6* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): The D'backs and Pirates wrap up a three-game set here at PNC Park Thursday afternoon and I can't see this one going any differently from the first two, which were both won by the home team.  After destroying Arizona 12-1 on Tuesday, it was closer affair last night, but still a win (5-4) for Pittsburgh nonetheless.  The Bucs, who have won 8 of their last 10 overall, are simply the better team here. They are 26-19 w/ a +20 run differential compared to 21-27 w/ a -16 run diff for Arizona.  It's been nine wins in 11 tries for Pittsburgh over the L2 seasons vs. Arizona and they have a clear pitching edge this afternoon.

Gerritt Cole comes in having gone 3-0 w/ a 1.29 ERA his L3 starts overall.  The Pirates ace had an interesting outing his last time out, as he allowed 10 hits over 7 IP and didn't strike anybody out, but allowed just one run (on a solo HR). Stll, 72 of his 109 pitches went for strikes.  That followed eight shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Cubs at Wrigley Field on May 15th.  So, after a bit of a rocky start to the season, clearly Cole seems to have regained LY's form and he has a 3.10 ERA in four career starts vs. the D'backs. As for the strikeouts, we've seen w/ the White Sox Chris Sale this year, that they sometimes can be an overrated statistic. 

The Pirates have outhit the D'backs 27-15 in the two games en route to outscoring them 17-5.  While he's been worse at home compared to on the road, Arizona starter Pat Corbin can't be too happy about facing Pittsburgh yet again. Last month, he gave up four runs in 6 IP as he took an 8-2 loss at Chase Field. The team has won just four of Corbin's nine starts here and overlooked is that the Pirates are among MLB's best offenses right now as they rank 4th in runs scored, 2nd in team batting average and 2nd in OBP.  More often than not, "Getaway Day" favors the home team and that should certainly be the case here today. 6* Pittsburgh

8* Seattle (10:10 ET):  The Mariners pulled the proverbial "rabbit out of the hat" last night, coming back from a 5-2 deficit to win in walk-off fashion.  They scored two runs in both the eighth and ninth innings and now find themselves in an excellent position to take this series from division rival Oakland, who has really been struggling of late. Yes, I did take the A's in Monday's series opener (they won 5-0!), but that is their only win over the last six games and the trend that had seen the road team go 7-0 in A's/M's game this year finally came to an end last night as it was "due" to do.  Though no one is really talking about them much, Seattle has been a really good team this year (+44 run diff is #4 in all of MLB). Go w/ them here.

Hisashi Iwakuma is by no means having a great year for the Mariners. But he dominated this A's lineup when he faced them in Oakland on May 3rd.  There he allowed only one run on four hits over seven innings of work.  That's been par for the course as in his L3 starts vs. Oakland, Iwakuma is 2-0 w/ a 1.33 ERA.  It's not like the A's lineup comes into tonight in "peak form" either as over the last seven days they are batting a collective .220.  They've gone six straight games w/o scoring more than five runs.  Iwakuma is off a quality start, by the way, as he allowed just three runs and six hits over 6 IP at Cincinnati (Seattle won 8-3). 

For Oakland, the rotation now has a major hole in it w/ Sonny Gray going to the disabled list. Granted, Gray wasn't pitching well, but I'm not sure fill-in Zach Neal can be counted upon here as he allowed three runs in his big league debut May 11th as a reliever.  Behind Neal is a pretty terrible bullpen, one that has a 4.06 ERA and has allowed at least one run in four of its past six games.   8* Seattle

10* Milwaukee (7:10 ET):  Very little was expected from either of these two clubs in 2016 and in that regard, neither has "disappointed."  But while the Brew Crew may not be the most tantalizing "take" on the board on a nightly basis, the Braves have been a special kind of brutal this season, particularly at Turner Field where they've gone a mind-numbing 2-18 to this point.  That includes a 2-1 loss here in yday's series opener, a game which featured very little hitting.  Thus, with neither lineup in "peak form," this one likely comes down to the starting pitching matchup and in that regard, it's a big edge for the Brewers w/ Junior Guerra on the mound.  It's nice to not have to lay a lot of juice against the hapless Braves.

His last time out, Guerra beat the Cubs as he posted a season-high in strikeouts (11).  That came on the heels of another dominant performance, this one vs. San Diego, where he threw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball.  The team is now 4-0 in his four starts this season. Facing the Braves, who have scored the fewest runs in all of baseball to this point, should not be a problem. Atlanta's 138 runs scored this season are at least 20 fewer than every other team, but one (Phillies).  They are actually averaging fewer than 3.0 rpg here at home.

Now Milwaukee might need to do a little bit more at the plate themselves after totaling just two runs on five hits last night.  Fortunately, there's a good chance that Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz will comply.  Not only did Foltynewicz (say that three times fast!) allow five runs in just three innings in his last start, but that was the second time he's allowed at least four while not making out of the fourth innings in three overall tries.  Note that the Braves have not won a single series at home all year. They are also 8-23 off a loss.    10* Milwaukee

8* Chi Cubs (1:45 ET):  The Cubs ended their longest losing streak of the season (three games) yday, in emphatic fashion, via a 12-3 win here in St. Louis.  Of course, even if they had lost, there's a very good chance that said losing streak would have ended here at four games because it's once again time for Jake Arrieta to toe the rubber.  Obviously though, you like to see the club coming into this afternoon's series finale in top form as it was basically "over from the start" on Tuesday w/ the Cubs scoring six runs in the top of the 1st and never looking back after that.  Similar routs have been routine w/ Arrieta pitching this year as the team has outscored opponents by a stunning 72-14 margin in his nine starts, which accounts for basically half of their MLB-best +118 run differential. I expect nothing less than a stellar outing from Arrieta here (why wouldn't I?) and another dominant Cubs victory. 

St. Louis is actually top five in the league in run differential, but that number took a big hit w/ yday's loss. It figures to take another hit today w/ Carlos Martinez on the bump. When pitching opposite Arrieta, the margin for error is obviously so slim, but lately Martinez has not demonstrated that he would even be up to the challenge here.  Over his last three starts, Martinez has a 6.08 ERA and 1.80 WHIP and those kind of numbers basically guarantee defeat going against Arrieta.  Worse yet, he hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any of those last three starts. The team has lost each of the last four times he's taken the mound w/ him giving up more runs in that time frame that Arrieta has all year. 

It's been a very long time since we've seen a pitcher perform as well as Arrieta has over such a sustained period. The Cubs have won his last 22 regular season starts w/ Arrieta going 19-0 w/ a 0.86 ERA.  This year, he is 8-0 in his nine starts, producing a 1.29 ERA and 0.841 WHIP.  Four different times, he hasn't allowed a single run, including his no-hitter back on April 21st.  He's gone 29 consecutive starts w/o allowing more than 3 ER!  At this price, Arrieta is simply too good to pass up. 8* Chi Cubs

6* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET):  Yes, Chris Sale is pitching and that means a high price on the White Sox, but it's totally justifiable here considering his perfect 9-0 record, 1.58 ERA and 0.717 WHIP.  I played Sale his last time out as well and he responded by going the distance again (third time this season), allowing only one run on four hits against Houston.  It was the second consecutive start he turned in a complete game w/o walking a single batter (15-0 KW ratio). Tonight, he'll be opposed by another unbeaten pitcher - Josh Tomlin - but his ERA over his L3 starts (4.05) indicates a bit of a decline, plus unlike Sale, Tomlin has not actually won every start (6-0 in seven outings). I'm siding with the better pitcher at home here.

These teams played a doubleheader yesterday and ended up splitting the games while Chicago winning Game 1 and Cleveland taking Game 2.  The Indians can no longer catch the White Sox for first place in the division by series' end (2.5 games back) and weren't likely to anyway as they knew they'd be facing Sale on Tuesday.  They did score three times against Sale here at US Cellular Field back on April 9th, but since that time Sale hasn't allowed more than 2 ER in any start and has given up one or zero six times. He has a WHIP of 0.56 his L3 starts due to only putting on 14 baserunners in 26 IP.  

Tomlin has benefited greatly from run support his last five outings and while the Indians have averaged nearly seven full runs per game over their last nine contests, they'll be lucky if they even get to half of that average here tonight. Consider that three times this year Tomlin has allowed at least four runs, meaning in three starts he's allowed nearly as many runs as Sale has given up all season!  Betting against Sale right now is simply a foolish proposition.  6* Chi White Sox

    

8* Run Line Toronto (7:05 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5.  Thanks to a five-game win streak, the Yankees have moved up to third place in the American League East after spending most of the season in last.  The basement in the division is now occupied by Toronto, who has lost six of its last nine. But they still have a better YTD run differential than New York and took two of three from their pinstriped rivals earlier in the season. The Jays also have a better record on the road than at home this year. I see them doing no worse than a one run loss here.

Tonight's starting pitchers have very similar numbers over their last three starts. Toronto's RA Dickey has a 2.57 ERA and 0.952 WHIP.  The Yankees' Nathan Eovaldi is at 2.84 and 0.895.  But there is one major difference between the two during that time and that's the respective records as Dickey is 1-2 and Eovaldi is 3-0.  Granted, Dickey's good numbers are largely based on one outstanding outing when he went eight innings against Texas and didn't give up any runs (only three hits). But in the other two, he was hurt by three unearned runs and a lack of run support (Toronto scored only five times).  I expect the knuckleballer to perform well tonight considering he has a 1.80 ERA his last eight starts against the Yankees.

While New York just pulled off a four-game sweep in Oakland over the weekend, Toronto took three of four in Minnesota, including a win Sunday. That was a much needed bounce back for the Jays after they got swept at home by Tampa Bay.  As I mentioned earlier, they have a better record on the road (13-11) than at home (9-13) and they also have slightly outscored opponents this year (+2) while the Yankees still have a run differential of -19.  A 4-10 record in one-run games has really hurt the Jays this season, but taking the RL eliminates that issue altogether. I'm still surprised to see how Toronto's offense - which lapped the rest of MLB in 2015 - has struggled this year. But the Yankees have actually been much worse at the plate, ranking 25th in runs scored and the potential return of A-Rod is not going to cure that.  8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5)

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET):  For Seattle-Oakland, there was a 6-0 trend in favor of the road team.  Over here in the NL, there's a much different 6-0 trend in play for San Diego-San Francisco. The Giants are 6-0 vs. their division rival this year and I don't see them losing for a first time tonight as Johnny Cueto will be on the hill and the team is red hot overall (10-1 L11). Normally, I might cite a team coming off the Sunday night game as being at a disadvantage, but that's clearly been mitigated here as the Padres went 17 innings Sunday (and lost).  Look for this division rivalry to remain one-sided.

Cueto has been outstanding for the Giants so far. He's 6-1 w/ a 2.70 ERA and 1.095 WHIP and has only gotten hotter of late.  This will be his second straight outing against San Diego and last week saw him deliver a complete game at Petco Park while allowing just four hits.  That was his second CG this year against the Padres and the one here at AT&T Park was even more dominant as it was a shutout w/ 11 strikeouts.  Cueto has now gone at least eight innings w/ allowing one or no runs three times in his last five starts overall. He's 6-1 w/ a 1.67 ERA and 54 K's his last seven starts vs. the Padres.

Drew Pomeranz will once again oppose Cueto tonight and I'll concede to you that he's been an unlucky pitcher of late.  In his last four starts, the offense has scored a grand total of four runs for him. Then again, that can't be too surprising considering San Diego is 29th in slugging, 30th in OBP and 30th in team batting average. Still though, it's sad to see a pitcher go only 2-2 over a four-start stretch where his ERA is 1.13. But the real problem for Pomeranz and the Padres in this situation is that the team's bullpen was taxed yday (six relievers used) and Pomeranz has gone seven innings in only one of his eight starts this year.  I just don't see the road team having a lot in the tank tonight and that's a problem against a red hot pitcher and red hot team in general.  8* San Francisco.

9* Oakland (10:10 ET):  Very different weekends for these two AL West teams. Oakland was swept at home by the Yankees, while Seattle swept the Reds in Cincinnati. However, if that and history is any indication, then homefield is no advantage in this series. Six times these teams have met this year. The road team has won every time!  The Mariners have not been a good home team period this year, going 8-10 at Safeco Field while hitting a collective .218. They scored just four runs when they were swept here by the A's back in April.

The pitching edge lies with Oakland for tonight's series opener.  They have Rich Hill going. Since allowing four runs (two unearned) in his first start of 2016, he has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his last eight.  He's allowed 2 ER in five of his last six.  When he pitched here in Seattle back on April 9th, he allowed just one run and five hits in six innings of work.  He also finished w/ 10 strikeouts.  Over his L3 starts overall, Hill has a 3-0 team start record and a 0.967 WHIP.  He's also 5-0 in five road starts w/ a 1.76 ERA and 0.978 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Seattle's Taijuan Walker has been trending in much different direction. He has gone 0-3 w/ a 5.09 ERA over his last four starts. He was by no means terrible when he faced Oakland in his first start of the year as he allowed only two runs in six innings. But he did give up seven hits, one of them a home run.  The long ball has been a problem for Walker of late w/ five allowed in his last three starts. The bottom line is that the Mariners come into this series overvalued off a sweep of a terrible team. The opposite can be said for Oakland, who is in a "buy low" situation after losing four straight at home.  9* Oakland

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  The Nationals took two of three from the Mets last week. They followed that up by taking two of three from the Marlins over the weekend and now have a 1.5 game edge over New York, who is off a sweep of Milwaukee.  However, while relatively close in the standings, run differential is solidly in favor of the Nats (+56 to +26) and I give them a big edge in tonight's series opener at home. Gio Gonzalez may not be the most heralded member of this starting rotation, but he has been outstanding nonetheless. He's allowed 1 ER or less in six of his eight starts overall. That includes a 7-1 win over the Mets last Wednesday when he went 6 1/3 innings and allowed just five hits. Once again opposing him will be Bartolo Colon here. I expect the result to be the same.

Gonzalez has traditionally saved some of his best work for the Mets. He's 10-4 in 18 starts against them.  Really, he has dominated all NL East opponents, going 7-1 w/ a 1.38 ERA in 15 starts and has never allowed more than 2 ER! Over the last four starts overall, two of which came against the Mets and Marlins, he's a perfect 4-0 w/ a 0.97 ERA.  So, clearly, this is a pitcher is in top form right now. Colon, meanwhile, has a 6.06 ERA and 1.469 WHIP his L3 starts. He lasted only 4 2/3 innings opposite Gonzalez and gave up three runs while walking five batters. He allowed five runs, including a pair of homers in five innings of work his start before that, which was against the Dodgers.

The Mets offense is really struggling now. Though they swept Milwaukee over the weekend, it was hardly dominant. Two of the wins were by one-run and they didn't score more than five runs in any game.  They've now gone 14 consecutive games w/o scoring more than five runs.  The Nats, on the other hand, are 4-1 in their last five games and have outscored opponents 28-5 in the four wins. The only loss was a one-run game.  This price range suggests that Washington is in good shape as they are a perfect 5-0  as a home favorite of -150 to -175.   8* Washington

10* San Francisco (8:05 ET):  The Cubs have slowed down rather considerably over their L10 games, going just 4-6. Two of those four wins came in games started by Jake Arrieta, including Friday's series opener here in San Francisco.  But they lost last night, 5-3, and tonight represents a rare instance of them not being favored on the money line (just 5th time all season!) as the Giants are the hottest team in baseball right now and will have their ace Madison Bumgarner toeing the rubber. I believe that I've yet to play against the Cubs in 2016, but that changes on Sunday Night Baseball.  Take the Giants.

San Francisco has won 9 of their last 10 games. Having to go w/ Jake Peavy and Matt Cain in the first two games of this series seemed to put them at a distinct disadvantage and while the Peavy start went as expected (lost opposite Arrieta), Cain was able to turn in six really solid innings last night where he gave up just the one run. Tonight, the pitching matchup is finally in the Giants favor as Bumgarner has been red hot (1.69 ERA L6 starts) w/ the team winning the last five times he's taken the baseball.  Last time out, Bumgarner went the distance and allowed just one run (on a solo HR) and five hits while striking out 11 and walking no one. He is 3-0 w/ a 1.95 ERA his L4 starts against the Cubs.

Helping Bumgarner's cause even further is the fact that the Cubs have scored three runs or less in five of their last six games. There's a good chance that it will be six out of seven after tonight.  Except for Friday, the Giants have not allowed more than three runs in any of their last nine games.  This puts tremendous pressure on Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, who is one of the weaker cogs in the starting rotation to begin with. The team is down 4.7 units w/ him on the mound this year and he has the rotation's second highest ERA and WHIP.  His last two starts have resulted in losses to bottom feeders San Diego and Milwaukee, which is not a good sign when getting set to face a fellow division leader.  This is one of the rare times when the Cubs absolutely should not be favored to win. 10* San Francisco

10* St. Louis (2:10 ET): The Cardinals evened this series up at a game apiece w/ a 6-2 win Saturday. The key was hitting three home runs and starter Mike Leake gave them seven scoreless innings.  Arizona didn't even score until the top of the ninth. For today's rubber match, it will Zack Greinke vs. Jaime Garcia. While Greinke may have the slightly better TSR (team start record) here (5-4 vs. 4-4), Garcia has pitched better according to both ERA (2.86 to 5.08) and WHIP (1.033 to 1.394).  While Greinke has actually struggled more at his new home (Chase Field) than on the road, this is an offense that already lit him up once this year (7 runs and 11 hits).  I'm on the Redbirds in today's rubber match.

This has been a bit of a frustrating season for the Cardinals. They own MLB's third best run differential (+55), yet are just 23-20 and one-half game behind the Pirates, who are just +5. After going a perfect 7-0 vs. the D'backs last season (12-1 L2 years), they've only managed to split six games this year.    But "true to form," they've outscored them by five runs in those six games and that's despite losing 12-7 when Garcia faced Greinke back on April 25th. I already talked about how Greinke really struggled that day.  Garcia was by no means great (allowed four runs in 5 IP), but that's the most runs he's allowed in any start this year.  Over his L3 starts, Garcia has posted a 1.42 ERA and 0.842 WHIP.

Unless they are facing a lefty, St. Louis has had little problem scoring runs this year as they are second in runs scored. They are also fifth in team batting average, fourth in OBP and second in slugging.  In just the last three games, they've scored 26 runs while batting a collective .308.   This being a day game certainly seems to favor the home team as they are 9-5 this season in that situation (72-52 L3 seasons) while Arizona is 4-7 in day games this season (42-64 L3 seasons). Against lefties, the D'backs are just 4-7 (in 2016) and 38-54 the L3 seasons.  Only four teams have allowed more runs than Arizona has (Minnesota, Oakland, Milwaukee and Cincinnati) this year.  Greinke got away with allowing the seven runs the last time he saw this lineup; he won't be as fortunate today. 10* St. Louis

8* Washington (1:10 ET): Saturday, I was actually on Miami and they came through for me as Jose Fernandez improved to a remarkable 21-1 all-time at home. Fernandez obviously won't be pitching today, but Max Scherzer will, and thus "shifting sides" to the Nationals seems like the logical move. After his 20-strikeout performance on May 11th (vs. Detroit), Scherzer pitched well again on Tuesday, but the offense failed to score for him in a 2-0 loss.  Incredibly, the only four runs allowed by Scherzer over those two starts have come via solo home runs. Assuming that issue is corrected, I see no reason why he can't mow down the Marlins here. His KW ratio in just the last two games is 30-3.

Going into yday's game, Washington had won three straight and Miami had lost three straight. Obviously, the key there was Fernandez, who finished w/ 13 K's in six innings. However, the Marlins didn't actually take the lead until the bottom of the sixth and were fortunate to escape a bases loaded w/ no outs situation in the top of the ninth. Instead of facing Fernandez, here it will be Adam Conley, who struggled against the Nats earlier this year. He gave up four runs in a 7-0 loss, working 6 2/3 innings.  While Conley got away w/ giving up just one run over six innings in his last start, he did allow eight hits and that was against a weak-hitting team vs. the Phillies.  Washington is 5-1 vs. lefty starters this season.

On the run suppression side of the ledger, the Nats have allowed a total of just eight runs their last five games.  Miami has managed just four in the last two games and has not scored more than three in any of their last four. I expect Scherzer to keep that streak alive.  As a home underdog of +150 or less (which they are here), the Marlins are only 1-7 this season. They are also just 4-8 in day games. While separated by only 3.5 games in the NL East, the respective run differentials tell a very different story with these two teams as the Nats are +50 for the year while the Marlins are actually -5.  Fernandez himself was enough to justify a play on the home team yday, but w/o him on the mound, there is no denying that Washington is just the better team here. 8* Washington

10* Over Dodgers/Padres (10:10 ET):  Spacious Petco Park has long been a place conducive to the Under, but last year saw 45 of the Padres' 81 home games go Over the total. (San Diego was actually the top Over team in all of baseball, by a wide margin, as they went 94-62-6 Over in all games).  This year has seen a bit of a return to previous form as the team is 23-19-1 Under in all of its games, but the Over actually has a winning mark (12-10-1) here at Petco.  It was a 7-6 Padres win in yday's series opener with the Dodgers and I believe we will see another relatively high-scoring affair tonight.  Take the Over. 

Looking over recent results for both teams, the Dodgers are actually an opponent that the Padres were probably happy to see pop up on the schedule.  For starters, they avoid Clayton Kershaw this weekend and the Dodgers' rotation simply hasn't been that good beyond their ace.  Since Kershaw last started, the Dodgers have allowed a total of 23 runs in the last three games. Even though they've been shut out more times than any other team and held to only one run in all three games vs. the Giants, we saw what the Padres were able to do last night as they homered three times, the last of which was a walk-off.  The Over is now 4-0 in the Dodgers' last four games w/o Kershaw on the mound with them allowing at least seven runs in every game.

Alex Wood now takes his turn in the Dodgers' rotation and he simply has not been very good this year on the road.  He's 0-3 in four starts there with an 8.05 ERA and 1.842 WHIP.  His last two starts have come at home, which is why recent numbers look pretty good, but there hasn't been a single time on the road this year that he's given up fewer than five runs and as a result the Over has gone 4-0. The Padres counter w/ Cesar Vargas, who is winless over his last three starts thanks to a 5.40 ERA and an unsightly 1.867 WHIP.  His last start was the first time all season that he didn't walk anyone; in fact, he'd walked exactly three batters in each of his first four starts. It's probably not fair that Vargas is still winless in his five starts, but he's yet to last longer than six innings.  That's a problem when the San Diego bullpen has a 5.15 ERA at home. 10* Over Dodgers/Padres

8* Miami (7:15 ET):  If the Marlins are favored on the money line to beat the Nationals, it shouldn't be hard to guess who's pitching. That would be Jose Fernandez, of course, and he's at home where he's tasted defeat only one time in his entire career.  That was all the way back in his first start of this season, but since then it's been almost all quality starts and he's gotten a lot of batters to swing and miss the last two times he's taken the mound. That includes facing these Nationals, as he finished w/ 11 K's in an easy 5-1 win in D.C. last Sunday. Once again, he'll be opposed by Joe Ross and I expect the result to be the same, if not even more lopsided.

Washington did come out on top in last night's series opener, 4-1, but that was with all four runs coming in one inning and the Marlins actually outhitting them. Tanner Roark pitched well for the Nats after already being hit hard three times by Miami this season.  While Ross has pitched well himself (on the road) this season, lately he hasn't been very good as he's given up five runs in B2B starts. Miami did all of their scoring against him in just 5 2/3 innings Sunday. Clearly, Ross has regressed since three strong outings to start the year. While the Nats have won three straight and allowed only three runs in the process, I think it's important to remember that they had been held to one or no runs three times in their four games before that, twice by the Marlins.

Fernandez's home dominance has become the stuff of legend as he is now 20-1 w/ a 1.65 ERA in 30 lifetime starts here. Also, he's NEVER lost to Washington in eight tries, going 5-0 w/ a miniscule 1.09 ERA. He did throw a career-high 117 pitches on Sunday, but made only one mistake, that being an inside the park HR allowed to Ryan Zimmerman. Overall, Fernandez is 4-0 his L4 starts w/ a 2.16 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 25 IP. He's struck out 11 in B2B starts while allowing just the one inside the park home run and nothing else (only eight hits).  Considering that the Marlins were able to split the four games in Washington last weekend, I have every reason to believe they should be able to win here at home w/ their best pitcher on the mound. 8* Miami

8* Seattle (4:10 ET): Needless to say, Interleague Play has not gone well for the Reds this week. After being swept by Cleveland in a four-game home & home series, the NL Central cellar-dwellers dropped another game last night, this one to the Mariners by a score of 8-3. Life gets no easier this afternoon as they must face off against Felix Hernandez, who has been his usual dominant self despite a 4-4 team start record.  King Felix checks in w/ a 2.47 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in those eight starts and it's also important to remember here just how much better of a team Seattle is compared to Cincinnati. The first place M's are now 24-17 w/ a +43 run differential that's second best in the entire American League. Easy call this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the Reds' 15-27 record is third worst in all of baseball (not a surprise) and their YTD -82 run differential (MLB's worst) indicates that they are every bit as awful as that record shows, if not worse. They've been outscored by 32 runs the L5 games alone and these struggles against American League teams are actually nothing new as they've now lost 32 of 45 IL games since the start of the 2014 season. Starting today for them will be Jeremy Lamb, who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in three starts. He hasn't won any of them (0-1) nor has the team as his team start record is 0-3. Lamb gave up seven runs and 10 hits in just four innings against Cleveland on Monday.

Hernandez had one bad start at Oakland on May 4th, but otherwise has allowed 3 ER or less in his other seven outings. After "only" striking out 17 batters in his previous five starts, it was nice to see him finish w/ 9 K's Sunday against the Angels.  King Felix has simply loved pitching in NL parks throughout his career as he's gone 8-0 w/ a 1.44 ERA his last 10 (9-1 TSR). If for some reason, Seattle was to actually fall behind today, there's always the Reds bullpen that we can count on.  That group has a 6.76 ERA (MLB worst!) and we saw yday how bad they can be. But falling behind isn't something I anticipate happening w/ Hernandez on the mound, plus the Mariners are now an outstanding 16-7 in road games this year. Outside of Safeco Field, they are 9-1 in the -150 to -175 range the L3 seasons, all of those games coming with Hernandez pitching.  8* Seattle

6* Chi Cubs (10:15 ET):  The Cubs have cooled off a bit in recent days, dropping three of four, including two to lowly Milwaukee in the last series. But it's time for Jake Arrieta to take the mound on Friday and you know what that means.  The Cubs are very likely going to win. Actually, "very likely" might be putting it mildly as last year's Cy Young award winner has a perfect 21-0 team start record his last 21 regular season starts! Arrieta himself is 18-0 during that timespan (0.84 ERA!) and this year is 8-0 w/ a 0.839 WHIP.  In those eight starts, the Cubs have outscored their opponents by a colossal 64-13. That basically accounts for half of the team's remarkable +106 run differential this year. It's a pretty easy decision on what to do here.

Helping to drive up the value on Arrieta and the Cubs here is the fact that the Giants have won eight straight. But those back to back sweeps came against also-rans Arizona and San Diego and both series were on the road.  Each of the team's last seven games have stayed Under the total due to a phenomenal run of pitching that has seen them allow just 10 runs - total! But even though Jake Peavy was a lot better his last time out, he still has a 7.43 ERA and 1.750 WHIP this year. It's a total mismatch here with him on the mound going against Arrieta. 

The Cubs are 8-1 off a loss this season, which obviously means they've dropped back to back games only one time all season. So they're a solid bet to bounce back after yesterday afternoon's surprising defeat.  Also, it's worth noting that seven of the Cubs' 11 losses this season have come in the daytime.  They are 17-4 in night games.   This will be the third cheapest price available on Arrieta so far this season.  6* Chi Cubs

6* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Again, it's the "giant chasm" that I like to talk about when it comes to the National League this year that's present in this weekend series. It's also a good time to take advantage of recent results when it comes to the non-contending Brewers and the reigning Senior Circuit champion Mets.  Milwaukee is probably feeling pretty good about itself after taking two of three from the Cubs (at home) to start the week. Meanwhile, the Mets have lost six of seven and were held to only four runs in their last series. But the oddsmakers aren't fooled and quite frankly neither am I. Expect this to be a bounce back weekend for the Metropolitans.

New York is actually behind Philadelphia in the NL East entering play on Friday. Who could have thought that would be the case?  While Matt Harvey's woes continued yday, it has been the lack of offense that's been the primary problem of late in Queens. During the 1-6 slide, this team is averaging only 1.9 rpg and batting a collective .205. But a matchup tonight with Wily Peralta should change all that as the Brew Crew starter checks in w/ a 7.30 ERA and 1.992 WHIP in his eight starts this year. That WHIP is the worst in all of MLB among qualified starters.  Peralta got rocked his last time out - by San Diego - giving up six runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work.   He has won just seven of his last 28 starts dating back to last season.

There's also the matter that Milwaukee hasn't won a road series all season. Plus, the Mets giving the baseball to Steven Matz is something that you have to like here.  Matz is a perfect 3-0 his last three starts and has been dominant in the process, turning in a 0.92 ERA and 0.966 WHIP.  After not allowing a single run in B2B starts, he did give up two his last time out, but it was still a relatively easy win at Dodger Stadium.  He will certainly be well-rested here as his last turn in the rotation was skipped (elbow tightness).  Overall, the team is 5-1 when Matz starts and this has all the makings of a "get well" game for the home team.  6* NY Mets

    

6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates are the only team in either league that hasn't been shutout this season and needless to say I expect that to still be the case after tonight when they figure to "tee off" on inconsistent Rockies starter Eddie Butler.  The fact that Colorado has a winning road record this year really surprises me given the team is a horrible 65-119 outside of the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field since the start of the 2014 season. Pittsburgh has not been a favorable draw for them in the past as they are just 3-13 their last 16 games against the Bucs, including 1-9 since the start of last season. Pittsburgh swept a three-game set in Coors Field earlier this year.

They're only 22-18 overall, so the Pirates best take care of business during this favorable part of the schedule. They just took three of four here at PNC Park against the Braves to start what will be a 10-game homestand (D'backs after this series). As stated above, they've really had the Rockies number the last few seasons and that should continue this weekend thanks to an offense that is second in team batting average and on base percentage.  Colorado pitching has always been shaky through the years, but so far in 2016 they are giving up only 3.7 rpg on the road. Now that being said, after holding St. Louis to only three runs in two games, they gave up 13 on Thursday. Two of Butler's three starts have been poor as he's given up at least four runs while not making it a full six innings.

Maybe Pittsburgh won't be as prolific at the plate as they were at Coors Field earlier this year (scored 24 runs in three games), but they won't have to be considering Colorado has scored only 21 times in its last eight games here at PNC Park.  It feels like Gerrit Cole hasn't been as good as advertised so far for the Bucs, but he's allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six outings and comes off his best one to date as he held the Cubs scoreless and gave up just three hits in 8 IP. Regardless of the respective records and run differentials of the two teams here, I again point to the fact that there is a real gap between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League this year. So this price is justified. 6* Pittsburgh

6* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET):  Eventually, Chris Sale will lose a game this season, but don't bank on it happening tonight as he gets set to face the Astros. Now, the White Sox have dropped both games in this series so far and four in a row overall.  But Sale is the ultimate stopper as he comes in w/ an 8-0 record in his eight starts, a 1.67 ERA and 0.758 WHIP.  Last time out, he went out the distance, allowing just one run and six hits in a 7-1 win over the Yankees. The team has now outscored its opponents 31-5 in Sale's last four starts!  The ace has allowed 1 ER or less in five of his last six starts and has held Houston in check throughout his career, posting a 47-4 KW ratio in 32 innings pitched. Look for the home team to avoid the sweep.

Before these last four games, Chicago had been off to a fantastic start. They'd outscored opponents by 41 runs in 36 games and it should be pointed out that they've hardly been dominated during this season-worst losing skid as every loss has been by one or two runs.  Houston, meanwhile, has been one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball as they still are seven games below .500 and in last place of a pretty weak AL West.  The biggest issue for them has been bullpen regression and that regression has hit hardest on the road where their relievers have posted a 5.48 ERA and 1.360 WHIP.  Compare those numbers to the White Sox bullpen, which has improved dramatically this year (1.92 ERA at home, 1.030 WHIP).  

Obviously, the White Sox are going to have the edge in starting pitching virtually every time Sale takes the mound, but I think that it definitely helps that tonight's starter for Houston (Colin McHugh) has been downright woeful on the road so far. In three road starts, McHugh has an 8.74 ERA and 2.118 WHIP and his last time out saw him give up 10 hits in six innings while walking more hitters than he struck out.  Prior to yday's win, the Astros were just 2-13 when coming off a win.  They are also allowing 6.0 rpg on the road this year.   6* Chi White Sox

8* Chi Cubs (1:40 ET):  I have a feeling that the Cubs "broke the spirit" of the Brewers last night via a 2-1 win in 13 innings.  It was almost the Cubbies third straight loss (which would have been a 1st for 2016), however, they were able to tie the game in the top of the ninth (JJ Hardy's first blown save of the year for the Brew Crew) and then reliever Travis Wood was the hero in extra innings by first getting out of a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the 12th, then improbably drawing a bases loaded walk in the top of the 13th to win the game.  It's simply been that kind of season so far for the team from the Northside of Chicago and considering the quick turnaround between games here and that giant chasm between the "have's" and "have not's" in the National League that I always like to reference, I say it's advantage Cubs this afternoon.

Now the Cubs bullpen obviously was taxed yday, but they came through by throwing seven scoreless innings.  Thus, we will likely need a quality start today and thankfully Jason Hammel is just the man for the job. Hammel comes in w/ a 1.77 ERA (third best in the NL) in seven starts (6-1 TSR) and is a perfect 8-0 w/ a 2.37 ERA in his career vs. Milwaukee.  He has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season.  Six times, he's allowed two or fewer.  This is a pretty weak lineup that he'll be facing today as Milwaukee comes in averaging just 2.6 rpg its last seven contests. 

The Cubs lineup has quieted down itself over the last week, but I assume that's only a temporary thing as they've averaged 6.3 rpg on the road this season. Clearly, it will be difficult to sustain that kind of average, but after scoring all of five runs the L3 days, don't be surprised if they break out here. After all, they lead the NL in runs scored (218) and are averaging nearly 10 runs per game when Hammel starts!  Milwaukee starter Junior Guerra has held opponents to a .206 batting average in three starts, but I feel his stock is a little overvalued coming off an impressive outing against the punchless Padres.  The Brewers simply aren't a very good team, an opinion that is confirmed by their -37 run differential. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Under Astros/White Sox (8:10 ET):  There's been a real "role reversal" with these teams looking at this year and last.  In 2015, Houston was the break out team in the American League, jumping from 70 wins the previous year to 86 and a playoff berth. But they've regressed this season as they currently find themselves in last place at 16-24 despite winning here on the Southside of Chicago yday.  Meanwhile, the White Sox remain in first place in the AL Central at 24-15 after finishing ten games below .500 last season. Seeing as Houston was able to win Tuesday, I have no opinion on the side tonight, but I do have a strong call on the total and that's Under as the White Sox have given up the fewest number of runs in the entire A.L. while Houston is simply "due" to start giving up fewer than what we've seen in recent days.

The Astros are just 2-13 off a win this year, so there's a good chance we'll see a decrease in production at the plate after they scored six times in yday's extra inning win. Note that the game was tied 4-4 after nine innings. But Doug Fister should give his team a chance tonight as the Houston starter has made five consecutive quality starts.  Here in May, he's allowed just 6 ER and 16 hits in 20 IP.  He's coming off arguably his best outing of the season to date as he needed only 89 pitches to get through seven innings and recorded 14 outs via ground ball.  There hasn't been a single Over in Fister's last six starts as three have stayed Under and three have fallen right on the number. The last one pushed as it went 16 innings, but only eight total runs were scored.

Each of the Astros' last five games have gone Over the total with them giving up an average of more than seven runs per game.  But that number will start to come down, trust me. As for the fact that Houston has averaged nearly seven runs per game themselves over the last four contests, tonight they run into Mat Latos, who is enjoying a tremendous resurgence in 2016 w/ a 6-1 team start record. He's regressed a bit over his L3 starts, but remember he's allowed 1 or 0 ER in each of his first four starts. His L2 starts came against teams seeing him for a second time this year, which is probably why his performance suffered.  Houston has not seen him since 2012 when they were a NL team and Latos was on the Reds.  10* Under Astros/White Sox

6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  This figured to be an easy series for the host Pirates and sure enough it has been thus far as they've posted B2B three-run victories, 8-5 and 12-9.  I'll continue to speak of this "giant chasm" that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League while looking to exploit it. There's, of course, no team worse in the Senior Circuit than Atlanta right now as the Braves are 9-29 with a -70 run differential. I can't find any reason why they'd "get off the mat" Wednesday as Pittsburgh should make it three in a row in this four-game set.

  Atlanta did make a managerial change before yday's game, dumping Fredi Gonzalez in favor of Brian Snitker, who has basically spent his entire career coaching in the organization's minor league system. That change had little to no effect on the big league club Tuesday as they found themselves down 7-0 after one inning and 9-0 after two.  Offensively, they simply cannot compete with the Pirates, who had 21 hits yday (season-high) and are now second in all of MLB in team batting average (.282) and 1st in OBP (.361).  The Braves are dead last in baseball in runs scored, 28th in batting average, 27th in OBP and 30th (last) in slugging.

From a pitching perspective, Atlanta may not seem to be in as bad of shape as starter Julio Teheran has a 1.44 ERA his L5 starts. But the problem has been a lack of run support and as a result his team start record this year is 1-7.  It's probably bad news that he's getting the baseball the day after the offense registered a season-high in runs scored and hits. Also, the pressure will be on Teheran to go deep into the game as the bullpen saw extended action yday.  Pittsburgh counters w/ Francisco Liriano, who has been a totally different pitcher at home than on the road.  He has a 0.71 ERA in two starts here at PNC Park, winning both, so look for him to bounce back from a disastrous showing at Wrigley Field last week.  This price range does not scare me at all as the Bucs are 14-4 the L3 seasons as home favorites of -175 to -200.  That includes 2-0 this season. 6* Pittsburgh

7* San Francisco (10:15 ET):  Again, I come back to the rather giant (no pun intended!) chasm that exists this year in the National League between the contenders and non-contenders. Here, we have one team from each group and after watching the Giants sweep another division rival (Arizona) over the weekend, I see no reason why they couldn't do the same here to a San Diego team that is even less impressive on paper.  At least, I'll call for San Francisco to take tonight's series opener as they have Madison Bumgarner taking the hill and it's a very reasonable price considering the way he's pitched against the Padres in the past.

The Giants have won five in a row coming into this series and in all five wins they've gotten a quality start out of the rotation.  It began w/ Bumgarner holding the vaunted Toronto lineup to only one run and three hits in 6 2/3 innings work.  He now goes to facing a much weaker lineup obviously and over his L5 starts vs. San Diego, he's 3-0 w/ a 1.69 ERA.  Earlier this year, he held them to just two runs in a 5-4 victory at AT&T Park.  He hasn't lost since, winning four straight starts.  Bumgarner's WHIP hasn't been that good, but I fully expect that number to improve moving forward.  San Diego is only averaging 2.9 runs per game at home this season while batting a collective .227.

I've yet to speak much about the Padres and what they've been doing of late. They just split a four-game series on the road w/ Milwaukee, during which they were shut out for a Major League leading ninth time. In fact, they were held to three runs or fewer in three of the four games.  Tonight's starter Colin Rea has won his last three starts, but was fortunate his last time out in that he had more walks than strikeouts and allowed four runs in just five innings of work.  The offense has been surprisingly effective when he pitches, but I don't anticipate that being the case tonight against Bumgarner.  Not only is San Diego hitting at only a .213 clip overall its L7 games, but they are averaging just 3.3 rpg against LH starters (.227 BA).  7* San Francisco

7* St. Louis (8:15 ET): When writing about the National League this year, I often mention the giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders. We have one team from each group in this series that gets underway Tuesday at Busch Stadium with the Cardinals hosting the Rockies. So far, St. Louis has been a bit of a disappointment w/ their 20-18 WL record, but a +49 run differential (3rd best in MLB!) indicates that better days could be on the horizon. Or maybe not, but the bottom line is that I have little regard for a Colorado team which is a hideous 64-117 outside of Coors Field the L3 seasons.  They come in having won four straight as they just swept the Mets at home, but I'm not buying them, in fact I'll "sell high." 

It looks to be a fairly significant pitching mismatch for tonight's series opener as the Redbirds will send Jaime Garcia to the bump while the Rockies counter with Chad Bettis.  The former has outstanding numbers despite a mediocre team start record, particularly here at home where his ERA is 1.98 and his WHIP is 0.695. Somehow, he's managed to go only 2-2 in those four starts and that "somehow" is the offense scoring only one run for him in each loss.  But I would expect the Cards' offense, which is third best in all of MLB right now (5.6 runs per game) to "tee off" against Bettis, who has a 5.89 ERA and 1.528 WHIP his L3 starts and has allowed three or more runs in all but two of his eight starts.

It's really surprising to find that Colorado is allowing only 3.4 rpg on the road this year. While the staff is clearly hindered by its home ballpark, it's not like it's an impressive looking group on paper. They've allowed at least six runs in 17 of their 37 games overall and, again, they are facing one of the more prolific lineups in the game here.  The last time this club posted a five-game win streak was 2014.  For what it's worth, Tuesday simply hasn't been the Rockies day this year as they are 0-6 in Tuesday games.  This should be a breakout series for the home team, which is an outstanding 25-5 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 the L3 seasons.  7* St. Louis

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  Clearly, the Phillies have massively overachieved to this point. All you need to do is look at their -32 run differential to know that the 22-17 record is quite fraudulent. The fact they've gone 14-3 in one-run games is what's "kept them afloat" and they did lose last night, 5-3, here at home to Miami.  But, that all being said, they are a solid value tonight w/ Vincent Velasquez on the mound.  Philadelphia's starting pitching has been a most pleasant surprise this season, most notably posting a MLB-high six shutouts so far. Two of those have come from Velasquez, plus he also tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball against Cleveland in what ended up as a 2-1 victory. His first start against Miami wasn't as effective, but now facing them here at home, I think he'll be better the second time around.

On May 6th, Velasquez lost to the Marlins 6-4 as he gave up four runs over six innings. That start also saw him allow a season-high seven hits. But the good news is a rematch with Wei-Yin Chen (more on him in a moment) takes place in the City of Brotherly Love where Velasquez has been superb in three starts, posting a 0.93 ERA and 0.724 WHIP. Again, in two of those starts he did not allow a single run.  In that first meeting w/ Chen and Miami, it's not like his counterpart pitched that well. In fact, Chen allowed four runs and 11 hits in just five innings of work. He (Chen) then did turn in a season-best performance last Wednesday, striking out 12 in a 3-2 win over the Brewers. But I would not look for a repeat of that here. The most K's that Chen had posted in any start previously was seven and he didn't have any against the Phillies. Only one other time in his career had he struck out 10+ batters.

Being that they've been such a surprise to this point, it shouldn't be too shocking to find out that the Phils lead all of MLB in net units at +11.0.   Miami, meanwhile, has been an equally surprising 13-7 on the road thus far.  So, something has gotta give.  Last night, it was the home team giving a little back, but tonight I think Velasquez will get his revenge on Chen now that he gets to face him at Citizens Bank Park.  10* Philadelphia

full analysis soon

8* Detroit (7:10 ET):  It's been a shaky stretch for the Tigers, who are just 3-11 in May and that has landed manager Brad Ausmus on the proverbial hot seat. But if Ausmus were able to draw up an ideal situation for his club to get back on track, then it would probably look something like tonight as they are back at home, facing the lowly Minnesota Twins and have Jordan Zimmerman on the mound. When these AL Central rivals met earlier in the season, it was all Detroit as they rolled to a three-game sweep, outscoring Minnesota 19-8 in the process. While the Twins are coming off B2B road wins for the first time all season, that doubled their number of total road wins all season, and thus it's difficult to envision them making it three in a row here at the Tigers' expense.

Zimmerman has yet to have a bad start for the Tigers as he's 7 for 7 in quality outings and brings in a 1.50 ERA and 1.104 WHIP.  Unfortunately, the team has also lost his last two starts, but there's a good reason for that as he was being opposed by Cole Hamels and then Max Scherzer, who held Detroit to just three runs combined.  I'll touch on what kind of run support I expect him to get in a moment, but Zimmerman should have no problems here w/ a Twins lineup that is tied for last in the American League for runs scored. He held them to just one run (on six hits) over seven innings back on April 30th while also posting his best KW ratio to date (7-0). 

Jose Berrios was Minnesota's top minor league pitcher last year, but success has yet to really come to the 21-year old at the big league level as he owns a 6.28 ERA and 1.745 WHIP through three starts and he's walked eight batters in 14 1/3 IP.  His one road start was the best of the three, but I expect him to struggle here against a Tigers lineup which has the top two hitters in the entire American League right now (in terms of batting average).  Victor Martinez is hitting .352 and Nick Castellanos is at .344.  Those two combined to go 15 for 24 at the plate in the last series vs. Minnesota w/ Castellanos hitting a pair of home runs. It's downright shocking that the Tigers are only 5-9 at home thus far, but the Twins are just 4-16 on the road (0-8 in the +125 to +150 price range) and thus what should be an easy series for Detroit gets off to a positive start this evening.  8* Detroit

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  The Pirates were finally able to beat the Cubs yday, 2-1, despite the fact that they were actually no-hit for the first six innings.  Now that they've completed that series, things should get far easier for the Bucs as they go from facing the best team in baseball (sorry, Gerrit Cole) to its worst.  This series with Atlanta actually begins a 24-game stretch outside of the division for Pittsburgh, which has to be music to the club's ears considering the fact they're actually seven games below .500 vs. the rest of the NL Central since the start of last season.  The Braves' record might be significantly worse when they're at home, but they still are being outscored by 1.2 runs per game on the road.  This should be an easy series for the home team, who I have winning big tonight.

Atlanta, not surprisingly, is coming off a loss on Sunday. They had to play 13 innings before eventually falling to Kansas City, 4-2, and have now dropped 18 of their last 23 games while winning just one series all year. Yesterday's extra inning affair saw the Braves use six different relievers, which will do them no favors here.  They figure to get little out of starter Williams Perez, who is coming off what was - easily - his best start of the year.  Consider though that Perez failed to complete even five innings in any of his first three starts while producing a negative KW ratio and that had earned him a demotion to the minors. It's a big difference going from facing the Phillies (29th in runs score) to the Pirates, who are 4th in team batting average and 3rd in on base percentage.

Jon Niese will be the starter tonight for the Pirates.  Through five starts, Niese had a perfect team start record, but was a clear candidate for regression as his personal numbers did not indicate any kind of dominance. He's given up plenty of home runs so far, including three solo shots in his last start, which accounted for all the runs he allowed in a tough 3-2 loss to Cincinnati. Before that he had to pitch at Coors Field and then against the Cubs, who also handed him a loss. But while his counterpart Perez goes from facing a weak lineup in his last start to one of baseball's best here, the opposite is true for Niese, who should get back on track tonight thanks to facing MLB's lowest scoring lineup. He has a 2.30 ERA his L9 starts vs. Atlanta, which is a good sign as well. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Over Cardinals/Dodgers (8:05 ET):  The Dodgers have beaten the Cardinals each of the last two days and can finish off the sweep tonight.  It's certainly been a frustrating season in the gateway city of St. Louis as the club is only one game above .500 despite a +46 run differential that's third best in all of MLB.  Though I think it's going to be "that kind of season" for the Redbirds, I'd still be a little leery about betting against them in this spot. However, the Over has also cashed in the first two games of this series and I see that as the best bet for tonight as the number is once again pretty low.

St. Louis has certainly had no problem scoring runs this year as they are one of three teams (Cubs, Red Sox) to be above the 200-run threshold right now.  Even though they've scored just seven runs in two games against the Dodgers, they are still averaging 6.1 rpg the last seven contests while batting a collective .292.  The Over is 23-12-2 in all Cardinals' games this year, making them one of five teams to be cashing at a 65% Over clip or better.  This offense is also fourth in OBP (.344) and second in slugging (.475).  Meanwhile, the Dodgers have scored 13 runs the L2 days, so I think we can count on them too, especially considering the way St. Louis' pitchers have struggled of late.

Last year, St. Louis was #1 in MLB in ERA by a wide margin, but this year they are down to 13th (4.09) and I can't say I'm that surprised as this group was a clear candidate for regression. It is Mike Leake getting the baseball tonight and while his last start looks good (allowed only 1 ER in 8 IP), note that he'd allowed at least four runs in each of his first six outings.  The Over is 4-0 his last four starts.  Alex Wood has a 4.58 ERA in his seven starts for the Dodgers this year and while he's been better at home, I wouldn't be too confident w/ him facing this offense.  8* Over Cardinals/Dodgers

10* Arizona (4:10 ET):  It's rare to see a home team swept in a four-game series, but that's the fate awaiting Arizona were they to lose again this afternoon.  Fortunately, they will be going up against Matt Cain, who is 0-5 in seven starts (1-6 TSR) w/ a 6.69 ERA and 1.512 WHIP this year. Now, I understand that yday saw them fail to break through against another struggling San Francisco starter, that being Jake Peavy. But on Sunday, the D'backs have a better starter of their own going and that should prove to be the difference as they look to avoid the sweep.  Sooner rather than later, the club's awful 5-15 record at home is due to turn around.

Cain has been especially bad on the road this year for the Giants as his ERA is 10.12 in two starts. The team has lost each of the last six times he's taken the mound, even the last time despite him allowing only two runs over eight innings (offense was shut out vs. Toronto).  But he'd allowed at least six runs in three of five starts previous to that one and didn't fare much better when he faced Arizona on April 19th.  There, he allowed three runs in only 4 2/3 innings and again the offense was shutout.  I guess I should perhaps offer a caveat on my opening statement about home teams rarely getting swept in four-game series because that happened to the Giants in last month's series vs. the D'backs.  So the road team is now 7-0 in head to head meetings.  Simply put, the home team is due to win one, right? 

Pitching today for Arizona is Rubby De La Rosa, who has been trending in a positive direction as of late. He allowed just one run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings his last time out as the team won 5-1 at Colorado.  That was the third time in his last four starts that De La Rosa allowed 1 or 0 ER  and his WHIP is down to 0.950 his L3 starts.  He is 4-1 all-time vs. San Francisco and posted a 3.16 ERA against them as a starter last season.  Last night's game could have gone either way as Arizona tied things up heading into the ninth only to allow two runs in the top of the frame. It's been nothing but low-scoring games so far in this series, but I look for the D'backs to finally get it going offensively today and it's established that they have the edge in starting pitching. 10* Arizona

7* NY Yankees (1:05 ET):  The Pinstripes drew a tough assignment the last two days, first facing Chris Sale and then Jose Quintana. But they were able to salvage a split and today the pitching matchup seems firmly in their favor as Masahiro Tanaka opposes Miguel Gonzalez. It was a 2-1 final in the Yanks' favor yday and for the first time we were able to see their bullpen in "full effect" as Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman completely dominated the final three innings, combining for eight strikeouts and allowing only one hit. That's going to be a very dangerous trio moving forward and combined with the starting pitching edge, it's an easy call on the home team this afternoon.

Tanaka has an outstanding 0.928 WHIP in his seven starts so far, thus he should probably have a better team start record than only 4-3.  Then again, last time out, he was quite fortunate to get away w/ allowing six runs to Kansas City as the offense backed him up w/ a rare explosive day at the plate.  Presuming the Yankees offense even puts a few runs on the board here, we should be in good shape though.  Tanaka had not allowed more than 2 ER in any of his first six starts and remember that the Yankees won yday despite scoring only two runs. They're actually in a position now to win a third consecutive series.

Aiding New York's cause offensively is the fact they face the struggling Gonzalez, who has a 4.91 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in his two starts. He has not fared well in the past vs. the Yanks, especially on the road, where he is 0-3 w/ a 6.23 ERA his L5 starts at Yankee Stadium.  Chicago's bullpen has been really good thus far in its own right, but just mediocre on the road (3.40 ERA).  Gonzalez will now have to face Jacoby Ellsbury, who returns to the lineup today for the first time since May 6.  It's a clear pitching edge for the home team today and assuming they get up early, it's lights out from there with the tremendous bullpen now operating at full capacity.  7* NY Yankees

8* Seattle (9:10 ET):  The Mariners are a team few are talking about, but they should have your attention right now.  They lead the AL West and a +31 run differential verifies that they are legit. While they did lose yday's series opener to the Angels, I fully expect the M's to bounce back tonight as I'd put the Halos at the opposite end of the spectrum right now. Los Angeles was a team that I expected to struggle this year and being that they are so decimaned by injuries right now, it's going to be tough for them to consistently win games. They'd, in fact, dropped six in a row heading into yday. Seattle, meanwhile, has still won 16 of its last 22.

The Angels rotation is so bad (8.54 ERA L12 games) and besieged by injury right now that they had no choice but to go out and acquire Jhoulys Chacin from Atlanta. Chacin hardly looked great in his four starts this year w/ the Braves, particularly his last time out (May 4th) where he gave up eight runs in 4 2/3 IP.  This will be his Angels debut and it's a tough spot facing a lineup that has hit a collective .271 its last 21 games w/ 32 home runs (5.2 runs/game).  Something else to consider is that the Angels have not posted consecutive victories since a three-game win streak from April 25th-27th. Since that time, they've lost 10 of 13 games.

I realize that Hisashi Iwakuma's numbers are hardly awe-inspiring, but look for the Seattle starter to pitch well tonight.  He's allowed three runs or less in five of his seven starts this year, only to be victimized by poor run support. His strong history against the Angels (8-3 w/ 2.79 ERA in 14 career outings) gives me plenty of confidence in him here and in fact his best start of 2016 came against this opponent as back on April 22nd, he allowed just two runs over eight innings.  The M's won that game 5-2.  Keep in mind they were also up 6-3 heading into the eighth last night and were just two outs away from victory before giving up a two-run single in the top of the ninth.   They get revenge tonight.  8* Seattle

10* Over Reds/Phillies (7:10 ET):  The Phillies won another one-run game yday (now 13-3 in them!), beating the Reds by a score of 3-2.  This stunning start to the season has the Phils at 21-15 in spite of a -26 run differential. In my opinion, they are nowhere near as good as their record and due to fall off sooner rather than later.  But with Cincinnati (-54 run differential) providing the opposition this weekend, it's tough to buck Philly here while they're at home. But I do feel comfortable in projecting a much higher-scoring game than what we saw yday. Yes, both of tonight's starters have surprisingly good WHIPs and neither offense happens to be setting "the world on fire" currently. But this is a pretty low total, especially from the Reds' perspective.

So far, there's been only one time this month where a game involving Cincinnati has seen a O/U line lower than 8.5.  That game took place on May 2nd vs. the Giants and 15 total runs were scored (Reds lost 9-6).  Note that despite the consistently high totals, this team has seen the Over go 19-13-3 to this point.  Their struggling lineup figures to have a shot today against Aaron Nola, who has not been very good at all here at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies starter has an 8.25 ERA in his two home starts thus far and that includes him giving up seven runs the last time he pitched here.  Nola's last start, which resulted in a 6-5 win at Miami, also went Over the total.

Cincinnati sends Tim Adelman to the bump tonight and while he's pitched relatively well both times we've seen him (Reds won both times), it's not like he's pitched very deep into the games. That's troubling when you consider just how awful this team's bullpen has been in 2016 (6.14 ERA).  Also, the Reds are giving up an average of 6.1 runs per game on the road.  Seven of the last 10 times these teams have met, the Over has cashed, so consider last night's game an anomaly as we should see plenty of runs scored in this one.  10* Over Reds/Phillies

8* Kansas City (7:15 ET):  I'm not very high on the Royals this year as I expected them to regress in 2016 and regress they have (currently 17-18, -15 run differential). BUT, as yday showed, this series with Atlanta should be a relative "walk in the park."  The reigning World Series champs are still a strong 10-5 at home this season, so that's a good sign as is the fact the Braves are an absolutely atrocious 8-26 overall w/ a -69 run differential, both of which are MLB worsts. It was a 5-1 win for the home team on Friday behind seven strong innings from Edinson Volquez.  Dillon Gee makes his 1st start for the Royals tonight and I expect a similarly strong outing from him. 

  Gee has not started a game since last June when he was still with the Mets.  When the team that Kansas City beat in LY's World Series became so "pitching rich," Gee became expendable. But that by no means is to say he can't be a good starting pitcher. He had a lot of early success in his Mets' career and so far this season he's been effective coming out of the bullpen w/ a 2.61 ERA in seven appearances. He's struck out 16 batters in 20 2/3 IP.  Though he's transitioning from being a reliever, we should not worry about any kind of durability issues as at one point in his career he'd gone at least five innings in  51 consecutive starts, which at the time was the longest active streak in all of MLB.

Further helping Gee and the Royals' cause is the fact that Atlanta has the worst offense in the majors. We saw that last night when they managed only one run and they've now scored only 102 runs in 34 games, an average of just 3.0/game.  They are batting just .214 on the road this year and I don't think the simple addition of the DH to the lineup will be enough to cure what ills them. The Braves have scored only 19 runs total in the last eight games.  Making matters worse is that starter Mike Foltynewicz was rocked in his lone road start thus far, giving up four runs in just 3 2/3 IP.  So while Kansas City's results to this point have been disappointing, this is a series that they should most definitely sweep and I have them winning big tonight. 8* Kansas City

6* Cleveland (4:10 ET):  Over the last year, I've always felt for the Indians' Corey Kluber. It's not like the former Cy Young winner has pitched that much worse than he did in his award winning season (2014), he's just been far less "lucky."   Yes, there have been seven different times (in 39 starts) that he's allowed 5+ ER. But a lot of those results have come despite him still not putting many runners on base. Case in point; his last time out saw him give up five runs on five hits. Now he did last only 2 2/3 innings in a shocking performance vs. the Phillies, but that was his third loss this year where he allowed only five hits. (He went much longer in the other two).  The disparity between his WHIP (1.073) and ERA (4.14) tells me that Kluber is due to turn things around and it starts today against the worst team in the American League, Minnesota.

The Indians took last night's series opener, 7-6, thanks to scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth. It was the Tribe's seventh win in the last 10 games overall and this is one of the seven AL teams playing well right now. They have a +15 run differential that is 6th best.  This should be a favorable series for them as the division rival Twins have now dropped eight in a row overall and are now 2-16 on the road. This game taking place during the afternoon does Minnesota no favors either as they are 3-11 so far in day games.  In some regard, they "wasted" a strong night at the plate yday as it was just the third time in the L18 games that they scored six runs. They'd averaged less than 3.0 rpg their previous seven contests, never scoring more than four.  So, I expect Kluber to hold this lineup in check pretty easily.

What's strange about Kluber's last outing is that he'd really seemed to have "turned a corner" as his previous three outings saw him allow just four runs and 12 hits in 24 IP, including one CG shutout (came here at home) w/ a 23-2 KW ratio.  Likewise, Minnesota's Ervin Santana is off his shortest outing of 2016, but he doesn't have the resume of Kluber and is just 4-10 w/ a 4.49 ERA in 19 career starts vs. the Indians. The team has lost all five of his starts this season and he's posted a 1.629 WHIP.  The Twins have now been outscored by 64 runs this season. 6* Cleveland

10* Under Mets/Rockies (8:40 ET):  I realize that taking the Under at Coors Field is always a bit of a scary proposition. The home team is just 5-10 here for the season and allowing nearly eight runs per game! But that number cannot possibly continue and this has to be the highest total for any Matt Harvey start in his young career.  Therefore, all the value is on the Under in this one as the Mets were just shut out last night and come in batting a woeful .210 the last seven days.  Colorado was 0-7 vs. the Mets last season and only twice did they manage to score more than three runs in a game against them.

Harvey has been brilliant in the first four innings of games this season, posting a 1.61 ERA. It's after that he runs into trouble. While there is some legit concern about the fact that this is his first time ever starting at Coors Field, I think that's mitigated by a couple of factors. One is that Harvey looked very good his last time out, allowing just two runs on four hits while mowing down 10 batters as his fastball topped out at 97 MPH.  Granted, that was at a much more pitcher-friendly environment (San Diego), but clearly it was a step in the right direction nonetheless.  Also, the Rockies have been held to two runs or less in three of their past five ball games. 

The Mets are allowing only 3.0 rpg and their pitching staff has the second best ERA in all of baseball (2.86).  Clearly, those numbers will be put to the test in this environment, but if the offense continues to struggle, then we should be in pretty good shape.  Over the L10 games, the Mets have been held to four runs or less eight times and been shut out on three occasions.  I get that they're are likely to improve simply because of park adjustments this weekend, but I don't think they'll improve to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for here.  Rockies starter Jon Gray just threw seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball his last time out and has allowed only two runs and five hits in his last 13 innings of work.  10* Under Mets/Rockies

8* Under Blue Jays/Rangers (8:05 ET):  Surprise, surprise.  Toronto comes into the weekend as the top Under team in all of baseball w/ a 23-10-3 mark including an 8-2-1 run here in May.  The key to this is their offense, which "lapped" the league LY in scoring, is down more than a full run per game and the oddsmakers really have yet to adjust properly. That's certainly the case here as we have a monster total. I realize that the starting pitching matchup doesn't seem conducive when you look at the YTD numbers, but both RA Dickey for Toronto and Martin Perez for Texas have actually been really solid of late.  Take the Under.

The Rangers come into tonight's series opener on a five-game Over streak.  Considering that they just played three games against the White Sox, whose pitching had been the best in all of baseball, that's a little surprising. They've averaged over eight runs per game themselves during the streak, but a number of their key hitters have struggled in the past against the knuckleballer Dickey, including Elvis Andrus (0 for 14 lifetime, most AB's vs. any pitcher w/o a hit) and Prince Fielder (4 for 18).  Earlier this month, in a series where Toronto took three of four, Dickey held this lineup to just one run over 6 2/3 IP. Unfortunately, the Jays lost the game, but I'll gladly take a repeat of the final score there, which was 2-1.  Starting opposite Clayton Kershaw his last time out, Dickey did allow four runs in 7 IP, but two were unearned.

The Blue Jays have yet to score more than four runs in any Dickey start this season, which has to be "music to the ears" of Rangers' starter Perez, who threw five scoreless innings against this opponent back on May 3rd.  Three of the four games in that series stayed Under, yet tonight's O/U line would be the highest for any of the matchups to date.  Perez limited the Tigers to just two runs on two hits his last time out and despite dealing with some control issues, I think he'll do just fine in this spot considering he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts this year.  8* Under Blue Jays/Rangers

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  Both of these teams were able to win their previous series by taking the first and last games respectively.  Washington played three one-run games against Detroit while Miami won two low scoring games against Milwaukee and was routed in the one loss.  This is already the third time these NL East rivals have hooked up in 2016 and so far they're dead even at three games apiece. While this all sounds like we have a relatively even matchup on our hands for Friday, I feel it is anything but as the Nats send Gio Gonzalez to the bump against the struggling Tom Koehler for the Marlins. This one is all about the pitching matchup, plus Miami should definitely feel a little fortunate to be 18-15 given they've been outscored this year. Washington has the fourth best run differential in all of baseball.

Gonzalez has pitched better than his record (3-3 TSR) as he has a 2.19 ERA and 1.054 WHIP.  Here at home, both those numbers go down even further.  He is off his worst outing date, but that one was excusable as it came against the red hot Cubs.  The five runs he allowed at Wrigley were nearly equal to the total number of runs he'd allowed in his first five starts combined (6).   So tonight should be a good bounce back opportunity.  Of course, he's quite familiar with the Marlins, being that they are a division opponent, and since joining the Nats in 2012 his record here at home against them is 4-1 w/ a 1.64 ERA.  The Marlins averaged only three runs per game in the Milwaukee series.

Koehler has been a disaster on the road thus far with a 7.91 ERA and 2.123 WHIP.  Unlike Gonzalez, he is actually coming off his best start of the year, but that was against Philadelphia at home. So, as you can see, this is one of those great opportunities to "buy low" (w/ Gonzalez) and "sell high" (w/ Koehler) at the same time.  Three times Koehler has allowed 5+ runs this season and facing Bryce Harper has always been a problem for him.  Harper is 9 for 28 lifetime w/ six home runs vs. Koehler. That's his most HR's versus any pitcher.  8* Washington

8* Over Cardinals/Angels (10:05 ET):  The Cardinals are the third-highest scoring team in baseball to this point (5.5 runs per game) and figured to perform well offensively in this series w/ the addition of the DH to their lineup.  They've scored a total of 13 runs in a pair of wins thus far and when they go for the sweep tonight, they'll be facing a pitcher who has a 6.35 ERA and 1.765 WHIP his last three starts.  So, I'm pretty confident that we can count on them for this Over play.  Now we only need the Angels to start complying. The home team has scored just three runs in the series thus far, but I think they'll likely double that output here.

The last time that the Angels' Jered Weaver started on the road, he gave up seven runs in five innings.  It's even worse than it sounds too as that start came against Milwaukee, so it was in a NL park where he should have benefited from facing the pitcher.  But he obviously didn't and it ended up being his worst start to date.  Of course, pitching on the road has not been Weaver's forte ever since the start of last season. His road ERA of 6.01 last season was baseball's highest among qualified starters as batters hit .267 off him. It's also not a good sign that his fastball reportedly topped out at only 83 MPH his last time out.

St. Louis has made an overnight pitching change here, going w/ Adam Wainwright instead of Carlos Martinez.  That's just fine by me!  Wainwright hasn't been nearly as effective as Martinez this year and actually that's putting things quite mildly.  Wainwright has the worst ERA (6.30) and WHIP (1.50) in the Cardinals' starting rotation and that ERA is roughly four runs higher than Martinez's.  Wainwright has allowed at least 3 ER in every start, so there is hope for the Angels here.  He's also coming off his longest outing of the year (95 pitches), which was the first time all season where he did not walk a batter.  The first time through the lineup has been a major problem for Wainwright as he's allowed 11 first inning runs his L4 starts. Therefore, look for the Angels to put some runs on the board early and for this game to go Over the total - easily. 8* Over Cardinals/Angels

8* Under Padres/Brewers (8:10 ET):  San Diego has been shut out a MLB-high eight times, so when it comes to the total, the Under should always be your natural inclination. Today would also likely be a good time to "sell high" on the Padres seeing as they just swept a day-night doubleheader from the Cubs yday, clearly their crowning achievement of this still young season.  One of those victories (second game) came by a score of 1-0 with the two teams combining for only seven hits.  This game, like yday's, isn't at Petco Park where the Over was highly profitable in 2015.  They play a Milwaukee team that is off a 3-2 loss, so this series opener shapes up to be a low-scoring affair.

The Padres are actually 23rd in runs scored, which isn't good, but it's a higher ranking than what I expected. But they are also 25th in batting average, 28th in OBP and 27th in slugging. So they should probably feel a little fortunate to have scored as many runs as they have and we saw what happened last night after they'd put seven on the board in the first game of the twinbill.  I expect the San Diego lineup to struggle tonight against Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson, who has pitched very well in the past here at Miller Park where he's 7-2 w/ a 2.90 ERA in 12 outings. In his lone career home start vs. the Padres, he allowed just one run (was unearned) and three hits over 6 2/3 IP.  That game, a 4-1 Milwaukee win, easily stayed Under the total.

Nelson is due to bounce back from a poor outing his last time out (allowed six runs in 5 IP) where the team still won (13-7 at Cincinnati) as he had gone 4-1 w/ a 3.19 ERA in his first five starts. Also due for a bounce back performance is Padres starter James Shields, who matched a season-high w/ 4 ER allowed his last time out.  Shields had allowed just 2 ER (in 13 IP) his previous two turns in the rotation.   The issue for him is that the offense has not scored more than three runs in any of his starts this year, but that's not a problem for us, in fact it's what we're hoping for!  This will likely close as the highest O/U for any Padres game this season, so there's some clear value to be had. 8* Under Padres/Brewers

8* Boston (7:10 ET):  The Red Sox are coming off an incredibly successful series. I had them yday (13-3 win!) as they finished off a sweep of the A's, whom they outscored 40-15 over the course of the three games. Boston now owns an AL-best +48 run differential thanks to an offense that has caught the Cubs for most runs scored in all of baseball. Therefore, the fact that they are available at this price w/ David Price pitching seems to be a steal. Granted, Price has not pitched particularly well for his new team and will be opposed by Dallas Keuchel here. But I feel a rebound for Price is highly likely and last year's Cy Young winner (Keuchel) simply is not as effective on the road as he is at Minute Maid Park in Houston.

The Astros have been one of the real early season disappointments so far. Even after winning yday (took 16 innings!), their record still stands at just 14-21 and they've posted B2B victories just twice. Coming off a marathon game before traveling does them no favors for this series opener, especially considering they are just 4-10 on the road to begin with.  Shockingly, the team has lost each of Keuchel's last four starts, the last two coming at home where he was unbeaten all of last year.  In four road starts, he has a 5.84 ERA and 1.621 WHIP, which is clearly not good and here he'll be facing perhaps the hottest lineup in all of MLB (8.0 runs L7 games). Behind Keuchel is a bullpen that's really struggling. Houston relievers have posted a 6.45 ERA on the road thus far and that group is obviously taxed after yday.

With a lineup that's batting an incredible .336 over the last week, there's really no excuses here for Price, who needs to start justifying that large contract Boston gave him in the offseason.  He's coming off B2B outings where he allowed 6 ER, but both were against the Yankees, who are an opponent he always seems to struggle against.  Five of his six starts have been against AL East teams, who are the opponents most familiar with him. Still, Price has a winning TSR due to his prolific offense and I'm forecasting improvement for him as his 2.85 FIP is sixth best among American League starters and he's still striking out 11.54 K's per nine innings.  Houston is batting a collective .216 on the road this year. 8* Boston

8* Boston (7:10 ET):  The Red Sox appear to be "as good as advertised" this year as they are second in wins among American League clubs and first in run differential (+38).  They've won three straight, scoring 27 runs in this series alone and tonight look to finish off the sweep with Rick Porcello (0.958 WHIP) on the hill.  Offensively, this club is blowing away the rest of the field in the A.L as they've scored 183 runs, which is 23 more than the second best team. This shapes up as a total mismatch with an Oakland club that the Red Sox are 7-1 against since the start of last season.

The A's are trending in a very bad direction right now as they've lost eight of their last nine games and given up a total of 38 runs in the last three.  You certainly aren't going to win many games doing that and it certainly doesn't help that they are in the bottom half of the American League in runs scored anyway. Making matters worse here is that they'll be sending a starter with a 5.58 ERA and 1.913 WHIP to the hill. That would be Eric Surkamp, who is making his return to the big leagues after already being demoted to Triple A Nashville.  Having only once lasted longer than five innings (in four starts), this is probably not the most desirable spot for Surkamp to rejoin the rotation.

Meanwhile, Boston has Porcello, who is having a great 2016.  He is coming off five consecutive quality starts and ranks in the top 10 in KW ratio w/ a 5.13.  He's been lights out here at Fenway (0.787 WHIP) and his last time starting here he delivered seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball.  Backed by the American League's best offense, I see no reason why Porcello won't be dominant again here as batters are hitting just .111 against his change-up and .190 against his slider.   8* Boston

8* Run Line Detroit (7:05 ET):  Please note that this a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5.  I actually played Washington in the season opener here (w/ Strasburg on the mound) and while I won that selection, note the game was decided by a one-run margin and the Nationals had to rally back from an early 4-1 hole before winning in walk-off fashion. It was another one-run game yday, this one going Detroit's way however, as the game was essentially decided on a replay call.  Tonight, the Tigers will be sending Jordan Zimmerman out to the hill and he's quite familiar w/ the Nats being that he played for them the last seven seasons. I feel the road team will do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Zimmerman will face his former teammate and friend Max Scherzer here.  While that sounds like an elite pitching matchup, Zimmerman is clearly having the better season of the two so far.  He comes in with a 5-1 record, 1.10 ERA and 1.049 WHIP.  That ERA is currently the best in baseball among qualified starters.  Last time out, Zimmerman did give up a season high 3 ER and lost for the first time, opposite Cole Hamels.  But consider that was more earned runs allowed than what he'd given up in his first five starts - combined. Obviously, Zimmerman should feel comfortable pitching in this environment given how many times he's pitched here before. There's also the fact that he's 3-0 w/ a 0.47 ERA in three road starts so far.

The season is still young, but Scherzer is off to a poor start that has him posting some of the worst numbers in his career.  He has a 4.60 ERA and has already given up nine home runs.  He was shelled for seven runs, and allowed four of those homers, his last time out.   Though the Tigers had lost seven straight games going into yday, they're a better team than that and I would not be the least bit surprised to see them come away with the victory here.  8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

8* Texas (2:05 ET):  The Rangers rallied back from a five-run deficit to stun the White Sox last night, scoring seven runs in the bottom of the eighth to earn themselves a 13-11 victory. With the quick turnaround between games, I certainly believe that it's "advantage home team" here as the two play the rubber match of the three-game set. We all know that Chicago has enjoyed tremendous success so far in 2016, but perhaps it's time to "pump the breaks" a little bit on them.  Before last night, White Sox pitching had been otherworldly in the late innings w/ a lead, so something like that was bound to happen. Today, I think that for once the starting pitching matchup will NOT be in the Sox favor. 

Mat Latos, who turned in a 4.95 ERA last season playing for three different teams, is one of four pitchers who currently is unbeaten with a TSR of 6-0 or better. The other three names on the list should all sound familiar: Arrieta, Sale, Strasburg.  You'll note that Chicago has two of the four pitchers in its rotation, so that certainly helps explain this fast start of theirs. But Latos is certainly an outlier and has shown signs of regression in his previous two outings by giving up 4 ER each time (in just 10 total IP) and three home runs.  The offense has been able to bail him out, but that will be a lot tougher to do here with Cole Hamels pitching for the Rangers.

Hamels is also unbeaten in six starts (4-0), though his TSR is 5-1.  His numbers are basically identical to Latos (2.68 ERA, 1.216 WHIP), the only difference being that Hamels is coming off an outstanding outing, one where he gave up only one hit in seven scoreless innings at Detroit.  Texas is quietly putting together a nice little season so far (19-15, +13 run differential) and earlier I mentioned the benefit of being the home team with this quick turnaround between games. Well, the Rangers record as home favorites in the -125 to -150 price range is 3-0 this season and 18-9 the L3 seasons.  Offensively, this team has also scored eight or more runs in three of its last four games.  8* Texas

10* NY Mets (10:10 ET):  This series is a battle of two teams that came into 2016 w/ legit World Series aspirations, but so far the Mets have proven themselves to be the better ballclub. Not only did they just beat the Dodgers last night, 4-2, but they are 20-11 on the year w/ a +44 run differential that is second best in all of baseball (though way behind the record-setting Cubs). Meanwhile, Los Angeles is just a .500 team (though +12 in run differential).  Having to face Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda the next two days, I believe it is imperative that the Mets take advantage of the edge they'll have in starting pitching tonight.

  Remember that the Mets eliminated the Dodgers in LY's playoffs.  Jacob de Grom won two of the three games for his team in that series and will be the one getting the baseball tonight.  In those two playoff victories, de Grom allowed just 2 ER in 13 IP and it's important to note both outings took place here at Chavez Ravine.  Predictably, de Grom is off to a fine beginning to 2016 w/ a 1.99 ERA in four starts, though he did take a surprising loss to the Padres his last time out. I expect him to bounce back here, however, as he has a 1.01 career WHIP vs. the Dodgers. 

   Dodgers starter Alex Wood gave up three home runs to a pretty light-hitting Rays lineup his last time out, so that certainly doesn't bode well when facing a Mets team that actually led the NL last year in runs scored on the road.  Sure enough, the reigning Senior Circuit champs are averaging more runs per game on the road than at home this year (4.7) and that's a big reason why they are 11-5 outside of Citi Field.   Not only are the Dodgers just 5-9 at home this year, but they are 0-4 when the money line is -100 to -125, dropping them to 6-17 in that price range the L3 seasons.  10* NY Mets

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET):  If you got a chance to check out my analysis from Sunday, then you know that I'm not very high on the Angels this season. I'd said that before and in fact at the outset of the season I called for a last place finish in the American League West. Sure enough, they got swept by the Rays here at home over the weekend and now find themselves five games under .500 with a -17 run differential.  But they have been pretty good in games when Hector Santiago has toed the rubber (5-1 record) and I see them putting an end to this home losing streak of theirs tonight against a St. Louis team that just has the feel of being pretty unlucky this year.

  The Cardinals have a .500 record, but are +40 in run differential. Normally, this would lead me to believe the a long win streak might soon be forthcoming, but something tells me that this club is going to pay for the last several years of overachieving.  We've come to expect the Redbirds being one of the best teams in baseball year in and year out, but in 2016 they just don't look as good on paper. One key has been they have gone from #1 in runs allowed in 2015 to a middle of the pack ranking this year. Tonight's starter Mike Leake, acquired in the offseason, has certainly played a significant role in that as he's posted a 6.03 ERA in six starts. Still winless, Leake allowed at least four runs in every start this year. His record in Interleague Play is poor (1-5, 7.44 ERA L8 starts), particularly on the road where he is winless.

As mentioned earlier, Santiago has offered a "ray of hope" for an injury-ravaged Angels club. Not only is his team start record 5-1 this season, but going back to the start of September, the team is 11-1 the L12 times he's been on the mound.  That includes five straight wins at home where he's posted a 2.69 ERA his L19 starts.  Santiago has a 1.00 WHIP in his two home starts this year and provided he gets the requisite amount of help from his offense, I see no reason why the Halos (who are favored to win tonight) don't get the job done.  10* LA Angels

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET):  The Braves are the worst team in baseball (both in terms of record & run differential) and this will be just the second time all season that they have been favored on the money (lost 4-2 to Arizona on Saturday as -120 faves). They are an ungodly 1-15 here at Turner Field as well. But they keys to this somewhat unusual selection are that they have a starter who has actually looked very good in 2016 (despite having a 1-4 team start record) and that the opponent has been overachieving to such a degree that soon regression is inevitable.  I'll step out on a limb here and call for a rare Atlanta victory. 

  Starting tonight for the home team will be Matt Wisler (0.928 WHIP), who as you can tell is absolutely deserving of a better WL record. He finally got his first win last Tuesday, as a +205 ML dog no less. That came opposite Matt Harvey as Wisler tossed an absolute gem, holding the Mets to just one hit over eight scoreless innings..  Opponents are now hitting only .175 against Wisler for the season, which is the sixth lowest batting average allowed by any pitcher in all of baseball!  Something else to consider here is that he's working on 6+ days rest and in the past that's been very advantageous for him.  In five career starts w/ that much rest, he's 4-0 w/ a 2.52 ERA.

  Philadelphia is somehow 18-14 despite a -27 run differential. In addition to scoring only 104 runs in 32 games, they have a .227 team batting average and .643 OPS. Atlanta is the only team worse than them in those three categories, but the key for the Phillies has been "luck" as in a MLB-best 11-3 record in one-run games.  That won't continue forever and, in fact, I expect the record to start regressing to the mean very shortly.  While the Braves might have the terrible home record, they did go 7-2 against the Phils here last season.  Phillies starter Adam Morgan has a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP after two starts which have seen him give up six runs and 11 hits in only nine innings of work.  This is one of the few games  - and series for that matter - that on paper the Braves have a good chance at winning.  10* Atlanta

10* Toronto (10:15 ET): Safe to say that the Blue Jays and Giants, two teams that have World Series aspirations, aren't where they thought they'd be in the standings at this juncture of the season.  I think Toronto has been a little more "unlucky" as they have a +11 run differential despite being a game under .500. Meanwhile, 17-16 San Francisco is just +1, so their differential is actually a more accurate representation of how they've played.  While a play on the Jays typically revolves around a discussion of their offense, here it is a case of them having a clear advantage in the starting pitching department.  They may have let me down yday, but I'm back on MLB's Canadian contingent again.

Aaron Sanchez has made one bad start this season (4.22 vs. Oakland), but other than that he's been very good.  That's especially true on the road where he has a 0.86 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in three tries.  Two of those have come at Tampa Bay, but the other was at Boston (AL leader in runs scored) and he's allowed a grand total of two runs in 21 IP on just 13 hits. Remember that here he has the advantage of getting to face the pitcher.  Toronto has typically done well for itself in Interleague Play as they sport a 26-16 record vs. the NL since the start of the 2014 season.

I was somewhat shocked to see the Giants have to settle for a split - here at home - against the Rockies over the weekend. After a 2-1 win on Saturday (game went 13 innings), they were actually shut out on Sunday, 2-0. So that's B2B games where the offense failed to score in nine innings and that does not bode well as they have to give the baseball to Jake Peavy tonight.  Peavy has been truly wretched in his six starts so far, posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.897 WHIP.  He's allowed as many runs in his L2 starts as Sanchez has all season.  Yes, Toronto loses the DH from its lineup, but they are still strong enough to take advantage of Peavy's season-long struggles, which include him giving up seven runs and four HR's to a terrible Cincinnati team his last time out.  10* Toronto

8* Seattle (10:10 ET):  Seeing Felix Hernandez with only a 3-3 team start record and available at this price, at home, both seem pretty odd.  So I'll definitely "buy low" on King Felix here as the Mariners are a team more people should be talking about given their +26 run differential, which is currently second best in the entire American League.  I took Tampa Bay yday as they finished off a sweep of the downtrodden Angels, but I'm interested to see how they perform now that they're above .500 for the first time all year. My guess is that it's time to "sell high" on them.

This will be just the third time that Hernandez has gotten to pitch at home.  The previous two times have seen him not give up a single run (only eight hits allowed) in 14+ IP.  Now, he is coming off - easily - his worst start of 2016 to date as he allowed eight runs (four unearned) at Oakland last Wednesday.  But also consider that was more runs than he allowed in his previous five starts combined.  He'd allowed 1 or 0 earned runs in four of those first five starts.  This should be a good matchup for him as the Rays are tied for 27th in runs scored (third fewest) in all of baseball.  In 15 career starts vs. TB, Hernandez is 7-2 w/ a 1.90 ERA and that includes a perfect 6-0 in the 10 that have come at home (10-0 team start record). 

The Rays will have to lean on Matt Moore in this one and the problem with that is he's 0-3 his last three starts and was also shelled his last time out.  The Dodgers touched him up for seven runs in just 4 1/3 innings and there's now been only one start all year where Moore didn't give up a home run. That's bad news when getting set to face a hitter the likes of Robinson Cano (AL's home run leader), who is batting .514 the last eight games with four HR's.  The Mariners' offense - as a whole - underperformed the L3 days, but I see them turning it around tonight at Safeco Field where they are due to break out (just 5-7 at home so far). 8* Seattle

5* Washington (7:05 ET):  Both of these teams experienced rather dreadful weekends, but the Nationals at least have the "built-in" excuse that they had to play the Cubs, at Wrigley no less.  It's the Tigers that are really reeling here as they've now dropped six in a row after being swept by both the Indians and Rangers. In fact, they've now been swept in three of their past five series!  The juice on the Nats is pretty high here, but deservingly so, as they are back in the Beltway and have Stephen Strasburg on the bump. They are a perfect 6-0 in Strasburg starts thus far including a 13-2 win his last time out.

Detroit has scored a grand total of 16 runs during its six-game skid. Therefore, losing the DH spot (NL park) in the lineup certainly does them no favors for this series. Strasburg has posted a 2.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his six starts and only once has he allowed more than two runs.  His KW ratio is a phenomenal 36-3 his L4 starts, which is what we've always expected to see from him. I'm a little surprised to find that Detroit is 5-1 in Interleague Play with four of those games coming in NL parks. But the offense was in a much better place back then compared to now. Washington is also 5-1 in Interleague Play this season and that included taking two of three in Kansas City last week, one of those wins coming in Strasburg's last start (allowed two runs & five hits in 6 IP).

Not only has Detroit not scored much during its losing streak, but they've also allowed 43 runs, an average of slightly more than seven per game.  Tonight's starter Anibal Sanchez figures to significantly add to that total as he comes in w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP his L3 turns. Those numbers are a tad bit skewed due to one disastrous outing vs. Cleveland on April 23rd, but then he allowed four more runs to the Indians on Wednesday. In between, he managed to pick up a win over Oakland, but even then he issued a frightening number of walks (seven!).  It's not like the Nats' were hurting for offense against the Cubs as they totaled 14 runs and yday they took MLB's best team to 13 innings. Strasburg has not lost in his last six interleague starts.  5* Washington

THIS PLAY IS ON THE RAYS. Incorrectly Entered Above.

10* Tampa Bay (3:35 ET):   This is a great price on the Rays, who are underdogs despite beating the Angels each of the last two days.  There isn’t a single pitcher in the Halos rotation that dictates they should be favored on the money line in any situation, least of all the struggling Nick Tropeano, and as I’ve said before I’m just not very high on this ball club in 2016.  Tampa Bay has had its issues scoring runs so far this season, but they’ve allowed only four in this series and thus I have them finishing off the sweep.

Tropeano hasn’t only been bad, he’s been inefficient to boot. He’s thrown at least 89 pitches in every start this season despite never making it past the 5 1/3 inning mark.  His last time out, he gave up five runs in exactly five innings and while that was on only five hits, he also issued five walks.  He also allowed three home runs and keep in mind this was facing a very bad Milwaukee lineup. Tropeano now has a 1.633 WHIP for the season, which quite frankly is pretty lousy.  Speaking of lousy, the Angels are bottom five in the AL in run differential currently (-15) and have lost six of their last eight games overall.

The Rays counter with Matt Andriese, who will be making his 2016 debut. He definitely looked good down at Triple-A Indianapolis, most notably five days ago when he struck out 14 batters.  Starting him in this spot is a wise decision by Rays skipper Kevin Cash as the Angels really seem to struggle against right-handers more so than southpaws.  Their slash line vs. righties so far is .239/.303/.360 with all three categories down from where they’re at against lefties.  Andriese has big league experience having made eight starts last year (posted 3.57 ERA).  Tampa Bay has beaten the Angels head to head in five of the past seven meetings.  10* Tampa Bay

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Please note that this is a Run Line play only where I am LAYING the 1.5. Getting the Cubs basically at even money is a steal these days, even if you have to go -1.5.  They won again yday, 8-5, which was their sixth consecutive victory. They are now 23-6 with an astronomical run differential of +101.  That is the greatest run differential for any team in the World Series era (which goes back quite a ways!) That means they are outscoring opponents by an average of roughly 3.5 runs per game, which would work out to a YTD run differential of +564!  The money line is obviously far too high for my tastes, but I’m confident the Cubs win big again this afternoon and am willing to go the RL route. 

By the way, Jake Arrieta will be pitching today.  He’s 6-0 in his six starts and shown zero signs of regression from LY’s Cy Young campaign. He has a 0.84 ERA and 0.774 WHIP and has allowed just ONE run over his last four starts. The Cubs have outscored opponents 52-8 w/ Arrieta on the hill (that’s insane!), so you can see why I’m willing to play the run line here.  The narrowest margin of victory has been four runs and over the L3 starts (which includes his no-hitter) the combined margin of victory has been 27 runs!  Over his L19 starts, Arrieta is now 17-0 with a 0.66 ERA his L19 starts overall (19-0 TSR) and all of those have been quality.

If facing Arrieta wasn’t difficult enough, the Nationals must also deal with a Cubs offense that’s averaging 6.2 rpg to pace all of baseball.  The Cubs lineup has put eight runs on the board in each of the first two games of this series and considering how Tanner Roark has looked in both of his road starts, he’s likely in trouble here.  Roark has a 4.73 ERA on the road and that’s after only having to deal with Miami and Kansas City, two relatively weak lineups.  When speaking of the money line, this price range may not be unprecedented for the Nationals, but it is rare. Nevertheless, they have been a ML dog of +175 or higher six times the L3 seasons and lost all six games.  8* Run Line Chi Cubs (-1.5)

8* Toronto (1:07 ET):  Before losing yday to Clayton Kershaw, the Blue Jays had been coming on strong of late (had won each of the previous four days). Their +13 run differential is fifth best in the American League right now and indicative of the fact they probably should be better than just .500 for the year. I like their chances today w/ Marco Estrada on the bump as his overall numbers show he’s deserving of far better than a 2-3 team start record to this point. Furthermore, the Dodgers counter with Ross Stripling, who has been ineffective of late to say the least. Look for Toronto to win this Interleague series.

Estrada comes in with a 2.64 ERA and 1.174 WHIP overall.  Three of his five starts have come here at home where he’s been even better, posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.864 WHIP.  The team has won two of those three, including a 3-1 decision earlier in the week (Tuesday) where Estrada allowed just one run on two hits over 6 IP.  His strikeout number (3) wasn’t very good, but at least the number of walks were down (8 BB’s prev two starts).  It’s pretty remarkable that an offense as good as this one (led MLB in runs scored – by a mile – last year) has yet to score more than three runs in any Estrada start this year. I expect that to change after today and thus we should be in very good shape.

Stripling has a 6.58 ERA and 2.048 WHIP his L3 starts after allowing five runs on seven hits in just 4 2/3 innings his last time out.  He’s failed to make it past the 5 1/3 inning mark in each of those last three starts and what’s really troubling about that is the fact he’s gotten to face some of the weakest lineups in the game (SD, Miami and Atlanta) during that time. Prior to winning yday, the Dodgers had won just 2 of their previous 10 games.  Starting rotation depth was a major problem for Los Angeles last season as Kershaw and Zack Greinke had to carry them.  Greinke is now gone and Kershaw can’t pitch every day. For what it’s worth, the Blue Jays are a perfect 5-0 on Sundays this year.  8* Toronto

6* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET):  The White Sox, as expected, took care of business last night against the sorry Twins.  They won the season opener, 10-4, which means they’re now a perfect 4-0 this season against their division rival.  This series now shapes up as a battle of teams with the best and worst run differentials in the American League (it goes w/o saying “who’s who”), so it’s a complete mismatch already and with Chris Sale toeing the rubber for the home team, I actually think the ML for today’s game is absurdly low. Certainly, the linesmakers opened it way too low as it’s been pounded by just about everybody since. This is one instance where I certainly am willing to go along with the majority.

Sale has already established himself as the early front runner from the AL Cy Young award.  Through six starts, he’s a perfect 6-0 and he’s posted an ERA of 1.66 and a WHIP of 0.808.  Last time out was actually his shortest start of the season (just 5 1/3 IP) as he did experience some control issues (four walks), but I would not be the least bit concerned even though the Twins have surprisingly had his number in the past. Sale still allowed only the one run vs. Baltimore on Sunday & over his last four starts, he’s given up just two runs total – in 29 1/3 innings of work. 

The Twins are just 4-16 off a loss this year and they come into tonight off a pair of bad ones, first 16-4 at Houston and then 10-4 last night. That drops them to just 2-13 on the road as the only team with a worse run differential and record is Atlanta.  As if facing Sale wasn’t bad enough, the Twins will also then have to deal with a White Sox bullpen which is currently leading all of MLB. Overall, Chicago pitchers have an absurd 0.35 ERA in the seventh inning or later when leading and are a perfect 20-0.  Minnesota was a lucky team last year, but clearly regressing. Meanwhile, it appears as if this could turn into a special season on both sides of the Windy City.  6* Chi White Sox

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET):   This season, there is a giant chasm that exists between the “have’s” and “have not’s” in the National League. It’s something that I’ve previously brought to the attention of my regular readers/clients and we can take advantage of it again today. Basically, coming into the year there were seven supposed playoff contenders (Nats, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, Cards, Dodgers and Giants). Everyone else, save for maybe Miami and Arizona, was projected to be pretty bad. Until further notice, I’m going to look to exploit this disparity any time I can.  The Giants beat the Rockies pretty easily last night and I see no reason why they won’t do the same here again Saturday afternoon.

Colorado scored the game’s first four runs yday, but after that it was all Giants, including a quick answer of three runs of their own in the bottom of the second.  That was a strong bounce back after the rather shocking result Thursday provided, that being a 17-7 Colorado victory here at AT&T Park. I fully expect the home team to control the remainder of this series as you have to remember that the Rockies are traditionally a dreadful road team, one that has gone a woeful 63-117 since the start of the 2014 season. The fact they’ve started 2016 by winning 10 of their first 17 away from hitter-friendly Coors Field is not something that I’m “buying into.”  

Johnny Cueto gives his team a significant advantage coming into this afternoon’s game.  I say that even though he struggled his last time out (had one bad inning), against his former team, the Reds. But the Giants still won the game and are now 5-1 in Cueto starts. Something to keep in mind is that aside from two innings that didn’t go his way, Cueto has allowed only six runs in 40 1/3 IP this year. Aside from the somewhat disastrous third inning vs. Cincinnati, he was actually quite good as he got 15 batters to swing and miss and induced seven groundouts. He’s 4-2 in eight career starts vs. the Rockies.  Meanwhile, I wouldn’t be very comfortable in backing Jonathan Gray, who is today’s starter for Colorado, as he’s been hit up pretty hard despite impressive looking strikeout numbers in three starts (7.98 ERA, 1.636 WHIP).  8* San Francisco

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET):  The Tribe comes into this series riding high following their second sweep of Detroit this season. They are now a game above .500 and their +18 run differential (4th best in the American League) indicates that they probably should have won even more games to this point. Meanwhile, division rival Kansas City is also a game above .500, but they have been outscored by 13 runs thus far, a major difference. The defending World Series Champs simply have not been playing good baseball of late as they've dropped seven of nine and the last time we saw them (Wednesday), they were on the wrong end of a 13-2 beatdown.  Truth be told, the Royals' early-season struggles are not a surprise as I expected them to regress thsi season.

What is a bit of a surprise is the fact that KC is among the bottom five in all of MLB when it comes to runs scored.  They've averaged just 2.1 rpg over the last seven days. Typically, this had been a great on base percentage team for manager Ned Yost, but they're way down in that department this season (.301) and they have five regulars that are below that team OBP average. All this is not a good sign when getting set to face the Indians' Danny Salazar, who has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season and carries a 0.967 WHIP into tonight's contest.  Opponents are batting just .139 against him so far, which is the lowest average in all of MLB! 

Pitching has also been a problem of late for the Royals as they've given up a total of 19 runs the last two games.  Tonight's starter, Yordano Ventura, allowed five runs in just four innings his last time out and certainly didn't help himself by issuing six walks either.  The offense was shutout in that game anway, one of three times that's happened over the L6 games, by the way.  Cleveland is just the better team at this point, even more so than the money line would seem to indicate.  Over the L3 seasons, the Royals are just 13-23 as ML road dogs of +125 to +150, including 0-3 this year. 8* Cleveland

8* Detroit (7:10 ET):  The Tigers are just happy to have escaped Cleveland where they were swept for a second time by the division rival Indians this season. They actually came into that last series on a five-game win streak, which I think is important to remember when assessing the team. The next opponent, Texas, also has lost its last three games - all up in Toronto including yday when they were bludgeoned to the tune of 12-2.  With neither team in fine form coming into this series opener, I instead turn to the starting pitching matchup and while the Rangers may have Cole Hamels going, Detroit counters with the red-hot Jordan Zimmerman, who has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball to this point.

Zimmerman has won all five starts and has done so while posting a 0.55 ERA and 1.061 WHIP. Only two pitchers in history have started a season with a lower ERA in their first five starts as he's allowed just four runs in 33 IP and two of them were unearned.  His YTD KW rate might not be outstanding, but it was 7-0 in his last start.  Texas has been held to a total of eight runs in its last four games, so Zimmerman is the last pitcher they probably want to see right now.  This will be the first time that a lot of the Rangers hitters have even seen him.

Hamels has remained successful of late (2-1 TSR L3 starts) in spite of a couple bad outings, one of them coming his last time out.  The Rangers lost that one, 9-6 to the Angels, as Hamels allowed four runs in 5 IP and also walked four batters.  His 1.647 WHIP over his last three starts is simply not good and the margin for error here facing Zimmerman is razor thin.  Texas is just 5-9 on the road thus far and like Detroit saw their run differential take a major hit in the last series.  Homefield and Zimmerman are the difference makers in this one. 8* Detroit

9* Washington (2:20 ET): Given their current record (21-6) and otherworldly run differential (+96), betting against the Cubs right now might seem like a bad idea.  However, as this afternoon's money line indicates, this figures to be one of their stiffest tests in some time as Washington (#2 in MLB in run differential) is in town and has Max Scherzer going on the bump.  In four road starts so far, Scherzer has a 0.962 WHIP and he is coming off an outing where he tossed seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball (9-0 KW ratio) at St. Louis.  Also, the Cubs have not exactly "cleaned up" in day games this year as they're record is just 6-4. The Nats are the ones being undervalued here.

Washington was limited to only three hits last night and scored both of its runs in the ninth inning.  That's a far cry from what we saw from this offense on Wednesday when they pounded out 16 hits in a 13-2 dismantling of the Royals.  Here they face John Lackey, who has a subpar 4.32 ERA, although I concede that his WHIP (1.110) indicates that he's probably pitched better than that. Still though, the Cubs have lost each of Lackey's last two starts and those games were against Atlanta and Cincinnati, arguably the two weakest teams in all of baseball. The lineup he faces today is averaging 5.1 rpg on the road and for all the talk about the Cubs incredible start, the Nats are only 2.5 games behind them in the standings.

Scherzer has a 1.42 ERA against the Cubs in three career starts, all of them coming here at Wrigley. One key to today's game is that the Cubs hottest hitter, Ben Zobrist, is just 3 for 20 all-time against him.  Washington is also 8-4 in day games so far.  That's a better mark than the Cubs, who at some point will see their record setting pace of outscoring opponents slow down. Interestingly enough, Chicago is just 4-3 this season when coming into a game on a three-game win streak.  They are due to drop one and this is a great price on the usually heavily favored Scherzer (was -170 or higher on the ML each of his first five starts). 9* Washington

8* NY Mets (10:10 ET):  I will continue to harp on the massive chasm that exists between the have's and have not's in the National League. This year's Senior Circuit can essentially be broken down into two very distinct groups. One is the seven legit playoff contenders (Nats, Mets, Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Dodgers and Giants).   The second group is everybody else. Maybe one team from the also-ran group will eventually "step up," but I highly doubt it's going to be the lowly Padres, a team that carries with it very little promise for the future.  The Mets, meanwhile, have won 8 of 10 and have the third best run differential in baseball. This series, like so many we're going to see in the NL this year, shapes up as a mismatch.

Jacob DeGrom starting tonight for the Mets only serves to further tilt things in his team's favor. In three starts thus far, he has a 1.02 ERA and 1.075 WHIP.  The Mets have also won all three games.  Last time out, four walks played a role in him allowing a season-high three runs, all unearned.  The first two starts were against two of those bad teams that the NL has to offer, Atlanta and Philadelphia, and he allowed only 1 ER to both.  DeGrom has pitched once before here at Petco Park (which is typically pitcher-friendly) and he delivered eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball (8-0 KW ratio).  San Diego has already been shut out eight times this season, easily the most times in all of baseball, including a 2-0 loss yday when they were held to three hits. In fact, no other team has been shut out more than four times!

The Mets are also swinging the bats quite well of late w/ 89 runs scored during a 13-3 stretch where they've managed to win six consecutive series. This combination of hot hitting and outstanding starting pitching makes this a difficult team to beat, especially when the opponent is sending out a hurler the likes of Colin Rea, who has a 1.557 WHIP thus far.  The Mets offense was one of the best in baseball last year in runs scored per game on the road and they've continued that trend into 2016 as they are averaging a healthy 5.4 runs per game away from Citi Field.  8* NY Mets

8* St. Louis (1:40 ET):  It has been quite the frustrating season, thus far, for the Redbirds.  Even though their run differential of +41 is the fourth best in the sport, the club finds itself at just 14-14 in the standings, which is positively mediocre. Might this be the year that "lady luck" simply isn't on St. Louis' side? Maybe, but I'm certainly not going to start writing them off in May, especially when they're paired up against the overachieving Phillies, who are 16-12 on the season yet have a run differential of -23. I specifically cited the respective run differentials as a reason to play the Cardinals in Monday's series opener, which they won, and since then the teams have exchanged one-run victories. I liked the Cards to win this series before it started and I haven't changed my mind.

Last night, it was St. Louis rallying back for a much-needed 5-4 victory. They scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth w/ Matt Holliday providing the walk-off heroics. The previous day had seen them lose 1-0 after they took the series opener (the game I played) in dominant fashion, 10-3.  Note that the Phillies' last four victories have all come by one run margins. When I refer to them as "lucky," I'm speaking of all these close wins, of which they have NINE (easily the most one-run victories in all of MLB) against just three losses.  Clearly, if you see a team w/ a 16-12 record, you wouldn't expect them to have been outscored by 23 runs on the season. But that's where we're at with the Phillies right now and I am of the belief that their "luck" will start to run out moving forward. We saw some of that just last night!

As for this afternoon's pitching matchup, I like the numbers that I see from Cards lefty Jaime Garcia, who has a 2.66 ERA and a 0.866 WHIP in three starts at Busch Stadium.  His last couple starts have been less than ideal, but I see him bouncing back here against a lineup which is hitting just .217 its last seven games. The Phils counter w/ Jerad Eickhoff, who really has had only the one bad start, but that happened to be his last one on the road as he gave up seven runs in just 5 1/3 IP and that was against Milwaukee.  Forget the records, St. Louis is the much better team here. 8* St. Louis

8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET):  Before losing last night, the Rays had won seven straight times against the National League, which was the longest active win streak in Interleague Play. With this being just a short two-game series, the home team has to take advantage of the fact that they avoid both studs in the Dodgers rotation - Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda.  I will call for them to salvage a split as LA may have scored 10 runs last night, but that was only after scoring all of 12 the previous seven games combined. I like what I've seen thus far from Rays starter Drew Smyly, despite his 2-3 team start record, as his WHIP is an eye-popping 0.692! That's the best WHIP in all of baseball among qualifiers!  Take the Rays.

It's pretty astounding that a pitcher could be leading all of baseball in WHIP, yet have a losing team start record.  Yet that's where we're at w/ Smyly right now. His first start of the season, admittedly, was not good. But he's allowed three or fewer hits in three of his last four starts while posting a 36-5 KW ratio.  Last time out, Smyly was a bit of a hard-luck loser as he gave up just two runs on two hits (both solo HR's) in 6 IP.   Keep in mind that he had not allowed any home runs in his previous three starts. Still though, despite the pair of mistakes, 63 of his 99 pitches went for strikes and 15 of those were swings and misses. He'd allowed just one run and seven hits (in 15 IP) his two starts prior, both of which did result in Tampa Bay victories.

Smyly will obviously need some run support and I anticipate the Rays offense "turning a corner" tonight after going a woeful 5 of 41 with RISP the L6 games.  Scoring five times yday was a "step in the right direction" and they should be able to build off that tonight against Alex Wood, who has an 8.36 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in three road starts. Wood was better his last time out, but that came against light-hitting San Diego at home.  He's allowed at least five runs in all three road starts, while never making it past the fifth inning.  The Rays haven't been able to do too much damage against left-handed starters so far, but this is arguably the weakest southpaw they will have seen to date.  8* Tampa Bay

8* Toronto (7:07 ET):  This series is of course a rematch from last year's ALDS which featured one of the great games of 2015 (Bautista bat flip). So far, 2016 has not gone as well for the Blue Jays as 2015 did, but remember they got off to a slow start last season as well. Offense is down for last year's AL East champs, but they did pick up a 3-1 win yday at the Rangers expense. After being held to just four runs in the first two games of this series, don't be surprised if the Blue Jays' bats break out tonight against Colby Lewis, who has been giving up his fair share of baserunners this season (1.452 WHIP). Meanwhile, I like Aaron Sanchez starting for Toronto as he's turned in four quality starts thus far despite a 2-3 TSR.

Sanchez turned in his best effort to date on Friday w/ seven scoreless innings of six-hit ball at Tampa Bay. Toronto won that game 6-1. Sanchez did not fare nearly as well his last time starting here at Rogers Centre, but prior to that had given up just 1 ER in each of his first three outings.  A key here could be that the Rangers have never faced Sanchez before.  The only run Texas scored yday came on a leadoff home run and after that they managed just five hits even with the additional inning.  They scored only two runs (but did win) in Monday's series opener, so offense has been virtually non-existent for the road team in this series. The Rangers have been held to four runs or less in 7 of their last 10 ballgames.

Now, Toronto had been blanked until the ninth inning yday, which is when Justin Smoak tied the game w/ a HR and then he won it w/ another in the 10th. The team certainly had their chances to score more last night, but was 0 for 9 w/ RISP.   History though, looks to be on their side tonight as they face Lewis, who is 3-6 w/ a 6.97 ERA in 11 career starts against the Jays.  Lewis hasn't really given up that many runs so far this season, but he's allowed at least six hits in four of his five starts. He also has walked 10 batters in 31 IP. While he didn't walk anyone his last time out, he didn't strike anybody out either. It's only a matter of time before the Blue Jays break out offensively and I feel that time will be tonight! 8* Toronto

8* LA Angels (1:40 ET):  The Angels are a team that I'm not particularly high on for 2016, but then again the same could certainly be said for Milwaukee, whom just about everyone expects to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball this season.  The Brewers certainly haven't "disappointed" as they have the third worst run differential (-35), ahead of only Atlanta and Cincinnati. That being said, the club has actually now won three straight, including the first two games of this three-game set. But I just can't see them finishing off the sweep and it's probably a great time to "sell high" on the Brew Crew as they send the struggling Zach Davies to the mound.  Go with the Angels this afternoon.

Davies (8.78 ERA, 2.251 WHIP) has made three starts so far and none of them have been good.  He's allowed at least four runs every time out and the longest he's lasted in any outing is six innings.  Milwaukee has lost all three games by a combined score of 20-8. Incredibly, opposing hitters are batting .411 against Davies. Almost as bad as that is the fact that in his last time out only 54 of his 92 pitches were strikes.  Hector Santiago didn't exactly "light the world on fire" his last time out for the Angels (gave up 4 ER himself), but he still owns a 4-1 team start record and a 1.051 WHIP. Something to make note of is that three of the four runs Santiago allowed last Friday came with two outs in the sixth. He'd been pitching just fine to that point, save for giving up a solo home run. The Angels should have the edge in starting pitching in this one.

Last night saw the Angels get off to a hot start (led 4-0) and they finished the game with more hits than the Brewers.  That was the second time in the last five games that they lost a game in which they had more hits than their opponent.  As a team, they're batting a collective .304 the L7 games, so if Santiago can get them a quality start, they should be in good shape. By the way, Milwaukee has a terrible bullpen, one that sports a 1.694 WHIP.  Win streaks should be few and far between for the Brewers this season and I don't see the current one continuing.  8* LA Angels

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET):  I had the Cardinals yesterday and my reasoning for taking them today will essentially be the same.  Yes, the Phillies came into this series riding a six-game win streak (swept both the Nationals and Indians) and actually had a better record compared to St. Louis. But, as I pointed out yesterday, the respective run differentials of these two teams tells a much different story.  St. Louis, though only .500 in the standings, actually sports the second best run differential (+41) in all of baseball after yday's 10-3 victory. Meanwhile, that very result dropped Philadelphia's YTD run differential to -23, a strong indicator that this 15-11 record of theirs is a bit of a mirage.  Based on those numbers, I expect today's game to go the same way as Monday.

The Phillies actually jumped out to a 3-0 lead last night, which had me worried for a bit, but the Cardinals then responded with five home runs en route to a convincing victory.  One of those long balls came from the pitcher, Adam Wainwright and the sixth, seventh and eighth spot in the order all homered as well.  St. Louis continues to lead the league in offense as they are averaging almost six full runs per game.  The massive discrepancy in runs scored between these two ballclubs is something I pointed out in yday's analysis and I'll reiterate it here.  The Phillies are bottom five in baseball in runs scored and despite playing the same number of games as the Cardinals (26), they've totaled just a little over half the number of runs (153 vs. 80).  That's a very significant gap.

I do have to say that while the Phils have certainly overachieved to this point, that hasn't helped starter Aaron Nola, who has a 0.879 WHIP in five starts, yet is only 1-2.  Nola did have one bad start (allowed 7 ER vs Washington on 4.16) though and this clearly will be the toughest lineup he's faced to date.  St. Louis goes w/ Michael Wacha in this spot and in his two home starts thus far, he's turned in a 0.75 ERA and 1.083 WHIP.  He was a bit of a hard luck loser his last time out as he gave up three runs on just five hits, but the offense had a rare "off-night" and "forgot" to score.  That shouldn't be the case here. 8* St. Louis

6* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET):  The Cubs are an absolute juggernaut right now as they've raced out to an 18-6 start w/ an even more impressive +83 run differential (which is more than double the 2nd best run diff).  It was "more of the same" yday as they beat the Pirates 7-2. When the pitching matchups were announced for this series, more than any other, tonight's stood out to me. I say this because it's a matchup of two pitchers w/ 5-0 TSR's as Jake Arrieta battles Jon Niese. However, as you'll come to find out, not all records are created equally. One pitcher has clearly been better than the other to this point and he happens to be the one working for the better team as well.  Stick with the red hot Cubs in this one as the price is more than justified.

While Arrieta has a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP (won all 5 starts), Niese has a 5.08 ERA and 1.483 WHIP (is "only" 3-0).  So, clearly, it would be foolish to say that these two are equals even though they have the matching 5-0 team start records. Furthermore, Arrieta (LY's Cy Young winner) is 6-1 w/ a 1.68 ERA all-time vs. Pittsburgh (includes LY's Wild Card Game) while Niese is just 3-6 w/ a 4.76 ERA in his career vs. the Cubs.  Arrieta hasn't allowed any runs in three of his five starts to this point, including a no-hitter, while Niese has actually allowed at least four runs in four of his five starts. Without question, Niese is fortunate to be unbeaten at this point as he's received tremendous run support (8.89 runs per start), but that's something that he won't be able to count on here starting opposite Arrieta.

Niese, in fact, has give up four times the number of earned runs that Arrieta has despite working 7 2/3 less innings. Over his L3 starts, Arrieta has allowed just one run and eight hits in 22 IP. He's attempting to become just the second pitcher in MLB history to allow three runs or less in 26 consecutive starts. Thirteen times during that stretch, he hasn't allowed a single run. Over his L18 starts, he is an unfathomable 16-0 w/ a 0.69 ERA.  You get the picture. Furthermore, Arrieta is working on a 16-inning scoreless streak against the Bucs. This is a total mismatch.  6* Chi Cubs

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): Though they just swept a series in Arizona, upping their YTD road record to 8-4, I still relish the opportunity to go against the Rockies outside of Coors Field. Particularly when they are in this kind of price range. In what's shaping up to be a wide open National League West, Colorado is actually tied for 1st place, even though they have a .500 record and have been outscored by six runs this season. Before the series in Arizona, the Rockies were -21 in run differential this year and I can't help but think back to the fact this club was a woeful 53-109 on the road the previous two seasons. They've actually been bet to the role of favorite here, something that is quite uncommon. In fact, this team was favored on the money line in only 36 of 162 games last season and almost every time it was at home.

So, it's been established that this is a pretty good value that we're getting here on the Padres, or rather just going against the Rockies.  Furthermore, note that San Diego has already taken two of three from their division rival this season, those games taking place at Coors Field. The Padres totaled 29 runs in their two victories and while neither of them were against Jon Gray (tonight's starter for Colorado), the opportunity is there to have another big night at the plate. I say that because Gray has an 11.42 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in his two starts so far this season as he's given up 11 runs in just 8 2/3 IP.  Last time out, he gave up six in just 3 2/3 as the team fell 9-8 to Pittsburgh. At the time, it was the Rockies' fifth straight loss.

San Diego had also lost five in a row heading into their last series, but it ended up being a successful weekend for them at Chavez Ravine as they took two of three from the Dodgers. Both times they won, they were north of +160 on the money line. Sunday's loss was a 1-0 final as they ran into a red-hot Clayton Kershaw, who also provided the game's lone RBI.  So Padres pitching remains in good form as they allowed just four runs in that entire series and two runs or fewer in four of the last five games overall.  Today's starter James Shields is 0-5 so far, but off his best outing to date as he allowed only one run on three hits in 7 IP vs. the Giants, only to come out on the wrong end of another 1-0 decision. I'm calling for Shields' first victory of the season here as he's been a victim of bad run support thus far, which should change tonight. 10* San Diego

8* St. Louis (8:15 ET):  This is interesting as it's Philadelphia that comes in on a six-game win streak after sweeping both Washington and Cleveland in its last two series. St. Louis, on the other hand, is reeling after suffering four straight defeats. The last three came here at home against the Nationals, including B2B 6-1 losses. But like Giants-Reds, we have the giant chasm that exists between the have's and have not's in the National League to work with here.  I know what the recent form of these two ballcubs says, but YTD run differential tells a much different story as the Phillies are -17 in that department while the Cardinals, despite having a losing record, are actually 4th best in MLB at +34. Regardless of recent form, the Cards are a contender, the Phils are not and with the price having come way down, this is a great opportunity to "buy low" on a somewhat undervalued favorite.

On paper, things certainly seem to "set up" well here for the visitors, who are facing the struggling Adam Wainwright and on their longest win streak in four seasons. But the Phils were a pretty lucky team in that series with Cleveland as all three wins were of the one-run variety. They managed only four hits yday and remain bottom five in baseball in runs scored. The starting rotation has been shockingly good to this point, but I'm not sure if I'm buying on any of these guys long-term.  Today's starter, Jeremy Hellickson, has a 0.96 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in two road starts thus far. But before tossing seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball his last time out (at Washington), he'd been hit hard in B2B starts, giving up 10 runs and 17 hits in just 7 1/3 IP.  In the last three seasons, Hellickson had not been a very good pitcher on the road as his ERA was 5.13 in 36 outings while opponents batted .275 off him.

Wainwright, meanwhile, has yet to allow fewer than 3 ER in any start this season for the Cards. But he has had some success in the past against Philly w/ a 2.65 ERA in 10 career starts.  I mentioned earlier that the Phillies lineup is really struggling this season (just 3.3 runs/game). Well, St. Louis actually leads all of baseball in offense (5.7 runs/game), so expect Wainwright to get plenty of support here and if that's the case, then the home team wins w/ little difficulty. 8* St. Louis

8* San Francisco (7:10 ET):  In previous analysis, I've given my "lay of the land" in the National League where half of the teams are contenders and half aren't. Anytime I can exploit the giant chasm that exists between the two groups, I probably will, at least in this early part of the season.  Here it's the Giants w/ Johnny Cueto facing Cueto's old team, the Reds. Cincinnati is off a rare win, 6-5 over Pittsburgh on Sunday (in extra innings), but still holds the worst run differential in all of MLB at -52.  San Francisco is only .500 right now (+8 run differential) after salvaging a game Sunday against the Mets. But they clearly remain the better ballclub here and I think the relatively low price range makes a play warranted.

Cueto will be the big storyline here as he pitches for the first time as a visitor at Great American Ballpark. Note that in his last three full years as a member of the Reds, Cueto posted a 25-7 WL record when pitching here. That includes a 13-4 mark in 2014 where his ERA was 1.71 and opponents batted just .180 off him.  The last time we saw him, he was pitching pretty well in his new ballpark as well, recording 11 K's and delivering a complete-game shutout of the Padres (allowed only seven hits).  Cueto's only two road starts so far this year have gone really well too as you can tell from a 1.26 ERA and 0.768 WHIP. Through five starts total, his KW ratio is 33-5.  So, I expect Cueto to pitch well tonight, particularly with the Reds lineup batting a collective .205 its last seven games.

It took 11 innings for Cincy to finally pick up a win on Sunday, but only after they blew a lead in the seventh, eighth AND ninth frames!  That snapped a six-game slide and I'd say the odds of a win streak are pretty minimal considering the offense had scored all of 10 runs in those six losses and never more than three in any one game. Starter Brandon Finnegan, ironically acquired from KC in LY's Cueto trade, has struggled in B2B starts as well. One of those saw him get caught on the wrong end of a 16-0 final, which was the game the Cubs' Jake Arrieta threw his no-hitter. Last time out, Finnegan's control issues continued as he walked three batters in 6 1/3, upping his season total to 15.  This should be an easy one for the Giants.  8* San Francisco

8* Boston (8:05 ET):   The Yankees are simply not a very good team right now. Thus, even though David Price has been struggling thus far for the Red Sox, I anticipate that he will dominate this scuffling lineup.  Price was certainly a lot better his last time out where he dominated the lowly Braves with 14 strikeouts while allowing just two runs and six hits over eight innings.  Yes, the Braves are bad and a weak-hitting lineup (plus Price benefited from facing the pitcher), but you know what? The Yankees have actually scored one less run this season than the Braves and that's without having to send the pitcher to the plate! Look for Price to shut down MLB's lowest scoring lineup Sunday night.

Boston has a +21 run differential right now, which is second in the American League, trailing only Baltimore's +22. They've won six of their last seven and yday's 8-0 victory saw them outhit the Yanks 14-5. It was also the team's third win by at least five runs in the last five games. Meanwhile, New York is headed down a much darker path as they've lost five of six and are -30 in run differential for the season. During the slide, this awful lineup is batting a collective .208 while scoring just nine runs!  They've been outhit 40-24 the L4 games. Their numbers at the plate when on the road are predictably dreadful.

Considering the Yankees are only 3-7 in games which they face a southpaw starter, things probably aren't going to go well here vs. Price, who has gone 3-0 w/ a 1.71 ERA his last four starts against them overall.  The Red Sox have now taken six of the last seven meetings from their main rival and I do not think that sending Nathan Eovaldi to the hill is enough to change the fortune of the guys wearing pinstripes.  Eovaldi is coming off his best outing of 2016 to date, but still sports a 4.38 ERA and must contend with a Red Sox lineup that is averaging over six runs per game its last 11 contests while batting a collective .312.  With Price on the hill and the current state of the opponent, the Red Sox are way "underpriced" in this one.  8* Boston

10* Chi White Sox (1:35 ET):  Chris Sale, at this price, is simply too good to pass up. The White Sox surprised me a little bit yday when they were able to win a slugfest over the Orioles, 8-7. Strong starting pitching has been their "M.O." to this point and that charge has been led by their ace, Sale, who is 5-0 w/ a 1.66 ERA and a ridiculous 0.684 WHIP.  So if the offense is able to produce anywhere near the level of Saturday, they are going to be in line to earn themselves a series split. Baltimore will counter w/ Ubaldo Jimenez and his recent form has basically been the mirror opposite of Sale. 

It's obviously still really early in the season, but Sale has clearly emerged as the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young.  Maybe his strikeout rate has been down a little (32 K's in 38 IP), but the bottom line is he's not giving up any runs. He's allowed just two - one of them unearned - over his L3 starts.  He's allowed just 10 baserunners over his L24 IP, which works out to a preposterously good 0.417 WHIP.  Opponents are batting just .159 against Sale to this point.  He's consistently been able to go deep into games w/ one CG already and last time out he needed only 100 pitched to get through eight innings. He's made it through seven innings in all five starts this year.

Then you have Jimenez, who has a 5.06 ERA and 1.750 WHIP his L3 starts.  While Sale has issued just five walks in five starts, Jimenez has issued 11 free passes in his last three starts alone.  Aside from two starts last season, Jimenez has never fared particularly well against the White Sox w/ a 4.17 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 12 starts.  The edition of the Pale Hose happens to be 11-5 on the road thus far, not to mention 7-3 in day games.  Both of these teams would qualify as "surprise" division leaders to this point, but Baltimore is the one that I believe in less. With Chicago, you can point to clear strengths (pitching) while with the Orioles, I'm still searching for answers.  Look for Sale to remain unbeaten.  10* Chi White Sox

    

7* Arizona (8:10 ET):  You'll note that the Diamondbacks (along with the Marlins) were excluded from my "discussion" of the lay of the land in the National League in the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh writeup.  I could see their season going either way as they came into 2016 w/ plenty of hype thanks to an active approach to free agency. Last night, things certainly did not go well as they fell here at home to Colorado, 9-0.  Perhaps the road team benefited from an unexpected off-day as Thursday's contest vs. Pittsburgh was postponed due to weather. However, it has been Rockies' rookie phenom Trevor Story that has really been killing Arizona (and the rest of the league for that matter) w/ five of his 10 HR's coming off D'backs pitching.  However, after they were embarrassed last night,  I'll look for the home team to bounce back tonight.

Something that I did not anticipate writing in this space is that Colorado comes in with a winning road record (6-4) this season. Consider that they are still 59-113 outside of the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field the last three seasons.  Also, off a win (of any kind), the club is 59-81 the L3 seasons.  That includes a 3-6 mark in 2016.  Chris Rusin is their starting pitching tonight as he makes his season debut in that role.  Having made four relief appearances this season, he hasn't allowed a run in his last 9+ IP.  But starting is an entirely different animal.  I'll call for him to struggle here, just like he has throughout his career as a starter (9-19, 5.21 ERA).

I have yet to even mention that Arizona will be sending Zack Greinke to the hill. That's because he's had a very disappointing start to his D'backs' tenure, though the team has won his L3 turns in the rotation.  The move from Chavez Ravine to Chase Field has not been a positive one thus far for LY's NL Cy Young winner, but I certainly expect his numbers to improve moving forward.  Prior to yday, his offense had not been shut out this season and I expect them to bounce back as well.  Arizona is averaging a healthy 5.2 rpg at home this season.  7* Arizona

5* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET):  Something that I will continue to harp on until proven otherwise is that a giant chasm exists between the top and bottom teams in the National League. If you spent any time reading season previews, then you're probably aware that there are seven teams in the Senior Circuit believed to be legit contenders in 2016 (Cubs, Nats, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Cards, Pirates).  At the other end of the spectrum, a case can be made that the six worst teams in all of baseball hail from the NL (Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Reds, Rockies, Padres).  This chasm is something I'll likely be looking to exploit early in the season or at least until the linesmakers fully catch up. 

Here, we have the Pirates hosting the Reds. As you might have guessed, the former beat the latter 4-1 last night. It was Pittsburgh's fifth consecutive victory and at the same time Cincinnati's fifth straight loss. The Reds' YTD run differential (-49) is now a MLB worst, so a 9-14 record should actually be dubbed as being fairly fortunate. Believe it or not, Cincy has a winning record against the Bucs the L2 seasons and took two of three in the first series of 2016 (at Great American Ballpark). But I do not envision this weekend going well for the road team and quite frankly a sweep seems likely. The only run that the Reds scored last night came w/ two outs in the top of the ninth.

Things figure to not go well again tonight as Alfredo Simon heads to the hill. He has a 15.11 ERA and 2.878 WHIP (three starts) coming into tonight after B2B disastrous outings against the Cubs.  After failing to even make it out of the first inning (allowed five runs) on 4.13, Simon then allowed eight runs in 2 2/3 innings on Sunday. He was also the starter when the Reds lost their only game to the Pirates at home.  Pittsburgh has homered seven times in last four games while averaging eight runs per game and 12.6 hits its last five. By the way, the Reds are just 1-9 on the road this season while being outscored by 3.6 runs/game.  This should be an easy one for Bucs starter Francisco Liriano, who came out on the winning end against Simon back on April 5th.  5* Pittsburgh

8* NY Mets (4:05 ET):  On the back of one strong inning, the Mets tattooed the Giants Friday night, winning 13-1 with all but one of those runs coming in a stunning third inning explosion. The reigning Senior Circuit champs are a hot team right now as they've won seven in a row and have MLB's third best run differential (+40), trailing only the Cubs and Cardinals.  While I often preach to "buy low, sell high," the fact is that things get no easier for San Francisco today as they go up against the well-rested Jacob deGrom.  Even worse is that they will be sending the struggling Matt Cain (last win came all the way back on 7.22) to the bump. I'm not getting in front of this runaway Mets' train right now; in fact I'm jumping on it.

DeGrom has made only two starts due to both a muscle strain and a health issue w/ his newborn son. After going more than two weeks between starts, deGrom showed no ill-effects from the long layoff by going 5 2/3 innings and allowing just one run to Atlanta on Sunday. Now, you could point out that deGrom has gotten to face both the Braves and Phillies (NL's two lowest scoring offenses) so far. That's certainly fair. But deGrom is 2-0 lifetime vs. SF w/ a 1.17 ERA.  In his one start against them last season, he went eight innings, allowing only two hits and striking out 10.  That was in San Fran and history suggests he should be even more dominant tonight.  His 1.86 ERA in 26 career starts at Citi Field is the lowest home ERA of any Mets pitcher in history w/ at least 169 IP.

As mentioned earlier, the Giants will counter w/ Cain, who has gone 0-5 w/ a 6.64 ERA his L11 starts overall. He allowed a season-worst 10 hits on Sunday against the Marlins as for a third straight time he failed to make it through a full six innings. Now he must face a Mets lineup that is batting an impressive .289 its last 14 games with 29 home runs and a 5.9 runs per game scoring average.  As for bouncing back from a performance like yday's, note that San Francisco is 0-2 this season after allowing 10+ runs and 5-8 in that role the L3 seasons.  8* NY Mets

8* Seattle (10:10 ET):  The Mariners have a nice advantage coming into tonight's series opener and it's name is Felix Hernandez, who will be toeing the rubber for them.  King Felix, somehow stuck with a 1-3 team start record, still is sporting 1.80 ERA and 1.160 WHIP. Despite the relatively high walk rate, I expect him to handle his business here against a Royals team that just got swept down in Los Angeles. You might be surprised to learn that Seattle has been the better ballclub compared to Kansas City so far, at least according to run differential (+17 to +3) and then there's the fact they have a winning record against the Royals the previous two seasons (where KC has made B2B World Series appearances). Go with the M's.

Hernandez has only gotten to pitch one time at Safeco Field in 2016 and that outing saw him deliver seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball w/ 10 K's against Oakland.  Sadly, Seattle still lost the game 2-1.  In fact, the offense has yet to score more than three runs in any of Hernandez's starts this year. Despite that, the fact they are still 12-10 is actually kind of encouraging as they've actually outscored opponents by 20 runs while going 11-7 in non-Hernandez starts. You have to figure that King Felix will turn things around and tonight is a good place to start.  The Royals have lost five consecutive road games while scoring only 12 total runs.

Aiding the Seattle offense here will be facing Kris Medlen, who was a disaster his last time out as he gave up seven runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work in what ended up being a 7-3 loss for his team.  I can't see Medlen standing in there and going toe to toe with Hernandez, who has not allowed more than three runs in any start.  Medlen will have to contend here with the surging Robinson Cano, who has eight home runs and 24 RBI's thus far, both personal bests for April.  Two of Seattle's losses with Hernandez on the mound came by one run, both seeing him not allow an earned run.  Last time, he allowed all three runs on two mistakes (both home runs). His "luck" is due to turn and the fact is this is a very fair price range. 8* Seattle

10* NY Yankees (7:10 ET):  Right off the bat, the Yanks have a little bit of an advantage over the rival Red Sox coming into tonight's series opener. They had Thursday off while Boston had to play and lost to the lowly Braves, 5-3. That loss snapped a four-game win streak for Beantown and it's tough to like their chances here considering they're on the wrong end of what appears to be a pretty giant pitching mismatch. Boston sends Henry Owens to the bump and he's coming off a poor first start to the season.  New York counters with Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 0.973 WHIP in his four starts, the last three of which have resulted in wins for the team.  I'm on the Pinstripes here.

The Yankees probably were happy to have yday off considering they dropped B2B games in Texas the two days prior.  The scuffling offense (just 10 runs scored last five games) has been a problem and is a major reason why this team currently finds itself in the AL East basement.  However, Tanaka can counteract that as he's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season and in his last two he's gone seven innings both times, posting an outstanding 13-1 KW ratio.  Tanaka has had his share of difficulties in the past vs. the Red Sox, but one thing to consider is that the Yankees have accounted quite well for themselves here at Fenway the last two seasons, winning 11 of 14 games.

Though Boston ultimately won the game (7-5 at Houston) last Sunday night (I was on them!), that wasn't owed to Owens, who was hit hard. He gave up three runs in only 3 1/3 IP and walked four batters as well. So the Sox were definitely a bit lucky to walk away from that one w/ a win and I certainly didn't like what I saw from Owens there. I also haven't liked what I've seen in the past from Owens against the Yankees as he's allowed 10 runs on 11 hits in just 6 2/3 innings of work.  That's over two starts and both times he went up against Tanaka and lost.  The combined score of those two games was 26-11 in favor of NY. The third time will not be the charm for Owens. 10* NY Yankees

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am laying the -1.5 with the Cubs. This is just like yday, only possibly even easier. The Cubs, who lead all of MLB in run differential by a wide margin (+74), now welcome in arguably the worst team in either league. That would be the Braves, who are actually off a rare win here, just their fifth of the entire season. They surprised me and Boston yday, winning 5-3, but aside from a three-game sweep of the Marlins this team has just two other wins this season. On paper, this series is the biggest mismatch of the weekend (and maybe month!) and the fact that Jon Lester toes the rubber for the home team makes things all the more lopsided.

Just like Jake Arrieta yesterday, Lester should be in line for a dominant performance here. He comes in w/ a 1.98 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in four starts so far. He probably should have a 4-0 team start record as the one time the team lost with him on the bump, Lester still allowed only one run and four hits in 7+ IP. But unfortunately, the offense was shut out that day (by Colorado). But in the other three Lester starts, the Cubs have outscored opponents by a combined 19-5 margin. He gives his team a massive advantage here as Atlanta is forced to go with Aaron Blair, who gave up three runs and six hits (plus two walks) in his big league debut on Sunday. Blair and the Braves are simply ill-equipped to compete against this weekend's opponent.

Yes, the Cubs could be without Kris Bryant, who suffered a mild ankle sprain in yday's 7-2 win over Milwaukee. But consider that over the last seven games, the Cubs have outscored their opponents by four runs per game while over the same span Atlanta is being outscored by three runs per game. Braves pitching has been a disaster since the start of the season, especially in the walks department as they've issued 87 free passes thus far. The Cubs have taken the most walks in all of baseball w/ 114 (drew 11 yday!). Consider that the Cubs have beaten the Braves six straight times, every win coming by at least two runs. With the Cubs in the neighborhood of -300 on the money line, the run line becomes our friend here. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (-1.5)

10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET):  Miami has come into Chavez Ravine and taken the first two games of this three-game set from the still-NL West leading Dodgers. That includes an absolute stunner against Clayton Kershaw (Marlins were +255 on the money line!) in the series opener. But it all changes tonight as they get set to face Kenta Maeda, who has been the best pitcher in the Dodgers' rotation thus far.  Now, Miami does counter w/ Jose Fernandez, but his numbers simply don't compare to Maeda's and keep in mind this is a road game. For those who haven't followed Fernandez's career as closely, he is a far more effective pitcher at home than on the road.  Look for the Dodgers to avoid the sweep.

In four starts, Maeda has a 0.36 ERA and 0.869 WHIP.  We're talking Jake Arrieta territory with those numbers.  Only Detroit's Jordan Zimmerman has a better ERA (in all of baseball) right now as Maeda has allowed a grand total of ONE run in his four starts, which have spanned 25 1/3 innings.  His last time out he pitched at Coors Field and delivered six-plus scoreless innings of three-hit ball.  The only run Maeda has allowed came on a solo home run.  So the Marlins offense isn't likely to get many chances tonight and keep in mind they only scored two runs yday.  Opponents are batting just .189 against Maeda, who is allowing an on base percentage of .240.  Just spectacular. 

The Dodgers are typically very strong off a loss, going 92-57 in that role the last three seasons. That includes a 12-5 record if they happened to be shutout in the previous game.   Fernandez allowed four runs his last time out in a loss at San Francisco and has now walked 10 batters in his L3 starts overall.  He comes in w/ a 4.37 ERA.  While he's 18-1 at home in his career, his road record is just 5-10 w/ an ERA that's over two full points higher. Despite losing the last two games, the Dodgers are still +17 in run differential.  10* LA Dodgers

5* Boston (7:10 ET): After (not surprisingly) taking the two games in Atlanta, the Red Sox beat the Braves here at Fenway yesterday by a score of 9-4.  I see no reason why the better team won't be able to complete the sweep here of this four-game Interleague set. Last night's loss was the eighth straight for Atlanta, who was widely expected to be the worst team in baseball this season. They currently stand at 4-17 with a run differential of -44.  So, yeah, they're not a very good ball club. That's the worst won-loss record in MLB and only Cincinnati (-46) is worse in run differential.  This series was "just what the doctor ordered" for Boston.

While the starting staff for the Red Sox still has plenty of room to improve, one area that they have been fantastic in is striking opposing hitters out.  Accoring to Elias (Sports Bureau), their 220 K's through 21 games is a Major League record.  They have 34 in this series alone. Getting the baseball tonight will be Clay Buchholz, who has allowed exactly 5 ER in three of his four starts to this point. But he did strike out a season-high six batters his last time out and I'm going to go ahead and call for this to be a quality start. His last time pitching here at Fenway saw him toss 6 2/3 scoreless innings and that was against a Toronto lineup that is generally regarded as the most formidable in the sport. Atlanta would be at the opposite end of the spectrum as they come into tonight tied (w/ Philadelphia) for the fewest runs scored in all of baseball. 

All of the Braves' wins this season came in one-win streak. Otherwise, they are an unconscionable 1-15 off a loss.  They've been outscored 21-8 in the three games vs. Boston and I don't see Jhoulys Chacin being able to turn the tide.  He's allowed a total of seven runs in his last 6 2/3 innings of work. Remember that the Red Sox lineup is now tougher with the games taking place at home because they get to use the DH. As for Atlanta's offense, they have a combined FOUR home runs/triples so far this season.   They are a team that is going to lose a LOT of ballgames in 2016.  5* Boston

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (2:20 ET):  Please note that this is a run line play only where I am LAYING the 1.5 runs with the Cubs. Considering who is pitching for the home team today (Jake Arrieta), I find it hard to believe that they won't be winning this game by multiple runs.  Arrieta is of course coming off a no-hitter vs. the Reds, a game the Cubs won 16-0 as the team's run differential with him on the mound this season is an incredible +33. Arrieta has won all four starts, posting a 0.87 ERA and 0.677 WHIP, three times not even giving up a single run. Every game this season where he's started has been decided by at least four runs. Going back to last season, Arrieta now has a 0.79 ERA over his last 20 starts w/ two no-hitters. Milwaukee doesn't have a chance here.

Yesterday's rainout only delayed the inevitable for the Brew Crew as this game sets up as one of the biggest pitching mismatches of 2016.  Milwaukee starter Taylor Jungmann has an 8.47 ERA and 1.824 WHIP in his four starts and his last time out saw him give up as many runs in four innings as Arrieta has all season in 31.  Jungmann's last three starts have seen the Brewers go 0-3 while being outscored 23-2.  He walked six batters against Minnesota a week ago, which is never a good sign.  The Brewers currently have the third worst run differential in all of baseball at -38. 

Getting back to Arrieta, he is working on a 48+ scoreless innings streak here at Wrigley and the team is 17-0 his last 17 starts overall in the regular season.  Bob Gibson (in the late 60s) was the last pitcher to record 24 consecutive quality starts, which is where Arrieta is at now.  In his last three starts vs. Milwaukee, he has a 0.86 ERA including a 4-0 shutout here at the Friendly Confines back in September.  In the grand scheme of things, it's some heavy juice to lay for a team to win by multiple runs, yet totally justifiable.  8* Run Line Chi Cubs (-1.5)

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels, who I'm admittedly not very high on this year, have a chance to sweep the reigning World Series Champs here at home and I think they're going to do it.  It's been a pair of pretty dominant victories so far in the series, 6-1 and 9-4, with a 22-13 edge in hits and I certainly believe the pitching matchup is in the Halos favor tonight. While they've certainly enjoyed a ton of success the last two seasons (B2B World Series appearances!), the Royals have also had their fair share of good luck and I've never been as high on them as others have been.

The last time Nick Tropeano pitched for the Angels, I took the Under. It was a game against Seattle and he was supposed to face Felix Hernandez, but King Felix was a late scratch and it ended up being Hisashi Iwakuma going for the Mariners. No matter, the game was 2-2 after nine innings and I still cashed by Under bet (7.5) despite a three-run 10th from Seattle.  Tropeano obviously didn't factor into the decision there, but he certainly did his job, allowing only two runs in 5+ IP.  He did walk four batters, but consider that equaled the number of free passes he'd issued in his first two starts combined. Overall, it's been an excellent start to the season for Tropeano, who has a 1.69 ERA through three starts. Giving up the long ball is something you don't have to worry about with him as in his career (75 1/3 innings), he's allowed just two home runs and both were solo shots.

Kansas City will be sending veteran Chris Young to the bump here and his numbers won't exactly inspire a ton of confidence for his team.  In four starts, Young has a 6.41 ERA and 1.627 WHIP and on the road is where things have been real ugly (10.38 ERA, 2.422 WHIP).  He's coming off his strongest outing to date (vs. Baltimore), but I simply don't see a repeat of that taking place here. Consider that his 10 strikeouts against the Orioles marked the first time in EIGHT SEASONS that he posted that many K's in a start.  The offense had more doubles (6) than runs (4) yday, but is hitting only .211 collectively its last four road games (all losses). 10* LA Angels

9* Cleveland (8:10 ET): Whoa. Wrong team favored here as despite B2B (one-run) victories in this series, the Twins remain fully entrenched in the AL Central cellar at 7-14 w/ a -19 run differential. Cleveland, expected to be a big player in the American League this season, came into this series riding high off a three-game sweep of Detroit. They've outscored opponents by seven runs so far and I'm not sure what the oddsmakers are thinking here given tonight's pitching matchup.  The Indians have lost in the final at-bat each of the first two games here in the Twin Cities, so we easily could be looking at a much different series coming into the finale. But beecause the Twins won both games, we are now able to grab the better team (Cleveland) at a very favorable price.

Cleveland's rotation took a bit of hit with the Carlos Carrasco injury, but there are still plenty of quality arms on hand here. One is tonight's starter Josh Tomlin, who has won both of his starts to the point thanks to a 1.54 ERA and 0.771 WHIP.  He's allowed just two runs and eight hits in 11 2/3 innings thus far with a 10-1 KW ratio.  The Minnesota lineup that Tomlin faces tonight is hardly a formidable one. They average only 3.4 runs per game this season and are bottom 10 in slugging as well. The Twins matched a season-high w/ 14 hits last night (had only 5 in the series opener), so I expect a sharp decrease in production here.  While Tomlin has had his share of struggles vs. this opponent, he seems to be a much better pitcher so far in 2016.

The big story here for Minnesota is that Jose Berrios makes his big league debut.  Berrios has been called into duty earlier than anticipated due to injuries to the front end of the Twins' rotation.  Granted, he brings with him a lot of promise, but I'm not sure this is a great spot for the 21-year old.  Cleveland averages 4.7 rpg on the road and 5.6 against right-handed starters.  The Tribe has also yet to lose three straight games this season. Minnesota is a team that was favored in less than a quarter of its games last season (why they turned such a big profit), so the price here definitely "raises eyebrows" as I call it a rare mistake from the linesmakers. 9* Cleveland

8* San Francisco (3:45 ET):  While it's been "just" a pair of one-run victories thus far (won 1-0 Tuesday), the Giants have a chance to sweep the struggling Padres right out of town this afternoon and they have my endorsement. In what will be a common theme in handicapping National League matchups this season, this series pits one of the supposed "haves" against one of the supposed "have nots."  Coming into the year, there were seven teams in the Senior Circuit (Cubs, Nats, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Cards, Pirates) perceived to be playoff contenders while there's a good chance that the six worst teams in baseball all end up hailing from the NL (Phils, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Rockies, Padres). Anytime you find a matchup of teams from the two disparate groups, you need to exploit it, especially if the money line is this "low."

We know that the Giants bullpen won't be taxed at all here because last night's starter Johnny Cueto went the distance (on 119 pitches) w/ 11 strikeouts.  With the quick turnaround between games, having a fresh bullpen is a big advantage for a Giants team that has beaten the Padres seven straight times dating back to last season. Meanwhile, San Diego's bullpen has had to work a total of eight innings the L3 games. Based on run differential, we can ascertain that the Giants have "underachieved" a bit this season.  Despite being only .500 (11-11) in the standings, they have outscored opponents by 12 runs this year. So, a sweep here clearly would not be surprising as they continue to get "back on track." Losers of four straight, San Diego currently has a run differential of -31, tied for fourth worst in baseball. They are, in fact, a very bad ballclub.

Another big disadvantage for the Padres in this game is that it takes place in the daytime where they are just 41-61 the L3 seasons. Incredibly, last night marked the fifth time they've been shut out this season already. They send Andrew Cashner to the bump today, but his 4.29 ERA and 1.238 WHIP aren't exactly inspiring and he's 0-4 all-time here at AT&T Park w/ a 6.91 ERA. The Giants counter w/ Jeff Samardzija, who is coming off a very strong showing in his home debut (allowed 1 ER in 7 2/3 IP) and has a 2.76 ERA in six career starts vs. San Diego.  Big time advantage for the Giants in this one. 8* San Francisco.

8* St. Louis (9:40 ET):  The Cardinals lost last night's series opener in Arizona and that has to leave them at least a little bit frustrated as they ended up scoring seven runs in a game Zack Greinke started.  Unfortunately, "you can do the math," and they ended up allowing 12 runs, nine of those coming in one fateful inning.  That one was on the St. Louis bullpen, a little uncharacteristic, as that group had been performing just fine in the early part of the season. The Redbirds come into tonight's game w/ a 10-9 record, but a run differential (+35) that's second best in all of baseball (trailing only the Cubs). Tonight's pitching matchup seems heavily slanted in their favor. Go with the road team in this one.

Carlos Martinez has opened 3-0 for the Cards in 2016, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  That's a "far cry" from the numbers we've seen so far from Arizona's starter, Shelby Miller, who like fellow free agent acquisition Greinke has struggled mightily. Miller has an 8.59 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in four starts, which are terrible numbers and he's failed to make it past the second inning in each of his last two starts. His walk rate has more than doubled from last season (3.20 to 6.75 per nine innings) and consider he's walked eight batters in just 3 2/3 IP his last two times out. In his first two starts here at Chase Field, Miller allowed a total of 10 runs in 11 innings. Last year, Miller could pin his poor TSR on the team (Atlanta), this year he is to blame.

Martinez has gotten plenty of run support so far from the Cardinals bats (6.0 runs per game), not that he's needed it, however.  All three starts have been quality and in his last time out, he held the Cubs to just one run and three hits over seven innings.  Over the last three seasons, the Cards have gone a remarkable 90-54 off a loss and they were also a perfect 7-0 last season vs. the D'backs (12-2 against them L3 seasons).  In two career starts vs. Arizona, Martinez has a 2.08 ERA, so I look for him to slow their offense down.  8* St. Louis

8* Boston (7:10 ET): When they decided to pay him $217 million over the course of the next seven years, the Red Sox clearly weren't expecting to see a 7.06 ERA next to David Price's name after four starts.  Price was rocked his last time out, giving up eight runs (on eight hits) in just 3 2/3 IP.   Two of the four starts have been good, however, as he allowed only 2 ER over six and seven innings respectively against Cleveland and Toronto w/ a 19-2 KW ratio. Having alternated good and bad starts so far, it's "time" for a good one here from Price and fortunately he has the right opponent, that being the woeful Braves, who were shutout yday as they fell to 4-15 on the season. Look for Price to mow down one of the weaker National League lineups. 

Atlanta, as expected, is one of the worst teams in all of baseball. They sport MLB's worst record and only fellow Senior Circuit bottom-feeders Milwaukee and Cincinnati have worse run differentials than the Braves -26.  Like I just said earlier, they were shut out yday, losing 1-0 as they finished the game with only four hits. Also, their homer-less streak reached 14 straight games.   This is an offense scoring just 3.2 rpg while batting .227 and they have an OBP below .300 (.293).  They are last in MLB in runs scored, slugging and OPS. This all has to be "music to the ears" of Price, who has faced Atlanta three times previously and has never allowed more than two runs (1.89 ERA). This will be the weakest Braves team he's ever faced.

Also, what is really frustrating for Atlanta is that they wasted their own strong pitching performance last night. It is highly unlikely that they will allow only one run again here, even though the Red Sox lineup is w/o the DH spot in the order (that means no David Ortiz). But the Boston bats came into this series batting a collective .340 while scoring an average of 6.2 rpg and Braves starter Matt Wisler did not do well last year against American League lineups (4.24 ERA in three starts). This should be another easy one for the road team. 8* Boston

8* Detroit (7:10 ET): It was not a pleasant weekend for the Tigers, who were swept here at home by the Indians. I was on Cleveland in two of the games, taking them at +123 on the money line in Friday's series opener and after a 10-1 Tribe win on Saturday, I came back w/ them again yday (won 6-3). Sunday ended up being another bad day at the plate for Detroit, who has now scored only five runs over its last four games (all losses) w/ just 18 total hits. As dire as this all sounds, I have a far more positive outlook on the Tigers today. That's obviously because they'll have Jordan Zimmerman on the bump. Zimmerman, who has yet to allow a single run this season, should lead his team to victory Monday.

Oakland won its first seven road games, but has since dropped two in a row, both in Toronto over the weekend. Their story was similar to that of the Tigers as the A's bats went cold Saturday and Sunday, producing just six runs and 12 hits.  Two of their five hits yesterday were solo home runs. So they figure to struggle again here against Zimmerman, who is currently working on a 19+ inning scoreless streak. Opposing hitters are batting just .211 against him so far and he's off his best start to date as he struck out eight Royals while walking just one in a 3-2 win Wednesday. Oakland's task here becomes even tougher if they don't have Jed Lawrie (.292 hitter) in the lineup again tonight. Very few A's hitters have faced Zimmerman previously.

Similar to Zimmerman, Oakland's Kendall Graveman has pitched well this season. Just not quite as well. Graveman did snap a personal six-game losing streak his last time out by allowing just one run and three hits in 6 1/3 IP at Yankee Stadium.  But it's interesting that while Zimmerman's number of walks have decreased with each passing start, Graveman's walk rate has progressively risen.  While Detroit's recent numbers at the plate don't exactly inspire a ton of confidence here, Oakland's season long numbers are worse (bottom eight in most key categories) and that includes a .234 team batting average (28th in MLB). The Tigers have the superior starting pitcher and that's the key here. 8* Detroit

5* NY Mets (7:10 ET):  I readily admit that laying this kind of juice isn't always the best way to go, but in the case of a mismatch like this one, there's no reason to worry.  There is a giant gap between the contenders and the also-rans in the National League and it's something I'll be looking to exploit throughout the season. Obviously, you can count the reigning Senior Circuit champs among the former group and after a bit of a slow start, they have won three straight and now own a +22 run differential. Cincinnati is expected to be among the very worst teams in baseball and while they've been a bit of a surprise thus far at 9-10, they have a MLB-worst -40 run differential. With Noah Syndergaard on the hill, this should be an easy one for the Metropolitans.

Syndergaard enters Monday's series opener as the proud owner of a 0.90 ERA and 0.950 WHIP.  He's allowed only two earned runs in three starts and checks in with a superb 29-4 KW ratio.  His only start at home thus far was his most impressive to date as he mowed down 12 Marlins. But he was working opposite Jose Fernandez and the Mets actually lost that game, 2-1.  He came back last Monday and delivered a 5-2 win over the Phillies, allowing just one run and five hits. Working on six days rest here is pretty significant, especially facing such an inferior foe. Ten times in his career, Syndergaard has started w/ at least six days rest and he's posted a 2.62 ERA with 80 K's (in 65 1/3 IP). Syndergaard also tops all of MLB w/ an average fastball velocity of 98.4 MPH.

Cincinnati has lost eight straight times to the Mets, so that's not a good sign.  Nor was suffering three losses by seven runs or more to the Cubs over the weekend. Twice, the Reds were shutout in that series and the lineup is now batting a collective .208 the last seven games. Raisel Iglesias isn't necessarily a bad starter (2-1 team start record), but the problem is that behind him is a bullpen which could end up being MLB's worst this season (currently 8.22 ERA on the road). Overall, the Reds are just 2-11 vs. the Mets the L3 seasons. 5* NY Mets

10* Under White Sox/Blue Jays (7:07 ET): Both of these teams enjoyed nice weekends as Chicago swept Texas (they were at home) while Toronto took two of three from Oakland here at Rogers Centre. We know what side of the runs scored vs. allowed ledger that the Blue Jays are strongest on, but for the White Sox it's been a different story so far as they've given up the second fewest number of runs (trailing only Washington) in all of MLB. Their pitching staff is #1 in the American League in ERA, WHIP, opponents' batting average and has allowed the fewest home runs. It was originally set to be the ace of the staff, Chris Sale, pitching today, but instead it will be Miguel Gonzalez. No matter; we now are able to grab a better O/U line as I see this series opener staying Under the total.

By the way, Toronto has a pretty good starter going tonight as Marcus Stroman toes the rubber. I've always been pretty consistent that WHIP is a better predictor of future performance than ERA and if that continues to be the case, then Stroman appears to be in line for another very strong season. While his ERA may be a somewhat subpar 4.13, Stroman has a WHIP of just 0.988 as he's put on only 20 baserunners in 20 1/3 innings. In his first start of 2016, he was unfortunate in that he gave up five runs on only six hits, but since then has settled down w/ B2B quality outings that saw the Blue Jays win both times.  Both starts also ended up staying Under the total.

Speaking of the Under, that's the way each of the White Sox last eight games have gone. In only one game during that span has the pitching staff allowed more than three runs and that same game just so happened to see the offense get shut out. The move from Sale to Gonzalez may not seem ideal, but consider the latter has a 2.60 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Toronto. All that experience comes from Gonzalez's time with Baltimore.  The righty looked strong down in Triple-A Charlotte, posting a 2.45 ERA in his two starts.  Toronto, while hot at the plate lately, is still down offensively compared to last year. They'd actually gone Under in eight straight games themselves prior to the Oakland series. 10* Under White Sox/Blue Jays

9* Boston (8:05 ET):  Saturday offered up a bit of a reprieve for an Astros team that has been a mighty disappointment so far in 2016.  Even after the 8-3 win yday, Houston still is just 6-12 this season w/ a run differential (-18) worse than every other American League club with the exception of Minnesota. So, it appears as if they are mispriced for tonight’s game, especially considering an 0-5 WL record off a win so far this season.  The Red Sox won here on Friday and I see them taking the series.

Southpaw Henry Owens, fresh off an impressive stint at Triple-A Pawtucket, is set to make his first big league start of 2016 and he figures to do just fine against an Astros team that thus far is 0-2 in games vs. left-handed starters. Furthermore, Houston came into yday’s game hitting a collective .215 its L10 games with an average of just 2.7 runs scored per game.  In his three starts in Pawtucket, Owens struck out 23 batters in 18 innings and posted a 1.00 ERA. 

As for the Red Sox offense, it should improve from Saturday due to two factors. One is the likely return of SS Xander Bogaerts to the lineup. He sat out yday after being hit on the wrist by a pitch on Friday.  Bogaerts is hitting above .300 his last seven games and was 2 for 4 w/ a double in the series opener. The other reason to be optimistic about Boston on the runs scored side of the ledger is that they will get to face Scott Feldman, who has a 9.37 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Red Sox, including 15.23 in the last three.  Feldman has an 0-3 team start record so far this season (1.631 WHIP) and behind him is a bullpen that certainly has regressed (as many expected) in 2016 w/ a 4.37 ERA.   9* Boston

10* Arizona (4:10 ET):  The Diamondbacks and Pirates have split the first two games of this series and for today’s rubber match I’m favoring the home team, who will be sending Robbie Ray to the hill. Pittsburgh used the long ball (hit three home runs) to take Friday’s opener, 8-7, and I was actually on them in that spot. I laid off yday as the D’backs returned the favor, hitting a pair of home runs en route to a dominant 7-1 victory. Looking at the two Sunday starters, it looks pretty clear which will be more inclined to serve up a dinger or two and that’s Francisco Liriano, who has allowed three over the course of his last two starts. Liriano was hit hard in those two outings, both on the road, while Ray is coming off his best outing to date. I’ve got Arizona winning this series. 

The Pirates are on pace to give up a lot more runs this year compared what they allowed in 2015 and a lot of that is tied to a bullpen which appears to be in major regression mode.  Last year saw the relievers post an otherworldly 2.67 ERA (#1 in MLB) over the course of 522 innings. This year, that same group has a 4.48 ERA and 1.340 WHIP, allowing an average of 2.0 rpg.  They were responsible for giving up five runs in the eighth inning yday. Of course, the starting pitching has been less than stellar as well. In his last two starts, Liriano has allowed a total of seven runs (in just 9 1/3 IP) and has a negative KW ratio. He’s also allowed the three home runs I mentioned earlier. Liriano was lucky to beat the D’backs last season as he allowed five runs in seven innings of work.

Arizona, who has won six of its last seven games overall, should not have much concern with its starting pitching in this game. Ray is coming off six shutout innings of five-hit ball at San Francisco on Tuesday and before that had allowed just 2 ER in each of his first two outings. All told, he’s given up only 13 hits in 18 1/3 IP.   Ever since sweeping that first series (at home) against St. Louis, the Pirates are only 6-9. Meanwhile, Arizona has outscored its opponents by nearly three runs per game during this 6-1 stretch of theirs and has the offense to match Pittsburgh.  10* Arizona

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET):  The Indians have come to Detroit and taken it to the Tigers, winning 2-1 Friday (had them at +123!) and then again yday, 10-1.  The thing you have to understand with Cleveland is that they possess outstanding starting pitching. You don’t have to tell that to the Tigers, who so far have managed only six hits in the series and after facing Josh Tomlin and Corey Kluber, today they have to go up against Carlos Carrasco, who has a 3-0 TSR, 2.79 ERA and 1.035 WHIP.  Carrasco has allowed just 1 ER in B2B outings. He may not have a great history vs. Detroit, but then again Tigers starter Shane Greene has struggled in his career vs. Cleveland (9.00 ERA), so that’s a wash. Greene also is coming off a terrible outing (at Kansas City) on Tuesday and his offense seems to be in significantly worse shape. I’ll call for the Tribe to finish off the three-game sweep.

The Tigers caught me a little off-guard with a 6-2 start (I had them pegged for last in the AL Central this year), but things have since done a complete 180 degree turn as in a 2-6 record the last eight games. Four times during that stretch, they’ve been held to one run or less and now word comes down of a dreaded “closed clubhouse meeting.”  That’s never a good soign this early in the season. The last three games have seen the offense score a total of just two runs on 11 hits.  That’s also not a good sign, especially when getting set to face Carrasco, who has always had a great strikeout rate throughout his young career.  His only mistake his last time out was giving up a solo home run.  Detroit’s lineup has not homered in four games.

While I don’t have high hopes for the Tigers this year, the Indians are a team I pegged to win the division and possibly the American League pennant.  The offense finally broke out yesterday w/ a season-high 10 runs, though that was actually the third time in the last seven games they scored at least seven.  They should fare well against Greene, who allowed 7 ER his last time out, in only 4 1/3 innings.  He’s also walked seven batters in 10 1/3 IP this season.  When priced as a home underdog of +150 or less on the money line, Detroit is just 15-26 the last three seasons.  The Indians, meanwhile, are 18-11 as a ML road favorite of -125 to -150.  8* Cleveland

10* Miami (9:05 ET): After being swept in a four-game set in the previous series here at home (by Arizona), San Francisco responded by taking Friday's opener from the Marlins, 8-1. But don't make the mistake of getting too invested in the Giants here as they have to go up against Jose Fernandez tonight. Granted, Fernandez's resume shows that he's a much better pitcher at home, but he should benefit here from a pitcher friendly park. Fernandez has allowed just one run and three hits in each of his last two starts and both of those resulted in Miami victories.  It would seem as if he gives his team a massive pitching edge over the Giants, who turn to the struggling Jake Peavy in this spot. Look for the road team to square up this series at a game apiece.

Peavy's first three starts have all been terrible w/ him allowing four or more runs every time out in less than five innings. He's given up 28 hits in just 14 IP, so he not only has a 9.00 ERA, but a 2.071 WHIP as well.  Needless to say, those are really ugly numbers and even w/ Miami's offensive numbers being less than appealing, I can't see Peavy holding them in check enough to compete with Fernandez.  Had the Giants not scored 12 runs in Peavy's first start of 2016, then his team start record very likely would be 0-3. He's allowed a home run in B2B outings and his last time out saw him lose as a $1.40 favorite here at home to the Diamondbacks.

Making matters easier for Fernandez here is the fact the Giants offense has been scuffling of late.  Granted, they scored eight times last night, but that was with Jarred Cosart starting for the Marlins.  The previous three games had seen San Fran total just three runs and remember all of those games came at home.  The pitcher (Jeff Samardzija) drove in three runs last night and, sadly, he won't be in the lineup again tonight.  Fernandez should rule the night here and that will be enough for the road team to even up the series. 10* Miami

10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET):  Apparently, Colorado didn't read any of the season previews which all had them listed among the six bottom-feeders in the National League. They're off to a surprising 9-7 start after beating the Dodgers last night (7-5), but I think we're about to see a "sense of normalcy" kick in for the Rockies, starting tonight, as they have to go up against the sensational Kenta Maeda.  Furthermore, the Rockies have still been outscored by five runs on the season, which to me says they are a little fortunate to have a winning record. Compare that run differential to the Dodgers' +18 (4th best in baseball) and you'll quickly understand that the half-game separation between these two in the standings is totally misleading. I'm counting on the road team to bounce back here. 

It all starts w/ Maeda, who through three starts has a 0.47 ERA and 0.947 WHIP.  Last time out saw him allow a run for the first time all season (19 IP), but one run was all he allowed and the team beat the Giants 3-1 (that was the Sunday Night game and I backed him).  Maeda did post a season-worst four walks, but at the same time posted a season-high seven strikeouts.  Of course, this will be his first career start at hitter-friendly Coors Field, but he figures to be supported well by a Dodgers lineup that is scoring 5.0 runs per game on the road so far.  Off a loss, this team is an outstanding 91-55 the L3 seasons.

Perhaps, it is Colorado's starter (Tyler Chatwood) that needs to be more concerned about the hitter-friendly conditions of his home park. I say that because in his lone Coors Field start thus far, Chatwood allowed five runs and 11 hits in only six innings of work.  I'm still scratching my head over his most recent performance as he went to Wrigley Field and tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball as the Rockies upset the Cubs 2-0.  What has to be concerning here for manager Walt Weiss is that Chatwood threw 100 pitches against the Cubs, the first time he's thrown that many in a start since late in the 2013 season.  I expect him to be ineffective tonight and for the Dodgers to show who the better team is in the National League West. 10* LA Dodgers

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): At "long last," the Yankees broke their losing streak last night (at three games), but still this is a ballclub that has just two wins in its last nine games overall.  Last night's 6-3 victory marked just the fourth time this season that they topped four runs. One of those runs came via Jacoby Ellsbury's steal of home, however, there were still enough positive signs coming out of yday's game to come back and endorse the Pinstripes here. As an "added bonus," they have Masahiro Tanaka on the bump this afternoon and he's never lost in three career starts vs. the Rays.  Working on a full five days rest here, Tanaka should be at his best and that should be more than enough for the Yanks to win again

Through 16 games, the Tampa Bay offense has scored only 55 runs. Only three teams - the White Sox, Angels and Phillies - have scored fewer here in 2016.  The fact that they are hitting below .200 (.194) against right-handed starters does not bode well for a matchup with Tanaka, who as I said earlier has never lost to them.  He has a 2.70 ERA in three career matchups with the Rays and has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of his three starts so far in 2016.  The team has won each of his last two outings and is now 31-17 with him on the mound the L3 seasons.

Tampa Bay counters with Blake Snell, who is making his big league debut here.  Snell certainly carries a lot of promise, but this is a big step up.  The Yankees typically have one of the highest scoring offenses in the game and are averaging 4.7 runs per game here in the Bronx.  Furthermore, Joe Girardi's club has gone 65-49 in day games the last three seasons. Snell figures to get little in the way of run support as the scuffling TB lineup has scored three runs or less in seven of its last nine games.  I look for Snell to struggle in his first big league outing and for the Yankees to post B2B victories for the first time since a 4-2 start to the season.  8* NY Yankees

9* Under Mariners/Angels (10:05 ET): Note that there has been a pitching change for the Mariners, Felix Hernandez to Hisashi Iwakuma. The play still stands! But how about tonight's starter for the Angels? Nick Tropeano has a 0.84 ERA in his two starts so far, having allowed just one run in 10+ IP.  Therefore, with the way the Angels have been hitting (or should I say have NOT been hittng?), this looks like an easy Under call to me.  The Seattle offense, which typically fails to show up for him anyway, has been held to three runs or fewer in 10 of 15 games this season.  Again, go with the Under.

The Angels won yday despite scoring only three runs themselves and have now seen the Under cash in each of their last five games.  Only once during that time have they scored more than three runs and that game resulted in a 7-0 shutout win for them anyway. Though Mike Trout is 5 for 6 at the plate the L2 games, I don't see the rest of lineup getting back on track here against Iwakuma. The Halos offensive numbers so far have been downright woeful as they are batting just .200 at home and have just 13 hits the L3 games. 

Seattle scored 10 runs yday, but that was the same number that they had scored in their previous four games combined.  None of Hernandez's three starts this year have seen more than five total runs scored and the pitcher has certainly done his part by allowing only nine hits in 18 innings and four runs, two unearned.  But it's a similar story with Tropeano for the Angels as both of his starts have stayed Under.  Tropeano has given up only four extra base hits in the two starts and like Hernandez, no home runs.   Seattle comes in hitting just .222 for the season and has an on base percentage lower than .300.  This has all the makings of a pitcher's duel and a low-scoring affair.  9* Under Mariners/Angels

9* Cleveland (7:10 ET):  Interestingly, both Cleveland sports teams (Cavs and Indians) will be in Detroit tonight. The disappointing Indians arrive in the Motor City a game below .500 following yday's 10-7 loss in extra innings to the Mariners. Unlike the Cavs, the Tribe are not favored here, but they are a great value, especially w/ Josh Tomlin on the mound.  Detroit, meanwhile, sends Justin Verlander to the hill. One bad start has skewed his numbers, but the fact is it's been two years since he's been able to beat Cleveland. It's been a pretty good start to the season overall for the Tigers, but the offense was shut out yday (4-0 in Kansas City) and figures to not do much here either. I look for the Indians to come in and take tonight's opener.

Because of rain, Tomlin has made only one start so far this season. It was a gem as he allowed just one run on four hits last Saturday against the Mets and the result was a 7-5 win for the Tribe.  Since then, the team has dropped three of four, but it was nice to see the offense come alive Thursday after scoring just six runs total the previous three games. The Indians probably won't need to score many runs tonight considering the way Tomlin has pitched dating back to last August.  He has a 9-1 TSR his L10 starts, allowing 2 ER or fewer seven times.  One of those was against Detroit, who he went the distance against while allowing just one run on four hits.  I'll look for something similar here tonight.

Cleveland was expected to compete for not just the division title, but also the AL pennant, this year. So they need to get things going in a hurry.  Fortunately, they've fared well in the recent past vs. Verlander, who is 0-4 w/ a 5.19 ERA his last seven starts against them.  After allowing seven runs in 4 1/3 IP vs. Pittsburgh on April 11th, Verlander looked as if he might be in for another disastrous outing Saturday vs. Houston as he gave up a pair of first inning home runs.  But the offense bailed him and he did wind up settling down after that.  Still though, I'm not necessarily ready to "buy" the Tigers, who had only five hits in yday's game. The Indians are 10-6 the L3 seasons after giving up 10+ runs the previous game. 9* Cleveland

8* Toronto (7:05 ET):  Oakland has been very impressive on the road thus far (6-0!) and will be sending ace Sonny Gray to the mound this evening in Toronto. The A's have won five in a row overall and are coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Yankees, in New York. But it's a step up in class here as they face the team that in many people's mind is the favorite to win the American League. Toronto may be coming off B2B losses at Baltimore, but I certainly like what I've seen from tonight's starter - Aaron Sanchez - so far this season. Furthermore, you have to expect that the vaunted Blue Jays lineup is ready to explode now that they're back home where they are averaging 4.5 runs per game (5.6 rpg last year!). Go w/ the home team.

Let's talk more about Sanchez, shall we? Through three starts, he's posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. His last time out, he allowed just one run on two hits over seven innings of work and the team beat the Red Sox 7-2.  Shockingly though, that was the first time that the team won w/ Sanchez starting as they failed to provide him w/ any real support in his first two starts. Still though, he's allowed just 1 ER in all three starts and has 20 K's in 20 IP.  In the past, Oakland has had a tough time hitting Toronto starting pitching. They have lost six straight times to the Blue Jays w/ the Toronto starters posting a superb 2.20 ERA. This will be Sanchez's first time starting against the A's, but he did throw two scoreless innings of relief against them last season.

As far as the hitting is concerned, the Blue Jays went just 2 for 20 w/ RISP the L2 days in Baltimore. I suspect things will go a lot better in the department now that they're back home.  While Gray is tempting at the underdog price, be aware that he threw 114 pitches his last time out and has lost four straight starts on the road (dating back to the end of last year) thanks to a 6.64 ERA. Overall, Oakland's numbers on the road are set to decline as I can't see them continuing to hold opponents under two runs per game, especially this one.  8* Toronto

8* Pittsburgh (9:10 ET):  This series has certainly not brought the results that the Pirates - or anyone, for that matter - would have anticipated as they've dropped both games here in San Diego.  This is their final chance to earn a win at the lowly Padres expense and I like their chances w/ ace Gerrit Cole on the bump despite the fact he's started the season 0-2. San Diego's James Shields has an 0-3 team start record himself w/ similar numbers, so it's not like we need to be overly fearful of him.  The Padres offense has scored 13 times so far in this series, but they are still only batting .218 for the year here at Petco Park. Meanwhile, the Bucs lead all of MLB in team batting average. I anticipate a big offensive day from them here and for Cole to earn his first victory of 2016.

Cole has certainly always enjoyed pitching on the West Coast, which is where he originally hails from. In his last five road starts against the NL West, he's 5-0 w/ a 2.14 ERA and his ERA is 2.04 his last three starts vs. San Diego. No member of the Padres lineup, with the exception of John Jay, has much experience against Cole and remember that this is an offense that had scored just 11 runs - total - in six games prior to this series getting underway.  The only other time that San Diego has posted B2B victories this season, they promptly went out and lost their next time out (6-3 to the Rockies), also in a series finale.

The Pirates continue have their chances to score, they just haven't come through as with runners in scoring position, the team batting average is just .174 in the series. For the season, they are hitting just .229 w/ RISP, a huge discrepancy from the overall team batting average. I anticipate that to be rectified sooner rather than later.  Shields' KW ratio is way down this year (2.0) and he's allowed four home runs in his last two starts. Furthermore, he walked four batters his last time out and that was here at home. Of his 16 starts last year here at Petco, only nine were quality as he posted a subpar 1.363 WHIP. I just can't see the Pirates getting swept here by what is clearly an inferior opponent.  8* Pittsburgh

10* Under Royals/Tigers (7:15 ET):  Detroit has posted the American League's second best run differential (+14) up to this point and is coming off a 3-2 win (as +120 ML dogs) yday here at Kauffman Stadium.  But the Tigers figure to struggle at the plate tonight, facing Edinson Volquez, who through three starts has been perfect (3-0 TSR) w/ a 2.04 ERA and 1.188 WHIP. Now Ventura did have his share of struggles against this lineup last year and the Tigers have since added Justin Upton (.470 career hitter vs. Volquez).  But, I wouldn't be too worried about the Upton factor here as he's struck out in every game this season and nine times in the last four games alone. Last night was a low-scoring game between these two teams and that's what I'm anticipating again here tonight.  Take the Under.

As an Under player, what I would have been worried about here is Tigers' starter Mike Pelfrey, were it not for his last start. After a rocky outing to open 2016, Pelfrey bounced back last Friday by allowing just one run and five hits over 6 IP at Houston. Unfortunately for him, the team lost the game, but that's of no matter as the final score was 1-0 (team was up against Dallas Keuchel).  Now Pelfrey did have some control issues (six walks) against the Astros, but that's highly uncommon as he hadn't walked more than two batters in any of his last 14 starts dating back to last season. The Kansas City lineup he faces here hasn't been scoring a ton, save for the opening game of this series, and is just 21st in on base percentage. They are also just 19th in runs scored.

Volquez has allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of his three starts to this point.  Last time out (against Oakland), he allowed only four hits in six innings.  He was even better his last time starting here at home as he mowed down Minnesota, recording 10 K's in 5 2/3 IP.  His first start of the year came on Opening Night and saw him throw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball.  The Under is perfect, just like his team start record, through three starts and one would have to all the way back to September 19th to find the last time a game involving Volquez saw more than nine total runs scored.  10* Under Royals/Tigers

10* Over Angels/White Sox (2:10 ET):  For a second straight start, Chris Sale carried the White Sox to victory yday, a 2-1 decision over the Angels.  Runs have been rather scarce in this series w/ two shutouts and yday's game seeing just three total runs scored. Both clubs are riding four-game Under streaks and in the case of Chicago, the Under is 8-1 their last nine games. Incredibly, their pitching staff has allowed one or zero runs in six of those games, but today sees the starter that was on the mound for that lone Over toeing the rubber again and that's John Danks, who carries a poor 7.94 ERA and 1.589 WHIP (two starts) into today's game. So, I'll be defying recent team results and instead take into account who the starters are here, not just Danks, but the opposing pitcher as well. 

The Angels will be handing over the baseball to Jered Weaver here and that's problematic given his level of performance on the road the last two seasons. Weaver had the highest ERA of any starter in baseball on the road last season (6.01) and he isn't exactly off to a great start to 2016 either. Last time out, pitching on the road, he surrendered four runs and eight hits (in only 4 1/3 innings) to a Minnesota team that had really been struggling at the plate. Looking only at his road starts, there were six different times in 2015 that Weaver lasted six innings or less and allowed at least five runs.  He has pitched well in the past against the White Sox, but this is also no longer the same pitcher from just a few year's back. 

The White Sox rotation has been amazing to this point, but that's no thanks to Danks, who is now 1-9 w/ a 5.06 ERA his L12 starts.  He allowed five runs his last time out - including a pair of homers - in a 7-2 loss to the Rays.  I realize that the Angels have been struggling at the plate recently, but this is a pitcher that should allow them to turn things around.  In his most recent start against Los Angeles - back in August - Danks allowed four runs in seven innings. I look for this to be the highest scoring game of the series.  10* Over Angels/White Sox

9* Cleveland (6:10 ET):  The Indians won for me yday (by a score of 3-2) and I'll come right back with them again this evening as they send Danny Salazar to the bump.  I don't think people realize just how "pitching rich" Cleveland is.  Yesterday, they sent out Carlos Carrasco and he allowed just one run in 6 1/3 innings. Today, they have the luxury of following up with Salazar, who has won both of his starts this year while turning in a 0.79 ERA and 0.971 WHIP. All this great starting pitching is trouble for a Mariners team that has now scored three runs or fewer in 9 of its 13 games so far.  Unless Felix Hernandez is out there, they simply won't win many games with that kind of offensive production.  Go with the Tribe here.

Salazar is also 12-6 all-time here at Progressive Field where he has yet to pitch in 2016.  His first start came in chilly Chicago and while the pitch count was high, Salazar allowed only one run on two hits. He was even better last Thursday in Tampa Bay, delivering six scoreless innings of shutout ball w/ nine strikeouts.  The team won those games by a combined 13-1 margin.  Salazar's strikeout numbers for his career are very impressive as he averages 9.95 K's per nine innings, thus I imagine he'll have little difficulty mowing down a Mariners lineup that has struck out 33 times in the last three games and is batting a collective .219 for the year.

In contrast to Salazar, both of Taijuan Walker's starts thus far have come at home.  The Seattle starter has pitched well, but has yet to factor into a decision due to some bullpen issues. Here, he'll be running into a Cleveland lineup that is scoring 6.2 runs per game against right-handed starters.  Walker's margin for error here is quite slim as his team has dropped seven of its last 10 games and has only once scored more than four runs during that time. Cleveland is a team that I anticipate will be very good this season and thus I see them continuing to take care of business in this series.  They get a huge break not having to face Hernandez and it sounds like OF Lonnie Chisenhall could be in the lineup for the first time all season today, which is a strong addition to the lineup. 9* Cleveland