8* Run Line NY Mets (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Mets +1.5. Yes, it's a bit scary to try and fade the Dodgers right now (21-3 since July 4th!) and tonight's game bears significance in that it is Yu Darvish's debut wearing "the Blue." But at this price, getting Jacob deGrom and an additional 1.5 runs to work with (at home!) is simply too good to pass up. Plus, I'm not sold that there eventually won't be some "buyer's remorse" w/ Darvish as his Texas tenure ended in somewhat disastrous fashion w/ him giving up 10 runs in just 3 2/3 IP against a Miami team that is certainly not to be feared. The Mets lineup is capable of scoring and should give deGrom enough here that they do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Take the 1.5. 

The Mets just dropped two of three in Colorado (tough place to play) w/ both losses coming by one run. They lost Thursday on a bases loaded walk. Tuesday's loss, also by a 5-4 score, also came in the final at-bat. So, the reality is that the Mets came very close to handing Colorado its first losing home series in over a month. (The win came by a score of 10-5 Wednesday, so they actually scored more runs than they gave up in the series). Again, I'm not too concerned w/ the runs allowed side of the ledger this evening, not w/ deGrom on the bump. He had won eight straight starts prior to taking the loss his last time out, a one-run decision. He's still allowed 2 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. He comes in w/ a 2.27 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 10 home starts this year. While he's never beaten LA in five career regular season tries, deGrom has posted in a 2.94 ERA in those starts. 

The Dodgers have the best record in baseball (76-32) and have outscored the opposition by 187 runs over the course of the year. Impressive as that sounds, the club has certainly enjoyed some good fortune in '17, getting career years from a number of players and going 19-10 in one-run games. Sure, the last time they lost a game to a team other than the Braves was July 2nd! They are an insane 41-7 their L48 games overall, but I'll point out that exactly half (7) of their last 14 wins have come by a one-run margin. Also, they aren't nearly as dominant on the road as they are at home. There's going to be a lot of pressure here on Darvish, whose TSR w/ Texas was only 9-13 this year. Let's also note that there is some fanfare here on the Mets side w/ top prospect Amed Rosario making his Citi Field debut tonight. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): I've been "spot on" in this series so far (took the Angels in both games) and will call for them to finish off the sweep tonight. Yes, the Phillies came into Tuesday riding a 5-game win streak (2nd longest of the season!). But they were in a horrible spot, having to go cross-country in a day, as their series w/ Atlanta didn't conclude until Monday afternoon. The Angels had the edge of having Monday off and took full advantage by winning the series opener, 7-1. They scored seven more runs last night, this time holding the Phillies to none. So it's been a real lopsided series to date and I see no reason why that should change Thursday as the Angels have arguably their best starter going and as I've made clear over the L2 days - Philly is just a bad baseball team (worst record in all of MLB). 

The Phillies are very bad on the road (16-38) and have really struggled in IL play this season, going 4-12. They've been outscored by a full run per game away from home this year and AL teams are beating them by an average of 2.2 rpg! Last night marked the seventh time this season that they've been shutout. Considering the price tag on the Halos each of the last two nights, this seems like a real bargain w/ Philip Bridwell on the bump. The Angels have won the last four times Bridwell has started and his overall TSR is 7-1. Few, including the organization saw this (his success) coming, but a 0.823 WHIP in his L3 starts is no fluke. Each of those L4 starts have been quality as last time out he held Toronto to just one run on three hits over 7+ IP. It was his longest - and perhaps most impressive - outing to date. 

The Phillies have essentially given up on 2017 and rightfully so. They will trot out the youngest team in the majors the rest of the way w/ most of the players auditioning for next year. That will help over the long-term, but there will be growing pains in the short-term. Already this series has seen their best pitcher (Aaron Nola) get beat, so I don't have much faith in tonight's starter Jerad Eickhoff, even though the team has won each of his last two times out. But both of those starts were at home, the last one coming against lowly Atlanta. Eickhoff has also yet to win on the road (0-8 TSR!) and there's no real "hard luck" involved there as his ERA is 5.17 and his WHIP is 1.425. He gave up three home runs his last road start and Saturday saw him walk as many batters as he struck out (3). 8* LA Angels

10* Seattle (8:10 ET): Kansas City came into its previous series (at Baltimore) on a real roll (had won 10 of 11!), but the "sharp dollars" lined up against them on a game by game basis (I went against them twice) and they wound up on the wrong end of a three-game sweep at Camden Yards (outscored 15-3). Now they'll return home (for the first time in over a week) to host a team that they swept last month, Seattle. The Mariners lost yday, 5-1 at Texas, but overall the current road trip had gotten off to a pretty good start (won previous two days) and overall they'd won four in a row prior to yday's loss. If you're a regular, then you know that I'm a big fan of the revenge angle (for a sweep of 3+ games) and I'll support it here w/ a play on the underdog. 

Thursday night will mark the first time Trevor Cahill has started at Kauffman Stadium. Recently acquired in a trade from the Padres, Cahill's 1st start in a Royals uniform did not go so well as he allowed five runs and eight hits (two HR's) in just 4 IP. That game was actually KC's only loss in the 11-game stretch that predated the Orioles' series. Remember, it's a difficult transition for a pitcher going from the National to the American League (has to face DH). Cahill's 4-0 home record this year (0.72 ERA and 0.880 WHIP) is irrelevant now that he's out of the friendly pitching confines of Petco Park. The Royals' offensive decline from the last series is also a concern here as they managed only 15 hits in the 27 innings at Baltimore. Remember what I said the L2 times I went against this team - they are "average" at best.

Seattle is just 1.5 games back of KC for the 2nd Wild Card in the AL. I don't think either of these teams will end up getting it (will be either TB or LA), but the M's are definitely playing better now than they have all year. Whereas KC has been outscored this season (-12 run diff), Seattle is dead even in scoring compared to its opponents in 2017. They boast both the pitcher (James Paxton) and reliever (Edwin Diaz) of the month (July) on its roster. Paxton and Felix Hernandez will go the next two days, but tonight it will Yovani Gallardo, who beat Jacob deGrom his last time out by allowing just one run over 5 2/3 IP. Offensively, the Mariners are the superior club here as well. 10* Seattle

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Bucs' struggles against the Reds this year are nothing short of astounding. Not only have they dropped the first two games of this series (at home!), but they are now just 1-8 head to head w/ their NL Central rival this season. That makes little to no sense considering Cincy is just 35-62 against everyone else in the league. But, as I pointed out in yday's analysis, the Bucs are coming off B2B disappointing series against the Padres and Giants (two teams worse than the Reds), both times dropping two out of three. But, at PNC Park, I just can't see them getting swept. Not by Cincinnati, who is 19-34 on the road while being outscored by over a full run per game. I'll call for the Pirates' offense to "wake up" tonight and thus they'll avoid what would be an embarrassing sweep. 

The Pirates offense has been a major reason why the team is struggling to beat bad teams of late. Take the first two games of this series for example. After scoring in the bottom of the 1st on Tuesday, they would go another 13 innings w/o scoring a single run. Last night saw them tie the game in the bottom of the 6th, 2-2, but the bullpen couldn't hold. Looking back, the Pirates are batting a collective .210 their last seven games and have scored three runs or fewer SIX times during that stretch. Not surprisingly, the one exception represents their lone win (7-1 Sunday at San Diego) in the last week. I look for the slump to end today against Sal Romano, who walked SIX batters his last time out, the third time in five starts he's had more walks than K's. Not to be confused w/ the "Mad Men" character of the same name, Romano has a 1.707 WHIP overall.

Chad Kuhl gets the starting nod here for the Bucs and he's allowed 2 ER or less eight times in his L11 starts. So, he should be able to keep the Pirates in this one, something that Tuesday's starter (Jameson Taillon) failed to do. Kuhl has not allowed a single HR in his L5 starts, which is huge b/c the long ball is primarily how the Reds have been scoring in this series so far. Yes, the Pirates have struggled to score at home all season long. But I believe they'll score just enough in this one to get the 'W.' 8* Pittsburgh

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): As I anticipated, the Angels took full advantage of a favorable spot last night, beating the Phillies 7-1 in the opener of a three-game series. Philadelphia came in riding high off a sweep of the Braves and had won five in a row overall (2nd longest win streak of the season!). But they were also playing w/o rest after wrapping up that series vs. the Braves and had to make the cross-country flight. Meanwhile, the Angels had Monday off. That edge may not exist for tonight, but the Angels are still the better team - by a wide margin. Therefore, I'll come right back with them again tonight.

In case you haven't looked at the standings in awhile, the Phillies still have the worst overall record in all of baseball at 39-65. Yes, it's true that a number of teams have worst run differentials, which is a better indicator of overall play, but the fact remains the Phillies are a very bad team. They are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by nearly a full run per game. They are also just 4-11 in Interleague Play this season. They also don't have a very good starter on the hill tonight. Jake Thompson, who went 3-6 w/ a 5.40 ERA last season, made his first big league start last week against Atlanta. While the Phils did win 10-3 and Thompson threw five scoreless innings, note he did allow seven baserunners. The Phillies' bullpen is also not good by the way.

Don't be scared off due to price range on the Angels here either. Yesterday actually marked the first time all year that they were higher than -175 on the money line! The win improved them to 8-2 in that range the L3 seasons. Yes, it's a small sample size but also indicative of how the Angels peform against bad teams (obviously that's the only time they are going to be this high on the ML. Tonight's starter JC Ramirez actually leads the staff in wins w/ 11. He was a hard luck loser his last time out (2-1 to Indians), but has also gone at least six innings while allowing four runs or fewer four straight starts. He should get plenty of run support here as the Angels are averaging 6.0 rpg over the last week. 8* LA Angels

8* Run Line St. Louis (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Cards +1.5. St. Louis was my only loss yday, but they only lost by one run, so in that regard this play certainly makes a lot of sense. The loss was a "double whammy" of sorts for the Redbirds, who are now not only 3.5 games back of the Brew Crew, but also 5.5 behind the first place Cubs (who also won Tuesday) in the NL Central. The Wild Card, at this point, looks like an unrealistic goal. So the division is their only shot to make the playoffs and thus this series takes on an added importance. Yes, I realize the same holds true for Milwaukee, but as discussed in yday's analysis, these two clubs rate virtually even (almost identical run differentials). Therefore, the "added insurance" that the RL provides seems to be a nice luxury to have in this one.

Note that all three runs that the Brewers scored off of Carlos Martinez last night came in the first inning. That three-run inning held as St. Louis could only muster a pair of runs, although they dd outhit the Brewers for the game, 7-5. After that 1st inning, all Milwaukee's lineup could manage was a pair of infield singles. While losing like that w/ (arguablly) your best starter on the hill is tough, it also bodes well for tonight's starter Luke Weaver, who makes his second start replacing the injured Adam Wainwright in the rotation. Weaver's first start was not great as he allowed four runs in 5 IP, but it also didn't help that his offense was shutout. His only mistake was a grand slam, which obviously accounted for all the runs allowed. "I thought Luke did a terrific job," manager Mike Matheny said. "His stuff looked sharp. It was one rough inning there." I'd agree w/ that assement and look for better overall results tonight. 

Milwaukee will counter w/ Brent Suter, a pitcher that has all of a sudden caught fire. He hasn't lost over his L5 turns and has a 1.50 ERA. He was dominant his last time out, holding the Cubs w/o a run for seven innings of four-hit ball. But that kind of performance will be difficult to replicate. The Cards actually saw Suter in his first start of the year and were able to scored three times off him in only 4 2/3 IP. For the record, only the Phillies have played more one-run games this season than the Cardinals' 36. Three of their last four games have been decided by one run as have five of their L10. Three of Milwaukee's last four games have also been decided by one run. No worse than a one-run loss here for the road team. 8* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5)

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates string of disappointing performances against less than stellar competition continued on Monday w/ an embarrassing 9-1 loss to the Reds at home. Previously, the Bucs had dropped two of three at San Diego and two of three at San Francisco, two of the only three teams in the National League w/ a worse overall record than the Reds. Cincy has given Pittsburgh a curious amount of trouble in 2017 as yday's win gives them a 7-1 edge in the season series. Clearly, if you're a Bucs fan, this is NOT what you wanted to see for the stretch run, particularly after the team came out of the All-Star Break by winning seven of eight. But they can still salvage what should have been an advantageous stretch of games. Take them here. 

  Home teams don't like being embarrassed in the manner the Pirates were yday, so there should be some increased motivation here. Not to mention, the Pirates still only trail the Cubs by 6.5 games in the NL Central standings. Charged w/ turning this thing around tonight is starter Trevor Williams, who was a hard-luck loser his last time out. In a 2-1 loss to the Giants, Williams gave up just one run on five hits in 6 IP. While he has a 4.12 ERA here at PNC Park, his 1.118 WHIP indicates he's pitched better than that. The Reds have not faced him in '17. Also, take out a rough first start of the year (had been working out of the bullpen) and Williams' numbers get even better.

The Reds are not a good team, which is obvious by their 18-34 record and the fact they've been outscored by an average of 1.2 rpg in those contests. Tonight marks the first time they've been off B2B wins since the All-Star Break. So, now seems like a really nice time to fade. Especially w/ Robert Stephenson on the hill. A reliever previously, Stephenson has had difficulty adjusting to his new role of starter. This will be the third try and I don't think it will be the charm considering his 7.45 ERA and 2.174 WHIP so far. He's only lasted a total of 9 2/3 innings as well, which means the poor Reds' bullpen will come into play. Considering this team's awful 36-62 record against every team besides Pittsburgh, their mastery in the season series is confounding to say the least. 8* Pittsburgh

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Phillies come into this game riding a five-game win streak (just swept Atlanta), which is their second longest win streak of this entire season! (They won 6 straight back in late April, a streak which also included a sweep of the Braves, coincidentally). They would also appear - on paper - to have the edge in starting pitching for tonight's series opener against the Angels. But you don't have to work for MLB's scheduling department to realize this is a HORRID spot for the Phils as they have to make the cross-country trip in 24 hours while the Halos are rested (had Monday off). Even w/ the five-game win streak, Philly still has the worst record in baseball mind you, at 39-64. That includes a 16-36 mark on the road and 4-10 in Interleague Play. 

The Angels are a team I believe can make a push for that second Wild Card in the American League, a race that remains wide open. After taking the first two games in Toronto over the weekend, they lost 11-10 on Sunday, but offense certainly wasn't a problem w/ a total of 26 runs scored in the three game series. Offense has been an issue for this team in 2017 (27th in runs scored!), but remember they were also w/o Mike Trout for a significant period of time. With 19 of the next 28 games at home, this is the time to make their move. What about the other side of the ledger (pitching), though? Well, Ricky Nolasco has had his issues w/ the long ball, but I also watched him (in person) pitch well against Cleveland last Wednesday. Though the team lost 10-4, that's misleading as the bullpen came in and did a horrendous job. Going back, four of Nolasco's last six starts have been quality and one of them was a complete game shutout here at home. He's also had to pitch opposite some of the best pitchers in the AL, like Chris Sale and Carlos Carrasco. 

Here, Nolasco will face a National League lineup that averages less than 4.0 rpg. Sure, the Phils get to benefit from the DH in this series, but will that be enough to counteract their usual road woes? I think not. Plus, there's a "market correction" that's likely to take place sooner rather than later w/ the Phils as a team that has the worst overall record in baseball isn't going to start winning consistently all of a sudden. All five wins came at home and sweeping Atlanta really isn't all that impressive, especially when you consider the last three have all been by one run! Aaron Nola is off a very strong July and has a 1.49 ERA/0.972 WHIP his L7 starts. But the team is just 3-5 when he starts on the road and he had control issues (4 walks) in his one start at an AL park this year. This is not just a game, but a series where I really like the home team. 8* LA Angels

10* St. Louis (7:40 ET): Turning to the NL Central, the Brewers have been on top of the Cardinals for virtually all of 2017. But by no means is that any kind of definitive statement that the Brew Crew are the better ballclub. In fact, their run differentials have been fairly comparable throughout and entering today, the Cards' is slightly better (by one run!). St. Louis has allowed the fewest number of runs in the division this year, so if they can get their offense on track, making the playoffs is not out of the question. They scored only five runs in four games vs. Arizona over the weekend (at home!), but still walked away w/ a series split. Fortunately for them, Milwaukee scored only five runs in three games vs. the Cubs, losing twice. Furthermore, they have failed to get a hit in their L31 chances w/ RISP! Not only do I feel the Cards have the better starting pitcher tonight, but I feel they are the better team overall! 

Carlos Martinez might have a 10-11 team start record attached to his name, but that is misleading as he checks in w/ a 3.52 ERA and 1.190 WHIP. In each of his last two starts, he's gotten the kind of offensive support we are looking for tonight w/ the Cards scoring a total of 21 runs in those games and winning both. Last time out, Martinez struggled some, giving up 5 ER in 6 IP, but he did have 8 K's and that was his most in any July start. Typically, he has always pitched well against Milwaukee as he has 5-2 record w/ a 1.75 ERA all-time. The last time he faced them was May 2nd when he held them w/o a run for seven innings and to only four hits. Considering the way the Brewers' lineup has struggled of late, I expect a quality start from Martinez here. 

The Brew Crew came out of the All-Star Break by winning B2B games over lowly Philadelphia. That got them to a season-best 11 games over .500, but since then they're just 3-11. Jimmy Nelson is probably the wrong starter to try and turn things around, at least when facing St. Louis. I say that because Nelson has NEVER beaten the Redbirds in 11 career tries, going 0-8 w/ a 7.01 ERA. That's the key here. The Cards have already beaten him twice in '17, scoring seven times off him in 11 innings. Nelson has been hurt by a lack of run support this season and it certainly doesn't help that his offense comes into this series batting a collective .196 over the last week. They have not scored more than two runs in four consecutive contests. 10* St. Louis

8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): I took the Orioles last night and sharp money moved them to a slight favorite before the first pitch. They won 2-1, in walkoff fashion, as Craig Gentry singled home the GW run. Though it took them until the final at-bat to take their first and only lead, that was an impressive win for the Orioles as Kansas City came in as winners of 10 of 11. The much maligned Ubaldo Jimenez held the Royals to just one run on five hits (7 IP) and as I keep saying, this is a much different (i.e. better) team w/ Zach Britton occupying the backend of the bullpen. Yes, Baltimore has its issues (-71 run differential), but they are a better team at Camden Yards (31-21) and have an even better starter going tonight (Dylan Bundy). I look for them to make it two straight over KC.

Bundy had been the Orioles' rotation's most profitable starter until yday when Jimenez got the job done. Bundy certainly struggled some in July w/ only one quality outing out of four (allowed 5+ ER three times), but rarely does he pitch poorly in consecutive starts. He pitched well enough to win against Kansas City earlier this year, allowing just two runs and four hits in six innings, but unfortunately it was not enough as the O's fell 3-2 in what ended up being a series sweep for the Royals. That sweep set up yday's play, however, and now I feel it's time for a little payback from the Baltimore perspective. Remember what I said in yday's analysis too - despite their recent winning ways KC is nothing more than the definition of average. 

Royals starter Ian Kennedy has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, but that's in spite of a 4.32 ERA during that stretch. Granted, he's pitched well in two of those three starts. But his three career starts against the Orioles have resulted in a 6.17 ERA. Baltimore is one of three teams he's never beaten in his career. The Kansas City offense had been performing way above its normal production recently, so yday's "silence" at the plate was NOT a surprise to me. They remain tied for 22nd in runs scored and are 28th in OBP. I'll call for them to lose B2B games here, something that has not occurred in two weeks. 8* Baltimore

10* Under Rays/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston has been the class of the American League all season and remains my pick to win the World Series. But July has been a pretty mediocre month for them as they're just 14-9 overall (8-7 since Break) after a humbling 13-1 loss to the Tigers on Sunday. Another shaky performance from Lance McCullers leaves them probably in the market for another starter for the stretch run, but what about an offense that has scored a grand total of 15 times the L5 games? A curious factoid w/ this Astros team is that while they're 38-15 on the road (6.9 runs per game!), they're "only" 30-21 at home and the scoring average dips down to 4.8 rpg. Therefore, facing a Tampa Bay lineup that is batting a collective .219 its L7 games (3.6 rpg), an Under play seems more than reasonable in this spot.

The Rays avoided what would have been a four-game sweep at Yankee Stadium yday by winning 5-3, leading start to finish. But they're stil in dire need of a turnaround as they've ceded control of the second Wild Card spot in the American League to the Royals. Somewhat incredibly, the Rays' offense has scored more than five runs in a game just ONCE in the entire month of July. Fortunately for tonight, they'll have Alex Cobb on the mound to keep them in the game. Over his L3 starts, Cobb has a 1.99 ERA and 0.838 WHIP. He's allowed only 5 runs in 22 2/3 IP (all on home runs) and going back further he's 5-1 w/ a 2.24 ERA his L9 starts, eight of those being quality. The Under is also 5-0-1 his L6 starts. Another thing to like from the Rays perspective here is that their "new" bullpen (three recent additions) delivered five scoreless innings Sunday. 

Houston's lineup is nowhere near full strength right now as both Carlos Correa and George Springer are both out. Jose Altuve, as good as he is, can't continue to carry the offensive load all by himself and his numbers are certainly due to regress following an otherworldly July. The Astros have gone five straight games w/ nine hits or fewer and that was against the poor pitching staffs of the Phillies and Tigers. I do see tonight's starter, Charlie Morton, giving them a better start than what they got from McCullers yday. Morton actually has a 0.964 WHIP his L3 starts after he threw seven innings of shutout ball his last time out. He allowed only three hits and struck out nine batters. Yes, that came at a NL park, but it's not like the Rays' offense is substantially better as they would be tied for 8th in runs scored among the Senior Circuit. Only six teams have allowed fewer runs than the Astros this year, whose staff is 5th in WHIP and fourth in opponents' batting average. 10* Under Rays/Astros

8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Orioles +1.5. Back in early May, these two teams faced off (in Kansas City) and the Royals swept the three-game set, which in retrospect was the beginning of their turnaround. Here in Baltimore this week, I do NOT anticipating the Royals having the same level of success they did over two months ago. Sure, they arrive in Camden Yards having won 10 of 11 (only loss in extra innings) and are now a season-best seven games above .500. But the numbers show that this club is the definition of average as they've scored and allowed an identical number of runs over the course of the season. Baltimore may own one of the AL's worst run differentials, but they're a better team at home where their record is 30-21. They also just won B2B games in Texas. No worse than a one-run loss here for the home team.

The Royals remain fairly "offensively challenged" as they rank 22nd in runs scored and 28th in OBP. Yesterday's victory could be considered somewhat "fortunate" as they trailed 3-1 heading into the 8th, which is when Alex Gordon's two-run triple proved to be the difference in a four-run rally. Save for 16-2 and 16-4 wins over the Tigers, KC has hardly been dominating opponents during this 10-1 stretch of theirs. Something to keep an eye on is that while they've "cleaned up" as underdogs this season (+22.6 units), they have lost money as ML favorite (-8.7). This will also be just the second time ALL SEASON that they've been listed higher than -125 on the ML in a road game! So, oddsmakers have taken notice and we should react accordingly. Note that all three games these teams played at Kauffman Stadium back in May were decided by one run!

A big key for the Orioles moving forward is the return of closer Zach Britton to his regular closing role. For the first time since April, he worked consecutive games (Sat-Sun) and it's no coincidence that Baltimore won both. Ubaldo Jimenez will be starting things off tonight and in order to get to Britton, he'll have to pitch similar to how he did his last time out when he held the Rays to just two runs on three hits over 6 IP. I was also impressed by his season-high 9 K's in that start. Kansas City will be going w/ lefty Danny Duffy here. Mirroring his team's overall results, Duffy struggles a bit more on the road w/ a 4.09 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. He also remains a fairly low volume pitcher in terms of strikeouts. I think it's time the Royals started "giving some back." 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

8* Run Line San Francisco (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Giants +1.5. Madison Bumgarner is now the starter for San Fran as they try and avoid a sweep. Bumgarner used to be a somewhat "automatic" play, but this year (cut short by injury), he has a 1-6 team start record w/ that one win coming his last time out. That's somewhat emblematic of this "lost" season for the Giants, who are now 40-65 and have the second worst record and run differential in all of baseball. They enter tonight trailing the rival Dodgers by an astounding 33.5 games! Los Angeles has been on a remarkable roll not just of late (won 7 straight!), but for the last couple months as they are a stunning 38-6 their L44 games! But I still believe Bumgarner being on the hill "means something" and in this case, I feel the Giants will do no worse than a one-run loss and the big lefty does give them their best shot at a win in this series.

While he does have the 1-6 team start record, it should be pointed out that only one of MadBum's seven starts this year has not been quality. Last time out, he went only five innings, but gave up just one run (on six hits) as the Giants got the win, 11-3 over Pittsburgh. It was a much needed result for him and hopefully a turning point, at least for him individually. On the road this year, Bumgarner has a 2.89 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, so it's not as if he's pitched poorly. Nor has he pitched poorly in his career vs. LA as he owns a 14-9 record and 2.70 ERA in 27 career appearances. The Giants lost by just a run yday (2-1) and let's note they have played the third highest number of one-run games in all of baseball (32).

The Dodgers are 73-31 overall and have the best record in baseball for a variety of reasons. Chief among them is that they are getting career years from a number of key players. I do not believe their current pace is anywhere near sustainable and whether it's in the final two months of the regular season, or the playoffs, I believe some regression is inevitable. Furthermore, tonight are able to go against the one member of the starting rotation that has a losing record, that being Hyun-Jin Ryu, whose TSR is 6-8 and he has a 4.40 ERA and 1.452 WHIP. Rarely does Ryu go deep into games and he lasted just five innings in his own return from the DL, last time out. Bumgarner is the better starter in this one and that makes this one of the few times the Giants have a real fighting chance against their rival in 2017. By the way, the teams are 6-6 head to head this season w/ half of the games decided by one run! 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5)

10* Pittsburgh (4:40 ET): The Bucs have burned me, not once, but twice in this series so far. But I believe they'll avoid the sweep on Sunday. Apparently, they forgot to pack their bats for this West Coast trip, or rather lost them after the first game. I say that b/c, following a 10-3 win over the Giants on Monday, the team has scored three runs or fewer (eight total) in four consecutive losses to the Giants and Padres. In the context of this series, that's a real shame because they're up against the lowest-scoring team in baseball, who has the worst overall run differential as well. Then there's something I've discussed each of the last two days, which is the fact SD came into this series having actually been outscored by about a full run per game here at Petco Park (one of the worst marks in MLB), making their winning home record somewhat of a "mirage." On the flip side, Pittsburgh had a positive run differential on the road despite a losing record. In my opinion, a four-game win streak only makes the Padres better fade material as in my view they're still one of, if not THE, worst team in the sport. 

Gerrit Cole is a major reason to like the Pirates in this one. He should make sure that a SD offense which not only ranks last in runs scored, but also last in OBP, 29th in team batting average and 27th in slugging, stays anemic. Cole has a 4-0 TSR here in July, all quality starts, as he's allowed just seven runs in 25 IP. The native Californian is 5-1 his L8 starts w/ a 3.04 ERA (allowed 2 ER or less SEVEN times!). He's always pitched well vs. the Padres as is evident by a 1.52 ERA in four career starts against them. Cole was the starter the last time Pittsburgh won a game, so that should give the team some much needed confidence as they prepare to play the final game of what has been a very disappointing road trip. These four consecutive losses to two of the worst teams in baseball have really hurt the team's chances of remaining relevant, even in a weak NL Central.

San Diego's Clayton Richard probably deserves better than a 7-14 TSR as he's induced a NL best 247 ground ball outs this season. But he's still got a 5.37 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in those 21 starts and lately things have gone from "bad to worse" w/ a 9.86 ERA and 2.422 WHIP his last three. He's allowed a stunning 37 hits in 17 2/3 IP during that time. To put that number in its proper context, note that Cole has allowed only 44 hits over his L8 starts, a span of 50 1/3 IP. Therefore, I expect the Pirates' anemic offense to "wake up" on Sunday. The Padres are just 9-21 when on a win streak of 3+ games the L3 seasons (3-6 this season) and their only win streak longer than the current one (4 games) this season was 5 games, back on Memorial Day Weekend. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Atlanta (1:35 ET): The Phillies are in a position we don't see them in very often and that's on the precipice of a three-game sweep. The team w/ the worst overall record in MLB (37-64) is certainly used to being on the WRONG end of these situations, but this weekend we find them having taken the first two games at Atlanta's expense. I look for the Phils to fail to get the job done on Sunday. Overall, the club has won three in a row. The last time we saw them produce such a streak was early June when they won four in a row. The only other win streak of 4+ games this year occurred all the way back in April, a season-best six straight wins. The Braves have played better on the road this season and daytime starts are typically when knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (today's starter) is most effective.

Yesterday's game is really one that Atlanta let slip away as they allowed the Phillies to score a run in the both the 8th and 9th innings, which tied things up. Philly then won in the 11th. The Braves finished w/ the edge in hits (10-8) for the game and it should be noted the teams were also relatively even in that department (12-11 in Phils' favor) in a 10-3 game Friday. The series opener saw the home team strike w/ one big inning (7 runs), other than that we've basically seen in this series what we've largely seen all season from a lineup tied for 28th in runs scored. The good news for today is that Dickey has consistently pitched well in his career vs. the Phillies, turning in a 2.98 ERA in 14 starts, including a game back on 6.8 where he allowed only one run on three hits in 7 IP. He struck out eight while walking zero batters as well. Prior to allowing four runs to both Chicago and Arizona, Dickey had allowed 1 or 0 ER in five straight outings as well as six of the last seven. As mentioned before, his knuckleball is typically more effective in the daytime. 

The Phillies' counter w/ Vince Velasquez, who also allowed 4 ER in a shorter than expected start his last time out. Velasquez has pitched only twice since May due to an elbow injury, so this is somewhat of a "lost year" for him. In six home starts this season, his ERA is 6.82 and his WHIP is 1.649. Not good numbers, especially when considering the Phillies' offense is likely to regress - significantly - in this matchup. 8* Atlanta

10* Pittsburgh (8:40 ET): The Pirates quickly jumped out to a 2-0 lead last night here in San Diego, which had me thinking 3-0 sweep for the day (I'd already cashed both the Under on Rays-Yankees plus my *10* AL Game of the Month on the Rangers). But, sadly, from that point forward the Bucs did nothing - and I do mean nothing. They managed only one hit the rest of the game, facing Travis Wood and three different Padres' relievers, and ended up losing 3-2. That result kind of shocks me as SD has now won three in a row, unremarkable in the grand scheme of things, but for this team it's something to be celebrated. I said in yday's analysis that the Padres have the worst run differential in all of MLB (now -129) and that's still the case w/ only two other teams below -90. They are just 2-6 this season when on a win streak of 3+ games (8-21 L3 seasons!), so yday's win only serves to make them even better fade material for Saturday. Consider this is a "mea culpa" of sorts.

Something else I talked about yday was the respective records of Pittsburgh on the road and San Diego at home and how both were misleading. This three-game win streak actually has SD above .500 at Petco Park this season (27-25), but they're being outscored here by nearly a full run per game! To put that in its proper context, only three other teams in all of baseball - Toronto, Atlanta and Minnesota - are being outscored by a wider margin at home this season. (Look to fade all 4 down the stretch at home?). Meanwhile, the Pirates' losing road record (now 23-30) is also misleading in the sense that they have actually OUTSCORED the opposition in such games. Maybe I was wrong yday, but I still look for these discrepancies to be rectified over the remainder of the season. 

San Diego made a pitching change yday, turning to Wood instead of Dinelson Lamet. The latter will now go tonight. He's got a 7.36 ERA and 1.840 WHIP his L3 starts, so I'd look for the Bucs' bats to bounce back this evening. Speaking of bouncing back, that's what I look for Pittsburgh's starter Ivan Nova to do as well. Last time out, he was hit hard, allowing 7 ER in 5 IP. But that was at Coors Field, a far different environment than the one he will pitch in tonight. The Padres have the most anemic offense in the game, ranking last in runs scored and OBP, 29th in team batting average and 27th in slugging. Nova can stil claim to be having a quality season, despite what happened last time around, which was - easily - his worst effort to date. Prior to that, he'd never allowed more than 4 ER in any start this year. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Houston (6:10 ET): Coming into 2017, many (myself included) were high on the Astros, believing they had the roster construct to win a World Series. We're now four months into the season and it's clear that a lot of people knew what they were talking about. The Astros are now 68-34 w/ a +175 run differential, only bested in both categories by the Dodgers, a team that is getting a number of career years from different players. The Astros' run is even more remarkable when you consider they'd been w/o ace Dallas Keuchel the last month. Keuchel returned last night and the offense picked up up w/ a late rally, winning 6-5 here in Detroit after another meltdown by the Tigers' bullpen. The Astros' starting rotation also recently got another key component back, that being Colin McHugh, who will make just his second start of '17 today. I like the road team a lot in this one.

Shoulder problems kept McHugh sidelined the first four months of the season. He returned last Saturday at Baltimore and while McHugh did not factor into the decision, Houston won anyway 8-4. Certainly, McHugh could have been better as he allowed four runs in 4 2/3 IP, all of them coming on 2 HR's. But, after such a long layoff, you'd expect him to not be that sharp. For start #2, I'm projecting significant improvement. Keep in mind that this is a pitcher that has won 43 games the previous three seasons. The Astros' performance on the road this year has been nothing short of remarkable as they are now 38-13 and averaging 7.1 rpg (no other team averaging more than 5.6!). They are outscoring teams by 2.7 rpg away from home (that's incredible) and are 16-4 this year when priced between -125 and -175. The absence of Carlos Correa hasn't seemed to matter as Jose Altuve is putting up an "all-timer" month w/ a .506 batting average and 19-game hit streak! 

Meanwhile, I expect Detroit to be a seller at the trade deadline. Even in a weak AL Central, they are not a factor as the current four-game losing streak has them 11 games below .500. Their starter for Saturday is Mike Boyd, who recently became a father, but that's about the only positive development for him here in 2017. Yes, Boyd does have a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. But that's in spite of a 5.74 ERA and 1.468 WHIP, numbers right in line w/ his YTD performance. Prior to the team winning each of those L3 starts, they'd lost six straight times w/ him on the mound. The key has been scoring 24 runs those L3 starts, an average which can't be maintained and will certainly dip after tonight. All three starts were also on the road, against division foes. At home, Boyd has a 1-4 team start record. In two career starts against the Astros, his ERA is 7.20. This sets up as a complete mismatch on Saturday. 8* Houston

10* NY Mets (4:05 ET): Seattle had a bit of an edge heading into Friday's opener w/ the Mets in that they had Thursday off while the Mets finishing up a series in San Diego. But they failed to take advantage, losing 7-5 as they allowed the Mets to rally for three runs late (8th inning). This weekend's lone Interleague set continues Saturday and this time, it's the Metropolitans w/ what I believe is a clear edge, in the form of Jacob deGrom, who is as hot as any pitcher in baseball right now. deGrom comes into today w/ an 8-0 TSR his L8 starts. He's gone at least eight innings five times during the stretch and another win today would pull him into a tie for most in the National League. As you might have suspected, he's been pretty dominant during this stretch, allowing 1 or 0 ER six times.

Last time out, deGrom went eight full innings and gave up just two runs on five hits. I said he was being undervalued there (was only -160 facing the Padres) and the same holds true here. That last performance dropped his ERA and WHIP over his last three starts to 1.59 and 0.882 respectively. While adjustments must be made for pitching in an American League park, expect deGrom to also benefit here from some additional offensive support. The Mets have been one of the highest scoring teams on the road this year (5.3 rpg), ranking third overall in that department (trailing only Houston & Washington). Now they get to benefit from the use of the DH. In three games in AL parks this season, the Mets have totaled 19 runs. Overall, they are now 6-3 in Interleague Play.

Meanwhile, the Mariners have been struggling offensively of late, hitting a collective .217 the L7 games. That's not good news when sending Yovani Gallardo to the hill. The veteran has really struggled here in 2017. He has a 5-10 TSR in 15 starts w/ a 6.25 ERA and 1.575 WHIP. If that's not bad enough, his ERA and WHIP at home are 7.29 and 1.619, resulting in a 2-6 team start record. He returned to the rotation last Sunday and gave up three solo home runs here in a 6-4 loss to the Yankees. With all three HR's allowed being solo shots, he's fortunate to have not given up even more runs. Even worse, of the 15 outs recorded by Gallardo, only three were via ground ball. Keep in mind that he'd allowed 5 ER in three of his four starts previous to that one. This is a big pitching mismatch that is not being priced properly. 10* NY Mets

10* Texas (8:05 ET): A classic revenge spot here as the Rangers were swept up in Camden Yards last week and now get the Orioles in Arlington. The change in venue should lead to a swift change in results considering Baltimore's lousy 18-32 road record (30-21 at home). Furthermore, we know the O's should feel quite fortunate to even be within "sniffing distance" (five games under) .500 right now considering their YTD run differential is a terrible -74, third worst in the American League. They come into this series having dropped B2B games (at Tampa Bay) and four of six overall since the sweep of the Rangers, who are of course having a much different season this year compared to last. The 2016 club, which won 95 games, only outscored opponents by EIGHT runs over the course of the entire season. This year's team is three games below .500, but w/ a somewhat comparable +1 run diff. Texas has won four of six since getting swept in Baltimore, but obviously has some additional atonement on its mind after being humiliated (lost 22-10) by Miami here at home Weds night.

The starting pitching matchup appears to be drastically in the home team's favor here. I say that knowing full well that Chris Tillman beat Andrew Cashner back on 7.17. That was actually one of Tillman's better starts all year as he held the Rangers to just one run on two hits over six innings (did have four walks). But overall, it has been a disastrous year for the Baltimore starter as he comes into tonight w/ a 7.01 ERA and 1.940 WHIP in 13 overall starts. Mirroring his team's performance, Tillman has been just dreadful on the road, where he is winless in four tries and has a 12.34 ERA and 2.742 WHIP. The decline of Tillman was somewhat easy to foretell as LY's success at the betting window (T3 in net units!) did not match his ERA & WHIP, both of which were only average at best. He has a career 5.08 ERA pitching here in Arlington. 

Meanwhile, Cashner is having a solid July for Texas even though it hasn't really translated into the win column. Pitching opposite Tillman on 7.17, he allowed only three runs on six hits in 6 1/3 IP. He followed that up w/ another quality effort, this time getting the win as he held Tampa Bay to three runs and four hits in 6 IP last Saturday. Overall, Cashner has a 2.75 ERA and 1.068 WHIP here in July. The Rangers clearly have a bad taste in their mouths after the way the previous series ended, but the good news is that the offense scored 10 runs in B2B games! They are 23-14 the L3 seasons after allowing 10+ runs the previous game and here at home they average a healthy 5.6 rpg, one of the highest averages in all of MLB. I expect the home team to roll Friday night. 10* Texas

8* Under Rays/Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees are the highest scoring home team in the big leagues, but there's value on the Under here considering both the number and the fact it's a divisional matchup. Last night's game finished 6-5 (in the Yanks' favor), but went 11 innings after the home team tied the game in the bottom of the ninth. The Yanks are big favorites on the ML tonight, meaning there's a good chance we won't even have to play that final half inning, which often times can be the difference between a game staying Under or going Over (like we saw last night!). Take the Under. 

Pitching for Tampa Bay tonight will be Austin Pruitt, who has made only one start in 2017 and it came all the way back in April. It lasted just three innings, but he gave up just one hit and zero runs. Pruitt is pitching here because Jake Odorizzi is on the DL w/ back issues. He made five starts at Triple-A Durham and posted a 3.38 ERA there. While pitching at Yankee Stadium can be difficult, the Rays staff performed admirably last night, until the late innings at least.

Masahiro Tanaka has been hit hard twice by the Rays this year and has allowed the second most home runs among AL starters. But I look for him to pitch well tonight. TB comes in batting only .216 its L7 games. They've also failed to top five runs in each of the last 10 games. Also consider that last season, Tanaka was 4-0 w/ a 2.88 ERA in five starts vs. Rays, who hit just .194 off him. Tanaka's 1.132 WHIP at home is a positive number. Visitors have not shared in the Yankees' offensive prowess here in the Bronx this season, averaging just 4.2 rpg. 8* Under Rays/Yankees

8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Reds +1.5. This will be the second series between these two teams (both of whom are going nowhere) in the last week. Miami took two of three last weekend at Great American Ballpark, though I cashed in on the Reds the one time they were victorious (Sunday). I'll again back them here as we have a situation where the same two starting pitchers are squaring off for a second straight time. Not from the Sunday game mind you, but from a 5-4 win by the Marlins on Saturday. That game saw both starters - Chris O'Grady for Miami and Robert Stephenson for Cincy - turn in less than stellar performance. But b/c O'Grady's side won, he comes in overvalued and it helps that the Marlins are off a stunning 22 run effort last night in Texas. I say the Reds do no worse than a one-run loss in this one.

Lost in Miami's shocking offensive peformance Weds night is the fact their own pitching staff has surrendered a total of 20 runs the L2 games. This makes them quite the shaky ML favorite, even against a bottom-feeder like Cincinnati. O'Grady lasted only 4 2/3 innings and gave up three runs last Saturday, so he actually didn't even factor into the decision as the game was tied when he exited. He also issued SIX walks. Another troubling sign is that O'Grady is going less deep into games w/ each passing start. He went 5 1/3 his first start, then 5 his second and then just 4 2/3 last time out. He has a 5.40 ERA and 1.600 WHIP overall and his inability to go deep into games means trouble when you consider the bullpen has both been overworked and ineffective recently. Opponents are batting .316 against Marlins' pitching the L7 games with three different games of 10 runs. Quite simply, yesterday's performance by the Marlins was an aberration, not a sign of things to come. 

The Reds, admittedly, have had a terrible start to the second half. They've won just twice in 13 tries. This week has seen them go 0-3 against a pair of American League teams as they dropped a make-up game in Cleveland on Monday, then a pair of games in New York. They've also had to deal w/ both Washington and Arizona since the All-Star Break, so it's not like the schedule has been easy. Miami represents a clear drop in class compared to other recent opponents and it should be noted the previous series saw each team finish w/ exactly 11 runs. The Marlins come into this series w/o some key performers, such as Justin Bour and J.T. Riddle, both of whom are on the DL, plus reliever David Phelps was just sent to Seattle. Stephenson is making just his second start of the year here for the Reds and I'm willing to bank that it goes better than the first one. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

8* Toronto (12:37): Similar to St. Louis-Colorado yday, I smell as sweep here as Toronto has handled Oakland in this battle of last place teams. While it's by no means been a dominant performance by the Blue Jays, the A's have to be crushed after last night where they gave up B2B home runs in the bottom of the ninth to lose the game, 3-2. The A's also have the worst road record in the American League (16-34) and have dropped 11 of their last 12 here in Toronto going back several seasons. They've lost seven of their last nine overall as well coming into today's finale. While the Jays still actually have a slightly worse YTD run differential compared to the A's, in terms of "true talent," I don't think I'm alone in thinking they are the better team here. Marcus Stroman facing an anemic offense is the final nail in what should be a lopsided affair.

Though he has little to show for it in the win column, Stroman has pitched very well of late. Sure, there have been some control issues, but he has a 1.37 ERA in four starts this month and has allowed just 1 ER in his last 14 1/3 IP. Last time out is when he allowed that earned run, in what turned out to be a hard-luck loss (2-1) at Cleveland. Going back five starts, Stroman has allowed a total of just 4 ER and no homers. The lineup he'll face today has done next to nothing in this series. The Oakland bats have produced just five runs on 11 hits in the three games and twice been held to three hits or fewer. So this is really an ideal matchup for Toronto's top pitcher. For the year, the A's are averaging just 3.8 rpg on the road w/ a team batting average of .233. Not good.

Oakland isn't just losing consistently on the road, they're getting dominated. That's evident by the fact they've been outscored - on average - by 1.4 rpg, one of the worst marks in all of baseball. That certainly makes today's task tough for starter Sean Manaea, who has been slumping to begin with. Manaea gave up four runs and 10 hits - in only 5 2/3 innings - his last time out, a 6-5 loss to the Mets. He does have a win over the Blue Jays earlier this year, but that was at home. Behind Manaea is a bullpen that obviously has zero confidence after last night and already had a 5.49 ERA and 1.470 WHIP on the road anyway. 8* Toronto

10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): I smell a sweep here in St. Louis as the Cardinals are fighting their way back into contention. Really, there's no reason to believe that the Redbirds can't win a wide open NL Central as the L2 days have shown. They've beaten Colorado (a current Wild Card team) two straight times, holding them to only four runs in the process. Remember that St. Louis, despite a losing overall record (49-51) has a better YTD run differential than the Cubs (+27 to +26)! Colorado, as has been the case throughout the franchise's history, just can't score enough consistently on the road and now they have to face the Cards' best pitcher (Carlos Martinez) in tonight's finale. Time to break out the brooms at Busch Stadium.

After a dominant 8-2 win on Monday, it was a walkoff win last night for the home team, though they never actually trailed in the game. They had jumped out to a 2-0 lead after the first inning, but Colorado was able to tie the game w/ runs scored in both the seventh and eighth innings. No team in baseball has lost more games in which they have held a lead of two or more runs this season than St. Louis, but they were able to avoid adding another to the list as Harrison Bader (called up earlier in the day) scored the GW run. The Rockies have yet to hold a lead in this series and their offensive production dropping almost a full two runs per game on the road is starting to become an issue. They had half the number of hits St. Louis did last night. 

Martinez is deserving of far better than a 9-11 TSR for the Redbirds. Completely disregard the fact that a start earlier this season vs. the Rockies resulted in a 10-0 loss as he allowed only three runs in 7 IP. He was the beneficiary of a late-inning explosion his last time out, however, as a nine-run eighth inning by the Cards propelled them to an 11-4 road win over the Cubs, which I was on as Martinez was +125 on the ML. He has a 2.90 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 10 home starts this year. I look for him to silence the slumping Rockies bats. Meanwhile, Colorado starter Jeff Hoffman has NOT pitched well of late, turning in an 8.44 ERA and 1.875 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he gave up seven runs in just three innings. Hoffman was one of several early season surprises in this Rockies' rotation, but he has since given up 29 runs in his L33 IP. The Cards are a team to watch here in the second half. 10* St. Louis

8* Texas (8:10 ET): A number of big-name pitchers are rumored to be changing teams at the trade deadline and Yu Darvish's name can be counted among them. But while this may be a lost season for the Rangers, they may want to think twice about dealing away a starter of this caliber. Yes, he's gone 0-4 w/ a 4.26 ERA his past seven starts, but he did overcome allowing three HR's his last time out (all solo shots) as he struck out a season-high 12 batters. (Texas would go on to win the game, 4-3, at Tampa Bay). Darvish has 10+ K's 32 times in his career plus his control has generally been excellent of late w/ one walk or fewer issued in eight of the last 10 outings. Though below .500, the Rangers have outscored opponents this year (stark contrast to last season!) and they should roll today over Miami.

It was the offense that carried Texas yday in a 10-4 win. Among their 15 hits were four home runs and their 31 total bases marked a season-high. As I've discussed previously, predictable regression in one-run games has hurt the Rangers this year as they've gone from 36-11 in '16 (all-time best mark in MLB history!) to 10-15 in '17. But poor hitting w/ RISP has also hurt them. That wasn't the case Tuesday however, nor should it be today against Jose Urena, who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, Urena looked good, but that was against Cincinnati. That should also then tell you just how bad he was the previous two starts as he gave up eight runs in eight innings, including four home runs. Urena has only had to make one start in an AL park this season (meaning he has to face a DH and not the pitcher) and it went horribly as he allowed six runs in 4 IP to lowly Oakland. It was his least effective start to date.

Texas has generally had its way w/ the National League this season, going 10-3. They're 34-19 in IL play the L3 seasons, not too surprising considering how the American League - in general - tends to dominate. The last season that the NL produced a winning record in IL play was 2003. Miami is 21-37 its L58 games vs. AL opponents. It doesn't help that their lineup will be missing Justin Bour today. If this is the final start for Darvish in a Rangers uniform, expect him to go out a winner. 8* Texas

6* Arizona (3:40 ET): I was a bit shocked to see the Braves beat the D'backs yday, although maybe I shouldn't have been given the presence Mike Foltynewicz, who threw another six strong innings as Atlanta won for a NINTH consecutive time w/ him pitching. But Foltynewicz can't pitch every day and w/ Arizona owning one of the top home records in all of baseball (currently 35-18), I see them bouncing back this afternoon. Yday's starter, Taijuan Walker, held the Braves w/o a hit for the first three innings and the only run he allowed in the first five innings was unearned. Atlanta poured it on late, breaking open a game that was tied 2-2 entering the 7th. The D'backs still have one of the top run differentials in all of baseball however (+109), and they have the - clear - edge in starting pitching today. Only Houston and the Dodgers have outscored the opposition by a wider margin over the course of 2017 than have the D'backs, who average 5.7 rpg here at Chase Field. 

It makes little sense as to how Atlanta could be 4-1 head to head w/ Arizona this season. Remember though, they did not have to face either Zack Greinke or Robbie Ray in the previous series. They avoid Ray again here (lost to Greinke Monday), but I feel Pat Corbin is very likely to hold the Braves in check here. He pitched fairly well in the last series vs. Atlanta (on the road), allowing only two runs in 5 IP. He followed that up by allowing just 1 ER in 7 1/3 IP last time out, at Cincinnati. His numbers are much better at home and he's actually allowed 3 ER or fewer in EIGHT consecutive starts. His ERA over the previous seven is 2.81. As a home favorite of -175 to -250 on the ML, the D'backs are 7-1 this season and 13-4 the L3 seasons.

Atlanta will be sending out Aaron Blair, who is making his 2017 debut here. He was actually originially drafted by Arizona, but never made the big league club. He did pitch at this level LY for the Braves, but was hardly effective in going 2-7 w/ a 7.59 ERA. This is one of the toughest venues in the league to pitch as the D'backs are just so prolific here at Chase Field. The Braves have been a surprisingly effective road team this season, but winning two straight against a vastly superior foe (w/ a questionable starter) seems unlikely. 6* Arizona

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): In the teams' first series after the All-Star Break, the Braves swept a three-game series from the D'backs, doing so in somewhat of a convincing fashion (outscored them 19-9). However, as discussed in my analysis of yday's game, the Braves really benefited there from not having to face either of Arizona's top two pitchers - Zack Greinke or Robbie Ray. They faced Greinke last night and even north of -200 on the ML, I felt he was a tremendous value. Sure enough, he tossed eight strong innings and the D'backs rolled to victory 10-2. Tonight's starter for Arizona, Taijuan Walker, may not be Greinke, but he's being just as undervalued IMO as the other key to handicapping this series is the D'backs' prowess at home. Last night's win elevates them to 35-17 this season at home where they're outscoring the opposition by 1.7 rpg. At 5.7 rpg, they are the third highest scoring home team in all of MLB. Atlanta is simply outgunned here.

Walker did pitch in the last series w/ the Braves. While he obviously didn't win, he pitched well, giving up only two runs and five hits in 6 IP. While he pitched well, I thought it was a mistake leaving him in the game for that final frame. Not only did he kill a possible big inning for the offense by grounding into an inning-ending double play, but in the bottom half of the sixth, he allowed a home run. Nevertheless, I will credit Walker for giving up 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts. The D'backs actually wound up in position to still win the game (led 3-2 going into the bottom of the eighth), but the bullpen blew it. Walker's numbers at home aren't great, but he's likely to get far more support here than he did on 7.14. He also hasn't pitched since, so he's well-rested coming off 10 days in between starts.

An obvious reason as to why the ML is not substantially higher here is that Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz has seen the team win each of his last EIGHT starts. The last four have come as underdogs of +187, +120, +155 and +160. That's quite a return on investment and doesn't even include a win as a +210 ML dog vs. Stephen Strasburg and Washington last month. But the buck stops here. Though he's allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of those eight starts, Foltynewicz has a 4.08 ERA and 1.586 WHIP his L3 starts, which are not good numbers (particularly the latter). He's been fortunate not to allow more runs as he's given up 22 hits and six walks in 17 2/3 IP. One of those L3 starts came against this D'backs lineup and he allowed three runs in 5 1/3 IP. Look for him to give up a lot more this time as Arizona scored 10 times last night and - as detailed above - is a far more prolific lineup here at Chase Field. 8* Arizona

10* Detroit (7:10 ET): The Tigers, specifically Justin Verlander, failed to exact revenge for a prior loss on Monday, but the 5-3 loss (in 12 innings) failed to dissuade me that they are the better overall team here. The same angle presents itself tonight and in the case of Michael Fulmer, I believe the second time will be the charm. Fulmer lost his last time out, in embarrassing fashion, 16-4 to these Royals. He'll once again be facing off against Danny Duffy, who - despite that win last Thursday - still has numbers that are mediocre, at best. Even though they've won six in a row, the Royals have been outscored this season and have a run differential (-19) that's almost identical to the Tigers (-21), who are eight games below .500. Good value on the home side tonight. 

I feel that the change in venue from last Thurs should do wonders for Fulmer's performance here. He said it himself in regards to his last start, in KC's Kauffman Stadium, "...last time out it was 37 pitches in the first inning and 100-degree heat. You get tired real quick, so my second and third innings I wasn't crisp. I think it just boils down to the fact I threw way too many pitches in that first inning." Certainly, Fulmer has pitched better at Comerica Park than on the road this season. His TSR at home is 7-3, due in large part to a 1.049 WHIP. Last time he worked here, he went eight innings and gave up only one run and two hits. That was a career-worst start his last time out and I expect a bounce back from a pitcher who is currently #2 in the American League in quality starts.

As for Duffy, he's been better since returning from the DL, especially in the control department (no walks L3 starts). However, lost in last week's lopsided win over the Tigers is the fact Duffy gave up a four-run fifth, meaningless for that game, but not in the grand scheme of things. Note that in his last road start, Duffy allowed five runs - and that came at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. He still has an ERA above 4.00 lifetime against the Tigers. I just think it speaks volumes that Detroit is favored on the money line in this series, a price I happen to agree with. Sure it helps that they're at home (where they average 5.3 rpg for the year), but also the Royals just also aren't as strong as recent results would seem to indicate. Keep in mind that half of their current win streak includes a sweep of the lowly White Sox. 10* Detroit

10* Pittsburgh (10:15 ET): This is a revenge series for the Bucs, who got swept (at home!) by the Giants back in early July. Actually, the road team has experienced a great deal of success in head to head matchups between these two clubs as the Pirates are a perfect 6-0 here in San Fran the previous two seasons. This will be their first visit of '17 and what they'll encounter is a Giants team that has fallen both fast and hard from previous years. No team has lost more at the betting window than has SF (-27.9 units) as they continue to be mispriced based on reputation and the expectation they'll "turn things around." But they couldn't even win a series against the lowly Padres here at home over the weekend, dropping three of four to them. I look for the Bucs to get some revenge tonight, led by Gerrit Cole.

Pittsburgh also had a somewhat disappointing weekend as they lost both Saturday and Sunday in Colorado. But they'd won six straight prior to that as they desperately try and remain relevant in the NL Central race. Despite being a game below .500, they're only three games off the pace in the division. Compare that to the Giants, who know they're done for the season as they trail the Dodgers by 30.5 games (!) in the West and are 19 games back of the Wild Card. Since sweeping the Pirates, they've lost 11 of 16. They have just ONE win by more than one run in July. Meanwhile, the Bucs have gone in the opposite direction, winning 12 of their last 17 games since the Giants series. Tonight marks just the fourth time all year that they've been priced as a road favorite of -125 or higher on the ML, which says a lot about their opponent. 

It is my view that tonight's starting pitching matchup is a massive mismatch in favor of the visitors. Cole comes in having gone 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 2.37 ERA and 0.947 WHIP. He's allowed just five runs in 19 IP and has a 22-1 KW ratio. Six of his last seven starts have seen him allow 2 ER or fewer, the exception coming against the Giants. But, he's typically pitched well against this opponent, turning in a 3.21 ERA in five starts total. San Francisco has a weak lineup that is 28th in runs scored, 25th in team batting average, 29th in OBP, 30th in slugging and 30th in home runs. In order to be successful, Giants starter Matt Cain will need an amount of run support he's unlikely to get here. In 18 starts this year, Cain has a 5.42 ERA and 1.640 WHIP. The Pirates did not get to face him in the last series. Cain's strikeout numbers remain very low, which is never a good sign. A Giants team which has its most losses through 100 games (62) since moving to San Francisco (in 1958!) will see its nightmare season continue tonight. 10* Pittsburgh

8* NY Mets (10:10 ET): There are many huge mismatches on the Monday card, which is why my card is so unusually large (this is a good thing!) on a day like today. One such mismatch takes place here in San Diego where the host Padres actually come in having won three of four (against the last place Giants). But any kind of sustained success should not be expected from this ballclub, which still owns the worst overall run differential in MLB at -132. The Giants are -114, but no other NL team is below -80, which right there should tell you how bad this team can truly be. It's really tough imagining them mounting much of a challenge against the Mets, who will send the red hot Jacob deGrom out to the bump.

On paper, this sets up as perhaps deGrom's easiest start of 2017. San Diego ranks dead last in baseball in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. It's not as if deGrom needs a lot of help right now either. He's 7-0 his L7 starts w/ a 1.51 ERA and 0.820 WHIP and he's allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of those seven starts! In his last 28 1/3 innings of work, deGrom has allowed only 22 hits and has a 31-3 KW ratio. In four career starts against the Padres, he has a 1.80 ERA.

On the other hand, San Diego starter Clayton Richard comes into this Monday matchup hardly in fine form. His last start saw him allow 11 runs and 14 hits in just 3 2/3 IP! While that came at Coors Field, it should be noted that Richard had allowed 11 hits in 5 2/3 IP his previous start and that took place here at home. To put those numbers in their proper perspective, Richard has allowed more hiits in his last 9 1/3 IP (25) than deGrom has in his last 28 1/3 (22)! WOW! Richard has allowed 4 ER or more in four of his last five starts and if there's one positive aspect (besides deGrom) this Mets team brings to the table this year, it's that they average 5.3 runs per game on the road. That's the third most in all of baseball! 8* NY Mets

8* Arizona (9:40 ET): I, for one, was shocked that the price on Zack Greinke and Arizona isn't far higher here. After all, they're at home where they own a 34-17 record and are outscoring visitors by 1.7 runs per game. Only two teams, one of them Colorado, are averaging more runs per game at home than are the D'backs. Perhaps this low price (by Greinke standards) has something to do w/ the fact Atlanta was able to split four games w/ the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine over the weekend (impressive when you think about it). Or maybe it has something to do w/ the Braves sweeping the D'backs in the first series after the All-Star Break. But that series took place down in Atlanta and not only did Grienke not pitch, neither did Robbie Ray. I suspect Arizona will be exacting some revenge to start the week. 

Though they've fallen behind the Dodgers by 11.5 games in the NL West, Arizona still holds one of MLB's best run differentials at +106. Only three teams are better and those are Houston, the Dodgers and Washington. They did just drop two of three to the Nats here at home over the weekend, but did beat Max Scherzer on Friday. This is an impressive home team, especially when Greinke is on the hill as they've gone 10-1 in his 11 Chase Field starts this season. Overall, Greinke is having another fantastic year w/ a 2.97 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. Coming off a long rest (12 days!), he wasn't as sharp as per usual vs. Cincinnati last Wednesday, but that was also on the road. At home, he has a 0.873 WHIP and has allowed just three runs and 10 hits his L19 IP here. Again, I actually consider this price range to be a bit of a bargain considering Arizona is 6-1 this year as a ML home fave of -175 to -250 and 12-4 in that range the L3 seasons. 

The Braves counter Greinke w/ veteran knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who has actually gone at least six innings in six consecutive starts. But after allowing 1 ER or fewer in each of the first five, Dickey was tagged for four in an 8-2 loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. His 5.55 ERA and 1.511 WHIP on the road (eight starts) are cause for concern, especially in this hitter-friendly ballpark. While Atlanta did split w/ the Dodgers over the weekend, they did lose the L2 games. After a tough series such as that one (extra inning loss yday), it's tough to envision them winning against Greinke tonight. 8* Arizona

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Might this past weekend have been a significant turning point in the defending AL Champs' season? Clearly the best team in their division, the Indians have struggled to pull away from the pack due in no small part to a shockingly subpar record at home. But after sweeping the Blue Jays (in impressive fashion) Friday-Sunday, their record is at least now .500 here at Progressive Field. As I just stated, the Tribe are clearly the best that the AL Central has to offer, an assertion backed up by the run differential column where they are +81 for the year and no other division rival is "in the black" (positive). Another area where the Indians have performed much more poorly than expected is in Interleague games where they're just 4-13 for the year. They'll have a shot at rectifying that a bit tonight w/ a make-up game, hosting lowly Cincinnati. 

Though I played the Reds on Sunday (successfully, I might add), they clearly are overmatched in this instance. Yesterday's 6-3 win over Miami certainly cannot erase what was a terrible homestand overall, one that saw the team go 2-8 while getting outscored 72-31. Their pitching staff allowed 23 home runs in the 10 games, a number which is almost mind-numbing. I took them yday, in part, because I thought they had the edge in starting pitching (Miami went w/ the horrid Tom Koehler). That's not the case here as the Reds will hand the baseball to Tim Adelman, who over his L3 starts has produced a 6.46 ERA and 1.566 WHIP. Adelman has allowed at least one HR in TEN consecutive outings. By the way, if the Reds thought the homestand was bad, things may only get worse as they're just 16-28 on the road this year and getting outscored by 1.2 rpg. 

Cleveland goes w/ Josh Tomlin in this spot. He beat a National League opponent in his most recent outing, San Francisco, by allowing just three runs and six hits. This will actually be his third straight start facing an opponent from the Senior Circuit. Back on 7.6, in this ballpark, he also turned in a quality start at San Diego's expense. Facing the Padres, Giants and Reds (NL's 3 worst?) is a pretty favorable stretch for a starting pitcher and note Cincy comes into this series averaging fewer than 3.0 rpg their L7 contests. Tomlin has great control as well, leading the AL w/ only 1.0 BB per nine innings. The Cleveland offense really woke up over the weekend, outscoring Toronto 23-5 in three games. I expect that to carry over to tonight. 8* Cleveland

8* Detroit (7:10): The Royals got to thoroughly enjoy a weekend visit from the White Sox, whom they swept rather convincingly. I was on them in one of the wins (Saturday), but now they have to hit the road for the first time since the All-Star Break. Their current five-game win streak began with a pair of wins over Detroit at home and now the Tigers - specifically Justin Verlander - get a shot at revenge in their park Monday. The Tigers just completed a winning road trip (went 4-3) w/ a win Sunday (9-6 at Minnesota) and Verlander will get to face the same pitcher he lost to (Jason Hammel) in a hard-luck decision last Wednesday. I feel that the scenario, with the change in venue and "immediate revenge" factor w/ the starting pitchers, is tailor-made for the Tigers to exact some payback on KC here.

That four-game series at Kauffman Stadium last week actually saw the Tigers take the first two games, both in commanding fashion. They won 10-2 and 9-3 before Verlander & Hammel took the mound for the rubber match and the latter came out on top 4-3. Verlander certainly pitched well enough to win, allowing just two runs in 7 IP w/ an 8-1 KW ratio. Save for one bad start against Cleveland on 7.2, Verlander has pitched well over the last two months. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his past 10 starts. Also, his ERA is nearly two full points lower at home than it is on the road. His career win total against the Royals (23) is his most against any opponent and he has a 3.18 ERA in 44 starts against them. So it's rare to see him lose to KC, let alone twice in the same week!

Conversely, it's pretty rare to see Hammel pitch so well against Detroit as he owns a 6.98 ERA in 11 career outings against them. This is a pitcher who began the year 1-6 w/ a 6.18 ERA. He's turned it around somewhat over the L2 months, but a 5.08 ERA and 1.752 WHIP on the road are still cause for concern. Despite being three games over .500, the Royals have still been outscored over the course of this season (-21 run differential). They are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Meanwhile, despite being seven games below .500, the Tigers actually have a better YTD run diff than the Royals (-19)! Verlander and company get revenge tonight. 8* Detroit

8* Run Line St. Louis (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Cardinals +1.5. After taking Friday's opener (a day game), the Cards lost yday here in the Windy City, 3-2. Though held to only three hits - total - for the entire game, the visitors still were in position to win before blowing a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the eighth. The loss marked the 20th time this year that the Cards lost a game in which they held a two-run lead, most in all of MLB. All five runs in yday's game were actually scored in the 8th. Despite the disappointing result Saturday and the lack of hitting, the Cards would have still been a RL winner. That's how I'll play them tonight as they do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

In my analysis for Friday's matchup, I talked about how there really is little difference between these teams' overall performances in 2017. Sure, the Cubs have a 3.5 game edge in the NL Central standings, but despite being under .500, not only have the Cards outscored their opponents this year, they also have a slightly better YTD run differential (+22 vs. +21) compared to their rivals. I have more faith in their pitching than the Cubs and that goes for tonight where Michael Wacha will toe the rubber. Wacha comes in rocking fine form as he 3-0 w/ a 0.87 ERA and 0.822 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he tossed a complete game shutout, allowing just three hits w/ an 8-1 KW ratio against the Mets. In his last 26 2/3 IP, Wacha has allowed just THREE runs total. Overall, the team has won the last five times he's taken the mound. I feel comfortable putting my money on Wacha here. He hasn't lost a decision since May 30th.

Cubs starter Jose Quintana will be making his Wrigley debut tonight, so the spotlight will be on him. Like Wacha, Quintana has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, which goes back to his tenure w/ the cross-town White Sox. Obviously, he's pitched at Wrigley before, but not as a member of the home team. As devastating as he looked in his Cubs debut last Sunday at Baltimore (seven scoreless innnings, struck out 12), he's facing a better - and less familiar - opponent here. The Cubs have been big money losers this season (-15.5 units) and have actually been outscored here at Wrigley Field.  8* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5)

10* Under A's/Mets (1:10 ET): Playing these teams Under burned me yday, but the philosophy behind the play has not changed and thus I'm back for more. Furthermore, today we're getting a better number as 9 is a key number in betting MLB totals and so that additional half run could prove vital. Also, with the Mets favored, there's a decent chance we won't have to play the bottom of the ninth today, which is always helpful when playing an Under as you don't need to sit through those final three outs. Last night's game saw Oakland jump out to a 4-0 lead after the top of the first, which really put us behind the proverbial 8-ball. I see no such outburts occurring today (A's scored only one run the rest of the way) and thus Under is the play.

The Mets are the top Over team in baseball. But they're run production actually slips dramatically at Citi Field compared to the road. At home, they average 4.4 rpg, nearly a full run fewer than what they average on the road. At the risk of being redundant, they're hosting an AL team here, which is notable because the A's lose the DH and have to send their pitchers (unaccustomed to batting) up to the plate. Even w/ the benefit of the DH, Oakland is just 22nd in runs scored in all of MLB, not to mention 28th in team batting average and 24th in OBP. Mets' starter Rafael Montero should be able to handle their lineup today as even in defeat, he looked good his last time out, allowing just 2 ER in a 5-0 loss to the Cardinals. The Mets' bullpen threw four scoreless innings last night, a good sign as well.

The A's bullpen hasn't been nearly as stout in this series, but that was to be expected after the trade w/ Washington. Still, I'm not too worried about it. Starter Daniel Gossett is off perhaps his best start of the year as he went seven innings and allowed just three runs. Coming into this series, A's pitching had allowed four runs or less in eight consecutive games. So, it's not that side of the ledger I'd be concerned with. Rather, the offense scoring only 3.9 rpg on the road is a bigger concern, yet one that works to our advantage here. The Mets have struggled offensively in day games as well, averaging just 3.8 rpg for the year. 10* Under A's/Mets

10* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): This finale, of a series that has drawn little interest, offers some tremendous value on the home team who is hoping to avoid getting swept. Overall, it's been eight losses in the last nine games for the Reds, who have fallen deep into the basement in the NL Central. Of course, this was to be expected. Coming into 2017, they were projected as perhaps the worst team in baseball w/ the possible exception of San Diego. Now that we've established "what this team is," allow me to explain why there's value on them today. It has more to do w/ fading Miami really. The Marlins have only ONE 3-game win streak over the last month and that came right before the Break when they swept the Giants. I do not envision the same thing taking place here, not w/ the horrible Tom Koehler on the mound. 

Koehler comes in w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 11 starts this year. Not good. The team did win his last time out, 6-5 over the Phillies, but did so in extra innings after Koehler put them in an early four-run hole. Before that, the Marlins had lost each of his previous five starts. He was actually sent down to the minors at point and when he returned, produced a 10.80 ERA in his first four starts. Miami had not been playing well itself since returning from the Break, dropping five of six and those were all home games. Another big issue w/ Koehler is that he rarely goes deep into games. He's never made it past six innings and only twice in those 11 starts has he gotten that far. He's also never pitched in this ballpark before. 

Yes, Cincinnati is experiencing a truly awful homestand as they are not only 1-8, but have been outscored 69-25. They've allowed 22 HR's, which is a big problem, but keep in mind that they also faced both Washington and Arizona, two of the National League's top offensive teams. Sal Romano (not to be confused w/ the Mad Men character of the same name!) is charged w/ ending this homestand on some sort of positive note and despite his numbers being somewhat similar to Koehler's, I feel he has the more potential of the two starters here. This is only his fourth career big-league start and in addition to having to face Arizona his last time out, he also had to pitch at Coors Field. This will - easily - be his most favorable matchup to date as Miami is 21st in runs scored. The thing to keep in mind about this homestand is that the Reds previously had a winning record here! 10* Cincinnati

10* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Orioles +1.5. I was aggressive in playing the O's on the money line last night (were +130) and very quickly that looked like a bad bet as they quickly fell down 5-0 after just two innings. Truthfully, they were never really "in it," but a five-run ninth at least satisfied run line bettors as the final score was 8-7. Given that result, I'll be a little more conservative today and grab the added insurance at what appears to be a great price. Admittedly, the starting pitching situation - from the Baltimore perspective - isn't a ton more desirable today compared to yesterday. But I feel Houston's starter won't be nearly as strong and thus I'm confident in saying the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. Remember that the O's are still 29-20 at Camden Yards this year.

Tonight will mark the season debut for Astros starter Colin McHugh. Elbow issues are what has kept him out. After a breakthrough 2015, McHugh regressed some LY, finishing just 13-10 w/ a 4.34 ERA. He's never pitched particularly well against Baltimore w/ a 6.08 ERA in five career starts. I sense he may struggle some in his first start of the year. The Orioles have a fairly potent lineup, one which has averaged 6.3 runs per game over the last week and 4.8 rpg for the year at home. They've now scored seven or more runs in four consecutive contests. Let us not forget about the absences the Astros are dealing w/ right now. Carlos Correa is out as is relief man Will Harris. We saw the impact Harris' absence had on the team last night. Correa is obviously irreplaceable. 

Before losing last night, the Orioles had won four in a row as they'd swept the Rangers, here at home. Chris Tillman, like his counterpart McHugh, missed substantial time this year. He was out for the first month, but won his first start back (White Sox), tossing five scoreless innings on 5.3. He has not won since, a span of 11 starts, though the TSR is 4-7. Admittedly, he has not pitched well and that's reflected in the numbers. But he did look good his last time out, allowing just one run and two hits in 6 IP vs. Texas. This year's results are in stark contrast to 2016 where Tillman finished as one of the big money-earners in all of MLB (3rd in net units!). Again, I believe the O's can win here and they'll do no worse than a one run loss. 10* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)

8* Kansas City (7:15 ET): Losers of seven straight, the White Sox are in a terrible way right now and figure to continue sinking further and further in the basement of the AL Central. The team's somewhat surprising start earlier this year was unsustainable as they were getting far better pitching than expected in the wake of sending Chris Sale to Boston. (They've since dealt Jose Quintana to the Cubs). Now they're giving up an average of over 5.0 rpg and that number should continue to rise w/ embattled starter Mike Pelfrey on the bump this evening. Last night's loss was of the crushing variety as the Sox blew a 5-1 lead and lost in extra innings. The Royals, who were in anearly season hole, have dug themselves out somewhat and won three in a row. They should continue progressing towards a possible sweep tonight.

It looks like a pretty substantial pitching mismatch here w/ Jason Vargas opposing Pelfrey. Vargas has struggled in his two July starts thus far, but that being said, it's been a strong overall year for the southpaw. He comes in w/ a 12-4 record in 18 starts (13-5 TSR), 3.05 ERA and 1.220 WHIP. Predictably, he's been stronger here at Kauffman Stadium. Let's not forget that he was an All-Star and came into July w/ a 2.22 ERA. He's off his shortest outing of the year, which is never fun, but often times leads to a bounce back the next time out. (We saw this w/ Trevor Bauer of Cleveland last night). Earlier this year, Vargas threw six solid innings against the White Sox here at home, giving up just one run on five hits. 

Meanwhile, at no juncture of the season could one reasonably conclude Pelfrey was having an effective year. His main issue is that he rarely goes deep into games. He has yet to make it past the six inning mark in any start this year and only twice has he gone longer than 5 1/3 IP. That puts a huge burden on a White Sox bullpen that simply isn't very good to begin with and let's not forget they also had a heavy workload last night. During this seven-game losing streak of theirs, Chicago is being outscored by 3.4 rpg. They've been shut out twice and held to three runs or fewer five times. 8* Kansas City

10* Under A's/Mets (7:10 ET): This Interleague matchup is taking place in a NL park, therefore my natural lean is towards the Under (AL team loses DH). Now, last night's series opener between the A's and Mets did go Over the total - as there was a late surge of runs scored including a 3-run inside the park home run that was fairly preposterous (error assisted). That's something that shouldn't happen again. Nor are the A's likely to pound out 14 hits for a second consecutive day. This is a lineup that's already 29th in baseball in team batting average (.236) and that's w/ DH, not the pitcher, coming up to bat. Yes, the Mets are the top Over team in baseball, but their scoring actually decreases dramatically here at Citi Field, down to 4.4 runs per game (5.3 rpg away).

Pitching here for Oakland will be Sean Manaea, who arguably has been their most consistent starter this year. He's 3 for 3 in quality starts here in July, turning in a 2.95 ERA and 1.172 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed just two runs and five hits in seven innings. He's now allowed 3 ER or less in five consecutive starts as well as 10 of his last 11! His ERA during that stretch is 2.92 and he's gone at least seven innings at least six times. Manaea has gotten to face only one NL lineup this year - Atlanta - and that was at home. Still, him allowing just two runs in 7 1/3 IP there is a good sign. He's allowed just 1 HR in his last five starts overall.

The Mets' Zach Wheeler seems to be headed in the opposite direction as Manaea, but this figures to be one of his easier starts this year. The Over cashed in 10 of his first 14 starts, but the last two (including a quality outing at St. Louis) have been different stories. Last time out, he did give up four runs to the Cardinals here at home as the Mets lost 6-3 (total pushed on 9.0). But note that he didn't allow a single run for five innings and he and the Mets wound up being doomed by one big inning. Despite their rightful rep as an Over team, the Mets lineup is only 12th in runs scored, 20th in OBP and 21st in team batting average. I look for this matchup to be lower-scoring than anticipated. 10* Under A's/Mets

8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): I have to admit; San Diego stunned me last night when they beat Madison Bumgarner (now 0-6 TSR in '17!) for the second time in less than a week. But for the second consecutive day, we also have a pitching matchup where one starter has "immediate" revenge for a loss in the prior start. Last Sunday, the Padres (w/ Trevor Cahill starting) beat Jeff Samardzija and the Giants, 7-1, in what was their last win prior to yday. Cahill and Samardzija face off again Friday and I believe it will be the latter emerging victorious this time. Not only because of the revenge angle (hard to beat same opposing starter twice in a row!), but also due to the fact that the Padres are just not good. Their MLB worst run differential (-137) includes them being outcored - on average - by 1.9 rpg on the road.

Samardzija is deserving of far better than a 4-11 record in his 19 starts this season (7-12 TSR). Sure, he did not pitch well Sunday at Petco Park. But, at least in the control department, he's had an outstanding year. Since May 1st, he's issued only FOUR walks against 100 strikeouts. That's an otherworldy ratio that should be leading to far better results. But it's just been "that kind of year" for the former Notre Dame wideout and the team as a whole. But, Sunday aside, Samardzija has pitched well in the past vs. SD, turning in a 3.68 ERA against them w/ a 7-3 record. Also, he ranks sixth in the National League in both innings pitched and strikeouts while ranking ninth in WHIP. He's gone at least six innings in 16 of his 19 starts. It's important to note that he's not lost three decisions in a row since opening the year 0-4. 

San Diego, in my opinion, is the worst team in baseball. They may have a better record than the Giants, but they have an inferior run differential and that is usually a far better predictor of future results. Offensively, this has been another inept season for them as they rank dead last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. Hats off to Trevor Cahill for the way he pitched against the Giants on Sunday, but his home vs. road splits have been quite dramatic to say the least. While he's 4-0 at Petco Park this year w/ a 0.72 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, when taking his act on the road, the numbers are grim (5.01 ERA and 1.515 WHIP) and he's yet to win in six tries (0-3). This is a far better price than yday against what remains a terrible road team. 8* San Francisco

10* Baltimore (7:05 ET): The Orioles surprised me yday by beating Cole Hamels, thereby finishing off a four-game sweep of the Rangers. Despite a run differential (-71) that does not match the record (46-49), the O's clearly are a better team here at Camden Yards where they're now 29-19 for the year. That's actually a better win percentage than the team they'll host this weekend, that being Houston, who has the best overall record in the American League. Yes, the Astros have been unreal on the road and are coming off an off day. But they also are now w/o Carlos Correa for six weeks, a very significant loss considering they are already w/o their best starter (Dallas Keuchel) and best reliever (Will Harris). They've got a big enough lead in the AL West where the injuries won't cost them, but maintaining the current .663 win percentage should prove difficult. 

These teams have met only one time all year and that was in Houston. Given how badly Baltimore struggles on the road, you probably shouldn't be shocked to learn that they were swept in that three-game series. But, at the time, the Astros were in the midst of playing their best baseball of the season as they'd go on to win 11 straight. Since that 11-game win streak ended, they're actually "only" 21-16. They just dropped two of three to Seattle, at home, and have not won on consecutive days since the All-Star Break. I highly doubt that starter Michael Fiers will be able to match his previous outing, where he struck out 11 in seven innings against Minnesota as he has a 4.79 ERA and 1.447 WHIP on the road (last start was at home). He did not pitch in the previous series w/ Baltimore, who instead had to face both Keuchel and Lance McCullers, Jr. 

Ubaldo Jimenez, admittedly, has not pitched well of late for Baltimore. The former Cy Young winner got rocked by the Cubs last week, giving up six runs and 11 hits in 3 2/3 IP. It was his third straight bad outing, but the offense also didn't support him at all (shutout). Jimenez has pitched well in the past vs. Houston, turning in a 2.87 ERA in 13 career appearances. I believe that this is a great price on an Orioles' team that has won four straight and is much better at home. The Correa injury should take its toll on the vaunted Astros. 10* Baltimore

9* St. Louis (2:20 ET): Despite the perception, the difference between the Cubs and Cards is quite minimal, if not completely non-existent. Granted, this weekend series takes place in Wrigley and the home team has won six in a row overall. Plus, they swept St. Louis in their previous visit to the "Friendly Confines" last month. But all of those factors have created a TON of value on the road dog here. The two offenses have virtually been identical this year w/ the Redbirds actually placing 12 spots higher in team batting average compared to their division rival. Then there's the pitching side of the ledger, where - to me - the Cards have a pretty commanding edge. That includes Friday afternoon where Carlos Martinez faces Jake Arrieta. The former has better numbers despite an inferior won-loss record. I'll gladly back St. Louis at "plus money" here.

The narrative entering this series will be "the Cubs are back" following a 6-0 road trip that saw them sweep Baltimore and Atlanta. But was that performance really all that impressive? Sure, the Orioles turned around and swept Texas in their next series, but their -71 run differential remains one of the worst in the American League. Atlanta could be the weakest second place team in recent memory. The Cubs have essentially lost money in all settings here in 2017 as they're clearly overvalued after last year's World Series Championship. Only four teams (Toronto, Philly, Cleveland, SF) have been less profitable and day games have been particularly costly to Cubs backers as they're down 12.1 units! 

These teams are separated by 3.5 games yet the respective YTD run differentials are quite similar. Prior to losing the previous two days, St. Louis had taken the first two games against the Mets. Let's also not be fooled by the recent showings of the two starting pitchers today. Jake Arrieta might have a 1.86 ERA and 0.931 WHIP his L3 starts, but for the year he has a 4.17 ERA and 1.287 WHIP. Only 9 of his 19 starts have been quality. Yes, he's had the Cards' number here at Wrigley, but his overall skill set seems to have regressed. Meanwhile, Carlos Martinez may have hit a bit of a rough patch for the Redbirds (0-5 TSR L5 starts), but for the year he still sports a 3.36 ERA and 1.143 WHIP, better numbers than Arrieta. He also has a 2-0 TSR vs. the Cubs this season, having allowed just three runs on 11 hits in 14 innings of work. His last time out, Martinez went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits against Pittsburgh. Here, there's a good chance he might not have to face Kris Bryant, which would obviously make his job a lot easier. 9* St. Louis

6* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Don't look now, but the Giants have won back to back games (first time since a six-game win streak was snapped on 7.2). Both times saw them rally at Cleveland's expense, first winning a 10-inning affair on Tuesday, then scoring three times in the bottom of the eighth to win 5-4 last night. Meanwhile, their weekend visitors just got swept in embarrassing fashion at Colorado. I played against the Padres yesterday and they were humbled, 18-4, dropping their already MLB-worst run differential to an unsightly -140. That's 34 runs worse than the Giants, who have the 2nd worst run differential in all of baseball. But the key to this play is not just how bad San Diego is, but also San Francisco, specifically starter Madison Bumgarner having revenge. Look for the G-Men to win again and send the slumping Padres to another defeat.

Bumgarner being winless is emblematic of this lost season for the Giants. Of course, that record comes with a rather "giant" (pun intended!) caveat, that being an injury that kept him out for almost three months. One could make the case that when "Mad-Bum" fell off the dirtbike in April, the Giants' season went with him. It has been a stunning fall from grace for a club that has won three World Series since 2010, but as stated above, they at least come into this series w/ some positive momentum (hate that word!). Saturday saw Bumgarner make his return against these Padres and while he lost (TSR now 0-5 in '17), there were signs of positive things to come, such as him striking out the side in the first inning. Unfortunately, he gave up two homers and that ended up being the difference in a 5-3 defeat.

Bumgarner will face the same pitcher he squared off against Saturday, that being Jhoulys Chacin. As we know, it's exceedingly rare to have the same pitchers face off in consecutive starts and one to win both times. Chacin has actually pitched well for the Padres of late, but he's generally been horrible on the road this year w/ an 8.16 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. The fact he has a 4-5 TSR in his nine road starts seems quite fortunate. Those concerned w/ this price range ought not to be. Yes, this will only be the second time all year that the Giants find themselves favored in the -175 to -250 price range. But, at home, they are 24-7 in that range the L3 seasons. San Diego, on the other hand, is 13-43 the L3 seasons as a ML road dog of +175 to +250. As I said when I played against them each of the L2 days, the Padres have been a terrible road team overall this year, now being outscored by an average of 1.7 rpg. 6* San Francisco

10* Texas (7:10 ET): Whenever I've played either on OR against the Rangers this season, I make it a point to talk about how this has been one of the hardest teams to evaluate - in all of baseball - the last two years. The 2016 club that won 95 games (most in the American League) was nowhere near as good as its record as they only outscored their opponents by a measly eight runs over the course of the year and were greatly aided by a historical 36-11 record in one-run games! This year, somewhat predictably, they've been just the opposite. Despite entering today at just 45-49, one could make a pretty clear-cut argument that they're much better than that record considering they've outscored their opponents by 10 runs (more than last year!). The big difference between this season and last is they're now 7-15 in one-run games, the WORST such record in baseball!

After winning their first two games after the All-Star Break, the Rangers have now dropped four straight, the last three coming here in Baltimore. Ironically, the Orioles are a team that has to be considered far WORSE than its 45-49 record (same as Rangers!) as they've been outscored by 73 runs this season. Coming into this series, they actually owned the worst run diff in the A.L. But with Cole Hamels on the mound Thursday, I see the Rangers avoiding the sweep. It was a shaky first start back for Hamels on 6.26 vs. Cleveland, but since then he's been "lights out" w/ a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball. He comes into today having not allowed a run in 21 consecutive innings, the longest such active streak in MLB. 

In terms of the starting pitching matchup here, it looks like a no contest as Baltimore will send the struggling Wade Miley to the bump. His last three starts have resulted in an 11.24 ERA and 2.748 WHIP. Twice in that stretch he's been tagged for seven runs, including his last time out, when I played against him vs. the Cubs. He's not gone a full six innings since June 1st, a span of eight starts. His ERA over those eight starts is a heinous 10.19. For the season, he has a WHIP of 1.79, one of the worst among all qualified AL starters. Texas has given him trouble throughout his career as in seven starts against them, his ERA is 5.75. The Rangers are the better team here, so what's happened in the series so far seems like an aberration to me. I look for their offense to wake up against Miley tonight. 10* Texas

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets have dropped the first two games of this four-game set, 6-3 and 5-0, but fortunately they have the definition of a "stopper" on the hill tonight, that being Jacob deGrom. The Mets are 6-0 in deGroms' last six starts w/ the last three seeing him turn in a 2.45 ERA and fantastic 0.773 WHIP. Now it's been the Cardinals' staff routinely turning in sharp efforts of late, holding the competition to just 1.9 runs and a .217 batting average the L7 games. Yesterday was their third shutout in the last six games alone. But the problem is that off the previous two shutouts, they've lost the next time out, dropping them to 2-6 this season off a shutout win. Make it 2-7 after this game as I don't like their starter Leake, who has a 1.80 WHIP his L3 starts.

It's pretty interesting to see the two starters w/ comparable ERA's over their last three starts (2.45 for deGrom, 3.24 for Leake). But deGrom's WHIP is over a full point lower, so what's going on? Not surprisingly, control issues have hurt Leake, his last start in particular. He issued five walks in a 5-2 loss at Pittsburgh Friday. Meanwhile, deGrom has issued just five walks total in his L5 starts! His KW ratio is 28-2 his L3 starts alone. He did allow FOUR home runs when he faced the Cards right before the All-Star Break, atypical to say the least, but all were solo shots and the Mets still won that game. It should also be pointed out that Leake allowed three home runs himself two starts ago as well. Last time out, deGrom was masterful in allowing just two runs (one earned) in eight innings vs. Colorado (only four hits).

This is a career-best win streak that deGrom is on and I really don't see an end in sight. He has a 1.53 ERA during the course of the current six-game streak, which began back on 6.12. Other than allowing the four solo shots to St. Louis on 7.7, he's allowed just 4 other runs - total during this stretch. He's gone at least seven innings in all six starts, four times going at least eight. Something to keep in mind is that in his last nine starts, Leake has an ERA of 4.56. The Mets really beat themselves yday by committing three errors. I don't see that happening again. St. Louis is 2-7 this season as a ML underdog of +125 to +175 on the road. 10* NY Mets

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): Rockies' fans were beginning to worry as their team (which had played so well for much of the 1st half) dropped 14 of 19 games heading into Sunday. But, they're now "sleeping a bit easier" after three consecutive wins, two of those coming against today's opponent, lowly San Diego. As I said in yday's analysis, this series was tailor-made for a Colorado bounce back as a case can be made that the Padres are the worst team in the league (-126 run differential). They also don't score much on the road (3.6 rpg), ranking last in that department. Making matters more frustrating for San Diego is that they actually HAVE scored in this series (13 runs in two games), yet lost both games. I see Colorado finishing off the sweep Weds afternoon.

Monday saw the Rockies jump out to a 7-2 lead early and hold on for a 9-6 win. Yesterday saw both teams score three times in the first inning, but it was the home team taking control from there. Today sees Clayton Richard attempting to break the trend and become the only Padres starter in the series not to get jumped on early. On the surface, his league-leading ground ball rate would seem to serve him well here. But, the bottom line is Richard has a 7.78 ERA in seven career starts here at Coors Field. It also won't help his cause that he's a low strikeout pitcher. He comes in sporting a 6.75 ERA and 2.00 WHIP his L3 starts overall as well (4.65 ERA L10 starts). Considering the way the Rockies have swung the bats the L3 days (31 runs scored!), this could end up being a pretty bad start for Richard. I also think it would be a mistake to assume he can get the same kind of run support the previous two Padres starters received (ended up being irrelevant) as well. 

For Colorado, Jon Gray will be looking to bounce back from an awful outing in which he allowed eight runs in two innings. Fortunately, we can lean on the fact that prior to that rough go of it (was on the road), he had allowed 2 ER or less in four consecutive starts. He's also fared quite well in the past against San Diego, including recording a franchise-high 16 K's in a start last September. He's yet to face them in 2017, but has a 2.30 ERA in seven career starts against them. That includes a somewhat remarkable 0.86 ERA here at Coors Field (three starts). He should love facing this San Diego lineup which ranks last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. 8* Colorado

8* Cleveland (10:15 ET): I feel that the Indians are a lot better than their record indicates as they are #1 in the American League in runs allowed, something that should serve them well down the home stretch. Though the division lead is only 1.5 games currently, I think most (myself included) are anticipating the Tribe winning the AL Central for a second straight year. After all, they have a run differential of +65 while the second place Twins are actually -63. So the fact that the race is so tight currently makes little to no sense to this handicapper. Part of the Indians' problem has been unusual struggles at home (21-24) and against the National League (4-11). They'll have to wait for another time to rectify the former, but last night saw them take a step in the right direction w/ the latter, beating up on the sorry Giants, 5-3. I have them winning again tonight. 

I feel that the oddsmakers have been VERY slow to react as to just how bad the Giants are this season. That feeling is reinforced by the fact that no team has lost more at the betting window (-27.4 units). This is a bad matchup for them as well considering Cleveland is #1 in the A.L. in runs allowed and now gets to face one of the weakest lineups in all of baseball (28th in runs scored) which has to send the pitcher up to bat as well. Yes, the loss of the DH affects Cleveland too, but the Giants only average 3.5 runs per game at home as their roster is no longer built to win in today's home run heavy game. They've hit only 77 balls out of the park this season, by far the fewest in all of baseball. Going back before the All-Star Break, the team has lost seven of eight and that includes two to the sorry Padres over the weekend.

Indians' starter Mike Clevinger should have a field day here against a lineup that is 28th in OBP and last (30th) in slugging. Even the embattled Josh Tomlin was able to turn in a quality start at the Giants' expense last night. Clevinger comes in w/ a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP his L3 starts and will be working on 10 days rest. Last we saw him, he was throwing six scoreless innings of three-hit ball against the Tigers. He's allowed 2 ER or less in five straight starts. It's a clear edge here for Clevinger against Ty Blach, who has a 6.46 ERA and 1.892 WHIP his L3 starts for the Giants. The last time Blach faced an American League lineup here at home, he gave up seven runs. The team has lost 14 of 18 here at home while Cleveland has been one of baseball's better road teams w/ a 27-19 record away from home. 8* Cleveland

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Needless to say, the Rockies have to be thrilled to be back at Coors Field, facing the lowly Padres no less! It was a somewhat ugly end to the first half of the season for a team that spent a good deal of time in first place in the NL West. In fact, after losing their first two games after the All-Star Break, their record was just 5-14 over a 19-game stretch. But Sunday's 13-4 over the Mets was just what "the doctor ordered" coming into this homestand, which will take them through the weekend. As alluded to earlier, San Diego is an ideal opponent to allow them to get back on track. The Padres own the worst run differential in all of MLB (-124) and are the lowest scoring road team - by far - at just 3.5 runs per game. Not even the hitter friendly confines of this park can save them today, I'm afraid.

Colorado, of course, has little difficulty scoring at home. Their 5.9 runs per game scoring average is tied for the best in all of baseball, which is not surprising at all. They're batting a collective .293 here, a far cry from the .226 clip San Diego bats at on the road. The Padres did score more than normal last night, but still, six runs was not enough and the game was basically out of reach after a five-run Rockies' third. I expect another big day at the plate here from Colorado as they face Dinelson Lamet, who is allowing lefties to hit .306 against him and has not pitched well on the road (8.00 ERA, 1.611 WHIP). Lamet has somehow avoided facing the Rockies to this point in '17 and tonight marks his first start since the Break. On July 6th, I played against him and he wound up giving up six runs in an 11-2 loss to Cleveland. 

The Rockies counter w/ Antonio Senzatela, who is making his first big league start in nearly a month. The team chose to rest him, first by using him out of the bullpen, then sending him down to Triple-A. Though his last several starts certainly weren't great, this was merely an attempt to limit the pitcher's inning, not a move based on performance. Senzatela's 10-5 team start record this year includes a 2-0 mark vs. SD, one win coming at home and the other on the road. He went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits in the one here at Coors. The Padres are just a dreadful road team overall, getting outscored by 1.7 rpg. Again, I feel this should be a "bounce back" type week for the Rockies and a sweep of this series would not surprise me in the least. 8* Colorado

8* Run Line Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. The Phils cashed for me on the RL last night, but the 6-5 loss (in 10 innings) means the revenge angle is still in play here as they've now lost four in a row to the Marlins (were swept here back in late May). In yesterday's analysis I mentioned that no team has played more one-run games this year than has Philly (36) and it's not even close. The fact that they are 11-25 in those contests certainly has a large hand in the team owning the worst overall record in MLB (30-61). But be aware that their YTD run differential remains better than those of the Padres and Giants. I'll continue to take advantage of the rare occurrence of Miami being in this price range

Monday's starter for Marlins was Tom Koehler. He entered in w/ a terrible 13.03 ERA and 2.689 WHIP His previous three starts. The Phillies were able to get to him early w/ four runs in the second, but sadly were unable to do much else the rest of the game. Incredibly though, the Marlins have a starter going tonight whose 2017 performance has been even WORSE compared to Koehler! Like Koehler, Adam Conley had been demoted earlier in the year because of it. Tonight wil be Conley's first start at the big league level in over two months and for good reason ... in his L3 starts, he posted a 15.18 ERA and 2.343 WHIP! He is 0-3 at home this season. He has not faced the Phillies in 2017. His minor league resume was hardly impressive either as he finished 3-3 w/ a 5.49 ERA.

Making this matchup somewhat interesting is the fact that Phillies starter Vincent Velasquez has also been persona non grata for the last month or so. But in his case, it was injury, not ineffectivenees, that caused him to miss time. Velasquez has been out w/ an elbow injury since May 30th, ironically suffered against these Marlins. Earlier in the year (back in April), Velasquez had pitched quite well against the Fish, holding them to just three runs in 6 1/3 IP at Citizens Bank Park, a game the Phils won 7-4. Unlike Conley, Velasquez's rehab starts went relatively well. I'll call for no worse than a one-run loss by the visitors here.  8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

10* Toronto (7:10 ET): The last time these two AL East rivals met (June 30th - July 2nd), the Red Sox absolutely dominated, outscoring the Jays 29-6 en rout to an easy three-game sweep at Rogers Centre. But tonight marks an excellent shot at revenge for Toronto as Boston is in a HORRIBLE spot, not only coming off the Sunday Night Game, but a day-night doubleheader as well! That's after a "controversial" (played game under protest) 16-inning loss on Saturday. The Red Sox are using this opportunity to reinsert Eduardo Rodriguez back into the starting rotation after he spent virtually all of June on the disabled list. But Rodriguez won't nearly be enough; in fact, Toronto has the better pitcher going in this one, that being Marcus Stroman.

I like what I've seen from Stroman of late as he has a 1.37 ERA and 1.118 WHIP his last three starts (no home runs allowed either). In his final start before the All-Star Break, he held high-powered Houston (highest scoring road team in MLB) to only one run and six hits. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of that win is how much the market respected him w/ the money line closing at -140. For whatever reason, he's not getting the same kind of respect here and that means there is a TON of value. Toronto does come in off B2B losses, but yday's was an extra-inning affair that easily could have gone either way. Stroman will be facing a Boston lineup that was held w/o a run for 22 innings at one point by Yankees pitching. Red Sox hitters were 3 for 38 w/ RISP in the weekend series.

Rodriguez' last start came on June 1st and he gave up four home runs and seven runs overall. I find that starters often struggle their first time back on the mound after a long stint on the DL. It was a knee injury that kept him out, which can be tricky to bounce back from. It certainly doesn't help that Rodriguez has a 6.35 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays either. Again, don't look for him to get a ton of support either as the Red Sox offense has been in serious decline this season, especially of late as they're batting a collective .210 (2.9 rpg scored) the L7 games. I really can't stress enough how bad of a spot this is for Boston and w/ Toronto having revenge, it becomes an even bigger play for yours truly. 10* Toronto

8* Run Line Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Phillies +1.5. Plays on the Phillies have been few and far between this season and figure to grow even more infrequent as the season winds down. The club enters Monday w/ the worst overall record in baseball (30-60) and that's after winning Sunday (5-2 at Milwaukee). I would like to point out, however, that both the Giants and Padres have worse run differentials over the course of the season. The Phils also come into this series w/ revenge on their minds after being swept by the Marlins here in Miami, back in late May. Speaking of getting swept, that's what happened to the Fish (at the hands of the Dodgers) over the weekend. Based on the starting pitching matchup, the home team is clearly overvalued in this one and I feel confident in saying Philly will do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Marlins starter Tom Koehler simply should never be in this price range, no matter the opponent. He enters Monday w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in 10 starts, seven of those resulting in team losses. Recently, the numbers have only gotten worse. While this includes one start that predates a demotion to the minors, his L3 big-league starts have seen him produce a 13.03 ERA and 2.689 WHIP, truly wretched numbers indeed. This will be his first time pitching at home since 5.16 when he allowed eight runs in just three innings against Houston. Since returning to the big leagues, Koehler has allowed 10 runs in 6 2/3 innings, although four of those were unearned. Still, Miami lost both games and Koehler isn't likely to turn things around any time soon. Nor are the Marlins as a whole. Koehler did not pitch in the last series w/ the Phillies.

Meanwhile, I like what I saw out of Phillies' starter Jack Eickhoff his last time out as he blanked the Padres for five innings, that coming on the heels of another impressive performance, that being holding Arizona to just one run in six innings. Both starts did come at home, but while his TSR is 0-7 on the road, this will be one of the weaker opponents he's had to face outside of Miami. The Marlins are averaging just 4.2 rpg at home this season. As was the case w/ Koehler, Eickhoff did not pitch in the previous series between these two teams. There have been four different times this season that the Phillies have lost an Eickhoff start by exactly one run. Their last loss (Saturday) was also of the one-run variety. Overall, no team has played more one-run games this season than the Phils (35!) and it's not even close. (Arizona is the only other team w/ more than 27). The fact they've gone 11-24 in those 35 games makes the RL more valuable here and they're probably "due" to win one of these one-run affairs sometime soon anyway. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5)

10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The fact that the Cardinals suffered a brutal loss on Sunday is something I'm "all too aware of" as I backed them in the series finale in Pittsburgh. Entering the bottom of the ninth w/ a 3-2 lead, they ended up as 4-3 losers, making it twice in that three-game set that they ended up losing in the game's final at-bat. You may be asking yourself "why so quick to abandon ship?" as the Cards did outhit the Pirates yday 13-8 and continue to maintain a positive run differential for the season despite a losing record. Well, this play has everything to do w/ the pitching matchup as Adam Wainwright and Zach Wheeler face off for a second time in 10 days. Wainwright & the Cards emerged victorious at Busch Stadium two Saturdays ago, but as I'm about to get into Wainwright's recent results are generally misleading. Look for Wheeler & the Mets to get their revenge.

Wainwright has won 8 of his last 11 starts, including three straight. But pay little mind to that fact as he comes into Monday still sporting a 5.20 ERA and 1.495 WHIP for the season. He did pitch well against the Mets his last time out, conceding only one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of work. However, he's been prone to bad starts throughout the year, most of them coming on the road where his ERA and WHIP are 8.36 and 1.832 respectively. Therefore, a 4-4 team start record away from Busch Stadium this year has to be considered somewhat fortuitous. In 12 career appearances vs. the Mets, 10 of them starts, Wainwright has 4.65 ERA. So, generally speaking, starts like the last one are an aberration against this particular opponent. 

It should be pointed out that Wheeler also pitched well last Saturday, giving up just two runs in six innings. He'd been struggling some before that, but he's allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. It's uncommon for one pitcher to beat another two starts in a row, so that's a major reason why I'm backing Wheeler in this instance. While the Mets were embarrassed yday at home (lost 13-4 to the Rockies), they still won the weekend series against a foe superior to St. Louis and did so by averaging 9.0 runs per game. Overall, the Mets are the better offensive club here as they rank 5th in slugging (.448). St. Louis has a losing road record thanks to giving up 5.0 rpg. 10* NY Mets

10* Boston (8:05 ET): Just when you thought the Red Sox might start to pull away from the Yankees, they go out and lose to them Saturday in a wild affair that wasn't decided until the 16th inning. Boston played the game under protest for a play that occurred in the 11th inning, but the bottom line is they should have wrapped things up much earlier as New York didn't score until the top of the ninth. (Chris Sale was his usual masterful self). The two teams are probably glad that Saturday's game was played in the afternoon because they're playing a day-night doubleheader on Sunday, which puts a major impetus on the starters for today. With David Price on the hill for Game 2 (ESPN Sun Night Baseball), I'll back the Red Sox here and honestly, I'd feel even stronger if they were to lose the first game. Regardless of what happens in Game 1 though, I'm backing Boston in the nightcap.

The Yankees have been carried by their offense this year, which led by Aaron Judge is now 3rd in MLB in runs scored. That's a huge jump after ranking 22nd last year and Judge deserves a lion's share of the credit. But it's the other side of the ledger where I'm more concerned. Michael Pineda is now done for the year (Tommy John surgery), leaving a major hole in the starting rotation. The bullpen is in serious decline, whether you're talking Aroldis Chapman or Dellin Betances. In the case of Betances, his heavy workload over the L2 seasons can probably be blamed. Furthermore, the Yanks should probably feel fortunate that they were #4 in runs allowed over the first half among AL clubs. The defense, which often plays a HUGE factor in a team's number of runs allowed, is simply not very good. I don't have a ton of confidence here in starter Masahiro Tanaka, who has been routinely hammered on the road this year (6.24 ERA, 1.632 WHIP).  

Now the Yankees have certainly been one of Price's toughest opponents through the years. But w/ the lefty having allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his nine starts this year, I'll still gladly back him at this price, especially at Fenway Park. Boston is 26-15 in home games this season. He has not allowed a home run in four starts. It certainly is odd to see the Red Sox offense struggle the way it has over the previous seven games (2.9 rpg w/ .195 BA). I look for them to knock around Tanaka tonight the same way they did last month when they scored five time off him in five innings. 10* Boston

8* Run Line Kansas City (2:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Royals +1.5. Six times the Rangers and Royals have met this season and all six times the combo of Rangers & Under has hit. Today marks the final time KC can achieve victory at Texas' expense in 2017. They've taken two hard luck losses to begin this series, first blowing a 3-0 lead on Friday, then losing 1-0 last night w/ the game's only run scored in the top of the ninth. The irony here is that for much of the year it has been the Rangers who have experienced the hard luck, which some (myself included!) would say was "deserved" after LY's unsustainable blueprint that saw 36 of their 95 wins come by one run. Thanks to the L2 days and the fact Yu Darvish is pitching for the Rangers today, we are now able to get some added insurance on the Royals, which was NOT the case either Friday or Saturday. 

We should not be too intimidated by the fact Darvish is pitching here however, as the Rangers have lost his L5 starts w/ him turning in a 5.61 ERA and 1.472 WHIP the last three. Granted, he was a bit of a hard luck loser in his final start before the All-Star Break (allowed just two runs on three hits in 7 1/3 IP), but note he did also walk four batters there. That was after getting hammered by Boston in his previous start. He was sharp against the Royals back in April, but did allow 2 HR's. I've said this in my analysis each of the last two days (and it hasn't mattered), but the Rangers' bullpen is not good on the road as their ERA/WHIP is 6.17/1.730.

The Royals have wasted two perfectly good starts from Jason Hammel and Danny Duffy so far in this series. Today, Ian Kennedy goes. Kennedy can probably empathize w/ Darvish's winless stretch as he too went a long period w/o a win. In fact, he was winless over his first 11 starts of 2017. But since that time, he's 3-0 w/ a 2.67 ERA. Incredibly, the Royals have lost 12 straight times to the Rangers. You just don't see streaks like that very often. I'm a firm believer in the revenge angle (for a previous sweep of three or more games), but given how the first two games of this series have gone, I'll be a little more conservative and say the home team won't do any worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

10* St. Louis (1:35 ET): The current narrative in the NL Central is that the Cubs will eventually get their act together and wrest away first place from Milwaukee. But don't sleep on the Cardinals, who are just a game back of the reigning World Series Champs and have the superior YTD run differential as well. After dropping Friday's opener, the Redbirds shut Pittsburgh out yday, 4-0. Starter Lance Lynn was the hero, not only for tossing 6 1/3 scoreless innings, but also due to supplying all the run support that was necessary w/ a two-run double. Today, the Cards have their most accomplished starter going, that being Carlos Martinez, who the Pirates have somehow gotten to avoid in seven prior head to head meetings w/ their division rival. I'll back Martinez here, noting that the Cards have not lost any of their previous four series.

Martinez hasn't been at his best lately, losing his last three starts. But pay no mind to that or the fact he's just 6-8 in his team-leading 18 starts. Because Martinez ranks among the NL leaders in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and innings pitched. Opponents are batting just .213 against him for the year, so the won-loss record definitely "deserves" to be a bit better. He's turned in four starts w/ 10+ K's, including his last one on the road. The Pirates hardly present a formidable challenge at the plate as they rank 24th in runs scored, 23rd in team batting average and 27th in slugging. Of course, they were shutout yday. At home, the Bucs are averaging only 3.7 runs per game.

Pirates starter Trevor Williams has only faced the Cardinals as a reliever previous to today. All three appearances came last year and the results were not great as his ERA was 6.23. Today will be his 13th start overall and last time out happened to be his shortest stint to date. He needed 80 pitches just to record 11 outs and gave up three runs in the process. The team has lost each of the last five times he's taken the mound. To me, the Cards are a team to watch here in the second half while the Pirates likely fade into obscurity as they're a team that has been below .500 the entire season. 10* St. Louis

8* Over Rays/Angels (9:05 ET): Similar to the Over play on Rangers-Royals, I'm counting on the "just due" factor just a bit in this one. That can be dicey, but like the other matchup discussed in this three-pack, all five head to head meetings this year have stayed Under the total. As have 11 of the 12 the past two seasons including seven straight. While we're bucking a significant trend tonight, I feel the play is warranted because we're getting a good number to work with plus the Rays remain the top Over team in the American League! Last night's game saw both teams score early (1-1 after two), but from there it was nothing but scoreless frames until TB won it in the top of the 10th. I can't see a repeat of that this evening.

Though he comes in w/ a miniscule 0.591 WHIP his last three starts, the Rays' Alex Cobb has by no means by immune to bad outings. In fact, that three start stretch includes him allowing seven runs at Baltimore, his last road start. Yes, that also illustrates just how dominant he was in the other two, but one of those was at Tropicana Field and the other in a NL park (didn't have to face the DH). Two of his last three starts in AL parks that are not his own have been disasters. There was the aformentioned one in Baltimore, plus he allowed NINE runs and 14 hits in Seattle back on June 3rd. He has a 6.51 ERA in five career starts vs. the Angels and Mike Trout (who just returned to the lineup yday) has hit two homers off him in five at-bats. It goes w/o saying that the Angels lineup is far more formidable now that their perennial MVP candidate is back.

JC Ramirez may be the staff leader in wins for the Angels w/ 8, but that's misleading as he also has a 4.47 ERA (which includes time in the bullpen). As a starter, he's struggled at home w/ a 5.21 ERA and 1.307 WHIP and he's winless (0-4) in eight tries. He's coming off one of his better outings of the season, having held Texas to no runs and two hits over six innings on Sunday. But even then, he issued five walks and had just two strikeouts. Ramirez had allowed 4+ ERA in five of seven starts previous to that one. Bottom line is that I anticipate a lot more scoring here than we saw last night. 8* Over Rays/Angels

10* Kansas City (7:15 ET): The Royals let me down last night as the blew a 3-0 lead and lost 5-3 to the Rangers. They are now 0-5 head to head w/ Texas in 2017, having also been swept down in Arlington back in late April. Those who have been following my picks for an extended period of time know that I "swear by" this angle, which says to back any team playing w/ revenge for a prior sweep of three games or more. Obviously, it's still in play tonight. The Royals outhit the Rangers last night, 8-7, not to mention starter Jason Hammel took a no-hitter into the sixth! It was an unfortunate loss, but one the Royals should be able to bounce back from as the Rangers have not enjoyed anywhere near the kind of good fortune they did last year. I'm on the home team again. 

Danny Duffy will be making his 14th start of the year for KC tonight. Four of the previous 13 (including the last one) have been bad (allowed 5+ ER), but in the other nine he's allowed 2 ER or less. In the previous series w/ the Rangers, he took what is the definition of a "hard-luck loss" as despite throwing 7 1/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball, the Royals lost 1-0. Last time out, he allowed three home runs in a loss to the Dodgers, but one could argue that was a good spot to "waste" as he was a +255 ML underdog against Clayton Kershaw. I fully expect Duffy to bounce back here as he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.194 WHIP at Kauffman Stadium. Due to a stint on the DL, this will be his first time pitching here since May 18th. Also, lost in the three home runs allowed last time out was the fact he finished the start w/ a 9-0 KW rate. 

This will be a battle of lefties as the Rangers send Cole Hamels to the bump. He's working on a 13 1/3 scoreless inning streak, but don't be surprised at all to see him regress in this start. He has a 5.09 ERA on the road this year. Note that the Rangers' offense has made it easy for him by scoring a total of 43 runs in his last four starts! While I expect this game to be higher scoring than anticipated (see Over play), I don;t envision Hamels getting anywhere near that kind of support. Also, as mentioned yday, the Rangers' bullpen has largely been a disaster on the road this year w/ a 6.17 ERA and 1.730 WHIP. Revenge wll be sweet for the home team (who "should" have won yday, if not for some cluster luck by the Rangers) in this one. 10* Kansas City

8* Over Rangers/Royals (7:15 ET): Additionally, I also like the Over in tonight's Rangers-Royals matchup. Not only has Texas won all five meetings this season, but the Under has also cashed all five times as well. In addition to the "just due" factor, we're looking at a situation where Texas was very fortunate to allow only three runs last night. In the analysis for my play on the Royals tonight, I spoke about the fact that starter Danny Duffy has typically pitched well at home this season. I stand by that. However, might he too be "due" for an Over to hit? The Under has cashed in all five of his home starts this season. He spent all of June on the DL, but remember that he closed 2016 w/ all six starts in September going Over the total. 

As for Cole Hamels, who gets the nod Saturday for the Rangers, all four of his road starts this year have gone Over (6-1 Over overall). His last four starts, which includes one before his own extended stay on the disabled list, have seen the Texas offense score an incredible 43 runs! All four games have seen at least 10 runs scored total w/ three of them seeing 14 or more runs. Though he comes in on a 13 1/3 inning scoreless streak, I expect Hamels to struggle some here being that this is a road start and he has a 5.09 ERA this year outside of Arlington. Finally, I'll again reiterate how bad the Rangers' bullpen has been this year on the road w/ a 6.17 ERA and 1.730 WHIP.  8* Over Rangers/Royals

10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): While many teams sport a worse record, there's no denying the Cubs belong on the short list for "biggest disappointments" in the first half of this MLB season. Last year, the team essentially dominated from "start to finish" last year en route to the franchise's first World Series win since 1908. Despite bringing back the vast majority of key contributors, 2017 has been more of a struggle. They went into the Break at a game below .500 and were it not for their terrible division, they might be in real trouble. Fortunately, there's still a lot of baseball to play though and that includes this three-game set in Baltimore where the Orioles are likely set for a major decline. The Cubs took the 1st game, 9-8 on Friday (after blowing an 8-0 lead!), and I feel they are poised for another win here tonight.

Back on May 9th, the Orioles were a season-best 12 games above .500 at 22-10 thanks to a six-game win streak. The decline has been both severe and fast. They are just 20-37 since and, of late, things have gotten quite ugly (11-21 L32 games). A loss like yday's, where they rallied back from an eight-run deficit (tied game in bottom of the eighth) only to still lose, can certainly be crushing. Of course, one could make the case that a loss such as Friday's was long overdue considering the team's record is somewhat propped up by a very fortunate 9-2 record in extra inning games (a MLB best!). Their -79 run differential (2nd worst in AL) and says their record should actually be a lot worse than it is. Based on the current trajectory, do not be surprised to see the O's end up in the AL East basement sooner rather than later. 

Emblematic of the Cubs' mediocre start is Jake Arrieta's 9-9 team start record. The former Cy Young winner actually began his career w/ Baltimore before enjoying a career renaissance w/ his current club. His numbers aren't all too impressive, but note that he rarely turns in B2B substandard outings and last time out he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 IP. He'll be opposed by a pitcher whose struggling far more than he, that being Wade Miley, who over his L3 starts has produced an awful 8.02 ERA and 2.431 WHIP. His season-long 1.748 WHIP is certainly cause for concern as he gets to face a Cubs lineup that hit five home runs yday and benefits from the use of the DH in this series. Pay little mind to the fact Baltimore is 25-16 in Camden Yards this season as they've actually been outscored here! Also, the Cubs are 14-6 this seasons vs. LH starters. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Over Rays/Angels (10:07 ET): If you're a believer in regression/progression to the mean like I am, then both of these teams should have been on your improved list for 2017. The Rays finished in last place in the AL East last year, but played far better than their 68-94 record would seem to indicate as they were doomed by a league-worst 13-27 record in one-run games. It was a somewhat similar story for the Angels, who were actually only outscored by 10 runs the entire season despite a 74-88 finish (were 0-4 in extra inning games!). Sure enough, both teams have improved here in 2017. The Rays moreso, as I'm calling from them to be the AL's second Wild Card. The Angles have no shot at a division crown as unfortunately the Astros also reside in the AL West. But don't discount them from also being a contender for that second WC, a spot which is wide open behind the four "obvious" playoff teams (Astros, Indians, Red Sox, Yankees). 

Now let's look at the actual matchup, shall we? Rather quietly, Tampa Bay was the AL's top Over team in the first half (53-36-1). Only the Mets have gone Over in more games. Their games average a solid 9.5 runs for the year. The offense went into the Break averaging just 3.3 runs over the L7 games, but should have a chance to get back on track tonight facing Ricky Nolasco, whose last start was a disaster of the highest order. He allowed eight runs in just 1 2/3 IP, a stark contrast from his two previous outings when he tossed 15 1/3 scoreless innings. Nolasco has allowed the most home runs in all of baseball (25) and his career numbers (6.67 ERA in 10 starts) vs. the Rays don't exactly foretell a quality start is on the horizon here.

There is a bit of good news today for the Angels. Actually, I can't think of any better news from their perspective. They'll be getting Mike Trout back! The perennial MVP candidate was hitting .337 w/ 16 HR's before suffering a torn ligament in his thumb back in late May. Like the Rays, LA's offense struggled going into the Break as they averaged just 2.7 runs over the L7 games. But Trout's return should pay immediate dividends. I say that knowing how well Rays starter Jacob Faria pitched in the first half, but it's still a somewhat limited sample size (six starts) for him. The Angels were an Under team in the 1st half, but that's b/c of what's taken place on the road (18-30-2). Here at home, we've actually seen slightly more Overs than Unders. When these teams met for four games at Tropicana Field back in late May, all four games stayed Under w/ none seeing more than seven total runs scored (each team recorded a shutout in the series). That brings the Under to 10-1 the L11 H2H matchups, so if anything we're just "due" for an Over tonight. 10* Over Rays/Angels

10* Kansas City (8:15 ET): For the past several seasons, the Royals and Rangers have been two of the American League's best teams. Not this year, however. KC dug themselves a massive hole w/ an awful start to the season, but to their credit, they've climbed out of it somewhat. They went into the Break a game above .500, although they were swept in their last series (Dodgers) and have been outscored by 25 runs over the course of the season. Texas' first half can be summarized by one important word - regression. Last year's team rode an unsustainable blueprint en route to 95 wins (most in AL) and a divsion title. They outscored opponents by only EIGHT runs the entire season, clearly benefiting from a historic 36-11 record in one-run games. This year's run differential is actually superior (+29), but they happen to be two games BELOW .500. 

Now let's look at the actual matchup we have on Friday. The Rangers swept a four-game set from the Royals, in Arlington, back in late April. That was when KC wasn't playing well at all (ended April on a nine-game losing streak). But since May 1st, they're a solid 37-27. Going back to last season, the Rangers are a somewhat stunning 10-1 head to head w/ the Royals. That, coupled with the discussion above, makes me think some serious regression is about to take hold this weekend. Texas is not a particularly good road team this season (just 18-25) and is coming off just its second shutout loss of the season (Sunday vs. Angels). Back when they swept the Royals in April, Kansas City's offense was not performing well at all. They scored just five runs in those four games. But the offense has since "upped its game" a bit and now ranks 21st in team batting average as well as 22nd in slugging. That's actually pretty good when you consider they were 30th in both categories at one point.

The Royals' should have a chance at continuing their offensive resurgence in this game as they face Martin Perez, who has a 4.60 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in 16 starts. Perez has allowed at least four runs in three consecutive starts (all at home), although two of those actually resulted in Rangers' wins and he received ample run support. Going back further, he's allowed 4+ runs in five of his last six starts. KC counters w/ Jason Hammel, who had a poor 1st half as well (4-13 TSR), but he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts and seems "due" (for a win) to me. As a sizable underdog (+187), he pitched well his last time out (in Dodger Stadium), turning in a quality start. If this one were to come down to the respective bullpens, that's a big edge for the Royals as Rangers' relievers have a collective 6.26 ERA and 1.750 WHIP away from home this year. 10* Kansas City

8* Under Royals/Dodgers (4:10 ET): For much of the early part of this season, Kansas City was the lowest scoring team in baseball. They've since been able to raise their rankings to 27th in runs scored, 21st in team batting average, 29th in OBP and 22nd in slugging. By definition, that's improvement, but as you can see, it's still not all that impressive. No stadium has been better at visitor run suppression this year than has Chavez Ravine where Dodgers' opponents are averaging all of 2.9 runs per game (.209 batting average). Today, Clayton Kershaw is pitching and I shouldn't have to really reinforce what that means (just look at the money line!). But KC also has Danny Duffy going today and that means this should end up as a low-scoring game all around. Take the Under.

Kershaw is putting together one of his finest seasons, which is really saying something when you look back at his career body of work. Right now, he'd probably be the Cy Young winner in the National League. The Dodgers have won 16 of the 18 times he's taken the mound this season (including 12 straight!) and of late, it's as if opponents don't even have a chance. The lone run Kershaw allowed over his previous three starts was unearned and he has a 0.700 WHIP as well. He's allowed just nine hits in 20 IP and has 31 K's. At home this year, he has a 2.52 ERA and 0.868 WHIP, yet surprisingly the O/U results are split (5-5) in 10 starts. That's due to a combo of low totals and the fact the Dodgers can score too, but I don't think the latter element will be a factor this afternoon. Also remember that the Royals have to face Kershaw w/o the DH. That's a scary proposition. Over the Dodgers' last 18 games, they've allowed more than four runs just twice! They are #1 in runs allowed, having allowed 44 fewer than the #2 team (Cleveland).

Duffy can at least keep the Royals in this one though as 8 of his 12 starts have been quality this year. He was one out away from making it 9 of 12 his last time out as he gave up just two runs (on five hits) in 5 2/3 IP, his return from an oblique strain that kept him all of June. Going back, he's now allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts. For Kershaw, holding the opposition to 2 ER or less is obvously "old hat" as he's done it 14 times in his 18 starts. I failed to mention earlier that Kershaw took a no-hitter into the 7th inning of his last start as he increased his YTD KW ratio to 146-22. Hopefully, he does his thing again today and we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth, which is always helpful w/ an Under bet. Yesterday's game (5-4 win for LA) went into extra innings. 8* Under Royals/Dodgers

8* Arizona (4:10 ET): By any objective measure, the first half of the season has been a rousing success for the D'backs. They currently own the top Wild Card spot in the National League (trail the insanely hot Dodgers by 6.5 gms in the West) and are one of just four clubs to have outscored their opponents by 100+ runs over the course of the year. They are 53-35 coming into Sunday, which is well above projections after they lost 93 games a year ago. However, they did lose last night to Cincinnati, 7-0. That embarrassment has me thinking "revenge" for this final game before the All-Star Break. Cincinnati, which has actually performed somewhat better than expected (despite being 38-49), is not a good team and Homer Bailey being on the mound today seems to put them at a severe disadvantage.

In three starts so far, Bailey has a 12.65 ERA and 2.343 WHIP. Not good. Now, he is coming off his best start to date, one that saw him allow only one run (but on eight hits) in Colorado. But that right there should tell you just how horrid the first two starts of the season were. He allowed 14 runs in 4 2/3 innings and his strikeout numbers (7 TOTAL!) are anything but impressive so far. Last night marked just the 4th time all season that Arizona has been shut out and while they're 0-3 off the previous three occurrences, the fact remains this team can score here at Chase Field where they average a healthy 5.9 runs per game. That's the most rpg of any team in the National League and trails only the Yankees overall. The offense is a major reason why the D'backs are 33-14 at home this year.

Cincy is just 19-34 its L53 games and doesn't win B2B games very often. In fact, that's happened just twice over the last month. So recent history is not on the Reds side here nor is the venue as they face the best home team in MLB and are just 15-28 on the road themselves (-1.2 rpg). They're also only 5-14 vs. left-handed starters and face one here today in the form of Patrick Corbin, who is "due" a win after some tough results each of his last three outings. Despite allowing 3 ER or less in all three, Corbin has seen the team lose every time. Last time out, he had had the unfortunate experience of having to go opposite Clayton Kershaw, who took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. His two starts prior to that one saw Corbin allow just three runs in 12 2/3 IP.  The D'backs are clearly the better team here, especially at home, and should win this one easily. 8* Arizona

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies have been one of the great stories of the 1st half as for a time they had the best record in all of baseball. But, recently, they have slipped. Most notably, they went 1-10 from 6.21 to 7.2, all but two of those games taking place on the divisional road. One would have thought that a return home, to face a pair of last place opponents, would signal an "uptick" prior to the All-Star Break. But instead, the Rockies have only managed a split of six games so far w/ the Reds and White Sox. Last night, they lost 5-4 after closer Greg Holland gave up a HR in the top of the ninth. Even when the Rockies were winning, run differential suggested that they were not in the Dodgers and D'backs class. But I feel they certainly should be able to handle the White Sox. Therefore, off a loss, they'll get my endorsement here. 

The White Sox are currently 10 games under .500, which is what was pretty much expected coming into the year, but they've been a bit more competitive than I would have thought. They've only been outscored by 22 runs as early in the year, their pitching staff was keeping them in games. But that's not really the case anymore as only five AL teams have allowed more runs this season and the team is just 7-12 its L19 games overall. You'd figure that the pitching would struggle here at Coors Field and sure enough they did give up 12 runs in a loss Friday. That came after giving up seven in B2B games to Oakland. Carlos Rodon starts the final game before the ASB and while he treated me well his last time out, note that was just his 2nd start of '17 and in the first (against the Yankees), he walked six batters.

Kyle Freeland goes for Colorado and he's made the most of these Interleague opportunities thus far. He's gone 3-0 vs. AL foes this season w/ a 2.95 ERA. Two of those starts were in AL parks as well, meaning he had to deal w/ the DH. While Chicago's lineup should theoretically improve here in the thin air, it really hasn't the first two games (just 9 runs total) as they lose the DH in this series. Freeland has not pitched well in any of his L3 starts, but I'll call for the bounce back today as I feel he'll get the requisite run support. Gerrardo Parra has been hitting the cover off the ball since returning to the lineup and you can trace his absence to the team's struggles previously. This is the kind of game, that if Colorado is a true playoff contender, they should win easily. 8* Colorado

8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yankees were staring at yet another defeat Saturday (would have been their 18th in last 24 games!) before a three-run homer by Clint Frazier in the bottom of the ninth changed all that. Of course, "some" (myself included) might be willing to call that a bit of "comeuppance" considering the way the team wearing pinstripes blew Friday's opener (led 3-0, lost 9-4 after rain delay). Despite what has happened over the last month, the Yanks are still in great shape entering the All-Star Break as they are only 3.5 games back of rival Boston in the AL East and also have one of baseball's best run differentials (4th) at +100. Milwaukee has been a major surprise as they continue to lead the Cubs in the NL Central, but I don't think I'm alone in believing that won't last for long.

Starting today for the Yanks will be Masahiro Tanaka. While he's been inconsistent for much of the year, Tanaka has most definitely been sharp of late. In fact, he's 2-0 (3-0 TSR) w/ a 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP his L3 starts. He hasn't allowed a single home run during that stretch either. Having a 1.089 WHIP at home (eight starts) tells me that 4.25 ERA is certainly a bit misleading, and at least in the Bronx, he's due for better results. Over those L3 starts, he has beaten the likes of Yu Darvish, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman, all top notch pitchers. Yes, I'm aware that during this 7-17 stretch the Yanks have not posted B2B wins even one time nor have they won a series. But I believe yday was a bit of a "game-changer" and today's game sets up well. 

Typically, the National League struggles in Interleague Play. The last season they posted a winning record against American League counterparts was 2003! It's another losing record so far here in 2017, but the Brew Crew are at least doing their part w/ an 8-4 mark in IL play. Still, they are underdogs for a reason and after being big dogs on the ML the L2 days, I find it curious that the Yanks are so inexpensive Sunday. Perhaps that's because Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee's best pitcher is on the hill, but he's not been that great on the road (4.62 ERA, 1.205 WHIP). Over his L6 starts, he's gotten to face a relatively weak slate of opponents that includes all sub-.500 foes. The Brewers may have a better record than the Yankees, but their YTD run differential (+43) isn't half as good. 8* NY Yankees

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): Believe it or not, but the Mariners had actually lost eight in a row here at Safeco Field prior to last night's 7-2 win. While James Paxton and the bullpen held the A's to all of three hits Friday, the game was actually closer than the final score indicates as the M's didn't really have any breathing room until breaking loose for four runs in the bottom of the eighth, which effectively put the game out of reach. Still though, I expect them to likely win the next two days and head into the All-Star Break w/ some "momentum" (hate that word!) in what has been a very "up and down" 1st half. For my money, Oakland remains - clearly - the worst team in the American League. 

The A's had won three in a row before losing last night, but also had lost six straight prior to that brief win streak. Actually, speaking of "up and down," that's what it's been for them over the last month. Starting at 6.10, they've lost four straight, then won four straight, then lost four straight, then won four straight, then lost six straight, then won three straight and lost last night. That's an odd way to get to 11-15 over a 26-game stretch, but the bottom line remains this is a bad team, one that is a lousy 14-28 on the road this year while getting outscored by 1.4 rpg. They turn to a spot starter tonight, Chris Smith, who at 36 years of age will become the oldest A's pitcher in history to make his first big league start. At this point, I think it's fair to say he's NOT a prospect. He does have 64 relief appearances at the Major League level, but it says something that the team hasn't asked him to start until now. 

Note that prior to the eight-game home losing streak, Seattle was a very good 25-13 at Safeco Field. So, it definitely was a surprise to see them struggle like they did. But now that the streak is over, I look for them to play better in their home park. They average 5.1 rpg here. Starting tonight will be Andrew Moore, whose first two starts have produced a 0.733 WHIP. In 15 IP, he's allowed just 11 hits and perhaps more impressive is that he hasn't walked anybody. He has allowed 3 HR's, but other than that, he's been pretty dominant. One final thing to note is that Oakland's bullpen is pretty lousy on the road (5.92 ERA, 1.520 WHIP). 8* Seattle

8* Run Line Detroit (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5. While they've struggled at home all season long (MLB worst, by far and away, at -21.8 units), Cleveland has won big each of the L2 days here at Progressive Field. I was on them Thursday when they routed lowly San Diego, 11-2. But, despite being large ML favorites last night, I thought the situation dictated an appropriate time to fade them as Carlos Carrasco and Jordan Zimmerman were facing off for a second straight start and the latter had revenge. But it was not to be as the Tigers lost 11-2. Tonight, the same situation presents itself w/ Justin Verlander again facing off against Mike Clevinger. The odds are not nearly as dramatically in the Indians favor this time around and I don't see Clevinger beating Verlander for a second straight time. But for a little "added insurance," we'll play the run line here.

Last Sunday saw the Indians win a wild 11-8 game w/ both of tonight's starters on the mound. Verlander, admittedly, turned in a poor effort as he allowed seven runs in just 3 1/3 innings. That paved the way for what appeared to be an easy Cleveland win as Clevinger allowed just one run on two hits through six. But the usually strong Indians' bullpen allowed the game to get a lot closer than it should have been as the final score was "only" 11-8 in their favor. That said, I look for a reversal of fortune on Saturday. While it's true that Clevenger has allowed 2 ER or less in four straight starts, he's also never lasted more than six innings in any of them. Also note that last September, Verlander and the Tigers beat Clevinger and the Indians 12-0 w/ Clevinger giving up five runs in only two innings. In only two of his 10 starts has Clevinger lasted longer than six innings. He's also winless at home (0-4 TSR) w/ a 4.50 ERA.

History also supports a Detroit bounce back in this spot as they have gone 6-1 this season after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Also, Cleveland is still w/o skipper Terry Francona, who is recovering from a minor procedure for an irregular heartbeat. As for Verlander, while he's had two bad starts against the Indians this year, he also had one good one, that coming back on 5.2 where he allowed just two runs and four hits in 7 IP. Prior to the bad outing his last time out, he'd given up 3 ER or fewer in six straight starts. No worse than a one-run loss here for the Tigers. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5)

8* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): On this final weekend before the All-Star Break, we have a number of non-divisional foes in the National League meeting for the first time this season. One such matchup is here, yet I'm assuming "good seats are still available" for Padres-Phillies, a battle between arguably the two worst teams in all of baseball. San Diego has the better overall record (37-49 compared to 28-57) and won last night's series opener, 4-3. However, they also sport the vastly inferior run differential (-123 to -97) and I happen to view that particular metric as being a far more reliable predictor of future results than a team's won-loss record. Therefore, I'll offer up a rare endorsement of the Phillies Sat afternoon as they have what looks to be a big time edge on the mound as well.

Last night saw the teams having to wait out a 94-minute rain delay. It came w/ SD leading 3-1 and afterwards, the Phillies wasted little time in tying the game up. So it appeared as if Mother Nature was certainly on the home team's side. Alas, a sac fly in the top of the ninth by the Padres' Austin Hedges ended up being the difference. That GW run was the lone run scored by the Padres last night that didn't come off a solo HR. Philly actually outhit them for the game, 9-8. The win was SD's 4th in the past 5 games, however, the road has generally been unkind to this ballclub throughout 2017. They're just 15-27 outside of Petco Park and getting outscored by 1.7 rpg in the process. I value that trend more than anything in today's matchup. 

Both of today's starting pitchers didn't allow a run in their respective last starts. But while the Padres' Jhoulys Chacin has been victimized by lack of run support more than anything else, there's no escaping the fact he's pitched very poorly on the road this season. In eight road starts, he has a 9.33 ERA and 1.991 WHIP. Therefore, it's actually a bit shocking to also see him w/ a 3-5 team start record. Meanwhile, the Phillies' Aaron Nola has simply been "lights out" of late as his ERA and WHIP over his L3 starts overall are 1.27 and 0.938. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings of four-hit ball against Pittsburgh. That also happens to be the last time the Phillies won. Facing a Padres lineup that ranks 30th (i.e. dead last!) in MLB in runs scored, team batting average and OBP should make for another quality effort from Nola here. 8* Philadelphia

8* Baltimore (2:10 ET): I'm "digging in my heels" w/ the Orioles here as they are now 0-5 this season head to head w/ the Twins. On the surface, neither side seems to have any dramatic edge over the other, so Minnesota having the O's number really makes little sense. The revenge angle that applies to Baltimore in this series remains one of my favorites as in today's game it's simply too hard to continually beat the same team day after day. The first two games of this series have been particularly frustrating for both myself and O's fans as the Twins have done all their scoring (15 runs) in four innings. That's some serious "cluster luck" there. In fact, in Thursday's opener, they scored all six runs in one frame. Last night was even more frustrating when you consider Baltimore had raced out to an early 6-0 lead before conceding the game's final nine runs! Revenge is still on the O's side and will be theirs Saturday afternoon.

Maybe a starting pitching change will do Baltimore some good here. Now Wade Miley was by no means effective his last time out. He allowed seven runs in 1 2/3 innings in what was a truly ugly performance, his worst of 2017, in fact. But I believe the southpaw will rebound today, if for no other reason than he's "due." Note that going into June 1st, Miley was sporting a 2.82 ERA. Admittedly, this has not been a good stretch for him or the team, which has lost five straight and seven of the last eight. But I remain highly skeptical of a Twins team that is somehow above .500 despite a run differential of -50 for the season. Even after winning each of the L2 days, the Twins still have the worst home record in the American League.

Adalberto Meija, also a lefty, will start here for Minnesota. He's 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 1.53 ERA. As impressive as that might sound, his 1.302 WHIP during the same stretch indicates he's had good fortune. Furthermore, Meija's numbers over the course of the season are far from impressive. Here at Target Field, he has a 5.66 ERA and 1.685 WHIP in seven starts. Given that Baltimore has jumped on both Twins' starters they've faced so far, I have no reason to doubt they can do the same to Meija. I feel that the O's have looked like the better team for the majority of those two games; it's just that the Twins have been able to produce a couple of big innings. Rarely are the Twins priced this high, even at home. 8* Baltimore

10* Baltimore (8:10 ET): Up 2-0 entering the bottom of the third, my Run Line play on the Orioles (+1.5) last night was looking pretty good. Unfortunately, that was when the "dam broke" and Minnesota scored six runs in the inning and wound up winning by two. Needless to say, it was a very frustrating result w/ the Twins scoring all of their runs in just one inning, all coming w/ two outs! They benefited from two fielders' choices plus a hit batsmen. Other than that one inning, they had just five hits in the game. Baltimore outhit them overall 11-8, but left runners on base in the 7th (bases loaded!), 8th and 9th innings and went just 2 for 9 w/ RISP, leaving 10 men on base. They still have revenge from a prior sweep at the hands of the Twins (that occurred at Camden Yards back in May), which is why I'll back them here again tonight. 

The Twins continue to be one of the most curious teams to evaluate in all of MLB. They're three games above .500 despite an awful -53 run differential. They also have the worst home record in all of baseball at 19-26. Now, I'm well aware that Baltimore has the American League's worst run differential (-85) and is 15-29 on the road this season. But while yday brought what appeared to be an outstanding pitching matchup (on paper) of Bundy vs. Berrios, tonight's appears squarely in favor of the Baltimore camp w/ Kevin Gausman opposing Felix Jorge. The latter has made only one start for the Twins and while it was a win, he also allowed three runs and seven hits in just five innings while striking out only two batters. He's a spot starter, only pitching here because of an injury to Hector Santiago. Minnesota has been outscored by 1.3 rpg at home this year, which is downright shocking.

Gausman is off B2B very impressive outings, having not allowed a single run in 12 1/3 IP (only six hits). Yes, he has had his share of struggles at times this year. But it appears as if he's turning things around. Something that the Orioles have NOT been able to take advantage of this week is the return of ace reliever Zach Britton to the bullpen. His injury-induced absence was a major culprit in the team's overall decline in the last month or so. Had Bundy been able to turn over a lead last night, we would have seen Britton and I have no doubt he would have closed the game. As it stood, the Baltimore bullpen pitched four shutout innings anyway.  10* Baltimore

10* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5. It's been awhile since we've seen the situation that presents itself here in this battle of AL Central rivals. We have an "immediate revenge" situation as the two starting pitchers are facing off for a second straight time. Last Saturday saw Carlos Carrasco and Cleveland beat Jordan Zimmerman and Detroit w/ the former starter tossing seven strong innings where he allowed just one run on four hits. Obviously, the odds are not in Zimmerman's favor here in Cleveland, but history shows that in spots such as this it's best to take the pitcher who lost the previous matchup. Because of the price and the "added insurance" it provides, I'll be playing the Tigers on the Run Line. 

Carrasco has mostly been sharp of late as the Indians have won his L5 starts. But he's not been immune to a poor outing by any stretch of the imagination. Two starts ago, he picked up one of the more extraordinary no-decisions of the entire MLB season as the team rallied to beat Texas 15-9 after Carrasco had allowed eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings! Also, something to keep in mind is that Cleveland has been a huge money-loser at home this year as their 19-23 record has them down a MLB-worst 22.8 units. No other team in baseball is down more than 13.3 units in home games this year. Yes, I played the Tribe as big favorites last night, but that was against a terrible Padres team that had shockingly taken the first two games of the series.

Detroit comes off a 5-4 homestand where they alternated wins and losses throughout. That pattern has them "due" to lose here, but as big of underdogs as they are on the ML here, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them defy the odds. They are 5-4 against Cleveland this year, including 2-1 at Progressive Field. Zimmerman was a bit unlucky to have allowed four runs last Saturday as he only gave up five hits in 5 2/3 IP. I think he's in line for a quality start tonight. Remember Cleveland is w/o their manager, Terry Francona, right now. They are also just 3-7 as home favorites of -175 to -250 on the money line, which helps explain those massive losses at the betting window. The Tigers do no worse than a one run loss here. 10* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET)

6* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): For about a month now, the Yankees have been slumping. They've dropped 16 of their last 22 games and as a result now trail the rival Red Sox by 3.5 games in the A.L. East. However, they still sport a tremendous run differential (+103) that is fourth best in all of baseball. I believe that this weekend, tonight in particular, offers up a tremendous opportunity for them to "get back on track" going into the All-Star Break. They'll host a Milwaukee team that had to play a make-up game on Thursday (at Chicago) and is now in its third city in as many days. While yday's 11-2 victory over the Cubs has to have the Brew Crew feeling pretty good about itself right now (was the team's 4th straight victory), heading into an American League venue puts them at a severe disadvantage.

The Yankees had Thursday off, which is a nice advantage to have coming into this three-game set. It was a disappointing series earlier in the week, here in the Bronx against the Blue Jays, as the team wearing Pinstripes dropped two of three. Wednesday saw them rally back from a 5-0 deficit only to lose 7-6. All-Star reliever Dellin Betances has had a rough time of late, but I don't expect that to last. I also like tonight's starter, Jordan Montgomery, who checks in w/ a 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts. Not only that, but Montgomery is also riding a six-start unbeaten streak coming into Friday and since June 3rd, opponents are batting only .171 against him, including a miniscule .080 w/ RISP. I'd also like to point out that while the Yanks may be just 6-16 their L22 games, 12 of those losses have been by three runs or less. Here at Yankee Stadium, they are still outscoring the opposition by an impressive margin of 1.7 rpg. 

Milwaukee is your surprise leader in the NL Central, now 4.5 games ahead of the Cubs. But the current win streak of four games matches their longest of the season and tonight they send a struggling starter to the hill. That would be Junior Guerra, who in his L3 starts has a 9.64 ERA and 2.429 WHIP, obviously awful numbers. Guerra has also struggled all season outside of Miller Park, turning in a 6.19 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in three starts. He's failed to make it past four innings in B2B starts. The A.L. typically dominated Interleague Play and that's what I expect here. 6* NY Yankees

10* Run Line Baltimore (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Orioles +1.5. Baltimore and Minnesota are perhaps the American League's two most difficult teams to evaluate as we approach the All-Star Break. The O's 40-44 record doesn't sound all that bad, but when you consider they were playing .667 baseball through the first 33 games (22-11), clearly this is a team that appears to be in decline. Also, a -83 YTD run differential that is tied for the fourth worst in all of baseball paints an ugly portrait. But then there's the Twins, who have been outscored by 55 runs themselves, yet are somehow two games OVER .500! So while Baltimore's "market correction" has already taken hold, I anticipate the same to happen to Minnesota in the second half. Here, just to be safe, I'll take the "added insurance" that the RL provides. 

Baltimore certainly is not a good road team. Their record away from Camden Yards is 15-28. But, thankfully, Minnesota isn't a good home team. In fact, the Twins' 18-26 record at Target Field is currently the worst home mark of any team in baseball! To put that record in its proper perspective, note only four other teams are more than two games below .500 at home this season. Something to watch for in this series is offensive improvement from the road team. The Orioles just got swept in Milwaukee, scoring only three runs in three games, but that's a National League park where they were w/o the designated hitter.

Tonight's pitching matchup looks like a good one as it's Baltimore's best pitcher, Dylan Bundy, going up against Minnesota's second best pitcher, Jose Berrios. Berrios has been the one Twins' starter unaffected by the teams' woes at home, but lately he's also shown signs of regression w/ a 5.12 ERA and 1.345 WHIP his L3 turns overall. He gave up three home runs in his last outing, albeit on the road. Of course, so too did Bundy (allow 3 HR's his last start) and that was at home. However, there's been only one time all season where Bundy delivered consecutive non-quality outings. Another key is that the O's now have Zach Britton back in the bullpen. Hopefully, they'll be able to use him some tonight. Something I have yet to even mention - and this is arguably the key to the play - is that Baltimore has revenge here for a three-game sweep suffered at home back in late May. As any regular of mine will tell you, this is one of my favorite angles in handicapping MLB. I'll say the Orioles do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 10* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5).

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): I'm well-aware of the fact that the Indians' home record (18-23) leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, no team has lost more at the betting window in its home games (-23.8 units!) and it's not even close. Still, you'd expect the reigning AL Champs to at least be able to dominate a lowly National League team like San Diego here at Progressive Field. Instead, what has happened (so far) in this series is that Cleveland has lost 1-0 (as -315 favorites on the ML!) and 6-2 (were -245). This is the continuation of another disturbing trend for the Tribe, that being a 2-11 record in Interleague Play. Typically, we see the American League dominate these matchups. Not since '03 has the Senior Circuit produced a winning record in IL play! Because of the last two days' results, we are now able to get a better price on Cleveland and I'll call for them to avoid what would be a very embarrassing sweep.

San Diego has the worst run differential in all of baseball right now as opponents have outscored them by 115 runs over the course of the year. The next worst team (Philadelphia) has a run diff of -93 and only five teams are below -60 in all of MLB. Even w/ the two wins here at Progressive Field, they're still just 14-26 on the road and getting outscored by 1.5 runs per game. So this is not a good baseball team and one (price permitting) that you'll want to fade regularly in the second half. Now, tonight they do have a pitcher (Dinelson Lamet) who has a 3-0 TSR (Team Start Record) his L3 starts w/ an outstanding 0.684 WHIP! But, curiously, the Padres have also scored for Lamet during this time, totaling 20 runs in those three wins. Anyone that follows the Padres knows that kind of offensive production is atypical as - for the year - they rank dead last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP.

So, what should have been an easy sweep for the Indians has now turned into a situation where they're trying to avoid the same fate. Despite their rather middling record (44-39), the Tribe still has the 7th best run differential in all of MLB (+54). Their problem has been a lack of clutch hitting as they are third worst in all of baseball when it comes to OPS w/ two outs & RISP. Rotational depth probably isn't what it should be either, yet I'll put my faith in Josh Tomlin here despite a 7.79 ERA and 1.999 WHIP his L3 starts. One could make the argument that Tomlin is probably "due" for a quality outing here and he won't face a worse offensive ballclub all season. He can also lean on a bullpen that remains one of baseball's very best. 8* Cleveland

8* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners are looking to avoid a three-game sweep here. Kansas City, meanwhile, has climbed out of its rather massive early season hole and is now three games above .500. That's quite the achievement for a club that was eight games below the "Mendoza Line" on Memorial Day. Other than Boston, no other American League team has been hotter over the past week as KC has won three straight and five of six. But I see them failing to sweep here as not only has there been a key line move for this Wednesday matchup, but the home team will send out Ariel Miranda, who has pitched very well this season at Safeco Field. Good value on the M's. 

Miranda has a 2.56 ERA and 0.905 WHIP at home. Therefore, I think it's fair to say he's deserving of far better than a 4-4 team start record here. His last start (Friday) came on the road and he was equally sharp, tossing seven shutout innings of two-hit ball as Seattle rolled the Angels, 10-0. That lowered his WHIP to 0.750 his L3 starts. He's gone 7+ innings in all three starts. Here, he'll be facing a Royals lineup that is not only 26th in runs scored, but also 29th in on base percentage. Miranda has allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his past 10 starts overall. Seattle has lost six in a row at home after a 25-13 start to the season here. That losing streak can't continue, right?

Kansas City counters w/ Jason Vargas, the AL leader in wins (12) and ERA (2.22). They are 12-4 in Vargas' 16 starts so far, so it definitely "says something" that Seattle is still favored on the money line tonight. Maybe it's because Vargas isn't quite as effective on the road. Or it could have something to do w/ the fact his strikeout numbers aren't all that impressive. In his L3 starts, Vargas' KW ratio is a rather pedestrian 9-6, hardly indicative of any kind of dominant pitcher. Only twice in his past 10 starts has he registered more than 5 K's. Note that the Royals have not swept any road series of three or more games all season! 8* Seattle

10* Texas (8:05 ET): I'm hoping that the "third time is the charm" here as the Rangers look to avoid what would be yet another three-game sweep at the hands of the red-hot Red Sox. Taking teams that have revenge for a prior series sweep (of 3+ games) is one of my favorite handicapping angles in MLB and has treated me quite well this week. But after getting swept up in Boston back in May, the Rangers have fared no better against them here in Arlington, dropping the first two games of this series. While they were able to take Monday's opener into extra innings (eventually lost 7-5), yday's game was never close and they ended up losing 11-4. As poor an outcome as that was, it "lays the groundwork" for a bounce back today, not just because the revenge angle is still in play, but also b/c home teams typically bounce back after a bad loss like the one Texas took on Tuesday. 

In past analysis, I've talked about (at great length) the Rangers' lack of "luck" compared to last year. Right now, they have a better run differential (+13) for the season than LY's team that won 95 games. The major difference is the record in one-run games as 2016 saw them go a historically good 36-11 while this year, they are 4-11. I admit that getting blown out w/ Yu Darvish on the mound has to be disheartening, but I believe the pieces are still in place for a rebound tonight. They too will face a weaker starting pitcher tonight, that being Doug Fister, who is making just his third start of the year for Boston. Fister has been okay so far, but hardly dominant. He also has issued six walks in 11 IP. Remember that the Rangers are still 7th in MLB in runs scored.

Starting for Texas here will be Andrew Cashner. He took a bat to the forearm his last start (at Cleveland) and had to exit early, but X-rays came back negative and he's set to go tonight. One thing you'll notice when examining Cashner's season is that he's largely been "feast or famine." While he did not fare well against the Red Sox at Fenway Park (allowed five runs in 5 IP), I look for him to do better at home where his ERA is 3.10 this season. Also, tonight marks the 1st time all year that Cashner is off B2B non-quality starts. So, he's "due" for a quality effort here. There have been three times this year where he's turned in a quality start as a dog of +160 or higher on the ML. Texas is 4-1 this season after allowing 10+ runs and 7-4 off three straight losses. Surprisingly, Boston is just 24-24 this season when off a win. 10* Texas

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies returned home to Coors Field Monday somewhat w/ their "tails between their legs." They'd gone an ugly 1-8 on a nine-game road trip through the division and dropped 10 of 11 overall. But this homestand before the All-Star Break figured to signal a return to their early season success as they'd be hosting a pair of last place teams, Cincinnati and the White Sox. Sure enough, the first game went well as they beat the Reds 5-3 on Monday. But then came a bad 8-1 loss last night as the team failed to post B2B victories for what would have been the 1st time in over two weeks. Regardless, I expect they'll bounce back tonight in what could signal a strong close to the first half. The Reds are 13-26 on the road this year, getting outscored by 1.5 rpg.

We have two starting pitchers tonight that have been sharp of late. For Colorado, Jon Gray was the lone starter to get a win on the last road trip. His return from a two-plus-month stint could not have gone any better as he struck out 10 and allowed just two runs in six innings against Arizona. The team has now won all four of his starts in 2017, three of those coming as ML underdogs. But winning this one is perhaps the most important. With the two teams ahead of them (Dodgers & D'backs) currently playing each other, the Rockies can't afford to let this golden opportunity to make up ground in the division slip away. Something worth mentioning about last night's debacle is that they had just as many hits (10) as the Reds. Unfortunately, they were all singles. 

Scott Feldman goes for Cincy tonight and he's 3-0 w/ a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his L3 starts. He's made four quality starts in his L5 outings and has arguably been the Reds best pitcher in 2017. But on the road, he has an ERA of 4.74 and WHIP of 1.488 and Coors Field is obviously a difficult environment to pitch in. Also, I simply view him as being "due" for a bad outing. Feldman and the Reds also do not have history on their side here as they rarely have strung victories together over the last month. Their last win streak of 3+ games was nearly a month ago. Only three times this year have they won four or more straight games. They're a bad team and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Colorado's offense (6th in runs scored) explode here. 8* Colorado

8* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Tigers snapped the Giants' six-game win streak yday afternoon while getting a much-needed win themselves. The team from the Motor City is somewhat "in limbo" right now as they're still eight games below .500, but they've at least been respectable at home where they've gone 22-19 overall including 3-1 when priced at -175 or higher on the money line. They're 10-3 the L3 seasons as a ML home fave of -175 to -250. As for the Giants, recent six-game win streak aside, they have fallen on hard times here in 2017. They have the second worst record in all of baseball and the third worst run differential. Not only are they just 2-6 vs. the American League this season, but overall, they've been outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road. This is a good matchup for the host Tigers, who I'll back in this price range. 

Since returning home on 6.27, Detroit has alternated wins and losses over a seven-game span. That pattern continuing would obviously not be good for us, but thankfully I see the trend coming to an end here. Not just for all the reasons detailed above, but also they are simply the better team here, plus the AL typically has its way w/ the NL in Interleague Play. In the past 20 seasons, the NL has posted a winning record in IL play only FOUR times and the last time they did it was 2003! This year has been no different w/ an 88-71 record posted by the AL and that includes a terrible 2-10 mark by Cleveland. Take the Tribe out and things look even more impressive at 86-61! Detroit is only 3-5 vs. the Senior Circuit. The Giants are one of the lowest-scoring teams in all of baseball (28th in runs scored), so I'm not worried at all about them getting the DH here. Yesterday saw Buster Posey DH and he went 0 for 4 at the plate. 

It's not just the Giants' lack of hitting that should concern them. Opponents are batting .275 against them as well. That's the second highest opponents' batting average in all of MLB. Tonight's starter Ty Blach has certainly been a big offender w/ a 6.19 ERA and 1.937 WHIP his L3 turns. This will be his 1st time pitching in an AL park this year, but it should be noted that the one AL lineup he did face this year (at home), scored seven times against him in 5 2/3 innings and that was the Royals, who are also one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball. Detroit counters w/ Daniel Norris and while he's certainly no "Cy Young," he's shown glimpses of greatness. He should have little difficulty tonight facing a lineup that is 28th in OBP and last in slugging. 8* Detroit

10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers season of ill-fortune continued last night w/ an extra-inning loss to the Red Sox by a score of 7-5. As discussed in great detail yday, after having incredibly good fortune in 2016, things have basically gone the exact opposite way for Texas this season. Last year, they won 95 games despite a run differential of only +8 as they turned in a historically great 36-11 record in one-run games. This season, they are three games below .500 despite having outscored the opposition by 20 runs as they are 6-14 in one-run games and keep in mind that doesn't even include last night as they fell by two runs in an 11-inning affair. The Rangers are now 0-4 head to head w/ the Red Sox this year, but that only makes the revenge angle that much stronger here. 

Turns out that pushing Yu Darvish back a day in favor of Martin Perez was too much to overcome for the Rangers last night. Perez wound up allowing five runs in 5 2/3 innings and walked more batters (4) than he struck out (3). He put his team in an early hole, though they were able to pull off a rare rally at the expense of Boston closer Craig Kimbrell, who gave up a HR for only the second time all year. The rally could have been even more had Dustin Pedroia not made an outstanding play in the field. It should also be pointed out that three of the Red Sox runs scored last night were unearned thanks to Rangers' reliever Tony Barnette throwing a wild pitch.

The issues we had w/ Perez last night should not be present here w/ Darvish as the latter has most looked great in 2017. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but two of his last 16 starts. Given his 3.03 ERA and 1.084 WHIP, Darvish is deserving of far better than the current 8-9 team start record. The Rangers have actually lost the L3 times he has taken the mound despite him allowing just three runs and nine hits in his L13 IP (16-1 KW ratio). Darvish did NOT face Boston in the previous series between these teams, but in two home starts against them previously he has 26 strikeouts and a 1.72 ERA! I expect Darvish to outduel David Price here as Boston's starter has never fared all that well against Texas, turning in a 5.52 ERA in 13 career starts. Price also finds himself in the middle of some controversy for reportedly "making a scene" on a team flight by arguing w/ commentator Dennis Eckersley. In his four road starts this year, Price has a 5.32 ERA and 1.409 WHIP. Boston may be the hottest AL team right now (won five straight), but they won't have an answer for Darvish. 10* Texas

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the White Sox +1.5. Chicago was a fortunate winner Sunday as they rallied in the bottom of the eighth for a 6-5 win over Texas. It was their second rally in three days at the Rangers' expense and they've now won four of the last six games overall. While all four wins have been by one-run margins, here I feel safe in saying they'll be doing no worse than a one-run loss. This series w/ Oakland marks a revenge spot for the Pale Hose as last week saw them drop all three games at home to the A's. I feel that the rotation sets up a little better for them this go-around however, starting w/ Carlos Rodon tonight.

Rodon made his return to the rotation last week. His first start of the year did not go all that well due to control issues. Six walks contributed to him allowing three runs (all unearned) in 5 IP and the Sox lost 12-3 to the Yankees. But it should be noted that Rodon also only allowed two hits in his time out on the mound. Also, he was facing the Yankees. This is the A's, the consensus worst team in the American League, a notion backed up both by record and run differential. Not only does Oakland come into this series as losers of five in a row overall, but they've also dropped seven consecutive home games as well! This home losing streak doesn't surprise me in the least as the A's are being outscored here by more than one-half run per game despite a 22-19 record. 

Starting opposite Rodon will be Jarrell Cotton, who shut the White Sox out (for five innings) his last time out. That start was cut short due to a blister on his right thumb, which in turn caused him to miss his last turn in the rotation. So he's working on more than 10 days rest here, which isn't always a good thing. More over, this is the first time in his career that Cotton has won B2B starts. Given that and the fact the A's swept the White Sox last time around, I'd say that Cotton and Oakland are almost "due" to lose here. It certainly doesn't help Cotton's cause that this start comes at home where he has a 7.09 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in six starts. Something tells me that the White Sox hitters will be better prepared for him this go-around and it should also be pointed out that Cotton had only three strikeouts the last time. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

8* Run Line Chi White Sox (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the White Sox +1.5. Chicago was a fortunate winner Sunday as they rallied in the bottom of the eighth for a 6-5 win over Texas. It was their second rally in three days at the Rangers' expense and they've now won four of the last six games overall. While all four wins have been by one-run margins, here I feel safe in saying they'll be doing no worse than a one-run loss. This series w/ Oakland marks a revenge spot for the Pale Hose as last week saw them drop all three games at home to the A's. I feel that the rotation sets up a little better for them this go-around however, starting w/ Carlos Rodon tonight.

Rodon made his return to the rotation last week. His first start of the year did not go all that well due to control issues. Six walks contributed to him allowing three runs (all unearned) in 5 IP and the Sox lost 12-3 to the Yankees. But it should be noted that Rodon also only allowed two hits in his time out on the mound. Also, he was facing the Yankees. This is the A's, the consensus worst team in the American League, a notion backed up both by record and run differential. Not only does Oakland come into this series as losers of five in a row overall, but they've also dropped seven consecutive home games as well! This home losing streak doesn't surprise me in the least as the A's are being outscored here by more than one-half run per game despite a 22-19 record. 

Starting opposite Rodon will be Jarrell Cotton, who shut the White Sox out (for five innings) his last time out. That start was cut short due to a blister on his right thumb, which in turn caused him to miss his last turn in the rotation. So he's working on more than 10 days rest here, which isn't always a good thing. More over, this is the first time in his career that Cotton has won B2B starts. Given that and the fact the A's swept the White Sox last time around, I'd say that Cotton and Oakland are almost "due" to lose here. It certainly doesn't help Cotton's cause that this start comes at home where he has a 7.09 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in six starts. Something tells me that the White Sox hitters will be better prepared for him this go-around and it should also be pointed out that Cotton had only three strikeouts the last time. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5)

10* Texas (8:05 ET): There's a real sense of irony w/ this year's Rangers, who have outscored opponents by 22 runs despite being two games over .500. Last year's 95-win team (that earned homefield advantage in the AL Playoffs) only outscored its opponents by a measley EIGHT runs over the course of the season! The key to 2016 was a historically great 36-11 record in one-run games. This year, that record has dipped all the way down to 6-14, which is the WORST such percentage in all of baseball! Funny how that works out. This narrative figures to continue throughout the campaign as the Rangers clearly aren't going to win as many games as LY despite the fact they'll probably outscore opponents by a far greater margin.

Here, I believe the Rangers are a great play as they return home following a 4-6 road trip. They missed out on a chance to finish .500 on the trip by losing 6-5 to the White Sox, who committed FOUR errors! It was a brutal (one-run!) loss as reliever Joe Leclerc served up a two-run HR in the bottom of the eighth. Even more frustrating is the fact they outhit the White Sox, 9-5. Offense was not really a problem for the Rangers in Chicago as they totaled 22 runs in the three-game series. The bullpen was generally terrible, however, blowing late leads in both losses. That puts an onus on tonight's starter Martin Perez, who is coming off a brief stint on the DL. Originally, this was supposed to be Yu Darvish's turn in the rotation. But while going from Darvish to Perez is rightfully considered a "downgrade," note Perez did win his two starts previous to going on the DL. 

Texas is 22-17 at home this year and I believe this is a good spot to fade Boston, who is coming off a 15-1 win Sunday and sweep of the Blue Jays. Overall, it's been four straight wins for the Red Sox (who now lead the AL East by three games), but the Rangers have revenge here for a prior three-game sweep suffered at Fenway Park (back in May). Boston is just 22-21 on the road this season as opposed to 25-14 at home. Returning to the concept of regression to the mean, how about last year's AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello? I don't think anybody felt he would duplicate LY's 22-4 campaign, but the regression has taken hold far more severely than even I or the most pessimisstic person could have anticipated. Porcello is now 1-5 over his L7 starts w/ a 6.07 ERA and for the year, he has a 5.06 ERA and 1.514 WHIP. Last time out, he became the first pitcher in all of MLB to reach double digit losses this season (4-10 in 17 starts). While he did beat Texas back on 5.23, he did so in spite of allowing five runs and 11 hits. With the ESPN cameras present, I expect an inspired effort from the home team here. 10* Texas

8* Run Line Miami (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Marlins +1.5. For the second week in a row, St. Louis finds itself starting a new week in the same spot, that being coming off the Sunday Night Game. But whereas they were coming off a win last week (8-4 over Pittsburgh, thus avoiding a sweep), here, they are off a 7-2 loss to Washington that denied them a chance at a sweep. Yes, same as last week, the Redbirds get to stay home here. But I'll be playing against them for the same reason I was ON them last Monday. The reason being, revenge, as in they had it last Monday hosting Cincinnati. Now Miami has it for a prior three-game sweep that took place back in early May. Marlins do no worse than a one-run loss here. 

Miami had lost four in a row going into yday, but avoided a sweep in Milwaukee w/ a 10-3 win. They pounded out 17 hits, their most in a game in nearly a month, and also got a strong start from Dan Straily. I'll be hoping for a similar complete performance tonight. As far as the bats go, I like their chances against Cards' starter Adam Wainwright, who has begun to regress big time. Wainwright still has a 7.20 ERA his L3 starts even after B2B quality efforts. That should tell you how bad the other one was and, in fact, he's twice allowed NINE runs over the course of his previous five starts. Both times were on the road, but a 1.301 WHIP at Busch Stadium tells me that he's a little bit fortunate to have a 5-1 record in his eight starts here (5-3 TSR). Speaking of fortunate, Wainwright managed to come away w/ a win over the Marlins (back on May 9th) despite allowing four runs in 5 1/3 innings. So Miami has gotten to him before.

As for the pitching side of the ledger, the Marlins will turn to Jeff Locke, who is still winless after six turns in the rotation. All were in June, but I believe it's critical to note that Locke rarely got any run support as five of the six starts saw his offense "back him up" w/ two or fewer runs. It's tough to win games that way. Outside of two blowout losses to the Cubs, however, Locke has pitched relatively well. Two of the losses have been by one run, a result which would do us just fine tonight. The Cardinals have done little in the way of hitting the past two games, totaling only four runs on nine hits w/ 25 strikeouts. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5)

10* Washington (8:05 ET): The Nats have lost the first two of this three-game set, but thankfully have Max Scherzer to fall back on Sunday night. Scherzer is deserving of far better than a 10-6 team start record as his ERA is 2.06 and his WHIP is 0.783. Both of those numbers are MLB bests and somehow, it appears as if Scherzer is only getting stronger as the year progresses. He has a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP over his last three starts, although his last one marked the first time in over a month (seven starts) that he did not strikeout at least 10 batters. Scherzer does have a worthy adversary Sunday night in the form of Carlos Martinez, but he's simply the better pitcher here and provided the Nats' offense can wake up, I see them avoiding the sweep.

Even after losing 2-1 last night, Washington is still a very impressive 33-14 in night games this season. Losing skids like their current one (three games) simply don't come around often. There have been two times this year when they've lost four straight. But that's it. Of course, Scherzer is the definition of a "stopper" being that he's now allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of his past seven starts. Incredibly, he has allowed more than three earned runs just ONE time all season. That came back in late April. June saw him allow just two home runs, not to mention only 14 hits overall! He allowed eight runs total (actually unlucky given all the other numbers!) in 36 1/3 IP (five starts) and had a 51-6 KW ratio. A hit batsman, then a triple accounted for the lone run allowed his last time out. After that, he allowed only one more runner to reach base. The only reason he pitched only six innings is because the Nats had a sizable lead. 

St. Louis may have won four straight, but they're still two games below .500. They've done a good job keeping Washington's offense in check (so far) in the series, holding them to just a pair of runs, one of which was scored in the ninth yday (when up 2-0). But the Cards were actually outhit Saturday (6-4), so their own lineup isn't exactly hitting the cover off the ball and that figures to continue here facing Scherzer, who has allowed just four runs in 18 IP @ Busch Stadium. Now, Carlos Martinez certainly isn't bad and truthfully, that's putting things mildly. But he just isn't as good as Scherzer. Washington also has the better offense here as they average 5.5 runs per game and have hit 121 home runs. 10* Washington

8* Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): It's become readily apparent that this year's Cubs are nowhere near as dominant as the team that "ended the curse" last year (1st World Series win since 1908!). Here in Cincinnati, they've dropped the first two of a three-game set (I had the Reds Friday). That, right there, could be considered "Exhibit A" as to the difference between the Cubs this year and last. In 2016, they were 15-4 head to head w/ their overmatched NL Central rival and 28-10 against them since the start of the 2015 season. "Exhibit B" as to the Cubs' struggles this year would be the performance of Jake Arrieta, whose TSR (Team Start Record) is now just 8-8. He has a 4.67 ERA and 1.365 WHIP, which would have been considered unfathomable just a season ago. Despite all that I've mentioned here though, I still feel the Cubs have enough to avoid the sweep Sunday!

The Reds do have a winning record at home and seem better than last year's club, which had the worst overall record in the National League. Yet, despite what the rather minimal 4.5 game gap in the standings says, these two teams are still "miles apart" in terms of talent, at least from where I sit. Injuries have been a part of the problem for the Cubbies so far, but thankfully both Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist are now back in the lineup. It should be pointed out that they led 3-0 yday. Admittedly, a three-run third is the ONLY inning in which they've scored in this series, but don't you think the offense is likely to turn things around against Tim Adelman, who has a 5.62 ERA and 1.750 WHIP his L3 starts? Adelman somehow got away w/ allowing five runs in five innings his last time out, including three home runs. I say "got away" b/c the Reds still somehow won that game, 8-6 over Milwaukee. But they'd also lost the last three times he went to the mound.

Arrieta's last start made headlines for all the wrong reasons as the Nationals stole SEVEN bases against him, prompting criticism from (now former!) teammate Miguel Montero. I anticipate him being highly motivated today. He's 6-2 in eight career starts vs. the Reds including a no-hitter last year. The Cubs have not been swept here in Cincy since '96 and despite their sub-.500 record remain the class of the division. 8* Chi Cubs

8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Mariners came in and embarrassed the Angels last night, taking the series opener 10-0. But before we go and proclaim the home team "dead and buried" in this series, let's not be quick to forget that the M's had lost four in a row - all at home - including two to the horrid Phillies. While they've now been outscored 21-3 in the past two meetings (includes 11-3 loss back on May 4th), the Halos actually still sport a winning record against Seattle this year (4-3) and they also remain slightly ahead of them (by one-half game!) in the AL West standings. A home team that gets embarrassed in the fashion that LA was last night is obviously going to be highly motivated to exact revenge and that's what I'm counting on here. 

Prior to his last time out, Angels starter Ricky Nolasco had lost seven consecutive decisions and his TSR (team start record) in his L10 starts was 0-10. Certainly, no one anticipated that streak to end Monday when he faced the Dodgers as a massive +205 dog on the ML. But it did! Nolasco threw 6+ scoreless innings of five-hit ball in what was his best outing of 2017 to date. While it was not an overall good month of June, Nolasco has had his share of quality outings this year, one of them coming here at home vs. Seattle back on 4.8 when he allowed just two runs and four hits in six innings of work. Note that the # of runs Seattle scored yday equaled the number of total runs scored their previous four games. This team is just 15-24 on the road this season, getting outscored by nearly a full run per game. That's AFTER factoring in last night's result. 

Symbolic of the Mariners' struggles away from home is the pitching of tonight's starter Sam Gaviglio. While the 27-year old rookie has posted a 2.00 ERA in five starts at Safeco Field, his road ERA is just 5.51. I think a 6-2 team start record for Gaviglio is a tad bit misleading as his KW ratio his L2 starts is a poor 4-7. He has not faced the Angels this season. Though last night was certanly an undesirable result, let's also recall that other recent poor offensive nights can be explained by a pretty brutal scheduling stretch. The Angels just had to play the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers before this series and the fact they went 6-4 against three of the best teams in all of baseball is to be commended. Gaviglio has yet to make it past the sixth inning in any start in his rookie season and that means the respective bullpens have to come into play, an area where the Angels have a slight advantage. (Seattle's bullpen ERA/WHIP on the road is 4.91/1.370). 8* LA Angels

10* Under Rays/Orioles (4:05 ET): Here's something I wrote in yday's analysis on the Rays-Orioles series opener. "This team {Orioles} is being "propped up" by an extremely fortunate 9-1 record in extra inning games this year, something that simply won't be sustained. I'm on the road team, who is the better team, in this one." Not to "pat myself on the back," but that call on the Rays turned out to be pretty spot on as they won an extra-inning game, 6-4, after tying things up in the top of the ninth. Now, at the same time, it was almost a BRUTAL break for Under bettors, who were sitting on a 3-2 game entering the ninth inning. It could have been the FIFTH consecutive time these AL East rivals conspired to go Over against one another, but thanks to a high O/U line (same as today), the Over trend came to a halt. I look for this game to have even less scoring. Take the Under.

A big reason why tonight's O/U line is again so high is that neither starting pitcher is in fine form. Rays starter Jake Odorizzi lost to the O's his last time out, giving up 2 HR's and four runs total in 5 1/3 IP. It was his fifth straight start giving up at least 3 ER. But there have been two starts in that stretch where he's been undone by unearned runs. In between starts here, Odorizzi has reportedly been working on his mechanics and I trust skipper Kevin Cash that we should be getting a much better start here today. The Rays have gone Under now in four consecutive contests overall and while the offense "woke up" late last night, you still have to consider that before the game-winning HR by Steven Souza, the team had scored just nine runs total in their last 36 innings.

While Baltimore scored four times last night, it wasn't nearly enough and one of those runs came in a fruitless rally attempt in the bottom of the 10th. They finished w/ only five hits for the game, so there was some definite "cluster luck" involved w/ them scoring four times in the game. Two of their runs came on solo homers, the other two were a result of runners getting into scoring position due to errors made by the Rays. Of course, TB had some of its own fortunate scoring as in the top of the ninth, it was a walk, balk, then a wild pitch that led to them tying the game. The Orioles actually got a quality start from Chris Tillman last night, but they have a better pitcher on the mound today in the form of Dylan Bundy, who has been the most reliable member of the rotation so far this season. Bundy allowed just three runs on five hits when he faced TB last weekend, the 14th time (in 16 tries) that the right-hander has posted a quality start this year. Furthermore, other than allowing 4 HR's, Bundy has had the Rays' number in '17, winning both starts due to allowing only five runs and nine hits total in 13 1/3 IP. 10* Under Rays/Orioles

8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5. With all new series set to begin Friday in MLB, we can again begin to explore the "revenge option," which has treated us so well, not just throughout the year, but this week especially. It's really simple. You just look for teams that have revenge for a prior series sweep of at least three games. Here, the Reds happen to owe the Cubs quite a bit of payback, but in particular for a three-game sweep that occurred at Wrigley back in mid-May. Since the resurrection of the Cubs' franchise under GM Theo Epstein/Manager Joe Maddon began to hold, they have completely dominated the Reds, going 33-11 against them since the start of the 2015 season, including 20-5 since the start of last year and 5-1 here in '17. But this has hardly been the same dominant Cubs team we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. Therefore, I feel confident in saying the Reds will do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Cincy had some "momentum" (hate that word!) going into yday as they'd beaten the first place Brewers back to back games. It was their first time winning B2B games since a sweep of the Cardinals back on June 5th-8th, believe it or not. Since then, the team has proceeded to go just 5-14 its L19 games, but at least they're at home here where their record is 21-19, resulting in a net gain of 6.9 units at the betting window. Last year, the Reds were the biggest money-loser in all of baseball, so it makes sense that they've been a better return on investment this year (progression to the mean!), even if it's only at home. Coming off B2B quality outings, Scott Feldman gets the start today. His last time starting at Great American Ballpark saw him toss seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball. 

Yes, the Reds did lose 11-3 yesterday to Milwaukee, costing them a sweep. But I don't think even the most pessimisstic Cubs prognosticator could have predicted the reigning World Series Champs would be entering the final day of June just one game over .500 and only 6.5 games ahead of the Reds. The Cubs are actually fortunate to be above the Mendoza Line entering tonight as they needed a three-run rally to beat the Nationals last night. They still have a losing road record (18-23) for the season, however, not to mention 28th in net units in all of MLB (-16.3). The starting rotation is nowhere near as strong this year as it was last and that's evident by the likes of Mike Montgomery getting regular work. Granted, Montgomery certainly hasn't pitched poorly by any means (1.71 ERA in four starts!). But the team has actually found a way to lose three of those four starts and that's against a pretty weak slate of opponents. The Cubs are among the MLB leaders in # of one-run games played w/ 24. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)

10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): Last weekend in Tampa, the Orioles took two of three from the Rays, which is surprising not only b/c they were pretty sizable underdogs on the ML for all three games, but also due to the O's rather dramatic home vs. road splits this season. While they are coming off a surprising 4-2 road trip overall (also took two of three from Toronto), Baltimore is still only 14-24 on the road this year as opposed to 25-15 at Camden Yards. So, you might now be set to conclude that the O's are in good shape this weekend due to getting the Rays in their home ballpark. But let's not be fooled by that home record, okay? Incredibly, the O's have been outscored here at Camden Yards, contributing to an overall -65 run differential that's second worst in the American League and fifth worst in all of baseball. This team is being "propped up" by an extremely fortunate 9-1 record in extra inning games this year, something that simply won't be sustained. I'm on the road team, who is the better team, in this one. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again - "what a difference a year makes for Chris Tillman." The Baltimore starter ranked third in all of baseball in net units earned in 2016, but his ERA and WHIP were not indicative of that kind of success, so it's no surprise to have seen him fall pretty hard this serason. But the fall from grace has been even uglier than expected as he comes into tonight sporting atrocious numbers, such as an 8.39 ERA and 2.182 WHIP for the season. Believe it or not, he's actually been even worse lately, having allowed five or more runs in six consecutive starts. Shockingly, the O's have won the last two (despite Tillman not lasting longer than 4 1/3 IP either time!), but that's clearly not a sustainable blueprint for victory. Note that there is a chance Tillman may be scratched here as his wife is expecting the couple's first child. If that's the case, Dylan Bundy will start in Tillman's place. If that happens, this play will still stand.

Part of the reason the play would still stand is that TB will go w/ Jacob Faria, who is 4 for 4 in terms of quality starts so far this season. If it's Bundy going, then Faria would have "immediate revenge" as those two faced off last Saturday w/ the Orioles winning a misleading 8-3 final. Faria had seven strikeouts against just one walk, but was eventually doomed by the Rays' bullpen. Previously, Faria had allowed just 3 total ER in his first three starts (19 2/3 IP). If it's Tillman and not Bundy, obviously that's okay as it's a weaker opposing starting pitcher. Bottom line is that TB is the better team here w/ the pitching edge. They are a perfect 3-0 this season following a shutout loss (lost 4-0 last night at Pittsburgh) and the offense should pick things up this weekend after having to play in a NL park (no DH!) the last series. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Over Dodgers/Angels (10:05 ET): The first three games of this series have all stayed Under the total, including the teams exchanging shutout victories at Chavez Ravine Monday and Tuesday. It was the Angels winning another low-scoring affair last night (3-2), but let us not forget that this is a NL team (Dodgers) playing in an AL park (DH play) and said Senior Circuit club has little difficulty scoring to begin win (Dodgers average 4.6 rpg). Yes, Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for Dodger Blue this evening, which is why tonight's O/U line figures to close as the lowest for the four games this week. But, remember, because Kershaw is pitching, there's a good chance we'll have to play the full nine innings here (strong likelihood road team is leading entering the ninth) and often times, that can be the difference between a game staying Under or going Over. Take the Over.

Certainly, the Dodgers are in the discussion for best overall team in the league. They've outscored the opposition by 137 runs so far (#1 in MLB) and are 52-28, which is the best record in the American League. Despite dropping two of the first three games to the Angels, they've still won 17 of 20 overall and not dropped B2B games a single time during that span. They've also won the last TEN starts made by Kershaw! Typically, Kershaw has been fantastic during this stretch, but he is only two starts removed from allowing a career-worst four home runs to the Mets. Also remember that he gets to pitch in the #1 run suppression ballpark in MLB, Dodger Stadium. The only time Kershaw has had to start in an AL park this year was at Cleveland on June 13th and that game easily went Over as Kershaw matched a season-low w/ only 4 K's. 

For Angels' starter JC Ramirez, things have generally been "feast or famine." Last time pitching here at home, he was tagged for five runs in just three innings and he also walked four batters in that game. Three of his previous five starts have seen him allow at least four runs in five innings or fewer. He's alternated "good and bad" starts here in June, so considering he's off one of the "good" ones, it seems logical to conclude he might very well be in store for another "bad" one. Both teams' games average 8.5 runs for the season, so there is value here. 10* Over Dodgers/Angels

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): Of the four revenge minded teams I took yday (Cin, Tex, Oak, SD), the Padres were the lone one that was unable to exact. No matter; I'll just come back and "double down" on them today. While they certainly profile as one of the worst teams in all of baseball, a home win over a team like the Braves is not something that should be difficult to achieve. Granted, last night, they were shut out by a rookie (Sean Newcomb). But they also collected nearly as many hits as did the Braves (7 vs. 8) and were it not for some very disputable calls from the umps, the final score could have turned out much differently. Newcomb certainly appeared to benefit from home plate umpire Lance Barrett's generous strike zone and what looked like a 1st inning HR by Wil Myers was turned into a ground-rule double. 

Lost in the Padres' loss Tuesday was another strong outing from Jhoulys Chacin, who for the third time in four starts went at least seven innings and retired the final 10 batters he saw. Fortunately, San Diego should again be able to lean on its starter tonight. That would be Luis Perdomo, who is holding opposing hitters to a .197 average w/ RISP this season. His last three starts, most notably the last one, have all been lights out. While he did walk five batters last Friday here at home vs. Detroit, he didn't allow a single run in six innings of work and also allowed just two hits. He's gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or fewer four of his last five starts.

Meanwhile, Atlanta is left to turn to 44-year old Bartolo Colon, who is nearing the end of the line (if he hasn't reached it already!). One would have to think that if Coloon doesn't pitch well here, it might be all over for him. In 59 IP this season, opponents are batting .332 against him w/ 11 home runs. That's not good. Nor is the fact that he's allowed six or more runs in 5 of his 12 starts this season. Overall, he has a 7.78 ERA and 1.712 WHIP. This will be his first time pitching since 6.5 (when he allowed 8 runs in just 3 2/3 IP) as he was just activated off the 10-day DL (oblique). But while that stint may have allowed his oblique to heal, it probably takes more than 10 days to fix his awful pitching! The Braves are 0-2 off a shutout victory this season. This is a rare chance to unload on the Padres. 10* San Diego.

10* NY Yankees (8:10 ET): The first two games of this four-game set have seen the teams exchange one-run victories. Last night saw the Yankees again fail to win B2B games for what would have been the 1st time in over two weeks. They lost (4-3) in walk-off fashion as their typically outstanding bullpen suffered a rare meltdown. After taking the lead w/ a three-run eighth, the Yanks allowed three runs themselves over the final two frames, two of those coming in the bottom of the ninth. An issue was that Aroldis Chapman was unavailable and hence Dellin Betances had to come on instead. It was only Betances' second blown save of the season. Despite what we've seen in this series, I remain a believer in the Yanks' pen and overall they are a much better team than the White Sox. I'm on the road team here.

Last night's loss dropped the team wearing pinstripes one full game behind the rival Red Sox in the American League East. This despite the Yankees owning the vastly superior run differential (+95 vs. +40). In fact, only three teams (Houston, Dodgers, Arizona) throughout baseball have outscored their opponents by a wider margin this season than have the Yanks. A West Coast swing is what begat the current slide as the team is now just 3-10 its L13 games overall. But I view this as merely a "speedbump" rather than a signal of some long-term trend. On the other hand, despite their somewhat respectable -4 run differential, the White Sox are still 10 games below .500. Given that this was expected to a rebuilding year on the South Side of the Windy City, I do NOT expect the White Sox to continue to be competitive moving forward as their surprising pitching staff is due to fall off.

Tonight will mark the 2017 debut of Carlos Rodon for the White Sox. Given what the starting rotation has pulled off so far this season, I can see how the team might be feeling optimistic w/ Rodon's return. But beware of a starter in his return from a long stint on the DL, something we saw w/ Cole Hamels of Texas Monday night. Also, Rodon's career resume against the Yankees isn't good as he has a 9.64 ERA in three previous starts. The Yankees counter w/ Masahiro Tanaka, who may be having a bit of a "down year," but he also turned in eight scoreless innings his last time out. It was the fifth time in 15 starts that he allowed 1 or 0 ER. Tanaka has NEVER lost to Chicago, going 3-0 all-time. I remain unconcerned w/ the "bullpen issues" we've seen from the Yanks in the first two games. 10* New York

8* San Diego (10:10 ET): Rarely will you get an endorsement of the Padres from me, but here they have revenge for a four-game sweep suffered in Atlanta back in April. They also had won three in a row before losing to the Tigers Sunday. The Braves are the rare opponent, that on paper, San Diego should beat (hence the money line here). That this will be just the 17th time that SD has been favored on the ML this year is certainly telling. They have been a .500 team here at Petco Park and the starting pitching matchup actually looks to be in their favor for Tuesday's opener. Atlanta had won four straight and seven of eight before getting shut out Sunday, so they're due to slow down.

The Braves have certainly had a chance to get acquainted w/ their brand new stadium here in June. This series will be just their third on the road all month and second in the last three weeks. Their L10 games were all at home, so hence the minor turnaround. But let's see how they now perform out on the road. My guess is "not that well" and tonight's opener actually marks the first road start for Sean Newcomb at the big league level. Therefore, take his 1.96 ERA and 1.037 WHIP w/ a grain of salt. Troubling is that Newcomb was able to turn in those peformances, but the team still lost two of his first three road starts. I don't see him continuing this early prowess.

The Padres will counter w/ Jhoulys Chacin, who has turned in three consecutive quality starts himself (2.70 ERA and 0.950 WHIP) and has a fantastic 0.883 WHIP for the season here at Petco Park (seven starts). Given that WHIP, I'd say he's owed a better team start record than 4-3. Opponents are batting just .161 against him at home. His last start at home, the only runs he gave up in seven innings came on a pair of solo home runs. Last time out, he allowed just two runs and five hits again, this time over six innings. That was in Wrigley though. So in Chacin's last three starts, he's allowed only 13 hits total (20 IP). One final thing to note is that Atlanta is just 5-24 its L29 games vs. the NL West. 8* San Diego

8* Run Line Oakland (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the A's +1.5. As is the case w/ the Reds elsewhere in this package, I don't have a ton of positive things to say about the A's right now. But like Cincinnati, they have revenge for a prior sweep here. They are now just 1-8 head to head vs. the division rival Astros, not too surprising considering the massive gap between the two in the standings. But last week, Oakland suffered the rare four-game sweep at home. They weren't all that competitive either. But not only does the team have revenge here, so does starting pitching Sean Manaea (one of their best) against Michael Fiers as these two opposed each other in the third of the four games last week. It would not surprise me in the least to see the A's pull off a massive upset here, but just to be "safe," I'll take them on the run line. 

One positive thing we can say about the A's is their weekend performance. After getting swept at home by the Astros, they hit the road and took all three games from the White Sox. Now, there's obviously a big difference between facing one of the American League's best and one of its worst. But the A's were pretty dominant in the Windy City over the weekend, outscoring the White Sox 18-5. That sets them up pretty well here. Yes, they had previously struggled - badly - on the road all year. But, curiously, Houston has not played worse at home than they have on the road! While their 29-9 road record is MLB's best, they're "only" 23-16 here at Minute Maid Park, including 9-10 their L19 games. They've only won two of their previous six home series. A major reason for this is they seem to get on base w/ far less frequency. Their OBP drops .048 at home and as a result they've scored 78 fewer runs here.

That all sounds promising for Manaea, who pitched well against Houston his last time out. He allowed only three runs and seven hits in 6 IP last Wednesday w/ eight strikeouts. He's working on ample rest here and has a 2.23 ERA in six career starts vs. the Astros. Manaea's 0.990 WHIP on the road (six starts) this year is also encouraging. Yes, Fiers has been red hot for Houston. But can he keep it up? Entering June, his numbers weren't that great. Eventually, the Athletics HAVE to beat the Astros and looking at the series as a whole, tonight looks like the best opportunity. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): This will the third city in three days for the Reds after playing a make-up game yday in St. Louis. But at least they're back at home where they've posted a winning record (19-18) this season. I did play against them yday and was rewarded for doing so w/ an easy 8-2 win by the Cardinals. But that was a situation that wasn't exactly ideal for St. Louis either as they had a very short turnaround after playing the Sunday night game (yday was a day game). The main reason I was on the Redbirds there was that they had revenge for a prior four-game sweep at the hands of the Reds (here at Great American Ballpark). Now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" here as it is the Reds looking to exact revenge for a three-game sweep suffered in Milwaukee back in April.

The Brewers come into Tuesday still leading the NL Central by one game over the Cubs. But I don't think that anybody, myself included, feels that will hold. If anything, the Brew Crew have been able to take advantage of a weak division as the most games they've been above .500 this year is seven and that was back on May 19th. They are 7-1 head to head vs. the last place Reds, but note they lost money against this division rival each of the previous two seasons. The Brew Crew are simply a mediocre ballclub disguised as a first place one as is evident by the fact they were nearly just swept in Atlanta over the weekend. Starting tonight for them will be Junior Guerra whose 23-22 KW ratio over his L6 starts is worrisome. He has a 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. 

The Reds have been in a bad way for several weeks now, dropping 14 of their last 16. But I do think that, at least in the short-term, they're due to bounce back a bit. Tim Adelman is the starter tonight and I expect him to outpitch Guerra. Believe it or not, but Adelman has allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his 13 starts this season including six straight! So it's very deceiving that his team start record in those L6 starts is just 2-4. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 3.4 rpg its last seven contests, so it's a lineup Adelman should be able to handle. As I played against them yesterday, I obviously don't have a ton of positive things to say about the Reds right now, but the revenge angle remains one of my favorites and - like last night's play on the Giants over the Rockies - it's certainly telling that the Reds are ML favorites here. 8* Cincinnati.

8* Run Line Texas (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the +1.5 w/ the Rangers. What happened? Last night's play on Texas looked like a surefire winner as they jumped out to a 7-1 lead after two and 9-2 lead entering the bottom of the fourth. However, starting in the bottom of the fifth, the Indians exploded, scoring four, five and three runs over the next three innings. The end result was a 15-9 win by the home team and not only did the Rangers fail to cash on the money line, even the RL was not a winner. It sure seemed as if Cole Hamels ran out of gas early as he allowed seven runs, four of them coming in the fifth. It was Hamels' return from a two-month stint on the DL and given his offense scored nine times for him, it was certainly a most disappointing result. But I'll come back w/ Texas tonight as they still have revenge against Cleveland for a previous three-game sweep. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here.

Cleveland had been swept over the weekend by Minnesota and entered Monday w/ a 15-20 record at home, which is actually second worst in the entire American League (ahead of only Minnesota). Obviously, there will be a perception of last night being a "breakthrough," but I'd still be concerned that the team fell behind so big w/ one of its better pitchers on the mound. Certainly, the offense was due to pick it up after going 1 for 23 w/ RISP in the Twins' series. But nights like last night don't happen very often. True to the overall team form, tonight's starter Mike Clevinger has an 0-3 TSR at Progressive Field this season w/ a 5.62 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. This will be his first time starting here in awhile as his L3 turns have all been on the road. He didn't last more than five innings in any of them, which is another problem.

The Rangers will give the baseball to Tyson Ross, who isn't exactly Cy Young himself. He's off a bad start against Toronto last week in just his 2nd outing of 2017. But he's had Cleveland's number somewhat through the years, turning in a 1.77 ERA in four appearances against them, three of those being starts. Ross can also probably expect ample run support here given that the Rangers' offense comes into tonight averaging 6.7 rpg its last seven contests. While "only" .500, Texas has outscored its opponents by 23 runs this year. Cleveland may again be w/o manager Terry Francona (sick) here and that should have some effect, right? 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

10* Under Rays/Pirates (7:05 ET): We have an AL team visiting a NL park, so right there, the automatic lean is to the Under due to the loss of the DH. Throw in the fact that the Rays have been scoring far more than per usual lately, my feeling is that much stronger. They come into Pittsburgh off six straight Overs, having either allowed or scored six runs in all of those games. But we're playing w/ a whole different set of rules here as the pitcher will come up to bat the next three games and it's not like the Pirates have done a ton of scoring here at PNC Park this season either (3.8 rpg) and overall they're batting just .231 the last seven days. For the year, they are 25th in MLB in runs scored. TB, surprisingly, is one of the top Over teams in baseball, but the number and situation here dictate a play in the other direction. Take the Under.

Alex Cobb will toe the rubber for the Rays Tuesday and he's in fine form right now. Seven of his last ten starts have been quality, including each of the last three where he has produced a 2.29 ERA. The fact that the Over is 7-2 in his nine road starts is somewhat misleading and his numbers away from home remain skewed due to one really poor showing in Seattle last month. Note that Cobb has pitched in just one NL park previously this season and not coincidentally it was his best outing of the year as he threw six shutout innings (at Miami). The Rays' bullpen, specifically closer Alex Colome, comes off a poor performance over the weekend in Baltimore, but I expect that group to improve.

Pittsburgh counters w/ Trevor Williams, who has a tremendous disparity between ERA (5.22) and WHIP (1.064) here at home, which is usually a sign that a pitcher is due for better results. He was sharp last week in Milwaukee, going six innings while allowing just three runs on six hits. He also struck out a season-high seven batters. Prior to allowing eight runs in Sunday night's loss to St. Louis, the Bucs had given up four runs or fewer in six straight games. While they've had bullpen issues of their own this season, moving Felipe Rivero into the closer role has certainly alleviated some of that. He's 3 for 3 in save opportunities so far, sixth in MLB in holds (14) & has a 0.70 WHIP. 10* Under Rays/Pirates

10* San Francisco (10:05 ET): I don't think that there's been a more one-sided division rivalry this year (in terms of head to head results) than Colorado-San Francisco. The surprising Rockies are 10-1 H2H vs. the Giants, which certainly goes a long way in explaining the massive 20-game gap that exists in the NL West standings between the two teams. Of course, SF has more issues than just struggling against Colorado as they were just swept here at home by the Mets over the weekend. This perennial playoff contender now finds itself in the unusual position of having the second worst overall record (Phillies) in the sport as well as the second worst run differential (Padres). So, you might be surprised to learn that they are FAVORED tonight on the money line. I am not. The revenge angle (one of my favorites) is in play here and the Rockies arrive in town on their own five-game losing streak. Plus, we have Jeff Samardzija pitching for the Giants.

Samardzija is a real key here. While his overall numbers may not "wow" you, his other-worldly 77-3 KW ratio (not a misprint!) over his L10 starts certainly should. He's allowed 3 ER or less in eight of those and while one of the two he didn't was against Colorado, that was also at Coors Field. He is 0-3 against the Rockies this year, but two of the starts were on the road and he was a lot better in the one here at AT&T Park. For seemingly the entirety of the franchise's existence, Colorado has seen its offensive production plummet outside of Coors Field. This year, they average 4.6 rpg on the road.

The Rockies only scored seven runs total in three games at Dodgers Stadium over the weekend and six of those came in yday's loss. That 12-6 defeat does not set them up well today as their record after allowing 10+ runs the previous game is 2-6 this season. Though it's been a tight three-horse race in the NL West all season, a pretty clear cut case can be made that Colorado is the weakest of the three teams as they trail - significantly - both the Dodgers and D'bcks in run differential. Of course, all five losses during the current streak came to those two teams. They've obviously had the Giants' number in 2017, but like their road record, doesn't that have to regress a little? Starter German Marquez has dazzled of late, but I'm still a skeptic as his road WHIP is 1.400. 10* San Francisco

8* Run Line Texas (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. This would also be Cole Hamels' long-awaited return from a two-month stint on the DL (strained right oblique). He looked good in two rehab assignments, turning in a 1.04 ERA. Considering the Rangers have been able to maintain a .500 record w/o their top pitcher, one could make the case here that they're in pretty good shape moving forward. Hamels and Yu Darvish, both of whom will pitch in this series, are a formidable 1-2 combo at the front end of the rotation. The team, now 11-5 overall since June 9th, has actually outscored its opponents (+29 run differential) by a wider margin this year than they did in LY's 95-win campaign (only +8). A key to that has been their record in one-run games as LY they were a record-setting 36-11 while 2017 has seen them go just 5-12. But that's where the added insurance of the RL comes into play as I'll say Texas does no worse here than one-run defeat in Hamels' return.

Cleveland's curious struggles at home continued over the weekend as they were swept by the Minnesota Twins and shut out twice (outscored 13-2 overall!). That came on the heels of a 7-1 road trip, so there's no denying as to just how disappointing the weekend result was. For the year, the reigning AL Champs are 24-15 on the road, but only 15-20 here at Progressive Field. At -19.5 units YTD, no team has lost more money at the betting window than the Indians and it's really not even close. Another troubling sign here is the Tribe's 0-3 record this year after being shut out the previous game. Sunday saw them finish w/ nine hits, but no runs as they were 1 for 23 w/ RISP for the series. Starting tonight will be Carlos Carrasco, who certainly gives the team a "fighting chance," but note his 1.246 WHIP his L3 starts is a bit of a warning sign that the 1.53 ERA is a little misleading. He is 2-3 lifetime vs. Texas w/ a 5.95 ERA. 

The Rangers are coming off a one-run win Sunday, 7-6 over the Yankees, that saw them have to hold on after taking a 7-0 lead. The bullpen may continue to be a bit of a concern, but I certainly don't think Hamels is and at this price, he's too good to pass up. His five starts in April saw him turn in "the usual" numbers (3.03 ERA, 1.133 WHIP) and while strikeouts were down, he never allowed more than 3 ER in any start. He did lose to Cleveland, 9-6, in his first start of the year. But note that he was actually in line for the win before the bullpen allowed a Francisco Lindor grand-slam in the top half of the ninth. That capped a three-game sweep for the Tribe in Arlington, but now the revenge angle kicks in and given how the home team has struggled all year at Progressive Field, I'll gladly take the +1.5 here. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5)

8* St. Louis (4:15 ET): Many times, the team coming off the Sunday Night games is at a slight disadvantage playing on Monday as its opponent has had more lead in time. But despite this being an even quicker turnaround than per usual, I don't really feel as if that's the case for the Cardinals today in this make-up affair w/ the Reds. First off, they get to stay at home. Secondly, they have a big-time case of revenge on their minds after suffering a shocking sweep in a four-game series at Great American Ballpark earlier this month. Speaking of shocking, that sweep put the Reds at 7-2 head to head in this NL Central rivalry this season, but I feel it's them at the slight disadvantage as they've got to fly out to another city for one day after visiting Tampa Bay and Washington last week (went 2-4). With the revenge angle kicking in, this is an easy call.

For those "new to the program," I like to take teams playing w/ revenge for a prior series sweep of three games or more. Generally speaking, it has become increasingly difficult for to beat the same team, day after day, in today's game. As mentioned above, the Reds pulled off their shocking sweep of the Cards earlier this month at home. On the road, this team is just 12-24 and being outscored by 1.5 rpg. That's even after winning 6-2 yday, thereby avoiding a sweep in Washington. It has been nearly three weeks since Cincy won B2B games (haven't done it since sweeping St. Louis) as they've gone 2-13 their L15 games overall. Today's starter, Brandon Finnegan, is making his return from a two-month stint on the DL and a rehab assignment where he allowed four runs in five innings was certainly an ominous sign.

The Cardinals' offense reawakened last night w/ an eight-run output. Things looked somewhat grim early on as they trailed 4-2 going into the bottom of the sixth and were facing the prospect of being swept here in their own ballpark. Thankfully, things then turned their way w/ B2B explosive innings at the plate. With the Reds allowing 6.2 rpg in day games (11-19 record), the chance of another strong offensive effort is there. Michael Wacha will be the one toeing the rubber here for the Redbirds and there's no real sugarcoating the fact he's struggled in recent starts. But, Cincinnati (who he has not faced since his first start of the year) just might be the opponent for him to turn things around. Including six strong innings where he allowed just one run and three hits (back on 4.8), Wacha is 7-1 w/ a 2.95 ERA lifetime against the Reds. 8* St. Louis

6* NY Yankees (2:05 ET): After outlasting the Rangers 2-1 (in 10 innings) in Friday's opener, the Yankees were thoroughly dominated Sat afternoon in an 8-1 loss. I made the mistake of taking the team wearing pinstripes yday, but I'm "doubling down" here. Mainly because the starting pitching matchup is heavily slanted in their favor. Needless to say this looks like the biggest mismatch on the mound on the entire Sunday slate. Texas is forced to go w/ Nick Martinez, who despite a 6-4 team start record, grades out as potentially the weakest starter in any rotation in all of baseball. The Yankees will counter w/ Michael Pineda, who has been outstanding all season here at Yankee Stadium. Even after Saturday's loss, the Yanks are still outscoring visitors by a full 2.0 rpg here in the Bronx. I'm anticipating a blowout today as the Bronx Bombers should get back on track offensively. 

Admittedly, Martinez is off B2B quality outings. He allowed only one run and two hits in 6 1/3 IP vs. Toronto his last time out. But that came after allowing a total of 5 HR's his previous two starts. A 4.58 ERA and 1.246 WHIP indicate that Martinez should feel somewhat fortunate to have a winning team start record. He's been particularly bad on the road w/ a 5.27 ERA and 1.464 WHIP. Yes, the Yankees' bats have been silent so far in this series, but they average 6.2 runs per game at home for the year. Might a matchup w/ Martinez be what awakens the offense? I think so. Also, the Rangers' bullpen has some really ugly numbers outside of Arlington as well, namely a 6.05 ERA and 1.700 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Pineda has thrived here at Yankee Stadium as is evident by a 6-1 record in eight starts to go along w/ a 1.92 ERA and 0.948 WHIP. Yes, he's struggled in the past vs. the Rangers and the team is just 2-9 its L11 games overall. However, let us not be quick to forget that this is still one of the best teams in all of baseball as their YTD run differential is +96, which is second best in the American League. Texas is an interesting case study as LY they won 95 games, but outscored opponents by only eight runs. This year, the record is just .500, but they're +28 in run differential! I earmarked them early for regression this season and like the oddsmakers I don't like their chances - at all - today. 6* NY Yankees

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): Coming into this three-game series, the Indians had mostly dominated the Twins this season, going 8-2 head to head. A four-game sweep in Minnesota last weekend actually led me to take the Twins in Friday's opener due to the revenge angle. They won in shutout fashion, 5-0. Then came an absolute stunner Saturday as the Twins won again, this time as massive +245 money line underdogs (higher at some shops!) against Corey Kluber. Breaking down this AL Central race (which is basically just these two teams), I continue to be a bit confounded by how both the Tribe and Twins have been so much better on the road than at home this season. Minnesota is just 16-25 at Target Field while 22-9 on the road. It's a similar story for Cleveland, who is 15-19 here at Progressive Field, but 24-15 on the road. I'll call for that trend to come to a temporary halt today, however, as the Indians should be able to avoid the sweep. 

Looking at run differential, there can be no denying that Cleveland is the superior team here. They've outscored opponents by 49 runs this year (3rd best in the A.L.) while Minnesota has actually been outscored by 42 runs (3rd worst in A.L.). Note that despite the losing record here at home, Cleveland has still outscored visitors here at Progressive Field (4.7 to 4.2 rpg). Yes, the Twins do have their best pitcher (Ervin Santana) going today, but he's coming off B2B poor outings where he's allowed a total of 11 runs (4 HR's) on 19 hits in just 10 IP. He's also not fared too well here in Cleveland throughout his career, going 6-11 w/ a 4.00 ERA. I'm not sure how long he's going to be able to keep this surprise season of his up. 

The visitor is now 11-1 in Twins-Indians games this season, which is difficult to explain. Last night, Minnesota scored twice in the first inning, but then not again until the eighth and ninth, which was ultimately the difference in a 4-2 victory. The Indians outhit the Twins in the game 8-5, so there was definitely some "cluster luck" for the visitors there. Something else to consider when handicapping this game is that it's in the daytime and that favors Cleveland, who is 18-9 in day games compared to just 14-20 for Minnesota. Indians' starter Josh Tomlin is admittedly a bit of a question mark, but the last time he faced the Twins (was here at home and against Santana), he went eight innings and allowed just one run (on a solo HR) in what was one of his best outings of 2017 so far. 8* Cleveland