8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays are a club earmarked for improvement in 2017. Last year saw them finish 68-94 and in the AL East cellar. But they were better than that record. A run differential of -41 was almost identical to the -37 posted by the .500 Royals. What sunk TB last season (among other things) was an unfortunate 13-27 record in one-run games. I'd expect that record to improve dramatically this year and thus finishing around .500 is a distinct possibility here. The Yankees have been overachieving the last few years, but I would not be shocked to see them finally finish with a losing record. The home team is a good price at "plus money" at Tropicana Field this afternoon. 

Opening Day Starter Chris Archer should also be a big part of this year's Rays resurgence. He went 9-19 last year (10-23 TSR) and actually wound up being the biggest money-burning starter in all of baseball at -15.6 units. But he pitched better than the record and some of the peripheral numbers show. His second half was far better than the first (3.25 ERA, 103-19 KW rate). Coming off a career-worst year (in terms of record & ERA), it's only natural to expect a bounce back here. Center fielder Kevin Kiermaier being back is also huge, particularly in the field. When the former Gold Glover was in the lineup last season, the Rays basically played .500 ball.

The Yankees remain an older team. Three times in the last four years they have finished above .500 despite a negative run differential. The emergence of Gary Sanchez was huge in the second half, but I don't think he will necessarily be able to maintain that pace this season. Look for the absence of Andrew Miller to hurt the pen as well. Masahiro Tanaka starts today and has never lost to the Rays in eight career starts. While that sounds great, I expect Tanaka to regress some in 2017. The Yankees have also lost five years in a row on Opening Day. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): I'm about to make a very dangerous pivot in this year's World Series. After saying all year that the Cubs would win, I'm going against them in this deciding Game 7 as I think there's simply too much value on the Indians to pass up. Corey Kluber is the key to this one as he should be the best player on the field. While this will be his second consecutive start on three days' rest, note that if needed the Cleveland bullpen (including Andrew Miller) is rested and ready. Meanwhile, I thought Cubs' manager Joe Maddon errored badly in his use of Aroldis Chapman in Game 6. Last night's game basically swung on two key plays; an Indians fielding error in the first and an Addison Russell grand slam. Home teams tend to exhibit better win probabilities when off a loss of the kind of margin we saw Cleveland on the wrong side of yday. I'm calling for the Indians to win the World Series.

Before yday's game (where they were clear favorites), the Cubs were essentially a 2:1 proposition to win the WS. Now, we can get the Indians at essentially even money w/ Kluber on the hill. That's a bargain. Kluber has been remarkable in the playoffs, going 5 for 5 in terms of quality starts and allowing just 3 ER in 30 1/3 IP. Yes, all three runs allowed came in the games he was working on three days rest. But those were both still quality outings by any objective measure. Over his L7 starts, Kluber has a 6-1 TSR w/ a 1.55 ERA. The team has won 14 of his 19 starts here at Progressive Field this season. Manager Terry Francona (who has been excellent throughout this postseason) figures to have a "quick hook" if Kluber does show signs of faltering as all the key cogs in the bullpen are ready to go.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are going w/ Kyle Hendricks tonight. Take him out of the Friendly Confines and he's not as effective. His ERA more than doubles. Granted that number is only 2.95, but still. The Cubs' bullpen is a far more shaky proposition right now w/ Chapman's usage. He's thrown 62 pitches the L2 games as Maddon seems afraid to turn to any other reliever. Yes, Jon Lester is an option in this one, but he'd be operating only on three days rest himself. This game is likely decided by who scores first and the fact that Hendricks has gone longer than 5 1/3 only once in four postseason starts is an issue. When I took the Cubs in Game 5, I made mention that they had not lost three straight games since the All-Star Break. Well, that's happened only three times to the Indians! 10* Cleveland

10* Over Cubs/Indians (8:05 ET): Without a shadow of a doubt, Under has been the way to go in the MLB postseason, particularly when Cleveland has been involved. The Under is now 11-2 in all Tribe playoff games so far with the one of the two Overs coming in Game 1 of the LDS vs. Boston. The other was in Game 4 of this World Series when they scored seven runs, more than enough for Corey Kluber, who will get the nod if this thing goes seven. That all being said, I like the chances of seeing an Over come through tonight at Progressive Field. The wind is expected to be blowing out tonight in Cleveland and this park was a haven for Overs in the regular season (47-31-3). Plus, we have the return of the DH to both teams' lineups tonight. Take the Over.

In the regular season, Cleveland averaged the third highest number of runs per game at home in the league. Only park-aided Colorado and Boston (MLB's #1 offense) ranked higher). Even factoring in the playoffs, they still are averaging a healthy 5.4 rpg here for the entire year. Their lineup is back at "full strength" here and the pitcher will no longer have to come up to bat. Of course, they'll need a far better performance here than what they did against Jake Arrieta in Game 2. However, note that despite no-hitting the Indians for six innings, Arrieta was only in the strike zone a season-low 40 percent of the time in his last start! The Over is 12-3 in all of Arrieta's road starts this season!

Cleveland's depth-shy rotation sends Josh Tomlin to the mound for Game 6. He was one of the architects for the stunning Game 3 win (as +190 dogs on the ML!), but only lasted 4 2/3 IP. Yes, he gave up only two hits. But, for the second time in his career, he's being called upon to start on just three days' rest and the fact that his YTD ERA and WHIP are 4.36 and 1.216 WHIP should "count for something." We're likely to hear Joe Buck talk a lot about Kyle Schwarber in this game and this time rightly so as the Cubs' slugger will be back in the lineup in the DH role. Even though neither offense has hit well recently, I certainly think they are capable of combining to go Over this low number. 10* Over Cubs/Indians

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): If I go down, I might as well go down w/ the ship. It appears as if the Indians "can do no wrong" in this year's World Series as they are now one win away from capturing what would be Cleveland's second World Championship in less than five months. Previously, the city had gone over 50 years w/o one - in any sport! Meanwhile, the Cubs are clearly gripping as their scuffling lineup has managed only seven runs in the four games so far. But five of them came in the lone win (Game 2) and they'll be facing that starting pitcher (Trevor Bauer) again as they attempt to stave off elimination. Even if they do lose the WS, I still maintain that the Cubs were the better team on paper here. I cannot see them losing all three games at Wrigley.

Let's go back to my play on the Cubs in Game 4 of the NLCS. There, they were coming off B2B losses, both shutouts. But I was quick to point out the fact they'd gone 5-0 off B2B losses since a 1-8 swoon in early July. Well, as we now know, you can make that record a perfect 6-0. The Cubs have what I believe is the perfect "stopper" on the mound for this situation and that's Jon Lester. Yes, the Indians ability to run gave him trouble in the Game 1 loss. But now he's pitching at home where his TSR is 15-2 for the year. Lester has a 1.61 ERA and 0.869 WHIP here at the Friendly Confines. Again I'll note that theoretically Cubs pitchers should be benefiting from the fact the Cleveland lineup is w/o the DH. That lineup, even after yday, is still only batting a collective .211 its L7 games.

I went against Bauer back in Game 2 and for good reason. He is still battling an issue w/ his finger after slicing it repairing a drone. In three postseason starts, Bauer has a 1.776 WHIP and has yet to even go a full five innings. That latter issue is somewhat mitigated by the Indians' outstanding bullpen, but hopefully the Cubs can get out to an early lead here. Bauer is clearly the weak link in this Indians' rotation. While one can make the case that the Cubs are overvalued tonight, that doesn't change the fact that I still think they will win. 6* Chi Cubs

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Indians pulled out a somewhat improbable 1-0 victory in Game 3 (at +190 on the money line, no less!), their second shutout of the World Series and fifth overall in these playoffs (most ever). For the Cubs, it was a discouraging defeat as their last four losses have now all come via shutout fashion. But, as I pointed out in my analysis for Game 2, this team has typically done a great job at bouncing back from such defeats. They're now 7-2 in the role and 42-20 off a loss of any kind, period, this season. Even after losing last night, the Cubs remain 61-26 at Wrigley and the matchup advantages I believed them to have going into last night's game still exist tonight. By a wide margin, this was the best team in baseball all year & I just do not see them dropping B2B home games.

Cleveland has to love the position it is in as they are up 2-1 in the series and get to send ace Corey Kluber to the hill. Kluber was downright incredible in Game 1 as he struck out eight of the first nine batters that he saw and allowed only four hits total over six shutout innings. It marked the third time in his last four starts that Kluber didn't allow a single run. But the exception to that stretch came in Game 4 of the ALCS when he was working on three days' rest (1st time in career) as he will be here. Kluber allowed "only" 2 ER in 5 IP that day, but still, he did not look like the same pitcher. If Kluber has an Achilles' heel, it is giving up the home run ball and I would not be surprised to see the Cubs hit their first of the series here tonight. 

The Cubs counter w/ John Lackey, who I expect to pitch well. He's yet to go more than four innings in a postseason start thus far, but he sports a 2.62 ERA and 0.991 WHIP here at home this season. Those numbers are indicative of a TSR better than the one Lackey currently has (10-6), so he's "due." In yday's analysis, I spent a great deal of time talking about how the lack of a DH would hurt a Cleveland lineup that already struggles to score on the road. I still believe that to be true. The Indians have scored only two runs total the L2 games and have been held to just 1 in three of the last four games. This offense ranked just 27th in runs scored, 29th in batting average and 28th in OPS. They come in batting a collective .191 the L7 games. Visiting teams are now averaging less than 3.0 rpg at Wrigley for the year. 10* Chi Cubs

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): If you believe in momentum, then you have to think that this series took a dramatic shift after Game 2, which the Cubs won 5-1. Game 3 figures to be the most lopsided matchup, on paper, of this entire World Series. The Cubs check in as roughly a 2:1 favorite behind Kyle Hendricks and the price is absolutely justified. Note Cleveland is batting a collective .183 over its L7 games and that's w/ the DH spot in the batting order. Now, they lose that spot moving to the NL park where visitor run suppression was tops in all of MLB. The Indians don't hit particularly well anyway on the road as during the regular season; they ranked just 27th in runs scored, 29th in batting average and 28th in OPS. They face a top-flight pitcher in Game 3 tonight.

Visiting teams are averaging only 3.0 rpg here at Wrigley Field this season. That's, by far, the lowest average in all of MLB w/ only Dodger Stadium with 0.7 rpg of that number. A big reason for that impressive number has been the performance of one Kyle Hendricks, who toes the rubber tonight in Game 3. His ERA and WHIP are 1.31 and 0.848 at home this year and the team is 12-5 in his 17 starts. He made two starts in the LCS and in 12 2/3 IP, he allowed just one run and five hits total. Both of those starts did come here at the Friendly Confines. Somewhat incredibly, Hendricks has given up 3 ER or less in 27 of 33 starts this season. That includes 17 of his last 18! His WHIP is 0.796 his L3 starts overall. Clearly, I anticipate the Indians lineup struggling against him.

Starting opposite Hendricks will be Josh Tomlin. He's also pitched very well of late w/ a 2.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP his L3 starts. But the difference between he and Hendricks reside in the YTD numbers. Tomlin has just a 4.31 ERA for the year, although his WHIP is a more respectable 1.176. While we haven't seen one in a while, Tomlin is far more prone to a "bad" outing. Back in August, he allowed 6+ ER in four of six starts. Hendricks has never allowed that many in any start in 2016. Another key here is how the pitcher having to bat will effect the Cleveland bullpen. Tomlin has pitched only 5 and 5 2/3 IP in his two playoff starts, respectively. The Cubs are 61-25 at Wrigley this season. 6* Chi Cubs

8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): The Cubs were completely shut down by Corey Kluber last night as the 2014 Cy Young winner struck out eight of the first nine batters that he saw en route to a 6-0 Indians victory. But the Cubs obviously won't be facing Kluber again here. Rather it will be Trevor Bauer, who infamously sliced his finger fixing a drone. It was an ugly situation when Bauer tried pitching in Game 3 of the ALCS as he had to exit after just two batters due to the finger bleeding profusely. As someone who had the Over in last night's game, I was shocked to see how ineffective the Cubs lineup was, though they did have their chances (seven hits). The start time for Game 2 being bumped up an hour doesn't do the visitors any favors, but I'll call for them to even this series up. 

Tonight is the Cubs turn to send a former Cy Young winner to the bump. That would be Jake Arrieta. While his numbers are down compared to last year, Arrieta still had a strong 2016 by any objective measure as he comes in at 18-9 w/ a 3.20 ERA and 1.090 WHIP. Now two of the last three starts have been shaky as he allowed multiple HR's for the first time since 8.29 in a 6-0 loss to the Dodgers. But Arrieta rarely delivers B2B non-quality starts. In fact, that happened just once since the All-Star Break and it's only because he went just 5 2/3 IP (6 IP needed for a "quality start") while still allowing just one run in one of the pair. Over its last seven games, Cleveland is only batting .196 as a team and if you take Francisco Lindor out of the equation, things get even worse. Roberto Perez, a .196 hitter who had just three home runs in the regular season, cannot be counted on for multi-HR's again. 

You have to think the Cubs offense bounces back here against Bauer. I still think that the inclusion of the DH matters for them. Kyle Schwarber had one hit and one walk in his four plate appearances last night. Bauer is nowhere near as dominant as Kluber as is evident by his 4.37 ERA and 1.307 WHIP. Save for the abrupt ending to his last start, Bauer hasn't given up fewer than 3 ER in a start since 8.29 vs. Minnesota. He's given up 5 or more ER eight times since the start of July. The usage of ace reliever Andrew Miller may be limited tonight after he threw a season high 41 pitches last night. The Cubs are 41-20 off a loss this year, including 6-2 if they were shutout. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Over Cubs/Indians (8:05 ET): Runs have been hard to come by in this MLB postseason, particularly in games involving Cleveland. Game 1 of their series w/ Boston saw the Over cash (a 5-4 win w/ a total of 8.5), but since then, it's been all Unders as in seven straight including every game of the ALCS vs. Toronto. The most runs scored in any of those seven games was 7 and that too was against the Red Sox. No ALCS game saw more than six total runs scored. However, because of the rash of Unders, we've seen a significant adjustment made with the O/U Line for Game 1 of the World Series. This will be the lowest total for any Indians' postseason game yet and while the two Gm 1 starters are both strong, I believe the two offenses will do enough to get this one Over the total.

A key in handicapping the first two games of this series is to remember the Cubs, your NL Champs, will not have to send the pitcher to the plate. That should be a nice addition for a lineup that hardly needs the help; during the regular season the Cubs were #2 in all of MLB in runs scored (808), trailing only Boston. Perhaps the Cubs number was even more impressive than that of the Red Sox as they averaged over 5.0 rpg w/ the pitcher having to come to bat. They were tied for the MLB lead for runs scored on the road (5.2 per game). Corey Kluber has been outstanding of late for the Indians w/ a 0.98 postseason ERA and three straight Unders, but he did struggle some vs. Toronto, allowing 10 hits + issuing four walks in only 11 1/3 IP. Over the L3 games of the NLCS, the Cubs offense really woke up w/ 23 runs scored total. The DH role could potentially go to the returning Kyle Schwarber tonight.

Of course, an underrated Cleveland offense is quite formidable in its own right here at Progressive Field. Only the Rockies and Red Sox scored more runs per game at home than did the Tribe in the regular season. It should not surprise you to find out that this is the lowest total for any Indians game all season! In fact, since September 4th (a span of 35 games!), there have been only five occasions where the total was less than 8.0 for them! No AL team stole more bases than the Indians and I expect them to be able to run against Jon Lester and thus manufacture runs. Note that the Over was a perfect 5-0 this season for Cleveland in home games where the total was 7 runs. It was 10-3 for the Cubs on the road when the total was 7.0 (or less). 10* Over Cubs/Indians

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Cubs +1.5. There is no denying Clayton Kershaw's exploits or value to the Dodgers. The team is 4-0 this postseason in games that he pitches (including his save in Gm 5 of the LDS) and just 1-5 otherwise. But with the Cubs now favored to take this series and back at home for Game 6, being able to get an additional run and a half seems like a real bargain to me. It's not like the Cubs don't have a strong pitcher going in this spot in their own right. Kyle Hendricks has a 1.41 ERA and 0.889 WHIP at the Friendly Confines this season and though he took the loss opposite Kershaw in Game 2, it was 1-0. I had the Under in that matchup, but here I see the Cubs again doing no worse than a one-run loss and the possibility of them moving on to their first World Series since 1945. Take the +1.5.

The Cubs offense, or rather lack of it, had been the focal point of this series before they took Games 4 and 5. I was on them in both of those spots (won 10-2 and 8-4) and made mention that the Dodgers offense hadn't exactly been hitting the cover off the ball either. This postseason has seen LA average only 3.6 runs per game w/ a .228 team batting average. Like the Cubs, all offensive numbers are down from the regular season. Now they must go to the venue where visitors scored the fewest runs in the regular season. Save for a late inning outburst against Aroldis Chapman in Gm 1, the LA lineup did very little in the first two games of the series. Of course, the Cubs gave up only 3.0 rpg in the reg season here at home and Hendricks was a major reason for that. Though he hasn't gone particularly deep in either postseason start thus far, Hendricks did allow only three hits in 5 1/3 IP in Game 2. Since August 1st, he's allowed 2 ER or less in 12 of 13 starts.

Kershaw's exploits are well-known, but take note that all three of his postseason victories have come by exactly one run! In fact, half of his starts this year (12 of 24) have been ended up being one-run games! So, the run line really seems like the right way to go here. Also, let us not forget about the fact the Cubs are 60-25 this season at home. They're also 16-5 when taking the field w/ a day off. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Cubs finish off the Dodgers tonight. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5)

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): What a difference one game can make! Cubs fans were rightly getting very nervous after their team was shutout in B2B losses in Games 2 and 3. In fact, four of the seven times the Cubs have been shutout this year has come courtesy of Dodger Blue. But, as I mentioned in yday's analysis, the Cubs had not lost three in a row since an early July swoon (now 6-0 off B2B losses since then). The offense finally broke out in a 10-2 win last night and now they can head back to Wrigley up 3-2 in the series. I look for the offensive resurgence to continue at the expense of struggling LA starter Kenta Maeda, who has an atrocious 11.17 ERA and 2.585 WHIP his L3 starts. With Clayton Kershaw starting Gm 6 in Chicago, the Cubs cannot afford to drop this one.

The pitching matchup here is a rematch of Game 1. That mean Jon Lester goes for the Cubs and he was very sharp in the series opener, holding the Dodgers to just one run and four hits over six innings. That one run allowed came via a solo home run. For as much criticism as the Cubs' offense has rightly taken of late, the Dodgers' lineup hasn't really been any more productive as they're batting a collective .220 the L7 games w/ just 3.7 runs per game scored. They're unlikely to turn things around here against Lester, who has allowed 1 ER or less in 10 of his last 11 starts! It certainly wasn't his fault that Gm 1 got close (manager Joe Maddon pulled him for a pinch hitter) and w/ a 0.839 WHIP his L7 starts, he should hold LA in check once again. The Cubs are 26-8 this year in all Lester starts, including 14-3 L17.

Meanwhile, Maeda has been a disaster. He lasted only four innings in Game 1 after making it through just three in his lone LDS vs. the Nationals. In fact, he hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any of his last six starts. That puts a lot of pressure on this Dodgers' bullpen. As I said in yday's analysis, I'm not overly concerned w/ the Cubs offense as they led the NL in runs scored during the regular season. This price range does not seem to be a bad value when you consider they are 15-5 this season as road favorites in the -150 to -175 range on the ML (29-10 L3 seasons). I had the Cubs winning this series, so its only logical I'd continue to back them here. 8* Chi Cubs

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): My goodness, what has happened to the mighty Cubs, specifically their offense? The vultures are starting to circle in the Windy City as the team has been shutout in B2B games. In the playoffs, the team is batting only .185! Not only have they been shutout each of the L2 games, they've actually been shutout four of the 10 times they've played the Dodgers this year. None of this sounds very good at all, especially considering this franchise's ominous history. But, I'll continue to "hang my hat" on the fact that this was the best team in baseball - by far - this year. They outscored opponents by 252 runs in the regular season for a reason. I mentioned in yday's analysis that they were outstanding off a loss (now 40-20), well, since a 1-8 stretch to start July, they are a perfect 5-0 off B2B losses. I'll stick w/ the Cubs.

Veteran John Lackey will toe the rubber for the Cubs in this all-important Game 4. The team has won each of his last four starts, including one in the LDS vs. San Francisco, not to mention eight of his last 10. Only once since the All-Star Break has Lackey allowed more than 3 ER in a start (he allowed 4 vs. Milwaukee on 9.16). Though he lasted only four innings vs. SF, that was one of just three times since the start of July that he failed to make it to the sixth. He should be well-rested and ready to go here having not pitched in eight days. Though he has not faced them yet this year, Lackey has most certainly had the Dodgers number in his career; in 12 starts his ERA is 1.74 and his WHIP is 0.928.

The Dodgers counter w/ Jose Urias, the youngest pitcher to start a playoff game in MLB history (20 years of age). That's a sharp contrast from Lackey, who at 37 has more career postseason starts (21) than any active pitcher. Urias faced the Cubs twice during the regular season to mixed results. He got hammered at Wrigley Field, but was pretty dominant here at home. This game being at Dodger Stadium makes it seem like it might go his way then, but I'll still side with the experience of Lackey. Prior to yday, the Cubs were 5-1 coming off a shutout loss this season. I have to think it's only a matter of time before the offense finally wakes up. 10* Chi Cubs

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): All things considered, Jake Arrieta at this price seems like a real "steal." Yes, he may not be replicating his incredible 2015 campaign, but we're still talking about a pitcher w/ a 3.10 ERA and 1.087 WHIP this year. Given the scarcity of runs we typically see here at Dodger Stadium, I'd say LY's Cy Young winner is in line for a strong showing tonight in Game 3 of the NLCS . Oh by the way, the last time Arrieta pitched here, he tossed a no-hitter.  The LA lineup is batting a collective .218 here in the postseason. Lost in their own masterful pitching performance Sunday night (by Clayton Kershaw) was the fact they finished the game w/ only three hits. The Cubs are an outstanding 40-19 off a loss this year.

The Dodgers counter Arrieta w/ Rich Hill, who has certainly had a "short leash" thus far in the postseason. In two starts, he's lasted only seven innings total and given up five runs. I concede that he has pitched well at home since coming over in the trade from Oakland, but that's a very limited sample size (only three starts!). He has never won a postseason start. Game 2 of the LDS was particularly ugly as he allowed four runs and six hits in just 4 1/3 IP. He has never faced the Cubs in his career (he used to pitch for them). I have to think that the Cubs' potent lineup, which was second in the NL in runs scored during the regular season (trailing only Colorado, who is obviously aided by their home park) is set to break out of this slump they're in.

Overall, the Cubs are simply the much better team here. They finished the regular season w/ a remarkable +252 run differential, which was more than double all but two other teams. The pitcher friendly nature of Dodger Stadium should only amplify what is an outstanding defense. A big key in looking at this series vs. the last one is that the Dodgers strike out more than the Giants do. This park is also far smaller than AT&T and w/ the Cubs' defense being the best in the bigs, that's an edge for them. Arrieta seems to have regained lost form w/ his cutter and while he may not be as dominant here as Kershaw was Sunday, I fully expect him to lead the Cubs to victory. 10* Chi Cubs

6* Toronto (8:05 ET): Cleveland is the hottest team in baseball right now. They're 5-0 in the playoffs and haven't dropped a game in October. Despite facing two of the best offenses in the sport (including #1 Boston), Indians pitching has now allowed just eight runs total in the postseason, including only one to the Blue Jays. The Tribe accounted for my only loss in these playoffs (Gm 3 at Boston), but I'll be going against them again here in a similar spot. Note that I have cashed Cleveland three times already in the postseason, Games 1 and 2 vs. Boston plus Game 1 of this ALCS. It's just that I believe their questionable depth in the starting rotation begins to catch up w/ them in a seven game series and their offensive numbers simply haven't been very good on the road all season long.

Toronto is obviously desperate here. Down 0-2 in the series, a loss tonight would basically mean the end of their season (the '04 Red Sox remain the only team to ever erase a 3-0 series deficit). Here, they'll be handing the ball to Marcus Stroman and I believe he'll lead them to victory. Stroman has not worked since the Wild Card Game where he gave up only two runs and four hits over 6 IP. He now has a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his L3 starts. Shockingly, despite a very respectable 3.35 ERA and 1.186 WHIP his L7 starts, Stroman has not won a decision since August 14th vs. Houston. His very next start was against Cleveland and he recorded a no-decision despite allowing just one run in 7 1/3 IP. In two starts this year vs. the Indians, Stroman allowed only two runs (in 14 IP) and had a 15-2 KW rate. As noted above, Cleveland's offense (which has only four runs and 10 hits this series) declines on the road where they ranked 27th in runs scored, 29th in team batting average and 28th in OPS. 

Meanwhile, I expect the Blue Jays' offense to improve here at home. They average 5.0 rpg here for the season. It will help facing Trevor Bauer, who had to receive stitches for a minor cut on his finger while fixing a drone. Bauer and the team insist that won't have an effect on his Game 3 outing, and maybe they're right, but I'll focus on the fact that Bauer turned in the weakest start to date of the Cleveland rotation this postseason. He allowed two home runs in a 4-3 win over Boston in Game 1 of the LDS and despite a 4.91 ERA his L3 outings, his TSR is still 3-0. That record is definitely due to regress, especially considering a 6.33 ERA and 1.359 WHIP his L7 outings. He's allowed at least 3 ER in all seven of those starts. 6* Toronto

10* Under Dodgers/Cubs (8:05 ET): Last night's Game 1 seemed well on its way to a win for Under bettors. That was until the 8th inning. Down 3-1, the Dodgers tied the game up in the top half of the frame. Then came the bottom half. Miguel Montero stepped to the plate as a pinch hitter and delivered a grand slam that won the game. Dexter Fowler even followed w/ a solo shot as insurance. The number of runs scored by LA last night was right in line w/ what the Cubs allowed per game here at Wrigley during the regular season. Therefore, it's the Cubs' bats that we have to "worry about." Fortunately, we'll have Clayton Kershaw on our side to help mitigate the damage. I'm calling for an Under here in Game 2.

Kershaw was quite active in the LDS vs. Washington. While neither stat line looks particularly impressive from his two starts, note that the second one (Game 4) saw three of the five runs he was charged w/ not actually given up by him. Yes, he did allow those runners to get on base, but it was reliever Baez that allowed them to come home. Kershaw fanned 11 Nationals in that start and then of course came back on just one day's rest to get the final two outs of the series. For the year, we're talking a 1.96 ERA and 0.784 WHIP here. That WHIP was the best in baseball during the regular season. Eight of his 10 road starts have stayed Under the total. In eight career starts against the Cubs, Kershaw has posted a 2.18 ERA and 1.043 WHIP. They have yet to face him herei n 2016.

While Kershaw may lead the league in WHIP, his counterpart Kyle Hendricks was #1 in ERA (2.13). Hendricks' WHIP was a not too shabby 0.981 as well. Here at the Friendly Confines is where Hendricks has typically done his best work. He has a 1.39 ERA (best home ERA in baseball) and 0.866 WHIP here. Nine of the 14 starts have stayed Under the total. As mentioned above, visitors average only 3.0 rpg here at Wrigley for this season. The Dodgers are batting just .219 as as team the L7 games and Hendricks has a 0.70 WHIP in three career starts against them. Earlier this year, in this park, he held them to only two runs and three hits in 8 IP. Don't look for any grand slams tonight; this one stays Under. 10* Under Dodgers/Cubs

6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Already heavily favored, the NLCS clearly lines up well for the Cubs. It wasn't easy, but they dispatched of the Giants on Tuesday while the Dodgers had to go to a deciding fifth game in D.C. vs. the Nats. Not only that, but to win this series clinching game, LA had to call Clayton Kershaw into "emergency" duty, meaning he may not even pitch again until Game 3. Though I was on them and they did come through, the Dodgers are not a particularly good road team. Their record outside of Dodger Stadium remains below .500. Of particular concern here is that five of the seven regular season meetings vs. the Cubs saw the offense get held to three runs or fewer. It would be a stunner to me if the Cubs, clearly the best team in baseball, lost this game.

The Cubs have their rotation all lined up for this series and that means Jon Lester will go tonight in Game 1. I played him, successfully I might add, in the opener of the series w/ the Giants. While not easy, Lester certainly did his job in the 1-0 victory. He held San Francisco to just five hits in 8 IP, improving his TSR here at Wrigley to 14-2. He has a filthy 1.62 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in those 16 outings. As I'll run though later; it would appear as if the Cubs have a massive edge in starting pitching in tonight's matchup. Not that they need it; this team lapped the field in terms of run differential during the regular season (+252!) and they are 59-24 in all games played at the Friendly Confines this year. They are also 61-31 in night games. 

Meanwhile, Dodgers Game 1 starter Kenta Maeda is hardly in top form right now. He comes in w/ an unsightly 11.17 ERA and 2.275 WHIP his L3 starts, all team losses. Note that in his last two starts, which have spanned just 5 2/3 innings, Maeda has allowed the same number of runs that Lester has in his last TEN starts combined. Yes, take away one bad start at the end of the regular season and Lester has now allowed 1 or 0 ER in 9 of his L10 starts overall. Visiting teams score fewer runs per game at Wrigley than any other venue in the game. That's certainly not a good thing for a Dodgers' offense that comes in batting only .197 over its last seven games. Also, LA has been just awful this year against lefties (Lester is a southpaw) w/ a .213/.290/.332 regular-season slash line. Game 1 and likely the entire series for that matter, shape up as complete mismatch. 6* Chi Cubs

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Despite not having homefield advantage, Toronto is the favorite to win the series. But it is Cleveland that is favored to take Game 1, due in large part to the fact they'll be sending Corey Kluber to the mound. Neither of these clubs have lost a game here in October as both swept their respective LDS. I'm not necessarily shocked that either advanced, but doing so in such dominant fashion was a bit eye-opening. I view this first game of the series as a "must-win" for Cleveland as they'll probably need to win all of Kluber's starts in this series to have a chance to pull what would be a fairly "minor" upset. They did win the season series from Toronto, 4-3. Some will want to focus in on the fact the Jays actually outscored the Tribe in those seven games, but that's owed in large part to one 17-1 victory where Cleveland was short-handed following a 19-inning marathon game the day before.

Kluber was absolutely dominant in his LDS start vs. Boston, throwing seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. In handicapping this series, one must take into account that the Red Sox were a stronger offensive team (#1 in MLB in runs scored) than the Blue Jays all year long. Cleveland pitching held Boston to just seven runs in the three games, which was remarkable. Defensively, the Indians' infield hardly let anything get through. I'd make a case that Cleveland is the top defensive team in the American League. That makes Kluber's job all the more easy, not that he needs the help. The 2014 Cy Young winner comes in w/ a 19-9 record in 33 starts (21-12 TSR) and a 1.054 WHIP. He's allowed more than 3 ER only twice since the All-Star Break. Here at home, the team has won 12 of his 17 starts this year. 

Cleveland not only loves playing at home (where they are 55-28), but also on Fridays (22-5 this season!). I'd be a little concerned over Toronto's poor 1-7 record this season as a ML dog of +125 to +150 (12-32 in that price range L3 seasons). Cleveland is 83-47 when favored on the ML this year. They face Marco Estrada here. While his recent numbers are quite impressive (0.787 WHIP L3 starts), he's a bit more of a flyball pitcher and that will not serve him well here at hitter-friendly Progressive Field. Remember what I said in my analysis of Games 1 & 2 of the Boston series. Cleveland was the third highest scoring team at home during the regular season (5.6 rpg), trailing only Colorado and Boston. Another advantage they will enjoy here is the bullpen. Toronto blew a lot of games in the ninth inning during the regular season and no longer have the services of Joaquin Benoit. 8* Cleveland

8* Run Line LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Dodgers +1.5. To me, the Dodgers are pretty close to a 50/50 proposition to win this game. Thus, taking the RL is a pretty attractive option. I've had great success playing the RL thus far in the playoffs, cashing the Indians (won "outright" in Game 1) and the Giants (lost by 1 in Gm 4) of their respective series. In this best of five, we've seen two of the previous four games decided by exactly one run. Both, Games 1 and 4, were Dodger wins. While they've been outscored in the series (21-15), they do hold an 11-5 head to head edge against the Nationals since the start of last season, including 7-3 here in 2016. Both Game 5 starters lost their respective first starts in this series. The stakes couldn't be higher and I'm thinking runs will be at a premium here. I certainly would not be shocked to see LA win and I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss.

The Dodgers will give the baseball to Rich Hill on Thursday. While he hasn't pitched particularly well of late, neither has Washington starter Max Scherzer (more on him in a moment). Hill allowed four runs (in 4 1/3) in the Game 2 loss and has a 4.40 ERA/1.535 WHIP his L3 starts. His TSR (0-3) reflects how he's pitched over that time, but I feel it is important to remember that since coming over to the National League, Hill has allowed 2 ER or less in five of seven starts. He has a 0.905 WHIP in the Senior Circuit and on the road this year his ERA and WHIP are 2.31 and 0.95 respectively, which has translated into an 8-3 TSR. Hill was actually a ML favorite in that Game 2 start, so this is looking like a pretty strong value here. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some of Julio Urias here and though they were shaky in both Games 3 & 4, I have to think the Dodgers' bullpen will be more reliable overall.

Scherzer has a 5.82 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in his L3 starts, similar numbers to Hill. But the difference is that Scherzer has managed a misleading 2-1 TSR. He's allowed a total of 9 runs in his L11 IP w/ both starts coming here at home. I know the Dodgers haven't been hitting particularly well in this series, but they did get to Scherzer for four runs in six innings in Game 1. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the Nats here as they have never won a postseason series. Scherzer hardly has the greatest postseason ERA (3.98) and his lifetime TSR vs. the Dodgers is 2-7 w/ the last win coming back in 2014. One last thing worth mentioning is the so-called "Circadian Advantage" West Coast teams have over their East Coast counterparts in primetime affairs. This game will be the first non-daytime affair of the series. 8* Run Line LA Dodgers (+1.5)

8* Run Line San Francisco (8:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. For a 10th consecutive time, the Giants staved off elimination Monday night. The manner in which they did it was quite shocking as Madison Bumgarner, thought to be their "great equalizer" gave up a three-run homer to counterpart Jake Arrieta in the second inning. One would have thought that 3-0 lead would have held up for the Cubs, but it did not as an improbable eighth inning rally took place, keyed by Conor Gillaspie's triple. I was happy as I had the Over, which was a winner before the game was even decided. I'm now a perfect 3-0 in this series (had Cubs in both Games 1 and 2). Thanks to some predictable line movement, we can now grab the home team (Giants) w/ a little insurance (i.e. +1.5) at a relatively inexpensive price.

One issue that the seemingly invincible Cubs have in this series is that Giants hitters don't strike out much, especially here at home. Perhaps AT&T is a "pitcher's park," but its expansive nature somewhat mitigates the Cubs advantage defensively. Whereas Cubs hitters have struck out a total of 28 times in this series, Giants hitters have done so only 19 times. Two of the three games have been decided by one run and San Fran now has more hits in the series. Incredibly, seven of the last eight head to head meetings between these two teams have been decided by one run! The pressure will be immense on the heavily favored Cubs tonight and I think the situation does favor the Giants at home as this organization has consistently proven it can win when facing elimination.

Lefty Matt Moore gets the baseball tonight for the Giants. A mid-season acquisition, he was sharp down the stretch, allowing 2 ER or less in six of his last eight starts. One of the exceptions came at Coors Field, which is basically a "write off." The Cubs have never faced Moore before, which I believe is an edge for the pitcher. In his L2 starts, Moore allowed just two runs in 15 2/3 IP w/ a 17-2 KW rate. Both outings took place here at home. Much will be made of the fact that Cubs' Game 4 starter John Lackey is the last pitcher to beat the Giants in an elimination game, but that took place 14 years ago and has no real bearing to tonight. The Cubs are just 3-7 their L10 games at AT&T Park and w/ Giants pitching having allowed an .177 average the L7 games (2.1 rpg), I see the home team doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5).

8* Over Cubs/Giants (9:35 ET): San Francisco is on the verge of elimination and I don't think the fact that it's an "even year" can help them. Madison Bumgarner might and since he's the Game 3 starter I won't be outright calling for an end to their season tonight. Bumgarner continues to be a postseason giant (pun intended!) as he was masterful in the Wild Card game where he held the Mets to just four hits in a CG shutout. He's also had the Cubs number throughout his career, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 12 starts. But, of course, this is not your typical Cubs team. Even though we have two top-flight pitchers facing off here (Arrieta goes for the Cubs) and the Under is 4-0-1 the last five meetings, I'm going to make a surprising call and go w/ the Over here. The number is just too low.

The key to this play resides on the Arrieta side. Last year's Cy Young winner regressed a bit in 2016, which was expected. There was simply no way he could match LY's numbers (1.92 ERA, 0.865 WHIP). Really, the regression began in LY's playoffs where he allowed four runs in B2B starts. Arrieta's regular season was still great by most pitchers' standards. But dating back to the final start of June, there were five times when he allowed at least 5 ER. His worst outing of the year came his last time out when he gave up seven runs in just 5 IP vs. the Pirates. He's had plenty of time to rest since then (11 days off!), but a 4.33 ERA over his L7 starts should be taken as a warning sign. Also, the Over was 11-1 in Arrieta's 12 road starts during the regular season, and none of the totals for those starts were as low as this one.

Ironically, I did play the Under in the NL Wild Card Game w/ Bumgarner starting. But he was also facing a much weaker offense there (Mets) in a park known for low-scoring games. Giants' home games averaged a solid 8.4 rpg in the regular season. Same w/ Cubs' road games. In fact, the Cubs finished the year tied (w/ St. Louis) for the most runs per game scored on the road at 5.2. Bumgarner and Arrieta did face off in early September and it was the pitcher's duel most expected (3-2 Giants' win). But that was at Wrigley. For the Cubs, the Over is 7-2 this year when playing on the road and the total is 7 or less. 8* Over Cubs/Giants

10* Boston (6:05 ET): Note: My Game 3 analysis remains unchanged from yday's rainout! Prior to the start of the playoffs I called for a Cubs-Red Sox World Series. Yet, I've been on Cleveland in each of the first two games of this LDS. Game 1, I took the Tribe +1.5 and them winning that game "outright" may prove to be the difference in this series. Game 2, started by Corey Kluber, was always the spot where you'd favor the Indians. With the benefit of hindsight, Boston losing the final two games of the regular season may come back to haunt them. It cost them the homefield edge in this series and possibly beyond as top seed Texas has been eliminated. That all being said, I'm backing the Red Sox here as the series shifts to Fenway Park where the team is far tougher. Boston is 9-2 this season when on a losing streak of 3+ games.

I don't think the Boston offense can be kept in check for long. They paced MLB during the regular season w/ 878 runs scored. The #2 team (Cubs) was at 808. But in the first two games of this series, Red Sox hitters have really struggled at the plate. They were shockingly held to only three hits by Kluber and company in Game 2 Friday. But I fully anticipate them waking up w/ the return to Fenway. Only Colorado, who is always aided by their unusual park, scored more runs per game at home this season. Paced by a .300 team batting average, the Sox averaged 5.9 rpg at home. I realize that Cleveland's starter Josh Tomlin comes in having pitched quite well over his L4 starts. But, for the season he has a 4.42 ERA.

It's a bit of a similar situation w/ Clay Buchholz for Boston. His YTD numbers are not great, but he has pitched well recently. His L3 starts have seen him deliver a 1.42 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. What's the difference between him and Tomlin then? Well, Buchholz will benefit from going against an offense that is very likely set to decline on Monday evening. The first two games of this series have seen Cleveland score 11 runs and hit four home runs. In my analysis, I documented how the Indians are actually the third highest scoring home team in baseball (trailing Colorado and Boston). But, on the road, the drop is severe. The Tribe ranks just 27th in rpg scored on the road while posting the second worst team batting average (.236). They are 28th in OPS (OBP + slugging) at .691. The Red Sox will not be swept. 10* Boston

6* Toronto (7:30 ET):  Rangers fans will desperately want to cling to the fact that LY' LDS saw Toronto lose the first two games at home, only to take the next three at their team's expense. But I do not see the script being flipped in 2016. There's no skirting around how poor the Rangers' record in home LDS games now is (1-11!) and the fact they are "up against it" having to stay alive in Rogers Centre where the host Jays should enjoy a tremendous advantage. There's also no getting around the fact that Texas is simply a very average baseball team. I've harped on this all year, but their +8 regular season run differential (were 36-11 in one-run games!) was an ominous sign for the playoff. This was a .500 team masked in "95-win clothing."

Toronto's pitching has been underrated all season long. Last season, the offense carried the team. This year, they gave up the fewest number of runs in the entire American League! Aaron Sanchez was a big contributor to that pitching prowess and he gets the starting nod tonight in Game 3. He comes in w/ a 1.42 ERA and 1.000 WHIP his L3 starts and actually led the American League in ERA for the entire regular season! He allowed just 3 ER total in 19 IP those L3 starts, including a critical win over Boston. Over the L7 games, Toronto has given up an average of just 2.7 rpg w/ opponents batting a woeful .207. They've won the last five and given up just four runs total in this series. They're in real good shape here.

Texas will counter w/ Colby Lewis. He has not pitched well of late (6.93 ERA, 1.694 WHIP L3 starts), nor has he pitched well against the Blue Jays in his career. In 12 career starts vs. them, he has a 6.17 ERA and that includes 5.81 in six starts here in Toronto. Furthermore, the Rangers' offense is not very good on the road. They decline to 25th in team batting average and 29th in OBP, looking at only road games. I'll call for this fortunate season of theirs to come to its official end tonight. Factoring in Games 1 and 2, the Rangers have now been outscored over the course of the season! For a frame of reference, Toronto has a YTD run differential of +104.  The Jays are 9-3 L12 head to head vs. the Rangers. 6* Toronto

8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Coming into this series, I thought the Giants didn't have much of a chance, save for Game 3 when Madison Bumgarner will get the baseball. Therefore, they probably let one slip away last night as they held the Cubs to three hits, but came up short, 1-0. The San Francisco offense doing little did not surprise me. In my Game 1 analysis, I talked about how they were likely to struggle at the plate in the first two games of this series. Road teams average a MLB low 3.0 rpg here at Wrigley Field. The offense is not likely to pick up tonight facing Kyle Hendricks, who has a 0.857 WHIP here at the Friendly Confines. Go w/ the Cubs again tonight.

Among the regular starters in the Cubs' rotation, Hendricks has both the lowest ERA and WHIP. As was the case w/ Lester yday, he did struggle some in his final regular season start. But we saw how Lester bounced back yday. Sticking with this theme, like Lester, he had allowed 2 ER or less in all previous starts dating back to August 1st. Somewhat incredibly, Hendricks never allowed more than 4 ER in any start this year! Three of the six times he allowed that many, it was a result of unearned runs. The one time he faced the Giants, he allowed one run and three hits in 5 1/3 IP. In addition to the tremendous WHIP here, Hendricks also had the lowest home ERA (1.32) in all of baseball.

Jeff Samardzija allowed three runs in four innings the one time he faced his former team this year. The Giants starter has a 4.03 ERA on the road this year. San Fran is now just 3-9 its L12 games here in Chicago.  The Cubs are 11-4 after winning their previous game in a shutout fashion. As a road underdog of +150 to +175, the Giants are 1-5 this season and 7-17 the L3 seasons. In seven years pitching here, Samardzija posted a 3.97 ERA.  8* Chi Cubs

8* Chi Cubs (9:15 ET): Because of high, game by game prices, I didn't get to play the Cubs as often as I would have liked during the regular season. They are, without question, the best team in baseball. Not only did they blow away the field in terms of run differential (+252), that number suggests that they actually underperformed in terms of wins. That's scary considering that they won 103 games, but the run diff suggest they played at the level of a 109-win team! Were it not for the tired narrative of "it's the Cubs," no one would even be questioning this team's position as the overwhelming favorite coming into the postseason. Unlike the NBA's Golden State Warriors, this team "should" have had an even better regular season record. Thus, I have no problem grabbing them at this price.

San Francisco was your NL Wild Card Winner as they beat the Mets 3-0 on Wednesday. I had the Under, so it was an easy winner for me as well. Because it's an "even year," some will tout the Giants as having a chance here, but I simply cannot back them at Wrigley Field. They won Tuesday not because it was 2016, but because of another phenomenal postseason showing from Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner will not start again until Game 3 of this series and by then, the damage may already have been done. Johnny Cueto is a fine pitcher in his own right, but his last loss came against these Cubs, here at Wrigley Field, back on September 4th. Recent postseason experience has not been good for Cueto. Since his meltdown in the 2013 Wild Card Game at Pittsburgh (was w/ Cincinnati at the time), he's allowed 19 runs and 25 hits in just 28 1/3 IP. That's five starts.

Remember that the Giants' offense failed to score a single run until the top of the ninth on Wednesday. That's not a good sign when getting set to enter Wrigley where opposing teams averaged just 3.0 rpg this year, the lowest average in all of MLB. The Cubs gave up - by far - the fewest number of runs in baseball during the regular season. Starting Game 1 will be Jon Lester, who has a 1.74 ERA and 0.89 WHIP here at the Friendly Confines to go along w/ a 13-2 TSR. While Lester did allow 5 ER (at Cincinnati) in his final reg season start, he had allowed 1 or 0 ER in each of his previous eight turns.  8* Chi Cubs

8* Cleveland (4:35 ET): Turns out that I didn't even need the +1.5 last night as the Indians won Game 1, as underdogs, 5-4 over the Red Sox. Manager Terry Francona leaned heavily on two relievers - Andrew Miller and Cody Allen - to get that big win, so one would presume starter Corey Kluber is going to have to carry the load w/ the quick turnaround this afternoon. I feel that the former Cy Young winner will be up to that challenge. As far as the vaunted Boston offense goes, remember what I talked about in yday's analysis. Cleveland ranks third in all of MLB in runs per game scored at home (5.8), which is a big reason that they're now 54-28 here this season. With Kluber on the hill, the Tribe are being drastically undervalued at Progressive Field for Game 2.

This Indians offense was able to get to 20-game winner Rick Porcello last night (hit 3 HR's off him in one inning), so I don't really fear David Price in this spot. Besides, Price has generally been awful in the postseason and that is putting it mildly. In eight career playoff starts, he's 0-7 w/ a 5.27 ERA. Like the team, Price somewhat sputtered at the end of the regular season as well. His last road start saw him give up six runs and 12 hits to a far less potent lineup - the Yankees. He did allow only one run and four hits at home to Toronto on Sunday, but the Red Sox still lost that game, costing them homefield advantage in this series. I realize that Boston is 9-1 this season off three consecutive losses. But this is a very good team that they're facing. Price's ERA was only 3.99 during the regular season. This is one of those rare times when Boston is NOT the better offensive team in the matchup.

Kluber has not pitched since 9.26 due to a groin issue, so he should be fresh. As I've pointed out many times throughout the year, Kluber's WHIP this season (1.060) is actually lower than it was in 2014 when he took home the Cy Young. When he's taken the mound at home this year, the team is 11-5. It's a real "T.G.I.F." situation in Cleveland as the Tribe is 21-5 in Friday games this season! Kluber faced Boston twice in the regular season, winning once and losing once. Remember that he has an outstanding defense to back him up. Catcher Roberto Perez turned in an awesome game behind the plate last night.  8* Cleveland

10* Run Line Cleveland (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a RL play only where I am taking the Indians +1.5. This would seem to be an ideal matchup for Boston. Despite being the lower seed, they are the favorite due to Cleveland's starting rotation being in shambles (no Danny Salazar, no Carlos Carrasco). That leaves Trevor Bauer to be the Game 1 starter for the home side here. But despite the fact that the Tribe seems "up against it" in this series, I think they are a tremendous value here at home, particularly only having to lay a short price to get the additional 1.5 runs. This team was 53-28 here at Progressive Field during the regular season. Seven of those losses (25%) were by one run. Go w/ the run line here.

Boston led the league in offense during the regular season (878 runs), but this is the playoffs when runs tend to be at a premium. They didn't exactly close the regular season strong at the plate w/ just a .204 average the L7 games while scoring 2.9 rpg. That's a good sign for Bauer, who has an 11-5 team start record here at home (solid 1.259 WHIP). Bauer didn't fare that well in his lone start vs. the Red Sox this year (gave up 4 ER in 5 IP), but that was at Fenway Park and all the way back in May. Bauer's last start, in Kansas City on October 1st, went well as he allowed only three runs in six innings of work. He also finished w/ nine strikeouts, his most in a start since 8.19. The Indians did sweep their final series of the regular season, at Kansas City, so they come in w/ "momentum" (hate that word!).

Another key here is that Cleveland's offense is significantly better at home than on the road. Here at Progressive Field, they average a strong 5.6 rpg (.287 team batting average). Only the Red Sox and Rockies (of course) averaged more runs per game at home than did the Indians. So the surprising Rick Porcello, a 22-game winner, best beware. The Indians' lineup is almost all lefties and switch-hitters. Porcello's 2016 renaissance was downright shocking and I'm not sure I buy him here in October, a month where the Red Sox have not won a game in three years. They are also just 2-7 here in Cleveland since the start of the 2014 regular season. Cleveland has the better bullpen and defense, which could prove to be more beneficial than Boston's offense here.  10* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

10* Under Giants/Mets (8:05 ET): The Over went 6-1 in the seven regular season meetings between these two teams. It was the last one that stayed Under with Noah Syndergaard, the starter here for New York, on the hill. Syndergaard wasn't nearly as effective when faced off w/ Madison Bumgarner back in May, giving up four runs in just 5 2/3 innings. That turned into an eventual 6-1 Mets' loss. But with these two facing off again, I just can't see many runs being scored as the stakes are so high. Something to consider is that Citi Field - on average - was one of only five parks to see less than 8.0 rpg scored during the regular season. That's higher than the total here, but again, you have to factor in the two starters. There were only two parks - Wrigley Field & Dodger Stadium - where visiting teams scored fewer runs per game than here at Citi Field (3.7 rpg). The Mets' offense ranked just 25th in runs scored for the year, the Giants were 19th (25th in slugging). Take the Under.

Seven times in his career, Bumgarner has started a playoff road game. His TSR is 7-0! So, I don't dare fade him in this spot, especially considering the 0.60 ERA is by far and away the best ever in MLB history when starting away from home in the postseason. Some may want to write 2016 off as a bit of a "down year" for Bumgarner considering a 15-9 record in 34 starts (20-14 TSR). But he posted a 2.78 ERA and 1.024 WHIP and finished strong w/ a 0.935 WHIP his L7 starts and a 0.738 WHIP his L3. The news just keeps getting worse for the Mets too. In six career starts, Bumgarner has NEVER lost to them and has a 1.80 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. That not only includes the six scoreless innings he tossed opposite Syndergaard here back in May, but also a CG shutout in 2014. So, the big lefty is working on a 15-inning scoreless streak here at Citi Field.

Syndergaard may not have pitched all that well against Bumgarner back in May, but he came back and threw eight scoreless innings against the Giants in August, allowing only two hits. He posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.121 WHIP here at home during the regular season (16 starts). In his last seven starts overall, he allowed 2 ER or less six times (2.06 ERA, 0.985 WHIP). He closed his regular season by allowing just one run and five hits in six innings against the Marlins. That game only went Over b/c the Mets managed to score 12 runs, something that will not be happening here. The Mets stayed Under in all four games since. The bar is low, but these two starters will be up to the task in what I anticipate will be a tremendous pitcher's duel. 10* Under Giants/Mets

10* Toronto (8:00 ET): Baltimore will go w/ Chris Tillman in tonight's Wild Card matchup and that makes sense. The team went 22-8 in his 30 regular season starts, but just 67-65 in all other games. He finished +14.7 units, which was top five among all starting pitchers. Tillman also posted a 4-0 TSR vs. Toronto this year. But his ERA in those four outings was a pretty pedestrian 3.63. He never lasted more than six innings in any of the four starts. That's pretty indicative of overall results for him as he won far more than he should have given the numbers. While no manager does a better job of juggling the bullpen that Buck Showalter, I think there's some real concern with Tillman's health (shoulder issue) as he was certainly less effective down the stretch (5.03 ERA, 1.529 WHIP L7 starts) due in large part to declined velocity on his fastball. Having a negative KW ratio in three of your last five outings is never a good sign, but it could really cost Tillman here facing a lineup that is excellent at drawing walks. This year aside, his career numbers vs. Toronto aren't good (5-10, 5.44 ERA), including a 2-7 WL record here at Rogers Center w/ an unsightly 7.01 ERA. In four starts LY vs. the Jays, he was 0-4 w/ a 11.72 ERA.

Toronto counters w/ Marcus Stroman, who is a far better ground ball pitcher than Tillman. Assuming Stroman can continue to keep the ball down tonight, that's a much-needed trait to possess when facing the Orioles, who tend to "live off" the home run. Note that Stroman led all of MLB in ground ball percentage during the regular season and was 20 points higher than Tillman in that department. Given the respective lineups here, that's a massive edge for Stroman, whose won-loss record may not match his counterpart but the numbers are essentially the same (WHIPs are basically identical). Yes, Stroman failed to beat the Orioles in three tries during the regular season, but he pitched well enough to get the victory every time. While winless in September, that was owed to the offense getting shut out THREE times when he was on the mound. I don't see that happening here. Over his L13 starts, Stroman's ERA is 3.24 and he's given up only seven home runs in 83 1/3 IP.

Toronto won the regular season series, barely, going 10-9 head to head. That includes a 6-4 mark here at Rogers Centre. While homefield advantage has meant very little in year's past in these Wild Card matchups, I think it will here. Baltimore is the ONLY AL playoff team to have posted a losing road record during the regular season. Something else to consider is that Toronto posted a far better run differential (+93 to +29), so the fact the teams finished the regular season w/ identical records is a bit misleading. The price is absolutely justified on the Jays here and they are 17-9 as a ML home favorite in the -125 to -150 range. 10* Toronto

10* Under Padres/D'backs (3:10 ET): Multiple games on Sunday's MLB slate will help define the playoffs. This ain't one of 'em. Instead, we'll play to decide who finishes in last place in the division. NL West also-rans San Diego and Arizona are tied (68-93) and will close out very forgettable seasons here at Chase Field, home of - on average - the second highest scoring games in all of baseball, trailing only perennial leader Coors Field. Sadly for the host D'backs, they give up 6.3 rpg here where they are a lousy 32-48 (-22.0 units). The Over is an incredible 51-27-2 in Arizona home games this season after yday's 9-5 win over the Padres. But I'll call for an uncharacteristic end to this lost campaign and say that game #162 will be lower scoring than expected. Take the Under. 

Like I said, it's not often that Arizona wins here at Chase Field. But six steals and three Padres errors certainly aided their cause Saturday. But offense hasn't really been the issue for the D'backs this season. Rather, they enter the season's final day having given up the most runs in all of baseball. (Depending what happens today, Minnesota could win up w/ that dubious distinction). Remember when Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller were supposed to turn around this pitching staff? Oops! It should be said that starter Archie Bradley pitched very well last night, striking out 11. San Diego scored three of its runs late (8th inning) when the game was basically already decided. Today, it will be Matt Koch toeing the rubber. His one and only start thus far went well as he allowed just two runs (on one hit) in 5 IP. The game, a 4-2 loss to Washington, stayed Under.

Going back to how Arizona was able to generate its runs yday, I don't believe we'll be seeing that again. Not just because San Diego isn't likely to be as sloppy, but also because they'll send Paul Clemens out to the hill. In his L3 starts, Clemens has a phenomenal 0.57 ERA and 0.702 WHIP. When he faced Arizona on 9.20, both runs he allowed were unearned and that game still stayed Under (5-2 SD win). He allowed only three runs when he faced the D'backs back in April. While the Over is 7-1 when San Diego plays at Arizona this year, the Under is 41-28 in all of their other road games. This total is too high. 10* Under Padres/D'backs

10* Under Indians/Royals (4:10 ET): Cleveland, still w/ something to play for (home field in the LDS vs. Boston), won here yday 7-2. There is a chance they may have to play a make-up game vs. Detroit on Monday, which could have playoff implications for both teams. But yday aside, make no mistake about it; the Tribe are limping into the playoffs. Right now, they have only TWO healthy veteran starting pitchers! Carrasco is now done for the year while the status of Kluber and Salazar remains up in the air. But the team got a shockingly good start last night from Ryan Merritt, the first lefty to start for the team all year. He retired the first 13 Royals that he saw. Kansas City has not been a strong offensive team this year. Take the Under here.

One of the Tribe's two healthy starting pitchers right now is Trevor Bauer. Unfortunately, he has not been very effective of late. Each of his L5 starts have gone Over the total. But as stated above, this will be a weak offense that he's facing here. The Royals have scored the third fewest number of runs in the American League this year and they certainly have not been able to solve Cleveland's pitching. In the last 6 head to head meetings, all Indians victories, KC has been held to four runs or less (just 15 total). Bauer has actually not yet faced the Royals in 2016, but in six career starts against them, his ERA is 3.41. He allowed 3 ER or less in all three starts vs. them in 2015 including one complete game. Bauer actually pitches better on the road, where the Under is 7-2 in his starts this year.

Cleveland is 11-2 Under this year, on the road, when the total is 9 or 9.5. A big reason for that is an offense that quite frankly isn't very good away from home. They are actually 28th in runs scored on the road (Kansas City is one of the two teams they are ahead of in that department, Atlanta is the other). They are also 28th in team batting average and 29th in OBP (on the road). This all would seem to position Royals starter Edinson Volquez to have a quality outing this afternoon. Volquez did just hold the Indians to one run and four hits (6 2/3 IP) when he faced them earlier this month. That was his third straight time dominating this lineup. In those L3 starts vs. Cleveland, all since June, Volquez has allowed only 3 ER (10 hits) in 20 2/3 IP. This should be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Indians/Royals

6* Seattle (10:10 ET): Time is running out on the Mariners. With three games to play, they trail the two current Wild Card teams - Toronto and Baltimore - by two games. They would also need to leapfrog Detroit, who was rained out yday and thus stays one-half game up on the M's. Seattle did help its own cause Thursday w/ a 3-2 win over the last place Athletics. They probably need a sweep here, however, to have any chance at making the postseason. Fortunately, the A's should comply as they've got just one win in the last 10 games, plus are now -106 for the year in run differential. They've scored the fewest runs in the American League and guaranteed a last place finish (currently 67-92). Seattle absolutely should win again tonight.

It wasn't necessarily easy for the Mariners yday, but they never trailed and broke a 1-1 tie in the seventh, never to look back. Pitching has been strong of late, allowing just 3.4 rpg their last seven. Taijuan Walker seems to be back in top form and he'll go tonight. Walker is 3-1 his L4 starts overall w/ one CG shutout mixed in there. Last time out, he allowed just three runs in 5 1/3 IP against Minnesota. It's a little surprising to see an 0-2 TSR vs. Oakland this year, but he also hasn't faced them since May. That last time came starting opposite Rich Hill, who is no longer here, and Walker got tagged w/ four unearned runs. His only other start vs. the A's this year saw him allow just two runs in 6 IP. Overall, Seattle is 11-5 vs. Oakland this year.

The A's, who are just 2-8 as a ML road underdog of +175 to +200 this year, are going w/ Raul Alcantara. This will be his fifth start since joining the rotation (1-3 TSR so far) and he was on the losing end vs. Seattle earlier the month. This Oakland team is clearly just "playing out the string" as they've lost 9 of 10 while getting held to two runs or fewer seven times. Twice they've been shutout and three other times they were held to just one run. Seattle has all the reason in the world to keep competing while Oakland has none. 6* Seattle

8* Colorado (8:10 ET): Admittedly, little (if anything) is at stake this weekend at Coors Field as the Brew Crew comes to town. Both teams are already assured of losing seasons (again) and neither is playing particularly good baseball at the moment. Milwaukee, who had Thursday off, has dropped four of five. Colorado returns home following an unsuccessful 1-6 road trip that saw them have to play at both Los Angeles and San Francisco, the two playoff contenders in their own division. But, the Rockies do have revenge here after being swept in Miller Park last month. I think they're the better team anyway (as does run differential), plus at home they at least have a winning record. The Brewers are a lousy 30-48 on the road this season.

To me, the Rockies should be a little bit closer to .500. They've only been outscored by 15 runs over the course of the season (Milwaukee at -62). Colorado's run diff was actually in the black before the last road trip. Note that in their last home game, they drubbed St. Louis 11-1. Offense will of course pick up tonight as the home team averages 6.4 rpg here at Coors, the highest scoring average at home in all of baseball. Here, they'll face little known Brent Suter, whose big league debut did not go all that well last month. He allowed four runs and seven hits in just 4 1/3 IP. Coming out of the bullpen, he's looked better since (in very limited work), but Coors Field is a whole different animal and tonight he'll be facing multiple players going for individual honors. Nolan Arenado is tied for the NL lead in home runs and is also #1 in all of MLB in RBI's. DJ LeMahieu is going for the batting title and has a great chance to win it w/ Washington's Daniel Murphy injured.

Colorado counters w/ Chad Bettis. The numbers may not suggest he is the team's best pitcher, but he has been the most successful w/ a 20-11 TSR returning 11.95 units at the betting window. Somewhat surprisingly, Bettis' numbers are slightly better at home than on the road. That's a good thing here, obviously. Starting opposite Clayton Kershaw his last time out, Bettis needed to be at his best and wasn't. But before that, the team had won his previous four outings. He did throw a CG shutout (two-hitter) here at home vs. San Fran on 9.2.  8* Colorado

10* Over Rockies/Giants (10:15 ET): Playing the Over in this matchup accounted for my lone loss in MLB yday. Thanks to a shockingly great performance from starter Tyler Chatwood, Colorado shut San Francisco out, 2-0. That was a game the Giants really needed to win too; the Cardinals had already lost and a win would have had them two games up with four to play. Discussed in yday's analysis is that while Rockies' road games obviously see significantly less scoring than their home counterparts, they still average 9.0 rpg. Giants home games average 8.4 rpg. Thus, this number still looks way too low to me, especially b/c we won't have to "worry" about Chatwood pitching well again for the road team. Take the Over.

Jon Gray will be the one pitching tonight for Colorado. He has a 4.59 ERA and 1.242 WHIP in his 28 starts this year. While posting incredible strikeout numbers his L2 starts (26 K's in 13 IP!), Gray continues to give up runs. He allowed four his last time out, in just four innings, as the team fell to the Dodgers by a score of 5-2. The start before that was a remarkable 16 K, CG shutout, but that also came that Padres' expense. (See Dodgers-Padres writeup for breakdown of SD offense). Overall, in three of his last four starts, Gray has given up four or more runs. He allowed six (in only four innings) at San Diego on 9.10 and also gave up five in 7 IP vs. Arizona on 9.4. For what it's worth, the Over is 11-3 this year when Colorado plays on a Thursday.

San Francisco did have 19 hits in a 12-3 win Tuesday, so yday's result was definitely unexpected. Johnny Cueto will start tonight and while his season numbers suggest he may not be our friend (in terms of the Over), I look at his last start and say he was "lucky" not to give up any runs. In just 5 1/3 IP, he allowed eight hits to the Dodgers. Yes, the first Cueto-Gray matchup this year did result in a real "pitcher's duel," (2-1 Giants' win), but this time around, I expect a much different result. Colorado has still allowed 10+ runs three times in the L8 games. Tonight's game may mark just the 14th time this season a Rockies game has gone off with a total of seven runs or less. 10* Over Rockies/Giants

8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): The Dodgers are really letting some golden opportunities slip away here in San Diego. If they end up not having homefield advantage in the LDS vs. Washington (that matchup is already 'locked in'), then Dodger Blue will likely rue this series which has already seen them drop two games to the lowly Padres. It should be pointed out that San Diego has absolutely nothing to play for here; they are still 22 games below .500 w/ a -72 run differential. But they seem to love the spoiler role. However, to me, the key to handicapping this matchup is the fact that the Padres come in on a three-game winning streak. Five times previously this has happened for them, all five times they have lost the next game. Go with the Dodgers.

Juilo Urias has been used sparingly in the Dodgers rotation here in the second half. His last start (9.13) saw him toss 3 2/3 scoreless innings at Yankee Stadium (allowed only four hits). Before that (on 9.2), he held this San Diego lineup to just two runs and three hits in 5 1/3 IP. He has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of his six second half starts so far, which is a good sign. He'll be facing a lineup that is not known for scoring a ton of runs. In fact, the Padres should feel fortunate to even rank 21st in runs scored as they are 28th in slugging (.390) and dead last in both team batting average (.234) and OBP (.299). Thus, the 13 runs they've scored so far in this series certainly should be taken with a grain of salt.

San Diego starter Christian Friedrich takes the mound this evening having posted strong numbers of late (2.84 ERA, 0.895 WHIP). But he has not fared well against Los Angeles this year (6.39 ERA in three stars) or in his entire career for that matter (7.32 ERA in 13 appearances). I mentioned earlier that the Padres are 0-5 this year when on a three-game win streak, well, they are just 24-42 off one win. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 40-28 off a loss. Again, they really need to start winning games down the stretch here as they trail Washington (who lost yday) by two games in the chase for homefield advantage in that LDS matchup. I call for the better team to assert itself on Thursday. 8* LA Dodgers

8* Kansas City (7:15 ET): The Royals were officially eliminated from playoff contention yday, but as per usual are playing well "this time of year." They've now won four in a row following yday's 5-2 victory. Of course, it helps drawing the horrible Twins as an opponent. Minnesota has been the "gift that keeps on giving" this season as they started in an 0-9 hole, which proved to be insurmountable. There was a brief attempt at a midseason resurgence, but now the team is  56-102 w/ a -173 run differential, which is easily the AL's worst. Somewhat incredibly, they are just 10-36 their last 46 games, including a horrible September that has seen them drop 10 of their last 11. I can't really see any reason NOT to go against them here as I imagine they just want this miserable season to end.

Yes, it has been a very disappointing defense of LY's World Series title. But the Royals remain a pretty safe bet at Kauffman Stadium where they are 47-30 overall this year, including 7-1 in the -150 to -175 range on the money line. Toeing the rubber tonight will be Danny Duffy, who overall has been their most reliable pitcher in 2016. There was a time when the only time they won was w/ him on the mound. Overall, Duffy sports a 17-8 TSR including 11-3 at home. He's yet to drop a decision here (7-0) where his ERA and WHIP are 3.35 and 1.116 respectively. Despite a rough outing in Detroit last week, Duffy remains in the Top 20 in net units earned among all starting pitchers this year. For his career, he has a 2.53 ERA against the Twins (11 starts) and he's allowed just four runs to them in two starts this year (12 2/3 IP) while striking out 14 and walking only two.

The Twins have been predictably terrible on the road this year (26-51), but here in Kansas City, things have been very bad. As in an 0-9 record! They are just 3-15 overall vs. the Royals this year and 10-27 against them since the start of last season. Starting Kyle Gibson is unlikely to turn things around as he comes in with a 5.04 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in 24 starts this year. He somehow managed to come out on the winning end vs. Duffy earlier this month (though neither pitcher factored into the decision). Duffy actually pitched better, but the KC bullpen had a rare meltdown. It also should be pointed out that Minnesota's offense has been held to three runs or fewer in ELEVEN consecutive games (scored just 21 runs total). This has all the makings of a sweep Thursday night. 8* Kansas City

10* Over Rockies/Giants (10:15 ET): Following a 12-3 win yday, San Francisco now trails the Mets by one-half game, but is a full game up on the Cardinals. Two of those three teams will meet in the National League's Wild Card game next week. It has been a bit of a precipitous fall for the Giants, who entered the All-Star Break w/ the best overall record in baseball! They haven't won B2B games since 9.15-9.16 (over the Cardinals), thus I can't endorse them here. But I do like the Over, especially after what we saw from the Giants offense last night, plus the Rockies have now allowed 10 or more runs in three of their past seven games. The Giants had 19 hits yday.

Pitching here for Colorado is Tyler Chatwood. He's done remarkably well on the road this season (1.88 ERA), yet the Under has remained a more profitable bet for him at home due to the high totals. He also has 15 walks in his L5 starts. After struggling at home (vs. San Diego!) on 9.16, Chatwood was a bit sharper his last time out. He allowed just two runs on five hits at Dodger Stadium (pitcher friendly), but the Rockies went on to lose that game anyway, 7-4. It was the fourth time in those last five starts that the Over cashed. Obviously, scoring goes way down in Colorado games once they exit Coors Field, but we're still talking about an average of 9.0 runs in their road games. That makes the O/U line for tonight look awfully small.

Giants home games average a solid 8.4 rpg. They counter w/ Jeff Samardzija, who was lights out the last time we saw him, which was last Thursday. He held San Diego scoreless over seven innings, but I'm betting that we'll see some regression here. The nine strikeouts he had vs. the Padres matched a season-high set back in May. Colorado's offense may not have done much lately, but they do average 5.4 rpg for the season when facing right-handed starters. Of course, with Rockies' pitching having allowed 44 hits the L3 games and 7.6 runs the L7 games, Samardzija won't necessarily have to be at his sharpest here.  10* Over Rockies/Giants

10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): I feel as if it's "been a minute" since we've checked in on the White Sox. That's somewhat for good reason as they are already assured of no better than a .500 finish, their fourth consecutive season doing so. But, they have been playing well of late w/ four straight wins, the last two coming here at home against the current opponent, Tampa Bay. Conversely, the Rays have now lost five in a row after the 7-1 loss Monday and 13-6 loss Tuesday. Those are hardly "close games," thus I think it makes a lot of sense to "ride the hot hand" here and back the home team. Note that it was a 13-3 game last night heading into the ninth inning. Chicago's offense produced eight extra base hits in the victory.

Miguel Gonzalez may have only four wins in 22 starts this season for the Sox, but there have been a ton of times where he has not factored in the decision. He rejoined the starting rotation earlier this month and made three consecutive quality starts. Then, he allowed five runs in Cleveland, Friday. That actually snapped a streak of nine consecutive quality starts dating back before his time spent on the DL and his second half ERA going into that last start was 2.96! He did not face Tampa Bay in the only other series that took place between these teams, back in April. It should be pointed out that Chicago is a much better team at home where they are 43-33.  

The Rays are heading in the wrong direction as their season comes to a close. They've lost five straight and eight of nine. Having Blake Snell pitch tonight probably won't help, even though he is coming off five shutout innings vs. the Yankees last Thursday. That was Tampa's only win in the last nine games, but the fact remains Snell has been pretty inconsistent as is evident by the fact his WHIP is still 2.083 his L3 starts despite the strong effort his last time out. His biggest problem has been walks as there's been only one second half start where he didn't issue multiple free passes. Overall, he has 50 walks in 86 1/3 innings pitched.  The Rays have just been a terrible road team this year (29-47) and have also scored the second fewest number of runs in the American League. This is a great price considering the respective current states of the two clubs. 10* Chi White Sox

10* Seattle (2:10 ET): This all-important rubber match sees the two teams separated by just one-half game in the standings (Seattle up), chasing Baltimore for the final Wild Card. Time is running out as the Mariners are two games back w/ five to play and would also have to jump the Tigers. Houston won here yday, 8-4, but I have not yet given up hope on the Mariners' playoff aspirations. It was looking like a second straight Seattle victory last night; that was until the Astros busted loose for a six run sixth. What hurts about that one is that the M's had Felix Hernandez on the mound. But they appear to have the edge in starting pitching again this afternoon w/ James Paxton and I'll throw my support behind him.

Paxton comes in w/ a 2.50 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he held Minnesota to only one run and five hits in seven innings of work, also finishing w/ 9 K's and zero walks. The start before that saw him face Houston. There, he allowed only two runs and four hits in another seven inning effort. Unfortunately, it was a hard-luck loss w/ Seattle coming out on the wrong end, 2-1. Still, Paxton has picked a great time to have this resurgence and I see him getting his revenge on the Astros today. In the daytime, he has a 3-1 TSR this season. Houston's lineup is hitting only .239 in day games this season. Since July 22nd, Paxton has allowed 2 ER or less in six of 10 starts.

Meanwhile, Houston's Doug Fister has not pitched well of late. He comes in w/ a 7.90 ERA and 1.829 WHIP his L3 starts. That is largely owed to one disastrous showing against these Mariners where he allowed seven runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Needless to say, the Astros lost that game, 7-3.  Overall, the team has lost each of Fister's last six starts. He has faced the M's four times this season and has a 6.86 ERA. Overall, I have Seattle graded as the slightly better team, so w/ the pitching edge they are justified to come in favored on the road for this one. They've gone 15-9 here in September. 10* Seattle

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This is an incredibly cheap price on the Dodgers all things considered. Despite having the NL West locked up, this team still has something to play for and that's homefield advantage in the LDS vs. Washington. Considering Dodger Blue's tremendous home record this season (53-28), homefield advantage is something they should be after. Their first opponent this week is lowly San Diego, a team w/ nothing to play for that's 24 games under .500 w/ a -79 run differential. While more competitive here at home, the Padres are just 8-20 in the +125 to +175 range on the ML at Petco this season and 9-16 here vs. the Dodgers since 2014. I can't see any legit reason to endorse San Diego here.

There has been a pitching change for the Dodgers tonight as Maeda is now starting. I like them even more now! The team comes in having won 8 of 10 and are off a thrilling win Sunday over the Rockies (fifth straight) that gave them a sweep and the NL West title. Over the L7 games, LA is giving up 2.3 rpg w/ opponents batting just .218. San Diego comes in batting just .212 as a team its L7 games. The Dodgers have won five of the last six overall meetings vs. the Padres and are 67% the L3 seasons (36-18) against them.

The Padres counter with Paul Clemens, who has pitched well of late. He's allowed only two unearned runs his L2 starts, but he's allowed five runs in his last two starts against division winners - Boston and the Cubs - and both of those games took place here at home. Another key here is that San Diego is off a win. They are just 22-42 in that situation this year. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Twins/Royals (7:15 ET): Defending World Series Champion Kansas City is technically still alive in the playoff race. But the team is very likely to be eliminated from contention today, win or lose. Thus, outside of the Royals trying to finish w/ a winning record, this series has very little meaning. Minnesota is the opponent and they've been buried in last place all season long. They come in w/ the worst record in baseball (56-100) and have - by far - given up the most runs. Only Cincinnati and Colorado are even within "sniffing distance" of the Twins' 864 runs allowed this season, which works out to an average of 5.5 rpg. The Over cashed in all three games of the previous series between these teams (earlier this month) and I think that bet is the way to go in tonight's opener as well. Take the Over.

Jose Berrios is set to toe the rubber for Minnesota here and that will greatly aid our cause here. The Over is 8-2 in Berrios' 12 starts this year (two pushes). That's largely owed to the fact he has an unsightly 8.88 ERA and 1.972 WHIP. Berrios often does not go deep into games. He lasted only four innings his last time out and gave up two home runs. He was lucky that they were both solo shots and that it ended up being only a 3-0 loss for the team. His L2 starts are the only Unders for Berrios all season, yet he still has a 2.057 WHIP his last three. He's faced KC twice in 2016 and allowed a total of nine runs in nine innings. That last start (which came in a NL park) marked just the fourth time all year that Berrios allowed 3 ER or fewer, but again, he also went only four innings.

Minnesota is by far and away the top Over team in baseball this year w/ a 92-56-8 record. There really isn't a single situation where the Over hasn't been a profitable bet w/ this team in 2016. Well, ironically, except for here in Kansas City where they've gone 0-7 this season and the Under is 5-1-1. But, again, the Over went 3-0 in the last series between the two teams. Starting here for the Royals will be Ian Kennedy, who probably should have given up more runs than just three his last time out, considering he also allowed 10 hits. The Royals' L7 games have seen an average of more than 10.0 rpg scored. Their offense managed 40 hits in the three games vs. Detroit. 10* Over Twins/Royals

10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays (7:05 ET): The stakes are high "North of the Border" in a potential AL Wild Card Game preview. Entering this series, Toronto sits in the pole position (86-70), but Baltimore is just one game back and close behind are both Detroit & Seattle (two games back of Baltimore). The Orioles are coming off a sweep over the weekend, but that was at home and against the D'backs. One key thing to remember when handicapping this series is that the O's have a losing road record. (They finish the reg season in New York). However, it's the total that is more attractive to me in this spot. The Under was a perfect 3-0 in the last series between these two AL East rivals and considering what's on the line this week, I expect "playoff-like intensity" and very few runs to be scored. Take the Under.

Both teams have been trending Under of late. Toronto is 8-2 Under its L10 games and in the last seven, they've allowed an average of just 2.3 rpg and an opponents' batting average of .178. Charged w/ keeping this trend alive tonight is Aaron Sanchez, who is 13-2 in 28 starts (16-12 TSR) and off a hard luck no-decision his last time out. Going up against Seattle w/ Felix Hernandez, Sanchez allowed just one run in 6 IP, but the Blue Jays ultimately came up short, 2-1. The Under is now 19-9 in Sanchez's 28 starts this year. Note that the L3 times Sanchez has faced Baltimore, he's allowed only 4 ER in 19 IP. The last two have both gone Under. While the O's are off a sweep, the offense comes in averaging just 2.7 rpg its last seven contests. I like Sanchez to hold up his end of the bargain here.

Baltimore has gone Under in nine straight. They counter w/ Kevin Gausman. Like Sanchez, the Under has been profitable when he starts this year. That bet is 20-8 overall when he pitches, including 6-0 his L6! Three times in his last five starts, Gausman hasn't given up a single run! He didn't fare so well the last time he saw Toronto, but pitched well here at Rogers Centre back in June. It was five straight quality outings for Gausman before running into Boston his last time out. The Orioles did have off yday, while Toronto lost here at home to the Yankees, which is a slight advantage. But, Under remains the way to go as the L4 meetings have all seen eight or less total runs scored. 10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays

10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): For much of this season, these teams have been "neck and neck," trying to fight their way out of last place in the American League West. Currently, the Angels are 1.5 games up, but according to run differential that gap should be even greater. The Halos have only been outscored by 30 runs over the course of this season while the A's are at -95 (second worst). Those respective scoring differentials indicate that the gap between the teams should be closer to eight games! Consider that LA actually owns a slightly better run diff than Kansas City, who is currently two games above .500! Another factor favoring the Angels here is that prior to yday's results, these teams were heading in opposite directions. They had won four straight while Oakland had lost five in a row. I'll back the home team in this one.

The primary reason that the Athletics seem to be getting so much respect from the linesmakers here is that they have Sean Manaea pitching. Over his L3 starts, Manaea has not given up an earned run and has allowed just seven hits in 14 1/3 IP (five walks). But I'm not buying it. Last time he faced the Angels (8.2), he gave up five runs in 5 2/3 IP. That's actually the only time he's faced them and it was a 5-4 loss. Keep in mind that Manaea missed the first two weeks of September w/ a back injury. He should not expect much support from an offense which failed to score a single run both Friday and Saturday at home against the Rangers. Overall, A's hitters are batting a collective .203 the past seven games.

That's got to be "music to the ears" of Angels' starter Jered Weaver, who has been in fine form himself of late. He's also typically a much better pitcher at home than on the road. This will be the 38th time in Weaver's career that he's faced Oakland and he has a 2.91 ERA and 1.099 WHIP. The starts this year haven't necessarily been great, but again, he's been better overall of late w/ a 4-1 record (5-1 TSR) his L6 starts and 31 K's in 34 2/3 IP. The A's easily grade out as the second worst team in the entire American League (ahead of only Minnesota) while the Angels are a middle of the road group, making tonight's money line an excellent value. 10* LA Angels

10* Under Brewers/Rangers (8:05 ET): Texas has already clinched the American League West, but there's still work to be done here as they are vying for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They enter the day tied w/ red-hot Boston (won 11 straight) for the top spot in the AL, 1.5 games in front of Cleveland. That's still not enough to get me to endorse them, however, even though this appears to be a favorable draw w/ a lowly National League team coming to town. I have stated my concerns with this Rangers team many times throughout the season as I must continue to point to their +11 run differential, which makes a 92-64 record seem awfully fluky. They lost yday, in Oakland, as well. Instead, I'll go w/ the Under here as I failed w/ the Over in yday's game (push). The Under is now 6-0-1 the Rangers' last seven games w/ an average score of 3.3 runs per game for both sides.

Milwaukee got held to just three runs in a pair of losses at Cincinnati over the weekend. They've averaged just 2.6 rpg their last seven contests w/ a team batting average of .206. In six of those games, they've been held to three runs or less. Theoretically, you'd expect their offense to benefit from the addition of the DH, but theory really doesn't apply to a team that's relegated to "playing out the string" right now. They'll also have to face Martin Perez, who has made four consecutive quality starts and has a 2.79 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in the last three. Perez has allowed just seven hits in his last two starts, both resulting in Unders, and didn't walk anybody his last time out.

This seems to be a really high number considering the recent lack of offensive production on both sides. Brewers' games average only 8.6 rpg this season and when facing a lefty, they dip down to 3.6 rpg. Meanwhile, the Under is 10-4 this year for the Rangers in Interleague play. Here, they face Matt Garza, who had allowed just 1 ER in three consecutive starts before giving up five his last time out. He's also been touched up for a lot of unearned runs his L6 starts (ten!) and it's not as if he's been giving up a ton of hits. Meanwhile, the Under is 2-0 for Perez when pitching at home vs. a NL foe as he's allowed just three runs in 11+ IP. Milwaukee comes in ranked just 25th in runs scored and 28th in team batting average. 10* Under Brewers/Rangers

6* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays have pretty much "put the Yankees to bed" this weekend by taking the first three games of this four game set. At the same time, that's clearly improved their own playoff prospects as they now sit 1.5 games ahead of Baltimore for the top Wild Card spot and are a full three games clear of Detroit, who is the "last team out" entering today. Considering recent form and their history here North of the border, I simply cannot see New York "getting off the mat" in the unusual situation of playing a series finale on a Monday. They've not only dropped 11 of 14 overall, but they are 0-8 their last eight games here at Rogers Centre. The offense has been virtually non-existent for Joe Girardi of late and that's a problem facing JA Happ. Home team should win big tonight.

Going into yday, the Yankees had been shutout in three consecutive games. No AL team had been shutout four straight times since the advent of the designated hitter in 1973! But all they managed Sunday were three runs and now they have to face Happ, who is a 20-game winner (23-7 TSR) that has dominated them throughout the course of 2016. In four starts this year, Happ has a 4-0 team start record against the Yankees w/ a 2.39 ERA. He comes in having gone 3-0 his previous three starts overall w/ a 2.65 ERA and 1.059 WHIP. Going back to the start of July, Happ has not allowed more than 4 ER in any start (3 or less in 12 of 14). He's allowed 1 ER or less seven times. The Yankees and their pathetic lineup seem like the least likely candidates to breakthrough against Happ right now. 

Did I mention that the Yankees are sending Luis Severino out to the mound? While Happ ranks near the top of the pecking order in net units, Severino is at the bottom. In fact, had he started more times, one might surmise he'd be dead last. The Yanks have lost all nine of his 2016 starts, the last one coming back on August 19th where he allowed seven runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Toronto has not yet gotten to face him this year, but I expect their bats to "tee off" here. His ERA and WHIP the L3 starts overall are 16.03 and 2.530. On paper, this shapes up as one of the biggest mismatches of the entire MLB season. 6* Toronto

10* Over Rangers/A's (4:05 ET): This series has certainly not gone well for Oakland as they've been shut out in both game so far, losing 3-0 and 5-0. For Texas, those wins have enabled them to stay a game in front of red-hot Boston (won 10 straight) and 1.5 gms ahead of Cleveland as the three AL division winners continue to compete for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The fact that the Rangers have a shaky road record (42-38) and a run differential of just +17 (Boston is +191!) keep me off them in this spot. Instead, I'll call for the A's to actually score a few runs today and for this game to go Over the total. There should be more runs scored today than we've seen in the previous two games combined.

Texas comes into today having seen their L6 games all stay Under the total. None of those games have seen more than nine total runs scored. But they are a starting a pitcher (Colby Lewis), who has a 6.90 ERA and 1.469 WHIP his L3 outings. Lewis has lasted only 5 1/3 IP in B2B starts, the last one coming against these A's. That wound up being a 5-2 loss for the Rangers as Lewis walked five batters. Lewis has certainly faced the A's plenty of times; this will be the 28th. So they should know him well. Keep in mind that last week's series in Arlington saw the A's score a total of 22 runs in the three games.

Two of those three games last week went Over. It was the finale that did not. Here, though I look for the exact reverse to occur. Making his fourth start for the A's will be Jharel Cotton. He's looked pretty good so far, but this will be the top offense that he has faced. Texas averages 4.8 rpg and is 46-38 Over following a win this year. I look for both offenses to have their best game of the series here. 10* Over Rangers/A's

6* NY Mets (1:10 ET):  The Mets suffered a rough loss yday. As a result, they are now tied with the Giants, one-half game ahead of the Cardinals in the Wild Card chase. The team they lost to was the Phillies. Given the stakes involved this final week, that can't happen. At one point, the Mets trailed 10-0 Saturday. They fought back valiently, but ultimately came up short, losing 10-8. Again, given the Phillies current standing, the Mets should not be losing to this team. Philly's YTD run differential of -152 is third worst in all of baseball. I look for the defending NL champs to bounce back Sunday in a game they have to have.

Injuries have taken a Mets rotation that was the envy of all (save for the Cubs) to a real "rogue's gallery."  Here, it will be Robert Gsellman, making his sixth career start. Ironically, the first came against Philadelphia. It didn't go well as he allowed 4 ER in six innings and the Mets lost 5-1. But since then, Gsellman has gotten a lot better. He's allowed just seven runs over his L22 IP, working out to a 2.86 ERA in the last four outings. He faced Atlanta and Washington twice during that time and in both instances he was better the second time around. Thus, I feel the pattern should continue here. Although the Mets' rally ultimately came up short Saturday, I think there will be a carryover effect from the eight straight runs scored.

Sunday will be the Phillies' final road game of 2016. They are just 34-43 away from Citizens Bank Park in 2016, basically getting outscored by a full run per game. This is a terrible offensive ballclub, so yday's 10-run output needs to be taken w/ a grain of salt. They are 30th in runs scored, 29th in batting average, 29th in OBP and 29th in slugging. Pitching for them here will be Jake Thompson, who has a 3-6 TSR, including 0-3 on the road (9.21 ERA, 1.842 WHIP).  Also of note is that this is a day game. The Mets are 28-18 in day games this year. The Phillies are 21-30.  6* NY Mets

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): The two also-rans from the NL Central are simply relegated to playing out the string at this point. Earlier this month at Great American Ballpark, the Reds took two of three from the Brewers. But since dropping the finale of that series, they've gone on to lose eight of nine (swept by the Cubs earlier this week). The Brew Crew took last night's opener, 5-4, a game they rallied from a 3-1 deficit and also turned a triple play. But Cincy still holds a 9-8 edge in head to head meetings this season. Their only win in the L9 games happened to come with the pitcher who is going today on the mound. Dan Straily again gives them the edge Saturday and thus this is a rare spot to back the lowly Reds, who had - before this losing streak - been one of the most profitable teams to play in the second half!

Straily isn't just the Reds most profitable pitcher. At +14.8 units for the year, he's currently tied w/ the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka for the MLB lead at the betting window! Consider that the team is 19-10 when he pitches and just 44-80 in all other games! His nine wins since the All-Star Break are tied for most among all NL starters. He has certainly had Milwaukee's number this season, going 2-0 w/ a 1.77 ERA in three starts. When he faced them earlier this month, he went eight innings, allowed only two runs (both on solo HR's) and three hits. Opponents are now batting just .220 off Straily for the year after he held Pittsburgh to three runs and five hits (6 IP) on Sunday. Again, that was the last time the Reds won a game.

Milwaukee counters w/ Taylor Jungmann and he simply is not a good option. He makes the jump from Double-A here, but has pitched plenty of times in the big leagues. Unfortunately, those efforts have not gone well. In his L10 starts here, he is 0-7 w/ a 9.35 ERA. He has been out of the rotation since April. In that first month of the season, the team lost four of his five starts overall. In three of the five starts, he finished w/ more walks than strikeouts, which is never good. Note that he was then demoted to Triple-A and struggled there as well, going 1-3 w/ a 9.87 ERA! That landed him down at Double-A where things did get better for him, but again, it's a big jump going from Double-A to the big leagues, even if the opponent is the last place Reds. WIth Cincy having its best pitcher go up against a shaky spot in the Milwaukee rotation, clearly this is a time to fire on the Reds. 10* Cincinnati

8* San Francisco (10:40 ET): Like the Mets, the Giants simply must take advantage of a favorable weekend matchup here as the other Wild Card competition (St. Louis) has to spend its weekend playing at Wrigley Field. It has been quite the miserable second half so far for San Francisco (24-39 overall). But they did win last night 2-1 over the Padres. The game was scoreless until the eighth when the Giants busted loose for four of their six hits. San Diego managed to put one on the board in the bottom of the inning, but it was not enough. I can't see any reason why the Padres would "circle the wagons" this weekend, thus even this very late start at Petco can't delay the inevitable, which is a Giants win. Believe it or not, San Fran was swept at home by San Diego earlier this month, so this series is a bit of payback.

Starting tonight for the Giants will be Albert Suarez. Even though he hasn't made it past the five inning mark since rejoining the rotation in late August, you have to feel for him having an 0-5 TSR over that time. That's because Suarez has allowed 3 ER or less in all five starts. In fact, he's yet to allow more than three in any of his 11 starts this season! One of those came against San Diego on 9.13 and he was a hard luck loser there. In five innings, he allowed just one run, but the Giants ended up losing that game, 6-4, in brutal fashion (allowed five runs in top of the ninth). So Suarez certainly did his job there and I think he can do the same again tonight. As a team, the Padres are batting a collective .193 the L7 games and have been held to three runs or less five times during that stretch.

San Diego is definitely "making it easy" on San Francisco this weekend by putting out a lineup that makes them the equivalent of a "Quadruple-A ballclub" in my opinion. There are a ton of recent callups on skipper Andy Green's card. However, on the mound, will be the veteran Edwin Jackson and he got rocked his last time out. Granted, the eight runs allowed came at Coors Field, but we're still looking at a pitcher w/ a 6.02 ERA and 1.582 WHIP for the season. His 11 starts have seen him give up 5+ runs five different times. This series sets up as a potential sweep for the road team. 8* San Francisco

8* Under Royals/Tigers (7:10 ET): The playoff dreams of Kansas City, the two time reigning AL Champs and LY's World Series winner, are all but dead. Getting swept in Cleveland officially eliminated them from the division race and now they're 5.5 gms back for the Wild Card w/ only nine left to play. That Indians sweep of the Royals also pretty much ended any hope Detroit had of winning the Central as they remain seven back of the Tribe w/ 10 to play. However, they did sweep the Twins in the previous series, including a doubleheader yday, and are now in position to get that second Wild Card as they have a half game lead on Baltimore. There are also two teams (Houston & Seattle) within two games and another (Yankees) within three. Thus, the stakes remain high this weekend in the Motor City and I'm calling for the series opener to stay Under the total.

Tonight's pitching matchup features two of the most profitable hurlers to bet on in all of baseball. Detroit's Michael Fulmer is in the top 10 at +11.2 units for the year. He's off a rough outing in Cleveland (exactly one week ago), but has yet to have B2B poor outings this season. In fact, there has yet to be B2B outings where Fulmer has allowed more than 3 ER. At home, his WHIP is 0.966 and the Under is 5-2. He has faced KC three times this season and has a 2.75 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in those outings w/ the Under cashing in each of the last two. The last one came three weeks ago as he allowed just 3 ER in 6 IP (Tigers lost 5-2). Tigers pitching has allowed two runs or fewer in four of the last five games and opponents are batting just .216 against them the L7. I think Fulmer can keep that trend going against a KC lineup that has been w/o some key contributors for some time now.

Without question, Danny Duffy has been the Royals most reliable starter in 2016. He's 12-2 in 24 starts (17-7 TSR) and there was a time when the team only won when he was pitching. His L3 starts have all gone Over, but that's only because either the bullpen allowed additional runs or the offense uncharacteristically showed up. Last time out, it was the latter in a 10-3 win over the White Sox where Duffy went seven strong innings. But in the Cleveland series, KC's offense managed only six runs total in three games. Overall, Duffy has allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his previous 12 starts. He has 181 strikeouts on the year. This will be his fifth time facing the Tigers and while the previous four have brought mixed results, the last time he pitched here at Comerica Park, he allowed just one run and three hits in 7 2/3 IP! Every game in the series w/ the Indians went Under for the Royals. 8* Under Royals/Tigers

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Lady luck appears to be on the Mets' collective shoulder right now as last night saw them pull out a game in stunning fashion. After blowing a 4-3 lead in the top of the eighth, they managed to tie the game up in the bottom of the ninth w/ a Jose Reyes' home run. Then, after giving up two runs in the top of the 11th, Asdrubal Cabrera came up and won the the game on a three-run walkoff. The Mets had been 0-63 this season when trailing after eight innings prior to last night. They used a franchise record 27 players in the come from behind victory, which marked the first time in HISTORY that a team erased a pair of 2+ run deficits in the 9th inning or later w/ HR's. While there's been a pitching change here to rookie Gabriel Ynoa (Steven Matz scratched), I believe the Metropolitans still have enough left in the tank to beat the Phillies, whose -149 run differential is a NL-worst.

The pitching change should now gives us a more favorable line and that's great b/c we're also going with the better team. Yes, the Mets were just swept here at home by lowly Atlanta in the previous series. But last night's win may mark a turning point in their season. They and the Giants remain tied for the two Wild Card spots in the NL, one-half game ahead of St. Louis. With the Cards having to play at Chicago (Cubs) this weekend, New York must take advantage of a far more favorable opponent. The rookie Ynoa has made just one start and he allowed only one run and four hits (in 4 2/3 innings) against another weak opponent, Minnesota. Keep in mind that the Phillies are the lowest scoring team in baseball by a wide margin. They also rank 29th in OBP, team batting average and slugging. Ynoa also did look very good at Triple-A Las Vegas (12-5 record) and that's in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

The Phils had just swept the White Sox in a quick, two-game IL set earlier this week. But this team should feel very fortunate to have 69 wins this year as their run differential indicates a 59-win pace, which makes them the biggest overachiever besides Texas in all of MLB. Starter Jeremy Hellickson has looked sharp his L2 starts, but both came at home. On the road, he has a 4.08 ERA. Last time out may have been the best Hellickson has ever looked, a three-hit shutout vs. Miami, but considering it was the second straight start he threw 100+ pitches, I expect regression to take place here. His 7.58 career ERA vs. the Mets is his highest against any opponent he's started at least two times against. As a ML road dog in the +150 to +175 range, the Phils are only 3-11 this season. 8* NY Mets

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers are officially rolling. They just took two of three from the Giants in what was a critical series. That gives them a six-game edge in the NL West, which basically means they're winning this division. It's a division that includes a Colorado team that might be better than its overall record (73-79, +17 run diff), but park adjustments must be considered in this matchup. The Rockies, of course, play their home games at Coors Field, which is home to - on average - the highest scoring games in all of baseball. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is among the lowest scoring venues in the game (7.5 rpg). Thus, I give a big edge to the home team in this one as Colorado's offense is likely to take a severe hit.

Now the Rockies do have a pitcher (Tyler Chatwood) going that has a 9-2 TSR w/ a 1.77 ERA in road starts. But Chatwood's WHIP (1.136) isn't that much lower than the ERA in those road starts, so there's been some good fortune in accruing that TSR. I will concede that Chatwood did pitch well here back on June 6th. But he comes into tonight having allowed 6+ runs in three of his last four starts and one of those was at Philadelphia, who has one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. The last three seasons have seen the Rockies go just 85-151 on the road, including 32-42 this year. Chatwood has lost twice to the Dodgers this year, both times at home. 

I'm not going to even bother running through the numbers from Brett Anderson's first two starts for the Dodgers. Needless to say, they are ugly. But I feel that he can rebound against a team whose offensive production drops about two full runs per game on the road compared to at home. The Rockies are also probably a little "full of themselves" after beating St. Louis 11-1 on Wednesday. LA is simply the better team here. Note that Anderson hasn't worked in a month, so this can be fresh start for him. Even with the division essentially "in the bag" at this point, the Dodgers still have something to play for, that being homefield advantage in a potential LDS matchup with Washington. In their last visit to Chavez Ravine (July), Colorado was swept and scored just two runs in three games. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Over Angels/Astros (8:10 ET): A sweep of the lowly A's has Houston just one game back of Baltimore for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. This is an incredibly tightly packed race w/ six teams separated by 3.5 games. The Angels are absolutely not one of those six teams, so this is certainly a friendly scheduling stretch that the 'Stros need to continue to take advantage of. Not to "pat myself on the back," but I was extremely low on the Angels coming into 2016, thus I'm not the least bit surprised to see them currently sitting 20 games below .500. They did "upset" Texas last night, but prior to that had dropped 11 of 14. Houston is a dominant 11-1 in head to head matchups this year, including a perfect 6-0 at Minute Maid Park. That said, Over is the play here as I don't see either of tonight's starters as being particularly strong.

Michael Fiers is the starter for Houston tonight. While he owns an 11-4 TSR at home this year, his ERA and WHIP are 4.00 and 1.272 respectively. His last time pitching here, he allowed seven runs (in just 2 1/3 IP) in a loss to the Cubs. He bounced back w/ six shutout innings at Seattle Saturday, but I highly doubt we'll see anything close to a duplication of that performance. Fiers was the pitcher of record in the Astros' lone loss to the Angels this year as he allowed seven runs in just 3 2/3 IP back in May. In four career appearances vs. LA, his ERA is 4.92. Note that 18 of Fiers' 28 starts this season have gone Over the total. No matter how bad the Angels might be, facing Mike Trout is always dangerous. 

This series actually features two of the AL's best hitters, Trout and Houston's Jose Altuve. Ricky Nolasco is the one who will have to deal w/ Altuve tonight. Like Fiers, Nolasco is coming off a strong effort as he blanked Toronto for six innings and gave up only five hits. But I also anticipate regression w/ him. That last time out marked just the second time in nine starts that the Angels won w/ Nolasco on the mound (he was traded here from Minnesota in early August, part of the Santana deal). He has a 4.78 ERA this season. In eight career appearances vs. Houston, his ERA is 4.38. 10* Over Angels/Astros

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Over the past week, the Indians have done a great job at seemingly putting the division (AL Central) race "to bed." Dating back to last Friday, they've gone 4-1 against the Tigers and Royals. I had them in Tuesday's series opener vs. KC, a game they ended up winning 2-1. Yesterday, with Corey Kluber on the hill, they won another one-run game, 4-3 (outhit the Royals 13-7). That result not only dropped Cleveland's magic number (to win the Central) to 5, but it officially eliminated KC (now 77-75) from playoff contention. Therefore, there's a real question of motivation for the road underdog in this situation. Last year's World Series champs have been bad on the road much of this year anyway (32-45) and I've made the case many times that they're not as good as their overall record (-29 run diff). Cleveland is 12-3 on the money line this season as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Go with them.

Not all the news has been good over the last week in Cleveland. As I mentioned in Tuesday's analysis, they'll have to go the rest of the way w/o TWO front line starters - Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. That puts more pressure on guys like tonight's starter Mike Clevinger. I realize that he has not gone very deep into games, but in three September starts, Clevinger has allowed just 3 ER in 9 2/3 IP. He's given up just seven hits as well. That works out to a 2.79 ERA and 1.241 WHIP. The lineup he'll be facing tonight is not strong as the Royals have scored just four runs total in this series. Back to the homefield edge, Cleveland is 8-1 at home this year vs. KC.

Jason Vargas is the starter tonight for the Royals. This is just his 2nd time starting since coming back from Tommy John surgery. On Saturday, he made his official return and threw just three innings against the White Sox and gave up one run on two hits. In 12 career starts vs. the Indians, Vargas has a 4.70 ERA. The trouble for him here is that the Tribe are one of them top scoring home teams in all of baseball at 5.7 rpg. They are batting a collective .290 this season at Progressive Field. As a road underdog of +125 to +175 this year, the Royals are a lousy 8-25. 8* Cleveland

8* Over Giants/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The front ends of the respective rotations have kept the first two games of this series very low scoring. It was the much ballyhooed Bumgarner vs. Kershaw matchup in Monday's series opener w/ the Dodgers coming out on top 2-1 thanks to a ninth inning rally. But there was no ninth inning rally last night as they fell 2-0 in a game started by Johnny Cueto and Rich Hill. Tonight, it will be Matt Moore and Kenta Maeda, yet another quality pitching matchup on paper, though not as strong as Bumgarner vs. Kershaw or Cueto vs. Hill. So, I'm going to go ahead and project this one to finish Over the total as I think the two offenses will "wake up" following the last two nights of dormant production.

Moore is 4-1 his L5 starts, but has a 6.13 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in the last three. That's basically owed to one bad showing at Coors Field, but he didn't make it very deep into his last start (just five innings) and gave up seven hits and three walks (two runs allowed).  That game marked the last time the Giants offense did anything as they scored eight runs for Moore. I wouldn't expect that kind of support here, but they can't keep scoring two runs or less like they have each of the L4 games. Moore has dominated the Dodgers the last two times he faced them, including coming one out shy of a CG shutout last month. But earlier in the year, he did allow seven runs to them in just 4 1/3 IP. Maybe it won't be that bad this time around, but it won't be as good as the previous two times either.

Maeda has won both of his starts against the Giants this year, but in doing so, he's put a lot of runners on base (17 in 12 IP). Maeda rarely allows more than 3 ER, but he also tends to not go that deep into games. In fact, he hasn't lasted longer than 6 1/3 innings in any start since the All-Star Break. That leaves things up to the Dodgers bullpen. I look at the fact that the Over is 14-14 in all Maeda starts this year and realize that the 'pen has not been all that kind to him. The Over is 7-4 his L11 starts overall. Dodger Stadium is one of the lowest scoring venues in the sport, but tonight's number is too low. 8* Over Giants/Dodgers

8* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Remember what I said in yday's analysis about these teams basically being even, despite the (now-14 game) gap in the standings. Well, that's certainly not the case when Masahiro Tanaka is on the mound for the Yankees. Tanaka, his team's best starter by far, has turned in six consecutive quality outings where he's allowed 2 ER or fewer. One of the more impressive performances during that stretch came against these Rays on 9.10 as he allowed just one run on five hits in 7 1/3 IP. He also set a season-high w/ 10 strikeouts. Following that up w/ another strong effort against Boston, Tanaka now has a 1.90 ERA and 0.909 WHIP his L7 starts. He has NEVER lost to the Rays in seven tries (7-0 TSR) thanks to a 2.42 ERA and 0.724 WHIP. He is the difference maker in this one.

The Yanks kept their fleeting playoff hopes alive w/ a 5-3 win yday. They were coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of Boston over the weekend. A four-run seventh was all the Pinstripes needed on Tuesday and while that may have contributed to me losing my Under bet (Rays scored one run in bottom of the eighth to put it over), it's actually an encouraging sign for today. Gary Sanchez continues to be the talk of the Bronx w/ 17 HR's in 42 games. Now only 3.5 games back of Baltimore (who has lost each of the L2 days), the Yankees clearly have motivation here. I can't say the same for Tampa Bay, who might be better than their record, but they're also 22 games below .500 and done for the season. TB is 33-52 off a loss this season.  

We figure that the Rays will struggle against Tanaka tonight, but what about the Yankees against Alex Cobb? Well, in the past they have struggled against Cobb (2.13 ERA, 0.895 WHIP in 11 career starts vs. NY). But the Yanks have still won 6 of those 11 games and did get to him on 9.8 for four runs and nine hits in six innings. They won that game, 5-4. Cobb did follow that up w/ a strong effort in Toronto, just his third start since coming back from Tommy John surgery. It will be interesting to see how he holds up in these final two weeks of the season. Something else to consider is that Rays hitters have struck out an alarming 65 times the L6 games. 8* NY Yankees

8* Under Red Sox/Orioles (7:05 ET): Boston has come to Camden Yards and really taken control of the AL East race. With a pair of wins over Baltimore, it's now a five game discrepancy between the two teams in the standings. (Toronto is still four games back). I played the Under in Monday's opener, which like yday was a 5-2 final. In my analysis there, I talked about how run differential clearly says the Red Sox are the best team in the division as they are at +182 while the Blue Jays are +84 and the Orioles are just +21. That's been reinforced by the results of this series so far, but I still believe Under is the way to go here, especially w/ tonight seeing the highest total of the series.

I'm not sure why tonight's total is higher than the previous two games, given the identical 5-2 scores that have come in. Perhaps the oddsmakers are looking at the YTD numbers of both of Wednesday's starters - Clay Buchholz and Ubaldo Jimenez - but both have pitched well recently. Buchholz has allowed 2 ER or less in four of his last five starts. Last time out, he held the Yankees to two runs in six innings. This will be Buchholz's first time facing Baltimore since April and he's catching them at an opportune time. The O's have scored exactly two runs in four consecutive games. Also, the Under is 9-2 this season at Camden Yards when the O/U line is either 9 or 9.5.

As for Jimenez, he comes in w/ a spectacular 0.739 WHIP his past three starts. He did allow 4 ER his last time out, but before that had allowed 3 ER or less five straight times w/ four consecutive quality starts. A complete game effort vs. Tampa Bay on September 5th saw him somehow allow three runs on only two hits (only walked one batter). He's since gone 7 IP in B2B outings and while he did give up four runs last time (2 HR's allowed), he didn't walk anybody. The last four meetings between these two clubs have all stayed Under and 9 of the last 10 have seen 10 or fewer runs scored!  8* Under Red Sox/Orioles

10* Toronto (3:40 ET): Entering this very important series, the Blue Jays held a two-game lead over the Mariners in the Wild Card chase. You can now make it a four game advantage. Toronto has come to Safeco Field and taken the first two games, 3-2 and 10-2. They are now the top Wild Card, one game ahead of Baltimore. Crazy as it may seem, the Jays are favored this afternoon to come in and make it a clean sweep. This despite going up against Felix Hernandez! But King Felix didn't fare so well his last time out. As a matter of fact, two of his previous three starts have not been good. Early money has moved in on Toronto here and they are 32-23 in day games. I'm on them. 

I'm going to go back to a point I've made before. The Blue Jays, who were carried by a league-leading offense last year, are getting great pitching in 2016. Granted, the offense still ranks 7th in all of MLB in runs scored. But they've also allowed the second fewest number of runs among AL teams, trailing only Cleveland. Today's starter Aaron Sanchez simply loves to pitch "South of the border" (i.e. on the road) where he's gone 8-1 in 15 starts w/ a 2.71 ERA and 1.124 WHIP. His last start left a bit to be desired, but that was against Boston, who is this year's top offensive team. Sanchez has not faced Seattle this year, but did hold them to two runs in 6 2/3 IP in his one start against them in 2015. A blister issue that has plagued him in the second half has reportedly been solved. The Seattle offense has scored two runs or less in five of the past six games.

Three times in his last four starts, Felix Hernandez has given up six runs. That's not a good sign.  The one time he didn't was against Oakland, who is one of the bottom two teams in the American League. I look for King Felix's struggles to continue today. He has not faced Toronto this year, but has a 4.39 ERA in 15 career starts against them. I know this price looks very tempting, but if something looks "too good to be true," then you know what that typically means. One more thing to consider is that the Blue Jays have had a ton of fan support here at Safeco this week. 10* Toronto

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): I went w/ the Dodgers last night and while they certainly couldn't seem to solve Madison Bumgarner, they ended up prevailing anyway, 2-1. I'll take it and come right back w/ Dodger Blue yet again tonight. What a crippling loss that was last night for Giants' fans. As stated in yday's analysis, it has simply been a miserable second half for San Fran as they are now 22-38 since the All-Star Break. They had the best record in baseball going into the Break and now are in danger of missing the playoffs altogether! (They enter Tuesday tied w/ St. Louis for the 2nd Wild Card). The Giants' bullpen has obviously been a problem, but so too has an offense that produced only three hits in last night's loss. The Dodgers are simply the better team at this point.

Losing a game where your ace delivers seven shutout innings of one-hit ball is not good. In the final two innings, the Giants bullpen gave up five hits, throwing away what Bumgarner had done, and lost the game in the bottom of the ninth. It was the ninth time this season that the Giants lost a game they led after eight innings. That's a franchise record, by the way. The offense has been scuffling for some time now, particularly when they have RISP. In the second half, they are batting just .225 in that situation and in 47 of 59 games, they have collected three or fewer hits (w/ RISP). Last night's lone run scored came on a wild pitch after an infield single by Nunez, who then advanced two more bases after a steal and errant throw. So, it's been a real struggle to put runs on the board for San Fran, who has scored two runs or fewer in five of its last eight games (just three total in L3). This visit to Chavez Ravine isn't likely to correct these offensive issues; visiting teams are averaging just 3.3 rpg here at Dodger Stadium w/ a .218 batting average this season.

The Giants do have Johnny Cueto going tonight, but the Dodgers have Rich Hill. Since coming over from the A's, Hill has been awesome. His last three starts have seen him deliver a 1.96 ERA and ridiculous 0.436 WHIP! He did give up four runs in his last start, but that was in Arizona, a real hitter's park. His three starts before that, he didn't even allow a single run and that includes six shutout innings of five hit ball opposite Cueto and the Giants back on 8.24. Remember that on 9.10, he was pulled after seven innings despite having a no-hitter going in Miami. These are two teams trending in opposite directions right now as the Dodgers have won 18 of 28 while the Giants have lost 16 of 27.  8* LA Dodgers

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): After taking two of three from the Tigers over the weekend, the Indians have a seven-game advantage in the AL Central w/ 13 to play. That seems pretty insurmountable to me. Yet, don't tell that to the local press in Cleveland, which has declared the season "all but over" due to the losses of BOTH Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar for the remainder of the season. Those are big losses mind you and probably will hurt the Tribe come playoff time. But, for tonight, I'm not worried as they host a Royals team whose season is very much on the brink. Yes, KC did just win three straight over Chicago over the weekend (lost Thursday's series opener). But this has very much been an overachiever this season (-23 run differential), plus they've been a bad road team (32-43). I'm on Cleveland here.

Much more is going to be expected out of Josh Tomlin now that Carrasco and Salazar are done for the year. Following a two-week exile from the rotation, Tomlin returned Wednesday and gave a solid five inning effort where he allowed just one run on four hits. The team won that game easily, 6-1. Tomlin's last two starts against the Royals have also been effective. Facing them twice in June, he allowed just two runs in 13 1/3 IP w/ 9 K's and just one walk. For his career (15 starts), he has a 1.198 WHIP against them. The off day typically helps Cleveland as they are 10-3 this season in that situation. They are also 49-26 at home (11-3 when priced between -150 and -175 on the ML) and 61-36 in night games.

Kansas City goes with Edinson Volquez here and he has not been effective in the month of September. In three starts this month, his ERA and WHIP are 9.60 and 2.00. That's after allowing nine runs Thursday (in just 3 1/3 IP) to an Oakland team that simply is not very good. In 11 career starts vs. Cleveland, Volquez's WHIP is 1.764. I mentioned earlier that the Royals have been a bad road team all season. Well, that certainly includes games at Progressive Field where they are just 1-6. As a road underdog of +125 to +150, KC is just 5-17 this season. 8* Cleveland

10* Under Yankees/Rays (7:10 ET): I'd pretty much disregard the fact that the Yankees come into this series with a significantly better record than the Rays. While 13 games up in the standings, the respective teams' run differentials are virtually identical. The Yanks have been outscored by 19 runs this season, the Rays have been outscored by 21 runs this season. Now that all being said, I'm actually staying away from the side and playing the total here. The Yankees' season basically came to its unofficial end as they were swept in Boston over the weekend. But they go from facing MLB's #1 offense to a bottom 10 outfit (and bottom five in batting average and OBP). I love the half run we're getting over the key number of 7 here and hopefully the Rays are in position to win, so that we can avoid playing the bottom of the ninth. Take the Under.

A 3-24 stretch from 6.16 to 7.16 is what did Tampa Bay in this year. But they've at least been more competitive in September where they are 8-9. All games have been against division foes! They just played Baltimore tough (split) over the weekend where both losses came by just a single run. The Under was 2-1-1 in those games as well. Over the past seven games, the Rays are allowing an average of just 3.0 rpg. Tonight's starter Drew Smyly looked good in his last outing, allowing only two runs in 5 2/3 IP. That game, a 6-2 win over Toronto, stayed Under. I do acknowledge that Smyly's previous six starts had all gone Over, but many of those had come against top tier offensive opponents. In two starts this year vs. the Yankees, Smyly has allowed only three runs in 13 innings of work, striking out 12 and walking only two. In five career starts against them, he has a 0.813 WHIP. Remember that the Yanks are tied for 22nd in runs scored in all of MLB and bottom 10 in all four major categories. In six games at Tampa this season, they have averaged just 3.0 rpg w/ a .209 team batting average.

Conversely, the Rays average only 4.0 rpg at home (26th) w/ a .235 team batting average. Bad news for their already scuffling lineup is that Steven Souza, Jr, who was having a career year, is now done for the season (hip surgery). That's a big break for Yankees' starter Michael Pineda, who has admittedly had his share of struggles vs. Tampa Bay in 2016. But I'll lean on the fact that Pineda has looked better recently, including four shutout innings of two hit ball in his last start. I look for a low-scoring affair here. 10* Under Yankees/Rays

8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Because of the injury to Kershaw, there have been only two head to head matchups w/ Bumgarner this season. Kershaw and the Dodgers won both. The last was 7-3, here at Chavez Ravine back in April. Kershaw allowed only two runs and five hits in seven innings of work while Bumgarner gave up four runs and eight hits in just five  innings of work. The first was more of the pitcher's duel that you'd expect with Bumgarner actually giving up one fewer run, but ultimately coming up short. I think the key to handicapping this game and series though is not all about the starting pitching. Rather, it boils down to the fact the Giants have been in a complete free fall since the All-Star Break while LA has established itself as the team to beat in the NL West. With Kershaw on the mound, at home, and available at this (relatively) cheap price, I have no choice but to back the Dodgers. 

I, of course, do not intend on completely discarding the effect starting pitching will have on this matchup. Kershaw is 7-1 at home this season w/ a 1.31 ERA and 0.581 WHIP!  This will be his first time pitching at Dodger Stadium since rejoining the rotation earlier this month. Last time out, he held the Yankees to only one hit in five scoreless innings. His workload has been carefully managed since his return, but there was also a lengthy rain delay in New York Wednesday. I think we'll see him go longer tonight. That means trouble for the Giants. In 34 career starts vs. SF, Kershaw is 18-7 w/ a 1.62 ERA and 0.80 WHIP! Take Buster Posey and Angel Pagan out of the equation and the Giants lineup that will face Kershaw tonight has batted a collective .110 against him! 

Bumgarner has a 5.63 ERA in his two starts vs. LA this year and has not fared as well against them as Kershaw has done against his team. Lack of run support is a major concern for Bumgarner here, not just because the offense is going against Kershaw, but also because they were shutout Sunday and held to only five hits by St. Louis. Overall, they are just 22-37 since the Break. The Dodgers are 47-27 at home, allowing only 3.3 rpg. Bumgarner, by the way, has a 4.34 ERA his L3 starts. 8* LA Dodgers

10* Colorado (8:40 ET): I think that it's fair to say the National League has played out pretty much how we'd expected. The Cubs (already clinched), Nats and Dodgers are your likely division winners with the Mets, Cardinals and Giants currently competing for the two Wild Card spots. The rest of the Senior Circuit is basically playing out the string at this point. I anticipated a rather sizable gap between the "haves" and "have nots" in the NL this year with the likely "middle class" being comprised of only Pittsburgh, Miami and possibly Arizona. Well, the D'backs are terrible, but another NL West club has been a little bit better than I'd anticipated. That's Colorado. The Rockies just swept the Padres over the weekend (here at home) and while they're still five games below .500, they've actually outscored opponents over the course of this season. This is a good price on them at Coors Field w/ their best pitcher on the mound.

St. Louis enters this series off B2B wins over the Giants. That leaves them two back of the Mets and one back of SF for the two Wild Card spots in the National League. The Cards have had one of the better run differentials (currently +63) in the league for most of the year, but that number has taken a hit recently. They have been better on the road than at home, but this will be their first venture into Coors Field this season. Carlos Martinez will get the starting nod here and he just allowed four runs in his last start, a loss to the Cubs. Martinez has not fared well in the past vs. Colorado w/ an 8.04 ERA in six appearances, two starts.

I really like this Tyler Anderson for Colorado. I think he could be the front-line starter that this organization has never really had. At home, he's managed a 5-1 record w/ a 3.04 ERA, which is tough to do in this environment. The key is he strikes batters out at a pretty good rate. While off a bit of a rough outing in Arizona last Monday, Anderson had allowed just four runs total in his previous three starts combined (18 2/3 IP), giving him a 1.93 ERA. The Cardinals' offense has not been scoring much recently. Over the L7 games, they are batting a collective .186 and averaging just 2.1 rpg. They have not scored more than four runs in any of the last eight games. Look for Anderson to lead the Rockies (.307 team batting average and winning record at home) to a "surprise" victory tonight. 10* Colorado

10* Under Red Sox/Orioles (7:05 ET): It might be a "three horse race" in the American League East between Boston, Toronto and Baltimore, but it is the Red Sox that have clearly emerged as the team to beat in my estimation. Looking at their YTD run differential (+176), it far exceeds that of either the Blue Jays (+75) or Orioles (+27). Boston is off its first four-game sweep of the rival Yankees at Fenway since 1990 (I had them last night), which gives them the longest win streak in all of baseball (at four games). But two factors have me lukewarm on their chances Monday in Baltimore. One is that the Orioles' home record of 47-27 has to be respected. Two is that the Red Sox are off the Sunday night game, which puts them at a little bit of a disadvantage playing the following night. Therefore, we turn to the total and I'm going w/ the Under in this series opener.

These two teams just met last week at Fenway Park. Baltimore came in and was able to take two of three. Both of tonight's starting pitchers worked in that series and both had relatively strong showings, especially Rick Porcello for Boston. He went eight innings on Wednesday, allowing just one run on four hits, in a hard luck 1-0 loss. But losses, hard luck or not, have been few and far between this year for Porcello. He has turned in a remarkable campaign (22-8 TSR!), much better than anyone could have anticipated. He has a 3.12 ERA and 1.008 WHIP and every start but one since the All-Star Break has been quality! It's been 10 straight quality starts and his WHIP in the last seven is 0.77! Bottom line is that we should be able to count on Porcello holding up his end of the bargain in this one.

Dylan Bundy is a guy who pitches much better at home than on the road. Here at Camden Yards, he has a 2.67 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in six starts w/ the Under at 5-1. That's not a good sign for the Red Sox, who scored only three times off him last Tuesday. It's been awhile since Bundy has made it past the six inning mark, but that's okay b/c no one manages the bullpen any better than skipper Buck Showalter. David Ortiz is listed as questionable for tonight's game, which would leave a big hole in the Boston lineup. Baltimore scored only two runs in each of its last two games. With the stakes high here, this should be a low-scoring affair. 10* Under Red Sox/Orioles

8* Boston (8:05 ET): Red Sox are going for a sweep today and I think they'll get it. The Yanks spirit has been crushed over the L3 days, starting w/ the blown save Thursday. It was another Red Sox rally last night, the second in three days from a 5-2 deficit. New York had been overachieving anyway this season. They have a 77-71 record despite being outscored by 18 runs this season. Consider that last place Tampa Bay has a run differential of -23, yet is 20 games UNDER .500!  Boston, meanwhile, is pacing the entire AL in run differential (+175). A Red Sox win is the logical result tonight. 

NY will go w/ CC Sabathia, whose career numbers vs. Boston are not great. The hefty lefty is just 12-13 against them in his career w/ a 4.54 ERA. However, the current Red Sox lineup has struggled against him (combined .232 BA). But Boston is the top offensive team in MLB (825 runs scored), thus I wouldn't doubt them coming into this game. The Sox have scored at least six runs in every game in this series so far. Sabathia last faced them in July and gave up five runs in 5 1/3. I anticipate a similar performance tonight. 

Boston counters w/ Drew Pomeranz, who has faced the Yankees twice since coming over from San Diego and both times allowed just 1 ER. That's while going a combined 12 1/3 IP.  Pomeranz has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts but that's only because he hasn't been getting the amount of run support we're accustomed to seeing from this Boston offense. Yankee hitters are batting just .211 all-time against Pomeranz.  Break out the brooms for a Boston sweep.  8* Boston

10* Under Marlins/Phillies (1:35 ET):  Miami was embarrassed yesterday, losing 8-0 here in Philly. They were three-hit, not a "good look" for a team that has now lost 14 of its past 20 games and is six games back of the Wild Card. Their offense had been doing okay previously w/ seven runs scored in every game of the previous series (vs. Atlanta) and then they had 13 hits in a losing effort Friday. But still, I don't expect much offense Sunday afternoon. Nor do I expect much from a Phillies offense that ranks either last or next to last in runs scored, team batting average, on base percentage and slugging.  Them exploding for seven runs in the first two innings yday was a complete aberration. Take the Under here.

Pitching today for the Marlins is Andrew Cashner. I admit that some of his recent results have not been ideal. His L3 starts have produced a 9.49 ERA and 2.109 WHIP. But that's because two of them, including the last one, were bad. The one that wasn't came against these Phillies and saw Cashner throw 5 1/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball. That ended up being a 6-0 shutout for Miami.  Also, in his final two starts of August, Cashner allowed just two runs total and nine hits in 11 IP. Clearly, he's capable of pitching well.

Pitching here for the Phils is Alec Asher. A recent edition to the rotation, his two starts thus far have both gone well. The first, against Washington, saw him throw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball. Tuesday he allowed only two runs and four hits in 6 1/3 vs. Pittsburgh. These teams have now met 18 times this season and the Under is 11-5-2 thus far. There have been four shutouts in the L8 meetings alone and only one of thoe games have seen more than eight total runs scored. 10* Under Marlins/Phillies

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Given the teams involved, I did a double-take when I first saw this line. Immediately, I figured that Ervin Santana must be pitching for the Twins (he is) and probably Seth Lugo was going for the Mets (he is). Santana continues to get plenty of respect from oddsmakers, but the bottom line is that he's bottom five in baseball in net units (-11.5) thanks to an 8-19 team start record (w/ both Angels and Twins). "True to form," he's lost B2B quality starts. Starting pitching is important, but not the "end all, be all" and the gap between these two teams is too great for Santana alone to rectify. Remember, the Twins lose the DH spot from the batting order here (were shut out last night!). With a two-game lead in the NL Wild Card race, the Mets simply cannot afford to drop a game to this lowly opponent.

Before simply dismissing Lugo as the inferior starting pitcher in this matchup, let us take note of what the youngster has accomplished through five starts. He has a 2.27 ERA and 1.010 WHIP and has yet to concede more than 3 ER any time out. Most importantly, the Mets have won each of his last four starts. The last one came against a similarly overmatched opponent, Atlanta. Interestingly, the Twins now have a worse record than the Braves, so they have the worst record in all of baseball. They are definitely a bottom five team overall and the worst from the American League. At home, Lugo is definitely being undervalued in this spot. He was -120 on the money line for a start against Washington on September 4th! 

Santana, by the way, has a 4.76 ERA his L4 starts. So it's not as if he arrives in top form. He has walked a high number of batters during that time (12 in 22 1/3 IP) and also given up a home run in all four starts. Out of contention long ago, the Twins have smartly given time to their youngsters. While that's a good plan for the future, it leads to bad results in the present and sure enough the team has lost 22 of its last 28 games overall. They are only 26-47 on the road this season and are 1-6 following a shutout loss. They have given up - by far - the most runs in all of baseball (5.5 per game). The Mets, winners of 18 of 26, allow only 3.6 rpg at home for the season. 8* NY Mets

10* Under Yankees/Red Sox (1:05 ET): New York was robbed of a win and I was robbed of a winning Under play when Boston rallied for a five-run nine to take Thursday's opener 7-5. As far as playoff aspirations go, the Sox put a major nail in the Yanks coffin w/ a 7-5 victory Friday. That game went Over as well (this time I didn't play the game), so we've seen a small reversal of the trend that had seen the Under hit in 8 of 12 (8-3-1) previous matchups this season. Today, with the Red Sox big favorites and David Price on the hill, the hope is we'll avoid playing that bottom of the ninth which cost us two nights ago. I also don't see Boston scoring in the neighborhood of seven runs again here. Take the Under.

Price takes the hill Saturday afternoon in top form. He's allowed exactly two runs in four straight starts and has a 2.45 ERA and 0.682 WHIP his L3. Overall, it's seven consecutive quality starts where his ERA is 2.16 and his WHIP is 0.820. The team has won all seven of those starts, so again, the hope is we avoid playing those final three outs today. Price does not have outstanding career numbers vs. the Yankees, but I did have the Under the last time he faced then, and it cashed as he and Masahiro Tanaka combined to allow just four runs (NY won 3-1 on a Sunday night). Also, it's players such as Mark Teixeira that have previously given Price the most trouble. As we know, Teixeira is now a shell of the player he once was.

The Yankees will counter w/ a bit of an unknown commodity - Bryan Mitchell. He's made just two starts thus far. The first went well as he held Toronto scoreless over five innings (allowed just four hits). Last time out, not so much, as he gave up six runs in 2 1/3 to the Dodgers. But note that four of those runs were unearned.  Mitchell shouldn't count on much run support here as the Yanks are batting a collective .230 and facing Price. The Over might be 10-1 in Price's last 11 starts, but I'll call for that trend to come to an end today. 10* Under Yankees/Red Sox

10* Under Cardinals/Giants (10:15 ET): It should be a "playoff-like atmosphere" all weekend long at AT&T Park as we have a potential preview of the NL Wild Card Game on our hands. Night one went to the home team w/ the Giants prevailing 6-2 on Thursday. That win keeps them in the "pole position" for the WC at 78-68. Right now, their opponent in the one-game playoff would be the Mets, whom the Cardinals are now a game behind in the standings. San Francisco has had a terrible second half to the season overall though and St. Louis has curiously been better on the road than at home. Therefore, no side play here, it's all about the total as I feel Under is the correct play in tonight's contest.

Johnny Cueto pretty much dominated the Cardinals lineup last night, limiting them to only five hits in a very strong complete game effort. The final 17 Cardinals' hitters that came up to bat were retired in order (seven 1-2-3 innings). Over the L7 games, St. Louis is scoring just 2.4 rpg w/ an awful .165 team batting average. They've been held to two runs or fewer in four of the last five games. Thus, SF starter Matt Moore should still find success, even if he's not quite as dominant at Cueto was last night. Were it not for an outing at hitter-friendly Coors Field on September 5th, we'd be looking at a really strong four-start stretch for Moore. Last time out, he outdueled Zack Grienke as he held Arizona to just two runs in 7 IP (Chase Field has been very hitter-friendly this year) and finished w/ a season high 11 K's. Moore's final two starts in August saw him allow just one run in 14 IP.

Certainly, Luke Weaver still qualifies as a bit of an unknown on the St. Louis side of things, but the early returns have been pretty strong. In six starts, he's yet to allow more than 3 ER! He's got good strikeout numbers (7+ in four of last five starts) and the Under is 4-1 the L5 times he's taken the mound.  Before going for six runs last night, it's not like the Giants' offense had been performing well. They scored only five runs total in the previous series, which was at home against San Diego. So I see Weaver continuing his string of solid efforts here. He and Moore keep this one Under the total. 10* Under Cardinals/Giants

6* Texas (8:05 ET): One of the more surprising results this week in MLB saw Oakland go to Kansas City and sweep a four-game series, effectively ending the Royals' postseason hopes in the process. The A's are by no means even mediocre, let alone good, so count me among those surprised by what they did at Kauffman Stadium Monday through Thursday. Yesterday's 14-5 punctuation mark, their third win by 8+ runs of the series, really stunned me. But like I said, this is not a good team. I'd say only Minnesota has been worse this year in the American League. It's a step up in class this weekend for the Athletics as they travel to Texas to take on the first place Rangers. I expect the A's to come back down to Earth, starting Friday.

I've had my doubts about the Rangers all season, but they're going to win the AL West and make the playoffs. Right now, they are in line for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. (Remember AL has homefield edge in World Series due to stupid ASG rule). Texas' previous series saw them take two of three from Houston, on the road. At home, this team has been much better as is evident by their 47-22 record here (only the Cubs have a better home record). They are on a 7-1 run as a ML home favorite in the -175 to -200 range. A nice edge for the Rangers here is they had Thursday off while Oakland did not.

Another edge Texas has tonight is Cole Hamels. After B2B poor efforts vs. Seattle, the southpaw rebounded by holding the Angels to two runs on four hits last Saturday. Those two games vs. Seattle mark the only starts since the All-Star Break where Hamels has allowed more than 3 ER. So he'll be just fine here. Oakland is just 16-23 when facing a southpaw starter this year (4.0 rpg). In three lifetime starts, Hamels ERA vs. the A's is 2.18. Meanwhile, a Rangers offense that already averages 5.5 rpg at home should simply "tee off" against Oakland's Kendall Graveman, who allowed eight runs in his last start. Two starts last year vs. Texas produced a 7.84 ERA and 1.742 WHIP for Graveman. The last time these teams met, it was a Rangers sweep (here in Arlington) and I for one would not be surprised if history repeated itself this weekend. 6* Texas

8* Under Rays/Orioles (7:05 ET): The Rays beat the Orioles yday, knocking them back into a tie with Toronto for second place in the American League East (teams would play in the Wild Card Game if reg season ended today). I wasn't too surprised to see TB take last night's series opener as run differential says this is an underrated team. Despite being 20 games below .500, the Rays have only been outscored by 23 runs over the course of the season. Based on that run differential, you'd expect them to have 70 wins in the bag (actual win total is 63). That negative difference of -7 is the largest gap between expected and actual wins in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Baltimore has overachieved based on their only +28 run differential. They're 14 games above .500, but you'd "expect" them to only be six games over.

That all being said, I'm staying away from the side tonight as TB may have "gotten their win" last night and Baltimore's home record (45-26) is still to be respected. Instead, let's look at the total. Last night's game featured 13 runs scored (7-6 final), but based on the recent efforts of tonight's two starting pitchers, I'd be surprised if we see half that number in tonight's game. Chris Archer goes for the Rays and his TSR of 9-21 is highly misleading as he actually ranks 4th in the American League w/ 218 strikeouts. Last time out, it was a hard luck loss for him (against the Yankees) as he allowed just three runs on four hits (did give up B2B homers). Through the first five innings, he'd allowed just one hit. He's allowed five or fewer hits in five consecutive starts and has a 40-7 KW rate. He's allowed only 10 runs total his L4 starts, but that number should be way lower considering he's allowed only 18 hits (plus six walks). Archer's L3 starts have seen him turn in a 0.836 WHIP.

Baltimore's Ubaldo Jimenez is having his best stretch of the season right now. He's coming off four consecutive quality starts w/ a 2.83 ERA. Over his last three starts, his WHIP (0.75) is actually better than that of Archer! Last time out, he allowed only two runs and four hits at Detroit and the start before that was a CG effort against these Rays where he gave up only three runs (on just two hits!). In seven career starts vs. TB, Jiminez has a 2.89 ERA and 1.136 WHIP. Archer didn't pitch in the last series between these two teams, but earlier in the year did throw 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the O's. 8* Under Rays/Orioles

8* Toronto (10:05 ET): The Blue Jays are officially in trouble. Yesterday's loss to the Rays dropped them behind the Orioles in the AL East (now in third place) and they have only a precarious one-game lead over Detroit for the second Wild Card. Behind the Tigers are four other teams within five games. Therefore, a series with the out of contention Angels this weekend is a must win for Canada's only team. A sweep would be nice. The Angels were just swept (by Seattle) and have lost seven of eight overall. They are a team I was very low on at the start of the season (they were actually projected to finish .500!) and here they are, coming in at 19 games below .500. They scored all of two runs in the Seattle series. I'm on Toronto w/ J.A. Happ here.

Last year, Toronto "lapped" the rest of the league in terms of runs scored, but 2016 has seen them supplanted by division rival Boston in that department. Note the Jays still rank fifth among A.L. teams (8th overall) in runs scored. Underrated is the fact that they also are #2 in runs allowed (in the AL). A big reason for that has been the emergence of Happ, who has a 21-7 team start record after holding the Red Sox to just two runs and four hits his last time out. In terms of net units, Happ is among the top 10 pitchers to bet on in all of baseball (+11.0 units). Happ has NEVER beaten the Angels in six all-time tries, but remember what I said earlier ... this Halos team is not very good. They come in hitting a collective .172 the L7 games, scoring just 1.7 rpg. Happ has held opposing hitters to a .235 average for the year and should set a persona best for strikeouts in a season tonight.

The Blue Jays offense will face Daniel Wright, who has made three spot starts in 2016 (two while with Cincinnati) and none have gone particularly well. His LA debut came Saturday and he allowed four runs in 5 IP vs. Texas (allowed 2 HR's). After making only two starts for the sorry Reds, it's a real "sign of the times" that he remains in the Angels rotation here. Still winless, Wright has never lasted more than 5 1/3 and has given up 13 runs total in 13 1/3 IP. That works out to a 6.75 ERA and 1.650 WHIP. The Angels are 0-10 in home games this season when priced between +125 and +150 on the money line!  8* Toronto

10* Under Yankees/Red Sox (7:10 ET): A little over a month ago, one could have reasonably assumed that this latest edition of baseball's most famous rivalry would carry little in the way of actual meaning. New York was a clear "seller" at the trade deadline and thus there was no reason to really believe they'd be a factor down the stretch. But here we are in September and the team wearing pinstripes has caught fire with eight victories in the last 11 games overall. They did lose via shutout yday (2-0 to the Dodgers) after winning in shutout fashion (3-0) Tuesday. With the stakes so high and the teams so familiar w/ one another, I'm on the Under here. That bet has gone 8-3-1 in all Yankees-Red Sox games this season.

Boston also happened to be shutout yday as they lost 1-0 to the Orioles. I also played this team Under the total on Tuesday, which ended up being a winning ticket, as they fell 6-3 (total was 9.5). In my analysis two days ago, I made note that while certainly prolific, the Red Sox offense had largely been "feast or famine" of late. Tonight, I expect it to be the latter again as they go up against Masahiro Tanaka. The notion that Tanaka only pitches well when on five or more days rest is quickly being dispelled as the Japanese superstar worked on only four (days rest) his last time out and gave up one run and five hits in 7 1/3 IP. He also set a season-high w/ 10 K's. Over his L7 starts, Tanaka has a 1.94 ERA and 0.907 WHIP. His last five outings have all been quality as he's surrendered just five runs total in 33 1/3 IP. In nine career starts vs. Boston, Tanaka has a 1.132 WHIP and the last time he faced them, he allowed only one run and three hits in six innings of work.

The Yankees have seen the Under cash in 9 of 13 games this month after the respective shutouts the past two days. A big reason for that is a .219 team batting average over the last week. Facing Eduardo Rodriguez tonight does not appear to be a favorable matchup. Not only does Rodriguez own a 3.26 ERA and 0.879 WHIP his L3 starts, but the Yankees average less than four runs per game (3.9) against LH starters. The southpaw Rodriguez has allowed more than 3 ER only one time in his L10 starts and not coincidentally, the Under is 9-1 during that run. The Under is a perfect 6-0 all-time when Rodriguez faces the Yankees and he has a 1.88 ERA and 1.096 WHIP against them. He's allowed one run in 7 IP both times he's faced them in 2016, giving up just seven hits total. 10* Under Yankees/Red Sox

8* Detroit (1:10 ET): Minnesota did win a game on Tuesday (8-1), but overall the Tigers have had their number in 2016 w/ a 12-3 head to head record. That includes taking Monday's series opener (4-2) and last night's rubber match (9-6). They'll look to make it three of four this afternoon in the Motor City before heading down to Cleveland for a big weekend series. I like their chances a lot today. The Twins were arguably the first team to permanently fall out of contention this season as they never recovered from an 0-9 start. They are likely to go "wire to wire" as the worst team in the American League as they currently sit at 54-92 w/ a -143 run differential. Both are easily AL worsts. An 18-35 record in day games does them no favors here either.

Monday, I was on the Under in this series. That cashed, but despite not playing the total either of the L2 days, I'm a little bit surprised to see that Tigers' pitching has given up a total of 14 runs. This afternoon, things fall on Mike Pelfrey, who has not pitched since July 31st due to a bad back. All-time, Pelfrey does a 3-0 team start record vs. Minnesota (2-0 in '16). His last start did go well w/ him allowing no runs in five innings. That ended up being an 11-0 win over Dallas Keuchel and the Astros. Though Pelfrey might seem a bit shaky to you in this spot, rest assured that the Tigers are clearly the better team overall. They enter Thursday one-half back of Toronto in what is a loaded Wild Card race (seven teams separated by five games). Detroit can't afford to drop this one. By the way, they are 31-22 in day games this season. They are also 19-7 as a ML home fave of -125 to -150. Good price here.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has little reason to care here. They are 29-62 off a loss and hand the baseball to Hector Santiago, who has actually been effective in each of his L3 starts, but also didn't fare too well in his lone start vs. Detroit this year. Back on May 31st, he allowed six runs to them. While the Twins actually won that game (11-9), I don't look for their offense to be as prolific today as over the L7 games they're batting just a collective .222. 8* Detroit

9* Over Rockies/D'backs (9:40 ET): Take Colorado out of Coors Field and we know that the amount of overall scoring in their games will go down. Thanks to the thin air, their home games average a whopping 12.4 rpg. On the road, that average drops to just 8.7 rpg. But, put any team here in Chase Field and you're bound to see a high-scoring affair. Arizona actually allows a slightly higher number of runs per game at home than Colorado does (6.2 to 6.1!). As a result, D'backs' home games see an average of 11.2 rpg scored this year, second to only Rockies' home games. The first two games of this series, both Arizona wins, have seen totals of 21 and 15 runs scored. Might as well go with the Over again as the D'backs look to complete the sweep.

Colorado won't even have one of its better pitchers (either of the two Tylers, Chatwood or Anderson) on the mound Wednesday. Instead, it will Jeff Hoffman, whose four starts thus far have produced some pretty ugly results. Last time out was quite the odd statline as all seven runs allowed were unearned in what turned out to be a 14-1 loss at San Diego. The reason that they were unearned was b/c of a two-out error made by his shortstop. But he still did give up all those runs (in just 2 2/3 IP) and prior to that had allowed 13 runs in 15 IP! Not to be outdone, Arizona's Rubby De La Rosa lasted only two innings his last time out, which marked his return from a 3.5 month stint on the DL due to a right elbow strain. He'll be on a strict pitch count, which means we'll see plenty of the D'backs bullpen, which has a had a horrendous season to say the least (5.17 ERA, 1.540 WHIP).

Oddsmakers simply cannot make the total high enough when these two teams play. Tonight's marks the 19th and final meeting of the season. The first 18 have seen an average of 13.7 rpg scored with both teams right under 7.0 (Colorado 6.94, Arizona 6.83). Eight times the Rockies have scored at least eight runs off Arizona pitching in 2016, including Monday's 12-9 loss. Only once in those 18 games have they not scored at least four times. Arizona, meanwhile, has scored at least six runs in each of the L10 head to head meetings and have recorded 10+ hits in 13 straight matchups!  9* Over Rockies/D'backs

10* Miami (7:10 ET): On paper, it's a tremendous pitching matchup tonight in Atlanta with Jose Fernandez going up against Julio Teheran. But I feel the former has a big advantage going into this one. Fernandez may not be the same pitcher on the road that he is at home, but the fact he hasn't allowed ANY runs in three of his last four starts has to account for something. Teheran has been victimized by poor luck more than anything as is evident by a 7-19 team start record despite having a 3.01 ERA and 1.026 WHIP. Miami won yday here at Turner Field, 7-5, and while they're just 5-9 this season head to head with the Braves, Atlanta's 24-47 home record remains baseball's worst. I've got the Marlins here.

Fernandez did not fare well the last time he faced the Braves. He gave up nine runs (only six earned) in 5 2/3 and the Marlins obviously lost that day, 9-1. But, earlier in the year, he had tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball against them. That last start seems to be the aberration as in eight career outings, Fernandez has a 2.96 ERA and 0.910 WHIP against Atlanta. Remember that the Braves rank 29th in all of MLB in runs scored, not to mention 30th (last) in slugging. Last time out, Fernandez spoiled the return of Clayton Kershaw by tossing seven shutout innings of three-hit ball while matching a season-high w/ 14 K's. In 20 of his 27 starts this year, Fernandez has allowed 3 ER or less. There have been 15 times where he's allowed 1 or 0 ER! For the year, he's second in the NL in strikeouts w/ 238. 

Though Teheran has pitched well, the bottom line w/ him is that he currently ranks in the bottom seven as far as pitchers to bet on as that 7-19 TSR has resulted in a loss of 11.2 units at the betting window. He did allow five runs and 11 hits the last time he faced Miami. The big difference between his last start vs. the Marlins and Fernandez's vs. the Braves is that Teheran's performance was more in line with what we've seen throughout his career. He has a 6.00 ERA in two starts against them this year. Meanwhile, Fernandez's bad showing the last time was a byproduct of a career-worst inning that we shouldn't see a repeat of anytime soon. The Marlins are 4-1 this season as a road favorite of -150 to -175 on the ML, virtually all of those games coming w/ Fernandez on the bump. He was a -265 favorite the last time he started at Turner Field, so this is a great value!  10* Miami

10* Under Cubs/Cardinals (1:45 ET): Today will not be the final time the Cubs and Cardinals play in 2016. The long-time rivals meet again next weekend in Wrigley Field and by that time Chicago certainly should have the NL Central locked up. St. Louis' fate remains a far bigger question mark at this time. The Redbirds did win yday, 4-2, but still are one-half game behind the Mets and a full game behind the Giants for the two Wild Card spots. The Cards being at home actually DISCOURAGES a play on them here (just 33-40 at Busch this season) as does them having to go up against Jon Lester. Scoring has been scarce in the first two games of the series, therefore I'm on the Under for the rubber match. The Cubs have been held to four runs or less in five of their last six games.

Lester is a key ally for the Under play here. I played his last start Under the total and it ended up being a 2-0 win over the Astros. Lester threw seven shutout innings, allowing seven hits and he didn't walk anybody (7 K's). It was his EIGHTH straight start allowing 2 ER or fewer! During that time, he's allowed all of seven runs TOTAL (in 53 2/3 IP!) and is 6-0 w/ a 1.17 ERA. One of those was against St. Louis and he allowed just two runs and five hits in 6 IP. That game (Lester got a no-decision in 4-3 Cubs' win) as well as his five subsequent starts have all stayed Under the total. In fact, the L3 Lester starts have seen final scores of: 0-1, 2-1 and 2-0 for the Cubs. His ERA and WHIP in those games are a ridiculous 0.41 and 0.773 respectively. In 10 career starts vs. St. Louis, his TSR is only 5-5, but his ERA is 2.27 and his WHIP is 0.995. Remember that the Cubs have given up by far the fewest runs in all of baseball this season. They've held opponents to a .210 batting average! 

Lester will be opposed by Carlos Martinez, who has arguably been St. Louis' best pitcher this season. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts, a stretch which began w/ him being on the losing end of that aforementioned 4-3 game opposite Lester on 8.11. Both pitched well and I actually expect Martinez to be even better here as he has pitched well in the daytime all season long. The double play has also been Martinez's friend as he has induced an NL-high 32 of them this season. Cardinals' home games average fewer than 8.0 rpg this season. 10* Under Cubs/Cardinals

6* Toronto (12:37 ET): I've been on the Blue Jays in both games of this series so far and had mixed results. They won Monday, 3-2, but then lost last night, 6-2. This leaves them tied with Baltimore for second place in the AL East and in Wild Card position, two games clear of the Tigers. Meanwhile, the Rays are 22 games below .500 and officially eliminated from playoff contention. Thus, from a motivation perspective, there is no question as to who SHOULD have the edge Wednesday afternoon. While TB has been quite competitive head to head w/ Toronto this year (10-8 overall!), I'll reiterate that they are not a good road team (26-43) and this being a day game is a big edge for the Jays as they have compiled a 32-23 afternoon record.

Wednesday's scheduled starter for Toronto is Marco Estrada. There's no running from the fact that he's struggled of late. He's also 0-2 this season vs. Tampa Bay. But I have reason to believe we'll get a quality outing from him today. While winless this season vs. the Rays, Estrada does own a 2.43 ERA and superb 0.840 WHIP lifetime against them (five starts). So he's certainly "due" for better results. Looking back, 15 of Estrada's first 20 starts this season were quality. So I assume this has just been a rough patch for him. Mixed in was a recent effort where he held Baltimore to just one run and four hits on 8.29. I'm calling for something similar to that here. Last time out (vs. Boston) marked a season-low in IP (2 1/3), so he should bounce back.

Remember that Toronto is actually second in the American League in runs allowed while Tampa Bay is third from the bottom in runs scored. This price range certainly tells a story as the Blue Jays are 22-8 the L30 times they have been a ML home favorite of -175 to -200 while the Rays are 8-18 L26 times in the +150 to +175 range on the road. Alex Cobb will be making just his third start since returning from Tommy John surgery and it's his second time facing the Jays. While he pitched well the first time around, that was at home. He has a career 5.56 ERA at Rogers Centre. Toronto is 37-27 off a loss this season. 6* Toronto

10* Cleveland (8:10 ET): The Indians entered yday only two back in the win column as they try and chase down Texas for the best record in the American League. Unfortunately, Monday's results did not go as the Tribe had hoped. Not only did they fall 11-4 to the White Sox, but the Rangers pulled off one of their patented one-run victories (now 32-10 in one-run games TY!). An eye must also be kept on Boston here as they trail Cleveland by just two games. Tonight is a unique opportunity to get the AL Central leaders at 'plus money' (due to the pitching matchup). While starting pitching is obviously a key component in handicapping MLB, it's not everything and Cleveland has clearly been the better of these two teams this season. Take them Tuesday.

Realistically, the White Sox are not contenders any longer. They are one of just five AL teams to currently have a losing record. They'd just dropped two in a row to Kansas City prior to this series. While having Jose Quintana on the hill is what gives them the slight edge tonight in the linesmakers eyes, note he has pitched poorly his last two times out. He's allowed 11 runs in 11 2/3 IP and has given up three home runs. In terms of wins and losses, Quintana has not fared well against the Indians in 2016 as his TSR is 0-3 and the year long story of no run support has been in full effect as his offense has supplied him with only six runs in those three games. One night after scoring 11 runs, I expect the White Sox lineup to regress severely. The team has lost the last five times after it scored 10+ runs the previous game.

Trevor Bauer will pitch tonight for the Indians. Over his L7 starts, he is 4-1 (6-1 TSR) w/ a 3.30 ERA and 1.114 WHIP. That's despite a subpar effort his last time out where he still got the win over Houston. Prior to that he'd allowed 3 ER or less in five of six starts. The last time Bauer faced the White Sox, he beat Quintana thanks to allowing only one run and four hits in 7 IP. That's actually the ONLY time he has faced them in 2016. For his career, he has a 6-2 TSR vs. Chicago w/ a 3.21 ERA and 1.280 WHIP. I like the better team to bounce back from a loss in yday's series opener. 10* Cleveland

10* Under Orioles/Red Sox (7:10 ET): The home team won in a rout Monday, 12-2, thereby increasing its lead over Baltimore to three full games in the American League East. This is the tightest knit division in the sport right now w/ four teams separated by just five games. But, to me, Boston has clearly emerged as the best of the bunch. Thanks to the #1 offense in the sport, their YTD run differential of +183 is easily an American League best and is probably a sign that more positive results are on the horizon. For Tuesday, however, I'm laying off the side and turning my attention to the total. Following the Red Sox offensive outburst last night, I feel there's some substantial value on the Under given the pitching matchup.

Boston has scored double digit runs in half of its previous ten games, which is just awesome. They've scored a total of 38 runs the L4 games alone with 11+ in each of their three victories. But it should be pointed out that they were held to only two in the one loss. It's interesting in that it's been very "feast or famine" at the plate for them during this 7-3 stretch as they've scored a total of three runs in the three losses. Tonight's starter Drew Pomeranz has seen 20 of his 27 starts this year stay Under and that includes the vast majority of them since coming over from San Diego. The Under is 8-1 his L9 outings including a perfect 5-0 the last five. He's allowed 2 ER or less seven times in that nine-start stretch and at the same time the prolific Boston offense never seems to score for him. They have not scored more than four runs in any of those last nine Pomeranz' starts!

Dylan Bundy will get the call for Baltimore as he looks to bounce back from a second disappointing showing in the L3 outings. He allowed five runs in a loss to Tampa Bay last Wednesday, but the start before that one he didn't allow any runs (in 5 2/3 IP). Bundy's 1st time facing Boston didn't go particularly well, but note the 8-1 loss had a total of 8.5, so the value becomes apparent when checking the current line. The O's are actually a top four Under team in all of baseball (76-64-3 in all games) and that includes a 60% mark in division tilts (35-23-2). 10* Under Orioles/Red Sox

5* Toronto (7:05 ET): Monday may not have been a perfect result for the Blue Jays (as the Red Sox won as well), but with both the Orioles and Yankees dropping games, it was pretty good. I was on the Jays, so I was certainly left happy. They beat the Rays 3-2 in somewhat of a spirited opener (benches cleared) and as indicated by the somewhat sizable money line here, I think they can win fairly easily again tonight. While competitive (run diff of only -35, despite being 23 games under .500), Tampa Bay is the one team in the AL East w/o a winning record, so that's a big bonus for Toronto drawing them this week. As I said yday, getting the Rays "North of the Border" is a real plus given their poor 25-43 road record. Go w/ the home team for a second straight night.

Tampa has dropped seven of nine dating back to a loss at home to Toronto on September 4th. Considering they're 23 games below .500, I do not anticipate an inspired finish to the season. They were officially eliminated from playoff contention w/ last night's loss. Tonight, they turn to Drew Smyly, who has struggled of late. Over his L3 starts, Smyly has a 6.75 ERA and 1.636 WHIP. He comes off B2B shaky showings vs. Baltimore where he allowed a total of 10 runs in a combined 8 2/3 innings of work. Smyly has pitched well in the past here in Toronto, including a pair of wins in 2016, but w/ a 5.60 ERA and 1.494 WHIP on the road for the season, I do not see that trend continuing. It should also be stated that TB is just 28-53 this season when taking on an opponent w/ a winning record.

Toronto is two games back of Boston in the division. A sweep here could be potentially huge w/ the Red Sox currently engaged with the Orioles. Though winless in his L4 starts, including a loss at Tampa Bay on 9.2, Marcus Stroman is a pitcher that I like a lot. He gets the starting nod here tonight. Last time out, he received no run support (literally!) as the Jays were shut out 2-0 by the Yankees. But Stroman had 8 K's vs. only 1 walk in that one and looked impressive. Fifteen times, he got a hitter to swing and miss. Run support has been an ongoing issue for Stroman, but provided he gets it here, he should have no problem defeating one of the lowest scoring lineups in the American League. 5* Toronto

10* Seattle (10:05 ET): The Mariners come off a sweep of the lowly A's and have won five in a row overall. But there's still plenty of work to be done here as they trail the two Wild Card teams, Toronto and Baltimore, by 3.5 games. There's also the Yankees, Tigers and Astros that they'd have to jump over to get into playoff position. So any kind of "let up" against the Angels here to start the week would be ill-timed. The M's have only managed to split 16 games against the Halos this season, but I've got them in the series opener here as it's not like LA is in strong form right now (had lost four in a row before winning Sunday).

Three times in the L10 games, Seattle has scored 11 or more runs. The first time was w/ tonight's starter Ariel Miranda on the mound. That was an 11-8 win over these Angels. Since then, they put 14 runs on the board against Texas and 14 runs on the board against Oakland. Pitching has also held up its end of the bargain, allowing three runs or less in every game during this five-game win streak. In his last start, all three runs Miranda allowed were unearned in an 8-3 win over Texas. He's actually been favored on the money line four of his last five starts, so this is a pretty good value. Seattle actually has the fourth best run differential in the entire American League right now (+39).

The Angels has not done much over the L5 games, scoring three runs or fewer four times. That lack of support would likely mean trouble for Ricky Nolasco, tonight's starter. Nolasco did throw a CG shutout on 8.31, but that was against the Reds. Then he faced the A's his last time out, so that's two last place opponents in a row. Nolasco did take a loss when he faced Seattle last month. I just have faith in Seattle staying in playoff contention while I see little life being in the Angels down the stretch. 10* Seattle

full analysis soon

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays did not have a good weekend nor have they had a good start to September. After dropping two of three to the Red Sox, they now find themselves two games in back in the AL East. Overall, they are just 2-7 this month. But the chance for a turnaround is now "on the table" with a visit from the last place Rays. Granted, I've made the case before that Tampa Bay is better than its record and that probably still holds true. But they'd dropped six of seven overall prior to Sunday's 4-2 win over the Yankees. Surprising is the fact that TB is 9-7 head to head vs. Toronto in 2016. That includes taking two of three on Labor Day weekend. But that last series took place at "The Trop." On the road, the Rays have been very bad as in 25-42. Go w/ Toronto here.

Typically, the Jays have been strong off a loss this year as they are 36-27 in that role. They'll hand the baseball to Francisco Liriano tonight as he looks to turn in what would be a third straight solid effort. On August 19th in Cleveland, all Liriano gave up was a single unearned run in six innings of work. One week later at Minnesota, he allowed only two hits in five innings, but somehow got tagged for four runs (did walk four batters). Interestingly, the Jays still won that game handily. This will be Liriano's first start in September, so he's certainly well rested. He has worked twice out of the bullpen recently. His last appearance saw him deliver two scoreless innings agianst the Yankees (allowed just one hit).

Toronto's offense at least woke up Sunday. They scored eight runs, but it wasn't enough to beat the Red Sox. It marked the first time in 23 games this year where the Jays scored 8+ times and still lost. Similar production should certainly be enough to beat the Rays, however. Tampa Bay comes in ranked in the bottom four in the AL in runs scored for the season. Toronto will face Jake Odorizzi here and the Rays' righty is coming off a terrible showing last Tuesday vs. Baltimore where he surrendered seven runs in only four innings of work. Odorizzi allowed four runs in 5 1/3 IP the last time he faced Toronto, which ended up as a 7-5 loss. 8* Toronto

10* Under Cubs/Astros (8:05 ET): As alluded to in the promo for this pick, I was on the Under when these teams played Friday night. That was a 2-0 win for the Cubs behind Jon Lester. The best team in baseball lost last night though and again it was low-scoring. In fact, the Cubs' last three games have all seen the winning team score two runs or fewer and they've been on the losing end of two of those. So with those results and the fact Jake Arrieta is pitching tonight, I look for runs to again be few and far between in the series finale w/ Houston. The Astros happen to rank near the top of the American League in run suppression as well. Their starter, Michael Fiers, has been much better when pitching at home this season. Take the Under.

Arrieta needs no introduction. Last year's Cy Young winner is having another excellent campaign, even if his numbers don't quite match 2015's production. He actually leads the NL in wins (16) and is top seven in both ERA (2.84) and WHIP (1.046). His last two starts have been uncharacteristically subpar, although the team was able to overcome him allowing six runs on 8.29 vs. Pittsburgh. That's certainly not the kind of result I'm looking for here. Last time out, he took the loss due to allowing all three runs (one unearned) in a loss to the Giants. Still, that game stayed Under and the last time Arrieta pitched on the road, he threw eight shutout innings of two-hit ball. Interestingly, that one start vs. Pittsburgh when he allowed six runs, he did so on only five hits. He's allowed just 11 hits total his L3 starts.

The Cubs, by far and away, are #1 in fewest runs allowed at just 3.4 per game. Opponents are batting just .211 against them for the year. The problem though is that over the L7 games, thei own offense is hitting a collective .190 at the plate. As mentioned above, Fiers has been much better at home than on the road this year for the Astros. Although it should be pointed out that he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in four straight starts and two of those came outside of Minute Maid Park. Road teams average just 3.4 rpg for the season here at Minute Maid. Make it a clean sweep for the Under in this series! 10* Under Cubs/Astros

8* LA Dodgers (1:10 ET): On Friday, the Marlins spoiled Clayton Kershaw's return to the mound by beating the Dodgers 4-1. Of course, it helped that they had their own ace, Jose Fernandez, pitching. Fernandez outdueled Kershaw and his 14 K's helped snap LA's five-game win streak. But Dodger Blue quickly bounced back Saturday w/ a 5-0 shutout and it appears as if all the key edges are in their favor for Sunday afternoon's rubber match. Miami didn't even get a runner on base yday against Rich Hill. Quite frankly, they were fortunate that he was pulled after seven innings. This being a day game favors LA as they are 27-12 in the afternoon while the Fish have a losing record. Yes, the Marlins swept the Dodgers early in the year at Chavez Ravine, but that was April and there's no doubt who the better team is now. 

Kershaw and then Hill's perfection has to have Miami hitters wondering "what's next?" What's next is Kenta Maeda, who has a 0.953 WHIP in 13 road starts this year. He's allowed 3 ER or less in eight consecutive starts, including just one on three hits his last time out, a 10-2 win over Zack Greinke and Arizona. So a lineup that's scored all of five runs in the L3 games looks to be up against it here. Again, it was just two hits for Miami yday and no baserunners against the starter, who was pulled prematurely. Over the L7 games, Dodgers' pitching has allowed just 18 runs total.

Miami will go with Jose Urena, who has been in the rotation ever since the All-Star Break. He's been okay overall, but remains winless at home due to a 6.00 ERA. He allowed four runs his last time out, here at home, and that was against Philadelphia. The Phillies are the lowest scoring team in all of MLB. Right now, it appears as if the Marlins' season is on the brink as they're two games below .500 and realistically have little shot at the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have built a four-game lead in the NL West. That 27-12 record the Dodgers have in day games is MLB's best.  8* LA Dodgers

9* Under Rays/Yankees (4:05 ET): Out of nowhere, the Yankees have clawed their way back into contention. Considering the team was such a "seller" at the trade deadline, this is a major surprise. But yesterday was their sixth straight win (all against division rivals) and they are 23-13 since the start of August. I could make a pretty decent case that the last place Rays, despite being 15 games behind the Yanks in the standings, aren't significantly worse than the Yanks. But as hot as the Pinstripes are right now, I'll be staying away from the side altogether and instead turn to the total. We've got two strong starters on the hill Saturday afternoon, so I'm thinking Under in this one.

The Rays go with Chris Archer. Yes, he has one of the worst team start records in the game (9-20), but he deserves better than that. He's allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. The one he didn't was against the Yankees, but in 12 career starts vs. the Yanks, he has a 2.52 ERA and 0.939 WHIP. His L3 starts overall have seen Archer turn in a 2.95 ERA and 1.037 WHIP. Last time out, he held a good Toronto team to just two runs in 6 1/3 IP. A 25-5 KW ratio during that time is another good sign. The Yankees are a bottom five team in runs scored in the American League and remember that they had been shut out in B2B games (by Baltimore) before this six-game win streak got underway.

Last night's 7-5 loss marked the ninth consecutive Tampa Bay game that went Over the total. The Over has also been a profitable bet in this AL East rivaly w/ it cashing each of the last seven head to head matchups. Nevertheless, I'm bucking those trends here. The Rays are also a bottom five offensive in the American League. Yankees pitching has been doing an outstanding job during the win streak as opponents are averaging just 3.1 rpg over the last week. They'll give the ball to Masahiro Tanaka tonight and he's coming off four consecutive quality showings where he's allowed just four runs total in 26 IP. Tanaka has NEVER lost to the Rays in his career w/ a 6-0 TSR, 2.63 ERA and phenomenal 0.732 WHIP. For the season, he is fourth in the American League in ERA, sixth with a 1.08 WHP, third in walks per nine innings (1.56) and fourth in KW ratio (4.84). 9* Under Rays/Yankees

10* Seattle (4:05 ET): Unlike the top-heavy National League, one could make a compelling case that all but four, maybe five, teams in the American League still have a shot at the playoffs. Considering that Oakland is certainly not one of the teams still in contention, winning this series and probably sweeping it becomes paramount for Seattle. The Mariners took Friday's opener, 3-2, and are now 3.5 games back of Detroit & Baltimore for the second Wild Card. They need to leapfrog four teams to get into that spot though (also Astros, Yankees). Friday was a good start and speaking of "good starts," the M's will have Felix Hernandez on the bump this afternoon. That should lead to a relatively easy win for the road team today.

King Felix is coming off B2B bad showings, both against Texas. The team was fortunate enough to win the last one, 14-6, as shockingly Cole Hamels pitched terrible as well. Overall though, Hernandez remains one of the top pitchers in the game. Prior to the two starts against Texas, he had turned in four consecutive quality outings. Obviously, Oakland is an opponent he's quite familiar with. He's 22-8 in 42 career starts vs. the A's (29-13 TSR) w/ a 2.67 ERA and 1.109 WHIP.  The last time he faced them didn't go so well, but there were also four unearned runs scored against him. The only other time Hernandez faced Oakland this year (back in April), he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. 

The Athletics counter with their top pitcher, Kendall Graveman. He's had a fine year and it continued w/ 6 1/3 scoreless innings against Boston on Sunday. But he hasn't fared too well against the Mariners this season w/ an 0-3 TSR, twice allowing four runs. His last non-quality start (8.13) came against them. Including yday's win, Seattle is now 5-1 this season in Oakland and 18-8 here since the start of 2014. As I mentioned at the outset of this analysis, the A's are one of the few American League clubs no longer in contention. Other than Minnesota, they've probably been the AL's worst this year. A -119 run differential is sixth worst in all of baseball. Overall, they've lost 7 of 10 w/ all three wins all coming by one run. Three times during that stretch they've allowed 10 or more runs and three times they've lost by six or more runs. 10* Seattle

10* Over Rockies/Padres (10:40 ET): Colorado is a team typically associated with high-scoring games due to playing at Coors Field. No team's home games feature more runs on a per game basis than do the Rockies at 12.4 and it's not even close (#2 is Arizona at 11.0). But because of high totals set by the linesmaker, the Over is actually just 36-32-4 at Coors Field. The Rockies' scoring dips rather dramatically on the road (by about two full runs per game) and as a result, the Under is 38-29-1 in such games. But last night we saw their pitching get bludgeoned by the Padres in a 14-1 loss that sailed Over the total. Petco Park has a reputation as a "pitcher's park," but because of low totals and the oddsmakers failure to adjust them, the Over is actually 84-59-6 here since the start of last season! I'm on the Over in this one.

Colorado will start Tyler Chatwood here and while he's pitched much better on the road than at home this year, he enters in off B2B starts where he allowed six runs. His last road start was against the Phillies, who are the lowest scoring team in all of baseball, and even they got to him for six runs in four innings. While Chatwood has a nice road ERA (1.82), his WHIP of 1.129 reflects a little good fortune in the number of earned runs allowed. Walks have been a major problem for him as he's issued 21 of them in his L6 starts, a span of just 33 2/3 IP. There were five of them in last road start vs. the Phillies, so he allowed 11 baserunners in four innings there. That's simply not good.

San Diego will counter with Luis Perdomo. He faced Colorado once this year and it did not go well for him. He allowed six runs in 4 1/3 IP as the Padres lost 10-3. That game took place here at Petco. After being held to only one run last night (had eight hits), the Rockies offense should have a bounce back game here.  In five home starts, Perdomo has a 4.71 ERA and 1.535 WHIP, which has resulted in four Overs. He allowed five runs in his last time out in a venue that produces the lowest scoring games on average (Dodger Stadium) in all of baseball. 10* Over Rockies/Padres

6* San Francisco (9:40 ET): Arizona has made a pitching change here with Rubby De La Rosa replacing Brandon Shipley. The move is immaterial to me as San Fran is going with their ace Madison Bumgarner. Now, I'm well aware of the tailspin the Giants have been in this entire second half of the season. Their 2016 has seen them produce the unusual dichotomy of best record in baseball during the first half (57-33) and worst record in the second (17-32). However, with Bumgarner taking the hill tonight, I expect them to get things going in a positive direction. Arizona is a great place for a total team turnaround for SF as the D'backs are an absolutely atrocious 25-43 at home this year. Arizona's -148 run differential for the year is inches away from being the worst in all of baseball (Philly is -150).

The last time Bumgarner faced Arizona was right before the All-Star Break when life was still grand for the Giants. He threw a complete game one-hitter that day as SF rolled to a 4-0 victory as big ML favorites. In 24 career starts vs. Arizona, Bumgarner has a 2.42 ERA and 1.096 WHIP. The last five times he's faced them, that ERA is 1.22. The fact that the big lefty has only a 17-12 TSR this season seems rather criminal given a 2.56 ERA and 1.038 WHIP. But this would seem to be the ideal matchup to bounce back as Arizona was just held to five runs and 15 hits in a three-game series vs. the Dodgers where they were swept and faced all rookie starters! Don't be afraid of this price range either; the Giants are 8-1 L9 as a road favorite of -175 to -200. 

There is simply no logical reason to expect the D'backs to be competitive tonight. Like I said, they return home after being swept by the Dodgers. It was a 3-5 road trip overall. But this is one of just five teams in all of baseball to have a better record on the road than at home. Not surprisingly, two of the four others are Philly and Atlanta, who also rank among the very worst teams in the sport (other two are WC contenders St. Louis and Miami). Arizona is only 1-6 this season hosting the Giants and while they were able to split a pair of games at San Fran at the end of August, they are just 2-10 the L12 head to head matchups overall. De La Rosa allowed five runs in his last start and is no match for Bumgarner. 6* San Francisco

8* Under Cubs/Astros (8:10 ET): I presume that Texas, Cleveland, Toronto and Boston are all going to make the playoffs in the American League. That leaves the second Wild Card up for grabs and you can count Houston among those teams in contention. But, fighting for their playoff lives, the last thing the Astros wanted to see on the schedule is this interleague series with the Cubs. Having dropped two straight and finding themselves 2.5 gms back of the Orioles, it will be tough for Houston to make up ground this weekend. There is no denying that the Cubs are the best team in baseball - by a wide margin - thanks to a phenomenal +221 run differential. But the Astros may have an "ace in the hole" for tonight's opener in the form of Joe Musgrove, who I think can keep Cubs hitters at bay. As a result, I'm on the Under here.

Of course, things will also be tough for the Houston hitters here as they must face Jon Lester, who has been downright filthy since the All-Star Break. The Cubs are 8-1 in Lester starts here in the second half and over his L7, he's turned in a 1.35 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. Over the last four, he's allowed 1 or 0 ER every time. He comes in off a CG effort against the Giants, whom he held to just three hits. The Under has now cashed each of the last five times Lester has taken the mound. None of those games have seen more than seven total runs scored. The last two resulted in a 1-0 loss to the Dodgers and a 2-1 win over the Giants. Not only is the Under 4-0 the Cubs L4 interleague games, but it is also 8-2 Under following an off-day. Opposing teams are batting just .181 against Cubs pitching the L7 games. Incredibly, they've held AL teams to an average of 1.9 rpg this season!

Earlier, I mentioned Musgrove as a key for the Astros and that is absolutely true. While the sample size remains small (only two starts), he does have a 0.73 ERA and 0.892 WHIP here at Minute Maid Park. Those two starts have seen him allow only one run on eight hits over 12 1/3 IP, which is very impressive. Yes, the Cubs get to use the DH this weekend, but they come into this series batting only .214 themselves over the past week. They've been held to three runs or fewer in four of the last six games and Wednesday saw them finish with only one run and three hits in a surprise loss to Milwaukee. 8* Under Cubs/Astros

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates have won B2B games after taking last night's series opener 4-1. However, they remain four back of both the Mets & Giants for the NL Wildcards and thanks to dropping two of three to St. Louis earlier this week, they're 3.5 games back of them as well. So there's definite work that needs to be done if the club's fleeting playoff hopes are to remain alive. Fortunately, this weekend's opponent is Cincinnati, who should provide little resistance. As I already mentioned, the Bucs won last night 4-1. They scored three runs in the first inning and that held up thanks to a fantastic outing from Ivan Nova, who delivered a 94-pitch complete game. The vast majority of the outs were recorded via ground ball and the Reds finished the game w/ only six hits. While competitive at home (34-37), Cincy is pretty much a disaster on the road at 23-45 (-11.4 units). Go w/ the home team again tonight.

The Reds come into this game as losers of five in a row and 9 of their last 11. Starter Tim Adleman seems ill-equipped to reverse the trend as he checks in w/ a 5.62 ERA his L3 starts, all of which the team has lost. He's allowed SEVEN home runs during that time span, which is clearly not good. Adleman's first big league start did come here at PNC Park (on May 1st) and surprisingly the Reds did win that game, 6-5 as +140 underdogs on the ML. But I don't expect history to repeat itself. Note Adleman has only lasted longer than five innings twice and has just two wins. Another issue for Cincy here is that OF Billy Hamilton is still out of the lineup.

Pittsburgh will also be starting a rookie in this spot. Steven Brault remains winless in four career outings, but he's pitched well enough to give me confidence that he gets the job done here. His first three starts were all out on the road. Last time out, he made his PNC Park debut and allowed only one run in five innings. So pay no mind to the fact the Bucs lost that game 10-0 to the Brewers as it certainly wasn't Brault's fault. The Reds are only 11-19 in games when facing a left-handed starter, so the southpaw should keep them at bay and lead his team to a third consecutive victory. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): Last night saw Texas took another one of those "bad losses" they have been all too prone to this season. They fell 8-3, which I suppose wasn't as bad as losing 14-6 in the series opener on Monday. But the bottom line is this team gets blown out far too regularly for my tastes and only having a +21 run differential w/ an 83-57 WL record is troubling moving forward. Consider that Cleveland, who is 80-58, has a run differential of +100. Seattle, 11.5 games back in the AL West, actually has a better YTD run differential than the Rangers! That all being said, I'm going to stay away from the money line tonight and instead turn my attention to the total. I say look for the Under to cash as neither team is going to be able to maintain this rash of high-scoring games.

Texas has gone Over in nine consecutive games. Six of those have come against Seattle. Four times during this stretch, they've scored 10 runs or more. But last night we saw the offense begin to curtail w/ just a three run effort against Ariel Miranda. All three runs came on one swing of the bat, a Carlos Beltran home run, that was only made possible by an error in the previous at-bat. The Rangers L7 games have seen an average of 15.7 rpg scored, which is a preposterous and totally unsustainable number. Tonight, they face Taijuan Walker, who quite frankly has not looked good since rejoining the rotation. But he did hold Texas to only one run on five hits earlier this year here in Safeco. I'm going to call for a surprisingly good effort from Walker in this spot. If Miranda could get the job done last night, so too can Walker.

Because they've played the Rangers so many times, Seattle games have also recently seen a scoring spike. Their last seven have seen an average of 14.5 rpg scored, again totally unsustainable. They've allowed 10 or more runs three times during that stretch. But, at home, they give up an average of just 4.3 per game for the season. For a fourth time this season, they'll face Derek Holland. In 20 career starts vs. the M's, Holland has a 3.56 ERA and 1.203 WHIP. That includes 6 2/3 scoreless innings back in April in this very ballpark. 10* Under Rangers/Mariners

8* St. Louis (7:15 ET):  The Cardinals enter Friday in a virtual tie w/ the Mets for the second Wild Card in the National League. Both teams are also just one-half game back of the rapidly fading Giants, who currently occupy the top Wild Card position. At this point, it looks like a three-team race for those two spots. Having lost yday in Pittsburgh, St. Louis can ill-afford to drop another game tonight, or the entire weekend for that matter, to Milwaukee. The Brewers have long been out of contention, so while they've won each of the L2 days (against the Cubs!), I don't see them ripping off any kind of prolonged win streak. The Cards are 11-4 this year vs. the Brew Crew and one has to believe they'll turn things around at home where shockingly they're just 30-37 for the season. The Redbirds' current run differential (+80) is third best in the N.L and sixth best overall in all of MLB.

St. Louis will have to face Milwaukee's top pitcher Friday, that being Junior Guerra. He comes in sporting a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and has a 7-2 TSR on the road. But Guerra's own record in those starts is just 2-1, indicating that he's had a little luck go his way. His ERA jumps nearly a full point higher away from Miller Park. This will be his third time starting against St. Louis this year and he's lost the first two due to giving up seven runs in 12 total innings. Neither game was particular close either w/ the Cards winning 6-0 and 5-1. Remember that this is the #2 offense in the NL that he'll be facing. St. Louis had scored 21 runs in the two games prior to yday's loss, not to mention had homered in 25 consecutive contests.

While recent results have not been great for Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals starter has pitched well in the past against the Brewers. In 21 career starts, he has a 2.73 ERA and 1.131 WHIP, including a gem back in July where he went eight innings and gave up only one run. That was here at home as was a CG shutout (13-1 KW) back in April. Though he did take the loss his last time out, Friday in Cincinnati, note that Garcia allowed only two runs in six innings there. The Cards' home record may be disappointing, but the Brew Crew are just plain bad on the road at 23-41. 8* St. Louis

8* Over Phillies/Nationals (7:05 ET): The Over got me last night w/ the Nationals, thanks to extra innings. They needed 11 innings to dispatch the Braves, 5-4 (O/U line was 8 or 8.5). It was the 11th straight game between the two teams to go Over the total. While it's another weak division foe this weekend for the Nats, I will be jumping aboard the Over in tonight's series opener with the Phillies. This is hardly a marquee pitching matchup we have on our hands Friday and also Philly road games are among the highest scoring in the league at 9.1 runs per. They're likely to do a little more damage offensively after being shut out yday (by Miami) and Washington should have no problems scoring runs in this game either. Take the Over.

"Asher got his butt handed to him last year."  Asher is Alec Asher, tonight's starter for the Phillies. That quote comes by way of manager Pete Mackanin and he's not lying. Asher posted a 9.31 ERA in 2015 and then things went from bad to worse as he received an 80-game ban for drugs. He has spent time this year pitching in Triple A. That 9.31 ERA was the highest ever for a Phillies starter that made at least seven starts in a given season. Here, he'll be facing a lineup that averages a healthy 4.8 rpg for the season. Washington has collected a total of 27 hits in the last two games. As mentioned above, every game in the Atlanta series finished Over the total.

Philly is the lowest scoring team in all of MLB, but they should get their chances today facing A.J. Cole. This will be Cole's fourth start of the season. While he pitched well his last time out, conceding only one run on three hits to the Mets (6 IP), he did allow a home run for a third straight start. Cole also could be left "hung out to dry" in this one as the Washington bullpen was heavily taxed last night, not just because of extra innings, but also due to an early exit from Stephen Strasburg. The Over has cashed in 10 of the Nats' previous 12 home games, not to mention it's 43-19-4 the L66 times they've hosted a team w/ a losing record. Similarly, the Over is 6-1 the Phillies' last seven road games vs. a team with a winning record. It's also 9-2-1 their L12 series openers. 8* Over Phillies/Nationals

10* Under Braves/Nationals (7:05 ET): As you might expect, the Nationals have had little to no difficulty in beating up on the Braves this year. Head to head, they're 13-2 against their NL East rival, which is not very shocking considering where the teams respectively reside in the standings. Going back to the start of last year, the Nats are now 27-7 vs. Atlanta, so this is nothing new. Obviously, the asking price on Washington at home tonight is very high, so we'll leave that alone and instead turn to the total, which I believe offers some value in Stephen Strasburg's return to the rotation. Because Strasburg didn't look so good prior to his stint on the DL, we're able to get a number that's a half or maybe even full run higher than it should be. It would be great if Washington didn't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth, thus negating those final three outs. That's always a boon for an Under bet. Take the Under.

In his three starts before landing on the DL, Strasburg allowed a ghastly 19 runs in just 11 2/3 innings. One of those poor performances did come against Atlanta as he allowed six runs on seven hits, lasting only 5 1/3. But consider that in two previous starts vs. the Braves this year, Strasburg had allowed just three runs in 13 2/3 IP. His WHIP is far better than his ERA, particularly at home, which is a strong indicator of positive future performance. The fact that the Over is 17-5 in all Strasburg' starts this season is a major shocker. He'll be facing MLB's second lowest scoring offense here (3.9 rpg), so that's a good way to see regression to the mean. Don't forget that behind Strasburg is the National League's top bullpen.

Atlanta has been scoring far more than usual of late. They came into this series riding a six-game win streak (matched a season-high) and have now scored six or more runs in six of the last eight games. But, for the reasons outlined above w/ Strasburg, I think their offense gets held in check tonight. Pitching for the Braves will be Mike Foltynewicz, who has a 0.966 WHIP his L3 starts. So he should help in the run suppression department as well. Atlanta's own bullpen has been effective lately as well w/ a 1.57 ERA and 0.802 WHIP. It helps that the first two games of this series have both been high-scoring. All the value is on the Under in this one. 10* Under Braves/Nationals

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians came into the series on quite the run. They'd swept their two previous opponents, Minnesota and Miami, and were a MLB-best 33-11 at home dating back to June 2nd (15-3 L18). Don't tell that to the Astros, however, as they've come in and surprisingly taken the first two of this four-game set. Monday saw a starter (Michael Fiers) with a poor track record on the road come in and deliver a surprisingly solid effort, holding Cleveland to just two runs. Tuesday, the Tribe looked to have a huge advantage w/ Corey Kluber on the hill and Houston having to scratch Dallas Keuchel. But one bad pitch from Kluber (3-run HR) essentially cost Cleveland the game. I can't see the AL Central leaders dropping a third straight home game, thus I'm on them again tonight.

As is often the case with Cleveland, on paper, they look to have the pitching edge for tonight's matchup. They give the baseball to Carlos Carrasco, who continues to rack up impressive strikeout numbers. He fanned 11 batters in his last outing, which ended up being a 6-2 win last Friday over Miami. I played him in that spot (on the run line) and he didn't allow any runs over 7 1/3 innings. He now has an absurd 47-2 KW rate his L5 starts overall. While he hasn't faced Houston yet in 2016, he does own a 2.13 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in four career starts against them, one of those being a CG two-hitter w/ 12 K's! Opponents are hitting just .228 this year against Carrasco, who has a 3.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. 

Meanwhile, the Astros are left to counter w/ Doug Fister, who was touched up for eight runs and 10 hits - in only 3 2/3 IP - by Texas his last time out. That was the fourth time in his last five starts that Fister allowed at least four runs (6.23 ERA). Those numbers may not be indicative of how Fister has pitched overall this season, but particularly concerning are his own strikeout totals of late. He has just ONE in his last two starts! That's what you basically get from Carrasco every inning. Another bad sign is that Fister has gone nine straight starts recording more outs via fly ball than ground ball. Houston has been hot, but I still trust Cleveland's 11-3 record as a home favorite of -150 to -175 on the money line as well as the fact that they're simply the better team. 8* Cleveland

8* NY Mets (12:35 ET): The Mets are now 5-0 against the Reds this season after beating them 5-3 on Tuesday. They can now sweep them for a second time this season w/ another win this afternoon. While Cincinnati has been "game" at Great American Ballpark this season (34-36), the fact is they've dropped 11 of their last 15 games overall and even w/ Anthony DeSclafani on the bump, it does not appear this is a likely place for them to "get off the mat." The Mets counter w/ Noah Syndergaard, who is on a major roll. The Mets remain just two games back of the Cardinals (in the loss column) and this is a game they cannot afford to drop. Fortunately, day games have been kind to them this season w/ a 25-17 record.

Syndergaard has turned in three straight phenomenal starts where his WHIP is a ridiculous 0.545. During that time, he's allowed only seven hits in 22 IP. First, it was eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball at San Francisco (W 2-0). Then, seven innings while allowing only one run on two hits to Philadelphia. Last time out, he gave up two runs on three hits, but sadly still took the loss as the Mets fell to Washington, 4-1. Of Syndergaard's 26 starts this year, 18 have been quality. Thus, a 16-10 TSR seems grossly unfair, especially in light of a 2.57 ERA and 1.118 WHIP. Only Kyle Hendricks of Chicago and Madison Bumgarner of San Francisco have lower ERA's among qualified starters and Syndergaard also ranks 8th w/ 188 K's. All-time, his TSR vs. Cincinnati is 3-0 w/ a 2.42 ERA. In the earlier series this year, he finished w/ a 9-0 KW rate in a 5-3 win where he was a -210 favorite on the money line. This price, by comparison, looks like a steal. 

Keep in mind that the Mets aren't just perfect against the Reds this year; they've beaten them 13 times in a row dating back to 2014. Coming into today, they've won 13 of their last 17 regardless of opponent. Charged w/ reversing these trends is DeSclafani, who is having a great year on a bad team. But he doesn't appear to be the man for the job given his 0-3 career TSR vs. New York w/ a 12.27 ERA. Last season, he gave up five runs opposite Syndergaard and that's simply too many. Cincy's -124 run differential is 5th worst in all of MLB.  8* NY Mets

10* Seattle (10:10 ET): Among critics, Texas is probably the most divisive team in recent MLB history. They very clearly have a talented roster and also own the best record in the American League at 82-56. But they also have a run differential of just +23 for the season, which works to an "expected" win total of only 71. That gap between actual and expected wins is the largest in either league. Monday saw them lose a game to Seattle (14-6) that had far more scoring than anyone could have anticipated w/ a pitching matchup of Hamels v. Hernandez. Seattle's run differential for the year is +21, almost identical to that of the Rangers, so the fact that the two teams are still separated by 12.5 games in the standings is misleading. I look for the M's to win big again at home tonight.

This series is all about revenge from the Seattle perspective as they were swept down in Arlington just last week. But Monday was the second time they beat up on Hamels, knocking him out in the second inning. This Seattle team has been strong offensively for much of the year as they are just two runs away from ranking in the top 5 in the AL in runs scored. Given that they average 5.0 rpg when facing a left-handed starter, I like their chances today facing Martin Perez, whose numbers on the road are not good at all. He has a 1-8 record in 13 starts (4-9 TSR) thanks to a 6.23 ERA and 1.564 WHIP. He's off a shockingly good showing, against Seattle no less, where he threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings. But given that he'd allowed six runs in B2B starts prior, regression should be in the cards tonight. Perez has a career 1.520 WHIP (nine starts) vs. the Mariners.

Seattle comes back w/ James Paxton, who like all Mariners pitchers didn't have a good game in the last series w/ Texas. But his career numbers against the Rangers (2.32 ERA) suggest a bounce back is likely and what's really interesting here is that even though Paxton has a 4-11 TSR overall this season and Perez is at 15-13, it is the former that has both the better ERA (3.83) and WHIP (1.364). I simply don't believe there's much difference between these two teams, thus the M's are being undervalued at Safeco Field. 10* Seattle

9* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am laying the 1.5 runs w/ Cleveland. The Indians were my last RL play and ended up destroying Miami Friday night 6-2. They'd go on to sweep the Marlins over the weekend, their second straight sweep at Progressive Field, giving them a six-game win streak. But they let me down last night, losing 7-2 at home to the Astros. Previously, the Tribe had won 15 of 18 home games and enjoyed a MLB best 33-11 home record since June 2nd. I'd say the odds of them bouncing back tonight are very strong, considering that Corey Kluber is going to be starting. Meanwhile, Houston has made a pitching change from Dallas Keuchel to Brad Peacoack, significantly weakening their chances.

Kluber has been as good as any pitcher in the league of late and is someone you have to consider taking every time out, in one form or another. Entering tonight, the team has won each of his L7 starts w/ him turning in a 2.27 ERA and 1.112 WHIP. As I've said before, his WHIP this year (1.051) is actually better than that of his 2014 Cy Young season. Each of those last seven starts have been quality as he's actually gone 10 consecutive outings w/ not only allowing more than 3 ER. Every time, he's gone at least six innings. In those L10 starts, he's held opposing hitters to a .216 batting average and .294 OBP, both outstanding numbers. In six career starts vs. Houston, Kluber is 4-2 w/ a 2.73 ERA.

Keuchel not only won't be pitching tonight for the Astros (elbow inflammation), he may not pitch again this season. That would be a huge blow to the team's playoff hopes and has to be a huge blow to their psyche. I simply do not think Brad Peacock is the man for the job here as he could only go 5-6 w/ a 4.23 ERA in Triple A. Last night's result obviously surprised me (I had Cleveland), but I have the Tribe winning this one big, by no fewer than a two-run margin. 9* Run Line Cleveland (-1.5)

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Don't look now, but the Yankees have somehow wormed their way back into playoff contention. Considering their run differential is not all that different from the 58-78 Rays, this is a complete shocker to me, especially in light of all the deals made near the trade deadline. Then again, tip your cap to skipper Joe Girardi, who has his team on pace to overachieve for a fourth consecutive season. I do not like them tonight, however, as I expect Toronto to bounce back from last night's 5-3 setback. The Blue Jays still lead the division (AL East) thanks to the fact Boston has lost each of the last two days. But they now have THREE teams within 5.5 games of them, so they can't afford to be dropping too many more games.

Before they beat Baltimore 5-2 on Sunday, the Yankees had been shutout in consecutive games by the Orioles. They didn't have a single extra base hit in that series. So it's not as if this offense has been firing on all cylinders of late. Phenom Gary Sanchez has cooled off considerably. Today, they face Aaron Sanchez, who held Baltimore to only an unearned run in a victory his last time out. Toronto has won each of his L3 starts and he checks in w/ a 2.88 ERA (which is tops among all AL starters!) and a 1.16 WHIP. His 13-2 WL record is #1 as well in the American League (16-9 TSR) and is mostly owed to his dominance on the road where he is 8-1 w/ a 2.62 ERA. Sanchez has started twice this year against the Yanks and been dominant both times. He's allowed a total of two runs - only one earned - and 10 hits in 12 2/3 IP.

New York counters with Luis Cessa, who will be making only his fourth start of the season. After a strong debut on 8.20, he's gotten a little bit shakier w/ each passing turn in the rotation. He's allowed four home runs the last two starts and put his team in an early four-run hole (which they were able to climb out of) his last time out. I feel that Toronto's offense is due to "bust loose" sooner rather than later. Note that the Jays are 9-4 this season, head to head w/ the Yankees. 8* Toronto

10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians have swept their last two opponents (Minnesota and Miami) and now lead the AL Central by 5.5 games over Detroit. It's a division that they are going to win, mark my words. While Tribe fans were ecstatic over yday's 6-5 walkoff win over the Marlins (payback for '97 World Series?), it left me w/ a bitter taste in my mouth as I had the Under 8.5, which looked like a "sure thing" until the ninth inning. The next opponent to come to Cleveland is Houston, who is desperately trying to get back into the Wild Card race. They trail Baltimore & Detroit by two full games entering today. It was also a one-run for the Astros yday, 8-7 over the Rangers, but they ended up allowing a ton of runs in that series and that's bad news for this trip to Progressive Field. I'm on the home team in this one.

Mike Clevinger will be making a spot start for Cleveland in tonight's opener. It's something he did twice in August and both times the Indians won, so I'm a little surprised at the price we're able to get here. I was on Clevinger back on August 4th when he took the mound here at home against Minnesota. At the time, the Indians were facing the prospect of getting swept by the last place Twins, but Clevinger delivered 4 1/3 solid innings where he allowed only two runs. He was even better the last time we saw him as he held the Angels to only one run in 5 2/3 IP. Manager Terry Francona will likely turn to the bullpen sooner rather than later again tonight, but that's okay as he didn't have to use a ton of relievers throughout the Miami series.

Houston will go w/ Michael Fiers and he's proven to be a much better pitcher at home than on the road. That's obviously problematic tonight. While he's 6-3 at Minute Maid Park (3.33 ERA, 1.198 WHIP), he's just 3-3 on the road (4-7 TSR) w/ a 5.80 ERA and 1.508 WHIP, ugly numbers indeed. Cleveland happens to be the third highest scoring home team in all of baseball, trailing only Colorado and Boston, at 5.8 rpg. They've won 15 of their last 18 games at Progressive Field and since June 2nd have the best home record in all of baseball at 33-11. This is just way too cheap of a price at home on a team that's as good as the Indians are. 10* Cleveland