. It was a disappointing homestand overallgfor the Phils, who went just 2-4 so far against the Cubs & Nats. That leaves them 3.5 games back of the Wild Card and 4 back of the Braves in the NL East. The team probably still feels fairly confident heading into this series against last place Miami, but the bottom line is Philly isn't that good on the road (29-38 overall) and has actually now been outscored by nine runs over the course of the season. Miami has revenge as well. Take the +1.5. 

The Marlins have dropped five of their last six as the end to this miserable season probably can't come soon enough. That one win came Saturday vs. Toronto. Despite the Fish's current standing, there is at least a cursory attempt to sound motivated. "We are going to be playing teams that are contending for the postseason," said Marlins infielder Martin Prado. "I hope we start a winning streak." Jose Urena will be the starter today and while his won-loss record is not good (4-12 in 26 starts, 7-19 TSR), he's pitched better than his record, especially of late. He's got an 0.867 WHIP his L3 starts, which includes a complete game masterpiece at Washington where he allowed just one run on two hits. While Miami was swept up in Philly last month, they had gone 5-4 against them previously this season. 

The Phils' road woes figure to catch up w/ them here and the fact of the matter is this probably is not a playoff team. Having a run differential of -9 for the year certainly isn't indicative of being postseason-worthy, not when some of your competition has run differentials of +103 (Braves) or +128 (Dodgers). There are actually SEVEN teams in the NL alone that have better YTD run differentials than the Phillies. Vince Velasquez toes the rubber this afternoon for them and he has not been particularly effective of late. It's been four straight outings where he hasn't gotten out of the fifth inning and as a result he's got a WHIP that isn't looking very good. He was able to shutout Miami for 6+ innings last month, but that was at home. On the road, Velasquez's team start record is only 4-8. I believe the Marlins won't do any worse than a one-run loss today. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

6* Houston (8:05 ET): The Angels came into this series w/ revenge on their minds and even exacted some as they took the first two games, including a win over Justin Verlander. But the Astros were able to bounce back last night w/ a 7-3 win and can now earn themselves a series split with another victory Sunday night. They'll have Gerritt Cole on the mound and that gives them a great chance. While Houston hasn't been nearly as dominant as they ought to be this season, they've still outscored the opposition by 219 runs, which is neck and neck w/ Boston for tops in all of MLB. They should have more wins and they'll get one here. 

Cole has pitched well this year, especially at home where he has a 2.90 ERA and 0.932 WHIP. The Angels have failed to top three runs in seven of their past nine games, so this should be a relatively easy assignment. Cole did serve up two home runs his last time out, but still won easily, 11-4. He was much stronger in his previous home start as he went six innings and finished w/ 12 strikeouts. Cole hasn't beaten the Angels this year in two tries, but the third will be the charm. 

Oh, by the way, Shohei Ohtani is returning to the mound tonight for the Halos. That should be a bigger deal, but the reality is the team is out of contention. This is a tough first start back after not being in the role for three months. Ohtani has been used as a DH (two-way player!) and has gotten bullpen sessions in. But keep in mind that the Astros were able to rough him up back in April when he was a regular part of the rotation. The Angels have struggled against the top teams all season (22-42 vs. opponents w/ a winning record) and they are just 6-14 when priced above +125 on the road. 6* Houston

8* Run Line Cincinnati (2:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Reds +1.5. Cincy knocked St. Louis off yday, 4-0, temporarily putting a halt to the Cardinals' recent winning ways. The Redbirds come into Sunday still having won 10 consecutive series, a pretty remarkable achievement when you think about it. They are also out in front in the NL Wild Card race. Cincinnati was pretty much the first team eliminated from playoff contention in 2018, thanks to a 3-18 start to the season. But they've basically been a .500 team ever since and if you take out the starts made by Homer Bailey, they're also basically a .500 team. I don't think they'll do any worse than a one-run loss here on Sunday. 

The Reds won last night on the back of starter Luis Castillo, who combined w/ two relievers to throw a two-hit shutout. I'm not sure it would be right to expect the same this afternoon from Anthony DeSclafani, but he had a pretty effective August. Three of DeSclafani's five starts last month saw him go at least seven innings while allowing one run or less. The team won all of them and is actually 5-1 his L6 starts. He has given up 4 ER in B2B outings, but I'd look for him to be better today. He is 5-2 all-time vs. the Cards w/ a 3.30 ERA. 

Another reason to like Cincy here is the recent string of performances from St. Louis' starter Luke Weaver. He's posted a 1.783 WHIP, which is very high, over his L3 outings. He's been used sparingly as a starter of late (moved to the bullpen) due to general ineffectiveness. On the road this year, he has a 5.11 ERA and is just 1-5 in 11 starts. His bullpen performances have been better, but I don't expect him to last long today even though he's never lost to the Reds. His 3-0 career record against Cincy is misleading as Weaver's ERA is 5.16. I look for the road team to surprise in this one. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Philadelphia (1:35 ET): The Phillies and Cubs have split the first two games of the series w/ the rubber match taking place early this afternoon at Citizens' Bank Park. If you recall, I had the Phillies as my *10* Game of the Week back in Friday's opener. They won 2-1. A lack of offense caught up w/ them yday, however, as they went down 7-1. Looking at the pitching matchup for Sunday (Lester vs. Nola), runs figure to be at a premium yet again. But I'm back to the Phils as they have Aaron Nola, who has yet to taste defeat at home all season! This is an absolutely critical game for them as they've fallen behind in the races for both the NL East and Wild Card. 

Technically, Nola has tasted defeat once here at home. It was his last start as the Phillies fell 5-4 to the Nationals in excruciating fashion. But Nola didn't factor into the decision as the loss was clearly the bullpen's fault. Nola threw seven strong innings, giving up just two runs on four hits. The end result dropped his team start record to 12-1 at Citizens' Bank Park this season. Personally, he's 9-0 w/ a 1.94 ERA and 0.977 WHIP. Overall, it has been a great season for Nola (2.10 ERA, 0.966 WHIP) and he's been even sharper of late (0.82, 0.727). He was moved up a day in the rotation here because of the importance of this game. The Phillies have not won a series in four weeks and clearly the move to turn to Nola reflects they are treating today of the utmost importance. 

The Cubs counter with Jon Lester. He's had the Phillies' number throughout his career, but keep in mind that those were also some bad Phillies teams he'd been facing. He has not faced them in 2018. Like Nola, Lester has been very good of late as the Cubs have won each of his last three starts. But this just might be his toughest assignment of the season. Nola doesn't lose at home and it seems as if the Phillies are all in at home. Remember that Philly is a strong home team overall (43-25) and that includes a 21-7 run vs. lefties. 8* Philadelphia

8* Boston (7:10 ET): This is probably as cheap a price as we could ever hope to get on the Red Sox when playing the White Sox. Some of that is they lost last night here at Guaranteed Rate Field, 6-1. Another component is they'll have to face Carlos Rodon, a starter that is having a strong year on a bad team. The White Sox have a 5-0 TSR in Rodon's last five starts, including a win as +215 ML underdogs against the Yankees his last time out. Going back even further, Rodon is unbeaten over his L9 starts (5-0) w/ a 1.84 ERA. But Boston has its own starter with a solid resume, that being Eduardo Rodriguez, heading to the mound. Prior to going on the DL, Rodriguez hadn't allowed a single run in three starts! My call is that Boston bounces back tonight. 

Rodriguez will have to "shake off the rust" as he hasn't pitched since before the All-Star Break. Those last three starts, which came against Toronto, Texas and Washington, saw him pitch 17 scoreless innings and give up just 10 hits. He reportedly looked sharp in a rehab start down in the minors. Helping ease his return back into the rotation will be a Boston offense that continues to pace the league in scoring (5.5 rpg). The Red Sox have surprisingly struggled to hit White Sox pitching the first two games of this series. All nine of their runs Thursday came in two innings (five in the ninth). Other than that, they've scored just one time in the other 16 innings. I look for that to change here, however. 

Beating the Yankees and Red Sox in consecutive starts would be an impressive feat for Rodon, but I don't see it happening. The team is still only 19-41 this season taking on an opponent w/ a winning record. Note that there was a long rain delay in yday's game. Rodon has never beaten Boston in three career tries, posting a 3.38 ERA. Earlier this year, he took a loss after allowing four runs in five innings to them. Bottom line is Boston is still 50 games above .500 and tied for the best run differential in all of MLB (+215). Chicago is 27 games under .500 w/ a -135 run differential. Only four teams have worse records and only three have been outscored by a larger margin this season. All things considered, this is a great price on the favorite. 8* Boston

8* Texas (8:05 ET): At first glance, it doesn't seem like there's any reason to play this matchup of also-rans. But the Rangers have the advantage of being off yday while the Twins were in Cleveland. Furthermore, Minnesota has been a very bad road team all season and this is a great price to fade them. Last night's 5-3 loss dropped them to 23-42 away from home this year. There are only three teams in the American League w/ a worse win percentage on the road. Texas' home record isn't that great due to all the runs they give up, but I believe they can take advantage of Stephen Gonsalves, whose two starts for the Twins thus far have not gone "according to plan." In what could be a high-scoring game, look for the Rangers to outscore the Twins tonight. 

The Rangers enter this game on a four-game losing streak, all against the NL West. They just got swept in a short-two game series by the Dodgers, but let's face it, they were outclassed there. They're hitting just .196 over the last week, but the matchup w/ the struggling Gonsalves should set them straight. For the year, Texas averages 5.4 runs per game at home. That's the fourth highest average in baseball. Their record is a reflection of how poor the pitching has been and I concede that tonight's starter - Drew Hutchinson - hardly inspires a ton of confidence. Hutchinson allowed six runs his last time out, the second time he's done that in his four starts. But he was okay in the other two. Minnesota's lineup is not to be feared either as they've totaled just 13 runs in the last six games. 

I've alluded to it multiple times already, but Gonsalves' two starts so far have been BRUTAL. He has an 11.37 ERA and 3.002 WHIP. I'm not sure I've ever seen a WHIP that high. In 6 1/3 IP, he's allowed eight runs and 19 baserunners. The day off is a nice edge for the home team here and before you question the price, note the Rangers are 9-4 this season when priced between -125 and -175 at home. (They're 42-24 in that range the L3 seasons). In the only other prior series between these teams in 2018, the Rangers took two of three, totaling 17 runs in the two wins. 8* Texas

8* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): Both teams lost yesterday. The Pirates, whose offense is really scuffling of late, were shutout by the Cardinals. The Braves fell 5-4 to the Cubs in a make-up game. While I was tempted to use the run line here (Bucs need all the help they can get offensively), the price had me reconsider. This is a revenge spot for them after being swept at home earlier this month. While they had no answer for Atlanta's pitching in that series (scored only two runs in three games!), I think they'll perform much better at the plate this time around. Plus they have Jameson Taillon on the mound and he's someone the Braves did not have to deal with in the previous series. Look for the Pirates to "steal one" at SunTrust Park Friday night. 

Bookending the All-Star Break, the Pirates went on an 11-game win streak. Other than that, they've been decidedly subpar this season (15 games below .500). But they have won four of the past five times Taillon has starterd, including 9-1 over Milwaukee in his last outing. There, Taillon allowed just one run on five hits over six innings. It was his second straight start doing that. But the difference between Milwaukee and when he faced the Cubs on 8.19 is that he had no walks. Going back to July, Taillon has allowed 3 ER or less in nine consecutive starts. In his last 16 starts overall, his ERA is 2.95. He's also been strong on the road, going 6-2 w/ a 2.44 ERA his L9 times starting outside of PNC Park.

In the last series between these teams, it's not like Atlanta's offense performed all that well either. They scored just nine runs in three games and two of the wins were of the one-run variety. After yday's loss, they've now dropped six of seven here at home. Anibal Sanchez will get the start here and while he's pitched well at times, I wouldn't exactly call him reliable. The team has lost the last two times he has started, including as a big ML favorite at Miami his last time out. Like Taillon, he did not pitch in the last series between the teams. I thought last night was a pretty crushing loss for the Braves (I was on 'em) as they rallied back from an early 3-0 deficit to take the lead 4-3, only to give it back on a pinch-hit HR. The Pirates have the edge in starting pitching tonight, plus there's the revenge factor. That has me on them. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): This is a great spot to play the Phillies. They're at home and had Thursday off. The Cubs are in their third town in three days as last night saw them have to play a make-up game in Atlanta. They won (5-4), mind you, but might all the travel be about to catch up w/ them? I think so? The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games, but they've been beating up on bad teams, save for last night. Meanwhile, Philly desperately needs this game and series. They just dropped two of three here at home to Washington to start the week and now trail the Braves by three games in the NL East. They're also three back in the Wild Card chase. This is a good home team (42-24 record) and I see them taking advantage of the tough spot the Cubs find themselves in tonight.

It's been a tough stretch for the Phillies, who are 8-14 their L22 games and have not won any of their previous seven series. This downward trajectory couldn't come at a worse time and the fact of the matter is that they've only outscored the opposition by three runs over the course of the season. So they don't really profile as a playoff team, at least when measured against some of the other contenders. But, again, they are in a good situation going into Friday. They did win Wednesday and probably should have Tuesday (gave up 4 runs in the top of the ninth). They are 10-7 this season following an off-day. Perhaps more important is the fact they are 20-7 their L27 games vs. left-handed starters and tonight find themselves up against the struggling Jose Quintana. 

Quintana has only managed to last five innings each of his last three starts. His struggles go back even further though as he's posted a 5.30 ERA and 1.42 WHIP since the All-Star Break. He also has a 5.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three career starts vs. the Phillies. The Cubs have dropped five of Quintana's last seven road starts and the team is also 2-7 the L9 times it has faced an opponent w/ a home win percentage of .600 or higher. Nick Pivetta is the starter for Philadelphia and while he too has struggled of late (allowed 11 runs in L2 starts), he's pitched better than his record, at least at home where his WHIP is 1.184. The Cubs have played a lot of baseball the L2 days (also had to make up a suspended game Weds) and it catches up w/ them here. 10* Philadelphia

8* Over Red Sox/White Sox (8:05 ET): Boston will bring its league-leading offense (5.4 rpg) to the Windy City and should have little problem feasting on a White Sox pitching staff that is permitting 5.2 rpg, 27th in MLB. Surprisingly, the past six meetings between these teams (three this season, three last) have all stayed Under. But all of those games took place in Fenway Park. Guaranteed Rate Field has one of the highest Over percetages in all of baseball this year (tied for 5th) and should certainly see plenty of fireworks tonight considering the Red Sox totaled 22 runs in just the last two games. The White Sox just completed a series w/ the Yankees where all three games went Under, but again, that was on the road. The Over had been 10-3-1 in their 14 games prior to facing the Yanks. Take the Over here. 

Lucas Giolito has pitched surprisingly well his last three starts for Chicago. He's won all three and has a 3.32 ERA/1.053 WHIP. But I used the term "surprisingly" because, boy, has he NOT pitched well at home this season. His ERA and WHIP here are 8.18 and 1.715, so it's no shock that the Over is 8-4. It should be pointed out that each of Giolito's last three starts came on the road. His last home start saw him surrender seven runs in just five innings to a Yankees team whose offense is roughly on par w/ that of the Red Sox (but not quite as strong). With the exception of a start on 6.15 vs. sorry Kansas City, Giolito has struggled in virtually every home start this season. Another issue for him has been control. Though his walk rate is down significantly over the L5 starts, he's still issued 75 free passes this season, most in the entire American League. 

Boston should have no problem scoring in this one. They put up 14 runs last night in what was actually a come from behind win over Miami. But they've also been giving up an average of roughly 6.0 rpg over the last week. Rick Porcello starts tonight's game and he's struggled a bit lately, posting a 5.72 ERA since July 13th. In 24 career starts vs. the White Sox, his ERA is just 4.30. That includes a loss to them earlier this season when he allowed three runs in six innings. Boston very likely wins this game (they are 14-2 priced -175 or higher on the road while Chicago is 0-7 priced +175 or higher at home), but it will take a lot of scoring to do so. Forcing the White Sox to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth would be nice as sometimes it's those final three outs that prove to be the difference in a game staying Under or going Over. 8* Over Red Sox/White Sox

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Braves will once again be welcoming in a red hot team here, albeit for just a game. Earlier in the week it was the Rays, who arrived at SunTrust Park on an eight-game win streak. Atlanta ended that streak w/ a 9-5 win Tuesday. Now the Cubs come to town for a makeup game. They too had a chance to enter Thursday on their own eight-game win streak, but lost yday to the Mets 10-3. Yesterday was a bit of a unique circumstance for Chicago as they first had to finish a game that was postponed Tuesday night. They won that one, 2-1 in 11 innings (game "started" in the 10th), before getting clobbered in the full game. So that nullifies any disadvantage the Braves may have been at from a long rain delay they had to sit through last night (lost 8-5 to the Rays). I took Atlanta back on Tuesday when they snapped the Rays' 8-game win streak and will do the same here as I like the pitching matchup - a lot - from their perspective.

The Braves will be sending out Mike Foltynewicz tonight. Even though the team has dropped two of his last three starts, Foltynewicz has a 0.86 ERA and 0.762 WHIP during that time. He's allowed just two runs in 21 innings and has 22 strikeouts. Admittedly, he was fortunate to face Miami in two of those three starts. But all season long, Foltynewicz has delivered. He has a 2.62 ERA and 1.083 WHIP here at home where the Braves have gone 35-28 overall. Earlier in the year, he held the Cubs to just one (unearned) run in five innings and had 10 strikeouts. Atlanta lost that game, 3-2, but I believe the final result will be a lot different this time around. 

The Cubs counter w/ Mike Montogomery, who is making his return to the rotation after being sidelined w/ shoulder inflammation. This will be his first time starting in over two weeks. While Montgomery has some pretty decent numbers and has gone at least five innings in all of his previous 13 starts, a 1.715 WHIP over his L3 outings sticks out "like a sore thumb" to me. He's actually been quite fortune not to have given up more runs in those starts as he actually allowed 19 hits in 10 1/3 IP against San Diego and St. Louis. He bounced back w/ six shutout innings in his last start, but note that was against an awful Royals team. The Braves have taken five of their last six series openers and Foltynewicz has a 5-1 TSR the L6 times he's worked on at least five days rest. 10* Atlanta

10* Over Dodgers/Rangers (8:05 ET): The Dodgers figured to score plenty of runs in this quick two-game IL series. The Rangers' pitching staff is terrible and LA came in already averaging 5.2 rpg on the road. Not that they really need the additional help, but the Dodgers also get to use a DH here in Arlington w/ the games being played under American League rules. They'll of course take the advantage though. Sure enough, they scored eight runs in a pretty easy win here Tuesday night. Texas gives up more runs per game at home than any other team in baseball. They allow 6.0 rpg here for the season. That's over a half run per game more than Colorado allows at Coors Field. I see no reason why not to expect another high scoring affair Wednesday. Take the Over. 

The Rangers starter for tonight will be Mike Minor. He comes in with a 3-0 record his L3 starts and a 0.696 WHIP. Last time out, he threw six shutout innings of one-hit ball, beating Oakland. That performance came on the heels of him missing a scheduled start due to back stiffness. Back on 8.10, he did allow four runs in just 5 2/3 innings. While he'll be working on six days' rest here, that's nothing compared to the 18 days he had between his last two starts. He only threw 73 pitches vs. Oakland, likely due to lingering concerns over his back. I'm not convinced that Minor is 100% healthy going into tonight's game. Another thing is that he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters. The Texas bullpen is very bad and has a 5.38 ERA here at home. That figures to be a factor tonight. 

Los Angeles has its own bullpen issues right now. They gave up two runs in the bottom of the ninth last night, which ultimately did not matter. But it's definitely something worth keeping an eye on. Unless they're down, which would be somewhat of a surprise, they're going to have to pitch in the bottom of the ninth again tonight. That can often be the difference between a game going Over or staying Under (as we saw last night). Starter Alex Wood has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts and lasted just four innings his last time out. He gave up three runs. He too will be working on extended rest here as that last start was back on 8.20 vs. St. Louis. Rangers' home games are typically high scoring (they average 11.5 rpg) and this one will be no different. 10* Over Dodgers/Rangers 

6* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros delivered a "statement win" on Monday, beating the A's 11-4 in the opener of a critical three-game set. This will be the last series of the year between the two top teams in the AL West and I do believe the home team has been priced correctly. While they are only up 2.5 games in the standings, Houston is vastly superior when it comes to run differential (+222 vs. +85). The Astros' run differential is the best in all of baseball right now and while their 81-50 record is impressive in its own right, they've actually played to the level of a 91-win team! Oakland certainly looks like a team that's going to at least get the Wild Card, but they've slightly overachieved thanks to the best win percentage in one-run games (26-10) in all of MLB. 

Last night marked the Astros' sixth win in a row. They swept the Angels over the weekend as well. Not coincidentally, this six-game win streak began when Jose Altuve, Jr returned to the lineup. Right now, this club is as healthy as its been in a long time. Last night was the first time in nearly two months that they had George Springer, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Altuve all at the top of the batting order in the same game. I expect a strong finish to the regular season from this group. Led by Bregman, who homered and had 4 RBI's, the 'Stros scored 11 runs last night in a very impressive effort. As far as pitching goes, there's no real concern either as the Houston staff has allowed the fewest number of runs in all of baseball. 

Charlie Morton will start for the Astros Tuesday, looking to bounce back from a season-worst performance LW at Seattle. Although the team still won (10-7), Morton allowed six runs, which was just the fourth time all year he allowed more than four in a start. He owns a 13-3 record, including 8-2 at home. He has a 2.89 ERA in two starts vs. Oakland this year as well. Morton will be opposed here by Edwin Jackson, who has been a surprise in the A's rotation, posting solid numbers in 11 starts (8-3 TSR). Earlier this month, he did face Houston and was okay, though he did allow two home runs (did not factor into the decision). He went against Morton, who also didn't factor into the decision, despite also allowing just two runs in five innings. Houston is healthier this time around and primed to pull away in the AL West. 6* Houston

6* Run Line NY Mets (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Mets at +1.5. The Mets seemed well on their way to an upset last night as they handed starter Noah Syndergaard an early 3-1 lead. I had 'em +1.5, so I was feeling pretty good at that point. Even after Syndergaard gave back the lead and the Mets were down 4-3, things were okay because of the run line. But enter the bullpen, which let us down by giving up three more runs to cost us a winning ticket. As much as I liked the idea of Syndergaard +1.5, I really like the idea of Jacob deGrom +1.5, so I will go back to the well tonight hoping the Mets can exact some revenge on a Cubs team that swept them at Citi Field back in early June. Play the run line (+1.5). 

What a pitching matchup we have Tuesday w/ deGrom vs. Cole Hamels. It's a matchup I'd definitely stay away from as far as a traditional money line bet goes, but give me deGrom and an additional 1.5 runs to work with and I'm in. The fact is that deGrom doesn't give up many runs. Despite an 8-8 record (11-15 TSR), deGrom has the lowest ERA (1.71) in all of baseball. Only four of his 26 starts haven't been quality ones, meaning he almost always goes at least six innings while allowing three runs or less. He hasn't had a non-quality start since mid-May. So that's 18 straight quality starts the Mets have gotten from him. He's had nine or more strikeouts in all five August starts, including a CG shutout at Philadelphia 10 days ago. Last time out, he was a hard-luck loser as he gave up two runs (one unearned) in a 3-1 defeat to Madison Bumgarner and the Giants. 

Hamels was having a season similar to deGrom (in terms of wins and losses), but then was fortunate enough to be traded to the Cubs and has completely turned it around. He's gone 4-0 w/ a 0.79 ERA in five starts for his new team and has allowed 1 or 0 ER in all five. Two of those five wins came by one run, however. While the Cubs are obviously a much better team than the Mets, deGrom is the better of the two starting pitchers here. Is that enough to overcome the overall discrepancy between the two ballclubs? Maybe. But I certainly think with the added insurance that the RL provides, deGrom is more than "worth a shot" Tuesday night. It's not often we get to play a pitcher of this caliber this way. 6* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Tampa Bay has won eight in a row. Four of those wins came against lowly Kansas City. But the other four were against Boston, including a three-game sweep over the weekend, which should probably be recognized as the Rays' most impressive performance of the season. But the commonality of the eight straight wins is that all but one of them occurred at home. At Tropicana Field, this team is an outstanding 41-24. But they're just 29-37 on the road. They hit the road, starting Tuesday, for what will be a quick two-game set in Atlanta. The Braves are returning home after a successful 5-2 road trip that has them firmly in first place in the NL East. I believe that behind Julio Teheran, they're the team to put an end to this Rays' win streak.

Tonight's game sets up as a good old fashioned pitcher's duel. Neither team has been giving up many runs lately. Over it's eight-game win streak, Tampa Bay has allowed just 12 runs total, an average of 1.5 rpg. They just held Boston, the highest scoring team in the entire league, to five runs in three games. But, again, you have to consider the home vs. road splits here. TB is #1 in MLB, allowing just 3.2 rpg at home for the season. But on the road, they're allowing 4.6 rpg. Offensively, they figure to struggle in this series w/ the loss of the DH and tonight they have to face Teheran, who has posted a 1.80 ERA and 0.60 WHIP his L3 starts. Teheran has allowed just four runs and seven hits during the time, in 20 innings of work. Atlanta has been even stingier than TB of late as they allowed LESS than one run per game on their road trip, holding opponents to a .150 average! 

The Rays will turn to Ryne Stanek tonight. This will be his 45th appearance and 22nd "start." I have start in quotation marks because he's actually referred to as an "opener." When he does start the game, he's never asked to go more than two innings. When using him in this role, the Rays have gone just 9-12. In looking at this matchup, I have to come back to the Rays' road woes, plus the fact they're just 6-12 in Interleague Play this season. I believe the Braves will be able to get to Stanek and whomever else pitches here for the Rays. The Braves already took two down in Tampa Bay (back in May) w/ Teheran starting one of the games and throwing six shutout innnings. More of the same tonight. 10* Atlanta 

8* Run Line NY Mets (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Mets +1.5. Few will want to touch the Metropolitans here as they are coming off (yet another) humiliating loss, this one 15-0 to the Nationals. But note that was a 1-0 game after seven innings. What happened to the bullpen over the final two frames was a full on meltdown. What's truly odd is that said meltdown occurred after the Mets had held the Nats scoreless for 23 consecutive innings! That's right, they actually won the first two games of the series, both in shutout fashion. With Noah Syndergaard on the bump tonight, I absolutely feel they can win here. I'll say they do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

The Cubs comes into this series hot, having just swept the Reds over the weekend. They've won five in a row overall, including a shutout of their own Sunday (9-0). But interesting is that in the five games previous to this current win streak, the Cubs offense scored exactly just one run every time. Obviously, if the Mets are able to hold the Cubs to one run or fewer tonight, it's a guaranteed win. Syndergaard is more than capable of doing so, having allowed 3 ER or fewer in 15 of his 18 starts this season. As bad as the Mets are, it's rare to find Syndergaard priced quite like this. It will be just the third time all season that he's likely to close +125 or higher on the moneyline. After missing nearly two months w/ a finger injury, Syndergaard has won three of his past four starts. He has a 2.00 ERA in three career starts vs. Chicago. 

The Mets have revenge coming into this series as they were swept by the Cubs, at home, back in early June. Jon Lester, who starts tonight for the Cubs, shut them out in the finale of that four-game series while giving up just two hits over seven innings. While Lester comes into this meeting off B2B quality starts, it wasn't that long ago that he was really struggling. Over his L7 starts, he still sports an ERA of 7.08 and a WHIP of 1.747. Syndergaard gives the Mets a fighting chance any time he's on the hill and I'll gladly take him w/ an additional 1.5 runs in our "back pocket." 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

10* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Orioles +1.5. Well, here we go again. Baltimore burned me last week when they were swept up in Toronto. Perhaps I should have known better. The O's are most definitely a "bad" team as they headed into Sunday night's contest w/ the Yankees on a seven-game losing streak. Three of those losses were to the Blue Jays. Incredibly, they've now lost 10 straight games to the Jays, all in Toronto. They've been swept three straight times. They burned me in the sense that I thought it was damn near impossible to be swept by the same opponent three straight times, so I kept taking them (on the run line). Incredibly, the O's couldn't even come within one run of the Jays in any game in that last series! But here at home, they can and will. Call me insane, but I'll say Baltimore does no worse than a one-run loss here. 

David Hess pitched one of the three games last week for Baltimore against Toronto. He certainly did his job, going seven innings and allowing just one run on three hits. That one run was the product of a solo HR. Hess left the game having struck out seven and walked none. The score was 1-0 at the time of his departure. Incredibly, Baltimore ended up losing the game 6-0 (Toronto scored five times in the bottom of the eighth). How cruel is that? Hess has proven to me that he can silence the Blue Jays' bats. He's now allowed 3 ER or less in each of his L3 starts (2.89 ERA, 1.018 WHIP). Sadly, the Orioles have lost all three of those games. But the other two were both by one run.

Toronto will send out Sam Gaviglio Monday night. Like Hess, he pitched in last week's series. Gaviglio turned in one of his better efforts in some time, going seven innings and holding Baltimore to just two runs on six hits. But that was at home. On the road, he has an 8.36 ERA and 1.752 WHIP. Before picking up the win last week, Gaviglio's last victory came all the way back on May 25th! The team is just 2-7 in his nine road starts. Toronto is just 26-37 on the road this season, getting outscored by nearly a full run per game. After having their five-game win streak snapped Sunday (by Philadelphia), the Jays are primed to be upset. 10* Run Line Baltimore

10* Under Yankees/Orioles (8:05 ET): Oddsmakers are expecting the Yankees to make "quick work" of the Orioles tonight. Honestly, why wouldn't they? New York has easily taken the first three games of this four-game series, including sweeping a doubleheader yday w/ the two wins coming by scores of 10-3 and 5-1. Baltimore has now dropped seven straight as they continue to descend into an almost uncharted sea of futility. The O's are now 56 games below .500 and 52.5 games out of first place in the AL East. The money line is obviously too rich for my blood, so the total is the only way to play this Sunday night matchup on ESPN. Normally, I might consider a home team (even at +1.5) looking to avoid a four-gam sweep, but I just can't see Baltimore doing much against Yanks starter Luis Severino. So I'll go Under on this one, hoping Dylan Bundy can also keep the Yankee bats in relative check. 

Severino has a 20-6 team start record for the year, but lately he's not been the same pitcher he was prior to the All-Star Break. He's gone just 2-4 his L7 starts w/ a 7.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. But last time out, he was a big favorite (same as he is here) and looked dominant. He held Toronto to just two runs in five innings and finished w/ eight strikeouts. He's 4-1 all-time vs. the Orioles, posting a 3.33 ERA. This particular version of the Orioles lineup is probably the weakest he's ever faced as they are averaging just 2.1 rpg during the active losing streak while batting a collective .193. There's been just one game during that stretch where they topped three runs. 

Bundy has gone through his own rough patch lately, giving up 22 runs on 29 hits his L3 starts. He's also winless since 7.29. The home run ball has been a real issue for the righty as he's served up a total of 15 his last eight starts, six of those coming in the last three. That's a real concern considering the Yankees hit five HR's yday off Orioles' pitching. But Aaron Judge remains out of the Yankee lineup and I don't think Bundy can continue being that bad for an extended period of time. The Under is 36-24-4 here at Camden Yards this season. Yankees' scoring also drops to 4.8 rpg on the road. 10* Under Yankees/Orioles

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): The Giants have pretty much fallen out of contention in the NL playoff chase, even for a Wild Card, but that didn't stop them from beating the Rangers yday by a score of 5-3. Technically, they are only eight games back of the WC, but at three games below .500 and needing to jump a ton of teams, it's simply not a realistic goal at this point. To further drive home the point, catcher Buster Posey opted for surgery and is done for 2018. I'm not sure it mattered, but the Giants will likely "rue" Friday's loss to the Rangers where they blew a six-run lead and lost in extra innings. To me, San Francisco is definitely the better team here and I think they'll win the series Sunday. 

Texas has never been in contention here in '18 and has been in last place in the AL West basically the entire way. It's been a struggle offensively recently, including B2B shutouts by Oakland in the last series. Theoretically, the Rangers lineup is even weaker here w/ the loss of the DH from the lineup. Giants starter Derek Holland should be able to take advantage as the veteran has allowed just one run total in his last two starts and has a 2.81 ERA his last three. Giants' starting pitching has not been an issue at all in this series w/ Andrew Suarez tossing seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball yday and Dereck Rodriguez allowed just two runs on three hits (over six innings) on Friday. I anticipate Holland performing just as well this afternoon. 

Texas will send Yovani Gallardo to the mound Sunday. His 9-2 team start record is a total mirage as he's been fortunate to benefit from MLB's highest run support average. But after scoring 11 or more runs five times in his first nine starts, the Rangers offense has scored just four times each of the last two. Gallardo's ERA in those 11 starts is 5.10 and goes even higher on the road. This will be his first time starting on the road in August and just his second road start since the All-Star Break. The Giants have performed quite well in day games this season, going 26-18 and should take full advantage of a team that has allowed the third most runs in all of MLB this season. 8* San Francisco